The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.
By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
My hunch for a disappointing set of USD inflation data was incorrect, as traders enjoyed a double dose of softer inflation and retail sales figures. Even if data was mostly in line with expectations. Core CPI slowed to its slowest pace since April 2021 at 3.6% y/y, or 0.3% m/m – both as expected. Retail sales slowed to 0.3% m/m, compared to 0.4% prior and expected. Core retail sales was downgraded to 0.9% m/m from 1.1% although reached the 0.2% estimate. Whilst this is a step in the right direction, it should be remembered that prices are still rising and consumers are still spending.
Fed member Goolsbee added to the excitement of cuts by saying that “if decreases in housing inflation seen in April CPI data continues, that’s great”. Yet annual inflation levels remain well above the Fed’s 2% target, and we may have some more bumps in the road before they hit it. Still, for now traders got what they wanted, and that weighed on US yields and the dollar overnight.

USD dollar technical analysis:

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The US dollar index suffered its worst day of the year to safely claim ‘weakest FX major’ currency of the day. All of April’s gains have evaporated with May now on track for a bearish engulfing month at current levels. And if US data continues to soften, even modestly, bets are on for two 25bp Fed cuts this year.
However, the daily chart shows that support was found almost perfectly at the 200-day average, just beneath the Q3 open. Trend support is also nearby, in close proximity to the 104 handle and high-volume node. Furthermore, the daily RSI (2) is oversold. So whilst the monthly and weekly charts points to a lower US dollar, bears may want to trad with caution around current levels with so much support nearby.
Click the website link below to get our Guide to central banks and interest rates in Q2 2024.
https://www.forex.com/en-us/market-outlooks-2024/q2-central-banks-outlook/
https://preview.redd.it/ns3nq025bo0d1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=64ed60941f1beb7fbff2ccb57873241548056c83

• Fed fund futures are now implying a 52.7% chance of a 25bp in September (or a 99.3% chance of a cut by September)
• Wall Street wasted no time sending indices higher with the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 all reaching new record highs
• The ASX 200 futures market (SPI 200) tracked Wall Street higher overnight and shows the potential to reach the 7866 target mentioned in yesterday’s report
• The US dollar was the weakest FX major, sending the USD index beneath the 104.30 target (but is not trying to fund support around its 200-day average)
• EUUSD closed at a 2-month high and is less than 20-pips from testing the 1.09 handle
• AUD/USD broke above its key resistance zone around 0.6650 – 0.6660 to reach a new YTD high
• USD/JPY fell just over 1% to mark its worst day since BOJ interventions, and further losses and move back to at least 152 seem likely with the US dollar bull-case quickly unravelling
• Bitcoin finally enjoyed the bullish range expansion we’ve been waiting for, rising above 66k for the first time in three weeks

Economic events (times in AEST)

• 09:50 – Japan GDP, foreigner stock/bond purchases
• 11:30 – Australia labour market report
• 14:30 – Japan capacity utilisation
• 20:00 – EU Economic Forecasts
• 22:30 – US building permits, housing starts, jobless claims, import/export prices, Philly Fed manufacturing
• 23:15 – US capacity utilisation, industrial production, manufacturing production

Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to AUD/USD trading in Q2 2024.
https://www.forex.com/en-us/market-outlooks-2024/q2-aud-usd-outlook/
https://preview.redd.it/7wlbgepbbo0d1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ee21c318c2b8c32efea94753fcc57470470306d

AUD/USD technical analysis:

The breakout of the Q3 and Q2 open prices were clean and done with conviction on AUD/USD. Prices stalled just beneath the 0.6700 handle and high-volume node from the January decline, so I suspect we may see some fickle price action around these levels early in today’s session. Note that support was found at the Q2 open on the 1-hour chart, which is also near the weekly R2 pivot – making 0.6685 a potential pivotal level for intraday traders.
But with traders on guard for even the slightest whiff of softer US data, AUD/USD could find itself extending its rally and heading for the daily R1 pivot or 0.6726 high should US data lean the ‘dovish’ way later today.
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USD/JPY technical analysis:

After two (or maybe three) BOJ interventions, it seems market forces are now taking USD/JPY the direction the central bank wants; lower. Wednesday’s bearish day saw prices cut through two handles and close below 155, and it now appears set to test 154 sooner than later. However, take note of a high-volume node around current levels which may provide interim support ahead of its next anticipated leg lower. The daily S1 pivot sits just above the 154 handle to make it a zone for bears to keep an eye on, a break beneath which brings 152 into focus.
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-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter
https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/aud-usd-breaks-out-usdjpy-rolls-over-amidst-worst-day-of-2024-for-usd-asian-open-2024-05-16/
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MAY 15th, 2024~Advancing Scandium Use in Metal Alloys for U.S. Weapon System Production and Sustainment

Advancing Scandium Use in Metal Alloys for U.S. Weapon System Production and Sustainment SBIR.gov
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OUSD (R&E) CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Advanced Materials

The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), 22 CFR Parts 120-130, which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services, including export of sensitive technical data, or the Export Administration Regulation (EAR), 15 CFR Parts 730-774, which controls dual use items. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals (FNs), their country(ies) of origin, the type of visa or work permit possessed, and the statement of work (SOW) tasks intended for accomplishment by the FN(s) in accordance with the Announcement. Offerors are advised foreign nationals proposed to perform on this topic may be restricted due to the technical data under US Export Control Laws.

OBJECTIVE: The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) seeks to promote responsive, best value supplies of related materials, components, and systems to Department of Defense (DoD) customers and other DoD stakeholders. DLA investigates advancements in technologies and business processes for new and improved materials, more efficient means of their production, and competitive domestic supply chains which will lead to greater innovation in current and future defense systems combined with benefits to other commercial and government applications.
DLA is interested in exploring future defense industrial base uses for scandium (Sc) because of its unique properties as a pure metal and, as an alloying agent, to significantly increase the performance of traditional aluminum (Al) alloys, and therefore expand the use of Al alloys. Further benefits include, substituting aluminum-scandium (Al-Sc) alloys for incumbent expensive materials (e.g., titanium) and/or replacing material forms that are both costly and difficult to source (e.g., forging, complex machined parts, and extrusions), as Al-Sc alloys are highly compatible with additive manufacturing techniques.
Scandium can impart high strength properties to Al alloys which allows for reduced weight designs (compared to traditional Al alloy) and components for a wide range of defense platforms and other military items. Al-Sc alloys exhibit increased resistance to high temperature and corrosion when compared to common Al alloys. Of further interest, is the high weldability of Al-Sc alloy. Alloys with high weldability can reduce manufacturing labor and other costs associated with joining components and structures. Al-Sc alloy can be especially useful when used as a powder or wire in additive manufacturing. Potential DoD applications for Al-Sc alloy include the production and sustainment of missiles, aircraft, space launch vehicles, satellites, solider systems, military ground vehicles, marine applications, and other weapon systems (e.g., small arms and artillery).
While Sc metal has many attractive material characteristics, its cost is frequently considered prohibitive for Al alloying purposes compared to other alloying elements. In addition, the supply of Sc metal and compounds is limited and highly concentrated in a small number of foreign countries including China and Russia. As such, there is reluctance to develop wide scale uses for Al-Sc alloys for many applications including DoD weapon systems and large-scale non-defense applications (e.g., commercial aviation and automotive manufacturing).

In the United States mining operations for Sc ore are being planned and developed to feed a domestic supply chain and, recently, new sources of Sc now exist in Canada (an important member country of DoD’s National Technology Industrial Base). There are also established defense industrial base companies and other businesses in both countries that can significantly contribute to development and commercialization of Al-Sc supply chains for both military and commercial applications.

Given the important properties of Sc, and in anticipation of increased affordable domestic supply, DLA is interested in engaging small businesses with the capability to develop and expand expertise and industrial base production capacity of Sc-containing materials, especially in areas relevant to the supply of Al-Sc alloy components for DoD end-uses.

Specific materials, processing and manufacturing areas of interest include:

• Raw material refining
• High purity Sc metals, compounds, and alloys
• Additive manufacturing feedstock
• Additively manufactured DoD systems prototype parts

Research and Development (R&D) efforts selected under this topic shall demonstrate and involve a degree of risk where the technical feasibility of the proposed work has not been fully established. Further, proposed efforts must be judged to be at a Technology and/or Manufacturing Readiness Level (TRL/MRL) 6 or less, but greater than TRL/MRL 3 to receive funding consideration.

TRL 3. (Analytical and Experimental Critical Function and/or Characteristic Proof of Concept)
TRL 6. (System/Subsystem Model or Prototype Demonstration in a Relevant Environment)

DESCRIPTION: DLA seeks SBIR project opportunities in new and innovative materials, processing, and manufacturing of Sc compounds, Sc metal, Al-Sc alloy and master alloys, and related areas of additive manufacturing. While Al and Sc are the primary metals of interest for this solicitation, it is anticipated that additional alloying elements may be included to tailor the final alloy properties. Specific areas of interest include:

• Processing mining ores (and/or scrap waste streams) into high purity Sc compounds (ex., Sc-oxide) feedstock for production of pure Sc metal, Al-Sc alloy, master alloys, etc.
• Commercial production of high purity Sc metal (domestic feedstock preferred)
• Commercial production of Al-Sc alloy powder and wire for additive manufacturing
• Demonstrating additively manufactured Al-Sc alloy parts for DoD weapon systems.

DLA seeks opportunities that include strong industry supply chain collaboration with established materials companies relevant to the above areas of interest in Sc materials processing, as well as strong collaboration with traditional or non-traditional DoD weapon systems suppliers. DLA similarly desires SBIR opportunities that include collaboration with interested DoD weapon system program offices and/or relevant DoD RDT&E organizations.

PROJECT DURATION and COST: Proposals exceeding these limits will not be evaluated.
PHASE I: Not to exceed a duration of 12 months and cost of $100,000.
PHASE II: Not to exceed a duration of 24 months and cost of $1,000,000.

PHASE I: Phase I will demonstrate proof of concept in one or more of the above areas of interest in scandium materials and processing. A technology development and commercialization roadmap will be produced along with a preliminary business case analysis for transition and industrial scale up. Strong industry supply chain collaboration with established materials companies relevant to the above areas of interest in scandium materials and processing is expected, along with involvement of one or more traditional or non-traditional DoD weapon systems suppliers. Strong support from one or more interested DoD weapon system program offices and/or relevant DoD RDT&E organization required.

PHASE II: Depending on Phase I results, Phase II will consist of establishing pilot scale or low-rate production of technologies that are successfully demonstrated in Phase I. Additional activities may include further materials and processing testing, characterization, and data base development of related materials and processes that can be used by future producers of scandium materials of interest (e.g., compounds, metals, alloys, and master alloys as well as related additive manufacturing powders and wire, and fabricators of aluminum scandium end-items). Development of a detailed business case analysis and commercialization plan will be required.

Strong industry supply chain collaboration with established materials companies relevant to the above areas of interest in scandium materials and processing, along with involvement from traditional and/or non-traditional DoD weapon systems suppliers, is required, along with strong support from interested DoD weapon system program offices and/or relevant DoD RDT&E organizations.

Innovative materials and processes, and commercially viable sources of their supply, shall be developed with the goal to readily transition to production in support of DoD and its supply chains.
PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS: Phase III is any proposal that derives from, extends or completes a transition from a Phase I or II project. Phase III proposals will be accepted after the completion of Phase I and or Phase II projects.
There is no specific funding associated with Phase III, except Phase III is not allowed to use SBISTTR coded funding. Any other type of funding is allowed.
Phase III proposal Submission. Phase III proposals are emailed directly to DLA SBIR2@dla.mil. The PMO team will set up evaluations and coordinate the funding and contracting actions depending on the outcome of the evaluations. A Phase III proposal should follow the same format as Phase II for the content and format. There are, however, no limitations to the amount of funding requested, or the period of performance. All other guidelines apply.

Transition Plan

1. Period of Performance: TBD
2. Budget: $ TBD

This Phase of the project should include:

1. Delivery of a production level product to J68 ready for integration into the overall DLA Enterprise system.
   
2. Develop a sustainment plan to support the delivered system for the lifetime of the program.
   

REFERENCES:

1. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey

Jones, R.; Peng, D.; Ang, A.; Aston, R.W.; Schoenborn, N.D.; Phan, N.D. A Comparison of the Damage Tolerance of AA7075-T6, AA2024-T3, and Boeing Space, Intelligence, and Weapons Systems AM-Built LPBF Scalmalloy. Aerospace 2023, 10, 733.

https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace10080733

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1. Conclusions Noting that AA7075-T6 is widely used by both fixed- and rotary-wing military aircraft, as well as in space structures, the initial objective of this study was to directly compare crack growth in identical AA7075-T6 and Scalmalloy specimens tested in the same servohydraulic facility under the same stresses and by the same operators. The experimental data reveal that Boeing Space, Intelligence, and Weapons Systems AM-built Scalmalloy appears to be more damage tolerant than the conventionally built aluminium alloy AA7075-T6. As a result, Boeing Space, Intelligence, and Weapons Systems printed Scalmalloy would appear to be particularly attractive for use on a range of military aircraft, as well as for space applications. It also highlights the potential for Boeing Space, Intelligence, and Weapons Systems Scalmalloy to be used to extend the operational lives of military aircraft through the on-demand printing of limited life Scalmalloy replacement parts. The results of this initial test program have led to the hypothesis that the da/dN versus ∆K curves associated with Scalmalloy and conventionally built AA2024-T3 should be similar. This hypothesis was, subsequently, validated by comparison to AA2024-T3 da/dN versus ∆K curves taken from the Nasgro database. This observation subsequently led to the conjecture that the small crack da/dN versus ∆K curves associated with Scalmalloy and AA2024-T3, which are needed for a durability analysis, should be similar. If this hypothesis can be confirmed, then given that: (i) Scalmalloy has a yield stress significantly greater than that of AA2024-T3; (ii) AA2024-T3 is widely used in both fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft; (iii) MIL-STD-1530D mandates that there must be no yield at 100% DLL and the US Joint Services Structural Guidelines JSSG2006 states that there should be no yield at 115% DLL, the use of Scalmalloy for both fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft, and drones would appear to be very attractive. As such, the next stage in the study will involve the determination of valid upper bound da/dN versus ∆K curves for the growth of short cracks in AA2024-T3.

GIVEN ONCE FINANCED:

ON Sept. 28, 2023~ NioCorp ANNOUNCES Plans to Produce Made-in-USA Scandium Master Alloy to Supply Lightweight Parts to Vehicles

NioCorp Plans to Produce Made-in-USA Scandium Master Alloy to Supply Lightweight Parts to Vehicles NioCorp Developments Ltd.
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NioCorp Now Working With Automakers To Develop Aluminum-Scandium Vehicle Parts That Are Stronger, Lighter, Higher-Performing, and Fully Recyclable
Prototype Aluminum-Scandium Alloy Parts Have Dual Uses in Commercial and Military Applications
EV/Hybrid Sales Forecasts Predict Tens of Millions of Units Globally By 2030^\1]), Underscoring the Importance of Bringing New Sources of Non-Chinese and Non-Russian Scandium Supply Online, NioCorp Says
CENTENNIAL, Colo. (August 14, 2023) – A phased program to establish U.S. commercial production of aluminum-scandium (“AlSc”) master alloy took another step forward recently as NioCorp Developments Ltd. (“NioCorp” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ:NB) (TSX:NB) and its development partner Nanoscale Powders LLC (“Nanoscale”) successfully produced scandium metal at pilot-scale at a facility owned and operated by Creative Engineers in Pennsylvania.
The next step in the pilot-scale program is to produce kilogram-sized ingots of AlSc master alloy for independent testing and commercial product samples. The first of these AlSc master alloy ingots is expected to be produced in the coming weeks.

Three-Phase Commercialization Program

NioCorp and Nanoscale are pursuing a three-phased development plan for commercial production of AlSc master alloy. The goal of this program is to achieve full-scale AlSc master alloy production at approximately the same time as the Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project (the “Elk Creek Project”) achieves commercial operation and planned production of approximately 100 tonnes per year of scandium oxide.

1. Pilot scale batch production of 10 kilogram master alloy ingots**. Master alloy produced will be fully analyzed (metals and gases) at independent test facilities. Ingot samples will be available for third-party examination and prospective customer testing / sampling.**
2. Commercial demonstration production of 100 kg ingots**. NioCorp expects to perform this work at a third-party ingot casting facility, which is expected to significantly reduce development timelines and cost as well as leverage existing facility permits and operator experience. The objective of this stage will be to optimize the production process and operating conditions.**
3. Full scale commercial production of master alloy**. Assuming successful results at the pilot scale and commercial demonstration stages, and once project financing is obtained, NioCorp intends to secure an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction contractor to construct, start up, and commission a full-scale production facility with the capacity to consume up to the Elk Creek Project’s projected scandium production of approximately 100 tonnes (Sc metal contained in master alloy) per year. NioCorp intends to co-locate the full-scale production facility with the Elk Creek Project in Nebraska in order to take advantage of the infrastructure (i.e., low-cost power, water, and natural gas) that will be in place for mining operations.**

NioCorp and Nanoscale also plan to develop recycling approaches for scrap alloy, including work-in-process material and post-production scrap.
Qualified Persons:
Scott Honan, M.Sc., SME-RM, COO of NioCorp Developments Ltd., a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the technical information and verified the data contained in this news release.

***SEE RESPONSES FROM NIOCORP/JIM SIMS FROM AUGUST 14, 2023 ~Good morning - Jim!

While waiting for Niocorp’s 2023 F.S. Release… The announcement for Scandium Alloy Production & Scandium alloy funding are most welcome!

Leading me to add to my line of questions regarding Scandium & (Niocorp).

A) Would Niocorp qualify for a portion of this recent funding once approved by Congress? Moving forward.
RESPONSE:

"This funding was placed in the FY24 DoD Appropriations bill at the request of Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer, a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, for the purpose of helping to fund NioCorp's effort to establish domestic commercial production of AlSc master alloy. There is always a process within the DoD to select appropriate projects with funding provided to it by Congress. In this case, however, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees provided additional guidance to DoD on this topic in their respective National Defense Authorization bills, including prioritizing domestic production of such materials. "

Next Question ~ For context:

(Imperial mining, CleanTech, & Scandium International all have patents on Scandium & Sc aluminum alloy products. Rio Tinto has established a North American domestic supply(@15 tons/year with expansion capabilities) & has established a working relationship with Boeing.
Niocorp has produced Scandium aluminum with both IBC (under Chris Huskamp now with Jabil) & with Ames Lab, but has yet to patent any process or materials.
Niocorp has established a working relationship with Nanoscale to produce patentable Scandium Aluminum products in the years ahead…)
Jim-
B) How Does/will Niocorp’s expected Scandium production & future patentable Scandium materials be utilized by management moving forward? Once realized…. ; and How do/would they compare to those materials & alloys already developed or patented?
RESPONSE:

"Latent markets for scandium oxide and aluminum-scandium master alloy – both commercial and military -- are quite large, and we are working with a number of potential scandium consumers and related technology companies interested in scandium. We will make announcements in this area as developments require. In general, we don’t comment on detailed commercial business strategies except in the course of necessary announcements and/or public filings. "

C) In addition to Niocorp’s collaboration with NanoScale. Is Niocorp currently working/engaged with other entities such as (Ames Lab, DoD, DoE, Chris Huskamp/Jabil & others) on Scandium Materials/patents?
Or on Niobium, Titanium, or Rare Earth future products (Oxides, Magnets…)
Please comment where possible.
RESPONSE:

"There are multiple such engagements ongoing now for each product in our planned product offering. In general, we don’t comment on commercial business strategies except in the course of necessary announcements and/or public filings. "

D) Are other Entities besides EXIM Bank and Stellantis still interested as possible Debt/Equity finance or Anchor Investos partners moving foward?
Leading to a Final Elk Creek Finance package?
RESPONSE:

"YES!"

FOLLOWING THE TRAIL....

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NIOBIUM, TITANIUM, SCANDIUM & RARE EARTH MINERALS: ~H.R. 2670 - NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2024~ The urgent need to diversify the United States Defense Industrial base to advance domestic capability, production, modernization, and resilience!

CRPT-118hrpt125.pdf (govinfo.gov)

Page #251~Secure Supply of Niobium Oxide

Page # 232 & 233 ~Extraction and Processing Methods of Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals

Page # 223 -224 Aquisition of Titanium

Page # 225-26 ~Aluminum-Scandium Master Alloy Production

The committee recognizes that China is a major producer of high-purity scandium oxide, which has many powerful applications in defense technologies, including strengthening and light-weighting defense and commercial aviation systems. As scandium oxide pro-duction is established in the United States, a missing supply chain component is the conversion of scandium from its oxide form to aluminum-scandium (AlSc) master alloy. This process step is required for utilization of U.S.-mined scandium by many defense applications. At present, production capacity of AlSc master alloy is limited to one facility in the United States. The committee recognizes that the United States may soon become a major producer of highpurity scandium oxide by virtue of a proposed mine and mineral processing project in Nebraska. The committee recognizes the defense-wide importance of a vertical domestic supply chain for both Scandium Oxide and AlSc master alloy and the critical importance of both materials for the production of air-, land-, and sea-based combat systems.
NIOBIUM, TITANIUM, SCANDIUM & RARE EARTH MINERALS: ~H.R. 2670 - NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2024~ The urgent need to diversify the United States Defense Industrial base to advance domestic capability, production, modernization, and resilience!
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AUGUST 9, 2023 ~Nebraska’s U.S. Senator Deb Fischer and Congressman Don Bacon Secure $10 Million in Federal Funding for U.S. Aluminum-Scandium Master Alloy Production~

Nebraska’s U.S. Senator Deb Fischer and Congressman Don Bacon Secure $10 Million in Federal Funding for U.S. Aluminum-Scandium Master Alloy Production NioCorp Developments Ltd.
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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

IMHO- "I think the DoD is still interested! plus...."

All the above BODES WELL FOR NIOCORP & for all the Goodies they will produce -(The Critical Minerals Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Praseodymium, Neodymium, {lus BYPRODUCTS ~CaCO3, MgCO3 & some IRON STUFF~) should Financing be achieved.... !

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FULL STEAM AHEAD NIOCORP! Waiting with many....

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Chico