So, certain people feel that Dan was falsely labeled a sexual predator & they have been supporting Dan's decision to sue the makers of QOS.
Without going into graphic details, "All That" alum Lori Beth Denberg publicly came out and said that Dan preyed on her & that the guy was also a zoophile.
Obviously, we don't know for a fact if Dan is a pedophile, but I feel like the people defending Dan don't know what a pedophile actually is.
There are pedos who have never sexually abused children & they are called 'non-offending pedophiles".
Even if Dan is not a pedo, his treatment of Lori Beth Denberg proves that he is a sexual predator & the doc proved that he was abusive in other ways as well.
In late 2023, "Zoey 101" star Matthew Underwood sent an email to a fan in which he discredited the victims of Dan's abuse & called people who were criticizing Dan online "QANON supporters".
When Underwood wrote & sent that email, Angelique Bates, Jennette Mccurdy, Alexa Nikolas, & many others had already come forward about the abuse they endured by Dan & he discredited them by saying "Dan was nice to me, so he's not a bad guy". To this day, Underwood has never publicly or privately apologized to the victims of Dan's behavior.

Some Vinfans comment that they are happy customers of Vinhomes and Vinfast.
Unlike others, I do not say they are lying! I do know some Vietnamese guys make many billions VND profit with Vinhomes in the past, are living in Vinhomes Riverside, and driving a Vinfast EV without problems (or minor ones).
But they are dick heads, in this internet age, to not know other Vinhomes buyers got cheated by Vuong Pham with a false land title promise, or other Vinfast owners got broken front wheels or got stranded on streets, highways. They certainly do not know Vinfast cars having to replace the motor twice, I have reported this story in this sub. And compared to other car brand, the failure rate of Vinfast is much higher. It is the rate, stupid. Wait until the relative of the Pleasanton's crash sue Vinfast.
Some did experience errors with Vinfast but clearly they are Vinfans: instead of demanding money back from Vuong Pham, they show sympathy and kiss Vuong Pham's ass because they think that is a way to show support for Vietnam, to show patriotism. Not. And they pay extra money for the fake "patriotism", paid more for Vinfast cars than other countries (oh please, there is no whole car import tax for Vinfast, they are manufactured in Vietnam, and the special tax for EV is only 3%).
Vuong Pham is a shady guy selling a buggy car, one that already killed people.
Vuong Pham is a shady guy using marketing tricks to dupe cusomers and using stock tricks to dupe retail investors for his pump and dump game.
Got it, Vinfans?
So I make this post to once again point out how stupid Vinfans are: they do not have any idea of math and probability. They live in a world where there is no competition from other car makers, Vuong Pham has unlimited money with Vinhomes, and their Vinfast have no errors or few ones, all the big problems reported by other owners are either false or somehow will not happen to them luckily.
Reality will hit hard when Vinfast goes bankrupt. And I have no sympathy for those stupid Vinfans.

So i checked out and so I can finally smile again.
I have been using AirBNB a lot of times, but this one was.... special.
Can anyone let me know if there is anything that my host has missed?

1. Property was not the one we booked. Host "asked" us if we would be ok with an alternative one. (This would not be an issue on its own, but put me into "suspicious mode" already)
2. Host failed to show up for the sign in, mobile phone was off and didnt answer (Had to open a call with AirBNB)
3. Host requested payment outside of AirBNB
4. Host communicated only outside of AirBNB (Odd... esp after point 2)
5. Host demanded "we resolve the payment issue" or she kicks us out
6. Replacement apartment did not have features promised (WIFI,Coffee maker, basic kitchen utensils)
7. Host threatened us to break into the apartment and change the locks (Illegal in Germany)
8. Host demanded that we move during a 3 day stay since we were not in the right apartment (Which THEY gave us )
9. Host said we must move since they rented this apartment out
10. Host threatened us with a lawyer - Sue for damages, lost rental profit
11. Host insulted us multiple times
12. Host lied about communication with AirBNB - Claimed they demanded that we move out
13. Host claimed we are "liable for the payment" and we must pay them till "1 PM", then 1 Hour, then now (Within 10 minutes)
14. Host requested demanded we tell noone that they are renting on AirBN
15. Host demanded we sign a paper that we wont give a bad rating

My replies to all these were basically that she should contact airBNB to sort it out.
I hope this issue is solved soon, since i supplied all screenshots to airbnb and I try my best to remove this host from the platform now.
If YOU are reading this "Karen": Bye ;)

Y’all, I’m really not sure what’s still around. This list is somewhat edited, but please still make sure to check on all the regular events before you make big plans – I may have missed something.
Events are listed by the day. Events that happen every week appear first, one time stuff after that. If you have anything you’d like people to know about, comment here or message me and I’ll add it in. If you’d like further info about any of the events, look it up! I usually don’t have any extra to add.
Large Scale, Ongoing, and Multi-Day Events

Local Running, Walking, and Biking Info: https://troubleafoot.blogspot.com/
Guided Paddling Outings all around the area: https://www.facebook.com/hsmithoutdoors
Tallahassee Film Society Showings: https://www.tallahasseefilms.com/tickets/
Book Clubs for all tastes: https://www.facebook.com/midtownreadeevents
Live Theater:

• Making Light Productions: https://www.makinglightproductions.org/
  
• Theatre Tallahassee: https://theatretallahassee.org/
  
• Mickee Faust Club: https://www.mickeefaust.com/
  
• Monticello Opera House: https://www.monticellooperahouse.org/
  
• FSU School of Theatre: https://theatre.fsu.edu/productions/
  
• Young Actors Theatre: https://www.youngactorstheatre.com/
  
• Quincy Music Theatre: https://quincymusictheatre.com/
  
• Tallahassee Hispanic Theater: https://tallahasseehispanictheater.wordpress.com/
  

OutdooFarmer’s Markets:

• Lake Ella Grower's Market: Wednesday and Saturday, 11am-2pm. You can always find organic vendors, and foragers: The Holistic Cannabis Community, Artzi Farms, Hickory Nut Gifts, and others. Including Pita Queen! Farmer's Market Nutrition Program Coupons gladly accepted!
  
• Tallahassee Downtown Market: Saturdays, 10am-2pm, Park Ave Parks. Vendors display their arts and fine crafts, jewelry, handmade soap, pottery, Fresh from Florida produce, hand-raised beef and pork, fresh baked bread, jams and jellies, and honey. Live music from different local musicians every Saturday.
  
• Frenchtown Heritage Market: 524 N MLK Jr Blvd. Third Saturday of the month 10am to 2pm. Come grow community and support your local farmers and makers, while you get your groceries for the week! Don’t forget! We match SNAP/EBT, so you DOUBLE your money to go towards locally grown fresh fruits and vegetables! If the guy with the pineapple is there, get it. This is currently only happening on the third Saturday of the month for the next few months while road work is completed.
  
• Tallahassee Farmers Market: 2904 Kerry Forest Pkwy, Saturdays, 8am to Noon. Come see us at Tallahassee's longest-running farmers market! We are a year-round market, featuring local farms and vendors that provide the best seasonal produce, meats, baked goods, and more. We welcome you and your whole family (leashed pets included) to come out and meet your local farmers! Ample parking is available between our lot and the shopping center lot next door (by Red Elephant). Come early for the best selection.
  

THURSDAY, 5/16

• The Hub at Feather Oaks: Bingo. 6pm
  
• Dreamland BBQ: Weekly Open Blues Jam. If you'd like to sing, please bring your own mic. 6pm
  
• Honest Living Vape: Chess-Master Thursdays . Beginners and experts, join us every Thursday from 6-9 for Chess-Master Thursdays. All ages. Bring your board or play ours! Tournaments coming soon! 6pm
  
• Lake Tribe: Trivia. 7pm
  
• Takko Market Square: Bingo Night. 7pm
  
• The Getaway Grille and Bar: Karaoke with Jared Walker. 7pm
  
• Amicus Brewing: Trivia. 7pm
  
• Smitty's Taphouse: Trivia Lab Thursdays. Teams of 6 or fewer players can compete for $30 / $20 / $10 Prizes + The Golden MacGuffin prize table! New format! Interactive smartphone answering for your comfort and safety! 6 Fun Rounds - 42 Total Questions. 7:30pm
  
• Studio D: Bachata Fever. We always have a bachata workshop at 8 pm before Bachata Fever. We dance afterwards to the sounds of DJ Bacharod. The class is at 8 pm and Bachata Fever will start at 930 pm. Many times people are learning in class and may feel uncomfortable social dancing while they are still learning moves. We have a welcoming environment so stay and have fun and dance with everyone. That is how we learn. 8pm/Class $5/Bachata Fever $5.
  
• The Sound Bar: Comedy Night. 8pm
  
• Finnegans Wake: Open Mic. 8:30pm
  
• Brass Tap in Midtown: Karaoke with DJ Rah. 9pm
  
• 926: Karaoke. 9pm
  
• Bird’s: Karaoke with Nathan. 9pm
  

• Fire Bettys: Slasher Bash. This week we'll be showing: "Zombeavers". Prepare for an evening of horrific hilarity with comedy narration and devilish drinking games!🍻 Hosted by local comedians. 8pm/21+
  
• Blue Tavern: Seep's Gumbo Nation ft. Shanice Richards. 8pm
  

FRIDAY, 5/17

• Blue Tavern: Happy Hour with Steve Malono. 5pm
  
• Lake Tribe Brewing: Flannel Fridays with Live Music. 6pm
  
• Hobbit West: Friday Night Dart Tournament. Anyone can Enter! Sign ups at 7:30, Darts fly at 8:00/$10 entry fee
  
• Ouzts Too: Karaoke with DJ Nathan. Best karaoke DJ in town. 8pm
  
• Just One More: Karaoke with DJ Rah. 9pm-11pm/21+
  
• 926: The Hot Friday Night Party and Drag Show. 9pm/$5/18+
  

• The Hub at Feather Oaks: Rachel Hillman. 5:30pm
  
• Lake Tribe: Ben Wentworth. 5:30pm
  
• Amicus Brewing: The Tanglers. 6pm
  
• The Getaway Grille and Bar: One Year Anniversary Celebration Featuring Queen of Hearts Band. 6pm
  
• Southwood Golf Club: The Rhythm Remedy. 6:30pm
  
• Goodwood: The Big Bash Havana Nights presented by Brent Hartsfield. The Big Bash is Big Brothers Big Sisters of the Big Bend's signature fundraising gala of the year and directly supports the agency's youth mentoring programs. Guests will enjoy Cuban Cuisine, champagne mojitos, cigars, flights, classic cars, photo opportunities, silent auction vacation packages, LIVE music and dancing, and an exciting LIVE salsa dance performance from 12 community volunteers! The event is a tremendous networking opportunity for Tallahassee's top business professionals, local community leaders and philanthropists to come together to enjoy an evening to celebrate the achievements of Big Brothers Big Sisters. 7pm
  
• Blue Tavern: Wil Fulkerson Jazz Night. 8pm
  
• House of Music: Belly Dancing: Journey From The Nile To The Tigris. Habibi, join us on a groovy carpet ride across ancient deserts: Disco Iskandar embarks on a voyage of belly dance, folklore, cinema, and history in a theatrical dance production, JOURNEY FROM THE NILE TO THE TIGRIS. Highlighting the prominence of belly dance in films of the Middle East from the 1940s through the 1970s, we present a live showcase exhibiting dances from Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, and beyond. It goes so much deeper than you think. Hookahs! Swords! Rhinestones, literally everywhere! This cross section of entertainment and education is the culmination of years of obsessive learning, two national tours, and travels to Egypt & Lebanon. JOURNEY FROM THE NILE TO THE TIGRIS is a trip unlike any other-- where the Middle East meets Vegas. This show’s cast is Gabi Corazon, Gia Bee, Liz Azi, Olya Clark, Vania Ojeda, director Veronica Lynn, and special guest star Omaris! 8pm/$15/21+
  
• The Sound Bar: The Old Schoolers. 8pm
  
• Vino Beano: Your Scumbag Neighbors. 8pm
  
• The Bark: Medians, No Yeah, Sleep John B, and Cloud Storage. 8pm
  

SATURDAY, 5/18

• Brinkley Glen Park: Invasive Plant Removal. Join Master Gardener Volunteers at this weekly invasive plant removal event. This is a great way to learn to ID our invasive plant species and how to remove them. We recommend wearing long pants and sleeves, closed-toed shoes, gloves, a hat and mosquito spray. Bring gardening tools such as hand clippers, loppers, trowels, etc. if you have them. We are removing coral ardisia bushes and berries, nandina, tung trees, Tradescantia flumenensis, cat's claw vine, winged yam, Japanese climbing fern, skunkvine and more. Directions: The best way to get there is to take Meridian Rd to Waverly Rd, go to the next intersection and turn left onto Abbotsford Way, then turn left at the next road called Woodside Dr. At the stop sign turn left onto Lothian. Lothian ends in a cul-de-sac and there is a sign that says Brinkley Glen Park. 8:30am-11:30am
  
• Gamescape: Saturday Gaming. Gamescape has relocated from Railroad Square to the Huntington Oaks Plaza (Suite 302, next to the Library) at N Monroe St and Fred George Rd. Open gaming tables are available. Noon-6pm
  
• Duke’s and Dottie’s: Line Dancing Plus Lessons. 7pm/21+
  
• Bird’s Oyster Shack: Laughterday Night Fever. * Join us every Saturday at Bird's Aphrodisiac Oyster Shack for a free comedy show!* 8:30pm
  
• 926: Latin Night. Dance to the irresistible beats of Zeus and prepare to be dazzled by a spectacular drag show at midnight. It's more than a party, it's an experience. 9:30pm/$10 21+, $15 under 21
  

• Crawfordville: Big Bend Biodiversity Tour. See why our area is so ecologically incredible! Get up close and personal with creatures and plants galore. Join expert guide and outdoor educator, Ryan Means for this limited opportunity to tour the Apalachicola Lowlands Preserve. The day-long trip stops at points along the way to the privately-owned preserve nestled deep in the Apalachicola National Forest near Sumatra, FL. Explore the longleaf pine ecosystem, pitcher plant bogs, ephemeral wetlands, and blackwater streams - home to some threatened and endangered species. Learn what makes the Florida Panhandle one of the five richest biodiversity hotspots in North America. Perfect tour for photographers, outdoor enthusiasts and ecologists. $75 tour fee includes round-trip transportation (from 46 Kinsey Rd, Crawfordville, FL) , complimentary beverages, and supports efforts to preserve the incredible biodiversity of the Southeastern Coastal Plain. Spaces limited. Register here: https://coastalplains.networkforgood.com/events/71083-big-bend-biodiversity-tour for full details. 8am
  
• Dreamland BBQ: Rock Type One to None. Let's rock to find a cure for Type 1 Diabetes! The Unicorn Wranglers are back on Saturday, May 18th at Dreamland BBQ in Tallahassee, Florida for the 2024 "Rock One to None" show. This show is benefiting the Juvenile Diabetes Research Fund (JDRF) and will feature musical guests Midnight Caravan, Fallen Timber, and the Unicorn Wranglers. The show starts at 4 pm and runs until 7 pm at Dreamland BBQ in Music Alley, and is open to all ages. While the show is free, we encourage all rockers attending to donate to the cause. You can contribute at the show by visiting our donation station or by heading over to our online Unicorn Wranglers team page. Together, as one big mosh pit, we can help cure Type 1 Diabetes. 3pm
  
• The Hub at Feather Oaks: Ethan Kyllonen. 4pm
  
• Amicus Brewing: Beza Alford and Rev. Dr. Sheldon Steen. 5pm
  
• Lake Tribe: Flamingo Party. 6pm
  
• The Getaway Grille and Bar: Billy Rigsby Band. 6pm
  
• Vino Beano: Brett & "Dangerous" Dave. 6pm
  
• Salty Dawg: Hot Mess. 6:30pm
  
• La Tiendita: Rhys Bennett & the Gringos as Vontade. Join us for an energetic evening filled with the vibrant sounds of Latin music, Brazilian beats, and jazz rhythms. Our local band, Rhys Bennett & the Gringos, will transform into the versatile ensemble Vontade, treating you to a delightful mix of rancheras, bossa nova, and more! Whether you're a seasoned dancer or a newcomer to the dance floor, you're in for a fantastic time at one of Tallahassee's hidden gems. Immerse yourself in a night of cultural fusion and musical celebration that is sure to create lasting memories! 6:30pm
  
• The Sound Bar: Tillman & Taff. 7pm
  
• Island Wings: Midnight Caravan. 7pm
  
• The Bark: Saturnalia, Brass Wizard, Van Season, and Psycho Tropical. 8pm
  
• Fire Bettys: 80's Video Dance Party. 8pm
  
• Just One More: One Eyed JAK. 9pm
  

SUNDAY, 5/19

• Bicycle House: Sunday Ride. Ride at 10:30 AM from Bicycle House. We will ride the Cascades trail to the St Marks trail and down to Wakulla station and return, about 31 miles. Ride speed is 12 to 14 mph, with periodic regroups. Vernon Bailey is the ride leader. Vernon is a new CCC member who’s been biking for 50 years enjoys riding with small groups and weekend touring. 10am
  
• E Peck Greene Park (Behind the LeRoy Collins Library): Food Not Bombs Free Mealshare. We offer free vegetarian/vegan food, water, coffee, personal care & hygiene products, bus passes, and clothing when we have some available to those in need. Contact foodnotbombstally@gmail.com to find out about getting involved. Noon-2pm
  
• LeRoy Collins Library: Tallahassee Go Club Meetings. Come play the captivating ancient game of Go, also known as Baduk, with some friendly games and discussions. Beginners welcome. Visit https://www.tallahasseegoclub.com for more information. 1pm
  
• Gamescape: Pokémon League. Come learn, play, and trade with the Pokémon Trading Card Game and the Pokémon video games! We LOVE seeing new players, so come learn how to play! We play both the Trading Card Game and the Video Game casually and competitively. The store offers lots of different seating arrangements to meet our group's needs, as well as food, drinks, and Pokémon products for purchase. We are also hold regular, officially sanctioned tournaments for Pokémon Trading Card Game and Video Game Competitions! 2-4pm
  
• The Plant: Open Jam. All instruments, all players welcome. 4pm-9pm
  
• Pedro’s: Mariachi Clasico. 6pm
  
• Fermentation Lounge: Open Mic Night Hosted by Conor Churchill. 7pm
  

• Ology Powermill: Marauders Market. Noon
  
• The Hub at Feather Oaks: The Barber Bros. 1pm-4pm
  
• Goodwood: Ice Cream Social. Get ready for a spectacular day of family fun at Goodwood Museum & Gardens! Treat your taste buds to a family fun day of FREE ice cream, FREE crafts for the kids, FREE activities, and more, all on the beautiful Goodwood grounds. Family-friendly musical entertainment will be provided by The Safari Man, who will have everyone tapping their feet and dancing along to his whimsical tunes. 1pm
  
• Common Ground Books: Contemporary Queer Poetry Book Club: Time is a Mother. This month, we’ll be reading “Time is a Mother” by Ocean Vuong. “In this deeply intimate second poetry collection, Ocean Vuong searches for life among the aftershocks of his mother's death, embodying the paradox of sitting within grief while being determined to survive beyond it. Vivid, brave and propulsive, Vuong's poems contend with personal loss, the meaning of family, and the value of joy in a perennially fractured American spirit. The author of the critically acclaimed poetry collection Night Sky with Exit Wounds, winner of the 2016 Whiting Award, the 2017 T. S. Eliot Prize and a 2019 MacArthur fellow, Vuong writes directly to our humanity without losing sight of the current moment. Bold and prescient, and a testament to tenderness in the face of violence, Time is a Mother is a return and a forging-forth all at once.” 6pm
  

MONDAY, 5/20

• Just One More: Bingo. 5pm-6:30pm
  
• The Getaway Grille and Bar: Margarita Monday, Open-Mic Night hosted by The Saltwater Cowboy. 5:30pm-8pm
  
• American Legion Hall: Cha Cha - Weekly Lessons. 6:15pm/$5
  
• Hangar 38: Bingo. 6:45pm
  
• Vino Beano: Tipsy Trivia. 7pm
  

TUESDAY, 5/21

• Blue Tavern: Happy Hour. 5pm
  
• The Getaway Grille: Tuesday Night Bikes and Trikes. 6pm
  
• Crafty Crab: BOOMIN' Karaoke. 7pm
  
• Gamescape: Hobby Night. Slay the grey together! Join your fellow gamers and turn your pile of grey miniatures into a battle ready army. Need some painting tips? Feel free to ask at hobby night. You can bring any miniature for any game to paint. 7pm
  
• Ology Midtown: Jazz Jam Sessions. 7pm
  
• Island Wings: Trivia. 7pm
  
• Brass Tap in Midtown: Trivia. 1st Tuesday of the month is General Knowledge with rotating themes the rest of the month. 7pm
  
• House of Music: Tuesday Trivia & Karaoke. 7pm
  
• American Legion Hall: Tallahassee Swing Band Tuesday Night Dance. 7:30pm
  
• Fire Bettys: Comedy Night. 8pm
  
• Poor Pauls: Trivia. 8pm/21+
  
• Blue Tavern: Bluesday Tuesday with Bill Ricci. Every Tuesday is Blues Day @ the Blue Tavern and Blues Meets Girl is a Tallahassee favorite. This perfect, intimate venue provides just what you need for both a mid-week break and authentic blues music experience. 8pm/$5
  
• 4th Quarter: Professor Jim's Tuesday Night Trivia. Popular for a reason! 8pm
  
• Argonaut Coffee: Trivia Tuesday. 8pm
  
• The Sound Bar: Karaoke. 8pm
  
• Fire Betty’s: Open Mic Comedy Night. 8pm/21+
  
• 926: Tacos and Trivia. 9pm
  

• Tallahassee Junior Museum: Basic Blacksmith Skills Program. Light your curiosity at our upcoming Basic Blacksmith Skills Program! Join our resident blacksmith, Michael Murphy, as he shares his history of being a Smitty. Participants will be able to keep the fire going, sling a hammer, and throw knives during this two hour lecture program. This is an outdoor event. Must preregister online at tallahasseemuseum.org/events. This program is free for members and regular admission price for non-members. 10am

WEDNESDAY, 5/22

• Sugar and Spice Tally: Game Night. Join us every Wednesday Night for community game night. Bring your own or use ours! Let me know if you need to reserve space for a large group. Free to attend! 5pm
  
• Goodwood: Wonderful Wednesday. 6pm/$5
  
• Level 8 Rooftop Lounge: Trivia. 6pm
  
• La Florida Coffee & Wine: Trivia Night. 6pm
  
• The Great Games Library: Open Game Night. 6pm/free
  
• American Legion Hall: Sue Boyd Country Western and More Dance Class. Session 2 - Beginner 6:30 to 7:45 pm What: East Coast Swing and Waltz. Cost: $8.00 per person. Wear comfortable shoes you can turn in. 7:45 to 8:15 - Practice dance with paid admission. 8:15 to 9:30: Intermediate - 2 Step and WCS. $8.00 per person or $13.00 for both classes. Vaccines are required. Face masks are optional. Changing partners is optional. 6:30pm
  
• Perry Lynn’s Smokehouse in Quincy: Wed Night Open Mic w/ Steven Ritter and Friends. 6:30pm
  
• Hangar 38: Trivia. 6:45pm
  
• Proof: Trivia. 7pm
  
• Vino Beano: Wine Bingo. 7pm
  
• Fermentation Lounge: Trivia. 7pm
  
• Blue Tavern: Wednesday Open Mic with Doc Russell. The open mic night that has run continuously for almost 20 years, once housed at the Warehouse, lives on at the Blue Tavern. Doc Russell continues as the host with the most. Sign up starts at 7:45pm/free to attend
  
• House of Music: Bar Bingo! Free to Play & Late Night Karaoke. 7pm
  
• Fire Betty’s: Karaoke! 8pm/21+/free
  
• Dukes and Dotties: College Night and Line Dancing Lessons. 8pm
  
• Finnegans Wake: Trivia. 8pm
  
• The Sound Bar: Open Mic Night. 8pm
  
• The Bark: Karaoke with DJ Nathan. Best karaoke DJ in town. 9pm
  
• Peppers: Karaoke. 9pm
  
• 926: Dragged Out Wednesday. 10pm
  

"We're a good family. Never have done anything wrong." - Eric Trump on Fox News, overlooking a few things.

Cohen 'Round In Circles

Michael Cohen took the stand in perhaps the most hotly-anticipated moment of disgraced former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial.

• Cohen once famously vowed he’d “take a bullet” for Trump, back in their happier days, when Cohen served as Trump’s attorney and fixer. Instead, Cohen spent the day firing shots, metaphorically speaking, in the form of testimony that could land Trump in prison. Cohen described work for Trump that included intimidating reporters and threatening to sue over any coverage that displeased his boss. The fixer said he used to make sure Trump knew all about it, because Trump’s praise made him feel like he was “on top of the world.” Aww!
  
• Those unsavory duties led Cohen to work directly with National Enquirer publisher David Pecker to kill negative stories about Trump before the 2016 election. Cohen told the court that he was absolutely working on behalf of the campaign, using a campaign email account and receiving regular campaign talking points. He described setting up a shell company to pay adult film star Stormy Daniels for her story about her alleged affair with Trump, and said the order came directly from Trump himself. Cohen said Trump promised to reimburse him for the $130,000 payment to Stormy, after the lapdog took out a home equity line of credit on his apartment to secure the money.
  
• Prosecutors hope Cohen will convince the jury that Trump knew about the payment scheme. They asked Cohen directly whether or not he would have paid Daniels without Trump’s authorization, and Cohen said no. “Everything required Mr. Trump’s sign-off,” he affirmed. On top of that, he wanted his money back!
  

It’s important to keep in mind that Cohen is a convicted liar and an all-around shady guy. Next up, Trump’s defense attorneys will set out to destroy his credibility on cross-examination. But it’s up to the jury to decide if this boy cried wolf too many times.

Look No Further Than Crooked Media

You know we love to support the non-binary community, and you know we also love wordplay. So of course we have a new tee in the Crooked Store that does both: They/Them’s the rules. It’s a tee based off a segment on Lovett Or Leave It, and it’s been a highly-requested merch item. Now it’s finally here! Head to https://crooked.com/store to pick up a shirt.

Under The Radar

Louisiana could become the first state in the country to categorize abortion pills as controlled dangerous substances, meaning fines and jail time for any non-healthcare professional caught in possession of the drugs without a prescription. A pregnant woman who obtained the pills for herself would be exempt from prosecution — but a friend helping her get the pills could be charged with a crime and face up to five years in prison. Oh cool! New dystopian horror just dropped!
State legislators inserted this draconian clause as a last-minute amendment into a Senate bill that aims to criminalize “coerced” abortion in instances where someone gives a pregnant person mifepristone or misoprostol without their consent. (Apparently, that nearly really happened to the pregnant sister of the sponsor of this bill.)
The amendment adds abortion pills to a list of criminalized, addictive drugs like opioids and depressants, even though more than 200 Louisiana doctors signed a letter pointing out that this makes no scientific sense. The medical experts reminded Republican senators that misoprostol is also used for other purposes outside of abortions, including during labor and delivery, treatment after a miscarriage, and to help stop postpartum hemorrhage. Mifepristone, the most common abortion pill, is safer than Viagra and penicillin. Oh yeah, and one more thing: Abortion pills are not addictive, you freaks! Louisiana has already banned both medication and surgical abortions except for life-saving circumstances. We get it, Louisiana! You hate women!

What Else?

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS News the U.S. “will not support” an Israeli invasion of the city of Rafah in southern Gaza without a “credible” plan to support civilians, and that U.S. officials are still waiting to see Israel’s plan for what will happen when this war is over. Meanwhile, Israeli forces renewed fighting in northern Gaza, claiming Hamas has regrouped there.
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)’s corruption trial kicked off on Monday. Prosecutors allege Menendez accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes to help a few Jersey businessmen land lucrative foreign contracts and to help stop a federal investigation. In exchange, Menendez allegedly received cash, gold bars and a luxury Mercedes-Benz convertible. Menendez has pleaded not guilty. But, y’know, perhaps he’s just guilty of bringing “being paid in gold bars” back into fashion.
New Polling data from the New York Times shows Trump leading Biden in five swing states, including by some pretty hair-raising numbers. Trump leads among registered voters in Nevada by 12 points, and in Georgia by 10 points. How many times do we have to say it: Yikes! Among likely voters, Trump’s lead is smaller. But, still, not great!
Trump said some particularly weird shit during a rally in New Jersey over the weekend, praising “the late, great Hannibal Lecter” (when neither the character, nor the actor who played him, is dead) as a “wonderful man” (he literally ate people). We never know what he’s talking about, but what the actual fuck was that?
Trump officially scratched Nikki Haley off his VP list on Saturday with an uncharacteristically polite note on Truth Social, writing: “I wish her well!”
Maryland, West Virginia, and Nebraska will hold primaries on Tuesday. In the West Virginia governor’s race, local Republicans are competing with each other to see who can be the most transphobic candidate. In Maryland, the traditionally-sleepy Democratic Senate primary is shaping up to be more competitive and contentious than usual, as rich guy Rep. David Trone (D-MD) faces off against county executive Angela Alsobrooks.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court began hearing oral arguments in a major case that will determine the future of absentee ballot drop boxes in the state. The court’s liberal majority could reverse a restrictive 2022 ruling that limited access to drop boxes, which were a target of criticism from Republicans after the 2020 election.
Graduating students at Duke audibly booed Jerry Seinfeld during his commencement speech introduction, seemingly for the comedian’s vocal support of Israel. Some students walked out, in just one of several anti-war protests in commencement ceremonies over the weekend.
Former Trump aide Johnny McEntee bragged in a TikTok video about giving fake money to unhoused people so that when they try to use it, they could get arrested. No hell hot enough for these monsters!

What A Sponsor

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Light At The End Of The Email

Flavor Flav is finalizing a deal with USA Water Polo to become the official hype man for the women’s team ahead of the Paris Olympics as they compete for an unprecedented fourth consecutive gold medal. Team captain Maggie Stefan made a plea for support on social media that reached Flav’s radar, and the 65-year-old rapper offered to lend his influence and give the program a bigger spotlight. Yeahhh boyyyy!
Two loggerhead sea turtles were met with cheers as they were released from a Florida marine life rehabilitation center into the Atlantic Ocean. Cayman and Finely were both injured in separate incidents involving fishing lines but the turtles recovered well and are back swimming near West Palm Beach.
EU countries approved a law Monday that will eliminate carbon dioxide emissions from trucks, promising that most new heavy-duty vehicles sold in the European Union from 2040 will be emissions-free. Manufacturers will have to convert from diesel to electric or hydrogen-fueled trucks. European auto groups called the policy the most ambitious worldwide towards cutting emissions. We’re sure conservatives will respond normally to this!
Federal regulators approved a plan to upgrade and expand America’s electric grids, a move that could make it easier to add more wind and solar energy to the system and upgrade the country’s declining electricity network. The new federal rule requires grid operators to plan 20 years into the future and think through future energy needs.

Enjoy

Audrey Porne on Twitter: "you can just say things, it doesn't even need to make sense. my barista told me she's upping her sertraline dose and I said "that's so art deco" and she agreed."

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https://www.reuters.com/legal/lidar-maker-hesai-sues-us-government-denies-alleged-link-chinas-military-2024-05-14/

1. Raise the minimum wage to the living wage of $30 per hour.
   
2. Enact Universal Single-payer Healthcare.
   
3. Use taxes to help those with student debt and pay for future education.
   
4. Lower the taxes of everyone whose net worth is less than $200,000 (74% of the population) and progressively raise the taxes on everyone else.
   
5. Close all tax loopholes, esp for the top 1% of the wealthy.
   
6. End the tax-exempt status for religious organizations.
   
7. Audit the military-industrial complex, esp. the Pentagon.
   
8. Cut the budget (over $1 trillion)of the military-industrial complex by at least half.
   
9. Build at least 200 new nuclear power plants in the next 5 years.
   
10. Increase funding for Research & Development of Fusion energy from $3 billion to $300 billion.
    
11. Reform the electoral system:
    

a) Pass the Freedom to Vote Act.
b) Enact Final-Five Voting at every level: City, State, and Federal.
(Final-Five Voting is an innovative electoral system that combines Open Primaries with Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) for the General Election. This system allows the top five vote-getters in the open primary, irrespective of their party affiliation, to advance to the general election. The ultimate goal is to elect a candidate who has the broadest support across the entire electorate, rather than just a simple plurality.
c) Overturn Citizens United and get private money out of politics, esp big money, dark money, and foreign money.
(Citizens United refers to a US Supreme Court case, Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission , which was decided in 2010. The case addressed the application of campaign finance laws to corporations and unions. Specifically, the Court held that limits on corporate and union spending in political campaigns violated the First Amendment's protection of free speech. The ruling resulted in loosening of restrictions on independent political spending by corporations and unions.)
d) Get rid of the delegates, the superdelegates used in the Democratic Primary election.
(Delegates and superdelegates are individuals who participate in the presidential nomination process of political parties, not the general election.
e) Fix the Electoral College by supporting the National Popular Vote. https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/
(The Electoral College is a group of representatives from each state who formally elect the President and Vice President of the United States.)
f) Use the latest technology, like blockchain, to ensure the integrity of the vote count.
g) Establish same-day voter registration.

1. Outlaw all PACs, including AIPAC (American Israeli Political Action Committee).

(AIPAC, or the American Israel Public Affairs Committee , is a lobbying group in the United States that advocates for pro-Israel policies to the legislative and executive branches of government.)

1. Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists & trading individual stocks.
   
2. Devote at least $50 billion every year to independent political journalists.
   
3. Devote at least $50 billion every year to worker-owned businesses.
   
4. Allow victims of the Covid vaccines to sue the makers of those vaccines.
   
5. Pardon all whistleblowers who expose governmental or corporate wrongdoing, including Edward Snowden, Julian Assange, and Chelsea Manning. Moreover, encourage more whistleblowers to come forward and reward and honor them.
   
6. End the $3.5 billion per year aid to Israel until a one-state solution can be worked out with the People of Palestine.
   
7. End the stealing of Syria's oil, and apologize and make amends to them.
   
8. Apologize and make amends to the People of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Palestine for invading, bombing, and occupying their countries.
   
9. Legalize all entheogens, like cannabis and psilocybin mushrooms.
   

(This is not a final list. It is a work in progress.)

Could someone explain to me how it is legal for a car manufacturer to sue someone for "tarnishing the brand" of the vehicle maker by doing a custom paint job or wrap post purchase? (ferrari vs Deadmau5)
I do not see any information about it being in a contract, I do see that ferrari gets quite litigous about modifications made post sale.
https://preview.redd.it/cr5v1i5s6azc1.jpg?width=270&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8779f003f9bf135178a409aeb8818c33d89590c

https://twitter.com/amaryllisfox/status/1787914442740834745?t=mRHuDlU8O8IqiYDieK0nZw&s=19
BP and CP has constantly talked about Meta censoring and banning material. The latest election interference is appalling and wrong. Meta admitted that they accidentally censored RFK'S "Who is Bobby Kennedy" narrated by Woody Harelson. The makers of the video are going to sue. YouTube is doing it's own burying campaign.
Do you think the media is covering for Genocide Joe?

Analysis:

• EURUSD: looks like trader are buying puts on EUR and selling calls in order to buy USD. Hence is lower today. Strong support still at 1.07. So expect the range of 1.07-1.08 to continue until we get next cue from the data. For now low volumes.
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level with the intervention. 152 is the key level. Above this, we see Bulls inc control on USDJPY. More talk of intervention but lets see if we can get below 152. Right now positioning points higher.
• Market today looks similar to yesterday.
• Skew is still pretty much where it was.
• QQQ is pinned under 440, will try to get above it again today.
• Vix still low and pointing lower so not expecting big volatility. Any dip will likely get bought as traders are short volatility.
• Mostly Chop.
• The main reason or chop is because traders are selling put options and there’s not much Out the money call gamma and delta for this opec. As such, market makers are just playing around at the key walls such as 440 on QQQ and 5200 on SPX.

DATA LEDE

• GER Industrial Production (Mar)
• Came -0.4% MOM, more or less in line with the -0.6% expected. Back to negative readings after 2 consecutive positive readings.
• US MBA Mortgage Apps
• US Wholesale Inventories (Mar)
• Fed Jefferson Speech
• Fed Collins Speech
• US 10Y Treasury auction
• US Fed Cook Speech

MARKETS:

• SPX Down slightly, trading at 5178. Yesterday got stopped under 5200. Today it can try to test again.
• Nasdaq: Trading at 18050. Down slightly. Support will be at 18k level.
• Dow Jones: Trading at 38,866. Will be trying to test 39k this week.
• HKG50 - Hong Kong MARKET lower by 1.5%.
• GEr40 - above 18,500. Now trading just a few points below the highs. Is up 0.5% today.
• Oil: Down by 1%, dips below 77. Signficnalty below the trend line now.
• Gold: Flat at 2,316. Choppy above 2300 which is the support
• VIX - VIX lwoer to 13.3

FX:

• AUD rejected from trend line - lower today tracking HKG lower and on the dovishness of RBA yesterday
• DXY slightly up, paring some of the losses from the jobs numbers now
• GBPUSD lower today as a result, trading just below 1.25 now
• EURUSD trading at 1.0745. Rejected off 1.08 2 days ago
• AUDUSD rejected off trend line, trading at 0.6564
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level.

EARNINGS
ANET

• EPS of 1.99 beat estimates by 14%
• Revenue of 1.571B beat estimates by 1.4%. That was an increase 16% YOY
• Operating margin was 47.4% vs 41.2% last year
• Gross margin was 63.7% up from 59% last year
• Net income was 637M, up from 436M last year
• SO V STRONG OEPRATIONAL METRICS
• Introduced CloudVision Universal Network Observability
• Enhanced Focus on AI with AI Etherlink platforms for high performance networking
• Commentary:
• Off to strong start and pleased with their performance.
• Last quarter they didn’t have much visibility beyond 3-6 months. Q1 is ahead of thier expectations and they think this will continue
• All 3 sectors doing well
• Not seeing any macro problems for themselves, so it should just get better
• NVDA not a direct competitor yet on Ethernet side, and there’s just a 1% overlap with NVDA right now.
• They dont see customers waiting on Blackwell and they aren’t pausing their network so they believe they will continue to dominate
• Customers aren’t sparing money on networking.
• Q2 GUIDANCE:
• Revenue of 1.62-1.65, beat estimates by 1%
• Gross margin of 64%
• Operating margin of 44%

UBER - Shares down 7.7% on Q2 Gross bookings outlook and bookings disappointment for this quarter too.

• Looks like a big contrast compared to this and Lyft. Lyft are raising guidance and Uber are not. Lyft competition is biting on uber a bit here.
• • Gross bookings $37.65B, +20% y/y, EST $37.97B. Miss 0.9%
• • Mobility bookings $18.67B, +25% y/y, EST $19.15B. Miss 2.6%
• • Delivery bookings $17.70B, +18% y/y, EST $17.54B. Slight Beat.
• • Freight bookings $1.28B, -8.5% y/y, EST $1.28B. in Line.
• • Revenue $10.13B, +15% y/y, EST $10.11B. beat
• • ADJ EBITDA $1.38B, +82% y/y, EST $1.32B. beat
• • Loss per share $0.32 vs. loss/shr $8.00 y/y
• • Trips 2.57B, +21% y/y, EST 2.60B. miss.
• • Net loss $654M vs. loss $157M y/y
• • Monthly active platform consumers 149M, +15% y/y, EST 149.77M. Miss
• • Total stock-based compensation $484M, +3% y/y, EST $484.3M
• Missed in terms of bookings, missed in terms of Users and in terms of number of trips.
• ❖ GUIDANCE: Q2
• • Sees gross bookings $38.75B to $40.25B, EST $40.04B. MISS
• • Sees ADJ EBITDA $1.45B to $1.53B, EST $1.47B.
• Gross bookings guidance miss.

SHOP - stock is down 17%, despite beats almost across the board this quarter, due to the fact they are forecasting margins to decline sequentially, and also revenue forecast missing consensus.

• Revenue $1.86B, +23% y/y, EST $1.84B. Slight beat.
• • Monthly recurring revenue $151M, +30% y/y, EST $149M. Slight beat.
• • Merchant Solutions revenue $1.4B, +24% y/y, EST $1.34B. beat.
• • Subscription revenue $511M, +34% y/y, EST $498.1M. Slight beat.
• • Gross merchandise volume $60.86B, +23% y/y, EST $59.46B. Beat
• • ADJ EPS $0.20 vs. $1.00 y/y, EST $0.17. Beat.
• • Gross payment volume $36.24B, +32% y/y, EST $35.06B. Beat
• • ADJ gross profit $962M, EST $943.6M. beat
• • ADJ gross margin 52%, EST 51.3%. Beat
• • R&D expenses $335M, -27% y/y
• Volume:
• Gross mErchandise Volume was 60.86B vs 59B expected. BEAT
• Gross Payments Volume was 36B, beating estimates of 35B. BEAT
• So this quarter was a beat pretty much across the board.
• Q2 guidance:
• Revenue high teen % growth vs 20% growth expected.
• GROSS MARGINS EXPECTED TO DECREASE 50 BPS vs Q1 2024. So they are expecting sequential decline in Margins.
• Comments:
• Strongest version in our history with Q1 performance
• Strong start this year and operational discipline

RIVN

• EPS of -1.48 vs estimates of -1.15. SO bigger loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue was 1.2B, beat by 2.5%, and up 2.5% YOY
• Q1 operating loss was 1.48B, bigger loss by 14%
• SO producing wider than expected losses on stronger than expected revenue
• Produciton:
• Vehicles produced 13,980
• Vehicles delivered 13,588
• 2024 R1S was the best selling EV in the US above $70k
• Gross profit per vehicle delivered was -38,784. Sot hey are making big losses per vehicle delivered, due to significant impact from supplier and other costs.
• Net loss worsened
• Operational expenses increased to 957M from 898M
• Stock based compensation is higher too which is no good considering the company is making losses.
• Unveiled new midsize platform underpinning R2, R3 and R3X models
• Announced plans to begin R2 production in Illinios in H1
• Received $827M in subsides from Illinois for Plant expansion
• Outlook:
• Reaffirmed FY guidance for Produciton: 57,000 vehicles
• Anticipates a modest profit in Q4 2024.
• Said Q1 results exceeded outlook and set a strong foundation for rest of the year
• Continues to focus on ramping up Produciton and improving efficiencies.
• Capital efficiency is big priority
• Said on track to improve financial metrics significantly driven by cost reductions and enhanced manufacturing processes.
• Says the state incentives from Illinois is v good for them

TWLO - missed on revenue guidance. Overall not bad earnings though I think

• EPS of 0.8, beat estimates by 35%
• Revenue of 1.05B was a beat by 1%. Is up 4% YOY
• Organic revenue growth of 7% YOY
• GAAP loss from operations improved by 84% YOY.
• Dollar based retention rate was 102%
• Operating cash flow of 190M significant improvement from last year at 97M
• FCF Significant improvement to 177M from 114M
• Non gasp income was 160M, up from 103M last year.
• Share buyback of 3B in total, 1.5B is already done
• Guidance for Q2:
• Eps of 0.64-0.68 (beat estimates by 1.5%)
• Revenue of 1.055B, missed estimates by 2.4%
• So EPS was better, but Revenue missed.
• Full Year guidance:
• Raised Operations guidance Net income to 585-635M
• Reaffirmed Full year revenue growth of 5-10%
• So maintained full year guidance.
• Commentary:
• Solid Q1 results. Building on their recent momentum
• Progress has been made on profitability and free cash flow

LYFT

• EPS of -0.08 vs estimates of -0.16. So much narrower loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue of 1.3B, was up 28% YOY, beat by 12%
• Q1 net loss of 31.5M, vs loss previously of 187.6M
• OUTLOOK For next quarter:
• Gross bookings to be 4B-4.1B, which beats estimates by 1.2%. Thats a guidance for a sequential improvement of 10%, so strong guidance really
• EBITDA to be 95-100M, beating esimtates by 20%
• EBITDA margin to be 2.4% of gross bookings
• Operational highlights:
• Q1 rides were 188M, up 23% YOY
• Number of active riders was 21M up 12% YPOY
• Gross bookings was 3.7B, up 21% YOY.
• STRONG EARNIGNS

MAG7 NEWS

• TSLA - Proposed to launch robotaxis in China. Still awaiting FSD approval though for full implementation.
• TSLA - Lazr earnings show that Tesla was the largest Lidar customer for LAZR, accounting for 10% of their revenue in Q1 alone.
• TSLA - yesterday moved lower on report that they will shut production t German plant for 4 days.
• AAPL - China iPhone shipments jumped 12% in March, after discounting.
• AAPL event yesterday: Whats the latest?
• Announced new iPad Air with 2 ties, 11 inches and 13 inches for first time
• iPad Air is 50% faster and has M2 chip.
• Cost is 599 for 11 inch and 799 for 13 inch
• Introduces new Apple Pencil Pro, costing 129
• Unveils new iPad Pro featuring M4 chip with fresh design, thinnest AAPL product ever.
• MSFT - OpenAI is developing a search product that will rival GOOGL. This feature of chatGPT will enable users to search the web, display results and include ability to showcase images.
• MSFT - Will unveil 3.3B AI investment in battleground Wisconsin.
• GOOGL down slightly in premarket on this news

COMPANY NEWS

• Chinese stocks all lower on HKG market being lower, particularly so Li, Nio and XPEV.
• Li earnigns are after market today
• SNAP - down after $650M convertible debt offering
• BTC lower by 1% today back to 62,300 sends crypto mining stocks lower.
• Shop tanking on earnings - see review above.
• Uber lower on earnings - see review above
• ZI - tanks 23% on earnings. After missing EPS guidance and revenue guidance for next quarter.
• SHLS down 16% on earnings
• Ea down on earnigns after missing EPS and revenue metrics
• TM - Toyota buyback, up to 3% of their shares for 1 Trillian Yen by 2025 April.
• DV getting killed in premarket, down over 30%, after they cut its full year outlook due to uneven spending patterns among select large advertisers. Cut revenue guidance to 663-675m, a cut by 3.7%
• TTD may be down in sentiment, ahead of their earnings today
• INTC, QCOM - US administration has reportedly revoked export licenses which had allowed Intel and Wcom to supply chips to Huawei. This will impact Huawei ability to source chips for laptops and mobiles.
• CVNA - Hindenburg research raises concerns about potential accounting fraud at Caravan, citing a flood of 15 inbox ads alleging gradual red flats in the company’s financial practices.
• PTON - Private equity firms are apparently interested in Pton for a potential buyout.
• BIGC is exploring sale, amid market challenges
• ENR - Morgan Stnaley upgrades to equal weight from underweight, PT 33
• DDOG - Baird upgrades to outperform from Neutral, Price target 140 from 130
• IFF - JPM upgrades to overweight from Neutral, PT 100 from 75
• ODFL - upgraded by Baird to outperform from Neutral, Price target 205
• SHLS - Roth Downgrades to neutral from Buy
• SNAP & META - Tiktok want to overturn Tiktok ban.
• ELAN up on earnings

OTHER NEWS:

• Swedish central bank has cut interest rates for first time since 2016. Said they expect to cut 2 more times in h2.
• Iran plans to raise oil output by 300k-400k b/d this year. One reason why oil prices lower.
• President going to Wisconsin, one of the battleground states, to announce plans by MSFT to build a $3.3B Ai high tech at a center, creating 2000 permanent jobs
• Tiktok Sues US government over Law forcing sale or ban. They say it violates First amendment rights. Said divesture is simply not possible.
• Kashkari quite hawkish comments yesterday, but he is not a voter until 2026, so his comments can be taken with pinch fo salt
• He said he questions policy restrictiveness given the recent inflation ata. Said that he questions whether disinflation is still underway.
• Said he’s questioning the neutral rate.
• Said Fed may have to hold rates steady all year.
• Russia hits military and energy targets in Ukraine with high precision weapons, and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles
• HSBC forecasts price of 25.38 for Silver in 2024. Says deficits help limit downside but above ground stocks are enough to fill the shortfall. So neutral overall.
• Bank of America say that investors should not sell in may and Go away this year, as they note that presidential election years can see big summer rallies.
• BTC ETFs see 2nd consecutive day of net gains. Every single fund in green with positive inflows.
• US concerns over Israels Gaza policy led to hold up in shipments of weapons.
• Suzuki was expressing strong concerns over impact of weak yen on prices.
• BOJ’s Ueda says they won’t target real wages in guiding monetary policy. Said that rapid 1 sided yen falls are negative for Japans economy and are undesirable
• Said they must be mindful that lower cost push inflation could discourage firms from passing on rising wages to sale prices. This could affect the wage price dynamic that they are targeting.
• Netherlands manufacturing Produciton declines 6% YOY

Analysis:

• EURUSD: looks like trader are buying puts on EUR and selling calls in order to buy USD. Hence is lower today. Strong support still at 1.07. So expect the range of 1.07-1.08 to continue until we get next cue from the data. For now low volumes.
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level with the intervention. 152 is the key level. Above this, we see Bulls inc control on USDJPY. More talk of intervention but lets see if we can get below 152. Right now positioning points higher.
• Market today looks similar to yesterday.
• Skew is still pretty much where it was.
• QQQ is pinned under 440, will try to get above it again today.
• Vix still low and pointing lower so not expecting big volatility. Any dip will likely get bought as traders are short volatility.
• Mostly Chop.
• The main reason or chop is because traders are selling put options and there’s not much Out the money call gamma and delta for this opec. As such, market makers are just playing around at the key walls such as 440 on QQQ and 5200 on SPX.

DATA LEDE

• GER Industrial Production (Mar)
• Came -0.4% MOM, more or less in line with the -0.6% expected. Back to negative readings after 2 consecutive positive readings.
• US MBA Mortgage Apps
• US Wholesale Inventories (Mar)
• Fed Jefferson Speech
• Fed Collins Speech
• US 10Y Treasury auction
• US Fed Cook Speech

MARKETS:

• SPX Down slightly, trading at 5178. Yesterday got stopped under 5200. Today it can try to test again.
• Nasdaq: Trading at 18050. Down slightly. Support will be at 18k level.
• Dow Jones: Trading at 38,866. Will be trying to test 39k this week.
• HKG50 - Hong Kong MARKET lower by 1.5%.
• GEr40 - above 18,500. Now trading just a few points below the highs. Is up 0.5% today.
• Oil: Down by 1%, dips below 77. Signficnalty below the trend line now.
• Gold: Flat at 2,316. Choppy above 2300 which is the support
• VIX - VIX lwoer to 13.3

FX:

• AUD rejected from trend line - lower today tracking HKG lower and on the dovishness of RBA yesterday
• DXY slightly up, paring some of the losses from the jobs numbers now
• GBPUSD lower today as a result, trading just below 1.25 now
• EURUSD trading at 1.0745. Rejected off 1.08 2 days ago
• AUDUSD rejected off trend line, trading at 0.6564
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level.

EARNINGS
ANET

• EPS of 1.99 beat estimates by 14%
• Revenue of 1.571B beat estimates by 1.4%. That was an increase 16% YOY
• Operating margin was 47.4% vs 41.2% last year
• Gross margin was 63.7% up from 59% last year
• Net income was 637M, up from 436M last year
• SO V STRONG OEPRATIONAL METRICS
• Introduced CloudVision Universal Network Observability
• Enhanced Focus on AI with AI Etherlink platforms for high performance networking
• Commentary:
• Off to strong start and pleased with their performance.
• Last quarter they didn’t have much visibility beyond 3-6 months. Q1 is ahead of thier expectations and they think this will continue
• All 3 sectors doing well
• Not seeing any macro problems for themselves, so it should just get better
• NVDA not a direct competitor yet on Ethernet side, and there’s just a 1% overlap with NVDA right now.
• They dont see customers waiting on Blackwell and they aren’t pausing their network so they believe they will continue to dominate
• Customers aren’t sparing money on networking.
• Q2 GUIDANCE:
• Revenue of 1.62-1.65, beat estimates by 1%
• Gross margin of 64%
• Operating margin of 44%

UBER - Shares down 7.7% on Q2 Gross bookings outlook and bookings disappointment for this quarter too.

• Looks like a big contrast compared to this and Lyft. Lyft are raising guidance and Uber are not. Lyft competition is biting on uber a bit here.
• • Gross bookings $37.65B, +20% y/y, EST $37.97B. Miss 0.9%
• • Mobility bookings $18.67B, +25% y/y, EST $19.15B. Miss 2.6%
• • Delivery bookings $17.70B, +18% y/y, EST $17.54B. Slight Beat.
• • Freight bookings $1.28B, -8.5% y/y, EST $1.28B. in Line.
• • Revenue $10.13B, +15% y/y, EST $10.11B. beat
• • ADJ EBITDA $1.38B, +82% y/y, EST $1.32B. beat
• • Loss per share $0.32 vs. loss/shr $8.00 y/y
• • Trips 2.57B, +21% y/y, EST 2.60B. miss.
• • Net loss $654M vs. loss $157M y/y
• • Monthly active platform consumers 149M, +15% y/y, EST 149.77M. Miss
• • Total stock-based compensation $484M, +3% y/y, EST $484.3M
• Missed in terms of bookings, missed in terms of Users and in terms of number of trips.
• ❖ GUIDANCE: Q2
• • Sees gross bookings $38.75B to $40.25B, EST $40.04B. MISS
• • Sees ADJ EBITDA $1.45B to $1.53B, EST $1.47B.
• Gross bookings guidance miss.

SHOP - stock is down 17%, despite beats almost across the board this quarter, due to the fact they are forecasting margins to decline sequentially, and also revenue forecast missing consensus.

• Revenue $1.86B, +23% y/y, EST $1.84B. Slight beat.
• • Monthly recurring revenue $151M, +30% y/y, EST $149M. Slight beat.
• • Merchant Solutions revenue $1.4B, +24% y/y, EST $1.34B. beat.
• • Subscription revenue $511M, +34% y/y, EST $498.1M. Slight beat.
• • Gross merchandise volume $60.86B, +23% y/y, EST $59.46B. Beat
• • ADJ EPS $0.20 vs. $1.00 y/y, EST $0.17. Beat.
• • Gross payment volume $36.24B, +32% y/y, EST $35.06B. Beat
• • ADJ gross profit $962M, EST $943.6M. beat
• • ADJ gross margin 52%, EST 51.3%. Beat
• • R&D expenses $335M, -27% y/y
• Volume:
• Gross mErchandise Volume was 60.86B vs 59B expected. BEAT
• Gross Payments Volume was 36B, beating estimates of 35B. BEAT
• So this quarter was a beat pretty much across the board.
• Q2 guidance:
• Revenue high teen % growth vs 20% growth expected.
• GROSS MARGINS EXPECTED TO DECREASE 50 BPS vs Q1 2024. So they are expecting sequential decline in Margins.
• Comments:
• Strongest version in our history with Q1 performance
• Strong start this year and operational discipline

RIVN

• EPS of -1.48 vs estimates of -1.15. SO bigger loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue was 1.2B, beat by 2.5%, and up 2.5% YOY
• Q1 operating loss was 1.48B, bigger loss by 14%
• SO producing wider than expected losses on stronger than expected revenue
• Produciton:
• Vehicles produced 13,980
• Vehicles delivered 13,588
• 2024 R1S was the best selling EV in the US above $70k
• Gross profit per vehicle delivered was -38,784. Sot hey are making big losses per vehicle delivered, due to significant impact from supplier and other costs.
• Net loss worsened
• Operational expenses increased to 957M from 898M
• Stock based compensation is higher too which is no good considering the company is making losses.
• Unveiled new midsize platform underpinning R2, R3 and R3X models
• Announced plans to begin R2 production in Illinios in H1
• Received $827M in subsides from Illinois for Plant expansion
• Outlook:
• Reaffirmed FY guidance for Produciton: 57,000 vehicles
• Anticipates a modest profit in Q4 2024.
• Said Q1 results exceeded outlook and set a strong foundation for rest of the year
• Continues to focus on ramping up Produciton and improving efficiencies.
• Capital efficiency is big priority
• Said on track to improve financial metrics significantly driven by cost reductions and enhanced manufacturing processes.
• Says the state incentives from Illinois is v good for them

TWLO - missed on revenue guidance. Overall not bad earnings though I think

• EPS of 0.8, beat estimates by 35%
• Revenue of 1.05B was a beat by 1%. Is up 4% YOY
• Organic revenue growth of 7% YOY
• GAAP loss from operations improved by 84% YOY.
• Dollar based retention rate was 102%
• Operating cash flow of 190M significant improvement from last year at 97M
• FCF Significant improvement to 177M from 114M
• Non gasp income was 160M, up from 103M last year.
• Share buyback of 3B in total, 1.5B is already done
• Guidance for Q2:
• Eps of 0.64-0.68 (beat estimates by 1.5%)
• Revenue of 1.055B, missed estimates by 2.4%
• So EPS was better, but Revenue missed.
• Full Year guidance:
• Raised Operations guidance Net income to 585-635M
• Reaffirmed Full year revenue growth of 5-10%
• So maintained full year guidance.
• Commentary:
• Solid Q1 results. Building on their recent momentum
• Progress has been made on profitability and free cash flow

LYFT

• EPS of -0.08 vs estimates of -0.16. So much narrower loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue of 1.3B, was up 28% YOY, beat by 12%
• Q1 net loss of 31.5M, vs loss previously of 187.6M
• OUTLOOK For next quarter:
• Gross bookings to be 4B-4.1B, which beats estimates by 1.2%. Thats a guidance for a sequential improvement of 10%, so strong guidance really
• EBITDA to be 95-100M, beating esimtates by 20%
• EBITDA margin to be 2.4% of gross bookings
• Operational highlights:
• Q1 rides were 188M, up 23% YOY
• Number of active riders was 21M up 12% YPOY
• Gross bookings was 3.7B, up 21% YOY.
• STRONG EARNIGNS

MAG7 NEWS

• TSLA - Proposed to launch robotaxis in China. Still awaiting FSD approval though for full implementation.
• TSLA - Lazr earnings show that Tesla was the largest Lidar customer for LAZR, accounting for 10% of their revenue in Q1 alone.
• TSLA - yesterday moved lower on report that they will shut production t German plant for 4 days.
• AAPL - China iPhone shipments jumped 12% in March, after discounting.
• AAPL event yesterday: Whats the latest?
• Announced new iPad Air with 2 ties, 11 inches and 13 inches for first time
• iPad Air is 50% faster and has M2 chip.
• Cost is 599 for 11 inch and 799 for 13 inch
• Introduces new Apple Pencil Pro, costing 129
• Unveils new iPad Pro featuring M4 chip with fresh design, thinnest AAPL product ever.
• MSFT - OpenAI is developing a search product that will rival GOOGL. This feature of chatGPT will enable users to search the web, display results and include ability to showcase images.
• MSFT - Will unveil 3.3B AI investment in battleground Wisconsin.
• GOOGL down slightly in premarket on this news

COMPANY NEWS

• Chinese stocks all lower on HKG market being lower, particularly so Li, Nio and XPEV.
• Li earnigns are after market today
• SNAP - down after $650M convertible debt offering
• BTC lower by 1% today back to 62,300 sends crypto mining stocks lower.
• Shop tanking on earnings - see review above.
• Uber lower on earnings - see review above
• ZI - tanks 23% on earnings. After missing EPS guidance and revenue guidance for next quarter.
• SHLS down 16% on earnings
• Ea down on earnigns after missing EPS and revenue metrics
• TM - Toyota buyback, up to 3% of their shares for 1 Trillian Yen by 2025 April.
• DV getting killed in premarket, down over 30%, after they cut its full year outlook due to uneven spending patterns among select large advertisers. Cut revenue guidance to 663-675m, a cut by 3.7%
• TTD may be down in sentiment, ahead of their earnings today
• INTC, QCOM - US administration has reportedly revoked export licenses which had allowed Intel and Wcom to supply chips to Huawei. This will impact Huawei ability to source chips for laptops and mobiles.
• CVNA - Hindenburg research raises concerns about potential accounting fraud at Caravan, citing a flood of 15 inbox ads alleging gradual red flats in the company’s financial practices.
• PTON - Private equity firms are apparently interested in Pton for a potential buyout.
• BIGC is exploring sale, amid market challenges
• ENR - Morgan Stnaley upgrades to equal weight from underweight, PT 33
• DDOG - Baird upgrades to outperform from Neutral, Price target 140 from 130
• IFF - JPM upgrades to overweight from Neutral, PT 100 from 75
• ODFL - upgraded by Baird to outperform from Neutral, Price target 205
• SHLS - Roth Downgrades to neutral from Buy
• COIN - Cathie Wood is selling Coinbase shares, offloads 15M worth of Coin.
• SNAP & META - Tiktok want to overturn Tiktok ban.
• ELAN up on earnings

OTHER NEWS:

• Swedish central bank has cut interest rates for first time since 2016. Said they expect to cut 2 more times in h2.
• Iran plans to raise oil output by 300k-400k b/d this year. One reason why oil prices lower.
• President going to Wisconsin, one of the battleground states, to announce plans by MSFT to build a $3.3B Ai high tech at a center, creating 2000 permanent jobs
• Tiktok Sues US government over Law forcing sale or ban. They say it violates First amendment rights. Said divesture is simply not possible.
• Kashkari quite hawkish comments yesterday, but he is not a voter until 2026, so his comments can be taken with pinch fo salt
• He said he questions policy restrictiveness given the recent inflation ata. Said that he questions whether disinflation is still underway.
• Said he’s questioning the neutral rate.
• Said Fed may have to hold rates steady all year.
• Russia hits military and energy targets in Ukraine with high precision weapons, and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles
• HSBC forecasts price of 25.38 for Silver in 2024. Says deficits help limit downside but above ground stocks are enough to fill the shortfall. So neutral overall.
• Bank of America say that investors should not sell in may and Go away this year, as they note that presidential election years can see big summer rallies.
• BTC ETFs see 2nd consecutive day of net gains. Every single fund in green with positive inflows.
• US concerns over Israels Gaza policy led to hold up in shipments of weapons.
• Suzuki was expressing strong concerns over impact of weak yen on prices.
• BOJ’s Ueda says they won’t target real wages in guiding monetary policy. Said that rapid 1 sided yen falls are negative for Japans economy and are undesirable
• Said they must be mindful that lower cost push inflation could discourage firms from passing on rising wages to sale prices. This could affect the wage price dynamic that they are targeting.
• Netherlands manufacturing Produciton declines 6% YOY

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Analysis:

• EURUSD: looks like trader are buying puts on EUR and selling calls in order to buy USD. Hence is lower today. Strong support still at 1.07. So expect the range of 1.07-1.08 to continue until we get next cue from the data. For now low volumes.
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level with the intervention. 152 is the key level. Above this, we see Bulls inc control on USDJPY. More talk of intervention but lets see if we can get below 152. Right now positioning points higher.
• Market today looks similar to yesterday.
• Skew is still pretty much where it was.
• QQQ is pinned under 440, will try to get above it again today.
• Vix still low and pointing lower so not expecting big volatility. Any dip will likely get bought as traders are short volatility.
• Mostly Chop.
• The main reason or chop is because traders are selling put options and there’s not much Out the money call gamma and delta for this opec. As such, market makers are just playing around at the key walls such as 440 on QQQ and 5200 on SPX.

DATA LEDE

• GER Industrial Production (Mar)
• Came -0.4% MOM, more or less in line with the -0.6% expected. Back to negative readings after 2 consecutive positive readings.
• US MBA Mortgage Apps
• US Wholesale Inventories (Mar)
• Fed Jefferson Speech
• Fed Collins Speech
• US 10Y Treasury auction
• US Fed Cook Speech

MARKETS:

• SPX Down slightly, trading at 5178. Yesterday got stopped under 5200. Today it can try to test again.
• Nasdaq: Trading at 18050. Down slightly. Support will be at 18k level.
• Dow Jones: Trading at 38,866. Will be trying to test 39k this week.
• HKG50 - Hong Kong MARKET lower by 1.5%.
• GEr40 - above 18,500. Now trading just a few points below the highs. Is up 0.5% today.
• Oil: Down by 1%, dips below 77. Signficnalty below the trend line now.
• Gold: Flat at 2,316. Choppy above 2300 which is the support
• VIX - VIX lwoer to 13.3

FX:

• AUD rejected from trend line - lower today tracking HKG lower and on the dovishness of RBA yesterday
• DXY slightly up, paring some of the losses from the jobs numbers now
• GBPUSD lower today as a result, trading just below 1.25 now
• EURUSD trading at 1.0745. Rejected off 1.08 2 days ago
• AUDUSD rejected off trend line, trading at 0.6564
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level.

EARNINGS
ANET

• EPS of 1.99 beat estimates by 14%
• Revenue of 1.571B beat estimates by 1.4%. That was an increase 16% YOY
• Operating margin was 47.4% vs 41.2% last year
• Gross margin was 63.7% up from 59% last year
• Net income was 637M, up from 436M last year
• SO V STRONG OEPRATIONAL METRICS
• Introduced CloudVision Universal Network Observability
• Enhanced Focus on AI with AI Etherlink platforms for high performance networking
• Commentary:
• Off to strong start and pleased with their performance.
• Last quarter they didn’t have much visibility beyond 3-6 months. Q1 is ahead of thier expectations and they think this will continue
• All 3 sectors doing well
• Not seeing any macro problems for themselves, so it should just get better
• NVDA not a direct competitor yet on Ethernet side, and there’s just a 1% overlap with NVDA right now.
• They dont see customers waiting on Blackwell and they aren’t pausing their network so they believe they will continue to dominate
• Customers aren’t sparing money on networking.
• Q2 GUIDANCE:
• Revenue of 1.62-1.65, beat estimates by 1%
• Gross margin of 64%
• Operating margin of 44%

UBER - Shares down 7.7% on Q2 Gross bookings outlook and bookings disappointment for this quarter too.

• Looks like a big contrast compared to this and Lyft. Lyft are raising guidance and Uber are not. Lyft competition is biting on uber a bit here.
• • Gross bookings $37.65B, +20% y/y, EST $37.97B. Miss 0.9%
• • Mobility bookings $18.67B, +25% y/y, EST $19.15B. Miss 2.6%
• • Delivery bookings $17.70B, +18% y/y, EST $17.54B. Slight Beat.
• • Freight bookings $1.28B, -8.5% y/y, EST $1.28B. in Line.
• • Revenue $10.13B, +15% y/y, EST $10.11B. beat
• • ADJ EBITDA $1.38B, +82% y/y, EST $1.32B. beat
• • Loss per share $0.32 vs. loss/shr $8.00 y/y
• • Trips 2.57B, +21% y/y, EST 2.60B. miss.
• • Net loss $654M vs. loss $157M y/y
• • Monthly active platform consumers 149M, +15% y/y, EST 149.77M. Miss
• • Total stock-based compensation $484M, +3% y/y, EST $484.3M
• Missed in terms of bookings, missed in terms of Users and in terms of number of trips.
• ❖ GUIDANCE: Q2
• • Sees gross bookings $38.75B to $40.25B, EST $40.04B. MISS
• • Sees ADJ EBITDA $1.45B to $1.53B, EST $1.47B.
• Gross bookings guidance miss.

SHOP - stock is down 17%, despite beats almost across the board this quarter, due to the fact they are forecasting margins to decline sequentially, and also revenue forecast missing consensus.

• Revenue $1.86B, +23% y/y, EST $1.84B. Slight beat.
• • Monthly recurring revenue $151M, +30% y/y, EST $149M. Slight beat.
• • Merchant Solutions revenue $1.4B, +24% y/y, EST $1.34B. beat.
• • Subscription revenue $511M, +34% y/y, EST $498.1M. Slight beat.
• • Gross merchandise volume $60.86B, +23% y/y, EST $59.46B. Beat
• • ADJ EPS $0.20 vs. $1.00 y/y, EST $0.17. Beat.
• • Gross payment volume $36.24B, +32% y/y, EST $35.06B. Beat
• • ADJ gross profit $962M, EST $943.6M. beat
• • ADJ gross margin 52%, EST 51.3%. Beat
• • R&D expenses $335M, -27% y/y
• Volume:
• Gross mErchandise Volume was 60.86B vs 59B expected. BEAT
• Gross Payments Volume was 36B, beating estimates of 35B. BEAT
• So this quarter was a beat pretty much across the board.
• Q2 guidance:
• Revenue high teen % growth vs 20% growth expected.
• GROSS MARGINS EXPECTED TO DECREASE 50 BPS vs Q1 2024. So they are expecting sequential decline in Margins.
• Comments:
• Strongest version in our history with Q1 performance
• Strong start this year and operational discipline

RIVN

• EPS of -1.48 vs estimates of -1.15. SO bigger loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue was 1.2B, beat by 2.5%, and up 2.5% YOY
• Q1 operating loss was 1.48B, bigger loss by 14%
• SO producing wider than expected losses on stronger than expected revenue
• Produciton:
• Vehicles produced 13,980
• Vehicles delivered 13,588
• 2024 R1S was the best selling EV in the US above $70k
• Gross profit per vehicle delivered was -38,784. Sot hey are making big losses per vehicle delivered, due to significant impact from supplier and other costs.
• Net loss worsened
• Operational expenses increased to 957M from 898M
• Stock based compensation is higher too which is no good considering the company is making losses.
• Unveiled new midsize platform underpinning R2, R3 and R3X models
• Announced plans to begin R2 production in Illinios in H1
• Received $827M in subsides from Illinois for Plant expansion
• Outlook:
• Reaffirmed FY guidance for Produciton: 57,000 vehicles
• Anticipates a modest profit in Q4 2024.
• Said Q1 results exceeded outlook and set a strong foundation for rest of the year
• Continues to focus on ramping up Produciton and improving efficiencies.
• Capital efficiency is big priority
• Said on track to improve financial metrics significantly driven by cost reductions and enhanced manufacturing processes.
• Says the state incentives from Illinois is v good for them

TWLO - missed on revenue guidance. Overall not bad earnings though I think

• EPS of 0.8, beat estimates by 35%
• Revenue of 1.05B was a beat by 1%. Is up 4% YOY
• Organic revenue growth of 7% YOY
• GAAP loss from operations improved by 84% YOY.
• Dollar based retention rate was 102%
• Operating cash flow of 190M significant improvement from last year at 97M
• FCF Significant improvement to 177M from 114M
• Non gasp income was 160M, up from 103M last year.
• Share buyback of 3B in total, 1.5B is already done
• Guidance for Q2:
• Eps of 0.64-0.68 (beat estimates by 1.5%)
• Revenue of 1.055B, missed estimates by 2.4%
• So EPS was better, but Revenue missed.
• Full Year guidance:
• Raised Operations guidance Net income to 585-635M
• Reaffirmed Full year revenue growth of 5-10%
• So maintained full year guidance.
• Commentary:
• Solid Q1 results. Building on their recent momentum
• Progress has been made on profitability and free cash flow

LYFT

• EPS of -0.08 vs estimates of -0.16. So much narrower loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue of 1.3B, was up 28% YOY, beat by 12%
• Q1 net loss of 31.5M, vs loss previously of 187.6M
• OUTLOOK For next quarter:
• Gross bookings to be 4B-4.1B, which beats estimates by 1.2%. Thats a guidance for a sequential improvement of 10%, so strong guidance really
• EBITDA to be 95-100M, beating esimtates by 20%
• EBITDA margin to be 2.4% of gross bookings
• Operational highlights:
• Q1 rides were 188M, up 23% YOY
• Number of active riders was 21M up 12% YPOY
• Gross bookings was 3.7B, up 21% YOY.
• STRONG EARNIGNS

MAG7 NEWS

• TSLA - Proposed to launch robotaxis in China. Still awaiting FSD approval though for full implementation.
• TSLA - Lazr earnings show that Tesla was the largest Lidar customer for LAZR, accounting for 10% of their revenue in Q1 alone.
• TSLA - yesterday moved lower on report that they will shut production t German plant for 4 days.
• AAPL - China iPhone shipments jumped 12% in March, after discounting.
• AAPL event yesterday: Whats the latest?
• Announced new iPad Air with 2 ties, 11 inches and 13 inches for first time
• iPad Air is 50% faster and has M2 chip.
• Cost is 599 for 11 inch and 799 for 13 inch
• Introduces new Apple Pencil Pro, costing 129
• Unveils new iPad Pro featuring M4 chip with fresh design, thinnest AAPL product ever.
• MSFT - OpenAI is developing a search product that will rival GOOGL. This feature of chatGPT will enable users to search the web, display results and include ability to showcase images.
• MSFT - Will unveil 3.3B AI investment in battleground Wisconsin.
• GOOGL down slightly in premarket on this news

COMPANY NEWS

• Chinese stocks all lower on HKG market being lower, particularly so Li, Nio and XPEV.
• Li earnigns are after market today
• SNAP - down after $650M convertible debt offering
• BTC lower by 1% today back to 62,300 sends crypto mining stocks lower.
• Shop tanking on earnings - see review above.
• Uber lower on earnings - see review above
• ZI - tanks 23% on earnings. After missing EPS guidance and revenue guidance for next quarter.
• SHLS down 16% on earnings
• Ea down on earnigns after missing EPS and revenue metrics
• TM - Toyota buyback, up to 3% of their shares for 1 Trillian Yen by 2025 April.
• DV getting killed in premarket, down over 30%, after they cut its full year outlook due to uneven spending patterns among select large advertisers. Cut revenue guidance to 663-675m, a cut by 3.7%
• TTD may be down in sentiment, ahead of their earnings today
• INTC, QCOM - US administration has reportedly revoked export licenses which had allowed Intel and Wcom to supply chips to Huawei. This will impact Huawei ability to source chips for laptops and mobiles.
• CVNA - Hindenburg research raises concerns about potential accounting fraud at Caravan, citing a flood of 15 inbox ads alleging gradual red flats in the company’s financial practices.
• PTON - Private equity firms are apparently interested in Pton for a potential buyout.
• BIGC is exploring sale, amid market challenges
• ENR - Morgan Stnaley upgrades to equal weight from underweight, PT 33
• DDOG - Baird upgrades to outperform from Neutral, Price target 140 from 130
• IFF - JPM upgrades to overweight from Neutral, PT 100 from 75
• ODFL - upgraded by Baird to outperform from Neutral, Price target 205
• SHLS - Roth Downgrades to neutral from Buy
• COIN - Cathie Wood is selling Coinbase shares, offloads 15M worth of Coin.
• SNAP & META - Tiktok want to overturn Tiktok ban.
• ELAN up on earnings

OTHER NEWS:

• Swedish central bank has cut interest rates for first time since 2016. Said they expect to cut 2 more times in h2.
• Iran plans to raise oil output by 300k-400k b/d this year. One reason why oil prices lower.
• President going to Wisconsin, one of the battleground states, to announce plans by MSFT to build a $3.3B Ai high tech at a center, creating 2000 permanent jobs
• Tiktok Sues US government over Law forcing sale or ban. They say it violates First amendment rights. Said divesture is simply not possible.
• Kashkari quite hawkish comments yesterday, but he is not a voter until 2026, so his comments can be taken with pinch fo salt
• He said he questions policy restrictiveness given the recent inflation ata. Said that he questions whether disinflation is still underway.
• Said he’s questioning the neutral rate.
• Said Fed may have to hold rates steady all year.
• Russia hits military and energy targets in Ukraine with high precision weapons, and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles
• HSBC forecasts price of 25.38 for Silver in 2024. Says deficits help limit downside but above ground stocks are enough to fill the shortfall. So neutral overall.
• Bank of America say that investors should not sell in may and Go away this year, as they note that presidential election years can see big summer rallies.
• BTC ETFs see 2nd consecutive day of net gains. Every single fund in green with positive inflows.
• US concerns over Israels Gaza policy led to hold up in shipments of weapons.
• Suzuki was expressing strong concerns over impact of weak yen on prices.
• BOJ’s Ueda says they won’t target real wages in guiding monetary policy. Said that rapid 1 sided yen falls are negative for Japans economy and are undesirable
• Said they must be mindful that lower cost push inflation could discourage firms from passing on rising wages to sale prices. This could affect the wage price dynamic that they are targeting.
• Netherlands manufacturing Produciton declines 6% YOY

For more of my analysis and daily reviews, please join Tradingedge
​

For more of my analysis and daily reviews, please join Tradingedge
Analysis:

• EURUSD: looks like trader are buying puts on EUR and selling calls in order to buy USD. Hence is lower today. Strong support still at 1.07. So expect the range of 1.07-1.08 to continue until we get next cue from the data. For now low volumes.
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level with the intervention. 152 is the key level. Above this, we see Bulls inc control on USDJPY. More talk of intervention but lets see if we can get below 152. Right now positioning points higher.
• Market today looks similar to yesterday.
• Skew is still pretty much where it was.
• QQQ is pinned under 440, will try to get above it again today.
• Vix still low and pointing lower so not expecting big volatility. Any dip will likely get bought as traders are short volatility.
• Mostly Chop.
• The main reason or chop is because traders are selling put options and there’s not much Out the money call gamma and delta for this opec. As such, market makers are just playing around at the key walls such as 440 on QQQ and 5200 on SPX.

DATA LEDE

• GER Industrial Production (Mar)
• Came -0.4% MOM, more or less in line with the -0.6% expected. Back to negative readings after 2 consecutive positive readings.
• US MBA Mortgage Apps
• US Wholesale Inventories (Mar)
• Fed Jefferson Speech
• Fed Collins Speech
• US 10Y Treasury auction
• US Fed Cook Speech

MARKETS:

• SPX Down slightly, trading at 5178. Yesterday got stopped under 5200. Today it can try to test again.
• Nasdaq: Trading at 18050. Down slightly. Support will be at 18k level.
• Dow Jones: Trading at 38,866. Will be trying to test 39k this week.
• HKG50 - Hong Kong MARKET lower by 1.5%.
• GEr40 - above 18,500. Now trading just a few points below the highs. Is up 0.5% today.
• Oil: Down by 1%, dips below 77. Signficnalty below the trend line now.
• Gold: Flat at 2,316. Choppy above 2300 which is the support
• VIX - VIX lwoer to 13.3

FX:

• AUD rejected from trend line - lower today tracking HKG lower and on the dovishness of RBA yesterday
• DXY slightly up, paring some of the losses from the jobs numbers now
• GBPUSD lower today as a result, trading just below 1.25 now
• EURUSD trading at 1.0745. Rejected off 1.08 2 days ago
• AUDUSD rejected off trend line, trading at 0.6564
• USDJPY higher to 155.45 again. This comes after failing to break the 152 level.

EARNINGS
ANET

• EPS of 1.99 beat estimates by 14%
• Revenue of 1.571B beat estimates by 1.4%. That was an increase 16% YOY
• Operating margin was 47.4% vs 41.2% last year
• Gross margin was 63.7% up from 59% last year
• Net income was 637M, up from 436M last year
• SO V STRONG OEPRATIONAL METRICS
• Introduced CloudVision Universal Network Observability
• Enhanced Focus on AI with AI Etherlink platforms for high performance networking
• Commentary:
• Off to strong start and pleased with their performance.
• Last quarter they didn’t have much visibility beyond 3-6 months. Q1 is ahead of thier expectations and they think this will continue
• All 3 sectors doing well
• Not seeing any macro problems for themselves, so it should just get better
• NVDA not a direct competitor yet on Ethernet side, and there’s just a 1% overlap with NVDA right now.
• They dont see customers waiting on Blackwell and they aren’t pausing their network so they believe they will continue to dominate
• Customers aren’t sparing money on networking.
• Q2 GUIDANCE:
• Revenue of 1.62-1.65, beat estimates by 1%
• Gross margin of 64%
• Operating margin of 44%

UBER - Shares down 7.7% on Q2 Gross bookings outlook and bookings disappointment for this quarter too.

• Looks like a big contrast compared to this and Lyft. Lyft are raising guidance and Uber are not. Lyft competition is biting on uber a bit here.
• • Gross bookings $37.65B, +20% y/y, EST $37.97B. Miss 0.9%
• • Mobility bookings $18.67B, +25% y/y, EST $19.15B. Miss 2.6%
• • Delivery bookings $17.70B, +18% y/y, EST $17.54B. Slight Beat.
• • Freight bookings $1.28B, -8.5% y/y, EST $1.28B. in Line.
• • Revenue $10.13B, +15% y/y, EST $10.11B. beat
• • ADJ EBITDA $1.38B, +82% y/y, EST $1.32B. beat
• • Loss per share $0.32 vs. loss/shr $8.00 y/y
• • Trips 2.57B, +21% y/y, EST 2.60B. miss.
• • Net loss $654M vs. loss $157M y/y
• • Monthly active platform consumers 149M, +15% y/y, EST 149.77M. Miss
• • Total stock-based compensation $484M, +3% y/y, EST $484.3M
• Missed in terms of bookings, missed in terms of Users and in terms of number of trips.
• ❖ GUIDANCE: Q2
• • Sees gross bookings $38.75B to $40.25B, EST $40.04B. MISS
• • Sees ADJ EBITDA $1.45B to $1.53B, EST $1.47B.
• Gross bookings guidance miss.

SHOP - stock is down 17%, despite beats almost across the board this quarter, due to the fact they are forecasting margins to decline sequentially, and also revenue forecast missing consensus.

• Revenue $1.86B, +23% y/y, EST $1.84B. Slight beat.
• • Monthly recurring revenue $151M, +30% y/y, EST $149M. Slight beat.
• • Merchant Solutions revenue $1.4B, +24% y/y, EST $1.34B. beat.
• • Subscription revenue $511M, +34% y/y, EST $498.1M. Slight beat.
• • Gross merchandise volume $60.86B, +23% y/y, EST $59.46B. Beat
• • ADJ EPS $0.20 vs. $1.00 y/y, EST $0.17. Beat.
• • Gross payment volume $36.24B, +32% y/y, EST $35.06B. Beat
• • ADJ gross profit $962M, EST $943.6M. beat
• • ADJ gross margin 52%, EST 51.3%. Beat
• • R&D expenses $335M, -27% y/y
• Volume:
• Gross mErchandise Volume was 60.86B vs 59B expected. BEAT
• Gross Payments Volume was 36B, beating estimates of 35B. BEAT
• So this quarter was a beat pretty much across the board.
• Q2 guidance:
• Revenue high teen % growth vs 20% growth expected.
• GROSS MARGINS EXPECTED TO DECREASE 50 BPS vs Q1 2024. So they are expecting sequential decline in Margins.
• Comments:
• Strongest version in our history with Q1 performance
• Strong start this year and operational discipline

RIVN

• EPS of -1.48 vs estimates of -1.15. SO bigger loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue was 1.2B, beat by 2.5%, and up 2.5% YOY
• Q1 operating loss was 1.48B, bigger loss by 14%
• SO producing wider than expected losses on stronger than expected revenue
• Produciton:
• Vehicles produced 13,980
• Vehicles delivered 13,588
• 2024 R1S was the best selling EV in the US above $70k
• Gross profit per vehicle delivered was -38,784. Sot hey are making big losses per vehicle delivered, due to significant impact from supplier and other costs.
• Net loss worsened
• Operational expenses increased to 957M from 898M
• Stock based compensation is higher too which is no good considering the company is making losses.
• Unveiled new midsize platform underpinning R2, R3 and R3X models
• Announced plans to begin R2 production in Illinios in H1
• Received $827M in subsides from Illinois for Plant expansion
• Outlook:
• Reaffirmed FY guidance for Produciton: 57,000 vehicles
• Anticipates a modest profit in Q4 2024.
• Said Q1 results exceeded outlook and set a strong foundation for rest of the year
• Continues to focus on ramping up Produciton and improving efficiencies.
• Capital efficiency is big priority
• Said on track to improve financial metrics significantly driven by cost reductions and enhanced manufacturing processes.
• Says the state incentives from Illinois is v good for them

TWLO - missed on revenue guidance. Overall not bad earnings though I think

• EPS of 0.8, beat estimates by 35%
• Revenue of 1.05B was a beat by 1%. Is up 4% YOY
• Organic revenue growth of 7% YOY
• GAAP loss from operations improved by 84% YOY.
• Dollar based retention rate was 102%
• Operating cash flow of 190M significant improvement from last year at 97M
• FCF Significant improvement to 177M from 114M
• Non gasp income was 160M, up from 103M last year.
• Share buyback of 3B in total, 1.5B is already done
• Guidance for Q2:
• Eps of 0.64-0.68 (beat estimates by 1.5%)
• Revenue of 1.055B, missed estimates by 2.4%
• So EPS was better, but Revenue missed.
• Full Year guidance:
• Raised Operations guidance Net income to 585-635M
• Reaffirmed Full year revenue growth of 5-10%
• So maintained full year guidance.
• Commentary:
• Solid Q1 results. Building on their recent momentum
• Progress has been made on profitability and free cash flow

LYFT

• EPS of -0.08 vs estimates of -0.16. So much narrower loss than expected
• Q1 Revenue of 1.3B, was up 28% YOY, beat by 12%
• Q1 net loss of 31.5M, vs loss previously of 187.6M
• OUTLOOK For next quarter:
• Gross bookings to be 4B-4.1B, which beats estimates by 1.2%. Thats a guidance for a sequential improvement of 10%, so strong guidance really
• EBITDA to be 95-100M, beating esimtates by 20%
• EBITDA margin to be 2.4% of gross bookings
• Operational highlights:
• Q1 rides were 188M, up 23% YOY
• Number of active riders was 21M up 12% YPOY
• Gross bookings was 3.7B, up 21% YOY.
• STRONG EARNIGNS

MAG7 NEWS

• TSLA - Proposed to launch robotaxis in China. Still awaiting FSD approval though for full implementation.
• TSLA - Lazr earnings show that Tesla was the largest Lidar customer for LAZR, accounting for 10% of their revenue in Q1 alone.
• TSLA - yesterday moved lower on report that they will shut production t German plant for 4 days.
• AAPL - China iPhone shipments jumped 12% in March, after discounting.
• AAPL event yesterday: Whats the latest?
• Announced new iPad Air with 2 ties, 11 inches and 13 inches for first time
• iPad Air is 50% faster and has M2 chip.
• Cost is 599 for 11 inch and 799 for 13 inch
• Introduces new Apple Pencil Pro, costing 129
• Unveils new iPad Pro featuring M4 chip with fresh design, thinnest AAPL product ever.
• MSFT - OpenAI is developing a search product that will rival GOOGL. This feature of chatGPT will enable users to search the web, display results and include ability to showcase images.
• MSFT - Will unveil 3.3B AI investment in battleground Wisconsin.
• GOOGL down slightly in premarket on this news

COMPANY NEWS

• Chinese stocks all lower on HKG market being lower, particularly so Li, Nio and XPEV.
• Li earnigns are after market today
• SNAP - down after $650M convertible debt offering
• BTC lower by 1% today back to 62,300 sends crypto mining stocks lower.
• Shop tanking on earnings - see review above.
• Uber lower on earnings - see review above
• ZI - tanks 23% on earnings. After missing EPS guidance and revenue guidance for next quarter.
• SHLS down 16% on earnings
• Ea down on earnigns after missing EPS and revenue metrics
• TM - Toyota buyback, up to 3% of their shares for 1 Trillian Yen by 2025 April.
• DV getting killed in premarket, down over 30%, after they cut its full year outlook due to uneven spending patterns among select large advertisers. Cut revenue guidance to 663-675m, a cut by 3.7%
• TTD may be down in sentiment, ahead of their earnings today
• INTC, QCOM - US administration has reportedly revoked export licenses which had allowed Intel and Wcom to supply chips to Huawei. This will impact Huawei ability to source chips for laptops and mobiles.
• CVNA - Hindenburg research raises concerns about potential accounting fraud at Caravan, citing a flood of 15 inbox ads alleging gradual red flats in the company’s financial practices.
• PTON - Private equity firms are apparently interested in Pton for a potential buyout.
• BIGC is exploring sale, amid market challenges
• ENR - Morgan Stnaley upgrades to equal weight from underweight, PT 33
• DDOG - Baird upgrades to outperform from Neutral, Price target 140 from 130
• IFF - JPM upgrades to overweight from Neutral, PT 100 from 75
• ODFL - upgraded by Baird to outperform from Neutral, Price target 205
• SHLS - Roth Downgrades to neutral from Buy
• COIN - Cathie Wood is selling Coinbase shares, offloads 15M worth of Coin.
• SNAP & META - Tiktok want to overturn Tiktok ban.
• ELAN up on earnings

OTHER NEWS:

• Swedish central bank has cut interest rates for first time since 2016. Said they expect to cut 2 more times in h2.
• Iran plans to raise oil output by 300k-400k b/d this year. One reason why oil prices lower.
• President going to Wisconsin, one of the battleground states, to announce plans by MSFT to build a $3.3B Ai high tech at a center, creating 2000 permanent jobs
• Tiktok Sues US government over Law forcing sale or ban. They say it violates First amendment rights. Said divesture is simply not possible.
• Kashkari quite hawkish comments yesterday, but he is not a voter until 2026, so his comments can be taken with pinch fo salt
• He said he questions policy restrictiveness given the recent inflation ata. Said that he questions whether disinflation is still underway.
• Said he’s questioning the neutral rate.
• Said Fed may have to hold rates steady all year.
• Russia hits military and energy targets in Ukraine with high precision weapons, and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles
• HSBC forecasts price of 25.38 for Silver in 2024. Says deficits help limit downside but above ground stocks are enough to fill the shortfall. So neutral overall.
• Bank of America say that investors should not sell in may and Go away this year, as they note that presidential election years can see big summer rallies.
• BTC ETFs see 2nd consecutive day of net gains. Every single fund in green with positive inflows.
• US concerns over Israels Gaza policy led to hold up in shipments of weapons.
• Suzuki was expressing strong concerns over impact of weak yen on prices.
• BOJ’s Ueda says they won’t target real wages in guiding monetary policy. Said that rapid 1 sided yen falls are negative for Japans economy and are undesirable
• Said they must be mindful that lower cost push inflation could discourage firms from passing on rising wages to sale prices. This could affect the wage price dynamic that they are targeting.
• Netherlands manufacturing Produciton declines 6% YOY

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