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"Not a single human being on this planet ever saw the universe."
Grand Arbiter Albert XLIII further declared, on their return 37 years after the last broadcast failed in the middle of explaining the secrets of the universe to us.
"What you are seeing is an image of the universe that your brain created to make sense of your surroundings. A mirage, an infinitely imperfect approximation. And there are roughly 8 Billion such approximations on this planet, not even counting non-human entities. We have observed you recently - debating wether the harmonic frequencies of light hitting the rods and cones of your eyes actually generate the same image of color in your brain for all of you equally, and you came to the conclusion that they might not. That everybodies version of "red" or "blue" might be ever so slightly, or completely different. We found it amusing that you aren't drawing the same conclusion to, well, everything else. Through the scientific method and communication accelerators like the Internet, your species managed to align big chunks of those "mirage universes" in your brains, but other areas not touched by the scientific method are left completely unexplored, and therefore to the imagination of the individual. Which lead to many "unfortunate misunderstandings" among you. But make no mistake, even after this global alignment of mirages, the universe inside your mind is still infinitely wrong in the grand scheme of things and unlike any other imagined universe of your peers. Your scientific method suggests the use of calibrated measurement devices that aren't biased by human error to gain knowledge of your surroundings. Which is brilliant, we might add. Your species came up with this kind of technology very early compared to similar lifeforms in other universes. You use these devices to create a "ground truth" from which you reference the rest of your conclusions and predictions. This enabled you to make predictions about the "real universe" you find yourself in, even with this fundamental error underlying your logic system. Either brilliant, or unfathomly lucky. It doesn't really matter. You can pat yourselves on the backs for that.
However, amusingly, you failed to find the crucial detail about the one fundamental, yet completely uncalibrated device at the bottom of everything - your brain - and the sensory organs as extensions of it. No single eye on this planet is the same, no nose, no ears, everything differs ever so slightly. Every brain is folded and twisted differently.
Therefore, what you are observing, and what your scientists are finding models for, is not the real universe. It is the image of this universe your brain creates for you, that makes sense to most of you and that most of your brains are able to understand and find agreement on. Nothing more, nothing less. Especially the intricacies that you are now finding in the infinitissimally small scales and the unfathomly large scales (you curiously still differentiate these two concepts, we observed) are the footprints that the architecture of your brain leaves on these mirage universes. You find numbers everywhere and turn everything into a more and more digital version of nature because the axons that are part of your neurons generate activation signals in a digital, all or nothing kind of way. This part of the brain is what you evolved to use for, among others, your logic systems. Your thinking is in large parts digital, so most of your logic is too. This has gone so far that some of you now think you are actually living in a computer simulation. In some regards, you do, but there is no cosmic entity that generated this simulation and put you in it. You are creating this simulation yourself, in your brain, as a means to maneuver your way around actual physical reality. Imagine having to memorize a picture, but your sensory input systems only allowed you to see one pixel at a time, chosen completely at random, without any reference as to where that pixel is located in the frame. So, you found chunking techniques, the help of your collective hive mind and ideas of particularly eccentric members of your society, to bit by bit close in on a mostly impossible task. But without a paradigm shift on your end, the entirety of the original picture will stay in the shadows of reality.
You created tools like algebra and geometry to circumvent the fact that your logic is mostly digital as a simulacrum of analog information, but for how remarkably useful it is for you to make predictions, it is to what is happening in the real world like what an abacus is to a personal computer. Sure, if you enter '1 + 1', in their own ways, both give you '2'. But one is the tip to the others impossibly large iceberg. It is a sensible abstraction. But it is nowhere close to being an accurate description of what is actually happening or in what ways it useful to you.
We don't want to discourage you by saying this. Your approach, even if it happened out of sheer luck, is brilliant. It really makes the best out of the limitations that you have by your sensory organs and the architecture of your brains. Once a few evolutionary steps later your brain can conceive of more complex logical patterns and images, you will get closer and closer to having an actual copy of the real universe in front of your minds eye. Through the scientific method, you are already optimizing for this. Again, given your species' age, you have developed such a technique incredibly quickly. But what you are doing is finding (very smart) workarounds over a fundamental error you all have in common.
My lifeform, which isn't too unlike yours, just much "older", has taken a different approach in its early stages. Our biggest thinkers found early on that the answers lie within. So for millenia, we focussed our exploration on finding our deepest and truest selves, once we started to move past basic survival instincts, that is. Only after many, many "quantum leaps" in the area of self discovery in the individual and the societal level, we started to artificially accelerate our communication, and overcome physical limitations through technology. It was a slower approach in the beginning, but once we got there, our intellectual growth was exponentially explosive. The time it took us to move from living in basic, mostly local communities that lived off the land - to bending our universe to our wills - was about the time between you writing your currently most popular spiritual fiction and landing on your planets moon for the first time. Note the actual durations might differ greatly, as the concept you call time is very different in our universe and we still haven't fully studied yours.
Anyways. After this event we call "universal reframing", everything else just... fell into place.
Our strategy basically was to, first, fully align our mental universes. And then to perform a depth search from a common starting point. You seemed to have rushed over a few of the crucial bits as soon as the first approach turned out to be useful. Actually, all of the bits but one. It must be a terribly confusing existence that you are living. We can only make an attempt to relate, as our evolutionary strand optimized for alignment before curiousity. That, you could say, was our dumb luck.
Are there any questions so far?"
There was a puzzling silence in an area packed with an amount of people that would normally be present at music festivals or presidential inaugurations. For an event of this magnitude, the stage was sparsely decorated and included only the necessities. Like last time, the visit was spontaneos and unannounced. Or maybe, like last time, we just didn't understand the announcement message, as it might have again came in the form of a formerly undiscovered particle, a seemingly arbitrary number of years prior to this event. They must think they are really funny.
One of the humans chosen as representative of the planet raised their hand.
"Please, speak. As always. Our 'time' is very limited."
"If I didn't misunderstand this: You said, our brains are basically creating what we call 'simulations' for ourselves, in our mind, to make sense of the actual universe we are in and base our actions on. Is this correct?"
"Based on the very crude definition your species has for the word 'correct' I would say 'yes, that is correct.'"
"And these simulations are getting closer and closer to the real deal, right? But what if, say, we didn't want the real deal. What if we liked our own personal pocket universes and instead wanted to bend that one to our own wills instead of the real one? You said we are bad at alignment and I would agree to the point where I say we probably go extinct to our own stupidity before we all agree on even one single thing. Can't we just use your knowledge to just, manifest things into our universe just by thinking about it, like in the movie Matrix, which might have crossed your desk while researching us. Great Movie."
"It did indeed. It is esteemed by my lifeform as what you would call 'slapstick comedy'. Since we moved past what constituted our form of entertainment, the media from your universe has become very popular among my peers. It is by sending samples back to our universe how we finance the probes we are sending here."
"You still have money?"
"I was making - what you call - a joke. Never heard of it in the context of a movie, but that title is immensely funny to me given the circumstances. Anyway, you wanted to know how to bend your 'simulated universe' around you. Alright. You might be slightly dissappointed by the beginning of my explanation, but listen till the end. And make of that what you will.
Let's start by what you mean by 'manifest' exactly. As the inaccuracy of your communication patterns shall not be a hindrance to this mentorship."
"Well... I imagine it. And then it sort of poofs into existence?"
"Understood. Actually, I will start explaning how you perform this action in the actual universe you are in, before I make the transfer to how you do it in the imagined one in your brain."
"Uh.. ok?"
"What would you like to be manifested?"
"I don't know. How about we go nice and easy with a cone of ice cream and start from there?"
"So be it. So, we start imagining the cone of ice cream. What does it consist off? Milk, sugar, eggs, and some smaller additions to suit your individuals taste buds. Let's begin with milk. You are getting it from cows (a practice my society finds quite alienating. We, too, have to get used to the wildly varying customs of lifeforms of the universes). Cows can be domesticated and bred, but first, we would have to overcome the physical distance between us, and a few locations on this planet. For that, I would advice designing and constructing a vehicle that is capa..."
"Oh come on, that's how we manifest things? We go and make them ourselves?? Oh wow, thanks a lot mister transcendant being. So the rest of the stuff you told us was also bullshit?"
"Please refrain from jumping to conclusions without the full picture in mind, even if it is in your existences nature to do so. Alright, so let me offer you a shortcut."
"Please do."
"I know of a location just a few human paces down this road, where you can exchange currency for a cone of ice cream."
"Seriously?"
"Yes."
"What the hell is the point of this?"
"The point is, once again: you - misunderstanding your existence. Especially in conjunction with your incredibly limited ability to verbalize concepts using your own vocabulary. You are barely at the point of being able to convey emotions in every day speech, and are now expecting to understand high level 4 dimensional concepts after just a few of your incredibly inaccurate words. Tell me now, please: What do you perceive as the difference of these two scenarios I just mentioned? In a temporal manner and in the energy required?"
"Well, it would be much easier and faster to just go down the road and buy a cone of ice cream, but that isn't tremendously astounding information to us, you have to understand."
"'Much'? Let's give this word, 'much', a bit of a frame of reference. The differences between these scenarios are: About 15000 years of agriculture and animal husbandry; countless inventions that led to your current state of technology which allows for refrigeration in a way advanced enough to get the ice cream to just the right texture that your modern palate is accustomed to; An education system that allows for such inventions to occur in time for you to be standing here, demanding ice cream, and actually getting it. Not mentioning the infrastructure that makes you bridge the physical distances of every single time any of these steps needed anything. And meanwhile destroying the naturally occuring resources of your planet bit by bit.
Or, scenario 2: You take the money that you got from staring at a computer screen for about 7 minutes, choose one of the ice cream parlors that your civilization made sure to be on average a 30 minutes driving distance from every single living human. (You aren't very good at even distributions though, we found.). And go and get that ice cream. Even including the infrastructural costs existing now, we have narrowed this process down from not even being close to a reality for thousands of generations to being at most 30 minutes away and dirt cheap, assuming an amount of efficient preparation, that is part of the technology that lead you here.
If you ask me, between scenario 1 and 2, you became so many orders of magnitude closer to 'poofing it into existence' that a human mind has troubles comprehending it. And therefore, appreciating it. From '0% of the human population has access to this within their lifetime and no one will for the next couple millenia' to 'Over half the human population has access to this within 30 minutes", taking into account the total timespan, the amount of events that had to occur and the amount of incremental learnings that had to accumulate, for this to happen even once for anybody, I believe the time and energy you have to exert to access your ice cream cone right now is a rounding error in the grand scheme of things. And you aren't even close to finishing your development as humans - if you manage to not kill yourself somehow.
You are constantly manifesting things into reality, the only issue is that you severely and heavily underestimate what it means 'to imagine a thing'.
Please allow my vanity, but this is an important lesson for the following part that you are, I'm afraid, more interested in. How to do that in your head. And potentially much faster. Well assuming thaXXXxxxx----.----."
"Oh wow, not again. Mighty convenient this always happens right when it gets interesting."
"First, you have to understand that.,.......... The limitations of spacetime that you perceive.... are not present in nature..... nature is infinitely 'dimensional', and in fact XXxxx.....----..--.-.- has no concept for infinity....-.-.--. it is a human made.....-.-.-.- model to describe a perfectly natural phenomenon you lack the words for at this time..._xxxx.xxx-x---.-.--.-zzzz."
"Come on, speak faster! The battery is dying again!"
" ...physical distance...S;.,.XXXxx...currently a big bottleneck for your progres...asd.döö,,,, is also a limitation of your cortex, not nature,.....-as.d.sa......the concept of an 'extent' only exists from certain frames of references..-.-..-.a.ss.a.as.... in others everything is....a.s-d.-.---.-..-xxxx on top of each other, overlapping each other in what you call 'time' AND 'space'"
"...XXXxsasad Listen."
"I am running out of time again humans. The Hopf Fibration. It is a great first step. But move away from your digital thinking. Treat your numbers. .aD;,aC:.x.cx.ac,.as,dca.s like your waves...CKLUJCJUCCLICK"
The broadcast stopped.
"I never know if these things make me smarter, or dumber. Sadly the alien is gone now so it can't tell me that there actually is no smart or dumb."

"Not a single human being on this planet ever saw the universe."
Grand Arbiter Albert XLIII further declared, on their return 37 years after the last broadcast failed in the middle of explaining the secrets of the universe to us.
"What you are seeing is an image of the universe that your brain created to make sense of your surroundings. A mirage, an infinitely imperfect approximation. And there are roughly 8 Billion such approximations on this planet, not even counting non-human entities. We have observed you recently - debating wether the harmonic frequencies of light hitting the rods and cones of your eyes actually generate the same image of color in your brain for all of you equally, and you came to the conclusion that they might not. That everybodies version of "red" or "blue" might be ever so slightly, or completely different. We found it amusing that you aren't drawing the same conclusion to, well, everything else. Through the scientific method and communication accelerators like the Internet, your species managed to align big chunks of those "mirage universes" in your brains, but other areas not touched by the scientific method are left completely unexplored, and therefore to the imagination of the individual. Which lead to many "unfortunate misunderstandings" among you. But make no mistake, even after this global alignment of mirages, the universe inside your mind is still infinitely wrong in the grand scheme of things and unlike any other imagined universe of your peers. Your scientific method suggests the use of calibrated measurement devices that aren't biased by human error to gain knowledge of your surroundings. Which is brilliant, we might add. Your species came up with this kind of technology very early compared to similar lifeforms in other universes. You use these devices to create a "ground truth" from which you reference the rest of your conclusions and predictions. This enabled you to make predictions about the "real universe" you find yourself in, even with this fundamental error underlying your logic system. Either brilliant, or unfathomly lucky. It doesn't really matter. You can pat yourselves on the backs for that.
However, amusingly, you failed to find the crucial detail about the one fundamental, yet completely uncalibrated device at the bottom of everything - your brain - and the sensory organs as extensions of it. No single eye on this planet is the same, no nose, no ears, everything differs ever so slightly. Every brain is folded and twisted differently.
Therefore, what you are observing, and what your scientists are finding models for, is not the real universe. It is the image of this universe your brain creates for you, that makes sense to most of you and that most of your brains are able to understand and find agreement on. Nothing more, nothing less. Especially the intricacies that you are now finding in the infinitissimally small scales and the unfathomly large scales (you curiously still differentiate these two concepts, we observed) are the footprints that the architecture of your brain leaves on these mirage universes. You find numbers everywhere and turn everything into a more and more digital version of nature because the axons that are part of your neurons generate activation signals in a digital, all or nothing kind of way. This part of the brain is what you evolved to use for, among others, your logic systems. Your thinking is in large parts digital, so most of your logic is too. This has gone so far that some of you now think you are actually living in a computer simulation. In some regards, you do, but there is no cosmic entity that generated this simulation and put you in it. You are creating this simulation yourself, in your brain, as a means to maneuver your way around actual physical reality. Imagine having to memorize a picture, but your sensory input systems only allowed you to see one pixel at a time, chosen completely at random, without any reference as to where that pixel is located in the frame. So, you found chunking techniques, the help of your collective hive mind and ideas of particularly eccentric members of your society, to bit by bit close in on a mostly impossible task. But without a paradigm shift on your end, the entirety of the original picture will stay in the shadows of reality.
You created tools like algebra and geometry to circumvent the fact that your logic is mostly digital as a simulacrum of analog information, but for how remarkably useful it is for you to make predictions, it is to what is happening in the real world like what an abacus is to a personal computer. Sure, if you enter '1 + 1', in their own ways, both give you '2'. But one is the tip to the others impossibly large iceberg. It is a sensible abstraction. But it is nowhere close to being an accurate description of what is actually happening or in what ways it useful to you.
We don't want to discourage you by saying this. Your approach, even if it happened out of sheer luck, is brilliant. It really makes the best out of the limitations that you have by your sensory organs and the architecture of your brains. Once a few evolutionary steps later your brain can conceive of more complex logical patterns and images, you will get closer and closer to having an actual copy of the real universe in front of your minds eye. Through the scientific method, you are already optimizing for this. Again, given your species' age, you have developed such a technique incredibly quickly. But what you are doing is finding (very smart) workarounds over a fundamental error you all have in common.
My lifeform, which isn't too unlike yours, just much "older", has taken a different approach in its early stages. Our biggest thinkers found early on that the answers lie within. So for millenia, we focussed our exploration on finding our deepest and truest selves, once we started to move past basic survival instincts, that is. Only after many, many "quantum leaps" in the area of self discovery in the individual and the societal level, we started to artificially accelerate our communication, and overcome physical limitations through technology. It was a slower approach in the beginning, but once we got there, our intellectual growth was exponentially explosive. The time it took us to move from living in basic, mostly local communities that lived off the land - to bending our universe to our wills - was about the time between you writing your currently most popular spiritual fiction and landing on your planets moon for the first time. Note the actual durations might differ greatly, as the concept you call time is very different in our universe and we still haven't fully studied yours.
Anyways. After this event we call "universal reframing", everything else just... fell into place.
Our strategy basically was to, first, fully align our mental universes. And then to perform a depth search from a common starting point. You seemed to have rushed over a few of the crucial bits as soon as the first approach turned out to be useful. Actually, all of the bits but one. It must be a terribly confusing existence that you are living. We can only make an attempt to relate, as our evolutionary strand optimized for alignment before curiousity. That, you could say, was our dumb luck.
Are there any questions so far?"
There was a puzzling silence in an area packed with an amount of people that would normally be present at music festivals or presidential inaugurations. For an event of this magnitude, the stage was sparsely decorated and included only the necessities. Like last time, the visit was spontaneos and unannounced. Or maybe, like last time, we just didn't understand the announcement message, as it might have again came in the form of a formerly undiscovered particle, a seemingly arbitrary number of years prior to this event. They must think they are really funny.
One of the humans chosen as representative of the planet raised their hand.
"Please, speak. As always. Our 'time' is very limited."
"If I didn't misunderstand this: You said, our brains are basically creating what we call 'simulations' for ourselves, in our mind, to make sense of the actual universe we are in and base our actions on. Is this correct?"
"Based on the very crude definition your species has for the word 'correct' I would say 'yes, that is correct.'"
"And these simulations are getting closer and closer to the real deal, right? But what if, say, we didn't want the real deal. What if we liked our own personal pocket universes and instead wanted to bend that one to our own wills instead of the real one? You said we are bad at alignment and I would agree to the point where I say we probably go extinct to our own stupidity before we all agree on even one single thing. Can't we just use your knowledge to just, manifest things into our universe just by thinking about it, like in the movie Matrix, which might have crossed your desk while researching us. Great Movie."
"It did indeed. It is esteemed by my lifeform as what you would call 'slapstick comedy'. Since we moved past what constituted our form of entertainment, the media from your universe has become very popular among my peers. It is by sending samples back to our universe how we finance the probes we are sending here."
"You still have money?"
"I was making - what you call - a joke. Never heard of it in the context of a movie, but that title is immensely funny to me given the circumstances. Anyway, you wanted to know how to bend your 'simulated universe' around you. Alright. You might be slightly dissappointed by the beginning of my explanation, but listen till the end. And make of that what you will.
Let's start by what you mean by 'manifest' exactly. As the inaccuracy of your communication patterns shall not be a hindrance to this mentorship."
"Well... I imagine it. And then it sort of poofs into existence?"
"Understood. Actually, I will start explaning how you perform this action in the actual universe you are in, before I make the transfer to how you do it in the imagined one in your brain."
"Uh.. ok?"
"What would you like to be manifested?"
"I don't know. How about we go nice and easy with a cone of ice cream and start from there?"
"So be it. So, we start imagining the cone of ice cream. What does it consist off? Milk, sugar, eggs, and some smaller additions to suit your individuals taste buds. Let's begin with milk. You are getting it from cows (a practice my society finds quite alienating. We, too, have to get used to the wildly varying customs of lifeforms of the universes). Cows can be domesticated and bred, but first, we would have to overcome the physical distance between us, and a few locations on this planet. For that, I would advice designing and constructing a vehicle that is capa..."
"Oh come on, that's how we manifest things? We go and make them ourselves?? Oh wow, thanks a lot mister transcendant being. So the rest of the stuff you told us was also bullshit?"
"Please refrain from jumping to conclusions without the full picture in mind, even if it is in your existences nature to do so. Alright, so let me offer you a shortcut."
"Please do."
"I know of a location just a few human paces down this road, where you can exchange currency for a cone of ice cream."
"Seriously?"
"Yes."
"What the hell is the point of this?"
"The point is, once again: you - misunderstanding your existence. Especially in conjunction with your incredibly limited ability to verbalize concepts using your own vocabulary. You are barely at the point of being able to convey emotions in every day speech, and are now expecting to understand high level 4 dimensional concepts after just a few of your incredibly inaccurate words. Tell me now, please: What do you perceive as the difference of these two scenarios I just mentioned? In a temporal manner and in the energy required?"
"Well, it would be much easier and faster to just go down the road and buy a cone of ice cream, but that isn't tremendously astounding information to us, you have to understand."
"'Much'? Let's give this word, 'much', a bit of a frame of reference. The differences between these scenarios are: About 15000 years of agriculture and animal husbandry; countless inventions that led to your current state of technology which allows for refrigeration in a way advanced enough to get the ice cream to just the right texture that your modern palate is accustomed to; An education system that allows for such inventions to occur in time for you to be standing here, demanding ice cream, and actually getting it. Not mentioning the infrastructure that makes you bridge the physical distances of every single time any of these steps needed anything. And meanwhile destroying the naturally occuring resources of your planet bit by bit.
Or, scenario 2: You take the money that you got from staring at a computer screen for about 7 minutes, choose one of the ice cream parlors that your civilization made sure to be on average a 30 minutes driving distance from every single living human. (You aren't very good at even distributions though, we found.). And go and get that ice cream. Even including the infrastructural costs existing now, we have narrowed this process down from not even being close to a reality for thousands of generations to being at most 30 minutes away and dirt cheap, assuming an amount of efficient preparation, that is part of the technology that lead you here.
If you ask me, between scenario 1 and 2, you became so many orders of magnitude closer to 'poofing it into existence' that a human mind has troubles comprehending it. And therefore, appreciating it. From '0% of the human population has access to this within their lifetime and no one will for the next couple millenia' to 'Over half the human population has access to this within 30 minutes", taking into account the total timespan, the amount of events that had to occur and the amount of incremental learnings that had to accumulate, for this to happen even once for anybody, I believe the time and energy you have to exert to access your ice cream cone right now is a rounding error in the grand scheme of things. And you aren't even close to finishing your development as humans - if you manage to not kill yourself somehow.
You are constantly manifesting things into reality, the only issue is that you severely and heavily underestimate what it means 'to imagine a thing'.
Please allow my vanity, but this is an important lesson for the following part that you are, I'm afraid, more interested in. How to do that in your head. And potentially much faster. Well assuming thaXXXxxxx----.----."
"Oh wow, not again. Mighty convenient this always happens right when it gets interesting."
"First, you have to understand that.,.......... The limitations of spacetime that you perceive.... are not present in nature..... nature is infinitely 'dimensional', and in fact XXxxx.....----..--.-.- has no concept for infinity....-.-.--. it is a human made.....-.-.-.- model to describe a perfectly natural phenomenon you lack the words for at this time..._xxxx.xxx-x---.-.--.-zzzz."
"Come on, speak faster! The battery is dying again!"
" ...physical distance...S;.,.XXXxx...currently a big bottleneck for your progres...asd.döö,,,, is also a limitation of your cortex, not nature,.....-as.d.sa......the concept of an 'extent' only exists from certain frames of references..-.-..-.a.ss.a.as.... in others everything is....a.s-d.-.---.-..-xxxx on top of each other, overlapping each other in what you call 'time' AND 'space'"
"...XXXxsasad Listen."
"I am running out of time again humans. The Hopf Fibration. It is a great first step. But move away from your digital thinking. Treat your numbers. .aD;,aC:.x.cx.ac,.as,dca.s like your waves...CKLUJCJUCCLICK"
The broadcast stopped.
"I never know if these things make me smarter, or dumber. Sadly the alien is gone now so it can't tell me that there actually is no smart or dumb."

Yes, Bayesian statistics can be used as a tool to partially inform stock market predictions, but it has limitations. Here's how it works:
The Bayesian Approach:

• Prior Probabilities: You start with a "prior belief" about the market movement based on historical data, economic conditions, or expert opinions. You express this belief as a probability distribution.
• New Information: As new data becomes available (e.g., company earnings reports, economic indicators), you use Bayes' theorem to update your prior belief. This gives you a "posterior probability" which reflects your revised prediction considering the new information.

Benefits:

• Incorporates New Data: Unlike some traditional models, Bayesian statistics are dynamic and allow you to continuously update your predictions with new information.
• Flexibility: You can incorporate various factors like industry trends or company-specific news into your prior belief.

Limitations:

• Market Complexity: The stock market is influenced by numerous unpredictable factors, making accurate predictions very difficult.
• Data Quality: The quality and completeness of your historical data and chosen variables directly affect the accuracy of your model.
• Not a Crystal Ball: Even with Bayesian statistics, the market can still experience unexpected events and deviate from predictions.

Overall, while Bayesian statistics can be a helpful tool, they shouldn't be the sole factor in making investment decisions. Here are some additional points to consider:

• Complexity: Implementing Bayesian analysis for stock prediction requires a strong understanding of statistics and financial markets.
• Alternative Approaches: Technical analysis or fundamental analysis are other methods commonly used for stock predictions.

In conclusion, Bayesian statistics can be a valuable addition to your investment toolkit, but should be used cautiously and in conjunction with other analysis methods.

Okay so I’m new at world building and I made this world and I was wondering if I could get some people’s thoughts on it anything I should/could do to make it better or if there’s anything I should ad anyway this is my world
Time Period: 20th Century Key features of this time period include: * Economic Changes: The century experienced profound shifts in economic structures. The Great Depression, World Wars, and the Cold War influenced economic policies and global relations a lot. * Global Conflicts and Decolonization: The 20th century being marked by two World Wars, the Cold War, and numerous regional conflicts. Decolonization movements led to the independence of many nations in Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean, reshaping global political dynamics. * Cultural and Intellectual Movements: The century would wines diverse cultural and intellectual movements, from Modernism and Postmodernism in art and literature to existentialism and structuralism in philosophy. Popular culture flourished with the rise of cinema, television * Political Revolutions: Various political revolutions and movements occurred, including the Russian Revolution, the rise of fascism and Nazism, and numerous anti-colonial and independence movements. These events reshaped nations and ideologies, influencing global politics. Technology/World State: Diesel-punk/Arcanepunk * Diesel-Punk Aesthetic: The world is characterized by a diesel-punk aesthetic, reminiscent of the early to mid-20th century. Futuristic like Industrial machinery, steam-powered engines, and diesel-fueled vehicles dominate the landscape, giving the world a gritty, industrialized feel. * Arcanepunk Elements: In addition to diesel-punk technology, the world is infused with arcanepunk elements, where runes and arcane forces coexist with technological advancements. Runes, enchanted artifacts, and mystical creatures and races populate the world alongside steam and or diesel-powered machines and industrial innovations. Runes are integrated into everyday life, influencing everything from household appliances to warfare. * Societal Structure: The society within this world is often stratified, with distinct social classes based on wealth, power, and access to technology and magic. The wealthy elite may control advanced technology and wield powerful magical artifacts, while the common folk struggle to survive in the industrialized cities or rural villages. Architecture: focusing on diesel-punk style from the 1910s-1950s * Industrial Architecture: Industrial buildings, such as factories, warehouses, and power plants, dominate the urban landscape. These structures are characterized by their utilitarian design, with large open spaces, exposed steel beams, and functional layouts. The emphasis is on efficiency and productivity, reflecting the industrialization of society. * Gothic Revival: Gothic Revival architecture continues to influence buildings, particularly churches, cathedrals, and government buildings. Pointed arches, ribbed vaults, and intricate stone carvings evoke a sense of medieval grandeur and religious symbolism. * Brutalism: Emerging in the mid-20th century, Brutalism is characterized by its raw, concrete construction and stark, minimalist design. Buildings in this style often feature exposed concrete surfaces, geometric forms, and rugged textures. Brutalist architecture reflects a sense of social idealism and functionalism, with an emphasis on honesty in materials and structural expression. * Urban Planning: The urban landscape undergoes significant transformations during this period, with large-scale urban planning projects shaping the layout of cities. Modernist principles of efficiency and rationality inform the design of neighborhoods, transportation systems, and public spaces. The concept of the "city of the future" inspires architects and planners to create visionary urban environments that accommodate the needs of a rapidly growing population. * Magic System Description * Foundation: Runes harnesses the inherent mana that’s in all matter through intricate symbols called runes. * Activation: Runes are activated by infusing one's own mana into the symbol, causing it to absorb surrounding mana to perform the desired function. * Deactivation: follows a similar process, with individuals withdrawing some mana from the symbol to cease its effects. * Versatility: Runes can be inscribed onto any surface including parchment, stone, metal, or even living beings. Once activated, they can produce a wide range of effects, limited only by the complexity of the rune and the skill of the Runecaster. * Applications: Runes can be used for offense, defense, enchantments, day-to-day tasks and more. Each rune represents a specific concept or action, and combinations of runes can create complex magical effects. * Training: Runecasters undergo rigorous training to understand the intricacies of rune construction, activation, and manipulation. Mastery of rune magic requires years of diligent study and practice. * Science vs. Art: Runes are considered a science rather than an art, adhering to precise rules and principles governing their construction and usage. While some individuals may have a natural affinity for rune crafting, anyone can learn to make runes with sufficient dedication and training. * Limitations: Improper use of runes can lead to unintended consequences or backfiring effects. The complexity of rune construction means that creating advanced runes requires considerable expertise. * Changed People/Parts: A rare genetic disorder afflicts approximately 25% of the population, resulting in random body parts being transformed into a durable metal that functions just like the original part but with anomalous properties. These affected parts grant individuals elemental powers/magic associated with their respective element. * Changed parts: Any body part/parts ranging from a single muscle fiber to entire organs can be affected. The affected area becomes a metal that resembles the original body part but possesses enhanced durability and elemental affinity. * Elemental Powers: The type of elemental powemagic granted is completely random but what ever the affected body part is they’ll gain total control over that element the only limits being their imagination and power level. * Types of Elements: Individuals with changed parts can manifest a variety of elemental powers. The different elements and the chance of having it is as follows: 15% lightning, 22% fire, 25% air, 10% water, 10% earth, 5% spirit/soul, 5% combustion, 1% space, 1% time, 3% light, and 3% darkness. * Power Utilization: You can control the element you get through your changed part however, you want(kind of like bending, but without the need for the martial arts) the only limitation being your power level and your imagination your power level dictating how much of your element you can create how strong your control over your element is and how much of that element you can control and imagination dictating how you control your element * Power Levels: The strength of an individual's elemental powers/magic is indicated by the brightness of the glow emitted by the transformed body part when it’s used. A brigh glow signifies a high power and proficiency in utilizing there elemental abilities. Your power level goes up the more you use your changed part like a muscle the more you use it that gets. * Awareness: In most cases, individuals and even medical professionals are unaware of the presence of changed parts until the affected individual begins using their elemental powers/magic. The only changed parts, that are visible are ones like changed eyes or skin which are obviously immediately noticeable. * Monsters: a small amount of monsters/folklore creatures/mythical creatures exist but they’re specific to the region where they’re mythology/folklore comes from so let’s say Japan they would have creatures/monsters from there mythologies/religions/folklore * Gods * Artifacts of Power: Each god in every religion or mythology is sealed inside the item they’re associated with the most. These items can be anything these items possess a small part of the god sealed inside them * Connection to Mortals: Mortals who wield one of these items gain a fraction of the god's power, although they are not on par with the deity itself. * Divine Projection: Gods have the ability to astrally project from their artifacts, manifesting in the mortal realm. However, to avoid driving mortals insane with their true forms, gods typically possess a random mortal to interact with the mortal world.

Context:

I'm creating a Tokio tracing subscriber that captures logs from tracing instrumented libraries and exports them to a backend service using the hyper crate. However, hyper is also instrumented with Tokio tracing, which causes an infinite logging loop because the logs generated by hyper are captured and exported by my subscriber.
Please note that the application integrating with my Subscriber might also use the hyper crate. I only want to suppress tracing events emitted from hyper due to its usage within my Tokio subscriber's implementation, not from the application's use of hyper. Adding a filter for hyper as suggested in the linked question would suppress all events from hyper, regardless of where it is used. I've provided more details in the example code and problem statement below.
Here’s a simplified version of my code, self-contained and runnable (including the solution I tried to suppress the logs from hyper crate):

/* hyper = { version = "0.14.7", features = [ "full" ] } tokio = { version = "1.33.0", features = ["full"] } tracing = "0.1.25" tracing-core = "0.1" pin-project = "1.1.3" tracing-subscriber = "0.3.17" */ use pin_project::pin_project; use std::future::Future; use std::pin::Pin; use std::task::{Context, Poll}; use tracing::info; use tracing::Event; use tracing::Metadata; use tracing::Subscriber; use tracing_core::span::Id; use tracing_core::span::Record; // Define a task-local variable for suppression tokio::task_local! { static SUPPRESSED: bool; } struct SimpleSubscriber; impl Subscriber for SimpleSubscriber { fn enabled(&self, _metadata: &Metadata<'_>) -> bool { !is_logging_suppressed() } fn new_span(&self, _: &tracing::span::Attributes<'_>) -> Id { Id::from_u64(10) } fn event(&self, event: &Event<'_>) { if is_logging_suppressed() { return; } // Extract the required metadata before moving into the async context let target = event.metadata().target().to_string(); let name = event.metadata().name().to_string(); let level = event.metadata().level().clone(); let suppressed_future = SUPPRESSED.scope(true, async move { // the actual logging event, the hyper tracing event generated here should be suppressed hyper_wrapper::make_hyper_call("mock_upload_event", &target, &name, &level).await; }); let suppress_logging_future = SuppressLogging { inner: suppressed_future, }; // Use tokio::spawn instead of spawn_local tokio::task::spawn(suppress_logging_future); } fn record(&self, _: &Id, _: &Record<'_>) {} fn record_follows_from(&self, _: &Id, _: &Id) {} fn enter(&self, _: &Id) {} fn exit(&self, _: &Id) {} } #[pin_project] struct SuppressLogging { #[pin] inner: F, } impl Future for SuppressLogging { type Output = F::Output; fn poll(self: Pin<&mut Self>, cx: &mut Context<'_>) -> Poll { let this = self.project(); this.inner.poll(cx) } } fn is_logging_suppressed() -> bool { SUPPRESSED.try_with(val *val).unwrap_or(false) } #[tokio::main] async fn main() { let subscriber = SimpleSubscriber; tracing::subscriber::set_global_default(subscriber) .expect("Setting default subscriber failed."); // Make a small Hyper call in the main method lib::some_func().await; } // Define the module within the same file mod lib { use tracing::info; use tracing_core::Level; pub async fn some_func() { // this should be logged info!(name: "this-is-also-logged", "test"); // the tracing event generated by hyper crate should not be suppressed. super::hyper_wrapper::make_hyper_call("main method", "main", "startup", &Level::INFO).await; } } mod hyper_wrapper { use hyper::Client; use hyper::Uri; use tracing_core::Level; pub async fn make_hyper_call(context: &str, target: &str, name: &str, level: &Level) { let client = Client::new(); let uri = "http://www.google.com".parse::().unwrap(); let response = client.get(uri).await; match response { Ok(_response) => { //let _body = hyper::body::to_bytes(response).await.unwrap(); println!( "{} - [{}] - {} - {} ", context, level, target, name, ); } Err(e) => { println!("{} - [{}] - {} - {} - Error: {:?}", context, level, target, name, e); } } } } 

Problem Statement:

• I am creating a Tokio tracing subscriber, which gets the logs from the tokio-tracing instrumented libraries, and exports them to some backend service using (say) hyper.
• Now the hyper the crate is also instrumented with Tokio tracing, which results in the logs from this crate being received by the event() method of my subscriber and getting exported. This results in an infinite logging loop.
• While I can create a filter to remove all logs emitted from the hyper crate, this crate might also be used by applications that depend on my crate or by other libraries these applications use. And the application developers might not want logs from their hyper usage to be filtered out.
• So, I want to filter only the logs generated by the hyper crate from within my subscriber implementation. I tried using tokio::task_local to set the suppression flag within my subscriber, and then use that to decide whether to export the logs or not. However, task_local won't be propagated across multiple async calls made within the hyper crate.

Question:

What is the best way to achieve this? How can I filter out the logs generated by the hyper crate within my subscriber implementation without affecting the logs generated by the hyper crate in other parts of the application?
Please note that hyper is just one of those crates. My Subscriber would be using other crates like reqwest and tonic and it would be the same issue with them.
About the example:

1. SimpleSubscriber is my subscriber to process the logs generated through the tokio-tracing library. This would be published as a crate.
2. fn main would be part of the application which configures my crate, and also uses the library/module named lib.
3. Library lib invoke info! macro to do logging, and also uses hyper crate to send some HTTP request for its purpose. The logs generated through lib module (using info! and internally within hyper should be exported through my subscriber.
4. Now my subscriber also uses hyper crate through event() -> make_hyper_call, and I don't want the logs generated by hyper usage within my subscriber to be lopped back, and exported. As this will cause an infinite loop.
5. I tried using tokio::task_local flag named SUPPRESSED, and propagating it to async tasks through the future wrapper SuppressLogging, however, the flag is not getting propagated to all the chain of async calls within the hyper crate. So no suppression is happening.

First off I am a newbie to resolve, so I apologize if this has been covered before.
I tried to do this with iMovie but that didn't seem workable and needed something with a bit more capability.
I am editing a project where I have one video that is horizontal and one that is vertical.
I want to make the Horizontal video to be the main part, with the vertical video on the right hand side.
They are both different resolutions (obviously)
How can I make this work? Nothing on YouTube matches what I am after. They obscure part of each video instead of featuring them side by side in full res.
MacOS 14.5. https://imgur.com/vOufcqZ
Davinci 1.8.6.6 build 7 free
Vertical video specs:
Format : MPEG-4 Format profile : Base Media Codec ID : isom (isom/iso2/avc1/mp41) File size : 363 MiB Duration : 3 h 38 min Overall bit rate : 232 kb/s Frame rate : 60.000 FPS Writing application : Lavf61.1.100
Video ID : 1 Format : AVC Format/Info : Advanced Video Codec Format profile : High@L3.2 Format settings : CABAC / 4 Ref Frames Format settings, CABAC : Yes Format settings, Reference frames : 4 frames Codec ID : avc1 Codec ID/Info : Advanced Video Coding Duration : 3 h 38 min Bit rate : 226 kb/s Width : 700 pixels Height : 1 200 pixels Display aspect ratio : 0.583 Frame rate mode : Constant Frame rate : 60.000 FPS Color space : YUV Chroma subsampling : 4:2:0 Bit depth : 8 bits Scan type : Progressive Bits/(Pixel*Frame) : 0.004 Stream size : 354 MiB (98%) Writing library : x264 core 164 r3190 7ed753b Encoding settings : cabac=1 / ref=1 / deblock=1:0:0 / analyse=0x3:0x113 / me=hex / subme=2 / psy=1 / psy_rd=1.00:0.00 / mixed_ref=0 / me_range=16 / chroma_me=1 / trellis=0 / 8x8dct=1 / cqm=0 / deadzone=21,11 / fast_pskip=1 / chroma_qp_offset=0 / threads=30 / lookahead_threads=9 / sliced_threads=0 / nr=0 / decimate=1 / interlaced=0 / bluray_compat=0 / constrained_intra=0 / bframes=3 / b_pyramid=2 / b_adapt=1 / b_bias=0 / direct=1 / weightb=1 / open_gop=0 / weightp=1 / keyint=250 / keyint_min=25 / scenecut=40 / intra_refresh=0 / rc_lookahead=10 / rc=crf / mbtree=1 / crf=18.0 / qcomp=0.60 / qpmin=0 / qpmax=69 / qpstep=4 / ip_ratio=1.40 / aq=1:1.00 Codec configuration box : avcC
Horizontal video specs:
Format : MPEG-4 Format profile : Base Media Codec ID : isom (isom/iso2/avc1/mp41) File size : 9.38 GiB Duration : 3 h 38 min Overall bit rate mode : Variable Overall bit rate : 6 140 kb/s Frame rate : 30.000 FPS Writing application : Lavf59.30.100
Video ID : 1 Format : AVC Format/Info : Advanced Video Codec Format profile : High@L4 Format settings : CABAC / 2 Ref Frames Format settings, CABAC : Yes Format settings, Reference frames : 2 frames Codec ID : avc1 Codec ID/Info : Advanced Video Coding Duration : 3 h 38 min Source duration : 3 h 38 min Bit rate mode : Constant Bit rate : 6 002 kb/s Width : 1 664 pixels Height : 936 pixels Display aspect ratio : 16:9 Frame rate mode : Variable Frame rate : 30.000 FPS Minimum frame rate : 29.412 FPS Maximum frame rate : 30.303 FPS Color space : YUV Chroma subsampling : 4:2:0 Bit depth : 8 bits Scan type : Progressive Bits/(Pixel*Frame) : 0.128 Stream size : 9.16 GiB (98%) Source stream size : 9.16 GiB (98%) Color range : Limited Color primaries : BT.709 Transfer characteristics : BT.709 Matrix coefficients : BT.709 mdhd_Duration : 13116901 Codec configuration box : avcC
Audio ID : 2 Format : AAC LC Format/Info : Advanced Audio Codec Low Complexity Codec ID : mp4a-40-2 Duration : 3 h 38 min Bit rate mode : Variable Bit rate : 128 kb/s Maximum bit rate : 130 kb/s Channel(s) : 2 channels Channel layout : L R Sampling rate : 48.0 kHz Frame rate : 46.875 FPS (1024 SPF) Compression mode : Lossy Stream size : 200 MiB (2%) Default : Yes Alternate group : 1
I cannot offer screenshots as I would like to keep this private. Sorry!

For many years, I took the train to work. A fellow commuter (I’ll call her Jane) endlessly complained about the poor punctuation of the service. Jane was intent on claiming as much compensation as she could from the train operator. To that end, every day she recorded on a spreadsheet how late her trains were. She was due to go on holiday and asked if I would keep a note of delays during the week. Reluctantly, I agreed. When Jane returned from holiday, she asked me for an update. However, I had totally forgotten to keep a record. Rather than admit my oversight, I told her the trains had run perfectly on time through the week. It had never happened before. Jane, as you can image, was delighted. She did not ask me again. I often think, if I’m too happy then Jane could sort me out.

Variables of happiness

Happiness is often described as a state characterised by positive emotions, satisfaction and a sense of purpose. I know that happiness cannot be strictly defined as a mathematical formula. However, as an aging Mathematician, perhaps you will humour me. As in algebra, where variables represent unknown quantities, happiness is influenced by factors that interact in complex ways. Making positive changes in any aspect can have ripple effects. The variables of happiness include: Purpose, Relationships, Health, Gratitude, Growth and Resilience.

Purpose

The purpose of life is to enjoy the passage of time. - Jimmy Carr

Having a sense of purpose gives us direction and motivation. Whether it's through work, hobbies or other activities, aligning actions with our values and passions brings a profound sense of fulfilment.
I love seeing people use things I build. A combination of commercial and IT skills enabled me to develop a tool that significantly improves the way my corporate colleagues work.

Relationships

I am self-motivated and very happy working alone. That said, without my family and friends much of my drive and sense of purpose would diminish. Supporting my children and seeing them develop into amazingly talented adults is a huge pleasure. Strong relationships are crucial to my happiness.

Health

A healthy person wants a thousand things, a sick person only wants one. - Confucius

At age 35, when commuting home by train, I was convinced I was having a heart attack. At Reading station I sought help and an ambulance was called. At the scene, paramedics used an ECG to check my heart. I was then taken to the local hospital for further tests. After an overnight stay, I was told my heart was healthy and I could go home. Subsequently, I went to my GP who told me the likely cause of the pain was related to some DIY I had undertaken. Since that event, I have not taken my health for granted. Daily walks help me stay happy and healthy.

Gratitude, growth and resilience

Listening to the BBC Podcast A History of Britain in Numbers made me realise how lucky I am to have been born in a safe country in the 1960s. Central heating, showers, computers, mobile phones, social media, Wifi, the internet and AI. All things that enrich my life daily that my grandparents could hardly imagine.
I struggled at school. Maths and woodwork were the only things I was good at. In my 30s, I discovered books and embraced the idea of life long learning. I am working my way up Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. I am particularly enjoy learning new things and sharing my understanding with other, e.g. via this blog.
While incredibly fortunate, I have faced many setbacks, including redundancy and the death of my mum and a close friend. Pragmatic optimism and a supportive network helped me. I feel more resilient and grounded, having come through these challenges.

Other resources

Happiness is a Choice talk by Naval Ravikant
Life Games to Play, Win and Exit post by Phil Martin
Pick Ourselves post by Phil Martin
The following may not be applicable to everyone. However, for me, I buy into Naval Ravikant’s view that, Happiness is a choice we make and a skill we develop.
Have fun.
Phil…

this will be my 2nd year at mcgill (U1) and last year i took math 133, which was my first experience to linear algebra of any sort! i really enjoyed maths in h.s so i took the course – despite my major not being math – hoping that it would broaden my horizons on math apart from just calculus. along with the typical struggles of the first few months in a new city and environment, i had a really hard time grasping any of the content in the course. my prof was romain branchereau and i found his teaching style very difficult for someone with zero background in linear algebra (i fully did not know of its existence before entering the course!) and i struggled with taking in such new and complex information at our early lectures. i attended every tutorial and my TA was pretty unhelpful and i felt really dumb at times when i couldn't even understand the tiniest bits of the topics he would try to explain.
i got A's in both calc 1 and 2 yet math 133 was my lowest mark of the year, i barely passed the final (i remember flipping through it in the fieldhouse and just being so lost) and the midterm was a struggle too (even the webwork assignments tripped me up...) and i felt very disappointed in myself as it seemed like to a lot of people the course was a cakewalk. i also know people that took it second semester where it was apparently much easier material?? the reason i enjoy math a lot of the time is because after minutes or hours of painstaking confusion, you can problem solve to that a-ha moment where it all just becomes clear and it's very satisfying! i just don't think i ever got to that point with linear algebra and it kind of felt like a little stain in my otherwise successful year...
after plenty of thought, i finally declared my major and decided to try out doing a minor in statistics because of how much i loved the stats courses i took in h.s and how i really enjoyed the other aspects of math at mcgill so far with calc 1 and 2! (it also compliments my major pretty well for research in the future) but i was quite disappointed to realize that in taking this, i would have to meet again with my foe, linear algebra in math 223... not only would i have to take it but i have to take it next semester as it is the only time that it really fits in my packed schedule (which i don't hate terribly considering the content is still a little fresh in my mind, it just seems so soon...)
so i've registered to take it next semester and the prof has not yet been declared so i'm really just taking a leap and hoping it works out. i'm not sure if there's a prof that usually teaches the course, but if i get the same prof i had with math 133, i fear the course would go similarly for me, if not only worse as the content gets harder and i lag behind. i really want to improve in the course this semester and honestly just figure it out. i still believe i enjoy mathematics despite how much lin alg has tainted it for me — there's just something that's blocking me from understanding this more conceptual type of math that i have yet to be able to identify!
so all this essay to say, any tips on surviving the course for someone who didn't really learn much to begin with in math 133? i'm planning to watch some youtube lessons of math 133 this summer to prepare in advance considering i assume we are supposed to be entering 223 with some sort of semblance on the subject meanwhile i feel like having taken the course and done all the work, i still know nothing about what linear algebra is. i was lucky to have a tutor last semester that i am hoping to perhaps reach out to again, as i found there were ways that my tutor described the material that my brain understood way better than my professor did.
tl;dr: i am taking math 223 after really struggling with math 133 and am scared that history will repeat itself, any tips on how to survive or view linear algebra as a subject to someone not familiar with this style of math?
thanks for any advice!!

Hi all,
Prospective next year applicant here with a strong math background + good scores, but unknown school, weak econ coursework, and little econ research exp. I’m hoping for some opinions on my chances at a T30 programs, and thoughts on whether I should set my target lowehigher:
Profile:
UG/GR Institution: Lesser-known state school, ~T175
UG: Math + CS double major GR: Pure Math, took additional math courses later while working
UG GPA: 3.87 (All Bs in frosh bio/chem) GR: GPA: 4.00
GRE: 170Q/170V/6.0AW, Math GRE: 940 (96%) (idk if relevant or if people even submit this for econ PhDs)
UG Math Courses (All As): Calc III, ODE, LA, Probability Theory, Math Stats, PDE, Optimization, Real Analysis I, Real Analysis II, Complex Analysis, Abstract Algebra, Topology
GR Math Courses (All As): Differential Geometry, Measure Theory/Lebesgue Integration, Functional Analysis, Measure-Theoretic Probability, Algebraic Topology, Stochastic Processes I & II, Stochastic Differential Equations, Algebraic Geometry, Differential Topology, Numerical Linear Algebra, Graph Theory, Math Finance, Adv. Math Stats, Markov Chain Theory
Econ Coursework (All As): Intermediate Micro, Intermediate Macro, Econometrics
Other (All As): Statistical Analysis I & II, Computational Statistics, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Machine Learning Theory & Algorithms, Distributed Machine Learning, Standard CS Major Courses (algs, os, swe, oop, etc.)
Research: 2.5 years in computer vision/deep learning lab, RA for economist for 6 months (empirical micro), 1 year math finance research in math dept
Work Exp: 4 years post-grad work experience as data scientist at a bank, one semester TA for deep learning class
LORs:
a. Economist I RA’d for (chair of dept but not known in field) b. Math prof for several grad courses c. Either another math prof or manager at work (has a PhD in Econ)
Research Interests: IO and Micro Theory
Other: First gen college student
Any thoughts? Should I spend more time RAing or do a predoc to build up research experience or take extra econ coursework?
Thanks in advance!

I’m working on a complex procedure + accompanying work instructions. Trying to decide how best to present a software maintenance section that req’s complex and often variable or unique decision making. I know every on-the-spot decision increases the likelihood of error.
My users? Predominantly people with little system training. Think database maintenance with a user-friendly front end where continuity relies on this more than training.
Some of the decisions are easy, like does this need to be deleted or can the old version be completed as is. Others decisions range anywhere from does this need reassignment for regulatory compliance to is this on the timekeeper review list that might flood someone’s inbox in six months if not closed correctly.
How have you successfully provided enough information in situations like these to cover the likely breath of situations that will arise while still making it clear that some decisions may well require SME input to get right?
I’ve looked at a variety of paths, but they are all still too complex. Would love your input. Thanks!

Ubuntu 23.10, with sway or without? The Regolith 2.2 iso? Or something else? I'm planning to use it for work, software development on a Thinkpad T14s, so no Nvidia gpu. But I use Jetbrains IDEs and have a lot of video meetings, which I heard does not work well with wayland. My ultrawide monitor needs scaling up, does fractional scaling work without sway? There's so many variables, it's just hard to choose the right distro and tiling window manager without too many compromises

Name: Hall Monitor.

Genre: Horror

This game revolves around escaping from school while avoiding the hall monitor.
Your objective is to navigate from your classroom to the exit without getting caught.
The hall monitor is a character named Olivia. She seems sweet at first, but turns vicious and frightening when provoked.
Olivia's AI patrols the hallway. If you enter her detection radius, she will chase you. Once you're out of this radius, she loses sight of you. However, she will continue to search for a few seconds before resuming her patrol.
When Olivia spots you, the hallway lights switch off and she starts to glow red. At this point, you'll need to use the light from your phone to see.
The core game loop of this concept involves:

1. Starting in the classroom and planning an escape route.
2. Navigating through the hallways while avoiding Olivia, the hall monitor.
3. Using objects and the environment to distract Olivia or block her path.
4. If spotted, using the light from the phone to navigate and find hiding spots.
5. Reaching the exit and advancing to the next level.
6. As the game progresses, the school layout becomes more complex, and Olivia's patrol patterns and speed increase.

To produce a basic prototype of this game using simplified graphics to ensure its feasibility and fun factor, follow these steps:

1. Create a Basic Layout and Characters: Start by designing a simple school layout and basic characters using Godot's 2D scene editor. At this stage, use placeholder sprites for your characters and levels.
2. Develop Character Movement: Utilize Godot's scripting language, GDScript, to implement character movement. At this stage, basic up, down, left, and right movements should suffice.
3. Establish the Hall Monitor's AI: Craft a basic AI for the hall monitor, Olivia, that patrols the hallways. This can be done using a simple state machine with states for patrolling and chasing.
4. Set Up Detection Radius: Implement a straightforward detection radius for Olivia by creating an Area2D node as a child of the Olivia sprite. Trigger the chase state when the player enters this area.
5. Test Lighting Effects: When Olivia spots the player, simulate the hallway lights switching off and Olivia glowing red. For this prototype, you can use basic color changes to represent these effects.
6. Integrate Interaction with Environment: Incorporate some simple interactive objects in the environment that the player can use to distract Olivia or block her path. These can be basic Area2D nodes, and interactions can be represented by simple animations or color changes.
7. Simulate Game Progression: As the player progresses, simulate the increase in complexity of the school layout and Olivia's patrol patterns and speed. You can create different scenes for each level and load them as the player progresses

hello, so i am trying to solve this algebra question
a, b and c are numbers each (meaning they belong to the set of {0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9})
a+3/b = c + 2
6/c-2 = a + 4
according to this, what is a+b+c?
so i'm not asking anyone to answer it, but i am asking what type of math is this. i tried looking for it myself, i think it's a mix of "multi-step linear equations with fractions" and "system of equations" and "unknown variables" but i couldn't really find the exact thing.
some context: in my testbook it is labeled as "foundational concepts", basically anything from pre-algebra and algebra 1. i am from a non-english speaking country so i'm having a hard time finding the english name for this type question, and the teachers here don't divide question types into sections, rather they just put everything into one section and it makes it difficult for me to practice. so i personally use english sources since things are more detailed and more suited to my studying style.
i can solve things like,
3x=2y
5y=4z
according to this, what is the largest value that x+y+z can have?
and
4x/3 = 7/6 - 5x/2
for example.
but i feel stumped with the first question i wrote out here. it feels like a mix of concepts and i want to learn how to solve it and to have practice.

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Looking for a bit of confirmation here. My building has informed me that my unit HVAC will return warm air if there is a call for cooling and outside air temperature is below a certain temp. It’s something to do with the building chiller only operating above a certain ambient temp.
I have set the Ecobee up as a single speed variable fan to match our fan coil unit setup but due to this building operation limitation and the current season, our system thinks it is trying to cool when it’s actually heating up.
Is there a way to set the ecobee to only call for cooling when outside temperature is above a certain level? I see a setting under threshold settings that sounds kinda like this (minimum outdoor temperature compressor running) but in all my googling and searching this subreddit the discussion is all around heat pumps and heating.
I know I could probably do this with an external home automation system but I don't have anything like that setup and I'm hoping to avoid adding that complexity.

I'm not sure if bout is the best term, but I feel calling it a battle bout is fairly accurate to my goal.
I've posted about this before, but I don't consider my previous version to have been high in readability. I've been trying to make a combat that approximates turn-based combat, but speeds it up by having one decision affect multiple rounds of combat. It developed into the creation of a more tournament style of fighting, as this is a style that revolves around minions fighting in place of the player character, who commands the minions, rather than a hero that can vanquish any foe on his own.

1. Select Units:
   1. Choose battle groups.
2. Situational State (affects steps 5&6):
   1. Prepared: Groups are each spotted outside 2 rounds of move.
   2. Surprised: Groups are each hidden within 2 rounds of move.
3. Determine Initiative (affects step 6):
   1. Noncombatants: Auto-lose if in a group. If in both groups, tiebreaker.
   2. Compare opposing units with lowest evasion. Check their respective moves.
      1. Higher move = +1 evasion bonus.
   3. Higher total evasion wins initiative.
   4. Tiebreaker: Roll 1d10 (odds vs. evens).
4. Determine Pairings:
   1. Select combat pairs as per "Section 10.1".
   2. Winner pairs first for skirmish, and odd numbered bouts. Loser pairs first for initiative, and even numbered bouts.
5. Skirmish Rounds:
   1. Prepared (1-3 rounds): Shooters (only) attack; Short/mid/long range shooters fire 1/2/3 times at a single target.
   2. Surprised (1 round): All units stunned, unless posessing stun-negating specials (e.g. adv. initiative).
   3. Target results determined individually. All penalties/bonuses apply (e.g. stunned).
   4. If target stats differ by at least +2/-2 points, attacker misses/hits; otherwise, glancing blow (unarmoured = minimum blow).
6. Initiative Round (1 round; tiebreaker=skip):
   1. Prepared: Initiative side attacks.
   2. Surprised: Initiative side attacks. Units are no longer stunned.
   3. Before fighting, form new combat pairings for unpaired units. Success/Failure determined as in Skirmish rounds.
7. Battle Bout:
   1. Form new pairings for unpaired units.
   2. Roll 1d10 for highest statted opposing primaries, applying modifiers.
   3. Winner: Hits every round.
   4. Loser: Hits every other round, starting based on the degree of loss.
      1. Draw (0): Rounds 2, 4, 6... armoured= no damage; unarmoured= glancing blows.
      2. Loss by 1 to 3: Rounds 1, 3, 5...
      3. Loss by 4 to 6: Rounds 2, 4, 6...
      4. Loss by 7+: Rounds 3, 5, 7...
      5. Loss by 10+: Additional saving throw vs crit at start of round 1 (negative stats also cause this).
   5. Secondary Pairings: If all secondaries are smaller, auto-hit for full damage every even round, otherwise every odd round.
   6. Bout ends when one unit is croaked (with no units incapacitated).
8. Next Bout:
   1. Form new pairings for unpaired units, and repeat step 7, until all units from one player are defeated.
9. Conclusion:
   1. Declare battle winner.
   2. Winning units gain experience points (see chapter 5).
   3. Adjust ammo stat (-1) after the battle.
   4. Check for other potential enemies. If none, units can recover 0.5 ammo.

Step 1 (select units) is just the creation of groups.
Step 2 (situational state) to set up the different main situations. Either you spotted the enemies coming, or they were hidden from view. Therefore, your group is either surprised or prepared.
Step 3 (initiative) is mainly there to determine who decides which units are paired up. I also added a bonus round of fighing at the start. I've been told that this was overly complicated before, so I hope I have simplified the process properly. Now you take the two lowest evasion statted units, and give a +1 bonus if one of them has a higher move. If it's the same, then just roll a tiebreaker, and skip initiative.
Step 4 (determine pairings) now that initiative is decided, the winner gets first choice to decide which units will be fighting each other. The exact process is not important at this time. It's basically a version of player 1 picks these two to fight (primary pairing), then player 2 picks other units to fight, and once all units have someone to fight, then you can start piling on extra units to also fight (secondary pairings)
Step 5 (skirmish rounds) was mainly made as some bonus rounds for projectile units. Range is a general term. I don't know what the exact numbers should be so I just said that long range can fire 3 times, mid range fire twice, and short range can only fire once as the groups close into each other to fight. I have an ammo stat but it tracks engagements, not individual attacks.
Step 6 (initiative round) Free attack for whomever won initiative. In order to save time, dice rolls are not done for either step 5 or 6. I'm instead doing a system of damage if stats are high, miss if they are low, and half damage if they are about the same. Oh, and damage is a set amount every round, with critical hits coming if your attack roll is 10+ points higher then the opponent, which then causes a saving throw.
Step 7 (battle bout). Each player rolls once and it determines the course of fighting until one of the minion units die. Primary pairings are units that can actually hit each other, while secondary pairings can attack with no opposition. In another time saving move, I decided that units that are not rolling just do damage every other round.
Step 8 (new bout) is just a reset. Once deaths are shown, units needs to be paired up with new units, and then another roll, and same thing. Keep repeating the process until only one side remains.
Step 9 (conclusion) after everyone is dead get exp, lower ammo, maybe collect some of the ammo that was just spent, and so on.
Here is the simplest possible example battle I can make. Pikers are the most bog standard mook unit available.

1. Select Units: Both players have 1 piker.
2. Situational State: Players 1&2 are spotted. Use prepared option for steps 5&6.
3. Determine Initiative: Evasion&move is the same, roll 1d10; odd result means player 1 wins roll, but doesn't have initiative.
4. Determine Pairings: Player1 pairs his piker with the enemy piker (only one possible choice).
5. Skirmish Rounds:: N/A (prepared; no archers; skip step 5).
6. Initiative Round (tiebreaker = skip): N/A (tiebreaker used; no initiative, skip step 6).
7. Begin Battle Bout: Player#1 wins roll with a +1 to +3 result. Player#2's piker dies at 0/4 hp, while player1's piker has 2/4 hp (1 dmg per round means 4 rounds does 4 damage, while opponent does damage during two of those rounds, doing 2 dmg).
8. Continue Battle: N/A only one group remains.
9. Conclusion: Player#1 wins. No other enemies around. No ammo to recover. Winning piker gets exp.

Of course it gets more complex but this is the absolute basis of how I've designed the fighting process. It doesn't get super complicated, as the number of moves you can have minions do is limited, but you can have various special abilites that give bonuses, and there are various traits that a unit can have.
​
Now, unit selection is a seperate process.
First thing I need to explain is that basic soldiers, like pikers, are subject to auto-attacking enemies of non-alligned sides, and that the setting is basically city state nations constantly at war with each other.
You coulc have have a group of pikers from the Queendom of Unaroyal making camp on the side of the road, and suddenly some pikers from the Kingdom of Jetstone walked on by, the two groups/stacks of pikers would immediately attack each other, except in the case where their respective monarchs had signed up for an alliance.
Pikers are considered to be auto attacking units. Therefore, this is the selection proccess for units like them.
Determine First Selector:

• Odd Bouts (includes skirmish): Initiative/tiebreaker winner selects first.
• Even Bouts (includes initiative): Initiative/tiebreaker loser selects first.

1. Primary Pairing (RegulaStunned Units Only):

• First Selector:
  • Chooses a primary pairing for all units of one class/race from each side.
• Second Selector:
  • Chooses a primary pairing for all units of one class/race from each side.
• Repeat Alternating Selections:
  • Continue alternating selections until all regulastunned units of one side have primary pairs.

1. Secondary Pairing:

• If units remain unpaired, return to Step 2.
• These become secondary pairings and include previously paired units.
• The positions of first and second selectors are reversed.
• Prioritize fewest pairings.

1. Finalization:

• Ensure all units are paired; resume battle turn order.

~Pairing Definitions:~

1. Primary Pairings:
   1. The first chosen pairings for each unit class/race.
   2. Primary pairings are the main combat interactions.
2. Secondary Pairings:
   1. Pairings in which there is no mutual ability to attack.
   2. Include units that have been previously paired in primary pairings.

It's designed as a system for small group combat, with opposing groups having 1-15 units. When both sides have 16 or more, that is generally the point where combat changes to mass combat rules, which function differently, and I'm not asking about that.
In the case of two stacks of enemy pikers. Here is the composition.
Unaroyal: Piker#1U; Piker#2U
Jetstone: Piker#1J; Piker#2J; Piker#3J; Piker#4J
They meet each other out in the field, and auto-attack compels them to start fighting, you would roll for a tiebreaker, and the side from Unaroyal wins. Pikers are a class, and the class of pikers belong to the race of humans. Therefore.

1. Primary pairings: Tiebreaking winner is the first selector. There is only one decision. Picking the Piker class vs piker class.

Unaroyal pairs Piker#1U vs Piker#1J -- Piker#2U vs Piker#2U
Unaroyal has been fully paired.

1. Secondary pairings: Tiebreaking loser is the second selector. Again, only one decision. Piker vs piker.

Jetstone pairs Piker#3J vs Piker#1U -- Piker#4J; Piker#2U
Note that fewest pairings must be prioratized for auto-attacking units so Piker#4J must attack Piker#2, not Piker#1U, because #2U already is paired twice.

How are you handling conflicts between individuals in this case? Does everyone always just have a retinue of willing combatants everywhere they go?

Yes. I mean, the choice to not do so it always avalable, but that would not be a good decision to make. It's a wargame setting, and the world is constantly at war. The setting is that players are considered to be army commanders, and will normally have access to soldiers to command. It's possible to not be part of a side, but the difficulty is much higher when doing that. How many soldiers you have is based on how large your side is, and how successful it has been in battle.
Currently. I have the first 3 chapters done, with many more that are still in the rough draft phase. It's a complex ruleset, running over 20k words
https://forums.sufficientvelocity.com/threads/second-dawn-the-unofficial-erfworld-rpg.119514/5/reade

Ok... so...
Doing some GRE practice stuff and the basic math and fractions, percentages problems are no big issue
But trying to relearn the weird algebraic rules and finding area of a section of a rectangle etc. Ugh.
MY QUESTION IS:
How difficult is the material in terms of higher level math etc once in school? I've no issue with pharmacology or organic chemistry but doing these problems and re learning the basics is not in my wheelhouse of pleasant or desirable experiences

Dyestributor 2.0!
Almost a year and a half ago, my friend and I released our GameMaker Studio 2 game, Dyestributor, onto Steam - my friend had done the art, and I had done the programming. At the time I was nowhere near an expert in GMS2 or GML but I was very proud of the game I put out.
As time went on, I updated the game, but adding on to a shaky foundation was hard, and there came a time when I realized I needed to remake the game's backbone from the ground up. It was around March of 2024 that I started working on Dyestributor V2.0 and since the game's release in January of 2023, I had improved immensely within the confines of GMS2. I found myself fixing a ton of beginner mistakes and making baseline improvements that I thought sharing could help a beginner avoid learning the hard way!

First and foremost: Know your functions!

Knowing the tools that you have at your disposal is very important and using functions to simplify your ideas will save you countless headaches. Over time, browsing the GML manual became something I do for fun every once in a while just because functions are such an asset to your coding repertoire. Of course you don't need to do this too, but that's all to say that knowing what you have the ability to do is essential in GMS2.
Something that made me giggle when I uncovered it was old me's use of text drawing functions. When I very first started coding in GML, I made multiple versions of the same font asset with different sizes in order to customize the size of in-game text. It was soon in the original development of Dyestributor that I learned about the function draw_text_ext_transformed. This function allows extra parameters to customize how the text draws. Specifically I was looking for the xscale and yscale arguments which act as multipliers to the horizontal and vertical size of the text. I found this much easier than making multiple differently sized font assets, so I started using that function to draw all my text. An issue I found was that part of draw_text_ext_transformed are the sep and w parameters which allow you to customize when the text wraps and easily make paragraphs of text. This led me to set the w parameter to 99999 for lines of text that I didn't want to wrap. What I didn't know was that I didn't need to use draw_text_ext_transformed to get that text scaling functionality that I wanted. In GML there is also a function called draw_text_transformed. This function has the xscale and yscale arguments that I wanted, but doesn't have the sep and w arguments that I didn't want. Simply knowing this function exists made my code simpler, easier to understand, and ensured that I was using the right function for the job!

Secondly: Centralize Main Mechanics!

If possible, it's best to minimize repeating code. Try and centralize main mechanics to functions or single sections. Doing this makes the code easier to find, easier to understand, and easier to change. For example, in Dyestributor there are two scripts that handle block movement. One is the normal movement script named move_block and one is a script that handles slide movement which is called slide_block. There is a move counter in the bottom right when you're playing levels and to centralize the changing of this counter, the only spots where the moves variable is increased are once in each of the scripts. Centralizing the mechanics like this made it easy for me when I decided to add a 9999 move limit to the counter. All I had to do was simply add an if check to both scripts. Because the mechanic was centralized to the least amount of spots like this it was not only easy to make this change, but I also knew that it would work without issue because there were no other sections of code that increase move count and cause issues.

Thirdly: Surfaces... Exist!

This is less of a beginner mistake and more of a call to attention that a feature called Surfaces exists! I've found that a lot of people don't know that this feature exists and it's something that I've found to be very useful. You can find all the official information about surfaces here, but if you want a TL;DR, I'll break it down quickly. Surfaces are what GMS2 draws onto. By default, there is one surface called the application surface, which is what everything normally draws onto. Things get interesting when you start creating custom surfaces. You can customize custom surfaces to make complex and interesting effects easily. For example, a way that I use Surfaces in Dyestributor is for the hotkey list in the options of the level editor. Behind the scenes, there's a controller which creates a surface the size of the hotkey menu, draws all of the text, buttons, and other visuals to that surface, then draws that surface to the application surface. What this achieves is drawing the text and buttons to the edges of the menu box and automatically stopping them from drawing outside the box with no extra work.
This is just one of the many small but very useful features within GMS2. Explore and see what you can find!
The aforementioned hotkey menu, and an example of how surfaces can be used to create complex effects easily

Lastly: Make Your Code Your Own!

The way you code comes down to who are you and what you understand the easiest. GMS2 is extremely flexible in how it allows you to code so experiment, test different things out, and find what you like the best! What's most important is that you're comfortable and having fun!
All in all, I just wanted to show my love for GMS2 and GML since it was my first language and the software that I made my first full game in! I hope this information was at least a little bit useful to you and I appreciate you reading!
Any love towards Dyestributor would be much appreciated! Thank you!