How to adjust a tecumseh governor

Live Free or Die

2010.03.30 05:23 capistor Live Free or Die

For Granite Staters and all things New Hampshire
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2019.03.07 00:02 CandyFTW Modes & Routines (formerly Bixby Routines)

Welcome to our community of Modes & Routines with Routines +! Feel free to post and comment on your routines, suggestions, queries etc. Modes & Routines is a service for automatically changing your device features and settings according to the time and place and also recommends useful features. Routines + adds advanced features to Modes & Routines so you can make more powerful routines. You don't have to manually change your settings each time and it can simplify your common tasks.
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2011.12.31 03:53 DaveQat A Subreddit About a Card Game for Horrible People.

Cards Against Humanity is the Apples to Apples for horrible people. Come share your depraved card combinations and additions to the game.
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2024.05.19 08:50 Ok_Jelly_3340 Knoxville Needs Change: Higher Wages and Affordable Housing Now

Facts:

Rising Rents in Knoxville

Recent Home Price Increases in Knoxville

This information highlights the growing affordability issues in Knoxville, with home prices rising faster than incomes, making it challenging for many residents to purchase homes.

Steps to Raise the Minimum Wage

Step 1: Organize a Petition Drive
Draft Petition:
Petition for Increasing the Minimum Wage in Tennessee
To the Tennessee General Assembly:
We, the undersigned residents of Tennessee, believe that the current minimum wage of $7.25 per hour is insufficient to meet the basic needs of individuals and families in our state. Given the significant rise in living costs and inflation since the last adjustment in 2009, we urgently call for an increase in the state minimum wage to a livable wage of $13.25 per hour. This adjustment will ensure that all working Tennesseans can afford necessities such as housing, food, healthcare, and transportation.
By signing this petition, we express our support for this necessary change and urge the Tennessee General Assembly to take immediate action.
Name Address Signature
Step 2: Collect Signatures
Step 3: Raise Awareness
Step 4: Submit the Petition

Deadlines and Requirements

How Petitions Work

In general, for a petition to be effective and get an issue on the ballot or to influence local government action, more signatures are usually needed to demonstrate widespread community support. Here’s a brief overview of the process:
Example Scenario:

Strategies to Address Rising Rents

While controlling rent increases directly can be challenging, there are several strategies that can help stabilize the rental market and provide more affordable options:
  1. Rent Control and Stabilization:
    • Implement policies that limit how much rents can be increased annually.
  2. Increased Tenant Protections:
    • Strengthen tenant rights to provide more security and stability, such as "just cause" eviction protections.
  3. Affordable Housing Development:
    • Increase the supply of affordable housing through new developments and mixed-income housing projects.
  4. Tax Incentives for Landlords:
    • Offer tax breaks or incentives to landlords who keep rents affordable.
  5. Community Land Trusts:
    • Establish community land trusts to manage and develop affordable housing.
  6. Rent Subsidy Programs:
    • Expand rent subsidy programs to assist low-income tenants.

Petition Example for Rent Control and Tenant Protections

Petition for Rent Control and Tenant Protections
To the Knoxville City Council:
We, the undersigned, request that the Knoxville City Council take immediate action to address the rising cost of rent and protect tenants by implementing rent control measures and strengthening tenant protections. Specifically, we propose the following initiatives:
  1. Rent Control: Implement rent control measures that limit annual rent increases to no more than a set percentage, tied to inflation.
  2. Just Cause Eviction Protections: Establish "just cause" eviction protections to prevent arbitrary evictions and provide stability for tenants.
  3. Tax Incentives for Affordable Rent: Offer tax breaks or incentives to landlords who commit to keeping rents affordable.
  4. Encourage Long-Term Leases: Promote the use of long-term leases with fixed rent increases to provide stability for both tenants and landlords.
By implementing these measures, Knoxville can help ensure that housing remains affordable and accessible for all residents, promoting a stable and thriving community.
By signing this petition, we express our support for these initiatives and urge the Knoxville City Council to take immediate action to protect tenants and address the rising cost of rent.
Signature: _______________
Print Name: _______________
Address: _______________
Email: _______________

Other Strategies to Help Afford Homes

Local Level:
  1. Affordable Housing Programs: Support and expand local programs that provide affordable housing options.
  2. Down Payment Assistance: Advocate for city or county programs that help with down payments for first-time homebuyers.
  3. Community Land Trusts: Promote local models where the community owns the land and leases it to homeowners, reducing the cost of purchasing a home.
  4. Zoning Reforms: Push for zoning changes within Knoxville to allow for more diverse and affordable housing developments.
  5. Financial Education: Provide resources locally to help individuals better manage their finances and improve their credit scores.
  6. Rent-to-Own Programs: Implement or support local programs where tenants can rent properties with the option to buy after a certain period.
  7. Increased Housing Supply: Encourage the construction of more housing units in Knoxville to meet demand.
  8. Public-Private Partnerships: Foster collaborations between the city and private developers to create affordable housing projects.
  9. Inclusionary Zoning: Require a portion of new developments in Knoxville to include affordable housing units.
  10. Tax Incentives: Offer local tax credits or abatements to developers who build affordable housing or to homeowners for property improvements.
  11. Tiny Homes and ADUs: Promote the development of tiny homes and accessory dwelling units (ADUs) in Knoxville as affordable housing options.
  12. Housing Cooperatives: Support cooperative housing models locally where residents collectively own and manage their housing.
  13. Employer-Assisted Housing: Encourage local employers to provide housing assistance or benefits to their employees.
  14. Energy Efficiency Programs: Implement local programs to improve the energy efficiency of homes, reducing utility costs and overall housing expenses.
  15. Foreclosure Prevention Programs: Provide local assistance and counseling to homeowners at risk of foreclosure to help them retain their homes.
  16. Land Banks: Establish land banks at the city level to acquire, manage, and repurpose vacant and foreclosed properties for affordable housing development.
Steps for Local Action:

Example Petitions:

Petition for Comprehensive Affordable Housing Initiatives
To the Knoxville City Council:
We, the undersigned, request that the Knoxville City Council take comprehensive action to promote affordable housing through a combination of tax incentives, public-private partnerships, inclusionary zoning, expanded affordable housing programs, and the establishment of land banks.
  1. Tax Incentives: Offer local tax credits or abatements to developers who build affordable housing or to homeowners for property improvements. These incentives will encourage the development and maintenance of affordable housing units, ensuring more options are available for low- and moderate-income families.
  2. Public-Private Partnerships: Foster collaborations between the city and private developers to create affordable housing projects. By working together, the public and private sectors can pool resources, expertise, and funding to develop housing that meets the community's needs.
  3. Inclusionary Zoning: Require a portion of new developments in Knoxville to include affordable housing units. Inclusionary zoning ensures that affordable housing is integrated into new developments, promoting economic diversity and increasing the availability of affordable homes.
  4. Affordable Housing Programs: Support and expand local affordable housing programs to provide quality, affordable housing options for low- and moderate-income residents. Currently, many residents are struggling to find affordable housing, which impacts their quality of life and financial stability. By expanding these programs, we can ensure that more residents have access to safe, decent, and affordable housing.
  5. Land Banks: Establish land banks at the city level to acquire, manage, and repurpose vacant and foreclosed properties for affordable housing development. Land banks can transform unused or abandoned properties into valuable assets for the community, providing opportunities for affordable housing development and revitalizing neighborhoods.
By implementing these strategies, Knoxville can create a more inclusive and sustainable housing market that supports the needs of all residents. This comprehensive approach will help address the current housing shortage and ensure long-term affordability in our community.
By signing this petition, we express our support for these initiatives and urge the Knoxville City Council to take immediate action to promote affordable housing through these measures.
Signature: _______________
Print Name: _______________
Address: _______________
Email: _______________
Down Payment Assistance
Petition for Down Payment Assistance Programs
To the Knoxville City Council:
We, the undersigned, urge the Knoxville City Council to advocate for and establish city or county programs that provide down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers. Many residents find it challenging to save enough for a down payment, which is a significant barrier to achieving homeownership. By providing down payment assistance, we can help more residents transition from renting to owning their homes, promoting long-term financial stability and investment in our community.
By signing this petition, we express our support for the creation and implementation of down payment assistance programs to help first-time homebuyers in Knoxville.
Signature: _______________
Print Name: _______________
Address: _______________
Email: _______________

State or Federal Level:

Combining these approaches with efforts to raise wages can create a more comprehensive solution to housing affordability issues.

How New Jersey Did It:

Tennessee's Business Environment and Minimum Wage:

Steps to Take:

By focusing on education and nonpartisan advocacy, it's possible to create a more inclusive conversation around raising the minimum wage.
submitted by Ok_Jelly_3340 to Knoxville [link] [comments]

2024.05.18 20:41 fezertcammo Kawasaki FD 671d John Deere X700 Governor Adjustment, High Altitude

How it all started: I bought a used John Deere mower with about 500hrs. It was in great shape, but I decided to do a baseline tune up because I didn’t know what the previous owner had done. I did the usual fluids, air cleaner, etc. No valve adjustment, or anything invasive. The carb looked dirty, so I got the bright idea to take it off (bad idea). John Deere and Kawasaki have made this VERY difficult to do! The problem was, I hit a point of no return and had to get it off. This led to a spiral of bad decisions, including loosening the bolt on the governor control arm so that I could remove the linkage from the carburetor. I didn’t think there would be an issue because of the alignment tabs. WRONG! I was never able to get it back to normal. Even though I didn’t touch a single adjustment screw, the idle was way off, too low. I messed around with it through the winter, but it seemed like it ran at different speeds every time I started it. The governor is out of whack.
Here’s where I make things worse. I found the manual and read through the governor adjustment procedure. In that section, it talks about high altitude adjustment. I live at 7000 ft, which is much higher than where I bought the mower. I figured that if I was going to have to re-adjust the governor, I might as well buy the high altitude jets and install them before I mess with all the adjustments. I pulled the carb back off, and installed the jets and followed the governor adjustment and idle speed.
I had it running perfect. 1450 RPM ungoverned, 1550 on Governor at idle. Max rpm was about 3480 to 3500. It ran great, I used it to mow one time without any issue.
Two days later, I fire up the mower to pull a drag and the RPM is very low, close to 1100RPM. The engine won’t rev and when I reduce the throttle, the engine backfires badly. What the heck? The next day I start the engine again, and it’s running better but not perfect.
My biggest question is, why does the engine run differently every time it starts?
Thanks
submitted by fezertcammo to smallenginerepair [link] [comments]

2024.05.18 18:14 MrRaven101 Orion 3 (2018) from Moon, Mars and Beyond

2017 came and went with no notable missions. It was a busy year for NASA on the ground, however. New contracts and buildings, the re-election of Obama, and the announcement that the ISS would be retired in 2028. After many a few appeals to congress, NASA gained continued funding for both Orion and a future joint space station with the ESA and JAXA. Boeing’s Starliner was delayed into 2019, and the Crew Dragon would not be ready until 2020. So it was that Orion 3 would be the biggest mission of 2018. And it was no wonder why. Humanity would be returning to the Moon for the first time since Apollo 17, and NASA was ready to promote it.
The mission was a cultural milestone in itself – it was the first time NASA would stream an Orion mission in its entirety online, and it became popular for large internet celebrities and news hosts to talk about the upcoming mission. They would be paid, of course. For the first few steps, whoever would take them, a combined audience of ~1,000,000,000 would be watching them.
Astronaut selection was tricky. NASA needed to choose a crew that had experience, but were limited in that not many of their astronauts were both experienced flight-ready. Most of NASA Astronaut Group 19 were retired (or about to), but one stuck out to the Astronaut Office: Christopher Cassidy. Much like Wiseman, he was a former Chief of the Astronaut Office, and had two flights under his belt, both Shuttle and Soyuz. He would be assigned as Mission Commander. Another that stuck out was James Dutton. He was a pilot aboard the Shuttle, and endeared to the former shuttle personnel and many NASA employees. He was selected as pilot. Robert S. Kimbrough, another Shuttle astronaut, was selected as flight engineer. Jack D. Fischer was selected as payload specialist for the mission, rounding out the crew with three NASA Astronaut Group 19 astronauts and one NASA Astronaut Group 20 member.
During training, ideas for callsigns were thrown around. NASA wanted something symbolic of their progress and the future, politics would drive them to name it something patriotic, while the public would be largely indifferent. Except a minority: the Star Trek fans. Much like with the Space Shuttle of late, they had campaigned for Orion to be named after the USS Enterprise. In the end, it would be left up to the crew to decide the names. And you can likely guess what they chose. So it was the Orion capsule for this mission would be named Enterprise, and the Altair to be named Polaris. After a long eight months of training, production, processing, paperwork, calculations and other assorted work, the mission was ready. The Ares I was rolled out to the pad, with it Polaris, and the booster launched half past three in April 2018.
But the successful launch of Polaris coincided with the news of the contracting of the Space Exploration Vehicle (SEV), to none other than JAXA. It would be complete by around 2022, meaning that it would be utilized on a mission no earlier than Orion 6. In exchange for this, a seat on Orion 4 was given. The SEV would be landed by a separate Altair lander. Contracting for the non pressurized Lunar Roving Vehicle (LRV) also fell to JAXA, this time being light enough to be unfolded from one of Altair’s cargo quadrants in its descent stage. The LRV, which had the majority of its work done, would be ready by 2020. This meant it would fly on Orion 4.
As Polaris orbited, Enterprise was rolled out to the pad. Much like Orion 2, there would be a large crowd to view the launch. Present was former President John McCain, Vice President Joe Biden, Chief of Staff Dennis McDonough, Apollo 11 astronaut Buzz Aldrin, three cabinet members, 30 mayors, 21 governors, 55 ambassadors, and 350 congressmen. A viewing public of almost 150,000 and 2,000 media representatives and personalities also attended.
After final check ups on Polaris, a go-ahead signal was given from Houston. Five minutes later, the launch countdown began. Liftoff began at 2:33 PM EST May 12, 2018. Three minutes into the flight, Kimbrough’s vitals flatlined. After a short panic from the flight surgeon, Kimbrough reported back that the sensors had failed. The fault was recorded, and the flight continued. By 2:41, Enterprise had entered its parking orbit.
For about an hour the systems were monitored, checked, and checked again. Polaris and Enterprise showed nominal performance, and procedure for relighting the EUS’s engines began.
After a short burn, Enterprise began its approach towards Polaris. After its approach, Enterprise circled her lander to check for damage or any potential issues. After this, Dutton maneuvered and docked with Polaris. Cassidy and Fischer opened Polaris’s main hatchway and conducted an inspection of the systems. After a short meal, the EUS fired its last burn to put Enterprise and Polaris in a Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI). The next three days were mostly monitoring systems and conducting small course adjustments with the RCS thrusters. On May 15, Enterprise fired up its engines to insert both it and Polaris into lunar orbit.
The selected landing site was Oceanus Procellarum, a few miles off of the Apollo 12 site. Oceanus Procellarum was chosen for its relative flatness, as well as to more thoroughly inspect the region. Apollo 12 didn’t cover all bases, so Orion 3 hoped to refine the data on the site and see how the new systems reacted.
The crew were allowed to sleep, and on May 16 orbital operations began. A small telescope was installed on Enterprise to conduct surface observations. The telescope was nowhere near powerful enough to see Polaris when it landed, but it could help scope out the area. Cassidy and Kimbrough were selected for landing on the Moon, and they spent their time in orbit powering the systems and adjusting to the lander interior. May 16 also included one of the most important experiments on the mission: sunflower bulbs were carried on board, with a small amount of dirt.
This was carried in a special compartment on board Altair, but the dirt and bulb itself were carried on Enterprise. The experiment, creatively titled the Lunar Bulb Germination Experiment (LBGE), would germinate the sunflower bulbs on the lunar surface, and note any differences.
Other experiments on the mission were the Altair Specialized Experiments Package (ASEP), which included experiments ranging from solar wind to passive and active seismology. A third and equally important experiment was the Lunar Deployable Payload Module (LDPM), which would simulate the deployment of the LRV for Orion 4. These experiments were stored in the side panels of Polaris, which could be pulled down for access.
It was a lot for the first mission, but both Mission Control and the crew were prepared and confident. Overall, this experiment package would consume the majority of the seven EVAs for the astronauts. The remaining time was spent collecting samples and resting.
The landing was scheduled for around 7:00 PM EST that day. Cassidy and Kimbrough entered Polaris and gave a salute to Fischer, and sealed off from Enterprise and undocked. After clearing a distance, the deorbit burn began. Minutes later, and under almost a billion viewers’ scrutiny, Polaris touched down. The first EVA would follow a few minutes later. Cassidy stepped into the airlock, depressurized, and looked out upon the lunar surface. Viewing peaked around this time, much to NASA’s Public Relations Offices’ delight. Cassidy descended the ladder down to the lunar surface, and stepped onto the lunar surface.
“With these steps, we begin anew the exploration of our nearest neighbor, in peace and with hope for all mankind.” The immortal words by Cassidy. He looked around the surface, and waited for Kimbrough to descend. Kimbrough’s words were not as majestic - “Looks just like White Sands.” After some remarks and looking around, the two received a call from none other than President Obama, who congratulated them on the mission. Work began shortly after.
First was the deployment of the American Flag on the lunar surface. Then was the deployment of the ASEP. First was the RTG, which would power the experiments. The command station was set up with the Ion and Passive Seismometer a few feet away. After the rest were set up, the Active Seismic Experiment (ASE) began. It was a simple thumper-geophone combination, and had good results. After the experiments were tested, the crew returned to Polaris and had their rest period.
May 17 began with freeze-dried breakfast and the second EVA. This EVA would set up the Radio Antenna Stand Test Article (RASTA). RASTA was a tripod stand with a small suite of communication instruments and a dummy satellite dish. RASTA would aid the development of the Farside Radio Observing Scanning Telescopes (FROST) for Orion 5. After this was another round certifying the ASEP was functional, sample collection began. The remainder of Day 2 was checking systems and deploying the more time-consuming ASEP systems. The Solar Wind Experiment (a large sheet on a tall pole) was also set up. In orbit, Dutton fired Enterprise’s engines, altering the orbit just enough to align the capsule for docking once Polaris lifted off. Fischer did surface observations, and took many photos of the lunar far side. The last activity for Day 2 was unpacking a small retroreflector, which was placed not far off.
Day 3 would be more sample collecting and exploring the landing site. Near the site was a shallow crater about fifteen meters across. Cassidy descended the crater wall, which Houston considered a risky move. After gaining his footing, he picked up a few soil and rock samples before climbing out. It became evident this move on Cassidy’s part was worth the risk, as the samples collected would help expand knowledge and study on lunar asteroid impacts. After this Cassidy and Kimbrough returned to Polaris to store the sample bags and process data. After a routine checkup on LBGE, the crew called it a day.
Day 4 meant the deployment of the LDPM. After wrangling the pulley on the panel, Kimbrough removed the panel and, with help from Cassidy, pulled the pallet out. The pallet itself was ten feet long, but had two hinges at the front and back allowing the pallet to fit into the cargo quadrant. They detached the pallet from Polaris and tested some of the batteries and affixed parts onto it (such as the antenna and seats). Most of these parts were non-functional, and this activity was mostly a practice exercise for Orion 4. The remainder of the day was spent inside Polaris, processing and transmitting the data for NASA to work with. Kimbrough, the mission specialist, was trained with a small degree of knowledge on geology and biology. While nowhere near certified, his work with the LGBE and sample collection were invaluable.
Days 5 and 6 were like the rest: checking ASEP systems, strolling around the lander, picking up samples, and processing data. Day 6 was special, because Cassidy and Kimbrough held a live interview for major news networks. In the meantime, Fischer and Dutton conducted gamma ray and x-ray observations, surface and stellar photography, and small particle spectrometer and mass spectrometer sensing. With the research being done by Enterprise, new images could be compared with old to note and new impacts or differences. Day 7 was the last day on the Moon, and that meant one thing: packing up. Experiments and data were packed up, samples were moved into their respective locations on board Polaris, and assorted cargo were taken aboard. The SWE had its net removed and placed in storage, and the ASEP was put into “Long-Duration Mode”.
Polaris lifted off the surface of the Moon on May 23, 2018, returning to Enterprise in orbit. Polaris’s ascent stage was jettisoned, and Enterprise’s engines were lighted to send it back to Earth. After a three-day coast, Enterprise and her crew reentered and splashed down off the coast of Hawai’i at 12:24 on May 26, 2018.
Orion 3 was a record-setting mission. The fourteen-day mission logged 120 minutes of EVA time, well above any mission on Project Apollo. Time, sample and other assorted records were all shattered. The data collected could be processed for decades of research and development, and the data on the Altair lander and Orion capsule would aid in the development of their respective Block II counterparts. The mission was also a large PR boost for the program, ensuring funding for FY2019 and beyond. After all, the election cycle for the Democrat Party was only two years away and the announcement of Orion’s cancellation wouldn’t help their political base, which was slowly falling to the GOP, nonetheless after six years of the Obama administration. Orion missions up to Orion 15 were promised funding by congress, with a hopeful return on investment in international cooperation and research by 2025. This put political pressure on NASA to include more international partners in the program, much to both JAXA and the ESA’s delight. Seats for JAXA and ESA astronauts opened up for Orion 4, 5 and 7. The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) would push for one of their astronauts on an Orion flight. Because of the current seat conflict, NASA responded with a resounding ‘Maybe.’
submitted by MrRaven101 to HighEffortAltHistory [link] [comments]

2024.05.17 01:14 SanderSo47 Part 2

As Reddit doesn't allow posts to exceed 40,000 characters, Eastwood's edition had to be split into two parts because his whole career cannot be ignored. The first part was posted yesterday.

Million Dollar Baby (2004)¨

"Beyond his silence, there is a past. Beyond her dreams, there is a feeling. Beyond hope, there is a memory. Beyond their journey, there is a love."
His 25th film. Based on stories from the 2000 collection Rope Burns: Stories from the Corner by F.X. Toole, it stars Eastwood, Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman. The film follows Margaret "Maggie" Fitzgerald, an underdog amateur boxer who is helped by an underappreciated boxing trainer to achieve her dream of becoming a professional.
Paul Haggis wrote the script on spec, and it took four years to sell it. The film was stuck in development hell for years before it was shot. Several studios rejected the project even when Eastwood signed on as actor and director. Even Warner Bros., Eastwood's longtime home base, would not agree to a $30 million budget. Eastwood persuaded Lakeshore Entertainment's Tom Rosenberg to put up half the budget (as well as handle foreign distribution), with Warner Bros. contributing the rest.
The film had an incredible run in limited release, breaking many records for Eastwood's career. It eventually earned a fantastic $216 million worldwide, becoming his highest grossing film ever. It received critical acclaim, and it was named as one of his greatest films. It won four Oscars: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (for Swank), and Best Supporting Actor (for Freeman). Eastwood became one of the very few directors to make two films to win both Best Picture and Best Director.

Flags of Our Fathers (2006)

"A single shot can end the war."
His 26th film. Based on the book written by James Bradley and Ron Powers, it stars Ryan Phillippe, Jesse Bradford, Adam Beach, John Benjamin Hickey, John Slattery, Paul Walker, Jamie Bell, Barry Pepper, Robert Patrick and Neal McDonough. The film follows the 1945 Battle of Iwo Jima, the five Marines and one Navy corpsman who were involved in raising the flag on Iwo Jima, and the after effects of that event on their lives.
The film received positive reviews, but it bombed at the box office with just $65 million against its huge $90 million budget.

Letters from Iwo Jima (2006)

"The completion of the Iwo Jima saga."
His 27th film. Based on Picture Letters from Commander in Chief by Tadamichi Kuribayashi, it stars Ken Watanabe, Kazunari Ninomiya, Tsuyoshi Ihara, Ryō Kase and Shidō Nakamura. It's a companion film to Flags of Our Fathers, and portrays the Battle of Iwo Jima from the perspective of the Japanese soldiers.
In the process of reading about the Japanese perspective of the war for Flags of Our Fathers, in particular General Tadamichi Kuribayashi, Eastwood decided to film a companion piece with this film, which was shot entirely in Japanese. The film was shot back-to-back, starting filming just one month after Flags of Our Fathers wrapped filming.
Despite being seen as the least accessible of both films, this film was much more successful at the box office than the previous film (including a colossal $42 million in Japan alone). It also received critical acclaim, particularly for how it handed the depiction of good and evil from both sides. It received 4 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director.

Changeling (2008)

"To find her son, she did what no one else dared."
His 28th film. It stars Angelina Jolie and John Malkovich, and is based on real-life events, specifically the 1928 Wineville Chicken Coop murders in Mira Loma, California. It follows a woman united with a boy who she realizes is not her missing son. When she tries to demonstrate that to the police and city authorities, she is vilified as delusional, labeled as an unfit mother and confined to a psychiatric ward.
The film earned $113 million worldwide, barely breaking even at the box office. The film received mixed reviews, but Jolie received praise for her performance. She was nominated for the Oscar for Best Actress.

Gran Torino (2008)

"Ever come across somebody you shouldn't have messed with?"
His 29th film. It stars Eastwood, and follows Walt Kowalski, a recently widowed Korean War veteran alienated from his family and angry at the world, whose young neighbor, Thao Vang Lor, is pressured by his cousin into stealing Walt's prized Ford Torino for his initiation into a gang. Walt thwarts the theft and subsequently develops a relationship with the boy and his family.
The film received great reviews, as well as praise from the Hmong community. It ended up becoming a sleeper hit, and it earned $270 million worldwide, becoming his highest grossing film.

Invictus (2009)

"His people needed a leader. He gave them a champion."
His 30th film. It stars Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon. Following the aftermath of the apartheid, President Nelson Mandela decides to unite his people by supporting a rugby team in their bid to win the 1995 Rugby World Cup.
The film earned $122 million worldwide, barely breaking even. It received positive reviews, and Freeman and Damon received Oscar nominations for their performances.

Hereafter (2010)

"Touched by death. Changed by life."
His 31st film. It stars Matt Damon, Cécile de France, Bryce Dallas Howard, Lyndsey Marshal, Jay Mohr and Thierry Neuvic. An American with a special connection to the afterlife, a woman with a near-death experience and a young English boy, who lost his loved ones, cross paths in an effort to find closure in their lives.
Despite mixed reviews, it managed to earn $107 million, turning a small profit.

J. Edgar (2011)

"The most powerful man in the world."
His 32nd film. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Armie Hammer, Naomi Watts, Josh Lucas, and Judi Dench, and follows the career of FBI director J. Edgar Hoover, focusing on Hoover's life from the 1919 Palmer Raids onward.
The film received mixed reviews; while DiCaprio received praise, the technical aspects of the film were criticized. It earned $84 million, making it a box office success, but far below what DiCaprio usually makes at the box office.

Jersey Boys (2014)

"Everybody remembers it how they need to."
His 33rd film. Base on the 2004 jukebox musical, it stars John Lloyd Young, Erich Bergen, Michael Lomenda, Vincent Piazza and Christopher Walken, and tells the story of the musical group The Four Seasons.
It received mixed reviews, with praise for the musical numbers but criticism for the narrative and runtime, and failed at the box office.

American Sniper (2014)

"The most lethal sniper in U.S. history."
His 34th film. It is based on the memoir by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwen and Jim DeFelice, and stars Bradley Cooper and Sienna Miller. The film follows the life of Kyle, who became the deadliest marksman in U.S. military history with 255 kills from four tours in the Iraq War, 160 of which were officially confirmed by the Department of Defense. While Kyle was celebrated for his military successes, his tours of duty took a heavy toll on his personal and family life.
In 2012, Cooper and Warner Bros. bought the rights to the memoir. Cooper wanted Chris Pratt to star as Kyle, but WB told him they would only greenlight the film if he stars in it. After Kyle's murder in 2013, Steven Spielberg signed to direct. Spielberg had read Kyle's book, though he desired to have a more psychological conflict present in the screenplay so an "enemy sniper" character could serve as the insurgent sharpshooter who was trying to track down and kill Kyle. Spielberg's ideas contributed to the development of a lengthy screenplay approaching 160 pages. Due to Warner Bros.' budget constraints, Spielberg felt he could not bring his vision of the story to the screen. So Eastwood was brought in to direct.
The film attained a solid, but not extraordinary response from critics. It also attracted some controversy over its portrayal of both the Iraq War and Kyle himself.
The box office though?
To say that the film had a fantastic run would be selling it short.
It opened on Christmas Day in 4 theaters, and it earned a huge $633,456 ($158,364 PTA). But the following weekend, it actually increased despite playing at the same amount of theaters, adding $676,909. That translated to a $169,227 PTA, becoming the highest second weekend PTA in history for a live-action film. And on its third weekend, it earned $579,518 ($144,879 PTA), becoming the first film to have three weekends above $100,000 PTA. In the 22 days it played in just 4 theaters, it earned $3,424,778.
On its first wide weekend, the film shook the industry by opening with a colossal $89 million. That was almost as much as the other 2014 blockbusters, and given that the film didn't have 3D pricing, it's very likely it sold far more tickets than them. It broke the January opening weekend record by twice as much, and the second biggest for an R-rated title. With insane word of mouth ("A+" on CinemaScore), this film had the legs. In less than one week, it became Eastwood's highest grossing film domestically. On its second weekend, it dropped just 28% and made $64 million, which was the biggest second weekend for an R-rated film (a record it still maintains) and crossed $200 million domestically. And by March, the film overtook The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 ($334 million) as the highest grossing 2014 film in North America.
After an insane run in theaters, it closed with a gigantic $350 million domestically, which made it the second highest grossing R-rated film in North America. Overseas, it was also very strong, and it made a huge $547 million worldwide. It was easily Eastwood's highest grossing film, even adjusted for inflation. One of the greatest box office runs in recent memory. It received six Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actor for Cooper, ultimately winning one for Best Sound Editing.
The biggest surprise of the 2010s? Perhaps. Cause let's face it, when 2014, did any of you had this as the top film of the year? Or even in the Top 20? Please.

Sully (2016)

"The untold story behind the miracle on the Hudson."
His 35th film. Based on the autobiography Highest Duty by Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger and Jeffrey Skiles, it stars Tom Hanks, Aaron Eckhart, Laura Linney, Anna Gunn, Autumn Reeser, Holt McCallany, and Jamey Sheridan. The film follows Sullenberger's 2009 emergency landing of US Airways Flight 1549 on the Hudson River, in which all 155 passengers and crew survived and the subsequent publicity and investigation.
The film received strong reviews, and earned over $240 million worldwide, becoming one of his highest grossing films.

The 15:17 to Paris (2018)

"The real heroes."
His 36th film. Based on the autobiography by Jeffrey E. Stern, Spencer Stone, Anthony Sadler, and Alek Skarlatos, it stars Stone, Sadler, and Skarlatos as themselves and follows the trio through life leading up to and including their stopping of the 2015 Thalys train attack.
Despite choosing Kyle Gallner, Jeremie Harris and Alexander Ludwig as the leads, Eastwood decided to cast the heroes to play themselves, which was met with confusion as they lacked acting experience. And that was reflected on the final film; it received negative reviews for its acting, and it bombed at the box office.

The Mule (2018)

"Nobody runs forever."
His 37th film. Based on the 2014 The New York Times article The Sinaloa Cartel's 90-Year-Old Drug Mule by Sam Dolnick, it stars Eastwood, Bradley Cooper, Laurence Fishburne, Michael Peña, Dianne Wiest, and Andy García. Due to financial issues, horticulturist Earl Stone becomes a courier for a drug cartel. Slowly, he grows closer to his estranged family, but his illegal activities threaten much more than his life.
It received good reviews (although some questioned its story and tone), and earned over $173 million worldwide.

Richard Jewell (2019)

"The world will know his name and the truth."
His 38th film. The film stars Paul Walter Hauser, Sam Rockwell, Kathy Bates, Jon Hamm, and Olivia Wilde. The film depicts the July 27 Centennial Olympic Park bombing and its aftermath, as security guard Richard Jewell finds a bomb during the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, Georgia, and alerts authorities to evacuate, only to later be wrongly accused of having placed the device himself.
The film received positive reviews, but several journalists criticized the critical portrayal of the reporter that first accused Jewell: Kathy Scruggs (specifically for trading sex for stories). The film marked another commercial failure for Eastwood.

Cry Macho (2021)

"A story of being lost and found."
His 39th film. Based on the novel by N. Richard Nash, it stars Eastwood and Dwight Yoakam. Set in 1979, it follows a former rodeo star hired to reunite a young boy in Mexico with his father in the United States.
Nash tried to get this film made all the way since 1970s, but no studio was willing to pick it up. He restructured his films as a novel, was successful and studios were now interested. There were a few candidates for the leading role; Robert Mitchum, Roy Scheider, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Eastwood himself. Arnie was willing to star in the film back in 2003, but put it on hold when he was elected Governor. He was set to star after leaving office, but the project was scrapped after his affair scandal was made known. In 2020, Eastwood signed to return.
The film received mixed reviews, particularly for its writing and acting. It was also a huge flop at the box office, and marked Eastwood's least attended film as leading man. David Zaslav criticized the studio's decision to finance the film. Warner executives allegedly said that although they knew the film was unlikely to turn a profit, they felt indebted to Eastwood for his decades-long relationship with the studio and his consistent ability to deliver films under budget and on time.

The Future

He recently wrapped post-production on his 40th film, Juror No. 2. It stars Nicholas Hoult, Toni Collette, Zoey Deutch, Leslie Bibb, Chris Messina, J. K. Simmons and Kiefer Sutherland, and follows a juror serving on a murder trial who realizes he may be at fault for the victim's death.

MOVIES (FROM HIGHEST GROSSING TO LEAST GROSSING)

No. Movie Year Studio Domestic Total Overseas Total Worldwide Total Budget
1 American Sniper 2014 Warner Bros. $350,159,020 $197,500,000 $547,659,020 $59M
2 Gran Torino 2008 Warner Bros. $148,095,302 $121,862,926 $269,958,228 $25M
3 Sully 2016 Warner Bros. $125,070,033 $118,800,000 $243,870,033 $60M
4 Million Dollar Baby 2004 Warner Bros. $100,492,203 $116,271,443 $216,763,646 $30M
5 The Bridges of Madison County 1995 Warner Bros. $71,516,617 $110,500,000 $182,016,617 $22M
6 The Mule 2018 Warner Bros. $103,804,407 $71,000,000 $174,804,407 $50M
7 Unforgiven 1992 Warner Bros. $101,167,799 $58,000,000 $159,167,799 $14.4M
8 Mystic River 2003 Warner Bros. $90,135,191 $66,460,000 $156,595,191 $25M
9 Sudden Impact 1983 Warner Bros. $67,642,693 $83,000,000 $150,642,693 $22M
10 A Perfect World 1993 Warner Bros. $31,130,999 $104,000,000 $135,130,999 $30M
11 Space Cowboys 2000 Warner Bros. $90,464,773 $38,419,359 $128,884,132 $60M
12 Invictus 2009 Warner Bros. $37,491,364 $84,935,428 $122,426,792 $55M
13 Heartbreak Ridge 1986 Warner Bros. $42,724,017 $78,975,983 $121,700,000 $15M
14 Changeling 2008 Universal $35,739,802 $77,658,435 $113,398,237 $55M
15 Hereafter 2010 Warner Bros. $32,746,941 $74,209,389 $106,956,330 $50M
16 Absolute Power 1997 Sony $50,068,310 $42,700,000 $92,768,310 $50M
17 J. Edgar 2011 Warner Bros. $37,306,030 $47,614,509 $84,920,539 $35M
18 Letters from Iwo Jima 2006 Warner Bros. $13,756,082 $54,917,146 $68,673,228 $19M
19 Jersey Boys 2014 Warner Bros. $47,047,013 $20,600,000 $67,647,013 $40M
20 Flags of Our Fathers 2006 Warner Bros. $33,602,376 $32,297,873 $65,900,249 $90M
21 The 15:17 to Paris 2018 Warner Bros. $36,276,286 $20,900,000 $57,176,286 $30M
22 Firefox 1982 Warner Bros. $46,708,276 $0 $46,708,276 $21M
23 Richard Jewell 2019 Warner Bros. $22,345,542 $22,300,000 $44,645,542 $45M
24 Pale Rider 1985 Warner Bros. $41,410,568 $0 $41,410,568 $6.9M
25 The Gauntlet 1977 Warner Bros. $35,400,000 $0 $35,400,000 $5.5M
26 The Outlaw Josey Wales 1976 Warner Bros. $31,800,000 $0 $31,800,000 $3.7M
27 Blood Work 2002 Warner Bros. $26,235,081 $5,559,637 $31,794,718 $50M
28 Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil 1997 Warner Bros. $25,105,255 $0 $25,105,255 $30M
29 Bronco Billy 1980 Warner Bros. $24,265,659 $0 $24,265,659 $6.5M
30 The Rookie 1990 Warner Bros. $21,633,874 $0 $21,633,874 $30M
31 True Crime 1999 Warner Bros. $16,649,768 $0 $16,649,768 $55M
32 Cry Macho 2021 Warner Bros. $10,310,734 $6,200,000 $16,510,734 $33M
33 High Plains Drifter 1973 Universal $15,700,000 $0 $15,700,000 $5.5M
34 The Eiger Sanction 1975 Universal $14,200,000 $0 $14,200,000 $9M
35 Play Misty for Me 1971 Universal $10,600,000 $0 $10,600,000 $950K
36 Honkytonk Man 1982 Warner Bros. $4,484,991 $0 $4,484,991 $2M
37 White Hunter Black Heart 1990 Warner Bros. $2,319,124 $0 $2,319,124 $24M
38 Bird 1988 Warner Bros. $2,181,286 $0 $2,181,286 $14M
39 Breezy 1973 Universal $200,000 $17,753 $217,753 $750K
Across those 39 films, he has made $3,536,687,297 worldwide. That's $90,684,289 per film.

The Verdict

Insanely profitable.
Even the bombs do not taint this kind of reputation. Eastwood has made all these films under budget and never past its deadline. That's something that has to be treasured for studios, no wonder he's been staying with Warner Bros. since 1976. His ability to get films ready in short notice is impressive; Richard Jewell started filming in June and it was on theaters in December. One of the most impressive actors who transitioned into directors. You can tell that Sergio Leone and Don Siegel taught him well.
Now of course, his method of directing can also have its setbacks: he's often known for not asking for multiple takes and he skips rehearsals. So that means the performances of his actors aren't always the best they could've done. Which is why, despite making some masterpieces or fantastic films, he's also made a few films with weak technical aspects: poor lighting (J. Edgar), questionable logic (Cry Macho), and some bad acting (Gran Torino and The 15:17 to Paris). At the same time, it's clear he can also get extraordinary performances through these methods; Gene Hackman, Sean Penn, Tim Robbins, Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman won Oscars for starring in his films.
He also proved old age doesn't prevent you from continuing to work. He's turning 94 in a few weeks, and he's still directing films. Manoel de Oliveira directed films until he was 104, so perhaps we still have a few more years with Eastwood behind the camera.
P.S. Ever since I started this series, there's been suggestions that I should do "Actors at the Box Office" multiple times. While the idea is intriguing, that doesn't seem feasible for me. I'd have to categorize whether the actor is leading, supporting, original IP, adaptation, remakes, etc. Besides, with the continuing decline of star power, it's tough to decide what actor is truly moving the needle at the box office. That's why I'm making solely "Directors at the Box Office", because the director is responsible for the production. If the film succeeds, the director will get credit. And if the film flops, the director will be blamed. So this is the closest you'll get to "Actors at the Box Office".
Hope you liked this edition. You can find this and more in the wiki for this section.
The next director will be Robert Zemeckis. One of the biggest falls from grace.
I asked you to choose who else should be in the run and the comment with the most upvotes would be chosen. It had to be a controversial filmmaker. Well, we'll later talk about... Zack Snyder. Oh, BoxOffice chose fuego 🔥
This is the schedule for the following four:
Week Director Reasoning
May 20-26 Robert Zemeckis Can we get old Zemeckis back?
May 27-June 2 Richard Donner An influential figure of the 70s and 80s.
June 3-9 Ang Lee What happened to Lee?
June 10-16 Zack Snyder RIP Inbox.
Who should be next after Snyder? That's up to you.
submitted by SanderSo47 to u/SanderSo47 [link] [comments]

2024.05.16 20:12 LoboLocoCW California's outstanding education benefits for children of disabled veterans is slept on

Technically it's not just for children, but they're the most common category of dependent and most likely to benefit from *one* of the plans. It zeroes out tuition, it does not cover other expenses.
I just learned that California shifted its income-eligibility status (under Plan B) to a state-level poverty wage, rather than a federal-level poverty wage. This is a shift from something like a ~$15k annual limit for the child, to a ~$20k annual limit, and will increase as California's Franchise Tax Board revises.
One HUGE advantage of this program is that it does not require the VETERAN to live in California, which is a lot more flexible, than, say, Washington's. This is based on the residency of the DEPENDENT.
I told a friend about this when I was using my GI Bill, and by the next week not only did she zero out her future law school tuition, she got a refund on the amount she had already paid. She later ran into difficulties using this with an MBA program, because there was confusion over what it covers. It apparently covers "academic" programs, which includes full-time MBA studies, but does not cover "self-funded" or "professional" programs like the part-time MBA programs. So, her parent's sacrifices *only* covered a law degree.
Three useful links for you and your dependents to assess:
California College Fee Waiver, to explain in further detail (I'll copy-past the content of this here, but it may update) https://www.calvet.ca.gov/VetServices/Pages/College-Fee-Waiver.aspx
How a Dependent would to establish residency in California for Education purposes (TLDR: 366 days, intent to permanently stay):
https://www.ucop.edu/residency/establishing-residency.html
California Income Eligiblity Limits for Plan B (looks like $21,561 for 2024 based off 2023 numbers): https://www.ftb.ca.gov/file/personal/residency-status/index.html

College Fee Waiver

​​​The College Fee Waiver for Veteran Dependents benefit waives mandatory system-wide tuition and fees at any State of California Community College, California State University, or University of California campus. This program does not cover the expense of books, parking or room and board. There are four plans under which dependents of Veterans may be eligible.

Plan A

The Veteran must have served at least one day of active duty during a period of war as declared by the U.S. Congress, or during any time in which the Veteran was awarded a campaign or expeditionary medal. Concurrent receipt of benefits under Plan A and VA Chapter 35 benefits is prohibited. To receive benefits under Plan A, a dependent must sign an "Election To Receive College Waiver Benefits" statement acknowledging this fact. There are no income restrictions under this plan. To be eligible, the event which caused basic entitlement to benefits (i.e., the date the Veteran died of service-connected causes or the date the military or United States Department of Veterans Affairs (USDVA) rated the Veteran as totally disabled as a result of service-connected disabilities) must have occurred prior to the child's 21st birthday.

Plan B

The child of a Veteran who has a service-connected disability, or had a service-connected disability at the time of death, or died of service-related causes is eligible. The child's annual income, which includes the child's adjusted gross income, plus the value of support provided by a parent, may not exceed the annual income limit. The current academic year entitlement is based upon the previous calendar year's annual income. Under Plan B, wartime service is not required and there are no specific age requirements. Children are the only dependents eligible under this plan. There is no prohibition against receiving concurrent VA Chapter 35 benefits.

Plan C

Any dependent of any member of the California National Guard, who in the line of duty while on active service to the state, was killed, died of a disability resulting from an event that occurred while in active service to the state, or is permanently disabled as a result of an event that occurred while in the service to the state is eligible. Surviving spouses who have not remarried are also eligible.
"Active service to the state," for the purpose of this benefit, means a member of the California National Guard activated pursuant to Section 146 of the Military and Veterans Code. A copy of those orders pursuant to Section 146, not Section 143, must be furnished to establish eligibility.

Plan D

Medal of Honor recipients and children of Medal of Honor recipients under the age of 27 may qualify. Benefits under Plan D are limited to undergraduate studies only, and applicants are subject to both income and age restrictions. There is no prohibition against receiving concurrent VA Chapter 35 benefits.

Notes:

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2024.05.15 21:15 dabluebunny Engine surges and sputters only at full throttle after it starts to warms up.

The original carb was shot (owner broke one of the plastic arms for float, and parts were missing). I replaced the carb, and runs, but I feel like it could run smoother.
Engine is a Briggs and Stratton 219907-0131-E1 Cylinder Head
(Snapper 7800104 - 2812523BVE, 28" 12.5 HP Rear Engine Rider)
I've tried both the Briggs and Stratton 590399 and 593432 carbs, and the governor arm dances a bit. Both carbs have no adjustments (that I am aware of besides widening out a jet), and I cannot figure out how to get the hiccups to stop.
For reference the machine came to me with a crank case FULL of gas, and I have;
-Cleaned machine of debris/ grass/ and oil grime
-Drained the oil/ gas, and flushed with new oil
-New oil
-new fuel lines, filter, and added a shut off
-New carb
-New gaskets from carb to engine head
-New air filter
-New plug
My thought is it must be valves, but I've done valves before this I feels like a fuel air thing.
Link to video
What are your guys thoughts?
Thanks in advance! I appreciate any help, or advice!
submitted by dabluebunny to smallengines [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 00:06 3enjammin Help on speed adjustment.

Help on speed adjustment.
Hey all, I just picked up a Columvia Vivitonal model 120. Has a heineman flyer 8653 in it which surprisingly worked when I opened it up. The problem I'm running into is the speed control knob doesn't reach the governor arm at all until it's like 80% extended. I'm not entirely sure how to go about adjusting it and I don't want to break something by trial and error. Hoping someone can point me in the right direction as Google has let me down
submitted by 3enjammin to Phonographs [link] [comments]

2024.05.12 00:31 Substantial_Item_828 No, It’s Not Joever: How 2024 Polling Is Underestimating Joe Biden

No, It’s Not Joever: How 2024 Polling Is Underestimating Joe Biden
Note: This essay was written about a month ago, for a school project. Some of the numbers and polling averages may be slightly outdated, but the point of the essay still stands.
Introduction
“DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.”
That’s what the front-page headline of the Chicago Tribune said on November 3rd, 1948. It’s also what the polls had all been saying for months: that New York governor Thomas Dewey would defeat incumbent president Harry Truman and become the next president of the United States. And yet, he didn’t. Truman won reelection in a massive upset, defying the polls. Somehow, Truman had gone from trailing Dewey in polls by so much that cartoons like the following were created, to winning the election.
https://preview.redd.it/oqba22kugvzc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=92204f20feee6faea87f731a797760140c4a0814
Truman was a very unpopular president. His campaign was also plagued by third parties threatening to split his votes: Strom Thurmond on the right and Henry Wallace on the left. The way he was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat can’t be described as anything less than amazing.
Historians still debate over it, but the most popular theory is that Truman was able to win many voters who disapproved of him because he successfully painted Republicans as being worse than he was. This strategy was aided by Dewey’s weak campaign. Many voters didn’t like Truman, and when polled, wouldn’t say they would vote for him, but when the time came, they held their nose and pulled the lever for the president. The election was a lesson to not treat polls as gospel.
Today, the nation faces another presidential election. The Democratic candidate is incumbent president Joe Biden. He’s running for reelection despite concerns about his age and rumors he wouldn’t run again due to it. On the Republican side, former president Donald Trump is the nominee. He faced opposition in the primaries, most notably by former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, but beat her and his other opponents without too much trouble. The election is the first presidential rematch since 1956. Several independent/third-party candidates are running too, the most notable being Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr. for short), nephew of JFK. He’s been polling very high for a third-party candidate, getting double digits in many polls.
Biden beat Trump in 2020, but opinion polls have been showing Trump leading Biden, often by large margins. As of April 1st, Trump leads Biden by 1.1% in the national polling average according to racetothewh.com, an election prediction/poll aggregation website. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, so this is a sizable swing right. Trump also leads Biden in all seven swing states. Below is a chart comparing the 2020 presidential election margin and the 2024 polling average in the seven swing states.
https://preview.redd.it/9wvdn2yzgvzc1.png?width=631&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9c69e14cedfecc11d866837b9533d3e39a30db0
It seems like Biden’s doomed. He needs to win at least some of the swing states to win the election, and right now he isn’t winning any of them. It looks like Trump is on track to becoming the second president ever to win a non-consecutive second term, after Grover Cleveland.
But there’s something else going on.
Biden’s bad polling situation seems simple on the surface. He’s incredibly unpopular, having an approval rating of 39.1% (net -16.3%) according to FiveThirtyEight. His bout of unpopularity seems to have started around the Afghanistan withdrawal, although when asking someone their reason for disliking Biden they’ll probably say something about his age or the economy instead. So, it makes sense that Biden would be polling badly. He’s an unpopular president, and people would rather have Trump.
But it isn’t that simple. Because looking deeper, there are some things that don’t make sense. Crosstabs of polls showing massive realignments not seen since the Civil Rights era. Other indicators of a president in trouble not showing up. Things that when put together, suggest Biden may not be in as much danger as the polls say.
When all the evidence is put together and analyzed, it’s clear that Biden is not doomed, not at all. Biden’s bad polling can be explained by two things. First, bad polling methodology underpolling his supporters. Second, people who are supporting third parties now, but will eventually return to Biden. These two things are both making Biden’s polling look bad, although which one has a stronger effect depends on the poll and the demographic group. Additionally, all the indicators other than the polls, like primary elections and special/off-year elections, don’t show Biden in too much trouble.
Explaining Racial and Age Depolarization
First, context is needed for the rest of this essay to make sense. So, as was said earlier, 2024 polls are showing Biden doing much worse than his 2020 performance. That makes sense – Biden is less popular, so naturally fewer people want to vote for him. The strange part is what demographic groups Biden is slipping with. Instead of a mostly uniform shift, which would be expected, almost all of Biden’s losses seem to come among nonwhite voters – most significantly black and Hispanic voters. He’s also losing ground among young voters (usually defined as voters between the ages of 18 and 29). The Democratic Party traditionally does well with these groups, so this is of course concerning for Biden. Even more strange is that in some polls, Biden is actually making some inroads among the demographics that are historically the base of the Republican Party – those being white voters and seniors. Looking at the aggregation of crosstabs of polls during February, there are many abnormalities.
The aggregation shows Trump making massive gains among black and Hispanic voters (swings of R+28.4 and R+18.5 respectively) but making almost zero gains among white voters (R+0.1, but right under that there are slight blue swings with both college educated and non-college educated whites, likely a product of not all polls recording results for those groups). This is strange, to say the least. White people seem to be perfectly fine with Biden, while nonwhite people suddenly despise him. This phenomenon is called racial depolarization, or racedep for short.
Swings among different age groups are also odd. Trump is improving by 16.1 points among voters aged 18-29 but losing 1.8 points with seniors and 4 points with voters aged 50-64. Young voters are much more liberal than older voters. Every opinion poll and election result suggests this. Unless they’ve suddenly become much more conservative, them supporting Trump over Biden doesn’t make sense. Along with racedep, age depolarization ("agedep") is common in crosstabs of 2024 polls.
Those are not the only depolarizations supposedly going on, as can be seen in the tweet. Urban and suburban voters moving towards Trump while rural voters move towards Biden. Democrats moving towards Trump, Republicans moving towards Biden. Geographical and political polarization have been increasing in recent years, so this suggests a strange reverse of that trend. 2024 probably won’t be a large realignment, it’s more likely something is just wrong with the polls.
Explaining Primaries
Presidential primary season has been going on for a few months, after the Iowa caucus kicked it off in January. While Biden and Trump both won their primaries easily, how strong their performances were in different areas can reveal a lot about how certain groups are feeling about the candidacies of the two – like black, Hispanic, and young voters. But first, protest voting has to be explained.
When an incumbent president is running for reelection, they usually do not face much opposition in the primaries. Typically, only no-name minor candidates are the other people on the ballot besides the president. They do not have a chance at winning, but they do serve as a way for people who are upset with the president to express it. Sometimes, the “Uncommitted” option is also used to protest. Look back to 2012, when Obama was running for reelection. He swept the primaries, but his worst performances were in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, where he got under 60% of the vote.
The four states all had something in common: a lot of the registered Democrats were white conservatives who before 2008 voted Democratic, but switched to McCain because they didn’t like Obama’s dark vision for America. They voted against Obama in the primaries because they didn’t like him and didn’t want him to be the nominee. Those voters would then go on to vote Republican in the general election. The places that swung the hardest against Obama in 2008 were also the places where he did the worst in the 2012 primaries.
2004-2008 swing
2012 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary
2012 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary
2012 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary
2012 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary
Now, those four states were already very red even before 2008, Obama was not going to win them and he did not need to win them. But if a candidate is doing badly in a potentially competitive state’s primary, they should heed the warning – or risk losing. Another good example of protest voting can be found in the 2016 Democratic primary. Hillary Clinton did very poorly in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – losing the first two to Sanders and coming close to losing the last. And where Sanders’s support was strongest was in rural areas – also the areas that swung the most towards Trump in the general election. Trump narrowly flipped all three of those states, winning him the presidency.
2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary
2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
2012-2016 swing
The polls said Clinton would easily win all three states, while the primaries said she would struggle in them – and the primaries were right.
The 2024 Primaries
Presidential primaries can give an idea of where a candidate might underperform in the general election, and 2024 primaries are no exception. If black, Hispanic, and young voters are upset with Biden, like the polls are suggesting, then they will protest vote against him. The first primary that will be examined is the South Carolina primary. South Carolina is 26% black according to the 2020 census, and that number is even higher among Democratic primary voters thanks to the racial polarization of the state – Biden won 90% of black South Carolinians in the 2020 election, while Trump won 73% of white South Carolinians.
https://preview.redd.it/x2t8cnl3hvzc1.png?width=338&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b5982c343da804a10a1221e623b2de84b2f1b86
South Carolina was also the first primary state (so Biden did not have momentum from winning contests at that point, nor was he the presumptive nominee), and the primary was open (meaning independents could vote), so the conditions for protest voting were as good as they could possibly be.
But despite all that, Biden got 96% of the vote.
If black people really are upset with Biden, they clearly don’t hate him enough to cast a protest vote against him. And looking at individual counties, there’s not even a correlation between the percent of black people and the percent of opposition vote. Biden got 97% of the vote in Allendale County (73% black, the blackest county in the state) and he got 95% in Pickens County (7% black, the least black county in the state). If anything, Biden did better in counties where there are more black people. And it’s not just South Carolina – in pretty much every state where black people make up a significant percentage of the Democratic electorate, Biden won by huge margins. He got 99% in Mississippi, 95% in Georgia, 90% in Alabama, and 86% in Louisiana. Biden came close to losing a few counties in Louisiana – but not the ones with lots of black people. The counties he did the worst in are heavily white. The same kind of people who gave Obama trouble in the 2012 primaries voted against Biden, too.
Evidently, black people aren’t protest voting against Biden. Young voters will be looked at next, using the Michigan primary. Just like South Carolina, Michigan has open primaries.
There was an organized campaign for the “Uncommitted” option in Michigan to protest Biden’s policy on Gaza and pressure him into calling for a ceasefire. The Uncommitted option did modestly well, getting 13% of the vote, slightly higher than it did twelve years ago when Obama was running for reelection. The Uncommitted campaign achieved their (unambitious) goal of 10,000 votes, getting slightly over 100,000. Biden got 81% of the vote, while Williamson and Phillips took the remaining 6%.
What’s interesting though, is where Uncommitted did the best. Its strongest performance was in Wayne County (which includes Detroit and a few other cities), where it got 17%. Wayne County is home to 140,000 Arab Americans who make up 7.8% of the county’s population, so the strong Uncommitted performance wasn’t surprising. The second strongest county for Uncommitted was Washtenaw County (also 17%), which doesn’t have many Arab Americans. What it does have, however, is the University of Michigan. With over 50,000 students enrolled, it’s one of the largest colleges in the country. Looking at a precinct map of the results for Washtenaw County, Uncommitted did well because UMich students were protest voting against Biden.
https://preview.redd.it/nov5qkx5hvzc1.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=cec905bdfdd4fa10be01d03a97a220925d4ffa6d
Ann Arbor, the city where UMich is located, had a very high percentage of Uncommitted votes. There’s no doubt about it, college students were voting Uncommitted to protest Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.
Looking at college counties in other primaries, there was generally a trend of the Uncommitted option (or whatever name the state has for it) doing well. In Dane County, Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin), there was lots of protest voting against Biden. “Uninstructed” got 15% in Dane vs 8% statewide.
“None of these names” did well in Douglas County, Kansas (University of Kansas), getting 14.5% of the vote, compared to the statewide average of 10.3%.
And Uncommitted got a sizable 21% in New Haven, Connecticut (Yale University), compared to 11% statewide.
There’s definitely some protest voting against Biden by young voters. But remember the reason most of them are unhappy with Biden in the first place: it’s because of Gaza. Trump is more pro-Israel then Biden, so it makes no sense for them to support him. That’s different from Haley voters, who are ideologically between Biden and Trump. Things may be more complicated than they seem, as will be discussed later, but first here’s the analysis of the third group Biden has been slipping with in polls: Hispanic voters. The Texas primary is a good place to judge how Hispanic voters are feeling about Biden. Texas has open primaries, like Michigan and South Carolina.
Biden did the worst in South and West Texas. One of the places he underperformed the most was the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). He got percentages in the 60s, 50s, and even 40s in many RGV counties, with his worst performance being in Zapata County, where he got a pathetic 40% of the vote.
The RGV is heavily Hispanic, so at first this seems like a validation of the polls showing Trump making massive gains among Hispanic voters – but it isn’t the only place in Texas where Hispanic people live. Biden performed very strongly in El Paso County, an 82% Hispanic county home to the city of the same name.
He also did well in places like Bexar County (San Antonio, 59% Hispanic), Dallas County (Dallas, 40% Hispanic), and Harris County (Houston, 43% Hispanic).
Looking at other states, it seems like Biden’s RGV performance was the exception, not the rule. He got 81% in Imperial County, California (86% Hispanic); and 83% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona (83% Hispanic).
Hispanic voters have been slowly trending towards Republicans over time, so Biden’s performances are even more impressive when that factor is taken into account. According to exit polls, Hispanic voters voted for Obama by 44 points, Clinton by 38 points, and 2020 Biden by 33 points. A lot of the people voting against Biden may be registered as Democrats but didn’t vote for him in 2020.
https://preview.redd.it/h35vewo8hvzc1.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c5b78394104a627ae1b8019db62aa1c3a4a1b70
https://preview.redd.it/jlo9nlhdhvzc1.png?width=377&format=png&auto=webp&s=726526e7da2a9c8690ab01e00a12e2e49265445d
https://preview.redd.it/l4tremrehvzc1.png?width=458&format=png&auto=webp&s=0744e5c12f7c0c4eb05ec84b59a070174b017b98
Overall, primaries don’t support the polls showing Trump making huge gains among black/Hispanic/young voters. There’s zero evidence black voters are upset with Biden. As for the other two groups, there are some signs of discontent, but not enough to warrant the double-digit swings polls are showing. Biden’s underperformances in college counties/Hispanic counties, when present at all, are usually less than 10 points worse than his statewide performance. And that’s assuming every single person protest voting will go for Trump. If all protest voters really do vote for the other party in the general election, say hello to Biden’s second term, because Nikki Haley regularly gets twice the number of votes in Republican primaries as Biden’s opposition does in Democratic primaries. Even after she dropped out.
Midterms, Off-Years, and Special Elections
At the same time Biden has been doing well in primaries, Democrats have been scoring wins in special/off-year elections. These elections are historically correlated with the popularity of the president, so they conflict with the polls showing Biden down. Look at elections during the last three presidencies to know what happens when a president is unpopular.
While Trump was in office, he was quite the unpopular president, and his party lost many elections because of it. Through 2017-2019, Republicans lost a net 8 governorships, going from 34 to 26; and a net 41 House seats, going from 241 to 200. The only chamber they managed to gain in was the Senate (thanks to a very favorable map and increased polarization causing many Democrats in red states to lose) – but not without losing a special election in Alabama, a deep red state that had voted for Trump over Clinton by almost 28 points.
This pattern continues to back when Obama was in office. From 2009-2011, when he was at the height of his unpopularity due to the state of the economy and Obamacare, Democrats lost big. They went from 28 governorships to just 20, 257 House seats to only 193, and 59 Senate seats to only 53. Like Republicans with Alabama during Trump’s presidency, Democrats managed to lose a Senate special election in a state considered safe for their party – Massachusetts, which had voted for Obama by 26 points in 2008.
And it goes even further back to Bush’s presidency. Backlash over the wars caused Republicans to lose 6 governorships from 2005-2007 (going from 28 seats to 22), 30 House seats (232 down to 202), and 6 Senate seats (55 to 49).
But despite Biden’s unpopularity and bad polling, Democrats have been doing well in elections despite precedent saying they shouldn’t be. The 2022 midterms, which were supposed to be a red wave, were anything but. Democrats flipped a net 2 governorships and 1 Senate seat, and only barely lost the House. The small majority Republicans won has been giving them trouble when trying to govern. Already, one Speaker was ousted and it’s possible a second might be too.
More recently, Democrats won the governorship in Kentucky and almost won it in Mississippi, both very red states. They flipped the Virginia state house and won a supreme court election in Pennsylvania by a large margin. Two months ago, they won a competitive special election for a House seat in New York by a decisive 8-point margin.
Interestingly, the normal pattern of an unpopular president’s party doing poorly manifested early in Biden’s term. After his approval rating crashed during the Afghanistan withdrawal, Democrats went on to lose the governorship (and state house) of Virginia, and almost lost the governorship of New Jersey. Both states voted for Biden by double digits in the 2020 election. Something changed between November 2021 and November 2022 to cause this shift. It might have been the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe V. Wade and allow states to ban abortion. In several special elections right after the decision, Democrats overperformed massively. For example, Republicans won the special election for Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, which voted for Trump by 11 points in 2020, by only a 5-point margin. The election took place just four days after the Dobbs decision.
The Trump-backed candidates nominated in many Senate and governor elections could also be the ones to blame. Thanks to Trump’s endorsement, many extremist candidates won the primaries in key races. They often denied the results of the 2020 presidential election and had other problematic views. Most of them went on to lose the general election, sometimes by huge margins. Below is a table of all the results.
https://preview.redd.it/vx1ilmujhvzc1.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=2771b74c5d4257d66b4825078ada46216b0be9bd
Whatever the cause, Republicans flopped in 2022 and haven’t recovered since. And it doesn’t seem like Trump will be able to avoid the problems plaguing his party. His handpicked candidates were the ones that did terribly while other Republicans often did well; and the abortion issue isn’t just going away, not to mention Trump’s the one responsible for getting Roe overturned with his SCOTUS appointments.
Of course, there’s a counterargument: that Biden is somehow breaking historical precedent, and he’ll do badly while other Democrats do fine. That seems like a reasonable theory, until the fact that Biden vs Trump and the generic congressional ballot are polling exactly the same is considered. As of April 5th, at least.
https://preview.redd.it/l0ecq2slhvzc1.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8c231135e068129cc1f9c3e1a3b9b2ce41be3fb
Since work on this essay has started, Biden has experienced a little surge of support in the polls. It could just be noise, but it might be something else.
https://preview.redd.it/m14gsmjmhvzc1.png?width=1043&format=png&auto=webp&s=43bc8d8146b31f5a613a1e7a4adc4ca30a858750
Biden has also been polling as well as (or sometimes even better than) hypothetical Democratic candidates for president like VP Kamala Harris, California governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.
It could be argued Biden is only doing better because he has higher name recognition, and Democrats who don’t know the other three candidates are answering undecided. But Michelle Obama being extremely well-known didn’t stop her from trailing Trump by the exact same amount as Biden in a poll.
https://preview.redd.it/7h189dpnhvzc1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=42aa042e9462022d397bbe212c428e41f4d40c99
Democrats are doing much better in actual elections than in polls, and Biden’s polling the same as other Democrats. It stands to reason that Biden would also do better in an election than in polls.
The Problem with the Polls
While primary and off-year elections suggest Biden isn’t doing badly, they still don’t explain the polls. One theory is that the black/Hispanic/young voters who don’t like Biden aren’t voting in any elections, that’s why Democrats are doing well. Perhaps the biggest proponent of this theory is Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for the NYT.
This theoretical group of low-propensity Trump supporters who love answering polls but don’t vote in any elections sounds dubious, and that’s probably because it doesn’t exist at all. Biden’s bad polling is caused by two main things. The first is bad methodology, but before that is discussed, how polls work must be explained.
Polls work by contacting a certain number of voters, usually around a thousand, and asking them how they plan to vote. The 2024 options are usually Biden/Trump/Undecided/Other. Sometimes Other is changed to real third-party candidates, like RFK Jr. Polls also ask information on the voter, like their race, sex, age, and region. After data is collected, polls are weighted to reflect real demographics. For example, if a poll’s raw data has 40% of respondents living in urban areas while 60% live in rural areas, and the actual percentage of voters is 50% urban and 50% rural, then the responses of the urban voters are weighted higher. If that poll has urban areas voting 60D/40R and rural areas 40D/60R, then the raw data is 48D/52R while the weighted (and final) data is 50D/50R.
This seems like an effective way to avoid bias in polls, and account for lower response rates from certain groups. If rural voters are answering at a higher rate, just give them less weight. If Hispanic voters are answering at a lower rate, give them more weight. The thing is, voters don’t belong to just one group. A person can both live in a rural area and be Hispanic. And while groups (rural voters, Hispanic voters) are weighted, subgroups (rural Hispanic voters) are not.
Say, rural Hispanic voters are more Republican than urban and suburban Hispanic voters. Say, they’re answering polls at higher rates as well. Rural voters will be weighted lower in the poll, but that’s just all rural voters combined. Rural Hispanic voters are not weighted vs other Hispanics. That would lead to Hispanic voters in the poll being more Republican than they are in reality.
A typical poll has around a thousand respondents, and a margin of error of about ±3%. The sample sizes for different groups, however, are much smaller, which means a bigger margin of error. Let’s say Hispanic voters are 10% of the poll’s respondents, or a hundred in total. That’s a margin of error of ±8%, much larger than the ±3% for the poll as a whole. And if rural Hispanic voters are 20% of all Hispanic voters, that’s a margin of error of ±18%! Small inaccuracies in subgroups can cause a ripple effect that makes the whole poll wrong. Let’s do a simulation to show this effect off.
  • True voting intention among all Hispanic voters is 63% Biden, 37% Trump (D+26).
  • True voting intention among all non-rural Hispanic voters is 65% Biden, 35% Trump (D+30).
  • True voting intention among rural Hispanic voters is 55% Biden, 45% Trump (D+10).
  • 100 Hispanic voters answer the poll.
  • Rural Hispanic voters make up 40% of the poll’s respondents (40 people), they make up 20% of the real Hispanic population. Since subgroups are not weighted, their influence on Hispanic voters in the poll is double what it should be.
  • Due to the large margin of error of ±13%, rural Hispanic voters who answered the poll said they’d vote 45% Biden, 55% Trump. That’s 22 Trump voters and 18 Biden voters answering the poll. A proportional sample would have 22 Biden voters and 18 Trump voters. That’s just a 4-person difference.
  • Non-rural Hispanic voters in the poll said they’d vote 65% Biden, 35% Trump (the true number).
  • The average of Hispanic voters in the poll is 57% Biden, 43% Trump (D+14), a 12% swing from the true numbers.
And all that must happen for this problem to occur regularly is for Trump-voting rural Hispanics to answer polls at a slightly higher rate than Biden-voting rural Hispanics, and rural voters to answer polls at a higher rate than urban voters. And since polls collect responses from people who answer the polls first, the effect can happen easily.
You guessed it, this is happening in real life. And not just with Hispanic voters, but with everyone.
A pattern among 2024 polls is that rural voters are answering at a higher rate than urban/suburban voters. In one NYT/Siena poll (Trump+4), rural voters made up about 35% of the respondents, when they only made up 19% of the 2020 electorate.
In another poll by Grinnell College (Trump+7), rural voters made up 27% of the respondents. Voters who said they lived in a “town” made up 17%, and it’s likely at least some of them would break for rural if they had to choose between urban/suburban/rural.
Looking at the 538 poll database, a clear pattern emerges. Polls that have Trump leading Biden have a proportion of rural voters that is way too high. Polls where Biden leads Trump have more normal numbers.
Rural voters tend to be more conservative and vote Republican, and sure enough, Republicans are answering at a higher rate then Democrats. (scroll to "Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?" for the NYT/Siena poll and the top of page 6 for the Grinnell College poll. Both show more Republicans answering the poll than Democrats.)
One pollster, Susquehanna Polling and Research, remarked that Trump supporters seem to have higher enthusiasm than Biden supporters, and so are answering polls at a higher rate.
The second reason why Trump may not be winning Pennsylvania has to do with who is answering polls. We suspect because Trump is the only candidate with “enthusiastic” voters, it’s Trump voters in particular who are disproportionately talking to pollsters. It’s the reverse of what happened in 2016, when the phenomenon of “shy” Trump voters meant that many pollsters undercounted Trump’s base of support. Many voters were afraid to admit they were Trumpers back then. Today, we suspect many pollsters are not adjusting their samples to account for this “non-response” bias, as it’s typically called. But SP&R is doing so.
Polls also say that Trump voters are more enthusiastic than Biden voters.
Republicans are slightly more enthusiastic ahead of November’s general election, edging out Democrats, according to a new survey.
In the poll, released Thursday by Gallup, 59 percent of Republicans said they are more enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election than in previous years. Fifty-five percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents said they felt the same.
Groups like seniors and white voters may not be swinging towards Trump because there isn’t an enthusiasm gap, unlike with black/Hispanic/young voters. According to a YouGov poll, groups that aren’t swinging towards Trump in the crosstab aggregate are also paying more attention to the election (and therefore are more enthusiastic, and answering more polls). When black/Hispanic/young voters start paying more attention, they’ll get enthusiastic and start answering polls, which should improve Biden’s polling.
https://preview.redd.it/0899t1ephvzc1.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f9fe91a2d30381a9f08e7e1883b90679aefd6a0
And that rural Hispanic voter hypothetical was based on something real. Rural Hispanic voters were already more Republican than other Hispanics in the 2020 election; and Biden did badly in the rural RGV in the primaries while doing better in cities like El Paso. The difference may be even larger than it was four years ago, with rural Hispanics swinging against Biden while urban and suburban Hispanics don’t. Rural Hispanics make up a small percentage of Hispanic voters (scroll down to "Area type"), so this swing doesn’t mean much for Biden’s electoral prospects. It screws with the crosstabs of Hispanic voters, however.
As Biden’s voters become more enthusiastic and the gap closes, polls may start swinging towards him as more of his voters answer polls. There have already been signs of this happening, like that surge in support mentioned earlier. Perhaps it’s because of the recent ad blitz by Biden energizing his supporters?
Oversamples, and the True State of the Election
Biden voters are not answering polls as much as Trump voters, and this is creating big swings in crosstabs thanks to low sample sizes. Polls with bigger sample sizes would be much better. The margins of error would be much smaller and the crosstabs much more accurate. Unfortunately, it’s too expensive to make polls with huge sample sizes, but there’s still the next best thing – oversamples.
Oversamples are polls that poll only one specific group. While a normal poll polls everyone, an oversample might poll only black voters, for example. Because of the big sample sizes, oversamples are much better for determining the voting intentions of groups than just looking at the crosstabs of normal polls. Oversamples can also use more advanced methods of polling to reach people who may not respond otherwise.
There are three oversamples that are going to be examined here. The first is by Black PAC, and it’s an oversample of black voters.
https://preview.redd.it/epcr7xeqhvzc1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=6938941ae9e6b345778035bfd45f7ceb81aa98ed
Trump gets a pathetic 8% of black voters, less than half of the polling aggregate showing him getting 18%. This, along with Biden’s strong primary performances, suggest that the bad polling for Biden among black voters is entirely due to bad polling methodology.
Next, Hispanic voters. An oversample of Hispanic voters by Univision shows Biden leading Trump 58-31 (27 points). Again, that’s completely different from the polling aggregate showing Biden winning them by only 6 points. It is a slight decrease from 2020, where he won them by 33 points; but like stated earlier, Hispanics have been trending right for a while, so Trump making small gains among them isn’t surprising.
And finally, young voters. Split Ticket, an election prediction and analysis website, polled young voters. They used live text interviews, rather than a normal method like calling landlines.
In the poll, Biden leads Trump 35-25, a 10 point lead. Biden is disapproved of by 68% of young voters, while Trump is disapproved of by 70%. Of the three oversamples, this is the only one that lines up closely with the crosstab aggregate (Biden+8). Biden won young voters by 24 points in 2020, so it looks Trump is making large gains among the group.
But it’s not that simple.
Biden and Trump have a similar total disapproval rating, but the number of respondents who strongly disapprove of Trump is 61%. For Biden, it’s just 44%. This means Trump likely has a lower ceiling of support with young voters than Biden does – it’s hard to get someone who hates you to vote for you.
Additionally, young voters who disapprove of both Biden and Trump overwhelmingly prefer Biden to Trump. RFK Jr. actually wins this group, but like all third party candidates, his support is declining as the election gets closer. The combined voteshare in polls for RFK Jr. and Cornel West (a left-wing independent candidate) has been steadily decreasing. 6 months ago, it was 17.9%. Today, it’s only 11.5%. This raises the question of who RFK Jr.’s supporters will break for when they realize he can’t win.
https://preview.redd.it/zt0t5ptzhvzc1.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd1f7c717e66e750c57e76eaa617966708ebd222
Based on the approval ratings of Biden and Trump, and the “double haters” who already have chosen sides, it seems like the vast majority of young RFK Jr. supporters will go for Biden. His lead among young voters will only increase as time goes on. Of course, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to run ads like these to speed up the process.
Split Ticket also conducted a poll using a more normal method, an opt-in web panel. This poll had Trump doing much better with young voters than in their live text poll. So yes, some commonly used polling methods don’t work correctly!
Conclusion
Biden has been polling badly lately. He’s been trailing Trump nationally as well as in swing states. Polls say key parts of the Democratic base, black/Hispanic/young voters, are abandoning Biden in huge numbers. But when looked at closely, it’s not so simple. Other signs for Biden are pretty good. He’s been doing pretty well in primaries, and Democrats have been doing well in special and off-year elections. Polls are underestimating Biden’s support due to bad methodology and Democrats not answering polls. Oversamples show Biden doing fine with black voters, and mostly fine with Hispanic voters. The only group he really needs to work on is young voters, by trying to decrease RFK Jr.’s support.
So, 2024 won’t be a red wave where Trump wins big. But current signs don’t suggest 2024 is going to be a blue wave either, just another extremely close election like 2016 and 2020 both were. But there’s reason to believe Biden might outperform his 2020 showing despite that.
The American public is not very engaged right now, as there’s still seven months until the election, so Trump’s latest ventures with the legal system aren’t on people’s minds. When people tune in more, he can only get hurt from it. There’s also the massive fundraising gap between the two, which Trump is scrambling to close.
Here’s a prediction for how the election will actually go (margins are 20+, 15-19.9, 10-14.9, 5-9.9, 1-4.9, <1).
https://preview.redd.it/ufw3oxa2ivzc1.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=55a5dcc6c246cb34381165d211b17181717ef196
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2024.05.11 20:04 avajohonson0 Wgu help online Reddit Software Developer Certificate - Web Development Certificate - Business - Intelligence Certificate - Data Science Certificate Helper for WGU Courses Reddit Exam Assignment Homework Quix Test Project Helper Exam Taker Reddit WGU Course Assistance & Help for Hire Reddit

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2024.05.11 15:52 SpacePaladin15 The Nature of Predators 2-35

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Star Crossed [Multiple Free Sample Chapters] Patreon Subreddit Discord Paperback NOP2 Species Lore
It was unspeakably cold throughout every nerve. I could feel the power leaving the breaths from my lungs, and the life leaking out onto the floor below. It was slipping away so quickly, a rapid drain from my insides. Multiple wounds had perforated my abdomen—life was so fragile. I tried to claw my way up, to find something to say, but shock was taking over. I was hanging onto consciousness by a thread.
The governor had to know. What would become of the galaxy and humanity in my stead? There had to be something better than this: a sudden eruption of violence and outrage. I had so many regrets, not the least of which was what happened to Earth.
I begged her to reach out, and find peace with the Arxur. I could feel her touch on the back of my head, but it was distant. Fading fast. Spend the final strength to make eye contact, to see what she sees.
The Venlil’s own blood was mixing with mine; there was a glaze in her eyes, almost masking the concern with remoteness. She had been a good friend to us, and I hated that she’d been hurt for it. I wondered if Tarva, like all the rest of her kind, thought we were animals now. My fear of what came next warred with my desire to fight for a cause. I could feel my blood pressure dropping, and the shallowness of my lungs trying to draw air. Was there life after death, or just eternal nothing? How would it feel?
Death was inevitable, of course, but I always assumed that I had more time. I didn’t want my person, my self, to be gone into the wind. Everything that I was and perceived would be nothing for all eternity. The only solace I could find was the thin hope that the future would be better—that something would change.
Darkness. A prison. Eyes sealed, never opening again. Irresistible to just rest—so unspeakably tired. So weary of my burdens and this world.
It’s as if I’m leaving my body, stepping out of it. Peaceful, and frigid as ice. There is no sensation.
There was a crack of light in my visual field, illuminating the darkness of unconsciousness. It batted away the gloom, as an unspeakable calm washed over me. Memories and faces of people long gone rapid-fired past me. I saw my grandmother knitting on the porch, smiling at me with a face I thought I’d forgotten. The moment that I’d been elected to the United Nations’ highest office, full of youth and fervor. The ideas and fire for peace all rushing back in an instant; I would’ve teared up if I had any connection to my body.
My parents stood side-by-side in the effervescent glow, pride in their pupils. There was a warmth in their gaze, and I could feel that it was all going to be okay. My concerns for the world slipped away; it was a place I no longer belonged to. It was time to heed the Reaper’s call, to join the sea of faces in the Great Beyond. I would be safe and at rest here.
A final moment of acceptance, of triumphant euphoria. The grand finale, the last gasps of consciousness. Then, there’s emptiness. The lights are dimmed, as it all slips into a place where nothing exists, and nothing ever will. My will, and ability to process, snatched from my fingers. I was no more.
A cold, dark, absence of personhood was all left behind when the embers settled. Time was a concept for a living; there were no thoughts abuzz in the mind, or cognizance of the experience at all. This was the end of everything.
Memory Transcription Subject: Elias Meier, Former UN Secretary-General
Date [standardized human time]: July 6, 2160
The sensation was as if the lights had been turned back on in a cobwebbed attic, after decades of disuse. The fog was choking, when the spark poked through a dormancy that couldn’t be described. I only had words to express the ever-after once the gears were back in motion. To say that I felt startled and disoriented was an understatement. Nothing seemed right either: sensation was an uncanny mess. I willed my fingers to move, but they felt alien, rather than anything like being my own.
I died. I…it’s hard to remember. The doctors must’ve resuscitated me or something, but the peek behind the curtain felt so real. Why was I even afraid of dying? The serenity was unmatched.
It took a moment for the world to come into focus, but there was a strangeness to processing the digital input. It felt as though visuals were being beamed to my mind, while my eyes were a mere decoy—even while they tried to mimic the real thing. The touch felt more like a vibration underneath saying something was connecting with my skin. Additionally, there was so much that I couldn’t pick up: saliva in my mouth, thirst or hunger, the temperature of the room, any aspect of breathing, or the normally-unnoticed sensation of blinking. Where was the pain too? Even with drugs, I had sustained a severe injury.
Perhaps this was the afterlife, and I was in fact dead. There was no feeling of being a real, flesh-and-blood human being.
“Hi, Elias.” The feeling of the translator’s mind-warping was familiar at least, suggesting that I wasn’t in the afterlife—unless there was a shared eternal paradise. I commanded my pupils to turn toward the voice, despite how forced and unnatural it felt. Fear signals knocked at my skull, as I spotted a talking ant-spider standing inches from my face; reflex almost took over to swing at him. “My name is Virnt. How are you feeling?”
I shied away from him, trying to swallow—nothing. “I can’t swallow. What the fuck? Where am I? What have you done to me? What are you?”
“I told you not to get right up in his face, Virnt,” a human voice said, hovering beside some holographic screen. Recognizing my own species calmed me a bit, since I was well aware how brutal aliens could be to predators. “I’ve known you since you were a child, and Tilfish still give me the heebie-jeebies sometimes.”
He’s known Virnt since childhood? How fast do these Tilfish grow up?
“I’m sorry. I was just extremely excited about the project, and the implications; I wanted to know how he’d react and handle it. I can give you a moment, Elias, or let you speak to someone else,” Virnt rambled.
My eyes darted around, wariness and unease settling in. “No, it’s okay. Just please, tell me what happened—what is going on, and…where we are. I am…almost certain I died.”
“You did. However, post-mortem, the Venlil did a scan on you—thoroughly imaging your brain. This is a Terra Technologies research lab. We replicated everything that made you yourself, down to an exact science. You have a new lease on life, with true synthetic immortality! I’m sure this feels strange, but I assure you, this version of you possesses all of your attributes, memories, and neural connections—we wanted you to be the same.”
That revelation was like a gutpunch, hearing that I was some…photocopy of Elias Meier, and that the genuine human being had passed away on the streets of Venlil Prime. I threw my legs over the bed in a blinding panic, trying to figure out what the hell I was. My brain—thought processor, I supposed—refused to accept that what I was feeling wasn’t real. The Tilfish scuttled after me as I sprinted toward a bathroom, on legs that worked, yet felt like unfinished emulations. My gaze locked on the mirror, and I stared at the familiar face. The visage was impressively lifelike: an accurate image of my true self, not some metal husk or a phony thing.
Maybe I should cut the skin, and see what’s underneath it—it’s just wires. I don’t like this one bit. Nope, nope, nope.
“Please don’t harm yourself!” Virnt blurted, somehow reading my mind. That I liked even less, and I was beginning to feel like a caged animal, or better yet, an amoeba under a microscope. I wanted to make this stop; it was a nightmare I desperately wanted to end. “Breathe…er, I mean, relax. I’ll tell you whatever you want to know.”
I tried to draw in a breath, but some emulator of my voice was all that responded. “Get out of my head!”
“I’m sorry about that. We’re trying to monitor your experiences for quality assurance, and to make corrections so this is less jarring for you. We can read any person’s mind live now; we’re just skipping the extra steps with your program.”
“What year is it? We didn’t have anything like this. And why have you done this to me?”
“It’s 2160. It’s been 24 years since you passed on, which is a long time, but…not as distant as it could have been! This technology could change everything. Our lives are so short, but they don’t have to be. Whether you want this or not, you know that many people do.”
24 years. I thought it’d be longer, but that’s something. I’m amazed that humanity is alive too; they’re tampering with dangerous realms. Fields that should’ve been left untouched.
Beset by a mismatch of emotions, I returned back to a chair, cradling my head in my hands. The last time I remembered crying was when the first bombs struck Earth; not that those even were my memories. This was overwhelming enough that I wanted to break down, but there were no tears in my unblinking eyes. God, I’d really have a predator stare now. I wished I could seal my cursed gaze shut, and fade unaware back into the dark. Thanks to the utter lack of breathing, there were also the faint cues that I was suffocating; the more time progressed, the more strongly it felt like I was constantly holding my breath while diving underwater. In the surreality of my present form, it was all I could do not to scream and succumb to mania.
You want to read my mind, Virnt? I never asked for, or agreed to this. I think you should’ve let me rest in peace.
The Tilfish’s antennae scrunched in a display of concern. “We’re planning to make adjustments so you’ll be more comfortable: it’s a learning process, for all those who’ll come next! If you really don’t want to be involved…we can shut off your program, Elias. I only wanted to give a hero of humanity a new lease on life.”
“Is that why you chose me?” Damn self-preservation. This is horrid, yet I don’t want to die again: to return to non-existence. I tried not to focus on what was missing from the current stimuli, and to train my thoughts on what he was saying. Through the blame, in my addled faculties, I felt a flicker of sympathy. “Because you think I…deserve better?”
“I have a lot of reasons, but that’s one of them. Look, now that this technology is out there, people are going to use it. I want it to be done right—humanely. You’re the right person to speak to the galactic community, and lobby for ethical standards and civil liberties. Where digital minds can be installed, minimum standards for comfort, and citizenship privileges.”
I cast a cold stare at them. “Can you turn me off at will? Control this body remotely?”
“I assure you, we won’t do that. It’d be the same thing as the murder or coercion of any other sapient—and I hope you believe I wouldn’t do that.”
The human from earlier spoke in a raspy voice that sounded a bit wild, yet distinctly familiar. He sported a welding mask, obscuring his features. “You’re free of so many of the burdens of being human: ones that I dream of escaping. You can change your face if it disgusts you, and you can’t feel pain. Your brain, your body, won’t break…and we never have to lose anyone again. Don’t you see the chance you’ve been given?”
My facial cues seemed responsive, down to the most minuscule muscles; I slanted my eyebrows inward. “I know you. Your voice.”
“No, you don’t. It’s understandable with all this that you’re latching onto anything familiar. Chalk it up as a technical glitch and move on.”
“It’s not that, Marcel Fraser. It might have been decades to you, but it's been two weeks since I remember speaking to you and your friend.”
“You’re delusional! That person died years ago,” he hissed. His hands flew upward, before he stormed out of the room with an exasperated huff.
I turned toward Virnt, frowning. “With everything going on, I don’t appreciate the attempt to gaslight me. I know that was him. What happened?”
“A single-minded focus on bringing back that friend,” the Tilfish sighed. “It’s a long story. I apologize for his behavior. I assure you, I have no intentions of violating your autonomy, or doing anything other than helping you acclimate.”
“I feel half-human at best,” I groaned. “You’ve got to make some changes.”
“We can make improvements. Give it a few days to see what you adjust to, and what’s vital to enter in; the only features missing are things that don’t add much to the human experience. You can choose to end this at any time, but what’s the harm in giving it a shot? What do you say?”
I mulled it over, circling back to how it’d felt when my brain gave out; I was the only being that could describe what it was like on the other side. After a short duration of having returned to the physical world, being shut down was a frightening prospect. It wasn’t like I’d expected to wake back up, but this was a second chance that could also be given to many others. Why would I waste a chance to help humanity, and to see what the world had become? Others would suffer as I was now, if I wasn’t the one willing to stick it out and iron out the rough edges. This might be opening Pandora’s Box, but as Virnt pointed out, it wasn’t like it could be sealed shut again.
Someone will have to be the guinea pig, but maybe I can steer this technology toward being a force for positive change. It is remarkable how far we’ve come in such a short time.
“Well, I would like to hear what’s become of humanity, and frankly, how the hell we managed to survive. Things looked pretty bleak in my last days,” I responded aloud. “I’d also like to hear all of your reasons for reviving me. That implied there were quite a few, and I want all your cards on the table.”
“Not getting anything by you, am I?” The Tilfish’s mandibles clacked, apparently a laughing gesture. His compound eyes focused on me. “One thing at a time. There was a lot that happened, or was discovered, after your…untimely demise. For starters, we learned you humans were hardly the only omnivores.”
That got my unyielding attention, as I couldn’t believe what I heard. “What?!”
“…yeah. The Federation ‘cured’ any meat-eaters, which means they genetically installed allergies to animal flesh, and then overhauled their culture to fit their ideology. My species is one of the former omnivores, and I chose to go back to it since I moved to Earth as soon as I reached adulthood. I sort of have an obsession with humans and how you work.”
“Um, noted.” I took a moment to digest what he just said; somehow, being talked about like nothing more than machinery wasn’t the most shocking element. I’d have to get used to that, at any rate, since I was a literal machine now. “They hated omnivores. They…wanted us dead for being predators. Oh God, did they cure humanity?!”
“What? No! It was more that it proved your buddy Isif’s side of things. Their starvation attempts went far beyond you and the Arxur—you were just the failures. I mean, they did try to cure some abducted humans in the mid-twentieth century—”
“I beg your pardon?!”
“Don’t worry, the Farsul failed for centuries because they couldn’t figure out B12 deficiency. Oh, and to be clear, they targeted real herbivores too. You should see what the Venlil look like now that humanity uncrippled them. They’re quite the opposite of the skittish species you knew! Would you like to see a picture of Tarva’s unmodded daughter?”
The gears in my head were grinding to a halt, as the information overload was beating me down. “Yeah. Sure. Why the fuck not?”
Virnt handed me a holopad, revealing an image of a much older Governor Tarva; her snout fur was turning white. The human she was with made me do a double take, as I recognized a graying Ambassador Noah Williams cozied up next to her*.* That made me re-evaluate exactly why Tarva had requested the astronaut who made first contact as our ambassador, despite how nervous she’d been around him in the initial stages. I didn’t know if robots could get whiplash, but I was definitely feeling it. My focus shifted to two fully grown children, one human and one…Venlil? The young female had a nose on her snout, and was wearing running shoes at the end of perfectly straight legs.
“Ah, send the Governor and the Ambassador my regards,” I managed. “If it wouldn’t weird them out too much. I…I would love to get in touch.”
Virnt took his holopad back, compound eyes gleaming. “You’ll be able to contact anyone you like. Sorry for giving you ‘robot whiplash,’ Elias; just trying to fill you in. Long story, we found out that, that the Feds were hiding their true power to appear weak, and were colluding with the Arxur to keep the war going forever. Humanity fought to get an alliance, and with lots of help, took the conspiracy down. The end!”
“Right…so we won. We took down the Federation. Then what?”
“The Federation splintered into many groups. Humanity leads a group of eighty-odd species called the Sapient Coalition, trying to plant the seeds of peace and equality. However, we…we presently need help from the other parties, to stand with us. Not to alarm you, but there seems to be a malevolent entity just outside our space, and our clashes with them don’t bode well.”
A sense of dread festered within my mind, an all too familiar sensation. “Who exactly is this malevolent entity?”
“We don’t know; they shoot everything that moves, and we think they perpetrated a genocide against another predator species’ homeworld. I’ll get you briefed on specifics, but it’s bad news. So we need everyone, from the neutral Shield, the maligned-but-reformed Arxur, and the predator-hating Federation-lite to team up. That's the main reason the UN wants you back in the game.”
I pointed a finger at my chest, scoffing. “What on Earth does that have to do with me?”
“You have goodwill with just about everyone, including the Arxur, you’re used to assuaging predator fears, and you’re practiced at getting help in impossible circumstances. Elias, you were a diplomat that wanted peace, but made the hard decisions.”
“I am a cyborg replica of myself, and you think anyone would want to parlay with me, in this state?”
“It’ll be tough for the Fed loyalists to worry about your instincts, when you don’t eat and can’t feel hunger.”
“The Federation thinks hunting is hardwired into our brains, Virnt. This is all too much. I…I want to be alone. Please.”
The Tilfish patted my hand with a grasper, before moving away. “Of course. Take all the time you need; think it through. Let yourself get accustomed to everything I threw at you. I’ll be a short scuttle away.”
As soon as the insectoid departed from the room, I searched for anything to cover my eyes, ensuring that I could see only shadows. The changes since my timeframe of reference were drastic, though there were a few things I could take solace in. Humanity finding friends and a place in the galaxy, as well as vanquishing the immediate threats of bigotry, were positives. The fact that Chief Hunter Isif had let Earth return to full autonomy, and succeeded in his ideals of reforming the Arxur, meant that my deathbed wish had come true. It was peace between the Dominion and preyfolk, but it was understandable that there wasn’t acceptance or immediate forgiveness.
The dagger to my heart was hearing of a new war, the anti-predator madness starting all over again. I hadn’t been able to fully spare Earth, despite my best efforts to make us palatable to the Federation maniacs. If this was a do-over at keeping my people safe, before this war spilled onto our doorstep, I would give it my best. However, with how strained my sanity was right now, I hoped that I could hold onto my sense of self. With no wild claims to distract me, I fell into taking inventory of everything that was missing. There was no feeling from where my tongue rested against the roof of my mouth, no scents in the air, and an absolute stillness where my stomach should be rising or falling.
Like Virnt so aptly mentioned, I had no feelings of hunger or fullness at all, because the only insides I had now were metal rods and wires. My hands snatched the pillow with the last semblance of control, and I screamed—perhaps hoping to run my voice ragged, like a human would, but that was ineffectual as well. With attempts to regain any sense of normalcy or being alive rebuffed, I fell into a defeated, tormented silence.
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2024.05.10 13:00 ColumbianGeneral Shade Stalkers (Prologue)

Alright, my first ever fic. Been a long time lurker here and this is my first time taking writing seriously and wanted to see how it goes. Critique until your heart is content. Also wanted to say that life is very busy. Job, family, I’m sure you know. And as much as I currently plan to continue this, for my own sake, because I do want to get into the world of creative writing, I can not make any guarantees as to when or if. Also future updates may still have “prologue” in the title, not sure for how long but I did have an outline for a proper story, however I found myself enjoying just laying out the world and characters too much so the prologue phase is just us exploring the setting.
Special thanks to SP15 for the wonderful universe he’s created, a lot of this takes inspiration from his patreon side stories such as Human Exterminators 1-2, Venlil Foster, etc. and thanks to u/still_performance_39 and u/MessyGuy01 for their wonderful works that inspired me to try my hand at creative writing!
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Memory Transcription Subject: Katamiri, Fissan chief exterminator of Spirefin Bay.
Date [Standardized Human Time]: November 2, 2139
It was abundantly clear that they were very different from the Arxur, rumors tend to spread fast in a small and isolated town, ranging everything from “it’s all a ruse” to some bumpkin claiming they had mind control powers. I, however, took a bit of a fascination with them, never believing we’d see one in person, not that we wanted to. Most took to the internet to scrape up whatever they could find, much of it being old articles about their wars and self annihilation. Though apparently the latter wasn’t true so then what was?
In truth, it was a single ship, with a crew of two, no weapons just observation instruments. If they had come with malicious intentions then why send… that?
Tarva, eventually, came on broadcast to declare their peaceful intentions. Not too long after and one of the two astronauts was invited to give a brief speech. We didn’t know what they looked like still and we weren’t getting any answers with that vac suit. We didn’t know what kind of words to expect either. Ineligible grunts and growls? A prophecy of our impending doom? Some half-baked offering of friendship using big, awkwardly strung together, words that they learned the day prior to pass off as both friendly and intelligent? After all what could a predator say? The Arxur never communicated with us, or themselves in any meaningful way, and it’s not like I was getting any answers from the local Shade Stalkers.
“To the wonderful peoples of the Venlil Republic and all of their friends, I stand before you on behalf of the good people of Earth! For millennia we have gazed upon the stars longing to be among them, longing to know what or who is out there…”
His words were… eloquent. They were nothing at all of what I expected. Clearly coming from a being with a high emotional and social intelligence.
“… together we’d like to sow the seeds of friendship, and plow a path forward so that we may grow alongside the greater galactic community…”
If you closed your eyes and ignored the fact that they were predators you’d be forgiven for forgetting that they were. I don’t remember all of that astronauts speech, though I do remember how I felt. When that astronaut spoke many of us may have heard him, but I listened. I was impressed by what I heard, it was genuine.
Then came the empathy tests, they were tests set to our standard of empathy yet they passed with ease. And not long after that came the exchange program. A chance to talk with, but not have to look at, a real living sapient predator. To some the allure was overwhelming, they were an anomaly of the most extreme caliber, their existence alone dismantled so many theories we believed to be true about evolution and life as we know it. A sapient predator who somehow achieved empathy, then global unity? And then after that, FTL? Up until now, no one other than the Kolashians and Farsul could boast about the invention so I found myself highly impressed.
I’d have jumped at the chance to join too, as one of our interns did, but being second in command of the local exterminator office, it wouldn’t bode well for my future, especially not if I ever wanted to stay in Kavithi’s good graces. A hard and zealous Krakotl, he scolded our intern, who got accepted into the exchange program, until she was a puddle of flesh and sobs. A man who prided himself as the one true protector of Spirefin Bay. Most exterminators would scoff at the thought of being “promoted” to chief exterminator just to get sent to a small and isolated town in the middle of nowhere, [0.3 hours] away from the region of perpetual twilight and [1.8 hours] drive from the nearest other settlement, but he took the responsibility with pride. Some of us wondered what he did to get sent here, must have been a form of punishment, but if it was, he never knew or perhaps cared.
Spirefin Bay, so apply named for its inland bay leading to the sea and the beautiful yet haunting Spirefin that lazed about in its shallows. Holding their long and thin iridescent phthalo green dorsal fin above the water nonchalantly for [hours]. Never knew much about it, or what it even looked like below the waterline, none of the locals did either, we never dared to go near the waters edge, but there it would wade, dorsal fin catching the rays of our star, so low to the horizon. If I had to guess, we were probably one of the closest settlements to the twilight region, maybe even the closest, which would answer why we were so unheard of. So close that during Skalgas final wobble our star flirted with the horizon and we were at dusk. Catch a bad patch of weather during this time and you’d believe we were on the planets dark side.
No one had any idea of when, how, or why someone would start a settlement here. But here we were. The locals held so much pride about our unique geography.
Nice, quiet and peaceful, a small community of around two hundred herd members strong. Completely self reliant for its own food and resources so we didn’t care that our spaceport, if you could even call it that, was a repurposed abandoned rubber factory that could only support the smallest of orbital cargo shuttles, not that it saw much use either. We didn’t care that our high speed rail terminus only sees use twice a year, and we didn’t care that our exterminators office was a small refurbished building that was once used as a money laundering business. We liked it that way. Everyone knew one another and crime was basically non existent out side of a few instances of petty theft, gambling, and drunken disorderly conduct.
Then they came. Refugees from Earth. There weren’t many, a total of five, one individual and one family, initially wound up here. Kavithi was livid but our police chief was insistent on turning a blind eye. Police Chief Feaden, adhered to the discipline of deescalation and didn’t want to wind up as the one who started a confrontation with these predators. Besides, these creatures were quite unique, especially when being compared to the likes of the solitary Arxur.
Highly social pack hunters, they subscribed to the one true trait that made a herd a herd, a society a society, and a people a people. They understood community, both what it was and its significance, with an emphasis on the family structure.
Perhaps there isn’t so big of a difference between a herd and a pack.
Maybe it’s just the solitary ones we should be mindful of?
They quickly proved themselves, taking up jobs around Spirefin and adhering to their labor. Even going so far as to join in on community events and setting up stalls during our annual festival. The Voronin family’s tomato stand earned the desire from many of the locals. Very slowly they grew on some of the community even with their odd habits, such as their affinity of the water, often even swimming in the bay itself! They proved they had a good nature somewhere in them but this mattered none to Kavithi.
“Don’t go out looking for a fight” Feaden would say to him, “If they cause any trouble, and by trouble I mean minor disturbances, then you report to me, do not make a mountain out of a Sivkit borrow. We have no idea what their temperament is like or what they may do when they feel threatened or insulted and I will not have you testing the limits of their instincts.”
Normally it was the exterminator chief barking orders at the police but Feaden never saw it that way, the two of them were constantly at odds but to our surprise Kavithi kept his composure, often times just venting his frustrations toward us. “Watch and scribe every single thing they do. I want to know everywhere they go, everyone they interact with! I want to know exactly where their feet are on this planet at any given time! If they have a food allergy or a hangnail I Want To Know About It!”
He became increasingly paranoid, going so far as to suggest we should wiretap their living spaces, this earned not only disapproval from our chief of police but from me and the mayor as well, he grew distant with me after that, as if our trust was falling apart because I dared to challenge his ideas over basic decency.
His paranoia didn’t subside when he discovered that our young Venlil intern girl, who had undermined him and kept to the exchange program, despite his protesting, was the reason why one of these humans moved into our small town. We were expecting more shouting from him and another young Grithilyn in a puddle of tears again but it never came. He slowly shut his self out of our lives as if we were conspiring against him. He was quiet at meetings and stopped doing work for the public. We were planning on cheering him up with a surprise “you’re a wonderful boss” party at the office!
perhaps it would have worked, yet…
The news of the Kolashians betrayal and the Krakotl’s former omnivory broke out [0.5 weeks] prior, he became a recluse. No longer quiet in meetings but now completely absent. [1 week] went by, then [2 weeks], Feaden sent searches to his residence but they turned up empty. With no one in charge entropy slowly started rooting itself into our ranks, employees showing up late or leaving early, missing items from the supply closet, some taking extra time on their lunch break or just not coming back at all. I had to do something and as second in command I took up his mantle.
Usually a promotion is done by a higher ranking exterminator, normally from another office, but when you’re this far out of the way in some small backwater that hardly anyone had ever heard of, my promotion was nothing more than a quick discussion with our police chief. I contacted outside members of the guild to see if this was eligible as a legitimate promotion and seemingly, not wanting to waste their time, agreed it was, thus I became chief of the Spirefin Bay exterminators.
Over the course of the next full year our community all watched the lies and treachery of the old Federarion crumble. And the scattered and betrayed remnants formed members of this new Sapient Coalition.
It was nice at first, being a part of history in the making, a part of a new order who valued transparency and honesty above all else, then the troubling changes started.
It started with Dayside city allowing humans among their exterminators. At first I found it quite admirable for a predatory species to recognize the threat that feral predators displayed to the civilized people of the galaxy, wanting to protect and preserve sapients, but I was wrong.
The changes started slow, at first it was the banning of immolating predator pups, a strange rule but understandable, the humans probably felt sympathy for the younglings being family oriented predators themselves. Then a new department, headed by the humans, was incorporated called “forensics?” Apparently the humans had the gall to suggest that us prey would commit heinous acts of murder against one another, even going so far as to suggest that one such Venlil both killed and ate part of his victims.
Must be a concept that the humans have to struggle with back on Earth. It has to be a difficult life knowing that you’re among a populace whose predator diseased would both kill and then eat you.
A predator with predator disease, now that’s a terrifying thought, how the civil humans survive day to day on Earth is beyond me.
It only escalated from there. Predator disease facilities started to be repurposed and some outright shut down! What were these humans doing?
Sure, they may not have a killing instinct, as they’ve suggested from the very beginning, but now I see, they are still a threat. Not a violent one like the Arxur, but their ideas were a danger to our very way of life and to our culture.
Freeing predator diseased patients? Not killing predators and then burning away their taint but instead relocating them to their natural habitat in a practice known as “animal control”? I had hoped governor Veln would bring some sanity back to Skalga and for a short time it seemed like he was, then the lid blew off his latest controversy, he’s allowing the distribution of lab grown meat in the human refugee centers! Has everyone lost their mind!? Sure the new humans brought about reforms I could get behind, transparency and restoring the buried history among all races of the SC, sure, but if this is the cost, I’m not sure if I’m on board.
As I was lost in my fuming thoughts I saw the silhouette of a man approaching the front door. Hyuna was doing public service work thus I was working as receptionist. Not like I was needed elsewhere in this quiet town. As he neared the door I could make out his details, a human. With the build of a barrel, and a dark mane and beard to match. The one man on Skalga who made me long for a Nevok’s company.
Oh and I thought this shift was going to be gentle with me.
I let out a long, deep sigh,
”Isaac…”
Of the few humans in our settlement he was by far the most controversial, so very unapologetic about his interests. The man was predator diseased, unfortunately I couldn’t call him that, not anymore, thanks to the humans and their reforms. Oddly enough he wasn’t a refugee either, he was the sixth human inhabitant here, having moved in after the Battle of Earth. He was usually cordial with the locals and police, it was just us exterminators that he gave a hard time to. The troubles began when our newest hire, a young Venlil named Narn, spotted him walking near the abandoned part of town holding what he described as a “suspicious bag”.
*Everything was suspicious to him. *
Kavithi, hearing of this, decided this the opportunity to make his presence known to the new arrival, and to let him know of how “things were run in ‘his’ town.”
It did not go according to his plan.
When asked what was in the bag he pridefully replied, “ ‘tis the souls of the unborne o’ course”.
I watched the ordeal through the live feed body cameras, quite a few of us at the local guild did, if only I were in charge then. I knew immediately what kind of man this was…
A professional smart-ass…
This of course left Kavithi and his, eager to please, ‘lapdog’, Narn, in a bit of both worry and confusion. When prodded further for details he presented the duo with his bag as if for offering.
They were eggs.
Narn reached behind his back for his flamethrower, of course it was a trainee model that would only shoot a skin and eye irritating foam, new hires aren’t allowed the real deal. “Where in all of the hells of the universe did you acquire those eggs human?!” Kavithi squawked. “And most importantly…”, Kavithi said in a much calmer and slower tone, adjusting his body camera in order to focus on Isaac’s face, “tell me, in slow detail, what you plan on doing with those eggs.”
The rest of us in the office leaned in close to the monitor.
Isaac puffed out his chest, making a decree in the Krakotl way, “Well… ya see…” he pursed his lips for a moment as if in contemplation, before parting them with a loud inhale, “I was thinking of taking ‘em home and, ya know, as one does, shoving them up my ass!”
He then proceeded to start flapping his elbows and prancing about while making a clucking noise, claiming, “I really wanna get the feel of what it’s like to be a mother hen ya know!”
Behind the monitor, we couldn’t help our bouts of laughter. Any thought of helping Kavithi wavered when Narn haphazardly started spraying foam in, quite literally, every general direction of Isaac, only to coat himself and Kavithi with the irritant. Kavithi, clawing on all fours still tried to muster his courage, “I demand to know where those eggs came from”, but this mattered none as any attempt to communicate with Isaac was simply interrupt with even louder…
”mother hen noises”.
If only I knew how much trouble he would bring to the rest of us. Our guilds relationship with him was, rocky. Whenever a member of the guild, with the exception of Grithilyn, would approach him his demeanor would change, taking on the aura of a total wiseass. Though I had thought, at least I’m hoping, he was starting to warm up to me.
“Kat! My favorite unicorn gal! Why the long face?”
ugh, never mind.
“You know you don’t have to be an asshole all the time.”
submitted by ColumbianGeneral to NatureofPredators [link] [comments]

2024.05.09 16:31 jimbozak The MTFP 2024 Election Guide

Heading into the 2024 election, Montana voters have the task of selecting from more than 60 candidates to fill 14 Montana-specific federal and state offices — not to mention picking from among the 300-plus candidates running for positions in the state Legislature.
That can be a baffling number of names to track even for voters who diligently follow political news. This digital guide, a project of the nonpartisan Montana Free Press newsroom, is an effort make sure basic information is available, so voters have the opportunity to cast informed votes.
The 2024 primary election, where voters will pick each political party's nominee to advance to the General Election, will be held Tuesday, June 4. The 2024 general election will be held Tuesday, Nov. 5.
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CANDIDATES HEADING INTO JUNE 4, 2024, PRIMARY
U.S. Senate
Brad Johnson (R)
Tim Sheehy (R)
Charles Walkingchild (R)
Jon Tester* (D)
Michael Hummert (D)
Sid Daud (L)
Robert Barb (G)
Michael Downey (G)
US HOUSE DISTRICT 1
Ryan Zinke* (R)
Mary Todd (R)
Monica Tranel (D)
Dennis Hayes (L)
Ernie Noble (L)
US HOUSE DISTRICT 2
Elsie Arntzen (R)
Kyle Austin (R)
Ken Bogner (R)
Troy Downing (R)
Ric Holden (R)
Joel Krautter (R)
Denny Rehberg (R)
Ed Walker (R)
Stacy Zinn (R)
Ming Cabrera (D)
John Driscoll (D)
Kevin Hamm (D)
Steve Held (D)
STATE OFFICIALS
GOVERNOR
Greg Gianforte* (R)
Tanner Smith (R)
Ryan Busse (D)
Jim Hunt (D)
Kaiser Leib (L)
SECRETARY OF STATE
Christi Jacobsen* (R)
Jesse Mullen (D)
John Lamb (L)
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Austin Knudsen* (R)
Logan Olson (R)
Ben Alke (D)
SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
Sharyl Allen (R)
Susie Hedalen (R)
Shannon O'Brien (D)
STATE AUDITOR
James Brown (R)
John Jay Willoughby (R)
John Repke (D)
MONTANA SUPREME COURT
Jerry Lynch
Doug Marshall
Cory Swanson
STATE SUPREME COURT (SEAT 3)
Katherine Bidegaray
Jerry O'Neil
Dan Wilson
CLERK OF THE STATE SUPREME COURT
Bowen Greenwood* (R)
Jason Ellsworth (R)
Erin Farris-Olsen (D)
Jordan Ophus (D)
Roger Roots (L)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION
SEAT 2
Kirk Bushman (R)
Brad Molnar (R)
Susan Bilo (D)
SEAT 3
Rob Elwood (R)
Suzzann Nordwick (R)
Jeff Welborn (R)
Leonard Williams (D)
SEAT 4
Jennifer Fielder* (R)
MONTANA STATE LEGISLATURE CANDIDATES LOCATED ON MTFP 2024 ELECTION GUIDE PAGE
* = Incumbent
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
BALLOT INITIATIVES
Issue votes can be placed on the November General Election ballot either by referral from the Legislature or by citizen initiative when backers clear voter signature-gathering thresholds.
As of May 1, no issues had qualified for the 2024 ballot, though several, including an issue that would enshrine abortion rights in the Montana Constitution and two others that would adjust how the state's elections are conducted, have been cleared for signature gathering.
To qualify their initiatives for the 2024 ballot, backers must submit enough signatures to county election administrators by June 21, 2024. A complete list of proposed 2024 initiatives and their status is available on the Montana Secretary of State's website.
OTHER BALLOT ITEMS
June primary and November general election ballots may also include other items such as county commission races, depending on where in the state you live. June 2024 ballots will also ask voters to whether they wish to set up local government study commissions to review the structure of their city and county governments.
COMMON VOTING QUESTIONS
WHEN ARE MONTANA’S 2024 ELECTIONS?
Voters will pick which candidates advance to the November general election in the June primary, which is scheduled for Tuesday, June 4. Voters will pick the candidates who will ultimately fill each office on the ballot in the November election, which is set for Tuesday, Nov. 5.
WHO RUNS MONTANA’S ELECTIONS?
Montana elections are administered at the county level. The process is overseen by county clerks and election administrators, who help to train and monitor the volunteer election judges that staff the polls. Ballots are typically processed and counted at central county locations, with the results reported to the Montana secretary of state’s office via a statewide software system called ElectMT.
Once polls close, the secretary of state’s office provides results through its website. The state-level office also provides guidance to local election administrators to ensure compliance with state election laws. Additionally, enforcing compliance with some laws governing political campaigns, particularly those involving campaign finance, falls to a separate office known as the Commissioner of Political Practices.
DO I NEED TO BE REGISTERED IN ORDER TO VOTE?
Yes. If you’re unsure about your registration status, you can check it through the Montana secretary of state's My Voter Page. You can register to vote by stopping by your county election office any time during regular business hours to pick up an application. After you’ve filled it out, you’ll need to get it back to your county election office by mail or in person (the latter option is strongly recommended close to Election Day to ensure your application is received in time). If you do present your application in person, you’ll have to provide a photo ID or the last four digits of your Social Security number. If you happen to be applying for a Montana driver’s license or identification card before the election, you can register to vote at the same time.
CAN I REGISTER TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY?
Yes. The state Legislature has sought to enact an earlier registration deadline, but under a March 2024 ruling by the Montana Supreme Court, same-day voter registration remains legal in Montana. Residents can register to vote or update their voter registration at their county’s election office prior to 8 p.m. on Election Day.
DOES MONTANA HAVE VOTER ID REQUIREMENTS?
Yes, you will be required to present identification when voting at the polls. However, under the Montana Supreme Court’s March ruling, changes made to those requirements by the 2021 Legislature remain blocked. The current forms of identification voters can use at the polls are a current Montana driver’s license, state-issued photo ID, tribal or military photo ID, a U.S. passport or a student ID. If you don’t have a photo ID, you can use a utility bill, a bank statement, a voter confirmation card or any other government document that shows your name and address.
ARE THERE SITUATIONS WHERE I WOULDN'T BE ELIGIBLE TO VOTE?
According to state law, you can't vote if you'll be under age 18 on Election Day, are not a U.S. citizen, or have lived in Montana less than 30 days. Convicted felons who are currently incarcerated in a penal facility and people whom judges have ruled to be of unsound mind are also ineligible to vote. Otherwise, you're good to go.
CAN I VOTE ONLINE?
No, that’s not an option in Montana.
CAN I VOTE BY MAIL?
Yes, you can sign up as an absentee voter by checking a box on your voter registration form. If you’re already registered to vote, you can fill out a separate form and submit it to your county election office.
If you’re registered as an absentee voter, a ballot should be mailed to you a few weeks in advance of each election day. You can make sure your address is current via the My Voter page. County election officials are slated to mail ballots to voters for the June 2024 primary election May 10.
You can return ballots by mail, or drop them off in person at your county’s election office. Either way, the election office must receive your ballot by 8 p.m. on Election Day in order to count it.
HOW DO I VOTE IN PERSON?
If you plan to vote at the polls, just be sure you know where your polling location is and head there between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. on Election Day. You'll need to provide a photo ID and sign the precinct register, at which point you’ll get your ballot and be directed to a voting booth. If you have any technical questions or run into any problems, the election judges at your polling place should be able to help you.
I HAVE A FRIEND OR FAMILY MEMBER WHO ISN'T ABLE TO DROP OFF HIS OR HER MAIL-IN BALLOT. CAN I DO IT FOR THEM?
Yes, you can. The Montana Legislature did make some changes to ballot collection laws in 2021 related to paid ballot collection, those changes have also been blocked by the Montana Supreme Court.
WHO SHOULD I VOTE FOR?
That’s your call, not ours. We hope the information we present on this guide is helpful as you make that decision for yourself, though.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thank you, MTFP for providing an excellent resource for Montana voters! Be well, be kind, work hard, keep in touch. Happy Politics!
MontanaPolitics Links:
Voter registration deadlines:
Check your voter status here: My Voter Page
Useful Knowledge:
Greg Gianforte Money Profile • OpenSecrets
Sen. Jon Tester - Campaign Finance Summary • OpenSecrets
Officeholders List Montana • OpenSecrets
Officeholders (Other Offices) List Montana • OpenSecrets
submitted by jimbozak to MontanaPolitics [link] [comments]

2024.05.08 19:38 HomelessMudWrestler New throttle sticking and ride questions.

New throttle sticking and ride questions.
Recently removed the governor on a Coleman B200RSV with a predator 224 swap, and installed NIBBI carb if that helps, and initially had NIBBI throttle cable too but it was way too long and couldn’t be adjusted enough.
Any recommendations for stopping new throttle from sticking? I have a NIBBI tube with those like 4 notches inside. It seems like the perfect length just enough for the slide to close all the way, and there’s a seemingly appropriate amount of free play before it engages. But when I pull the throttle at all barely any - full throttle it sticks there until I push it back manually. Any possible suggestions?
On how it’s riding, since I fully removed the governor, put in new aluminum flywheel (came with new spark plug), and new NIBBI carb, I don’t really notice any difference in the ride at all. If anything it even felt a bit more responsive with the old carb and just zip tied control arm.
Maybe I was just getting a lot of power already between the zip tie, torque converter, etc and just expected a noticeable difference in the carb upgrade alone. Haven’t taken it on a full ride yet so I haven’t really seen any big changes in RPM’s at all either, maybe that’ll change.
Any feedback appreciated.
submitted by HomelessMudWrestler to minibikes [link] [comments]

2024.05.07 14:12 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket, including positioning analysis on EURUSD, GOLD, SPX and QQQ

ANALYSIS:
DATA LEDE:
MARKETS:
FX:
EARNINGS:
DISNEY:
DDOG - Beat and raise quarter. Was a strong quarter. Down partly because president to step down by year end.
CROX
ROK
PLTR: Overall solid except billings miss. Raised guidance narrowly. It was just a simple situation of growth slowed, and set up was tough.
AXON earnings: - very strong
MAG7:
OTHER COMPANIES:
OTHER NEWS:
submitted by TearRepresentative56 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

2024.05.07 14:11 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 07.05, including positioning analysis on SPX, QQQ and Gold.

For more of my daily analysis and summaries, please join Tradingedge and Swingtrading
ANALYSIS:
DATA LEDE:
MARKETS:
FX:
EARNINGS:
DISNEY:
DDOG - Beat and raise quarter. Was a strong quarter. Down partly because president to step down by year end.
CROX
ROK
PLTR: Overall solid except billings miss. Raised guidance narrowly. It was just a simple situation of growth slowed, and set up was tough.
AXON earnings: - very strong
MAG7:
OTHER COMPANIES:
OTHER NEWS:
For more of my daily analysis and summaries, please join Tradingedge
submitted by TearRepresentative56 to swingtrading [link] [comments]

2024.05.07 14:10 TearRepresentative56 I'm a professional trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 07.05 including positioning analysis on SPX, QQQ and Gold

For more of my daily analysis and summaries, please join Tradingedge
ANALYSIS:
DATA LEDE:
MARKETS:
FX:
EARNINGS:
DISNEY:
DDOG - Beat and raise quarter. Was a strong quarter. Down partly because president to step down by year end.
CROX
ROK
PLTR: Overall solid except billings miss. Raised guidance narrowly. It was just a simple situation of growth slowed, and set up was tough.
AXON earnings: - very strong
MAG7:
OTHER COMPANIES:
OTHER NEWS:
For more of my daily analysis and summaries, please join Tradingedge
submitted by TearRepresentative56 to u/TearRepresentative56 [link] [comments]

2024.05.07 14:08 TearRepresentative56 Everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket including positional analysis on SPX, QQQ, GOLD and EURUSD 07/05

For more of my daily analysis and summaries, please join Tradingedge
ANALYSIS:
DATA LEDE:
MARKETS:
FX:
EARNINGS:
DISNEY:
​
DDOG - Beat and raise quarter. Was a strong quarter. Down partly because president to step down by year end.
CROX
ROK
PLTR: Overall solid except billings miss. Raised guidance narrowly. It was just a simple situation of growth slowed, and set up was tough.
AXON earnings: - very strong
MAG7:
OTHER COMPANIES:
OTHER NEWS:
For more of my daily analysis and summaries, please join Tradingedge
​
submitted by TearRepresentative56 to TradingEdge [link] [comments]

2024.05.04 20:11 Petragor07 The 13th Predator (Skaven crossover) - Part 2

Memory transcription subject: Governor Tarva of the Venlil Republic
Date: [REDACTED]
It was perhaps a bit early to say, but I thought first contact was going very well.
The newcomers, apparently belonging to a species known as the Skaven, watched in wonder as we toured around the capital, clearly having never seen anything like it. The finely dressed one, whom I had correctly assumed to be the leader of the pair, was named Krelk, and proved a most attentive student. Not only did he listen carefully to my explanations of the workings of the Venlil Republic, our Arxur enemies and the Federation at large, he also frequently inquired for further details about various things, such as other federation species, the diagnosis and treatment of predator disease, and our military capabilities following the recent Arxur incursion. Kam had to object to answering the last one out of principle, but I was just glad to see the Skaven explorer so curious about us.
His companion however, was much more reserved. Krelk had introduced him as Znich, although the Skaven himself had barely said a word since disembarking from the spacecraft. I found myself feeling a little sorry for the poor fellow. Here he was, in an alien city, on an alien planet, talking aliens whose existence he only learned of a few hours ago. Who wouldn’t have a hard time adjusting? I resolved to strike up a conversation with him, maybe that would get him out of his shell.
As we entered my personal groundcar, Kam at the wheel with me beside him and our guests sitting in the back, I turned my head slightly to address the meek Skaven. “So, Znich, was it? You’ve been pretty quiet, why don’t you tell me a little bit about yourself?” Znich’s body immediately tensed up, and seemed to sink into the seat, in an attempt to appear smaller. He managed to stammer out “W-w-what would you-you l-like to know, oh esteemed governor-master?”
Oh no, here I was trying to put him at ease, and instead I had put him on the spot! How was he supposed to come up with a personal anecdote at a time like this! I needed to salvage this quickly, maybe a more specific question? “You don’t have to… just Tarva is fine, please. And don’t worry, I just wanted to get to know you a little better is all! For example… oh! What is your favorite food?”
That seemed to calm him down a bit, his body language getting more relaxed as he pondered the question. “My-my favorite food? Hmm… well… Infant I suppose.”
Before I could fully process what he had just said, I heard a meaty thwack from the back seat. From my position in the front, I didn’t see exactly where it came from, but my train of thought was once again interrupted as Znich spoke again. “Infant Carrots that is! Plucked-Harvested from the ground before fully grown! Delicacy!”
Krelk quickly interjected “You must excuse-forgive us for any misunderstandings that may occur during our conversations, oh Mighty… Tarva. While your translation technology is indeed very impressive, it-it perhaps struggles a bit with the finer points of queekish, yes-yes?”
I took a moment to consider Krelk’s words. I didn’t know that much about translation technology, but with an entirely new language I supposed it only made sense. That would explain a lot of things, including that weird speech impediment they both seemed to have. I was going to reply, but Kam beat me to it.
“Speaking of being quiet, the governor has been talking your ears off about the federation for most of the claw now, yet you haven’t said anything about yourselves. What exactly is Skaven society like?”
Both Skaven seemed to hesitate a little, but Krelk quickly relaxed again, reclining back in his seat as he answered. “Excellent question, oh most-wise advisor. Skaven-kind is composed of numerous clans, the most influential of which earn-take a seat on the Council of Thirteen, where they chart the path to glory-greatness!”
“Neat.” Kam responded tersely as he kept one eye on the road and the other on our passengers. “And what exactly does ‘glory-greatness’ entail?”
“Enacting the will of the Horned Rat!” Znich blurted out, earning himself a glare from Krelk who evidently didn’t appreciate being interrupted. As the former shrunk back down into his chair, the latter once again looked at Kam and myself. “As my fool-underling so bluntly said, our lives are lived in service to our god, the Great Horned Rat. It is by his will that we rule our world, and work to cleanse it of all… predators.”
Kam still seemed a little put off by our guests, so I decided to reclaim control over the conversation. “You mentioned that all Skaven are part of a clan, what clan do you belong to?” This got both of them to perk up, and each of them pointed to a symbol inscribed on the chest of their respective suits. “We are of Clan Skryre.” Krelk announced proudly. “Biggest brains of all rats!” Znich all but shouted. This time, Krelk didn’t seem to mind the interruption, and simply continued. “We are the best-greatest inventors and engineers of all Skaven. Responsible for many wonders, such as the ship-vessel we flew here on. Masterwork, yes-yes?”
In my mind’s eye, I could still picture the ramshackle craft. The jagged metal plates, the intermittent lightning flashes, the endless smoke belching… I decided to change the subject. “Indeed… What other clans are there?”
Krelk seemed a little put off by my response, and looked out of the window disinterestedly as he spoke. “Hundreds. Too-too many to list.” His tone was dismissive, but I wasn’t going to give up that easily. “Give me the cliff notes then! Which clans are on the council for example?”
For a few seconds I thought he was ignoring my question, but after a moment's reflection he responded. “Well-well, the thirteenth seat is symbolic, reserved for Great Horned Rat. Clan Skryre is on the council of course, holding two seats. Clans Pestilens, Eshin and Moulder, also hold two seats. Clan Mors holds a single seat, and the Masterclan hold-claims three seats. For now…”
I sensed a tinge of bitterness in that last remark, but I knew better than to get involved in foreign politics and pretended not to notice. “Very interesting! Can you tell me a little bit about the clans?”
Once again our passengers hesitated, but it didn’t take long for Krelk to speak up again. “Well, Clan Moulder is in charge-command of moulding… bodies, ensuring Skaven are great-strong.”
“Ah, you have a genetics program!” I exclaimed. “That’s quite advanced!” Krelk gave me a heavy-lidded stare. “Quite. Now-now, as for Clan Pestilens…” he paused, apparently struggling to find the words, but before he could speak Znich apparently found them for him. “Well, it’s in the name-title. Pestilence."
As his superior once again stared him down, I hazarded a guess at his meaning in an attempt to rescue him. “Pestilence… you mean they specialize in diseases? Medicine and cures and such things?” Krelk quickly turned his gaze back to me and clapped his hands. “Yes-yes, exactly! You are smart-quick Tarva! As for Clan Eshin, they are masters of… information. And using that-that information to remove… predator-diseased individuals.”
Well, that made sense. Predator disease wasn’t something you wanted running rampant, so it stood to reason that those specializing in curtailing it were held in high esteem. The same was true for regular disease too.
“Finally, the Masterclan are the representatives of the strange-mystic Grey Seers, the mouths through which the Great Horned Rat whispers to us. They are much-very influential. And smug.”
Definitely some resentment there. But wait. “You didn’t mention that one clan though, Mors, right? What are they good at?” Krelk scoffed at this. “Small-minor clan. Not worth mentioning.” Apparently there was plenty of resentment to go around. I did not regret my decision to stay out of their politics. Looking out of the window, I saw that we had made a full circuit and arrived back at the hangar. Disembarking, I tried to steer the conversation into a more positive direction.
“Well, I’m certain you’ll have much to discuss with the council when you get back to them. I know I’m going to have many meetings with federation officials in my future.”
This did seem to cheer them up a little, as Krelk raised his head high. “Yes… Yes-yes! When I return with my findings, I will-will be known as greatest Skryre explorer! Greatest Skaven!” With renewed vigor he sprinted towards the Hangar, as Znich struggled to keep up. Me and Kam trailed close behind, arriving just in time to hear the horrible ship’s engines begin to cough and roar. I had to yell to be heard above the cacophony. “I hope we’ll meet again!”
Krelk laughed as he clambered onto the vessel, hanging jauntily from the hatch as the vessel began to lift off.
“Don’t fret-worry oh trusting governor! We-we will be back, and in greater numbers!”
First - Next
submitted by Petragor07 to NatureofPredators [link] [comments]

2024.05.04 19:43 relishboi Predator's Disease Chapter 29

[First] [Prev] [Next]
Memory transcription subject: Daniel Stat, human virologist
Date [Standardized human time]: August 30th, 2148
[Day 23]
The meat sizzled invitingly in the pan making my mouth water from the pleasant aroma. I haven’t eaten anything besides plants since before I was on Skalga. Silvon and Tinasi thankfully didn’t mind what I was cooking up, and I’m almost certain Tinasi has tried meat before. I had another pan simmering next to the meat with some local veggies. Both smelled incredible.
I scooped the sautéed veggies onto a plate and lightly drizzled a homemade fruity dressing on top. The red of the dressing looked nice with the orange leaves. Then I dished up the meat and took only a small portion of the salad as a side.
“Hey, Silvon!” I called, “Food’s ready!” I set the plates on the table and filled a couple of glasses with wine. “Silvvy?” there was no response. Worry rose in my chest as I walked from the table to the guest bedroom door. I gently knocked. “Silvvy, are you in there?”
There was no answer. I tried again, “Silvon?” I pressed my ear up to the door, hoping to hear her voice. “Okay, I’m coming in, hon,” I turned the knob and stepped into the room. The only light illuminating her features was from the holopad in her shaky paws. Her cheeks were streaked with tears, and she was curled up in blankets. We made eye contact, and she broke into sobs.
“Danny-” she cried. I ran to her in an instant.
“Hey, what happened?” I asked. She held out the holopad, and another round of sobs escaped her.
Dr. Silvon, we regret to inform you that your parents Nulon and Lew lost their lives last night. The suspect in question is still at large, but we have reason to believe it is you and Dr. Stat that he’s looking for. For your own safety, you have both been disallowed travel off of Leirn until the case is resolved. Funeral arrangements for the deceased will be conducted digitally.
-MFPD
I was stunned. I closed the holopad and wordlessly set it on the nightstand. “I’m sorry,” I whispered, wrapping my arms around the poor venlil, “I’m so, so sorry.”
~~~
Memory transcription subject: Jakiv, arxur scientist
Date [Standardized human time]: August 30th, 2148
[Day 23]
“And you’ve been eating?” Nuri pried as I buckled myself up in the passenger seat.
“Prophet, you sound just like Vilvit!” I remarked.
“C’mon, Jaki, answer the question,” the marsupial urged.
“Yes, I’ve been eating. I had ‘steak’ last night for dinner.”
My words lit up her face, the look she gave me was warm and inviting. I felt good saying it. “Oh I’m so glad,” Nuri grinned. “So, how was work?”
“It was fine,” I shuffled, disguising my awkwardness by adjusting my tail in the seat.
“Define fine,” Nuri set the car to autopilot and turned to face me.
“I mean fine,” I concluded.
“Jaki, I know you well enough to know ‘fine’ is how you dodge questions. What happened?”
“Nothing bad, I can assure you. I have a lot of reports to write on some new discoveries, and a few hours of microscope footage to look over.”
“Now that doesn’t just sound ‘fine’. Are you guys onto something?” she questioned.
I leaned in, whispering “Something big,” and grinned. I could see her itching for more details. The reporter couldn’t stand not knowing anything and everything about whatever interests her, and it was clear ever since the dinner party with the doctors that my lab work was very intriguing.
“Could you tell me about it?” she urged.
“Only if you can agree not to release any details. It’s all top secret.”
The marsupial held out her paw, with one of her fingers outstretched toward me, “I pinkie promise,” she stated.
“You what?”
“Just reach out your finger,” Nuri giggled. I extended one of my thumbs, the closest I had to a ‘pinkie’, and she wrapped hers around it.
“Is this another human thing?” I asked.
“Yup. It’s like an unbreakable promise,” she informed me.
“Is it ceremonial?”
“Uh, maybe? I’ve never bothered to ask any humans where their gestures come from.”
“Knowing humans, I doubt even they know,” I chuckled. The car began slowing down in front of Nuri’s house. “Hey, I thought you were taking me home?”
“Yeah, I am. You to my home,” she unbuckled and skipped out of the vehicle. I picked up a folder I set on the floor and clambered out.
The house was still messy, and the papers on the table seemed to have multiplied ten-fold since I was last here. “What are you even writing about, Nuri?” I questioned as she put all the papers into one stack to make room for my folder.
“Boring stuff. Extremism on Skalga, that whole situation in Ransu City, stuff the news is already going on about. Lucky me though, I’ve got an inside source with far more information than anyone else!” she rubbed her paws deviously. “But enough about me, what’ve you got?”
“Alright,” I set down the folder and threw it open. The first report was on the spliced venlil cells, with printed photographs of the microscope slide. “The preyshit insane yotul, no offense…”
“None taken.”
“... decided to splice human and venlil immune cells, which I couldn’t even fathom being possible, let alone yield any results,” I dug my holopad from my coat pocket and opened it to a video of the cells fighting off the rhinovirus. “But look here, the cultured cells are actually working! We’ve had weeks of zero progress, only for this sudden off-the-wall idea to just-” I gesticulated, unable to contain my excitement, “It’s revolutionary!”
“Has it been tested on people yet?” Nuri asked.
I shook my head, “No, but it will be soon. We’ve just barely gotten Governor Maulo’s permission to inject the venlil in the lab’s infirmary.”
“When is the first test?” she asked.
“Tomorrow. We’ve already got the needles prepped and ready. Hope to prophet it works.”
~~~
Memory transcription subject: Aaron Clemont, Humanity First rallier
Date [Standardized human time]: August 30th, 2148
[Day 23]
Our shuttle touched down on Leirn. Landen, Vernon, and I walked through the same terminal where the photo on Nulon’s holopad was taken. I was giddy, half because I knew this was gonna end with me behind bars, or worse, and half because I was so damn excited to finally put the Xenos in their place.
New Litsen itself was as average as a yotul town could be. Boring, primitive building styles reminiscent of remote villages on Earth. I damn near twisted an ankle on the rough cobblestone streets outside the spaceport. “Let’s check into a hotel and lie low. We’re probably wanted men by now,” I informed my cohort.
Here’s hoping anyone around here accepts physical credits. My account is probably flagged, and the cops would be able to track me through my finances. We slipped into a shitty little hotel, with a peppy receptionist who greeted us as we entered.
“We’d like a room, please,” I said.
“Of course,” she replied, digging under the counter for a key. I pulled a handful of physical credits from my pocket and set them down with a clank. She looked surprised to see them, and retrieved a separate machine to authenticate the credits.
I groaned as she took them one at a time and scanned them through the device. Finally, at last, everything was in order. “Thank you for your patience,” she chirped, handing me the room key.
We located our room and threw our luggage inside.
“Right then, let’s get looking for any leads,” I said. “Stat is almost certainly working at a lab around here. I figure if we’re doing this, let’s do it big.”
“Okay,” Vernon mumbled, scanning a map on his holopad, “There’s a place on the other side of town called Jatsen Labs. It’s the only laboratory in the city, and it’s massive.”
“The size of the place won’t be a problem, I’ve already contacted a few friends who can hook us up with some good firepower,” I smiled. “So here’s the plan boys. We’re gonna go in guns blazing, take out anyone that even thinks of trying to stop us. Locate wherever the virus research is being done, and I will handle Stat. We’ll grab as many samples of the virus as we can and start running. We’ll get it to those friends here I mentioned, and then it’s mission complete. Got it?” Both nodded.
“Good. I’m gonna go grab a drink, and get those weapons.”
~~~
Memory transcription subject: Jakiv, arxur scientist
Date [Standardized human time]: August 30th, 2148
[Day 23]
I furiously scribbled the report, it was thousands of words long, with as much detail as I could cram into it. Nuri was reading over my shoulder, occasionally commenting and helping me word things better. We made a pretty great team.
“So, when all’s said and done, what are you going to do with yourself, Jaki?” the marsupial asked as I took a break from the report.
“I’m not really sure,” I said. “I’m not exactly a citizen here. I might just go back to Wriss.” The yotul seemed to waver a little. “You okay?”
“Yeah, I’m fine,” she said, forcing a smile that I stupidly believed.
“Though I’ll admit, it was a nice little vacation here,” I chuckled. “I’m gonna miss the booze.”
“Are you gonna miss me?” she asked. I stopped, making eye contact with the marsupial.
“Well, of course,” I said. “I’ll call you and stuff.”
“Yeah?” her voice was full of longing.
“Yeah.”
“Okay,” she mumbled as I poured myself a cup of coffee.
“Right then, back to work,” I said cheerily.
~~~
The report was long finished while we sat on the couch watching a movie. We were snuggled up under a blanket, watching a mushy yotul film about a pair of lovers separated during the uplift, and individually rebelling against the feds, only to come together again in the end.
Nuri has been closer to me since I finished my work. It’s not like I minded, but it was a bit abnormal. “So, how accurate is this film?” I asked to break the silence.
“No clue, I was born after the uplift. But it does get how shitty fed life was,” she answered. I nodded, turning my attention back to the TV, idly reading the credits as they slowly rolled past.
“Are you really leaving?” Nuri asked suddenly.
I didn’t know how to answer. “I- yeah, I’ve got to. You know I’m not welcome here,” I shrugged.
“Of course you are,” her voice broke.
I hastily checked my holopad, 10 pm. “Uh- look at the time, Nuri,” I tried to change the subject and threw off the blanket. “I’ve got work tomorrow, y’know. I’ve really got to get a move on-”
She wrapped her arms around me and dug her face into my hoodie, “Please, Jaki, please don’t go,” I stood frozen unsure of what to even do. I awkwardly patted her head and felt her grip tighten.
“Why do you care so much?” I asked, more to myself than to her.
She pulled her face from my chest and locked tear-stricken eyes with me. “You’re my best friend. I can’t let you go back to living in misery and starving yourself,” Nuri stated. “But more than anything, I love having you around. I love talking to you…” I reciprocated the hug, feeling myself starting to choke up.
“I love you too, Nuri,” I replied.
“Please, stay with me, Jaki,” she begged. “Please.”
I thought about returning to Wriss, though I knew I’d hate it. I was finding Leirn more and more appealing by the second, and if I had my friend with me, I knew I’d be fine. Yeah. “I’ll stay. I’ll stay, Nuri,” I promised. I extended a thumb, and the marsupial’s tears were interrupted by giggles.
“It’s an unbreakable promise,” she stated, taking my thumb with her finger.
“Indeed,” I smiled.
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2024.05.04 04:02 Wanderhoof Old Dog, New Tricks: Old to FO, New to 76 - Thoughts after my first few hours.

This is just my hot take after playing less than 10 hours of FO:76. So, yes, it is uninformed as to the long-term, overall experience of playing FO:76. But, I felt that maybe (if this dead horse hasn't been beaten to pieces as if used by a certain governor to work out her frustrations) it would be of value to the dedicated, long-term player community to know what it is like for old to FO but new to 76 players as we take our first few steps into what could be something we love or something we only sometimes remember to play when really, really bored.
The Good:
The Bad:
The Ugly:
The Hmm... I will wait and see:
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2024.05.03 09:27 The_Way358 Essential Teachings: Open Theism, Conditional Prophecy, and True Israel

Open Theism

Open Theists believe that because God loves us and desires that we freely choose to reciprocate His love, He has made His knowledge of, and plans for, the future conditional upon our actions. Though omniscient, God does not know what we will freely do in the future. Though omnipotent, He has chosen to invite us to freely collaborate with Him in governing and developing His creation, thereby also allowing us the freedom to thwart His hopes for us. God desires that each of us freely enter into a loving and dynamic personal relationship with Him, and He has therefore left it open to us to choose for or against His will. That God changes in some respects implies that God is temporal, working with us in time. God, at least since creation, experiences duration.
We affirm that God knows all the truths that can be known, but there simply are not yet truths about what will occur in the “open,” undetermined future. Alternatively, there are such contingent truths, but these truths cannot be known by anyone, including God.
Even though God is all-powerful, allowing Him to do everything that can be done, He cannot create round squares or make 2 +2 = 5 or do anything that is logically impossible. Omniscience should be understood in a similar manner. God is all-knowing and can know all that can be known, but He cannot know the contingent future, since that too, is impossible. God knows all the possible ways the world might go at any point in time, but He does not know the one way the world will go, so long as some part of what will happen in the future is contingent.
That being said, God has flexible strategies. Though the divine nature does not change, God reacts to contingencies, even adjusting His plans, if necessary, to take into account the decisions of His free creatures. God is endlessly resourceful and wise in working towards the fulfillment of His ultimate goals. Sometimes God unilaterally decides how to accomplish these goals but He usually elicits human cooperation such that it is both God and humanity who decide what the future shall be. God’s plan was not a detailed script or blueprint, but a broad intention that allowed for a variety of options regarding precisely how His goals may be reached.
We will only briefly touch on this subject here, providing Biblical arguments in favor of the Open Theist position, but not addressing the popular counter-arguments that are usually given in response by the Classical Theist, for lack of time and space on this post. I implore the reader, however, to dedicate time to study this topic on their own, weighing the arguments in their entirety from both sides, as this is a serious issue that a person ought to confront for it affecting just about all matters of faith and practice by the implications of whatever answer one comes to concerning it.
In Genesis 22:12, when God tells Abraham to sacrifice his son Isaac, He says, "now I know that thou fearest God, seeing thou hast not withheld thy son, thine only son from me." This suggests that God did not know for certain whether or not Abraham would be willing to obey Him in this way.
In Isaiah 5:3-7, God compares Israel to a vineyard that He had planted and cared for, but which produced only bad fruit. He laments that despite all His efforts, He had expected good fruit but instead received only bad. This suggests that God did not know for certain how Israel would turn out, despite His efforts to guide and care for them.
In Exodus 32:9-14, after the Israelites had made a golden calf and worshipped it, God becomes angry and tells Moses that He will destroy the people and start over with him. However, Moses pleads with God to spare the people, saying, "Wherefore should the Egyptians speak, and say, For mischief did he bring them out, to slay them in the mountains, and to consume them from the face of the earth? Turn from thy fierce wrath, and repent of this evil against thy people." And the Lord relented from the disaster that He had spoken of bringing upon His people. This suggests that God was willing to change His mind based on Moses' argument, indicating that God did not have complete foreknowledge of the future.
In addition, God shows an emotion based on something that happened at the time of it happening. Why get mad over something you knew was going to happen forever ago?
God had the prophet Isaiah announce to King Hezekiah that he would not recover from his illness. However, Hezekiah prayed and God responded by sending Isaiah back to announce that God had changed His mind, Hezekiah would recover and not die (2 Kin. 20). Such texts reveal divine flexibility from God utilizing various ways of achieving His agenda depending upon human responses. Had Hezekiah not prayed, 15 years would not have been added to his life, and the history of the nation of Judah itself would've looked different.
And finally, in Jonah 3:4-10, when Jonah preached to the people of Nineveh that they would be destroyed in forty days, they repented and turned to God. When God saw what they did and how they turned from their evil ways, He relented and did not bring on them the destruction He had threatened. Again, this suggests that God was willing to change His mind based on the actions of the people and demonstrates that God did not have complete foreknowledge of their future decisions.
In short, the Bible shows God: changing His mind, experiencing regret, and responding to the actions of human beings. God bargains with: Noah, Jacob, and Moses; He changes His mind about destroying Nineveh, regrets making Saul King, etc. The God portrayed in the Bible just doesn't resemble the god of Classical Theism, an "unmoved mover" who acts more as a Platonic ideal and the god of the philosophers rather than that of the Scriptures.

Prophecy in the Old Testament

The great majority of Christians tend to look at the Bible's prophetic statements in terms of a one-to-one fulfillment, in which a prediction (say, a virgin birth in Isaiah 7:14) comes to full fruition in the New Testament book of Matthew. In fact, many evangelicals view this purported understanding of prophecy to be one of the stronger weapons in the Christian apologetic arsenal, almost in the way that the Periodic Table of Elements allows the chemist to predict the outcomes of chemical reactions. And indeed, there are a number of predictions in the Old Testament that function in this way, for instance the mention of Cyrus as the liberator of God's people decades before the fact.
But a careful reading and comparison with some Old Testament prophecies reveal some departures from this model. The explanation given to us as for why this sometimes happens is found in the book of Jeremiah, when God has the prophet accompany Him to watch a potter at work. After imparting to Jeremiah the illustration that the destiny of the nations are in the Potter's (God's) hands, God informs Jeremiah that certain prophetic statements carry with them a caveat: that whether or not the nations' futures conform precisely to the prophetic utterances is largely contingent on their response to the prophecy in the first place.
"At what instant I shall speak concerning a nation, and concerning a kingdom, to pluck up, and to pull down, and to destroy it; If that nation, against whom I have pronounced, turn from their evil, I will repent of the evil that I thought to do unto them. And at what instant I shall speak concerning a nation, and concerning a kingdom, to build and to plant it; If it do evil in my sight, that it obey not my voice, then I will repent of the good, wherewith I said I would benefit them."-Jeremiah 18:7-10
Repentance can alter or even abolish punishment; indifference, or worse, disobedience, can revoke blessing and invoke curses.
In Old Testament prophecies, sometimes the conditions are specified, and sometimes they are not. (The prophecy against Ninevah in Jonah is an illustration of the latter). But the interpreter can usually assume that there are contingent factors unless the prophecy is accompanied by an oath from the Lord. These utterances are unalterable, but usually not very specific. They serve the purpose of setting the parameters in which God will work to His purposes by necessary, free, and contingent means.
This approach to Old Testament prophecy is completely in keeping with the suzerain-vassal relationship the nation of Israel had to their God. Biblical prophets functioned as covenant emissaries, and at times, covenant prosecutors, in which they were commissioned to remind the people that they were in violation of the covenant and that as their suzerain, God, was completely within His rights to initiate legal proceedings and hold the people of Israel in abeyance. In fact, the book of Isaiah opens with just such a "courtroom" scene.

Prophecy in the New Testament: Have the Rules Changed?

Now we should ask whether or not we should apply the same understanding as it concerns New Testament prophecies. In short, the answer is "yes".
The structure of the apostolate found its origins in the Jewish legal system. The apostles had been given "power of attorney" to act on behalf of Christ, and it is from this that we derive legitimacy to the canon of Scripture. But the parallel between this and the Old Testament prophetic office of covenant emissary is striking. This would seem to support the notion that the rules haven't changed.
It is not a coincidence that immediately prior to Christ's prophetic discourse in Matthew 24; he reminds his Pharasaic audience of the injustices, indignities, and violent deaths suffered by the prophets of God at their hands (and by implication including himself among their number). In addition, in chapter 23:37-38 he says: "O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, thou that killest the prophets, and stonest them which are sent unto thee, how often would I have gathered thy children together, even as a hen gathereth her chickens under her wings, and ye would not! Behold, your house is left unto you desolate." Christ did in fact make a genuine offer of the kingdom to that present generation, but they "would not" (i.e., were not willing).
Not only this, but in the midst of the Olivet Discourse, Jesus adds in 24:20: "Pray that your flight will not take place in winter or on the Sabbath." In other words, contingencies, (especially the contingencies of faithful prayer), would be a factor in determination of the time of fulfillment.
There would have been an earthly kingdom of glory if the Jews had accepted their Messiah, and there would have been nations coming up to bring offerings to the Lord because of the glory shining out of Israel... but they rejected that calling.
"Therefore say I unto you, The kingdom of God shall be taken from you, and given to a nation bringing forth the fruits thereof."-Matthew 21:43
You can also look back and see that the Israelites never fully inherited all of the land that the Lord promised to give them. The Lord gave it to them, but they slowed down, compromised, and ultimately never possessed all of it. Looking back, the temporal inheritance of Canaan was a type or shadow which finds its ultimate fulfillment in the New Jerusalem. God left certain gaps like these to give us insight into what the real treasure is. Abraham, for instance, never received any land from God, even though God promised to give him the land in which he was a stranger. He was a pilgrim all the days of his life and died without having received any promise. Did God's word fail? No. Rather, the promise was greater than just a little plot in the middle east. Abraham knew that, should God lay him to rest, He would raise him up to fulfill that promise.
And this brings us to the book of Romans. Throughout the book, the apostle Paul builds up the exact argument that I make here. First, he reveals that one is not a Hebrew by blood, but a Hebrew by faith:
"For he is not a Jew, which is one outwardly; neither is that circumcision, which is outward in the flesh: But he is a Jew, which is one inwardly; and circumcision is that of the heart, in the spirit, and not in the letter; whose praise is not of men, but of God."-Romans 2:28-29
Then, in Romans 9 and 10, he shows us the fact that, in the eyes of God, literal Israel is not the seed of Israel, but rather those who are of the faith of Israel:
"Not as though the word of God hath taken none effect. For they are not all Israel, which are of Israel: Neither, because they are the seed of Abraham, are they all children: but, In Isaac shall thy seed be called. That is, They which are the children of the flesh, these are not the children of God: but the children of the promise are counted for the seed."-Romans 9:6-8
That promise was that Abraham and his Seed, who is Christ (Gal. 3:26, 29), should inherit the land (and eternal life). One could not partake of this promise simply by being a literal descendant of Abraham, as Jesus and John the Baptist made loud and clear (Luke 3:8, John 8:31-41). In order to receive the promise, or be a child of the promise, one must inherit the promise through the Seed to whom it was promised, and that Seed is Jesus. Those who are in Christ are of the Seed of Abraham, and therefore heirs.
So then, from the time the promise was made, true Israel has always been those who are of the faith of Abraham; those who were in Christ. The literal son of Abraham, Ishmael, was not heir but his son Isaac was. Jacob was an heir of the promise, but Esau was rejected. Even so, Ishmael and Esau were both literal descendants of Abraham. What was the difference? Their faith in the promised Seed by whom they would obtain the promise.
God worked with and through physical Israel, fulfilling these things in a partial and typical sense, in order to communicate to us and to them the gospel, which is much more grand than some small plot of land in the middle east and a temporal life here in this present world.
"For whatsoever things were written aforetime were written for our learning, that we through patience and comfort of the scriptures might have hope."-Romans 15:4
"For unto us was the gospel preached, as well as unto them: but the word preached did not profit them, not being mixed with faith in them that heard it."-Hebrews 4:2
"For he [Abraham] looked for a city which hath foundations, whose builder and maker is God [...] For they that say such things declare plainly that they seek a country. And truly, if they had been mindful of that country from whence they came out, they might have had opportunity to have returned. But now they desire a better country, that is, an heavenly: wherefore God is not ashamed to be called their God: for he hath prepared for them a city."-Hebrews 11:10, 14-16

The Nature of the Church

The universal Body or fellowship of Messiah was composed of all people, Jewish and Gentile, who through faith in him were regenerated by the Holy Spirit and grafted into God's family tree of salvation. Membership in the universal Body was not based on any earthly organizational affiliation but on faith in Jesus the Messiah.
The local body was the visible manifestation of the universal Body. It was a congregation of believers organized for the purpose of glorifying God through worship, instruction, accountability, fellowship, service and outreach. Whereas entrance into the universal Body was based on an act of faith, entrance into the local body was based on an act of volition in obedience to God.
The officers of the local congregation were elders and deacons, but the head to whom all were answerable was the Lord Jesus, who in turn had the Father as his Head (Acts 2:1-4, 41-42, Rom. 11:29; 12:4-13, 1 Cor. 1:2; 7:17; 11:16; 12:12-27, Eph. 1:22-23; 2:11-22; 3:10; 4:4-16; 5:23-24, Col. 1:18, 1 Tim. 3:1-13, Heb. 10:19-25; 13:7, 17).
Biblically, Israel was a nation, not a spiritual entity. As a nation of people (like any other nation of people), it contained both righteous and unrighteous. When the Bible speaks of Israel as a spiritual entity (the saved of Israel), it is referring to remnant Israel. The Church was Jews who were physically called out of the nations, but also spiritually called out from unbelieving Israel, and Gentiles who were spiritually called out of the nations to worship the God of Israel. Both spiritually called-out peoples formed one called-out people known as the Church. These called-out ones were saved by faith in the pattern of their spiritual father, Abraham (Rom. 4:11). Thus, while only some in the Church were physically Jewish, all in the Church were spiritually Jewish. They were circumcised of the heart (Rom. 2:29), the offspring of Abraham (Rom. 4:16) and citizens of Israel (Eph. 2:12; 19).
The proper understanding of Israel and the Church is not replacement theology nor separation theology. The Church did not replace national Israel (not in a one-to-one way, anyway). National Israel never was a spiritual body of people, but merely a nation of righteous and unrighteous, like other nations. God simply used that nation to be the instrument of salvation for the world by bringing the Messiah through it (Rom. 3:1-2), and since having accomplished that mission, God transferred His method of calling others to the Messiah over to the Church by giving them sole responsibility of spreading the good news (i.e., gospel). National Israel would have had the privilege of being a part of this mission, but they forfeited their right to an earthly kingdom in which they could have accomplished this through due to their own disobedience.
The Church also didn't replace remnant Israel. The apostle Paul considered himself part of remnant Israel (Rom. 11:1-5), part of Christ (Rom. 9:3), and part of the Church (Eph. 5:29-30). This shows that the Church, the Body of Christ (Messiah) and remnant Israel are synonymous. The fact that the Church was remnant Israel is evidenced by the name of the eternal home of believers (the New Jerusalem), by the gates of that home (the names of the twelve tribes of Israel), by the pillars of that home (the twelve Israelite apostles of Jesus), and by the person seated on the right hand of the Father of that home (Jesus, a King of Israel, himself an Israelite).
Through faith in Messiah, Gentile believers were no longer excluded from citizenship in true Israel, nor from the covenants of the promise (Eph. 2:12). They were grafted into the Church, an olive tree natural to Jewish people but unnatural to Gentiles. It is for this reason that Paul exhorts his Gentile readership not to be arrogant about their membership within the Church (Rom. 11:20).
A person could be part of national Israel, and yet not be part of remnant Israel. There was an Israel within Israel, a subset of physical-and-spiritual Jewish people (remnant Israel) among the group of physically Jewish people (national Israel).

Who Are the Jews in Israel Today?

"The return from Babylon [following the Captivity, about 538 B.C.] and the adoption of the Babylonian Talmud, marks the end of Hebrewism, and the beginning of Judaism."-Roger Risk, The Other End of the World: An Alternate Theory Linking Prophecy and History (Plano, Texas; Le Book Company, Inc., 1988), 182
First things first: Judaism is not Hebrewism. Judaism is a modern religion invented when the Talmud was imported from Babylon following the Babylonian Captivity. The Talmud is the foundation of Judaism. Hebrewism is the Israelite religion based on the Torah (a.k.a. the Law) and the Prophets, both of which dealt with the children of God awaiting their Saviour the Messiah (Christ). Modern Judaism is based off the traditions of the Pharisees, and their scriptures the Talmud. Paul was accused by the unbelieving Jews of his day as being the ringleader of an entirely new sect of Judaism when, in reality, he was really a follower of "the Way" (i.e., Hebrewism; Acts 24:5, 14).
Today's "Jews" (i.e., PHARISEES) do not worship the God of the Bible. Today's so called "Jews," who are outwardly "Jews" and who are ethnically claiming to be "Jewish," worship a false god because the Bible says that if you don't have the Son then you don't have the Father (1 John 2:23). And since they reject Jesus as the Messiah in the religion of the Pharisees, most self-proclaiming Jews are worshiping a false god. Christ even said to the unbelieving Pharisees of his day, "For had ye believed Moses, ye would have believed me; for he wrote of me. But if ye believe not his writings, how shall ye believe my words?" (John 5:46-47). This PROVES that they do not believe in the same God as Moses.
The nation of Israel in 70 AD was judged for rejecting Jesus Christ, and so its citizens were thrown out of the land. Nothing has changed. If something did, this would violate the pattern of what God has always done throughout Scripture, where the Jews' right to the physical land was not just some unconditional promise. No, it was ALWAYS conditional upon them worshipping the Lord (Deut. 28). And when they would not worship the Lord, they were kicked out (or weren't allowed to enter; Heb. 3:17-19). When they were worshipping the Lord, they were allowed to be there and prosper (Deut. 30:1-3). Even today, "Israel" does not occupy the entire land of Palestine.
So you have to ask yourself, "If the Lord is not the one who brought them back in 1947 and 1948, then... who did?" Looking at all the events that led up to it through WWI, there was something called the "Balfour Declaration" which was a letter sent to Nathan Rothschild granting the land of Palestine to be a place for the Jews (Pharisees) to have a homeland and so forth. This was done through the machinations of politicians and governors and the rulers of this world, through a lot of people spending a lot of money. People gave a ton of money to Harry Truman's campaign in order to get him to recognize Israel as a nation. Money that went through the whole process from WWI, to WWII and afterward, and it was all done through the funds of (Rabbinic) Jewish bankers as well as the wicked institution known as the United Nations. So if we look at the forces that were behind Israel becoming a nation, we realize that none of it was of the Lord; it's an illegitimate state: "They have set up kings, but not by me: they have made princes, and I knew it not: of their silver and their gold have they made them idols, that they may be cut off" (Hos. 8:4).
There is no such thing as an "ethnically pure" Israelite. Israel has been scattered and mixed through intermarriage with tribes around the world since 70 AD. That is why there are black African Jews, Scandinavian Jews, European Jews, etc. A DNA test would likely reveal dozens of ethnicities in one's biological blueprint. Unbelieving Jews themselves, ironically enough, have no clue as to which tribe they are descended from.
The Jewish-Roman war and the sight of Jesus in the clouds in 66 AD was the beginning of the 1,290 and 1,335 days prophesied by Daniel that led up to the scattering of the Jews (Dan. 12). There is no apparent fulfillment of this prophecy in the future, even though Dispensationalism would have you believe otherwise.
Dispensationalism is inherently politically and monetarily motivated. Remember that. This is because it is important for the Zionist agenda that Dispensationalism (and, by extension, Futurism) remain the dominant belief and Eschatology amongst Christians in general, as "Israel's" government is heavily funded and supported by evangelical Christianity (which, just so happens to be predominantly Dispensationalist in its theology).
The New Testament said of remnant Israel, "But ye are a chosen generation, a royal priesthood, an holy nation, a peculiar people; that ye should shew forth the praises of him who hath called you out of darkness into his marvellous light;" (1 Pet. 2:9). The word "Hebrew" means "to cross over" or "pass through." Believers were expected to act as pilgrims wherever they were (Heb. 11:13, 1 Pet. 2:11), because the Lord's kingdom was not of this world (John 18:36 cf. Phili. 3:10), and they passed from death unto life when they believed on the Messiah for their salvation (John 5:24).
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2024.05.02 23:59 ChockFullOfIrish How important is a diagnosis?

My mom is 84. She knows what day it is, the year, who the president is, who the governor of our state is, and can chat about local sports teams with other people. She still drives short distances. In other words, she appears pretty sharp to other people. But damn, can this woman get confused!
She recently had a minor medical procedure, and she received some instructions in the mail to contact her primary care doctor two weeks before the procedure to see if any medication adjustments needed to be made before the procedure (the main concern was blood thinners).
So she called her doctor but she was still waiting for a call back. I was talking with her on the phone, and she casually mentioned that she stopped taking her Metformin the day before. I was perplexed because I knew she hadn’t spoken with the doctor yet. She told me that the instructions she received said to stop taking Metformin two weeks before. I asked her to read me the instructions, and she read aloud “please contact your doctor two weeks prior to the procedure to see if any adjustment to your medications are needed.” So I ask her why she stopped taking the Metformin, and she repeats the same line to me, getting more and more frustrated and annoyed with me. It’s as if she thought that the line she was reading to me actually said to come off Metformin. It was so bizarre. Then probably realizing she was backed into a corner, she changed her story to “I remember the last time I had this procedure they told me to stop Metformin for two weeks before.” Also untrue. I could not convince her to go back on her Metformin that day.
The next day I went to visit her so I could look at the document in person. I looked at it and calmly told her that she needed to take her Metformin until otherwise instructed, and she was just like “okay”, and didn’t resist. Complete 180.
Sorry for the novel, but this is just an example of the cognitive problems she’s been experiencing. She seems to have “bouts” of confusion and then gets better. I have expressed my concern to her primary care doctor, but he says it’s just normal aging.
My questions are: does this sound like normal aging? If it’s not normal aging, how important is it that she is formally diagnosed?
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