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2024.05.14 20:01 Lordzoot Good Habits? A Review of Habit Rouge EDT, Rouge Prive and the Parfum
For many, Guerlain’s Habit Rouge represents a high watermark in perfumery. Since its original release in 1965, the composition has been beloved by gentlemen (and ladies) across the world. It is also a well known favourite of many of the most well regarded perfume historians and reviewers out there and, because of that, one could well argue that there is precious little further useful opinion that can be added to the existing cannon (and they may well be right!).
Still, Jean-Paul Guerlain’s multi-faceted composition has been no stranger to a remix over the years and, since Delphine Jelk took over from Thierry Wasser as in-house perfumer at the historic French house, she has managed to deliver a staggering three new takes on the fragrance in as many years. What better opportunity could there be, therefore, to undertake both a reappraisal of the original release and, in doing so, compare it to some of the new kids on the block? Note: I have not sampled the first of Jelk’s flankers, 2022’s Habit Rouge L'Instinct but, given the almost unanimous negativity surrounding it, it’s not high on my hit list! We’ll be looking at Rouge Prive and the Parfum today.
Habit Rouge EDT (1965)
The concept behind Habit Rouge (or ‘Red Coat’, if translated in to English from its native language) was to create a perfume that brought to mind the jackets worn by the landed gentry when they went hunting. In the UK, we’re no stranger to this nefarious practice - our own fox hunting aristocrats also wore red coats and, despite now being banned, the idea of chasing helpless creatures to their deaths is still a subject of debate in our national politics (with right wing politicians often promising to offer a ‘free vote’ to MPs on the issue to energise their base).
As an animal lover myself, this is perhaps the only element of Habit Rouge I find somewhat jarring. There is nothing within this perfume which brings to mind sport, adrenaline, blood, or violence. I find it somewhat curious, consequently, that Guerlain sought to relate it to hunting. The only thing wearers of Habit Rouge were likely to be chasing on its release were sexual partners!
That statement isn’t made wholly in jest either. Habit Rouge is a gentleman’s fragrance, but it carries within its structure not only aspects of formality and traditional masculinity, but also sensuality and sensitivity. It is, as such, a fragrance well suited to old fashioned romantics. Indeed, if it didn’t have these traits, I’d argue that it wouldn’t have survived for the almost 60 years that it has. When you think about it, it’s almost incredible that, despite how radically concepts of masculinity have changed over the years, Habit Rouge has still been a regular seller for Guerlain, with devotees now spanning across 5 generations.
Created to be the younger brother to the company’s 1925 release, Shalimar it, like its sibling, contains a citrus top note, which descends into a floral heart, before culminating in a vanillic leather and amber base. Habit Rouge is not simply a three card trick, however, and its complete run of notes can be summarised as follows (as per Basenotes):
Top Notes: bergamot, lemon, rosewood, basil, pimento
Heart Notes: sandalwood, carnation, patchouli, cedar, rose, cinnamon
Base Notes: vanilla, amber, moss, leather, benzoin, labdanum, olibanum
When it comes to the head of the perfume, the real star of the show is the bergamot, which radiates wonderfully off the skin when first sprayed. Whilst it is effervescent, though, it is also a powdery affair. In fact, it can most accurately be described as being akin to orange sherbet - fizzing whilst maintaining a chalkiness. It is warm and reassuring as opposed to enthusiastic. It also maintains a cologne like structure, however, by incorporating herbal and spicy notes through the use of basil and rosewood.
This accord is then joined to a rose and carnation-dominant middle phase, through which the powdered facets of the fragrance continue to run, and through which the fragrance begins to show its romantic side.
Finally, the dry down of the fragrance provides a semi-sweet backdrop with the vanilla taking the edge away from the traditionally masculine moss and leather accords and combining with the rest of the ingredients to produce a soft, light amber.
It is not hard to see, in this context, why Habit Rouge has continued to be successful over the years - it, essentially, captures hearts and minds because it resonates with the personality of its wearer in a way that other traditional masculine fragrances can sometimes struggle to do (as they were often, like their owners of the period, more buttoned up).
Habit Rouge - Rouge Prive (2023)
That doesn’t mean that the EdT of Habit Rouge smells like it was composed yesterday, however. It just means that it has aged like a fine wine as opposed to being the perfume equivalent of a kipper tie. In fact, if it were any item of clothing, I’d compare it to a 1960s slim lapelled suit - of its time, but still stylish today.
Still, as the years have gone by, the term ‘legibility’ has become more and more important in the perfume industry, and there now seems to be a distinct trend towards the creation of perfumes whose formulas are more streamlined than Habit Rouge. Or to put it another way, perfumers are being encouraged to reduce the number of notes in a perfume’s composition, with the aim of producing a more direct product. For lovers of vintage fragrances, legibility can be an anathema but, personally, I have no issue with the principle behind the concept. Nor it appears, does Delphine Jelk. Enter Habit Rouge Rouge Prive.
Top Notes:Bergamot, Ginger
Middle Notes: Orange Blossom, Iris
Base Notes: Leather, Patchouli, Vanilla
As can be seen from the notes list, Rouge Prive maintains the structure of Habit Rouge (bergamot, floral, vanillic leather), but switches out or culls a number of the traditional accords that were contained within the original. Gone are the cologne-esque elements. Gone too are the powdery rose and carnation. The leather, meanwhile, has been amped up and modernised - more akin to Tom Ford’s Tuscan Leather than Knize 10. Whisper it quietly, but it also seems that Jelk has snuck an oud accord in to the base too.
Given the number of changes, you could be forgiven for thinking that Rouge Prive would end up smelling completely different to the EdT, but fans of the OG need not worry - this is still unmistakably Habit Rouge. To paraphrase Persolaise (my favourite reviewer of perfumes), it’s like the whole perfume has simply been redrawn with clean bold lines. The bergamot continues to shimmer and, in spite of the florals being listed as Orange Blossom and Iris, the ultimate accord generated is still interpreted by my nose as being a rose. It is very much a rouge perfume as opposed to an orange or purple one (which is, incidentally, roughly what you get if you combine an iris hue and orange on a colour wheel…).
Where Rouge Prive differs to the EdT is in its brute strength. The leather note really does have a serious kick to it and, given that, the perfume is pulled from the bottom up, as opposed to the top diffusing off the skin to reveal the heart.
Whilst I’ve always found the EdT to perform quite well, the longevity of the Prive is genuinely outstanding, again due to the material in the base. Pleasingly though, the dry down still does maintain the powdered amber facets contained within the original. It’s a superb flanker that updates Habit Rouge without necessarily ripping up the original composition.
Habit Rouge Parfum (2024)
Not to rest on their laurels, Guerlain have now revisited Habit Rouge again in 2024, introducing a parfum version to go alongside new stablemates Vetiver Parfum and L’Homme Ideal Parfum.
I’ll say in advance that I’m a little sceptical of the allure of parfums myself, as I often find that the actual performance difference between fragrance concentrations can be completely counter-intuitive (I have EdTs that vastly out-perform EDPs and Parfums, both in terms of silage and longevity). In addition, given that Rouge Prive was already quite beastly, the necessity for a parfum to be made only a year later seems curious to me.
Parking those views for the moment though, the theme across these three new releases appears to be alcohol. In the case of Habit Rouge, the drink of choice is listed as rum, although there seems to be confusion in that regard, with Jelk being quoted in the marketing as saying:
For Habit Rouge Le Parfum, I Created a leathery vanilla liqueur with plenty of bold bourbon-inspired intensity
Perhaps Guerlain are suggesting that the perfume has been matured in bourbon casks? Hmm. In any event, the notes list for this one is as follows:
Bergamot, Vanilla, Rum, Patchouli
Well, I did say perfumers were streamlining their notes list, didn’t I!
What’s most striking to me about the Parfum is, firstly, how base heavy it is (we’re talking sub-woofer level) but, secondly, how patchouli dominant it is - there’s a definite chocolate element in that respect, but my nose also detects something slightly medicinal, smoked, and perhaps even burnt (think coffee beans). When combined with the vanilla, the result is a perfume that very much lies within the domain of the gourmand.
This is somewhat a blessing and a curse - if you’re not a particular fan of the EdT or Prive’s floral elements, you’re likely to get along a lot better with the Parfum. At the same time though, I’d argue that the floral heart of Habit Rouge is, to a large extent, key to its DNA, and vastly reducing the components that make this element ‘sing’ lead to a very different fragrance profile.
My second critique is that the perfume, generally, feels less balanced than Rouge Prive. I have no issue with the concept of a Habit Rouge that focuses on patchouli - readers of my previous pieces will know that I’m a huge fan of the note - I just wished that, on a technical level, the Parfum still maintained a decent top end. As it is, the whole thing sits very deep against the skin, with any radiance from the bergamot being buried by the heavier materials. This ultimately leads to a fragrance that, rather than being a sparkling rouge, comes across as a heavy-set chocolate and beige. Because of that, I can’t decide whether or not I’ve truly fallen for the Parfum.
That being said, you honestly couldn’t go wrong with any one of these three and I’ve no doubt they’ll appeal to different elements of the fragrance market. I look forward to Jelk’s next flanker in 2025, even if these variations are becoming a little bit akin to Marge Simpson’s Chanel jacket…!
submitted by Lordzoot to fragrance [link] [comments]
Still, Jean-Paul Guerlain’s multi-faceted composition has been no stranger to a remix over the years and, since Delphine Jelk took over from Thierry Wasser as in-house perfumer at the historic French house, she has managed to deliver a staggering three new takes on the fragrance in as many years. What better opportunity could there be, therefore, to undertake both a reappraisal of the original release and, in doing so, compare it to some of the new kids on the block? Note: I have not sampled the first of Jelk’s flankers, 2022’s Habit Rouge L'Instinct but, given the almost unanimous negativity surrounding it, it’s not high on my hit list! We’ll be looking at Rouge Prive and the Parfum today.
Habit Rouge EDT (1965)
The concept behind Habit Rouge (or ‘Red Coat’, if translated in to English from its native language) was to create a perfume that brought to mind the jackets worn by the landed gentry when they went hunting. In the UK, we’re no stranger to this nefarious practice - our own fox hunting aristocrats also wore red coats and, despite now being banned, the idea of chasing helpless creatures to their deaths is still a subject of debate in our national politics (with right wing politicians often promising to offer a ‘free vote’ to MPs on the issue to energise their base).
As an animal lover myself, this is perhaps the only element of Habit Rouge I find somewhat jarring. There is nothing within this perfume which brings to mind sport, adrenaline, blood, or violence. I find it somewhat curious, consequently, that Guerlain sought to relate it to hunting. The only thing wearers of Habit Rouge were likely to be chasing on its release were sexual partners!
That statement isn’t made wholly in jest either. Habit Rouge is a gentleman’s fragrance, but it carries within its structure not only aspects of formality and traditional masculinity, but also sensuality and sensitivity. It is, as such, a fragrance well suited to old fashioned romantics. Indeed, if it didn’t have these traits, I’d argue that it wouldn’t have survived for the almost 60 years that it has. When you think about it, it’s almost incredible that, despite how radically concepts of masculinity have changed over the years, Habit Rouge has still been a regular seller for Guerlain, with devotees now spanning across 5 generations.
Created to be the younger brother to the company’s 1925 release, Shalimar it, like its sibling, contains a citrus top note, which descends into a floral heart, before culminating in a vanillic leather and amber base. Habit Rouge is not simply a three card trick, however, and its complete run of notes can be summarised as follows (as per Basenotes):
Top Notes: bergamot, lemon, rosewood, basil, pimento
Heart Notes: sandalwood, carnation, patchouli, cedar, rose, cinnamon
Base Notes: vanilla, amber, moss, leather, benzoin, labdanum, olibanum
When it comes to the head of the perfume, the real star of the show is the bergamot, which radiates wonderfully off the skin when first sprayed. Whilst it is effervescent, though, it is also a powdery affair. In fact, it can most accurately be described as being akin to orange sherbet - fizzing whilst maintaining a chalkiness. It is warm and reassuring as opposed to enthusiastic. It also maintains a cologne like structure, however, by incorporating herbal and spicy notes through the use of basil and rosewood.
This accord is then joined to a rose and carnation-dominant middle phase, through which the powdered facets of the fragrance continue to run, and through which the fragrance begins to show its romantic side.
Finally, the dry down of the fragrance provides a semi-sweet backdrop with the vanilla taking the edge away from the traditionally masculine moss and leather accords and combining with the rest of the ingredients to produce a soft, light amber.
It is not hard to see, in this context, why Habit Rouge has continued to be successful over the years - it, essentially, captures hearts and minds because it resonates with the personality of its wearer in a way that other traditional masculine fragrances can sometimes struggle to do (as they were often, like their owners of the period, more buttoned up).
Habit Rouge - Rouge Prive (2023)
That doesn’t mean that the EdT of Habit Rouge smells like it was composed yesterday, however. It just means that it has aged like a fine wine as opposed to being the perfume equivalent of a kipper tie. In fact, if it were any item of clothing, I’d compare it to a 1960s slim lapelled suit - of its time, but still stylish today.
Still, as the years have gone by, the term ‘legibility’ has become more and more important in the perfume industry, and there now seems to be a distinct trend towards the creation of perfumes whose formulas are more streamlined than Habit Rouge. Or to put it another way, perfumers are being encouraged to reduce the number of notes in a perfume’s composition, with the aim of producing a more direct product. For lovers of vintage fragrances, legibility can be an anathema but, personally, I have no issue with the principle behind the concept. Nor it appears, does Delphine Jelk. Enter Habit Rouge Rouge Prive.
Top Notes:Bergamot, Ginger
Middle Notes: Orange Blossom, Iris
Base Notes: Leather, Patchouli, Vanilla
As can be seen from the notes list, Rouge Prive maintains the structure of Habit Rouge (bergamot, floral, vanillic leather), but switches out or culls a number of the traditional accords that were contained within the original. Gone are the cologne-esque elements. Gone too are the powdery rose and carnation. The leather, meanwhile, has been amped up and modernised - more akin to Tom Ford’s Tuscan Leather than Knize 10. Whisper it quietly, but it also seems that Jelk has snuck an oud accord in to the base too.
Given the number of changes, you could be forgiven for thinking that Rouge Prive would end up smelling completely different to the EdT, but fans of the OG need not worry - this is still unmistakably Habit Rouge. To paraphrase Persolaise (my favourite reviewer of perfumes), it’s like the whole perfume has simply been redrawn with clean bold lines. The bergamot continues to shimmer and, in spite of the florals being listed as Orange Blossom and Iris, the ultimate accord generated is still interpreted by my nose as being a rose. It is very much a rouge perfume as opposed to an orange or purple one (which is, incidentally, roughly what you get if you combine an iris hue and orange on a colour wheel…).
Where Rouge Prive differs to the EdT is in its brute strength. The leather note really does have a serious kick to it and, given that, the perfume is pulled from the bottom up, as opposed to the top diffusing off the skin to reveal the heart.
Whilst I’ve always found the EdT to perform quite well, the longevity of the Prive is genuinely outstanding, again due to the material in the base. Pleasingly though, the dry down still does maintain the powdered amber facets contained within the original. It’s a superb flanker that updates Habit Rouge without necessarily ripping up the original composition.
Habit Rouge Parfum (2024)
Not to rest on their laurels, Guerlain have now revisited Habit Rouge again in 2024, introducing a parfum version to go alongside new stablemates Vetiver Parfum and L’Homme Ideal Parfum.
I’ll say in advance that I’m a little sceptical of the allure of parfums myself, as I often find that the actual performance difference between fragrance concentrations can be completely counter-intuitive (I have EdTs that vastly out-perform EDPs and Parfums, both in terms of silage and longevity). In addition, given that Rouge Prive was already quite beastly, the necessity for a parfum to be made only a year later seems curious to me.
Parking those views for the moment though, the theme across these three new releases appears to be alcohol. In the case of Habit Rouge, the drink of choice is listed as rum, although there seems to be confusion in that regard, with Jelk being quoted in the marketing as saying:
For Habit Rouge Le Parfum, I Created a leathery vanilla liqueur with plenty of bold bourbon-inspired intensity
Perhaps Guerlain are suggesting that the perfume has been matured in bourbon casks? Hmm. In any event, the notes list for this one is as follows:
Bergamot, Vanilla, Rum, Patchouli
Well, I did say perfumers were streamlining their notes list, didn’t I!
What’s most striking to me about the Parfum is, firstly, how base heavy it is (we’re talking sub-woofer level) but, secondly, how patchouli dominant it is - there’s a definite chocolate element in that respect, but my nose also detects something slightly medicinal, smoked, and perhaps even burnt (think coffee beans). When combined with the vanilla, the result is a perfume that very much lies within the domain of the gourmand.
This is somewhat a blessing and a curse - if you’re not a particular fan of the EdT or Prive’s floral elements, you’re likely to get along a lot better with the Parfum. At the same time though, I’d argue that the floral heart of Habit Rouge is, to a large extent, key to its DNA, and vastly reducing the components that make this element ‘sing’ lead to a very different fragrance profile.
My second critique is that the perfume, generally, feels less balanced than Rouge Prive. I have no issue with the concept of a Habit Rouge that focuses on patchouli - readers of my previous pieces will know that I’m a huge fan of the note - I just wished that, on a technical level, the Parfum still maintained a decent top end. As it is, the whole thing sits very deep against the skin, with any radiance from the bergamot being buried by the heavier materials. This ultimately leads to a fragrance that, rather than being a sparkling rouge, comes across as a heavy-set chocolate and beige. Because of that, I can’t decide whether or not I’ve truly fallen for the Parfum.
That being said, you honestly couldn’t go wrong with any one of these three and I’ve no doubt they’ll appeal to different elements of the fragrance market. I look forward to Jelk’s next flanker in 2025, even if these variations are becoming a little bit akin to Marge Simpson’s Chanel jacket…!
2024.05.14 15:29 macjr82 AB's Origin Story
 | Credit to "Friends of Anthony Bourdain" FB page: submitted by macjr82 to AnthonyBourdain [link] [comments] “So, there I was, age 44. I was still dunking french fries at Brasserie Les Halles, which I thought was a pretty good gig at the time. But, there was this little free paper they gave out on corners in a little box called The New York Press. I thought, I’m going to write something that will entertain other cooks, maybe I’ll get a hundred bucks, and my fry cook will find this funny. So, I wrote that first piece, that first version of [Kitchen Confidential] with the intention of being published by the New York Press and making 100 bucks, and being a hero to a few fry cooks in New York. I wrote it and I sent it to The New York Press… So, every week I’d run to the corner. ‘Oh, I’m gonna be in the free paper!’ and I wasn’t in there. And, in a moment of frustration and possible inebriation, I mentioned this to my mom who said, ‘Well, you should send it to The New Yorker. I know somebody there. They’ll read it.’ And I’m thinking, what is the statistical likelihood ever, even if you’re represented? There’s no chance. Ever. Out of alcohol-fueled hubris and on the insistence of my mom, I stuffed a copy, a print of this thing I’d written into an envelope and sent it off to The New Yorker, and thought that’s the last I will ever hear of this. Then, a month and a half later, the kitchen phone rings, and it’s David Remnick, the publisher from The New Yorker saying we’d like to run this piece. And when it ran, it transformed my life within two days... Everything changed. Everything. From that point on.” –Bourdain Photo: Anthony Bourdain outside of Les Halles in New York City, early 2000s Quote: The New Yorker Festival, 2017 • • • |
2024.05.14 13:43 Anonymotron42 The Unofficial Rush R50 Reddit Daily Song Poll #135: Secret Touch
Secret Touch is the eighth song on the seventeenth studio album Vapor Trails (2002). How do you rank this one? The choices range from skippable (You can almost see the circuits blowing) to superb (The treasure of a life).
Writing credits: Music: Geddy Lee, Alex Lifeson, Lyrics: Neil Peart
Concurrent band member quote: "This is a bit of an extravaganza. We built the song around these repeating bass chords that I thought sounded like French horns. The tune has a hypnotic feel, and because we weren't happy just enjoying that feel, we had to smack it up with some power. When we get to the middle section and all hell breaks loose, there are these stuttering bass punctuations. I double-tracked them, but on one of the tracks I went in and digitally truncated the notes to make them sound really abrupt and punchy." -Geddy to Karl Coryat of Bass Player Magazine (July 2002)
Rush Official YouTube Channel link
This track was released as a radio promo single in 2002, reaching number 25 on the US Mainstream Rock chart.
View Poll
submitted by Anonymotron42 to rush [link] [comments]
Writing credits: Music: Geddy Lee, Alex Lifeson, Lyrics: Neil Peart
Concurrent band member quote: "This is a bit of an extravaganza. We built the song around these repeating bass chords that I thought sounded like French horns. The tune has a hypnotic feel, and because we weren't happy just enjoying that feel, we had to smack it up with some power. When we get to the middle section and all hell breaks loose, there are these stuttering bass punctuations. I double-tracked them, but on one of the tracks I went in and digitally truncated the notes to make them sound really abrupt and punchy." -Geddy to Karl Coryat of Bass Player Magazine (July 2002)
Rush Official YouTube Channel link
This track was released as a radio promo single in 2002, reaching number 25 on the US Mainstream Rock chart.
View Poll
2024.05.14 02:41 ceedotare French drain quote
Just got quoted 4500$ for a French drain run off. 160 feet of pipe plus 100 feet of perforated pipe. 4 collection boxes bus regrade and raising valve boxes. Is this a good price? Located in NJ
submitted by ceedotare to landscaping [link] [comments]
2024.05.14 01:09 firsthomeFL advice for impact window + door replacement?
my basic little one story cinderblock house in florida is ~25 years old, with single pane vinyl windows. for humidity, noise, and energy cost reasons, i would love to change them out. it would be nice if they would add to resale value, but i dont know if that's really a thing i can expect any return on?
the list:
any recommendations or advice - be it approach, vendors, or things to keep in mind? renovation windows vs new construction? it sounds like big box stores are an option but have their own issues, but also, specialty companies are a price tier i cant entertain.
my county requires impact windows and doors, and permits for both, but as the homeowner i can also pull them myself if i am doing the work. i don't mind doing them slowly and one or two at a time, if that's a reasonable approach for someone without a GC in the family - but i will hire someone to help with what i should.
i would appreciate any advice folks have... even if its what not to do - i know those lessons are expensive, too.
submitted by firsthomeFL to Renovations [link] [comments]
the list:
- seven large windows
- two smaller / side windows for a bay-window style outcrop in the kitchen
- two sets of very basic french doors that i can see daylight around even with added weatherstripping
- a front door that is a little worn and i don't love - but is tolerable
any recommendations or advice - be it approach, vendors, or things to keep in mind? renovation windows vs new construction? it sounds like big box stores are an option but have their own issues, but also, specialty companies are a price tier i cant entertain.
my county requires impact windows and doors, and permits for both, but as the homeowner i can also pull them myself if i am doing the work. i don't mind doing them slowly and one or two at a time, if that's a reasonable approach for someone without a GC in the family - but i will hire someone to help with what i should.
i would appreciate any advice folks have... even if its what not to do - i know those lessons are expensive, too.
2024.05.13 21:40 maaaxheadroom Christian friend playing off the fear of Hell.
A friend of mine posted the following wall of text on Facebook. I feel the need to respond somehow but I’m not sure what to say. All these years later I still fear Hell and this post bothers me on a moral level.
Should I counter with “why would a loving god do this?” Should I refute the quotes which I doubt? Should I ask why Christians seem to relish the idea of people going to Hell?
submitted by maaaxheadroom to exchristian [link] [comments]
Should I counter with “why would a loving god do this?” Should I refute the quotes which I doubt? Should I ask why Christians seem to relish the idea of people going to Hell?
“FAMOUS ATHEISTS' LAST WORDS BEFORE DEATH: 1. ANTON LEVEY—Author of the Satanic Bible and high priest of the religion dedicated to the worship of Satan. One of his famous quotes was: “There is a beast in man that needs to be exercised, not exorcised”. His dying words were: "Oh my, oh my, what have I done, there is something very wrong. . . there is something very wrong.”
- GANDHI—At his death, he said, “For the first time in 50 years, I find myself in the slough of despond. All about me is darkness. . .I am praying for light.”
- THOMAS PAYNE—The leading atheistic writer in American colonies: "Stay with me, for God's sake; I cannot bear to be left alone , O Lord, help me! O God, what have I done to suffer so much? What will become of me hereafter? I would give worlds if I had them, that The Age of Reason had never been published. 0 Lord, help me! Christ, help me! No, don't leave; stay with me! Send even a child to stay with me; for I am on the edge of hell here alone. If ever the Devil had an agent, I have been that one."
- SIR THOMAS SCOTT—Chancellor of England: "Until this moment I thought there was neither a God nor a hell. Now I know and feel that there are both, and I am doomed to perdition by the just judgment of the Almighty."
- VOLTAIRE—famous anti-christian atheist: "I have swallowed nothing but smoke. I have intoxicated myself with the incense that turned my head. I am abandoned by God and man.” He said to his physician, Dr. Fochin: “I will give you half of what I am worth if you will give me six months of life." When he was told this was not possible, he said “Then I shall die and go to hell!" His nurse said: “For all the money in Europe I wouldn’t want to see another unbeliever die! All night long he cried for forgiveness.”
- ROBERT INGERSOLL—American writer and orator during the Golden Age of Free Thought: "O God, if there be a God, save my soul, if I have a soul!" Some say it was said this way: "Oh God, if there be a God, save my soul, if I have a soul, from hell, if there be a hell!
- DAVID HUME—Atheist philosopher famous for his philosophy of empiricism and skepticism of religion: He cried loud on his death bed "I am in flames!" It is said his desperation was a horrible scene.
- NAPOLEON BONAPARTE—French emperor who, like Adolf Hitler, brought death to millions to satisfy his greedy, power-mad, selfish ambitions for world conquest: "I die before my time, and my body will be given back to the earth. Such is the fate of him who has been called the great Napoleon. What an abyss between my deep misery and the eternal kingdom of Christ!”
- SIR FRANCIS NEWPORT—Head of an English Atheist club, to those gathered around his deathbed: "You need not tell me there is no God, for I know there is one, and that I am in his presence! You need not tell me there is no hell. I feel myself already slipping. Wretches, cease your idle talk about there being hope for me! I know I am lost forever! Oh, that fire! Oh, the insufferable pangs of hell! Oh, that I could lie for a thousand years upon the fire that is never quenched, to purchase the favor of God and be united to Him again. But it is a fruitless wish. Millions and millions of years will bring me no nearer the end of my torments than one poor hour. Oh, eternity, eternity forever and forever! Oh, the insufferable pangs of Hell!”
- CHARLES IX—The French king. Urged on by his mother, he gave the order for the massacre of the French Huguenots, in which 15,000 souls were slaughtered in Paris alone and 100,000 in other sections of France, for no other reason than that they loved Christ. The guilty king suffered miserably for years after that event. He finally died, bathed in blood bursting from his veins. To his physicians, he said in his last hours: "Asleep or awake, I see the mangled forms of the Huguenots passing before me. They drop with blood. They point at their open wounds. Oh! That I had spared at least the little infants at the bosom! What blood! I know not where I am. How will all this end? What shall I do? I am lost forever! I know it. Oh, I have done wrong."
- DAVID STRAUSS—Leading representative of German rationalism, after spending a lifetime erasing belief in God from the minds of others: "My philosophy leaves me utterly forlorn! I feel like one caught in the merciless jaws of an automatic machine, not knowing at what time one of its great hammers may crush me!"
- JOSEF STALIN—Soviet Georgian revolutionary and politician. In a Newsweek interview with Svetlana Stalin, the daughter of Josef Stalin, she told of her father's death: "My father died a difficult and terrible death. . .God grants an easy death only to the just. At what seemed the very last moment, he suddenly opened his eyes and cast a glance over everyone in the room. It was a terrible glance, insane or perhaps angry. His left hand was raised, as though he were pointing to something above and bringing down a curse on us all. The gesture was full of menace. . .the next moment he was dead."
- CAESAR BORGIA—Italian nobleman, politician, and cardinal: "While I lived, I provided for everything but death; now I must die, and am unprepared to die."
- THOMAS HOBBS—Political philosopher: "I say again, if I had the whole world at my disposal, I would give it to live one day. I am about to take a leap into the dark."
BELOVED, compare these last words from atheists, with these last words, from these saints of God:
THE APOSTLE PAUL: “O death, where is thy sting?”
KING DAVID: “Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no Evil.”
AUGUSTUS MONTAGUE TOPLADY (1710-1778): Toplady will ever be famous as the author of one of the most evangelical hymns of the eighteenth century, "Rock of Ages," which was first published in 1776. During the final illness, Toplady was greatly supported by the consolations of the gospel: "The consolations of God, to so unworthy a wretch, are so abundant that he leaves me nothing to pray for but their continuance." Near his last, awaking from a sleep, he said: "Oh, what delights! Who can fathom the joy of the third heaven? The sky is clear, there is no cloud; come Lord Jesus, come quickly!" He died saying:"No mortal man can live after the glories which God has manifested to my soul."
Lastly, JESUS CHRIST said: “I Am the Resurrection and the Life. He that believeth on Me, though he were dead, yet shall he live.”
Only fools never learn from history, and it's amazing that even in our days, with all these facts on our fingertips, someone with a mind can devote his entire life to a delusion, and want everyone to know that there is no God. No wonder the bible says,
"Only fools say in their hearts, there is no God." (Psalm 14:1).“
Copied from Christian Page
2024.05.13 18:49 shaneka69 KEEP GOING
KEEP GOING
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2024.05.13 17:38 Andromeda_Kane Having your cake and eating it too: Adora and Pseudo-advocacy
everything that follows is my own opinion based on my perceptions, and shouldn't be taken as the ultimate truth or fact. I do not and cannot know the content of someone's heart or head
Disclaimer: Adora raising funds for a family in Palestine IS a good thing. Yes, we have some questions on the legitimacy, and it is on adora to make sure it's safe, but if the money is ending up in the hands of someone in need, then i will never degrade the results, even if i critique the how and the why
Let's start with Adora's most recent video, which both betrays her shocking lack of education, and how incredibly unserious she is about helping the family she 'adopted'.
I encourage you to watch it so you know I'm not misrepresentating it
It depicts Haley Baylee in the gaudy dress she wore to the met gala saying the famous quote Marie Antionette (I'm confident i spelled this right, sorry to the rich people fandom if i didn't) never said "let them eat cake".
this quote is attributed as a taunt to those who made it to their gates during part of the french revolution. Those people were starving, without the bread that was a staple of their food. Very clearly "let them eat cake" is not a genuine nor gracious response to "I'm starving and i need bread". Sorry for the EXTREMELY brief summary of an EXTREMELY complex affair*
Adora has Haley Baylee set in front of emergency relief tents that are supposed to be aiding Palestinian refugees. The video then cuts to her gofundme screenshot of the family she's 'adopted'.
The implication of the video CLEARLY being "let [this family] eat cake" the cake being the funds go flee.
This clearly demonstrates that A) she doesn't know the fate of the original person who [didn't] say this, 2) she doesn't understand the snobbish skull duggery that this quote represents AND b) she doesn't realize she's accurately representing how completely disconnected she is from the people she's attempting to fundraise for.
Adora, i will remind you Marie had a french kiss with a guillotine shortly after this quote "occured".
Not to mention, removing the tactlessness of the video in question, the video itself doesn't do anything. It won't maintain attention, it won't benefit her movement, it doesn't effectively make a pathos based argument. That video will not "pull at the heartstrings" and likely took her no more than ten minutes to make.
Her complete laziness is fucking shocking.
"I have a vagina" girl, what? This is what people talk about when they point out "[cis] women wouldn't make a topic like this". Bro, this isn't going to challenge anyone's "problematic ideologies". You are only ever going to have two arguments to your opps. Intersex conditions (still remaining uneducated and without advocacy for those who experience it) and just the definition of vagina.
You will not convince anyone because you're incapable of making a point. This is literally just a shock value background.
Adora ALSO pointed out both in her own discord and her live that she wants to focus on her own experiences. Which isn't going to benefit the groups she continues to leave behind or expressly harms herself.
On a side note, the met gala being compared to the Capitol in hunger games is SO APT, and i don't think adora realizes she not only lives in the Capitol, she's Caesar Flickerman.
submitted by Andromeda_Kane to adorable_SNARK [link] [comments]
Disclaimer: Adora raising funds for a family in Palestine IS a good thing. Yes, we have some questions on the legitimacy, and it is on adora to make sure it's safe, but if the money is ending up in the hands of someone in need, then i will never degrade the results, even if i critique the how and the why
Let's start with Adora's most recent video, which both betrays her shocking lack of education, and how incredibly unserious she is about helping the family she 'adopted'.
I encourage you to watch it so you know I'm not misrepresentating it
It depicts Haley Baylee in the gaudy dress she wore to the met gala saying the famous quote Marie Antionette (I'm confident i spelled this right, sorry to the rich people fandom if i didn't) never said "let them eat cake".
this quote is attributed as a taunt to those who made it to their gates during part of the french revolution. Those people were starving, without the bread that was a staple of their food. Very clearly "let them eat cake" is not a genuine nor gracious response to "I'm starving and i need bread". Sorry for the EXTREMELY brief summary of an EXTREMELY complex affair*
Adora has Haley Baylee set in front of emergency relief tents that are supposed to be aiding Palestinian refugees. The video then cuts to her gofundme screenshot of the family she's 'adopted'.
The implication of the video CLEARLY being "let [this family] eat cake" the cake being the funds go flee.
This clearly demonstrates that A) she doesn't know the fate of the original person who [didn't] say this, 2) she doesn't understand the snobbish skull duggery that this quote represents AND b) she doesn't realize she's accurately representing how completely disconnected she is from the people she's attempting to fundraise for.
Adora, i will remind you Marie had a french kiss with a guillotine shortly after this quote "occured".
Not to mention, removing the tactlessness of the video in question, the video itself doesn't do anything. It won't maintain attention, it won't benefit her movement, it doesn't effectively make a pathos based argument. That video will not "pull at the heartstrings" and likely took her no more than ten minutes to make.
Her complete laziness is fucking shocking.
"I have a vagina" girl, what? This is what people talk about when they point out "[cis] women wouldn't make a topic like this". Bro, this isn't going to challenge anyone's "problematic ideologies". You are only ever going to have two arguments to your opps. Intersex conditions (still remaining uneducated and without advocacy for those who experience it) and just the definition of vagina.
You will not convince anyone because you're incapable of making a point. This is literally just a shock value background.
Adora ALSO pointed out both in her own discord and her live that she wants to focus on her own experiences. Which isn't going to benefit the groups she continues to leave behind or expressly harms herself.
On a side note, the met gala being compared to the Capitol in hunger games is SO APT, and i don't think adora realizes she not only lives in the Capitol, she's Caesar Flickerman.
2024.05.13 14:38 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 13/05 including positioning analysis going into the week so you know how market makers are positioned for your daytrades
ANALYSIS
submitted by TearRepresentative56 to Daytrading [link] [comments]
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
2024.05.13 14:35 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing from premarket 13/05
ANALYSIS
Will be posting more positioning analysis charts for various instruments on my subreddit Tradingedge during the day. Please check back, as it will give you more indication on how markets are positioned.
submitted by TearRepresentative56 to swingtrading [link] [comments]
Will be posting more positioning analysis charts for various instruments on my subreddit Tradingedge during the day. Please check back, as it will give you more indication on how markets are positioned.
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
2024.05.13 14:34 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 13/05 going into a big week for inflation data.
- ANALYSIS
- With QQQ above 440 and SPX above 5200, vol structure is supportive.
- These are now key levels of support
- We probably see some choppiness, likely with upward pressure as positioning supportive. The choppiness will come from amrket makers tryingt o hedge their volatility surpression.
- Vix is at 13.37, likely to remain between 13 and 14.
- We see basically bullihs positioning on indices.
- However, skew on SPX and QQQ, whilst elevated (indicating bulishness) is pointing lower as traders start to hedge. Meanwhile, skew on VIX is supressed, pointing to lack of fear in market, but points higher. This is due to traders hedging for CPI and PPI.
- As such, traders hedge a bit,due to the data, but positioning overall bullish.
- Top options being bought are 5400 and QQQ 450. both are v much OTM but it shows traders positioning is bullish. Just with hedging for possible short term vol.
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
2024.05.13 14:33 TearRepresentative56 Everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 13/05 including positioning analysis going into a big data week.
ANALYSIS
Positioning for Today:
submitted by TearRepresentative56 to TradingEdge [link] [comments]
Positioning for Today:
- With QQQ above 440 and SPX above 5200, vol structure is supportive.
- These are now key levels of support
- We probably see some choppiness, likely with upward pressure as positioning supportive. The choppiness will come from amrket makers tryingt o hedge their volatility surpression.
- Vix is at 13.37, likely to remain between 13 and 14.
- We see basically bullihs positioning on indices.
- However, skew on SPX and QQQ, whilst elevated (indicating bulishness) is pointing lower as traders start to hedge. Meanwhile, skew on VIX is supressed, pointing to lack of fear in market, but points higher. This is due to traders hedging for CPI and PPI.
- As such, traders hedge a bit,due to the data, but positioning overall bullish.
- Top options being bought are 5400 and QQQ 450. both are v much OTM but it shows traders positioning is bullish. Just with hedging for possible short term vol.
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
2024.05.13 12:48 maticbeast Miguel Oliveira explains DNF at the French GP: "I didn't know what it was, but the sound..."
 | Portuguese rider Miguel Oliveira (Aprilia) withdrew this Sunday from the MotoGP French Grand Prix, the fifth race of the World Speedway, due to mechanical problems. submitted by maticbeast to motogp [link] [comments] The Portuguese rider, who started from 12th place, was having "a good race" with "a good pace" but began to experience "a technical problem related to the exhaust" on his Aprilia. "I continued with this problem for another 10 laps, but at a certain point it was interfering with performance in the way the electronics managed the engine brake and power delivery," explained the Almada-born rider, quoted by the Trackhouse team's press office. For this reason, he had to give up, "in order to avoid future damage" to the engine. "At the time I didn't know what it was, but from the sound I could tell it was something to do with the exhaust. The team is still investigating and together we will see what needs to be done to prevent it happening again in the future," he conceded |
2024.05.13 09:44 geopolicraticus Shedding Disconfirmed Theories and False Prophets
The View from Oregon – 288
Re: Shedding Disconfirmed Theories and False Prophets
Friday 10 May 2024
Dear Friends,
In last week’s newsletter I repeated a claim that I have made previously, specifically, that there is no science of science. As I have been thinking about this claim over the past few years, the consequences of individual sciences (which I often call “the special sciences” in order to distinguish them from science simpliciter) being reasonably well-founded while the enterprise of science itself is, on the whole, not well-founded, have slowly unfolded for me, and every so often I see a new angle to it. I also discussed this in my Wilhelm Windelband and the Place of History among the Sciences, and here the new angle was my realization that idiosyncratic efficacy in science—some people are good at science and others are not—means that individuals and their personalities loom large. This partly explains the heroic narrative of the history of science, treated as an intellectual parallel to Carlyle’s “great man” theory of history.
I have also argued that, contrary to appearances, ours is not a scientific civilization. Many people who have not thought deeply on civilization have asserted that contemporary civilization is scientific. I would say that science plays a crucial role in the development of technologies, but when you step back from all the claims made about science today, it is easy to see that it is not science calling the shots. During the Enlightenment, there was an integration of Enlightenment political thought and science, and it seemed that Enlightenment ideologies translated into state structures (the American Revolution and then the French Revolution) would place science at the center of political deliberations. However, as Enlightenment ideology has developed over the past quarter millennium, it has increasingly diverged from science. With Enlightenment institutions effectively in charge of scientific institutions (higher education, scientific publishing, state funding of science, etc.), Enlightenment ideology has been gradually shaping science to suit its purposes.
If ours were a scientific civilization, it would be science calling the shots, and Enlightenment institutions would be bent to the will of science, and not vice versa. But we can easily see the problem here. Since science cannot make itself fully and completely scientific, science answers to the dominant personalities within scientific institutions, and these personalities can be as benighted and corrupt as any other human beings on the planet. One of things that I have learning by attending conferences over more than a dozen years is that individuals focused on their field can be rational, creative, and interesting in their work, but as soon as they leave their specialization, they are babes in the woods. James Burnham in his The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom, made a passing remark about Einstein’s views on economics, and this is very much to the point: an individual can be so gifted that they see something that everyone else has missed, but outside their field they endorse ideas that are insipid.
So if Enlightenment era institutions were bent to the will of science, that would mean little more than that these institutions would be bent to the will of prominent scientists, and prominent sciences are men of their time: they would (and they do) simply repeat the platitudes of the society of which they are a part. This is how Enlightenment ideology triumphs over rationality, no matter how fulsome representatives of the Enlightenment are in the praise of science and rationality. It’s all hollow. It is a political program that is in the driver’s seat. And, invoking this metaphor, we can compare our Enlightenment civilization to Mark Manson’s consciousness car metaphor: reason has the map, but it’s sitting in the passenger seat, while emotion is at the wheel. So it is with our civilization: science has the map, but it is in the passenger seat, while Enlightenment ideology is in the driver’s seat, and it is free to ignore the advice of science (with the map) at any time.
Science in Enlightenment societies is not, however, a perfectly rational actor, in possession of a map that the rest of society lacks. Since institutional science, also known as “big” science, involves large institutions like universities and the government funding that universities receive for their research, these institutions have now shaped generations of scientists after their own image. So, to recur to the consciousness car metaphor, we have to imagine that science is not only sitting in the passenger seat, but that the only thing that science can see is the map it holds, and it must rely on reports from the driver about what the driver sees out the window: landmarks, signs, other traffic, people in the road, and so on, are all communicated to science by the driver, i.e., by Enlightenment ideology, and then science must attempt to figure out where the car is at, and how to get to the next destination. Needless to say, it is the driver making the choice as to what the next destination is to be. Hume, among the greatest of Enlightenment thinkers, said that “Reason is and ought only to be the slave of the passions.” I don’t think that Hume intended this as a prediction, but that is exactly where we find ourselves today.
One could plausibly argue that no institution at the center of a civilization has ever been a pure exemplar of itself and nothing else, a self-contained and autonomous monad, which is what I seem to be implying with the possibility of science practiced according to a science of science, and not according to the non-scientific whims of its practitioners. The institutional religions that served as the focal institutions of pre-modern agricultural civilizations had long histories and were embedded in a social and agricultural context that gave them meaning. We could point to any number of developments in these traditions where it was climate, geography, or available cultivars that were really driving the development of institutional religion, and not the other way round.
Not directly relevant here, but also not entirely irrelevant, I recently realized a structural similarity between Chinese and Western civilization, and this is that the axialization of these traditions did not emerge from a traditional mythology. The Greeks that their traditional mythology, but it was the expansion of philosophy, and especially the turn to moral and political philosophy after the Peloponnesian War, that served the function that appeared in other societies of the Axial Age through the medium of moralizing religions. China, too, has a traditional mythology, which is as marginal and as entertaining as Greek mythology today, but the axialization of Chinese civilization appeared through Confucianism. Of course, it has been traditional to count Confucianism as a religion, sometimes with certain qualifications, but Confucianism is no more of a religion than the tradition of philosophical ethics in Western civilization. I think it would more plausible to argue that Greek philosophical ethics made possible the appearance of the religious ethic of Christianity as it eventually claimed its central status within Western civilization than to argue that Confucianism is a religion.
The two other contenders here for status as an institutional religion determinative of a civilization are Hinduism, and Buddhism, which latter grew out of Hinduism. Zoroastrianism may have been a contender in its day, as Egyptian civilization was once a contender (not as a religion, but as a civilization), but both ceased to be influential before the advent of modernity. We could also count Judaism, but Judaism has never been a proselytizing religion, so it didn’t have the same influence on history of religious traditions that were actively expansionist. Christianity and Islam both appear well after the Axial Age, and, I would argue, as consequence of the Axial Age, continuing to play itself out in history over a civilizational scale of time.
In any case, institutional religions as the central institutions of agricultural civilizations were in no sense pure in their provenance. Why should science need to be pure in its provenance—which, in this context, means being in possession of a science of science that completes the extant special sciences and provides a map for the indefinite elaboration of science? Arguably, science derives its legitimacy from its rationality, and this requirement of rationality can be turned against itself. Analogously, institutionalized religions derive their legitimacy from a metaphysical claim about the supernatural world, however, in the case of institutionalized religion, this claim doesn’t have traction when invoked reflexively.
The supernatural is the gift that keeps on giving: anything unprecedented can be credited to a new manifestation of the supernatural within the mundane world. It is subject to change without notice, so it can literally accommodate anything that happens, or anything that fails to happen. This is not the case with science. Rationality, too, is a gift that keeps giving, but in a rather different sense than the appeal to the supernatural. Disconfirmed theories can be shed as easily as false prophets, but the evidence upon which the disconfirmed theory is built is stubborn fact that cannot be wished away. Not only can stubborn fact not be wished away, but the new scientific theory that takes the place of the disconfirmed theory must not only explain everything that the disconfirmed theory explained, but it must also explain the result of the crucial experiment that became the pretext for the disconfirmation of the old theory. With false prophets it is rather different: any miracles attributed to them can be consistently denied with no knock-on consequences for the institutionalized tradition that managed to rid itself of the unwelcome prophet.
On stubborn fact—which I will assume is one and the same as brute fact—and returning to Windelband, Windelband provided a gloss (also quoted in my Wilhelm Windelband and the Place of History among the Sciences) on this nomothetic/idiographic distinction that is relevant here:
Empirical science, as Windelband has shown, faces a similar dilemma, but the underlying reasoning has not been as relentlessly worked out. We have to accept brute fact in the same way that the formal sciences have to accept axioms, but in addition to the brute fact we also require the theoretical framework within which the brute fact can be rationalized, and this theoretical framework includes the mathematics that has, as we have seen, its own theoretical compromises. Thus empirical science has a double compromise, with the source of brute fact and with the source of the principles to which it must appeal if it is to rationalize brute fact. With this degree of theoretical complexity, it is no wonder that there is no science of science.
Best wishes,
Nick
PS—In a PS to last week’s newsletter I wrote that I had prioritized rapidity of production over quality of outcome for my video series Today in Philosophy of History. After covering an entire calendar year of philosophy of history birthdays, perhaps next year I will slow my pace of production and focus on producing fewer videos of higher quality. After hitting the highlights, I can then afford to explore lesser known nooks and crannies. I am keeping a list of the philosophers that I have missed or passed over so far in 2024, hopefully to produce episodes on their thought in 2025 (fate willing). For example, I was so focused on the birthdays of Hume and Gibbon on successive days, the 7th and 8th, that I missed Ortega y Gasset’s birthday on the 9th. Hopefully I will be alive next year to record an episode on Ortega y Gasset, whose philosophy of history comprehends several interesting features that deserve more attention. Even prioritizing rapidity of production there is a limit to what I can do, or what I am willing to do. I could have recorded a quick episode on Ortega y Gasset, but I would not have been satisfied with the result. While I can criticize my other episodes, I am at least marginally satisfied with what I had to say.
PPS—I have been staying at my country house in Clatsop County, and today was the nicest day of the year so far. Winters in Clatsop County are wet and cold, and it is mostly miserable to be out in the weather—for comparison, it is the kind of weather you might expect in Scotland, Ireland, or the west coast of Norway. Last week I was still building fires every evening to stay warm, but today was sunny and beautiful. On such a beautiful day it is tempting to stay in the country just to enjoy the peace and quiet, but today I drove to the beach—Peter Iredale beach at Fort Stevens state park. I was at this same beach a few months ago, and it was so cold that it actually hailed at the beach while I was there. Today I was in shirtsleeves and it was warm.
PPPS—The new IBHA newsletter EMERGENCE is available with a Frontiers column by me. This column is about my recent paper, “A Complexity Ladder for Big History.” Some of the ideas in this column will be incorporated into the expanded version of the paper that I mentioned in a PS to newsletter 286.
submitted by geopolicraticus to The_View_from_Oregon [link] [comments]
Re: Shedding Disconfirmed Theories and False Prophets
Friday 10 May 2024
Dear Friends,
In last week’s newsletter I repeated a claim that I have made previously, specifically, that there is no science of science. As I have been thinking about this claim over the past few years, the consequences of individual sciences (which I often call “the special sciences” in order to distinguish them from science simpliciter) being reasonably well-founded while the enterprise of science itself is, on the whole, not well-founded, have slowly unfolded for me, and every so often I see a new angle to it. I also discussed this in my Wilhelm Windelband and the Place of History among the Sciences, and here the new angle was my realization that idiosyncratic efficacy in science—some people are good at science and others are not—means that individuals and their personalities loom large. This partly explains the heroic narrative of the history of science, treated as an intellectual parallel to Carlyle’s “great man” theory of history.
I have also argued that, contrary to appearances, ours is not a scientific civilization. Many people who have not thought deeply on civilization have asserted that contemporary civilization is scientific. I would say that science plays a crucial role in the development of technologies, but when you step back from all the claims made about science today, it is easy to see that it is not science calling the shots. During the Enlightenment, there was an integration of Enlightenment political thought and science, and it seemed that Enlightenment ideologies translated into state structures (the American Revolution and then the French Revolution) would place science at the center of political deliberations. However, as Enlightenment ideology has developed over the past quarter millennium, it has increasingly diverged from science. With Enlightenment institutions effectively in charge of scientific institutions (higher education, scientific publishing, state funding of science, etc.), Enlightenment ideology has been gradually shaping science to suit its purposes.
If ours were a scientific civilization, it would be science calling the shots, and Enlightenment institutions would be bent to the will of science, and not vice versa. But we can easily see the problem here. Since science cannot make itself fully and completely scientific, science answers to the dominant personalities within scientific institutions, and these personalities can be as benighted and corrupt as any other human beings on the planet. One of things that I have learning by attending conferences over more than a dozen years is that individuals focused on their field can be rational, creative, and interesting in their work, but as soon as they leave their specialization, they are babes in the woods. James Burnham in his The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom, made a passing remark about Einstein’s views on economics, and this is very much to the point: an individual can be so gifted that they see something that everyone else has missed, but outside their field they endorse ideas that are insipid.
So if Enlightenment era institutions were bent to the will of science, that would mean little more than that these institutions would be bent to the will of prominent scientists, and prominent sciences are men of their time: they would (and they do) simply repeat the platitudes of the society of which they are a part. This is how Enlightenment ideology triumphs over rationality, no matter how fulsome representatives of the Enlightenment are in the praise of science and rationality. It’s all hollow. It is a political program that is in the driver’s seat. And, invoking this metaphor, we can compare our Enlightenment civilization to Mark Manson’s consciousness car metaphor: reason has the map, but it’s sitting in the passenger seat, while emotion is at the wheel. So it is with our civilization: science has the map, but it is in the passenger seat, while Enlightenment ideology is in the driver’s seat, and it is free to ignore the advice of science (with the map) at any time.
Science in Enlightenment societies is not, however, a perfectly rational actor, in possession of a map that the rest of society lacks. Since institutional science, also known as “big” science, involves large institutions like universities and the government funding that universities receive for their research, these institutions have now shaped generations of scientists after their own image. So, to recur to the consciousness car metaphor, we have to imagine that science is not only sitting in the passenger seat, but that the only thing that science can see is the map it holds, and it must rely on reports from the driver about what the driver sees out the window: landmarks, signs, other traffic, people in the road, and so on, are all communicated to science by the driver, i.e., by Enlightenment ideology, and then science must attempt to figure out where the car is at, and how to get to the next destination. Needless to say, it is the driver making the choice as to what the next destination is to be. Hume, among the greatest of Enlightenment thinkers, said that “Reason is and ought only to be the slave of the passions.” I don’t think that Hume intended this as a prediction, but that is exactly where we find ourselves today.
One could plausibly argue that no institution at the center of a civilization has ever been a pure exemplar of itself and nothing else, a self-contained and autonomous monad, which is what I seem to be implying with the possibility of science practiced according to a science of science, and not according to the non-scientific whims of its practitioners. The institutional religions that served as the focal institutions of pre-modern agricultural civilizations had long histories and were embedded in a social and agricultural context that gave them meaning. We could point to any number of developments in these traditions where it was climate, geography, or available cultivars that were really driving the development of institutional religion, and not the other way round.
Not directly relevant here, but also not entirely irrelevant, I recently realized a structural similarity between Chinese and Western civilization, and this is that the axialization of these traditions did not emerge from a traditional mythology. The Greeks that their traditional mythology, but it was the expansion of philosophy, and especially the turn to moral and political philosophy after the Peloponnesian War, that served the function that appeared in other societies of the Axial Age through the medium of moralizing religions. China, too, has a traditional mythology, which is as marginal and as entertaining as Greek mythology today, but the axialization of Chinese civilization appeared through Confucianism. Of course, it has been traditional to count Confucianism as a religion, sometimes with certain qualifications, but Confucianism is no more of a religion than the tradition of philosophical ethics in Western civilization. I think it would more plausible to argue that Greek philosophical ethics made possible the appearance of the religious ethic of Christianity as it eventually claimed its central status within Western civilization than to argue that Confucianism is a religion.
The two other contenders here for status as an institutional religion determinative of a civilization are Hinduism, and Buddhism, which latter grew out of Hinduism. Zoroastrianism may have been a contender in its day, as Egyptian civilization was once a contender (not as a religion, but as a civilization), but both ceased to be influential before the advent of modernity. We could also count Judaism, but Judaism has never been a proselytizing religion, so it didn’t have the same influence on history of religious traditions that were actively expansionist. Christianity and Islam both appear well after the Axial Age, and, I would argue, as consequence of the Axial Age, continuing to play itself out in history over a civilizational scale of time.
In any case, institutional religions as the central institutions of agricultural civilizations were in no sense pure in their provenance. Why should science need to be pure in its provenance—which, in this context, means being in possession of a science of science that completes the extant special sciences and provides a map for the indefinite elaboration of science? Arguably, science derives its legitimacy from its rationality, and this requirement of rationality can be turned against itself. Analogously, institutionalized religions derive their legitimacy from a metaphysical claim about the supernatural world, however, in the case of institutionalized religion, this claim doesn’t have traction when invoked reflexively.
The supernatural is the gift that keeps on giving: anything unprecedented can be credited to a new manifestation of the supernatural within the mundane world. It is subject to change without notice, so it can literally accommodate anything that happens, or anything that fails to happen. This is not the case with science. Rationality, too, is a gift that keeps giving, but in a rather different sense than the appeal to the supernatural. Disconfirmed theories can be shed as easily as false prophets, but the evidence upon which the disconfirmed theory is built is stubborn fact that cannot be wished away. Not only can stubborn fact not be wished away, but the new scientific theory that takes the place of the disconfirmed theory must not only explain everything that the disconfirmed theory explained, but it must also explain the result of the crucial experiment that became the pretext for the disconfirmation of the old theory. With false prophets it is rather different: any miracles attributed to them can be consistently denied with no knock-on consequences for the institutionalized tradition that managed to rid itself of the unwelcome prophet.
On stubborn fact—which I will assume is one and the same as brute fact—and returning to Windelband, Windelband provided a gloss (also quoted in my Wilhelm Windelband and the Place of History among the Sciences) on this nomothetic/idiographic distinction that is relevant here:
“A description of the present state of the universe follows from the general laws of nature only if the immediately preceding state of the universe is presupposed. But this state presupposes the state that immediately precedes it, and so on. Such a description of a particular, determinate state of the arrangement of atoms, however, can never be derived from the general laws of motion alone. The definitive characteristics of a single point in time can never be immediately derived from any ‘cosmic formula.’ The derivation of the description of a single temporal point always requires the additional description of the previously existing state which is subordinated to the law. General laws do not establish an ultimate state from which the specific conditions of the causal chain could ultimately be derived. It follows that all subsumption under general laws is useless in the analysis of the ultimate causes or grounds of the single, temporally given phenomenon. Therefore, in all the data of historical and individual experience a residuum of incomprehensible, brute fact remains, an inexpressible and indefinable phenomenon.”The juxtaposition within empirical science that Windelband here describes between general laws and brute fact is the empirical parallel to the problem that the formal sciences face in regard to their foundations. A formal system must begin with axioms (or, today, formation rules and transformation rules, but it’s the same thing), and if we don’t accept the axioms, at least hypothetically, then we can’t go any further. Well, sort of. The knowledge of intuitive mathematics that is formalized in an axiom system could be pursued even if it is never formalized, or never fully formalized. Accepting partial formalizations is like accepting the results of the special sciences without a science of science that can be used as a point of reference that all is well in the special science. This is, indeed, the state of formal knowledge, as full formalization is rare, but it exists as an ideal, and the reasoning that lies behind this ideal has been developed relentlessly over more than two thousand years. The current compromise is to accept axioms in the spirit of hypothetico-deductivism: we don’t claim that they are true, certain, necessary, or anything of the properties traditionally ascribed to axioms; we only claim that we can’t go further in our deductions without accepting an axiom hypothetically.
Empirical science, as Windelband has shown, faces a similar dilemma, but the underlying reasoning has not been as relentlessly worked out. We have to accept brute fact in the same way that the formal sciences have to accept axioms, but in addition to the brute fact we also require the theoretical framework within which the brute fact can be rationalized, and this theoretical framework includes the mathematics that has, as we have seen, its own theoretical compromises. Thus empirical science has a double compromise, with the source of brute fact and with the source of the principles to which it must appeal if it is to rationalize brute fact. With this degree of theoretical complexity, it is no wonder that there is no science of science.
Best wishes,
Nick
PS—In a PS to last week’s newsletter I wrote that I had prioritized rapidity of production over quality of outcome for my video series Today in Philosophy of History. After covering an entire calendar year of philosophy of history birthdays, perhaps next year I will slow my pace of production and focus on producing fewer videos of higher quality. After hitting the highlights, I can then afford to explore lesser known nooks and crannies. I am keeping a list of the philosophers that I have missed or passed over so far in 2024, hopefully to produce episodes on their thought in 2025 (fate willing). For example, I was so focused on the birthdays of Hume and Gibbon on successive days, the 7th and 8th, that I missed Ortega y Gasset’s birthday on the 9th. Hopefully I will be alive next year to record an episode on Ortega y Gasset, whose philosophy of history comprehends several interesting features that deserve more attention. Even prioritizing rapidity of production there is a limit to what I can do, or what I am willing to do. I could have recorded a quick episode on Ortega y Gasset, but I would not have been satisfied with the result. While I can criticize my other episodes, I am at least marginally satisfied with what I had to say.
PPS—I have been staying at my country house in Clatsop County, and today was the nicest day of the year so far. Winters in Clatsop County are wet and cold, and it is mostly miserable to be out in the weather—for comparison, it is the kind of weather you might expect in Scotland, Ireland, or the west coast of Norway. Last week I was still building fires every evening to stay warm, but today was sunny and beautiful. On such a beautiful day it is tempting to stay in the country just to enjoy the peace and quiet, but today I drove to the beach—Peter Iredale beach at Fort Stevens state park. I was at this same beach a few months ago, and it was so cold that it actually hailed at the beach while I was there. Today I was in shirtsleeves and it was warm.
PPPS—The new IBHA newsletter EMERGENCE is available with a Frontiers column by me. This column is about my recent paper, “A Complexity Ladder for Big History.” Some of the ideas in this column will be incorporated into the expanded version of the paper that I mentioned in a PS to newsletter 286.
Newsletter link:
https://mailchi.mp/fd4b450c72c4/the-view-from-oregon-288
2024.05.13 01:08 firsthomeFL florida-specific advice for window + door replacement?
posting this in florida instead of a renovation sub because i think there are complicating factors for a hurricane state with high COL and construction costs like we have. i hope that's ok?
my basic little house is ~25 years old, with single pane vinyl windows. for energy cost and noise reasons, i would love to change them out. it would be nice if they would add to resale value, but i dont know if that's really a thing i can expect any return on?
the list:
any recommendations - be it approach, vendors, or things to keep in mind? it sounds like big box stores have their own issues, but also, specialty companies are a price tier i cant entertain.
my county (manatee) requires permits for any changes to windows and doors, but as the homeowner, i can also pull them myself if i am doing the work. i don't mind doing them slowly and one or two at a time, if that's a reasonable approach for someone without a GC in the family - but i will hire someone to help with what i should.
would appreciate any advice folks have... even if its what not to do - i know those lessons are expensive, too.
submitted by firsthomeFL to florida [link] [comments]
my basic little house is ~25 years old, with single pane vinyl windows. for energy cost and noise reasons, i would love to change them out. it would be nice if they would add to resale value, but i dont know if that's really a thing i can expect any return on?
the list:
- i have seven large windows, all single pane vinyl
- i have two smaller / side windows for a bay-window style outcrop in the kitchen, both single pane vinyl
- i have two sets of french doors that i can see daylight around even with added weatherstripping
- i have a front door that is a little worn and i don't love - but is tolerable
any recommendations - be it approach, vendors, or things to keep in mind? it sounds like big box stores have their own issues, but also, specialty companies are a price tier i cant entertain.
my county (manatee) requires permits for any changes to windows and doors, but as the homeowner, i can also pull them myself if i am doing the work. i don't mind doing them slowly and one or two at a time, if that's a reasonable approach for someone without a GC in the family - but i will hire someone to help with what i should.
would appreciate any advice folks have... even if its what not to do - i know those lessons are expensive, too.
2024.05.12 22:04 popcodswallop [WTS] VINTAGE • 1930s-40s Italian and French Wet Noodles (Superflex-Wet Noodle): (2) Montegrappa Extras Aurora Selene Astura Nova Novo Retrofit (3) Edacotos Mercury w/ Sticker •
This week’s vintage batch of Italian and French pens from my own collection might be the largest bunch of Wet Noodles I’ve ever offered! Nibs range from Superflex to Wet Noodle with more than half of the pens being the latter. As you can see, my collecting focus was pens with white metal trim, which all 9 pens have. Some uncommon models here, especially if you’re in the US. As always, all are fully restored and ready to write.
ALBUM & TIMESTAMP
Pastable link: https://imgur.com/a/qzjdJeU
Condition (n.b.): All pens listed below have been disassembled, cleaned and restored with new sacs/seals installed in the last couple months. Each of these pens is guaranteed to fill and write as designed without leaks or other problems. Nibs have been adjusted when necessary to ensure that all lay down a smooth and consistent line.
THESE PENS HAVE NO CRACKS, CHIPS, PERSONALIZATIONS, LOOSE OR MISSING PARTS, BENT NIBS, MISALIGNED TINES, BROKEN/WORN OFF TIPPING, OR THREADING ISSUES.
Line Widths and Writing Samples: To provide buyers with as much information as possible, I have started to adopt the following line width standards: XXF (.1-.2mm); XF (approx .3mm); F (approx .4mm); M (approx .6mm); B (approx .8mm). Nib flexibility is determined by variation (max line width under pressure) and softness (amount of pressure). Flexibility designations based on variation generally run as follows for an XF/F nib: Semi-Flex (approx. 1mm); Flex (1.2-1.9mm); Superflex (>2mm). All line width measurements are taken with a digital caliper but should be considered approximations providing a general guide. Width may vary slightly depending on type of ink and paper used as well as amount of pressure applied. All writing samples are on Rhodia dot paper using Waterman Serenity Blue.
1. 1930s-40s Montegrappa Extra (green marble w/ lizard skin window, celluloid, NPT, piston filler, SS F/M Flex/Superflex nib). This full-sized model measures 5 1/16” capped. Founded c.1912 in Bassano del Grappa, Italy by Edwige Hoffman and Heinrich Helm, Montegrappa (née Elmo) was one of the Big Four Italian makers whose products have had a profound impact on FP design to this day. The Extra was the premier model of the late-1930s and 1940s. This pen has the white metal trim and factory stainless steel nib that distinguish wartime pens in Italy during the restriction on precious metals to aid the war effort. Not a common pen to see Stateside. It’s a piston filler made of green marble celluloid with an eye-catching, transparent, lizard-skin-patterned window in the barrel for viewing ink-level. To fill simply rotate the filler-knob on the end of the barrel counter-clockwise to extend the piston, submerse the nib, then rotate the filler-knob clockwise to draw ink. To quote an Italian collector over at FPN: “Rule No. 1 about vintage Italian pens: Don't let steel nibs scare you off. Unless you're writing with hydrochloric acid, they're every bit as good as the gold nibs from the years before the gold ban.” The stainless steel Montegrappa Extra #4 nib in this pen is no exception, yielding Super-Flexible variation with Flexible softness. It lays down a smooth and consistent F/M line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.0mm) under moderate pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). A nib with particularly juicy flow that’s reliable over its full range of flex, making it a great choice for boldly shaded writing and calligraphic writing styles. Condition: excellent [B]. Nickel-plated trim is clean with no notable flaws aside from a bit of plating wear to the cap bands on one side of the cap (see timestamp photo). Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes aside from some fine scratches on the plastic between and below the cap bands. Barrel transparency is superb (DETAIL PHOTO). Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is deep and fully legible. Feed is missing a couple fins from one side, which has no discernible effect on writing performance (see DETAIL PHOTO LEFT). This pen's filling mechanism was restored in the last couple years but does have a little quirk in filling I haven’t been able to diagnose. It fills near to factory capacity smoothly with no leaks, but one must be careful to avoid extending the piston all the way down to the bottom of the ink-view window. If extended all the way down, the bottom part of the piston loses connection with the top part, requiring the section to be unscrewed to help the piston back up with a pencil eraser while turning the knob. This is a straightforward process but annoying, so I’ve always chosen to fill to just 90% of factory capacity to avoid it. A scarce pen in a striking color pattern. Price:$320 $290
2. 1930s-40s Montegrappa Extra (green swirl w/ lined window, celluloid, NPT, piston filler, SS XF Wet Noodle nib). This full-sized model measures 5 1/16” capped. For more on Montegrappa and the Extra, see description of pen #1 above. This pen has white metal, wartime trim and nib, but it retains the elegant roller-clip distinctive of Italian pens of the 1930s – so likely late-1930s production. It’s another piston filler made of celluloid in an interesting, green swirl pattern with a transparent, lined window in the barrel for viewing ink level. To quote an Italian collector over at FPN: “Rule No. 1 about vintage Italian pens: Don't let steel nibs scare you off. Unless you're writing with hydrochloric acid, they're every bit as good as the gold nibs from the years before the gold ban.” The stainless steel Montegrappa Extra #4 nib in this pen epitomizes this statement, being a Wet Noodle with variation and softness comparable to that of a dip pen nib. It lays down a smooth and consistent XF line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.3mm) under minimal pressure. Thin hairlines, astonishingly responsive snap-back that rivals the 14k dip pen nib in pen #5 below, and reliable flow over its full range of flex makes it an ideal choice for calligraphic writing styles such as Copperplate and Spencerian (see WRITING SAMPLE). Condition: excellent [B]. Nickel-plated trim is clean with no notable flaws aside from a bit of plating wear to the cap bands on the same side of the cap as pen #1 above (see timestamp photo). Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes – scarcely even any micro-scratches. Barrel transparency is excellent apart from a ring of staining (DETAIL PHOTO). Filling system restored with new cork in the last couple years - operation can be a tad stiff if it hasn't been used in a while so I recommend storage filled with water. Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is deep and fully legible. Price: $370 SOLD
3. c.1940 Aurora Selene (brown web, celluloid, NPT, button filler, Platiridio XF Wet Noodle nib). This is an oversized pen by vintage standards, having a thick girth and measuring 5 3/16” capped. Counded in 1919 by Isaia Levi and located in Turin, Italy, Aurora remains one of the most celebrated Italian makers. Introduced in 1940 amid Axis restrictions on precious metals, the Selene was their wartime button-filler and was marketed as “the pen for everyone.” In 1943 the Aurora factory was bombed by the Allies, perhaps contributing to this model’s short span of production. This example is made of celluloid in a fetching brown shell color pattern evocative of the 2nd-gen Eversharp Doric. Nickel plated clip and early-style cap bands with wider center band. One historically interesting detail of this pen is that its barrel bears the subtle heatstamped personalization of Lancia, the famous Italian auto manufacturer (see timestamp photo). To fill the pen, simply unscrew the blind cap, submerse the nib, and depress the metal button once (DETAIL PHOTO). This big pen has a strong fill and holds a lot of ink. As if the 2 pens above weren’t evidence enough of the quality of Italian steel nibs, the Aurora Platiridio #5 in this pen takes the cake. Not only is it a Wet Noodle with softness and flow rivaling that of a dip pen nib, but it’s capable of one of the widest max line widths I’ve ever measured. It lays down a smooth and consistent XF line that widens to an incredible 5B? (approx 2.8mm!) under minimal pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). Even so, it retains a superbly responsive snap-back that gives one precise control over the line under any amount of pressure. That and reliable flow over its full range of flex make it another ideal choice for calligraphic writing styles such as Copperplate and Spencerian. Note that due to the considerable space between the tines of this nib at full flex, Waterman Serenity Blue had trouble keeping the surface tension but my trusty Omas Grey solved the problem entirely, producing flawlessly reliable lines under full flex. So some experimentation with wetter inks might be in order. Condition: excellent+ [B+] assuming you take the “Lancia” marking as an interesting mark of historical provenance as opposed to a flaw. Nickel-plated trim is clean with no brassing or other notable flaws. ). Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes – scarcely even any micro-scratches. Manufacturer imprint on the section is deep and fully legible. Price: $420 SOLD
4. 1930s-40s Astura Nova (grey pearl snakeskin, celluloid, NPT, lever filler, 14k XF Superflex/Wet Noodle nib). This full-sized model measures 5 1/16” capped. Astura pens were made by S.A.F.I.S., a company in Turin (fd. 1926) that would come to be one of the most influential Italian pen makers of the early half of the twentieth century (MORE INFO). They’re best known for producing pens of considerably high quality such as Radius and The King. And this Astura follows suit. It’s made of celluloid in a particularly bold and pearlescent snakeskin pattern, complemented by nickel plated trim. 14k Warranted #3 nib yields Super-flexible variation with softness verging on that of a Wet Noodle. It lays down a smooth and consistent XF line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.2mm) under very light pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). Thin hairlines, superbly responsive snap-back, and reliable flow over its full range of flex make it another excellent choice for calligraphic writing styles such as Copperplate and Spencerian. Condition: fine [C]. Nickel-plated trim shows some brassing to the clip and some of the lower cap band, which has been factored into the price. Nib has a mark on one tine that's merely cosmetic, having no effect on durability or performance. Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes – scarcely even any micro-scratches. Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is deep and fully legible. Another beautiful Italian pen and another lovely writer. Price: $280 SOLD
5. 1930s-40s Novo Retrofit (green moss, celluloid, NPT, button filler, 14k XXF Needlepoint Wet Noodle nib). This full-sized model measures 4 7/8” capped. The only maker’s mark on this pen is a barrel imprint that reads “Novo.” But I haven’t been able to determine whether that’s a make or a model or anything about it, for that matter. It’s clearly Italian, of a quality similar to the Montegrappas and Aurora above, probably originating from one of those conglomerates that collaborated with some of the major Italian makers. In fact, the clip of this pen is identical to that of pen #2. This pen is made of celluloid in an unusual, moss green color pattern with flashes of a brighter green. Nickel-plated trim with elegant roller-clip. This pen is a button filler. To fill the pen, simply unscrew the blind cap, submerse the nib, and depress the metal button once. This pen came to me nibless but with a very narrow section, so I equipped it with a smaller, 14k, iridium-tipped Aikin Lambert dip pen nib - adjusted and tuned to match factory performance. That nib is a Wet Noodle with killer snap-back. It lays down a smooth and consistent XXF line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.1mm) under minimal pressure (probably the softest nib of the batch) (see WRITING SAMPLE). Needlepoint hairlines, effortless variation, surgically precise snap-back, and reliable flow over its full range of flex make it another ideal choice for calligraphic writing styles. Condition: excellent+ [B+]. Nickel-plated trim is clean with no brassing or other notable flaws aside from perhaps a sliver or two of high-point wear on the apex of the faceted clip. Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes – scarcely even any micro-scratches. Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is deep and fully legible. Price: $270 SOLD
6. 1930s-40s Edacoto 02 Retrofit (coral grey pearl, celluloid, NPT, button filler, 14k XXF Needlepoint Wet Noodle nib). This is a larger Edacoto model, having a thicker girth than standard and measuring 5 1/16” capped. Edacoto (née Edac) was French maker based in Paris from 1922 to the mid-1960s. Edacotos are well-made pens known for their unusual color patterns and distinctive waterfall clip design. This one is a case in point, being made in a grey pearl celluloid with a quasi-psychedelic color pattern resembling chatoyant coral that seems to shift when the pen is turned under light. This model’s size, filling system, and trim configuration situates it near the top of Edacoto’s lineup. It is a button filler. To fill the pen, simply unscrew the blind cap, submerse the nib, and depress the metal button once. It’s equipped with one of my dip pen nib retrofits: a large, 14k, iridium tipped E.S. Johnson that’s been adjusted and tuned to match factory performance. That nib is another Wet Noodle, laying down a smooth and consistent XXF line that widens to an impressive 4B+ (approx 2.5mm) under minimal pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). Needlepoint hairlines, strong snap-back, and reliable flow over its full range of flex make it another ideal choice for calligraphic writing styles such as Copperplate and Spencerian. Condition: excellent+ [B+]. Nickel-plated trim is clean with no brassing or notable flaws apart from the top cap band having lost some of its original luster (I assume). Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes – scarcely even any micro-scratches. Feed is missing a a fin from one side, which has no discernible effect on writing performance (see DETAIL PHOTO RIGHT). Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is deep and fully legible. Price: $310 SOLD
7. 1930s-40s Edacoto (grey web, celluloid, NPT, lever filler, SS XF/F Wet Noodle nib). This full-sized model measures 4 7/8” capped. For more on Edacoto, see description of pen #6 above. This pen is made of grey web celluloid complemented by nickel plated trim with deluxe, triple cap bands. SS Edacoto 87 nib is yet another Wet Noodle with flow and softness comparable to that of a dip pen nib. It lays down a smooth and consistent XF/F line that widens to an impressive 4B+ (approx 2.5mm) under minimal pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). Effortless variation, strong snap-back, and reliably wet flow over its full range of flex make it another ideal choice for calligraphic writing styles. Condition: excellent [B]. Nickel-plated trim is clean with no brassing or notable flaws apart from a pin sized spot of wear on the lever and a couple on the cap bands on each side of the cap (see timestamp photo). Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes – scarcely even any micro-scratches. Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is weakened but fully legible. Price: $220 SOLD
8. 1930s Edacoto (grey pearl marble, celluloid, NPT, lever filler, 14k F Flex/Superflex nib). This smaller model measures 4 5/8” capped. For more on Edacoto, see pen #6 above. This one is made of grey pearl marble complemented by nickel-plated trim. 14k Warranted nib yields Super-Flexible variation with Flexible softness. It lays down a smooth and consistent F line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.0mm) under moderate pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). Strong snap-back, and reliable flow over its full range of flex make it a great choice for expressive and calligraphic writing styles. Condition: excellent/fine [B/C]. Nickel-plated trim looks clean with the naked eye but shows a peppering of wear under a loupe. Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes apart from subtle shrinkage of the cap that can’t be seen so much as felt when running a finger down it – merely cosmetic with no affect on how the cap screws on. Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is weakened but fully legible. Price:$150 $140
9. 1940s-50s Mercury w/ Sticker (blue swirl, celluloid, NPT, button filler, 14k XF Superflex nib). This full-sized model measures 5 3/8” capped. This mysterious pen has defied all my research efforts. It’s marked “Mercury” on the barrel in the usual place and “B-tg / SGDG / Made in France” farther up toward the section. It comes with its original price sticker, ehich reads “Mercury” and “225” penned in ink. This pen is made of a curious wrapped celluloid in blue and black complemented by heavy, white metal trim with “Bronze au Glucinium” stamped in the top of the spring-activated clip. Never seen trim made of this! Threads for the blind cap appear to be stainless steel. All this gives the pen a substantial heft in the hand. Super-Flexible 14k Mercury nib lays down a smooth and consistent XF line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.0mm) under light pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). Thin hairlines, strong snap-back, and reliable flow over its full range of flex make it another great choice for calligraphic writing styles. Condition: excellent+ [B+]. This pen is in pristine, museum-grade condition. Nickel-plated trim is immaculate with no brassing or other notable flaws. Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes – scarcely even any micro-scratches. Manufacturer imprint on the barrel are deep and fully legible. Price: $240 SOLD
Shipping: Pens purchased on the weekend are mailed on Tuesday. Otherwise they are mailed within 2 business days of payment. All pens that do not come with their original boxes are packaged in PVC or thick plastic tubes to protect them in transit. To CONUS locations the following shipping options are available:
New York Customers: For tax purposes, I am now required to add an 8% sales tax on any sale made in the state of NY. If your shipping address is in NY state, please let me know before payment to receive an adjusted total. Discounted shipping is included for NY State residents to help defray the extra cost.
Ordering: Pens are placed on hold for the first person to reply to the thread and PM me with firm request to purchase (no chat DMs please). A request with the words “I'd like to purchase [pen number]” would be best to avoid confusion), to which I’ll reply with payment details. Please note that a message inquiring into a price discount does not suffice to place a pen on hold. If I haven't received Paypal payment within 24 hrs after a hold is placed, then pen(s) may become available to the next person.
Payment, & Guarantee: Payment by Paypal only. All pens are guaranteed to be in the condition in which I've described them. If I've missed something objectionable or the filling mechanism is not fully functional, the buyer may contact me up to 7 days after receiving the pen for a full refund (issued once I receive the pen back in the same condition as sold). Buyer must ship the return no later than 2 weeks after it was delivered to receive a refund. I've sold pens online for over a decade. Please check my past listings here as well as on the classifieds and historical sales forums on FPN (username: Estragon) and FPGeeks (popcod) for some of my previous offerings.
OTHER OPEN LISTINGS
submitted by popcodswallop to Pen_Swap [link] [comments]
ALBUM & TIMESTAMP
Pastable link: https://imgur.com/a/qzjdJeU
Condition (n.b.): All pens listed below have been disassembled, cleaned and restored with new sacs/seals installed in the last couple months. Each of these pens is guaranteed to fill and write as designed without leaks or other problems. Nibs have been adjusted when necessary to ensure that all lay down a smooth and consistent line.
THESE PENS HAVE NO CRACKS, CHIPS, PERSONALIZATIONS, LOOSE OR MISSING PARTS, BENT NIBS, MISALIGNED TINES, BROKEN/WORN OFF TIPPING, OR THREADING ISSUES.
Line Widths and Writing Samples: To provide buyers with as much information as possible, I have started to adopt the following line width standards: XXF (.1-.2mm); XF (approx .3mm); F (approx .4mm); M (approx .6mm); B (approx .8mm). Nib flexibility is determined by variation (max line width under pressure) and softness (amount of pressure). Flexibility designations based on variation generally run as follows for an XF/F nib: Semi-Flex (approx. 1mm); Flex (1.2-1.9mm); Superflex (>2mm). All line width measurements are taken with a digital caliper but should be considered approximations providing a general guide. Width may vary slightly depending on type of ink and paper used as well as amount of pressure applied. All writing samples are on Rhodia dot paper using Waterman Serenity Blue.
1. 1930s-40s Montegrappa Extra (green marble w/ lizard skin window, celluloid, NPT, piston filler, SS F/M Flex/Superflex nib). This full-sized model measures 5 1/16” capped. Founded c.1912 in Bassano del Grappa, Italy by Edwige Hoffman and Heinrich Helm, Montegrappa (née Elmo) was one of the Big Four Italian makers whose products have had a profound impact on FP design to this day. The Extra was the premier model of the late-1930s and 1940s. This pen has the white metal trim and factory stainless steel nib that distinguish wartime pens in Italy during the restriction on precious metals to aid the war effort. Not a common pen to see Stateside. It’s a piston filler made of green marble celluloid with an eye-catching, transparent, lizard-skin-patterned window in the barrel for viewing ink-level. To fill simply rotate the filler-knob on the end of the barrel counter-clockwise to extend the piston, submerse the nib, then rotate the filler-knob clockwise to draw ink. To quote an Italian collector over at FPN: “Rule No. 1 about vintage Italian pens: Don't let steel nibs scare you off. Unless you're writing with hydrochloric acid, they're every bit as good as the gold nibs from the years before the gold ban.” The stainless steel Montegrappa Extra #4 nib in this pen is no exception, yielding Super-Flexible variation with Flexible softness. It lays down a smooth and consistent F/M line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.0mm) under moderate pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). A nib with particularly juicy flow that’s reliable over its full range of flex, making it a great choice for boldly shaded writing and calligraphic writing styles. Condition: excellent [B]. Nickel-plated trim is clean with no notable flaws aside from a bit of plating wear to the cap bands on one side of the cap (see timestamp photo). Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes aside from some fine scratches on the plastic between and below the cap bands. Barrel transparency is superb (DETAIL PHOTO). Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is deep and fully legible. Feed is missing a couple fins from one side, which has no discernible effect on writing performance (see DETAIL PHOTO LEFT). This pen's filling mechanism was restored in the last couple years but does have a little quirk in filling I haven’t been able to diagnose. It fills near to factory capacity smoothly with no leaks, but one must be careful to avoid extending the piston all the way down to the bottom of the ink-view window. If extended all the way down, the bottom part of the piston loses connection with the top part, requiring the section to be unscrewed to help the piston back up with a pencil eraser while turning the knob. This is a straightforward process but annoying, so I’ve always chosen to fill to just 90% of factory capacity to avoid it. A scarce pen in a striking color pattern. Price:
8. 1930s Edacoto (grey pearl marble, celluloid, NPT, lever filler, 14k F Flex/Superflex nib). This smaller model measures 4 5/8” capped. For more on Edacoto, see pen #6 above. This one is made of grey pearl marble complemented by nickel-plated trim. 14k Warranted nib yields Super-Flexible variation with Flexible softness. It lays down a smooth and consistent F line that widens to a 4B+ (approx 2.0mm) under moderate pressure (see WRITING SAMPLE). Strong snap-back, and reliable flow over its full range of flex make it a great choice for expressive and calligraphic writing styles. Condition: excellent/fine [B/C]. Nickel-plated trim looks clean with the naked eye but shows a peppering of wear under a loupe. Celluloid is smooth and lustrous with no deep scratches or other noteworthy blemishes apart from subtle shrinkage of the cap that can’t be seen so much as felt when running a finger down it – merely cosmetic with no affect on how the cap screws on. Manufacturer imprint on the barrel is weakened but fully legible. Price:
Shipping: Pens purchased on the weekend are mailed on Tuesday. Otherwise they are mailed within 2 business days of payment. All pens that do not come with their original boxes are packaged in PVC or thick plastic tubes to protect them in transit. To CONUS locations the following shipping options are available:
USPS First-Class with tracking for $5Due to the delivery delays that continue under postmaster general DeJoy, I strongly recommend that the Priority shipping option be chosen. All packages will include full insurance (covered by me). Rest assured that a full refund is guaranteed (issued through Paypal) in the event of a lost parcel and you will not have to wait until I receive a reimbursement from the USPS.- USPS Priority with tracking for $9
New York Customers: For tax purposes, I am now required to add an 8% sales tax on any sale made in the state of NY. If your shipping address is in NY state, please let me know before payment to receive an adjusted total. Discounted shipping is included for NY State residents to help defray the extra cost.
Ordering: Pens are placed on hold for the first person to reply to the thread and PM me with firm request to purchase (no chat DMs please). A request with the words “I'd like to purchase [pen number]” would be best to avoid confusion), to which I’ll reply with payment details. Please note that a message inquiring into a price discount does not suffice to place a pen on hold. If I haven't received Paypal payment within 24 hrs after a hold is placed, then pen(s) may become available to the next person.
Payment, & Guarantee: Payment by Paypal only. All pens are guaranteed to be in the condition in which I've described them. If I've missed something objectionable or the filling mechanism is not fully functional, the buyer may contact me up to 7 days after receiving the pen for a full refund (issued once I receive the pen back in the same condition as sold). Buyer must ship the return no later than 2 weeks after it was delivered to receive a refund. I've sold pens online for over a decade. Please check my past listings here as well as on the classifieds and historical sales forums on FPN (username: Estragon) and FPGeeks (popcod) for some of my previous offerings.
OTHER OPEN LISTINGS
2024.05.12 21:30 outsideinsideellie Help understanding implications of damp/roof on survey
Hello DIYUK,
I have received a survey back on a 1930s semi-detached property we are looking at in Yorkshire.
The survey has found that the property has 'high levels of damp at low levels' of the external walls.
The survey has highlighted some things that may be contributing including:
Things we are planning to do anyway:
We are also considering hiring a damp specialist (PCA approved) and have a quote for roughly £220 for this, and if internal inspection an additional £220. We expect that the current residents wouldn't allow an internal inspection.
What we are hoping to get further advice on:
Thanks to anyone who can offer any further opinion!
submitted by outsideinsideellie to DIYUK [link] [comments]
I have received a survey back on a 1930s semi-detached property we are looking at in Yorkshire.
The survey has found that the property has 'high levels of damp at low levels' of the external walls.
The survey has highlighted some things that may be contributing including:
- Guttering in disrepair requiring replacing
- Some damaged render requiring repairing
- Roof in disrepair and requiring replacing (we are receiving quotes for this)
- Driveway potentially being installed too high
- The property has signs of cavity wall insulation installation although current residents are not aware (have lived there ~15yrs)
Things we are planning to do anyway:
- Replace roof/repair guttering (currently receiving quotes for this and will ask for the price off our accepted offer)
- Repair render
- Input french drain
- ?Air bricks installation
- ?Remove cavity wall insulation
We are also considering hiring a damp specialist (PCA approved) and have a quote for roughly £220 for this, and if internal inspection an additional £220. We expect that the current residents wouldn't allow an internal inspection.
What we are hoping to get further advice on:
- The advice we have received from family and friends are variable in expectations of cost for the above. Can anyone advise on rough expected cost of cavity wall insulations and air brick installations in 3 bed semi?
- Would a damp specialist opinion be useful given the information we already know and that they can only complete an external inspection?
- We are aware that damp can cause structural damage to property. Would the only way we know about this be an internal assessment? Or is the lack of structural issue on survey reassuring that the damp hasn't affected the structural elements of the building?
Thanks to anyone who can offer any further opinion!
2024.05.12 20:23 PracticalCows How I lost 70 lbs. This is what worked for me, and maybe it can help some of you guys too.
Not medical advice, but here we go:
1) Find an exercise routine you enjoy doing and make it your hobby. Working out is supposed to be fun and something you look forward to. I recommend finding something that truly turns you into a puddle of sweat (safely).
2) If you drink caffeine like everyone else, try drinking straight black coffee. I stopped the energy drinks / sodas and now just get my caffeine from iced black coffee with nothing in it. I grew to like the taste.
3) Not all fast food is bad. A double cheese burger actually has a lot of nutrients in it (avoid French fry's obviously).
4) If you're stressed, it's really hard to lose weight from all the cortisol in your system.
5) Clean up your diet and eat less.
6) If you're truly struggling, get bloodwork done / see if weight gain is a side effect from a medication you're on. My friend is on psych meds, and he STRUGGLES keeping his weight down.
It really was that simple for me. There is a quote I thought was extremely profound: "You never own a good body, you can only rent it." If you want to keep your physique, you're constantly going to have to work on keeping it.
submitted by PracticalCows to loseit [link] [comments]
1) Find an exercise routine you enjoy doing and make it your hobby. Working out is supposed to be fun and something you look forward to. I recommend finding something that truly turns you into a puddle of sweat (safely).
2) If you drink caffeine like everyone else, try drinking straight black coffee. I stopped the energy drinks / sodas and now just get my caffeine from iced black coffee with nothing in it. I grew to like the taste.
3) Not all fast food is bad. A double cheese burger actually has a lot of nutrients in it (avoid French fry's obviously).
4) If you're stressed, it's really hard to lose weight from all the cortisol in your system.
5) Clean up your diet and eat less.
6) If you're truly struggling, get bloodwork done / see if weight gain is a side effect from a medication you're on. My friend is on psych meds, and he STRUGGLES keeping his weight down.
It really was that simple for me. There is a quote I thought was extremely profound: "You never own a good body, you can only rent it." If you want to keep your physique, you're constantly going to have to work on keeping it.
2024.05.12 19:50 shaneka69 In These Streets SLOWED AND REVERB
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2024.05.12 17:26 KahlilBT Help deciphering calligraphy?
 | I have a book of calligraphy by Lassaâd Métoui based on the works of Kahlil Gibran. I'm particularly interested in one calligraphy: as I'm new to Arabic I have trouble deciphering it. I think Métoui is Tunisian in origin. submitted by KahlilBT to ArabicCalligraphy [link] [comments] I will add the calligraphy here, and a little diagram I have made to start decoding it. It is apparently a quote from The Prophet (this copy is in French) : En vérité, l' océan rit toujours avec innocence. (English: In truth, the ocean always laughs with innocence.) I have the words البحر identified, and يظحك appears to be a variation of يضحك. Otherwise I'm stumped. Any help? |
2024.05.12 04:46 foureyepatcher Funniest out of context quotes from your teachers?
Just a random quote dump to relieve stress taken from my friend group’s quote document! I'll go first.
‘‘Hey don't call someone a failed abortion on valentines day!" -Math teacher
“I’m going to do an Irish jig now to celebrate”- Math teacher
“I want not one of you poking each other or touching each other or stroking each other”- Math teacher
“YOU’RE BOTTOMING HIM?!” - French teacher checking someone's notifications
"If the alpha was 6 inches deep in me, I wouldn’t die but i would get earlobe cancer." -Physics teacher talking about radioactivity
“Why is the paper so warm?” -Me and my friend
“I farted on it” -Physics teacher
“(Inspector revealing that Eva Smith’s new name was Daisy Renton, Gerald looking shocked) Not my sidechick!” -English teacher
(Fruity scene in Macbeth and the boys are replicating it) “Guys, don’t pull a (name of a male art teacher).”
“I’m a rotary motor. I'm really happy. When you turn me on i keep spinning." -Computer science teacher
“If i were to mate with this man”- Bio teacher
“These are my twins!... in WW2, Hitler… If you want to experiment on my twins it will be 1000$ an hour”- Bio teacher
submitted by foureyepatcher to GCSE [link] [comments]
‘‘Hey don't call someone a failed abortion on valentines day!" -Math teacher
“I’m going to do an Irish jig now to celebrate”- Math teacher
“I want not one of you poking each other or touching each other or stroking each other”- Math teacher
“YOU’RE BOTTOMING HIM?!” - French teacher checking someone's notifications
"If the alpha was 6 inches deep in me, I wouldn’t die but i would get earlobe cancer." -Physics teacher talking about radioactivity
“Why is the paper so warm?” -Me and my friend
“I farted on it” -Physics teacher
“(Inspector revealing that Eva Smith’s new name was Daisy Renton, Gerald looking shocked) Not my sidechick!” -English teacher
(Fruity scene in Macbeth and the boys are replicating it) “Guys, don’t pull a (name of a male art teacher).”
“I’m a rotary motor. I'm really happy. When you turn me on i keep spinning." -Computer science teacher
“If i were to mate with this man”- Bio teacher
“These are my twins!... in WW2, Hitler… If you want to experiment on my twins it will be 1000$ an hour”- Bio teacher
2024.05.12 02:57 fontanovich Blindsight and Peter Watts' quotes: a mystery
I'm revisiting Blindsight and Watts in general (watching his interviews in YouTube, etc) and even though I knew he invented documentation and quotes for his books (e.g. the vampire biology justification) , I started noticing some more stuff he just made up, like some of the opening quotes at the beginning of some chapters.
But then I watched this interview he did with Moid from Media Death Cult (great channel BTW), and was interested by a case he mentions at approximately 1:27:05 about a French woman that went blind and believed he still saw for about 13 months.
I did some research and found nothing like that, anywhere.
Then as I continued rereading Blindsight, I reached a segment in which he writes: "Months sometimes, according to case files. For one poor woman, a year and more". So he's clearly talking about the same came referenced in the interview.
So is he BSing or maybe mixing what he comes up with, with real life documented cases?
What am I missing here?
submitted by fontanovich to printSF [link] [comments]
But then I watched this interview he did with Moid from Media Death Cult (great channel BTW), and was interested by a case he mentions at approximately 1:27:05 about a French woman that went blind and believed he still saw for about 13 months.
I did some research and found nothing like that, anywhere.
Then as I continued rereading Blindsight, I reached a segment in which he writes: "Months sometimes, according to case files. For one poor woman, a year and more". So he's clearly talking about the same came referenced in the interview.
So is he BSing or maybe mixing what he comes up with, with real life documented cases?
What am I missing here?