After Exeter City secured safety in their first-ever Premier League season, with four matches remaining, the fans' hearts, and the backroom staff's minds, all turned toward the upcoming season. Exeter's season was marked by thrilling highs (a 6-1 thrashing of West Ham, a convincing victory over Tottenham) and shocking lows (a 1-6 loss to LUTON TOWN of all teams, a pasting 1-5 by an ascendant Arsenal), but manager Andy Maher remained steady at the controls.
With the summer 2029 transfer window slammed shut and the new-look teams having played a few matches, we run the rule over the teams in the 2029-2030 Premier League. Up today, the south coast side Exeter City, the only fan-owned team in the Premier League. With the Supporter's Trust helping contribute to financial operations and the canny Julian Tagg still directing the football side of things, Exeter look to consolidate their precarious position and craft a long-term place in the top flight.
Exeter finished their season in a commendable 13th place, with an impressive attacking line that was able, sometimes, to overcome the worst defense outside of the relegation zone. Known usually for a solid backline, Exeter's players were generally exposed by the pace and attacking verve of the Premier League. Only Sonny Cox and the rest of the attack, who posted the league's 8th best scoring record, kept Exeter afloat.
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Cox, in partnership with assists co-leader Idrissa Camara, led the Premier League with a stunning 27 goal tally in 38 appearances, topping Chelsea's Nkunku by 3 goals.
As Exeter turn to the new season, we ask three pressing questions of the team and examine the answers to find out if Exeter can repeat the trick, or if their security in the top flight is merely an illusion.
Question 1: Will the defense improve?
Whether down to tactics or formation, or players themselves, Exeter's defense in the 2028-29 season was lacklustre at best. Many point to the relatively thrifty spend in 2028-29, with only Jordan Storey and Etienne Kinkoue coming through the door to bolster the ranks last season.
This season looks already off to a different start. While Exeter continue to parsimoniously clutch the purse strings, they sold some excess players and finally made a significant, record-smashing, splash in the transfer pool, this time bolstering the backline.
Exeter splashed £22.5m to sign Czech Republic international star Martin Vitik away from Salernita, who escaped relegation by just a few points in Serie A. Able to offer improved wages and a competitive environment, Exeter had clearly committed to improving the defense here.
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"We saw a number of transfers out early in this window, where players had not quite fit in, or even where we decided, as much as we wanted to keep the man, we needed to fund improvements across the squad," said Tagg. "Last year we saw a net spend for the first time ever, and while we are very far from the spending limits imposed by the EFL, we need to make sure we balance the books. So this was a very involved, drawn out, patient process that we were only able to conclude in late August."
In keeping with Exeter's thrifty ways, they added another option to the midfield as well. "We really felt that if we could possess the ball better, maybe use David's skill set to break up plays more, and add another player there, we might see improvements across the whole defense," said Maher in an interview. "So we managed to convince Mateusz that we were the best option for him."
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With Kowalczyk now roving the middle of the pitch, Exeter truly have competition at the central midfield position, and have the flexibility to move some of their talented pieces around the board. "Mateusz really freed up and gave us some interesting lineup choices, and you saw that in some of these early matches where we came out and surprised people," said Maher.
The new look for Exeter's base 4-2-3-1 looks like this, with Kowalczyk pushing forward into a CAM role, while Camara plays just slightly forward of Watson, who remains in a true defensive midfielder role. Hlynsson moves wide to the left, while Clark has the right touchline to himself. The new partnership of Storey and Vitik protects the center, while young starlet Maguire has impressed at right back, and former Exeter Academy man Ben Chrisene slots into the left wingback position.
Time will tell, but early results are promising. A rocky 3-2 win over Brighton was followed with a much more competent series of performances. Pundits are optimistic that Exeter can improve last season's defensive performance, and fans can only hope that the starting line avoids serious injury.
Question 2: Can Exeter keep their stars?
A smashing season from Cox, the silky smooth midfielder Camara, wide man Bobby Clark, the revelation of young fullback Rory Maguire-- these are the main men around whom Exeter has built its team. With Cox and Camara both having played with the squad since their League One days, there's an intuitive chemistry and connection built over hundred and thousands of hours on the training ground. Meanwhile. Clark has impressed on the wing, as the former central midfielder enjoys the space to threaten opposing fullbacks with his craft.
"We had one major bid for Sonny [Cox]," revealed Tagg recently, "but it was miles still from our valuation, and this is about more than just money anyway; Sonny has told us he will stay with us as long as he can, as long as our trajectory for success matches his. We go where Sonny takes us." The bid, which remains undisclosed, was regarded by some as an attempt to pry away a future world-class leader, at a cut-rate price. One indignant fan noted, "Just because we're Exeter and a small club doesn't mean they can offer rubbish fees." With goal scoring on par with elite teams like Chelsea, some were surprised by the rumors of the fee offer. Still, a handful of commentators, looking at Exeter's profit margins and football operations, noted that Exeter take a risk in declining a major fee--even a low offer. "£40, 50, 60 million? That would be huge for Exeter to take in, and then to reinvest across multiple positions of the squad," one said.
"What good is that reinvestment if you can't score in the Prem," replied Gibbons in her analysis of Exeter's roster. "Cox proved last season he could score here, that's invaluable to the team. We've seen too many failed major purchases-- even Exeter signed a player who was a bust at this level."
Exeter did lose a handful of significant players in the transfer window. Published estimates from football bloggers show that Exeter currently enjoy a small profit on sales, although this is subject to official confirmation.
Much of Exeter's reputed profit came from three sales. Moving on from failed striker Erik Botheim, Exeter unload the player and his contract to Bristol City for £9.9m. Kinkoue, who never really broke through into the first team with any consistency, accepted terms with Middlesbrough.
But the shock move was relegated Crystal Palace, desperate to shore up its bid for immediate promotion, buying Ngoma for £17.1m. The promising American winger showed great potential last season and was 2nd in assists for Exeter. His touch and crossing acumen helped Exeter through a challenging spring season and some thing that his departure is a significant dent in Exeter's futures.
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Ultimately, Exeter made few moves to bring in players, counting on a smaller number of hopefully shrewd choices to lead the way. As Gibbons notes, "There was some roster bloat last season; even with many players out on loan, Exeter carried more players than they could really find time for. This was a smart offseason to make a profit on academy graduates, while still identifying the core players who will help the team.
The season looks promising, with star man Cox already notching 4 goals in 6 appearances, while Camara and Clark both have tallied 2 goals and 1 assist each.
Gyokeres hasn't lost much of step, with 2 assists and a goal to his name.
Meanwhile, young star in the making Rory Maguire continues his run of excellent form. The young fullback had a bad day at the Carabao Cup, but has put in stellar shifts in the Premier League, and is quickly becoming one of Exeter's top choices in the back line. With his work, Exeter already have two clean sheets in the league.
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A new star is rising in the defense also, with another academy product impressing in duty. Sebastian Benson, another 20-year-old defender, has been earning minutes in the starting XI and as one of the first off the bench. The centre-back is explosive in short areas and a dominating aerial talent to win headers away from even the fiercest attackers.
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Question 3: What tactics will Exeter adopt to maximize their players?
With Gyokeres and Cox both on the field, Exeter found themselves in a surprising bind: The two forwards would either force Exeter into something like a 4-4-2, and thus push either defensive midfielder Medon Berisha or attacking midfielder Kristian Hlynsson to the substitute's bench, OR, Exeter could drop into a 5-man back line, and sacrifice the talented winger Bobby Clark to the exigencies of the formation.
Exeter usually chose the 4-4-2, and the gamble SOMETIMES worked in Exeter's favor. Analyst Beth Gibbons explains: "When Gyokeres is on the pitch with Cox, this is a dangerous and pacey attack. Gyokeres has proven adept at both holdup play where he links Cox to the midfield, and at running onto balls from the wings or from Camara, who's incredibly talented as a passer. But if Camara and [midfielder David] Watson get forward, there's nothing in front of that back four to protect against the counter, and Exeter were exposed frequently there.
But if Watson stays back to shield that line, or if Maguire doesn't track forward, Exeter were too one-dimensional, and really strong defenses absolutely stymied the attack.
Exeter have adopted a more flexible approach this year, including a surprise 5-4-1 that absolutely gobsmacked Manchester City in the early running this season.
Gibbons on the new look: "This was a real surprise, as it put Camara deeper than usual. But it was incredibly effective as it provided two defenders to cover Haaland, and freed the wing backs to come inside to help against the centre-mids, or to cover those wide wingers. Maguire's work against Foden was absolutely stellar, as he stymied the England international all match."
The lineup for the shock win over Man City
Exeter put on a defensive clinic against the champions, winning 2-0 in style, with a Cox brace to lead the team. Camara was incisive as usual, but the real hero was Watson in the middle to cut off the Manchester transition, and Maguire wide, who posted 6 successful tackles against Foden and won almost every battle on that side.
Exeter shifted onto the attack for its match against Brighton and revealed a swashbuckling 4-3-3 with a fascinating double-pivot in the midfield. "The one defensive midfielder was often over-run," said Maher in a podcast interview after the match. "So we took the usual midfield triangle and inverted it, giving us two men to break up attacks. Idrissa's so good at launching after an interception or a tackle, so we let him sit deep and orchestrate, but he has free roam of that side of the pitch, to work into space more or push forward. So he and Matty [Kowalczyk] act almost like 2 attacking mids when we had the ball, but then he comes back to defense really quickly."
Wide, Gyokeres and Clark pushed up field and menaced the fullbacks. Brighton struggled with this positioning and gave up goals to both of the wide men, while Cox facilitated with an assist and a number of key passes.
The positional flexibility has been impressive from the Grecians, and Exeter now sit 5th in the table after six matches. The most impressive stretch has come in September, with matches against Manchester City, Tottenham, and Arsenal. Most fans would have been ecstatic to come away with one draw in those 3 matches, and maybe add one point to the total from those three. Instead, Exeter took points in every one of the matches, including the clean sheets against Manchester City and Arsenal.
Recent Results
"If you told us, draws against two teams there, any fan would have taken it, right?" said Maher in the post-game press conference after the Arsenal match. "A clean sheet against Arsenal? Absolutely, you take that. But the fans have been excellent in their support, and the lads stepped up and executed against Manchester, and all of a sudden, they have this confidence to go out like they did. We fell behind against Tottenham but got the 82nd-minute equalizer because they never quit, they feel like they can go against any team."
With the 5-game unbeaten streak, Exeter have laid down a marker that they wager they'll improve on last season's finish, and they're a danger to take points from any of the usual Big Six. "We're not scared," said Idrissa Camara. "We're hungry. Everyone else should be scared."
The Verdict:
Exeter look to have improved the defense and kept the most important cogs in the attack, although there are rumors that some elite Champions League sides are eying up winger Clark. The lineups will be a man-management challenge for the coaching staff, as there are simply a few too many great midfielders to balance out--someone has to drop to the substitute's bench. If Maher and the staff can manage playing time and player expectations, this will be an exciting team to watch this season. Our prediction: 10th place.
Player notes: PC, mods include gameplay mods (Anth James), Career Realism Mod (PaulV) and homemade loan/transfecontract mods to improve free agency.
Full ruleset can be found here. Sheet 1 details general rules and principles; subsequent sheets track transfers and finances.
Finances are paramount for a small club. The first season in the Prem, we operated with a net spend in the transfer window, to bring in important players that bolster the squad. Last season was the first season (out of 6) to see this spending. Maybe I'll do a finances post soon because I find that stuff fascinating.
Randomizer for transfers; transfer targets are limited to +1 over position average, with 1 player per year allowed to be significantly beyond that. This season, we targeted a CB to improve the defense and lucked into the signing of Vitik. He was actually our 3rd choice-- there was a top-notch free agent but we lost him to Chelsea and thus we had to wait for some player sales before we could afford a move.
For transferring players at or below the team average, I use a very simple weighted randomizer that's built into my google sheets. For the players that are +2 or more beyond the team average, I use https://5ungc6-joseph-boyd.shinyapps.io/FifaDiceRoll/ crafted by another excellent member of this subreddit. It changes the probability of signings depending on how far above the average your intended signing is.
If you read this far, you're fabulous, good-looking, and intellectually gifted. Happy gaming!