Hey everyone, this will be my first attempt at a serious post on this sub. I’m not exactly practiced in articulating my thoughts (I’m more of a fiction writer) so please bear bull with any mistakes and please correct me if I’m wrong. The last thing I want to do is spread misinformation, I’m not an expert (or a financial advisor) on any of this. I'm here to learn, not to teach.
This post will be the first in a series of me reading through the entire Diamond Handbook (2nd) and just commentating on points I find interesting or discussion worthy. I will be asking questions as well as giving my own personal thoughts based on my understanding of the events that have transpired. I became an ape right after the sneeze, and followed a lot of the discussions back then, but have been zen for a while so I haven't fully kept up with a lot of the new developments.
I haven't actually sat down and read DD in a long time, so I decided to give myself a refresher and actually look at the Diamond Handbook (2nd) for the first time. I had read a lot of these posts as they had come out, so I had never felt the need to look at the full PDF before. For the apes that haven’t read it either, I recommend giving it a read. You can find the full DD library in the pinned post of this sub, and the Diamond Handbook is the first one there.
As I have been reading it, I’ve quickly realized that some of the stuff is a little outdated. That can’t really be helped since so much DD has been done between then and now, but this brings me to the two reasons for this post. The Diamond Handbook is likely the first piece of DD a new ape will be recommended; I want to spark discussion to clear up some things that are misguided or outdated in this handbook. The second reason is more of a personal challenge. Whenever someone denies the legitimacy of the DD, an ape usually responds by saying something like “Well, read the DD and prove it wrong”. The average MOASS denier won’t do this though, in my experience they just think it’s ridiculous on a conceptual level, and won’t take the time to actually look through all the DD available and construct a proper debate. I can’t really blame them for this though, spending so much time on something you have no interest in doesn’t sound like a fun time.
But I have a lot of interest in this, and I am an aspiring author who writes 400K word fanfictions for fun. I’ve got the time and the writing willpower. I am very big into trying to understand how a reader will interpret a piece of my writing, so I’ll be looking through that lens and will be writing this with the assumption that you have already read the Diamond Handbook (2nd). Please take the time to respond/correct what I say here, I want to learn.
With all that out of the way, let’s get started.
​
The Mother of All Short Squeezes (MOASS) Thesis, Published on May 26, 2021, by u(slash)HCMF_MACEFACE
Before we even get into the meat of this section I already see a bit of an issue. A lot of the language implies that MOASS is imminent, take this section for example:

*“If you don't believe me, just look at the chart of GME which our DD (Due Diligence/research/analysis) has been forecasting for a while now. The below pattern has only preceded massive spikes in price, but this time, those on the other side of the trade are going to have a much harder time suppressing the price like they did in January and March. Thanks to the activity on 5/25, we have entered the end-game. The MOASS is beginning.”* 

I think most new apes will look at this, then look at the date of posting (three years ago), and think this is delusional thinking. They will say that MOASS did not ‘begin’ because it hasn’t happened yet. This would be pretty short sighted though, GME has always been a Deep Value investment, long positions are called long for a reason. ‘Buy and HODL’ is such a repeated mantra because that is the investment strategy most apes employ. Like most investments, it takes a long time to realize gains. Your retirement account will be growing for 40+ years before you cash that thing out, GME is my retirement plan so I don’t expect it to be much different.
Just because the sneeze happened in a week doesn’t mean MOASS will, in theory it should be a very long event as both the shorts and longs have a test of wills to see who caves first. However, the sneeze was the ‘beginning’ because it was exposed a lot of the fuckery that is going on in the market right now, I think that is the message that should be taken from this section.

*“These terms are key to understanding the theory and speculated value of a GME investment. Hyperlinks to Investopedia, "the world's leading source of financial content on the web", have been included for most market terms and concepts and it is recommended to check them out if they are not clear. We will be breaking down some of the more complex terms and concepts within the post and framing them within the context of GME.”* 

After the introduction, this post does a great job of explaining all the concepts of the stock market that are relevant to the MOASS thesis. However, I do wish it mentioned some other stock terms for the sake of new investors. Since none of the DD is supposed to be financial advice, I can’t really blame them for these omissions, but at the beginning the OP does say they wanted the post to be good for newer investors, so I think some more pointing in the right direction should’ve been provided. I do appreciate the link to Investopedia, but this DD is already a novel, and the average reader might forget about that link by the time they finish it. So an additional link should’ve been provided at the end.
The two big concepts I see missing are Options and Wash Sales/Stop-Losses.
Options are interesting because they create a different type of buying/selling pressure compared to just buying/selling stocks regularly. There are concepts like gamma ramps and stuff that can be relevant when discussing catalysts for price movement. However, options are pretty scary for most investors, I’ve only ever bought one, and forgot about it so it auto-exercised for me (lol), so it’s not a concept I would call essential. I just think it’s better to be educated than not.
The much more egregious omission is that of Wash Sales and Stop-Losses. Wash Sales are extremely dangerous to new investors who still make decisions based on emotions and are not used to the volatility that comes with GME.
If you are unfamiliar, a Wash Sale is when a person sells a stock at a loss, then buys the stock again within a short period of time. As an example, let’s say you bought a stock at $50, then the stock goes down to $40.00 and you no longer feel comfortable with your investment. You sell the stock at a loss. You lost $10.00 on this transaction, but it’s not all bad. When you go to do your taxes, you can report this $10.00 loss to the IRS. This is good because if you make a $10.00 profit off another trade, you now don’t have to take taxes out of that profit, since the IRS will see this as you breaking even in the grand scheme of your portfolio. You didn’t actually make any money, so they aren’t going to tax you for it.
A Wash Sale is triggered when you buy back the stock you sold in a short period of time, this can even apply if you buy a stock in the same sector. So if you buy a stock at $50.00, sell it at $40.00 then buy it again. That $10.00 loss you took can no longer be reported to the IRS as an actual loss. So when you make $10.00 on some other trade, the IRS won’t see you as breaking even, they will tax you on that $10.00.
For a stock as volatile as GME this can be very dangerous, I know people who brought in the peak, then as the price went back down they triggered a Stop-Loss (auto-sale you can program to trigger when a price falls), only to then buy back in when the stock dropped even lower, creating a wash sale that fucked their taxes.
We say “Buy and HODL” a lot, but I think the ‘why’ of it has been lost in the meme. I personally buy and HODL because averaging down is a lot better for me than accidently triggering a Wash Sale. I fucking hate the IRS and don’t want any of that smoke.

*“SPOILER: GME and \[Popcorn\] have tons of FTDs reported.”* 

I just kinda don’t like the mention of the Popcorn stock here, it has never been a deep value investment. If you are unfamiliar with the Deep Value investment strategy, please take a look at the old Roaring Kitty livestreams. In summary, Deep Value investing is defined by looking for stocks that are extremely undervalued and unpopular due to no fault of the company. These external factors that are making the stock undervalued can be anything, shorting, COVID, stuff like that. But what makes it a Deep Value investment is always strong management within the company. If the company is not mismanaged in any way, then it is very unlikely to go bankrupt, and will have opportunities to make a comeback. GME has Ryan Cohen leading, a proven successful businessman that has already taken precautions to ensure GameStop never goes bankrupt. Popcorn just doesn’t have that. It is very short-squeezable, but it’s not deep fucking value.

*“Short sellers must eventually close, or cover, their short position.”* 

Ok, but why ‘must’ they? This is another point I think has been lost in the memes. There are two problems with just saying ‘shorts must close’ without providing context. The first is the simple fact that there isn’t a due date. Unlike a common car loan or mortgage, a short position doesn’t operate on a time table. They can wait forever to close, unless they get margin called.
This next part I’m a little shaky on, I’m probably getting some things wrong here:
Ok, well how are they going to get margin called? The problem I see is that these Short Hedge Funds (SHF) are making a lot of money by selling naked shorts. It’s really hard to get margin called when they are literally printing money, and since they don’t have to report these their books just look to be filled with an infinite amount of cash.
So, there are a couple solutions to this:
1, Government regulation. If the SEC puts a stop to naked shorting, these SHF can’t print money anymore. Eventually the interest from their positions will eat them alive, and they will get margin called. Unfortunately, MOASS has the potential to destroy the economy like in 2008, so they probably aren’t too keen on just doing this without creating some kind of safety net. So I can’t really count on them to help, because the government has a vested interest in keeping MOASS from happening. It’s just not something I believe will be the catalyst. Although they might just do it on purpose given the right reason, like pinning the economic collapse on a scapegoat, or by GameStop forcing their hand by exposing the fraud somehow. I’ve seen a lot of apes hoping for one of these reasons to come to pass, but for me, I don’t see enough motivation from the participating parties.
2, A price run-up. If the price of the stock can unbalance the books of the SHF enough then they could also get margin called. I’m not counting on this either, since the price is manipulated by the process of naked shorting. Sure, they are digging a bigger grave when they suppress the price like this, but it can also help smaller SHFs with exiting their positions with OTC stuff. Over-The-Counter trades are trades made off the lit exchanges, historically it was intended to kind of simulate a transaction between two individuals, like buying a video game from a buddy off the books, no taxes, no regulation. Unfortunately, this is abused by institutions and can’t even be used by individuals, making dark pools of trades full of fraud and undermines the free market. Smaller SHFs that are more at risk of getting Margin Called due to their lack of collateral, can make OTC trades with the big naked-shorting market makers to ‘close’ their positions using fake shares. Of course, this only passes the buck so to speak, but it’s a viable strategy for them since the big SHFs that take on these ‘bucks’ are less likely to get margin called. A lot of historic short squeezes happen because a small SHF gets margin called, then drives the price up and causes a bigger SHF to get called, and so on until they’re all in the grave. This is why I don’t really give a shit if the price goes up to $80 in a week, it’s not enough, the buck has been passed. (To be clear, I don’t have proof that this is the reason for the uptick in OTC transactions, it’s just a theory. If a smarter ape than I can get on this that would be great.) But, even if a price run-up itself doesn’t cause MOASS, it may give motivation for the true trigger:
3, Interest Rates. Here is the big one that I look at, that I believe will be the true cause of MOASS. Now please, correct me if I’m wrong again, I am just an ape who dropped out of college. So, from what I understand a Short institution has to pay a certain amount of interest to the people they borrow the stocks from. This is the cost of borrowing and is how these Lenders make money. For a long time, the interest rate was at like 1%, this means that selling one naked short could cover the cost of the interest 100 times over. However, let’s say that the interest rate becomes 110%, sounds crazy, but this would mean that borrowing the share would cost more than the share. This would destroy the balances of the SHFs and ensure they get margin called. Why would this ever happen though? Because these lenders want to make money. These lenders are the real winners of MOASS, and they aren’t talked about enough in my opinion. Lenders can’t sell the shares they’ve lent out, their income is in the interest rates, there has to be a balance here between it being more profitable to lend the shares or to sell them. If Lenders start to think that lending their shares aren’t making them more money than the alternative, they will raise interest rates to make these profits until SHFs can’t pay them, then the SHFs have to return the shares, causing MOASS with the massive buyback, then lenders can just sell the shares on the way down. Lenders have a monetary business interest in causing MOASS, so they are the most likely cause of it in my opinion.

*“This is the GME MOASS thesis. GME is a stock that stands to hit an unprecedented price point due to the fact that manipulators of the market have failed to bankrupt GameStop thanks in huge part to the Legendary Keith Gill AKA* u(slash)DeepFuckingValue*, Ryan Cohen, and all of the GME investors who took part in this saga. It may not be today, this week, or even this month, but one day soon, these toxic participants have no choice but to buy the stock to close out their short positions.”* 

I don’t think this is necessarily inaccurate, but I think it’s misguided, and the language here is a bit to emotive for my taste. I think the reason the company didn’t go bankrupt is because of the strategic share offering made by Ryan Cohen to build up more cash than the company’s valuation (at the time). All the other stuff was just dressing, DFV and retail did not make RC do this, this move by RC is what ensured the company literally can’t go bankrupt, until then (and at the time this was posted) it was still a risk in my opinion. So this huge thanks feels kinda like a pre-cum celebration, and I've never really liked putting Keith on a pedestal, he's just an individual investor, just like the rest of us.
​
FAQ, Published April 12, 2021, by u(slash)BYE_TRIANGLE

*“Why does Holding do anything?”* *“They need your shares to cover their short positions! They got greedy. Thinking GameStop would fail, the short sellers started Naked Shorting the stock. Long story short they created synthetic stocks with their special privileges as Market Makers. But they can’t cover a short with a synthetic share. So because of the Naked Shorting, the Short Sellers, multiple large greedy money managers, and Hedge Funds need a total number of shares greater than the number available to purchase. THEY NEED EVERY SHARE, EVEN YOURS CONAN!”* *“aRe YoU GuYs MaNipuLatIng THe MaRKeT?!”* 

Holding does something else that I think is really important. It proves that retail is not responsible for the manipulation of the price. You see it in the mainstream media every time the price fluctuates, they say that retail and Roaring Kitty is driving the price up for the memes, and that the ‘meme stock craze is dead’ whenever the price falls, claiming that retail is selling. However, it quickly becomes clear to anyone with the willingness to research that retail holds. Holding doesn’t move the price at all, so they literally can’t blame this sub for the fuckery that happens.
Now, on the flip side, I know people on the old sub to buy and sell with these fluctuations, they did it during the sneeze and I’ve seen comments claiming to do it last week. I think this is why Roaring Kitty really had to speak to congress about this, because a legitimate-seeming argument could be made that retail was buying and selling at high volumes. The loss and gain porn on the old sub could be presented as evidence. Here though, apes hold, we glaze purple doughnuts.
So when MOASS does happen, the massive price increase will be only due to buying pressure from SHFs, so they are the only ones that can take the blame for what happens next.

*“No one knows how high the squeeze could take the stock price. The best rational reasoning says that these numbers \[500k per share\] are possible through the laws of supply and demand. Furthermore, it is likely that the Short Percentage is a lot higher than reported, with many suggesting that the short-sellers, cumulatively, need more than 100% of the float to cover.”* 

A lot of naysayers will claim people are insane for thinking that phone number prices are possible. They will cite that it would make the company’s valuation higher than the amount of money in the world, which is true. However, with the nature of fraudulent naked shorts being fake, the price is fake too, and the valuation of the company doesn’t necessarily mean that the whole float will be sold at those prices. Yes, it shouldn’t be possible, by all accounts it wouldn’t make sense, but it is possible due to the naked shorting. Also, institutions that own shares likely won’t HODL out for the phone number prices, they will sell when they think it’s safe, and when they won’t get in trouble with the SEC for destroying the economy. The infinity pool (the shares that will be sold at these prices) will be a small fraction of the total amount even among retail investors. So the argument that I see against the possibility of this doesn’t hold a lot of weight.
Keep in mind that even though ‘buying pressure’ moves the price up, someone has to be willing to sell in order for someone to buy. So as the price creeps up from $100 to $1000 to $100000 to $8675309 someone will be selling on the way up to get there.

*“Synthetic long positions could be used to disguise their short positions as well, the mechanisms behind this practice utilize the options markets and could explain some of the crazy options activity that we have seen in GameStop the last few months.”* 

So uhm… I don’t understand ‘Synthetic Longs’ at all. Could an ape with more wrinkles elaborate on this? From what I can extrapolate, this may refer to an institution purchasing a naked shorted share from someone else?

*“While at the same time they employed the use of social engineering to slowly depress the positive sentiment for the stock on Reddit and elsewhere.”* *“You may have been called a Shill for one of a number of reasons. This community is very inclusive and open to everyone, but because of the blatant attacks this forum has suffered a lot of people are understandably paranoid. (Myself included). Please, unless you really are a shill, don’t take it personally.”* 

I want to address this, because there is a lot of misconception about SuperStonk. A lot of people will claim that this sub is just an echo chamber cult that can’t handle anyone questioning the narrative. This may seem true on the surface, but I think the reality is just that we’ve become hyper sensitive to the social engineering the old sub fell victim to, and I remember this sub being attacked with that as well. So whenever we see a post that has extremely emotive language, we become skeptical and down vote it. Emotions have no place in investing, that is a common rule touted in even the oldest investing books, so posts that try to incite an emotional response are shot down. Apes aren’t about to be manipulated again. That being said there are emotive posts that still get upvoted, ones with positive hype-filled narratives. Since these get upvoted and the negative ones don’t that sometimes gives the impression of an echo chamber. This is because the facts do support the MOASS thesis, so a hype title and opening paragraph is just more agreeable with the facts-based narrative. Some people are just scrolling on their phone and don’t have time to read the whole post.
However, if you go into the comments of these posts, there are apes investigating the profile history to determine if posters are bots, regardless of the pushed narrative. If you look past the upvote counter, apes are very skeptical of any post that isn’t based in fact or harmless memes. The comments rule the post, and I have to say I’ve very proud of this sub for staying vigilant in the wake of Reddit restricting moderation tools.

*“Ryan Cohen clearly believes in Gamestop, to the point of announcing that he will be taking equity as compensation. In fact, as of writing this all of the new Gamestop board members are going to be taking equity as compensation. This is seen as an incredibly bullish sign of the company's future success.”* 

This is one of the principles of Deep Value investing, I wish this was elaborated on more of why this is bullish. This means that the board, and more importantly Ryan Cohen, is tying their individual self-worth to the company. Due to this tie, they will essentially ‘go down with the ship’ if the company goes down. This means that the board and Ryan actually have an interest in the company doing well, instead of having an interest in making money off the company. You may think this sounds like the same thing, but it’s not. If RC cared more about money than the company, then he could destroy the company to make money (this is what’s happening to popcorn), but by tying his worth to the shares, the only way for him to become richer is for the company to flourish.
I don’t really like the language being used here, stuff like ‘clearly believes’ ‘seen as incredibly bullish’ are all pretty emotive and doesn’t actually explain why these are positive growth signs for the company, they are just saying it is ‘bullish’, the average new investor isn’t even going to know what that really means. Even though GME is extremely manipulated, causing Technical Analysis to become increasingly difficult to depend on, the investment is still rooted in fundamentals of deep value.

*“Below is a shortlist of some of the potential catalysts people are speculating about:* 

-A Stock Split, or some similar move from Gamestop that recalls shares
-Gamma Squeeze
-Gamestop’s Q1 Earnings Call
-Some speculate Gary Gensler (Newly appointed head of the SEC), may make some move that sets things in motion
-DTCC rule changes taking effect
-Appointment of a new CEO”
Yeah… this feels bad man. I’ve talked about this already, but we can rapid fire down this list.
The stock split didn’t work out, since those in charge of distributing the splits did it fraudulently. Gamma Squeeze is the kind of thing that could trigger a smaller hedge fund to get margin called and cause a domino effect, but I’ve shared my theory of the OTC action. Earnings are nice, but public sentiment has always been more tied to the media manipulation than actual facts. Fucking Gary.
On the subject of bringing in new talent, I do feel like a big move will happen soon. We’ve already seen a lot of job offerings from the Corporate side of GameStop so this could be the next phase of the plan. I really think that RC has spent these last few years taking precautions to make sure the company can’t go bankrupt, the last thing he wants is to turn out like Toys-R-Us. A lot of downsizing happened, so now he can start thinking about upsizing again.
I’m not necessarily saying that these things can’t trigger the squeeze, but I am saying that depending on something to start it is just inviting disappointment. I think the ‘no dates’ rule has been sorely forgotten lately with all the hype and speculation around Roaring Kitty’s tweets and stuff. I am a zen ape, it happens when it happens.

*“First of all, it is incredibly important to note your potential biases when determining if someone is just a shill trying to spread FUD. Not all FUD is invalid, someone may bring up a solid point against an otherwise great DD, and that could scare you. Remember that just because you do not like what someone is saying, doesn’t make it invalid. It is important users here work with constructive criticism to refine their theories.”* 

Damn, wasn’t I just talking about this? This critique isn’t going to just be wagging fingers, this is really good stuff that still applies today, and from what I’ve seen apes are doing a great job of distinguishing between FUD and legitimate criticism. I also want to take a second to thank the mod team, especially after their tools were restricted, they’ve been a great help.

*“…but since then retail investors have been buying on every single dip in the price… That's more than two whole months of buying-the-dip. Now, I will not speculate on numbers here, if you want to know more you will have to read the DDs on that.”* 

This is pretty outdated now. Apes have been buying for three years now, and with the advent of Direct Registering we have a much better idea of how much apes hold. I can say with confidence now that retail owns a floats worth of shares. Since there is so much naked shorting, a lot of institutions probably own their own floats too.
I glaze those purple doughnuts, yum.
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Citadel Has No Clothes, Published March 14, 2021, by u(slash)ATOBITT
Ohhhh, this one is special to me, I read it when it first came out, first time I was there on release night. Let’s see how it hodls up.

*“TL;DR - Citadel Securities has been fined 58 times for violating FINRA, REGSHO & SEC regulations. Several instances are documented as 'willful' naked shorting. In Dec 2020 they reported an increase in their short position of 127.57% YOY, and I'm calling bullsh\*t on their shenanigans.”* 

58 times. I don’t actually know how much that number has gone up, but I’m sure it has. I am reminded of an old saying, that if the punishment for a crime is a fine, then it only a crime for the poor. The crime being done to GME is class warfare, it’s nothing less.

*“$295,347,948,000 of that is split into options (calls & puts), while $78,979,887,238 (20.52%) is allocated to actual, physical, shares (or so they say). The rest is convertible debt securities.”* 

This is why I’m skeptical that it’s even possible for Citadel to get margin called by a normal price run-up. Let’s do some math here. GME’s float is at 232 million-ish shares, let’s say they shorted 300% of that, just to be conservative (lmao), so that’s 696 million. To take what the first post said, Margins don’t get called unless an entities’ collateral becomes less than 80% of what they’ve borrowed. If they use their entire $384,926,232,238 portfolio as collateral, then GME would have to soar to a price of… divide by 4, multiply by 5… $691.32 per share. That may sound relatively reasonable, but I don’t think a normal catalyst would be enough for that. I really think interest rates are the key, think about it, if they have to pay like 30% interest on all of those shares, their portfolio will be reduced by that much (kinda) and we can find a much more reasonable midpoint. Now brace yourselves, I’m about to spend an unreasonable amount of effort on something that is probably wrong because I don’t know shit about fuck about margins or getting called (I have a cash account and I lack rizz).
In order to calculate that we gotta do one of those double equation variable bullshit things we all hated in school, I forgot what they were called but I remember how to do them.
So, we have a few variables:
C = Citadel’s Portfolio = $384,926,232,238
S = Shorted Shares = 696,000,000
I = Intrest = 0.30
X = Price Per Share
Y = Citadel’s new portfolio amount after paying interest
So, X and Y are undetermined, but we have two equations to work with
C – I(X*S) = Y
This one calculates how much money is going to be in citadels new portfolio after paying interest, we calculate the interest by multiplying the cost per share, by the amount of shorted shares, and multiplying that by the interest rate, then subtracting it from their total portfolio.
Y * 1.25 = X * S
This one calculates the total amount those shorted shares have to be in order for Citadel to get margin called, by multiplying their new portfolio by 5/4 and calculating the total cost of the shares.
X * S has a direct value; we can plug the left side of the second equation into the first to get
C – I(Y*1.25) = Y
Now we just gotta isolate Y on one side of the equation.
C = Y + 0.3(Y*1.25)
C = 1.3Y * 0.375
C= 0.4875Y
C * 0.4875 = Y
Y = $187,651,538,216.03
Now we gotta find X, we can just plug in the other stuff.
(Y* 1.25)/ 696,000,000 = X
X = $337.02 per share for shitadel to get margin called on 30% interest.
Holy shit, now that’s what I call reasonable. See how much interest can completely fuck a portfolio? They lost almost half of their portfolio value to a 30% interest to this. This is why the whole market will bleed red on the run up to MOASS, they will have to sell half of their portfolio just to pay the interest.
Citadel is probably not a good example of this, since they print the naked shorts themselves... so they would be paying interest to... themselves... when they borrow them? Citadel is so fucked up, I don't have enough wrinkles for this.
But hey, I think the concept of what I said is fine. High interest rates can reduce collateral and cause margin calls. Hey, just out of curiosity, how much is the borrowing interest rate looking now?
16.5%
SHF are fucked.
​
Anyway, I’m writing this on a Wordpad document so I’m not sure if I’ve come up on the character limit, but I think I’m getting close so I’ll end this part here. Please let me know what I’ve got wrong or any insights you want to share, I’ll be sure to talk about any interesting comments when I do a part 2!
TLDR: I am reviewing the Diamond Handbook (2nd) and seeing what has changed in the three years since it’s been compiled. I have a bias in thinking that high borrowing interest rates are what will cause MOASS, and that is shown here. This is not meant to be an impartial analysis, just my thoughts. Not financial advice.

So this is how the story of most regards here goes - Put in some money - Get some ape first timer luck gains and try and replicate it for the next trade. Fail spectacularly but keep trying - End up losing most of your capital. Complain that you cannot afford any more SPY calls and REFILL your account.
See THATS your problem. Don't refill. If you're really good (and/or getting better as your ape brain is telling you), you should be able to convert $1 to $2. $2 to $4. $4 to $8 - You get the drift. You were dumb enough to lose the first 10k you put in. Now that additional 10k that you refilled is not giving you additional brains. Go and play with the leftover $3.5 and earn your way back up. And if you can't then thank me that your all time loss is just a fraction of your net worth as opposed to your entire net worth + all your + your wife's + your wife's boyfriends maxed out credit cards.
I am not sure whether to flair this as discussion or meme. Mods please guide me. Thank you for coming to my ted talk.

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5/ A business or organization’s category (or frame of reference) is the foundation of its brand. And its brand is the foundation of perceived value. The more perceived value your business or organization has, the more people are willing to pay for your product or service, and the less they are willing to consider your direct and indirect competitors. Full post.

1/ During the days of traditional advertising, marketing, and media, campaigns were developed using a linear approach: Plan, create, implement, and then measure. But because of the hyper-dynamic pace of the internet, the vivid lines that once separated the four phases in this approach have been blurred. Full post.
2/ Every marketing strategy should start with a funnel: a process by which prospective customers become aware of your business or organization and its offering (awareness), self-select to learn more about it (interest), continuously engage with your business or organization (interaction), convert to being a paying customer (conversion). Full article.
3/ An “origin story” gives your business or organization a soul and emotionally connects with its customers. It is also a good way to differentiate yourself from competitors. Thus, it is recommended to write your business or organization’s origin story as the narrative of your business or organization’s journey from where it started, to where it is today. Full article.
4/ Harvard Business School marketing professor Theodore Levitt said, “People don’t want to buy a quarter-inch drill. They want a quarter-inch hole!”. Innovation expert Clayton Christensen added, “People buy products and services to get a job done.” Historically, the primary cause of failed products and services is a misalignment with customer needs or wants. This is unsurprising, since 95 percent of teams do not agree on what a customer “need” or “want” even is. Full post.
5/ A business or organization’s category (or frame of reference) is the foundation of its brand. And its brand is the foundation of perceived value. The more perceived value your business or organization has, the more people are willing to pay for your product or service, and the less they are willing to consider your direct and indirect competitors. Full post.
6/ At the bottom of the pyramid, there are the most basic elements that we need, like food, shelter, and sleep. As we satisfy these needs, we move up the pyramid and we get into things like safety and connections with other people, as well as feelings of accomplishment. The “elements of value” works similarly. At the bottom of the pyramid, there are functional consumer needs/wants, emotional ones above it, then life-changing, and self-transcendence at the very top. Full post.
7/ In 2022, global luxury market grew +22% yoy on current currency or +15% yoy on constant currency basis, vs. the sector’s historical average growth at 7-10% yoy, according to the Bain-Altagamma report. Full article.

~RIGL Thesis – 5/18/2024~
Outstanding Shares 175M
131 Institutional Holders
111,129,461 Total Shares Held
63.36% Institutional Ownership
Total Cash on Hand 3/31/2024 = $49.6M
Total Debt: $101.5M
Cash Burn Approximate = $8M per quarter (6 quarters of cash without any increases in revenue)
Q12023 REV = $26M
Q22023 REV = $26.8M
Q32023 REV = $28.1M
Q42023 REV = $35.8M
Q12024 REV = $29.5M (Decline from Q4 likely from end of year versus new-year tracking of Rx and shipments of drugs, resetting of Copays)
Most Recent EPS -$0.05 per share
May 22, 2024 - Vote on S will take place, caution
~Statistics Applicable To Thesis~
333.3 million US Population (2022)
8,109,679,892 Global Population (2024)
~Drugs On Market~
~Tavalisse – Treatment for ITP, FDA Approved April 17, 2018~
~What is ITP?~
Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an illness that can lead to bruising and bleeding. Low levels of the cells that help blood clot, also known as platelets, most often cause the bleeding.
Once known as idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, ITP can cause purple bruises. It also can cause tiny reddish-purple dots on the skin that look like a rash.
Children can get ITP after a virus. They most often get better without treatment. In adults, the illness often lasts months or years. People with ITP who aren't bleeding and whose platelet count isn't too low might not need treatment. For worse symptoms, treatment might include medicines to raise platelet count or surgery to remove the spleen. Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) - Symptoms and causes - Mayo Clinic
~What is Tavalisse?~
TAVALISSE is a prescription medication used to treat adults with low platelet counts due to chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) when a prior treatment for ITP has not worked well enough. It is not known if TAVALISSE is safe and effective in children.
The cost for Tavalisse oral tablet 100 mg is around $15,404 for a supply of 60 tablets, depending on the pharmacy you visit. Quoted prices are for cash-paying customers and are not valid with insurance plans. This price guide is based on using the Drugs.com discount card which is accepted at most U.S. pharmacies.
Tavalisse Prices, Coupons, Copay & Patient Assistance - Drugs.com
TAVALISSE IS AN ORAL MEDICATION TAKEN TWICE DAILY WITH OR WITHOUT FOOD¹
A 12-week evaluation period is recommended
60 tablets = 1 month supply, evaluation period = 3 months, Cost for 3 months = $46,212 Cash, assuming cheaper through wholesale, insurance, discount cards, etc.
Dosing TAVALISSE® (fostamatinib disodium hexahydrate) tablets (tavalissehcp.com)
~Addressable Market~
“Our findings suggest that nearly 20,000 children and adults are newly diagnosed with ITP each year in the US, substantially higher than previously reported. Among patients requiring formal medical care, the economic burden during the first 12 months following diagnosis is high, with estimated US expenditures totaling over $400 million.”
Primary immune thrombocytopenia in US clinical practice: incidence and healthcare burden in first 12 months following diagnosis - PubMed (nih.gov)
The estimated prevalence of ITP in the United States is 9.5 per 100,000 people, with a global prevalence of over 200,000 people at any given time [1].
Immune thrombocytopenia. [ Oct; 2022 ]. 2022. https://rarediseases.org/rare-diseases/immune-thrombocytopenia
~Author Calculations/Estimates~
ITP estimated cases based on measured statistics 31,635 cases a year in the US and 770,355 cases globally each year.
~Rezlidhia – R Acute Myeloid Leukemia, FDA Approved December, 22, 2022~
~What is Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia?~
Relapsed, or recurrent, acute myeloid leukemia (AML) means the leukemia has come back after treatment and remission.
Refractory AML means the leukemia did not respond to treatment. Complete remission has not been reached because the chemotherapy drugs did not kill enough leukemia cells.
Both relapsed and refractory AML need more treatment to reach complete remission.
Your healthcare team will suggest treatments based on your needs and work with you to develop a treatment plan. Some factors considered for your treatment include:
your age
your health
how long the leukemia was in remission
treatments you had before
where the leukemia comes back
Treatment options usually include chemotherapy and a stem cell transplant if possible. Targeted therapy may also be used.
Treatments for relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia Canadian Cancer Society
~What is IDH1?~
Somatic mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) genes occur frequently in adult Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and less commonly in pediatric AML… Enhanced genomic and epigenomic profiling of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has led to identification of recurrent mutations that are prognostic and are candidates for targeted therapy. Somatic mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) genes, IDH1 and IDH2, occur in ∼6% to 16% and ∼8% to 19% of adult patients with AML, respectively.^1-5 In pediatric AML, IDH mutations are rare, occurring in <4% of patients.^6-11
Characteristics and prognostic impact of IDH mutations in AML: a COG, SWOG, and ECOG analysis Blood Advances American Society of Hematology (ashpublications.org)
~What is Rezlidhia?~
REZLIDHIA is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with an isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH1) mutation when the disease has come back or has not improved after previous treatment(s).
Targeted Treatment REZLIDHIA® (olutasidenib) capsules
The cost for Rezlidhia oral capsule 150 mg is around $17,468 for a supply of 30 capsules, depending on the pharmacy you visit. Quoted prices are for cash-paying customers and are not valid with insurance plans. This price guide is based on using the Drugs.com discount card which is accepted at most U.S. pharmacies.
Rezlidhia Prices, Coupons, Copay & Patient Assistance - Drugs.com%20is%20a%20member,on%20the%20pharmacy%20you%20visit.)
~Addressable Market~
The annual incidence of new cases in both men and women is approximately 4.3 per 100,000 population, totaling over 20,000 cases per year in the United States alone.[13] The median age at the time of diagnosis is about 68, with a higher prevalence observed among non-Hispanic Whites. Furthermore, males exhibit a higher incidence compared to females, with a ratio of 5:3.
Acute Myeloid Leukemia - StatPearls - NCBI Bookshelf (nih.gov)
~Author Calculations/Estimates~
Cases of AML with IDH1 would be 11% based on the median of statistics above (6% to 16%) leaving approximately 1500 to 2000 cases a year in the US. Appling the same calculations to world population would amount to approximately 38,500 cases a year globally.
~Gavreto – Treats RET+ Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer In Adults and RET+ Thyroid Cancer in Kids and Adults, FDA Approved August 9, 2023~
For the sake of common ground, I am going to assume these types of cancers do not need to be elaborated on as we all likely have a basic understanding of what they are. The medical conditions treated by Tavalisse and Rezlidhia I felt needed a more in-depth explanation because they are not common. I will elaborate on RET+ a little later in this writing.
~What is Gavreto?~
GAVRETO is an oral once daily prescription medicine used to treat certain cancers caused by abnormal rearranged during transfection ~(RET+)~ genes in:
Adults with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) that has spread
Adults and children 12 years of age and older with advanced thyroid cancer or thyroid cancer that has spread who require a medicine by mouth or injection (systemic therapy) and who have received radioactive iodine and it did not work or is no longer working*
It is not known if GAVRETO is safe and effective when used to treat cancers caused by abnormal RET genes in children for the treatment of NSCLC or in children younger than 12 years of age for the treatment of thyroid cancer.
Home GAVRETO® (pralsetinib)
The cost for Gavreto oral capsule 100 mg is around $11,745 for a supply of 60 capsules, depending on the pharmacy you visit. Quoted prices are for cash-paying customers and are not valid with insurance plans. This price guide is based on using the Drugs.com discount card which is accepted at most U.S. pharmacies.
The recommended dosage for adults and children 12 and over is 400mg orally once daily. Each capsule is 100mg, which means you will take 4 capsules. Gavreto should be taken on an empty stomach, at least 1 hour before or 2 hours after a meal.
Gavreto Prices, Coupons, Copay & Patient Assistance - Drugs.com
~What is Rearranged During Transfection Positive (RET+)?~
RET-positive cancer is caused by a mutation or abnormal re-arrangement of the RET gene. It occurs most commonly in lung cancer and several types of inherited and sporadic thyroid cancers. RET alterations also occur in an estimated 1-2% of multiple other cancers, including ovarian, pancreatic, salivary, breast, and colorectal cancers.
RETpositive Empowering Patients and Driving Research
Rearranged during transfection (RET) rearrangements were first identified as oncogenic drivers in NSCLC in 2012. The proportion of patients with NSCLC who have RET rearrangements (ie, fusion-positive disease) is approximately 1%-2%.
RET Fusion-Positive Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: The Evolving Treatment Landscape The Oncologist Oxford Academic (oup.com)
RET alterations occur most commonly in lung cancer (non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)) and the number of new cases diagnosed each year is considerable, accounting for approximately 37,500 [IG1] cases worldwide and 4,000 cases in the US (2% of NSCLC) (2,3). RET alterations are also common in several types of inherited and sporadic thyroid cancers and can occur in other types of cancers like ovarian, breast, pancreatic, and colorectal cancers, among others (4-8) adding >110,000 cases yearly worldwide (9).
What is RET Positive Lung Cancer? - The Happy Lungs Project
(2) Although medullary thyroid carcinoma represents 5-10% of all thyroid cancers, activating RET gene abnormalities occur in over 90% of hereditary and approximately 40%-60% of sporadic medullary thyroid carcinoma cases.
Patients – RETpositive%20Although%20medullary%20thyroid%20carcinoma,sporadic%20medullary%20thyroid%20carcinoma%20cases.)
~Prevalence of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer~
Most lung cancer statistics include both small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In general, about 10% to 15% of all lung cancers are SCLC, and about 80% to 85% are NSCLC.
Lung cancer (both small cell and non-small cell) is the second most common cancer in both men and women in the United States (not counting skin cancer). In men, prostate cancer is more common, while breast cancer is more common in women.
The American Cancer Society’s estimates for lung cancer in the US for 2024 are:
About 234,580 new cases of lung cancer (116,310 in men and 118,270 in women)
About 125,070 deaths from lung cancer (65,790 in men and 59,280 in women)
Lung Cancer Statistics How Common is Lung Cancer? American Cancer Society
Worldwide, an estimated 2,206,771 people were diagnosed with lung cancer in 2020. These statistics include both small cell lung cancer and NSCLC.
Lung Cancer - Non-Small Cell: Statistics Cancer.Net
~Author Calculations/Estimates~
Approximately 187,664 cases of NSCLC in the US based on an 80% factor.
Approximately 1,765,416 cases of NSCLC worldwide based on an 80% factor.
~Prevalence of Thyroid Cancer~
Rate of New Cases and Deaths per 100,000: The rate of new cases of thyroid cancer was 13.5 per 100,000 men and women per year. The death rate was 0.5 per 100,000 men and women per year. These rates are age-adjusted and based on 2017–2021 cases and 2018–2022 deaths.
Lifetime Risk of Developing Cancer: Approximately 1.2 percent of men and women will be diagnosed with thyroid cancer at some point during their lifetime, based on 2017–2019 data. Lifetime risk based on data through 2022 will available soon.
Prevalence of This Cancer: In 2021, there were an estimated 979,295 people living with thyroid cancer in the United States.
Thyroid Cancer — Cancer Stat Facts
About 44,020 new cases of thyroid cancer (12,500 in men and 31,520 in women)
About 2,170 deaths from thyroid cancer (990 in men and 1,180 in women)
Thyroid cancer is often diagnosed at a younger age than most other adult cancers. The average age when a person is diagnosed with thyroid cancer is 51.
This cancer is about 3 times more common in women than in men. It is about 40% to 50% less common in Black people than in any other racial or ethnic group.
Key Statistics for Thyroid Cancer American Cancer Society)
Addressable Market
Given Gavreto’s dual treatment capacity, the total amount of potential patients with NSCLC with RET+ indications would be approximately 2,800 cases in the US and approximately 26,500 cases worldwide each year using a factor of 1.5% of total NSCLC cases. The total amount of treatable cases for Thyroid Cancer would be approximately 650 in the US and 16,500 cases worldwide respectively each year applying the same 1.5% RET+ percentage rate. DOUBLE CHECK MATH…
~Rigel Pharmaceuticals Pipeline~
~IRAK/4 – Clinical Trials~
Rigel’s investigational candidate, R289, is an oral, potent and selective inhibitor of interleukin receptor-associated kinases 1 and 4 (IRAK1/4).
Toll like receptors (TLRs) and the interleukin 1 receptor family (IL-1Rs) play a critical role in the innate immune response and dysregulation of these pathways can lead to a variety of inflammatory conditions such as psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease. Chronic stimulation of both receptor systems has also been implicated in causing a pro-inflammatory bone marrow environment leading to persistent cytopenias in lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (LR-MDS) patients1.
R835 is a selective dual inhibitor of IRAK1/4 that blocks TLR4 and IL-1R-dependent systemic cytokine release. In preclinical studies, R835 demonstrated activity in multiple animal models of inflammatory disease2,3 and showed that dual inhibition of IRAK1 and IRAK4 provided more complete suppression of inflammatory cytokines when compared to an IRAK4-selective inhibitor4.
Development of R289:
In a Phase 1 clinical trial, R835 was well tolerated and inhibited LPS-induced inflammatory cytokine production in healthy volunteers, demonstrating proof-of-mechanism.5 Phase 1 clinical studies of R289 (an oral prodrug that is rapidly converted to R835 in the gut) are also complete.
A Phase 1b open-label, multicenter trial of R289 in patients with relapsed/refractory lower-risk MDS is currently enrolling (NCT05308264). The primary endpoint for this trial is safety with key secondary endpoints including preliminary efficacy and evaluation of pharmacokinetic properties.
~Bemcentinib – Bergenbio Partnership~
In June 2011, Rigel entered into an exclusive, worldwide research, development and commercialization agreement with BerGenBio for its investigational AXL receptor tyrosine kinase (AXL) inhibitor, R428 (now referred to as bemcentinib).
Bemcentinib is a potent, selective and orally bioavailable AXL inhibitor and the furthest along in clinical trials. In preclinical studies, bemcentinib was shown to have an effect as a single agent therapeutic in the prevention and reversal of acquired resistance to standard of care cytotoxics and targeted therapies and may also slow or prevent tumor metastasis.
Rigel received an upfront payment and is eligible for milestone payments and potential sublicensing revenue, as well as tiered royalty payments on any future net sales of products emerging from the collaboration.
~R552 Systemic – Eli Lilly Partnership~
Rigel’s investigational candidates are oral, potent and selective inhibitors of receptor-interacting serine/threonine-protein kinase 1 (RIPK1).
RIPK1 is a critical signaling protein implicated in a broad range of key inflammatory cellular processes including necroptosis, a type of regulated cell death, and cytokine production. In necroptosis, cells rupture leading to the dispersion of cell contents, which can trigger an immune response and enhance inflammation. RIPK1 inhibition has therapeutic potential in treating autoimmune, inflammatory, and neurodegenerative disorders.
Rigel’s RIPK1 inhibitor program includes R552, a systemic molecule being developed for the treatment of autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, and brain penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors for central nervous system (CNS) diseases. In preclinical studies, R552 demonstrated prevention of joint and skin inflammation in a RIPK1-mediated murine model of inflammation and tissue damage.
Development of R552:
In Q2 2023, the initial Phase 2a trial (NCT05848258) in moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was initiated by partner Eli Lilly.
Development CNS-penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors:
Currently in preclinical studies.
~Milademetan – Daiichi Sankyo Partnership~
Rigel has a long-standing collaboration with Daiichi-Sankyo for developing murine double minute 2 (MDM2) protein inhibitors in cancer, which were discovered in Rigel’s laboratories.
Preliminary safety and efficacy data from an early Phase 1 study of milademetan (formerly DS-3032), an oral selective MDM2 inhibitor, in hematological malignancies suggests that it may be a promising potential treatment for oncology indications.
Rigel received an upfront payment and is eligible for milestone payments, as well as tiered royalty payments on any future net sales of any products emerging from the collaboration.
~Rxxx (CNS Penetrant) – Eli Lilly Partnership~
Rigel’s investigational candidates are oral, potent and selective inhibitors of receptor-interacting serine/threonine-protein kinase 1 (RIPK1).
RIPK1 is a critical signaling protein implicated in a broad range of key inflammatory cellular processes including necroptosis, a type of regulated cell death, and cytokine production. In necroptosis, cells rupture leading to the dispersion of cell contents, which can trigger an immune response and enhance inflammation. RIPK1 inhibition has therapeutic potential in treating autoimmune, inflammatory, and neurodegenerative disorders.
Rigel’s RIPK1 inhibitor program includes R552, a systemic molecule being developed for the treatment of autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, and brain penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors for central nervous system (CNS) diseases. In preclinical studies, R552 demonstrated prevention of joint and skin inflammation in a RIPK1-mediated murine model of inflammation and tissue damage.
Development of R552:
In Q2 2023, the initial Phase 2a trial (NCT05848258) in moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was initiated by partner Eli Lilly.
Development CNS-penetrating RIPK1 inhibitors:
Currently in preclinical studies. Pipeline :: Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)
~Summary and Prediction~
The current share price of sub $1 does not feel justified. I would anticipate financial breakeven by the end of 2024 or potentially in Q1 or Q2 of 2025. The robust pipeline, progress, and expected revenue growth are enough to justify a much higher valuation. The debt load is manageable, but the potential for S is concerning. I believe that the S is not necessary and revenue growth and progress should speak for itself. I am not as bullish as the analysts at HC Wainright for a $15 PT, but the valuation should be at least 3x to 5x from the current value. This thesis does not highlight the patents surrounding their drugs either which some extend into 2035 and beyond. Perhaps what Wall Street is discounting is the fact that most of the drugs are very niche. However, the currently available drugs have an addressable market, albeit less universal than some, but you should value it in the sense of multiple facets (a 1000 headed snake is the phrase I wanted to use). I believe the company should be valued with specialty drugs in mind which would command a higher PE ratio. At the current day and time of writing, the value should be at least $1.50 to $1.75 ~at a minimum~ with a 12 month price target of $3 to $5+. I will be looking for continued revenue growth in each quarter this year and realization of revenue from Gavreto in Q2 or Q3 this year. The partnerships should not be discounted either and the current share price if it lingers here perhaps may attract a merger or acquisition. I initially began the research thinking that perhaps the drugs were too niche, but given the multiple drugs they are working with, I believe their revenue sources will continue to grow if you do not focus on one particular drug as the main performer. With the most recent inflation report being cooler than expected, I would suspect larger funds and institutions will be circling back to riskier assets.

I messed up. I messed up bad.
“Never get high on your own supply”. The human who sold me this data told me it was a saying from his world. But I had to be sure it was the real deal. After all, data drugs that worked on people without a brain interface installed? It was unheard of. But here I am [30 hours] later, and I no longer doubt. I feel utterly exhausted despite having barely moved. My every neuron feels fried. All 6 grasping appendages are sore from the repetitive motions, and my eyes are dry and unfocused from the long strain I have put them through. I feel intense pangs of hunger and thirst, as I haven’t eaten or drank since I started this test.
I still want more. But with a great effort of will I force myself away from the screen of my computing terminal and stumble to my pantry so I may attend to my body’s needs. As I gulp down nutrient drinks and chew some dried fruit, I reflect on the trance I’ve somehow barely managed to pull myself out of.
Simulations. A useful tool for engineers, scientists, and military strategists. We had never thought to teach storytellers or artists to use them. Humans had. And what they created was both miraculous and monstrous.
Humans decided to use simulation technology to create art and craft stories. It seemed that there was a human simulation… no, hundreds of human simulations, designed to invoke whatever feeling or emotion you could imagine. And possibly some you couldn’t.
I had started simple. A basic test of spatial reasoning, and later quick thinking, expressed through the medium of stacking colored blocks formed into geometric shapes. While comparable at first to a children's toy, as the speed and challenge increased I became increasingly hypnotized. The feeling of lining up and clearing four rows at once with the all too rare straight piece was intensely satisfying. Making a mistake, leaving a gap caused frustration and incompleteness like I had never felt before, and eventually fixing it gave a feeling of relief, of rightness. As the game sped up, I found myself more and more frantic to try and find places for every piece. The rush of success and agony of failure only increased as I prided and chided myself on my quick decisions.
Eventually, I could keep up no longer, leaving me only with a number. A score.
Could I push that score higher?
[4 hours] went by, and I barely noticed.
I should have stopped. I knew that what I had was genuine. But I wanted to know what else this data was capable of.
I navigated a colorful landscape, defying gravity with every action and finding joy in exploration and collection.
I slaughtered demons with a chaingun, turning the fear of being devoured into a rising sense of conquest and bloodlust.
I failed a single test of dexterity, sending me tumbling down a hole and erasing hours of progress, and I nearly knocked myself out from the shock of frustration.
I defeated a hulking warrior with a team of other adventurers, and the triumph of it was only amplified by the sting of failing several times before.
Freedom and entrapment.
Horror and domination.
Elation and sorrow.
Every new experience was an emotional high of a kind I’d never had before, and my hearts were racing with the myriad of feelings rushing through my mind. My imagination was going wild with the possibilities of all these new worlds of data and programming.
My self-reflection comes to a grinding halt. I need to stop. If I’m not careful I’ll get addicted and end up like one of those mindjackers, burning their brains out on data drugs. Supposedly these simulations can’t do that, but I wouldn’t have put it past the seller to lie about that kind of thing.
Well, one way or another, I’m gonna make a [alien animal that shares many traits with both giant squids and magpies]’s hoard selling these. Time to call my best clients…
[Time skip: approximately 25 solar years]
The Rise of the Galactic Game Industry: Fluke of the Black Market, or Human Marketing Genius? You Decide!
Dr’k-Nam, Head Investigative Critic for the Arts and Culture section of Twin Suns Newsgroup
Simulation games, also known as “video games”, have taken the galaxy by storm ever since their controversial introduction and subsequent series of bannings and legalizations across the galaxy. Simulation technology is nothing new of course, but galactic newcomers from the Sol system, Humans, used it in an extremely novel way: art and entertainment. According to their historical records, a significant amount of their entertainment industry is based around simulation games, and that portion has grown even further with their introduction to the galaxy at large.
At first, however, no one was interested. A simulation with little or no practical application, designed only to entertain? Most people preferred to stick with the entertainment they knew, or seek new experiences outside of sims. So what changed?
Simple: some anonymous human decided to sell them as data drugs instead of simulation games; data drugs usable by simply interacting with a computer program, rather than having to inject the data directly in through a neural interface. With this small, but completely false new branding, video games were ready to start spreading across virtual black markets like spoilers for the latest episode of Ace Flyer Kr’t-Kah on the galnet (side note: please have some courtesy to others and tag your spoilers).
Human governance and society at large had been reportedly as surprised to see a lack of simulation games from other species as they were that humans had them. But they were even more surprised when they started getting accused of pushing the latest data drug. This was an especially confusing accusation because neural interface technology was not widely adopted by humanity at the time, and only a fraction of a percent of their population even knew of the existence of data drugs in the first place. The revelation that most humans had video games of some sort on their PPDDs (personal portable data devices) threatened to cause an uproar in the galaxy, as paranoia around data drugs was at an all time high among many species.
After trying and failing to ignore the problem for long enough for it to go away, human governance, as well as human corporations producing video games, were forced to release statements, acknowledging that:

• Yes, video games were human productions.
• Yes, they could be addictive in the same way that any other pleasure-seeking activity could be addictive.
• Yes, there are games that even humans ban. Adult subject matter is restricted from youths, but additionally, games could be made manipulatively to exploit or develop gambling addictions, which is banned outright. Technically this ban isn’t even for games specifically, but instead falls under the purview of their laws against taking advantage of the mentally unstable.
• No, they did not “hack your brain” to cause neural impulses, unless you’re a a Syns-nah, who only partially exist in our dimension and are not used to any 3-dimensional sensory inputs, to the point where eating an unflavored [grain product resembling a cracker] can cause them vivid hallucinations.
• If other races want to ban them, go ahead, but humans can’t really stop data from spreading (their government has tried, believe me), and they’re not going to stop making or distributing them where it’s legal.

Ironically enough, the controversy made them much more popular, even in places that decided on banning them. The idea of a simulation that could act like a data drug without the risk of frying your mind like the real thing was enticing to many. The lack of side effects and ease with which the games could be distributed only increased both their spread and unregulatability. In short order, races throughout the galaxy were trying out a new pastime, and galnet connected multiplayer games were bridging the gaps between the stars. Now, several other races, including my own, are seeking advice from human developers in starting their own simulation game projects. Only time will tell what kind of games their unique perspectives will produce, but it’s unlikely that humans will lose their position as the most powerful and profitable storytellers through this new medium; they have generations of experience to draw upon, after all.
Rumors that the data drug sales pitch was a deliberate ploy by the human game industry (to drum up intergalactic sales) or by human governance (to spread human culture and influence) are still under investigation, but solid evidence for either has yet to emerge.
Edit: anyone posting untagged Ace Flyer Kr’t-Kah spoilers in the comments section of this article will receive an immediate, no-warning permaban.

I FIRE'd at probably the worst market conditions in a while on Jan 1, 2022. So it's been about 2.5 years.
Here's my net worth numbers, I am renting, so this is all invested in mutual funds. No additional side income. I am assuming a 3% SWR. I'm now 38 years old, single, no kids.

Date	Net Worth	Percent Change	Safe Withdrawal
Jan 2022	3.4M		104k
July 2022	2.8M	-18%	84k
Oct 2022	2.6M	-24%	78k
Nov 2022	2.8M	-18%	85k
Feb 2023	3M	-12%	91k
Dec 2023	3.3M	-3%	101k
March 2024	3.5M	+2%	105k
May 2024	3.6M	+6%	110k

Withdrawals:

• 2022: 15k ( Had cash on hand already )
• 2023: 77k
• 2024: YTD 32k / Estimated: 64-85k

Analysis / Questions
I think the highest my withdrawals would be this year would be 85k. Given that the lowest my SW number went was around 78k I'm thinking this might be a pretty good baseline to try to keep moving forward?
Aside from tracking my withdrawals, I haven't really been tracking my expenses too much. It's been a breath of fresh air to relax and not be so obsessed with the numbers on a weekly or monthly basis. I have a very simple setup for handling my checking and savings accounts with bills and regular spending that I can share in a follow up post if anyone is interested.
For major upcoming life expenses, I'm looking to buy some land out in the country and eventually build a home on it when / if I decide to move further away from the city center. My strategy for doing this will be most likely a personal line of credit that's secured with investments. I think this will end up being less interest than getting a land loan, but i'm not sure yet. One friend suggests only paying interest on this loan & keeping money in the market as long as possible, but idk. I like the idea of paying it off with whatever excess money I have in my capital gains limit and still be at 0% tax.
The area I'm looking at is an up and coming area that's currently experiencing explosive growth, so it seems like a good time to buy now and I'll be thinking of the purchase as an additional investment for now, since I'll still be renting for a few more years. So I'd keep that amount of money in my safe withdrawal calculations. There's a very good chance it'll appreciate as much or more than the stock market in the next 10 years.
Another area that I have a question: I have about 400k in my 401k and with my excess capital gains I can convert some of it to a Traditional IRA and then roll into a Roth IRA. I'm not sure if this is worth doing vs doing a capital gains harvest if we have another up year.
With a capital gains harvest in 2023, I was able to harvest around 20k and reset the cost basis. I think I could have instead converted 20k from my 401k to my Roth and paid around 10% tax on it in order to do that. I'm curious what y'all think is best?
ChatGPT seems to think the best plan is different depending on up and down years. On up years, harvest as much capital gains as possible while also doing a small roth conversion that keeps me in the lowest income tax bracket of 10%. On down years, harvest losses and do larger roth conversions since the losses can be used to offset taxable income and stay within that 10% bracket.
Learnings
- When you transition to FIRE it's very important to turn off re-invest dividends and have them sent straight to your bank account instead. I made a mistake with this in year 1 & 2 and ended up with a wash sale on some of my re-invested dividends. Then just withdraw extra money as needed throughout the year.

• Retire TO something. This has been mentioned a lot on this forum, but I FIRE'd to escape work hell that I was in and didn't have a solid plan for after. I was under too much stress to formulate much of a plan at the time and I paid for it. I spent almost a year in a deep depression. I would recommend figuring out what you want to do with your time while you're still working. Another thing to consider is you can actually do this stuff a little bit while still working, you'll just have more time afterwards! I did eventually start a few fun projects I wanted to try and made some major life changes, so things are looking up this year!
• Have a consulting side business if it makes sense. If you're planning to actually try to work then you want an LLC otherwise it's cheaper to register as a sole proprietorship. It's pretty fun to hop on phone calls and talk about stuff you're interested in. Very low stress, would recommend. I've only done a few, but I would do more. The major benefit of this is you can write off expenses for a bunch of stuff, which allows you to harvest more gains at the end of the year to reset cost basis and save more money on taxes in the long run. It's important to stay very diligent with separating your income / expenses for business vs personal. But this also provides an opportunity to get a ton of credit card points on a business card if you're planning to set up a home office with a new computer and stuff.
• Pay estimated taxes! I messed this one up last year and got a small penalty.

FAQ

• How did I FIRE at an early age? It was due to a startup that blew up. I consider it to be equal parts hard work and luck to be honest. Not everyone at my company got the same payout though. I had negotiated better terms throughout the time I was there, so that's something to keep in mind.
• Do I plan to stay single and no kids? I'm hoping to find another relationship which I expect will increase my expenses a bit. IDK about kids, but I'm assuming that if I do then I'll need to go back to work or lean on my partner's work if they wish to keep working. I'll make that decision once the time comes. Maybe I'll get with someone that FIRE'd at an even higher amount? hahahaha

Thanks for taking the time to read this and sharing your thoughts!

Currently there are 306,186,849 shares of common stock outstanding. Last week, the posted snapshot from Bloomberg indicated that in sum about 1.2 million shares have been bought by GameStop under rule 10b-18. This would decrease the publicly available share count to approximately 305 million. GameStop have now declared they may at any time issue an additional 45 million common shares and 5 million preferred shares.
Tinfoil Prediction: they will issue 10 million common shares at market price and raise the share count (ex counterfeits) to 315 million. That number is divisible by 7. After issuance of those 10 million common shares, they will issue one (fraction of a) preferred share for every 7 common shares (741). The preferred shares will be issued via an issuing agent which happens to be Computershare. Accounts held with the transfer agent, which also happens to be computershare, will receive the preferred shares directly and the remaining 60-70% of preferred shares will be dumped on the depo (DTC) or the brokers, who then can try to distribute them (lol) or rather fight for them because: Holders of shares of Common Stock held in “street name” through a brokerage account, bank or other nominee will not receive physical rights certificates and must instruct their broker, bank or other nominee whether to exercise Subscription Rights on their behalf.
The clue is in the name and preferred shares have some preferable status, such as regular dividends etc. In this particular case, they may have the non-transferable and non (cash-)substitutable right attached to a subscription of common shares, meaning the right to acquire common shares at a predefined price such as for a discount to the market price. This makes preferred shares inherently more valuable than common shares (take a look at BNED this week and their filing on 15 May 2024). Consequently, market participants may compete to receive the preferred shares and may pay a premium for common shares prior to issuance of preferred shares or recall the ones which may have been lent. This may put shorts under water. GameStop may use the proceeds from issuing 10 million shares to strengthen the balance sheet. GameStop might also incentivize holders of preferred stock further by issuing other benefits such as NFT divis, wu tang audio etc. However, the proceeds may also be used to finance equity investments in compliance with GameStops investment policy or repurchase of their common stock. The continuation of such repurchases under rule 10b-18 may be particularly interesting at the time due to the volume restriction based on average trading volume of the preceding four weeks at the time of a buyback under this rule. Currently, the 10 day trading volume is 73.1 million shares (according to Schwab). This is another factor that might put shorts under water. To spell it out clearly: given the action of the last week, GameStop could currently raise capital (but don’t need to) and repurchase a fat amount of its own common stock on the free market and yet remain in compliance with the safe harbor rule.
Substantial rises in the stock price could then incentive GameStop to issue more of their remaining 35 million shares of common stock to procure working capital or capital for future buybacks. However, a decreasing stock price could incentivize GameStop to issue shares and then repurchase them at a lower price, continuously decreasing the share count and thus applying upwards pressure on the price in the long run. Holders of common stock AND preferred stock need not worry about this since proceeds from the business activities could then be rerouted via preferred shares. In the end, every market participant had a right and chance to gain his preferred shares, right ;)
Edit: fractionalizability of preferred shares as defined in the recently published S3 document.
Edit 2: Relevant Barnes filing:
BASKING RIDGE, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 15, 2024--Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (NYSE: BNED) (“BNED” or the “Company”), a leading solutions provider for the education industry, announced today that its registration statement for its fully backstopped $45 million equity rights offering (the “Rights Offering”), was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on May 14, 2024.
The Rights Offering is one of the previously announced proposed transactions (the “Transactions”) contemplated by the Company’s definitive agreement with Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ: IMMR) (“Immersion”), and certain of the Company’s existing shareholders and strategic partners, that will enable the Company to substantially deleverage its balance sheet, strategically invest in innovation and operate from a position of strength. The Transactions remain subject to shareholder approval and other closing conditions.
Upon closing of the Transactions, which is currently expected to occur in June 2024:
BNED will receive gross proceeds of $95 million of new equity capital through the Rights Offering and a $50 million new equity investment led by Immersion; the Transactions are expected to infuse approximately $75 million of net cash proceeds after transaction costs;
The Company’s existing second lien lenders will convert approximately $34 million of outstanding principal and any accrued and unpaid interest into BNED Common Stock; and
The Company has received commitments to refinance its existing asset backed loan facility, pursuant to an agreement with its first lien holders, providing the Company with access to a $325 million facility (the “ABL Facility”) maturing in 2028. The refinanced ABL Facility will meaningfully enhance BNED’s financial flexibility and reduce its annual interest expense.
Through the Rights Offering, BNED will issue 900,000,000 shares of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Common Stock”) at a cash subscription price (the “Subscription Price”) of $0.05 per share. In the Rights Offering, BNED will distribute to each holder of record of its Common Stock on May 14, 2024 (the “Record Date”) one non-transferable subscription right (each, a “Subscription Right”) for every share of Common Stock owned by such holder on the Record Date, and each Subscription Right will entitle the holder to purchase 17 shares of Common Stock. Each holder that fully exercises their Subscription Rights will be entitled to Over-Subscription Rights to subscribe for additional shares of Common Stock that remain unsubscribed as a result of any unexercised Subscription Rights, which allows such holder to subscribe for additional shares of Common Stock up to the number of shares purchased under such holder’s basic Subscription Right at $0.05 per share.
If any Subscription Rights remain unexercised upon the expiration of the Rights Offering after accounting for all Over-Subscription Rights exercised, the standby purchasers led by Immersion, Outerbridge Capital Management, LLC and Selz Family 2011 Trust will collectively purchase, at the Subscription Price, up to $45 million in shares of Common Stock not subscribed for by the Company’s stockholders.
The Company will not issue fractional shares in the Rights Offering or cash in lieu of fractional shares of Common Stock. Any fractional shares of Common Stock that would be created by an exercise of the Subscription Rights will be rounded to the nearest whole share.
The Company expects that the net proceeds of the offering will be used to pay expenses in connection with the Transactions and reduce the balance under the Company’s ABL Facility.
The Company expects that Computershare Trust Company N.A., the subscription agent for the Rights Offering, will mail rights certificates and a copy of the prospectus for the Rights Offering to holders of record of Common Stock as of the Record Date beginning on or about May 15, 2024. Holders of shares of Common Stock held in “street name” through a brokerage account, bank or other nominee will not receive physical rights certificates and must instruct their broker, bank or other nominee whether to exercise Subscription Rights on their behalf.
The subscription period will expire at 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time, on June 5, 2024. However, the Company may extend the period for exercising the Subscription Rights. Subscription Rights that are not exercised by the expiration date of the Rights Offering will expire and will have no value.
The shares of Common Stock to be issued upon exercise of the Subscription Rights will be listed for trading on the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) under the symbol “BNED.” The Subscription Rights are non-transferable and the Company will not be listing the Subscription Rights on the NYSE or any other national securities exchange.
Neither the Company nor its Board of Directors has made or will make any recommendation to holders regarding the exercise of Subscription Rights. Holders should make an independent investment decision about whether or not to exercise their Subscription Rights based on their own assessment of the Company’s business, the Rights Offering and the other Transactions.
Questions about the Rights Offering or requests for a copy of the prospectus related to the Rights Offering may be directed to the Information Agent, Innisfree M&A Incorporated, at (877) 800-5185. (Banks & Brokers may call collect: (212) 750-5833.
Other Important Information
The issuance and sale of shares of Common Stock pursuant to the Rights Offering is subject to, among other things, the approval of our stockholders at a special meeting (the “Special Meeting”) to be held on June 5, 2024. If the issuance and sale of our Common Stock pursuant to the Rights Offering is not approved at the Special Meeting, then the Rights Offering will be cancelled. The Rights Offering is being made pursuant to the Company’s registration statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-278799), which was declared effective on May 14, 2024. The Company reserves the right to cancel or terminate the Rights Offering at any time. This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any Subscription Rights or any other securities to be issued in the Rights Offering or any related transactions, nor shall there be any offer, solicitation or sale of Subscription Rights or any other securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
Edit 3: Barnes pumped 150% on Friday.

Apes, when MOASS finally hits tomorrow and these dipshits assets get frozen and they're drained of everything they're worth, I think that it would be a shame for his billion dollar estate to be let vacant or sold to some other asshole, and would instead love to see it preserved and made into a public museum/cultural site dedicated to their crimes, and similar acts of financial terrorism throughout history.
Therefore, if that property ever gets auctioned off or otherwise comes up for sale, I propose that we apes each take an insignificant fraction of our earnings to buy the property and convert it into a UNESCO world heritage site.

Thursday, February 2nd.

Essay written by westerncanon and ReportCensorship founder u/gabriel_rock
Reddit's Moderation System
Reddit is known to delegate most of its moderation to private subreddits which are essentially run by unpaid volunteers. These volunteers often enforce additional rules with no sensible reasoning but that of exerting mediocrity at its highest level, of having something, anything to remove or someone to gratuitously expel in what is effectively a private censorship culture in action.
Is it pleasurable to witness another come begging at your feet to appeal a post removed for seemingly no justification? Does it feel powerful to erase comments you may simply and mysteriously dislike, or that has struck your learned feelings and fears or opposed your beliefs? Is it joyful to see yourself as if you're the sole authority, the "king" of your own private forum, controlling who can and cannot access it, by blocking their IP addresses and accounts from the system? I assume at least one of these emotions is breast feeding ninety-nine percent of currently active moderators and their so called, almost sacred and made up on time "rules".

"No Bumping!"

Don't, don't, don't, don't, don't!
Some of these rules may serve a purpose, most act as self-centered traps. Truly, many of these freedom loving citizens from vibrant democracies who condemn "autocracies" show their true colors whenever an infinitesimal fraction of power is granted to them with little restriction. And I mean infinitesimal, as a police officer patrolling the sunset boulevard on a casual sunny day holds a thousand times more authority than Reddit's employees, so let's not even mention those who work as non-salaried workers under no contract (That's you, community moderator).
Now, onto a more shocking revelation. I recently began writing original opinion articles in this subreddit, and republished one of them (about James Joyce) in another subreddit dedicated to the author. The article enjoyed a warm reception, but the same could not be said about the second, which analysed Ocarina of Time as a video game classic and argued whether or not games should be incorporated in the western canon. Several other subreddits related to the legend of zelda series simply removed the analysis after a mere fifteen minutes of its publication, including nintendo. Most didn't offer a reason, and the former a ridiculous one bordering on idiocracy. Did they think I was reposting that article from another website, even though I signed it at the top? Were they insulted by quality and intelligence? I don't know, and honestly, I can't bring myself enough to care and ask.
Arguments evoking legality are frail at best; what's illegal in the United States may be legal elsewhere, but I acknowledge Reddit has an image to keep towards its target audience. A minimum set of rules must be followed in order to ensure a larger share of the general public will comfortably access the site and its user-generated content. But if one argues that without rules the site would degenerate in a certain manner, in face of the very opposite, its excess, I believe the same would happen.
In the midst of many arrogant, power-hungry fools who enjoy setting multiple empty diktats for their subjects to follow and obey, any community I start here will try to behave differently.
This Op-Ed will not be republished by me in any other subreddits for obvious reasons.
*\*

I created Djikstra's Enigmatic Puzzle Cube. It was a solo project intended to be my first game release and a love letter to puzzle games, rotational geometry, and 2048. Despite the fact that I've sold only 22 copies, and is therefore a financial disaster on ROI (I could literally work at McDonalds and get paid more for each of my dev hours!), I consider the game a success from the point of view of being a well-made, fun, and artistically expressive game. Total reception however, is extremely positive, with 5 glowing reviews. And for people I communicated with directly about their purchase (that didn't leave a review), they still gave me extremely positive feedback.
I still put out updates and bug fixes on this game. Why do I continue to support this game with updates & fixes? The only rational explanation is I enjoy my own suffering. Van Gogh would be proud of me.
Why did I make this game? Because I played the hell out of 2048 for the past two years, and thought... "what if this were in 3D?" I loved the idea of 3-dimensional 2048 so much that I spent ~400 hours of my life to make this game in development hours alone. I wanted the game to also have a magical/mystical air, so I gave it magical combinations. Let's now get into the data.
Introductory notes: I began marketing efforts in November 28. Launch date was planned to be mid-December, with the plan being on extending the 33% discount into the Steam December sale. I personally don't want to work on multi-year projects as a solo dev. If I'm going to work alone, I like to keep the scope extremely narrow so that I don't invest a large fraction of my time into a dud project.
For the most part, most success on the project is directly derived from my inner circle and outer circle connections. I would say that the amount of non-social sales on my game probably account for maybe 10% to 20% of sales. The data below should be examined with that in mind.
Data!!!
Wishlist Actions (Nov - Dec) data on the wishlist actions up to and at launch date.
Analysis: I had 50ish wishlists at launch. A lot of wishlists came from social circles with people I know either directly or indirectly via connections. I'd say only 30%ish of wishlists were unique steam users through steam page discovery. Only a small fraction of those wishlists converted over to sales.
First month of sales (Dec-Jan) data on the game sales within the first four weeks of launch
Analysis: 17 units sold in the first month. A lot of these sales were due to personal social connections. A thin fraction of these units were sold via steam discovery.
Wishlist Activations (Dec-Jan) data on units sold via wishlist within the first month of launch.
Analysis: Overall, I didn't expect much from wishlisting. My thoughts are that they are there as general support for the product minus willingness to pay for the product. Which is absolutely fine. Perhaps some of these can still be converted to sales during discount sales.
Lifetime wishlist actions (Additions, deletes, activations)
Analysis: Having nearly no visibility means that I've tapped into nearly 0% of my growth potential. As a result, I am not surprised that I am seeing slow linear growth at the rate of a few wishlists per month. It actually feels good to see that slow, linear increase. I much prefer this to a flat/horizontal graph.
Lifetime sales (sales, key activations, revenue, returns)
Analysis: At 22 units sold and 2 returns, it is maybe one step above amateur in its performance on steam. In terms of a low marketing budget product, that's still a 'success' in that I managed to sell more than 5 units.
What were my greatest challenges/struggles:
The greatest challenge I faced wasn't actually making the game itself. I've been working with game development within the context of a serious hobby (a hobby with the intent of pursuing excellence) since 2015, and I've been programming since 2012. There were some challenges I faced in producing the complicated rotational system and doing rotation-independent directional merging, but this was an overall fun and moderately simple project to make.
I would actually say that the greatest challenge is getting people to try the game, even for free. I took about 5 or 10 metaphorical steps back and really examined what the commonly suggested social media landscape actually looks like. In a social aesthetic sense, it's ugly. A lot of game development reddit communities used to be vibrant and thriving places. Now, reddit's game development and game discovery communities are Fist of the North StaMad Max wastelands. The social media communities we use are now effectively dead for the purposes of discovery. In summary, getting people to care about your game is far, far more difficult than making the game in the first place.

When I google on this, I get thousands of simple results about single Roth conversions. I can't find anything that addresses how to handle complex (multiple choice) Roth-conversion situations.
This post is not about which securities to hold in which accounts. It is only about, which tax deferred accounts to Roth convert funds from, and in what order. I will call these "Trad. IRAs" but it's actually a mix of that plus 403b, 401k etc.
Also: All the funds in the Trad. IRAs are fully tax-deferred. No backdoors (or whatever) have been attempted.
Okay then,
We're retiring soon, are mid-60s, and have multiple Trad. IRA accounts:

• One is Inherited and must be converted within 6 years (that's 10 years after mom died). This one is relatively small.
• The wife is two years older so will have RMDs sooner. Hers is middling size.
• Mine is the single biggest one.
• We don't have any particular health issues so hopefully we sitll have decades. But I will probably die a few years before her... let's just say I lived less healthily, laugh.

Pretty much all our money is in S&P 500 index ETFs. We have a little in MMAs, I bonds, and individual stocks ... just call it 90% in the stock market. In it for the long haul.
We're using NewRetirement software and it's clear that we want to put of social security until we're 70, and do a lot of Roth conversion now. Fortunately we can cover all the taxes with our taxable accounts.
The goal here is to maximize lifetime returns while minimizing lifetime taxes. So we're paying taxes up front to avoid large RMDs pushing us into high tax brackets late in life. In particular, in 2024 and 2025 we're maxxing the 24% tax bracket (and also trying to watch IRMAA cliffs). I guess we will max the 28% tax brackets starting in 2026, but that's a little way off.
Thanks for staying with me. :-)
As I see it, the goal is NOT to "convert everything"... it's to convert it down to where we minimize taxes in the short and the long term. To balance it over time. But what exactly does that mean? For example,

• I am guessing that we'll want to completely convert the Inherited IRA this year. It can certainly "fit within" the overall amount we want to convert to max the 24% bracket this year. Is there any reason to not convert this whole thing this year? I figure it will simply reduce complexity (one less little account to worry about), when it's the only one with RMDs required now anyway. Okay, past this little one,
• I myself have one big one, and the wife (2 years older, so RMDs start 2 years sooner) has a middling-size one (about one third of mine). What's a plan for, basically, big one versus smaller one?
• And what is the ultimate goal in terms of target dollars in the two accounts? Should we be pushing hard to maximize e.g. 28% tax bracket (starting 2026) until finally we reach ... what? What goal in terms of percent converted or average tax bracket or what?

NewRetirement is saying that if we max the 24% bracket these two years and then max the 28% bracket the entire rest of our lives, we will just barely be brushing the 33% bracket from time to time. But these rely on, e.g., expected average rates of return of 8% for our mostly-S&P 500 holdings, etc. Of course the actual future will never be completely average. Still, how should we manage these two IRAs, etc.?
Maybe I should be asking , What do we want it to look like in the long run? Should we be trying to pay off the wife's sooner? Or should we be trying to make them both be about equal in size (which would mean we convert much more of mine than hers, for the coming years)?
Eh, I've bent your ear enough. Like I say, I have trouble finding anything that addresses Roth conversion strategy vs. multiple accounts.
Your thoughts? Thanks!

In recent years, sustainable real estate investing has become a critical consideration for investors worldwide. As we move toward a more environmentally conscious future, integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into real estate investment decisions is no longer optional—it’s table stakes for real assets.
Key Trends in Sustainable Real Estate Investing:
High ESG Standards Raise the Bar:
The sustainable real estate market is growing rapidly, with key players leading the way in integrating ESG considerations throughout the investment process.
According to the EVORA Global Insights into Real Estate Investment Sustainability (IRIS) 2023 report, one-third of global investors are spearheading this trend.
Investors managing over $20 billion in assets are at the forefront, while an increasing number of investors with $5 billion or more in assets are closely following suit.
Clearer sustainable finance regulations, investor scrutiny, legal interpretations, and the risk of reputational damage and financial penalties are driving this shift.
Leveraging Sustainable Technology for Compliance:
Purpose-built technology platforms play a crucial role in meeting stringent regulations.
Solutions like SIERA provide robust regulatory reporting capabilities for collecting, managing, and disclosing investment-grade ESG data.
Asset managers and financial institutions can use SIERA to prepare Principle Adverse Impact (PAI) disclosure reports for the 2023 EU SFDR submissions.
Leveraging sustainability technology enhances efficiency, reduces resources needed for compliance, and minimizes the risk of errors.
Reducing ESG Risk for Resilient Investment Decisions:
Sustainable practices not only align with global goals but also mitigate risks.
By embracing sustainable technology and data insights, investment managers can optimize resource utilization, reduce costs, and deliver high-performing buildings.
Transforming Real Assets into Digital: Tokenization
Beyond sustainability, another transformative trend is the tokenization of real assets. Here’s a glimpse:
Tokenization of Real Assets:
Involves converting traditional assets (e.g., real estate, art, government bonds) into digital form for use in the cryptocurrency and blockchain ecosystem.
Expands investment opportunities and significantly changes the financial market.
Blockchain powers the tokenization of commercial real estate equity, offering fractionalized yet liquid ownership of unique, high-yield assets.
It also simplifies buying and selling homes, making the home-buying experience more efficient.
In conclusion, sustainable digital assets and real estate tokenization are reshaping the investment landscape. As investors, embracing these trends ensures not only financial returns but also positive impacts on our planet and communities. 🌱💡🏢 🌿💻 #NFT #Sustainability #nftrealestate #nftproperty #nfts #whatisdao

One possible strategy that has been brought up for GameStop to counter SHFs is the issuance of a dividend to attack the millions (billions?) of synthetic shares that exist.
Example: there are 306M shares supposedly "outstanding" but there very well may be upwards of 1B shares in actual circulation and held in various Ape's accounts. We'll use 1B for the example; now if GameStop chooses to use $306M to issue a dividend of $1 per share, then the SHFs must actually pay out $1B to shareholders.
From what I can recall, the rebuttal to this has always been that GameStop doesn't yet bring in enough profit for this to make a difference. Even if GameStop issued its entire ~$1B cash on hand as a dividend, that would be only ~$3 per share, and the combined SHFs/banksters could easily eat this hit and survive another day, but GameStop's ammo would be completely spent.
Now... What GameStop needs is a vehicle to make consistent money in order to keep the consistently delivering these "dividend-blows". Now, where does GameStop have an insanely zealous, relentless group of supporters (and potential-future-customers)? Oh yeah, the Apes who HODL GME!!!
Ok, stay with me here... What if GameStop offered a product (preferred stock? depository stock? subscription rights?) whose proceeds were guaranteed to fund dividends back to those HODLers? Well, the possibility of funding dividends in this way is specifically described in the S-3ASR! Remember that easy example from earlier? Let's run it again, with something a bit extra.
Example: GameStop sells $306M worth of a product to the Apes. GameStop then issues $306M in dividends at a rate of $1 per each share "outstanding". There are 1B shares (synthetic or otherwise) that exist, and the vast majority of that 1B are probably held by Apes. Thus, ~$1B in funds are subsequently distributed to the Apes. Furthermore, the glorious part is that those additional funds to make up the difference between $306M and $1B comes straight from the pockets of the MMs and Brokerages who have been fucking with GME for 3+ years and straight into the accounts of the Apes who HODL.
If you haven't realized it yet, here it is in plain gaming terms. IT IS THE INFINITE MONEY GLITCH!!!! Ape money in < Ape money out. And that extra money coming out is extracted directly from the SHFs... CONTINUOUSLY until they either close their shorts or admit to their synthetics fraud. NO CELL, NO SELL!!!!!
And anyway, you DON'T need to SELL. YOU'LL BE RECEIVING INFINITE MONEY DIVIDENDS. Buckle up.
(I also had some thoughts as to how GameStop's adventures with crypto since the Sneeze could play into these "products" that the S-3ASR describes and also as to how GameStop lays out preliminary provisions for shareholders to be able to convert or redeem their securities such that may be able to buy-in on these new products and contribute to the infinite money glitch without needing physical cash, thereby preventing Apes from needing to sell their GME for the cash to participate in this once-in-a-lifetime hack. It's now past 3am so I'm done, but if this post gains any momentum, I may come back to add those thoughts in.)
EDIT: Some more thoughts, based on a comment reply I posted. Here goes...
In the S-3ASR, GameStop mentions how they have the right to sell new types of securities on any exchange (or no exchange - direct to customers).
They also talk about the preferred stock redemption process which is kinda lengthy but the jist is that the preferred stock can be broken down into "fractional" depository stock. These depository stock are what is sold to investors and redeemed by investors for juicy preferred stock.
They also talk about how the preferred stock will have tracking "receipts" so GameStop can ensure its not being fucked with... This is the bit that gives me heavy crypto vibes. GameStop's development into crypto directly after the Sneeze has fallen off the map in most Apes' brains. There has been no news on that front in a long while. My theory is that all this time RC has been developing some blockchain-like infrastructure in the shadows. This infrastructure will implement some form of this exchange/tracking/redemption process for the preferred and depository stock.
Just spitballing, but consider this possibility. GameStop unveils some new website/portal whose purpose is to provide investors with a platform (I think the GameStop Wallet was a proof-of-concept for this) to manage some brand new GameStop crypto tokens. These tokens are only distributed from GameStop to purchasers of their new depository stock (remember, depository stock can just be thought of as fractional portions of preferred stock). These tokens are what is used to track ownership of the depository (and preferred) stock to prevent it being fucked with.
This possible crypto/blockchain-type system would be in addition to and run in parallel with the regular stock exchanges. It would NOT be meant to "replace" any stock exchanges. Basically, the way I envision it, stock would be still traded on exchange and dividends for stock would be distributed in the standard way. This new "crypto" system could just be used for tracking and transparency of ownership. Perhaps, in order to receive a dividend on the new preferred stock, you may have to prove ownership through this system with a crypto token that you received when obtaining preferred or depository stock.
The main manipulation done against GME is that of creating synthetic shares and faking ownership. Unless shares are DRSed, they literally don't exist except as holdings numbers shown to you by your Brokerage's website. Those numbers are the real fraud, but since the Brokerage's show us these numbers, they are on the hook for paying out any dividends relating to those holdings numbers that are "supposedly" backed by actual, real shares.
RC has seen this, and the best way to combat this fraudulent nightmare from also occurring to preferred/depository stock is to know exactly WHERE all the shares of the new stock will go and WHO exactly owns them. This is where crypto thrives. No matter what the crypto haters say about NFT sentiment or crypto investments, the mathematics behind crypto are solid as fuck. Non-fungible tokens ARE a real thing. Consensus truth for ownership CAN be achieved with blockchain cryptography.
The S-3ASR states that the board can decide how (in what proportions) dividends are distributed. A lump amount designated for dividend could be split between dividends to preferred stock holders and dividends to common stock holders. This gives the board the perfect amount of control on the pain inflicted to SHFs. Sale of series of preferred stock raises the capital to ignite the infinite money glitch which is implemented via the dividends to common stock (since the common stock is what is over-shorted). And if the money glitch becomes too powerful and threatens "idiosyncratic risk" to the greater market, then the board can simply ease up on the common stock dividends and redirect more dividends to preferred stock holders (which wont be over-shorted due to crypto tracking and safeguards). This slow bleed on the SHFs through the common stock will just continue until they finally close out their synthetics on the common stock.

So some back story. Ill try to keep it short but there's no way. I just need to vent.
About 5 years ago my wife of 25 years decided she wasn't in love with me any longer. I signed us up for couples therapy and she bailed after 3 sessions. Her reason was it was up to me to make her fall in love with me again. Over the next year it was decided that we were going to divorce. She also comes up with the an agreement where we sell the house after the last 3 kids graduate high school. The agreement is pretty one sided to her favor. She wants to have the house appraised at the time of divorce and I get 50 percent of its value at that point in time. Not when it sells which is a few years later. A few things about the house. Its in a very nice suburb for Seattle. I found it the late 90s for 75K. We bought it and a few years later we had our first child and she decided to be a stay at home mom. I was good with it. Over the next 5 or 6 years we had our other 3 kids and life was good. I worked full time and over that time I fixed up the house on my own. It was originally 750 SF so as the family grew I added on as we needed the extra room for the kids and eventually built the standalone garage. And I did all the work myself. She was a stay at home mom. It went this way as the kids got older. When to 2 youngest were in 7th grade I started pushing for her to get a job or maybe go to back to college or take some classes in some interests that she might develop into a career that she would enjoy. Nothing ever came of that but she did get a few jobs were she worked part time and made minimum wage. I kept the bills paid and provided a nice stable home and life for our family. I even started assistant coaching football and baseball for the kids teams so I could spend after work time with them. During that time she was a great partner, wife and mom. Life was good.
Then, as you know, the SHTF. We start the process of separating. I eventually converted our standalone garage to an apartment to live in as we worked stuff out and I also didn't want to live apart from our 4 kids (15,15, 17 and 20 ) at the time. It gets pretty awkward over time. She wants us to split time in the garage apartment every 30 days where we switch. During that time we had decided to divorce so it was official. So by now its more than a year and a half later. I've moved on and actually started seeing someone and she's getting love letters in the mail from someone. I didn't care if she was seeing anyone but the letters delivered to the house where the kids could see them. That was rough. We start negotiating the divorce and she initially wants alimony for life. In Washington state it's generally 1 year of alimony for every 5 years you're married and she wasn't happy with that but oh well. We do a mediated divorce and I agree to pay 5 years of alimony which mounts to about 125K (2K a month) for her. Also, If you don't know, she gets that money free, and I have to pay the taxes on it. Yet another crappy thing that Im bitter about. And up to that point Im paying for everything, the mortgage, utilities, food ect just like we are one happy family. So after her 2k she gets from me our finances are calculated and we are suppose to be both making the same. She's a bit over with her part time job pay so she's suppose to pay me $200 a month. She doesnt think its fair so anyone want to guess how many months she actually pays that $200 to me. Im sure you know the answer (its 0 BTW)
The divorce is finalized and I moved out. Over the course for the divorce I meet someone and we hit it off. We actually have been living together for 4 years now. Her guy moves into the house I found, fixed up and paid for for 25 years. One of the kids lived with me for a year because of covid and the other kids decide to stay in the house. Not because of the relation with me but I moved about 45 minutes away and they have their friends there and are working closer to their childhood home. Me and the kids have a great relationship.
Any how. over the last 2 years of our last 2 in high school all I got from her is I need more money for the kids. Keep in mind Im Im giving her alimony and monthly money for the kids as well. When they turned 18 I told her that I was going to give the kids money directly to them and not through her. She in turn started charging the kids rent and remember the apartment I built. She charged our oldest son 700 a month to live there while he was still in college barely scraping by. I've also bought every one of my kids cars paid for health car and car insurance as well. It was a rough time for me.
So eventually she offered to buy the house outright. She offered me 60K. I literally laughed at her. I countered with 125K and no more alimony. Which represented a 25% decrease because I was cashing her alimony in a lump sum. She stated that she deserved every bit of the alimony. Tons of back and forth and at this point i'm sick of it and dealing with her and accept 100k just to be done with her. So now, I have nothing to show for 25 years of work. Im so bitter over that. About a year ago my daughter was going to start college in alaska. Her and her long term boyfriend (4 years all though high school) were going to attend the same college and of course they break up 30 days before they were going to leave together. I have to scramble and pay about 5k to get her there. I fly with her to get her settled in. I mentioned to my X that she should help with the cost as well. She says that was a deal make with our daughter and she wouldn't be helping with the cost in anyway. Of course all think about is all the times she called me asking for more money to "help" the kids. Im steaming just thinking about that. Since then I haven't texted the ex even related to the kids.
So its been a rough ride and I have dealt with a ton of emotions. I kept up with seeing the counselor now and then to keep me head on straight. I feel I've lost everything and in this economy there's no way I can purchase another house of my own. Even making the money I do which is pretty good. Im bitter and pissed but every day things come in line and I've learned to move on.
THEN.....THEN after 5 years of ups and downs I get a text from my ex. She's going on about how she wishes her and I can be friends. Hoping someday that we can spend time together with the kids for holidays or something. Then she says "I really never wanted to get a divorce from you" it was just how things worked out. What the fuck?????
All I can think is that she is typing that text to me from my old house that is now worth 1 million on zillow that she lives in with her guy. I wonder if he knows she's sending me that. I really brings me back and messes with my emotions again.

Rain poured down on the two weary travelers as they finally caught sight of refuge.
“Look, a temple!” One of them shouted.
“Let’s hurry! Hopefully they aren’t asleep yet!”
With water-logged clothes, they ran over to the temple steps. According to the sign, they were at Mannenji Temple. They trudged up the steps as quickly as they could muster. Monks greeted them at the door and ushered them in, offering fresh clothes along with towels to dry off.
“Thank you, you’ve saved us!” They prased.
Before long, they were comfortably drinking hot tea and telling of riveting adventures. They spoke of exploring ancient ruins and finding priceless treasures. Many of the stories were humorous and harrowing tales going late into the evening. After they were left alone to sleep for the night, the two men grinned at each other.
“I knew you were a good story teller but….that last one was a doozy!” The first man said.
“And they bought every bit of it,” the other man said. “So often, the kindest are the most gullible!”
“Had we told them a fraction of the truth, they’d see us out quickly.”
They both chuckled.
“Let’s not harm them though. They’re not like the others. I have something in mind.”
“What is it?”
“I’ll tell you tomorrow. For now, let’s get some rest and head out in the morning.”
That night, one of them rested deeply while the other exacted his plan.
The next morning, the two rested men thanked the monks ferociously for their hospitality and left for town.
Once they were far enough away, one of the men beamed mischievously at the other.
“I always pause when you smile like that. Wait…is this about your plan, Ita?”
“Ah, Tomo. You know me too well.”
Ita rifled through his bag and slowly procured a small doll. It instantly struck Tomo, as it had a strange aura. The dolls face was round and childlike with raven, shoulder-length hair in a bob and wore a traditional kimono. This fact alone would have made the doll quite cute, but another aspect negated all else. The two eyes of the doll were endless black circles that bore an untouchable, creeping anxiety.
“Where did you….you didn’t. Did you?!”
“Yes. I took it from the temple.”
“I can’t believe you…”
Itazura rolled his eyes and put the doll back into the bag.
“Keep your pants on. It was inside a box, so it’ll be a while before they realize it’s gone.”
“That’s not the point!” Tomodachi threw his hands up in frustration. “We’re not saints, but they did nothing to deserve this!”
“Do you know how much this could fetch us? I don’t know what it is, but the fact that it’s kept in the temple is enough to secure us for a long time! The box itself would have been worth taking, but I couldn’t sneak it back to our room.”
“I don’t like it.” Tomo crossed his arms at this.
“You don’t have to come with me, you know.”
“We’re supposed to only take from…..ahh fine. Let’s just see how much this thing is worth.”
“I have a feeling it will change your mind.”
They trekked into town and the uncomfortable silence eventually smoothed over. After getting a bite to eat, they found a trade shop that would have some idea of the doll’s value.
“Hello, gentlemen. Anything I could interest you in?”
“Yes, in fact.”
Ita gently laid the doll on the counter and the elderly shop owner looked it over. After a furrow of his brow, the owner said:
“Was this made recently?”
“No, we found it.”
“Hmmmm.”
The elderly man fetched a pair of glasses and scrutinized every inch of the doll, his face becoming more lined with concern. After he seemed satisfied with the inspection, he looked at the men gravely.
“I will only ask once more…you or anyone you know did not make this doll, correct?”
“No. Why do you keep asking?”’
The shop owner’s face went pale as the sincerity of the answer sunk in.
“I want to be a hundred percent sure that this is an original. It seems to be an original, it’s just…..I’m surprised that you have this in your possession.”
“What is it?” Tomo finally spoke up, his curiosity gnawing at him.
“This appears to be the Okiku doll.”
“Okiku? That sounds a bit familiar. Refresh me, if you will.”
“A young girl was once gifted this doll as a birthday present. Her older brother saw the doll in a shop window during his travels and was instantly enamored. Somehow he knew this doll was meant for his sister’s two-year birthday. She loved the doll to the point of obsession, but who is to really say when it comes to such a young child? The little girl named the doll Okiku after herself. She fed it, talked to it, put it to bed, and did absolutely everything with it. Sadly, on the girl’s third birthday, she was struck with illness and died clutching the doll in her little arms.”
“That’s…. a bit macabre.”
“That’s only the beginning. The family referred to the doll as Okiku, perhaps treating it as their daughter in a strange way of grieving. Soon after, they experienced countless unexplained events. Lights would turn on and off, doors would slam and disembodied footsteps walked throughout the household. Voices of a young girl were heard talking and singing. And perhaps the most infamous of all…the doll’s hair began to grow as if she were a living being. The family showed the doll to a priest who confirmed all their allegations and they came to the conclusion that the doll contained the spirit of Okiku. Many say that you must care for the doll and continue cutting her hair to appease her. For those who don’t, it will have disastrous consequences.”
“Nonsense,” spat Ita. “Superstitions, legends, and folklore.”
“Believe it or not, many reported the same occurrences for the doll. You know, they actually sent clippings of her hair for scientific analysis.”
“And what of that?” Tomo asked.
“They concluded definitively that the hair was actually that of a human girl.”
“Whoa….”
“I don’t believe any of this,” Ita reiterated.
“Look it up, it’s all been verified. Where did you say you found this, by the way?”
“I didn’t, old man. I just need to know how much you’ll give us for it. Surely this will cost quite a bit considering its history.”
“How much? I wouldn’t give you anything for it! I can’t take this doll!”
“Why not?!”
“Because I don’t wish to be haunted, that’s why! What kind of a question…and you know what’s really strange about this? Last I heard, the family left the doll with the monks.” The man pointed in the direction of Mannenji Temple. “I suppose you wouldn’t know anything about that, would you?”
Ita looked around the shop and confirmed no one else was around. He gave Tomodachi a look, who reluctantly nodded back with a sick feeling in his stomach.
“Please, don’t…”
“Do it!” Itazura commanded.
Tomo whisked over to the front door and locked it before he spun the sign around to “closed.”
“What are you doing?” The shop owner said, backing up with his hands raised.
After all was said and done, the two drifters talked to anyone in town who would lend an ear. They needed someone who was not bound by any moral duty to the doll’s rightful owner. Luckily, Ita had a good eye for people with knowledge of these dealings and there was someone in the next town that would likely pay them for the doll.
Tomo had to force empty thoughts into his mind to block out what they did. He’d hurt others and even killed someone before, but not this way. Not an innocent shop owner.
“If only he’d not said anything about knowing where it came from, the old fool might still be alive,” Tomo thought.
The trip to the next town was a two-day walk, so they gathered supplies and were soon on the road. The silence was beginning to drive Tomo mad as he was only left with his guilty thoughts.
That night, they spoke over the campfire.
“You really believe this stuff, don’t you?” Ita started.
“I don’t know what to believe…I just know that he didn’t deserve that.”
“Are you getting soft on me, Tomo? Don’t have the stomach for this anymore?”
“I don’t think he deserved that! We could have tied him up.”
“Yeah, and then he’d send the police after us. That’s the last thing we need!”
“Let’s just sell this thing and get it over with.”
They sat in silence for a bit, and Ita noticed Tomo closely watching the bag.
“You think she’s really haunted, don’t you?”
“I think I don’t want to find out.”
Ita pulled the doll out of the bag and wagged it at him.
“Mister Tomo, will you give me a kiiiiss?!!”
Ita spoke in a mocking little girl’s voice and erupted into laughter.
“What is wrong with you? Have you no respect for the dead?’
“Oh, c’mon. I don’t think Okiku will mind!”
Tomo exchanged choice words, which fell on deaf ears. Then he picked up his sleeping bag amongst other things and moved to a tree forty yards away.
“Good night,” he shouted in defiance.
“Can I give you a good night kiss first?” Ita responded with his girly voice.
Tomo settled into his new spot, ignoring his awful friend’s laughing fit.
Before long, he settled hard into a dream.
Tomo was living in a lavish home, surrounded by opulent and important things. He smiled at others as he toasted and threw lush parties. It all seemed the life of luxury, but at a cost. At the end of each party, he cleaned up by himself with a strong, foreboding loneliness. The next moment he was cutting the haunted doll’s hair and set her on a decorative altar with lit candles. A ghostly form of an old man kept appearing throughout, glaring at him with forlorn, angry eyes. He haunted Tomo’s every step..
One morning, he awoke to an empty house with no light. A little girl appeared before him and grabbed him by the shoulders and began to shake him.
And shake and shake and shake and shake and…
”Tomo!” A voice jerked him awake.
After snapping his eyes open, he saw Ita holding his shoulders.
“It’s alright. Just me.”
“What do you want?”
“I need to use the bathroom.”
“So go then? What are you, a child? Why wake me up?!”
“I’ve been hearing lots of strange noises, even for a forest. I wanted to be sure you’re awake if something were to happen.”
Tomo sat for a moment, fuming at his friend.
“Okay, fine. I’m already awake now. Make it quick.”
His friend wandered into the woods out of sight. And so Tomo waited.
Something felt strange and he quickly realized what it was. The forest was deathly silent, not like what Itazura said. It occurred to Tomodachi that Ita was probably just scared, which lifted his spirits a bit. He sat up and leaned against a tree and absent-mindedly dozed off.
“Uh?”
Tomo awoke in a startle before checking his watch. It’d been thirty minutes. He walked over to his friend’s camping spot to find him missing.
Something was very wrong.
“Ita!” He whisper-shouted through the woods. “Iiiitaaaaa!”
There was no response.
Shaking, he bumbled his way through the woods in the area he last saw his friend. His flashlight searched everywhere, but his friend was nowhere to be found. Starting to give up, he made a wide berth on his walk back until he tripped over something.
“Ooooof!”
The fall knocked the breath out of him as his light clattered to the forest floor. He got his bearings again and retrieved his flashlight. When he looked back at what he tripped over, he couldn’t believe his eyes.
Ita was laying on the ground with his mouth gaping open, clutching the infamous Okiku doll in his curled hands. The hair of the doll had grown way longer and was wrapped tightly around Ita’s neck.
“No….no, this isn’t real,” he whispered to himself. “I’m dreaming. I must be.”
Placing his hands over his eyes, he thought if he waited a moment and looked again then things would be different. Before he did, an unexplainable noise permeated the air.
There was no doubting it. It was the voice of a little girl singing.
Tomo panicked and rushed back to his sleeping bag, gathering all of his belongings before he rummaged through his former friend’s bag and took the provisions. Slinging his bag over his shoulder, he ran along the forest path towards the next town until he collapsed from exhaustion and sat up against a tree.
“It has him now. I’m okay,” were the last thoughts before he fell back asleep.
Tomo dreamed more of the old man he helped kill before he woke again into a bright morning. Despite the malevolent dream, he felt surprisingly refreshed. For a moment, he thought perhaps it really was all a dream.
This thought didn’t last long.
He sat up and rubbed his eyes, then jumped to his feet. The Okiku doll was sitting next to his rucksack with longer hair and Ita’s knife on the ground nearby. Okiku’s eyes stared its abyss in his direction.
“What do you want?!” He yelled.
His eyes went from the doll to the knife and very soon he understood. Every fiber in his being wanted to run screaming from the doll, but he knew it would do him no good. And so he relented to his fate.
Singing softly as he would to a child, he placed the doll in his lap and began to cut the doll’s hair with the knife. He spoke sweet and gentle, pretending that he was asking a little girl about her day and giggling at her answers. Silent tears of fear streamed down his face as he did so in an anxiety-ridden trance.
Once the doll’s hair was properly cut, he sat the doll up and stared at her for a moment.
“I’m sorry for my part in all this, you know. I’ve never been strong. I’ve always been a coward.”
The doll stared back at him and he nodded in understanding.
“Yes…yes, you’re right. I should. It’s only fitting.”
Without another word, Tomo raised the knife to his neck and dragged the blade from one side to the other. A gush of crimson flowed forth, soaking his clothes.
The doll watched...and smiled.
Back at the Mennanji Temple, monks were settling in for the night when the watchman heard a hard knock at the temple doors. As he approached, he called out.
“Who is it?”
“I’ve come to return something,” a voice said from the other side.
The monk promptly opened the door and was shocked to find no one there. He looked down and saw the Okiku doll staring up at him.
“Oh, my sweet little one,” he said softly as he picked the doll up. “Who got you this time, huh?”
He smiled with warmth and closed the door back.
“She’s back,” the watchman called out.
Another monk promptly appeared with a pair of clippers and the watchman held the doll out. Bowing, the monk with clippers took the doll and began cutting its hair.
“Who brought her back?” The hair-cutting monk asked.
“I don’t know. They weren’t there when I answered,” the watchman replied.
As he went about his watch duties for the night, the monk thought to himself.
Come to think of it, it did sound like an older gentlemen, didn’t it?

Rain poured down on the two weary travelers as they finally caught sight of refuge.
“Look, a temple!” One of them shouted.
“Let’s hurry! Hopefully they aren’t asleep yet!”
With water-logged clothes, they ran over to the temple steps. According to the sign, they were at Mannenji Temple. They trudged up the steps as quickly as they could muster. Monks greeted them at the door and ushered them in, offering fresh clothes along with towels to dry off.
“Thank you, you’ve saved us!” They prased.
Before long, they were comfortably drinking hot tea and telling of riveting adventures. They spoke of exploring ancient ruins and finding priceless treasures. Many of the stories were humorous and harrowing tales going late into the evening. After they were left alone to sleep for the night, the two men grinned at each other.
“I knew you were a good story teller but….that last one was a doozy!” The first man said.
“And they bought every bit of it,” the other man said. “So often, the kindest are the most gullible!”
“Had we told them a fraction of the truth, they’d see us out quickly.”
They both chuckled.
“Let’s not harm them though. They’re not like the others. I have something in mind.”
“What is it?”
“I’ll tell you tomorrow. For now, let’s get some rest and head out in the morning.”
That night, one of them rested deeply while the other exacted his plan.
The next morning, the two rested men thanked the monks ferociously for their hospitality and left for town.
Once they were far enough away, one of the men beamed mischievously at the other.
“I always pause when you smile like that. Wait…is this about your plan, Ita?”
“Ah, Tomo. You know me too well.”
Ita rifled through his bag and slowly procured a small doll. It instantly struck Tomo, as it had a strange aura. The dolls face was round and childlike with raven, shoulder-length hair in a bob and wore a traditional kimono. This fact alone would have made the doll quite cute, but another aspect negated all else. The two eyes of the doll were endless black circles that bore an untouchable, creeping anxiety.
“Where did you….you didn’t. Did you?!”
“Yes. I took it from the temple.”
“I can’t believe you…”
Itazura rolled his eyes and put the doll back into the bag.
“Keep your pants on. It was inside a box, so it’ll be a while before they realize it’s gone.”
“That’s not the point!” Tomodachi threw his hands up in frustration. “We’re not saints, but they did nothing to deserve this!”
“Do you know how much this could fetch us? I don’t know what it is, but the fact that it’s kept in the temple is enough to secure us for a long time! The box itself would have been worth taking, but I couldn’t sneak it back to our room.”
“I don’t like it.” Tomo crossed his arms at this.
“You don’t have to come with me, you know.”
“We’re supposed to only take from…..ahh fine. Let’s just see how much this thing is worth.”
“I have a feeling it will change your mind.”
They trekked into town and the uncomfortable silence eventually smoothed over. After getting a bite to eat, they found a trade shop that would have some idea of the doll’s value.
“Hello, gentlemen. Anything I could interest you in?”
“Yes, in fact.”
Ita gently laid the doll on the counter and the elderly shop owner looked it over. After a furrow of his brow, the owner said:
“Was this made recently?”
“No, we found it.”
“Hmmmm.”
The elderly man fetched a pair of glasses and scrutinized every inch of the doll, his face becoming more lined with concern. After he seemed satisfied with the inspection, he looked at the men gravely.
“I will only ask once more…you or anyone you know did not make this doll, correct?”
“No. Why do you keep asking?”’
The shop owner’s face went pale as the sincerity of the answer sunk in.
“I want to be a hundred percent sure that this is an original. It seems to be an original, it’s just…..I’m surprised that you have this in your possession.”
“What is it?” Tomo finally spoke up, his curiosity gnawing at him.
“This appears to be the Okiku doll.”
“Okiku? That sounds a bit familiar. Refresh me, if you will.”
“A young girl was once gifted this doll as a birthday present. Her older brother saw the doll in a shop window during his travels and was instantly enamored. Somehow he knew this doll was meant for his sister’s two-year birthday. She loved the doll to the point of obsession, but who is to really say when it comes to such a young child? The little girl named the doll Okiku after herself. She fed it, talked to it, put it to bed, and did absolutely everything with it. Sadly, on the girl’s third birthday, she was struck with illness and died clutching the doll in her little arms.”
“That’s…. a bit macabre.”
“That’s only the beginning. The family referred to the doll as Okiku, perhaps treating it as their daughter in a strange way of grieving. Soon after, they experienced countless unexplained events. Lights would turn on and off, doors would slam and disembodied footsteps walked throughout the household. Voices of a young girl were heard talking and singing. And perhaps the most infamous of all…the doll’s hair began to grow as if she were a living being. The family showed the doll to a priest who confirmed all their allegations and they came to the conclusion that the doll contained the spirit of Okiku. Many say that you must care for the doll and continue cutting her hair to appease her. For those who don’t, it will have disastrous consequences.”
“Nonsense,” spat Ita. “Superstitions, legends, and folklore.”
“Believe it or not, many reported the same occurrences for the doll. You know, they actually sent clippings of her hair for scientific analysis.”
“And what of that?” Tomo asked.
“They concluded definitively that the hair was actually that of a human girl.”
“Whoa….”
“I don’t believe any of this,” Ita reiterated.
“Look it up, it’s all been verified. Where did you say you found this, by the way?”
“I didn’t, old man. I just need to know how much you’ll give us for it. Surely this will cost quite a bit considering its history.”
“How much? I wouldn’t give you anything for it! I can’t take this doll!”
“Why not?!”
“Because I don’t wish to be haunted, that’s why! What kind of a question…and you know what’s really strange about this? Last I heard, the family left the doll with the monks.” The man pointed in the direction of Mannenji Temple. “I suppose you wouldn’t know anything about that, would you?”
Ita looked around the shop and confirmed no one else was around. He gave Tomodachi a look, who reluctantly nodded back with a sick feeling in his stomach.
“Please, don’t…”
“Do it!” Itazura commanded.
Tomo whisked over to the front door and locked it before he spun the sign around to “closed.”
“What are you doing?” The shop owner said, backing up with his hands raised.
After all was said and done, the two drifters talked to anyone in town who would lend an ear. They needed someone who was not bound by any moral duty to the doll’s rightful owner. Luckily, Ita had a good eye for people with knowledge of these dealings and there was someone in the next town that would likely pay them for the doll.
Tomo had to force empty thoughts into his mind to block out what they did. He’d hurt others and even killed someone before, but not this way. Not an innocent shop owner.
“If only he’d not said anything about knowing where it came from, the old fool might still be alive,” Tomo thought.
The trip to the next town was a two-day walk, so they gathered supplies and were soon on the road. The silence was beginning to drive Tomo mad as he was only left with his guilty thoughts.
That night, they spoke over the campfire.
“You really believe this stuff, don’t you?” Ita started.
“I don’t know what to believe…I just know that he didn’t deserve that.”
“Are you getting soft on me, Tomo? Don’t have the stomach for this anymore?”
“I don’t think he deserved that! We could have tied him up.”
“Yeah, and then he’d send the police after us. That’s the last thing we need!”
“Let’s just sell this thing and get it over with.”
They sat in silence for a bit, and Ita noticed Tomo closely watching the bag.
“You think she’s really haunted, don’t you?”
“I think I don’t want to find out.”
Ita pulled the doll out of the bag and wagged it at him.
“Mister Tomo, will you give me a kiiiiss?!!”
Ita spoke in a mocking little girl’s voice and erupted into laughter.
“What is wrong with you? Have you no respect for the dead?’
“Oh, c’mon. I don’t think Okiku will mind!”
Tomo exchanged choice words, which fell on deaf ears. Then he picked up his sleeping bag amongst other things and moved to a tree forty yards away.
“Good night,” he shouted in defiance.
“Can I give you a good night kiss first?” Ita responded with his girly voice.
Tomo settled into his new spot, ignoring his awful friend’s laughing fit.
Before long, he settled hard into a dream.
Tomo was living in a lavish home, surrounded by opulent and important things. He smiled at others as he toasted and threw lush parties. It all seemed the life of luxury, but at a cost. At the end of each party, he cleaned up by himself with a strong, foreboding loneliness. The next moment he was cutting the haunted doll’s hair and set her on a decorative altar with lit candles. A ghostly form of an old man kept appearing throughout, glaring at him with forlorn, angry eyes. He haunted Tomo’s every step..
One morning, he awoke to an empty house with no light. A little girl appeared before him and grabbed him by the shoulders and began to shake him.
And shake and shake and shake and shake and…
”Tomo!” A voice jerked him awake.
After snapping his eyes open, he saw Ita holding his shoulders.
“It’s alright. Just me.”
“What do you want?”
“I need to use the bathroom.”
“So go then? What are you, a child? Why wake me up?!”
“I’ve been hearing lots of strange noises, even for a forest. I wanted to be sure you’re awake if something were to happen.”
Tomo sat for a moment, fuming at his friend.
“Okay, fine. I’m already awake now. Make it quick.”
His friend wandered into the woods out of sight. And so Tomo waited.
Something felt strange and he quickly realized what it was. The forest was deathly silent, not like what Itazura said. It occurred to Tomodachi that Ita was probably just scared, which lifted his spirits a bit. He sat up and leaned against a tree and absent-mindedly dozed off.
“Uh?”
Tomo awoke in a startle before checking his watch. It’d been thirty minutes. He walked over to his friend’s camping spot to find him missing.
Something was very wrong.
“Ita!” He whisper-shouted through the woods. “Iiiitaaaaa!”
There was no response.
Shaking, he bumbled his way through the woods in the area he last saw his friend. His flashlight searched everywhere, but his friend was nowhere to be found. Starting to give up, he made a wide berth on his walk back until he tripped over something.
“Ooooof!”
The fall knocked the breath out of him as his light clattered to the forest floor. He got his bearings again and retrieved his flashlight. When he looked back at what he tripped over, he couldn’t believe his eyes.
Ita was laying on the ground with his mouth gaping open, clutching the infamous Okiku doll in his curled hands. The hair of the doll had grown way longer and was wrapped tightly around Ita’s neck.
“No….no, this isn’t real,” he whispered to himself. “I’m dreaming. I must be.”
Placing his hands over his eyes, he thought if he waited a moment and looked again then things would be different. Before he did, an unexplainable noise permeated the air.
There was no doubting it. It was the voice of a little girl singing.
Tomo panicked and rushed back to his sleeping bag, gathering all of his belongings before he rummaged through his former friend’s bag and took the provisions. Slinging his bag over his shoulder, he ran along the forest path towards the next town until he collapsed from exhaustion and sat up against a tree.
“It has him now. I’m okay,” were the last thoughts before he fell back asleep.
Tomo dreamed more of the old man he helped kill before he woke again into a bright morning. Despite the malevolent dream, he felt surprisingly refreshed. For a moment, he thought perhaps it really was all a dream.
This thought didn’t last long.
He sat up and rubbed his eyes, then jumped to his feet. The Okiku doll was sitting next to his rucksack with longer hair and Ita’s knife on the ground nearby. Okiku’s eyes stared its abyss in his direction.
“What do you want?!” He yelled.
His eyes went from the doll to the knife and very soon he understood. Every fiber in his being wanted to run screaming from the doll, but he knew it would do him no good. And so he relented to his fate.
Singing softly as he would to a child, he placed the doll in his lap and began to cut the doll’s hair with the knife. He spoke sweet and gentle, pretending that he was asking a little girl about her day and giggling at her answers. Silent tears of fear streamed down his face as he did so in an anxiety-ridden trance.
Once the doll’s hair was properly cut, he sat the doll up and stared at her for a moment.
“I’m sorry for my part in all this, you know. I’ve never been strong. I’ve always been a coward.”
The doll stared back at him and he nodded in understanding.
“Yes…yes, you’re right. I should. It’s only fitting.”
Without another word, Tomo raised the knife to his neck and dragged the blade from one side to the other. A gush of crimson flowed forth, soaking his clothes.
The doll watched...and smiled.
Back at the Mennanji Temple, monks were settling in for the night when the watchman heard a hard knock at the temple doors. As he approached, he called out.
“Who is it?”
“I’ve come to return something,” a voice said from the other side.
The monk promptly opened the door and was shocked to find no one there. He looked down and saw the Okiku doll staring up at him.
“Oh, my sweet little one,” he said softly as he picked the doll up. “Who got you this time, huh?”
He smiled with warmth and closed the door back.
“She’s back,” the watchman called out.
Another monk promptly appeared with a pair of clippers and the watchman held the doll out. Bowing, the monk with clippers took the doll and began cutting its hair.
“Who brought her back?” The hair-cutting monk asked.
“I don’t know. They weren’t there when I answered,” the watchman replied.
As he went about his watch duties for the night, the monk thought to himself.
Come to think of it, it did sound like an older gentlemen, didn’t it?

Rain poured down on the two weary travelers as they finally caught sight of refuge.
“Look, a temple!” One of them shouted.
“Let’s hurry! Hopefully they aren’t asleep yet!”
With water-logged clothes, they ran over to the temple steps. According to the sign, they were at Mannenji Temple. They trudged up the steps as quickly as they could muster. Monks greeted them at the door and ushered them in, offering fresh clothes along with towels to dry off.
“Thank you, you’ve saved us!” They prased.
Before long, they were comfortably drinking hot tea and telling of riveting adventures. They spoke of exploring ancient ruins and finding priceless treasures. Many of the stories were humorous and harrowing tales going late into the evening. After they were left alone to sleep for the night, the two men grinned at each other.
“I knew you were a good story teller but….that last one was a doozy!” The first man said.
“And they bought every bit of it,” the other man said. “So often, the kindest are the most gullible!”
“Had we told them a fraction of the truth, they’d see us out quickly.”
They both chuckled.
“Let’s not harm them though. They’re not like the others. I have something in mind.”
“What is it?”
“I’ll tell you tomorrow. For now, let’s get some rest and head out in the morning.”
That night, one of them rested deeply while the other exacted his plan.
The next morning, the two rested men thanked the monks ferociously for their hospitality and left for town.
Once they were far enough away, one of the men beamed mischievously at the other.
“I always pause when you smile like that. Wait…is this about your plan, Ita?”
“Ah, Tomo. You know me too well.”
Ita rifled through his bag and slowly procured a small doll. It instantly struck Tomo, as it had a strange aura. The dolls face was round and childlike with raven, shoulder-length hair in a bob and wore a traditional kimono. This fact alone would have made the doll quite cute, but another aspect negated all else. The two eyes of the doll were endless black circles that bore an untouchable, creeping anxiety.
“Where did you….you didn’t. Did you?!”
“Yes. I took it from the temple.”
“I can’t believe you…”
Itazura rolled his eyes and put the doll back into the bag.
“Keep your pants on. It was inside a box, so it’ll be a while before they realize it’s gone.”
“That’s not the point!” Tomodachi threw his hands up in frustration. “We’re not saints, but they did nothing to deserve this!”
“Do you know how much this could fetch us? I don’t know what it is, but the fact that it’s kept in the temple is enough to secure us for a long time! The box itself would have been worth taking, but I couldn’t sneak it back to our room.”
“I don’t like it.” Tomo crossed his arms at this.
“You don’t have to come with me, you know.”
“We’re supposed to only take from…..ahh fine. Let’s just see how much this thing is worth.”
“I have a feeling it will change your mind.”
They trekked into town and the uncomfortable silence eventually smoothed over. After getting a bite to eat, they found a trade shop that would have some idea of the doll’s value.
“Hello, gentlemen. Anything I could interest you in?”
“Yes, in fact.”
Ita gently laid the doll on the counter and the elderly shop owner looked it over. After a furrow of his brow, the owner said:
“Was this made recently?”
“No, we found it.”
“Hmmmm.”
The elderly man fetched a pair of glasses and scrutinized every inch of the doll, his face becoming more lined with concern. After he seemed satisfied with the inspection, he looked at the men gravely.
“I will only ask once more…you or anyone you know did not make this doll, correct?”
“No. Why do you keep asking?”’
The shop owner’s face went pale as the sincerity of the answer sunk in.
“I want to be a hundred percent sure that this is an original. It seems to be an original, it’s just…..I’m surprised that you have this in your possession.”
“What is it?” Tomo finally spoke up, his curiosity gnawing at him.
“This appears to be the Okiku doll.”
“Okiku? That sounds a bit familiar. Refresh me, if you will.”
“A young girl was once gifted this doll as a birthday present. Her older brother saw the doll in a shop window during his travels and was instantly enamored. Somehow he knew this doll was meant for his sister’s two-year birthday. She loved the doll to the point of obsession, but who is to really say when it comes to such a young child? The little girl named the doll Okiku after herself. She fed it, talked to it, put it to bed, and did absolutely everything with it. Sadly, on the girl’s third birthday, she was struck with illness and died clutching the doll in her little arms.”
“That’s…. a bit macabre.”
“That’s only the beginning. The family referred to the doll as Okiku, perhaps treating it as their daughter in a strange way of grieving. Soon after, they experienced countless unexplained events. Lights would turn on and off, doors would slam and disembodied footsteps walked throughout the household. Voices of a young girl were heard talking and singing. And perhaps the most infamous of all…the doll’s hair began to grow as if she were a living being. The family showed the doll to a priest who confirmed all their allegations and they came to the conclusion that the doll contained the spirit of Okiku. Many say that you must care for the doll and continue cutting her hair to appease her. For those who don’t, it will have disastrous consequences.”
“Nonsense,” spat Ita. “Superstitions, legends, and folklore.”
“Believe it or not, many reported the same occurrences for the doll. You know, they actually sent clippings of her hair for scientific analysis.”
“And what of that?” Tomo asked.
“They concluded definitively that the hair was actually that of a human girl.”
“Whoa….”
“I don’t believe any of this,” Ita reiterated.
“Look it up, it’s all been verified. Where did you say you found this, by the way?”
“I didn’t, old man. I just need to know how much you’ll give us for it. Surely this will cost quite a bit considering its history.”
“How much? I wouldn’t give you anything for it! I can’t take this doll!”
“Why not?!”
“Because I don’t wish to be haunted, that’s why! What kind of a question…and you know what’s really strange about this? Last I heard, the family left the doll with the monks.” The man pointed in the direction of Mannenji Temple. “I suppose you wouldn’t know anything about that, would you?”
Ita looked around the shop and confirmed no one else was around. He gave Tomodachi a look, who reluctantly nodded back with a sick feeling in his stomach.
“Please, don’t…”
“Do it!” Itazura commanded.
Tomo whisked over to the front door and locked it before he spun the sign around to “closed.”
“What are you doing?” The shop owner said, backing up with his hands raised.
After all was said and done, the two drifters talked to anyone in town who would lend an ear. They needed someone who was not bound by any moral duty to the doll’s rightful owner. Luckily, Ita had a good eye for people with knowledge of these dealings and there was someone in the next town that would likely pay them for the doll.
Tomo had to force empty thoughts into his mind to block out what they did. He’d hurt others and even killed someone before, but not this way. Not an innocent shop owner.
“If only he’d not said anything about knowing where it came from, the old fool might still be alive,” Tomo thought.
The trip to the next town was a two-day walk, so they gathered supplies and were soon on the road. The silence was beginning to drive Tomo mad as he was only left with his guilty thoughts.
That night, they spoke over the campfire.
“You really believe this stuff, don’t you?” Ita started.
“I don’t know what to believe…I just know that he didn’t deserve that.”
“Are you getting soft on me, Tomo? Don’t have the stomach for this anymore?”
“I don’t think he deserved that! We could have tied him up.”
“Yeah, and then he’d send the police after us. That’s the last thing we need!”
“Let’s just sell this thing and get it over with.”
They sat in silence for a bit, and Ita noticed Tomo closely watching the bag.
“You think she’s really haunted, don’t you?”
“I think I don’t want to find out.”
Ita pulled the doll out of the bag and wagged it at him.
“Mister Tomo, will you give me a kiiiiss?!!”
Ita spoke in a mocking little girl’s voice and erupted into laughter.
“What is wrong with you? Have you no respect for the dead?’
“Oh, c’mon. I don’t think Okiku will mind!”
Tomo exchanged choice words, which fell on deaf ears. Then he picked up his sleeping bag amongst other things and moved to a tree forty yards away.
“Good night,” he shouted in defiance.
“Can I give you a good night kiss first?” Ita responded with his girly voice.
Tomo settled into his new spot, ignoring his awful friend’s laughing fit.
Before long, he settled hard into a dream.
Tomo was living in a lavish home, surrounded by opulent and important things. He smiled at others as he toasted and threw lush parties. It all seemed the life of luxury, but at a cost. At the end of each party, he cleaned up by himself with a strong, foreboding loneliness. The next moment he was cutting the haunted doll’s hair and set her on a decorative altar with lit candles. A ghostly form of an old man kept appearing throughout, glaring at him with forlorn, angry eyes. He haunted Tomo’s every step..
One morning, he awoke to an empty house with no light. A little girl appeared before him and grabbed him by the shoulders and began to shake him.
And shake and shake and shake and shake and…
”Tomo!” A voice jerked him awake.
After snapping his eyes open, he saw Ita holding his shoulders.
“It’s alright. Just me.”
“What do you want?”
“I need to use the bathroom.”
“So go then? What are you, a child? Why wake me up?!”
“I’ve been hearing lots of strange noises, even for a forest. I wanted to be sure you’re awake if something were to happen.”
Tomo sat for a moment, fuming at his friend.
“Okay, fine. I’m already awake now. Make it quick.”
His friend wandered into the woods out of sight. And so Tomo waited.
Something felt strange and he quickly realized what it was. The forest was deathly silent, not like what Itazura said. It occurred to Tomodachi that Ita was probably just scared, which lifted his spirits a bit. He sat up and leaned against a tree and absent-mindedly dozed off.
“Uh?”
Tomo awoke in a startle before checking his watch. It’d been thirty minutes. He walked over to his friend’s camping spot to find him missing.
Something was very wrong.
“Ita!” He whisper-shouted through the woods. “Iiiitaaaaa!”
There was no response.
Shaking, he bumbled his way through the woods in the area he last saw his friend. His flashlight searched everywhere, but his friend was nowhere to be found. Starting to give up, he made a wide berth on his walk back until he tripped over something.
“Ooooof!”
The fall knocked the breath out of him as his light clattered to the forest floor. He got his bearings again and retrieved his flashlight. When he looked back at what he tripped over, he couldn’t believe his eyes.
Ita was laying on the ground with his mouth gaping open, clutching the infamous Okiku doll in his curled hands. The hair of the doll had grown way longer and was wrapped tightly around Ita’s neck.
“No….no, this isn’t real,” he whispered to himself. “I’m dreaming. I must be.”
Placing his hands over his eyes, he thought if he waited a moment and looked again then things would be different. Before he did, an unexplainable noise permeated the air.
There was no doubting it. It was the voice of a little girl singing.
Tomo panicked and rushed back to his sleeping bag, gathering all of his belongings before he rummaged through his former friend’s bag and took the provisions. Slinging his bag over his shoulder, he ran along the forest path towards the next town until he collapsed from exhaustion and sat up against a tree.
“It has him now. I’m okay,” were the last thoughts before he fell back asleep.
Tomo dreamed more of the old man he helped kill before he woke again into a bright morning. Despite the malevolent dream, he felt surprisingly refreshed. For a moment, he thought perhaps it really was all a dream.
This thought didn’t last long.
He sat up and rubbed his eyes, then jumped to his feet. The Okiku doll was sitting next to his rucksack with longer hair and Ita’s knife on the ground nearby. Okiku’s eyes stared its abyss in his direction.
“What do you want?!” He yelled.
His eyes went from the doll to the knife and very soon he understood. Every fiber in his being wanted to run screaming from the doll, but he knew it would do him no good. And so he relented to his fate.
Singing softly as he would to a child, he placed the doll in his lap and began to cut the doll’s hair with the knife. He spoke sweet and gentle, pretending that he was asking a little girl about her day and giggling at her answers. Silent tears of fear streamed down his face as he did so in an anxiety-ridden trance.
Once the doll’s hair was properly cut, he sat the doll up and stared at her for a moment.
“I’m sorry for my part in all this, you know. I’ve never been strong. I’ve always been a coward.”
The doll stared back at him and he nodded in understanding.
“Yes…yes, you’re right. I should. It’s only fitting.”
Without another word, Tomo raised the knife to his neck and dragged the blade from one side to the other. A gush of crimson flowed forth, soaking his clothes.
The doll watched...and smiled.
Back at the Mennanji Temple, monks were settling in for the night when the watchman heard a hard knock at the temple doors. As he approached, he called out.
“Who is it?”
“I’ve come to return something,” a voice said from the other side.
The monk promptly opened the door and was shocked to find no one there. He looked down and saw the Okiku doll staring up at him.
“Oh, my sweet little one,” he said softly as he picked the doll up. “Who got you this time, huh?”
He smiled with warmth and closed the door back.
“She’s back,” the watchman called out.
Another monk promptly appeared with a pair of clippers and the watchman held the doll out. Bowing, the monk with clippers took the doll and began cutting its hair.
“Who brought her back?” The hair-cutting monk asked.
“I don’t know. They weren’t there when I answered,” the watchman replied.
As he went about his watch duties for the night, the monk thought to himself.
Come to think of it, it did sound like an older gentlemen, didn’t it?

so i am a 22 year old female. i recently matched with this guy on hinge that i knew from back in the day. so this guy was my older brother’s friend’s friend. yeah, one of those haha. anyway, i was in 7th and 8th grade when they were around and they were all freshmen and sophomores in high school. when i tell you i had a MASSIVE crush on this kid…. i mean massiveeeee. i literally panned out our whole entire family in my head it was pretty silly. now even back then, i KNEW i had absolutely zero percent of a chance. not even a fraction of one. so when i saw he liked me on hinge i felt validated in every possible way. we’ve talked for about 2 and a half weeks now. we said the first time we made plans that it was up in the air and then he ended up having to work so we cancelled and said we’d reschedule. well we finally rescheduled and i have been looking forward to it all week. had the plans, got myself ready, the whole shabang. we had plans for when i got off of work so i texted him when i was off and let him know i just had to shower and then id be free for the evening. well, i got out of the shower, dried my hair, did my makeup, got dressed, and texted him to let him know i would be ready whenever & i just finished up. it is now 5 hours past the time we were supposed to hangout and he hasn’t even opened my message. now he works 2 jobs and gets maybe 4-5 hours to himself in a day. so i’m trying to give him some benefit here. but at the same time, he could’ve at least let me know there was something that came up or something, you know? so now im torn bc i wanted this SO BADLY but im so far disappointed. should i give him one more chance to make plans and see how it goes? or should i just be done and over it now? the healed, independent part of me is saying leave him in the dust but then the hopeless romantic who is shook that he looks even better than he did 8 years ago is telling me to give him one more shot. what do i do?