Melina perez panties

Dm por Telegram a @Njrny para entrar a grupo de Packs Cancun
Tengo contenido de Adaia Salazar, Adlay Madera, Agnes Bridget, Ale Avecedo, Alejandra Morin, Alejandra Ruiz, Aleisa, Aleydis Luna, Aline Proutiere, Alimigoni, Alexa Sophia, Alondra Peralta, Alondra Quintero, Alondra Trejo, Alondra Trujo, Ana Gamborino, Ana Paoga, Andrea Fink, Andrea Torner, Aneth Ochoa, Anette Ochoa, Angely Salinas, Arely Paz, Arely Paz, Audrey Parra, Aúrea Hernandez, Aysha, Barbara Ruiz, Bratley Mendoza, Brenda Vidal, Camila Marana, Camila Marana, Camila Romo, Camila Sevilla, Carol Saborido, Celine Cortes, Dafne Díaz, Dafne Hernandez, Daniela Aparicio, Daniela Corona, Daniela Folgar, Daniela Juarez, Daniela Madrazo, Daniela Mastache, Dayana Ortiz, Debahni Medina, Debería Luna, Diana Antelma Barrieta, Diana Villegas, Dulce Aguilera, Dulce Reyes, Emily Magsan, Estafanie Gonzales ñ, Fernanda Lopez, Fernanda Madrigal, Francesca Sama, Franchesca Kabral, Frida Espinosa, Frida Garcia, Frida Perez, Gaby Pinto, Gellytza, Grecia Garcia (Medicengree), Grecia Soto, Hanna Rosales, Ilse Azueta, Isabel, Itza Ramos, Jenn Gamboa, Jennifer Estrella, Jennifer Estrella, Jessica de la Torre Marisi, Jessica Pinto, Jhoana Ordoñez, Johana Gonzales, Joy Garcia, Julieta Martinez, Karime Kick, Karla Mesta, Kenia Soto, Kinari Jimenez, Kinari Jimenes, Kikue Mendez, La Kotexx, Leyetzi, Lilwoahb, Lorenza Glez, Lu Paola, Luna Negrete, Majo Rivera, Majo Zamora, Mar Rivas, Maria Mendoza, Maria Moreno, Marisel Osorio, Martina Madero, Mathilda Herrera, Maya de Keukeelere, Melany Oss, Melissa Leal, Melissa Navarro, Melina Novoa, Mezrounita, Michelle Compean, Miranda Sevilla, Miranda Sevilla, Monse Cas, Nat Hernandez, Nat Venegas, Nath Castillo, Nicole Mendoza, Nicol Mendoza, Nisreen Alturk, Paloma Gomez, Pame Bustos, Pame Llera, Pamela Castan, Paola Bocanegra Castro, Paola Conde, Paola Eliza, Paola Islas, Pao Avila, Paris, Priscila Nava, Priscila Romo, Rebeca Almanza, Regina de la Torre, Renata Guzman, Renata Perez, Renata Violante, Rosario Rojas, Rosario Sanchez, Sandy Esquivel, Sary Mena, Sherlyn Hernandez, Sofia Favela, Sofia Favela, Sofia Quintal, Sofia Tyler, Sophia Lorent, Sophie Guzman, Sophie Lorent, Stephania Sanchez, Tamara Vallejo, Tania Vazquez, Tiare Soto, Valentina Graham, Valentina Urrieta, Valeria Albino, Vale Vazquez, Vale Villa, Valery Obadash, Vanne Armendariz Guerra, Vasthy Salas, Vivi Quintal, Ximena Campos, Ximena Ruiz, Ximena Villagomez, Ximena Villalobos, Yadhi Palacios, Zoe Anhorn.

…he’s done NOTHING to aid his friend for over two months?
Did she confide her “plan with The Girls” with Superman beforehand?
And why, in her one page back in the star-spangled panties, are the panties not star-spangled? It’s obviously a Perez homage to WW (check the tiara) and Cheetah from that era.
I’m so bored with this endless story.

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Daha önceden en iyi ilk 100 porno yıldızını (bence) paylaşmıştım bu sefer listeyi güncelleyip porno yıldızı sayısını 100 den 600 e çıkardım bu liste tamamen benim şahsi fikrimdir yani bana göre en iyi ilk 600 porno yıldızı bunlardır sizde favorilerinizi yazın tartışalım.

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Lifetime - Staked: 751.4u, Profit/Loss: +36.29u, ROI: 4.83%, Parlay Suggestions: 151-50 Dog of the Week: 11-9
2024 - Staked: 104.3u, Profit/Loss: 2.93u, ROI: 2.81%
It was very short lived, but I’ve decided to stop doing the podcast. It just took way too much time to record and edit each week, and I already dedicate enough time to this game.
Feels kind of redundant to even leave the link up here, given how bad results were on that last card, but if anyone wants to tip me for me work: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/SideswipeMMA
As always, scroll down for UFC 299 Breakdowns. The following is just a recap of last event’s results.
UFC Vegas 87 (PREVIOUS CARD)
Staked: 16.25u
Profit/Loss: -10.33u
Parlay Suggestions: 2-2
Really bad event from me, no two ways about it. Not only did the pre-event bets suck, but I started adding mid event (Anders ITD and Erceg Decision) which is never a good idea. Not much else to say, except I think I’ve got some really good reads on this UFC 299 event and I’m really excited for it. Took a big step downwards last night, but still 40-ish events left in the year!
❌ 2u Shamil Gaziev to Win at -125
✅ 2u Vitor Petrino & Mateusz Gamrot to Win at -105 (rolls over next week)
❌ 2u Mokaev/Perez Doesn’t Go the Distance at -137
❌ 1u Steve Erceg to Win by Decision at +325
❌ 2.5u Eryk Anders to Win ITD at +125
❌ 1.5u Benardo Sopaj to Win at +125
✅ 2u Rodriguez/Ortega o1.5 Rnds & Christian Leroy Duncan to Win at -104 (won +1.92u)
❌ 3u Javid Basharat & Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win at -175
❌ 0.25u Parlay Pieces at +325
​
UFC 299
Very excited for this card, as I’ve been sitting on quite a few bets for it for a good couple of months now. Gamrot was available at -225 for some time. Can’t wait to see the squares cramming him into their 10-folds at -500 or whatever he closes at.
I’m definitely getting a bit antagonistic these days, aren’t I? Think I’m growing tired of how painful 90% of the posts on this sub have become. We’ve got people literally spiralling out of control with gambling problems, people parlaying a couple of +400s, people cramming -1200 Umar into a 10fold and asking for thoughts? I never used to understand how people could be so dumb back when I was an MMA trader, but this sub has shown that the books will always be making money.
Anyway, back to the reason we’re all here…
​
Sean O’Malley v Marlon Vera
Marlon Vera was one of my favourite fighters when he was a prelim guy. Betting him to win ITD, or finish in rounds 2 or 3 was a goldmine back then. However, as he’s climbed the rankings, my opinions of him haven’t really changed at all, which is actually a bit of a concern really considering th level of competition is getting better. You can’t rely on just pure dangerousness at Bantamweight, you need to be well-rounded and able to win minutes, or you’ll get shut out and exposed by the division’s best. Cory Sandhagen and Jose Aldo already did it to Chito, but the likes of Merab, Petr Yan, TJ Dillashaw, Aljo Sterling, and Henry Cejudo would all have done the same I think. With that in mind, it’s quite crazy that Vera is fighting for a title here, because I don’t even think he’s top 5 in my skill rankings.
This is why I say Vera hasn’t really changed: He was a slow starter that gave himself an uphill battle back in the day (hence betting him in R2 or 3), and he still does pretty much the same thing. He lost R1 against Davey Grant, lost two rounds against Edgar, lost the first round against Font and actually most of the minutes of that fight, lost the first two rounds to Cruz. The only anomaly since 2020 was most recently against Pedro Munhoz, and the majority of the MMA Media actually think he lost that one (can’t say I agree but still a concern!). Vera’s definitely a five-round fighter, which is why he’s managed to make it this far despite still being capable of losing to non-top 15 guys (imagine Vera fighting three rounds against a super durable guy with decent cardio. That’s a close fight).
So onwards to O’Malley. He’s a very polarising guy - he’s flashy, cocky, and people are still reeling over the result of that Petr Yan fight (I think he clearly lost but it wasn’t a ROBBERY robbery). But despite all the bravado, I think it’s his defensive fundamentals that have made him so successful a fighter – O’Malley is actually incredibly hard to hit with head strikes. He’s evasive, has great footwork and manages distance really well. He has actually defended 75% of the total significant head strikes that his opponents have thrown in the UFC, which is such an impressive statistic.
So basically, I don’t have a whole lot of faith that Chito is going to get the knockout here which, given the very long winded and detailed second paragraph, basically means I don’t actually think he has a super clear path to victory. He’s not a good minute winner, and O’Malley’s dexterity of strikes and speed should see him win rounds with relative ease as long as he’s staying safe from power. If Rob Font and Jose Aldo can do it, Suga Sean absolutely can.
There are some other narratives to look at though, namely the leg kicks of Chito and the frailty of Sean’s lead leg. Funnily enough, I actually bet Chio as a +200ish underdog to beat O’Malley when the first fought, because I believed O’Malley’s leg durability was a serious weakness of his (as seen in the Andre Soukhamthath fight which was obviously much more fresh in the memory). O’Malley rolled his ankle in the fight and clearly was compromised, so I ended up looking like a bit of a genius when I had absolutely no idea what I was doing as a bettor (also, having rewatched that back, Joe Rogan was even washed as a commentator back then! He didn’t even clock it).
Since then, O’Malley’s managed to keep those leg weakness concerns at bay, because he hasn’t really suffered anything negative of that type. Furthermore, it was O’Malley rolling the ankle that caused the injury, not Vera’s leg kicks, so it wasn’t even anything that vera did except crowd him. To believe that Vera’s going to be able to exploit that, when the likes of Sterling, Yan, and MUNHOZ (one of the best leg kickers in MMA history) couldn’t…it’s a bit of a reach in my opinion.
So, from a betting perspective, O’Malley sits at -200 here…which I just don’t think is short enough. I got on him at -188 for good measure, and I think he should be at least -250 here, probably -300 even. He’s a nightmare kind of fighter for an opponent that relies on damage and big moments, and Vera is a gift of a matchup for a guy with higher volume and good footwork. Vera’s pulled many stoppage victories out of his ass, but I think Suga Sean is just too tall an order. I’m on O’Malley for 3u here. It would be more, but I don’t really like going big on fighters who have a history of being injury prone, especially inside the cage.
How I line this fight: Sean O’Malley -250 (71%), Marlon Vera +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: 3u Sean O’Malley to Win (-188)
Prop leans: None
​
Dustin Poirier v Benoit St Denis
Lots to say about this fight! My initial thoughts were that this feels like a really generous price on St Denis, given he’s the one surging and looking unstoppable, whilst Poirier’s clinging onto his spot in the rankings for dear life and refusing to fight anyone other than those in the Red Panty Night League. DP has a 63% takedown defence, is 35 years old, and is never going to achieve anything noteworthy in his MMA career ever again, considering he’s been a champion, and got the McGregor money TWICE. DP’s just chilling, he probably doesn’t have the hunger for it anymore, otherwise he’d be taking on some up-and-comers like Gaethje did. At the very least he’d be trying to fight Dariush, who was never considered a super risky fight for any of those guys. Honestly I can’t wait for the day Poirier and Chandler get the fuck out the way and let the new guard get comfortable in the top 5. Armen Tsarukyan dog walks them both, it’s ridiculous they’re allowed to clog up the division like that.
But then I remind myself that Benoit St Denis is a specialist, and specialists don’t usually thrive at the absolute top of the division unless they make themselves well-rounded - Even Khabib and Islam worked hard on their striking (Islam knocked down Charles and KO’d Volk, Khabib knocked down Conor). BSD’s striking has historically not been good at all. Look at what Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos did to him, look at how basic he looked against Gabriel Miranda. Forward pressure and a baseball bat body kick, that’s literally all he’s shown. And if you watch back his most recent fight, he doesn’t appear to have evolved that much at all.
The signs were all there, and it made me bet Matt Frevola last time, because I thought Steamrolla was a superior striker who had the grappling ability to keep things standing. The fight only lasted 90 seconds, but I do think I was really onto something there because for 85 seconds, that’s what we got. Frevola got the better of the scrambles and was looking more competitive than a lot of BSD’s recent opponents…and then the Frenchman threw a headkick that Frevola just decided not to defend. I don’t know if he didn’t see it coming or whatever, but it was pretty amateur of Frevola not to be defending himself there.
I know I’ll get some shit for saying this, and perhaps it is a hot take…but I think that was a bit of a flukey result. I’m still very convinced that, had that head kick not landed, we would have seen a very competitive fight and Frevola would have made everyone re-calibrate their opinions on Benoit. I’m sure of it, and it’s really annoying to lose a bet because of a low % outcome that I deem pure luck. It wasn’t a case of BSD winning the fight for himself, it was Frevola self-sabotaging.
Anyway, back to this fight. After considering what I make of BSD’s abilities on the feet, I considered how it will translate against Dustin. The above paragraph obviously tells you that a 15 minute striking affair favours Poirier, but there are some key differences between that fight and this fight – differences that make me think this is was an easier matchup for Frevola than it is for Poirier.
Yes Dustin is the superior striker, but the context completely changes when you’re facing a high pressure, strong, hard hitting, and physically imposing fighter that’s got a seemingly granite chin. Not all of those things are directly comparable to Merab Dvalishvili, but I think of him as a great example of someone who can use a physical trait (IE his elite cardio) to turn a B level skill into an A+ one, and Saint Denis is the same. The Frenchman is so intense and powerful that he will force you to take the backwards step (especially with that body kick), and from there you’re going to have to circle or he’ll shoot on you against the fence. For Frevola, that wasn’t then end of the world because he’s a very good scrambler and actually turned it into his advantage…for Poirier it probably results in him spending time on his back and entering into the realm where BSD is best and Dustin is worst. From that point, remind yourself how BSD mauled a BJJ fighter like Thiago Moises….what will be do to Poirier?
So Poirier is going to have to be cautious and time his strikes perfectly, because he can’t get overzealous. Immediately that narrows his path to victory because his output will be lowered. Furthermore, he isn’t a one-punch KO type of guy, and BSD has an insane chin, which means he’s going to need a few instances of catching the Frenchman. That narrows the path to victory even more.
To conclude, I don’t like this fight for Poirier from a contextual point of view, nor from a stylistic point of view. He has a puncher’s chance, and this ain’t no Kevin Holland vs Michael Chiesa situation. Initially I felt the betting line was kind of fair, given it was a striker vs grappling affair, but the aforementioned finer details make me think this gives BSD an advantage that’s far significant than 10% (he’s -150 at the time of writing, which is 60% probability). I think it’s more of a 65-70 kind of advantage, so BSD is clearly the value side. I’ve therefore got 3u on Saint-Denis to win at -150.
How I line this fight: Dustin Poirier +200 (33%), Benoit Saint-Denis -200 (67%)
Bet or pass: 3u Benoit Saint Denis to Win at -137
Prop leans: I might possibly play BSD by Submission for 0.5u
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Kevin Holland v Michael Page
You won’t find an MMA fan that’s less excited for this fight than me. Never been a Kevin Holland fan, never been an MVP fan. I don’t like fighters that are overly flashy, and are only interested in standup fights. The fans usually love them because so many of them are JUST BLEED fans that think the ground game is homoerotic, but I’ve always been a bettor before I’ve been a fan…and those guys are useless because they’re so untrustworthy.
I can’t explain this one more any simpler than by going back to square one. We are betting on the winners of fights. You are putting your hard-earned money on Fighter A to win an MMA contest against Fighter B.
Both Kevin Holland and Michael Page do not step into the cage to try and win their fights, they simply want to score a finish or entertain the crowd. That may sound likely I’m being dramatic, but Kevin Holland literally let Wonderboy Thompson stand up multiple times when they fought last year. That is not a man who is trying to win a fight. That’s like winning a football game and deliberately not running to the endzone when there are no defenders in front of you, because you don’t want the scoreline to become too one-sided for the fans.
You can try and predict this fight and pick a winner for your longshot parlay all you like, but in terms of pure betting, you’re an idiot if you think betting either of these guys is a good idea. That’s all I have to say.
How I line this fight: I don’t think their combined IQs add up to 100
Bet or pass: Pass. Bet on the ML here and you deserve to lose in a hilarious way.
Prop leans: None
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Gilbert Burns v Jack Della Maddalena
I broke this one down at the end of 2023. My opinions haven’t really changed on the fight itself, but I am starting to evolve my overall ability to dissect striker vs grappler fights (as I think the above breakdown of BSD/Poirier has kind of shown). I’ve made amendments to the original breakdown below, and completely changed my betting conclusion to the fight, so it’s worth another read!
Jack Della Maddalena is a phenomenal striker, I know that. I bet on him to beat Kevin Holland at the early price of like +125 (I then arb’d out of it when the odds flipped), so I respect and rate his skills on the feet. But that fight against Bassil Hafez showed everyone what I’ve been trying to say since he made his DWCS appearance, he is an absolutely shocking grappler and you simply cannot make it all the way to the top with a gaping hole like that.
The UFC know this too, as they’ve made sure to keep him safe from capable grapplers every step of the way. They had to make quick adjustments when he fought Hafez on short notice, but how bad must your grappling be for you not to be able to handle the wrestling of a guy like Hafez – who went to a split decision against Anthony Ivy and had to get a redemption win against Evan Cutts. It’s not just this fight that we saw it, he also struggled against Ange Loosa on DWCS! I know I’m talking like JDM officially lost that Hafez fight when he didn’t, but he might as well have done and his stock has fallen as a result.
The UFC are giving JDM a sink or swim kind of challenge here, pitting him against Gilbert Burns to see if he’s ever going to be ready to be a serious contender. Durinho is one of the most credentialled BJJ guys the UFC has ever seen, and he’s also got pretty decent wrestling to use a lay-and-pray gameplan when it suits him, like against Jorge Masvidal.
That fight is a pretty key reference point when breaking this one down – superior striker vs well-rounded opponent who can utilise grappling. Masvidal may have been washed and nowhere near the level of JDM in that fight, but seeing Burns identify the gap in skill and weaponise it could be a pretty telling sign.
Obviously there are concerns on the return though – JDM’s a capable enough striker to stop Burns before he even gets his grappling going, or perhaps Burns fights like an idiot and doesn’t look to grapple. The former is possible, but I’ve since realised that the latter is quite likely.
Initially I said that I thought Burns should be -200 and that his grappling would be too much for JDM, and whilst I do still anticipate that summary being true, I think I’m overestimating Burns’ wrestling and cardio a fair bit. He has become well rounded enough with his striking that he doesn’t NEED to shoot for takedowns like a Michael Chiesa or a Bryce Mitchell, and he even said so himself in a recent interview, stating that this fight was going to see him use all of his skills. However, the aforementioned style of Chiesa/Mitchell is exactly the kind of style you need to win a fight like this. Hafez had the right archetype, essentially thinking “the standup is lava” and shooting for his life 20 times. Burns won’t do that, and I don’t even think he can. Considering damage is the key metric in scoring fights these days, I think Burns will be giving himself an uphill battle with every second he stays on the feet…but I just can’t see him shooting more than seven times in this fight.
So in summary, I think this one is actually right to be lined so close, because it all depends on Gilbert Burns’ gameplan and that’s not something we will know about in advance. If Burns shows no interest in striking with JDM, he can look -400….if he attempts any less than three takedowns I think he should clearly be an underdog. Therefore, it’s no bet from me. Apologies for changing my stance on this one, but I’m not too prideful to admit I was wrong about this originally, and it’s taken a few losses in striker vs grappler matchups this year (Semelsberger, Petrosyan) to realise I need to re-assess the way I look at them. Even if Burns goes out there and wins like he did against Neil Magny, I won’t mind having passed. The fact it was only a 1u bet to begin with when the rest of my futures were like 3-5u punts probably indicates I wasn’t too confident anyway!
How I line this fight: Gilbert Burns -125 (55%), Jack Della Maddalena +125 (45%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
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Curtis Blaydes v Jailton Almeida
First things first, I’ve gotta give credit to u/MementoMori29 for pretty much being the first to say all of the below, way back during fight week for Imavov v Dolidze. I hadn’t looked into the fight but his breakdown of it was really well thought out and I’m essentially echoing it here (having done my own research of course).
On paper this could be a stylistic nightmare for Jailton Almeida. We know him as someone with awful striking and average wrestling, but his ground game is far superior to the division’s average so it hasn’t mattered so far. I always say that Heavyweight is the best division to be a wrestlegrappler, because most of the top 25 are still one-dimensional power punchers with the grappling skillset of guys from UFC 10.
But Curtis Blaydes is a rare exception to that. He’s the division’s best wrestler, and he has the cardio to do it for 25 minutes. I wouldn’t exactly call Blaydes “one-dimensional”, but his striking is mediocre at best and is often the source of his downfall. In fact, every single loss of his MMA career has been because he’s been out-struck (IE finished via strikes). That’s very unlikely to be the case here because he’s clearly a superior striker to Jailton Almeida.
So if Jailton can’t exploit Blaydes’ weakness to striking, can he go out there and hit his own proven path to victory with top control and submissions? Well, to do so he’s got to take down a career-long wrestler, which is a tall order. Don’t let the 33% takedown defence fool you, Blaydes won’t be easy to get to the mat. There’s always a chance he could catch him in an opportunistic guillotine or front choke on a takedown entry, or even a guard submission…but I don’t think you can really hang a whole lot of win probability on something low percentage like that. Especially considering I don’t think Curtis is going to feel particularly threatened on the feet and find himself panic wrestling. If the guy has the balls to stand with Pavlovich, I fucking hope he’s feeling confident to go toe to toe with Almeida.
So, with all that being said, why is this fight a pick’em? In terms of MMA attributes, I really don’t know, but I assume that the majority of it comes from the narrative and public opinion of both men.
Curtis Blaydes is currently a disgrace due to his terrible fight IQ, and rightly so. Opting NOT to shoot takedowns on Sergei Pavlovich and let yourself get KO’d in the opening round is honestly one of the lowest IQ performances I have ever seen in all my years watching MMA. For that reason, I can totally understand why everyone is very cold on Blaydes, because can we trust him to do the right thing and not piss away an obvious gameplan? Probably not…
Jailton, on the other hand, has been as dominant as can be in his UFC/DWCS career so far, having barely broken a sweat in his seven wins. Whilst that’s undeniable, they have all been fights that have been stylistically favourable to him (to be honest 90% of fights at 265lbs are stylistically favourable to him!), but that doesn’t apply here because Blaydes is (at least on paper) someone who can keep the fight standing.
So in short, this is definitely an opportunity to fade the hype train. Almeida’s great at what he does, but Blaydes is supposed to be a nightmare matchup against someone of that style. If these were two guys making their UFC debuts with no prior context other than their UFC footage, I think Blaydes would be -200 here at least. I understand that he’s hard to trust, but so many of his boneheaded moves result in him getting KO’d. With that not seeming like a strong possibility here, I am happy to trust Blaydes for 2u at +100. It would be a higher stake, but I just couldn’t forgive myself if Curtis did something stupid and I was overexposed on the money line.
How I line this fight: Curtis Blaydes -175 (64%), Jailton Almeida +175 (36%)
Bet or pass: 2u Curtis Blaydes to Win (+100)
Prop leans: Probably a Blaydes decision but I’ll stick to Moneyline. No idea how Jailton will fair as a nail.
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Petr Yan v Song Yadong
I’m pretty sure it’s recency bias, but there’s something about Petr Yan that I’m just not convinced by these days. He’s obviously coming off back-to-back losses, which is pretty shocking in and of itself, but the manner in which he got completely shut out by Merab was eye opening.
My main issue with Yan is that he’s quite a slow starter, which plays a key part in this fight with it being a three rounder. Much like Vera in the main event, being given 25 minutes to work is a huge benefit, as you can afford to drop the opening five minutes and hope to turn it around in the next four. In Yan’s case here, he’s got no choice but to win two and three, or find a finish, if he has yet another slow start here.
Song Yadong on the other hand has really impressed me lately. This is obviously a step up in competition for him compared to his last fight (a main event win over Ricky Simon), but don’t forget Song was tied 2-2 against Cory Sandhagen in their five round showdown last year (on two of the three scorecards). Just think, if that was a three rounder…the Chinese fighter would have won there too.
Aside from that, this just feels like another one of these classic high level Bantamweight fights, where both Fighters A and B are well-rounded guys that prefer to strike, resulting in a competitive and entertaining long-distance affair. It’ll be close, but there won’t be any major moments. See the majority of Cory Sandhagen’s fights for examples.
I’m not saying there’s tonnes of value on Song Yadong here, just that I think this one is going to run close and that it’s going to be a more competitive fight than both the odds and other fans’ opinions. Aside from that, I don’t really think that analysing a fight like this in super detail plays to my strengths at all as a bettor, as neither guy has a glaring weakness to their game. I’m excited to see it, and I will be rooting for Song Yadong…but I’ve not got any interest in betting this one with the line where it currently is (with Song at about +115)
How I line this fight: Petr Yan +100 (50%), Song Yadong +100 (50%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
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Pedro Munhoz v Kyler Phillips
Speaking of well-rounded Bantamweights, we have these two facing off shortly after. Pedro Munhoz is a guy I’ve had a bit of a love/hate relationship with as a bettor. He’s cashed for me as an underdog on a few memorable occasions (the Chris Gutierrez one recently was one of my favourite bets that year), but I don’t think I’ll ever forgive him for shitting the bed at -250 and losing to Frankie Edgar (think I had 5u on him there, ouch).
I know Pedro’s style pretty well. He used to be so much more dangerous and opportunistic than he is now. There was a time where he was once feared for having one of the best guillotine chokes in the game, and it was basically his primary choice of takedown defence. He’s had moments of displaying big power in his hands also, as well as a serious leg kick that has caused problems for many fighters in the past.
Kyler Phillips less well-known to me because it feels like he fights infrequently. I have fond memories of dropping a massive bet on him to win ITD against Cameron Else (seriously what a mismatch!). The fact that that feels like a lifetime ago, and Kyler has only fought four times since, kind of proves my point about his inactivity.
He shows a lot of promise, and I think his striking and grappling are at a level where there’s a lot to get excited about regarding his future, but it’s important to compare the UFC competition he’s been going up against. The win against Song Yadong was impressive, but Song was much more flawed back then. Aside from that, he’s beaten an aged Raoni Barcelos. He also dropped the ball against Raulian Paiva back in the day too.
Just like I said in the above breakdown for Yan vs Yadong…the Bantamweight division is a very tricky place to be finding confident stylistic reads. Yet again we have two dudes who are durable and well-rounded, with a favouritism for striking. I expect this one to be reasonably competitive, with no moments of real danger, but unlike the above fight I do think we should expect to see Phillips gain the upper hand in each round. Of course there’s the worry that he death gasses like he did against Paiva, or that he’s overinflated his potential against lesser opposition…but I’ve never really rated Munhoz’s minute winning ability. He’s fought the who’s who of Bantamweight and he’s durable as fuck so never gets finished…but he’s therefore 4-8 in decisions in his UFC career. He’s beaten Chris Gutierrez, Jimmie Riveira, Bett Johns and Damian Stasiak on the scorecards…which suffering losses to the likes of Marlon Vera, Dom Cruz, Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar…a clear disparity in skill level.
I feel like the -225 price tag on Phillips is still a bit wide, given he’s probably got no real finishing threat and is relatively unproven AND has the potential to show bad cardio sometimes…but I’lll definitely be keeping an eye out for Phillips by Decision. To me that happens about 60% of the time so if I can get anything better than -125 I’d happily take it for a unit or two. I’d expect the books to be wise to it though, Pedro’s got one of the best chins in UFC history.
How I line this fight: Pedro Munhoz +175 (36%), Kyler Phillips -175 (64%)
Bet or pass: Xu Kyler Phillips to Win by Decision (-125 or better)
Prop leans: See above
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CJ Vergara v Asu Almabaev
Deleted my breakdown here to save on the character count, I'll put it in the comment section.
TLDR: Asu looked great but you're paying sophomore juice. CJ inferior but not bad at anti-grappling. I wouldn't bet -450.
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Katlyn Chookagian v Maycee Barber
Had to delete this breakdown due to the character count. I'll post it in the comment section.
TLDR: This is THE most complicated fight in WMMA history to break down. Both women fugazi the judges. Impossible to line..
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Mateusz Gamrot v Rafael dos Anjos
Another repost from December 2023. No change to my opinion or breakdown at all, except that I’ve since added another two units to Gamrot in a parlay with Vitor Petrino from last week, which obviously won. So here’s the copy/paste:
RDA isn’t getting any younger. He’s 39 now and has one hell of a career, still competing in top 15 battles after 47 professional bouts. Unfortunately, he’s very much a finished product, and the weaknesses his opponents have found and established are going to be a nightmare for him here. That weakness is his takedown defence and inability to work back to his feet.
RDA’s last performance against Vicente Luque confirmed this, because there we saw a fighter lean on a skillset that’s obviously not his strong suit, and still have enough success to get the job done. Luque landed eight takedowns in that fight, bringing his average takedowns landed to 1.04 per fight – which highlights how little he’s ever really tried to wrestle before that. In fact, the last time he landed a takedown was against Leon Edwards in 2017. He had no right to be able to just pull a completely unproven skillset out of his back pocket and coherently win a fight with it…which is a testament to how big of an issue RDA has in terms of takedown defence and scrambling.
So with that in mind, now sounds like an absolutely terrible time to face a fighter like Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot’s a very good wrestler, but his BJJ ability is world class. Not only that, but he’s been improving his striking in the meantime, as briefly seen in the recent main event against Fiziev.
Another key reason why I’m so confident here, is that RDA’s very much been leaning on his grappling to find success these days. He got a nice lay up against Bryan Barbarena where he just went and found an easy choke, and takedowns were the difference in wins over Renato Moicano and Paul Felder. I’d be surprised if he even lands a takedown on Gamrot here, let alone is able to hold him down afterwards. Without that, RDA’s probably going to have to hope for a KO shot to win the fight…which isn’t something he’s done since he beat Donald Cerrone as Lightweight champion back in 2015. Anything’s possible, but it’s not something I put a whole lot of percentage into.
To me, this could well be a -500 spot, given that RDA’s weaknesses align very heavily to the Polish fighter’s strengths. At the time I wrote this he was -225 everywhere, so it was a no brainer for me. I placed 4u on the -225, then parlay’d it for another 2u at -104.
How I line this fight: Mateusz Gamrot -500 (83%), Rafael dos Anjos +500 (17%)
Bet or pass: 4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225), 2u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-104)
Prop Leans: Very likely Gamrot by Decision, but I think I’ve got too much exposure on the moneyline to get involved. If the line is super nice I might add another 1.5u. We’ll see.
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Michel Pereira v Michal Oleksiejczuk
The Michael derby. I’m on the underdog here for a small roll of the dice. I think it should be a pick’em, but +130 is just about enough value for a small 1u play.
Michal Oleksiejczuk is one of my favourite fighters, and has been for years. In fact, I remember when I first started breaking down fights, I bet him for 5u at -250 against Ovince St Preux and it was the first time I ever placed a bet that big. I did a massive breakdown for it, (as a result I can now spell his surname without having to think about it) which I wrote during quiet periods of working in a William Hill betting shop on the high-street. Simpler times.
Michal is, in my opinion, one of the best boxers in the UFC. His hands are so fluid and quick, and he has a very healthy dose of power baked in there too. Another reason I like his style so much is that he attacks the body more frequently than anyone else. A lot of the time we reference a fighter who attacks the body, and it’s because they have a finish or two via a body strike…but Lord Michal finishes like 25% of his combinations with a hook to the body sometimes, and you can see how much it plays a part in crumbling the opponent.
Michal’s pretty much a journeyman at this point – we’ve seen him compete in enough UFC bouts to think we know where his overall ability sits in the division. However, I think his record is deceiving at a glance, because it undersells just how dominant a striker he is. A 7-4 record isn’t too impressive, but considering the losses are to OSP (taken down and submitted after throwing the kitchen sink at him and gassing), Caio Borralho (wrestlefucked and submitted), Jimmy Crute (aggressively wrestled and submitted), and Dustin Jacoby (close decision)…he’s only really being beaten when he’s being grappled. AND he fought most of his career at LHW when he is OBVIOUSLY a Middleweight.
With all that said, the grappling concerns are the reason I think Pereira is favoured here. Whilst he’s obviously a striker first, the Brazilian has shown a development in his game in the form of takedowns and top control, where he uses his strength to hold position and scatter a bit of ground and pound. It’s not the most technical or dominant work, but given Lord Michal’s always been susceptible to being grappled I think you have to assume Pereira can win that way across a 15 minute span.
However, that’s not Pereira’s strong suit, he’s a striker first. I think he’s the inferior striker here, and that’s where I see a difference in the line. All fights start standing, and Pereira’s likely to want to engage with Oleksiejczuk on the feet because it comes natural to him, so I think the path is wide open for the Polish fighter to assert his dominance. We know that damage is the key metric in scoring fights, so I’m thinking Lord Michal can assert himself as the round winner even if Pereira lands a takedown here and there.
This one is going to be close, and if the line wasn’t at +130 I wouldn’t be betting it here. I see 7% worth of value, and that’s enough for a play. It’s by no means a lock, and a Pereira win via KO or wrestle fucking really wouldn’t surprise me…but if we get a longer distance striking fight, then I think Oleksiejczuk proves himself the better striker. It should be +100 each.
How I line this fight: Michel Pereira +100 (50%), Michal Oleksiejczuk +100 (50%)
Bet or pass: 1u Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win (+130)
Prop leans: None
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Robelis Despaigne v Josh Parisian
I would never trust a Heavyweight at -400, let alone a debuting Heavyweight. Josh Parisian is fucking awful, possibly the P4P worst fighter on the roster…but any man with 4oz gloves at 265lbs is capable of winning a fight.
That’s literally all you need to know. Don’t bet on this fight when there’s so many higher calibre athletes on the card.
Joanne Wood vs Maryna Moroz
Two women I am very familiar with, and have had action on in a lot of their fights historically. Personally, I am once again confused by this line.
This is supposedly Calderwood’s retirement fight, which is usually a red flag at UFC level. However, JoJo is a pretty competitive woman, I don’t think she’ll be taking things easy in the build up here, as she seems to be pulling the plug on her career before I think she necessarily needs to, meaning she’s got the chance to earn the rare achievement of ending her career on a win.
She’s 2-4 in her last six, with three of those losses coming via an early submission (the other being a robbery to Murphy and her fugazi). That’s obviously another red flag, but to me it confirms that it’s less a case of JoJo being washed, just that she’s one dimensional.
There are very strange similarities to the previous fight here, because my betting angle is once again about fading the assumption of takedowns. Maryna Moroz is a well-rounded fighter, and one who holds a submission win over Calderwood already from her UFC debut back in 2015. She’s a decent grappler, and those qualities were enough for me to trust her to win as an underdog in her last fight against the highly overrated Karine Silva. The same logic was applied by the bookmakers when she was a -200 favourite to beat Jennifer Maia the fight before (with Maia coming off the back of showing grappling deficiencies against both Fiorot and Chookagian).
Guess who attempted 0 takedowns in both fights? And guess who got outstruck on the feet and refused to switch up her gameplan? Yep, Maryna Moroz. In fact, with those fights included, her UFC record sees her land 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. And that’s very significant here, because if this is a pure kickboxing fight I think Calderwood should be favoured slightly.
I trusted Moroz to add takedowns to her gameplan when she fought Silva and she didn’t, so now I’m trusting her not to. Calderwood is the slightly better striker of the two, and at the very least this one should be very competitive and hard to score if it’s 15 minutes of striking. For that reason, I see clear value on Calderwood here.
However, I still think she deserves to be a slight underdog due to the threat of takedowns, or the fight just somehow hitting the mat, as well as the fact she’s older and retiring. For that reason, I don’t want to play her straight, but I will instead have a poke on the Decision prop. JoJo has never been a finisher, so it gives me a slightly better price compared to the moneyline I’m already hesitant to play.
How I line this fight: Joanne Wood +120 (45%), Maryna Moroz -120 (55%)
Bet or pass: 0.5u Joanne Wood to Win by Decision (+200 or better)
Prop leans: See above
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Philipe Lins vs Ion Cutelaba
I didn’t even know this fight was on the card until I made my final checks in thinking I’d finished the whole breakdown. There isn’t even a betting line out for it so clearly I wasn't the only one who didn't know! Thankfully these are two very untrustworthy guys at 205lbs, so there’s no chance I’d have any interest in betting on it anyway. Didn't do tape, and character count is at the limit, so I won't say anymore than this:
Ion Cutelaba is a meathead who falls apart after round one. Lins is an uninspiring point fighter tha fell off after entering USADA pool. USADA is no more, he might be better.
Lots of variance, obviously no interest in betting
Bets (Bold = been placed)
3u Sean O’Malley to Win (-188)
3u Benoit St. Denis to Win (-137)
4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225)
2u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-105) (Vitor Petrino ✅)
2u Kyler Phillips to Win by Decision (+100)
2u Curtis Blaydes to Win (+100)
1u Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win (+130)
1u Joanne Wood - Decision Only (+200)
Parlay Pieces: Sean O’Malley, Benoit St.Denis, Mateusz Gamrot (don't recommend any of them anymore, prices are toast. I'll still keep score with these though since I stated them from the start)
Dog of the Week: Michal Oleksiejczuk (It was Curtis Blaydes originally but he is now -110)
FUTURE BETS
3u Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win (-350)
2u Christian Rodriguez to Win (+114)
2u Charalampos Grigoriou to Win (-188)
2u Cory McKenna to Win (+100)
4u Alex Pereira to Win (-137)

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