Forecast arima model using excel

Looking to get an automower for my mom, her yard is under 1/2 acre flat.
Found a new in box Cub Cadet XR3 3000 (from 2019 it seems, old stock?) for a good price ($450), but I am unable to find any sort of feedback on how well Club Cadet ones perform, reliable? Anyone have any insight or feedback?
From sitting in a box for along time, maybe the battery pack is toast, I am handy enough to rebuild battery packs, but how about drive motors/gears, spare parts, etc? I see parts listed on cubcadet.ca which should cover the majority of maintenance items. Cub Cadet used to be a good brand in the past but recently their tractor forums seem to indicate they're made cheap these days. Not sure on the automower side of things, this model doesn't come up on any forums.
thanks for any advice
Jonathan

I've been drinking mate for years. Last week, I was looking for some barbacua mate and I found a site, based in Germany, that sells Brazilian barbacua. They also sell mate gear, including pricey bombillas. Some of their models are advertized as having "no welding". Now, I have only one bombilla that is welded together at the bottom, a Chinese cheapie. The others have clam-shell filters with threads that screw into the bombilla.
I wonder why some people wouldn't want a welding seam. I know that it collects gunk that becomes visible after about a dozen of uses, but I manage to get rid off it with a brush easily. This does not mean that the bombilla is sterile, but no bombilla is. And, to be frank, how do you know your filter is clean if you cannot inspect the inside? A dishwasher can only do so much, the plastic straw controversy taught me that.
Would a welding seam be a dealbreaker to you? I'm curious about your answers.

I've always been the kind of person to struggle with how to rate media. For a bit i used a 3 ⭐️ system, where the stars roughly equated to 3 ⭐️ excellent (~10-9),2 ⭐️good (~8-7), 1⭐️ okay (~6-5) and 0 ⭐️ bad (<5)
While this worked out okay, it was a bit unintuitive; Although the 3 ⭐️ system has been around for almost a century, the 5 ⭐️ system (with 1 ⭐️ being the lowest) is by far the most popular. Thus, if i were to tell someone i thought a movie was a 1 ⭐️, they might not get what i meant without explaining, and "mediocre" wasn't what I had in mind for the middle of a scale anyways.
Thus, I have devised a new system, the 3 ❤️ system, and it goes like this
3 ❤️ Love it,
2 ❤️ Like it,
1 ❤️ Mixed,
0 ❤️ Do not like it
This solves the confusion of people assuming i'm rating lower than I am, as well as making the rating scale more subjective than objective. To me at least, "Mixed" feels better than "Mediocre", as often times I still enjoy things about middle of the pack movies, I just feel they have noticeable flaws.
Anyways, I'd love feedback on this system. It's possible it's very derivative, but I wanted to keep simplicity key, and I find giving myself 4 categories to lump things into about the right amount.

Please note: I've mentioned some products and brands here just because I use them regularly in my work. Nothing has been received for their references in this article.

This is a simplified step-by-step guide to help dog owners understand the steps towards allergy diagnosis and management. Unless the logic behind the steps are communicated properly by the vet, I understand that the process may appear slow, frustrating and not always clear. It is important to keep a good dialogue with the vet throughout the process and not to expect a quick-fix after the first consultation.
Also note that each case is handled differently based on many factors such as the owner's financial limitations, country-specific norms and the veterinarians habits and experiences. Please note that this is just an example on how I myself approach allergic dogs. Other veterinarians may have completely different routines that works for them.
Common presentation:
Allergies typically begin to develop in dogs between the ages of 1 and 3 years old and usually present with one or more of the following symptoms:

• Itching and/or skin redness.
• Licking of legs and paws.
• Recurrent ear issues.
• Anal gland issues/butt scooping.
• Gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea and gas.

There are plenty of differential diagnoses for each of these symptoms. For the sake of simplicity we must assume other conditions have already been ruled out, otherwise I would probably have to write a small book.
1: Anti-Parasitic treatment
Even if I strongly suspect allergies, I usually always start out an allergy consultations by ruling out parasitic infestations. A skin scraping can be performed and investigated under the microscope, but a negative skin scrape does not rule out parasites; it only rules out parasites at that small patch of skin where the sample was taken. It's a simple and cheap treatment, so if the issue happens to be parasitic it will save the owner a lot of time and money. If the symptoms are severe, I provide anti-itching drugs for a few days while the trial anti-parasitic treatment has time to work.
(Hypothyroidism can also cause allergy-like symptoms and should be ruled out (blood test) before initiating a full allergy investigation.)
2: Hypoallergenic diet trial:
If the symptoms are still present after anti-parasitic treatment course, I start the dog on a prescription Allergy diet for 8 weeks. We use Royal Canin Anallergenic since it's the most extensively hydrolyzed diet available. Hydrolyzed diets contain proteins that have been chemically 'chopped' into tiny subunits, so small that the pet's immune system cannot recognize them as allergens. Since they are not recognized by the immune system they will elicit no allergic reactions. During the food trial it is important that the dog ONLY eats the prescribed diet and avoids everything else, including treats and human foods. If the dog is severely affected I will provide anti-itching medicines for a few weeks at the start of the food trial, but it is important that the medicines do not mask the effect of the food change for us to know what actually worked.
If the symptoms disappear after the 8 week allergy trial diet, then great, we may conclude that food is the cause of the pet's allergies. I will then usually do elimination diets to figure out what types of food the dog actually tolerates. Some dogs may have to remain on prescription allergy diets for the rest of their lives. Some vets perform a food challenge test (Back to the diet they reacted on previously) after symptoms have cleared to check for recurrence as a way to confirm their diagnosis.
FOOD ALLERGY BLOOD TEST: These tests are somewhat controversial as they are NOT tools for diagnosis or identifying specific food allergens. However, they can be useful during a food trial in determining what protein sources the dog is less likely to have an allergic reaction to.
3. Environmental allergy screening + trial treatment.
If the allergy symptoms are still present after 8 weeks of prescription allergy diet, the cause of the allergy is more likely to be environmental (or both). At this point I usually recommend doing a blood test screening or panel against specific environmental allergens, such as pollen or mites. I always offer to do the blood test during step 2, but many clients prefer to go stepwise.
While waiting for the blood results I usually initiate treatment with Cytopoint injections. Depending on the severity I might add Apoquel short term for relief as it is very quick-acting and effective drug. For very severe cases corticosteroids might be required. I prefer Cytopoint for long term use over Apoquel and (especially) glucocorticoids due to having a more specific mechanism of action, while the alternatives are more broad-acting immuno-suppressive drugs. However, each patient responds differently - Finding the ideal treatment is usually a case of trial and error and there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Sometimes a combination is required.
NOTE: Neither Cytopoint or Apoquel cure allergies. They provide relief to the pet by blocking some of the symptom's pathways. However they are still very important medicines for improving the quality of lives for thousands of pets with allergies.
\ Cytopoint: Injections lasting 4-8 weeks.*
\ Apoquel: Daily tablet or chewable.*
4. Immunotherapy:
Immunotherapy is the closest we currently get to 'curing' environmental allergies. Please note that immunotherapy has nothing to do with food allergies which can only be managed nutrionally.
The results from the blood panel previously mentioned can be used to create a custom solution containing the most important allergens specific to the dog. The solution is injected or given orally in gradually increasing concentrations. This procedure desensitizes the immune system to said allergens, alleviating the symptoms over time.
It is worth noting that approximately 50% of patients will respond excellent to immunotherapy treatment, 25% will have good response, and 25% will not respond at all. Immunotherapy is no immediate relief and it may take months before any effect is observed. Concurrent treatment is usually necessary for symptom relief. Glucocorticoids should not be administered during immunotherapy as it will considerably decrease the success rate.
Additional (environmental) allergy management tips:

• Regular baths: For pets with environmental allergies, regular washing will remove allergens from the fur and may alleviate symptoms. Bedding, blankets etc in daily use should also be cleaned regularly.
• Allergen-neutralizing spray (such as Allergone): These products bind to proteins inactivating their effectiveness as allergens, preventing them from becoming airborne indoors and making them easier to clean. Allergone can be sprayed anywhere (beds, couches, blankets, carpets etc.) and is long lasting.
• Symptom Tracking: For seasonal allergies, symptom tracking can be very valuable. If you learn what months of the year the allergy starts, treatment can be initiated beforehand as a preventive measure. Preventing seasonal flair-ups will potentially save you veterinary expenses and your pet a lot of suffering.

I’m setting up an ETL pipeline using Prefect as an orchestrator.
Prefect flows are deployed as Cloud Run Jobs via a Prefect CloudRunJob block.
I have a custom image which the cloud run jobs use, which contains my prefect flows and also dbt models.
I want to run dbt core from within the cloud run jobs. In setting up dbt I usually use a profiles.yml file with a GCP service account key file for authentication to GCP.
What would be the best way to set up the profiles.yml file for use of dbt within the cloud run jobs? Is there a default SA key file in cloud run jobs? Or perhaps there’s a better way to authenticate.
Sorry if this doesn’t make much sense, I’m new to all this!
Thanks!

I have family of 4 with kayaks and I’m looking for a kayak trailer as well as looking at a new car for the family. I was thinking 4Runner since we already have a Camry, but the fuel mileage is terrible and I’d like to take some long trips for fishing down to Florida. The idea of doubling my MPG over a 4Runner seems very appealing. Of course in that case we could just take the Camry and only use the 4Runner when we need 4wd. I’m estimating on the high side at 900 pounds as I will mount a toolbox on the tongue of the trailer to mount rod holders too and to carry gear. If you have a hitch on your Hybrid Avalon in those year models, I would be interested in knowing the brand and where you bought it as well. Thanks in advance for your feedback and insights!

So I bought the Treasure Planet PS1 game to play in my PS3, and the game works fine but the FMVs are glitchy and corrupted. When looking it up online, I found on the PS3 Dev Wiki that this literally just an issue that happens when trying to play the game on a PS3, but that "config fixes [it]". I investigated further what this means, and it looks like I have to hack my PS3 to apply this fix. Is this correct, or is there is a hackless method?
Context: I am using a super slim model PS3, I don't have a PS1 or PS2, and the PS1 game in question was factory sealed. I know from experience that there can be dud copies like in DVDs, but I'm confident this is a good copy.

This is going to be an odd one but I am looking for a new game I can put a few hundred hours in. I don't like strategic games where I have to make decisions a lot like in Civ but I do like games where 30 minutes into the session I suddenly have 20 wiki pages open. The games I used until now to fill that hole were:

• Guild Wars 2
• Warframe
• Terraria

So basically the things these games have in common that I really like were:

• Sandboxy - not quite as sandboxed as Minecraft but a whole new world with tons of mechanics and loot tables to look up in wikis. The thing I hate about Minecraft and like about these games is that those games are usually progression driven or lead in a certain way. I really need this.
• No competitiveness and no forced multiplayer - I'm done with comp pvp games and I get severe anxiety when I have to play with a group of randoms. Guild Wars and Warframe I played mostly solo or in a group of friends that I know. There are tons of things you could do solo in those games so the game I am looking for shouldn't force me into a multiplayer setting like most PvP focused games would.
• Mechanical skill over strategic skill - I don't like when I have to do a lot of thinking in combat and prefer when I gather gear, get accustomed to a build or weapon and then basically spam the rotation I learned with that. I don't want to make new strategic decisions midfight. Raid Bosses in GW2 for example were a flowcharty knowledge check for me and not a strategic fight.
• Progression - I love progression. Every game I play needs progression. It is what gets me addicted to a game. Game loop consists of gear -> boss -> new gear -> new boss? Perfect. Another players showed off with a sick ass weapon with the most complicated crafting recipe in existence that will take me a few days to complete? Count me in. The game starts out nice and becomes greater and better the longer you play and the farther you progress because you unlock the real killer features by playing the game? Fuck yeah. Achievements that unlock new achievements that unlock exclusive gear or features? <3

Games that you don't need to suggest:

• WoW - I've tried it several times and never enjoyed it. I had more fun playing FFXIV and GW2
• Kenshi - I never actually tried it but it looks like the type of sandbox game that I am too uncreative for.
• Anything TES or similar Single Player RPGs - I've played Oblivion, TES Online and things like Gothic and Risen in the past. I don't like those games idk.
• Destiny 2 - Invasive Anticheat that doesn't allow me to play.
• Comp pvp games - no Valorant, no League, no Siege none of those. I've played enough League and don't need a new comp game because they freak me out and usually come with very invasive anti cheat.

Games I've considered:

• FFXIV - ARR Story held me a bit back and was a pain to play. I'd probably try again and skip dialogue this time but the pay model is cringe.
• Elden Ring/DS - I don't know these games but according to a friend they are also the type of game where you have multiple wiki pages open at all times.

I will probably edit this post if I remember more examples.

I'm working on a surveillance application where we want to simultaneously process streams from up to 80 IP cameras on a single on-premises server. For each camera, we're:

1. decoding a frame from the incoming RTSP stream
2. performing pre-processing (blur removal, etc)
3. running inference on that frame using a YOLOv8 model
4. parsing results and triggering downstream logic based on what objects are detected

This is a lot of processing to do for 80 cameras at once! Plus, we want to process at 15+ FPS. I've been able to run 32 simultaneous cameras on a vast.ai system with an RTX A6000 GPU at about 5 FPS. Currently I just rely on Python's multiprocessing module, where a dedicated process is started for each camera stream. The underlying OS handles the scheduling of all tasks, and seems to do it pretty efficiently (it runs close to 100% CPU and GPU utilization).
Has anyone worked on a project involving simultaneous inferencing on many multiple cameras? I'd be interested in any input you have. What hardware did you use? How was the program architected to handle processing of all the streams?

I finished my 70,000 word fantasy novel and I'm looking to format. I found an excellent software Vellum, but it's only good for Mac computers. I don't own a Mac so I'm looking for other programs I could use. Any suggestions?

I have always had some of the lower model forerunner watches. Im currently on my 2nd 245. I love this watch! I use it to track my running/aerobic activities but not weight lifting. I love using it to track my runs and it seems accurate. I also wear the watch almost everyday but not at night. I was wondering how accurate is the maintaining/recovery/peaking/detraining stuff? I just had about a week off running and weight training. But at work I was walking a ton, moving a lot of weight in the form of logs and generally going hard for 8 hours a day for 6 days. Well my watch went to recovery, and after a couple runs it now says im peaking. Im still tired/sore from the work stuff and figure this can’t be accurate. Is there a watch that is good at telling daily activity without actually tracking an activity? What does the watch think when all the sudden your HR is about 100bpm for extended times? Maybe I am reading to far into this but it was just a thought I had.

• Total budget and country of purchase: USA, 2k preferred, can push it
• Do you prefer a 2 in 1 form factor, good battery life or best specifications for the money? Pick or include any that apply. Good battery life and light weight.
• How important is weight and thinness to you? Thinness is whatever, but weight is important. My Alienware 15 R3 (7 lb) plus 2 lb PSU is killing my back.
• Which OS do you require? Windows, Mac, Chrome OS, Linux. Windows
• Do you have a preferred screen size? If indifferent, put N/A. 16"
• Are you doing any CAD/video editing/photo editing/gaming? List which programs/games you desire to run. some games, mostly office stuff and work
• If you're gaming, do you have certain games you want to play? At what settings and FPS do you want? Destiny 2, fortnite, don't mind lower settings, probably will do more games as time goes on.
• Any specific requirements such as good keyboard, reliable build quality, touch-screen, finger-print reader, optical drive or good input devices (keyboard/touchpad)? Really liking the higher fidelity screens, glossy, mini LED or OLED. Also I listen to music at work on the laptop speakers so good speakers would be nice.
• Leave any finishing thoughts here that you may feel are necessary and beneficial to the discussion.

Trying to figure a new laptop. I think I have it down to the Yoga Pro 9i vs the G16. Both have nice screens and the core ultra processor for more efficiency. I want something I'm not tethered to the wall when going to work or going to a meeting at another office and I can just pull it out and use it without power for a while. Light weight is key, both seem adequate there. And I do play some games. Whether overnight or on travel. Nothing crazy right now but I want the capability.
The G16 would be fine at 1700 but only 16 gb ram. I could push up to the $2900 model with 32 gb and a 4080 but that's a lot more money. The yoga has a smaller battery though 84 Whr vs 90 Whr but not sure if it'll make a difference. But the G16 seems to run less power draw through the processor maybe. Screen is brighter? But mini-LED is wonky with HDR I hear?
I'm probably missing more too. I have 16 gb RAM on my alienware right now and it's adequate, but not sure how limiting that will be going forward for another 5 ish year use period?

so basically i have recorded reference video of myself and now i want to use a model i created to go over the top of myself in the video at every frame so by the end, my model would be animated to replicate my movements in the video.
does anyone have any tips for doing this so i can make sure it turns out good?
i tried looking for tutorials but they were either for 2D or they were very short and weren't very descriptive of the process.
i have searched for both rotomation and rotoscoping but i haven't been able to find what im looking for. i can only find tutorials for drawing over a video which i don't need to do since i have made a model or videos showing off the results of rotomation rather than any explanation
i have a vague idea of what to do but I'm just looking for tips/ tutorials to improve my results

I've finally started reading pretty voraciously again this year, and I've been looking into getting an eReader for travel and as a space saver. I was in love with what I saw of the Kobo Libra 2, but the general consensus is that it's being discontinued for newe future models (though there's been some mixed information). I feel like I'm back to square one on my search so I would love some advice!
I'd prefer black and white from a pricing and battery usage standpoint, but I'm not totally opposed to color. I can't see myself taking notes, just occasionally highlighting but mostly reading. I plan to use it with Libby for the most part, with potentially utilizing an "unlimited" plan or buying the occasional book. I would prefer to have a backlight so I can read at night/in the evenings and for accessibility, I need page turn buttons. Kindles are not an option.
Thanks in advance, y'all!

I started my company in 2013 as a broadcast technology company, at the time I was still employed as an engineer at a company in the same field and was very happy until I realised that they had no further ambition beyond their legacy products and services… so eventually around 2018 I decided to take on my own vision myself and go big.
I was proven right 18 months after the fact when my previous company struggled to make it out of COVID, like many other businesses sadly, and my company soured in the same period with the strategies they had turned down when I was still employed.
However, I’ve realised over the years that there is no such thing as “black business” but a political slogan. Around 2020 I decided to bring in partners and employees which were all black, towing the line so to speak… and since then it’s been turmoil in the business. Everything was smooth sails until I got successful, everyone seemed to turn against the only person in the network that was bringing in the contracts for our “consortium” to grow. I had never considered myself as a black anything I just want to be the best and help share my success with other black businesses which we are told there are constantly squeezed out of the economy. Today all of them are either competition using exactly my methods and IP or they outright just steal equipment.
The “do it yourself” thing does not work if you are trying to challenge an industry that has since gone legacy, the SA broadcast industry is a shame in my IMO and part of it is the inclusion of such bad actors who are in it solely to depress and extract but never want to invest on a larger scale into the development of the industry which why it’s common for artists and talent to die broke.
To effectively challenge an industry one needs to build a block of companies and expertise that can offer innovative solutions while still supporting the legacy methodology otherwise you take on too much at once and lose trust trying to make it all Gel instead of focusing on your strength and collaborating with like minded businesses.
I’ve done tons of work with other cultures, and my experience so far is isolation.They already have alliances built and to challenge them is hard cos they prefer their own kind handling essentials aspects which I can respect but how does one grow a business particularly if you’re black without the support of your own people?
I boil it all down to a problematic black culture particularly in relation to money and wealth building. I don’t even want to start talking about the horrors of GOV, where you are not black enough unless you’re disabled or female. If a black SAn male is not a level 1 BEE company then what is it? Even after all of that it takes over 5 months to collect payments I’m out 500k as we speak.
At this rate I need massive funding to avoid collaborating and risk failing doing it all yourself, or get absorbed into a corporate. This is on a large scale Ofcos there are pockets of excellence but in my field at the very top I’m still the only one in my niche competing against the SABCs, Multichoices of this world… even being top 5 on the continent it’s sad I cannot grow with my own people. I’ve lost tons… am I crazy?

My budget is around 15k, and I found these two cars
https://www.john-clark.co.uk/volkswagen/used-cars/17697621-volkswagen-polo-mk6%20hatchback%205dr%201.0%20tsi%20110ps%20r-line/?finances%5Bdeposit%5D=3598.875&finances%5BproductName%5D=Personal%20Contract%20Purchase&finances%5Bterm%5D=48&finances%5BproductType%5D=Personal%20Contract%20Purchase&finances%5BannualMileage%5D=10000&finances%5Bdescription%5D=
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202404198850606?sort=relevance&twcs=true&advertising-location=at_cars&aggregatedTrim=R-Line&body-type=&colour=&fuel-type=&make=Volkswagen&model=Polo&page=1&postcode=ab39%202dp&transmission=&year-to=2024&fromsra
The question is I don’t know if this is a good choice, as I do not know that much about cars. Apparently the engine size might be too small? Also because the car is quite small, then the reliability for the future isn’t the best?
I thought the car looked decent, as it had nice features and was comfortable on the interior, and the exterior looked relatively sporty.