Fake card number for a mastercard

Pokémon Card Collections

2012.06.17 12:03 Knifetastic Pokémon Card Collections

A place for sharing your Pokemon collections, Old and New
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2012.12.23 17:55 Dingareth Magic: The Gathering Financial Discussion

A place to discuss the financial side of Magic: The Gathering. Contribute trends, strategies, lessons learned and your experience in this play economy.
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2018.12.31 05:57 chunzi123 EntitledBitch

A sub to post and read about experiences with people who think they can always get their own way and are better than everyone. Entitled People. Note: This subreddit or its name in no way intends to spread hate or abuse or to offend any party, it was created for story sharing and entertainment.
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2024.04.28 21:42 gojigreg Wowzers, just managed to sneak it in under the wire!! Both my local stores were sold out so had to order online from our favorite company!!

Wowzers, just managed to sneak it in under the wire!! Both my local stores were sold out so had to order online from our favorite company!!
Of course I had to add the “series 3” preorder when I saw they were coming soon!! Support the cause!! Buy, DRS, Book em, hold and hodl em, Buy from GameStop instore or online or both!!
submitted by gojigreg to Superstonk [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:41 SubstantialNovel9557 Card idea: Arcade

Card idea: Arcade
Possibly a 3:1 or 3:2 Gains 1 power every time your opponent plays a card that is still in play.
Should be able to produce big morbius type numbers given the right conditions. If the opponent is playing something like kitty... Weak to discard or other decks that don't play many cards. Weak also against destroy who can remove the cards and power from play.
Background
Arcade, also known as Mr. Arcade or simply Arcade, is a Marvel Comics supervillain. His real name is unknown, but he's known for his genius-level intellect and his penchant for designing and constructing deadly traps and gadgets. He first appeared in Marvel Comics in 1978 in "Marvel Team-Up" #65.
His mastery of traps and gadgets could be represented in the game by gaining power whenever your opponent plays a card, indicative of him setting up his elaborate schemes.
Arcade is particularly infamous for his creation of "Murderworld," a deadly amusement park filled with traps, puzzles, and deadly robots designed to capture and kill superheroes. He often lures heroes into Murderworld to test their skills and wit against his lethal creations. The fact murderworld is in the game....
Despite lacking any superhuman abilities, Arcade's intelligence, resources, and cunning make him a formidable adversary. He's clashed with numerous heroes over the years, including Spider-Man, the X-Men, and the Avengers. His motivations typically revolve around proving his intellectual superiority or simply enjoying the thrill of the hunt.
Let me know if you agree or whether you think another ability is better.
submitted by SubstantialNovel9557 to MarvelSnap [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:39 killalipstick Trying to appreciate what I have and stop buying more!

Shopping addiction is something I’ve struggled with for as long as I’ve had access to money. It’s been many different things over the years. Sometimes I conquer one and step right into another. However, I’ve found something that seems to be helping. I’ve been trying to find ways to appreciate my collections instead of just obsessing over adding to them. Some examples:
Makeup- I will select a few products that I haven’t used in a while and put them in a basket with a goal for when I’d like to have used them by (at least one use per product). Once completed I switch them out for others. I’ve also done this with single eyeshadows. If I’m having trouble selecting shades or products I use a random number generator to pick them for me. This has gotten me using a much wider variety and has also helped me pare my collection down by figuring out what I don’t like. I also have a deck of cards that each has a different color. I shuffle the cards and draw one at random and whatever color I choose is to be incorporated into my look for the day. I don’t do this every day but again, it gets me using different things instead of the same stuff every day.
Crystals- I use the same color deck mentioned above to pick a color tumble to carry for the day. Either in my pocket or the cage necklace I have. I also wipe them all down and reorganize my collection almost everytime I dust my shelves so that I can see new things a different way every so often.
Jewelry- getting everything organized and displayed to where I can see it all and not forget about things I own helped tremendously. It also has helped me to be much more selective because it almost feels like part of my decor and I’m big on aesthetics.
Definitely curious to know if anyone else has used a similar technique to curb their shopping urges!
submitted by killalipstick to shoppingaddiction [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:32 Silent_Citizen Serious issues with chase.com

I have been a Chase credit card holder for years. I usually have chase.com call my land-line number for 2FA. It's always worked, until yesterday. Now it says it has called and asks for the code, but the phone never rings (yes, I have verified that the phone is working fine.)
I called Customer Service and they were able to help me get in. I went into my Profile to add my Cell number to phone numbers. After adding the number it asks to either send me a Text or Call me, but regardless of what I choose, it shows the landline number. The newly added cell number is nowhere to be found.
When I go into the Pay Card section and enter the information, the click Schedule Payment, only my automatic minimum monthly payment that was set up ages ago shows up. Under Payment Activity the newly scheduled payment does not appear and I receive no confirmation code.
I have tried deleting cookies for the site but (no surprise) it doesn't help, and I'm back to not being able to get in (due to no 2FA code phone call being received.)
I'm very, very close to closing my Chase account because of this.
submitted by Silent_Citizen to Chase [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:31 littlemisstummyaches AITA For Not Inviting My Grandmother to my Graduation Party?

Hi Charlotte, I’m an avid fan and I’ve been watching for years, plus your vids are the only thing that has gotten me through the worst 18 years of my life, so without further ado here is a story full of fake names and bitches. So I (18F) am graduating in early June and to say I’m thrilled to be out of high school is an understatement. I’ve always been a bit of an ugly duckling nerdy kind of girl, especially within my immediate family such as my mom, Karmen, my aunt Noreen (her sister), my older cousin, Katelyn, my oldest sister and Karmen’s favorite first born golden baby, Jen. This opinion was made known by all of them when Katelyn would call me a “failed fix me baby” and terrorize me in every way you could imagine, constantly reminding me that my dad wanted three kids (im the youngest of four🤠) and that my mom only forced my dad into a fourth thinking he wouldn’t be able to leave her (he did anyway). My father has also confirmed this as did everyone else when they witnessed this themselves and said nothing. However, I am extremely extroverted by nature and love people (for the most part), and this is how I’ve met some of the best and worst people ever. Unfortunately, I moved going into my junior year to a new school, because Karmen couldn’t afford the rent in our old town and promised me a car if I agreed to moved as it was easier and cheaper (I also like didn’t actually have the option she just needed me to tell her family it was my choice so they would get off her ass).
To sum up a gruesome and horrible story, plus the other 17 years I lived with her (this about to be discussed event happened last June), an argument ensued about her not keeping up to her promises and once I accepted defeat, I begged her to leave my room, she didn’t leave, I threw my wallet, she then picked it up, brought it outside, and threw it across the street with all my money and my debit card in it, and then when I ran to get to it before she could, she grabbed me from behind and I ended up in the ER with a golf ball on my head, a concussion, and honestly, a little bit of a death wish. And even though I possess literal PHOTO EVIDENCE of the injuries and medical records, and an entire RESTRAINING ORDER, her entire family has listened to her and my grandma’s, Ellen, side of the story, who told my brother (also estranged) that after the event both of us were no longer welcome at her house, and she continued to ignore my existence every day and holiday afterward, even the annual Christmas Eve celebration. Because the petty potato queen herself taught me two important things, 1. Never stay anywhere you’re not wanted, and 2. The best way to seek petty revenge.
So, what did I do you ask? I sent the photos (printed out because it’s more personal that way) and a hand written, passive aggressive letter thanking Ellen for nothing and the monster she raised, and signed it with my new middle name, which used to be her, Ellen, but is no longer. After this, Jen called our dad (they have a very rocky relationship, plus she is just Karmen 2.0) and tore him a new one saying I threatened Ellen and was an insane bitch, told him I ruined Ellen’s Christmas by showing her those photos, AND the most important thing to them, and I quote “her name is ‘first Ellen’ not ‘first new middle name’”. First off, I did not threaten anyone, as I am only a little crazy, and I mostly move in the shadows like the wise judge Charlotte has taught me. BUT ALSO they were so pressed about the name changed because Ellen no longer had a name sake. After that, I have not spoken to Ellen or any other characters since, as I want to protect my peace and my sanity.
However, here is where the graduation party comes in. For my grad party, I invited my godmother, Judith (Ellen’s sister), and my Gruncle Danny (Ellen’s brother) whom I adored, and as far as I new at the time, were neutral. Yet, after sending my Evite link, as well as requesting not to tell Ellen the details of my grad party, I was greeted with a lecture on how the family was already broken enough and how Ellen was crushed by me cutting her off, and that I needed to invite Ellen, Jen, Karmen, Noreen, Katelyn, and the rest of my immediate family because they were family and it was wrong to pursue legal action against family. Followed by that bullshit, was either being ignored, left on read, or, if lucky, texted, that they were not attending because I was in the wrong. I truthfully only ask the wise Charlotte because my therapist told me not to let anger cloud my judgement, but I’m just starting to heal and I can’t handle seeing them there, and I couldn’t invite Karmen if someone held a gun to my head because she is,b and I stress this, ON TRIAL for CHIKD ABUSE, AND I have a RESTRAINING ORDER against her. This is also her second arrest for assault, and her twentieth run in with CPS.
Truthfully, I don’t want them there and I don’t think I’m wrong, but maybe I am making a mistake? Idk, truthfully, and this sounds cruel, after the crap they put me through I wouldn’t care if they all dropped dead tomorrow, and if that were to happen, then at least I wouldn’t be looking over my shoulder all the time. But maybe I’m wrong, so AITA?
I know this is pretty heavy, but whether yall think I’m a big butthole, I truly wouldn’t be on this earth if it weren’t for Charlotte, I quite literally live for her videos and she makes my day!
submitted by littlemisstummyaches to CharlotteDobreYouTube [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:30 OwnNegotiation1000 Paid promotional accounts, bots and free ads

I've been watching the discord channel and several things seem really strange to me.
Excessively high number of users, although the same ones always participate, so the majority must be fake users or bots to increase the number of followers
Just like on Twitter his publications barely have dozens of like retweets or most of them not even that, when he has 130,000 followers
The discord channel seems like a paid promotion
Only good things are said about the game and everyone shows legendary shiny cards that are given in rare packs
when I have never had any legendary shiny card or any rare pack
It is clear that buying packs is wasting money because you can buy the same cards for more than half the price on the market
Ignore, delete or ban people who propose more transparency in the game or try to get GU to give some official explanation of the sealed exploit (which is a basic thing)
It seems to me that the discord channel is paid advertising for GU or fans of that game who do not question anything, or players who received the airdrop of gods and imx and therefore are in great benefits and forever grateful to GU
I would like people to expose the game's problems more and for GU to really do something to improve them, not read a bunch of fans or bots who that do not contribute anything or give constructive feedback to the game
submitted by OwnNegotiation1000 to GodsUnchained [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:29 Puzzleheaded-Pay2299 Elderly grandparents immigrating to USA with no plan around health insurance, extremely concerned

Long story short, my elderly grandparents on my mothers side have recently been sponsored/approved for a Green Card through my aunt (mothers sister). I only learned of this recently, and both my father and I are concerned of the potential financial implications. My mother is only thinking through this from an emotional perspective, and wants to see her parents as they get older.
Grandmother is in her 70s, grandfather in his 80s. Both have a number of health issues (grandpa is worse off, and has dealt with heart issues in the past).
There has been no talk about how their health needs will be meet here in the US. The plan (at least initially) is to have my grandparents live with my parents for 4-6 months in California. God forbid they face any sort of medical issues while in the US, I imagine this could completely wipe my parents out.
Not being a health insurance expert by any means, I was hoping you kind folks could help me wrap my head around the potential financial implications here.
If I'm understanding correctly, it sounds like they may be eligible for Medi-cal...am I wrong?
Even with Medi-cal, their age and status of their health is causing alarms to go off for me. I am thinking of all the things that could go wrong during while they are here, which could potentially wipe out my parents financially.
I'm really just trying to get some rough ballpark figures so I can back up my argument that this is a terrible idea. Even if they are just examples (e.g. if your grandfather needed heart surgery while in CA and had Medi-cal, here is what sort of out of pocket cost your family could be looking at). Thanks all.
submitted by Puzzleheaded-Pay2299 to HealthInsurance [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:25 ScrapDragon2 1st Time Locals - 1st Place Seniors/Masters Future Box Deck

Just a preface for this: My deck is built for Standard, but the event was held as Expanded. My locals is fairly small, so your results may vary should you wish to try this build.
Howdy folks. Some may recognize me from trying to homebrew various decks. Today, I took my own breed of Future Box to my first locals and went effectively undefeated. (6-1-0 across 3 rounds.) I went into this event expecting some absolute degeneracy, but lucked out in not seeing anything like Vileplume lockout. I'll breakdown my card choices under the decklist, and post my match-ups and results in a comment.
Visual Decklist Link

Pokemon: 19 Trainers: 28 Energy: 13
4x Iron Valiant ex 4x Arven 3x Grass Energy
3x Iron Crown ex 3x Iono 2x Fighting Energy
1x Iron Leaves ex 2x Boss's Orders 8x Psychic Energy
1x Iron Boulder ex 1x Penny
1x Iron Jugulis (Paradox Rift) 1x Jacq
3x Miraidon (Temporal Forces) 1x Roxanne
3x Dunsparce (Temporal Forces) 4x Future Booster Energy
3x Dudunsparce (Temporal Forces) 1x TM: Devolution
4x Techno Radar
2x Buddy-Buddy Poffin
2x Switch Cart
1x Prime Catcher
1x Pal Pad
1x Super Rod
Card choices:
-Iron Leaves ex: Honestly, Leaves was here pretty much entirely for the Charizard ex match-up, in which I faced zero. It didn't really do much outside of one game that it wound up sealing the game out. I'd still keep it in, but it didn't see too much play.
-Iron Boulder ex: Hoooooo boy! This one is a SPICY pick. I entirely picked it for the Future Hands/Iron Hands Turbo match-up, but ended up putting in a good amount of work against both my Round 1 and Round 2 opponents. I 100% did not regret playing a copy of it in my deck.
-Iron Jugulis: I wanted a different non-ex basic attacker to use in the deck, so I opted for Jug. Jug... Did nothing. The one time I put it onto the board, I regretted it as it would've been better as discard fodder. Would not run again.
-3 Grass, 2 Fighting Energy: Pretty much dumb prizing reasons. I was very much justified, as a fair number of games, 1+ of each ended up getting prized, which caused some weird workarounds to be played. Thankfully Grass wasn't as an impactful loss than it could've been.
-Dudunsparce engine: Even though I sometimes struggled to get Dudunsparce into play, the draw power was greatly appreciated. I'm not 100% sure on a 3/3 line, 2/2 might work just as well. We don't have many options for draw power, and I opted for the Dudunsparce engine.
-TM: Devolution: Quite literally a dead card all day. Everything I faced was Stage 1 or Basics, and I just never had a reason to search it out.
-Switch Cart: A recommendation from someone else, but honestly it never really came into play. The healing actually was used once, but it had zero impact on the game. Switch works just as well.
Other things I'd consider playing:
-Miraidon ex: I was debating between this and Valiant for the tournament. Valiant did pretty well, and I feel like Miraidon ex would do just as well... But it requires testing. Would work better in a post Twilight Masquerade format, though.
-Lost Vacuum: Utility. Removing some stuff from the board would be greatly more valuable over some stuff in the deck.
-Hisuian Heavy Ball: Prizing 1 or more Crowns feels so bad, especially when you just BARELY miss out on a KO due to not having a stack of Crown + Booster. Came up a fair bit in play, but managed to play around it.
-Possibly more searching power for my Dudunsparces. I'm trying to keep my deck as Standard legal as possible, so options are a tad limited.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to leave them and I'll do my best to respond to them.
submitted by ScrapDragon2 to pkmntcg [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:21 premiumstyle Brim Referral Code - Get $10 sign up bonus. 19538 - The Low-Fee Foreign Exchange Card (Canada)

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Code does not expire and is unlimited. Enjoy
 
https://brimfinancial.com/?code=19538
 
submitted by premiumstyle to CanadaReferralCodes [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:12 Repulsive_Union2244 [[FOR HIRE]] -- Pay Someone to Take My Statistics Exam For Me Reddit -- Take My Statistics Test For Me -- Do My Statistics Exam -- Statistics Exam Taker -- Pay Someone to Take My Online Statistics Class For Me -- Pay Someone to Take My Statistics Class For Me -- MATH: Probability Algebra MyStatLab

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submitted by Repulsive_Union2244 to Statisticshelpers_ [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:11 Salty-Result-8425 Image: Text message from someone pretending to be a representative from my bank asking me to call them and confirm personal information using a sliver of personal information they may have phished through my phone data or gotten via data breach.

Image: Text message from someone pretending to be a representative from my bank asking me to call them and confirm personal information using a sliver of personal information they may have phished through my phone data or gotten via data breach.
I got this text this morning after paying a few bills. I have only ordered items from trusted sites such as Amazon, Native, Redbubble or Rebellion Republic. I have no way to confirm for certain whether this was a phishing related attack or some kind of data leak that someone took advantage of, however I’d like to note that the websites I’ve ordered from have record of my full name, phone number and certain card details. The number they told me to call, called me, and asked me if I was (my legal first and last name) and if my phone number was associated with the card numbers. I know this is a scam because upon research my local news outlet as well as the bank has stated they will never call us to reach out for personal information. Not to mention they’re closed today so there’s no reason they’d be calling even if it was them. If anyone with the number above texts you or the number below calls you, don’t respond and get a new card if possible.
submitted by Salty-Result-8425 to Scams [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:08 Humble-Regular-7407 Need some advice on obtaining a social security card.

Hello I'm 19 I had a social card a while ago but I ended up losing it. I have a birth certificate and that's it I don't have a driver's licence or a school id or any other form of id or even mail really with my name on it and I just wanted to ask if it's possible to apply for a new card. I do in fact know my number but my birth certificate is all I have left right now. If anyone could help me out I'd appreciate it alot, enjoy your day guys.
Forgot to mention that I don't have any sort of connection to my parents either my mother lives real far away somewhere not sure same goes for my father, didn't have the best relationship, they are also pretty crazy.
submitted by Humble-Regular-7407 to SocialSecurity [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 21:05 murpleturkey [self] Odds of identical card shuffles, the birthday problem and the birthday attack

There have been lots of interesting social media posts lately making use of the fact that the number of ways a deck of 52 cards can be ordered is astronomically large. Specifically, 52! ways, or 8e67 in scientific notation. It's therefore mathematically impossible that more than a tiny fraction of these possible orders have been actually shuffled since the beginning of time.
These posts take it a step farther, making examples of the number of times you'd have to shuffle a deck before you'd be likely to get an identical ordering. Most examples seem to shoot for 52!/2, or 4e67 shuffles before it's more likely than not that you'd find an identical ordering. I believe these estimates are incorrect, and I'm going to use the classic "birthday problem" to illustrate why.
The birthday problem imagines an empty room, with people walking in one by one. As the population of the room incrementally increases, the problem asks this "at what point is it more likely than not that 2 people in the room share a birthday?" The common, intuitive, and also incorrect answer is 365/2 people, or 183 whole human beings. However, this is answering a different question. 183 people is the point at which it's more likely than not that someone shares a birthday with the FIRST person in the room. What was actually asked was the odds that ANY two people share a birthday. We need to take into account all the possible pairings of people in the room. When we do that, we find that the answer is 23. There are 253 ways to pair up 23 people, far more than half the number of days in a year. This surprisingly low answer is known as the birthday paradox.
Taking it back to the card problem, we can see that 52!/2 is actually the point at which it becomes likely that you'll get a duplicate of shuffle #1. But we're looking for the point that it's likely that ANY two shuffles are identical. It follows then that point must be much, much sooner than 52!/2. Still likely an enormous number, but much smaller than commonly stated. But how would we calculate it? We could try to use the same formula commonly used to solve the birthday problem: find the odds of a unique shuffle for N number of shuffles.
The odds of shuffle 1 being unique: 1, or course.
The odds of shuffle 2 being unique: (52!-1)/52!
The odds of shuffle 3 being unique: (52!-2)/52!
The odds of shuffle 4 being unique: (52!-3)/52!
To get the odds that all of these four shuffles are unique, we need to multiply. So, the probability of all four shuffles being unique is: (52!-1)(52!-2)(52!-3)(52!-4)/52!^4.
Taking it to an arbitrary n number of shuffles, we could calculate the odds like this: (52!-1)(52!-2)...(52!-(n-1))/52!^(n-1)
What we want to know is, at what n do the odds of all shuffles being unique drop below .5?
You can see that calculating numbers this big becomes totally unworkable very quickly. What we need is a way to come up with a good estimate. That's where the Birthday Attack comes in.
The Birthday Attack is a cryptographic attack that tries to find collisions in hash functions. For a hash function f(x)=H, with H being the number of all possible function outputs, how many random inputs would we have to put in until it's more likely than not that we get a duplicate H? The Birthday Attack has an answer: roughly 1.25*sqrt(H).
If we take f(x) to be our card shuffling function, which is already random by nature, H would be the total number of possible ways a 52 card deck can be ordered, which we already know to be 52!. So, we can estimate the point at which a duplicate shuffle becomes more likely than not as 1.25*sqrt(52!), or 1.12e34. Still a huge number, but many factors smaller than the commonly stated 4e67!
If you read this far, thank you for entertaining my random mathematical musings! Below are the links to the wiki entries for the Birthday Problem and the Birthday Attack, which I find incredibly interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_attack
submitted by murpleturkey to theydidthemath [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 20:59 sideswipe781 UFC 301: Pantoja vs Erceg Full Card Betting Preview Sideswipe MMA

Lifetime - Staked: 865.9u, Profit/Loss: +28.08u, ROI: 3.24%, Parlay Suggestions: 164-63 Dog of the Week: 13-14
2024 - Staked: 218.8u, Profit/Loss: -5.28, ROI: -2.41%
As always, scroll down for UFC 301 Breakdowns. The following is just a recap of last event’s results.
UFC Vegas 91 (PREVIOUS CARD)
Staked: 8.5u
Profit/Loss: -0.29u
Parlay Suggestions: 2-3
Definitely not my best work there, but a testament to why hedging is an important tool to utilise when possible because it bailed me out of some bad bets. Thanks to those early moves, I managed to reduce my losses a lot more, so I’m happy with the overall results despite actually getting most of my bets wrong here. Onama’s ability to hit that reversal from back control was ridiculous, and if Pearce addressed that I think he would have been just fine. Guskov was a nice hit. Nicolau getting flatlined was not.
❌ 2u Matheus Nicolau to Win at -170
✅ 1u Bogdan Guskov to Win at +175 (won +1.75u)
❌ 1u Jonathan Pearce to Win at -140
❌ 1u Jonathan Pearce to Win & Over 1.5 Rounds at +150
❌ 1u Maheshate to Win by KO/TKO at +150
✅ 2u Liang/Petrovic FDGTD & Means/Medic FDGTD at -105 (won +1.9u)
❌ 0.25u Na Liang to Win in Round 1 at +1200
❌ 0.25u Parlay Pieces at +633
✅ Mayes/Machado Arb (won +0.63u)
✅ Silva/Lipski Arb (won +0.93u)

UFC 301
We really were spoiled by UFC 299 and UFC 300, because this PPV looks anaemic in comparison. I guess it’s mainly because those events used up some of Brazil’s biggest names (Pereira, Figgy, Moicano, Andrade, Jailton, Marina, Lopes, Burns), and these kinds of cards are always Brazil vs the World (my favourite kind of style of card). I’m still looking forward to it compared to the typical Apex garbage though=, so no complaints from me!
It didn’t take long to realise that this card has been curated to be very Brazilian friendly. I am absolutely not one of these conspiracy theorists who thinks the UFC is rigged, but I think it’s very important when betting to ask yourself WHY this fight was booked (especially for PPVs). The UFC’s business model runs off creating stars and generating hype (the existence of DWCS proves this), so these kind of cards are the perfect opportunity to do that. The matchmakers are literally paid to make decisions on who fights who, so none of this stuff is accidental. If you’re familiar with my history as an MMA Trader, you’ll know that thinking about public perception is where my skills lie, so I’m always excited for PPVs because there’s extra narrative in a lot of the fights.
Let’s get into it!

Alexandre Pantoja v Steve Erceg
This is a very weird main event. The Flyweight division is starting to fade again, as its top 15 is littered with fighters who have either shown their ceiling is below championship quality, or guys who aren’t active enough to be given title shots. Erceg has managed to bag himself a title shot from 11th in the rankings, despite having only three fights in the company. Aside from fighters coming into the organisation with a strong reputation in combat sports, or women’s divisions, I can’t think of a fighter who has made their way to a title shot quicker than Erceg has in recent years.
Historically, I bet on Pantoja against most opponents because I’ve always been convinced he’s been championship calibre, and has multiple paths to victory every time. I have tried to fade Erceg mostly due to the rapid stepping up in competition, but I also bet him against Costa.
I know there’s a bit of a theme with me being non-committal towards betting on title fights (except Pereira last event, hehe), but I think this is probably an acceptable fight to shrug my shoulders at – purely because of the unknowns regarding Erceg. I don’t really think you can look at his performance against Alessandro Costa or David Dvorak and come away with any conclusion regarding his chances against Pantoja. I guess you could take something from the opening five minutes against Schnell…but that’s still not a great comparison because Schnell’s biggest weakness is still Pantoja’s biggest strength (chin/durability)?
On the flipside, what we do know about Erceg is that some of his best strengths are actually in the areas that Pantoja looks to exploit. The Brazilian is one of the most durable fighters in MMA history, having never been finished in 32 professional bouts – 14 of which took place in the UFC. He weaponizes that by pushing a pace and creating chaos that he knows he can be the more durable fighter in. Aside from that, he’s also got an elite submission game, and his grappling is top notch. His striking certainly isn’t bad either.
But, as I said, that doesn’t sound as much of a nightmare for Erceg as it does for a lot of other guys. Steve’s done most of his work in the UFC on the feet, where he has shown some very impressive durability (and on the regional scene). People also therefore forget that he’s primarily a grappler also, having six submissions on his record. Of course I expect him to be inferior to Pantoja in both areas, but I don’t see him getting steamrolled like Perez, Royval (1) or Schnell did.
So whilst there are still a hell of a lot of unknowns about Erceg, what we do know is enough to predict that this is unlikely to be Pantoja’s most dominant win. If the Brazilian can’t get finishes against an opponent, he has to rely on his minute winning ability. Whilst those are still very good skills (and enough to get the better of Brandon Moreno!), it’s definitely the way he can be exploited the most (a 9-5 record in fights that go the distance, to quantify that belief).
So in short, despite not having much confidence in my line here, I have to grade Pantoja as less of a favourite than the books currently do, but a favourite nonetheless. Erceg’s ceiling is still unknown, but logic would dictate that this is too much too soon. It’s therefore no bet from me on the moneyline, but my belief in Erceg’s durability will obviously lead me to consider the overs in this fight. Not too sure what I expect to see here but if the FGTD is plus money then I’ll probably get involved somehow. Keep an eye on the bet list at the bottom of the post to see what/if I bet.
How I line this fight: Alexandre Pantoja -188 (65%), Steve Erceg +188 (35%)
Bet or pass: I may look at the overs, but the ML is a pass
Prop leans: None

Jonathan Martinez v Jose Aldo
Second fight, second non-committal stance, I’m afraid. I know this one is around a pick’em, and I know it’s super interesting…but do any of you train with Jose Aldo or know him personally? If not, I don’t think any of us have even the slightest clue how he’s going to look in the cage after almost two years on the sidelines. Yes, he’s been boxing, which gives some positive signs that he’s still keeping in some sort of shape – but he drew with Jeremy Stephens and beat two guys with combined pro records of 0-9-1. Hardly enough to believe he’ll be as sharp as when he was an active UFC fighter.
Jonathan Martinez on the other hand is eight years younger than Jose Aldo, and in his athletic/career prime. He’s currently riding a six-fight winning streak that includes wins over Said Nurmagomedov and Adrian Yanez. He’s a very well-rounded fighter that uses leg kicks to great effect, as is typical from a Factory X homegrown talent. He’s also been criminally underrated in these last few years after the shock loss to Davey Grant. Dude was -105 against Zviad Lazishvili (who even is that?), and both of the aforementioned wins.
Unfortunately for Martinez, Aldo is not going to lose out to the leg kicking game, instead he may be the one landing the significant leg strikes there. That kind of takes away one of Martinez’s most reliable weapons, which makes this one even more interesting.
Other than that, I genuinely don’t know what more to say. Logic and history tells us that the younger and more conditioned Martinez should win here, but if Aldo manages to find a special Brazilian doctor of some sort, or if he just ends up being fortunate that father time is generous to him, then the Jose Aldo we know and love should confidently beat Jonathan Martinez.
Who wins this fight? I have no idea. Neither do you. That’s why it’s a pick’em. Don’t think about it anymore than that. Just pass and enjoy watching the questions get answered inside the cage.
How I line this fight: No idea.
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

Paul Craig v Caio Borralho
Hell yeah, I love it when we get fights like this. Guys I rate very highly and always look to bet, vs guys I think are massively overrated and always look to fade. In case it wasn’t obvious, Craig is the fade and Borralho is the prospect.
I have a lot of love and respect for Paul Craig. He’s long been one of the most successful and inspiring UK fighters – and his fights at various UFC Londons have often been the highlight of the entire events. Also, the man has an exquisite music taste - his walkout song choices always result in me finding new bands and albums to listen to. Thanks for that Paul!
But in terms of in-cage ability…he’s as one dimensional as it gets. His style is pretty much identical to Royce Gracie in the earliest UFC days. He has an elite submission game, but everything else in his skillset is hugely inferior, which will always limit him. Statistically, I rate all of his skills at a 3, but his pure submission game as a 9.
It’s been really fun to see the UFC booking Craig in fights that allow him to show his best work (as opposed to the Volkan Oezdemir fight, which was painful to watch), but MMA is much more complex than sheer submission ability. Against Muniz he was victorious because he was actually the superior striker, and also had the superior cardio that night…but the fight against Brendan Allen showed those limitations again. Going back to those aforementioned skillset rankings, Craig was inferior in every area of MMA, but he was matched or even trumped by Allen’s BJJ too. In short, I knew that Craig had no consistent way of winning that fight, and needed a high variance Hail Mary. I bet Allen quite confidently there.
And that conclusion is the exact same one I come to here. Caio Borralho is actually a severely underrated wrestler, and that is what makes him so great. I have no doubt that his wrestling is superior to Craig’s, which will result in more top control time for the Brazilian. Of course, Caio is an elite BJJ fighter himself, so like Allen and Muniz before him, I’m not worried about Craig’s offence from guard.
So the only other ways I see Craig winning this fight are the same as the Muniz fight, via superior striking or cardio. Right off the bat, I don’t think Craig’s a better striker than Caio (though it’s competitive enough), and the aforementioned wrestling success should stop that from being the story of the fight if Caio approaches the fight intelligently…but the cardio dynamic could be one to be wary of. I personally think the complaints about Caio’s cardio are vastly overdone – he’s won the third round on 11 of the 12 scorecards that has been submitted in his UFC career (if we ignore the point deduction against Omargadzhiev).
Therefore, that leads me to conclude that I think this is a well-booked fight by the UFC, who want to bolster the record and popularity of one of their most interesting Brazilian prospects and get a big win for the home crowd. Craig will give Caio the fight he wants, and he will likely lose in doing so. Caio should win this fight at least 80% of the time, I think…which gives me about 6-7% of value on the -275 price tag I pounced on. As expected, that’s long gone now. That’s a 5u bet for me.
How I line this fight: Paul Craig +400 (20%), Caio Borralho -400 (80%)
Bet or pass: 5u Caio Borralho to Win (-275)
Prop leans: Caio could win this fight in any of the three ways tbh.

Anthony Smith v Vitor Petrino
The UFC reward Anthony Smith for his years of warrior spirit, company-first mentality, and his contributions on the UFC analyst bench…with a fight against one of the LHW division’s scariest upcoming prospects. How generous of them. Nonetheless, Smith is still talking crazy in interviews saying he’s close to a title shot with a win here, lol.
Vitor Petrino had one of those questionable records coming into the UFC. People have tried to fade him with Anton Turkalj, Marcin Prachnio, Modestas Bukauskas, and most recently Tyson Pedro. I understood the Modestas one, but the others were ridiculous. I bet Petrino at -250 against Pedro, and I think he definitely justified the price tag there.
Petrino is just so physically imposing. Whether he’s using his wrestling or striking, it just always feels like his opponents are tentative that Petrino’s about to do something explosive and dangerous. It’s been quite impressive seeing him show off his wrestling ability, as most believed him to be a pure striker that would struggle on the ground.
Anthony Smith is a very interesting litmus test for any aspiring top 15’er though, because despite the fact that Smith is very shopworn and clearly a bit mentally muddled (the “you attacked my family” thing against Walker was terrifying and really should not have been glossed over IMO), he is still a very well-rounded martial artist that is respectably skilled everywhere. He can be outgrappled by a safe guard-chilling gameplan, or just by generally being a more powerful striker though, as seen in his multitude of losses in recent years to the likes of Rountree, Walker, Ankalaev, Rakic, and Teixeira.
Those are two routes that Petrino can take, because we’ve already seen him follow those paths on multiple occasions. Whilst that’s clearly enough to deem him the favourite against a clearly declining Smith, this is enough of a step up in competition that I’m not convinced enough by Petrino to get on board with the idea of him being -400. Yes he probably goes and starches Lionheart, but if the finish doesn’t present itself easily then I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this one turn more competitive than that line indicates. Therefore, -200 to -250 sounds like an appropriate price to me, so it’s no bet.
How I line this fight: Anthony Smith +250 (29%), Vitor Petrino -250 (71%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

Michel Pereira v Ihor Potieria
This is a pretty simple one to break down. Doesn’t surprise me that it kicks off the main card. This fight makes absolutely no sense from a ranking perspective, but it makes all the sense in the world from a narrative and promotional perspective.
Michel Pereira is one of the hardest non-Heavyweight hitters in the UFC. Ihor Potieria is a bang average fighter that is basically being used as a litmus test for a lot of unproven prospects. He’s a very beatable fighter and the perfect sacrificial lamb to get you an easy UFC win on your record. He was originally scheduled to face Shara Bullet Magomedov, who is definitely flavour of the month. Hell, they even tried to use him as a softball for 40 year old Shogun Rua last year!
Potieria’s recent upset win over Robert Bryczek does demonstrate that he’s got SOME life in him though, but there’s a massive difference between Bryczek and Michel Pereira. Potieria isn’t overly interested in shooting for takedowns either, making this even more of a nightmare fight for him.
Another highlight reel KO for Michel Pereira is expected, and I’d be quite surprised if he didn’t get it here. Therefore, I fully expect that prop to be priced at something around the -150 mark, maybe even steeper.
Took some time for the line to come out but -400 sounds about right in my eyes. I decided to combine Pereira with Mateusz Rebecki on next week’s card. -140 for the double.
How I line this fight: Michel Pereira -450 (82%), Ihor Potieria +450 (18%)
Bet or pass: Potentially on the KO, price dependant
Prop leans: See above

Joaquim Silva v Drakkar Klose
This was the first bet I made on this card, and I placed it a couple of weeks ago when the line was much closer. I bet Drakkar Klose at -137.
I bet against Drakkar Klose when he faced Joe Solecki last time, and I’m still frustrated by how unlikely that finish was. Klose was definitely looking the inferior fighter there, but a moment of brilliance can be all it takes sometimes.
This one seems pretty cut and dry to me. Klose is a well-rounded fighter whose biggest issue had typically been his lack of finishing ability, but he’s still a very reliable fighter that will work hard for 15 minutes. He’s been in competitive fights with the likes of Beneil Dariush, Marc Diakiese, and Bobby Green in his time, and these bouts have spanned across all different realms of MMA. He’s never really done anything that will blow your hair back (aside from being on the receiving end of that amazing KO by Dariush, and the recent slam of Solecki), but I think that makes him a bit underrated. He’s 36 years old now, but he’s never been the fastest fighter, nor has he had a long and gruesome career.
Joaquim Silva has a similar level of experience, but his UFC record paints a different picture by comparison. The calibre of fighters he has lost two really does vary, but a decision loss to Vinc Pichel, as well as being finished by Ricky Glenn and Nasrat Haqparast, doesn’t really fill someone with confidence.
Silva’s most recent win came against 41-year-old Clay Guida, where he clearly lost a round and honestly could have lost the fight with a couple of adjustments. That fight was a terrible look for the -320 favourite, and to me that was a clear indication that he seems to be on the decline. Klose, by comparison, seems to be operating on a similar enough level to how he has done for most of his UFC career. Yes he has taken a step down in competition lately, but he’s performing as you would expect him to.
Statistically, Silva has a negative strike differential, and most of the key metrics are inferior to Klose as well. There’s every chance that this one turns into a barn burner, which would definitely suit the more dangerous Brazilian...but I fully expect Drakkar Klose to put on a typical 15 minute performance, where he settles down into his pace, and mixes in his superior striking and wrestling to coherently win rounds. It probably won’t be the most entertaining fight we’ve ever seen, but a commanding win is perfect for me. A vintage Drakkar Klose performance.
In terms of the betting line, I had Klose capped at around -200. The -137 available was a steal and I was very keen to take it, but I’d definitely be passing on this fight if I was looking at it for the first time now. Another reason why it’s important to keep track of my bet list at the bottom of each post, as I gave this out when -137 was widely available.
How I line this fight: Drakkar Klose -200 (67%), Joaquim Silva +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: 2u Drakkar Klose to Win (-137)
Prop leans: None

Alessandro Costa v Kevin Borjas
Alessandro Costa is a very flawed fighter. Good skills across the board, but the guy’s volume is so, low. I bet against him when he faced Steve Erceg, and that was most of the reason.
He faces Kevin Borjas, who we don’t know much about other than he isn’t as good of a striker than Joshua Van…which doesn’t tell us much at all. He did win a round in that fight, but that’s because Van is a bit of a slow starter and will take some time to get going.
I didn’t do tape on this one because I’m still kind of unsure about Borjas, and the betting line kind of reflects that the books don’t either. He’s a non-committal underdog at +110, where the books think he’s inferior but they don’t believe it with any degree of confidence. That sounds about right to me.
I just hope Costa wins this one so I might get another opportunity to fade him in the future.
How I line this fight: I didn’t tape but it looks about right to me.
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

Dione Barbosa v Ernesta Kareckaite
I lost money on Kareckaite’s DWCS fight, in what was brilliant demonstration of why you really shouldn’t bother betting or researching that show. Ernesta basically followed the blueprint I thought Judice was going to use, almost like I’d gotten the fighters the wrong way around. Super high variance when they’re so green.
And we’ve got more green-ness here. Both women have less than 10 professional fights. Barbosa is a -225 underdog. I’d blindly fade that if you had to bet on this fight. Otherwise I’d leave it alone. Take it as an opportunity to learn more about them for next time.
How I line this fight: Don’t know, didn’t tape
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

Joanderson Brito v Jack Shore
Banger. This is potentially the most exciting fight on the card, as you have to really high skilled grapplers facing off against one another.
I am convinced that Joanderson Brito is quite overrated. He’s so explosive and dangerous, that it actually makes up for some pretty significant flaws. He’s an awful minute winner, and any opponent that is able to stay safe against him is likely going to win on the scorecards. He has bulldozed three opponents in R1, shown a moment of brilliance against Jonathan Pearce, and been out-hustled by Bill Algeo. That shows a 4-1 UFC record, but all I see is a guy who has actually lost more minutes in the UFC cage than he’s won. I think he’s also getting second hand hype because he beat Diego Lopes on DWCS, and that guy is possibly the most exciting prospect in the UFC right now.
So can Jack Shore stay safe here? Well he’s definitely got the grappling to give it a good go. Just like Jonathan Pearce before him, Shore can use his intense wrestling to stay safe from Brito’s striking. Shore also has good BJJ, which makes me feel confident he can avoid Brito’s opportunistic but ultimately low percentage submission from bottom – at least better than Pearce did.
Obviously the striking is where Brito has a big advantage, and his dangerousness will certainly show itself there in the early goings. Shore hasn’t really fought any dangerous strikers in his UFC tenure so far, so it’s kind of hard to say how well he will fare in those striking moments.
This is one of those fights where breaking down the betting line from a probability perspective just results in an uncomfortable feeling, however you spin it. Brito has more ways to win and is somewhat of a fan favourite, so I can understand why he has the minus next to his number. However, I can really easily see the path to victory for Jack Shore, and I don’t think it’s crazy to say he could go out there and look like a -300 favourite. But then if I think about making Shore the favourite I’m immediately thinking about how dangerous Brito is and how he could easily look -300 as well! It’s a mind fuck.
At the end of the day, the line is relatively close at the moment. Shore sits around +125 which, given he hasn’t fought for a year and is going up against the flavour of the month, I guess I’m okay with. If Shore moves to +140 or better, I think I’ll have to play him. I think he could easily do what Jonathan Pearce or Bill Algeo did. Brito is a boogeyman who is half the fighter he’s hyped up to be if he can’t find a finish.
How I line this fight: Joanderson Brito -110 (52%), Jack Shore +110 (48%)
Bet or pass: Pass, for now
Prop leans: Brito ITD probably the best looking prop available, Jack has too many paths

Elves Brener v Myktkbek Orolbai
Man, what does Elves Brener have to do to catch a break!? Dude steps into the UFC (possibly on short notice?) and gets a win as a massive underdog against Tukhugov, then pulls off another upset against Guram Kutateladze. His opponent pulls out of his third fight and they give him a guy with a 15-1 record. Now he’s 3-0 and you’d finally think they start to give him the chance to build up some hype…but then they go and book him against Myktkbek Orolbai!
For those who haven’t seen Orolbai’s debut against Uros Medic last year, it was definitely one of the best debuts of 2023. He stuck to the Serbian like glue and, despite some persistent get ups, managed to find the submission relatively easily in what was a dominant performance.
Unfortunately, that fight was so one-sided that we don’t really know anything else about Orolbai at this level, as his other recent bouts took place on LFA against guys with 18-14 and 10-7 records.
With no further relevant info, there are too many gaps to form an opinion on Orolbai. What I will say is that Elves Brener has continued to play spoiler so far in his UFC career and continues to be underrated by the books despite that. Does he deserve to be around +200 here? Only if Orolbai is the real deal.
We will get our answers, but there’s no reason to put money on this fight. Anyone who does is putting blind faith in nine minutes of dominance against a Serbian on the mat…or they’re just chatting shit.
How I line this fight: Impossible to say
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

Jean Silva v William Gomis
On the subject of underrated fighters, William Gomis features in our next bout. The Frenchman has a very underrated style, one that isn’t going to grab all the highlights or get him clamouring for a main event, but it’s still a very useful one inside the cage. He’s well-rounded, has great kicks to compliment a very technical striking style that goes well with his long frame. I was made first aware of Gomis when he dismantled the overhyped Cage Warriors prospect Tobias Harila. He was calm amongst the chaos, and put in a really professional performance that likely got the ball rolling to eventually earn him a UFC contract. The experience from that fight will serve him well here.
He faces Jean Silva, a very explosive Brazilian that trains with Caio Borralho’s Fighting Nerds. We saw him most recently when he obliterated the vastly inferior Westin Wilson – God knows how that kid got asked to come to the UFC. And they’re giving him a third fight. Really is an embarrassing company at this point.
Before that we saw Silva go 15 minutes on DWCS, and his style looks a lot less impressive when he can’t find a finish. There wasn’t much investment in striking fundamentals, everything was a big action with fight ending intentions. That’s all good when you’re fighting Westin Wilson who blocks punches with his face, but what about when you’re facing a talented kickboxer who prioritises defence and range management? I could very easily see Silva hitting air for 15 minutes.
So I think the line is the wrong way around here, and that William Gomis has the potential to win this one quite comfortable if he can play the matador game. Whilst that sounds like I am gearing up to bet him, I’m actually going to pass on this one currently. He’s only at +110 so it’s not like he’s at a clear underdog price, and considering he’s not the explosive fighter that’s going to be chasing the finish and doing the damage, I think he’s got more of a job to do to impress the judges. Furthermore, we are obviously in Brazil where I think the crowd can certainly emphasise the work that Silva does, which may twist the judges’ arm a bit more.
So there’s value on Gomis, but not enough to warrant a bet. It’s a reluctant pass for me. If there’s major line movement I might play Gomis at like +150, but I doubt it goes that far.
How I line this fight: Jean Silva +120 (46%), William Gomis -120 (54%)
Bet or pass: Pass, unless the line moves.
Prop leans: None

Karolina Kowalkiewicz v Iasmin Lucindo
If Craig v Borralho was a nice gift for me as a bettor, this is possibly my worst nightmare. I’m probably one of KK’s biggest fans, and Iasmin Lucindo is a prospect I am very high on. I bet on these women pretty much every time I can, and I think I’ve actually won money on both Moneylines and Method of Victorys in every fight they’ve both had since I started posting here.
If you read my stuff every week, you’ll know Karolina is my girl. Genuinely my favourite fighter. But I think this is the wake-up call she and I knew was coming eventually. KK’s resurgence has been such an inspiring journey, from getting absolutely brutalised, struggling badly with her mental health, taking the time off and coming back to string together four wins on the trot. That post-fight interview against Herrig was one of my favorite interview moments in UFC history.
But, having said all that, the UFC have been really kind to her. They’ve given her competitive fights that she is capable of winning if she keeps herself together…but Diana Belbita, Vanessa Demopoulos, Silvana Gomez Suarez, and Felice Herrig are certainly a lower calibre within WMMA who have already shown us their ceiling. Iasmin Lucindo is a completely different fighter.
Lucindo is a prospect, pure and simple. She’s got great striking, and great BJJ. I said when she fought Jauregui in her debut that these two could easily meet again in the top 5 of the division in a few years time, and I think her sophomore performance against Polyana Viana showed that (I bet her quite heavily in that one). Viana’s trash and it was the perfect matchup for her, but there’s reason to believe that this one could be too.
Kowalkiewicz’s resurgence has relied on her fighting opponents that mostly want to strike, and even if not, the wrestling of these women has been at a level she could handle…I don’t expect that to be the case against Lucindo. Iasmin has an advantage in speed, and age/youthfulness as 16 years the junior. We know that plays a massive part in fights, and I expect it to here. Karolina isn’t particularly good on the mat if those takedowns, but we just haven’t seen it for some time. If Lucindo gets top time, I think she probably manouvres her way to a submission with relative ease.
Of course, this one is much more competitive if they choose to strike, as Karolina’s got the right blend of determination, volume, and technique to keep any B grade or lower striker honest over the course of three rounds. Lucindo’s not the most amazing striker I have ever seen, but I also don’t expect her to be outclassed by Kowalkiewicz either. In WMMA, if you don’t have a unique striking style such as power or suffocating pressure (which neither girl has), then there’s only so much you can really do at this level to separate yourself as the superior striker. If they fight 100 rounds on the feet, I wouldn’t expect either woman to win more than 65 of the 100 times.
So that’s the key bit of information when looking at the betting line here. I know Lucindo deserves to be a significant favourite, due to youthfulness and a style that finally doesn’t actually suite her Polish opponent…but Karolina is sound enough to easily make this one competitive. If Lucindo doesn’t show a significant urgency or even desire to shoot takedowns, or if Karolina can stuff them, then this one looks much closer to a 50/50ish fight on the feet.
Whilst that sounds like I’m leaning towards playing my girl Karolina Kowalkiewicz, I’m unfortunately not. It’s impossible to really say how much success Lucindo is going to have with her takedown attempts here, so I can’t clearly quantify how much of a favourite she could be. If she can land them with ease, she might look -500. If she can’t land them at all, she could look +100. Compared to the -300 betting line we are getting, that definitely sounds like a pass. If you’re someone who likes to bet on every fight for the fun of it, a roll of the dice on Kowalkiewicz definitely isn’t the worst idea.
However, I will be keeping an eye out for that Lucindo by Submission prop. I doubt I’d get a good line on it with her being -300, but there’s always a chance the books get caught napping because it’s WMM and they expect a decision. We’ll see, I’d probably take +200 or better.
How I line this fight: Iasmin Lucindo -200 (66%), Karolina Kowalkiewicz +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: Pass on the ML, might bet Lucindo by Submission if I get a nice price (I’m talking +225 or better)
Prop leans: See above

Mauricio Ruffy v Jamie Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy has won all of his professional fights via KO, and has fought quite a few cans in his day. He is the -160 favourite and is obviously very undeserving of that price tag against a guy with a decent amount of UFC experience.
Jamie Mullarkey is very unreliable, has bad fight IQ, and just generally isn’t very good. Dude lost a striking fight to Michael Johnson and got KO’d by Nasrat Haqparast – two things I thought were very hard to do in this day and age.
Pick your poison. Or don’t, and just be smart and leave this fight alone.
How I line this fight: who knows
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

Ismael Bonfim v Vinc Pichel
Ismael Bonfim returns from what was originally a massive upset at the hands of Benoit Saint Denis last July, but thankfully for him the Frenchman’s performances since have helped that result age well, as he elevated himself to prospect status and faced Poirier.
I was sadly all aboard the Ismael Bonfim hype train, as I deemed his debut win over Terrance McKinney as arguable the debut of the year for 2023. McKinney’s actually been fraud checked a fair bit since then so that win has coincidentally aged badly on the reverse. Nonetheless, I still think this Bonfim is good and will eventually turn into a top 15 fighter (not like his brother, an overrated fraud that I faded against Nicholas fucking Dalby).
Either way, the UFC are trying to run the Ismael Bonfim hype back again by pitting him against a 40 year old Vinc Pichel, who they’re probably just looking to get off the books as he likely has a contract that pays far more than he’s worth (by the 10/10 standard, anyway). Pichel is old but not particularly shop worn due to lack of commitment to his MMA career. He’s a well-rounded guy that always seems to end up in grappling-based fights. He has been competitive with the likes of Mark Madsen, Austin Hubbard, Jim Miller and Roosevelt Roberts in recent years, which kind of paints the picture that he’s capable but limited.
I think it’s fair to assume that Ismael Bonfim really should have Pichel covered here. He’s the way more dangerous fighter, and will be the one having moments of success where he threatens to finish. Outside of some sort of massive cardio dump, I think he can either find a finish or competently win 2/3 rounds with relative ease.
He’s -400 on the betting line so the odds clearly reflect that. I definitely wouldn’t be interested in playing him at that number, seeing as he’s returning from a massive setback and may not be the same as he once was. I could see him winning via all three potential methods of victory, so I’m not really sure a bet is possible here.
How I line this fight: Ismael Bonfim -400 (80%), Vinc Pichel +400 (20%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None

Bets (Bold = been placed)
Xu Pantoja vs Erceg to last Over X.5 rounds (+XXX, can’t really say what I’d bet until I see numbers)
5u Caio Borralho to Win (-275)
1u Michel Pereira to Win by TKO/KO (+XXX, probably not bettable but I’d take under -150)
2u Michel Pereira + Mateusz Rebecki to Win (-105)
2u Drakkar Klose to Win (-137)
2u Jack Shore to Win (+140 or better)
1u Iasmin Lucindo to Win by Submission (+XXX, I’d take +225 or better)
0.25u Parlay Pieces (+XXX, props not out yet)
Parlay Pieces: Pantoja/Erceg Over 1.5 Rounds, Caio Borralho, Michel Pereira, Drakkar Klose, Ismael Bonfim
Dog of the Week: Jack Shore
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2024.04.28 20:55 ReplacementNo4400 Riders— do you understand how annoying you are on your phones?

So this a super common occurrence for me personally and it’s driving me fucking nuts. Riders on the phone or FaceTime— literally fuck yourself, honestly.
It’s ridiculously annoying having to turn my music down to basically nothing, and putting my windows up on beautiful days so you can talk to your boyfriend/girlfriend you are literally 20 minutes AWAY FROM.
And we can hear EVERYTHING. Do you know how many times I’ve heard about affairs, really personal sexual information, personal info. in general, private MEDICAL information including social security numbers, credit card numbers, family drama, crimes (stupid and violent), and everything in between?
-Countless- times.
Business calls are one thing, and totally understandable if it’s work related. But anything else?
Save. It. For. Home. Nobody wants to fuckin’ hear that shit. Get off your phone. I would literally rather listen to your shit playlist at 100 volume through your headphones than how your god damn beagle swallowed a teaspoon.
submitted by ReplacementNo4400 to uberdrivers [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 20:48 Willem_Nielsen Carrying the Mandelbrotian Torch: Using the human eye to test for probabilistic dependence

Carrying the Mandelbrotian Torch: Using the human eye to test for probabilistic dependence
Hello Fellow Mandelbrot Enthusiasts,
I love Mandelbrot's work and I'm working on applying his idea of visual science to different areas. My first application is in testing for dependence in Basketball to answer the question, "Is Basketball a Game of Runs?" My overarching goal is to remove the need for complex Mathematical bullshit using visual tests, effectively bringing science back to the common man. Please contribute any ideas you have, I want to hear your guys opinions.
Here's a quiz Mandelbrot gives. Of the difference graphs below, one is Brownian motion, one fractional Brownian motion, one a Levy process, two are real financial data, and three are multifractal forgeries. Can you tell which is which?
https://preview.redd.it/tgu59na5n9xc1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=6aceb6bcbba494475f5dcdf540e8f3e41fd38139
Answers here
I am fascinated by Mandelbrot's visual approach to science. In his book Misbehavior of Markets he comments,
Pictures are undervalued in science. A modern diagram or chart can be as precise as desired, and is no more costly than the computer that draws it. The picture can now aid, not mislead the scientist. It permits instant comparison, instant comprehension.
There was a famous scientific debate including the now late Daniel Kahneman over whether the "Hot Hand" effect was real or not. Current consensus is that it is real. I was curious if there was a "Hot Team" effect where teams were more likely to score after scoring. In my experience as a college basketball player and coach, it certainly feels like this exists. And basketball practitioners swear by it:
"Basketball is a game of runs!", they say.
I tried to tackle this problem using Mandelbrot's method, but found (at least on initial testing) that his eye test is not sensitive enough to pick up small changes of 2.5% dependence, which if the hot team effect exists it will be small. Here's what the Mandelbrot test looks like for 10,000 steps in a random walk with .525 probability dependence, meaning if you get a 1 you have a .525 chance of getting another 1 and same for -1.
https://preview.redd.it/lj1bkr07n9xc1.png?width=403&format=png&auto=webp&s=4de542d9c84478f58cd5b6e06081cdddca61c256
I have to generate more samples to really double-check if it can pick up the difference but just from that image I can't really tell.
So I devised a test that counts up the number of streaks of length 2 and plots their frequency. You can divide it up into chunks, to make it easier to see the difference between values. Here's what it looks like
https://preview.redd.it/pcfgnck8n9xc1.png?width=1252&format=png&auto=webp&s=15eae720d6efe6d51db065489ee9e05fc122acf7
So here you can actually test yourself using the manipulate to see if you can tell which one is dependent and which one is independent. With 10 chunks of 1000 and a dependence of 0.525, I am about 95% accurate at telling the difference, which is an improvement on the initial Mandelbrot method which I couldn't really tell at all. With 10 chunks of 500 I performed at about 80%. Once you go lower than that it starts to become impossible because I think the information is not actually there.
I encourage you to give it a try with the code below.
I applied this method to the Portland Trail Blazers NBA Team data and found that it didn't look dependent, which is evidence for this paper here. Here's what it looked like:
https://preview.redd.it/i07jnakcn9xc1.png?width=1088&format=png&auto=webp&s=378b7fdc0e1ac2070580450e6d178f2ef1f9a0b8
The left is fake independent, the middle is fake dependent, and the right is real. As you can see the real resembles the independent more than the dependent.
I'm working on trying out my eye test on college basketball and tennis data. Overall I think it's a powerful tool for detecting dependence without knowing the mathematics behind it. It's science for dummies, like me, who can't get their head around probability formulas. On a bigger picture it's a method for finding effective visual models for random events. My plan is to build up a set of visual tests so that I can quickly understand data with minimal effort.
Here's the Wolfram notebook to use the manipulates for yourself.
Thank you, reader.
Best,
Willem
submitted by Willem_Nielsen to fractals [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 20:45 Ryoma_Ryu Am I The Asshole For Not Wanting To be Friends With My Ex-Best Friend Of Four Years Over Things She's Done Over The Years And Then Did Something That In My Opinion Was Absolutely Unforgivable At Our Prom?

Sorry this is going to be long because there's just so much drama that happened and so much that led up to everything.
Back story: me (17 trans male) and my friend we'll call her Clover (18 F) have been friends for four years. Over this time she has done things like steal and compulsively lie to both me and my GF (18 F). She's stolen at least 1.5K worth of things from both of us, and potentially her other ex-friends as well. She's mainly stolen clothes under the pretext that she was going to borrow it for a couple days, and then never gave it back, but has also stolen jewelry that we let her borrow for A NIGHT. There are many other things that add to her shittyness as a person as a whole, like the fact that she has gotten physically violent with me because I made a joking remark about his Bowl Cut. Not to mention she's done drugs, drank, vaped, and smoked, all on school property before. She's extremely Bipolar, like both of my sisters, and one or more of my GF's sisters, so I've tried to be as understanding as I could with her even though she absolutely refuses to take her medication, just like my sister did, and my sister was very very abusive.
Now to the prom incident. All of us had been planning to go to our last prom together for MONTHS. We had everything planned down to who's house we were going to meet at before, and after prom, where we were going for food before and after, and we made she promise us to our faces that she was not going to make prom all about her. Well prom day rolls around and I show up at my GF's house at 08:55 (25 minutes later than we agreed because my mother wouldn't get up to drive me, but I called my GF at 08:30 telling her I would be very late and that I was sorry). Of course my girlfriend understood and said she was expecting that and that it wasn't a big deal. Well I got there and I helped her into her dress, which we had to change because it was too big around the bust. We expected Clover there at 16:30, and the prom started at 19:00 sharp. I texted Clover on my GF's phone asking her if she was on her way, two minutes later she responded with "I'm twelve minutes away". Yes I know it seems weird to text her on my girlfriend's phone, but she asked me to do it and I didn't have Clover's number saved in my phone. Fifteen minutes went by and Clover still wasn't there. My GF texted her asking "Hey, where are you. We thought you'd be here by now", but I managed to talk my girlfriend into giving her a five minute grace period because she might be on the other side of the tracks waiting for a train to pass. But nope, right away we received a text saying "I'm at home waiting for my clothes to dry.
Obviously we were mad because she said she was twelve minutes away, not waiting for her laundry. If she had been honest from us at the start, we would have been fine with waiting an extra half hour for her clothes, but she lied to us, and we both knew that where she lived was NOT twelve minutes away, it was actually half an hour away. Well when Clover finally got to Anna's house (My GF) she made Anna get out of bed to open an unlocked front door for her, even though we both called her and said the door was unlocked. While we were waiting for Clover we were laying on the bed cuddling watching Tiger And Bunny, an anime I really like. Well when Clover finally walks in she sees what I'm watching and starts heavily judging. I brushed it off thinking that maybe she really just thought that Boku No Hero Academia was better, and I didn't mind. I turned it off and we started getting to work on her makeup and helping her into her dress. Whenever I do makeup I always have the very paint for the people in the back look, or what's called a Drag Queen look, because I can't see crap without my glasses. Clover started laughing and making fun of the fact that I looked so bad, but I got over it and we all went out to eat before going to prom. At this point it's about 17:30 when we get to the restaurant that we were having dinner at, and wouldn't you know it, Clover misplaced her Credit Card somewhere. My GF had agreed to only pay for me because my mother didn't want to give me any money, but she paid for Clover too out of the kindness of her heart (I don't deserve this woman!) which thankfully we all ordered small enough dishes that my GF had three US dollars left in her wallet (We were only expecting to pay for our meals and get something that would fill us both up). The entire time we're there Clover is complaining about the man who took our order saying he was "Being really creepy and kept staring at her chest" and other things.
We got to prom and all was well for the first part of our visit, but halfway through Clover and Anna came out to the balcony where I was shouting for me (I had been looking for them for fifteen minutes and then decided to wait out there because they knew I loved to take pictures of the sky and trees). Clover said that we were leaving and she looked like she was on the brink of tears, when I asked why she stormed off and Anna said we were going to an ice cream parlour. We went down the stairs, grabbed a coffee on our way out, and said goodbye to our teachers. Out in the car park Clover started SOBBING, and I, not wanting to deal with that because of what happened last time she started crying, started following Anna and her friend Riley (18 M). Anna turned around and said that I was going with Clover, and I didn't want to dispute it out of respect for my girlfriend, just went over to Clover. Who started yelling at me from across the car park saying how Anna was her first priority out of everyone there. I really wanted to tell her that her first priority should be her and the people in her car, not someone else in a different car. But I bit my tongue and got in back and we drove off, following one of the guys from the party who told us to follow him to the parlour, though I'm pretty sure that he got his driver's license off the back of a Cereal Box because of how much he was swerving the entire time, though Clover wasn't any better because she was swerving with him and even going above the speed limit.
Well we get down to were the parlour was located and the guy turned left instead of right to where we were supposed to go, all of us in the car told her to just turn right and forget about him, but she didn't listen and followed him. We were going about ~40-48 KMPH in a 3KMPH drive through. Well Clover hit a curb so hard going that fast that we literally almost flipped in the drive. We all heard a very nasty sound come from the drivers side of the vehicle and me and other guy in the back looked at each other with a look of pure fear. We pulled into the car park of the ice cream parlour and Clover got out, looked at her tires and started screaming. I almost was forgotten and left in the back because her father had the car done to were the back doors ONLY opened from the outside. The other guy who was in the car with us let me out and Clover was still screaming, she was blaming everyone including us, the people who were in the car with her. Well I went inside and I'm not going to lie I was sobbing as well. My GF managed to calm me down, and she got a soft ice cream for me. I then remembered that Clover had my Sterling Silver necklace with three cultured Diamonds on it, that I let her borrow for the night and I explicitly asked her to give them back to me when I asked. I got out to the car park and she was still crying, I carefully went up to her and she turned around and screamed at me "I'M NOT TAKING YOU HOME!" and I calmly replied with "I need my necklace back, please." but she stormed into her car, which had two flats both on the driver's side and she left.
So, am I the asshole for not wanting to be friends with her after that?
submitted by Ryoma_Ryu to CharlotteDobreYouTube [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 20:32 overthinker_kitty New to US, opened an account with Chase. What are your thoughts on the following cards to build credit history?

Chase Freedom Unlimited & Flex (no annual fee) look pretty similar in terms of cashback percentage.
I do travel a lot so Reserve seems good too. Preferred seems less pricey to start and with similar benefits (except 300$ annual credit).
Since I see all these options in my "Credit Card" section I am guessing I will get approved for it even if i am new?
What are your thoughts? My initial expenses are likely related to just groceries, restaurants and Uber.
My target is to build a credit history so that I can apply for a Bilt Mastercard.
Since I have a canadian credit history i can apply for an Amex card too..
submitted by overthinker_kitty to Chase [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 20:32 theonewhoistheone00 what are my chances (super nervous... pls help)

hey guys! I'm a current junior who has been striving to get into a bs/md program for the past few years. I'm really nervous because I feel like others have so much more competitive things due to science competition stuff which I never participated in due to family issues. I would love for advice on things to do this last summer to buff up my application. I'd also like to know if I'm even competitive to apply. thanks yall <3
(also this is a throwaway account...)

Demographics: female, competitive public school (class of maybe 700-800 students), Texas resident
ACT/SAT/SAT II: 1480 at the moment but trying for a 1520+ in august
UW/W GPA and Rank: UW: Around a 98.4; W: 109.2; no rank right now, but I'd estimate maybe top 2%
Coursework: AP Courses: Human Geo (5), Bio (5)
-Current: Chem, Physics 1, Art, US History, Calc BC, Gov, Econ, English Lang
-Future: English Lit, Physics C, Stats, Psych, Enviro Sci.
Awards:
- an art international award
- a medical community service award (state level; 200 hours+)
- silver key scholastic art award
- 5 gold medals for art (regional)
- i got awarded a $10,000 scholarship, but should I include that in my resume? (community service based)
- A district level volunteer certificate of 125 hours+ (gold level) & another one for 75 hrs+ (silver)
- top 10 in a competition for anatomy and physiology (state)
Extracurriculars: not in a particular order
- 2 summers of researching at a biomedical research lab that is connected to a very good medical school in Texas. Might not publish anything, but I got a lot of data to do poster presentations later on this year
- founder of a non-profit organization that posts videos online helping patients with a certain something (don't wanna reveal much info, sorry!). also interacting with these patients to help with exercises, etc.
- got selected into an internship that was pretty competitive in my city. It's just a bunch of medical stuff for 3 years.
- Shadowing/medical volunteering for over 200 hours; helped out family practice physicians with whatever they needed, but also shadowed at the same time. Also got to shadow surgeons for a bit too.
- internship at a consulting company (around 100 hours); I honestly talked with the CEO a lot because it's a smaller company, so I might be able to get a letter of rec...
- a small program where I just did mock surgeries on fake stuff haha
- dance for like 7 years (noncompetitive but really dedicated to it); performed at various places
- hospital volunteering for 4 months (12 hrs/week); just normal hospital volunteering stuff
- tutoring for small kids for like 3 months-ish (4 hrs/week); not much to say about this, but it was pretty fun
- president of 2 clubs that are medical related: care cards, item-donations, etc (no $$ raised though)
- volunteered at a bunch of health fair camps (have really cool experiences.. totally recommend!)
- NHS (volunteering at elementary schools) & Science NHS (no volunteering.. just fun science events)
- part of student council too for 2 years (historian)

I would totally appreciate it if I could get feedback over what else I should do in my last summer. BS/MD programs have literally been my dream for such a long time, but I'm so nervous to apply in the coming months. Any advice and feedback is greatly appreciated!
submitted by theonewhoistheone00 to bsmd [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 20:31 EffectiveAttitude858 Cheating Story Ahead

Buckle up, folks, this is going to be a long one.
And I’m not going to use fake names because fuck the participants. They don’t deserve anonymity. If they or their friends read this, it will be obvious who I’m talking about. First, the cast of characters:
Me (32M) – Middle manager in a large Fortune 25 company. Fairly career oriented now, got my party days out of my system when I was younger.
Alison (31F) – my GF of 8 years, living together the last 4. She is an office manager for a large veterinary practice. Also, my soulmate, best friend, teammate, partner in crime and future wife (so I thought).
Leslie (31F) – Alison’s lifelong friend sine the 2nd grade. These girls are inseparable and do and share everything together. Dance classes when they were young, HS prom and homecoming, Alison was Leslie’s MOH. Sorority sisters in college. More like sisters than friends. Leslie is a PA.
Vikki (31F) – Great friends with Alison and Leslie. Another sorority sister from college. Not as close as the other two, but nobody really is. But she is a constant companion to both Alison and Leslie. Vikki is an accountant for one of the big accounting firms.
Brett (30M) – Leslie’s recent husband after they dated for about 5 years. Decent enough guy but I wouldn’t call him a great friend. More like a very good acquaintance. Brett works for a large plumbing/HVAC company that does sales and installation for primarily large industrial and commercial systems. A bit of a party boy who doesn’t necessarily take his career all that seriously and a bit immature IMO.
Jacob (29M) – Vikki’s LT boyfriend. They have been dating for about 4 years and living together for 1. Again, a nice enough fellow but more similar to Brett in personality than me. Jacob is a landman who contracts out to oil and gas companies. TBH, I not really sure what he does. I just know he travels a lot and makes pretty good money.
Now the background. Alison and I met in college. She was everything I could ever want in a partner. Gorgeous, smart, funny, extrovert, responsible. We didn’t start dating until we both graduated and found we would be working in the same city. We made it official fairly quickly. I purchased a house (in my name only) 4 years into our relationship and moved in together. We had a great relationship. Great communication. Fantastic sex. We started making made good money together and most recently with my salary plus bonus plus her salary we clear $350k per year so we are very comfortable financially. Since it was my house, and I made a lot more money, I paid the mortgage and most of the bills and I had no problem with that. I even paid off her student loans and her car note. She saved most of her money and built up quite a healthy 401K, which I was fine with. Hell, we were going to be married soon, so it was a moot point (or so I thought).
During our relationship, we hung out with Leslie & Brett and Vikki & Jacob quite often. Dinners, bowling, poolhalls, movie nights, backyard barbeques, skiing, lake getaways, etc. Early on we went clubbing quite a bit, but Alison and I grew tired of that scene so we don’t do that very much at all now. The other two couples still club and party quite a bit. Like I said, I loved hanging out with Leslie and Vikki, and the guys were OK, but I never really got close with either of them. They were very good friends with each other, though. But we were all friendly enough and got along great.
Now on to the good stuff. Since we often do stuff as three couples, I was fine with the girls planning a 10-day trip to Cancun for the six of us. We were going to stay in a really nice high-end adults-only resort. Alison and I were really looking forward to the trip as we could both use the downtime, relaxation and alone time. Unbeknownst to Alison, I was also planning to propose to her on this trip and I had a ring waiting to give to her in Mexico.
The week before the trip, wouldn’t you know it we had a crisis at work. My company needed me to stay. As is the policy in my company, if you have pre-paid plans that need to be cancelled last minute for critical business reasons, the company will re-imburse you. So I got re-imbursed for my flight and resort fee. While I was disappointed I explained to Alison and she understood. Since she was REALLY looking forward to going and spending time with her friends, I encouraged to go by herself and have a great time. I didn’t tell her about the ring and figured I’d propose shortly after she returned. When the day came, I said goodbye and she took off for the 10 day trip.
While she was there, I got a few obligatory texts and pics saying how much she missed me and wished I was there. Here’s where the worm turns. On day 4 of the 10 day trip, I got a call from a VERY good friend of mine, David, saying he needed to talk to me. David is probably my closet friend and also works with Brett and they are fairly good friends. Anyway, while in Mexico I guess Brett called David to ask about some work stuff and the conversation eventually turned to how was the Cancun vacation going. Brett proceeded to tell David that the trip was fulfilling some of his wildest sexual fantasies, that the five of them were engaging in all sorts of sexual exploits including a group orgy. The dumb fuck (Brett) was stupid enough to document the activities and even sent some pic and videos to confirm his story, which David initially called bullshit. This is what David wanted to talk about.
This next part is difficult for me to type since I have to relive some of the worst emotional pain I have ever felt. I met David, and he got right into it, telling me exactly what was going on in Cancun with the 5 of them. Like David, I also called bullshit and thought he was fucking with me until he said he has some proof that might be hard for me to see. I got super serious really quick and my stomach flip flopped. He showed me his phone. While I won’t get into ALL the sordid details suffice it to say his story was confirmed and I was broken to my core. Among the stuff he showed me, there was several pictures of Alison getting spit roasted by Brett and Jacob, pics of her having anal sex while eating Leslie’s pussy and a short video of the three girls having a very enthusiastic lesbian threesome. I was… IDK, devastated seems to light a word to describe my emotions. The crazy thing is, we had talked about FFM threesomes before and she always refused saying she just wasn’t into girls. She also knows one of my deepest fantasies was to watch her make love to another woman. She always laughed and said that was NEVER going to happen.
I decided then and there (obviously) that we were done. I asked David to send the pics and vids to me in case I needed to confront her with the proof. Over the next few days, I packed as much of her shit that I could into a bunch of boxes and stacked them in the living room. I had a locksmith rekey the locks on four doors into the house. And then just sat back and waited for her to return.
After the trip, she was scheduled to come home late on a Monday night, landing like around 11 pm. Since it was late, she told me not to worry about picking her up, she would Uber home. I just sat in the living room with a bourbon and waited. About 12:30 am, I heard her key wiggling unsuccessfully in the lock. After several attempts she rang the doorbell. There is a window right next to the front door and I open that window a few inches. She asked WTF was going on and to let her in. I just said she was never stepping foot in MY house ever again, we were through and to get the fuck off my stoop. She was honestly dumbfounded. Yelling why am I doing this? I said if you don’t know you are a fucking idiot on top of being a whore and a liar. She got silent. She knew I knew. She started sobbing, begging me to let her in, saying let her explain, she just wants to talk, etc. etc. etc. I told her forget it, its not happening and she’s not coming in. Through her sobs, she asked me where was she supposed to go. I told her I left her keys in her car and told her go back and live with her fuckbuddies and I closed the window, blocked her number, turned on some music and sat down and just zoned out. About ten minutes later I saw her car back out of the driveway.
About 45 minutes after she left, I got a call from her older brother James who lives in the same city and is fairly close to Alison. James is a great guy, a good friend and someone who I respect and enjoy being around. He told me Alison showed up on his doorstep crying hysterically and saying she fucked up. James really didn’t get any of the details from Alison, but he let her in and told her should could stay as long as she needed (James is a prince). I told James, yes we broke up. No it wasn’t repairable and that I would tell him the story in detail some other time. When I said our relationship wasn’t repairable he immediately understood that to mean she cheated and said he was sorry. I also told James that there were about a dozen boxes filled with her shit that needed to be moved out of my house. He understood and said he would take care of it. True to his word, James and a friend showed up and took all the boxes. We chatted a bit, he said he didn’t need any details but understood and agreed that cheating is impossible to come back from.
Fast forward about three weeks. I haven’t seen or talked to Alison or any of her friends since the night she left. Who should I get a text from but none other than Leslie. She asked me to meet her to talk. I told her I wasn’t interested in anything she had to say. She begged and pleaded with me, said she just wanted to talk and she wasn’t going to try to change my mind. On the off chance that I could get some of the “why”, I agreed to meet her for coffee.
My conversation with Leslie was eye-opening to say the least. First, she told me how sorry she was and that what happened in Mexico was spontaneous and not planned. She said that the other couples had talked about swinging in the past, but had never done anything. Things just got out of hand and that Alison had implied that I would be OK with her participation. She proceeded to tell me Alison was not doing well. She quit her job because she just couldn’t drag herself out of bed, had lost a ton of weight (she didn’t have much to lose to begin with), isn’t taking care of herself or her hygiene very well and has rarely left the house. I took it all in with some indifference.
I basically told Leslie that those were Alison’s problems, not mine, and Alison would have to deal with it. I told Leslie I don’t necessarily hate Alison, but I just don’t care about her or what happens to her any longer. She may as well be a stranger living in another country at this point. Leslie simply could not comprehend my indifference. She begged me to talk to Alison, to let her explain and give her some closure. I told Leslie I wasn’t interested in any excuses, reasons, justifications, explanations, or anything else. I didn’t owe her closure and wasn’t particularly interested in helping her get over her guilt. But I did have some questions.
I asked if that was the first time Alison cheated on me and she sheepishly said “yes, with a guy.” WTH?! I asked her if she and Alison had had sex before and she lowered her eyes and said yes. Apparently, they have been enjoying each other’s pussies on the regular since high school. My jaw absolutely hit the floor. I was in a stupor. I told Leslie about my fantasies about Alison and Leslie already knew all about them. She had even encouraged Alison to invite her into a threesome with me, or just have sex with Alison while I watched. Leslie was turned on by the idea, but Alison refused. I can’t fathom why. I also found out that this was not the first time the girls (Alison, Leslie & Vikki) had engaged in a lesbian threesome. They had not done it often, but definitely not the first time. Again, my heart just fucking sunk. So these two fucking losers (Brett & Jacob) got to share MY fantasies with MY girlfriend. I thanked Leslie for the talk, but told her that solidified in my mind that I wanted nothing to do with Alison ever again and told her I would also be cutting off the other two couples for obvious reasons. Leslie left the conversation in tears. I sincerely felt nothing for Alison, and don’t care where she winds up. But, still, it felt like a fucking elephant was sitting on my chest.
So two questions Redditors. AMTA for refusing to speak to Alison. And how do I get back into dating. I’m not one for dating apps and Alison and I have been together for so long that I am out of the game.
If you’ve read this far, thanks!
submitted by EffectiveAttitude858 to AITAH [link] [comments]


2024.04.28 20:30 MC_147 🌸😌🫶I don’t care (no more) and I hope she’s (they’re) lonely for ever 😌🫶🌸

Hiiiiii >:3 ( so I WAS going to post this in AITAH … BUTT I couldn’t because of the number of “words”, and when I did I got my FIRST hate comment 😋✌️)
(These are all the people involved : D,J,me, K and MD) Also NOTE: I will be using the mic for most of this, because if I just type it out, I’ll forget most things I wanna say … so sorry if that sounds weird (also I’m lazy 💀) AND this is like a couple weeks old, so there are SMALL (SMAL) updates… 😅ENJOY 😭(👹spicy part😈)
Soo this is a dumb and stupid “fight” that is going on rn … it started on Monday today is Wednesday. So on Monday morning (breakfast in the classroom) D told us that she was she was FINALLY dropping J (by 2nd period they were best friends again🙄)so basically… J has done a lot of things like be rude, mean and disrespectful to D … me, K and MD (basically all of her friends told her to stop being friends with J as they’re just hurting each other and they’re not good friends YK 😭⁉️) …. anyways, I sat down with them to eat my breakfast, and K told me that D was finally dropping J and she confirmed this and I asked why (I understand why DUUUU 😅 but I wanted her version of the story😌) and she said that J had been disrespectful and she had enough… (I mean she has always been disrespectful and rude so I was just happy that they weren’t friends no more 😭) J came into the class, and she sat next to us but she wasn’t facing us like she was facing the wall which for me was kind of funny because it seemed like she was the one giving us the silent treatment 😭🤣⁉️ also because we have different specials (PE, art, Spanish ,music) I don’t know what happened but they were laughing and just being happy …. Me and K were confused about what was happening so we were talking about it (to each other) and we were just like oh well we’ve been trying to help her this whole time get away from J but she doesn’t listen so basically at the end of the day, we were just planning to tell D that we didn’t care about J anymore… (basically what I’m trying to say is that we’re friends with the D not J and J knows that… ) at recess when we wanted to ask her about what was going on with J 😭⁉️ she was like “I never asked for your help” and “OK!” That really made me mad like really really mad!!! because I have been friends with D for the whole year and I helped her through 3 friend break up(I won’t go into that, but basically the same thing happened that is happening right now she got mad at them. They got mad at her and they’re not friends no more)D has asked us to get her away from J multiple times saying “ help give me away from Her she’s so annoying” “ help she’s so rude This is this “ YK 💀 ALSO I have multiple texts of her, telling me and ranting to me about J sooo ….(we have 4 semesters every school year; every semester she would drop a different person … we are in our last semester and now she’s dropping us?!) anyways, we didn’t touch that subject until the last period of the day and K decided to tell her basically what I said at the beginning that when they came to J we weren’t gonna put our opinion anymore… (because he doesn’t listen 🤦‍♀️) soo (at the end of the day) … K hands were on the table, facing flat, and D tryed to reach for them to be like …Oh no I….. K pulled her hands back and was like don’t touch me(by the way, K is that type of person that if she disrespects her she doesn’t take that so ya ) D gave K a dirty look and turned around and to her desk D and J were sitting next to each other, and they started whispering each other. They clearly looked mad and upset… (by the way they’re sitting at the front of the class we’re saying a row behind them) i’m sitting next to K and I hear everything and I’m in shock 🫢 K clearly looks “offended” and kind of frustrated …. And I was just there shock like what just happened… ( by the way, the whole day were trying to talk to D as respectfully as we could and she was just being disrespectful when we brought up J ) I would understand this if she had an asked for her help multiple times!!!! Anyways the next day (Tuesday) we told MD about what happened and she told us that maybe we were being so harsh and mean to D … I understand where she’s coming from but at the same time it’s not like we’re forcing D to stop being friends with J we’re just giving her our opinion! ( which she asked for all the time🤦‍♀️) I started to explain to MD that D and J are just hurting each other by being friends…. She wouldn’t listen she was just being annoying, but whatever🙄 the whole day, we didn’t talk, but J did give us dirty looks ( which I was like what the heck🫠) 😭 (I’m sorry, but it’s true) she told Jay that’s why she liked her more than us because we were judgmental to her … girl we’re just being rude with you like I get it’s OK to be delusional sometimes but the way that she’s delusional all the time ⁉️ERMMM⁉️in another occasion she liked this one boy and he didn’t like her. He told her like 10 times he didn’t like her and when she found out he was dating a girl she started crying and saying I should’ve never liked him. I was so dumb like girl he told you more than 10 times he didn’t like you and you’re out here crying 🤦‍♀️⁉️(I did comfort for her though) so yeah, basically in the text, she was just saying how she was mad at us because we were fake and she was mad at us because she never asked us for our help … she said that she was mad at me because I was giving her dirty looks LIKE⁉️ WHAT… The funny thing is that K sits behind D and like every class so if I ever wanna talk to K or look at her, I have to turn back and sometimes I accidentally make i Contact with D and every time I would just slightly turn to look at K … D would quickly look away ( imagine you’re looking at somebody, and then they suddenly look at you and you quickly look away ya…) in the text D told J That if she catches “ do you know who staring again she’s going to tell her something because she doesn’t want problems” exact words 🤦‍♀️ K and me suspect it’s K…. But yeah, nobody likes J she only has like two friends…. Because everybody else dropped her because of what B she is 💀… anyways today we didn’t talk the whole day… but I kept catching D looking at me …. This is where N comes in (she hasn’t said anything by the way, she’s Jay’s other best friend) D HATES HER … but because she’s not talking to our group she’s “lonely” and because J wasn’t here today she was hanging out with N and Js boyfriend 💀 but yeah, funny thing, though is that supposedly she also has beef with J’s boyfriend💀🤣 so yeah, she was delayed the whole day except for recess … I felt so bad before we went to recess because I wanted to talk to her(we went to the library and she was sitting all alone) sometime later, though one of the girls that was at her table, asked her why she wasn’t hanging out with us… AN O M G 🤦‍♀️ girly says that is because we don’t like her WHAT … I told K and we were like what the flip😭 so yeah also I don’t know if I said this, but in the text between D and J they’re talking bad about us, but she (D) is saying that she’s sooo lonely… 😔 HAHAH ya… she’s talking bad about us and saying how she’s so lonely OK 🤦‍♀️⁉️ also she was like I’m not talking bad i’m just saying (something like that …) YA…. It has been a week since that has happened and Maddy didn’t even talk to us on Thursday we didn’t have school on Friday(Good Friday). Today is Sunday (Easter) and she did text me about a game we both like(project like about this one character she wanted to get or whatever) she just texted like nothing happened. I suspect it’s because even though her and. D have something in common. They don’t have everything in common.(like game and music preference (examples) she does a 360 and suddenly were her best friends again like what 😭🫣⁉️ yeah I told my whole group about “the situation” guess what everybody is on our side me and Ks they’re saying how D AND MD are taking it too far and exaggerated and other things but I won’t get into it so yeah it just proves that right but I just sad because I know gonna D He’s going to be tray empty any day now and she’s gonna come back crawling to us …. Sad but what can you do?… also if they want to start anything, I promise I’m gonna end it..… ( last thing K told me that before this whole fight started since her and D live in the same area, they used to go to each other’s houses and D told her that she scared of me funny, huh?) long story short they were still the assholes anyways is now lonely and they just barely go up to her at DNND basically only hang out at recess nothing else and is always lonely and she’s always looking at us making eye contact with us like look away.💀( J still wears a mask! And she does have curtain bangs, but you can still see her staring because of how tiny her pupils are 💀🤦‍♀️)
✨🫶But ya that’s alll HELP I’m sorry if I didn’t make sense I really tried. 😭 any ways thank you for reading 🫶✨ ✨👏#kill them with kindness 👏✨
“Update 1)” they haven’t talked 2 us BUTTT MD had made small talk.. (was where playing a competitive game against another class and (because she’s good and she was playing) she would talk to us … I would make small talk 2 tho BUTTT not like that DONT WORRY 🙏😭 but I would tell her it was her turn (YK … ) and I would SHORTLY respond like “yes” “no” “ya right” “ sure” like that’s nothing long … basically the whole time I was just acting like I didn’t care 😋✌️D and J looked mad tho which made me kind of happy 2 be real 😌 (I think they were mad because MD was talking to us and they wanted to stay petty) (ALSO I also believe they were mad because I was “unbothered”).. OHHH YAAA … karma is a 🏝️😋 (#jojo🫢😳) because they are all sooooo depressed (LITERALLY THO) MD Always sits by herself on her phone D to .. they only walk together, but barely talk.. at recess MD and D (SOMETIMES) sit together (at lunch and recess) but there usually on their phones/barely talk .. J and D hang out a lot to since there “BFFs” but I promise when I tell you that every time we come back from recess, D is always mad at J/ upset … Don’t get me wrong there “happy” … BUT when talk/laugh as soon as they stop talking(or looking at each other) their faces just drop and become so depressed… and lately the eye contact has become too much … K Sits behind D in like most of our classes so whenever I want to talk to her or tell her to look at her phone, I sometimes make contact with D (which OK whatever 🙄) but at this point, I just been looking around and then I just she her, J and MD INTENSELY staring (like 😳)💀 …. so ya that’s all 😚🫶 love yalll .. remember… ✨👏#kill them with kindness 👏✨
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2024.04.28 20:30 Trandromeda Trip Report: Golden Route during sakura season and a wedding in Tokyo

Recently got back from an incredible 19 days in Japan. I’m really feeling the post-Japan blues now, but writing about the trip and sharing what I learned feels like a nice way to honour the memories I made.
I (35M) travelled to Japan with my partner (41M) from Canada. We were there from March 26 to April 13 - these dates were “chosen” for us because we were attending a wedding in Tokyo. We got to wear hakamas, walk in the procession at Meiji Jingu, and observe a Shinto wedding ceremony first-hand.
We did the Golden Route + Kanazawa, however, many travelers have already written about this route so I’ll try to offer new stories to interested readers instead.

About us and high-level trip summary:

Detailed report:

Before the flight

There were a few things we did before the trip began to help us out:

Landing in Japan

A note about the trains and ticketing system

I loved taking the shinkansen, they were so comfortable and predictable. The ticketing system, however... that’s a different story entirely. I think everyone just has to go through it like a rite of passage. I also couldn’t get SmartEx to work, which would’ve saved us a lot of hassle.
Regarding the JR West pass, I learned that you can’t make online seat reservations with it after you pick up the physical pass. You must use a specific machine or visit a ticket desk. To use the machines, find the ones with the green head boards and then select the option that mentions using a ‘discount ticket’ or something like that. Insert your pass and choose the destination and train you want to take. You’ll then get your pass back along with the printed tickets. Fortunately, there’s usually an attendant there to help you out.
I will miss having bento on the train while watching the scenery pass by (and listening to Fujii Kaze, haha).

March 26 - 28: A gentle introduction to Japan.

Places: Asakusa, Akihabara, Ueno, Ginza, and Chiyoda
Hotel: Route-Inn Grand Tokyo Asakusabashi
We chose this area because it was budget-friendly and gave us easy access to all the places we planned on visiting. A lot of people recommend staying in Asakusa, but we found Asakusabashi to be even quieter and cheaper.
Highlights:
Notes:

March 29 - April 3: Unforgettable memories made over a weekend.

Places: Shinjuku, Shibuya, teamLab, Kawaguchiko, and the wedding
Hotel: Yuen Shinjuku
Atmospheric hotel. Situated on a quiet street in Shinjuku while remaining within walking distance to all the fun places. Onsen on the top floor with amazing city views.
Highlight: The wedding
Highlight: Nichome
Other highlights:
Notes:

April 3 - 7: Embracing the calm after Tokyo.

Places: Hakone, Osaka, Himeji
Hotels: Mount View Hakone and Onyado Nono Osaka Yodoyabashi
The hotel in Hakone was itself the highlight. This one was a bit higher up in the mountains, but still easily accessible by bus. Top-notch hospitality and amenities. Our Osaka hotel was also comfortable and had an onsen and was located in a convenient area - not in the thick of things, but close to the important metro lines.
Highlights:
Notes:

April 7 - 10: Sakura, temples, and museums.

Places: Nara, Kyoto, Hiroshima
Hotel: TUNESTAY Kyoto
A modern hotel that also feels like a hostel with its communal amenities and young vibe. Rest assured, the rooms are private and include your own bathroom. Minutes away from Kyoto Station and situated on the same street as the sightseeing buses.
Highlights:
Notes:

April 10 - 12: Winding down and enjoying small city life.

Places: Kanazawa, Shirakawa-go
Hotel: Hotel Kanazawa Zoushi
Our second favourite hotel of the trip. We had the warmest reception here, with complimentary tea and dango provided at check-in. The room was very comfortable, while the bathrooms were surprisingly spacious.
Highlights:
Notes:

April 12 - 13: One more outing in Tokyo’s most desirable neighbourhood.

Places: Kichijoji, departure
Hotel: Tokyu REI Kichijoji
Standard hotel with few frills, but great price and location. We chose it because it was a last minute decision to switch from Akihabara to Kichijoji for our last night.
Highlights:
Now that some time has passed since departing Japan, the emotions that swept over me in that country have left a deep mark. Like a reminder of what I’m chasing after in this life, Japan excited me, fulfilled me, and left me wanting more. I know that being Japanese in Japan is an entirely different experience, but I still yearn to experience even just a sliver of that life.
Thanks for reading and I hope you got something out of this trip report. If you’re interested in seeing some of the photos I took on this trip, I’ve shared them on my Instagram account, which is the same handle as my Reddit username.
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