Timestamp: https://imgur.com/a/5BFeirE
AR -15 upperM4 Aero upper receiver face trued, BA 16” modern series gov’t profile midlength gas 1/7 CrMoV NATO 5.56 melonite single dimpled by pro gunsmith. Aero no logo .750 gas block melonite, Aero melonite gastube. BCM MCMR 13 handguard BCM mlok QD sling attachment,unknown Flash hider, 400 rounds through barrel upper in great condition. Simple upper set-up. No FTF nor FTE running 55gr with an H2 buffer. -$375
LMT Enhanced bolt carrier semi-auto light use Catch and release. Only selling because seller didn’t disclose/describe/ show that carrier was factory semi-auto, other than that it is great light use condition all other enhanced lmt features present. -$140
Used Colt pre 2021 semi-auto non reversible schmid S marked selector. Selector is notched but not V notch. Includes used Colt selector detent and spring -$20 $16
Used excellent condition Magpul SL grip with hardware,Magpul MOE polymer enhanced trigger guard -$20
Used exc cond Magpul MOE 7” drop in carbine mlok handguard add it in for $10 on top of any purchase
Used BCM GFH mod 3x3 large latch -$60 Light use Arms Unlimited ambi mag releases under 400 rounds of mag changes. No issues these-are just extras for AR set-ups that I already sold.Selling 2 for -$30 Used surplus Colt delta ring assembly: delta ring (one ding but handguard will cover up ding)weld spring, snap ring, plus New DPMS handguard cap -$30 Used exc cond Magpul MOE SL stock milspec. Purchased on a Colt set-up and removed -not my preferred choice. -$50
Cross posted- Accept discreet Venmo/PPFF/Cashapp no notes - claim, PM with preferred payment method and shipping info for faster communication.
Just an FYI-I provide tracking# when package is dropped off at mail carrier facility; not instant tracking#, but then dropped off 3 days later.
Note for buyer safety! I will not reach out first. Buyer should initiate contact

Been a while, hope everyone is well! Clearing out a lot of stuff to make some room for car parts and RS pews. As always, all sales final and first to PM takes priority! No sale is final until you pay or schedule a meetup. Shooting tests available or test it out when picking up. Can somewhat meetup around the GTA. Shipping available.
Do note that I have a lot more than what is listed below so feel free to ask about anything you’d like! More pics/prices coming. Give me a list of what you’d like and I’ll name a price! If you’re buying $250+ free shipping and I can throw in some freebies of your choice! Mags/small accessories/gear etc.
UPDATED ADDITIONS: https://imgur.com/a/381xYKu Last updated: 12/05/2024 - PTS EPS Stock spray painted green $40 - Repro Magpul MOE stock $20 - KWA K120 midcap mag $15 - Cytac hi-capa holster $25 - foliage green fast helmet (w/ ear cover mounts on rails) $45 - Valken mesh face mask $10 - Valken goggles $15 - Various slings (ms4/QD/etc) $10 - Tan dump pouch $15 - triple m4 mag pouch $15 - Garmin ForeTrex tactical wrist pouch (yes it comes with the fake ForeTrex lol) $20 - unknown M4 upper receiver (anodized finish) $40 - BCM mlok rail covers FDE $20 (these are super comfy!)
Tokyo Marui Glock 19 G19 $220 https://imgur.com/a/1VKMLOe - Stippled lower, comes with 1 G19 mag
Beta Project AK $600 https://imgur.com/a/zjWfucw - Fully built, BTC Chimera and other aftermarket internals. Will update with a picture of parts list (or PM). Shooting video can be provided - Comes with 6 PTS Magpul AK mags (1 is a parts mag; 2 mags have upgraded followers)
Magpul PTS KWA FPG $1000 Pics: https://imgur.com/a/MjSnf9F - Have 2 of these so getting rid of 1. Comes with 3 mags (beta project holster available)
ICS M4 CQB $200 Pics: STBY - want it gone quick, has the split gearbox design
Krytac SPR Black $350 https://imgur.com/a/BaEBOjH - has wear as it was my loaner gun for when I brought someone to games
Externals https://imgur.com/a/KjumHBq I have a few more stocks and grips and handguards etc etc that aren’t listed yet so ask! - Various buffer tubes $10-20 - Plastic/polymer front handguards $15 - G&G RIS with nut and rail covers $25 - Couple fixed stocks $25 - Couple M16 stocks $15 - Noveske M4 charging handle - G style M4 charging handle - Motor grips - Vertical grips - Suppressors/Muzzle devices - Optics

• MFT Stock $30
• Repro Magpul MOE stock black $20
• FDE Crane stock SOLD
• Bipod $20
• Prowin hopup unit SOLD
• Midwest Industries MP5 Rail/handguard $60
• https://imgur.com/a/GfScaNu
• Red dot scope w/ lens covers -SOLD
• Flip to side magnifier -$30
• L3 Eotech Magnifier -$50
• PEQ - SOLD
• Anodized Blue V3 gearbox shell -$50

Various M4 Receivers https://imgur.com/a/UVPLD4g - VFC Avalon Monster lower receiver - G&G metal upper+lower receiver set (new) - G&G metal lower receiver - G&G metal upper receiver - ? metal lower receiver (battleworn/scuffed up) one inside edge machined for clearance on the left side of the gearbox - G&G GR25 receiver set (SR25) with a mag
Mags https://imgur.com/a/xY23SfG Let me know if you’re buying multiple and I’ll cut you a deal! - 3x maple airsoft variable cap 30/130 pmags (FDE) $15 or $35 for the set - 1x maple airsoft variable cap 30/130 $15 - 4x Magpul PTS pmag mid caps (black) $15 each - 1x Magpul PTS pmag mid cap (FDE) $15 - Random stanag hi cap mags $10 - Random stanag mid cap mags $10 - Ace1Arms feather weight extended glock mag (WE/TM/etc) $50 - WE glock mag $25 - Blackhawk Glock holster $50 - Magpul Mag pulls - ACM mag pulls - Plastic bayonets
Externals https://imgur.com/a/KjumHBq I have a few more stocks and grips and handguards etc etc that aren’t listed yet so ask! - Various buffer tubes $10-20 - Plastic/polymer front handguards $15 - G&G RIS with nut and rail covers $25 - Couple fixed stocks $25 - Couple M16 stocks $15 - Noveske M4 charging handle $25 - G style M4 charging handle $20
LOTSSSS of internal AEG parts https://imgur.com/a/h6Wjpsn I’ve got internal parts both aftermarket and stock from manyyy different brands so just let me know what you’re looking for! There’s wayyyy too much to list lol. Pics are only a sample of what’s available. - Sector delayers, gearsets, tappet plates, cylinders, pistons, piston head, cylinder head, nozzle, springs, etc (many specs) - Cylinder bore up kits for Aug/AK/M4 - TM/ICS MP5 selector - AEG oil/grease set - Motors (high torque/high speed/etc) - TM NGRS stock parts and some aftermarket bits
Gearboxes (complete and shells) https://imgur.com/a/4BfA47n Most were removed from stock guns but some are aftermarket shells. $25 for any empty shell unless otherwise specified. - King arms gearbox V2 - Lonex V2 gearbox shell $50 (can be sold complete with a leviathan, PM if that interests you) - G&P gearbox V2 - G&P i5 complete gearbox V2 $40 - G&P complete gearbox V2 $60 - E&C QD V2 gearbox shell SOLD - G&G Armament gearboxes V2 - Various AK gearboxes - CNC blue anodized V3 gearbox $50
MOSFETs ETUs https://imgur.com/a/5876CmK The ACR BTC is not for sale. Rest are available as listed below. Free stickers with purchase of Perun! - BTC Spectre MkII (I believe it’s the Bluetooth version, BNIB) - NGRS M4 Titan (only one is available) -SOLD - Gate Warfet SOLD - Gate NanoASR $35 - Perun ETU++ $75 - Perun Hybrid V3 $100 - Used jefftron Leviathan V2 (works! I have an extra microswitch for the selector sensor too) $100
The ETU++ are made to replace the crappy g&g mosfets in the SRL/SRXL/ARP9/ARP556/RK47/RK74/etc etc… They are drop in units and very easy to install! But installation is available if you need!
Batteries https://imgur.com/a/fberRBQ I have more than just these! Ask if you need a specific size or type. - Turnigy 7.4v 1300mAh 25-50c LiPos, 2 stick and 3 butterfly $15 each - WE tech 2600mAh 7.4v $20
HPA tank and accessories https://imgur.com/a/YSRQQMt Tank and this listed regulator will not work with each other. The regulator that was with the tank has been sold (it was a redline SFR incase you want to grab one). Tank will require hydro as I haven’t ran any HPA guns in a bit. - Ninja Carbon Fiber HPA Tank 68;4500 $200 - Valken HPA braided line and SLP Regulator $50 - Extra Valken braided line (free with above items or $15)
Bunch of gear https://imgur.com/a/IFE2w9R Let me know what stuff you want from here or take it all for $100 - Condor triple M4 mag pouch - G-Code M4 mag pouch x3 - G-Code pistol mag pouch x3 - Tan belt with pistol lanyard - Phantom industries single mag pouch - Phantom industries double mag pouch - Phantom industries double pistol mag pouch - Phantom industries battle belt - Phantom industries flat pack - Phantom industries sling - Emerson gear pouches - Magpul Dynamics Sling - woodland camo tac rig - green belt - green sling

Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.
This is a daily watchlist for trading.
I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.
I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.
Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on _____? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question.
News: Novavax Soars on $1.2 Billion Sanofi Vaccine Licensing Deal
News worth mentioning: We might have a geomagnetic storm that will affect electronics such as GPS, mobile phone networks, power grids, etc.
Fed also commented that inflation data has been disappointing and that it is too early to think about cutting rates- we might have 0 rate cuts this year.
US will impose tariffs on China EVs likely early next week. Worth watching NIO,BYD, TSLA, etc.
SG- Reports -.23 vs -.21 expected EPS, revenue is 157.9M vs 152M exp. Overall met expectations. However, they raised their guidance.
AMD- Possibly affected due to news about the rate cut- trading the most cleanly of all the semis for this news. (possibly also from the geomagnetic storm? Unlikely though)
NVAX- Watching this for places to both go long and short above $11. News above.

GME- We saw massive momentum Friday at the close, then again Monday in the morning. It hasn’t retraced the move for the last 5 days. Yesterday I thought it was worth keeping an eye on past $17, today I’m looking for places to play a short.
Longer-term watches: NVDA/SMCI, BA, ULTA, TSLA

Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.
This is a daily watchlist for trading.
I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.
I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.
Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on _____? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question.
News: US Jobless Claims Jump in Week When New York Schools Had a Break
Earnings Today After Hours: GRPN
RBLX- Reports -.43 vs -.53e, revenue of 801M vs 931M expected, reports lowest growth rate for company since going public, key metric since this stock was valued primarily for its growth.
HOOD- Beats earnings with 0.18 vs 0.05 expected, revenue of 618M vs 534M expected. Keeps FY 24 guidance. Note that they are still under SEC investigation for crypto listings.
GME- We saw massive momentum Friday at the close, then again Monday in the morning. It hasn’t retraced the move for the last 4 days, so still worth keeping an eye on. $17 level worth watching.
NVDA- Interesting sell off this morning, worth watching to see if we break lows and sell off rest of day.
ARM- Reports earnings of 0.36 vs 0.30 expected, revenue of 928M vs 885M expected. FY25 was guided to be below estimates.
Longer-term watches: NVDA/SMCI, BA, ULTA, TSLA

Analysis:

• Will keep it brief here.
• We continue to see choppiness under SPX 5200 and in and around QQQ 440.
• This is because prior to OPEX for May, it looks like there’s not much OTM Call delta to push us meaningfully higher. As such, market makers are keeping us hedged and pinned around these key levels. That includes 39k on Dow.
• Overall sentiment is bullish. Look at these positioning charts for SPX and NDX and you can see how much call delta there is.
• https://imgur.com/a/ZgiBjyf
• VIX is being suppressed and traders are short on volatility which is supporting the market higher.
• HY Default Swaps are tight and signal that traders are not particularly worried.
• There are, as of right now, not too many headwinds right now that traders are seeing.
• As such, until opex expect choppiness near these levels. With traders selling vol, if there is any intraday dips it likely won’t last long.
• Goldman Sachs Volatility panic index also tanking, reversing almost all the gains from the recent bump with geopolitical unrest.

DATA LEDE

• BOJ summary of Opinions
• Suggest adjusting degree of easing if price trend rises
• Expects easy financial conditions to continue - dovish
• Rate path may still be higher than market expectations - hawkish
• One member suggested reducing bond purchases.
• Warned of potential inflationary impact from weaker yen
• Japan Leading Index comes in at 111.4, in line with estimates of 111.2
• China exports come +1.5% YOY, vs expectations for 1%. So better than expected demand environment in the world
• Imports were up 8.4% YOY vs 5.4% expected. So better than expected domestic demand environment
• GOOD DATA FOR CHINA

UK BOE RATES DECISION - DOVISH HERE FROM BOE

• Keeps rates stable
• 2 officials, Dhingra and Ramadan voted for a cut by 25bps
• NOW 2 officials voting for Cut. Previously it was just 1
• Looks like they will be ready to cut this summer too.
• Bailey says he is optimistic that things are moving in the right direction
• Sees stronger growth than previously
• Fortcasts unemployment rate lower than previously
• Reiterates that MPC will ensure bank rate is restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation o 2% target
• Policy stance could remain restrictive even if bank rate were cut -
• BOE - increased divergence of demand between US and europe could lead to monetary policy divergence - hint of cut soon
• Bailey says that rate cuts will depend on how data evolves
• BOE BAILEY SYAS IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL NEED TO CUT RATES MORE THAN CURRENTLY RPICED INTO AMRKETS. V DOVISH

US Jobless Claims
US 30Y Treasury auction
Fed Daly Speech
MARKETS:

• SPX trading flat at 5180.
• Nasdaq trading absolutely flat above 18k. At 18,050. 50 day MA is support now, and is at 17,950
• GEr40: Trading at 18,578 - trading slightly higher today again. Still above the 18,500 level. No fear
• Uk100 - pointing towards 8400 now. New highs. Up 0.6% today after of BOE decision. After BOE it jumped from 8360 to 8390
• HKG50 - strong Chinese export and import data so Hong Kong MARKET is higher by 1.8%, trading at 18600.
• China50 is at 12,734, trading up by 0.5%.
• OIL slightly higher - up to 79.37 Yesterday touched lows of below 77. Last candlestick was a bullish engulfing, quite a strong candlestick. Positioning data points to short term bounce.
• GOLD - Continues to trade flat, consolidating above 2312.

FX:

• USD higher this morning
• GBP lower on dovishness from BOE
• Yen continues to weaken after failed intervention

EARNINGS:
ARM

• Full year Revenue guidance missed, but not terrible.
• EPS was 0.36 vs estimates of 0.3 (beat by 20%)
• Revenue of 928M was up 47% YOY, beat by 4.8%
• Guidance for Q1 (next quarter):
• EPS of 0.32-0.36, beat estimates by 10% at midpoint
• Revenue of 875-925, beat estimates by 2% at midpoint
• Guidance for Full year:
• Revenue of 3.8-4.1B, missed the mark by 2%
• EPS of 1.45-1.65, beat by 2%
• Said their designs power nearly every smartphone and they are now expanding into data centres and other markets. V bullish
• Chips with ARM technology generate 200B annually for chipmakers
• Facing competition from Qualcomm
• Increasingly Integral for AI revolution, although they haven’t yet benefited as much as peers like NVDA. Continue to innovate in this space
• Earnigns were actually pretty good, sell off bit harsh.

ABNB

• Down because of Q2 revenue forecast which missed expectations, but did say they expect to see acceleration in Summer due to olympics and summer travel. Still maintained they are seeing strong summer demand.
• CURRENT QUARTER
• Rev $2.14B vs $2.07B est
• EBITDA $424M vs $327M est
• EPS $0.41 vs. $0.30 est
• Gross Booking value came $22.9B vs $22.41B expected
• 9.5% increase YOY in nights and experienced booked, reaching 133M
• Growth was driven by 21% increase in bookings in Asia Pacific and 19% surge in latin America
• North amerce sees slight deceleration
• Average Daily Rates was $173, up 3% YOY.
• GUIDANCE
• Sees 2Q Rev $2.68-2.74B vs $2.74B est
• So Q2 revenue forecast fell short of expectations.
• Headwinds included the timing of easter, a leap day in Q1 and foreign exchange impacts
• Still expects revenue acceleration in Q3, buoyed by strong summer backlog and upcoming events like the olympics
• Cited still strong travel demand globally

TTD

• EPS of 0.26 vs estimate of 0.22 ( beat by 18%)
• Revenue of 491.3M was up 28% YOY, beat by 2.2%
• More performance metrics:
• EBITDA margin was 33%
• Net income was $32M
• GAAP EPS of $0.06
• Q2:
• Revenue is expected to eb at least 575M, beating estimates by 1% at the lower end
• EBITDA expected to be 223M
• Said they saw storng customer retention, over 95% across last 10 years
• CTV inventory - largest marketplace with updates including extended partnerships with Disney, NBCUNiversal and Roku
• OpenPath and OpenPass innovations - enhances direct connections and authentication on open interest
• Repurchased 125M in Q1 and 575M remaining to be repurchased
• Said that advancement in Unified ID 2.0, and Kokai platform means they are sell positioned for market share growth

SEDG:

• EPS of -1.9 vs estimate of -1.57.
• So a considerably wider loss than consensus
• Revenue of 204.4M vs 194.82M - beat by 5%
• Revenue was down 80% YOY
• Said they expect next quarter revenue to be 250-280m. Consensus was for 304M, so miss by 13%
• Other metrics:
• Gaap Gross margin as -12.8%
• Said their results aligned with their low expectations
• They were expecting inventory clearing adn typical seasonality
• Entering spring, which is when installations typically rise As such, they expect inventory to continue to decline and revenues to improve
• THEIR MAIN PRO RIGHT NOW THEN IS SEAONLITY
• Also focused on a suite of new products that they plan to release in next several quarters

PLNT - down after cutting their full year guidance.

• Lowered full year outlook due to people worried about covid infection and an advertising campaign that flopped.
• EPS of 0.53 vs estimate of 0.49 (beat by 8%)
• Revenue of 248M vs estimate of 249.85M (Miss by 0.8%)
• Ended quarter with 19.6M members
• Same store sales growth of 6.2%
• Mainly, this was driven by new member growth
• Several headwinds in the last quarter:
• Shift in consumer focus in new year to savings and concern in increase in COVID infections
• National advertising campaign they launched didn’t resonate particularly well
• As a result, forced to lower full year outlook.
• Now expects revenue growth of 4-6% from 6-7% before
• Expects EBITDA to increase 7-9% vs 10-11% previously
• Expects Net income to increase 6-8% vs 9-10% previously
• CEO Colleen Keating will be joining in JUNe

YETI

• EPS of 0.34 beat by 41%
• Revenue of 341.4M beat by 2.4%
• Raised annual guidance:
• FY EPS to 2.49-2.62, vs estimate of 2.49
• Revenue to 1.79-1.83B, vs estimate 1.81B
• STORNG BEAT AND RAISE QUARTER
• Direct to consumer sales were up 12% YOY
• Wholesale sales were up 13% YOY
• International sales were up 32% YOY
• US sales were up 9% YOY
• Coolers sales were up 15% YOY
• Sales in drink ware were up 13% YOY
• Said clearly that confidence remains high for the remainder of the year, especially in cooler and equipment segment.

MAG 7:

• TSLA - job cuts are escalating in China, affecting departments such as service staff, engineers, production line workers and logistics team.
• TSLA was down yesterday on US prosecutors investigating whether Tesla misled investors and consumers about its EV self driving capabilities.
• AAPL - Design team faces another top talent departure as Duncan Kerr plans to leave the company soon.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks higher in premarket on strong HKG50 performance.
• Yeti pops one awnings - review above
• SHOP up on price correction nd a number of positive analyst upgrades
• MARA and RIOT down on BTC being down
• COST - April Sales highlights. Sales were up 7.1% YOY. US comp sales were up 5.8% YOY
• Canda comp sales up 5% YOY Ecommerce comp sales up 15% YOY
• So strong sales data for Costco
• PARA, SONY - Sony and Apollo group are reportedly planning to sell off Paramount’s CBS network and cable channels including Nikelodeon and MTV as part of their $26B bid for the company
• SHOP - Cathie Wood bought over 428k shares of shopify yesterday, on its worst day since IPO
• SHOP - JMP has upgraded shopify to market outperform from perform with PT of 80.
• DIS - Starting this summer Disney and WBD will offer a bundle including Disney+, Hulu and Max. Both ad supported and ad free versions will be available.
• DIS - Barclays calls Disney sell off as overdone and sees it as a buying opportunity.
• WBD - also plans fresh cost cuts and a hike in max price.
• HOOD - up on earnings - said that they added 140k new gold members in April alone, which is half the new gold members we got in all of Q1 2024. Thats strong
• GM - will end production of its gasoline powered Chevrolet Malibu Car later this year in order to produce new electric vehicles.
• LYB - intiated a formal review of its European assets, focusing on olefins and polyolefin’s, intermediates and derivatives unit.
• TRIp - yesterday was lower after tempering hopes of a takeover, stating there’s no deal with 3rd party that is in the best interest of the company.
• INTC was down yesterday as they lowered their Q2 guidance for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks Forecasts Q2 revenue to fall below midpoint of 12.5-13.5. Still reitaretad full year
• NIO - will launch its lower priced brand, Onvo on May 15th. First onto model, L60 will be a family centric smart BEV, much cheaper than Model Y from Tesla.
• Huawei advances tech self sufficiency with more Chinese parts in new phone - pure 70 pro features increased chinese made components, including flash memory chip
• BA - Cargo plane lands without front nose gear in Istanbul, investigation launched
• BABA - rolls out largest version of its large language model to meet AI demand.
• ZS is down as they confirm an ongoing investigation into possible data breach
• HUBS - gains amid report that talks with GOOGL are progressing
• APP - pops on earnigns beat which is driven by an improving app ad market, they said.
• BERY - earnings, reported mixed Q1 results, but reaffirmed their FY 2024 outlook
• ALGM earnings
• INFY and Formula E strike new partnership

OTHER NEWS:

• AFFirm eanrings yesterday showed that delinquencies on buy now pay later has doubled.
• UK’s Chancellor Hunt says that the UK has likely escaped recession.
• Fed Collins comments yesterday:
• There are risk to cutting too soon
• Recent inflation setbacks not a surprise
• Monetary policy is restrictive
• Demand will likely ned to slow to get us to 2%, timing of this is uncertain
• Memecoin demand in the crypto space is stronger than ever, says CoinMarket Cap. More and more meme coins being launched
• US saying they will not supply bombs or arms that are going to be used in Rafah
• Israel will reportedly review their Rafah operation after US president comments, threatened that US would stop sending weapons to them if they conduct their Rafah campaign. Israel said they will have to make their army be more economical with their use of weapons and munition.
• US president was unhappy that the bombs supplied by US are being used to kill civilians.
• Musk’s xAI nears close of funding round at $18B valuation, this week
• US Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for Q2 shows growth expected to come at 4.18%, vs previous forecast of 3.31%
• Japan’s currency diplomat, kanda says he is prepared for currency intervention at any time.
• Suzuki says weak yen will have pros and cons. Suzuki aims to mitigate adverse effects of yen depreciation.
• US house votes against ousting Speaker Johnson. Republican Greene had pushed for vote to remove speaker Johnson
• Russia holds victory day military parade as war rumbles on.

FOR MORE OF MY DAILY ANALYSIS, PLEASE JOIN TRADINGEDGE and Swingtrading
Analysis:

• Will keep it brief here.
• We continue to see choppiness under SPX 5200 and in and around QQQ 440.
• This is because prior to OPEX for May, it looks like there’s not much OTM Call delta to push us meaningfully higher. As such, market makers are keeping us hedged and pinned around these key levels. That includes 39k on Dow.
• Overall sentiment is bullish. Look at these positioning charts for SPX and NDX and you can see how much call delta there is.
• https://imgur.com/a/ZgiBjyf
• VIX is being suppressed and traders are short on volatility which is supporting the market higher.
• HY Default Swaps are tight and signal that traders are not particularly worried.
• There are, as of right now, not too many headwinds right now that traders are seeing.
• As such, until opex expect choppiness near these levels. With traders selling vol, if there is any intraday dips it likely won’t last long.
• Goldman Sachs Volatility panic index also tanking, reversing almost all the gains from the recent bump with geopolitical unrest.

DATA LEDE

• BOJ summary of Opinions
• Suggest adjusting degree of easing if price trend rises
• Expects easy financial conditions to continue - dovish
• Rate path may still be higher than market expectations - hawkish
• One member suggested reducing bond purchases.
• Warned of potential inflationary impact from weaker yen
• Japan Leading Index comes in at 111.4, in line with estimates of 111.2
• China exports come +1.5% YOY, vs expectations for 1%. So better than expected demand environment in the world
• Imports were up 8.4% YOY vs 5.4% expected. So better than expected domestic demand environment
• GOOD DATA FOR CHINA

UK BOE RATES DECISION - DOVISH HERE FROM BOE

• Keeps rates stable
• 2 officials, Dhingra and Ramadan voted for a cut by 25bps
• NOW 2 officials voting for Cut. Previously it was just 1
• Looks like they will be ready to cut this summer too.
• Bailey says he is optimistic that things are moving in the right direction
• Sees stronger growth than previously
• Fortcasts unemployment rate lower than previously
• Reiterates that MPC will ensure bank rate is restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation o 2% target
• Policy stance could remain restrictive even if bank rate were cut -
• BOE - increased divergence of demand between US and europe could lead to monetary policy divergence - hint of cut soon
• Bailey says that rate cuts will depend on how data evolves
• BOE BAILEY SYAS IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL NEED TO CUT RATES MORE THAN CURRENTLY RPICED INTO AMRKETS. V DOVISH

US Jobless Claims
US 30Y Treasury auction
Fed Daly Speech
MARKETS:

• SPX trading flat at 5180.
• Nasdaq trading absolutely flat above 18k. At 18,050. 50 day MA is support now, and is at 17,950
• GEr40: Trading at 18,578 - trading slightly higher today again. Still above the 18,500 level. No fear
• Uk100 - pointing towards 8400 now. New highs. Up 0.6% today after of BOE decision. After BOE it jumped from 8360 to 8390
• HKG50 - strong Chinese export and import data so Hong Kong MARKET is higher by 1.8%, trading at 18600.
• China50 is at 12,734, trading up by 0.5%.
• OIL slightly higher - up to 79.37 Yesterday touched lows of below 77. Last candlestick was a bullish engulfing, quite a strong candlestick. Positioning data points to short term bounce.
• GOLD - Continues to trade flat, consolidating above 2312.

FX:

• USD higher this morning
• GBP lower on dovishness from BOE
• Yen continues to weaken after failed intervention

EARNINGS:
ARM

• Full year Revenue guidance missed, but not terrible.
• EPS was 0.36 vs estimates of 0.3 (beat by 20%)
• Revenue of 928M was up 47% YOY, beat by 4.8%
• Guidance for Q1 (next quarter):
• EPS of 0.32-0.36, beat estimates by 10% at midpoint
• Revenue of 875-925, beat estimates by 2% at midpoint
• Guidance for Full year:
• Revenue of 3.8-4.1B, missed the mark by 2%
• EPS of 1.45-1.65, beat by 2%
• Said their designs power nearly every smartphone and they are now expanding into data centres and other markets. V bullish
• Chips with ARM technology generate 200B annually for chipmakers
• Facing competition from Qualcomm
• Increasingly Integral for AI revolution, although they haven’t yet benefited as much as peers like NVDA. Continue to innovate in this space
• Earnigns were actually pretty good, sell off bit harsh.

ABNB

• Down because of Q2 revenue forecast which missed expectations, but did say they expect to see acceleration in Summer due to olympics and summer travel. Still maintained they are seeing strong summer demand.
• CURRENT QUARTER
• Rev $2.14B vs $2.07B est
• EBITDA $424M vs $327M est
• EPS $0.41 vs. $0.30 est
• Gross Booking value came $22.9B vs $22.41B expected
• 9.5% increase YOY in nights and experienced booked, reaching 133M
• Growth was driven by 21% increase in bookings in Asia Pacific and 19% surge in latin America
• North amerce sees slight deceleration
• Average Daily Rates was $173, up 3% YOY.
• GUIDANCE
• Sees 2Q Rev $2.68-2.74B vs $2.74B est
• So Q2 revenue forecast fell short of expectations.
• Headwinds included the timing of easter, a leap day in Q1 and foreign exchange impacts
• Still expects revenue acceleration in Q3, buoyed by strong summer backlog and upcoming events like the olympics
• Cited still strong travel demand globally

TTD

• EPS of 0.26 vs estimate of 0.22 ( beat by 18%)
• Revenue of 491.3M was up 28% YOY, beat by 2.2%
• More performance metrics:
• EBITDA margin was 33%
• Net income was $32M
• GAAP EPS of $0.06
• Q2:
• Revenue is expected to eb at least 575M, beating estimates by 1% at the lower end
• EBITDA expected to be 223M
• Said they saw storng customer retention, over 95% across last 10 years
• CTV inventory - largest marketplace with updates including extended partnerships with Disney, NBCUNiversal and Roku
• OpenPath and OpenPass innovations - enhances direct connections and authentication on open interest
• Repurchased 125M in Q1 and 575M remaining to be repurchased
• Said that advancement in Unified ID 2.0, and Kokai platform means they are sell positioned for market share growth

SEDG:

• EPS of -1.9 vs estimate of -1.57.
• So a considerably wider loss than consensus
• Revenue of 204.4M vs 194.82M - beat by 5%
• Revenue was down 80% YOY
• Said they expect next quarter revenue to be 250-280m. Consensus was for 304M, so miss by 13%
• Other metrics:
• Gaap Gross margin as -12.8%
• Said their results aligned with their low expectations
• They were expecting inventory clearing adn typical seasonality
• Entering spring, which is when installations typically rise As such, they expect inventory to continue to decline and revenues to improve
• THEIR MAIN PRO RIGHT NOW THEN IS SEAONLITY
• Also focused on a suite of new products that they plan to release in next several quarters

PLNT - down after cutting their full year guidance.

• Lowered full year outlook due to people worried about covid infection and an advertising campaign that flopped.
• EPS of 0.53 vs estimate of 0.49 (beat by 8%)
• Revenue of 248M vs estimate of 249.85M (Miss by 0.8%)
• Ended quarter with 19.6M members
• Same store sales growth of 6.2%
• Mainly, this was driven by new member growth
• Several headwinds in the last quarter:
• Shift in consumer focus in new year to savings and concern in increase in COVID infections
• National advertising campaign they launched didn’t resonate particularly well
• As a result, forced to lower full year outlook.
• Now expects revenue growth of 4-6% from 6-7% before
• Expects EBITDA to increase 7-9% vs 10-11% previously
• Expects Net income to increase 6-8% vs 9-10% previously
• CEO Colleen Keating will be joining in JUNe

YETI

• EPS of 0.34 beat by 41%
• Revenue of 341.4M beat by 2.4%
• Raised annual guidance:
• FY EPS to 2.49-2.62, vs estimate of 2.49
• Revenue to 1.79-1.83B, vs estimate 1.81B
• STORNG BEAT AND RAISE QUARTER
• Direct to consumer sales were up 12% YOY
• Wholesale sales were up 13% YOY
• International sales were up 32% YOY
• US sales were up 9% YOY
• Coolers sales were up 15% YOY
• Sales in drink ware were up 13% YOY
• Said clearly that confidence remains high for the remainder of the year, especially in cooler and equipment segment.

MAG 7:

• TSLA - job cuts are escalating in China, affecting departments such as service staff, engineers, production line workers and logistics team.
• TSLA was down yesterday on US prosecutors investigating whether Tesla misled investors and consumers about its EV self driving capabilities.
• AAPL - Design team faces another top talent departure as Duncan Kerr plans to leave the company soon.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks higher in premarket on strong HKG50 performance.
• Yeti pops one awnings - review above
• SHOP up on price correction nd a number of positive analyst upgrades
• MARA and RIOT down on BTC being down
• COST - April Sales highlights. Sales were up 7.1% YOY. US comp sales were up 5.8% YOY
• Canda comp sales up 5% YOY Ecommerce comp sales up 15% YOY
• So strong sales data for Costco
• PARA, SONY - Sony and Apollo group are reportedly planning to sell off Paramount’s CBS network and cable channels including Nikelodeon and MTV as part of their $26B bid for the company
• SHOP - Cathie Wood bought over 428k shares of shopify yesterday, on its worst day since IPO
• SHOP - JMP has upgraded shopify to market outperform from perform with PT of 80.
• DIS - Starting this summer Disney and WBD will offer a bundle including Disney+, Hulu and Max. Both ad supported and ad free versions will be available.
• DIS - Barclays calls Disney sell off as overdone and sees it as a buying opportunity.
• WBD - also plans fresh cost cuts and a hike in max price.
• HOOD - up on earnings - said that they added 140k new gold members in April alone, which is half the new gold members we got in all of Q1 2024. Thats strong
• GM - will end production of its gasoline powered Chevrolet Malibu Car later this year in order to produce new electric vehicles.
• LYB - intiated a formal review of its European assets, focusing on olefins and polyolefin’s, intermediates and derivatives unit.
• TRIp - yesterday was lower after tempering hopes of a takeover, stating there’s no deal with 3rd party that is in the best interest of the company.
• INTC was down yesterday as they lowered their Q2 guidance for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks Forecasts Q2 revenue to fall below midpoint of 12.5-13.5. Still reitaretad full year
• NIO - will launch its lower priced brand, Onvo on May 15th. First onto model, L60 will be a family centric smart BEV, much cheaper than Model Y from Tesla.
• Huawei advances tech self sufficiency with more Chinese parts in new phone - pure 70 pro features increased chinese made components, including flash memory chip
• BA - Cargo plane lands without front nose gear in Istanbul, investigation launched
• BABA - rolls out largest version of its large language model to meet AI demand.
• ZS is down as they confirm an ongoing investigation into possible data breach
• HUBS - gains amid report that talks with GOOGL are progressing
• APP - pops on earnigns beat which is driven by an improving app ad market, they said.
• BERY - earnings, reported mixed Q1 results, but reaffirmed their FY 2024 outlook
• ALGM earnings
• INFY and Formula E strike new partnership

OTHER NEWS:

• AFFirm eanrings yesterday showed that delinquencies on buy now pay later has doubled.
• UK’s Chancellor Hunt says that the UK has likely escaped recession.
• Fed Collins comments yesterday:
• There are risk to cutting too soon
• Recent inflation setbacks not a surprise
• Monetary policy is restrictive
• Demand will likely ned to slow to get us to 2%, timing of this is uncertain
• Memecoin demand in the crypto space is stronger than ever, says CoinMarket Cap. More and more meme coins being launched
• US saying they will not supply bombs or arms that are going to be used in Rafah
• Israel will reportedly review their Rafah operation after US president comments, threatened that US would stop sending weapons to them if they conduct their Rafah campaign. Israel said they will have to make their army be more economical with their use of weapons and munition.
• US president was unhappy that the bombs supplied by US are being used to kill civilians.
• Musk’s xAI nears close of funding round at $18B valuation, this week
• US Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for Q2 shows growth expected to come at 4.18%, vs previous forecast of 3.31%
• Japan’s currency diplomat, kanda says he is prepared for currency intervention at any time.
• Suzuki says weak yen will have pros and cons. Suzuki aims to mitigate adverse effects of yen depreciation.
• US house votes against ousting Speaker Johnson. Republican Greene had pushed for vote to remove speaker Johnson
• Russia holds victory day military parade as war rumbles on.

FOR MORE OF MY DAILY ANALYSIS, PLEASE JOIN TRADINGEDGE
​

FOR MORE OF MY DAILY ANALYSIS, PLEASE JOIN TRADINGEDGE
Analysis:

• Will keep it brief here.
• We continue to see choppiness under SPX 5200 and in and around QQQ 440.
• This is because prior to OPEX for May, it looks like there’s not much OTM Call delta to push us meaningfully higher. As such, market makers are keeping us hedged and pinned around these key levels. That includes 39k on Dow.
• Overall sentiment is bullish. Look at these positioning charts for SPX and NDX and you can see how much call delta there is.
• https://imgur.com/a/ZgiBjyf
• VIX is being suppressed and traders are short on volatility which is supporting the market higher.
• HY Default Swaps are tight and signal that traders are not particularly worried.
• There are, as of right now, not too many headwinds right now that traders are seeing.
• As such, until opex expect choppiness near these levels. With traders selling vol, if there is any intraday dips it likely won’t last long.
• Goldman Sachs Volatility panic index also tanking, reversing almost all the gains from the recent bump with geopolitical unrest.

DATA LEDE

• BOJ summary of Opinions
• Suggest adjusting degree of easing if price trend rises
• Expects easy financial conditions to continue - dovish
• Rate path may still be higher than market expectations - hawkish
• One member suggested reducing bond purchases.
• Warned of potential inflationary impact from weaker yen
• Japan Leading Index comes in at 111.4, in line with estimates of 111.2
• China exports come +1.5% YOY, vs expectations for 1%. So better than expected demand environment in the world
• Imports were up 8.4% YOY vs 5.4% expected. So better than expected domestic demand environment
• GOOD DATA FOR CHINA

UK BOE RATES DECISION - DOVISH HERE FROM BOE

• Keeps rates stable
• 2 officials, Dhingra and Ramadan voted for a cut by 25bps
• NOW 2 officials voting for Cut. Previously it was just 1
• Looks like they will be ready to cut this summer too.
• Bailey says he is optimistic that things are moving in the right direction
• Sees stronger growth than previously
• Fortcasts unemployment rate lower than previously
• Reiterates that MPC will ensure bank rate is restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation o 2% target
• Policy stance could remain restrictive even if bank rate were cut -
• BOE - increased divergence of demand between US and europe could lead to monetary policy divergence - hint of cut soon
• Bailey says that rate cuts will depend on how data evolves
• BOE BAILEY SYAS IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL NEED TO CUT RATES MORE THAN CURRENTLY RPICED INTO AMRKETS. V DOVISH

US Jobless Claims
US 30Y Treasury auction
Fed Daly Speech
MARKETS:

• SPX trading flat at 5180.
• Nasdaq trading absolutely flat above 18k. At 18,050. 50 day MA is support now, and is at 17,950
• GEr40: Trading at 18,578 - trading slightly higher today again. Still above the 18,500 level. No fear
• Uk100 - pointing towards 8400 now. New highs. Up 0.6% today after of BOE decision. After BOE it jumped from 8360 to 8390
• HKG50 - strong Chinese export and import data so Hong Kong MARKET is higher by 1.8%, trading at 18600.
• China50 is at 12,734, trading up by 0.5%.
• OIL slightly higher - up to 79.37 Yesterday touched lows of below 77. Last candlestick was a bullish engulfing, quite a strong candlestick. Positioning data points to short term bounce.
• GOLD - Continues to trade flat, consolidating above 2312.

FX:

• USD higher this morning
• GBP lower on dovishness from BOE
• Yen continues to weaken after failed intervention

EARNINGS:
ARM

• Full year Revenue guidance missed, but not terrible.
• EPS was 0.36 vs estimates of 0.3 (beat by 20%)
• Revenue of 928M was up 47% YOY, beat by 4.8%
• Guidance for Q1 (next quarter):
• EPS of 0.32-0.36, beat estimates by 10% at midpoint
• Revenue of 875-925, beat estimates by 2% at midpoint
• Guidance for Full year:
• Revenue of 3.8-4.1B, missed the mark by 2%
• EPS of 1.45-1.65, beat by 2%
• Said their designs power nearly every smartphone and they are now expanding into data centres and other markets. V bullish
• Chips with ARM technology generate 200B annually for chipmakers
• Facing competition from Qualcomm
• Increasingly Integral for AI revolution, although they haven’t yet benefited as much as peers like NVDA. Continue to innovate in this space
• Earnigns were actually pretty good, sell off bit harsh.

ABNB

• Down because of Q2 revenue forecast which missed expectations, but did say they expect to see acceleration in Summer due to olympics and summer travel. Still maintained they are seeing strong summer demand.
• CURRENT QUARTER
• Rev $2.14B vs $2.07B est
• EBITDA $424M vs $327M est
• EPS $0.41 vs. $0.30 est
• Gross Booking value came $22.9B vs $22.41B expected
• 9.5% increase YOY in nights and experienced booked, reaching 133M
• Growth was driven by 21% increase in bookings in Asia Pacific and 19% surge in latin America
• North amerce sees slight deceleration
• Average Daily Rates was $173, up 3% YOY.
• GUIDANCE
• Sees 2Q Rev $2.68-2.74B vs $2.74B est
• So Q2 revenue forecast fell short of expectations.
• Headwinds included the timing of easter, a leap day in Q1 and foreign exchange impacts
• Still expects revenue acceleration in Q3, buoyed by strong summer backlog and upcoming events like the olympics
• Cited still strong travel demand globally

TTD

• EPS of 0.26 vs estimate of 0.22 ( beat by 18%)
• Revenue of 491.3M was up 28% YOY, beat by 2.2%
• More performance metrics:
• EBITDA margin was 33%
• Net income was $32M
• GAAP EPS of $0.06
• Q2:
• Revenue is expected to eb at least 575M, beating estimates by 1% at the lower end
• EBITDA expected to be 223M
• Said they saw storng customer retention, over 95% across last 10 years
• CTV inventory - largest marketplace with updates including extended partnerships with Disney, NBCUNiversal and Roku
• OpenPath and OpenPass innovations - enhances direct connections and authentication on open interest
• Repurchased 125M in Q1 and 575M remaining to be repurchased
• Said that advancement in Unified ID 2.0, and Kokai platform means they are sell positioned for market share growth

SEDG:

• EPS of -1.9 vs estimate of -1.57.
• So a considerably wider loss than consensus
• Revenue of 204.4M vs 194.82M - beat by 5%
• Revenue was down 80% YOY
• Said they expect next quarter revenue to be 250-280m. Consensus was for 304M, so miss by 13%
• Other metrics:
• Gaap Gross margin as -12.8%
• Said their results aligned with their low expectations
• They were expecting inventory clearing adn typical seasonality
• Entering spring, which is when installations typically rise As such, they expect inventory to continue to decline and revenues to improve
• THEIR MAIN PRO RIGHT NOW THEN IS SEAONLITY
• Also focused on a suite of new products that they plan to release in next several quarters

PLNT - down after cutting their full year guidance.

• Lowered full year outlook due to people worried about covid infection and an advertising campaign that flopped.
• EPS of 0.53 vs estimate of 0.49 (beat by 8%)
• Revenue of 248M vs estimate of 249.85M (Miss by 0.8%)
• Ended quarter with 19.6M members
• Same store sales growth of 6.2%
• Mainly, this was driven by new member growth
• Several headwinds in the last quarter:
• Shift in consumer focus in new year to savings and concern in increase in COVID infections
• National advertising campaign they launched didn’t resonate particularly well
• As a result, forced to lower full year outlook.
• Now expects revenue growth of 4-6% from 6-7% before
• Expects EBITDA to increase 7-9% vs 10-11% previously
• Expects Net income to increase 6-8% vs 9-10% previously
• CEO Colleen Keating will be joining in JUNe

YETI

• EPS of 0.34 beat by 41%
• Revenue of 341.4M beat by 2.4%
• Raised annual guidance:
• FY EPS to 2.49-2.62, vs estimate of 2.49
• Revenue to 1.79-1.83B, vs estimate 1.81B
• STORNG BEAT AND RAISE QUARTER
• Direct to consumer sales were up 12% YOY
• Wholesale sales were up 13% YOY
• International sales were up 32% YOY
• US sales were up 9% YOY
• Coolers sales were up 15% YOY
• Sales in drink ware were up 13% YOY
• Said clearly that confidence remains high for the remainder of the year, especially in cooler and equipment segment.

MAG 7:

• TSLA - job cuts are escalating in China, affecting departments such as service staff, engineers, production line workers and logistics team.
• TSLA was down yesterday on US prosecutors investigating whether Tesla misled investors and consumers about its EV self driving capabilities.
• AAPL - Design team faces another top talent departure as Duncan Kerr plans to leave the company soon.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks higher in premarket on strong HKG50 performance.
• Yeti pops one awnings - review above
• SHOP up on price correction nd a number of positive analyst upgrades
• MARA and RIOT down on BTC being down
• COST - April Sales highlights. Sales were up 7.1% YOY. US comp sales were up 5.8% YOY
• Canda comp sales up 5% YOY Ecommerce comp sales up 15% YOY
• So strong sales data for Costco
• PARA, SONY - Sony and Apollo group are reportedly planning to sell off Paramount’s CBS network and cable channels including Nikelodeon and MTV as part of their $26B bid for the company
• SHOP - Cathie Wood bought over 428k shares of shopify yesterday, on its worst day since IPO
• SHOP - JMP has upgraded shopify to market outperform from perform with PT of 80.
• DIS - Starting this summer Disney and WBD will offer a bundle including Disney+, Hulu and Max. Both ad supported and ad free versions will be available.
• DIS - Barclays calls Disney sell off as overdone and sees it as a buying opportunity.
• WBD - also plans fresh cost cuts and a hike in max price.
• HOOD - up on earnings - said that they added 140k new gold members in April alone, which is half the new gold members we got in all of Q1 2024. Thats strong
• GM - will end production of its gasoline powered Chevrolet Malibu Car later this year in order to produce new electric vehicles.
• LYB - intiated a formal review of its European assets, focusing on olefins and polyolefin’s, intermediates and derivatives unit.
• TRIp - yesterday was lower after tempering hopes of a takeover, stating there’s no deal with 3rd party that is in the best interest of the company.
• INTC was down yesterday as they lowered their Q2 guidance for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks Forecasts Q2 revenue to fall below midpoint of 12.5-13.5. Still reitaretad full year
• NIO - will launch its lower priced brand, Onvo on May 15th. First onto model, L60 will be a family centric smart BEV, much cheaper than Model Y from Tesla.
• Huawei advances tech self sufficiency with more Chinese parts in new phone - pure 70 pro features increased chinese made components, including flash memory chip
• BA - Cargo plane lands without front nose gear in Istanbul, investigation launched
• BABA - rolls out largest version of its large language model to meet AI demand.
• ZS is down as they confirm an ongoing investigation into possible data breach
• HUBS - gains amid report that talks with GOOGL are progressing
• APP - pops on earnigns beat which is driven by an improving app ad market, they said.
• BERY - earnings, reported mixed Q1 results, but reaffirmed their FY 2024 outlook
• ALGM earnings
• INFY and Formula E strike new partnership

OTHER NEWS:

• AFFirm eanrings yesterday showed that delinquencies on buy now pay later has doubled.
• UK’s Chancellor Hunt says that the UK has likely escaped recession.
• Fed Collins comments yesterday:
• There are risk to cutting too soon
• Recent inflation setbacks not a surprise
• Monetary policy is restrictive
• Demand will likely ned to slow to get us to 2%, timing of this is uncertain
• Memecoin demand in the crypto space is stronger than ever, says CoinMarket Cap. More and more meme coins being launched
• US saying they will not supply bombs or arms that are going to be used in Rafah
• Israel will reportedly review their Rafah operation after US president comments, threatened that US would stop sending weapons to them if they conduct their Rafah campaign. Israel said they will have to make their army be more economical with their use of weapons and munition.
• US president was unhappy that the bombs supplied by US are being used to kill civilians.
• Musk’s xAI nears close of funding round at $18B valuation, this week
• US Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for Q2 shows growth expected to come at 4.18%, vs previous forecast of 3.31%
• Japan’s currency diplomat, kanda says he is prepared for currency intervention at any time.
• Suzuki says weak yen will have pros and cons. Suzuki aims to mitigate adverse effects of yen depreciation.
• US house votes against ousting Speaker Johnson. Republican Greene had pushed for vote to remove speaker Johnson
• Russia holds victory day military parade as war rumbles on.

FOR MORE OF MY DAILY ANALYSIS, PLEASE JOIN TRADINGEDGE
​

FOR MORE OF MY DAILY ANALYSIS, PLEASE JOIN TRADINGEDGE
Analysis:

• Will keep it brief here.
• We continue to see choppiness under SPX 5200 and in and around QQQ 440.
• This is because prior to OPEX for May, it looks like there’s not much OTM Call delta to push us meaningfully higher. As such, market makers are keeping us hedged and pinned around these key levels. That includes 39k on Dow.
• Overall sentiment is bullish. Look at these positioning charts for SPX and NDX and you can see how much call delta there is.
• https://imgur.com/a/ZgiBjyf
• VIX is being suppressed and traders are short on volatility which is supporting the market higher.
• HY Default Swaps are tight and signal that traders are not particularly worried.
• There are, as of right now, not too many headwinds right now that traders are seeing.
• As such, until opex expect choppiness near these levels. With traders selling vol, if there is any intraday dips it likely won’t last long.
• Goldman Sachs Volatility panic index also tanking, reversing almost all the gains from the recent bump with geopolitical unrest.

DATA LEDE

• BOJ summary of Opinions
• Suggest adjusting degree of easing if price trend rises
• Expects easy financial conditions to continue - dovish
• Rate path may still be higher than market expectations - hawkish
• One member suggested reducing bond purchases.
• Warned of potential inflationary impact from weaker yen
• Japan Leading Index comes in at 111.4, in line with estimates of 111.2
• China exports come +1.5% YOY, vs expectations for 1%. So better than expected demand environment in the world
• Imports were up 8.4% YOY vs 5.4% expected. So better than expected domestic demand environment
• GOOD DATA FOR CHINA

UK BOE RATES DECISION - DOVISH HERE FROM BOE

• Keeps rates stable
• 2 officials, Dhingra and Ramadan voted for a cut by 25bps
• NOW 2 officials voting for Cut. Previously it was just 1
• Looks like they will be ready to cut this summer too.
• Bailey says he is optimistic that things are moving in the right direction
• Sees stronger growth than previously
• Fortcasts unemployment rate lower than previously
• Reiterates that MPC will ensure bank rate is restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation o 2% target
• Policy stance could remain restrictive even if bank rate were cut -
• BOE - increased divergence of demand between US and europe could lead to monetary policy divergence - hint of cut soon
• Bailey says that rate cuts will depend on how data evolves
• BOE BAILEY SYAS IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL NEED TO CUT RATES MORE THAN CURRENTLY RPICED INTO AMRKETS. V DOVISH

US Jobless Claims
US 30Y Treasury auction
Fed Daly Speech
MARKETS:

• SPX trading flat at 5180.
• Nasdaq trading absolutely flat above 18k. At 18,050. 50 day MA is support now, and is at 17,950
• GEr40: Trading at 18,578 - trading slightly higher today again. Still above the 18,500 level. No fear
• Uk100 - pointing towards 8400 now. New highs. Up 0.6% today after of BOE decision. After BOE it jumped from 8360 to 8390
• HKG50 - strong Chinese export and import data so Hong Kong MARKET is higher by 1.8%, trading at 18600.
• China50 is at 12,734, trading up by 0.5%.
• OIL slightly higher - up to 79.37 Yesterday touched lows of below 77. Last candlestick was a bullish engulfing, quite a strong candlestick. Positioning data points to short term bounce.
• GOLD - Continues to trade flat, consolidating above 2312.

FX:

• USD higher this morning
• GBP lower on dovishness from BOE
• Yen continues to weaken after failed intervention

EARNINGS:
ARM

• Full year Revenue guidance missed, but not terrible.
• EPS was 0.36 vs estimates of 0.3 (beat by 20%)
• Revenue of 928M was up 47% YOY, beat by 4.8%
• Guidance for Q1 (next quarter):
• EPS of 0.32-0.36, beat estimates by 10% at midpoint
• Revenue of 875-925, beat estimates by 2% at midpoint
• Guidance for Full year:
• Revenue of 3.8-4.1B, missed the mark by 2%
• EPS of 1.45-1.65, beat by 2%
• Said their designs power nearly every smartphone and they are now expanding into data centres and other markets. V bullish
• Chips with ARM technology generate 200B annually for chipmakers
• Facing competition from Qualcomm
• Increasingly Integral for AI revolution, although they haven’t yet benefited as much as peers like NVDA. Continue to innovate in this space
• Earnigns were actually pretty good, sell off bit harsh.

ABNB

• Down because of Q2 revenue forecast which missed expectations, but did say they expect to see acceleration in Summer due to olympics and summer travel. Still maintained they are seeing strong summer demand.
• CURRENT QUARTER
• Rev $2.14B vs $2.07B est
• EBITDA $424M vs $327M est
• EPS $0.41 vs. $0.30 est
• Gross Booking value came $22.9B vs $22.41B expected
• 9.5% increase YOY in nights and experienced booked, reaching 133M
• Growth was driven by 21% increase in bookings in Asia Pacific and 19% surge in latin America
• North amerce sees slight deceleration
• Average Daily Rates was $173, up 3% YOY.
• GUIDANCE
• Sees 2Q Rev $2.68-2.74B vs $2.74B est
• So Q2 revenue forecast fell short of expectations.
• Headwinds included the timing of easter, a leap day in Q1 and foreign exchange impacts
• Still expects revenue acceleration in Q3, buoyed by strong summer backlog and upcoming events like the olympics
• Cited still strong travel demand globally

TTD

• EPS of 0.26 vs estimate of 0.22 ( beat by 18%)
• Revenue of 491.3M was up 28% YOY, beat by 2.2%
• More performance metrics:
• EBITDA margin was 33%
• Net income was $32M
• GAAP EPS of $0.06
• Q2:
• Revenue is expected to eb at least 575M, beating estimates by 1% at the lower end
• EBITDA expected to be 223M
• Said they saw storng customer retention, over 95% across last 10 years
• CTV inventory - largest marketplace with updates including extended partnerships with Disney, NBCUNiversal and Roku
• OpenPath and OpenPass innovations - enhances direct connections and authentication on open interest
• Repurchased 125M in Q1 and 575M remaining to be repurchased
• Said that advancement in Unified ID 2.0, and Kokai platform means they are sell positioned for market share growth

SEDG:

• EPS of -1.9 vs estimate of -1.57.
• So a considerably wider loss than consensus
• Revenue of 204.4M vs 194.82M - beat by 5%
• Revenue was down 80% YOY
• Said they expect next quarter revenue to be 250-280m. Consensus was for 304M, so miss by 13%
• Other metrics:
• Gaap Gross margin as -12.8%
• Said their results aligned with their low expectations
• They were expecting inventory clearing adn typical seasonality
• Entering spring, which is when installations typically rise As such, they expect inventory to continue to decline and revenues to improve
• THEIR MAIN PRO RIGHT NOW THEN IS SEAONLITY
• Also focused on a suite of new products that they plan to release in next several quarters

PLNT - down after cutting their full year guidance.

• Lowered full year outlook due to people worried about covid infection and an advertising campaign that flopped.
• EPS of 0.53 vs estimate of 0.49 (beat by 8%)
• Revenue of 248M vs estimate of 249.85M (Miss by 0.8%)
• Ended quarter with 19.6M members
• Same store sales growth of 6.2%
• Mainly, this was driven by new member growth
• Several headwinds in the last quarter:
• Shift in consumer focus in new year to savings and concern in increase in COVID infections
• National advertising campaign they launched didn’t resonate particularly well
• As a result, forced to lower full year outlook.
• Now expects revenue growth of 4-6% from 6-7% before
• Expects EBITDA to increase 7-9% vs 10-11% previously
• Expects Net income to increase 6-8% vs 9-10% previously
• CEO Colleen Keating will be joining in JUNe

YETI

• EPS of 0.34 beat by 41%
• Revenue of 341.4M beat by 2.4%
• Raised annual guidance:
• FY EPS to 2.49-2.62, vs estimate of 2.49
• Revenue to 1.79-1.83B, vs estimate 1.81B
• STORNG BEAT AND RAISE QUARTER
• Direct to consumer sales were up 12% YOY
• Wholesale sales were up 13% YOY
• International sales were up 32% YOY
• US sales were up 9% YOY
• Coolers sales were up 15% YOY
• Sales in drink ware were up 13% YOY
• Said clearly that confidence remains high for the remainder of the year, especially in cooler and equipment segment.

MAG 7:

• TSLA - job cuts are escalating in China, affecting departments such as service staff, engineers, production line workers and logistics team.
• TSLA was down yesterday on US prosecutors investigating whether Tesla misled investors and consumers about its EV self driving capabilities.
• AAPL - Design team faces another top talent departure as Duncan Kerr plans to leave the company soon.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Chinese stocks higher in premarket on strong HKG50 performance.
• Yeti pops one awnings - review above
• SHOP up on price correction nd a number of positive analyst upgrades
• MARA and RIOT down on BTC being down
• COST - April Sales highlights. Sales were up 7.1% YOY. US comp sales were up 5.8% YOY
• Canda comp sales up 5% YOY Ecommerce comp sales up 15% YOY
• So strong sales data for Costco
• PARA, SONY - Sony and Apollo group are reportedly planning to sell off Paramount’s CBS network and cable channels including Nikelodeon and MTV as part of their $26B bid for the company
• SHOP - Cathie Wood bought over 428k shares of shopify yesterday, on its worst day since IPO
• SHOP - JMP has upgraded shopify to market outperform from perform with PT of 80.
• DIS - Starting this summer Disney and WBD will offer a bundle including Disney+, Hulu and Max. Both ad supported and ad free versions will be available.
• DIS - Barclays calls Disney sell off as overdone and sees it as a buying opportunity.
• WBD - also plans fresh cost cuts and a hike in max price.
• HOOD - up on earnings - said that they added 140k new gold members in April alone, which is half the new gold members we got in all of Q1 2024. Thats strong
• GM - will end production of its gasoline powered Chevrolet Malibu Car later this year in order to produce new electric vehicles.
• LYB - intiated a formal review of its European assets, focusing on olefins and polyolefin’s, intermediates and derivatives unit.
• TRIp - yesterday was lower after tempering hopes of a takeover, stating there’s no deal with 3rd party that is in the best interest of the company.
• INTC was down yesterday as they lowered their Q2 guidance for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks Forecasts Q2 revenue to fall below midpoint of 12.5-13.5. Still reitaretad full year
• NIO - will launch its lower priced brand, Onvo on May 15th. First onto model, L60 will be a family centric smart BEV, much cheaper than Model Y from Tesla.
• Huawei advances tech self sufficiency with more Chinese parts in new phone - pure 70 pro features increased chinese made components, including flash memory chip
• BA - Cargo plane lands without front nose gear in Istanbul, investigation launched
• BABA - rolls out largest version of its large language model to meet AI demand.
• ZS is down as they confirm an ongoing investigation into possible data breach
• HUBS - gains amid report that talks with GOOGL are progressing
• APP - pops on earnigns beat which is driven by an improving app ad market, they said.
• BERY - earnings, reported mixed Q1 results, but reaffirmed their FY 2024 outlook
• ALGM earnings
• INFY and Formula E strike new partnership

OTHER NEWS:

• AFFirm eanrings yesterday showed that delinquencies on buy now pay later has doubled.
• UK’s Chancellor Hunt says that the UK has likely escaped recession.
• Fed Collins comments yesterday:
• There are risk to cutting too soon
• Recent inflation setbacks not a surprise
• Monetary policy is restrictive
• Demand will likely ned to slow to get us to 2%, timing of this is uncertain
• Memecoin demand in the crypto space is stronger than ever, says CoinMarket Cap. More and more meme coins being launched
• US saying they will not supply bombs or arms that are going to be used in Rafah
• Israel will reportedly review their Rafah operation after US president comments, threatened that US would stop sending weapons to them if they conduct their Rafah campaign. Israel said they will have to make their army be more economical with their use of weapons and munition.
• US president was unhappy that the bombs supplied by US are being used to kill civilians.
• Musk’s xAI nears close of funding round at $18B valuation, this week
• US Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for Q2 shows growth expected to come at 4.18%, vs previous forecast of 3.31%
• Japan’s currency diplomat, kanda says he is prepared for currency intervention at any time.
• Suzuki says weak yen will have pros and cons. Suzuki aims to mitigate adverse effects of yen depreciation.
• US house votes against ousting Speaker Johnson. Republican Greene had pushed for vote to remove speaker Johnson
• Russia holds victory day military parade as war rumbles on.

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Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.
This is a daily watchlist for trading.
I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.
I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.
Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on _____? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question.
News: Uber Bookings Miss on Early Holidays, Weak Regional Demand
Earnings Today: ABNB, AMC, BMBL, BYND, CE, HOOD
RDDT: Reports earnings of -8.19 vs -2.34 expected, revenue of 243M vs 212M expected. Even with the 37% user growth I am surprised that we’re up as much as we are.
UBER- Reports -.08 vs 0.21 expected, revenue met expectations. Overall expectations slightly missed and Uber lost despites increasing revenue.
LYFT- Reports beat on earnings, 0.15 vs 0.09 expected, revenue of 1.28B vs 1.17B.
GME- We saw massive momentum Friday at the close, then again Monday in the morning. It hasn’t retraced the move from yesterday, so still worth keeping an eye on. $17 level worth watching.
SHOP- Stock falls close to 20% on weak guidance, reports beat on top and bottom line but gave downward guidance for second quarter. .20 vs .17e, revenue is 1.86 vs 1.85b expected.
Longer-term watches: NVDA/SMCI, BA, ULTA, TSLA