Happy Friday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 70 points to 6628 ▲1.1%

▌In today's MB:

• BSP holds rates steady
• DDMPR declares falling Q1 div
• Jollibee Q1 profit: P2.6-B (up 27%)
• PSE puts ANI, INFRA, C, and PNX on suspension notice

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▌Main stories covered:

• [NEWS] BSP keeps interest rates steady... The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) [link] said yesterday that its Monetary Board decided to keep rates steady. In doing so, the BSP said that inflationary risks “continue to lean toward the upside”, but that its latest forecasts showed that “inflation would settle close tot he upper-end of the target range.” As for inflation expectations, the BSP said that those “remain well-anchored”. The Monetary Board said that it “deems it appropriate to ensure tight monetary policy settings until inflation settles firmly within the target range”, and indicated that such a stance would also “help keep inflation expectations anchored”.
  
  • MB: At least the BSP stopped talking about wage increases as a potential inflationary risk. That said, does anyone else detect an air of contradiction in what the BSP is saying? Perhaps contradiction is too strong of a term, but I get the growing sense that the BSP’s reasons for keeping rates high are somewhat diverging from its own analysis. The BSP says that it’s primary objective is price stability, so we can infer that it’s keeping rates high as a means of trying to suppress price increases, and yet the BSP has again and again told us that the driver for price increases is a problem on the supply side of the equation, not the demand side. Interest rate adjustments don’t impact supply-side problems, because interest rate increases are meant to suppress demand. We don’t have a demand problem. Adding to this is the BSP’s concern about maintaining a tight policy to keep inflation expectations anchored, despite noting just a paragraph earlier that inflation expectations were already “well-anchored”. This implies that there is psychological space for the BSP to lower rates within the framework of current expectations. This is picky stuff, I know, there are simply too many people and companies struggling under high rates to ignore the rapidly decreasing marginal utility of yet another cycle of the BSP’s conservative observation of the situation. Just my personal opinion.
• [DIVS] DDMPR declares falling Q1 div at 116% payout ratio... DDMP [DDMPR 1.17 ▲0.9%; 37% avgVol] [link] declared a Q1/24 dividend of ₱0.023476, payable on July 15 to shareholders of record as of June 19. The dividend has an annualized yield of 8.03% based on the previous closing price. The total amount of the dividend is ₱419 million, which is 116% of the ₱362 million in distributable income that DDMPR reported for the quarter. Relative to DDMPR’s IPO price, the dividend increased DDMPR’s total stock and dividend return to -32.29%, up from its pre-dividend total return of -32.33%. DDMP REIT Fund Managers reported that DDMPR’s occupancy as of March 31 was just 76%, with occupancy at its main building (DoubleDragon Plaza) listed at just 70.8%.
  
  • MB: The dividend amount is up 1.4% from DDMPR’s disastrous Q4/23 dividend, but it’s down 7.5% y/y and down 15.8% from Q1/22. DDMPR is the second-oldest REIT on the PSE. It issued its first dividend to shareholders in Q4/20. Its sponsor,DoubleDragon* [DD 10.48 ▲10.0%; 581% avgVol], is bursting at the seams with potential assets that could be downloaded to DDMPR to diversify the REIT’s portfolio and breathe some much-needed life into this stagnating afterthought. DDMPR’s assets are fine, but their strategy in how to monetize those assets is outdated. Gone are the days when high commercial rents from POGOs could excuse the growing issue of collections from those POGOs. Now we have DDMPR suffering from high (and going higher) rates of delinquency. Gone are the days when investors were lapping up the chance to get in on the commercial office space game. Now we have the threat of a POGO ban and the existential threat of AI putting all of the “easy” BPO leasing opportunities at risk. Gone are the days when DDMPR’s inactivity could be explained away by its newness. Now we’re left picking through the rubble of yet another disappointing Quarterly Report, yet another y/y dividend reduction, and bagholders have heard no plan from management on what they’ll do to right the ship.*
• [EARNINGS] Jollibee Q1 profit: ₱2.6-B (up 27%)... Jollibee [JFC 224.00 ▲0.9%; 300% avgVol] [link] posted a Q1 net income attributable of ₱2.6 billion, up 27% from its Q1/23 net income attributable of ₱2.1 billion. JFC said it was able to grow profit margins and exceed its Q1 performance outlook thanks to “healthy top line growth combined with further operational efficiencies and effective management of expenses”. JFC’s system-wide sales were up 10.4% to ₱86.8 billion due to new store additions and same-store sales growth was up 5.5%, which JFC said was due to increased volume. Across all of JFC’s segmented business units, “Europe, Middle East, Asia” had the largest same-store sales growth (+14.7%) and system-wide sales growth (+25.5%). The “People’s Republic of China” and “Highlands Coffee” were negative in terms of same-store sales growth (-3.7% and -9.0%, respectively), and only the People’s Republic of China business unit was negative in terms of system-wide sales growth (-3.7%). JFC said that its difficulties in China are partly due to a high bar effect from last year’s success, and a slowdown in the quick service restaurant industry in that country more generally. JFC said that while Highlands Coffee saw its same-store sales growth fall 9.0%, it did “better than industry” and managed to gain 4% market share during that period.
  
  • MB: The bee perseveres. It has made massive bets in “coffee” and “China” that could pay off handsomely in the future, and all of this activity has likely bought the management team some more time with its shareholder base to deliver on the delicious fruits of these bets. JFC’s stock price is up almost 150% from its COVID low, but it’s somewhat rangebound between about ₱200/share and ₱270/share. The stock hit ₱273/share in late February, only to rapidly retreat back to the ₱215/share level over the next six weeks in a pattern that the share price has repeated two or three times already this year. Generally speaking, the highs are higher and the lows are higher, but maybe with all the segments firing this busy season the stock will finally be able to push out of that range.
• [NEWS] Several notable firms placed on suspension notice for failure to report... The PSE [link] notified four high-profile companies that their shares would be suspended at 9 AM today if 2023 Annual Reports were not posted. The companies that were put on notice are Tony Tiu’s AgriNurture [ANI 0.57 ▼1.7%; 102% avgVol], Philippine Infradev [INFRA 0.53 ▲1.9%; 262% avgVol] and two from pseudo-tycoon Dennis Uy, Chelsea Logistics [C 1.30 ▲4.0%; 526% avgVol] and Phoenix Petroleum [PNX 4.17 ▼0.2%; 78% avgVol]. Should any of these companies fail to submit their Annual Reports before 9 AM, they will remain suspended for up to three months until such report is submitted. If nothing has changed after three months, the PSE must begin involuntary delisting proceedings.
  
  • MB: These companies are not a random sample, and they’re not representative of the PSE as a whole. Will ANI, INFRA, C, and PNX push their luck right up to the deadline, or will any of these companies slip into a suspended state for failure to complete one of the most basic components of public corporate life? As usual, retail bagholders will just have to wait and see what the owners decide to do.

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1. Cosculluela “El Principe Ghost Edition” (2010) – Some may get mad at seeing this “El Principe” #1 when “Odisea” is at #8 especially because Coscu’s 200 thousand units sold is 10x less the amount of Ozuna’s “Odisea”. But unless you were there, you cannot fathom the fact that “El Principe” was the equivalent to “El Abayarde” during the “Back To The Underground Era” (2009-2014). Major labels dissed Rap & Reggaeton and most of it went back to the underground. And even if it did receive a release from a major like “El Principe”, unless you were Yankee or Don or signed a 360, you were not getting any promotional dollars invested in you. This album remained “underground” outside of Puerto Rico, but it became the hottest thing in the culture thus it did phenomenal numbers with no mainstream exposure. But the most important facet is the music. And this album is full of classics from beginning to end with much variety yet Cosculluela does not abandon his underground lyricism at any moment for commercial success. You have ballads with Zion & De La Ghetto, but hardcore songs like “Plaka Plaka” and “Un Pesito”. There is no doubt that when this album came out Cosculluela was the #1 Latin MC on planet earth and his career is now legendary thanks to “El Principe” in which every single song was good and a hit!

1. Jowell & Randy “El Momento” (2010) – Wisin & Yandel’s “WY Records” joined forces with the legendary “White Lion Records” to present this masterpiece. Half the album is produced by Wisin & Yandel’s superstar team of Nesty, Victor & Gomez while the other half is done by Live Music (DJ Giann, Dexter, Mr. Greenz & DJ Blass). It is Jowell & Randy’s best album to date and their most successful one to date. People remember hits like “Un Booty Nuevo” feat. Yaviah, “Loco”, & “Solo Por Ti” but songs like “Amanece” and “Chica de Novela” are all time classics within the Reggaeton community. If you missed this one, do yourself a favor and save your life by hearing it.

• I posted my first reel on Insta/Facebook! - It was quite the rollercoaster of emotions and anxiety. Although it was a success, it was far from smooth.
  • First, I realized that I cannot use my YouTube video because reels come in a different size and it looked very choppy. So I scrambled and changed the formatting in Canva. It. Was. Not. Fun.
  • When I finally got it ready and figured out how to post the reel, I posted it to FB and Insta only to realize I forgot to add the hashtags. I was able to update the caption in one platform, but for the other I had to delete the video and repost.
  • Overall there was good reception to my brand launch and I saw family and friends repost the video.
• I worked on my reel for tomorrow, which is a short reel (about 15 secs). I went back and forth about creating a longer and comprehensive video, but sided to maintain my plan to alternate between long, short, long, short…

• FB Link: Still no update on the broken Facebook link on the website. I followed up on Fiverr.
• Email Campaign: the good news is that MailChimp offers free emails under the free version. The bad news is that there is no automation. I looked into other providers but they seem to have a pay wall as well. I figured that I’ll use MailChimp for now until my email list gets bigger. I'll send out a weekly email.
  • I started working on a template. I will include a feature of the week, a survey, and perhaps one of our social media posts. What else should I include?

• On a podcast about growing one’s business, the presenter suggested that I reach out to “micro-bloggers” for two purposes: 1) product review that could be shared in their channel or 2) a formal business partnership.
  • It got me thinking about the review route. If I reach out to 100 micro-bloggers/influencers to introduce them to MYNDER and if on average these folks spread awareness to just 10 people, then I’ll reach 10% of my goal. I will be thinking more about this plan.
• I saw a post on Reddit about Product Hunt. The post questioned the usefulness of Product Hunt, which has me rethinking this platform. I had created a campaign there but didn’t formally “Submit”. I need to do research on the ROI on this.
  • Does anyone have experience with PH?

• Share promo video on insta
• Play around with MailChimp for email campaign
• Review keyword list received from Fiverr gig.
  Subscribers Email: 30 YouTube: 2 (but 26 views 😊) Instagram: 14
  

• Total budget (in local currency) and country of purchase. Please do not use USD unless purchasing in the US: $1000 USD (United States)
• Are you open to refurbs/used? Very unlikely
• How would you prioritize form factor (ultrabook, 2-in-1, etc.), build quality, performance, and battery life? I would like to find a 2-in-1 with good battery life and great performance. I am looking for something that would also work well for taking handwritten notes, but if there's a crazy good deal on something without a touchscreen/stylus I will consider it.
• How important is weight and thinness to you? This is somewhat important (shouldn't be a 50lb dumbell) but not really a deciding factor. Anything will be lighter than my current laptop...
• Do you have a preferred screen size? If indifferent, put N/A. I would probably prefer a slightly larger screen, but it's not horribly important.
• Are you doing any CAD/video editing/photo editing/gaming? List which programs/games you desire to run. I don't play video games excessively, but I would like to be able to run at least mid-level games. JetBrains is probably my most used software. I would likely use CAD software, though what I know right now is OnShape (browser-based). I don't plan on doing video editing often, maybe like once or twice a year.
• If you're gaming, do you have certain games you want to play? At what settings and FPS do you want? I don't have one in particular, but 60fps+ on mid-level games (slightly higher performance than minecraft).
• Any specific requirements such as good keyboard, reliable build quality, touch-screen, finger-print reader, optical drive or good input devices (keyboard/touchpad)? I will be running Linux - preferably Linux Mint but it doesn't really matter as long as it's Debian based. The components of the laptop should all work with Linux (minor things like specialty keys and such I don't care too much). I would also like to be able to upgrade the components, especially since this laptop needs to last me 4 years.
• Leave any finishing thoughts here that you may feel are necessary and beneficial to the discussion. This is a new laptop I am getting for college. My current laptop can barely handle Firefox with 10 tabs, and it takes (not kidding here) 35 minutes to get everything loaded for basic web browsing on Linux Mint.

• ASUS ROG Flow X13
• HP Envy x360 2-in-1 Laptop 16t-ac000