It's the first time writing a longer fic for me, so I thought to put it out here, if anyone is interested. It also helps me to get feedback and comments on the plot.
Title: [Carve Me a Song from Ashes](https://archiveofourown.org/works/54305434).
Summary: After the Department of Mysteries, Sirius fell into the Veil and survived the fall but and got exonerated but he is plagued with nightmares, has unresolved grief, and a desperate need to be a good caretaker for Harry. The Order keeps fighting Voldemort and the Death Eaters and tries to get a grip after that summer, looking for Healers to join their secret organization.
Pia Pettigrew is unable to believe that Sirius Black, her late brother's former friend was set free while the Ministry is now supposedly after Peter, whom the Pettigrew siblings consider long gone. Healer Emily Pettigrew (my first OC) is blackmailed by her older sister to join the Order of the Phoenix and find out what went into Black's exoneration, to avenge their family.
What she finds out, however, is not what she expects.
Rating: T for now, but will be M eventually mainly because of language and depictions of violence and sexual situations (I have yet to find out if I can write SMUT).
Genres: Mystery, Adventure, Romance. There is also a lot of Drama in this fic.
Pairings: there are various relationships that are background, including Remadora, but Sirius / Female OCs is the central one later on.
16 chapters are up already and I update pretty often. The fic has been up for two months and I don't plan to take a year to finish it.

After sixty-seven sessions of Curse of Strahd (read all about it here), it was time for a change. So into the wild we went...
My group is nearing the end of Hither, and along the way I've written summaries of each session ("What Just Happened?"), along with interesting/funny quotes from PCs/NPCs ("Certain Things Were Said"), and a list of new characters introduced that session ("Dramatis Personae").
My intention is to write the summaries for each of the five parts of the campaign in a different format. For the Witchlight Carnival, each summary was presented in verse (my own, no machine learning shortcuts!), using the metre and rhyming structure of various Lewis Carrol poems.
I'd like to share my summaries/poems with you all here, for posterity, and in the hope you'll find them entertaining.
For reference, the players are:

• Holafina (a harengon paladin who has lost three inches of height)
• Skerrek (a kobold druid who has lost the ability to lie)
• Arix (an owlin monk who has lost all sense of direction and is always hungry)
• Jexim (a brash fairy warlock who has lost his diary)
• Sylenos (a beatnik/slacker satyr rogue employed by the Carnival)

NOTE: Lewis Carroll was known to hide secret messages in his poems. I've done the same, revealing the campaign's big twist in one of the poems below. None of my players have picked up on it.

Part I: Welcome to the Witchlight

What Just Happened? (in the style of Jabberwocky)
’Twas twilight when the carnival Did open wide two golden gates, And those with tickets did arrive, Seeking things they had misplaced.
One harengon of curious size, A kobold with a slithy gait, An owlet who possessed two eyes As wide as Annam’s dinner plates.
Yet are we three or are we four? Let’s add vibrations rarefied: A Witchlight hand here to ensure That every guest is Satyrs-fied!
Enter now and taste the sounds, Feel these colours, smell those sights! Kaleidoscopic fun abounds This synaesthesiac’s delight!
Yet where’s the drama? Where’s the tension? Certainly we’ve had a switch (At least in here there is no mention Of that cad von Zarovich).
Instead let’s race a giant snail, Eat candied mushrooms by the pound, Or listen to a gnome assail The tightness of your mother’s gown.
Yet hark! A misadventure glum! Those not heroes please give berth! The best laid plans of love undone By Tasha’s wild unruly mirth
These mirrored halls! This desperate task, To find a luckless paramour A sweet-toothed lass with porcine mask That you could swear you’ve seen before…
’Twas twilight when the carnival Did open wide two golden gates And those with tickets did arrive, Now guided by the wiles of fate.
Dramatis Personae
Arix Specklefoot, a sweet-toothed owlin Holafina, a curiously short harengon Skerrek Tirael, a slithy kobold Sylenos, a cosmic satyr Nicholas Midnight, elderly goblin ticketmaster at the Witchlight Carnival Candlefoot, a mime and not by choice Rubin Sugarwood, a lovesick halfling Ween Sundapple, his laugh-sick paramour Glorange Turple, a poetry gnome
Certain Things Were Said
“I am worried about your ability to sense vibrations that I cannot.” - Skerrek Tirael
“Tymore, goddess of good fortune! Look well upon Shellymoo this day!” - Holafina
“Hate to say it, man, but that gnome really insulted your mother.” - Sylenos
“Snacks?” - Arix Specklefoot

Part II: Lost and Found

What Just Happened? (In the style of The Walrus and the Carpenter )
"The time has come," the Satyr said, "To talk of many things: Of poems—and props—and Jeremy Plum— Of crowns and pixie kings— And why things here keep getting lost— And what this pig-girl means."
"But wait a bit," the Owlin cried, "Before our minds do meet, For some of us are pretty spooked, And I would like a treat!" "No hurry!" said the Satyr, And kicked up cloven feet.
The Owlin and the Kobold Were walking close at hand, They smiled like anything to see The gates of Pixie Land. "If we could only stay a while,” They said, "it would be grand!"
The Satyr sighed so sulkily, Because he thought that Plum Had got no business to be there When all was said and done. (“It's rude of him," the Kobold said, "To try and spoil our fun!")
"Oi, Satyr," said the pixie king, "You've had a pleasant run! Should you be getting back to work?” But answer came there none And this was scarcely odd, because He had real beef with Plum.
Now Arix made a hamster friend Who offered up some clues. The others tried the riding-pug: A pleasant thing to do! (“The pug is fine," the Rabbit said, "But he’s no Shellymoo.”)
"How nice of you to come!” said Plum, "You all are oh-so kind!" Puddlemud said nothing as His teeth began to grind. The Owlin and the Kobold cheered: “That was our FAVORITE ride!”
“A wooden crown," fair Jexim said, Is what we need to come Our way along with golden paint For some un-princely sum.” The others stared, confused, and said: “Now where did YOU come from?”
‘Twas then the party dared approach The famous Mystery Mine Where psychedelic spectacles Broke the Satyr’s mind. (“I really wish,” Zephixo sighed, “You wouldn’t ride while high”).
Next Dirla pulled all kind of things Out of his wagon/portal: Bottles, bunnies, candlesticks, A shining blade of vorpal (Incidentally, there’s a word That kind of rhymes with purple).
“If you put your mind to it And searched for long enough, Do you suppose," the party said, "That you could find our stuff?" "I doubt it," said dear Dirlagraun, And gave a bitter huff.
Then he gave the Harengon The greatest gift by far: A copy of “Gnome On The Run” And bid them au revoir (Morgie would have laughed at that While trying to type slash “R”).
“I do believe,” the Satyr said, “That something is not right, And think we ought to pay a call To Messers Witch and Light.” “I think we ought,” the Owlin said “To first stop for a bite.”
But in their way old Thaco stood, A clown grown grim and surly: “Rabbit! Owlin! Pixie! Skink! You aren’t allowed to be-“ The Fairy interrupted him: “Wait, WHAT did you call me?”
Poor Thaco cried: “Things move too fast! And have since my debut In R-1: To the Aid of Falx From Nineteen Eighty Two! And if you’d seen what I have seen Then you’d smoke bubbles, too!”
Finally he stepped aside, At last the way was clear. The Satyr ambled stealthily With open eyes and ears And pressed them to a wagon large To see what he could hear.
"The time has come," Witch and Light said, "To talk of things galore Of prizes—plans—and kenku pests— and ever so much more— But first we’d better ask inside Those spying at our door!”
Dramatis Personae
Jexim, a puzzled, puzzling fairy Jeremy Plum, operator of the Pixie Kingdom and bestower of silly names Biscuit, a talkative hamster Pinecone, a riding-pug Zephixo, dwarven inventor and mastermind behind the Mystery Mine Ernest Wilde, middle-aged calliope master currently inhabiting the body of his pet monkey Marigold, his button-collecting goblin assistant Dirlagraun, a kindly but inefficient displacer beast, minder of lost children and property Thaco, a bubble-smoking clown who is long past his prime
Certain Things Were Said
"Worried I was, with talk of missing supper." - Arix Specklefoot
"Could you not just purchase a new pair?" - Skerrek Tirael "Not like this, man." - Sylenos
"If you'd see the things I've seen, you'd smoke a bubble pipe, too." - Thaco
"Is this it?" - Dirlagraun "NO." - Everyone

Part III: On the Trail of the Kenku

What Just Happened? (In the style of The Hunting of the Snark)
"Where the heck is our stuff? We just want to know This Harengon ain't getting bigger, Arix has no idea of where to go And lies send poor Skerrek a-quiver!"
"Would you get back to work?" Mister Light cried, Twirling his cane with a smile, "Otherwise find where this kenku pest hides; She's cramping this carnival's style!"
"Well, that was a bust," said our heroes, conferring, "Anyone got a suggestion? If we need to pull strings to get back our things Then there are some folk we should question."
"Time's an illusion, free will a delusion!" Sylenos' mentor decreed, "Get a contusion battling occlusions, Or relax and have some of this…wait, what was I saying?"
Sylenos proclaimed: "A genius flawed!" "A man/dragon ahead of his time." Skerrek looked at his claws; Holafina at paws, And the other two just rolled their eyes
"A centuar I'm not! I just made a bad trade The "Cloppinton's" just serendipitous, Now lend me your aid and you'll maybe persuade These horsies to drop some significance."
Then they took to the skies on a dragonfly ride (Holafina and Skerrek abreast), When you're this high there's just nowhere to hide (And to which Sylenos attests)
Now Skerrek honed on a runaway gnome Who was fleeing the carnage with glee, Holafina struck home and that's it for this poem For the gnome was the kenku, you see.
Dramatis Personae
Mister Witch, a matter-of-fact elf, devoid of pretense Mister Light, a flamboyant elf, luminous and coy Burly, a philosophical, pumpkin-helmeted bugbear Mandragon, a seeker of truth (and not much else) Diana Cloppington, a centaur who is apparently not, operator of the Carousel Northwind, a very forthcoming treant, operator of the Dragonfly Rides
Certain Things Were Said
"There’s something weird going on. For some reason everyone thinks I don’t do anything around the carnival." - Sylenos
"It's true, Miss Cloppinton! We've ALL lost things." - Arix Specklefoot
"Wait, when did we have biscuits?" - Jexim

Part IV: Through the Looking Glass

What Just Happened? (In the style of A Boat Beneath a Sunny Sky)
Now hear the Kenku’s strange reply (As Arix struggles to apply Triage to these pixie guys)
Asking questions, getting nought Set her on a different course: High sabotage without remorse!
And what has got her so irate Is what’s she trying to intimate: Zybilna has been quiet of late!
Ignore the rest, and let’s take flight To confront dear Witch and Light (Surprisingly, they’re quite contrite)
To keep the carnival in motion A tapestry of lies was woven: A deal with the Hourglass Coven!
Who take from those who can’t afford Entrance through the Witchlight’s doors Miscellanea adored
So THAT’s who taken all your junk! Time to find these Hourglass punks! Which way to this Feywild dump?
But first we’ll make a brief aside So Candlefoot can vocalise His mermaid love (now legalised)
Now the pair can tie the knot And while we’re passing time why not Ride the fabled Bubble Pot?
Yet ere you all are translocated (Everybody’s breath now bated) Arix must be coronated!
The time of truth has come at last Hesitation as you pass Though the hallowed looking glass
Are you afraid to lose your minds? What lies ahead? What lies behind? What do you expect to find?
Will Skerrek ever fabricate? Or Holafina emulate A bunny’s median height and weight?
Shall Jexim’s memoirs find acclaim? Can Monty locate Bobbitt Fane? (…hang on, that’s a different game)
Does Arix ever find the door? And will Sylenos flee the cause To study unemployment law?
Dramatis Personae
Kettlesteam, a mischievous patron of Zybilna Paleesha, a mellifluous mermaid, now reunited with Candlefoot
Certain Things Were Said
“Sylenos, perhaps in eight years you can come back and find your lost employment.” - Skerrek
“Ask me where the exit is.” - Arix Specklefoot “Where is the exit?” - Mister Light “I don’t know.” - Arix

With or without lyrics - any genre. I'm just looking for songs based on or about a classic literature story. An example would be: Kate Bush - Wuthering Heights Based on Emily Bronte's Wuthering Heights.

Unveiling the Allure of the Ghazal Form**
Summary:
A ghazal is a poetic form with Middle Eastern origins, typically composed of rhyming couplets and a repeating refrain. Each line of the poem shares a common meter, and the last word of the second line in each couplet rhymes throughout the poem.
Examples:

1. "The Beloved" by Rumi.
   
2. "Ghazal" by Agha Shahid Ali.
   
3. "The Ghazal of What Hurt" by Peter Cole.
   

Tips for Creative Writing:

• Embrace Repetition: The consistent refrain creates a melodic quality.
  
• Convey Emotional Intensity: Ghazals often explore themes of love, loss, and longing.
  
• Play with Imagery: Use vivid imagery and metaphor to enhance the emotional impact.
  

Questions for Exploration:

1. How does the repetition of the refrain contribute to the overall tone of the ghazal?
   
2. Can you think of other cultural traditions that incorporate similar poetic forms?
   

Additional Resources:

• Read the works of contemporary poets like Fatimah Asghar and Safia Elhillo for modern ghazals.
  
• Explore classical ghazals by Mirza Ghalib for insights into the traditional form.
  

Creative Writing Prompt:
Step 1: Choose a theme or emotion to explore in your ghazal.
Step 2: Craft the first rhyming couplet with a meaningful refrain.
Step 3: Continue developing the theme in subsequent couplets, maintaining the rhyme scheme.
Example:
In the night's embrace, a silent moonlight gleams (A) Lost in the echoes, the heart silently dreams (A) Whispers of love in the gentle night's streams (A) A ghazal's refrain, where longing redeems (A)

Good morning everyone, happy Monday, and welcome to another selection for our sub's weekly listening club. Each week, we'll listen to a piece recommended by the community, discuss it, learn about it, and hopefully introduce us to music we wouldn't hear otherwise :)
Last time, we listened to Howells’ Elegy for viola, string quartet, and string orchestra. You can go back to listen, read up, and discuss the work if you want to.
Our next Piece of the Week is Richard Strauss’ Death and Transfiguration (1890)
…
Score from IMSLP
https://s9.imslp.org/files/imglnks/usimg/e/e8/IMSLP18779-PMLP12213-Strauss_-_Tod_und_Verkl%C3%A4rung,_Op._24_(orch._score).pdf
…
some listening notes from Calvin Dotsey

Over the course of the 19th-century, music gained in prestige until many began to consider it the most significant of all the arts. In an age of rapid social change and scientific progress, many questioned established traditions, and art—especially music—seemed to provide spiritual sustenance in an age of doubt. It is against this cultural background that Richard Strauss (aged just 25 in 1889) completed his most ambitious tone poem yet: Tod und Verklärung (Death and Transfiguration), a work that explores the mystery of death and what might lie beyond. Though Strauss himself had adopted a decidedly secular worldview as a teenager, he brilliantly depicted the physiological and psychological states of a dying man with almost scientific precision, using the most advanced orchestrations and harmonies of his time. The piece was not based on any personal experience, but intriguingly, on his deathbed Strauss remarked that “dying is exactly as I composed it sixty years ago in Tod und Verklärung.”
Strauss provided his own summary: “[…] it occurred to me to present in the form of a tone poem the dying hours of a man who had striven towards the highest idealistic aims, maybe indeed those of an artist.”
In the slow introduction, “The sick man lies in bed, asleep, with heavy irregular breathing; friendly dreams [in the form of woodwind and violin solos] conjure a smile on the features of the deeply suffering man.” When the tempo quickens, “he wakes up; he is once more racked with horrible agonies; his limbs shake with fever” amidst an orchestral maelstrom. Suddenly, the storm breaks as a new theme resounds in the trumpet, trombones, and tuba: the first glimpse of transfiguration.
The music fades “as the attack passes and the pains leave off,” and a gentle theme from the introduction returns as he falls asleep again: “his thoughts wander through his past life; his childhood passes before him […]” A momentary attack of pain cinematically cuts to “the time of his youth with its strivings and passions”: the protagonist appears as a strapping young man with a faster, fanfare-like theme for horns and winds. Another cinematic cut from the violins leads to an unmistakable Straussian love scene, but during this passionate love-dream “the pains already begin to return,” and the music of love and suffering combine in a searing, intense passage of virtuoso complexity.
All at once, the pain falls away, and the transfiguration theme now appears in a more complete guise: “there appears to him the fruit of his life’s path, the conception, the ideal which he has sought to realize, to present artistically, but which he has not been able to complete, since it is not for man to be able to accomplish such things.” But, in order to be transfigured, he must leave this world. The pained music of the slow introduction returns as “The hour of death approaches […]” The intense music of suffering returns once more, vanishing with the stroke of a gong as “the soul leaves the body in order to find gloriously achieved in everlasting space those things which could not be fulfilled here below.”

Ways to Listen

• David Zinman and the Tonhalle-Orchester Zürich: YouTube Score Video, Spotify
  
• Andrés Orozco-Estrada and the hr-Sinfonieorchester: YouTube
  
• Mikko Franck and the Orchestre Philharmonique de Radio France: YouTube
  
• Herbert von Karajan and the Berlin Philharmonic: Spotify
  
• Mariss Jansons and the Bavarian Radio Symphony Orchestra: Spotify
  
• Manfred Honeck and the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra: Spotify
  

Discussion Prompts

• What are your favorite parts or moments in this work? What do you like about it, or what stood out to you?
  
• Do you have a favorite recording you would recommend for us? Please share a link in the comments!
  
• Have you ever performed this before? If so, when and where? What instrument do you play? And what insights do you have from learning it?
  

...
What should our club listen to next? Use the link below to find the submission form and let us know what piece of music we should feature in an upcoming week. Note: for variety's sake, please avoid choosing music by a composer who has already been featured, otherwise your choice will be given the lowest priority in the schedule
PotW Archive & Submission Link

This is /CWR's weekly recurring Off-Topic and Low-Effort CW Thread.
Post small CW threads and off-topic posts here. The rules still apply.
What belongs here? Most things that don't belong in their own text posts:

• "I saw this article, but I don't think it deserves its own thread, or I don't want to do a big summary and discussion of my own, or save it for a weekly round-up dump of my own. I just thought it was neat and wanted to share it."
  
• "This is barely CW related (or maybe not CW at all), but I think people here would be very interested to see it, and it doesn't deserve its own thread."
  
• "I want to ask the rest of you something, get your feedback, whatever. This doesn't need its own thread."
  

Please keep in mind werttrew's old guidelines for CW posts:

“Culture war” is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people change their minds regardless of the quality of opposing arguments.
Posting of a link does not necessarily indicate endorsement, nor does it necessarily indicate censure. You are encouraged to post your own links as well. Not all links are necessarily strongly “culture war” and may only be tangentially related to the culture war—I select more for how interesting a link is to me than for how incendiary it might be.
The selection of these links is unquestionably inadequate and inevitably biased. Reply with things that help give a more complete picture of the culture wars than what’s been posted.

Answers to many questions may be found here.
It has come to our attention that the app and new versions of reddit.com do not display the sidebar like old.reddit.com does. This is frankly a shame because we've been updating the sidebar with external links to interesting places such as the saidit version of the sub. The sidebar also includes this little bit of boilerplate:
Matrix room available for offsite discussion. Free element account - intro to matrix.

I have an honest question because I am baffled by it. I’ve had three intense relationships in my life that have lasted years, where the women were obessed with me. They wrote me poems, we told each other we loved each other within a month usually, and put each other before anything else.
I didn’t marry any of those people. I am now 33, been single for almost two years, and confused. I know some of these relationships weren’t the healthiest or realistic. That being said, it’s all over the place. The first obsession was in high school, she was my first love and now I view it a young love and not real love. Regardless it happened, and it lasted 4 years.
I won’t go into my other relationships but they were similar and the summary of intensity sums them up. Lots of sex, romance, etc.
Now what confuses me in modern dating is the ambivalence of people. I don’t like them and they don’t like me. They send me texts like “I’m doing tbjs if you want to come!” Meaning it wasn’t planned for me and it’s whatever. People date me, ask me out but they don’t inspire any intensity. So I talk to them once a week, sometimes forget about them and it doesn’t mean anything to me. And I don’t mean anything to them.
I also have dated dozens of other women where I don’t remember their names now and we just mutually ghosted each other. It was boring and it makes me ask, what is the middle ground? Is it passion or nothing? I don’t like dichotomous thinking. Is it slow learning of a persons interests, and does it exist?

Possible TW? But I did my best to be as mindful with my language as possible.
I’ve had a restrictive ED for about the last 20 years (I’m 33) and I’ve never let any therapist near it with a 10-foot pole. I’ve been in a LOT of MH care for other mental illnesses I won’t get into, but in all that time the ED was always off the table and I basically never talked about it to anyone IRL except other sufferers.
I tried to recover solo about a year ago. I failed miserably almost immediately and realized that I’d need professional help. But Medicaid didn’t cover it in my old state (PA).
Now I’ve moved to WA to live with a long term partner and the Medicaid here does cover it (though based on what I read they require one to be a specific percentage under their ideal body weight for them to cover residential).
So I made an intake appt with a place called The Emily Program cause they take my insurance. Everyone I talked to there so far has been really lovely. At the end of the appointment she recommended residential.
They’re in Seattle, like 4 hours away from where I live (which is in the sticks and extremely rural, aka a treatment desert). I’ve never so much as had an outpatient appointment about my ED, the closest I’ve come to treatment is being offered those terrible “milkshakes” with meals when I did psych inpatient for other issues lol, and now I’m facing down residential…
They also have a bed open right now and recommended I take it bc summer is busy and if I delayed I’d be looking at a waitlist. Partner & I discussed it and agreed so now I have a medical clearance appt on Tuesday and then a few days later I’ll probably be going in.
I have no idea what to expect and I’m extremely scared. I know going away is probably for the best bc I’m going to be distressed and I don’t want my partner having to bear the brunt of that—he’s done that enough with my other issues, dude is an angel on earth for real—but I’m still really anxious.
And of course the anxiety is making my symptoms worse… It’s like a weird combo of being afraid of not being “sick enough” when I show up (like to justify my need for treatment? Or maybe to try to secure myself as much time in treatment as possible, since I know my insurance uses a weight limit?) and also some messed up version of a last hurrah.
Anyway, the real point of this post is to just hear from others who have been through adult residential about what it’s like. Anything at all anyone is willing to share would be appreciated (whether it’s a summary of your own experience/s, advice on what to bring or expect, words of encouragement, or anything else).
Some specific questions I have are:
Has anyone else had the experience of getting worse right before entering treatment?
What are the weigh-ins like? Like what is the typical process?
And the meals?
Do they discharge you as soon as you’re weight restored, regardless of how stable you are mentally?
Are their weight goals reasonable?
How difficult is it to manage the competitive/comparative aspect of things? I’m quite afraid of showing up & being/appearing the least in-need-of-treatment of anyone there (trying my best to use accurate language rather than ED language).
I’m sorry this is so long. I’m no longer on ED social media anymore, so I don’t really have anywhere else to talk about it. I hope I used the right flair, it seemed most appropriate. Thanks in advance to anyone willing to share their thoughts.

Lifetime - Staked: 892.4u, Profit/Loss: +12.04u, ROI: 1.35%, Parlay Suggestions: 171-67 Dog of the Week: 13-16
2024 - Staked: 245.3u, Profit/Loss: -21.32u
As always, scroll down for UFC Vegas 92 Breakdowns. The following is just a recap of last event’s results.
~UFC St. Louis (PREVIOUS CARD)~
Staked: 15.75u
Profit/Loss: -15.75u
Parlay Suggestions: 3-3
I’m not really sure how to write a review of a card where you go 0-11 in bets and lose 15.75u. All I know is I’m currently going through an awful year and results have been shocking, and mentally it’s becoming quite taxing. The records are cool and all, but I’m obviously losing money here also and suffering that much of a loss just doesn’t sit well. Mentally I’ve taken a bit of a hit, I can’t lie. Thankfully I’d done most of my research for this upcoming card before UFC STL took place so it shouldn’t cloud my decision making too much. Grateful we’ve got a break week coming up, I need some time to lick my wounds after this one.
I’ll save characters and just direct you to last week’s post if you’d like to see the disasterpiece that was my betting slate for that card.

~UFC Vegas 92~
Bang average card, and even worse from a betting perspective from the looks of these money lines! Honestly I don’t even know why anyone would read this from someone who just took as many consecutive Ls as I just did, but thanks for sticking around if you did. It probably won’t be a massive slate for me here anyway.
(also all breakdowns were written before UFC STL so the self-loathing stops here)

~Edson Barboza v Lerone Murphy~
Full disclosure, all my betting life I have been very keen to fade British fighters, despite being from the UK myself. The talent pool is just objectively smaller, the lack of combat sports in our school curriculum means fighters have less overall experience and years in competition, as well as the media’s and the UFC’s infatuation with hyping up any fighter from this country overall means that fading has been a net positive investment over the years. When it comes to betting lines, the oddsmakers in this country always hang the UK fighters out at slightly shorter prices too, because obviously that’s where the money is almost always going to go. I know I always did that.
Whilst we’re talking about betting, I’ll take the opportunity to get in a quick victory lap about Edson Barboza, who I confidently bet as an underdog to Sodiq Yusuff. The reads I made in for that fight almost looked like I’d seen it before, and it was probably my best bet of 2023 from a pure analytical perspective. Good times.
Edson Barboza has managed to turn incredibly underrated in recent years, mostly due to the fact he’s old and has been mauled a few performances lately. The blueprint to beat him is very clear - you either to go balls to the wall, crowd/pressure him and finish him early, or you cardio-wrestle him for 15/25 minutes.
It sounds quite simple, but both of those lanes require quite specific skillsets. They are obviously skillsets that Khabib, Tony Ferguson, Bryce Mitchell, Kevin Lee and Gaethje possess naturally, which explains 5 of his eight losses in recent years. The losses to Dan Ige and Paul Felder were scored terribly and should have been wins for Edson…and the remaining loss was to Giga Chikadze, which is the only time I think he’s been outclassed in what could be called an “even” fight on paper. Another key thing to note is that Edson is so explosive and dangerous that he has also managed to still score wins against fighters that do fit the stylistic blueprint to be able to make life difficult for him. People like Benny Dariush, Shane Burgos and Billy Quarantillo. But he finished all three of them. Another thing to note is that the calibre of every single name mentioned is very high.
So how does Lerone Murphy measure up against these blueprints? Well right off the bat his record shows he’s capable of a KO win, but it’s not a super reliable method and isn’t particularly process driven (IE it doesn’t come from him smothering his opponent with suffocating pressure early). In fact, his finish of Ricardo Ramos came from some surprisingly effective ground and pound, and the knee against Amirkhani was a fortuitous impact, in a fight where he was expected to find the finish against a guy with the ‘1 round of resilience’ curse.
So how about the wrestling/top control route? Well as previously mentioned Murphy showed some dangerousness in the way he finished Ramos in a grappling position, and his performance against Josh Culibao also shows that it’s his best chance of beating Edson. I have been impressed with his grappling ability in the UFC so far. He’s not a pure takedown artist though, and has averaged just 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes inside the UFC. In that Culibao fight he was keen to clinch up, but took advantage of Culibao turning his back in the second. The third round was dominant for Murphy in regards to the grappling, but it all stemmed from him landing a body shot that pretty much compromised Culibao and turned him into a ragdoll for more than three minutes in the round. If all you do is look at UFCStats for that fight, then Murphy looks like Khabib…but the tape shows a very different story. He also probably should have gotten the finish there if we’re being critical!
I understand that Lerone Murphy is undefeated (although if you ask me he lost that Tukhugov debut, not that it matters), and has shown good moments from top position, but does doing that against a compromised Josh Culibao and Ricardo Ramos really justify you being the favourite against Edson Barboza? Edson’s fought the cream of the crop in the UFC since day one – his three most underwhelming results were losses to Jamie Varner, Donald Cerrone and Michael Johnson…that’s how ELITE the competition he’s faced has been. And even though he’s a bit long in the tooth he’s showing that he can still hang with guys at this level, like he did with Sodiq. Personally I think Yusuff is a more dangerous fighter for him than Lerone, who doesn’t appear to have that kind of imposing and dangerous striking style.
I think this betting line is putting so much unwarranted faith in Lerone Murphy. Yes, he could turn out to be a great prospect that enters the top 5 of the division one day, but we have not seen him show anywhere near the level of competence to be expected to beat Barboza more times than not. Stylistically, he doesn’t have anything that gives an immediate advantage against Barboza (at least nothing I could trust him to lean on for 25 minutes), the only angle there is age. Yes Barboza is getting a bit old and shopworn, but he’s still beating younger guys consistently. Also, whilst we’re talking about intangibles, Barboza is very experienced in five round fights, and the extra two rounds allow him back into the fight should his weakness towards early pressure show itself.
I’d say Edson should be around -150 here. The line available feels unsubstantiated and purely based on the age dynamic, as I have not seen anything from tape that implies Lerone Murphy is up to the task. He barely got past Gabriel Santos last year.
I had a great time betting Barboza as a dog last time, so I’m doing it again. 1u on Edson Barboza to Win at +125 or better. The line looks to be moving in Lerone’s favour at the moment so I will wait to bet this.
How I line this fight: Edson Barboza -150 (60%), Lerone Murphy +150 (40%)
Bet or pass: 1u Edson Barboza to Win (+XXX)
Prop leans: None

Khaos Williams v Carlston Harris
Pretty awful Co-Main Event. It’s a fun fight but neither man is really considered one-to-watch and they’ve barely fought once each in the last year. You telling me they couldn’t have found a better fight to go on the poster for this one?
Anyway, both men are a little bit wild on the feet, but Harris is clearly the less technical and defensively sound of the two.
Williams kind of forged his path in the UFC with KO victories, but when forced to be technical across 15 minutes he gives a decent enough account of himself (I’ve tried to fade him twice in that type of bout, against Randy Brown and Matt Semelsberger). He’s clearly going to look much better when he can find finishes, but I think I still expect him to be the more eye-catching fighter if this one is a 15 minute kickboxing affair.
But that’s the problem here…Carlston Harris’ grappling game is the strongest skillset that either man possesses, and it’s whether or not he can get it going that will likely determine who wins this one. Unfortunately, we have only seen Williams taken down twice in the UFC, both times by Michel Pereira (who isn’t even much of a wrestlegrappler himself). To make matters worse, they both came in the 14^th and 15^th minutes of the fight and we barely got to see anything, so they really are low quality examples.
I’ve been watching MMA long enough to know that a guy like Khaos Williams probably isn’t a particularly amazing grappler, but of course that’s still a huge assumption to make. With no knowledge of how Khaos is going to fare working off his back, I really do not think this fight is one that you can have any degree of confidence in. The books had initially lined it around a pick’em, which could well imply that they feel the exact same way. It’s unfortunately a pass from me, because a Williams with great TDD and process on bottom could end up being -300…but white belt Williams could look +300.
How I line this fight: Impossible to line with any confidence, so a pick’em is fine.
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

~Angela Hill v Luana Pinheiro~
After chasing it for quite some time, MMA bettors finally managed to catch the fade on Luana Pinheiro. When she entered the UFC she was discredited for her exclusively R1 finishes, with people predicting her cardio would not be up to scratch. Things got worse when she took the coward’s way to a win against Jessica Penne – seemingly blowing her gas and then milking the extent of the damage done from an illegal strike and winning by KO. As we know from the MMA community, doing stuff like that will make you one of the most hated fighters on the roster. She then moved to 2-0 with a split decision win as a favourite against Michelle Waterson…which many people think she lost. Basically, not a very impressive stint in the UFC so far.
Finally she went up against Amanda Ribas, who went on to expose that dodgy cardio of Pinheiro, melting her in the third round with a beautiful wheel kick when Pinheiro was death gassed. Now we know it’s possible, the third round of Pinheiro’s fight against Waterson-Gomez makes a bit more sense, seeing as Waterson took over and clearly won it.
Nothing kills a hype train quicker than realising that a fighter has bad cardio, and it’s safe to say that whatever hype there was on Luana (minimal) is dead…because she’s a +125 underdog to Angela Hill here.
In my opinion, Angela Hill has been an incredibly underrated fighter for such a long time and absolutely deserves her flowers as one of WMMA’s most respected journeywomen. She’s had 24 UFC fights, and she’s still showing up better than fighters much younger than her and doesn’t appear to even be slowing down.
The blueprint on Hill has been pretty clear for some time – if you want to beat her relatively easily, you take her down. Otherwise, you’re going up against technically impressive striker that has the durability, a sneaky bit of power and seemingly limitless cardio to keep you honest. Really, if you manage to have success against Angela Hill on the feet, the best thing you can really hope for is about 55% of dominance (typically where two judges score one way, and another goes the opposite).
As I often say, statistics for MMA are best used when comparing WMMA strikers, and the figures here are quite eye-opening. Hill’s strike differential is vastly superior, and their defensive rates are very close. In short, if they stay on the feet for 15 minutes I think Hill should be expected to out-volume her opponent. When you factor in Pinheiro’s cardio deficiencies, that’s even more likely.
Therefore, Pinheiro has two routes to success here in my opinion – her typical R1 finish, or by going the grappling route. Firstly, Hill has never been finished via (T)KO in 29 professional fights (most of which have come at a high level), so I think it’s fair to say she deserves trust in being able to stay safe. She’s also quite an intelligent fighter, so I assume she’s going to be aware that her success will come in the latter half of the fight.
In terms of the grappling, Pinheiro landed five takedowns in the opening round against Markos, and that’s what forced her to gas out…so I don’t really think she’s going to be comfortable enough to lean on that skillset for 15 minutes straight. Hill is defensively quite sound on the mat as well, so as long as she can avoid getting stuck in a position I think she’ll be fine.
So in short, the only skillset I think Luana Pinheiro deserves credit for at this level is her R1 explosiveness, and Angela Hill is one of the worst opponents to pit that style against. Hill’s last victory proves that, as she survived the early barrage of another R1 finisher and took over in R2/3. I think the exact same mission statement applies here, and I think Angela Hill should definitely be trusted to do that. I’d personally line Hill somewhere like -175 to -200 here, so the -137 available at the time of writing was an easy bet to make. Let’s go Angie! 2u Angela Hill to Win at -137.
How I line this fight: Angela Hill -188 (65%), Luana Pinheiro +188 (35%)
Bet or pass: 2u Angela Hill to Win (-137), 0.25u Angela Hill to Win by Decision (+125 or better)
Prop leans: Hill couldn’t finish her dinner, so the decision prop will be one to look out for.
Live Betting Leans: If Pinheiro wins R1 and goes a bit crazy in trying to find a finish, betting Hill on the stool before R2 is a good move as the cardio fall-off could be live.

~Adrian Yanez vs Vinicius Salvador~
This feels like a weird mismatch and I don’t know why it’s happening.
Adrian Yanez is a classy and technical striker that I feel has become a bit overrated. The fans love him and put him on a pedestal as some sort of elite fighter’s fighter – I get that he’s fun to watch and a good boxer, but I’d argue he’s had more underwhelming performances than good in the UFC. He got styled on by Font and Martinez, was competitive against Davey Grant and lost more minutes than he won against Randy Costa. There’s not much shame in that and I’m not trying to say Yanez is bad, but I don’t think those performances warrant him being regarded as one of the most popular unranked fighters on the roster.
He faces Vinicius Salvador, who looked like an exciting fighter from his DWCS victory, but there was always a suspicion that he would have very little to offer outside of barn burners and very early KOs. The UFC pissed away the chance for a fan-friendly prelim guy by putting him up against two of the scrappiest and most durable guys at Flyweight – Victor Altamirano and CJ Vergara. The path to victory for both men was very clear there, and they grinded out long-distance victories after Salvador had nothing to offer after five minutes.
The UFC should have instantly viewed Salvador the same as they do Trevor Peek. Someone who is hilariously flawed but scrappy and entertaining to watch nonetheless. His striking style is unorthodox and weird, which looks great when he’s the hammer but awful when he’s the nail. Against a fighter as scrappy and technical sound a boxer as Yanez, this obviously seems like a tall order.
But ironically, whilst this is the toughest opponent Salvador has faced so far in his career, it’s probably his most winnable fight too. Yanez will oblige him in providing a war for the fans, which will give Salvador his chance to land that early KO. Yanez also been pieced up twice in a row so durability could also be a bit more questionable. Yes there is a massive gap in technique and overall skill…but one clean right hand can trump all of that, and Yanez can be hit by one.
Yanez is a -350 favourite here, which is a very easy way to put that final nail in the coffin of considering betting him. Whilst I do think he probably deserves to be close to that number in terms of his overall winning probability, it really won’t take much for the tables to turn massively here, so risking -350 seems like a terrible idea.
A bet on Salvador on the return is too ugly to stomach though, because he could also get absolutely styled on. It’s an easy pass all round.
How I line this fight: Adrian Yanez -250 (71%), Vinicius Salvador +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: FDGTD very likely but doubt the price is at all playable.

~Oumar Sy v Antonio Trocoli~
We’re all jealous of Antonio Trocoli, AKA Mr Mackenzie Dern. I’ve probably got more to say about her than I do about this fight.
I’m obviously not going to do any tape for this fight, so the only thing of note from their records is that Trocoli has regional loses to Dhiego Lima (pre-UFC) and Jacob ‘Christmas’ Volkmann (post-UFC), both of which are pretty concerning losses. He also popped for steroids on DWCS, so who knows how good he actually is when he’s clean.
Sy is a terrifying specimen of a man, with a 9-0 record by KO/SUB/DEC. I suppose this is a good time to remind you that William Knight also looked like a god.
Why would you bet this fight? Just pass and take the info we get here into their next appearances.
How I line this fight: I’d have more confidence in my ability to hook up with Mackenzie Dern than my ability to accurate cap this fight.
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: Over 1.5 Mackenzie Dern sightings (-200)

~Emily Ducote v Vanessa Demopoulos~
Two very middle-of-the-road WMMA fighters that I am quite familiar with.
Demopoulos got to the dance via her grappling and submission ability, but has spent time honing her skills on the feet that she actually seems to have abandoned a grappling based approach entirely, having landed an average of 0.49 takedowns per 15 mins in her UFC/DWCS career so far. On the feet, she’s scrappy and actually does hit kind of hard, but the technique is still very much a work in progress. She makes up for the lack of finesse with pure enthusiasm and grit, and will stay in her opponent’s face and swing until the final bell. She’s also pretty durable too, having never lost by finish in 15 fights with striking that’s that sketchy.
Emily Ducote is kind of the polar opposite. She’s a dedicated striker that has decent enough grappling defence. She has little to no power in her hands, but she’s reliable to rack up decent volume and can keep it up across 15 minutes. She has landed 100+ significant strikes in 3 of her 4 UFC bouts, but she’s also absorbed 100+ in 3 too.
The summary of this one is that Ducote is just the cleaner striker of the two, but I think this -330 price tag is a bit ridiculous. Yes, comparing the stats makes it seem that Ducote will win easily, but Demopoulos has faced quite a few opponents that have wanted to grapple her, and her Strikes landed per minute figures are skewed as a result. Given that Ducote absorbs a similar number to what she lands, I think Demopoulos’ enthusiasm should see her land far more than she has done before. Also, Demopolous’ fight metrics are often inferior to her opponents in all of the fights she loses, so the stats do her a major disservice to how competitive she can be.
I always say that there’s a real ceiling in regards to how much you can favour a striking based WMMA fighter if they have no power or finishing ability. The judges do not score technique, so the 50+ pitter patter punches they land can easily be trumped by any instance where it looks like they get hurt on the return, so in this instance I think Vanessa’s power and forward pressure could be enough to make rounds closer than the odds suggest they should be.
In short, Ducote price is nuts but she should probably win so definitely deserves to be favoured. I wouldn’t bet anything here other than FGTD, which could be a decent parlay piece anywhere less than -400. I’d be interested to see what Ducote by Decision looks like because I do rate Demopolous’ durability and see it going the distance quite frequently…so +100 or better would get my money.
How I line this fight: Emily Ducote -250 (71%), Vanessa Demopoulos +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: 1u Emily Ducote to Win by Decision (+100 or better)
Prop leans: See above

~Ramiz Brahimaj v Themba Gorimbo~
Stylistically this is a very funny fight, because it’s between two guys whose strengths and weaknesses are exactly the same. They’re both aggressive grapplers with average to bad striking, and they’ll hunt for the finish from the opening bell…and fall off a cliff at the halfway point if they can’t find it.
Themba Gorimbo is unfortunately completely unbettable at this stage in his career, I think. He’s obviously got this narrative with The Rock going on, and it’s somehow managed to turn him from a sub-par, barely UFC quality fighter that can’t beat AJ Fletcher, to someone whose fame actually manages to transcend MMA a little bit. Just goes to show how important those post-fight interviews can be! That popularity obviously swells his betting line as he’s likely to garner more money and attention from bettors, whereas Brahimaj is a nobody unless you’re a hardcore with a good memory. Couple that with the fact Themba’s style is not sustainable across 15 minutes, and you’ve got a fighter with a very limited path to victory that you can rely on, who comes with an eye-watering price tag.
Whilst Brahimaj’s betting line would lean towards the value side due to Thema’s popularity, this is the first time we have seen him compete in over two years. He was a fighter that came in during COVID times, and immediately got thrown into the deep end when matchmaking was difficult. I bet Max Griffin against him due to Max’s durability (IE my bet was ‘Max to survive and turn the tables’), and it resulted in Griffin slicing Ramiz’s ear in half with an elbow (one of the more gruesome moments we have ever seen in the cage). Ramiz managed to hit is PTV against Micheal Gillmore (the runt of the litter in a season of TUF who had no right competing in the UFC. The only interesting thing about him was that his parents couldn’t even spell his own name ), as well as Sasha Palatnikov. When facing a veteran grappler like Court McGee, I also won a bet backing the experience and durability of a guy like Court (which is ironic given I’ve bet on Court to be KO’d in his last two).
So basically, my summary here is that Thembo deserves to be favoured simply by being more proven and in the better recent form. He’s got good enough grappling all round to be able to stop Ramiz from being so dominant as a round one buzzsaw, and unless Brahimaj has made some major changes in the two years off, Themba’s probably got the slightly superior cardio (by a bit) and therefore should still be around once his opponent fades.
The -275 betting line is absurd though, as I mentioned earlier, because there’s a likelihood that Themba gasses out himself too, and it could easily be Brahimaj that’s fresher in the latter stages, should we get there. Therefore, it’s a very easy pass. I will take a look at the round props as there could potentially be an angle on some sort of combination, but we will see.
How I line this fight: Themba Gorimbo -200 (67%), Ramiz Brahimaj +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: Fight to End in Rounds 2 or 3 (price dependent), or something like that
Prop leans: See above

~Tom Nolan v Victor Martinez~
I’m bored of saying it, but Jesus Christ the calibre of a ‘UFC Fighter’ is just so low these days. Tom Nolan just got knocked out in 63 seconds as a -350 favourite to Nikolas Motta (shoutout to me for sort of predicting that), and Victor Martinez’s UFC debut saw him get knocked out cold by JORDAN LEAVITT.
So what do you do, bet at -350 on an unproven fighter who shat the bed at the exact same price tag last time? Or trust a guy who got put to sleep by the hands of Jordan Leavitt?
Obviously, you pass. If I see a single parlay screenshot with Nolan in it this weekend I will lose all hope.
How I line this fight: I like my chances of pulling Mackenzie Dern for a second time, more than I like my chances of lining this fight accurately.
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: See above

~Abus Magomedov v Warlley Alves~
Abus Magomedov needs to fire his manager. He started off his UFC career with a highlight reel KO inside 20 seconds, and had the world at his feet. Then he gets a main event spot against Sean Strickland. Fair enough taking an opportunity, but trying to speed run the rankings is a terrible idea when you consider all they want to do these days is play monopoly and generate stars. It’s much better to KO bums in the prelims and get paid a 50k bonus a few times than do what he did against Strickland…because look who he got for his third fight after losing in embarrassing fashion - Caio Borralho, who is lowkey one of the best prospects in the UFC at the moment in my opinion. Abus basically went from prospect to fodder when he lost to Strickland, and I wouldn’t expect him to stick around in the UFC for too much longer if he doesn’t start delivering early KOs again.
He should be able to get the better of Warlley Alves though. Alves looks hella old and shopworn, despite only being 33 years old somehow. He has ridden the coattails of having a win against Colby Covington on his record for his entire career, because he’s done nothing remarkable with it since. His loss to James Krause was the fight where it was apparent Alves was on the decline, and a ‘loser leaves town’ win against the equally old and frail Sergio Moraes was the only thing keeping him afloat. He scored a shock upset KO via body kicks against Mounir Lazzez (who turned out to be a bit of a fraud anyway), but the writing has been on the wall for Warlley for some time. Fast forward a few years and he's on a threefight losing streak again, having been beaten down pretty badly and finished in under 1.5 rounds in four of his last five losses.
That’s a key piece of info for this one, because we know Abus’ limitations revolve around him being a great early fighter with terrible and unsustainable levels of cardio. When looking at Abus’ fights, you need to decipher the chances of him winning early, and that will explain the rest.
Given Alves’ frailty, I think this is a pretty generous fight for Magomedov – possibly the most appropriate and tailor-made matchup they could have found for him!
His winning probability relies heavily on doing work early, so naturally betting Abus R1/2 KO would be the obvious go to. I’m not sure there will be any value on that prop though, because it’s a pretty obvious angle that everyone’s going to try and take. However, I’ve long known that Bet365’s Bet Builder product is broken when combining Winner + Total Rounds, especially before they release the rest of the props as it’s completely out of context…so Backing Abus to Win and Under 1.5 Rounds at the right time could produce a valuable price before it gets corrected. That’s all I’ll be looking to play for this fight, assuming those early Abus props are rubbish. Be careful what price is available if you’re considering this, it’s going to be much shorter than normal and it’s a very limited window to be betting on.
How I line this fight: Abus Magomedov -250 (71%), Warlley Alves +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: Abus Magomedov to Win & Under 1.5 Rounds (+125 or better)
Prop leans: See Above
Live Betting Leans: I’d take a look at Alves on the stool after R1, but I don’t think I could trust him really.

~Piera Rodriguez v Ariane Carnelossi~
Ariane Carnelossi returns after two years on the sidelines. I’ve always jokingly been a fan of her, because that fight against Na Liang (the first UFC Fight back with fans after COVID) was genuinely one of the highlights of 2021 and it was such a fun fight with a crazy energy. Also helps that I bet her heavily in that.
Carnelossi’s a decent striker that actually hung with Angela Hill back in the day, but her wrestling defence is a clear weak point. She got absolutely ragdolled in one of the best UFC performances I can remember when she faced Loopy Godinez, and even Na Liang had some success in that opening round. She’s not a fish off her back or anything, but if you can’t defend takedowns and your opponent has the cardio and ability to chain takedowns together…you’re going to struggle.
Piera Rodriguez is a pretty well-rounded fighter, she’s decent enough in the striking realm and has a diverse arsenal with kicks and a whole lot of feints, but she’s also a decent enough grappler that can commit to that multiple takedown approach. She’s landed three or more in each of her UFC/DWCS victories and just generally does a good job of showcasing herself to be a well-rounded mixed martial artist. My biggest criticism of her is that she does look to have slight signs of bad cardio, as her third rounds against both Hughes and Hansen were a bit laboured and slow.
So initially this fight was lined as a clear pick’em, which I didn’t agree with at all. Whilst Carnelossi should be able to show some competitiveness, her inability to defend takedowns should see her on the back foot for a fair bit of this fight, and her desire to land the knockout with every punch she throws could even see her lose moments on the feet to Piera’s kicking game and more technical style. Carnelossi does have a bit of a cardio advantage though, which Piera will have to navigate, but other than that I think the Venezuelan should be given the nod as a moderate favourite, probably around -175. Considering I got Piera at -120, I thought that was worthy of a 2u bet. If the line continues to move though, I may arb out as I think -175 is a very fair number.
How I line this fight: Piera Rodriguez -175 (64%), Ariane Carnelossi +175 (36%)
Bet or pass: 2u Piera Rodriguez to Win (-120)
Prop leans: Probably a decision win for Piera, Carnelossi is dedicated and Piera not much of a finisher.

~Alatengheili v Kleydson Rodrigues~
I write the same synopsis for Alatengheili because the guy never changes. Here’s a paragraph from his last fight that I wrote:
Alatengheili is one of the most frustrating talents I’ve seen in MMA in recent years. He was once the number three freestyle wrestler in China and looks to actually have a really promising wrestling game…but he just doesn’t fight like it! In his UFC debut, he faced a clearly superior striker and waited until round 3 to start shooting religiously (no attempts in R1 or 2, 7 attempts in R3). After that, he did exactly the same again in a split decision win against Ryan Benoit (1 TD attempt in R1, none in R2, and 12 in R3). He then faced Casey Kenny, who is a great defensive grappler…and decided not to attempt a takedown. Then he faced Gustavo Lopez, who took HIM down three times from eight attempts, and none from Alatenheili. He went on to beat Kevin Croom in under a minute on the feet, then went back to his regular style of waiting until R3 for takedowns when he beat Chad Anheliger. In the Gutierrez fight that followed, he attempted four takedowns and landed two. These all came in – you guessed it- round three.
So I think it’s fair to assume that we can’t call Alatengheili much of a wrestler anymore. When he’s striking on the feet, he’s clearly got some power in a big wind up shot, but other than that it’s quite flat footed and low volume stuff. Those aren’t particularly good qualities, as he’s hardly demonstrating a clear killer instinct that makes up for bad minute winning fundamentals.
Kleydson Rodrigues is a guy I was quite excited about when he got to the UFC. He looked great on DWCS, but immediately had a tough test against CJ Vergara in his debut. I do personally think he won that fight, but CJ’s pace, pressure and tenacity got the better of him down the stretch and made that fight close. He returned and obliterated Shannon Ross, before being steamrolled on the mat by Farid Basharat. A real mixed bag of results, overall.
The thing is, I don’t exactly think that the losses Rodrigues suffered are directly relevant here, as Farid’s topside grappling is way way better than Alateng’s. The Mongolian also doesn’t have the forward pressure or pace of CJ Vergara, due to how flat footed he is.
On the flipside, Alatengheili has struggled against fighters who technically outclass him on the feet, or those with good takedown defence. The Mongolian has proven to be a tough fighter to put away, which should give him a chance to take over at the midway point.
Comparatively, I think Kleydson Rodrigues has shown himself to be a higher calibre striker than Alatenheili, and clearly the more diverse one. Kleydson also throws a lot of low kicks, which are a key weapon when trying to nullify the grappling threat of the already flat footed power puncher.
In conclusion, I just think Kleydson Rodrigues outclasses Alatengheili in the striking, whereas I don’t think the Mongolian outclasses him anywhere on the return. The Mongolian has proven he is keen to stay on the feet for the majority of fights, which should leave the door wide open for Kleydson to win minutes. The cardio advantage does lie with Alateng, but I don’t think he pushes enough of a pace in the grappling or striking department to make Kleydson fade like he did against CJ (who is one of the more suffocating guys in the division). Also, Alateng’s grappling threat in R3 may well be nullified by the 10 minutes of leg kick investment that Kleydson has already made.
So as you can probably tell, I favour Kleydson Rodrigues in this one. I personally thought he should be a -200 favourite, so I was expecting to pass on this one…but it looks like the BetOnline moneyline is moving towards -150. For some strange reason the fight is barely available in the UK for now, but I’m hoping that -150 would be available for me to bet for 2u.
How I line this fight: Kleydson Rodrigues -200 (67%), Alatengheili +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: 2u Kleydson Rodrigues to Win (-160 or better)
Prop leans: None
Live Betting Leans: If it’s 1-1 going into the third and there’s been a pace…I’d recommend betting Alatengheili.

~Tamires Vidal v Melissa Gatto~
Melissa Gatto is a competent and well-rounded fighter. She went to competitive decisions with Tracey Cortez and Ariane Lipski. She is UFC quality.
Tamires Vidal is a plodding fighter that doesn’t appear to be very good at defensive grappling. She went to a competitive decision against Montserrat Rendon. She is not UFC quality.
Gatto is -400. It’s a very steep price to pay but I don’t think it’s too far off where it ought to be – she should be able to point strike on the feet and have very decent grappling success, where she can definitely fish for a submisison. I’d be interested in seeing what the price on Gatto by Submission is though, so I may be looking to play that.
How I line this fight: Tamires Vidal +300 (25%), Melissa Gatto -300 (75%)
Bet or pass: Xu Melissa Gatto to Win by Submission (+300 or better)
Prop leans: See above

Bets (Bold = been placed)
2u Edson Barboza to Win (+130)
2u Angela Hill to Win (-137)
2u Piera Rodriguez to Win (-120)
2u Kleydson Rodrigues to Win (-150)
Xu Emily Ducote to Win by Decision (+100 or better)
2u Abus Magomedov to Win & Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Xu Melissa Gatto to Win by Submmission (+300 or better)
0.25u Parlay Pieces (+699)
Parlay Pieces: Angela Hill, Emily Ducote, Abus Magomedov, Kleydson Rodgriguez, Melissa Gatto
Dog of the Week: Edson Barboza

EP: Hope Is the Thing With Feathers Honkai: Star Rail (youtube.com)
“Hope” is the thing with feathers - That perches in the soul - And sings the tune without the words - And never stops - at all - And sweetest - in the Gale - is heard - And sore must be the storm - That could abash the little Bird That kept so many warm - I’ve heard it in the chillest land - And on the strangest Sea - Yet - never - in Extremity, It asked a crumb - of me.

• Emily Dickinson

They put the first three lines from the poem in the video description, but thought it was worth putting the rest for everyone.

Show bible - The children’s deadly escape room.
As many children are kidnapped in a science museum from a 'failed' experiment, they don’t know where they are. All they know is that they were at a birthday party then they were dragged through a portal.
This story takes place in multiple episodes around the world. Some rooms take one child back in time to a horrible place.This place has a sinister,creepy but joke-like environment. At some places there may be dark humour,mainly near-death moments.
The theme is a dangerous environment and quick mental solving as it is a deadly escape room.
A few main characters are:
Heather Colldun - She is a joyful but smart person. She is a true asset to the team. She wears a purple top and a blue skirt. She likes big problems.
Aledime Slayer - A mean and sarcastic girl. Not everyone likes her. Her only friend is Violet Westre. She wears a green top with black trousers. She likes bullying.
Violet Westre - The actual leader of the escape rooms. A shy but very logical girl. A good liar. She wears a turquoise shirt and yellow skirt. She likes poems.
Lucas Tredness - A sports person. He comes in handy when a long run is needed. He wears a red tracksuit. He likes sports.
Lucy Extrel - A character with cancer who has daily medicine provided by the escape room who is friends with every kind person. She likes to wear a wig but everyone accepts her for not having hair. She wears a Green top with a lilac skirt. She likes art.
Season 1
The children (30 or 31) don’t know where they are. They have multiple of the same clothes to wear everyday they stay in the escape rooms. They are well-fed and have bunk beds to sleep on. The escape rooms have an uneasy feel to them. The children feel like they’re being watched (by the viewer) but the children don’t know they’re being watched.
Episode summary
Ep.1 Jump It!
The first episode/challenge of the show. The children are unsuspecting that it is dangerous until one kid dies by drowning. The children soon realise that it is truly serious. The escape room consists of a tube underwater that has a 5-number lock on it. Violet was the key for the escape this time.
Ep.2 Dangerous Dodgeball
In this episode some is revealed. Where is it set? How do they get their infinite food? This episode is set in a giant glass hall where the remaining kids play dodgeball. One character breaks the rules and finds a hidden room. This shows that it is set everywhere on the globe and the food supply is infinite.
Ep.3 Footie Football
In this episode, the kids play a game of murderous football where if the children cheat, they die. Creating a fair game of football. The losing team dies. Half of the children who are dead get replaced by sleeping children.
Ep.4 Malicious Mazes
Red - Instant death Yellow - 1 question
Purple - 2 questions Green - safe
Once a red tile is touched (or killed someone) then it is inactive so it can only kill one person. They can only move left, back, forward and right. It takes a long time to complete. Each question is a multiple choice.
Ep.5 Realistic Rodeo
In this episode, all the remaining and alive kids come to real life and face a problem in a school. It takes place at night at a high school where security guards will shoot anyone on sight, it is possible to lose them but it takes a while.
Ep.7 Assastionation Allowance
In this episode, the remaining children have to kill a target
For example: Violet Westre has a target on Aledime Slayer meanwhile Aledime has a target on Violet Westre. At this point only a few kids remain. The children seem to have had a target on their friends.
Possibly more. I'm not sure about more ideas.
The final episode - Freedom Fighters
In this episode the kids find the leader's base and battle's Violet and her guards. The episode ends with one of the kids getting out of a guard outfit and stabbing Violet with a dart from a dartboard from one of the rooms.
For example, it could be like:
Violet: Ha! I still HAVE a guard.
Heather: Don't be too sure, Violet Westre.
Violet: What do you mean? I have control of all the rules.
New shy kid: Well today, The rules are DIFFERENT!
He Stabs Violet.
Violet: Gah! Fine! I'll tell you about the room's origins! Okay? You *CENSOR*. So, there was one reason these exist. I made it... ah... to strengthen your abilities...
Heather: You killed SO many people!

“The universe without him in it didn’t make any sense at all. He’d taken risks; he’d seen other people die. Even people he loved. Now, for the first time, his own death was a real thing”
Welcome everyone to the fourth check in for Leviathan Wakes by James S.A. Corey. We continue with the story of Holden and his crew, joined by Miller, the detective as they begin to pull at the threads of the mystery they find themselves wrapped up in. In this fourth discussion, we will be discussing Chapter 25 through Chapter 33.
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Schedule
Marginalia
Hope you all Enjoy the discussion! Feel free to respond to any or all of the discussion questions below. Looking forward to discussing these chapters with you all!
Read on!

• Rogue

Chapter Summaries:
Chapter Twenty Five: Holden - They leave the scene of the crime. Out of Miller’s earshot, Naomi tells Holden that Miller knew the dead woman. She could see his shock at Julie’s condition. Miller wants to know how Holden knew someone from the Scopuli would be in that room. Holden wants to know how Miller knew the missing girl case was connected to something bigger. They both give half answers. Neither knows who the gunmen were or why they attacked, but Miller says it was a botched operation. Alex wonders why no one is talking about the condition of the corpse in the room. Miller confesses that he didn’t actually know Julie. The investigation gave him a picture of her: She was a good kid, a good racer. He wanted to get her back alive.
He guesses at Julie’s password (“Razorback”), which allows Naomi to access her terminal, which Naomi manipulates through a sealed plastic bag to reduce risk of contamination. Naomi opens a notes file that contains Julie’s account of catching the “Phoebe bug.” Julie referred to the “brown stuff” and described her symptoms, which included fever. She observed that the thing feeds on radiation and is anaerobic—meaning it does not require oxygen. Julie recorded the notes as she traveled to Eros, then contacted Fred Johnson. The group has no clue what caused all the tubes and spurs to sprout on Julie. The Roci crew decides to follow up on coordinates found in Julie’s notes for answers. They think she may have hidden a ship and want to check it out. Miller wants to go with them to find out who killed Julie.
Chapter Twenty Six: Miller - Their ship, The Roci, is in lockdown, unable to leave Eros, which angers Holden. Miller explains Sematimba wants them where he can find them. Miller makes a case for leaving with them but Holden is unsure he can trust Miller. Fred Johnston sends a message to the crew of the Roci: a spy has been caught and revealed danger on Eros. They conclude that someone wants to use Julie’s body as biological warfare. Eros seems an unlikely target and the crew wonders where Julie’s body was meant to go.
Eros is put in emergency lockdown, due to risk of radiation exposure. Everyone is ordered to the casino level. Radiation shelter space is limited but the crew is heading for the Roci anyway. Miller sees a security guard with scars and markings he recognizes as well as stolen riot gear from Star Helix. He’s a thug Miller once arrested and his presence speaks to a bigger picture: a coordinated attack. He warns Holden not to board his ship yet.
Chapter 27: Holden - Miller explains about the fake cops who are thugs that vanished from Ceres. He thinks they’re using the emergency to put everyone in lockup. They hide from the crowd going into shelter and make for the docks. Holden convinces Miller to check out what the thugs are up to and tells Naomi to take off without them if they’re not back in three hours. Following the guards, they see the people being put into the radiation shelter. All the guards leave except one. They ask to join the group inside. When the guard refuses, Miller puts a gun to his head. The guard lets him in. The shelter is dark inside and people are lying there, seemingly dead. The guard steps in and falls over, while Miller and Holden cough and stumble. They’ve been exposed to lethal radiation. They have six hours to get to the Roci’s med bay or they’ll die. They realize the ‘Phoebe bug” that infected Julie feeds on radiation and the people sent to the radiation shelters were likely sent there to be infected and used as incubators.
Chapter Twenty Eight: Miller - Holden and Miller have two hours to get to the Roci before Naomi and the others leave. Armored guards are keeping people away so Holden and Miller head for the maintenance tunnels. In the tunnels, they encounter a few guards, killing one and questioning the other, who Miller recognizes as a criminal from Ceres. The guy reveals he’s working for Protogen, a private Earth company based on Luna and led by Julie’s father. Miller shoots the guard and plans to use the body to rush past security, taking the guard for medical attention. As they carry the corpse, Miller reflects on when he lost his humanity. It’s been a cumulative process, starting with his first kill. He sees Julie as a symbol of the humanity he craves, which he could have had if he made different choices. They arrive at the hideout a few minutes past the deadline. No one is there.
Chapter Twenty Nine: Holden - Holden didn’t actually think they’d leave without him and realizes he is going to die from his own order. Miller suggests they head for the ship, though Holden doubts the ship will still be there. On the way, seeing a fake guard shoot a kid, leading Holden to empty his gun on the guard, but it doesn’t kill him. The guard aims at Holden but Miller kills him. They arrive at the port but mercenary cops with machine guns are blocking the way.
Chapter Thirty: Miller - Miller reflects on his two minds: his cop self, planning the next move and his ‘death self’. The name comes from a poem he once read. Holden wonders why someone would orchestrate such an elaborate deadly scheme. Miller says Protogen doesn’t know what the bug that infected Julie will do. He believes Eros is one big experiment and the scientists are observing the results. Suddenly, a horde of infected appear, moving like zombies, vomiting brown goo. Doors are opening all over the station and more zombies are pouring in. A riot cop starts shooting the zombies, their wounds ooze brown stuff. Miller gets an idea. They could follow the cops from behind as they fall back to escape the zombies. Time is short as Holden and Miller are in bad shape from the radiation poisoning as they follow the mercenaries.
Chapter Thirty One: Holden - Holden is ready to collapse so Miller drags him along as they make their way along the outer levels of the station. The guards are arguing as infected men approach. Miller is reluctant to shoot another person without Holden’s permission. Holden and Miller are trapped between the infected and the heavily armed guard, one faction looking professional and the other look like thugs from Ceres. The factions trade shots, bodies fall and the fighting continues down the corridor toward the ship. Four thugs approach. Miller gets Holden’s permission before he starts shooting. They take the guards armor and helmets and make a run for it. Progress is slow due to radiation poisoning and shots they're taking. They limp to the elevator which will take them to the Roci. The lift arrives and Amos is there holding an assault rifle in each hand.
Chapter Thirty Two: Miller - Miller wakes from dreaming, with something sticking out of his neck. Naomi is there and comments that its good their sick bay is well stocked. Miller passes out and wakes again. He sees Holden who looks terrible and falls unconscious again. Sometime later, while half-awake, he hears Holden tell Naomi that he loves her. Naomi admits that she fell for him more than four years earlier, but he only got interested in her when she was the only woman available. She knows his pattern—she’s seen it repeatedly—and a brief fling is not good enough for her.
Miller coughs and sits up. Naomi says both men died several times, but the ship’s medical resources saved them. They’re both going to have to be checked for cancer every month for the rest of their lives. They’ve had various parts removed; Holden’s thyroid was replaced with an implant, and Miller lost more than a foot of his small bowel. They’re probably sterile now, too, but otherwise they’re in good shape. Eros, however, is dead. There were 1.5 million people on the station. Miller and Holden discuss their escape and the men they killed along the way. Holden says he’s fine with it, but Miller doesn’t believe it. He says it’s good that Holden’s haunted by it and that the feeling won’t go away—so long as he still has a soul. He also tells Holden not to let Naomi put him off. In Miller’s imagination, Julie tells him she loves him too, and she’ll take care of him.
Chapter Thirty Three: Holden - Holden and Miller spend five days in the sick bay. Assorted explanations for the death of Eros are circulating, some political, some not. The Roci is heading for Julie’s asteroid. There’s distance between Naomi and Holden, who regrets his ill-timed romantic gesture. He gets up and finds he can walk. He heads to the ops deck, where Naomi is at a computer station. Holden starts to speak, wanting to have a personal conversation, but Naomi hits a button, and Fred Johnson’s face appears. Fred says they haven’t been able to get anything out of the data from the Donnager. Kelly died for that data, Holden recalls. He wonders if it’s showing Mars who killed the Donnager by revealing the enemy ship’s drive signature.
Miller joins them, and Holden asks him to solve a mystery: If he knew who killed someone, why would he send his partner the clues instead of just naming him? Miller says in case he’s wrong. He would want his partner to examine the clues and reach his own conclusion. Naomi thinks Earth is behind the whole thing. Holden wants to make another general broadcast to share the information they have, but Miller stops him, lest Holden make the largest war of all time—which he started—even bigger. Whoever did all this made it look like Mars killed the Cant, but it didn’t. They made it look like the OPA killed the Donnager—but it didn’t. Now Holden is going to drag Earth into it when he doesn’t know for sure. Holden sees it differently: He’s just releasing data, just exposing the secrets that will enable someone to find the answers.
They reach Julie’s asteroid and, sure enough, there’s a ship tethered there: the Anubis.

Contest summary from Winning Writers:
Forced Migration and the Arts is a global network of artists, academics, and activists focused on supporting refugees. In collaboration with the UK-based publisher CivicLeicester, they are seeking submissions of English-language poetry (40 lines maximum) and flash fiction (100 words maximum) for an anthology on the theme of African migration. Writers from anywhere in the world should send 1-3 pieces (across all genres) by email by 12 noon on Saturday, 25 May 2024, Africa Day. See guidelines for more information on the theme.
Contest details

• Sponsor: Forced Migration and the Arts
• Category: Poetry, flash fiction
• Submission length: Poetry up to 40 lines, flash fiction up to 100 words
• Entry fee: No fee
• Awards: Publication

Guidelines and submission information (organization's contest page)
This contest has been vetted and approved by Winning Writers

Unlocking the Beauty of Terza Rima**
Summary:
Terza rima is a poetic form originating from Italy, traditionally associated with Dante Alighieri's "Divine Comedy." It consists of tercets (three-line stanzas) linked by a rhyme scheme (ABA, BCB, CDC, and so on), with the final stanza often a rhymed couplet.
Examples:

1. Classical: "The Divine Comedy" by Dante Alighieri.
   
2. Modern: "Acquainted with the Night" by Robert Frost.
   
3. Modern: "Ode to the West Wind" by Percy Bysshe Shelley.
   

Tips for Creative Writing:

• Embrace Unity: The interconnected rhyme scheme adds coherence to the poem.
  
• Explore Themes: Terza rima lends itself well to exploring complex themes or narratives.
  
• Rhyme Creatively: Experiment with word choices to create a harmonious and rhythmic flow.
  

Questions for Exploration:

1. How does the interlocking rhyme scheme contribute to the poem's overall structure?
   
2. Can you identify any modern poems or songs that use terza rima?
   

Additional Resources:

• Read more of Dante Alighieri's work, particularly "Purgatorio" and "Paradiso."
  
• Explore T.S. Eliot's "The Waste Land" to see a modernist take on terza rima.
  

Creative Writing Prompt:
Step 1: Choose a theme or emotion to explore.
Step 2: Craft the first tercet (ABA).
Step 3: Build on the narrative or emotion in the next tercet (BCB).
Step 4: Continue the pattern, leading to a concluding rhymed couplet.
Example: In the twilight's embrace, whispers linger (A), Reflecting shadows dance, a silent figure (B). Beneath the moon's glow, memories trigger (A).
Remember: Terza rima offers a structured canvas for poetic exploration and narrative development.

Mastering the Repetitive Beauty of the Triolet**
Summary:
A triolet is a short poetic form with eight lines, typically characterized by a specific rhyme scheme and repeated lines. The first, fourth, and seventh lines are the same, as are the second and eighth lines. This creates a rhythmic and melodic pattern within the poem.
Examples:

1. "A Triolet" by Christina Rossetti.
   
2. "Triolet on a Line Apocryphally Attributed to Martin Luther" by A. E. Stallings.
   
3. "Triolet" by Robert Bridges.
   

Tips for Creative Writing:

• Choose a Captivating Refrain: Craft a refrain that can be interpreted in multiple ways.
  
• Explore Emotional Layers: Use repetition to emphasize different emotions with each iteration.
  
• Mind the Syllabic Count: Maintain a consistent syllabic count for each line.
  

Questions for Exploration:

1. How does the repetition of lines contribute to the triolet's impact?
   
2. Can you think of everyday situations or emotions that could be beautifully expressed through a triolet?
   

Additional Resources:

• Explore triolets by French poets from the 17th century for historical context.
  
• Read contemporary poets like Mary Jo Bang for innovative approaches to the triolet form.
  

Creative Writing Prompt:
Step 1: Choose a theme or emotion for your triolet.
Step 2: Craft a captivating refrain that encapsulates the essence of your chosen theme.
Step 3: Develop the narrative or emotion within the remaining lines, incorporating the refrain.
Example: In twilight's embrace, shadows softly fall (A) In twilight's embrace, shadows softly fall (A) A dance of darkness, a poetic sprawl (B) In twilight's embrace, shadows softly fall (A)
Remember: The triolet's concise structure offers a canvas for exploring depth within brevity.