Readers, welcome back. In Part 1 of this series, we trace Mark Korzilius' entrepreneurial journey from his initial setbacks in life to the founding of Vapiano, a novel concept in the restaurant industry. We explore the intricacies of Vapiano's innovative approach, from its fresh ingredients and dynamic atmosphere to its data-driven operational model, shedding light on the elements that propelled its rapid success and transformed dining experiences. Before venturing into cities like Dusseldorf, Munich, and Frankfurt, Mark and his team perfect restaurant operations in Hamburg emphasizing their priority of quality growth over top-line growth at all costs. Despite rapid expansion in the early years, Vapiano maintains profitability, even catching the eye of industry giants like McDonald's. Yet, the further the expansion goes the more it brings operational challenges and increased costs, leading to significant investments and the accumulation of debt. In this post, we will continue on this thread but for better context and for those who haven’t done so already, I would encourage you to read Part 1 first. Vapiano P1: Italian Food Made in Germany (substack.com) Let's dig in.

More Growth

We are now five years into the Vapiano venture, and the customer profile is starting to shift away from the original plan. In the 2007 annual report is says: “The Vapiano concept was developed with the aim of giving professionals, working people a good opportunity to spend their lunch break. In the meantime, the customer base has expanded significantly to include families and tourists. The changes in the customer base have led to the occupancy of individual restaurants being spread throughout the day.” The management team is much focused on improving the experience and keeping things fresh, so that only five years after unveiling its first shop design, star designer Matteo Thun is still very much involved in the design process. Even as the broader Germany economy in 2008 slows to just 1% growth, the group keeps growing aggressively, although the pace of expansion in self-own and operated sites decelerates. Three new self-owned restaurants are opened, including a third one in Berlin. But more importantly the company uses the year to look inwards, optimizing own restaurants and expanding further the pool of franchisees. Five more franchise licenses are added in Germany and for the first time the UK is entered.
Testimony to the attractiveness of the concept is the fact that same-store-sales (a metric to measure revenue of a particular restaurant this year in comparison to the same restaurant’s revenue last year) across the board grows by 11%. The concept has broad appeal, there is strong organic growth and management is on top of its game here. When operating as a multi-site quick service restaurant chain like Vapiano, logistics and supply chains becomes key. You want to get your central functions so well-oiled, that opening new sites becomes cooky cutter, particularly when you want to attract new franchisees. Indeed, the concept and brand appeal are important factors to attract top quality franchisees but backend, support functions are equally important for the homogeneity of the products, the consistency of the brand and the customer experience. The group starts further deepening its relations to companies in the areas of goods trading, logistics and services which ensures that high quality products are procured, and supply chains are robust. Another focus for the group is to build supply contracts directly with manufacturers rather than going through middlemen, which leads to significant cost savings. And because of the aggressive role out of new restaurants it makes sense to enter a long-term system partnership for kitchen planning, kitchen construction and after sales service thereby significantly lowering the costs for opening a new site. From 2008 onwards, Vapiano manages to source the central kitchen for all new restaurants from a single source.
Overall, the group books another year of stellar growth reaching over 42 million euros in turnover. This is quadrupling the 10 million euros achieved just three years ago. This type of growth is extremely rare for a restaurant business. Operating profits are now close to 4.3 million euros but as in the prior year, seven million euros are invested back into growth and maintenance of the business. Fortunately, because of the strong operational cash flow and favorable working capital movements the overall debt burden only increases modestly.

Unique Ways

We are now in the year 2009 and things are progressing well for Vapiano. The following is good reminder that each business is unique, each restaurant concept is unique and while there are always similarities that can be applied, you always ought to go back to first principle of the value proposition, concept or business model at hand and build your thinking and strategy from the ground up, irrespective of how the “others” in the industry might be doing things. While your first intuition may lead you to believe that you would have to hire lots of cooks as the restaurant chain expands, the Vapiano concept demands something different. To that end the company is starting to implement a unique hiring procedure. Instead of conducting individual one-by-one interviews for cooking roles where induvial go through their CVs, a question-and-answer session and perhaps some practical cooking demonstration, prospective candidates are instead selected through casting events. For that purpose, all applicants are gathered in one venue, on one day, and given different task. This approach allows the company to assess the group dynamics and identify individuals who would fit in well. CEO Mirko Silz emphasizes the importance of a cheerful and spirited individual, as most of the work in front cooking revolves around interacting with guests. Being able to cook is simply not an important skill for the role here. The food is designed in a modular approach with a set menu, the execution of which can be trained within three days. Mirko says: “Our people have to be in good spirits and cheery, as 90 % of the work is in the front cooking area with guests. Someone who is shy has no chance with us. Our people act on the big stage. I always say: everything disappears, character remains.” The firm needs entertainers, not cooks.
​
https://preview.redd.it/jc10vndno0yc1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f9fa449bdaa87063e2627c3f72a7e10f6a22299
​
In terms of the general economy, we are now in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crises. Germany is now in a full-blown recession and is experiencing a 5.7% contraction in its economic activity. Times are tough but Vapiano is unfazed. To the contrary, the group’s growth explodes. Four own-operated sites, four Joint Ventures, additional franchisee sites and new licenses are added so that by the end of the year there is a grant total of 55 restaurants across 12 European countries. The network sees growth in various German cities, including additional sites in Munich, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, and Berlin with a total of 37 self-operated sites in Germany alone.
It’s common in franchising, for one franchisee to have multiple sites, especially if they are good operators. Big if and if they can prove that they can implement a process and local management that ensures smooth operations in one site freeing up own attention capacity to take on another site. Not a small challenge but if that happens it’s a win-win situation for both as the group knows they are partnering with a known and proven operator, generating additional revenues and profits and it’s great for the franchisee as he can grow his business portfolio with partners he knows, trusts and issues that have been battletested.
The whole apparatus starts to work like a well-oiled machine. Revenue jumps by 56% to almost 69 million euros, operating profits reach 9.5 million euros. Impressive. Strong growth is there, yes, but it’s expensive. The expansion involves big sites, each requiring over one million euros in capital expenditure and a substantial amount of footfall to cover operating costs and recoup the initial capital outlay. 23 million euros are spent on capex but because operating cash f low is not sufficient to cover all costs the company needs to borrow an additional 12.5 million euros and raise c. 4 million in equity from investors. Through this equity round a new set of investors are joining the company, Hans-Joachim Sander (who also joins the advisory board) and Gisa Sander. The two are heirs to the very well-known German cosmetics label "Wella".
Things are changing now. Gregor Gerlach, one of the founding investors, is now leading the supervisory board. He is stepping forward and expresses the intention for Vapiano to accelerate its growth, particularly internationally, in countries where there’s presence already. This is a logical strategic move, capitalizing on local brand recognition that has been built, leveraging local suppliers and knowledge, ensuring a smoother international expansion process. Amidst all the group’s success, a small cautionary note emerges. In September of 2009, a recently opened restaurant is facing insolvency. Although in the beginning the site is experiencing footfall and spent per the plan, the location is starting to experience atypical sales development thereafter. This is certainly new. The group decides it isn’t feasible running the property independently, emphasizing the need for the personal commitment of entrepreneurs, particularly in small and medium-sized cities. This might be a nothing burger – pun intended – but time will tell.
Fun fact: all olive trees in the restaurants are real and sourced directly from Italy, handpicked for every location.
https://preview.redd.it/16tkyhxqo0yc1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa2e7dd59977af4c2c86536fe381c962de897be6

Changing Ways

In the following year, 2010, the entire gastronomy industry in Germany is contracting by 0.4%. Not Vapiano however. The group is still growing sites and revenue climbs from 69 million to 85 million euros with operating profits jumping above 10 million for the first time in the company’s history. Most of the cash generated from operations is used for the expansion with the remaining cash used to repay some of the 27-million-euro debt load it has outstanding by year end 2009.
Something feels different though. Yes, there is top line growth, but the rate of growth is slowing and interestingly the operating margin is falling as well, even if ever so slightly. Slippage creeping in? That year the group starts to explore projects that are tangent to the business but are arguably beyond its core competency. New concepts are being introduce such as the loyalty program that can be used by customers across all of Europe which is great for data collection purposes and building customer habit and stickiness. A female oriented magazine called “Vapiano Lady’s” is now being published. The “Viva Oliva” campaign is founded: an Olive Tree Festival which begins on Easter Sunday and runs for two weeks. During the time of “Viva Oliva” special attention is paid to products with olive content and in 2011, the Olive Tree Festival format is expanded to Vapiano restaurants abroad. All these new elements are designed to build customer connections and brand loyalty. Interestingly the same year, while all these new project and elements are starting up, perhaps a time to internally consolidate and clean up, the company announces it would abandon its current growth strategy and replace it with one that is much more aggressive. The new goal: doubling the number of sites from 2011 and 2014. Remember that we are now starting from a much larger base than the years before. The big focus is Europe, pushing the concept of “Fresh Casual Dining”, a category the company has invented in the German market. Based on the raw data it makes sense to hit the accelerator, after all same store sales (or Like-for-Like, LfL) grows 9% in Europe, clearly there is good demand for the product. What plays into management’s ambition and believes at the time, is the change ways of eating habits across Europe. The trend is moving away from heavy and fatty foods towards fresh and healthy meals and management is keen to lean into this, capitalising on customers embracing their newly found love for fresh and healthy foods.
While all of this is unfolding, a telltale sign emerges on the horizon. In 2011 the original co-founders and shareholders Kent Hahne, Klaus Rader, Friedemann Findeis are selling their Vapiano ownership stakes. Kent Hahne was responsible for the company’s international expansion from 2004 to 2011, and he keeps several restaurants as a franchisee but in 2015 he would sell these restaurants too. Insiders and founders selling in the middle of an expansionary path can have many different reasons, so there is no point to speculate. What I will say however is that there is only one reason why founders and insiders keep their stake. All three men, Hahne, Rader and Findeis would later play a vital role in Vapiano’s fierce competitor, L’Osteria.
The same year a new investor with a 40% stake emerges: Mayfair. Mayfair is the family office of Günter Herz and his sister Daniela Herz-Schnoeckl, heirs to the German multi-billion-euro empire Tchibo. Mayfair’s investment is not a simple silent equity stake in the business but is meant to support the company’s ambitious international and general expansion plans. Mirko Silz, CEO since 2006, leaves the company. He was the one who managed the rapid development phase as a central figure, the multi-city expansion and densification, the internationalization, the brand management and the implementation of systems, all success to date were done under his leadership. The second phase of Vapiano’s growth story, from 2006 until now, 2011, is now ending and a new era, one more heavily influenced by large capital and Mayfair is beginning. There is no official record on this, but Mirko apparently was uncomfortable with the speed of expansion that the new owners were aiming for with an eventual IPO in a couple of years. Whatever the reason for his departure, Gregor Gerlach has now become CEO and is pushing global expansion even harder. Amusingly, Mirko would later join his old companions Hahne, Rader and Findeis, becoming an important character in Vapiano’s competitor, L’Osteria. The remaining 60% stake of Vapiano is now held by the Sander couple and Gregor Gerlach.
In terms of revenue, it’s another stellar year. For the very first time in the company’s short history, it hits the 100 million euros turnover mark, new owned and franchised restaurants are being opened while debt grows to almost 30 million euros. 33 own restaurants are now operational across Europe and there are over 100 Vapiano restaurants globally with 11 in the USA, four in South Korea, three in Saudi Arabia, two in Australia, one in Lebanon, Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey. It’s a tremendous effort by the company and the team to achieve this level of global of presences so rapidly. It’s far easier to comment in these situations from the sidelines but one does start to wonder whether an organization that size, structure, and experience can truly handle this kind of rapid expansion, even with the highest level of management talent. After all this isn’t a software company that can easily scale centrally, it’s an on-the ground, people, process, and operations heavy restaurant business.
Anyway, the loyalty program is a big success, and several tens of thousands of customers are enrolling into it. But on the financial side, cracks are starting to emerge. While gross margins are holding up steadily and nicely at 74% (75% in prior years) operating margins are slipping further, from 12% to 9%. The operating profit of the business is now 9 million euros, this is less than in the previous year even though revenue has gone up by almost 20 million euros. Management says this is due to expenses related to the changes in management and unscheduled depreciation charges on licenses and usage rights. Unfortunately, I can’t strip these costs out, as they are not broken out or explained in the annual report. Same store sales (or Like-for-Like, LfL) in Europe are increasing by 20% which is a great sign to see (although there is no split between fully ramped and newer sites), demand for the company’s product certainly seems to be there. Just to give you a bit of a flavour on how ambitious Mayfair was with Vapiano. The Mayfair family office itself is in Hamburg and at the time, in 2011, there are three Vapianos in Hamburg. Mayfair’s goal was to increase that number from the current three to a total of six to ten restaurants in Hamburg alone. So, between 2012 and 2014 the expansion train continues. Revenue in 2012 grows to 118 million euros, albeit at a slower pace, and the company’s debt load increases to over 43 million. Net debt is now three times the size of the company’s operating profits, which is manageable and but it’s certainly not prudent.
Operationally, the Company is busy with things beyond cooking good food and creating a good atmosphere for guests. Loyalty programs are being rolled out, the company becomes very active on social media, starts investing in online blogs, and launches a new website where Vapiano merchandise and gift cards can be bought.
​
https://preview.redd.it/z5cixr1uo0yc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a8fb1a9cb79aef56b0ec912b3dc1fc70d50966c
One year later growth slows further to 16%, revenue now reaching 136 million euros with gross margin holding up at roughly 75% but the operating profits slipping to its lowest point in years to only 7% of revenue or 9.6 million euros. The capital expenditures for tangibles like property, plant and equipment and intangibles like software and licenses, a.k.a. capex, is now so large, 20+ million euros, twice the size of the operating income of the business, that 14 million euros of new debt and 3 million euros in equity are raised. Total debt now stands at over 57 million euros with 4.5 million cash at hand. Net debt in relation to operating profits is now over five times. This is now a seriously leveraged business.
We are now in the year 2013 and 20 new sites are being opened. The total number of restaurants in the network grows to 139 with presence in 27 countries. Without a doubt this type of presence raises the awareness of the brand amongst consumers. Interestingly though, the company no longer speaks about same-store-sales growth in its annual report. That year, many events are hosted by the company, all aimed at bringing the customers closer to the Vapiano brand. To that end, headcount in HQ is starting to grow and the total number of employees grows by 512 to 2,928 in one year. An increase of 21% while revenue grows by 15%. As always with increasing size, the organization becomes less efficient and personal costs as percentage of revenue increase from 36% in the prior year to 38% now. A new and refreshed design concept is introduced by our old friend Matteo Thun and rolled out, starting in Berlin. By this time Vapiano is 11 years old and the glossy shine of the new, fresh, up-and coming Italian restaurant is starting to fade.
In all its previous years, the company was proud of the fact that it didn’t need any expansive and fancy marketing for its growth and was mostly driven by word of mouth, organically. This is now changing, and the group establishes its own marketing firm, Vapiano International Marketing GmbH. The new “Viva Oliva”, “Vapiano Ladies-Night” and “Vapiano-KIDs” events are all held in 2013 and a new marketing project is launched in 2014, a campaign with the name "HOME OF FRESHNESS". There is also a "HOME OF FRESHNESS" b2c film being developed, adaptable to different country preferences and the Vapiano “Photo Pool” is expanded for better image materials. A new Vapiano Design 2.0 concept is being introduced, a development of a standalone Vapiano restaurant in Fürth, Germany is introduced, and an improved bar concept. A lot of stuff is happening here.
In April 2014 CEO Gregor Gerlach tells the business paper WirtschaftsWoche that he wants to double the number of restaurants every three years. To that end the group is planning to build its own real estate, like McDonalds does at times. The Company calls these Freestander – a freely standing restaurant away from the city centre. The reason behind this is that when you go into smaller cities, it requires a different format where you can no longer look for empty space in central areas. This is a clear shift (or addition) from (or to) the previous model. With this strategy the group could target city peripheries and Autobahn stops, thereby capturing more customer traffic. This is starting to sound very different from the metropolitan client base that the group once was targeting. Some of that initial alure and magic is being lost by pursuing this strategy and the question arises if that is compromising the appeal of the other locations in the network by taking this step. But strong growth ambitions and lack of sufficient white space requires a change in strategy.
The new business projects don’t end there. The company introduces a drinks brand, Vapiano ICE TEA, with four flavour varieties, that are being rolled out in several European countries. A new app is introduced to replace the loyalty card and the company’s website is further developed. The loyalty program, VAPIANO PEOPLE is expanded into Sweden and the Netherlands gaining around 24,000 new members in 2014, a 15% increase from the previous year. The corporate design is further revised and so is the restaurant’s menu. Vapiano partners with star chef Cornelia Poletto to create new recipes but also encourages its own cooks and staff to suggest new recipes. It’s difficult to assess if this because dishes are getting stale or if it simply managements plan to extend the breadth of the menu with things like the specials. Other large Corporates, like McDonalds, run similar strategies where the classics are offered all year long while specials are introduced to the menu every so often to bring in some variety for those who are open to experiment and looking for new tastes and experiences without losing the popular dishes that have gained legitimacy and love by the customer over decades.
The Company is starting to introduce new events. For example, on October 22nd, Vapiano celebrates its birthday with a special event known as Vapiano Day. On that day, all employees in global support functions join the restaurant teams to actively participate in the daily operations. It’s aimed to enhance collaboration between the restaurant staff and administrative personnel, fostering improved teamwork. A concept that most firms should adopt in my view. Further, throughout the year, the company also runs various activities engaging both guests and Vapiano staff, an effort designed to strengthen the connections with regular guests. There is a lot going on here, it’s hard to keep track. There is a hard push and investments being made into the Vapiano brand and keeping the customer engaged. The average spent per customer in the group increases by 3% compared to the previous year and the number of total guests increases by 6% to over 14 million across all restaurants. It’s however not clear how much of that 6% is organic grow, i.e. more guests in the same restaurants, and how much comes from new restaurant openings. One can tell from the language in the annual report that the front end of the business is running faster than the back end. There is language around changing and harmonising IT structures without having to rely too heavily on restaurant staff on the ground. Simultaneously the company is trying to have a tighter central grip by building a team that standardizes functions, processes, and guidelines. All these initiatives, products and events are happening while sales outside of Europe are actually shrinking by 1.3% to which CEO Gregor Gerlach, attributes operational hick-ups and having partnered with the wrong local people. Are you spreading yourself too thinly? One word pops up for the first time in the 2014 annual report that I haven’t heard or read before in the context of Vapiano. That word is “lifestyle”. For the first time the company calls itself a lifestyle brand. I am not sure what direction this restaurant chain is taking here but it’s becoming increasingly clear that more elements are added around the core competency and concept of providing fresh, tasty food in a positive and welcoming atmosphere. I will say however, that as an outsider standing by the sidelines, it’s always much, much easy to make suggestions and comments than being in the arena yourself.
Anyways, during the year, as it has been the case in all previous years, new sites are being opened. The f final count by the end the year: 152 restaurants in 29 countries. Revenue grows to 152 million euros, but the rate of growth slows yet again to 12% from 16% in the previous year. The base effect is kicking in. Simultaneously personnel expenses grow 13%, further deteriorating margins. Gross margins are stable at 77%, an exceptionally good margin by the way, but operating margins further slips to 6%. The group’s operating profits with 9.5 million euros is now below the previous year, even though turnover grew by almost 15 million. You don’t need to be business genius to understand that there are too many corporate shenanigans happening here, with magazines, periphery products and events that blow up overheads and distracts from the core business that could be incredibly profitable. From 2011 to 2014 the company’s administrative costs increase by 120% to more than 20 million euros. The cost of employee training increases by 50%. There is a level of professionalism and back office investment necessary for the international expansion and that doesn’t come cheap. All the while, operationally, the US-business is struggling. Two US-locations are shutting down and a new management team is trying the turn things around. Vapiano’s proposition and core strength is freshness, atmosphere, and design, not something the average American quick service restaurant eater cares much for. The group’s operating cash flow is 19 million euros that year covering all capital expenditures for site openings, maintenance of the existing portfolio and the remodeling with the refreshed design. No debt or equity is raised, instead 2.1 million euros of debt is repaid.
Capitalism is working here at all times and in a capitalistic system, economic success attracts competition. Vapiano is increasingly fighting a wave of new chains popping up, all chasing the same mouths. Brands like Dean & David (salads), Hans im Glück (burgers), L’Osteria (pizza and pasta), BackWerk (bakery) and many others are all trying to grab a piece of the, albeit growing, pie – yes, pun intended. Even ex-Porsche CEO Wendelin Wiedeking wants a piece of the action and starts his own pizza & pasta chain called Tialini and when launched in 2013 the concept was aiming for 20 sites in the medium term. There are five in place today. Finding a concept with broad market fit and then executing and scaling it in a competitive market is not easy. Vapiano had first mover advantages, executed growth well initially and through its achieved scale had a capital as an advantage.
But things are about to get spicy here at Vapiano, so stay tuned.
If you enjoyed the read, sign up here: WIP Thomas Weitzendoerfer Substack

Another absolutely incredible post-merge episode of this season, and the first in a long time to include a moment that will forever go down as iconic in Survivor history. But how does Liz's Applebees breakdown factor into my contender rankings this week? And does Q really have a zero percent chance of winning this game?
Who is my top contender? ...

1. Kenzie. (-) If this season has a traditional winner's edit, I'm now at around 95% all in on Kenzie. This episode was as squeaky clean as you can get for a person who has been left out of the vote. We heard her opinions on why she still doesn't want to work with Q, and undermined him with her confessionals on why she can't be bought with a reward. On the reward, she was shielded from the negativity of the mass waste of Liz's favourite burger, as she was given the confessional time to explain her remorse for leaving the food and how she felt bad for Liz. She was also given complex confessionals explaining her strategy on backing off of Tiffany, noting that it was too early to make the move. Given Maria's edit, I think the move will bounce back on her next week, justifying Kenzie not wanting to be a part of the vote, and potentially getting her revenge for being left out. Now that Tiffany is gone, I can really see Kenzie's story line taking shape about being the one to take down the dragon in the back half of the game. Who is that dragon you ask? Nobody has the dragon edit you say? Well, I present to you - Charlie AND Maria. It's mirrored even in the opening titles, this is a player with two heads, and they have been controlling every vote since the merge undetected from the middle of the pack. I believe that Kenzie will gather up her new allies Ben and Venus and start making some moves against them, finding herself in a win-win-win-win final grouping of Venus, Ben, Q , and Liz. I'm only 95% certain, because I think there is still a chance that she is our fallen angel, and in that case we would either be getting a win from my number 2 contender, or a WTF winner. I'll also note that I'm no longer concerned about her over-exposure - her edit since the merge has been solid but not overbearing, and her pre-merge can be explained by her literally being at the centre of all the pre-merge drama.

Who is my only other (traditional) contender? ...

• Charlie. (-) If Kenzie doesn't win and its a traditional edit, then Charlie has to be the winner as the only other player with consistent positive personal and strategic content, as well as a continuing focus in the edit. But he still doesn't feel very winner-y to me, and I think that's because he is actually part 2 of the dragon. Now that Hunter has gone, he has become a physical force, and I expect to see him deep into the game because of this. He and Maria have been controlling everything, but it struck me this episode that in order for Maria's edit to spike, Charlie has to get cool down, and I think the reason for this is that they are two halves of the same edit. A lot of their content is also literally Maria saying 'Charlie and I' or Charlie saying 'Maria and I'. I think Charlie is just getting the bulk of the content because he's a better narrator and he's going to outlast Maria.

But what if it isn't a traditional winner's edit? Who are my WTF contenders? ...

• Q. (+4) Q's edit has been very good if you remove all negativity. And even after all the negativity, the main narrative for Q is that he'll never quit, and he's still in this game. Now, arguably, he has tried to quit multiple times, and he has been massively undermined. But I think if neither Kenzie or Charlie were going to win, I could see Q claiming victory over a combination of Venus, Liz. and Ben. Yes, he's all over the place, but as his subtitled pre-merge quote stated ... whackadoodles win.
• Liz. (-) This was a great episode for Liz if you disregard any potential negativity from her reaction at the reward challenge. And honestly, I kind of do disregard it, because it was surrounded by strong personal content for Liz that justified her reaction, and we even got content after where she was shown to be self aware that she shouldn't have reacted like she did. If we are getting a WTF winner, her story line has really started to get going, and it wouldn't be TOO surprising if she were to pull it off over two of the others in the goat pool at the end of the game. If we are getting a traditional winner's edit, this feels like a losing finalist edit to me.
• Ben. (-2) I'm starting to drop on Ben massively, and I'm not even sure he wins in a WTF scenario anymore. He barely got any content of note again this episode, with his only confessional used to justify Liz's challenge reaction. He could still win against the goat pool based on social game alone, but I realistically think he's either losing to Kenzie or Charlie, or he's maybe the fire making loser. I don't see any reason why he gets voted out.

Who is not winning under any circumstance? ...

• Maria. (-1) She's been far too quiet since the premiere, her edit has been shared unequally with Charlie, and the last two episodes have done a perfect job of narratively setting up for her to be taken out next week - the next in a long line of blindsides of people pulling off moves too early.
• Venus. (-1) I think Venus is the zero vote finalist under every circumstance. The groundwork has been laid for her to claim moves that aren't hers at final tribal, and she's fully pushed through the danger zone to the area where goats are now safe to walk to the end. Also, her second episode with zero confessionals last night, and all winners thus far have had a confessional in every episode.

https://preview.redd.it/olbs4stk70yc1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c421d525e025f944f9c11026fd91aae5be9272f

I never go over broad on hating someone, but I deadass hate this man so much with all of my heart, idc if it’s dickriding or whatever I hate him so much he so annoying and he’s a unoriginal piece of shit who has a ego just cuz he copy other designs and say it’s his “style” even his appearance alone is fucking annoying he’s 50 IBS so anyone can beat the shit out of him and he blocks mfs cuz he’s a crybaby bitch. I hope nothing but pain and suffering for this man I truly hate this man so much. he takes so many jobs from good graphic designers I hope he gets fired and has to work at McDonald’s flipping my burger