2024.05.29 06:36 nerosighted Serial Monitor Print Issue
Totally lost. This code printed values, but when I uploaded it to the board absolutely nothing. Checked past iterations of the code that printed earlier and nothing still. Entirely unsure of what to do, any ideas? /* @Author: Maclab @Date: 2024-02-06 11:59:09 @LastEditTime: 2020-12-18 14:14:35 @LastEditors: AJ<3 @Description: Smart Robot Car V4.0 @FilePath: */ #include//#include #include #include #include "DeviceDriverSet_xxx0.h" #include #include "ArduinoJson-v6.11.1.h" //ArduinoJson #include "MPU6050_getdata.h" //#include "UltrasoundByWill.h"*/ #include extern "C" { #include "FinalTest.h" #include "FinalTest_private.h" #include "FinalTest_types.h" } /*Hardware device object list*/ MPU6050_getdata AppMPU6050getdata; DeviceDriverSet_RBGLED AppRBG_LED; DeviceDriverSet_Key AppKey; DeviceDriverSet_ITR20001 AppITR20001; DeviceDriverSet_Voltage AppVoltage; DeviceDriverSet_Motor AppMotor; DeviceDriverSet_ULTRASONIC AppULTRASONIC; DeviceDriverSet_Servo AppServo; //DeviceDriverSet_IRrecv AppIRrecv; /*f(x) int */ static boolean function_xxx(long x, long s, long e) //f(x) { if (s <= x && x <= e) return true; else return false; } static void delay_xxx(uint16_t _ms) { wdt_reset(); for (unsigned long i = 0; i < _ms; i++) { delay(1); } } void ApplicationFunctions_Init(void) { bool res_error = true; AppVoltage.DeviceDriverSet_Voltage_Init(); AppMotor.DeviceDriverSet_Motor_Init(); AppServo.DeviceDriverSet_Servo_Init(90); AppKey.DeviceDriverSet_Key_Init(); AppRBG_LED.DeviceDriverSet_RBGLED_Init(20); //AppIRrecv.DeviceDriverSet_IRrecv_Init(); AppULTRASONIC.DeviceDriverSet_ULTRASONIC_Init(); AppITR20001.DeviceDriverSet_ITR20001_Init(); //res_error = AppMPU6050getdata.MPU6050_dveInit(); //AppMPU6050getdata.MPU6050_calibration(); // Intialize DemoWeek 5 Parameters //FinalTest_P.controlEN = true; //FinalTest_P.dir_MA = true; //FinalTest_P.dir_MB = true; //FinalTest_P.speed_MA = 128; //FinalTest_P.speed_MB = 64; } // Initialize some variables float Yaw; // yaw angle from the IMU int IRSensL; // Left IR sensor int IRSensM; // Middle IR sensor int IRSensR; // Right IR sensor uint8_t keyValue; // key value float device_voltage; // pin voltage uint16_t ultrasonic_fb; // ultrasonic reading bool IRerror; // IR receive error uint8_t IRrecv_code; // IR receive code unsigned long previous_time = millis(); //for distance IR Sensor const int pinIRd2 = 25; const int pinIRa2 = A0; const int pinLED2 = 9; int IRvalueA2 = 0; int IRvalueD2 = 0; /* Motor Inputs */ bool dirMA; bool dirMB; bool motEN; uint8_t PWMA; uint8_t PWMB; int Servo1_Output, Servo2_Output, Servo3_Output; #define Servo1Pin 44 #define Servo2Pin 45 #define Servo3Pin 46 #include Servo servo1; Servo servo2; Servo servo3; #define IR_LEFTMOST_PIN A8 #define IR_RIGHTMOST_PIN A9 #define Button_PIN 18 #define MAX_DISTANCE 200 // Button-related variables int dropOffButton = 0; static int lastButtonState = HIGH; static unsigned long lastDebounceTime = 0; const unsigned long debounceDelay = 50; NewPing sonar(TRIG_PIN, ECHO_PIN, MAX_DISTANCE); void setup() { FinalTest_initialize(); Serial.begin(9600); ApplicationFunctions_Init(); /*UltrasoundInit();*/ //pinMode(Servo1Pin,OUTPUT); //pinMode(Servo2Pin,OUTPUT); //pinMode(Servo3Pin,OUTPUT); servo1.attach(Servo1Pin); servo2.attach(Servo2Pin); servo3.attach(Servo3Pin); pinMode(IR_LEFTMOST_PIN, INPUT); pinMode(IR_RIGHTMOST_PIN, INPUT); pinMode(Button_PIN, INPUT); FinalTest_P.PWMsl_l = 200; // range = 0-> 255 (uint8) baseline 200,50,50,200 2baseline 200,150,150,200 3baseline 180,150,150,180 FinalTest_P.PWMsl_r = 180; FinalTest_P.PWMsr_l = 180; FinalTest_P.PWMsr_r = 200; pinMode(pinIRd2,INPUT); pinMode(pinIRa2,INPUT); pinMode(pinLED2,OUTPUT); //attachInterrupt(digitalPinToInterrupt(Button_PIN),ButtonStuff,RISING); /* Interrupt Initialization TCCR1A = 0; TCCR1B = B00010010; //CNCx ICESx – WGMx3 WGMx2 CSx2 CSx1 CSx0 ICR1 = 20000; // Set Timer Interrupt 100 Hz. If you want 100*(10)= 1 kHz, just put ICR1=10000/(10)=1000, Similarly, using 2000 will produce 500 Hz //Note: Be sure the timer interrupt frequency matches with the simulink block diagram. Otherwise, the "after" function in simulink or any other functions related to time won't be accurate. TIMSK1 = B00000001; // Enable Timer Interrupt */ } unsigned long PreT = 0; /* unsigned long UltraSoundTime = 0; bool UltraSoundWaiting = false; int UltrasoundDis = 0; int UltraSoundChecking() { if (!UltraSoundWaiting) { digitalWrite(TRIG_PIN, LOW); delayMicroseconds(2); digitalWrite(TRIG_PIN, HIGH); delayMicroseconds(10); digitalWrite(TRIG_PIN, LOW); //while(!digitalRead(ECHO_PIN)){} delay(1); UltraSoundTime = millis(); UltraSoundWaiting = 1; } else { if (!digitalRead(ECHO_PIN)) { UltrasoundDis = (millis() - UltraSoundTime) / 58; UltraSoundWaiting = 0; } } return UltrasoundDis; } */ int DebugNum; // ISR(TIMER1_OVF_vect){ // } void loop() { //Serial.print("T:"); if (millis() - PreT >= 10) // Runs at 100 Hz { //Serial.println(millis() - PreT); PreT = millis(); //delay(50); // Wait 50ms between pings (about 20 pings/sec). 29ms should be the shortest delay between pings. //Serial.print("Ping: "); //Serial.print(sonar.ping_cm()); // Send ping, get distance in cm and print result (0 = outside set distance range) //Serial.println("cm"); // put your main code here, to run repeatedly: //AppMPU6050getdata.MPU6050_dveGetEulerAngles(&Yaw); // Get vehicle orientation IRSensL = AppITR20001.DeviceDriverSet_ITR20001_getAnaloguexxx_L(); IRSensM = AppITR20001.DeviceDriverSet_ITR20001_getAnaloguexxx_M(); IRSensR = AppITR20001.DeviceDriverSet_ITR20001_getAnaloguexxx_R(); AppKey.DeviceDriverSet_key_Get(&keyValue); //device_voltage = AppVoltage.DeviceDriverSet_Voltage_getAnalogue(); //AppULTRASONIC.DeviceDriverSet_ULTRASONIC_Get(&ultrasonic_fb); //AppIRrecv.DeviceDriverSet_IRrecv_Get(&IRrecv_code); /* Send fb data to Simulink Module */ FinalTest_U.IRSensL_in = IRSensL; FinalTest_U.IRSensM_in = IRSensM; FinalTest_U.IRSensR_in = IRSensR; //DemoWeek5_U.VoltageDetect_in = device_voltage; //FinalTest_U.UltraSensor_in = ultrasonic_fb; FinalTest_U.UltraSensor_in = sonar.ping_cm(); FinalTest_U.IRkeyCode_in = keyValue; //DemoWeek5_U.MPU6050IMU_yaw_in= Yaw; //DemoWeek5_U.IRSensorCode_in = IRrecv_code; FinalTest_U.IR_LEFTMOST_in = analogRead(IR_LEFTMOST_PIN); FinalTest_U.IR_RIGHTMOST_in = analogRead(IR_RIGHTMOST_PIN); FinalTest_U.dropOffButton = dropOffButton/2; //IR Distance IRvalueA2 = analogRead(pinIRa2); IRvalueD2 = digitalRead(pinIRd2); FinalTest_U.IR_DISTANCE_in = digitalRead(pinIRd2); // Read and debounce the button int buttonState = digitalRead(Button_PIN); if (buttonState != lastButtonState) { lastDebounceTime = millis(); lastButtonState = buttonState; dropOffButton++; } // if ((millis() - lastDebounceTime) > debounceDelay) { // if (buttonState == LOW && lastButtonState == HIGH) { // dropOffButton++; // Serial.print("Button Pressed! Count: "); // Serial.println(dropOffButton); // } // } //lastButtonState = buttonState; /* Step Simulink Module*/ FinalTest_step(); /* Extract outputs from Simulink Module */ PWMA = FinalTest_Y.PWMA; PWMB = FinalTest_Y.PWMB; motEN = FinalTest_Y.MotorEN; dirMA = FinalTest_Y.dirMA; dirMB = FinalTest_Y.dirMB; Servo1_Output = FinalTest_Y.servo1; Servo2_Output = FinalTest_Y.servo2; Servo3_Output = FinalTest_Y.servo3; DebugNum = FinalTest_Y.A; /* Send commands to actuators */ AppMotor.DeviceDriverSet_Motor_control(dirMA, PWMA, dirMB, PWMB , motEN); //AppMotor.DeviceDriverSet_Motor_control(1, 0, 1, 0 , 1); servo1.write(Servo1_Output); servo2.write(Servo2_Output); servo3.write(Servo3_Output); } /* Verify remaining outputs */ if (millis() - previous_time >= 1000) { // Print things here Serial.print(IRSensL); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(IRSensR); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(IRSensM); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(FinalTest_U.IR_LEFTMOST_in); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(FinalTest_U.IR_RIGHTMOST_in); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(FinalTest_U.UltraSensor_in); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(FinalTest_U.IR_DISTANCE_in); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(keyValue); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(DebugNum); Serial.print("\t"); Serial.print(dropOffButton/2); Serial.print("\n"); previous_time = millis(); } } //void ButtonStuff(){ //dropOffButton+=1; //delay(100); //}
2024.05.29 06:17 Cute-Panda-77 Question about territory counting
I’m currently reading Learn to Play Go by Janice Kim, and she runs through an example game. I’m a bit confused about the counting of the points after having moved the stones to facilitate counting. She counts 24 points for White and 25 points for Black, but after counting about 10 times, I always come up with 25 points for White (bottom 20 + left 1 + upper right 4). submitted by Cute-Panda-77 to baduk [link] [comments] I included a picture of the board as it was before the captured stones were placed back into each player’s territory to show that White was very much alive in the upper left corner. Am I missing something or is this the author’s mistake? |
2024.05.29 05:59 Visible_Green_8702 H: Mega meat week plan swap W: you to complete your sets!!! 1-1 for your new meat week doubles :) tell me what you need
submitted by Visible_Green_8702 to Market76 [link] [comments] |
2024.05.29 05:08 pioneer6675 Voltage Divider Battery Voltage and Percentage Monitor Question
2024.05.29 04:22 Jade_Husky Steering problems plz help
I have a 1986 bronco with a 4.5 inch lift and driving on 35x12.05s I just replaced the steering gearbox in an attempt to fix my bad steering, it kinda helped however it still bumpsteers like crazy and is not comfortable to drive like that. Does anyone have any tips or suggestions on how to fix this. I have thought about getting a different style of steering linkages but I’m unsure if that would help. I’m new to lifted vehicles and any advice is greatly appreciated. (Dog tax included). submitted by Jade_Husky to liftedtrucks [link] [comments] |
2024.05.29 04:09 Fair_Masterpiece_638 Water pump
2024.05.29 02:51 ronnie-roy999 Presenting the OK3588-C Development Board Featuring the Rockchip RK3588
2024.05.29 02:07 NorthernMan5 Dryer no heat
Well had the dreaded no heat issue with a front loading dryer. And figured it was likely done after 5 years of use. submitted by NorthernMan5 to DIY [link] [comments] So after getting YouTube certified, started the tear down to trouble shoot the issue. After an hour of taking things apart, got to the point where I could get my meter out and checked the heater, it was okay. Checked the over heat thermostat and the fuse and they were okay as well. Then looked at the circuit diagram, ( it is behind the circuit board ) to try and figure it out. Could it be the control board or the centrifugal switch on the motor? So connected all the interlocks and powered it up. Checked the heater, and one side was 120 volt compared to neutral, and the other was 40 volts. Humm is the control board relay flakey or the centrifugal switch. Checked the side with 40 volts, and it is the centrifugal switch side. So started digging into the motor, and thought to just check the power feed. Damm only 40 volts on one leg. Checked the power coming in and it’s only 40 volts, so unplugged it and the plug has been arcing for a while and one of the contacts is pitted and no longer making contact. Quick trip to my local hardware store for a new outlet, and a clean up of the plug contacts and back in business. Just with I had checked the plug/outlet first and avoided tearing the dryer apart. TL;DR Spent 3 hours taking apart and putting back together my no heat dryer when the problem was with the plug/outlet |
2024.05.29 01:24 gustebeast Seeking Owner of Lace X-Bar Pickup
2024.05.29 00:49 Baystatesparky Caseta 3 way part number
Could anyone tell me the part number for this caseta switch that has a black red and blue pigtail? Twice this week I ordered a caseta 3 way from the supply house and they keep giving me a caseta ( PD-6WCL-LA) with two black pigtails. In order to make this switch work you have to replace the second 3 way with a pico. Now I can’t find the one I’ve bought in the past that has the wires on it to wire like an actual 3 way switch. Thanks! submitted by Baystatesparky to electricians [link] [comments] |
2024.05.29 00:30 Big-Row4152 "Cry Havoc, and let slip the Arrow IV..."
Personal Log Recording submitted by Big-Row4152 to battletech [link] [comments] "...During their Enrichment and Recreation period, my charges enjoyed an ancient mid-20th century Terran "movie" from the Australian continent titled "Danger Close;" telling a tale of the Australia and New Zealand Army Corps during the conflict known as "Vietnam." It would appear artillery played a not insignificant part in this dramatization, for this morning I awoke to...this...slipped under my door with a note which read "Missle Good, Bigger Missle Better" Image attached "In other news, the search for the sources of battle powder and "rotgut" within our flotilla continues. I would reave the lot of them, if their competency and work ethic were impaired, but alas, it is only their judgement in design philosophy and choices of recreation which suffer, and so, thus, must I suffer such lunacy as I have chronicled..." |
2024.05.28 23:31 21keeds IGN CONT&ECCS Fuse Keeps blowing
Looking for some advice on where to start and if anyone has had this similar problem. 2004 g35 coupe VQ35DE 144k miles From the diagrams I’ve been looking into fuse #77 runs through everything in the picture I’ve attached. I was getting codes for my cam position sensors so I’ve gone through those and replaced the connectors as well as the sensors (connectors were zip tied on). After replacing those I now have a long crank where it cranks for a good 3-5 seconds before turning over once it’s turned over it runs and drives as it should even does burnouts and skids no problem but once that fuse pops the whole car dies. Replace the fuse, car starts again no problem. I’ve checked the charcoal canister (Evap can valve) and the plugs that run through it and those seem to be okay most are saying I have a rubbed wire somewhere so I’ve gone through my kick panels, under the battery tray, through all of my looms in the engine bay, ecu behind the glove box looks untouched everything seems to be intact wiring wise. Recently took it to a drift event and after blowing that fuse again, codes for the cam sensors have come back and now I also have new codes for the VVTI solenoids. I’m concerned that it may not be a timing issue at all and more likely a wiring issue of some sort that I’m not seeing. I just don’t want to spend the money on sensors and solenoids just for it to keep popping that fuse and I’m back to square 1 lol. Another thing I should note is it seems to only blow that fuse when I’m driving and up to temp. If I’m idling or driving before I get up to temp it won’t pop. My buddy is concerned that maybe something with the NATS/ Antitheft system has something to do with it and if so maybe have someone disable it through the ECU and if it’s not NATS what else could it be that I could have disabled or what else in general should I be looking for? I’ve done everything to the best of my ability to get this figured out and I’m tired of a single fuse holding me back. Any and all advice would be appreciated! submitted by 21keeds to G35 [link] [comments] |
2024.05.28 23:18 Loki_029 Issues with Opnsense No Internet Access No Local IP Interface
2024.05.28 23:16 DailyDabs- H: Meat/Alien Plans W: Apparel/Leaders
(full set of mega, just haven’t learnt skull) submitted by DailyDabs- to Market76 [link] [comments] |
2024.05.28 22:12 Junior_Smell_8682 Very interested in audio engineering
I'm an incoming freshmen majoring in Electrical Engineering bc I'm interested in it. The green/blue classes are HCC/AP credit I have from high school. I'm taking Calculus 2 and Creative Arts my 1st semester and Calculus 3 my 2nd semester, so that's why Calc 3 and CA are yellow submitted by Junior_Smell_8682 to UniversityOfHouston [link] [comments] I am also very interested in audio engineering. Since the end of 8th grade, I have 3.5 years of experience in live sound for marching band/indoor percussion (1122 hours of experience), 9 months of ProTools Studio for mixing/mastering/post-production, some studio planning/diagrams, GarageBand, MainStage, Dante ControlleVirtual Soundcard, and repairing/soldering DB25 and XLR cables I want to get a minor in Media Production. Is this doable with EE, even though I have a lot of transfer credit? I am planning on taking COMM 1307 my 1st semester if there's open spots before the 1st day of classes. It's asynchronous online, and I need to take an extra elective for UHin4 What other audio engineering classes does UH offer that I might be able to take? I heard Tech Theatre classes are only for Theatre majors How else can I get involved with audio engineering at UH? What's Coog Radio, Coog TV, Honors College Club Theatre, and Nothing About Us Without Us like? Which should I join? https://preview.redd.it/pwkvijyn483d1.jpg?width=1407&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f34fa7e759a1ce6c01e8fa74ae228ebe635a0a05 |
2024.05.28 22:08 AuthorOnCrack Man is this lucky....but what a shame it was Gohr and not Paingorgers....
submitted by AuthorOnCrack to diablo4 [link] [comments] |
2024.05.28 21:49 spacedebriss THE DEADPOOL THEORY
THE DEADPOOL THEORY submitted by spacedebriss to GME [link] [comments] I stayed up way too late last night and got up way too early this morning trying to put this together. I should probably edit it more, but oh well. This is what I have. I need to go do some other stuff now. NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Probably should have waited to post until I toiled some more. I want to add to the deadpool theory. Not take away from it, just add to it. I think the Deadpool and Retail Pool go more hand in hand. I think the Deadpool is the original pool that feeds the retail pool. The key for me has always been how the naked shares are created. Over a year ago I honestly reached a point where the DD was a jumbled mess in my mind. I wanted to start from zero and see what I could find, but not really zero because I had read a lot of DD, thanks to others I knew what to start searching for, so I set out. https://preview.redd.it/1qkm2bck183d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=700c6d2615eeb8805943faec5977200eb3414279 CITATIONS If you think I’m pulling all of this out of my ass similar to how naked shares are pulled out of asses then please go read my old DD with charts and figures, goes more in depth, and has some strong citations in my opinion. OR better yet go absorb some of those citations, especially these first four: 1. THREE ESSAYS ON NAKED SHORT SELLING AND FAILS-TO-DELIVER by John W. Welborn 2. MARRIED PUTS, REVERSE CONVERSIONS AND ABUSE OF THE OPTIONS MARKET MAKER EXCEPTION ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE by John W Welborn 3. ETF Short Interest and Failures-to-Deliver: Naked Short Selling or Operational Shorting? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg&t=1655s 4. Exchange-Traded Funds, Fails-to-Deliver, and Market Volatility by Thomas Stratmann and John W. Welborn https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2183251 If you’re going to only read one of these then I’d make it this one. Everybody here should read a little Welborn in my opinion. Dude is the GOAT! SOME RELEVANT SEC FILINGS:
PDF FILES: DISCLAIMER: these links will try to download a PDF from the SEC’s website 3. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-50103.pdf 4. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2012/34-67451.pdf 5. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2007/34-56212fr.pdf 6. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775fr.pdf 7. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58190.pdf 8. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58592.pdf 9. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58572.pdf 10. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58723.pdf 11. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58711.pdf 12. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58773.pdf 13. https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf 14. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775.pdf 15. https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2006/34-54154.pdf 16. https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf MORE SEC 17. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm 18. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-155.htm 19. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1159510/000137036821000064/a210729-ex992.htm PLAYING BY THE RULES? I wanted to research that old DD by looking at the rules of naked shorting. When I would look into old DD and theories, I kept ending up at the answer of fraud. They didn’t stand up to the rules, unless lots o’ fraud was involved. Until I got to ETFs…. Now again, if you want more info go read the first four citations up at the top. The first 2 citations are PhD papers covering possible naked shorting and the Options loophole. This is the old way, this Options loophole was closed by the SEC back in 2008. For the new ETF way of naked shorting you can explore citations 3 and 4. These two citations cover how ETFs could be used to still naked short today. This is why I always felt the reactions to my old DD were so strange. I’m basically saying there could be a monstrous naked shorting position out in the market and it could be operating under the rules. No fraud is needed! Why didn’t superstonk respond with more positivity to my old DD a year ago?! I still think that DD did a pretty good job of laying out how naked shorters could be operating under the rules. The rules make it clear to me that: BULLET SWAPS – Can’t be used to make naked shares of a stock. If a naked shorter points to bullet swaps as where they got the shares from then the SEC should laugh in their face. You would need a lot of SEC fraud. Bullet swaps would have other good uses, but not for the actual creation of naked shares. REHYPOTHECATION – The idea here is that the naked shorter borrows shares infinitely. The naked shorter points to the borrow and sure the SEC could let that pass, but it should still count as a borrow. Otherwise, you need more SEC fraud to explain this one. The Market should see the naked short position because it should be tagged as borrowed, and the naked shorter would also need to pay for that borrow. These are both things the naked shorter is trying to avoid – that’s why they create naked shares rather than borrow shares. Alternatively, the naked shorter could have a deal with a broker. The naked shorter does infinite borrows off of the brokers stock, but again you would need fraud from the broker and the broker would likely demand payment on the “borrows”. For rehypothecation to work you need a lot of fraud and naked shorters would likely need to pay borrow fees. Properly creating naked shares within the rules means no borrowing would be done (could be expensive) and means no fraud has to be done. OPTIONS – This is where it gets confusing. Options used to be used to naked short, I wrote a big DD on this about a year ago. It has a lot of pictures and deep dives into a lot of stuff including options. If you want to learn more about the options loophole, don’t read my old DD, scroll back up to the top and read some of Welborn’s Options work (citations 1 and 2). You would need two participants to naked short back in the day and I believe that’s how it’s still done today. One would be a Market Maker and one would typically be a Hedge Fund. The Market Maker had special privileges around options, MMs and only MMs could point to un-exercised options as a locate for shares. They create shares out of thin air and send them to a hedge fund. The hedge fund sells the MM back futures contracts and/or calls. The Market Maker uses the calls as a locates and the Market is none the wiser. Or is just apathetic. But they were technically following the rules as written. These packages of naked shares would have been built with options, futures, and naked shares all packaged together. This Options Market Maker loophole went away in 2008. Options should not be an effective loophole for creating massive amounts of naked shares anymore. Again, you would need lots of SEC fraud. ETFs – I’m not just throwing ETFs out there. There is a fucking fantastic Welborn paper (citation 4) and also a youtube video from a business professor (citation 3) on ETFs and how ETFs could possibly be used to naked short. To use ETFs you would still need a Market Maker and a Hedge Fund (the HF could be another MM or big institution). The Market Maker has special privileges. 1. They can pull shares out of ETFs. 2. They can also set future redemption/creation dates with that same Hedge Fund and not tell anybody. It seems the Options loophole to naked short was replaced with an ETF redemption/creation loophole to naked short. Here’s a footnote in an SEC filing – I think this could be a smoking gun: https://preview.redd.it/212l1xyk183d1.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=f964a0d412ba172e208b401867174531e025d5fb Page 10 from: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf The new ETF loophole:
If the SEC goes back to the Hedge Fund and asks where they got the ETFs from he points to the Market Maker. SEC, “sounds good, can I leave you my resume?” If the SEC goes to the Market Maker and asks where he got the ETFs, the Market Maker would probably say, “Ha! Fuck if I know! I could buy and sell a million of that fucking ETF in a day. You want to look through our ledgers?” SEC, “Oh. I should probably take ‘em, but I’ll just look at porn instead. You guys hiring?”
These naked shares from the Market Maker to the Hedge Fund would be insured through futures and/or LEAPS. I believe they would likely insure them with one another using futures contracts instead of LEAPS, but I’m not positive. Either way, this “insurance” means that if it gets to expiration and the Hedge Fund hasn’t delivered shares, the Market Maker can use those futures contracts to force delivery. But why might we also see naked shorters holding huge amounts of options? The options could be hedging and leveraging with the wider market (not other naked shorters). So, if naked shorters are using futures to insure that they won’t be left holding the bag with one another then they would likely want to use common expiration dates for LEAPS. That lets them grab some “insurance” (Call Options) and extra leverage (Put Options) from non-naked shorters. If the naked shorters position blows up and they owe the other naked shorter shares then they can use their calls to get some shares from the market. Or if they’re position does well then they can make extra profits off of their puts. Here’s a diagram that will hopefully explain some of this better: https://preview.redd.it/b7v91mel183d1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=fea8fab9bbd7dc881d1b08f467b80b0047fd46ca The Hedge Fund is selling the naked shares from the Deadpool through the Market Maker into retail hands. Now the hedge fund like the market maker is going to want some futures or calls to make sure the market maker sells the shares back to him. But they’ll probably do this on a shorter timeline. Maybe they built the dealpool with three year expirations. Now they’ll naked short to retail probably using 1 year expirations. I think retails average is about nine months for holding a stock. A year should be enough time to find a new share to buy in order to close/roll an old naked share. Retail naked shares would likely expire every March, June, September, December. Naked shorters are constantly closing and rolling their naked shorts with retail throughout the year. Or at least that’s the idea, usually retail sells pretty quickly and naked shorters can keep driving the price down. Here’s a diagram to visualize deadpools and retail pools together. The red is the deadpool. The deadpools are the original pools of naked shares that are created with long expirations. It would make sense to have these expire three years out so 1. they last long – don’t have to keep creating naked shares and 2. they can be hedged/leveraged with the wider market using common expiration dates. Then the yellow would be the pools of naked shares that are sold to retail. These would have shorter expirations because ideally the naked shorter would want to churn these in a year or less. The naked shorters create a big deadpool of naked shares that will expire in three years. Then, if they’re using 1 year expirations with retail, they can use those naked shares in the market up to three times. https://preview.redd.it/7fe2fwzl183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=029649336a89107a0519a9198fedee49929cc59c Now look at where expiration dates line up between red pools and yellow pools. January and June. January and June are common expiration dates for LEAPS. Again, if the naked shorters want to hedge/leverage with the wider market then these would be the expiration dates they would want to build their naked shares around. If the naked shares are built in this way then January of 2021 could have been a time where some of the Retail Pool and some of the Deadpool were expiring. Let’s say it’s a big expiration time and there are not enough shares. Maybe some DFV dude and a bunch of other retail investors are buying calls and shares. In this scenario, the Market Maker would try to find shares to close/roll the position. If unable, then the Hedge Fund would need to exercise their “insurance” and demand the shares from the MM. The Market Maker also has “insurance” though because he’s the big boy and he won’t be left holding the bag. The MM throws down his uno reverse card and screams, “No! You!” BASKET THEORY – Why do other stocks move hard with GME at certain times? Alright, let’s say naked shorters are building their positions how I’ve laid out. When naked shorters open the ETFs at the beginning of the deadpool, they are also pulling out naked shares of other companies. They could use those shares for a lot of different things. They could hold them and sell options to make money. Or they could also naked short some of those companies too. Maybe, they open an ETF and pull out naked GME and some naked shares of another company. They could also naked short the other stocks into the market. It would move differently on a shorter timescale to GME because they’re rolling the position with retail a year at a time. It might move more in line with GME on a longer time scale. When the deadpool expires they need to finish buying shares and creating ETFs. That could mean buying a bunch of different stocks at one time. Buy some the remaining GME, STOCK B, STOCK C, etc. and close/finish rolling your deadpool position by packaging those shares up into nice little ETFs. 2021 – 2024 This could all explain some of the wild stuff we’ve been seeing lately.
And you NEED 100 shares! The call insures that someone else has to find the shares for $20 each. You spend your $200 on the call option expiring June 22nd. Now you’re guaranteed to get your 100 shares for $20 each even if the price skyrockets. You spent $2200 on 100 shares. Again, no one knows who is buying these calls or why, but this could line up nicely with my theory that a chunk of the deadpool is expiring soon. I don’t want to get anyone excited for MOASS. I’ve made bad predictions in the past. In the past I thought a MOASS would probably happen in March, but that was because I hadn’t connected the deadpool to everything. Don’t get hyped, but if deadpools are built with January and June expirations then it would make sense that MOASS could happen in January or June. It would explain why naked shorters almost got fucked in January 2021. If, they were able to survive and push a huge chunk of their deadpool out three years then June 2024 could be a rough time for them. I’m not going to say it’s a guarantee of a MOASS this June/July. I will say that I really would not want to be a naked shorter trying to roll a bad bet on GME this June. Now this is all conjecture, but what if part of the deadpool needed to be rolled in January of 2021? Meaning the Hedge Fund needed to settle up with the Market Maker so they could finish closing the deadpool and keep the position rolling. Now the Deadpool was the original pool of naked shares. The Market Maker pulled these naked shares out of ETFs and sent them to the Hedge Fund. Naked shorters usually want to keep the train going until the company is bankrupt so they’d usually keep closing and rolling the deadpool until that happens. So, if you’ve followed along then January of 2021 could have been a pretty key date where a Market Maker may have needed to buy to settle a portion of the Retail Pool. These would be shares that the Hedge Fund naked shorted to retail through the Market Maker – insuring with futures and/or LEAPS. Then the Hedge Fund would have also needed to finish settling a portion of the Deadpool back to the Market Maker that’s about to expire. Again, these deadpool naked shares are the original naked shares pulled out of ETFs, probably three years ago. They’ve been using and abusing that naked share with retail for three years, probably a year or so at a time. If the position blew up, say in January of 2021 then some Hedge Funds would have also blown the fuck up. First, the market maker would go to the market and try to buy shares. No shares. The market maker turns to the hedge fund and says, “sorry, no shares.” This is why the Hedge Fund bough “insurance” or hedged with his “buddy”. The Hedge Fund uses his contracts with the Market Maker to say, “here’s the cash, where are the shares?” The Market Maker plays his reverse uno card: The original contracts he made with the Hedge Fund when the naked shares were created and says, “No! You!” Hedge Fund: Fuck! There are no shares! MM: Not my problem. Where are my shares? Market: No shares. The Market Maker has the Hedge Funds other positions liquidated until there’s enough cash to buy shares in the market. In asinine cases where this happens the market might allow the Market Maker to just turn off the buy button to save his sorry ass. This is considered by many to be complete bullshit. The deadpool is closed/rolled. Possibly three years into the future. 2021 to 2024. I think there might always be a Deadpool that then feeds the Retail Pool. My other DD adds to the Deadpool theory and rehashes some of this, but the gist is that if you can create a deadpool with your “buddy” then could you just add a ton to the deadpool three years ago through the market to drive the price down and not add it to the retail pool. In other words, more naked shares that drive the price down, but they end up in your “friends” hands. He also want to drive the price down so you can worry less. Adding to the deadpool in a really desperate time would make sense to me. Now if a bunch of shares were added to the deadpool three years ago and were split by the splividend then how does that all work? I think with a normal split, naked shares that are split in the deadpool could be settled with cash. Does the splividend change that? In other words, if there were a bunch of naked shares shat into the deadpool three years ago. Then they were split, but delivery was delayed until expiration. And now they’re finally expiring. Can they be settled with cash or do real shares need to be bought to fulfill the long overdue splividend? THE DRS POOL https://preview.redd.it/rtxz74em183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=60d875bd27f7567deeb55e34c9f0283127d973af This just tries to simplify thing. The way the naked share is likely built results in it ending up in a deadpool between the naked shorters. They then pull naked shares from the deadpool and send them out into the market to naked short. Good thing, you have recourse! Believe you’ve been sold a naked share?! Your only way to truly find out if you have a real share or not is by DRSing. Pull your shares into the DRS Pool. Now you can have peace of mind that it’s a real share. ENDGAME If I were a naked shorter facing a potential MOASS, what would I do?
HOW WOULD A MOASS START IN THIS SCENARIO? Alright, we don’t know why a MOASS would pop off. It would probably be expiration dates and/or too many DRSd shares. But we still actually do know why: naked shorting, not enough shares, buy button smashed, price goes boom! If it’s built the way I explained here, then MOASS means the Market Maker went to the market to buy some shares and there weren’t enough shares. But they like REALLY NEED SHARES. The price rises. If it gets to expiration of some of the retail naked shares and they haven’t been rolled then the position starts unraveling. MM: No shares. HF: Contract. Shares now! MM: No! You! HF: Fuck. MM: Margin Call HF: I’m dying. Let’s say this is what happened last time. The Hedge Funds blew up, if it happened again, would it now be a Market Maker and a bigger Market Maker stuck in this death loop? MM: I have assumed the position. lol MM: Fuck, you know what I meant. I absorbed the HF’s toxic naked shorts! So, if the Market Maker absorbed the naked short side of the play and is now the one who will be margin called. Who absorbed the Market Maker’s side? The one holding the “No! You!” reverse uno card this time around? If the Market Maker can’t survive like the Hedge Fund? Can the new guy survive like the MM did last time? TL;DR Some PhD papers by Welborn everyone needs to read like three years ago! Options were used to naked short in the past – Welborn explains how. ETFs likely used now – again, read Welborn. Please! I layout how ETFs are likely pulled apart and shuffled around to create naked shares or what I like to call a deadpool. Dead shares that shouldn’t even exist. Then the deadpool is pulled from to send naked shares into the market. Again, if you want to learn how I got here I have a long DD from a year ago in my history OR preferably go read Welborn’s work. The way this is all done means because of the way the naked shares are sent to market there could be weird price movement around triple-witching dates. March/April, June/July, SeptembeOctober, DecembeJanuary. Triple-witching dates are March, June, September, December, but I push them out a month because Market Makers get a little extra leeway that us common folk don’t get. Again, in my old DD I talk about why they could potentially have an extra month tacked onto their expirations. Then because of the way the shares are originally pulled out of ETFs there could be weird movement around common expirations for LEAPS. January and June. January and June could be extra special times where a batch of naked shares are expiring in the hands of retail and need to finish being rolled. While, also having a batch of naked shares originally created for the deadpool that need to finish being rolled. I know this is all confusing, but basically I believe the rules allow a loophole for naked shorting through ETFs. I believe the way those naked shares are created makes a deadpool parked with naked shorters. When they want to match a buy on the market (retail buys a share) they then pull a naked share out of the deadpool and send it to retail. Naked shares in the deadpool hangout for about three years at a time meaning they need to be closed or rolled within 3 years. Naked shares to retail would likely be done with a 1 year expiration since retail usually churns through shares fast. You’re able to create a naked share and sell it to retail and buy it back and sell it and buy it several times before the naked share needs to be renewed (rolled – a new naked share created and the old one finally closed). Using ETFs could also explain weird movements in other stocks. If you’re already pulling a bunch of different stocks out of the ETF (not just GME) then you could use some of those naked shares to naked short other stocks as well. You’d be selling to retail at different times so the price may not move in tandem around the triple-witching dates, but they could move similarly around deadpool expiration dates. Remember, to close the naked shares from the deadpool you need to buy shares and create the ETFs. January 2021 could be a time where you need to buy a bunch of different stocks to close/roll some of the deadpool. June 2024 could also be a time where naked shorters might need to buy a bunch of different stocks in order to finally create some ETFs. You might see some unrelated stocks suddenly increasing in price at the same time. In my opinion, if a stock is heavily naked shorted, then a MOASS would kick off for 1 of 2 reasons.
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2024.05.28 21:47 Rob_Sothoth Impossible Landscapes - Session 1 "The Apartment"
2024.05.28 21:45 spacedebriss THE DEADPOOL THEORY
THE DEADPOOL THEORY submitted by spacedebriss to DeepFuckingValue [link] [comments] I stayed up way too late last night and got up way too early this morning trying to put this together. I should probably edit it more, but oh well. This is what I have. I need to go do some other stuff now. NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Probably should have waited to post until I toiled some more. I want to add to the deadpool theory. Not take away from it, just add to it. I think the Deadpool and Retail Pool go more hand in hand. I think the Deadpool is the original pool that feeds the retail pool. The key for me has always been how the naked shares are created. Over a year ago I honestly reached a point where the DD was a jumbled mess in my mind. I wanted to start from zero and see what I could find, but not really zero because I had read a lot of DD, thanks to others I knew what to start searching for, so I set out. https://preview.redd.it/kx9s01yz083d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=134e135f9a393230b850ad5f96493d402a4aad14 CITATIONS If you think I’m pulling all of this out of my ass similar to how naked shares are pulled out of asses then please go read my old DD with charts and figures, goes more in depth, and has some strong citations in my opinion. OR better yet go absorb some of those citations, especially these first four: 1. THREE ESSAYS ON NAKED SHORT SELLING AND FAILS-TO-DELIVER by John W. Welborn 2. MARRIED PUTS, REVERSE CONVERSIONS AND ABUSE OF THE OPTIONS MARKET MAKER EXCEPTION ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE by John W Welborn 3. ETF Short Interest and Failures-to-Deliver: Naked Short Selling or Operational Shorting? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg&t=1655s 4. Exchange-Traded Funds, Fails-to-Deliver, and Market Volatility by Thomas Stratmann and John W. Welborn https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2183251 If you’re going to only read one of these then I’d make it this one. Everybody here should read a little Welborn in my opinion. Dude is the GOAT! SOME RELEVANT SEC FILINGS:
PDF FILES: DISCLAIMER: these links will try to download a PDF from the SEC’s website 3. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-50103.pdf 4. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2012/34-67451.pdf 5. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2007/34-56212fr.pdf 6. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775fr.pdf 7. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58190.pdf 8. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58592.pdf 9. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58572.pdf 10. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58723.pdf 11. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58711.pdf 12. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58773.pdf 13. https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf 14. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775.pdf 15. https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2006/34-54154.pdf 16. https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf MORE SEC 17. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm 18. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-155.htm 19. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1159510/000137036821000064/a210729-ex992.htm PLAYING BY THE RULES? I wanted to research that old DD by looking at the rules of naked shorting. When I would look into old DD and theories, I kept ending up at the answer of fraud. They didn’t stand up to the rules, unless lots o’ fraud was involved. Until I got to ETFs…. Now again, if you want more info go read the first four citations up at the top. The first 2 citations are PhD papers covering possible naked shorting and the Options loophole. This is the old way, this Options loophole was closed by the SEC back in 2008. For the new ETF way of naked shorting you can explore citations 3 and 4. These two citations cover how ETFs could be used to still naked short today. This is why I always felt the reactions to my old DD were so strange. I’m basically saying there could be a monstrous naked shorting position out in the market and it could be operating under the rules. No fraud is needed! Why didn’t superstonk respond with more positivity to my old DD a year ago?! I still think that DD did a pretty good job of laying out how naked shorters could be operating under the rules. The rules make it clear to me that: BULLET SWAPS – Can’t be used to make naked shares of a stock. If a naked shorter points to bullet swaps as where they got the shares from then the SEC should laugh in their face. You would need a lot of SEC fraud. Bullet swaps would have other good uses, but not for the actual creation of naked shares. REHYPOTHECATION – The idea here is that the naked shorter borrows shares infinitely. The naked shorter points to the borrow and sure the SEC could let that pass, but it should still count as a borrow. Otherwise, you need more SEC fraud to explain this one. The Market should see the naked short position because it should be tagged as borrowed, and the naked shorter would also need to pay for that borrow. These are both things the naked shorter is trying to avoid – that’s why they create naked shares rather than borrow shares. Alternatively, the naked shorter could have a deal with a broker. The naked shorter does infinite borrows off of the brokers stock, but again you would need fraud from the broker and the broker would likely demand payment on the “borrows”. For rehypothecation to work you need a lot of fraud and naked shorters would likely need to pay borrow fees. Properly creating naked shares within the rules means no borrowing would be done (could be expensive) and means no fraud has to be done. OPTIONS – This is where it gets confusing. Options used to be used to naked short, I wrote a big DD on this about a year ago. It has a lot of pictures and deep dives into a lot of stuff including options. If you want to learn more about the options loophole, don’t read my old DD, scroll back up to the top and read some of Welborn’s Options work (citations 1 and 2). You would need two participants to naked short back in the day and I believe that’s how it’s still done today. One would be a Market Maker and one would typically be a Hedge Fund. The Market Maker had special privileges around options, MMs and only MMs could point to un-exercised options as a locate for shares. They create shares out of thin air and send them to a hedge fund. The hedge fund sells the MM back futures contracts and/or calls. The Market Maker uses the calls as a locates and the Market is none the wiser. Or is just apathetic. But they were technically following the rules as written. These packages of naked shares would have been built with options, futures, and naked shares all packaged together. This Options Market Maker loophole went away in 2008. Options should not be an effective loophole for creating massive amounts of naked shares anymore. Again, you would need lots of SEC fraud. ETFs – I’m not just throwing ETFs out there. There is a fucking fantastic Welborn paper (citation 4) and also a youtube video from a business professor (citation 3) on ETFs and how ETFs could possibly be used to naked short. To use ETFs you would still need a Market Maker and a Hedge Fund (the HF could be another MM or big institution). The Market Maker has special privileges. 1. They can pull shares out of ETFs. 2. They can also set future redemption/creation dates with that same Hedge Fund and not tell anybody. It seems the Options loophole to naked short was replaced with an ETF redemption/creation loophole to naked short. Here’s a footnote in an SEC filing – I think this could be a smoking gun: https://preview.redd.it/7u7rs7t0183d1.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce911b6ef047ade8526551280a8642bc3fee6c96 Page 10 from: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf The new ETF loophole:
If the SEC goes back to the Hedge Fund and asks where they got the ETFs from he points to the Market Maker. SEC, “sounds good, can I leave you my resume?” If the SEC goes to the Market Maker and asks where he got the ETFs, the Market Maker would probably say, “Ha! Fuck if I know! I could buy and sell a million of that fucking ETF in a day. You want to look through our ledgers?” SEC, “Oh. I should probably take ‘em, but I’ll just look at porn instead. You guys hiring?”
These naked shares from the Market Maker to the Hedge Fund would be insured through futures and/or LEAPS. I believe they would likely insure them with one another using futures contracts instead of LEAPS, but I’m not positive. Either way, this “insurance” means that if it gets to expiration and the Hedge Fund hasn’t delivered shares, the Market Maker can use those futures contracts to force delivery. But why might we also see naked shorters holding huge amounts of options? The options could be hedging and leveraging with the wider market (not other naked shorters). So, if naked shorters are using futures to insure that they won’t be left holding the bag with one another then they would likely want to use common expiration dates for LEAPS. That lets them grab some “insurance” (Call Options) and extra leverage (Put Options) from non-naked shorters. If the naked shorters position blows up and they owe the other naked shorter shares then they can use their calls to get some shares from the market. Or if they’re position does well then they can make extra profits off of their puts. Here’s a diagram that will hopefully explain some of this better: https://preview.redd.it/0k0k50k1183d1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6834a6efc5fc4630ffcf542dd3222f5d6fd4055 The Hedge Fund is selling the naked shares from the Deadpool through the Market Maker into retail hands. Now the hedge fund like the market maker is going to want some futures or calls to make sure the market maker sells the shares back to him. But they’ll probably do this on a shorter timeline. Maybe they built the dealpool with three year expirations. Now they’ll naked short to retail probably using 1 year expirations. I think retails average is about nine months for holding a stock. A year should be enough time to find a new share to buy in order to close/roll an old naked share. Retail naked shares would likely expire every March, June, September, December. Naked shorters are constantly closing and rolling their naked shorts with retail throughout the year. Or at least that’s the idea, usually retail sells pretty quickly and naked shorters can keep driving the price down. Here’s a diagram to visualize deadpools and retail pools together. The red is the deadpool. The deadpools are the original pools of naked shares that are created with long expirations. It would make sense to have these expire three years out so 1. they last long – don’t have to keep creating naked shares and 2. they can be hedged/leveraged with the wider market using common expiration dates. Then the yellow would be the pools of naked shares that are sold to retail. These would have shorter expirations because ideally the naked shorter would want to churn these in a year or less. The naked shorters create a big deadpool of naked shares that will expire in three years. Then, if they’re using 1 year expirations with retail, they can use those naked shares in the market up to three times. https://preview.redd.it/9plf8u92183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=a29d688b91802dc2fe01416a00a5b96a014ede8f Now look at where expiration dates line up between red pools and yellow pools. January and June. January and June are common expiration dates for LEAPS. Again, if the naked shorters want to hedge/leverage with the wider market then these would be the expiration dates they would want to build their naked shares around. If the naked shares are built in this way then January of 2021 could have been a time where some of the Retail Pool and some of the Deadpool were expiring. Let’s say it’s a big expiration time and there are not enough shares. Maybe some DFV dude and a bunch of other retail investors are buying calls and shares. In this scenario, the Market Maker would try to find shares to close/roll the position. If unable, then the Hedge Fund would need to exercise their “insurance” and demand the shares from the MM. The Market Maker also has “insurance” though because he’s the big boy and he won’t be left holding the bag. The MM throws down his uno reverse card and screams, “No! You!” BASKET THEORY – Why do other stocks move hard with GME at certain times? Alright, let’s say naked shorters are building their positions how I’ve laid out. When naked shorters open the ETFs at the beginning of the deadpool, they are also pulling out naked shares of other companies. They could use those shares for a lot of different things. They could hold them and sell options to make money. Or they could also naked short some of those companies too. Maybe, they open an ETF and pull out naked GME and some naked POPCORN. They could also naked short POPCORN into the market. It would move differently on a shorter timescale to GME because they’re rolling the position with retail a year at a time. It might move more in line with GME on a longer time scale. When the deadpool expires they need to finish buying shares and creating ETFs. That could mean buying a bunch of different stocks at one time. Buy some the remaining GME, POPCORN, HEADPHONES, etc. and close/finish rolling your deadpool position by packaging those shares up into nice little ETFs. 2021 – 2024 This could all explain some of the wild stuff we’ve been seeing lately.
And you NEED 100 shares! The call insures that someone else has to find the shares for $20 each. You spend your $200 on the call option expiring June 22nd. Now you’re guaranteed to get your 100 shares for $20 each even if the price skyrockets. You spent $2200 on 100 shares. Again, no one knows who is buying these calls or why, but this could line up nicely with my theory that a chunk of the deadpool is expiring soon. I don’t want to get anyone excited for MOASS. I’ve made bad predictions in the past. In the past I thought a MOASS would probably happen in March, but that was because I hadn’t connected the deadpool to everything. Don’t get hyped, but if deadpools are built with January and June expirations then it would make sense that MOASS could happen in January or June. It would explain why naked shorters almost got fucked in January 2021. If, they were able to survive and push a huge chunk of their deadpool out three years then June 2024 could be a rough time for them. I’m not going to say it’s a guarantee of a MOASS this June/July. I will say that I really would not want to be a naked shorter trying to roll a bad bet on GME this June. Now this is all conjecture, but what if part of the deadpool needed to be rolled in January of 2021? Meaning the Hedge Fund needed to settle up with the Market Maker so they could finish closing the deadpool and keep the position rolling. Now the Deadpool was the original pool of naked shares. The Market Maker pulled these naked shares out of ETFs and sent them to the Hedge Fund. Naked shorters usually want to keep the train going until the company is bankrupt so they’d usually keep closing and rolling the deadpool until that happens. So, if you’ve followed along then January of 2021 could have been a pretty key date where a Market Maker may have needed to buy to settle a portion of the Retail Pool. These would be shares that the Hedge Fund naked shorted to retail through the Market Maker – insuring with futures and/or LEAPS. Then the Hedge Fund would have also needed to finish settling a portion of the Deadpool back to the Market Maker that’s about to expire. Again, these deadpool naked shares are the original naked shares pulled out of ETFs, probably three years ago. They’ve been using and abusing that naked share with retail for three years, probably a year or so at a time. If the position blew up, say in January of 2021 then some Hedge Funds would have also blown the fuck up. First, the market maker would go to the market and try to buy shares. No shares. The market maker turns to the hedge fund and says, “sorry, no shares.” This is why the Hedge Fund bough “insurance” or hedged with his “buddy”. The Hedge Fund uses his contracts with the Market Maker to say, “here’s the cash, where are the shares?” The Market Maker plays his reverse uno card: The original contracts he made with the Hedge Fund when the naked shares were created and says, “No! You!” Hedge Fund: Fuck! There are no shares! MM: Not my problem. Where are my shares? Market: No shares. The Market Maker has the Hedge Funds other positions liquidated until there’s enough cash to buy shares in the market. In asinine cases where this happens the market might allow the Market Maker to just turn off the buy button to save his sorry ass. This is considered by many to be complete bullshit. The deadpool is closed/rolled. Possibly three years into the future. 2021 to 2024. I think there might always be a Deadpool that then feeds the Retail Pool. My other DD adds to the Deadpool theory and rehashes some of this, but the gist is that if you can create a deadpool with your “buddy” then could you just add a ton to the deadpool three years ago through the market to drive the price down and not add it to the retail pool. In other words, more naked shares that drive the price down, but they end up in your “friends” hands. He also want to drive the price down so you can worry less. Adding to the deadpool in a really desperate time would make sense to me. Now if a bunch of shares were added to the deadpool three years ago and were split by the splividend then how does that all work? I think with a normal split, naked shares that are split in the deadpool could be settled with cash. Does the splividend change that? In other words, if there were a bunch of naked shares shat into the deadpool three years ago. Then they were split, but delivery was delayed until expiration. And now they’re finally expiring. Can they be settled with cash or do real shares need to be bought to fulfill the long overdue splividend? THE DRS POOL https://preview.redd.it/x6uj1n24183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=7887d54ea5fcaff20e6c65865826657c4b9c13cf This just tries to simplify thing. The way the naked share is likely built results in it ending up in a deadpool between the naked shorters. They then pull naked shares from the deadpool and send them out into the market to naked short. Good thing, you have recourse! Believe you’ve been sold a naked share?! Your only way to truly find out if you have a real share or not is by DRSing. Pull your shares into the DRS Pool. Now you can have peace of mind that it’s a real share. ENDGAME If I were a naked shorter facing a potential MOASS, what would I do?
HOW WOULD A MOASS START IN THIS SCENARIO? Alright, we don’t know why a MOASS would pop off. It would probably be expiration dates and/or too many DRSd shares. But we still actually do know why: naked shorting, not enough shares, buy button smashed, price goes boom! If it’s built the way I explained here, then MOASS means the Market Maker went to the market to buy some shares and there weren’t enough shares. But they like REALLY NEED SHARES. The price rises. If it gets to expiration of some of the retail naked shares and they haven’t been rolled then the position starts unraveling. MM: No shares. HF: Contract. Shares now! MM: No! You! HF: Fuck. MM: Margin Call HF: I’m dying. Let’s say this is what happened last time. The Hedge Funds blew up, if it happened again, would it now be a Market Maker and a bigger Market Maker stuck in this death loop? MM: I have assumed the position. lol MM: Fuck, you know what I meant. I absorbed the HF’s toxic naked shorts! So, if the Market Maker absorbed the naked short side of the play and is now the one who will be margin called. Who absorbed the Market Maker’s side? The one holding the “No! You!” reverse uno card this time around? If the Market Maker can’t survive like the Hedge Fund? Can the new guy survive like the MM did last time? TL;DR Some PhD papers by Welborn everyone needs to read like three years ago! Options were used to naked short in the past – Welborn explains how. ETFs likely used now – again, read Welborn. Please! I layout how ETFs are likely pulled apart and shuffled around to create naked shares or what I like to call a deadpool. Dead shares that shouldn’t even exist. Then the deadpool is pulled from to send naked shares into the market. Again, if you want to learn how I got here I have a long DD from a year ago in my history OR preferably go read Welborn’s work. The way this is all done means because of the way the naked shares are sent to market there could be weird price movement around triple-witching dates. March/April, June/July, SeptembeOctober, DecembeJanuary. Triple-witching dates are March, June, September, December, but I push them out a month because Market Makers get a little extra leeway that us common folk don’t get. Again, in my old DD I talk about why they could potentially have an extra month tacked onto their expirations. Then because of the way the shares are originally pulled out of ETFs there could be weird movement around common expirations for LEAPS. January and June. January and June could be extra special times where a batch of naked shares are expiring in the hands of retail and need to finish being rolled. While, also having a batch of naked shares originally created for the deadpool that need to finish being rolled. I know this is all confusing, but basically I believe the rules allow a loophole for naked shorting through ETFs. I believe the way those naked shares are created makes a deadpool parked with naked shorters. When they want to match a buy on the market (retail buys a share) they then pull a naked share out of the deadpool and send it to retail. Naked shares in the deadpool hangout for about three years at a time meaning they need to be closed or rolled within 3 years. Naked shares to retail would likely be done with a 1 year expiration since retail usually churns through shares fast. You’re able to create a naked share and sell it to retail and buy it back and sell it and buy it several times before the naked share needs to be renewed (rolled – a new naked share created and the old one finally closed). Using ETFs could also explain weird movements in other stocks. If you’re already pulling a bunch of different stocks out of the ETF (not just GME) then you could use some of those naked shares to naked short other stocks as well. You’d be selling to retail at different times so the price may not move in tandem around the triple-witching dates, but they could move similarly around deadpool expiration dates. Remember, to close the naked shares from the deadpool you need to buy shares and create the ETFs. January 2021 could be a time where you need to buy a bunch of different stocks to close/roll some of the deadpool. June 2024 could also be a time where naked shorters might need to buy a bunch of different stocks in order to finally create some ETFs. You might see some unrelated stocks suddenly increasing in price at the same time. In my opinion, if a stock is heavily naked shorted, then a MOASS would kick off for 1 of 2 reasons.
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2024.05.28 21:03 IAmTerdFergusson Just Finished Words of Radiance - Some thoughts
2024.05.28 20:31 edenroz GIT migration
2024.05.28 19:29 NotAnGenericUsername H: Swarm of Flies and other new Meat Week Plans. W: Offers / Caps/Leaders / Plan Offers / Dr. Bones / Apparel.
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