2024.05.16 01:12 Sweet-Count2557 Best Things to Do in Sherman Tx
Best Things to Do in Sherman Tx Are you ready to embark on an unforgettable adventure in Sherman, TX? Well, buckle up because we've got the ultimate guide to the best things to do in this vibrant city!From exploring wildlife and immersing ourselves in cultural heritage to indulging in craft beers and outdoor recreation, there's something for everyone.Get ready to be captivated by captivating animal displays at the Harber Wildlife Museum or groove to the unique beats at the Sherman Jazz Museum.So, let's dive into the freedom of endless possibilities in Sherman, TX!Key TakeawaysSherman, TX offers a variety of outdoor activities and parks, such as the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge, Herman Baker Park, and Lake Texoma, perfect for nature enthusiasts and outdoor lovers.The city is home to several museums and cultural attractions, including the Harber Wildlife Museum, Sherman Jazz Museum, and Outlaw Trails Museum, providing educational and entertaining experiences for visitors of all ages.Beer enthusiasts can enjoy a visit to breweries and pubs like 903 Brewers and Cellarmans Pub and Brewery, where they can relax, enjoy live music, and taste a variety of flavorful drinks and food.Sherman also offers shopping and dining options, such as Kelly Square, Sherman Town Center, and Sherman Farmers Market, where visitors can explore boutiques, antique stores, eateries, and enjoy delicious meals from local restaurants.Wildlife and NatureWe love exploring the diverse wildlife and natural beauty of Sherman, Texas. When it comes to things to do in Sherman, TX, immersing ourselves in nature is always at the top of our list.One of our favorite spots is the refuge park, where we can encounter a variety of wildlife and plants. Whether we choose to take a hike or go on a photowalk, we're always in awe of the stunning scenery that surrounds us.For a more relaxing experience, we like to spend time by the lake or enjoy a scenic drive to spot birds. The tranquil atmosphere allows us to connect with nature and appreciate the beauty of our surroundings.If we want to learn more about the wildlife in the area, we make sure to stop by the visitors center. The knowledgeable staff is always eager to share information and provide us with a deeper understanding of the local ecosystem.Another must-visit attraction for nature enthusiasts is the Harber Wildlife Museum. With its interesting displays and educational exhibits, it offers a captivating experience for all ages. From learning about different animal species to understanding the importance of conservation, this museum is a treasure trove of knowledge.In Sherman, TX, there's no shortage of opportunities to explore the wonders of wildlife and nature. Whether it's a hike through the refuge park, a visit to the Harber Wildlife Museum, or simply enjoying the peacefulness of the lake, there's something for everyone to enjoy.Museums and Cultural AttractionsWhen it comes to museums and cultural attractions in Sherman, there are plenty of options that offer interactive exhibits for all and captivating displays for everyone.From the Harber Wildlife Museum with its interesting animal displays to the Sherman Jazz Museum that delights jazz enthusiasts and art lovers, there's something for everyone to enjoy.These attractions provide an educational and engaging experience for visitors of all ages, making them a must-visit when exploring Sherman's cultural scene.Interactive Exhibits for AllExplore the Harber Wildlife Museum in Sherman, TX, for an educational and interactive experience with captivating animal displays. This museum offers around 11,000 square feet of interesting exhibits that are perfect for all ages.As you walk through the museum, you'll be greeted by lifelike animal displays that showcase the beauty and diversity of wildlife. Get up close to a towering giraffe, marvel at the intricate details of a roaring lion, and learn about the habitats and behaviors of various species.The museum also provides interactive elements, allowing visitors to engage with the displays and gain a deeper understanding of the animal kingdom. Whether you're a nature enthusiast or simply looking for a fun and educational activity, the Harber Wildlife Museum is sure to captivate your attention.From here, let's move on to explore other captivating displays for everyone.Captivating Displays for EveryoneThere are several captivating museums and cultural attractions in Sherman, TX that offer fascinating displays for everyone to enjoy. One such museum is the Harber Wildlife Museum, located at 4703 Texoma Pkwy. This museum boasts around 11,000 square feet of interesting displays, making it a perfect indoor activity for rainy or cold days. Inside, you'll find captivating animal displays that provide an educational experience for all ages. Another must-visit attraction is the Sherman Jazz Museum, founded in 2010 by Bill Collins. Situated at 201 E Lamar St, this museum is a perfect destination for jazz enthusiasts and art lovers. It features vintage items and unique art, including exhibits showcasing vinyl albums and trumpets. Lastly, the Outlaw Trails Museum, located at 118 W Lamar St, offers a unique experience with exhibits from different eras in history, such as 'Toys through The Years' and Titanic artifacts. See the table below for a summary of these captivating displays:Museum NameLocationDescriptionHarber Wildlife Museum4703 Texoma Pkwy11,000 sq ft of interesting displays. Perfect for rainy or cold days.Sherman Jazz Museum201 E Lamar StVintage items and unique art. Ideal for jazz enthusiasts and art lovers.Outlaw Trails Museum118 W Lamar StExhibits from different eras in history. Unique displays, including Titanic artifacts.Breweries and PubsLet's check out two breweries and pubs in Sherman, TX.903 Brewers: This brewery has been crafting award-winning beers since 2013. Located at 1718 S Elm St, Sherman, TX 75090, it offers a great spot to relax and enjoy live music at night. The atmosphere is laid-back and inviting, making it the perfect place to unwind and enjoy a cold brew. And if you're feeling hungry, they also offer an array of delectable American food to complement your drink. Plus, being situated near outstanding restaurants and downtown spots, you can easily make it a part of your night out in Sherman.Cellarmans Pub and Brewery: Established in 1998, this lively pub is located at 2130 Texoma Pkwy, Sherman, TX 75090. Known for its flavorful sodas and beers, it's a favorite spot for locals and visitors alike. The pub has a romantic vibe, making it a perfect spot for couples to enjoy a night out. Delightful pizzas and a laid-back atmosphere add to the charm. And if beer isn't your drink of choice, they also offer mixed drinks, wines, and fresh options to suit every palate.Water Parks and Outdoor RecreationWater parks and outdoor recreation are a popular choice for visitors in Sherman, Texas. With attractions like the Splash Family Aquatic Center, families can enjoy a refreshing day of fun with spray features, slides, and a lazy river.For those looking for a unique experience, Cypress Lake Ranch offers amazing animal adventures, where visitors can feed and pet farm animals, ride ponies, and even take horseback riding lessons.Water Park Attractions NearbyOne of the water park attractions nearby is the Splash Family Aquatic Center, which offers outdoor fun for visitors of all ages.Dive into the excitement of the water slides, twisting and turning as you race your friends to the bottom.Cool off in the spray features, where water shoots up from the ground and creates a refreshing mist in the air.Take a leisurely float down the lazy river, feeling the gentle current carry you along as you soak up the sun.For the little ones, there's a dedicated play area with shallow pools and interactive water features, ensuring a safe and enjoyable experience for the whole family.With so much to do and explore at the Splash Family Aquatic Center, you're guaranteed a day filled with laughter, relaxation, and endless water-filled adventures.But what're the best water park activities?Best Water Park Activities?We can't wait to try out the thrilling water slides at the Splash Family Aquatic Center! Located at 1121 W Taylor St, Sherman, TX 75092, this outdoor waterpark is designed for visitors of all ages.As we make our way down the slides, we'll feel the rush of excitement and the refreshing splash of water.But the fun doesn't stop there. We can also relax on the lazy river, enjoying a leisurely float while soaking up the sun.And for those looking for a little more adventure, there are spray features and interactive play structures that are sure to keep us entertained.Whether we're seeking a thrilling experience or a relaxing day in the water, the Splash Family Aquatic Center has it all.Shopping and DiningWhile exploring Sherman, a great way to experience the local culture and indulge in delicious cuisine is by visiting the various shopping and dining options available. Here are four must-visit places for shopping and dining in Sherman:Kelly Square: Located at 115 S Travis St, Sherman, TX 75090, this trendy shopping center in Downtown Sherman offers a delightful mix of boutiques, an antique store, and eateries. Hunt for bargains at the antique store and treat yourself to tasty goodies at Fulbellis Restaurant and Bar.Sherman Town Center: Explore this shopping mecca for a wide range of shopping options. Located at a convenient location, it offers a variety of stores to suit every taste and budget. Afterward, satisfy your hunger by enjoying a meal at the Old Iron Post, known for its delicious food.Sherman Farmers Market: For fresh local produce, visit the Sherman Farmers Market. Located in a vibrant atmosphere, this market is a haven for food lovers. Discover a wide array of fruits, vegetables, and other local products to savor the flavors of Sherman.Sherman Antique Mall: If you're looking for unique finds, head to the Sherman Antique Mall. With its extensive collection of antiques and vintage items, this mall is a treasure trove for antique enthusiasts. Browse through the various booths and discover hidden gems from the past.Whether you're in the mood for shopping or dining, Sherman has something for everyone. From trendy shopping centers and vibrant farmers markets to antique malls and delicious eateries, you'll find plenty of options to satisfy your cravings and indulge in a memorable experience.Day Trips and Nearby AttractionsVisiting the charming town of Denison, just a short drive away, is a great way to explore nearby attractions while in Sherman. Denison offers a variety of attractions that cater to different interests and preferences. Whether you're a nature lover, history buff, or adventure seeker, Denison has something for everyone.Day Trips and Nearby AttractionsFrank Buck Zoo GainesvilleEisenhower Birthplace State Historic SiteChickasaw National Recreation AreaHistoric Downtown GainesvilleLake Murray State ParkOne of the top attractions in Denison is the Frank Buck Zoo in Gainesville. This 30-acre zoological park is home to over 130 animals and offers comfortable enclosures that mimic natural habitats. It's a great place to spend a day with family, as there are fun activities and animal encounters, including the chance to feed zebras.For history enthusiasts, the Eisenhower Birthplace State Historic Site is a must-visit. This site preserves the birthplace and childhood home of President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Explore the exhibits and learn about his early life and rise to power.If you're up for a short drive across the border, the Chickasaw National Recreation Area in Oklahoma is worth a visit. This beautiful park features stunning landscapes, natural springs, and opportunities for hiking, camping, and swimming.In downtown Gainesville, you can immerse yourself in history as you stroll through the charming streets. Admire the historic architecture and visit local shops and restaurants.Lastly, nature lovers can explore the beautiful Lake Murray State Park in Oklahoma. This park offers a wide range of outdoor activities, including fishing, boating, hiking, and picnicking. Enjoy the scenic views and relax in nature's embrace.With its diverse range of attractions, Denison provides a perfect day trip from Sherman. Whether you're interested in wildlife, history, or outdoor adventures, Denison has something to offer.Outdoor Activities and ParksOne of the best ways to enjoy the outdoors in Sherman is by exploring the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge. Here are four outdoor activities and parks in Sherman that offer a sense of freedom and adventure:Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge: Immerse yourself in the beauty of nature as you visit this refuge park. Take a leisurely hike or go on a photowalk to capture the stunning landscapes and wildlife. Relax by the lake, where you can enjoy the peaceful ambiance and maybe even spot some birds. Don't forget to stop by the visitors center to learn more about the diverse wildlife that calls this refuge home.Herman Baker Park: If you're looking for a place to indulge in outdoor activities, this park is perfect for you. Go hiking or biking along the scenic trails, surrounded by lush greenery. Take a break and have a picnic with your loved ones, enjoying the fresh air and tranquil atmosphere.Lake Texoma: For water enthusiasts, Lake Texoma is a paradise. Spend a day fishing for bass, catfish, or crappie, or take your boat out for a relaxing cruise on the lake. With its clear blue waters and sandy beaches, it's also a great spot for swimming and sunbathing.Eisenhower State Park: Located just a short drive away from Sherman, this park offers camping and picnicking facilities, allowing you to fully immerse yourself in nature. Explore the hiking trails, go birdwatching, or simply relax by the lake and enjoy the picturesque views.With these outdoor activities and parks, Sherman offers a wide range of opportunities to enjoy the freedom of the outdoors. Whether you prefer hiking through nature reserves, fishing in serene lakes, or simply relaxing in a peaceful park, there's something for everyone to enjoy in Sherman's outdoor spaces.Frequently Asked QuestionsAre Pets Allowed at the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge?Pets aren't allowed at the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge. The refuge is dedicated to preserving the natural habitat and wildlife in the area, so pets could potentially disturb or harm the wildlife. It's important to respect these guidelines to ensure the safety and well-being of the animals.However, there are many other outdoor parks and attractions in Sherman where you can bring your furry friends for some fun and exercise.What Are the Opening Hours of the Harber Wildlife Museum?The opening hours of the Harber Wildlife Museum are from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM, Monday through Friday. However, please note that these hours may be subject to change, so it's always a good idea to check their website or call ahead before planning your visit.The museum offers a fascinating collection of animal displays and is a great educational experience for all ages. Don't miss out on this captivating attraction in Sherman, Texas!Does Cellarmans Pub and Brewery Have a Patio or Outdoor Seating Area?Yes, Cellarmans Pub and Brewery does have a patio or outdoor seating area.It's a lively pub located at 2130 Texoma Pkwy in Sherman, TX.With flavorful sodas and beers, it's a romantic spot for couples with delightful pizzas and a laid-back vibe.You can also enjoy mixed drinks, wines, and fresh beers.Can You Rent Tubes or Floats at the Splash Family Aquatic Center?Yes, you can rent tubes or floats at the Splash Family Aquatic Center.It's a fantastic way to enjoy a refreshing and exciting day in Sherman.The center offers outdoor waterpark fun for visitors of all ages, with spray features, slides, and a lazy river to relax on.Is There a Fee for Parking at Lake Texoma for Fishing and Boating?Yes, there is a fee for parking at Lake Texoma for fishing and boating.The fee helps to maintain the parking areas and facilities at the lake.The amount of the fee can vary depending on the size of the vehicle and the length of time you plan to park.There are different options available, such as daily passes or annual passes, so you can choose the option that best suits your needs.It's important to note that the fee for parking is separate from any other fees or permits that may be required for fishing or boating activities at Lake Texoma.Be sure to check the current fee schedule and any restrictions or regulations before visiting the lake.ConclusionIn conclusion, Sherman, TX offers a diverse range of activities and attractions that cater to everyone's interests. Whether you're a nature lover, history enthusiast, music fan, or simply looking for a fun day out, this vibrant city has something for you.From exploring the beautiful wildlife and nature areas to immersing yourself in the rich cultural heritage, enjoying craft beers at breweries and pubs, or indulging in shopping and dining, Sherman, TX promises an unforgettable experience.So, come and discover all that this amazing city has to offer! submitted by Sweet-Count2557 to worldkidstravel [link] [comments] |
2024.05.15 14:48 PunnyHeals Misrepresentation of house price data by Realtor.ca
TL;DR: submitted by PunnyHeals to newbrunswickcanada [link] [comments]
I have been looking to buy a house for the past several years in the Fredericton area and have been checking the online listings regularly through Realtor.ca since it is the most common real estate listing website used in New Brunswick. What I liked about Realtor.ca was its ability to provide the average sell price for a house every month with graphs that showed the average sell price for a house in Fredericton for the past 12 months and 10 years. Looking for a house for an several years, I felt that I had a good idea of the market conditions and price ranges. My anecdotal evidence was that the average house price was much higher than Realtor.ca’s estimate of 288,300. I wondered if my anecdotal evidence could be supported by data. The objective of this report is to collect list price data from all available listings within the Fredericton area. Once collected, I can take the average price and see if it matches the average price shown by Realtor.ca. **Average/Median Methodology** When you use Realtor.ca, you can filter results by the property type. There are six property type categories: Residential (single family home), condo/strata, vacant land, recreational, multi-family, and agriculture. For each of these property types, the asking price and address were copied into an Excel file. The data was collected on May 10, 2024, and included all listings within Fredericton; duplicate listings were removed. Once all data was collected, the average and median for each property type was calculated (Table 1). I compared my calculated average to the Realtor.ca average to determine if my anecdotal evidence of thinking the average house price was higher than what Realtor.ca said was justified. **Results** There were 107 listings for residential houses (referred simply as “house” in this report), 245 listings for vacant land, 5 listings for recreational, 7 listings for multi-family, 2 listings for agriculture, and 10 listings for condos (Figure 1). The average listing price was $543,878 for houses, $177,026 for land, $227,080 for recreation, $826,100 for multi-family, $829,450 for agriculture, and $317,410 for condos. The median listing price was $474,900 for houses, $64,900 for land, $229,900 for recreation, $799,000 for multi-family, $829,450 for agriculture, and $289,900 for condos (Table 1). **Realtor.ca MLS System Average House Price Claim** When you search for “houses for sale in Fredericton, NB”, you will see the top search results show Realtor.ca. This is not uncommon since Realtor.ca and its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) have the highest number of listings of any other online real estate listing service for the Fredericton, NB, area. Having most real estate listings concentrated on one system can provide users with a general idea of greater market conditions beyond individual listings, such as averages and trends for cities. Realtor.ca provides this data in the form of “Market Price (CAD)” price trends for the past 12 months, and price trends for the past 10 years (Figure 2). These figures are prominently displayed at the end of the first page of the Fredericton real estate listings (URL: https://www.realtor.ca/nb/fredericton/real-estate). This leads us to the first claim by the Realtor.ca MLS system claim and our initial objective of this report. Claim: The average market price in Fredericton sits at $288,300 as of May, 2024. Analysis: When a user views these figures, it is a safe assumption that when a price is displayed, the user is inclined to believe that “Market Price (CAD)” is the average house price in Fredericton. This is further reinforced if the user reads the description above the figures which states: “Use our home price trends to better gauge local market conditions and plan your next move. The graphs below show benchmark or average prices of homes sold in the area. Data generated by MLS® Systems and the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) — Canada’s most advanced tool to gauge local home price levels and trends.” This small paragraph specifically states, “The graphs below show benchmark or average prices of homes sold in the area.” Based off the graphs and their statement, we can safely interpret that Realtor.ca is explicitly saying that the average home price in Fredericton, NB, currently sits at $288,300; leaving no room for interpretation on how the data can be viewed. The reason I wanted to be explicitly clear on this thought process is that if you look back at the results section of this paper (Table 1) and see that the calculated average of all house listings was $543,878, it represents an 88.65% difference. A couple assumptions that could explain this difference are:
Since there is such a large discrepancy in my calculated average and the average from Realtor.ca, I expanded my analysis to other categories. I combined my residential house data set with the other five property types to see if it would alter our initial average and how close it would come to the calculated Realtor.ca average (Table 2). Realtor.ca claims the average house price in Fredericton was $288,300, which seems to be closest to my calculated average for the combination of house and land listings. With the addition of these combinations, it suggests that Realtor.ca calculates average housing price using houses and land listings. Realtor.ca MLS’s claim of the average house price in Fredericton, NB being $288,300 is a misrepresentation of the true market value and conditions. If a company were to calculate averages of an entire real estate market within an area, why would they only include house and land and not the other 4 categories? **Misleading Representations by Realtor.ca** The conclusions made from my analysis were made with plenty of explanations and assumptions. Given that the MLS system is a pay gated system, and their patented house price index algorithms are private, I feel it is reasonable to assume that my data is closer to true market prices. This leads us to the next question, if my data isn’t correct, why are the figures, calculations, and methodology misleading users on market conditions? The average user is not going to spend a significant amount of time manually collecting data and putting it into Excel to double check Realtor.ca. The company is the largest multiple listing system used in New Brunswick and holding that status comes with some form of implicit trust that the public holds for information it publishes. In this section, I will lay out sections and guidelines from the Competition Act and why I believe that Realtor.ca is violating the Act. **Competition Act** For the below, I will be using the most updated version of the Competition Act R.S.C., 1985, c. C-34, last amended on December 15, 2023 (https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-34/page-1.html) and the “Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet” published by Competition Bureau Canada (https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection\_2010/ic/Iu54-1-2009-eng.pdf) *Section 2.2, Paragraph 4 of the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet* “Businesses should not assume that consumers read an entire Web site, just as they do not read every word on a printed page. Accordingly, information required to be communicated to consumers to ensure that a representation does not create a false or misleading impression should be presented in such a fashion as to make it noticeable and likely to be read.” Explanation: Section 2.2 applies to the average house price and accompanying figures (Figure 2). Realtor.ca shows the average house price in text and graph form but does not disclose that these are house and land price average if my calculations are accurate. *Section 4.1, Paragraph 1 of the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet* “If qualifying information is necessary to prevent a representation from being false or misleading when read on its own, businesses should present that information clearly and conspicuously. Businesses frequently use disclaimers, often signalled by an asterisk, to qualify the general impression of their principal representation when promoting their products or services. As mentioned earlier, the general impression conveyed by the representation, as well as its literal meaning, are taken into account in determining whether a representation is false or misleading.” Explanation: Section 4.1 applies to Realtor.ca house price indices and other methodologies. A disclaimer in this case would be located within the same small paragraph above the figures. Instead, they use their own house price index to obfuscate their methodologies (Figure 2). Another option they give is below the graphs as “Ask a realtor for more detailed information” which creates an additional barrier to the users right under the Competition Act. Specifically, the “to qualify the general impression of their principal representation when promoting their products or services.” The “ask a realtor” hyperlink brings you to an additional page where you can find their realtors in your area. This is incentivizing the user to use their services over others to access more information. Realtor.ca has a majority market share in New Brunswick which further reinforces their monopolistic practices over real estate that hurts consumers. *Section 4.1.3, Paragraph 1 of the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet* “Businesses may effectively draw attention to a disclaimer so that it is more likely to be read by using attention-grabbing tools to display the disclaimer. In doing so, businesses must be careful not to design attention-grabbing tools in other parts of the advertisement in such a way that they distract the consumer’s attention away from the disclaimer, making it unlikely that the consumer will notice the disclaimer or recognize its importance.” Explanation: Section 4.1.3 is further evidence of obfuscation and misrepresentation of their graphical aids and calculations. Similar to section 2.2 in the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet, Realtor.ca placed those figures at the bottom of the first page of listings to draw the user’s attention to their interpretation of data. *Section 52 (1) of the Competition Act: False or misleading representations* “No person shall, for the purpose of promoting, directly or indirectly, the supply or use of a product or for the purpose of promoting, directly or indirectly, any business interest, by any means whatever, knowingly or recklessly make a representation to the public that is false or misleading in a material respect.” Explanation: Section 52 (1) is the main argument for this report. I believe that Realtor.ca knowingly or recklessly misrepresented the average house price in Fredericton using deceptive graphical aids and created a home price index to further obfuscate the methodology. I am not a lawyer, so I could be misinterpreting the sections of the Competition Act. I believe Realtor.ca has reached the threshold of violating the Competition Act since Section 52.1.1 states: “For greater certainty, in establishing that subsection (1) was contravened, it is not necessary to prove that (a) any person was deceived or misled; (b) any member of the public to whom the representation was made was within Canada; or (c) the representation was made in a place to which the public had access.” This amendment to the Competition Act removed the threshold of proving that an individual or the public were deceived or misled. I believe that Realtor.ca has violated all three elements of section 52.1.1 ensuring that they have met the threshold of violating section 52.1 of the Competition Act. **Conclusion** I have given numerous caveats to my analysis, so it is possible I have come to the wrong conclusions given the lack of transparency in methodology and limited time frame. One thing I can conclude with certainty, is that Realtor.ca is misrepresenting market conditions through their figures displaying average house prices, pay gates to information, and methodology disclosures guised as a patented as a housing price index. I believe that Realtor.ca should make it clear to the user how their housing price index is calculated. Realtor.ca and the MLS system has succeeded in market capture and fights to keep this information pay gated to only people that benefit from these misleading claims. Regardless of their reasons, these monopolistic practices only benefit anyone under their system through the restriction of information to shape the way the public perceives the market conditions, a clear violation of the Competition Act and a disservice to the public. There was a lot more I wanted to cover like if Statistics Canada (u/StatCanada) sourced their data from the MLS system and the broader implications of sourcing data that could be misrepresentation. Again, I could be wrong and would welcome any additional relevant information. https://preview.redd.it/awfmkl0x6l0d1.png?width=1681&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9c4be8b6139c4f079ff343637b159b85e79cd3b https://preview.redd.it/za540m0x6l0d1.png?width=3816&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c16fdcbc34795f46b38bdf502e1576fb43887dd https://preview.redd.it/h5lz8p0x6l0d1.png?width=4166&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a76bdd71e64435fbaa38a768469d287b508946a https://preview.redd.it/5qz74m0x6l0d1.png?width=3262&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab9363605bd6b31f324b5bb58f1fcc847f17a67b |
2024.05.15 14:47 PunnyHeals Misrepresentation of house price data by Realtor.ca
TL;DR: submitted by PunnyHeals to fredericton [link] [comments]
I have been looking to buy a house for the past several years in the Fredericton area and have been checking the online listings regularly through Realtor.ca since it is the most common real estate listing website used in New Brunswick. What I liked about Realtor.ca was its ability to provide the average sell price for a house every month with graphs that showed the average sell price for a house in Fredericton for the past 12 months and 10 years. Looking for a house for an several years, I felt that I had a good idea of the market conditions and price ranges. My anecdotal evidence was that the average house price was much higher than Realtor.ca’s estimate of 288,300. I wondered if my anecdotal evidence could be supported by data. The objective of this report is to collect list price data from all available listings within the Fredericton area. Once collected, I can take the average price and see if it matches the average price shown by Realtor.ca. **Average/Median Methodology** When you use Realtor.ca, you can filter results by the property type. There are six property type categories: Residential (single family home), condo/strata, vacant land, recreational, multi-family, and agriculture. For each of these property types, the asking price and address were copied into an Excel file. The data was collected on May 10, 2024, and included all listings within Fredericton; duplicate listings were removed. Once all data was collected, the average and median for each property type was calculated (Table 1). I compared my calculated average to the Realtor.ca average to determine if my anecdotal evidence of thinking the average house price was higher than what Realtor.ca said was justified. **Results** There were 107 listings for residential houses (referred simply as “house” in this report), 245 listings for vacant land, 5 listings for recreational, 7 listings for multi-family, 2 listings for agriculture, and 10 listings for condos (Figure 1). The average listing price was $543,878 for houses, $177,026 for land, $227,080 for recreation, $826,100 for multi-family, $829,450 for agriculture, and $317,410 for condos. The median listing price was $474,900 for houses, $64,900 for land, $229,900 for recreation, $799,000 for multi-family, $829,450 for agriculture, and $289,900 for condos (Table 1). **Realtor.ca MLS System Average House Price Claim** When you search for “houses for sale in Fredericton, NB”, you will see the top search results show Realtor.ca. This is not uncommon since Realtor.ca and its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) have the highest number of listings of any other online real estate listing service for the Fredericton, NB, area. Having most real estate listings concentrated on one system can provide users with a general idea of greater market conditions beyond individual listings, such as averages and trends for cities. Realtor.ca provides this data in the form of “Market Price (CAD)” price trends for the past 12 months, and price trends for the past 10 years (Figure 2). These figures are prominently displayed at the end of the first page of the Fredericton real estate listings (URL: https://www.realtor.ca/nb/fredericton/real-estate). This leads us to the first claim by the Realtor.ca MLS system claim and our initial objective of this report. Claim: The average market price in Fredericton sits at $288,300 as of May, 2024. Analysis: When a user views these figures, it is a safe assumption that when a price is displayed, the user is inclined to believe that “Market Price (CAD)” is the average house price in Fredericton. This is further reinforced if the user reads the description above the figures which states: “Use our home price trends to better gauge local market conditions and plan your next move. The graphs below show benchmark or average prices of homes sold in the area. Data generated by MLS® Systems and the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) — Canada’s most advanced tool to gauge local home price levels and trends.” This small paragraph specifically states, “The graphs below show benchmark or average prices of homes sold in the area.” Based off the graphs and their statement, we can safely interpret that Realtor.ca is explicitly saying that the average home price in Fredericton, NB, currently sits at $288,300; leaving no room for interpretation on how the data can be viewed. The reason I wanted to be explicitly clear on this thought process is that if you look back at the results section of this paper (Table 1) and see that the calculated average of all house listings was $543,878, it represents an 88.65% difference. A couple assumptions that could explain this difference are:
Since there is such a large discrepancy in my calculated average and the average from Realtor.ca, I expanded my analysis to other categories. I combined my residential house data set with the other five property types to see if it would alter our initial average and how close it would come to the calculated Realtor.ca average (Table 2). Realtor.ca claims the average house price in Fredericton was $288,300, which seems to be closest to my calculated average for the combination of house and land listings. With the addition of these combinations, it suggests that Realtor.ca calculates average housing price using houses and land listings. Realtor.ca MLS’s claim of the average house price in Fredericton, NB being $288,300 is a misrepresentation of the true market value and conditions. If a company were to calculate averages of an entire real estate market within an area, why would they only include house and land and not the other 4 categories? **Misleading Representations by Realtor.ca** The conclusions made from my analysis were made with plenty of explanations and assumptions. Given that the MLS system is a pay gated system, and their patented house price index algorithms are private, I feel it is reasonable to assume that my data is closer to true market prices. This leads us to the next question, if my data isn’t correct, why are the figures, calculations, and methodology misleading users on market conditions? The average user is not going to spend a significant amount of time manually collecting data and putting it into Excel to double check Realtor.ca. The company is the largest multiple listing system used in New Brunswick and holding that status comes with some form of implicit trust that the public holds for information it publishes. In this section, I will lay out sections and guidelines from the Competition Act and why I believe that Realtor.ca is violating the Act. **Competition Act** For the below, I will be using the most updated version of the Competition Act R.S.C., 1985, c. C-34, last amended on December 15, 2023 (https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-34/page-1.html) and the “Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet” published by Competition Bureau Canada (https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection\_2010/ic/Iu54-1-2009-eng.pdf) *Section 2.2, Paragraph 4 of the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet* “Businesses should not assume that consumers read an entire Web site, just as they do not read every word on a printed page. Accordingly, information required to be communicated to consumers to ensure that a representation does not create a false or misleading impression should be presented in such a fashion as to make it noticeable and likely to be read.” Explanation: Section 2.2 applies to the average house price and accompanying figures (Figure 2). Realtor.ca shows the average house price in text and graph form but does not disclose that these are house and land price average if my calculations are accurate. *Section 4.1, Paragraph 1 of the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet* “If qualifying information is necessary to prevent a representation from being false or misleading when read on its own, businesses should present that information clearly and conspicuously. Businesses frequently use disclaimers, often signalled by an asterisk, to qualify the general impression of their principal representation when promoting their products or services. As mentioned earlier, the general impression conveyed by the representation, as well as its literal meaning, are taken into account in determining whether a representation is false or misleading.” Explanation: Section 4.1 applies to Realtor.ca house price indices and other methodologies. A disclaimer in this case would be located within the same small paragraph above the figures. Instead, they use their own house price index to obfuscate their methodologies (Figure 2). Another option they give is below the graphs as “Ask a realtor for more detailed information” which creates an additional barrier to the users right under the Competition Act. Specifically, the “to qualify the general impression of their principal representation when promoting their products or services.” The “ask a realtor” hyperlink brings you to an additional page where you can find their realtors in your area. This is incentivizing the user to use their services over others to access more information. Realtor.ca has a majority market share in New Brunswick which further reinforces their monopolistic practices over real estate that hurts consumers. *Section 4.1.3, Paragraph 1 of the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet* “Businesses may effectively draw attention to a disclaimer so that it is more likely to be read by using attention-grabbing tools to display the disclaimer. In doing so, businesses must be careful not to design attention-grabbing tools in other parts of the advertisement in such a way that they distract the consumer’s attention away from the disclaimer, making it unlikely that the consumer will notice the disclaimer or recognize its importance.” Explanation: Section 4.1.3 is further evidence of obfuscation and misrepresentation of their graphical aids and calculations. Similar to section 2.2 in the Application of the Competition Act to Representations on the Internet, Realtor.ca placed those figures at the bottom of the first page of listings to draw the user’s attention to their interpretation of data. *Section 52 (1) of the Competition Act: False or misleading representations* “No person shall, for the purpose of promoting, directly or indirectly, the supply or use of a product or for the purpose of promoting, directly or indirectly, any business interest, by any means whatever, knowingly or recklessly make a representation to the public that is false or misleading in a material respect.” Explanation: Section 52 (1) is the main argument for this report. I believe that Realtor.ca knowingly or recklessly misrepresented the average house price in Fredericton using deceptive graphical aids and created a home price index to further obfuscate the methodology. I am not a lawyer, so I could be misinterpreting the sections of the Competition Act. I believe Realtor.ca has reached the threshold of violating the Competition Act since Section 52.1.1 states: “For greater certainty, in establishing that subsection (1) was contravened, it is not necessary to prove that (a) any person was deceived or misled; (b) any member of the public to whom the representation was made was within Canada; or (c) the representation was made in a place to which the public had access.” This amendment to the Competition Act removed the threshold of proving that an individual or the public were deceived or misled. I believe that Realtor.ca has violated all three elements of section 52.1.1 ensuring that they have met the threshold of violating section 52.1 of the Competition Act. **Conclusion** I have given numerous caveats to my analysis, so it is possible I have come to the wrong conclusions given the lack of transparency in methodology and limited time frame. One thing I can conclude with certainty, is that Realtor.ca is misrepresenting market conditions through their figures displaying average house prices, pay gates to information, and methodology disclosures guised as a patented as a housing price index. I believe that Realtor.ca should make it clear to the user how their housing price index is calculated. Realtor.ca and the MLS system has succeeded in market capture and fights to keep this information pay gated to only people that benefit from these misleading claims. Regardless of their reasons, these monopolistic practices only benefit anyone under their system through the restriction of information to shape the way the public perceives the market conditions, a clear violation of the Competition Act and a disservice to the public. There was a lot more I wanted to cover like if Statistics Canada (u/StatCanada) sourced their data from the MLS system and the broader implications of sourcing data that could be misrepresentation. Again, I could be wrong and would welcome any additional relevant information. https://preview.redd.it/rnsd41ym6l0d1.png?width=1681&format=png&auto=webp&s=51589de251bac87748c5ee7e9f0c24a2408fc4a0 https://preview.redd.it/apw3q2ym6l0d1.png?width=3816&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d0ce2c2c103032e343793ae147411338d107375 https://preview.redd.it/bi9hg2ym6l0d1.png?width=4166&format=png&auto=webp&s=911c5cfd60b58f658e0048552760efc2ec785561 https://preview.redd.it/ki25gaym6l0d1.png?width=3262&format=png&auto=webp&s=3dd741f4fead9c6782e24c8193062135238209d5 |
2024.05.13 01:35 icecreamlava Interesting opinion piece in JAMA called "Too much dentistry"
Dental diseases and procedures are common, troublesome, and expensive, exceeding spending on other major health conditions, such as diabetes, ischemic heart disease, hypertension, dementias, and breast cancer, in the US. Dental issues are relevant for internists because unmet dental care needs can be painful for patients. Excluding teeth from medical health care is arbitrary.REFERENCES
Evidence-based medicine, a movement that gained prominence in the 1990s, has profoundly affected the practice of medicine. Unfortunately, little progress has been made on using data from clinical trials to determine best practices for dental care. Instead, most dental care relies on practice patterns influenced by the economic pressures of running a dental practice, dentists’ professional training and opinions, and patients’ expectations, all of which tend to favor excessive diagnoses and interventions. The result is that while many people who have low income go without any dental care, those who can pay are subjected to overdiagnosis and overtreatment.
Overdiagnosis
Overdiagnosis occurs when conditions that will never cause harm are identified. Unnecessary treatments resulting from overdiagnosis subject patients to potential harm and waste valuable resources that could be used for necessary and effective treatments.
For example, dentists may treat early noncavitated caries lesions, aiming to prevent more advanced lesions, such as dentine cavities. A noncavitated caries lesion is a demineralized enamel spot (white spot lesion) without evidence of cavitation. The majority of white spot lesions will not progress,1 and there is no evidence that early treatment, except with fissure sealants, is generally more effective than no treatment in preventing dentine cavities.2 Paradoxically, these sealants are frequently overlooked or underused by dentists. Dental cavities are routinely filled in children, despite evidence that dental pain and infection rates due to dental cavities in primary teeth are similar (about 40%) in children who are randomized to teeth being filled or not being filled.3
Decline in Caries and the Impact on Dentists’ Workload
In the 1970s, there was an unexpected, extraordinary decline in the number of cavitated caries lesions seen in dental patients.4 This decline in the number of patients’ cavitated caries lesions affected dentists’ workload and has played a role in overdiagnosis and treatment in dentistry so that dentists can support their practices. This financial need led to more recommendations for regular 6-month visits.5 Two randomized clinical trials failed to demonstrate that 6-month intervals between dental checkups result in better oral health compared with longer intervals (up to 24 months), which led the authors of a Cochrane review to conclude: “Whether adults see their dentist for a check-up every 6 months or at personalized intervals based on their dentist’s assessment of their risk of dental disease does not affect tooth decay, gum disease, or quality of life. Longer intervals (up to 24 months) between checkups may not negatively affect these outcomes.”6 Nonetheless, the standard for dental visits remains every 6 months.
Scaling and Polishing
Another commonly performed procedure is scaling and polishing to prevent periodontitis, a common condition in middle-aged persons. Scaling removes plaque and calculus from the crown and root surfaces of the teeth and is performed using hand or ultrasonic scalers. Polishing, which entails the mechanical removal of extrinsic stains and deposits, is typically done using a rubber cup or bristle brush loaded with a prophylaxis paste.
The assumption has been that scaling and polishing can prevent gingivitis and periodontitis, thus potentially preventing tooth loss, pain, and mobility. However, to our knowledge there are no published clinical trials assessing these outcomes.7 The existing evidence only evaluates short-term surrogate outcomes. It suggests that treating periodontitis, specifically through root planing, leads to a slight enhancement in the gum-to-tooth attachment level among individuals with moderate to severe periodontitis.8 However, there does not appear to be any advantage to scaling and polishing for adults without periodontitis.9
Changing Financial Incentives
The prevailing dental economic model based on fee-for-service creates an environment of dental overdiagnosis and overtreatment. At the same time, many persons who do not have dental insurance cannot afford to pay out of pocket for dental care, creating a situation where people with low income or who are part of a racial and ethnic minority group are often underdiagnosed and undertreated. A value-based model, in which dentists are paid to maintain oral health rather than to deliver treatments like fillings, cleanings, and fluoride applications, could be more positive for oral health. A study conducted in Rio de Janeiro (and coauthored by one of us [P.N.]) found that, among patients without treatment indications, an average of 2 teeth were treated during a 6-month follow-up period. This number increased to 3.6 teeth if the patient had changed dentists.10 A clear need exists for trials to compare different methods of paying dentists to assess the impact on oral health and on overtreatment and undertreatment.
What Is the Way Forward?
We do not want to give the impression that dental care is not important. On the contrary, dental pain, oral abscesses, broken teeth, and inflamed tissues surrounding the teeth are common presentations to medical professionals, especially those working in urgent care settings. Similarly, good dentition is nutritionally important for eating a full diet and psychologically essential to a person’s sense of appearance. However, dental procedures should be based on effectiveness and safety.
It is true that many important dental outcomes (eg, tooth loss) may take a long time to assess. On the other hand, the human mouth offers an easy trial design in which some procedures, such as filling a tooth, could be determined by randomization when there is more than 1 tooth in the mouth with a cavity. Other common abnormalities can impact adjacent teeth (eg, periodontitis) and require a refined design (eg, randomization to quadrants or sextants).
Identifying which dental procedures are beneficial and ensuring that relevant dental associations update their guidelines accordingly provide an opportunity to allocate resources to those who need them the most. The aim is to reduce overdiagnosis and overtreatment while increasing necessary treatment.
Corresponding Author: Paulo Nadanovsky, DDS, PhD, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, FIOCRUZ, Brazil, Rua Leopoldo Bulhões 1480, Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil ([paulo.nadanovsky@gmail.com](mailto:paulo.nadanovsky@gmail.com)).
Published Online: May 6, 2024. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2024.0222
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.
Additional Contributions: We thank Steven Woloshin, MD, MS, The Center for Medicine and the Media, The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, and The Lisa Schwartz Foundation for Truth in Medicine, for his invaluable intellectual contributions to the development, writing, and critical revision of this paper. Dr Woloshin was not compensated for his contributions.
2024.05.11 19:36 No-Mood-7634 Levels
Is this still really low to experience symptoms? My levels April of 2023 were 22. In October of 2023 they were 28 I believe. I take 2000 IU the whole time and it raised it in the beginning but not now? I’m sensitive to higher doses but idk if this is why I’m still having symptoms. I’ll write mine below. I take magnesium every night too. My endocrinologist told me not to take k2 unless I take 5,000 IU or more. I do live in a house with mold, so maybe that’s why it’s not getting better. submitted by No-Mood-7634 to VitaminD [link] [comments] -anxiety and panic -weird feeling in legs / falling feeling -head feels funny -tired with insomnia -tingles in feet -eyes feel weird |
2024.05.10 18:01 goldenschool The Importance of Mindful Media Consumption for Newborns and Young Children: Insights from Golden Poppy School
2024.05.09 16:29 Juhy78910 Intrinsic factor antibodies
Just recently had some blood work done, I've been taking sublingual b12 for a while now so it's good to see that my body is actually absorbing it. However I see that my intrinsic factor test is 1.5, is that high enough to be considered the reason why I'm unable to absorb B12? submitted by Juhy78910 to B12_Deficiency [link] [comments] |
2024.05.09 04:06 Charming_Sleep_2758 Surprised by VUS, unsure if I should be worried
I went in for a routine Pap smear today at a new doc. She had ordered my files from a previous doc. That was in 2018 and I had a Myriad MyRisk test done due to family history of breast cancer. submitted by Charming_Sleep_2758 to lynchsyndrome [link] [comments] Doc wasn’t worried about my personal risk (I’m 35 and will start annual breast MRIs this year), but she surprised me by asking about familial history of colon cancer, prompted by those old 2018 results. Again said she wasn’t worried, but admitted this was not her area of expertise. I will make an appt with a genetic counselor tomorrow, but Reddit input is appreciated tonight! |
2024.05.09 02:49 ThePostalTilt 2008 Nissan Sentra key fob reprogramming after battery replacement
2024.05.08 21:48 iamjoel451 Looking for formatting advice
2024.05.08 16:16 strongmanass Even Stock Exhausts Aren't Safe from NYC Noise Camera Tickets
Even with a stock exhaust, you and your performance car of choice could have the privilege of paying the City of New York $800 for a noise violation. Thanks to a new noise violation pilot program aimed at curbing loud exhausts and excessive honking with smart cameras and microphones, the potential for punitive punishment is on the rise for enthusiasts across all five boroughs.Road&Track seems to be focusing on the fact the 911 was stock. But that doesn't matter. It's a noise law. If the car exceeds 85 dB it's breaking the law regardless of whether the exhaust is stock or not. And it's a very reasonable law. Auto makers are ultimately at fault for stock cars that break noise regulations, but every time a sports car that's not loud gets released every sports car enthusiast complains that it's not loud enough. Well this is the other side of that coin.
Certainly, there is a decibel limit to the pops and crackles that even us enthusiasts can endure, and the tolerance of the general public often falls far below that line. Particularly in the wake of the pandemic, the prevalence of gun-shot-like backfires has turned public perception sour on modified cars, leading local officials in both New York and California to take action on such quality-of-life issues.
Specifically, New York City approved a pilot program of noise-monitoring cameras in December 2023, arming each borough with at least five of the newly developed cameras.
The program is young, but it has the potential to be a major pain even for drivers of unmodified cars.
Operated jointly by the New York City Department of Environmental Protection and the Department of Transportation, the conjoined camera and microphone operate much like speed or red light cameras, snapping pictures of the offender's license plate and issuing a fine to the registered owner. Unlike speed light cameras, however, the locations of the noise-monitoring cameras have not been initially disclosed to the general public.
Fitted with sensitive microphones, the $35,000 cameras detect and capture everything from loud exhausts and backfires to honking and blasting music. Eighty-five decibels is the threshold for receiving a fine, which starts at $800 for a first offense and rises to $2,500 for repeat offenders. For reference, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention places the average environmental noise level of city traffic inside a car at 85 decibels, indicating that City officials are targeting those who go above and beyond a normative sound level.
"We’re going after those who are potentially using an illegal vehicle, a modified vehicle, some that are really acting loudly," NYC Council Majority Leader Keith Powers said in a statement last year. "Even in the city that doesn’t sleep, New Yorkers deserve some peace and quiet."
Officials like Powers assured everyday drivers that the program isn't about penalizing unmodified vehicles or the occasional honk. In practice, however, that promise hasn't exactly panned out for people like Jerry H (who wished to keep their last name anonymous), who received an $800 noise violation ticket in his bone stock 2010 Porsche 911 Carrera S.
Traversing across the east end of Manhattan's 36th Street and funneling into the blue-and-yellow tiled Queens-Midtown Tunnel, Jerry was commuting home to the outer reaches of Queens. Making the light-to-light slog that is Manhattan traffic, Jerry accelerated to the penultimate light before hitting the tunnel, focused on getting home. Weeks later, he received a notice in the mail that he had been caught violating the Stop Spreading the Noise Act.
With a 3.8-liter flat-six, a stock exhaust, and on a relatively slow section of road, Jerry was initially puzzled by the violation. Sure, he admits to hitting 35 mph in a 25 mph zone, but he wasn't speeding excessively or wringing out the rear-mounted engine, either. With $800 on the line and a car that he thought would be exempt from such fines, Jerry built a defense and filed an appeal with the Office of Administrative Trials and Hearings.
Armed with an independent decibel test, certified documents proving the 997 was stock, and questions about the calibration of the cameras, Jerry appealed the violation and lost not once but twice. Up against lawyers for the Department of Environmental Protection, he queried them about the once-a-year calibration of the camera, the sonic combination of rear-engine induction and exhaust noise, and even the gearing in his car.
On the other side of the virtual bar, lawyers for the City mounted a defense with video footage not previously provided to the owner of the 911. The footage, analyzed by Road & Track, shows a 997-generation 911 accelerating up to a light and a series of red dots marking sound waves exceeding 85 decibels. The dots lock onto the car as well as the street, scaffolding, and buildings beside it. According to the documents provided by the DEP, the 997's signature flat-six rose to 90.4 decibels at its loudest.
In the judge's eyes, that was evidence enough to uphold the violation against Jerry in both appeals, regardless of the stock exhaust fitted to the car. This sets a precedent much like a California case involving a stock Hyundai Elantra N, in that owners can be heavily penalized for simply buying and owning a factory vehicle. No matter the age or factory status of the vehicle, New York City's pilot program can and will get you for being too loud.
"It just makes no sense to not have exemptions," Jerry said in an interview with Road & Track. "And it's pretty clear that automakers don't want to get involved with this. They want nothing to do with this."
Jerry is not alone in this frustration, either. Prior to the official approval of the pilot program in 2023, the DEP has been running a small noise camera test program since 2021, issuing as many as 218 noise violations for allegedly modified mufflers last year. Additionally, court documents cite another case of a stock car, a 2018 Jaguar F-Type, receiving and being held to the $800 violation fine for making 86 decibels of noise earlier this year. That's one decibel over the limit.
California's current noise enforcement standards are actually looser than NYC's, with a standard of 95 decibels for cars and 80 for motorcycles built after 1985. Similarly, California's enforcement standards don't charge first-time offenders and even offer payment waivers for those not able to pay the fine or adequately repair their car. No such exemptions or caveats exist in the text of the NYC Council bill. Globally, Berlin, Paris, and the United Kingdom have also trialed such decibel monitoring devices, and other U.S. cities are considering it, too.
"The NYC Noise Code has a strict standard of 76 dB(A). DEP enforces if the vehicle creates noise of more than 85 dB(A) at 50 feet," a spokesperson for the DEP said in a statement to Road & Track. "Stock vehicles that emit excessive levels of noise result from actions taken by the driver. That is why the standard of law is no person shall cause or permit the exceedance of the decibel standard."
While the precedent set by Jerry's experience is a worrying one for car enthusiasts, motorcyclists, and anyone ready to test the limits of their sound system this summer, it's worth noting that noise pollution is indeed a major problem in New York City, too. Research from 2014 estimated that around 90 percent of New York City residents are exposed to levels of noise exceeding the Environmental Protection Agency's noise limit guidelines. The results of this aren't catastrophic in the short term but can develop into cognitive issues over time.
Specifically, research shows that prolonged sleep disruption, hearing loss, hypertension, and heart disease are all linked to consistent noise pollution. Additionally, the impacts of noise are specifically detrimental to children, yielding decreased memory, struggling reading skills, and lower test scores when consistently exposed to high levels of noise. With noise monitored by New York City’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene as well as 311 noise complaint data, the top sonic offenders in NYC are unsurprisingly traffic, sirens, and construction.
2024.05.07 18:34 -jbrs Bridging the Gap [OC]
Hey all - submitted by -jbrs to RFKJrForPresident [link] [comments] I've made this post to try to reach people on the other side. I would publish on my substack, but my audience is not at all aligned unfortunately; I think it'd be best to distribute among Kennedy supporters for them to then send to people in their orbit. I've sent to AV24 but I don't think they've seen - if anyone has a contact at the campaign or AV24, please feel free to forward to them. Thanks, jbrs Bridging the GapThe challenge in the fight on vaccines isn't the facts. It's getting people to listen.https://preview.redd.it/wcl4621071zc1.png?width=596&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5c504be1c185e9c821e6c54967ae633729711a7 RoadblocksOne of the biggest challenges in Robert Kennedy Jr’s candidacy is overcoming the ‘anti-vaccine’ label. It’s weaker than it was years ago - Covid changed everything - but it’s still a barrier for a lot of people. And it’s not that they listen to his views and find them unreasonable. It’s just the way he’s been attached to the label, a conversation-ending smear so effective that people will reject him instantly and outright before he’s even had a chance to speak.Many of the vaccine skeptical know exactly what it’s like - they were once on that side too. It’s as Guy describes above: almost all of us started off believing the institutional story, until something forced us to question it. Once people actually listen to what the other side has to say, opinions tend to change pretty quickly. But there are a few major roadblocks preventing most people from ever beginning down that path, and I want to talk about them because they're how an official narrative as weak as the one on vaccines has been able to stand as long as it has. One roadblock is the extreme (and engineered) stigma around the issue - the hate and derision you'll receive for questioning the consensus out loud; the social and even professional consequences you'll face. It's powerful enough for most to recoil at the faintest hint of deviation from the institutional line. It's almost a disgust reflex, and often comes with anger. Another is the stake we naturally develop as participants. We don’t want to believe we’ve harmed ourselves and those we’re responsible for, and so there's a tendency to be too quick to accept the word of authorities who reassure us that we haven't. Both of those have shifted significantly in recent years - the counterexamples have become too salient, too undeniable. But there's still one impediment that is only in the early process of moving, and which continues to bar the way for many, holding the other roadblocks in place as well. It's that people simply can't imagine how our system - the system that they rely on in so many ways - could allow something like what is being claimed to take place. People often need to understand the full scope of how something could happen before they can begin to process evidence that it is. And the implications of what the other side claims are just prima facie impossible to them, so they can't even begin to consider the evidence presented. The system in theory works: experts in the field will call out bad science and behavior. Institutions aren't perfect but the incentives and mechanisms are in place for errors to be called out and needed improvements to be made. If the harms are real, why wouldn't the experts speak out? What motivation could they possibly have to do something like this and cover it up? And how could they possibly pull it off with so many who surely don't share the motive watching? https://preview.redd.it/8kwgsyyl41zc1.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f05ad3d43724dffc5cc8419d44d2cd90da4c1fe The intuitive conviction is that something like significant vaccine injury simply couldn't go undetected and unaddressed. The system would never allow it. And unfortunately what it usually takes is a personal experience with the failures of the system to start seeing that the way the system works in theory is not the way it works in practice - often an injury to oneself or a loved one. (I'm very sympathetic to those who still take the default position for this reason - I wouldn't know either if I hadn't had my own set of experiences exposing me to the holes in the institutional story.) If such an experience happens to you, you'll be gaslit about it if you bring it to anyone's attention, just a coincidence, and some continue to fall for it. But for many that intuitive conviction is broken. Their stance begins to open a little bit. In spite of all of the once-persuasive programming, it becomes undeniable that something is clearly wrong here. And at that point you can start to really take in the evidence. You start to see some things that really shift your intuitions. Some were things you probably saw before, but you waved them off then - marginal issues, but the system still mostly works. The experts know what they’re doing; who were you to disagree? But now these discrepancies are forcing you ask questions, and they begin to pile up. You see example after example of corruption and incompetence in public health and the pharma industry - the number of medications recalled, the fines for fraud and unethical business practices, the way the research process has been fundamentally corrupted, the bad incentives and conflicts of interest present all throughout the industry and its regulatory bodies, the way the institution protects itself at the expense of the public it serves. https://preview.redd.it/gz9ciljo41zc1.png?width=544&format=png&auto=webp&s=5621a1d67e2b3a7e3dd1498add8e0a97dd0c84cb You see massive failures in other once highly-respected institutions and organizations - sometimes amounting to plain evil. You start to wonder if medicine and public health are so different, if they are so immune to the problems that plague every other institution. You see the way whistleblowers and dissidents lose their livelihoods and reputations through targeted character assassination campaigns, and wonder if there aren't many more who are reluctant to speak out in face of such heavy consequences. Then maybe you start actually looking into what the anti-vaccine loonies have been saying. Narrative and RealityIt happened for me. I went to a chiropractor's office once many years ago and remember shaking my head in disbelief seeing the Vaccines Revealed series on display on the check out desk. It was a feeling of second-hand embarrassment and sharp judgment - don't you know all of that's been debunked? I didn't actually even know the claims made in the series or anything else about it - I just knew that everyone knows it's BS.But eventually, I'm not sure exactly what prompted it, I watched some of the interviews. Maybe it was like this - I'd been confidently wrong before. So I listened... and what I heard actually made sense. It wasn't what I was expecting, the tired and easily dispatched arguments I was sure would be presented. These were intelligent and knowledgeable people, often experienced doctors and nurses, once fully behind the program, but sacrificing their careers and the esteem of their peers to speak out about what they had come to see as a terrible injustice. (Robert Kennedy Jr was one of those interviewed, and I remember I had a skepticism of him when I first saw him even though I didn't know anything about him; this strange closed stance I found myself taking even though I couldn't place or understand why exactly I took it. I must have absorbed it through all the negative coverage he received... He's become one of my greatest heroes in the time since.) What I found is that these people on the other side generally seemed more knowledgeable, often a lot more, in the rare instances where engagement between the two sides was allowed. [1][2][3] And I looked deeper and deeper. I wasn't sure about my ability to parse every claim, but when I'd read the rebuttals from the leading vaccine-proponents like Paul Offit or Peter Hotez, they just wouldn't even be in touch with what the opposition was saying. Often there would be major gaps in logic and other errors, but they were dismissive and certain enough in the presentation that nobody would have the confidence to call them out on it. They seemed to be relying on the perception of authority and the stigma they'd created to intimidate observers out of actually thinking through the relevant issues. They were hiding something - that much was clear to me. And there's this idea of 'The Noble Lie' that the anti-vax side will often talk about. The gist is that the pro-vax side knows that there are merits to what the opposition is saying, but believe that they can't allow the public to know. Vaccines are too good, too important to allow debate to happen on the topic. There's a section from the June 1984 Federal Register that seems to confirm this: However, although the continued availability of the vaccine may not be in immediate jeopardy, any possible doubts, whether or not well founded*, about the safety of the vaccine cannot be allowed to exist in view of the need to assure that the vaccine will continue to be used to the maximum extent consistent with the nation’s public health objectives.*And there’s more recent confirmation too - https://reddit.com/link/1cmg7nz/video/es72g2ay41zc1/player But here's the problem: they don't actually know the risk-benefit profile. They've never done the needed studies - long term data, true placebo controls, cumulative impact - though they'll lie to you about it. They seem to just believe that given that there's so great a benefit, and the risk of injury seems so marginal, how could they ever let the program get called into question? How could they potentially let the progress against terrible, vaccine-preventable diseases be reversed? Their own statements indicate it. This was what they said after they realized that infants were being exposed to levels of mercury far exceeding the federal guidelines: The recognition that some children could be exposed to a cumulative level of mercury over the first six months of life that exceeds one of the federal guidelines on methyl mercury now requires a weighing of two different types of risks when vaccinating infants. On the one hand, there is the known serious risk of diseases and deaths caused by failure to immunize our infants against vaccine-preventable infectious diseases; on the other, there is the unknown and probably much smaller risk, if any, of neuro-developmental effects posed by exposure to thimerosal. The large risks of not vaccinating children far outweigh the unknown and probably much smaller risk, if any, of cumulative exposure to thimerosal-containing vaccines over the first six months of life.Wanting to maintain public confidence in the program is the most charitable explanation for their deception, and I think it is the main force, though I think there are less charitable explanations that factor in too. But even good intentions are no guarantee of a positive outcome. And people should expect problems to metastasize in precisely the areas where institutions have insulated themselves from scrutiny. We’ve seen what happens when our leaders stifle dissent in service of the ‘greater good’: https://preview.redd.it/sphry75551zc1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=6786f358f2b136c392aab4c4edf4376afb4767fa But before going into the risks of vaccines, understand that even the purported benefits should be called into question. There's the widely quoted Guyer study - The major declines in child mortality that occurred in the first third of the 20th century have been attributable to a combination of improved socioeconomic conditions in this country and the public health strategies to protect the health of Americans. [...] Vaccination, while first used in the 18th century, became more widely implemented in the middle part of the century. Vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis became available during the late 1920s but only widely used in routine pediatric practice after World War II. Thus vaccination does not account for the impressive declines in mortality seen in the first half of the century.The book Dissolving Illusions also goes into this history and how the gains that have been attributed to vaccines have to be scrutinized, and that many of them owe to improvements in sanitation and nutrition. I won't try to make the full case here, but the thing to understand is that there is systematic pressure to inflate perception of vaccine effectiveness at every turn going back decades and decades, and every single assumption and measurement has to be questioned because you can be damn sure it is not happening within the institutions. From a study from 2005, before these processes of capture and suppression had achieved complete control and keen observers could still point out what was happening: https://preview.redd.it/qs5fchm851zc1.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca97d5b548b8269b1a9341809676fc7973aca3ad And there's more, but that's all you need for a 'how'. Science is a human enterprise, subject to all of the human biases and failings that lead to massive errors in other domains. Groupthink, greed, self-protection, incompetence - public health and medicine are not somehow immune to them. If this was ever in doubt, it became clear to many during the COVID response. Now as for the risks. The number of mothers who know that their child was injured by vaccines - perfectly fine before, and then suddenly symptomatic, falling behind on milestones just after a 'wellness' visit - should tell you something. The billions that have been paid out through the extremely arduous vaccine injury compensation program, which only a small fraction of vaccine injury parents can see through to completion, should tell you something. The dramatic increases in autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders we've seen over the last few decades, coincident with a dramatic increase in the vaccine schedule), should tell you something. It's not increased rates of diagnosis, as much as they want you to believe it: https://preview.redd.it/8f3xfd2e51zc1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=661d21d4338650ab7bc16667dab9233e540b71c4 I've always liked this quote - The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it.And it's not exactly crazy to think that injecting, e.g., aluminum and mercury into babies could have some negative health consequences. Given the plausibility of the mechanism, the anecdotes should carry even more weight. But shouldn't any claims from anecdotes bear out in the data? [4] Yeah, the system should work in theory. But the reality is a different story - The whistleblower was senior CDC scientist Dr. William Thompson Slate received so much pushback for publishing this article that they had to publish a letter from the editor defending the decision - I subscribed based on their courage https://reddit.com/link/1cmg7nz/video/x4ljagtq51zc1/player Getting to the TruthI won’t try to make a full case here - there is just too much.But I’m not hoping to convince you that vaccines are unsafe or ineffective. I just want to give enough for anyone willing to listen to realize there's something going on here; that these agencies need an absolute overhaul, and that there needs to be a full investigation into what's taken place here with accountability for everyone involved. Experts and institutions aren’t infallible; they need to be pushed back on and scrutinized. When they are, long held consensus can often change: This happened only after an arduous fight with the FDA [1] - RFK Jr discussing vaccine safety with a family physician in his NewsNation town hall (2023) [2] - JB Handley on The Doctors (2009) [3] - Jim Carrey and Jenny McCarthy on Larry King (2009) [4] - In the rare event a genuine comparison is made, some studies have found rather concerning results - but the findings are ignored and the researchers ridiculed for giving fodder to anti-vaxxers |
2024.05.06 17:01 OncaAtrox Last Reflections on Rewilding Argentina and their Reintroduction Projects, and How the Community Will Move Forward.
The central goal of conservation genetics is to protect the remaining genetic diversity of populations and species that are at risk due to significant anthropogenic impact, as well as to safeguard the evolutionary processes of ecosystems (Frankham et al. 2002). Genetic studies are an indispensable and fundamental component of any conservation project, including rewilding strategies. In this respect, the IUCN (IUCN/SSC 2013) proposes: 1) analyze the genetic variability of the remaining populations prior to management action; 2) in the case of reintroductions, the founder individuals should not be related; 3) in supplementations, founders from the genetic group of the original or remaining population should preferably be used; 4) in the case of translocations, replacement of the remaining genetic variation by the introduced variation should be avoided; and 5) genetic monitoring should be conducted after active management. Taking these recommendations into account, we will describe the genetic aspects of an example of supplementation (reinforcement in English, according to IUCN/SSC 2013) and one of reintroduction (reintroduction in English, according to IUCN/SSC 2013) of a carnivore in Argentina: the jaguar in El Impenetrable National Park (PNEI; Chaco province) and in the Iberá Protected Areas (APs).As we can read from above, Guerisoli et al. provided a great overview of the frameworks put in place by major organizations like the IUCN for best practices involving the reintroduction of animals into an environment and gives us clear examples of what happens when those guidelines aren’t followed, such as the case of captive lions in Europe, or wild Florida panthers (I would add other examples such as that of the Ngorongoro crater lions or the Amur leopard). They mention something important by highlighting that in the case of the Florida panthers, genetic rescue was something that was needed due to the lack of alternatives, whereas in the case of jaguars in Iberá and El Impenetrable, it is something that could’ve been avoided entirely by not utilizing closely-related individuals for the growth of founding, isolated populations.
If a species persists in small and fragmented populations, genetic drift can cause the loss or fixation of different alleles in each population, leading to their differentiation. As a result, only part of the original genetic variation is preserved in each fragment. Genetic studies of the remaining jaguar populations in Argentina using microsatellites (Font 2016; Robino 2022) showed that the population of the Atlantic Forest is significantly differentiated from the populations of the Chaco and Yungas. The latter, although ecologically isolated today (Thompson & Velilla 2017; Paviolo et al. 2019), do not show significant genetic differentiation. All of them present unique alleles: 13 alleles in the Atlantic Forest, six in the Chaco, and five in the Yungas (Robino 2022). This result indicates that during the process of population contraction of the species over the last 200 years, not only has genetic variability been lost, but it has also not been distributed uniformly among the fragments. Most of the unique variants of each population are at low frequency, so it is essential that management ensures their persistence (Hedrick & Fredikson 2010; Henkel et al. 2012; Hammerly et al. 2016).
In 2019, the first record of a male jaguar (named Qaramtá) was obtained in PNEI after seven years. In February 2020, the National Parks Administration convened various stakeholders involved in the conservation of the species with the aim of making decisions to protect the individual in the PNEI and discuss the possibility of conducting a managed crossing to conserve its genetic pool. Experts involved from the beginning in the "Experimental Center for Jaguar Breeding (CECY)" project in Iberá (see Solís et al. 2014: 7) expressed that the best option from a genetic standpoint was the crossing of Qaramtá with a female of Chaco origin, so as not to dilute his genetic pool. Finally, it was decided to transfer to the PNEI a captive female (named Tania) who had previously served as a breeder in the CECY, daughter of a captive female with supposed origin in the Yungas and an unknown father. In this regard, Di Martino et al. (2022: 86) report "(...) a genetics expert of this species opined that the transfer of Tania and pairing her with Qaramtá should not be carried out because the female possessed Yungas and not Chaco genetics. The jaguar does not present significant genetic differences related to biogeographical regions throughout its distribution area (from the southern United States to northern Argentina)." This statement is not correct as it confuses genetic lineage (resulting from the evolutionary history of the species) with genetic differentiation. Numerous works demonstrate the existence of genetic differentiation among jaguar populations from various ecoregions (Haag et al. 2010; Valdez et al. 2015; Srbek-Araujo et al. 2018; Lorenzana et al. 2020, 2021; Kantek et al. 2021; Robino 2022). This population differentiation must necessarily be considered when supplementing an existing population, as in the case of PNEI, since it is necessary to avoid the replacement of its unique genetic variation by genomes from other populations (called "genetic swamping" in English, Frankham et al. 2011; Russello & Jensen 2018). Genetic management of reintroductions is different: since the species is extinct, it is recommended to introduce as much genetic variability as possible. Ideally, a greater number of founders will represent a larger proportion of the wild genetic variability, but this number is limited in large mammals and those classified as "Critically Endangered" (i.e., the jaguar in Argentina; Paviolo et al. 2019). In these cases, it is crucial to minimize the coefficient of relatedness among the founders, which can be estimated using molecular markers (Queller & Goodnight 1989; Lynch & Ritland 1999; Wang 2014). Relatedness in small populations leads to inbreeding, whose consequences include increased susceptibility to diseases, reduced fertility, and lower survival of offspring (Frankham 2008). A notable example of the negative impact of relatedness and inbreeding is the management of the captive population of the Asiatic lion, Panthera leo leo. After its population had been reduced to 20 individuals in 1990, nine individuals from a captive population in India were transferred to three European zoos under the "European Endangered Species Program". By 2009, the number of captive individuals in Europe was 93. Simultaneously, the mortality rate of cubs during the first month of life increased, reaching 68.4% (Dorman 2009). A genetic study of the nine founder individuals (Atkinson et al. 2018) found that six of them had a common ancestor two generations back, resulting in three of them having the coefficient of relatedness equivalent to full siblings and two to half siblings. Just 20 years after the transfer, despite initial reproductive success, the relatedness among the founders caused the collapse of the species in captivity (Atkinson et al. 2018).
In Iberá, where a rewilding strategy for jaguars is being implemented (Di Martino et al. 2022), an initially unrelated breeding pair was introduced between 2016 and 2017 based on the analysis of molecular markers (Mirol et al. 2015). In subsequent years, other releases were made, but from 2018 onwards, genetic analyses ceased to be carried out by the initially convened experts (following Resolution No. 383/2018 of the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development). We now present a theoretical analysis of the relatedness among the individuals of the founding population based on the scant public information available. While we recognize that this situation is not ideal, it allows us to preliminarily characterize the current and future scenario of this new population. The theoretical coefficients of relatedness are defined based on the proportion of the genome shared by two individuals given their familial relationship (e.g., parents/children= 0.5, full siblings= 0.5, half siblings= 0.25) and range between 0 and 0.5. In Iberá, the average coefficient of relatedness of the eight founder individuals is 0.32 (i.e., greater than that corresponding to half siblings). This level of relatedness endangers their long-term survival (see also National Directorate of Conservation notes, National Parks Administration NO-2021-122825059-APN-DNC and NO-2021-125785497-APN-DNC). After these releases, the birth of five new cubs was recorded (see media communications). Given the reproductive age of the released individuals, it is likely that in all cases the male breeder was the same individual, also father of all previous litters. If this were the case, it would result in an increase in the average relatedness in the population.
A relatively effective measure to counteract the negative effects of relatedness among founder individuals is genetic rescue (Tallmon et al. 2004; Whiteley et al. 2015; Hoffman et al. 2021), which involves the translocation of individuals from other populations to increase genetic variability. A paradigmatic and successful case is that of the Florida panther, Puma concolor coryi. In 1980, there was a single population of 20-25 adults showing numerous morphological and health problems. The first genetic analyses of this population date back to 1990 (O’Brien 1990), and genetic monitoring has continued to the present. After intense debate in 1995, it was decided to introduce eight females from the Texas puma population. By 2010, there was an increase in population size, effective population size, and genetic diversity in the Florida population (Johnson et al. 2010). A recent study (Van de Kerk et al. 2019) shows that despite the initial success of the program, genetic drift and inbreeding continue to occur at levels that increase the probability of quasi-extinction (less than 10 individuals in 100 years) tenfold. These authors propose that the survival of the Florida panther genetically depends on the introduction of between 5 and 10 individuals from other populations every 20 years. Hedrick et al. (2019) present similar results in the population of wolves, Canis lupus, in Isle Royale National Park (USA): several instances of genetic rescue produced positive effects only in the short term, and currently, the population is on the verge of extinction.
Di Martino et al. (2022) suggest that the inbreeding produced by the relatedness among the founder individuals of the Iberá jaguar population could be counteracted in the future through genetic rescue, as occurred with the Florida panther. However, there are fundamental differences between the two cases. In Florida, the panthers were not extinct, and genetic rescue was the only alternative for their survival. In Iberá, the jaguar was reintroduced, thus there is the possibility to avoid mating between related individuals. Secondly, in the case of the Florida panther, genetic studies were conducted from the start, used in all management decisions, and made public at every stage, not only through publications (see references in Van de Kerk et al. 2019) but also in decision-making by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (US Fish & Wildlife Service 1987; Seal 1994). In the case of the jaguar, genetic analyses were not considered in the management, suggesting a hypothetical genetic rescue in the future. Postponing the resolution of a problem that could have been avoided from the beginning involves considerable risks and does not guarantee successful outcomes, hence it should not be considered a panacea for the problems of inbreeding (Hedrick & García-Dorado 2016).
Finally, it is important to mention that evolutionary processes occur at the level of the complete genome and not only on adaptive genes. Future environmental changes and associated selective pressures are unpredictable, so it is necessary to ensure the presence of genomic-level genetic variability for the persistence of populations and species. The proposals arising from genetic studies are not based on a "taxonomic tyranny," defined by Di Martino et al. (2022: 87) as an eagerness to preserve supposed genetic differences at all costs. On the contrary, these proposals are based on abundant scientific information, and their central aim is that management actions result in the conservation of biodiversity beyond the few generations (in an evolutionary sense) that may be included in rewilding programs.
2024.05.06 15:05 climbdemo The Ultimate List of Games with Epic Boss Fights
2024.05.06 14:49 tykouh Why does my character still have eye makeup even though I've turned it off? [Modding]
I've started adding more appearance mods recently because I realised I'd been playing with a plain, vanilla female V and wanted to change things up. But now, even when I turn off all makeup options, she still has eye makeup on. It's distracting and makes it hard to see other options when I switch between them. Any idea which mod is causing this? It only started happening after I downloaded these new mods so it doesn't seem to be the older mods I have installed unless something is conflicting with it. submitted by tykouh to cyberpunkgame [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/0l6jsetrvsyc1.png?width=2559&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c8a71b2957fd1dbb725ed1abef6527645a7ee47 https://preview.redd.it/39vjo42gysyc1.png?width=224&format=png&auto=webp&s=06816c668f4d8b0a8e403b3b75b5082e800f40e0 https://preview.redd.it/5nhxba2bwsyc1.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a0756927257a5e116cb82f42a0d81e16e0ed412 https://preview.redd.it/isqjsjisysyc1.png?width=2089&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b12f835da04ba69240bed6907d3056cbecd99f4 |
2024.05.05 11:42 Cat_Intrigue Luna Lovegood: Telepathic Synesthesia and the Phoenix Force?
2024.05.04 15:29 Pristine_Charity3033 How does AAWireless work? (old car owner here)
2024.05.04 13:36 pissoffreddit55 Is there a requirement to verify compliance and is it legal to redact personal opinions on work performance?
2024.05.03 23:53 mintygreenmachine12 Join us for our first annual IMPACT STATEMENTS Night on May 17th!
Hello, and happy Friday! submitted by mintygreenmachine12 to VCUG_Unsilenced [link] [comments] In lieu of our “normal” support group on May 17th, we’ll be hosting our first annual "Impact Statements" Night! For this event, we invite participants to share their own version of a “victim impact statement.” An IMPACT STATEMENT is a written or oral statement that crime victims share before a defendant is sentenced. They describe the emotional, physical, and financial impact you and others have suffered as a direct result of the crime—for example, the many women who came forward to testify about Larry Nassar before he was sentenced for sexual abuse. “It provides an opportunity to express in your own words what you, your family, and others close to you have experienced as a result of the crime. Many victims also find it helps provide some measure of closure to the ordeal the crime has caused.” -U.S. Department of Justice For this month's support group, we invite you to write an impact statement to any individual or entity in the medical community (such as the urologist, pediatric provider, AAP, radiologist, etc.). We encourage you to reflect on this question: “If you could speak to the American Academy of Pediatrics, urologists, or your own VCUG conductors, what would you want them to know about the effects of VCUG trauma on your life?” You’ll have an opportunity to share your statement with fellow VCUG survivors on May 17th! If you don’t feel comfortable sharing, you’re always welcome to attend as a listener. We hope to see you there! Date: Friday, May 17th Time: 8:00 PM - 9:15 PM Eastern\* RSVP here to get the Zoom link! (Please remember to review our community guidelines before joining the call. Thank you!) https://preview.redd.it/hdttbc4s8ayc1.png?width=1545&format=png&auto=webp&s=162a04a8bb652d99eafa1f44bae4671f6858d4ff |
2024.05.02 15:44 Specialist_Bake6514 Vapiano P2: Italian Food Made in Germany
Readers, welcome back. In Part 1 of this series, we trace Mark Korzilius' entrepreneurial journey from his initial setbacks in life to the founding of Vapiano, a novel concept in the restaurant industry. We explore the intricacies of Vapiano's innovative approach, from its fresh ingredients and dynamic atmosphere to its data-driven operational model, shedding light on the elements that propelled its rapid success and transformed dining experiences. Before venturing into cities like Dusseldorf, Munich, and Frankfurt, Mark and his team perfect restaurant operations in Hamburg emphasizing their priority of quality growth over top-line growth at all costs. Despite rapid expansion in the early years, Vapiano maintains profitability, even catching the eye of industry giants like McDonald's. Yet, the further the expansion goes the more it brings operational challenges and increased costs, leading to significant investments and the accumulation of debt. In this post, we will continue on this thread but for better context and for those who haven’t done so already, I would encourage you to read Part 1 first. Vapiano P1: Italian Food Made in Germany (substack.com) Let's dig in. submitted by Specialist_Bake6514 to unpackbusinesses [link] [comments] More GrowthWe are now five years into the Vapiano venture, and the customer profile is starting to shift away from the original plan. In the 2007 annual report is says: “The Vapiano concept was developed with the aim of giving professionals, working people a good opportunity to spend their lunch break. In the meantime, the customer base has expanded significantly to include families and tourists. The changes in the customer base have led to the occupancy of individual restaurants being spread throughout the day.” The management team is much focused on improving the experience and keeping things fresh, so that only five years after unveiling its first shop design, star designer Matteo Thun is still very much involved in the design process. Even as the broader Germany economy in 2008 slows to just 1% growth, the group keeps growing aggressively, although the pace of expansion in self-own and operated sites decelerates. Three new self-owned restaurants are opened, including a third one in Berlin. But more importantly the company uses the year to look inwards, optimizing own restaurants and expanding further the pool of franchisees. Five more franchise licenses are added in Germany and for the first time the UK is entered.Testimony to the attractiveness of the concept is the fact that same-store-sales (a metric to measure revenue of a particular restaurant this year in comparison to the same restaurant’s revenue last year) across the board grows by 11%. The concept has broad appeal, there is strong organic growth and management is on top of its game here. When operating as a multi-site quick service restaurant chain like Vapiano, logistics and supply chains becomes key. You want to get your central functions so well-oiled, that opening new sites becomes cooky cutter, particularly when you want to attract new franchisees. Indeed, the concept and brand appeal are important factors to attract top quality franchisees but backend, support functions are equally important for the homogeneity of the products, the consistency of the brand and the customer experience. The group starts further deepening its relations to companies in the areas of goods trading, logistics and services which ensures that high quality products are procured, and supply chains are robust. Another focus for the group is to build supply contracts directly with manufacturers rather than going through middlemen, which leads to significant cost savings. And because of the aggressive role out of new restaurants it makes sense to enter a long-term system partnership for kitchen planning, kitchen construction and after sales service thereby significantly lowering the costs for opening a new site. From 2008 onwards, Vapiano manages to source the central kitchen for all new restaurants from a single source. Overall, the group books another year of stellar growth reaching over 42 million euros in turnover. This is quadrupling the 10 million euros achieved just three years ago. This type of growth is extremely rare for a restaurant business. Operating profits are now close to 4.3 million euros but as in the prior year, seven million euros are invested back into growth and maintenance of the business. Fortunately, because of the strong operational cash flow and favorable working capital movements the overall debt burden only increases modestly. Unique WaysWe are now in the year 2009 and things are progressing well for Vapiano. The following is good reminder that each business is unique, each restaurant concept is unique and while there are always similarities that can be applied, you always ought to go back to first principle of the value proposition, concept or business model at hand and build your thinking and strategy from the ground up, irrespective of how the “others” in the industry might be doing things. While your first intuition may lead you to believe that you would have to hire lots of cooks as the restaurant chain expands, the Vapiano concept demands something different. To that end the company is starting to implement a unique hiring procedure. Instead of conducting individual one-by-one interviews for cooking roles where induvial go through their CVs, a question-and-answer session and perhaps some practical cooking demonstration, prospective candidates are instead selected through casting events. For that purpose, all applicants are gathered in one venue, on one day, and given different task. This approach allows the company to assess the group dynamics and identify individuals who would fit in well. CEO Mirko Silz emphasizes the importance of a cheerful and spirited individual, as most of the work in front cooking revolves around interacting with guests. Being able to cook is simply not an important skill for the role here. The food is designed in a modular approach with a set menu, the execution of which can be trained within three days. Mirko says: “Our people have to be in good spirits and cheery, as 90 % of the work is in the front cooking area with guests. Someone who is shy has no chance with us. Our people act on the big stage. I always say: everything disappears, character remains.” The firm needs entertainers, not cooks. https://preview.redd.it/jc10vndno0yc1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f9fa449bdaa87063e2627c3f72a7e10f6a22299 In terms of the general economy, we are now in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crises. Germany is now in a full-blown recession and is experiencing a 5.7% contraction in its economic activity. Times are tough but Vapiano is unfazed. To the contrary, the group’s growth explodes. Four own-operated sites, four Joint Ventures, additional franchisee sites and new licenses are added so that by the end of the year there is a grant total of 55 restaurants across 12 European countries. The network sees growth in various German cities, including additional sites in Munich, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, and Berlin with a total of 37 self-operated sites in Germany alone. It’s common in franchising, for one franchisee to have multiple sites, especially if they are good operators. Big if and if they can prove that they can implement a process and local management that ensures smooth operations in one site freeing up own attention capacity to take on another site. Not a small challenge but if that happens it’s a win-win situation for both as the group knows they are partnering with a known and proven operator, generating additional revenues and profits and it’s great for the franchisee as he can grow his business portfolio with partners he knows, trusts and issues that have been battletested. The whole apparatus starts to work like a well-oiled machine. Revenue jumps by 56% to almost 69 million euros, operating profits reach 9.5 million euros. Impressive. Strong growth is there, yes, but it’s expensive. The expansion involves big sites, each requiring over one million euros in capital expenditure and a substantial amount of footfall to cover operating costs and recoup the initial capital outlay. 23 million euros are spent on capex but because operating cash f low is not sufficient to cover all costs the company needs to borrow an additional 12.5 million euros and raise c. 4 million in equity from investors. Through this equity round a new set of investors are joining the company, Hans-Joachim Sander (who also joins the advisory board) and Gisa Sander. The two are heirs to the very well-known German cosmetics label "Wella". Things are changing now. Gregor Gerlach, one of the founding investors, is now leading the supervisory board. He is stepping forward and expresses the intention for Vapiano to accelerate its growth, particularly internationally, in countries where there’s presence already. This is a logical strategic move, capitalizing on local brand recognition that has been built, leveraging local suppliers and knowledge, ensuring a smoother international expansion process. Amidst all the group’s success, a small cautionary note emerges. In September of 2009, a recently opened restaurant is facing insolvency. Although in the beginning the site is experiencing footfall and spent per the plan, the location is starting to experience atypical sales development thereafter. This is certainly new. The group decides it isn’t feasible running the property independently, emphasizing the need for the personal commitment of entrepreneurs, particularly in small and medium-sized cities. This might be a nothing burger – pun intended – but time will tell. Fun fact: all olive trees in the restaurants are real and sourced directly from Italy, handpicked for every location. https://preview.redd.it/16tkyhxqo0yc1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa2e7dd59977af4c2c86536fe381c962de897be6 Changing WaysIn the following year, 2010, the entire gastronomy industry in Germany is contracting by 0.4%. Not Vapiano however. The group is still growing sites and revenue climbs from 69 million to 85 million euros with operating profits jumping above 10 million for the first time in the company’s history. Most of the cash generated from operations is used for the expansion with the remaining cash used to repay some of the 27-million-euro debt load it has outstanding by year end 2009.Something feels different though. Yes, there is top line growth, but the rate of growth is slowing and interestingly the operating margin is falling as well, even if ever so slightly. Slippage creeping in? That year the group starts to explore projects that are tangent to the business but are arguably beyond its core competency. New concepts are being introduce such as the loyalty program that can be used by customers across all of Europe which is great for data collection purposes and building customer habit and stickiness. A female oriented magazine called “Vapiano Lady’s” is now being published. The “Viva Oliva” campaign is founded: an Olive Tree Festival which begins on Easter Sunday and runs for two weeks. During the time of “Viva Oliva” special attention is paid to products with olive content and in 2011, the Olive Tree Festival format is expanded to Vapiano restaurants abroad. All these new elements are designed to build customer connections and brand loyalty. Interestingly the same year, while all these new project and elements are starting up, perhaps a time to internally consolidate and clean up, the company announces it would abandon its current growth strategy and replace it with one that is much more aggressive. The new goal: doubling the number of sites from 2011 and 2014. Remember that we are now starting from a much larger base than the years before. The big focus is Europe, pushing the concept of “Fresh Casual Dining”, a category the company has invented in the German market. Based on the raw data it makes sense to hit the accelerator, after all same store sales (or Like-for-Like, LfL) grows 9% in Europe, clearly there is good demand for the product. What plays into management’s ambition and believes at the time, is the change ways of eating habits across Europe. The trend is moving away from heavy and fatty foods towards fresh and healthy meals and management is keen to lean into this, capitalising on customers embracing their newly found love for fresh and healthy foods. While all of this is unfolding, a telltale sign emerges on the horizon. In 2011 the original co-founders and shareholders Kent Hahne, Klaus Rader, Friedemann Findeis are selling their Vapiano ownership stakes. Kent Hahne was responsible for the company’s international expansion from 2004 to 2011, and he keeps several restaurants as a franchisee but in 2015 he would sell these restaurants too. Insiders and founders selling in the middle of an expansionary path can have many different reasons, so there is no point to speculate. What I will say however is that there is only one reason why founders and insiders keep their stake. All three men, Hahne, Rader and Findeis would later play a vital role in Vapiano’s fierce competitor, L’Osteria. The same year a new investor with a 40% stake emerges: Mayfair. Mayfair is the family office of Günter Herz and his sister Daniela Herz-Schnoeckl, heirs to the German multi-billion-euro empire Tchibo. Mayfair’s investment is not a simple silent equity stake in the business but is meant to support the company’s ambitious international and general expansion plans. Mirko Silz, CEO since 2006, leaves the company. He was the one who managed the rapid development phase as a central figure, the multi-city expansion and densification, the internationalization, the brand management and the implementation of systems, all success to date were done under his leadership. The second phase of Vapiano’s growth story, from 2006 until now, 2011, is now ending and a new era, one more heavily influenced by large capital and Mayfair is beginning. There is no official record on this, but Mirko apparently was uncomfortable with the speed of expansion that the new owners were aiming for with an eventual IPO in a couple of years. Whatever the reason for his departure, Gregor Gerlach has now become CEO and is pushing global expansion even harder. Amusingly, Mirko would later join his old companions Hahne, Rader and Findeis, becoming an important character in Vapiano’s competitor, L’Osteria. The remaining 60% stake of Vapiano is now held by the Sander couple and Gregor Gerlach. In terms of revenue, it’s another stellar year. For the very first time in the company’s short history, it hits the 100 million euros turnover mark, new owned and franchised restaurants are being opened while debt grows to almost 30 million euros. 33 own restaurants are now operational across Europe and there are over 100 Vapiano restaurants globally with 11 in the USA, four in South Korea, three in Saudi Arabia, two in Australia, one in Lebanon, Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey. It’s a tremendous effort by the company and the team to achieve this level of global of presences so rapidly. It’s far easier to comment in these situations from the sidelines but one does start to wonder whether an organization that size, structure, and experience can truly handle this kind of rapid expansion, even with the highest level of management talent. After all this isn’t a software company that can easily scale centrally, it’s an on-the ground, people, process, and operations heavy restaurant business. Anyway, the loyalty program is a big success, and several tens of thousands of customers are enrolling into it. But on the financial side, cracks are starting to emerge. While gross margins are holding up steadily and nicely at 74% (75% in prior years) operating margins are slipping further, from 12% to 9%. The operating profit of the business is now 9 million euros, this is less than in the previous year even though revenue has gone up by almost 20 million euros. Management says this is due to expenses related to the changes in management and unscheduled depreciation charges on licenses and usage rights. Unfortunately, I can’t strip these costs out, as they are not broken out or explained in the annual report. Same store sales (or Like-for-Like, LfL) in Europe are increasing by 20% which is a great sign to see (although there is no split between fully ramped and newer sites), demand for the company’s product certainly seems to be there. Just to give you a bit of a flavour on how ambitious Mayfair was with Vapiano. The Mayfair family office itself is in Hamburg and at the time, in 2011, there are three Vapianos in Hamburg. Mayfair’s goal was to increase that number from the current three to a total of six to ten restaurants in Hamburg alone. So, between 2012 and 2014 the expansion train continues. Revenue in 2012 grows to 118 million euros, albeit at a slower pace, and the company’s debt load increases to over 43 million. Net debt is now three times the size of the company’s operating profits, which is manageable and but it’s certainly not prudent. Operationally, the Company is busy with things beyond cooking good food and creating a good atmosphere for guests. Loyalty programs are being rolled out, the company becomes very active on social media, starts investing in online blogs, and launches a new website where Vapiano merchandise and gift cards can be bought. https://preview.redd.it/z5cixr1uo0yc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a8fb1a9cb79aef56b0ec912b3dc1fc70d50966c One year later growth slows further to 16%, revenue now reaching 136 million euros with gross margin holding up at roughly 75% but the operating profits slipping to its lowest point in years to only 7% of revenue or 9.6 million euros. The capital expenditures for tangibles like property, plant and equipment and intangibles like software and licenses, a.k.a. capex, is now so large, 20+ million euros, twice the size of the operating income of the business, that 14 million euros of new debt and 3 million euros in equity are raised. Total debt now stands at over 57 million euros with 4.5 million cash at hand. Net debt in relation to operating profits is now over five times. This is now a seriously leveraged business. We are now in the year 2013 and 20 new sites are being opened. The total number of restaurants in the network grows to 139 with presence in 27 countries. Without a doubt this type of presence raises the awareness of the brand amongst consumers. Interestingly though, the company no longer speaks about same-store-sales growth in its annual report. That year, many events are hosted by the company, all aimed at bringing the customers closer to the Vapiano brand. To that end, headcount in HQ is starting to grow and the total number of employees grows by 512 to 2,928 in one year. An increase of 21% while revenue grows by 15%. As always with increasing size, the organization becomes less efficient and personal costs as percentage of revenue increase from 36% in the prior year to 38% now. A new and refreshed design concept is introduced by our old friend Matteo Thun and rolled out, starting in Berlin. By this time Vapiano is 11 years old and the glossy shine of the new, fresh, up-and coming Italian restaurant is starting to fade. In all its previous years, the company was proud of the fact that it didn’t need any expansive and fancy marketing for its growth and was mostly driven by word of mouth, organically. This is now changing, and the group establishes its own marketing firm, Vapiano International Marketing GmbH. The new “Viva Oliva”, “Vapiano Ladies-Night” and “Vapiano-KIDs” events are all held in 2013 and a new marketing project is launched in 2014, a campaign with the name "HOME OF FRESHNESS". There is also a "HOME OF FRESHNESS" b2c film being developed, adaptable to different country preferences and the Vapiano “Photo Pool” is expanded for better image materials. A new Vapiano Design 2.0 concept is being introduced, a development of a standalone Vapiano restaurant in Fürth, Germany is introduced, and an improved bar concept. A lot of stuff is happening here. In April 2014 CEO Gregor Gerlach tells the business paper WirtschaftsWoche that he wants to double the number of restaurants every three years. To that end the group is planning to build its own real estate, like McDonalds does at times. The Company calls these Freestander – a freely standing restaurant away from the city centre. The reason behind this is that when you go into smaller cities, it requires a different format where you can no longer look for empty space in central areas. This is a clear shift (or addition) from (or to) the previous model. With this strategy the group could target city peripheries and Autobahn stops, thereby capturing more customer traffic. This is starting to sound very different from the metropolitan client base that the group once was targeting. Some of that initial alure and magic is being lost by pursuing this strategy and the question arises if that is compromising the appeal of the other locations in the network by taking this step. But strong growth ambitions and lack of sufficient white space requires a change in strategy. The new business projects don’t end there. The company introduces a drinks brand, Vapiano ICE TEA, with four flavour varieties, that are being rolled out in several European countries. A new app is introduced to replace the loyalty card and the company’s website is further developed. The loyalty program, VAPIANO PEOPLE is expanded into Sweden and the Netherlands gaining around 24,000 new members in 2014, a 15% increase from the previous year. The corporate design is further revised and so is the restaurant’s menu. Vapiano partners with star chef Cornelia Poletto to create new recipes but also encourages its own cooks and staff to suggest new recipes. It’s difficult to assess if this because dishes are getting stale or if it simply managements plan to extend the breadth of the menu with things like the specials. Other large Corporates, like McDonalds, run similar strategies where the classics are offered all year long while specials are introduced to the menu every so often to bring in some variety for those who are open to experiment and looking for new tastes and experiences without losing the popular dishes that have gained legitimacy and love by the customer over decades. The Company is starting to introduce new events. For example, on October 22nd, Vapiano celebrates its birthday with a special event known as Vapiano Day. On that day, all employees in global support functions join the restaurant teams to actively participate in the daily operations. It’s aimed to enhance collaboration between the restaurant staff and administrative personnel, fostering improved teamwork. A concept that most firms should adopt in my view. Further, throughout the year, the company also runs various activities engaging both guests and Vapiano staff, an effort designed to strengthen the connections with regular guests. There is a lot going on here, it’s hard to keep track. There is a hard push and investments being made into the Vapiano brand and keeping the customer engaged. The average spent per customer in the group increases by 3% compared to the previous year and the number of total guests increases by 6% to over 14 million across all restaurants. It’s however not clear how much of that 6% is organic grow, i.e. more guests in the same restaurants, and how much comes from new restaurant openings. One can tell from the language in the annual report that the front end of the business is running faster than the back end. There is language around changing and harmonising IT structures without having to rely too heavily on restaurant staff on the ground. Simultaneously the company is trying to have a tighter central grip by building a team that standardizes functions, processes, and guidelines. All these initiatives, products and events are happening while sales outside of Europe are actually shrinking by 1.3% to which CEO Gregor Gerlach, attributes operational hick-ups and having partnered with the wrong local people. Are you spreading yourself too thinly? One word pops up for the first time in the 2014 annual report that I haven’t heard or read before in the context of Vapiano. That word is “lifestyle”. For the first time the company calls itself a lifestyle brand. I am not sure what direction this restaurant chain is taking here but it’s becoming increasingly clear that more elements are added around the core competency and concept of providing fresh, tasty food in a positive and welcoming atmosphere. I will say however, that as an outsider standing by the sidelines, it’s always much, much easy to make suggestions and comments than being in the arena yourself. Anyways, during the year, as it has been the case in all previous years, new sites are being opened. The f final count by the end the year: 152 restaurants in 29 countries. Revenue grows to 152 million euros, but the rate of growth slows yet again to 12% from 16% in the previous year. The base effect is kicking in. Simultaneously personnel expenses grow 13%, further deteriorating margins. Gross margins are stable at 77%, an exceptionally good margin by the way, but operating margins further slips to 6%. The group’s operating profits with 9.5 million euros is now below the previous year, even though turnover grew by almost 15 million. You don’t need to be business genius to understand that there are too many corporate shenanigans happening here, with magazines, periphery products and events that blow up overheads and distracts from the core business that could be incredibly profitable. From 2011 to 2014 the company’s administrative costs increase by 120% to more than 20 million euros. The cost of employee training increases by 50%. There is a level of professionalism and back office investment necessary for the international expansion and that doesn’t come cheap. All the while, operationally, the US-business is struggling. Two US-locations are shutting down and a new management team is trying the turn things around. Vapiano’s proposition and core strength is freshness, atmosphere, and design, not something the average American quick service restaurant eater cares much for. The group’s operating cash flow is 19 million euros that year covering all capital expenditures for site openings, maintenance of the existing portfolio and the remodeling with the refreshed design. No debt or equity is raised, instead 2.1 million euros of debt is repaid. Capitalism is working here at all times and in a capitalistic system, economic success attracts competition. Vapiano is increasingly fighting a wave of new chains popping up, all chasing the same mouths. Brands like Dean & David (salads), Hans im Glück (burgers), L’Osteria (pizza and pasta), BackWerk (bakery) and many others are all trying to grab a piece of the, albeit growing, pie – yes, pun intended. Even ex-Porsche CEO Wendelin Wiedeking wants a piece of the action and starts his own pizza & pasta chain called Tialini and when launched in 2013 the concept was aiming for 20 sites in the medium term. There are five in place today. Finding a concept with broad market fit and then executing and scaling it in a competitive market is not easy. Vapiano had first mover advantages, executed growth well initially and through its achieved scale had a capital as an advantage. But things are about to get spicy here at Vapiano, so stay tuned. If you enjoyed the read, sign up here: WIP Thomas Weitzendoerfer Substack |
2024.05.01 01:09 Z010X Let's talk about "If you did your research..."
2024.04.30 17:46 ABCDnix Start TRT Today. Will this journey be worth it?
Hello there good people. 35M here and I will be expecting my delivery from TRTNation today. submitted by ABCDnix to Testosterone [link] [comments] After reading through a few thousand posts it seems TRT might give me boost I’ve been searching for. Have typical symptoms such as lessened desire to initiate sex (sometimes feels like a chore), less impact in the gym, I’ve been working out regularly for about 10 years I can bench 245lbs right now. Stubborn and annoying belly fat, it’s not extreme, my waist is 36 inches I think. Have never been able to lean out abdomen region. Lack of energy bla bla. But really most of all, I want libido back. I wanna do things I was able to do 10 years ago again. I miss it. I’ve also been weirdly emotional and the tears somehow come randomly when I find myself in deep thought. Including a snippet of bloodwork if curious on my levels. I did bloodwork and made sure it had all the markers TRTNation said it should have and I signed up on their site. Had an appointment a week later and 7 days after the initial consult mypackage is arriving around lunchtime. TRTNation was super nice answered all questions. If I want hand holding, they are readily available. But some of your own knowledge will help too. They have all sorts of compounds I want to try but Test Cyp is the first step. I love this is legal. I tried Defy Medical cause they have the best reviews but geeeez they are expensive. Just for the medical professionals to say “hello”, you’re out $900+. TRTNation includes the consultation!!!!! How is that not a no-brainer!?!? Another local clinic also had dumbass pricing. I’ll be on Test Cyp 100/wk and HCG, I’ve read great things about the effects of HCG so stay tuned with that (if you want to know that is). Wife knows and she’s kinda hoping I get my groove back too so if it works, I’m good in that area. Never been the push around guy. I always stand my ground, I don’t go looking for fights and they never find me. But those I care for, I stand on business. Hoping this won’t take me over the edge in those areas. I hope my weekly updates are insightful to the readers of this post. I’m open to answering questions if you have any. Till the next update, bye for now. If there are any typos, I truly apologize. |