Downgrading quotes
Harvard Law expert explains Supreme Court First Amendment case Murthy v. Missouri
2024.05.14 18:22 Ur_Anemone Harvard Law expert explains Supreme Court First Amendment case Murthy v. Missouri
| According to President Ronald Reagan, “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’” The attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana tend to agree, at least when it comes to federal government involvement in social media platforms’ content moderation policies… On March 18, the justices will hear oral arguments in a case, Murthy v. Missouri, in which the two states and several individuals claim that federal officials violated the First Amendment in their efforts to “help” social media companies combat mis- and disinformation about COVID-19 and other matters… This is one of several landmark social media cases the Court is hearing this term, including Lindke v. Freed and O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier, in which they will decide if and when government officials may block private citizens from commenting on their personal social media accounts… Former national security official and current Harvard Law lecturer, Timothy Edgar ’97, believes that both the states and the federal government have valid arguments, and argues that the justices should channel the spirit of that famous 18th century publisher and postmaster, Benjamin Franklin, who was a proponent of both neutrality and rational discourse… Timothy Edgar: Missouri among other states and individuals are arguing that the Biden administration’s involvement in trying to suppress COVID-19 misinformation, especially about vaccines, crossed the line from being public health education to being censorship, by proxy. They argue that the administration was making very aggressive, specific suggestions to those social media companies, either to remove or to downgrade certain kinds of posts, and that by doing that, they transformed the private decisions that those companies made — principally Facebook and Twitter, now X — into public decisions, and that would amount to censorship. The federal government says this was a voluntary, cooperative effort between social media and the government to combat misinformation and improve public health. They also argue that the government has long engaged in public health education and that even if the government expresses its views bluntly, it has a responsibility to express those views. The First Amendment and concerns about censorship, they say, don’t prevent the government from expressing an opinion about what information is or isn’t truthful when it comes to public health…” My opinion is that they’re both right and that we need to get some clarity from the courts about where that line is between engagement and public health… In his early days, Franklin was a printer in Philadelphia and a postmaster. When he was criticized by a number of the citizens of Philadelphia for publishing a controversial essay, Franklin wrote a famous response called “An Apology for Printers,” which is a defense of the idea that printers should be neutral. Here’s the quote: “Printers are educated in the Belief, that when Men differ in Opinion, both Sides ought equally to have the Advantage of being heard by the Publick; and that when Truth and Error have fair Play, the former is always an overmatch for the latter: Hence they chearfully serve all contending Writers that pay them well, without regarding on which side they are of the Question in Dispute.” Franklin was defending the idea that there’s a role for service providers — publishers, printers, platforms — to share information and arguing that, if we say that they must agree with everything that’s on their service, then we cut off debate. It is an argument grounded in an enlightenment faith in the idea of rational discourse. Of course, it doesn’t answer the question of whether we should print literally everything — which Franklin did not believe — or when and how platforms should moderate content. But it embodies a certain faith in the marketplace of ideas. Franklin is making two arguments in his essay. One is the enlightenment idea of rational debate: that the truth will win out. But it also has this very pragmatic point, which is that neutrality is good for business. Printers were natural monopolies in a way that social media platforms can be as well…to serve the public, you need a platform — a printing shop and now a digital platform — that maintains some level of neutrality in order to have a democratic system of government… When the government communicates with distributors of information, in that case, book publishers, if they do it in a way that makes those businesses feel like they have no choice but to comply, then those actions will be seen as government actions. And they will be seen as a form of censorship that is prohibited by the First Amendment unless there’s some legal basis for censorship… You can look at this example from Franklin’s life and see some of both sides of what the justices will be deciding in this case. The platform should be neutral. In general, they should aspire to further public debate and that, even when they think something they allow to remain posted to the platform is wrong, they should have some faith in rational discourse. But there is a line, and the platforms or the printers can draw that line where they choose... The government has a responsibility to inform the public and to engage with digital platforms. They may even criticize digital platforms if they feel that their moderation decisions are being driven by private profits at the expense of the public interest…The government can make rational arguments. What it cannot do is to invoke its power — even implicitly — in a way that makes platforms feel they have no good option but to do what the government says… The government has an important role and responsibility here to be engaging with private platforms, and not just on public health, but on issues of terrorism, and extremism and violence, on issues of taking down illegal content like child sexual abuse material. When there are foreign, state sponsored disinformation campaigns, the government is uniquely positioned to let the platforms know about them. So, they need to be involved with Facebook, X, Google, YouTube, all the big social media companies… …there’s a difference between X and Facebook and the New York Times. Platforms make content moderation decisions. The New York Times makes editorial decisions. Both are protected by the First Amendment, but they are different decisions, and different considerations apply when deciding when government pressure crosses the line. And this gets back to our discussion of Benjamin Franklin. In the social media space, content moderation may deprive a speaker of the practical ability to have access to digital public square... submitted by Ur_Anemone to afterAWDTSG [link] [comments] |
2024.05.14 18:15 verlusa Design project cost estimating process
Interior designers, what is your process for estimating a budget for a remodeling/new construction project? I find it an exercise in futility to design without price constraints because it results in countless revisions when the quotes come in and we need to value engineer the hell out of the design to fit into an unrealistic number. The furniture costs are easy to estimate. The challenge here is that we need a contractor to produce a detailed and accurate bid instead of setting low-ball allowances to figure how much we have to work with for design elements. Do you take the budget number the client gives you and produce some design documentation based on client’s requirements to send to contractors for bidding? Or do you produce an estimate before doing any design work based on a desired level of finishes/historic data/etc.? I can’t seem to strike a balance because there are so many variables, and it is very disappointing for a client to fall in love with a design and be told after the bids come in that they have to settle for a downgraded version due to budget constraints.
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2024.05.14 01:35 Lower_End3897 Car insurance claim advice
Background: Recently I got rear-ended by another vehicle and had to make an insurance claim from my provider. The other vehicle was a company car insured by QB. Panel beater says my car suffered structural damage in the rear and quoted over $9k for repair. Insurance company later says my car is a write-off at $8.5k (valued by McLarens) when the estimated value was $11k when paying premiums. (I actually received a document with that estimated value on the day of the accident as I happened to be changing my address).
Quick search on tradme finds my vehicle specs is worth about $8k on low, $9.5k mid and $11k high. Feels like I got stiffed by the insurance since my car has always been regularly serviced, has new brake pads and tires, and I am the only owner since import in NZ.
Is taking this insurance payout my only option now? Feels so unfair. Really puts me in a bad spot since the tradme options of the same type at $8k are pretty beat up cars and it seems like I am forced to downgrade even though I am not at fault for the accident.
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2024.05.13 14:38 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 13/05 including positioning analysis going into the week so you know how market makers are positioned for your daytrades
ANALYSIS
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
DATA LEDE:
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
MARKETS:
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
FX:
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
MAG 7:
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
OTHER COMPANIES:
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
OTHER NEWS:
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
submitted by
TearRepresentative56 to
Daytrading [link] [comments]
2024.05.13 14:35 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing from premarket 13/05
ANALYSIS
Will be posting more positioning analysis charts for various instruments on my subreddit
Tradingedge during the day. Please check back, as it will give you more indication on how markets are positioned.
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
DATA LEDE:
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
MARKETS:
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
FX:
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
MAG 7:
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
OTHER COMPANIES:
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
OTHER NEWS:
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
For more of my daily updates and reports, please join
Tradingedge submitted by
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2024.05.13 14:34 TearRepresentative56 I'm a full time trader and this is everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 13/05 going into a big week for inflation data.
- ANALYSIS
- With QQQ above 440 and SPX above 5200, vol structure is supportive.
- These are now key levels of support
- We probably see some choppiness, likely with upward pressure as positioning supportive. The choppiness will come from amrket makers tryingt o hedge their volatility surpression.
- Vix is at 13.37, likely to remain between 13 and 14.
- We see basically bullihs positioning on indices.
- However, skew on SPX and QQQ, whilst elevated (indicating bulishness) is pointing lower as traders start to hedge. Meanwhile, skew on VIX is supressed, pointing to lack of fear in market, but points higher. This is due to traders hedging for CPI and PPI.
- As such, traders hedge a bit,due to the data, but positioning overall bullish.
- Top options being bought are 5400 and QQQ 450. both are v much OTM but it shows traders positioning is bullish. Just with hedging for possible short term vol.
Will be posting more positioning analysis charts for various instruments on my subreddit
Tradingedge during the day. Please check back, as it will give you more indication on how markets are positioned.
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
DATA LEDE:
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
MARKETS:
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
FX:
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
MAG 7:
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
OTHER COMPANIES:
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
OTHER NEWS:
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
For more of my daily updates and reports, please join
Tradingedge submitted by
TearRepresentative56 to
u/TearRepresentative56 [link] [comments]
2024.05.13 14:33 TearRepresentative56 Everything I'm watching and analysing in premarket 13/05 including positioning analysis going into a big data week.
ANALYSIS
Positioning for Today:
- With QQQ above 440 and SPX above 5200, vol structure is supportive.
- These are now key levels of support
- We probably see some choppiness, likely with upward pressure as positioning supportive. The choppiness will come from amrket makers tryingt o hedge their volatility surpression.
- Vix is at 13.37, likely to remain between 13 and 14.
- We see basically bullihs positioning on indices.
- However, skew on SPX and QQQ, whilst elevated (indicating bulishness) is pointing lower as traders start to hedge. Meanwhile, skew on VIX is supressed, pointing to lack of fear in market, but points higher. This is due to traders hedging for CPI and PPI.
- As such, traders hedge a bit,due to the data, but positioning overall bullish.
- Top options being bought are 5400 and QQQ 450. both are v much OTM but it shows traders positioning is bullish. Just with hedging for possible short term vol.
Will be posting more positioning analysis charts for various instruments on my subreddit
Tradingedge during the day. Please check back, as it will give you more indication on how markets are positioned.
- What can we say about the market scenario right now, going into a very important CPI week?
- Liquidity is high in the market, and is showing very little signs of stress right now. Traders remain long the market, and are short on volatility. This is ensuring that pullbacks get bought as liquidity is high.
- Right now, we see very little cause for much concern. I had the question recently about some speculation from some X users saying they are seeing put gamma building in the option chain to suggest there are signs of a downturn coming. This is not the correct interpretation of the put gamma we see. This whole rally up, since November, and especially around the time of Israel Iran scenario, we have seen put gamma remain on the option chain because traders have been trying to call an eventual pullback. Trying to get ahead of it, thinking that the market is overextended. To be honest, yes, the market has had a crazy run. But these people trying to get ahead of the pullback, has just caused more squeeze higher as data and market moves haven’t followed. E.g. If CPI comes soft this week, all of this put gamma will have to be closed or will expire worthless, which means that it will fuel a more extreme push higher. This will probably move us to ATH soon. This is the type of scenario that has got us to near 5300 on SPX. So the put gamma is nothing o be looked into in terms of bearish signal.
- Skew for MAG7 stocks remains at ATH. Default Swaps remain very low. Right now we are not seeing positioning for a market ready for a sustained pullback, but in fact are showing signs of a market ready for new ATH.
- If we see a pullback from CPI coming hot, it likely will not last unless it is extremely hot. This is because Powell has already mentioned that there is basically no chance of another hike. Traders remain very short vol. If CPI comes hot, its probable we see a short term spike in VIX, and a jump in dollar, but then the VIX spike will get faded as traders sell into the volatility, which will trigger a buy the dip.
- Right now traders are hedging, but are not positioned for a sustained pullback. Skew is elevated but pointing downwards. This means traders are overall bullish but are seeing short term risks Skew on short term is pointing lower but on 3m points to new highs. Traders may see potential a short term dip from CPI, but for it to not disrupt the bullishness of the market beyond the ver immediate term as they suspect any dip will be bought.
- This hedging is particularly on IWM as it is more interest rate sensitive as we see skew point lower. Traders are lowering call options but this is normal ahead of key data. It is just hedging it is not sign of a change in positioning.
- 200 will probably be the supportive wall on IWM on pullback.
- Here we see the positioning for delta
- https://imgur.com/a/zXV6eL6
- We see a lot of put delta at 200 which will make it supportive, then again at 196 which will probs mark max low incase of v hot print.
- Traders are still v bullish in this market, as are institutions. They just hedge.
- A hot CPI will probably lead to a short term pullback, and I will suspect many people will overestimate the magnitude of this and will turn bearish. They will then get fucked again in the buy the dip just like last time. I will update you nearer the time, but this seems the scenario.
- If CPI comes in line, or soft, we probably rip to ATH, as this will fuel more rate cut sentiment.
- We will then have CPI soft, as well as jobs numbers softening.
- I think that the CPI numbers are actually less important right now. We are still yet to see the inflation trend necessary to give the Fed the confidence required to get to cuts. This will likely take many months to get to that point. SO a hot print doesnt change too much in that way, and a soft print still needs a lot more to follow to increase confidence beyond that.
- However, Powell also laid out the other path to rate cuts, which is that the job market will weaken.
- Right now, we are seeing many signs of a weaker job market, although it is not weak enough to be at recessionary levels. This is actually right now then in a. Sweet spot. May be weakening enough to push the Fed to still consider cuts, but not weak enough to be recessionary.
- If we look at the indeed wage growth numbers, Indeed being a private job listing site, we see wage growth over 2023 and into 2024 has continued to move lower. JOLTS is showing a direct Correlation with this. The Indeed data is leading JOLTS lower, so we should expect to see further weakening in the labour market.
- A look at NVDA positioning: just below the key level of 900.
- We are seeing positive gex across the board really, not much put gex. Gamma is building on 1000 again. Traders probably look for more upside here.
- Reaction to PPI probably be limited as traders await CPI. IF good, can see short term jump before faded intraday into CPI.
- Headline CPI and PPI should get benefit from the fact that oil prices are lower into May from start of April. Used cars should come light on CPI, and we still hope for the shelter prices to reflect real time rents that we see from Zillow data. I think its possible CPI can beat expectations.
DATA LEDE:
- China Inflation rate: comes 0.3% YOY vs expectations of 0.1%. Previous reading was 0.1%
- As such, China inflation rate was higher than expected. This is bullish for Chinese market as represents another step away from disinflation. 3rd month in a row, out of disinflation.
- MOM was 0.1% vs estimate of -0.1%
- Fed’s Jefferson speaks as well as Fed’s Mester
- Tomorrow is PPI, WEed
MARKETS:
- SPX - Trading at 5234. Is up 0.34% today, Closed friday at 5220. Looks like recovery of ATH at 5272 is on the horizon soon, if CPI can support.
- nasdaq: Trading at 18,222, up 0.5% in premarket. Strong resistance at around 18,340. That is more or less where ATH is. So again, will be targeting ATH.
- Dow: ATH is just shy of 40k. Right now, Dow is trading at 39,580. So ATH is target again. 9th green day in a row now.
- GER40: Flat around 18,750. Lack of any real negative catalyst nor fear in the market. Target still looks like 19k.
- UK100: Trading totally flat at 8430. Has squeezed significantly higher. Up 9% in the last month.
- HKG50: is higher by 1%, back above 19,135, due to the China CPI coming in ahead of expectations, confirming move away from Deflation, and also the fact that China will be embarking on more stimulus.
- CHINA50: Flat really, around 12,700.
- OIL - slightly higher as China might intensify efforts to stimulate economic growth with launch of ultra long sovereign bonds. Will be trying to target the 80 level For WTI if CPI can support.
- GOLD - Trading at 2350. Again will be targeting 2400 this week with CPI.
FX:
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase earlier in session, but since pared the gains.
- Dollar flat/moving slightly lower this morning ahead of PPI tomorrow. Trading at 105.1
- GBP moves higher. Positioning is bullish, as does EURO.
- EURUSD is trading just below 1.08. Is up 0.21% this morning.
- GBPUSD at 1.2547. Will be trying to get close to 100d MA this week, above 1.26
- USDJPy continues weakness, trading at 156 level now again.
MAG 7:
- AAPL - Jeffries believes Apple may launch aggressive iPhone promotional discounts during the 618 online shopping festival in China. Currently Pindudoduo is offering 21% discounts on iPhone, most on any platform. JD second with 16% discounts
- AAPL - Finanlising deal with openAI to use chatgpt AI features on iPhone!!!
- So they will be overhauling Siri and integrating advanced generative AI to enhance user experience
- TSLA - Shanghai Megapack plant has received a construction permit and construction will start in may. Will reach mass production in Q1 of next year.
- TSLA - launches a below market financing rate for Model Y EV purchases. Brought the rate down to 0.99% annual percentage. Quoted rate a week ago was 6.5%. They are trying to stimulate more sales of Model Y to clear inventory
- NVDA - Jefferies raises Nvda PT to 1,200 from 780. Said NVDA is their favourite in the AI basket.
- NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 1350 from 1050.
- NVDA - says they are embarking on a new era of supercomputing, as it announces that 9 new supercomputers globally are using NVDA Grace Hopper super chips, and that the company is accelerating quantum computing efforts
- GOOGL - Sam Altman says that openAI is not working on a search engine. Good for Googel.
- Nonetheless, Google is down in premarket on the Apple partnership with OpenAI. That makes android phones less attractive.
- MSFT - OpEnAI will announce ChatGPT product improvements today
OTHER COMPANIES:
- With BTC trading higher, Crypto stocks are seeing volume today, all higher. CSLK most up after strong earnings on Friday.
- Chinese stocks generally higher on China market higher on better than expected CPI and stimulus measures.
- ARM - developing its own AI chips with the first prototype expected by Spring 2025. Company plans to establish. Dedicated AI chip division, aiming for mass production in Fall 2025.
- INTC - Apollo is in exclusive talks to invest $11B+ in intel chip factory in Ireland.
- MCD - Friday news that they are seeking approval from franchisees to introduce a new $5 meal deal aimed at attracting more customers.
- SQSP - Squarespace going private at $44/shares cash
- GME - up 37% in response to meme posted on twitter by Roaring Kitty
- BABA - earnings tomorrow morning.
- PFE - Pfizer and Astra Zeneca commit nearly $1B to French expansion.
- Ford - Reduces battery orders, amid soaring EV losses, rethinking strategy.
- PENN - Bank of A securities downgrades to neutral from buy, Price target 17.50, due to EPSN bet losses.
- JNJ will exit Kenvue in debt-for-equity deal, a year after spin off.
- UBER, LYFT - Massachusetts takes Uber and Lyft to trial over status of gig workers
- TME up on earnings
- Solar stocks higher after US tariffs on China solar producers
- LAC earnings today
OTHER NEWS:
- BTC trading at 62,733. So is up 2.6% this morning.
- France secures major investments from US companies at Choose France summit. E.g. MSFT said to invest $4B in AI and datacenter, AMZN to invest $1.2B in AI capabilities and delivery services etc
- China will launch ultra long sovereign bonds to boost economy. Will issue first batch of ultra long special central bonds on Friday. Will sell trillions of yuan in bonds to stimulate economic growth amid challenges like housing crisis and weak consumer confidence.
- US administration will quadruple tariffs on China EVs and offer solar exclusions.
- US say that their technology protection policies are not up for negotiation in AI talks with China.
- US and China set up a meeting in Geneva to discuss perils of AI.
- Stifel argues that the next 500 points for the S&P will likely be down. They argue that core PCE remaining higher means interest rates will be pushed back.
- Meme stock is gaining popularity again, with GME rallying over 70%. Now Roaring kitty made first social media post in 3 years.
- South Korea announces a $7B support for Chip industry to boost global competitiveness
- FXPro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich says that Bitcoin could see a panic sell off if it closes under 60k level in the coming days.
- Sirens sound in Israel’s North region.
- US say there is still no credible plan to protect civilians inRafah
- BOJ reduces bond buying in latest operation, causing yen to increase. Purchases fewer bonds in this operation compared to previous one.
- UK PM Rishi Sunak warns that Britain faces its most dangerous years in history.
- Softbank’s Vision Fund posts its first annual gain in over 3 years, up $4.6B.
For more of my daily updates and reports, please join
Tradingedge submitted by
TearRepresentative56 to
TradingEdge [link] [comments]
2024.05.13 14:26 sonofabutch No game today, so let's remember a forgotten Yankee: Horace Clarke
"I played major league baseball for parts of 10 years, and I played in the magnificent city of New York, and as a child in St. Croix that was beyond dreams. Yes, I am a happy man." --
Horace Clarke The worst stretch of Yankee baseball since the Highlander days, the mid 60s to the mid 70s, is remembered by those who lived through it as
the Horace Clarke Era. Unfairly or not, the bespectacled switch-hitting middle infielder from the U.S. Virgin Islands came to symbolize all that was wrong with the Yankees in those sad years.
Horace Meredith Clarke grew up on the island of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. He was just the fifth player from the U.S. Virgin Islands to play in the majors, and the first Yankee. His father had grown up playing cricket, and because there were no youth baseball leagues on the island, young Horace played softball. He said he didn't see his first baseball game until around age 13, when he saw some U.S. Navy sailors playing.
“We were poor kids in St. Croix. We played on a field which was right on the ocean and had no fences. We couldn’t afford baseballs. So the coach made the lefthanded batters hit righthanded and the righthanded batters hit lefthanded. This was so they couldn’t hit the ball so far. It saved us from losing the baseballs in the ocean.”
Clarke was spotted by a Yankee scout in the Caribbean and assigned to the lowest run of the Yankee farm system -- the Kearney Yankees in Class D ball. Imagine being an 18-year-old kid from St. Croix in the Caribbean, and arriving in Kearney, Nebraska in the spring of 1958. The culture shock must have been overwhelming. Maybe not surprisingly, Clarke hit a disappointing .225/.322/.283 in 187 at-bats. He said the biggest adjustment wasn't the cold weather, but night games played under the lights, something he'd never done before.
The following year Horace was in the Florida State League, and he thrived in the warmer weather, hitting .293/.375/.366 in 571 at-bats. He also stole 34 bases that year. The year after that, he was back up north, playing for Fargo in the Northern League, and hit .307/.389/.369 in 537 at-bats. The following year was Amarillo in the Texas League, where he hit .300/.364/.429.
Then the next three years in the International League, where he hit .281/.345/.352 in 1,494 at-bats while playing shortstop and second base.
But despite Clarke's promise, he was blocked by Bobby Richardson. By the time Clarke had reached Triple-A at age 24 in 1963, the 27-year-old Richardson had already been a four-time All-Star, a two-time Gold Glove winner, and had won three World Series rings... plus the MVP for the 1960 World Series, the only time in baseball history a player for the losing team won the award!
But the Yankees knew Richardson was planning on retiring, so they kept Clarke waiting in the wings. He opened the year with the Toledo Mud Hens, then the Yankees' Triple-A team, and then after a month he finally got the call to the show.
Fifty-nine years ago today, on
May 13, 1965, Clarke was sent up to the plate in the 7th inning as a pinch hitter to make his major league debut in a game the Yankees were losing, 4-1, to the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park.
Clarke, facing Dave Morehead, beat out an infield single. It was a promising beginning. But, as if scripted to be symbolic of his career, Clarke's success was short-lived as the next batter bounced into a fielder's choice. Forced out at second base, Clarke watched the rest of the game from the dugout. The next day he'd get the start and go 0-for-4.
Hitting .250/.298/.269 at the end of June as a utility infielder, Clarke was sent back down to Toledo for two months to get more regular playing time. It helped. When he returned on
September 3 -- coincidentally, also against the Red Sox -- he went 3-for-5 with an RBI. Overall that month, Clarke hit .273/.298/.327, and for the season, .262/.298/.299 in 115 plate appearances. But the Yankees, the reigning A.L. champions for the past five seasons, finished a shocking 77-85, all the way in sixth place.
That off-season, Phil Linz --
the harmonica playing utility infielder -- was traded to the Phillies, opening up a roster spot for Clarke. Richardson, though only 31, had told the Yankees he would retire at the end of the 1966 season, and the Yankees wanted him to mentor Clarke as his successor.
Clarke started just seven games over the first half, but a series of injuries forced him into regular service. Over the second half, he played almost every day, hitting .276/.334/.404 in 300 plate appearances. He was mostly used at shortstop, where his defense wasn't great, but in 16 games at second base he looked good enough that the Yankees were confident he could be a regular there. Yankee fans were no doubt a little sad when Richardson officially announced to the press on August 31 that it was his last season, but at least we knew who would be playing second base the following year.
Indeed, second base was the least of the Yankees' problems. New York finished dead last at 70-89 in 1966, the team's worst performance since 1925, as injuries fell Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, Elston Howard, and Whitey Ford.
Entering 1967 as the starting second baseman, Clarke hit a solid .272/.321/.316 (94 OPS+) in 633 plate appearances while leading the league in fielding percentage, assists, and range factor as a second baseman. He also stole 21 bases in 25 tries, a second-best .840 SB%. His 3.7 bWAR that year was better than any season Richardson ever had -- his career high was 3.2 bWAR in 1962.
The following year, the Yankees finished 83-79 -- above .500 for the first time in four seasons -- but a whopping 34.5 games out. Clarke had one of the worst years of his career, hitting .230/.258/.254 (60 OPS+) as he played through injuries all year.
He rebounded in 1969 to .285/.339/.467 (101 OPS+), with 33 stolen bases. It was, statistically, the best season of his career (3.9 bWAR). But once again the Yankees were terrible -- 28.5 games out.
In 1970, Clarke again disappointed, hitting .251/.286/.309 (68 OPS+). The Yankees won 93 games that year, but it amounted to naught as the Orioles ran away with the pennant, going 108-54 to win it by 15 games. In fact, it was pretty much over by July, with the Yankees 7 games out at the All-Star break.
It was around this time that Yankee fans began focusing their frustration on Clarke. One New York sportswriter routinely referred to him as "Horrible Horace". Miscast as a leadoff man -- he had a career .308 OBP -- and criticized for "bailing out" on double plays, manager Ralph Houk years later offered a tepid defense of his second baseman:
“I know I got a lot of criticism for playing Horace Clarke as much as I did, but he was a lot better ballplayer than anyone gave him credit for. He did a lot of things good but nothing great, and that was his problem. Besides, I didn’t have anyone else.”
The lack of a replacement was certainly an issue. In 1971, there was talk in
The Sporting News about a prospect named Fred Frazier being the heir apparent to Clarke at second base. That year, Frazier hit a disappointing .261/.316/.313 in Triple-A; the next year, .216/.302/.281. The year after that, he was in the Orioles organization. He never made it out of the minors.
In fact, Clarke was the only constant in the Yankee infield in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Yankees during the, ahem, Horace Clarke Era had holes everywhere, with a revolving door at first base, third base, and shortstop. For five years, from 1967 to 1971, Clarke was the Opening Day starter at second base; during that same stretch, there were five different third basemen, five different third basemen, and three different shortstops. Between 1967 and 1973, he started 1,017 games at second base, or 90% of all Yankee games.
But that, explained Yankees PR man Marty Appel, was kind of the problem. "Fans especially didn’t like the second baseman, the beleaguered Horace Clarke, whose major flaw seemed to be longevity. It wasn’t his fault that no one better came along, and he was a better player than the fans gave him credit for. But because he was out there, year after year, he came to stand for this disappointing run by the club."
"I always did my best. I always played as hard as I could. I never was concerned about how the fans reacted to me." -- Horace Clarke
The following year Clarke hit .250/.321/.318 in 696 plate appearances, but the Yankees again were out of it, finishing 82-80 in 1971.
Yankee fans had been miserable since 1965, but frustration with the team in general -- and Clarke in particular -- reached a boiling point in 1972. It had been seven years since the Yankees had been in the post-season, and 1972 was the first year the Yankees had the playoffs within our grasp since winning the pennant in 1964. (The "closest and latest" the Yankees had been since the 1965 season was 9 games out of 1st place on September 8, 1970.)
On September 12, 1972, the Yankees were a half-game out of 1st place at 74-64, with 17 games left to go in the season. The Red Sox were in 1st at 73-62, the Orioles tied with New York at 74-64, and the Tigers a half-game behind at 73-64. Over the rest of the season, the Yankees went a heartbreaking 5-12, while the Tigers won 13 out of 19 to win the A.L. East.
There was plenty of blame to go around for that collapse, but Yankee fans were particularly irate at Clarke, who hit .225/.267/.296 during those final 17 games.
To his credit, Clarke never complained about the boos from fans or the criticism in the press. As quoted by Dick Young in the
New York Daily News in 1972:
"Sure, I would feel bad when I saw in the papers that, 'the Yankees can never win the pennant with that guy at second base.' But why get mad. I figure that's his opinion, and he's entitled to it. I must have been able to do something. Don't tell me a ballplayer can fool a manager for seven years."
Years later, Thurman Munson said his adversarial relationship with the media was based on how Horace Clarke was treated.
In 1973, the 34-year-old Clarke hit .263/.317/.308 (80 OPS+), his defense was no longer among the league leaders, and the Yankees were once again double-digit games behind by Labor Day.
It was finally time to move on. That off season, the Yankees acquired 23-year-old utility infielder Jim Mason from the Texas Rangers and installed him as the starting shortstop for the upcoming 1974 season; Gene Michael, the Yankees' on-again, off-again shortstop since 1968, was moved to second base; and Clarke to the bench. It wasn't exactly an earth-shattering move -- Mason was coming off a season in which he hit .206/.273/.290, and Michael .225/.270/.278. If anything, the two represented a substantial downgrade from Clarke's numbers. (By bWAR the previous season, Clarke was still the best option of the three, 0.6 compared to Mason's -0.7 and Michael's -0.9.)
After hitting .234/.294/.255 in 53 plate appearances as a pinch hitter and spot starter, on May 31, 1974, the Yankees finally ended the Horace Clarke Era by selling his contract to the San Diego Padres along with minor league pitcher Lowell Palmer for $25,000. At the time of the deal, Clarke was
still the Yankees' best option at second base as Mason was hitting .214/.287/.307 and Michael a putrid .134/.224/.179!
Six weeks later, the Yankees tried to address their second base problem again by acquiring former All-Star Sandy Alomar from the Angels. Alomar, who fathered major leaguers Sandy Jr. and Roberto, played for the Yankees for the next two and a half seasons, hitting .248/.287/.302... again, worse than Horace's career average of .256/.308/.313.
And yet getting rid of Horace Clarke immediately turned around the Yankees' fortunes. With Horace, the Yankees were 23-27, the worst record in the American League; without him, a second-best 66-46. New York finished 89-73, just two games behind the Baltimore Orioles.
The Yankees finally found a solution to the second base problem on December 11, 1975, trading
previously forgotten Yankee Doc Medich to the Pirates for Dock Ellis, Ken Brett, and a 20-year-old prospect named Willie Randolph.
Meanwhile, Clarke went to San Diego and hit .189/.255/.200 in 99 plate appearances. He was released at the end of the season and retired. He was a frequent attendee at Yankee Old Timers' Games, and promoted baseball in the U.S. Virgin Islands. He died at age 81 on August 5, 2020, from complications due to Alzheimer's disease.
The Clarke Side - Horace's nickname was "Hoss". Yankee play-by-play man Bill White loved to draw out the "s" sound.
- Clarke had a reputation of being timid on double plays -- the team's pitchers thought he was apt to hold onto the ball and hop aside rather than try to get off a throw if it meant getting barreled over by the runner. (And in those days, runners came in hard -- just ask Willie Randolph!) Yankee pitchers complained to the press about it, and fans started watching for such plays. Any time the 175-pound Clarke didn't complete a double play, the boo birds came out. To be fair, despite his reputation as being afraid of contact, Clarke led the league in double plays turned as a second baseman in 1969 and again in 1971, and finished in the top five every year he was a regular.
- Clarke was the last Yankee to live within walking distance of Yankee Stadium, at the Grand Concourse Hotel. His commute to work was a three-block walk... which could be a problem sometimes. Sportswriter Dick Young reported Clarke had an awkward moment when a fan, "this kid, maybe 11 or 12," walked up and asked: "Hey Hoss, how come you can't make the double play?" Clarke replied: "Well, we can't all be stars. I guess I'm just a lousy ballplayer."
- Clarke had an unusual batting stance, a throwback to the Deadball Era. He stood with his legs far apart and he choked up high on the bat. Not surprisingly, he had just 27 home runs in 5,243 career plate appearances... but apparently all of them were of the over-the-fence variety.
- The first of those 27 home runs was a grand slam! It was off Floyd Weaver of the Cleveland Indians on September 21, 1965. The two-out grand slam in the 4th inning helped power the Yankees to a 9-4 win.
- And Clarke's second career home run? Another grand slam! It came on July 16, 1966. Clarke came up with the bases loaded and one out in the top of the 10th of a 5-5 game. Clarke crushed Jack Aker's offering to deep right to clear the bases and give the Yankees a 9-5 lead; Pedro Ramos pitched a perfect 9th to preserve the victory. Whitey Ford, who had entered the game in the 9th inning in relief, got the win. Clarke's first and second home runs were the only grand slams of his career!
- Aker was later Clarke's teammate with the Yankees from 1969 to 1972, and the sinkerballing reliever was one of the pitchers who criticized Horace about bailing out on double plays.
- Long before John Olerud made it cool, Horace sometimes wore a batting helmet while playing the field. He never explained why; some speculated it was because he'd once been hit in the head by a thrown ball.
- Clarke said he grew up listening to Yankee games on the radio, and Phil Rizzuto -- a similarly undersized infielder -- was his favorite player. Horace was 11 years old when the Scooter won the A.L. MVP in 1950.
- Mickey Mantle, his knees shot, moved to first base for the final two years of his career. Clarke, the regular second baseman both of those seasons, said that Mantle told him to get every ball he could. Horace led the league in range factor as a second baseman both of those seasons.
- The Sporting News reported on March 14, 1970, that Clarke had a "novel twist" during salary negotiations for the upcoming 1970 season. He told the Yankees he'd take less money in salary if they helped him secure a $1 million loan for a construction project in the Virgin Islands. Sportswriter Dick Young speculated: "It's a very simple gimmick. First you get the Yankees to lend you $1 million for an investment. You bank it at seven percent. That brings in $70,000 a year. Then you negotiate your contract with the independent feeling that you don't have to play baseball for a living." Clarke and the Yankees eventually agreed on a more conventional contract at $32,000 -- and no loan.
- Check out Horace Clarke's leadoff single on Opening Day in 1970, called by Phil Rizzuto! #23 playing first base for the Yankees is not Don Mattingly, but previously forgotten Yankee John Ellis.
- Clarke set the major league career record -- since tied by Joe Mauer -- of most no-hitters broken up in the 9th inning. Both players did it three times in their career... but Clarke did it three times in the same season! He had 9th inning singles to break up no-no's by Kansas City's Jim Rooker on June 4, 1970, Boston's Sonny Siebert on June 19, 1970, and Detroit's Joe Niekro on July 2, 1970. No other hitter has broken up more than two no-hitters in the 9th inning in his career, according to the book Baseball's No-Hit Wonders by Dirk Lammers, but Clarke amazingly did it three times in 24 games spread over 28 days. Mauer's 9th inning heartbreakers came over a six-year stretch.
- Clarke went 5-for-6 with an RBI in the second game of a doubleheader on April 19, 1970 -- and had 11 other games where he had four hits. In terms of fantasy scoring, his best day was either May 21, 1969, when he went 4-for-6 with three runs scored and three stolen bases, or July 22, 1971, when he was 4-for-5 with three runs scored and three RBIs.
- Clarke was involved in one of the most surreal moments of baseball history on the final day of the 1971 season. The Yankees were playing the Washington Senators -- not the original Senators, who had moved to Minnesota to become the Twins in 1961, but the expansion team founded that same year to replace them. Rangers owner Bob Short, who had bought the team three years earlier, announced he was moving the team to Arlington, Texas, to become the Rangers. (Coincidentally, in 1957, Short had bought the Minneapolis Lakers and, three years later, moved them to Los Angeles.) The final home game of the Senators at RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., was on September 30, 1971 against the Yankees. The game was tied, 5-5, but the soon-to-be Rangers scored a pair in the bottom of the 8th to take a 7-5 lead. In the top of the 9th, Felipe Alou and Bobby Murcer grounded out to bring up Horace Clarke. Before he could get to the plate, however, a fan ran onto the field and pulled up first base, prompting hundreds more fans to run onto the field in search of their own souvenirs. Clarke and the Senators ran off the field and the umpires called it a forfeit in favor of the Yankees.
- Horace wore #20 all 10 seasons he was with the Yankees. It was never a particularly popular number before him, as the only player who wore it more than a few seasons was Tiny Bonham (1940-1946). Bucky Dent wore #20 from 1977 to 1982, and previously forgotten Yankee Bobby Meacham from 1983 to 1988. Another previously forgotten Yankee, Mike Stanley, wore it from 1992 to 1995, then Jorge Posada had it until Stanley returned in 1997 and reclaimed it. After Stanley left the Yankees, he asked Posada to take it back, saying that number should belong to a catcher. And now it always will, as it was retired for Posada in 2015.
- His obituary in The New York Times noted that among major leaguers from the Virgin Islands -- "a relatively small roster" -- Clarke still holds the records for games played, hits, runs, RBIs, and stolen bases.
- After he retired, Clarke helped promote youth baseball in the U.S. Virgin Islands. One of the players he mentored was Jerry Browne, who played 10 years in the majors between 1986 and 1995 with the Rangers, Indians, A's, and Marlins. In his SABR biography, Browne credits Clarke with teaching him baseball fundamentals.
- According to the book Where Have All Our Yankees Gone? by Brian Jensen, Clarke played a uniquely Caribbean instrument called "the vibes." "The vibes is like a xylophone, marimba-related type sound. It's a keyboard-type related instrument." Clarke said he played the instrument during his Yankee days, but -- unlike Bernie Williams, who frequently strummed on his guitar in the clubhouse -- only during the off-season. "When I was with the Yankees, ya know, the instrument that I had, the vibes, I was doing it, ya know, but never in the clubhouse, though. Once you are in the clubhouse, it is all work, ya know. That was never so much allowed. I had the instrument all the years that I was a Yankee but I was involved with baseball. That was my full time and I didn't have full time to play music but, ya know, in the off-season I would have a vibe and try to learn a song by hearing from a tape or a record and that's what it was." After retiring, Clarke played the instrument with a local band called Out of Nowhere.
- Of the 15 major leaguers to have been born in the U.S. Virgin Islands, the only other Yankee was Elrod Hendricks, a backup catcher for the Bombers from 1976 to 1977. Jabari Blash, born in St. Thomas, gets an honorable mention for the three months he spent as a Yankee during the 2017-2018 off-season. Blash was acquired from the Padres for Chase Headley on December 12, then traded to the Angels for a PTBNL or cash considerations. I guess we got the cash, because apparently no player was ever named.
- There's a Horace Clarke High School in Jamaica, but it's not named after the Yankee. It's named after the Horace Clarke who was a member of parliament in Jamaica from 1972 to 2002.
- Also not him: Horace Clarke, a teenager shot and seriously wounded by a Blackfeet Indian named Owl Child on August 17, 1869. Clarke's father, Malcolm, was killed in the same attack, which was purportedly revenge for Malcolm Clarke having attacked him two years earlier... which Malcolm claimed he'd done because Owl Child had stolen horses from him... which Owl Child said he'd done in revenge for yet an earlier dispute. The pursuit of Owl Child resulted in a massacre of at least 170 people, mostly elderly men, women, and children. As for Owl Child, he escaped to Canada and was never seen again.
"I remember the first game I played in Yankee Stadium in 1965. There were more than 40,000 people in the stands. I had just come from my country where there are 30,000 people in the entire country. That was some adjustment." -- Horace Clarke
Overall, Horace Clarke hit .257/.309/.315 in 5,144 plate appearances as a Yankee. His numbers aren't quite as bad as they appear, as he played during one of the lowest offense eras since deadball... an 84 OPS+. That ranks him ahead of fondly-remembered Yankees like Shelley Duncan (81 OPS+), Rick Cerone (80 OPS+), Miguel Cairo (80 OPS+), Bucky Dent (72 OPS+), and... Bobby Richardson (77 OPS+). And while many complained about his defense, his defensive metrics -- such as we have for his era -- indicate he was at least an average defender. He led the league in range factor three times, in fielding percentage once, in assists six times, and in double plays twice.
People tend to think about Clarke -- if they think about him at all -- as either a terrible player, representative of the teams he played on, or a good player who was wasted on bad teams. The truth is somewhere in the middle. As sportswriter Maury Allen said, he was "an average big-leaguer on below-average Yankee teams."
And in fact, Clarke's 16.0 career bWAR as a Yankee is
twice as much value as the player he replaced, Bobby Richardson (8.0 bWAR). But Richardson was a fan favorite, while Clarke was scorned. But of course... Richardson won three rings. And Yankee fans love a winner!
"New York is New York. You don’t win, you’re going to hear about it. I was in the middle." -- Horace Clarke
Had Clarke come along a few years earlier and been part of the early 1960s dynasty, he might be remembered fondly as a scrappy infielder, a Tony Kubek or a Bucky Dent or a Scott Brosius -- a good but not great player who had some memorable moments.
Instead, Horace Clarke defines an era of futility.
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2024.05.13 05:21 S1DC I accidentally told the Asurion rep my S22 Ultra was a 1tb instead of a 512gb
---original post below, solution farther below in the UPDATE section---
I put in a claim for my broken S22 Ultra and told the rep it was a 1tb model. They couldn't find a replacement so they cut me a check for the value of the phone (~$1500). Well it turns out my phone is actually a 512gb, but I couldn't check that at the time since the phone is broken so I didn't find out till I checked the model on my carrier's website.
So what do I do? Call Asurion again and tell them the model is wrong, hope they cancel the first check and send another one? [spoiler: when I called them back, they did cancel the check and said to submit another claim for the right phone, see details below] Or is it going to end up being some huge pain in the ass problem. I don't know why they didn't already know what kind of phone I had insured, seems a little stupid to ask me what it is when we insured a specific phone.
Such a stupid mistake. Honestly thought I had the 1tb. Since they didn't send me a physical phone replacement I'm hoping its not a huge problem to fix.
----UPDATE----
Ok, so, to future person who finds this during a google search, here is how we dealt with it.
We called them back, explained that we mis-quoted the size of the phone (no, I don't know why they asked me for it rather than knowing automatically. Yes, I realize typically they would know via the IMEI. Why didn't they? I have no idea. I don't call Asurion every day. This was my first time). They said not to worry about the mistake, they would just cancel the check which would take 36 hours, and then we could re-submit the claim. During the original claim process, the fact that the phone was 1tb is why the rep couldn't find a suitable replacement. He said they won't downgrade the phone during a replacement, and I guess the Galaxy Ultra series of phones doesn't have any direct like-for-like options from competitors. That's when he offered the check instead so I could go and find a replacement myself. Did I expect them to do that? Hell no. I thought they were gonna pay for a repair (bad charging port) not replace the entire phone.
To those saying "no way they would send you $1500 for an S22 Ultra", its not a matter of if they would, they did send me the check. Did I expect that to be what they would do when I called? No. Seemed over-the-top to me during the call. But that's how it went down. Obviously I was pretty happy.
To those saying "they already know what phone you have via the IMEI", they didn't. I don't know why. They asked from the beginning what phone it was, clarified multiple times because finding a 1tb phone was proving difficult for the rep to do at the time. My phone was dead so, I couldn't check to verify, and I didn't realize I made the mistake until I checked my Verizon account.
This phone was not bought from Verizon, I brought it from another ATT account. I suspect that is the reason they don't have the exact phone on file. Impossible, you say? Well tell that to the Asurion rep, I have no idea why they didn't know, or why they asked me.
Also, side note:
lol why the fuck do people downvote this kind of post? Like, are you mad I had this problem? Don't believe me and think my hobby is to write Asurion fanfic? jesus christ. Not that I give a shit about upvotes on a post about an insurance claim, the only reason I came here was to see if anyone else had had a similar experience. Apparently this is not common. Sorry if that bothers you I guess.
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2024.05.11 22:18 SomeKindOfAGamer Why are people so hostile towards Aabria?
What the title says. Personally, I really like her style and the games she runs, even if Brennan is my personal favorite dm. I recently saw some posts that were just...not even criticisms of her play style, but straight-up attacks on her and her character. Saying she was an abuser, a toxic person, etc etc because of the way she acted at the table. I don't know much about critical role, but apparently she didn't do well dm-ing one of those campaigns, and people are holding it against her. Thankfully all the blatantly racist comments were getting downvoted, but it's still alarming to see the amount of frothing-at-the-mouth hate that some people in the dnd community have for her. Isn't dnd inherently about communal storytelling? If the people at the table were having fun, does it really matter what the fans think? Don't quote me on that, though.
Maybe it's fan entitlement. People who like Brennan or Matt Mercer best (for understandable reasons) upset that he's been "downgraded" (not my thoughts) to player. Maybe it's people not liking her play style, though I think it's really cool and unique. Maybe it's the fact that she's a more adversarial dm than Brennan is, holding the players accountable for their actions/the things they say. Or maybe people just want to be mean on the internet. Anyway, what do you think?
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2024.05.11 14:24 scsresearch SCS lower back pain with or without leg pain
I will declare SCS review publications with their built-in bias percentage,
i.e., the number of built-in biased publications divided by the total
publications reviewed. The industry is the SCS manufacturers. The built-in
bias is due to industry-funded studies, industry-contracted researchers,
researchers with stock in the industry, etc.
https://twitter.com/isSCS4me/status/1738237589180584165 The information below is for failed back surgery syndrome(FBSS) patients,
patients without previous back surgery history but with back pain and
of general value for those patients researching SCS.
https://bestpractice.bmj.com/info/us/toolkit/learn-ebm/what-is-grade/ "GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations)
is a transparent framework for developing and presenting summaries of evidence
and provides a systematic approach for making clinical practice recommendations.
[1-3] It is the most widely adopted tool for grading the quality of evidence and
for making recommendations with over 100 organizations worldwide officially
endorsing GRADE."
https://academic.oup.com/painmedicine/article/21/11/2699/5848733 It is a literature review of several frequencies, low-frequency, burst, and
high-frequency SCS for lower back pain(LBP) with or without leg pain.
"Conclusions
According to GRADE, there is low-quality evidence that high-frequency SCS
compared with low-frequency SCS is effective in patients with axial LBP with
concomitant leg pain. There is very low-quality evidence for low-frequency SCS
for the treatment of axial LBP in patients with concomitant leg pain. There is
insufficient evidence addressing the effectiveness of burst SCS to apply a
GRADE rating."
The following quoted paragraph describes the severe deficiencies of the current
SCS research, with very few exceptions, few not-industry-sponsored studies.
"This review highlights the need for future investigator-driven, non-
industry-sponsored studies with long-term assessment. All except
six studies meeting inclusion criteria [28, 30, 41, 43–45] were
supported by industry funding. Only two studies reviewed [30, 43]
were performed by authors without industry-related disclosures, one
of which was missing a critical amount of data and another which
investigated a modified paddle implant. In general, industry-
sponsored studies report higher rates of positive outcomes [53, 54],
positive outcomes without statistical justification [55], lower rates of
adverse effects [56], and are published faster and more frequently
than trials without industry funding [57–59]. Furthermore,
publication bias has been shown to disproportionately affect evidence
that comes from small RCTs and cohort studies [60, 61], such as the
evidence base reviewed herein. Within the GRADE framework, Guyat
et al. suggests downgrading the evidence based on risk of publication
bias when “most studies are industry sponsored or likely to be
industry sponsored (or if the investigators share another conflict of
interest)” [47]. The results of this review certainly fall well within
this description. This does not, however, negate the findings of these
trials, but simply indicates the need for more investigator-driven
studies, especially since cost-utility analyses are now being
published based largely upon results from industry-funded work
[34]. De Andres et al. have provided an excellent example of an
independently funded RCT comparing traditional low-frequency with
10-kHz SCS, which demonstrated similar improvements between the
two groups at six months with regard to global pain (axial pain not
reported separately), function, mental health, and sleep quality [62]."
The built-in bias is (15/17) 88%.
Research supporting SCS for LBP with or without leg pain is weak.
SCS MDs recommending SCS for LBP with or without leg pain are on a slippery
slope. The SCS manufacturer is not a patient ally; they exist to make
a profit. The industry-contracted researchers should convert their SCS
manufacturer contracts into full-time employment; they do not represent the
best interests of SCS patients.
I recommend reading the publication.
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2024.05.10 21:49 Raynor11111 Advice: ~$8,000 Negative Equity on a Beater Pickup (Texas)
I don't know what to do. I've got a 2013 Ram 1500 Tradesman (4.7L V8 Flex Fuel) that I still owe about $10,000 on, but it needs dramatic repair to become inspect-able again. The Inspection/Registration is nearly a year out of date, but I've been extremely lucky so far. Only pulled over once for a busted taillight, and they let me go with a warning when I mentioned that I've been trying to save up to get it repaired (Which is true).
Took it to the shop a couple days ago, and my mechanic (Who I very well trust) quoted me basically about $2,000, assuming the repairs needed are less than a full engine replacement, twice that if the engine does actually need to be replaced. I financed through Western Funding, because I *needed* the truck for work (Not a mistake I plan to make again...). We are not liquid enough at the moment to even come close to covering the repair bill, though a payment plan is a likely possibility.
I guess I need to know what my options are regarding downgrading to a more affordable, less very-broken vehicle, or if it's worth it in the long run to just eat the cost of the repairs, hope it lasts long enough to pay the loan down (Assuming I'm able to get a better job in the near future), and then trade/salvage it out when the loan is less titanic-levels of underwater. KBB "Fair" condition only suggests $2,000 tops for trade-in value, so I'd be stuck with an $8,000 bill with no car attached to it.
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2024.05.09 00:55 teh_kyle Laminate: Looking for advice and validation.
HI All - I have been lurking here for a while, as the wife and i are looking to evaluate replacing flooring in our late 70s split level in the PNW.
First a little bit of background - we bought a home in 2020 that was a complete remodel, the remodelers chose to put some relatively cheap floating engineered hard wood in, and i've come to learn that they didnt do a great job with the prep needed, which has caused some issues for us. Its super loose, i can kick it with my shoes on and get it to move quite significantly, they didnt leave enough room for expansion in some places, and too much in others. This has led to the floor being super squeaky, squishy, and overall just not a pleasant floor to walk on. We've been looking to address/replace this for some time, however, i knew that it would be pricy, and didnt really want to deal with it, but it seems that we have to now (wifey putting her foot down... hopefully on new flooring :P).
So weve been looking at options - and it seems that either LVP or Laminate would be the best product. I dont really want to pay for real wood, and i dont want to deal with another floating engineered hard wood. We are in the PNW, so water is a constant factor, we also have pets, so we dont want to deal with scratches/wateetc.
The laminate that we've gotten a quote on so far, is the Gaia Nearwood, red collection, this:
GAIA // Nearwood Red Collection // Palermo 20 Pattern Repeat: Random Laminated Wood Flooring (gaiafloor.com) The product seems solid, but the quote is pricy. For install of 2060 sq ft (basically the whole house), total quote for removal, prep, materials, labor, etc, comes out to just over $30k. For an install price of ~$14.50/sqft (flooring itself is $5.50/sqft). This is in the PNW, where labor costs are a little higher.
A few questions i have:
- Does it "make sense" to replace ~4yr old floors with Laminate if it was a bad install? I feel like this is a downgrade... but maybe thats just my historical biases.
- We have only gotten one quote so far, we plan on getting a few, but is this roughly what we would expect for a full quote install for a product like this in a high cost of living area?
- With respect to LVP vs modern Laminate, what's the general consensus on quality/longevity here? is modern laminate as good as the salesmen are saying it is?
- What would be considered the "best" laminate currently? And whats the biggest discrepancy between a midgrade laminate, or a top-tier laminate? I dont mind paying a little extra for a more quality product.
- My primary complaint about the flooring we have now, is how mushy, squeaky, and loose the engineered floor is. The sales reps that we've seen, attribute most of this to bad prep, and "no amount of remediation" will fix this, unless we take up all the current flooring and re-level the subfloor, which i understand. However, i am super nervous that after spending whatever amount of money, i still will "not like" the floors. Can anyone relate, or go through something similar with moving from an engineered floating floor, to a laminate floor? Pros/cons, likes/dislikes, etc?
Thanks in advance, been loving reading through commentary here!
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2024.05.07 13:05 Plastic_Finish1968 The Long Walk Home: chapter 8 (To Her, Little Ceasar's Crazy Bred is Just Bred.)
Ted did not leave my head. He said he "didn't want to risk getting lost," also he could see this way, using my eyes. He was used to being in a body with multiple minds, only, he was the dominant one before. He might still be come to think of it, the Irritating worm.
My walk home was more of a stumble and scrape now. My sides hurt and I'm sure I lost some weight. I needed a walking stick—or a wheelchair, hell, get me a gurney.
Ted kept me talking. I think it was just to make sure I didn't double over and die.
He asked, "So, that thing took you for a ride huh? Made you dream of things? What happened before I came and rescued you?"
That Ted, always reminding me that I almost died without him. I would have to use this opportunity to punish him.
"Oh, it was the best. I was dreaming of my ex-girlfriend. Let me describe her—"
"Actually, I take that back. I know where this is going," Ted interrupted. "I believe you. Go back to groaning or—whatever."
"Let's see, I can only describe her as the extra-most-bestest hot-and-ready pornstar-Barbie I've always wanted," I said dreamily.
"La-la-la I'm not listening," he sang.
"But, and it's a big but, to keep in the pizza theme; to her, Little Caesars' Crazy Bread is just plain ol' bread. She was crazy, which was great sometimes. I would tap that like Morse code."
"Please, I beg of you. I take back all of the bullying I've ever inflicted upon you. Just stop."
"But I'm just getting to the good part. You aren't bashful, are you?" I took a note. Ted, from planet Tedidian-Beta, had a cultural modesty like Earth. I could use that.
"No, I am not bashful. I merely wish not to hear of your conquests," he shot back.
"Well good, then I'll continue. You know that awkward interlude between when you go, and you can go again?"
"I wish to be acquainted with this God fellow you mentioned before. Kill me now so I can meet him."
"Not in a fever dream. Yeah baby. It's all day and all night in there," I tapped my head.
Bullying Ted aside, I really wasn't having that much fun. If you remember, I'm still being held together by glue, but as it turns out, nothing in this place is insignificant. Every small detail would be important to my survival, or lack thereof.
In this case, it would be in the form of those little creatures with way too much skin. When I last saw them, they were in the carved-out tunnel licking clean the protein bar wrapper. Now, I noticed a cautious following of these things. They hid from me when I shined a light towards them, but not completely, always peering around a rock or corner. They were getting braver, perhaps smelling my blood in the air.
Now that I can see them a little better, I think of a quote from one Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, German poet.
"Give me an ounce of gold, and I'll plate the whole world."
"Give me just one of these skin aliens, and I'll upholster the whole crypt, throw pillows included," a quote from one Sean Miller, American astronaut, just now.
I aimed Ted's gun, and they all scattered. "Smart enough to know what this thing is," I thought. "Not smart enough not to follow unfortunately."
They kept coming when I turned back, keeping a respectful distance. Whenever I stopped for a break, they stopped. Whenever I sped up, they sped up. Whenever I needed to eat, they too stopped and ate, finding burrowing creatures the way I had when I was opened like a fish. They even stopped to "relieve themselves" when I found nature's call too strong to ignore.
I really shouldn't ignore them. The moment I ignore them, they will assuredly pounce like bloodthirsty rats. Though, it has been a few days. I know, "days" with quotes, but if I don't use some unit of time I am familiar with, I might go insane—or insaner. My circadian rhythm clung to any cycle it could find, like an overly attached girlfriend. It found no rhythm in; when I could eat, lighting level cycles, nor in exertion. As a result, sleep came irregularly, but I still feel the need to call the moments in between sleep "days."
It was days of following and not approaching. Days of me stumbling about when I should be horizontal in a hospital bed. Days of little to no food, and only juicy hydrating glow fungus to keep my lips wet.
They followed like a pack of ugly flat wolves, waiting for the first sign of weakness. I can't think like that. I can't imagine myself being torn apart, prey to another lesser carnivore. Not now, not after having defeated so many greater carnivores. Thoughts like that are bad—bad for me, bad for America.
I miss home. More now that I am semi-coherent. I miss sashaying my way through training of all things. I remember everything leading up to the launch like it was today. It was after the death of the greatest space craze in human history. After 14 more shallow graves were dug on Mars, where no flesh could decompose properly, leaving a final lonely body without a hole of his own to lay in.
That was very sad news to everyone of all nations. We were, for the first time in human history, united in common grief. There were efforts, but no amount of money in the world could save them. They signed up for that, as I had this. No one ever wanted to speak of space again after this, then "it" was found. A thing that punched far and above its weight class in gravitational pull. It just appeared amongst the asteroid field between Mars and Jupiter, affecting neither, and affected by neither. No one knew what it was, or how it got there. It just was.
It was barely big enough to be considered a dwarf planet, but for some reason or another, the lab coats at NASA refused to classify it as such. Pluto had suffered a similar fate, downgraded from planetary status to dwarf planet. How good it must feel to be able to revoke "dwarf planetary membership" from this thing, like what was done to her. Or maybe Pluto would have preferred to have a friend. Schadenfreude vs. loneliness, that was Pluto's dilemma.
Of course, Pluto was just a rock, uninterested in such opinions. This thing, however, was more than that. Sure, it was "rock" but why so heavy? Why just appear out of nowhere? And why do we see movement in the holes peppering its surface?
I am, like the Martian astronauts before me, like the alien explorers long dead, like Ted who was also dead, doomed to a graveless death, no marker left behind but my body.
Then why am I still walking? Why not find a nice little planet with low gravity for my back pain, and maybe some nice aliens that eat what I eat? I could learn their language, and find a nice little blue lady to settle down with. But for some reason, I don't. Even if I have to walk, I will on bloody stumps, make it home. There's that human stubbornness I mentioned earlier, or perhaps delirium.
"My word, you are mawkish," Ted said. "And yes, I know what you were thinking. You were monologuing to yourself, in your own head. Do you like the sound of your own voice? You know, you can think in any voice you want. I've heard you do it."
"Entertaining parasites never was my forte, but I'll work on it."
"Well, while you were listening to the sound of your own inner voice—boring by the way, find a new hobby—I found a pattern in the walls."
"Huh?"
"We are approaching another portal," he spelled out. "Look."
He took control of my right arm and pointed with it. Hidden within images of unknown creatures, chicken scratch I can only assume is language, and other nonsensical markings, was an image of a six-armed alien reaching out to touch the hand of a hunchbacked creature.
I stared at it for a moment, then asked. "How close are we?"
"Very," he said.
I then remembered the planet that nearly crushed me.
"How big is the planet? Can I breathe there?" I asked.
"I don't know, but you are an explorer. Go explore."
"And you're my translator. Translate."
Secretly, I think Ted was more interested in exploring than I was at the moment. I was just internally monologuing about home, but I have to admit, seeing alien worlds is what I signed up for.
I walked on, still followed by my hungry wolf pack, and came to the portal Ted predicted. It was solid like concrete. The residents of this world must have been tired of visitors, or chasing wandering children, and sealed shut this tomb. I placed a hand on the rocky surface.
"Shame. I was really hoping to see the other side," Ted said.
"Can you blame them? This portal appeared in their own backyard. They could have nations like mine. Which nation did it land on? Did that country survive when all others wanted to take this thing? Or even if they were united, this place is full of so much death and danger."
"True," was Ted's reply. "Still though. It's a shame to have to turn back."
We would turn back, but found ourselves cornered by the little rats. They formed a carpet of folds and freckles. When I pointed Ted's gun at them, all but one scattered. That one approached carefully, coming to just about mid-shin height, and laid at my feet, some worm with gills. That one left, and another came. Then another, and another, and another. By the time they were finished, there was a pile of quietly shrieking worms. Knowing my luck, those worms were probably also intelligent, but I won't turn down a free meal.
Had I just gotten here, I would have politely declined, thanked them, and offered them some of my food in return. Now that I have tasted what it takes to survive in a place like this, I knelt down in front of the pile, and ate like a starving animal. I stopped only when my wounds reminded me how inelastic my sutures were.
In stories, people feared alien diseases. Think, the aliens from "War of the Worlds." Honestly, I think that author just wrote himself into a corner. In reality, our diseases never would have evolved to infect alien hosts. The food sources they were after would not have existed in the alien landscape of a Martian's respiratory system unless they originated from Earth. It's the same reason my body struggles to digest any alien creature I come across. I'm here to tell you, If I find a dead human, I'm eating it, no second thoughts. My gut would thank me. You judge, but you haven't been brought to the point I have. The worms did help though. They took the edge off. Thank you, little wrinkly mice.
Apparently, I was to be their big scary bipedal glass-domed monster, emphasis on "their." We found ourselves in a crypt full of monsters and ghouls, and I was the friendliest of them all. Not to mention, this monster just whopped another bigger scarier one's ass, Though, at great cost and bodily harm.
Placing my hand back to the wall, the concrete felt warm. I forgot how cold I was. It turns out, it's cold out here with no sun. One of the few sources of warmth were these portals that happened to exist on a planet's surface.
The largest of the naked rats crawled on a five-limbed chassis towards me, stared up, then to the wall. I'm going to call him Jim-Bob from here on out. His uneven number of limbs each tapped the ground rhythmically, with no real discernible pattern other than the rhythm and semi-constant speed.
"I think he's talking," Ted spoke.
"Can you tell what he's saying?"
"Their speech travels through the ground and I can't feel what they feel because your feet aren't sensitive enough, so no. I can't translate, but I can tell you they are attempting to drill through the concrete."
Sure enough, I looked over, and that's exactly what they were doing. Powerful teeth and grasping claws were hard at work. These creatures had a profound understanding of leverage, and used it well. It wouldn't be long before they made it through, no matter how thick the concrete was.
"That's a bad idea," I suggested.
"Why?" Ted asked.
"They plugged this hole for a reason. What if they were constantly being invaded by aliens and monsters? What if they shoot me on sight? It's best we leave them alone."
Ted was profoundly disappointed, but admitted, "and they could have guards stationed just outside. Then how do you suggest we stop them?"
"Walk away?" I suggested.
I did. The hard workers stopped, looked to me, then scurried to the front of me, leading the way.
It worked. It seemed the rats were desperate to appease me. They were like used car salesmen offering me snacks and water to convince me to buy their most expensive model. Kinda slimy if you think of it, or cute if you squint.
As all things inevitably end up down here, we ran into yet another monster... "yippee," I say in my most nauseated voice.
A lazy xenobiologist would call this thing reptilian, just because it came with scales and feathers, and a forked tongue. Nothing you find off Earth could ever be reptilian, of course, because reptiles never left Earth. Or, as far as I'm aware. The verdict is still out on the dinosaurs.
I take that back. Maybe this is a dinosaur, after 65 million more years of evolution. In that case, I take back what I said about lazy xenobiologists. My inner child hopes against reason to see a dinosaur so much that I'll even tack that title onto something that couldn't possibly be one.
I drew Ted's gun and aimed it. It backed away. Okay then, Maybe we have an understanding.
Its head tilted towards the gun. There was a strong sense of recognition and fear in those eyes.
"Ted? Tell me you didn't shoot one of these when you were alive."
"I assuredly did not," he responded.
"Then why is it looking at your gun like this?"
Next chapter:
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2024.05.07 13:04 Plastic_Finish1968 The Long Walk Home: chapter 8 (To Her, Little Ceasar's Crazy Bred is Just Bred.)
Ted did not leave my head. He said he "didn't want to risk getting lost," also he could see this way, using my eyes. He was used to being in a body with multiple minds, only, he was the dominant one before. He might still be come to think of it, the Irritating worm.
My walk home was more of a stumble and scrape now. My sides hurt and I'm sure I lost some weight. I needed a walking stick—or a wheelchair, hell, get me a gurney.
Ted kept me talking. I think it was just to make sure I didn't double over and die.
He asked, "So, that thing took you for a ride huh? Made you dream of things? What happened before I came and rescued you?"
That Ted, always reminding me that I almost died without him. I would have to use this opportunity to punish him.
"Oh, it was the best. I was dreaming of my ex-girlfriend. Let me describe her—"
"Actually, I take that back. I know where this is going," Ted interrupted. "I believe you. Go back to groaning or—whatever."
"Let's see, I can only describe her as the extra-most-bestest hot-and-ready pornstar-Barbie I've always wanted," I said dreamily.
"La-la-la I'm not listening," he sang.
"But, and it's a big but, to keep in the pizza theme; to her, Little Caesars' Crazy Bread is just plain ol' bread. She was crazy, which was great sometimes. I would tap that like Morse code."
"Please, I beg of you. I take back all of the bullying I've ever inflicted upon you. Just stop."
"But I'm just getting to the good part. You aren't bashful, are you?" I took a note. Ted, from planet Tedidian-Beta, had a cultural modesty like Earth. I could use that.
"No, I am not bashful. I merely wish not to hear of your conquests," he shot back.
"Well good, then I'll continue. You know that awkward interlude between when you go, and you can go again?"
"I wish to be acquainted with this God fellow you mentioned before. Kill me now so I can meet him."
"Not in a fever dream. Yeah baby. It's all day and all night in there," I tapped my head.
Bullying Ted aside, I really wasn't having that much fun. If you remember, I'm still being held together by glue, but as it turns out, nothing in this place is insignificant. Every small detail would be important to my survival, or lack thereof.
In this case, it would be in the form of those little creatures with way too much skin. When I last saw them, they were in the carved-out tunnel licking clean the protein bar wrapper. Now, I noticed a cautious following of these things. They hid from me when I shined a light towards them, but not completely, always peering around a rock or corner. They were getting braver, perhaps smelling my blood in the air.
Now that I can see them a little better, I think of a quote from one Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, German poet.
"Give me an ounce of gold, and I'll plate the whole world."
"Give me just one of these skin aliens, and I'll upholster the whole crypt, throw pillows included," a quote from one Sean Miller, American astronaut, just now.
I aimed Ted's gun, and they all scattered. "Smart enough to know what this thing is," I thought. "Not smart enough not to follow unfortunately."
They kept coming when I turned back, keeping a respectful distance. Whenever I stopped for a break, they stopped. Whenever I sped up, they sped up. Whenever I needed to eat, they too stopped and ate, finding burrowing creatures the way I had when I was opened like a fish. They even stopped to "relieve themselves" when I found nature's call too strong to ignore.
I really shouldn't ignore them. The moment I ignore them, they will assuredly pounce like bloodthirsty rats. Though, it has been a few days. I know, "days" with quotes, but if I don't use some unit of time I am familiar with, I might go insane—or insaner. My circadian rhythm clung to any cycle it could find, like an overly attached girlfriend. It found no rhythm in; when I could eat, lighting level cycles, nor in exertion. As a result, sleep came irregularly, but I still feel the need to call the moments in between sleep "days."
It was days of following and not approaching. Days of me stumbling about when I should be horizontal in a hospital bed. Days of little to no food, and only juicy hydrating glow fungus to keep my lips wet.
They followed like a pack of ugly flat wolves, waiting for the first sign of weakness. I can't think like that. I can't imagine myself being torn apart, prey to another lesser carnivore. Not now, not after having defeated so many greater carnivores. Thoughts like that are bad—bad for me, bad for America.
I miss home. More now that I am semi-coherent. I miss sashaying my way through training of all things. I remember everything leading up to the launch like it was today. It was after the death of the greatest space craze in human history. After 14 more shallow graves were dug on Mars, where no flesh could decompose properly, leaving a final lonely body without a hole of his own to lay in.
That was very sad news to everyone of all nations. We were, for the first time in human history, united in common grief. There were efforts, but no amount of money in the world could save them. They signed up for that, as I had this. No one ever wanted to speak of space again after this, then "it" was found. A thing that punched far and above its weight class in gravitational pull. It just appeared amongst the asteroid field between Mars and Jupiter, affecting neither, and affected by neither. No one knew what it was, or how it got there. It just was.
It was barely big enough to be considered a dwarf planet, but for some reason or another, the lab coats at NASA refused to classify it as such. Pluto had suffered a similar fate, downgraded from planetary status to dwarf planet. How good it must feel to be able to revoke "dwarf planetary membership" from this thing, like what was done to her. Or maybe Pluto would have preferred to have a friend. Schadenfreude vs. loneliness, that was Pluto's dilemma.
Of course, Pluto was just a rock, uninterested in such opinions. This thing, however, was more than that. Sure, it was "rock" but why so heavy? Why just appear out of nowhere? And why do we see movement in the holes peppering its surface?
I am, like the Martian astronauts before me, like the alien explorers long dead, like Ted who was also dead, doomed to a graveless death, no marker left behind but my body.
Then why am I still walking? Why not find a nice little planet with low gravity for my back pain, and maybe some nice aliens that eat what I eat? I could learn their language, and find a nice little blue lady to settle down with. But for some reason, I don't. Even if I have to walk, I will on bloody stumps, make it home. There's that human stubbornness I mentioned earlier, or perhaps delirium.
"My word, you are mawkish," Ted said. "And yes, I know what you were thinking. You were monologuing to yourself, in your own head. Do you like the sound of your own voice? You know, you can think in any voice you want. I've heard you do it."
"Entertaining parasites never was my forte, but I'll work on it."
"Well, while you were listening to the sound of your own inner voice—boring by the way, find a new hobby—I found a pattern in the walls."
"Huh?"
"We are approaching another portal," he spelled out. "Look."
He took control of my right arm and pointed with it. Hidden within images of unknown creatures, chicken scratch I can only assume is language, and other nonsensical markings, was an image of a six-armed alien reaching out to touch the hand of a hunchbacked creature.
I stared at it for a moment, then asked. "How close are we?"
"Very," he said.
I then remembered the planet that nearly crushed me.
"How big is the planet? Can I breathe there?" I asked.
"I don't know, but you are an explorer. Go explore."
"And you're my translator. Translate."
Secretly, I think Ted was more interested in exploring than I was at the moment. I was just internally monologuing about home, but I have to admit, seeing alien worlds is what I signed up for.
I walked on, still followed by my hungry wolf pack, and came to the portal Ted predicted. It was solid like concrete. The residents of this world must have been tired of visitors, or chasing wandering children, and sealed shut this tomb. I placed a hand on the rocky surface.
"Shame. I was really hoping to see the other side," Ted said.
"Can you blame them? This portal appeared in their own backyard. They could have nations like mine. Which nation did it land on? Did that country survive when all others wanted to take this thing? Or even if they were united, this place is full of so much death and danger."
"True," was Ted's reply. "Still though. It's a shame to have to turn back."
We would turn back, but found ourselves cornered by the little rats. They formed a carpet of folds and freckles. When I pointed Ted's gun at them, all but one scattered. That one approached carefully, coming to just about mid-shin height, and laid at my feet, some worm with gills. That one left, and another came. Then another, and another, and another. By the time they were finished, there was a pile of quietly shrieking worms. Knowing my luck, those worms were probably also intelligent, but I won't turn down a free meal.
Had I just gotten here, I would have politely declined, thanked them, and offered them some of my food in return. Now that I have tasted what it takes to survive in a place like this, I knelt down in front of the pile, and ate like a starving animal. I stopped only when my wounds reminded me how inelastic my sutures were.
In stories, people feared alien diseases. Think, the aliens from "War of the Worlds." Honestly, I think that author just wrote himself into a corner. In reality, our diseases never would have evolved to infect alien hosts. The food sources they were after would not have existed in the alien landscape of a Martian's respiratory system unless they originated from Earth. It's the same reason my body struggles to digest any alien creature I come across. I'm here to tell you, If I find a dead human, I'm eating it, no second thoughts. My gut would thank me. You judge, but you haven't been brought to the point I have. The worms did help though. They took the edge off. Thank you, little wrinkly mice.
Apparently, I was to be their big scary bipedal glass-domed monster, emphasis on "their." We found ourselves in a crypt full of monsters and ghouls, and I was the friendliest of them all. Not to mention, this monster just whopped another bigger scarier one's ass, Though, at great cost and bodily harm.
Placing my hand back to the wall, the concrete felt warm. I forgot how cold I was. It turns out, it's cold out here with no sun. One of the few sources of warmth were these portals that happened to exist on a planet's surface.
The largest of the naked rats crawled on a five-limbed chassis towards me, stared up, then to the wall. I'm going to call him Jim-Bob from here on out. His uneven number of limbs each tapped the ground rhythmically, with no real discernible pattern other than the rhythm and semi-constant speed.
"I think he's talking," Ted spoke.
"Can you tell what he's saying?"
"Their speech travels through the ground and I can't feel what they feel because your feet aren't sensitive enough, so no. I can't translate, but I can tell you they are attempting to drill through the concrete."
Sure enough, I looked over, and that's exactly what they were doing. Powerful teeth and grasping claws were hard at work. These creatures had a profound understanding of leverage, and used it well. It wouldn't be long before they made it through, no matter how thick the concrete was.
"That's a bad idea," I suggested.
"Why?" Ted asked.
"They plugged this hole for a reason. What if they were constantly being invaded by aliens and monsters? What if they shoot me on sight? It's best we leave them alone."
Ted was profoundly disappointed, but admitted, "and they could have guards stationed just outside. Then how do you suggest we stop them?"
"Walk away?" I suggested.
I did. The hard workers stopped, looked to me, then scurried to the front of me, leading the way.
It worked. It seemed the rats were desperate to appease me. They were like used car salesmen offering me snacks and water to convince me to buy their most expensive model. Kinda slimy if you think of it, or cute if you squint.
As all things inevitably end up down here, we ran into yet another monster... "yippee," I say in my most nauseated voice.
A lazy xenobiologist would call this thing reptilian, just because it came with scales and feathers, and a forked tongue. Nothing you find off Earth could ever be reptilian, of course, because reptiles never left Earth. Or, as far as I'm aware. The verdict is still out on the dinosaurs.
I take that back. Maybe this is a dinosaur, after 65 million more years of evolution. In that case, I take back what I said about lazy xenobiologists. My inner child hopes against reason to see a dinosaur so much that I'll even tack that title onto something that couldn't possibly be one.
I drew Ted's gun and aimed it. It backed away. Okay then, Maybe we have an understanding.
Its head tilted towards the gun. There was a strong sense of recognition and fear in those eyes.
"Ted? Tell me you didn't shoot one of these when you were alive."
"I assuredly did not," he responded.
"Then why is it looking at your gun like this?"
Next chapter:
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2024.05.06 07:18 Eman_Pop Optimal Offseason Gameplan
Before I begin the wall of text, I know this will probably be unpopular to the average Leafs fan but I think this perspective is needed.
I understand the sentiment of wanting to break up the Core 4 this offseason but this is NOT the optimal solution for this upcoming season and possibly beyond. Looking back in full revisionist history mode, the time to do that was after the Montreal series. At the time we gave the team a pass because Tavares missed the series and Muzzin missed game 7. Changes I agree
need to be made this offseason no matter what:
- Keefe gone
- Guy Boucher as the PP coach gone (1/21)
- Samsonov gone
- Brodie gone
Easy part is over. Time to take a step back and evaluate where we'll be as a team and what our cup chances look like for the 2024-2025 season. Before going into it, the conclusion is that we won't be cup favorites with the assets we have and we'll need to wait until 2025-26 to have another push. Next year should be aimed at setting a foundation of good cap management to propel us into a legitimate contender for 4-5 years afterward.
1.) We don't have our own first, second, third or fourth draft picks for 2025. Limits our ability to be buyers at the deadline.
2.) Under contract/RFA's realistically not getting moved: Matthews, Nylander, Kämpf, Järnkrok, McMann, Knies, Holmberg, Rielly, McCabe, Benoit. Each of these players are either overperforming their point shares compared to their current contracts or aren't part of 'the problem' of taking the step up from being a good team to a great team.
3.) Looking at the rest of our roster - who is
underperforming their cap value the most?
Answer: Tavares, 11mill/year. We all knew he would slow down near the end of his contract. This year he performed equivalent to a 5.5-6mill/year player.
This is THE biggest roster fault we have, losing ~6mill worth of value compared to output. This said, trading him this offseason makes no sense/has negative equity. He has a NMC & no team would take his contract. Buying him out makes even less sense, the way his contract is structured we'd be paying 10.3mill next year. On top of this, without Tavares our center depth takes a big hit which we'd have to make up for in free agency at a premium. By trading Tavares we would definitely be a worst team both next year and in the future.
Solution: Keep Tavares next year and re-sign him for the 2025-26 and beyond seasons to a 4.5mill/year 3C role, preferably on a 3 year deal. He'd be 35-37 during this timeframe.
4.) Marner is the next obvious trade choice. He also has a full NMC. Pierre Lebrun recently gave a good quote, "Changes are likely coming for the Leafs but just a reminder that ‘blowing it up’ is not easy with core guys with full no-move clauses. Players have lots of leverage with those clauses. Trades are rarely full value as a result. Something to remember in the weeks ahead."
For Marner to waive his NMC, he'd have to give a list of teams we could trade him to. GM's know the position we're in and we'd be selling low on a 100 point player in their prime. After looking through every teams rosters going into the offseason (focusing on western conference teams), there aren't many 'hockey trades' that make sense.
If anyone could reply to this thread with suggestions, would be thankful.
Optimal Solution: Read thread below. First, offer Marner an extension no more than 11% of the salary cap going forward, starting in the 2025-2026 offseason. That's ~$9,650,000-$10,250,000 a year. If he declines the extension offer, ask him to waive his NMC, if he declines sit him for the season until he waives. At this point, look for a trade that's a slight downgrade with the upside of cap savings/future assets.
https://www.reddit.com/leafs/comments/a4yepa/oc_addressing_the_mitch_marner_will_get_10/ 5.) Re-sign Domi. Sign Stolarz to share time with Woll. Target Montour & Skjei as tier 1 Defensemen. One of our biggest faults this season is a lack of a shot from the point on the PP and lack of defensemen that can bring the puck up through the neutral zone either through stretch passes or actually skating it up the ice while also being responsible in their own zone. Pesce, Walker, Roy as back up options.
6.) Give the new coach time to implement their system. Evaluate at the deadline. Trade Marner at deadline if the opportunity presents itself.
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2024.05.03 08:57 PLUTO_HAS_COME_BACK Vibhajjavāda and Sarvāstivāda: Analysing the Heart Sutra from Theravadin Perspective—Part 2
2.0. VIBHAJJĀVADA:
Sthaviravāda [
Theravāda] the doctrine of the elders. Sthaviravāda is the oldest form of the Buddha's teachings [...] five hundred holy elders (sthavira-s) [thera-s] who formed the first Buddhist Council soon after the Mahāparinirvāṇa of the Buddha. The assembled monks headed by Kāśyapa, also known as Mahākāśyapa chanted the teachings of the Buddha from their memory and thus they came to be known as the words of the elders. [Buddhānusmṛti - A Glossary of Buddhist Terms]
vibhajjavāda :
[m.] the religion of reason; the religion of analytical reasoning.
Sarvāstivāda : the Sarvāstivāda subschool, an offshoot and dissidence of the Sthaviravāda school (pāli, Theravāda) [Baruah, 2000, p. 44 as quoted by Dilip Loundo (2016 page 19)]. The Sarvāstivāda school drew considerable opposition among Buddhist circles, being accused of being directly influenced by Vedic realist schools of Sāṃkhya and Vaiśeṣika and, as a consequence, they were expelled from the Buddhist community [King 1995, p. 91 as quoted by
Dilip Loundo (2016 page 20), in
THE ‘TWO TRUTHS’ DOCTRINE (SATYADVAYA) AND THE NATURE OF UPĀYA IN NĀGĀRJUNA]
Dhamma-Vinaya—Buddhavada—Vibhajjavāda—Anattavada
2.0.1. The Pāli Dialect:
Pali is the scriptural language (dialect) of the Vibhajjavādis. It is the language of the Buddha.
[The Pali Companion:
Table 1: A Simplified Tree of World Languages (tipitaka.net)]
The Old Indo-Aryan period comprises Vedic Sanskrit (used in Vedas, Brahmanas and Upanishads) and classical Sanskrit (used in Mahabharata, Ramayana and Puranas). However, contemporary Sanskrit and Buddhist Hybrid Sanskrit (used in Mahayana texts) are later developments during the Middle Indo-Aryan period.
- What was the local dialect/language of the original composers of the Vedas?
- That local dialect could be the early Prakrit or Pali.
[Apr 19, 2024
IAS Exam Latest Updates (
Amruta Patil)]
Prakrit is a group of vernacular Middle Indo-Aryan languages spoken in India between the third and seventh century BCE. According to current research, Pali is a mash-up of numerous Prakrit languages that were amalgamated and heavily Sanskritized around the third century BCE.
[
The manual of the bhikkhu (Venerable Dhamma Sāmi) page100]
In the context of the dhamma, the use of a Christian monastic terminology (ordination, confession, etc.) or of Sanskrit terms (karma, nirvâna, etc.) is a negligence. Their meaning is different and sometimes in contradiction with the meaning of the terms that they intend to translate and which the Buddha utilised. Pali is a dialect, not a language. Before it was written down, the collection of canonical texts was transmitted only orally. This is why there is no Pali alphabet.
[A bhikkhu is] a being who renounces (the pleasures of the world) [and a member of the sangha].
2.0.2. One-sided Approach
Sariputtatthera Vatthu:
Verse 11: They take untruth for truth; they take truth for untruth; such persons can never arrive at the truth, for they hold wrong views.
Verse 12: They take truth for truth; they take untruth for untruth; such persons arrive at the truth, for they hold right views.
Faith is a one-sided approach.
- Faith provides truths and rejects others.
Speculative view (hypothesis) taken (with faith in science/scientists) is also one-sided.
- Some theories cannot be proven, so one must take them with faith.
- For example, Big Bang Theory and Darwinian Evolution are one-sided approach.
- Georges Lemaître, a Catholic priest, is known as the father of the Big Bang Theory. He proposed this theory to explain how God created the universe. Some claimed the Big Bang Theory had been proven.
- Darwinian Theory and Evolutionary theory proposed how a group of a species would mutate to speciate. The gradual change led to speciation has never been observed, however. The gradual change rather leads to subgroups in a family. The physicality and mentality of a species preserve themselves. Cats would always want to be cats no matter how their looks have changed, for example. Living fossils, such as seashell species and crocodilians, have had different appearances.
- Darwin died a Christian. Physics is agnostic.
Faith and truth are two opposite ends, however.
The actual truth is also one-sided. It is at the opposite side of faith.
- One who knows the actual truth might not be able to show or explain it to others.
- For example, Nibbána—the Buddha explained Nibbána for 45 years, but only a few understood it.
- For example, Kappa Sutta explains the four immeasurable eons.
- Faith can be based on truth.
- One can become a Buddhist by conviction after hearing or reading a verse and is convinced by it.
Buddhāvataṃsaka Sūtra:
Buddhāvataṃsaka (
the Flower Adornment Sutra) assumes:
[the Sound Hearers / arhats] constantly dwelling in the reality-limit and ultimate stillness and quietude, they were far removed from great compassion. They forsook living beings and dwelt in their own affairs. [This quote is also found in the Gandavyuha Sutra (Entering the Dharma Realm) of the Tibetan Buddhist Encyclopedia.]
- The sutra does not inform us where to find a bodhisattva to see his missions and actions to compare with the arhats. It does not compare the works of the bodhisattvas and the works of the arhats and their relationship with the living beings.
Guide to the Bodhisattva’s Way of Life Shantideva Anger Destroys All Virtue and Peace
[A moment of] ill will destroys all of these good deeds, as well as generosity and worship of the sugatas, even if one has practiced them for thousands of cosmic cycles.
Fault-finders never attain the cessation of aversion. Arahants are not among those obsessed with fault-finding and baseless judgment.
Arahants do not live a lifestyle harmful to themselves and others. The arahants have stopped harmful existence. They cannot provide material support to the poor. However, they can help the seekers to find the path to liberation. They do not possess anything other than the eight basic requisites, which support them to travel the middle way, avoiding the two extremes stated in the
Dhammacakkappavattana Sutta:
- Yo c·āyaṃ kāmesu kāma·sukh·allik·ānuyogo hīno gammo pothujjaniko an·ariyo an·attha·saṃhito,
- the devotion to hedonism towards kāma, which is inferior, vulgar, common, an·ariya, deprived of benefit,
- yo c·āyaṃ attakilamath·ānuyogo dukkho an·ariyo an·attha·saṃhito.
- The devotion to self-mortification, which is dukkha, an·ariya, deprived of benefit.
The Bhikkhus' Rules: FAQs Bhikkhu Ariyesako: [A] practising bhikkhu knows that as his mind changes so quickly, he has to be extremely cautious about involving himself in doubtful situations. It is better to be safe than sorry, even if this may seem over-scrupulous.
- Theravadins are encouraged to watch their own minds. One, who does not know his own mind, judging others' minds could be offensive.
Sacitta Sutta (AN 10:51)
One’s Own Mind Thanissaro Bhikkhu Just as when a person whose turban or head was on fire would put forth extra desire, effort, diligence, endeavor, relentlessness, mindfulness, & alertness to put out the fire on his turban or head; in the same way, the monk should put forth extra desire, effort, diligence, endeavor, relentlessness, mindfulness, & alertness for the abandoning of those very same evil, unskillful qualities.
Kakacūpama Sutta (MN 21)
The Simile of the Saw 'Our minds will be unaffected and we will say no evil words. We will remain sympathetic, with a mind of good will, and with no inner hate. We will keep pervading these people with an awareness imbued with good will and, beginning with them, we will keep pervading the all-encompassing world with an awareness imbued with good will — abundant, expansive, immeasurable, free from hostility, free from ill will.'
Dhammapada 202:
natthi rāgasamo aggi natthi dosasamo kali natthi khandhasamā dukkhā natthi santiparaṃ sukhaṃ
no fire like passion; no evil like hatred; no ill like (the burden of) khandhas; no bliss that surpasses the Perfect Peace (i.e., Nibbāna).
santiparaṃ: santipara-, Adj.: higher than tranquility.
- Nibbána is the state of peace completely free from the burden of the nāma-rupa.
The Sangha Protects Others, According to the Buddha:
"O Bhikkhus, protecting oneself, one protects others; protecting others, one protects oneself. And how does one, in protecting oneself, protect others? By earnest practice, cultivation and development (of satipatthana). In this way, by protecting oneself, one protects others. [Sammasati - An Exposition of Right Mindfulness (Ven. P. A. Payutto)]
- For the obvious reasons, the Buddha did not say martial art, self-defence techniques, army, police, etc. can protect oneself and others. These things might protect oneself but do not protect others. Others are the other sides, enemies, foes, other martial artists, other self-defenders, other armies, other police, etc. They are trained to suppress others.
2.0.3. Theravadī: One Who Does Not Speak One-sidedly:
Vibhajjavāda.– The name given to the Dhamma by the orthodox; the term is identical with Theravāda and the Buddha is described as Vibhajjavādī. e.g., Mhv.v.171; VibhA.130; cp. Kvu. Trs. introd. p.38.
Vibhajjavādo is mentioned twice by the Buddha in the Subha Sutta.
Vibhajavādo kho ahamettha māṇava nāhamettha ekaṃsavādo [Subhasuttaṃ].
I am one who speaks after making an analysis; I do not speak one-sidedly. (I do not praise the wrong way of practice ...)" [MN 99 Subha Sutta: To Subha (translation)]
[(Brahma,vihāra) Subha Sutta:] The Buddha however tells Subha not to make summary statements without first examining or analyzing the situation.
vibhajja :
[abs. of vibhajati] having divided or analysed.
vibhajjavāda :
[m.] the religion of reason; the religion of analytical reasoning.
Vibhajjavādis (the Analysers, the Analytical Reasoners) are reasonable, as they avoid the one-sided approach of blind faith and theories. They speak based on observational knowledge of the phenomena. Strangers do not understand the attainments of the arahants that provide them with the ability to speak the truths in detail.
vibhajati: to distribute, divide; (fig.) to distinguish, dissect, divide up, classify; to deal with something in detail, to go into details.
vibhajati:
[vi + bhaj + a] divides; dissects; classifies. It can mean 'to analyse'.
Dhamma-niyāma Sutta [page 100]
... vibhajati uttānī-karoti "sabbe saṅkhārā aniccā"ti... explains it, & makes it plain: All processes are inconstant.
... vibhajati uttānī-karoti "sabbe saṅkhārā dukkhā"ti... explains it, & makes it plain: All processes are stressful.
... vibhajati uttānī-karoti "sabbe dhammā anattā"ti... explains it, & makes it plain: All phenomena are not-self.
Vibhajati can be defined as 'to explain in detail and analytically'. The Buddha did not need to teach the mature individuals in detail, as they understood the basic of the Dhamma easily. For example, the Venerable Assaji explained Buddha Dhamma in one verse.
Ye dhamma hetuppa bhavatesam hetum tathagato ahatesanca yo nirodhoevam vadi maha samano.
Hearing that verse was enough for the Venerable Sariputta to attain Sotapatti.
The first moment of this supermundane consciousness is termed Stream-entry (sotapatti) and the person who experiences it is a Stream-winner (sotapanna). [Path and Fruit (Sister Ayya Khema)]
Teaching an individual and teaching an audience are different. An audience is usually a mix of maturity. The Buddha would teach the crowd appropriately, using the appropriate amount of words and length of time. When some individuals in an audience needed further explanation, they sought the elders.
While such brief teachings would escape the understanding of the great majority of the monks, those disciples with sharp faculties of wisdom could readily fathom their meaning. Under such circumstances the ordinary monks, reluctant to trouble their Master with requests for an explanation, would turn for clarification to the senior disciples whose comprehension of the Dhamma had already been confirmed by the Blessed One. So important did this function become in the early Sangha that the Buddha himself established a separate category of eminent disciples called “the foremost of those who analyse in detail the meaning of what was stated (by me) in brief.”
That was how the Buddha created the Sangha's role by letting the elders explain the detail to the juniors.
2.0.4. Venerable Mahākaccāna: the foremost analytical reasoner
aggaṃ saṅkhittena bhāsitassa vitthārena atthaṃ vibhajantānaṃ the foremost of those who analyse in detail the meaning of what was stated in brief (by the Buddha) vibhajjavāda :
[m.] the religion of reason; the religion of analytical reasoning.
vibhajjaādi : a Vibhajjavādo, an analytical reasoner
vibhajantānaṃ:
vibhajitum:
[5]: It happened that the Buddha, having briefly explained the Dharma, went back to his cell. Then, doubting that they understood well, the monks went to Kātyāyana to ask him to explain the words of the Teacher, for, they thought: “This Venerable Mahākātyāyana, praised by the Teacher and venerated by his wise colleagues is able to explain fully the meaning” (ayaṃ kho āyasmā Mahākaccāno Satthu c’eva saṃvaṇṇito sambhāvito ca viññūnaṃ sabrahmacārīṇāṃ, pahoti c’āyasmā Mahākaccāno imassa Bhagavatā saṅkhittena uddesassa uddiṭṭhassa vitthārena atthaṃ avibhattassa vitthārena atthaṃ vibhajitum): cf. Majjhima,I, p. 110; III, p. 194, 223; Anguttara, V, p. 256, 259–260. See also Vimalakīrtidnirdeśa, French transl., p. 164–165
To teach in detail analytically, the Buddha is a Vibhajjavādi (
Vibhajjavādo), and so are the elders.
The
Venerable Mahākātyāyana (महाकात्यायन) was given the title '
the foremost of those who analyse in detail the meaning of what was stated in brief' by the Buddha. The
Mahāprajñāpāramitāśāstra recognises him as Mahākātyāyana:
The Mahāprajñāpāramitāśāstra says: “Mahākātyāyana, during the lifetime of the Buddha, explained the words of the Buddha and made a Pi le (Peṭaka), ‘box-collection’ in the Ts’in language (Chinee), which, until today, is used in southern India.”
The earlier Mahayanist scriptures recognising the arhats is important. One who accepts the authenticity of the earlier scriptures should reject the later scriptures that downgraded the arhats.
2.0.5. Kalyana Mitta (Spiritual Friend):
[Venerable Ananda] said that “half of the good life” is friendship with good people (kalyanamitta), companionship with good people, closeness with good people, only to be corrected by the Buddha that these are not half but actually the whole of the good life (SN. 45v.2). [Friendship, the Whole of Life Well-lived (Janet Surrey and Charles Hallisey)]
the Buddha replied that having good friendship is not half but rather the whole of the holy life. Bhikkhus who associate with kalyanamittas progress along the Noble Eightfold Path – a fact that applies to lay people as well. [Kalyanamitta – Good Friends]
Narada Maha Thera - Morality (sila)
- Right Speech, Right Action, Right Livelihood;
- Concentration (samadhi)
- Right Effort, Right Mindfulness, Right Concentration;
- Wisdom (pañña)
- Right Understanding, Right Thoughts;
- Noble Eightfold Path has three categories—Sila, Samadhi, Panna.
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2024.05.03 08:55 PLUTO_HAS_COME_BACK Vibhajjavāda and Sarvāstivāda: Analysing the Heart Sutra from Theravadin Perspective—Part 1
Namo tassa bhagavato arahato Samma-sambuddhassa
Homage to the Blessed One, the Worthy One, the Supremely Enlightened One ! Khīnam purānam navam natthi sambhavam - Viratta cittā āyatike bhavasmim
Te khīnabījā avirūlhicchandā - Nibbanti dhīrā yathā’yam padīpo
Idam pi sanghe ratanam panītam - Etena saccena suvatthi hotu
The liberated ones’ old kamma is destroyed with no more growing
The Arahants fade out - Just as this lamp has done
in this sangha is this precious jewel
By this truth may there be well-being!
(
Buddha Meditation Centre Saskatoon)
ABSTRACT
This study compared Vibhajjavada and Sarvastivada by comparing their scriptures and refuted the five theses of Mahadeva downgrading the arahants, from the Vibhajjavadi perspective. The origin of Mahayanist texts are unclear, as their authors are concealed behind speculation. Nevertheless, they follow the Mahadeva's five points to promote the bodhisattva ideal. The popular Mahayanist belief is the bodhisattvas postpone their own enlightenment until all beings are liberated. According to Mahayanist sutras, which contradict each other to some extent, Bodhisattvas may only propagate Mahayana and only the Buddhas emancipate the beings. The goal of Mahayana is everyone must become a Buddha. Millions have become bodhisattvas and Buddhas, who are on their missions of emancipation but they are not heard or seen by the oridinary people. These sutras promote a form of eternalism (sassatavada) and a type of annihilationism (uccedavada). The Heart Sutra (Prajñāpāramitāhṛdayasūtra) promotes a bodhisattva to the Buddha level and a God-like figure. Thus, the Mahayanist scriptures are closer to the Vedas than to the Dhamma-Vinaya Sasana established by the historical Buddha. A Sammasambuddha is an arahant and a
Vibhajjavādi (
Vibhajjavādo: one who practices analytical reasoning). After His 45 year career, the Buddha left us with the Dhamma as our teacher. With the respect for the Buddha and the Dhamma, the elders have preserved the Dhamma-Vinaya Sasana for 2,500 years so that all the Buddha's followers may access the unconditioned peace, Nibbāna.
1.0. INTRODUCTION: the Background:
Ye dhamma hetuppa bhavatesam hetum tathagato ahatesanca yo nirodhoevam vadi maha samano.
Prince Siddhatta was born in the Solar Dynasty (Suriyavamsa) in
563 624-623 BC. He became a Sammasambuddha in
(528)
588 BC. He established
the Dhamma-Vinaya Sasana, the religion of the Buddhists, and the Sangha, the keeper of Buddhism. He spoke the Dhamma in the Pali dialect of the Prakrit language.
Thera in Pali is a senior bhikkhu with "10 years from his upasampadā." The Pitakas were compiled during the Buddha's lifetime. After the Buddha's Parinibbána in
483 544-543 BC [
But all the traditional views, except the traditions of Ceylon and Burma, do not have sufficiently strong evidences in their support (Jainism in Buddhist Literature)] , Venerable Mahakassapa Thera organised 500 elders and held
the First Buddhist Council, which (re)compiled and categorised some of the Buddha's teachings and established the Sangha Sasana (Theravada/Sthaviravada), as the Dhamma itself is the arbitor. Sangha Sasana merely relays the Dhamma, without individuals adding their own philosophies.
"Enough, Vakkali! What is there to see in this vile body? He who sees Dhamma, Vakkali, sees me; he who sees me sees Dhamma. Truly seeing Dhamma, one sees me; seeing me one sees Dhamma."-SN 22.87
After some time passed, schisms occurred because people from different philosophical backgrounds entered the Sangha and created different religious ideologies. The Sangha, the keepers of
the Dhamma-Vinaya Sasana, shed these ideologies in the future Buddhist Councils. Pacittiya 70 prohibits the bhikkhus from associating "with a samanera who develops erroneous views [page53
The manual of the bhikkhu]."
The rebel groups adopted the prohibited Sanskrit "
the language of the Vedic revelation (śruti)" and "
put the word of the Buddhas into (Sanskrit) verse." To prohibit the Sanskrit, the Buddha said,
The Dharma is a living reality. The words used to transmit it should be the words used daily by the people. I do not want the teaching to be transmitted in a language that can be understood by only a few scholars.. I want all my disciples, both ordained and lay, to study and practice the Dharma in their native tongues [Pali, Burmese...].
Sanskrit is essential to learn from the Sanskrit literature of Brahmanism, to fit within Brahmanist society and to have influence on it.
[According to the Mahāvaitulya mahāsannipāta (T. 397), they were the Sarvāstivādins, who] read, recited, copied and spoke about non-Buddhist texts, received [the doctrine] concerning the existence of [the dharmas] of the three time periods [past, present and future] and of internal and external [dharmas ...]
Mahayana innitially emerged from the first schism of Devadatta. His followers (
the Vajjian monks) continued to split the Dhamma-Vinaya and the Sangha. They portrays the ex-seer Devadatta as a bodhisattva in the chapter 12 of the Lotus Sutra (
100 B.C. - 200 A.D.). The development of the Mahayanist scripture probably began after the second Sangha Council (also known as
the Sattasati and the Yasatthera Sangiti).
The eight most senior theras led the second council and rejected the corrupt Vajjian monks for their breach of the ten Vinaya rules, including the use of gold and silver, and the intake of the forbidden food and drinks. These Vajjian monks left the Sangha with their hatred of the arahants. The heart of Mahāyāna/Sarvāstivāda is Prajñāpāramitāhṛdayasūtra, the mini version of the
Mahāprajñāpāramitāsūtra, demonstrates the Sarvāstivādi ideals: downgrading the arahants and promoting the bodhisattvas. They formed the first Mahayanist sect known as the
Mahasanghika and created many Mahayanist vehicles, such as
Bodhisattvayāna, Tantrāyāna and Mantrāyāna.
The rebelious Mahasarnghikas created a new religion (Mahāyāna/Sarvāstivāda) based on the existing over a long stretch of time. After bringing the Sanskrit into Mahayana, the widespread use of the Bramanical practices became easier.
The Mahasarnghikas worked out a primitive, and rather unsystematic, scheme in the Mahavastu. Later the Dasahhumika, c. A.D. 100, the Bodhisattvabhumi, c. 400, and the Madhyamakdvatara, c. 650, worked out a neater arrangement, which has become classical in Mahayana tradition. Our Sutra stands halfway between the earlier and the final arrangement...[Conze, Large Sutra, 23. as quoted in No Turning Back: The Concept of Irreversibility in Indian Mahayana Literature, Peter James Gilks - page 20 (2010, thesis - ANU Australia)]
The
Mahāprajñāpāramitāsūtra (
100 B.C. - 100 A.D.) is considered to be the
oldest sutra."
The Short Prajnaparamita Texts were composed in India between 100 BC and AD 600. [Perfect Wisdom: Prajnaparamita Texts (Edward Conze)]
In Prajñāpāramitāhṛdayasūtra (the Heart Sutra), Subhuti the protagonist became Avalokiteśvara. Both sutras place the Venerable Sariputta in the same supporting role. Avalokiteśvara is also known as Padmapani and Siva (Shiva).
[Avalokiteshvara Padmapani, Pakistan (Swat Valley) (The Met):] Bodhisattva as the lotus-bearer Padmapani was a favored form of Avalokiteshvara [...] The antelope skin over his shoulder is a reminder of his ascetic nature, akin to Shiva.
- The Heart Sutra is a mantra. It follows Brahmanic tradition of using om and svaha for the divine worship.
[Heart (The Buddhist Centre):] om namo bhagavatyai aryaprajnaparamitayai aryavalokitesvaro bodhisattvo
"You Brahmin priests with your fancy fire sacrifices aren't the only ones who get people to heaven. We can do it without killing animals and wasting trees. So there."
- The Mahayanist/Sarvāstivādi monks took sufficient time to develope new concepts to be well designed and believable in order to abandon fire sacrifice.
- Chanting the Heart Sutra mantra is to get to heaven without fire sacrifice. In practice, it is chanted for success and gain.
- The Heart Sutra portrays the domination of other religions over the Theravada. Downgrading the arahants is a direct attack on the the elders as an attempt to discredit them. And promoting the bodhisattva ideals is to prevent the Buddhist populations from attaining various stages of Nibbána, Namarupa pariccheda ñana (knowledge of the distinction between body/mind), for example.
In
Sariputtatthera Vatthu, the Buddha declared:
Verse 392: If from somebody one should learn the Teaching of the Buddha, he should respectfully pay homage to that teacher, as a brahmin worships the sacrificial fire.
The Buddha's instruction became the backbone of the Theravada. However, neither fire sacrifice nor another way of devine worship is the original part of the Dhamma-Vinaya.
According to
Wayman (1978)),
Śrīmālā-sūtra was the first to adopt
Mahādeva's five theses (points) downgrading the arhat. Mahayanist hierarchical structure presented in the Lankavatara Sutra places arhats at the fifth stage and bodhisattvas at the sixth to the tenth stages. That justifies a tenth-stage Avalokiteśvara bodhisatva teaching an arhat.
The Heart Sutra effectively executes these five points, which divided the Mahāsāṃghika sect. That schism led to the development of Mahayanist traditions without arahants.
Since the reputation of the great arahants of early Buddhism never entirely vanished, arahants still play a certain role in some sects of Mahāyāna and are regarded at least as equal to bodhisattvas of the sixth plane, bhūmi.
These sutras adopted the term "Sound Hearers (
voice-hearer)" and later defined it as arhats who "are incapable of genuine and equal enlightenment"— for example,
[Buddhāvataṃsaka Sūtra (The Flower Adornment Sutra)] All of these were states of Universal Worthy Bodhisattva's wisdom-eye; they had nothing in common with the Two Vehicles...these great disciples had relied on the Sound Hearer Vehicle to escape... They forsook living beings and dwelt in their own affairs... Which is why ... they could not behold such vast great spiritual penetrations.
Those authors put all arahants under these five points, but could not destroy Mahayanist texts that recognise the true nature of arahants; for example,
Mahāprajñāpāramitāśāstra says,
Mahākātyāyana, during the lifetime of the Buddha, explained the words of the Buddha and made a Pi le (Peṭaka).
In earlier development, Mahayana even downgraded the Buddha in the Bloodstream Sermon. According to Bodhidharma,
anyone can become a buddha by living an idle lifestyle. "A Buddha is an idle person...
Bodhidharma, who hated the arhats, is considered an expert in the Lankavatara Sutra (
The Sutra of the Ten Stages). However, he did not know his
Sutra of the Ten Stages recognises the
Sugata Buddha as an arhat.
[Lanka Chapter 1:] Then said Mahamati the Bodhisattva-Mahasattva: O blessed One, Sugata, Arhat and Fully-Enlightened One, pray tell us about the realization of Noble Wisdom
According Red Pine [
Heart (Red, page 8)], the shastras were composed by "the later followers of the Buddha:
They included a work by Dharmashri (c. 100 B.c.), another by Upashanta (c. A.D. 28o), and a third by Dharmatrata (c. A.D. 320). These three shastras were considered essential reading for members of the Sarvāstivādi sect, and they eventually formed the basis of an Abhidharma school in China.
The Heart Sutra, which was not considered essential, might be composed much later than the essential sutras.
The dates of the sutras are approximate only. These dates indicate how the Mahayanists took several hundred years to compose the first Mahayanist sutras—much more time than the Buddha's entire career. And the Mahayanists came up with a totally different ideology that distinguishes Mahayana from Theravada but identical to the Vedas traditions.
The Sarvāstivādi sutras provide new concepts and meanings, such as:
- Dharmakaya: Dharma-body (Buddha-lands, etc.)
- Anuttara: the fundamental reality underneath the whole Universe, emptiness, fullness
- Anuttarā samyak-saṃbodhi: unexcelled perfect enlightenment;
- The ten-stage Nirvana
- Tathāgatagarbha: Tathāgata womb
- Ālaya-vijñāna: the Universal Mind, storehouse consciousness or the one eternal mind
- Buddha-dhàtu: Buddha-svabhāva, the Buddha-nature—was developed to support Bodhisattvayāna.
[Breakthrough Sermon, Bodhidharma:] The Sutra of the Ten Stages [Lankavatara] says, “In the body of mortals is the indestructible buddha-nature.
This study aims to understand Vibhajjavāda and Sarvāstivāda by comparing their scriptures and analysing the main concepts found in these scriptures in reference to Vibhajjavāda. An analysis on the Heart Sutra would reveal how Mahadeva's five points are incorrect and baseless.
A Mahayanist/
Sarvāstivādi sutra cannot be understood in isolation but in comparing with other Sarvāstivādi sutras in the Vibhajjavādi context. The Sarvāstivādi monks, in writing the Heart Sutra, must only follow the Sarvāstivādi approaches found in the Sarvāstivādi scripture, such as the
Mahāprajñāpāramitāsūtra, the
Lankavatara-Sutra and the
Lotus-Sutra.
This work presents Vibhajjavādin scripture and thought first, followed by Sarvāstivāda and analysis of the Heart Sutra in Mahayanist and Theravadin contexts.
1.1. Main links used in this work:
- New Heart Sutra translation by Thich Nhat Hanh; cited as [Heart (Thich)]
- The Heart Sutra as recited in the Triratna Buddhist Community (Sanskrit), The Buddhist Centre; [Heart (Centre):]
- Heart Sutra (Shippensburg University); [Heart (Uni)]
- Heart Sutra, [Heart (Dharmanet)],
- Heart Sutra Red Pine; [Heart (Red)]
- Heart Sutra, The longer version (Wiki);
- THE PRAJNA PARAMITA HEART SUTRA Hsuan Hua
- The Ratnaguna-samcayagatha compare with Aṣtasāhasrikā (Avalokiteśvara is not present)
- Gayatri Mantra: a reference for the Heart Sutra mantra and the seer (Devadatta in a past life) in the Lotus Sutra Chapter 12; "Gayatri mantra is said to be the essence of all mantras;"
- Maha Prajnaparamita Sastra Full (200 A.D.) By Nagarjuna
- Avalokiteśvara appears once among other bodhisattvas, see page 38
- Maha Prajnaparamita Sastra 1 Gelongma Karma Migme Chodron (PDF)
- Maha Prajnaparamita Sastra 2 Gelongma Karma Migme Chödrön (web pages)
- Appendix 3 - Why the Bodhisattva Avalokiteśvara is so named: all these creatures have only to hear the name of the bodhisattva Avalokiteśvara to be freed from this great mass of suffering.
- Mahāprajñāpāramitāśāstra
- The Lankavatara Sutra (400 A.D.) (translated by Suzuki and Goddard); cited as [Lanka Chapter 1:]
- Introduction to the Lankavatara Sutra (D.T. Suzuki)
- link 2
- Lanka (Red Pine)
- Wonderful Dharma Lotus Sutra (100 B.C. - 200 A.D.) — Saddharma Pundarika Sutra, Translated into Chinese during the Yil, Tson Dynasty by Kumarajiva, Translated into English by the Buddhist Text Translation Society; cited as [Lotus Chapter 1:];
- Lotus Sutra The Buddhist Text Translation Society in USA
- Compassionate Lotus Sutra — Karuna Pundarika Sutra, Volume 6, The 4th Section of Chapter 4, Dharmaraksa
- Aṣtasāhasrikā Prajñāpāramitā Sūtra (Avalokiteśvara not present)
- Conze, n.d., 18 (Avalokiteśvara not present)
- THE DIAMOND SUTRA: THE PERFECTION OF WISDOM Red Pine
- The Bloodstream Sermon Red Pine
- Why Did the Buddhists Adopt Sanskrit? Vincent Eltschinger (2017, 323)
- [Vasubandhu (Jonathan C. Gold)] — quoted in chapter 5.1.
Vibhajjavādi texts were taken from various websites for the Tipitaka (Sutta, Vinaya, Abhidhamma, commentary);
- The Great Chronicle of Buddhas Ven. Mingun Sayadaw [Chronicle of Buddhas (Mingun)]
- The Great Chronicle of Buddhas PDF
- Abhidhamma In Daily Life Ashin Janakabhivamsa; PDF; [Abhidhamma (Janakabhivamsa)]
- Part 4 - How Rebirth Consciousness Appears
- A Manual of Abhidhamma Nàrada Mahà Thera
- The Buddhist Monastic Code I Thanissaro Bhikkhu
- PATICCASAMUPPADA
- The Doctrine of Paticcasamuppada
- A Discourse on Paticcasamuppada
- Guide to Tipitaka: Canonical Pâli Buddhist Literature of the Theravâda School U Ko Lay
- Concise Pali-English Dictionary A.P. Buddhadatta Mahathera
- Pāli Dictionary
- Theravada glossary
- BUDDHIST DICTIONARY
- พจนานุกรมพุทธศาสตร์ ฉบับประมวลธรรม 佛 教 词 典 (Pali Terms)
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2024.05.02 14:20 Rasputin_98 I apologise, dark souls 2 is actually very good
I have made 2 pots critizing the game this week. I continued playing the game, ITS pretty good actually. I was following a quote of rushed games like Sekiro and Bloodborne, lies of p, then when I started ds2 it felt like a downgrade so big that I raged. But after I got acquainted, the pace felt better. I was so used to a certain approach, fought malenia, orphan, laurence, ishin, alaxia dozens of times on previous monthes that the mobs on ds2 fellt out of place and cheap, I didnt had the patience. Actually the gang attacks along the way to the boss are harder then the boss itself, which felt weird. I Just killed the snake lady on the posion swamp in 3 tries and I am very into the game now. Sorry for the last posts by the way.
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2024.05.02 14:20 Rasputin_98 I apologise, this game is actually very good
I have made 2 pots critizing the game this week. I continued playing the game, ITS pretty good actually. I was following a quote of rushed games like Sekiro and Bloodborne, lies of p, then when I started ds2 it felt like a downgrade so big that I raged. But after I got acquainted, the pace felt better. I was so used to a certain approach, fought malenia, orphan, laurence, ishin, alaxia dozens of times on previous monthes that the mobs on ds2 fellt out of place and cheap, I didnt had the patience. Actually the gang attacks along the way to the boss are harder then the boss itself, which felt weird. I Just killed the snake lady on the posion swamp in 3 tries and I am very into the game now. Sorry for the last posts by the way.
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2024.05.02 01:50 GamerGriffin548 Mech Discussion - The Champion
| It's so fitting that after the Cicada and Charger, you get the middle point between them: The Champion. A mech so unbelievably mediocre that its impressive to reach such a middle ground of effective and straight up lame. This mech started these discussion posts. I thought lowly of this wannabe aerospace fighter on legs. I thought it was ineffective as a mech, ugly, a death trap, and that it deserved special treatment just to make it desirable like it's the nerdy girl in a 90s teen romance movie. After all this time: It's not bad. But... A 60-ton mech is to be your more mobile scout and flanking mech that can tank for brief moments in time or provide covering fire while your lance sneaks into position. At a maximum of 81kph for all models, the Champion is just as fast as a some Dragon and Quickdraw models. Some of its mobility is better in other aspects and lacking completely in others. So what's it's "deal"? Why choose this over a Dragon or Quickdraw? Quickdraw is better than them both in most ways and the Dragon is easily second place while the Champion is easily out classed by both where it matters for players. Then there's the Rifleman who knows secretly it's the best 60-tonner with no contest. In truth: There is no reason other than you just want to for shits and giggles. The Champion is very different from them in most terms and can make a certain player feel more comfortable with its limited loadout and simplistic arrangement. Between the 1N, 1N2, and 2N is a hardly noticeable difference. They are all nearly the same, despite the 2N reduces the ballistic slot to a medium and the other two can carry a large. But it's the same with its missile slots and energy slots with them all being mediums. These three make the Champion so undesirable in MW5 with its sparse models that aren't even that different. They can be found out in wilds in rare quantities which makes it further undesirable as a player will find what works better before even seeing it in a store. I'd would have liked to see PGI make some custom models of their own just to spice it up. Maybe a more energy aligned model? Imagine six medium lasers around the cockpit with two medium missile slots in the torsos. Or maybe a Periphery rebuild that is just gnarly as all hell? Downgraded engine, two large energy slots in the torsos and medium ballistic in the CT? Lots of potential to make this goofy mech just a bit more desirable to the players. It's all it needs. Speaking of potential. The last model - the 1NB. Not spectacular, but definitely the best Champion in the game. The one I can't seem to get from the last Hazing of the Weak mission for some reason. Shake my fist to the sky and all that. The 1NB is simply the ComStar model. A large ballistic slot and a large energy slot in the torsos with a slightly lighter chassis (28 tons compared to the other three's 31 tons). It carries itself well enough and it can pump the damage out from range. Good sniper mech. (I think it shows up in the final campaign mission battles and then as a rare mech in the stores after it, but don't quote me on that.) The Champion is like the Cicada in most respects. It has barely any balance to its design. Doing too much for so little without having a clear purpose for what it is even doing. Like the Charger, the Champion is of the lighter class it's apart of but doesn't fit well in that class as a heavy mech. You just have a fat medium mech with stars in its cockpit glass. And... that's why I like it now. It takes an exceptional player to see its flaws and make it work properly. I thought it wouldn't work in a fight, but after some time I learned to work with its limitations. The AI ain't half bad in it either and since it carries all three weapon types, decent armor, runs hot, and goes decently fast it's a good training mech for your pilots. Something I noticed while testing it: It's surprisingly durable sometimes. The compact body, the broad useless arms, and thin hitbox makes it spongy like a Stalker, unusually tanky like a Thunderbolt, and harder to hit like a Flea. These combos don't always work, but I've definitely noticed it in a time or two. I want to like it for what it's supposed to do, but I only like it as what it tries to do. And what more can you ask of mech that looks like a child who took dad's military models apart and reassembled them with Elmer's glue? Anyway, that's all from me today. I'm still a little sick from yesterday, so I hope you enjoy reading this. I'm going to go take medicine and sleep. Yay or Nay on at least trying it? What short of loadout do you think a Champion could carry for you to like it, if you choose nay? If yay, what does it do for you to like it? Next time - The soldier mech that everyone loves across the Inner Sphere, the Centurion. submitted by GamerGriffin548 to Mechwarrior5 [link] [comments] |
2024.05.01 07:30 raytoei Barron's (29th April): Lululemon Stock Could Trip Because Leggings Are Out (article link, preview and quotes inside)
( Please downvote if you do not want to see such articles. Please do not downvote because you do not agree with the article)
(disclosure: i do not have a position in Lulu)
Title:
Lululemon Stock Could Trip Because Leggings Are Out
By Sabrina Escobar
April 29, 2024
Article Link:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/lululemon-stock-downgrade-leggings-denim-307e8291?mod=djem_b_Weekly%20Barrons%20feed%20for%20last%2024%20hours Article Preview:
https://www.reddit.com/useraytoei/comments/1che7i1/barrons_lululemon_stock_could_trip_because/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Quotes:
. . . . .
Here’s the latest fashion newsflash: younger Americans are swapping out skinny jeans for oversize, baggy pants.
That could hurt companies such as Lululemon Athletica while giving a sales boost to denim-based retailers, Barclays says, as shoppers spend less on form-fitting leggings.
. . . . .
Long-term, athleisure still has room to run as people continue to prioritize wellness and casual apparel, Yih added, and Lululemon will likely remain a leader in the space. But the shift in silhouettes means the company may need to pivot some of its core offerings to adjust to the new style demands—and that may take more than a few quarters to execute, she wrote.
. . . . .
Yih’s analysis echoes recent comments made by longtime Lululemon bear Randal Konik, an analyst at Jefferies. Earlier in April, Konik noted that interest for wide-leg pants rose 21% year-over-year in 2023, which poses a risk for Lululemon given that this fashion trend is outside of the company’s core
. . . . .
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