Laubach method

Government Debt - Should we worry about it?

2023.01.27 19:36 NominalNews Government Debt - Should we worry about it?

Summary

Introduction

The topic of sovereign, or government, debt is in the news again due to a unique legal and historical quirk in the US. The US, unlike most countries, has a legal debt limit (“debt ceiling”) that needs approval from Congress to be increased. The US actually used to have an even more restrictive spending law, whereby every debt and bond issuance had to be signed off by Congress. This was changed to a debt ceiling in 1917.

As there are significant political negotiations occurring around the debt ceiling, we can ask about the risks (and benefits) of sovereign debt. When countries and governments spend more than they earn (mainly in tax revenues), they must run a deficit and turn to debt financing. This debt financing is done by the issuance of bonds. Who actually holds these bonds can be varied – government debt can be held by central banks, financial institutions, citizens of the country issuing the debt, and foreign citizens and institutions. Who holds government debt is on its own an important question in economics, but in this post we will focus on the impacts of debt on the economy.

Financing through Debt

Any government spending can be broadly financed in one of two ways: either collecting revenue from its citizens, usually via taxes, or issuing debt. This debt needs to be repaid at some point in the future by the citizens, which means that tax revenues will have to be raised. This leads to a choice of “tax now or tax later”. One theory about this choice, that acts as a helpful thought experiment, is the Ricardian Equivalence theory. Named after economist David Ricardo
1, the hypothesis argues that the choice of debt spending or raising taxes is irrelevant. This is because citizens would assume that in order to pay off the issued debt, their taxes will be increased in the future. To prepare for that situation, they would set aside this money today, which would basically mimic being charged a tax. However, Ricardian Equivalence has been repeatedly shown not to be true in the data. From this, the discussion on government debt spending grew into one on whether debt spending can benefit everyone, including future generations.
The main issue that arises with debt financing is the inter-generational question – funding via debt today could result in higher taxes for future generations, while at the same time increasing consumption today. This leads to a trade-off of today’s generations having higher consumption at the expense of future generations. However, whether this trade-off is necessarily true is also hotly debated in economics. This leads to two main distinct questions of what is the impact of debt spending:
  1. The fiscal impact – is issuing debt a fiscally costly or beneficial act in purely financial terms? Basically this question focuses on whether issuing debt costs us money, today or in the future, or has no negative financial impact (colloquially known as a ‘free lunch’). For example, if the interest rate on the debt is lower than the return gained by spending this debt, the debt would have no negative fiscal impact.
  2. The welfare impact – unlike the fiscal impact, this issue focuses on whether individuals are better off in terms of actual consumption. From the perspective of individuals, money on its own is not important, but rather the goods and services we consume (economists usually refer to this as “utility from consumption”). Thus, the welfare impact focuses on: 1) how the benefits are spread out (for example, an extra $1 of consumption for a poorer person gives them more value than a richer person); 2) how are they spread out in time (for example, are all current and future generations better off, or just the current ones); and 3) if the benefits are certain or uncertain (people are risk averse, which means they prefer guaranteed outcomes over expected outcomes).

Benefits of Debt Spending

In 2019, Oliver Blanchard delivered a speech (text) to the American Economic Association (video) on the issue of sovereign debt in a low interest environment. This speech has been considered to be one of the most important speeches in recent times, as it reinvigorated the debate around debt and deficit spending. Blanchard points out that for nearly all developed economies, the nominal interest rate for debt is below nominal GDP growth rates (which still holds true today). If we were to think of it in terms of an investment, we could borrow money to fund the investment at a lower interest rate than the return from the investment. In this circumstance, borrowing can be seen nearly as free. (In the Appendix of this post, I go over the mechanism explaining why such debt is not only sustainable, but also welfare-improving for all individuals in the economy.) This situation creates a ‘free lunch’, meaning it has no fiscal, or financial, impact. Research by Mian, Straub and Sufi (2021) has shown this situation to probably be true in the US (and in Japan). To illustrate this effect numerically, today, the nominal borrowing rate in the US (a 30 Year Treasury is at 3.65%) is below the GDP nominal growth rate (around 9-10%), which would imply that borrowing would be cost-less for the US. This pattern currently holds for many developed economies. However, although the debt might be fiscally ‘free’, it still might not have a positive welfare impact (issue 2 listed above). To resolve this issue, government debt acts as a tool to balance the welfare outcomes across generations.
To achieve this welfare balance, government debt (and any government spending for that matter) can be used broadly for two things – investments or consumption (for example, if a government gives a tax cut today, people can go and consume this money on entertainment). The distinction between the two might not always be clear-cut. Generally, investment can be seen as interventions that could result in higher economic output, usually in endeavors that are under-funded by the private market.
2 Examples of this include infrastructure spending on roads or mass transit or funding for university research. These interventions predominantly benefit future generations. Consumption type spending are programs such as social security or stimulus checks, as these are direct transfer to individuals. These interventions benefit current generations. An example of a mixed program can be the Child Tax Credit, as it can be seen as a human capital investment, as well as a consumption program, which benefits both generations.
In either case, the main purpose of government debt is to balance the welfare outcomes between generations. If long-run investments are funded via tax increases, the generation (“Generation 1”) that pays the tax might not survive until the benefits of these investments materialize. However, if the government funds these long-run investments with debt, this problem is resolved. Generation 1 now will hold government debt, and when they retire and have no sources of income, they will be able to use their debt claim to receive income. Through debt financing, the government is able to both fund long run investment and increase consumption for both generations. Note that in an optimal world, we would fund the investments via tax increases (preferably lump sum taxes) on Generation 1 and then the newly incoming generation (“Generation 2” or the children of Generation 1) would pay Generation 1 via transfer when they retire, offsetting the tax Generation 1 initially paid. However, the problem with this solution is mainly an issue of political commitment – there is no guarantee that Generation 2 will want to transfer money to Generation 1 when the time comes. In his speech, Blanchard argues that debt financing also assists with this problem and that some levels of debt are welfare improving for everyone – in this case for both Generation 1 and Generation 2 (see Appendix for more details).

Macroeconomic Costs of Debt Spending

Based on the above, there appears to be a growing consensus that the fiscal impact of debt in advanced economies is not that large, if any. However, on the issue of welfare impact, there is far less consensus with many economists arguing about the adverse impact of debt. Typically, the key costs of debt and deficit spending, as articulated by Boskin (2020) in a response to Blanchard (2019) are the following: 1) crowding-out private investment
3; 2) inflationary pressures if the debt is held by the central bank4; and, 3) panic over high levels of sovereign debt. The first issue that is currently most pertinent is the impact of the crowding-out effect. By reducing private investment, the costs to the economy can be significant. Kumar and Woo (2010) argue that a 10 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, reduces GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points for advanced economies, and by 0.3-0.4 percentage points for developing economies.
However, regarding advanced economies, the crowding out argument has been challenged because of the recent extremely low interest rate environment prevalent in these advanced economies. During the last decade nominal interest rates were zero (and therefore real rates were negative as inflation was positive). This meant that the price of money or investing was ‘free’ (more precisely, negative). The main way this could have occurred is because there were insufficient investment opportunities in the market – there was no demand for investment capital, while the supply of capital was large. With high supply and low demand, the price of money (and theoretically of anything) can become negative. One way to correct the problem of negative real interest rates would have been through additional government investments via debt, which would increase demand for capital. As the government would demand more capital, the price would go up. Today, however, real interest rates may potentially turn positive soon (when nominal interest rates will be higher than inflation), the issue of crowding-out private investment by issuing government debt could re-emerge because the demand for capital will be high.
Another problem of government debt, acknowledged by Blanchard (2019), is if the debt interest rate return becomes larger than the growth rate of the economy. In this situation, the overall debt burden could start growing exponentially as interest payments become larger. Greenlaw et al. (2013) estimate that each 1 percentage point increase in debt-to-GDP increases borrowing costs by 0.045 percentage points. A similar effect was found by Laubach (2009). In instances where the debt would become fiscally unsustainable, there would be two ways to resolve the issue: either an increase in taxes to pay off the debt or a default (i.e. the government reneges on its debt obligation). Increasing taxes, although unpopular, is generally not too problematic, especially as it would be a one-off increase to bring the debt amount to sustainable levels. However, defaulting on debt could have potentially far wider implications. The risk of default was very prominent during the European debt crisis in 2009-2010, especially for Spain and Italy. As this is an important topic on its own, I will go over it in a separate post.

Conclusion

The issue of deficit and debt funding is a topic that stirs significant political debates. It is important, however, to note that debt funding is a tool for allocating economic resources across generations. Investments today generally pay off well into the future and thus, current generations, who are the voters, have low incentives to fund these projects through taxes. Moreover, these voters also do not believe in the altruism of future generations, as these future generations would need to compensate their predecessors for having undertaken the long-term investments. Debt financing resolves some of this intergenerational conflict.
The more important question, however, is how the funding is allocated. Public investments, such as infrastructure spending, are generally seen to be welfare improving for future generations, as the fiscal multiplier (i.e. how much return we get for a dollar of spend) is greater than 1 resulting in more resources available for future generations than the debt that needs to be repaid. In such a situation, debt financing allows us to distribute some of these benefits from future generations to current generations that hold the debt, making everyone better off. Even critics of large debt burdens believe that this type of public spending is beneficial (Boskin, 2020). Furthermore, this is somewhat confirmed by research by Peppel-Srebrny (2021) which suggests that government bonds issued for investment projects have lower interest rates than bonds for consumption purposes, as the bond holders expect the economy to benefit in the long run making repayment more likely, and thus they require a lower return.
Finally, this all leads to the question of what is the optimal or maximal amount of debt a government can take, which, unfortunately, is also an unanswered question. The European Union has what is called a 60 - 3 rule, whereby debt-to-GDP shouldn’t exceed 60%, while annual deficits should never be greater than 3% of GDP. However, whether this is a good approach has not been determined. Blanchard, in an IMF post said about this question the following:
“So my answer to the question is, I do not know what level of debt, in general, is safe. Give me a specific country and a specific time, and I will use the approach above to give you my answer. Then we can discuss whether my assumptions are reasonable. But don’t ask me for a simple rule. Any simple rule will be too simple.”
He elaborated that EU fiscal rule was probably too restrictive during the 2008 crisis and maintaining the 60 - 3 rule probably lowered consumption for all generations, making everyone else worse off. Regarding the US, recent research by Mehrotra and Sergeyev (2020) suggested that the US sustainable fiscal limit could be around 150% to 220% of GDP, while it currently sits at around 120%. Mian, Straub and Sufi (2021), on the other hand, believe that the fiscally ‘free’ limit might already have been attained.

Post Scriptum

We often hear the analogy that government budgets must be balanced (revenues must equal spending) just like our own household budgets. This is not a good analogy for many reasons but the two key ones are that: 1) A significant amount of government borrowing is held by its own citizens – so it is as if we were borrowing from ourselves, and 2) government spending is an inter-generational consumption smoothing tool. We do not make our own household spending and investment decisions based on what we think is a fair consumption level of our great-grandkids, because we do not get any benefit from it. It is precisely the situation of not internalizing the externality of our own actions, which is why we, within our households, personally heavily under-invest in the welfare of our descendants. Government debt allows us to internalize this externality.

Appendix – Fiscally Neutral Debt

To elaborate more on why debt might have no fiscal cost, Blanchard proposed a model where individuals live for two time periods – one when they are young and work, and one when they are old and retire (this is called an overlapping generations model or OLG model). When young people earn money via work, they consume some of this money and save the rest. Whatever they saved when they were young, they will consume when they are old. The money that is saved is invested in capital (we can think of this capital as factories, machines and buildings, but also intangible capital such as software) and earns some return. Note that the more people save, the lower the return to capital is as capital becomes abundant.
Next, Blanchard assumes a government issues debt. As this debt must be held by someone, for simplicity, he assumes that the young ‘buy’ this debt (i.e. invest in it). For holding this debt, they will receive some risk-free return (a risk-free return, as the name suggests, can be thought of as a guaranteed return). Note that the young can still save some of their money in the riskier ‘capital’ (by riskier, we mean its return is uncertain), but because they purchase some of the risk-free debt, they save less in the risky ‘capital’. From the issued debt, the government can transfer the entire issued debt amount (net off the interest needed to pay the debt holders) to the old for them to consume. As long as the risk-free interest rate of the government debt is below the growth rate of the economy (the growth rate of the economy is driven by factors such as population growth and technological improvement), the debt will be financially sustainable. Moreover, this world with debt issuance will make everyone better off! The main reason for this is that the young need some ‘instrument’ to save for retirement. In a world without debt, they would need to save using risky capital and because people generally are risk-averse, the uncertainty of these returns harms individuals' welfare (i.e. you prefer to know how much you’ll receive when you retire rather than have a probability of outcomes). With the certainty of debt returns, individuals will be better off.
Lastly, as a small aside, it is worth noting that a direct transfer from young to old would be even better from a welfare perspective. The mechanism of young saving through government debt is inefficient because its returns are below the growth rate of the economy – a direct transfer, bypassing any saving instruments, would have a return equal to the growth rate of the economy. Thus the ‘return’ from the direct transfer is greater than using any saving instrument – whether government debt or risky capital.

Originally posted on https://nominalnews.substack.com/p/government-debt-should-we-worry-about
submitted by NominalNews to u/NominalNews [link] [comments]


2022.09.21 05:59 DivineDarkling Become one with the target then pull the trigger, Piglet. 💥🔫

Become one with the target then pull the trigger, Piglet. 💥🔫 submitted by DivineDarkling to u/DivineDarkling [link] [comments]


2021.07.28 11:00 ClinicalTrialsBot 102 Recently Updated Clinical Trials - actively recruiting healthy volunteers as of 2021-07-28

102 Clinical Trials updated on 2021-07-27

All 102 studies in this list are actively recruiting at one or more locations. Most studies in this list accept healthy volunteers with the exception of any studies missing a 'Y' in the Healthy Volunteers column. Those studies may or may not be accepting healthy volunteers, you can click through to confirm. Verifying studies as Paid Studies is a work in progress.
Title Keyword Healthy Gender Age Sponsor Countries States Cities
Study of Premenstrual Syndrome and Premenstrual Dysphoria Cognition Y F 18-50 NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Familial Mediterranean Fever and Related Disorders: Genetics and.. Autoinflammation Y All 1+ NHGRI USA MD Bethesda
A Comprehensive Clinical, Microbiological and Immunological Asse.. Borrelia Burgdorferi Y All 13+ NIAID USA MD Bethesda
An Investigation of Pituitary Tumors and Related Hypothalmic Dis.. Developmental Defect Y All 3-70 NICHD USA MD Bethesda
Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) Ofl Volunteers Magnetic Resonance Imaging Y All 18+ CC USA MD Bethesda
Diabetes and Heart Disease Risk in Blacks Healthy Volunteers Y All 18-70 NIDDK USA MD Bethesda
Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of Neuropsychiatric Patients an.. fMRI Y All 18+ NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Treatment of Hemochromatosis Phlebotomy Therapy Y All 18+ CC USA MD Bethesda
Collection of Blood, Bone Marrow, Tumor, or Tissue Samples From .. Assays Y All 18+ NCI USA MD Bethesda
High-Risk Breast Duct Epithelium Breast Cancer Y F 18-74 NCI USA MD Bethesda
Cancer Risk in Carriers of the Gene for Xeroderma Pigmentosum Sun Exposure Y All 1-99 NCI USA MD Bethesda
Blood Collection for Research Related to Certain Diseases Involv.. DNA Y All 18+ NHLBI USA MD Bethesda
Collection of Tissue Specimens From Patients With Solid Tumors o.. Tissue Procurement Y All 2-110 NHLBI USA MD Bethesda
Cytapheresis of Volunteer Donors White Blood Cells Y All 18+ NIA USA MD Baltimore
The Neurodevelopmental and Behavioral Phenotyping Screening Prot.. Developmental Delay Y All NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Development of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Techniques for Studyin.. Morphometry Y All 18-65 NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Effects of Diet Changes on Metabolism Energy Expenditure Y All 18-55 NIDDK USA AZ Phoenix
Screening for Research Participants Eye Y All 2+ NEI USA MD Bethesda
Computer-Assisted Self-Administration of Ethanol Alcohol Y All 21-60 NIAAA USA MD Bethesda
Normal Blood, Bone Marrow and Buccal Mucosa Protocol Skin Y All 18-65 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Advanced Functional and Structural MRI Techniques for Neuropharm.. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) Y All 18-55 NIDA USA MD Baltimore
Top-Down Attentional Control of Visual-Processing Visual Attention Y All 18+ NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Sample Collection Registry for Quality Control of Biological and.. Serum Y All 18+ NIEHS USA NC Research Triangle Park
Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Severe Ap.. Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Y All 4-80 NHLBI USA MD Bethesda, Catonsville
DICER1-related Pleuropulmonary Blastoma Cancer Predisposition Sy.. Thyroid Cancer Y All NCI USA MD Bethesda
Genetics of Obesity, Diabetes, and Heart Disease in African Dias.. Cardiometabolic Diseases Y All 18+ NHGRI USA MD Bethesda
Screening for LID Clinical Studies Unit Healthy Volunteer Protoc.. Future Y All 18-65 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Cell Collection to Study Eye Diseases Best Disease Y All 1+ NEI USA MD Bethesda
Imaging Biomarkers in Parkinson s Disease Brain Imaging Y All 18+ NINDS USA MD Bethesda
Inherited Diseases, Caregiving, and Social Networks Genetic Condition Y All 18+ NHGRI USA MD Bethesda
Brain Stimulation and Vision Testing Theta Burst Stimulation Y All 18-50 NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Natural History Study of Biomarkers in Pulmonary Arterial Hypert.. Vascular Inflammation Y All 18+ CC USA MD Bethesda
Resveratrol and Cardiovascular Health in the Elderly Vascular Stiffness Y All 50+ NIA USA MD Baltimore
Inflammatory and Infectious Diseases of the Nervous System Neuroinflammation Y All 2+ NINDS USA MD Bethesda
Neural and Psychological Mechanisms of Pain Perception Pain Y All 18-50 NCCIH USA MD Bethesda
Development Of Neuroimaging Methods To Assess The Neurobiology O.. fMRI Y All 18+ NIAAA USA MD Bethesda
Neurobiology of Suicide Neurobiology Y All 18-70 NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Human Biospecimen Procurement Protocol: Biorepository to Support.. Sample Collection Y All 1-100 NHLBI USA MD Bethesda
Screening of Healthy Volunteers for Investigational Antimalarial.. Subjects Y All 18-50 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Impact of Once-Weekly Rifapentine and Isoniazid on the Steady St.. Fixed Sequence Y All 18-65 CC USA MD Bethesda
Imaging of Lungs With a New Type of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (.. MRI Y All 5+ Children's Hospital .. USA OH Cincinnati
Natural History, Pathogenesis, and Outcome of Autoinflammatory D.. Study of pathogenesis of patient.. Y All 2-99 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Technical Development of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imagi.. 1.5 T CMR Y All 18+ NHLBI USA MD Bethesda
Impact of Weekly Administration of Rifapentine and Isoniazid on .. Antiretrovial Therapy Y All 18-65 CC USA MD Bethesda
Blood Markers of Early Pancreas Cancer Y All 19+ University of Nebras.. USA NE Omaha
Opaque Bottle Study infant feeding Y All California Polytechn.. USA CA San Luis Obispo
Family Men (English Title) Family Violence Y M 18+ University of Miami USA FL Miami
Outcome Inference in the Sensory Preconditioning Task in Opioid-.. Addiction Y All 21-60 NIDA USA MD Baltimore
Strategic Targeting for Optimal Prevention of Cancer All 18+ ClinLogic LLC USA PA York
Targeting ER Stress in Vascular Dysfunction ER stress Y All 18-80 Colorado State Unive.. USA CO Fort Collins
Virginia Commonwealth University Stress Reduction Study Mindfulness Y All 18-88 Virginia Commonwealt.. USA VA Richmond
Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of F.. Pharmacology Y All 18-100 NHLBI USA MD Bethesda
Hydromorphone vs Fentanyl in Children Undergoing Tonsillectomy S.. Y All 2-15 Washington Universit.. USA MO Saint Louis
Expanded NIPT for Pregnancy Complications F 18-60 University of Califo.. USA CA San Francisco
Effect of Acute Alcohol Intoxication on Neural Processes During .. Binge Y All 21-65 NIAAA USA MD Bethesda
Impact on Anxiety and Motivation of COVID-19 and Predictors of I.. Coronavirus Y All 18+ NIMH USA MD Bethesda
PET Imaging of Cyclooxygenases in Neurodegenerative Brain Diseas.. PET Imaging Y All 18-80 NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Effectiveness of the Collaborative Community Clinic for Persons .. All 18+ Washington Universit.. USA MO Saint Louis
Blood Loss After Early TXA in Hip Fractures. tranexamic acid Y All 18+ Community Memorial H.. USA CA Ventura
Serological Surveillance for COVID-19 in Central North Carolina SARS-CoV-2 Y All 18+ NIEHS USA NC Research Triangle Park
Exercise-stimulated Muscle Glucose Uptake in Upper Body Obesity Y All 18-55 Mayo Clinic USA MN Rochester
Profiling the Skin Microbiome in Response to Altreno in Acne Pat.. Y All 18-40 Beth Israel Deacones.. USA MA Boston
COV2Base-A Rare Disease by COVID Study Modifier of Disease Y All 1+ NHLBI USA MD Bethesda
Identification and Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Specific CD8 T.. CD8 T Cell Y All 18+ NIA USA MD Baltimore
Human-like Robotic Controllers for Enhanced Motor Learning Stroke Y All 18-80 Shirley Ryan Ability.. USA IL Chicago
HPV Vaccine Communication ECHO for Primary Care Clinics Y All 18+ Milton S. Hershey Me.. USA PA Hershey
Receptor Occupancy of LB-102 Using Positron Emission Tomography .. Y All 18-55 LB Pharmaceuticals I.. USA MO Saint Louis
Connect for Cancer Prevention Study (Connect) Risk Factors Y All 40-65 NCI USA SD Sioux Falls
Safety and Tolerability of Single and Multiple Ascending Doses o.. Major Depressive Disorder Y All 18-40 Gate Neurosciences, .. USA NJ Eatontown
OsciPulse Device for the Prevention of VTE Y All 40+ University of Pennsy.. USA PA Philadelphia
Safety and Immunogenicity of an Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) gp350-F.. Infectious Mononucleosis Y All 18-29 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Isatuximab, Lenalidomide, Bortezomib, and Dexamethasone in NDMM Multiple Myeloma Y All 75+ Jacob Laubach USA MA Boston
Androgen Receptor, Implications for Health and Wellbeing: Natura.. Androgen insensitivity syndrome .. Y All NICHD USA MD Bethesda
Safety, Tolerability, and Bioeffects of Alirocumab in Non-treatm.. Alcohol Y All 21-65 NIAAA USA MD Bethesda
Natural History of Systemic and Nasal Mucosal Immunity to Influe.. Flu Y All 18+ NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Sedation Regimens in GI Endoscopy Y All 18-75 Greg S Cohen MD LLC USA IL Chicago
Preop COVID Testing Patterns Testing, preoperative All 18+ Wake Forest Universi.. USA NC Winston-Salem
GI Permeability Change in Response to Aquamin® gastrointestinal permeability Y All 18-80 James Varani USA MI Ann Arbor
Video Chat During Meals to Improve Nutritional Intake in Older A.. Older Adults Y All 60-95 Cornell University USA NY Ithaca
Metabolic Profiling of Immune Responses in Immune-mediated Disea.. Primary Immunodeficiency Y All 18-75 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Natural History of the Human Biological Response to Environmenta.. Blood Collection Y All 18+ NIEHS USA NC Research Triangle Park
Clinical, Genetic, and Epidemiologic Study of Children and Adult.. Ras/MAPK pathway Y All NCI USA MD Bethesda
Endometrial Basis for Infertility in Women With Recurrent Implan.. IVF Y F 18-42 NICHD USA MD Bethesda
Clinical, Molecular and Imaging Biomarkers in Spinal and Bulbar .. Motor Neuron Disease Y M 18+ NINDS USA MD Bethesda
Safety and Effectivness of Quercetin & Dasatinib on Epigenetic A.. Quercetin Y All 40+ TruDiagnostic USA FL Orlando
Characterization of an Optically Pumped Magnetometer (OPM) Magne.. Imaging Y All 18-65 NIMH USA MD Bethesda
Natural History of Systemic and Nasal Mucosal Immunity After Inf.. Flu Y All 2-17 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
SofWave Treatment to Lift Lax Tissue in the Submental and Neck Z.. Laxity Brow Lifting Skin Saggy Y All 35-80 Sofwave Medical LTD USA CA Irvine
Community Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in Humans and Mosquit.. Assays Y All 6+ NIAID USA MD Bethesda
A Randomized, Placebo-controlled Crossover Study to Assess the S.. polyethylene glycol (PEG) Y All 18-69 NIAID USA MD Bethesda
Pilot Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of a Patient-Spec.. Open abdominal Y All 18+ Andrew Bernard USA KY Lexington
A Faithful Response to COVID-19 Project African American Y All 18+ University of Missou.. USA MO Independence, Kansas City
Virtual ACT for Adolescent Stress Virtual Therapy Y All 14-21 Children's Hospital .. USA CA Los Angeles
HPV in Sinonasal Ca: Retrospective Analysis Association of Human.. Y All 18+ Sidney Kimmel Compre.. USA MD Baltimore
Adult and Juvenile Myositis Adult and Pediatric Disease Y All 2-100 NIEHS USA MD, NC Bethesda, Research Triangle Park
Natural History, Physiology, Microbiome and Biochemistry Studies.. Organic Acidemia Y All 8-100 NHGRI USA MD, PA Bethesda, Pittsburgh
Evaluation of Doxycycline Post-exposure Prophylaxis to Reduce Se.. HIV Y M 18+ University of Califo.. USA CA, WA San Francisco, Seattle
Linking Inter-professional Newborn and Contraception Care Y F 18-45 Rush University Medi.. USA HI, IL, NY Chicago, New York, Wailuku
Droplet-BC Screening Test for the Detection of Breast Cancer, th.. Y All 18+ Preferred Medicine, .. USA IL, NY, TX Buffalo, Chicago, Houston
Development and Validation of Patient Reported Outcome (PRO) Mea.. Pain Scale Y All 5+ NCI USA DC, IL, MD, OH Bethesda, Chicago, Cincinnati, Washington
Artificial Urinary Sphincter Clinical Outcomes Y M 18+ Boston Scientific Co.. USA CA, IA, LA, MA, MD, MN, NC, OH, TN, TX 12
Post-market Study of the Biodesign Hernia Graft Y All 18+ Cook Biotech Incorpo.. Canada, USA British Columbia, Nova Scotia, TN Halifax, Nashville, Vancouver
submitted by ClinicalTrialsBot to clinicaltrials [link] [comments]


2021.06.11 18:00 NewHeightsEducation Language Arts Courses

Writing (FREE!)
In this ten-lesson writing course, students will learn about basic writing patterns. The course includes warm-up exercises, detailed instructions and multiple examples for students to visualize writing movements. Students will also have the opportunity to practice writing strategies to develop functional handwriting. At the end of the course, students will be proficient in basic writing skills and able to compose words involving different types of letters.

Learn to Read - Youth
The NHEG Learn to Read online course aims to educate parents/tutors/ teachers/guides on how to help their student practice reading skills and fluency, cultivate strategies for reading, broaden vocabulary, increase spelling ability and conquer reading anxieties. Proven exercises and fun tips are provided to keep the student motivated and engaged throughout the process. The course takes the student and their selected reading guide through easy-to-follow stages – Expectations & Tips for Success, Prepare, Read in a Relaxed Setting, After Reading, Daily Practice and Practice Tips – creating a foundation of literacy on which they can build over time.
This course is for younger students from first grade to seventh grade. Note: This class works as a complement to the lessons in Natural Speller, which are available, for free, on NHEG’s website.

Learn to Read - Adults
The NHEG Learn to Read: Adult Literacy online course gives teachers/ tutors/reading guides strategies for helping older students acquire literacy skills and provides methods for consistent, repeated practice. The course demonstrates the reputable and proven Laubach method, and provides resources for continuing practice beyond the course: Preparing for the Course, Reading the Laubach Charts, Reading the Laubach Stories, Writing the Laubach Lessons, Continuing Your Practice – creating a foundation of literacy on which they can build through consistent, repeated practice.
NHEG recommends the Laubach Learning System for middle school, high school and adult reading students. An online course for younger students is also available.

Natural Speller (FREE!)
The Natural Speller online course is a way to help students from public, charter and home schools become effective spellers while in school.
This is the only book you will ever need to teach spelling. Teaching strategies include additional tips for use with the learning disabled, and word lists are organized by both sight and sound patterns. Build vocabulary skills with Latin and Greek roots and word lists, and by using the spelling rules to add prefixes and suffixes to root words.
Choose from among the suggested activities to include practice with grammar, dictionary and composition skills. Phonic, spelling and punctuation rules are listed for easy reference. Word lists are divided by grades 1 through 8; however, this method is easily adapted for older students or adults who need remedial work.
Because of its multi-sensory and simplified approach to spelling, and because each child can work at his or her own pace, this program is ideal for students with learning disabilities. The course placed second in the 1999 and third in the 2001 Practical Homeschooling Reader Awards, and received an Honorable Mention in 2005.


Note that all free courses require a subscription fee ($6/month). More info here.
Info on other available courses at NHEG can be found at: https://imgur.com/a/ogik4Hg
If you're interested or have any questions, please don’t hesitate to send us a pm or contact us through email (pinned on our profile page).
submitted by NewHeightsEducation to NHEG [link] [comments]


2021.03.15 19:43 kjonesatjaagnet Faster drug discovery through machine learning New technique speeds up calculations of drug molecules’ binding affinity to proteins.

Faster drug discovery through machine learning New technique speeds up calculations of drug molecules’ binding affinity to proteins.

![img](gaqhja91m8n61 " MIT researchers have developed a machine learning-based technique to more quickly calculate the binding affinity of a drug molecule (represented in pink) with a target protein (the circular structure). Image: MIT News, and circular structure courtesy of the researchers ")
Drugs can only work if they stick to their target proteins in the body. Assessing that stickiness is a key hurdle in the drug discovery and screening process. New research combining chemistry and machine learning could lower that hurdle.
The new technique, dubbed DeepBAR, quickly calculates the binding affinities between drug candidates and their targets. The approach yields precise calculations in a fraction of the time compared to previous state-of-the-art methods. The researchers say DeepBAR could one day quicken the pace of drug discovery and protein engineering.
“Our method is orders of magnitude faster than before, meaning we can have drug discovery that is both efficient and reliable,” says Bin Zhang, the Pfizer-Laubach Career Development Professor in Chemistry at MIT, an associate member of the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, and a co-author of a new paper describing the technique.
The research appears today in the Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters. The study’s lead author is Xinqiang Ding, a postdoc in MIT’s Department of Chemistry.
The affinity between a drug molecule and a target protein is measured by a quantity called the binding free energy — the smaller the number, the stickier the bind. “A lower binding free energy means the drug can better compete against other molecules,” says Zhang, “meaning it can more effectively disrupt the protein’s normal function.” Calculating the binding free energy of a drug candidate provides an indicator of a drug’s potential effectiveness. But it’s a difficult quantity to nail down.
Methods for computing binding free energy fall into two broad categories, each with its own drawbacks. One category calculates the quantity exactly, eating up significant time and computer resources. The second category is less computationally expensive, but it yields only an approximation of the binding free energy. Zhang and Ding devised an approach to get the best of both worlds.
Exact and efficient
DeepBAR computes binding free energy exactly, but it requires just a fraction of the calculations demanded by previous methods. The new technique combines traditional chemistry calculations with recent advances in machine learning.
The “BAR” in DeepBAR stands for “Bennett acceptance ratio,” a decades-old algorithm used in exact calculations of binding free energy. Using the Bennet acceptance ratio typically requires a knowledge of two “endpoint” states (e.g., a drug molecule bound to a protein and a drug molecule completely dissociated from a protein), plus knowledge of many intermediate states (e.g., varying levels of partial binding), all of which bog down calculation speed.
DeepBAR slashes those in-between states by deploying the Bennett acceptance ratio in machine-learning frameworks called deep generative models. “These models create a reference state for each endpoint, the bound state and the unbound state,” says Zhang. These two reference states are similar enough that the Bennett acceptance ratio can be used directly, without all the costly intermediate steps.
In using deep generative models, the researchers were borrowing from the field of computer vision. “It’s basically the same model that people use to do computer image synthensis,” says Zhang. “We’re sort of treating each molecular structure as an image, which the model can learn. So, this project is building on the effort of the machine learning community.”
While adapting a computer vision approach to chemistry was DeepBAR’s key innovation, the crossover also raised some challenges. “These models were originally developed for 2D images,” says Ding. “But here we have proteins and molecules — it’s really a 3D structure. So, adapting those methods in our case was the biggest technical challenge we had to overcome.”
A faster future for drug screening
In tests using small protein-like molecules, DeepBAR calculated binding free energy nearly 50 times faster than previous methods. Zhang says that efficiency means “we can really start to think about using this to do drug screening, in particular in the context of Covid. DeepBAR has the exact same accuracy as the gold standard, but it’s much faster.” The researchers add that, in addition to drug screening, DeepBAR could aid protein design and engineering, since the method could be used to model interactions between multiple proteins.
DeepBAR is “a really nice computational work” with a few hurdles to clear before it can be used in real-world drug discovery, says Michael Gilson, a professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the University of California at San Diego, who was not involved in the research. He says DeepBAR would need to be validated against complex experimental data. “That will certainly pose added challenges, and it may require adding in further approximations.”
In the future, the researchers plan to improve DeepBAR’s ability to run calculations for large proteins, a task made feasible by recent advances in computer science. “This research is an example of combining traditional computational chemistry methods, developed over decades, with the latest developments in machine learning,” says Ding. “So, we achieved something that would have been impossible before now.”
Originally published by Daniel Ackerman - MIT News Office March 15, 2021 MIT
This research was funded, in part, by the National Institutes of Health.
submitted by kjonesatjaagnet to JAAGNet [link] [comments]


http://activeproperty.pl/