Hope you all enjoy the show! (Fair warning, it's very long)
We start off as a flashback during early Ancient Egypt times, where Mothra was flying over the deserts, peacefully scattering her godly lights over man and animal alike, bowing down to her in reverence and becoming docile respectively, before she senses a disturbance somewhere. She rushes over to it, and sees Abaddon (using my idea for him, a huge-ass Dragonfly with a functional mouth, a stinger tail, and the forelimbs of a Praying Mantis) using his swarm to hunt for food.
Mothra dispels the swarm and attacks Abaddon with her God Rays, with Abaddon territorially attacking the Queen, and Mothra, in a show of stubbornness, engaging his challenge, and both insectoid Titans engaged in a brutal aerial battle as the Ancient Egyptians watched. It looked as it was going well for the more nimble Mothra, until Abaddon trapped Mothra in his raptorial forelimbs, brutally slamming and dragging her across the sands, before he lifted her and raised his stinger. It cuts to the Ancient Egyptians, who gasp and look on in horror as the sound of a sharp object and crunching sounds fill the air. Abaddon drops Mothra's lifeless corpse as he flies away, having satiated his hunger, while the screen zooms in on Mothra's eye. Whatever epic opening your mind makes happens, before the title lights up.
We follow Ilene Andrews (Rebecca Hall) and her surrogate daughter Jia (Kaylee Hottle) again, this time joined with the Chen Twins, Dr. Ilene and Dr. Ling (both played by Zhang Ziyi) as Jia dreams about Mothra…'s hatching, that is. That's right, sometime after the battle in Rio de Janeiro, Mothra has flown to the Borneo Jungle and laid an egg there, and the main cast arrive to witness it in person, and naturally, when the larva hatches, it was a magnificent sight for all involved. When the night falls and Jia goes to sleep in the Borneo Outpost, she once again shares a dream with Mothra, joined by the Chen Twins, due to their history with the Queen… until the dream started going out of control, wildly flashing and prophesying, among other things, a high-pitched whining sound, unblinking red eyes, the earth collapsing, and darkness enveloping the skies.
Everyone in the dream, from where they are, wake up in a cold sweat, until they get an urgent call that the Mothra Larva was displaying an unnatural and out of character level of agitation, proven correct when they see the slightly nervous Mothra pulsating yellow and orange, before breaking free of her containment and vanishing into the forest. It was pretty easily seen that something big was about to go down if Mothra of all Titans was getting upset. And soon enough, it looked like it came true when a devastating earthquake shook a large part of Asia, splitting the ground asunder and causing ruin, all while energy signatures shows Mothra venturing into Hollow Earth. At this point, the humans knew something was up. So it was decided, one team, with Dr. Ilene Chen, would stay up on the Surface World and monitor any more earthquakes or disturbances, and another, with Dr. Ling, and newcomers to the series Lance Gibson (Donny Lucas) and Scarlet Wilde (Emilia Clarke) would venture into Hollow Earth to keep track of Mothra.
As Team Hollow Earth follows Mothra, understanding that she is sensing something they don't, they keep a close eye on her. Mothra continues making a beeline, hauling ass towards wherever, until she enters a foggy quarry and sees a flashing light that comes closer to her, causing Mothra to tense up, until the fog dispels and she sees… Battra. The flashing light was his horn, and Mothra, seeing this larva that shares the same similarities to her, softens up. Team Hollow Earth were stunned at seeing another Moth Titan, especially with scans showing they share the same genetic material. Mothra appears to be slightly taller than Battra, with Lance suggesting the possibility of them being siblings, and Mothra having hatched first, something that everybody agrees on. Battra has sensed Mothra's presence and vice-versa, with the Queen of the Monsters being visibly overjoyed to be an older sister. Until Battra's horn glows red, and he glows in agitation, before beckoning Mothra to follow him, and the humans trail after them.
Mothra and Battra's venture in the rest of Hollow Earth lead to the Moth Siblings getting ambushed by a large and aggressive Praying Mantis Sub-Titan called a Scymantis. Battra, who has never been in a serious battle before, was scared and hid behind Mothra, who fortunately, did know how to fight. Mothra does battle with the Scymantis, and Mothra, filled with a huge protective big sister instinct, had actually led to her killing the Scymantis, a move that stuns everyone watching, even Mothra herself, though she quickly collects herself and continues on to follow Battra's signal. Both Moth Siblings take a breather in a large beautiful grassy plain, where they see large glowing aphid-like creatures called Flight Lights, one of whom Mothra grabs and directs it's abdomen to her mouth, before eating in a delicious (to her) substance like an ant eating honeydew from an aphid. Battra tries to do the same as his sister, but he doesn't know how to, which visibly saddens him. Mothra, seeing the trouble her younger brother is facing, teaches him how to properly eat from a Flight Light, and does so properly, causing him to light up in happiness.
Meanwhile, with Team Surface World, Monarch is helping the areas of Asia that has been led to ruin by the earthquake, when they see the skies slightly darkening, something they identify to be a sign that Abaddon is arriving. Sure enough, he does indeed show up, his swarm following him. Abaddon was highly aggressive, something that confuses the Monarch team up above, until Abaddon reaches in and pulls out a huge insectoid Titan. The humans back away as Abaddon engages in a battle with the creature, before killing it, and feasting on it. Abaddon leaves, but the humans are left to ponder at what came out. Back in Hollow Earth, the Moth Siblings a large chasm in the ground, going several kilometers down, called the Gaping Maw. The Moth Siblings leap down the chasm, falling underneath and dispelling a veil of natural steam, with the humans following them, until they reach the bottom.
Mothra bravely treads ahead, while Battra cautiously trails behind her, his horn staying red. Until the humans manage to direct the two of them to a veil of what looked like webbing, with Scarlet confirming it not belonging to the Moth Titans. Both Moths rip it open, and see a huge hive, all filled to the brim with Meganulons, almost all of whom stop and stare at them. Battra was nervous, but Mothra crawled forward. Up until she sees a Meganulon about to fall to its death, at which point she rushes forward with no hesitation and saves it. As the Meganulon stared at her in what looked like awe and wonder, a loud screeching is heard, and all the Meganulons back away as both Moth Siblings. Battra looked terrified, while Mothra was defiant, as the Queen of the Meganulons, Megaguirus, emerged and hovered down to greet the newcomers.
Megaguirus sniffed Mothra out with her antennae, and understood that she came from the Surface World, which is good news for her, seeing as she wants to expand her hive. Until she sensed something else on the Surface. One of her own was dead, murdered. The same one that Abaddon killed. Furious at one of her brood's death, Megaguirus engaged the Moth Siblings in battle (yes, she treats her subjects with remarkably more respect and kindness that Skar King). Mothra valiantly fought her, even as a larva, while protecting the terrified Battra. While it looked like Mothra was doing well, Megaguirus, due to being mature, being incredibly speedy, having razor-sharp wings, and able to fly, managed to overpower her, grappling her in a deadly lock with her pincers and stinger tail, and even absorbing Mothra's energy with her stinger. Battra was scared, but upon seeing Mothra struggling, he decided to charge in and his horn lights up with yellow electrical (what looks like it, anyway) energy, and using it to force Megaguirus off of Mothra, who tag teams the Meganulon Queen and slams her to the ground.
They would have continued, if not for Megaguirus' wings glowing and letting out a roar. Suddenly, the ground erupted, and out came Megalon, whom Megaguirus treated almost like a brother, with Megalon in turn, being unfailingly loyal to her. And so, used his abilities over the earth to severely injure Mothra and Battra, forcing them to retreat. As the humans escape the Gaping Maw and bring the two Moth Titans to a secluded but humongous cavern to rest, the humans found ancient tunnels with writings of an ancient tribe, explaining that their God, Megalon, created the Vile Vortexes to Hollow Earth, but after getting touched by a "Golden Ray of Light", he had become destructive after meeting Megaguirus, a "kindred spirit", and have a solution should they ever attack the world. Unbeknownst to them, the Moth Siblings found that solution: a huge influx of Hollow Earth radiation, not only healing their wounds, but supercharging them, and accelerating their growth. When the humans finally notice the blinding lights behind them, they saw the double cocoons, and the literal blinding beauty of both Moth Siblings gracefully emerge in their Imago Forms.
Battra was amazed at his new form, while Mothra makes a dash and flies out, zooming out. Meanwhile, Battra flies back into the Gaping Maw to keep an eye on the Meganulons, he sees that Megaguirus is on the move, with Megalon and a crap-ton of Meganulon Warrior drones to assist her in her invasion of the Surface World. Battra flies back to the humans and warns this to Jia, who relays it to the humans, until Lance asks where the hell Mothra went to, with Scarlet bringing up scans revealing she went to the Surface. Back up in the Surface World, the team there reads Mothra's signatures erupting as she flies out, but she is making a straight beeline for a specific Titan. To Abaddon. Mothra is directly provoking him to get him to follow her to combat this threat, which worries Dr. Ling, seeing as she was aware of what Abaddon was capable of. Sure enough, the two Insect Titans collide in Bangladesh, where a furious Abaddon engages the challenging Mothra in combat once again. It seems as if history is going to repeat, until Battra steps in between the downed Mothra and Abaddon, and explains the situation. Abaddon was motionless for a few moments, before he backs off and follows Mothra and Battra to Hollow Earth.
With Team Hollow Earth, they were now tasked with holding the line between Megaguirus' forces, and the Vile Vortexes to the Surface World until Mothra comes back, knowing that they're in big trouble if they manage to get there. While this happens, Battra and Abaddon get into some skirmishes about one-upping the other due to Battra's newfound confidence with his powers and Abaddon's dislike of anything moth, but manage to hold it in enough to get to their destination. Soon enough, the three insectoid Titans arrive at the battlefield, where they charge in as Megaguirus and her forces do to. Mothra engages in a dogfight with Megaguirus, Battra attacks Megalon on the ground, and Abaddon makes some snacks out of the Meganulons, as the humans attempt to both escape and join in on the fight. During the brawl, Megalon manages to make the ground unstable enough for him to fall into a Vile Vortex, causing the other Titans (and humans) to follow suit.
In the Surface World, all the combatants find themselves in Barcelona, Spain. Megaguirus commands her hive with a high-pitched whining to arrive, with Megaguirus' absorption of Mothra's ability darkening the sky in a huge electrical superstorm, one Meganulon almost grabbing the humans, until Abaddon swoops in to save them, and the Moth Siblings follow suit. Their battles takes them to the Garrotxa Volcanic Zone. During the clash of insects, Battra realized brute force wasn't going to work on Megalon, so he continued beating down the huge beetle, until he grabbed the fatigued Megalon, and aerial suplexed him, making the ground give way and having him plummet to the depths of the earth. Now without her biggest ally, Megaguirus attacks more furiously, but fails when both Moth Siblings tag-team her with slashes and stabs, as Battra amplifies Mothra's own abilities, when Mothra grabs her and stares her down. Megaguirus roars defiantly, which is when Mothra flies up to the superstorm and throws Megaguirus in there, electrocuting her, before Mothra slams Megaguirus down on one of the volcanoes, immolating her to death. Both Moth Siblings and Abaddon roar triumphantly as Mothra uses her God Rays to dispel the superstorm. Mothra looks at Abaddon, who seems to give her and Battra a look of respect, before he flies off.
Mothra is seen patrolling over the skies of the Amazon Rainforest, until she is greeted by Battra, as both the Moth Siblings exchange a cute little bioluminescent show of affection towards each other. Both teams of humans watch as Mothra and Battra fly off, casting a bigger light than the sun, and fade to white as the ending scene before credits roll.

What really happened is 1 of the 4 dispatchers is a little twat who singled me out for whatever reason his tiny little brain could muster. On my first day by myself I was inspecting the van I was assigned to, pos had a broken sliding door. I told Mr. Mediocre dispatcher who was initially going to put me in another van, and then he body slammed the door until it opened and sent me on my way. Needless to say that decision fucked me all day long, at one point the door go so stuck that it took me and some random dude checking his mail to open it. Next day was pretty good, it was only my second day though so as instructed by the real Amazon employees I took my time and prioritized organization and accuracy but still got done in about six hours including breaks. Third day I was assigned to a route with 20 additional stops and the main road was being torn up and repaved, it’s also a route that’s notoriously known for backtracking. Despite all that I finished at exactly the same time as I did the day before. Mind you, I’ve been asking the other dispatchers how I’ve been doing and they show me the graph blah blah and they all tell me I’m doing fine, that my pace is a little slow but everybody’s pace is a little slow in the beginning and that the entire point of the nursery routes is to gradually increase the pace and the amount of stops simultaneously. Fourth day, once again 20 additional stops were added to my route. I was held up for about 30 minutes at an illegally operated casino, called dispatch let them know blah blah blah. 1:47pm I took my lunch, clocked back in at 2:17 and started heading to the next stop. At 2:22 I got a phone call from the twatty dispatch that disrupted my navigation, made me miss my turn, and forced me to pull over. “what’s going on?” “What do you mean?” “You’ve been stationary for 30 minutes” “I know, I just took my lunch and I’m on my way to my next stop” “That’s not what it said in the flex app” “I clocked out in ADP, I didn’t realize I was supposed to use the flex app for lunch, I thought I was only supposed to use it for the 15’s because those breaks are paid and lunch isn’t.” chuckles “okay”
An hour later I’m in a group chat that was started by Mr. Twatty Pants and he’s chewing me out over my arrival time to my first stop after lunch. As I was reading it I immediately realized that the mf set me up. He deliberately waited to call me until after I started moving because he knew I would have to pull over, he knew it would delay me, and he knew it would look like I was just sitting on the side of the road for 7 minutes to anybody else looking at the computer screen. This mf also made it seem like I took a break before I even started delivering!!! In reality there’s a gas station that everybody in my dsp stops at to use the bathroom in the morning otw to our delivery area smh. I’m also pretty sure he didn’t tell the owner about me not knowing about using the flex app for lunch, he definitely didn’t tell him about the van with the broken door that he knowingly allowed me to use for my route.
Anyways idk what all he said to the owner but he basically convinced him that I fuck off all day, and that I can’t be trusted in the van so I got yeeted before starting what would have been my fifth route.

Strategy Set Up
This strategy is inspired by ideas from the book “High Probability ETF Trading: 7 Professional Strategies to Improve Your ETF Trading”, written by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez.
In this book, both authors show us the use of the short RSI as an indicator to obtain precise overbought and oversold signals .
Basically, the system gives an entry signal when the value of the 3-period RSI falls below 20 , and gives an exit signal when the same RSI crosses above 60 . We trade on a daily chart and always open/close trades at the next day's open.
As you can see, they are very simple rules. And I love simple systems. In fact, most of the winning systems that I have studied are very simple, made up of 3 conditions at most.
We will choose the Nasdaq index in its ETF version “QQQ” as the asset to operate due to its bullish nature. For this same reason, we will discard short operations.

▶️ Entry rule

RSI(3) < 20

▶️ Exit rule

RSI(3) > 60
Pine Script Programming
The code to program and simulate this strategy in TradingView is also very simple. Practically, there are 4 lines of code:

Example
Let's see the strategy in action.
Below, I share with you a screenshot of the QQQ ETF graph on a daily basis, with the respective entry and exit signals indicated with arrows of different colors.
https://preview.redd.it/1pl2bbldi10d1.png?width=789&format=png&auto=webp&s=475797ebb87f9f3edb80ced408baa373c533412d

• Blue candle -> Indicates entry.
• Red candle -> Indicates exit.

For this period that I show you of just over 4 months, the system carries out 4 operations (all of them winning).
And the success rate for this mean reversion system is quite high, approaching 70% success. Win 7 out of 10 operations.
The average time per operation is 5 days . For example, the first operation lasts 9 days; During the first 7 days the price continues to fall slightly... but a comeback in the last 2 days manages to close the operation in positive.
Let's also look at the last operation, how the RSI nails the oversold level to enter at the lowest point and come out positive on the third day.
Historical performance
And how has this system worked historically?
Starting from an initial capital of $50,000, and a period of application from the birth of this ETF (at the beginning of 1999) until the day of publication of this article (July 2023), we see that it has achieved a total return of 1114.18 % , that is, about $557,092.13.
https://preview.redd.it/b94pkf5ji10d1.png?width=982&format=png&auto=webp&s=467e706beecc29351ca2c984ad61e2a526c2eb5b
Added to the initial 50,000, it gives us a total account of $607,092.13.
The profitability (green graph) greatly exceeds the "buy & hold" strategy (blue line). We will discuss it in the next section.
We observed a total of 248 operations carried out, 69.76% of them winning . The average profit per operation has been about $2,246.34 and the profit factor , that is, what we earn per dollar lost, is $2.33.
Comparison
What would have happened if we had bought the ETF in early 1999 (when it was born) and held the position to this day?
With 50 thousand dollars invested we would have obtained a return close to 650% , this in dollars translates into about 325,000 dollars, which added to the initial capital gives us about 375,000 dollars in account. About half of what the strategy gets .
Let's compare returns:
$557,092.13 (strategy) > $325,000 (buy&hold).
We therefore confirm that our strategy based on the RSI indicator beats the ETF.
Weak points
Let's now comment on a couple of negative points.
For the simulation we have not taken into account commissions and slippage. This obviously penalizes the final profitability and it depends on each broker (and their commissions) whether the strategy is worthwhile and can continue to beat the index.
Another negative point is the drawdown, the maximum capital drop that the simulation experiences. It is a point that could be improved, since it is close to 40%. That is, at some point, with this system we lose 40% of our capital , so it is not suitable for people with high risk aversion.
For example, we could add some stop loss mechanism, although sacrificing profit to smooth out the drawdown. Although mean reversion systems do not like the use of stop losses too much. It is a matter of finding the balance between loss of profitability and an acceptable drawdown .
Final words
With this article I want to emphasize two things.
The first is that, as we have seen, we do not need to complicate our lives with strategies with a thousand indicators, exotic formulas, complex combinations of factors, etc. to obtain good results . We have seen that, simply, with a buy and a sell condition (and a single indicator) we have been able to beat the Nasdaq QQQ ETF since its inception.
The second is that, as you have seen, TradingView is a fantastic tool for backtesting automatic strategies.
I hope this article has been of interest to you, and we'll see you in the next one.
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Good evening everyone. Long time lurker first time caller here. I got my house in spring of 2021 and with it space to be able to plant and grow things. I started off like with a lot eagerness but zero knowledge. I am in Colorado 6A.
After finding this place and other subs on Reddit I decided the best way forward was to get a soil testing kit to even see what could be grown. The results said that I have basically fill dirt and no nutrients. Talking to the neighbor and Google Earth maps told me the previous residents had an above ground pool at some point and a small hoardering problem. After listening to a coworker who "knew stuff" I decided to try and use the first year amending the ground where I wanted to make beds. Excitement got the best of me and I landed volcanic soil and a tiller from Amazon.
I tried planting a variety of things a few months later and learned my first of many lessons. Outside beds take way more water than indoor plants do! Oopsie poopsie.
Last year I tried again with my amended beds and actual watering to some success. Corn and cherry tomatoes (thanks pepper gate for getting tomatoes too) and corn were had! While I like to say I took this small victory with grace, I may, allegedly, have gone and gotten the large survey measuring tape from harbor freight and a pad of graph paper to fully plan out my attack for this year.
Now that the backstory is done we come to my problem. After doing some research into what native pollinator plants to plant I seeded the yard and have been quasi patiently waiting to plant my vegetable seeds. I went out to start prepping the beds and ran across this new friend. It is growing in a part of the yard that I haven't touched yet. Google images tell me it is a tree onion. Please, smart people of gardening help me identify my new found friend.

In 1981 President Ronald Reagan fired a large contingency of air traffic controllers after agreeing to give them a 33% pay raise, 11% a year over the next three years. PATCO had asked for an even larger raise, thirty two hour work-weeks and to be exempt from multiple civil service clauses and engaged in a public strike to try to achieve these aims. After asking the controllers to return to work, Reagan invoked title 5 U.S.C. 7311 which prohibits any civil servant from engaging in a strike against the government. This title is upheld by the Federal Labor Relations Authority which ought to consist of three impartial bodies, each from a different political party (more on this later). The political climate of this time was very much akin to ours, inflation was quickly growing and the public sector jobs were having trouble keeping up with the pay of other private employers. Quality of life for controllers was dwindling and aviation was booming rapidly. Looking at flight data for around that time commercial flights amongst air carriers was lower than what it is now and the number of controllers was very similar to what we have now - the key difference however is that cargo was a much smaller piece of the aviation pie than it is today. Only 10% of the controller workforce didn't participate in the strike and the government took military controllers from their posts and moved them to the FAA to help curtail the impact felt from the loss of controllers. The FAA felt extremely confident that the impacts would be mitigated after only about two years but real time data shows that staffing levels didn't recover until a full decade after the firings of the controllers. The FAA also claimed that they were able to maintain 50% of the regular flight schedule.
https://preview.redd.it/blpgik7f7vzc1.png?width=1547&format=png&auto=webp&s=7aca206f6e9cddf61ec98320754f5acc2d097e93
A quick look at this graph shows the precipitous crash of passenger flights throughout the early 1980s but the most important takeaway from this graph is the tremendous harm to the contribution of the GDP of the United States that air travel represents for the next five years afterwards. Fast forward to today and aviation is even more intrinsically tied to the GDP. Statistics show that aviation supports 4.1% of the worldwide GDP, and in America that figure represents 5% of the GDP to the tune of 1.4 trillion dollars. Recently released FAA figures indicate that there are approximately 14,000 controllers. Mathematically that means that each controller from the lowliest tower to the busiest facility helps to facilitate $100,000,000 of economic stimulation every year. Over the course of a career that means that each air traffic controller has helped to ensure billions of dollars are moved safely in our great nation. We are very valuable, that much goes without say. This year however the Fed estimates that the GDP growth will slow down to 1.8%, down from an estimated 6% growth. Any adverse action against air traffic control will invariably lead to a years long recession in a country where inflation is growing rampantly. That's the power that we hold collectively and that's why the strikes are so successful in other countries. An air traffic strike in this day and age however would likely be a battle of public opinion as it would affect other powerful unions (pilots, flight attendants) and mega corporations (UPS, Amazon), who would likely overwhelmingly prefer we be compensated and go back to the boards rather than risk the economic damages that having to retrain an entire generation of controllers would ensue. A generation that has been critically understaffed, and who are having trouble attracting and keeping qualified candidates as is. The only thing stopping us is that pesky title 5. This is where things get deeper though as currently the FLRA that enforces such actions only has 2 of 3 appointees, basically ensuring a 50/50 toss up between the Republican appointee and the Democratic appointee. Interestingly the Democratic appointee is someone by the name of Susan Grundmann, who previously acted as the counsel to our very own National Air Traffic Controllers Association. What this means is that if we were to ever entertain the idea of a strike she would likely have to recuse herself leaving Trump's appointee Colleen Kiko as the only person to decide our fates, obviously ensuring that we would lose any and all litigation. The only way to feasibly strike would be to try to sue for our ability to do so, something which PATCO tried to do unsuccessfully in the 80s. This is why being fiscally responsible and ensuring we have a war chest is extremely important. Instead of frivolously spending our dues on nonsense like open bar tabs and extravagant conventions NATCA should be pursuing any and all avenues to try to reinvigorate our workforce and give us the power to truly exercise our rights as workers.

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AWS Amplify is a set of tools and services provided by Amazon Web Services (AWS) that make it easier for developers to build, deploy, and manage web and mobile applications. Amplify includes a range of features such as:

• Authentication: Authentication allows you to add user sign-up, sign-in, and access control to your app. Amplify supports authentication through Amazon Cognito.
• API: Amplify allows you to create REST or GraphQL APIs using AWS AppSync or AWS Lambda. Third-party API connections are possible.
• Storage: Amplify provides storage options for your app data, including Amazon S3, AWS DynamoDB, and AWS Lambda.
• Hosting: Amplify allows you to host your web application on AWS, with features such as custom domains, SSL, and CDN.
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• Machine Learning: Amplify includes pre-built machine learning models and tools to help you add machine learning capabilities to your app.

To use Amplify, developers can install the Amplify CLI, which provides command-line tools to configure and manage their Amplify backend resources. Amplify also provides a set of libraries for popular web and mobile frameworks, such as React, Angular, Ionic, and Flutter, making it easy to integrate Amplify into existing projects.Overall, Amplify simplifies the process of building and deploying modern web and mobile applications, helping developers focus on building features that add value to their users.Get Started with Amplify CLI and Libraries for Popular Frameworks

UPDATED 5/9 @ 3 AM EST
CURRENTLY THERE IS AN X2.5 IN PROGRESS STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. IT MAY NOT BE OVER.
Good evening. While the day has not been what you would call quiet, with a big X flare and CME again, it was a little quieter than the days before. It is currently around 9 PM EST and X-Ray flux is bouncing around but mostly hovering between high C and low M levels, which does speak to significant background activity and indicates that a big flare could come at any time. However, if it does not occur within the next 12 hours or so, it would have a hard time catching up with the existing CMEs in the pipeline. The X1 and CME from earlier today does appear to have a minor earth directed component, but it appears to be pretty weak comparatively speaking and not very fast. It's likely to arrive separately, but we wait and see for model guidance.
I find myself here with writer's block after just banging away on this keyboard all day but I am going to power through this. Here is what we know.

• No less than 4 distinct CMEs are headed our way stemming from long duration high M and low X class flares slated to arrive over the weekend
• Current official forecast is for up to G4 or Kp8 levels, however some models suggest a high end parameter of Kp9 so we will consider that in the range of outcomes.
• At this time, it is not widely expected that there will be significant disruption or damage from this storm, but it should be noted how dynamic and variable the setup is. Is.
• A Carrington Event does NOT appear to be in the works. AR3664 will rotate away from a geoeffective location in the next 24 to 48 hours or so.If no major flares happen in the next 24 hours, we can probably put those concerns to rest. The existing storm is still formidable, but probably not at dangerous levels.
• There does appear to be a substantial sunspot group that will rotate onto the earth facing side in the coming days which I will get into later in this article.

Geomagnetic Storm Forecast/Prediction - 5/10-5/13
As I write this, the last model run for the ENLIL Spiral which forecasts CME direction, velocity, and density, was at 13:00 UTC which is quite dated at this point. We have 4 distinct waves of plasma launched from the sun over the last 48 hours or so. It appears that the first 3 will congeal into a single wave and arrive at the same time. This would be the cannibalization effect. It appears the biggest event stemmed from the double peaked X1 & M9.8 that occurred late yesterday afternoon (EST). The fourth wave looks like it will arrive the following day or so.
I am having trouble downloading the video of the model, so here is the link. The bonus is when you click it, if there is an update, it will show you the most recent. Here is a snapshot though. It appears as only 3 waves because the first two combine nearly instantly. I am mainly focusing on the DONKI scorecard which is also linked below.
https://preview.redd.it/1kxlcnc3aizc1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3a2c2b2b9f8dfdfaec6b418d0a5853a3799e172
https://preview.redd.it/d82hfna4aizc1.png?width=513&format=png&auto=webp&s=4339ff57c3de20e63671ea000bfa4ee69b65499b
The official NOAA forecast as it stands now is as follows.
https://preview.redd.it/u4vycct5aizc1.png?width=494&format=png&auto=webp&s=789a23fe6d051ee82f9b19ff473ba1258865a3d9
They are showing an upper parameter of Kp8+. The DONKI scorecard is showing a max range between Kp 8-9 for multiple CMEs. The scorecard is too large to attach, but I will include the link. It is important to remember how many variables and unknowns there are. We measure the CME when they leave the sun and we detect them when they arrive, but for the long journey from sun to earth, we are essentially blind. That is not such a big deal when its only 1 CME being modeled since we can detect its density and velocity upon ejection from the sun and feed it into the models. In this case we have several major (but not scary) CMEs that launched in pretty quick succession at varying velocity.
Asking the models to nail this forecast, when they can hardly accurately predict garden variety events in many cases seems like a big ask. As a result, the overall details are pretty solid. We know what left the sun, we just don’t know how exactly it will recombine. There is a scenario here where we don't even get to G3 conditions. We will just have to take it as it comes. They all suggest that Kp9 is well within the realm of possibility, and with it the potential for a G5 storm, which would be the first since Halloween storms of 2003 when a similar scenario unfolded, but the magnitude of flares was dramatically higher, but less geoeffective in their trajectory and thank goodness for that. This is NOT that, but G5 is in the cards and wont surprise anyone if it comes to pass.
Even so, a G5 storm does not equal Carrington Event. There is no upper bound for a G5. Technically the Carrington Event and Halloween 2003 were both G5 events, but clearly there is a massive difference. It should be noted that this is also the first G4 watch since 2005. Anyway you shake it, this is extraordinary, but not unprecedented.
Bottom line - The possibility for disruption does exist, but is not likely at high or widespread levels. The range of outcomes is higher than normal due to overall complexity and dynamics of the event. Its simply rare to see this many CMEs come our way so quickly. As a result I recommend being prepared as you would for a long duration weather event. Just make sure you are good for 3 days, and you can rest easy.
What Path Exists For a Catastrophic Event?
In my humble opinion, in order for us to need to worry about Carrington 2.0, the sun will have to produce a big X-Class flare with extremely high velocity overnight, allowing it to catch up with the existing and combine. The other scenario is a new CME event altogether that fires off before AR3664 departs, but still geoeffective enough to hit us. In order for this scenario to take place, nothing short of an X10, and probably higher, would be needed to even remotely approach those kind of levels. In short, the risk for this type of thing in general is rapidly shrinking. We still need to take the existing storm in the pipeline seriously, as it is quite rare, and has a wide range of outcomes, but overall I would say there is a 99.5% chance you are going to work on Monday.
What Next?
The possibility for an aurora sighting is rising if you live in the mid latitudes or possibly even lower this weekend. I will just tell you that personally, I am excited about this weekend. Observers at every level are going to have some amazing opportunities to not just possibly see the aurora, but to observe and learn in general. I am going to stay very plugged in during the storm if possible and learn as much as I can because events like this are rare and we will get to see it unfold in real time. Its quite possible that decades later, we will all talk about the great solar storm of May 2024 and our experience so I intend to make it as meaningful as possible. I will be on the lookout for any danger or concerns and will continue updating through the weekend.
Speaking of the aurora. I am going to post an image of the potential ranges of the auroras corresponding to the different Kp levels. Before I do that, I am also going to tell you that its outdated and inaccurate, because the aurora is sighted below these boundaries during much weaker events on a fairly regular basis, but thats a topic for another day on our magnetic field. For now, we focus on whats immediately in front of us.
https://preview.redd.it/shjbugigaizc1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=57a1d1695ffe20897878da0b64f5222834b39a02
As mentioned, there are some new active regions that will be rotating into view. I have been watching them using the limited farside tools out there, and it does appear that one group in particular is growing in size and complexity. I do believe that this particular group of sunspots have made several rotations and have been responsible for some big flares including X-Class, but I cant confirm that until they actually come back into view. They are circled in red below.
Sun Farside
Long after this event comes and goes, I will be right here, watching and learning and sharing everything I can. We will be doing a full post mortem on this particular event and I look forward to incorporating the new discoveries in my understanding and maybe even yours as well. I will see you in the morning with an update.
Also, make sure to take care of yourself during all of this. There are no shortage of existential threats facing us it would seem, and beyond that, most people I know have something or another they are struggling with in their personal life. I know I certainly do. The sun has a powerful effect on us, and everything else on this planet, and in this solar system, and even a little beyond that. The links between solar activity and the mental and physical health of humans is not well understood or defined, but it definitely exists. The way I understand it, and this is my own personal view, is that solar activity as well as other similar processes like the Schumann Resonance have a constant effect on us. However, having an effect is not the same as dictating terms. I think the sun amplifies existing energies within us, either positive or negative. If you have mental health disorders such as anxiety, depression, bipolar, etc, the energy flux could amplify it, especially if you are not aware that it can. I think the best course of action is to simply be and think positive. The sun is light and life itself. Lean into it, not away from it. I have learned in life that there is truly something to the art of “manifesting”. Manifest good things, good energy and good feelings, and try to keep the bad in perspective.
And keep in mind that this is a totally natural process. If the Carrington Event 2.0 happens tomorrow, and causes massive devastation of our electrical, network, and critical infrastructure and it leads to a civilization collapse, just remember that a remote tribe in the amazon rainforest or somewhere similar will hardly even know anything happened. It's not the sun that is the problem, it’s our reliance on technology and modern convenience.
Special thanks to everyone who has interacted with these posts and joined solarmax. It was a tiny respectable community of 300 people or so, but has nearly doubled in the past 24 hours. I am touched beyond words and am grateful for every comment and word of encouragement. To the regulars, you guys rock.