Proxies 2011
Thoughts on my masters thesis on prediction market forecast accuracy
2024.05.17 10:12 OleJastrau Thoughts on my masters thesis on prediction market forecast accuracy
I've spent the last few months writing my master thesis in economics focusing on prediction market forecasting accuracy. I was hoping to get some final thoughts or comments, since this is probably the place where the average knowledge of PM's is the highest.
My selling point is that there is a gap in the literature, a hole which is perfectly filled by the launch of Kalshi. Historically, most research on PM's focus on election forecasting, I'm interested in looking at how well they forecast economic variables, since I see it as a possibly cheaper, easier and more efficient way of forecasting than compared to traditional time series methods.
The previous research looking at how well PM's forecast economic variables are plagued by two issues. First off, there is some research looking at data from Economic Indicator Market (EIX) (Teschner et al. (2011) for example) which is specifically designed to forecast economic variables, however, it is a play money market, and as Rosenbloom and Notz (2006) show, play money markets are beaten by real money markets.
Secondly, the research I've seen looking at real money markets for economic variables primarily looks at future contracts markets (Snowberg et al. (2013) for example), which is problematic as a proxy for prediction markets, since the contracts are tied to actual physical delivery of the underlying good, and thus their prices lack the property of being interpreted as probabilities for the future, the prices contain other information than pure opinions about the future price of the underlying good. Also, in both of the examples I've included here, the papers compare PM forecasts with some sort of expert survey. So far there is no paper looking at how well PM's fare against time series forecasting methodologies (to my knowledge), and this is of interest IMO.
Thus, the launch of Kalshi is an opportunity to study real money prediction market forecasts of economic variables (which has hitherto not been done), and also compare these forecasts with some benchmark like ARIMA forecasts, as well as some more advanced methods, in my case machine learning methods, specifically LSTM algorithms. I look at two weekly markets, the one for US treasury 10Y yield and for WTI crude oil prices.
So, what do you think? Do you see any potential issues with this line of thinking? What do you think I should bring up as background? Any interesting theories on how PMs work so well?
Also, in my results, I find that for the 10Y yield market, the PM is significantly better at forecasting the yield than both the benchmark and a LSTM algorithm, this is somewhat surprising since the average dollar volume of the market in the period 2023-04 to today, is roughly $50. There is no data on number of market participants, only dollar volume. But using this as a proxy of market size (preferably I would want number of market participants), the results seem surprising. Such a small market but it is still remarkably good at forecasting 10Y yield. The overall MAPE for the PM is 1.76%, compared to 1.95% for the LSTM and 2.89% for the ARIMA.
For the WTI crude oil market the LSTM outperforms the other methods by quite a margin, the LSTM has a MAPE of 2.7%, compared to a value of 3.11% for the PM and 3.35 for the ARIMA.
Appreciate any thoughts, thanks!
submitted by OleJastrau to slatestarcodex [link] [comments]
My selling point is that there is a gap in the literature, a hole which is perfectly filled by the launch of Kalshi. Historically, most research on PM's focus on election forecasting, I'm interested in looking at how well they forecast economic variables, since I see it as a possibly cheaper, easier and more efficient way of forecasting than compared to traditional time series methods.
The previous research looking at how well PM's forecast economic variables are plagued by two issues. First off, there is some research looking at data from Economic Indicator Market (EIX) (Teschner et al. (2011) for example) which is specifically designed to forecast economic variables, however, it is a play money market, and as Rosenbloom and Notz (2006) show, play money markets are beaten by real money markets.
Secondly, the research I've seen looking at real money markets for economic variables primarily looks at future contracts markets (Snowberg et al. (2013) for example), which is problematic as a proxy for prediction markets, since the contracts are tied to actual physical delivery of the underlying good, and thus their prices lack the property of being interpreted as probabilities for the future, the prices contain other information than pure opinions about the future price of the underlying good. Also, in both of the examples I've included here, the papers compare PM forecasts with some sort of expert survey. So far there is no paper looking at how well PM's fare against time series forecasting methodologies (to my knowledge), and this is of interest IMO.
Thus, the launch of Kalshi is an opportunity to study real money prediction market forecasts of economic variables (which has hitherto not been done), and also compare these forecasts with some benchmark like ARIMA forecasts, as well as some more advanced methods, in my case machine learning methods, specifically LSTM algorithms. I look at two weekly markets, the one for US treasury 10Y yield and for WTI crude oil prices.
So, what do you think? Do you see any potential issues with this line of thinking? What do you think I should bring up as background? Any interesting theories on how PMs work so well?
Also, in my results, I find that for the 10Y yield market, the PM is significantly better at forecasting the yield than both the benchmark and a LSTM algorithm, this is somewhat surprising since the average dollar volume of the market in the period 2023-04 to today, is roughly $50. There is no data on number of market participants, only dollar volume. But using this as a proxy of market size (preferably I would want number of market participants), the results seem surprising. Such a small market but it is still remarkably good at forecasting 10Y yield. The overall MAPE for the PM is 1.76%, compared to 1.95% for the LSTM and 2.89% for the ARIMA.
For the WTI crude oil market the LSTM outperforms the other methods by quite a margin, the LSTM has a MAPE of 2.7%, compared to a value of 3.11% for the PM and 3.35 for the ARIMA.
Appreciate any thoughts, thanks!
2024.05.14 12:40 Specialist_Bake6514 Vapiano P3: Italian Food Made in Germany
 | The kitchen is on fire. Welcome to the final part of the Vapiano story where the tables are turning. In the first two episodes we followed Mark Korzilius' journey from setbacks to founding Vapiano, a groundbreaking restaurant concept, highlighting its fresh ingredients, dynamic atmosphere, and data-driven operations that drove rapid success. While achieving initial profitability and garnering attention from industry giants like McDonald's, Vapiano's global expansion has led to stellar revenue growth. However, it has also resulted in the emergence of numerous side projects (or distractions), operational challenges, increased costs, significant investments, and a notable accumulation of debt. This underscores the prioritization of top-line growth over profitable growth. We will continue on this thread and see how the story ends, but I would encourage you to read part one and two for better context. Vapiano P1: Italian Food Made in Germany (substack.com). Let's dig in. submitted by Specialist_Bake6514 to unpackbusinesses [link] [comments] Before Going Public We are now in 2015 and the year is a disaster for Vapiano's PR department. Employee time stamps are being manipulated, endless overtime for employees and high turnover in managerial roles are reported; mice in the kitchen and even rotten food allegedly found. The company is confronted with allegations of exceeding working hours among trainees in an article published by Welt am Sonntag, while the same outlet accuses Vapiano of manipulating punch times. The auditing firm PwC is commissioned to investigate the allegations and finds that there is no systematic approach but rather misconduct by individual employees, a mistake that’s being corrected. Internal however, investigations into stamp times are carried out regularly now and beyond its obvious reputational impact, this sucks up valuable management time and attention. In the summer of 2015 CEO, co-founder and investor Gregor Gerlach, who has been running the group since 2011 is stepping down and Jochen Halfmann is taking over. A new Vapiano People Program with an App is being developed with the aim to better interact with customers that will incorporate innovate features such as mobile pay. The German website sees a launch of new magazine to further promote the brand and there is now a full inhouse blogger and Instagram team being installed. In October the company buys seven restaurants from original co-founder, former co-investor and ex-president previously responsible for internation expansion Kent Hahne (2x Bonn, 3x Cologne, 1x Koblenz and one in Cologne that’s under construction). This package of Vapiano restaurants is very successful and generates net sales of more than 20 million euros in 2014. Hahne opened his first Vapiano restaurant in Cologne in August 2006 and in 2015 with his company apeiron AG, Hahne operates six L'Osteria franchise restaurants, a direct Vapiano competitor, and two self-owned restaurants GinYuu. Then in November of 2015, the next public relations bomb goes off with allegations regarding the company's quality standards. The company immediately investigates the issue through internal and external specialists but finds no evidence of any quality issues. Nevertheless, knowing that the group is now being closely watched, the company’s already in place hygiene standards are being reinforced. Additional audits and inspections are performed nationally. Further, all Vapianos worldwide are being audited twice by the partners SGS Institut Fresenius and SAI Global. Auditing software is purchased to simplify the implementation of the audits and the resulting measures. Apart from the external examinations, there is a food sampling plan in place being performed continuously. Again, all of this sucks up costs, management time and attention. With all these tumultuous developments the company’s growth engine is undeterred. Revenue grows by a whopping 50 million euros to 202 million euros, an increase of 33%. Impressive. While average spent per customer increases in all countries, the number of customers per day in Germany decreases by 3.3% partially due to the negative press towards the end of the year. Five own, four JV and 19 new franchise restaurants are added that year to the group, the total number of own managed restaurants grows to 51, there are 31 JVs and 84 franchises which bringing the total to 166 Vapiano restaurants. Global restaurant sales are now above 400 million euros. But while revenue grows by an astronomical 50 million euros, operating profits, alarmingly, shrink again. Gross margins are staying perfectly healthy above 75% but operating costs keep growing disproportionately fast. The Company’s outstanding debt jumps by almost 30 million, close to 85 million euros by the end of the year. With operating profits at 9.5 million euros, alarm bells should be going off right now. In Q4 of 2015, new CEO Jochen Halfmann introduces Strategy 2020. The new strategy includes five essential points. One, profitable growth in the newly defined core markets of Germany and Austria as well as in the UK, Netherlands, France and USA. Two, operational excellence through strict “best practice” management. Three, further development and digitalization of the concept considering guest feedback. Four, greater focus on long-term employee retention and five, building a modern and sustainable IT landscape. Sound’s good on paper but let’s see how things pan out. Vapiano's investments (capital expenditures) that year are primarily directed towards new restaurant openings, renovations of existing establishments, and share acquisitions in other Vapiano restaurants from franchisees or JV partners. A significant portion of funds is allocated to the digitalization of the guest experience, including the development of a new app scheduled for market release in 2016 and the implementation of a time recording system across all group restaurants. The world's first standalone Vapiano restaurant with a delivery service that year is built in Fürth, Germany. The company keeps expanding its presence in both inner-city locations and international markets, such as Shanghai, China. To finance all of this, the group has its own operating cash flow which comes in at 18 million while capital expenditures are 26 million euros plus 14 million for acquisitions. The funding gab is filled with 26 million euros of new debt and a seven-million-euro equity raise. At that end of the year and after the equity raise Gregor Gerlach (through his AP Leipzig GmbH & Co. KG entity) holds 30.1%, Hans-Joachim and Gisa Sander through their Exchange Bio GmbH hold 25.5% and the Tchibo heirs, Herz through their Mayfair Beteiligungsfonds II GmbH & Co. KG hold 44,4%. But for the first time the restaurant’s concept that was so successful to date is being questioned. Some customers are starting to mislike the operational flow of the concept itself. If you want pasta, you must queue for pasta. If you want pizza you stand in a different queue. A small side salad, yet another queue. "You spend more time carrying trays than an actress in Berlin-Mitte. The audience in the pasta limbo can only consist of people who have worked for an insurance company for a long time and, like Stockholm syndrome, they can no longer get away from the industrial canteen feeling," writes TV host Beisenherz provocatively. While overly harsh in his assessment he's not entirely wrong judging by customers venting their frustrations in forums and social media channels. It isn’t uncommon for those who ordered pizza to have already finished eating while there is little movement in the pasta queue. Long term that doesn't go down well, QSRs competitors like L’Osteria are handling this process differently, with much success. https://preview.redd.it/6cas01oked0d1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da6e0b4bc0e07dbee558de412feb414cd598d4a Tipping PointWhere are now in the year 2016 and things start to deteriorate visibility. Perhaps not for the leman’s eye but any business minded observer can see that there are problems under the hood. Yes, revenue grows yet another whopping 50 million to almost 250 million euros but half of that growth, comes from acquisitions of restaurants that the group didn’t already own 100%, which is now being fully consolidated within the group’s accounts. Here is a concrete example. In the past, Vapiano SE, the group’s top holding company held an indirect 50% stake in a French subgroup via the subsidiary VAP Restaurants SA, based in Luxembourg, and included this as an associated company in the Vapiano SE consolidated financial statements using the equity method. Due to the acquisition of additional shares in September of 2016, Vapiano SE's indirect share in the French subgroup increased to 75%. This means that Vapiano SE takes control of the French subgroup, which is therefore included in the group’s financial statements as part of the full consolidation. The revenue from the acquired subsidiary now recorded in the consolidated income statement amounts to 12.8 million euros. While that’s great for the top line, the loss of the fully consolidated entity equates to 0.2 million euros. Yes, you are buying revenue, but there are losses attached to them, not profits. A similar case is the Swedish entity that runs eight restaurants with revenue of 11.5 million euros but has losses of 235 thousand euros. So much for Strategy 2020 and “profitable” growth.That year the group’s operating profits are absolutely tanking, halving to 3.5 million euros. Operating profits are now a mere 1,4% of revenue. Remember original founder Mark Korzilius who talked about operating margins of 25% to 28% at the restaurant level? Yes, there are overhead costs for the organization that sits above the chain of restaurants, but operating margins that low indicates a course correction is needed. What’s telling is that in the annual report, in the management discussion section, the company starts talking about EBITDA as a proxy measure of profitability, rather than operating profit or net income. This wasn’t the case in the years before. Is this window dressing for an upcoming IPO? EBITDA is short for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. How can you measure profitability of a restaurant chain that absolutely and unequivocally needs capital investment to maintain its restaurant operations, the very source of cash generation, by simply excluding this maintenance charge (depreciation in the income statement)? Vapiano’s own annual report talks about the fact that existing restaurants must be rejuvenated from time to time and that new interior designs have to be implemented every few years. These things wear and tear, they go out of style, kitchen equipment breaks and needs replacement. This business absolutely needs maintenance capital expenditure, why anyone talks of profits before these maintenance costs is beyond me. Fun fact: in the previous annual report EBITDA is mentioned seven times, mostly around restaurant acquisitions and financing, not however as a profit indication for the group. In the new annual report, EBITDA is mentioned 28 times. Maybe it’s just me but belated Charlie Munger liked to call EBITDA: bullsh*t earnings. When in doubt I stick with Charlie. Interestingly, EBITDA for Vapiano keeps growing while operating and net profits keep falling. Operating cashflow for the group that year is about 21 million euros, but capital expenditure is 30 million and acquisitions for subsidiaries another 20 million. To finance these expenditures another 28 million euros of debt and 16 million of equity is raised. Net debt rises above 130 million euro. The operating cashflow of the group before any capital expenditures is 21 million euros. I am not sure free cash flow would be significantly positive after maintenance capex is paid out; it’s not broken out so we can’t be sure. Granted, I am not on the ground during this time, and I am not in the board room, I am simply reading what’s in front of me, but to me this is starting to look like a distressed situation. Regardless, the following year the company goes public. IPOWhere are now in the year 2017 and its Vapiano’s first year as public company. The company’s annual report reads the following “Sales revenue, like-for-like growth (LfL) and the earnings figures EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are used as the most important financial performance indicators for controlling operational business activities.” The very same report however also says: “The majority of the group's investments regularly go towards opening new restaurant locations and modernizing existing restaurants. The latter are differentiated into regular replacement investments that occur during ongoing operations (Maintenance CAPEX) and fundamental investments in the renovation of a restaurant (Remodeling CAPEX). On average, a restaurant remodeling takes place nine years after opening.” It says it right there in their own report; every nine years a remodeling is taking place. Remodeling and updating is not cost free, so why exclude depreciation charges which reflect capital expenditures? I understand that perhaps you would want to strip out one-off opening costs, that’s fine and fair, but don’t go overboard.The number of restaurants increases by 26 (previous year: 13) to a total of 205. The increase consists of 27 new openings and one closure. Group revenue grows to an astonishing 325 million euros but here comes the shocker, operating profits turn negative to 25 million. Fine, strip out foreign exchange losses of 3 million, IPO costs of 5.8 million and new opening costs of 6.1 million and you still have 10 million euros of operational losses. All the while the debt load of almost 130 million hasn’t materially changed, so those operating losses are before a six-million-euro interest payment. 184 million euros are raised through the IPO of which 85 million go to the company. This money is earmarked for further expansion as the group has ambitions to almost double the footprint to 330 restaurants by the end of 2020. The company is currently not profitable on an operating basis, and still wants to expand aggressively? I don’t get it. The remaining 100 million euros of the IPO money raised is distributed to co-founder Gregor Gerlach and Wella heirs Hans-Joachim and Gisa Sander. The family office of the former Tchibo owners Günter and Daniela Herz with a 44% stake, don’t sell a single share. After the IPO, 32% of all the company’s shares are now in free float. One year later, in 2018, things get even worse. Revenue grows to 371 million, but operating losses mount to 85 million euros, that’s before interest expenses of 9 million. Even the beloved EBITDA figure turns negative, meaning the operating business before any expansionary or even maintenance capital expenditures is loss making. All regions are experiencing significant deterioration in their earnings profiles. Like for like sales are down 1% across the board. That’s revenue, not profitability. The question naturally arises: is the Group approaching its natural saturation point here or this operational by nature? The operating cash flow is now 9 million while financing cost are close to 7 million. That leaves 2 million for maintenance capital for 74 own restaurants and 76 joint ventures ones. Describing this as financially tight, would be an understatement. Things are not looking good at this point. Yet the company still grows restaurants by 26 new sites. 64 million euros are spent on acquisitions, new openings, and maintenance costs, financed through a 20 million-euro equity raise and 72 million of new debt. The Company now has net debt outstanding of over 160 million euros. After the equity raise and by the end of the year 2018, Mayfair owns 47.4%, VAP Leipzig, Gregor Gerlach’s entity owns 18.9% and the Sander couple own 15.5% of the company. Yes, the Sanders and Gerlach may have taken 100 million euros off the table, but they still have substantial skin in the game. Plus, Mayfair hasn’t sold a single share and instead injects more money into the company through the equity round. The stock has now fallen from its IPO price of 23 euros per share to under 6 euros by the end of 2018. Something must be done here. And indeed, there is pivot in strategy and a hard push for change. At last, the management team abandons its aggressive growth plan and curtails new openings significantly. Additionally, the team wants to run a thorough analysis of weak locations to then either discontinue or sell sites. In Europe, the operating focus will be put on corporate restaurants and joint ventures in major cities to ensure the ideal size and location to match the respective demographic target group. Outside of Europe, the franchising business is being expanded and at the same time a consolidation of the existing corporate and joint venture markets is being sought. All future investments will be reviewed to achieve higher rates of returns on new openings. Investments are also being made in the renovation of older restaurants. The goal in the future is to also open smaller formats, like Mini-Vapianos (less than 400 square meters) or Freestander at prominent transportation hubs outside city centers (currently in Fürth and Toulouse) to cater to individual location requirements, and to enter new partnerships. I am not sure why management hasn’t stopped all expansion altogether, bringing the ship in order first, getting profitable, clean up, all hands-on deck before considering any further expansions whatsoever. But again, it’s easy to comment from the sidelines; maybe they saw white spaces that would be covered by competing concepts if they weren’t moving fast and aggressively enough. Although pushing internationally means competing with local players such as Jamie's Italian, Prezzo, Pizza Express, Wagamama, Nando's and many more which brings in its own dynamic. Management also aims to enhance guest satisfaction. This involves refining operational processes, reorganizing the support center, and refocusing on the core offering: providing fresh and high-quality Italian food at affordable prices for a broad audience. The group also aims to reduce waiting times, especially during lunch, while also improving the evening atmosphere. There is even what I would call an evolution, away from Vapiano’s original concept, reorientating the customer journey. The ordering flow is being changed, offering guests synchronized preparations of all dishes while eliminating wait times at the cooking stations. The open show kitchen remains, staying true to original mantra of freshness and transparency but now guests can choose their preferred method of ordering through a mobile app, using a digital order point (kiosk), or by personally placing an order with a waiter. Guests can still freely choose their table and are then informed about the complete preparation of their order through a pager or their smartphone. This is a substantial deviation from the original concept, but a needed one. The group is also exploring and implementing the expansion of take-away and home delivery services but only at suitable locations, not universally across new openings. I am not sure why home delivery is even a priority here; it adds operational complexity. It’s better to clean up shop first and get back to the basics before adding new complexities. To be fair management does try to simplify. There are 49 different permanent dishes on the menu and additional 10 seasonal ones. Customers can choose from eleven different types of pasta. There is simply too much choice, and it makes orders complicated. The company announced to slim the menu down to its most popular and typical Vapiano dishes. There’s no need for an Asian salad at an Italian restaurant. "We have to go back to the roots, i.e. classic, honest Italian cuisine" says COO Everke. Regardless, in November of 2018, the supervisory board pulls the plug on CEO Jochen Halfmann and replaces him with Cornelius Everke. Everke himself has just become COO five months ago. Since 2017 he was responsible for international expansion. From 2011 to 2017 that role was filled by Mario Bauer – put a pin in that name, he’ll play a key role in the groups fate later. Then nine months later, in the middle of 2019, Cornelius Everke quits. He essentially concludes that his skillset and experience in the areas of internation expansion is no longer needed in the foreseeable future. To put it differently: Vapiano has moved from a growth story and has become a restructuring case, and other skills are required for that job. In June of 2019 Everke says the following “(we’ve) made a bit of a mistake when it came to foreign expansion”. No sh#t. Vapiano postpones the presentation of the 2018 annual financial statements three times in the spring of 2019, citing negotiations over an urgently needed loan of 30 million euros. It’s not until the end of May that a binding loan commitment comes through from the financing banks and major shareholders. We are now in August of 2019 and the corona pandemic is just around the corner. Supervisory board chief Vanessa Hall takes over as interim-CEO and things are unravelling. Visitor numbers are declining; originally, it was planned to sell the US business but halfway through the year the buyer cannot come up with the money. But not all restaurants are performing poorly. The group's poor figures contrast starkly as an example with the experiences of the Swiss-German franchisee, who runs six restaurants. The Sodano family in Switzerland pays Vapiano a royalty of 6% of sales for the use of the brand. Enrico Sodano explains in an interview that they operate largely autonomously from the licensor. If an “accident” were to occur, he could immediately replace the Vapiano sign with Sodano, he says. The family concluded the rents and contracts with employees and suppliers independently. The Sodano family have six locations in Bern, Basel and Zurich, around one million guests every year and 350 employees. Things are going well on the ground. The delivery service they’ve built is offering them a second income stream. Expansion into Winterthur, St. Gallen and Lucerne are being planned; small locations with 150 to 250 square meters and an attached delivery service. Originally, Vapiano restaurants used to be huge but for such a large restaurant to be profitable, 800 to 1,000 guests per day are needed. That’s possible in medium-sized cities, but not in smaller towns which is why the Vapiano group now also supports smaller formats. Back to our corporate drama. The 2019 annual report would be the last report the group files. By the end 2019 the outstanding debt of the company is at an astronomical 450 million euros. Revenue has grown by another 7%, produced by four net new openings through two JVs and two franchise restaurants but operating losses come in at 317 million euros. That sound like an absolute shocker at first but depreciation and amortization charges are 345 million, so that operating cash flow is actually positive but unfortunately capital expenditures and interest payments are so large that they are eating up all of the company’s operating cash flow. Then in the beginning of 2020 Corona hits with full force and the world shuts down. As a result of the measures to prevent further spreading of the virus, the group is forced to cease all global business operations (except in Sweden). While all these shutdowns are happening, the group is the middle of negotiating with its lending banks and main shareholders. There are additional financing needs for restructuring measures, even without a pandemic happening in the background. The situation is so dire that the company starts pleading to the German government to roll out the package of financial help more quickly. Unfortunately, it’s to no end. The rapid closure of restaurants and the resulting lack of operating cash inflows in conjunction with the additional financing requirements, lead to the company’s final knockout punch. In April of 2020, the Vapiano group officially files for insolvency proceedings. The end of an era. New BeginningsBecause of the pandemic, the majority of the group's subsidiaries in Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, the United States, Sweden, and China also file for insolvency or seek liquidation. The US business never gets sold in the end and is wound down. In the summer of 2020, significant group divestments occur, including the sale of 75% shares in the group's French subsidiaries, shares in franchisor companies, Australian subsidiaries, German subsidiaries, associated companies, self-managed restaurants in Germany, and insolvency-related sales in the Netherlands, Great Britain, and Sweden. The buyer of the Vapiano brand and one of these bundles of Vapiano restaurants is company named Love & Food Restaurant Holding, a consortium led by Mario C. Bauer – a name I told you to remember. Bauer was a former Vapiano board member and led the national and international expansion, opening 200 sites in 33 countries from 2011 to 2017 until he was succeeded by Cornelius Everke. Bauer didn’t feel comfortable with the IPO at the time but clearly has a lot of managerial and entrepreneurial talent.The buyer consortium is an absolute A-Team comprised of European QSR top league hitters, including the founder of the Pret A Manger chain Sinclair Beecham; Henry McGovern, the founder and Ex-CEO of the giant international restaurant and foodservice operator AmRest; the Van der Valk Family that runs hotels and Vapiano restaurants in the Netherlands, and co-founder and ex-CEO Gregor Gerlach. The acquisition value is 15 million euros and entails 30 Vapiano restaurants in Germany, albeit that’s just the purchase price which comes on top of any capital investment needed to refresh and return the sites to its former glory. Nevertheless, just as a thought experiment, if you can get each site to 2 million euros of revenue and 400,000 euros in operating profit on average, which wouldn’t be an overly aggressively assumption given the company’s history, you’ve got yourself a package that can deliver restaurant-level operating profits of 12 million euros or more. It’s not disclosed how much capex was needed to refresh the operations, just that fact that the overall investment plus purchase price was a middle double-digit million-euro figure. Stil, it probably was a decent purchase. The same consortium buys Vapiano’s French business for 25 million euros just two weeks prior. After the transaction concludes, the master franchise is given to Delf Neumann and his Gastro & Soul GmbH. Neumann is an experienced operator, and he is ambitious to revitalise the brand with new services and products. For example, instead of pizza, the restaurants will be serving pinsa - a flatbread made from sourdough, wheat and rice flour, topped similarly to a pizza. It targets a more health-oriented customer base looking for a less calory heavy option. The menu overall is expanded by including a variety of vegan and vegetarian dishes. https://preview.redd.it/kpt7ea6red0d1.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9930ced85ee364e9df414547cae06b47a03fc19 Today Neumann’s Gastro & Soul GmbH operates 18 Vapianos on its own account and has 29 franchise sites, amongst other brands. By the year 2021, Vapiano operates 191 restaurants in 34 countries. This is around 50 fewer sites than before the bankruptcy. The number of branches is particularly thinned out in Germany – from 80 to 55. Nevertheless, Vapiano's home country remains by far the largest market, followed by France with 35 restaurants and Austria with 15 locations. “We have shrunk ourselves to health,” says Bauer in the aftermath and there is no further shrinking planned. Quite the opposite, the smell of expansion is in the air again – pun intended. Not as aggressively as before and with a new menu and ordering process. Overall, the team around Bauer is filled with industry experts with knowledge and networks gained over decades who have a great track record, a long-term view, and the staying power to let Vapiano breath and finds its way back to success. The pressure of being a public company with all the associated quarterly, half-year and yearly disincentives have been removed. The menu is changed and extended with new types of pasta and sauces with significantly more vegetarian and vegan dishes available. Guests can order with restaurant staff, at terminals or on their phones and there are barcodes attached to the tables identify the respective seat. The food is brought to your table, all at the same time if you are in a group, no more annoyances with waiting in line. There is a plan for smaller, 350 square meter locations, with half the number of guests and significantly fewer staff and less set-up costs required to make the economics work. Locations that capitalize on remote work and increased demand for local lunch options, higher population density with shorter delivery routes and therefore cost-effective in house delivery services are targeted. And Bauer is testing the concept of ghost kitchens, which operate without a dining room or service staff, focusing solely on preparing food for delivery services, which for obvious reasons have a very different operational set up and footprint. Original founder Mark Korzilius however is not entirely convinced. He is not a fan of the pinsa for instance and he considers Vapiano's pizza as its cash cow, flagship product and believes that the core Vapiano proposition of Pizza, Pasta, Bar that has given the company its original success is being diluted. He instead admires the competitor L'Osteria, saying they’ve done a better job by focusing on Italian classics, especially the impressively large pizzas that sticks out beyond the plate is leaving every customer in awe. The guys who run L’Osteria are the same guys who have built Vapiano with him in the first place. Bauer on the other hand, like a true business leader, remains undeterred, stating that he is frequently asked whether Vapiano's restart was bold or foolish. He believes in entrepreneurship, franchising, in his experienced fellow partners and importantly the Vapiano concept. By the year 2024 you can find over 140 Vapiano branded restaurant in 27 countries across the globe, including locations far away from its birthplace like Australia, USA, Columbia, Chile, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. And why not? Italian food is, and will remain to be, incredibly popular. Vapiano offers fresh and tasty food at affordable prices in a good atmosphere. This combination of attributes should attract a lot of customers. It certainly has in the past. For more stories: WIP Thomas Weitzendoerfer Substack |
2024.05.12 11:21 Catezero On Mother's Day: alt title "On Why Editors Exist as an Occupation"
Tomorrow is Mother's Day. I forgot. My son's father never has him make me a card or buy me a box of chocolates or call me. And I won't have my own mother to call. So it slipped my mind until I looked over my sales numbers last night and realized customers were stockpiling for something. And today was strange and brought up a lot of thoughts Ive had over the last few years so Im posting them to meander while i wander and to get it off my chest.
And today was a strange day indeed. I woke up to a call from my brother. Usually that ringtone is reserved for my boss so when I rolled over in bed and realized it was my brother calling I was confused. My brother and I haven't spoken in nearly 6 months since we had a conversation where he said I'm "just like mom". The meme on its surface was benign and I know he didn't mean any malice behind it, simply the banter of two abused siblings and their patter, but the words stung. I didn't handle myself with grace and dignity at the time - I lost my temper, wrote him a barrage of messages about how insulting it was to be compared to the woman who had emotionally, mentally, spiritually, and sometimes physically ruined us to the point that none of her three children speak to her, none of which have the same reason,, and that I wouldn't be speaking to him until an apology had been given in good faith. I waited a few days and when no apology came, I blocked him on all but one app, texted our dad about the situation and how hurt I was, and moved on. Christmas, New Years, his birthday came and went, and we haven't spoken.
Back in 2021 when the world was ending, my mother fell down the QAnon rabbit hole. She has always been a religious woman which was the crux of our constant loggerheads, but she fell further into the ideology of Trump as saviour, 5G microchips, vaccinations. Despite her verbal and emotional abuse, my mother was always a believer in medicine which I respected so to see this contrast was abrupt and alarming. She had us vaccinated as children and young adults, she works as a care aide in a palliative care ward. And yet suddenly she was touting that the vaccinations were being forced, started sending me Trump memes. The irony of us being Canadian vis a vis her Trump support wasn't lost on my child who asked me if she was okay after one of her unhinged rants about how Donny was gonna save us all. When your then 5 year old asks you if grammy is mentally well you take stock.
And my mother herself grew up in an abusive home. Her parents raised foster children for additional income that her father molested, he deliberately gave her Hepatitis C, they came from noblesse but were the black sheep. Hours long "tea parties" where we learned etiquette were drilled into us early, a stagnant reminder of her parents familial orbit in political circles; out of a sense of loyalty she remained close to her mother at the least until the old womans death. So it's not shocking that she would perpetrate the abusive behaviour on her own children. I somehow got the worst of it being born with two X chromosomes when she "hated little girls because little girls grow into little bitches" but my brothers had their struggles too. My older brother left home at 18 because she somehow managed to parentify him and hold him under lock and key to the point he enlisted in the navy to get away from her. His last straw was when she called his wife a cunt (of all the things she ever said to him that was the one that MAYBE might have been 90% accurate, fuck you KK). That was in 2009. In 2011, my dad finally grew tired of her abuse of him specifically. He wasn't even AWARE of what was happening with us kids bc she'd conditioned us that if we said anything he wouldnt believe us - to this day, after hearing us tell him the truth, he feels such second hand guilt he spoils us rotten. He left her - my younger brother chose to live with my dad so she sold his car that he'd inherited from her parents (I got nothing in the inheritance because of those pesky xx chromosomes) to "pay [her] back" for all the money "[she] spent raising him". Never mind that he was 18, the car was in his name, and it was her duty to raise him as, you know, a parent. I held on desperately wanting my mother to love me, to treat me well. I begged my brothers to give her another chance, to let her back in. I gave up by 2013 but kept in contact for my son who was born in 2015. By 2021 I was starting to crack.
Late in 2021, just shy of my 31st birthday, I finally snapped in half. My mother posted a meme to Facebook where she compared the mask mandates to the holocaust and used a real photo of real people who died in the showers at Auschwitz as a shock tactic. My skin burned as I looked at the post and I wrote a scathing remark. I made very sure to do it in her comments because I knew when people asked why I'd gone scorched earth she would twist my words because she has done so a million times. I made it extremely clear that her ideology and mine had finally collapsed like a black star and I could not have her near my child's malleable brain spewing her filth and untruths. That I would not allow him to grow up with her hateful heart influencing him and that I was choosing to be a better mother than she'd been by first protecting him from her and her dangerous views.
She'd already endangered his paternal nana's life once (she's a transplantee) by showing up at my house unvaxxed and maskless when she works in a fucking hospital. That I put up with quite a lot of her shit over the years because she is my MOM and i love her but I cannot do this anymore. I then blocked her, called my ex to let him know what I had done since they live in the same town so she might try to circumvent me to see our son so he was prepared (and he was fully on board for bc he trusts my dad wholeheartedly but trusts my mom as much as he trusts a scorpion in his palm) and left it alone. She left me a few vms but by January I stopped hearing from her.
So today I rolled over in bed to see my brothers name and well....we haven't talked since our fight so....it's probably important. I hesitated to pick up but what if it's about dad? I answered and gave a tight "hello", my first in months. His voice was so familiar and my chest felt so tight.
The convo started as I expected - he had something important to tell me. I braced for it and then he said "uncle rodger passed away last week". I couldn't help but laugh. Uncle rodger was my moms oldest sibling, I think he was like 15 years older than her so he'd be nearly 80? I met him a grand total of MAYBE 5 times in my entire life, we had exactly ONE conversation in 2011 at my moms father's funeral. Her dad abused rodger badly and he'd gone to the funeral to basically spit on his dads grave, his daughter knitted during the funeral and mockingly laughed whenever anyone said a kind word - a sentiment shared by all his granddaughters equally. mom forced me to attend for "family optics" as her dad was related to several politicians who were in attendance. Uncle rodg and I had a smoke on the balcony and talked about what a giant piece of shit Andrew was in life and how funny it was everyone was pretending to be sad over him being dead. He said "ur just as smart as mom says u are" and I said "idk how the fuck she'd know that she can't even spell my name properly and she's my own grandmother" and he laughed ironically. It was a bonding moment for sure but we'd never spoken before and haven't since so i was confused as to why my brother thought I'd even care about poor old Uncle rodg.
When my son was born, my ex and I agreed on one thing- our son would be raised agnostically and that we would teach him about religion, but that he'd be free to choose on his own what he believes in and we would be supportive if he did eventually choose to follow religion but not actively participate. To that end, we forbade my mother from bringing him to church or Bible study. On one occasion where I trusted her to babysit she sent me a photo of my son, then aged 3, with a small child. "They're having a great time!" She captioned. "Where are you?" I inquired. She did not respond. The next day, when I picked him up she elaborated that they'd had an "impromptu" bible study session and brought him along. I flashed back to all the times I'd said I don't believe in God and she'd slapped me across the face. I decided not to let him spend the night at grammys anymore.
I laughed into the phone. "Oh noooooo I'm devastated about my uncle who died that I barely knew". My brother managed a half laugh - they HAD been in touch over the years and were adversaries. My brother, seeking some form of family had reached out over the years and met with antagonism and hostility which he would deliver back incisively.
Rodg was the oldest of 5, mom was the baby, and because of the age difference, the older 3 had their little clique and mom and the second youngest were always quite close, so by proxy my brother and I were quite close to uncle Henri. I grew apart from him after one too many rants about how much he loved Harper but my brother, always dutiful, has kept in somewhat touch. After broaching the news my brother let me know he'd also called uncle Henri to give his condolences.
And then he said something very interesting. He told me uncle Henri said "you know, your mother misses you. You should get in touch with her. She has three children and none of them speak to her and she doesn't understand why". My brother obviously brushed him off; he hasn't spoken to her in over a decade, why would he now? Then my brother gently said to me "you know, there's an irony, that she was treated badly and did the same thing to her own children but doesn't recognize it.". It wasn't a direct apology, but I recognized it for what it was - a tacit admission that we'd both endured hell, and he'd chosen this moment to tackle this subject with me without using the words "im sorry", but also to let the gates of communication reopen again so we could go back to whatever normal we had. He was acknowledging my abuse for real, something he'd never done. He was sorry.
The rest of the conversation was brief. We each gave a quick update of our lives as if nothing ever happened and said we'd chat soon; I suppose thats how it goes when you love someone very much but have a stupid argument where you're not mad at each other but take it out on each other.
I relayed the conversation to my partner and as I did so something struck me - when my uncle said "she doesn't understand". All three of us explicitly told her exactly why we were cutting her off when we did so, so there's nothing to misunderstand. My partner said "some people think the world is happening to them". If my uncle had said "she feels badly about everything and wants to apologize or start over" that would be a completely different beast, but she truly sees this as something the world has done to her rather than something she has created. The irony is the best lesson my mother ever taught me is that when you point a finger at someone, there are three pointing back at yourself. It's a shame she can't see it.
So tomorrow is mothers day. I won't be celebrating, I'll be thinking about ways I can do things differently for my own son. There will be no benediction for my mother, but maybe I can save myself.
And to those of you who also have narcissistic mothers, may you have a day of peace, may you not feel guilty if you cut her off, may you tell your own story and find some catharis
submitted by Catezero to u/Catezero [link] [comments]
And today was a strange day indeed. I woke up to a call from my brother. Usually that ringtone is reserved for my boss so when I rolled over in bed and realized it was my brother calling I was confused. My brother and I haven't spoken in nearly 6 months since we had a conversation where he said I'm "just like mom". The meme on its surface was benign and I know he didn't mean any malice behind it, simply the banter of two abused siblings and their patter, but the words stung. I didn't handle myself with grace and dignity at the time - I lost my temper, wrote him a barrage of messages about how insulting it was to be compared to the woman who had emotionally, mentally, spiritually, and sometimes physically ruined us to the point that none of her three children speak to her, none of which have the same reason,, and that I wouldn't be speaking to him until an apology had been given in good faith. I waited a few days and when no apology came, I blocked him on all but one app, texted our dad about the situation and how hurt I was, and moved on. Christmas, New Years, his birthday came and went, and we haven't spoken.
Back in 2021 when the world was ending, my mother fell down the QAnon rabbit hole. She has always been a religious woman which was the crux of our constant loggerheads, but she fell further into the ideology of Trump as saviour, 5G microchips, vaccinations. Despite her verbal and emotional abuse, my mother was always a believer in medicine which I respected so to see this contrast was abrupt and alarming. She had us vaccinated as children and young adults, she works as a care aide in a palliative care ward. And yet suddenly she was touting that the vaccinations were being forced, started sending me Trump memes. The irony of us being Canadian vis a vis her Trump support wasn't lost on my child who asked me if she was okay after one of her unhinged rants about how Donny was gonna save us all. When your then 5 year old asks you if grammy is mentally well you take stock.
And my mother herself grew up in an abusive home. Her parents raised foster children for additional income that her father molested, he deliberately gave her Hepatitis C, they came from noblesse but were the black sheep. Hours long "tea parties" where we learned etiquette were drilled into us early, a stagnant reminder of her parents familial orbit in political circles; out of a sense of loyalty she remained close to her mother at the least until the old womans death. So it's not shocking that she would perpetrate the abusive behaviour on her own children. I somehow got the worst of it being born with two X chromosomes when she "hated little girls because little girls grow into little bitches" but my brothers had their struggles too. My older brother left home at 18 because she somehow managed to parentify him and hold him under lock and key to the point he enlisted in the navy to get away from her. His last straw was when she called his wife a cunt (of all the things she ever said to him that was the one that MAYBE might have been 90% accurate, fuck you KK). That was in 2009. In 2011, my dad finally grew tired of her abuse of him specifically. He wasn't even AWARE of what was happening with us kids bc she'd conditioned us that if we said anything he wouldnt believe us - to this day, after hearing us tell him the truth, he feels such second hand guilt he spoils us rotten. He left her - my younger brother chose to live with my dad so she sold his car that he'd inherited from her parents (I got nothing in the inheritance because of those pesky xx chromosomes) to "pay [her] back" for all the money "[she] spent raising him". Never mind that he was 18, the car was in his name, and it was her duty to raise him as, you know, a parent. I held on desperately wanting my mother to love me, to treat me well. I begged my brothers to give her another chance, to let her back in. I gave up by 2013 but kept in contact for my son who was born in 2015. By 2021 I was starting to crack.
Late in 2021, just shy of my 31st birthday, I finally snapped in half. My mother posted a meme to Facebook where she compared the mask mandates to the holocaust and used a real photo of real people who died in the showers at Auschwitz as a shock tactic. My skin burned as I looked at the post and I wrote a scathing remark. I made very sure to do it in her comments because I knew when people asked why I'd gone scorched earth she would twist my words because she has done so a million times. I made it extremely clear that her ideology and mine had finally collapsed like a black star and I could not have her near my child's malleable brain spewing her filth and untruths. That I would not allow him to grow up with her hateful heart influencing him and that I was choosing to be a better mother than she'd been by first protecting him from her and her dangerous views.
She'd already endangered his paternal nana's life once (she's a transplantee) by showing up at my house unvaxxed and maskless when she works in a fucking hospital. That I put up with quite a lot of her shit over the years because she is my MOM and i love her but I cannot do this anymore. I then blocked her, called my ex to let him know what I had done since they live in the same town so she might try to circumvent me to see our son so he was prepared (and he was fully on board for bc he trusts my dad wholeheartedly but trusts my mom as much as he trusts a scorpion in his palm) and left it alone. She left me a few vms but by January I stopped hearing from her.
So today I rolled over in bed to see my brothers name and well....we haven't talked since our fight so....it's probably important. I hesitated to pick up but what if it's about dad? I answered and gave a tight "hello", my first in months. His voice was so familiar and my chest felt so tight.
The convo started as I expected - he had something important to tell me. I braced for it and then he said "uncle rodger passed away last week". I couldn't help but laugh. Uncle rodger was my moms oldest sibling, I think he was like 15 years older than her so he'd be nearly 80? I met him a grand total of MAYBE 5 times in my entire life, we had exactly ONE conversation in 2011 at my moms father's funeral. Her dad abused rodger badly and he'd gone to the funeral to basically spit on his dads grave, his daughter knitted during the funeral and mockingly laughed whenever anyone said a kind word - a sentiment shared by all his granddaughters equally. mom forced me to attend for "family optics" as her dad was related to several politicians who were in attendance. Uncle rodg and I had a smoke on the balcony and talked about what a giant piece of shit Andrew was in life and how funny it was everyone was pretending to be sad over him being dead. He said "ur just as smart as mom says u are" and I said "idk how the fuck she'd know that she can't even spell my name properly and she's my own grandmother" and he laughed ironically. It was a bonding moment for sure but we'd never spoken before and haven't since so i was confused as to why my brother thought I'd even care about poor old Uncle rodg.
When my son was born, my ex and I agreed on one thing- our son would be raised agnostically and that we would teach him about religion, but that he'd be free to choose on his own what he believes in and we would be supportive if he did eventually choose to follow religion but not actively participate. To that end, we forbade my mother from bringing him to church or Bible study. On one occasion where I trusted her to babysit she sent me a photo of my son, then aged 3, with a small child. "They're having a great time!" She captioned. "Where are you?" I inquired. She did not respond. The next day, when I picked him up she elaborated that they'd had an "impromptu" bible study session and brought him along. I flashed back to all the times I'd said I don't believe in God and she'd slapped me across the face. I decided not to let him spend the night at grammys anymore.
I laughed into the phone. "Oh noooooo I'm devastated about my uncle who died that I barely knew". My brother managed a half laugh - they HAD been in touch over the years and were adversaries. My brother, seeking some form of family had reached out over the years and met with antagonism and hostility which he would deliver back incisively.
Rodg was the oldest of 5, mom was the baby, and because of the age difference, the older 3 had their little clique and mom and the second youngest were always quite close, so by proxy my brother and I were quite close to uncle Henri. I grew apart from him after one too many rants about how much he loved Harper but my brother, always dutiful, has kept in somewhat touch. After broaching the news my brother let me know he'd also called uncle Henri to give his condolences.
And then he said something very interesting. He told me uncle Henri said "you know, your mother misses you. You should get in touch with her. She has three children and none of them speak to her and she doesn't understand why". My brother obviously brushed him off; he hasn't spoken to her in over a decade, why would he now? Then my brother gently said to me "you know, there's an irony, that she was treated badly and did the same thing to her own children but doesn't recognize it.". It wasn't a direct apology, but I recognized it for what it was - a tacit admission that we'd both endured hell, and he'd chosen this moment to tackle this subject with me without using the words "im sorry", but also to let the gates of communication reopen again so we could go back to whatever normal we had. He was acknowledging my abuse for real, something he'd never done. He was sorry.
The rest of the conversation was brief. We each gave a quick update of our lives as if nothing ever happened and said we'd chat soon; I suppose thats how it goes when you love someone very much but have a stupid argument where you're not mad at each other but take it out on each other.
I relayed the conversation to my partner and as I did so something struck me - when my uncle said "she doesn't understand". All three of us explicitly told her exactly why we were cutting her off when we did so, so there's nothing to misunderstand. My partner said "some people think the world is happening to them". If my uncle had said "she feels badly about everything and wants to apologize or start over" that would be a completely different beast, but she truly sees this as something the world has done to her rather than something she has created. The irony is the best lesson my mother ever taught me is that when you point a finger at someone, there are three pointing back at yourself. It's a shame she can't see it.
So tomorrow is mothers day. I won't be celebrating, I'll be thinking about ways I can do things differently for my own son. There will be no benediction for my mother, but maybe I can save myself.
And to those of you who also have narcissistic mothers, may you have a day of peace, may you not feel guilty if you cut her off, may you tell your own story and find some catharis
2024.05.11 13:31 devoid0101 New Kp-like planetary geomagnetic activity indices: Hourly (Hp60) and half-hourly (Hp30) indices
 | It looks like we touched upon KP11, a G6 storm (if such a thing existed). Serious solarmax spaceweather submitted by devoid0101 to Heliobiology [link] [comments] “The geomagnetic Hpo index is a Kp-like index with a time resolution of half an hour, called Hp30, and one hour, called Hp60. besides that, the Hpo index is not capped at 9 like Kp, but is an open ended index that describes the strongest geomagnetic storms more nuanced than the three-hourly Kp, which is limited to the maximum value of 9. Next to the Hpo we also provide the linear apo index (ap30 and ap60). The Hpo index was developed in the H2020 project SWAMI and is described in Yamazaki et al (2022). Abstract The geomagnetic activity index Kp is widely used but is restricted by low time resolution (3-hourly) and an upper limit. To address this, new geomagnetic activity indices, Hpo, are introduced. Similar to Kp, Hpo expresses the level of planetary geomagnetic activity in units of thirds (0o, 0+, 1−, 1o, 1+, 2−, …) based on the magnitude of geomagnetic disturbances observed at subauroral observatories. Hpo has a higher time resolution than Kp. 30-min (Hp30) and 60-min (Hp60) indices are produced. The frequency distribution of Hpo is designed to be similar to that of Kp so that Hpo may be used as a higher time-resolution alternative to Kp. Unlike Kp, which is capped at 9o, Hpo is an open-ended index and thus can characterize severe geomagnetic storms more accurately. Hp30, Hp60 and corresponding linearly scaled ap30 and ap60 are available, in near real time, at the GFZ website (https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hpo-index). Key Points New Kp-like planetary geomagnetic activity indices, Hpo, are presented Hourly (Hp60) and half-hourly (Hp30) indices are available from GFZ website Hpo indices are open-ended without the upper limit at 9o Plain Language Summary The geomagnetic activity index Kp is a measure of planetary geomagnetic activity, expressed in units of thirds (0o, 0+, 1−, 1o, 1+, 2−, …9o). Kp is widely used in the space physics community, as it is known to be a good proxy of the solar-wind energy input into the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. Kp has two important limitations. One is the temporal resolution. Kp is a three-hourly index, so that temporal features within 3 hr are not resolved. The other is the upper limit of the index. Kp does not exceed a maximum value of 9o, so that under extremely disturbed conditions, geomagnetic activity is not accurately represented. We introduce a group of new geomagnetic activity indices Hpo that overcomes these limitations. Hpo is designed to represent planetary geomagnetic activity in a similar way as Kp but with higher temporal resolution and without the upper limit at 9o. This paper describes the production of 30-min (Hp30) and 60-min (Hp60) indices, and demonstrates their properties in comparison with Kp. Hpo indices since 1995, including near-real-time values, are distributed through the GFZ website (https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hpo-index). 1 Introduction Variations in the solar wind cause changes in electric currents that flow in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The associated changes in the magnetic field can be observed using magnetometers on the ground. There exist various types of geomagnetic indices to monitor the intensity of geomagnetic disturbance associated with solar wind variations (Mayaud, 1980). The Kp index is one of the most widely used indices of geomagnetic activity. The derivation, application and historical background of Kp are detailed in Matzka, Stolle, et al. (2021), and thus are described here only briefly. Kp is derived from K indices (Bartels et al., 1939) evaluated at 13 subauroral observatories from both northern and southern hemispheres. A K index expresses geomagnetic activity on a scale of 0–9 at each observatory for a given 3-hourly interval of the UT day (00–03, 03–06, …, 21–24 UT). It is based on the range of geomagnetic disturbance over the 3-hourly interval, which may contain geomagnetic pulsations (McPherron, 2005; Saito, 1969), bays associated with substorms (McPherron, 1970; Lyons, 1996), sudden storm commencements and sudden impulses (Araki, 1994), geomagnetic storm main phase (Gonzalez et al., 1994) and solar-flare and eclipse effects (Yamazaki & Maute, 2017). K is designed to have a similar frequency distribution regardless of observatory, and thus it does not depend on latitude. K indices are converted to standardized Ks indices, which take into account the influence of seasonal and UT biases. Kp is the average of the 13 Ks indices expressed in units of thirds (0o, 0+, 1−, 1o, 1+, 2−, …, 9o), thus it represents planetary, rather than local, geomagnetic activity. The complete time series of the definitive Kp index since 1932 and nowcast indices for the most recent hours are available from the Kp website at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ (https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/) with a digital object identifier (DOI; Matzka, Bronkalla, et al., 2021). Real-time Kp forecasts (Shprits et al., 2019) based on solar wind data are also available from the GFZ website (https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/products-data/forecasts/kp-index-forecast). The Kp index has a wide range of applications in space physics studies. For example, Kp can be used to select undisturbed data from the measurements obtained from the magnetosphere, ionosphere or thermosphere to determine their climatological base states (e.g., Drob et al., 2015; Fejer et al., 2008). Kp is also often used for modeling the geospace response to solar wind variations. Just to give a few examples, Kp is used to drive the 3-D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt model (Subbotin et al., 2011), the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X; Liu et al., 2018) and the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter radar empirical atmospheric model (Emmert et al., 2021), among many other models of the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. Thomsen (2004) argued that what makes Kp so useful is its sensitivity to the latitudinal distance from the Kp stations to the equatorial edge of auroral currents, which is tightly linked to the strength of magnetospheric convection. Kp has two important limitations. One is the temporal resolution. Kp cannot resolve temporal features within 3 hr. For example, the onset of geomagnetic disturbance determined by Kp could be off from the actual onset by up to 3 hr. This could be an issue when Kp is used to drive a geospace model, because the state of the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere can change significantly within the 3-hr interval. As a compromise, some models use interpolated Kp values as input data, for example, thermospheric density models (Vallado & Finkleman, 2014), WACCM-X (Liu et al., 2018). The other limitation of Kp is its upper limit at 9o. Kp is not able to quantify geomagnetic activity after it reaches 9o. Extreme geomagnetic storms involving Kp = 9o are not necessarily equally strong in terms of geomagnetic disturbance. Extrapolated values of Kp above 9o are sometimes used for a better representation of geomagnetic activity during severe geomagnetic storms (e.g., Shprits et al., 2011). The objective of this paper is to introduce a new group of Kp-like geomagnetic indices. The indices are collectively called Hpo, where “H” stands for half-hourly or hourly, “p” for planetary, and “o” for open-ended. Hpo has been conceived and developed under the EU Horizon 2020 project, Space Weather Atmosphere Model and Indices (SWAMI; Jackson et al., 2020). Hpo is designed to represent planetary geomagnetic activity in a similar manner as Kp but with higher time resolution and without an upper limit, to overcome the limitations of Kp described above. The derivation of 30-min (Hp30) and 60-min (Hp60) indices is outlined in Section 2, and their basic properties are described in Section 7. 2 Derivation of Hpo Hpo indices are derived using 1-min magnetic data from the same 13 subauroral observatories as Kp (see Section 2.2 of Matzka, Stolle, et al., 2021). Time series of Hpo starts from the year 1995, because 1-min digital data are not available from all the observatories before 1995. The procedure for deriving Hpo is similar to that for nowcast Kp described in Matzka, Stolle, et al. (2021), involving the steps described below. 2.1 Evaluation and Removal of Quiet Curve Records of the geomagnetic field from a ground station contain regular quiet daily variation and geomagnetic disturbance (Chapman & Bartels, 1940). The estimation of the quiet curve for Hpo is based on the Finnish Meteorological Institute method (Sucksdorff et al., 1991), which uses 1-min data from the previous day, present day, and subsequent day. The quiet curve is obtained for the northward X and eastward Y components of the geomagnetic field, and subtracted from the corresponding data, which leaves geomagnetic disturbance. 2.2 Evaluation of the Magnitude of Geomagnetic Disturbance The magnitude of geomagnetic disturbance is evaluated for every 30-min interval for Hp30 and 60-min interval for Hp60. For a given time interval, the range of geomagnetic disturbance (i.e., maximum minus minimum value) is compared with the maximum absolute value of geomagnetic disturbance, and the larger value of the two is adopted as the magnitude of geomagnetic disturbance. This contrasts with the derivation procedure for Kp, which always uses the range of geomagnetic disturbance. We found that this modification of the procedure improves the compatibility between Hpo and Kp. The magnitude of geomagnetic disturbance is obtained for the X and Y components, and the larger value is used in the next step. 2.3 Evaluation of H30 and H60 Indices H30 and H60 indices are analogous to K indices for Kp, and are collectively called H herein. For the evaluation of K, an observatory-specific table is used for converting the magnitude of geomagnetic disturbance (in nT) to an integer K value (0–9). An example of the conversion table for the Niemegk observatory can be found in Table 1. New tables have been created for each observatory that convert the magnitude of geomagnetic disturbance to an H value (0–9). This was done, for each observatory, by generating a conversion table for H in such a manner that the frequency distribution of H is as similar as possible to the frequency distribution of K. The construction of the conversion tables for H is based on the geomagnetic data during 1995–2017, which were all the available data when the construction of Hpo was initiated. The conversion table for H30 and H60 for Niemegk is presented in Table 1. Furthermore, extended conversion tables are produced in order to allow H to go beyond 9. In the extended conversion tables, the maximum value of H is unlimited. The lower limit for H = 10 is given by the lower limit of H = 9 multiplied by a factor of 1.35. The lower limit of H = 11 is given by the lower limit of H = 10 multiplied by a factor of 1.30, and the lower limit of H = 12 is given by the lower limit of H = 11 multiplied by a factor of 1.20. For values of H greater than 12, the multiplication factor will be always 1.20, so that H can be defined no matter how large the magnitude of geomagnetic disturbance is. These multiplication factors were determined on a trial-and-error basis so that the behavior of the final Hpo index above 9o will be compatible with those of other open-ended indices (see Section 7). Table 1. Lower Limits of H30, H60, and K for the Niemegk Observatory Index 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 H30 (nT) 0 2.16 4.46 8.89 17.9 33.9 65.7 119 190 267 H60 (nT) 0 2.97 6.11 12.1 24.3 44.7 82.7 144 218 337 K (nT) 0 5.00 10.0 20.0 40.0 70.0 120 200 330 500 2.4 Evaluation of Hp30 and Hp60 Indices H indices are converted to standardized Hs indices using the same method for converting K to Ks. The conversion tables can be found in the Supporting Information of Matzka, Stolle, et al. (2021). The conversion of H to Hs minimizes the influence of seasonal and UT biases. Finally, the average of the 13 Hs indices is converted into Hpo values in units of thirds (0, 1/3, 2/3, 1, 4/3, 5/3, 2, …) in analog fashion as with the nowcast Kp (see Section 3.3 of Matzka, Stolle, et al., 2021) and expressed as (0o, 0+, 1−, 1o, 1+, 2−, …) following the convention for Kp. The Hpo value is derived using the H indices evaluated with the conversion tables capped at 9 (like the one shown in Table 1). If this initial Hpo value is 9o, all the H indices are re-evaluated using the extended conversion tables, in which H can go beyond 9, to re-calculate Hpo. This ensures that Hpo and Kp behave similarly up to 9− (and differently only at 9o and above). Like Kp, Hpo indices are a quasi-logarithmic, rather than linear, measure of geomagnetic activity, and thus are not suitable for basic arithmetic operations such as addition and multiplication. To avoid this issue, linearly scaled ap30 and ap60 indices (collectively called apo) are produced for Hp30 and Hp60, respectively, by using the table that is used for producing ap from Kp (Matzka, Stolle, et al., 2021) but extending its higher end in a similar manner as the extension of H tables above 9. The relationship between Hpo and apo is illustrated in Figure 1a. Like ap, values of apo correspond to half the magnitude of geomagnetic disturbance at Niemegk. Details are in the caption following the image Figure 1 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint (a) The relationship between Hpo and apo. (b–j) Frequency distributions of the occurrence of Kp, Hp60, and Hp30 values for different years. (k) Monthly mean values of ap, ap60, and ap30 during 1995–2020. The total sunspot number is also indicated. Hp30 and Hp60, along with their corresponding ap30 and ap60, are archived since 1995 and available, in near real time, from the GFZ website (https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hpo-index) with DOI (https://doi.org/10.5880/Hpo.0002) under the CC BY 4.0 license (Matzka et al., 2022, for data publication). 3 Some Properties of Hpo The frequency distributions of the occurrence of Hp30, Hp60, and Kp values are compared in Figures 1b–1j for every 3-year interval from 1995 to 2021. The distribution pattern of Kp is different in different solar cycle phases. For instance, during the solar minimum years 2007–2009 (Figure 1f) and 2019–2021 (Figure 1j), the occurrence rate of low Kp values (e.g., Kp ≤ 1o) is appreciably higher than during the solar maximum years 2001–2003 (Figure 1d) and 2013–2015 (Figure 1h). Hp30 and Hp60 reproduce different distribution patterns of Kp well, even for the later years not used in the construction of the conversion tables defining the H indices. The agreement of Hp30 and Hp60 with Kp during 2018–2021 (Figure 1j) suggests that the conversion tables for H indices are valid beyond the period 1995–2017. The linearly scaled ap30 and ap60 indices are suitable for assessing average geomagnetic activity over a certain period. Monthly mean values of ap30 and ap60 are plotted in Figure 1k. They are in good agreement with monthly mean ap, showing 11-year solar-cycle variation. The sunspot number is also displayed in Figure 1k for comparison. Geomagnetic activity is known to be highest during the declining phase of solar cycle due to the effects of recurrent high speed solar wind streams (Lockwood et al., 1999). In Figure 2, Hp30 (top), Hp60 (middle), and Kp (bottom) are compared with other geospace indices. The left panels show comparisons with Newell's coupling function (Newell et al., 2007), which is a measure of the energy input from the solar wind into the magnetosphere. The coupling function was derived using OMNI 5-min solar wind data (King & Papitashvili, 2005). Panels in the middle and right columns show comparisons with AE and PC indices, respectively. The AE index is a measure of auroral electrojet activity based on geomagnetic field measurements in the auroral region. The PC index represents geomagnetic activity in the polar region (Troshichev et al., 1988). Following Stauning (2007), the average of the PC indices from the northern (PCN) and southern (PCS) hemispheres were calculated using non-negative values. For comparisons with Hpo and Kp indices, 5-min solar wind data and 1-min AE and PC indices were averaged over every 30-min intervals. Hp60 and Kp are assumed to remain the same within their temporal windows. The solar wind data were shifted by 20 min to account for the delay due to energy transfer from the bow shock to the ionosphere (Manoj et al., 2008). Details are in the caption following the image Figure 2 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint Dependence of (a–c) Hp30, (d–f) Hp60, and (g–i) Kp on (a, d, g) Newell's solar-wind coupling function, (b, e, h) AE index, and (c, f, i) PC index. For the PC index, the average of the northern (PCN) and southern (PCS) indices is used, considering only their positive values. In each panel, black dots indicate the average of the solar-wind coupling function, AE or PC index at each Hpo or Kp value (0o, 0+, 1−, …, 9−), with error bars representing the standard deviation and the green curve representing the best-fitting third-order polynomial function for Hpo or Kp below 9o. The gray dots in panels (a–f) are individual data points for Hpo ≥9o, and the yellow dot is their average value. The solar-wind coupling function, AE and PC indices averaged at each value of Hpo and Kp from 0o to 9− are indicated in Figure 2 by black dots, with error bars representing the standard deviation. Curves in green show the best-fitting third-degree polynomial function for Hpo and Kp below 9o. The fitted curves for Hp30, Hp60, and Kp are similar to each other. The results suggest that for Hpo <9o, the dependence of Hp30 and Hp60 on the solar-wind coupling function, AE and PC indices is consistent with that of Kp. For Hpo ≥9o, the number of data points is rather small, and thus the average solar-wind coupling function, AE and PC indices were not calculated for each Hpo value. Instead, a single average value was derived using all the data corresponding to Hpo ≥9o (gray dots), which is indicated by the yellow dot in each panel of Figures 2a–2f. It is seen that the average value falls near the polynomial curve derived from the data for Hpo <9o. The results suggest that Hp30 and Hp60 can represent geomagnetic activity for Hpo ≥9o in the manner expected from their behavior for Hpo <9o. The behavior of Hpo at its high end is further illustrated in Figure 3 based on five geomagnetic storm events. The selected geomagnetic storms are those in November 2003, March 2001, October 2003, November 2004, and July 2002, which are the five most intense geomagnetic storms during the period considered in this study (1995–2021) according to the minimum value of the Dst index. The left panels show time series of Hp30, Hp60, and Kp, as well as the Dst index, over a 7-day interval, in which the third day corresponds to the storm main phase. The temporal evolution of Kp is generally well captured by Hp30 and Hp60. Variations within 3 hr are seen in Hp30 and Hp60, which are not resolved by Kp. The maximum values of Hp30, Hp60, Kp, and the minimum value of Dst are (9−, 9−, 9−, and −422) for the November 2003 event, (10o, 10−, 9−, and −387) for the March 2001 event, (12−, 12−, 9o, and −383) for the October 2003 event, (11−, 9−, 9−, and −374) for the November 2004 event and (11o, 11o, 9o, and −300) for the July 2002 event. Thus, according to Hpo, the October 2003 event is the strongest among the five. Hpo ≥9o is seen mainly during the storm main phase, when the Dst index rapidly decreases. The right panels compare the 3-hourly mean of Hp30 (calculated from ap30) and Kp. The correlation is rather good; the correlation coefficient r is greater than 0.98 in all cases. Similarly good correlation is found for the comparison between 3-hourly mean of Hp60 and Kp (not shown here). These results suggest that Hpo can represent geomagnetic activity in a similar way as Kp even during the strongest geomagnetic storms. Details are in the caption following the image Figure 3 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint (a, c, e, g, i) Time series of Kp, Hp60, Hp30, and Dst over a 7-day interval during strong geomagnetic storm events. Zero in the horizontal axis corresponds to 00 UT of the day with the storm main phase. (b, d, f, h, j) Comparison of Kp and three-hourly average of Hp30 during the strong geomagnetic storm events. The 3-hourly average of Hp30 is derived from the corresponding values of ap30. The correlation coefficient r is also indicated. To provide some insight into variations of Hp30 and Hp60 within 3 hr, Figure 4 depicts the response of ap30, ap60, and ap to isolated substorms. The substorm onset list based on the technique described by Newell and Gjerloev (2011a) was obtained from the SuperMAG website (https://supermag.jhuapl.edu/). We selected isolated substorm events where there is no other substorm onset in the preceding 6 hr and following 12 hr. A total of 1947 isolated substorm events have been identified during 1995–2018. Figure 4a shows the variation of the AE index averaged over those substorm events. The average AE index peaks approximately 1 hr after the onset, and decays gradually to go back to the pre-onset level in 3–4 hr. The average ap30 and ap60 indices (Figures 4b and 4c) show the increase and decrease of geomagnetic activity that occur within 3 hr around the substorm onset. ap (Figure 4d) is not able to fully resolve such a short-term variation due to its low time resolution. The results suggest that variation of Hpo within 3 hr can contain physically meaningful information, which is not resolved by Kp. Details are in the caption following the image Figure 4 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint Superposed epoch analysis of (a) AE, (b) ap30, (c) ap60, and (d) Kp over 1947 isolated substorm events identified during 1995–2018 based on the method of Newell and Gjerloev (2011a). Error bars represent the standard error of the mean. Zero in the horizontal axis corresponds to the substorm onset. 4 Summary and Outlook We have described a group of new open-ended geomagnetic activity indices Hpo. Hourly (Hp60) and half-hourly (Hp30) indices, along with their linearly scaled counterparts (ap30 and ap60), are available in near real time from the GFZ website (https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hpo-index) with DOI (Matzka et al., 2022). Important properties of Hpo that are revealed by our initial analysis can be summarized as follows: The frequency distributions of the occurrence of Hp30 and Hp60 values are consistent with that of Kp at different phases of the solar cycle (Figures 1a–1i). Month-to-month variations of Hp30 and Hp60 are consistent with that of Kp (Figure 1k). The relationships between Hpo indices and Newell's solar wind coupling function, AE and PC indices are similar to those between Kp and these three quantities. Hp30 and Hp60 can capture temporal variation of Kp during strong geomagnetic storm events (Figure 3). Hp30 and Hp60 can reproduce short-term variation of geomagnetic activity within 3 hr associated with substorms (Figure 4). These results demonstrate that Hpo can be used as a higher time-resolution alternative to Kp. Indeed, there are already a few studies that utilized Hpo for its advantage over Kp. Yamazaki et al. (2021) used Hp30 to select quiet-time measurements of the geomagnetic field from Swarm satellites. The orbital period of a Swarm satellite is approximately 90 min, thus using Hp30, geomagnetic activity can be evaluated for every one third of the orbit, while there is only one Kp value for every two orbits. The high-cadence output of Hpo enables a more accurate selection of quiet-time data than the three-hourly Kp index. Bruinsma and Boniface (2021) used Hp60 to drive a recent version of the Drag Temperature Model, DTM-2020, which is a semi-empirical model of the Earth's thermosphere, developed for orbit determination and prediction of spacecraft and debris. They showed that the use of Hpo leads to the improvement of the model compared with the predecessor model DTM-2013 (Bruinsma, 2015) that is driven by Kp. Similarly, Hpo may be used for improving other geospace models driven by Kp. Recalibration and validation are recommended when Hpo is used as an input for existing models that are parameterized with Kp. |
2024.05.09 20:42 metalslug53 The state of interacting with other casual players has never been more miserable and I'm absolutely sick and tired of it.
Just returned from my LGS and I can't take this shit anymore. Since I don't currently hold any meaningful relationships in my personal life, I figured I'd rage about my issues to a bunch of online strangers to seek out validation of my feelings.
I have been a long-time frequent to my LGS. Everyone there knows who I am and respects me as a player due to my encyclopedic knowledge of this game, considering I've basically been playing since Revised. As the local pseudo-pro and unofficial Rank-7 Judge, people come to me ALL THE TIME for my insight into the rules of this game, which has placed me on a pretty high pedestal in that shop. I'm a pretty big deal in my local circle.
I will forever argue that the 60-card formats are the supreme way to play this game, but since nobody else has a six-digit collection in my area and I refuse to lower myself to plebeian status and play against people who proxy, and because nobody else has any sort of interest in the constructed formats anyways, I'm forced to play the inferior casual game mode that all the normies flock to: EDH. (I refuse to call it Commander. Call it by it's proper name, please.)
Due to my stock, I am able to piecemeal together practically any Commander deck I want on a whim. I don't really care much about the Rule 0 Discussion or hashing out power level discrepancies. If you can't keep up, that's your own damn fault. Invest more into the stock of the game or play your income level.
Anyways, I sat down at a table with my toolbox of decks sitting on the table next to me, just waiting for the thirsters to flock in and ask for games. When they eventually did (and one of them even had the gall to ask me to put my toolbox on the floor, the asshole), I took out my most expensive deck and began to shuffle. Immediately, I had to make sure that the others were playing PROPER Magic. They were taking out decks and beginning to shuffle when I told them proxies were NOT allowed at my table. They all smiled and shrugged. One of them even put his deck away and took out a different one. At least that one had some semblance of class.
I also made absolutely sure to go through the list of unmentionable cards that have powercrept their way into high-end tables. Poor card design from after my era of Magic is not okay either. Basically anything past 8th Edition and worth more than $5 could be stuffed. If it doesn't remind me of the Nephilim days, it isn't appropriate for me to see. Oh, and absolutely NONE of that Secret Lair bullshit. I play Magic the way GOD intended it... With MAGIC characters and MAGIC realms. It'll be a prudish day at a furry convention before I'm caught in a game watching Darth Vader deepthroat Applejack the Pony's hog.
Then I made sure to hash out the archetypes that weren't allowed to be played by any of these spergs. Mill? Fuck off with that. I want to DRAW my cards, thanks. Mass Land Destruction? Heh. You think I want my Revised Duals blasted to the Shadow Realm by some Cheap-ass, penny-sleeved common? Counterspells? Hard pass. I get to do my thing and you can't stop me. Group Hug? Fuck Group Hug! Fuck Group Hug with a rusty dick and a sandpaper condom. AND FUCK INFINITE COMBOS. I'LL KILL YOUR DOG IF YOU INFINITE ON ME.
In fact, fuck Blue completely. If I had it my way, this shop would implement my arbitrarily-balanced homebrew ban list that favors Green because Big Creatures = Big Dick Energy. But I digress.
So I explain to the pleebs all of the expectations of the game, and this one beta just keeps smiling at me. He takes out one of the original 2011 Commander Deck releases (Kaalia) and asks if this flies by my rules. If that's ALL he has, I GUESS I can lower my expectations a bit. The nerve. At least it wasn't Riku GAG
Anyways, the game begins and because I am much better at loading my opening hand than the others at the table, I get a colossal rocket of a start while they're all playing in tap lands turn 1. We're talking Fetch>Dual>Sol Ring>Signet>Worldly Tutor levels of God Hand. And these wet sandwiches are contempt playing Karoo lands and basics with no follow-up. And they didn't even gripe about how I was making five mana next turn! Fucking chodes.
As the game progresses, the table talk is all this sappy, accepting bullshit. They talked about how the atmosphere was so friendly and nice and how people at this store were so chill, open-minded, and inclusive. One player even asked the rest of us for our preferred pronouns because he didn't want to come across as offensive. What the hell happened to this game?!
But the worst part about it was that any time I made big plays to advance my board state, NONE OF THEM GROANED OR COMPLAINED. I couldn't believe it. I couldn't savor the satisfaction of preventing their plays or outpacing them, because they said, AND I QUOTE:
"I don't really care about how the game goes. I'm just here for the vibes, man."
Oh boy, if there's ONE THING I can't stand when I play MTG is when my opponents don't absolutely try-hard and get as mad as I do over a 30-year old card game. How absolutely ridiculous. WHY ARE YOU EVEN HERE IF YOU AREN'T GOING TO MAKE IT OBVIOUS TO EVERYONE AROUND YOU THAT THIS GAME IS YOUR WHOLE IDENTITY?!
I lost it. I had to pack up and leave. These players obviously didn't deserve to even share the room with me, let alone share the stack with me. If I couldn't cause salt, it was just a colossal waste of my time.
The nerve of people. The newer generations coming into this game are far too laid back and lax and don't get offended easily enough. They don't even complain to the shopkeeper about my body odor anymore! That had always been such easy gotcha points and they've even grown to look past the offense their noses feel!
I mean, who the hell plays this game because they ENJOY it? I play this game to turn cards sideways and get angry at things so I can rage about it on the internet from the safety of my studio apartment and go into debt paying for said overpriced cardboard.
Fucking incels.
tl;dr Don't be THAT GUY and be miserable like the rest of us when you play this game.
submitted by metalslug53 to EDH [link] [comments]
I have been a long-time frequent to my LGS. Everyone there knows who I am and respects me as a player due to my encyclopedic knowledge of this game, considering I've basically been playing since Revised. As the local pseudo-pro and unofficial Rank-7 Judge, people come to me ALL THE TIME for my insight into the rules of this game, which has placed me on a pretty high pedestal in that shop. I'm a pretty big deal in my local circle.
I will forever argue that the 60-card formats are the supreme way to play this game, but since nobody else has a six-digit collection in my area and I refuse to lower myself to plebeian status and play against people who proxy, and because nobody else has any sort of interest in the constructed formats anyways, I'm forced to play the inferior casual game mode that all the normies flock to: EDH. (I refuse to call it Commander. Call it by it's proper name, please.)
Due to my stock, I am able to piecemeal together practically any Commander deck I want on a whim. I don't really care much about the Rule 0 Discussion or hashing out power level discrepancies. If you can't keep up, that's your own damn fault. Invest more into the stock of the game or play your income level.
Anyways, I sat down at a table with my toolbox of decks sitting on the table next to me, just waiting for the thirsters to flock in and ask for games. When they eventually did (and one of them even had the gall to ask me to put my toolbox on the floor, the asshole), I took out my most expensive deck and began to shuffle. Immediately, I had to make sure that the others were playing PROPER Magic. They were taking out decks and beginning to shuffle when I told them proxies were NOT allowed at my table. They all smiled and shrugged. One of them even put his deck away and took out a different one. At least that one had some semblance of class.
I also made absolutely sure to go through the list of unmentionable cards that have powercrept their way into high-end tables. Poor card design from after my era of Magic is not okay either. Basically anything past 8th Edition and worth more than $5 could be stuffed. If it doesn't remind me of the Nephilim days, it isn't appropriate for me to see. Oh, and absolutely NONE of that Secret Lair bullshit. I play Magic the way GOD intended it... With MAGIC characters and MAGIC realms. It'll be a prudish day at a furry convention before I'm caught in a game watching Darth Vader deepthroat Applejack the Pony's hog.
Then I made sure to hash out the archetypes that weren't allowed to be played by any of these spergs. Mill? Fuck off with that. I want to DRAW my cards, thanks. Mass Land Destruction? Heh. You think I want my Revised Duals blasted to the Shadow Realm by some Cheap-ass, penny-sleeved common? Counterspells? Hard pass. I get to do my thing and you can't stop me. Group Hug? Fuck Group Hug! Fuck Group Hug with a rusty dick and a sandpaper condom. AND FUCK INFINITE COMBOS. I'LL KILL YOUR DOG IF YOU INFINITE ON ME.
In fact, fuck Blue completely. If I had it my way, this shop would implement my arbitrarily-balanced homebrew ban list that favors Green because Big Creatures = Big Dick Energy. But I digress.
So I explain to the pleebs all of the expectations of the game, and this one beta just keeps smiling at me. He takes out one of the original 2011 Commander Deck releases (Kaalia) and asks if this flies by my rules. If that's ALL he has, I GUESS I can lower my expectations a bit. The nerve. At least it wasn't Riku GAG
Anyways, the game begins and because I am much better at loading my opening hand than the others at the table, I get a colossal rocket of a start while they're all playing in tap lands turn 1. We're talking Fetch>Dual>Sol Ring>Signet>Worldly Tutor levels of God Hand. And these wet sandwiches are contempt playing Karoo lands and basics with no follow-up. And they didn't even gripe about how I was making five mana next turn! Fucking chodes.
As the game progresses, the table talk is all this sappy, accepting bullshit. They talked about how the atmosphere was so friendly and nice and how people at this store were so chill, open-minded, and inclusive. One player even asked the rest of us for our preferred pronouns because he didn't want to come across as offensive. What the hell happened to this game?!
But the worst part about it was that any time I made big plays to advance my board state, NONE OF THEM GROANED OR COMPLAINED. I couldn't believe it. I couldn't savor the satisfaction of preventing their plays or outpacing them, because they said, AND I QUOTE:
"I don't really care about how the game goes. I'm just here for the vibes, man."
Oh boy, if there's ONE THING I can't stand when I play MTG is when my opponents don't absolutely try-hard and get as mad as I do over a 30-year old card game. How absolutely ridiculous. WHY ARE YOU EVEN HERE IF YOU AREN'T GOING TO MAKE IT OBVIOUS TO EVERYONE AROUND YOU THAT THIS GAME IS YOUR WHOLE IDENTITY?!
I lost it. I had to pack up and leave. These players obviously didn't deserve to even share the room with me, let alone share the stack with me. If I couldn't cause salt, it was just a colossal waste of my time.
The nerve of people. The newer generations coming into this game are far too laid back and lax and don't get offended easily enough. They don't even complain to the shopkeeper about my body odor anymore! That had always been such easy gotcha points and they've even grown to look past the offense their noses feel!
I mean, who the hell plays this game because they ENJOY it? I play this game to turn cards sideways and get angry at things so I can rage about it on the internet from the safety of my studio apartment and go into debt paying for said overpriced cardboard.
Fucking incels.
tl;dr Don't be THAT GUY and be miserable like the rest of us when you play this game.
2024.05.09 15:15 NewPlayer4our How far do you power down?
Hey all,
Running into a small issue with my main pod and I'm trying to find the best way to handle this.
I've been playing with some of my friends lately, guys that started magic with me back in 2011 but have taken a large hiatus until this last year. I've been keeping up with Magic the entire time because I collect premiere sets, so I've always been buying and playing.
What we're running into is an issue with proxies and with staples. I proxy my decks. I understand the stigma and whatever, but I buy cards to collect and protect and I just want to play. I do try to keep cards I proxy to cards I own or if they are hyper specific to the deck I'm building but not overpowered.
This has lead to some issues as my friends who started again refuse to buy specific cards, only getting cards from cracking packs and from commander decks. They've said it's unfair and not fun to play against my decks since because I run things like fetchlands, [[Jeska's Will]], [[Farewell]], etc... I'm way to far ahead.
At first, I agree and I attempt to power down by building decks around commanders that are not super high level. Examples here:
https://www.moxfield.com/decks/Q1l9UM_vi0GEAyNnzTaKWA
https://www.moxfield.com/decks/fL_jIjGYw0Sa57rgN6eh6Q
Decks that still run powerful cards, but aren't the most powerful things out there. I still want to be able to play cards that are good and fun.
This was still a problem, so last night I pulled out a Mono-black deck I brewed that I tried to keep low power with just a few actual money cards:
https://www.moxfield.com/decks/Zf5qlR48vUmVjy97YLg8uQ
This was STILL a problem, as because it's aristocrats, it's a bit non-interactive. That's just my playstyle, I will not go into combat if I don't have too, so my decks usually lead to some form of combo because that's what I enjoy.
I will concede some cards are problematic and too powerful for the pod and we've had discussions about those specifically. Things like [[Jewled Lotus]] in my [[Roxanne, starfall savant]] deck being too fast for them to keep up, totally understandable.
But how far down do you go to appease those in your pod? I don't want to be the issue, but it feels like everytime I play, they actively do not have a good time playing with me. It's been weeks of me making new decks, taking out stronger cards, going down on colors and trying scrape the bottom of the barrel for commanders that aren't extremely powerful but can still offer and engaging and interesting game.
I'm just frustrated at this point and finding this middle ground has been tough, so I'm curious if anyone else has dealt with this.
submitted by NewPlayer4our to EDH [link] [comments]
Running into a small issue with my main pod and I'm trying to find the best way to handle this.
I've been playing with some of my friends lately, guys that started magic with me back in 2011 but have taken a large hiatus until this last year. I've been keeping up with Magic the entire time because I collect premiere sets, so I've always been buying and playing.
What we're running into is an issue with proxies and with staples. I proxy my decks. I understand the stigma and whatever, but I buy cards to collect and protect and I just want to play. I do try to keep cards I proxy to cards I own or if they are hyper specific to the deck I'm building but not overpowered.
This has lead to some issues as my friends who started again refuse to buy specific cards, only getting cards from cracking packs and from commander decks. They've said it's unfair and not fun to play against my decks since because I run things like fetchlands, [[Jeska's Will]], [[Farewell]], etc... I'm way to far ahead.
At first, I agree and I attempt to power down by building decks around commanders that are not super high level. Examples here:
https://www.moxfield.com/decks/Q1l9UM_vi0GEAyNnzTaKWA
https://www.moxfield.com/decks/fL_jIjGYw0Sa57rgN6eh6Q
Decks that still run powerful cards, but aren't the most powerful things out there. I still want to be able to play cards that are good and fun.
This was still a problem, so last night I pulled out a Mono-black deck I brewed that I tried to keep low power with just a few actual money cards:
https://www.moxfield.com/decks/Zf5qlR48vUmVjy97YLg8uQ
This was STILL a problem, as because it's aristocrats, it's a bit non-interactive. That's just my playstyle, I will not go into combat if I don't have too, so my decks usually lead to some form of combo because that's what I enjoy.
I will concede some cards are problematic and too powerful for the pod and we've had discussions about those specifically. Things like [[Jewled Lotus]] in my [[Roxanne, starfall savant]] deck being too fast for them to keep up, totally understandable.
But how far down do you go to appease those in your pod? I don't want to be the issue, but it feels like everytime I play, they actively do not have a good time playing with me. It's been weeks of me making new decks, taking out stronger cards, going down on colors and trying scrape the bottom of the barrel for commanders that aren't extremely powerful but can still offer and engaging and interesting game.
I'm just frustrated at this point and finding this middle ground has been tough, so I'm curious if anyone else has dealt with this.
2024.05.06 18:13 Lemmy-Historian How Elizabeth I made Mary I relive the traumas of Katherine of Aragon
The second part of Mary's and Elizabeth's story. I learned from last time: This is a draft! You will find some of the sources and the literature at the end (I was trained in Germany, we don't differentiate between primary and secondary sources but sources and literature):
I. Introduction
In the spring of 1554, Elizabeth Tudor was in grave danger. Her half-sister, Queen Mary, had imprisoned her in the Tower of London on suspicion of being involved in the Wyatt Rebellion. The insurrection was against the Queen's plan to marry the Spanish crown prince, Philip, who was a staunch Catholic. Elizabeth was forced to live in the same chambers where her mother, Anne Boleyn, had been held before her execution 18 years earlier.
According to Tracy Borman, the Queen's advisers had already written up Elizabeth’s death warrant. All Mary had to do was sign it. As she held the ink-soaked quill that could end her half-sister's life, her hand hovered over the document. However, she ultimately chose not to sign it.
On May 19, 1554, Elizabeth was released from the Tower and placed under house arrest in the old royal hunting mansion at Woodstock. Until then, Elizabeth did not know whether she was to be allowed to live or had to face execution. It wasn't until the anniversary of her mother's execution that her fate was revealed to her.
During her time at the Tower, Elizabeth learned two valuable lessons that would shape the rest of her life: She should never be replaceable, and she should avoid making decisions until they are unavoidable. These principles guided Elizabeth for the rest of her life.
II. Why Elizabeth was saved
Elizabeth had very few people in Mary's government who were on her side. Only William Baron Paget advocated for Anne Boleyn's daughter. On the other hand, Elizabeth had many enemies. Lord Chancellor Bishop Stephen Gardiner, Mary's cousin Emperor Charles V, and the imperial ambassador Simon Renard all believed that Elizabeth's execution was necessary to ensure the Queen's permanent hold on the throne. There were even rumors that Margaret Douglas, Mary's best friend and potential heir, had spoken in favor of Elizabeth's execution.
However, there was a lack of evidence to support such a decision. The government tried everything to find evidence, or at least to fabricate it. The insurgent leader Thomas Wyatt was at the center of these efforts. He had already been sentenced to death before Elizabeth arrived at the Tower. However, the execution had been postponed. Wyatt, who had initially supported Mary even against Lady Jane Grey at the beginning of her reign, was now being pushed to incriminate Elizabeth as much as possible. As a side note, it wasn't Wyatt's first time being involuntarily held at the Tower. During the reign of Edward VI, he had also been imprisoned there for a few days because he had drunkenly smashed windows.
Wyatt, however, refused to name Elizabeth as the head of the rebellion, only stating that she may have known about the plan. His co-conspirator, Sir James Croft, could say more. Wyatt instead heavily incriminated his co-conspirator, Edward Courtenay. He was the real head of the conspiracy.
Mary's interrogators capitulated: April 11, 1554, was designated as the day of Wyatt's execution. As a resident of the Tower, whose name is not known to us, reports in a private chronicle, there were two peculiarities: First, Wyatt asked to be allowed to speak with Courtenay, who had been imprisoned in the Tower since February 12. Second, his last words were to be interrupted.
Wyatt's request was granted. According to the source, he had to be carried to Courtenay, who was imprisoned in the tower above Traitor's Gate. This shows the massive torture he was most likely subjected to. The two men talked for about half an hour. Unfortunately, the exact content of the conversation has not been handed down.
However, Wyatt's last words give an idea about what was said: he not only withdrew his accusations against Elizabeth but also exonerated Courtenay. In doing so, he probably saved two lives. Henry Weston, who oversaw the execution of Wyatt, interrupted the condemned man, which was highly unusual. According to the tower resident, he spoke this sentence:
"Merke this, my masters, eh sayeth hat that which eh hathe showed to hte counsel ni wryting of ymlady Elizaleth and Courtney ys true."
In this way, he confirmed that Wyatt had not lied to protect his reputation in the public eye, which held Elizabeth in high esteem but secretly incriminated her. It's unclear how Mary's advisers responded. It was a remarkable parallel of history: Wyatt's father had been imprisoned in the wake of the allegations against Anne Boleyn on suspicion of having had an affair with the Queen. The only thing that saved him was his friendship with Thomas Cromwell. Weston's father, Francis, was less fortunate. He was beheaded on May 17, 1536. Now the sons of the two men faced each other – and Weston had to supervise the execution on behalf of the Queen.
Mary herself dealt with the fact that Wyatt had exonerated her half-sister in a surprising way: she confiscated Wyatt's estates because he was a convicted traitor. However, she provided his family with a small pension that allowed them to survive. Among Wyatt's descendants was Wallis Simpson, for whom King Edward VIII abdicated his throne. Wyatt himself was beheaded before being quartered. He thus escaped the worst part of his punishment.
Courtenay, who had betrayed the rebellion before it even started, was released from the Tower and exiled to Venice. Mary's government tried for four more weeks to find any incriminating material against the Queen's half-sister but to no avail. The public grew increasingly resentful of the continued imprisonment of the heir to the throne, especially after Wyatt, who had been visibly tortured, cleared her name. Additionally, Mary's judges informed her that her half-sister could not be found guilty under the current laws.
It is not clear what ultimately led to Elizabeth's release from the Tower and her house arrest in Oxfordshire. While some argue that it was due to the Queen's conscience, which emerged just in time, others point out that between 1554 and 1555, people from Elizabeth's household were repeatedly arrested on suspicion of treason. This suggests that the Queen continued to view her half-sister as a threat. Modern historians have described the Queen as "paranoid about Elizabeth.”
Another thesis uses the popularity of Anne Boleyn's daughter as an argument for why Mary spared Elizabeth's life. Even this justification is not entirely convincing: During the Wyatt Rebellion 20,000 Londoners had volunteered to fight for the Queen. She had just successfully crushed the uprising. It had not found the popular support that its leaders had hoped for.
Elizabeth was likely allowed to live for several reasons. The Queen saw the rebellion as an attack by Protestants on their religion, who were allegedly equipped with "a Spanish cloak to cover their pretended purpose," as she wrote in a letter. She couldn't imagine that Catholics could also be against her marriage to the heir to the Habsburg throne. The rise of English nationalism was not a relevant force in her eyes.
Elizabeth had never made any public comments regarding Mary's plans to get married. Even though she appeared to be a Catholic, attending Mass twice a day, she avoided speaking in support of the Catholic faith. She would often cough or clear her throat to excuse herself from speaking at sensitive points during Mass. Mary had been aware that her half-sister was only pretending to be a Catholic since December 1553. In fact, at that time, Mary had even accused Elizabeth of it.
Despite this, Anne Boleyn's daughter was still valuable to Mary as a symbol. The more Elizabeth was seen attending Mass, the less suitable she was as a leader of Protestantism. However, if Mary were to have her half-sister executed, Elizabeth would become a martyr. Therefore, it was more beneficial for Mary to keep Elizabeth alive and permanently convert her to Catholicism.
On top of that, her wedding to Philip was getting closer and closer. The wedding ceremony had already encountered major issues and difficulties. The Archbishop of Canterbury, Thomas Cranmer, was imprisoned for being a heretic. Typically, he would have been the one to conduct the wedding ceremony and crown Philip as the king. However, if Elizabeth remained imprisoned in the Tower during the wedding, it would cast a dark shadow over the connection. Elizabeth was still the heir to the throne. Her execution around the time of the wedding would have been disastrous.
To avoid any potential issues, Elizabeth had to disappear from the public eye. If she wanted to play an active role again, she would have to comply with the Queen's demands. This impression is evident in the sources available. Officially, Mary was done with her half-sister, and Elizabeth's name does not appear in the collection of Mary's State Papers for the rest of the Queen's life. In this situation Mary was a perfect blend of her parents, possessing Katherine's political acumen and Henry's stubbornness.
III. Elizabeth is under house arrest
Mary initially felt vindicated in her decision to keep Elizabeth under house arrest, as it seemed to work in her favor. While over 200 rebel leaders were executed, most ordinary prisoners were pardoned for a fine. This prevented any serious uprisings against Mary for the rest of her reign.
In addition to the emotional significance, Mary's marriage to Philip was also economically beneficial for England. Phillip brought 20 cartloads of American silver to the wedding, which helped to support the weak English economy. The Royal Mint was allowed to mint silver coins for Spain, which marked its first foreign order. Mary proved herself to be a capable ruler in economic matters.
During her reign as Queen of England, Mary made significant strides in modernizing the country, which her predecessors had failed to do. England still adhered to the rules of the late medieval economic system, despite its collapse in the second half of the 15th century. Mary caught up on the overdue reforms, which would benefit her successor for decades to come.
In September 1554, Mary received good news as she gained weight, and her menstruation stopped, leading her doctors and court attendants to believe that she was pregnant. The Queen herself also experienced nausea, which further convinced everyone of her pregnancy. The imperial ambassador even reported back home that there was no doubt that the Queen was carrying a child.
Mary felt empowered and began to take violent action against the Protestants in her kingdom. Just a month after announcing her miraculous pregnancy, she had Bishops Nicholas Ridley and Hugh Latimer burned. Thomas Cranmer, whom she hated, was in prison awaiting his indictment as a heretic.
According to Mary's wishes, Cardinal Reginald Pole was to play a decisive role in this. Her close confidant returned on 23 November 1554 from his exile and assumed the position of Archbishop of Canterbury. Mary's great goal now was for her heir to be born in an England where the Pope would be the head of the Church again.
Parliament supported Mary on this issue. In January 1555, the Second Act of Repeal was passed, which made England a Catholic kingdom again. The law also removed the legal hurdle to prosecute Protestants more severely. Corresponding actions began as early as February 1555.
The unpopular burnings earned the Queen the nickname "Bloody Mary". Nearly 300 of their subjects were to die at the stake. However, historians have debated whether her reputation for cruelty is accurate. The book "Book of Martyrs" by John Foxe, published in 1563, was instrumental in creating the image of Bloody Mary. As a Protestant, Foxe had a strong religious interest in portraying Mary as a monstrous and frightening figure.
Mary viewed the use of burnings as a necessary means to deter Protestants from their faith and was surprised by the number of Protestants who chose death by fire over converting to Catholicism. However, she believed that the most important aspect of her efforts was ensuring that no new Protestant clerics could emerge, hence she strictly monitored seminaries and universities.
During Elizabeth's time of house arrest, she was under the guard of Sir John Williams, who treated her kindly. It is assumed that Elizabeth acted with extreme caution during this time so as not to upset her half-sister. As the announcement of Mary's pregnancy meant that Elizabeth would lose her position in the line of succession, she had to be careful not to do anything that could jeopardize her safety.
IV. Mary's First False Pregnancy and the Fatal Consequences
Mary found herself in a situation similar to her mother's, towards the end of Katherine and Henry's marriage, during the spring of 1555. Mary had a responsibility to produce an heir, as failure to do so would put her position and Catholicism in England at risk. At the time, Mary was fully aware of the potential consequences if Elizabeth was to come to power.
However, it is unclear whether or not the Queen recognized the parallel between her mother's life and her own, or if Mary was trying to break the curse that had plagued her since Anne entered her life. Regardless, Mary followed the customary practice of withdrawing to Hampton Court in the spring of 1555 for the birth of her child. She ordered Elizabeth to be present when her heir to the throne entered the world.
If you want to, you can interpret this order as a gesture of reconciliation between siblings, which must have taken place in 1555, at least on the surface. However, I find it difficult to interpret it as anything other than an attempt to humiliate Elizabeth. The Queen, for instance, stated that the Spanish king, Philip, should be regent for the child, not her half-sister, should she die in childbirth.
As we all know, events took a different turn. The calculated due date came and went, and it was not until July that the Queen resigned amid mocking laughter from the political public. Her abdominal swelling had subsided. The Venetian ambassador, Giovanni Michieli, had recently predicted that the pregnancy would end “in wind”. Philip, much to the Queen's sadness, returned to the mainland just a month later. Most people saw the false pregnancy and Philip's departure as a sign that the Queen would never be able to have children.
Mary was likely struggling with depression during that time. She believed that the events that occurred were "God's punishment" for tolerating heretics in her kingdom. As a result, she took even harsher action against them. One of her most prominent victims was Cranmer, who had renounced Protestantism for fear of being burned at the stake and turned back to Catholicism. Although it was customary for him to be pardoned, Mary did not follow this tradition.
Cranmer was forced to read out his retraction in public shortly before his burning in October 1556. According to reports, he first put the hand into the fire with which he had signed the document by which he turned away from Protestantism. Historians agree that it was primarily an act of personal revenge on the part of the Queen, as Cranmer had annulled her parents' marriage.
V. Philip and Elizabeth
Elizabeth might even have become a threat to Mary’s marriage – at least in the eyes of the monarch. Despite Philip's constant search for new lovers on the continent, there is little doubt that the Queen was truly in love with him. For example, Michieli reported she was "extraordinarily in love."
Philip, however, had already discovered while he was still in England that Elizabeth was, let’s say, of marriageable age. According to Michieli, the Habsburg prince had considered marrying the Queen‘s half-sister in case Mary died giving birth. However, there is some disagreement about how serious these considerations were. In a letter to his brother-in-law Maximilian, Philip expressed doubts about whether Mary was pregnant.
Following the false pregnancy, Philip aimed to establish a positive relationship with Elizabeth, most likely having already supported her while she was under house arrest. Mary’s half-sister was pleased to accept the king's friendship. As per J. E. Neale, she made every effort to integrate herself into Philip's circle of Spanish friends at court.
In October 1555, Elizabeth was permitted to leave Mary's court and return to her household, but it's uncertain whether it was a sign of Queen Mary's confidence in her half-sister. It's more likely that Mary couldn't tolerate Elizabeth's presence anymore. At this point, Mary began focusing on a topic she had never been enthusiastic about: finding a suitable husband for Elizabeth.
Philip advocated for Emmanuel Philibert, Duke of Savoy, and with good reason. Not only would he ensure a Catholic succession, but he was also Philip's trusted proxy in England. After Mary's death, Philibert would be a suitable puppet. In December 1553, Elizabeth had also agreed to have her name linked with Philibert's. This option was more favorable than making Mary, Queen of Scots the heir, even so she was catholic. Mary, promised to the French Dauphin, was too close to the Habsburgs' greatest enemies.
Elizabeth, however, knew that time was on her side. She was safe as heir to the throne after the disaster of the false pregnancy. Even for the Spaniards she was considered a better alternative than her Scottish great-cousin. She refused all marriage requests. Philip's four-month visit to England, beginning in March 1557, was primarily intended to persuade Elizabeth to change her mind. Mary must have been hurt significantly as she had been urging her husband to come back for a long time.
It seems improbable that Parliament would have approved of such a marriage. Consequently, it gradually distanced itself from Mary. In December 1555, the Queen attempted to seize the assets of 100 Protestants in exile, but her request was denied.
Later, Philip reconsidered the idea of marrying Elizabeth himself. After she ascended the throne, he proposed a corresponding match, but the new English monarch declined the offer.
VI. Mary joins Philip's war against France and becomes an enemy of the Pope
Philip became King of Spain in 1556. Mary, as his wife, thus became Queen of Spain. The Habsburg, now finally in power, wanted to eliminate Protestantism by all means. War was included. And that's what happened – but against Catholic France.
France had done Philip the great favor of attacking the Spaniards. Mary rushed to her husband's aid and joined the war. Together, they inflicted a heavy defeat on the French at the Battle of Saint-Quentin in August 1557. But the fortunes of the war turned against the English: Calais, the last English mainland base, was lost in January 1558.
Mary is said to have reacted to this message with the following sentence:
"When I am dead and opened, you shall find Calais engraved on my heart".
Pope Paul IV raged over the war. He needed the French to defend him against the Habsburgs in northern Italy. England's participation had ensured that he could hardly expect any significant support. He therefore demanded the return of Pole to Rome in order to appoint a new Archbishop of Canterbury himself who would bring the Queen under control. Mary refused, going against the authority on which she had hitherto guided all her actions.
Later on, this turned out to be helpful, albeit in a cynical way, for Elizabeth. The Pope had spoken out against Anne Boleyn's daughter inheriting Mary's throne. However, the relationship with the English Catholics had become so strained that this was no longer relevant. It was clear that the future of England lay in Elizabeth, and with that, it was expected that Protestantism would return.
Mary still hoped to prevent this from happening. She believed she was pregnant again in 1557. However, this time, there were no preparations for a birth, apart from the fact that she made her will in the spring of 1558. It is tragic to read this from today's perspective:
"Fyrste, whereas I the said Quene have with the good contentment and pleasure of my said most dere belov'd Lorde and husbande the Kyng's Majesty devis'd & made my said last will and testament, beryng date the 30th day of Marche last past, and by the same, for that as I then thowght myself to be with childe did devise and dispose the Imperiall Crowne of this Realme of Englond and the Crowne of Ireland, with my title to France and all the dependances thereof, and all other honours, Castells, Fortresses, Prerogatives and hereditaments, of what nature, kynde or qualitie soever they be, belongyng to this crowne, unto the heires, Issewe and frewte of my body begotten, & the government, order, and rewle of the said heire and Issewe I recommended unto my said most dere Lord and husband duryng the mynoryte of the said heire, accordynge to the lawes of this Realme in that case provided."
"Thinking myself to be with child in lawful marriage between my said dearly beloved husband and Lord, altho' I be at this present (thankes be unto Almighty God) otherwise in good helthe, yet foreseeing the great danger which by Godd's ordynance remaine to all whomen in ther travel of children, have thought good, both for discharge of my conscience and continewance of good order within my Realmes and domynions to declare my last will and testament"
Mary believed she was pregnant and in good health, and even suggested once more her husband be named as regent for the child. This was unrealistic as England had suffered significant losses in the war, while Habsburg had not. The Spanish king was more unpopular than ever. From 1555 to 1558, Mary's kingdom struggled with severe crop failures, leading to hunger and a severe influenza epidemic in 1558. One of Mary's ladies-in-waiting, Jane Dormer, fell ill but later recovered.
The Queen herself may have also fallen sick. When Mary returned to London at the end of August 1558 after her fake pregnancy, she asked Dormer how she was doing. Dormer replied with "reasonably well", to which Mary said, "So am not I". She then retired to her chambers and never left them again.
VII. Battle for the Crown: Mary Must Accept Elizabeth
Mary's health was deteriorating day by day and she was having fever dreams frequently. According to Dormer's later reports, Mary would sometimes wake up and recount seeing small children playing angelically beside her in her sleep. The Queen used these stories to console her close ones by reminding them that whatever happens, God has allowed it.
However, Mary's will posed a problem as it did not name any heir, except a child that was not born. This made her last will not only impractical but also went against the current law of succession. To resolve this, Mary agreed to add a new passage to her will on October 28, 1558:
"Yf yt shall please Almighty God to call me to his mercye owte of this transytory lyfe without issewe and heire of my bodye lawfully begotten, Then I most instantly desire et per viscera misericordiae Dei, requyre my next heire & Successour, by the Laws and Statutes of this Realme, not only to permytt and suffer the executors of my said Testament and last will and the Survivours of them to perform the same."
Elizabeth was only confirmed by the insertion "by the Laws and Statutes of this Realme". However, this was still not enough as Elizabeth was not officially named despite actively preparing for her reign that very same month. Due to this reason, Mary was pushed further.
The Queen finally sent Dormer to her half-sister with three conditions, which she had to meet in order to be allowed to succeed her:
Mary passed away between 5:00 and 6:00 in the morning on November 17, 1558. Her good friend Reginald Pole survived her by just twelve hours. The diplomat Nicholas Throckmorton was tasked with informing Elizabeth of Mary's death. Six hours after Mary's death, Throckmorton proclaimed Elizabeth as the new Queen. It was then that the coronation ring was brought to Elizabeth, which was extensively checked for authenticity by her ladies-in-waiting.
Mary's funeral was held on December 13, 1558, and her husband was not present. In a letter to his sister Joan, Philip expressed "reasonable regret" over her death. However, there was a scandal during the funeral when Winchester's Bishop John White gave an obituary for Mary and expressed doubts about Elizabeth's abilities as Queen. As a result, Elizabeth had him arrested a day later. With Mary's death and Elizabeth's ascension to the throne, England's generational traumas of Katherine and Anne finally came to an end. Although there were others to follow, such as the "Great Plot" to assassinate Elizabeth I and Mary, Queen of Scots. But we will not delve into them today.
Examples for literature and sources used for this text (That’s far from being all. I tried to pick those
you can check online yourself for this list):
Borman, T. (2023). Anne Boleyn & Elizabeth I.
Edwards, J. (2007). Mary I: England’s Catholic Queen.
Edwards, J. (2018). Mary I: The Daughter of Time. https://www.amazon.de/Mary-Penguin-Monarchs-Daughter-Time/dp/0141988681
Froude, J. A. (2023). The Divorce of Catherine of Aragon
The Story as Told by the Imperial Ambassadors Resident at the Court of Henry VIII.
Lee, S. (1900). Wyatt, Thomas. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Dictionary_of_National_Biography,_1885-1900/Wyatt,_Thomas_(1521%3F-1554))
Lemon, R (1856). Calendar of State Papers, Domestic Series, of the Reigns of Edward VI., Mary, Elizabeth and James I, 1547-1625 Preserved in the Stat Paper Department of Her Majesty's Public Record Office. https://www.google.de/books/edition/Calendar_of_State_Papers_Domestic_Series/NvsUAAAAQAAJ?hl=de&gbpv=1&dq=state+papers+domestic+mary+I&printsec=frontcover
Loades, D. (2016). Elizabeth I: A Life.
Loades, D. (2011). Mary Tudor.
Mayer, T. F. (2000). Reginald Pole – Prince & Prophet. https://www.google.de/books/edition/Reginald_Pole/OqaBq2QGrFEC?hl=de&gbpv=1&dq=reginald+pole&printsec=frontcover
Neale, J. E. (1934). Queen Elizabeth. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.208607/mode/2up
Nichols, J. G. (editor) (1850). The chronicle of Queen Jane, and of two years of Queen Mary, and especially of the rebellion of Sir Thomas Wyat / Written by a resident in the Tower of London. https://books.google.de/books?id=-cwyHxW4TwEC&printsec=frontcover&hl=de&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false
Whitelock, A. (2016). Mary Tudor: England’s First Queen.
submitted by Lemmy-Historian to Tudorhistory [link] [comments]
I. Introduction
In the spring of 1554, Elizabeth Tudor was in grave danger. Her half-sister, Queen Mary, had imprisoned her in the Tower of London on suspicion of being involved in the Wyatt Rebellion. The insurrection was against the Queen's plan to marry the Spanish crown prince, Philip, who was a staunch Catholic. Elizabeth was forced to live in the same chambers where her mother, Anne Boleyn, had been held before her execution 18 years earlier.
According to Tracy Borman, the Queen's advisers had already written up Elizabeth’s death warrant. All Mary had to do was sign it. As she held the ink-soaked quill that could end her half-sister's life, her hand hovered over the document. However, she ultimately chose not to sign it.
On May 19, 1554, Elizabeth was released from the Tower and placed under house arrest in the old royal hunting mansion at Woodstock. Until then, Elizabeth did not know whether she was to be allowed to live or had to face execution. It wasn't until the anniversary of her mother's execution that her fate was revealed to her.
During her time at the Tower, Elizabeth learned two valuable lessons that would shape the rest of her life: She should never be replaceable, and she should avoid making decisions until they are unavoidable. These principles guided Elizabeth for the rest of her life.
II. Why Elizabeth was saved
Elizabeth had very few people in Mary's government who were on her side. Only William Baron Paget advocated for Anne Boleyn's daughter. On the other hand, Elizabeth had many enemies. Lord Chancellor Bishop Stephen Gardiner, Mary's cousin Emperor Charles V, and the imperial ambassador Simon Renard all believed that Elizabeth's execution was necessary to ensure the Queen's permanent hold on the throne. There were even rumors that Margaret Douglas, Mary's best friend and potential heir, had spoken in favor of Elizabeth's execution.
However, there was a lack of evidence to support such a decision. The government tried everything to find evidence, or at least to fabricate it. The insurgent leader Thomas Wyatt was at the center of these efforts. He had already been sentenced to death before Elizabeth arrived at the Tower. However, the execution had been postponed. Wyatt, who had initially supported Mary even against Lady Jane Grey at the beginning of her reign, was now being pushed to incriminate Elizabeth as much as possible. As a side note, it wasn't Wyatt's first time being involuntarily held at the Tower. During the reign of Edward VI, he had also been imprisoned there for a few days because he had drunkenly smashed windows.
Wyatt, however, refused to name Elizabeth as the head of the rebellion, only stating that she may have known about the plan. His co-conspirator, Sir James Croft, could say more. Wyatt instead heavily incriminated his co-conspirator, Edward Courtenay. He was the real head of the conspiracy.
Mary's interrogators capitulated: April 11, 1554, was designated as the day of Wyatt's execution. As a resident of the Tower, whose name is not known to us, reports in a private chronicle, there were two peculiarities: First, Wyatt asked to be allowed to speak with Courtenay, who had been imprisoned in the Tower since February 12. Second, his last words were to be interrupted.
Wyatt's request was granted. According to the source, he had to be carried to Courtenay, who was imprisoned in the tower above Traitor's Gate. This shows the massive torture he was most likely subjected to. The two men talked for about half an hour. Unfortunately, the exact content of the conversation has not been handed down.
However, Wyatt's last words give an idea about what was said: he not only withdrew his accusations against Elizabeth but also exonerated Courtenay. In doing so, he probably saved two lives. Henry Weston, who oversaw the execution of Wyatt, interrupted the condemned man, which was highly unusual. According to the tower resident, he spoke this sentence:
"Merke this, my masters, eh sayeth hat that which eh hathe showed to hte counsel ni wryting of ymlady Elizaleth and Courtney ys true."
In this way, he confirmed that Wyatt had not lied to protect his reputation in the public eye, which held Elizabeth in high esteem but secretly incriminated her. It's unclear how Mary's advisers responded. It was a remarkable parallel of history: Wyatt's father had been imprisoned in the wake of the allegations against Anne Boleyn on suspicion of having had an affair with the Queen. The only thing that saved him was his friendship with Thomas Cromwell. Weston's father, Francis, was less fortunate. He was beheaded on May 17, 1536. Now the sons of the two men faced each other – and Weston had to supervise the execution on behalf of the Queen.
Mary herself dealt with the fact that Wyatt had exonerated her half-sister in a surprising way: she confiscated Wyatt's estates because he was a convicted traitor. However, she provided his family with a small pension that allowed them to survive. Among Wyatt's descendants was Wallis Simpson, for whom King Edward VIII abdicated his throne. Wyatt himself was beheaded before being quartered. He thus escaped the worst part of his punishment.
Courtenay, who had betrayed the rebellion before it even started, was released from the Tower and exiled to Venice. Mary's government tried for four more weeks to find any incriminating material against the Queen's half-sister but to no avail. The public grew increasingly resentful of the continued imprisonment of the heir to the throne, especially after Wyatt, who had been visibly tortured, cleared her name. Additionally, Mary's judges informed her that her half-sister could not be found guilty under the current laws.
It is not clear what ultimately led to Elizabeth's release from the Tower and her house arrest in Oxfordshire. While some argue that it was due to the Queen's conscience, which emerged just in time, others point out that between 1554 and 1555, people from Elizabeth's household were repeatedly arrested on suspicion of treason. This suggests that the Queen continued to view her half-sister as a threat. Modern historians have described the Queen as "paranoid about Elizabeth.”
Another thesis uses the popularity of Anne Boleyn's daughter as an argument for why Mary spared Elizabeth's life. Even this justification is not entirely convincing: During the Wyatt Rebellion 20,000 Londoners had volunteered to fight for the Queen. She had just successfully crushed the uprising. It had not found the popular support that its leaders had hoped for.
Elizabeth was likely allowed to live for several reasons. The Queen saw the rebellion as an attack by Protestants on their religion, who were allegedly equipped with "a Spanish cloak to cover their pretended purpose," as she wrote in a letter. She couldn't imagine that Catholics could also be against her marriage to the heir to the Habsburg throne. The rise of English nationalism was not a relevant force in her eyes.
Elizabeth had never made any public comments regarding Mary's plans to get married. Even though she appeared to be a Catholic, attending Mass twice a day, she avoided speaking in support of the Catholic faith. She would often cough or clear her throat to excuse herself from speaking at sensitive points during Mass. Mary had been aware that her half-sister was only pretending to be a Catholic since December 1553. In fact, at that time, Mary had even accused Elizabeth of it.
Despite this, Anne Boleyn's daughter was still valuable to Mary as a symbol. The more Elizabeth was seen attending Mass, the less suitable she was as a leader of Protestantism. However, if Mary were to have her half-sister executed, Elizabeth would become a martyr. Therefore, it was more beneficial for Mary to keep Elizabeth alive and permanently convert her to Catholicism.
On top of that, her wedding to Philip was getting closer and closer. The wedding ceremony had already encountered major issues and difficulties. The Archbishop of Canterbury, Thomas Cranmer, was imprisoned for being a heretic. Typically, he would have been the one to conduct the wedding ceremony and crown Philip as the king. However, if Elizabeth remained imprisoned in the Tower during the wedding, it would cast a dark shadow over the connection. Elizabeth was still the heir to the throne. Her execution around the time of the wedding would have been disastrous.
To avoid any potential issues, Elizabeth had to disappear from the public eye. If she wanted to play an active role again, she would have to comply with the Queen's demands. This impression is evident in the sources available. Officially, Mary was done with her half-sister, and Elizabeth's name does not appear in the collection of Mary's State Papers for the rest of the Queen's life. In this situation Mary was a perfect blend of her parents, possessing Katherine's political acumen and Henry's stubbornness.
III. Elizabeth is under house arrest
Mary initially felt vindicated in her decision to keep Elizabeth under house arrest, as it seemed to work in her favor. While over 200 rebel leaders were executed, most ordinary prisoners were pardoned for a fine. This prevented any serious uprisings against Mary for the rest of her reign.
In addition to the emotional significance, Mary's marriage to Philip was also economically beneficial for England. Phillip brought 20 cartloads of American silver to the wedding, which helped to support the weak English economy. The Royal Mint was allowed to mint silver coins for Spain, which marked its first foreign order. Mary proved herself to be a capable ruler in economic matters.
During her reign as Queen of England, Mary made significant strides in modernizing the country, which her predecessors had failed to do. England still adhered to the rules of the late medieval economic system, despite its collapse in the second half of the 15th century. Mary caught up on the overdue reforms, which would benefit her successor for decades to come.
In September 1554, Mary received good news as she gained weight, and her menstruation stopped, leading her doctors and court attendants to believe that she was pregnant. The Queen herself also experienced nausea, which further convinced everyone of her pregnancy. The imperial ambassador even reported back home that there was no doubt that the Queen was carrying a child.
Mary felt empowered and began to take violent action against the Protestants in her kingdom. Just a month after announcing her miraculous pregnancy, she had Bishops Nicholas Ridley and Hugh Latimer burned. Thomas Cranmer, whom she hated, was in prison awaiting his indictment as a heretic.
According to Mary's wishes, Cardinal Reginald Pole was to play a decisive role in this. Her close confidant returned on 23 November 1554 from his exile and assumed the position of Archbishop of Canterbury. Mary's great goal now was for her heir to be born in an England where the Pope would be the head of the Church again.
Parliament supported Mary on this issue. In January 1555, the Second Act of Repeal was passed, which made England a Catholic kingdom again. The law also removed the legal hurdle to prosecute Protestants more severely. Corresponding actions began as early as February 1555.
The unpopular burnings earned the Queen the nickname "Bloody Mary". Nearly 300 of their subjects were to die at the stake. However, historians have debated whether her reputation for cruelty is accurate. The book "Book of Martyrs" by John Foxe, published in 1563, was instrumental in creating the image of Bloody Mary. As a Protestant, Foxe had a strong religious interest in portraying Mary as a monstrous and frightening figure.
Mary viewed the use of burnings as a necessary means to deter Protestants from their faith and was surprised by the number of Protestants who chose death by fire over converting to Catholicism. However, she believed that the most important aspect of her efforts was ensuring that no new Protestant clerics could emerge, hence she strictly monitored seminaries and universities.
During Elizabeth's time of house arrest, she was under the guard of Sir John Williams, who treated her kindly. It is assumed that Elizabeth acted with extreme caution during this time so as not to upset her half-sister. As the announcement of Mary's pregnancy meant that Elizabeth would lose her position in the line of succession, she had to be careful not to do anything that could jeopardize her safety.
IV. Mary's First False Pregnancy and the Fatal Consequences
Mary found herself in a situation similar to her mother's, towards the end of Katherine and Henry's marriage, during the spring of 1555. Mary had a responsibility to produce an heir, as failure to do so would put her position and Catholicism in England at risk. At the time, Mary was fully aware of the potential consequences if Elizabeth was to come to power.
However, it is unclear whether or not the Queen recognized the parallel between her mother's life and her own, or if Mary was trying to break the curse that had plagued her since Anne entered her life. Regardless, Mary followed the customary practice of withdrawing to Hampton Court in the spring of 1555 for the birth of her child. She ordered Elizabeth to be present when her heir to the throne entered the world.
If you want to, you can interpret this order as a gesture of reconciliation between siblings, which must have taken place in 1555, at least on the surface. However, I find it difficult to interpret it as anything other than an attempt to humiliate Elizabeth. The Queen, for instance, stated that the Spanish king, Philip, should be regent for the child, not her half-sister, should she die in childbirth.
As we all know, events took a different turn. The calculated due date came and went, and it was not until July that the Queen resigned amid mocking laughter from the political public. Her abdominal swelling had subsided. The Venetian ambassador, Giovanni Michieli, had recently predicted that the pregnancy would end “in wind”. Philip, much to the Queen's sadness, returned to the mainland just a month later. Most people saw the false pregnancy and Philip's departure as a sign that the Queen would never be able to have children.
Mary was likely struggling with depression during that time. She believed that the events that occurred were "God's punishment" for tolerating heretics in her kingdom. As a result, she took even harsher action against them. One of her most prominent victims was Cranmer, who had renounced Protestantism for fear of being burned at the stake and turned back to Catholicism. Although it was customary for him to be pardoned, Mary did not follow this tradition.
Cranmer was forced to read out his retraction in public shortly before his burning in October 1556. According to reports, he first put the hand into the fire with which he had signed the document by which he turned away from Protestantism. Historians agree that it was primarily an act of personal revenge on the part of the Queen, as Cranmer had annulled her parents' marriage.
V. Philip and Elizabeth
Elizabeth might even have become a threat to Mary’s marriage – at least in the eyes of the monarch. Despite Philip's constant search for new lovers on the continent, there is little doubt that the Queen was truly in love with him. For example, Michieli reported she was "extraordinarily in love."
Philip, however, had already discovered while he was still in England that Elizabeth was, let’s say, of marriageable age. According to Michieli, the Habsburg prince had considered marrying the Queen‘s half-sister in case Mary died giving birth. However, there is some disagreement about how serious these considerations were. In a letter to his brother-in-law Maximilian, Philip expressed doubts about whether Mary was pregnant.
Following the false pregnancy, Philip aimed to establish a positive relationship with Elizabeth, most likely having already supported her while she was under house arrest. Mary’s half-sister was pleased to accept the king's friendship. As per J. E. Neale, she made every effort to integrate herself into Philip's circle of Spanish friends at court.
In October 1555, Elizabeth was permitted to leave Mary's court and return to her household, but it's uncertain whether it was a sign of Queen Mary's confidence in her half-sister. It's more likely that Mary couldn't tolerate Elizabeth's presence anymore. At this point, Mary began focusing on a topic she had never been enthusiastic about: finding a suitable husband for Elizabeth.
Philip advocated for Emmanuel Philibert, Duke of Savoy, and with good reason. Not only would he ensure a Catholic succession, but he was also Philip's trusted proxy in England. After Mary's death, Philibert would be a suitable puppet. In December 1553, Elizabeth had also agreed to have her name linked with Philibert's. This option was more favorable than making Mary, Queen of Scots the heir, even so she was catholic. Mary, promised to the French Dauphin, was too close to the Habsburgs' greatest enemies.
Elizabeth, however, knew that time was on her side. She was safe as heir to the throne after the disaster of the false pregnancy. Even for the Spaniards she was considered a better alternative than her Scottish great-cousin. She refused all marriage requests. Philip's four-month visit to England, beginning in March 1557, was primarily intended to persuade Elizabeth to change her mind. Mary must have been hurt significantly as she had been urging her husband to come back for a long time.
It seems improbable that Parliament would have approved of such a marriage. Consequently, it gradually distanced itself from Mary. In December 1555, the Queen attempted to seize the assets of 100 Protestants in exile, but her request was denied.
Later, Philip reconsidered the idea of marrying Elizabeth himself. After she ascended the throne, he proposed a corresponding match, but the new English monarch declined the offer.
VI. Mary joins Philip's war against France and becomes an enemy of the Pope
Philip became King of Spain in 1556. Mary, as his wife, thus became Queen of Spain. The Habsburg, now finally in power, wanted to eliminate Protestantism by all means. War was included. And that's what happened – but against Catholic France.
France had done Philip the great favor of attacking the Spaniards. Mary rushed to her husband's aid and joined the war. Together, they inflicted a heavy defeat on the French at the Battle of Saint-Quentin in August 1557. But the fortunes of the war turned against the English: Calais, the last English mainland base, was lost in January 1558.
Mary is said to have reacted to this message with the following sentence:
"When I am dead and opened, you shall find Calais engraved on my heart".
Pope Paul IV raged over the war. He needed the French to defend him against the Habsburgs in northern Italy. England's participation had ensured that he could hardly expect any significant support. He therefore demanded the return of Pole to Rome in order to appoint a new Archbishop of Canterbury himself who would bring the Queen under control. Mary refused, going against the authority on which she had hitherto guided all her actions.
Later on, this turned out to be helpful, albeit in a cynical way, for Elizabeth. The Pope had spoken out against Anne Boleyn's daughter inheriting Mary's throne. However, the relationship with the English Catholics had become so strained that this was no longer relevant. It was clear that the future of England lay in Elizabeth, and with that, it was expected that Protestantism would return.
Mary still hoped to prevent this from happening. She believed she was pregnant again in 1557. However, this time, there were no preparations for a birth, apart from the fact that she made her will in the spring of 1558. It is tragic to read this from today's perspective:
"Fyrste, whereas I the said Quene have with the good contentment and pleasure of my said most dere belov'd Lorde and husbande the Kyng's Majesty devis'd & made my said last will and testament, beryng date the 30th day of Marche last past, and by the same, for that as I then thowght myself to be with childe did devise and dispose the Imperiall Crowne of this Realme of Englond and the Crowne of Ireland, with my title to France and all the dependances thereof, and all other honours, Castells, Fortresses, Prerogatives and hereditaments, of what nature, kynde or qualitie soever they be, belongyng to this crowne, unto the heires, Issewe and frewte of my body begotten, & the government, order, and rewle of the said heire and Issewe I recommended unto my said most dere Lord and husband duryng the mynoryte of the said heire, accordynge to the lawes of this Realme in that case provided."
"Thinking myself to be with child in lawful marriage between my said dearly beloved husband and Lord, altho' I be at this present (thankes be unto Almighty God) otherwise in good helthe, yet foreseeing the great danger which by Godd's ordynance remaine to all whomen in ther travel of children, have thought good, both for discharge of my conscience and continewance of good order within my Realmes and domynions to declare my last will and testament"
Mary believed she was pregnant and in good health, and even suggested once more her husband be named as regent for the child. This was unrealistic as England had suffered significant losses in the war, while Habsburg had not. The Spanish king was more unpopular than ever. From 1555 to 1558, Mary's kingdom struggled with severe crop failures, leading to hunger and a severe influenza epidemic in 1558. One of Mary's ladies-in-waiting, Jane Dormer, fell ill but later recovered.
The Queen herself may have also fallen sick. When Mary returned to London at the end of August 1558 after her fake pregnancy, she asked Dormer how she was doing. Dormer replied with "reasonably well", to which Mary said, "So am not I". She then retired to her chambers and never left them again.
VII. Battle for the Crown: Mary Must Accept Elizabeth
Mary's health was deteriorating day by day and she was having fever dreams frequently. According to Dormer's later reports, Mary would sometimes wake up and recount seeing small children playing angelically beside her in her sleep. The Queen used these stories to console her close ones by reminding them that whatever happens, God has allowed it.
However, Mary's will posed a problem as it did not name any heir, except a child that was not born. This made her last will not only impractical but also went against the current law of succession. To resolve this, Mary agreed to add a new passage to her will on October 28, 1558:
"Yf yt shall please Almighty God to call me to his mercye owte of this transytory lyfe without issewe and heire of my bodye lawfully begotten, Then I most instantly desire et per viscera misericordiae Dei, requyre my next heire & Successour, by the Laws and Statutes of this Realme, not only to permytt and suffer the executors of my said Testament and last will and the Survivours of them to perform the same."
Elizabeth was only confirmed by the insertion "by the Laws and Statutes of this Realme". However, this was still not enough as Elizabeth was not officially named despite actively preparing for her reign that very same month. Due to this reason, Mary was pushed further.
The Queen finally sent Dormer to her half-sister with three conditions, which she had to meet in order to be allowed to succeed her:
- It is important for England to remain Catholic.
- Queen Elizabeth should treat Mary's servants well.
- Queen Elizabeth is responsible for paying the Crown's outstanding debts.
Mary passed away between 5:00 and 6:00 in the morning on November 17, 1558. Her good friend Reginald Pole survived her by just twelve hours. The diplomat Nicholas Throckmorton was tasked with informing Elizabeth of Mary's death. Six hours after Mary's death, Throckmorton proclaimed Elizabeth as the new Queen. It was then that the coronation ring was brought to Elizabeth, which was extensively checked for authenticity by her ladies-in-waiting.
Mary's funeral was held on December 13, 1558, and her husband was not present. In a letter to his sister Joan, Philip expressed "reasonable regret" over her death. However, there was a scandal during the funeral when Winchester's Bishop John White gave an obituary for Mary and expressed doubts about Elizabeth's abilities as Queen. As a result, Elizabeth had him arrested a day later. With Mary's death and Elizabeth's ascension to the throne, England's generational traumas of Katherine and Anne finally came to an end. Although there were others to follow, such as the "Great Plot" to assassinate Elizabeth I and Mary, Queen of Scots. But we will not delve into them today.
Examples for literature and sources used for this text (That’s far from being all. I tried to pick those
you can check online yourself for this list):
Borman, T. (2023). Anne Boleyn & Elizabeth I.
Edwards, J. (2007). Mary I: England’s Catholic Queen.
Edwards, J. (2018). Mary I: The Daughter of Time. https://www.amazon.de/Mary-Penguin-Monarchs-Daughter-Time/dp/0141988681
Froude, J. A. (2023). The Divorce of Catherine of Aragon
The Story as Told by the Imperial Ambassadors Resident at the Court of Henry VIII.
Lee, S. (1900). Wyatt, Thomas. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Dictionary_of_National_Biography,_1885-1900/Wyatt,_Thomas_(1521%3F-1554))
Lemon, R (1856). Calendar of State Papers, Domestic Series, of the Reigns of Edward VI., Mary, Elizabeth and James I, 1547-1625 Preserved in the Stat Paper Department of Her Majesty's Public Record Office. https://www.google.de/books/edition/Calendar_of_State_Papers_Domestic_Series/NvsUAAAAQAAJ?hl=de&gbpv=1&dq=state+papers+domestic+mary+I&printsec=frontcover
Loades, D. (2016). Elizabeth I: A Life.
Loades, D. (2011). Mary Tudor.
Mayer, T. F. (2000). Reginald Pole – Prince & Prophet. https://www.google.de/books/edition/Reginald_Pole/OqaBq2QGrFEC?hl=de&gbpv=1&dq=reginald+pole&printsec=frontcover
Neale, J. E. (1934). Queen Elizabeth. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.208607/mode/2up
Nichols, J. G. (editor) (1850). The chronicle of Queen Jane, and of two years of Queen Mary, and especially of the rebellion of Sir Thomas Wyat / Written by a resident in the Tower of London. https://books.google.de/books?id=-cwyHxW4TwEC&printsec=frontcover&hl=de&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false
Whitelock, A. (2016). Mary Tudor: England’s First Queen.
2024.05.04 22:00 the_gamer_98 First ever diagram of my homelab!
 | https://preview.redd.it/igsjuwtttgyc1.png?width=8192&format=png&auto=webp&s=5262ce4b75f23bd21a5fbb765d6cd8399361b106 submitted by the_gamer_98 to homelab [link] [comments] My first ever homelab diagram. I saw the ones created by u/TheGeek01 and was instantly amazed, so I created my own. Another benefit of creating a diagram is to get an overview of everything I have and how it is setup. It gets quiet overhelming if you just add new stuff and dont log it anywhere. Still got a lot to add. I have just to much stuff. The diagram is created with draw.io |
2024.05.03 18:23 the_gamer_98 There ist still so much to do!
 | https://preview.redd.it/qqrc1oasl8yc1.png?width=8192&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbfb12d04b8de59bea8b3d0fe05fd1df8337d712 submitted by the_gamer_98 to homelab [link] [comments] Got the inspiration from u/TheGeek01, Thank you!! |
2024.05.01 14:10 longest_day Editorial in today's Age: Melbourne Rebels are a cause worth rallying
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-rebels-are-a-cause-worth-rallying-around-20240430-p5fnla.html
Melburnians love their sport. The AFL is, of course, top dog in the city and Victoria, but we have a well-earned reputation for showing up to sports of all descriptions.
Just this year, more than 1 million tennis fans flocked to the Australian Open, smashing the previous record by nearly 200,000. There is good reason that Melbourne is the sporting capital of Australia.
That does not, however, always translate to success for the professional sporting teams based in the city. One recent and lamentable case is that of the Melbourne Rebels, which joined the Super Rugby competition in 2011. After several iterations, the competition now includes teams from around Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Pacific Islands.
It is ironic that as the Rebels are this year enjoying some rare success on the field – they currently sit fifth on the table and look likely to play in the finals – the headlines surrounding the club are about its desperate attempts to survive.
The club was placed into voluntary administration earlier this year as its debts topped $23 million, including $2 million owed to Victorian government entities and an $11 million bill with the Australian Taxation Office.
In a bid to stave off winding up the club, a private equity-backed consortium led by Leigh Clifford, formerly chairman of Qantas and chief executive of Rio Tinto, is bidding to acquire it with a deal that would pump up to $30 million into the ailing organisation and relocate it to Melbourne’s western suburbs.
Under the plan, as revealed by Age reporters Sarah Danckert and Carla Jaeger, the club is hoping to share the Wyndham Regional Football Facility in Tarneit with the Western United A-League team. Consortium spokeswoman Georgia Widdup, a Melbourne Rebels director, is predictably upbeat about the bid, and said it “would be the game-changer” that would “grow the sport of rugby in the fastest-growing municipality in Australia”.
The sticking point is the fractious relationship between the consortium and Rugby Australia, which seized the Melbourne club’s licence when it entered administration.
The situation was aggravated when the Rebels’ administrators, which have backed the consortium’s plan to take over the team, made the shocking revelation last week that the club had been trading insolvent for more than five years.
Former club directors are pointing the finger at Rugby Australia for the club’s woes, claiming it was misled by the national body when it came to financial backing. Rugby Australia fired back, saying it had “complied with all its contractual obligations”, which included “payment of all funding”. It’s hardly an ideal scenario to resolve the matter.
And to make matters worse, if creditors – who are owed a total $23 million – vote against the proposal, Rebels directors could face personal liability of $16.8 million for the club’s losses. That would potentially result in an extended legal battle between the directors, Rugby Australia and creditors.
There is a way forward. The consortium is a credible group that should be given the green light by Rugby Australia to get the Rebels back on a firmer financial footing. If needed, the state government, which until now has been hesitant to intervene, should step in to help bolster the club’s position.
While rugby has always struggled to gain a strong foothold in Victoria, it has a long history. The first recorded game played in the state was between the Carlton Football Club and a Sydney team in 1878. The code is now one of the truly global sports.
Melburnians have proved they will come out in numbers to watch rugby union. In July last year, nearly 84,000 rugby fans packed into the MCG to, regrettably, watch the All Blacks defeat the Wallabies. The deserted stands at Rebels games this year should be taken as a marker of how low things have got, not where they could be.
Next year, the city is slated to host the British and Irish Lions playing the Rebels – should the team survive – and then the Wallabies in the same week. In 2027, Australia will host the Rugby World Cup. This should be a time for Victoria to shine again as a lover of sports on the world stage.
The Rebels need our support. It’s time for less rancour and more goodwill.
submitted by longest_day to RugbyAustralia [link] [comments]
Melburnians love their sport. The AFL is, of course, top dog in the city and Victoria, but we have a well-earned reputation for showing up to sports of all descriptions.
Just this year, more than 1 million tennis fans flocked to the Australian Open, smashing the previous record by nearly 200,000. There is good reason that Melbourne is the sporting capital of Australia.
That does not, however, always translate to success for the professional sporting teams based in the city. One recent and lamentable case is that of the Melbourne Rebels, which joined the Super Rugby competition in 2011. After several iterations, the competition now includes teams from around Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Pacific Islands.
It is ironic that as the Rebels are this year enjoying some rare success on the field – they currently sit fifth on the table and look likely to play in the finals – the headlines surrounding the club are about its desperate attempts to survive.
The club was placed into voluntary administration earlier this year as its debts topped $23 million, including $2 million owed to Victorian government entities and an $11 million bill with the Australian Taxation Office.
In a bid to stave off winding up the club, a private equity-backed consortium led by Leigh Clifford, formerly chairman of Qantas and chief executive of Rio Tinto, is bidding to acquire it with a deal that would pump up to $30 million into the ailing organisation and relocate it to Melbourne’s western suburbs.
Under the plan, as revealed by Age reporters Sarah Danckert and Carla Jaeger, the club is hoping to share the Wyndham Regional Football Facility in Tarneit with the Western United A-League team. Consortium spokeswoman Georgia Widdup, a Melbourne Rebels director, is predictably upbeat about the bid, and said it “would be the game-changer” that would “grow the sport of rugby in the fastest-growing municipality in Australia”.
The sticking point is the fractious relationship between the consortium and Rugby Australia, which seized the Melbourne club’s licence when it entered administration.
The situation was aggravated when the Rebels’ administrators, which have backed the consortium’s plan to take over the team, made the shocking revelation last week that the club had been trading insolvent for more than five years.
Former club directors are pointing the finger at Rugby Australia for the club’s woes, claiming it was misled by the national body when it came to financial backing. Rugby Australia fired back, saying it had “complied with all its contractual obligations”, which included “payment of all funding”. It’s hardly an ideal scenario to resolve the matter.
And to make matters worse, if creditors – who are owed a total $23 million – vote against the proposal, Rebels directors could face personal liability of $16.8 million for the club’s losses. That would potentially result in an extended legal battle between the directors, Rugby Australia and creditors.
There is a way forward. The consortium is a credible group that should be given the green light by Rugby Australia to get the Rebels back on a firmer financial footing. If needed, the state government, which until now has been hesitant to intervene, should step in to help bolster the club’s position.
While rugby has always struggled to gain a strong foothold in Victoria, it has a long history. The first recorded game played in the state was between the Carlton Football Club and a Sydney team in 1878. The code is now one of the truly global sports.
Melburnians have proved they will come out in numbers to watch rugby union. In July last year, nearly 84,000 rugby fans packed into the MCG to, regrettably, watch the All Blacks defeat the Wallabies. The deserted stands at Rebels games this year should be taken as a marker of how low things have got, not where they could be.
Next year, the city is slated to host the British and Irish Lions playing the Rebels – should the team survive – and then the Wallabies in the same week. In 2027, Australia will host the Rugby World Cup. This should be a time for Victoria to shine again as a lover of sports on the world stage.
The Rebels need our support. It’s time for less rancour and more goodwill.
2024.04.28 14:10 SamAngelFox (What's the Story) Morning Glory 2011 Remaster?
So I found out the version of the album I've had for so long was a 2011 Remaster. This remaster sounds amazing, it doesn't sound as stuffy, it's so clean and clear sounding... but it's unauthorised/unofficial? And I can't find any further information about it other than it can be found on a pirate bay proxy and or it appears on those sites were you can download full band discographies.
So does anyone here know the history of this apparent unofficial remaster? While I think it sounds great, did it save me from how the album is originally mixed?
submitted by SamAngelFox to oasis [link] [comments]
So does anyone here know the history of this apparent unofficial remaster? While I think it sounds great, did it save me from how the album is originally mixed?
2024.04.27 19:28 CatWatt April 26th Special Days - Featuring Bird Freebies!
2024.04.26 00:02 Minute-Pilot5282 Jeg mener Norge svikter jødene, igjen.
Jeg leste i avisen i dag at vår utenriksminister Barth Eide signaliserer at Norge kan anerkjenne Palestina som egen stat om kort tid. Jeg er ikke nødvendigvis mot dette på sikt, men mener det er helt feil tidspunkt med tanke på hvem som har styringen i Gaza nå, og at det er et fryktelig galt signal å sende alle som vurderer å benytte terrorisme i vår tid for å oppnå sine mål.
Jeg bestemte meg derfor ganske tilfeldig å skrive et innlegg her i dag om konflikten. Det ble altfor langt, og jeg forventer stort sett tommel ned på det fra mine norske medborgere. Men kan jeg i hvert fall be at de som nå allerede er klar for å trykke på tommel ned-ikonet at de leser igjennom innlegget først, så kan dere sable meg ned i kommentarene, og gjøre hva dere vil etterpå, inkl. totalt ignorere meg.
Dersom det mot all formodning er noen som er litt enig med meg, så hadde det vært kjempehyggelig å høre, og mine jødiske venner vil trolig sette stor pris på det. De har ikke noe positivt inntrykk av Norge for tiden, og føler seg veldig alene.
(Jeg skal ikke redigere innlegget annet enn muligens å rette opp i noen skrivefeil.)
----
Mitt klare syn er at venstresiden i norsk politikk er i ferd med å la Norge totalt svikte jødene på nytt. Norge har svært få jøder igjen, så det er ikke mange stemmer å hente der. I november 1942 seilte skipet Donau ut fra Oslo havn fylt opp med jøder i retning konsentrasjonsleirene, og Norge hadde nettopp bistått nazistene med å fange jødene og bringe dem til skipet. Berg interneringsleir i Vestfold har også en særdeles mørk historie i denne sammenhengen.
Etter andre verdenskrig i 1947 nektet araberne å godta FNs vedtatte delingsplan (2/3 flertall) for Palestina og sa samtidig at de aldri kom til å godkjenne noen delingsplan overhodet. De mye sterkere arabiske nabolandene gikk deretter sammen til krig mot den ferske miniputtstaten Israel med det mål for øyet at hele Israel skulle bli eliminert fra kartet. Slike kriger gjentok seg med jevne mellomrom, og jødene visste at de hadde intet annet valg enn å vinne. Alternativet hadde vært en total utryddelse av den jødiske stat inkludert de som overlevde Holocaust. Hamas er bare en forlengelse av dette, og det verste er at Hamas faktisk er folkevalgt, og har massiv støtte i den palestinske befolkningen. En palestiner i Libanon ble nylig intervjuet hvor han sa at reporteren ville få vansker med å finne en eneste palestiner som ikke støttet Hamas og 7. oktober.
På den tiden (1947- ) hadde ikke Israel noen sterk alliert i ryggen, mens Egypt og Syria bl.a. hadde støtte fra Sovjetunionen. Fra dette har norsk venstreside, akp/ml og andre marxistesosialister bygget sin støtte til Palestina, og dette er nå så innprentet i det norske etablissementet, at vi har en stor gruppe mennesker som hele sitt liv, fra AUF til stortinget, fra Rød Ungdom til VGs redaksjon (eller Faktisk.no....), eller Palestinakomiteer til lærerjobb i barne- og ungdomsskoler har hatt sitt flagg plantet solid på palestinernes side og ikke engang det verste terrorangrepet i nyere tid, 7. oktober 2023 kunne få dem til å åpne opp øynene. Bare litt over en måned senere tok stortinget opp et forslag fra Rødt om å anerkjenne Palestina som en selvstendig stat. Et forkastelig signal om at terrorisme faktisk lønner seg.
Det er også en stor del av disse som har satset all sin prestisje og bygd sin karriere på at selveste NORGE skal skape fred i Midtøsten, noe som kun folk totalt uten bakkekontakt ser på som noen reell mulighet. Norge har gang på gang feilet som fredsmekler, siden vi rett og slett ikke har noen pressmidler annet ennå kaste penger etter folk. Jeg husker tilbake på et legendarisk intervju i BBC Hardtalk hvor Erik Solheim (SV) ble totalt kledd naken på dette feltet. De som ikke har sett dette intervjuet bør ta en kikk, det er vel verdt det.
Palestina-støtten i Norge er nå så massiv, også blant vanlige folk at jeg ser lite håp til endring. Jeg går rundt og er rasende over at vi på nytt skal begå et historisk svik. Norge har skilt seg markant fra våre nordiske naboer siden 7. oktober. Vi har stemt annerledes i FN, nektet å putte Hamas på listen over terroristorganisasjoner, aldri stoppet støtten til UNRWA, hatt en utenriksminister som konsekvent kritiserer Israel, men sjelden ber Hamas om å frigi gislene eller slutte med sine krigsforbrytelser, ikke tatt en aktiv del i den militære kampen for å forsvare (Norsk) skipsfart i Rødehavet fra Houthienes angrep, etc. etc..
- En av NRKs fremste terroristeksperter, Lars Gule, ble som ung arrestert og dømt til fengsel i Midtøsten da han fraktet eksplosiver for en palestinsk terroristorganisasjon til bruk i terrorangrep mot Israel.
- Vår egen statsminister Støre ble tatt i løgn på TV i et famøst intervju med TV2 der han løy om kontakt med Hamas, en terroristorganisasjon som er på terrorlisten både i USA og EU. Støre prøver deretter å overtale reporteren til å gjøre intervjuet på nytt etter at han ble avslørt, alt mens kameraet ruller.
- Media bruker stadig vekk ekstremister som Mads Gilbert (politiker i Rødt) som sannhetsvitne for det som skjer i Gaza. Han ble tatt i løgn da han sa Hamas ikke hadde tuneller eller aktivitet ved Shifa-sykehuset. Han har offentlig også uttrykt støtte for både 11. september-terrorangrepet i USA og 7. oktober-terrorangrepet i Israel.
- Vi er en av de største donorene til UNRWA, som er en massiv FN-styrt organisasjon med ca. 30000 ansatte eksklusivt for palestinske flyktninger, som omfatter alt mulig fra skoler, til sosialhjelp, nødhjelp, etc. En stor del av pengene vi har betalt inn der har nok dessverre gått til å finansiere terror. I UNRWA's barneskoler indoktrineres de unge til å bli terrorister, og man kan se intervjuer med 6-7-åringer som ivrig forteller hvordan de skal knivstikke, kidnappe, sprenge og kjøre over jøder med bil. Merk at når de snakker om Israel, bruker palestinerne sjelden ordet sionist. De sier det rett ut: Jøde. Vestlige antisemitter har blitt smartere og bruker konsekvent ordet "sionist", men det er lett å gjennomskue hva mange av dem tenker på. UNRWA-utstyr er blitt funnet i terrortunnellene (mer enn 500 km tunell har de bygd, opptil 40 meter under bakken). Terrortuneller er funnet under UNRWA hovedkvarteret. Gisler er holdt til fange av UNRWA-ansatte. Israel har delt bevis med FN på at minst 12 UNRWA ansatte deltok aktivt i terrorangrepet 7. oktober (sammen med fotografer ansatt i Reuters og Associated Press ...). Man kan se videoer fra "juleavslutning" i UNRWA's barneskoler hvor elevene spiller teater som gjenskaper gisseltagning av jøder hvor de små barna er kledd opp i militæruniformer og har automatgevær og kniver som en del av kostymet. 8000 UNRWA-ansatte ga sin støtte til at en kjent Hamas-terrorist skulle bli leder i fagforeningen sin, etc. etc.
Problemet med UNRWA og FNs holdning til Palestina er at de har gitt palestinerne en eksklusiv rett til å arve flyktningstatus. Ingen andre flyktninggrupper i verden har en slik rettighet. Selv en 5-generasjons palestinsk "flyktning" som reiser til USA og blir en suksessrik kirurg der er også på livstid teknisk sett en flyktning, så vel som barna hans. UNRWA selv vil bli nedlagt dersom palestinerne noen gang får orden på samfunnet sitt, så det er null insentiv og motivasjon for virkelig å gjøre ting bedre. Palestinerne selv sier at de er sterkere enn fienden, fordi de kjemper for døden, mens israelerne kjemper for livet. En mor som hadde sendt 3 av sine sønner i døden som selvmordsbombere ble valgt inn i parlamentet på grunn av dette. På TV sitter palestisnke kvinner og argumenterer for at palestinske terrorister har rett til å voldta kvinnelige israelske gisler. Palestinske myndigheter betaler en slags "NAV-trygd" til familiemedlemmer av terrorister som blir satt i fengsel av Israel. De månedlige utbetalingene er ikke like, men størrelsen blir bestemt av hvor grusomt og dødelig terroren var, lengden på fengselsstraffen, etc. UNRWA og FNs holdning til Palestina er en eviggående mekanisme som opprettholder all elendigheten for både palestinere og israelere på ubestemt tid.
FNs medlemsland inneholder en rekke land som totalt ønsker å utslette Israel fra kartet, en rekke land som konsekvent stemmer mot det USA og deres allierte ønsker, en haug med antisemitter, nasjoner som Norge som er mer opptatt av å framstå som "de gode" til å sette seg inn i hva slags problemer Israel reelt sett står overfor. Ledelsen i FN har blitt kritisert for å ha blitt infiltrert av alt for mange med anti-israelske holdninger, deriblant selve generalsekretæren i FN, António Guterres, og "Special Rapporteur" Francesca Albanese (som tidligere har jobbet for UNRWA). Når Guterres ytret det famøse sitatet om at 7. oktober "ikke skjedde i et vakuum" gikk det et kaldt gufs nedover ryggen på meg. Bare tenk deg om han hadde sagt det samme om Anders Behring Breivik.
Det er totalt utenkelig at en slik uttalelse kunne kommet om et lignende terrorangrep dersom ikke Israel var offeret. Hamas sendte 7. oktober flere tusen av "Anders Behring Breiviker" dopet på Captagon over grensen for å utføre en udåd flere ganger verre en Bataclan og Utøya lagt til sammen. Hadde det skjedd oss hadde vi ikke inntatt en så ekstremt hyklersk holdning som vi har nå. Det verste er at mange av de aller verste torturscenene utspant seg når Gazas sivilbefolkning rykket inn kibbutzene i etterkant. Alle de som har sett videoen av den unge tyske kvinnen Shani Louk’s forvrengte og knapt påkledde lik ligge på et lasteplan gjennom Gazas gater, mens en jublende folkemengde sparker og slår løs på hennes døde kropp av full kraft vil aldri glemme det.
FN har til nå ikke klart å vedta en fordømmelse av terrorangrepet 7. oktober. Tenk over det.
Flere popartister som Alicia Keys postet gladelig referanser til paragliding dagene etter terrorangrepet. Keys skrev følgende på Instagram (en post hun senere har slettet):
"What would u do if you weren’t afraid of anything??? Tell me your truth…. I’ve had my eyes on paragliding…"
Til opplysning så fløy Hamas-terrorister inn med paraglidere og angrep musikkfestivalen Nova, og drepte over 260 festivaldeltagere der. Mange av festivaldeltagerne var folk som hadde flydd inn fra utlandet for å delta på festivalen. Øyenvitner fortalte om groteske gruppevoldtektsscener, der offeret gradvis ble hakket i hjel mens det seksuelle overgrepet foregikk.
For de som hevder at Israel kun er "okkupanter" og ikke har noe i det området å gjøre så anbefaler jeg å ta en kikk på historien. Jødene var der først, over 3000 år siden. Før ordet Palestina ble skapt. Før religionen Islam ble skapt. Det har aldri i historien eksistert noen Palestinsk konge, nasjon eller stat. Forskjellige makter har byttet på å ha kontrollen over området (romere, grekere, tyrkere, briter...) Andre arabiske land ser ikke en gang på Palestinerne som ordentlige arabere, men innflyttere fra diverse klaner og geografiske områder. Alle som hevder dette kun er en strid om land har ikke forstått at dette i stor grad er en religiøst og ideologisk motivert krig, som har vart i hundrevis av år, der palestinernes sak svært ofte har blitt (mis)brukt av andre i deres kamp mot enten jøder eller kapitalisme generelt. Sjekk ut Balfour-erklæringen. Sjekk ut det britiske mandatet for Palestina, satt i gang av forgjengeren til FN (League of Nations). Sjekk ut Peel-kommisjonen. Sjekk ut Hebron-massakren i 1929. Sammenlign Jordans flagg med Palestinas flagg. Sjekk mynter fra det britiske palestinske mandatets tid på 1920-tallet der det står "Palestine - Land of Israel" på hebraisk. Israel har også sine svin på skogen (Haganah, bl.a.), men de har utviklet samfunnet sitt i en positiv retning, mens Palestina ikke skaper mye annet enn død og elendighet for andre og ikke minst seg selv. Jeg er sterkt kritisk til mange av de nyere Israelske bosetterne som har kommet til de siste årene, så Israel er langt fra perfekt. Men de som ikke skjønner den historiske grunnen til israelske bosetninger vil aldri kunne forstå konflikten fullt ut. Israel har fra dets fødsel vært angrepet fra sine naboer, noe vi i fredelige Norge aldri kan klare å leve oss inn i. Tenk deg der du bor, kanskje det er på Hamar, kanskje det er i Tromsø ... 3 km unna bor det tusenvis av mennesker som, hvis de får tak i deg, vil drepe deg på det mest bestialske vis som man kan tenke seg, seksuell vold, øyer skåret ut, avkapping av kjønnsorganer, levende amputasjon av armer og ben, organer revet ut av kroppen med bare hender, og folk bundet sammen med piggtråd og brent levende. Alt mens de bruker din egen mobil til å live-streame torturen og drapet til dine venner og familiemedlemmer.
De som ikke har sett alle videoene fra 7. oktober plikter seg selv å gjøre dette, selv om det trolig vil gå ut over sjelefreden din for evig tid. De bestialske handlingene ble dokumentert av Hamas selv, og de er ille nok, men det som er mest skremmende for meg er den ekstreme gleden de utviser når de utfører grusomhetene. Latteren. Gjentatte rop "Allahu Akbar". Telefon hjem til mor og far i Gaza hvor man stolt skryter av hva man har gjort.
Gaza var slett ikke okkupert av Israel 7. oktober i fjor. Israelerne trakk seg helt ut fra Gaza i 2005 (samt fra bosetninger i Samara). Den Israelske hæren dro med seg alle israelere som ikke ville dra etter håret, og til og med israelske gravplasser ble gravd opp og alle israelske levninger ble tatt med tilbake til Israel, da det var kjent fra tidligere tilbaketrekninger i Libanon at palestinerne gravde opp gravene og skjendet likene dersom de fikk anledning til å gjøre dette. Etter at Israel hadde trukket seg ut sto Gaza helt klart for all verdens av muligheter. Israelerne etterlot blant annet en industri med over 3000 høyteknologiske drivhus som palestinerne selv så for seg at de kunne utnytte for å bygge opp en egen eksportindustri, og ved kysten så folk for seg at palestinerne kunne gjøre det stort innenfor turisme, og skape sitt eget lille Dubai og utvikle samfunnet sitt i positiv retning. Palestinerne derimot valgte terroristorganisasjonen Hamas med et stort flertall i valget, knuste og robbet alle drivhusene og etter brutale stridigheter mellom Hamas og den Palestinske selvstyremyndigheten begynte de å bygge et gigantisk nettverk av terror-tuneller, de gravde opp vannrør fra bakken for å bygge raketter, og de plasserte militære enheter i alt som finnes av skoler, moskeer, sykehus og barnehager. Når Hamas driver med krigføring mot Israel brytes ALT av krigens lover. Det kjempes i sivile klær, sivile tas som gisler, sykehus og lignende brukes til militær virksomhet, raketter skytes blindt ut mot israels sivilbefolkning, sine egne borgere brukes som menneskelige skjold. Men i Vesten er det stort sett Israel som skal kritiseres ...
Det er er en stor tabbe å konsekvent anse den svake part som den gode, og den sterke part som den onde.
De største forkjempere for Palestina utenfor Gaza er jihadister, marxistesosialister og folk med antisemittiske holdninger, samt en hel generasjon med forvirrede unge på TikTok - en sosial media plattform som er eid og styrt fra Kina, men IKKE er tilgjengelig i Kina! (jeg har hørt alle unnskyldningene hvorfor, men faktum er at TikTok ikke er tilgjengelig i Kina). TikTok er en gigantisk påvirkningsmekanisme og etterretningsverktøy som heldigvis folk begynner å få øynene opp for.
Da Rødt-politikeren Mads Gilbert uttrykte støtte for 7. oktober angrepet var han i Sør-Afrika. Der snakket han litt for mye "rett fra levra" og skjønte ikke at alt han sa ble viderefortalt til resten av verden. Det er ikke en tilfeldighet at det er Sør-Afrika som har kommet med beskyldninger om folkemord i Gaza. De er en kjent alliert av Hamas. De fleste andre siviliserte land vi sammenligner oss med har forsvart Israel i denne saken, bl.a. Tyskland, USA og Storbritannia. Dersom du tror at Haag-domstolen har erklært at det er et folkemord som skjer i Gaza, så har du blitt lurt av manipulative overskrifter. 1300 advokater i Storbritannia skrev nylig under på et brev til regjeringen der det påpekes at omtalen av hva Haag-domstolen sa i januar ikke er korrekt. De har ikke engang begynt å undersøke saken, og dersom det kommer en avgjørelse så vil ikke det skje på mange år.
FN selv har sagt at typisk 90% av de som dør i moderne kriger i urbane strøk er sivile, altså en faktor på 9:1 mellom sivile og kjempende. Selv dersom vi skulle tro på Hamas' egne tall for antall døde (vi gjorde ikke det samme med ISIS), så er faktoren i denne konflikten kun 1,5 til 1. Et enestående resultat når man ser at krigføringen som gjøres er i tett befolkede urbane strøk, og at Hamas har som hovedstrategi å benytte sin egen befolkning som menneskelige skjold for å utøve press på verdensopinionen. Hamas-ledere med milliardformue sitter trygt i Qatar og sier på TV at sivilbefolkningen IKKE får lov til å søke ly i det over 500 km lange tunnelsystemet Hamas har bygget over flere år, bl.a. med bistandsmidler Norge har sendt. Hamas' eneste sjanse for å overleve denne konflikten er å få opp tallene på døde av sin egen sivilbefolkning for å få opp det internasjonale presset på Israel fra nyttige idioter og antisemitter i Vesten, slik at Biden skal bli tvunget til å tvinge Israel til å stoppe. Biden er livredd for å tape valget i november og flere topp-demokrater (Schumer og Pelosi) har offentlig bedt Israel kaste regjeringen og inngå våpenhvileavtaler, selv når amerikanske borgere fortsatt sitter som gisler i Gaza. Det VAR våpenhvile i Gaza morgenen 7. oktober, 2023. Hamas brøt den.
Dersom du tror Israel er en apartheid-stat så tror du også på julenissen. Amnesty International er en av gruppene som påstår dette, men Amnesty er ikke det Amnesty jeg trodde vi hadde når jeg gikk på skolen som ung. De uttrykte nylig støtte til en Palestinsk terrorist (Walid Daqqa) som døde av kreft i fengsel, og omtalte ham kun som en "forfatter". De glemte å nevne at han hadde ledet gjengen som torturerte en ung 19-årig israeler (Moshe Tamam) til døde over flere dager, og bla. skåret ut øynene hans og kappet av kjønnsorganene, alt mens den unge mannen levde. Tamam ble til slutt skutt.
Jeg har sett folk bruke begrepet "fengsel under åpen himmel" om Israels blokade av Gaza. Jeg har aldri før hørt om et fengsel hvor fangevokterne kontroller kun 3 av 4 vegger. Egypt har en lang grense mot sør-siden av Gaza (Rafah-området). En grense de har gjort sitt ytterste for å stenge slik at ikke en eneste palestiner får flyktet fra krigssonen. Egypt (og Jordan) har veldig lite til overs for palestinernes sak generelt, med tanke på at Hamas er en avlegger av det islamske brorskap som har skapt mye elendighet i Egypt. Jordan har også hatt sine problemer med palestinere, bl.a. da en palestiner drepte Kong Abdullah I i 1951. I stedet for at Egypt setter av et område ved grensen der sivile fra Gaza kan unnslippe krigshandlingene, har de i stedet bygget en ekstra dobbelt mur for å hermetisk stenge palestinerne inne. Bare tenk dersom ingen ukrainere hadde fått forlate Bakhmut. Vi har alle sett bildene derfra. Når Russland innvaderte Ukraina i 2022 åpnet Europa sine dører og millioner av ukrainere er nå i sikkerhet mens krigen raser i hjemlandet.
Kritikken av Israels sikkerhetstiltak mot palestinsk terrorisme faller på sin egen urimelighet når man innser at sikkerhetstiltakene langt fra var sterke nok. Israel ble totalt overumplet 7. oktober, 2023. Angrepet ble også utført av arbeidere fra Gaza som hadde tillatelse til å jobbe i Israel og brukte dette til å utføre etterretning på forhånd slik at angrepet skulle bli så vellyket som mulig. De angrep også kibbutzer som inneholdt svært mange palestinsk-vennlige israelere, som bl.a. jobber for å sørge for helsehjelp i Israel til folk i Gaza og som politisk var helt på venstresiden av israelsk politikk. De har nå endret syn på saken - de som overlevde.
Israel er det eneste demokratiet i Midtøsten. Det er over 2 millioner arabere som bor i Israel med helt like rettigheter som andre innbyggere. De kjemper sammen med andre israelere i forsvaret. En arabisk høyesterettsdommer dømte en tidligere Israelsk statsminister til fengsel for noen år siden. Alle trafikkskilt er på Hebraisk, Arabisk og Engelsk. LGBT-mennesker kan leve fritt i Israel, og kvinner og menn er likeverdige. Israel har religionsfrihet, en fri presse, frie valg og en sterk politisk opposisjon. Dersom man skal snakke om folkemord og etnisk retning så ta en kikk på hvor mange jøder som bor i resten av Midtøsten og arabiske land nå om dagen sammenlignet med før. Israel er knøttlite sammenlignet med den arabiske verdenen, og stort sett alt av jøder har blitt kastet ut eller flyktet fra arabiske land. Flere arabiske land nekter også israelere innreise.
Israel tar ikke gisler slik Palestinerne gjør. Den nåværende Hamas-lederen Ismail Haniyeh fikk livreddende kreftbehandling av israelske kirurger når han satt i israelsk fengsel, og ble senere sluppet fri. Flere av de palestinske fangene som har blitt sluppet fri i de nylige fangeutvekslingene satt i fengsel pga. voldelige angrep og terroristvirksomhet, mens på den annen siden Hamas' gisler i Gaza er totalt uskyldige sivile, fra under 1 år gamle babyer (fortsatt ikke satt fri) til 80-åringer, folk med amputerte armer og skuddskader sitter fanget i mørke og skitne terrortuneller og kvinner blir utsatt for seksuelle overgrep. Når det snakkes om palestinske "barn" i israelske fengsler så er det som regel snakk om 15-17-åringer som har gått til dødelige angrep mot israelere. Merk at Storbritannia har en kriminell lavalder på 10 år. Knivstikking, skyting, sprengning og påkjøring med bil er vanlig, men også steinkasting. Dersom du mener steinkasting er barnelek, så oppfordrer jeg deg til å stille deg opp på fortauet mens du lar en 17-åring kaste en stor stein i hodet på deg av all makt. Kom tilbake til meg med bilder og en fortelling om hvor artig du synes det var (dersom du overlever).
Vi sitter her i trygge Norge og er ekstremt hyklerske i forhold til denne konflikten. Vi klarer ikke å ta inn over oss jødenes situasjon. Det er helt ekstremt å se jøder i alle vestlige byer i Europa og USA være redde for å gå ut på gaten og å gå på skole og universitet. Mediene i Norge filtrerer ut en hel masse. De er profesjonelle manipulatorer, men også del av et bittelite journalistisk miljø så de er redde for å skille seg ut. De lyver sjelden rett ut, men den aller største synden journalister gjør er at de kun nevner ting de "synes passer". Alt annet blir gjemt bort og feid under teppet. Manipulativ bildebruk, overskrift og presentasjon er også svært vanlig. Det samme er det å ringe rundt til man til slutt finner en "ekspert" som sier det journalisten ønsker de skal si, og disse blir ofte gjengangere i spaltene. Vi pleier å le av russere som har blitt hjernevasket gjennom statskanalene hele livet til å godta alt av galskap Putin bringer landet. Vi er ikke noe bedre selv. Du skulle bare visst hvor mye antisemittisme og åpenlys støtte for terror som skjer rundtomkring i Europa og USA nå om dagen. Jeg er en ateist, men jeg selv føler en frykt på jødenes vegne, men kan vanskelig klare å sette meg inn i hvordan det er for dem å ikke tørre å bevege seg rundt i London, eller når universitet de går på i New York ikke klarer å sikre deres tilværelse, så det blir lagt opp til at de skal ta utdanningen sin hjemme over Zoom.
De aller fleste nordmenn har heller ikke skjønt Irans rolle i alt dette, siden de aldri har lært om det på skolen eller kunne lese om det i avisene. Israel blir angrepet fra alle himmelretninger, og det som er felles for disse terrorgruppene er at de alle sponses, trenes og får våpenstøtte av Iran. Ayatollahene i Iran prøver så godt de kan å skaffe seg atomvåpen, og har flere ganger offentlig sagt at målet er å totalt utslette Israel. Når norske folk tror at de siste stridighetene startet med angrepet på bygget ved siden av den Iranske ambassaden i Damaskus 1. april, så har de ikke skjønt hva som skjer. Iran har drevet en skyggekrig på Israel og USA i årevis. Når USA gikk inn i Pakistan og drepte Osama bin Laden, så var det ikke snakk om at New York, Los Angeles, Miami og Houston skulle teppebombes med 330+ droner, kryssermissiler og ballistiske missiler. Generalene fra IRGC / Quds-styrken som ble drept i Damaskus har vært aktivt med å planlegge og tilrettelegge angrep på Israel både før og etter 7. oktober. Når USA drepte Qasem Soleimani med samme motivasjon så var det ikke noen fordømmelse av det. Wien-konvensjonen legger sterke bånd på vertsnasjonen (Syria) til å ikke angripe ambassaden, men sier ingenting om at andre land ikke kan angripe, og det var ikke engang ambassadebygningen som ble truffet, men en bygning ved siden av som har lenge blitt brukt til militære formål i Irans proxy-krig mot Israel via Hezbollah, Hamas og Houthiene.
Prestestyret i Iran er ikke Iran. Det er massiv mostand mot ayatollahene internt i Iran og blant folk som har flyktet fra Iran etter revolusjonen i 1979. Ayatollahene fører en PR krig der de prøver å dreie denne mostanden til å kun dreie seg om en sak: Hijaben. Dette er ille nok, men det opposisjonen i Iran kjemper mot er mye, mye mer enn kun en sak. Irans regime utfører horrible overgrep mot egen befolkning. Når arrangørene av en fotballkamp i Iran reiste det palestinske flagget på en fotballkamp i fjor, ropte det iranske publikummet høylytt sammen at de som gjorde dette "kunne ta det flagget og skyve det opp i ræva si". Jeg har med skrekk og gru sett nordmenn uttrykke støtte for prestestyret i Iran etter 1. april i år. Grunnen til dette er ikke at de er på iranernes side, ihvertfall ikke folket i Iran, men at de er fiendtlig innstilt overfor Israel. Kanskje de selv egentlig ikke vet hvorfor.
De samme folkene gikk ikke i protesttog når millioner ble fordrevet i Syria og over 500 000 drept der, med over 110 000 drepte på kun ett år. De gikk ikke i protesttog når Mosul eller Raqqa ble totalt smadret. Når Pakistan utviser 1,6 millioner afghanere og sender dem tilbake til en uviss fremtid under Taliban er det ingen her hjemme som reagerer. Det ble heller ikke noe protesttog når hundrevis av kristne ble massakrert julen 2023 i Nigeria. Sudan-krigen... who cares? Folk fra Kina blir ikke angrepet på gaten her i Europa selv om Kina begår overgrep mot Uigurene. Hashtaggen #NoJewsNoNews er særdeles klingende, og det betyr at så lenge ikke jødene er involvert, så bryr ikke folk seg filla over all elendigheten som skjer i verden. Man kan spørre seg selv hvorfor.
Under den siste Oscar-utdelingen gikk en rekke Hollywood-stjerner med en pin til støtte for Palestina. Symbolet var en rød håndflate. Dette er en referanse til et grusomt overgrep som ble utført på to israelere i Ramallah i 2000 under den andre intifadaen. De tok feil av veien og forvillet seg inn på feil område, og ble angrepet av en stor lynsjemobb. Politiet grep inn og fikk de i sikkerhet i fengselet, men lynsjemobben brøt seg inn og drepte de to israelerne på det mest bestialske vis. Enkelte politifolk var også med på drapet. Det er et veldig kjent foto fra denne dagen hvor en av morderne lener seg ut av et vindu på politistasjonen og viser sine hender til den jublende og ekstatiske folkemengden utenfor. Håndflatene er helt røde av blod. Mannen på bildet med de røde hendene ble senere fanget av Israel, men ble sluppet fri som en del av avtalen hvor det israelske gisselet Gilad Shalit ble frigitt i 2011 etter 5 års fangenskap (og 0 besøk fra Røde Kors etter Geneve-konvensjons regler) i bytte mot 1027 palestinske fanger. Disse frigitte fangene var sammen ansvarlige for 569 døde israelere. Når Hamas gikk til angrep 7. oktober håpet de kanskje på samme bytteforhold?
Faktisk.no er en av de ekstremt få vestlige medieorganisasjonen som ennå ikke har konkludert med hva som skjedde når det oppsto en eksplosjon ved Al-Ahli sykehuset 17. oktober i fjor. Omtrent samtlige etablerte medier gikk raskt ut og erklærte at israelerne hadde bombet sykehuset og at om lag 500 sivile hadde blitt drept, i et sykehus som var i ferd med å rase sammen. Sannheten viste seg å være at et palestinsk missil hadde feilet (de har en særdeles høy feilprosent og dreper mange av sine egne når de faller ned) og landet på parkeringsplassen på sykehuset og drepte dusinvis av mennesker, ikke hundrevis. Bildene viser at det umulig kan ha vært en flybombe fra det israelske luftforsvaret. "Krateret" som er avbildet er ikke større enn en fotball, og skadene ser ut til å våre forårsaket av en eksplosjonsartet brann, i motsetning til skader fra høyekplosiver. Raketten som feilet var full av drivstoff siden den akkurat hadde blitt skutt opp, og dette tok fyr når raketten landet på parkeringsplassen. Flere videoer og radar-analyser viser at prosjektilet kom fra palestinsk side. På samme måte som i Ukraine overvåker vestlig etteretning alt som skjer kontinuerlig ved hjeklp av radar. Fransk, tysk, kanadisk, britisk og amerikanske etterretningsorganisasjoner har konkludert med at det var palestinerne selv som stod bak. Dødstallene var feil. Lokasjonen var feil. Skadeomfanget var feil. Men den politisk og PR-messige skaden var allerede skjedd. Den massive og feilaktige presseomtalen spolerte totalt Bidens tur til Midtøsten og han fikk ikke hatt møtene som var avtalt og ingenting ble oppnådd. Israel har også publisert lydopptak fra avlyttede telefoner som inneholder diskusjoner hvor palestinerne snakker seg imellom at de traff feil sted. En arrestert palestiner snakker ut i en forhørsvideo som er offentlig publisert om hvordan deres globale mediestrategi er, og hvor vellykket dette var i Al-Ahli tilfellet. Påstander om at det var Iron Dome som var skyld i eksplosjonen kan umulig stemme, da Iron Dome raketter er programmert til å treffe rakettene på vei ned i Israel, ikke rett etter at de er skutt opp inne i Gaza. Det er ikke lenger noen rimelig tvil om hva som skjedde, men Faktisk.no "vet fortsatt ikke sikkert".
Nylig ble det avdekket massegraver ved et sykehus i Gaza (Nasser). På akkurat samme måte blir historien fra Hamas’ pressefolk ukritisk sirkulert i alle verdens aviser, og når det viser seg at det var en massegrav palestinerne selv gravde og la ut videoer av mens de gjorde det, kommer det ikke noe faktasjekk om dette på Faktisk.no eller korreksjon i norske medier. Den store løgnen ligger i alt som ikke blir nevnt.
Når palestinerne selv legger ut videoer at de går rundt på markeder i Gaza hvor det er mer enn nok med mat, så kommer ikke dette på førstesiden i VG eller Dagbladet. Når eksperter kritiserer satelittanalyser av ødelagte bygg i Gaza der det brukes lavoppløselige satellittbilder av dårlig kvalitet og eksperimentelle AI algoritmer for å gjette seg fram til hvor mye av Gaza som er bombet, så får flesteparten av Norges befolkning ikke vite om det.
Jeg har også vært i kontakt med flere palestinere som er redd for at verdensopinionen nå kommer til å stoppe krigføringen, og at de heller ikke denne gangen blir kvitt Hamas. Det er nå ikke mye igjen (Rafah) for at Hamas’ jerngrep om den palestinske befolkningen endelig kan slippe taket. Det er ikke mange som åpent kan gå ut å si det, men det er i hvert fall noe jeg er hjertens enig i.
Når Israel bygger massive teltleire for å sikkert evakuere den palestinske befolkningen, når de slipper millioner av flygeblad og gjør millioner av robot-telefonsamtaler for å angi sikre områder å flykte til får vi ikke vite det, Når Israel tar store tap ved å sende soldater inn der de bare kunnet bombet alt paddeflat fra 40 000 fots høyde, så nevnes det ikke.
Israel er ikke perfekt. Det er drittsekker i alle land, også i Israel (og i Norge). Israel har begått flere overgrep og gjort store feil opp igjennom årene. Men det israelske samfunnet som helhet jubler ikke når urett begås. Når USA trakk seg ut fra Afghanistan angrep de feil person i et droneangrep og drepte 10 familiemedlemmer og 7 barn. Ingen fikk sparken i det amerikanske forsvaret. Når israelerne derimot bombet en hjelpekonvoi fra World Central Kitchen ved en feiltagelse fikk flere personer i det israelske forsvaret sparken og andre fikk sterke reprimander. Det kom fram at krigere fra Hamas hadde hoppet inn i bilene til hjelpearbeiderne og begynt å skyte mot overvåkningsdronen som fulgte med. Etter at bilene parkerte en stund under et tak tok det israelske forsvaret feil av hvilken bil de angrep når de kom til syne igjen. Israel gir folk sparken og sender folk i fengsel dersom det er nødvendig. Opposisjonen er tydelig og uredd når de ønsker endring. Netanyahu sitter ikke trygt for å si det sånn. Mens det er ingen opposisjon mot Ismail Haniyeh og Hamas-milliardærene som tok tilflukt i Qatar (Moussa Abu Marzuk og Khaled Mashal). Sjelden før i nyere historie har jeg sett klarere eksempel på kamp mellom det gode og det onde. Og Norge svikter jødene igjen.
Krig er grusomt. Gaza-krigen er intet unntak. Jeg prøver på ingen måte å underslå alvoret i at så mange uskyldige palestinere nå lider og har blitt drept. Det er helt klart alt for mange små barn som har blitt drept og lemlestet, grusomme operasjoner av krigsskader som har måttet bli utført uten nødvendige medisiner og anestesi, utallige folk har trolig dødd pga. mangel på medisiner og sanitære forhold. Krig er grusomt. Det er virkelig det. Men mange sivile døde er ikke ensbetydende med at det foregår et folkemord. Og Hamas kan avslutte krigen når som helst, bare de overgir seg og frigir gislene. I gamle dager ville aldri en så teknologisk og militært underlegen styrke angrepet overmakten på samme vis. I gamle dager ville de stridende ha stilt seg opp på et stort jorde (Gettysburg / Waterloo / etc.) og plaffet løs på hverandre, og holdt kulene og kruttet borte fra kvinner, barn og ellers uskyldige sivile. I gamle dager ville den tapende part gitt seg når tapene ble for store. Hovedproblemet nå er at PR-krigen er blitt omtrent like viktig som det militære for strategien (ikke for menneskeskjebnenene selvfølgelig…), og jeg er helt sikker på at Hamas brukte mye tid på å planlegge sin PR-strategi før 7. oktober. Jeg bare bidrar jo til denne PR-krigen med dette alt for lange innlegget, men jeg ser fram til dagen da krigen er slutt. Forhåpentligvis uten Hamas som en ledende maktfaktor for palestinerne.
"Free Palestine - from Hamas!"
Jeg vil til slutt komme med en oppfordring til alle verdens kvinneorganisasjoner om at de bare kan legge ned virksomheten helt. Hykleriet råder. #Metoo gjelder visst ikke israelske kvinner. FNs kvinneorganisasjon "UN Women" bryr seg ikke filla om hva som skjedde 7. oktober. All verdens av feminister som Susan Sarandon jobber aktivt med å fordømme Israel og fornekte overgrepene som ble gjort mot Israelske kvinner og __unge jenter__ på 7. oktober og i månedene etter. Kvinner som støtter Israel fikk heller ikke lov til å delta i 8. mars-toget i Oslo. Dersom man ikke klarer å støtte alle kvinner, uavhengig av religion og tilhørighet, så ser jeg ikke vitsen.
submitted by Minute-Pilot5282 to norge [link] [comments]
Jeg bestemte meg derfor ganske tilfeldig å skrive et innlegg her i dag om konflikten. Det ble altfor langt, og jeg forventer stort sett tommel ned på det fra mine norske medborgere. Men kan jeg i hvert fall be at de som nå allerede er klar for å trykke på tommel ned-ikonet at de leser igjennom innlegget først, så kan dere sable meg ned i kommentarene, og gjøre hva dere vil etterpå, inkl. totalt ignorere meg.
Dersom det mot all formodning er noen som er litt enig med meg, så hadde det vært kjempehyggelig å høre, og mine jødiske venner vil trolig sette stor pris på det. De har ikke noe positivt inntrykk av Norge for tiden, og føler seg veldig alene.
(Jeg skal ikke redigere innlegget annet enn muligens å rette opp i noen skrivefeil.)
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Mitt klare syn er at venstresiden i norsk politikk er i ferd med å la Norge totalt svikte jødene på nytt. Norge har svært få jøder igjen, så det er ikke mange stemmer å hente der. I november 1942 seilte skipet Donau ut fra Oslo havn fylt opp med jøder i retning konsentrasjonsleirene, og Norge hadde nettopp bistått nazistene med å fange jødene og bringe dem til skipet. Berg interneringsleir i Vestfold har også en særdeles mørk historie i denne sammenhengen.
Etter andre verdenskrig i 1947 nektet araberne å godta FNs vedtatte delingsplan (2/3 flertall) for Palestina og sa samtidig at de aldri kom til å godkjenne noen delingsplan overhodet. De mye sterkere arabiske nabolandene gikk deretter sammen til krig mot den ferske miniputtstaten Israel med det mål for øyet at hele Israel skulle bli eliminert fra kartet. Slike kriger gjentok seg med jevne mellomrom, og jødene visste at de hadde intet annet valg enn å vinne. Alternativet hadde vært en total utryddelse av den jødiske stat inkludert de som overlevde Holocaust. Hamas er bare en forlengelse av dette, og det verste er at Hamas faktisk er folkevalgt, og har massiv støtte i den palestinske befolkningen. En palestiner i Libanon ble nylig intervjuet hvor han sa at reporteren ville få vansker med å finne en eneste palestiner som ikke støttet Hamas og 7. oktober.
På den tiden (1947- ) hadde ikke Israel noen sterk alliert i ryggen, mens Egypt og Syria bl.a. hadde støtte fra Sovjetunionen. Fra dette har norsk venstreside, akp/ml og andre marxistesosialister bygget sin støtte til Palestina, og dette er nå så innprentet i det norske etablissementet, at vi har en stor gruppe mennesker som hele sitt liv, fra AUF til stortinget, fra Rød Ungdom til VGs redaksjon (eller Faktisk.no....), eller Palestinakomiteer til lærerjobb i barne- og ungdomsskoler har hatt sitt flagg plantet solid på palestinernes side og ikke engang det verste terrorangrepet i nyere tid, 7. oktober 2023 kunne få dem til å åpne opp øynene. Bare litt over en måned senere tok stortinget opp et forslag fra Rødt om å anerkjenne Palestina som en selvstendig stat. Et forkastelig signal om at terrorisme faktisk lønner seg.
Det er også en stor del av disse som har satset all sin prestisje og bygd sin karriere på at selveste NORGE skal skape fred i Midtøsten, noe som kun folk totalt uten bakkekontakt ser på som noen reell mulighet. Norge har gang på gang feilet som fredsmekler, siden vi rett og slett ikke har noen pressmidler annet ennå kaste penger etter folk. Jeg husker tilbake på et legendarisk intervju i BBC Hardtalk hvor Erik Solheim (SV) ble totalt kledd naken på dette feltet. De som ikke har sett dette intervjuet bør ta en kikk, det er vel verdt det.
Palestina-støtten i Norge er nå så massiv, også blant vanlige folk at jeg ser lite håp til endring. Jeg går rundt og er rasende over at vi på nytt skal begå et historisk svik. Norge har skilt seg markant fra våre nordiske naboer siden 7. oktober. Vi har stemt annerledes i FN, nektet å putte Hamas på listen over terroristorganisasjoner, aldri stoppet støtten til UNRWA, hatt en utenriksminister som konsekvent kritiserer Israel, men sjelden ber Hamas om å frigi gislene eller slutte med sine krigsforbrytelser, ikke tatt en aktiv del i den militære kampen for å forsvare (Norsk) skipsfart i Rødehavet fra Houthienes angrep, etc. etc..
- En av NRKs fremste terroristeksperter, Lars Gule, ble som ung arrestert og dømt til fengsel i Midtøsten da han fraktet eksplosiver for en palestinsk terroristorganisasjon til bruk i terrorangrep mot Israel.
- Vår egen statsminister Støre ble tatt i løgn på TV i et famøst intervju med TV2 der han løy om kontakt med Hamas, en terroristorganisasjon som er på terrorlisten både i USA og EU. Støre prøver deretter å overtale reporteren til å gjøre intervjuet på nytt etter at han ble avslørt, alt mens kameraet ruller.
- Media bruker stadig vekk ekstremister som Mads Gilbert (politiker i Rødt) som sannhetsvitne for det som skjer i Gaza. Han ble tatt i løgn da han sa Hamas ikke hadde tuneller eller aktivitet ved Shifa-sykehuset. Han har offentlig også uttrykt støtte for både 11. september-terrorangrepet i USA og 7. oktober-terrorangrepet i Israel.
- Vi er en av de største donorene til UNRWA, som er en massiv FN-styrt organisasjon med ca. 30000 ansatte eksklusivt for palestinske flyktninger, som omfatter alt mulig fra skoler, til sosialhjelp, nødhjelp, etc. En stor del av pengene vi har betalt inn der har nok dessverre gått til å finansiere terror. I UNRWA's barneskoler indoktrineres de unge til å bli terrorister, og man kan se intervjuer med 6-7-åringer som ivrig forteller hvordan de skal knivstikke, kidnappe, sprenge og kjøre over jøder med bil. Merk at når de snakker om Israel, bruker palestinerne sjelden ordet sionist. De sier det rett ut: Jøde. Vestlige antisemitter har blitt smartere og bruker konsekvent ordet "sionist", men det er lett å gjennomskue hva mange av dem tenker på. UNRWA-utstyr er blitt funnet i terrortunnellene (mer enn 500 km tunell har de bygd, opptil 40 meter under bakken). Terrortuneller er funnet under UNRWA hovedkvarteret. Gisler er holdt til fange av UNRWA-ansatte. Israel har delt bevis med FN på at minst 12 UNRWA ansatte deltok aktivt i terrorangrepet 7. oktober (sammen med fotografer ansatt i Reuters og Associated Press ...). Man kan se videoer fra "juleavslutning" i UNRWA's barneskoler hvor elevene spiller teater som gjenskaper gisseltagning av jøder hvor de små barna er kledd opp i militæruniformer og har automatgevær og kniver som en del av kostymet. 8000 UNRWA-ansatte ga sin støtte til at en kjent Hamas-terrorist skulle bli leder i fagforeningen sin, etc. etc.
Problemet med UNRWA og FNs holdning til Palestina er at de har gitt palestinerne en eksklusiv rett til å arve flyktningstatus. Ingen andre flyktninggrupper i verden har en slik rettighet. Selv en 5-generasjons palestinsk "flyktning" som reiser til USA og blir en suksessrik kirurg der er også på livstid teknisk sett en flyktning, så vel som barna hans. UNRWA selv vil bli nedlagt dersom palestinerne noen gang får orden på samfunnet sitt, så det er null insentiv og motivasjon for virkelig å gjøre ting bedre. Palestinerne selv sier at de er sterkere enn fienden, fordi de kjemper for døden, mens israelerne kjemper for livet. En mor som hadde sendt 3 av sine sønner i døden som selvmordsbombere ble valgt inn i parlamentet på grunn av dette. På TV sitter palestisnke kvinner og argumenterer for at palestinske terrorister har rett til å voldta kvinnelige israelske gisler. Palestinske myndigheter betaler en slags "NAV-trygd" til familiemedlemmer av terrorister som blir satt i fengsel av Israel. De månedlige utbetalingene er ikke like, men størrelsen blir bestemt av hvor grusomt og dødelig terroren var, lengden på fengselsstraffen, etc. UNRWA og FNs holdning til Palestina er en eviggående mekanisme som opprettholder all elendigheten for både palestinere og israelere på ubestemt tid.
FNs medlemsland inneholder en rekke land som totalt ønsker å utslette Israel fra kartet, en rekke land som konsekvent stemmer mot det USA og deres allierte ønsker, en haug med antisemitter, nasjoner som Norge som er mer opptatt av å framstå som "de gode" til å sette seg inn i hva slags problemer Israel reelt sett står overfor. Ledelsen i FN har blitt kritisert for å ha blitt infiltrert av alt for mange med anti-israelske holdninger, deriblant selve generalsekretæren i FN, António Guterres, og "Special Rapporteur" Francesca Albanese (som tidligere har jobbet for UNRWA). Når Guterres ytret det famøse sitatet om at 7. oktober "ikke skjedde i et vakuum" gikk det et kaldt gufs nedover ryggen på meg. Bare tenk deg om han hadde sagt det samme om Anders Behring Breivik.
Det er totalt utenkelig at en slik uttalelse kunne kommet om et lignende terrorangrep dersom ikke Israel var offeret. Hamas sendte 7. oktober flere tusen av "Anders Behring Breiviker" dopet på Captagon over grensen for å utføre en udåd flere ganger verre en Bataclan og Utøya lagt til sammen. Hadde det skjedd oss hadde vi ikke inntatt en så ekstremt hyklersk holdning som vi har nå. Det verste er at mange av de aller verste torturscenene utspant seg når Gazas sivilbefolkning rykket inn kibbutzene i etterkant. Alle de som har sett videoen av den unge tyske kvinnen Shani Louk’s forvrengte og knapt påkledde lik ligge på et lasteplan gjennom Gazas gater, mens en jublende folkemengde sparker og slår løs på hennes døde kropp av full kraft vil aldri glemme det.
FN har til nå ikke klart å vedta en fordømmelse av terrorangrepet 7. oktober. Tenk over det.
Flere popartister som Alicia Keys postet gladelig referanser til paragliding dagene etter terrorangrepet. Keys skrev følgende på Instagram (en post hun senere har slettet):
"What would u do if you weren’t afraid of anything??? Tell me your truth…. I’ve had my eyes on paragliding…"
Til opplysning så fløy Hamas-terrorister inn med paraglidere og angrep musikkfestivalen Nova, og drepte over 260 festivaldeltagere der. Mange av festivaldeltagerne var folk som hadde flydd inn fra utlandet for å delta på festivalen. Øyenvitner fortalte om groteske gruppevoldtektsscener, der offeret gradvis ble hakket i hjel mens det seksuelle overgrepet foregikk.
For de som hevder at Israel kun er "okkupanter" og ikke har noe i det området å gjøre så anbefaler jeg å ta en kikk på historien. Jødene var der først, over 3000 år siden. Før ordet Palestina ble skapt. Før religionen Islam ble skapt. Det har aldri i historien eksistert noen Palestinsk konge, nasjon eller stat. Forskjellige makter har byttet på å ha kontrollen over området (romere, grekere, tyrkere, briter...) Andre arabiske land ser ikke en gang på Palestinerne som ordentlige arabere, men innflyttere fra diverse klaner og geografiske områder. Alle som hevder dette kun er en strid om land har ikke forstått at dette i stor grad er en religiøst og ideologisk motivert krig, som har vart i hundrevis av år, der palestinernes sak svært ofte har blitt (mis)brukt av andre i deres kamp mot enten jøder eller kapitalisme generelt. Sjekk ut Balfour-erklæringen. Sjekk ut det britiske mandatet for Palestina, satt i gang av forgjengeren til FN (League of Nations). Sjekk ut Peel-kommisjonen. Sjekk ut Hebron-massakren i 1929. Sammenlign Jordans flagg med Palestinas flagg. Sjekk mynter fra det britiske palestinske mandatets tid på 1920-tallet der det står "Palestine - Land of Israel" på hebraisk. Israel har også sine svin på skogen (Haganah, bl.a.), men de har utviklet samfunnet sitt i en positiv retning, mens Palestina ikke skaper mye annet enn død og elendighet for andre og ikke minst seg selv. Jeg er sterkt kritisk til mange av de nyere Israelske bosetterne som har kommet til de siste årene, så Israel er langt fra perfekt. Men de som ikke skjønner den historiske grunnen til israelske bosetninger vil aldri kunne forstå konflikten fullt ut. Israel har fra dets fødsel vært angrepet fra sine naboer, noe vi i fredelige Norge aldri kan klare å leve oss inn i. Tenk deg der du bor, kanskje det er på Hamar, kanskje det er i Tromsø ... 3 km unna bor det tusenvis av mennesker som, hvis de får tak i deg, vil drepe deg på det mest bestialske vis som man kan tenke seg, seksuell vold, øyer skåret ut, avkapping av kjønnsorganer, levende amputasjon av armer og ben, organer revet ut av kroppen med bare hender, og folk bundet sammen med piggtråd og brent levende. Alt mens de bruker din egen mobil til å live-streame torturen og drapet til dine venner og familiemedlemmer.
De som ikke har sett alle videoene fra 7. oktober plikter seg selv å gjøre dette, selv om det trolig vil gå ut over sjelefreden din for evig tid. De bestialske handlingene ble dokumentert av Hamas selv, og de er ille nok, men det som er mest skremmende for meg er den ekstreme gleden de utviser når de utfører grusomhetene. Latteren. Gjentatte rop "Allahu Akbar". Telefon hjem til mor og far i Gaza hvor man stolt skryter av hva man har gjort.
Gaza var slett ikke okkupert av Israel 7. oktober i fjor. Israelerne trakk seg helt ut fra Gaza i 2005 (samt fra bosetninger i Samara). Den Israelske hæren dro med seg alle israelere som ikke ville dra etter håret, og til og med israelske gravplasser ble gravd opp og alle israelske levninger ble tatt med tilbake til Israel, da det var kjent fra tidligere tilbaketrekninger i Libanon at palestinerne gravde opp gravene og skjendet likene dersom de fikk anledning til å gjøre dette. Etter at Israel hadde trukket seg ut sto Gaza helt klart for all verdens av muligheter. Israelerne etterlot blant annet en industri med over 3000 høyteknologiske drivhus som palestinerne selv så for seg at de kunne utnytte for å bygge opp en egen eksportindustri, og ved kysten så folk for seg at palestinerne kunne gjøre det stort innenfor turisme, og skape sitt eget lille Dubai og utvikle samfunnet sitt i positiv retning. Palestinerne derimot valgte terroristorganisasjonen Hamas med et stort flertall i valget, knuste og robbet alle drivhusene og etter brutale stridigheter mellom Hamas og den Palestinske selvstyremyndigheten begynte de å bygge et gigantisk nettverk av terror-tuneller, de gravde opp vannrør fra bakken for å bygge raketter, og de plasserte militære enheter i alt som finnes av skoler, moskeer, sykehus og barnehager. Når Hamas driver med krigføring mot Israel brytes ALT av krigens lover. Det kjempes i sivile klær, sivile tas som gisler, sykehus og lignende brukes til militær virksomhet, raketter skytes blindt ut mot israels sivilbefolkning, sine egne borgere brukes som menneskelige skjold. Men i Vesten er det stort sett Israel som skal kritiseres ...
Det er er en stor tabbe å konsekvent anse den svake part som den gode, og den sterke part som den onde.
De største forkjempere for Palestina utenfor Gaza er jihadister, marxistesosialister og folk med antisemittiske holdninger, samt en hel generasjon med forvirrede unge på TikTok - en sosial media plattform som er eid og styrt fra Kina, men IKKE er tilgjengelig i Kina! (jeg har hørt alle unnskyldningene hvorfor, men faktum er at TikTok ikke er tilgjengelig i Kina). TikTok er en gigantisk påvirkningsmekanisme og etterretningsverktøy som heldigvis folk begynner å få øynene opp for.
Da Rødt-politikeren Mads Gilbert uttrykte støtte for 7. oktober angrepet var han i Sør-Afrika. Der snakket han litt for mye "rett fra levra" og skjønte ikke at alt han sa ble viderefortalt til resten av verden. Det er ikke en tilfeldighet at det er Sør-Afrika som har kommet med beskyldninger om folkemord i Gaza. De er en kjent alliert av Hamas. De fleste andre siviliserte land vi sammenligner oss med har forsvart Israel i denne saken, bl.a. Tyskland, USA og Storbritannia. Dersom du tror at Haag-domstolen har erklært at det er et folkemord som skjer i Gaza, så har du blitt lurt av manipulative overskrifter. 1300 advokater i Storbritannia skrev nylig under på et brev til regjeringen der det påpekes at omtalen av hva Haag-domstolen sa i januar ikke er korrekt. De har ikke engang begynt å undersøke saken, og dersom det kommer en avgjørelse så vil ikke det skje på mange år.
FN selv har sagt at typisk 90% av de som dør i moderne kriger i urbane strøk er sivile, altså en faktor på 9:1 mellom sivile og kjempende. Selv dersom vi skulle tro på Hamas' egne tall for antall døde (vi gjorde ikke det samme med ISIS), så er faktoren i denne konflikten kun 1,5 til 1. Et enestående resultat når man ser at krigføringen som gjøres er i tett befolkede urbane strøk, og at Hamas har som hovedstrategi å benytte sin egen befolkning som menneskelige skjold for å utøve press på verdensopinionen. Hamas-ledere med milliardformue sitter trygt i Qatar og sier på TV at sivilbefolkningen IKKE får lov til å søke ly i det over 500 km lange tunnelsystemet Hamas har bygget over flere år, bl.a. med bistandsmidler Norge har sendt. Hamas' eneste sjanse for å overleve denne konflikten er å få opp tallene på døde av sin egen sivilbefolkning for å få opp det internasjonale presset på Israel fra nyttige idioter og antisemitter i Vesten, slik at Biden skal bli tvunget til å tvinge Israel til å stoppe. Biden er livredd for å tape valget i november og flere topp-demokrater (Schumer og Pelosi) har offentlig bedt Israel kaste regjeringen og inngå våpenhvileavtaler, selv når amerikanske borgere fortsatt sitter som gisler i Gaza. Det VAR våpenhvile i Gaza morgenen 7. oktober, 2023. Hamas brøt den.
Dersom du tror Israel er en apartheid-stat så tror du også på julenissen. Amnesty International er en av gruppene som påstår dette, men Amnesty er ikke det Amnesty jeg trodde vi hadde når jeg gikk på skolen som ung. De uttrykte nylig støtte til en Palestinsk terrorist (Walid Daqqa) som døde av kreft i fengsel, og omtalte ham kun som en "forfatter". De glemte å nevne at han hadde ledet gjengen som torturerte en ung 19-årig israeler (Moshe Tamam) til døde over flere dager, og bla. skåret ut øynene hans og kappet av kjønnsorganene, alt mens den unge mannen levde. Tamam ble til slutt skutt.
Jeg har sett folk bruke begrepet "fengsel under åpen himmel" om Israels blokade av Gaza. Jeg har aldri før hørt om et fengsel hvor fangevokterne kontroller kun 3 av 4 vegger. Egypt har en lang grense mot sør-siden av Gaza (Rafah-området). En grense de har gjort sitt ytterste for å stenge slik at ikke en eneste palestiner får flyktet fra krigssonen. Egypt (og Jordan) har veldig lite til overs for palestinernes sak generelt, med tanke på at Hamas er en avlegger av det islamske brorskap som har skapt mye elendighet i Egypt. Jordan har også hatt sine problemer med palestinere, bl.a. da en palestiner drepte Kong Abdullah I i 1951. I stedet for at Egypt setter av et område ved grensen der sivile fra Gaza kan unnslippe krigshandlingene, har de i stedet bygget en ekstra dobbelt mur for å hermetisk stenge palestinerne inne. Bare tenk dersom ingen ukrainere hadde fått forlate Bakhmut. Vi har alle sett bildene derfra. Når Russland innvaderte Ukraina i 2022 åpnet Europa sine dører og millioner av ukrainere er nå i sikkerhet mens krigen raser i hjemlandet.
Kritikken av Israels sikkerhetstiltak mot palestinsk terrorisme faller på sin egen urimelighet når man innser at sikkerhetstiltakene langt fra var sterke nok. Israel ble totalt overumplet 7. oktober, 2023. Angrepet ble også utført av arbeidere fra Gaza som hadde tillatelse til å jobbe i Israel og brukte dette til å utføre etterretning på forhånd slik at angrepet skulle bli så vellyket som mulig. De angrep også kibbutzer som inneholdt svært mange palestinsk-vennlige israelere, som bl.a. jobber for å sørge for helsehjelp i Israel til folk i Gaza og som politisk var helt på venstresiden av israelsk politikk. De har nå endret syn på saken - de som overlevde.
Israel er det eneste demokratiet i Midtøsten. Det er over 2 millioner arabere som bor i Israel med helt like rettigheter som andre innbyggere. De kjemper sammen med andre israelere i forsvaret. En arabisk høyesterettsdommer dømte en tidligere Israelsk statsminister til fengsel for noen år siden. Alle trafikkskilt er på Hebraisk, Arabisk og Engelsk. LGBT-mennesker kan leve fritt i Israel, og kvinner og menn er likeverdige. Israel har religionsfrihet, en fri presse, frie valg og en sterk politisk opposisjon. Dersom man skal snakke om folkemord og etnisk retning så ta en kikk på hvor mange jøder som bor i resten av Midtøsten og arabiske land nå om dagen sammenlignet med før. Israel er knøttlite sammenlignet med den arabiske verdenen, og stort sett alt av jøder har blitt kastet ut eller flyktet fra arabiske land. Flere arabiske land nekter også israelere innreise.
Israel tar ikke gisler slik Palestinerne gjør. Den nåværende Hamas-lederen Ismail Haniyeh fikk livreddende kreftbehandling av israelske kirurger når han satt i israelsk fengsel, og ble senere sluppet fri. Flere av de palestinske fangene som har blitt sluppet fri i de nylige fangeutvekslingene satt i fengsel pga. voldelige angrep og terroristvirksomhet, mens på den annen siden Hamas' gisler i Gaza er totalt uskyldige sivile, fra under 1 år gamle babyer (fortsatt ikke satt fri) til 80-åringer, folk med amputerte armer og skuddskader sitter fanget i mørke og skitne terrortuneller og kvinner blir utsatt for seksuelle overgrep. Når det snakkes om palestinske "barn" i israelske fengsler så er det som regel snakk om 15-17-åringer som har gått til dødelige angrep mot israelere. Merk at Storbritannia har en kriminell lavalder på 10 år. Knivstikking, skyting, sprengning og påkjøring med bil er vanlig, men også steinkasting. Dersom du mener steinkasting er barnelek, så oppfordrer jeg deg til å stille deg opp på fortauet mens du lar en 17-åring kaste en stor stein i hodet på deg av all makt. Kom tilbake til meg med bilder og en fortelling om hvor artig du synes det var (dersom du overlever).
Vi sitter her i trygge Norge og er ekstremt hyklerske i forhold til denne konflikten. Vi klarer ikke å ta inn over oss jødenes situasjon. Det er helt ekstremt å se jøder i alle vestlige byer i Europa og USA være redde for å gå ut på gaten og å gå på skole og universitet. Mediene i Norge filtrerer ut en hel masse. De er profesjonelle manipulatorer, men også del av et bittelite journalistisk miljø så de er redde for å skille seg ut. De lyver sjelden rett ut, men den aller største synden journalister gjør er at de kun nevner ting de "synes passer". Alt annet blir gjemt bort og feid under teppet. Manipulativ bildebruk, overskrift og presentasjon er også svært vanlig. Det samme er det å ringe rundt til man til slutt finner en "ekspert" som sier det journalisten ønsker de skal si, og disse blir ofte gjengangere i spaltene. Vi pleier å le av russere som har blitt hjernevasket gjennom statskanalene hele livet til å godta alt av galskap Putin bringer landet. Vi er ikke noe bedre selv. Du skulle bare visst hvor mye antisemittisme og åpenlys støtte for terror som skjer rundtomkring i Europa og USA nå om dagen. Jeg er en ateist, men jeg selv føler en frykt på jødenes vegne, men kan vanskelig klare å sette meg inn i hvordan det er for dem å ikke tørre å bevege seg rundt i London, eller når universitet de går på i New York ikke klarer å sikre deres tilværelse, så det blir lagt opp til at de skal ta utdanningen sin hjemme over Zoom.
De aller fleste nordmenn har heller ikke skjønt Irans rolle i alt dette, siden de aldri har lært om det på skolen eller kunne lese om det i avisene. Israel blir angrepet fra alle himmelretninger, og det som er felles for disse terrorgruppene er at de alle sponses, trenes og får våpenstøtte av Iran. Ayatollahene i Iran prøver så godt de kan å skaffe seg atomvåpen, og har flere ganger offentlig sagt at målet er å totalt utslette Israel. Når norske folk tror at de siste stridighetene startet med angrepet på bygget ved siden av den Iranske ambassaden i Damaskus 1. april, så har de ikke skjønt hva som skjer. Iran har drevet en skyggekrig på Israel og USA i årevis. Når USA gikk inn i Pakistan og drepte Osama bin Laden, så var det ikke snakk om at New York, Los Angeles, Miami og Houston skulle teppebombes med 330+ droner, kryssermissiler og ballistiske missiler. Generalene fra IRGC / Quds-styrken som ble drept i Damaskus har vært aktivt med å planlegge og tilrettelegge angrep på Israel både før og etter 7. oktober. Når USA drepte Qasem Soleimani med samme motivasjon så var det ikke noen fordømmelse av det. Wien-konvensjonen legger sterke bånd på vertsnasjonen (Syria) til å ikke angripe ambassaden, men sier ingenting om at andre land ikke kan angripe, og det var ikke engang ambassadebygningen som ble truffet, men en bygning ved siden av som har lenge blitt brukt til militære formål i Irans proxy-krig mot Israel via Hezbollah, Hamas og Houthiene.
Prestestyret i Iran er ikke Iran. Det er massiv mostand mot ayatollahene internt i Iran og blant folk som har flyktet fra Iran etter revolusjonen i 1979. Ayatollahene fører en PR krig der de prøver å dreie denne mostanden til å kun dreie seg om en sak: Hijaben. Dette er ille nok, men det opposisjonen i Iran kjemper mot er mye, mye mer enn kun en sak. Irans regime utfører horrible overgrep mot egen befolkning. Når arrangørene av en fotballkamp i Iran reiste det palestinske flagget på en fotballkamp i fjor, ropte det iranske publikummet høylytt sammen at de som gjorde dette "kunne ta det flagget og skyve det opp i ræva si". Jeg har med skrekk og gru sett nordmenn uttrykke støtte for prestestyret i Iran etter 1. april i år. Grunnen til dette er ikke at de er på iranernes side, ihvertfall ikke folket i Iran, men at de er fiendtlig innstilt overfor Israel. Kanskje de selv egentlig ikke vet hvorfor.
De samme folkene gikk ikke i protesttog når millioner ble fordrevet i Syria og over 500 000 drept der, med over 110 000 drepte på kun ett år. De gikk ikke i protesttog når Mosul eller Raqqa ble totalt smadret. Når Pakistan utviser 1,6 millioner afghanere og sender dem tilbake til en uviss fremtid under Taliban er det ingen her hjemme som reagerer. Det ble heller ikke noe protesttog når hundrevis av kristne ble massakrert julen 2023 i Nigeria. Sudan-krigen... who cares? Folk fra Kina blir ikke angrepet på gaten her i Europa selv om Kina begår overgrep mot Uigurene. Hashtaggen #NoJewsNoNews er særdeles klingende, og det betyr at så lenge ikke jødene er involvert, så bryr ikke folk seg filla over all elendigheten som skjer i verden. Man kan spørre seg selv hvorfor.
Under den siste Oscar-utdelingen gikk en rekke Hollywood-stjerner med en pin til støtte for Palestina. Symbolet var en rød håndflate. Dette er en referanse til et grusomt overgrep som ble utført på to israelere i Ramallah i 2000 under den andre intifadaen. De tok feil av veien og forvillet seg inn på feil område, og ble angrepet av en stor lynsjemobb. Politiet grep inn og fikk de i sikkerhet i fengselet, men lynsjemobben brøt seg inn og drepte de to israelerne på det mest bestialske vis. Enkelte politifolk var også med på drapet. Det er et veldig kjent foto fra denne dagen hvor en av morderne lener seg ut av et vindu på politistasjonen og viser sine hender til den jublende og ekstatiske folkemengden utenfor. Håndflatene er helt røde av blod. Mannen på bildet med de røde hendene ble senere fanget av Israel, men ble sluppet fri som en del av avtalen hvor det israelske gisselet Gilad Shalit ble frigitt i 2011 etter 5 års fangenskap (og 0 besøk fra Røde Kors etter Geneve-konvensjons regler) i bytte mot 1027 palestinske fanger. Disse frigitte fangene var sammen ansvarlige for 569 døde israelere. Når Hamas gikk til angrep 7. oktober håpet de kanskje på samme bytteforhold?
Faktisk.no er en av de ekstremt få vestlige medieorganisasjonen som ennå ikke har konkludert med hva som skjedde når det oppsto en eksplosjon ved Al-Ahli sykehuset 17. oktober i fjor. Omtrent samtlige etablerte medier gikk raskt ut og erklærte at israelerne hadde bombet sykehuset og at om lag 500 sivile hadde blitt drept, i et sykehus som var i ferd med å rase sammen. Sannheten viste seg å være at et palestinsk missil hadde feilet (de har en særdeles høy feilprosent og dreper mange av sine egne når de faller ned) og landet på parkeringsplassen på sykehuset og drepte dusinvis av mennesker, ikke hundrevis. Bildene viser at det umulig kan ha vært en flybombe fra det israelske luftforsvaret. "Krateret" som er avbildet er ikke større enn en fotball, og skadene ser ut til å våre forårsaket av en eksplosjonsartet brann, i motsetning til skader fra høyekplosiver. Raketten som feilet var full av drivstoff siden den akkurat hadde blitt skutt opp, og dette tok fyr når raketten landet på parkeringsplassen. Flere videoer og radar-analyser viser at prosjektilet kom fra palestinsk side. På samme måte som i Ukraine overvåker vestlig etteretning alt som skjer kontinuerlig ved hjeklp av radar. Fransk, tysk, kanadisk, britisk og amerikanske etterretningsorganisasjoner har konkludert med at det var palestinerne selv som stod bak. Dødstallene var feil. Lokasjonen var feil. Skadeomfanget var feil. Men den politisk og PR-messige skaden var allerede skjedd. Den massive og feilaktige presseomtalen spolerte totalt Bidens tur til Midtøsten og han fikk ikke hatt møtene som var avtalt og ingenting ble oppnådd. Israel har også publisert lydopptak fra avlyttede telefoner som inneholder diskusjoner hvor palestinerne snakker seg imellom at de traff feil sted. En arrestert palestiner snakker ut i en forhørsvideo som er offentlig publisert om hvordan deres globale mediestrategi er, og hvor vellykket dette var i Al-Ahli tilfellet. Påstander om at det var Iron Dome som var skyld i eksplosjonen kan umulig stemme, da Iron Dome raketter er programmert til å treffe rakettene på vei ned i Israel, ikke rett etter at de er skutt opp inne i Gaza. Det er ikke lenger noen rimelig tvil om hva som skjedde, men Faktisk.no "vet fortsatt ikke sikkert".
Nylig ble det avdekket massegraver ved et sykehus i Gaza (Nasser). På akkurat samme måte blir historien fra Hamas’ pressefolk ukritisk sirkulert i alle verdens aviser, og når det viser seg at det var en massegrav palestinerne selv gravde og la ut videoer av mens de gjorde det, kommer det ikke noe faktasjekk om dette på Faktisk.no eller korreksjon i norske medier. Den store løgnen ligger i alt som ikke blir nevnt.
Når palestinerne selv legger ut videoer at de går rundt på markeder i Gaza hvor det er mer enn nok med mat, så kommer ikke dette på førstesiden i VG eller Dagbladet. Når eksperter kritiserer satelittanalyser av ødelagte bygg i Gaza der det brukes lavoppløselige satellittbilder av dårlig kvalitet og eksperimentelle AI algoritmer for å gjette seg fram til hvor mye av Gaza som er bombet, så får flesteparten av Norges befolkning ikke vite om det.
Jeg har også vært i kontakt med flere palestinere som er redd for at verdensopinionen nå kommer til å stoppe krigføringen, og at de heller ikke denne gangen blir kvitt Hamas. Det er nå ikke mye igjen (Rafah) for at Hamas’ jerngrep om den palestinske befolkningen endelig kan slippe taket. Det er ikke mange som åpent kan gå ut å si det, men det er i hvert fall noe jeg er hjertens enig i.
Når Israel bygger massive teltleire for å sikkert evakuere den palestinske befolkningen, når de slipper millioner av flygeblad og gjør millioner av robot-telefonsamtaler for å angi sikre områder å flykte til får vi ikke vite det, Når Israel tar store tap ved å sende soldater inn der de bare kunnet bombet alt paddeflat fra 40 000 fots høyde, så nevnes det ikke.
Israel er ikke perfekt. Det er drittsekker i alle land, også i Israel (og i Norge). Israel har begått flere overgrep og gjort store feil opp igjennom årene. Men det israelske samfunnet som helhet jubler ikke når urett begås. Når USA trakk seg ut fra Afghanistan angrep de feil person i et droneangrep og drepte 10 familiemedlemmer og 7 barn. Ingen fikk sparken i det amerikanske forsvaret. Når israelerne derimot bombet en hjelpekonvoi fra World Central Kitchen ved en feiltagelse fikk flere personer i det israelske forsvaret sparken og andre fikk sterke reprimander. Det kom fram at krigere fra Hamas hadde hoppet inn i bilene til hjelpearbeiderne og begynt å skyte mot overvåkningsdronen som fulgte med. Etter at bilene parkerte en stund under et tak tok det israelske forsvaret feil av hvilken bil de angrep når de kom til syne igjen. Israel gir folk sparken og sender folk i fengsel dersom det er nødvendig. Opposisjonen er tydelig og uredd når de ønsker endring. Netanyahu sitter ikke trygt for å si det sånn. Mens det er ingen opposisjon mot Ismail Haniyeh og Hamas-milliardærene som tok tilflukt i Qatar (Moussa Abu Marzuk og Khaled Mashal). Sjelden før i nyere historie har jeg sett klarere eksempel på kamp mellom det gode og det onde. Og Norge svikter jødene igjen.
Krig er grusomt. Gaza-krigen er intet unntak. Jeg prøver på ingen måte å underslå alvoret i at så mange uskyldige palestinere nå lider og har blitt drept. Det er helt klart alt for mange små barn som har blitt drept og lemlestet, grusomme operasjoner av krigsskader som har måttet bli utført uten nødvendige medisiner og anestesi, utallige folk har trolig dødd pga. mangel på medisiner og sanitære forhold. Krig er grusomt. Det er virkelig det. Men mange sivile døde er ikke ensbetydende med at det foregår et folkemord. Og Hamas kan avslutte krigen når som helst, bare de overgir seg og frigir gislene. I gamle dager ville aldri en så teknologisk og militært underlegen styrke angrepet overmakten på samme vis. I gamle dager ville de stridende ha stilt seg opp på et stort jorde (Gettysburg / Waterloo / etc.) og plaffet løs på hverandre, og holdt kulene og kruttet borte fra kvinner, barn og ellers uskyldige sivile. I gamle dager ville den tapende part gitt seg når tapene ble for store. Hovedproblemet nå er at PR-krigen er blitt omtrent like viktig som det militære for strategien (ikke for menneskeskjebnenene selvfølgelig…), og jeg er helt sikker på at Hamas brukte mye tid på å planlegge sin PR-strategi før 7. oktober. Jeg bare bidrar jo til denne PR-krigen med dette alt for lange innlegget, men jeg ser fram til dagen da krigen er slutt. Forhåpentligvis uten Hamas som en ledende maktfaktor for palestinerne.
"Free Palestine - from Hamas!"
Jeg vil til slutt komme med en oppfordring til alle verdens kvinneorganisasjoner om at de bare kan legge ned virksomheten helt. Hykleriet råder. #Metoo gjelder visst ikke israelske kvinner. FNs kvinneorganisasjon "UN Women" bryr seg ikke filla om hva som skjedde 7. oktober. All verdens av feminister som Susan Sarandon jobber aktivt med å fordømme Israel og fornekte overgrepene som ble gjort mot Israelske kvinner og __unge jenter__ på 7. oktober og i månedene etter. Kvinner som støtter Israel fikk heller ikke lov til å delta i 8. mars-toget i Oslo. Dersom man ikke klarer å støtte alle kvinner, uavhengig av religion og tilhørighet, så ser jeg ikke vitsen.
2024.04.23 19:00 New-Road2588 Friend Turned Pedo
So this was back in 2011 and I still think about it to this day and I felt that this community would be best to share so here goes;
I had this former friend, who's going by Matthew for this story, I met back in 5th grade elementary. He was an oddball to say the least and for some time, I hanged out with him because at the time he wasn't exactly dangerous material. He did have a rough patch with his mother and sister at the time.
However, when he and I got into middle school, he started showing me some inappropriate photos, mainly Pokémon hentai (it was anything involving Misty and beastiality) and I kept telling him to stop showing them to me and I eventually lost interest in Pokémon entirely because he frequently kept showing them. He did stop showing them to me but he still kept printing more of them and keeping them in his folder.
I should've ended my friendship then and there but for some reason, I assumed it was a phase he would eventually break out of. Unfortunately, I was wrong. He got worse about it in high school, going onto proxy websites and printing out more of Misty with the Pokémon.
Then when it came to my senior year in high school, with me being 18 almost 19 (got held back once by my former guidance counselor), I went to hang out with him outside of high school, as I figured I wouldn't be able to once I graduated, and he actually had stopped that year on the photo printings so I began to think that maybe he finally grew out of it.
Well, one day I went walking with him and his cousin (who was an 11 year old girl at the time) tagged along.
He and I were having a regular conversation for the most part, with me talking about some novel I was writing at the time and being excited about it as well as talking of ideas of attending college and playing sports for the fun of it and making new friends.
Then suddenly, out of the blues, Matthew asked me the one question I never expected to ever hear from him out of all people; "Will you go out with my cousin?"
The only cousins of his that I've met was the 11 year old girl and her brother and when I asked him what cousin, hoping it wasn't who I thought it was, it turned out it was the 11 year old.
Immediately I blurted out "HELL NO" and went to go to point out she's way too young but I didn't get the chance because Matthew immediately yelled "PLEASE?!" in what actually sounded like a desperate tone of voice, something I've never heard from him before.
Granted, he's always had trouble taking "no" for an answer to anything over the years and all those years when I told him no to things he asked and he starts begging, he usually had a whiny tone or a pity tone and he eventually gives up before throwing a fit about not getting his way.
But this time, he sounded very desperate, like something bad would happen if I didn't do what he asked kind of desperate, and he stood his ground. He kept insisting I date his cousin, only for me to finally get my argument in and point out that she's too young and I have a future planned out for me and I wasn't going to risk it. He proceeded to claim he wanted me to be his cousin but I refused.
He then tried bribing me, at first with money (even large amounts) but I didn't value money so he tried bribing me with other things. The final piece of bribery was video games. I'm a gamer, still am, but I still refused even when he said I could play without any time limitations.
I still refused but at that point my fists were starting to clench and anger was starting to swell up.
His cousin finally spoke in and said she wasn't interested in me "anyways" and he just looked at me with a silent yet disappointed face. I decided to go home right away because of the situation and how I was uncomfortable. I blamed myself for not seeing it sooner but I was also super pissed because when I thought he was finally growing up, he suddenly hit a new low.
I ran into him at school the next day and I threatened to end his life slowly and painfully (can't remember exactly what I said in violently graphic detail) if I ever caught him anywhere near ANY of my family. He looked confused and wanted to know what was my problem until I reminded him of what happened the previous day.
Matthew didn't even try to deny or pretend it didn't happen. Instead, he yelled in that same desperate tone "YOU COULD'VE BEEN PLAYING VIDEO GAMES ALL YOU WANTED! WE COULD'VE BEEN COUSINS!" I reminded him that I had a future planned and I wasn't going to throw it away for even that. That was the last time we ever talked or hanged out again.
Then about a year or two later after I graduated, I found out from another friend of mind that Matthew got arrested for "presenting obscene material to a minor" and is now a registered SO.
To this day, I kept thinking of all the worst that could've happened, ranging from ones where he would've tried passing the blame onto me (like he did when he shattered my brother's flower pots) and get me in trouble to me possibly winding up in prison for murder.
He's also been back in jail for the same charges and he's also been in prison.
submitted by New-Road2588 to dodgedabullet [link] [comments]
I had this former friend, who's going by Matthew for this story, I met back in 5th grade elementary. He was an oddball to say the least and for some time, I hanged out with him because at the time he wasn't exactly dangerous material. He did have a rough patch with his mother and sister at the time.
However, when he and I got into middle school, he started showing me some inappropriate photos, mainly Pokémon hentai (it was anything involving Misty and beastiality) and I kept telling him to stop showing them to me and I eventually lost interest in Pokémon entirely because he frequently kept showing them. He did stop showing them to me but he still kept printing more of them and keeping them in his folder.
I should've ended my friendship then and there but for some reason, I assumed it was a phase he would eventually break out of. Unfortunately, I was wrong. He got worse about it in high school, going onto proxy websites and printing out more of Misty with the Pokémon.
Then when it came to my senior year in high school, with me being 18 almost 19 (got held back once by my former guidance counselor), I went to hang out with him outside of high school, as I figured I wouldn't be able to once I graduated, and he actually had stopped that year on the photo printings so I began to think that maybe he finally grew out of it.
Well, one day I went walking with him and his cousin (who was an 11 year old girl at the time) tagged along.
He and I were having a regular conversation for the most part, with me talking about some novel I was writing at the time and being excited about it as well as talking of ideas of attending college and playing sports for the fun of it and making new friends.
Then suddenly, out of the blues, Matthew asked me the one question I never expected to ever hear from him out of all people; "Will you go out with my cousin?"
The only cousins of his that I've met was the 11 year old girl and her brother and when I asked him what cousin, hoping it wasn't who I thought it was, it turned out it was the 11 year old.
Immediately I blurted out "HELL NO" and went to go to point out she's way too young but I didn't get the chance because Matthew immediately yelled "PLEASE?!" in what actually sounded like a desperate tone of voice, something I've never heard from him before.
Granted, he's always had trouble taking "no" for an answer to anything over the years and all those years when I told him no to things he asked and he starts begging, he usually had a whiny tone or a pity tone and he eventually gives up before throwing a fit about not getting his way.
But this time, he sounded very desperate, like something bad would happen if I didn't do what he asked kind of desperate, and he stood his ground. He kept insisting I date his cousin, only for me to finally get my argument in and point out that she's too young and I have a future planned out for me and I wasn't going to risk it. He proceeded to claim he wanted me to be his cousin but I refused.
He then tried bribing me, at first with money (even large amounts) but I didn't value money so he tried bribing me with other things. The final piece of bribery was video games. I'm a gamer, still am, but I still refused even when he said I could play without any time limitations.
I still refused but at that point my fists were starting to clench and anger was starting to swell up.
His cousin finally spoke in and said she wasn't interested in me "anyways" and he just looked at me with a silent yet disappointed face. I decided to go home right away because of the situation and how I was uncomfortable. I blamed myself for not seeing it sooner but I was also super pissed because when I thought he was finally growing up, he suddenly hit a new low.
I ran into him at school the next day and I threatened to end his life slowly and painfully (can't remember exactly what I said in violently graphic detail) if I ever caught him anywhere near ANY of my family. He looked confused and wanted to know what was my problem until I reminded him of what happened the previous day.
Matthew didn't even try to deny or pretend it didn't happen. Instead, he yelled in that same desperate tone "YOU COULD'VE BEEN PLAYING VIDEO GAMES ALL YOU WANTED! WE COULD'VE BEEN COUSINS!" I reminded him that I had a future planned and I wasn't going to throw it away for even that. That was the last time we ever talked or hanged out again.
Then about a year or two later after I graduated, I found out from another friend of mind that Matthew got arrested for "presenting obscene material to a minor" and is now a registered SO.
To this day, I kept thinking of all the worst that could've happened, ranging from ones where he would've tried passing the blame onto me (like he did when he shattered my brother's flower pots) and get me in trouble to me possibly winding up in prison for murder.
He's also been back in jail for the same charges and he's also been in prison.
2024.04.22 20:37 ngurto My Testimony
Dear Friends,
I love you. I have seen, heard, and felt the word of God and feel compelled to write this. It is with both fear and joy that I write to you. I pray that in the telling of my journey, some of you will find use in my testimony. I know that most will disregard this and that your ears are not ready to truly listen. In truth, I myself have ignored this message for most of my life. I'm aware of the stigmas and how most of you will view this. Some will likely think less of me in telling this story. Because of the gravity of seeing the truth, I am prepared to subject myself to losing standing with all of you if it means that just one will be strengthened in Christ.
I know your pain. I know that deep down each of you have a chasm cut deep through your souls that longs to heal. We spend our lives trying to find something to fill the chasm to take away the pain, to give us hope for tomorrow, or to make us feel like there is purpose to our existence. Unfortunately, none of these are a cure. Sure, they can really feel helpful in that there is temporary distraction or relief in focusing our energy to these worldly salves, but they are unhealthy to your soul and will fail. If you need proof of what I've said, open your eyes. See that there are people out there with the "things" you wish you had, the job you wish you had, the house you wish you had, the popularity, power, influence, and you will notice a common thread among them, they are all unfulfilled and continuing to search for that secret salve. You might be one who understands that money doesn't buy happiness already, and you have found other things like family and friends to fill this chasm. But even those things are unable to heal you. Open your eyes to the people you know that have friends, family, and even children that they adore and ask if they are truly fulfilled. You might say that they seem pretty happy in the lives they've created, but what will happen when their children, friends, and family die, change, or when their life takes them further away from us? You, who have defined your happiness through such things will be left empty again. Depending on how long your life was defined by such things, the sharper the loss will feel when they're gone.
It is only in a deeper belief in the everlasting that can actually heal this wound. To be more direct, it is love for all. When you are filled with love for each person, that can never be destroyed and does not have a shelf life. From this love you can derive purpose, fulfillment, relief, forgiveness, and a true state of life that will bring you joy and happiness. The secret quite simply is love and that God is love (1 John 4:8). If you fill your lives with true love toward each other, you fill yourselves with God.
I know the urge to turn now and say, "There are many religions out there that preach love, and there are many ways I can live outside of religion altogether and still dedicate myself to the idea of love." But this isn't true. I'm not going to spend time pointing to why all of the other religions of the world fall short, but suffice it to say, this is something that I have researched deeply. If you're of the mindset of thinking that these other religions are similar, I would simply challenge you to put that belief to the test and prove me wrong. Find an answer that teaches love and forgiveness toward everyone. Find an answer that doesn't believe we will be held to the scales of justice forcing us to fight to outweigh the wrongs we've done in life. Find an answer that has historicity, that answers the question "why?", and that demonstrates God's desire to connect with every person who has ever lived. Do the work yourself and you will find yourselves at the same answer I have found and your belief will be solidified through the trust you put in your own research. If you're one who is self righteous and believes they can be a "good person" without religion, I can relate to you. I walked that path for decades. Take measure of the life you lived and honestly ask yourself the questions - Am I or have I been driven by lust, gluttony, greed, sloth, wrath, envy, or pride? Which of those are a part of your life regularly? If you've come to the honest conclusion that we're all guilty of having these weaved throughout every decision we've made in life and still feel self righteous. Then ask yourself the questions - what has my self righteousness led me to? Are you fulfilled, filled with righteous purpose, and driven by love to help everyone around you? Does your existence and the path you're on lead to more or less love existing in the world?
If you're thinking that God is someone/something we will never understand and that there is no purpose to life, I can relate to you as well. You who are agnostic or deists have a tough road to walk. You've never felt a miracle in your life that is unexplainable? You've never asked "why" or "to what end"? In truth, I pity you because I was you. I know how hard it is to really put in time and energy thinking about things of this nature. For you it is probably going to take something catastrophic within your own lives to break the foundation of this thinking, as was the case with my story. I wish I had the right words to put on paper to stir within you what was stirred within myself, but I do not. All I have to give you is telling my story in hopes that when and if you're ever blessed with having that view shattered, you will in your emptiness remember that you're not alone, you are loved, and your life is more precious than you know. That not only is God active and alive in humanity, he has been with you every step of the way with arms outstretched waiting for you to take him in embrace.
My heart breaks for you all because Godless life is hard. I know that you either are or will be hurt, alone, and empty. I would give all that I have for you to feel what I do, to know what I know, and to believe what I believe. The crushing truth is that most of you will not be changed. Most of you will forget having ever read this or will simply say "good for you". Some will even mean it. I weep for you. Would that I could stir you to action by force, but no amount of pressure would change your soul. Because each of us in life has the freedom to choose your own destiny. It is up to each of us to decide how we spend that life and who we choose to serve. Make no mistake, we all make that decision and dedicate our lives accordingly. Whether you're driven to please yourself or others, or if you set sights on worldly goals, spiritual, or religious views, you decide. In doing so, you affect the world and everyone around you.
So with a somber mind, I give you the only thing I can, testimony of my walk and path. All of the warts, failings, and shortcomings for you to do with it what you will. This isn't meant to be an autobiography or showing of how great I've become, but to the contrary, show you how I fell short, was redeemed, and rededicated to Christ. Please understand that I write this to you with no ambition but love and hope.
I had an upbringing that some would call advantageous and others would call unfortunate. For me, I consider it all integral to who I've become and can see how each pain, trauma, and blessing, helped form me as a person and lead me to exactly where I am today.
Both of my parents were very young when I was born and neither was ready for the challenge of raising children. My mother succumbed to this pressure and left me when I was 5 years old to pursue a life without the burden of being a mother. I won't spend time writing what it's like for a young person to not have a parent. You can all either relate or imagine your own lives in this context. My father did all he could to provide for his children, but that often required long hours of being away working, and nights spent just trying to recover. As a young man he sacrificed his time and energy just to provide life's necessities. I was blessed with a grandmother that was able to provide me with the attention and love that all children need. I took comfort in her and my large extended family. When I was 7, my father left us to go to a trade school and was gone for a large part of the year. While away, he met his second wife and married again. With this new unification, he came back to retrieve my brother and me from our grandmother to bring us to a new life, 500 miles away. This was massively traumatic to me. I cannot express to you how close to my grandmother I was by this point, other than to say that she had become my mother I never had. On moving day, I saw her and she gave me a bible with instructions to read and memorize the 23rd Psalm. With tears in our eyes, I took on the task. I didn't understand why she wanted me to do it, because she only said that it would bring me comfort. I'm sure that my unwillingness to leave really hurt my father, who had sacrificed so much, but young people are rarely compassionate to such sensitivities.
I resented my stepmother for being the reason I was pulled from home. To some degree, I think she also resented my brother and me who served as constant reminders of his past marriage. It was around this time that I became aware that I was different from the other kids I grew up around and went to school with. My birth mother is Asian, which was really pronounced in my physical appearance as a child. In all of the neighborhoods I lived, most were predominantly white. I remember feeling out of place at holiday gatherings with my step mother's family. I remember going to dinners with my family, self conscious, always looking for someone who looked like me, and always feeling like onlookers would see me and think that I was adopted. This self consciousness turned to self loathing. I began to hate myself for being different.
During this time, I began to feel disconnected from my family. I was struggling to find an outlet for the depression and felt as though I had no one to help me. My father always had a passion for baseball and pushed me to the sport as well. It never really resonated with me on any level, but I did it because I thought it would bring me closer to him. I can remember one very distinct memory, playing on my first little league team, the coach's child had bad asthma. Coach would always comfort his son and was very conscious of his breathing to the point that he would stop games, run to the mound just to give his child a hug and a dose of his inhaler. I was so lonely that I wished for months that I had asthma so that I could feel that kind of love. On one day when my pain was at its greatest, crying harder than I ever had, I picked up the bible my grandmother gave me and prayed. I wasn't sure how to pray, but I asked God that he would send me my grandmother, who was the only person in the world that I felt I could talk to. No sooner had the prayer been finished, I got a knock on the door and she was there. Now, my grandmother is not the traveling type. In my entire life, I've only known her to leave her hometown a handful of times. The fact that she had travelled across states for a visit, at that moment when I was at my lowest, was nothing short of a miracle. I recited the 23rd psalm for her from memory, hoping that she would be proud, and I distinctly remember her saying "good job." with a level of apathy that struck me as cold at the time. I don't think she ever realized, or remembered her instruction to me when I last saw her years before. I had really worked hard to recite it, memorize it, and looked forward to showing her that I put in the effort. For me, it was so meaningful that I was able to complete the task. I was dumbfounded that she didn't have the same sense of it that I had. I now understand, 31 years later, that she was simply trying to comfort someone she loved and gave me the task with hopes that I would find comfort in Christ, but at the time it only added to my hurt.
My uncle visited once and hooked our house up with free cable. This included access to premium channels. It took me little time to discover the late night content and I started an addiction to pornography and an unhealthy burgeoning view that women were objects to be desired. I had unfettered access and watched nearly every night. I also became jealous of my older step brother, who had cooler toys and the newest game systems. I coveted these things and began to really resent the fact that he had not only access to his mother and my father, but also to his birth father who would send him these cool gifts. I didn't see the pain he was in until I was much older. My coveting became so great that I started to steal. I stole things from stores and family. I lied when confronted and saw how easy it was for me to be convincing.
My father's new career was short-lived. He suffered a catastrophic injury to his back that forced the family to once again relocate by the time I was 10 years old. One the one hand, I was thrilled to be within close proximity of my grandmother and extended family, but on the other hand, we were faced with some very difficult financial issues and my father fell into a deep depression that would take him years to come out of. My step mother worked very hard all throughout my childhood on a small wage just to provide the bare necessities for our family. We stayed with relatives for a time and ultimately ended up moving to an adjacent town where my parents were able to purchase a vacant wooded lot. The combined income of her grinding non stop and my father's disability checks, left our family in a position that we all had to pull together, fishing, hunting, thrift shopping, growing our own food, and doing all we could just to help ease the financial stress. The labor required from all of us was nothing short of exhausting. We cut down trees for heat, planted, sowed, and maintained the property by hand. When that evolved to having and maintaining farm animals, the labor intensified. I have memories from the time I was 12 throughout all of my teenage years waking up early before school to do 45 minutes of farm chores, going to class all day, coming home and helping with something that needed done on the property (spreading stone, bailing hay because we were paid with hay for our animals, weed whacking, mowing, digging ditches, maintaining pastors, and many other tasks) and finishing the day with more barn chores.
The year I entered 6th grade, I still felt like an outcast. I did not have any real friends and once again, that loneliness really took hold. It wasn't until I became a bully in school, did I learn that I could go from not existing in the eyes of my peers, to being someone the kids wanted to associate with. There was one girl who was very heavy in my class who received most of my ridicule. I bullied her everyday, at times to the point she would cry. My heart breaks to this day for her. I can't even remember her name, but I carry that shame and regret. At the time, I saw her as a means to an end and felt great in the new popularity I had. It lead to my first girlfriend, first kiss, and made me the guy other kids wanted to hang around. By 8th grade, my second year of junior high (the first time in my life I had gone to the same school in consecutive years), the script had flipped. I became the one that was bullied. The other kids gave me the same medicine I was doling out, for the same reasons I had done it. Because I looked Asian, I was called chink and gook everyday. I shrank back down and once again felt completely small and broken.
I was heavily bullied all the way up to 10th grade. I had tried over the course of the previous few years to bully back, but I was one against many and that failed. I had zero self esteem because of my look and crooked teeth. I regularly wore the same clothes and that became another thing the kids at school would mock me over. I had horrible allergies that kept me congested and sneezing year round, which again, was another source of ridicule. I started working regular jobs to buy the "cool" clothes, to pay for allergy shots, and eventually to get braces to fix my teeth. The grind was exhausting because I was still doing regular farm chores. It was around this time that I had hit rock bottom. I was filled with lust for girls and had been since I was young, but nobody at school would associate with the kid that got picked on. I imagined my life being rich, having a nice car, being the popular kid, and dating the most attractive girl at school. Nothing I was doing was helping to bring me closer to that so I gave up. I wrote letters to each of my family members to say goodbye. I had decided that I no longer wanted to live. Over the course of the week, I wrote and got myself to a mental place of being able to actually do it. When the letters were finished, I loaded my shotgun and held it in my mouth for what felt like hours. I remember trying to come up with one reason to not do it and the only one I could find was that I did not want to go to hell. At this time I wasn't Christian. I had gone to church a few times over the course of my adolescence and was baptized because it made my grandmother happy, but wasn't connected to God in any way. No matter how hard I tried to pull the trigger, I couldn't get the idea of hell out of my head. After crying until it started to hurt, I put the gun away and burned the letters. I decided that I would give God a try and began to regularly go to church.
Almost immediately, I found healing with God. I had purpose and began to see my life in a new light. I started making new friends that were Christian, some of whom were the "cool" kids at school. My social situation improved drastically the last two years of high school because I received some popularity by proxy. By the time I graduated, I was feeling a strong calling to go into ministry. Unfortunately, I had become intoxicated by popularity, my own vanity, and materialism. One thing that I would share here is that I spent most of my life up to this point poor. Being poor and materialistic, I measured my self worth by how much I was making. I saw my wages as something that would measure whether or not I was successful. So naturally, I sought out higher paying jobs and always gave all of my energy to not just doing my job, but with sights set on being promoted and climbing. All of the aforementioned closed the door to ministry in my mind and I committed my future to those earthly pursuits.
I ended up going to a Lutheran college to study history and political science. My faith was instantly under attack. Like most have experienced or can imagine, religion is widely looked down on as intellectually lazy or a view that is held in ignorance of science. Evolution, geology, cosmology, physics, history - all of the sciences are taught from the lense of refusing to allow God to be a part of their reasoning and conclusions. I drank up everything that I was taught and allowed myself to view the Bible as allegorical and not literal. This is something that remained in me for two decades. I studied conventional science, followed all new breaking research and discoveries, all the while trying to understand the age old question of "why". I won't profess to be an expert in any field, but I will say that I've got a very wide view of conventional secular science, and can at least have an intelligent conversation on most topics.
During my 20's and 30's everything for me came up aces. I met my wonderful wife and married in 2011 and had two amazing children. My career went tremendously well, I quickly found myself making more than I could have ever imagined. My body had come into its prime. I was spending two hours every day working out and ended up achieving the way I wanted to look. All of this only fed my vanity as I was now attracting the attention of many women. It fed my pride, as I felt I was living a better life than most of my peers. It fed my materialism, as I could show off my success by having the biggest and the best. But more important than any one of those individually, it filled me with a sense of purpose. There is always someone with a better job making more money, there was always someone more attractive or muscular, and always some new technology that I didn't have and "needed".
For two decades I was very self-righteous. By this time I considered myself an intellectual agnostic. Sure, I had done some things in my past that were evil - I stole from stores, my school, and people around me - I lied all the time to people around me - but none of those things were hurting other people. I thought that I was doing way more good in the world by my deeds, treating people with respect, and being a happy and positive influence. I rejected any God that could reject me because I truly thought that my scales of justice leaned more to the side of good.
By the time I hit my mid 30's my life started to change. I began having muscle pains and fatigue that would last weeks and come every few months. Over about a 5 year span, they became more frequent, more painful, and the life that I created started to crumble. Because my professional pursuits always pushed me to make more money, I found myself in bigger roles which brought longer working hours and tremendous stress and pressure. My body would no longer let me work out and I fell massively out of shape. Naturally, I became depressed. None of my materialistic purchases helped kill the depression. In my depression, I started again with my self-loathing. I pushed all of my friends and most of my family away because I was embarrassed by how heavy I had gotten. Covid made my seclusion easier because I had a built in excuse to keep everyone at arm's length. By 2023, I hit rock bottom. My body was in constant pain. Some days I had trouble walking and needed to use a cane. I was constantly wearing different braces at home for my neck and back, taking all different kinds of medicine just to get through the day. I put full faith in my doctors since the onset of my illness and to this day have been to something like 30 different specialists. None of them have been able to diagnose or help me.
Once again, the idea of suicide came to the forefront of my mind. It is so easy a thing to rationalize if you don't have God in your life. Anyone who knew me would ultimately understand why I would do such a thing as they all knew the pain I was in everyday. I had access to an easy means of doing it and could rationally think through the process enough that the trauma felt to my kids and close loved ones could be mitigated. My family had more than enough money to go on. It was all worked out in my head to the point of execution. In an act of complete desperation, I prayed. Now for years, being agnostic, I still prayed most nights. But my prayers were the same every night and done more out of superstition than actual belief. I would ask God to protect my loved ones. This prayer was different. It was the first time I really opened up to God. I told him that I couldn't carry this anymore, that I needed help, and completely let him have it. Almost immediately, I was filled with regret. Not for myself, but for my kids. I remembered my first touch with suicide and knew that it was faith that saved me. I felt an obligation as a parent to at least expose my children to church, so that if I were gone, they could have something in them to get through the trauma and save them from what I was saved from as a kid. Up to this point, I had taken my kids to church maybe twice and never did anything to introduce them to God. Over the next two months I took my kids every Sunday. I asked both of my kids to promise me they would keep going to church if anything happened to me.
My faith had not returned yet, but I did feel like many of the sermons were spoken directly to me. I had a very negative view of the Bible going in. For the previous decades, I had fully bought into the secular talking points on all of the "flaws" mostly found in the Old Testament. I knew all of the arguments against Christianity, but decided to give Jesus a try. I told myself that I was going to focus on just the things that he said and started reading the Gospels. I read a little bit every day, took my time, and really tried to approach it looking for flaws. A fairly large part of me was hoping for an "Aha" moment, where my intellect and reasoning would be proven right, and the view I had of God for the prior two decades would be reinforced. However, the more I read, the more his teachings resonated with me.
By the time I finished the Gospels, I knew in my heart that every word was true. I felt a physical manifestation within myself of the Holy Spirit. I can't quite describe it, but I knew that something was different. I was overwhelmed with shame. Up to this point, I lived life for myself. When I truly took measure of the things I had done, I realized that I had done very little good in the world. I was so blessed with means and opportunity, but used most of it in idolization of my pride, vanity, and selfishness. I spent hundreds of thousands of dollars flaunting my wealth and maybe donated a few hundred dollars over the years. For 2 months, I went through a season of contrition. I was brought to tears multiple times a day remembering everyone that I had hurt, all of the opportunities to help people who were going through pain and suffering that I ignored, the friends I had manipulated, and the evil that I produced in the world. I am an adulterer (Matthew 5:28 anyone who looks at a woman lustfully has already committed adultery with her in his heart). I am a thief. I worshiped myself, materialism, and my career. I am a blasphemer. I am guilty of coveting. I am guilty of hating others. I felt like there was no way that I could ever be forgiven.
I was also struck with a very difficult fact. Jesus believed the Old Testament as the Word of God. This really challenged my intellectual view of the books as allegorical and not meant to be taken literally. I thought that I would never be able to fully commit to following him unless I could deal with everything I learned in the sciences. Now in my first walk with Christ, anytime I had doubt creep into my thoughts, I would push it away as sinful. I believe this is why my faith didn't stick. This time, I found myself addressing my doubts head on. I spent weeks exploring christian science - something I had previously dismissed as nonsense. One by one, all of my doubts evaporated.
Having now a strong foundation, I began to really try to eradicate sin from my life. I came to understand the effect that the things I consumed was having on my soul. All of the things that don't feed my soul with Love had to go - music, tv, movies, certain websites, following politics, gossip, sin, certain video games, and unhealthy relationships with friends. I am trying to feed Love and starve pride, envy, wrath, sloth, greed, lust, and gluttony. I am also working every day to activate my faith. I'm limited physically, but I can type. I can make phone calls. I can be generous. I can offer insight to people stuck in their walk with Christ. I can Love.
Today, this disease has forced me to go on disability. My body is in constant pain. I am always fatigued and have very little energy. I have headaches, lightheadedness, dizzy spells, numbness in half my face, something going on with my heart, and the medication I'm on has side effects that also add to my physical problems. I believe that I am dying. All of this, and I HAVE NEVER FELT BETTER. I feel filled with love and purpose. Where there was once fear, depression, and pain - there is now only Jesus. Regardless of whether or not my life will last just one more day or 40 more years, I am giving everyday to God.
I give you this message with Love. If there is any take away from my story, I hope it's this - no matter how hard life gets, the answer is just a prayer away. Matthew 7:7 - knock and the door will be opened to you. I wish with everything I have that you will feel what I feel. I pray that you will break free of the world, let go of your pain, and embrace peace and love. God Bless You
submitted by ngurto to Christianity [link] [comments]
I love you. I have seen, heard, and felt the word of God and feel compelled to write this. It is with both fear and joy that I write to you. I pray that in the telling of my journey, some of you will find use in my testimony. I know that most will disregard this and that your ears are not ready to truly listen. In truth, I myself have ignored this message for most of my life. I'm aware of the stigmas and how most of you will view this. Some will likely think less of me in telling this story. Because of the gravity of seeing the truth, I am prepared to subject myself to losing standing with all of you if it means that just one will be strengthened in Christ.
I know your pain. I know that deep down each of you have a chasm cut deep through your souls that longs to heal. We spend our lives trying to find something to fill the chasm to take away the pain, to give us hope for tomorrow, or to make us feel like there is purpose to our existence. Unfortunately, none of these are a cure. Sure, they can really feel helpful in that there is temporary distraction or relief in focusing our energy to these worldly salves, but they are unhealthy to your soul and will fail. If you need proof of what I've said, open your eyes. See that there are people out there with the "things" you wish you had, the job you wish you had, the house you wish you had, the popularity, power, influence, and you will notice a common thread among them, they are all unfulfilled and continuing to search for that secret salve. You might be one who understands that money doesn't buy happiness already, and you have found other things like family and friends to fill this chasm. But even those things are unable to heal you. Open your eyes to the people you know that have friends, family, and even children that they adore and ask if they are truly fulfilled. You might say that they seem pretty happy in the lives they've created, but what will happen when their children, friends, and family die, change, or when their life takes them further away from us? You, who have defined your happiness through such things will be left empty again. Depending on how long your life was defined by such things, the sharper the loss will feel when they're gone.
It is only in a deeper belief in the everlasting that can actually heal this wound. To be more direct, it is love for all. When you are filled with love for each person, that can never be destroyed and does not have a shelf life. From this love you can derive purpose, fulfillment, relief, forgiveness, and a true state of life that will bring you joy and happiness. The secret quite simply is love and that God is love (1 John 4:8). If you fill your lives with true love toward each other, you fill yourselves with God.
I know the urge to turn now and say, "There are many religions out there that preach love, and there are many ways I can live outside of religion altogether and still dedicate myself to the idea of love." But this isn't true. I'm not going to spend time pointing to why all of the other religions of the world fall short, but suffice it to say, this is something that I have researched deeply. If you're of the mindset of thinking that these other religions are similar, I would simply challenge you to put that belief to the test and prove me wrong. Find an answer that teaches love and forgiveness toward everyone. Find an answer that doesn't believe we will be held to the scales of justice forcing us to fight to outweigh the wrongs we've done in life. Find an answer that has historicity, that answers the question "why?", and that demonstrates God's desire to connect with every person who has ever lived. Do the work yourself and you will find yourselves at the same answer I have found and your belief will be solidified through the trust you put in your own research. If you're one who is self righteous and believes they can be a "good person" without religion, I can relate to you. I walked that path for decades. Take measure of the life you lived and honestly ask yourself the questions - Am I or have I been driven by lust, gluttony, greed, sloth, wrath, envy, or pride? Which of those are a part of your life regularly? If you've come to the honest conclusion that we're all guilty of having these weaved throughout every decision we've made in life and still feel self righteous. Then ask yourself the questions - what has my self righteousness led me to? Are you fulfilled, filled with righteous purpose, and driven by love to help everyone around you? Does your existence and the path you're on lead to more or less love existing in the world?
If you're thinking that God is someone/something we will never understand and that there is no purpose to life, I can relate to you as well. You who are agnostic or deists have a tough road to walk. You've never felt a miracle in your life that is unexplainable? You've never asked "why" or "to what end"? In truth, I pity you because I was you. I know how hard it is to really put in time and energy thinking about things of this nature. For you it is probably going to take something catastrophic within your own lives to break the foundation of this thinking, as was the case with my story. I wish I had the right words to put on paper to stir within you what was stirred within myself, but I do not. All I have to give you is telling my story in hopes that when and if you're ever blessed with having that view shattered, you will in your emptiness remember that you're not alone, you are loved, and your life is more precious than you know. That not only is God active and alive in humanity, he has been with you every step of the way with arms outstretched waiting for you to take him in embrace.
My heart breaks for you all because Godless life is hard. I know that you either are or will be hurt, alone, and empty. I would give all that I have for you to feel what I do, to know what I know, and to believe what I believe. The crushing truth is that most of you will not be changed. Most of you will forget having ever read this or will simply say "good for you". Some will even mean it. I weep for you. Would that I could stir you to action by force, but no amount of pressure would change your soul. Because each of us in life has the freedom to choose your own destiny. It is up to each of us to decide how we spend that life and who we choose to serve. Make no mistake, we all make that decision and dedicate our lives accordingly. Whether you're driven to please yourself or others, or if you set sights on worldly goals, spiritual, or religious views, you decide. In doing so, you affect the world and everyone around you.
So with a somber mind, I give you the only thing I can, testimony of my walk and path. All of the warts, failings, and shortcomings for you to do with it what you will. This isn't meant to be an autobiography or showing of how great I've become, but to the contrary, show you how I fell short, was redeemed, and rededicated to Christ. Please understand that I write this to you with no ambition but love and hope.
I had an upbringing that some would call advantageous and others would call unfortunate. For me, I consider it all integral to who I've become and can see how each pain, trauma, and blessing, helped form me as a person and lead me to exactly where I am today.
Both of my parents were very young when I was born and neither was ready for the challenge of raising children. My mother succumbed to this pressure and left me when I was 5 years old to pursue a life without the burden of being a mother. I won't spend time writing what it's like for a young person to not have a parent. You can all either relate or imagine your own lives in this context. My father did all he could to provide for his children, but that often required long hours of being away working, and nights spent just trying to recover. As a young man he sacrificed his time and energy just to provide life's necessities. I was blessed with a grandmother that was able to provide me with the attention and love that all children need. I took comfort in her and my large extended family. When I was 7, my father left us to go to a trade school and was gone for a large part of the year. While away, he met his second wife and married again. With this new unification, he came back to retrieve my brother and me from our grandmother to bring us to a new life, 500 miles away. This was massively traumatic to me. I cannot express to you how close to my grandmother I was by this point, other than to say that she had become my mother I never had. On moving day, I saw her and she gave me a bible with instructions to read and memorize the 23rd Psalm. With tears in our eyes, I took on the task. I didn't understand why she wanted me to do it, because she only said that it would bring me comfort. I'm sure that my unwillingness to leave really hurt my father, who had sacrificed so much, but young people are rarely compassionate to such sensitivities.
I resented my stepmother for being the reason I was pulled from home. To some degree, I think she also resented my brother and me who served as constant reminders of his past marriage. It was around this time that I became aware that I was different from the other kids I grew up around and went to school with. My birth mother is Asian, which was really pronounced in my physical appearance as a child. In all of the neighborhoods I lived, most were predominantly white. I remember feeling out of place at holiday gatherings with my step mother's family. I remember going to dinners with my family, self conscious, always looking for someone who looked like me, and always feeling like onlookers would see me and think that I was adopted. This self consciousness turned to self loathing. I began to hate myself for being different.
During this time, I began to feel disconnected from my family. I was struggling to find an outlet for the depression and felt as though I had no one to help me. My father always had a passion for baseball and pushed me to the sport as well. It never really resonated with me on any level, but I did it because I thought it would bring me closer to him. I can remember one very distinct memory, playing on my first little league team, the coach's child had bad asthma. Coach would always comfort his son and was very conscious of his breathing to the point that he would stop games, run to the mound just to give his child a hug and a dose of his inhaler. I was so lonely that I wished for months that I had asthma so that I could feel that kind of love. On one day when my pain was at its greatest, crying harder than I ever had, I picked up the bible my grandmother gave me and prayed. I wasn't sure how to pray, but I asked God that he would send me my grandmother, who was the only person in the world that I felt I could talk to. No sooner had the prayer been finished, I got a knock on the door and she was there. Now, my grandmother is not the traveling type. In my entire life, I've only known her to leave her hometown a handful of times. The fact that she had travelled across states for a visit, at that moment when I was at my lowest, was nothing short of a miracle. I recited the 23rd psalm for her from memory, hoping that she would be proud, and I distinctly remember her saying "good job." with a level of apathy that struck me as cold at the time. I don't think she ever realized, or remembered her instruction to me when I last saw her years before. I had really worked hard to recite it, memorize it, and looked forward to showing her that I put in the effort. For me, it was so meaningful that I was able to complete the task. I was dumbfounded that she didn't have the same sense of it that I had. I now understand, 31 years later, that she was simply trying to comfort someone she loved and gave me the task with hopes that I would find comfort in Christ, but at the time it only added to my hurt.
My uncle visited once and hooked our house up with free cable. This included access to premium channels. It took me little time to discover the late night content and I started an addiction to pornography and an unhealthy burgeoning view that women were objects to be desired. I had unfettered access and watched nearly every night. I also became jealous of my older step brother, who had cooler toys and the newest game systems. I coveted these things and began to really resent the fact that he had not only access to his mother and my father, but also to his birth father who would send him these cool gifts. I didn't see the pain he was in until I was much older. My coveting became so great that I started to steal. I stole things from stores and family. I lied when confronted and saw how easy it was for me to be convincing.
My father's new career was short-lived. He suffered a catastrophic injury to his back that forced the family to once again relocate by the time I was 10 years old. One the one hand, I was thrilled to be within close proximity of my grandmother and extended family, but on the other hand, we were faced with some very difficult financial issues and my father fell into a deep depression that would take him years to come out of. My step mother worked very hard all throughout my childhood on a small wage just to provide the bare necessities for our family. We stayed with relatives for a time and ultimately ended up moving to an adjacent town where my parents were able to purchase a vacant wooded lot. The combined income of her grinding non stop and my father's disability checks, left our family in a position that we all had to pull together, fishing, hunting, thrift shopping, growing our own food, and doing all we could just to help ease the financial stress. The labor required from all of us was nothing short of exhausting. We cut down trees for heat, planted, sowed, and maintained the property by hand. When that evolved to having and maintaining farm animals, the labor intensified. I have memories from the time I was 12 throughout all of my teenage years waking up early before school to do 45 minutes of farm chores, going to class all day, coming home and helping with something that needed done on the property (spreading stone, bailing hay because we were paid with hay for our animals, weed whacking, mowing, digging ditches, maintaining pastors, and many other tasks) and finishing the day with more barn chores.
The year I entered 6th grade, I still felt like an outcast. I did not have any real friends and once again, that loneliness really took hold. It wasn't until I became a bully in school, did I learn that I could go from not existing in the eyes of my peers, to being someone the kids wanted to associate with. There was one girl who was very heavy in my class who received most of my ridicule. I bullied her everyday, at times to the point she would cry. My heart breaks to this day for her. I can't even remember her name, but I carry that shame and regret. At the time, I saw her as a means to an end and felt great in the new popularity I had. It lead to my first girlfriend, first kiss, and made me the guy other kids wanted to hang around. By 8th grade, my second year of junior high (the first time in my life I had gone to the same school in consecutive years), the script had flipped. I became the one that was bullied. The other kids gave me the same medicine I was doling out, for the same reasons I had done it. Because I looked Asian, I was called chink and gook everyday. I shrank back down and once again felt completely small and broken.
I was heavily bullied all the way up to 10th grade. I had tried over the course of the previous few years to bully back, but I was one against many and that failed. I had zero self esteem because of my look and crooked teeth. I regularly wore the same clothes and that became another thing the kids at school would mock me over. I had horrible allergies that kept me congested and sneezing year round, which again, was another source of ridicule. I started working regular jobs to buy the "cool" clothes, to pay for allergy shots, and eventually to get braces to fix my teeth. The grind was exhausting because I was still doing regular farm chores. It was around this time that I had hit rock bottom. I was filled with lust for girls and had been since I was young, but nobody at school would associate with the kid that got picked on. I imagined my life being rich, having a nice car, being the popular kid, and dating the most attractive girl at school. Nothing I was doing was helping to bring me closer to that so I gave up. I wrote letters to each of my family members to say goodbye. I had decided that I no longer wanted to live. Over the course of the week, I wrote and got myself to a mental place of being able to actually do it. When the letters were finished, I loaded my shotgun and held it in my mouth for what felt like hours. I remember trying to come up with one reason to not do it and the only one I could find was that I did not want to go to hell. At this time I wasn't Christian. I had gone to church a few times over the course of my adolescence and was baptized because it made my grandmother happy, but wasn't connected to God in any way. No matter how hard I tried to pull the trigger, I couldn't get the idea of hell out of my head. After crying until it started to hurt, I put the gun away and burned the letters. I decided that I would give God a try and began to regularly go to church.
Almost immediately, I found healing with God. I had purpose and began to see my life in a new light. I started making new friends that were Christian, some of whom were the "cool" kids at school. My social situation improved drastically the last two years of high school because I received some popularity by proxy. By the time I graduated, I was feeling a strong calling to go into ministry. Unfortunately, I had become intoxicated by popularity, my own vanity, and materialism. One thing that I would share here is that I spent most of my life up to this point poor. Being poor and materialistic, I measured my self worth by how much I was making. I saw my wages as something that would measure whether or not I was successful. So naturally, I sought out higher paying jobs and always gave all of my energy to not just doing my job, but with sights set on being promoted and climbing. All of the aforementioned closed the door to ministry in my mind and I committed my future to those earthly pursuits.
I ended up going to a Lutheran college to study history and political science. My faith was instantly under attack. Like most have experienced or can imagine, religion is widely looked down on as intellectually lazy or a view that is held in ignorance of science. Evolution, geology, cosmology, physics, history - all of the sciences are taught from the lense of refusing to allow God to be a part of their reasoning and conclusions. I drank up everything that I was taught and allowed myself to view the Bible as allegorical and not literal. This is something that remained in me for two decades. I studied conventional science, followed all new breaking research and discoveries, all the while trying to understand the age old question of "why". I won't profess to be an expert in any field, but I will say that I've got a very wide view of conventional secular science, and can at least have an intelligent conversation on most topics.
During my 20's and 30's everything for me came up aces. I met my wonderful wife and married in 2011 and had two amazing children. My career went tremendously well, I quickly found myself making more than I could have ever imagined. My body had come into its prime. I was spending two hours every day working out and ended up achieving the way I wanted to look. All of this only fed my vanity as I was now attracting the attention of many women. It fed my pride, as I felt I was living a better life than most of my peers. It fed my materialism, as I could show off my success by having the biggest and the best. But more important than any one of those individually, it filled me with a sense of purpose. There is always someone with a better job making more money, there was always someone more attractive or muscular, and always some new technology that I didn't have and "needed".
For two decades I was very self-righteous. By this time I considered myself an intellectual agnostic. Sure, I had done some things in my past that were evil - I stole from stores, my school, and people around me - I lied all the time to people around me - but none of those things were hurting other people. I thought that I was doing way more good in the world by my deeds, treating people with respect, and being a happy and positive influence. I rejected any God that could reject me because I truly thought that my scales of justice leaned more to the side of good.
By the time I hit my mid 30's my life started to change. I began having muscle pains and fatigue that would last weeks and come every few months. Over about a 5 year span, they became more frequent, more painful, and the life that I created started to crumble. Because my professional pursuits always pushed me to make more money, I found myself in bigger roles which brought longer working hours and tremendous stress and pressure. My body would no longer let me work out and I fell massively out of shape. Naturally, I became depressed. None of my materialistic purchases helped kill the depression. In my depression, I started again with my self-loathing. I pushed all of my friends and most of my family away because I was embarrassed by how heavy I had gotten. Covid made my seclusion easier because I had a built in excuse to keep everyone at arm's length. By 2023, I hit rock bottom. My body was in constant pain. Some days I had trouble walking and needed to use a cane. I was constantly wearing different braces at home for my neck and back, taking all different kinds of medicine just to get through the day. I put full faith in my doctors since the onset of my illness and to this day have been to something like 30 different specialists. None of them have been able to diagnose or help me.
Once again, the idea of suicide came to the forefront of my mind. It is so easy a thing to rationalize if you don't have God in your life. Anyone who knew me would ultimately understand why I would do such a thing as they all knew the pain I was in everyday. I had access to an easy means of doing it and could rationally think through the process enough that the trauma felt to my kids and close loved ones could be mitigated. My family had more than enough money to go on. It was all worked out in my head to the point of execution. In an act of complete desperation, I prayed. Now for years, being agnostic, I still prayed most nights. But my prayers were the same every night and done more out of superstition than actual belief. I would ask God to protect my loved ones. This prayer was different. It was the first time I really opened up to God. I told him that I couldn't carry this anymore, that I needed help, and completely let him have it. Almost immediately, I was filled with regret. Not for myself, but for my kids. I remembered my first touch with suicide and knew that it was faith that saved me. I felt an obligation as a parent to at least expose my children to church, so that if I were gone, they could have something in them to get through the trauma and save them from what I was saved from as a kid. Up to this point, I had taken my kids to church maybe twice and never did anything to introduce them to God. Over the next two months I took my kids every Sunday. I asked both of my kids to promise me they would keep going to church if anything happened to me.
My faith had not returned yet, but I did feel like many of the sermons were spoken directly to me. I had a very negative view of the Bible going in. For the previous decades, I had fully bought into the secular talking points on all of the "flaws" mostly found in the Old Testament. I knew all of the arguments against Christianity, but decided to give Jesus a try. I told myself that I was going to focus on just the things that he said and started reading the Gospels. I read a little bit every day, took my time, and really tried to approach it looking for flaws. A fairly large part of me was hoping for an "Aha" moment, where my intellect and reasoning would be proven right, and the view I had of God for the prior two decades would be reinforced. However, the more I read, the more his teachings resonated with me.
By the time I finished the Gospels, I knew in my heart that every word was true. I felt a physical manifestation within myself of the Holy Spirit. I can't quite describe it, but I knew that something was different. I was overwhelmed with shame. Up to this point, I lived life for myself. When I truly took measure of the things I had done, I realized that I had done very little good in the world. I was so blessed with means and opportunity, but used most of it in idolization of my pride, vanity, and selfishness. I spent hundreds of thousands of dollars flaunting my wealth and maybe donated a few hundred dollars over the years. For 2 months, I went through a season of contrition. I was brought to tears multiple times a day remembering everyone that I had hurt, all of the opportunities to help people who were going through pain and suffering that I ignored, the friends I had manipulated, and the evil that I produced in the world. I am an adulterer (Matthew 5:28 anyone who looks at a woman lustfully has already committed adultery with her in his heart). I am a thief. I worshiped myself, materialism, and my career. I am a blasphemer. I am guilty of coveting. I am guilty of hating others. I felt like there was no way that I could ever be forgiven.
I was also struck with a very difficult fact. Jesus believed the Old Testament as the Word of God. This really challenged my intellectual view of the books as allegorical and not meant to be taken literally. I thought that I would never be able to fully commit to following him unless I could deal with everything I learned in the sciences. Now in my first walk with Christ, anytime I had doubt creep into my thoughts, I would push it away as sinful. I believe this is why my faith didn't stick. This time, I found myself addressing my doubts head on. I spent weeks exploring christian science - something I had previously dismissed as nonsense. One by one, all of my doubts evaporated.
Having now a strong foundation, I began to really try to eradicate sin from my life. I came to understand the effect that the things I consumed was having on my soul. All of the things that don't feed my soul with Love had to go - music, tv, movies, certain websites, following politics, gossip, sin, certain video games, and unhealthy relationships with friends. I am trying to feed Love and starve pride, envy, wrath, sloth, greed, lust, and gluttony. I am also working every day to activate my faith. I'm limited physically, but I can type. I can make phone calls. I can be generous. I can offer insight to people stuck in their walk with Christ. I can Love.
Today, this disease has forced me to go on disability. My body is in constant pain. I am always fatigued and have very little energy. I have headaches, lightheadedness, dizzy spells, numbness in half my face, something going on with my heart, and the medication I'm on has side effects that also add to my physical problems. I believe that I am dying. All of this, and I HAVE NEVER FELT BETTER. I feel filled with love and purpose. Where there was once fear, depression, and pain - there is now only Jesus. Regardless of whether or not my life will last just one more day or 40 more years, I am giving everyday to God.
I give you this message with Love. If there is any take away from my story, I hope it's this - no matter how hard life gets, the answer is just a prayer away. Matthew 7:7 - knock and the door will be opened to you. I wish with everything I have that you will feel what I feel. I pray that you will break free of the world, let go of your pain, and embrace peace and love. God Bless You
2024.04.22 12:58 Michtrk PRC additions and minor changes
 | Original article referenced: submitted by Michtrk to pobeda1946 [link] [comments] 1946: The Civil War resumes…
March 1949 ceasefire. Taft doesn’t at all care about what happens to China, just wants to remove US troops from it. Major change is that it doesn’t anymore mean any division of China! It is a ceasefire between the internationally recognised government (KMT) and a rebel group (CPC). No change of borders. Controlled territory would looks something like this: edited from video Chinese Civil War second phase, (1945, Every Day and Beyond)/國共內戰，動圖製作) War doesn’t have any large begging offensive year after ceasefire anymore. It just restarted in autumn 1949. Other parts of lore stay the same, mainly US non-intervention and most importantly major cut off of the US aid to KMT (which is largely responsible for Chiang’s failure). There is no more distrust between Mao and Stalin after the ceasefire. The USSR did not officially aid the CPC but continued to do so through Korea and Mongolia. In 1949 nationalists and communists tried to negotiate ending the civil war, but these negotiations failed. CPC refused to recognise the constitution of ROC passed by nationalist government. 1950 “Three Campaigns”
1951 Marching South Mao wants to use his international momentum, both Mao and Chiang except change in course of American policy after 1952. So, the Yangtze River Crossing campaign was initiated by the PLA in January 1951, in one of largest engagements the PLA marched southwards and later towards Shanghai. As Chiang’s forces had more time to prepare it was quite hard for the PLA to break initial defences after three weeks of fighting, but as they did, the ROC forces started to collapse. After major victories, PRC was officially proclaimed in June 1951. PLA continued southwards and since 7 December 1951 controlled the majority of China, unlike OTL PRC managed to take Kinmen as well. PRC continued to face KMT insurgencies as OTL. 1952 Taiwan holds on In 1952 PRC started their two large operations to wipe the KMT out. Invasions of Hainan and Taiwan, ROC concentrated its defences in Taiwan, so Hainan, which was invaded first, eventually fell to PRC. Taiwan invasion resulted in a massive failure, at the cost of heavy losses ROC managed to defend its last bastion against month lasting communist invasion. PRC however managed to secure control of other strait islands. For Taiwan these events became key to historical memory, in PRC it was met with heavy criticism of military leadership. As MacArthur revised policy towards Taiwan with his Formosa Resolution and ROC-US Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953 (so situation as OTL but earlier) Mao lost any hopes of taking over the island. Changed timeline These changes Yet again moving the Chinese timeline. The Lore of China stands, however, timeline again changes due to changes to the civil war. 1st of June 1951 – PRC proclaimed. 14th January 1952: Sino-Soviet Treaty, this time between Mao and Stalin as OTL and not with Khruschev. Unlike the one in previous lore, because Stalin is still there, it is exactly the same thing as OTL. 1953 - annexation of Tibet Reforms/Campaigns:
1961: Sino-Soviet split (stays same due to Cuba being the final nail to the coffin) 1960-1964: Great leap forward and famine (1961-1963). 1961 - Tibetan Uprising 1964 - Sino-Indian War 1964: Seven Thousand Cadres Conference and sidelining of Mao 1965: Mao’s Socialist Education Movement 1966: First Chinese nuclear bomb tested 1968: Mao’s plans on cultural revolution and death, Red Guards Uprising.
1973 removal of Lin Biao 1978 Four Cardinal Principles in Constitution -> timeline is equalised with the established one More details about Chinese reform This shall be expanded upon. How exactly does China reform? First, as was already established, this is not Deng’s reform (although he is an important advocate for it), but one of Chen Yun and Liu Shaoqi, who were much more moderate. SEZ didn't exist until later as they were opposed to them. I imagine the reforms in Europe would be exactly the thing these men would see as the future for China. So, not Chinese state capitalism and eventually even joining WTO and becoming part of global “capitalist world order” (that TTL anyway doesn’t exist in such form anyway), but implementing policies similar to other socialist states and instead becoming key member of “camp of socialist fraternal states”, conflict with USSR is less severe and relations with US still non-existent in 1970s, so normalisation of relations happens even sooner in mid-1970s. Back to economy: Still happens: four modernizations - agriculture, industry, defence, science, and technology. China still decides to privatise agricultural communes. Industry operates according to the European model, so state-owned autonomously on market principles in the frame of regulations, that are however more lenient than European ones (especially regarding working conditions). However, key social guarantees (Iron rice bowl) remain in place in the state sector. China attracts contracts and investments from Soviet and European enterprises, joint ventures and development (for example European tractor manufacturers build their factories in China to produce tractors with the goal to sell these tractors in China, not to produce tractors in China to sell them elsewhere as OTL etc.). Prices remain regulated (not fully controlled, but still somewhat regulated). Decentralisation of administration. Private enterprises are allowed to operate, this is on a larger scale than in Europe, but not near as in OTL China. One Child Policy was implemented already in 1976. These different policies do not result in inflation and such a large increase of prices as OTL, so one of reasons for large demonstrations is not there in such volume and no Tiananmen square massacre unironically. This also means China is not as rich and doesn’t take any major share in western markets (at least not until very recently), but there is less inequality compared to OTL, less unemployment. PRC still successfully combats poverty and becomes one of the main economic powers. 1975 Macau Invasion Another change. With the TATO invasion of Portugal, Chinese leaders saw an opportunity. Similar to India before in Goa, Chinese troops marched into Macau on 15 November 1975 and outright annexed it, as Portugal itself no longer considered its own possession, but Portuguese administered Chinese territory. This led to great worries for Britain, Thatcher increased military presence at Hong Kong and Sino-British relations froze for some time. Socialist bloc recognised Chinese annexation. Portugal did so only in the 1990s to restore relations with China. 1989 protests This part of Chinese history was kind of ignored in the rest of the post. With the withdrawal of Chen from the position of party general secretary in 1986, due to his move to the position of president in 1986, his successor became the more radical reformist Hu Yaobang. Hu was a promoter of further democratisation. His efforts were endorsed by Chen, who however warned from going too far with democratisation. Hu started with liberalisation of Tibetian and Xinjiang affairs, giving more power to locals. Hu promoted democratisation and democratic discussion and openly declared that he wishes to implement Dubček’s ideas in China. This caused distrust of him from the party elders including Chen. Now, the 1989 protests. In this timeline these protests across China were held mostly in support of further democratisation promised by Hu (something like earlier protests in 1986 OTL). Protests started in February 1989, Hu lost support of the party and Chen and they planned to remove him. However, in April Hu died of a heart attack. Soon accusations of murder appeared. His funeral became a protest. Oh, no again, Mao 1968 situation. Knowing what happened last time, the Chinese leadership decided to give in to protestors demands by releasing so called Four May Promises, in which CPC promised: all elections with more than one candidate, increasing government transparency, public consultation of policy and fighting corruption. Students thought that they won and everything went as normal afterwards. However, despite all these points being somewhat really implemented, it resulted in large disappointment. Free elections were allowed mainly on local levels and only with approved candidates, other points were vague enough that CPC can make minimal effort to say they adhere to them. Leadership of Hu Qili 1991-2001 As a leader that was sympathetic to student demands and carried the Four May Promises, he was very popular at the beginning. In 1991 he succeeded Chen Yun as president and definitely after his death in 1995 as the paramount leader of China. He, despite being more democrat than Chen, continued more or less his line and did not attempt any further democratisation as many hoped. Despite that this era was very open and hopeful. Hu supported the current model of development while more radical pro-market Juche inspired figures including later premier Jiang Zemin and Zhao Ziyang were in opposition to him. On the other side of the spectrum there was conservative premier Li Peng, ally of Chen Yun. Li’s term ended in 1998 and he was succeeded by his vice-premier Jiang Zemin. Jiang held a large influence and managed to push for further market oriented policies and dismantling of regulations. In 2000 SEZ were created in Guangdong and Macau and continued to operate under Hu Jintao, generating large revenues, its success boosted market advocates. Era of stability and great growth, but not such rapid rise. Including bourgeoisie to the Communist did not happen as it did OTL. In January 1992 (40 year anniversary of the first) Sino-Soviet Mutual Cooperation and Friendship Treaty was signed, establishing warm both diplomatic and economic relationship, the same year the OEEC-China Treaty followed. Hong Kong returned to China as OTL under the same system. During the 1990s China also finally normalised relations with Japan. Leadership of Hu Jintao 2001-2011 Many expected Jiang Zemin to become the new general secretary and president, however instead his ally Hu Jintao was elected to this position. We see Hu Jintao come to power in a very different China, but he still has to combat the SARS outbreak. Despite being a protegé of pro-market Jiang, Hu Jinato instead proposed a more left-wing oriented economy and halted some of the privatisations that were launched between 1998-2001 by powerful Jiang. So, the conflict about the economic direction of China continued. Eventually in 2005 Jiang resigned and was replaced by his vice-premier Wen Jiabao, who shared Hu’s view. PRC also started to move towards more environmentally friendly development. In 2008 Tibetan unrest happened and went as OTL. In 2002 China re-established relations with the Cheney administration, this move was criticised by the CPC left and Chinese allies. SEZ opened to American business the same year. Leadership of Bo Xilai since 2011 Bo made his name as a successful leader of Chongqing, greatly contributing to its development. In 2011 he became the new general secretary and chairman of the CPC. Bo endorsed the policy of the new-left and became a global icon for neo-communists. He moved against the power of state enterprises and straightened regulations; several major private enterprises ended up being nationalised in the aftermath of the anti corruption campaign. In 2016 a campaign for voluntary re-collectivisation of agriculture was launched. Bo also supported transformation of some enterprises into cooperatives and agreed to the existence of independent trade unions. Bo also focused on decreasing inequality, unemployment and raising the living standards of working class Chinese. He promotes rapid urbanisation and industrialization of rural and underdeveloped areas. In recent 10 years there was large growth. Next to pro-working class policies, he also attempted to stimulate foreign investment and opened several more SEZs, eventually allowing foreign investments in all of China. He stylised himself as people’s leader, meeting with protestors and promising further democratisation. In the same time maoist aesthetics were revived (red songs, propaganda, personality cult both of Mao and Bo, the second grew larger and larger by time). By time his rule became more authoritarian. Already in 2012 his Anti-Corruption and Organised Crime Campaign (2012-2015) in which many both civilian and military officials, business leaders and leading politicians were arrested and imprisoned for alleged corruption, “by pure coincidence” many of these people were his most powerful political rivals like Xi Jinping. In 2015 he passed an amendment to the PRC constitution abolishing term limits for the office of president (approved in a staged referendum). Following COVID crisis he further secured his power. He officially instituted the Bo Xilai Thought on Chinese Socialism as a new state ideology, his policy is also known as “Common prosperity” (equivalent to Xi’s Chinese Dream). Many accuse him of creating a personality cult and being overall authoritarian and suppressing opposition. The Xinjiang situation is still the same, although with the Soviets in Afghanistan, Uyghur radicals are probably weaker. During the current era, China started to be more assertive on the international level. https://preview.redd.it/oli1qjjyh0wc1.png?width=398&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c76c5716cf7f70e1e1fcdd60e6b4801edf73077 https://preview.redd.it/aba6t7bvh0wc1.png?width=420&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ccc05c93232480a17ece3899be2a28893ea38a2 https://preview.redd.it/mvyo9962i0wc1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe1a1cdf766b51df66a8cc58087dfe934a3f1363 |
2024.04.21 20:57 BearsNBytes What to make of the 525 rule for wide receivers?
Hi all,
I'm back with another analysis piece! This time around, I wanted to examine the 525 rule for wide receivers. Please check out my site for the full blog post! I strongly recommend checking out the full blog post, as you can dive more into the numbers and view interactive plots too! However, I will be posting the main gist into here, as the context feels relative to preface the topic.
Well, a dive into this subreddit and a quick search for "525 yards wide receivers" shows a bunch of posts concerned with receivers hitting the 525 yard mark in their rookie year. The threshold comes from this Reddit post that models a receivers sophomore year based on their rookie season.
Many questions come to mind. Has this changed at all since the model is based on data from 2002-2016? Does the extra game impact this rule at all? How does the data look like we adjust the threshold? What are the historical success rates for this threshold and other yard buckets? I'm guessing the questions don't end there either.
Well, I hope to answer at least the latter two questions in this analysis. I will be looking at the historical data for how a career panned out based on its rookie year, more specifically based on receiving yards in a player's rookie year.
The historical data I use will be from 1999-2023, which gives us 775 samples to play with. Additionally, I will be measuring career success based on the minimum mode of a receiver's career tier finish. What does that mean? Well, a tier finish is in regard to whether a player finished as a WR1 (top 12 fantasy wide receiver), WR2 (next 12), WR3 (next 12), etc. So, the mode means the most frequent tier finish of a wide receiver's career. The minimum separates ties, so we would consider the lower value mode (which is better wide receiver tier finish in this context) as the measure of success for a player's career.
As an example, Mike Evans has five career WR1 finishes and five career WR2 finishes. In this case, his mode is both WR1 (denoted as 1.0 in the data) and WR2 (denoted as 2.0 in the data). The minimum mode for Evans would be WR1, since 1.0 < 2.0, thus whatever yardage bucket Evans is in for his rookie year, he will be represented as a career WR1 in the data.
I choose this as the representative metric for a career since it serves as a strong proxy for the prime of a player's NFL career. Furthermore, it will usually provide us with more than one data point, which is more informative than best (one season wonder concerns) or worst season (injury and/or old age concerns). Lastly, it is less punitive than using the average tier of a player's career, as there are many greats who, due to injury or playing until old age, hurt their average fantasy finish.
One last point to note, the data is based on fantasy PPR finishes.
An example of how to read the table: for the first row, 3.46% of players who had 0-524 receiving yards as a rookie went on to have WR1 careers.
So, the rule does a pretty great job as is. For more details, checkout the full table and relevant section from the blog, especially since the full table looks bad on Reddit (also there's an interactive bubble chart!). However, can we do better?
I believe we can, if we add more nuance to the picture. This is a little bit leading, and we need to back up. What does a more informed table of this data look like?
Well, here's another percentage table, but by 100 yard buckets up to 800:
Again, for the full picture, please checkout the table here and more details under its section in the blog. As for the takeaways, I start to see three thresholds:
It seems another threshold is reasonable at 1000 yards. The hit rate here for fantasy studs is a goldmine! Again, I will refer you to the blog for the full table and the relevant section for more details, but I want wide receivers who hit that 1000+ yard mark their rookie year!
First, this is the list of players who have broken 1000 yards as rookie:
Michael Clayton is in bold and asterisked, as he is the only wide receiver above who fails to hit the WR1 or WR2 category by our min mode metric.
I want to mention that our metric and this threshold is not necessarily a barometer of success via draft pick.
I think Kelvin Benjamin is an example of someone people would be disappointed with from their rookie draft. He likely went in the first round of rookie drafts, but only had four years in the NFL. Now, two of those were WR2 finishes, so his min mode is indeed WR2, but the longevity is disappointing for the expectation that comes with that draft capital (both NFL and dynasty).
Last point: Puka is a stud. Only Jefferson and Chase have also broken 1400 yards as rookies. If we lower the threshold to 1300, we add Boldin and Odell to the list. Those are amazing names to be paired with!
That's all for this one!
Best, Alex
DISCLAIMERS:
Additionally, many may find the appendix interesting: https://fantasyclassroom.org/Blogs/filters/the-525-rule#appendix-0
Cool plots in the appendix:
submitted by BearsNBytes to DynastyFF [link] [comments]
I'm back with another analysis piece! This time around, I wanted to examine the 525 rule for wide receivers. Please check out my site for the full blog post! I strongly recommend checking out the full blog post, as you can dive more into the numbers and view interactive plots too! However, I will be posting the main gist into here, as the context feels relative to preface the topic.
Overview
What is the 525 rule for wide receivers?Well, a dive into this subreddit and a quick search for "525 yards wide receivers" shows a bunch of posts concerned with receivers hitting the 525 yard mark in their rookie year. The threshold comes from this Reddit post that models a receivers sophomore year based on their rookie season.
Many questions come to mind. Has this changed at all since the model is based on data from 2002-2016? Does the extra game impact this rule at all? How does the data look like we adjust the threshold? What are the historical success rates for this threshold and other yard buckets? I'm guessing the questions don't end there either.
Well, I hope to answer at least the latter two questions in this analysis. I will be looking at the historical data for how a career panned out based on its rookie year, more specifically based on receiving yards in a player's rookie year.
The historical data I use will be from 1999-2023, which gives us 775 samples to play with. Additionally, I will be measuring career success based on the minimum mode of a receiver's career tier finish. What does that mean? Well, a tier finish is in regard to whether a player finished as a WR1 (top 12 fantasy wide receiver), WR2 (next 12), WR3 (next 12), etc. So, the mode means the most frequent tier finish of a wide receiver's career. The minimum separates ties, so we would consider the lower value mode (which is better wide receiver tier finish in this context) as the measure of success for a player's career.
As an example, Mike Evans has five career WR1 finishes and five career WR2 finishes. In this case, his mode is both WR1 (denoted as 1.0 in the data) and WR2 (denoted as 2.0 in the data). The minimum mode for Evans would be WR1, since 1.0 < 2.0, thus whatever yardage bucket Evans is in for his rookie year, he will be represented as a career WR1 in the data.
I choose this as the representative metric for a career since it serves as a strong proxy for the prime of a player's NFL career. Furthermore, it will usually provide us with more than one data point, which is more informative than best (one season wonder concerns) or worst season (injury and/or old age concerns). Lastly, it is less punitive than using the average tier of a player's career, as there are many greats who, due to injury or playing until old age, hurt their average fantasy finish.
One last point to note, the data is based on fantasy PPR finishes.
The Numbers
So, what did I find? Well, first things first, we need to evaluate the 525 rule in of itself. The table below shows the success rates as a percentage based on our wide receiver tier metric - min mode - against the yardage bucket (below or above the threshold) they were in their rookie year:| Min Mode Tier | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards as Rookie | |||||
| 0-524 | 3.46 | 2.04 | 3.62 | 2.52 | 4.25 |
| 525+ | 19.85 | 22.79 | 13.24 | 22.06 | 11.03 |
So, the rule does a pretty great job as is. For more details, checkout the full table and relevant section from the blog, especially since the full table looks bad on Reddit (also there's an interactive bubble chart!). However, can we do better?
I believe we can, if we add more nuance to the picture. This is a little bit leading, and we need to back up. What does a more informed table of this data look like?
Well, here's another percentage table, but by 100 yard buckets up to 800:
| Min Mode Tier | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards as Rookie | |||||
| 0-99 | 1.19 | 1.49 | 0.89 | 2.08 | 1.79 |
| 100-199 | 2.65 | 1.77 | 2.65 | 0.00 | 1.77 |
| 200-299 | 6.67 | 0.00 | 5.33 | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| 300-399 | 11.54 | 3.85 | 13.46 | 5.77 | 1.92 |
| 400-499 | 8.51 | 6.38 | 10.64 | 4.26 | 23.40 |
| 500-599 | 6.67 | 8.89 | 11.11 | 15.56 | 31.11 |
| 600-699 | 0.00 | 19.23 | 7.69 | 42.31 | 3.85 |
| 700-799 | 22.22 | 22.22 | 7.41 | 40.74 | 3.70 |
| 800+ | 35.29 | 33.33 | 19.61 | 3.92 | 0.00 |
- 300 yards: if a player is under this there is little to no chance they will be a fantasy usable asset
- 500 yards: the breaking point. If we include WR5 as fantasy usable, then we've cracked the 50% mark for career success. Even with just WR4 or better, we are at 42.23%, so the odds of quality have greatly increased.
- 700 yards: the chances of a stud have vastly increased. Both WR1 and WR2 categories for 700-799 and 800 plus are good.
| Min Mode Tier | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards as Rookie | |||||
| 500-599 | 6.67 | 8.89 | 11.11 | 15.56 | 31.11 |
| 600-699 | 0.00 | 19.23 | 7.69 | 42.31 | 3.85 |
| 700-799 | 22.22 | 22.22 | 7.41 | 40.74 | 3.70 |
| 800-899 | 17.65 | 29.41 | 47.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 900-999 | 29.41 | 35.29 | 11.76 | 11.76 | 0.00 |
| 1000+ | 58.82 | 35.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
TL;DR
For those who want a quick run down:- The 525 rule is an effective tool for determining what players will be usable and useless in fantasy.
- However, adding more thresholds brings more to the picture. 300 serves as an execellent minimum threshold for fantasy success.
- 700 yards is a really good threshold for better end talent. The rate of a player with a WR4 or better career is 92.59%.
- Superstars live after the 1000 yard territory, with 94.11% of the receivers having WR1 or WR2 careers.These thresholds should not be used as barometers of return on value. They are more useful for identifying if a player is on track, or if it might be time to move off the player.
Bonus Points
Two things I want to mention.First, this is the list of players who have broken 1000 yards as rookie:
| Draft Year | Player Name | Yards as Rookie |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Anquan Boldin | 1377 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton* | 1193 |
| 2006 | Marques Colston | 1038 |
| 2011 | A.J. Green | 1057 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen | 1053 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham | 1305 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin | 1008 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans | 1051 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper | 1082 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas | 1137 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown | 1051 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson | 1400 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle | 1015 |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase | 1455 |
| 2022 | Chris Olave | 1042 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson | 1103 |
| 2023 | Puka Nacua | 1486 |
I want to mention that our metric and this threshold is not necessarily a barometer of success via draft pick.
I think Kelvin Benjamin is an example of someone people would be disappointed with from their rookie draft. He likely went in the first round of rookie drafts, but only had four years in the NFL. Now, two of those were WR2 finishes, so his min mode is indeed WR2, but the longevity is disappointing for the expectation that comes with that draft capital (both NFL and dynasty).
Last point: Puka is a stud. Only Jefferson and Chase have also broken 1400 yards as rookies. If we lower the threshold to 1300, we add Boldin and Odell to the list. Those are amazing names to be paired with!
That's all for this one!
Best, Alex
DISCLAIMERS:
- The website is built for laptop, but should still work on mobile. Mobile users may run into some visual display issues, especially with interactive features.
Edit - Links
Since links don't seem to be appearing super well (at least from what I can see), here is what I tried to link above:- The blog: https://fantasyclassroom.org/Blogs/filters/the-525-rule
- 525 Rule Currently section: https://fantasyclassroom.org/Blogs/filters/the-525-rule#the-525-rule-currently-0
- Career success by rookie year section: https://fantasyclassroom.org/Blogs/filters/the-525-rule#career-success-by-rookie-year-0 (covers buckets from 0-99 to 800+)
- The elite section: https://fantasyclassroom.org/Blogs/filters/the-525-rule#the-elite-0 (covers 800-899, 900-999, and 1000+)
Additionally, many may find the appendix interesting: https://fantasyclassroom.org/Blogs/filters/the-525-rule#appendix-0
Cool plots in the appendix:
- Full bubble chart for each bucket shown by color, showing the percentages of min mode tier by size: https://fantasyclassroom.org/Analysis/interactive-2.0/Wthe-525-rule/0-1000-bubble.html
- 525 rule over time (added to appendix after request for plot in comments below)
2024.04.19 17:24 0Big0Brother0Remix0 I MUST know this fact, but only YOU can tell me, plz help
I desperately need your help.
I have a plan which might sound insane, but if you care to read on, you will see the greatness of this plan.
I played a LOT of legacy around 2007-2011 and recently got back into magic, and a few friends are interested in it.
However, I now live abroad in a country which has no easy access to magic cards, and I want to introduce them to the nostalgia of legacy at that time period via proxy.
I was searching for decklists from that time period but couldn't find anything aside from some things on starcitygames.
I started searching through old threads on the source, when I was a more active member, and found a few things.
I'm wondering if there is anybody who remembers the metagame from back then and what the old decks used to look like pre-delver. (Do people still play delver now? I heard orcish bowmasters is a thing, oh.)
From the top of my head here were some of the top decks at the time: UGR Threshold UGW Threshold Ad Nauseam Storm Dredge Goblins 43land Dragon Stompy (and Faerie variant which was worse) Life from the Loam (separate from 43land) Merfolk
I forgot the rest because I was almost always playing Goblins and usually just crushed the other decks.
Anybody else remember any decks from this time period (2007-2011) and know anywhere to get the better decklists?
As a final note, I want to lament the fact that I must come to Reddit for this information. Back in the 00s, forums were still the best place to find information. I find it quite unfortunate the way the world has developed. Apparently, from what I've been reading, a lot of the best magic talk now is on Discord. OK. When I say best, I mean best. I used to be obsessed, hours a day analyzing sideboards. I recently started getting back into Magic after 10 years and I am quite disappointed by the direction of the game, I was just recently drafting the new format on Arena and disgusted by it, but I'm sure you have already been through that discussion many times. So I just want to say thank you for playing this format. Legacy is the greatest format of all time, and I will take that with me to my grave. Goodbye.
Please let me know if you recall the metagame from 2007-2011. I would appreciate it very much. Even if you can just tell me what the popular decks were. I forgot.
submitted by 0Big0Brother0Remix0 to MTGLegacy [link] [comments]
I have a plan which might sound insane, but if you care to read on, you will see the greatness of this plan.
I played a LOT of legacy around 2007-2011 and recently got back into magic, and a few friends are interested in it.
However, I now live abroad in a country which has no easy access to magic cards, and I want to introduce them to the nostalgia of legacy at that time period via proxy.
I was searching for decklists from that time period but couldn't find anything aside from some things on starcitygames.
I started searching through old threads on the source, when I was a more active member, and found a few things.
I'm wondering if there is anybody who remembers the metagame from back then and what the old decks used to look like pre-delver. (Do people still play delver now? I heard orcish bowmasters is a thing, oh.)
From the top of my head here were some of the top decks at the time: UGR Threshold UGW Threshold Ad Nauseam Storm Dredge Goblins 43land Dragon Stompy (and Faerie variant which was worse) Life from the Loam (separate from 43land) Merfolk
I forgot the rest because I was almost always playing Goblins and usually just crushed the other decks.
Anybody else remember any decks from this time period (2007-2011) and know anywhere to get the better decklists?
As a final note, I want to lament the fact that I must come to Reddit for this information. Back in the 00s, forums were still the best place to find information. I find it quite unfortunate the way the world has developed. Apparently, from what I've been reading, a lot of the best magic talk now is on Discord. OK. When I say best, I mean best. I used to be obsessed, hours a day analyzing sideboards. I recently started getting back into Magic after 10 years and I am quite disappointed by the direction of the game, I was just recently drafting the new format on Arena and disgusted by it, but I'm sure you have already been through that discussion many times. So I just want to say thank you for playing this format. Legacy is the greatest format of all time, and I will take that with me to my grave. Goodbye.
Please let me know if you recall the metagame from 2007-2011. I would appreciate it very much. Even if you can just tell me what the popular decks were. I forgot.
2024.04.18 12:59 Al_Syk3s what am i doing wrong?
no matter what I try to do upon installing modloader in b1.7.3 I keep getting this crash:
Mods loaded: 2
ModLoader Beta 1.7.3
mod_TooManyItems 1.7.2 2011-07-01
Minecraft has crashed!
----------------------
Minecraft has stopped running because it encountered a problem.
If you wish to report this, please copy this entire text and email it to [support@mojang.com](mailto:support@mojang.com).
Please include a description of what you did when the error occured.
--- BEGIN ERROR REPORT f6c994b6 --------
Generated 18/04/24 11:55
Minecraft: Minecraft Beta 1.7.3
OS: Windows 11 (amd64) version 10.0
Java: 1.8.0_411, Oracle Corporation
VM: Java HotSpot(TM) 64-Bit Server VM (mixed mode), Oracle Corporation
LWJGL: 2.9.4
OpenGL: Radeon RX 560X version 4.6.0 Compatibility Profile Context 24.3.1.240216, ATI Technologies Inc.
java.lang.NoSuchFieldError: l
submitted by Al_Syk3s to GoldenAgeMinecraft [link] [comments]
Mods loaded: 2
ModLoader Beta 1.7.3
mod_TooManyItems 1.7.2 2011-07-01
Minecraft has crashed!
----------------------
Minecraft has stopped running because it encountered a problem.
If you wish to report this, please copy this entire text and email it to [support@mojang.com](mailto:support@mojang.com).
Please include a description of what you did when the error occured.
--- BEGIN ERROR REPORT f6c994b6 --------
Generated 18/04/24 11:55
Minecraft: Minecraft Beta 1.7.3
OS: Windows 11 (amd64) version 10.0
Java: 1.8.0_411, Oracle Corporation
VM: Java HotSpot(TM) 64-Bit Server VM (mixed mode), Oracle Corporation
LWJGL: 2.9.4
OpenGL: Radeon RX 560X version 4.6.0 Compatibility Profile Context 24.3.1.240216, ATI Technologies Inc.
java.lang.NoSuchFieldError: l
at ModLoader.OnTick([ModLoader.java:909](https://ModLoader.java:909)) at EntityRendererProxy.b([EntityRendererProxy.java:16](https://EntityRendererProxy.java:16)) at [net.minecraft.client.Minecraft.run](https://net.minecraft.client.Minecraft.run)([Minecraft.java:737](https://Minecraft.java:737)) at net.minecraft.client.MinecraftApplet.a([MinecraftApplet.java:66](https://MinecraftApplet.java:66)) at net.minecraft.client.MinecraftApplet.lambda$init$0([MinecraftApplet.java:45](https://MinecraftApplet.java:45)) at java.awt.event.InvocationEvent.dispatch(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventQueue.dispatchEventImpl(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventQueue.access$500(Unknown Source) at [java.awt.EventQueue$3.run](https://java.awt.EventQueue$3.run)(Unknown Source) at [java.awt.EventQueue$3.run](https://java.awt.EventQueue$3.run)(Unknown Source) at java.security.AccessController.doPrivileged(Native Method) at java.security.ProtectionDomain$JavaSecurityAccessImpl.doIntersectionPrivilege(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventQueue.dispatchEvent(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventDispatchThread.pumpOneEventForFilters(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventDispatchThread.pumpEventsForFilter(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventDispatchThread.pumpEventsForHierarchy(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventDispatchThread.pumpEvents(Unknown Source) at java.awt.EventDispatchThread.pumpEvents(Unknown Source) at [java.awt.EventDispatchThread.run](https://java.awt.EventDispatchThread.run)(Unknown Source)--- END ERROR REPORT 738683e ----------
2024.04.16 08:33 Erwinblackthorn Meet the Parkers: The Spider-Man Psy-op of Anti-Woke
 | One of the latest tactics from the woke is the constant usage of a psy-op. Psychological operations are mostly used by military forces during occupation and conquest in order to demoralize the opposition and also reduce unrest. The less the enemy is aware or intending to fight, the less likely they will stand as a threat. This can range from propaganda to even using cats to conquer Egypt(as the Persians did in 525BC). Fast forward to modern day, and we have ourselves a culture war that is buzzing with constant psyops. submitted by Erwinblackthorn to TDLH [link] [comments] Ultimate Spider-Man is a spin-off of The Amazing Spider-Man that ran from 2000-2011. It ends with the death of Peter Parker, the mantle of Spider-Man is given to Miles Morales, and this new series with a black bean Spider-Man is launched with Ultimate comics: Spider-Man, running up to this day. This black imposter has been critiqued by the anti-woke side as the origin point of using a checklist to transfer all of the power to this new character who is nothing like the original. Spider-Man has been Peter Parker for nearly a century, the mantle is tied to his character, and many are not happy with this change. From the new games to the animated movies, we have had this black version of Spider-Man shoved down our throats and forced into normalization, even though the MCU version is still Peter Parker. January 2024, we get a relaunch of Ultimate Spider-Man, with Peter Parker returning to his role, but now as a husband of Mary Jane when he is bitten by the super spider that grants him his powers. This shift is another psy-op, treated as phase 2 of the normalization of wokeness. In fact, this is worse than when we had a black guy steal his outfit and when Peter kills Mary Jane with his sperm in Spider-Man: Reign. So many are confused. “How could this be?” you may be asking. “I thought Peter Parker was supposed to be Spider-Man?” He is, but this is in-name-only. Part of the psy-op is where companies will take a character, give them the same name, even use the same actors for movies, and treat them with some kind of silly changes that make them act entirely different. Luke Skywalker in Disney Star Wars, The T-1000 in Terminator sequels without numbers, Indiana Jones in Diarrhea of Dysentery. These hold male characters of the past in a different light in order to make them incompetent, bitter, old, rotten, and prime for becoming second banana to the woman in charge. With Peter Parker being married, this means Mary Jane is meant to be the star of the show, even though it’s not her comic. Woke companies do this in order to shift the viewership to characters that aren’t meant to be the focus, a trick learned ever since the side-joke of Urkel took over Family Matters. The promotional art from this new Ultimate Spider-Man series is full of scenes depicting Peter giving his wife jewelry, pushing his kids on swingsets, and taking family photos. After a recent Japanese McDonald’s commercial featuring a cartoon family eating the fast food, conservatives have fallen for this false appeal to their values when it comes to woke media. For some reason, many conservative figures were going bananas over the idea of Japan being about family and the US being about black people. Yes, it’s as stupid as it sounds. Apparently, wokeness is unable to be about family, even though family is the FIRST thing the woke appropriated so long ago. Netflix is a perfect example of what is woke, with many of their sitcoms happily spreading woke propaganda while having a family sticking together. And not just any family: Christian families. Fuller House, Mr. Iglesias, Family Reunion, Dead to Me. There was even a revival of The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air specifically made by Peacock in order to change the entire plot to revolve around racism and the black bourgeoisie. For some reason, Christians are accepting this type of wokeness because it’s Christian, they then call themselves conservatives because they’re Christians, accidently becoming a woke conservative. At first, when people like Hans-Georg Moeller spoke about woke conservatives, I thought he was being nonsensical with his wording. He said people like Jordan Peterson were acting woke, and he made a very strange definition to shift it around and fit Jordan Peterson into that category, even though it didn’t fit under his own criteria. I think he was on the right track but with the wrong view, because he was right in saying wokeness is derived from Christianity, specifically original sin. Spider-Man, as a character, is meant to be seeking and saving Mary Jane, not married to her. She is to be the goal, not the achievement. Once she’s the achievement, there’s nothing left to do with her, and so she gets thrown out like they did with Spider-Man: One Last Day. People hated that comic because there was no reason for it to exist in the first place; they were not supposed to be married. Having the two become one was the first taste of wokeness, pretending it was a male fantasy to have him finally tie the knot. This is like if Wile E Coyote had a moment where he caught the Roadrunner and then they tried to make an episode that followed. What exactly is the cartoon without the Roadrunner being chased? Same as what Spider-Man is with Peter being married: a nonsensical fraud of the original. Turning the story more to slice of life, by adding married life, is a way for the story to remove itself from the male power fantasy and toward the female power fantasy of being married. Since its creation, marriage has been a tool for women to hold power over their man because men are too physically powerful and too willing to spread their seed all over the place. Marriage is a way for men to stick to one mate, have babies, become the father, and become a civilized adult. It is also the way for a woman to get countless gifts and a super-human sugar daddy. Imagine the situation in the eyes of Mary Jane. Her biology is screaming at her to have kids, while Peter’s biology is screaming at him to have sex with a different woman every 5 seconds. As the saying goes: with great power comes great responsibility. Males need to spray jizz responsibility, or else we end up with a million problem children with no dad. But then, Mary Jane doesn’t have much to be responsible for since she’s taken care of by her husband and has the kids she wants. Guys don’t really care about that as a subject for superhero comics. We want to see sexy chicks in skin tight clothes, buff guys punching each other, and explosions in the background. The original issues of Spider-Man had it all. Spider-Man carrying Mary Jane, swinging her out of danger, a villain chasing them, explosions all over, sometimes the spider mask holding a skull in it like he died or will die. There was action to be had and dangers to face. As pulp as it gets. Now, he’s slicing wedding cakes and playing doll house. People say this shift is because the fans are mostly married men in their 30s. Why not still appeal to their inner kid then? Why does a superhero have to share the lifestyle of the reader? Oh, that’s right: wokeness is about the lifestyle of the reader sharing the depicted characters within the story through representation. Now, the supposed minority of the new synthesis, the married white male, is the new minority to focus on. The beta male. When I say beta, I do mean beta. Prior, superhero stories were about the alpha male, the leader of a group and an inspiration for many. Spider-man was a sigma male, the outsider who was away from the group and on his own at all times. Now, it’s starting to focus on the beta male, the one who follows and is a loyal husband. Beta males are normalized because they are considered a majority(there must be more followers than leaders by proxy). This majority is then considered “marginalized” due to a lack of power. They are the workers, the employees, the ones who are loyal and dependable because they obey. Like slaves outnumbering their masters, they work well toward a goal and can become domesticated or civilized easily. Most popular media depicts a form of a beta male, ranging from police shows to office building sitcoms to any other occupation where someone is working as an employee for another. To make it worse for the beta, they are not competitive, removing all drive from their efforts and reducing their social importance down to nothing. This psy-op is a desire to cause conservatives to popularize the beta male, the married man who follows; creating an environment of easily controlled sheep. They don’t have to control the man, just their wife, with women highly susceptible to woke propaganda that always begins with the desire to vote. Women in the US believe women voting is normal, and so they try to spread this at a global proportion and shun any country who doesn’t let women vote. This “libertarian” value is actually what we call neo-liberal, which is known globally as a form of westernization. In China, women were granted the right to vote thanks to Marxism, coming from Mao taking over and granted to them in 1954. Why would a Marxist want a woman to vote? The idea of equality is false, whether it’s sex, race, or sexuality. It is another aspect of the psy-op. Demoralizing men by reducing their voice is key to controlling what men say. Tying their assets to a woman, by removing half of their things and taking their wealth if they act up, is key to controlling what men do. Telling men that it’s normal to celebrate families in fast food commercials is key to controlling what men think. Neo-liberals, neo-cons, they are both in full agreement on how they will destroy civilization with wokeness, in order to keep people fat and stupid. This is not to perk up something like a Spider-Man comic to a position of great power over the entire world. It’s a silly little comic. The point of this explanation is to express why cuckservatives act like this is a good thing when it is a bad thing. They forgot that, 5 minutes ago, there were awesome Spider-Man comics about fighting liquid aliens and super-humans with cyber-tails that sprayed acid. There were moments where Mary Jane would die from being turned into water or Gwen Stacy would die from a clock tower fall. These amazing moments are what made the Amazing Spider-Man amazing. The next time someone tells you Ultimate Spider-Man is a return to the past, and away from wokeness, you remind them the facts that they sadly never knew: The real Peter Parker was a sigma male and making him married is no different than making him black or gay. |
2024.04.14 17:17 RealMartinKearns Barron Read Along 20: "Blackwood's Baby"
 | First published in Ghosts by Gaslight (2011). submitted by RealMartinKearns to LairdBarron [link] [comments] Ghosts by Gaslight: Stories of Steampunk and Supernatural Suspense The Best Horror of the Year: Volume 4 The Beautiful Thing That Awaits Us All: Stories Great examples of parallels between "Blackwood's Baby" and "The Wendigo" https://joenazare.com/2019/04/15/algernon-sequite The Beautiful Thing That Awaits Us All was my first Barron collection and has forever elevated my expectations for how a story can be delivered. Choosing to begin the collection with "Blackwood's Baby" sets the tone for the layers of artistry Barron utilizes in his writing and has allusions to some of the great horror writers that preceded him. Dave Kendall Have you read Algernon Blackwood's "The Wendigo"? If not, I beg you to do so before (re?)reading Barron's story that I believe pays homage to Algernon's great work. You may find a good version to listen to here: Wendigo "The Wendigo" is not the point of interest today, but please indulge me: H.P. Lovecraft said of The Wendigo: "Another amazingly potent though less artistically finished tale [than Blackwood's The Willows] is The Wendigo, where we are confronted by horrible evidences of a vast forest daemon about which North Woods lumber men whisper at evening. The manner in which certain footprints tell certain unbelievable things is really a marked triumph in craftsmanship."[3]It certainly seems to be something that would have influenced Barron and I once again implore you to become familiar with it to understand a few of the connections I will make down the line. Now, for the tale at hand... "Blackwood's Baby" Main Characters: Luke Honey Miller (by proxy) Liam Welloc Summary/Analysis The story first brings to mind "The Most Dangerous Game" or "Shooting an Elephant" (loosely) and follows Luke Honey as he is tasked with guiding a hunting party through a very exclusive preserve. Luke meets tycoons and generally unsavory people who begin a hunt hoping to find Black Bill, a legendary stag who runs the preserve and is rumored to be impossible to bag. This is the surface of the tale, but there is a notable layer of the surreal here as well: The mist swirled heavy as soup and the fire had dwindled to coals when he woke. Branches crackled and a black shape, the girth of a bison or a full grown rhino, moved between shadows. It stopped and twisted an incomprehensibly configured head to survey the camp. The beast huffed and continued into the brush. Luke Honey remained motionless, breath caught in his throat. The huff had sounded like a chuckle. And for an instant, the lush, shrill wheedle of panpipes drifted through the wood. Far out amid the folds of the savanna, a lion coughed. A hyena barked its lunatic bark, and much closer.It is very debatable, but it seems as though Barron has hinted here about the men having crossed through to an ethereal domain where reason and humanity don't matter and all that does is what Black Bill wants. Unfortunately for this hunting party, what it wants is to hunt them. The story puts into place in its final act something simple and beautiful. The concept of man dominating nature is turned on its head as the stag rampages through the party and subverts the expectations of both the characters (with the exception of Luke per my opinion later) and the reader. >! “The stag is wounded,” Luke Honey said. “I think you hit it again, judging from the racket.”!<Scobie's analysis of the situation is in line with my own. Luke has guided them to their doom and he did so knowingly. Much like the fate of Defago in "Wendigo", Luke Honey has been torn from the realm of intellect and reason into the world of Splithoof (Black Bill) who may or may not represent a perverse version of The Great God Pan. Luke is in service to this godlike entity now (but the question is Why?) and he alludes to this in his dialogue. “Oh, Scobie.” Luke Honey’s belly twisted and churned. “You know how these things turn out. You poor, damned fool.”The lord who is in Luke's heart is the beast who hunts them. The stag himself. After, join Luke for a final reverie: >! Luke Honey’s eyes blurred with grief, and Michael’s shade materialized there, his trusting smile disintegrating into bewilderment, then inertness. The cruelness of the memory drained Luke Honey of his fear. He said with dispassion, “My hell is to testify. Don’t you understand? He doesn’t want me. He took me years ago.” !<With that, we have "Blackwood's Baby". The story has set the tone for the theme of this anthology which asks us to consider what comes at the end. Keep that question close to your mind as you read and consider if finding yourself in Luke's shoes would be worse than oblivion. Questions:
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2024.04.12 00:50 croissantthehustler (Do you think this is a fair sentence?) Truong My Lan: Vietnamese billionaire sentenced to death for $44bn fraud
 | It was the most spectacular trial ever held in Vietnam, befitting one of the greatest bank frauds the world has ever seen. submitted by croissantthehustler to nasikatok [link] [comments] Behind the stately yellow portico of the colonial-era courthouse in Ho Chi Minh City, a 67-year-old Vietnamese property developer was sentenced to death on Thursday for looting one of the country's largest banks over a period of 11 years. It's a rare verdict - she is one of very few women in Vietnam to be sentenced to death for a white collar crime. The decision is a reflection of the dizzying scale of the fraud. Truong My Lan was convicted of taking out $44bn (£35bn) in loans from the Saigon Commercial Bank. The verdict requires her to return $27bn, a sum prosecutors said may never be recovered. Some believe the death penalty is the court's way of trying to encourage her to return some of the missing billions. The habitually secretive communist authorities were uncharacteristically forthright about this case, going into minute detail for the media. They said 2,700 people were summoned to testify, while 10 state prosecutors and around 200 lawyers were involved. The evidence was in 104 boxes weighing a total of six tonnes. Eighty-five others were tried with Truong My Lan, who denied the charges and can appeal. All of the defendants were found guilty. Four received life in jail. The rest were given prison terms ranging from 20 years to three years suspended. Truong My Lan's husband and niece received jail terms of nine and 17 years respectively. "There has never been a show trial like this, I think, in the communist era," says David Brown, a retired US state department official with long experience in Vietnam. "There has certainly been nothing on this scale." The trial was the most dramatic chapter so far in the "Blazing Furnaces" anti-corruption campaign led by the Communist Party Secretary-General, Nguyen Phu Trong. A conservative ideologue steeped in Marxist theory, Nguyen Phu Trong believes that popular anger over untamed corruption poses an existential threat to the Communist Party's monopoly on power. He began the campaign in earnest in 2016 after out-manoeuvring the then pro-business prime minister to retain the top job in the party. The campaign has seen two presidents and two deputy prime ministers forced to resign, and hundreds of officials disciplined or jailed. Now one of the country's richest women has joined their ranks. Truong My Lan comes from a Sino-Vietnamese family in Ho Chi Minh City, formerly Saigon. It has long been the commercial engine of the Vietnamese economy, dating well back to its days as the anti-communist capital of South Vietnam, with a large, ethnic Chinese community. She started as a market stall vendor, selling cosmetics with her mother, but began buying land and property after the Communist Party ushered in a period of economic reform, known as Doi Moi, in 1986. By the 1990s, she owned a large portfolio of hotels and restaurants. Although Vietnam is best known outside the country for its fast-growing manufacturing sector, as an alternative supply chain to China, most wealthy Vietnamese made their money developing and speculating in property. All land is officially state-owned. Getting access to it often relies on personal relationships with state officials. Corruption escalated as the economy grew, and became endemic. By 2011, Truong My Lan was a well-known business figure in Ho Chi Minh City, and she was allowed to arrange the merger of three smaller, cash-strapped banks into a larger entity: Saigon Commercial Bank. Vietnamese law prohibits any individual from holding more than 5% of the shares in any bank. But prosecutors say that through hundreds of shell companies and people acting as her proxies, Truong My Lan actually owned more than 90% of Saigon Commercial. They accused her of using that power to appoint her own people as managers, and then ordering them to approve hundreds of loans to the network of shell companies she controlled. The amounts taken out are staggering. Her loans made up 93% of all the bank's lending. According to prosecutors, over a period of three years from February 2019, she ordered her driver to withdraw 108 trillion Vietnamese dong, more than $4bn (£2.3bn) in cash from the bank, and store it in her basement. That much cash, even if all of it was in Vietnam's largest denomination banknotes, would weigh two tonnes. She was also accused of bribing generously to ensure her loans were never scrutinised. A former chief inspector at the central bank was given a life sentence for accepting a $5m bribe. The mass of officially sanctioned publicity about the case channelled public anger over corruption against Truong My Lan, whose fatigued, unmade-up appearance in court was in stark contrast to the glamorous publicity photos people had seen of her in the past. But questions are also being asked about why she was able to keep on with the alleged fraud for so long. "I am puzzled," says Le Hong Hiep who runs the Vietnam Studies Programme at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. "Because it wasn't a secret. It was well known in the market that Truong My Lan and her Van Thinh Phat group were using SCB as their own piggy bank to fund the mass acquisition of real estate in the most prime locations. "It was obvious that she had to get the money from somewhere. But then it is such a common practice. SCB is not the only bank that is used like this. So perhaps the government lost sight because there are so many similar cases in the market." David Brown believes she was protected by powerful figures who have dominated business and politics in Ho Chi Minh City for decades. And he sees a bigger factor in play in the way this trial is being run: a bid to reassert the authority of the Communist Party over the free-wheeling business culture of the south. "What Nguyen Phu Trong and his allies in the party are trying to do is to regain control of Saigon, or at least stop it from slipping away. "Up until 2016 the party in Hanoi pretty much let this Sino-Vietnamese mafia run the place. They would make all the right noises that local communist leaders are supposed to make, but at the same time they were milking the city for a substantial cut of the money that was being made down there." At 79 years old, party chief Nguyen Phu Trong is in shaky health, and will almost certainly have to retire at the next Communist Party Congress in 2026, when new leaders will be chosen. He has been one of the longest-serving and most consequential secretary-generals, restoring the authority of the party's conservative wing to a level not seen since the reforms of the 1980s. He clearly does not want to risk permitting enough openness to undermine the party's hold on political power. But he is trapped in a contradiction. Under his leadership the party has set an ambitious goal of reaching rich country status by 2045, with a technology and knowledge-based economy. This is what is driving the ever-closer partnership with the United States. Yet faster growth in Vietnam almost inevitably means more corruption. Fight corruption too much, and you risk extinguishing a lot of economic activity. Already there are complaints that bureaucracy has slowed down, as officials shy away from decisions which might implicate them in a corruption case. "That's the paradox," says Le Hong Hiep. "Their growth model has been reliant on corrupt practices for so long. Corruption has been the grease that kept the machinery working. If they stop the grease, things may not work any more." |