To start this story off, I suppose it's best to talk a little bit about myself and my experience in the TTRPG space. I've been an avid TTRPG enthusiast for almost two decades now. Yes, I'm a bit of an old hat/old fogey. I started my enjoyment of the hobby with Pathfinder 1st edition, eventually transferring over to DnD 5e when it first arrived on the scene, mostly because it was the new hotness, but I ultimately found that it was better suited for the type of games that I enjoy running at my table. While I very adamantly enjoy the structure that a game's mechanical rules bring to the table, 5e provided a rules system that wasn't invasive, and so me and my friends were able to focus on the things about the game that we enjoyed the most - the roleplaying, the storytelling, and (most importantly) the fun.
Many years would go by, as well as a couple of what I would consider to be successful campaigns - basically anything that managed to survive longer than 3 months. Scheduling, right? I digress. Eventually, I arrived at a point where my current circle of friends and I were itching to play a new campaign, and for the shits and giggles of it we decided we would livestream it on Twitch. At the time, we had managed to get affiliated on Twitch, and one or two of us would occasionally have a couple of viewers pop in when we were streaming whatever video game we were playing, and we figured it would be fun to do the same thing with our next campaign. So we did. As you might expect, nothing really ever came out of it. We were just doing it for fun. The campaign only lasted about 3 months or so, and we never set out with the expectation that what we were releasing into the world was anything amazing - we were just four normal dudes having fun playing a game we enjoyed, and if you happened to find yourself on our Twitch channel to see it, awesome! If not, cool. We weren't doing it for you.
So, yeah, that campaign eventually fell off, and we would eventually return to just streaming whatever video game excited us. One of friends got married, and had a kid, and was too busy for DnD. Another friend got a new job, and his schedule just didn't give him the time. Hell, even I managed to land a pretty decent job at the time, and I struggled to make time for our weekly video game nights, but I managed. But ever since that streamed campaign had ended, I had an itch in the back of my mind that I really wanted to scratch. I thoroughly enjoyed everything about livestreaming our campaign. Sure, it was nothing to write home about, but I fell in love with the showmanship of it all. Maybe it was because of the thought of the potential for someone to eventually watch it, but whenever we would stream, I would get in the zone and pretend I was putting on a show for thousands (even though we may have only ever had three or four viewers at max). Basically, I had fallen in love with the idea of putting on a show for others, and I knew I would jump at the chance to do it again in the future. Enter Wayne.
A little over a year ago (at the time of this posting), I was perusing through the /LFG subreddit and not looking for anything in particular, when I stumbled across a post that checked off all the boxes.
I don't like to admit that I'm picky, but that fact that this sub exists should give credence to that fact that one should, at the very least, have a criteria when looking for games to invest yourself in when looking at advertisements. And if my little backstory above should inform you, there were a number of things on my checklist that this post had. For starters, it was longer than a few sentences. Clearly, the person who posted this was meticulous about what they wanted and what they didn't want (I would learn, much later on, that Wayne was not the one who wrote the post, but one of his players). Secondly, the post was very adamant about what was of paramount importance at the table - rich and compelling narratives, deep exploration of characters, and a passion for roleplay. And thirdly, the plan was to turn this into a "production". The post even included a promo video of respectable quality. Clearly, the people involved with this had a plan, much more of a plan than my friends and I had when we streamed. And, I considered myself a pretty decent roleplayer, so I applied. They were only looking for 1 applicant, but I figured I had a decent shot, with my previous livestreaming experience, and the fact that I already owned a (what some would call excessive) microphone and camera. So I shot my shot. If I didn't get picked, no biggie, life goes on. But when I received a discord invite and told that I had made it to the second round of the application process, I was ecstatic.
It is around here that I should introduce you to our cast of characters (names have been changed, of course:

• There is, of course, me, Dave - a guy who fundamentally believes that fun and safety at a table supersedes everything else, who happens to really enjoy hamming it up in character, and telling exciting stories.
  
• Ava - an already confirmed player at the table, with a past experience of playing with Wayne. I would come to find out that Ava was the one who had written the LFG post. Ava was also in charge of Discord moderation, and the second round interview process. She has her own story, which I will allude to here, but is ultimately hers to share.
  
• Jelly - Wayne's significant other. Jelly was supposedly not involved with the upcoming campaign at all, but had a presence on the Discord, and have previously played in Wayne's campaigns.
  Seth - another already confirmed player at the table. Admittedly, Seth plays a minor role in the story, but his inclusion is necessary.
  
  • and Wayne - the lead character of our story. The DM of the upcoming campaign. The visionary. The guy who plans to have the next big thing in the TTRPG actual play space.

There are at least a half dozen other individuals involved in this story, but ultimately play very minor roles. If at some point while I am writing this one of them pop up, I will update the list above to include them.
Back to the story. I was ecstatic to find out I had been selected for an Discord interview and scheduled it at my earliest convenience. This is where I first meet Ava. To be honest, I don't recall much about the interview, but I remember it being pretty standard and what I was expecting an interview to be. Mostly it was just going into detail about some of the stuff I had included in my primary application and talking about expectations and goals. I was told that after the Discord interview, the next step would be a participation in a practice one shot, to get a feel for how I would play at the table. After the interview was over, Wayne hopped into the voice channel, and this would be when I would meet the man, the legend.
I pride myself on being very good at reading people. I can usually pick up on when someone is trying to sell me something, pretty quickly. I tend to over analyze words and expression looking for intent. I have been gaslit and manipulated several times in my past by people very close to me, and so I have developed this defense when meeting people for the first time. Very rarely do I take someone at their word, or completely buy what they are selling when I hardly know them, and even less so to a complete stranger. In this case, when meeting Wayne for the first time, my defenses failed me.
Perhaps it was because it had been over a year since I last ran a campaign. Perhaps it was because it had been even longer than that that I actually got to be a player in a campaign. Perhaps it was because of that itch of wanting to perform again for an audience. Or, perhaps, it was because Wayne was very good at pitching his plans. Whatever the reason, my first impression of Wayne was that this was a guy who had a plan, and had the means to enact that plan, and I wanted to be a part of it in any way that I could.
Wayne, you see, had two big passions in life. The first was DnD. The second, as he would admit, was being an entrepreneur. He owned his own business in New York City. One of several ventures he had pursued, and it afforded him a premium NYC apartment and the time and luxury to spend on his second passion - playing DnD. And so, he thought, why not marry these two passions together? He had a great head for business. And according to him, the last campaign he had run was fantastic. So fantastic, he thought, that surely other people would enjoy listening to it. And so he hatched a plan - he would use his business knowledge and savvy to launch a Youtube channel that would be home to his next great campaign. But he had the foresight, at least, to know of just how saturated the DnD actual play space has become in recent years. If he wanted to be successful at this venture, he would have to stand out from the rest. And he had a solution to that. He wasn't going to put out just any old DnD actual play. He was going to create "DnD Cinema".
To do that, he said, he needed the right people that share in the same core philosophies that he had. Namely, a "pretentious level of hyperfixation on roleplaying and narrative storytelling". Most other actual plays, to him, were playing "beer and pretzels" DnD. You know, the type of game were you sit around with your friends having a good time and a laugh, where you might spend five minutes on an out of character joke, etc. Shit like that wasn't going to fly in this campaign. When you came to the table, you were going to be in character from start to finish. And recording sessions were going to be seven hours long. Could I handle that?
And I admit that I told him I could. Like I said, he had a way with words. He was clearly passionate about it. And he talked a good talk. And he was friendly enough. So he said he would be in touch. And the wait began.
Over the course of the next month or so, I would come to become friends with Ava and Wayne. We would hop into Discord and play games, talk about the upcoming campaign, etc. It was going to be several months before the campaign actually began recording, and so Wayne was still conducting the interview process while also working on worldbuilding for the campaign. He was also spending over $3000 dollars commissioning an animated table for the youtube video. This was clearly something he was very proud of, as he took every and all opportunity to talk about how amazing and innovative it was going to be.
You see, in Wayne's vision of "DnD cinema", the videos that would be put up on youtube would not include the faces of the players. Or battlemaps. Instead, it would be animated table that he could manipulate in editing at various cue points. It would feature portraits of the characters that would light up when they speak. It was the next big thing in the TTRPG space - a (frankly) audio only experience that was accentuated with the occasional fancy animation that cost thousands of dollars. No one else was doing it, he would say, and that would help him stand out even more.
It was also during these more innocent days that I would come to understand Wayne's obsession with Brennan Lee Mulligan. He idolized the guy. In fact, he would brag on multiple occasions that his significant other's job had her 3 or 4 degrees removed from Brennan - basically, she worked for someone who worked for someone who was involved with the Dungeons and Drag Queens season of Dimension 20, and he would often mention how he was hoping to use that connection to someday have a sit down and meet and greet with BLeeM himself. As time would go on, I would eventually find out that Wayne actually considered Brennan Lee Mulligan as his competition.
About a month would past before I would hear anything about my application. I never brought it up during our gaming sessions, as another core tenet of mine is that I don't want my friendship or acquaintance with someone to give me an edge over other candidates. I want my experience and what I bring to the table to stand on its own merit. This will come up later in our story. Eventually, I would get a message from Wayne asking me if I would be interested in participating in a try out one shot for the campaign. Apparently, he had completely forgotten that I had applied, and wanted to schedule in a last minute try out for me. My fellow players during the one shot would be Ava, some other member of the discord community, and Jelly.
I'll be honest, the one shot was nothing to write home about. And even Wayne would admit it was something he threw together last minute so that he could say I had my chance. I immediately found Ava to be a fantastic scene partner, and even for a one shot, put the time and effort into her character and actions. Jelly, on the other hand, was not that good. To be fair to Jelly, my criteria for grading her performance was strictly on the curve that Wayne himself said he was grading people on. I found her to be a very selfish player, who failed to pick up on narrative cues, and was solely focused on her time in the spotlight. But it was a trial one shot that didn't mean anything. My biggest take away from Jelly was that she was a player that I would not enjoy playing with in the future, and that I wouldn't seek out as a player at a table that I was DMing for. Not horror story bad (yet), but not good. Average.
When the application process was done, it would eventually come down to two choices. I was one. Wayne loved my southern twang, and thought it would sound good in a production. And we had become friends. The other was someone with a theater and acting background, who had been to Julliard. I was not selected. And I was okay with that. The decision did not impact my friendship with either Ava or Wayne, and we continued to hang out and play games together. I then learned of Wayne's new plan.
In the original posting ad for the campaign, it had been mentioned that a possibility for guest character appearing in the campaign could happen. The original idea was that, as members of the Discord community would play in one shots, Wayne would then be able to invite stand out performance to appear in an episode or two of the new campaign, as a gift to the community and to give those players a chance to play in a campaign with other players of similar caliber. This all changed as the months got closer to release date. The idea for guests at the table changed completely. Instead, Wayne's plan was to use the guest spots at the table as a networking opportunity. Don't forget - Wayne is an entrepreneur. This was a business venture for him, and successful businesses need to show growth. And he wanted to achieve growth at an accelerated pace. The plan was simple - as the channel grew, Wayne would scour the internet for similar channels with slightly higher subscriber count than his. Well, I say Wayne would do this. Wayne would actually pawn this off on to someone else. A tangent that I will perhaps need to touch on later in this story - Wayne was very good at finding ways of pawning off work on to others, and then taking the credit. He very much believe himself to be a manager, and other members of the Discord that showed any interest in the success of this venture as his employees. He would then engage in communications with these other channels in the hopes of achieving some Quid Pro Quo. You send someone to be a guest on our channel for a few episodes, and we'll shout you out. In return, he would send someone from his channel to theirs, and get a shout out in return. Something to note here - all of this was done without ever including his players in the discussion. He was offering them up to strangers without even asking if they even wanted to do that.
Time passes, and eventually recording for the campaign begins. It would be about two months into recording when Wayne approached me about being the first guest character. (At this point, I had been an active member of the Discord community for over six months now). He wanted me to be the first guest character for two reasons. The first was because I was familiar, and he wanted to test out the format before bringing in strangers. The second was because of my prior livestreaming experience. I was a part of an affiliated Twitch channel that met the criteria of having a slightly higher subscriber count than his. But for the most part, our old Twitch channel was dead. Sure, we still streamed games into the void, but there was practically no engagement. And I told him so when he asked me if I wanted to be introduced as someone from that Twitch channel. I was more involved in his community as that point, anyway. And so, I finally got what I was wanting - to sit down and play quality DnD with like minded individuals for the purposes of entertaining others.
At this point, only a handful of episodes had aired. The recording schedule had them a grace period of a month or so before release, and I admittedly hadn't watched them. Honestly, I wasn't that interested. I don't know if that's bad or not. There are a lot of actual plays out there of varying quality. And each one requires a lot of time commitment to watch. Already I was regularly watching Critical Roll, and I was having a hard time to find time to watch some of the other really good shows I was enjoying, like Dimension 20 and The Glass Cannon. On top of that, it was an game that I wasn't a part of, so yeah, I admit I hadn't watch any of it. But even if I had, it wouldn't have prepared me for what playing at the table was actually like. The released episodes were highly edited, with sound effects and music. It wasn't until I became actually involved at the table that I would find out just how manufactured the game actually was. And I use the word "game" very generously.
For starters, once recording began, all out of character talk and banter was immediately and explicitly forbidden. We were to remain in character at all times. Secondly, I would find out that Wayne had developed a "formula for success" in regards to time spent recording. No scene would ever last longer than ten minutes. If players spent too much time having their characters engaging with each other and the time elapsed, we were moving on the next scene, regardless of if it was a natural conclusion or not. Speaking of the characters, I would come to learn that the characters that the player brought to this campaign were secondary to the story that Wayne wanted to tell. "This campaign isn't character focused, it's story focused" he would say. The campaign simply did not have time for that. I don't like to toss out the word "railroaded" very often, but it quickly became apparent that there was a good bit of railroading being done here. The only character decisions or choices or conversations that would ever make it to the final cut were ones that provided what he thought would be the most interesting while pushing his narrative forward. And for a DnD game, there wasn't a whole lot of game being done here. Sure, the players had character sheets, and classes, but it was all superficial. Combat was a rarity on the level of a shiny Pokemon. I think mostly because Wayne didn't find combat narratively compelling. But in that case, I have to ask, why use DnD as your game system? If all you want to do is roll clicky dice and improv, there are much better systems out there. And speaking of the dice - I'm sad to say that in most cases they were superfluous, as well. The only real purpose the dice served to Wayne was when they could be used to clip epic moments of success or failure. A natural 20 or a natural 1 was gold for him, because then he could clip it into a Youtube or Tiktok Short and grow those subscriber numbers. For a game in which "every decision hung on the roll of a dice", there weren't a lot of dice rolls, there weren't a lot of decisions, and when there were decisions, most of the time, the outcome was predetermined by Wayne. Everything Wayne did in regards to this game was in service to growing his Youtube channel. And the sad part? It worked.
In a shockingly short amount of time, Wayne was able to grow his Youtube channel from just over a 100 subscribers to over a 1000. This was mostly done by his excessive push of Youtube and Tiktok shorts. For a short period of time, I was deemed trustworthy enough to have access to the Youtube channel's admin, and I could view the statistics. The turnover rate for shorts into actual video views was miniscule. Only a tiny fraction were tuning in for the actual show. At this point, he had just become a Youtube Shorts creator.
And I want to mention at this point - I understand and respect the hustle. The world of Youtube is a dog eat dog world, and you have to have to play the game to stay in the game - I get it. I don't have any issue with being proud of what you've created, and pushing it out to people. I really don't. My issue was with how deceptive Wayne was being with it. And how deceptive he was, in general, as I would come to find out.
You see, before the inaugural campaign had even launched, Wayne approached me one day to see if I would be interested in running a campaign on his channel, as I had experience before in it, and had expressed an interest in doing it again. And I will admit, I was excited about the prospect. But before my words of "Yeah, I'd love to talk about" even had a chance to dissipate into the ether, Jelly would hop into the channel, in the middle of the discussion to say, "You know who should run a campaign? Seth." And then immediately log off.
I don't have a lot to say about Seth. I think he is an amazing, caring, friendly guy. He also happens to be an incredible roleplayer and storyteller, and his character is Wayne's campaign is truly phenomenal. I envy how easy it is for Seth to get into and portray the wide arrange of emotions of a character. He also happens to be a great GM. I understand why Jelly would suggest him to run a campaign. What I didn't understand, at the time, were her motives. Wayne, Ava, Jelly, and Seth had all played in a previous campaign together, and Wayne and Jelly had become enamored by just how good Seth was. And even prior to that, Ava and Seth had a past campaign together. Jelly wanted to be a player in a Seth run campaign. And if Wayne was going to have a second campaign on the channel, she wanted it to be Seth's, and she wanted to be a player in it.
And so, immediately, any and all discussion about me running a campaign was ceased, and the legwork was put forth for Seth to run a campaign. Wayne would approach him about it, and he was interested. Seth would already have in mind the players that he wanted for it - two friends of his from outside the server, Ava, and another player from the Wayne campaign. Noticeably missing from that list - Jelly.
Strangely, Wayne would then tell Seth that if he was going to run a campaign on the channel, he would have to have an application process for the players, and open it up so that anyone could apply. After Seth had already stated he already had players in mind - players who already said yes. I don't know about you, but as a DM, I would never let someone dictate to me who I could have at my table. If I have players in mind already, it's because I have a reason. But Wayne demanded an application process be followed, and a second LFG post would appear in LFG for the Seth run campaign - that was noticeably advertising for 4 players. After Seth had chosen his players. The advertisement came with another well edited and narrated youtube promo that was, and still is, the highest viewed video on the channel. And all of it was a sham. Which I knew it was. And I confronted Wayne about it. It was then that I learned some unsavory backstory involving Ava and Jelly and the prior campaign. That is not my story to tell. I have shared my accounts of events with Ava, and she is considering posting an account from her perspective following this. The most I am willing to say on this is that involves situations that should never be okay at a DnD table, and that Wayne would gloss over and sugarcoat these situations as no big deal. It would lead to Ava not being comfortable with being at a table with Jelly which both I, and Seth, would understand.
Wayne, however, found this to be unfair and manipulative on Ava's part. Those past incidents should have had no bearing on Jelly's consideration for the Seth run campaign. Which is why he would demand an application process. He would then confide to me when I questioned the duplicity of the LFG advertisement that it wasn't completely misleading. There would still be someone chosen from the list of applicants - because he was going to make sure that Ava wasn't part of the campaign. After Seth had already told both Wayne and her that she was. After the players for that game had already come together for a session zero. He claimed that Ava had prior incidents of being difficult to work with, and that because he wasn't involved in the campaign, he couldn't be there to handle any situations that might arise of conflicts between players at the table. At the time I thought that was an odd statement to make - if you are trusting enough of another person, like Seth, to run a campaign on your channel shouldn't you be trusting enough in their ability to handle problems between players? Looking back now, I can only assume he made that statement because he was certain that Jelly would be a player at the table, and that problems might arise between Jelly and Ava. He asked that I keep the conversation between us. But that was something I could not do. None of that situation felt right to me. Wayne, Ava, and I had been friends playing games together for nearly a year now. I never saw any inclination of Ava being a "problem player" - she was great at the table, and a great person to hang out with. And I found it weird that Wayne would say those things about her, and not approach her about it. So of course I talked to her. For weeks she had been sharing her excitement of the new campaign with me, often with Wayne in the voice channel with us. Ava would then share with me her past experiences with Wayne and Jelly. Again, it is not my story to tell, but I am a good judge of character. I believed Ava's account of events. It made sense to me, with how Wayne and Jelly acted.
I wish I could say this story had a happy and/or satisfying conclusion. I'm not even really sure if there is a point to it, or even if it will be a good read. It has been clear for some time now that Wayne has been entirely obsessed with the growing of his Youtube channel, damn any and all bridges burned, and walking back some of his initial promises of what he claimed the campaign and the Youtube channel would be. It's also very clear to me that Wayne is someone who absolutely has to have control over everything, especially the narrative (fictional and real life).
There are so many minor grievances to air about Wayne that I haven't already touched on, and I feel like I've already taken up too much of your time already. Here's just a brief overview, I'd be more than happy to go into more details if you want them:

• Multiple players from the Wayne campaign confided in me about some of the problems they had with Wayne and how the game was being run. When Wayne found out, he blew his lid, and said that he was both Manager and HR, and no one should be complaining to anyone outside of the table. If they were going to complain to anyone, it should be him.
  
  • It turns out, Wayne has a prior history of being an asshole. Long before the Youtube channel, and the campaign, even before the previous campaign, he told his then group that they were playing the game wrong. He then found a new group, sang their praises to the old group, and then even brought both groups together to show the old group "the right way to play"
  • In addition to Wayne, he has two editors working for him. One of which he pays. The other one has had no compensation. The one not getting paid is doing the same work as both Wayne and the paid editor combined.
  • I mentioned way early on in the story that Ava was the Discord Administrator for the Discord server. After the Seth campaign incident, Wayne unceremoniously removed Ava as Administrator, told her it was "by mistake", and never put it back. As far as I can tell, there was nothing to warrant this other than control. I suspect it was because there were certain Seth campaign related channels or other channels he didn't want Ava to see.
  • The unceremonious removal of myself and Ava from the Youtube channel admin. Admittedly, we contributed very little to it, but it was removed without a word mentioned.
  • Recently making a post requiring his "talent" to purchase a minimum $5 dollar Patreon subscription. He has admitted to me the reasoning for this was to inflate Patreon subscriber numbers to entice new subscribers. He has since walked that back after much outcry from the "talent"
  • Asking Seth if it wouldn't be too much to convert his envisioned DnD campaign into a Daggerheart campaign, because Daggerheart is the new hotness, and will attract more viewers.

Ultimately, I suppose I feel disheartened and deceived. Deceived because I originally signed up for what I thought was going to be a bunch of friends sitting around and recording themselves playing quality DnD, and it has shifted so far from that original purpose. Wayne is obsessed over subscriber numbers and views, it's all he ever talks about. He claims that his goal is to reach a level of success to which all 10+ people involved will be able to achieve financial freedom (which he claims is roughly $2000 a month). I'm sure you've done the math, just like I have. Even if you believe $2k a month is financial freedom (I certainly don't), that comes out to $240,000 a year. That's an insane level of success to promise your players. Oh, I'm sorry, your "talent".
I feel disheartened because....there's actually good work being done here. Some of the players are some of the best I've ever played with. Wayne can actually be a good storyteller, when he's not pushing for likes or clicks. The editors do a really fantastic job. I have seen and listened to the work being done on the Seth campaign (luckily Wayne is only tangentially involved), and Seth's campaign is turning out to be something really special. There is something good being done here, but it seems so tainted by Wayne and his obsession for Youtube and Tiktok success. So, maybe this is an RPG Horror Story, maybe it's a cautionary tale. I dunno. I have committed to finishing out my run in the campaign, (I was brought back to the table multiple times because the players enjoy playing with me, and also I suspect I was involved in one of his highest viewed shorts), but my hearts not in it. I've told Wayne I've no interest in any of his future projects, and I wish him well on his Youtube journey. But in the pursuit of clicks, and likes, and subscribers, I feel like he has fundamentally lost what attracts people to actually watch and invest in TTRPG actual plays - authenticity.

I’m about to get my hands on my first round of printing for a children’s to teen’s ~40 pg graphic novel (yay!) and plan on selling some of them as goods on a personal shop of mine to ship out individually. But I was also looking at other places to market.
I have a few local bookstores and cafes that are pretty brick and mortar… is it typical for self-published authors to go to those types of places and ask if they’d sell your book? Most of them do display art by locals, so perhaps they’d be open to selling mine?
I do know that I’d have to purchase an ISBN for that, which I don’t currently have but could add to my next round of printing. If I were to sell them at local stores though, what is the profit management typically like? Would I get a portion of every book as a direct deposit, or like a check or cash that I’d pick up every now and then… or do I get anything at all?
I appreciate the help!

I hired a contractor to remove a load bearing wall for me. They had engineering plans drawn up by a structural engineer AFTER we executed the contract. The contract states that the contractor must build to the engineering plans.
The plans include a new concrete footing under the house that is needed to guarantee the structural integrity of the house by bearing the load that has been redistributed to a new post. This new footing was not discussed prior to contract execution, or even prior to the commencement of the project work. It was only "discovered" 2 weeks into the project when we failed our county inspection for not building to the engineering plans. Now the contractor is claiming that this was "unforeseen" and is insisting on writing up a change order to the contract to charge me the cost to install the footing (in addition to the original contract pricing). My stance is that this cost should already be included in the initial contract price, given that the engineering plans clearly state the new footing must be installed, and the contract says they must build to the plans.
If I refuse to agree to the change order + additional cost, the contractor can terminate our contract. If this were to happen, how hard would it be to find a new contractor to finish the remaining work in the project? (install the concrete footing, repair drywall, install hardwood flooring, and paint) Would we need to get an entirely new permit with the county, or could the new contractor perform the work under the existing permit?

I have a lot of extra time at work with a laptop and access to wifi. I've already started doing my own small side hustle which is English tutoring online. It's nice to meet new people and I actually enjoy it a lot more then I thought I would. My problem is, it doesn't pay a lot (about 7.50 per hour) and I have maybe 2 classes a day. I'm still left with plenty of time to commit to another project. A couple ideas I had already been considering: -Getting a degree from WGU in Accounting (Accounting has nothing to do with my current job but I did do an internship for accounting when I was in college. I dropped out in 2022.) -doing some type of drop shipping -get into some type of Turo business where I borrow a loan to get a car and just rent it out. I can have a friend pick it up or drop it off and I'd just uber him home.
Some data points: I'm 21 My job is one where I can't leave my building until 8pm I have a laptop I opened my LLC for my tutoring business. My idea behind it was to get a couple of business cards to build history without really using them. I do plan to pursue the Turo idea in the future but I don't have a car at the moment to even start. Still building on my credit on the personal side.
These are all long Term goals, I'm more looking for other ways to improve myself. I've been working out for about 30 minutes since I have a couple weights here, but I want to do something genuinely productive. I've so far taught myself more about financial literacy through YouTube. Started getting my credit together, building an emergency fund, investing into some stocks (about 100-200 month, nothing crazy bc my income isn't that high to begin with). I want to know what else can I do? I'd really like to keep this job as it pays enough for my bills and a little more, and this free time could be used to develop something. Thanks for reading my rant lol

There was a wedding this weekend. But it was a couple in college and their idea of a wedding primarily centered around being newly 21 so lots of toasts and alcohol, also, religious, with homilies and hymns. Such an event is not a great place for someone with a debilitating, poorly controlled depressive mood disorder, characterized by terrible general and social anxiety.
When I first started dating my s/o, they had a story they would tell me on repeat about going to a family wedding some years ago and losing it, crying, big crying, during the ceremony, and their plus one at the time was embarrassed to have gone with them. The rest of the wedding involved getting drunk to bury emotions. The story would come up out of the blue like a trauma flashback. ...It probably WAS a trauma flashback. Having a mental health meltdown so publicly, in a nearly silent event hall, where everyone knew who they were was one of their great terrors, and they lived it.
Life post-ketamine has been very different. Still, my s/o was freaked out that there was a wedding to go to but felt obligated to say yes. The rehearsal dinner the day before involved everyone being instructed to give a toast, and there were a LOT of guests.
Instead of being overwhelmed and getting hammered, then more emotionally unstable due to alcohol, then freaking out at giving toast, my s/o took some air and decided it was better to leave the rehearsal dinner early, skip the bar, and call it good. They made it through the dinner and introductions and a hoard of college students with slumped shoulders and circles under their eyes fidgeting with their first ever suit or gown, not knowing how to walk around in nice clothing. It was an anxiety inducing event for sure, to be surrounded by self-esteem impaired kids who were all going for the booze but without the benefit of self control from experience at fine dining parties, with what looked like over 100 people, and everyone asking for public sharing of personal details, also a pro photographer yelling to smile! They held up well, discussed current work projects and some new construction, introduced me to people I had never met, and put out some effort to show pride in me and make me look good socially. I was pretty stunned.
But that night they panicked a little that they would fall apart again at the actual wedding, and everyone would think they were some kind of weak fool. The story went back on repeat after being gone for over a year.
For about an hour, they were trying to negotiate with me to support using drugs or alcohol to dull the experience, some lashing blame, general disarray of thinking and planning. But they assumed it would be the same as last time, they couldn't live through that embarassment again, falling apart in front of 100 people and being obligated not to leave. The
The next morning they had calmed down, apologized for being so strung out, and we strategized and bought a wine bottle shaped jug of grape juice for the table, so the glasses would be full of something wine-ish and no one would try to force alcohol into their empty glass, and demand they toast and drink, which would definitely put them into a downward spiral.
The wedding later that day was worse in terms of anxiety induction. The hymns, and religious speeches, and a nearly hour long preacher lecture to the couple was a prelude to the too loud background music and people all around yelling to be heard while everyone in fine clothing tried to eat the catered tacos and liquid cheese pour over nachos, with their hands, while avoiding necktties and lace.
And it was fine. No emotional upheaval, no panic due to the crowd, no horror at meeting people.
After four hours, they had congratulated the happy couple, dinner with relatives, family photos, signed the Bible, written note to the couple for the memory scrap book, caught up with relatives, and had real conversations for about two hours of the event. When it was clear there was no emerging timeline for cake cutting, they asked to take a quick walk outside where we could hear each other and we made an exit plan. They had enough bandwidth to compliment the mother of the bride and father of the bride and congratulate them, beg off early due to being a little overwhelmed and blamed their social anxiety diagnosis, and stopped to say goodbye to close relatives.
Since we missed the cake, we pulled in at the nearest gas station and they pounded down a nasty Hostess type pastry cake as a stress relief/token of achievement and we had a good laugh.
They felt depressed for a couple hours afterward, talking about how gross it felt to be surrounded by people who were parading polite personas and be expected to wear the same mask. That the religious content had been much more than they'd been expecting, e.g. required singing about how we are all God's weapons against devils (an interesting choice for a wedding.) Church was never a safe place for them, it was social group where you "can pray away mental illness," and remaining mentally ill was a sign of further personal failure. So feeling low and blue wasn't so much a symptom as a very normal response to being sat down through prayers and hymns and recitations, etc.
And then they played with their kitten to have the kitten run around chasing toys until exhausted and happy sleepy, gave it dinner and asked if I wanted to snuggle and catch up on the news on TV.
And things were fine. They reflected that they didn't fall apart, that they never expected to be able to handle an event like that. That leaving a little early was not much of a sin and they'd been talkative, likeable, well-dressed, and nice company.
The next day there was no recovery or fall out. They did a big favor (1.5 hours driving) for an acquaintance who was rushing in from out of town for an elderly family member who broke their leg. This favor did not stop them from getting some work done, kitten care, and schedule planning.
What a change. From a mental health melt down and subsequent years of relived trauma, improving to the point where the big follow up was them giving me an eyeroll in the car and saying "next time, I'm asking about how many hymns and homilies there will be before I RSVP."

I'm working on this project that is about humanizing women and the work/hobby/interests they have. I was planning to include a segment with the police force. I was originally going to do just a ride along with the Dallas police department but I'd like to dig a bit deeper than that and to follow this police officer into her home life/family/hobbies or whatever it might be that they'd like to share. If you or someone you know would be interested in being filmed this way please let me know!

AGI Defined
An autonomous assistant that solves tasks you give it as well as or better than a human would. It has the reasoning, agency, learning capability, and ability to use tools like a human.
How AGI Solves Tasks
Problem Definition and Understanding:
Start by understanding the problem, desired outcomes, and constraints.
Planning:
Formulate a detailed plan outlining steps and strategies to address the problem.
Knowledge Acquisition:
Gather relevant information from its database, the internet, and through its own experiments.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Collect, clean, and analyze data to extract useful insights.
Reasoning and Planning:
Plan by simulating different strategies and evaluating their feasibility.
Creative Generation of Solutions:
Create innovative solutions by combining and extrapolating ideas.
Evaluation and Selection:
Evaluate solutions based on criteria like effectiveness and ethics.
Decision-Making:
Decide on the best solution by weighing pros and cons.
Implementation and Execution:
Implement the chosen solution with an action plan.
Iterative Feedback and Learning:
Adjust approach based on feedback during implementation.
Continuous Improvement:
Learn from experiences to improve problem-solving over time.
How Agi Is Smarter Than Humans In Discovering and Implementing New Knowledge
Enhanced Memory:
Have an extensive and perfect memory, allowing it to recall and use vast amounts of information instantly.
Processing Speed:
Analyze vast amounts of data and complex problems much faster than humans.
Integration:
Integrate information from diverse sources and disciplines more effectively, generating novel insights.
Pattern Recognition:
Detect subtle patterns and anomalies in data that humans might overlook.
Deep Learning:
Understand and learn from complex datasets, making connections and insights that are difficult for humans to grasp.
Hypothesis Generation:
Systematically generate and evaluate a vast number of hypotheses, including unconventional ones humans might not consider.
Simulations:
Run countless simulations of theoretical models quickly to test their validity.
Unbiased Exploration:
Explore hypotheses without cognitive biases that might influence human researchers.
Logical Consistency:
Maintain higher levels of logical consistency in reasoning, avoiding common cognitive fallacies and errors.
Advanced Problem-Solving:
Solve complex problems more effectively by using advanced algorithms and heuristic methods beyond human capability.
Feedback Loop:
Rapidly iterate and refine models based on new data, accelerating the cycle of discovery.
Innovative Thinking:
Generate truly novel ideas and solutions that go beyond conventional human thinking.
Continuous Operation:
Work continuously without breaks, accelerating the research process.
Innovations Needed For AGI
Hardware:
Better chips
Data centers
Energy production
Software:
Agents perform multi-step tasks and know what to do next for the task to be done without being asked to.
Self operating computer
Having every workflow application have the AI be able to use the tools rather than just give advice based on what it sees on the device and hears from the user.
Spoken Timelines: I didn't add links but you could just search what I said on Google.
Dan Schulman (former PayPal CEO): GPT-5 will be a freak out moment. 80% of the jobs out there will be reduced 80% in scope.
Sam Altman thinks GPT-4.5 will automate 100 million jobs globally.
In 2023, Sam Altman said he predicts job losses will begin in 2-3 years.
Sam Altman's AI Capabilities Projection:

• Multi-Modality: Somewhat with GPT 4o. Still needs an everything to everything model.
• Reasoning: Q-star, chain of thought, search tree. I’m sure more will come.
• Personalization: Most likely having the AI be trained on all your personal data by having it control your devices. (Bill Gates Interview)
• Reliability: Sam said that this is when the AI can always give you the best response. He remarks that if GPT-4 gives a good response 1 out of every 10k times, then he wants to ensure that one good response is given every time. (Bill Gates Interview)
• Agents: API calls with other apps. Ability to use tools in different applications.

AI that controls your computer is coming soon
Sam Altman said GPT 4 is really dumb. So he knows the next model is actually way better.
OpenAI is likely two years ahead of everyone.
OpenAI COO: Brad Lightcap

• We’ll get a major upgrade by May 2025 (Based on May 2024). Today’s systems are laughably bad.
• Models are capable of complex "work."
• OpenAI already has a desktop app with a conversational voice and can comprehend what’s on your screen. So they can be like your teammate.

Every company’s workflow would be reengineered by May 2026. Nvidia, Dell Are Building Their Own AI 'Factories' (Based on May 2024)
Project Stargate: Nuclear fusion to power the $100 billion data center to be released in 2028. This is likely for scaling for smarter models, make AI faster, cheaper, or getting it to as many hands as possible.
Many leaders in AI give AGI release dates between 2025-2030. Most people that think AI won't take jobs are thinking of todays tech for the future. They don't consider how AGI would be like for AI to take jobs. Like the required technology and how those innovations could be achieved. People don't consider how embodied humanoid robots with AGI could also eliminate many jobs. People think trade jobs are safe. NVIDIA's project groot is training robots in simulation. Who's to say that the robots can't learn to do all tasks. Maybe not in a year, but five years is a lot of progress with the rate AI is advancing. Even if we don't have AGI now, AI will be replacing jobs. If one person can use AI to do the work of one team, then those people who would have been on a team would be laid off. Especially when Agents roll around in 1-2 years.
Sometimes it really worries me about the people who go to college to get a high paying jobs, especially first gen college students from immigrant families. Imagine working hard for the dream of getting a high paying job only to be automated in six years. What happens to their drive? All their hard work for what? Sold a long gone dream and had the carpet pulled under them. In my opinion, even jobs like doctors could be automated if humanoid robots had embodied AGI. Sure it might not be wanted at first, but it has the potential too.
My Thoughts on AGI
AGI would just be the accumulation of all the different innovations needed to reach the requirements needed to meet the definition of what AGI is. Realistically, engineers could do this within six years. So even though I have a general idea of how AGI could be achieved by the end of the decade, I would just have to wait and see when these innovations are created.
Post Labor Info
Most people work to gain money because money is needed to survive and buy things that you want. The purpose of school is to provide people with a pathway to secure a high-paying job. When students say they work hard in school to be successful, it often means they want to get a high-paying career.
But if AI were to start taking over jobs, then our relationship with work would change. There would be mass unemployment, leading people to receive UBI. The government would be forced to give UBI unless they want societal collapse. No one would need to work to have money for survival and buying the things they want.
If everyone had free money, people would use the extra time on bettering their personal lives. They can spend more time with loved ones and do the things they want to do. There would be a paradigm shift in how society is set up. People wouldn’t have to work so hard at school or a job in the pursuit of money. A lot of people don’t like working anyway, especially since the cost of living is causing them to work harder and subsequently deal with mental health issues. Look at Gen Z doesn't want to work, antiwork, wage slavery, 9-5 rat race. Cost of living being unaffordable. People work so hard but can not get by. Hard work is not properly financially compensated and college grads can't find jobs. Meaning from work could be derived from work you want to do not work you do for a paycheck. Look at David Shapiro's YouTube channel for more info on Post-Labor and Post-AGI videos.
It would be better for the next generation of people born in this post-labor world. Nasa researchers found that 98% of 5-year-old children fell into the “genius category of imagination.” This number dropped to 12% for 15-year-olds and to 2% for adults. The reason for this drop is the education system killing creativity. But with the traditional education system gone, that generation is likely to remain geniuses.

I'm trialing the business license for CoPilot. The in-app applications are interesting, but I'm struggling to understand if CoPilot is presented / can be used as an alternative to Chatgpt?
Is there a general purpose chatbot application somewhere that I can use the same way I use chatgpt? The CoPilot stand-alone app seems limited to being a search alternative rather than a conversational partner.
I use chatgpt to prepare for conversations, plan projects, read and summarize PDFs (which copilot in word is unable to do)...
Is there a true chatgpt alternative in CoPilot, or they're at their core simply different services?

Hi everyone,I'm looking for a dedicated Python programming partner to learn and build projects with. My plan is to come up with a project idea, start working on it, and continuously apply new concepts we learn. By the end, we'll have a polished product that we can potentially monetize.
I'm in the GMT+2 time zone.
I'm only looking for one committed buddy to join me on this journey. If you're interested, please leave a comment or send me a direct message.

Fascism has a number of essential characteristics but the most distinct is palingenetic ultranationalism: The myth that the nation is an organic body composed of a downtrodden but authentic "common people" who have been betrayed, victimized, and derived of land and money by out-groups (especially Jews, LGBT folks, immigrants, and liberals), and the nation must be reborn and grown larger, phoenix-like, from the ashes of its downtrodden state through the cleansing fire of violence against those out-groups and their allies (especially their allies among the "common people") and the seizure of their land and property, regardless of how many "common people" must be sacrificed in this process of violent "purification"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palingenetic_ultranationalism
Palestinian nationalism has all these definitional features. Its central myth is that "the Palestinians" (whose language, Arabic, lacks the letter P) have been betrayed, oppressed, and deprived of their land and money by Jews, and "Palestine" must be reborn and grown larger, phoenix-like, from the ashes of its current corrupt theocracy through the cleansing fire of violence against Jews, LGBT people, and liberals (especially liberal Arabs who believe in co-existence with Jews and LGBT people), and all those who support them, regardless of how many human shields, child soldiers, and hospitals with bunkers underneath them must be sacrificed in this process of purification
This Palestinian ideological mythos entirely reverses victim and perpetrator
In the real world, there is an extensive and well corroborated archeological record (starting with the Merneptah Stele) showing the continuous residence of the indigenous Jewish inhabitants in the land between the river and the sea, but that Stele alone independently establishes their presence for at least the last 3200 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merneptah_Stele
In contrast, the Arab-Israeli conflict started relatively recently, with the battle of Tel Hal on March 1st 1920, when an Arab militia attacked the Jewish-owned farms at Tel Hal in an attempt to find French soldiers, eventually burning it to the ground. Prior to that there was no organized violence between Arabs and Israelis in the region:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tel_Hai
The next incident in the Arab-Israel conflict was the Nebi Musa riots a month later, on April 8th 1920, when Amin al-Husayni (who later allied with the Nazis and was a big fan of Hitler) gave an incendiary speech from the balcony of the Arab Club, kicking off what resulted in an Muslim mob of around 60,000 ransacking of the Jewish quarter of Jerusalem:
https://www.palquest.org/en/historictext/6709/palin-commission-report
That's what started the war. It started with Arab people committing mob violence against Jewish people and that has never stopped to this day. Genocide is what Nazi and Communist-inspired Arab mobs and armies have repeatedly tried to do to the indigenous Jewish people of the land between the river and the sea, starting from the 1920 Nebi Musa riots, and continuing on through 1948, 1967, 1973, 1982, 1987, 2000, and most recently on October 7th
They keep trying to eradicate Jewish people off the land their ancestors lived in continuously for thousands of years, they keep getting their asses kicked every time they try it, and they deserve it every time they do
This makes sense when you understand the history of the region, and how Arab-ness was imposed by force (along with Islam) by multiple relatively historically recent waves of conquering Muslim settler-colonists
The Ottoman Empire was the culmination of those waves of Muslim settler-colonists, and after World War I it collapsed and in much of the Middle East was followed by Pan-Arab nationalism, which was a remarkably Nazi project. The founder of modern Palestinian religious nationalism (Amin al Husseini) was a close ally and personal friend of Hitler
https://time.com/4084301/hitler-grand-mufi-1941/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-official-record-what-the-mufti-said-to-hitle
After waging and escalating series of genocidal pogroms against the indigenous Jewish people (culminating in their alliance with the Nazis in World War II) and getting their asses kicked, Palestinian nationalism (as distinct from pan-Arab nationalism) emerged a fundamentally Soviet project
That is not an exaggeration. 100 years ago most people in the region defined themselves as Ottoman, by their village, or by their religion. Arab nationalism is a relatively new socially constructed weapon, made up by unambiguous fascists (like Sati Al-Husri, Abdulrahman Badawi, and Amin al-Husseini) and communists (like Fawaz Taraboulsi or Suhayl Idris) to mobilize hate against and justify the murder of their imperfect but much more reasonable democratic enemies (who also happened by the enemies of the Nazis and Soviets)
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/liberation-arabs-global-left
Palestinian nationalism, as opposed to Arab nationalism, was created by the KGB after the repeated defeats of the USSR's Arab-nationalist proxies in 1948 and 1967. The blueprint for the PLO Charter was drafted in Moscow in 1964 and was approved by 422 Palestinian representatives hand-selected by the KGB. At that time, the USSR was in the business of creating "people’s liberation" fronts. The KGB founded the PLO as well as the National Liberation Army of Bolivia in 1964 led by Ernesto "Che" Guevara, and the National Liberation Army of Colombia in 1965
The “Palestinian Liberation Army” was contrived by the KGB, much like the KGB devised the Bolivian National Liberation Army, Greek People's Liberation Army, Malayan National Liberation Army, etc etc. It created this Arab army in the early 1960s following the failure of the troops of various Soviet-puppet-ruled Arab states to destroy Israel. The KGB drafted the Palestinian National Charter and handpicked the 422 members of the PLO council that approved it. As the KGB's director said at the time, "We needed to instill a Nazi-style hatred for the Jews throughout the Islamic world, and to turn this weapon of the emotions into a terrorist bloodbath against Israel". Likewise, both the Palestine National Covenant and Palestinian Constitution were drafted in Moscow
https://stanfordreview.org/deception-palestinian-nationalism/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_involvement_in_regime_change
The most popular Palestinian faction currently, Hamas, pointedly opposes multi-ethnic pluralistic democracy. That's what Israel already is and they hate it. Hamas also explicitly opposes a two-state solution, wants to expel and murder Jews, and impose an Islamic theocracy by force
The founding covenant of Hamas, which they created their terrorist organization around in 1988, opens with a message that precisely encapsulates Hamas’s master plan. Quoting Hassan al-Banna, the Egyptian founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is a constituent member (Article 2), the document proclaims, “Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.”
After some general explanatory language about Hamas’s religious foundation and noble intentions, the covenant comes to the Islamic Resistance Movement’s raison d’être: the slaughter of Jews. “The Day of Judgement will not come about,” it proclaims, “until Moslems fight the Jews, when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Moslems, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and k-ll him.”
Article 11 spells out why this annihilation of Jews is required. Palestine is described as an “Islamic Waqf”—an endowment predicated on Muslim religious, education, or charitable principles and therefore inviolate to any other peoples or religions. Accordingly, the territory that now encompasses Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank is:
consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgement Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up … This Waqf remains as long as earth and heaven remain. Any procedure in contradiction to Islamic Sharia, where Palestine is concerned, is null and void.
In sum, any compromise over this land, including the moribund two-state solution, much less coexistence among faiths and peoples, is forbidden.
https://web.archive.org/web/20231010215457/https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/hamas-covenant-israel-attack-war-genocide/675602/
And Hamas has the support of somewhere between 65-80% of the Palestinian people
https://www.awrad.org/en/article/10719/Wartime-Poll-Results-of-an-Opinion-Poll-Among-Palestinians-in-the-West-Bank-and-Gaza-Strip
To understand the Palestinian strategy in this latest phase of their forever war, see here:
How Hamas Uses Civilians as a Weapon - The Dark Side of Clausewitzian War
https://deadcarl.substack.com/p/how-hamas-uses-civilians-as-a-weapon
Both Palestinian leadership and street have repeatedly acting as willing pawns, first of the Nazis, then of the Soviets, and now of the contemporary fascist Axis that includes Russia, China, and Iran. The historical Palestinian embrace of Nazi, Soviet, Islamist, and modern Axis fascism (and their rejection of democracy and equal rights) only makes their rationale for doing do so, and the nature of their project, more clear
In this context, Biden's support for Israel should not be surprising. Palestinian-ism is fascist, and everyone who understands and opposes fascism should oppose it

Ok I was speaking with a friend of mine about this today and things started to click, so I want to present my theory and hear people’s thoughts because I am by no means an economist or politician or anything and I want to know if I’m way off base or not. In other words, I need advice on my theory on real estate taxes and how they’re impacting current renters rates…
This is purely speculative without supporting evidence.
So, Boston gets a huuuuge portion of the revenue through property taxes, and of that number a huuuuge portion comes from commercial businesses real estate. But in comes Covid telling people to work from home for “a while.” What’s a business to do? They don’t want to get rid of their properties because they’ll need them eventually, but they’re so expensive. So it’s time for plan B. Layoffs, yup. Downsizing, yeah. Closing completely, mhmm. All of these things are happening, and it’s driving the cost of commercial real estate down, which in turn drives down the taxes earned from each property.
Meanwhile, Boston has been spending those taxes like crazy, and who could blame ‘em! They had a health crisis to manage, on top of all the other projects going on (looking at you mbta, you really botched that green line job huh pal…).
So the money is going out faster than the taxed businesses can replenish it. Fast forward to today and Boston is in the red by a lot. Like a lot a lot, projected to be 1.4B deficit in five years. On top of that, the damage is done and people realize they don’t need to commute to work and they don’t want these offices, leaving the businesses holding the bag on what appears to be poor investments on paper. Last I checked businesses are far better at lobbying than individuals, are they about to pass the buck to residents? What’s Mayor Wu to do?
Well, unsurprisingly taxes went up. Commercial real estate went up, as did residential taxes. On top of that, the values of these residential properties also went up, making those taxes more expensive.
Now Mayor Wu has filed legislation - not passed, just filed - to try and protect those residential property owners by allowing for a rather substantial tax exemption… if you live in the property you own. Ya know who doesn’t live in their own properties. The landlords… well, typically.
So, regardless of if Mayor Wu’s legislation is passed, landlords are looking at a tax increase no matter what, and boooooy howdy they ain’t gunna be the ones paying it, all you are. This is why you see landlords asking for substantial rent increases, getting shot down, then listing the place for even more. But it gets worse.
The deficit of taxes within Boston is so great, it’s unlikely that property taxes for businesses or residents will ever go down anytime soon, only increase. So what are the landlords to do? Some will weather the storm, but I think a lot of them will sell, and I think Mayor Wu is hoping for this, but I foresee it backfiring. We aren’t talking about the major real estate owners property conglomerates selling, nor are we talking about the schools selling either, I’m talking about the yuppy rich white lady down on the cape that has a few rental properties and never takes care of them. She’s selling. But to who? I think the hope is that potential home owners will buy these properties, incentivized by the tax exemptions, but this us where my skepticism comes from. There’s absolutely noooo way that’s happening when their main bidding competitors are colleges, whose resources are practically unlimited, and real estate companies who have started renting by the room and not by the apartment. And if all else fails, just pull a seaport and buy, demo, build.
Let’s review. Boston is in debt and it’s only getting worse. Commercial real estate value is continuing to drop. Taxes on those properties are increasing but it’s not enough to offset the spending like it used to. Businesses gunna shutter. Residential real estate is increasing in value. Taxes on those properties will be unmanageable for the run-o-the-mill homeowner. Wu is trying to keep home owners, so landlords get disproportionately taxed. Renters are left holding this very heavy bag. Oh yeah, those renters also have like absolutely zero protections against any of this.
Let’s skip ahead a few more years and let the crazy conspiracy theorist in me run rampant: Taxes continue to go up for everyone, so a whole lotta businesses are gunna close (I mean, did you see what just happened to Tavern in the Square this week? Yeah, expect more of that…), landlords keep raising their prices, tuition keeps climbing, unaffordable housing keeps getting built, there’s a mass exodus of businesses leaving Boston, and the businesses that do stay can’t pay their… no, they can, but they won’t pay their employees a salary to live here. They just won’t, and why should they? It’s ungodly expensive to live here and equally as atrocious to run a business here, you’d have to live with your parents rent free for years on a Boston salary just to save enough for a competitive down payment for a home in the city, and forget about renting and saving… your boss’s argument is that they commute in from the cape everyday so why can’t you? Audible eye roll… The schools love this, keep the poor out and only allow for the wealthiest students and their very rich papas and mamas to pay for everything, they look more prestigious than ever, meanwhile I’d wager that at least 1/10 of those students are here to party and get fucked up. Fucked up on what though? TITS literally just closed, liquor licenses are obscenely expensive, you can expect to see more Hecate’s than Silhouette’s because the clientele will absolutely spend $100 to have some smoke rolling out of the glass… The renters gotta make a quick buck and sell their pain killers from an injury the year prior, get kids hooked but they can’t afford anything, so they turn to tranq. Meanwhile those same renters, who are respectable hard working nurses and teachers and small business owners and all kinds of people who should NOT be in this situation, they all have their price jacked up AGAIN to mmm I’m thinking 3500/studio will be the going rate by now, and so these renters are forced to “move” but the question is how? Everyone wants a first, last, security, brokers, and a U-Haul, no one can afford to move, or save for that matter, so they have to leave the city. If they’re lucky enough to have a place to go that is, otherwise everyone else is going to be turning methadone mile into a methadone marathon.
Boston is well on its way to make Philly and San Francisco look like saints in comparison.

2304-2306 Operation Orange Blade: This is a two year short war, fought between the neo-national Separatist the Rangers of Anger, against the Tribes of New Canaan leading the NCR to aid their ally to secure their borders.
2300-2308 Operation Brass Thunder: A slow burn clean up effort to stabilize western and south western Colorado after large amounts of refugees and fatalists flood into the region because of the Wars of Bonita and Escondito.
Side note: it was a violence heavy conflict due to large about of BOS deserters in the region that created powerful militias, use recovered weapons cashes leading to an unexpected brutal slog.
2310-2315 Operation Mountain Reign; Establishing infrastructure through out the Colorado Territory and establishing an alliance network within the region.
2310: The Maxson Madness/ Operation Freezing Icarus
A Impromptu raid and neighborhood shootout of a local ba grill being ran by and housing alleged R.O.T. sympathizers this event ended up setting the ground work for the Venturan civil war of 2313, after several member fled the country and went to Ventura.
2310- ongoing Operation Desert Rain: The Long range regional focus on maintaining stability and peace in and between the allied territories and this extensions while monitoring the Fatalist cult.
2313-2315 The Venturan Civil War: Not to be confused with the War in Ventura, the Venturan Civil War was a conflict that started after the Republic of Texas withdraws support of the fledgling country leading to mass panic and war to ensue in the power struggle. This event was ended by the NCR invasion in 2315 Side note: The NCR would use this opportunity to get the ROT Border with little resistance after hearing the group if Fugitives were spotted around the Ventura area.
2315 The mobilization for the invasion of ROT: Due to the ever-increasing pressure from the Fatalist Cult and their second somewhat loss after fighting two ideological wars against the ROT, an invasion was launched after a Red Raider group was caught trying to sneak into the town of Anonci. Before landing within ROT territory a standby was called due to a weighing political pressure back in NCR against possible ten year long war.
Notable events: the dissolving of the MWBoS ROT Alliance: Due to unexplained circumstances, the Mid-Western Brotherhood of Steel, after mysterious learning about the ROT involvement with the back door funding of the Fatalist Cult and the wild nature of their actions the alliance was broke and War was declared. 2312
The MWBoS-FC War The prolonged finally declared war against the FC. 2312
The NCR-MWBoS concurrent Non Aggression pact ROT/ War effect This discussion series ended with the NCR and MWBoS enacting a nonaggression pact and a semi-alliance as they both declared war against the ROT.
Side note: By this point, the Republic of Texas had expanded into Oklahoma, as well as parts of Louisiana. It had overstretched most of its resources, and trying to keep all areas properly equipped was now a well and weakened state that the FC was willing to turn on their once benefactors.
Additional side note with all these failing and no backers it’s was only a matter of time before subtractions broke off and multifaceted civil war would dissolve the fragile union.
2315-2318 Operation Flash Reaction: The stabilization of Civil War Ventura As part of the invasion plan taking over the only possible ally of the Republic of Texas was mandatory though Ventura has fallen to multiple war lords lead factions it’s largest was still looking to get into the ROT’s good graces. This but if knowledge lead to a Special Interest Task Force being sent into directly eliminate the leader of the largest war lord faction who technically had the remaining standing government and the majority of resources under his control.
Additional side note:
After the dissolving of the ROT the plan to stabilize Ventura took the majority of the newly directed effort. This endeavor took three years but only because it was difficult to squash all the small pockets of resistance across the region. With no hope the ROT would come to help or any other nation to assist, the smaller groups later surrender or fled the nation.
2319-2325 The Rise of the Grizzly Brotherhood and their Clash with the NCR
After the Venturan Civil War and Operation Flash Reaction a couple of the remnants of several different factions came together to form that most terrifying alliance in the entire Western United States. The Grizzly Brotherhood. This Masterminded collective set up shop in the great expanse of Wyoming just out of the NCRs reach but not for long. After a scout patrol ambushed a group of NCR Soldiers a war was waged between the two factions that lasted six years.

Last updated 5/21/24 (Any updated servers at bottom)
Anyone stumbling upon this: About 3 months ago I literally went through every single community server, empty/full/whatever, and added any that sounded interesting, and didn't have crazy ping to Favorites (My region is Northeast US (NJ), FYI). I repeated the process twice. There are still a bunch of good ones out there (I've also had many solid ones in my favs for quite some time) I don't know if anyone cares but been around since Beta & have run a server before.
For reference:

• Good servers (to me): Emphasis on not being a dickhead, actually gets players, if running custom content it has to be tastefully done, not bloated & tacky, ping <100, anti-teamstacking measures
• "Bad" servers/what will not be here ( again this is just my opinion, also a couple exceptions ): Instant Respawn, 1 map or game mode only, more than 32 players, RTD, "friendly"/no combat servers, unmoderated racist/toxic BS
• Servers/settings I'm indifferent towards: Crits/Nocrits, Vanilla vs. Custom, Average skill level, 24 vs. 32 player, NSFW sprays, centered around niche/"weird" fandoms, Bullet/Damagespread, Class limits

Scroll down a few lines to my "To keep it simple..." header for the best ones. The following link is a much fuller list:

• Green line ones are my seal of approval
• Pink line ones I either haven't checked out as much but seem to be ok, or have 1 big issue or 2 I think holds them back from being fully recommended
• No underline = probably seemed interesting, haven't checked out at all, or never gets full

Full server list: https://i.imgur.com/qY2gCH9.png

To keep it simple, I think the best ones right now (for me are):

tiny kitty's girl pound - friendly community, runs really solid, nice-looking custom maps, Meme Maps Wednesday is a blast, always has people in it, just be wary of nsfw furry sprays (yeah I know...put cl_spraydisable 1 in console to disable)
1st server: 74.91.115.12:27015 2nd server: 74.91.113.115:27015
OPRAH's PETROL STATION - Friendly community, always has people in it, no goofy Instant Respawn which has no place in payload yet half of all community server owners see fit to do that, pre-round scramble
108.181.63.51:27015
-EOTL- Payload - same deal
74.91.114.223:27015
redsun.tf - This community is the poster child for tastefully modded custom game modes, and is very active. It's very well maintained & polished and even though I may not enjoy every game mode I've been very impressed by this server network (esp. as a former highly-modded community server owner). The EU one fills up most of the time, and I deal with the ping because it's a cool community (it even runs a Battle Royale mode that is surprisingly well-made). Their server "shop" is extremely impressive with the amount of customization available (Taunts, player skins, custom voicelines). I'd recommend downloading their asset pack here as it's fairly sizeable to DL upon server connect:
EU (actually gets players): 141.95.28.56:27015 US: 66.206.13.139:27015
Trigger Happy Gamers (EU) - Trigger Happy Gamers have been around forever and even though they are in the UK I deal with the ping to play with them because they are an awesome, fun, friendly community. Their main server gets reliably full from around 1 PM - 3 PM EST every day, and on the weekends a little longer. Their Nocrits server also gets full Saturday
main: 87.98.254.85:27015 Nocrits (gets full Saturdays @ 1 PM - 2 PM): 87.98.254.85:27025
Fucked in the Head - Another community that has been around forever. To be honest, they have equal respawn on Red & Blu, even for Payload, which I hate with a searing passion, HOWEVER, the regulars are entertaining af and give off vibes of drunk buddies goofing off and not giving a fuck that it almost offsets it. It's also decently populated.
216.52.148.223:27015
Skial Payload & Casual servers * - I never got the hate for this server network, decent spawn times, Halloween mode year round, no power tripping admins, feels like a bunch of randoms having a good time. You can also equip any weapon or cosmetic. The Payload+ EU in particular has some really chill/cool regulars, Dustbowl+ US some interesting/funny peeps. Payload US generally decent also. Their Autoscramble is also on point.
Payload+ EU 91.216.250.226:27015 Payload+ US 91.216.250.11:27015 Dustbowl+ US * (has become very stack-prone lately) 91.216.250.12:27015 ~~~~~
~Trying to get the word out that unlike their other servers, Casual is very barebones- no Instant Respawn, no RTD, normal map pool:
Casual NY 91.216.250.34:27015 Casual US 91.216.250.40:27015 Casual LA 91.216.250.21:27015 ~~~~~ Harvest (32-pl), also: 91.216.250.18:27015 ~~~~~
If you are super super new, their server network might be worth checking out, even if RTD, 2fort & other weird mods aren't my cup of tea: https://www.skial.com/servers/
Uncletopia - Pretty standard Casual experience except the skill level is generally higher, though it seems to be evening out honestly. And tbh from my experience people in these servers seem pretty cool. If you're looking for Vanilla I'd say this is your best bet.
https://uncletopia.com/servers
Southern Cross Gaming (Rainbow Swirl in particular) - Stumbled across this & played 1 round with these guys running a cool custom mode but apparently they run stock maps as well as custom maps/game modes. Their rules had a huge emphasis on keeping it fun & being respectful and everyone seemed really cool & laidback. It was full at peak time on the weekend. They also have other servers, even in other games & seem to have been around awhile:
IP: furfortress.com:27016 Site: https://www.scg.wtf/servers#team_fortress_2
ciggyland 18+ LGBT+ Furry server run by puppygirls
Funny, chill vibes, lots of custom maps. Seems to get full around peak time. Another diamond in the rough I discovered recently.
74.91.115.82:27015
Bad Weapon Rehabilitation (Vanilla US)
A really solid rebalancing of all weapons in-game. Nothing really feels overpowered or underpowered anymore, also fun things like flames stay on surfaces & I think spy or engy can radar enemies within a few feet or something to his team? It's really fun and gets full. Here's the site with IPs and stuff (The US server gets full around peak time, esp. on weekends)
(Yes this is the website): http://74.91.126.159/
redstar.gg - Arena server, the owner ComradeYazoo seems pretty dedicated to starting it up and I hop in whenever I can. Believe it or not it's still very fun with little people but it's gotten pretty packed a couple times. It also has like every good custom arena map, and scrambles if a team wins 3 in a row. North America I believe.
204.12.240.186:27015
Step in the Arena - Another Arena server I see get randomly populated on Saturday into Sundays around 11 P.M. - 2 A.M. EST. Probably missing a Discord announcement or something from a group of buddies.
172.240.237.2:27015
The Furry Pound - Some people list this one as one of the best non-UT for Vanilla TF2, however the one time I decided to give it a try I was met with some weird overly dramatic BS happening in Voice chat, and I heard someone else give a similar criticism the other day here. BUT, I've also seen people say they're ok. Might depend on what players/admins are on maybe, IDK:
Main server: thefurrypound.org:27015
shounic trenches (100-player TF2) - This goes against everything in my being but it's so unique and while not my cup of tea it's definitely a bunch of others'. Some maps such as pl_dbz_b5 & pl_dustbowl were created for this player count & people seem to have a lot of fun there. Again, I think 100 players is too much but I can't argue with how popular it is.
45.62.160.71:27015
UGC High Tower servers - They run no carts, so it's the TDM High Tower everyone's always dreamed of. They also run Instant Respawn and on any other map I hate that setting with a searing passion but because it's reworked as TDM I feel it actually improves the gameplay (put "high tower" including the space, and without quotes in the search box for a list of 'em in the following link):
https://www.ugc-gaming.net/servers/tf2/
UGC also runs other servers which I cannot vouch for but might be worth looking into.
Tropic Crisis Official Servers (NA, SA, EU)
These are the official servers for the Tropic Crisis project which is very very cool. I looked up their stats and most get full around standard peak hours.
Atlanta 155.138.213.202:27015 São Paulo 216.238.106.29:27015 Minsk 86.57.152.101:27025 Buenos Ares 45.235.99.105:27038
UEAKCrash's House of Nerds - official server of the mapmaker responsible for several very fun official maps. Runs a lot of very cool custom maps, Gets full on Fri, Sat night (must have a Discord/Twitch announcement I'd assume).
74.91.124.162:27015
Wolves Den - I'm going to make an exception to the "no "friendly"/non-combat server" thing (even though people seem down for combat ~50% of the time) because everyone just always seems to be having fun here. If you want to just screw around on interesting trade-type maps this is the place. Plus they have hilarious custom player models like velociraptors. (Has RTD)
162.248.92.33:27015
Samwiz1's Stupid Server - Another server I feel obligated to mention despite feeling like it's too much personally. Very goofy and people seem to have fun there.
173.237.52.135:27015
Swoocehut 2024 Workshop - Seems to be tied to a Discord as far as getting full, but runs a lot of custom maps apparently:
149.28.248.101:27015 Discord: https://swoocehut.com/discord Map rotation: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2802508136
swagtown epic maps only no random crits 18+ - Suggested by someone on Steam Discussions. Looks alright- seems tied to a Discord as far as getting players, but got full last Tuesday @ standard peak hours. Looks like it runs stock & custom maps.
79.127.234.193:22136 Discord: [https://discord.gg/DTH3sMWsH8](discord.gg/DTH3sMWsH8)
TF2's Official VS Saxton Hale LOOS - 'Nuff said. Very laidback goofy atmosphere.
205.178.177.24:27027
GFL Clan (maybe???) - Someone said these guys are chill too, though I hate 2fort with a passion:
https://gflclan.com/forum/26-team-fortress-2/
Kogasatopia if you're desperate. They run some really fun mods, and solid (especially good gimmicky) custom maps, but their community is 4chan edgelords that like to say racial slurs. However their server is almost always full of people. Again, if you're truly desperate. Just mute chat & voice I guess by entering this in console (replace with 1's to re-enable)- hud_saytext_time 0;voice_enable 0
74.91.116.171:27015
The Weeabootique if you're desperate. Pretty much the same description as above. Mute chat & voice by entering this in console (replace with 1's to re-enable)- hud_saytext_time 0;voice_enable 0
198.245.61.57:27015
Custom Weapons servers (including a guide to the best one via TF2Classic)
More Arena Servers
pic of a dog

This is going to be super long :’) So i (19F) was friends with this guy (20M), (let’s call him Kyle) since 2020. When we met i was going through a breakup and he was in a very serious long term relationship. We became friends pretty quickly but it wasn’t any kind of close friendship, just surface level talking and joking around. Eventually i got with his friend (20M) with whom i broke up pretty quickly and we kind of eventually grew distant.
Years went by and we reconnected again when i was graduating and decided to plan a trip with my friend(let’s call her Katy) to a city where he studies in (he moved to a different country after graduating school). Eventually Katy couldn’t make it and him and i started to talk a lot, facetimes, texts, had each other’s pictures as wallpapers etc. He sent me a huge bouquet of flowers for my birthday since he couldn’t make it (which was pretty sweet :) ) A month later i came to visit him (the trip lasted 4 days) and i swear this was trip was one of the best times of my life. He was so gentle, funny, caring and all of the wonderful things you can think of. It wasn’t lovebombing, he was just absolutely wonderful. We did not sleep together because i have sexual trauma and asked him to take it slow and he was so understanding and kind about it, i’ll never forget it. By the end of my visit he decided to come with me to the city where i live (and well, he used to live) to see his family. So i ask him, “what are we? I really like you and i’m ready to try long distance for you” , to which he said that he didn’t plan a relationship and hoped that i would understand that long distance is difficult but he’d try it as well. So we agree on boyfriend and girlfriend.
on the ride to our home country things turned sour and i noticed he was a little distant, but didn’t give it much notice, everyone has their bad days. A day later he was very avoidant and tells me at a birthday party that he doesn’t want to be together still and wants “a less serious relationship” i felt absolutely horrible. The next few months he texts me once per day and i got fed up and just cut things off.
After some time Katy meets up with him and convinces him to see me to “fix things”. While she did that i told another girl, let’s call her Sasha, that i have this ex that i’ve been thinking about for ages and how much i miss him and how much potential we had. She was very understanding about it and shared her experience with a similar thing. Later on Sasha proposed a social project to me and Katy. We agreed and Katy suggested we invite Kyle to work with us.
Kyle joined us quickly. We started talking and flirting again even though i was a a bit defensive and mad (obviously). He then invited me for coffee to talk. We met and basically to spare you the details he told me than all he wanted was to sleep with me but eventually caught feelings and it made things complicated. i asked if there was a chance to try again and Kyle said that he wasn’t ready and suggested we stay friends. i agreed since i didn’t want to lose him again. What happened next is that Sasha started flirting and talking to him right in front of my nose. I got mad and called her out. She made everyone gang up on me and Katy in the project and we were kicked out. Out of solidarity with Katy (the project didn’t mean to me as much as it meant to her) i blocked everyone including Kyle. It’s been two years and i miss him every day. I don’t wanna betray Katy nor do i think it would be a good idea to text him and share my feelings, so i’m in constant tortures :’)
TL;DR Every day i think about someone who gave me the best days of my life yet eventually ghosted me and was mean to my friend. We’ve been on a no contact for two years, but i still miss him every day. what do i do?

Most sources site FDR’s “New Deal” in 1932 as the beginning of public housing with the first project building being the Techwood Homes in Atlanta built In 1936.
But no.
This was Milwaukee’s vision originally. Under socialist mayor Daniel Hoan, the City of Milwaukee implemented the country's first public housing project in 1923 creating the “Garden Homes District” 105 housing units for WW1 Vets and other working class family’s. The plan was an early rent to own type of deal. The family’s had full homes and Garages. (Nothing like the 500 floor project buildings Chicago and New York started building) the plan for Garden Homes fizzled out only 2 years after forming. However, this was the creation Milwaukee Housing Authority.
Milwaukee had the idea to do public housing the right way. FDR Took that idea and Public Housing turned into Cabrini Green, Queens Bridge, Jordan Downs etc
If you ever are on the northside of Milwaukee ride through this area you can actually SEE what they were trying to do. The homes still stand. 26th & Atkinson. So although the full idea didn’t work the vision came from Milwaukee.

I’m planning on having my original 3ds modded soon and shop doing it loading their library to it. However… they seemed to be of the opinion it wasent worth modding my older 3ds xl and instead I should consider getting the update version. Apparently there are some games that just won’t work? The 250 or so (in my local market) for the c stick equipped 3ds xl is just a bit steep right now, especially since I have my old one. Is it worth holding off and finding a way to get a new 3ds xl? Or am I not really missing out on much?

First I want to start this by thanking every 6.1 thousand of you who viewed the first episode of KFW. That is almost as many people who watched the actual first episode of the show according to TEW 2020. Crazy. However, I also don't know how reddit figures out views. If someone needs to click on the post or if even a scroll by works. Either way I am incredibly humbled. I honestly thought the post would get, at most, 100 views and a majority of people to leave a dislike.
I had no idea if people would care about an insignificant wrestling company from the Cornellverse. Rest assured I am ready for KFW news tomorrow and I am hard at work writing the review for episode 2 of KFW. I just wanted to answer another round of questions that no one has ever asked.
The website... Does it work? Does it not work?
As far I can tell it works. It really does. I only live three minutes away from a public library so I wrote down the web address and went down there today. It 100% worked. It also worked when I texted my sister the web address. In doing research it seems a year ago that Reddit banned google sites. No one knows why but for some reason around that time whenever someone tried to link a google sites link it doesn't show.
I have looked into buying an actual domain, to make a real website, but that is way more work then google sites and it costs money. Not a whole lot, sure, but enough to give me pause. At the end of the day this is a silly project for my own amusement and hopefully yours.
The website if anyone wants to give it a try the long way is...
sites.google and then .com/view/kfw-com
you obviously have to combine the first section with the second. I tried it with an incognito mode on my wives email and it worked so here is hoping. If not I guess the website will be for my benefit.
The websites future?
I really hope it works for you all because I have big things planned for the website. Not only does the news get updated, the roster page, champion page, and the review page but its going to be going through an overhaul. IF you can access it then you can see by clicking on a member of the roster that it just gives the basic Cornellverse backstory for the character in question. Over the next few weeks I plan on going one by one down the roster page and updating their backstories so they have my flair to it. Its going to be a lot of work but I am excited. I have some other plans but that is a surprise.
So is it all website related?
Mostly but I do have things in the work. Technically in my save I am just about to book the Resurrection PPV so I am quite a ways away. So I will be writing reviews, news stories that correlate with what is going on in KFW (sometimes months down the line), and I am reaching out to my brother who works on indie games. I am trying to see if he is willing (if i pay him) to make the opening intro of KFW a reality. I think it would be a really fun thing to see. That is a pipe dream though that will, probably never happen.
If you have any questions or the website doesn't work let me know. If the website doesn't work for whatever reason then its just doomed.

Paramount: Deal Rumors Aside, What About The Operations? Can The Company Turn A Profit?
May 21, 2024 2:41 PM ET
Summary
Paramount Global remains my worst investment, but I still believe in its potential for success.
Paramount's "lack of scale" is not the reason for its underperformance as it spends about as much on content as industry leader Netflix.
Paramount's loss last year was largely the result of one-off writedowns, both domestically and internationally. These losses will not repeat going forward.
Paramount's streaming operation suffers not from lack of scale, but an abundance of overload waste, which may be alleviated under new management.
The sports slate remains best-in-class, and CBS is still the leader in broadcast scripted. CBS Television City in Los Angeles, Ca, USA. JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA) (NASDAQ:PARAA) remains my worst investment. Let's just get that clear from the start. I said two years ago it was madness not to buy Paramount. That was wrong, wrong, wrong. The fact that I recommended against buying the new Warner Discovery at the same time, and heeding that warning saved a lot of money, makes me feel a little better, but not much.
And no, the fact that Warren Buffett made the exact same mistake as me doesn't help much, either. Mr. Buffett and I are about to part ways, anyway. He is now completely sold out of Paramount, while I am hanging in. Yes, I am still buying. Get all the ribbing out of your systems, and then read on.
Although a few rounds remain to be played in the game, it is no longer inconceivable that none of the various deal permutations that have been put forward for Paramount will pan out, and that it will continue as an independent company. Essentially, Redstone will block a deal with Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) and Sony Group Corporation (SONY) and the 'B' shareholders will litigate a Skydance deal to death.
Because so many Seeking Alpha articles are already offering a blow-by-blow analysis of the deal talks - and I absolutely encourage you to read them - I wanted to turn back for just a minute to a more in-depth look at Paramount's actual operations. If it stays independent, can it turn itself around?
Scale Is Not The Issue I'm angry. Usually, when an investment goes wrong, I can manage to be philosophical or even dispassionate about it. Risks of the trade, can't win 'em all, pick your maxim.
But this one is really getting to me. I'm sure part of that is simply the sheer amount of my portfolio that has suffered - I bet a lot more on Paramount than I did on my typical investment, so sure was I that it had the tools needed for success. Fortunately, some of my other media investments have worked out much, much better, or I'd really be hurting. In fact, my Netflix buy has repaired all the damage my Paramount buy has done.
Still, I'm unusually angry, partly because of the sheer amount lost. But it's also that I still don't believe there is anything wrong with Paramount, at its core. It has become quite commonplace to speak of Paramount's "lack of scale" as the reason for its apparent impending demise, or at least subsumption. But I would still argue that that isn't born out by the numbers. Paramount spent roughly $16 billion on content in 2023, the same total as 2022, when $4 billion of it was spent on streaming. That is only slightly less than Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) which leads the industry in market cap and performance, if not in spending. While the gap with other studio peers is larger, I'm not sure spending at Netflix levels equals a "lack of scale."
What's more, a lot of that extra spending by other traditional industry players like Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) and The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is not spending that investors should necessarily cheer. As I've explained before, Paramount's lower spending total is almost entirely accounted for by its far more profitable approach to sports rights; a lot of that extra spending that Disney and Warner are doing isn't particularly profitable or even sensible.
What then, does account for Paramount's underperformance?
Stock Performance That depends on which underperformance you're talking about. First, the stock price. Paramount cut its dividend in spring 2023. That announcement, with its Q1 earnings, was enough to cause half of the past-year decline in a single day. Paramount went from $21 to $16 with the dividend cut and was still at $16 as late as December.
Since then, the other half of the decline has reflected the increasing evidence that Paramount is more or less ready to throw in the towel, and intends to be a distressed seller to another studio or private equity firm soon. More specifically, it is actually Shari Redstone, who exercises control over Paramount through her 77.3% share of Paramount's Class A voting stock, who is ready to call it quits. The perception that she has no leverage and will be forced to accept a fire sale offer has driven the stock lower.
Operations All that, however, merely explains the stock market decline; what is the operational explanation for Paramount's troubles? The company reported a $600 million loss for full year 2023. How is it that one of the Big Five movie studios, with the most popular of the Big Four broadcast networks, the most popular show on cable (Yellowstone) and the only profitable sports slate in American television, can't make money?
Accounting Element First, we need to acknowledge that there are some accounting factors in that 2023 loss. Paramount took a "programming charge," i.e., a write-down of the value of programming assets, of roughly $2.4 billion in Q1 and Q2 last year. That is money that would ordinarily be amortized over a period of years - it's mostly streaming originals, which Paramount usually amortizes over a 4-year period - that instead saw its red ink taken all at once. Had it been amortized normally, Paramount would have reported an operating profit of roughly $1.2 billion, more or less identical to 2022, instead of reporting an operating loss of the same amount.
Still, that write-down reflects the fact that the content isn't performing well, so those losses were always going to happen, and they're quite real; the accounting change is simply a timing issue. So Paramount is operationally deficient, even if perhaps not quite as operationally deficient as this one-time write-down makes it look. We cannot dismiss Paramount's operational issues by putting them down to accounting distortions.
TV Scripted Content Difficulties Paramount did not break down the programming charge, but outside reports have about half of it owing to the integration of Showtime in Paramount+ as a single service. It's not entirely clear which side of the ledger those losses are coming from; one of the less understood things about merging services is that it potentially makes content on both sides less valuable as it is replaced by more popular content from the other side. Showtime's Q1 2023 viewership was very top-heavy, with just two shows, Yellowjackets and Your Honor constituting 30% of all viewership. Presumably, those two shows reduced the value of some Paramount+ existing content while the rest of Showtime's library may have suffered from competition with P+ content.
Regardless of the exact source, Paramount's content is not performing. That's a little surprising considering that, as I said, CBS content is actually quite popular on the linear side. In fact, in the earnings call following the annual report now-former CEO Bob Bakish reported that CBS had the top 16 scripted programs and 18 of the top 20 in the first week of post-strike broadcasts. Paramount has disclosed in the past that CBS content makes up roughly half of the viewership on Paramount+; and this is despite the fact that P+ isn't even the sole beneficiary of CBS content; roughly $600 million per quarter of Paramount's licensing revenue comes from CBS shows as well.
One possibility that I perhaps did not consider sufficiently was the chance that the unique characteristics of CBS would make it harder for that channel to transition to streaming than its other broadcast peers. CBS is the most popular of all broadcast networks, but that popularity owes disproportionately to more elderly viewers; in the demo, it is actually Comcast Corporation's (CMCSA) NBC which takes the top crown.
With elderly viewers both less appealing to advertisers and less likely to make the transition to streaming, it is perhaps not so surprising that CBS is continuing to perform well on linear but having trouble translating that to streaming.
International Shortfall The damage isn't through yet, either. Paramount disclosed that it took another $1.2 billion impairment charge on content in the first quarter. This one has to do with the international side; a few years ago Paramount commissioned 150 new, original international shows and movies to try to boost international growth. Now, Paramount reveals that even international consumers spend no less than 90% of their time streaming Hollywood content; the local originals aren't doing very much for growth or retention.
About the only good thing that can be said about this complete and utter debacle is that it is a one-off; unlike Paramount's US content spending, which is ongoing and therefore must be made more efficient if Paramount is to survive and thrive, Paramount is gradually exiting International production. In fact, to help cover the losses on its international originals it is selling its share in Viacom18, the network that formerly served as Paramount's onshore operation in India, to its partner Reliance for a little over $500 million.
Where Are The Children? Yet another factor is children's programming. While many have essentially written off Paramount's entire cable channel group, and I agree the prognosis for MTV and Comedy Central is rather grim, I have argued that Nickelodeon remains a real asset, as one of the top two children's channels in linear TV. I believed that would be a powerful subscriber acquisition tool, alongside sports, as the streaming transition continued.
It hasn't worked out. Surveys consistently show the Big 3 for parents with children are Netflix, Disney, and the third is Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) of all things. Neither Paramount+ nor Warner Discovery's Max make the cut, despite ownership of top children's linear platforms/libraries Nickelodeon and Looney Tunes, respectively.
The prognosis here isn't entirely grim. Paramount has reported that half of their streaming subscribers touch kids' content regularly, so clearly Nickelodeon does mean something to the subscribers. It's possible it helps with retention, even if it doesn't drive acquisition. Paramount owns the number one brand for pre-school kids, Paw Patrol.
Paramount has shut down the separate Noggin streaming service and will presumably be amplifying the kids content on P+ as a result, so perhaps this trend will yet turn around. With so many other things going wrong, though, the inability to make kids content more central to the strategy is a painful blow.
The Mismanagement Of Streaming I suspect, however, that Paramount's single biggest defect over the past few years has been the competency of its management. In a streaming world, success hinges overwhelmingly on the efficiency with which a content budget is deployed. That efficiency, in turn, requires avoiding the trap of "overload," something cable doesn't have to worry about but which can kill a streaming service.
What Is Overload? In brief, overload is when a streaming service spends money on content that appeals primarily to those subscribers who were already subscribed and intending to remain subscribed, even without that content. Because revenue does not increase with more viewership, such spending is essentially wasted money. I have been arguing for several years that some economic models of streaming profitability fail to take account of this significant element.
Paramount seems to have had a lot of overload in the last few years. Specifically, its single most broadly appealing piece of content is the NFL, which Paramount is an anchor broadcaster for. Because NFL fans are accustomed to spending upwards of $100 a month on cable just to watch the NFL - over 10% of cable subscribers say that the NFL is the only reason they're still subscribing - Paramount's $6-$12 a month fee for streaming really doesn't need anything more than NFL games to attract these 40-50 million fans.
The Earnings Jaw-Dropper And yet, it seems that's where a lot of the extra streaming money has been going. On the Q2 earnings call last year, CEO Bob Bakish, watching the stock price steadily decline, seemed to be eager to reassure he had a handle on the situation and began describing some of the changes he'd be making. It started out well enough, really; he told investors that NFL viewers churn drops dramatically if they also engage with entertainment titles, which is what you'd expect.
But then, he stunned me and I expect just about everyone listening when he said, "we probably need to do less for [the NFL viewer] in the fall, and more outside the fall because we can rely on the NFL." Compounding the almost Looking Glass-feeling, he then went on to reassure everyone he would be "fine-tuning" the content strategy to address that point in the years to come.
It was, frankly, stunning. Both me and I suspect just about every analyst who was modeling Paramount had just assumed it went without saying that of course, any entertainment content targeted at retaining NFL viewers should drop in the other half of the year when the NFL wasn't playing on TV. My own calculations of the profit margin on CBS's NFL deal had always incorporated that.
And while that was bad enough, it also raised the concern that a management team that didn't understand that going in might have put a lot of other overload in other categories as well. Suddenly, it wasn't so hard to see how the best-scripted shop with the most profitable sports contracts was having trouble making money. Double-loading for 50 million households would be a major drag on the financial performance for streaming.
Light At The End Of The Tunnel Despite all of this, I still think there are bright spots in the Paramount picture, even without a merger. Its operations, as well as its merger discussions, don't seem to lack potential.

1: My Usual Paramount Bull Argument: Sports Profits

One thing that continues to go right is sports content. A few years ago, I wrote that Paramount was a strong contender to become a sustainable streaming business because it had the only profitable sports slate in the business. The stock hasn't gone where I wanted it to go, but that is the one part of my thesis that has been definitively borne out. In fact, many now say that it is CBS's sports deals, at least as much as Paramount's film/TV studio, that the prospective buyers of Paramount are after.
I've covered these in other articles already. The March Madness deal runs until 2032 and the NFL deal runs until 2033, although the NFL has an opt out after 2029 that it will probably exercise given the utterly ludicrous bids the NBA is receiving, so the last four years of that deal might have to be chopped off the profit projections. Even so, Paramount can probably generate $1.25 billion a year in profit just off of those two deals for the next six years.
Those are probably the biggest, but it doesn't stop there. Almost every sports deal Paramount has is profitable. For all the flak management has deservedly taken, Paramount continues to show discipline and focus on sports. You won't find Paramount throwing $2.5 billion a year at the NBA's 'B' package, which is more money than the NFL gets for its 'B' package despite having 10x the viewership.
For all its many, many missteps, a Paramount that can just manage to stay afloat long enough for some of these ludicrous sports bets at other companies to blow up may yet find itself with cards to play later in the decade.

2: Recouping Write-downs Via Preferred Conversion

Another small boon has been the official conversion of the preferred shares. The Paramount mandatory convertible formerly trading under the PARAP ticker was capped at 0.85 shares per common share. Given the initial price of the convertible at $100 per share, that effectively means that a preferred share that was carrying a $100 liquidation value has just been converted into 1.1765 shares of a common stock currently trading around $12. A total value per preferred share of around $14.
And they sold for $1 billion, so that's basically $860 million back into the common equity that management was able to get at the peak of the boom. That actually repairs almost all of the red ink from Paramount's doomed international originals push on its own.

3: An End To Streaming Waste

Finally, a lot of the waste in streaming may soon be ending. Bob Bakish was finally fired a few weeks ago, and while I never want someone to lose their job, he frankly had looked overmatched for a while. Bakish was a lifetime cable executive who seemed to be having trouble making the transition to a streaming-world mindset. Frankly, if I knew about it in 2021, the CEO has no business fine-tuning it into the strategy in 2023.
With international originals no longer draining the coffers and overloaded entertainment programming shifted to months of the calendar where it can be more productive, streaming may yet turn the corner.
Investment Summary I recognize fully that each fall in Paramount stock makes my bullish optimism seem ever more out of step. I do believe, however, that Paramount's failures are more failures of execution than lack of scale or structural disadvantage. Paramount CEO Bob Bakish simply wasn't up to the job. Ironically that wasn't what got him fired; Bakish was almost certainly fired for opposing Redstone's plan to enrich herself at the expense of other shareholders, probably the most competent thing he did in the last few years of his whole tenure.
Paramount has everything it needs to be successful; profitable sports contracts, which is just unbelievable in this day and age, a thriving scripted TV operation, and a viable, if recently somewhat mismanaged, streaming service. An end to overload waste, the continued exploitation of its favorable sports slate, throttling back unhelpful international originals and boosting kids content engagement may yet produce a different streaming picture going forward. Should older viewers start to get more comfortable with streaming going forward and following their favorite programs to Paramount+, that would just be icing on the cake.
It's been a depressing ride the last few years, but I'm sticking with Paramount.