CREST AND COLGATE NUMEROLOGY ANALYSIS

As we all know, these two companies are known for their toothpaste products, but one of these companies are more focused on just having a lot of clientele and promo while one of the companies give you the right effect after brushing. COLGATE AND CREST BOTH HAVE 6 PERSONALITY NUMBERS WHICH IN THIS CASE SPEAKS TO THE DAILY ROUTINE OF SALES. Let's start decoding, starting with COLGATE.
Colgate comes down to a 9 destiny number, 3 soul urge number, and 6 personality number. Think of the destiny number like the overall energy. Colgate having a 9 number means that the product was likely created with the focus being more about high reach and engagement and the 3 soul urge emphasizes this because 3 energy is connectivity and social interactions. 9 as the destiny number expands and boosts this effect. This means that this is a product, but not truly intended to do what it should be doing. Maybe it will happen, or you will have to work extra long to possibly get the desired result which is either good smelling breath or white teeth.
CREST comes down to a 2 destiny number, 5 soul urge, and 6 personality number. The 2 destiny number is perfect because it shows quick effects of using the toothpaste or whatever product you are using named under Crest. Clearly, 2 is the 2nd number which shows that this translate to quick effects that you can actually notice whether it be good breath or white teeth. 2 is about the number of stability and esteem and this is the perfect number to get for a mouth product. The 5 soul urge shows how they have the natural capacity to utilize uniqueness for their products. 2 is a number that is compassionate and cooperative which is a much better energy when it comes to interpersonal products for hygiene and health.
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I have a Kroger delivery service that I pay $60 annually for. The coupons and discounts for spending over a certain amount on specific deliveries have more than made up for that initial $60. I would estimate I have received discounts of over $200 annually by using this service. I know the up front price might be steep, but I think it’s more than worth it and an option to consider for people who don’t mind buying in bulk from a store like Kroger.

Just happened to catch something on the History Channel thus morning. Prior to around the 1910's, grocery stores were much different than what we know today. The real 2 innovators were Bernard Kroger in Cincinnati OH, who is the namesake of Kroger today; and Clarence Saunders in Memphis TN, who started Piggly Wiggly.
Kroger decided to own stores and provide distribution. That's why they are a large employer in America today. But Saunders decided to patent his store designs and layouts so he could sell franchises of his Piggly Wiggly stores.
Here is the rest from wiki: In the early 1920s Saunders began construction of a pink marble mansion in Memphis. Then, in early 1923, a group of franchised outlets in New York failed. Merrill Lynch(*needs citation) and other speculators on Wall Street attempted a bear raid on the price of Piggly Wiggly stock, gambling the price would fall. With a loan of $10 million from a number of Southern bankers, plus a bit of his own money, Saunders counteracted by buying a large amount of Piggly Wiggly stock in hopes of driving up the price. He flamboyantly declared his intent in newspaper ads. Saunders bought Piggly Wiggly stock until he had orders for 196,000 of the 200,000 outstanding shares. The firm's share price went from a low of $39 in late 1922 to $124 by March 20, 1923. Pressured by the 'bears', the New York Stock Exchange declared a 'corner' existed, and gave the 'bears' five days rather than the usual 24 hours to deliver the stock Saunders had bought. The additional time meant "a flood of stock poured [in] from distant points and gave the shorts opportunity to deliver."[7]
In the words of John Brooks, "...in mid-August, with the September 1st deadline for repayment of two and a half million dollars on his loan staring him in the face and with nothing like that amount of cash either on hand or in prospect, he resigned as president of Piggly Wiggly Stores, Inc., and turned over his assets—his stock in the company, his Pink Palace, and all the rest of his property—to his creditors."[5]
The exchanges have never been about protecting the individual investors. It's always been about the bankers and bears on Wall St. And we are to believe they will self regulate with all these other agencies? They are all in on it too. Fines are just a taste for allowing crime to happen. Until people's professions and livelihoods are on the table, nothing will ever change.
I think it's time to refocus on how important and frightening the phrase "NO CELL, NO SELL" truly is to these hedgefucks. Like a said OVER 2 YEARS AGO
NOTHING BUT FORTUNES AND FREEDOMS WILL SUFFICE.
When this does finally play out, apes will give name to a new type of trader. Spartan Pirates. We do not sell until people are in jail. Hoist the colors, give no quarter, leave them nothing, but take from them everything.

Hauled six Kroger Private Selection ice creams about a week ago (this post) on an excellent BOGO 2/$4 sale at Harris Teeter. Got two more on sale price (now ended) based on the sub’s recommended flavors, as follows:

• Pistachio & Honey - light pistachio ice cream base, honey swirl, salted and roasted pistachios. Thoughts: pistachio flavor super light at first, but thankfully it builds. Honey swirl brought interest in its gooey texture; mildly sweet but not super flavorful. Whole pistachio brought a different flavor dimension due to its salted and roasted flavor; a little overpowering. Smartly layered flavors that’s more enjoyable over time, though not completely balanced. 6.5-7/10 almost too light or too roasted, but layers in surprising and pleasing ways. An interesting ice cream.
  
• Denali Extreme Moose Tracks - milk chocolate ice cream base, chocolate fudge swirl, mini fudge cups. Pretty standard milk chocolate base: present chocolate flavor but not distinctive. Chocolate swirl is present in good amount though and tasty with a bit of salted flavor. Fudge cups similar to their “chocolate chunks” in other flavors, except milk chocolate. 6.5-7/10 Slightly basic but that’s a good chocolate swirl.
  

Similar ice cream: Tillamook Mudslide is similar idea but blander and lacks mix in 5/10. Private Selection Chocolate Cheesecake has slightly more unique chocolate cheesecake base plus cookie crumble is similar, except I like its slightly fruity chocolate flavor better 7/10.
Oberweis ice cream was also on about 50% off sale at 2/$7. First time trying this brand. Apparently some plants are closing down?

• Sweet Lemon Blackberry - sweet lemon ice cream with blackberry purée swirl. The most flavorful of the three here, with a lemon cookie type taste plus fruit. Texture is a bit lacking though as it’s slightly icy like a sorbet. Purée is tasty but wanted more. 7/10.

Similar ice cream: Private Selection Blackberry Raspberry Chocolate Chunk has similar intense flavor due to raspberry puree blended throughout, but more tart. The chocolate chunk pushes to another level though. 8-8.5/10. Also try Noosa Out of this Swirl Lemon Bar gelato or Jeni’s Splendid Lemon Bar for lemon cookie taste.
What other Oberweis ice cream should I try?

This has probably been asked before and our grocery store selection has gotten better, but haven't found a perfect grocery store. Each grocery store here has pros and cons. I feel like I would like Kroger store brand products better (when I was a kid we lived in another state and went to Kroger there) than Food City store brand products though and seems like everywhere around us has Kroger but not us. Food City is OK and I like the nice new one near me, but hate most of their store brand products, prices seem just OK, and I don't understand why they don't carry more of the nicer brands for eggs, etc, most other stores carry around here like Nellie's or Vital Farms. Food Lion even has Vital Farms I think.

Is it profitable for Walmart to have this as a service to their customers or do they do it because of it's just the way retail is headed? I'm assuming that it isn't DIRECTLY profitable, but by looking at the big picture, they are potentially gaining more shoppers one way or another.
Their perks are pretty dang decent for a flat $15ish per month. Did they mark up EVERYTHING in the store over the last few years to help cushion or offset their delivery service?
A couple of examples that make me question this are:

1. In my area, it isn't uncommon at all to make PRE TIP delivery fees of $10 to $20 per batch (up to 3 orders).
   
2. They will deliver certain small orders over and over again that surely have minimal profit on involved.
   
3. They occasionally add cash incentives to them drivers, anywhere from $3-$5 each batch.
   

My ultimate guess is once they rolled out Spark, they likely padded their products with a little extra markup. Though, they are STILL either cheaper or about the same price as Kroger, Aldi, etc.
Mind you, I'm speaking about my area. I'm aware your area may be way different.

Hey y’all! We currently have a limited supply of fresh morel mushrooms for sale now! They’re a rarity and something you won’t find at Kroger or food lion.
I went as low as I could on price, $59.99 per lb. We’ve pre-weighed and bagged them and a nice handful is running about $10-20 so not too expensive. Plus if you have EBT, you can get them half off! 😎
**reminder to cook them before consuming
ETA: I probably should have mentioned this is the Roanoke Co+op located on Grandin 😅

As people continue to complain here (understandibly) about high food prices it’s worth noting they’re mostly here to stay, and much of that pressure is related to global economic forces and consolidation in the grocery business beyond much of our control. None of these forces are intractable, and I believe there will be slight reductions to come. But what we’re seeing now is closer to a new normal than some kind of magic future where prices drop down to 2021 levels across the board
1) consolidation in the food business: during the recent period of low interest rates and corporate tax breaks, food companies consolidated to the point that 4-5 control about 70 percent of the world’s agriculture and production markets. Brands like PepsiCo, Coke. Nestle, Mondelez, and Conagra produce and market the vast majority of the offerings found in US grocery stores.
2) ditto for retailers. There are essentially three major food retailers comprising the bulk of US sales - Albertsons, Kroger and Walmart, with a few stragglers (Costco). Safeway, for example, is now and Albertsons imprint
3) Due to ongoing global conflicts, insurance for global shipping vessels (like the one that just crashed) has risen to more than $1.2 M per trip unless the ships want to travel safely around the Red Sea - which still adds $$
4) Global recessions - problems with Asian and other economies cause food manufacturers to pass on costs to relatively more affluent consumers in the US
5) spikes in transportation costs driven by continued logistical challenges
6) global climate change producing marked changes in agricultural outputs. “With dozens of crops and livestock, California is the leading producer in the United States. Those products account for more than $20 billion in value, and over 13 percent of the country's entire agricultural value. In addition to commodity crops, it is also are the sole producer of specialty crops.” The recent cycle of droughts and floods has posed significant reductions in outputs
This isn’t a doomsday scenario and again some shakeout will soften markets here and there, but as Inflation rates go
2019 2.30% Expansion (2.5%) 2020 1.40% Contraction (-2.2%) 2021 7.00% Expansion (5.8%) 2022 6.50% Expansion (1.9%) 2023 3.40% Expansion (2.5%) 2024. 7.70%. (Recent +2% increase mid year)
I think a more accurate interpretation was that we were running on a lucky streak of convergence for food prices across the past 20 years….
As far as restaurants who the hell knows

As the title says, I reviewed the latest quarterly financial statements of the major grocery chains in Canada and the USA. I compiled the gross margin, which basically shows how much a company marks up their merchandise to make a profit. This isn't their net profit, BTW, just what the potential profit is if they didn't have other expenses. I also ignored membership fees and other revenue streams for a fair comparison.
Anyway, here's what I found:

• Costco: 10.8%
• Metro: 19.9%
• Krogers: 22.7% **
• Walmart: 23.3%
• Empire: 26.5%
• Albertsons: 28.0%
• Loblaws: 32.8%

In short: Loblaws really does mark up their prices more than everyone else. I'm surprised that their margin is 3x Costco's! Or the converse: it's possible to make good money with 1/3 the margin that Loblaws exacts.
** Krogers doesn't provide cost of goods sold in a pure form. They bundle other costs in, so their gross margin is actually higher once you remove those costs.
EDIT: I added Empire, which owns Safeway (Canada) and IGA, among others. They increased gross margin by 1% from last year.
EDIT2: I added Metro by request. I'm surprised they are so low. Sometimes they seem as expensive as IGA!

Company Overview
Innovative Food Holdings, Inc. (IVFH) is a food distribution company that builds itself by selling specialty foods. Such specialty foods include various types of seafood, meats, and cheeses. Innovative Food Holdings Inc. distributes to many establishments, such as restaurants, casinos, and catering companies. Innovative Food Holdings has three central locations in Mountain Top, Pennsylvania, Chicago, Illinois, and Bonita Springs, Florida, with 200K, 28K, and 5K square foot areas, respectively. Innovative Food Holdings also has an e-commerce business that sells food through its website. The two companies work in tandem to produce IVFH revenue. In March 2023, Innovative Food Holdings got a new CEO who has changed up the managers within the company. The company trades at $0.99 and has a market cap of ~50m USD. The company has 127 total employees and earned 20.1 million in revenue over the fourth quarter of 2023.
Market position: IVFH is a specialized segment in the more significant food distribution industry. Sysco (SYY) is the most critical indirect competitor for IVFH, and they have a 56.33% market weight. The following two market leaders are US Food Holding Corp. (USFD), representing 50% of Innovative Food Holdings Revenue, with an 18.11% market weight, and Performance Food Group Corp. (PFGC), a 16.67% market weight.
Shareholders: IVFH has had three major institutional shareholders, totaling about 30% of the shares. JCP Investment Management LLC, Bandera Partners LLC, and Carlson Ridge Capital LLC have held 18.10%, 7.15%, and 4.74%, respectively. 31.16% of the shareholders are comprised of insiders.
Investment Thesis
L&H Capital rates Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) as a STRONG BUY with a Target Price of $2. The following key points drive our recommendation:
Loading the Revolver – IVFH's new leadership boasts a strong alignment with shareholder value. Their significant stock options are tied to reaching performance targets, directly linking their financial rewards to the company's success. This is further emphasized by their proven track record in relevant industries (e.g., Bill Bennett's e-commerce expertise). The leadership team prioritizes the core, profitable B2B business and implements cost-cutting measures, demonstrating a commitment to maximizing shareholder returns.
Profitable Niche with Untapped Growth Potential – IVFH's core B2B business thrives in a high-margin niche market (specialty food service) compared to broadline distributors. This focus allows them to cater to chefs' needs and avoid price competition. The business operates on a scalable, asset-light model, minimizing investment needs for significant revenue growth. Management acknowledges past neglect of this core business, presenting a substantial opportunity to capture a larger market share through improved sales and marketing efforts. The Chicago branch's organic doubling in size exemplifies this untapped potential.
Streamlined Operations and Improved Financials – By divesting the unprofitable e-commerce business and its real estate, Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) is streamlining operations, eliminating debt to 0, being net cash, and unlocking significant cash flow. This allows them to focus resources on their core, profitable B2B business (specialty food service) with a clear growth path.
Industry Analysis
Food Distribution Market:
Although the food distribution industry is outside the top 20 sectors, it has risen recently. In 2023, the market size was 382 billion. It is expected to register a CAGR of 3.9%. The steady growth in this industry is beneficial, as the company can snowball. The food distribution market will steadily increase for years. North America is the largest region in the food distribution market, accounting for around 60% of the market in 2023. The largest company in this market from the US is Sysco, which is one of IVFH’s indirect competitors. They have around 56.33% of the market weight.
The reason IVFH is not a direct competitor is its niche. Broadline distributors function as one-stop shops, offering a vast selection of products from national brands to private labels. They excel at catering to high-volume buyers like large chain restaurants and grocery stores by providing competitive prices on shelf-stable goods, canned items, and frozen foods. On the other hand, specialty distributors cater to niche markets with a focused selection. They might specialize in organic, ethnic, or gourmet foods or even specific products like fresh seafood or unique cuts of meat. These distributors are ideal for upscale restaurants or stores prioritizing unique ingredients or a particular cuisine theme. While specialty distributors may have higher prices due to smaller buying volumes and potentially perishable items, they offer the advantage of selection in these categories. If you need a wide variety of everyday items at competitive prices, a broadline distributor is the way to go.
Competitive Positioning
Moat Analysis: Moderate-Moat
Supplier Relationships: IVFH emphasizes building relationships with small producers of specialty foods. They have been cultivating strong relationships with reliable sources for hard-to-find items.
Curated Selection & Expertise: Their focus on quality, uniqueness, and navigating the fragmented specialty food distribution industry paired with food regulations gives them a solid niche for exploit
Distribution Capabilities: The ability to pack, ship, and deliver a unique variety of perishable and nonperishable foods is an advantage if they can handle logistics efficiently
Porter’s Five Forces:
Bargaining Power of Customers—Insignificant (4 out of 5): Innovative Food Holdings sells to multiple types of customers, such as fancy establishments like restaurants and everyday household items like charcuterie boards.
Intensity of Competitive Rivalry—Low (3 out of 5): Innovative Food Holdings sells niche products specific to its company. Other food distribution companies like Sysco sell more broadline food types, while IVFH sells more particular products. This differentiation is crucial as it shows how IVFH is different from others.
Bargaining Power of Suppliers – No (5 out of 5): Many types of food sellers are prevalent in America, so many prices are stable and do not change.
Threat of Substitutes—Medium (3 out of 5): Because specialty food service requires partnerships and connections, companies like US Foods can drop their partnership with IVFH and substitute them for alternatives. However, because creating these partnerships involves a lot of work and trouble, the threat of substitutes is medium.
Threat of New Entrants—Low (3 out of 5): Entering the specialty food distribution industry is highly challenging due to the presence of more prominent brands. Additionally, it is difficult to talk to suppliers and customers first, as contacting restaurants and farms is challenging. Bonds need to be formed first before creating such a company.
Management & Governance
A Fresh Start Under New Leadership – Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) has been breathing new life under the direction of its recently appointed management team, led by CEO Bill Bennett, since March 2023. With his background in e-commerce from industry giants like Walmart and Kroger, Bennett brings a wealth of experience. Moreover, he and his chosen COO, Brady Smallwood, have incentive-based compensation plans directly tied to the company's stock price. This strong alignment with shareholder interests suggests a leadership team focused on creating value for investors. Let's delve deeper into these incentive plans.
Taking Decisive Action – Addressing past issues and focusing on core strengths, one of the new management's first crucial moves was identifying the e-commerce business as a significant source of losses. In January 2024, they shut down this segment entirely. This eliminated a substantial financial burden and freed up valuable resources that could be directed toward more profitable endeavors. Furthermore, selling real estate associated with the e-commerce business provided a welcome cash flow boost.
The new leadership team has shifted its focus to the core B2B segment (specialty food service for professional chefs), a historically profitable area. Recognizing the customer concentration risk, they've implemented a growth strategy to diversify their client base. This includes securing new contracts with large broadline distributors and airline caterers. These new partnerships reduce dependence on US Foods, a single large customer, and expand IVFH's reach and revenue potential.
Improving Profitability and a Board Aligned with Shareholders - The new management team didn't stop there. Even before shutting down the e-commerce business, they sought to improve its profitability. By raising prices and cutting unnecessary marketing expenses, they demonstrably increased margins within this segment. This commitment to financial health extends across all aspects of the company.
The composition of the Board of Directors also suggests a positive shift. Significant shareholders like Pappas and Jeff Gramm indicate a board with a vested interest in IVFH's success. This alignment leads to decisions prioritizing shareholder value, further propelling the company's growth.
Incentive Plans to Drive Shareholder Value - Bill Bennett's stock option plan clearly shows how management compensation is tied to shareholder value. The plan grants him options to purchase a significant number of shares (around 6% of the company) if the stock price reaches $2.00 per share. This incentivizes Bennett to increase the company's stock price, benefiting shareholders.
Similarly, Brady Smallwood's stock option plan likely has similar features. His options vest based on achieving specific performance targets, possibly related to earnings per share (EPS) growth. This structure aligns his interests with those of shareholders, encouraging him to make decisions that drive profitability and stock price appreciation.
Revenue Drivers
Customer Acquisition and Diversification—The company seeks to reduce its dependence on US Foods by signing new contracts with three large broadline distributors and an airline caterer. “Q1 has already included signing a new contract with an existing large customer, Gate Gourmet, and exciting progress made in relationships with four large new customers. We expect these new relationships to contribute to revenue in the back half of the year.
Growth in Drop-Shipping Model – The drop-shipping segment offers higher margins than the traditional model and presents a unique value proposition in the industry. IVFH plans to focus on expanding this segment due to its high profitability and lack of direct competition.
Financial Analysis
Revenue: The B2B segment will drive revenue, with projections of ~$75 million for the fiscal year 2024. This is based on existing business and new contracts. New customer diversification is expected to contribute significantly.
Profitability: The B2B segment before the acquisition of the “bad” e-commerce business had gross margins of ~30% and operating margins of 10%, indicating that the industry could be lucrative. Improved margins are expected due to cost-cutting measures and focus on the core business.
Cash:
They are selling off the e-commerce business real estate (estimated to generate $8-12 million net cash).
Improved profitability from the B2B segment.
Reduced inventory: The drop-shipping model requires minimal inventory investment, potentially leading to a decrease in this asset category.
Debt:
The company is expected to be debt-free from selling loss-making assets and have a surplus, bringing down EV (enterprise value) to mid-30s —low-40s million.
Valuation
My 2028 target price is $2 per share for Innovative Food Holdings, representing a 101.39% upside from the current share price. I arrive at my target price through the following assumptions:
For my valuation, I only use the B2B Prof. Services because management is winding down on the e-commerce segment and honing in on Prof. Services. Using past commentary for my projections, I arrived at a Revenue CAGR of 15.5%, with gross margins reaching 30%, and operating margins of 8% based on the filings before acquiring the e-commerce business. Also, I determined to use a terminal multiple for EV/EBIT at 10.
Valuation analysis: In 2028, we achieve revenue of $122,309,419.5, COGS of $85,616,594, gross profit of $36,692,826, SG&A of $26,908,072, which is 22% of income, and EBIT of 9,784,754. Using a terminal multiple of 10, we arrive at $1.99, representing a 101.39%% upside in 5 years and giving an IRR of ~20%.
Investment Risks
Inflation: IVFH might have trouble in this area due to recent inflation issues. Raw material costs and consumer spending shoot up, an issue for any part of the food industry.
Limited Customer Type: IVFH has limited customer types because it only sells to two major groups: restaurants and homespun parties. Revenue can only come in from one source, a significant issue for any company trying to grow. The small consumer base is risky because all companies compete for the same buyers. IVFH’s customers are also specific to their products, which is an issue because it means they can have trouble branching out.
Conclusion
IVFH presents a compelling investment opportunity underpinning its strategic focus on core B2B specialty food service operations. With an IRR of ~20%, IVFH's valuation analysis underscores its promising growth trajectory and robust returns for investors. The company's proactive measures, streamlined operations, and emphasis on profitability position it favorably for long-term success. As IVFH navigates the evolving landscape of the food distribution industry, its commitment to driving shareholder value and capitalizing on untapped growth potential makes it a classic turnaround play that could one day be more.
PS: This was for the YIS stock pitch competition and doesn’t reflect what future work will entail. Also, I believe the valuation process underrepresents what I think the company could be worth. I worked with a partner, Keith Leung(keithleung36@gmail.com), which also doesn’t reflect his future work. We were set to a specific guideline that restricted what we hoped to explore more, but this will be the final form for this IVFH pitch as we are at the bottom of the 9th of high school. As for me, I hope to write more during the summer and will release a portfolio overview, which I’m very excited to do once I complete my final exams in late June. Thank you for reading & I would enjoy any feedback possible.

Literally the best food experience I ever had was when I visited Paris back in December. No I'm not talking about 5 Star fancy expensive restaurants that tourists eat at at the big commercial places like the museum districts or around the Eiffel Tower. I'm not even talking about the mom and pop's restaurants in poor ghettos or local generic cafe along the streets that you rush to buy a sandwich and coffee from as you sprint your way to work to avoid being narrowly late.....
I'm talking about bakeries no one else ever heard of even within Paris because they are simply just generic shops in a poor working class ghetto no tourists would want to stay at. Or a generic America's 7-11 style convenience store's items stocked in the no-door open refts that you can quickly take a wrapped baguette with ham in it from........
If you're not catching it, I stayed in a cheap hotel in Rue Leon during my stay in Paris during Christmas. I could not believe the quality of the bakery next to my hotel. When I went to a near convenience store that was built and operated in a manner similar to the popular chain franchsie 7-11 with the same mix of regular gas station products and tasty prepared food, I wanted to blow my eyes out becaus emy tongue was exploding from the sesame bread toasted sandwich I ate which was prepared by the store owner ont he same day and wrapped hours earlier beofre I went to the store. Its just generic made by a ma and pops store yet the flavor was far better than the typical fastfood we get at Panera Bread and Chick-Fil-A! Just a few levels shy of actual proper dine-in restaurant quality food in America! And it was just a toasted sesame bread Sandwich as 3€!
When I went to Notre Dame, I ate at a Vegetarian restaurant nearby and.... Well lets just say the boiled potato balls were some of the best potatoes I ever ate. Thats not to even get started on the proper full course we ate.... At the Christmas stands the cured pork ham beats any deli sold at American grocery chain franchises like Food Lion and Kroger........
Well I'll go on and on rambling about how the street mulled red wine sold at sidewalks and the cookie shop's delicate goods and so on so I'll stop here. But with all the so much delicious food everywhere with so many of them being sold at cheap prices at your local venues next door esp bakeries and convenience stores, I have to ask how do Parisians not get so fat? Whats the trick? Especially when obesity rates have been rising at a significantly higher rate than in the past in France, how come almost everyone I come across in Paris are within healthy BMI ranges? If I was living in Paris for the next couple of months I'd become fat as F at over 300 pounds!!!!!!

Literally the best food experience I ever had was when I visited Paris back in December. No I'm not talking about 5 Star fancy expensive restaurants that tourists eat at at the big commercial places like the museum districts or around the Eiffel Tower. I'm not even talking about the mom and pop's restaurants in poor ghettos or local generic cafe along the streets that you rush to buy a sandwich and coffee from as you sprint your way to work to avoid being narrowly late.....
I'm talking about bakeries no one else ever heard of even within Paris because they are simply just generic shops in a poor working class ghetto no tourists would want to stay at. Or a generic America's 7-11 style convenience store's items stocked in the no-door open refts that you can quickly take a wrapped baguette with ham in it from........
If you're not catching it, I stayed in a cheap hotel in Rue Leon during my stay in Paris during Christmas. I could not believe the quality of the bakery next to my hotel. When I went to a near convenience store that was built and operated in a manner similar to the popular chain franchsie 7-11 with the same mix of regular gas station products and tasty prepared food, I wanted to blow my eyes out becaus emy tongue was exploding from the sesame bread toasted sandwich I ate which was prepared by the store owner ont he same day and wrapped hours earlier beofre I went to the store. Its just generic made by a ma and pops store yet the flavor was far better than the typical fastfood we get at Panera Bread and Chick-Fil-A! Just a few levels shy of actual proper dine-in restaurant quality food in America! And it was just a toasted sesame bread Sandwich as 3€!
When I went to Notre Dame, I ate at a Vegetarian restaurant nearby and.... Well lets just say the boiled potato balls were some of the best potatoes I ever ate. Thats not to even get started on the proper full course we ate.... At the Christmas stands the cured pork ham beats any deli sold at American grocery chain franchises like Food Lion and Kroger........
Well I'll go on and on rambling about how the street mulled red wine sold at sidewalks and the cookie shop's delicate goods and so on so I'll stop here. But with all the so much delicious food everywhere with so many of them being sold at cheap prices at your local venues next door esp bakeries and convenience stores, I have to ask how do Parisians not get so fat? Whats the trick? Especially when obesity rates have been rising at a significantly higher rate than in the past in France, how come almost everyone I come across in Paris are within healthy BMI ranges? If I was living in Paris for the next couple of months I'd become fat as F at over 300 pounds!!!!!!

Are memberships to Sam’s and Costco worth it? We have both but I’m considering canceling them. Looking for anyone who has crunched numbers to compare with stores like Wal-Mart, Aldi, and Kroger.
We just paid off our Costco card after accruing a big chunk of debt. We usually just get meats, produce, eggs, dairy, diapers, and wipes and few frozen items here and there. We moved and our Sam’s isn’t as close as our old one but I love their Members Mark brand wipes and diapers among other things. Also their gas is cheaper.
Aldi seems so cheap but I’m suspicious it isn’t actually as cheap as they market their products to be. Like their Tandil detergent for example. I need to compare price per oz. to something like Purex.

FOMC meeting summary:

• Kept interest rate steady at 5.5% in line with expectations.
• Did however, control the balance sheet to point to easing, as they will slow the pace of balance sheet run off starting in June. That’s an easier element of monetary policy for the Fed to control in short term than rates.
• Did note that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress to 2% target
• Said that whilst GDP came weak last month, the individual elements of the economy are strong
• Some weakening of labour market although it is still stronger than pre pandemic.
• Markets rose and dollar fell during conference as Powell pushed back on the possibility of rate hikes. Said that’s not on the table right now, instead the decision is on whether to hold or cut.
• Said current policy is sufficiently restrictive.
• Said that they are still data dependent looking for more confidence from the prints. Said its likely, with recent prints, that confidence will take longer than though (implicitly implying cuts won’t come till late year)
• Basically just reiterated again and again that they needed more time.
• Said that there are 3 scenarios or paths:

1. We dont yet get greater confidence from inflation prints, in which case keep rates steady.
2. We get greater confidence as inflation falls, in which case can cut.
3. We get unexpected weakening in labour market, in which case can cut.

• Said its not necessary that stronger growth must weaken to help inflation. Said supply side easing is yet to come through on inflation. That’s good and tells us that the strong economic data of late isn’t hawkish and Powell actually likes it.
• Spoke about how shelter disinflation is yet to come down.
• Said his forecast is still for inflation to come lower, but said that his confidence in that forecast is lower right now than it was.
• Said stagflation is not a risk at all.

ANALYSIS:

• How are traders taking this?
• Well overall, if we look at liquidity, we can see that traders are basically in 2 minds it seems. Liquidity not really increased or decreased since the fed meeting.
• It seems that basically traders are waiting for NFP for more clarification on exactly what to expect on rate path.
• Signs are there though that despite the dump EOD yesterday, traders aren’t taking it too hawkishly. The reason why I say that is by looking at USD.
• IF traders were taking it hawkishly, then the dump in SPX would be combined with a jump in DXY. However, DXY trades near session lows from yesterday.
• Furthermore, VIX jumped yesterday, but not very much and has now subsided back to 15.
• HY Swaps never really jumped. Again a sign traders aren’t too hawkish.
• However if we follow the data, it appears we should wait and see until NFP basically.

DATA LEDE

• Swiss inflation rate comes 1.4% vs 1.1% forecast. Previous reading was 1%. So ticks up to highest reading of the year.
• CHF popped higher on this as is hawkish for SNB
• Spain Manufacturing PMI came 52.2 beating expectations of 50.8, and comes highest of year to date.
• Good, still seeing economic recovery in Spain
• This is in contrast to what we see in Germany though. So Euro zone seeing some disparity.
• E.g Germany PMI today came 42.5.
• JOBLESS CLAIMS LATER
• US BALANCE OF TRADE LATER
• US FACTORY ORDERS LATER

MARKETS:

• SPX recovering some of the dip EOD yesterday in premarket, on Europe and China performance.
• SPX: ROse to 5095 during FOMC yesterday, then came down to close at 5015. Recovered during after hours and premarket to 5047
• NDX: Rose to 17,700 FOMC, fell to close at 17,300. 400 point drop. Has recovered 170 of those points , back to 17,470
• Ger40 flat just under 18k. Was closed yesterday, sold off on Tuesday with the US market.
• UK100 up by 0.6% to 8150.
• HKG50 up 3.6% - breaks through the 18k level which is v bullish.
• Mainland China markets remained closed for labour day.
• OIL - flat, below 80. Dropped out of the recent uptrend.
• GOLD - down 1% back below 2300 again, which is the key level.
• VIX - Not a massive move yesterday in VIX considering the EOD sell off. Peaked at 16.
• Has pared that back to 15 right now.
• VIX not showing signs of alarm at the moment.

FX:

• Dollar remains lower after Powell was net dovish overall yesterday.
• More FX intervention by BOJ overnight. Bounced off 153. Couldn’t get below the 152 level which is where liquidity is, and where they must get below.
• Suspected spent 3.6T on yen intervention yesterday.
• Yen bounced then from 153 back to 156.
• CHF higher this morning on higher inflation print.
• AUD higher this morning on ridiculously strong performance in HKG market.

EARNINGS:
ALB: Up 2% in premarket.

• EPS of 0.26 beat estimates by 0.03 (beat by 13%)
• Revenue of 1.36B was down 47% YOY, but came in line.
• Sales came in line as Energy storage volume growth increases as projects ramp up.
• Q1 delivered over $90m in productivity and restructuring cost savings.
• 50% operating rate at Kemerton I. Commissioned Meishan and is improving ramp up of Salar Yield
• SEEING SOLID VOLUME GROWTH.
• COST REDUCTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IMRPOVEMENTS.
• STRENGTHENED COMPETITIVE POSITION
• Full year REVENUE GUIDANCE 6.06B if LThium stays at $15. If it increase to 25, this can increase to 7.3B
• This guidance is based on 3 lithium pricing scenarios.
• One is of $15 a kg, another is on $20 and another on $25.
• Current price is $15.20
• So really, the company is doing everything they can to be hones.t They are just struggling with lithium pricing.

DASH

• Current quarter wasn’t terrible in many metrics
• Gross value of orders, jumped 21%
• Total orders increased 21% to 620M, beating estimates of 607M.
• Order value at US grocery stores more than doubled
• So was a High growth quarter.
• The problem, then was that earnings was a bigger miss than expected
• EPS of -0.06 missed estimates of -0.05
• Revenue of 2.51B was up 23% YOY, and beat by 3%
• Disappointing profit forecast for current quarter
• 325m-425M.
• Logistics and efficiency improvements. Significantly reduced average delivery time.
• Adding more items onto the platform and making technical improvements to improve delivery times
• 67% market share.
• Not yet profitable and no timeline given
• CEO says he expects EBITDA to ramp up in H2 as various investments will pay off.
• Margin improvements from Advertising business, selling sponsored placements, will increase as well as the company increases selection of items.
• Has been aggressively expanding non restaurant offerings.
• Downplayed minimum age standards for delivery drivers in NYC and Seattle. This forced them to pass on the higher fee to the customers, but they said they have seen less than 1% reduction in its orders in Q1 as those cities are v small part of overall business.
• Expects significant levels of investment in international markets.

FSLR

• EPS of 2.20 beat by 0.22 (beat by 10%)
• Revenue of 794M was up 45% YOY, beat by 10%
• Net bookings of 2.7GW with average selling price of 31.3 cents
• GUidance changes
• Kept sales guidance the same at 4.4-4.6B, on line with consensus
• Gross margins guidance unchanged
• Operating expenses unchanged
• Earnings guidance unchanged at 13-14, vs expectations of 13.6 (so slight miss there)
• Reduced CAPEX guidance
• Increased Cash balance guidance as a result of lower CAPEX
• Kept same volume guidance.
• Not bad earnings.

ENVX

• EPS of -0.31 missed by 0.02 - so continued losses, and in fact wider loss than anticipated
• Revenue of 5.3M was up based on no revenue last year, and beat by 1.25M
• Very young company, very little revenue etc.
• What they did say, though:
• They made a lot of progress towards reading Fab2 in Malaysia to begin production
• Collaborating with leading customers ahead of shipping first samples of breakthrough EX 1M battery
• Strong top line growth - outperformance due to batteries sold to IOT customers.
• Malaysia factory build out
• Taking actions to reduce cash burn including accelerating plans to identify additional efficiencies as they scale. They want to reduce fixed costs by 1/3. This will accelerate their path to profitability, they said.
• Said they are in talks with leading smartphone OEM who is excited by the product and will formalise relationships to be first using battery - this isn’t yet confirmed.
• They do however have a development agreement with 1 of the top 5 smartphone OEMs ind orld. Begun manufacturing EX1M battery cells based on that manufacturers requirement and will deliver samples in Q2.
• Said they are sending samples to 6 of the top 8 smartphones makers.
• Taking a mobile first approach to product development. Said that reason for this is that smartphone sets standard for battery tech and should allow them to translate success to other areas.
• Said they are seeing interest from leading OEMS in automotive.

QCOM:

• Raised dividend.
• GUIDANCE: which is key right now.
• • Sees revenue $8.8B to $9.6B, EST $9.08B BEAT
• • SeesQCT revenue $7.5B to $8.1B, EST $7.76B BEAT
• • SeesQTL revenue $1.2B to $1.4B, EST $1.27B BEAT
• • Sees ADJ EPS $2.15 to $2.35, EST $2.16 BEAT
• ❖ RESULTS: Q2
• • ADJ EPS $2.44 vs. $2.15 y/y, EST $2.32 BEAT
• • ADJ revenue $9.39B, +1.3% y/y, EST $9.32B BEAT
• • QCT revenue $8.03B, +1.1% y/y, EST $8.01B BEAT
• • Internet of Things revenue $1.24B, -11% y/y, EST $1.25B MISS
• • Handsets revenue $6.18B, +1.2% y/y, EST $6.16B BEAT
• • Automotive revenue $603M, +35% y/y, EST $583.6M BEAT
• • QTL revenue $1.32B, +2.2% y/y, EST $1.31B BEAT
• • QSI segment revenue $3M, -57% y/y, EST $10.7M
• • Adj. reconciling items for revenues $42M, +17% y/y, EST $39M
• • ADJ operating income $3.18B, +6.1% y/y, EST $3.09B BEAT
• Strong earnigns all round, beats across the board pretty much.

CARVANA

• Rev $3.1B vs $2.7B est
• EBITDA $235M vs $132M est
• Units sold 92K vs 84K est
• Strong results, trading up 31% in premarket, mostly result of short squeeze.

MAG 7:

• NVDA - NVDA supplier, SK Hynix’s HMB chips are basically sold out til 2025, amid strong AI demand.
• AAPL - earnings after close.
• GOOGL - lays off hundreds of core employees, moves some positions to India and Mexico
• GOOGL - GOogle paid Apple $20B in 2022 to be Safari’s default search engine.
• TSLA - rescinds internship offers amid cost cutting moves.
• TSLA m- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates at overweight, price target 230.
• MSFT - will open data center in Thailand, doubling down on AI and Asia.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks jump in premarket as Hkg market pumps by 3.5%. EV companies lead this as they delivered their delivery numbers yesterday
• MPWR stock pumps on earnings - Needham reiterates price target at 800 on these tock.
• Plug - plug power secures certification in South Korea
• QCOM up on earnings
• TTD up as Jefferies raises to buy from hold with price target 105.
• AGCO up on earnings - said they are looking for new plan in Indian market
• ABNB introduces Icon category which allows people to stay at unique houses , like the house from UP, which will be lifted into the air by a Crane, and the X man mansion.
• Novo Nordisk raises guidance as Ozempic, their obesity drug, and Wegovy sales surge. Stock still down.
• U - announced that Matthew Bromberg will take over as CEO. Jim Whitehurets will be named executive chair of UNitys board, transitioning from interim CEO.
• XOM - set to close its $60B mega deal for pioneer Natural (PXD) following agreement with antitrust enforcers not to add Pioneer CEO to their board of directors.
• SQ was down yesterday as Federal prosecutors probe financial rasnactions at Block.
• TTWO - closes 2 games studios as part of wider layoffs.
• Kroger and Disney+ in talks for streaming deal. Kroger want to offer Disney+ to boost members at no extra cost.
• Shell - smashed forecasts with 7.7B quarterly profit.
• EBAy down as they signal Q2 revenue forecast to be below expectations as consumer spending remains strained for now.
• ACLS - down, even though they expect revenues in H2 to increase above their anticipated revenue guidance before.
• PAYC down - they keep 2024 outlook unchanged. 1.86-1.885B, vs estimate of 1.872B. In line with guidance.
• Q2 guidance missed the mark though which is why they are down. Q2 guidance came in at 436 vs 442M expected. So miss by 1.3%

OTHER NEWS:

• Key takeaway from FOMC was the tapering ofQT - $25B a month, means less funding ended in Q3, which means less pressure on issuing new bonds. This means yields should slide.
• After FOMC meeting, UK rate futures are fully pricing a September Bank of England rate cut.
• BTC - Investors dumped US based spot BTC ETFs at fastest pace on record yesterday.
• Likely more fX intervention by Japan. Kanda declines to say whether it was, but clearly it was. Still couldn’t break 152 though, which is the key level to get below.
• Understanding is that Japan may have spent 3.6T yen for the intervention yesterday.
• ITO of Japan suggests possible interest rate hike again to 0.5% if yen weakness drives inflation up. There is realistically still a lot we have to see before this is actually on the table though.
• BOJ minutes suggest that inflation can overshoot, says a few members.
• Points to gradual move towards policy normalisation
• Careful consideration needed. Continued aim for 2%
• Mmebers noted there will be a difference between Japan’s move and US monetary tightening.
• Yesterday’s JOLTS - THERE WERE 1.3 VACANCIES FOR EVERY UNEMPLOYED WORKER IN MARCH, THE LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2021. So still very tight, but some loosening.
• ISM MANUFACTURING - PRICE PAID WAS WAY ABOVE EXPECTAITONS.
• US ISM Manufacturing Apr: 49.2 (est 50.0; prev 50.3)
• - ISM Prices Paid Apr: 60.9 (est 55.4; prev 55.8)
• - ISM New Orders Apr: 49.1 (est 51.0; prev 51.4)
• - ISM Employment Apr: 48.6 (est 48.2; prev 47.4)
• INFLATION UP IN ISM PRICES PAID, BUT PRODUCTIVITY DOWN in overall ISM numbers. Bit stagflationary, but note that Powell pushed back strongly on Stagflation in the FOMC meeting yesterday. Said he sees no sign of the stagnating, nor of the inflation.
• Note that ISM prices paid number was highest since June 2022.
• OECD FORECASTS:
• Sees Uk growth at 0.4% vs 0.7% previously
• Raises china growth outlook to 4.9% from 4,7%
• Cuts Japanese growth to 0.5% from 1%
• Raises US growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.1% before.
• Risks to economic outlook are better balanced now.
• US administration announces $3B to replace toxic lead pipes and deliver clean drinking water to communities across country.
• Large fire in Ukrainian port of Odesa after missile strike
• China rejects new nuclear arms control talks with US
• Worlds largest olive oil producer says industry faces one of its toughest moments ever.

FOMC meeting summary:

• Kept interest rate steady at 5.5% in line with expectations.
• Did however, control the balance sheet to point to easing, as they will slow the pace of balance sheet run off starting in June. That’s an easier element of monetary policy for the Fed to control in short term than rates.
• Did note that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress to 2% target
• Said that whilst GDP came weak last month, the individual elements of the economy are strong
• Some weakening of labour market although it is still stronger than pre pandemic.
• Markets rose and dollar fell during conference as Powell pushed back on the possibility of rate hikes. Said that’s not on the table right now, instead the decision is on whether to hold or cut.
• Said current policy is sufficiently restrictive.
• Said that they are still data dependent looking for more confidence from the prints. Said its likely, with recent prints, that confidence will take longer than though (implicitly implying cuts won’t come till late year)
• Basically just reiterated again and again that they needed more time.
• Said that there are 3 scenarios or paths:

1. We dont yet get greater confidence from inflation prints, in which case keep rates steady.
2. We get greater confidence as inflation falls, in which case can cut.
3. We get unexpected weakening in labour market, in which case can cut.

• Said its not necessary that stronger growth must weaken to help inflation. Said supply side easing is yet to come through on inflation. That’s good and tells us that the strong economic data of late isn’t hawkish and Powell actually likes it.
• Spoke about how shelter disinflation is yet to come down.
• Said his forecast is still for inflation to come lower, but said that his confidence in that forecast is lower right now than it was.
• Said stagflation is not a risk at all.

ANALYSIS:

• How are traders taking this?
• Well overall, if we look at liquidity, we can see that traders are basically in 2 minds it seems. Liquidity not really increased or decreased since the fed meeting.
• It seems that basically traders are waiting for NFP for more clarification on exactly what to expect on rate path.
• Signs are there though that despite the dump EOD yesterday, traders aren’t taking it too hawkishly. The reason why I say that is by looking at USD.
• IF traders were taking it hawkishly, then the dump in SPX would be combined with a jump in DXY. However, DXY trades near session lows from yesterday.
• Furthermore, VIX jumped yesterday, but not very much and has now subsided back to 15.
• HY Swaps never really jumped. Again a sign traders aren’t too hawkish.
• However if we follow the data, it appears we should wait and see until NFP basically.

DATA LEDE

• Swiss inflation rate comes 1.4% vs 1.1% forecast. Previous reading was 1%. So ticks up to highest reading of the year.
• CHF popped higher on this as is hawkish for SNB
• Spain Manufacturing PMI came 52.2 beating expectations of 50.8, and comes highest of year to date.
• Good, still seeing economic recovery in Spain
• This is in contrast to what we see in Germany though. So Euro zone seeing some disparity.
• E.g Germany PMI today came 42.5.
• JOBLESS CLAIMS LATER
• US BALANCE OF TRADE LATER
• US FACTORY ORDERS LATER

MARKETS:

• SPX recovering some of the dip EOD yesterday in premarket, on Europe and China performance.
• SPX: ROse to 5095 during FOMC yesterday, then came down to close at 5015. Recovered during after hours and premarket to 5047
• NDX: Rose to 17,700 FOMC, fell to close at 17,300. 400 point drop. Has recovered 170 of those points , back to 17,470
• Ger40 flat just under 18k. Was closed yesterday, sold off on Tuesday with the US market.
• UK100 up by 0.6% to 8150.
• HKG50 up 3.6% - breaks through the 18k level which is v bullish.
• Mainland China markets remained closed for labour day.
• OIL - flat, below 80. Dropped out of the recent uptrend.
• GOLD - down 1% back below 2300 again, which is the key level.
• VIX - Not a massive move yesterday in VIX considering the EOD sell off. Peaked at 16.
• Has pared that back to 15 right now.
• VIX not showing signs of alarm at the moment.

FX:

• Dollar remains lower after Powell was net dovish overall yesterday.
• More FX intervention by BOJ overnight. Bounced off 153. Couldn’t get below the 152 level which is where liquidity is, and where they must get below.
• Suspected spent 3.6T on yen intervention yesterday.
• Yen bounced then from 153 back to 156.
• CHF higher this morning on higher inflation print.
• AUD higher this morning on ridiculously strong performance in HKG market.

EARNINGS:
ALB: Up 2% in premarket.

• EPS of 0.26 beat estimates by 0.03 (beat by 13%)
• Revenue of 1.36B was down 47% YOY, but came in line.
• Sales came in line as Energy storage volume growth increases as projects ramp up.
• Q1 delivered over $90m in productivity and restructuring cost savings.
• 50% operating rate at Kemerton I. Commissioned Meishan and is improving ramp up of Salar Yield
• SEEING SOLID VOLUME GROWTH.
• COST REDUCTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IMRPOVEMENTS.
• STRENGTHENED COMPETITIVE POSITION
• Full year REVENUE GUIDANCE 6.06B if LThium stays at $15. If it increase to 25, this can increase to 7.3B
• This guidance is based on 3 lithium pricing scenarios.
• One is of $15 a kg, another is on $20 and another on $25.
• Current price is $15.20
• So really, the company is doing everything they can to be hones.t They are just struggling with lithium pricing.

DASH

• Current quarter wasn’t terrible in many metrics
• Gross value of orders, jumped 21%
• Total orders increased 21% to 620M, beating estimates of 607M.
• Order value at US grocery stores more than doubled
• So was a High growth quarter.
• The problem, then was that earnings was a bigger miss than expected
• EPS of -0.06 missed estimates of -0.05
• Revenue of 2.51B was up 23% YOY, and beat by 3%
• Disappointing profit forecast for current quarter
• 325m-425M.
• Logistics and efficiency improvements. Significantly reduced average delivery time.
• Adding more items onto the platform and making technical improvements to improve delivery times
• 67% market share.
• Not yet profitable and no timeline given
• CEO says he expects EBITDA to ramp up in H2 as various investments will pay off.
• Margin improvements from Advertising business, selling sponsored placements, will increase as well as the company increases selection of items.
• Has been aggressively expanding non restaurant offerings.
• Downplayed minimum age standards for delivery drivers in NYC and Seattle. This forced them to pass on the higher fee to the customers, but they said they have seen less than 1% reduction in its orders in Q1 as those cities are v small part of overall business.
• Expects significant levels of investment in international markets.

FSLR

• EPS of 2.20 beat by 0.22 (beat by 10%)
• Revenue of 794M was up 45% YOY, beat by 10%
• Net bookings of 2.7GW with average selling price of 31.3 cents
• GUidance changes
• Kept sales guidance the same at 4.4-4.6B, on line with consensus
• Gross margins guidance unchanged
• Operating expenses unchanged
• Earnings guidance unchanged at 13-14, vs expectations of 13.6 (so slight miss there)
• Reduced CAPEX guidance
• Increased Cash balance guidance as a result of lower CAPEX
• Kept same volume guidance.
• Not bad earnings.

ENVX

• EPS of -0.31 missed by 0.02 - so continued losses, and in fact wider loss than anticipated
• Revenue of 5.3M was up based on no revenue last year, and beat by 1.25M
• Very young company, very little revenue etc.
• What they did say, though:
• They made a lot of progress towards reading Fab2 in Malaysia to begin production
• Collaborating with leading customers ahead of shipping first samples of breakthrough EX 1M battery
• Strong top line growth - outperformance due to batteries sold to IOT customers.
• Malaysia factory build out
• Taking actions to reduce cash burn including accelerating plans to identify additional efficiencies as they scale. They want to reduce fixed costs by 1/3. This will accelerate their path to profitability, they said.
• Said they are in talks with leading smartphone OEM who is excited by the product and will formalise relationships to be first using battery - this isn’t yet confirmed.
• They do however have a development agreement with 1 of the top 5 smartphone OEMs ind orld. Begun manufacturing EX1M battery cells based on that manufacturers requirement and will deliver samples in Q2.
• Said they are sending samples to 6 of the top 8 smartphones makers.
• Taking a mobile first approach to product development. Said that reason for this is that smartphone sets standard for battery tech and should allow them to translate success to other areas.
• Said they are seeing interest from leading OEMS in automotive.

QCOM:

• Raised dividend.
• GUIDANCE: which is key right now.
• • Sees revenue $8.8B to $9.6B, EST $9.08B BEAT
• • SeesQCT revenue $7.5B to $8.1B, EST $7.76B BEAT
• • SeesQTL revenue $1.2B to $1.4B, EST $1.27B BEAT
• • Sees ADJ EPS $2.15 to $2.35, EST $2.16 BEAT
• ❖ RESULTS: Q2
• • ADJ EPS $2.44 vs. $2.15 y/y, EST $2.32 BEAT
• • ADJ revenue $9.39B, +1.3% y/y, EST $9.32B BEAT
• • QCT revenue $8.03B, +1.1% y/y, EST $8.01B BEAT
• • Internet of Things revenue $1.24B, -11% y/y, EST $1.25B MISS
• • Handsets revenue $6.18B, +1.2% y/y, EST $6.16B BEAT
• • Automotive revenue $603M, +35% y/y, EST $583.6M BEAT
• • QTL revenue $1.32B, +2.2% y/y, EST $1.31B BEAT
• • QSI segment revenue $3M, -57% y/y, EST $10.7M
• • Adj. reconciling items for revenues $42M, +17% y/y, EST $39M
• • ADJ operating income $3.18B, +6.1% y/y, EST $3.09B BEAT
• Strong earnigns all round, beats across the board pretty much.

CARVANA

• Rev $3.1B vs $2.7B est
• EBITDA $235M vs $132M est
• Units sold 92K vs 84K est
• Strong results, trading up 31% in premarket, mostly result of short squeeze.

MAG 7:

• NVDA - NVDA supplier, SK Hynix’s HMB chips are basically sold out til 2025, amid strong AI demand.
• AAPL - earnings after close.
• GOOGL - lays off hundreds of core employees, moves some positions to India and Mexico
• GOOGL - GOogle paid Apple $20B in 2022 to be Safari’s default search engine.
• TSLA - rescinds internship offers amid cost cutting moves.
• TSLA m- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates at overweight, price target 230.
• MSFT - will open data center in Thailand, doubling down on AI and Asia.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks jump in premarket as Hkg market pumps by 3.5%. EV companies lead this as they delivered their delivery numbers yesterday
• MPWR stock pumps on earnings - Needham reiterates price target at 800 on these tock.
• Plug - plug power secures certification in South Korea
• QCOM up on earnings
• TTD up as Jefferies raises to buy from hold with price target 105.
• AGCO up on earnings - said they are looking for new plan in Indian market
• ABNB introduces Icon category which allows people to stay at unique houses , like the house from UP, which will be lifted into the air by a Crane, and the X man mansion.
• Novo Nordisk raises guidance as Ozempic, their obesity drug, and Wegovy sales surge. Stock still down.
• U - announced that Matthew Bromberg will take over as CEO. Jim Whitehurets will be named executive chair of UNitys board, transitioning from interim CEO.
• XOM - set to close its $60B mega deal for pioneer Natural (PXD) following agreement with antitrust enforcers not to add Pioneer CEO to their board of directors.
• SQ was down yesterday as Federal prosecutors probe financial rasnactions at Block.
• TTWO - closes 2 games studios as part of wider layoffs.
• Kroger and Disney+ in talks for streaming deal. Kroger want to offer Disney+ to boost members at no extra cost.
• Shell - smashed forecasts with 7.7B quarterly profit.
• EBAy down as they signal Q2 revenue forecast to be below expectations as consumer spending remains strained for now.
• ACLS - down, even though they expect revenues in H2 to increase above their anticipated revenue guidance before.
• PAYC down - they keep 2024 outlook unchanged. 1.86-1.885B, vs estimate of 1.872B. In line with guidance.
• Q2 guidance missed the mark though which is why they are down. Q2 guidance came in at 436 vs 442M expected. So miss by 1.3%

OTHER NEWS:

• Key takeaway from FOMC was the tapering ofQT - $25B a month, means less funding ended in Q3, which means less pressure on issuing new bonds. This means yields should slide.
• After FOMC meeting, UK rate futures are fully pricing a September Bank of England rate cut.
• BTC - Investors dumped US based spot BTC ETFs at fastest pace on record yesterday.
• Likely more fX intervention by Japan. Kanda declines to say whether it was, but clearly it was. Still couldn’t break 152 though, which is the key level to get below.
• Understanding is that Japan may have spent 3.6T yen for the intervention yesterday.
• ITO of Japan suggests possible interest rate hike again to 0.5% if yen weakness drives inflation up. There is realistically still a lot we have to see before this is actually on the table though.
• BOJ minutes suggest that inflation can overshoot, says a few members.
• Points to gradual move towards policy normalisation
• Careful consideration needed. Continued aim for 2%
• Mmebers noted there will be a difference between Japan’s move and US monetary tightening.
• Yesterday’s JOLTS - THERE WERE 1.3 VACANCIES FOR EVERY UNEMPLOYED WORKER IN MARCH, THE LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2021. So still very tight, but some loosening.
• ISM MANUFACTURING - PRICE PAID WAS WAY ABOVE EXPECTAITONS.
• US ISM Manufacturing Apr: 49.2 (est 50.0; prev 50.3)
• - ISM Prices Paid Apr: 60.9 (est 55.4; prev 55.8)
• - ISM New Orders Apr: 49.1 (est 51.0; prev 51.4)
• - ISM Employment Apr: 48.6 (est 48.2; prev 47.4)
• INFLATION UP IN ISM PRICES PAID, BUT PRODUCTIVITY DOWN in overall ISM numbers. Bit stagflationary, but note that Powell pushed back strongly on Stagflation in the FOMC meeting yesterday. Said he sees no sign of the stagnating, nor of the inflation.
• Note that ISM prices paid number was highest since June 2022.
• OECD FORECASTS:
• Sees Uk growth at 0.4% vs 0.7% previously
• Raises china growth outlook to 4.9% from 4,7%
• Cuts Japanese growth to 0.5% from 1%
• Raises US growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.1% before.
• Risks to economic outlook are better balanced now.
• US administration announces $3B to replace toxic lead pipes and deliver clean drinking water to communities across country.
• Large fire in Ukrainian port of Odesa after missile strike
• China rejects new nuclear arms control talks with US
• Worlds largest olive oil producer says industry faces one of its toughest moments ever.

For more of my content, please join Tradingedge and share with friends!
FOMC meeting summary:

• Kept interest rate steady at 5.5% in line with expectations.
• Did however, control the balance sheet to point to easing, as they will slow the pace of balance sheet run off starting in June. That’s an easier element of monetary policy for the Fed to control in short term than rates.
• Did note that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress to 2% target
• Said that whilst GDP came weak last month, the individual elements of the economy are strong
• Some weakening of labour market although it is still stronger than pre pandemic.
• Markets rose and dollar fell during conference as Powell pushed back on the possibility of rate hikes. Said that’s not on the table right now, instead the decision is on whether to hold or cut.
• Said current policy is sufficiently restrictive.
• Said that they are still data dependent looking for more confidence from the prints. Said its likely, with recent prints, that confidence will take longer than though (implicitly implying cuts won’t come till late year)
• Basically just reiterated again and again that they needed more time.
• Said that there are 3 scenarios or paths:

1. We dont yet get greater confidence from inflation prints, in which case keep rates steady.
2. We get greater confidence as inflation falls, in which case can cut.
3. We get unexpected weakening in labour market, in which case can cut.

• Said its not necessary that stronger growth must weaken to help inflation. Said supply side easing is yet to come through on inflation. That’s good and tells us that the strong economic data of late isn’t hawkish and Powell actually likes it.
• Spoke about how shelter disinflation is yet to come down.
• Said his forecast is still for inflation to come lower, but said that his confidence in that forecast is lower right now than it was.
• Said stagflation is not a risk at all.

ANALYSIS:

• How are traders taking this?
• Well overall, if we look at liquidity, we can see that traders are basically in 2 minds it seems. Liquidity not really increased or decreased since the fed meeting.
• It seems that basically traders are waiting for NFP for more clarification on exactly what to expect on rate path.
• Signs are there though that despite the dump EOD yesterday, traders aren’t taking it too hawkishly. The reason why I say that is by looking at USD.
• IF traders were taking it hawkishly, then the dump in SPX would be combined with a jump in DXY. However, DXY trades near session lows from yesterday.
• Furthermore, VIX jumped yesterday, but not very much and has now subsided back to 15.
• HY Swaps never really jumped. Again a sign traders aren’t too hawkish.
• However if we follow the data, it appears we should wait and see until NFP basically.

DATA LEDE

• Swiss inflation rate comes 1.4% vs 1.1% forecast. Previous reading was 1%. So ticks up to highest reading of the year.
• CHF popped higher on this as is hawkish for SNB
• Spain Manufacturing PMI came 52.2 beating expectations of 50.8, and comes highest of year to date.
• Good, still seeing economic recovery in Spain
• This is in contrast to what we see in Germany though. So Euro zone seeing some disparity.
• E.g Germany PMI today came 42.5.
• JOBLESS CLAIMS LATER
• US BALANCE OF TRADE LATER
• US FACTORY ORDERS LATER

MARKETS:

• SPX recovering some of the dip EOD yesterday in premarket, on Europe and China performance.
• SPX: ROse to 5095 during FOMC yesterday, then came down to close at 5015. Recovered during after hours and premarket to 5047
• NDX: Rose to 17,700 FOMC, fell to close at 17,300. 400 point drop. Has recovered 170 of those points , back to 17,470
• Ger40 flat just under 18k. Was closed yesterday, sold off on Tuesday with the US market.
• UK100 up by 0.6% to 8150.
• HKG50 up 3.6% - breaks through the 18k level which is v bullish.
• Mainland China markets remained closed for labour day.
• OIL - flat, below 80. Dropped out of the recent uptrend.
• GOLD - down 1% back below 2300 again, which is the key level.
• VIX - Not a massive move yesterday in VIX considering the EOD sell off. Peaked at 16.
• Has pared that back to 15 right now.
• VIX not showing signs of alarm at the moment.

FX:

• Dollar remains lower after Powell was net dovish overall yesterday.
• More FX intervention by BOJ overnight. Bounced off 153. Couldn’t get below the 152 level which is where liquidity is, and where they must get below.
• Suspected spent 3.6T on yen intervention yesterday.
• Yen bounced then from 153 back to 156.
• CHF higher this morning on higher inflation print.
• AUD higher this morning on ridiculously strong performance in HKG market.

EARNINGS:
ALB: Up 2% in premarket.

• EPS of 0.26 beat estimates by 0.03 (beat by 13%)
• Revenue of 1.36B was down 47% YOY, but came in line.
• Sales came in line as Energy storage volume growth increases as projects ramp up.
• Q1 delivered over $90m in productivity and restructuring cost savings.
• 50% operating rate at Kemerton I. Commissioned Meishan and is improving ramp up of Salar Yield
• SEEING SOLID VOLUME GROWTH.
• COST REDUCTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IMRPOVEMENTS.
• STRENGTHENED COMPETITIVE POSITION
• Full year REVENUE GUIDANCE 6.06B if LThium stays at $15. If it increase to 25, this can increase to 7.3B
• This guidance is based on 3 lithium pricing scenarios.
• One is of $15 a kg, another is on $20 and another on $25.
• Current price is $15.20
• So really, the company is doing everything they can to be hones.t They are just struggling with lithium pricing.

DASH

• Current quarter wasn’t terrible in many metrics
• Gross value of orders, jumped 21%
• Total orders increased 21% to 620M, beating estimates of 607M.
• Order value at US grocery stores more than doubled
• So was a High growth quarter.
• The problem, then was that earnings was a bigger miss than expected
• EPS of -0.06 missed estimates of -0.05
• Revenue of 2.51B was up 23% YOY, and beat by 3%
• Disappointing profit forecast for current quarter
• 325m-425M.
• Logistics and efficiency improvements. Significantly reduced average delivery time.
• Adding more items onto the platform and making technical improvements to improve delivery times
• 67% market share.
• Not yet profitable and no timeline given
• CEO says he expects EBITDA to ramp up in H2 as various investments will pay off.
• Margin improvements from Advertising business, selling sponsored placements, will increase as well as the company increases selection of items.
• Has been aggressively expanding non restaurant offerings.
• Downplayed minimum age standards for delivery drivers in NYC and Seattle. This forced them to pass on the higher fee to the customers, but they said they have seen less than 1% reduction in its orders in Q1 as those cities are v small part of overall business.
• Expects significant levels of investment in international markets.

FSLR

• EPS of 2.20 beat by 0.22 (beat by 10%)
• Revenue of 794M was up 45% YOY, beat by 10%
• Net bookings of 2.7GW with average selling price of 31.3 cents
• GUidance changes
• Kept sales guidance the same at 4.4-4.6B, on line with consensus
• Gross margins guidance unchanged
• Operating expenses unchanged
• Earnings guidance unchanged at 13-14, vs expectations of 13.6 (so slight miss there)
• Reduced CAPEX guidance
• Increased Cash balance guidance as a result of lower CAPEX
• Kept same volume guidance.
• Not bad earnings.

ENVX

• EPS of -0.31 missed by 0.02 - so continued losses, and in fact wider loss than anticipated
• Revenue of 5.3M was up based on no revenue last year, and beat by 1.25M
• Very young company, very little revenue etc.
• What they did say, though:
• They made a lot of progress towards reading Fab2 in Malaysia to begin production
• Collaborating with leading customers ahead of shipping first samples of breakthrough EX 1M battery
• Strong top line growth - outperformance due to batteries sold to IOT customers.
• Malaysia factory build out
• Taking actions to reduce cash burn including accelerating plans to identify additional efficiencies as they scale. They want to reduce fixed costs by 1/3. This will accelerate their path to profitability, they said.
• Said they are in talks with leading smartphone OEM who is excited by the product and will formalise relationships to be first using battery - this isn’t yet confirmed.
• They do however have a development agreement with 1 of the top 5 smartphone OEMs ind orld. Begun manufacturing EX1M battery cells based on that manufacturers requirement and will deliver samples in Q2.
• Said they are sending samples to 6 of the top 8 smartphones makers.
• Taking a mobile first approach to product development. Said that reason for this is that smartphone sets standard for battery tech and should allow them to translate success to other areas.
• Said they are seeing interest from leading OEMS in automotive.

QCOM:

• Raised dividend.
• GUIDANCE: which is key right now.
• • Sees revenue $8.8B to $9.6B, EST $9.08B BEAT
• • SeesQCT revenue $7.5B to $8.1B, EST $7.76B BEAT
• • SeesQTL revenue $1.2B to $1.4B, EST $1.27B BEAT
• • Sees ADJ EPS $2.15 to $2.35, EST $2.16 BEAT
• ❖ RESULTS: Q2
• • ADJ EPS $2.44 vs. $2.15 y/y, EST $2.32 BEAT
• • ADJ revenue $9.39B, +1.3% y/y, EST $9.32B BEAT
• • QCT revenue $8.03B, +1.1% y/y, EST $8.01B BEAT
• • Internet of Things revenue $1.24B, -11% y/y, EST $1.25B MISS
• • Handsets revenue $6.18B, +1.2% y/y, EST $6.16B BEAT
• • Automotive revenue $603M, +35% y/y, EST $583.6M BEAT
• • QTL revenue $1.32B, +2.2% y/y, EST $1.31B BEAT
• • QSI segment revenue $3M, -57% y/y, EST $10.7M
• • Adj. reconciling items for revenues $42M, +17% y/y, EST $39M
• • ADJ operating income $3.18B, +6.1% y/y, EST $3.09B BEAT
• Strong earnigns all round, beats across the board pretty much.

CARVANA

• Rev $3.1B vs $2.7B est
• EBITDA $235M vs $132M est
• Units sold 92K vs 84K est
• Strong results, trading up 31% in premarket, mostly result of short squeeze.

MAG 7:

• NVDA - NVDA supplier, SK Hynix’s HMB chips are basically sold out til 2025, amid strong AI demand.
• AAPL - earnings after close.
• GOOGL - lays off hundreds of core employees, moves some positions to India and Mexico
• GOOGL - GOogle paid Apple $20B in 2022 to be Safari’s default search engine.
• TSLA - rescinds internship offers amid cost cutting moves.
• TSLA m- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates at overweight, price target 230.
• MSFT - will open data center in Thailand, doubling down on AI and Asia.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks jump in premarket as Hkg market pumps by 3.5%. EV companies lead this as they delivered their delivery numbers yesterday
• MPWR stock pumps on earnings - Needham reiterates price target at 800 on these tock.
• Plug - plug power secures certification in South Korea
• QCOM up on earnings
• TTD up as Jefferies raises to buy from hold with price target 105.
• AGCO up on earnings - said they are looking for new plan in Indian market
• ABNB introduces Icon category which allows people to stay at unique houses , like the house from UP, which will be lifted into the air by a Crane, and the X man mansion.
• Novo Nordisk raises guidance as Ozempic, their obesity drug, and Wegovy sales surge. Stock still down.
• U - announced that Matthew Bromberg will take over as CEO. Jim Whitehurets will be named executive chair of UNitys board, transitioning from interim CEO.
• XOM - set to close its $60B mega deal for pioneer Natural (PXD) following agreement with antitrust enforcers not to add Pioneer CEO to their board of directors.
• SQ was down yesterday as Federal prosecutors probe financial rasnactions at Block.
• TTWO - closes 2 games studios as part of wider layoffs.
• Kroger and Disney+ in talks for streaming deal. Kroger want to offer Disney+ to boost members at no extra cost.
• Shell - smashed forecasts with 7.7B quarterly profit.
• EBAy down as they signal Q2 revenue forecast to be below expectations as consumer spending remains strained for now.
• ACLS - down, even though they expect revenues in H2 to increase above their anticipated revenue guidance before.
• PAYC down - they keep 2024 outlook unchanged. 1.86-1.885B, vs estimate of 1.872B. In line with guidance.
• Q2 guidance missed the mark though which is why they are down. Q2 guidance came in at 436 vs 442M expected. So miss by 1.3%

OTHER NEWS:

• Key takeaway from FOMC was the tapering ofQT - $25B a month, means less funding ended in Q3, which means less pressure on issuing new bonds. This means yields should slide.
• After FOMC meeting, UK rate futures are fully pricing a September Bank of England rate cut.
• BTC - Investors dumped US based spot BTC ETFs at fastest pace on record yesterday.
• Likely more fX intervention by Japan. Kanda declines to say whether it was, but clearly it was. Still couldn’t break 152 though, which is the key level to get below.
• Understanding is that Japan may have spent 3.6T yen for the intervention yesterday.
• ITO of Japan suggests possible interest rate hike again to 0.5% if yen weakness drives inflation up. There is realistically still a lot we have to see before this is actually on the table though.
• BOJ minutes suggest that inflation can overshoot, says a few members.
• Points to gradual move towards policy normalisation
• Careful consideration needed. Continued aim for 2%
• Mmebers noted there will be a difference between Japan’s move and US monetary tightening.
• Yesterday’s JOLTS - THERE WERE 1.3 VACANCIES FOR EVERY UNEMPLOYED WORKER IN MARCH, THE LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2021. So still very tight, but some loosening.
• ISM MANUFACTURING - PRICE PAID WAS WAY ABOVE EXPECTAITONS.
• US ISM Manufacturing Apr: 49.2 (est 50.0; prev 50.3)
• - ISM Prices Paid Apr: 60.9 (est 55.4; prev 55.8)
• - ISM New Orders Apr: 49.1 (est 51.0; prev 51.4)
• - ISM Employment Apr: 48.6 (est 48.2; prev 47.4)
• INFLATION UP IN ISM PRICES PAID, BUT PRODUCTIVITY DOWN in overall ISM numbers. Bit stagflationary, but note that Powell pushed back strongly on Stagflation in the FOMC meeting yesterday. Said he sees no sign of the stagnating, nor of the inflation.
• Note that ISM prices paid number was highest since June 2022.
• OECD FORECASTS:
• Sees Uk growth at 0.4% vs 0.7% previously
• Raises china growth outlook to 4.9% from 4,7%
• Cuts Japanese growth to 0.5% from 1%
• Raises US growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.1% before.
• Risks to economic outlook are better balanced now.
• US administration announces $3B to replace toxic lead pipes and deliver clean drinking water to communities across country.
• Large fire in Ukrainian port of Odesa after missile strike
• China rejects new nuclear arms control talks with US
• Worlds largest olive oil producer says industry faces one of its toughest moments ever.

For more of my content, please join Tradingedge and share with friends!

For more of my content, please join Tradingedge and share with friends!
FOMC meeting summary:

• Kept interest rate steady at 5.5% in line with expectations.
• Did however, control the balance sheet to point to easing, as they will slow the pace of balance sheet run off starting in June. That’s an easier element of monetary policy for the Fed to control in short term than rates.
• Did note that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress to 2% target
• Said that whilst GDP came weak last month, the individual elements of the economy are strong
• Some weakening of labour market although it is still stronger than pre pandemic.
• Markets rose and dollar fell during conference as Powell pushed back on the possibility of rate hikes. Said that’s not on the table right now, instead the decision is on whether to hold or cut.
• Said current policy is sufficiently restrictive.
• Said that they are still data dependent looking for more confidence from the prints. Said its likely, with recent prints, that confidence will take longer than though (implicitly implying cuts won’t come till late year)
• Basically just reiterated again and again that they needed more time.
• Said that there are 3 scenarios or paths:

1. We dont yet get greater confidence from inflation prints, in which case keep rates steady.
2. We get greater confidence as inflation falls, in which case can cut.
3. We get unexpected weakening in labour market, in which case can cut.

• Said its not necessary that stronger growth must weaken to help inflation. Said supply side easing is yet to come through on inflation. That’s good and tells us that the strong economic data of late isn’t hawkish and Powell actually likes it.
• Spoke about how shelter disinflation is yet to come down.
• Said his forecast is still for inflation to come lower, but said that his confidence in that forecast is lower right now than it was.
• Said stagflation is not a risk at all.

ANALYSIS:

• How are traders taking this?
• Well overall, if we look at liquidity, we can see that traders are basically in 2 minds it seems. Liquidity not really increased or decreased since the fed meeting.
• It seems that basically traders are waiting for NFP for more clarification on exactly what to expect on rate path.
• Signs are there though that despite the dump EOD yesterday, traders aren’t taking it too hawkishly. The reason why I say that is by looking at USD.
• IF traders were taking it hawkishly, then the dump in SPX would be combined with a jump in DXY. However, DXY trades near session lows from yesterday.
• Furthermore, VIX jumped yesterday, but not very much and has now subsided back to 15.
• HY Swaps never really jumped. Again a sign traders aren’t too hawkish.
• However if we follow the data, it appears we should wait and see until NFP basically.

DATA LEDE

• Swiss inflation rate comes 1.4% vs 1.1% forecast. Previous reading was 1%. So ticks up to highest reading of the year.
• CHF popped higher on this as is hawkish for SNB
• Spain Manufacturing PMI came 52.2 beating expectations of 50.8, and comes highest of year to date.
• Good, still seeing economic recovery in Spain
• This is in contrast to what we see in Germany though. So Euro zone seeing some disparity.
• E.g Germany PMI today came 42.5.
• JOBLESS CLAIMS LATER
• US BALANCE OF TRADE LATER
• US FACTORY ORDERS LATER

MARKETS:

• SPX recovering some of the dip EOD yesterday in premarket, on Europe and China performance.
• SPX: ROse to 5095 during FOMC yesterday, then came down to close at 5015. Recovered during after hours and premarket to 5047
• NDX: Rose to 17,700 FOMC, fell to close at 17,300. 400 point drop. Has recovered 170 of those points , back to 17,470
• Ger40 flat just under 18k. Was closed yesterday, sold off on Tuesday with the US market.
• UK100 up by 0.6% to 8150.
• HKG50 up 3.6% - breaks through the 18k level which is v bullish.
• Mainland China markets remained closed for labour day.
• OIL - flat, below 80. Dropped out of the recent uptrend.
• GOLD - down 1% back below 2300 again, which is the key level.
• VIX - Not a massive move yesterday in VIX considering the EOD sell off. Peaked at 16.
• Has pared that back to 15 right now.
• VIX not showing signs of alarm at the moment.

FX:

• Dollar remains lower after Powell was net dovish overall yesterday.
• More FX intervention by BOJ overnight. Bounced off 153. Couldn’t get below the 152 level which is where liquidity is, and where they must get below.
• Suspected spent 3.6T on yen intervention yesterday.
• Yen bounced then from 153 back to 156.
• CHF higher this morning on higher inflation print.
• AUD higher this morning on ridiculously strong performance in HKG market.

EARNINGS:
ALB: Up 2% in premarket.

• EPS of 0.26 beat estimates by 0.03 (beat by 13%)
• Revenue of 1.36B was down 47% YOY, but came in line.
• Sales came in line as Energy storage volume growth increases as projects ramp up.
• Q1 delivered over $90m in productivity and restructuring cost savings.
• 50% operating rate at Kemerton I. Commissioned Meishan and is improving ramp up of Salar Yield
• SEEING SOLID VOLUME GROWTH.
• COST REDUCTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IMRPOVEMENTS.
• STRENGTHENED COMPETITIVE POSITION
• Full year REVENUE GUIDANCE 6.06B if LThium stays at $15. If it increase to 25, this can increase to 7.3B
• This guidance is based on 3 lithium pricing scenarios.
• One is of $15 a kg, another is on $20 and another on $25.
• Current price is $15.20
• So really, the company is doing everything they can to be hones.t They are just struggling with lithium pricing.

DASH

• Current quarter wasn’t terrible in many metrics
• Gross value of orders, jumped 21%
• Total orders increased 21% to 620M, beating estimates of 607M.
• Order value at US grocery stores more than doubled
• So was a High growth quarter.
• The problem, then was that earnings was a bigger miss than expected
• EPS of -0.06 missed estimates of -0.05
• Revenue of 2.51B was up 23% YOY, and beat by 3%
• Disappointing profit forecast for current quarter
• 325m-425M.
• Logistics and efficiency improvements. Significantly reduced average delivery time.
• Adding more items onto the platform and making technical improvements to improve delivery times
• 67% market share.
• Not yet profitable and no timeline given
• CEO says he expects EBITDA to ramp up in H2 as various investments will pay off.
• Margin improvements from Advertising business, selling sponsored placements, will increase as well as the company increases selection of items.
• Has been aggressively expanding non restaurant offerings.
• Downplayed minimum age standards for delivery drivers in NYC and Seattle. This forced them to pass on the higher fee to the customers, but they said they have seen less than 1% reduction in its orders in Q1 as those cities are v small part of overall business.
• Expects significant levels of investment in international markets.

FSLR

• EPS of 2.20 beat by 0.22 (beat by 10%)
• Revenue of 794M was up 45% YOY, beat by 10%
• Net bookings of 2.7GW with average selling price of 31.3 cents
• GUidance changes
• Kept sales guidance the same at 4.4-4.6B, on line with consensus
• Gross margins guidance unchanged
• Operating expenses unchanged
• Earnings guidance unchanged at 13-14, vs expectations of 13.6 (so slight miss there)
• Reduced CAPEX guidance
• Increased Cash balance guidance as a result of lower CAPEX
• Kept same volume guidance.
• Not bad earnings.

ENVX

• EPS of -0.31 missed by 0.02 - so continued losses, and in fact wider loss than anticipated
• Revenue of 5.3M was up based on no revenue last year, and beat by 1.25M
• Very young company, very little revenue etc.
• What they did say, though:
• They made a lot of progress towards reading Fab2 in Malaysia to begin production
• Collaborating with leading customers ahead of shipping first samples of breakthrough EX 1M battery
• Strong top line growth - outperformance due to batteries sold to IOT customers.
• Malaysia factory build out
• Taking actions to reduce cash burn including accelerating plans to identify additional efficiencies as they scale. They want to reduce fixed costs by 1/3. This will accelerate their path to profitability, they said.
• Said they are in talks with leading smartphone OEM who is excited by the product and will formalise relationships to be first using battery - this isn’t yet confirmed.
• They do however have a development agreement with 1 of the top 5 smartphone OEMs ind orld. Begun manufacturing EX1M battery cells based on that manufacturers requirement and will deliver samples in Q2.
• Said they are sending samples to 6 of the top 8 smartphones makers.
• Taking a mobile first approach to product development. Said that reason for this is that smartphone sets standard for battery tech and should allow them to translate success to other areas.
• Said they are seeing interest from leading OEMS in automotive.

QCOM:

• Raised dividend.
• GUIDANCE: which is key right now.
• • Sees revenue $8.8B to $9.6B, EST $9.08B BEAT
• • SeesQCT revenue $7.5B to $8.1B, EST $7.76B BEAT
• • SeesQTL revenue $1.2B to $1.4B, EST $1.27B BEAT
• • Sees ADJ EPS $2.15 to $2.35, EST $2.16 BEAT
• ❖ RESULTS: Q2
• • ADJ EPS $2.44 vs. $2.15 y/y, EST $2.32 BEAT
• • ADJ revenue $9.39B, +1.3% y/y, EST $9.32B BEAT
• • QCT revenue $8.03B, +1.1% y/y, EST $8.01B BEAT
• • Internet of Things revenue $1.24B, -11% y/y, EST $1.25B MISS
• • Handsets revenue $6.18B, +1.2% y/y, EST $6.16B BEAT
• • Automotive revenue $603M, +35% y/y, EST $583.6M BEAT
• • QTL revenue $1.32B, +2.2% y/y, EST $1.31B BEAT
• • QSI segment revenue $3M, -57% y/y, EST $10.7M
• • Adj. reconciling items for revenues $42M, +17% y/y, EST $39M
• • ADJ operating income $3.18B, +6.1% y/y, EST $3.09B BEAT
• Strong earnigns all round, beats across the board pretty much.

CARVANA

• Rev $3.1B vs $2.7B est
• EBITDA $235M vs $132M est
• Units sold 92K vs 84K est
• Strong results, trading up 31% in premarket, mostly result of short squeeze.

MAG 7:

• NVDA - NVDA supplier, SK Hynix’s HMB chips are basically sold out til 2025, amid strong AI demand.
• AAPL - earnings after close.
• GOOGL - lays off hundreds of core employees, moves some positions to India and Mexico
• GOOGL - GOogle paid Apple $20B in 2022 to be Safari’s default search engine.
• TSLA - rescinds internship offers amid cost cutting moves.
• TSLA m- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates at overweight, price target 230.
• MSFT - will open data center in Thailand, doubling down on AI and Asia.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks jump in premarket as Hkg market pumps by 3.5%. EV companies lead this as they delivered their delivery numbers yesterday
• MPWR stock pumps on earnings - Needham reiterates price target at 800 on these tock.
• Plug - plug power secures certification in South Korea
• QCOM up on earnings
• TTD up as Jefferies raises to buy from hold with price target 105.
• AGCO up on earnings - said they are looking for new plan in Indian market
• ABNB introduces Icon category which allows people to stay at unique houses , like the house from UP, which will be lifted into the air by a Crane, and the X man mansion.
• Novo Nordisk raises guidance as Ozempic, their obesity drug, and Wegovy sales surge. Stock still down.
• U - announced that Matthew Bromberg will take over as CEO. Jim Whitehurets will be named executive chair of UNitys board, transitioning from interim CEO.
• XOM - set to close its $60B mega deal for pioneer Natural (PXD) following agreement with antitrust enforcers not to add Pioneer CEO to their board of directors.
• SQ was down yesterday as Federal prosecutors probe financial rasnactions at Block.
• TTWO - closes 2 games studios as part of wider layoffs.
• Kroger and Disney+ in talks for streaming deal. Kroger want to offer Disney+ to boost members at no extra cost.
• Shell - smashed forecasts with 7.7B quarterly profit.
• EBAy down as they signal Q2 revenue forecast to be below expectations as consumer spending remains strained for now.
• ACLS - down, even though they expect revenues in H2 to increase above their anticipated revenue guidance before.
• PAYC down - they keep 2024 outlook unchanged. 1.86-1.885B, vs estimate of 1.872B. In line with guidance.
• Q2 guidance missed the mark though which is why they are down. Q2 guidance came in at 436 vs 442M expected. So miss by 1.3%

OTHER NEWS:

• Key takeaway from FOMC was the tapering ofQT - $25B a month, means less funding ended in Q3, which means less pressure on issuing new bonds. This means yields should slide.
• After FOMC meeting, UK rate futures are fully pricing a September Bank of England rate cut.
• BTC - Investors dumped US based spot BTC ETFs at fastest pace on record yesterday.
• Likely more fX intervention by Japan. Kanda declines to say whether it was, but clearly it was. Still couldn’t break 152 though, which is the key level to get below.
• Understanding is that Japan may have spent 3.6T yen for the intervention yesterday.
• ITO of Japan suggests possible interest rate hike again to 0.5% if yen weakness drives inflation up. There is realistically still a lot we have to see before this is actually on the table though.
• BOJ minutes suggest that inflation can overshoot, says a few members.
• Points to gradual move towards policy normalisation
• Careful consideration needed. Continued aim for 2%
• Mmebers noted there will be a difference between Japan’s move and US monetary tightening.
• Yesterday’s JOLTS - THERE WERE 1.3 VACANCIES FOR EVERY UNEMPLOYED WORKER IN MARCH, THE LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2021. So still very tight, but some loosening.
• ISM MANUFACTURING - PRICE PAID WAS WAY ABOVE EXPECTAITONS.
• US ISM Manufacturing Apr: 49.2 (est 50.0; prev 50.3)
• - ISM Prices Paid Apr: 60.9 (est 55.4; prev 55.8)
• - ISM New Orders Apr: 49.1 (est 51.0; prev 51.4)
• - ISM Employment Apr: 48.6 (est 48.2; prev 47.4)
• INFLATION UP IN ISM PRICES PAID, BUT PRODUCTIVITY DOWN in overall ISM numbers. Bit stagflationary, but note that Powell pushed back strongly on Stagflation in the FOMC meeting yesterday. Said he sees no sign of the stagnating, nor of the inflation.
• Note that ISM prices paid number was highest since June 2022.
• OECD FORECASTS:
• Sees Uk growth at 0.4% vs 0.7% previously
• Raises china growth outlook to 4.9% from 4,7%
• Cuts Japanese growth to 0.5% from 1%
• Raises US growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.1% before.
• Risks to economic outlook are better balanced now.
• US administration announces $3B to replace toxic lead pipes and deliver clean drinking water to communities across country.
• Large fire in Ukrainian port of Odesa after missile strike
• China rejects new nuclear arms control talks with US
• Worlds largest olive oil producer says industry faces one of its toughest moments ever.

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