Rules:
-no direct kills or environmental damage
-amigos allowed, but not able to point them to enemies
-have fun
*note* any time i say i killed someone, it wasn't a kill for me, it was an amigo kill or an ally kill that I'm paraphrasing
[Libertad Missions]
intro / Juan of a kind:
-0
du or die
-0
Benito missions
-0
Libertad rises
-14

• unable to use amigo and allies didn't do damage to soldiers. had to break all 6 alarms to limit soldiers needed to end mission.

-didn't like that many so i restarted and just hid while allies SLOWLY killed everyone
-final count of 0 for that mission
Paradise lost
-0
the lions den
-no amigos or anything else, so i stealthed everything till clara died
-after cutscene, i had amigos so i spawned oluso, however two helis spawned, and with no friends in sight i decided to just kill the infinite spawning foot soldiers to see if maybe progression is based off a number i needed to hit.
-eventually the two helis just kind of crashed even at full health, very happy about that
-mission ended with 0 kills, despite my worries
Final mission
-0
-LOL i could run past literally everyone to the cutscene, much less challenging than some other missions by far
Total for Libertad section:
14
MAXIMAS MATANZAS SECTION
meet maximas matanzas
-0
break the chains
-0
re education
-0
bembe intro
-0
precious cargo
-0
hype bomb
-0
radio Libertad
-0
guerrilla radio
-0
-very tough, rng as to if enough random allies walked by to take out helicopter -took multiple attempts
-learned to destroy nearby or arrived enemy vehicles that had turrets to prevent new enemies from using them
-oluso would sometimes glitch out and seemingly not attack anyone, even when directed, but would fall back to be near me, fixed by dying.
firebrand
-0
bottle episode
-0
words like bullets
-0
-couldn't bring oluso into the fight due to it being a closed building i was teleported into, but i had an npc with a strong weapon and she cleared it as i repeatedly revived and healed her
lost and found
-0
intervention
-0
surgical precision
-0
angel de la muerte
-1

• the target of assassin, and i was indoors and unable to spawn amigo

-tested a few methods, like bait, waiting for a grenade to have him walk himself into(which i don't believe he has equipped), and simply waiting for anything of note to happen. none had promise
-don't see promise in the completely controlled environment and so am passing it as a necessary kill, no need to look into
-he was kind of a bad person anyway
Total for chapter: 1
THE LEGENDS SECTION
meeting the legends
-0
medicine
-0
the new revolution
-0
pics or it didn't happen
-0
the new revolution
-0
initially amigos couldn't be brought into mission for stealth since they cannot enter the ship, and when summoned they spawn in the water
-after disabling all alarms and saving hostages non stealth, i summoned oluso and he managed to spawn next to me, but i also was mid revival from being dead when he spawned
-may have accidentally used exploit where amigo spawns next to you if u ask for them while reviving??
-used helicopter on board and realized hovering high above the boat somehow spawned guerillas with heat seeking missile launchers, let it run its course
bullet points
-0
room service
-0
convoy
-0
national treasure
-0
harpoon
-7 total, 6 normal soldiers and admiral Benito
-leaving there for now
[second playthrough]
-1, admiral Benito
-had gas and flamethrower enemies kill every other enemy
-Benito is still impossible to avoid killing
tourist trap
-0
weapon of choice
-0
surgical strike
-0
the deported
-0
Total for chapter: 7
THE MONTEROS SECTION
meet the Montero's
-0
clear the air
-0
second son
-0
Packing heat
-0
flyball
-0
against the wall
-0
napoleon pequeño
-0
blood ties
-0
sundown
-0
bury the hatchet
-0
open skies
-0
dead drop
-0
diesel daisy
-0
death warrant
-0
Justicia Montero
-0

• had to bomb fields in a plane, so to avoid accidental kills, i went on foot and cleared the area with oluso before hand lighting the fields up and getting back in the plane when i was done

-initially worried but when i realized Anthony Castillo, the final dude of this section, is able to be shot in his Heli by other guerrillas, i was able to win by hiding with the shield gun in a little doorway in cover. even if any died, other guerillas respawned
-there weren't enough guerillas to cover me in case i died, so i just climbed up a ladder inside the building and stayed hallway so the helicopter would idle while being shot, and i was far enough away from the door to protect from explosive damage
-first section completely pacifist
Total for section: 0
TOTAL KILL COUNT:
Maximas Matanzas Section: 1
The Legends Section: 8 -> 4 -> 1
The Monteros Section: 0
Libertad Missions: 14 -> 0
TOTAL KILLS (as i reworked): 22 -> 5 -> 2
I will go back to see if the final guy from the maximas section is able to die from other causes, but as far as i can tell those 2 kills are impossible to be clean of. Thanks for reading, it took a lot of work and patience to complete my run!

Normally I would only do five starting pitchers, but the Tigers have six starters that I think will have a significant contribution to this team this year. Since Casey Mize will actually start the season in the rotation with Matt Manning demoted to AAA, I can’t skip doing Mize’s prediction (although there is a chance that Mize will see some time in Toledo at some point during the season). The Tigers have a depth in starting pitching, which also includes the likes of Sawyer Gipson-Long, Beau Brieskie, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Brant Hurter, and Jackson Jobe, to name a few, all of whom could make starts for the Tigers this year due to injuries, poor performances, or a trade or two. Eventually, everything will work itself out.
Casey Mize was the first overall pick by the Detroit Tigers in 2018 and made his Major League debut in 2020, starting seven games with a 6.99 ERA in a little over 28 innings, skipping over AAA altogether. Maybe he wasn’t quite ready for the Majors yet, but 2020 was a weird year without any Minor League games, so if the Tigers wanted Mize to pitch it had to be in the Majors. In 2021, Mize started 30 games with a 3.71 ERA, with a team leading 150 1/3 innings, giving Tiger fans hope for what may come in the future. However, he only started two games in 2022 and then was placed on the Injured List, eventually having Tommy John surgery and he hasn’t pitched until Spring Training this year.
Casey Mize’s numbers are kind of similar to Matt Manning’s numbers in that luck was likely on his side:
2021 – 6.7% BB% 19.3% K% 16.2% HFB% 3.71 ERA 4.92 xERA 4.71 FIP
Among those with at least 150 innings in 2021, Mize was 13th lowest in strikeout rate and 6th highest in home run to flyball ratio. His walk rate was above average, but control was an issue during Spring Training, which could be a factor in 2024 after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Altogether, his FIP was a run higher than his ERA in 2021. One encouraging stat was his groundball rate was at 48.1 percent.
Casey Mize throws a four-seam fastball, slider, sinker, splitter, and knuckle curve. Numbers are from 2021:
4-Seamer – 29.3% Usage .226 BAA .474 SLG Against
Slider – 28.1% Usage .194 BAA .335 SLG Against
Sinker – 22.7% Usage .322 BAA .557 SLG Against
Splitter – 13.2% Usage .203 BAA .304 SLG Against
Knuckle Curve – 6.7% Usage .133 BAA .200 SLG Against
He had the most trouble with the sinker in 2021 and he only threw it 3 times in his 10 innings in 2022, so maybe he was phasing it out in favor of throwing his fastball/splitter more often. Overall, opponents had a .254 batting average of balls in play against Mize that year, which will be very hard to sustain. Mize throws his fastball around 93.5 MPH and just like Manning, had very good extension in 2021.
Casey Mize needs to work on striking out guys more often, but also limiting the home runs (and walks may be an issue as well). It’s going to be even harder for Mize to make these adjustments after not pitching for almost 2 years; it usually takes one full year to get back to full efficiency. Mize is only entering his age-27 season, so he still has time to reach his full potential (and (he did have 20 strikeouts and allowed only 1 home run during Spring Training in 20 1/3 innings, but Spring Training stats should always be taken with a grain of salt). I think the Tigers are going to be more worried about his health this year to make sure he doesn’t have any setbacks, so I don’t expect much of an improvement. Hopefully I am wrong.
Experts’ Predictions/Projections:
Steamer – 127 IP 7-9 W/L 4.63 ERA 1.36 WHIP 103 K 38 BB
ZiPS DC – 114 IP 5-7 W/L 4.61 ERA 1.26 WHIP 85 K 33 BB
THE BAT – 105 IP 6-8 W/L 4.97 ERA 1.38 WHIP 67 K 32 BB
ATC – 103 IP 5-7 W/L 4.50 ERA 1.29 WHIP 80 K 30 BB
FGDC – 120 IP 6-8 W/L 4.62 ERA 1.31 WHIP 94 K 36 BB
RotoChamp – 109 IP 6-8 W/L 4.62 ERA 1.32 WHIP 81 K 32 BB
CBS Sports – 162 IP 7-10 W/L 3.89 ERA 1.22 WHIP 152 K 49 BB
ESPN – 101 IP 5 W 4.19 ERA 1.30 WHIP 67 K 31 BB
My Prediction:
2023 Prediction – N/A
2023 Actual – N/A
2024 Prediction – 122 1/3 IP 5-9 W/L 4.71 ERA 1.357 WHIP 89 K 43 BB

This is my first time posting to Reddit, so I hope I’m doing this right. Sorry in advance in not.
**Introduction** 1) Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs? * This will be my first dog as an adult. However, I grew up with dogs. My parents had two GSPs when I was a kid. They were great. I got my own dog (an Aussie shepherd mix) when I was in middle school, but unfortunately she came from a very poor breeding background and had some serious neurological issues including seizures. She was also dog reactive, and not really trainable despite us working with multiple trainers. She was sweet but very difficult to deal with, especially in public. She was also a couch potato, so not your typical Aussie in that way. She passed away quite young due to her issues. It was very tough for the whole family. I guess that’s why we haven’t had any dogs since, but it’s been a long time and we’re feeling ready for a dog again. Besides that, I also have a little bit of volunteer experience with dogs at a shelter. 2) Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a [reputable breeder]( http://ownresponsibly.blogspot.com/2011/07/identifying-reputable-breeder.html)? * While I like the idea of rescuing a dog, I will probably go with a reputable breeder because I want a dog with a solid background to hopefully avoid the kinds of issues I had with my past dog. I also know I want a puppy. 3) Describe your ideal dog. * My ideal dog would be intelligent, happy, gentle, sensitive, playful, not aggressive or reactive, highly trainable, eager to please, generally friendly with everyone including strangers - both people and other dogs (and so able to go places with me like to dog friendly stores, lakes, cafes, restaurants, dog parks, etc.), affectionate and cuddly, happy to go out and do things as well as stay at home, and hopefully interested in participating in dog sports of some kind. 4) What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why? * I have always liked Aussies and border collies, but I don’t really want another herding breed dog after my experience when I was younger. I know herding dogs in general have a tendency toward reactivity, which was hard to deal with. I love boxers and their sweet and goofy personalities, but I think they might be too big for me, and they don’t seem to be quite as trainable as I would like my dog to be (just speaking in general, of course). Brittanys are at the top of my potential breed list right now because they check a lot of my boxes and are the perfect size for me. Plus my family has had a lot of experience with pointers/bird dogs, and they have all been very nice dogs. I also really like how they look. Besides boxers, which are the exception, I tend to like dogs with longer hair or at least some light feathering. 5) What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do? * Anything and everything! I’ve always wanted to do trick training in addition to teaching the basics. I’ve also always been interested in dog sports. There are many different ones offered in my area, so it would be fun to try different things and see what we like. I might also like to participate in the Canine Good Citizen program, and maybe even get certified with this local therapy dog program where people take their dogs to nursing homes and hospitals to visit patients. I know every dog is an individual despite their breed. It’s okay if my dog turns out not to be a good fit for the therapy program and/or is just not interested in dog sports. Those are just things I’d like to try or at least learn about. I mostly just hope to spend lots of time together, and find some things we can do together to make life fun and interesting for both of us! 6) Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport? * Yes. I don’t have any personal training experience, but I do like to go watch our local agility, Flyball, and dock diving competitions when they happen. I’ve always wanted to participate in dog sports. There are tons of different classes available in my area, including scent work ones that a hunting breed dog might like, so it would be fun to check out different sports and activities to see what we both like. **Care Commitments** 7) How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day? * A lot of time! I can basically devote as much time as needed. I work from home and have a lot of flexibility for when I actually do my work/can split it into a few sessions. I hope to interact with my dog basically all day, but of course that means at least a few hours of each day would be spent with passive interactions like them hanging out nearby with their puzzle toy or something while I work on my computer or cook, as well as time spent relaxing on the couch together to watch TV at the end of the day, etc. But other than that, I plan to spend a lot of time interacting directly with them. I’m hoping my dog will be a big part of my life and open up lots of new experiences for me. 8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park? * Here’s where things get tougher for me. I have a medical condition that causes me issues, including fatigue. It’s pretty well managed at this point, but I am not and probably never will be an active person. I have concerns about this because I tend to like high energy active dog breeds, but I am not high energy or active myself. I hope I can do enough for the dog because I know it’s not fair to them if I can’t. I know I can do two 30 minute walks a day for sure, possibly building up to longer walks over time and especially in the cooler months. I can also play lots of fetch. Beyond that, I’d like to get involved with dog sports like I mentioned above. I plan to do basic training as well as more advanced trick training, plus playing games like hiding treats and using dog puzzles for mental stimulation. We have a big fenced in yard, so I can play games to simulate hunting with the dog too, like hiding toys in the yard and giving them directions to find and retrieve them. I can also take them swimming for exercise in the summer months. We have several nice dog friendly lakes in the area, and there is even a pool at a local dog sports training place that is open to the public for a fee when not in use for classes. You can even rent it out in blocks of time for your dog(s) only, which would be good especially while the dog is first learning how to swim. There is also the potential to use a special harness and train the dog to jog along with my bike. We have a dog friendly greenway here, and I’ve seen other people doing that with their dogs. I’m thinking dog parks might be good to help with exercise too, although I’ve heard mixed things about their risks and benefits. We have some really nice ones here in town that we could visit regularly if they turn out to be a good thing for my dog. My dad is an avid hiker and camper, and would like to take the dog along with him sometimes. I’m also thinking it might be a good idea to send the dog to doggy daycare once or twice a week just to help with socialization and exercise. No matter what, I know it’s important to give my dog a job to do and enough physical and mental exercise to be healthy and happy, even if it is hard for me. 9) How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly? * I’m fine with doing basic grooming like daily tooth brushing and light daily hair brushing, weekly more intense hair brushing, and as needed ear cleaning, nail trimming and baths at home. A bit of trimming hair would probably be doable if needed, like around their paw pads, etc. I would be willing to pay for professional grooming if needed a few times a year, but I would rather not have a dog that needs regular professional grooming. Prefer no poodle or doodle coat types for this reason. **Personal Preferences** 10) What size dog are you looking for? * Medium. I’d say 25 to 45 pounds or so. I’m really not a small dog person - just not for me, sorry. Bigger dogs are nice, but I’d prefer to have a dog I can pick up if needed. Plus a medium sized dog would be easier for me to handle and control than a big dog. 11) How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle? * I’m fine with average to slightly above average shedding. Prefer average or less barking, but I’m not super picky on this either. Slobber? Little to none please. 12) How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area? * It really doesn’t matter to me at all. **Dog Personality and Behavior** 13) Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space? * Snuggly and loving. 14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please? * More eager-to-please for sure. I’ve always preferred animals who are like that and who like to be near their people. My cat, who sadly recently passed away (in his 20s), was basically my shadow. He was always by my side or in my lap, and he slept tucked behind my knees every night. Is it weird to say that I’d like a dog who is a lot like my cat? He was very people-oriented, happy, friendly, outgoing, good with meeting new people, would greet visitors and even strangers who came to the door, traveled well, sensitive, especially loving/a “nurse” if anyone in the family was unwell, and loved learning tricks and playing fetch in his younger years (yes, really lol). He was the best boy ever! I miss him so much. 😭 My Aussie was the exact opposite in most ways, although of course I loved her very much too. She and my cat actually had a pretty cute relationship. But this time, I want a dog that I can actually take places and do things with! 15) How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors? * I wouldn’t mind a bit of barking to let me know someone has entered the yard or is at the door, but I wouldn’t want them to go nuts or refuse to stop when told. I know this can be trained and worked with, so it’s not a big concern. I also wouldn’t mind if the dog doesn’t alert me and just naturally ignores stuff like that. Either way, I want a friendly dog who is generally happy to see visitors and can learn to greet them in a polite way. 16) Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs? * No. If so happens that I end up with an aggressive dog, I’ll have no choice but to manage them. But I really, really, really don’t want an aggressive dog. 17) Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid? * Aggression and reactivity are the big two that I don’t want to deal with. I can probably deal with/work with most other behavioral problems that might come up. **Lifestyle** 18) How often and how long will the dog be left alone? * Not often and not for long. The dog would need to be able to stay home without me for 1-4 hours at a time about two to four days a week on average when I have appointments or need to go shopping or otherwise go out to places where I can’t take them. That said, I hope to take them with me as much as possible when and where I can. Plus I live with my parents, so someone would be home with them most of the time. I am aware that I would need to work on preventing separation anxiety from the start because I can see that being an issue, especially during the times when all of us need to go somewhere together without the dog. 19) What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog? * My parents have always liked and had hunting and working breed dogs. They’ve had several GSPs and an Irish setter since being married, and before that my mom had Weimaraners, a pitty, and a blue tick coonhound, while my dad had a border collie. They would be involved mostly by loving on the dog and enjoying their companionship. My dad has expressed an interest in hiking with the dog. He used to duck hunt with the shorthairs, but he doesn’t really hunt anymore, so he wouldn’t hunt with my dog. However, they would have fun romping through the woods together and going for short hikes, plus occasionally going on longer hikes and maybe camping trips. My mom would be happy to help with general care and training. If I were to get sick, hurt, or have a flare up of my illness, they would for sure care for the dog 100% until I got better. They’re really great. 20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they? * Currently, no other pets. I suppose there is a possibility that we could get another cat in the future, but there are no current plans for a cat or any other pets. If the dog could not get along with cats, it would be okay and they would be the only pet. 21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly? * I don’t have children or plan to, and none of my close friends and family members who visit regularly have young kids. Some of my more distant family members with young children may visit on very rare occasions. However, I would like a kid friendly breed and to socialize my dog with kids anyway, just to have an all around well-socialized dog and to limit risks in case a kid were to randomly run up and grab my dog or something while we are out, and in case we do end up doing volunteer therapy work, etc. 22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease? * No. 23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds? * Southeast USA, and no breed bans in my area except for in some apartments, which mostly ban bully breeds and wolf hybrids. 24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live? * Average summer temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s Fahrenheit. Moderate to high humidity. Winters are fairly mild. The average temperature is in the 40s, but it does drop below freezing sometimes, usually only for a few days at a time. We get a little bit of snow most winters, but not much and it usually doesn’t stick around for long. **Additional Information and Questions** 25) Please provide any additional information you feel may be relevant. * I’m not sure what else to add here. 26) Feel free to ask any questions below. * Do you think a Brittany would be right for me or could at least work out okay for me? If not, what other breeds would you suggest for me and why? Thanks!

We all know that AA has a big move left in him. He's a wheeler & dealer with an eye on upgrading whenever possible. What he hasn't been known for is spending on FA and at this point in the year I doubt he's thinking about dropping $200m on a top FA with the luxury tax threshold so close. But, what if he was? Is there a way to shoehorn a major upgrade into the mix without passing the dreaded third luxury tax threshold? Let's have some fun and speculate how it could be done.
First, let's set a target. I, and others, think Jordan Montgomery is AA's type of pitcher. He's a sinkerballer with 4 above average pitches. Here's what Brooks Baseball has to say about Montgomery: Their sinker has well above average velo. Their curve is much harder than usual, has primarily 12-6 movement and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' curves. Their change has surprising cut action and generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' changeups. Their fourseam fastball has less armside movement than typical, has some natural sinking action and has slightly above average velo. Their cutter is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' cutters, generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' cutters, has slightly above average velo, has some natural sink and has strong cutting action.
If you're thinking that's a good profile for a righty, you should remember he's a lefty! He also pitched a combined 524 innings over the last three years (a strong indicator of health) and helped the Rangers to their first WS title last year. That's a good profile for a Braves rotation. Montgomery actually looks a lot like Max Fried on paper. A lefty who has logged a strong innings total over the last 3 years (Fried actually logged 4 more than Monty) and has strong metrics.
Now, MLBTR pegged the 31yo Monty to get a $150m/6 year contract at the beginning of free agency. Now that we're into spring training and with may suitors off the board, that's looking less likely. Still, we can do what the Dodgers are so good at doing and have AA match the base line # with some luxury tax tricks. Let's build the contract like this:
Total: 6 years, $150m w/75m deferred.
Annual salary: $10m from 2024-2029
Deferral: $5m/year from 2030-2047
This contract has a $18.56m luxury tax hit for 2024 (assume 1% interest and 4.43% discount rate, see how to calculate it here). Since the braves are about $10m from the 3rd luxury tax limit ($265.3 / $277), they will need to reduce payroll to fit under the third tier. Since AA likes to keep some powder dry, for midseason trades, let's say that he will need to clear most of the money in the new contract to make the signing happen.
There are two contracts on the Braves payroll that stick out as expensive AND the type of short term assets AA might trade. This, as I've posted before, is the $18m due to Marcel Ozuna in 2024 and the $32m due to Raisel Iglesias over 2024 & 2025. While I might prefer to trade Ozuna given his inconsistent production, doing so opens a new hole in the lineup. Rather, I'd trade Iglesias as the Braves have several pitchers with closer experience and the capability to fill the role.
Trading Iglesias in spring won't bring back major value unless the Braves pay down his salary. In fact, a deadline trade might actually result in real value for Iggy, but we're more interested in bringing in Monty for this exercise than maximizing return for an asset. Thus, focusing on salary relief makes sense here. The trade partner that sticks out here is the Royals. They have their sights set on winning the Central but are still a bit behind to win the division and have basically no shot at a WC spot. The Twins, Guardians, and probably Tigers are ahead of them in most of the predictions. But the gap between #1 and #4 isn't as big as it is in most divisions. The Twins have lost some pieces and seem done, the Guardians rely heavily on pitching to win, and the Tigers are interesting but have lots of uncertainty. After rebuilding a rotation and signing a budding MVP candidate to a long contract extension, the Royals clearly sense that their window is opening.
Iglesias is the type of player that can push a team toward it's more optimistic projections and few teams stand to benefit from that more than KC. Pushing McArthur and old friend Will Smith down an inning shortens a game and reduces the handful of blown saves you might expect from a second year pitcher expected to close. If KC expects Smith to close then Iglesias is an even bigger upgrade.
The Royals don't have a lot of MLB ready impact prospects left to trade, but they have sufficient minors depth to interest the Braves. I particularly like Austin Charles, a 6'4" shortstop in low A who has a speed and power profile. He has some risk of moving off SS and needs lots of polish but some evaluators have him in the KC top 10 prospects and a fringe top 200 national prospect. Chandler Champlain is a more standard Braves target as a mid teens ranked prospect who seems to have hit a ceiling in KC's pitcher development pipeline. A big righty who has 4 good pitches and good control but hasn't translated them to whiffs. As a 1:1 or as part of a larger package for Iggy, this could work.
Now we have the formula for adding Montgomery to a Braves rotation. A contract with lots of deferrals + a trade of a luxury piece. The remaining work would be to get Montgomery to accept the contract. While AA doesn't give no-trade clauses, he might give opt outs. This is especially true for older pitchers who he tends to try and sign to 1-2 year contracts. Perhaps adding an optout after the second and 4th year might make sense. Luxury tax rules ignore optouts for tax purposes but letting Monty walk in his age 33 year isn't a travesty. This adds to the value of the contract for the player and downside risk to the team meaning additional clauses might be expected. Maybe link the optout to a team option at a higher present rate or failing to trigger the optout triggers team options for years 7 & 8? There are many ways to structure this around the margins.
This is all hypothetical of course. Unlike the real AA, I have no idea if the team would be interested in the 31yo lefty. After adding Sale and re-upping Morton, the rotation has lots of upside with even more injury risk. Further, Fried is likely leaving for FA after 2024 and probably looking for a contract not too different from that which I am proposing for Montgomery. So why go through all this effort when just extending Fried would accomplish most everything signing Montgomery will? The value is riding into the playoffs with a no doubt best 1-5 in the league and because Montgomery might actually sign while no extension for Fried has been worked out. Freddie Freeman can tell you how those things go.
TLDR: Braves could add Montgomery @ $150/6years with $75m deferred by trading Iglesias for interesting prospects.
Photo from here.

COPY/PASTE THE FOLLOWING FOR AUTO-FORMAT WITH BULLETS
Introduction
1) Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs?

• This will be my first time being the primary care taker for a dog. My family had several dogs throughout my life including dachshund mutt, pug mutt, boxer, boston terrier, great dane, miniature dachshund, australian shepherd, and blue heelebeagle mutt. I helped my parents train their most recent dog, the heeler beagle mutt.

2) Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a reputable breeder?

• I want to go through a reputable breeder so I can have a predictable temperament in a dog.

3) Describe your ideal dog.

• I want a dog who is loyal and affectionate, adventurous (will go on long walks and hikes with me). I want a dog who is eager to please and perform tricks/ do obedience training. I would be potentially interested in a dog who could participate in a dog sport like dock diving or flyball (just for fun, not super competitively) However, I don’t want a dog that is prone to separation anxiety as I work 8 hour work days (I will hire a trusted sitter to care for my puppy during the day while I am at work until they are old enough to withstand at least 4 hours alone so I can let them out on my lunch break)

4) What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why?

• I don’t have a specific breed in mind however I would prefer a dog between 20-50 pounds as I live in an apartment with a weight limit, but I am not a fan of small dogs. I prefer longer haired dogs than short haired as well.

5) What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?

• I want to train my dog basic and advanced obedience, as well as some impressive party tricks. I will take my dog on walks multiple times daily, and occasionally long hikes, so I will extensively leash train my dog.

6) Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?

• I have considered a sport like dock diving or flyball, but it would be just for fun, I would not be extremely competitive in it. I dont have any experience.

Care Commitments
7) How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?

• 2-3 hours of playing/training not including physical exercise

8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?

• 2+ hours of walking, as well as mental stimulation such as puzzles. I will not take my dog to a dog park due to lack of regulation. I worked at a dog daycare/boarding/grooming facility for 3 years and once my dog is old enough, I would take her there, because it is not free roam. At this specific daycare, there are separate smaller rooms of structured play groups with 4-8 dogs.

9) How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?

• I am willing to do daily brushing, and am willing to clean ears, do nail trims, etc. at home, but will leave hair cutting/trimming to a groomer however often necessary

Personal Preferences
10) What size dog are you looking for?

• Medium (20-50 pounds)

11) How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?

• I don’t mind shedding or slobber. I would not like a dog who barks a lot such as a beagle or basset, but some barking is okay.

12) How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?

• I do not intend on letting my dog off leash in a public area, especially where other dogs might be.

Dog Personality and Behavior
13) Would you prefer a snuggly dog or one who prefers personal space?

• Snuggly

14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?

• Eager to please

15) How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?

• I’d prefer my dog not to do any over the top/prolonged barking, and understand that this is part of my responsibility in desensitizing/training. I would prefer my dog to greet strangers affectionately when given the okay.

16) Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?

• No, I do not want a dog that is prone to dog aggression

17) Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?

• I want to avoid dogs prone to aggression, stubbornness, anxiety, and am well aware that this is mostly up to me in training and socializing my dog and am ready to take on the responsibility

Lifestyle
18) How often and how long will the dog be left alone?

• This would vary as my dog ages. As a puppy, it would not be left alone at all, but as an adult dog 4 hours at a time.

19) What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?

• I currently live alone, however if I were to search for a roommate it would be made very clear to them that I have a dog. I will be the care taker of this dog, and no one else will be primarily involved in raising it other than a sitter (or professional trainer if needed)

20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?

• Yes, I have 1 cat. She was raised around dogs and is used to them. This is why I prefer to get a puppy/very young dog from a reputable breeder, that way the dog can be raised around my cat.

21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?

• No

22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?

• Yes, 50 pounds.

23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?

• All bully breeds are banned in my city :(

24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?

• Summer: 70s Winter: 40s

Additional Information and Questions
25) Please provide any additional information you feel may be relevant.

• Financially, I am very able to provide this dog with anything it needs. I am very capable of paying for daily dog sitting, training, boarding/daycare, etc. which is why I am confident in getting a puppy rather than an older dog.

26) Feel free to ask any questions below.

EDIT: Thank you everyone for the information! And apologies for the long post! I was thinking that if I use the dogs breed questionnaire and fill it out, it would show more what I was looking for and my lifestyle to help see if I was suited haha 😅 Now I know better!
TLDR: Grew up with rotties & GSDs, currently own a bully/shepherd mix who is active and does 2 hour walks on the weekdays and 4 hour activities (walks, hikes, pack walks, agility, training) on the weekends but is not a fan of it really. Would love a dog who will do this and more (e.g. go on approx 20 mile bike rides once a week with me) and title, for fun, in Trick Dog (or other dog sports)/CGCs) Looking to see if an ESS will fit my lifestyle. Not the biggest fan of having to groom though.
Hello Everyone!
I'm currently starting to research on potential dog breeds for the future [think waaaayy in the future like 2027 - 2028]! I have some breeds in mind but would love to get more recommendations on appropriate breeds that may be a better fit for me or to knock some breeds of my list that you think won't fit at all!
**Introduction**

1. Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs?

* I grew up with dogs all my life. My family raised Rotties and German Shepherds but eventually we stopped and didn't have any dogs in the family for a long time till I got my current dog Kiwi in 2020. He, technically, is my first personal dog.
I am the primary caregiver of Kiwi and have trained him since I got him. He is also my first reactive dog [I know shocking since we had Rotties and German Shepherds lol]. With Kiwi being reactive [dog reactive, people he is indifferent to], I was forced to really learn how to train a dog. He is at a point now were every time I tell someone that Kiwi is reactive, they are shocked because he is so neutral and docile when they meet him haha. I'm very proud of the work I put into him and we are always training now because I found that I really love training dogs!!! He has all his CGC's and I am working on trying to get Trick Dog novice with him!
2) Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a [reputable breeder]( http://ownresponsibly.blogspot.com/2011/07/identifying-reputable-breeder.html
)?
* I'd rather go to a knowledgeable and reputable breeder.
3) Describe your ideal dog.
* I would love a dog who will get up and go do things with me! I would love for them to be mainly a companion dog who is willing and wanting to do occasional dog sports [agility and potentially flyball, barn hunt, FastCAT, or Trick Dog if they like it].
My current dog, Kiwi [age 8], is a rescue mix [all the bully breeds with some german shepherd in him] and he is pretty much my companion dog and close to my ideal dog. We do agility classes/hikes/training classes on the weekends and 1.5 to 2 hours walks on the weekdays. We also do long pack walks with other dogs 3 - 4 times a week. The thing I love about Kiwi is he is always willing to do these things with me but I can tell he would rather be at home haha.
When we do agility, he usually will lie down in the tunnel if he doesn't want to do agility anymore [he can be a pretty stubborn guy haha] so I am hoping for a dog who would love to be just as active or a bit more active than Kiwi.
I would also like it if the dog would run alongside me with my bike. Before Kiwi, I would go down to the beach on my bike once a week [Total: 22 miles; 12 miles back and forth]. When I got Kiwi, I had hoped he would be wanting to do this with me but he was not a fan. I like to say he is a walker, not a runner. He enjoys life slowly while I just wanna go, go, go haha
4) What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why?
* So far, the breeds I have been looking at have been Dalmatians, Parson Russell Terriers, maybe some herding dogs (medium - high energy but probably not border collies, unless you think otherwise, because I have heard people say that they are one of the toughest breeds to own, them and Malinois' haha), some gun dogs like GSP's, Brittany, or English Springer Spaniel [field type]. I will list down below, though, the dogs I have been looking at the most so far and their "why's" just to keep this short [But please add more to the list if you think they would work well with my lifestyle, or tell me if these breeds are wrong for me]:
Dalmatians [LUA preferred] - I love the energy of the dalmatian! I am interested in their coaching ability because I like to ride my bike for a while and would love a dog who naturally will run alongside me as we ride down to the beach and back without getting tired!
I also read that they tend to be aloof which I like! I want a dog who doesn't really need to go up and love every single stranger or dog we pass by. I'd rather they be neutral or not care about other people and animals and focus on enjoying the activities we do.
Parson Russell Terriers - I'm not the biggest fan of small dogs [prefer medium - large] but my friend owns a Parson who is so tenacious, smart, and active that I would make the exception for them. My friend's Parson is such a good hiking partner when we go out and he isn't afraid of anything! When we do agility practice on the weekend, his Parson is always raring to go! The spunk of this guy just makes me want to research more on the breed because I think they would make a great active partner who is also easy to carry if they ever get tired, which I doubt will ever happen haha
I will say, I do know that they have prey drive, which I don't mind at all. My dog, Kiwi, has quite the prey drive and I've been able to handle it pretty well!
English Springer Spaniel [Field] - So far, I don't know too much on them but they seem to be pretty active and friendly dogs. The one thing I am a bit averse to is the hair. I like short haired dogs because I don't have to groom them all too much [very "wash and go if there is dirt" is my style of dog]. Still interested, but would love to know more!
5) What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?
* I'd love to be able to train them enough to pass all CGC levels [STAR puppy, normal CGC, CGC A, and Urban CGC] at a minimum. After that, I want them to be able to get their trick dog novice (or more, if possible) and be willing to occasionally participate in dog sports for fun/casually.
So, training would be a bit more than just the basics.
6) Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?
* See above for the dog sports. I am at a novice level when it comes to dog sports but I really do love the bond that is formed when you do them with your dogs. [I find that Kiwi listens a bit more when we are doing our agility classes and is more loving after we finish a good run! I want to do more dog sports but I think for now we will stick to the fun world of agility!]
**Care Commitments**
7) How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?
* I got all the time in the world for my guy and the same will be true for the future dog. Even while I work at my desk, I am constantly throwing the ball for my guy so he is never bored haha
8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?
* See above for the typical exercise I do with my dog, but, to reiterate, I usually do about 2 hours of walking every weekday with my guy [not including training or play time or walks with other dogs]. On the weekends we will be out for 4 - 5 hours doing either agility classes, training classes, hikes, or big pack walks/hikes with other people that I am in a dog club with. I do not do dog parks, imo they are a breeding ground for dog fights. I socialize my guy through pack walks with other dogs or play dates with dogs he knows and has the same play style as.
9) How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?
* ehhh...not a lot to be honest. I like shorter haired dogs because I don't got to brush them all that much. I can wipe away water of my guy and he will be dry in like 5 minutes and be ready to go with no matts or tangles on his coat.
I'm open to cleaning ears, trimming nails, and trimming the occasional hair like in the sanitation areas or between the paws. I already do that much for Kiwi now.
**Personal Preferences**
10) What size dog are you looking for?
* Love medium to large size dogs [max 24-26" at the withers]! Will make an exception for a small dog that is very active and spunky [but not needy].
11) How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?
* I'm fine with shedding. Kiwi sheds like a Christmas tree, I'm finding his hair everywhere lol. The one thing I really don't want to do is take them to the groomer constantly.
Slobber is a no go; can't stand it. It's cute when other dogs do it, but not for my own dog lol
I'm okay with the occasional bark [My guy basically only barks if he hears other dogs barking but I can handle that]. Not the biggest fan of hour long bark sessions though. So medium barking basically.
12) How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?
* I'd love to be able to do it, especially if I want to bike with them, but it isn't a necessity. I keep kiwi on a long line when we hike because his prey drive would get him lost.
So, I'd love it but not necessary.
**Dog Personality and Behavior**
13) Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space?
* Fine with both.
14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?
* I would love a dog who is more eager to please but if I end up with an independent dog, I'm fine with it. Kiwi is definitely an in-between of the two dynamics and it works out okay.
So prefer eager to please, but okay with independence and stubbornness if it rears its heads.
15) How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?
* Neutrality would be what I prefer for everything [or aloofness/being uninterested in strangers, visitors or dogs]
If someone knocks, they can be intrigued but must know the place command and wait till I release them to come and greet someone who comes through my doors.
16) Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?
* I'd prefer not to want to deal with it since I already deal with it with Kiwi [though not as much anymore] but it's not a negative for me if the dog is reactive or aggressive to other dogs [it's all in how you handle it and get ahead of it really. I train around reactive dogs all the time now and sometimes walk in a reactive dogs support group, so kind of used to the techniques to help with it and I have a community to lean on if I ever need help.]
All dogs deserve a chance because, imo, there is no such thing as a bad dog, we just need to understand their thesholds and work within their means.
17) Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?
* Escaping enclosures and destroying stuff in the home is what I can't accommodate but that really can be prevented with mental stimulation, training, and exercise to fight against the boredom.
**Lifestyle**
18) How often and how long will the dog be left alone?
* I WFH all week except for either Monday or Wednesday. On either of those days, I go to San Diego for work so I'm gone from 5AM till about 5:30 AM. So, they will pretty much always be around me 24/7 except for one day out of the week when I go to SD.
19) What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?
* Currently, I live at home with the folks though used to rent before moving back in. I plan to move back out and probably rent in 2025 or 2026 when I've saved enough. I plan to only get this dog when I am out of my folk's place [don't want to encroach too much]. So, I will be living alone and I will be the one responsible for taking care of the dog.
20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?
* Have 1 dog: Kiwi, 8 years old, bully/german shepherd mix, male, medium sized [55 lbs].
21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?
* Not all the time. Currently where I live, we have people over all the time who vary from young and old. I'd love a dog who can handle that or know to self-regulate and leave the room when it gets too much [Kiwi pretty much is always neutral with folks (neither excited or upset when they come over) and will leave to do his own thing if the children who come over get too much].
Once I move out, it will be a lot more infrequent but occasionally a child may come over because I got friends/family with kids.
22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?
* See above on planning to rent/living situation. No breed restrictions, to be honest. I always plan and look for apartments or houses for rent that do not have any weight and breed restrictions if I'm moving somewhere. It's tough but not so tough that I can't find a place.
23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?
* Live in Southern California. I don't think we have any breed laws.
24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?
* Typical Summer: average is between high 80's in the day to low 60's at night. Can get up to 90's or more though on the right day.
Typical winter: low 80's - low 60's during the day and like high 40's at night

Hello Everyone!
I'm currently starting to research on potential dog breeds for the future [think waaaayy in the future like 2027 - 2028]! I have some breeds in mind but would love to get more recommendations on appropriate breeds that may be a better fit for me or to knock some breeds of my list that you think won't fit at all!
**Introduction**

1. Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs?

* I grew up with dogs all my life. My family raised Rotties and German Shepherds but eventually we stopped and didn't have any dogs in the family for a long time till I got my current dog Kiwi in 2020. He, technically, is my first personal dog.
I am the primary caregiver of Kiwi and have trained him since I got him. He is also my first reactive dog [I know shocking since we had Rotties and German Shepherds lol]. With Kiwi being reactive [dog reactive, people he is indifferent to], I was forced to really learn how to train a dog. He is at a point now were every time I tell someone that Kiwi is reactive, they are shocked because he is so neutral and docile when they meet him haha. I'm very proud of the work I put into him and we are always training now because I found that I really love training dogs!!! He has all his CGC's and I am working on trying to get Trick Dog novice with him!
2) Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a [reputable breeder]( http://ownresponsibly.blogspot.com/2011/07/identifying-reputable-breeder.html
)?
* I'd rather go to a knowledgeable and reputable breeder.
3) Describe your ideal dog.
* I would love a dog who will get up and go do things with me! I would love for them to be mainly a companion dog who is willing and wanting to do occasional dog sports [agility and potentially flyball, barn hunt, FastCAT, or Trick Dog if they like it].
My current dog, Kiwi [age 8], is a rescue mix [all the bully breeds with some german shepherd in him] and he is pretty much my companion dog and close to my ideal dog. We do agility classes/hikes/training classes on the weekends and 1.5 to 2 hours walks on the weekdays. We also do long pack walks with other dogs 3 - 4 times a week. The thing I love about Kiwi is he is always willing to do these things with me but I can tell he would rather be at home haha.
When we do agility, he usually will lie down in the tunnel if he doesn't want to do agility anymore [he can be a pretty stubborn guy haha] so I am hoping for a dog who would love to be just as active or a bit more active than Kiwi.
I would also like it if the dog would run alongside me with my bike. Before Kiwi, I would go down to the beach on my bike once a week [Total: 22 miles; 12 miles back and forth]. When I got Kiwi, I had hoped he would be wanting to do this with me but he was not a fan. I like to say he is a walker, not a runner. He enjoys life slowly while I just wanna go, go, go haha
4) What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why?
* So far, the breeds I have been looking at have been Dalmatians, Parson Russell Terriers, maybe some herding dogs (medium - high energy but probably not border collies, unless you think otherwise, because I have heard people say that they are one of the toughest breeds to own, them and Malinois' haha), some gun dogs like GSP's, Brittany, or English Springer Spaniel [field type]. I will list down below, though, the dogs I have been looking at the most so far and their "why's" just to keep this short [But please add more to the list if you think they would work well with my lifestyle, or tell me if these breeds are wrong for me]:
Dalmatians [LUA preferred] - I love the energy of the dalmatian! I am interested in their coaching ability because I like to ride my bike for a while and would love a dog who naturally will run alongside me as we ride down to the beach and back without getting tired!
I also read that they tend to be aloof which I like! I want a dog who doesn't really need to go up and love every single stranger or dog we pass by. I'd rather they be neutral or not care about other people and animals and focus on enjoying the activities we do.
Parson Russell Terriers - I'm not the biggest fan of small dogs [prefer medium - large] but my friend owns a Parson who is so tenacious, smart, and active that I would make the exception for them. My friend's Parson is such a good hiking partner when we go out and he isn't afraid of anything! When we do agility practice on the weekend, his Parson is always raring to go! The spunk of this guy just makes me want to research more on the breed because I think they would make a great active partner who is also easy to carry if they ever get tired, which I doubt will ever happen haha
I will say, I do know that they have prey drive, which I don't mind at all. My dog, Kiwi, has quite the prey drive and I've been able to handle it pretty well!
English Springer Spaniel [Field] - So far, I don't know too much on them but they seem to be pretty active and friendly dogs. The one thing I am a bit averse to is the hair. I like short haired dogs because I don't have to groom them all too much [very "wash and go if there is dirt" is my style of dog]. Still interested, but would love to know more!
5) What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?
* I'd love to be able to train them enough to pass all CGC levels [STAR puppy, normal CGC, CGC A, and Urban CGC] at a minimum. After that, I want them to be able to get their trick dog novice (or more, if possible) and be willing to occasionally participate in dog sports for fun/casually.
So, training would be a bit more than just the basics.
6) Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?
* See above for the dog sports. I am at a novice level when it comes to dog sports but I really do love the bond that is formed when you do them with your dogs. [I find that Kiwi listens a bit more when we are doing our agility classes and is more loving after we finish a good run! I want to do more dog sports but I think for now we will stick to the fun world of agility!]
**Care Commitments**
7) How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?
* I got all the time in the world for my guy and the same will be true for the future dog. Even while I work at my desk, I am constantly throwing the ball for my guy so he is never bored haha
8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?
* See above for the typical exercise I do with my dog, but, to reiterate, I usually do about 2 hours of walking every weekday with my guy [not including training or play time or walks with other dogs]. On the weekends we will be out for 4 - 5 hours doing either agility classes, training classes, hikes, or big pack walks/hikes with other people that I am in a dog club with. I do not do dog parks, imo they are a breeding ground for dog fights. I socialize my guy through pack walks with other dogs or play dates with dogs he knows and has the same play style as.
9) How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?
* ehhh...not a lot to be honest. I like shorter haired dogs because I don't got to brush them all that much. I can wipe away water of my guy and he will be dry in like 5 minutes and be ready to go with no matts or tangles on his coat.
I'm open to cleaning ears, trimming nails, and trimming the occasional hair like in the sanitation areas or between the paws. I already do that much for Kiwi now.
**Personal Preferences**
10) What size dog are you looking for?
* Love medium to large size dogs [max 24-26" at the withers]! Will make an exception for a small dog that is very active and spunky [but not needy].
11) How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?
* I'm fine with shedding. Kiwi sheds like a Christmas tree, I'm finding his hair everywhere lol. The one thing I really don't want to do is take them to the groomer constantly.
Slobber is a no go; can't stand it. It's cute when other dogs do it, but not for my own dog lol
I'm okay with the occasional bark [My guy basically only barks if he hears other dogs barking but I can handle that]. Not the biggest fan of hour long bark sessions though. So medium barking basically.
12) How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?
* I'd love to be able to do it, especially if I want to bike with them, but it isn't a necessity. I keep kiwi on a long line when we hike because his prey drive would get him lost.
So, I'd love it but not necessary.
**Dog Personality and Behavior**
13) Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space?
* Fine with both.
14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?
* I would love a dog who is more eager to please but if I end up with an independent dog, I'm fine with it. Kiwi is definitely an in-between of the two dynamics and it works out okay.
So prefer eager to please, but okay with independence and stubbornness if it rears its heads.
15) How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?
* Neutrality would be what I prefer for everything [or aloofness/being uninterested in strangers, visitors or dogs]
If someone knocks, they can be intrigued but must know the place command and wait till I release them to come and greet someone who comes through my doors.
16) Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?
* I'd prefer not to want to deal with it since I already deal with it with Kiwi [though not as much anymore] but it's not a negative for me if the dog is reactive or aggressive to other dogs [it's all in how you handle it and get ahead of it really. I train around reactive dogs all the time now and sometimes walk in a reactive dogs support group, so kind of used to the techniques to help with it and I have a community to lean on if I ever need help.]
All dogs deserve a chance because, imo, there is no such thing as a bad dog, we just need to understand their thesholds and work within their means.
17) Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?
* Escaping enclosures and destroying stuff in the home is what I can't accommodate but that really can be prevented with mental stimulation, training, and exercise to fight against the boredom.
**Lifestyle**
18) How often and how long will the dog be left alone?
* I WFH all week except for either Monday or Wednesday. On either of those days, I go to San Diego for work so I'm gone from 5AM till about 5:30 AM. So, they will pretty much always be around me 24/7 except for one day out of the week when I go to SD.
19) What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?
* Currently, I live at home with the folks though used to rent before moving back in. I plan to move back out and probably rent in 2025 or 2026 when I've saved enough. I plan to only get this dog when I am out of my folk's place [don't want to encroach too much]. So, I will be living alone and I will be the one responsible for taking care of the dog.
20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?
* Have 1 dog: Kiwi, 8 years old, bully/german shepherd mix, male, medium sized [55 lbs].
21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?
* Not all the time. Currently where I live, we have people over all the time who vary from young and old. I'd love a dog who can handle that or know to self-regulate and leave the room when it gets too much [Kiwi pretty much is always neutral with folks (neither excited or upset when they come over) and will leave to do his own thing if the children who come over get too much].
Once I move out, it will be a lot more infrequent but occasionally a child may come over because I got friends/family with kids.
22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?
* See above on planning to rent/living situation. No breed restrictions, to be honest. I always plan and look for apartments or houses for rent that do not have any weight and breed restrictions if I'm moving somewhere. It's tough but not so tough that I can't find a place.
23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?
* Live in Southern California. I don't think we have any breed laws.
24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?
* Typical Summer: average is between high 80's in the day to low 60's at night. Can get up to 90's or more though on the right day.
Typical winter: low 80's - low 60's during the day and like high 40's at night

Hello Everyone!
I'm currently starting to research on potential dog breeds for the future [think waaaayy in the future like 2027 - 2028]! I have some breeds in mind but would love to get more recommendations on appropriate breeds that may be a better fit for me or to knock some breeds of my list that you think won't fit at all!
**Introduction**

1. Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs?

* I grew up with dogs all my life. My family raised Rotties and German Shepherds but eventually we stopped and didn't have any dogs in the family for a long time till I got my current dog Kiwi in 2020. He, technically, is my first personal dog.
I am the primary caregiver of Kiwi and have trained him since I got him. He is also my first reactive dog [I know shocking since we had Rotties and German Shepherds lol]. With Kiwi being reactive [dog reactive, people he is indifferent to], I was forced to really learn how to train a dog. He is at a point now were every time I tell someone that Kiwi is reactive, they are shocked because he is so neutral and docile when they meet him haha. I'm very proud of the work I put into him and we are always training now because I found that I really love training dogs!!! He has all his CGC's and I am working on trying to get Trick Dog novice with him!
2) Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a [reputable breeder]( http://ownresponsibly.blogspot.com/2011/07/identifying-reputable-breeder.html
)?
* I'd rather go to a knowledgeable and reputable breeder.
3) Describe your ideal dog.
* I would love a dog who will get up and go do things with me! I would love for them to be mainly a companion dog who is willing and wanting to do occasional dog sports [agility and potentially flyball, barn hunt, FastCAT, or Trick Dog if they like it].
My current dog, Kiwi [age 8], is a rescue mix [all the bully breeds with some german shepherd in him] and he is pretty much my companion dog and close to my ideal dog. We do agility classes/hikes/training classes on the weekends and 1.5 to 2 hours walks on the weekdays. We also do long pack walks with other dogs 3 - 4 times a week. The thing I love about Kiwi is he is always willing to do these things with me but I can tell he would rather be at home haha.
When we do agility, he usually will lie down in the tunnel if he doesn't want to do agility anymore [he can be a pretty stubborn guy haha] so I am hoping for a dog who would love to be just as active or a bit more active than Kiwi.
I would also like it if the dog would run alongside me with my bike. Before Kiwi, I would go down to the beach on my bike once a week [Total: 22 miles; 12 miles back and forth]. When I got Kiwi, I had hoped he would be wanting to do this with me but he was not a fan. I like to say he is a walker, not a runner. He enjoys life slowly while I just wanna go, go, go haha
4) What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why?
* So far, the breeds I have been looking at have been Dalmatians, Parson Russell Terriers, maybe some herding dogs (medium - high energy but probably not border collies, unless you think otherwise, because I have heard people say that they are one of the toughest breeds to own, them and Malinois' haha), some gun dogs like GSP's, Brittany, or English Springer Spaniel [field type]. I will list down below, though, the dogs I have been looking at the most so far and their "why's" just to keep this short [But please add more to the list if you think they would work well with my lifestyle, or tell me if these breeds are wrong for me]:
Dalmatians [LUA preferred] - I love the energy of the dalmatian! I am interested in their coaching ability because I like to ride my bike for a while and would love a dog who naturally will run alongside me as we ride down to the beach and back without getting tired!
I also read that they tend to be aloof which I like! I want a dog who doesn't really need to go up and love every single stranger or dog we pass by. I'd rather they be neutral or not care about other people and animals and focus on enjoying the activities we do.
Parson Russell Terriers - I'm not the biggest fan of small dogs [prefer medium - large] but my friend owns a Parson who is so tenacious, smart, and active that I would make the exception for them. My friend's Parson is such a good hiking partner when we go out and he isn't afraid of anything! When we do agility practice on the weekend, his Parson is always raring to go! The spunk of this guy just makes me want to research more on the breed because I think they would make a great active partner who is also easy to carry if they ever get tired, which I doubt will ever happen haha
I will say, I do know that they have prey drive, which I don't mind at all. My dog, Kiwi, has quite the prey drive and I've been able to handle it pretty well!
English Springer Spaniel [Field] - So far, I don't know too much on them but they seem to be pretty active and friendly dogs. The one thing I am a bit averse to is the hair. I like short haired dogs because I don't have to groom them all too much [very "wash and go if there is dirt" is my style of dog]. Still interested, but would love to know more!
5) What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?
* I'd love to be able to train them enough to pass all CGC levels [STAR puppy, normal CGC, CGC A, and Urban CGC] at a minimum. After that, I want them to be able to get their trick dog novice (or more, if possible) and be willing to occasionally participate in dog sports for fun/casually.
So, training would be a bit more than just the basics.
6) Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?
* See above for the dog sports. I am at a novice level when it comes to dog sports but I really do love the bond that is formed when you do them with your dogs. [I find that Kiwi listens a bit more when we are doing our agility classes and is more loving after we finish a good run! I want to do more dog sports but I think for now we will stick to the fun world of agility!]
**Care Commitments**
7) How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?
* I got all the time in the world for my guy and the same will be true for the future dog. Even while I work at my desk, I am constantly throwing the ball for my guy so he is never bored haha
8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?
* See above for the typical exercise I do with my dog, but, to reiterate, I usually do about 2 hours of walking every weekday with my guy [not including training or play time or walks with other dogs]. On the weekends we will be out for 4 - 5 hours doing either agility classes, training classes, hikes, or big pack walks/hikes with other people that I am in a dog club with. I do not do dog parks, imo they are a breeding ground for dog fights. I socialize my guy through pack walks with other dogs or play dates with dogs he knows and has the same play style as.
9) How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?
* ehhh...not a lot to be honest. I like shorter haired dogs because I don't got to brush them all that much. I can wipe away water of my guy and he will be dry in like 5 minutes and be ready to go with no matts or tangles on his coat.
I'm open to cleaning ears, trimming nails, and trimming the occasional hair like in the sanitation areas or between the paws. I already do that much for Kiwi now.
**Personal Preferences**
10) What size dog are you looking for?
* Love medium to large size dogs [max 24-26" at the withers]! Will make an exception for a small dog that is very active and spunky [but not needy].
11) How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?
* I'm fine with shedding. Kiwi sheds like a Christmas tree, I'm finding his hair everywhere lol. The one thing I really don't want to do is take them to the groomer constantly.
Slobber is a no go; can't stand it. It's cute when other dogs do it, but not for my own dog lol
I'm okay with the occasional bark [My guy basically only barks if he hears other dogs barking but I can handle that]. Not the biggest fan of hour long bark sessions though. So medium barking basically.
12) How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?
* I'd love to be able to do it, especially if I want to bike with them, but it isn't a necessity. I keep kiwi on a long line when we hike because his prey drive would get him lost.
So, I'd love it but not necessary.
**Dog Personality and Behavior**
13) Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space?
* Fine with both.
14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?
* I would love a dog who is more eager to please but if I end up with an independent dog, I'm fine with it. Kiwi is definitely an in-between of the two dynamics and it works out okay.
So prefer eager to please, but okay with independence and stubbornness if it rears its heads.
15) How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?
* Neutrality would be what I prefer for everything [or aloofness/being uninterested in strangers, visitors or dogs]
If someone knocks, they can be intrigued but must know the place command and wait till I release them to come and greet someone who comes through my doors.
16) Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?
* I'd prefer not to want to deal with it since I already deal with it with Kiwi [though not as much anymore] but it's not a negative for me if the dog is reactive or aggressive to other dogs [it's all in how you handle it and get ahead of it really. I train around reactive dogs all the time now and sometimes walk in a reactive dogs support group, so kind of used to the techniques to help with it and I have a community to lean on if I ever need help.]
All dogs deserve a chance because, imo, there is no such thing as a bad dog, we just need to understand their thesholds and work within their means.
17) Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?
* Escaping enclosures and destroying stuff in the home is what I can't accommodate but that really can be prevented with mental stimulation, training, and exercise to fight against the boredom.
**Lifestyle**
18) How often and how long will the dog be left alone?
* I WFH all week except for either Monday or Wednesday. On either of those days, I go to San Diego for work so I'm gone from 5AM till about 5:30 AM. So, they will pretty much always be around me 24/7 except for one day out of the week when I go to SD.
19) What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?
* Currently, I live at home with the folks though used to rent before moving back in. I plan to move back out and probably rent in 2025 or 2026 when I've saved enough. I plan to only get this dog when I am out of my folk's place [don't want to encroach too much]. So, I will be living alone and I will be the one responsible for taking care of the dog.
20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?
* Have 1 dog: Kiwi, 8 years old, bully/german shepherd mix, male, medium sized [55 lbs].
21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?
* Not all the time. Currently where I live, we have people over all the time who vary from young and old. I'd love a dog who can handle that or know to self-regulate and leave the room when it gets too much [Kiwi pretty much is always neutral with folks (neither excited or upset when they come over) and will leave to do his own thing if the children who come over get too much].
Once I move out, it will be a lot more infrequent but occasionally a child may come over because I got friends/family with kids.
22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?
* See above on planning to rent/living situation. No breed restrictions, to be honest. I always plan and look for apartments or houses for rent that do not have any weight and breed restrictions if I'm moving somewhere. It's tough but not so tough that I can't find a place.
23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?
* Live in Southern California. I don't think we have any breed laws.
24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?
* Typical Summer: average is between high 80's in the day to low 60's at night. Can get up to 90's or more though on the right day.
Typical winter: low 80's - low 60's during the day and like high 40's at night

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-106shrg79713/html/CHRG-106shrg79713.htm
National Football League, New York, NY, April 10, 2000
Hon. John McCain, Chairman, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Washington, DC.
Dear Senator McCain:
I write on behalf of the National Football League to comment on S. 2340, the ``Amateur Sports Integrity Act.'' We understand that the Commerce Committee will shortly move to mark up S. 2340, and respectfully request that this submission be incorporated into the hearing record. Specifically, we write to urge in the strongest possible terms that Title II of the bill be expanded to prohibit gambling not only on amateur sports, but on professional sports as well. Congress has not previously distinguished between gambling on amateur and professional games, and Congress should not do so now.
Title II would add a new section to the Ted Stevens Olympic and Amateur Sports Act (36 U.S.C. 220501 et seq.) to prohibit gambling on amateur athletic games. The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (28 U.S.C. 3701-3704) (``PASPA'') generally prohibited the states from legalizing gambling on professional and amateur sports, but it also grandfathered certain gambling that was authorized by state law at the time of enactment. The effect of Title II of S. 2340 would be to repeal this grandfather provision so far as gambling on amateur athletic games is concerned, and to prohibit gambling on amateur games as a matter of federal law. But Title II does not prohibit gambling on professional games and instead allows such gambling to continue to the extent grandfathered by PASPA. We respectfully disagree with the narrow scope of Title II.
The National Football League strongly supported enactment of PASPA in 1992. As Commissioner Tagliabue testified at the time, ``we do not want our games used as bait to sell gambling. Sports gambling should not be used as a cure for the sagging fortunes of Atlantic City casinos or to boost public interest in state lotteries. We should not gamble with our children's heroes.'' In his testimony, Commissioner Tagliabue documented the efforts taken by the League to prevent sports gambling or involvement with sports gambling by club owners, players, and anyone else connected with our games. These efforts continue. Moreover, the League currently supports, and is promoting the passage of, S. 692, the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999, sponsored by Senator Kyl, which would end the plague of Internet sports gambling that seeks to evade the prohibitions of PASPA and the Wire Act. Copies of our testimony in support of PASPA and S. 692 are enclosed. During the floor debate on PASPA, Senator Bradley spoke eloquently of the harms gambling inflicts on sports. Tellingly, he invoked his experiences as a professional player as well as invoking the college sports scandals of his younger days:
``Mr. President, where sports gambling occurs, I think fans cannot help but wonder if a missed free throw, or a dropped flyball, or a missed extra point was part of a player's scheme to fix the game. If sports betting spreads, more and more fans will question every coaching decision and every official's call. All of this puts undue pressure on players, coaches, and officials . . . [If sports gambling is legalized,] [s]ports would become the gamblers' game and not the fans' game, and athletes would become roulette chips. . . .
I remember one game in Madison Square Garden. Toward the end of the game, one of my teammates happened to throw the ball up. We were ahead 6 or 8 points, I forget which. He threw the ball up at the other end of the court and the ball went in the basket. The next week the press speculated about whether it was timed to beat the line on the game. . . . Earlier in my life, when I was in high school and college, there were major sports scandals. Sports-fixing scandals. But the state came in and said this is wrong, and vigorously prosecuted.'' 138 Cong. Rec. 12989-90 (1992). When Congress enacted PASPA, it made the judgment that the prohibition should not be applied retroactively to sports gambling operations that were already permitted by, and conducted pursuant to, state law. See S. Rep. No. 248, 102d Cong., 1st Sess. 8, 9-10 (1991). As the Judiciary Committee emphasized, however,all such sports gambling is harmful.'' Id. at 8. The decision to grandfather certain sports gambling from the prohibitions of the bill was based on other considerations. The League accepted that judgment at the time with great reluctance. As Commissioner Tagliabue stated:
``We have made it clear that we would support legislation that prohibited any and all forms of gambling. We also recognize that we live in a country, a great one, which operates by consensus, and that in order to take a step forward, we have to accept this form of legislation which contains a very narrow grandfather provision.'' \1 \1\ Prohibiting State-Sanctioned Sports Gambling: Hearing on S. 473 and S. 474 before the Subcomm. on Patents, Copyrights and Trademarks of the Senate Comm. on the Judiciary, 102d Cong., 1st Sess. 64 (1991).
If Congress is prepared to reconsider the judgment it made in 1992, that existing legal sports gambling should not be prohibited, there is no justification--moral, legal, or otherwise--for limiting such reconsideration to gambling on amateur sports. The harms that sports gambling inflicts, as detailed in the enclosed League testimony, impact professional sports no less than amateur sports. The harms it inflicts are just as real, and the cost to the integrity and reputation of our games, and to our values as a nation, are just as great. If anything, the harms inflicted on professional sports by gambling may be even greater than the harms inflicted on amateur sports because gambling on our games is more widespread. We have been fortunate during the last eight years that the NFL has not been scarred by the type of gambling scandals that have occurred in college sports. We have worked hard to educate and counsel our players, coaches and game officials regarding the dangers of sports gambling, and to take security measures to protect our employees from gambling influences. The NFL and other professional sports leagues should not now be denied the benefits of legislative action simply because we cannot point to any gambling incidents but college sports can. The ill effects of gambling apply equally to both college and pro sports. For all of these reasons, if Congress is now prepared to revisit the judgment it made in 1992, the NFL strongly urges that Title II be amended to extend its prohibition (and its repeal of PASPA's grandfather provision) to include gambling on professional sports. Sincerely, Jeffrey Pash, Executive Vice President.

 Attachment 1 

statement of paul tagliabue, commissioner, national football league before the subcommittee on patents, copyrights and trademarks, senate judiciary committee June 26, 1991
Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the Subcommittee. I am pleased to appear before you today to urge in the strongest possible terms your adoption of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (S. 474).
This important legislation builds on bills passed last year by the House and the Senate--though not by both--to prevent the spread of sports gambling. Like last year's bills, S. 474 would prohibit the states from establishing sports lotteries. Going beyond those bills, S. 474 would prohibit any other form of sports gambling authorized by state law based on professional or amateur games. Mr. Chairman, we do not want our games used as bait to sell gambling. Sports gambling should not be used as a cure for the sagging fortunes of Atlantic City casinos or to boost public interest in state lotteries. We should not gamble with our children's heroes. As I mentioned in my testimony before this Subcommittee last summer, I have been privileged to serve the National Football League for more than 20 years--first as outside counsel and now as Commissioner. In all this time, the League has vigorously protected its reputation for integrity and the wholesome character of its games. As the late Senator Kenneth B. Keating of New York said nearly 30 years ago in introducing the legislation codified in Title 18 that makes it a federal crime to fix or attempt to fix sporting contests:
Thousands of Americans earn a legitimate livelihood in professional sports. Tens of thousands of others participate in college sports as part of the physical fitness and character building programs of their schools. Tens of millions of Americans find sports a favorite form of recreation. We must do everything we can to keep sports clean so that the fans, and especially young people, can continue to have complete confidence in the honesty of the players and the contests. Scandals in the sporting world are big news and can have a devastating effect on the outlook of our youth to whom sports figures are heroes and idols.'' 109 Cong. Rec. 2,016 (1963). Thus, we strictly prohibit NFL club owners, coaches, players and anyone else connected with the NFL from gambling on NFL games or associating with persons involved in gambling. Anyone who does so faces severe disciplinary action by the Commissioner, up to lifetime suspension. Our League's Constitution also prohibits any NFL involvement with state lotteries. Our clubs cannot accept advertising revenue from lotteries, and coaches and players cannot appear in lottery ads or promotional events. We have advised the television networks that neither gambling-related commercials nor the dissemination of point-spread information are acceptable on NFL game broadcasts. Legalized sports gambling threatens all that we have worked for in this respect--and more. We oppose the spread of legalized sports gambling for four basic reasons. First, sports gambling threatens the character of team sports. Our games embody our very finest traditions and values. They stand for clean, healthy competition. They stand for teamwork. And they stand for success through preparation and honest effort. With legalized sports gambling, our games instead will come to represent the fast buck, the quick fix, the desire to get something for nothing. The spread of legalized sports gambling would change forever--and for the worse--what our games stand for and the way they are perceived. Second, sports gambling threatens the integrity of, and public confidence in, team sports. Sports lotteries inevitably foster a climate of suspicion about controversial plays and intensify cynicism with respect to player performances, coaching decisions, officiating calls and game results. Cynical or disappointed fans would come to assume the fix was in'' whenever the team they bet on failed to beat the point spread. And legalized sports gambling involving head-to-head betting threatens more than just public confidence in the integrity of our games. Its proliferation would appear to athletes to give official sanction to sports gambling and could threaten actual corruption of the games by undermining the ability of professional and amateur sports organizations to police themselves. Third, legalized sports gambling sends a terrible message to youth. Sports are very important to millions of our young people. Youth look up to athletes. Our players cannot be expected to serve as healthy role models for youth if they are made to function as participants in gambling enterprises. Legalized sports gambling also sends a regrettable message to our young people about government--thatanything goes'' when it comes to raising revenues or bolstering local economies, and that we might as well legalize, sponsor and promote any activity so that the state can get its cut.'' This is a message we can ill afford to send. Finally--and perhaps worst of all--legalized sports gambling would promote gambling among young people. Dr. Valerie Lorenz of the National Center for Pathological Gambling recently told Time (Feb. 25) that the rise in teenage gambling is linked to the spread of state lotteries generally:The message they're conveying is that gambling is not a vice but a normal form of entertainment.'' That negative message would certainly be sent by a state lottery based on team sports. And, as Dr. Lorenz has written, a sports lotterynot only teaches youngsters how to bet on football pools, but also encourages them to do so.'' \1\ What is true in this regard for sports lotteries would be even truer for casino-style sports gambling.\2\
\1\ Lorenz, ``State Lotteries and Compulsive Gambling,'' Journal of Gambling Studies, vol. 6, p. 392-93 (1990). \2\ For the reasons discussed by Professor Arthur R. Miller of the Harvard Law School in his testimony last summer, state-sponsored sports betting also misappropriates the goodwill and popularity of professional sports and amateur sports organizations and dilutes and tarnishes the service marks of such organizations. See Legislation Prohibiting Sports Lotteries from Misappropriating Professional Sports Service Marks: Hearing on S. 1772 before the Subcomm. on Patents, Copyrights and Trademarks of the Senate Comm. on the the Judiciary, 101st Cong., 2d Sess. 251 (1990). It bears repeating that the NFL has no desire to license or conduct our own gambling operations. In any event, S. 474 would invalidate any state law that purportedly authorized us to conduct such operations. Mr. Chairman, no one opposes your legislation on the ground that sports gambling is socially beneficial and should be encouraged. The principal argument advanced in opposition to the legislation is that federal action in this area is inappropriate and that the states should be left to decide for themselves whether to sponsor or allow sports gambling. Whatever superficial appeal it may have, this federalism argument is without substance.
Team sports are a national pastime. Sports gambling is a national problem and demands a national solution. The harms it inflicts are felt beyond the borders of those states that sanction it. The moral erosion it produces cannot be limited geographically. Once a state legalizes sports gambling, it will be extremely difficult for other states to resist the lure. The current pressures in such places as California and New Jersey to institute casino-style sports gambling illustrate the point. Since Oregon instituted its sports lottery two years ago, proposals for similar lotteries have surfaced in a number of other states.
We are not unsympathetic to the fiscal concerns that have motivated sports lottery and casino-style sports gambling proposals in some places. But those concerns cannot justify the great long-range harm to our sport and others such proposals would entail--and to a generation of young people whose attitudes toward team sports would be distorted and diminished by perpetuating a gambling-oriented outlook. Nor should Congress be misled by claims that legalization of sports gambling would reduce illegal sports gambling in a state. According to the Director of New Jersey's Division of Gaming Enforcement, most law enforcement professionals agree that legalization has a negligible impact on, and in some ways enhances, illegal markets.'' \3\ Illegal entrepreneurs can alwaysoutmarket'' their legitimate counterparts, offering better odds and, most important, tax-free winnings.
\3\Anthony J. Parillo, Proposal To Consolidate All Legalized Gaming Enforcement Functions within a Single Agency of the Department of Law & Safety, June 20, 1988, p. 188.
S. 474 breaks no new philosophical ground. It presents no new issue
of state prerogatives. Congress has previously recognized on several occasions that gambling has no place in sports, professional or amateur. Title 18 of the United States Code contains a specific federal policy against state sports gambling. When Congress acted in 1974 to exempt state lotteries from the prohibitions of the federal lottery and gambling laws generally, it specified that those prohibitions would continue to apply to state sports lotteries--i.e., lotteries that involve the placing or accepting of bets or wagers on sporting events or contests.'' 18 U.S.C. Sec. 1307(d). As the House Judiciary Committee explained, the exemptions of Sec. 1307 were not intended to apply indiscriminately to allgambling activities conducted by [a] state.'' H.R. Rep. No. 1517, 93d Cong., 2d Sess. 6-7 (1974). Beyond the federal lottery and gambling laws, Congress has legislated to protect the integrity of professional sports contests. In 1964, Congress made it a federal crime under Title 18 to influence or attempt to influence by bribery any sporting contest. 18 U.S.C. Sec. 224. The offense is punishable by a fine of up to $10,000 or imprisonment of up to five years, or both. This is not merely an assimilative offense''--conduct that is criminal under federal law because it is criminal under state law. Congress has recognized a distinct federal interest in protecting sports from corruption. The House Judiciary Committee called such corruptiona challenge to an important aspect of American life--honestly competitive sports.'' \4\
\4\ H.R. Rep. No. 1053, 88th Cong., 1st Sess. 2 (1963) (also noting federal interest in ensuring the integrity of sporting contests even where states decline to act); S. Rep. No. 593, 88th Cong., 1st Sess. 3- 4 (1963) (same).
In addition, Congress and the courts have recognized the need for uniform national rules in dealing with professional and intercollegiate sports. Congress, for example, has enacted legislation that, among other things, limits the extent to which the NFL can televise games in conflict with high school and college sporting events. 15 U.S.C. Sec. Sec. 1291-1294. And numerous courts have held that it is inappropriate to apply varying state laws and regulations to the nationwide business of professional sports. See, e.g., Flood v. Kuhn, 407 U.S. 258, 284-85 (1972); Partee v. San Diego Chargers, 34 Cal. 3d 378 (1983). This same interest in national uniformity supports congressional action with respect to the current issue. The alternatives to congressional action are unattractive and uncertain--and there is no reason why professional or amateur sports organizations should be forced to resort to them in view of the federal and nationwide interests at stake here and the interstate character of the affected sports organizations. Congress cannot afford to delay dealing with the problem of state- sanctioned sports gambling. At the moment, the problem is basically confined to Oregon and Nevada. If any significant number of other states should follow their example, it will be far more difficult for Congress to remedy the problem. The NFL applauds you, Mr. Chairman, and Senators Hatch, Bradley, Specter and the other co-sponsors of this bill, for assuming leadership in Congress on this issue of great public importance. We hope that S. 474 will proceed promptly to markup and be sent to the floor for an early vote. I would be glad to answer any questions.
Attachment 2 statement of jeff pash, executive vice president, national football league before the subcommittee on technology, terrorism and government information, senate committee on the judiciary March 23, 1999
Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee. My name is Jeff Pash. I am the Executive Vice-President and General Counsel of the National Football League. I appreciate the opportunity appear before you today to express the NFL's strong support for the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999. We strongly support this bill because it would strengthen and extend existing prohibitions on gambling, including gambling on sports events, and provide enhanced enforcement tools tailored to the unique issues presented by Internet gambling. We join the State Attorneys General who testified earlier and other sports leagues in urging adoption of this important legislation.
Simply put, gambling and sports do not mix. Sports gambling threatens the integrity of our games and all the values our games represent--especially to young people. For this reason, the NFL has established strict policies relative to gambling in general and sports betting in particular. The League prohibits NFL club owners, coaches, players and anyone else connected with the NFL from gambling on NFL games or associating in any way with persons involved in gambling. Anyone who does so faces severe disciplinary action by the Commissioner, including lifetime suspension. We have posted our anti- gambling rules in every stadium locker room and have shared those rules with every player and every other individual associated with the NFL.
The League has also sought to limit references to sports betting or gambling that in any way are connected to our games. For example, we have informed the major television networks that we regard sports gambling commercials and the dissemination of wagering information as inappropriate and unacceptable during football game telecasts Commissioner Tagliabue reemphasized this January that gambling and participation in the NFL are incompatible. In a restatement of our policies, the Commissioner reiterated that no NFL club owner, officer or employee may own any interest in any gambling casino, whether or not the casino operates a `sports book'' or otherwise accepts wagering on sports. The Commissioner specifically stated that no club owner, officer or employee may own, directly or indirectly, or operate anyon-line,' computer-based, telephone, or Internet gambling service, whether or not such a service accepts wagering on sports. (Ex. A).*
For Exhibits A-E, see Senate Hearing 106-170, Hearing on Internet
Gambling, Senate Judiciary Committee, March 23, 1999; pp. 27-53. The League has been a strong proponent of federal efforts to combat sports gambling. We strongly supported the passage of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (28 U.S.C. 3701 et seq.). This 1992 legislation, known as PASPA, prohibits the states from legalizing sports betting. The League also worked to promote the passage of the Chairman's Internet gambling legislation in the last Congress. Like PASPA, the proposed legislation is a logical and appropriate extension of existing federal law and policy. The precedents for federal action in this area were well canvassed by the full Judiciary Committee in its report accompanying the 1992 legislation (S. Rep. No. 248, 102d Cong., 1st Sess. 5-8 (1991)).
The Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999 is a necessary and appropriate federal response to a growing problem that, as the States Attorneys General have testified, no collection of states can adequately address on an individual basis. Ten years ago, a gambler might have used the telephone to call his bookie. Today, he simply logs on. Gambling businesses around the country--and around the world--have turned to the Internet in an obvious attempt to circumvent the existing prohibitions on gambling contained in the Wire Act and PASPA. Many offshore gambling businesses provide betting opportunities over the Internet, effectively beyond the reach of federal and state law enforcement authorities.
The bill is needed because it updates our laws to reflect new technology. In its report accompanying the PASPA legislation eight years ago, the Judiciary Committee noted the growth of new technologies'' facilitating gambling, including the use of automatic teller machines to sell lottery tickets, and proposals to allowvideo gambling'' at home. S. Rep. No. 248, supra, at 5. It was, in significant part, the specter or expanded gambling raised by those new technologies'' that spurred Congress to enact PASPA. In those days, thenew technologies'' did not yet include the Internet. That day, however, has now come.
The problem of Internet gambling is significant--and growing. According to recent publications, the Justice Department has estimated that Internet gambling generated $600 million in revenue in 1997 alone. (Ex. B).* A recent cover story in USA Today predicts that Internet betting will grow to $2.3 billion by 2001. (Ex. C).* And an article by Professor Goldsmith in The International Lawyer reports that some experts expect Internet gambling revenue to grow even faster, up to $10 billion by the year 2000. (Ex. D).* Internet gambling is so successful largely because so little effort is required to participate. Unlike traditional casinos, which require gamblers to travel to the casino and place their bets on-site, Internet gambling allows bettors to access on-line wagering facilities twenty- four hours per day, seven days a week. Gamblers can avoid the hassle and expense of traveling to a casino, which in many parts of the country requires out-of-state travel. Internet gamblers also can avoid the stigma that may be attached to gambling in public on a regular basis. Internet gambling sites are easily accessible and offer a wide range of gambling opportunities from all over the world. Any personal computer can be turned into an unregulated casino where Americans can lose their life savings with the mere click of a mouse. Many of these gambling web sites have been designed to resemble video games, and therefore are especially attractive to children. But gambling--even on the Internet--is not a game. Studies have shown that sports betting is a growing problem for high school and college students, who develop serious addictions to other forms of gambling as a result of being introduced to ``harmless'' sports wagering.
As the Internet reaches more and more college students and schoolchildren, the rate of Internet gambling among young people is certain to rise. Because no one currently stands between Internet casinos and their gamblers to check identification, our children will have the ability to gamble on the family computer after school, or even in the schools themselves. And we must not be lulled by the paper tiger set up by proponents of Internet gambling--that children cannot access gambling web sites because they lack credit cards. It does not take much effort for a child to ``borrow'' one of his or her parents' credit cards for the few minutes necessary to copy down the credit card number and use it to access an Internet gambling service. The problems connected with Internet gambling transcend the NFL's concerns about protecting the integrity of professional sports and the values they represent. According to experts on compulsive or addictive gambling, access to Internet sports wagering dramatically increases the risk that people will become active, pathological gamblers. The National Council on Problem Gambling has reported that sports betting is among the most popular form of gambling for compulsive gamblers in the United States. That means that once individuals become exposed to sports betting, there is a real problem with recurrent and uncontrollable gambling. Conducting a gambling business using the Internet is illegal under the Wire Act (18 U.S.C. Sec. 1084) and indeed has been prosecuted--for example, in the case brought against six Internet sports betting companies last March by federal authorities in the Southern District of New York (Ex. E).* But as the prosecutors in that case plainly recognized, asserting jurisdiction over offshore gambling businesses that use the Internet can be problematic. More significantly, the Wire Act does not include direct mechanisms for ensuring termination by Internet service providers of access to online gambling sites.
For Exhibits A-E, see Senate Hearing 106-170, Hearing on Internet Gambling, Senate Judiciary Committee, March 23, 1999; pp. 27-53.
Just as Congress enacted the Wire Act to prohibit the use of the telephone as an instrument of gambling, so Congress should now enact specific legislation to prohibit the use of the Internet as an instrument of gambling. And just as the Wire Act provides an effective mechanism for bringing about the termination by telephone companies of service to gambling businesses, so the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999, through its injunctive relief provisions, would provide an effective mechanism for bringing about the termination by Internet service providers of access to gambling sites. In our view, Mr. Chairman, providing such a mechanism for ensuring that Internet service providers will terminate access to such sites is critical to any legislation to combat Internet gambling. In supporting the PASPA legislation to prevent the spread of legalized sports betting, Commissioner Tagliabue testified:
``Sports gambling threatens the character of team sports. Our games embody the very finest traditions and values. They stand for clean, healthy competition. They stand for teamwork. And they stand for success through preparation and honest effort. With legalized sports gambling, our games instead will come to represent the fast buck, the quick fix, the desire to get something for nothing. The spread of legalized sports gambling would change forever--and for the worse--what our games stand for and the way they are perceived.'' Quoted in S. Rep. No. 248, supra, at 4. Left unchecked, Internet gambling amounts to legalized gambling. Its effects on the integrity of professional and amateur sports and the values they represent are just as pernicious. Just as Congress intervened to stem the spread of legalized sports gambling in 1992, so it must intervene to stem the spread of Internet gambling today. Mr. Chairman, we applaud your efforts and the efforts of your staff to address this important problem. The Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999 will strengthen the tools available to federal and state law enforcement authorities to prevent the spread of Internet gambling into every home, office and schoolhouse in this country, and will send the vital message--to children and adults alike--that gambling on the Internet is wrong. We strongly support the passage of your bill. Thank you.

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-106shrg79713/html/CHRG-106shrg79713.htm
National Football League, New York, NY, April 10, 2000
Hon. John McCain, Chairman, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Washington, DC.
Dear Senator McCain:
I write on behalf of the National Football League to comment on S. 2340, the ``Amateur Sports Integrity Act.'' We understand that the Commerce Committee will shortly move to mark up S. 2340, and respectfully request that this submission be incorporated into the hearing record. Specifically, we write to urge in the strongest possible terms that Title II of the bill be expanded to prohibit gambling not only on amateur sports, but on professional sports as well. Congress has not previously distinguished between gambling on amateur and professional games, and Congress should not do so now.
Title II would add a new section to the Ted Stevens Olympic and Amateur Sports Act (36 U.S.C. 220501 et seq.) to prohibit gambling on amateur athletic games. The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (28 U.S.C. 3701-3704) (``PASPA'') generally prohibited the states from legalizing gambling on professional and amateur sports, but it also grandfathered certain gambling that was authorized by state law at the time of enactment. The effect of Title II of S. 2340 would be to repeal this grandfather provision so far as gambling on amateur athletic games is concerned, and to prohibit gambling on amateur games as a matter of federal law. But Title II does not prohibit gambling on professional games and instead allows such gambling to continue to the extent grandfathered by PASPA. We respectfully disagree with the narrow scope of Title II.
The National Football League strongly supported enactment of PASPA in 1992. As Commissioner Tagliabue testified at the time, ``we do not want our games used as bait to sell gambling. Sports gambling should not be used as a cure for the sagging fortunes of Atlantic City casinos or to boost public interest in state lotteries. We should not gamble with our children's heroes.'' In his testimony, Commissioner Tagliabue documented the efforts taken by the League to prevent sports gambling or involvement with sports gambling by club owners, players, and anyone else connected with our games. These efforts continue. Moreover, the League currently supports, and is promoting the passage of, S. 692, the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999, sponsored by Senator Kyl, which would end the plague of Internet sports gambling that seeks to evade the prohibitions of PASPA and the Wire Act. Copies of our testimony in support of PASPA and S. 692 are enclosed. During the floor debate on PASPA, Senator Bradley spoke eloquently of the harms gambling inflicts on sports. Tellingly, he invoked his experiences as a professional player as well as invoking the college sports scandals of his younger days:
``Mr. President, where sports gambling occurs, I think fans cannot help but wonder if a missed free throw, or a dropped flyball, or a missed extra point was part of a player's scheme to fix the game. If sports betting spreads, more and more fans will question every coaching decision and every official's call. All of this puts undue pressure on players, coaches, and officials . . . [If sports gambling is legalized,] [s]ports would become the gamblers' game and not the fans' game, and athletes would become roulette chips. . . .
I remember one game in Madison Square Garden. Toward the end of the game, one of my teammates happened to throw the ball up. We were ahead 6 or 8 points, I forget which. He threw the ball up at the other end of the court and the ball went in the basket. The next week the press speculated about whether it was timed to beat the line on the game. . . . Earlier in my life, when I was in high school and college, there were major sports scandals. Sports-fixing scandals. But the state came in and said this is wrong, and vigorously prosecuted.'' 138 Cong. Rec. 12989-90 (1992). When Congress enacted PASPA, it made the judgment that the prohibition should not be applied retroactively to sports gambling operations that were already permitted by, and conducted pursuant to, state law. See S. Rep. No. 248, 102d Cong., 1st Sess. 8, 9-10 (1991). As the Judiciary Committee emphasized, however,all such sports gambling is harmful.'' Id. at 8. The decision to grandfather certain sports gambling from the prohibitions of the bill was based on other considerations. The League accepted that judgment at the time with great reluctance. As Commissioner Tagliabue stated:
``We have made it clear that we would support legislation that prohibited any and all forms of gambling. We also recognize that we live in a country, a great one, which operates by consensus, and that in order to take a step forward, we have to accept this form of legislation which contains a very narrow grandfather provision.'' \1\ \1\ Prohibiting State-Sanctioned Sports Gambling: Hearing on S. 473 and S. 474 before the Subcomm. on Patents, Copyrights and Trademarks of the Senate Comm. on the Judiciary, 102d Cong., 1st Sess. 64 (1991).
If Congress is prepared to reconsider the judgment it made in 1992, that existing legal sports gambling should not be prohibited, there is no justification--moral, legal, or otherwise--for limiting such reconsideration to gambling on amateur sports. The harms that sports gambling inflicts, as detailed in the enclosed League testimony, impact professional sports no less than amateur sports. The harms it inflicts are just as real, and the cost to the integrity and reputation of our games, and to our values as a nation, are just as great. If anything, the harms inflicted on professional sports by gambling may be even greater than the harms inflicted on amateur sports because gambling on our games is more widespread. We have been fortunate during the last eight years that the NFL has not been scarred by the type of gambling scandals that have occurred in college sports. We have worked hard to educate and counsel our players, coaches and game officials regarding the dangers of sports gambling, and to take security measures to protect our employees from gambling influences. The NFL and other professional sports leagues should not now be denied the benefits of legislative action simply because we cannot point to any gambling incidents but college sports can. The ill effects of gambling apply equally to both college and pro sports. For all of these reasons, if Congress is now prepared to revisit the judgment it made in 1992, the NFL strongly urges that Title II be amended to extend its prohibition (and its repeal of PASPA's grandfather provision) to include gambling on professional sports. Sincerely, Jeffrey Pash, Executive Vice President.

 Attachment 1 

statement of paul tagliabue, commissioner, national football league before the subcommittee on patents, copyrights and trademarks, senate judiciary committee June 26, 1991
Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the Subcommittee. I am pleased to appear before you today to urge in the strongest possible terms your adoption of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (S. 474).
This important legislation builds on bills passed last year by the House and the Senate--though not by both--to prevent the spread of sports gambling. Like last year's bills, S. 474 would prohibit the states from establishing sports lotteries. Going beyond those bills, S. 474 would prohibit any other form of sports gambling authorized by state law based on professional or amateur games. Mr. Chairman, we do not want our games used as bait to sell gambling. Sports gambling should not be used as a cure for the sagging fortunes of Atlantic City casinos or to boost public interest in state lotteries. We should not gamble with our children's heroes. As I mentioned in my testimony before this Subcommittee last summer, I have been privileged to serve the National Football League for more than 20 years--first as outside counsel and now as Commissioner. In all this time, the League has vigorously protected its reputation for integrity and the wholesome character of its games. As the late Senator Kenneth B. Keating of New York said nearly 30 years ago in introducing the legislation codified in Title 18 that makes it a federal crime to fix or attempt to fix sporting contests:
Thousands of Americans earn a legitimate livelihood in professional sports. Tens of thousands of others participate in college sports as part of the physical fitness and character building programs of their schools. Tens of millions of Americans find sports a favorite form of recreation. We must do everything we can to keep sports clean so that the fans, and especially young people, can continue to have complete confidence in the honesty of the players and the contests. Scandals in the sporting world are big news and can have a devastating effect on the outlook of our youth to whom sports figures are heroes and idols.'' 109 Cong. Rec. 2,016 (1963). Thus, we strictly prohibit NFL club owners, coaches, players and anyone else connected with the NFL from gambling on NFL games or associating with persons involved in gambling. Anyone who does so faces severe disciplinary action by the Commissioner, up to lifetime suspension. Our League's Constitution also prohibits any NFL involvement with state lotteries. Our clubs cannot accept advertising revenue from lotteries, and coaches and players cannot appear in lottery ads or promotional events. We have advised the television networks that neither gambling-related commercials nor the dissemination of point-spread information are acceptable on NFL game broadcasts. Legalized sports gambling threatens all that we have worked for in this respect--and more. We oppose the spread of legalized sports gambling for four basic reasons. First, sports gambling threatens the character of team sports. Our games embody our very finest traditions and values. They stand for clean, healthy competition. They stand for teamwork. And they stand for success through preparation and honest effort. With legalized sports gambling, our games instead will come to represent the fast buck, the quick fix, the desire to get something for nothing. The spread of legalized sports gambling would change forever--and for the worse--what our games stand for and the way they are perceived. Second, sports gambling threatens the integrity of, and public confidence in, team sports. Sports lotteries inevitably foster a climate of suspicion about controversial plays and intensify cynicism with respect to player performances, coaching decisions, officiating calls and game results. Cynical or disappointed fans would come to assume the fix was in'' whenever the team they bet on failed to beat the point spread. And legalized sports gambling involving head-to-head betting threatens more than just public confidence in the integrity of our games. Its proliferation would appear to athletes to give official sanction to sports gambling and could threaten actual corruption of the games by undermining the ability of professional and amateur sports organizations to police themselves. Third, legalized sports gambling sends a terrible message to youth. Sports are very important to millions of our young people. Youth look up to athletes. Our players cannot be expected to serve as healthy role models for youth if they are made to function as participants in gambling enterprises. Legalized sports gambling also sends a regrettable message to our young people about government--thatanything goes'' when it comes to raising revenues or bolstering local economies, and that we might as well legalize, sponsor and promote any activity so that the state can get its cut.'' This is a message we can ill afford to send. Finally--and perhaps worst of all--legalized sports gambling would promote gambling among young people. Dr. Valerie Lorenz of the National Center for Pathological Gambling recently told Time (Feb. 25) that the rise in teenage gambling is linked to the spread of state lotteries generally:The message they're conveying is that gambling is not a vice but a normal form of entertainment.'' That negative message would certainly be sent by a state lottery based on team sports. And, as Dr. Lorenz has written, a sports lotterynot only teaches youngsters how to bet on football pools, but also encourages them to do so.'' \1\ What is true in this regard for sports lotteries would be even truer for casino-style sports gambling.\2\
\1\ Lorenz, ``State Lotteries and Compulsive Gambling,'' Journal of Gambling Studies, vol. 6, p. 392-93 (1990). \2\ For the reasons discussed by Professor Arthur R. Miller of the Harvard Law School in his testimony last summer, state-sponsored sports betting also misappropriates the goodwill and popularity of professional sports and amateur sports organizations and dilutes and tarnishes the service marks of such organizations. See Legislation Prohibiting Sports Lotteries from Misappropriating Professional Sports Service Marks: Hearing on S. 1772 before the Subcomm. on Patents, Copyrights and Trademarks of the Senate Comm. on the the Judiciary, 101st Cong., 2d Sess. 251 (1990). It bears repeating that the NFL has no desire to license or conduct our own gambling operations. In any event, S. 474 would invalidate any state law that purportedly authorized us to conduct such operations. Mr. Chairman, no one opposes your legislation on the ground that sports gambling is socially beneficial and should be encouraged. The principal argument advanced in opposition to the legislation is that federal action in this area is inappropriate and that the states should be left to decide for themselves whether to sponsor or allow sports gambling. Whatever superficial appeal it may have, this federalism argument is without substance.
Team sports are a national pastime. Sports gambling is a national problem and demands a national solution. The harms it inflicts are felt beyond the borders of those states that sanction it. The moral erosion it produces cannot be limited geographically. Once a state legalizes sports gambling, it will be extremely difficult for other states to resist the lure. The current pressures in such places as California and New Jersey to institute casino-style sports gambling illustrate the point. Since Oregon instituted its sports lottery two years ago, proposals for similar lotteries have surfaced in a number of other states.
We are not unsympathetic to the fiscal concerns that have motivated sports lottery and casino-style sports gambling proposals in some places. But those concerns cannot justify the great long-range harm to our sport and others such proposals would entail--and to a generation of young people whose attitudes toward team sports would be distorted and diminished by perpetuating a gambling-oriented outlook. Nor should Congress be misled by claims that legalization of sports gambling would reduce illegal sports gambling in a state. According to the Director of New Jersey's Division of Gaming Enforcement, most law enforcement professionals agree that legalization has a negligible impact on, and in some ways enhances, illegal markets.'' \3\ Illegal entrepreneurs can alwaysoutmarket'' their legitimate counterparts, offering better odds and, most important, tax-free winnings.
\3\Anthony J. Parillo, Proposal To Consolidate All Legalized Gaming Enforcement Functions within a Single Agency of the Department of Law & Safety, June 20, 1988, p. 188.
S. 474 breaks no new philosophical ground. It presents no new issue
of state prerogatives. Congress has previously recognized on several occasions that gambling has no place in sports, professional or amateur. Title 18 of the United States Code contains a specific federal policy against state sports gambling. When Congress acted in 1974 to exempt state lotteries from the prohibitions of the federal lottery and gambling laws generally, it specified that those prohibitions would continue to apply to state sports lotteries--i.e., lotteries that involve the placing or accepting of bets or wagers on sporting events or contests.'' 18 U.S.C. Sec. 1307(d). As the House Judiciary Committee explained, the exemptions of Sec. 1307 were not intended to apply indiscriminately to allgambling activities conducted by [a] state.'' H.R. Rep. No. 1517, 93d Cong., 2d Sess. 6-7 (1974). Beyond the federal lottery and gambling laws, Congress has legislated to protect the integrity of professional sports contests. In 1964, Congress made it a federal crime under Title 18 to influence or attempt to influence by bribery any sporting contest. 18 U.S.C. Sec. 224. The offense is punishable by a fine of up to $10,000 or imprisonment of up to five years, or both. This is not merely an assimilative offense''--conduct that is criminal under federal law because it is criminal under state law. Congress has recognized a distinct federal interest in protecting sports from corruption. The House Judiciary Committee called such corruptiona challenge to an important aspect of American life--honestly competitive sports.'' \4\
\4\ H.R. Rep. No. 1053, 88th Cong., 1st Sess. 2 (1963) (also noting federal interest in ensuring the integrity of sporting contests even where states decline to act); S. Rep. No. 593, 88th Cong., 1st Sess. 3- 4 (1963) (same).
In addition, Congress and the courts have recognized the need for uniform national rules in dealing with professional and intercollegiate sports. Congress, for example, has enacted legislation that, among other things, limits the extent to which the NFL can televise games in conflict with high school and college sporting events. 15 U.S.C. Sec. Sec. 1291-1294. And numerous courts have held that it is inappropriate to apply varying state laws and regulations to the nationwide business of professional sports. See, e.g., Flood v. Kuhn, 407 U.S. 258, 284-85 (1972); Partee v. San Diego Chargers, 34 Cal. 3d 378 (1983). This same interest in national uniformity supports congressional action with respect to the current issue. The alternatives to congressional action are unattractive and uncertain--and there is no reason why professional or amateur sports organizations should be forced to resort to them in view of the federal and nationwide interests at stake here and the interstate character of the affected sports organizations. Congress cannot afford to delay dealing with the problem of state- sanctioned sports gambling. At the moment, the problem is basically confined to Oregon and Nevada. If any significant number of other states should follow their example, it will be far more difficult for Congress to remedy the problem. The NFL applauds you, Mr. Chairman, and Senators Hatch, Bradley, Specter and the other co-sponsors of this bill, for assuming leadership in Congress on this issue of great public importance. We hope that S. 474 will proceed promptly to markup and be sent to the floor for an early vote. I would be glad to answer any questions.
Attachment 2 statement of jeff pash, executive vice president, national football league before the subcommittee on technology, terrorism and government information, senate committee on the judiciary March 23, 1999
Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee. My name is Jeff Pash. I am the Executive Vice-President and General Counsel of the National Football League. I appreciate the opportunity appear before you today to express the NFL's strong support for the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999. We strongly support this bill because it would strengthen and extend existing prohibitions on gambling, including gambling on sports events, and provide enhanced enforcement tools tailored to the unique issues presented by Internet gambling. We join the State Attorneys General who testified earlier and other sports leagues in urging adoption of this important legislation.
Simply put, gambling and sports do not mix. Sports gambling threatens the integrity of our games and all the values our games represent--especially to young people. For this reason, the NFL has established strict policies relative to gambling in general and sports betting in particular. The League prohibits NFL club owners, coaches, players and anyone else connected with the NFL from gambling on NFL games or associating in any way with persons involved in gambling. Anyone who does so faces severe disciplinary action by the Commissioner, including lifetime suspension. We have posted our anti- gambling rules in every stadium locker room and have shared those rules with every player and every other individual associated with the NFL.
The League has also sought to limit references to sports betting or gambling that in any way are connected to our games. For example, we have informed the major television networks that we regard sports gambling commercials and the dissemination of wagering information as inappropriate and unacceptable during football game telecasts Commissioner Tagliabue reemphasized this January that gambling and participation in the NFL are incompatible. In a restatement of our policies, the Commissioner reiterated that no NFL club owner, officer or employee may own any interest in any gambling casino, whether or not the casino operates a `sports book'' or otherwise accepts wagering on sports. The Commissioner specifically stated that no club owner, officer or employee may own, directly or indirectly, or operate anyon-line,' computer-based, telephone, or Internet gambling service, whether or not such a service accepts wagering on sports. (Ex. A).*

• For Exhibits A-E, see Senate Hearing 106-170, Hearing on Internet

Gambling, Senate Judiciary Committee, March 23, 1999; pp. 27-53. The League has been a strong proponent of federal efforts to combat sports gambling. We strongly supported the passage of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (28 U.S.C. 3701 et seq.). This 1992 legislation, known as PASPA, prohibits the states from legalizing sports betting. The League also worked to promote the passage of the Chairman's Internet gambling legislation in the last Congress. Like PASPA, the proposed legislation is a logical and appropriate extension of existing federal law and policy. The precedents for federal action in this area were well canvassed by the full Judiciary Committee in its report accompanying the 1992 legislation (S. Rep. No. 248, 102d Cong., 1st Sess. 5-8 (1991)).
The Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999 is a necessary and appropriate federal response to a growing problem that, as the States Attorneys General have testified, no collection of states can adequately address on an individual basis. Ten years ago, a gambler might have used the telephone to call his bookie. Today, he simply logs on. Gambling businesses around the country--and around the world--have turned to the Internet in an obvious attempt to circumvent the existing prohibitions on gambling contained in the Wire Act and PASPA. Many offshore gambling businesses provide betting opportunities over the Internet, effectively beyond the reach of federal and state law enforcement authorities.
The bill is needed because it updates our laws to reflect new technology. In its report accompanying the PASPA legislation eight years ago, the Judiciary Committee noted the growth of new technologies'' facilitating gambling, including the use of automatic teller machines to sell lottery tickets, and proposals to allowvideo gambling'' at home. S. Rep. No. 248, supra, at 5. It was, in significant part, the specter or expanded gambling raised by those new technologies'' that spurred Congress to enact PASPA. In those days, thenew technologies'' did not yet include the Internet. That day, however, has now come.
The problem of Internet gambling is significant--and growing. According to recent publications, the Justice Department has estimated that Internet gambling generated $600 million in revenue in 1997 alone. (Ex. B).* A recent cover story in USA Today predicts that Internet betting will grow to $2.3 billion by 2001. (Ex. C).* And an article by Professor Goldsmith in The International Lawyer reports that some experts expect Internet gambling revenue to grow even faster, up to $10 billion by the year 2000. (Ex. D).* Internet gambling is so successful largely because so little effort is required to participate. Unlike traditional casinos, which require gamblers to travel to the casino and place their bets on-site, Internet gambling allows bettors to access on-line wagering facilities twenty- four hours per day, seven days a week. Gamblers can avoid the hassle and expense of traveling to a casino, which in many parts of the country requires out-of-state travel. Internet gamblers also can avoid the stigma that may be attached to gambling in public on a regular basis. Internet gambling sites are easily accessible and offer a wide range of gambling opportunities from all over the world. Any personal computer can be turned into an unregulated casino where Americans can lose their life savings with the mere click of a mouse. Many of these gambling web sites have been designed to resemble video games, and therefore are especially attractive to children. But gambling--even on the Internet--is not a game. Studies have shown that sports betting is a growing problem for high school and college students, who develop serious addictions to other forms of gambling as a result of being introduced to ``harmless'' sports wagering.
As the Internet reaches more and more college students and schoolchildren, the rate of Internet gambling among young people is certain to rise. Because no one currently stands between Internet casinos and their gamblers to check identification, our children will have the ability to gamble on the family computer after school, or even in the schools themselves. And we must not be lulled by the paper tiger set up by proponents of Internet gambling--that children cannot access gambling web sites because they lack credit cards. It does not take much effort for a child to ``borrow'' one of his or her parents' credit cards for the few minutes necessary to copy down the credit card number and use it to access an Internet gambling service. The problems connected with Internet gambling transcend the NFL's concerns about protecting the integrity of professional sports and the values they represent. According to experts on compulsive or addictive gambling, access to Internet sports wagering dramatically increases the risk that people will become active, pathological gamblers. The National Council on Problem Gambling has reported that sports betting is among the most popular form of gambling for compulsive gamblers in the United States. That means that once individuals become exposed to sports betting, there is a real problem with recurrent and uncontrollable gambling. Conducting a gambling business using the Internet is illegal under the Wire Act (18 U.S.C. Sec. 1084) and indeed has been prosecuted--for example, in the case brought against six Internet sports betting companies last March by federal authorities in the Southern District of New York (Ex. E).* But as the prosecutors in that case plainly recognized, asserting jurisdiction over offshore gambling businesses that use the Internet can be problematic. More significantly, the Wire Act does not include direct mechanisms for ensuring termination by Internet service providers of access to online gambling sites.

• For Exhibits A-E, see Senate Hearing 106-170, Hearing on Internet Gambling, Senate Judiciary Committee, March 23, 1999; pp. 27-53.

Just as Congress enacted the Wire Act to prohibit the use of the telephone as an instrument of gambling, so Congress should now enact specific legislation to prohibit the use of the Internet as an instrument of gambling. And just as the Wire Act provides an effective mechanism for bringing about the termination by telephone companies of service to gambling businesses, so the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999, through its injunctive relief provisions, would provide an effective mechanism for bringing about the termination by Internet service providers of access to gambling sites. In our view, Mr. Chairman, providing such a mechanism for ensuring that Internet service providers will terminate access to such sites is critical to any legislation to combat Internet gambling. In supporting the PASPA legislation to prevent the spread of legalized sports betting, Commissioner Tagliabue testified:
``Sports gambling threatens the character of team sports. Our games embody the very finest traditions and values. They stand for clean, healthy competition. They stand for teamwork. And they stand for success through preparation and honest effort. With legalized sports gambling, our games instead will come to represent the fast buck, the quick fix, the desire to get something for nothing. The spread of legalized sports gambling would change forever--and for the worse--what our games stand for and the way they are perceived.'' Quoted in S. Rep. No. 248, supra, at 4. Left unchecked, Internet gambling amounts to legalized gambling. Its effects on the integrity of professional and amateur sports and the values they represent are just as pernicious. Just as Congress intervened to stem the spread of legalized sports gambling in 1992, so it must intervene to stem the spread of Internet gambling today. Mr. Chairman, we applaud your efforts and the efforts of your staff to address this important problem. The Internet Gambling Prohibition Act of 1999 will strengthen the tools available to federal and state law enforcement authorities to prevent the spread of Internet gambling into every home, office and schoolhouse in this country, and will send the vital message--to children and adults alike--that gambling on the Internet is wrong. We strongly support the passage of your bill. Thank you.

Hi all! I am an extreme novice when it comes to programming, so bear with me!
I want to create a project for a lesser-known sports league but for it I need a recallable database. Like if it was baseball I’d want to input something to the effect of “instances of player hitting flyball to left field” and it be able to search through and tell me the at-bats that they did.
I have all the game data to be able to put into it to achieve that result, just no idea where to go as far as putting it into something that can get that result.
Would learning R be the best route to go? Or would another be more beneficial for this?
Thank you!

Good day, everyone! I recently bought a scooter a Kymco Dink 150LX (yes an old scooter) I bought because it looks so comfortable, and I pulled the trigger because the prices was really nice for the condition of the motorcycle. While driving it, I noticed that it need a bit more torque, it has a lot of top end power, but needs torque. Then I recently had the chance to ride with my significant other on it, and I can feel it struggling a bit on climbing. I recently went on YouTube and Facebook groups on how to increase torque on said scooter. YT said that adjust flyball weights, then on Facebook groups said the springs.
That is why I am here, on Reddit, asking for your opinions on what is the best way to increase torque. Any suggestions will do. Thank you so much!

Hi everyone, I have some thoughts but looking to see what y’all think:
Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs?
Not my first dog. Most of my experience comes from my reactive male german shepherd and volunteering with raising Seeing Eye puppies (goldens, labs, gsds).
My GSD was raised for the seeing eye but ultimately not fit to guide. His litter all were reactive and suspicious and I just don’t think it was a good pairing on their geneticist’s part. For his adult life we focused heavily on redirecting his reactivity and trick training.
Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a reputable breeder?
Reputable breeder for this dog.
Describe your ideal dog.
A dog that can go anywhere, do anything type dog. I run a community group and would like this dog to be an ambassador for that. Weekly walks with other dogs and their owners, monthly dog friendly events, hosting stands at craft fair like situations, etc. I would love a cuddler AND a dog interested in sports.
What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?
Neutral to dogs and humans and public manners.
I want to participate in Rally, Obedience, Dock Diving, and (if I can find it in my area, FlyBall!!!)
Lots of trick training too
Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?
I’m new to the world but have found Rally and Obedience classes in my area and plan to also attend Dock Diving classes in my area. I’m having a hard time finding FlyBall in my area but want to at least attend tournaments as a spectator and eventually compete with the right dog!
Care Commitments
How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?
All meals will be handfed and used as training time. I do work an 8 hour work day but come home for a 45 minute lunch. My lunch would be utilized to allow my dog to relieve themselves and “sniffari” in the backyard.
There are 5 adults in our house, though I’d be primary caretaker, there is always someone home and the dog would likely be crated a few hours a day for structure and as needed if no one is home.
How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?
As much as they need. But training for meals and play time, sniffaris and enrichment each day. Physical vs mental exercise will depend on the dog in my opinion but needs will be met as I see the drive/energy of the dog. (or what the breeder can predict for the litter they pair me with)
How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?
I prefer not to have a poodle-like coat with extensive grooming needs. Daily brushing or every other day brushing is ideal. Long hair I can manage and any level of shedding is fine.
Personal Preferences
What size dog are you looking for?
45-60lbs
How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?
Vocal dogs are fine in the house! I’d prefer not to have a dog prone to on leash reactivity though.
Shedding at any level is fine.
Lowwwwww slobber! (Drooling when seeing something yummy is fine. But constant slobber like a mastiff is a no - sorry lol)
How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?
A breed known for being able to be trained to have a great recall is wonderful! But ultimately it’s unimportant. Long leads were invented for a reason and we’ll use them as needed!
Dog Personality and Behavior
Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space?
I want a snuggle bug that wants to be with me all the time when I’m home! But also not prone to severe separation anxiety.
Or separation anxiety that is easily worked on with crate training and enrichment for the crate.
Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?
Eager to please
How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?
Being excited to meet them but not protective or suspicious. Barking is fine but would ideally love a dog that is receptive to learning to go get a toy to present to guests as a greeting.
Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?
Though I have experience managing this type of behavior, I do not want to have to manage aggression with this dog.
Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?
Other than aggression towards humans, dogs, cats or children, I think I am equipped to deal with any other behaviors that might surface.
Lifestyle
How often and how long will the dog be left alone?
I work in person 3 days a week so on those days the dog would be left alone for some time. Myself and my partner will come and go for lunch and the other adults in my house work different schedules than the two of us. Though we won’t be home, there will be a schedule each day for crate time, potty time, enrichment given, etc. for even when I’m “not home”. A crate and gates will be used and though maybe crated for up to 5 hours a day they will not go more than 2-3 without a potty break.
What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?
All on board, they will help but myself and my partner are the main caretakers.
Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?
Yes, my partner's mother has 6 year old female yellow Labrador that we adore and likes to take turns sleeping in our bed or hers.
Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?
Yes. They will not live with children but my partner’s siblings are beginning to start their families. Any nieces and nephews will be welcome any time! Newborns/babies will never be left alone with the dog and am open to leashing my dog when needed!
Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?
We live with my partner’s family and “rent” from his mother. We do not have restrictions but would like to keep our dog under 60lbs and no pitbulls in case we need to rent again.
What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?
New Jersey, USA. No restrictions though many apartments do not allow pitbulls if we need to rent before buying a home.
What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?
Our summers can be from 80F -90F and winters can be as low as 5F but normally stays around 30-25F
Additional Information and Questions
Please provide any additional information you feel may be relevant.
I’m looking for a best friend that will be highly engaged with me, go anywhere, do anything confident dog that’s receptive to neutrality training. We live with a total of 5 adults and other dog. Our home is loving and fun but loud. A dog prone to being sensitive to noise would not thrive here, unfortunately. On this note, my partner and I have been together 9 years and though we don't plan to marry we operate as a married couple and this dog would be ours. Would live in this loud fun home with us until we're able to buy our first home together.
My partner and I hike, camp and go to the beach throughout the summer months. We would love a dog that can easily go from the Jersey Shore to the Delaware Water Gap one day and then back to our home and couch the next!
I have experience with many breeds but absolute love German Shepherds. I’m not ready to own one again after losing my soulmate puppy this year. They are my favorite but I’m just not ready to not compare another GSD to my lost best friend.
I have a degree in Animal Sciences, have previously worked at a doggy day care, run a community group dedicated to dogs and their owners, pet sit/walk as a side hustle AND make/sell one ingredient dog treats.
Thanks for your help! I’d love to see what breed(s) y’all would match us too!

Hello! This is the 3rd post out of 4 in this series and today we're going to go over infielders, specifically 3rd base because the non-3rd basemen in this FA class are complete and utter buns (I do have a small piece on the non-3B infielders at the end of this post). Initially I had planned on doing infielders & DHs in this installment, but it got a little long so now I'll include them in the outfielders post. Just a disclaimer before we jump in: I talk a lot more about hitting peripherals like exit velocity and spray distribution than I do WAR or any of the other results-based stats. The current results are still really important, but I feel that when we're looking at trying to predict future results and find value on the margins, it's more important to understand the process of how the current results came to be rather than the current results themselves.
The Chapman / Candelario Contention: The internet has played host to some legendary debates over its time: Goku vs Superman (Supes clears), Edward vs Jacob (that one was settled when Jacob basically set up an arranged marriage with Bella's baby, HOW did they think that was a good idea??), and that one bodybuilding.com thread where the guys argue over how many days are in a week. However, none of these arguments have taken over torontobluejays like Chapman vs Candelario. Let's dive in:
Matt Chapman: The Chapman argument basically boils down to 2 key points: Hitting Peripherals & Defense. The defense hasn't been "This is the best defender in the league" level since 2021, but 12 Defensive Runs Saved & 4 Outs Above Average in 2023 are both still excellent. On the offensive side of the ball, his exit velocities (one of the best predictors of in-game power we have) and hard-hit rate (the rate at which you hit batted balls 95+ MPH) were off the charts (98th & 100th percentile respectively). He also did a really excellent job of getting the ball in the air where you can make the most of those high exit velocities to really do damage. His Barrel %, defined by Statcast as "the % of batted balls with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle" was also in the 98th percentile of the league.
So what gives? If he's elevating the ball with power better than anyone in baseball, why did he only hit 17 HRs in 2023? The answer lies in the distribution of where those batted balls were hit. Here's a chart of all the Matt Chapman flyballs in 2023 that had an exit velocity over 95 MPH and a launch angle between 20 and 40 degrees (aka Juicy Flyballs). There's almost nothing on the pull side of the diamond! It's insane! Compare that to his 2022 and 2021 data. There's still a clustering of outs in CF in 2022, but he's still pulled the majority of these flyballs. I think that it's safe to assume that he has some positive regression coming for him in terms of power production. Chapman does still have some additional red flags: he's been a streaky hitter for almost his entire career, & he's more vulnerable than most to getting beat in the strike zone (78.1% zone contact rate last year, anything below 80% is pretty rough).
Jeimer Candelario: The arguments that I've seen around Candelario are that he'll give you equal production with the bat for less money, while also being less of a commitment long-term so one of the Barger / Martinez / Palmegiani contingent can take over when the time is right. Outs Above Average thinks Candelario is about an average defender for his career, while Defensive Runs Saved think he's one of the worst 3B in the game today (defensive metrics are weird). Interestingly, with the bat he's kind of the polar opposite of Chapman. He doesn't hit the ball terribly hard, but he's pretty consistent and difficult to beat in the zone (87% zone contact rate). He also elevates the ball at a fair rate, and Candelario makes the most out of these flyballs by pulling nearly all of them (here's his spray chart in 2023 using the same metrics that I used for Chapman's) which is primarily what allowed him to overperform his xWOBA last season (.346 vs .319). On these Juicy Flyballs, his WOBA was over 1.200 whereas Chapman's was .781 which is absolutely massive. There's a lot to like about Candelario and I think it's more likely that his -0.1 WAR 2022 was the outlier rather than his 3.3 WAR 2023.
Ultimately however, I land on the side that not bringing back Chapman will make the team worse. The money on his new deal might not look good in year 5 but the Jays are currently in their compete window and not bringing back the best player available on the market at his position is a mistake, especially when everything points to positive regression in the near future. Candelario is a fine player, but I just think that his bat is more susceptible to negative regression if his batted ball distribution changes, and his glove isn't going to make up any of that value if he does struggle. I also don't think Barger, Martinez or Palmegiani are long term fits at 3rd or going to make a real impact in 2024. They all seem as though they're destined for the other side of the diamond or a corner outfield spot (out of the 3, I'm probably the highest on Martinez. I'm a big fan of the walk rate, raw power, & batted ball profile) so in my opinion, inking Chapman long term doesn't block anyone. Candelario is miles better than any of the non-Chapman options though, and if Chapman decides to go to San Francisco or Seattle, I would welcome him with open arms.
Of course there is a Doomer scenario where the Jays don't end up with EITHER of these guys, so in order to prematurely stop torontobluejays from collectively throwing themselves off a bridge, let's look at the other options at 3rd base. DISCLAIMER: THESE ARE ALL BAD OPTIONS!!! I've committed myself to writing about this awful hitter class and trying to find the best value for next year, but if the Jays don't land either of the top 2 guys they should try and make a move for a real guy (Ezequiel Duran, J.D Davis, Jared Triolo, Kyle Farmer, etc). I don't really believe in the Jean Segura revival either!! But it's a hell of a lot better than trying to convince myself that Josh Harrison has still got that dog in him. That being said, let's plug our noses and rummage through the bargain bin:
Gio Urshela: Does the name Gio Urshela do anything for you in 2023? If not then you're really going to have a hard time with the rest of this list because he's clearly the 3rd best player who can man the hot corner in this class. Urshela is coming off of his worst season since his 2019 breakout: he only played 62 games due to a fractured pelvis and posted his lowest wRC+ (92) since 2019. His walk rate was down, his chase rate was up, and he was already someone that didn't walk much and chased a lot. His hard hit rate and exit velocities were both down as well, which severely limited his SLG.
Ok, so what's the upside here? How is he still clearly the 3rd best option despite all of these flaws? Well, even with everything that went wrong, his wRC+ was within sniffing distance of league average and he's only a year removed from a 2022 where he played 144 games and carried a 119 wRC+. The exit velocities dropping are the most concering aspect to me considering how sticky those numbers are, but he still hits a lot of line drives and the 3.6% HFB ratio definitely isn't sustainable over a full season with what his exit velocities were in 2023. He's like the bathroom at a Gas Station in the middle of nowhere of 3B options: you should have planned ahead and gone before you got in the car or before you left the city, but it still provides you the relief you need in a pinch.
Jean Segura: Segura & Urshela are actually pretty similar players but if Urshela had a bad year, then Segura had the Year From Hell. After posting a 105 wRC+ in 98 games with the Phillies in 2022, he accumulated -1.3 WAR, 52 wRC+ and was released by the Marlins on August 1st in 2023. That's probably as close as you can get to achieving the polar opposite of winning the triple crown. For someone to get so bad so quickly, surely his peripheral hitting stats matched the decline of his counting stats. Walks & Ks are one of the easiest ways to see if someone's declining, and so it makes sense that his walk rate went... up (6.5 -> 6.7) and his K rate went... down (15.0 -> 14.4). Hmm that's weird, well then clearly when he actually hit the ball he was just making worse contact. His average exit velocity went from 87.6 all the way down to... 88 and his hard-hit rate declined from 38.4 down to... 38.8. Ok, well what does the batted ball distribution look like, did he just start hitting easy flyballs and pop-ups that had no chance of becoming hits? His Line Drive rate dropped 1.4% and his flyball rate hasn't really changed, so other than a 5% increase in infield pop-ups (which wouldn'd drop his wRC+ by 50 points), the distribution looks the same as it was his entire career when he averaged nearly 3 WAR per season. I think Segura just had an extremely weird season, I don't expect him to be an All-Star again, but I think he's the most obvious candidate for positive regression out of all of these guys.
Josh Donaldson: Ok this one isn't going to happen because of all of the baggage with the Blue Jays (and because he's an asshole), but speaking of weird seasons, Donaldson had an all-timer and I really want to write about it: .115 BABIP? Not what you want! Becoming the most hated Yankee since Jacoby Ellsbury? Kinda based if you think about it. Not introducing himself to his teammates in Milwaukee because he thought "Everybody knows who I am"? Hilarious, but in a "laughing at you, not with you" kind of way. Unforunately, the sneaky truth is that despite all of this, the not-so-young man can still play. He walks at an above average clip, still has upper tier exit velocities and is an above average defender at the hot corner. He's not going to be a high batting average guy going forward because of his diminished contact %s and flyball-heavy approach, but he's also not going to be Old Joey Gallo and live below the Mendoza line (his 8.5% line drive rate in 2023 is the primary culprit and that isn't sustainable over a full season). I think whoever picks him up for his final season will be pleasantly surprised on the field (maybe not so much off of it) as a Gallo-esque-except-better-contact-skills type hitter, especially compared to what's out there in the FA market.
The Other 3rd Basemen: Evan Longoria, Brian Anderson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Newman, Adalberto Mondesi, Eduardo Escobar, Joey Wendle, Jonathan Schoop, Josh Harrison, Hanser Alberto, Tommy La Stella, Nick Senzel, Garret Hampson, Matt Duffy, Harold Castro, Luis Guillorme, Michael Chavis, Ehire Adrianza, Hunter Dozier
All of these guys are either old (I still love you Longo), can't hit (don't worry guys, this is the IKF breakout year), have glaring red flags in their peripherals (sorry Garret Hampson, he of the .379 BABIP), or are all of the above (Adrianza didn't deserve this stray, I hope he has a good life). Some of them might get picked up, but it's hard to see them as anything more than an extra bench bat, a pseudo-bench coach or a 2024 KBO All-Star.
The Non-3rd Basemen: Tim Anderson, Adam Frazier, Amed Rosario, Enrique Hernandez, Tony Kemp, Brandon Crawford, Elvis Andrus, Whit Merrifield, Kolten Wong, Roughned Odor, Jose Iglesias, Nick Ahmed, Harold Castro, Jake Lamb, Leury Garcia, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, Brad Miller, Jesus Aguilar, Jared Walsh, Mike Moustakas
The Jays are pretty set around the diamond other than the hot corner so I wasn't planning on dwelling to much on these additional infielders. Then I looked at some of the names that are available up the middle and at 1B and realized: I don't think I could write about these guys even if the Jays had a positional need here. Honestly I'm just happy for Whit, if anyone has a need for a 2nd baseman (Boston) they almost have to pay him over market, there's just nobody good that's available. He's the only one other than Crawford, Hernandez & Rosario who's even been somewhat good since 2021. There is one name that intrigues me though, so I'll do a quick blurb since he seems to be getting some traction in the sub.
Amed Rosario: Rosario is one of the youngest players in this FA class and had back to back above average offensive seasons (102 & 105 wRC+ at Shortstop) before faltering in 2023. He's never been one to get his steps in (4.5% career walk rate), but there aren't really any red flags in any of the other peripherals. His exit velocities were consistent & hard hit rate actually improved compared to his previous seasons and he even began elevating more. Despite this, his HFB rate dropped below 5% for the first time in his career, so you can probably expect some positive offensive regression.
The issue is that Rosario is a Shortstop, not a Third Basemen. Luckily, Rosario is not a particularly good Shortstop (-53 OAA in 7 seasons!!) so it made sense to me that he would likely have to move to either 2nd or 3rd in order to find his long-term defensive home. Even below average defenders at Short often move to other positions and become plus defenders, so it seemed as though the Jays might be able to scoop him up and move him over to 3rd. That is until I looked at said list of FA middle infielders. I urge you not to go over the list again because it might hurt your eyes but trust me when I say that it is dire. So because of that, I'm confident that SOMEONE who has a need in the middle of their infield will pay him to play Shortstop, no matter how below average he is, just because of the age and the regression potential of the bat. If I'm wrong then he would vault into 3rd place on this list pretty quickly.
I hope you enjoyed this post, I feel like I need a shower after looking at Tim Anderson's Fangraphs page. I'll try and bring back a fun gimmick for the outfielders, there was just so much to cover here that I felt like I needed to dive right in. The next post will be the last one in the series and I hope to have it out by the end of the week!
All info was taken from Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, & Baseball Savant

Trades are where we can dream a little more because Mike Elias has far more high value prospects than John Angelos has money he's willing to spend. The question is if Elias is actually willing to trade those prospects.
So here's part two of my series on the offseason. If you missed part one, which focused on free agent starters, it's here. Since then, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have signed with the Cardinals, and I think Nick Martinez is available, too.
Once again, I only focused on starting pitching because I see it as the area that both needs upgrades and has a clear path. Conversely, I think we have a logjam at position players, and relievers are such a crap shoot I don't even know where to begin. It's not that the team can't improve in those areas (I watched the same games in September and October as you did), but I can see starting pitching a little more clearly. That said, I should caveat once again that I’m not really any more qualified to speak on this than Joe or Jane Doomer, but I’m probably not alone in thinking trades are how Elias is going to make “this” “”work.””
And if you don’t have time to read 5,000 words, here’s the summary in three tables:
Fantastic

Name	Team	IP	FA Year	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	K-BB%	vFA (sc)	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
Dylan Cease	CHW	361.0	2026	3.37	3.40	3.78	3.79	18.55%	96.1	119.3	97.2	105.2
Freddy Peralta	MIL	242.0	2027	3.64	3.56	3.50	3.49	21.56%	93.8	104.0	100.9	103.8
Logan Gilbert	SEA	376.1	2028	3.47	3.66	3.77	3.81	18.10%	95.9	103.7	101.3	102.8
Mitch Keller	PIT	347.1	2026	4.09	3.85	3.82	3.99	15.49%	95.3	103.2	101.7	101.6

Acceptable

Name	Team	IP	FA Year	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	K-BB%	vFA (sc)	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
Bryce Miller	SEA	131.1	2030	4.32	3.98	4.31	4.17	17.32%	95.1	117.0	104.0	108.9
Bryan Woo	SEA	87.2	2030	4.21	4.36	4.26	4.13	16.71%	95.1	103.2	101.8	103.6
Reid Detmers	LAA	277.2	2028	4.15	3.97	4.24	4.13	15.55%	93.8	98.8	97.8	98.3
Patrick Sandoval	LAA	293.1	2027	3.50	3.63	4.13	4.47	11.24%	93.0	93.2	97.7	98.1

Disappointing

Name	Team	IP	FA Year	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	K-BB%	vFA (sc)	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+
Michael Kopech	CHW	246.0	2026	4.35	5.50	5.28	5.10	8.34%	95.0	110.5	92.9	96.7
Shane Bieber	CLE	328.0	2025	3.24	3.26	3.36	3.64	17.75%	91.3	99.1	102.2	100.8
Ken Waldichuk	OAK	137.2	2029	5.23	5.46	4.97	4.78	10.93%	93.3	93.2	95.0	93.6
JP Sears	- - -	225.0	2029	4.48	5.03	5.04	4.67	13.02%	93.1	91.3	100.3	98.7
Paul Blackburn	OAK	214.0	2026	4.29	4.03	4.07	4.28	12.99%	91.7	86.5	101.4	96.9
Brady Singer	KCR	307.1	2027	4.36	3.93	3.81	3.98	14.96%	92.7	90.1	100.8	97.0

What do you guys think? Who am I missing? Should I do a deeper dive into any individual pitcher?
Like last time, I used a simple query of Stuff+ tables on FanGraphs with minimum 100 IP across 2022-2023, and then sorted by Stuff+ descending. I just want to see guys with a reasonable amount of action without taking into the account the covid years or juiced ball era. Some of these guys had really bad 2023 seasons, so I thought that including 2022 would help with sample size. Plenty of guys have just one bad year or just one good year.
This is 186 guys. But the actual number is way lower because a lot of pitchers are disqualified for various reasons:

• Free agents: see previous post, no need to review them again
• Too expensive of a contract: Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole (lol)
• Injured: Brandon Woodruff, Germán Márquez, Anthony DeSclafani, Brad Keller
• Division rivals: I trust Elias to not get fleeced, but most of the time, I don’t think these are worth it

Other considerations:

• The market is dependent on sellers. Every team that doesn’t sell raises the price of everyone remaining.
• We need to have the positions that sellers need, and the pitcher that we want can’t figure heavily into their future plans. Rebuilding teams want cheap young starters. Conversely, I excluded guys on teams who need them to make a run. This takes out a lot of guys. The Brewers are borderline because they look like they're on the doorstep of blowing it up. I ultimately didn’t include any Marlins because they have enough pitching on the IL that they need it unless they're doing a teardown.

I list three categories below: fantastic, acceptable, disappointing in terms of showing how serious Elias is about winning now.
Format: (Current Team; Stuff+ Location+ Pitching +; Year of FA; Age; Ranking on the 2023 trade value rankings by the Prophet Ben Clemens, peace be upon him).
Fantastic
As mentioned above, if Elias trades for these guys, that would show that he’s serious about winning now - not in the long run, not over a sustained period - now. You can make these trades and still have longer term success; you're not emptying the farm, but you'll see fewer top 100s for a while.
Dylan Cease (Chicago White Sox; 119 97 105; 2026; 27 yr; HM)
The man purportedly worth Jackson Holliday. Free agent after 2025. Probably a better value deal than Corbin Burnes because Cease took a bigger step back in 2023, plus you get an extra year of control. A lot of us are tempted to match the arc of the Elias Orioles to the Luhnow Astros, which would make Cease Gerrit Cole. I don’t think it’s controversial to say Cole had better raw stuff, but I don’t think Elias is willing to spend as much as his Houston predecessor. So if 2024 Cease is worse than 2018 Cole, I think that’s a good thing.
Unfortunately, I have no idea what the Chicago White Sox are doing because from what I can tell, their new GM was part of the old regime, so it's not clear to me if he’s going to blow it up. And even if he does trade Cease, is he still going to ask for Jackson Holliday? There's no reason they shouldn't have started a rebuild at the deadline, frankly, so there's a good chance they just hold onto Cease and let him walk for nothing.
I think most people reading the entire post already have a good feel for Cease's pitching profile. He loves his slider enough to write a poem about it, and while I can never condone poetry, it did have a run value of +10 in 2023, a good number but a steep drop from the lava hot +36 in 2022. His disappointing 2023 still netted him 3.7 fWAR, with 4.5 and 4.4 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. He's also not a durability concern (as far as any pitcher can be not a durability concern), covering 165+ innings a year since 2021.
Here's the counter argument: what if he doesn't turn it around stuff-wise? In 2023, he lost a tick off his fastball (96.9 in 2022 to 95.8 in 2023), lost an inch of vertical drop on the fastball, 1.5 horizontal inches on the slider. He’s gone from 61.7 to 59.1 to 58.5 inches of vertical drop on the curveball from 2021 to 2022 to 2023. There are a lot of interweaving reasons why players’ pitches move the way they do, so I can’t assume these are strictly negative. I would guess losing a little bit of fastball ride is purely a bad thing, but he dropped 2.9 inches of horizontal break on his slider between 2021 and 2022, and 2022 was the year it was worth +36 runs. His knuckle curve had the second worst Stuff+ (87) with the filters used, and it was worth -12 runs in 2023. So what if he doesn't have a curve? Like Eno Sarris pointed out in May, it makes him more of a two-pitch pitcher, and is that a risk Elias is willing to take?
Anyway, starting this list with Cease is kind of stupid because if he gets traded, it's going to be expensive, and he’s a Boras client so we’re not likely to extend or re-sign them. Even so, it's two years of control, so he’s not a pure rental. The extra year is basically why I put Cease on this list and not Burnes. Burnes would immediately add three wins to our 2024 total but he’s also a Boras client with only one year before free agency, so I’m skeptical Elias will trade as much as he needs to to get only one year of an ace.
Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers; 104 101 104; 2025-2027; 27 yr; N/A)
Here is Peralta’s contract: 5 yr, $15.5M (2020-24), 2025-26 $8M club options
So even if it weren't for his stuff (114 four-seamer, 111 slider) or 92nd percentile whiff% and K%, the contract alone makes Peralta desirable - in his two club option years, he’s going to make as much as Burnes is likely to get in arbitration in just 2024.
With Brandon Woodruff out for 2024, GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell both gone, and all three of Burnes, Woodruff, and SS Willy Adames pending free agents in 2024, this might be the guy to take a swing on. It all depends on if the Brewers fold and trade for the future. It’s important to remember the Brewers are also cheapskates, so they could also sit on his cost-controlled contract.
Peralta didn't even make honorable mention this past trade deadline, "Peralta is on a cheap deal but hardly elite." But if you ask me, the stuff is good, he's averaged ~3.0 fWAR and ~3.50 xFIP each of the past three seasons with ERA/xERA/FIP values that hover around 3.00, and that contract is cheap for a modest number of years (John Angelos if you're reading this I KNOW YOU CAN AFFORD HIS 2025-2026 OPTIONS).
There’s a lot to say about Peralta’s four-seamer and fastball shape in general, but long story short, I think his is an excellent complement to our team arsenal. The summary is that it works really well because of a low release point, good vertical approach angle (VAA), good extension, and good deception (hiding the ball until it whips out of his hand). His induced vertical break (IVB) is average, but the other characteristics of his fastball make up for it.
The counter argument: look at his innings pitched. 144.1 in 2021, 165.2 in 2023, nothing north of 90 IP any other year since his 2018 debut. Which guy are we trading for? Elias will want to pay for 2022, Brewers want to sell for 2021/2023.
Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners; 104 101 103; 2028; 26 yr; #33)
Gilbert is the most expensive pitcher in this review. He's a proven frontline starter with four years of team control remaining, including one pre-arbitration. He's also durable at 180+ IP in each of the last three seasons.
I listed only Gilbert among Seattle's TOR arms because I find it exceedingly unlikely we'll trade for George Kirby (#26 by Clemens) let alone Luis Castillo. Kirby is younger and has both better command and an extra year of control over Gilbert; the bidding would probably start at several top 100s. As for Gilbert, none of our starters throw a splitter and our main splitter guy is out for at least a year, so I think he's a good fit for varying the team's pitch mix.
If Teoscar Hernández doesn't re-sign, the Mariners have an opening for a righty outfield bat, given Kelenic, Canzone, and Marlowe are all lefties. I think Santander is an upgrade from Hernández, but you'd obviously need to throw in a lot more to get Gilbert's value. It's four years of team control, and the Blue Jays traded one year of Hernández for three years of reliever Erik Swanson plus lottery ticket Adam Macko. If you consider Santander (2025 FA) equivalent to pre-2023 Hernández, what do you consider the gap between Gilbert and Swanson? That's what we need to fill with ML-quality bats. You now see the difficulty.
And here's the counter argument: does he give up contact that's too hard? He's had bottom quarter average EV and HH% all three years he's pitched. His barrel% is below average but at least 33rd percentile, so it's not like he's giving up nukes every time batters make contact. He’s been a little homerun prone in 2023, but you swap out Kreme-dawg for Gilbert and you’re probably adding at least two wins. In the sense that he has the fewest obvious red flags of any pitcher in this tier, I wouldn't second guess this too much.
Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates; 103 102 102; 2026; 27 yr; N/A)
Mitch Keller was by far the best Pittsburgh starter, but if you look at his season numbers, he was actually "just" above average. Solid K%, BB%, and HH%, but his barrel% and whiff% are meh, and his recent (250 PA) rolling xwOBA is average, too. He was sublime when he came to Baltimore in May, but then he just kept getting tagged for a ton of runs. Five or more runs seven times after May. I don't watch enough NL baseball to really understand what happened to him, but based on a little research, it might be that something messed with his release point, stuff, and velocity and caused his results to crater after May. But there's a lot going on here because Keller throws as many as six pitches, and I won't assume it's all caused by one thing.
This trade might actually be doable because he's got only two years left on his contract and he's not in the power level of Cease or as cheap for as long as Gilbert. But he himself wants to stay in Pittsburgh, and there was smoke earlier in the season about a long-term extension.
I think this is the right guy from a trade value perspective. The question is if we can meet Pittsburgh's needs. They're a young team with few expiring contracts (McCutcheon, Vince Velasquez), so it's not clear to me they want what we have. The FanGraphs rankings at the start of the year put them at bottom five at 2B, RF, and RP, and bottom 10 at C, DH, and SP. Unfortunately, the inclusion of both starting and relief pitching there makes me think they’re going to want pitching back if they trade Keller. And if that’s the case, we might be shit out of luck. The Pirates also have a history of letting good pitchers go for an unfavorable return, so who knows, maybe they’ll go in for another one.
Counter argument: everything before 2023 and everything after May. If you believe his improvements are here to stay, he's a good investment. Or, are we buying his peak?
Acceptable
Oops All AL West! These are the kind of trades that I hoped Elias would make last offseason, so I’d still be pretty happy with them. These are all cheap starters with at least three years of control. These guys still aren’t cheap, but we would have to give up less for them, and if they develop with the rest of the team’s young core of position players, this tier might actually be better from a timeline/competitive window perspective.
Bryce Miller (Seattle Mariners; 117 104 109; 2030; 25 yr; HM)
Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners; 103 102 104; 2030; 23 yr; HM)
Bryce Miller? The guy who only throws fastballs has above average stuff on four of his five pitches? And he has five pitches?
Miller had a solid rookie season, albeit very five-and-divey: 11 of his 25 starts were 5.0 IP or fewer, and after a blazing hot start of only four runs in 31.1 IP, he gave up 59 runs in the remaining 100 IP (read: >5 ERA). But his fastball looks quite good: among 2022-2023 starters, t-9th in four-seamer Stuff+ at 121, 18th in IVB at 18.4”, and 23rd in VAA above average at +0.42°. It is therefore unsurprising that he throws the heater almost 60% of the time, even if its run value per 100 pitches is literally 0.0.
The bad news: Miller and Woo came up in 2023, so the Mariners have six years of control. I can’t find anything about Woo’s contract status, and Baseball Reference says he still hasn’t exceeded his rookie limits, but I’m going to assume since he was on the big league roster for quite a while, this is just a documentation issue. Woo was 12.1 innings short of my 100 IP threshold, but it’s not like you can set Miller’s destiny in stone after 131.1 IP, either.
You could argue Woo’s better peripherals make him a more appealing candidate, and I think Woo is one of the few pitchers I’ve seen with a high Stuff+ sinker at 109. FanGraphs lead prospect writer Eric Longenhagen grades Miller at 50 FV and Woo at 45+, so it’s close. An important detail that Longenhagen highlights is that he considers both of these guys to still be developing, so I don’t really ding Woo’s Stuff+ because I assume it’s going to grow.
Seattle has a weird front office. I wouldn’t call them cheap, since they gave Robbie Ray a five year, $115MM contract and then they gave Julio Rodríguez a titanic extension that could top out at $400MM. On the other hand, after the 2022 season, they gave contracts to (checks notes) Kolten Wong, A.J. Pollock, and Tommy La Stella. Point being, I won’t be surprised if they pocket these young starters and let them develop some more. If they end up as good as Gilbert and Kirby, the Mariners can flip them for a lot more than what they can get now.
The main argument against these guys is that they have 200 career innings combined and many of them came in spurts of five innings or fewer. I peered over at the Mariners sub and found a good, basic comment about the differences and potential tweaks these guys need to make. Point being, they have potential, and that’s what you’re buying here.
Reid Detmers (Los Angeles Angels; 99 98 98; 2028; 24 yr; N/A)
Patrick Sandoval (Los Angeles Angels; 93 98 98; 2027; 27 yr; N/A)
Reid Detmers has a hittable four-seamer and two reasonably good breaking balls - sound familiar to another Angel we traded for?
He had a funky 2023: 3.72 ERA / 3.26 FIP over his first 15 starts before giving up 29 ER in 25.1 innings over the next six starts and then finished the season with only 13 11 ER in 41.0 innings. Because of that disastrous stretch where he gave up nine home runs in six games, the season line looks middling at 4.48 ERA 4.13 FIP, but if you look under the hood, it, uh, also looks middling with a 4.45 xERA and 4.27 xFIP.
But that might be fine because we want guys whose potential we can unlock. Given Detmers isn’t a free agent until 2028, I have a feeling the Angels would probably prefer to keep him anyway since a rebuild shouldn’t really take more than four or five years, and the next couple years of development could mean they could sell high in 2026 or 2027.
For a long time, I thought highly of Patrick Sandoval because I watched him mow down the Mariners in person a few years ago. Unfortunately for him, his 2023 was a rough ride. I’m curious if he has issues getting tilted, since only 66 of his 89 runs given up in 2023 were earned. Moreover, he’s been trending in the wrong direction on both strikeouts and walks to the tune of a 8.3% K-BB% in 2023.
With one fewer year of team control than Detmers and seemingly on the downslide, this might be an opportunity to steal him from the Angels. I see them as more likely to move on from him than Detmers because every couple of starts we see flashes of brilliance from Detmers, and he could be the guy for them to build around moving forward.
Stuff+ doesn’t like Sandoval, but I believe we can do more with less. Sandoval was also originally an Elias draftee back in Houston, and Elias liked him quite a bit, “Patrick is a premium high school lefty whom our staff followed all spring. [...] He has good size, a lively fastball that he locates well, and a solid curveball and changeup in place. We like the blend of pitchability, stuff and projection he offers, and to add a talent of his caliber is a big boost to [the Houston Astros] and our draft class.”
He’s only 27. And a lefty.
What's the argument against them? Detmers has a middling fastball and can be disastrously inconsistent. If Sandoval’s single-digit K-BB% is not a fluke, then… he has a single-digit K-BB%.
Disappointment
I don’t have anything personal against these guys, it’s just more along the lines of the small additions we’ve seen since last winter. I think this is probably the most likely bucket we see.
Michael Kopech (Chicago White Sox; 111 93 97; 2026; 27 yr; N/A)
I was surprised to see him on this list when I remembered this is stuff, not location. His Location+ is the lowest of anybody on this list at 93, tied for lowest of all 100+ IP starters 2022-2023, and lowest of all 100+ IP starters in 2023 alone at 91. The fastball is still his big pitch, but with 1st percentile BB% and barrel%, he needs some work.
Not sure this guy is worth it even as a reliever unless the FO sees something they can actually fix. I watched this guy a couple of times last season and it seems like he legitimately has 20 command. His 15.5% BB% in 2023 was by far the worst among starters, with Blake Snell's 13.3% a distant second, and that doesn't even really count since Snell is a prodigious nibbler.
Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians; 99 102 101; 2025; 28 yr; N/A)
This is mostly a repost of what I said in this thread, but my thoughts are intact:
I had kind of written off Shane Bieber assuming the Guardians were going to push with their young pitching corps (Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Triston McKenzie, etc.) and a weak AL Central, but I guess it aligns with their previous practices to sell pitchers on the verge of implosion like Corey Kluber.
After a very good 2022 (2.88 ERA/3.51 xERA/2.87 FIP/2.98 xFIP) where he struck out a batter an inning and had a career high (career low? the good one) in walk rate, he had an injury-riddled 2023 where he was basically a whole run worse by each headline stat. The good news is he still doesn't walk a lot of guys, and his GB rate is competitive.
Beyond the injury, the troubling stuff is obvious: his strikeout rate (and whiff rate correspondingly) has really declined from 33.1% to 25.0% to 20.1% over the past three years, and his fastball continues to lose roughly a tick a year.
If you want an unambitious rental, you could do worse than Shane Bieber. But I don't think he's the guy you want if you want to improve the club enough to not regress to the 89-win record by BaseRuns in 2023. But if you're going to do that, why not just pay a free agent $10MM-$15MM (assuming you won't spend more than that anyway) and save the trade chips for something bigger?
Ken Waldichuk (Oakland Athletics; 93 95 94; 2029; N/A)
JP Sears (Oakland Athletics; 91 100 99; 2029; N/A)
Paul Blackburn (Oakland Athletics; 87 101 97; 2026; N/A)
Two below average Oakland lefties with five years of team control and then a below average righty with two years of team control. I don’t have much to say about these guys other than their peripherals are kinda crummy, and they’re in the same style of pitcher as Cole Irvin, except Waldichuk walks a lot of guys, JP Sears has a good VAA fastball, and Blackburn had a <4 FIP last year.
There’s no Matt Olson or Sean Murphy to be robbed here. We can try again in 2028 or later when Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, and Mason Miller are nearing free agency.
Brady Singer (Kansas City Royals; 90 101 97; 2027; 27 yr; N/A)
Brady Singer has two pitches (sinker slider), below average fastball velocity, and he took a big step back in 2023 after a pretty good 2022 where in 153.1 IP he had a 3.23 ERA/3.97 xERA/3.58 FIP/3.30 xFIP. Like Bieber, his GB rate is good, and he doesn't walk too many guys.
But don't you want more than that? Like everybody else in this tier, Singer asks the question, "are we making the rotation any better by starting this guy instead of 2024 Kremer or 2023 Gibson?"
I know I’m asking for a lot. Logan Gilbert and Freddy Peralta are good pitchers, and I’m not even sure either team is interested in selling their major leaguers. But it’s the start of the offseason. Let’s keep dreaming at least until February…
Guys who are missing from this list:

• Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers - I know, he should be in the first tier. But like I said, I don’t think I can expect Elias to trade for definitively one year of an ace in the one season we don’t have our Paul Bunyan closer. Burnes objectively makes the team better, but it seems like pulling the fire alarm in year two of contention.
• Tyler Glasnow; Tampa Bay Rays - he’s likely available, but he’s due $25MM with only one year of control, and trading with the Rays is dangerous.
• George Kirby; Seattle Mariners - too expensive. We're going to have trouble enough finding assets to get Gilbert - who would we need to trade to get Kirby?
• Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett; Miami Marlins - down one Sandy and one Pablo, I think the Marlins no longer have a starting pitching surplus. But if they were willing to trade, Garrett would be a good pickup. Below average velo and underwhelming Stuff+, but he doesn’t walk guys, has a high GB rate, and is a lefty. Again, you want more than just that, but it'll take a lot more to dislodge Luzardo. No proven lefty starter throws a harder fastball.
• Nick Pivetta; Boston Red Sox - Pivetta has a good fastball with ride, good whiff% and K%; the downside is that he has only a year before free agency, 2nd percentile barrel%, and he's a flyball pitcher. If he dropped onto our 40-man tomorrow, I'd be happy to replace Kremer with him. But he plays for Boston and I'm loath to trade them any righty bats.
• Triston McKenzie; Cleveland Guardians - Sticks would've been a great pickup last year, such that there was a 0% chance the Guards would've traded him. But now they have a glut of young pitchers, except McKenzie hurt his UCL (!) and was pretty bad in limited action.
• Logan Webb; San Francisco Giants - honestly, I have no idea what the Giants are doing, but they just extended him with an excellent five year, $90MM contract, so it'd be silly to trade him now. Great value.
• Jameson Taillon; Chicago Cubs - it's an affordable contract, but he was terrible in 2023. I have to think Elias can do better for the same amount of money.
• Cole Ragans; Kansas City Royals - I think the Royals know what they have. His stock has never been higher, so we might as well wait a year to see if comes back down to earth.
• Tarik Skubal; Detroit Tigers - Skubal seemed like a guy to try to vulture in 2022, but then he got hurt, and Detroit turned in a solid 2023 with a 78-84 base runs record and quality contributions from guys like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Kerry Carpenter. At this point, if the people running the Tigers know what they’re doing, they need to push and build around this guy. But yes, he’s a hard-throwing lefty. If we could get him, that’d be great. Timing just doesn’t make sense.
• Griffin Canning; Los Angeles Angels - injury prone and unlike the other Angels listed above, he's a righty.
• Brandon Woodruff; Milwaukee Brewers - not a trade candidate, but a guy who was non-tendered. Woodruff is an interesting candidate because he’s basically been an above average starter his whole career, but had the misfortune of having a pair of terribly timed injuries - one preventing him from playing in most of 2023, and then another preventing him from playing likely all of 2024. If a team signs Woodruff, it’s going to be some kind of weird two or three-year deal where things balance out such that he’s pretty cheap during his year of rehab.

Credits:

• Basically all data comes from one of FanGraphs (contract data, team payroll, summary tables, anything with xFIP or Stuff+/Location+/Pitching+), Baseball Reference (contract data, anything detailing stretches of a particular season), or Baseball Savant (pitch mix, run value, barrel%, HH%, etc.). I also gathered metrics on IVB, VAA, and release point from Alex Chamberlain’s dashboard
• Thanks to everybody who read drafts of this or provided feedback on ideas, e.g., formatting, what buckets to put pitchers in, which pitchers are going to be hard to get, etc.
• tableIt.net made it very easy to format from Excel to something suitable to Reddit’s markdown mode.

Hi friends, I've lurked here a bit but never posted. Sometimes I see posts saying "is it too late for me to start baseball?", and that's prompted me to share.
TL;DR: 40 year old beginner, having a blast. It's (almost) never too late.
I played baseball from age 13 to 15, was never a star player but I loved the game. I stopped when I became obsessed with music, and that's basically what my life was about for the next 25 years. No sport, no gym, just maintaining basic fitness most of that time.
My 8 year old son randomly dug out my old bat from my parents' shed, we started playing together with it, and it sparked my interest again. Started watching games and thinking a lot about baseball.
Eventually I got this crazy idea in my head of playing again. Started going to a local cricket net (I'm in Australia) a couple times a week to practice throwing, did some running and strength training. I inquired at a local club, (thinking "what am I doing, this is dumb, I'm way too old for this") and learnt that there's heaps of old guys playing socially, and that my late surge of interest was actually not that unique.
Meanwhile, the music industry was starting to bum me out, so I started winding back the music (I was in three bands plus various other projects and freelance music work), and signed up to play. Still at this point thinking "I am losing my mind, why am I doing this?"
I'm now six weeks into the season, and I have no regrets. I'm fitter than I've been for decades, and I've been able to improve my skill much quicker than I expected. I started the year barely able to throw 60 feet on the full; now can make a strong throw across the diamond. When we started training in September I couldn't catch a single flyball; now able to catch most of them. Earlier in the year I was swinging and missing off a tee, but I've gotten on base at least once every game I've played since the season started in October.
But really the biggest message here is that it is FUN. Even if I play like garbage I walk away feeling awesome. Have met a lot of great people who I would never come into contact with in my usual circles. It is also a fantastic stress release and feels psychologically very healthy. I'm so glad I had this crazy idea and went with it.
So to anyone who's wondering if it's too late to start, my answer would be probably not. Depends on your ambitions of course, and perhaps there are age/health limits outside which it would be harder to enjoy the game. But if you're unsure enough to ask, it's probably not too late.
-- FOR CONTEXT: I live in Australia - I have a sense that in the States, softball is popular for older folks like me? But we don't seem to have much of that going on here. So I think people my age who want to play ball socially are mainly gonna play baseball. Not sure if this means the standard in the lower divisions is more inclusive than in the states, if that's offset by the lower population here and the general lack of interest in Baseball in favour of other sports. It's possible that the vibe is different in more baseball-focused countries, I am not sure.

I'm getting overly stressed out about picking a breed, I just want to make sure I'm doing the right thing for my little family and future dog. Please help me
​
Introduction
Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs?
This will be mine and my partners first dog as adults but we both grew up with dogs (him BCs, me working and show line labs and ex racing grey hounds) and are our family and friends go to for dog sitting so we have looked after bull terriers, golden retrievers, spaniels and rescue mutts
Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a reputable breeder?
We would like to go to a reputable breeder.
Describe your ideal dog.
What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why?
Old English Sheepdog - I love to groom animals so the ultra long hair appeals to me, they have the smarts, desire to please and energy of working breeds but are almost exclusively showline in the UK so are a bit 'softer'.
Flat coated retriever - I adore retrievers but my other half wants to try something a little different (as we have been around a load of labs and goldens). I think a flat coat fits this bill, plus they are a little less push button than a lab or golden which appeals, I like a bit of sass in my animals.
White swiss Shepard - We both adore German Shepards but are not sure we'd be able to handle that much dog, from research white swiss seems to be very similar to GSDs (smart, driven, loyal, energetic) but a notch or two down from a GSD. Bonus points that they are a 'grumble-y' breed and we both love chatty animals.
Other half is dead set against a lab or golden, having been around a lot of them he likes them but says they don't feel like the right breed for him, he can't articulate why but he feels it in his soul. I don't want a terrier or Sighthound, similar to my other half I just don't vibe with them as much as I like them.
What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?
Basic obedience and solid recall are must haves. We are toying with the idea of training the dog to help with my ADHD (get me my meds and help to interrupt hyper focus and overstimulation).
Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?
I wouldn't want to compete but I would want to take part, I'm not fussed what we do (agility/flyball/rally ect.) I just want an activity that I can do with a doggy partner and have some fun and social time.
Care Commitments
7) How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?
Realistically we can dedicate up to 4 hours throughout the day.
8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?
We can do 1-2 hours of off leash sniffing/running in the nearby country parks during the week and longer on the weekend. Ultimately looking for a hiking buddy, we live near the peak district and I want to spend as much time as possible there when the dog is old enough.
9) How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?
I adore brushing, it's not the same but we have a long haired cat (half persian) and grooming him is one of my favourite activities, I could do it until he was bald.
Personal Preferences
10) What size dog are you looking for?
Medium to large, no smaller than a Border collie
11) How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?
Don't mind shedding, house is covered in cat hair anyway. I don't mind a bit of barking but don't want to p-off the neighbours. Prefer less slobber but if it's for the right dog then sign me up to become a walking tissue
12) How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?
Very important, the vast majority of exercise will be off leash in the semi-rural area around my house
Dog Personality and Behavior
13) Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space?
Snuggly.
14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?
Eager to please, but I would like a little bit of sass, not 100% push button
15) How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?
I would prefer if they were friendly or at least accepting of strangers
16) Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?
No, lots of family and friends have dogs so we need a dog that will be ok with other dogs
17) Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?
We've got two cats, whilst the house is catified so they can get up and escape we would prefer if the dog wasn't constantly chasing them
Lifestyle
18) How often and how long will the dog be left alone?
I work from home 3-4 days a week, on the days that I am in the office the dog will be alone from 8:30-17:30 and we will get a dog sitter to come in once or twice during the day.
19) What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?
My other half, he will be an equal partner and really wants a dog as well.
20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?
We have two young cats.
21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?
No, but we would like to have children one day and we do live in a very family friendly place so there will be children around on walks.
22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?
Own our home
23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?
The UK, banned breeds are:
Pit bull type dogs
Japanese Tosa
Dogo Argentino
Fila Brasileiro
XL bully (from next year)
24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?
Summer - 20 degrees Celsius, winter - 0 degrees Celsius
Additional Information and Questions
25) Please provide any additional information you feel may be relevant.
I travel for work and am away for 3-7 days a month, during this time my other half will look after the dog, he is less interested in serious training so not a dog that needs a job or real challenge every day.
26) Feel free to ask any questions below.

After what seems like 50 lazy flyballs to RF going back to last postseason, it seems like the offense does not adjust their approach throughout the game or series. I understand they are focusing on launch angle and EV, but when the HRs aren't coming, shortening up a swing or putting balls in play can at least put pressure on the pitcher and defense. Last night, we saw so many big swings and misses with 2 strikes, chasing out of the zone, and not putting quality ABs together especially with RISP. I played baseball my whole life, so I know it's not as easy as "just hitting the ball" and there's a lot of variables in the postseason (better pitching/defense, etc.), but we are seeing the same results over and over.
I still have hope in the offense and am not the type of fan to trash the players, but I'm curious what you guys think is going wrong.
(Also, I would love to see someone in the dugout hyping the team up, having a hitters huddle, SOMETHING to spark the team when they're down but that's a whole other conversation.)

Introduction
1) Will this be your first dog? If not, what experience do you have owning/training dogs?

• First dog

2) Do you have a preference for rescuing a dog vs. going through a reputable breeder?

• Either

3) A sweet, quiet (not yappy or loud barky) and neat (as in, not drooly!) small to medium dog. I want a companion to snuggle with on the sofa in the evenings and play with, preferably a dog with lower to medium exercise needs per day, but who I could take for longer walks or fetch games in the countryside a couple of times a week. Not barky or aggressive, although I don’t mind a reserved dog. I would be the primary owner with some help sometimes from family. Ideally not a total velcro dog because I sometimes want to go to the cinema/etc, and I don’t want a dog like my neighbour’s which literally howls and pines from the second he leaves, for hours, until he returns. I definitely couldn’t bear leaving a dog that unhappy.

• ANSWER

4) What breeds or types of dogs are you interested in and why?

• I’ve been looking into whippets (Italian greyhounds seem too velcro?), greyhounds (although they are a bit big for me), dachshunds and bichon frises (too velcro?), and I do have a soft spot for corgis but they might be too vocal for me? Bedlington terriers are lovely but again I’m not sure if I am right for them.

5) What sorts of things would you like to train your dog to do?

• General commands and being good in the house/in a busy city. If dog likes training I’d be happy to teach tricks and fun stuff if that stimulates them. I might even join a club and teach them Flyball if they would find it fun. 6) Do you want to compete with your dog in a sport (e.g. agility, obedience, rally) or use your dog for a form of work (e.g. hunting, herding, livestock guarding)? If so, how much experience do you have with this work/sport?
  
• No (maybe in future, purely for fun, if they enjoy training)
  

Care Commitments
7) How long do you want to devote to training, playing with, or otherwise interacting with your dog each day?

• Several hours a day (I work from home) and all evening cuddles if s/he wants them!

8) How long can you exercise your dog each day, on average? What sorts of exercise are you planning to give your dog regularly and does that include using a dog park?

• 1hr to 1hr 30 a day, but with longer walks/fetch in big parks several times a week. Maybe some days of 30-40mins if I have a deadline, but I’d make up for it with letting them in my (fenced) garden or a longer walk the next day. Also happy with lazier dogs or an older dog that needs less.

9) How much regular brushing are you willing to do? Are you open to trimming hair, cleaning ears, or doing other grooming at home? If not, would you be willing to pay a professional to do it regularly?

• Happy to groom daily, although would ideally prefer a dog that doesn’t shed too much (if shedding can be kept to minimum by brushing daily then that’s fine). Washing/cleaning ears/trimming nails/ etc all fine with me. Even if the dog needs regular haircuts I will pay a groomer or learn how to do it myself. If I got a poodle for example I wouldn’t overly ‘style’ them, just keep them neat and tidy.

Personal Preferences
10) What size dog are you looking for?

• Small to medium (I’m a 5ft 4 woman and I’d want to be able to easily pick up and carry the dog!).

11) How much shedding, barking, and slobber can you handle?

• Slobber is a no-no and I live in a built up city so little to no barking would be preferred. Maybe just barks to alert or when playing. Shedding I can compromise on!

12) How important is being able to let your dog off-leash in an unfenced area?

• Not important. I’d be too nervous to!

Dog Personality and Behavior
13) Do you want a snuggly dog or one that prefers some personal space?

• Snuggly! But I work from home so if they can also snooze or play happily by themself at times or be trained to enjoy that that would be cool.

14) Would you prefer a dog that wants to do its own thing or one that’s more eager-to-please?

• Eager to please, as it’ll be my 1st time training a dog!

15) How would you prefer your dog to respond to someone knocking on the door or entering your yard? How would you prefer your dog to greet strangers or visitors?

• Maybe a gentle alert bark but nothing loud or aggressive, and I’m a shy person so if the dog is friendly with strangers/visitors, that’s great, but I don’t mind a more shy/reserved dog (as long as not aggressive)

16) Are you willing to manage a dog that is aggressive to other dogs?

• No aggression, please!

17) Are there any other behaviors you can’t deal with or want to avoid?

• Excessive barking, aggression, destructive behaviour (I would buy them all the toys and play a lot with them to keep them entertained but I have my own things I wouldn’t want the dog to chew up!)

Lifestyle
18) How often and how long will the dog be left alone?

• Average most days maybe left for 1hr to 3hrs - I work from home and have family so the house is rarely empty for more than that, BUT, we do go out for a film + dinner once or more a month, if the dog could be left alone for 5-6 hours max that would be ideal. (If not I would pay for a sitter, but would obvs rather save money and have a dog that can snooze/play with some games left for them. I’d also set up a camera to keep watch over them).

19) What are the dog-related preferences of other people in the house and what will be their involvement in caring for the dog?

• Family members would help with walks etc, but if I move out eventually the dog will move with me.

20) Do you have other pets or are you planning on having other pets? What breed or type of animal are they?

• No. But I have owned beloved cats in the past!

21) Will the dog be interacting with children regularly?

• No.

22) Do you rent or plan to rent in the future? If applicable, what breed or weight restrictions are on your current lease?

• Not currently. I might rent if I move out in future but obvs then I’d seek out dog friendly rentals.

23) What city or country do you live in and are you aware of any laws banning certain breeds?

• Scotland. Illegal here = Pit bull terrier type, Japanese Tosa type, Dogo Argentino type, Fila Braziliero type

24) What is the average temperature of a typical summer and winter day where you live?
In Scotland, Summer = average 15-17°C (or 59-63 °F)Winter = 0 and 10 degrees C (50 F)This is a mostly damp and cool place. Rarely extreme cold or extreme heat, though.
Additional Information and Questions
25) Please provide any additional information you feel may be relevant.

• I want a neat and sweet natured companion who will be doted on but who can be left to occupy themselves sometimes - ie not a total velcro dog! Also I have shift work some evenings at irregular times (family would look after the dog of course, but I just mean I don’t have a regular schedule during some short points in the year).

The dog sport of flyball has recently gained a lot of attention and popularity due to Crufts and ESPN’s TV coverage of major events. It’s a fast paced, loud, high energy sport. Ive been in flyball for 12 years and am currently training my 6th personal flyball dog. I have captained teams, as well as trained several other dogs (team dogs and private lessons,) and have competed on international levels.
If you don’t know what it is yet, check out YouTube. The video entitled NAFA 2022 CanAm Classic Flyball Tournament shows a great video of footage.
AMA!

Foreword

TL;DR if this post looks familiar, it's because I tried to make it earlier in the week and Reddit deleted most of it, so I am recreating it; you're not having deja vu.
Earlier this week, I tried to make a post about Abbott's numbers, him being due for regression, and his K:BB ratio as the primary driver of his upside. That post was here, and I think it probably lasted all of 20 or 30 minutes before I managed, with help from a buggy Reddit mobile client (insert obligatory comment about third party apps here), to delete the entire latter half of the post. What remained was essentially a half-thought, with no record of the rest and no summary.
What follows is a repost of the surviving half, updated where appropriate, as well as an effort at reproducing the other half of the post, with an eye towards Abbott's start on Sunday and the rest of the season.

Overview

Abbott is another entrant in an abnormally long line of rookie starters -- of various scouting provenance, from the long-awaited likes of Eury Perez to the "where did he come from?" in Bryce and Mason Miller -- to debut this season.
Turning in 3 scoreless starts, including in his debut at GABP, to start his career and sporting a 1.21 ERA through his first 5 starts is a headline that writes itself, not to mention the 18 K's and 3 BB's across 12 IP in his last two outings (vs. COL, @ BAL).
All of this leads to a natural question: is Abbott legit?

The Offenses

A natural question to ask when looking at these outings is how good were the offenses that Abbott shut down? (Note: league ranks current as of 7/2 and will differ from the ones in the original version of this post.)

• Home vs. Milwaukee (24th in runs scored, 29th in average, 27th in OPS): 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 6 K, 4 BB
• Away to St. Louis (12th, 13th, 8th): 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 4 K, 3 BB
• Away to Houston (11th, 18th, 15th): 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 K, 2 BB
• Home vs. Colorado (15th, 12th, 18th): 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 10 K, 0 BB
• Away to Baltimore (10th, 14th, 12th): 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 8 K, 3 BB

The short answer is that the offenses, with the exception of Milwaukee, were certainly no slouches. The Cardinals were going through a bit of a cold spell by their standards, but the Astros have actually looked more potent relative to the rest of the league in recent weeks despite missing Yordan (9th in runs, 11th in average, 9th in OPS over the past 30 days; 3rd, 8th, 5th over the past 15 days).
It's also worth noting that 75% of the runs Abbott has surrendered so far have come at GABP, the 3rd most hitter-friendly park (behind Coors and Fenway), so his home park is probably partly to blame, and despite that, Abbott still has a 1.21 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP through his first five starts. In fact, with Eury's blow up tonight, Abbott is the only starter in the league with at least 27 IP who can rightfully claim that they'd hold the ERA title if they qualified (Eduardo Rodriguez, 2.13 ERA through 67.2 IP being the other).
TL;DR Abbott didn't merely face bad offenses, and two of his starts came at GABP, so take his 1.21 ERA and 0.94 WHIP seriously (or as seriously as you can take in a small sample...).

The Underlying Numbers: models, strand rate, and fly balls

I would like to apologize to anyone who has read this far (potentially doing so twice, even...) and watched me hype the kid up, because this is where I have to pull the rug -- either the case for Abbott or my own credibility, and you all can let his next few starts be the judge of that.
His numbers (1.21 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 9.1 K/9) speak for themselves. However, the model numbers (Pitching+, Stuff+) seem to agree with metrics like SIERA and xFIP when it comes to evaluating his performance, and there are some trends worth analyzing in his strand rates and GB/FB rates.
By the models, Abbott looks like a roughly league-average pitcher. His 83 Stuff+, 103 Location+, and 100 Pitching+ don't make him really stand out from the crowd, nor do his 3.12 xERA, 4.58 SIERA, 3.78 FIP, or 4.77 xFIP. All taken together, he looks like your typical, league-average starter, a claim that feels almost blasphemous in light of his sub-1.5 ERA and sub-1.0 WHIP through nearly 30 IP, a small-but-non-trivial sample size.
A reasonable person, at this point, would ask: why? Why the hell are the models and his ERA predictors so far off? The answer, I claim, lies in two numbers: strikeout rate and GB/FB rate. See if you can spot the trend in the sequences below:

• K-BB% by start (chronological order): 8.7%, 4.2%, 0.0%, 47.6%, 21.7%
• GB% by start: 30.8%, 23.5%, 36.8%, 9.1%, 0.0%
• GB/FB by start: 0.57, 0.57, 0.70, 0.10, 0.00

It seems like Abbott's approach in his first three starts was drastically different from his last two, and we can see that in the results. His 6:1 K:BB over those two starts, coupled with an evaporating GB% rate, meant he was essentially living in a "strikeout or flyball" world, compared to a more balanced distribution in his first three starts.
Maybe this is a good thing for Abbott and reflects his changeup, which he utilized heavily against Baltimore and is his best pitch by Whiff% (32.3% on the year), and other pitches getting whiffs as opposed to weak contact for ground ball outs. Ultimately, however, Abbott's reliance on flyball outs and his very low HFB (7%, compared to a non-park-adjusted league average somewhere near 13%) despite pitching in the single most HR-friendly park, is a clear culprit of potential regression. (I should also mention here, since I teased it before going into GB/FB rate, that FanGraphs currently has his strand rate at 100% this year, despite showing 80% for his last start, neither of will hold, regardless of park.)
TL;DR Abbott is a flyball pitcher with mediocre stuff (83 Stuff+) and an unsustainably high strand rate (~100%) in the single most HR-friendly park who has thus far largely escaped the long ball (his 3 ER against Colorado were 3 HRs), a string of luck that may not continue, but that doesn't mean he's without fantasy value

The Silver Lining (or the Siren Song?): Strikeouts

The fact that Abbott is sure to see his 7% HFB rate rise this year doesn't necessarily mean fantasy owners should part ways with the kid. We know he is bound for ERA regression, especially given that he starts from a sub-1.5 ERA in a hitters' park with a league-average run environment is closer to 4.0, but the question is: how much, and will his strikeout upside compensate for that lost fantasy value?
If Abbott were to post a more realistic HFB rate, coupled with a K-BB% around 5% from his first three starts, he would likely see his fantasy value plummet. That lack of strikeout upside means he is reliant on avoiding hard contact and keeping the basepaths clear to provide good fantasy value.
However, his two most recent starts paint a potentially different picture. A K:BB ratio of 6:1, good for 11.25 K-BB/9, flashes of the strikeout prowess Abbott showed in the minors, is the kind of thing that fantasy managers dream of. Even with some substantial ERA regression, something closer to 9 or 10 K-BB/9 would make Abbott a very attractive piece in fantasy.
Is this flash of strikeout upside the silver lining that saves the young rookie's fantasy value in the face of an unsustainably low HFB rate? Or is it the siren song that lures unsuspecting fantasy managers to their doom? I honestly don't know my own answer to that question, so I wish you luck trying to answer it yourself.
TL;DR watch his strikeout rate (or K-BB rate) to see if he can stabilize around the higher K:BB ratio he flashed in his past two starts and in the minors, something like 3:1 K:BB would be encouraging, while falling back to 1.5:1 or 1:1 would be really concerning

Full TL;DR

Abbott has been remarkably good through his 29.2 IP so far this year, but his 1.21 ERA is propped up by some batted ball luck (7% HFB rate) that his seemingly-unremarkable stuff (83 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 100 Pitching+) will not be able to sustain at the most HR-friendly park in baseball. The real question, as it relates to his fantasy value, is what his strikeout rate will do.
If he builds on his last two starts and establishes himself as someone who can reliably generate whiffs, then he can survive life as a flyball pitcher in GABP. However, if he falls back to a 1.5:1 K:BB rate and his good fortune on batted balls runs out, I suspect this sub's patience for him will follow. It's hard to reliably measure xDAWG, but the kid clearly has it based on how he has responded to adversity in his past two starts, so I certainly wouldn't count him out, but GABP is scary.