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I posted this image on this sub earlier saying that it was obviously AI Generated, and was downvoted to oblivion because it's just "age old digital painting techniques" and that this "doesn't look like AI."
I posted this because the original artist was claiming that they didn't use AI and used that reasoning to scam people out of commissions and Kofi donations. They used this stance to gain a ton of followers (a couple thousand) in a single day, whom were coming to their defense as they claimed that everything was hand drawn and explicitly that AI was not used at all. This is important to highlight, because they used the benefit of the doubt and the growing discourse to gain from it all. The lying about it was the whole point.
I use AI, I love using it, but I'm open about it. I understand that people don't want to be sold anything that uses AI generation and I support their decision to do so - I think being transparent about its use is good for everyone. This person was hypocritically using AI to do the bulk of their work but publicly denouncing it, going so far as acting like the accusations were utterly unthinkable. So that artist gained thousands of followers illegitimately who took their side, most-to-all of them followers that hate AI and couldn't believe that so many people were dogpiling on this artist and that it was "clearly painted by them".
So this person gained a large following by using AI, lying about it, and then used that growing following to take commissions from people and gained Kofi donations, all under the pretense that they were not using AI generation whilst doing so.
So a bunch of users found their SeaArt account along with the base AI generated images that were then (crudely) painted over, they crumbled and admitted to using AI. They have since deleted their account completely. The artist' name was si12o2 on Twitter before deletion. You can search the name and follow the previous discourse there.
I'm posting about this for a couple reasons:
The first is that sometimes it feels fucking GOOD to be right all along. Vindication is a good feeling, and I'm not going to apologise for that, but there's a more important reason that I'll go into at the end.
Here's the thing: this work is so obviously AI Generated and yet a whole bunch of people on this subreddit couldn't tell:

We are also getting a lot of people seeing digital art tricks and crying AI when it isn't.
This is what makes me laugh. You've got people here even saying this, that, and the other, are all "clearly AI" when it's just age old digital art techniques. Not that AI doesn't happen of course. But people become a "experts" on the AI side but clearly have no experience with digital art.
There's nothing obviously AI generated about this to me. It's not good art imo but that doesn't mean it's AI, there's tons of bad art out there.

Here's the most important thing - whether we love or hate AI (and I am firmly in the "love it" camp), it isn't good enough that people in this sub can't identify whatever THIS IS as being AI generated, let alone some regular ludd on Facebook who believes whatever junk they see without question:
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AI Generated content is just going to get harder and harder to parse as we go, and if we can't figure out that even this super easy to spot stuff is AI, how are we going to have any hope of questioning more sinister content when Text2Vid takes off for consumers, is being used by foreign political powers to spread misinformation and undermine trust in image and video content?
We need to do better - If you can't spot that the very obvious AI mottling pattern on an anime girl's tights is made with AI generative tech, you could be lead to believe anything. Thousands of people today were fooled into thinking that an AI artist was purely traditional and being witchhunted just because they insisted that they didn't use AI, and then coming here to highlight this I was also downvoted for pointing out how crazy it is that people were fooled, and got the SAME benefit of the doubt.
I'll say it one more time - I LOVE AI IMAGE GEN, but for goodness sake we need to do better at questioning things, especially when we are enthusiasts of the tech, use it regularly and should be able to spot it when it's used and can use that to let others know that they're being mislead.
Please, for the love of God, do better. If your parents are liking fake, dirisive and polarising AI generated content on social media, tell them. If your friends are falling for obviously faked content, tell them. If you aren't sure if something is AI generated or not, look closely at it. If you really can't tell, ask for second opinions, because you could be like one of these people looking at something falsified by admission and shrugging your shoulders and saying "nah, looks real to me."
Please.

According to President Ronald Reagan, “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’” The attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana tend to agree, at least when it comes to federal government involvement in social media platforms’ content moderation policies…
On March 18, the justices will hear oral arguments in a case, Murthy v. Missouri, in which the two states and several individuals claim that federal officials violated the First Amendment in their efforts to “help” social media companies combat mis- and disinformation about COVID-19 and other matters…
This is one of several landmark social media cases the Court is hearing this term, including Lindke v. Freed and O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier, in which they will decide if and when government officials may block private citizens from commenting on their personal social media accounts…
Former national security official and current Harvard Law lecturer, Timothy Edgar ’97, believes that both the states and the federal government have valid arguments, and argues that the justices should channel the spirit of that famous 18th century publisher and postmaster, Benjamin Franklin, who was a proponent of both neutrality and rational discourse…
Timothy Edgar:
Missouri among other states and individuals are arguing that the Biden administration’s involvement in trying to suppress COVID-19 misinformation, especially about vaccines, crossed the line from being public health education to being censorship, by proxy. They argue that the administration was making very aggressive, specific suggestions to those social media companies, either to remove or to downgrade certain kinds of posts, and that by doing that, they transformed the private decisions that those companies made — principally Facebook and Twitter, now X — into public decisions, and that would amount to censorship.
The federal government says this was a voluntary, cooperative effort between social media and the government to combat misinformation and improve public health. They also argue that the government has long engaged in public health education and that even if the government expresses its views bluntly, it has a responsibility to express those views. The First Amendment and concerns about censorship, they say, don’t prevent the government from expressing an opinion about what information is or isn’t truthful when it comes to public health…”
My opinion is that they’re both right and that we need to get some clarity from the courts about where that line is between engagement and public health…
In his early days, Franklin was a printer in Philadelphia and a postmaster. When he was criticized by a number of the citizens of Philadelphia for publishing a controversial essay, Franklin wrote a famous response called “An Apology for Printers,” which is a defense of the idea that printers should be neutral. Here’s the quote:
“Printers are educated in the Belief, that when Men differ in Opinion, both Sides ought equally to have the Advantage of being heard by the Publick; and that when Truth and Error have fair Play, the former is always an overmatch for the latter: Hence they chearfully serve all contending Writers that pay them well, without regarding on which side they are of the Question in Dispute.”
Franklin was defending the idea that there’s a role for service providers — publishers, printers, platforms — to share information and arguing that, if we say that they must agree with everything that’s on their service, then we cut off debate. It is an argument grounded in an enlightenment faith in the idea of rational discourse. Of course, it doesn’t answer the question of whether we should print literally everything — which Franklin did not believe — or when and how platforms should moderate content. But it embodies a certain faith in the marketplace of ideas.
Franklin is making two arguments in his essay. One is the enlightenment idea of rational debate: that the truth will win out. But it also has this very pragmatic point, which is that neutrality is good for business. Printers were natural monopolies in a way that social media platforms can be as well…to serve the public, you need a platform — a printing shop and now a digital platform — that maintains some level of neutrality in order to have a democratic system of government…
When the government communicates with distributors of information, in that case, book publishers, if they do it in a way that makes those businesses feel like they have no choice but to comply, then those actions will be seen as government actions. And they will be seen as a form of censorship that is prohibited by the First Amendment unless there’s some legal basis for censorship…
You can look at this example from Franklin’s life and see some of both sides of what the justices will be deciding in this case. The platform should be neutral. In general, they should aspire to further public debate and that, even when they think something they allow to remain posted to the platform is wrong, they should have some faith in rational discourse. But there is a line, and the platforms or the printers can draw that line where they choose...
The government has a responsibility to inform the public and to engage with digital platforms. They may even criticize digital platforms if they feel that their moderation decisions are being driven by private profits at the expense of the public interest…The government can make rational arguments. What it cannot do is to invoke its power — even implicitly — in a way that makes platforms feel they have no good option but to do what the government says… The government has an important role and responsibility here to be engaging with private platforms, and not just on public health, but on issues of terrorism, and extremism and violence, on issues of taking down illegal content like child sexual abuse material. When there are foreign, state sponsored disinformation campaigns, the government is uniquely positioned to let the platforms know about them. So, they need to be involved with Facebook, X, Google, YouTube, all the big social media companies…
…there’s a difference between X and Facebook and the New York Times. Platforms make content moderation decisions. The New York Times makes editorial decisions. Both are protected by the First Amendment, but they are different decisions, and different considerations apply when deciding when government pressure crosses the line. And this gets back to our discussion of Benjamin Franklin. In the social media space, content moderation may deprive a speaker of the practical ability to have access to digital public square...

The kitchen is on fire. Welcome to the final part of the Vapiano story where the tables are turning. In the first two episodes we followed Mark Korzilius' journey from setbacks to founding Vapiano, a groundbreaking restaurant concept, highlighting its fresh ingredients, dynamic atmosphere, and data-driven operations that drove rapid success. While achieving initial profitability and garnering attention from industry giants like McDonald's, Vapiano's global expansion has led to stellar revenue growth. However, it has also resulted in the emergence of numerous side projects (or distractions), operational challenges, increased costs, significant investments, and a notable accumulation of debt. This underscores the prioritization of top-line growth over profitable growth. We will continue on this thread and see how the story ends, but I would encourage you to read part one and two for better context. Vapiano P1: Italian Food Made in Germany (substack.com). Let's dig in.
Before Going Public
We are now in 2015 and the year is a disaster for Vapiano's PR department. Employee time stamps are being manipulated, endless overtime for employees and high turnover in managerial roles are reported; mice in the kitchen and even rotten food allegedly found.
The company is confronted with allegations of exceeding working hours among trainees in an article published by Welt am Sonntag, while the same outlet accuses Vapiano of manipulating punch times. The auditing firm PwC is commissioned to investigate the allegations and finds that there is no systematic approach but rather misconduct by individual employees, a mistake that’s being corrected. Internal however, investigations into stamp times are carried out regularly now and beyond its obvious reputational impact, this sucks up valuable management time and attention.
In the summer of 2015 CEO, co-founder and investor Gregor Gerlach, who has been running the group since 2011 is stepping down and Jochen Halfmann is taking over. A new Vapiano People Program with an App is being developed with the aim to better interact with customers that will incorporate innovate features such as mobile pay. The German website sees a launch of new magazine to further promote the brand and there is now a full inhouse blogger and Instagram team being installed. In October the company buys seven restaurants from original co-founder, former co-investor and ex-president previously responsible for internation expansion Kent Hahne (2x Bonn, 3x Cologne, 1x Koblenz and one in Cologne that’s under construction). This package of Vapiano restaurants is very successful and generates net sales of more than 20 million euros in 2014. Hahne opened his first Vapiano restaurant in Cologne in August 2006 and in 2015 with his company apeiron AG, Hahne operates six L'Osteria franchise restaurants, a direct Vapiano competitor, and two self-owned restaurants GinYuu.
Then in November of 2015, the next public relations bomb goes off with allegations regarding the company's quality standards. The company immediately investigates the issue through internal and external specialists but finds no evidence of any quality issues. Nevertheless, knowing that the group is now being closely watched, the company’s already in place hygiene standards are being reinforced. Additional audits and inspections are performed nationally. Further, all Vapianos worldwide are being audited twice by the partners SGS Institut Fresenius and SAI Global. Auditing software is purchased to simplify the implementation of the audits and the resulting measures. Apart from the external examinations, there is a food sampling plan in place being performed continuously. Again, all of this sucks up costs, management time and attention. With all these tumultuous developments the company’s growth engine is undeterred. Revenue grows by a whopping 50 million euros to 202 million euros, an increase of 33%. Impressive. While average spent per customer increases in all countries, the number of customers per day in Germany decreases by 3.3% partially due to the negative press towards the end of the year. Five own, four JV and 19 new franchise restaurants are added that year to the group, the total number of own managed restaurants grows to 51, there are 31 JVs and 84 franchises which bringing the total to 166 Vapiano restaurants. Global restaurant sales are now above 400 million euros.
But while revenue grows by an astronomical 50 million euros, operating profits, alarmingly, shrink again. Gross margins are staying perfectly healthy above 75% but operating costs keep growing disproportionately fast. The Company’s outstanding debt jumps by almost 30 million, close to 85 million euros by the end of the year. With operating profits at 9.5 million euros, alarm bells should be going off right now.
In Q4 of 2015, new CEO Jochen Halfmann introduces Strategy 2020. The new strategy includes five essential points. One, profitable growth in the newly defined core markets of Germany and Austria as well as in the UK, Netherlands, France and USA. Two, operational excellence through strict “best practice” management. Three, further development and digitalization of the concept considering guest feedback. Four, greater focus on long-term employee retention and five, building a modern and sustainable IT landscape. Sound’s good on paper but let’s see how things pan out.
Vapiano's investments (capital expenditures) that year are primarily directed towards new restaurant openings, renovations of existing establishments, and share acquisitions in other Vapiano restaurants from franchisees or JV partners. A significant portion of funds is allocated to the digitalization of the guest experience, including the development of a new app scheduled for market release in 2016 and the implementation of a time recording system across all group restaurants. The world's first standalone Vapiano restaurant with a delivery service that year is built in Fürth, Germany. The company keeps expanding its presence in both inner-city locations and international markets, such as Shanghai, China.
To finance all of this, the group has its own operating cash flow which comes in at 18 million while capital expenditures are 26 million euros plus 14 million for acquisitions. The funding gab is filled with 26 million euros of new debt and a seven-million-euro equity raise. At that end of the year and after the equity raise Gregor Gerlach (through his AP Leipzig GmbH & Co. KG entity) holds 30.1%, Hans-Joachim and Gisa Sander through their Exchange Bio GmbH hold 25.5% and the Tchibo heirs, Herz through their Mayfair Beteiligungsfonds II GmbH & Co. KG hold 44,4%.
But for the first time the restaurant’s concept that was so successful to date is being questioned. Some customers are starting to mislike the operational flow of the concept itself. If you want pasta, you must queue for pasta. If you want pizza you stand in a different queue. A small side salad, yet another queue. "You spend more time carrying trays than an actress in Berlin-Mitte. The audience in the pasta limbo can only consist of people who have worked for an insurance company for a long time and, like Stockholm syndrome, they can no longer get away from the industrial canteen feeling," writes TV host Beisenherz provocatively. While overly harsh in his assessment he's not entirely wrong judging by customers venting their frustrations in forums and social media channels. It isn’t uncommon for those who ordered pizza to have already finished eating while there is little movement in the pasta queue. Long term that doesn't go down well, QSRs competitors like L’Osteria are handling this process differently, with much success.
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Tipping Point

Where are now in the year 2016 and things start to deteriorate visibility. Perhaps not for the leman’s eye but any business minded observer can see that there are problems under the hood. Yes, revenue grows yet another whopping 50 million to almost 250 million euros but half of that growth, comes from acquisitions of restaurants that the group didn’t already own 100%, which is now being fully consolidated within the group’s accounts. Here is a concrete example. In the past, Vapiano SE, the group’s top holding company held an indirect 50% stake in a French subgroup via the subsidiary VAP Restaurants SA, based in Luxembourg, and included this as an associated company in the Vapiano SE consolidated financial statements using the equity method. Due to the acquisition of additional shares in September of 2016, Vapiano SE's indirect share in the French subgroup increased to 75%. This means that Vapiano SE takes control of the French subgroup, which is therefore included in the group’s financial statements as part of the full consolidation. The revenue from the acquired subsidiary now recorded in the consolidated income statement amounts to 12.8 million euros. While that’s great for the top line, the loss of the fully consolidated entity equates to 0.2 million euros. Yes, you are buying revenue, but there are losses attached to them, not profits. A similar case is the Swedish entity that runs eight restaurants with revenue of 11.5 million euros but has losses of 235 thousand euros. So much for Strategy 2020 and “profitable” growth.
That year the group’s operating profits are absolutely tanking, halving to 3.5 million euros. Operating profits are now a mere 1,4% of revenue. Remember original founder Mark Korzilius who talked about operating margins of 25% to 28% at the restaurant level? Yes, there are overhead costs for the organization that sits above the chain of restaurants, but operating margins that low indicates a course correction is needed. What’s telling is that in the annual report, in the management discussion section, the company starts talking about EBITDA as a proxy measure of profitability, rather than operating profit or net income. This wasn’t the case in the years before. Is this window dressing for an upcoming IPO? EBITDA is short for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. How can you measure profitability of a restaurant chain that absolutely and unequivocally needs capital investment to maintain its restaurant operations, the very source of cash generation, by simply excluding this maintenance charge (depreciation in the income statement)? Vapiano’s own annual report talks about the fact that existing restaurants must be rejuvenated from time to time and that new interior designs have to be implemented every few years. These things wear and tear, they go out of style, kitchen equipment breaks and needs replacement. This business absolutely needs maintenance capital expenditure, why anyone talks of profits before these maintenance costs is beyond me. Fun fact: in the previous annual report EBITDA is mentioned seven times, mostly around restaurant acquisitions and financing, not however as a profit indication for the group. In the new annual report, EBITDA is mentioned 28 times. Maybe it’s just me but belated Charlie Munger liked to call EBITDA: bullsh*t earnings. When in doubt I stick with Charlie. Interestingly, EBITDA for Vapiano keeps growing while operating and net profits keep falling.
Operating cashflow for the group that year is about 21 million euros, but capital expenditure is 30 million and acquisitions for subsidiaries another 20 million. To finance these expenditures another 28 million euros of debt and 16 million of equity is raised. Net debt rises above 130 million euro. The operating cashflow of the group before any capital expenditures is 21 million euros. I am not sure free cash flow would be significantly positive after maintenance capex is paid out; it’s not broken out so we can’t be sure. Granted, I am not on the ground during this time, and I am not in the board room, I am simply reading what’s in front of me, but to me this is starting to look like a distressed situation. Regardless, the following year the company goes public.

IPO

Where are now in the year 2017 and its Vapiano’s first year as public company. The company’s annual report reads the following “Sales revenue, like-for-like growth (LfL) and the earnings figures EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are used as the most important financial performance indicators for controlling operational business activities.” The very same report however also says: “The majority of the group's investments regularly go towards opening new restaurant locations and modernizing existing restaurants. The latter are differentiated into regular replacement investments that occur during ongoing operations (Maintenance CAPEX) and fundamental investments in the renovation of a restaurant (Remodeling CAPEX). On average, a restaurant remodeling takes place nine years after opening.” It says it right there in their own report; every nine years a remodeling is taking place. Remodeling and updating is not cost free, so why exclude depreciation charges which reflect capital expenditures? I understand that perhaps you would want to strip out one-off opening costs, that’s fine and fair, but don’t go overboard.
The number of restaurants increases by 26 (previous year: 13) to a total of 205. The increase consists of 27 new openings and one closure. Group revenue grows to an astonishing 325 million euros but here comes the shocker, operating profits turn negative to 25 million. Fine, strip out foreign exchange losses of 3 million, IPO costs of 5.8 million and new opening costs of 6.1 million and you still have 10 million euros of operational losses. All the while the debt load of almost 130 million hasn’t materially changed, so those operating losses are before a six-million-euro interest payment. 184 million euros are raised through the IPO of which 85 million go to the company. This money is earmarked for further expansion as the group has ambitions to almost double the footprint to 330 restaurants by the end of 2020. The company is currently not profitable on an operating basis, and still wants to expand aggressively? I don’t get it. The remaining 100 million euros of the IPO money raised is distributed to co-founder Gregor Gerlach and Wella heirs Hans-Joachim and Gisa Sander. The family office of the former Tchibo owners Günter and Daniela Herz with a 44% stake, don’t sell a single share. After the IPO, 32% of all the company’s shares are now in free float.
One year later, in 2018, things get even worse. Revenue grows to 371 million, but operating losses mount to 85 million euros, that’s before interest expenses of 9 million. Even the beloved EBITDA figure turns negative, meaning the operating business before any expansionary or even maintenance capital expenditures is loss making. All regions are experiencing significant deterioration in their earnings profiles. Like for like sales are down 1% across the board. That’s revenue, not profitability. The question naturally arises: is the Group approaching its natural saturation point here or this operational by nature? The operating cash flow is now 9 million while financing cost are close to 7 million. That leaves 2 million for maintenance capital for 74 own restaurants and 76 joint ventures ones. Describing this as financially tight, would be an understatement.
Things are not looking good at this point. Yet the company still grows restaurants by 26 new sites. 64 million euros are spent on acquisitions, new openings, and maintenance costs, financed through a 20 million-euro equity raise and 72 million of new debt. The Company now has net debt outstanding of over 160 million euros. After the equity raise and by the end of the year 2018, Mayfair owns 47.4%, VAP Leipzig, Gregor Gerlach’s entity owns 18.9% and the Sander couple own 15.5% of the company. Yes, the Sanders and Gerlach may have taken 100 million euros off the table, but they still have substantial skin in the game. Plus, Mayfair hasn’t sold a single share and instead injects more money into the company through the equity round. The stock has now fallen from its IPO price of 23 euros per share to under 6 euros by the end of 2018. Something must be done here. And indeed, there is pivot in strategy and a hard push for change. At last, the management team abandons its aggressive growth plan and curtails new openings significantly. Additionally, the team wants to run a thorough analysis of weak locations to then either discontinue or sell sites. In Europe, the operating focus will be put on corporate restaurants and joint ventures in major cities to ensure the ideal size and location to match the respective demographic target group. Outside of Europe, the franchising business is being expanded and at the same time a consolidation of the existing corporate and joint venture markets is being sought. All future investments will be reviewed to achieve higher rates of returns on new openings. Investments are also being made in the renovation of older restaurants. The goal in the future is to also open smaller formats, like Mini-Vapianos (less than 400 square meters) or Freestander at prominent transportation hubs outside city centers (currently in Fürth and Toulouse) to cater to individual location requirements, and to enter new partnerships. I am not sure why management hasn’t stopped all expansion altogether, bringing the ship in order first, getting profitable, clean up, all hands-on deck before considering any further expansions whatsoever. But again, it’s easy to comment from the sidelines; maybe they saw white spaces that would be covered by competing concepts if they weren’t moving fast and aggressively enough. Although pushing internationally means competing with local players such as Jamie's Italian, Prezzo, Pizza Express, Wagamama, Nando's and many more which brings in its own dynamic.
Management also aims to enhance guest satisfaction. This involves refining operational processes, reorganizing the support center, and refocusing on the core offering: providing fresh and high-quality Italian food at affordable prices for a broad audience. The group also aims to reduce waiting times, especially during lunch, while also improving the evening atmosphere. There is even what I would call an evolution, away from Vapiano’s original concept, reorientating the customer journey. The ordering flow is being changed, offering guests synchronized preparations of all dishes while eliminating wait times at the cooking stations. The open show kitchen remains, staying true to original mantra of freshness and transparency but now guests can choose their preferred method of ordering through a mobile app, using a digital order point (kiosk), or by personally placing an order with a waiter. Guests can still freely choose their table and are then informed about the complete preparation of their order through a pager or their smartphone. This is a substantial deviation from the original concept, but a needed one. The group is also exploring and implementing the expansion of take-away and home delivery services but only at suitable locations, not universally across new openings. I am not sure why home delivery is even a priority here; it adds operational complexity. It’s better to clean up shop first and get back to the basics before adding new complexities. To be fair management does try to simplify. There are 49 different permanent dishes on the menu and additional 10 seasonal ones. Customers can choose from eleven different types of pasta. There is simply too much choice, and it makes orders complicated. The company announced to slim the menu down to its most popular and typical Vapiano dishes. There’s no need for an Asian salad at an Italian restaurant. "We have to go back to the roots, i.e. classic, honest Italian cuisine" says COO Everke. Regardless, in November of 2018, the supervisory board pulls the plug on CEO Jochen Halfmann and replaces him with Cornelius Everke. Everke himself has just become COO five months ago. Since 2017 he was responsible for international expansion. From 2011 to 2017 that role was filled by Mario Bauer – put a pin in that name, he’ll play a key role in the groups fate later. Then nine months later, in the middle of 2019, Cornelius Everke quits. He essentially concludes that his skillset and experience in the areas of internation expansion is no longer needed in the foreseeable future. To put it differently: Vapiano has moved from a growth story and has become a restructuring case, and other skills are required for that job. In June of 2019 Everke says the following “(we’ve) made a bit of a mistake when it came to foreign expansion”. No sh#t. Vapiano postpones the presentation of the 2018 annual financial statements three times in the spring of 2019, citing negotiations over an urgently needed loan of 30 million euros. It’s not until the end of May that a binding loan commitment comes through from the financing banks and major shareholders.
We are now in August of 2019 and the corona pandemic is just around the corner. Supervisory board chief Vanessa Hall takes over as interim-CEO and things are unravelling. Visitor numbers are declining; originally, it was planned to sell the US business but halfway through the year the buyer cannot come up with the money. But not all restaurants are performing poorly. The group's poor figures contrast starkly as an example with the experiences of the Swiss-German franchisee, who runs six restaurants. The Sodano family in Switzerland pays Vapiano a royalty of 6% of sales for the use of the brand. Enrico Sodano explains in an interview that they operate largely autonomously from the licensor. If an “accident” were to occur, he could immediately replace the Vapiano sign with Sodano, he says. The family concluded the rents and contracts with employees and suppliers independently. The Sodano family have six locations in Bern, Basel and Zurich, around one million guests every year and 350 employees. Things are going well on the ground. The delivery service they’ve built is offering them a second income stream. Expansion into Winterthur, St. Gallen and Lucerne are being planned; small locations with 150 to 250 square meters and an attached delivery service. Originally, Vapiano restaurants used to be huge but for such a large restaurant to be profitable, 800 to 1,000 guests per day are needed. That’s possible in medium-sized cities, but not in smaller towns which is why the Vapiano group now also supports smaller formats. Back to our corporate drama. The 2019 annual report would be the last report the group files. By the end 2019 the outstanding debt of the company is at an astronomical 450 million euros. Revenue has grown by another 7%, produced by four net new openings through two JVs and two franchise restaurants but operating losses come in at 317 million euros. That sound like an absolute shocker at first but depreciation and amortization charges are 345 million, so that operating cash flow is actually positive but unfortunately capital expenditures and interest payments are so large that they are eating up all of the company’s operating cash flow. Then in the beginning of 2020 Corona hits with full force and the world shuts down. As a result of the measures to prevent further spreading of the virus, the group is forced to cease all global business operations (except in Sweden). While all these shutdowns are happening, the group is the middle of negotiating with its lending banks and main shareholders. There are additional financing needs for restructuring measures, even without a pandemic happening in the background. The situation is so dire that the company starts pleading to the German government to roll out the package of financial help more quickly. Unfortunately, it’s to no end. The rapid closure of restaurants and the resulting lack of operating cash inflows in conjunction with the additional financing requirements, lead to the company’s final knockout punch. In April of 2020, the Vapiano group officially files for insolvency proceedings. The end of an era.

New Beginnings

Because of the pandemic, the majority of the group's subsidiaries in Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, the United States, Sweden, and China also file for insolvency or seek liquidation. The US business never gets sold in the end and is wound down. In the summer of 2020, significant group divestments occur, including the sale of 75% shares in the group's French subsidiaries, shares in franchisor companies, Australian subsidiaries, German subsidiaries, associated companies, self-managed restaurants in Germany, and insolvency-related sales in the Netherlands, Great Britain, and Sweden. The buyer of the Vapiano brand and one of these bundles of Vapiano restaurants is company named Love & Food Restaurant Holding, a consortium led by Mario C. Bauer – a name I told you to remember. Bauer was a former Vapiano board member and led the national and international expansion, opening 200 sites in 33 countries from 2011 to 2017 until he was succeeded by Cornelius Everke. Bauer didn’t feel comfortable with the IPO at the time but clearly has a lot of managerial and entrepreneurial talent.
The buyer consortium is an absolute A-Team comprised of European QSR top league hitters, including the founder of the Pret A Manger chain Sinclair Beecham; Henry McGovern, the founder and Ex-CEO of the giant international restaurant and foodservice operator AmRest; the Van der Valk Family that runs hotels and Vapiano restaurants in the Netherlands, and co-founder and ex-CEO Gregor Gerlach. The acquisition value is 15 million euros and entails 30 Vapiano restaurants in Germany, albeit that’s just the purchase price which comes on top of any capital investment needed to refresh and return the sites to its former glory. Nevertheless, just as a thought experiment, if you can get each site to 2 million euros of revenue and 400,000 euros in operating profit on average, which wouldn’t be an overly aggressively assumption given the company’s history, you’ve got yourself a package that can deliver restaurant-level operating profits of 12 million euros or more. It’s not disclosed how much capex was needed to refresh the operations, just that fact that the overall investment plus purchase price was a middle double-digit million-euro figure. Stil, it probably was a decent purchase. The same consortium buys Vapiano’s French business for 25 million euros just two weeks prior. After the transaction concludes, the master franchise is given to Delf Neumann and his Gastro & Soul GmbH. Neumann is an experienced operator, and he is ambitious to revitalise the brand with new services and products. For example, instead of pizza, the restaurants will be serving pinsa - a flatbread made from sourdough, wheat and rice flour, topped similarly to a pizza. It targets a more health-oriented customer base looking for a less calory heavy option. The menu overall is expanded by including a variety of vegan and vegetarian dishes.
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Today Neumann’s Gastro & Soul GmbH operates 18 Vapianos on its own account and has 29 franchise sites, amongst other brands. By the year 2021, Vapiano operates 191 restaurants in 34 countries. This is around 50 fewer sites than before the bankruptcy. The number of branches is particularly thinned out in Germany – from 80 to 55. Nevertheless, Vapiano's home country remains by far the largest market, followed by France with 35 restaurants and Austria with 15 locations. “We have shrunk ourselves to health,” says Bauer in the aftermath and there is no further shrinking planned. Quite the opposite, the smell of expansion is in the air again – pun intended. Not as aggressively as before and with a new menu and ordering process.
Overall, the team around Bauer is filled with industry experts with knowledge and networks gained over decades who have a great track record, a long-term view, and the staying power to let Vapiano breath and finds its way back to success. The pressure of being a public company with all the associated quarterly, half-year and yearly disincentives have been removed. The menu is changed and extended with new types of pasta and sauces with significantly more vegetarian and vegan dishes available. Guests can order with restaurant staff, at terminals or on their phones and there are barcodes attached to the tables identify the respective seat. The food is brought to your table, all at the same time if you are in a group, no more annoyances with waiting in line. There is a plan for smaller, 350 square meter locations, with half the number of guests and significantly fewer staff and less set-up costs required to make the economics work. Locations that capitalize on remote work and increased demand for local lunch options, higher population density with shorter delivery routes and therefore cost-effective in house delivery services are targeted. And Bauer is testing the concept of ghost kitchens, which operate without a dining room or service staff, focusing solely on preparing food for delivery services, which for obvious reasons have a very different operational set up and footprint. Original founder Mark Korzilius however is not entirely convinced. He is not a fan of the pinsa for instance and he considers Vapiano's pizza as its cash cow, flagship product and believes that the core Vapiano proposition of Pizza, Pasta, Bar that has given the company its original success is being diluted. He instead admires the competitor L'Osteria, saying they’ve done a better job by focusing on Italian classics, especially the impressively large pizzas that sticks out beyond the plate is leaving every customer in awe. The guys who run L’Osteria are the same guys who have built Vapiano with him in the first place. Bauer on the other hand, like a true business leader, remains undeterred, stating that he is frequently asked whether Vapiano's restart was bold or foolish. He believes in entrepreneurship, franchising, in his experienced fellow partners and importantly the Vapiano concept. By the year 2024 you can find over 140 Vapiano branded restaurant in 27 countries across the globe, including locations far away from its birthplace like Australia, USA, Columbia, Chile, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. And why not? Italian food is, and will remain to be, incredibly popular. Vapiano offers fresh and tasty food at affordable prices in a good atmosphere. This combination of attributes should attract a lot of customers. It certainly has in the past.
For more stories: WIP Thomas Weitzendoerfer Substack

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Recap: In Part 1 I looked at how the family began their wild journey with the American Family Road Trip social media accounts in 2018. With Part 2, I looked at the family's decisions through the pandemic, purchasing land and a Tiny House, only to eventually sell it all and go back RVing full time. They had a few weird months towards the end of 2021 where the family camped together in one tent (without the RV as backup) followed by an attempted move to Mexico that did not pan out.
I then found a little detour down the rabbit hole – in Part 2.5 I looked at Father Bus's twitter account and how his views also shaped the family lifestyle.
Instagram > Parenting
Through out 2022 we see the family start several social media adventures that have now since been abandoned - including blogs, a website, a health specific Instagram, and a separate Facebook. The only active account that still stands today is their Instagram, and it is in 2022 where we start seeing daily posts.
In April, Mother Bus had her seventh child, Aquila, at an AirBnB in their home town of Lubbock, TX. Baby Aquila is the sixth son to Britney and JD, joining siblings Gunner (11), Kinsey (9), Schofield (7), Audie (5), Swift (4), and Uriah (2). He is also the second AirBnB baby for the family.
Britney was not reckless with this birth by ensuring the help of a midwife, “Every delivery is different, and each time I have to stay focused on the Lord’s plan. He knows when and how this will all happen, all I can do is choose to trust him. I’m thankful for a body able to deliver a baby, a healthy and low risk pregnancy, and a husband who is more than supportive as he takes on the role of doula and deliverer. We started this together 10 months ago, and it’s almost time to finish it. My midwife is ready for my call, and we have everything set at the Airbnb. I can’t wait for another Bradley Method Delivery!”
FatherBus obsessed with having sons
The baby’s neck is shown many times to be unsupported, which is sadly a common theme for these parents. Mother Bus is more consumed with the herself & the camera than her newborn:
I pray for all her children's necks
Four days after giving birth the family is at the Texas Home School Coalition convention to host a talk on their homeschooling approach. Because who cares about the woman’s body needing time to heal? There is content to be made!
There are many posts discussing how their homeschooling, or “roadschooling”, system is superior to all others since. MotherBus even mentions in September 2022 “I’m putting together a homeschool… ROADSCHOOL guide for families right now!” yet we never see anything from her regarding this again.
The problem I have with this schooling method is up until this point the family has rarely seen much of the United States - maybe having visited ten or less states. And it isn’t like the family is moving to different parts of the country long enough to really experience the culture - if anything, when they start traveling more as 2022 rolls through the Summer and Fall they stay long enough to experience a few historical places (usually ones with free entry) and stay at RV parks. American history is so diverse I doubt these two are capable of teaching these children a tenth of what they should be learning. Most of their children aren’t even old enough to fully absorb and understand why a place may be historically important.
Their traveling school idea only really serves one, maybe two, subjects a student should be learning in school. What about the sciences or arts? We never see the family go to an art museum or do any sort of science. Travelling would allow the children to learn about all different plant species or animals that may only be native to one part of the county, but that’s never a point for Mother Bus.
Since I was not homeschooled myself I cannot comment on the schedule the children follow but I really doubt schooling for maybe 2 hours a day for 3-4 days/week is the best practice:
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Did a child write this in hopes of getting out of class?
As I mentioned the family does travel more in the Fall - visiting New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey but once the weather starts getting cold the family once again heads back to Texas.
Mother Bus’s posts get pretty thirsty as the year goes on, making some pretty cringe posts. There are a few times she tries for giveaways, reminding me of JillPMs $10 gift certificates:
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As anyone who has seen their Instagram, her favorite topic of all is her ability to produce children. I'd say about 85% of her videos are her eye-fucking the camera, saying something about motherhood, and then having her kids show their faces. It gives off the same vibe of when a kid comes up to you to show off their new toys. This is problematic for so many reasons mainly the exploitation of her children, but I also I doubt the kids enjoy this forced dancing even though it's probably one of the few moments in the day Mother Bus pays them any attention.
She also has quite a fixation on gender roles, especially for the boys:
Masculinity is dying
Boys in jeopardy
What about your daughter? Is she not capable of learning about this wire? She is twice the age as some of her brothers
As 2023 begins the family stays in Texas, traveling to Kentucky and eventually Florida. The family seems to be following Father Bus around as he is working on his new invention, “JD has started a new business, and it doesn’t matter how many times we go down this road together it’s a struggle. Being married to an entrepreneur means high highs, and low lows, especially in the beginning stages of something. Will the new endeavor be a success or will we have lost everything we invest? I never know.”
To help JD travel for work they buy a motorcycle, because why get your children more than three Christmas presents when you can spend your money on a toy for yourself? (If she makes her money off of her Instagram, which is all about her kids, don’t the kids deserve some of that money?) Anyways, this motorcycle leads to an event in April 2023 where we see how truly obsessed Mother Bus is with her husband.
When JD heads to Kentucky for a work trip and leaves Mother Bus alone in Florida for too long with seven children she decides to drive 11 hours in a bus she never really drove before. The biggest issue has to be the lack of safety for any of her children who are all traveling in this death trap with her - she even has one of them filming her driving so we can have this glorious content.
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And that’s the last we see of the motorcycle.
Sadly in June there’s another documented incident of poor parenting. The family was contacted by multiple followers to tell them one of their children, Swift (4), was making odd faces in one of their forced family videos. “I immediately had multiple optometrists message me including one from Brazil, and telling me to get him checked out. And they were right, this guy needs glasses!” What does it tell you about a parent that cannot detect a difference in their child but the people watching videos of them on Instagram can?
Through the Summer of 2023 we see the family traveling more, they visit the states surrounding the Great Lakes, and then down to Virginia, Maryland, and D.C.. JD announces his “invention” SatSaver which is basically a fancy notepad to write down your Bitcoin passwords in. It costs $24.95 + shipping.
In September no one is surprised when Mother Bus announces she is pregnant again. A month later there is another announcement, which is a little surprising - the family is headed to Brazil.
Brazil or Bus(t)
On October 12 the family announced their “move” to Brazil, “We are parking the bus, and flying. The next few months abroad we will be traveling between Airbnbs and monthly rentals. That will change our travel style a bit, and our daily life a tad. As American tourists we are continuing to homeschool in the morning but plan to add a language tutor to the mix. We are looking forward to exploring an area longer, and sharing the local Brazilian culture with you” (I put “move” in quotes here because that’s the term MotherBus uses even though it's basically an extended vacation.)
JD & Britney show off their great planning skills when they drive over 10 hours to New Orleans in order to get their passports in time. She acts like this is totally normal, “Did you know you can get a passport the same day if you apply in person? We have done it now 4 times for different trips, the New Orleans office is our favorite location!”
The family plans on becoming fluent in Portuguese, “We absolutely plan to immerse ourselves in Portuguese, and hope to become fluent. The value of adding a foreign language to our children’s skill set can nothing but benefit their future.” We have a wonderful screenshot posted in this subreddit of her using ‘Hola’ instead of ‘Ola’ in one of her first Brazil posts, she’s since corrected it but she really showed up how serious she is taking this.
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November 25th, when the family finally sets off for Brazil it's not the easiest – they miss their connecting flight, lose one of their kid’s bags and a Nintendo Switch. Then upon arriving at their AirBnB MotherBus immediately has issues with where they are staying. The staircase has wide gaps between them so her children are obviously going to hurt themselves. And it's not like this was a thing she could have easily seen in pictures of their AirBnB rental. As a result of this and although they mention “monthly rentals” planned the family pops around from one AirBnB to another their whole stay. She’s reckless with location sharing the whole time too - such a great thing for when MotherBus and FatherBus ditch the kids for their date nights.
Where are your children?1?!
Not even two weeks in and the family has to buy a van since their rental car is too small, “We moved AirBnb’s today but our rental car is so small it barely fits us let alone our luggage. Looks like buying a new car is a big priority for this Brazil adventure.” At this time Bitcoin was growing rapidly at around $45,000 compared to the majority of 2023 when Bitcoin was between $25,000-$30,000. This could have influenced their decision but we also know they are terrible planners, so there are probably a few factors at play.
The family travels around southern Brazil, celebrating Christmas in Florianópolis. The children receive their usual three gifts, MotherBus mentions they will all get a water bottle this year - oh joy! On New Years day 2024 we are reminded again why these people are not cut out for traveling, especially not internationally. The family planned to drive through Argentina and Paraguay to take a shorter route to their next AirBnB however they did not look into driving their large cavan/bus across country lines. MotherBus has a complete meltdown, thankfully documented and posted by a fellow snarker (Link). After this post several people apparently reached out to her and told her she could have simply offered the border patrol a bribe to get through to Argentina. She’s upset she didn’t know this to begin with, but thankfully the family plans to stay within Brazil for their journey.
In January 2024 we hear Father Bus is planning on ditching the family flying back to Texas for one week of work. With how she reacted to his absence back in the states where she drove the bus 500+ miles to see him, it wasn’t very long until one of them caved and agreed the family will all be returning home with Father Bus in January. Don't worry though because the family is planning on returning, “Quickly answering a few things… the kids will all continue their Portuguese lessons (and so will JD and I), we do plan to return after baby is born (date unknown), our northern road trip includes visiting São Paulo, Rio, Brasília, and the beaches of norther Brazil…. A few of the kids are asking to see the Amazon, but I’m not so sure about that.”
Reckless Parenting and Baby #8
The family is expecting baby number 8 in April 2024, the oldest is now a teenager and the second oldest (only girl) is a pre-teen. This is quite a concern for most people because of how the family packs the children in the back of the bus like a can of sardines. As the kids get older they really deserve personal space, and the parents' weird views on sleeping schedules and date nights ensure these kids are trapped in the back of the bus by the time the sun is down. (Once the newest baby comes along there are seven kids, ages 13-2, sharing 6 small beds.)
Sleep schedules
Date nights
The birth plan that Mother Bus shared initially was for another AirBnB birth, but without any midwife or doula, JD was to be in charge of everything. “We have everything set at the Airbnb, and plan to head over when this thing takes off. I can’t wait for another Bradley Method Delivery!”
As her due date pasts, she shares some wonderful wisdom on the female body:
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On April 20, Mother Bus posts the story of the arrival their new baby, “Tuesday, after midnight, I woke up, grabbed my phone and went to scroll when I felt it. The first contraction and within minutes I knew it was the real deal. 31 minutes later JD and I delivered our 7th son in our home. A bus birth. Welcoming Boone Lott to the world at 12:49am April 16, 2024. He is doing so well, and weighed 10lbs 5oz! We actually weighed him on the bread scale AND the regular scale to make sure he weighed that much.”
Having a baby without any medical assistance is reckless. Having a baby in your bathtub in an RV while your seven children sleep in a closet is beyond reckless. There are many people in the surrounding area, within earshot no less. There is no way for them to get rid of the medical waste in a proper manner. Since the AirBnB was never seen and MotherBus's record of lying, it has to make you wonder if a Bus Birth was always the plan.
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She is super neglectful of this child, bringing him to the beach within a week of being alive. People can clearly spot he is sun burnt. She also leaves him on a sheep skin rug (her current product she's trying to to shill). This is not only dangerous in a bus with 9 other people running around but also the germs!
After much online speculation regarding the baby’s health Mother Bus posted on May 9, “*And for those of you interested, Boone was checked at the hospital and was given a clean bill of health.”
Thank you!
Thank you all for reading any of these deep dives, I really appreciate it and the discussions you’ve had. I have always loved reading different deep dives here on reddit so I figured why not take a swing at it. I totally underestimated how much content there was to go through, and I hope I did my best 🙂
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A couple weeks ago, I successfully completed the Norwegian Foot March for the third time. This is an event that requires participants to march 18.6 miles with a 25 lb rucksack within a certain time limit (no weapon or FLC/TAP required anymore). If you're in the miliary, this is a great opportunity to get a foreign service award.
The first time I tried the NFM, I had no idea what to expect and barely managed to pass on time. Since then, I have built up a good pre-ruck training plan and come up with a pace plan that allows for me to finish the NFM with plenty of time to spare without tiring me out too much. I have also adjusted my gear to be as pain-free as possible. Here is what I can recommend doing to prepare for the Norwegian Foot March and other long distance rucks:
Training:
You should obviously be working cardio, but it's good to also put some time in the gym. For cardio, I generally run two to three times a week. I either run five to ten miles at a time at a slow pace (~9 minutes per mile) or do a brisk two mile (~6:45 per mile). I also try to ruck once a week or once every two weeks. I go six to eight miles at a time with 35 lbs + LBE + water at a ~10 minute per mile pace. However, ruck-running is not good for you so I would avoid going this fast if you're not used to it. Instead of running fast or overstriding, 'airborne shuffle' and you should be able to sustain a pretty good pace.
In the gym, I do a lot of trap bar deadlifts (which I have to do anyways for the ACFT), trap bar shrugs, squats, etc. The focus is on building general strength in the legs while also getting your shoulders used to heavy weight. Make sure you're also doing mobility exercises and stretches to allow for your body to recover. Focus on the knees, ankles, hamstrings, and calves.
I stopped leg day workouts and runs 7 days prior to the ruck. I kept working upper body until 3 days prior to the ruck (which is also when I started carb loading and hydrating in earnest). I continued stretches and mobility exercises up until the ruck started.
Pace:
The first time I did the NFM, I ran for as long as I could then walked the rest. I think I ended up running about 10 miles before I cramped horribly. I barely ended up finishing on time and felt like shit at the end. This year, I airborne shuffled the first 4 miles at an 11 minute pace. Then, I walked for about a minute and used that time to have some wateelectrolytes, a Gu packet, and some snacks. I then jogged another 4 miles before repeating my hydration/fuel/rest period. At this point, I was feeling a lot better than I had in previous years. I hadn't cramped at all and didn't feel tired. I was also far ahead of the required pace so I took a break from running and briskly walked another 1.8 miles to the turnaround point. On the second half, I did what I call the 15/30: I would run 15 seconds at a time and then walk 30 seconds at a time before repeating the cycle. When I got bored, I would run slightly longer, such as between telephone poles. I ended up finishing this year's NFM in 4 hours and 23 minutes which is a 13:57 per mile pace. I felt great at the finish line which was a welcome surprise given how terrible I felt my first year doing this.
Equipment (what you all probably want to hear about the most):
Ruck: My first year doing the NFM, I used the Molle II large rucksack that I was issued. It didn't feel that bad, but I definitely could have packed it a little better. My second year, I used an old medium alice pack that I found on facebook marketplace. I also packed it a lot better (dense weight, close to the frame and as high as possible). The metal frame of the alice felt better than the plastic Molle frame, but it rubbed a lot on my back and felt uncomfortable after about two hours of rucking. This year, I splurged and got myself a lovely Tactical Tailor MALICE V2. I also slapped on a frame pad (I got mine here: https://www.etsy.com/listing/810042233/alice-pack-frame-pad-handmade-padded?ref=yr\_purchases). It's been a fantastic rucksack for both rucking and field problems. The frame pad I got is simply superb, if you have a MALICE or an Alice, consider getting one. I chose to use the MALICE over the MOLLE 4000 that I was issued. The MOLLE 4000 looks pretty cool, but the shoulder straps are crazy narrow for anyone that's not a 4'7" skinny female. The rest of it is fine (I actually really like the waist strap) but the MALICE is better.
Boots/socks: I use Garmont NFS boots in garrison and for rucking. They're great and are very popular, I don't feel like I need to say much about them. I would just recommend swapping out the insoles for something from Dr. Scholls. For socks, I wore Darn Tough T4033. They are full cushioned tactical boot socks and are worth every penny. Some people also use sock liners but I don't get blisters so I don't feel the need to. If you are going to use sock liners, maybe get a boot that's half a size bigger than normal, the added layer will make your normal boots tighter.
Clothing: A lot of NFM participants come wearing Crye shirts/field tops, combat pants, Patagonia stuff, etc. This year, I wore an issued combat shirt and hot weather OCP pants. I had no complaints with this setup. In past years I have worn a hot weather top and that has worked too, but I like the combat shirt more.
Fuel/Hydration:
For hydration, I carried a 1L nalgene of water mixed with two packets of drip drop. I got pretty close to running out of water at mile 13, so I refilled at one of the water stations along the route. If there weren't any water stations I would have brought two nalgenes, but I didn't feel the need to this time since that would just be unnecessary weight. For fuel, I had four packets of Gu that I planned to take every 4 miles and some protein bars. After finishing the ruck, I had a small packet of Oreos that I was saving as a treat.
Conclusion:
This turned out to be a longer post than I expected, but I would have wanted to know all this before trying the Norwegian Foot March for the first time two years ago. Just remember, you can do a lot more than you think you can, the hardest part is volunteering and taking the first step.
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