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Right, so I'm going to post this on my profile because I think it will get hated and downvoted to oblivion in the sub, and I don't feel like getting into arguments with people because it's literally just media analysis, but for anyone of my followers interested: there's a world of difference in the amount of influence different character from the family have in the actual overarching plot. Which is largely about sustaining the Family, and the House, as they have always been, as per tradition dictates (and as per JF wishes). I mean, the show IS called Downton Abbey.
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Robert's role is obvious, throughout the show. He's the head of the family. If he dies, everything changes. There would be a transfer of power (which has slowly happened by the second movie, but would be a world-changer if it had actually happened at any point during the show) that would shift the balance of how the house operates. Robert's views also have a massive influence over what other characters are doing, so in the end he is a valuable player when it comes to preserving the house, and of course, the death duties and taxes will eventually become an issue again when he dies.
Cora also has an important part to play, beyond her inheritance, although it's a sad one: if Cora died at any point, especially in the early seasons, it would have been expected of Robert to re-marry. If Robert remarried, he'd have probably married a much younger woman, and he'd have probably had more children. In which case, he could have had a son and changed the trajectory of the show entirely. So Cora's continued existence makes a world of difference to Downton as well.
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Mary's is obvious as well. Mary was always destined to be the one who would carry the torch, from the very first episode. She is her father's daughter, dutifully following in his footsteps when it comes to the sense of obligation to the community and to the house (Downton is her third parent and third child as well), and she is stepping in Violet's shoes in her devotion to the family as well (and mirrors Violet's temperament and cool composure as well). Finally, she's embracing the modern world fully. Which means she has the best of both worlds, the burden of duty, and the capacity to look forward and carry on. And Mary saved the house already several times. In season 3 by persuading Matthew to invest money and literally buy it for Robert, and of course in the form of George, who is securing the continuation of the line. And by assisting in the running of the estate from season 4 onwards (and taking it on entirely by the second movie). Downton cannot exist without Mary.
Same goes for Matthew. Literally the heir. Like Mary, vital just because of George. But like Mary (and there's lots of parallels between them, this is one of the happy ones) he is the one who gets to drag Downton into the modern world, fight with Robert to get the estate sorted, invest A Whole Lot of money into it, and be smart enough (and devoted enough) to hand the reins both for the modernisation, and for the running of at least half of the estate, to Mary, who is also smart enough (and devoted enough) to continue with his plans and ideas that allowed the place to survive and make it to the 30s (at least). Downton would have collapsed without him. Quite literally.
​
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I find Sybil's role in Downton's continued existence interesting, and tragic at the same time. Sybil (along with Isobel) were a major factor in Downton becoming a convalescence home during the war. You might wonder well, how is that important. On the one hand, they got government funding to run it and more money has never been an issue. On the other hand, it helped with Matthew's recovery.
Majorly, Sybil's contribution was her forward thinking, which changed a lot of Robert's and Mary's views (and we see how that helped) and of course, the fact that she brought Tom into the family. Who would of course go on to help Mary and Matthew implement the modernisation of the estate. I'm not saying they wouldn't have been able to do it without him, but the show would have to undergo a ton of changes if Sybil and Tom's stories hadn't evolved the way they did.
​
https://preview.redd.it/fl8ejlr6re0d1.jpg?width=563&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5eb0294ae72a9610dd1064a0eb1e3b38b4b57e06
This all leaves us with Edith. Edith's biggest influence on the plot was the letter she wrote to the Turkish Embassy in season 1. It changed the trajectory of Mary's life, and by extension, the world of Downton. Because Mary didn't accept Matthew's proposal since she couldn't find the courage to tell him about the potential scandal, Matthew got engaged to Lavinia, Lavinia died, Matthew inherited the money from Swire, Mary persuaded him to invest in the house, Downton was saved. If Edith hadn't existed in season 1, the show would be massively different.
But the fact is that beyond that, her life does not influence the overarching plot, and the house. She is of course a favourite of many fans and the show would NOT be the same without her, but the house itself, Downton, doesn't need her, and hasn't needed her since that letter. Edith could have gone to America in season 2, and other than her own storylines, nothing else would have had to change, the show could have continued on, as is, with almost 0 changes. Which is why JF's decision to move her to Brancaster made a whole lot of sense. Edith had no role in Downton since literally the start of WWI.
Anyway. I thought the dynamics of the family were interesting. And it sort of all sets the tone for most of what goes on on screen, because based on the amount of influence each character has, the story shifts around them. And there's some obvious ones (like Robert and Mary) and some less obvious ones (like Tom), and it explains at least a few things, for example, why Edith was so obsessed with what Mary did and what went on in Mary's life early on the show - because she knew that that's where change happened. And once she outgrew that stage of trying to take the spotlight away from her sister she came to the obvious conclusion that she had to make a life for herself outside of Downton, and that's what saved her (although, I think she'd have been far better off living as a modern woman in London, at least for a while before she met Bertie, but that's just me).

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Yesterday was close for Trailer Trash but with a margin of ONE vote, “short love with a long divorce, and a couple of kids, of course, they don’t mean anything” won for favorite lyric. Today’s song is Out Of Gas, so bring it on!
❗️❗️❗️REMEMBER❗️❗️❗️ Check the comments for your lyric BEFORE commenting yourself and upvote if someone already posted it. I will NOT be compiling votes for the same lyric on different comments.
Alright y’all - we are going verse by verse, song by song, album by album picking our favorite lyrics off of every song from every album in order.
Previously I did not specify when I asked for favorite “lyrics.” Some folks have submitted verses, and some folks have submitted whole stanzas. The purpose of this is to get single verses (maaaaaaybe two lines), but not a whole stanza/paragraph worth of lyrics.
Quick reminder that a VERSE is “a single line in a poem” (in our case songs) and a STANZA is “a distinct set of lines in a poem” (in our case songs).
Example:
Stanza: “Well we scheme, and we scheme, but we always blow it We've yet to crash, but we still might as well enjoy it Standing at a light switch to each east and west horizon Every dawn you're surprising And the evening was consoling saying ‘See it wasn't quite as, bad as’”
Verse: “we’ve yet to crash but we still might as well enjoy it.”
So with that cleared up, drop your favorite line below and others will upvote their favorites!
Rules:

1. Don’t be a dick! Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and your opinion does not invalidate theirs.
   
2. Read the comments to look for your lyric before you post and upvote accordingly. I will NOT be compiling different comments with the same lyrics and adding upvotes together.
   
3. This is supposed to be FUN! Engage with your community, share your stories or experiences, and spend some time appreciating the lyricism.
   
4. At the end, we will have a vote-off of the favorite lyrics from every album, then those lyrics will face off against all the other albums, and we will find out what the ultimate fan favorite Modest Mouse lyric is.
   

What is the stochastic oscillator?

A stochastic oscillator chart allows you to identify momentum in the price of a financial asset. At the core of this indicator is the stochastic oscillator formula. What it does is compare the closing price of a security with the recent high and low prices. It then converts it to a figure between 0 and 100, which is the actual value of the stochastic oscillator.
Let's say you talk to two traders independently and ask them what the stochastic oscillator shows. You will most likely get two very different answers. On the one hand, the stochastic oscillator is an indicator of both up and down momentum. On the other hand, some traders may see it as an indicator of overbought and oversold prices. Both explanations are correct in theory. The fundamental difference lies in how you use the indicator within your investment strategy.
https://preview.redd.it/75cd3582pe0d1.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f594c2024beede3d8096e690387ae660095b242
There are other factors to take into account. One of them is the period during which the low price and the high price are taken. You will need to research the ideal indicator settings for your particular trading method. Are you happy to opt for a flatter long-term trend? Alternatively, would you prefer a more sensitive short-term indicator that could alert you to short-term trading opportunities?
A brief history
There is some debate about the origins of the stochastic oscillator. Especially the %D indicators which we will cover later in this article. Many believe that C. Ralph Dystant was the original creator of the indicator. However, George C. Lane is perhaps more commonly credited with playing his role in popularizing it. The latter also introduced several tweaks and adjustments.
We can trace the stochastic oscillator itself back to the 1950s, when C. Ralph Dystant taught courses on the stock market. In these courses, his original focus was on commodities. The classes were one of the first to focus on charts, moving averages, and other indicators as a means of attempting to predict future price movements. By the way, George C. Lane supposedly started working for C Ralph Dystant in 1954. That was the same year that technical “guru” Roy Larson retired. It was a coincidence?
It would be fair to say that both C. Ralph Dystant, and George C. Lane, were integral to the creation of the stochastic oscillator indicator and the influence it still has on investors today. In many ways, the key to its success is its relative simplicity. The masterstroke introduced an easy-to-understand range between zero and 100. In the words of Kelly Johnson, former principal engineer at Lockheed Skunk Works, “keep it simple, stupid.” Many traders today refer to this quote as the KISS principle, because in English it would be “keep it simple, stupid.”
How does the stochastic oscillator work?
Now let's examine how the stochastic oscillator works. We'll also see how quickly you can adjust the sensitivity of the indicator. The basic concept behind the stochastic oscillator is momentum. It gives you the ability to monitor the price momentum of an asset. Doing so allows you to see if, compared to recent highs and lows, you are potentially oversold or overbought. However, therein lies a potential conundrum.

A simple example

What if we look at the S&P 500? The E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract is among the highest volume assets in the futures market. What will its momentum show us if we look at it? Imagine the example of shooting a rocket into the sky. It will not stop suddenly and return to earth immediately after running out of fuel. The fading momentum will continue to push you higher at a drastically decreasing speed. However, when the positive momentum finally ends, the rocket will spin and head toward the earth. As a result, you gain new momentum along the way. This is the idea behind the stochastic oscillator. Using the recent highs and lows, for comparison, you should be able to identify a change in momentum. That result should also be reflected in the graphs.
There is a general consensus that when stochastic oscillator levels fall below 20, it indicates that the asset is oversold. Meanwhile, if it moves above 80, that indicates that the asset is overbought. Let's take 50 as our average value. In theory, positive momentum is above the line, while negative momentum is below it. Although this is often the case, you should be on the lookout for potential false signals. Now let's go ahead and take a look at the ways to read and understand the Stochastic Oscillator indicator.

Stochastic Oscillator Formula and Calculation

In this section, we will look at the stochastic oscillator formula. We'll also point out which elements of the formula you can adjust to change the sensitivity. The formula is the following:
C = the most recent closing price
L14 = the lowest price traded during the last 14 trading sessions
H14 = the highest price traded during the last 14 trading sessions
%K = the current value of the stochastic indicator as a percentage
To give a practical example of how the indicator works, we will look at the S&P 500 index. This is the figure on which the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts are based.
Current level = 3490
Low point in the last 14 trading sessions = 3300
High point in the last 14 trading sessions = 3500
The calculation is as follows:
3490-3300/3500-3300 = 190/200
(190/200) x 100 = 95%

Example

So, according to the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, the S&P 500 Index has strong momentum and is in possible “overbought” territory. Many people would classify this as the standard stochastic oscillator indicator calculation based on 14 trading sessions. However, what does the situation look like based on eight trading sessions?
Current level = 3490
Low point in the last 8 trading sessions = 3400
High point in the last 8 trading sessions = 3500
3490-3400/3500-3400 = 90/100
(90/100) x 100 = 90%
Finally, what indication does the calculation with a 30-period moving average give us?
Current level = 3490
Low point in the last 30 trading sessions = 3200
High point in the last 8 trading sessions = 3500
3490-3200/3500-3200 = 290/300
(290/300) x 100 = 97%
The shorter the period in question, the more sensitive the formula will be to daily movements. The reason is that the difference between the maximum and minimum point should be relatively small, in theory.
In the three examples above, the S&P 500 index has strong momentum for 14 and 30 days. However, it is noticeably lower if you only look at it over 8 days. And, on the other hand, they all indicate a potentially overbought scenario.

How to read stochastic oscillator charts?

Next, let's take a look at two stochastic oscillator indicator charts. We will highlight some of the turning points that could have been beneficial for traders. The first chart is the traditional (fast) stochastic oscillator indicator with a smoother %D trend line based on the %K factor.
https://preview.redd.it/vzf6c7wfme0d1.png?width=1377&format=png&auto=webp&s=512182433e3783fa53bcf9fad33fbc81b5a40bef
The second chart is what we call a “slow stochastic oscillator indicator”. It averages the index level over a longer period. Then we have the %D factor, which is based on the %K and gives an even smoother line.
The longer the period over which prices are examined, including high, low and current prices, the smoother the chart will be. However, there will be a significant delay. On the plus side, in many ways, this can help offset the short-term peaks and troughs that can sometimes tempt people to buy and sell when they shouldn't.
https://preview.redd.it/b7k655aime0d1.png?width=1420&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee2a182215d415eb4e5f7b8e528b81247e601a2a

How to use the stochastic oscillator?

The key to using the stochastic oscillator is finding the time frame that best suits your investment strategy. Those looking for short-term trading will focus on relatively short periods, which can lead to somewhat volatile changes in the indicator. Those looking for confirmation of longer-term trends will extend the period in question. These graphs will be smoother and, due to the long delay, are not as susceptible to short-term changes.

What are the best and most accurate settings?

There are three variables to consider when looking at the stochastic oscillator setup, which are:
%K = based on the number of time periods used in the calculation
Slowdown = simple moving average (SMA) factor applied to %K
%D = %K moving average factor
As we mentioned earlier, the stochastic oscillator has three different types. Among them are:

The Fast Stochastic Oscillator (Traditional Indicator)

Fast %K = basic %K calculation for 14 periods
Fast %D = Fast Stochastic Oscillator Three-Period SMA %K

The slow stochastic oscillator

Slow %K = Fast %K expressed as three-period SMA
Slow %D = Slow %K three-period SMA

The Complete Stochastic Oscillator

%K full = %K fast smoothed over a period X SMA
Full %D = Full %K Period X SMA
The beauty of this system is the fact that all previous variations of the original indicator produce figures from 0 to 100. As a result, it is easy to compare and contrast the variation in the trend lines. The longer the periods in which you calculate the simple moving average, the smoother the line will be.
As we mentioned above, the simple fast stochastic oscillator will throw up many possible overbought and oversold positions. Some of them will inevitably be false signals. As you can see from the charts above, the Fast Stochastic Oscillator can be quite volatile, frequently trading above or below the 80 and 20 levels for a short period of time. On the same chart, you can see areas where the %D (SMA figure) is not as volatile and does not always fall below or move above the 80 or 20 levels like the Fast Stochastic Oscillator does.

Trading strategies with the stochastic oscillator

There are many ways you can use the stochastic oscillator indicator to open positions, close positions or even reduce your position if the chart is at a critical point.

Identifying overbought/oversold levels

As you will see in the chart below, there are a variety of very useful indicators that could have generated some significant gains. The first overbought indicator shows the Fast Stochastic Oscillator figure reaching the 80% level and then turning sharply downwards through the three-period SMA. These crossover points are considered by many to be strong indicators that momentum is shifting and the short-term trend may be about to reverse.
The second overbought position begins to emerge when the Fast Stochastic Oscillator and the SMA move above 80%. A move above 80% or below 20% should not necessarily be seen as a signal to sell or buy, but rather as an early warning that momentum may be about to change.
https://preview.redd.it/3taqkc2kne0d1.png?width=1912&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7a55840fdae584d81ebe937210f3b3fe70ecb32
Many people prefer to wait for a sustained drop below 80% or move above 20% before reacting, thus eliminating a degree of volatility that can sometimes create false signals. This is where SMA lines can be very useful, smoother and less volatile, although you won't necessarily sell at the top due to the lag.
You can also see the two false overbought signals where the Fast Stochastic Oscillator figure and the SMA fell below 80. However, they reversed quite quickly when the momentum picked up again and the chart moved back into higher territory.
You will find that where there is a strong uptrend, which has not been broken, at some point there will be a pullback which can be an opportunity to buy into the weakness. This is the reason why the fast stochastic oscillator is more appropriate for day traders, or also for short-term traders.
Bullish/bearish divergence
There will be times when there is a bullish/bearish divergence between the actual chart and the stochastic oscillator indicator. As you can see with the chart below, the lowest point on the chart would indicate the possibility of a further decline. However, when you look at the stochastic oscillator indicator, the trend is moving in a different direction and is slightly bullish.
This may be an indication that the stock has bottomed and momentum may be about to change. One of the main signals to watch out for with this particular chart is the fast stochastic oscillator moving through the SMA line.
https://preview.redd.it/rku5zd2joe0d1.png?width=1087&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6583cea6a63f18ed49327c4f626a39608b9e016
You are equally likely to see a reversal where the main chart indicates an intact uptrend, while the stochastic oscillator shows a slowdown in momentum and a turn towards a downtrend. These are some of the rarest trading signals, but they are very interesting, especially when you incorporate simple trend lines into price charts.

Price trend

The relationship between the Fast Stochastic Oscillator and the SMA is very important. As you can see in the chart below, the first section is dominated by the strong downtrend with the Fast Stochastic Oscillator and the SMA descending in parallel.
Then there is a bounce on the chart followed by a move into choppy waters with an obvious downtrend. As you will see, both indicators remain below the 20% level, indicating that the momentum is relatively weak. That is until the Fast Stochastic Oscillator breaks the SMA line towards the end of the choppy price action area.
https://preview.redd.it/v5d3gkatoe0d1.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=caa386e1e0e6979fc9210fe18c06c0e3acb9738b
This change in momentum is demonstrated by the uptrend, although it is not difficult to see where the momentum begins to fade above 80%. When the short-term trend line breaks through the SMA and falls below the 80% level, this indicates another change in the trend – a possible sell signal.

Advantages of using the stochastic oscillator

Momentum is very important when it comes to trading and there is no doubt that the stochastic oscillator indicator is a very useful tool. There are a number of advantages to consider which include: –

Sensitive to impulse change

The shorter the period during which the high, low and current price are compared, the more volatile the stochastic oscillator indicator will be. Using SMA trend lines can also create very strong buy/sell signals when the lines cross, especially above 80% and below 20%. This event would indicate that the short-term trend is changing and assuming it continues, a new trend will follow.

Opportunity to identify bullish/bearish divergence

Due to the way the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is calculated, you will sometimes see a divergence between the price chart and the indicator. While the price chart may indicate that a downtrend is still intact, the stochastic oscillator chart may already be identifying a change in momentum before the price changes. As you will see in the chart above, these can be powerful trading signals. How long you can wait to see if a new trend emerges will vary between traders. How brave are you?

The formula is flexible

The shorter the period in question, the more volatile the stochastic oscillator indicator will be. However, there is the possibility of identifying short-term trading opportunities. However, for those who have a longer-term investment strategy, they can extend the number of periods in question. This will flatten the line of the Fast and Volatile Stochastic Oscillator and give a smoother line, which can make it easier to identify any changes in long-term trends.

Risks and limitations of the indicator

As with any technical indicator, the stochastic oscillator is not immune to false signals and is probably best used in conjunction with other trading indicators. Risks and limitations include:

False signals

The shorter the period over which the fast stochastic oscillator is calculated, the more susceptible it is to extreme volatility. This can create numerous false signals, although the impact can be reduced by adding a simple moving average line.

Sideways Trading

The indicator works best when there is a new uptrend, a downtrend or perhaps a short, sharp period of consolidation before the trend re-emerges. During periods of sideways trading, this can create a relatively small gap between the high and low points, therefore creating sharp movements in the indicator on relatively small price movements.

SMA lines delay trend changes

Using longer periods to calculate %K and SMA trend lines can make it easier to identify changes in the trend. However, due to the delay, you may miss a significant element of a changing trend before you decide to buy or sell. You can adjust the variables of the full stochastic oscillator indicator to help you with your specific investment strategy, lengthening or shortening the periods and adjusting the SMA.

Stochastic Oscillator vs Other Indicators

The Stochastic Oscillator indicator is extremely flexible and you can adjust the periods and SMA variables to suit your trading plan. However, especially when looking at limited periods, there will be times when the indicator will create a false signal. Therefore, it is wise to consider other means of technical analysis to clarify whether a potential change in momentum indicated by the stochastic oscillator is also reflected elsewhere.

Stochastic Oscillator vs RSI

While it is true that you can use both the stochastic oscillator and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) to measure price momentum, they work on very different principles. The RSI measures potential overbought/oversold positions by comparing recent gains to recent losses. The idea behind the stochastic oscillator is based on the assumption that the current price should follow the current trend. When the current price moves against the trend, it can indicate a change in momentum and a possible buy/sell signal. So who wins the fight, the Stochastic Oscillator or the RSI?
If the two oscillators indicated the same trend, this would be a powerful signal for investors. For example, if the price of an asset moved towards the upper end of its recent high/low range, it would indicate positive momentum. Assuming that the RSI oscillator is also showing a relatively strong trend, this would reduce the chances of a false signal.

Stochastic Oscillator vs MACD

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a prominent momentum indicator, although it is very different from the stochastic oscillator indicator. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average from the 12-period exponential moving average. Many traders use the MACD technical indicator in conjunction with the stochastic oscillator, often looking for crossover points between the two.
Those who consider technical indicators from a distance might wonder why traders don't simply use three, four, five or more technical indicators together. The answer is simple: the time lag between different technical indicators can confuse the situation.
By the time several different indicators have “aligned”, you may end up missing the vast majority of the trend. There is nothing wrong with using a single technical indicator, but there are risks and false signals can and do occur.
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