Chantily colts 13u
Texans
2010.09.18 08:10 verugan Texans
Official Reddit Page and Subreddit for the Houston Texans
2010.10.04 00:20 dzneill Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence Fan Club
2010.07.24 20:48 hyperbad Detroit Lions
The official subreddit for Detroit Lions football. [NFL, National Football League, NFC North, NFC Central, Black and Blue Division]
2021.01.09 17:14 CreateYoureReality CreateYoureReality NFL SUPER WILDCARD WEEKEND Analysis and Picks
 | Week 17 Recap: Meh. Overall it was a decent week, we just missed on the Jets plus some points for a big day on a few plays. submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] Singles (10-12 +4.02u) Parlays (0-2 -7u) Teasers (0-1 -3.86u) BBDLS (0-7 -9u) https://preview.redd.it/3q91paz3rba61.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f33be1eb67eb515b339c606d16728951a301378 Super Wildcard Weekend!!! Saturday Games Colts at Bills: Quite an interesting matchup to open the day. The Colts only made it to the playoffs this year because the Bills helped them get in. The Colts needed the Bills to beat Miami in week 17, otherwise the Bills would be re-matching Miami, a team that they clearly would have crushed if they rested starters for a loss in week 17 like PIT. How ironic would it be if the Colts bumped the Red HOT Bills out in the first round?! 😅 Welp.... "The Bills are the fourth team over the last 40 seasons to enter the playoffs on an eight-game cover streak. The three teams before them all covered the spread in their first playoff game and won by at least 12 points. Additionally, Indy has failed to cover in each of its last three games, which is the longest active streak by a playoff team. "... it looks as if it might be an uphill battle. However, lets not hop on the Bills Mafia train too quickly. It appears that around 80% of the tickets and the cash are on the Bills, but the line hasn't moved from its 6.5 open except to DROP down to 6 in some spots. This is very indicative on some sharp money keeping balance on the Indy side. The same is true for the total. 80% of the tickets and 75% of the money is on the over, but the line opened 51.5 and has stayed true, or dropped to 51 in some spots. Looking deeper, we see one of the Bills weaknesses is their run defense. That plays perfectly into the Colts build as they are a team that likes to play great defense, establish the run, and take a few shots with Rivers. Also, Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with an average of 10.3 first-quarter points per game and the Colts scored at least 20 points in the first half in four of their final five games. If the Colts can build an early lead and rely on the run, this game has potential for an upset. Especially with how sneaky good their defense can be. As hard as it may be to bet, the value seems to be on the Colts with the points. If you're feeling really spicy and public contrarian, this is one of the three games I think a contrarian play holds some value this weekend. Rams at Seahawks: The first of the two divisional rematches of the weekend. The LA Rams won their week 17 game with a backup QB in his first start. That places them up against the Seahawks who ended the season with a close divisional win vs. the 49ers. (Before typing this rest of this match up, I want to put a disclaimer of Bias. I am on the Hawk train this year. My futures plays include them, and Baltimore(I had 4 futures plays paying above my "true odds" but the only two I played were SEA and BAL) Take my write up on this game with a grain of salt as I will be predicting SEA to win every game until they hold the SuperBowl trophy 🤑) First off we have the Rams. One of the main things they have going for them is their defense. It is by far the best in the league, with the next closest defense being the Steelers. That defense is legit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sack Russ a few times and if they are lucky, get points on defense. The second thing they have going for them is their coach. I think (don't quote me) McVay is 5-3 against SEA since he took over and he just won last week with a QB that had never played a NFL snap and went on to throw a pick on the opening drive and score 0 TDs in the game. Even IF Goff comes back and is 100% healthy, he only threw for 536 yards with 0 touchdowns and an interception while posting a QBR of under 55 in the combined first two matchups this year. Now Seattle on the other hand. If they can pull it all together, meaning their first half of the season offense with their second half of the season defense....Game over. On the league. For this game in particular though, I don't think much has to be done. The most I can give back up QB for the Rams is 10-13 points and if Goff is in, I give him a ceiling of 20-23 points (Ceiling is all things going well) So IF Goff his 100 percent healthy, hits his ceiling, AND the Rams defense continues its regular season dominance by helping out with a score and keeping SEA under 24-27, then maybe the Rams can win. But lets be real, the Rams were my second favorite team to come out of the NFC (Behind SEA) until they played the Jets. From that game on, it has been a feeling of MEH, when considering the Rams chances to advance this year. And to top that feeling off, Russ is a perfect 5-0 in post season Home Games and Carrol is also perfect at home in the post season at 6-0. The last time that Seattle lost in the playoffs at home was against the St. Louis Rams in 2004. Now I know this isn't the Legion of Boom, and the 12th man won't be there because...COVID... but Russ and company having the edge of no travel, sleep in their own bed... Is all I need. I am ride or die on Seattle, baby! Tampa Bay at Washington: This is one of the harder games for me to gauge. My algo has this as a Tampa Bay victory the majority of the time (82/18). It sees this game similar to the Rams situation in that their defense is pretty good, can possibly get some points, but the offense may have a hard time finding the end zone. My algo does favor this spot for the WAS defense, more than it does the Rams defense, based solely on the offensive line for TB vs SEA and the mobility of SEA QB vs. Lead Toes Tommy when he is under pressure. But, EVEN IF WAS somehow gets a defensive score and an extra turnover or two, can they really keep up with how Brady has been playing as of late? Alex Smith hasss returned from his gruesome injury like some kind of God, going 5-1 in his 6 starts this year. ANNNNND The only home underdogs of over a TD in NFL playoff history: • 2010 7-9 Seahawks WON OUTRIGHT "Beast Quake" - Marshawn Lynch's TD literally set off vibrations • 2011 8-8 Broncos WON OUTRIGHT "Tebow 3:16" - Tim Tebow throws for 316 yards & OT TD • 2020 7-9 Washington ???? Five years ago, a 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers team coached by Ron Rivera beat an 11-5 Arizona Cardinals team coached by Bruce Arians in the first round of the playoffs. So confused on this one, I may just look at Gronk to score a TD (He and Brady need 1 to break the record for QB/Pass catcher post season) and stay away from everything else. But Ill probably end up teasing TB and then around game time taking WAS plus the points and looking for a middle. Sunday Games Honestly, It is 2am and I wanna get some sleep. I will touch this up tomorrow, post it and post Sunday games on Sunday morning. Singles (101-128-1, -26.09u)
Parlays (6-32, +26.96u)
Teasers (4-5, +30.74u)
Futures plays: (Disclaimer: This is the first season I am making such large Futures plays. These are based upon my algo, but more importantly the fact that the poker side of my life had a great 2020 and I set aside extra Bankroll for just this type of play. My future plays have a very small sample size of being +EV so tail with caution...because I sure am) Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u) Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u) So, when crunching the different SB scenarios (with a Bias towards SEA having a 75% chance to win this first game and 50% chances to win the next two) It gave me that the SEA/BAL matchup was at 3.4 percent of the time and if we assume SEA wins that 50% of the time we get crudely a 1.7% chance of happening. DK is paying 100-1 for SEA to beat BAL in the superbowl. Since I already have futures on SEA to win the NFC and SB, I took the SEA to beat BAL 100-1 odds thinking that if by some stroke of luck we get the 1.7% universe, I will have already won SEA to win NFC and can consider hedging those winnings on the BAL side if they happen to be catching points. I know its a universe that is only 1.7% in existence (and that's in my mind too, haha) but based upon those calculations the casinos true odds should be closer to 58.8-1 and they are paying 100 to 1. So to wrap all that up... LETS GO ALL BIRDS SUPERBOWL!!!! SEA to beat BAL in the SuperBowl (90u to win 9000u) Thanks for reading everyone! Check back tomorrow for my Sunday picks. Good luck to all! 🤩 |
2021.01.03 17:40 CreateYoureReality CreateYoureReality NFL Week 17 Analysis and Picks (Last week of regular season!!!😀 )
Weeks 15 and16 Recap: Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! The stats in the recap are just of week 15. I did not make a post or any plays on week 16, as I was busy playing an online poker tournament, here in New Jersey. My apologies for slowing down a bit this year, it has been rather busy here. We have one more week to get it in before PLAYOFFS?!., Lets see what value we can find.
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)
Sunday Games
Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.
New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.
Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.
Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.
Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.
Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn
New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.
Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑
Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.
Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.
Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.
Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)
Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)
Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)
Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)
Sunday Games
Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.
New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.
Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.
Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.
Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.
Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn
New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.
Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑
Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.
Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.
Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.
Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)
- NYG ml (1u to win 1.1u)
- N. Chubb ATTS and Browns ml (2.4u to win 2u)
- NYJ ml (1u to win 1.35u)
- NYJ +3.5 (2.6u to win 2u)
- Justin Jefferson 70+ Rec Yards and 1+Tds Over (3u to win 6.45u)
- Justin Jefferson 100+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1.8u)
- Justin Jefferson 125+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 4.5u)
- Adam Thielen 68.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
- Marvin Jones 64.5 Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1u)
- Calvin Ridley Over 87.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
- Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
- Dez Bryant ATTS and Ravens win (1u to win 3u)
- Buffalo 1Q ml (1.2u to win 1u)
- CHI +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
- Derrick Henry Over 118.5 Rush Yards (5u to win 4u)
- Brandin Cooks Over 69.5 Rec Yards (3.33u to win 3u)
- CAR ml (0.5u to win 1.13u)
- CAR +6 (2.2u to win 2u)
- LAR if the points go back to 3...and the money line if it goes over 125.
- John Wolford Over 25.5 Rush yards (5u to win 4u)
- Tyler Higbee Over 24.5 Rec Yards (1.1u to win 1u)
- Tyler Higbee Over 2.5 Rec (1u to win 1.07u)
- J. Hurts 56.5 Rush Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)
- Ravens ml, Browns ml, Seattle ml, TEN ml, J. Wolford ATTD and Rams win (2u to win 27.73u)
- Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, NYG +6.5, NYJ +6.5 (FB to win 110.56u)
- Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, TB, LV, NYG +3.5, NYJ ml, CAR +6 (5u to win 270u)
Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)
- CLE -2.5, NYJ +8.5, NYG +8.5, LAR +8.5 and U48.5, SEA ml and U52.5 (3.86u to win 23.45u)
- I have 7 in for 9u
Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)
Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!
2020.10.18 18:06 CreateYoureReality CreateYoureReality NFL Week 6 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks (And Week 5 Recap)
Week 5 Recap: Look at us, putting in another solid card, right on que. As I have said in previous years, weeks 1-4 are usually a little high variance, but weeks 5-14 are where the data collection yields it's fruits. Thursday was fantastic, we picked the underdog upset and went 4-0 on the night. Sunday was also a positive day. We were VERY close to some big boy daddy long shots. I feel confident that they will show a return eventually, they are just a long term play. Our teaser was 1 off, that tends to happen with teasers over 3/4 picks so nbd. Overall a good building week. Let's keep this train rolling!
Singles (9-8, +5.6u)
Parlays (2-1, +19.6u)
Teasers (0-1, -5u)
BBDLS (0-8, -6.8u)
SUNDAY GAMES
Chicago at Carolina: Bears coming off a win over the Bucs and some extra days rest. Carolina also coming off a win (3 game win streak) where they were underdogs. At the beginning of the week when the lines were released I jumped on the Bears +3 And the Ml +120 for 2u and 1u respectively. However, the more research that was done, the more I like Carolina. Neither of these teams are proven winners yet as all of their wins have come against losing teams. Carolina is like TEN in that they aren't flashy, they just are well coached, execute properly and do their best to minimize mistakes while forcing the other team to WIN the game. As we have seen when they face a team that can win, that team does win. But if they face teams that have trouble getting the win...Carolina out executes them and wins comfortably. The main problem I see Carolina having when losing is they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. (27th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on just 10 of its 20 red zone trips) Unfortunately for them, this is the Bears defensive strength. They are currently No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down.
A side story I am looking at in this game is running back Mike Davis returning to CHI (the team that drafted him and then let him go). He has been running as an unstoppable force these last 3 games and I look for it to mostly continue. I do think against this bears front he is more likely to get his action through receptions and YAC than through handoffs.
Detroit at Jacksonville: This one should be simple (I feel like I say that a lot for Detroit write ups) Detroit is coming off a bye and this is the perfect time to put together some wins. They have a VERY favorable schedule coming up but to have any shot at catching Green Bay or Chicago need to take care of the easy ones. This week and next week are those games.
Jacksonville is coming off another loss, this one to the previously winless Texans. Their main problem is defense. They have given up 30+ to every team in their losing streak and the only team they beat was, IMO a bad QB. (Late age Phillip Rivers in a season opener with no preseason) Bad news for them, as mentioned, the Lions are coming off a bye week and have now returned previously injured players. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a day and keep an eye out for the return of Kenny Galloday.
My algo likes this game for an over and so I put in a Same game parlay on Fanduel for half a unit. It is a BBDLS to win +150u. There are a few games to look at same game parlays on, and with the way both of these two teams have played defensively, this is definitely one of those games.
Side note, this was a pretty detailed video explaining why the Lions will defeat the Jags: https://youtu.be/7RVcmu3fHeM
Atlanta at Minnesota: Failcons blew another one. They started out exactly as I predicted, leaning heavy on Gurley and blitzing Teddy B, getting a lead... but then they just stalled. Now... Quinn is gone.
Minnesota played a hell of a game week 5 and gave themselves every opportunity to win. They just didn't convert in a key spot and gave Russ the chance to win it...and that's what he did. Based on team vs team matchup, we would expect the Vikings to take this one. Cousins has had a rough first few matchups, but a shitty Falcons D could be his elixir back to at least an average form. Cook is out, but Mattison is a very capable backup that has replaced Cook well. The key to this one will be MIN D. It was able to slow Russ down last week, finally showing signs of cohesion, but once crunch time came, they fell apart. Can they keep climbing, back to a normal form? Or will Matt Ryan look to prove it was Quinn and his leadership that held him back and come out and win this one.
Personally I am a huge fan of betting on a team when they get an interim coach. We took Houston last week, and they rolled nicely. Here is what interim coach Raheem Morris had to say, "At the end of the day, we have to find a way to put our foot on people's throats and end games," Morris said. "That's what has got to happen."
Feels like he knows his defense is trash and he's going to be very loosey goosey with his play calling this week. This is another game my algo likes the over in and has potential for Same game parlays on player props.
Houston at Tennessee: Houston broke the winless streak and the curse of Obrien has been lifted. They looked good, but let's keep in mind that was vs a sinking Jacksonville team. Tennessee, as predicted and given as a play to my premium subscribers, continued the winning ways and crushed the Bills in a Tuesday game! Now on short rest return home to take on the Texans in an important divisional match up.
This is tough because TEN is coming off a shorrrrrt week. After playing Tuesday night, that only leaves them 4 days of travel, rest, game planning, and the tons of Covid protocols to go through. I feel like as the better, complete team, they have the overall advantage given all things neutral. However with the increased energy for the Houston team after the coaching chances and first win and the short week for TEN defense to recover, my algo leans a HOU cover and possible win.
Washington at NY Giants: Whelp, Washington went exactly like I wrote last week, haha. We got to see Alex Smith! Seriously though, Kyle Allen looked pretty legit in the first quarter. He was a Full participant in practice on Friday and looks to be good to go for this one. On the other side Daniel Jones is just not progressing. Last week the Giants put up over 30 points and Jones threw 0 TDs. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORITES?!
I feel like Rivera's thought process is...if we can win the next 3 games, (2 against an 0-5 team and 1 vs. the worst defense in the league right now) we are 4-4 and 4-0 in the division. With another divisional game vs the depleted eagles still to be played this season. I expect Rivera to unleash some early deep balls and pressure the shit out of Jones.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 17 years since a Browns win in Pittsburg. Cleveland did well for us last week and got the upset vs the Colts. They are looking like the Titans, establish a good run game, have the QB make manageable throws, take a few shots, play above average D.
The Steelers are 4-0 and their defense is averaging 3+ sacks(5 PER) and 1+ INT per game this year...but who have they played? winless Giants, and three one win teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Broncos...
The major weakness to the Steeler D is that they are allow teams to convert a whopping 50% on third down.
Baltimore at Philadelphia: Ehhhh, another one of those game I don't want to touch. Outside of the win vs the 49ers, I don't know what is keeping this line between 7-9.5. I am not sure why it didn't open closer to 10 than 7. Usually when something like this happens it's a flag for me to stay away or take the dog. However Philly? I'd rather lay money on the Jets ml than the Phl ml right now
Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cincy lost what looked to be a blowout vs the ravens. But if you look closer, their defense played surprisingly well against one of the better offenses in the league. Burrow was again sacked like 47 times and the offense had trouble getting anything going. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns where its now becoming glaringly obvious that Old man Rivers is getting too old to be a starting QB for a team with this good of a defense and this good of an offensive line. I mean shit, you put Sam Darnold in this team and I bet he looks twice as good as Rivers. This will be an interesting game and I am excited to see Burrow get his second win ;)
Green Bay at Tampa Bay: BATTLE OF THE BAYS 4-0 Packers traveling to Florida to take on the 3-2 Bucs. Both teams off rest with the Packers coming off a bye week and the Bucs playing the previous TNF. The Packers are getting Davante Adams and Mercedes Lewis back. The Bucs are getting back almost there whole offense in Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. Honestly, my algo has this game as TB -2.5. It targets the Bucs pass rush as being the difference maker in this one. When under pressure Rodgers goes from a passer rating of 141.1 and a completion % of 80 with 9.4 YPA all the way to a 68.8 passer rating with a completion % of 34.6 and 6YPA. So far this season the GB O line has protected Rodgers well. However, they have yet to face a formidable pass rush with their only challenges being MIN and NO, both shells of their former defenses.
LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams are turning into a very nice team this year. I have been high on them all season, and I will continue smoking that dooby for this game. Don't get me wrong, there is a reason this game is only 3.5 even though the Rams blew out their last opponent and the 49ers GOT blown out, but the Rams this year feel like the 49ers of last year. Stout defense, a committee of running backs, both of those elevating average QB play to above average. As you can see, without the dominant running game and stout defense, Jimmy G (or whoever plays QB for the previous SB finalist 49ers) struggles.
NY Jets at Miami: No analysis for this one. I am skipping it except for some small plays on the Jets. I am not confident enough in MIA to take them as a large favorite. I am not comfortable enough in Joe Flaco to take him at this point in his career for any large amount. But, this is the NFL and any given Sunday so I feel there is always a little value on massive dogs that the public is against.
Denver at New England: Both of these teams have been off the field so long, how can we know what to expect? Who is even QB for both of these teams? Is Cam back and if so, is he healthy? Personally I think it shouldn't matter too much for the overall winner of the game. You give me Billy B with two weeks to prepare and I'll take him coach for the Falcons over this Denver team. But the spread is a decent amount of points to cover with little knowledge on the status of the players. Outside of some ml parlays, I will be avoiding this game.
***I put in a few bets at the beginning of the week to start getting the best of numbers I like. Sometimes my fade switches as I learn more info throughout the week. The bets with \** were all placed at the beginning of the week, so tail those with caution.*
Singles (29-30, -2.56u)
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Singles (9-8, +5.6u)
Parlays (2-1, +19.6u)
Teasers (0-1, -5u)
BBDLS (0-8, -6.8u)
SUNDAY GAMES
Chicago at Carolina: Bears coming off a win over the Bucs and some extra days rest. Carolina also coming off a win (3 game win streak) where they were underdogs. At the beginning of the week when the lines were released I jumped on the Bears +3 And the Ml +120 for 2u and 1u respectively. However, the more research that was done, the more I like Carolina. Neither of these teams are proven winners yet as all of their wins have come against losing teams. Carolina is like TEN in that they aren't flashy, they just are well coached, execute properly and do their best to minimize mistakes while forcing the other team to WIN the game. As we have seen when they face a team that can win, that team does win. But if they face teams that have trouble getting the win...Carolina out executes them and wins comfortably. The main problem I see Carolina having when losing is they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. (27th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on just 10 of its 20 red zone trips) Unfortunately for them, this is the Bears defensive strength. They are currently No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down.
A side story I am looking at in this game is running back Mike Davis returning to CHI (the team that drafted him and then let him go). He has been running as an unstoppable force these last 3 games and I look for it to mostly continue. I do think against this bears front he is more likely to get his action through receptions and YAC than through handoffs.
Detroit at Jacksonville: This one should be simple (I feel like I say that a lot for Detroit write ups) Detroit is coming off a bye and this is the perfect time to put together some wins. They have a VERY favorable schedule coming up but to have any shot at catching Green Bay or Chicago need to take care of the easy ones. This week and next week are those games.
Jacksonville is coming off another loss, this one to the previously winless Texans. Their main problem is defense. They have given up 30+ to every team in their losing streak and the only team they beat was, IMO a bad QB. (Late age Phillip Rivers in a season opener with no preseason) Bad news for them, as mentioned, the Lions are coming off a bye week and have now returned previously injured players. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a day and keep an eye out for the return of Kenny Galloday.
My algo likes this game for an over and so I put in a Same game parlay on Fanduel for half a unit. It is a BBDLS to win +150u. There are a few games to look at same game parlays on, and with the way both of these two teams have played defensively, this is definitely one of those games.
Side note, this was a pretty detailed video explaining why the Lions will defeat the Jags: https://youtu.be/7RVcmu3fHeM
Atlanta at Minnesota: Failcons blew another one. They started out exactly as I predicted, leaning heavy on Gurley and blitzing Teddy B, getting a lead... but then they just stalled. Now... Quinn is gone.
Minnesota played a hell of a game week 5 and gave themselves every opportunity to win. They just didn't convert in a key spot and gave Russ the chance to win it...and that's what he did. Based on team vs team matchup, we would expect the Vikings to take this one. Cousins has had a rough first few matchups, but a shitty Falcons D could be his elixir back to at least an average form. Cook is out, but Mattison is a very capable backup that has replaced Cook well. The key to this one will be MIN D. It was able to slow Russ down last week, finally showing signs of cohesion, but once crunch time came, they fell apart. Can they keep climbing, back to a normal form? Or will Matt Ryan look to prove it was Quinn and his leadership that held him back and come out and win this one.
Personally I am a huge fan of betting on a team when they get an interim coach. We took Houston last week, and they rolled nicely. Here is what interim coach Raheem Morris had to say, "At the end of the day, we have to find a way to put our foot on people's throats and end games," Morris said. "That's what has got to happen."
Feels like he knows his defense is trash and he's going to be very loosey goosey with his play calling this week. This is another game my algo likes the over in and has potential for Same game parlays on player props.
Houston at Tennessee: Houston broke the winless streak and the curse of Obrien has been lifted. They looked good, but let's keep in mind that was vs a sinking Jacksonville team. Tennessee, as predicted and given as a play to my premium subscribers, continued the winning ways and crushed the Bills in a Tuesday game! Now on short rest return home to take on the Texans in an important divisional match up.
This is tough because TEN is coming off a shorrrrrt week. After playing Tuesday night, that only leaves them 4 days of travel, rest, game planning, and the tons of Covid protocols to go through. I feel like as the better, complete team, they have the overall advantage given all things neutral. However with the increased energy for the Houston team after the coaching chances and first win and the short week for TEN defense to recover, my algo leans a HOU cover and possible win.
Washington at NY Giants: Whelp, Washington went exactly like I wrote last week, haha. We got to see Alex Smith! Seriously though, Kyle Allen looked pretty legit in the first quarter. He was a Full participant in practice on Friday and looks to be good to go for this one. On the other side Daniel Jones is just not progressing. Last week the Giants put up over 30 points and Jones threw 0 TDs. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORITES?!
I feel like Rivera's thought process is...if we can win the next 3 games, (2 against an 0-5 team and 1 vs. the worst defense in the league right now) we are 4-4 and 4-0 in the division. With another divisional game vs the depleted eagles still to be played this season. I expect Rivera to unleash some early deep balls and pressure the shit out of Jones.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 17 years since a Browns win in Pittsburg. Cleveland did well for us last week and got the upset vs the Colts. They are looking like the Titans, establish a good run game, have the QB make manageable throws, take a few shots, play above average D.
The Steelers are 4-0 and their defense is averaging 3+ sacks(5 PER) and 1+ INT per game this year...but who have they played? winless Giants, and three one win teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Broncos...
The major weakness to the Steeler D is that they are allow teams to convert a whopping 50% on third down.
Baltimore at Philadelphia: Ehhhh, another one of those game I don't want to touch. Outside of the win vs the 49ers, I don't know what is keeping this line between 7-9.5. I am not sure why it didn't open closer to 10 than 7. Usually when something like this happens it's a flag for me to stay away or take the dog. However Philly? I'd rather lay money on the Jets ml than the Phl ml right now
Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cincy lost what looked to be a blowout vs the ravens. But if you look closer, their defense played surprisingly well against one of the better offenses in the league. Burrow was again sacked like 47 times and the offense had trouble getting anything going. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns where its now becoming glaringly obvious that Old man Rivers is getting too old to be a starting QB for a team with this good of a defense and this good of an offensive line. I mean shit, you put Sam Darnold in this team and I bet he looks twice as good as Rivers. This will be an interesting game and I am excited to see Burrow get his second win ;)
Green Bay at Tampa Bay: BATTLE OF THE BAYS 4-0 Packers traveling to Florida to take on the 3-2 Bucs. Both teams off rest with the Packers coming off a bye week and the Bucs playing the previous TNF. The Packers are getting Davante Adams and Mercedes Lewis back. The Bucs are getting back almost there whole offense in Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. Honestly, my algo has this game as TB -2.5. It targets the Bucs pass rush as being the difference maker in this one. When under pressure Rodgers goes from a passer rating of 141.1 and a completion % of 80 with 9.4 YPA all the way to a 68.8 passer rating with a completion % of 34.6 and 6YPA. So far this season the GB O line has protected Rodgers well. However, they have yet to face a formidable pass rush with their only challenges being MIN and NO, both shells of their former defenses.
LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams are turning into a very nice team this year. I have been high on them all season, and I will continue smoking that dooby for this game. Don't get me wrong, there is a reason this game is only 3.5 even though the Rams blew out their last opponent and the 49ers GOT blown out, but the Rams this year feel like the 49ers of last year. Stout defense, a committee of running backs, both of those elevating average QB play to above average. As you can see, without the dominant running game and stout defense, Jimmy G (or whoever plays QB for the previous SB finalist 49ers) struggles.
NY Jets at Miami: No analysis for this one. I am skipping it except for some small plays on the Jets. I am not confident enough in MIA to take them as a large favorite. I am not comfortable enough in Joe Flaco to take him at this point in his career for any large amount. But, this is the NFL and any given Sunday so I feel there is always a little value on massive dogs that the public is against.
Denver at New England: Both of these teams have been off the field so long, how can we know what to expect? Who is even QB for both of these teams? Is Cam back and if so, is he healthy? Personally I think it shouldn't matter too much for the overall winner of the game. You give me Billy B with two weeks to prepare and I'll take him coach for the Falcons over this Denver team. But the spread is a decent amount of points to cover with little knowledge on the status of the players. Outside of some ml parlays, I will be avoiding this game.
***I put in a few bets at the beginning of the week to start getting the best of numbers I like. Sometimes my fade switches as I learn more info throughout the week. The bets with \** were all placed at the beginning of the week, so tail those with caution.*
Singles (29-30, -2.56u)
- CHI +3 (2.4U to win 2u) \*\**
- Mike Davis 5.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1.22u)
- Mike Davis Anytime TD (1.6u to win 1u)
- Mike Davis 58 Rec Yards (1u to win 1.95u)
- CHI/CAR Total Field Goals Made 3.5 Over (4u to win 5u)
- DET Team Total 27.5 Over (2.3u to win 2u)
- HOU +4 (2.13u to win 2u)
- HOU ml (1u to win 1.75u)
- WAS +3 (2.4u to win 2u) **\*
- WAS ml (1.5u to win 1.88u) **\*
- WAS HT ml/FT ml (1u to win 2.2u)
- CLE +4 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
- CLE ml (1u to win 1.6u) **\*
- Kareem Hunt anytime TD (2.75u to win 2u)
- B. Roethlisberger & C. Wentz 1 or more Passing TDs Each (1u to win 1u)
- CIN + 7.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
- TB ml (1u to win 1.15u) **\*
- NYJ ml (1u to win 3.2u) **\*
- NYJ +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
- DAL ml (1u to win 1.2u) **\*
- I have many more plays that are going out to my subscribers. Most of them are the props I found +EV. The targeted games are DET/JAX, ATL/MIN, CLE/PIT, AND AZ/DAL.
- CLE HT ml/FT ml, BAL ml, IND ml (2u to win 11.22u) **\*
- WAS 1h +1.5, BAL ml, DET ml, IND ml (2.5u to win 9.9u)
- DET ml, WAS ml, TBml (0u to win 57.57u) SugarHouse had a deposit promo this weekend. This is the FreeBet from that promo.
- HOU +7.5, CIN +8.5, CLE/PIT 44.5 OVER, NYJ +10.5 (5u to win 42.16u) 50% Odds Boost on this one
- BAL ml, DET ml (3.2u to win 3u)
- WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5 (4.5u to win 10u)
- WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5, NE -1, TB +8, DET +3.5, NE -1 (3u to win 21u)
- We have another 7 of these rocking for a total of 6.42u wagered.
2019.10.20 17:37 CreateYoureReality CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 7 (Sunday Games)
 | submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/u77j2la4upt31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0698ea482320262df53c90032211c8f324ddc25c Hi All! Big slate with some really nice match ups. First lets recap the TNF game. Singles: 0-4 (-6.13u) Parlay: none BBDLS: none Teasers: none Notes: Well, this was a rough one to watch. On the bright side, I learned a lot! The Broncos almost had that first quarter. They came out strong, but I think they were a little deflated after missing the two point conversion. Conversely Maholmes came out much hotter than expected. It sucked seeing PM go down like that so early in the game but, it gave our wagers life. The QB for the other side however, Flacco, is done. (IMO) He may have another good game here and there, but he looks SHOOK. He looks so scared to stand in the pocket and take a hit. I think any team that can pressure him will have easy wins. Tyreek Alllmost came through for us in the end having a bomb for a TD, but not quite reaching the yards needed. Sucks we lost our picks, but good to learn about Flacco. Early Games (1pm) Arizona @ NY Giants (-3/-4): A fantastic match up to start the day with! Two first round QB picks go head to head. The number one pick, Kyler Murray, and company are coming in with a 2 game win streak while the number 6 pick, Daniel Jones, and the Giants are returning from a few extra days of rest. This extra rest comes at the perfect time as the Giants are getting back offensive juggernaut, Saquan Barkley. They also see the return of a favorable target in TE Evan Ingram. Other than Sterling Shepherd not returning for the Giants, they seem to be near full strength. The Cardinals, not so much. While they do see the return of Patrick Peterson (6 game suspension), they are going to be a little short on offense. So far out is (DL) Zach Allen (neck), (RB) D.Jd. Foster (hamstring) and (OL) Brett Toth (illness). Game time decisions are (WR) Christian Kirk and (RB) David Johnson who is probable to play (but with an ankle injury). If for some reason he is out, Arizona will be down to only 1 RB, Chase Edmunds. They could use both of those RBs to help pull linebackers in because the Giants are horrible against the pass. So far they have let opposing QBs average a 103 Passer rating and put up 285 yards p/g passing They rank 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded. (however, I take these stats with a grain of salt. First two games Giants were flat because Eli, after that Saquan was out, costing the Giants TOP and putting their defense on the field longer) Luckily for NY, the Arizona defense is worse. The are 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards conceded and are the only team in the league not to have an INT. Combine the return of Evan Ingram with a Cardinals defense that has given up a league-high 599 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends... I think this is also a good game to look at props:
Houston @ Indianapolis(PK/-1): Here we have one of the more anticipated match ups of the day. A divisional battle for the current 1st place in the division. Both are coming off an upset victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead. But, the Colts are coming off a bye week and extra rest. First we start with injuries. The Colts utilized their bye week and are nearing full strength. (LB) Darius Leonard has been out for 3 games, but looks to return. The Texans have sustained some key injuries. They lost Bradley Roby (corner) and offensive tackle Tytus Howard. DeAndre Hopkins was limited in practice (ribs) but appears to be a go for Sunday. The Texans offense is pretty good. They are 1st in the league on 3rd down completion and averaging 4.9 ypc on the ground. The Colts D is pretty weak vs. the run giving up 5.1ypc (28th). Their pass D is pretty horrible too, giving out ratings of: QBR (29th) completion % (26th) and 3rd down stopping (26th). However, it is the same story on the other side of the ball as the Colts run offense averages 142 ypg (4th) and 4.5 ypc (13th). They are going against a Texans run D that gives up 4.4 ypc (18th). The Colts offense is (9th) on 3rd down at 46% and Houston is bottom 10 in the league at 3rd down stoppage. There are these interesting stats: Jacoby Brisset has only been sacked 6 times this year and colts are currently the least penalized team in the league. Also, Brisset is somehow 3-0 vs Houston? (Not sure this stat means much). My algo has this one as a 21-21 PK. That doesn't include a HFA adjustment. This easily has me leaning the home team. Personally, I feel like the extra rest, the HFA, and the offensive line/run game of the Colts are the factors that tip the scale. (I do like the Colts in this game, but I still favor Houston to win the division) Something to keep in mind for this game. Yea, Watson has put up over 80 points the last two weeks...But how did he look against two of the three formidable defenses he faced? 13 points against JAX and 10 points against the Panthers. Both home games. He did score 28 against the Saints D....but that was week 1, when everyone is just getting in the flow. I expect the Colts to to a much better job at keeping the Texans below 20 points. If I was looking props in this game, it would be Marlon Mack for IND. Miami @ Buffalo(-16.5/-17): Probably one of the lesser watched games of the slate. Buffalo is coming off a nice rest. Miami is coming off a missed Tua-point conversion that was probably their best shot at a win this year. They also benched Rosen in the middle of last game for Fitzpatrick. He came in and did OK vs the Redskins throwing 12-18 for 132 yards, 1 TD and almost a 107 QBR. However, that was vs. a Redskins D. This is vs. a Bills D that is top 5 in pretty much every category. They also have a takeaway in 4 out of 5 games this season. Which sucks for Fitz-running out of- Magic who through 4 INTs in BOTH game 1 and game 2 for Miami. Bills rush offense averages 139 ypg (6th) and 4.8 ypc (10th) and they will be facing a Miami defense that has 4.7 ypc allowed (23rd). Here you would think the focus will be on Frank Gore one of his former teams, but personally I think the focus is going to shift to the return of Rookie (RB) Devin Singletary. He has missed the Bills last 3 games with a hamstring injury, but looks ready to go. The Bills should look to use him to balance the load on the aging Gore. Fitz is a favorite to throw a TD and and INT. But barring some miracle defensive showing from the Dolphins, i see this one as an easy win for Buffalo. Jacksonville @ Cincinatti(+4/+4.5): Here we see if the Stash can get back on track, vs the win less Bengals. The Bengals are 0-6, but they have lost 4 of those 6 by less than a TD. Jacksonville was disappointing at home last week but I think more credit has to be given to the Saints D rather than taken away from Jacksonville. First lets dive into the injuries. The Bengals have a ton: OUT: (OT) Cordy Glenn (suspended); (WR) A.J. Green (ankle); (OT) Andre Smith (ankle); (CB) William Jackson III (shoulder); (CB) Dre Kirkpatrick (knee); (DE) Carl Lawson (hamstring); (G )John Miller (groin). Doubtful: (DE) Carlos Dunlap (knee). The Jags injuries are all on the offensive side of the ball: Out: (WR) Marqise Lee (ankle); (TE) Geoff Swaim (concussion/ankle). Questionable: (WR) Dede Westbrook (shoulder). However, the Jags are very Four-tu-nette to have Leonard on their team. He has 584 yards with 5.1 ypc and is facing a Cincy run D that gives up 5.3 ypc. (good for last in the NFL) Looking defensively, the Jags 19 sacks (4th) this year and Dalton has been sacked 22 times this year (28th). The Mustache has has 9 TDs to 2 picks and a 97.5 passer rating (13th). I look for him to get back on track this week against a Bengals pass D that has let opposing QBs have a 105 passer rating (27th) and 69% completion percentage (24th). If I look at props this game, I will probably be looking the way of DJ Chark. He has been killing it since the insertion of Minshew and with the string of offensive weapons out for Jacksonville, I look for Chark to have increased opportunities. \**Another props look might be Joe Mixon. He has averaged over 100 yards in his last 10 home games. (Although a main counter to this stat is the most likely game script has Cincy playing from behind meaning less rushing opportunities) His total is currently only at 67.5.* San Francisco @ Washington (+9.5/+10): Another game this will likely be one of the least watched. The undefeated 49ers travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins who are coming off their first and likely only victory this season. This game sees the 49ers coach return to the place that last fired him. First we look at the injuries. For the Redskins, Running back Chris Thompson is OUT with a toe injury. Tight end Vernon Davis is OUT with a concussion. Offensive lineman Wes Martin is OUT with a chest injury. Deshazor Everett is OUT with an ankle injury. Linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemson is OUT with a hamstring injury and Cornerback Josh Norman is QUESTIONABLE with thigh/hand injuries. For the 49ers, OUT is (DT) DJ Jones (hamstring), (CB) Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), (OT) Joe Staley (fibula), and (WR) Deebo Samuel (groin). With (RB) Raheem Mostert (knee) listed as questionable. The 49er offense is pretty good with their rush offense leading the way. Rushing for 180 ypg and doing so at 4.6 ypc. The Redskins rush D gives up 134 ypg at 4.6ypc. Sadly the Redskins pass D isn't much either, allowing opposing QBs an average 71% completion percentage and a 101 passer rating. My algo has this as SF -14. (However, this is before injuries and... the allllll important trip from West coast to East coast for a 1pm game... adjustments have been made) The algo has this as a 31-17 game but I can easily see SF putting up more...OR less. For that reason this will probably be a no play for me. (Although, as my consistent readers know, I love betting the first quarter against West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game. This may get a look, especially if I can find a +3 or better for WAS.) Oakland @ Green Bay(-4.5/-5/-5.5): One of the bigger and more curious line movements of the week. Opened at -7, Green Bay WON vs the Lions, and the line has moved allllll the way do to settle at -4.5 at most available books. Very Very curious to me. Not only is then line moving against Green Bay (getting almost half the tickets written on them), but GB WON their last game!!! This has to be a red flag for heavy sharp action on the Raiders point spread. Which, when we dive in, has some serious merit. First of all, the Raiders are coming off a bye, having played their last game two weeks ago in London and put an upset on the Bears. Secondly, the Oakland offense is doing pretty well right now. Derrick Carr is leading the league in completion percentage at 73.3%. To compliment that, the Raiders rush attack is running at an average of 4.9 ypc and gaining and average 134 ypg. The GB rush D has given up 120 ypg in 4 out of 6 games this year and is averaging giving up 124 ypg rushing on the season. Unfortunately for the Raiders, their Pass D isn't the best. They did pretty well in their last game, but it was against a Chase Daniel lead Bears offense. Overall they give up an average 104 QBR (26th) to opposing QBs and 264 ypg (22nd). Let's take a look at the injury report. For the Packers, receiver Davante Adams (toe) and safety Darnell Savage (ankle) are both out. Receiver Geronimo Allison (concussion) and tight end Robert Tonyan (hip) are doubtful and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (calf/back), receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/back) and cornerback Tony Brown (hamstring) are all questionable. On the bright side for the Pack, cornerback Kevin King, tight end Jimmy Graham and cornerback Tramon Williams are all expected to play. For the Raiders, Tyrell Williams and Arden Key are OUT. Right tackle Trent Brown is doubtful, while receivereturner Dwayne Harris and guard Gabe Jackson are both questionable. The Algo has GB as -5.5 in this one, but the the heavy line movement that is counter to GB having a win on Monday night has me leaning OAK or stay away. Minnesota @ Detroit(+2.5): Minnesota coming off back to back wins where Cousins took care of both his crying receivers. Detroit is coming off a heartbreaking loss that in the opinion of many could be chalked up to the Refs. However when we look closer we see that the Lions were 3 of 13 on 3rd down and kicked 5 field goals (two inside the ten yard line). They also had a stupid 12 men on the field penalty in a key spot. Let's take a look at the injury reports. For the Lions, no new injuries appeared to take anyone out of the game. Defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, safety Quandre Diggs, offensive tackle Rick Wagner, fullback Nick Bawden, and cornerback Darius Slay are all questionable, but all will most likely play. For the Vikings, only line backer Ben Gedeon is out, while LB Kentrell Brothers remains questionable. This feels like it has the makings of a low scoring game where Stafford has the ball in his hands to win it or lose it in the 4th. Will he redeem the divisional loss to Rodgers on MNF in the closing minutes? Or will the Lions fade away in the division race? The Minn D speaks for itself, top 10 in EVERY Defensive category. The Minn run game is also elite averaging 5.1 ypc (3rd) and it will be facing a Detroit run D that gives up 5.1 ypc(28th). My model had this opening at Detroit -1.5 but after the loss the GB, I can see why the line is moving. I can't imagine it getting up to +3 but if it does, I will be all over the Lions. I would have to say my strongest lean here is towards the Under. Barring a few defensive scores, I think this game is ground and pound with a side of slow clock management and has a good shot at staying under the total. I would be surprised if either team scores over 21 here. The Vikings (even with the 28-10 win over the NYG) are only averaging 17 ppg on the road. I will be looking for a closer game and leaning under the total. L.A. Rams @ Atlanta (+3): The last 1pm game on the slate and it's a tough one to decipher. The Rams started off great going 3-0 but have since dropped 3 straight. (Two against division opponents) The Falcon's, while it looks like a shit show sitting at 1-5, actually still have a outside shot at winning their division. This is because they haven't played ANY of their divisional games yet. It would be sooooo sweet to see them somehow go 6-0 in the division and lose every other game but still win the division. Which...if their defense can somehow get good overnight.. could actually be a possibility with the way Matt Ryan is playing. Last week he went 30-36 350+ yards 4 TDs and a 145 QBR. He has had a 300+ yard passing game EVERY GAME this season. And only thrown less than 2 TDs one time. Unfortunately for him, he faces the Rams D that only gives up 241 ypg (14th) The placed Talib on IR, and traded away Marcus Peters, but replaced him with a fancy new toy in Jaylen Ramsey. On the other side of the ball we have the Rams offense. Which it seems like something is a little GeOFF. Geoff has 7 TDs and 7 picks with a QBR of 80...On the bright side for Geoff, he seems to be better when he isn't pressured (as are all QBs) and the Falcons only have 5 sacks on the year. He will be facing a Falcons third down defense that is the worst in the league allowing almost half of the 3rd down plays to convert against them. This should be a defense for Geoff to get right against as they allow an average QBR of 120 while allowing opposing QBs to throw for 8.3 ypa. All signs point to an LA bounce back. No real injuries to note. Gurley is back for the Rams. The Falcon's are without star defensive player Desmond Trufant but honestly, he hasn't looked good enough this year for me to warrant that a big drop. My algo has this as LA -1. There is a good chance come game time I am leaning Falcons with the points. \**Interesting note, this game also falls into my favorite spot, West coast teams traveling East for a 1pm start**** Afternoon Games (4pm) L.A. Chargers @ Tennessee (-2.5): For our first afternoon game of the slate we have two crappy teams, likely to miss the playoffs. On the one hand we have the Chargers who have lost 2 straight as a favorite. On the other side of the ball we have the Titans that have also lost 2 straight. First lets look at injuries. Los Angeles will be without their two starting defensive tackles, Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane. Melvin Ingram is doubtful. The Titans have some questionable ( http://www.espn.com/nfl/injuries/_/team/ten ) but the most note worthy injury is the possible absence of Delanie Walker. Starting with the Chargers, they have been horrible in the turnover department, giving up 3 in each of their recent losses and a whopping 11 on the season so far. One bright spot for the Chargers is the opportunity at pass rush. They currently only have 12 sacks on the season but in this game they face a Titans team that has allowed 29 sacks! (the most in the NFL) It would be nice if the Chargers could get their run game back on track, having 4 straight games under 100 yards rushing and averaging only 3.8 ypc. Rivers is going to have his hands full, facing a Titans D that is legit. They only give up an average of 217 ypg passing (6th) and limit opposing QBs to a 86.4 QBR (11th). While this is probably going to be a crappy game, my algo has the Chargers coming out as -3.5 favorite, predicting a low scoring affair around the 18-13 range. Should be interesting to see which team gives themselves some hope! New Orleans @ Chicago(-4/-4.5): New Orleans rolls into Chicago riding a hot 4 game win streak on the back of an even hotter defense. Although this week the Saints will be without Jared Cook, Alvin Kamar, and Tre'quan Smith. Chicago tries to wake up as they see the return of QB Mitch Trubitsky and WR Taylor Gabriel after a bye week and some rest. Currently the Bears offense needs some work. They have only scored an average of 17.4 ppg (27th), gain 266 ypg (30th), pass for 185 ypg (30th) and convert on only 1 out of 3 third downs. That offense is going up a Saints D that has been on fire. They haven't allowed more than 260 yards in their last 3 games and their pass rush has a 33% pressure rate (3rd) and 18 sacks (6th). The Saints are going up against a rested Bears D that is only giving up 14 ppg (3rd) and has 10 turnovers (9th) in 5 games. Currently this is an underdog or stay away for me. My Algo has Chicago as 4 point favorites in a 17-13 style game AND the RLM (3 out of 5 tickets are on NO and the points but the line has moved from a -3 open to -4/-4.5) indicates that sharp money is on Chicago... But I cant help thinking the #Saints are #Blessed. Given that a positive case can be made for both sides, it is probably best to avoid this game. However, I may be looking at the Under given both teams defensive track records. Baltimore @ Seattle (-2/-3): Ooooo boy, I am excited to see this one. Not that there are many playoff implications, as this is a non conference match up, but I am excited to see both of these teams (that are usually known for defense) compete with their explosive QBs. First off, very curious that the lines I have are -2 and -3 and not -2.5 and -3. The DK/SH books must have had a recent large wager on Baltimore. Russel Wilson is currently on fire and seriously stating his claim to the MVP trophy this year. He has 14 TDs and 0 INTs with a QBR of 125. He averages 9 yards per attempt (2nd) and has a completion percentage of 72.5!!! However for this game he will be without one of his favorite targets this year, Will Dissly. On the other side of the ball we have the have the Seattle D. So far, the rush D is giving up 4.7 ypc (27th) which doesn't bode well vs. the combo of Mark Ingram and the designed run plays for Jackson. \**An interesting note someone tweeted:* Russell Wilson's three career pick-sixes have gone to a King, a Prince, and a Captain, and he plays an Earl this Sunday. Safety Earl Thomas returns to Seattle this Sunday as a part of the Raven's team. He left Seattle after an injury during a contract hold out in 2018.\*** If I had to take a side, I feel like it would be the dog and the points. 4 of 5 of Seattle's wins this year have been by 4 points or less and 4 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a TD or less. This does have potential for a teaser. (Baltimore and the over) Night Game (8 pm) Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5/-3): For the last game of the day we have a battle for the NFC east. The coach for the Eagles was heard on a radio show saying "we're gonna win this game". The Eagles come into this game after getting smoked by the Vikings. Dallas is in a similar sinking ship losing their last 3. But, last year they started in the same ship going 3-5 only to finish 10-6. To plug the holes, it's going to have to start with turnovers. They had 2 in their first 3 games, but have given up 6 in their 3 losses. The Eagles offense looks decent. With Wentz throwing for 12 TDs - 3 INTs, averaging 243 ypg with a 94 QBR. The Eagles rushing attack is getting 4 ypc (19th) and 111 ypg (15th). The Eagles D on the other hand is medicare - bad. The Eagles Do have 14 sacks...but 10 of them came in one game (Jets). The Eagles Pass D gives up 280 ypg (29th) and has given up 13 pass TDs (28th). The Eagles like to stack the box which is bad news for Zeke, but that is good news for all of Dallas WRs. Because of the heavy run stuffing action that Philly produces, they have created a defense that is extremely susceptible to big plays in the air. "No team has allowed more 30-yard passing touchdowns or more 100-yard receivers than the Eagles" The injury reports for both teams: Dallas
Singles 37-41 (+4.33u)
|
2019.09.29 02:54 CreateYoureReality CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks (Sunday Games)
 | submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/b7coyep2lfp31.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=13b079f1149378af1c3dd8df983e1ca8364cb296 Last Week:
Early Games (1pm) Carolina @ Houston (-4): Well, my recent fuck up is the best place to start. :D Carolina looked like a real football team last week. I don't know yet if it was the QB change, or the fact that they played in a dome against a bottom of the league team, but there will be no more sleeping on Kyle Allen. Let the data collection begin! So far all we have is the game last week, and his start in week 17 last year. With this he is 2-0 and has thrown 6 TDs 0 Ints. Looks pretty good, but we cant just mentally give him Cam's job until we see how he handles adversity in difficult match ups once other teams have more film on him. But, as long as he keeps up a solid game managing TD to INT ratio, his stout pass D and above average running game should give him many opportunities to win in his next few starts. Houston came through for us last week with a road dog money line upset of the Chargers. They had to grind it out with rivers going 5-15 on 3rd downs and throwing 46 times but both sides of the ball did their job. This should turn out to be a good defensive battle. I would look for a lot of Sacks in this game as both teams like to send pressure. As long as their aren't a ton of D/ST scores, this looks to play to the under. ***Interesting note: Panthers DE Bruce Irvin will make his season debut Sunday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury**.** \*** Cleveland @ Baltimore(-7): Our first divisional match up of the day. Both are coming off losses. Cleveland on prime time to an undefeated Rams team and Baltimore to an undefeated Chiefs team. No real injuries to note. These teams seem to have opposite identities at the moment. Cleveland has a pretty decent D, even with some minor injuries, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm. Baltimore has a pretty legit offense, but their D isn't the same as we are used to. I mean, with a Baltimore D of old, this team taking early leads would be unstoppable. But they let Kyler Murray come in and stay within a TD. Personally, I hope Baltimore SMOKEs Cleveland. I want them to take a division lead, get the public against Cleveland. Then watch Cleveland go 1-2 in October with a Loss, Win, Loss. Then they will be 2-5 overall and hopefully we will get GREAT odds on them to win the division. Then they win out the year with a laughable schedule and go 11-5 and 5-1 in the division. That's the plan! :D Washington @ New York Giants (-3): Another divisional match up. This one with probably zero playoff implications. Barring Danny Dimes somehow being the next Mahommes and scoring 30 points a game, I cant see how this game matters to the league this year. Even IF double D scored 30 points a game, the Giants D is bad enough they still might lose those games. Washington is 0-3. They were just obliterated by the Bears on MNF last week. Keenum had like 12 INTs? This is going to be a battle of spirit IMO. The spirit of desperation by the Redskins vs. the new kid on the block in NY playing his first home game as a regular season starter. I like the way DD came out and handled the pressure. He even did it with Barkley going down (now out 4-6 weeks). But I dont like how bad the Giants secondary is. I think there is a better chance of Keenum making up for his performance last week by coming out strong against this Giants D, than there is of DD carrying the team to another win off pure Spirit. But spirit is a powerful thing! If there was no spread, i would have to side with the Giants...but give me 3 points in what I think is an evenly bad match up? It may swing me to the road dog. For now though, I dont see much edge on the spread and will probably just observe. HOWEVER! I did like how DD and Evan Ingram were in sync. Ingram is +200 to get a 100yd game and he is already 2 for 3 this year. Also, the over is getting bet hard so I look for opportunities for him. L.A. Chargers @ Miami(+14.5): Well, well, well. One of my favorite spots in the NFL. A West Coast team traveling to the far East Coast to play a 1pm game. The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Texans last week. The algo predicted it, which was nice for us, but the chargers lead for a good while, so I am sure it was even more stingy of a loss. Now they travel all the way to Miami to play a team with probably the worst 3 game start in NFL history. However. TWO things for me in this game. One: Rozen isn't bad. He played well, but his receivers currently drop more balls than they catch. He gave them a chance to take the lead near the end of the 1st half vs. Dallas. They faded in the second half, but they came out strong. Two: If you followed me last year, you will know I love betting against the west coast team in the first quartehalf when they are traveling east for a 1pm game. Their brains think its 10am and they are just a step slower to start the game. On the chargers side of the ball, Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout. He won't play this game, but is expected to play week 5. Austin Eckler will probably be taking his last shot as a starter for a while. I expect him to run with purpose. He also has the opportunity to do it against a Miami D that, well, I don't think I need to say more. :P Oakland @ Indy(-7): Oakland opened the season strong with a win against Denver but has since suffered back to back crushing losses to playoff teams. Indy is 2-1 but could just as easily be 0-3. Brissett is managing and the Indy D is pretty legit. TY Hilton is doubtful for this game. Darren Waller is just 8 receptions away from beating Antonio Gates for the best 4 game start for a TE in NFL history. This feels like an Indy win, OAK cover type spot but I wouldn't sleep on OAK to get a potential upset. Kansas City @ Detroit(+6.5/7/7.5): Both teams are undefeated with DET blowing an easy game against Arizona to give up a tie. All three of the NJ sites i frequent have a different line. I am finding this game one of the more difficult to judge. My gut instinct says Patty cakes is out there baking cakes. But I can't understand why there is enough favor on the DET side to keep this game from moving up to -8. I mean, so far over 80% of the spread tickets are on KC. Usually that should call for some more balance. But there was a lot of trouble pushing it through the key number of 7 so that has me weary of the spread. My spot for a bet? Travis Kelce has games of 88, 107, and 89 yards recieving this year. His O/U is 82.5 in a game that has a very high points total. I feel like he is almost always good for a 20yrd reception so really I am looking at a number closer to 65. https://preview.redd.it/nox0a2m0lfp31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a2ab47de3fc7a95a5fff6f6f18622ce1e9f1b517 New England @ Buffalo (+7): Dildo Time. Two 3-0 teams face for a KEY Divisional match up. It's safe to say there is a very strong chance both of these teams go 4-0 against the other 2 teams in the division. If Buffalo can steal away an early divisional game, they could really give themselves hope and excitement. Unfortunately for them they are facing the Patriots who's defense has yet to give up a TD against opposing offenses and a Patriots offense that is demolishing teams so far. I know the Bills are 3-0 and I normally loooove home dogs, but I just cant take the points here. To be honest, I can see another dildo game. HUGE expectations on the Bills, Brady comes in a wrecks them, dildos everywhere. Here's a tweet that has me thinking for dildos. https://twitter.com/ChrisBrownBills/status/1177315496183631873?s=20 Tennessee @ Atlanta (-3.5): The final game of the 1pm slate. The Titans are what they have been in previous years. Inconsistent. They opened the season with a fantastic road win against the hyped Browns. Then lost a close Divisional game to the Colts before following that up with another Divisional loss vs. the Mustache. Atlanta has followed the same pattern of inconsistency of wins by getting blown out in their opener and upsetting the Eagles in game 2 and throwing away an opportunity to beat the Colts in week 3 by giving up an early lead and throwing a Key pick that could have given them a shot at a win. There are two things in this game that will have me side with the road dog. One: The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal. Two: The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare since their last game was a Thursday game. Afternoon Games (4pm) Seattle @ Arizona (+5/5.5): Both spreads are available to me, so its just a matter of if I like SEA or AZ. Seattle is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Brees-less Saints and sits at 2-1. Arizona is 0-3. Russel Wilson played spectacularly, but the Saints D/ST won the game for them building an early lead. Seattle tried to battle back and put up a valiant effort but fell short on time. Arizona looked like they could compete in weeks 1 and 2, but in week 3 lost a home game to a win-less team with a backup QB. There are some for sure props to look at in this game IMO. Cardinals are horrible against TEs giving up 131 and TD, 112 and a TD, and 75 and 2TDs. TE Will Dissly receptions and yards have progressed as follows: 1rec-12yds-0tds, 5rec-50yds-2tds, 6rec-62yds-1td. I think he is becoming a key target for Rus this year. They have also been burned by Stafford for 22yds rushing and Jackson for 120 rushing. I like Russ to have many opportunities to get his. Tampa Bay @ LA Rams (-9): The Bucs are 1-2 coming off a disappointing last second missed 34 yard field goal to give DD his first win in his first start. The Rams are 3-0 coming off beating the Browns. I mean TB has a decent pass rush with Barrett, but their secondary is pretty bad, allowing the Giants to come back and win that game. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get rolling on offense. I see them putting up base 27. So the question is, can the Bucs keep up to cover the spread and combined with that, can the Rams hold off garbage time points? Minnesota @ Chicago (-1.5): A HUGE divisional game with both teams needing the win having lost to Green Bay already. Minn is coming off a home game whooping of the Raiders while the Bears are coming off a road win whooping of the Redskins. Both teams have top ranked Ds and meh Os with the edge going to the Bears and the Vikings, respectively. I feel like this is going to be a heavy defensive game. Cook should finally be held under 100 yards rushing. Jacksonville @ Denver(-2.5/3): Jacksonville is coming off a win and some extra rest. Denver is still waiting for its first sack, and its first win. On the flip side, Jacksonville recorded NINE sacks last week. This game looks like it is shaping up to be just like the Jax/Hou game. Low scoring. This game might be a candidate to tease Jax up and the Under. As for props, DJ Chark has a TD in every game this season. If he gets one in Denver, he breaks the franchise record. Even thought its predicted a very low scoring game, I like that he is getting 2.6 to 1 to do so! Night Game(8:20pm) Dallas @ New Orleans(+2.5,3): This is one of the hardest games for me. The Cowboys are 3-0 and looking good. But they did it against mediocre competition. The saints are Brees-less but are coming off a great D/ST performance and a game managed win for Bridgewater. Though the Saints have complained about bad calls a decent amount and they are the Third most penalized team this year so far, they do have a favorable crew tonight. "The crew working Sunday's game is led by official Carl Cheffers. Cheffers has been a crew chief since 2008, and, according to Payton, has worked 13 Saints games since 2006. The Saints record over that time with this crew: 12-1. " My gut tells me, if Brees didn't get hurt and the Saints entered this game 3-0 with Brees, the spread would be somewhere between Saints -3 and Saints -6.5. Is Brees going down worth a 6-9 point shift? Probably not. Given Bridgewater has a decent record and he's not the only QB for the Saints. Honestly, how is the over getting so much action?! Both teams have legit Defenses. These two played last year with Brees and it was a heavy under hit. That game Kamara and Ingram got nowhere and Dak and Dallas could throw the ball but they had trouble converting in the Red Zone. If a similar game script happens I could see Dallas having the edge this time given they have an added red zone threat in Jason Witton, and the Saints are without Brees. If you're going to bet this game, definitely shop for your number! Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u]
Parlays: 0-0 [0u] \**I recently received a 10u free bet on Draftkings NJ. All of these parlays are free bets****
Teasers: 2-2 [-1u ]
Thanks for reading. Good Luck to everyone! :D |
2019.08.22 21:30 JTMONEY8423 13U 10th Street Cardinals vs Louisville Colts 2019
 | submitted by JTMONEY8423 to u/JTMONEY8423 [link] [comments] |