Hey guys, I used to work at a private equity marketing agency that bought, scaled, and sold DTC e-commerce, SAAS, info & digital product online brands and I was a media buyer. I have over $10M worth of spend under my belt for clients, and have worked with multiple 7-8 figure online companies.
No I’m not looking to sell you anything so don’t assume that I’m making this post for that reason.
I am trying to build a network of like minded people and am focused on building an engaged community with the same goals to help each other and stuff.
I’ve had the luxury of being able to see many different business models by working for a P.E agency. I will share some businesses I saw and you can do what you want with that info

1 - $100M a year self cooling bedsheet brand

When I tell you self cooling bedsheets had the highest revenue I’ve seen of any ecom store I am not exaggerating. It was f*cking baffling how much money these mfs were making by selling self cooling bedsheets.
The craziest part is that they did it all thru paid ads. I was stunned looking at the backend of the Shopify account and seeing these numbers. The reason a product like self cool bedsheets works so well is because of a few things:
A) Broad TAM (total addressable market) This means they can sell to a broader range of people. The more people you can sell to for e com the better.
Their AOV (average order value) was $110 as well. So not only are they targeting a broad audience, but they have really good margins
I think another reason why this product / brand is doing so well is because of timing as well. They exited in 2018, but really blew up during 2020 when everyone was home.
F it I’ll name drop. They’re called Miracle brand. Go study their LP and ads. Their LP is really high converting like 5-7%. Their offer is amazing (3 free towels with your bedsheets) and the CRO is fully optimized.

2 - subscription based Digital Assets

This one is really good, but super niche. The company basically sells digital editing assets that go with editing software like Davinci, IMovie, and whatever other editing softwares there are
They have 100% profit margins on the product and they offer a subscription. Their AOV is $60 per month and people actually subscribe because they know that these digital assets are really really good and it will save them time when editing. They were doing $2-$3M per year in revenue on a 100% margin product which is now offered as a subscription. I believe the overall margins on the business was like 70-80% they had low overhead.
These mfs are absolutely PRINTING. It’s not easy to make really good digital editing assets either so it’s hard to replicate. The #1 thing when buying or selling a business is margins. Their business if an easily be sold for 7-9x because of big margins, big AOV, and the MRR (monthly recurring revenue). On average businesses sell for 3-6x in the DTC (direct to consumer) e commerce space, but when you add a subscription model and it’s a digital product, you double the valuation of your company
Like I said, I am just sharing business models I’ve seen that were absolutely amazing!

3 - Sticker company

This one I think surprised me the most. These guys were selling a subscription for you to get a pack of custom anime stickers every single month.
Yup, you get high quality anime stickers every single month. This business wasn’t doing $1M but they did take in 6-figs. The reason this model is smart is because the margins are really good. It only costs like $0.50 USD to make a full pack of these custom stickers and you add $3-$4 for shipping. Their AOV was like $25-$30.
I think this business worked well because it caters to a strong fan base of people who love anime. Personally I like avatar and one piece but there’s a lot of anime super fans who would love to subscribe to a sticker club that sends you a custom pack of cool stickers of your favorite anime. Not sure how the legal side of it worked.
Comment what you think, and let me know if you have any questions. Half of these business models were very surprising and to this day it’s hard to believe that they work so well.
Feel free to also share good business models you’ve seen. There’s a lot more I can share but these stand out the most

Greetings veteran WoL!
I have an active PC subscription for stand alone PC launcher. I have all expansions except for Endwalker and the upcoming Dawntrail. I have run the benchmark for my PC and it turned out better than I would have thought.
So, I am wondering if it is worth it to switch over to my Xbox Series X for more comfortable gaming on a larger screen.
What all do I need to fully upgrade and transfer over PC account to Xbox, please?
EDIT: This is kinda a birthday present for myself, so I know and accept this is gonna cost me.

Ideological Foundation

• Individual Freedom & Natural Rights
  • Emphasis on individual liberties and natural rights.
  • Minimal government interference in personal lives and domestic issues
  • Domestically, the role of government ought to be to protect citizens' rights to life, liberty, and private property
• National Sovereignty & Populism
  • Strong focus on national security, national interests, and American exceptionalism; national sovereignty and self-sufficiency
• Fiscal Conservatism
  • Commitment to balanced budgets and reducing national debt
  • Low taxes and minimal government spending, fostering a free-market economy
  • Spending should be focused solely on essential functions that protect citizens' rights and national security/sovereignty, namely national defense, border security, law and justice system, infrastructure, and childhood education.
• Rugged Individualism and Loyalty
  • Embrace self-reliance, toughness, and personal responsibility
  • Loyalty to family and close allies, valuing trust and loyalty above all

​
Policy Viewpoints

• Economic Policy
  • Free Market Principles: Promote a free-market economy with minimal regulation, reducing bureaucratic red tape to encourage entrepreneurship and innovation
  • Taxation: Implement low tax rates to spur economic growth and investment. Simplify the tax code to make it fairer and more efficient
  • Government Spending: Limit government spending, focusing on essential services. Reduce waste and ensure fiscal responsibility to lower the national debt
• Foreign Policy
  • Non-Interventionism: Avoid unnecessary foreign entanglements and military interventions. Focus on diplomacy and trade relations that benefit national interests.
  • Defense: Maintain a strong national defense to protect sovereignty but avoid being the world’s policeman. Prioritize defense spending efficiently.
  • Trade: prioritize domestic industries and local jobs, utilize protectionist policies when advantageous to protect them.
• Domestic Policy
  • Individual Liberties: Protect individual rights, including freedom of speech, religion, and privacy. Oppose government surveillance and overreach.
  • Justice System: Ensure a fair and swift justice system. Advocate for criminal justice reform to reduce over-incarceration and emphasize rehabilitation.
  • Property Rights: Strong protection of property rights, ensuring individuals can own and use their property without undue government interference.
• Immigration & Border Policy
  • Secured Borders: Implement strong border security measures to prevent illegal immigration and protect national sovereignty. Deport any and all illegal immigrants. Hold the countries these illegals are coming from accountable for the costs and burdens illegal immigration causes, if feasible.
  • Legal Immigration: Allow legal immigration but make it far more merit-based and prioritize the well-being of the nation and its current citizens. Immigrants must be able to be self-sufficient and support themselves, raise their families, and assimilate not so much to our culture but to our national values and principles.
• Healthcare
  • Market-Based Solutions: Encourage competition in the healthcare market to lower costs and improve quality. Oppose a single-payer system or excessive government control. Remove useless, harmful regulations.
  • Transparency: all providers must charge transparent, non-discriminatory, publicly available prices for all services. Also, consumer choice.
• Education
  • School Choice: Support school choice initiatives, including charter schools and voucher programs, to provide parents with options and improve educational outcomes.
  • Local Control: Advocate for local control of education, reducing federal government involvement and allowing communities to tailor education to their needs.
• Environmental Policy
  • Conservation: Promote conservation efforts that protect natural resources while allowing for responsible use and development. Balance environmental protection with economic growth.
  • Innovation: Encourage technological innovation to address environmental challenges, rather than heavy-handed regulation.
• Trade Policy
  • Fair Trade: Implement trade policies that ensure fair competition and protect American jobs. Use tariffs selectively to counteract unfair trade practices.
  • Economic Nationalism: Prioritize trade deals that benefit the American economy and workers, fostering self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on foreign production.

I'm new on Facebook Ads and I'm trying to track my leads. I've made the Pixel integration between FB Ads and MailChimp and it works, but the Results are not showing up.
What I want is to have FB Ads understanding that everytime someone opens the website, fill out a quick form with email and phone number and clicks on DOWNLOAD (for a free book that im offering) a lead is generated.
How do I make this?
Thanks!
https://preview.redd.it/kagqw6mg8e1d1.png?width=1493&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d53746e0c245ce8a9d206021fe878b3839a1559

So I am 37(M) and my mother (73) before she passed away on 24/12 /23. The thing that happened was that my mom ended up, having health scares one after another last year. So essentially it was first when she was told to get minor cataract surgeries, this time of month last year and both her and me were busy with her tests and later surgeries in June, July. Since she had Care insurance, she applied for her cataract surgies claim - earlier both got approved for 30k each for both surgies costing almost 50k each but then suddenly they backtracked & said one claim was rejected as place where we got surgies done, was blacklisted later. Now the single 30k claim should have been deposited, right. But nope, it still stuck & since my mom later got diagnosed with stage-4 kidney cancer in September which really shocked both me and my mom as my mom's tests have always been decent, we couldn't follow up more than couple of attempts & instead got focused with dealing with the cancer situation. Irrespectively, I got her on keytruda immunotherapy asap as surgeon couldn't operate till it was reduced and my mom was indeed reacting very positively to the treatment despite some issues with side-effects. However despite my best efforts, my mother suffered a brain stroke and I had to take the difficult decision of taking her off life support while dealing with another care insurance tantrum where they rejected her icu charges when she was admitted as I rushed her to hospital while having a brain stroke. In short, I ended up paying almost 1lakh out of my pocket and still had to pay additional 2.5lakh for further processes which was further complicated by my narcissistic sister who was only around to get her inheritance & making my life hell so I had almost no time to arrange the amount as I had only 40k left. Thus I unfortunately withdrew funds from my mom's accounts (I am Nominee & had her credentials though I also refunded them once I had a more stable mindset & recovered from fevemy learning disability med issues throughout January). Either way, I initiated the Maharashtra govt ppo closure (I had refunded the amts taken from pension accounts prior to initiating paperwork) by Jan end & also approached local cbi home branch for also closing my deceased father's family pension to my mom. The branch manager directed me to this problematic deputy branch manager to whom I did admit that I had to withdraw funds from my mother's pension accounts but I have refunded them once I gathered resources(basically my sibling & family members are useless besides the fact that my sister has indulged in some criminal offenses like harassing me & my mom both before & after her death, etc while said family members did nothing besides ignoring my complicated health issues as I could have died the day my mom passed away). Since my mother also took 3 online FDs earlier in 2023, the deputy branch manager wanted me to break them & told me that individual account won't be closed & only her CIF would be directly deactivated. Also it was only few months for FDs to maturity & state govt pension closure was yet to occur - I told her that I will file for death claim settlement once state govt pension is closed & excess pension is recovered by them as deactivating the CIF will make this troublesome & a legal case. So she agreed to wait till state govt pension is closed and I gather all necessary documents in the meantime. Luckily state govt treasury did close the ppo & withdrew excess pension by 19th March while I also managed to transfer most of the mutual funds where I am Nominee. However since state govt treasury office (it's in another city from where I live & reasonably far), didn't give me letter of closure/confirmation - I was asked to wait for 1 month by local treasury officer (as financial year closing was approaching) which I informed to said deputy branch manager again. During this time, I also had to deal with legal paperwork as the lawyer my mom knew, didn't inform her or me to register the will, my mom made & also wasted my time in March. So I had to look for other ways to inherit one immovable property (my sibling holds 16.66% share and I have 83.34% as per my mom's wish to inherit the property as per her will), one problematic mf scheme transfer which I accidentally botched by editing Nominee details (still not sure as my mental health was seriously impaired in Jan/Feb & I also have same scheme, so not sure how it happened as there's no email confirmation except for an otp I found though I am not sure why I would update nominee details when I am already nominee there & even mentioned in will). Since UTI rejected both of my transmission claims so I am waiting for my current lawyer to complete the gift deed & apply for heirship certificate at municipality for filing my deceased mom's ITR. Also please note that despite timely updates to deputy branch manager, she let the FDs renew without my permission & has been acting dubious besides acting very rudely with me. So situation is,

1. I have filed compliant with cbi bank (or rather couple of them as again, I wasn't informed properly nor received proper feedback from bank plus despite calling customer care for almost 7 times, most aren't clear in their instructions as some mentioned different email-ids to complain to one asking to file a complaint with branch itself but I am not sure as branch manager said nothing despite my confrontation with deputy branch manager happening in front of him). Now I will be collecting the FDs physical certificates from branch & wait for resolution as said deputy branch manager is very suspicious(like asking me to file false FIR for missing online FDs physical certificates which I never had & whose online receipts I already have to also blaming me that I didn't tell her they were online while she wasted time & made me do a Rs500 stamp paper indemnity bond with additional documents like death certificate, AadhaPan, etc or saying there will be penalty for breaking autorenewed FDs that strangely got renewed on maturity dates without any prior indication & some things not adding up with new scheme plus the whole confusing me with different instructions & false claims all the time). Though luckily I have recorded the conversation with her first blaming me then backtracking once her fault was found. Also I atleast managed to travel to the distant city for closing state govt pension bank account & it was transferred to my savings account (it's at same problematic home branch) on 3rd May & de-activated my mom's CIF. So as bank resolution will take additional 15days to come(customer care first said 48hrs & now saying different), should I approach branch with resolution & LHC to minimize further problems despite being Nominee.(there's an error in relationship in cbi's savings account where my name & details are there but relationship is daughter instead of son but I already made Rs.100 self-affidavit as per dubious deputy branch manager instructions & all other documents including death claim form).

 

1. Applying for my mom's final ITR is necessary & I have already submitted most financial statements to my CA to compute including the TDS deducted on the FDs since I have been given July-end deadline. Plus as my mother & me spent more than 10lakh+ for her cancer treatment, I am hoping that I will get some deductible relief on her final itr besides tds. The issue is that I am still lacking any legal heirship document that will allow me to register as assessee for filing my mother's ITR. I did ask another bank where I am also nominee for mom's account, for issuing bank letter confirming Nominee details but they refused. However hopefully as I am going to execute a registered gift deed with help of my new lawyer that will mention my mom's unregistered will, I am hoping it allows me to register for the ITR. Otherwise I will have to approach local municipality office for issuing surviving family membeheirship certificate once gift deed allows me to initiate transfer property to my name.

 

1. There are still some untransferred assets such as a SBG linked to my mom's account besides the UTI scheme that's linked to same account(for uti, I already have most paperwork ready except that they asked for legal document that confirms relationship between me and my mother so while I can submit my passport copy though feeling it's better if will gets registered during gift deed process as it's mentioned there). Then there's the care insurance claim associated with same account & taken by bank officials of same bank yet it came to my attention that Care apparently messed my mom's name multiple times while issuing the policy & the claim hasn't processed as policy name & bank account name don't match (it's only a difference in middlename and could have been conveyed to my mom when she approached them multiple times). I did ask my lawyer regarding this & as amount is only 30k, he has asked me not to think about claim as for now as Care doesn't seem sincere as they haven't given it in writing that they will issue claim if I submit LHC/Registered Will with other documents. So while I will get SBG once I close the account & also uti mf scheme (hopefully), I am not sure if I should file a consumer case against Care (as an employee even misbehaved with my mom & the claim situation feels really fraudulent) or just hope that Care would honor the claim once I submit the documents.(they also only mentioned sending documents over email so again felt weird)

 
Overall all these incidents have seriously affected my health and frankly I need a break for myself as I am still struggling with my grieving (I saw my mom die 3 times & the family drama still triggers my cptsd though I am not suicidal or having med issues unlike in Jan besides still unable to take some personal time off due to these commitments). I also apologize if this post ended up too long or having details all over the place as I am still trying to piece together as much information I have as I do have written journal records of the paperwork & events that occurred though I forgot to list down some details here & there due to trying to manage everything by my own.

Hi. My cat has had a upper respiratory infection with nose bleeding, that isn't responding well to antibiotics since December, she last got off of antibiotics may 1st. She was doing fine, only one nose bleed all of may until the past few days, and now, this morning I woke up to a blood clot on the screen of my phone that she sneezed out, so I'm worried about her and I just can't afford to take her in tomorrow.
If anyone can help I'll either be taking her to a place 30 miles from my town where I can do a payment plan, so I'd only need help with the first payment, after that I can make all the payments myself. Although I'm not 100% certain they do payment plans, I'll call tomorrow/Monday and find out. If not I'd take her to a regular vet in town but I know for sure they don't take payment plans and require the full payment up front.
I'm sure they'll want to test her for feline leukemia, do blood work again, and more antibiotics of a longer course probably.
Let me know if you can help at all. My cat is only 6 years old and I love her so much, I'm desperate to get her help. I won't take payments through me instead I'd prefer them to go to her vet directly.
This is the veterinarians office she goes to
All creatures animal clinic in bolivar, Missouri 65613. (417) 777-2765 the account name would be under Princess martin.
Just figured I'd put their contact info in the post I hope that's okay. I really don't want to lose my cat I'm already heart broken that I might have to soon.
Thanks <3
Edit: Helped with $30 so far, not sure how much everything will cost the antibiotics alone run around 34.

So I am 37(M) and my mother (73) before she passed away on 24/12 /23. The thing that happened was that my mom ended up, having health scares one after another last year. So essentially it was first when she was told to get minor cataract surgeries, this time of month last year and both her and me were busy with her tests and later surgeries in June, July. Since she had Care insurance, she applied for her cataract surgies claim - earlier both got approved for 30k each for both surgies costing almost 50k each but then suddenly they backtracked & said one claim was rejected as place where we got surgies done, was blacklisted later. Now the single 30k claim should have been deposited, right. But nope, it still stuck & since my mom later got diagnosed with stage-4 kidney cancer in September which really shocked both me and my mom as my mom's tests have always been decent, we couldn't follow up more than couple of attempts & instead got focused with dealing with the cancer situation. Irrespectively, I got her on keytruda immunotherapy asap as surgeon couldn't operate till it was reduced and my mom was indeed reacting very positively to the treatment despite some issues with side-effects. However despite my best efforts, my mother suffered a brain stroke and I had to take the difficult decision of taking her off life support while dealing with another care insurance tantrum where they rejected her icu charges when she was admitted as I rushed her to hospital while having a brain stroke. In short, I ended up paying almost 1lakh out of my pocket and still had to pay additional 2.5lakh for further processes which was further complicated by my narcissistic sister who was only around to get her inheritance & making my life hell so I had almost no time to arrange the amount as I had only 40k left. Thus I unfortunately withdrew funds from my mom's accounts (I am Nominee & had her credentials though I also refunded them once I had a more stable mindset & recovered from fevemy learning disability med issues throughout January). Either way, I initiated the Maharashtra govt ppo closure (I had refunded the amts taken from pension accounts prior to initiating paperwork) by Jan end & also approached local cbi home branch for also closing my deceased father's family pension to my mom. The branch manager directed me to this problematic deputy branch manager to whom I did admit that I had to withdraw funds from my mother's pension accounts but I have refunded them once I gathered resources(basically my sibling & family members are useless besides the fact that my sister has indulged in some criminal offenses like harassing me & my mom both before & after her death, etc while said family members did nothing besides ignoring my complicated health issues as I could have died the day my mom passed away). Since my mother also took 3 online FDs earlier in 2023, the deputy branch manager wanted me to break them & told me that individual account won't be closed & only her CIF would be directly deactivated. Also it was only few months for FDs to maturity & state govt pension closure was yet to occur - I told her that I will file for death claim settlement once state govt pension is closed & excess pension is recovered by them as deactivating the CIF will make this troublesome & a legal case. So she agreed to wait till state govt pension is closed and I gather all necessary documents in the meantime. Luckily state govt treasury did close the ppo & withdrew excess pension by 19th March while I also managed to transfer most of the mutual funds where I am Nominee. However since state govt treasury office (it's in another city from where I live & reasonably far), didn't give me letter of closure/confirmation - I was asked to wait for 1 month by local treasury officer (as financial year closing was approaching) which I informed to said deputy branch manager again. During this time, I also had to deal with legal paperwork as the lawyer my mom knew, didn't inform her or me to register the will, my mom made & also wasted my time in March. So I had to look for other ways to inherit one immovable property (my sibling holds 16.66% share and I have 83.34% as per my mom's wish to inherit the property as per her will), one problematic mf scheme transfer which I accidentally botched by editing Nominee details (still not sure as my mental health was seriously impaired in Jan/Feb & I also have same scheme, so not sure how it happened as there's no email confirmation except for an otp I found though I am not sure why I would update nominee details when I am already nominee there & even mentioned in will). Since UTI rejected both of my transmission claims so I am waiting for my current lawyer to complete the gift deed & apply for heirship certificate at municipality for filing my deceased mom's ITR. Also please note that despite timely updates to deputy branch manager, she let the FDs renew without my permission & has been acting dubious besides acting very rudely with me. So situation is,

1. I have filed compliant with cbi bank (or rather couple of them as again, I wasn't informed properly nor received proper feedback from bank plus despite calling customer care for almost 7 times, most aren't clear in their instructions as some mentioned different email-ids to complain to one asking to file a complaint with branch itself but I am not sure as branch manager said nothing despite my confrontation with deputy branch manager happening in front of him). Now I will be collecting the FDs physical certificates from branch & wait for resolution as said deputy branch manager is very suspicious(like asking me to file false FIR for missing online FDs physical certificates which I never had & whose online receipts I already have to also blaming me that I didn't tell her they were online while she wasted time & made me do a Rs500 stamp paper indemnity bond with additional documents like death certificate, AadhaPan, etc or saying there will be penalty for breaking autorenewed FDs that strangely got renewed on maturity dates without any prior indication & some things not adding up with new scheme plus the whole confusing me with different instructions & false claims all the time). Though luckily I have recorded the conversation with her first blaming me then backtracking once her fault was found. Also I atleast managed to travel to the distant city for closing state govt pension bank account & it was transferred to my savings account (it's at same problematic home branch) on 3rd May & de-activated my mom's CIF. So as bank resolution will take additional 15days to come(customer care first said 48hrs & now saying different), should I approach branch with resolution & LHC to minimize further problems despite being Nominee.(there's an error in relationship in cbi's savings account where my name & details are there but relationship is daughter instead of son but I already made Rs.100 self-affidavit as per dubious deputy branch manager instructions & all other documents including death claim form).

 

1. Applying for my mom's final ITR is necessary & I have already submitted most financial statements to my CA to compute including the TDS deducted on the FDs since I have been given July-end deadline. Plus as my mother & me spent more than 10lakh+ for her cancer treatment, I am hoping that I will get some deductible relief on her final itr besides tds. The issue is that I am still lacking any legal heirship document that will allow me to register as assessee for filing my mother's ITR. I did ask another bank where I am also nominee for mom's account, for issuing bank letter confirming Nominee details but they refused. However hopefully as I am going to execute a registered gift deed with help of my new lawyer that will mention my mom's unregistered will, I am hoping it allows me to register for the ITR. Otherwise I will have to approach local municipality office for issuing surviving family membeheirship certificate once gift deed allows me to initiate transfer property to my name.

 

1. There are still some untransferred assets such as a SBG linked to my mom's account besides the UTI scheme that's linked to same account(for uti, I already have most paperwork ready except that they asked for legal document that confirms relationship between me and my mother so while I can submit my passport copy though feeling it's better if will gets registered during gift deed process as it's mentioned there). Then there's the care insurance claim associated with same account & taken by bank officials of same bank yet it came to my attention that Care apparently messed my mom's name multiple times while issuing the policy & the claim hasn't processed as policy name & bank account name don't match (it's only a difference in middlename and could have been conveyed to my mom when she approached them multiple times). I did ask my lawyer regarding this & as amount is only 30k, he has asked me not to think about claim as for now as Care doesn't seem sincere as they haven't given it in writing that they will issue claim if I submit LHC/Registered Will with other documents. So while I will get SBG once I close the account & also uti mf scheme (hopefully), I am not sure if I should file a consumer case against Care (as an employee even misbehaved with my mom & the claim situation feels really fraudulent) or just hope that Care would honor the claim once I submit the documents.(they also only mentioned sending documents over email so again felt weird)

 
Overall all these incidents have seriously affected my health and frankly I need a break for myself as I am still struggling with my grieving (I saw my mom die 3 times & the family drama still triggers my cptsd though I am not suicidal or having med issues unlike in Jan besides still unable to take some personal time off due to these commitments). I also apologize if this post ended up too long or having details all over the place as I am still trying to piece together as much information I have as I do have written journal records of the paperwork & events that occurred though I forgot to list down some details here & there due to trying to manage everything by my own.

🪞
Welcome back to the Asylum write-up, where we explore the decade-long slow-motion car crash that is the Emilie Autumn fandom.
Sorry this installment took so long to upload! Just a heads-up, I may take some time to deliver the last one too – these posts take forever to format on Reddit's finicky-ass editor, and my dumb real life is currently keeping me from precious Internet time. Thank you for your patience! You have my word that everyone who pre-ordered the final installment will receive a PERSONAL, HANDWRITTEN letter autographed and illustrated by me, a list of the snacks I consumed while composing this write-up, some exclusive behind-the-scenes secrets, and a pony.
Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4.1 – Part 4.2 Part 5

Places, everyone This is a test Throw your stones Do your damage Your worst, and your best (...) And if I had a dollar For every time I repented the sin And commit the same crime I'd be sitting on top of the world today (“God Help Me”, 2006🎵)

Quick recap of where we left off. First, there were five to ten halcyon years of pleasant and meaningful interactions between EA and her blossoming fanbase, prominently by way of her official forum. Then, circa 2009-2010, EA's online presence shifted towards sudden anger outbursts, ban-hammering, and an increasingly top-down communication style.
This created a sort of primordial rift within the fanbase, between those who supported EA's right to speak her mind and regulate her own fan spaces however she pleased – and those who thought that her reactions were rude and inappropriate (at best), and that even fan spaces should allow for reasonable, non-abusive criticism of the artist.
Between a poorly-handled book release (see Part 3), the controversial (Part 2) or dubiously true (Part 4) contents of said book, and serious shade from various former collaborators (Part 5), more and more fans had pressing thoughts about EA's work ethic and choices. EA attempted damage control through drastic forum rules that made it virtually impossible to voice any “serious” critical opinion. It didn't work, of course: instead of squashing the mutiny, she created a schism.
Critical fans and active haters started congregating on unofficial platforms.

“WITH MUFFINS LIKE THIS, WHO NEEDS ENEMIES?”: TROLL LIKE A GIRL

So here we were, the early 2010s. The official forum (which had about 700 members in 2006, if you recall) was now thousands-strong, reaching just over 12,000 registered users in 2012 – not all of them active, but still. In terms of sheer numbers and content creation, the party was POPPIN'... but increasingly in parts of the Asylum that escaped EA's jurisdiction, such as Tumblr, where they could speak their mind freely.

You play the victim very well You've built your self-indulgent hell You wanted someone to understand you Well, be careful what you wish for, because I do (“I Know Where You Sleep”, 2006🎵)

In one wing of Asylum Tumblr, a smattering of call-out blogs emerged, which laid out EA's various lies, faux pas, shitty takes, and general deep-seated terribleness in detailed timelines and screenshots (or, short of that, long-winded bullet points). While many such blogs framed it as “serious” whistleblowing and did their best to remain as fact-based and neutral as they could, there was some genuine disgust, animosity and creepiness towards EA on that side of Tumblr; for some ex-fans, “exposing the truth” was mostly justify obsessive hatred, prying and verbal abuse. Some, for instance, felt the bizarre need to side with EA's mother in their estrangement. (One user, with the URL “emilyautumnfischkopf”, argued in a serious and down-to-earth tone - but with zero sources - that EA's upbringing had been nothing but peaceful and supportive until she ungratefully kicked her loving family to the curb for no reason at all. They were later revealed 🔍 to have an alternate handle as “eaisalyingcunt”.)
Either way, through these blogs, a number of potential drama bombs that had mostly flown under the radar were dredged up from over the years – some of which were hard to ignore, even for supportive fans. Where to begin?
There was that nonsense in-joke song, captured twice on camera during the 2009 tour (to very little outrage, at the time), crassly called “Manatee Retard”📺. Or EA's scathing response, in print, to a wheelchair user who found it insensitive that she used a bedazzled wheelchair as a prop to do sexy acrobatics on stage. (“Your offence taken at my hard-won self-acceptance proves that I indeed have something to fight against”, she wrote). Spoken word tracks where she made trivializing knock-knock jokes about serious mental illnesses she didn't have, like schizophrenia and OCD. Multiple instances of calling Britney Spears a “bimbo” and a “Hollywood fucked-up”, resentfully claiming that she only shaved her head because she was “hopped up on drugs” and certainly not because she was “bipolar”, a word the press liked to wield as an insult anyway. (“That's almost like calling someone a retard!” Yeah, heaven forbid.) The meanest, most distasteful paragraphs in the book. Basically everything problematic EA had ever said or written.📝 In retrospect, it had been a long time coming, but it was a lot to take in – and certainly more off-putting, even to less emotionally invested fans, than silly lies about her age and last name.
In another wing of Asylum Tumblr, some fans had had it up to here and just wanted to have fun. 🎵 If Plague Rats had learned one valuable lesson from EA, it was how to crack a joke in the face of absurd tragedy – and the general state of the EA fandom certainly warranted a few.
In 2012, Fight Like a Girl was released. After six long years, three of which had been peaceful, the Opheliac era was officially over. The new album and ensuing tour confirmed that the Asylum had entered a process of glamorous Broadway-style militarization. 🎵📺
The mood board was “Roman general meets Vegas showgirl meets Victorian street urchin”.🪞 The color palette was, to naysayers, “musty pink and rotten, stale piss yellow”. 🐀 The keyword was “REVENGE” (through the power of... self-expression! sorority! brutal assault with rusty medical implements!). The chorus of the title song had an intriguing run-on line about getting “revenge on the world, or at least 49% of the people in it” 🎵 – which seemed like an awful lot, and was widely interpreted (to cheers, boos, or uncomfortable sighs) as a misandrist jab at literally all men on Earth.
The show was essentially a demo version of the musical, in that the setlist vaguely reflected the order of events in the story – but prior reading was essential in order to get what the hell was going on on stage. This one Broadway reviewer had not perused the literature before seeing the show 🔍, and hated: the set, the choreography, the skits, the plot, the lyrics, the music, the concept. (Seriously, you should read the review. It's not even my show and I feel like quitting show business.)
Pre-show VIP encounters, now violin-free, were lorded over by EA's new manager🐀, whose official title was “Asylum Headmistress”. (Interesting choice – she sounds fun!) The swag bags were less substantial than before, and the “greet” part of the meet-and-greet was rarely more than a quick hug and photo op.
On Twitter, EA continued to embrace her “I am very badass” fronting attitude...

Often wonder if cyberbullies r aware they’re fucking w/ a girl who’s BFs w/ maker of the SAW films & is marrying a knife-throwing scorpion. (🐀📝)

...and her taste for needlessly inflammatory statements. About an aisle sign in a supermarket:

If this does not infuriate you, then you're a fucking potato.

(Again with the confounding crypto-ableism, EA! 🔍) She also went through a phase of raging against Lady Gaga 📝, who had stolen her idea of using a wheelchair on stage as an able-bodied woman. 🔍 That failed to convince anyone that she wasn't the histrionic diva that haters made her out to be.
Spurred on by EA's rallying cries and “us vs them” mentality, loyalists turned the white-knighting up to 11. On Twitter, some Plague Rats got into cat fights with Lady Gaga's Little Monsters (what a time to be alive). Others tried to balance out the Tumblr negativity with initiatives like “Spreading a Plague of Love” – a “positive-only” confession blog, whose extreme fangirling, comically drastic rules and hyper-defensive tone📝 did not debunk the increasingly popular notion that “true Plague Rats” were a bunch of authoritarian and hopelessly brainwashed fanatics.
EA truthers and other anti-fans started lashing out at anyone who dared express any positive opinion of EA, solidifying claims that the backlash against EA was just a conspiracy of bitter, hysterical bullies.
All this to say: every passing day brought new reasons for fans to get mad at EA and each other, and everyone in the Asylum was in need of a laugh. It's not easy having a good time.🦠
Leading up to Fight Like a Girl and in the years that followed, user-submission-based meme blogs took off, most notably “Spreading a Plague of Lulz / Troll Like a Girl”. A lot of the early submissions were absurdist humor and toothless, cheezburger-Impact memes (a style that was, oddly, already dated at the time). Those often originated in good fun, and from loyal fans, on the official forum. But there was also true snark, satirizing EA's questionable ethics, outrageous claims, and easily spoofed artistic gimmicks. A new slang of Asylumspeak emerged: Glittertits (slight NSFW), GAGA!!, EA Gusta and all its memeface variants, Get outta mah house!, Are You Suffering?, Fight Like A Goat, [Random celebrity] copied EA (a subgenre in its own right), ...
Most of the “trolling” was directed at unrepentant bootlickers and, to a lesser extent, red-in-the-face haters and creeps. Meme blogs would post joke comments under “serious” or gushing submissions on Wayward Victorian Confessions, and taunt loyalist accounts by tagging them in their posts. When a few people complained on WVC that almost all of the Bloody Crumpets to date had been thin white able-bodied women, and a few fans responded by sharing their dream-casts for a more diverse line-up, the blog was flooded for days with confessions that “X should be a Crumpet” (candidates included RuPaul, Mitt Romney, Nicki Minaj, EA's therapist, and the WVC admins). Farcical shenanigans like that.
Ah, but some people will always cross the line, won't they. EA threads popped up on merciless, bully-friendly snark platforms like Lolcow, Pretty Ugly Little Liar, and Encyclopedia Dramatica. Snarkers with a mean streak and obsessive haters mingled in some of the more aggressive, 4-chan-spirited retaliation against EA – which would be called “brigading” in modern parlance. This included flooding EA's Goodreads page with one-star reviews (see part 4), repeatedly editing her Wikipedia page to include her legal name and birth year, and ensuring that Googling said name would bring up current pictures of her.
All of this compounded agitation fragmented the once-united fandom beyond recognition.🦠 Through substantial disagreements among fans, personal bickerings, layers upon layers of inscrutable in-jokes, and cross-platform telephone games, the Asylum morphed into a booby-trapped Escher room.
Satire blogs were taken in earnest. Earnest fan blogs scanned as satire. Memes would get called out as abuse. Appreciation without attached criticism would get mocked as bootlicking. Obvious jokes made by EA would be taken at face value. One divisive confession could trigger days and days of debate, to the point that WVC eventually banned confessions in response to other confessions. New waves of infighting created a confusing web of rival sub-factions🐀, each accusing the others of being toxic, cliquish, and delusional.
The shared fantasy was broken, the collective vision had crumbled, no onez was speaking the same language anymore. Fans would jump down the throat of other fans who held almost identical views about EA, except for that one thing she said or did that one time. Everyone had differing thoughts on what should or shouldn't acceptable to discuss, question, excuse, make fun of.
War is hell.

SCORCHED EARTH SHENANIGANS: HONEY, I SHRUNK THE ASYLUM

Would you tear my castle down Stone by stone And let the wind run through my windows Till there was nothing left But a battered rose? (“Castle Down”, 2003🎵)

Haters vs sycophants is not really the kind of conflict where one side can come out on top (if you're participating, you've already lost). But in the long tug-of-war between “grassroots” and “EA-sponsored” fan spaces, the ultimate winner is obvious – in that the former is gasping in agony, a shriveled husk of its former glory, while the latter... is non-existent. This is due in no small part to EA's tendency, like the Czars of old, to settle conflicts by setting Moscow on fire.🔍)
That's not entirely fair: unlike EA, the czar only did it that once.
By early 2013, as EA was gearing up for her third Fight Like a Girl tour at the end of the year, the official forum was... not as lively as it once had been. Not just because of the stifling rules and disgruntlement towards EA, or because EA herself hadn't really posted anything on there in years; the Internet was also changing, and forums in general were fast becoming passé.
This made it difficult for EA to create a safe space where she could talk to fans, and fans could talk to and about her, in a way she deemed suitable (ie, a space she could gate-keep and regulate enough to keep it completely free from negative criticism). Social media was a minefield; she still posted regularly, but didn't interact very much. So EA and the Headmistress came up with a way to filter out the unbelievers: an official fan club📝, aptly called the “Asylum Army”, with a $100 entry price.
Joining the AA came with a dog tag, a sew-on patch, and a lifetime membership certificate signed by EA and – for some reason – the Headmistress. (Unlike EA's best friend and sound engineer back in the forum's heyday, I don't think fans ever really embraced the FLAG-era manager as part of the Asylum in-group. She came across more as a coordinator / businessperson / adult chaperone, at best.🐀) So, slightly better goodies than you'd get by joining the other AA 🔍 ... but not by much. The main appeal was that members would have access to exclusive content, special merch, giveaways, early bird tickets for future shows, and regular video chats with EA.
The concept itself drew a fair amount of criticism, as you can imagine. Between the name🐀, the price, and the inherent gatekeeping of a pay-to-join fanclub, many balked at the monetizing of a concept that had once (like, three years back) been significantly more DIY, grassroots, and inclusive. 📝🐀
Then again, many also longed for a positive, drama-free space where fans could just be fans. And while the creation of the AA was generally recognized as a quick cashgrab, a lot of people were surprisingly cool with it. EA was trying to finance her dream musical, after all – although a number of fans wished she had gone about raising funds in a less sketchy way.
So around 400 fans shelled out (which, according to the Headmistress📝, “basically cover[ed] the cost of running the fanclub itself – keeping the database up, website, etc.”). Enough for a close-knit, but sizable community. But already, there was a conflict of interest: a high fanclub entry fee essentially demands that you pledge loyalty to the artist over loyalty to your fellow fans, who wish to join but can't afford to. Sharing, caring, and ensuring no one felt left out were some of the more positive values cultivated in the fandom... but leaking exclusive content would surely piss off other paying members🐀, and make EA feel betrayed all over again. (And she had barely just started to mellow out on social media!)
...But then again, this is the internet. After the first month of secret AA drops (lyric sheets, some photoshoot outtakes – nothing too juicy, really), there were, yes, some leaks. EA was predictably miffed, and retaliated by... ghosting the fanclub for weeks at a time in its first few months of existence (great look!). She eventually found the “solution” to her problem, by providing something you couldn't right-click-save (and which had been part of the promised perks to begin with): live interaction.
Over webcam, she was her usual in-person bubbly, charming, funny self. Everyone seemingly had a good time during the fanclub video chat, and this gave people faith and hope.
There were a few more events, giveaways, etc. As promised, ahead of the fall 2013 tour (the last one to date, it would turn out), AA members got priority access to show tickets and VIP bundles. The latter were much pricier than before, and only included soundcheck, a photo-op, and three goodies: a tin of loose-leaf tea, a signed printer-paper setlist, and a small flag that said “F.L.A.G.”.🔍 Some stuff continued to leak – but, as some of the outlaws pointed out (scroll down to the Disqus comments), they were mostly relaying information that was relevant to the entire fanbase, such as updates about ongoing projects (the dragged-out recording of the audiobook, for one).
In early 2014, lifetime memberships were closed, and replaced with monthly, quarterly and yearly subscription tiers. Bizarrely, you ended up paying $3 more per month if you bought a $99 yearly subscription📝 – but it did include the patch, dog tag, and piece of paper!

Sometimes I kind of want to be part of the cool kids and register to the Asylum Army. Then I remember how it came about, what you could get for the same price a couple years ago, how the whole thing was and is handled, and that I won’t support any of this bullshit. (And then I roll around naked in all the money I’m saving.) (🐀)

Still, a number of fans rejoiced at the affordable monthly option, and joined – if not for the exclusive content and merch (which were... okay, but not much to write home about), then for the friendly, drama-free exchanges with an artist they actually did love, in spite of all the frustration.
For the still-too-poor or still-undecided, there was always the forum! It wasn't as active as it used to be, but a few die-hards still managed to keep the lights on... until, inevitably, Someone Did Something and Ruined Everything. (Once again: EA's wrath is spectacular, but rarely completely unprovoked.) The incident features one notable figure in the Asylum community. Let's call him the Collector.
OK, so maybe you remember the meme I linked to in Part 4, with Christian Grey and the ginormous EA hoard. Well, that's the Collector's collection. The “Violin” promo that I called the "Holy Grail of the fandom" in the same paragraph? Also his. The handwritten lyrics that went for $940? Guess who won that auction. Over the years, the Collector had probably spent five figures on EA merch and shows, and although that fact was a little unsettling, he was a very active, easy-going, and generally well-liked fixture of the fandom.
One day in 2012, shortly after the Headmistress had replaced EA's old Chicago BFF as main forum admin, the Collector's account got banned or restricted over something dumb. When the ban wasn't lifted as quickly as he hoped, he took it... the way one takes things when one is unhealthily invested: he started spamming Headmistress and the mod team with increasingly rambling and abusive emails (lost to time, probably for the best). When that didn't work quickly enough, he tried a different route.
One of the many auctions that the Collector had won, some years prior, was EA's old iPod Touch📝 – which contained all of her favorite tunes and, buried somewhere in the data cache... a phone number. Which the Collector tried calling. And wouldn't you know it: EA picked up. She congratulated him on his sleuthing skills, listened patiently as he made his case, apologized for any distress caused by the unfair account restriction, and then they got married.
Kidding! She freaked the fuck out, hung up, and banned him for life from the forum and all EA shows and events.
After his ban, the Collector allegedly still tried to attend at least one VIP pre-show (one source in the comments says he was allowed to buy some merch, refunded for his ticket, and escorted out). He joined the Reform forum to bitch about EA and try to rally people to his cause, possibly made revenge posts about her on darker snark forums, and continued to hound the Asylum mod team. So in June 2014, EA came up with a radical and unexpected fix to the Collector problem.

The official Asylum Fan Forum has been shut down permanently. I have personally paid thousands of dollars each year to keep the forum safe and secure for you ... Unfortunately, the forum has not been kept safe and secure for me, a truth which disappoints me greatly, instead becoming a place where people who have physically threatened myself and my staff prey upon forum members, pressuring them to contact me and my staff on their behalf. If the gullible wish to humor my stalkers (who live in their parent’s basement at age 30 something) and thus put me in danger, they may do it on their own dime. They may also fuck off, because stupidity can kill, and I won’t be your victim. To those who enjoyed the forum, you know who to thank for its closure. (“On the closing of the Asylum Forum”)

Voilà! This is how a decade-long archive of shared history ends: not with a bang, but with a dirty delete and a sod-off communiqué.
The obliteration of the forum took everyone by surprise...

I was actually on the forum when it was taken down. I was navigating between posts and when I went to click on a different board, an error message came up. I honestly cried a little, I'm not ashamed to say. (WVC admin on Reddit, 2024)

...and I do mean everyone:

Chicago BFF / ex-admin, the next morning: Whoa, EA forum shut down? Ex-mod: It turns out that if someone spends enough years actively “waging war” to destroy what they can’t have, eventually they’ll be successful. * eye roll * Not even mods got prior warning. Just all the sudden, poof, gone. BFF: Really? She did not let the moderators know?! This is sounding worse and worse. Uggh. I’m so sorry. Such a loss. (...) Ok, threats are serious, but why not just put it in archive mode so no one can post? (...) Sad. I shall light a candle in the forum's honor. (Facebook posts; scroll down for screenshots)

It was a gut punch, especially for people who had poured countless hours into the community, or could have used some prior warning to save years of their own writing from the role-playing threads. One last chance to take a look around the place that had meant so much to so many.

From the wording of the announcement of closing the forum and a number of other things, it sometimes seems like EA doesn't like her fans much. :/ (🐀)

Three months after the forum was nuked, Battered Rose (a venerable EA fansite, which had been around since the Enchant era and had one of the most complete EA galleries online) announced that it was shutting down too.📝 The admin, who had also been a long-time forum mod, cited a lack of “time, energy, passion, or money” to keep the website going... and being upset at the sudden disappearance of the forum. It was, truly, the end of an era for the Asylum.
...Well, no point in living in the past. For those who could afford it, and still wanted to talk to/about EA after that (not everyone did 🐀), there was always the Asylum Army fanclub!
Over the summer of 2014, EA held regular live chats and Q&A's, and... many attendees really enjoyed them, and thought the AA was well worth the money after all. She also quietly parted ways with the much poo-pooed Headmistress around that time.

Just spent over 4 hours giggling, drinking tea and playing guessing games in chat with EA and other Asylum Army members ... No griping, no downers, just lots of fun. I think I like the way the ‘new fandom’ is going and now I’m really glad I finally decided to join the Army. (September 4, 2014🐀; Battered Rose had closed the day before)

The forum was lost forever, but perhaps that was a chance for a fresh start. Could this fanclub thing really be the Asylum Renaissance that fans had been longing for?

...I have come today to a very difficult but necessary decision, and that is to discontinue the Emilie Autumn Official Fanclub. The site itself, and the community chatroom, will remain open to you indefinitely, but I will no longer be making updates to the site. (Newsletter, September 8, 2014📝)

...Never mind, then.
Turns out the fanclub had been the Headmistress' idea all along. EA had been reluctant from the start, and although she really enjoyed the live chats with a safe community of people “who are there for the right reasons”, she couldn't overcome her fundamental discomfort with the concept. Lifetime and regular members would receive a bunch of digital downloads and a -35% coupon on the Asylum Emporium for their troubles. EA said she would definitely pop back once in a while for live chats, for free, just for fun, but to my knowledge, she never did.
And so the most devoted fans were left standing in the rain...

She is happy, she made it. She is fulfilling her dreams, found love and happiness after all the pain. I understand that she now doesn’t need “us” anymore ... That doesn’t change the fact she broke my heart with taking the Asylum Army and the forum from me. Yet, I am happy for her. (🐀)

...while naysayers pointed and laughed, Nelson-style.🦠

I don’t feel sorry at all for the people that paid for the Asylum Army fan club. Most of them knew that EA is an atrocious business woman and has broken many promises before. In fact, I laugh at them. They seriously thought that EA would actually stay consistent with this? (🐀)

EVERYTHING MUST GO: THE ASYLUM WHOLESALE

EA fans were left without an “official” home for about three years. This gave them plenty of time to be annoyed at EA for: not releasing the audiobook on time, not materializing any new project for a while... and the new sin of peddling random, ridiculously marked-up AliBaba jewelry as “merch” on her official store. Think faux-antique cameo pendants and $30 Big Ben rings (...because the Asylum story is set in London, get it?).

The whole accessories section looks like a tacky overpriced English souvenir shop. (🐀)

The fanbase lost a lost of steam in those in-between years, because there wasn't much to stick around for. As evidenced by the positive reception of the AA live chats, even in the midst of unresolved drama, out-loud interactions in a friendly environment have always been EA's saving grace. Considering the amount of online hate, there are shockingly few accounts of bad IRL encounters with EA: most people say that in live conversation, she comes across as a fun, warm, and genuinely sweet person. Some report that their negative opinion shifted after meeting her.
But there were no chats or live shows anymore. There was only social media, where she ignored questions and vague-posted about overdue projects – and the newsletter📝, which was all saccharine love-bombing to promote bland dropshipped trinkets. For fans who remembered the handcrafted merch (and two-way communication) of the early years, it was a bitter pill to swallow.

CONTINUED IN COMMENTS

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Record temperatures, record migration, record emissions, record displacement, record PFAS……start building an ark.
Last Week in Collapse: May 12-18, 2024
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 125th newsletter! You can find the May 5-11 edition here if you missed it last week. You can also receive these posts (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox with Substack.
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Flash flooding in northern Afghanistan killed 300+ people and destroyed 1,000+ homes. Hundreds of thousands of others have been affected. Last month, similar floods in the region killed 70+. Four died in Texas storms last week as well.
Venezuela is suffering from record wildfires, which so far this year have burned about 5M acres—almost the size of Sardinia. Some experts think indigenous people started the blaze as an attempt at forest clearance, which quickly got out of hand. “Institutional failures” compounded the disaster when the ailing government responded with an inadequate number of poorly equipped firefighters. Another study from last week examined the impact of wildfires on soil health.
Flooding and “cold lava” killed 50+ in Indonesia, injuring dozens and displacing several thousand. Cold lava is a mixture of water and rocks tumbling down the side of a volcano. Meanwhile, an actual volcano erupted in Indonesia, sending smoke & ash 5000m high; further eruptions are possible soon.
The Swiss Re Institute published a 37-page report last week about natural disasters in 2023—and how much damage, in USD, they caused. The largest catastrophe was the February 7.8 earthquake in Türkiye & Syria, which killed 59,000+ people and caused $163B+ in damage. The report is full of interesting graphics & data about natural disasters.

“Last year, economic losses from natural catastrophes reached USD 280 billion, meaning that 62% of the global losses were uninsured….the insured losses surpassed USD 100 billion for the fourth consecutive year….annual insured losses will grow by 5–7% over the long term…today’s insured losses could double in 10 years….There were 142 insured-loss inducing catastrophes in 2023, a new record. Most were of medium severity, which we define as events resulting in losses of USD 1–5 billion….Over the last 30 years, we estimate that natural catastrophe insured losses have grown by 3 percentage points more annually than the global economy (in inflation adjusted terms)...”

Flooding and heat waves are impacting Brazil’s oranges, responsible for about 70% of the world’s supply. One food analysts declared that the “era of cheap food is over”—in the UK, at least. That may be one reason why UK residents took record food bank packages last year. Madagascar is struggling to adapt to a future with far less rainfall.
France is growing more concerned about a dam on Lake Geneva, controlled exclusively by Switzerland. The Rhône River, which begins in Switzerland and flows south through France, is shrinking in summers as climate change melts Switzerland’s remaining glaciers.
The Tonlé San River has been dammed in Vietnam, lowering the level in Cambodia and sometimes drying the river downstream entirely. Meanwhile, China’s lychee harvest is getting blasted by rain, impacting the world’s largest source of lychee. And, once again, Saudi Arabia is suffering flooding in its inland regions. 7 dead in historic flooding in Iran.
The eminent climate scientist James Hansen posted that, since “human-made aerosols and their cooling effect are in decline,” the cooling effect of La Niña will be counterbalanced by these rising temperatures. He also identifies a “large anomaly of increased absorbed solar radiation at midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere” responsible for rising temperatures there. CO2 levels are rising faster today than they have at any point in the previous 50,000 years…and a study of millennia-old trees determined last summer was the hottest worldwide in 2,000+ years…
Record nighttime May temperatures were tied in the Philippines and Vietnam. A couple Indonesian cities broke records for May temperatures. And a number of southern African states saw more records drop. And Toronto saw a record tied for the number of days reaching 14 °C (57 °F). A heat wave has returned to Bangladesh. Flooding in Cali (pop: 2.9M), Colombia.
The University of Washington was ordered to stop a geoengineering project that scientists sere conducting from the deck of a decommissioned aircraft carrier. The experiment ejected aerosolized saltwater in an attempt to reflect solar radiation. A comparative study in Nature Communications of a number of carbon pricing found that, yes, carbon pricing does work to reduce the total CO2 emitted.
It’s that time of the year again. Wildfires in Canada grow, some of which are moving towards the tar sands—forcing thousands to evacuate. 39 of the total nation’s blazes are “out of control,” resulting in air quality alerts in the United States. Meanwhile, across the Caribbean, water shortages have become the new normal, and residents (and tourists) are finding their old consumption habits hard to change. St. Lucia has declared a water emergency. In Myanmar, water shortages worsen, particularly as related to the spiraling conflict.
At least ⅛ of Europeans live in a place at risk of extreme flooding—so says a 175-page report from the European Environment Agency posted on Wednesday. The number of people living in flood-risk coastal areas in the EU & UK is expected to jump 24% by 2050. The graphics-packed report also considers how flooding will impact healthcare facilities, mental health, wastewater treatment plants, the spread of disease, cyanobacteria, permafrost thaw, and much else.

“Europe has seen devastating floods following record rainfall, droughts of magnitudes not experienced in hundreds of years, continuing sea level rise, and increasing lake and sea temperatures….permanent water stress already affects 30% of people in southern Europe….since 2018, more than half of Europe has been impacted by extreme drought conditions….Climate change is expected to increase mercury bioaccumulation in the marine food chain due to rising ocean temperatures, ocean acidification and permafrost thawing….Depression, anxiety and PTSD may persist for years after a flooding event….Under the changing climate, northern Europe is becoming wetter in general, but drier in summer. Southern Europe is becoming drier, especially in winter. For central-eastern and western Europe, the trend is less clear…” -selections from the report

Milan suffered flooding last week, the worst May flooding in 170 years. Early spring in the UK has disrupted migratory bird species and their usual patterns.
A 74-page working paper which is not yet peer-reviewed claims that earlier estimates for how much GDP would be impacted by another 1 °C temperature rise is way less than it would be in actuality. The paper claims the real cost (in USD) is about 6x greater. They claim “global temperature has much more pronounced impacts on economic activity than local temperature” and that extreme weather is mostly behind the projected decline in productivity.
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Epidemiologists are worried about how climate change in Africa may extend the life of disease-bearers like ticks and mosquitoes. Other epidemiologists are worried about how cattle may become a permanent reservoir for H5N1. Growing traced of bird flu have been found in wastewater testing in the U.S., but investigators think it may be runoff from infected dairy farms.
Obesity, high blood sugar, and high blood pressure rates today globally are 50% higher than in 2000—though researchers claim that air pollution still poses a larger threat. Of a study participants in Hawai’i, 75% had respiratory issues, probably from the Maui wildfires last year.
The 2024 World Migration Report is out, and its 384 pages are not as apocalyptic as one might think. However, internally displaced people are at their all-time highest. India, Mexico, Russia, China, and Syria lead the world in emigrants; another document contains the definitions for who exactly constitutes a migrant. Unfortunately much of the data relied upon ends in 2022. Data from this year, not included in the above report, indicates a 40% jump in traffic through the Darien Gap compared to the same time period in 2023.

“The last two years saw major migration and displacement events that have caused great hardship and trauma, as well as loss of life….There have also been large-scale displacements triggered by climate- and weather-related disasters in many parts of the world in 2022 and 2023, including in Pakistan, the Philippines, China, India, Bangladesh, Brazil and Colombia….disinformation tactics are increasingly being used by nefarious actors with negative impacts on public, political and social media discourse on migration….Forced displacement is the highest on record in the modern era…overconsumption and overproduction linked to unsustainable economic growth, resource depletion and biodiversity collapse, as well as ongoing climate change (including global heating) are continuing to grip the world….the risk of further conflict has not been higher in decades, as military spending reached a new record high of USD 2,240 billion in 2022…” -excerpts from the introduction

Another report, focusing on internal displacement, came out last week; its 69 pages show a cross-section of about 47M people displaced by natural disasters (56%) or armed conflict (44%). Most of the disasters were storms & flooding, and most of the conflicts were civil wars of some form. This report also provides detailed region-by-region analyses—with sub-Saharan Africa accounting for 46% of global IDPs.

“Conflict and violence triggered 13.5 million movements, the highest figure for the past 15 years….Disasters and conflict are presented as different triggers, but their impacts can overlap, often leading to repeated and/ or protracted displacement….Drought triggered 331,000 displacements in Somalia….Floods triggered 550,000 displacements in Ethiopia….Conflict and violence triggered 3.8 million displacements in DRC in 2023, a slight fall from the record four million in 2022, but still the second-highest figure globally after Sudan….nearly two-thirds of the internal displacements recorded in 2023 originated from Khartoum state. More than 39 per cent of the state's inhabitants were forced to flee, leaving entire neighbourhoods empty….Criminal and communal violence triggered nearly three-quarters of Nigeria's 291,000 conflict displacements….” -selections from the spotlight on sub-Saharan Africa

Experts are concerned about the mental health impacts that climate change has on our minds. Hotter temperatures reportedly increase depression & aggression. Wildfires and storms can cause PTSD. Workers feel stress and desperation as their usual industries are impacted. And air pollution influences ordinary brain processes in many ways.
Some analysts believe “Peak China” may be over, signaling a period of economic tapering-off, as well as a growing militancy. Increasing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are continuing to separate the two economies. The Netherlands finally formed a provisional government, though its proposed immigration & farming policies have set it at odds with the EU.
The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, released a 46-page report on potential climate risks to the banking system’s resilience. As far as I understood, most of the risk lies in extreme weather events and the risk to insurance agencies.
Part of southeast England experienced an outbreak of Cryptosporidium, a diarrhea & vomiting illness, highly contagious, which can last weeks. At least 22 cases have been reported. Meanwhile, the CDC is issuing warnings about the more dangerous strain of monkeypox circulating in the DRC, although cases are currently limited to Africa.
North Carolina’s Senate voted to ban mask-wearing last week, under the reasoning that it would make police identification of protestors difficult. An fMRI study found lasting neurological changes in COVID survivors; they “had significantly higher cognitive complaints of mental fatigue and cognitive failure….even two years after recovering.” Experts say a summer rise in COVID cases is coming to the United States.
A study on The Canadian/American Great Lakes found that PFAS levels are increasing in the 3 largest lakes (Superior, Huron, and Michigan), while decreasing in the other two (Erie, Ontario). The study also found that precipitation is the primary means by which the Lakes are accumulating PFAS, since the chemicals are small & stable enough to move through the water cycle. Meanwhile, in England’s Lake District, a telecom failure resulted in raw sewage being pumped into England’s largest and most famous lake, Windermere, on-and-off for 10 hours; and a major British water CEO took a $4M USD pay package last year. And a look into the Chicago River’s health found that microplastics & trash are endangering health & biodiversity.
——————————
An assassination attempt by a lone wolf on Slovakia’s PM left him in critical condition, but likely to survive. 11 civilians were slain by cartel fighters in a few battles in Mexico. Violence continues to spiral out of control in Goma, DRC.
In Haiti, everything worsens indefinitely. Guns have reportedly entered from Florida, a phenomenon which officials call an “iron river.” Police have been put on the defensive against the growing might of the gang warlords.
A brawl broke out in Taiwan’s parliament. An Iranian plot was allegedly foiled to smuggle weapons into Jordan to destabilize the pro-U.S. regime.
Dozens more died in Sudan from escalating violence around Darfur. People are warning about “a disaster on top of a disaster” and the possibility of Sudan splitting apart. Others have called it “hell on earth” as 1,000+ refugees cross the Chad border every day. Disease and malnutrition are growing, while famine encroaches upon 9M helpless victims of the conflict—but the world’s attention is elsewhere.
The U.S. Army Engineers completed constructing the pier in Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid. Some 600,000 Gazans have been displaced from Rafah already, and fighting has escalated against Hamas militants in northern Gaza.
Taliban forces skirmished with Pakistani soldiers for about 90 minutes last week. Taliban attacks in Pakistan, and counterattacks have resulted in a kind of ambient disruption for the rocky border zone.
Violent protests—and counteroperations—are continuing in New Caledonia (pop: 270,000), a Pacific island part of overseas France. The riots, which have killed 6 people so far, began after metropolitan France proposed a plan to expand voting rights beyond indigenous residents. A state of emergency has been declared amid worries about a spiral of violence taking hold.
As the Sahel dries out, experts are concerned about the links to rising terrorism in the region. The Sahel accounts for over 40% of global terrorism deaths—according to the analysts’ understanding of “terrorism.” Mali in particular has reportedly become home to 41 new, different non-state armed groups (NSAGs) since 2007. A contested election in Chad resulted in the consolidation of the interim leader’s power.

“If governments are continually unable to solve regional issues, the people will be at the whim of any terror group that has a basic organization. It serves these groups’ interests to promote insecurity where they can and create security where they want. A “hearts and minds” campaign in the Sahel could lead to long-term and locally supported insurgencies in a land that is currently rife with civil strife.” -from the article

Some wargamers concluded that a Trump victory in 2020 would spell the end of NATO, or at least the end of its utility. Vladimir Putin replaced his minister of defense with a top economic advisor, just before going to Beijing to reaffirm their friendship with “no limits.” Some say Putin is planning on a forever war. Some say NATO is gearing up for one, too.
Russia made several gains in the suburbs of Kharkiv, seizing several settlements which some analysts doubt they will hold. Putin claims they aren’t really trying to take Kharkiv anyway… Russia also made small progress in the Donbas—although they suffered their largest one-day casualties since the start of the war. The U.S. allocated another $2B to hasten the delivery of weapons to the front lines. The next weeks will be crucial on the front. Switzerland has invited 160+ nations to send delegates to a peace summit intended to design a path to making peace in this War.
——————————
Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-Brazil’s flooding was really, really bad, judging from this post and its accompanying images. Across just one of Brazil’s 26 states, 600,000+ people have been made homeless, 100+ have died, and the storm season isn’t over yet. Some of the flooding isn’t expected to subside for another month.
-How specifically might climate change make humanity extinct? This thread crowdsources a number of plausible ways, from ordinary famines to nuclear war and even a massive deoxygenation process. I tend to think it will be a consequence of an eventual nuclear exchange, followed by extended famine and disease.
Got any feedback, questions, comments, complaints, upvotes, doom prophets to follow, hugelkultur guides, directions to off-grid bunkers, ark schematics, etc.? Check out the Last Week in Collapse SubStack if you don’t want to check collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to your (or someone else’s) email inbox every weekend. What did I forget this week?

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking
USA Showtimes As of May 17
Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)
BoxOfficeReport Previews
DOMESTIC PRESALES
Furiosa Thursday Comp assuming $5M for keysersoze123: $4.49M

• abracadabra1998 ($5.46M Thursday comp. GxK obviously really propping the average up but for now I could see that settling at around $5 Million, still good pace! (May 12). Really good stuff in this market (May 9). Reallyyyyyy good day 1 here. I want to note that: NO I do NOT think preview numbers will be that high; it's just highlighting the fact that this is likely a movie that will be running hot in my market, as cinephile blockbusters usually do. Next update I will have T-14 comps, which will be a lot lower due to the short release window (May 8).)
  
• AniNate (Encouraging to see the weekend fill out a bit. Been seeing a lot of promotion during the basketball playoffs so general awareness has to be getting there now. (May 15). Skimmed through ThuFri and Valley View (Cleveland vicinity) has sold roughly 60 Furiosa tix so far while Tinseltown (Canton) has sold 40. I'm guessing the upfront audience does lean more toward the urban/cosmopolitan sensibilities (May 9). Presales show there's definitely some hype for this. Regal gonna irritate trackers again, offering no upcharge IMAX for Furiosa (May 8).)
  
• Charlie Jatinder ($3.05M Thursday comp.)
  
• el sid ($5.8M average Thursday comp (without Exorcist 2) (May 12). Furiosa continues its strong performance in "my" theaters. The movie yesterday had already 1.310 sold tickets (for Thursday, May 23). Up 15% in ca. 24 hours which isn't bad at all after the first rush. Already comfortably in front of The Fall Guy's final sales (it had 1.071 counted on Thursday for Thursday) and almost on par with Civil War's final sales (1.357) and also the Apes finally had not more than 1.657 sold tickets in my theaters (May 11). I also can't complain about Furiosa's presales in my theaters, not at all. Already 1,138 sold tickets (in all of "my" 7 theaters) for May 23. 14 days left. Promising start. Civil War on Thursday of the release week for Thursday had 1,357 sold tickets and The Fall Guy finally had 1,071 sold tickets (May 9).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex ($3.94M Thursday comp.)
  
• keysersoze123 (Definitely chugging along. I am feeling good about 5m+ previews (May 15). It has way stronger sales than Garfield and that is expected. I am thinking of 5m previews for now (May 14). I think this is a solid OD presales. With a short PS window its probably looking at 5m+ previews (May 9).)
  
• TheFlatLannister ($4.71M Thursday comp. Second straight day of weak growth. Not a great sign (May 18). First meh day since presales started (May 17). Keeps climbing at a strong pace (May 11). This continues to grow at an excellent rate (May 10). Really strong day 2. The short presales is for sure a factor (May 9). Not seeing much of a breakout. Still pretty solid start to presales (May 8).)
  
• vafrow ($3.5M Thursday comp. A bit of a step back today (May 18). It's starting to heat up (May 17). Comps are showing as steady since the last update, but it actually dipped quite a bit this week before rebounding today. Advance ticket buying has been so off in this market recently for some reason. Holding pace with Apes is a good sign (May 16). It had a good day (May 12). Mediocre day 2 (May 10). Not the hottest start. IMAX is the format of choice though, so, ATP will be high (May 9).)
  
• YM! (Southeast Wisconsin: Pretty solid I guess for Furiosa. Seems that most of it's business is in the Marcus Theaters in Mequon/Waukesha so not really expecting much a diverse showing but there seems to be a fanbase around it. Feel good in everyone's 4.5-5M previews range (May 17).)
  

Hit Man

• vafrow (Getting a theatrical release up here in Canada, and early signs are that it might get a pretty decent screen count. Not super wide or anything, but a pretty decent amount for a weekend that has a lot of other releases (May 14).)

The Garfield Movie Thursday / EA+Thursday Comp: $1.22M/$1.97M

• abracadabra1998 ($0.72M EA comp and $1.19M Thursday comp. The two comps that are most helpful, Wish and Trolls (not PLF, EA on a weekend, family movies) are both pointing to a lot lower than average, so I'm inclined to give those a lot more weight. I'm thinking $500-600k for EA (May 18). Still not really accelerating, and the EA is falling against comps (May 12). Good EA numbers, but many of these comps were PLF-only EA, which this is not, so I think the ATP will be quite lower and that should be adjusted for (May 9).)
  
• AniNate (EA screenings are pretty filled to the brim here now for what that's worth. Maybe a surge in family demand will present itself later next week (May 17). EA sales look decent now, but this does feel rather weak compared to the IF presales. Not 100% certain what's going on here but based on this I buy the trades' opening estimates over the forum vibes (May 15). I definitely haven't seen as much of a rush here with Garfield as with IF (May 11).)
  
• el sid (The very even sales are a good sign (May 7). For Sunday, May 19, I can already report that also in my theaters it looks very good for Garfield. They will for sure add shows soon. It has so far only 1 show/theater and the shows are almost sold out, between 1 and 4 seats are still available. So my guess still is that this movie if it's not totally bad (and first reviews here were quite positive) will become a (big) hit. Seems not much on Thursday but it's a step in the right direction (May 6).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex ($0.91M EA comp and $1.11M Thursday comp. Lightyear probably the best comp here size-wise for Early Access, probably ends around 750-800k (May 18).)
  
• keysersoze123 (4 days later. Almost no pace so far. Sunday shows are near sellout and so limited growth. Previews are like 35% of Panda 4 and Friday is under 1/3rd. That said this will under index in MTC1 as Panda also did that. Still struggling to see this as a breakout. Looking at the current state, it looks like half of IF as well !!! Of course that had Reynolds and did not finish that great (May 17). Its definitely weaker than even Elemental. That said these movies tend to finish strong and so I am not writing it off so early. Just that the long PS window is irrelevant for them. They could rather start presales like a week before release and it would be all the same. Meh. We have to wait until next week to gauge where its going to finish. It has very low ATP as well and actual would be even lower as its going to see tons of kids tickets (May 14). Early shows are regular digital shows at 1PM this sunday. So ATP will be very low. I think 500k ish at best. Preview let us see how things go in the final week. Presales at this point are almost non existent (May 13).)
  
• TheFlatLannister ($2.18M Thursday comp. Not much movement at all in the past week. Probably heading to $2M+ (May 17).)
  
• vafrow ($0.4M Thursday comp. Comps don't paint a pretty picture though. EA shows are doing okay (May 11). Still no sales for my core sample for previews. But I did the larger sweep, which shows the interest right now is the Sunday early access shows. Looking at sales patterns, it's mainly blocks of 3/4 tickets, so likely families grabbing some. It's worth noting that the May holiday in Canada is the weekend of May 17-20th, not the weekend after with Memorial Day. I can see families prioritizing getting out the holiday weekend when they have more time (May 4).)
  
• YM! (The combined previews total for Garfield is 35 tickets with 23 tickets coming from EA, which is pretty solid. Still thinking around 2-2.75m previews with EA as while not as widespread, the showings seem like they’re filling up nicely. Think Garfield does about the same as IF though OW as due to the likely lower ATP Keyser hinted at iirc and seemingly little screen space with no PLFs. Meh, kids animation doesn't really make much notion until the Monday for release and Garfield seems indicative of that. Thinking the 1.5-2M Thursday previews range folks were spitting out makes sense. Nothing screams breakout though and the fact it's getting one screen, maybe two at most for previews makes me feel like OW might be similar to IF (May 17).)
  

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Thursday / EA+Thursday comp: $3.64M/$5.30M

• abracadabra1998 ($3.78M Thursday comp. These numbers are from last Thursday, as per my post this morning. This is a more walk-up movie a la Aquaman or Apes so I think it's a pretty good start (May 18). Pretty good start for it honestly (May 16).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex ($5.30M EA+Thursday comp.)
  
• TheFlatLannister ($3.68M Thursday comp. Well, this is a pretty good start (May 17).)
  
• YM! (Again, another solid start-ish. I expect Bad Boys to have the most diverse audience. Can't really predict much on previews but I am feeling confident in the 55-60m OW range for the past few weeks (May 17).)
  
• vafrow ($3.45M Thursday comp. Comps are not the greatest. One, surprisingly hard to find a comparable film with similar start on sales. Plus, I think ticket buying patterns have changed pretty drastically in my market over the last few months. There's very little up front sales compared to late 2023. Dune was the exception (May 17).)
  

The Lord of the Rings Extended Edition Re-Releases (June 8-10)

• BoxOfficePro (Fathom Events has also announced that select Regal Cinemas will present the films in 4DX on June 22/23/24 for Fellowship/Towers/Return respectively (May 14).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex (Up to ~1,400 shows now with new locations picking it up and others adding a second showing. LotR1 has sold 831 seats OD, LotR2 sold 715 seats OD, and LotR3 sold 735 seats OD. For comparison, Phantom Menace didn't break 800 tickets until T-3 and we're still over a month out. JW3 comp is currently around 9m (it was at 1,670 tickets sold at this point!) (May 6).)
  

Inside Out 2 Average Thursday Comp: $7.66M

• abracadabra1998 ($3.67M Thursday comp. Holy numbers of shows and seats! Multiplexes are really expecting a lot here. Sales off the bat not amazing here sadly, but we shall see where it goes (May 15).)
  
• AniNate (It is encouraging that Canton is already giving me something to work with with 12 Thursday preview sales. Same number for Fri-Sun. I do see nine sales for first Thursday at Canton now and I think that's a pretty solid start (May 15).)
  
• charlie Jatinder ($11.37M Thursday comp at MTC2.)
  
• katnisscinnaplex ($6.21M Thursday comp. Early sales just haven't been there lately except for the extreme fans. $12.27M Mario comp (May 18). Already at 180 shows for previews in my areas and still has a few theaters left to post. For comparison, Godzilla x Kong finished with 197, Kingdom of Apes 190, and Kung Fu Panda 205 (May 14).)
  
• keysersoze123 (At least the show counts show Plexes are expecting a big OW. I dont remember when we last had a animation movie start with so many shows. I wont count Mario as that was a fan driven movie. Definitely not great presales but this is not a fan driven movie. Let us see where things are in the final week (May 15). Too early to judge presales as ticket sales just started early this morning. Families dont book tickets on weekday mornings. Wait until evening today to judge it. From a release perspective its way bigger than all animation movies seen recently including Panda 4. Easily the biggest I have seen in a long time. Only movie which is not comparable is Mario but that was not just a family flick (May 14).)
  
• Porthos (VERY BAD COMPS: $8.06M Thursday comp. What a strange pre-sale pattern. Threw in Shazam 2 and Barbie simply due to having nothing suitable at T-27, and I wanted something that was backloaded in pre-sales. Was prepared to make a smart-aleck comment about the unsuitability of the pre-sale pattern of Barbie, but after today's update... Okay, yeah. Still no. But what a weird pattern. Was there some sort of promo that dropped today that I'm not aware of? Either way, just a great day (for this type of movie at this point in pre-sales) (May 17). Fairly strong day today, actually. Was concentrated at a couple of theaters (including a small group sale at one showing), but still, sales are sales (May 16). I really do not have good comps for this movie. Like, at all. Especially for D1. With that in mind, I did some digging and did manage to get the Elemental D1 numbers out of the old Tracking thread: IO2 = 5.45946x Elemental on D1 [13.10m]. Now will Inside Out 2 be as backloaded as Elemental? Well it's tough to literally sell 5.5x times the amount of tickets on the final couple of days that Elemental did, so perhaps not. But it does show how fracking backloaded purely kids animation is. Anyway, this is 30 days out and it isn't a CBM film (like AtSV) or CBM-adjacent film (like Incredibles 2). The Sonic 2 comp is perhaps a little concerning. On the other hand, nearly a weeks more of pre-sales so not exactly a great comp. 3.5% of presales are 3D and 40.1% are PLF (May 15). On the Saturday of release weekend (ie NOT EA) there is a special event screening for IO2: INSIDE OUT 2: FUNKO FAMILY EVENT! (2024) Sat June 15th. Might boost the OW slightly, depending on how wide this event is and how much more these tickets will presumably cost (May 11).)
  
• TheFlatLannister ($8.97M Thursday comp. Definitely the biggest rollout in showings since I've started tracking Florida. Bigger than even Dune 2 and it's only T-26 (May 18). This is a super super strong day 2. Probably just Orlando overindexing, but yeah starting to lean towards something big brewing. Florida presales are somehow even crazier. Sold 2357 seats and is getting a blockbuster rollout in terms of showing allocations. Kung Fu panda comp day 2: gives me $8.50M (May 15). Well, I can't really tell if this is a breakout or not yet. Looks very good especially in the first few hours. These are probably terrible comps, but might as well try something (May 14).)
  
• TwoMisfits (I'm kinda shocked at the opening set from my Cinemarks... 2 screens (1 PLF, 1 not) and 6 showings at my PLF 14 for Thursday (and 11 showings on the same screens once it runs full day - 7 PLF b/c 1 is 3d on the reg screen, 4 not)... 3 screens (.75 3d, 2.25 not) and 9 showings at the non-PLF 12 for Thursday (and 12 showings on 2.25 screens once it runs full day)... So, 2 and 2.25 screens for the weekend presale sets... Disney must be charging a huge % for themselves b/c this is an Elemental opening set at my PLF...a little more generous for Thursday at my non-PLF, but then they too drop to an Elemental opening set after the adult Disney base Thursday rush... (May 14).)
  
• vafrow (No new sales. Whatever glitches in the system on day 1 didn't push sales to day 2. I still think the lack of base ticket options will push families to wait. Cineplex has jacked up the cost of premium formats, plus they're throwing in an increase for opening weekend of major releases. It adds up quickly for families (May 16). With the site glitching yesterday, it might account for the slow start. But, what's interesting is the format breakdown. Nothing is being made available in anything close to a regular showtime. The one non 3D showing in Dolby is a matinee showing. Everything else is carrying a hefty premium. They'll likely release regular showtimes closer to release, but right now, it's priced to get eager fans to pay the premium formats (May 15).)
  
• YM! (Seems IO2 is playing more like a kid's animation than a family event in start of presales. However, it is pretty solid for what it is. Do not have comparisons for anything but I like that Majestic is healthy and it about 66% of Garfield T-6. Thinking anywhere from 75m-100m OW rn but can change as we go along (May 17). In fairness it's only been an hour but yeah sales are softer than I expected. However, it is a month out and will largely skew more towards kids than say TLM/Across so wasn't expecting a blitz like them. Here at Marcus theaters are going all out for IO2 with it having the lion share of PLFs with it getting both screens when there is two PLFs with tentpole like levels of screens (May 14). Was taking a look at Marcus Cinemas to see that they have preloaded Inside Out 2 showtimes which seem to start at 3:00 pm on a Thursday. It seems like Marcus is going all out on it as judging from showtimes it's taking away all of Bad Boys’ PLFs in that theaters that have two+ PLFs are giving all to IO2 (May 11).)
  

Deadpool and Wolverine

• keysersoze123 (Only number that matters is OD presales. after few days it will hit a trough and then it will plod along until social media reactions and reviews hit close to release. I think we can kind of predict its OW after its OD presales (May 18). RESPONSE TO PORTHOS: Captain Marvel had very strong sales on its OD despite early start. So OD is all about fans. It does not matter if you start 2 weeks before or 9 weeks. They will still book. So it would be interesting to compare OD sales not only with CM for @Porthos but also the big openers in 2022/23 period from MTC perspective. 1) DS2 - 230k ish. 2) Thor 4 - 136k ish. 3) Wakanda - 110k. 4) Ant 3 - 88K. 5) Guardians 3 - 70k ish. I wonder where Deadpool 3 will land. Anything is fine as long as it does pull in a Marvels (May 17).)
  
• Porthos (No point of comparison for a movie starting presales this early (60+ days before release). Only MCU entry which comes close was Captain Marvel back in Jan of 2019 (T-58 start date). Aside from that, the only other Disney release would be TROS starting at T-59. This is gonna be the longest pre-sale window for a major Disney release since The Last Jedi all the way back in 2017 (which looks to be around 70 days if a cursory check of when tickets went on sale is correct). Hell, it's gonna be the longest major release of any studio since Fast X's execrable 99 day pre-sale window. Have had some that came close-ish, but probably the most on-point recent comparison will be Jurassic World 3's 43 day pre-sale window, which is still over three weeks shorter than this one. I mention this because the sheer length of the pre-sale window will very likely depress the D1/D2/D3 sales somewhat. Maybe not much, but you can't tell me there'd be no difference between a T-21 launch, a T-29 launch, a T-35 launch and a T-65 launch. Sure, it's a matter of smaller degrees when comparing something like a BP2 (starting at T-38), but that extra month is probably gonna slice some numbers off the top of the pile, especially after the first day (May 17).)
  

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated May 16):
MAY

• (May 19) Review Embargo Lifts [Garfield 9 PM EST]
  
• (May 20) Presales Start [Deadpool and Wolverine (9 AM EST)]
  
• (May 20) Opening Day [Monday: Spider-Man Homecoming Re-Release]
  
• (May 22) Presales Start [The Watchers]
  
• (May 23) Presales Start [Summer Camp]
  
• (May 23) Thursday Previews [Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga + Hit Man + The Garfield Movie + Sight]
  
• (May 26) Presales Start [Bikeriders]
  
• (May 27) Opening Day [Monday: Spider-Man Far From Home Re-Release]
  
• (May 30) Presales Start [A Quiet Place: Day One]
  
• (May 30) Thursday Previews [Ezra + Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle + Summer Camp + Robot Dreams]
  

JUNE

• (June 3) Opening Day [Monday: Spider-Man No Way Home Re-Release]
  
• (June 5) Presales Start [Despicable Me 4]
  
• (June 6) Presales Start [Twisters]
  
• (June 6) Thursday Previews [Bad Boys: Ride or Die + The Watchers]
  
• (June 8) 1-Saturday Re-Release (1st day) [The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Extended Edition]
  
• (June 9) 1-Sunday Re-Release (1st day) [The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Extended Edition]
  
• (June 10) 1-Monday Re-Release (1st day) [The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King Extended Edition]
  
• (June 13) Thursday Previews [Inside Out 2]
  
• (June 15) 1-Saturday Re-Release (2nd day) [The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Extended Edition]
  
• (June 16) 1-Sunday Re-Release (2nd day) [The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Extended Edition]
  
• (June 17) 1-Monday Re-Release (2nd day) [The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King Extended Edition]
  
• (June 20) Thursday Previews [The Bikeriders + Janet Planet]
  
• (June 27) Thursday Previews [Blue Lock The Movie -Episode Nagi- + Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 + A Quiet Place: Day One]
  

JULY

• (July 1) Presales Start [Longlegs]
  
• (July 2) Opening Day [Wednesday: Despicable Me 4]
  
• (July 4) Opening Day [Thursday: Possum Trot]
  
• (July 4) Thursday Previews [MaXXXine]
  
• (July 11) Thursday Previews [Fly Me to the Moon + Untitled New Line Horror movie]
  
• (July 18) Thursday Previews [Twisters]
  
• (July 25) Thursday Previews [Deadpool and Wolverine + Didi + Fabulous Four]
  
• (July 29) Presales Start [Alien: Romulus]
  

AUGUST

• (August 1) Thursday Previews [Harold and the Purple Crayon]
  
• (August 8) Thursday Previews [Borderlands + Colleen Hoover’s It Ends With Us + Cuckoo + The Fire Inside + Trap]
  
• (August 15) Thursday Previews [Alien: Romulus + Horizon An American Saga Chapter 2 + Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure]
  
• (August 22) Thursday Previews [Blink Twice + The Crow + The Forge + Slingshot]
  
• (August 29) Thursday Previews [City of Dreams + Reagan + They Listen]
  

Presale Tracking Posts:
April 23
April 25
April 27
April 30
May 2
May 4
May 7
May 9
May 11
May 14
May 16
Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.

Study.com Courses for Transfer Credit Earners at Excelsior University

Transfer Intro

Study.com offers transfer courses with an element of self-pacing, by which the student can mediate the rate of course completion by finishing course competencies.
More than 200 Study.com courses have been recommended for transfer by the American Council on Education and/or the National Credit Recommendation Service.
Self-paced, competency-based courses give students learning options that may be suited to their own preferences, enabling a student to adjust the amount of time spent on a particular subject as necessary.

Excelsior University Page

The Study.com - Excelsior University page provides information on how to save on tuition with Study.com and Excelsior.
In the Tuition and Transfer Credit Information section on that page, the Transfer Guides subsection can be expanded to display pdf guides which show how credits could transfer into an Excelsior University degree program. As the expansion indicates,

Actual transferability of credits is dependent upon current Excelsior University degree requirements and policies based on the date a student is admitted. All students will be reviewed individually to evaluate the transferability of their credits into an Excelsior University degree program.

The Tables in This Post

The tables appearing in this post are provided in a format that can be copied and pasted into common spreadsheet applications.
The tables note Study.com transfer possibilities indicated in the pdf guides, alongside an SDCSave.com referral link I provided which links to a relevant Study.com transfer course.
As an affiliate of Study.com, I may receive compensation after a user follows a referral link in this post and makes a purchase at Study.com.

Selected Transfer Courses for the Bachelor of Professional Studies in Business and Management Program at Excelsior University

• Linked pdf Revision: August 2022
  
• https://www.excelsior.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Study.com-BPS-in-Business-Management-03_2023.pdf
  

Study.com Transfer Course Name	SDCSave.com Referral Link to Study.com Transfer Course
Accounting 102: Introduction to Managerial Accounting	Accounting 102: Introduction to Managerial Accounting
Business 108: Business Ethics	Business 108: Business Ethics
Business 212: Business Statistics	Business 212: Business Statistics
Business 101: Principles of Management	Business 101: Principles of Management
Business 104: Information Systems and Computer Applications	Business 104: Information Systems and Computer Applications
Business 106: Human Resource Management	Business 106: Human Resource Management
Business 102: Principles of Marketing	Business 102: Principles of Marketing
Business 302: Foundations of Leadership	Business 302: Foundations of Leadership
Business 307: Leadership & Organizational Behavior	Business 307: Leadership & Organizational Behavior
Business 308: Globalization & International Management	Business 308: Globalization & International Management
Communications 101: Public Speaking	Communications 101: Public Speaking
Finance 101: Principles of Finance	Finance 101: Principles of Finance
Math 101: College Algebra	Math 101: College Algebra

Selected Transfer Courses for the Bachelor of Science in Business Program at Excelsior University

• Linked pdf Revision: August 2022
  
• https://www.excelsior.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Study.com-BS-in-Business-08_2022.pdf
  

Study.com Transfer Course Name	SDCSave.com Referral Link to Study.com Transfer Course
Accounting 101: Financial Accounting	Accounting 101: Financial Accounting
Accounting 102: Introduction to Managerial Accounting	Accounting 102: Introduction to Managerial Accounting
Business 101: Principles of Management	Business 101: Principles of Management
Business 102: Principles of Marketing	Business 102: Principles of Marketing
Business 103: Introductory Business Law	Business 103: Introductory Business Law
Business 104: Information Systems and Computer Applications	Business 104: Information Systems and Computer Applications
Business 108: Business Ethics	Business 108: Business Ethics
Business 113: Business Communication	Business 113: Business Communication
Business 212: Business Statistics	Business 212: Business Statistics
Business 307: Leadership & Organizational Behavior	Business 307: Leadership & Organizational Behavior
Business 308: Globalization & International Management	Business 308: Globalization & International Management
Economics 101: Principles of Economics	Economics 101: Principles of Economics
Economics 102: Macroeconomics	Economics 102: Macroeconomics
Finance 101: Principles of Finance	Finance 101: Principles of Finance
Math 101: College Algebra	Math 101: College Algebra

Selected Transfer Courses for the Bachelor of Science in Liberal Arts Program at Excelsior University

• Linked pdf Revision: August 2022
  
• https://www.excelsior.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Study.com-Excelsior-BS-in-Liberal-Arts-08_2022-1.pdf
  

Study.com Transfer Course Name	SDCSave.com Referral Link to Study.com Transfer Course
Philosophy 103: Ethics - Theory & Practice or Business 310: Advanced Business Ethics	Philosophy 103: Ethics - Theory & Practice or Business 310: Advanced Business Ethics

Selected Transfer Courses for the Bachelor of Science in Psychology Program at Excelsior University

• Linked pdf Revision: March 2022
  
• https://www.excelsior.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Study.com-BS-Psychology-Guide-March_2022-2.pdf
  

Study.com Transfer Course Name	SDCSave.com Referral Link to Study.com Transfer Course
Philosophy 103: Ethics - Theory & Practice	Philosophy 103: Ethics - Theory & Practice
Psychology 101: Intro to Psychology	Psychology 101: Intro to Psychology
Psychology 105: Research Methods in Psychology	Psychology 105: Research Methods in Psychology
Psychology 107: Life Span Developmental Psychology	Psychology 107: Life Span Developmental Psychology
Psychology 301: Industrial/Organizational Psychology	Psychology 301: Industrial/Organizational Psychology
Psychology 310: Psychology of Personality	Psychology 310: Psychology of Personality
Psychology 312: History and Systems of Psychology	Psychology 312: History and Systems of Psychology

Selected Transfer Courses for the Criminal Justice program at Excelsior University

• Linked pdf Revision: May 2021
  
• https://www.excelsior.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Study.com-BS-Criminal-Justice-Guide-05_2021.pdf
  

Study.com Transfer Course Name	SDCSave.com Referral Link to Study.com Transfer Course
Criminal Justice 101: Intro to Criminal Justice	Criminal Justice 101: Intro to Criminal Justice
Criminal Justice 104: Introduction to Criminology	Criminal Justice 104: Introduction to Criminology
Criminal Justice 106: Forensic Science or Criminal Justice 107: Criminal Law	Criminal Justice 106: Forensic Science or Criminal Justice 107: Criminal Law
Criminal Justice 305: The Juvenile Justice System	Criminal Justice 305: The Juvenile Justice System
Criminal Justice 306: Research Methods in Criminal Justice	Criminal Justice 306: Research Methods in Criminal Justice

Selected Transfer Courses for the Bachelor of Science in Information Technology program at Excelsior University

• Linked pdf Revision: May 2021
  
• https://www.excelsior.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Study.com-BS-Information-Technology-Guide-05_2021.pdf
  

Study.com Transfer Course Name	SDCSave.com Referral Link to Study.com Transfer Course
Business 212: Business Statistics	Business 212: Business Statistics
Communications 102: Interpersonal Communication	Communications 102: Interpersonal Communication
Math 101: College Algebra	Math 101: College Algebra
Math 108: Discrete Mathematics	Math 108: Discrete Mathematics
Philosophy 103: Ethics - Theory & Practice or Business 310: Advanced Business Ethics	Philosophy 103: Ethics - Theory & Practice or Business 310: Advanced Business Ethics

Study.com's Page for Excelsior University Transfers

The courses indicated in the tables provided aren't comprehensive, and more course transfer options can be found at Study.com by following my referral link, Excelsior University Transfer Study.com.

Transfer Outro

You can use the tables provided above, the linked pdf guides, and Study.com's page for Excelsior University transfers as a starting point for outlining transfer course possibilities.
As there may be differences between the provided information and Excelsior University's eventual transfer evaluation, it can be helpful to ask an Excelsior University advisor about how a transfer course may fit with your own program.
It may also be useful to note any fees associated with the Post-Admission Credit Evaluation Service at Excelsior University.
Currently, one can save 25% off the first month price of a new, monthly Study.com College Saver membership.
You can try out College Saver by visiting my referral link, College Credit Study.com, to start earning transfer credit at Study.com.

I'm 42M, in mid-upper management (division manager), in an engineering related field, and making >$110k. I'm considering a Master's degree, but want to be certain it's worth the time.
About my Situation

• Who pays? Work + VA benefits will cover pretty much all of the costs.
• Why try? I'm capped out in my current job, and I need a path to advance with my current or a future employer. I'd also like to set myself up for a fulfilling second half of life. Master's degree could be a stepping stone in that direction.
• What fields am I considering?
  • Architectural Engineering - it's an extension of what I do now, I like the engineering side and the intellectual pursuit, but not sure if it's really my calling. How do I figure that out?
  • Engineering Management - seems like a cop out, but I do very little actual engineering in my day to day job. The management side could benefit me educationally, and on my resume.
  • Complete shift to something different like Data Science, or Info Systems or whatever - I do a lot of information management, am very good at complex excel formulas, etc. Maybe there's something that I haven't thought of yet that would be a good career shift.

Big question is how do I decide what to pursue?
I've recently read the book, "So Good They Can't Ignore You", and he talks about gaining skills - a master's degree checks that box. He also interviewed a lot of people for the book, and I feel like I should try to do the same.
TLDR: I'm comfortably stuck in my current career, but looking to expand my horizons with a Master's degree. I'm not sure if I'm even asking the right questions to determine whether to and how to select the right Master's degree track.
Edit: - Added emphasis that I'm a Division Manager at the top of the write up. - Current degree: BS Civil Engineering with a minor in Management. - I am a registered Professional Engineer (PE). Technically this makes me an expert, but really I just studied hard and passed a long hard test.

Hey reddit bit of a weird/sad one for ya today. Just a throwaway account and I might end up deleting all this within the week.
Sorry if I get ramble-y and all over the place I'm just shooting off my stream of consciousness. Sorry for the trauma/info dump and any grammaspelling errors.
I've been going out with my boyfriend for almost 5 months now and we've just started getting more touchy and intimate over the past month or so.We've talked a bit about intimacy the past few months but I have a few personal issues with it.When I dated my ex of 4 years he was pretty pushy about sexual stuff cause we were in a long distance relationship and he was just a touchy physical guy in general, and I've been a good little church girl all my life with no experience.
We did a lot of stuff I probably wasn't ready for. When we first met in person we just went right to making out and oral but no intercourse. This was consensual but looking back I was probably too shy to say no...I haven't been in the best mind space anyway the past few months I guess and haven't been turned on by anything me and my partner have done. I feel more romantic attraction than sexual, but lately there has been a lack of emotion on my side of things. I don't feel anything when we kiss, i just feel like im there, kissing him. As sad as that is to say. It hurts writing that out because i desperately want to feel something, anything. When I'm alone I have no problem getting myself off, I probably prefer it. I like the fantasy of it more than the physicalness. But I just shut down when I get with a partner.
I have a lot of brain blocks from religion (the classic repressed church girl saving herself for marriage blah) I'm still a virgin. I highly doubt I'm ever going to have sex with him honestly... it's not even a marriage thing, at this point I don't care if I get married or not. I'm not sure if I trust anyone enough with my body to feel good or get over the mental barrier that keep me from enjoying sexual things with a partner.
Which brings me to two questions.
Am I some kind of asexual?
Or just low-key traumatized from past pushy experiences?
Or both? (probably :/ )
Well... I mean I definitely don't feel asexual... I believe I have a fearful avoidant/disorganized attachment style. (Self diagnosed)
Fast forward to now with my current boyfriend, he's very kind, sweet and all around gentlemen. He makes me feel safe and happy. I haven't told him much about my ex cause I just want to leave the past in the past.
But I guess over this past month I've just been like low-key triggered when he asks me to touch him?Which brings me to tonight. We were making out for a while and he asks me to touch him and I just can't get into it. I didn't want to say no to him and ruin the mood, I want him to be happy.
Now that im thinking about it I'm started to repeat some of the behaviour I did with my ex... but im more aware of what im doing now... I am a people pleaser, but it's also just a hand job right? Big whoop. The first time I did it I felt a little grossed out when he finished... and the same thing happened tonight when he finished but I felt disgusted and almost gagged by the feeling and texture of it all... I cant get into it mentally. But hey he thanked me and was satisfied right?
No he hasn't asked to make me feel good or anything, I wouldn't ask that of him because it's too embarrassing and I don't think I could get into it... I don't understand why I would be so disgusted enough to hold back and almost gag.
I don't have a strong gag reflex, I had a dog before and never minded picking up after him or cleaning up my baby cousins vomit.
So am I just doomed and ruined to never enjoy sexual stuff reddit? I want to make my partner happy but it shouldn't come of the cost of me feeling the need to push past what I think and feel and need in that moment.
I said yes to a lot of things in the past with my ex because that's what girlfriends do yadda yadda and I'm gonna have to deal with this real soon and have a talk with my boyfriend about why this is a problem for me...
I uh realize this is probably a good talk to have with a therapist about "sexual trauma" and "repression/suppression" and all that fun stuff but that's not really an option at the moment, so I turn to you reddit experts for advice haha. (Yes I realize yall aren't trained professionals but the only people i can turn to atm)
I probably know the answers to what yall are gonna say but any advice would be cool I guess. I can reply to comments below and might update and edit within the week

Paid ads business models / products that are lowkey fire - from a $10M marketer
Hey guys, I used to work at a private equity marketing agency that bought, scaled, and sold DTC e-commerce, SAAS, info & digital product online brands and I was a media buyer. I have over $10M worth of spend under my belt for clients, and have worked with multiple 7-8 figure online companies.
No I’m not looking to sell you anything so don’t assume that I’m making this post for that reason.
I am trying to build a network of like minded people and am focused on building an engaged community with the same goals to help each other and stuff.
I’ve had the luxury of being able to see many different business models by working for a P.E agency. I will share some businesses I saw and you can do what you want with that info

1 - $100M a year self cooling bedsheet brand

When I tell you self cooling bedsheets had the highest revenue I’ve seen of any ecom store I am not exaggerating. It was f*cking baffling how much money these mfs were making by selling self cooling bedsheets.
The craziest part is that they did it all thru paid ads. I was stunned looking at the backend of the Shopify account and seeing these numbers. The reason a product like self cool bedsheets works so well is because of a few things:
A) Broad TAM (total addressable market) This means they can sell to a broader range of people. The more people you can sell to for e com the better.
Their AOV (average order value) was $110 as well. So not only are they targeting a broad audience, but they have really good margins
I think another reason why this product / brand is doing so well is because of timing as well. They exited in 2018, but really blew up during 2020 when everyone was home.
F it I’ll name drop. They’re called Miracle brand. Go study their LP and ads. Their LP is really high converting like 5-7%. Their offer is amazing (3 free towels with your bedsheets) and the CRO is fully optimized.

2 - subscription based Digital Assets

This one is really good, but super niche. The company basically sells digital editing assets that go with editing software like Davinci, IMovie, and whatever other editing softwares there are
They have 100% profit margins on the product and they offer a subscription. Their AOV is $60 per month and people actually subscribe because they know that these digital assets are really really good and it will save them time when editing. They were doing $2-$3M per year in revenue on a 100% margin product which is now offered as a subscription. I believe the overall margins on the business was like 70-80% they had low overhead.
These mfs are absolutely PRINTING. It’s not easy to make really good digital editing assets either so it’s hard to replicate. The #1 thing when buying or selling a business is margins. Their business if an easily be sold for 7-9x because of big margins, big AOV, and the MRR (monthly recurring revenue). On average businesses sell for 3-6x in the DTC (direct to consumer) e commerce space, but when you add a subscription model and it’s a digital product, you double the valuation of your company
Like I said, I am just sharing business models I’ve seen that were absolutely amazing!

3 - Sticker company

This one I think surprised me the most. These guys were selling a subscription for you to get a pack of custom anime stickers every single month.
Yup, you get high quality anime stickers every single month. This business wasn’t doing $1M but they did take in 6-figs. The reason this model is smart is because the margins are really good. It only costs like $0.50 USD to make a full pack of these custom stickers and you add $3-$4 for shipping. Their AOV was like $25-$30.
I think this business worked well because it caters to a strong fan base of people who love anime. Personally I like avatar and one piece but there’s a lot of anime super fans who would love to subscribe to a sticker club that sends you a custom pack of cool stickers of your favorite anime. Not sure how the legal side of it worked.
Comment what you think, and let me know if you have any questions. Half of these business models were very surprising and to this day it’s hard to believe that they work so well.
Feel free to also share good business models you’ve seen. There’s a lot more I can share but these stand out the most

So this is an insane story that I've put a post on LegalAdviceUK to try get some advice from the legal eagles but that didn't really cover the full story. But having an informal chat in a comments section of this page about it and posting the legal ins and outs yesterday has given me some strength. And if I need to I will have the tub of cookie dough ice cream to comfort my big fat butt. So here we go a story which I've been trying to do for months without feeling nothing but shame and humiliation for allowing this parasite into my life enough to impact it like this.
So some backstory on my life in January 2023 I was working for Uber Eats as a delivery driver and had a Motorcycle accident. As a result I broke my foot, lost my insurance as Uber did everything they could to make sure it was invalidated to avoid responsibility for me. As a result I became jobless and homeless within a matter of days as I was already behind due to high insurance costs and low pay. I spent the next 9 months couch surfing and jumping from job to job until I finally settled working for a convenience store chain and leaving the city of Portsmouth for the town of Gosport across the way. I was settled with a roommate in October and I was doing well again.
During this I'd won a seat for myself into a semi major Poker tournament that I cashed in during August. I made £1300 for a weekend. In enters Mr S the person who will be the focus of this piece. He needed me to help him out with opening up some betting accounts for some online sports betting. He sweetened the deal by saying that he would invest in me to make my dream company come true, making a film business. He would invest £5000 into me to get me started which is all I needed because my plan was to work from home and get film clients and work up to an office. I too would invest £5000 over time. You see Mr S was a successful businessman in the community, a former sports personality and everyone loves this guy. Couldn't find someone to curse his name in a thousand miles I'm pretty sure. I had known him through my times as a poker player for nearly 12 years myself and I couldn't say I knew a bad thing about him. So I opened the accounts thinking nothing of it, then he asked to borrow money off me which I thought nothing of at the time as he said that he had it in cash and could pay me back in the morning as it was in cash not the bank apparently. He regularly did have this issue apparently because he worked in a cash heavy business (buying precious metals) and he was a regular at casinos. So I gave him the money. He paid me back some of it then made me wait another week to get the rest after I was calling him regularly to make him respond. This would be a recurring theme throughout the story.
After this issue was resolved I made a thought to push for the money to secure the investment. Mr S got the call and stated that we needed a business meeting in his office. So I asked to set up the business meeting which he regularly called to reschedule. After two months of this I got fed up of him brushing me off whilst he's borrowing my entire salary to gamble on and off when he ran out of his own money. So I changed the passwords on all the gambling sites to force him to take a meeting and pay me back the most recent amount he borrowed. I was naturally pissed off that this multi-millionaire was so reckless with his money that he was borrowing off of me and was constantly late paying me back. He paid me back and set up a meeting. He didn't make the meeting but assured me he was going to transfer me £3000 without one. He did not claiming his accounts were frozen by the government (I know I should have ran like a Gazelle from a Hyena at this point). Well I excused this behaviour because he reassured me everything would get sorted. This accounts frozen issue also became a recurring theme throughout the story too.
For a while Mr S didn't borrow any money off of me, he just used his own money (or some other poor sods), I kept asking him to invest into the business as I had opened a business account and I was investing my own money and borrowing money via a credit card. In total I put in £5000 whilst working a minimum wage job and using small amounts I'd earned through a bit of penny stock trading and poker, trying to get the money together. I worked 50-60 hours a week to pay for Christmas and invest in the business because of the fact that I didn't want to waste time. I set up business meetings, got business cards, bought equipment and got my friend who I will simply call Angel to work with me to put together a team. My friend Alf and a guy we found on LinkedIn I'll simply call J became our first team. We also found a lovely Graphics Artists online who I'll call Ally. Everyone was on freelance for now as we needed to get clients but we assembled the team. Mr S kept missing business meetings with clients that I set up for him to secure including three major ones that might have cost me a potential 6 figure contract that I spent two months setting up. Making County Football (Soccer for you Yanks) games on a Patreon page and YouTube for live streams. This mega pissed me off and Mr S reassured me he would get the contract back or getting a bigger one. I entrusted him with this task but as far as I can tell he never did anything for it.
On the night of his youngest child being born, whilst his wife was giving birth he spent his time playing online poker or sports betting, I know this because I had the transaction record and he even borrowed money off of me. He took a week to pay me £500 and I almost lost my brand new housing because of this. Thank goodness for my new friend and housemate being understanding of the situation and after this I put my foot down and said no more borrowing from me and if he asked again I would cut him off. I also insisted again that he should invest into the business. He made his excuses of the bank being frozen again and I told him to get his shit sorted out and invest because I'm getting annoyed waiting on him. I wanted to make an advert and without his money I couldn't do this.
So it comes January 2024 I lost my job with the convenience store after I stopped a shoplifter who'd assaulted me when I turned a corner. And by stop I mean used my big boy voice and scared the crap out of them. Don't know why they fired me for that but what do I care it freed me up and paid me £2000 to go away. I got a new job whilst also securing my first client. The client paid the first half of the money which they owed for the filming to be done and Mr S knowing this asked me to lend it to him for the purpose of gambling which I flatly shut down because it was staff wages for the project. When I told him this he said "I'm sure I'll have it back in time and if not they won't mind because they'll get experience." Yep you read that right he was willing to let the staff work for free so he could bet on horses. I told him that I would never put myself or him above my team when it comes to pay because we have no right to ask anyone to work for nothing when they are all multi talented individuals.
Angel was a video editor, animator, photographer, camera operator and lighting expert. She holds a Masters degree in film technology.
J was a camera operator who had worked on major TV documentary sets and was already taking a pay cut to work on this as an investment in the companies future. He held a BA degree.
Alf is a sound operator and musician with a masters degree in music.
Yep this guy wanted to not pay these guys so he could gamble recklessly. I semi caved though by giving him my personal money because he would repeatedly call me three times an hour over this. This was his tactic, begging and harassing me so he can get the money and then when I want the money back ignore and excuse the debt for a week. He regularly said he'd have it back in a day and it would take a week. He gave me £200 extra on top of this debt and said to put it into the business account to help pay for an advert. I did it and yeah that apparently was all I was going to need to make and distribute an advert in his mind. In reality it would barely cover the graphics and music for the advert.
Finally my old debts were catching up with me in March 2024 and I got myself an IVA (Individual Voluntary Arrangement) to protect myself and the company as a debt management option. This is because of the fact that old bills, credit cards and loans that I'd taken out were catching up with me that I expected to pay off by now. Which I might have done, had Mr S not been screwing around with the investment. In this process I had to shut down all the gambling sites to comply with the IVA. I called Mr S and informed him to which he promptly told me he was no longer going to invest in my business if I won't let him gamble and risk my IVA. According to him he was going to invest when he won £10000 and was going to give me half of the money as his investment forgetting he'd already won that and then some 2 weeks prior and I knew it. I called him out on this fact and told him to pony up or bugger off because he'd wasted 8 months of mine and my teams lives promising his investment and failing on every level. He exploded on me telling me no one talks to him like this, how dare I describe him as a con artist and a fraud. He demanded his £200 back which I flat out refused as I didn't have it. I spent it paying the Angel the money I owed her because she did extra work on the editing that I failed to secure the money for from either Mr S or the Client. She offered to work for less but I flat out refused that offer because it was my mistake and my problem to deal with.
Over the next 6 weeks now I've been harassed every few days over £200 to be paid back which I'm now refusing to pay because screw him. He lied to me for 8 months and as far as I'm concerned he stole money out of the company and then wants me to pay him more money to buy him out and disregard the team members so he can get his money when he's a multimillionaire and the team are like me on minimum wage and freelancing. So AITA for calling him a thief and con artist whilst refusing to pay him a penny so I can prioritise fixing the damage he had caused? If he'd had invested in the business the way he said he would and it was a normal falling out I probably would pay him out as the business would have been more likely on solid ground with an advert made and a chance for the business to thrive. But this was my lot. I've since been told I'm a worthless person because I won't pay him back and take his calls. I'm a terrible friend for letting such a small issue like me trying to sort out my life at the expense of Mr S's gambling life.
As it stands I haven't paid Mr S back, I still owe a small amount to Angel but am paying her back and I've taken a new job at my local Maccies to insure I do. I'm still looking for more clients to do film work with to get my team into the swing of it. Hopefully we do get more work as I have a wonderful team and I want them to get work with me and make a very successful future for us all. I'm looking into getting a start up business grant from the UK government as well so we can go forward properly as well.
So AITA for cutting Mr S out of the business, trusting him at all and risking so much on his word or for not paying him back the £200?
Click here if you are interested in seeing our first clients advert. I apologise to the great Lady Charlotte Dobre for plugging my work on her channel but I would love to have people view my teams wonderful work and hopefully get more work for the future here in Hampshire UK. Please DM me for details to hire us too we intend to make music videos, business adverts and commissioned films.
For all you reading/listening this short novel I thank you and I wish you well. I hope I get more business soon and I want everyone to know that we will be posting up Patreon work soon covering Entitled People and Neckbeard Stories from Reddit along with Documentaries that we might be making with Sky TV, English Heritage and also a planned comedy show in the style of a budget John Oliver Last Week Tonight. Again sorry for plugging myself Lady Charlotte Dobre and I send you love and respect because your videos make my days feel better when depression is biting my ass.
PS - That Ice Cream Tub didn't survive.

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By David North
On April 25, 2024, Bogdan Syrotiuk, the 25-year-old leader of the Young Guard of Bolshevik-Leninists (the YGBL), a socialist-Trotskyist organization active in Ukraine, Russia and throughout the former USSR, was arrested by the notorious state security service of the fascistic Zelensky regime, the SBU. Bogdan is being held in atrocious conditions in a high security prison in the city of Nikolaev (Mykolaiv), which is located in southern Ukraine.
The International Committee of the Fourth International (ICFI), the world Trotskyist movement with which the YGBL is politically affiliated, has finally obtained the actual documents in which the SBU presents its charges against Bogdan Syrotiuk. These documents, which form the basis of his detention, make absolutely clear that Bogdan is the victim of a monstrous state frame-up. The allegations concocted by the SBU are a crude combination of lies, obvious fabrications, and political absurdities.
Moreover, the documents submitted by the SBU are directed not only against Bogdan. They are nothing less than a declaration of war against all left-wing and socialist opposition to the Zelensky regime and, specifically, the International Committee of the Fourth International and its public organ, the World Socialist Web Site.
The central allegation leveled against Bogdan Syrotiuk is that he is guilty of high treason. The basis of this charge is that Bogdan has been for the past two years “engaged in the preparation of publications commissioned by representatives of a Russian propaganda and information agency, the World Socialist Web Site” [emphasis added.]
The World Socialist Web Site is denounced as an instrument of “an active information war against Ukraine” being waged by Russia, which

uses the so-called “left-wing” propagandists and their information platforms (websites, media and social platforms) to discredit the support of Ukraine by international partners, justify Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, accusing Western countries of creating conditions under which Russia was forced to launch the so-called special military operation, fomenting wars in Ukraine by providing it with weapons, etc. As a result, they are used by Russia to systematically convey pro-Kremlin narratives to the population of Ukraine and Ukraine’s allied countries…
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the World Socialist Web Site “WSWS” has regularly published articles in various languages aimed at discrediting Ukraine and representatives of governments around the world for assisting Ukraine in its fight against the aggressor state.

The ICFI’s opposition to the US-NATO war in Ukraine is an essential element of its political program, deeply rooted in the socialist and internationalist principles of the Trotskyist movement. The attempt of the Ukrainian regime to portray this opposition as an instrument of Putin’s propaganda network is as viciously mendacious as it is politically absurd. The intransigent opposition of the International Committee of the Fourth International to the Putin regime—which emerged as a consequence of the Stalinist bureaucracy’s final betrayal of socialism and the restoration of capitalism in the former USSR—is a fundamental political fact that is substantiated not only in written texts numbering in the hundreds, but also in the exhaustively documented activity of the Trotskyist movement spanning decades.
True to its fascist character, the Ukrainian regime is operating on the basis of the well-known precept of Hitler and his propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels: “The bigger the lie, the more readily it will be believed.”
In this particular case, the Zelensky regime seems to believe that the scale of the SBU lies are of such a magnitude that they will simply overwhelm the thinking public. It thus expects that public opinion will accept that the Putin regime is directing the work of the WSWS, which the SBU indictment describes as

an online publication of the world Trotskyist movement, the International Committee of the Fourth International and its affiliated sections in the Socialist Equality Parties around the world, which covers the main socio-political problems around the world from the position of revolutionary opposition to the capitalist market system, with the aim of establishing world socialism through socialist revolution.

At no point does the SBU attempt to explain the contradiction that wrecks its case against Bogdan, i.e., that the political principles that he upholds as a socialist and internationalist opponent of wars waged by the capitalist ruling class are irreconcilably hostile to the policies of the Putin regime, including its invasion of Ukraine.
It attempts to evade the contradiction by simply lying. The indictment claims that Bogdan’s activities, “acting on the instructions of a representative of the World Socialist Web Site,” consisted of “supporting and justifying the conduct of the Russian aggressive war on the territory of Ukraine…”
Every word is a lie. The opposition of the ICFI, its affiliated organizations, and the WSWS to the Russian invasion, in line with its hostility to the Putin regime, is a political fact that is documented in hundreds of articles that have been posted since the first day of the invasion.
On February 24, 2022, the day of the Russian invasion, the ICFI posted a statement on the WSWS titled: “Oppose the Putin government’s invasion of Ukraine and US-NATO warmongering! For the unity of Russian and Ukrainian workers!” It began:

The International Committee of the Fourth International and the World Socialist Web Site denounce the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Despite the provocations and threats by the US and NATO powers, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must be opposed by socialists and class-conscious workers. The catastrophe that was set in motion by the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 cannot be averted on the basis of Russian nationalism, a thoroughly reactionary ideology that serves the interests of the capitalist ruling class represented by Vladimir Putin.
What is required is not a return to the pre-1917 foreign policy of tsarism, but, rather, a revival, in Russia and throughout the world, of the socialist internationalism that inspired the October Revolution of 1917 and led to the creation of the Soviet Union as a workers state. The invasion of Ukraine, whatever the justifications given by the Putin regime, will serve only to divide the Russian and Ukrainian working class and, moreover, serve the interests of US and European imperialism.
In the two major statements that he has made during the past week, Putin has justified his actions by enumerating the provocations and crimes of the United States. There is, no question, much that is factually true in his denunciation of Washington’s hypocrisy. But the viciously anti-communist and xenophobic ideology that he invokes and the interests that he claims to be defending are thoroughly reactionary and incapable of appealing to the broad mass of the working class in Russia, let alone in Ukraine and throughout the world. A substantial section of the working class in Russia and Ukraine will be repelled by the cynicism of Putin’s glorification of the heroic struggle waged by the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany in World War II while denouncing the October Revolution and the existence of the USSR as a multi-national state.

The ICFI insisted that the socialist opposition to imperialism was incompatible with any form of national chauvinism, and, therefore, rejected all the justifications given by the Putin regime and its apologists for the invasion. Their invocation of “national defense” could not be accepted by socialists. The defeat of imperialism and its overthrow was possible only through the revolutionary struggle of the international working class. The ICFI statement cited the words of Trotsky: “Not to bind itself to the national state in time of war, to follow not the war map but the map of the class struggle, is possible only for that party that has already declared irreconcilable war on the national state in time of peace.”
The ICFI called “for an immediate end to the war,” and explained: “In opposing the invasion of Ukraine, we denounce the policies of US/NATO imperialism, whose claims to be defending democracy and human rights are blood-drenched with hypocrisy.”
This political declaration elaborated the principles and policy that have guided the work of the ICFI and WSWS since the war began.
On February 26, 2022 the International Committee held an international webinar, in which its opposition to the war was emphatically advanced. Among the speakers, in addition to myself, were Nick Beams, a longtime leader of the International Committee’s Australian section, Johannes Stern, a leader of the ICFI in Germany, Thomas Scripps, a leading member of the ICFI’s section in Britain, Joseph Kishore, the national secretary of the Socialist Equality Party in the United States, and Evan Blake, another leading member of the SEP (US).
The ICFI has never wavered from the principled opposition to the policies of NATO and Russia that it advanced in the first days of the war.
The relationship between the ICFI and the comrades of the YGBL coincided almost exactly with the outbreak of the war. They were attracted to the ICFI precisely because of its opposition to both the war and the national chauvinism of the Russian and Ukrainian regimes.
The SBU indictment charges that the World Socialist Web Site assigned to Bogdan “the task of preparing, writing, editing and publishing … both on the WSWS website and other communist-oriented media, articles, publications, comments, etc. aimed at spreading pro-Russian narratives related to the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, to which [Bogdan Syrotiuk] gave his voluntary consent.”
In support of this claim, the SBU references a YGBL statement titled, “For the organization of an international movement of workers and young people against war!” It claims that this document, posted on the World Socialist Web Site on October 12, 2022, includes “fragments, statements, sentences and phrases… which contain justification of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, which began in 2014…”
The actual document clearly exposes this claim to be a lie. There is not a single sentence in the YGBL declaration that indicates support for the invasion of Ukraine. The SBU cites selectively from the document, including passages only from numbered paragraphs 4, 7, 8, 10 and 13. Paragraphs 4 through 8—the SBU interrupts the continuity of the YGBL’s analysis by leaving out paragraphs 5 and 6—provide a concise Marxist explanation of the objective capitalist crisis and political aims that underlay the instigation of the war by the United States and its NATO allies. They state:

1. The new world order that the United States wants to establish looks like this very possible picture: Russia and China are to be subordinated to imperialism and divided, if that is necessary to maintain direct control over their natural, industrial-technological and human resources.
   
2. The European imperialist powers support the United States for their own place in the new redivision of the world. At the same time, European imperialism, while placed on rations by the United States, sees a way out of its economic and geopolitical predicament only in a redivision of the world in which it can regain its former greatness.
   
3. Japan, South Korea and Australia support the US only as much as it suits their interests in the struggle against China in the Pacific region. These countries will support the US as long as it allows them to compete with China. The process of dividing spheres of influence will revive the contradictions between the Pacific capitalist powers, which are as much in limbo as Europe.
   
4. The crisis of 2008 revived class struggles around the world. The Arab Spring of the early 2010s is vivid evidence of this revival. It forced US and European imperialism to take more decisive measures. In 2014, they supported a coup d'état in Ukraine. Through this coup, the US was able to create all the conditions to build a bridgehead in a future war against Russia.
   
5. The Covid-19 pandemic that erupted in 2020 exacerbated the contradictions of capitalism and was the trigger for a more rapid expansion of US imperialism in preparation for war against Russia and China. The US embarked on a more provocative path of abandoning the “one-China” policy, and increasing its support for Ukraine, as expressed in the NATO summit in August 2021, which supported Zelensky’s “Crimean platform.”
   

Significantly, the SBU leaves out paragraph 9 of the YGBL declaration, which presents a scathing indictment of the Putin regime. That paragraph reads:

The reactionary regime of Vladimir Putin emerged from the treacherous dissolution of the Soviet Union by the Stalinist bureaucracy and the restoration of capitalism. The policies of Putin, in the final analysis, are aimed at safeguarding the wealth of the post-Soviet oligarchy against the pressure of Western imperialism from above and, even more critically, against the movement of the Russian working class from below.

The SBU does cite paragraph 10, which continues the critique of the Putin regime, stating:

Within this geopolitical and social context, Putin’s adventurist invasion of Ukraine on February 24 was the Russian oligarchy’s response to NATO’s relentless expansion to the east. The Putin regime’s main objective was to achieve through the pressure of its “Special Operation” a new round of talks with the US-NATO, since the last round ended up crossing “red lines” on the part of the US-NATO, which caused Putin’s invasion [emphasis added].

The characterization of Putin’s invasion as “adventurist” is in no way compatible with what the SBU claims to be a “pro-Russian narrative.” Obviously recognizing the fragility of its attempt to portray the YGBL statement as pro-Putin propaganda, the SBU decided against further citations from the document, leaving out the YGBL’s development of its denunciation of Putin’s policies in paragraphs 11 and 12, which assert:

1. The Russian bourgeoisie’s desire for an “equal partnership” with the West was one of the most utopian delusions. This delusion, historically derived from Stalin’s policy of “Popular Fronts” and then “peaceful coexistence,” developed among the fledgling class of Russian capitalists in the 1990s.
   
2. The Putin regime has not gotten rid of this utopian delusion. Its whole policy has been to maneuver and seek compromise with the West, with whom the Russian oligarchy wanted to be “on equal footing.” Except that Western imperialism, with its conquering ambitions for Russia, did not care about these conciliatory tones of Putin’s regime.
   

The SBU also chose not to cite paragraph 17 of the YGBL statement, which declares:

The course of the war after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine increasingly emphasizes the reactionary nature of this invasion. While claiming to be fighting for the independence of the Russian people from the threat of Western imperialism, Putin is in fact only defending the independence of the Russian oligarchy to exploit the Russian working class and the country’s raw material wealth.

Paragraph 18, which is also left uncited, further demolishes the SBU’s indictment of Bogdan, the YGBL and the WSWS as instruments of Russian propaganda. The paragraph asserts that

the Putin regime has no way out of the current crisis for Russian society. It will not have such a way out in the future. All of the military and political activities of the Putin regime will only contribute to the escalation of Western imperialism and the deterioration of conditions for the Russian, Ukrainian and international working class.

The SBU also failed to cite paragraphs 19 and 20, which presciently warned of the catastrophe to which the war could lead.

1. The prospects for the present war, when thought within the framework of the capitalist system, are very bleak. First, this war will take on a long-term character and will not only be fought between Ukraine and Russia. It is the first step in inflaming the world situation to the point that the threat of a third world war is simply inevitable. All countries of the world will take part in the future war.
   
2. Secondly, the nature of the war will be determined by the policies of the ruling classes, which now stand on a blatantly anti-human position. The ruling classes are recklessly moving toward the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict, thereby creating the real possibility of a nuclear Armageddon. The specter of planetary destruction arises from the insane policies of imperialist and capitalist governments. The recklessness of the ruling capitalist elite compels young people to ask whether they will be allowed any future at all.
   

The SBU specifically cites this document as proof of Bogdan Syrotiuk’s treasonable activity. But the text of this document conclusively refutes the charge that Bogdan and the YGBL are advancing a pro-Putin narrative.
Moreover, and most decisive, the Ukrainian regime does not present a scintilla of evidence to substantiate its absurd and lying claim that the World Socialist Web Site is a “Russian propaganda and information agency.” With this filthy slander, the Zelensky regime betrays—notwithstanding the ongoing war with Russia—the lingering influence of Stalinism’s rabid hatred of Trotskyism. As in Russia, the transfer of power in Ukraine from Stalinist bureaucrats to capitalist oligarchs has not required any change in the methodology of the political police. The same techniques of fabrication and slander, utilized by the Stalinist regime against Trotskyists in the era of the Moscow Trials and the terror of 1936-39, remain operative in Kiev.
Bogdan Syrotiuk stands accused of treason and faces the threat of a life-long prison term that is the equivalent of a death sentence. But the allegations against Bogdan are based entirely on articles and speeches he has posted on the World Socialist Web Site, in which he has declared his opposition, as a socialist internationalist, to the capitalist regimes of Zelensky and Putin and the ongoing war that has cost hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives.
The SBU indicts Bogdan for advancing in his speeches and writings posted on the World Socialist Web Site “which are accessible to everyone in the world, including citizens of Ukraine” information that exposes the reactionary character of the Ukrainian regime and the war.
The SBU declares that Bogdan’s “criminal actions were stopped only with the intervention of a law enforcement agency.” What a devastating self-exposure of the claims that the US-NATO proxy war is being waged to defend democracy in Ukraine.
The reality is that Ukraine is a fascistic dictatorship, which applies police methods to stop the expression of popular opposition to the policies that have brought untold suffering and death to the people.
The arrest of Bogdan Syrotiuk comes precisely at a point of mounting popular opposition to the Zelensky regime. On May 18, a new and vastly unpopular mobilization law that will vastly expand the recruitment dragnet of Ukrainian military goes into effect. Even the New York Times has expressed doubts about Zelensky’s ability “to find new troops to relieve a weary, often demoralized force.”
In an article posted on the World Socialist Web Site on April 30, Maxim Goldarb, a Ukrainian socialist who has been persecuted by the Zelensky regime, reported: “More and more Ukrainian men are desperately trying to flee the country, unwilling to die for someone else’s selfish purposes.”
He added:

It is not the rich minority, but the poor majority—the unemployed, workers, peasants, teachers, doctors, office workers—that will be sent into the bloody meat grinder. Now, with the adoption of the new law, the number of men deprived of basic human rights, who will be captured and hunted down like animals and sent to the front, will increase many times over.
The profits of those who benefit from this war will also increase many times over … These huge profits will be divided up between the military-industrial complex, its lobbyists in the American and European establishment, and the Ukrainian oligarchic top brass.

Bogdan Syrotiuk’s life is in danger. In the environment of terror that exists within Ukraine, he is deprived of all means to defend himself. Efforts to obtain competent legal representation have been undermined by government threats against defense lawyers. No less than five attorneys have declined to represent Bogdan because to do so would expose them to significant physical danger.
The significance of the fight to defend Bogdan and secure his freedom extends beyond Ukraine. His incarceration is yet another example of the growing international assault on democratic rights as imperialism escalates its military operations throughout the world. The political conspiracy to destroy Julian Assange set into motion a process that is replicated throughout the world.
Those who oppose and expose the crimes of the imperialist regimes are targeted for persecution by the state. The assault on basic democratic rights—first and foremost, freedom of thought and speech—is always justified on the basis of lies.
The opponents of Israel’s genocidal war against Gazans are denounced as anti-Semites, even when the protesters are Jewish. In the denunciation of Bogdan Syrotiuk as an agent of Russia for opposing the proxy war in Ukraine, the same lying method is at work.
The real reason for the arrest and persecution of Bogdan Syrotiuk is that he is fighting for the unity of the Ukrainian, Russian and international working class against the ruling capitalist elites of all countries. As Comrade Andrei Ritsky of the Russian branch of the Young Guard of Bolshevik Leninists explained so eloquently in a speech delivered at the May Day 2024 celebration held by the International Committee:

The only “crime” that Bogdan committed was his conviction that Ukraine can become truly free only through the independent struggle of the Ukrainian working class, acting together with the international working class against imperialism and war. He advanced a principled political position based on a Marxist understanding of the war, opposed to the fanatical worship of Ukrainian nationalism as well as the reactionary Russian nationalism of the Putin regime. Like our entire movement, he has fought for the unification of workers in Russia and Ukraine with the workers in the imperialist countries, to put an end to a fratricidal war that has claimed the lives of at least half a million Ukrainians and tens of thousands of Russians.

He concluded his remarks with a declaration of the fundamental perspective that underlies the work of the Fourth International:

No bourgeois regime is capable of resolving the crisis other than through war and destruction, because any other way would be contrary to its fundamental capitalist interests. The contradictions of capitalism cannot be resolved within national borders and on the basis of a defense of private property. Only the international working class armed with the program of world socialist revolution will be able to put an end to the wars and resolve the fundamental crisis. To do so, however, it must fight for its unity with its brothers and sisters around the world.

The International Committee of the Fourth International calls for a global campaign to demand the immediate release of Bogdan Syrotiuk from prison. The fight for Bogdan’s freedom must be taken up by workers, students and all those who are committed to the defense of democratic rights and opposed to the escalation of imperialist wars that, unless stopped, threaten humanity with a nuclear catastrophe.
Join the fight to Free Bogdan. Circulate this statement as widely as possible on social media. Bring this case to the attention of co-workers, fellow students, and friends. To sign a petition demanding Bogdan’s release, contribute funds toward the defense campaign, and become personally active in the fight for his freedom, go to wsws.org/freebogdan.

I've saved the $46k I need to buy a house. This includes stamp duty, conveyancer, and all other random fees associated with buying a house. This will be my first house, but it will also be an investment property. I can save about $1500 a fortnight.
How much extra money should I save? I imagine there will be some costs for fixing things and advertising before getting a tenant in the house.
Edit: The costs associated with buying the house (stamp duty, LMI, etc) are not a part of my question. I have all the money I need to buy a house right now, have gone through a broker, and have pre-approval. But if I buy right now, I'll have about $1k sitting in my bank account. That's enough to pay for my usual bills etc until I get paid again, or a tenant comes in. Is $1k enough, or should I save up something else? $10k? $20k?
Edit 2: Thank you everyone for the great advice so far, but can someone hit me with some tangible savings that I should have in addition to buying the house and related fees?

I came to the US on a students visa in 2021. I fell terribly sick in the very first week of coming to the US. I was my university's approved health insurance plan. I went to my university's hospital; got tested for numerous things; and accordingly got treated. I gave them my insurance and waited for my bill. I checked the hospital portal often and got no outstanding bill. To which I thought my insurance might have covered the cost but having heard all the fuss about inaccessibility to health in the US due to its cost I was still skeptical about it. I kept checking my mail and the hospital billing portal diligently for any bill that I might get for 1 and a half years.
I got my SSN in the beginning of 2022 and graduated in 2023. Just when I graduated I saw a debt in my credit history which lowered my credit down. I panicked, researched about what collection is, and yada yada, & figured it was from labcorp. Now the only time I had been to the hospital was in 2021 so if it was a legitimate bill, it had to be from that 1 visit.
From what I read online the collection company is legally needed to communicate the outstanding amount/try to collect the amount before filling for a collection against my credit. There had been no communication to me regarding this what so ever from any party involved. I checked my hospital bill on the portal and there was nothing outstanding.
First, I filled a dispute to two of three credit bureaus where it was reported, one of which removed the debt from my file. While Experian did not resolve the dispute, for which I contacted the debt collection company. I explained to them that I had received no communication for the bill/collection, and I am not sure what the bill is about. They said they had no contact information of me what so ever, neither my address, or my phone number, and that it was a medical bill of $592. This was later removed from my account.
Since it had been 2 years there was not way for me to put a claim for this against my insurance. I feel it was not my mistake that I had to cover it out of my pocket for a medical treatment while being insured(which I paid for). It was a mistake on their end to not communicate/send me a bill on time for me to be able to claim it.
Now the claim has reappeared from a different collection company exactly 3 years later and is affecting my credit. What can I do? Again, no communication was made from this other collection company before putting it up for collection. Can I go to the consumer court? or hire a lawyer? I can't have it showing up every year and reducing my credit for no reason.
TLDR: Got collection for a 2 year old medical bill without prior communication. Raised dispute, and it disappeared from credit history. The collection is added again to my credit history a year later. Seek help on what to do.
edit: Added TLDR.

AI has long been discussed in rationalist circles. There’s been a lot of focus on risks from artificial intelligence (particularly the idea that it might cause human extinction), but also the idea that artificial general intelligence might happen quite soon and subsequently transform society (e.g. supercharging economic growth in a technological singularity).
I’ve long found these arguments intriguing, and probably underrated by the public as a whole. I definitely don’t align myself with people like Steven Pinker who dismiss AI concerns entirely.
Nonetheless, I’ve noticed increasingly high confidence in beliefs of near-term transformative AI among rationalists. To be fair, it’s reasonable to update somewhat given recent advances like GPT-4. But among many, there is a belief that AI advances are the single most important thing happening right now. And among a minority, there are people with very extreme beliefs - such as quite high confidence that transformative AI is just a few years away, and/or that AI is very likely to kill us all.
My core arguments in this post are that firstly, from an “epistemic humility” or “outside view” perspective, we should be suspicious of confident views that the world is soon going to end (or change radically).
Secondly, the implications of the most radical views could cause people who hold them to inflict significant harm on themselves or others.

Who Believes In “AI Imminence”?

The single person I am most specifically critiquing is Eliezer Yudkowsky. Yudkowsky appears unwilling to give specific probabilities but writings like “Death With Dignity” has caused many including Scott Alexander to characterise him as believing that AI has a >90% chance of causing human extinction)
As a very prominent and very “doomy” rationalist, I worry that he may have convinced a fair number of people to share similar views, views which if taken seriously could hold its holders to feel depressed and/or make costly irrevocable decisions.
But though I think Yudkowsky deserves the most scrutiny, I don’t want to focus entirely on him.
Take Scott Alexander - he frames himself in the aforementioned link as “not as much of a doomer as some people”, yet gave a 33% probability (later adjusted downwards as a result of outside view considerations like those I raise in here) to “only” ~20%. While this leaves enough room for hope that it’s not as potentially dangerous a view as Yudkowsky’s, I agree with how the top Reddit comment in the original post said:

Is AI risk the only field where someone can write an article about how they’re not (much) of a doomer when they think that the risk of catastrophe/disasteextinction is 33%?

Beyond merely AI risk, claims about “transformative AI” date back to ideas about the “intelligent explosion” or “singularity” that are most popularly associated with Ray Kurzweil. A modern representation of this is Tom Davidson of Open Philanthropy, who wrote a report on takeoff speeds.
Other examples can be seen in (pseudo-)prediction markets popular with rationalists, such as Metaculus putting the median date of AGI at 2032, and Manifold Markets having a 17% chance of AI doom by 2100 (down from its peak of around 50% (!) in mid-2023).

Why Am I Sceptical?

My primary case for (moderate) scepticism is not about the object-level arguments around AI, but appealing to the “outside view”. My main arguments are:

• Superforecasters and financial markets are not giving high credence to transformative AI. Both groups have good track records, so we should strongly consider deferring to their views.
  
• The transformative AI argument is "fishy" (to borrow Will MacAskill’s argument against “The Most Important Century”). It implies that not only we are at an unusually pivotal time in history (perhaps the most important decade, let alone century), but that consequently, rationalists are perhaps the most important prophets in history. When your claims are that extraordinary, it seems much more likely that they're mistaken.
  
• The “inside view” arguments do not seem very robust to me. That is, they are highly speculative arguments that are primarily discussed among an insular group of people in usually relatively informal settings. I think you should be wary of any argument that emerges via this process, even if you can’t point to any specific way in which they are wrong.
  

Why I’m Against Highly Immodest Epistemology

However, maybe appealing to the “outside view” is incorrect? Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote a book, Inadequate Equiibria, which in large part argued against what he saw as excessive use of the “outside view”. He advises:

Try to spend most of your time thinking about the object level. If you’re spending more of your time thinking about your own reasoning ability and competence than you spend thinking about Japan’s interest rates and NGDP, or competing omega-6 vs. omega-3 metabolic pathways, you’re taking your eye off the ball.

I think Yudkowsky makes a fair point about being excessively modest. If you are forever doubting your own reasoning to the extent that you think you should defer to the majority of Americans who are creationists, you’ve gone too far.
But I think his case is increasingly weak the more radically immodest your views here. I’ll explain with the following analogy:
Suppose you were talking to someone who was highly confident in their new business idea. What is an appropriate use of a “modesty” argument cautioning against overconfidence?
A strong-form modesty argument would go something like “No new business idea could work, because if it could, someone would already have done it”. This is refuted by countless real-world examples, and I don’t think anyone actually believes in strong-form modesty.
A moderate-form modesty argument would go something like “Some new business ideas work, but most fail, even when their founders were quite confident in them. As an aspiring entrepreneur, you should think your chances of success in your new venture are similar to those of the reference class of aspiring entrepreneurs”.
The arguments against epistemic modesty in Inadequate Equilibria are mainly targeted against reasoning like this. And I think here there’s a case where we can have reasonable disagreement about the appropriate level of modesty. You may have some good reasons to believe that your idea is unusually good or that you are unusually likely to succeed as an entrepreneur. (Though a caveat: with too many degrees of freedom, I think you run the risk of leading yourself to whatever conclusion you like).
For the weak-form modesty argument, let’s further specify that your aspiring entrepreneur’s claim was “I’m over 90% confident that my business will make me the richest person in the world”.
To such a person, I would say: “Your claim is so incredibly unlikely a priori and so self-aggrandising that I feel comfortable in saying you’re overconfident without even needing to consider your arguments”.
That is basically what I feel about Eliezer Yudkowsky and AI.
Let’s take a minute to consider what the implications are if Yudkowsky is correctly calibrated about his beliefs in AI. For a long time, he was one of the few people in the world to be seriously concerned about it, and even now, with many more people concerned about AI risk, he stands out as having some of the highest confidence in doom.
If he’s right, then he’s arguably the most important prophet in history. Countless people throughout history have tried forecasting boon or bust (and almost always been wrong). But on arguably the most important question in human history - when we will go extinct and why - Yudkowsky was among the very few people to see it and easily the most forceful.
Indeed, I’d say this is a much more immodest claim than claiming your business idea will make you the richest person in the world. The title of the richest person in the world has been shared by numerous people throughout history, but “the most accurate prophet of human extinction” is a title that can only ever be held by one person.
I think Scott Alexander’s essay Epistemic Learned Helplessness teaches a good lesson here. Argument convincingness isn’t necessarily strongly correlated with the truth of a claim. If someone gives you what appears to be a strong argument for something that appears crazy, you should nonetheless remain highly sceptical.
Yet I feel like Yudkowsky wants to appeal to “argument convincingness” because that’s what he’s good at. He has spent decades honing his skills arguing on the internet, and much less at acquiring traditional credentials and prestige. “Thinking on the object level” sounds like it’s about being serious and truth-seeking, but I think in practice it’s about privileging convincing-sounding arguments and being a good internet debater above all other evidence.
A further concern I have about “argument convincingness” for AI is that there’s almost certainly a large “motivation gap” in favour of the production of pro-AI-risk arguments compared to anti-AI-risk arguments, with the worriers spending considerably more time and effort than the detractors. As Philip Trammel points out in his post “But Have They Engaged with The Arguments?, this is true of almost any relatively fringe position. This can make the apparent balance of “argumentative evidence” misleading in those cases, with AI no exception.
Finally, Yudkowsky’s case for immodesty depends partly on alleging he has a good track record of applying immodesty to “beat the experts”. But his main examples (a lightbox experiment and the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan) I don’t find that impressive given he could cherry-pick. Here’s an article alleging that Yudkowsky’s predictions have frequently between egregiously wrong and here’s another arguing that his Bank of Japan position in particular didn’t ultimately pan out.

Why I’m Also Sceptical of Moderately Immodest Epistemology

I think high-confidence predictions of doom (or utopia) are much more problematic than relatively moderate views - they are more likely to be wrong, and if taken seriously, more strongly imply that the believer should consider making radical, probably harmful life changes.
But I do still worry that the ability to contrast with super confident people like Yudkowsky lets the “not a total doomer” people off the hook a little too easily. I think it’s admirable that Scott Alexander seriously grappled with the fact that superforecasters disagreed with him and updated downwards based on that observation.
Still, let’s revisit the “aspiring entrepreneur” analogy - imagine they had instead said: “You know what, I’ve listened to your claims about modesty and agree that I’ve been overconfident. I now think there’s only a 20% chance that my business idea will make me the richest person in the world”.
Sure - they’ve moved in the right direction, but it’s easy to see that they’re still not doing modesty very well.
An anti-anti-AI risk argument Scott made (in MR Tries the Safe Uncertainly Fallacy) is that appealing to base rates leaves you vulnerable to “reference class tennis” where both sides can appeal to different reference classes, and the “only winning move is not to play”.
Yet in the case of our aspiring entrepreneur, I think the base rate argument of “extremely few people can become the richest person in the world” is very robust. If the entrepreneur tried to counter with “But I can come up with all sorts of other reference classes in which I come out more favourably! Reference class tennis! Engage with my object-level arguments!”, it would not be reasonable to throw up your hands and say “Well, I can’t come up with good counterarguments, so I guess you probably do have a 20% chance of becoming the richest person in the world then”.
I contend that “many people have predicted the end of the world and they’ve all been wrong” is another highly robust reference class. Yes, you can protest about “anthropic effects” or reasons why “this time is different”. And maybe the reasons why “this time is different” are indeed a lot better than usual. Still, I contend that you should start from a prior of overwhelming skepticism and only make small updates based on arguments you read. You should not go “I read these essays with convincing arguments about how we’re all going to die, I guess I just believe that now”.

What Should We Make Of Surveys Of AI Experts?

Surveys done of AI experts, as well as opinions of well-regarded experts like Geoffrey Hinton and Stewart Russell, have shown significant concerns about AI risk (example).
I think this is good evidence for taking AI risk seriously. One important thing it does is raise AI risk out of the reference class of garden-variety doomsday predictions/crazy-sounding theories that have no expert backing.
However, I think it’s still only moderately good evidence.
Firstly, I think we should not consider it as an “expert consensus” nearly as strong as say, the expert consensus on climate change. There is nothing like an IPCC for AI, for example. This is not a mature, academically rigorous field. I don’t think we should update too strongly from AI experts spending a few minutes filling in a survey. (See for instance this comment about the survey, showing how non-robust the answers given are, indicating the responders aren’t thinking super hard about the questions).
Secondly, I believe forecasting AI risk is a multi-disciplinary skill. Consider for instance asking physicists to predict the chances of human extinction due to nuclear war in the 1930s. They would have an advantage in predicting nuclear capabilities, but after nuclear weapons were developed, the reasons we haven’t had a nuclear war yet have much more to do with international relations than nuclear physics.
And maybe AGI is so radically different from the AI that exists today that perhaps asking AI researchers now about AI risk might have been like asking 19th-century musket manufacturers about the risk from a hypothetical future “super weapon”.
I think an instructive analogy were the failed neo-Malthusian predictions of the 1960s and 1970s, such as The Population Bomb or The Limits to Growth. Although I’m unable to find clear evidence of this, my impression is that these beliefs were quite mainstream among the most “obvious” expert class of biologists (The Population Bomb author Paul Ehlrich had a PhD in biology), and the primary critics tended to be in other fields like economics (most notably Julian Simon). Biologists had insights, but they also had blind spots. Any “expert survey” that only interviewed biologists would have missed crucial insights from other disciplines.

What Are The Potential Consequences Of Overconfidence?

People have overconfident beliefs all the time. Some people erroneously thought Hillary Clinton was ~99% likely to win the 2016 Presidential election. Does it matter that much if they’re overconfident about AI?
Well, suppose you were overconfident about Clinton. You probably didn’t do anything differently in your life, and the only real cost of your overconfidence was being unusually surprised on election day 2016. Even one of the people who was that confident in Clinton didn’t suffer any worse consequences than eating a bug on national television.
But take someone who is ~90% confident that AI will radically transform or destroy society (“singularity or extinction by 2040") and seriously acts like it.
Given that, it seems apparently reasonable to be much more short-term focused. You might choose to stop saving for retirement. You might forgo education on the basis that it will be obsolete soon. These are actions that some people have previously taken, are considering taking or are actually taking because of expectations of AI progress.
At a societal level, high confidence in short-term transformative AI implies that almost all non-AI related long-term planning that humanity does is probably a waste. The most notable example would be climate change. If AI either kills us or radically speeds up scientific and economic growth by the middle of the century, then it seems pretty stupid to be worrying about climate change. Indeed, we’re probably underconsuming fossil fuels that could be used to improve the lives of people right now.
At its worst, there is the possibility of AI-risk-motivated terrorism. Here’s a twitter thread from Emil Torres talking about this, noticeably this tweet in particular about minutes from an AI safety workshop “sending bombs” to OpenAI and DeepMind.
To be fair, I think it’s highly likely the people writing that were trolling. Still - if you’re a cold-blooded utilitarian bullet-biter with short timelines and high p(doom), I could easily see you rationalising such actions.
I want to be super careful about this - I don’t want to come across as claiming that terrorism is a particularly likely consequence of “AI dooming”, nor do I want to risk raising the probability of it by discussing it too much and planting the seed of it in someone’s head. But a community that takes small risks seriously should be cognizant of the possibility. This is a concern that I think anyone with a large audience and relatively extreme views (about AI or anything) should take into account.

Conclusion

This post has been kicking around in draft form since around the release of GPT-4 a year ago. At that time, there were a lot of breathless takes on Twitter about how AGI was just around the corner, Yudkowsky was appearing on a lot of podcasts saying we were all going to die, and I started to feel like lots of people had gone a bit far off on the deep end.
Since then I feel there’s a little bit of a vibe shift away from the most extreme scenarios (as exhibited in the Manifold extinction markets), as well as me personally probably overestimating how many people ever believed in them. I’ve found it hard to try to properly articulate the message: “You’re probably directionally correct relative to society as a whole, but some unspecified number of you have probably gone too far”.
Nonetheless, my main takeaways are:

• Eliezer Yudkowsky (these days) is probably causing harm, and people with moderate concerns about AI should distance themselves from him. Espousing views that we are all likely to die from AI should not be tolerated as a merely strong opinion, but as something that can cause meaningful harm to people who believe it. I feel this might actually be happening to some degree (I think it’s notable that e.g. the 80,000 Hours podcast has never interviewed him, despite interviewing plenty of other AI-risk-concerned people). But I would like to see more of a “Sister Souljah moment” where e.g. a prominent EA thought leader explicitly disavows him.
  
• Yudkowsky being the worst offender doesn't let everyone else off the hook. For instance, I think Scott Alexander is much better at taking modesty seriously, yet I don't think he takes it seriously enough.
  
• We should be generally suspicious of arguments for crazy-sounding things. I have not only become more suspicious of arguments about AI, but also other arguments relatively popular in rationalist or EA circles, but not so much outside it (think certain types of utilitarian arguments that imply that e.g. maybe insect welfare or the long-term future outweighs everything else). I appreciate that they might say something worth considering, and perhaps weak-form versions of them could be reasonable. But the heuristic of “You probably haven’t found the single most important thing ever” is something I think should be given more weight.