Just wondering my chances for ivy admission - my top schools are Yale, brown, Dartmouth, and Barnard. For background, I'm upper middle class, white, a girl, and have legacy at UPenn. Medium size public high school (1300 ppl). Applying for government/poli sci and Spanish literature
Academics: 1) 35 ACT (35 English, 36 science and reading, 34 math) 2) 3.97/4 UW (2 A- in math... noticing a pattern?) 3) Full IB diploma program with 4 HLs (economics, English, math, and history) then AP gov (5) and AP stat (4)
Honors: 1) 3 dedicated to debate tournament wins, national rankings (top 20), and speaking at an event ab social Justice and debate 2) Mock trial states qualifier semifinalist 3) global seal of biliteracy for Spanish
ECs) 1) big leadership position in making nat'l level debate league more accessible (community service) 2) debate captain (2 yrs) and good at it (went tiostates and nats (x2) for debate, states for speech) 3) state director of nat'l nonprofit dedicated to increasing youth civic participation and education (interview politicians, publish voter reg and specific issue info, etc) 4) write questions for and moderate my school board candidate debates 5) mock trial captain (2 yrs) and treasurer who ran first ever fundraiser (3) and only team member to have 2 roles on both sides in club history (#team player) 6) merit scholarship to move to Spain and study Spanish for summer before 11th grade 7) pilot! and I've run multi-year inclusivity and community-building initiatives at my flying club + mentored newer students 8) minor stuco leadership position (cochair PR committee) 9) babysitter for 4 years, like 8 hours a week 10) I have a redbubble sticker designing business for 4 years (100+ sales in 8 countries!)
Be viciously honest pls! I'm just curious lol I won't take it personally

I played a lot of Halo growing up. I've played Halo 1-3, Halo Reach, and Halo 4. I didn't play Halo 3: ODST but did own it as part of the Halo: The Master Chief Collection on PC. Get it, it goes on sales pretty often and you get 6 games worth to play if you haven't played.
Halo 3: ODST plays into its story driven elements more than the rest of the Halo series. You are the Rookie, another silent protagonist, but instead of saving the world, you're trying to piece together the mystery of where your team is after your team is scattered dropping down from space. You wake up in New Mombasa, Kenya at night. You go around the city looking for clues of your team, and play as other teammates once you find the clues. Eventually, the clues click and you rendezvous with your team and complete your team's mission.
One of the big highlights is the music. It really plays a somber and exploratory theme filled with piano and sax. It's one of my favorite things in the night levels exploring the city. The atmosphere is fun, but the city design is a little linear - from one clue to the next.
Playing as your teammates in flashbacks are pretty fun. My favorite is Uplift Reserve, where you drive a Warthog through the nature reserve and fight Covenant along the way. There's a scene where you watch the space elevator crash; the sheer scale of it falling is quite an awe. It's similar to Tsavo Highway or The Storm in Halo 3.
My next favorite level is NMPD HQ. The start is a sniper mission on the rooftops of skyscrapers, pretty basic stuff. The second half is defending a helipad, and the weapons you get are overloaded. Multiple Missile Pod Launcher, Rocket Launchers, and Spartan Lasers. You can go wild. It's satisfying taking down Banshees and Phantoms with these overpowered weapons.
Finally, the last level Coastal Highway is incredibly fun to play. The first half is on the highway and you control a Warthog and later a Scorpion tank. Just blast your way through. The second half is a defend your landing zone again. It's a little difficult you face multiple waves of enemies, but there are weapons scattered all over so it's enjoyable constantly switching up strategies. After multiple waves, your team rescues you and a few allies at the landing zone and the game ends into cutscene.
Is this the best Halo game? No, my favorites are Halo: Reach and Halo 2. Is it still enjoyable for Halo fans? Absolutely! The game took me about 7 hours, so it's on the shorter side which may be a pro or con for you. Another con might be the game is fairly linear, including exploring New Mombasa, but most Halo games are pretty linear. Overall, it's a fun game that spins off from the Halo saga, but hits the mark completely.

~RIGL Thesis – 5/18/2024~
Outstanding Shares 175M
131 Institutional Holders
111,129,461 Total Shares Held
63.36% Institutional Ownership
Total Cash on Hand 3/31/2024 = $49.6M
Total Debt: $101.5M
Cash Burn Approximate = $8M per quarter (6 quarters of cash without any increases in revenue)
Q12023 REV = $26M
Q22023 REV = $26.8M
Q32023 REV = $28.1M
Q42023 REV = $35.8M
Q12024 REV = $29.5M (Decline from Q4 likely from end of year versus new-year tracking of Rx and shipments of drugs, resetting of Copays)
Most Recent EPS -$0.05 per share
May 22, 2024 - Vote on S will take place, caution
~Statistics Applicable To Thesis~
333.3 million US Population (2022)
8,109,679,892 Global Population (2024)
~Drugs On Market~
~Tavalisse – Treatment for ITP, FDA Approved April 17, 2018~
~What is ITP?~
Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an illness that can lead to bruising and bleeding. Low levels of the cells that help blood clot, also known as platelets, most often cause the bleeding.
Once known as idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, ITP can cause purple bruises. It also can cause tiny reddish-purple dots on the skin that look like a rash.
Children can get ITP after a virus. They most often get better without treatment. In adults, the illness often lasts months or years. People with ITP who aren't bleeding and whose platelet count isn't too low might not need treatment. For worse symptoms, treatment might include medicines to raise platelet count or surgery to remove the spleen. Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) - Symptoms and causes - Mayo Clinic
~What is Tavalisse?~
TAVALISSE is a prescription medication used to treat adults with low platelet counts due to chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) when a prior treatment for ITP has not worked well enough. It is not known if TAVALISSE is safe and effective in children.
The cost for Tavalisse oral tablet 100 mg is around $15,404 for a supply of 60 tablets, depending on the pharmacy you visit. Quoted prices are for cash-paying customers and are not valid with insurance plans. This price guide is based on using the Drugs.com discount card which is accepted at most U.S. pharmacies.
Tavalisse Prices, Coupons, Copay & Patient Assistance - Drugs.com
TAVALISSE IS AN ORAL MEDICATION TAKEN TWICE DAILY WITH OR WITHOUT FOOD¹
A 12-week evaluation period is recommended
60 tablets = 1 month supply, evaluation period = 3 months, Cost for 3 months = $46,212 Cash, assuming cheaper through wholesale, insurance, discount cards, etc.
Dosing TAVALISSE® (fostamatinib disodium hexahydrate) tablets (tavalissehcp.com)
~Addressable Market~
“Our findings suggest that nearly 20,000 children and adults are newly diagnosed with ITP each year in the US, substantially higher than previously reported. Among patients requiring formal medical care, the economic burden during the first 12 months following diagnosis is high, with estimated US expenditures totaling over $400 million.”
Primary immune thrombocytopenia in US clinical practice: incidence and healthcare burden in first 12 months following diagnosis - PubMed (nih.gov)
The estimated prevalence of ITP in the United States is 9.5 per 100,000 people, with a global prevalence of over 200,000 people at any given time [1].
Immune thrombocytopenia. [ Oct; 2022 ]. 2022. https://rarediseases.org/rare-diseases/immune-thrombocytopenia
~Author Calculations/Estimates~
ITP estimated cases based on measured statistics 31,635 cases a year in the US and 770,355 cases globally each year.
~Rezlidhia – R Acute Myeloid Leukemia, FDA Approved December, 22, 2022~
~What is Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia?~
Relapsed, or recurrent, acute myeloid leukemia (AML) means the leukemia has come back after treatment and remission.
Refractory AML means the leukemia did not respond to treatment. Complete remission has not been reached because the chemotherapy drugs did not kill enough leukemia cells.
Both relapsed and refractory AML need more treatment to reach complete remission.
Your healthcare team will suggest treatments based on your needs and work with you to develop a treatment plan. Some factors considered for your treatment include:
your age
your health
how long the leukemia was in remission
treatments you had before
where the leukemia comes back
Treatment options usually include chemotherapy and a stem cell transplant if possible. Targeted therapy may also be used.
Treatments for relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia Canadian Cancer Society
~What is IDH1?~
Somatic mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) genes occur frequently in adult Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and less commonly in pediatric AML… Enhanced genomic and epigenomic profiling of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has led to identification of recurrent mutations that are prognostic and are candidates for targeted therapy. Somatic mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) genes, IDH1 and IDH2, occur in ∼6% to 16% and ∼8% to 19% of adult patients with AML, respectively.^1-5 In pediatric AML, IDH mutations are rare, occurring in <4% of patients.^6-11
Characteristics and prognostic impact of IDH mutations in AML: a COG, SWOG, and ECOG analysis Blood Advances American Society of Hematology (ashpublications.org)
~What is Rezlidhia?~
REZLIDHIA is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with an isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH1) mutation when the disease has come back or has not improved after previous treatment(s).
Targeted Treatment REZLIDHIA® (olutasidenib) capsules
The cost for Rezlidhia oral capsule 150 mg is around $17,468 for a supply of 30 capsules, depending on the pharmacy you visit. Quoted prices are for cash-paying customers and are not valid with insurance plans. This price guide is based on using the Drugs.com discount card which is accepted at most U.S. pharmacies.
Rezlidhia Prices, Coupons, Copay & Patient Assistance - Drugs.com%20is%20a%20member,on%20the%20pharmacy%20you%20visit.)
~Addressable Market~
The annual incidence of new cases in both men and women is approximately 4.3 per 100,000 population, totaling over 20,000 cases per year in the United States alone.[13] The median age at the time of diagnosis is about 68, with a higher prevalence observed among non-Hispanic Whites. Furthermore, males exhibit a higher incidence compared to females, with a ratio of 5:3.
Acute Myeloid Leukemia - StatPearls - NCBI Bookshelf (nih.gov)
~Author Calculations/Estimates~
Cases of AML with IDH1 would be 11% based on the median of statistics above (6% to 16%) leaving approximately 1500 to 2000 cases a year in the US. Appling the same calculations to world population would amount to approximately 38,500 cases a year globally.
~Gavreto – Treats RET+ Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer In Adults and RET+ Thyroid Cancer in Kids and Adults, FDA Approved August 9, 2023~
For the sake of common ground, I am going to assume these types of cancers do not need to be elaborated on as we all likely have a basic understanding of what they are. The medical conditions treated by Tavalisse and Rezlidhia I felt needed a more in-depth explanation because they are not common. I will elaborate on RET+ a little later in this writing.
~What is Gavreto?~
GAVRETO is an oral once daily prescription medicine used to treat certain cancers caused by abnormal rearranged during transfection ~(RET+)~ genes in:
Adults with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) that has spread
Adults and children 12 years of age and older with advanced thyroid cancer or thyroid cancer that has spread who require a medicine by mouth or injection (systemic therapy) and who have received radioactive iodine and it did not work or is no longer working*
It is not known if GAVRETO is safe and effective when used to treat cancers caused by abnormal RET genes in children for the treatment of NSCLC or in children younger than 12 years of age for the treatment of thyroid cancer.
Home GAVRETO® (pralsetinib)
The cost for Gavreto oral capsule 100 mg is around $11,745 for a supply of 60 capsules, depending on the pharmacy you visit. Quoted prices are for cash-paying customers and are not valid with insurance plans. This price guide is based on using the Drugs.com discount card which is accepted at most U.S. pharmacies.
The recommended dosage for adults and children 12 and over is 400mg orally once daily. Each capsule is 100mg, which means you will take 4 capsules. Gavreto should be taken on an empty stomach, at least 1 hour before or 2 hours after a meal.
Gavreto Prices, Coupons, Copay & Patient Assistance - Drugs.com
~What is Rearranged During Transfection Positive (RET+)?~
RET-positive cancer is caused by a mutation or abnormal re-arrangement of the RET gene. It occurs most commonly in lung cancer and several types of inherited and sporadic thyroid cancers. RET alterations also occur in an estimated 1-2% of multiple other cancers, including ovarian, pancreatic, salivary, breast, and colorectal cancers.
RETpositive Empowering Patients and Driving Research
Rearranged during transfection (RET) rearrangements were first identified as oncogenic drivers in NSCLC in 2012. The proportion of patients with NSCLC who have RET rearrangements (ie, fusion-positive disease) is approximately 1%-2%.
RET Fusion-Positive Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: The Evolving Treatment Landscape The Oncologist Oxford Academic (oup.com)
RET alterations occur most commonly in lung cancer (non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)) and the number of new cases diagnosed each year is considerable, accounting for approximately 37,500 [IG1] cases worldwide and 4,000 cases in the US (2% of NSCLC) (2,3). RET alterations are also common in several types of inherited and sporadic thyroid cancers and can occur in other types of cancers like ovarian, breast, pancreatic, and colorectal cancers, among others (4-8) adding >110,000 cases yearly worldwide (9).
What is RET Positive Lung Cancer? - The Happy Lungs Project
(2) Although medullary thyroid carcinoma represents 5-10% of all thyroid cancers, activating RET gene abnormalities occur in over 90% of hereditary and approximately 40%-60% of sporadic medullary thyroid carcinoma cases.
Patients – RETpositive%20Although%20medullary%20thyroid%20carcinoma,sporadic%20medullary%20thyroid%20carcinoma%20cases.)
~Prevalence of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer~
Most lung cancer statistics include both small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In general, about 10% to 15% of all lung cancers are SCLC, and about 80% to 85% are NSCLC.
Lung cancer (both small cell and non-small cell) is the second most common cancer in both men and women in the United States (not counting skin cancer). In men, prostate cancer is more common, while breast cancer is more common in women.
The American Cancer Society’s estimates for lung cancer in the US for 2024 are:
About 234,580 new cases of lung cancer (116,310 in men and 118,270 in women)
About 125,070 deaths from lung cancer (65,790 in men and 59,280 in women)
Lung Cancer Statistics How Common is Lung Cancer? American Cancer Society
Worldwide, an estimated 2,206,771 people were diagnosed with lung cancer in 2020. These statistics include both small cell lung cancer and NSCLC.
Lung Cancer - Non-Small Cell: Statistics Cancer.Net
~Author Calculations/Estimates~
Approximately 187,664 cases of NSCLC in the US based on an 80% factor.
Approximately 1,765,416 cases of NSCLC worldwide based on an 80% factor.
~Prevalence of Thyroid Cancer~
Rate of New Cases and Deaths per 100,000: The rate of new cases of thyroid cancer was 13.5 per 100,000 men and women per year. The death rate was 0.5 per 100,000 men and women per year. These rates are age-adjusted and based on 2017–2021 cases and 2018–2022 deaths.
Lifetime Risk of Developing Cancer: Approximately 1.2 percent of men and women will be diagnosed with thyroid cancer at some point during their lifetime, based on 2017–2019 data. Lifetime risk based on data through 2022 will available soon.
Prevalence of This Cancer: In 2021, there were an estimated 979,295 people living with thyroid cancer in the United States.
Thyroid Cancer — Cancer Stat Facts
About 44,020 new cases of thyroid cancer (12,500 in men and 31,520 in women)
About 2,170 deaths from thyroid cancer (990 in men and 1,180 in women)
Thyroid cancer is often diagnosed at a younger age than most other adult cancers. The average age when a person is diagnosed with thyroid cancer is 51.
This cancer is about 3 times more common in women than in men. It is about 40% to 50% less common in Black people than in any other racial or ethnic group.
Key Statistics for Thyroid Cancer American Cancer Society)
Addressable Market
Given Gavreto’s dual treatment capacity, the total amount of potential patients with NSCLC with RET+ indications would be approximately 2,800 cases in the US and approximately 26,500 cases worldwide each year using a factor of 1.5% of total NSCLC cases. The total amount of treatable cases for Thyroid Cancer would be approximately 650 in the US and 16,500 cases worldwide respectively each year applying the same 1.5% RET+ percentage rate. DOUBLE CHECK MATH…
~Rigel Pharmaceuticals Pipeline~
~IRAK/4 – Clinical Trials~
Rigel’s investigational candidate, R289, is an oral, potent and selective inhibitor of interleukin receptor-associated kinases 1 and 4 (IRAK1/4).
Toll like receptors (TLRs) and the interleukin 1 receptor family (IL-1Rs) play a critical role in the innate immune response and dysregulation of these pathways can lead to a variety of inflammatory conditions such as psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease. Chronic stimulation of both receptor systems has also been implicated in causing a pro-inflammatory bone marrow environment leading to persistent cytopenias in lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (LR-MDS) patients1.
R835 is a selective dual inhibitor of IRAK1/4 that blocks TLR4 and IL-1R-dependent systemic cytokine release. In preclinical studies, R835 demonstrated activity in multiple animal models of inflammatory disease2,3 and showed that dual inhibition of IRAK1 and IRAK4 provided more complete suppression of inflammatory cytokines when compared to an IRAK4-selective inhibitor4.
Development of R289:
In a Phase 1 clinical trial, R835 was well tolerated and inhibited LPS-induced inflammatory cytokine production in healthy volunteers, demonstrating proof-of-mechanism.5 Phase 1 clinical studies of R289 (an oral prodrug that is rapidly converted to R835 in the gut) are also complete.
A Phase 1b open-label, multicenter trial of R289 in patients with relapsed/refractory lower-risk MDS is currently enrolling (NCT05308264). The primary endpoint for this trial is safety with key secondary endpoints including preliminary efficacy and evaluation of pharmacokinetic properties.
~Bemcentinib – Bergenbio Partnership~
In June 2011, Rigel entered into an exclusive, worldwide research, development and commercialization agreement with BerGenBio for its investigational AXL receptor tyrosine kinase (AXL) inhibitor, R428 (now referred to as bemcentinib).
Bemcentinib is a potent, selective and orally bioavailable AXL inhibitor and the furthest along in clinical trials. In preclinical studies, bemcentinib was shown to have an effect as a single agent therapeutic in the prevention and reversal of acquired resistance to standard of care cytotoxics and targeted therapies and may also slow or prevent tumor metastasis.
Rigel received an upfront payment and is eligible for milestone payments and potential sublicensing revenue, as well as tiered royalty payments on any future net sales of products emerging from the collaboration.
~R552 Systemic – Eli Lilly Partnership~
Rigel’s investigational candidates are oral, potent and selective inhibitors of receptor-interacting serine/threonine-protein kinase 1 (RIPK1).
RIPK1 is a critical signaling protein implicated in a broad range of key inflammatory cellular processes including necroptosis, a type of regulated cell death, and cytokine production. In necroptosis, cells rupture leading to the dispersion of cell contents, which can trigger an immune response and enhance inflammation. RIPK1 inhibition has therapeutic potential in treating autoimmune, inflammatory, and neurodegenerative disorders.
Rigel’s RIPK1 inhibitor program includes R552, a systemic molecule being developed for the treatment of autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, and brain penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors for central nervous system (CNS) diseases. In preclinical studies, R552 demonstrated prevention of joint and skin inflammation in a RIPK1-mediated murine model of inflammation and tissue damage.
Development of R552:
In Q2 2023, the initial Phase 2a trial (NCT05848258) in moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was initiated by partner Eli Lilly.
Development CNS-penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors:
Currently in preclinical studies.
~Milademetan – Daiichi Sankyo Partnership~
Rigel has a long-standing collaboration with Daiichi-Sankyo for developing murine double minute 2 (MDM2) protein inhibitors in cancer, which were discovered in Rigel’s laboratories.
Preliminary safety and efficacy data from an early Phase 1 study of milademetan (formerly DS-3032), an oral selective MDM2 inhibitor, in hematological malignancies suggests that it may be a promising potential treatment for oncology indications.
Rigel received an upfront payment and is eligible for milestone payments, as well as tiered royalty payments on any future net sales of any products emerging from the collaboration.
~Rxxx (CNS Penetrant) – Eli Lilly Partnership~
Rigel’s investigational candidates are oral, potent and selective inhibitors of receptor-interacting serine/threonine-protein kinase 1 (RIPK1).
RIPK1 is a critical signaling protein implicated in a broad range of key inflammatory cellular processes including necroptosis, a type of regulated cell death, and cytokine production. In necroptosis, cells rupture leading to the dispersion of cell contents, which can trigger an immune response and enhance inflammation. RIPK1 inhibition has therapeutic potential in treating autoimmune, inflammatory, and neurodegenerative disorders.
Rigel’s RIPK1 inhibitor program includes R552, a systemic molecule being developed for the treatment of autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, and brain penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors for central nervous system (CNS) diseases. In preclinical studies, R552 demonstrated prevention of joint and skin inflammation in a RIPK1-mediated murine model of inflammation and tissue damage.
Development of R552:
In Q2 2023, the initial Phase 2a trial (NCT05848258) in moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was initiated by partner Eli Lilly.
Development CNS-penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors:
Currently in preclinical studies. Pipeline :: Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)
~Summary and Prediction~
The current share price of sub $1 does not feel justified. I would anticipate financial breakeven by the end of 2024 or potentially in Q1 or Q2 of 2025. The robust pipeline, progress, and expected revenue growth are enough to justify a much higher valuation. The debt load is manageable, but the potential for S is concerning. I believe that the S is not necessary and revenue growth and progress should speak for itself. I am not as bullish as the analysts at HC Wainright for a $15 PT, but the valuation should be at least 3x to 5x from the current value. This thesis does not highlight the patents surrounding their drugs either which some extend into 2035 and beyond. Perhaps what Wall Street is discounting is the fact that most of the drugs are very niche. However, the currently available drugs have an addressable market, albeit less universal than some, but you should value it in the sense of multiple facets (a 1000 headed snake is the phrase I wanted to use). I believe the company should be valued with specialty drugs in mind which would command a higher PE ratio. At the current day and time of writing, the value should be at least $1.50 to $1.75 ~at a minimum~ with a 12 month price target of $3 to $5+. I will be looking for continued revenue growth in each quarter this year and realization of revenue from Gavreto in Q2 or Q3 this year. The partnerships should not be discounted either and the current share price if it lingers here perhaps may attract a merger or acquisition. I initially began the research thinking that perhaps the drugs were too niche, but given the multiple drugs they are working with, I believe their revenue sources will continue to grow if you do not focus on one particular drug as the main performer. With the most recent inflation report being cooler than expected, I would suspect larger funds and institutions will be circling back to riskier assets.

the manchester major has been going on for a couple of days and advertised that all pro leagues bundles are 20% off. but there is no sale in the shop and i’ve been hoarding credits for a while for the 2024 bundles does anyone else have a 20% sale on them and it’s jst a ubislop L?

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Hi everyone, I own a Topo Designs 40L Global Travel bag that I use for 1 week or more trips. But I’m in the market for a smaller bag for overnight to 3-5 day trips. I’ve fallen a little in love with the look of the Bellroy Venture Ready 26L and they have the 1st gen on sale in Navy for $155 (2nd gen is $259 and the only difference is a luggage pass through that I won’t use and an AirTag hidden pocket. I found no other discernible differences in structure size or function).
For context, I do tend to overpack a bit (but I’m working on it, lol) and mainly only travel to warm weather places.
A sample of what my current 3-5 day list looks like:
Wear on plane: Patagonia Capilene Cool Daily Tee, Public Rec Flex shorts, Bombas No Show merino socks, Adidas Climacool mesh boxers, Adidas tank undershirt, Ridge Merino Solstice sun hoodie, Kizik Athens, Mission baseball cap.
Need to pack:
2 Patagonia Capilene Cool Daily tees, 2 Public Rec Go To tee, 1 Public Rec Elevate tee, 1 Public Rec Go To polo shirt.
1 Public Rec Flex shorts, 1 Patagonia Stretch Wavefarer shorts, 1 Western Rise Evo shorts, 1 Western Rise Evo 2.0 pants, 1 Arctic Cool mesh shorts. The Flex and Wavefarer shorts double as swimsuits, and the mesh shorts would just be pajama/lounge shorts.
Fairly certain I can get the tops and bottoms in my 11x11 compression packing cube.
5 Adidas Climacool mesh boxer briefs, 3 Adidas tank undershirts, 3 Bombas No Show merino socks, 2 Mission baseball caps. I always wear a hat and these pack rather easily as they’re unstructured. Also, I wear mesh boxers as a liner while swimming in hybrid shorts so I take more than the number of days.
The underwear, socks and hats should all fit in my 11x7.5 compression packing cubes.
So those two cubes stacked on top of one another are 18.5” in height and 11” in width. The Bellroy is 19.6” tall and 13” wide, so should be good there.
Other things I need to fit in the main bucket compartment would be my Olukai Ohana’s (size 11th pack pretty thin), Matador Refraction Packable Sling (2.5x7x2” would probably go in the clamshell slash pocket), and my 10x7x3” hanging toiletry kit (which may fit in the larger mesh pocket on the clamshell).
My iPad Air 11” would go in the laptop pocket in its keyboard case and my Kindle would go in the tablet pocket.
I would use the top outside tech pocket for my 3-in-1 MagSafe charger, AirPod Pro 2’s, 2 USB-C cables, dual plug brick, and my Nitecore 10k battery pack.
The hidden side stash pocket is where my clear liquids bag would go. And then a 21oz Hydroflask in the water bottle pocket.
I would attach my Matador speed stash for my iPhone and sunglasses.
https://bellroy.com/products/venture-ready-pack?color=nightsky&material=baida_ripstop&size=26l
So two questions…do you think this is all possible to fit in the Bellroy and do any of you own one who can give me an actual unpaid for review?
Thanks for any help, advice, opinions or sarcastic comments!

I love running my family through the old 1E Tales of the Outer Planes. It's the first D&D book I ever purchased, so the nostalgia is great, but some parts need more than just a stat update. Some need to be completely gutted and rewritten. Case in point: The Castle at the Edge of Time, an adventure for low-level PC's in the Deep Ethereal.
SUMMARY
Centuries ago, the legendary Sapphire Mage Aionias and his apprentice Montgomery built a castle in the Ethereal, near a color curtain to the Demiplane of Time. In this way, they could conduct experiments without interruption and warn unwary travelers away from the dangerous demiplane. Eventually, Aionias pronounced Montgomery's training complete, departed beyond the veil of Time, and hasn't been seen since. Montgomery assumed the mantle of the Sapphire Mage and continued his mentor's investigations.
Recently, the castle and the curtain have begun drifting towards each other, necessitating a change of address. The Sapphire Mage has decided that the city of Arabel would make an ideal headquarters and has offered a considerable sum for it. The party is sent as bodyguards of the mayor's envoy Lady Cheodot to decline as diplomatically as possible.
But Cheodot is secretly working for the The Zhentarim, and begins negotiations for the sale, hoping the Mage will enforce his condition that Arabel's citizenry be removed. It is up to the party to convince the Mage to withdraw his offer, simultaneously protecting him from Cheodot's treachery and increasingly murderous intrigues.
TAKEAWAYS
I love this setting, I love the focus on diplomacy (this adventure actually introduces the idea of a diplomacy 'proficiency'!) but the central plot engine of a well-meaning archmage asking a capital city to just up and move their populace is just psychotic. It's only exacerbated by having the negotiations take place alone in the castle, so that when "someone" alters the Mage's summoning circle in an attempt to kill him, the suspect list is exactly two people, one of whom has been acting extremely sketchy.
Once I realized a rewrite is in order, I knew I wanted a LOT of diplomats, with a full murder mystery among them. I like homages, it's practically a private game with me to keep as much of the original material as possible, so I'll probably keep Lady Cheodot and the Zhentarim as the villains. My oldest son's PC is a skilled diplomat (Order of the eel cavalier) so I'll have one of the parties tap him as their representative.
Other things I might want to keep:
• Ether golems - ten of them, color coded for convenience, one of them is a passable cook, but WHAT ARE THEY??
• Aionias' return - he's apparently some kind of human-shaped "hole in the ether"? Mute? No stats, all pathos? Portent of warning?
• Jacktooth - a battered short sword from a previous adventure that awakens to a powerful enchantment on the Ethereal plane, because...sure.
• The Castle - Needs a map, badly. And if Monty earned the name Sapphire Mage a century ago, why are Aionias' rooms still off limits?
• The Sapphire Mage: supposedly an important title that we've never heard of before or since. Since the color curtain is silver and pearl, the title has nothing to do with that. Maybe there should be a sapphire artifact that they attune to?
• Death by Sabotage: I like the idea of Cheodot using acid to ruin a summoning circle, leading to combat with summoned creatures.
Things I want to add:
• Chronomancy connection: this is way before the chronomancy book, so it can't be faulted, but the Sapphire Mage is obviously a chronomancer role.
• Context: there ought to be references to how others have exploited chronomancy recently, especially Vecna. For their own time travel, someone might direct the PC's to the tomb of Chronos.
• Variety: the other diplomats and visitors should include sphinxes, spellweavers, mercane, devils, modrons, time dragons, royal dimensionals, geniekind, etc.
• Suspects: the Ravenloft netbook adventure Feasting With Falcons did it best. It's really my go-to for how to do a murder mystery.
Most of all, I need something for them to debate about, but I have only the basic shape for that. Something that would draw lots of factions together, and get them debating hotly enough to create logical suspects when someone dies. My youngest boy is playing a machinesmith, and the EULA I created for one of his magi-techno devices mentions the authority of "Astral Sea, the Rock of Bral, the City at the Edge of Time, the Shadow Proclamation, The City of Doors, the Midnight Market," so I'd love to see the formation of a City at the Edge of Time as a result of these negotiations.
Finally...the Chronomancy manual says there IS no Demiplane of Time, and that previous references to it were mistaken. So, if that's the case, what IS this place with the pearl-and-silver curtain, and why would it be mistaken for a Demiplane of Time? Whatever it is, could it be a resource that could be shared by a variety of factions, necessitating the creation of a city? If some part of Aionias returns as in the original, could he work with his apprentice to create a bulwark against the expanding curtain, to protect the incipient City?

Im thinking ig buying a samsung laptop but not sure which one to get, right now i can getvthe 16 inch galaxy book 3 pro for about $1350 after tax and I can get the 14 inch galaxy book pro 4 for about $2200 which is a big price difference, Im thinking of waiting for the book 4 pro to go on sale i missed the mother's day sale where i could've gitten it for about $1490 again after tax and shipping, is it worth spending the extra for the book 4 pro or just get the book 3 pro?

I'm badly overweight around my midsection/abdomen. When I was in my 20s/early 30s I was maybe 180-185. It's all in the belly. I don't drink alcohol at all. For over a year I've used the on-knees ab-roller Ab Carver Pro 3 times a week, 100 going straight out reps, and 25 off to the side on the obliques, 25 to each side. I don't overeat or have massive portions. I've continually tried to improve my diet but if anything over the past year I've put on even more weight in the midsection/abdomen. So what I'm doing isn't working. I don't really have time to join a gym and prefer to exercise in private. I plan to continue making changes to my diet but need advice in terms of a different piece or type of equipment or exercise I should be doing to see actual results. Do I need to up from 3 times a week? What about nutrition? My diet still isn't the greatest and I know I still need to make changes. I'm at genetic risk for a bunch of bad stuff including Type 2 diabetes and nearing the age when my late father started to put on massive midsection weight so it's pretty serious I slim down ASAP.

AI has long been discussed in rationalist circles. There’s been a lot of focus on risks from artificial intelligence (particularly the idea that it might cause human extinction), but also the idea that artificial general intelligence might happen quite soon and subsequently transform society (e.g. supercharging economic growth in a technological singularity).
I’ve long found these arguments intriguing, and probably underrated by the public as a whole. I definitely don’t align myself with people like Steven Pinker who dismiss AI concerns entirely.
Nonetheless, I’ve noticed increasingly high confidence in beliefs of near-term transformative AI among rationalists. To be fair, it’s reasonable to update somewhat given recent advances like GPT-4. But among many, there is a belief that AI advances are the single most important thing happening right now. And among a minority, there are people with very extreme beliefs - such as quite high confidence that transformative AI is just a few years away, and/or that AI is very likely to kill us all.
My core arguments in this post are that firstly, from an “epistemic humility” or “outside view” perspective, we should be suspicious of confident views that the world is soon going to end (or change radically).
Secondly, the implications of the most radical views could cause people who hold them to inflict significant harm on themselves or others.

Who Believes In “AI Imminence”?

The single person I am most specifically critiquing is Eliezer Yudkowsky. Yudkowsky appears unwilling to give specific probabilities but writings like “Death With Dignity” has caused many including Scott Alexander to characterise him as believing that AI has a >90% chance of causing human extinction)
As a very prominent and very “doomy” rationalist, I worry that he may have convinced a fair number of people to share similar views, views which if taken seriously could hold its holders to feel depressed and/or make costly irrevocable decisions.
But though I think Yudkowsky deserves the most scrutiny, I don’t want to focus entirely on him.
Take Scott Alexander - he frames himself in the aforementioned link as “not as much of a doomer as some people”, yet gave a 33% probability (later adjusted downwards as a result of outside view considerations like those I raise in here) to “only” ~20%. While this leaves enough room for hope that it’s not as potentially dangerous a view as Yudkowsky’s, I agree with how the top Reddit comment in the original post said:

Is AI risk the only field where someone can write an article about how they’re not (much) of a doomer when they think that the risk of catastrophe/disasteextinction is 33%?

Beyond merely AI risk, claims about “transformative AI” date back to ideas about the “intelligent explosion” or “singularity” that are most popularly associated with Ray Kurzweil. A modern representation of this is Tom Davidson of Open Philanthropy, who wrote a report on takeoff speeds.
Other examples can be seen in (pseudo-)prediction markets popular with rationalists, such as Metaculus putting the median date of AGI at 2032, and Manifold Markets having a 17% chance of AI doom by 2100 (down from its peak of around 50% (!) in mid-2023).

Why Am I Sceptical?

My primary case for (moderate) scepticism is not about the object-level arguments around AI, but appealing to the “outside view”. My main arguments are:

• Superforecasters and financial markets are not giving high credence to transformative AI. Both groups have good track records, so we should strongly consider deferring to their views.
  
• The transformative AI argument is "fishy" (to borrow Will MacAskill’s argument against “The Most Important Century”). It implies that not only we are at an unusually pivotal time in history (perhaps the most important decade, let alone century), but that consequently, rationalists are perhaps the most important prophets in history. When your claims are that extraordinary, it seems much more likely that they're mistaken.
  
• The “inside view” arguments do not seem very robust to me. That is, they are highly speculative arguments that are primarily discussed among an insular group of people in usually relatively informal settings. I think you should be wary of any argument that emerges via this process, even if you can’t point to any specific way in which they are wrong.
  

Why I’m Against Highly Immodest Epistemology

However, maybe appealing to the “outside view” is incorrect? Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote a book, Inadequate Equiibria, which in large part argued against what he saw as excessive use of the “outside view”. He advises:

Try to spend most of your time thinking about the object level. If you’re spending more of your time thinking about your own reasoning ability and competence than you spend thinking about Japan’s interest rates and NGDP, or competing omega-6 vs. omega-3 metabolic pathways, you’re taking your eye off the ball.

I think Yudkowsky makes a fair point about being excessively modest. If you are forever doubting your own reasoning to the extent that you think you should defer to the majority of Americans who are creationists, you’ve gone too far.
But I think his case is increasingly weak the more radically immodest your views here. I’ll explain with the following analogy:
Suppose you were talking to someone who was highly confident in their new business idea. What is an appropriate use of a “modesty” argument cautioning against overconfidence?
A strong-form modesty argument would go something like “No new business idea could work, because if it could, someone would already have done it”. This is refuted by countless real-world examples, and I don’t think anyone actually believes in strong-form modesty.
A moderate-form modesty argument would go something like “Some new business ideas work, but most fail, even when their founders were quite confident in them. As an aspiring entrepreneur, you should think your chances of success in your new venture are similar to those of the reference class of aspiring entrepreneurs”.
The arguments against epistemic modesty in Inadequate Equilibria are mainly targeted against reasoning like this. And I think here there’s a case where we can have reasonable disagreement about the appropriate level of modesty. You may have some good reasons to believe that your idea is unusually good or that you are unusually likely to succeed as an entrepreneur. (Though a caveat: with too many degrees of freedom, I think you run the risk of leading yourself to whatever conclusion you like).
For the weak-form modesty argument, let’s further specify that your aspiring entrepreneur’s claim was “I’m over 90% confident that my business will make me the richest person in the world”.
To such a person, I would say: “Your claim is so incredibly unlikely a priori and so self-aggrandising that I feel comfortable in saying you’re overconfident without even needing to consider your arguments”.
That is basically what I feel about Eliezer Yudwosky and AI.
Let’s take a minute to consider what the implications are if Yudkowsky is correctly calibrated about his beliefs in AI. For a long time, he was one of the few people in the world to be seriously concerned about it, and even now, with many more people concerned about AI risk, he stands out as having some of the highest confidence in doom.
If he’s right, then he’s arguably the most important prophet in history. Countless people throughout history have tried forecasting boon or bust (and almost always been wrong). But on arguably the most important question in human history - when we will go extinct and why - Yudkowsky was among the very few people to see it and easily the most forceful.
Indeed, I’d say this is a much more immodest claim than claiming your business idea will make you the richest person in the world. The title of the richest person in the world has been shared by numerous people throughout history, but “the most accurate prophet of human extinction” is a title that can only ever be held by one person.
I think Scott Alexander’s essay Epistemic Learned Helplessness teaches a good lesson here. Argument convincingness isn’t necessarily strongly correlated with the truth of a claim. If someone gives you what appears to be a strong argument for something that appears crazy, you should nonetheless remain highly sceptical.
Yet I feel like Yudkowsky wants to appeal to “argument convincingness” because that’s what he’s good at. He has spent decades honing his skills arguing on the internet, and much less at acquiring traditional credentials and prestige. “Thinking on the object level” sounds like it’s about being serious and truth-seeking, but I think in practice it’s about privileging convincing-sounding arguments and being a good internet debater above all other evidence.
A further concern I have about “argument convincingness” for AI is that there’s almost certainly a large “motivation gap” in favour of the production of pro-AI-risk arguments compared to anti-AI-risk arguments, with the worriers spending considerably more time and effort than the detractors. As Philip Trammel points out in his post “But Have They Engaged with The Arguments?, this is true of almost any relatively fringe position. This can make the apparent balance of “argumentative evidence” misleading in those cases, with AI no exception.
Finally, Yudkowsky’s case for immodesty depends partly on alleging he has a good track record of applying immodesty to “beat the experts”. But his main examples (a lightbox experiment and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan) I don’t find that impressive given he could cherry-pick. Here’s an article alleging that Yudkowsky’s predictions have frequently between egregiously wrong and here’s another arguing that his Bank of Japan position in particular didn’t ultimately pan out.

Why I’m Also Sceptical of Moderately Immodest Epistemology

I think high-confidence predictions of doom (or utopia) are much more problematic than relatively moderate views - they are more likely to be wrong, and if taken seriously, more strongly imply that the believer should consider making radical, probably harmful life changes.
But I do still worry that the ability to contrast with super confident people like Yudkowsky lets the “not a total doomer” people off the hook a little too easily. I think it’s admirable that Scott Alexander seriously grappled with the fact that superforecasters disagreed with him and updated downwards based on that observation.
Still, let’s revisit the “aspiring entrepreneur” analogy - imagine they had instead said: “You know what, I’ve listened to your claims about modesty and agree that I’ve been overconfident. I now think there’s only a 20% chance that my business idea will make me the richest person in the world”.
Sure - they’ve moved in the right direction, but it’s easy to see that they’re still not doing modesty very well.
An anti-anti-AI risk argument Scott made (in MR Tries the Safe Uncertainly Fallacy) is that appealing to base rates leaves you vulnerable to “reference class tennis” where both sides can appeal to different reference classes, and the “only winning move is not to play”.
Yet in the case of our aspiring entrepreneur, I think the base rate argument of “extremely few people can become the richest person in the world” is very robust. If the entrepreneur tried to counter with “But I can come up with all sorts of other reference classes in which I come out more favourably! Reference class tennis! Engage with my object-level arguments!”, it would not be reasonable to throw up your hands and say “Well, I can’t come up with good counterarguments, so I guess you probably do have a 20% chance of becoming the richest person in the world then”.
I contend that “many people have predicted the end of the world and they’ve all been wrong” is another highly robust reference class. Yes, you can protest about “anthropic effects” or reasons why “this time is different”. And maybe the reasons why “this time is different” are indeed a lot better than usual. Still, I contend that you should start from a prior of overwhelming skepticism and only make small updates based on arguments you read. You should not go “I read these essays with convincing arguments about how we’re all going to die, I guess I just believe that now”.

What Should We Make Of Surveys Of AI Experts?

Surveys done of AI experts, as well as opinions of well-regarded experts like Geoffrey Hinton and Stewart Russell, have shown significant concerns about AI risk (example).
I think this is good evidence for taking AI risk seriously. One important thing it does is raise AI risk out of the reference class of garden-variety doomsday predictions/crazy-sounding theories that have no expert backing.
However, I think it’s still only moderately good evidence.
Firstly, I think we should not consider it as an “expert consensus” nearly as strong as say, the expert consensus on climate change. There is nothing like an IPCC for AI, for example. This is not a mature, academically rigorous field. I don’t think we should update too strongly from AI experts spending a few minutes filling in a survey. (See for instance this comment about the survey, showing how non-robust the answers given are, indicating the responders aren’t thinking super hard about the questions).
Secondly, I believe forecasting AI risk is a multi-disciplinary skill. Consider for instance asking physicists to predict the chances of human extinction due to nuclear war in the 1930s. They would have an advantage in predicting nuclear capabilities, but after nuclear weapons were developed, the reasons we haven’t had a nuclear war yet have much more to do with international relations than nuclear physics.
And maybe AGI is so radically different from the AI that exists today that perhaps asking AI researchers now about AI risk might have been like asking 19th-century musket manufacturers about the risk from a hypothetical future “super weapon”.
I think an instructive analogy were the failed neo-Malthusian predictions of the 1960s and 1970s, such as The Population Bomb or The Limits to Growth. Although I’m unable to find clear evidence of this, my impression is that these beliefs were quite mainstream among the most “obvious” expert class of biologists (The Population Bomb author Paul Ehlrich had a PhD in biology), and the primary critics tended to be in other fields like economics (most notably Julian Simon). Biologists had insights, but they also had blind spots. Any “expert survey” that only interviewed biologists would have missed crucial insights from other disciplines.

What Are The Potential Consequences Of Overconfidence?

People have overconfident beliefs all the time. Some people erroneously thought Hillary Clinton was ~99% likely to win the 2016 Presidential election. Does it matter that much if they’re overconfident about AI?
Well, suppose you were overconfident about Clinton. You probably didn’t do anything differently in your life, and the only real cost of your overconfidence was being unusually surprised on election day 2016. Even one of the people who was that confident in Clinton didn’t suffer any worse consequences than eating a bug on national television.
But take someone who is ~90% confident that AI will radically transform or destroy society (“singularity or extinction by 2040") and seriously acts like it.
Given that, it seems apparently reasonable to be much more short-term focused. You might choose to stop saving for retirement. You might forgo education on the basis that it will be obsolete soon. These are actions that some people have previously taken, are considering taking or are actually taking because of expectations of AI progress.
At a societal level, high confidence in short-term transformative AI implies that almost all non-AI related long-term planning that humanity does is probably a waste. The most notable example would be climate change. If AI either kills us or radically speeds up scientific and economic growth by the middle of the century, then it seems pretty stupid to be worrying about climate change. Indeed, we’re probably underconsuming fossil fuels that could be used to improve the lives of people right now.
At its worst, there is the possibility of AI-risk-motivated terrorism. Here’s a twitter thread from Emil Torres talking about this, noticeably this tweet in particular about minutes from an AI safety workshop “sending bombs” to OpenAI and DeepMind.
To be fair, I think it’s highly likely the people writing that were trolling. Still - if you’re a cold-blooded utilitarian bullet-biter with short timelines and high p(doom), I could easily see you rationalising such actions.
I want to be super careful about this - I don’t want to come across as claiming that terrorism is a particularly likely consequence of “AI dooming”, nor do I want to risk raising the probability of it by discussing it too much and planting the seed of it in someone’s head. But a community that takes small risks seriously should be cognizant of the possibility. This is a concern that I think anyone with a large audience and relatively extreme views (about AI or anything) should take into account.

Conclusion

This post has been kicking around in draft form since around the release of GPT-4 a year ago. At that time, there were a lot of breathless takes on Twitter about how AGI was just around the corner, Yudkowsy was appearing on a lot of podcasts saying we were all going to die, and I started to feel like lots of people had gone a bit far off on the deep end.
Since then I feel there’s a little bit of a vibe shift away from the most extreme scenarios (as exhibited in the Manifold extinction markets), as well as me personally probably overestimating how many people ever believed in them. I’ve found it hard to try to properly articulate the message: “You’re probably directionally correct relative to society as a whole, but some unspecified number of you have probably gone too far”.
Nonetheless, my main takeaways are:

• Eliezer Yudkowsky (these days) is probably causing harm, and people with moderate concerns about AI should distance themselves from him. Espousing views that we are all likely to die from AI should not be tolerated as a merely strong opinion, but as something that can cause meaningful harm to people who believe it. I feel this might actually be happening to some degree (I think it’s notable that e.g. the 80,000 Hours podcast has never interviewed him, despite interviewing plenty of other AI-risk-concerned people). But I would like to see more of a “Sister Souljah moment” where e.g. a prominent EA thought leader explicitly disavows him.
  
• Yudkowsky being the worst offender doesn't let everyone else off the hook. For instance, I think Scott Alexander is much better at taking modesty seriously, yet I don't think he takes it seriously enough.
  
• We should be generally suspicious of arguments for crazy-sounding things. I have not only become more suspicious of arguments about AI, but also other arguments relatively popular in rationalist or EA circles, but not so much outside it (think certain types of utilitarian arguments that imply that e.g. maybe insect welfare or the long-term future outweighs everything else). I appreciate that they might say something worth considering, and perhaps weak-form versions of them could be reasonable. But the heuristic of “You probably haven’t found the single most important thing ever” is something I think should be given more weight.
  

Hello again to Anthony's post-college sale. These are all new items! We start off with a scarce sycee from Yunnan Province and a more diminutive type (ex. Stephen Album), and two graded, VF 35 Fatman Dollars, including a Weak O type. These were all freshly graded. Another freshly graded PCGS coin is a XF 45 and golden toned Memento Dollar that I submitted raw. The raw coins are a Memento Dollar (AU Toned, old cleaning), a lot of 8 1/4 Yangs, a lustrous AU Yunnan 50 Cents, and a ink chopmarked with 香 HK 10 Cents. We also have two scarce 10 Cash, one of which is a well detailed Yunnan Szechuan 10 Cash--an elusive, two province type! We also have a ex. Daniel K.E. Ching 5 Cash, which is a rare denomination. Kraft envelope is included.
To be transparent, I have been trying to get some more Chinese and Annamnese (Vietnamnese) coins in the near future, so I have to offload some of my stuff to get towards my collecting goals.
Thank you all! I hope you all can enjoy these coins from my personal collection!
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/fjhgRG8
Please Private Message (and not DM) me to order. Also, be sure to put a comment on this post with a "PM" so that I can respond to it before and after the trade is verified.

• In terms of payment, I accept the following: Zelle (Preferred), PPFF (No Notes), Venmo, Cashapp.
• Once you place an order, please provide the following pieces of information for me: Name , Email , Shipping Address , Method of Payment.
• I will then send you an invoice from my email inbox to yours.
• In terms of shipping, I will ship each order with free, USPS Ground Advantage tracked shipping in a padded envelope, unless stated otherwise. For international orders, including Canada and UK, shipping is not included, and I will quote the actual rate via PirateShip. My handling time is 1(aka, the next business day) to, at most, 3 days. I always like to stay in touch with you all via email!

INVENTORY - Guaranteed GENUINE and Two are Certified:
LOTS
Lot 1: Lot of 8 pieces - aEF Korea 1/4 Yangs from 1898 (Kwangmu Year 2)

• Bought from an old collection in bulk. Nice patina, and circulated. Generally crude strikes on these copper nickel issues.
• I have unattributed them to any varieties. Good value for the money! :D
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/fVmbjyx
• Price: 65 40 shipped for the lot.

Lot 2: 1905 China Empire 5 Cash - Ex. Scott Semans ex. Daniel K.E. Ching

• Fine+, rare denomination from 1905 (cyclical date 乙巳) - first year of the TCTK Copper Coin system.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/9urcw69
• Price: 12 shipped

Lot 3: 1906 10 Cash - Yunnan Szechuan (川滇) - double mintmark. Graded XF Cleaned by PCGS. Much details and original color, old cleaning and retoning.

• A very scarce denomination from this one year of issue: 丙午 = 1906 for this 10 cash type. There is also a 20 cash type.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/YrjGlVb
• PCGS Cert and Trueviews: https://www.pcgs.com/cert/48945705
• Price: 30 shipped

Lot 4: Yunnan Sycee (snail sycee) or yuansi with high purity silver; late qing and early republic （清末民初）. used for daily transactions and even the opium trade!

• A more uncommon sycee type weighing more than a tael (slightly) at 39.3 grams.
• Usual whorls on the top to indicate high silver fineness, aka the ripples. Nice and remaining luster present.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/ZphQAil
• Price: 70 shipped

Lot 5: Sinkiang Hammered 5 Fen Tanga - RARE YARKAND TYPE - ex. Stephen Album Rare Coins - high silver fineness, nicely toned. Graded PCGS XF Environmental Damage

• A very nice piece and well centered in strike, the ED is usual for these types and this is a nice piece in an as struck condition.
• Guangxu Yinqian Type (guangxu silver coin) and undated, but approximated to be 1878.
• Yarkand or Yarkant Mint. Zarb left and mint name in Arabic to the right, lovely strike.
• Krause YA7.15 and Lin and Ma 665
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/mOWXvWV
• PCGS Cert and Trueviews: https://www.pcgs.com/cert/42761456
• Price: 60 shipped

Lot 6: SMALL and Diminutive Yunnan Sycee (snail sycee) or yuansi with high purity silver; late qing and early republic （清末民初）. used for daily transactions and even the opium trade! This is a 1/4 Tae type at 9.8 grams or so. Much more uncommon and smaller variety.

• ex. Stephen Album Rare Coins Auction 39. Lot 1106.
• Usual whorls on the top to indicate high silver fineness, aka the ripples. Nice and remaining luster present.
• Nice old time collection patina.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/GErfzos
• Price: 60 shipped

Lot 7: Raw and Circy 1896 Hong Kong 10 Cents with RARE Ink Chopmark 香 = Hong in Hong Kong. A more uncommon sycee type weighing more than a tael (slightly) at 39.3 grams.

• Grades about VF to low EF, with nice circy patina. Krause KM 6.3.
• Special 香 ink chopmark. Perhaps from a merchant or private stamp.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/WJFRXFY
• Price: 12 shipped

Lot 8: TWO Pieces of Sinkiang Woodblock Printed and SCARCE Khotan 3 Taels Banknotes - Year 25 , plenty of original color

• Sinkiang Khotan District 3 Taels note (yr. 24) 1935 in the Gregorian calendar.
• As made and in nice condition, from an old American collection. Nice color and ink remaining.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/QHuWw7g
• Price for the pair: 50 shipped

Lot 9: AU - Lustrous and slight toned Yunnan 50 Cents - early and high fineness 2 circles under pearl variety. A great starter for the Chinese struck silver collection. Minted at the Kunming Mint

• Grades low AU, larger sized type.
• Better condition for a raw coin compared to circulated examples.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/vTVhJVX
• Price: 30 shipped

Lot 10: AU, TONED and Lustrous 1927 Memento - Old cleaning on obverse - Rare DDO!

• Classic Chinese crown with the bust of Dr. Sun Yat Sen; scarce DDO variety as we see doubling on the circles around the bust.
• Appealing, old cabinet toning, brought 3 or so years ago.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/BjIHRH6
• Price: 90 shipped

Lot 11: NICELY TONED (golden patina) PCGS XF 45 Memento Dollar Nanking (Nanjing) Mint Variety

• Fresh from grading and graded PCGS XF 45.
• Nice residual and cartwheel luster on both sides, nice details, and interesting planchet dip on the obverse side (not a chopmark!)
• Nice eye appeal compared to other XF 45s.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/GKkm6At
• PCGS Cert and TrueView: https://www.pcgs.com/cert/49511201
• Price: 140 shipped

Lot 12: NGC XF 45 BN - scarce Empire 20 Cash with 5 Waves under, central Hu Poo (Tientsin Mint) Issue - large head dragon

• Sharply struck 20 cash, a more uncommon denomination compared to a 10 cash.
• 1909 with dated cyclical date of 己酉.
• Problem free, chocolate patina.
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/ndzA4ou
• NGC Certification: https://www.ngccoin.com/certlookup/2874016-006/45/
• Price: 30 shipped

Lot 13: Circy and Problem Free Fatman Dollar - 1914 (Yuan DISCONNECTED) = Tientsin Type. PCGS VF 35

• A classic Yuan Shikai fatman dollar with nice and even circulated patina, problem free with nice details evident, as shown with the wreath side; epaulets are worn, as usual for this circulated piece.
• Freshly graded and sent in raw by me! Hard to come by problem free examples these days!
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/DqX1K33
• PCGS Images and Cert: https://www.pcgs.com/cert/49511199
• Price: 145 Shipped

Lot 14: RARE and ELUSIVE Triangle YUAN + Weak O Fatman Dollar - a variety that is hard to come by. PCGS VF 35

• Seldom seen "Weak O" variety. Nice details remaining and circulated as usual.
• There is the "O" mintmark right at the bottom left of the wreath! It can be seen!
• Straight graded by PCGS; the O is rather weak compared to other strong circlet O types, but this is actually rarer. A transitional type! Not minted, as usual, at the Tientsin Mint.
• Freshly graded by me with the same sub as the XF 45 Memento and the lot above!
• Images: https://imgur.com/a/2IxsCfx
• PCGS Images and Cert: https://www.pcgs.com/cert/49511200
• Price: 185 Shipped

Sensor of my SS Rival 100 finally died after like 7 years so I bought Rival 5 on sale. It forces on me using palm grip, because of its size. Bought Endgame OP1, love lightness. After 2 months I noticed that it is too narrow and requires me to use more force of my ring finger to hold it which tires me while gaming. I have seen some people recommend Endgame XM2we, but in my country it is priced for equivalent of 100$ so I'm not really keen on paying this much. I also found Logitech G PRO X Superlight for like 3$ more. I don't like wireless peripheral devices, but if the mouse is good, I might reconsider. So my quiestion is - is there something cheaper wired or should I choose XM2we or G PRO X or different recommendation? Claw grip 19x11cm Edit: Found new Logitech G PRO X Superlight even cheaper than XM2we. It's like 90USD for Logitech and 100$ XM2we.

If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641
ASSESSMENTS I CAN COMPLETE:

• Online Courses (1 - 20 Weeks Long)
• Homework Assignments
• Exams Quizzes Tests
• Excel Projects
• Discussion Forum Posts
• Research Papers Term Papers Essays
• Employment Assessments

MY MATH SUBJECTS OF EXPERTISE:
I am very knowledgeable and proficient in assisting students in a wide range of mathematics classes. I can help students complete their homework assignments and other projects get an A on quizzes, tests, and exams (including proctored assessments) answer online discussion posts write essays & papers in MLA APA Chicago format and provide general overall academic help in each math course listed below:

• Advanced Placement Honors High School Level Math
• AP Calculus AB A.P. Calculus BC
• AP Statistics
• Biostatistics Bio-Statistics
• College Algebra Intermediate Algebra
• Business Calculus
• Business Statistics
• Business Math
• Calculus I Calculus II Calculus III (Calc)
• Geometry
• International Baccalaureate (IB) Maths
• Liberal Arts Math
• Logic & Reasoning
• Multivariable Calculus Multi variable Calculus
• Precalculus Pre-calculus
• Probability & Statistics
• Psychology Statistics Psych Stats
• Quantitative Reasoning Quantitative Methods Quantitative Literacy (Quant)
• Statistics (Stats)
• Statistics for Social Sciences
• Trigonometry (Trig)

STATISTICS HELP (MY BEST SUBJECT):

• I have a master's degree in Applied Statistics from a university in New Jersey, USA. As a result, I am very proficient in helping students with various types of Statistics courses including Biostatistics Business Statistics Elementary Statistics Probability & Statistics Psychology Statistics.
• I have extensive knowledge and skill with helping students get through various statistical concepts including all of the following in alphabetical order:
• ANOVA Bar Graph, Boxplot, Dot Plot, Histogram, Pie Chart Bias Binomial, Exponential, Poisson, Gamma, Uniform Distribution Central Limit Theorem Chi-Square Test Coefficient of Determination (R^2) Conditional & Relative Probability Confidence Interval Correlation Coefficient (r) Critical Region Critical Value Descriptive & Inferential Statistics Effect Size Expected Value Experiment vs Observation Goodness of Fit Test Hypothesis Testing Interpolation & Extrapolation Interquartile Range (IQR) Kurtosis Left, Negative, Right, Positive Skewed Distribution Logistic Regression Mean, Median, Mode, Midrange Multiple Regression Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio I Population Parameter Normal, Symmetric & Bell Shaped Distribution Null & Alternate Hypothesis One & Two Sample T-Test One & Two Sample Z-Test Ordinary Least Squares Outliers P-Value Pooled Variance (Equal Variances) Proportion R^2 Range Regression Regression Line Reject & Fail to Reject Ho Relative & Cumulative Frequency Distributions Relativity & Reliability Right, Left, One, Two Tailed Tailed Hypothesis Test Sample Statistics Sampling Methods (Convenience, Stratified, Simple, Cluster, Systematic) Significance Level (1%, 5%, 10%) Skewness Standard Deviation& Variance T-Score Test Statistic Time Series Type I & Type II Errors Unbiased Estimators Z-Score

ALGEBRA HELP:

• I am well-versed in helping students do well in Algebra 1 & 2 College Algebra Intermediate Algebra Pre-Algebra and I am very knowledgeable and proficient in the following algebra topics in alphabetical order:
• Absolute Values Circle Equation Domain Exponents Graphing Horizontal & Vertical Asymptotes Inequalities, Equations & Functions Inverse Functions Linear, Exponential, Logarithmic, Quadratic Equations Logarithms Maximum & Minimum Values of a Graph Number Lines One-to-One Functions Parallel & Perpendicular Lines Plotting Points & Ordered Pairs Point-Slope Form Polynomial Division Polynomials Radicals Range Rational & Irrational Expressions Rational Functions Real Roots Real Zeros Relations & Functions Slope Slope-Intercept Form Square Roots Standard Form of a Line System of Equations System of Inequalities Variables X and Y Intercepts

CALCULUS HELP:

• I am well-versed in helping students do well in Calculus I, II & III, Calculus 1, 2 & 3, Business Calculus, Multivariable Calculus, Vector Calculus and I am very knowledgeable and proficient in the following calculus topics in alphabetical order:
• Absolute & Local Maximum and Minimum Antiderivative Area & Volume Chain Rule Concavity Continuity Convergence Test Critical Points Curvature Curve of Rotation Curve Sketching Derivatives Divergence Test First & Second Derivative Test Fourier Series Implicit Differentiation Increasing / Decreasing Functions Infinite Series Integrals Integration by Parts Jacobian Matrix Limits L’Hopital’s Rule Maclaurin Series Mean Value Theorem Partial Derivative Product & Quotient Rule Reiman Sum Related Rates Simpson’s Rule Solid of Revolution Substitution Rule Taylor Series

Paid Help from Hiraedu: If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641
ATTRIBUTES THAT SET ME APART FROM OTHER TUTORS:

• I firmly believe that I have many attributes and skills that set me apart from other tutors. Below is a list of qualities that makes me an ideal fit to help you master your coursework:

I CAN AID STUDENTS TAKING PROCTORED ASSESSMENTS:

• Proficient in CollegeBoard AP Calculus AB, AP Calculus BC & AP Statistics exams.
• Skilled with International Baccalaureate Math Exams: IB Maths HL & IB Maths SL
• Can intentionally answer a few problems incorrectly at the student's request.
• Can text solutions to the student while they are taking a proctored exam.
• Upon request, can purposely obtain grades below an A (ex: B+, B, C+, C-).
• I can stretch out the time to a plausible length for timed exams and assignments before submitting them.
• Have reliable software that can change my IP address to match the closest major city near the student.
• I have exceptional multiple-choice exam-taking skills. I have mastered the various techniques to make calculated guesses for the correct option in standardized exams such as the SAT & GRE.

I CAN VERIFY MY ACADEMIC KNOWLEDGE & SKILLS:

• I have no problem with requests to solve sample problems upfront to prove my knowledge & proficiency of the course concepts.
• I can provide glowing references & strong examples of work done for past clients to verify my academic skills.
• I can also provide, upon request, complete detailed calculations with explanations for solutions to the problems worked on.
• I am quite skilled and adept in using multiple modernized educational platforms and software, including but not limited to: Brightspace MyStatLab D2L WebAssign Canvas MyMathLab Blackboard ALEKS
• Can format term papers and discussion posts in APA MLA Harvard Chicago Vancouver OSCOLA IEEE format.

I HAVE PAID ACCESS TO OVER 15 STUDY-HELP WEBSITES AND MATHEMATICAL SOFTWARE:

• I have multiple paid subscriptions to a wide range of academic tutoring resources, including Chegg, Quizlet, CourseHero, Brainly, Grammarly, Study. com, Bartleby, Slader, Transtutors, Slideshare, StudocU, Turnitin, Academia, SymboLab, WolframAlpha, and Scribd to help guide to solve exam & homework questions that I may not immediately know.
• However, I am smart enough not to blatantly plagiarize solutions online but instead write them in my own unique words, formatting, & mathematical terminology.
• I have access to a very sophisticated graphing calculator and various mathematical software that provides step-by-step solutions to complex mathematical problems within seconds, allowing me to provide exact solutions to the student in a timely manner.
• I have impeccable handwriting and a high-quality mobile scanner app that allows me to scan written solutions in very legible high-definition JPG, PNG, or PDF formats.

MY AVAILABILITY & RELIABILITY:

• Depending on my availability, I can accommodate immediate tutoring requests, 1-24 hour, and 1-30-day deadlines.
• I can schedule live real-time online sessions and meet deadlines in an impressively timely fashion.
• I can provide quick notifications and updates of progress made in the student's class via email text phone calls.
• I can also be available to tutor students for Fall 2021 Spring 2022 Summer 2022 semesters.

MY EDUCATIONAL SOFTWARE OF EXPERTISE:

• I am very knowledgeable and well-versed in a wide range of educational software to tutor students in including but not limited to: Acellus ALEKS APEX Learning Aplia Blackboard Brightspace Canvas Cengage CengageNow Connect ConnectMath Connexus CPM D2L Discord Edmentum Eviews Examity Excel Hawkes Learning Honorlock Khan Academy Knewton LimeSpring Lumen Maple MasteringChemistry MasteringPhysics MathXL (XL) MATLAB McGraw-Hill Microsoft Word Minitab Moodle MyAccountingLab MyEconLab MyITLab MyLab My Lab MyMathLab My Math Lab MyOpenMath MyPsychLab MySocLab MyStatLab My Stat Lab NCSS Open Source Software Pearson PERT PlatoWeb PowerPoint Prezi R Respondus Lockdown Browser with Webcam Sapling SPSS Stata StraighterLine Straighter Line WebAssign Web Assign Webex (Cisco) WebWork Wiley WileyPlus Wonderlic Zoom

SCHOOLS FROM WHICH I'VE HELPED STUDENTS IN :
As of 2021, I have tutored and helped students enrolled at the following U.S. universities community colleges county & city colleges schools for-profit institutions listed below in alphabetical order:

• A - C: American Public University System (APUS) Arizona State Ashford Brigham Young Brown Broward California State (Fullerton) Capella Chamberlain (Illinois) Colorado Technical Columbia Columbia Southern Cornell
• D - K: Dallas College Dartmouth DeVry Excelsior College Florida International Florida State Full Sail Georgia State Grand Canyon Harvard Houston Community College Ivy Tech Community College Kaplan Kennesaw State Kent State
• L - T: Liberty Lone Star College System Kaplan Miami Dade Michigan State CUNY State University of New York (SUNY) Northern Virginia Ohio State University of Phoenix (UOP) Penn State Princeton Purdue (Davenport) San Diego State San Francisco State San Jose State Southern New Hampshire Southern Nevada Stanford St. Petersburg Strayer Texas Tech
• UNIVERSITY OF: Alabama Arizona California (UC) Central Florida Chicago Cincinnati Florida Houston Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) Iowa Maryland Minnesota Michigan North Texas Pennsylvania Southern Florida Texas Toronto
• U - Z: UCLA Extension Utah State Utah Valley Valencia Walden U Wake Technical Western Governors Wilmington Yale

Paid Help from Hiraedu: If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641
I OFFER FLEXIBLE PAYMENT PLANS:

• I offer several unique payment plans, including a weekly plan, a discounted monthly plan, a discounted half-now / half-later plan, and highly discounted up-front rates.
• I can accept the following payment methods for my services: PayPal Debit Cards Square Cash Credit Cards Cash App Venmo.
• Only people located in North America have access to Venmo Cash App Zelle.
• This is an excellent way to determine if the person you're dealing with is from the United States.
• Within reason, I offer a partial or full money-Back guarantee if the student is very unsatisfied with my academic services.

TUTORING AVAILABLE FOR OTHER SUBJECTS:

• For other subjects, you can reach out to me, and I can connect you with one of my tutoring partners who can provide general academic assistance for the following subjects:
• Art & Design: Art History Design Film Studies
• Business: Accounting (Acc) Biz Courses Business Administration (Biz Admn) Business Calculus Business Law Business Statistics Corporate Finance Economics (Econ) Finance (Fin) Financial Accounting Intermediate Accounting Intermediate Microeconomics (Micro) Macroeconomics (Macro) Management (Mgmt) Managerial Accounting Marketing MBA
• Computer Science: C C++ Computer Programming (Comp) Java Python R (Introduction & Intermediate Level Only)
• Humanities: Communications (Comm) English Literature Essay & Term Paper Writing, Editing, Proofreading Essays History Papers Philosophy (Phil) Religious Studies Theology (Theo)
• Mathematics: A.P. Calculus AB & BC Psychology Statistics AP Statistics Bio statistics Calculus I (1) Calculus II (2) Calculus III (3) College Algebra Differential Equations Discrete Math Finite Math Functions General Math Geometry Liberal Arts Math Linear Algebra Multi-variable Calculus Partial Differential Equations Precalculus Probability Quantitative Reasoning Real Analysis Statistics Trigonometry (Trig) Vector Calculus
• Science & Medicine: Anatomy & Physiology (A & P) Biochemistry Biology (Bio) Biostatistics Earth Science Environmental Science General Chemistry (Chem) Healthcare Medicine Nursing Nutrition Organic Chemistry Physics (Phys)
• Social Sciences: Anthropology Economics (Econ) Geology Law & Justice Liberal Arts Liberal Studies Political Science Psychology Sociology

THE OBLIGATORY "IS THIS A SCAM?" QUESTION:
Considering the fact that you found my contact information online, it’s understandable to be skeptical regarding the legitimacy of my services. Therefore, I’m willing to do all of the following to help you feel more secure in trusting me with your academic needs:

• 1) Speak with you on the phone and answer any questions you may have so that you have the opportunity to assess and analyze my tone, articulation, accent, diction, dialect, regionalisms, pitch, vocabulary, word choice, intonations, and inflections.
• NOTE: I’m a New Jersey-born Irish/Italian-American, but I have been told that I speak in an erudite & articulate suburban American accent with a “professor style” voice somewhat resembling the voice of actor: Ben Stein.
• 2) Agree to do some homework questions of yours upfront with the work fully shown in real-time to prove my mastery of the course content.
• 3) Send you screenshots of at least five past scores I attained from completing exams & homework assignments for other students in the same type of class you need help with.
• 4) Send you full screenshots of written exam solutions I wrote up by hand for students in the past in the same course that you need help with so that you can see my neat handwriting.
• 5) Provide you with the contact information of students who have utilized my services in the past who would be more than willing to vouch for my skills.

MY REBUTTAL TO THE OBLIGATORY “IS THIS A SCAM?” QUESTION:
At the risk of sounding arrogant, I consider myself to be at least marginally more intelligent (both academically & socially) than the average person. Therefore, if I ever decided to suddenly risk prison time, risk my reputation, and risk enduring the wrath of modern-day “cancel culture” by scamming people out of their money:

• I certainly wouldn’t do it for such paltry amounts of money. (i.e., anything less than $1,000 per victim.)
• I certainly wouldn’t choose high school & college students as my “target audience” to scam, considering that most people without college degrees have abysmally low annual incomes. Why choose low-income victims when it would be much more profitable to target high-income, high-net-worth individuals earning at least six figures a year? I have knowledge in business consulting, and I promise you that a business owner would be a MUCH more lucrative mark than a low-income college student.
• I wouldn’t choose such a time & energy-draining method of scamming people. Also, communicating back and forth with potential clients is an absurdly long time sink since only less than 10% of all potential clients who reach out to me actually become paying clients of mine. This means that 90% of my time communicating with potential clients ultimately proves to be a colossal waste of my irretrievable time & energy.
• If you pay me to provide academic services and I don’t deliver, you can always dispute the payment with the payment app and easily get your money refunded. If I were in the habit of swindling money from people, then all of my payment accounts would have been investigated and be completely shut down by now. And I would have been permanently banned from opening new accounts. Therefore, the fact that all my payment apps have been fully active for years should be sufficient proof that I haven’t had people consistently disputing payments sent to me.

HOW TO CONTACT ME:
Paid Help from Hiraedu: If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641

• I take my work as a tutor very seriously, and I always aim to do my best to help my students excel in school. I have a solid and sincere passion for academic achievement, and with my help, I am positive that I can help students obtain very high grades with minimal stress and effort.
• Please feel free to contact me if you're interested in my services and would like to learn more. I'm available 24/7 via phone call, email, and text. Again, thank you for taking the time to read my Reddit tutoring ad, and I hope to hear from you soon!

My contact details:
WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657
Call: +1 727 456 9641
Website: hiraedu. com
Email: [info@hiraedu](mailto:info@hiraedu). com
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If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641
ASSESSMENTS I CAN COMPLETE:

• Online Courses (1 - 20 Weeks Long)
• Homework Assignments
• Exams Quizzes Tests
• Excel Projects
• Discussion Forum Posts
• Research Papers Term Papers Essays
• Employment Assessments

MY MATH SUBJECTS OF EXPERTISE:
I am very knowledgeable and proficient in assisting students in a wide range of mathematics classes. I can help students complete their homework assignments and other projects get an A on quizzes, tests, and exams (including proctored assessments) answer online discussion posts write essays & papers in MLA APA Chicago format and provide general overall academic help in each math course listed below:

• Advanced Placement Honors High School Level Math
• AP Calculus AB A.P. Calculus BC
• AP Statistics
• Biostatistics Bio-Statistics
• College Algebra Intermediate Algebra
• Business Calculus
• Business Statistics
• Business Math
• Calculus I Calculus II Calculus III (Calc)
• Geometry
• International Baccalaureate (IB) Maths
• Liberal Arts Math
• Logic & Reasoning
• Multivariable Calculus Multi variable Calculus
• Precalculus Pre-calculus
• Probability & Statistics
• Psychology Statistics Psych Stats
• Quantitative Reasoning Quantitative Methods Quantitative Literacy (Quant)
• Statistics (Stats)
• Statistics for Social Sciences
• Trigonometry (Trig)

STATISTICS HELP (MY BEST SUBJECT):

• I have a master's degree in Applied Statistics from a university in New Jersey, USA. As a result, I am very proficient in helping students with various types of Statistics courses including Biostatistics Business Statistics Elementary Statistics Probability & Statistics Psychology Statistics.
• I have extensive knowledge and skill with helping students get through various statistical concepts including all of the following in alphabetical order:
• ANOVA Bar Graph, Boxplot, Dot Plot, Histogram, Pie Chart Bias Binomial, Exponential, Poisson, Gamma, Uniform Distribution Central Limit Theorem Chi-Square Test Coefficient of Determination (R^2) Conditional & Relative Probability Confidence Interval Correlation Coefficient (r) Critical Region Critical Value Descriptive & Inferential Statistics Effect Size Expected Value Experiment vs Observation Goodness of Fit Test Hypothesis Testing Interpolation & Extrapolation Interquartile Range (IQR) Kurtosis Left, Negative, Right, Positive Skewed Distribution Logistic Regression Mean, Median, Mode, Midrange Multiple Regression Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio I Population Parameter Normal, Symmetric & Bell Shaped Distribution Null & Alternate Hypothesis One & Two Sample T-Test One & Two Sample Z-Test Ordinary Least Squares Outliers P-Value Pooled Variance (Equal Variances) Proportion R^2 Range Regression Regression Line Reject & Fail to Reject Ho Relative & Cumulative Frequency Distributions Relativity & Reliability Right, Left, One, Two Tailed Tailed Hypothesis Test Sample Statistics Sampling Methods (Convenience, Stratified, Simple, Cluster, Systematic) Significance Level (1%, 5%, 10%) Skewness Standard Deviation& Variance T-Score Test Statistic Time Series Type I & Type II Errors Unbiased Estimators Z-Score

ALGEBRA HELP:

• I am well-versed in helping students do well in Algebra 1 & 2 College Algebra Intermediate Algebra Pre-Algebra and I am very knowledgeable and proficient in the following algebra topics in alphabetical order:
• Absolute Values Circle Equation Domain Exponents Graphing Horizontal & Vertical Asymptotes Inequalities, Equations & Functions Inverse Functions Linear, Exponential, Logarithmic, Quadratic Equations Logarithms Maximum & Minimum Values of a Graph Number Lines One-to-One Functions Parallel & Perpendicular Lines Plotting Points & Ordered Pairs Point-Slope Form Polynomial Division Polynomials Radicals Range Rational & Irrational Expressions Rational Functions Real Roots Real Zeros Relations & Functions Slope Slope-Intercept Form Square Roots Standard Form of a Line System of Equations System of Inequalities Variables X and Y Intercepts

CALCULUS HELP:

• I am well-versed in helping students do well in Calculus I, II & III, Calculus 1, 2 & 3, Business Calculus, Multivariable Calculus, Vector Calculus and I am very knowledgeable and proficient in the following calculus topics in alphabetical order:
• Absolute & Local Maximum and Minimum Antiderivative Area & Volume Chain Rule Concavity Continuity Convergence Test Critical Points Curvature Curve of Rotation Curve Sketching Derivatives Divergence Test First & Second Derivative Test Fourier Series Implicit Differentiation Increasing / Decreasing Functions Infinite Series Integrals Integration by Parts Jacobian Matrix Limits L’Hopital’s Rule Maclaurin Series Mean Value Theorem Partial Derivative Product & Quotient Rule Reiman Sum Related Rates Simpson’s Rule Solid of Revolution Substitution Rule Taylor Series

Paid Help from Hiraedu: If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641
ATTRIBUTES THAT SET ME APART FROM OTHER TUTORS:

• I firmly believe that I have many attributes and skills that set me apart from other tutors. Below is a list of qualities that makes me an ideal fit to help you master your coursework:

I CAN AID STUDENTS TAKING PROCTORED ASSESSMENTS:

• Proficient in CollegeBoard AP Calculus AB, AP Calculus BC & AP Statistics exams.
• Skilled with International Baccalaureate Math Exams: IB Maths HL & IB Maths SL
• Can intentionally answer a few problems incorrectly at the student's request.
• Can text solutions to the student while they are taking a proctored exam.
• Upon request, can purposely obtain grades below an A (ex: B+, B, C+, C-).
• I can stretch out the time to a plausible length for timed exams and assignments before submitting them.
• Have reliable software that can change my IP address to match the closest major city near the student.
• I have exceptional multiple-choice exam-taking skills. I have mastered the various techniques to make calculated guesses for the correct option in standardized exams such as the SAT & GRE.

I CAN VERIFY MY ACADEMIC KNOWLEDGE & SKILLS:

• I have no problem with requests to solve sample problems upfront to prove my knowledge & proficiency of the course concepts.
• I can provide glowing references & strong examples of work done for past clients to verify my academic skills.
• I can also provide, upon request, complete detailed calculations with explanations for solutions to the problems worked on.
• I am quite skilled and adept in using multiple modernized educational platforms and software, including but not limited to: Brightspace MyStatLab D2L WebAssign Canvas MyMathLab Blackboard ALEKS
• Can format term papers and discussion posts in APA MLA Harvard Chicago Vancouver OSCOLA IEEE format.

I HAVE PAID ACCESS TO OVER 15 STUDY-HELP WEBSITES AND MATHEMATICAL SOFTWARE:

• I have multiple paid subscriptions to a wide range of academic tutoring resources, including Chegg, Quizlet, CourseHero, Brainly, Grammarly, Study. com, Bartleby, Slader, Transtutors, Slideshare, StudocU, Turnitin, Academia, SymboLab, WolframAlpha, and Scribd to help guide to solve exam & homework questions that I may not immediately know.
• However, I am smart enough not to blatantly plagiarize solutions online but instead write them in my own unique words, formatting, & mathematical terminology.
• I have access to a very sophisticated graphing calculator and various mathematical software that provides step-by-step solutions to complex mathematical problems within seconds, allowing me to provide exact solutions to the student in a timely manner.
• I have impeccable handwriting and a high-quality mobile scanner app that allows me to scan written solutions in very legible high-definition JPG, PNG, or PDF formats.

MY AVAILABILITY & RELIABILITY:

• Depending on my availability, I can accommodate immediate tutoring requests, 1-24 hour, and 1-30-day deadlines.
• I can schedule live real-time online sessions and meet deadlines in an impressively timely fashion.
• I can provide quick notifications and updates of progress made in the student's class via email text phone calls.
• I can also be available to tutor students for Fall 2021 Spring 2022 Summer 2022 semesters.

MY EDUCATIONAL SOFTWARE OF EXPERTISE:

• I am very knowledgeable and well-versed in a wide range of educational software to tutor students in including but not limited to: Acellus ALEKS APEX Learning Aplia Blackboard Brightspace Canvas Cengage CengageNow Connect ConnectMath Connexus CPM D2L Discord Edmentum Eviews Examity Excel Hawkes Learning Honorlock Khan Academy Knewton LimeSpring Lumen Maple MasteringChemistry MasteringPhysics MathXL (XL) MATLAB McGraw-Hill Microsoft Word Minitab Moodle MyAccountingLab MyEconLab MyITLab MyLab My Lab MyMathLab My Math Lab MyOpenMath MyPsychLab MySocLab MyStatLab My Stat Lab NCSS Open Source Software Pearson PERT PlatoWeb PowerPoint Prezi R Respondus Lockdown Browser with Webcam Sapling SPSS Stata StraighterLine Straighter Line WebAssign Web Assign Webex (Cisco) WebWork Wiley WileyPlus Wonderlic Zoom

SCHOOLS FROM WHICH I'VE HELPED STUDENTS IN :
As of 2021, I have tutored and helped students enrolled at the following U.S. universities community colleges county & city colleges schools for-profit institutions listed below in alphabetical order:

• A - C: American Public University System (APUS) Arizona State Ashford Brigham Young Brown Broward California State (Fullerton) Capella Chamberlain (Illinois) Colorado Technical Columbia Columbia Southern Cornell
• D - K: Dallas College Dartmouth DeVry Excelsior College Florida International Florida State Full Sail Georgia State Grand Canyon Harvard Houston Community College Ivy Tech Community College Kaplan Kennesaw State Kent State
• L - T: Liberty Lone Star College System Kaplan Miami Dade Michigan State CUNY State University of New York (SUNY) Northern Virginia Ohio State University of Phoenix (UOP) Penn State Princeton Purdue (Davenport) San Diego State San Francisco State San Jose State Southern New Hampshire Southern Nevada Stanford St. Petersburg Strayer Texas Tech
• UNIVERSITY OF: Alabama Arizona California (UC) Central Florida Chicago Cincinnati Florida Houston Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) Iowa Maryland Minnesota Michigan North Texas Pennsylvania Southern Florida Texas Toronto
• U - Z: UCLA Extension Utah State Utah Valley Valencia Walden U Wake Technical Western Governors Wilmington Yale

Paid Help from Hiraedu: If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641
I OFFER FLEXIBLE PAYMENT PLANS:

• I offer several unique payment plans, including a weekly plan, a discounted monthly plan, a discounted half-now / half-later plan, and highly discounted up-front rates.
• I can accept the following payment methods for my services: PayPal Debit Cards Square Cash Credit Cards Cash App Venmo.
• Only people located in North America have access to Venmo Cash App Zelle.
• This is an excellent way to determine if the person you're dealing with is from the United States.
• Within reason, I offer a partial or full money-Back guarantee if the student is very unsatisfied with my academic services.

TUTORING AVAILABLE FOR OTHER SUBJECTS:

• For other subjects, you can reach out to me, and I can connect you with one of my tutoring partners who can provide general academic assistance for the following subjects:
• Art & Design: Art History Design Film Studies
• Business: Accounting (Acc) Biz Courses Business Administration (Biz Admn) Business Calculus Business Law Business Statistics Corporate Finance Economics (Econ) Finance (Fin) Financial Accounting Intermediate Accounting Intermediate Microeconomics (Micro) Macroeconomics (Macro) Management (Mgmt) Managerial Accounting Marketing MBA
• Computer Science: C C++ Computer Programming (Comp) Java Python R (Introduction & Intermediate Level Only)
• Humanities: Communications (Comm) English Literature Essay & Term Paper Writing, Editing, Proofreading Essays History Papers Philosophy (Phil) Religious Studies Theology (Theo)
• Mathematics: A.P. Calculus AB & BC Psychology Statistics AP Statistics Bio statistics Calculus I (1) Calculus II (2) Calculus III (3) College Algebra Differential Equations Discrete Math Finite Math Functions General Math Geometry Liberal Arts Math Linear Algebra Multi-variable Calculus Partial Differential Equations Precalculus Probability Quantitative Reasoning Real Analysis Statistics Trigonometry (Trig) Vector Calculus
• Science & Medicine: Anatomy & Physiology (A & P) Biochemistry Biology (Bio) Biostatistics Earth Science Environmental Science General Chemistry (Chem) Healthcare Medicine Nursing Nutrition Organic Chemistry Physics (Phys)
• Social Sciences: Anthropology Economics (Econ) Geology Law & Justice Liberal Arts Liberal Studies Political Science Psychology Sociology

THE OBLIGATORY "IS THIS A SCAM?" QUESTION:
Considering the fact that you found my contact information online, it’s understandable to be skeptical regarding the legitimacy of my services. Therefore, I’m willing to do all of the following to help you feel more secure in trusting me with your academic needs:

• 1) Speak with you on the phone and answer any questions you may have so that you have the opportunity to assess and analyze my tone, articulation, accent, diction, dialect, regionalisms, pitch, vocabulary, word choice, intonations, and inflections.
• NOTE: I’m a New Jersey-born Irish/Italian-American, but I have been told that I speak in an erudite & articulate suburban American accent with a “professor style” voice somewhat resembling the voice of actor: Ben Stein.
• 2) Agree to do some homework questions of yours upfront with the work fully shown in real-time to prove my mastery of the course content.
• 3) Send you screenshots of at least five past scores I attained from completing exams & homework assignments for other students in the same type of class you need help with.
• 4) Send you full screenshots of written exam solutions I wrote up by hand for students in the past in the same course that you need help with so that you can see my neat handwriting.
• 5) Provide you with the contact information of students who have utilized my services in the past who would be more than willing to vouch for my skills.

MY REBUTTAL TO THE OBLIGATORY “IS THIS A SCAM?” QUESTION:
At the risk of sounding arrogant, I consider myself to be at least marginally more intelligent (both academically & socially) than the average person. Therefore, if I ever decided to suddenly risk prison time, risk my reputation, and risk enduring the wrath of modern-day “cancel culture” by scamming people out of their money:

• I certainly wouldn’t do it for such paltry amounts of money. (i.e., anything less than $1,000 per victim.)
• I certainly wouldn’t choose high school & college students as my “target audience” to scam, considering that most people without college degrees have abysmally low annual incomes. Why choose low-income victims when it would be much more profitable to target high-income, high-net-worth individuals earning at least six figures a year? I have knowledge in business consulting, and I promise you that a business owner would be a MUCH more lucrative mark than a low-income college student.
• I wouldn’t choose such a time & energy-draining method of scamming people. Also, communicating back and forth with potential clients is an absurdly long time sink since only less than 10% of all potential clients who reach out to me actually become paying clients of mine. This means that 90% of my time communicating with potential clients ultimately proves to be a colossal waste of my irretrievable time & energy.
• If you pay me to provide academic services and I don’t deliver, you can always dispute the payment with the payment app and easily get your money refunded. If I were in the habit of swindling money from people, then all of my payment accounts would have been investigated and be completely shut down by now. And I would have been permanently banned from opening new accounts. Therefore, the fact that all my payment apps have been fully active for years should be sufficient proof that I haven’t had people consistently disputing payments sent to me.

HOW TO CONTACT ME:
Paid Help from Hiraedu: If You're struggling to handle your Online Exams, Assignments or any other coursework, get help from Hiraedu and pay after the exam. Contact details for Hiraedu is: WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657 OR Call: +1 727 456 9641

• I take my work as a tutor very seriously, and I always aim to do my best to help my students excel in school. I have a solid and sincere passion for academic achievement, and with my help, I am positive that I can help students obtain very high grades with minimal stress and effort.
• Please feel free to contact me if you're interested in my services and would like to learn more. I'm available 24/7 via phone call, email, and text. Again, thank you for taking the time to read my Reddit tutoring ad, and I hope to hear from you soon!

My contact details:
WhatsApp: +1 (213) 594-5657
Call: +1 727 456 9641
Website: hiraedu. com
Email: [info@hiraedu](mailto:info@hiraedu). com
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Hello everyone, I have for sale a 12.9 inch M1 iPad Pro in Space Grey. Wifi edition with 128gb and includes the Apple Smart Folio keyboard and pencil as stated in title and also has a tempered glass screen protector. It’s in great condition, there is a small scratch on the side and a close up pic of flaw is included. Battery health should be good as I babied it, though I’m not able to see the exact %.
Pics and time stamp: https://imgur.com/a/8xb3win Repairs: None Price: looking for $700 obo PayPal invoice

Timestamp: https://i.imgur.com/uaeSc4s.jpeg
All detailed pictures: https://imgur.com/a/nBxBIkB
All prices paid via Paypal G&S, per subreddit rules since I'm still low flair. Post dibs then PM me please.
Sordins + Amp Arms + AXL RAC Link setup for Ops Core Helmet. I was planning to mount MSA Sordins to a helmet with Ops-Core Amp Arms and AXL RAC Links. Decided to go a different route, so selling these parts together. This should be everything you need for your Ops-Core helmet to get ear protection mounted on there. All these parts are new, never actually used outside of the beginning stages of mounting to a helmet, and the first steps of modification on the Sordins to get them ready. All 3 of these together for $395 shipped. Just trying to sell together right now.

• MSA Sordin Supreme Pro-X. No headband with half of the wire harness thing dremeled off so that the AXL RAC links could be attached. I did nick the post with the dremel as you can see in the last picture. Once again, the headband is cut off so do not buy this if you're not planning to use with a helmet setup.
• Ops-Core Amp Arms. Pair of them (2 arms). Black.
• AXL RAC Links. Never mounted, only pulled them out of the original packaging for the picture.

Other individual items for sale:

• Act In Black NVG (PVS14) Bikini Cover. New. $25 shipped
• Haley Strategic Thorntail Picatinny Offset Scout Mount. Lightly used. $35 shipped. Sold
• Sig Sauer Romeo5 SOLD AS IS - READ DESCRIPTION. This turns on but the MOTAC malfunctions. It rode on a 10/22 its entire life and then around the 5-year mark the MOTAC quit detecting motion well. Ultimately, if you're not moving the sight around fairly vigorously, it will likely turn off because it. You can turn back on by pressing a button (or moving the sight more vigorously), but there's a good chance it will turn back off again in a couple minutes. I sent it back to Sig Sauer customer service 2x and the first time they said it was fine. 2nd time they agreed that yes, the MOTAC is malfunctioning. But unfortunately the Romeo5 only has a 5 year warranty so they wouldn't fix it. Personally, it was fine for a plinking gun but I want to shoot some competitions with this 10/22 now so want something slightly more reliable. Depending on your application, could still work great for you. Has original box, adjustment tool, 2 mounts. $40 shipped. Sold

Howdy swap, I have a few up for sale today. If you have any questions about any of these feel free to shoot me a message. Only trade I may be willing to make is for a Cortex XL but mainly just trying to sell. Yolo is king. Zelle only at the moment as I’m having issues with PayPal. Should ship out Monday. Other than that thanks for checking these out!
https://imgur.com/a/7hyTb1g
SPK Lamia nature grip: this one was from the swap so at least second owner, Elmax blade, nature grip handles, cut, carried, disassembled, and sharpened, no signs of snail trails or wear that I can see besides being sharpened, came in a pouch and will ship in same pouch. SV: $900 TV: $900 SOLD
Modded Koenig Arius: just picked this one up last week on the swap, wanted to try it out compared to the Rosie but still prefer my Rosie, came a little dull so I did sharpen it with the precision adjust pro but one bevel came out a little wider than the other side so adjusted price accordingly, other than that everything else is in amazing condition. Below are the mods done to it according to previous owner: * Custom Shepared cc custom carbon fiber scale with windows and micro milling. * Ted Rooney vapor honed the scales and anodized the hardware, backspacer and clip blurpuple. * Vapor Honed Scales and blurple anodized hardware, spacer and clip by Ted Rooney * Flipper Delete by geckcustom SV: $850 TV: $850
CRK Backpacker: just picked up this one from the swap a couple days ago as well and was hoping it would be small and lightweight enough for me to EDC but I can’t find a way to comfortably carry it since I mainly wear athletic wear, was not cut or carried by me. Looks like there’s a little of the finish worn off on sheath rivets, other than that in great condition, comes with original box and paperwork, letting it go for what I paid for it. SV: $395
Magnacut PM2: first owner, DLC coated Magnacut blade, black G10 handles, impulsively purchased this one last week but I doubt I’m ever really going to carry it so just going to let it go, LNIB condition, never cut, carried, or disassembled, just flicked open a few times. SV: $220
CruWear PM2: first owner, satin cruwear blade, natural canvas micatra handles, have had this one for a while, cut, carried, and sharpened, but never disassembled, pocket clip screw did get cross threaded and broke off inside handles upon attempt to remove, it was a user so pricing accordingly. SV: $100 SOLD

So, even though I had issues with the Delta Pro and extra battery, those issues have seemed to be rectified here, I needed an AC unit for my home office; we have central heat, but with the Texas summer, I have to use something to augment the central air conditioner in here, since I have a baby datacenter being in here with me. I have a not so efficient portable Toshiba air conditioner, and it's pretty loud, and doesn't quite work as well as it used to. Since we like to go camping, I figured I'll just swap out the air conditioners whenever we want to take "lil AC" with us. Anyways, I saw the Wave 2's were on sale on eBay refurbed, so I got one up, plugged it in, and everything seems to work.
I don't have the issue where the air has been trying to get warm on me (fingers crossed and knocking on wood, I don't!). However, what I do have now is a garbled display now. I had been turning on and off the unit as a test, even as far as ensuring that I went ahead and popped the mini-GFI in the plug to unplug it, and swap from the Delta Pro and extra battery to main current. No issues with that, unit would power up with the correct indications on the LCD.
However, once I turned off the Wave 2 with the mobile app on my iPhone (I think it was to change from mains back to DP and battery), the display came up garbled. I can see that happening from time to time (I mean, software should always be anticipated to have issues, just the nature of the business). However, what I cannot seem to figure out is if there is a sequence of keys I can press to tell the LCD to reset itself. I know on the DP, you can continue holding down the power button, and it will reset the detected battery left. Is there such a function on the Wave 2? I like keeping the display on, but now I have to depend on the mobile app, and since it's the only difference between displaying correctly or not, I am ruling that the mobile app turning it off could have caused an issue.
Anyone ever figure such a reset out? I have been trying to search all over the internet, and haven't found official or unofficial guidance. I'll attach the video of the device starting up to this thread.
iOS app version: v5.3.0.88 (already latest version, updated about a week or two ago, if I recall)
Wave 2 F/W: v1.0.0.1
Wave 2 Wifi: v1.0.11.0 (never installed an update, and was never offered one since I've owned it)
Edited to add this link to the video.