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Surah Hud, the 11th chapter of the Holy Quran, stands as a powerful cornerstone of Islamic scripture. Named after Prophet Hud (peace be upon him), the surah unveils a tapestry of narratives, warnings, and messages of unwavering hope. Composed of 123 verses, this Meccan surah delves into the struggles of Prophet Hud and the consequences faced by those who rejected his call to monotheism.
A FOUNDATION OF UNITY: THE ONENESS OF ALLAH (SWT)
The very essence of Surah Hud lies in emphasizing the absolute oneness of Allah (SWT). Verses throughout the chapter serve as a clarion call to reject polytheism and embrace the worship of the One True God. In the opening verse, Allah (SWT) declares with a powerful oath:
“Alif-Lam-Ra. [These letters are one of the miracles of the Quran and none but Allah (Alone) knows their meanings]. (This is) a Book, the Verses whereof are perfected (in every sphere of knowledge, etc.), and then explained in detail from One (Allah), Who is All-Wise and Well-Acquainted (with all things).” (Quran 11:1)
“(Saying) worship none but Allah. Verily, I (Muhammad SAW) am unto you from Him a warner and a bringer of glad tidings.” (Quran 11:2)
“And (commanding you): “Seek the forgiveness of your Lord, and turn to Him in repentance, that He may grant you good enjoyment, for a term appointed, and bestow His abounding Grace to every owner of grace (i.e. the one who helps and serves needy and deserving, physically and with his wealth, and even with good words). But if you turn away, then I fear for you the torment of a Great Day (i.e. the Day of Resurrection).” (Quran 11:3)
This sets the stage for the overarching theme of divine unity. Verse 61 further emphasizes this message:
“And to Thamud (people, We sent) their brother Salih (Saleh). He said: “O my people! Worship Allah, you have no other Ilah (God) but Him. He brought you forth from the earth and settled you therein, then ask forgiveness of Him and turn to Him in repentance. Certainly, my Lord is Near (to all by His Knowledge), Responsive.”” (Quran 11:61)
Surah Hud reiterates this message throughout, culminating in a powerful statement in verse 123:
“And to Allah belongs the Ghaib (unseen) of the heavens and the earth, and to Him return all affairs (for decision). So worship Him (O Muhammad SAW) and put your trust in Him. And your Lord is not unaware of what you (people) do.” (Quran 11:123).
These verses leave no room for ambiguity. They serve as a stark reminder for humanity to turn away from idolatry and embrace the worship of Allah (SWT) alone.
PROPHETIC NARRATIVES: LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE PAST
Surah Hud unfolds a series of narratives that recount the stories of various prophets, including Noah, Saleh, Shuʿaib, Lot, and Moses (peace be upon them all). These stories serve a vital purpose: they highlight the recurring theme of rejection faced by prophets who urged their communities to believe in one God.
The People of ʿĀd and the Devastating Wind:
The story of the ʿĀd, a powerful and technologically advanced civilization, is recounted in verses 52-68. These verses detail how Prophet Hud (peace be upon him) warned his people of the consequences of disobeying Allah (SWT). He implored them to abandon their polytheistic practices and turn to the worship of the One God (verse 54). However, the ʿĀd remained arrogant and dismissive, ultimately facing a horrific punishment:
“And As-Saihah (torment – awful cry, etc.) overtook the wrong-doers, so they lay (dead), prostrate in their homes,” (Quran 11:67)
This powerful description serves as a stark reminder of Allah’s (SWT) power and the inevitable consequences of rejecting His message.
The Thamud and the Earsplitting Scream:
The story of the Thamud, another community mentioned in verses 61-68, follows a similar pattern. Prophet Salih (peace be upon him) warned them against worshipping idols and urged them to follow the path of righteousness (verse 61). However, the Thamud, known for their skill in carving dwellings from mountains, mocked his message and persisted in their disbelief. Their defiance resulted in a devastating punishment:
“And As-Saihah (torment – awful cry, etc.) overtook the wrong-doers, so they lay (dead), prostrate in their homes,” (Quran 11:67)
The Power of Supplication:
Surah Hud also showcases the power of supplication. Verse 56 recounts Prophet Hud’s (peace be upon him) plea to Allah (SWT):
” إِنِّي تَوَكَّلْتُ عَلَى اللَّهِ رَبِّي وَرَبِّكُم ۚ مَّا مِن دَابَّةٍ إِلَّا هُوَ آخِذٌ بِنَاصِيَتِهَا ۚ إِنَّ رَبِّي عَلَىٰ صِرَاطٍ مُّسْتَقِيمٍ” (Quran 11:56)
“I put my trust in Allah, my Lord and your Lord! There is not a moving (living) creature but He has grasp of its forelock. Verily, my Lord is on the Straight Path (the truth).” (Quran 11:56)
” فَإِن تَوَلَّوْا فَقَدْ أَبْلَغْتُكُم مَّا أُرْسِلْتُ بِهِ إِلَيْكُمْ ۚ وَيَسْتَخْلِفُ رَبِّي قَوْمًا غَيْرَكُمْ وَلَا تَضُرُّونَهُ شَيْئًا ۚ إِنَّ رَبِّي عَلَىٰ كُلِّ شَيْءٍ حَفِيظٌ” (Quran 11:57)
“So if you turn away, still I have conveyed the Message with which I was sent to you. My Lord will make another people succeed you, and you will not harm Him in the least. Surely, my Lord is Guardian over all things.” (Quran 11:57)
Through his supplication, Prophet Hud highlights the importance of seeking Allah’s (SWT) guidance and following the path of righteousness.
UNVEILING DEEPER MEANINGS
The Significance of Alif, Laam, Ra: The chapter begins with the mysterious Quranic letters, “Alif, Laam, Ra” (verse 1). These opening letters, known as the muqatta’at, appear at the beginning of 29 surah’s in the Quran. While the exact meaning remains elusive, Islamic scholars have offered various interpretations, adding depth and intrigue to Surah Hud.

• Divine Oaths: Some scholars believe these letters represent the names or attributes of Allah (SWT) himself. “Alif” could symbolize “Al-Awwal” (the First), “Laam” could represent “Allah” (SWT), and “Ra” could signify “Ar-Rahman” (the Most Merciful). By interpreting them as divine oaths, the very beginning of the surah emphasizes the importance of the message that follows and its origin from Allah (SWT).
• Mnemonic Device: Another interpretation suggests the letters serve as a mnemonic device, a tool to capture the reader’s attention and aid in memorization. The unique arrangement of these letters is thought to leave a lasting impression on the listener, encouraging them to delve deeper into the verses that follow.
• Inimitability of the Quran: Some scholars propose that the muqatta’at represent a challenge to the disbelievers of Prophet Muhammad’s (PBUH) time. By presenting a unique and seemingly random sequence of letters, they highlight the inimitability of the Quran. The eloquence and beauty of the Quran, they argue, transcends the ability of humans to produce something similar, even if they knew the meaning of the individual letters.

The true meaning of the muqatta’at remains a subject of scholarly debate, adding an element of mystery and intrigue to the beginning of Surah Hud. Regardless of the specific interpretation, these opening letters serve to heighten the reader’s awareness of the significance of the message that unfolds in the verses that follow.
Symbolism in the Stories: The narratives within Surah Hud are not mere historical accounts. They hold deeper symbolic meaning. The powerful wind that destroyed the ʿĀd can be interpreted as a representation of Allah’s (SWT) wrath and His power to inflict punishment upon those who defy Him. Similarly, the terrifying scream faced by the Thamud symbolizes the torment they will face in the afterlife for their rejection of the truth. By understanding these symbolic layers, readers gain a richer appreciation for the lessons embedded within the stories.
A Call to Action: Surah Hud is not simply a historical record; it serves as a call to action for Muslims in every generation. The chapter compels readers to reflect upon their own beliefs and actions. Are they following the path of monotheism and righteousness as championed by Prophet Hud (PBUH) and other prophets mentioned in the surah? By studying these narratives and their consequences, Muslims are encouraged to reaffirm their commitment to worshipping Allah (SWT) alone and living a life in accordance with His teachings.
In conclusion, Surah Hud offers a multifaceted exploration of faith, unity, and the consequences of disobedience. By delving into the deeper meanings of the text, Muslims can gain a richer understanding of the message and its enduring relevance in their own lives.

Note: I started writing this and it got away from me. Rather than fill in the unfinished points, I've just left them there for everyone to consider

Preface

Randyll Tarly on a first read through is a jerk. He tortures Sam, insults Brienne, implements draconian justice and downplays the golden company threat. Prima-Facie, he is a violent commander with little political cunning.
Except for his results. By the end of ADWD
· He receives accolades for every battle fought (I hold fire on the term won)
· He holds the queen in his custody.
· He has a voice at council
· He secured his chosen heir in defiance of westrosi customs
If we assume these things didn’t happen by chance, we can re-examine some of his older achievements, actions, and then try to sort out his motives.

Randyll Tarly as a Commander

Roberts Rebellion

Battle of Ashford

Context: The battle of Ashford was Roberts one defeat in his rebellion. Tarly’s van sailed forward and defeated Roberts host, but the battle was inconclusive. Robert retreated to the stony sept, recovered, regrouped, and when his allies arrived and consolidated forces, used this new army to win the war.

Relevant Sections – directly on point paragraphs:

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion III

Tyrion had to bite his tongue at that. Robb Stark had won more battles in a year than the Lord of Highgarden had in twenty. ~Tyrell's reputation rested on one indecisive victory over Robert Baratheon at Ashford, in a battle largely won by Lord Tarly's van before the main host had even arrived.~

A Storm of Swords - Davos V

"Edric, you ought not boast," Maester Pylos said. "King Robert suffered defeats like any other man. Lord Tyrell bested him at Ashford, and he lost many a tourney tilt as well."

A Storm of Swords - Samwell V

"Your father is an able soldier," King Stannis said. "He defeated my brother once, at Ashford. Mace Tyrell has been pleased to claim the honors for that victory, but Lord Randyll had decided matters before Tyrell ever found the battlefield. He slew Lord Cafferen with that great Valyrian sword of his and sent his head to Aerys." The king rubbed his jaw with a finger. "You are not the sort of son I would expect such a man to have."

A Dance with Dragons - The Griffin Reborn

~He had lost it all at Stoney Sept, in his arrogance.~
~Robert Baratheon had been hiding somewhere in the town, wounded and alone. Jon Connington had known that, and he had also known that Robert's head upon a spear would have put an end to the rebellion, then and there~. He was young and full of pride. How not? King Aerys had named him Hand and given him an army, and he meant to prove himself worthy of that trust, of Rhaegar's love. He would slay the rebel lord himself and carve a place out for himself in all the histories of the Seven Kingdoms.

Other information gleaned from context

· Tarly did not inflict substantial casualties
· Robert won the battle of the trident within a year – Ashford is 282AC and the trident is 283
· Robert fled to and was sheltered in the stony sept, where Jon Connington failed to flush him out. The battle of the bells occurred in 283AC, as did the battle of the trident shortly after

Analysis

Randyll leads the van some distance ahead of the main force, gets into a battle with the rebels, and inflicts minor to moderate casualties before they escape. Tyrell takes the credit.
From a military point of view, if the battle had not been decided before the main force arrived, the war would have likely ended. A much larger force (with assumedly many more horsemen) would have won the battle both more conclusively, and been able to pursue. By all rights, the strategy enforced by Mace Tyrell should have won the war (this theme will come in later in this theory), but for the fact only a fraction of his army engaged far ahead of the main host.
As an aside and jumping ahead a little – Tarly avoids doing this after the blackwater, closing off escape routes and slaughtering everyone. This hints at the fact that Ashford was a tactical mistake.
The first three viewpoints we receive on the battle are of note.
· Tyrion points out the battle was indecisive, and ~decided before the main host arrived~. He focuses on the victory in ‘battle’ as opposed to war.
· Stannis points out how able Randyll is by defeating his brother once at Ashford. Although unable to ascribe any special military strategy to Randyll, he calls him ‘able’ and decided matters before Tyrell arrived. He also flags that Mace Tyrell claimed the honours for the victory and he thinks this undeserved. It’s interesting as it’s Maces host at Ashford, a host that by all rights should have crushed Roberts army in a single battle – given the van alone defeated him. He also ascribes the only kill of note as lord Cafferen
· Maester Pylos points out that Robert lost battles at Ashford and flags it was Tyrell who bested him.
The battle by all appearances, was a farce. Ashford could have ended the war. Arguably, even with the van alone deciding the fight, it very nearly did. Instead, the battle is determined indecisive, there is no ‘impressive kill and capture list’ indicating the host was not captured or killed (as opposed to routed), and Mace has this massive potentially war-ending host not doing much because Robert is in retreat before it arrives.
Furthermore despite all this, Tarly very nearly won the day at Ashford. Robert suffered a serious – but nonfatal wound that seemingly took months (and at least weeks) to recover. The fact that a seriously wounded Robert was able to escape despite distinctive armour and weaponry raises questions of its own.
Finally, when Robert was wounded and hidden in the aftermath whilst he recovered, narratively it allowed JonCon to lay siege to the stony sept. As a parallel, one of the themes I will later touch on is how Tarly changes after this battle, and we know JonCon swears to kill more and become Tywin 2.0. as a direct result of the events at the sept. We see a similar change in Tarly.
It’s also of note that Tarly and Tyrell at this point were on the Targaryen side. This crops up later when we look into other motivations and goals.
Aftermath
So we know that Robert suffers wounds and is somewhat detached from his host (be it they left him in the stoney sept or he scattered off from the main host). We know this as he ends up wounded in the Stoney Sept. After this, the battle of the bells and all the great victories that ended the war occur.
Notably, Tarly has no major military achievements after this battle. Since Mace Tyrell was invested in the siege of Storms end, it can be presumed Tarly was positioned with the main force. The next time we see him is in the battle of 5 kings –

Discussion with Renly – The Siege of Stannis

• Renly outright ignores Tarly when he says they'll be charging into the sun. In renlys conversation with stannis he points out how overwhelmingly strong his force is and how it will be heavy horse charging into boiled leather. He's not wrong, if the armies clash, stannis will be crushed and waiting is potentially disastrous, as stannis may not engage or slow the whole process down.

Battle of the Blackwater

A Clash of Kings - Sansa VII

They came up the roseroad and along the riverbank, through all the fields Stannis had burned, the ashes puffing up around their boots and turning all their armor grey, but oh! the banners must have been bright, the golden rose and golden lion and all the others, the Marbrand tree and the Rowan~, Tarly's huntsman~ and Redwyne's grapes and Lady Oakheart's leaf. All the westermen, all the power of Highgarden and Casterly Rock! ~Lord Tywin himself had their right wing~ on the north side of the river, with Randyll Tarly commanding the center and ~Mace Tyrell the left,~ but the vanguard won the fight. They plunged through Stannis like a lance through a pumpkin, every man of them howling like some demon in steel. And do you know who led the vanguard? Do you? Do you? Do you?"

A Storm of Swords - Catelyn II

"I told you to hold Riverrun," said Robb. "What part of that command did you fail to comprehend?"
"When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork," said the Blackfish, "you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. ~Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly~ near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler's Falls, ~where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges~. They floated down the river, disembarked half a day's ride from the city, and took Stannis in the rear."

We know tywin likes to put his strength on his flanks and in the reserve

Interestingly, Mace is there too, and it’s a tyrell van this time, not tarly
Lord Tywin himself had their right wing on the north side of the river, with Randyll Tarly commanding the center and Mace Tyrell the left, but the vanguard won the fight. They plunged through Stannis like a lance through a pumpkin, every man of them howling like some demon in steel.
^{ACOK 62: SANSA VII}

Analysis

First the parallels. Mace Tyrell is paralleled to Tywin on the two flanks. It is a tyrell in the van who decides the day. Randyll commands the center.
Logistically, the battle is won by Mace Tyrell (whom I love as a character) with a fleet of barges and a huge host already in position (allowing the army to cross quickly enough to intercept the battle of the blackwater). Also the messenger that draws in Tywin’s host comes from Bitterbridge – Tyrell Lands. Given the van wins the battle, there’s a fair argument that Mace could have won the battle alone, albeit with all the support he wins a crushing victory instead.
So Randyll is relegated to an important, but ultimately ancillary position. Whether the battle is won by Tywin or Mace (and by all logistical accounts, it’s Mace), is another question, but the ‘finest soldier in the seven kingdoms’ is once again, somewhat ineffectual. He still commands the center in such a battle, but he displays no logistical or battle prowess in this fight either, just being a renowned commander in the right place at the right time.

Battle of Duskendale

· Lord Randyll defeats a northern army. The army is mostly foot and misplaced
· This time, few excape – XXXX cuts off the retreat.
· Some theories say he was tipped off by Roose Bolton.
· This time he gets the commander
· Figth occurs in FIELDS AND FARMS. Bad terrain for a retreat. Glover TRAPPED against blackwater bay
· Note that Glover had to be captured lest bolton treachery be revealed. Cannot be allowed to send raven.
· Strong implication of a trap and tipoff

A Storm of Swords - Catelyn IV

When they brought him word of the battle at Duskendale, where Lord Randyll Tarly had shattered Robett Glover and Ser Helman Tallhart, he might have been expected to rage.

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

But who would be mad enough to contest Joffrey's rule now, after what had befallen Stannis Baratheon and Robb Stark? There was still fighting in the riverlands, but everywhere the coils were tightening. Ser Gregor Clegane had crossed the Trident and seized the ruby ford, then captured Harrenhal almost effortlessly. Seagard had yielded to Black Walder Frey, ~Lord Randyll Tarly held Maidenpool, Duskendale, and the kingsroad.~

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion III

"No," their father said. "With the war. Varys."
The eunuch smiled a silken smile. "I have such delicious tidings for you all, my lords. Yesterday at dawn our ~brave Lord Randyll caught Robett Glover outside Duskendale and trapped him against the sea. Losses were heavy on both sides, but in the end our loyal men prevailed. Ser Helman Tallhart is reported dead, with a thousand others. Robett Glover leads the survivors back toward Harrenhal in bloody disarray, little dreaming he will find valiant Ser Gregor and his stalwarts athwart his path."~

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion I

"Until Lord Redwyne brings his fleet up, we lack the ships to assail Dragonstone. It makes no matter. Stannis Baratheon's sun set on the Blackwater. ~As for Stark, the boy is still in the west, but a large force of northmen under Helman Tallhart and Robett Glover are descending toward Duskendale. I've sent Lord Tarly to meet them, while Ser Gregor drives up the kingsroad to cut off their retreat.~ Tallhart and Glover will be caught between them, with a third of Stark's strength."

A Storm of Swords - Catelyn IV

When they brought him word of the battle at Duskendale, where ~Lord Randyll Tarly had shattered Robett Glover and Ser Helman Tallhart,~ he might have been expected to rage. Instead he'd stared in dumb disbelief and said, "Duskendale, on the narrow sea? Why would they go to Duskendale?" He'd shook his head, bewildered. "A third of my foot, lost for Duskendale?"
"The ironmen have my castle and now the Lannisters hold my brother," Galbart Glover said, in a voice thick with despair. Robett Glover had survived the battle, but had been captured near the kingsroad not long after.

A Feast for Crows - Brienne II

Lord Randyll Tarly had commanded Joffrey's army, made up of westermen and stormlanders and knights from the Reach. Those men of his who had died here had been carried back inside the walls, to rest in heroes' tombs beneath the septs of Duskendale. The northern dead, far more numerous, were buried in a common grave beside the sea. Above the cairn that marked their resting place, the victors had raised a rough-hewn wooden marker. HERE LIE THE WOLVES was all it said. Brienne stopped beside it and said a silent prayer for them, and for Catelyn Stark and her son Robb and all the men who'd died with them as well.

Analysis

Firstly we start with the obvious comparison. Tarly lets Robert escape when Mace otherwise very nearly won the war. Given another chance, Randyll pins his enemy against the sea and plans to not let a man escape. Having somewhat surrounded the opponent on known land, with reinforcements (Clegane) behind him, he still manages to suffer heavy casualties, and the target (XXXX) escapes.
What a colossal mistake. The only good news is he intercepted enough of the force that it seems no ravens got sent off showing exactly what happened, as if one message got back, the whole red wedding could have been undone.
Now prior posts have analyzed duskendale about allowing paths of retreat, and number of losses, but I think there are three key takeaways
1) The stark contrast between this and his tactics at Ashford
2) The fact that he failed to capture the host and Gregor Clegane had to clean up the mess
3) The fact he suffered heavy losses when by all rights he had every advantage (and still failed to capture the army)
Interestingly, the message that gets to Robb is that Tarly shattered glover. The actual message from Varys is only 1000 were killed, with Tallhart. Now its difficult to say how many foot there were, but it’s not unreasonable to assume that 1000 is less than to around half the force. Clegane captures Glover in the aftermath (thankfully), and Robb gets the report that Tarly shattered the force, when in actuality a good chunk of it was Clegane.
As a sidenote- this is indicative that Clegane actually isn’t a bad commander, and in turn this makes the fact that Edmure Tully threw him back more impressive.
We also don’t hear of any captives other than the ones taken by Clegane. It appears Tarly is putting men to the sword (SEE EARLIER).
Now before we get into conspiracy theories, we see Glover in ADWD conspiring with Madderly to help the starks and Stannis, so it seems this was not some cunning scheme where he secretly got himself captured.
Interestingly, the graves Brienne sees seem to indicate a crushing victory for Tarly, like the one described by Robb. This however is at odds with the report of Varys, and the fact Clegane had to mop up the leftover army. Now there are a few possibilities for this. Varys could be wrong/lying, heavy losses is being thrown around as a relative term (but that seems suspect), or the total of Tarly dead and Clegane’s role is being hidden. The last seems the most likely, Robb hears of a crushing defeat led by Tarly not Clegane (which we know is at least partially false), the dead he kills don’t add up, and there’s no mention of Clegane whom definitely did some of the work.
Also even assuming the whole situation is true and Tarly killed men at a 2/1 ratio, this assumes there are 500 heroes tombs under the septs at Duskendale. Simply put, there may not be that many. The whole aftermath stinks of a coverup. Tarly is getting Cleganes credit (and interestingly, it’s around now that Tywin decides not to give Clegane to oberyn).
Finally we get to the tinfoily bit. Helman garrisoned with Walder Frey to make sure he kept peace. Of the two lords, Helman is arguably more problematic, he knows more of Frey habits (when Tywin is scheming a betrayal) and his nephew is a possible hornwood claimant (cough Roose cough). If there was a conspiracy to kill one and ransom the other – I can see a world where Talhart is the one to be killed. In all reality though, this is a bit too ambitious, and in reality one just died and one escaped – without some super scheme that Tarly was involved in.
So in summary – once again Tarly fails his mission. At best, he bloodies an out of position army whilst taking heavy casualties, with his reinforcements on the way, and half the army breaks free (admittedly into Clegane). This is not a great display of prowess. We also know its possible to capture these men as hostages, as Clegane successfully does so – and Tarly fails to once again. Now it’s not catastrophic as the Northerners are bleeding men and trading troops tit for tat is beneficial, but the battle itself (the thing Randyll is in charge of) is highly unimpressive. The strategic victory goes to Tywin, whom in truth entrusts it as much to Gregor Clegane as to Tarly. As it so happens, Clegane delivers and Tarly doesn’t.

A summary as a commander

Talk about failing upwards
· Charging ahead, he is able to turn a crushing win into an indecisive one which ultimately leads to Roberts Rebellion succeeding
· He gives counsel to Renly about the sun when renly knows that the sheer strength of his cavalry makes the issue moot. Renly all but ignores him.
· He doesn’t appear to do much during the battle of the blackwater
· He manages to mess up essentially an ambush at Duskendale despite reinforcements being on the way
· As a result of the 4 above points, he is given, lands, titles, honors and a position on the small council.
Upon actually reviewing his achievements and each individual battle, I’ve 180’d on Tarly. George RR Martin does a great job building him up, and having everyone describe him as a great commander, but actually unpacking his battles, he looks pretty underwhelming. The most important battle he won was Ashford, but that was a strategic catastrophe which otherwise could have potentially let Mace Tyrell win the war. Afterwards he’s carefully managed, with Renly outright dismissing him, Mace keeping the key positions of command in other people’s hands and Tywin going so far as to dispatch a trusted force behind him in the event he fails again – WHICH HE DOES.

Politicks, Loyalties and Conspiracies

There’s a lot to get through so I’m not going to source everything here. Rather, I’ll list dot points, and we will be collecting everything under theories. In time it may be worth sourcing this all, but for now, I want to get something out – so it’ll be shortform
· Historically house is blackfyre
· Renly Sworn NOT STANNIS
· Joined at bitterbridge to Renly
· Shadowbaby and killing others
· VIEWS ON MAESTERS
· Killing Stannis supporters at bitterbridge
· Saving Brienne
· Helping Brienne / Bewilderment
· Views on Women and Strongmen
· Sam, Maesters, the Marches and Strength
· Maidenpool Rulership
· Renown amonst common men
· Downplaying the Golden Company
· Bravosi Debts
· Taking the QUEEN ahead of Mace Tyrell

Theoreis Stemming off Data

The Blackfyre Theory

Let’s assume that Randyll supported the Blackfyres because his house traditionally were Blackfyre Loyalists. This is a little thin on evidence, but quite a few of his actions also support this, lending some credence to the theory
1) He swore to Renly not Stannis.
a. Stannis was 17 or 18 when he held storms end. He is approximately 13 years older than Renly, making Renly 5 at the time. This means that during Roberts Rebellion, for all relevant purposes, Renly was a non-participant, whilst Stannis actively fought against the dragons. If Randyll is a dragon supporter, his repulsion at joining Stannis is apparent.
b. In fact, he goes as far as to kill stannis supporters at bitterbridge to consolidate the reach forces. This is interesting as it contrasts stannis whom takes pains to not kill the karstarks to a man once he realizes their treason.
2) He downplays the golden company
a. At the end of AFWC, Randyll is downplaying the golden company as much as he can. If we assume he is pro-dragon, this gives time for the blackfyre cause to swell, as he delays Kevan Lannister to the best of his ability
3) He hates the Maesters
a. Between the Grand Maester Conspiracy [LINK], lady Dustin’s general hatred of Maesters and Marwyn’s comments about Maesters and Dragons, it seems credible that dragon supporters may have cause to mistrust Maesters. Indeed, we get hints of this from Doran, and a general mistrust of Maesters by some of the lesser lords.
i. "I would need a bucket, with this pain. Thank you, but no. I want my wits about me. I'll have no more need of you tonight."
b. This explains also why he is so determined Sam will not become a Maester and why he drives him to the nights watch. If he is a loyalist, he’s never going to let a member of his family into an enemy order. If Sam is given any sort of free reign in a role other than lord, he’s going to end up a Maester (indeed even at the nights watch he ends up there, despite his protests and fears of his fathers wroth).
4) Do we actually see any trouble in the marches. I don’t think we do and it’s only STANNIS who fears dorne through the marches, not Tarly or Tyrell. In fact, this area is left undefended when they march on the blackwater.
a. I have a sub-theory that despite complaining a lot, we don’t see any real antagonism between Dorne and the reach throughout the series, just some loud complaining that makes us think of antagonism. Oberyn hints at this to Tyrion.
5) Killing Florents
a. Florents have ties to Stannis
b. Florents are Tyrell rivals
c. Florents instantly defect to stannis. Note they were set aside by dragons over highgarden
d. Their protests were denied by King Aegon I, perhaps because the Florents had fought House Targaryen when the Tyrells did not.
e. https://www.reddit.com/asoiaf/comments/3tr6gx/spoilers_all_house_of_the_week_house_florent/
i. Theories florents Green
6) This is of course also consistent with him racing Ahead of Mace Tyrell’s army and having the Tyrell queen taken into his personal custody. Unfortunately, this bodes badly for our lovely doe-eyed Margery. Oh well.
7) ~If it were up to me, I would send them all to the Night's Watch, and Connington with them. The Wall is where such scum belong."~ He’s setting it up so the only legitimate claimant of JonCon’s lands is in fact, JonCon. Obviously a new lord can be appointed, but this suggested move adds legitimacy to the blackfyre cause, removing the heir apparent and putting JonCon back in his ancestral lands without a real challenger.

1) The ‘show of strength / toxic masculinity theory’
a. This theory has to do with Tarly appearing competent millirarily rather than being competent. He doles harsh justice and havy discipline, which in some ways hides his lackluster results as a commander. I should note this is the weakest of the three theories, but it sort of feeds into the other two.
b. This would be indicative of his hatred for Sam. The moment the ‘veil’ of masculinity and strength is lifted, his actual achievements are lackluster
c. After ashford he appears much more brutal than before. We have no indication he was brutal pre Ashford, and post ashford he’s executing enemies, cornering and murdering northmen to a man (as best he can at least) and doling out harsher justice than his peers
d. Every character who speaks of Tarly speaks of his millirary accolades. I think his ‘larger than life’ persona has played at least a part in this, and Tarly looks the part as the veteran commander.
e. I ought to note this theory doesn’t stop Tarly from playing the game of thrones, it just suggests he isn’t an exceptional tactical commander. Logistically, he has always been with the winning side as a vassal, he’s been able to spin every battle to gain honors and accolades, and he has a knack for being in the right place at the right time (declaring for renly early, being in the van at ashford etc.)
f. All that aside, this theory also doesn’t stop Tarly from being a jerk. Given how he acts to Sam and both towards and around Brienne, we are naturally inclined to mislike him as a harsh leader.
2) Not as dumb as he looks theory
a. He’s taken the queen into his personal Custody. We literally heard from Renly back in book 1 – he who holds the XXXX holds the crown. With all the chaos in the recent books, it’s easy to miss, but this is a huge move in the game of thrones. The Tyrells do not have the queen. Tarly does.
b. As far as I can tell, he’s never been at real risk in a battle since Ashford. He had backup and numbers at duskendale, a massive host at the blackwater, The Siege of Storms End was just a great big preservation of army by Mace whilst Roberts rebellion raged, and the Siege on Stannis was totally lopsided but for magic shadow-baby.
c. Dorne does not seem to have acted against him once nor demanded concessions. [CHECK]. For a lord in the Dornish Marches which have been tumultuous for years, this is somewhat of a big deal. He also seems to be unafraid of moving his forced forward – we have no indication he left levies to protect himself from Dorne, hinting that he wasn’t afraid of Dorne misbehaving (even if only to harry border towns, a bit like Bolton grabbing up the hornwood lands).
d. He sucks up to the bravosi Banker when all the debts are being called in. We have this picture of this strong, just, military man, but the banker scene shows he’s not just a sword arm, and he knows when to suck up. This is important as it shows he is at least considering the wider world and the future outside of the battles, as opposed to a certain dwarf whom never actually meets the bankers.
e. He has turned a bunch of mediocre achievements into being renowned as the greatest soldier in the realm. By all rights, Stannis and Robb are much better commanders (with the caveat that Robb was only good tactically). If we want to get nasty, Mace Tyrell has only won crushing victories – with the exception of ashford (messed up by Tarly) and storms end (where he lost no troops in a rebellion that depleted most of the realm).
i. The most competent appearing thing he said was to not charge into the sun, which was largely irrelevant when plated heavy cavalry is charging into boiled leather. As Renly said to Stannis, his force wouldn’t survive first impact, so this whole sun business is a bit silly.
ii. Arguably the most competent thing was executing all the soldiers considering going over to Stannis, but I’m not sure if this is truly competent or just brutality – Stannis did not do the same with the Karstarks in a similar position.
f. He’s bypassed succession laws. By getting rid of Sam he has set himself up with his chosen heir. Look at the thorny knot Tywin tied himself with Tyrion, whom still arguably is the rightful heir to Castelry Rock (which he made full use of with the Second Suns). We know Maesters can be kicked out of the order (see our favourite necromancer), and can be used to play with succession (Aemon is a good example, albeit he said no) and I don’t really see Sam as a priest.
i. There’s actually a good question as to whether he would have killed Sam. The gods hate kinslayers, and the threat sufficed. If we assume tarly isn’t an idiot, he would have realized the threat likely sufficient.
g. Given how he sets himself up at Maidenpool, its hinted that the Maidenpool land is part of his reward for the blackwater. We never hear of exactly ‘what’ Tarly’s reward is, except in the aftermath he’s patrolling Duskendale (still seemingly with house Rykker),, Maidenpool and the kings road, and seems to be setting himself up in Maidenpool for the long haul. In AFFC, Tarly’s heir is married off to Eleanor Mooton (the seeming heiress to maidenpool) and Tommen pardons Moonton. Maidenpool is a major port in the world of Ice and Fire, which would make it a fine reward[[1]](#_ftn1).
1.

Other key takeaways

BRIENNE THING

A Feast for Crows - Brienne III

Randyll Tarly solved the mystery the day he sent two of his men-at-arms to summon her to his pavilion. His young son Dickon had overheard four knights laughing as they saddled up their horses, and had told his lord father what they said.

… "The gods made men to fight, and women to bear children," said Randyll Tarly. "A woman's war is in the birthing bed."
Someone was coming down the cellar steps. Brienne pushed her wine aside as a ragged, scrawny, sharp-faced man with dirty brown hair stepped into the Goose. He gave the Tyroshi sailors a quick look and Brienne a longer one, then went up to the plank. "Wine," he said, "and none o' your horse piss in it, thank'e."

JUSTICE THING

Battle of the Blackwater – a step Sideways

In short
Randyll Tarly is a shrewd Blackfyre loyalist who now has custody of the queen, a position on the small council and whom is not considered a political threat. He’s not half the commander he’s made out to be, probably has anti-maester sentiment and is possibly friendly with Doran Martell. And he has an army.
This has been quite a ride and I’m sure I got many details wrong so let’s end on a high note. Given all this, I expect Randyll to sacrifice Margery and prove ser pounce’s lineage to the age of conquest. Tommen will blindly stamp a document marrying himself to the cat, the white walkers will be appeased (their problem is only humans), and everyone lives happily ever after except for Danerys who dies.
Maidenpool
https://preview.redd.it/4gfx1jxsbd1d1.png?width=217&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6c648fe2853a80f249aeae5546a21b38b4123e9

https://preview.redd.it/815bg8h7ad1d1.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb628eebff1bbc628424cb630897e8539dcfe9ed

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