Hey everyone! Has anyone here transferred their CBQ international share trading account to another bank outside the country? I need help with the process and would appreciate some advice from someone who has done this before. Thanks!

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Hello, I recently graduated from CEGEP (it's like college but it is in Quebec) and so I will not be using the student plans for my bank account soon. I am using a BMO student banking card and their cashback credit card. I'm looking for another chequing/saving account and another credit card( preferably cashback or reward points and not air miles)
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Also, I'm an international student and will become a permanent resident later this year or early next year. My parents will also move to Canada in a couple of months so I'm also looking for some banking options for newcomers.

I recently came across Diamond Reserve and wanted to share some insights on how they operate, especially for those interested in lab-grown diamonds. Here’s a breakdown of their process:

1. Sourcing: Diamond Reserve purchases their diamonds from various lab-grown diamond producers and distributors across Europe. They focus exclusively on 1 Carat Excellent or Rare Cut Round Diamonds that are 100% authentic.
2. Certification: Every diamond they sell is certified by the IGI (International Geological Institute). This certification involves a thorough examination and evaluation of the gemstone to determine its quality and authenticity. Factors like color, clarity, cut, and carat weight, along with any treatments or enhancements, are considered. Each diamond also comes with an engraved serial number for added assurance.
3. Storage: Diamonds are securely stored in banks across Europe until they are redeemed by a customer.
4. Redemption and Shipping: When a customer redeems a diamond, it is extracted from storage and shipped via DHL courier services. Due to the complexities of handling diamonds, shipping can start from around 5 to 30 days after redemption and can take anywhere from 2 to 45 days to reach the customer’s location.

This meticulous process ensures that every diamond you receive from Diamond Reserve is of the highest quality and authenticity, making them a reliable choice for lab-grown diamonds.

I wanted to share some interesting information about Diamond Reserve and how they operate with lab-grown diamonds. Here’s what I found out:

1. Diamond Acquisition: Diamond Reserve buys their diamonds from various reputable lab-grown diamond producers and distributors throughout Europe. They specifically select 1 Carat Excellent or Rare Cut Round Diamonds that are fully authentic and certified.
2. IGI Certification: All diamonds sold by Diamond Reserve come with an IGI (International Geological Institute) certification. The IGI grading process is quite comprehensive, examining the stone’s color, clarity, cut, carat weight, and any treatments or enhancements. Each diamond also has an engraved serial number, ensuring its authenticity and traceability.
3. Secure Storage: Once acquired, the diamonds are securely stored in banks across Europe until a customer places an order.
4. Order Fulfillment: Upon redemption, the diamonds are extracted from storage and shipped to the customer’s requested location using DHL courier services. Given the complexity involved in handling and shipping diamonds, this process can start from 5 to 30 days after the redemption request and can take an additional 2 to 45 days to arrive at the destination.

This thorough approach guarantees that each diamond from Diamond Reserve is of the highest quality and properly authenticated. It’s a fascinating process that highlights their commitment to quality and security.

Any advice you can offer would be appreciated. Thanks
Question: I currently have over 1.5 years of experience, and my current role is Custom Software Engineering Associate. I feel like this is more of an internal level at the company. Should I change it to something more universally recognized, like Associate Software Engineer, Software Developer, or Backend Developer??

Around a year ago, my wife and I were at the new Istanbul airport. I think it is one of the very few major airports without a free/unlimited wifi system.
To get an extended wifi service you need to use a kiosk at the center of huge and crowd area and enter your credit card info on a massive touch screen! I am not kidding, no swiping, no tapping, no Apple Pay, just a massive touch keyboard that anyone in your 10 feet area can read easily.
So we went to get one of these extended wifi vouchers from the kiosk, and all of a sudden a guy came very close to me and pretended that he was reading a sign above the kiosk. I asked him to move away and he pretended that he doesn’t understand English (while he was pretending to read an English sign!!) I was worried about him since he could read the credit card numbers that my wife was entering to the machine. So I asked her to stop entering the numbers and we almost got into an argument with the guy!
At this point, I looked around and realized that he was not alone and there were two more around us. And at any point there was at least one of them who could easily read the numbers.
They might be also thieves, using the first guy as a distraction agent so the other two could pick our pockets!
We just turned around and showed the guys that we know what they are up to and in a blink of an eye they all got disappeared! Like never existed!
I canceled that credit card on the spot using the bank app as soon as we could get an internet connection.
It happened inside the international terminal, as far as I know they couldn’t just randomly come to this area and leave without any trace. So I was curious to know how does this work for them?
I knew this airport is a not the nicest one and kept all my pockets empty all the time! My wife too. We double checked and made sure nothing was stolen.

Two Warp lines, 12 GB Shared, iPhones with eSIM only.
Last year I used an international eSIM to go to Canada but my home eSIM was constantly seeking a network. This killed my battery in half a day despite it using 'Wi-Fi Calling' through the int'l data eSIM. Sure, I could disable the home eSIM, but then SMS was not possible. I can't remember if this is also what killed Wi-Fi Calling until I returned home.
For another visit to Canada I used the beta international feature and it was perfect, but this won't work for Europe.
I reviewed the GSM options but don't want to pay $50 / line for Unlimited Premium to get seamless roaming. The AT&T ComingsoonStar is too delayed to be a contender.
It looks like my best option is the international eSIM and a portable battery bank. Any other ideas?

Exploration of an Innovative K-12 School Curriculum and Pedagogical Approaches
Before going over the curriculum we must first discuss how to best teach. All of the following methods outlined below are what would I would suggest be use to teach the students trying to use just one or even just two of these would not be enough and would compromise the students learning and education
Teaching Methods
Project-Based Learning (PBL): In PBL, students work on a project over an extended period, which could be a week or a month, to respond to a complex question, problem, or challenge. The projects are usually multi-disciplinary and require students to apply what they've learned in a practical manner. This allows them to see the immediate applicability of their learning.
Inquiry-Based Learning: This is a form of active learning that starts by posing questions, problems, or scenarios—rather than simply presenting established facts or portraying a smooth path to knowledge. Students are involved in the construction of their learning. They engage with the material, participate in the class, and collaborate with each other.
Gamification: Incorporating elements of game design in education can make learning fun and engaging. This can involve point systems, leaderboards, badges, or other game mechanics.
Experiential Learning: This method involves learning by doing and reflecting on the experience. It can include internships, study abroad programs, field trips, laboratory experiments, or any other hands-on learning experiences.
Flipped Classroom: In a flipped classroom, students review lecture materials at home and do their 'homework' in class, where they can ask for help as they practice new skills and apply new knowledge. This allows teachers to spend class time helping students apply what they've learned and coaching them as they work through challenges.
Cross-Disciplinary Projects: By integrating different disciplines into a single project, you can make the learning experience more holistic and interconnected, much like how the knowledge of different magical disciplines would combine in a fantasy setting.
Competency-Based Learning: In this educational model, students advance upon mastering a skill or a competency. This encourages active utilization of knowledge and immediate feedback, similar to how a magic student might advance only after successfully casting a particular spell.
Now that we have given a basic outline of the teaching styles we can go over the curriculum for K-12 the idea would be to Have an A/B day schedule and some classes would meet less frequently because they don't take much time to cover everything, all of this will be done in order to create well rounded students, people and citizens. They are not only creative in nature, but leaders in their own right as well as capable of doing whatever they desire and succeeding wildly
Core Curriculum Classes:
STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Art, Mathematics): must Ensure these subjects are covered both within the integrated curriculum (like coding in math, cooking in science, history in art, etc.) and as standalone classes to develop depth of knowledge.
Memory Techniques & Knowledge Management Techniques: Using an Integrated code based system with AI tools to help teacher track progress and provide more targeted assistance as well as help students with how to effectively organize and manage knowledge, covering basic note-taking, the PARA/CODE system. Using AI to provide semi interactive sessions that not only explain how memory works but also actively encourage the practice of using the note taking method & memory techniques
Project-Based Learning: Encourage practical application of knowledge through project-based learning. Gamification & Experiential Learning: Use these techniques to make learning more engaging and fun.
Flipped Classroom & Inquiry-Based Learning: Encourage independent learning and critical thinking through these teaching methods.
Elementary School: Coding & Digital Literacy: Introduce basic coding principles using visual coding platforms. Begin teaching about online safety and basic cybersecurity. Financial Literacy: Teach basic concepts like the value of money, saving, and spending. Potential to introduce the use of real currency and creating student based economy Community Service: Arrange class-based community projects and encourage involvement in community service outside of school. Gardening & Cooking: Teach students about plants, nutrition, and basic cooking skills through a school garden. Literacy & Reading: Develop a reading program that exposes students to a variety of genres. Writing can begin with simple sentences. History: Teach history from a holistic and critical perspective, exploring different cultures and perspectives. Basic Medicine & First Aid: Introduce simple health, hygiene, and basic first aid skills. Physical Education: Encourage a love for physical activity through a variety of engaging games. Emotional Regulation & Healthy Relationships with Technology: Incorporate social-emotional learning and healthy technology use. Leadership: Begin fostering leadership qualities through group activities and responsibility sharing. Self-Defense: Introduce basic safety rules and personal boundaries. Spanish: Introduce basic Spanish vocabulary and phrases, along with exposure to the culture of Spanish-speaking countries. Songs, games, and interactive activities can be used to make learning enjoyable.
Middle School: Coding, Digital Literacy & Practical Engineering: Continue coding education and introduce robotics and basic electronics. Financial Literacy: Start teaching about budgeting, banking, and simple concepts of earning. Potential to introduce the use of real currency and creating student based economy Community Service: Encourage students to plan and lead community service projects, either in groups or individually. Gardening & Cooking: Progress in gardening and cooking skills, introducing sustainability issues. Literacy, Reading, & Writing Skills: Increase complexity of reading and writing assignments. History: Provide more in-depth history education using primary sources and interpretations. Basic Medicine & First Aid: Offer a more detailed course on first aid and health. Physical Education: Introduce a range of physical activities, sports, and body awareness topics. Emotional Regulation & Healthy Relationships with Technology: Develop emotional intelligence skills, mindfulness practices, and education about responsible technology use. Leadership: Teach various leadership styles and emphasize group projects requiring delegation and decision-making. Self-Defense: Continue with more practical self-defense techniques. Study of Government: Begin a foundational study of the local and national government. Teach students about the branches of government, their roles, and how laws are made. Spanish: Continue to build on vocabulary and grammar learned in elementary school. Introduce simple written exercises and encourage basic conversation in Spanish.
High School: Coding, Digital Literacy & Practical Engineering: Offer advanced coding and practical engineering classes, including topics like 3D modeling and advanced electronics.Teach more advanced cybersecurity concepts and ethics of digital communication Gardening & Cooking: As elective courses, delve into advanced topics like food science or agricultural technology. Literacy, Reading, & Writing Skills: Offer a variety of literature courses, creative writing classes, and research-based writing. History: Teach history as a dynamic and interpretive subject, encouraging critical thinking. Basic Medicine & First Aid: Include more advanced first aid, mental health awareness, and basic human anatomy and physiology. Physical Education: Offer a range of athletic options, and include education about exercise science and long-term health benefits. Emotional Regulation & Healthy Relationships with Technology: Provide resources for emotional regulation, advanced mindfulness techniques, and in-depth discussions about technology's role in society. Leadership: Delve deeper into conflict resolution, strategic planning, and ethical leadership, often through real-world applications. Financial Literacy: Start teaching about budgeting, banking, and simple concepts of earning. Potential to encourage student to start their own business or get a job and have students buy things from each other Self-Defense/Mixed Martial Arts: For interested students, offer elective classes in mixed martial arts, fostering physical and mental skills. Study of Government: Expand on knowledge from middle school and introduce international government systems. Discuss the concepts of democracy, socialism, and other forms of government. Involve students in mock debates and simulations, like Model United Nations or Mock Parliament. Study of Politics: Begin a course on political science, covering key political ideologies, parties, and political processes. Discuss current events and involve students in debates and discussions to encourage critical thinking. Creating Change: Introduce a course on social activism and creating change. This can involve studying historical movements for change, understanding how to effect change within a legal framework, learning about peaceful protest, and planning and implementing a small-scale change project within the school or community. Spanish: Continue to deepen knowledge of Spanish. Encourage advanced conversation and written exercises. Students could read Spanish literature or news and discuss in class, fostering language skills and cultural understanding.
This kind of curriculum would be nearly the best, being interdisciplinary, hands-on, and centered around the interests and needs of the students. It would aim to not only equip students with the knowledge and skills they need to succeed in the world, but also ignite their passion for learning and encourage them to continue learning throughout their lives.
But before we’re done one last thing must be covered. How to assess a student's growth because science shows that paper tests are not suited for the task. There are many innovative ways to assess student understanding and skills without relying solely on traditional exams. The methods that could be used include Assessment Methods
Portfolios: Students could compile portfolios of their work, which could include code they've written, projects they've completed, or essays they've written. A portfolio allows students to demonstrate their learning process, their progress over time, and their ability to apply what they've learned in different contexts.
Presentations: Students can demonstrate their understanding of a topic by presenting on it. This could involve presenting a project they've completed, explaining a concept to the class, or debating a topic with classmates.
Peer and Self-Assessment: Students can learn a lot from assessing each other's work or their own work. This can help them develop a better understanding of the assessment criteria and improve their ability to critically evaluate work.
Performance Assessment: In subjects like self-defense, physical education, cooking, or gardening, students could be assessed based on their performance. This could involve demonstrating a technique, completing a task, or participating in a game or competition.
Reflective Journals: Students could maintain journals where they reflect on what they've learned, how they've applied it, and what they still want to understand better. This can give teachers insight into a student's thought process and their understanding of the subject.
Project-Based Assessment: Students can be assessed on the projects they complete, whether individually or in groups. This allows students to demonstrate a range of skills, including knowledge of the subject, problem-solving, creativity, and teamwork.
Community Service Assessment: In addition to the other assessments, teachers can assess students' community service involvement, their planning and leadership skills, as well as their reflections on their experiences.
The emphasis of Knowledge Management Techniques and Memory Techniques in core classes as a standalone session every day would ideally give students a break from traditional instruction and allow them to process and manage their learnings. This can be in the form of group discussions, independent reflection time, or guided activities for planning and organizing their work.

Chapter 3
Hurricane Georg.
Our first contact with the new world was a colossal hurricane. Veins of lightning shattered through the black, swirling clouds. I had just tried to calm the nerves of the ship when I saw Suri sitting in the hall beneath the control room.
She was in a lounge corner with her suitcase opened and her supplies scattered across the small table. The little light from the window illuminated her drawing for me to see over her shoulder.
The black and white sketch began at the bow of the ship. The figure of a man in facing the open ocean. Ahead of him, the familiar despair of Hurricane Georg. The man had his back towards the artist, but his stature sailed through the fierce storm without worry. His gaze only in the beautiful sight of home on the other side.
Her pencil began to etch the details of his crewmans jacket, "You have a gift, Suri. Truly, you do."
She was ahead of me, she did not jump or gasp as I had expected, "Thank you, Capi. I saw you in the reflection. Im hard to get the jump on."
"Then this shouldnt surprise you," I smiled and approached her table. "My capi stars are on the right side, "I stepped back and tapped my shoulder."
Disappointment inked her face, darkening her mood, "Dam."
I laughed and pulled up a chair. She had captured the view from the window perfectly and I made a point to tell her. As we talked the storm outside began to fade. The world around us was healed and the worries of yesterday had never existed.
Her eyes were near black, in color, and her skin was incredibly warm. Physical characteristic were useless to determine where a person was from, but 500 years ago, she would have fit at home with the people of the Middle East. Had I been a different man, her beauty and brain would make a perfect partner.
The longer I stared, the darker the world around us became. Until she broke my gaze and looked shocked at something through the window.
"Did you see that?"
"No, what was it?"
"I-Im not sure..." her face drained of color as the harsh rocking of the storm was interrupted by something else. Suri and I were flung off our chairs onto the floor, her supplies pelting us as they flew through the air. I tried to stand, but my legs were too soft to make it easy.
I struggled to a kneel using the bolted-down desk. Suri gasped and I looked down. The longer I looked, the itchier it became. Once more the world grew darker and I only had enough energy for a simple joke.
"Mr. Morgs was right about those things."
"Gud morning, Capi!" Ennay cheered from the wall-mounted screen.
I struggled to sit myself up. I was in the infirmary, only Ennay was there to greet me. My jacket was gone. All I had on was a white t-shirt and grey shorts.
"Officer Angelhart had your attire taken to be cleaned," Ennay chimed in, "Today is Wednesday, sir, 4:13am. Its the morning after you lost consciousness."
I thanked him and asked him to catch me up on the happenings in the passed half day.
"The reality is unclear, Capi, but Helmsman Archer believes we were attacked by a... a sea monster, sir."
"Archer? Hes no storyteller. Why?" I swung my legs over the bed, "get him down here or tell him im on my way."
Ennay surprised me with his fast response, "No. Sir, We had a breach. Ms. Aziz told the Doctor you had severed and artery during a spell of turbulence. The New Horizon had actually made contact with something what breached the hull. Damage Control responded in 4 minutes and were quick to contain flooding. However, we sustained a second breach."
Before he could continue, I dropped back onto the bed, "Whats the status?"
"On the New Horizon? Operational. A few sections had to be permanently sealed until we are out of this storm."
"And Damage Control?"
Ennay did not respond as quickly as he had been. It felt like an eternity before he told me, "6 casualties," the room fell completely silent. I couldnt even hear my heart beating, "5 fatalities. Sergant Franccigo Blanco is recovering in Infirmary 4C. He is unconscious, but has sustained gruesome wounds. Officer Angelhart declared a S.O.E. to assume your position. Otherwise,..."
"Yes, yes, the prosthetics. I hate that system."
"Well, sir, you are able to disable it."
"What?"
"Its not a very common scenario, but since we are not in International Sea, the law requiring your presence does not necessarily need to be enforced."
I sat back and thought for a second, "Ill discuss it with Dr. Mally. Where are they all?"
"Dr. Mally is in Infirmary 4C with Sergant Blanco. Officer Angelhart is your office filling out an incident report for both your accident and the breaches."
"Thank you, Ennay. Tell Max I am on my way and then let Dr. Mally know I will meet her shortly."
"Of course, sir."
My office was silent except for the fan gently spinning from the ceiling. Across from me was a young man, mid-twenties, with dusty blond hair. His uniform was perfect, he has even removed his hat on the perfect beat upon entering the room.
The appearance and demeanor any ship captain would be beyond proud to accept on his ship. It had just been dumb luck that he had lost both of his eyes to shrapnel sealing off the lower corridors during the state of emergency yesterday.
I poured Mr. Blanco a drink, 2444 Geoff Russel - The Hearty Mans Drink. I needed to finish the incident report, but Id never ask a man to relive what he had without a bit of buzz to his bite.
"So, Sargent Blanco, I-"
"You can call me, Fran, Capi."
"And you can call me Santago, for tonight anyway," I continued my questions. I tried my best to stay shallow and not dive deep into the pain Fran had endures just hours ago.
We talked about the 5 fatalities.
"Did you... see... them die?"
The gauze replacing his eyes stared at me, blankly. His face was uncanny, unhuman. Like the man inside may actually have been a 6th dead body.
"No," he quickly took a drink, "I did hear them, though. They yelled and screamed for me to open the door. I- I couldnt see. I thought the sea water had poisoned me somehow. I kept rubbing and rubbing my eyes hoping to get whatever radioactive stuff out of my head..." He took a breath. He was remarkably calm. Agitated, of course. But calm.
He continued, "I looked through the window on the bulkhead and the last thing I saw was Aleks staring back at me. His eyes were... he was calling out for me, I am sure of it. But something got him and he was sucked out."
"I am so sorry, Fran," I tried to write as quietly as possible to not remind him of the formality, "Do you know what got him?"
He finished his glass. As he set it down, he missed the table. The cup did not shatter, but it had jolted Fran from his memory. He lost his composure.
He started yelling at me about a horrific beast he had seen. How Aleks, Private Aleksander Igorsen, had been encased in blood and black sludge. He swung his hands wildly at the table in a rage, but had only managed to knock over a lamp.
Pity does not begin to describe what I felt watching him. Like a bleeding animal continuing to run from the wolves despite not knowing he was already surrounded. In him, I saw death. I saw anger. I saw fear. I saw what he was feeling imaging the creature that killed his men.
I grappled with him, trying to make my location known and always talking to him. I was not some monster from the unknown blackness set on hunting him and he needed to know that. He continued to struggle until I had completely engulfed his whirlwind into a hug. The screams turned to cries and then to whimpers.
After some time, I dismissed him back to his room and instructed Ennay that he was on suicide watch. Sergant Franccigo Blanco had earned a promotion or a permanent dismissal, whichever he wanted, but I needed him to take time to himself before I reminded him where we are.
The storm was intense, but at least it was consistent. By Katzs reckoning, we are approaching the halfway point of this hurricane. We had entered it 51 hours ago and Katz had said we are another 50 away from clear skies.
Unfortunately for all of us, Katzs theory was not seen through.
It began with our solar panelling being severed from their operating power banks. That was not a major issue, hydropower was our primary source. The issue arose when the New Horizon began to spin.
I had radioed the Helmsman demanding why we are weighing anchor, but the anchor was still resting above water. He said no one dropped the anchor. Something else entirely had us. We rushed to every window, every pane of glass to search for whatever it was that was stopping us.
Ennay spoke out, "Capi, Major Gorlammi has spotted our snag at 129 degrees. Nearest viewpoint is Residential Room L3D, assigned to L-"
I ignored the rest, I needed to see what was in that window. Luckily for me, Lucy Partridge was not home. I burst through the door and, for the first time, I saw a behemoth of a serpent-like creature sticking out of the water. I could not see a head, nor tail. I also had no idea if what I saw was the body or an appendage connected to some inconceivably large beast.
After enough time, I manage to figure out one of the ships heavy guns had pierced the creature and was holding us together. Our best bet was to either rotate the gun and hope its dislodged or to remove the gun entirely.
I relayed this information to Ennay to alerted the Gunner Teams and Damage Control. Yet, none of them would be given the chance. In the distance, silhouetted by sparks of lightning the size of the ship, I saw the head of the creature. It must have been miles away, but the size was unparalleled. Its head leaped from the water and swiveled back towards us. It was like a colossal eel. Flashes of light showed through its skin like veins until it sent a surge into the gun and into the ship.
The lights went out across the boat. The only light was the occasional flash from outside. It was completely dark, but I knew it was still coming for us.
I ran out of the quarters as emergency lights slowly burned. The hallway must have been 100 feet long before Id reach the staircase, but when I was halfway through, my feet left the ground.
I felt weightless for a moment. The lights burned out and all around me was darkness. My heart was incredibly slow or maybe time had slowed. I felt the doorframe to Mrs. Partridges room snap against my elbow. There was no pain. I didnt even feel pain when glass cut across my back as I was hurled through the shattered window.
I crashed into the water, it must have been hundreds of feet below me. I was in shock. I looked around and all I saw was darkness. Then, suddenly, all I saw was light. The eel sent a pulse through its body and for the first time I saw the monster entirely. It surrounded the ship above water, coiled all about the waves, and entangled the entire ocean as deep as I could see.
This is not a colossal eel surviving a hurricane.
This colossal eel is the very being causing the hurricane.
A cosmic terror named Hurricane Georg.

Reminder that since the start of Xi's 2nd term:

• Crackdown Trade war with the US
  
• Crackdown on democracy and transfer of power in China
  
• Crackdown on election term limits
  
• Crackdown on political corruption (people who might be threats to Xi and his 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on everything Hong Kong (seen as a threat to Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on Macau casinos (moving money out of China might be a threat to Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on Bitcoin, all other crypto currencies, and all other crypto related activities like mining (monetary movement seen as a potential threat to Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on BAT national champion techs (who might threaten against Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on Chinese fintechs like Ant group(who might threaten against Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on all companies internationally listed or in VIEs (seen as a threat to Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on upcoming and future international listings like DIDI who's data might be demanded in the future which might be (seen as a threat to Xi's future 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on celebrities (who might speak out against Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on movie and music developers not pushing national agenda (who might speak out against Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on HK and mainland trad media like newspapers, mags, tv news (who might speak out against Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on social media (where people might openly speak out against Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on for profit afterschool cram schools, tutoring, and education (Guise of helping the middle class citizen but actually locks them out of the little social mobility they have. Reality this mobility lock is seen as a stabilizing factor which helps Xi after he gets his 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on housing builders like Evergrande (Ditto with cram schools hurting the middle class) causing poor economy
  
• Crackdown on tech companies and international listing as educated youth unemployment spikes as a result of crackdowns and poor economy
  
• Crackdown on NEETs and laying flat movement with education and gaming changes
  
• Crackdown on gaming industry. Insisting full block M-F and 1hr max on weekends. (No fun allowed. No studying allowed. Only CCP school teachings. Afterschool is for CCP homework and restudying Xi JinPing thought)
  
• Crackdown on e-celebs, idols, and non-manly men. (who might speak out against Xi's 3rd term)
  
• Crackdown on now nothing-burger Omicron Covid (seen as a threat to Xi's 3rd term) by locking down the entire economy
  
• Crackdown on poor economy (seen as a threat to Xi's 3rd term) by printing more money and loosening monetary policies which ended up spiking inflation
  
• Crackdown on failing real estate market (seen as a threat to Xi's 3rd term) by pumping it with more cash, but only the select ones completely controlled by the state or Xi's buddies.
  
• Crackdown on waning consumer confidence in the banking and real estate system as the non-Xi/CCP banks can't pay out and real estate companies stop building due to previous crackdowns, 0 covid policy, and poor economic response
  
• Crackdown on inflation (a threat to Xi's 3rd term) by with authoritarian pricing controls and market manipulation which causes unnecessary monetary losses
  
• Crackdown on the real estate market not doing well
  
• Crackdown on it's own banks from buying dollars in a bid to shore up the strength of the Yuan in the face of outflows
  
• Crackdown on foreign tech companies
  

Then the CCP, Xi, and his yes men wonder why China is in disarray, economy is poor, cost of living is unaffordable, even as the economy is going into deflation, the population is in decline, the youth are unemployed, foreign corporations are leaving including the expats, tourists aren't coming to China, others don't want to invest in China anymore, and China's own people aren't happy while the rich are looking for the exits.
Yeah....

Hey guys im 19 and im in my first year of a « international business » degree in Europe , and i dont know which field i should specialize in to make bank and have a good life . I know that you dont directly have a insane position when you start working but i just want a job/field with a lot of grinding potiential to have a really good life and making my family enjoy life . About me , i dont really like mathematics and ive seen 2 types of jobs that could interest me but i still dont know perfectly what they do in their work , its Sales/ Tech sales ( idk the big difference and which one is better ) AND Product management type jobs .
( pls dont say im young and i have type bc i cant sleep when questions/debate are not closed inside my head ) Ty guys and i wish you the best.

A group of friends want to buy a shop with installment way for 4 years and they nominate a person among them as legal entity and sign Mou internally. This nominated person salary income alone sure not enough to pay installment but his group friends will support him every month to cover it by cash or bank transfer. Is this way allowed? How legal this from authority view if he has income from his group friends if investigation comes?

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What Sets Offshore Sportsbooks Apart?
The landscape of sports betting is rapidly evolving, with offshore sportsbooks emerging as a compelling alternative for wagerers. But what exactly are they, and how do they differ from their state-licensed counterparts?
Offshore sportsbooks operate under licenses issued by international regulators, often situated in countries like Costa Rica, Curacao, or Panama. These licenses empower them to cater to customers across numerous jurisdictions, including the US. In essence, this translates to a broader regulatory framework compared to state-by-state restrictions.
Safety and Security: Top Priorities for Offshore Sportsbooks
Security is paramount for any online betting platform. Fortunately, reputable offshore sportsbooks prioritize this aspect. They undergo rigorous licensing procedures, compelling them to demonstrate fair play, robust security measures, and responsible customer protection protocols. This ensures a safe and secure environment for you to wager on your favorite sports.
Beyond the Basics: Unmatched Selection and Competitive Advantages
The best offshore sportsbooks go beyond merely replicating the offerings of state-licensed operators. They often provide a wider array of betting options, competitive odds, and potentially more lucrative bonuses and promotions. This translates to a more dynamic and potentially rewarding betting experience.
So, Are Offshore Sportsbooks Right for You?
The decision ultimately rests on your individual preferences and priorities. Offshore sportsbooks provide a compelling option for those seeking diverse betting markets, competitive odds, and the freedom to wager on their terms. However, it's crucial to choose well-established and reputable platforms that prioritize safety and fair play.

Why Bet at Offshore Sportsbooks

The allure of offshore sportsbooks is undeniable. But what exactly makes them so popular among bettors? Here's a breakdown of the key benefits that keep users coming back for more:

• Boosted Bankrolls: Bigger Bonuses & Regular Promos

Offshore sportsbooks are renowned for their generous bonuses and promotions. New user signup bonuses can reach into the thousands, especially when using cryptocurrency. Plus, there's a constant stream of ongoing promotions throughout the month, maximizing your betting potential.

• Fast and Secure Banking: The Power of Crypto

Cryptocurrency deposits and withdrawals are a staple at offshore sportsbooks. Enjoy the ease of swift transactions with minimal processing times, and in some cases, even instant payouts.

• Wagering Freedom: Available in Most States & No Geolocation Hassles

Unlike state-licensed operators, offshore sportsbooks bypass geolocation restrictions. This means you can wager freely from most US states, without any limitations.

• Keeping Your Winnings: No Taxes Withheld

Federal regulations require licensed operators to report winnings exceeding a certain threshold and withhold taxes accordingly. Offshore sportsbooks, however, don't report winnings to the IRS, leaving you in control of your tax obligations.

• Enhanced Odds: Lower Costs, Better Returns

Offshore sportsbooks benefit from lower operational costs due to the absence of state taxes. These savings translate into more competitive odds for you, potentially increasing your returns.

• Diverse Betting Options

Beyond the perks mentioned above, offshore sportsbooks often boast a wider selection of betting markets compared to their state-regulated counterparts. This allows you to place wagers on a broader range of events and explore new betting opportunities.

Offshore Sportsbook Bonuses: Bigger Bankrolls, Better Bets

Offshore sportsbooks have carved a niche in the betting landscape, and a major reason for their popularity lies in their enticing bonus structures. Unlike state-licensed operators, offshore sportsbooks offer a wider array of bonuses with significantly higher values. Let's delve into the treasure trove of bonuses that await you:

• Welcome Offers: A Kickstart for Your Betting Journey

Signing up at an offshore sportsbook unlocks a generous welcome bonus, typically a deposit match bonus. This bonus essentially matches a percentage of your initial deposit, potentially doubling your bankroll right from the start. Some welcome packages might even include free bets or bonus bets, further amplifying your betting power.

• Deposit Match Bonuses: Fueling Your Bets with Extra Cash

A staple in the world of offshore sportsbook bonuses, deposit match bonuses are straightforward and rewarding. The sportsbook matches your deposit by a predefined percentage, up to a specified maximum amount. For instance, a 100% deposit match bonus up to $500 would double your initial deposit, providing you with an extra $500 to wager on.

• No Deposit Bonuses: Free Money, Free Play

Considered the holy grail of sportsbook bonuses, no deposit bonuses are rare gems. These bonuses grant you free credit to use at the sportsbook, allowing you to place bets without risking your own funds. While the credit amount might be modest, it's a fantastic opportunity to try out the platform and potentially turn it into real winnings.

• Bonus Bets: Taking a Free Shot at Victory

Bonus bets, often part of welcome packages or bundled with deposit match bonuses, are essentially free wagers. Any winnings accrued from a bonus bet (minus the initial stake) are yours to keep. Imagine a $25 bonus bet that wins you $75; you'd pocket a cool $50 in profit!

• Ongoing Promotions: A Stream of Rewards for Loyal Bettors

The party doesn't stop at the welcome bonus. Offshore sportsbooks keep their customers engaged with a steady stream of ongoing promotions. These can encompass deposit bonuses, bonus bets, special event wagers, parlay offers, and the ever-popular odds boosts.

• Odds Boosts: Enhanced Profits for Savvy Bettors

Odds boosts elevate the potential payout on specific wagers, increasing your earning potential. These are typically offered for marquee events or specific bet types within an event or sport.

• Parlay Insurance: A Safety Net for Your Multi-Leg Wagers

A parlay bet combines multiple wagers (legs) into a single bet. Parlay insurance softens the blow of losing a parlay by just one leg. While you won't receive your full winnings, you might get your original stake or a portion of it back, mitigating your losses.

• Loyalty Bonuses: Reap the Rewards of Being a Regular

Engaging with a sportsbook's loyalty program unlocks exclusive bonuses not available to casual bettors. These bonuses can mirror any of the previously mentioned options or even extend to real-world rewards like tickets to sporting events.
By understanding and leveraging the diverse array of offshore sportsbook bonuses, you can significantly enhance your bankroll, explore new betting opportunities, and potentially maximize your profits. Remember to explore various sportsbooks and compare their bonus structures to find the one that best suits your betting preferences.

Offshore Sports Betting in the US: A Comprehensive Guide

The world of sports betting is rapidly evolving, and offshore sportsbooks have emerged as a compelling option for American bettors. But with so much information to navigate, it's crucial to understand the legalities, accessibility, and benefits of offshore wagering.
Is Offshore Sports Betting Legal in the US?
The legality of offshore sports betting hinges on two key factors:

• PASPA Repeal: In 2018, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was repealed, giving individual states the authority to regulate sports gambling within their borders. Many states have since legalized and launched their own sports betting markets.
• Federal Laws: There are currently no federal laws prohibiting US citizens from wagering at offshore sportsbooks. These entities operate under licenses issued by international gaming authorities, allowing them to serve customers in the US.

The Mobile Advantage: Betting on the Go
While you won't find dedicated apps for offshore sportsbooks, all our recommended operators offer seamless mobile betting through their websites. Simply visit the site on your smartphone or tablet, sign up, deposit funds, and start placing wagers. These mobile platforms are designed for optimal functionality and provide an experience comparable to dedicated apps.
Finding the Right Offshore Sportsbook
With numerous offshore sportsbooks catering to US players, choosing the best fit requires careful consideration. Here are some factors to keep in mind:

• Reputation and Licensing: Look for established sportsbooks with licenses from reputable gaming jurisdictions like Curacao. These licenses ensure fair play, security measures, and responsible gambling practices.
• Betting Markets and Odds: Explore the variety of sports and events offered, along with the competitiveness of the odds. Top offshore sportsbooks boast a wide range of markets and attractive odds for bettors.
• Bonuses and Promotions: Take advantage of generous welcome bonuses, reload promotions, and ongoing loyalty programs to maximize your bankroll and potential returns.

Some of the highly-rated offshore sportsbooks for US players include BetOnline, Everygame, Bovada, BetWhale, and TG Casino. Popular alternatives encompass Jazz Sports, SportsBetting.ag, BetUS, and BetNow.
Taxes and Reporting:

• Offshore Sportsbooks: Offshore sportsbooks themselves do not report winnings to the IRS. However,
• US Taxpayers: It's your responsibility to report gambling winnings to the IRS and your state tax authorities. Consulting a tax professional is recommended to ensure compliance with all applicable regulations.

Funding Your Bets: Payment Methods
Offshore sportsbooks typically provide two main deposit and withdrawal options:

• Cryptocurrency: Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin offer fast, fee-free transactions (excluding minimal mining fees) and eliminate the need for third-party involvement.
• Traditional Methods: Credit/debit cards are convenient but may incur fees and are not always suitable for withdrawals. Bank wire transfers are another option, but often come with high processing fees.

Important Note: As of now, offshore sportsbooks do not accept PayPal or other popular eWallets (Neteller, Skrill) due to limitations imposed by these payment processors.
By understanding the legalities, mobile accessibility, key considerations for choosing a sportsbook, and payment methods, you can confidently navigate the world of offshore sports betting in the US. Remember to gamble responsibly and always prioritize licensed and reputable platforms.

Ready to Start Betting?

Top Offshore Sportsbooks for 2024

1. Bovada – Best Online Sportsbook for US customers

• Why #1: Closest offshore site to Fanduel & Draftkings
• Founded: 2011
• Licensed by: Curacao
• Payment Methods: 6+ cryptocurrencies, credit/debit cards, courier, wire transfer, vouchers
• Withdrawal Speed: Instant to 24h
• Restricted States: DE, MD, NV, NJ, NY
• Promo Code: BTCSWB750 = 75% First Deposit Bonus to $750

See current Bovada new customers promotions HERE

2. MyBookie – Fast mobile betting & lots of promotions

• Why #2: Prop bets and more props added constantly
• Founded: 2014
• Licensed by: Curacao
• Payment Methods: 10 cryptocurrencies, credit/debit cards, person2person
• Withdrawal Speed: 48-72 hours
• Restricted States: DE, MD, NV, NJ, NY
• Promo Code: CRYPTO100 = 100% Bonus to $1,000

See current MyBookie new customer promotions HERE

3. SportsBetting.ag – Operates in all 50 states

• Why #3: 100% welcome bonus & travel anywhere & still bet
• Founded: 2003
• Licensed by: Panama Gambling Control Board
• Payment Methods: 15+ cryptocurrencies, credit/debit cards, person2person, money orders, wire transfers, checks
• Withdrawal Speed: 24-48 hours
• Restricted States: None
• Promo Code: DOUBLEUP = 100% Bonus to $500 use 2x

See current Sportsbetting ag new customer promotions HERE

4. BetOnline – Clone of Sportsbetting ag but not as good of a welcome bonus

• Why #4: Casino, poker, esports, racebook - bet everything
• Founded: 2001
• Licensed by: Panama Gaming Commission
• Payment Methods: 15+ cryptocurrencies, credit/debit cards, money orders, wire transfers
• Withdrawal Speed: Instant to 48h
• Restricted States: NJ
• Promo Code: CRYTPO100 = 100% Bonus to $1,000

See current BetOnline new customer promotions HERE

5. XBet – MyBookie clone for lower limit bettors

• Why #5: Lower limits & rewards program designed for smaller bettors
• Founded: 2014
• Licensed by: Curacao
• Payment Methods: 10 cryptocurrencies, credit/debit cards, person2person
• Withdrawal Speed: 48 hours
• Restricted States: NY, NJ, NV, PA
• Promo Code: XBET50 = 50% First Deposit Bonus to $500

See current XBET new customer promotions HERE

These last two Sportsbooks are more for higher limit bettors

1. BetUS – High limits on sides and totals

• Why #1: If you want to make a living betting you need high limits
• Founded: 1994
• Licensed by: Curacao
• Payment Methods: 4 cryptocurrencies, credit/debit cards, cash transfers, wire transfers, ewallets
• Withdrawal Speed: 24-48 hours
• Restricted States: None
• Promo Code: JOIN200 = 200% up to $5,000

See current BetUS new customer promotions HERE

2. BUSR – High limits and a $2,500 welcome bonus

• Why #2: US focused on major sports and horse betting
• Founded: 2020
• Licensed by: Curacao
• Payment Methods: 4 cryptocurrencies, credit/debit cards, person2person
• Withdrawal Speed: 72 hours
• Restricted States: None
• Promo Code: SPORTS100FP = 100% First Deposit Bonus to $1,500

See current BUSR new customer promotions HERE
For more sports, casino, poker and other online gaming promotions from top offshore casinos.
Visit XSportsbook https://xsportsbook.com/bonuses/

I am an international student graduating from a university in Toronto. In February, I submitted a visitor visa application for my parents to attend my graduation ceremony in June 2024. I included all necessary supporting documents to demonstrate their financial solvency, such as recent bank statements showing ample funds (more than CAD $33,000) for the trip, and a property and fixed asset valuation report from a Chartered Accountant. Additionally, my parents have a strong international travel history including recent visits to the UK, the US and many other countries. I clearly stated in the invitation letter and the purpose of the travel document that their visit was to attend my graduation and that they would return home by the end of June 2024 due to business and property responsibilities.
These were the supporting documents for the application:

• I provided 3 bank statements that accumulate funds equivalent to $33,000 CAD and a fixed asset valuation report of my father’s property from a Chartered Accountant, reflecting its current fair market value of more than 5 Million CAD
  
• ⁠The purpose of travel is to attend my graduation mentioned in the invitation letter and the purpose of the travel document with the proof of solid family ties back home that shows they must come back by the end of June. Both my parents have a good international history with a record of recent visits to the UK, the USA and other countries.
  
• ⁠Documents proving their family ties to Home country are:
  
  • Asset valuation report that reflects property ownership
  • Recent bank statements that accumulates funds of $33,000 CAD
  • The business licence for my enterprise in Home Country
  • Rent receipts from all the tenants of my solely-owned business property with the rental agreement
  • Tax return since 2021
  • National Identity Documents

However, I received a refusal letter from IRCC last night including the following reasons:

I am not satisfied that you will leave Canada at the end of your stay as required by paragraph 179(b) of the IRPR (https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/regulations/SOR-2002-227/section-179.html). I am refusing your application because you have not established that you will leave Canada, based on the following factors: Your assets and financial situation are insufficient to support the stated purpose of travel for yourself (and any accompanying family member(s), if applicable). The purpose of your visit to Canada is not consistent with a temporary stay given the details you have provided in your application. 

I have 3 options in hand now: 1. Re-apply (Processing Time: 80+ days) 2. Reconsideration (as quickly as 5 business days) 3. Judicial Review (the most expensive and time consuming option)
I decided to submit a reconsideration letter. However, I am not sure how much of a difference it would make. I would appreciate any support on how to prepare an ideal reconsideration letter. Also, I would like to know if this reconsideration request actually makes any difference.
Thank you!

I am an international student graduating from a university in Toronto. In February, I submitted a visitor visa application for my parents to attend my graduation ceremony in June 2024. I included all necessary supporting documents to demonstrate their financial solvency, such as recent bank statements showing ample funds (more than CAD $33,000) for the trip, and a property and fixed asset valuation report from a Chartered Accountant. Additionally, my parents have a strong international travel history including recent visits to the UK, the US and many other countries. I clearly stated in the invitation letter and the purpose of the travel document that their visit was to attend my graduation and that they would return home by the end of June 2024 due to business and property responsibilities.
These were the supporting documents for the application:

• I provided 3 bank statements that accumulate funds equivalent to $33,000 CAD and a fixed asset valuation report of my father’s property from a Chartered Accountant, reflecting its current fair market value of more than 5 Million CAD
  
• ⁠The purpose of travel is to attend my graduation mentioned in the invitation letter and the purpose of the travel document with the proof of solid family ties back home that shows they must come back by the end of June. Both my parents have a good international history with a record of recent visits to the UK, the USA and other countries.
  
• ⁠Documents proving their family ties to Home country are:
  
  • Asset valuation report that reflects property ownership
  • Recent bank statements that accumulates funds of $33,000 CAD
  • The business licence for my enterprise in Home Country
  • Rent receipts from all the tenants of my solely-owned business property with the rental agreement
  • Tax return since 2021
  • National Identity Documents

However, I received a refusal letter from IRCC last night including the following reasons:

I am not satisfied that you will leave Canada at the end of your stay as required by paragraph 179(b) of the IRPR (https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/regulations/SOR-2002-227/section-179.html). I am refusing your application because you have not established that you will leave Canada, based on the following factors: Your assets and financial situation are insufficient to support the stated purpose of travel for yourself (and any accompanying family member(s), if applicable). The purpose of your visit to Canada is not consistent with a temporary stay given the details you have provided in your application. 

I have 3 options in hand now: 1. Re-apply (Processing Time: 80+ days) 2. Reconsideration (as quickly as 5 business days) 3. Judicial Review (the most expensive and time consuming option)
I decided to submit a reconsideration letter. However, I am not sure how much of a difference it would make. I would appreciate any support on how to prepare an ideal reconsideration letter. Also, I would like to know if this reconsideration request actually makes any difference.
Thank you!

I want to create a playbook on 'Understanding the PMP Question structures' for the PMP community here
Below is section one DRAFT. I think I've managed to use the PMP GPT simulator to align to its knowledge bank of questions and answers.
Feedback would be welcome before I look to develop the other sections - A) would it be helpful? b) Too much detail it may hinder or mislead ?
Othr sections would include 'decoding key phrases and terminology' eg risk indicators, issue indicators ...

1. Understanding Question Types

The PMP exam features various types of questions designed to assess your knowledge and understanding of project management principles, processes, and best practices. Recognizing and understanding these question types is crucial for approaching them effectively and maximizing your chances of success. Here are the main question types you can expect to encounter:

1.1 Action Questions

Action questions require you to identify the most appropriate action or next step to take in a given project scenario. These questions typically begin with phrases like "What should the project manager do?" or "What action should the project manager take next?" Examples include:

• "Do" Questions: Asking what the project manager should do in a specific situation.
• "Do Next" Questions: Inquiring about the most appropriate next step or action to take.
• "Do First" Questions: Assessing which action or step should be prioritized and done first.

These questions test your ability to apply project management knowledge and best practices to determine the most appropriate course of action in a given context. They often require you to consider various factors, such as project constraints, stakeholder needs, and potential impacts on scope, schedule, cost, and quality.
Example: "During the execution phase of a construction project, a major safety incident occurred on-site, resulting in injuries to several workers. What should the project manager do first?"
a) Immediately stop all work and secure the site to prevent further incidents. b) Conduct an investigation to determine the root cause of the incident. c) Update the risk register and develop a mitigation plan. d) Consult with the project sponsor and senior management.
Explanation and Breakdown: - Type: "Do First" Question - Immediate Priority: The question specifies "first," indicating a need to prioritize the immediate actions. - Options Analysis: - Option (a) addresses immediate safety by stopping work and securing the site. - Option (b) focuses on understanding the cause, which is secondary. - Option (c) deals with documentation and planning, which is not immediate. - Option (d) involves communication with management, which comes after ensuring safety. - Correct Answer: (a) - Stopping work and securing the site prevents further incidents and ensures immediate safety, which is the highest priority in project management. Addressing safety concerns immediately is crucial to prevent further harm and to comply with safety regulations. Once the site is secure, further steps such as investigation and communication can be taken.

1.2 Assessment Questions

Assessment questions evaluate your ability to analyze and assess past actions or decisions made in a project scenario. These questions often require you to identify what should have been done differently or what action or step was missed or overlooked. Examples include:

• "Should Have Done" Questions: Asking what the project manager should have done in a particular situation, implying that a different action or decision should have been taken.
• "Not Done" Questions: Inquiring about an action, step, or process that was not carried out but should have been.

These questions test your understanding of project management best practices and your ability to critically evaluate decisions and actions taken in a project. They may require you to recognize deviations from established processes, missed opportunities, or potential consequences of the actions described in the scenario.
Example: "During the planning phase of a software development project, the project manager failed to engage key stakeholders in defining the project scope and requirements. As a result, the project encountered significant scope creep and rework during execution. What should the project manager have done differently?"
a) Strictly enforced the defined project scope and rejected any scope changes. b) Obtained approval from the project sponsor before allowing scope changes. c) Involved key stakeholders in defining and validating the project scope and requirements. d) Consulted with the project team to prioritize the requested features within the existing scope.
Explanation and Breakdown: - Type: "Should Have Done" Question - Problem Identification: The scenario specifies the failure to engage key stakeholders, leading to scope creep and rework. - Options Analysis: - Option (a) suggests enforcement without stakeholder engagement, which is impractical and could lead to conflict. - Option (b) involves approval but does not prevent the initial issue of scope creep. - Option (c) addresses the root cause by involving stakeholders early on, ensuring their requirements and expectations are met. - Option (d) focuses on internal prioritization without addressing stakeholder input. - Correct Answer: (c) - Involving key stakeholders in defining and validating the project scope is essential for preventing scope creep and ensuring all requirements are understood and agreed upon from the start. This approach ensures that stakeholder expectations are managed and aligned with the project goals, reducing the likelihood of changes later in the project. Engaging stakeholders early also fosters a sense of ownership and collaboration, which is critical for project success.

1.3 Reactive Questions

Reactive questions test your ability to respond to project situations or challenges by identifying the most appropriate or inappropriate action or decision. These questions typically use phrases like "most likely" or "least likely" to assess your understanding of project management best practices. Examples include:

• "Least Likely" Questions: Asking you to identify the least likely or inappropriate action or decision in a given scenario.
• "Most Likely" Questions: Requiring you to select the most likely or appropriate action or decision to take.

These questions evaluate your ability to make sound judgments and prioritize appropriate responses based on the given project context. They may involve assessing the likelihood and potential impacts of different actions or decisions, as well as considering factors such as project constraints, stakeholder needs, and best practices.
Example: "A project is running behind schedule. The project manager decides to fast-track the project. Which of the following is least likely to be a consequence of this decision?"
a) Increased risk of rework. b) Improved stakeholder satisfaction. c) Increased project costs. d) Potential conflicts in resource allocation.
Explanation and Breakdown: - Type: "Least Likely" Question - Context Understanding: The project manager decides to fast-track the project to recover schedule delays. - Options Analysis: - Option (a) mentions increased risk of rework, a common outcome of fast-tracking due to overlapping tasks and potential errors. - Option (b) suggests improved stakeholder satisfaction, which is less likely as fast-tracking typically introduces more risks and issues. - Option (c) refers to increased costs due to additional resources or overtime required to accelerate the schedule. - Option (d) mentions potential conflicts in resource allocation, a typical risk of compressing schedules where resources are stretched thin. - Correct Answer: (b) - Fast-tracking typically leads to increased risks, costs, and resource conflicts. Stakeholder satisfaction is least likely to improve because the additional stress and potential quality issues that arise from fast-tracking can cause dissatisfaction. This answer reflects an understanding of the negative impacts of compressing project schedules and the trade-offs involved in such decisions.

1.4 Other Question Types

In addition to the above question types, you may encounter variations or combinations of these formats, such as:

• "Most Important" Questions: Assessing your ability to prioritize and identify the most important action, step, or consideration in a given scenario.
• "Least Important" Questions: Evaluating your understanding of which action, step, or consideration is least important or can be deprioritized.

Understanding and recognizing these different question types is essential for approaching each question effectively and providing the most appropriate response.
By familiarizing yourself with these question types and practicing with relevant examples, you can enhance your ability to tackle the PMP exam confidently and successfully.

I'm a 42 year old male, I met my wife when I was 18, she was 23 and we began 'dating' when I was 21, working a job I hated in the same place she worked (casino workers, if you know, you know). We hooked up at a Xmas party and started a very awkward relationship. I say awkward because we had some weird trouble having sex for the first like 6 months... it's odd when I think back on it, should have been a huge red flag but she was draped in reg flags the entire time and it didn't seem matter to me. Aside from that, when we finally did have sex she got pregnant... she was not at all ready, neither was I really, but are you ever? At any rate, I didn't have too much of say in it, she decided on an abortion and I supported her. We stayed together after that horribly shitty experience, our relationship was never really all that good, lots of petty fighting/arguing and really the only reason it continued was because we worked opposite shifts and barely saw each other which made it easier to sorta get along.
Fast forward a couple years, we decide to buy a house because financially it made sense (this is almost 20 years ago so it was still affordable at that time), she made quite a bit of money, mostly in tips (so not on paper), but she probably made 2-3 times as much as I did so she never really struggled financially (in her life I don't think) while I came out of poverty and lived paycheck to paycheck up until a few years ago (the pandemic was surprisingly good for my career). This was never really an issue for me, I've lived in debt my whole life and I've always had the optimism that I would eventually work my way out of it, it's really the only bit of confidence I have in myself, my ability to learn and become relatively good at almost anything. This was always a point of contention, my wife hated that I had debt so when we bought the house together we were asked if we wanted a joint bank account as most couples combine their finances with cohabitation, my wife scoffed and adamantly told the banker there was no way she's mixing her finances with mine, it was relatively embarrassing at the time but I was also just 25 (she was 30) so I went along with whatever, it was going to be slightly cheaper for me to pay a mortgage than rent at the time so I was in and she'd cover bills. Things were never that great when living together, things must have been good enough for me to stay but I only look back with anger now so it's hard to see anything good but I'm sure there must have been some.
Fast forward another couple years and I feel extremely pressured (by her and her family mostly, they're old fashioned country type folks) to ask her to marry me... so I do. We stay engaged for another few years, I have no desire to waste a bunch on money on a wedding but she's the one with money so we have the big wedding she wanted. I'll admit it was a pretty great party, I don't remember anything good involving her on our wedding day but I have lots of good memories with family and friends. Afterwards we went on a 'romantic' honeymoon at an all-inclusive tropical resort and this is where I'll get into a bit of what I've dealt with for years... our resort was gorgeous, room was nice, just a room but nice... first thing my wife did was complain, about everything, the bed, the fridge, the lights, the balcony... nothing was good enough for her, this would become a common theme for the next decade plus. We also did not have sex on our honeymoon, she was far too busy complaining and being angry for us to ever get in the 'mood', this would be more foreshadowing of what's to come.
Now, this might seem like I'm building up to her becoming really bad after getting married but that's not really the case... she was just as bad before, it didn't really get worse, it just became more noticeable... or maybe I just tolerated things more in the beginning. The truth is when I look back, there were so many signs, she casually put me down and basically treated me like a child from day one, something I just accepted because looking back, I was a fucking child when we got together... she was not really, five years my senior, and she very much took advantage of that dynamic. Over the years she slowly went about convincing me that the things I wanted were silly/ridiculous and that I should want what she wanted (the nice lawn, the house, kids, etc., etc.) because everyone should. I never wanted these things.
I won't get into details here because I could write a novel on the insane shit I've dealt with over the last 20 years that could prove this, but I did do a lot of research in the last few years and have come to the conclusion that she could have BPD with narcissistic traits... I'm obviously not a doctor so it's definitely not a diagnosis or anything but she ticks almost every box from the many many things I've read on the subject, so if you have a moment and you don't know what BPD is I suggest googling it. It's pretty terrible but it might give you a better idea of my life.
At any rate, I dug myself deeper and deeper, thinking that every next move would finally make her happy and bring me some kind of peace, so we had a child about a year after we were married. This is where it gets really tricky... I sincerely regret having a child with this woman, especially because she is not at all "cut out to be a mother" (her words, not mine) but her mother had been sick on and off with cancer for a few years and her older sister couldn't have children so she felt obligated to give her mom a grandchild, bad reasons all around to have a child. That being said, I love my son more than anything in the world. As much as I wish we did not bring him into this horrible world, he's still the very best thing to happen to me and I will take care of him and love him for the rest of my life no matter what.
I should mention, since I've eluded to it, I've always had self-esteem issues, goes all the way back to having acne problems in high school but my wife has methodically picked away at my confidence and self-esteem over the years, cutting me down to this very day... to the point that I feel very much worthless. I know that I'm not, I know I deserve better but another fun thing about my wife is her desperate need for sympathy... So, not only does she make me feel horrible about myself, she also manages to make me feel horrible FOR her... she's overweight, and I'm sure has low self-esteem herself but she has decided to take it out on others rather than internalize and try to make things better for herself. She would rather blame others for any of her short comings, I guess it's easier to convince yourself you can't do anything about it when it's someone else fault.
I apologize, because I feel like I'm a bit all over the place but I guess I'm just trying to set the scene for where I'm at now and give just a small glimpse of the hell I've been living in and how I got here...
The first few years of my sons life were pretty great (comparatively at least), honestly it was probably the best we've ever gotten along, probably because most of my focus (and hers) was on our son. Unfortunately, her mother passed away just after my son's first birthday, this was obviously devastating for her, not unexpected but still devastating. We're lucky in Canada because she had a full year maternity leave and was able to spend time with her mom. She took it very hard, and decided to stay off work for an additional 4-6 months (can't remember exactly). This was all fine and understandable, I supported her through all of it, financially and emotionally. Once she went back to work, this is when things took a real nose dive... she has always been a very entitled person but upon going back to work (part time I should mention) she decided everything was horrible for her so she was going to make it horrible for everyone around her. This went on for around 4-5 years (again, the time frames get fuzzy because it's been so long), it was hell. I really just plowed through for our son, I made him my main focus and I took care of everything. Without going into it too much, I sort of shifted gears with my job and focused on finding something that worked better for raising a kid, I got onto a full time day shift (unheard in the casino world) and we worked opposite shifts. It was pretty good for child care (that we couldn't afford) as one of us was always home. This made her more contentious... again, going back to the entitled thing, she felt it wasn't 'fair' for me to work a good shift, she should be the one doing that. I eventually worked my way out of casinos and into a work from home job (before COVID) and it was great, she could work whatever shift she had to and I would always be around for our son.
Fast forward again, my son's in school, she's still super angry at life and making things hellish but I do my best to make it good for our son. It's difficult to keep a smile on with him while putting up with temper tantrums and fits from my wife... yes, we had a toddler and she was the one who threw fits. For an example, I can recall one specific Xmas where my son and I were playing video games which is his biggest interest, something she absolutely hates, and she made a few comments about how we should be doing family things together for Xmas (it was Xmas eve), so my son and I got off the computer and played a board game in the living room... nice and wholesome fun I thought. My wife throws a fit, full on screaming and slamming things around, I don't even remember what for exactly, it happens so often I can't keep track anymore. Her temper tantrum ends with her storming off and slamming the door to her room. I'll never forget looking at my son right after, him tearing up a bit and asking me "what is wrong mom?" and I just said "I'm really sorry buddy, I don't know" and we hugged... I cried a lot about that that night, one of many times I would have to apologize for her and the way she acts around him. This is just one small example and a terrible Xmas memory that I'll always have, hopefully my son won't. I think the worst part of these 'tantrums' is that she can almost always justify them, only to herself really but usually by blaming me or my son for "making her so upset" or worse, blaming some inanimate object for "not working how it should".
Fast forward to now(ish)... I've basically lived in my basement for the last 5 years, my office and bedroom are there, I stay down there to avoid my wife as much as possible but it feels like a prison cell now. I've retreated from life in general over the years too, I've always been a pretty anti-social introvert, I prefer quiet one on one conversations rather than group settings. Most of my 'friends' over the last 10-15 years revolved around my job (casinos take over your life people, for real) and my wife, I slowly lost any friends that had no connection to her. This was partially due to me retreating and the fact that my wife would insert herself into any friendship that was just mine to the point that I sort shut those people out to avoid them having to deal with her. Sadly, I don't have friends anymore (didn't have many to begin with but still), my son is essentially my only friend and because I work from home by myself I rarely talk to any other adults. My wife and I talk only when necessary... I cannot make eye contact with her anymore. This is probably needless to say but we haven't had sex in over 6 and a half years and I don't cheat, I don't have the confidence, so I've just accepted that I'm celibate now.
One other area of contention that I feel I should explain since I've mentioned it already, through the pandemic there was a serious power shift, financially speaking. She essentially lost her job and is now in a lower paying part time job (more realistic pay compared to her previous job), whereas I made a couple job changes that bumped me up well ahead of her. For comparison, the salaries essentially flipped, almost exactly... to where I make 2-3 times what she makes. This has become an area of contention because this was something she was able to lord over me for the majority of our relationship, she spent money freely while I paid the mortgage and barely ate for the first 5 years we lived in the house but now, for the first time in her life she has to pay attention to her finances and watch her spending... she does not like this so it's just another thing to constantly complain about and make passive aggressive comments about the things that 'dad' can afford to do/buy but doesn't (mainly because I'm paying the mortgage and all the bills now while finally paying down some debt).
Oh, I should probably also mention that it's a regular thing for her to insult me and put me down in front of our son and on flip side of that she also uses him to garner sympathy from me ("shouldn't daddy feel bad mommy has to go to work?") it's very frustrating because I just want to protect my kid but I guess she knows that.
Again, I'll apologize for how disjointed this all is... the more I type, the more I think about shit to type... like I mentioned, I could write a novel on this, mostly because I have no real outlet, just sit in my basement talking to myself about it all... or I guess stewing in it.
So, I guess I should try to finish off with what exactly the advice is that I'm seeking... I essentially hate my wife, the word I use often is 'despise' and over the years we've had brief conversations where I've told her that "I'm done and I'm just here for the kid" and unfortunately she took this as push to work on our marriage harder and 'fix' things, far too little, too late. She makes me feel like the worse person in the world and yet I just can't bring myself to say to her face that I want a divorce... I feel sorry for her, fuck so much so that I bought a house with her, married her, and had a fucking kid with her... I'm sure that's not the case, I must have loved her at one point but I just can't see it anymore. I don't know why I can't say it to her, why I can't just end this... I'm so worried about how she'll react, what she'll do to me, to my kid... how she'll try and turn him against me. I'm just paralyzed with the fear of what could/will happen if I tell her we're getting a divorce.
I've made plans over the last few years to move out, rent an apartment for me and my kid and just continue to pay her bills until we can sell the house and split the profit. I can't afford to do this, it would cause me to go back into debt but I do not care, it would be worth it to get away from her. I have set deadline after deadline... "I'll do it after Xmas" or "after her birthday" or "before my birthday" and these days come and go and I just can't do it... I don't know what the hell is wrong with me, it's like I just don't want to hurt her, even though I'm hurting her by not ending things and she definitely doesn't give a shit about hurting me... I just don't want to face her and deal with it and how she will make the aftermath hell.. and I worry so much about my son, it would have been so much better for him if I would have divorced her years ago, he's fucking 10 now... another fear is having to explain it to him but we're setting a horrible example. One of my wife's favourite ways to use our son against me, is planting it in his head that "family is all that matters", focusing specifically on our little family, and how we have to "stick together no matter what, that's what family does". It's such an underhanded way to prep him for hating me because I'm "breaking up our family".
I would appreciate any advice on how the hell I can get over my paralyzing fear and just end this marriage or maybe you wanna come over and end it for me? I'm at a point where I'd take that... as I mentioned I've not shared most of this with anyone... so feedback would be a really new thing for me.
Oh, and please feel free to call me chicken shit, and tell me I just need to grow a pair and get this done... it's the same thing I've been saying to myself for years, not helpful but I understand the sentiment.
Shit... I'm sorry, this turned into a novel. Thank you.

AI has long been discussed in rationalist circles. There’s been a lot of focus on risks from artificial intelligence (particularly the idea that it might cause human extinction), but also the idea that artificial general intelligence might happen quite soon and subsequently transform society (e.g. supercharging economic growth in a technological singularity).
I’ve long found these arguments intriguing, and probably underrated by the public as a whole. I definitely don’t align myself with people like Steven Pinker who dismiss AI concerns entirely.
Nonetheless, I’ve noticed increasingly high confidence in beliefs of near-term transformative AI among rationalists. To be fair, it’s reasonable to update somewhat given recent advances like GPT-4. But among many, there is a belief that AI advances are the single most important thing happening right now. And among a minority, there are people with very extreme beliefs - such as quite high confidence that transformative AI is just a few years away, and/or that AI is very likely to kill us all.
My core arguments in this post are that firstly, from an “epistemic humility” or “outside view” perspective, we should be suspicious of confident views that the world is soon going to end (or change radically).
Secondly, the implications of the most radical views could cause people who hold them to inflict significant harm on themselves or others.

Who Believes In “AI Imminence”?

The single person I am most specifically critiquing is Eliezer Yudkowsky. Yudkowsky appears unwilling to give specific probabilities but writings like “Death With Dignity” has caused many including Scott Alexander to characterise him as believing that AI has a >90% chance of causing human extinction)
As a very prominent and very “doomy” rationalist, I worry that he may have convinced a fair number of people to share similar views, views which if taken seriously could hold its holders to feel depressed and/or make costly irrevocable decisions.
But though I think Yudkowsky deserves the most scrutiny, I don’t want to focus entirely on him.
Take Scott Alexander - he frames himself in the aforementioned link as “not as much of a doomer as some people”, yet gave a 33% probability (later adjusted downwards as a result of outside view considerations like those I raise in here) to “only” ~20%. While this leaves enough room for hope that it’s not as potentially dangerous a view as Yudkowsky’s, I agree with how the top Reddit comment in the original post said:

Is AI risk the only field where someone can write an article about how they’re not (much) of a doomer when they think that the risk of catastrophe/disasteextinction is 33%?

Beyond merely AI risk, claims about “transformative AI” date back to ideas about the “intelligent explosion” or “singularity” that are most popularly associated with Ray Kurzweil. A modern representation of this is Tom Davidson of Open Philanthropy, who wrote a report on takeoff speeds.
Other examples can be seen in (pseudo-)prediction markets popular with rationalists, such as Metaculus putting the median date of AGI at 2032, and Manifold Markets having a 17% chance of AI doom by 2100 (down from its peak of around 50% (!) in mid-2023).

Why Am I Sceptical?

My primary case for (moderate) scepticism is not about the object-level arguments around AI, but appealing to the “outside view”. My main arguments are:

• Superforecasters and financial markets are not giving high credence to transformative AI. Both groups have good track records, so we should strongly consider deferring to their views.
  
• The transformative AI argument is "fishy" (to borrow Will MacAskill’s argument against “The Most Important Century”). It implies that not only we are at an unusually pivotal time in history (perhaps the most important decade, let alone century), but that consequently, rationalists are perhaps the most important prophets in history. When your claims are that extraordinary, it seems much more likely that they're mistaken.
  
• The “inside view” arguments do not seem very robust to me. That is, they are highly speculative arguments that are primarily discussed among an insular group of people in usually relatively informal settings. I think you should be wary of any argument that emerges via this process, even if you can’t point to any specific way in which they are wrong.
  

Why I’m Against Highly Immodest Epistemology

However, maybe appealing to the “outside view” is incorrect? Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote a book, Inadequate Equiibria, which in large part argued against what he saw as excessive use of the “outside view”. He advises:

Try to spend most of your time thinking about the object level. If you’re spending more of your time thinking about your own reasoning ability and competence than you spend thinking about Japan’s interest rates and NGDP, or competing omega-6 vs. omega-3 metabolic pathways, you’re taking your eye off the ball.

I think Yudkowsky makes a fair point about being excessively modest. If you are forever doubting your own reasoning to the extent that you think you should defer to the majority of Americans who are creationists, you’ve gone too far.
But I think his case is increasingly weak the more radically immodest your views here. I’ll explain with the following analogy:
Suppose you were talking to someone who was highly confident in their new business idea. What is an appropriate use of a “modesty” argument cautioning against overconfidence?
A strong-form modesty argument would go something like “No new business idea could work, because if it could, someone would already have done it”. This is refuted by countless real-world examples, and I don’t think anyone actually believes in strong-form modesty.
A moderate-form modesty argument would go something like “Some new business ideas work, but most fail, even when their founders were quite confident in them. As an aspiring entrepreneur, you should think your chances of success in your new venture are similar to those of the reference class of aspiring entrepreneurs”.
The arguments against epistemic modesty in Inadequate Equilibria are mainly targeted against reasoning like this. And I think here there’s a case where we can have reasonable disagreement about the appropriate level of modesty. You may have some good reasons to believe that your idea is unusually good or that you are unusually likely to succeed as an entrepreneur. (Though a caveat: with too many degrees of freedom, I think you run the risk of leading yourself to whatever conclusion you like).
For the weak-form modesty argument, let’s further specify that your aspiring entrepreneur’s claim was “I’m over 90% confident that my business will make me the richest person in the world”.
To such a person, I would say: “Your claim is so incredibly unlikely a priori and so self-aggrandising that I feel comfortable in saying you’re overconfident without even needing to consider your arguments”.
That is basically what I feel about Eliezer Yudwosky and AI.
Let’s take a minute to consider what the implications are if Yudkowsky is correctly calibrated about his beliefs in AI. For a long time, he was one of the few people in the world to be seriously concerned about it, and even now, with many more people concerned about AI risk, he stands out as having some of the highest confidence in doom.
If he’s right, then he’s arguably the most important prophet in history. Countless people throughout history have tried forecasting boon or bust (and almost always been wrong). But on arguably the most important question in human history - when we will go extinct and why - Yudkowsky was among the very few people to see it and easily the most forceful.
Indeed, I’d say this is a much more immodest claim than claiming your business idea will make you the richest person in the world. The title of the richest person in the world has been shared by numerous people throughout history, but “the most accurate prophet of human extinction” is a title that can only ever be held by one person.
I think Scott Alexander’s essay Epistemic Learned Helplessness teaches a good lesson here. Argument convincingness isn’t necessarily strongly correlated with the truth of a claim. If someone gives you what appears to be a strong argument for something that appears crazy, you should nonetheless remain highly sceptical.
Yet I feel like Yudkowsky wants to appeal to “argument convincingness” because that’s what he’s good at. He has spent decades honing his skills arguing on the internet, and much less at acquiring traditional credentials and prestige. “Thinking on the object level” sounds like it’s about being serious and truth-seeking, but I think in practice it’s about privileging convincing-sounding arguments and being a good internet debater above all other evidence.
A further concern I have about “argument convincingness” for AI is that there’s almost certainly a large “motivation gap” in favour of the production of pro-AI-risk arguments compared to anti-AI-risk arguments, with the worriers spending considerably more time and effort than the detractors. As Philip Trammel points out in his post “But Have They Engaged with The Arguments?, this is true of almost any relatively fringe position. This can make the apparent balance of “argumentative evidence” misleading in those cases, with AI no exception.
Finally, Yudkowsky’s case for immodesty depends partly on alleging he has a good track record of applying immodesty to “beat the experts”. But his main examples (a lightbox experiment and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan) I don’t find that impressive given he could cherry-pick. Here’s an article alleging that Yudkowsky’s predictions have frequently between egregiously wrong and here’s another arguing that his Bank of Japan position in particular didn’t ultimately pan out.

Why I’m Also Sceptical of Moderately Immodest Epistemology

I think high-confidence predictions of doom (or utopia) are much more problematic than relatively moderate views - they are more likely to be wrong, and if taken seriously, more strongly imply that the believer should consider making radical, probably harmful life changes.
But I do still worry that the ability to contrast with super confident people like Yudkowsky lets the “not a total doomer” people off the hook a little too easily. I think it’s admirable that Scott Alexander seriously grappled with the fact that superforecasters disagreed with him and updated downwards based on that observation.
Still, let’s revisit the “aspiring entrepreneur” analogy - imagine they had instead said: “You know what, I’ve listened to your claims about modesty and agree that I’ve been overconfident. I now think there’s only a 20% chance that my business idea will make me the richest person in the world”.
Sure - they’ve moved in the right direction, but it’s easy to see that they’re still not doing modesty very well.
An anti-anti-AI risk argument Scott made (in MR Tries the Safe Uncertainly Fallacy) is that appealing to base rates leaves you vulnerable to “reference class tennis” where both sides can appeal to different reference classes, and the “only winning move is not to play”.
Yet in the case of our aspiring entrepreneur, I think the base rate argument of “extremely few people can become the richest person in the world” is very robust. If the entrepreneur tried to counter with “But I can come up with all sorts of other reference classes in which I come out more favourably! Reference class tennis! Engage with my object-level arguments!”, it would not be reasonable to throw up your hands and say “Well, I can’t come up with good counterarguments, so I guess you probably do have a 20% chance of becoming the richest person in the world then”.
I contend that “many people have predicted the end of the world and they’ve all been wrong” is another highly robust reference class. Yes, you can protest about “anthropic effects” or reasons why “this time is different”. And maybe the reasons why “this time is different” are indeed a lot better than usual. Still, I contend that you should start from a prior of overwhelming skepticism and only make small updates based on arguments you read. You should not go “I read these essays with convincing arguments about how we’re all going to die, I guess I just believe that now”.

What Should We Make Of Surveys Of AI Experts?

Surveys done of AI experts, as well as opinions of well-regarded experts like Geoffrey Hinton and Stewart Russell, have shown significant concerns about AI risk (example).
I think this is good evidence for taking AI risk seriously. One important thing it does is raise AI risk out of the reference class of garden-variety doomsday predictions/crazy-sounding theories that have no expert backing.
However, I think it’s still only moderately good evidence.
Firstly, I think we should not consider it as an “expert consensus” nearly as strong as say, the expert consensus on climate change. There is nothing like an IPCC for AI, for example. This is not a mature, academically rigorous field. I don’t think we should update too strongly from AI experts spending a few minutes filling in a survey. (See for instance this comment about the survey, showing how non-robust the answers given are, indicating the responders aren’t thinking super hard about the questions).
Secondly, I believe forecasting AI risk is a multi-disciplinary skill. Consider for instance asking physicists to predict the chances of human extinction due to nuclear war in the 1930s. They would have an advantage in predicting nuclear capabilities, but after nuclear weapons were developed, the reasons we haven’t had a nuclear war yet have much more to do with international relations than nuclear physics.
And maybe AGI is so radically different from the AI that exists today that perhaps asking AI researchers now about AI risk might have been like asking 19th-century musket manufacturers about the risk from a hypothetical future “super weapon”.
I think an instructive analogy were the failed neo-Malthusian predictions of the 1960s and 1970s, such as The Population Bomb or The Limits to Growth. Although I’m unable to find clear evidence of this, my impression is that these beliefs were quite mainstream among the most “obvious” expert class of biologists (The Population Bomb author Paul Ehlrich had a PhD in biology), and the primary critics tended to be in other fields like economics (most notably Julian Simon). Biologists had insights, but they also had blind spots. Any “expert survey” that only interviewed biologists would have missed crucial insights from other disciplines.

What Are The Potential Consequences Of Overconfidence?

People have overconfident beliefs all the time. Some people erroneously thought Hillary Clinton was ~99% likely to win the 2016 Presidential election. Does it matter that much if they’re overconfident about AI?
Well, suppose you were overconfident about Clinton. You probably didn’t do anything differently in your life, and the only real cost of your overconfidence was being unusually surprised on election day 2016. Even one of the people who was that confident in Clinton didn’t suffer any worse consequences than eating a bug on national television.
But take someone who is ~90% confident that AI will radically transform or destroy society (“singularity or extinction by 2040") and seriously acts like it.
Given that, it seems apparently reasonable to be much more short-term focused. You might choose to stop saving for retirement. You might forgo education on the basis that it will be obsolete soon. These are actions that some people have previously taken, are considering taking or are actually taking because of expectations of AI progress.
At a societal level, high confidence in short-term transformative AI implies that almost all non-AI related long-term planning that humanity does is probably a waste. The most notable example would be climate change. If AI either kills us or radically speeds up scientific and economic growth by the middle of the century, then it seems pretty stupid to be worrying about climate change. Indeed, we’re probably underconsuming fossil fuels that could be used to improve the lives of people right now.
At its worst, there is the possibility of AI-risk-motivated terrorism. Here’s a twitter thread from Emil Torres talking about this, noticeably this tweet in particular about minutes from an AI safety workshop “sending bombs” to OpenAI and DeepMind.
To be fair, I think it’s highly likely the people writing that were trolling. Still - if you’re a cold-blooded utilitarian bullet-biter with short timelines and high p(doom), I could easily see you rationalising such actions.
I want to be super careful about this - I don’t want to come across as claiming that terrorism is a particularly likely consequence of “AI dooming”, nor do I want to risk raising the probability of it by discussing it too much and planting the seed of it in someone’s head. But a community that takes small risks seriously should be cognizant of the possibility. This is a concern that I think anyone with a large audience and relatively extreme views (about AI or anything) should take into account.

Conclusion

This post has been kicking around in draft form since around the release of GPT-4 a year ago. At that time, there were a lot of breathless takes on Twitter about how AGI was just around the corner, Yudkowsy was appearing on a lot of podcasts saying we were all going to die, and I started to feel like lots of people had gone a bit far off on the deep end.
Since then I feel there’s a little bit of a vibe shift away from the most extreme scenarios (as exhibited in the Manifold extinction markets), as well as me personally probably overestimating how many people ever believed in them. I’ve found it hard to try to properly articulate the message: “You’re probably directionally correct relative to society as a whole, but some unspecified number of you have probably gone too far”.
Nonetheless, my main takeaways are:

• Eliezer Yudkowsky (these days) is probably causing harm, and people with moderate concerns about AI should distance themselves from him. Espousing views that we are all likely to die from AI should not be tolerated as a merely strong opinion, but as something that can cause meaningful harm to people who believe it. I feel this might actually be happening to some degree (I think it’s notable that e.g. the 80,000 Hours podcast has never interviewed him, despite interviewing plenty of other AI-risk-concerned people). But I would like to see more of a “Sister Souljah moment” where e.g. a prominent EA thought leader explicitly disavows him.
  
• Yudkowsky being the worst offender doesn't let everyone else off the hook. For instance, I think Scott Alexander is much better at taking modesty seriously, yet I don't think he takes it seriously enough.
  
• We should be generally suspicious of arguments for crazy-sounding things. I have not only become more suspicious of arguments about AI, but also other arguments relatively popular in rationalist or EA circles, but not so much outside it (think certain types of utilitarian arguments that imply that e.g. maybe insect welfare or the long-term future outweighs everything else). I appreciate that they might say something worth considering, and perhaps weak-form versions of them could be reasonable. But the heuristic of “You probably haven’t found the single most important thing ever” is something I think should be given more weight.