Kc3rd.pbworks.com f 3rd grade context clues.pdf

AITAH for telling everyone that my friend of 4+ yrs cheated on her boyfriend with several people, several times?

2024.05.14 04:14 Imdeadashell AITAH for telling everyone that my friend of 4+ yrs cheated on her boyfriend with several people, several times?

TW: mentions of suicide, self harm, brief mentions of physical, mental and child abuse along with a few other things that might trigger people.
I, (13-15 female) have a small group of friends. (All around 13-15, mainly female) But there has been some major drama in our friend group and I need advice on what to do.
I've had this friend who we'll call Sam. Sam and I have know each other since we were around 6 yrs old. We met in YeaPrimary 2. (For all the people not from the UK, that would be 1st grade)
We have known each other from then all the way until now. But this is when the drama starts.
For context, My group of friends has 4 people in it. (Including me) and one of these friends, who I'll call Rich, wanted to meet sam. But since Rich lives at least 4 hours away from us, I decided to set up an online game for us to play and for Sam and Rich to get to know each other and ask each other questions.
Sometime into the game I get a private message from Sam.
That's when Sam told me she had a crush on Rich. (We were less then 10 minutes into the game aka less then 10 minutes knowing each other) And she asked if she should tell him. I was (mostly) happy for my friend as she hasnt dated for a few years and told her to shoot her shot. And turns out, Rich liked Sam back. So they started dating.
BTW, Sam had just ghosted someone she dated online and did role-plays with, a few days before this happened. (Keep this in mind)
So some background, our entire group of friends play online role-playing games (In a private server) since we all like being able to make role-plays and storylines, except Sam. (She can be really picky)
This is how Sam and Rich basically went on dates. They also invited me to join them sometimes so they had someone else to play the "extra characters" in their role-plays. Their role-plays mostly consisted of guy x guy, mafia bosses and the typical cringe gacha storylines from 2018. I hated the 'maifa guy buys a slave' type tropes they did but I did it with them anyway because Sam always ended up getting mad and ignoring me if I said no or suggested something different.
This whole role-playing thing went on for a few months. That's when I saw Sam online with Mike. (Mike is the name of the person Sam dated online before Rich, I was friends with Mike and still was at the time despite their break up) I decided to join them and see what they were doing on a server together. (Sam had told me and Rich several times that she hated Mike and she always said he was a "alpha bad boy wannbe")
Once I joined I looked in the chat I saw a bunch of messages like Kisses softly (From Mike) and "You're sexy~" (From Sam) I was extremely confused and decided to ask Sam about this later when she wasn't on the server. She said something along the lines of "I was joking around, I never actually broke up with Mike šŸ¤£".
So I was extremely confused and asked Rich if he knew about this.
That's where it all went to shit afterwards. (Don't worry, it gets worse)
To give a short rundown since this post is already long, Sam was cheating on Mike with Rich while also cheating on Rich with Mike as they both though that Sam dated them and had blocked the other person. When Rich 1st confronted her she said they were in a polyamous relationship. (They were not) This kept happening until eventually Mike blocked everyone (Except me) and really didn't talk to any of us. (Or so I thought.)
I always thought that Rich and Sam shouldn't be dating but I stayed out of it because Sam is the only friend I can really talk to and hang out with, without feeling anxious.
Then I found out that Sam was cheating on Rich AGAIN with a girl from her class called Jaime. Then she cheated AGAIN with a girl from my class who I'll call Autumn.
So not only did Sam cheat on Rich with 3 different people. She did it SEVERAL TIMES WITH THOSE PEOPLE.
I eventually distanced myself from the group as a whole. (I also was in hospital which helped me to ignore all of the drama as I was recovering from surgery)
That's when I found a message in the group chat. (The group chat had me, Sam, Jaime and one of Sam's friends in it as well) The message said "Imagine if Rich knew about you dating me and Autumn šŸ¤£šŸ’€" from Jaime.
I told Rich literally everything including screenshots and evidence I had. He didn't believe me until he asked Sam which to that she laughed about it and told him that her adhd made her do bad things. Rich then went into a major depressive episode and he wouldn't respond at all to anyone.
Rich even cut himself and attempted suicide. (He has home issues and several mental illnesses, which Sam knew of) Thankfully he survived.
But here's the thing, Sam and Rich GOT BACK TOGETHER AFTER WHAT HAPPENED.
I was absolutely fucking horrified by this as it seemed to be a severely toxic and maybe even abusive relationship (Psychologically) since Rich had Bipolar and Sam used to blame him for acting weird and blamed him for her cheating.
Here's where I think I became the asshole.
I made a throwaway account and took screenshots of everything and sent them to Jaime, Autumn, Rich, our group of friends and basically everyone who knew of the drama. Which included most of the school. (And even random people from other school that knew some of the gossip)
Then it got revealed that Sam had ONLINE SEX WITH MIKE AND RICH WHILE SAM WAS DATING BOTH OF THEM AND AFTER MIKE SUPPOSEDLY BLOCKED HER!!
And then it turns out that Sam, who is bisexual, called Richs gay BFF( I'll call him Matt) a gay bastard and the F-slur. TWICE.
Ans then it turns out, after Sam had cheated on Rich the first or second time, Rich started DATING MATT AND THEY ONLY BROKE UP BECAUSE RICH FELT GUILTY.
Then Sam and Rich got into a massive fight which lead to Rich attempting suicide again. Sam said, and i quote, "womp wompšŸ™„" when told about Richs second sucide attempt and also then Rich told her that his cat had died.
They then broke up and he blocked her on everything.
I felt horrible. I felt like I shouldn't of told everyone what Sam did and I shouldn't of put myself into their relationship..
I felt really depressed and guilty and I thought (and still do) that it was all my fault..
I honestly think I'm the asshole and I shouldn't of done anything considering I don't have any dating experience at all and I don't have any of the disorders Sam or Rich has...
But I've always been told to get a second opinion on everything so I wanted to ask Reddit. (Not the most logical way to do it but I'm desperate af)
So Reddit, AITAH?
I'm sorry if the spelling or wording is off, I'm writing this at 3:13 am and I have school at 8:30. But I am desperate to hear someone else's opinion on this as I feel i am going insane. I'll try and answer any questions as best as I can.
(Ps. Sam has dyslexia and supposedly has adhd as well which she uses as an excuse for why she cheated and blamed Rich. She also used the excuse that her home life is terrible. Which it is. Rich has autism, adhd, bipolar, lack of awareness and is physically and metally abused by his parents. And before I forget, my mother was walking home from work one night and saw Sam HITTING her MOTHER with a stick and laughing about it)
I will honestly appreciate ANY help or opinion given on my situation..
submitted by Imdeadashell to AITAH [link] [comments]


2024.05.14 03:31 LittleBirdSansa The ableism really jumps out of medical records, geez

I was reading some summarized medical notes from childhood just for kicks and giggles and man, talk about really seeing some of the ableism. I knew what I was in for since I had recently requested later records, so for this one I opted to just get abstract summaries. I had no particular motivation in getting these records other than a strong idle curiosity. I now have a few connected diagnoses, you know the ones, POTS/EDS, allergies, asthma, and also narcolepsy is thrown in there just for fun. Plus the occasional eczema flare up and recurring headaches that never stay on my chart.
I think some small part of me hoped that the notes from my pediatric time would show doctors who cared but couldnā€™t figure out the problem. With the records I found from my high school years, that tiny hope was quashed without a bit of surprise.
When I was a kid, weā€™d been in and out for years between headaches and abdominal pain. Lots of the abstracts imply my mom is somehow at fault for bringing me in but oh this one section just made me put my phone down. I was 9 at the time of this visit, just for context. Cynicism was clear in the notes that I was being coached on describing my headaches because I sometimes looked to my mother to help me explain or give details on symptoms of my severe headaches, specifically the possible auras. Probably because I was in too much pain at the time to code the memories properly and also I was barely 9, of course I was going to check with my mom.
Multiple notes reference me watching TV or reading or listening to soothing music ā€œdespiteā€ my headaches and idk maybe I did but I also know I had a lot of times I laid in the bathroom because it was the only quiet and dark place.
Apparently abdominal migraines are a thing and even when one of the medical professionals said that seemed to be part of my problems, the sheer skepticism oozing from these notesā€¦I have to laugh so I donā€™t get angry. It 100% sounds like my symptoms were worsened by my anxiety/depression but my mom brought me into the office during one and I was clearly suffering, that wasnā€™t ā€œjustā€ psychosomatic. Also, luckily, I outgrew the abdominal migraines.
I also had an essential tremor (now treated perhaps thanks to my POTS beta blocker) worsened by anxiety and I acknowledge it was worsened by anxiety, that doesnā€™t mean caused by anxiety ffs. That issue came up later, in the previous set of requested records. Also we kept bringing it up with doctors because my teachers were commenting to us on it out of concern.
Back to the records I just got though. Multiple instances occurred where we got blamed by one specialist for trusting another. Example: with the GI issues, one person told us maybe it was lactose intolerance. Another person down the line would take notes like we were hypochondriacs for saying ā€œperson 1 said maybe thereā€™s lactose intolerance, maybe thatā€™s part of it? We were told to track if symptoms were worse after milk. They didnā€™t seem to be but maybe?ā€ The test for it later came back negative and the notes sound so high and mighty that again, itā€™s laughable.
Also the amount of ā€œin no acute distressā€ despite coming in for complaints of pain, etc. Iā€™m not surprised but I am somehow still disappointed.
Mom did get anxious about my health sometimes, seems she tried to keep me away from milk for a bit just in case. I also do believe there were some things where she brought me in unnecessarily but the poor woman was an anxious first time parent. I fault her for lots of other things but not being overly worried about my health to doctors who kept dismissing everything. Plus, Iā€™ve always been extremely sensitive to physical stimuli and imagine I was deeply unpleasant when dealing with that discomfort while learning how to be a human.
On a more lighthearted note, apparently I took a prescription of belladonna for a while, I didnā€™t even know that was a thing but it was a fun Google rabbit hole to go down. I guess I also played soccer when I was in 3rd grade, which was news to me! I donā€™t doubt it, I just didnā€™t remember Iā€™d played it.
Iā€™m not genuinely distressed, like I said, I expected the ableism. Mostly Iā€™m just satisfied to have my curiosity largely sated and a better timeline of certain things in my own life. As sad as it is, I canā€™t help laughing that multiple grown ass adults with medical degrees seemed to have one-sided beef with prepubescent me. Why even go into pediatrics, especially a pediatric specialty like urology, cardiology, etc.? (Rhetorical question)
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2024.05.14 01:32 beethovenftw (Spoilers for 2.2 & potentially 2.3) A hidden secret in Penacony

DO NOT READ if you want to discover things for yourself. I suspect this may be a plot point in 2.3
There is quite a few things that are very random and yet unexplained in 2.0-2.2 story. There is a commonality between them.
Tiernan was ambushed by the Swarm near Penacony. But.. why is there Swarm in Asdana? Where are they hiding?
https://preview.redd.it/s2nttwq0ja0d1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd51bef9207dbd6cc30b8022928f77a69378774e
Razalina's story has the following "Towards the end of the War of Independence, she piloted a shuttle alone into the Memory Zone in search of secrets about the Primordial Dreamscape. She was never heard from again". Suspicious. Tiernan & Mikhail both had VAs, maybe we'll hear from her in the future?
Why is Argenti in Penacony? Last time he showed up, it was to deal with the Swarm and the story was about hallucinations caused by the bugs (referred to as "inharmonious pitch"). That story was kinda random and out of context with the entire Trailblaze quest. Unless... Oh wait, he is here again in Penacony for no reason whatsoever?
https://preview.redd.it/gv0em0cjga0d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c704ec36f7b5b2ad156879919eaf6237b0d953a
Furthermore, Argenti's quest, Ruan Mei's quest, Swarm disaster, all about the Swarm, all right before Penacony seems... coincidental
In 2.0, in Sampo/Sparkle's Belobog dreamscape, we run into a Swarm bug hidden in a trashcan. Then Sampo starts bombing the f out of all the trashcans. Why would they bother introducing something so random? The swarm never even appeared in the main story before. In fact, wtf was the point of that dream to begin with? Unless... Sparkle was trying to tell us something
https://preview.redd.it/v1pxz1emia0d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=2738a8b1fae72d042a7d0eff646f9183c3f27be8
https://preview.redd.it/wxm28txfea0d1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=96e059a7f7ef50c0a467544754db979bac060742
Then Sparkle starts handing out bombs left and right no reason whatsoever. Why?
Sunday said something along the lines of "it is not you who manipulates the Stellaron, but.." to the "Dreammaster", who told him to "No more questions". And then hundreds of raven corpses lie on the ground. What was this about? Why is "Dreammaster" in quotes. Why hundreds of ravens, not just one (sign of self-propagation)
https://preview.redd.it/br02qo9pla0d1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=92612d42375e7c998b8b27249f70b5a118e9049e
Forces of Preservation, Elation, Glamoth's Iron Cavalry, Order, Harmony, Trailblaze are all gathered on Penacony. Is it truely to deal with just Sunday and a Stellaron? When was the last time exactly these Aeons gathered from across the cosmos to deal with a crisis: The Swarm Disaster
Finally, more realistically speaking, 2.3 is Firefly's banner. What better way than to go out in a blaze of glory (3rd death) against the Swarm to end her story of Sam and begin her story as Firefly? (also this hypothesis gives Sunday an opportunity to redeem himself, which Hoyo likes to do for potential future banner characters)
tl;dr: The Swarm was the mastermind who brought the Stellaron to Penacony, hoping to hide within the Harmony/Order and absorb dream as power for rebirth.
submitted by beethovenftw to HonkaiStarRail [link] [comments]


2024.05.13 21:20 rachelstowersss I keep thinking about my ex

Me (17 F) and my ex-boyfriend (17 M) have been apart for almost exactly a year. He broke up with me May 7th, 2023. We were together for three years and we began dating in middle school at the end of 7th grade year. It was good until it wasnā€™t. He had a girl best friend (17 F, 15 F at the time) who went against my trust every chance she got. She would do the average ā€œpick meā€ girl tactics on him and he didnā€™t really seem to pick up on them despite me expressing my concerns. One day she went too far and added me and my ex-boyfriend to a private snapchat story with roughly 200-300 people in it. There, she posted a bikini photo where everything was showing except for her nipples and butthole. When I say everythingā€”I mean everything. Now, I know he saw this photo because I had his Snapchat login. We both had each others passwords, but it didnā€™t really matter for him because he wasnā€™t allowed to have any social media apps other than Snapchat. Anyway, he had seen the photo hours before I did and when I confronted him about it he said ā€œI saw it and clicked away because I saw that it wasnā€™t you, so I didnā€™t want to see itā€. Right. So after that entire thing went down, his friend group resented me and said I ā€œdidnā€™t want my ex and this girl to be friends only based on the idea of my ex having female friendsā€. I didnā€™t care if he had female friends, I cared that his only female friend was putting her ā€˜nudesā€™ on display for him. When we broke up, he ghosted me for 3 days before sending me a lengthy text that can be summed up to: ā€œI lost my spark with you a year ago when I couldnā€™t be friends with her. We donā€™t work anymore, youā€™re too dictatorial. Iā€™ve talked to my family and theyā€™ve told me that Iā€™m not totally crazy for thinking this way.ā€ Some extra context: heā€™s in love with his mom, and sheā€™s in love with him. She keeps his foreskin in a bag in their basement. At one point his mom started ignoring me after I asked for shelter from my abusive father who was threatening to go against my restraining order and come to my new house (which they refused to give me). I also guarantee she could hear my ex-boyfriend SA-ing me in his roomā€”his house wasnā€™t big enough for that to be private. Even after all of that, I think about him. I donā€™t understand why and I want it to stop. Itā€™s been a year, how much longer do I have to wait it out? I have a new boyfriend who I love very much. Itā€™s not fair to him.
submitted by rachelstowersss to relationships_advice [link] [comments]


2024.05.13 18:49 C---D May 14, 2024, Wordle #1060

Wordle 1060 3/6* Grade: Aāˆ’ (91%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Skill Luck Info Gained Grade
SOARE šŸŸØā¬›šŸŸ©ā¬›ā¬› 174 14 83 84 67% Cāˆ’
CLASH ā¬›ā¬›šŸŸ©šŸŸ©ā¬› 12 2 99 50 91% C
AMASS šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” 99 74 100% A+
https://gradle.app/#SN65wEugPpI7pQvo
Wordlescope's guide animal: Hellbender Salamander
šŸ† Golfle 1060: Birdie šŸ„
šŸŒļøā€ā™‚ļø āā—¦ āā—¦ āā—¦ ā›³ļø
šŸŸ”āšŖļøšŸŸ¢āšŖļøāšŖļø āšŖļøāšŖļøšŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢āšŖļø šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢
https://wordle.golf
Ongoing Golfle score (Par = 4 guesses):
Time Period Number of "Holes" Score
March 2024 31 āˆ’21
April 2024 30 āˆ’24
May 2024 14 āˆ’12
What would Scoredle do?
Wordle 1060 3/6* Grade: A (94%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Grade
SLATE šŸŸØā¬›šŸŸ©ā¬›ā¬› 183 13 Cāˆ’
CRASS ā¬›ā¬›šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© 4 1 Aāˆ’
AMASS šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” A+
https://gradle.app/#SN65uwHvbk6ISYHE
What would WordleBot do?
Regular mode analysis: Wordle 1060 4/6 Grade: B (86%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Grade
CRANE ā¬›ā¬›šŸŸ©ā¬›ā¬› 376 49 Dāˆ’
SPILT šŸŸØā¬›ā¬›ā¬›ā¬› 44 3 F
AWASH šŸŸ©ā¬›šŸŸ©šŸŸ©ā¬› 2 1 A
AMASS šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” A+
https://gradle.app/#20qcyW8YhSVhbWOBpakbU
Hard mode analysis: Wordle 1060 3/6* Grade: B (86%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Grade
PLATE ā¬›ā¬›šŸŸ©ā¬›ā¬› 419 71 Dāˆ’
SHARK šŸŸØā¬›šŸŸ©ā¬›ā¬› 53 2 F
AMASS šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” A+
https://gradle.app/#SN64osMBgw9zVW0y
Double-letter tracker for this month:
Days Double-Letter Answers
14 1
After no double letters for the month so far, we get double-double letters. For my 3rd guess, I had a 50/50 choice between the solution and QUASI, and so did WordleBot in hard mode. The bot's dictionary also had AVAST which isn't on the original answer list.
submitted by C---D to WordleBuddy [link] [comments]


2024.05.13 16:04 cjfreel 2024 Post-Draft Rookie RB Rooms Part 2: NFC

With a lot changed between Free Agency, a few trades, and the NFL Draft, it seemed like a good time to reset a bit and look around the NFL for the roster situations team-by-team at the RB position. The episode of Fantasy For Real below covers the NFC RB Rooms post-draft.
https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/24-dealing-w-day-3-troy-franklin -- FULL AUDIO Podcast
Show 24 Timeline: Looking into Troy Franklin (4:30) NFC RB Rooms (North - South - East - West) (22:30) Age List Update '22-'24 Prospect Ages (50:25) End (58:00)
//
DISCLAIMER: I use publicly available information about NFL contracts to draw conclusions about their structure. This can be a flawed process, but hopefully these publicly available reported contract figures are close enough to reality that the contract discussions have proper merit.
NFC RB Rooms
For the write-up today, instead of going Division-by-Division like the AUDIO podcast version of Fantasy For Real, Iā€™m going to split teams up by how much addition has been made. There is a bit of subjectivity here, not just in who the team brought in, but in who they already have. For example, a 6th Round Pick going to a relatively open room can be a significant addition. A 6th Round Pick going to a team with Bijan Robinson is significantly less impactful.
NO CHANGE RB Rooms
Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks
As mentioned above, the Falcons did add an intriguing physical talent in Jase McClellan, but given who Bijan Robinson is, Iā€™m considering this a ā€œNo Changeā€ situation. Both Bijan Robinson and the lead RB for the Lions, Jahmyr Gibbs, are under contract through at least 2026 with a team option for the 2027 season (3 + 1). David Montgomery has a reasonable cap hit in 2025, but could save the team most of his cap hit if he were cut. For New Orleans, it seems very unlikely that the Saints will be able to retain Alvin Kamara without a significant reworking of his contract after 2024. This is certainly possible, but at 29 this season and 30 next year, it seems more likely this is Kamaraā€™s final year with the team. That said, Jamaal Williams has a decent chance to be with the Saints for all three years of his contract including 2025 if he stays healthy, and the Saints have Kendre Miller (three years remaining) as well. The Seattle Seahawks have two highly drafted RBs under rookie contracts in Kenneth Walker III (two years remaining) and Zach Charbonnet (three years remaining).
FA CHANGE RB Rooms
Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Commanders
The Dallas Cowboys pretty much deserve to have their own section of this conversation. They have Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Royce Freeman, and Deuce Vaughn (three years remaining). The biggest talking point for the Cowboys might be the RBs around the NFL like Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, or Khalil Herbert from this next team who could all theoretically become available for one reason or another. While many liked the low-cost tandem of Roschon Johnson (three years remaining) and Khalil Herbert (expiring contract), the Bears paid a sizable contract to former Lions & Eagles RB Dā€™Andre Swift in Free Agency this year. Swift will be locked into a sizable investment on the Bears for at least the next two seasons. Swiftā€™s 2026 cap hit is feasible, but most of it can be avoided by cutting Swift, so it is far from guaranteed. Both the Minnesota Vikings and the Washington Commanders brought in older RBs in Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler respectively to one-year contracts. Both teams also have a home-grown 3rd-year RB behind their new veterans in Ty Chandler (two years remaining) and Brian Robinson Jr. (two years remaining). While I wouldnā€™t recommend paying too much for either, it is fair to say those are two of the best situated handcuffs considering the age, injury history, and new locations of the backs in front of them.
DRAFT CHANGE RB Rooms
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams
I profiled the AFC first, but the NFC got all the major shake-ups, including the top two drafted RBs in Jonathon Brooks to Carolina and Trey Benson to Arizona. This piece and the contracts within really highlight some of the value that Brooks and Benson bring to the table: both players have been assessed at a fairly high talent grade and given a four year commitment alongside those assessments. Brooks is recovering from an ACL injury and has a fairly crowded room around him (Rashaad Penny ā€“ Expiring ; Chuba Hubbard ā€“ Expiring ; Miles Sanders ā€“ Likely Cut after 2024), but no individual is likely taking too much work from Brooks if he is healthy given the capital investment. James Conner (expiring contract), when healthy, is a much bigger roadblock for Trey Benson, but it is also important to mention that aside from just the expiring contract, the 29-year-old RB has never been healthy for a full season in his entire NFL Career. Connerā€™s career high is 15 Games Played and he has played in 13 or fewer games in five of the last six seasons.
If Christian McCaffrey (two years remaining ; some cap savings, but unlikely to cut given who McCaffrey is without major injury) was a bit younger, he would be getting the Bijan Robinson treatment and the San Francisco 49ers would be in the top group, but now a 28-year-old RB, itā€™s important to bring up a player like Isaac Guerendo (four years remaining). Guerendo is a bit limited in ways you may not expect for a bigger RB, but as an outside runner similar to Raheem Mostert, there is a lot of upside here. Elijah Mitchell (expiring contract) remains a potentially more likely #2 RB if healthy. How the Los Angeles Rams plan to deploy Kyren Williams (two years remaining) and Blake Corum (four years remaining) is very tricky. On the one hand, there is ample evidence that Sean McVayā€™s instinct is to rely on a single back. On the other hand, what McVay has done has not worked for the Rams nearly as well as it has worked for fantasy managers, and keeping Kyren Williams healthy by rotating drives with a similar player who does not need to leave the field (for the drive) makes a lot of sense on paper. This is nature versus intention in my eyes, as I do think the intention is clearly going to be to use Corum to take drives away from Kyren. Finally, not too big of an addition, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers added the scrappy, small, and oddly physical pass catching back Bucky Irving (four years remaining). The biggest trick will be to figure out if Irving is a thorn for the pass catching of Rachaad White (two years remaining). Whiteā€™s best tool is his pass catching, so if he cedes those plays to Irving, you have to hope that his rushing efficiency finally takes a leap.
FA+DRAFT CHANGE RB Rooms
Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles could arguably be in the FA section just because of how different these investments are. The Eagles added Saquon Barkley on a contract that appears to be locked in for two years with at least some substantial dead money in Year 3. Barkley being who he is, he will definitely be the guy, but behind Barkley or should Barkley get injured, the Eagles have incumbent Kenneth Gainwell (expiring contract) and new rookie Will Shipley (four years remaining). Shipley is not the most flashy, but I think he is a bit underrated in this specific context where he can be a three-down handcuff (should he beat out Gainwell). The team that Barkley departed, the New York Giants, are trying to fix the RB room by committee and/or lower investments, bringing in Devin Singletary with their main investment. Singletary is likely under contract through 2025, though the figure for his 3rd year in 2026 is not too high. Aside from Singletary, the Giants have thrown darts the last two years at Eric Gray (three years remaining) and Tyrone Tracy (four years remaining). Tracy is currently my favorite fantasy draft pick with an ADP of the fourth round of rookie drafts or lower due to his explosive upside and pass catching background, though Tracyā€™s lack of history at RB and advanced prospect age showcase some risks.
Finally, the Green Bay Packers are pretty much the only team in both conferences to truly make significant investments in both areas for the RB position. Josh Jacobs was signed by the Green Bay Packers to a complicated contract that has been discussed quite a bit, though I do think we may have gone a bit too far. While it is true that Jacobs can be cut for a cap ā€œsavingsā€ after just one season, that ā€œsavingsā€ is compared to a sizable cap hit and the dead cap is substantial, meaning the Green Bay Packers would have to pay a considerable amount of dead cap in 2025 to not have Jacobs on the roster, plus they would then need to fill his spot on the 53 with more money. The cap savings Iā€™m seeing is under $2 mil, and so when you subtract a minimum contract figure from that for the 53 man roster spot you need to fill, the amount gets even smaller. It makes it feasible the Packers might cut Jacobs after 2024, but still very unlikely unless he were borderline un-rosterable. That said, Marshawn Lloyd (four years remaining) does enter a situation where he has a chance to maintain a smaller role like he did throughout college while allowing him to display potentially his dynamic playmaking and pass catching ability in an offense that can utilize both effectively. The Packers also still have AJ Dillon (expiring).
//
For podcast listeners, delayed release for Episode 26 because of Mother's Day among other things. I'm done with my first series of 2025 shows which can be found on this sub and by my profile. Iā€™ll be around to answer any questions / comments about Redraft / Dynasty / Futures.
Thanks,
C.J.
submitted by cjfreel to DynastyFF [link] [comments]


2024.05.13 15:39 foreverdownvoted1 So hereā€™s a short Miata story.

I pulled up to the Lake Mart gas station convenience store and parked near the entrance in front of the ice machine. It wasnā€™t a parking spot but I have a small car, a Miata, so I figured no one would mind, plus I would just be in and out real quick - all I needed was a pack of smokes and two white Monster energy drinks. I flung open the door and got out with ease since I had the top down(when the top is up itā€™s like crawling into a coffin which is kinda cozy in its own way but still hard to get in and out of). I was wearing cheap, black Amazon sweatpants and crocs and a very expensive beige long sleeve V cut sweater. It was a mismatch of the highest order but I didnā€™t give a shit. ā€œThat ainā€™t a parking spot buddy!ā€ I hear coming from the Ford F-250 filling up with poor-grade 87 unleaded at the pump, the truck isnā€™t even a manly diesel. I glare at him and yell back: ā€œHowā€™s the ride in that thing? Probably bounces you around a lot on these roads and reminds you of riding your boyfriend.ā€ A very overweight shit kicker type of fella walks around from the side of the F-250. His boots were covered in dried mud along with his Carrhart overalls. It wasnā€™t fresh mud but definitely from the previous weekā€™s worth of laboring somewhere horrible. ā€œWhat did you say to me!?ā€ He bellowed. There was some sort of food stain on the front of his T-shirt, possibly mayonnaise or some other condiment. Strange tho since it was only 7:00AM so he clearly wore the shirt the day or days before. ā€œOh, sorry.ā€ I said to him after seeing his size. ā€œI didnā€™t realize you were so big, you must be more of a doggy style power bottom type.ā€ ā€œWhat the fuck does that mean?ā€ he said to me. ā€œIt means youā€™re too fucking fat to be on top of your boyfriend. He rails you from behind.ā€ ā€œOh thatā€™s it you fuck!ā€ he yelled and started to run at me. Oh shit I thought, I really let my mouth get me into a situation for no real reason. But actually, no fuck this guy, he started it by telling me I canā€™t park in front of the ice machine. Thatā€™s clearly a violation of the Bill of Rights and flagrant treading on me. He was fairly fast for a fat guy but I knew I was faster and had more endurance. I stood there at first near the front of my Miata and he was running full speed and as he closed the distance he stretched his arms out with the intention of grabbing me(to probably try and make out with me). At the last second I strafed to the right behind the safety of the front left panel of my car. Him being inertia laden, was unable to change direction in time to grab me. His arms flailed to his left at me but missed by a wide margin, He contorted his body in trying to grab me in such a way it forced his legs to cross with the next stride and he tripped over his own feet, took two awkward stumbles and ate shit on the asphalt parking lot, landing on his right shoulder before tumbling over himself and into the ice machine. ā€œDude you just ate shit!ā€ I said to him pointing and laughing. ā€œYouā€™re probably used to it though when you eat your boyfriendā€™s ass every night.ā€ ā€œYou fucking goddamnā€¦ā€ He said as he got to one knee. ā€œOh no, donā€™t propose to me, Iā€™m already in a committed relationshipā€¦with your mom.ā€ I replied. He finally got to his feet and despite it being only 50 feet that he ran, he was already wheezing. He reached to his right pocket and pulled out a small pocket knife, maybe 3 inches long only but long enough to do some serious damage, then charged at me again. I ran to the rear of my car and put the car between me and him, he tried to slash at me across the trunk but I easily dodged it as he came up feet short. He started chasing me again and I ran to the front of my car and as he ran up to me again, I ran to the rear of my car like a toddler playing ā€œyou canā€™t catch meā€. I started laughing at this thought and each time he ran a pass at me I said that to him. ā€œYou canā€™t catch me big fella! You canā€™t catch me!ā€ I didnā€™t have to put forth too much effort but I could tell it was taking its toll on him. He had the stubbornness of a retarded mule and refused to give up to save some sense of pride and honor. We played this game for maybe five complete laps around my car before he realized he had no chance of getting to me. He paused for a moment to decide what to do next to save face and not look like such a fat bitch then it donned on him. ā€œYou little fuck.ā€ The sweat was pouring down his forehead. ā€œYou got a spare tire in the trunk of this shitbox rice burning beanermobile?ā€ He said and eyeā€™d up my right front tire and pulled his arm back. There wasnā€™t much I could do so as he began to lunge his arm forward to puncture my tire, I let out the loudest and highest pitch rape scream I could make. It was an ear piercing banshee scream and it must have startled him because he missed the tire and hit the fender causing his sweaty hand to slip from the grip and violently slide down the grip and onto the blade of his knife cutting a large gash in his fingers and palm. ā€œFUCKKKKK!ā€ he screamed, still clutching the knife. The Indian clerk that owned and operated the store must have been alerted by my banshee scream and came rushing out the door. ā€œWhat going on here!?ā€ he yelled, looking concerned and confused. He saw I was standing there and recognized me immediately. I had to be one of the biggest spenders at the store, buying at least a pack of smokes a day and two energy drinks like clockwork and very often getting food for lunch and always paid cash which they loved. They liked me and knew me as well as youā€™d know a frequent customer. He saw the fat fella was holding a knife but also bleeding. ā€œHe chased me and tried to slash my tire.ā€ I said and the clerk nodded and believed me. ā€œThatā€™s not a parking spot!ā€ the big fella said. ā€œHe park there every day, never cause any problem. You buddy, you not welcome here. Go now, leave or I call the police!ā€ The big fella glared at me holding his bleeding palm with his other hand now to apply pressure. I didnā€™t say a word, I just grinned at the big fella and he turned around and went back to his truck, got in and drove off, peeling out with one wheel as he left. I went inside and the clerk apologized to me for the behavior of the big fella even though it wasnā€™t his fault obviously. I assured him it wasnā€™t an issue and got my normal supplies and left. I got in my car and hit the vape(I wonā€™t smoke in the car), started the engine and put on some Tool. My adrenaline was still high so I took a deep breath, hit the vape again, and started the engine then pulled out of my personal parking spot. I pulled out onto the road, looking both ways first but not paying attention to the vehicle far down the road and started my short drive home. It was one complete Tool song for the round trip if I drove like a sane person and I causally accelerated. I hadnā€™t made it a mile before I noticed a F-250 in my rear view mirror growing in size rapidly. It was the big fella and he was going to run me down in a way that wouldnā€™t exhaust or embarrass him. ā€œOh fuckā€ I said and took another vape hit then downshifted into 3rd gear and put the pedal to the floor. The Miataā€™s engine woke from its slumber and quickly ran the RPMā€™s up to 6000, putting me back in my seat the entire time. I shifted into 4th and floored it again. The road was awful and full of potholes but the sporty nimbleness of the Miata made avoiding the major potholes and bumps a fun exercise in technical driving. The big fella had a huge run up on me however and was still closing the distance on me even though I was speeding along at close to 90 miles per hour. Either he was an idiot or didnā€™t know the roads or likely both but as I glanced in the rearview mirror I could see the truck take hit after hit from the potholes. It lurched and bounced each time but the venerable American truck took each hit in stride and held its ground with me. I was doing 105 MPH now on a shitty backcountry road in a 45MPH zone and the F-250ā€™s speed limiter likely kicked in at that speed so I maintained 105 as we approached the curves. I was nervous because I had only one option and that was to navigate a downhill S-turn meant for 35MPH at 105MPH while avoiding potholes that would tear off one of my tires. If I slowed down any, this maniac behind me could plow into me or give me the Pitt Maneuver and spin me out which would inevitably lead to a rollover where I definitely would die. ā€œFuck itā€ I said, grabbed another gear and started pulling away from the F-250. There was another option that just came to me Ā¼ mile from the S-turn and immediately opted for it. Despite the pain of sacrificing it, I lobbed a full 16oz can of white Monster out of the top of my car like a hand grenade. It crashed into the truckā€™s grill and penetrated through the grill and into the radiator like an armor piercing anti-tank cannon shell. A plume of steam erupted from the truck and I let off the throttle only to see him start gaining ground. I put it to the floor again and clenched my asshole as I was seconds away from barreling down upon the S-turn. I could see far enough ahead that there was no oncoming traffic so I steered as far left as I could to get the best angle entering the turn. The carā€™s lane detection warning system beeped at me and I told it to fuck off, I was racing for my life here. I tracked into the turn, apexed in the corner and tracked back out into the next turn. I felt myself get lighter when I entered the turn because it was downhill but the Miata stayed true and glued to the road like a Formula 1 car. In the first part of the S-turn, I had to keep the center line in the center of my car because of the massive canyons in the asphalt on the right tire track that Penn Dot hadnā€™t addressed in several years. There were more potholes but they were minor and at this speed the car glided over them. I had made it halfway through the S-turn and now steered left again and apexed perfectly in the outward curve and accelerated out of it. The next stretch had mild curves that I wasnā€™t worried about and I got back in my proper lane, now about to check my mirror to see what the big fellaā€™s fate was. I heard the tires squeal as he tried to slow down to make the first curve of the S-turn. He knew nothing of racing despite having decals on his back window of some local hayseed race car driver. When he braked in the middle of the turn, all the weight shifted forward and he lost all rear grip. Combining that with trying to steer right, caused the rear end of the truck to slide out from behind him and he spun 90 degrees. The left front tire caught the canyon pothole and sent the truck into a barrel roll down the hill. I watched it all in my mirror and I slammed on my breaks. The truck barrel rolled at least a half dozen times before hitting the left side guard rail and bounced into the middle of the road. Steam was billowing from the front of the truck and I could see all the airbags had deployed. I pulled the e-brake, did a half turn to slow down and stop, smoke seethed from my tires and when the car came to a halt in the middle of the road, I put on my 4-ways. I then heard a woman yell to me from the nearby house. ā€œOh my god!ā€ She yelled. ā€œAre you okay!ā€ She saw the smoke and must have thought there was a fire or something coming from my car. ā€œYeah Iā€™m fine, but that fella probably isnā€™tā€ I said motioning to the heap of metal that used to be a F-250. ā€œI saw the whole thing! I was getting my mail when I heard an engine revvingā€, the woman said, ā€œWhy were you going so fast!? Racing?ā€ She was accusatory and slightly distressed or even angry. I turned my head away from the wreck and looked at her. She was in her late 20s, blonde hair, large and possibly fake breasts, blue eyes and wearing the cutest and most sensual peach colored sundress. If she had makeup on it was minor at most and her face held the natural beauty of an entire Miss Universe contest. ā€œI was racing for my life. The guy is a lunatic, he tried to stab me at the gas station then started chasing me. I knew he couldnā€™t handle that turn but I knew my car could. Looks like I was right.ā€ I said to her. She looked at me seemingly satisfied with my response but asked, ā€œWhy did he try to stab you?ā€ ā€œBecause I called him gay.ā€ She laughed and smiled thinking I was joking and was about to say something else when we both heard the big fella yell for help. ā€œWe prob should check on himā€ I said and took a deep hit from my vape exhaling more white vapor than was coming from the wrecked truck. A car pulled up and the driver asked if anyone called 911, I said no and he started dialing. ā€œIā€™m Michelleā€, she said and extended her left hand to me to help me out of the car. She presented her left hand palm down so I could clearly see that she didnā€™t have a wedding ring. I took her hand and got out of the car then released her hand. It was just a short moment but it lasted for decades. I felt an electricity in her touch, the softness of her skin but the strength and firmness of an unyielding woman who was not unsure of herself. She was breeding stock and with each step she took, her breasts bounced slightly and jiggled revealing that they were indeed real and without a doubt perfect. ā€œIā€™ve never seen anyone drive that fast through that turn before.ā€ she continued. Thereā€™s at least a dozen wrecks here a year from people doing the speed limit and you were going how fast?ā€ ā€œ105ā€ I replied. ā€œMaybe 110 when I finally hit the brakes.ā€ ā€œYouā€™re insane.ā€ She said and smiled, then adjusted her sundress, undoing one of her buttons revealing a little bit more cleavage. Her nipples were perky and nearly penetrated the fabric. ā€œIts hot this morningā€¦What kind of car is that? It looks German.ā€ ā€œItā€™s a Miata. Its basically a super car. It has 180hp but donā€™t let that fool you, the car only weighs a little more than 2200 pounds. Okay, so you've got to understand why the Mazda Miata is such a big dealā€”it's not just a car; it's a whole vibe! Picture this: It's super lightweight, right? That makes it incredibly fun to drive; itā€™s like it's practically gliding along the road. And it's got this perfectly balanced rear-wheel drive, so it handles like a dream, especially on curves. Seriously, it's like dancing... but with a car!ā€ I paused for a few moments to catch my breath then added ā€œPlus, itā€™s affordable, which is crazy considering how sporty it is. Itā€™s like the everymanā€™s sports car. You can actually own a roadster without breaking the bank!ā€ ā€œOh well, thatā€™s nice I guess.ā€ She said and continued, ā€œI have to go now actually, I need toā€¦like do someā€¦choresā€¦I mean get ready for work. Bye.ā€ She buttoned up her sundress then ran off back to her driveway. ā€œAre you a fucking idiot?ā€ I heard the big fella yell. I watched as Michelle sprinted up her driveway, not looking back once even though sirens were blaring and the firetrucks and ambulances had arrived. ā€œYou had her melting in your hand and you sperged out like a retard about your car? What the hell is wrong with you? I donā€™t even want to kick your ass anymore, that was the worst thing Iā€™ve ever seen.ā€
submitted by foreverdownvoted1 to Miata [link] [comments]


2024.05.13 10:59 JihadWatcher Freedom of thought, Freewill and Career choices

myquals: IIT Roorkee 2nd year BTech Mechanical Student , entering 3rd year
So for a long time, I have been a rebellious guy who rejects societal standards, however ever since I joined IIT it has become depressive each semester, I expected people to be smart enough to have some sort of interest towards specific technologies and ideas, but all I got to see was people getting their cp rating up from 1st semester only or studying 24/7 for increasing their cgpa, and then there are always a few assholes who cheat in semester exams using mobile devices ( it was the most in our year ) , the same assholes dive in drugs like they are having a regular meal.
Everyone just studies for grades, interns or placements, in fact there is now a coaching made by our alums that is opening to cater to teaching students how to crack interviews , I don't understand where the passion for software and tech is gone? Why are we studying like robots? Why are we crying after grades and ratings? People having fake work experience and projects and stuff , what the obsession with marketing ? Whats the obsession with numbers?
I have been a straight A student for a long time and someone who has been wanting to have my own freewill for a long time since I cleared jee advanced ,however living in a environment like this , it made me question my own decisions . I understand the importance of having to have a decent grade point average and having a good rating and all but when everyone is extremely obsessive over them and judges you based on that only , it creates a environment imitating a pressure cooker . I don't know about others but for me , I was very passionate for technology , specially low level programming and Machine learning , i came in 1st year and found out everyone is doing web dev like that's the only job market in the whole f**kng world , i wanted to start with machine learning , did that , got into a club , now my cgpa was good in 1st sem ( 8.714) but as i moved to next semesters , my cgpa dropped because of reasons like my own mental health , lack of like minded friends and cheating freaks. However whatever might be the case , time flew by very quickly and so i tried picking up in 4th semester , got something around 7.9 cgpa with a sgpa of 8.6. I tried my best to get grades and since intern season is coming the tension in people is evident everyone is doing the same stuff and then, i kind of realised the following words :
" Don't waste the rest of your time here worrying about other people -- unless it affects the common good . It will keep you from doing anything useful . You'll be too preoccupied with what so and so is doing , and why , and what they're saying and what they're thinking and what they're up to and all the other things that throw you off and keep you from focusing on your own mind."
More of it here
I have been wasting my potential for so long and i don't even know how to unlock it , maybe i do and that way is bravery , am i brave enough to stand with my words and do what everyone is not doing . On one hand i have security which ill get because of conventional path of intern and placement but on the other hand i have to trust myself to find interns and placements and find like minded connections which are much better in pay and give better growth work.
Financially i come from a upper middle class , will try to go to Europe for further studies after 2YOE . Its been a huge dilemma for me for a long time , as i feel that i am being trapped in an invisible cage with lots of eyes on me , any advice from fellow engineers and people in the industry ?
submitted by JihadWatcher to Indian_Academia [link] [comments]


2024.05.13 09:54 toyota4age Quick rant about my prof

Ok for context Im a 3rd year college student in a health allied course. Medyo pangit pamamahala ng school namin. šŸ”°
Basically sa final grading period namin, 5 meetings tong subject niya. Bale 5 meetings as in from end of midterms to final exam. Si prof ay naghahandle ng major subjects namin.
So eto na nga, tong si laroshie prof hindi pumasok for 4 meetings kasi nagbabakasyon. We have 1 meeting a week. Nakapag Boracay, Elyu, tapos nakapag Zambales pa oh diba saya!
Yung last meeting namin, absent din siya. So nagpa make up class siya this past Saturday. We have only had 1 quiz so far, so majority of our grades this Final period will mostly rely on our final examination.
He taught an entire syllabus in a day. As in pahapyaw, no in depth discussion, lecture kami from 8am to 3pm. Para masabi lang na nagturo siguro siya. Sige ok lang, tanggap ko naman. College student kasi eh dapat ready kami.
Ang hindi ko tanggap is na-move yung exam schedule namin. Last Saturday, they released a schedule na sa Wednesday pa dapat ang exam. Tapos ngayon ngayon lang, nag release ng revised schedule saying na tomorrow, Tuesday na ang final exam namin. This is on top of like 8 more majors and 2 minors.
Wala lang, share ko lang. Tanggap ko naman na wala kaming choice. Kailangan ko lang mag reklamo onti kasi coping mechanism ko HAHAHA. Eh judger iba kong ka-block sipsip sa mga prof nagsusumbong tsaka snitch kaya dito ako sa reddit nagyyap. HAHAHA.
Ah more chismis din kasi wala lang. Ito din si laroshie prof may favorites siya per batch. As in sumasama siya sa mga inuman nila, na nakikiclose talaga. Tapos kahit bagsakin yung iba sa kanila sa quizzes, miraculously pumapasa pag dating sa final published grades. Walang singko. Hindi ba dapat bawal yung ganun na relationship ng prof and student? Dito lang sa school ko ako nakakita ng ganun. My friends in other schools also found it quite peculiar na ganun ugali niya.
Ayun lang, just really needed to get it off my chest before going back to studying. HAHAHA hay.
submitted by toyota4age to OffMyChestPH [link] [comments]


2024.05.13 02:52 PoipoleChan I resent my father for leaving us after cheating on my mom

I apologize for the text wall, I have a learning disability but I will try to keep things understandable for you guys to read. I just need to get these feelings that Iā€™ve withheld for years out without looking like a bad guy.
For context, I (23 M) have a bit of a strained relationship with my father (I donā€™t know even know how old he is, but Iā€™m assuming heā€™s around 55 years old. Thatā€™s how strained me and him are) he wasnā€™t abusive or anything, but he walked out on me and my sister who Iā€™ll call Mocha (29 F) when me and her were small children. My dad was cheating on my mom before he walked out on us to play happy family with another woman and have another son. The last time I saw my dad before reconnecting temporarily around 2014 was back around 2007 I think, I was very little and donā€™t really know what year it took place, but I do remember what happened that fateful day when I last saw my dad. My mom took me and my sister to go visit him in his workplace that was a restaurant that doesnā€™t exist anymore. The moment we entered the restaurant my dad who was behind the counter had seen us and without hesitation said "No, no, no" while making hand gestures letting us know that we werenā€™t welcomed and kicked us all out of the restaurant. I remember his hand pushing me, Mocha, and my mom out of the restaurant without any hesitation when he did that. I remember all the excitement and happiness just faded when he kicked us out, the last thing I remember was my mom and dad arguing outside and me and Mocha crying our eyes out and that was pretty much the last time we had seen him for years. How can he kick out his own two children who werenā€™t even 10 years old?! My sister Mocha took it very hard as she grew older. There were times my mom couldnā€™t hold down a job and needed to wait in line at the food pantry multiple times while my dad was working to support his new wife and son. My uncle who is dadā€™s brother was more of a father than my dad ever was, my uncle confirmed it himself that he and my dad donā€™t even talk at all since then. My uncle and his wife were there for me, Mocha, and my mom when my dad wasnā€™t in the picture. My dad reconnected with me and Mocha around 2014 before moving to Chicago to be with his new wife and his new son/my stepbrother. I donā€™t know what happened, or why the new wife moved to Chicago without my dad, but I know they are still together to this very day. I stupidly forgave my father when I was around 15 because I missed him so much, but after we lost contact shortly after he moved to Chicago without my dad but I know they are still together to this very day. I stupidly forgave my father when I was around 15 because I missed him so much, but after we lost contact shortly after he moved to Chicago I grew up to hate him as I got older because of how mom struggled with paying rent on time and I was still underage at the time to do anything about it. Just recently my dadā€™s new wife sent my sister a package and when I saw the address the package came from the new wife who had my dadā€™s last name. I donā€™t know why, but I felt angry inside that she had my dadā€™s last name, thatā€™s also my last name as well. There were times me and Mocha needed our dad, and he was never there when his two children grew as adults when they turned 18, never showed up to high school graduations, didnā€™t wish them a happy 18th birthday, and was never there when my niece and nephew were born. My uncle was there when my dad failure of a father didnā€™t show up to any of those once in a lifetime opportunity. I donā€™t know why, but I always felt that my father walking out on us was the reason as to why I, up to the second grade, was afraid of my mom leaving because of how my father left. I always wondered how our lives could have been different if he didnā€™t leave and break his wedding vows. My mom who is currently 65 is a hard worker who never gives up. I feel bad that my dad abandoned her when she needed help, not just her, but when his two kids needed him the most. Even though my uncle has a family, he helped me, Mocha, and my mom when my dad didnā€™t even bother to try and reach out to us again after my dad moved to Chicago. What do you guys think? Is it normal to still harbor resentment towards the parent who walked out on the other to be with someone else, and that parent breaking their wedding vows?
submitted by PoipoleChan to KidsofCheatingParents [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 22:25 PoipoleChan I resent my father for leaving us after cheating on my mom

I apologize for the text wall, I have a learning disability but I will try to keep things understandable for you guys to read. I just need to get these feelings that Iā€™ve withheld for years out without looking like a bad guy.
For context, I (23 M) have a bit of a strained relationship with my father (I donā€™t know even know how old he is, but Iā€™m assuming heā€™s around 55 years old. Thatā€™s how strained me and him are) he wasnā€™t abusive or anything, but he walked out on me and my sister who Iā€™ll call Mocha (29 F) when me and her were small children. My dad was cheating on my mom before he walked out on us to play happy family with another woman and have another son. The last time I saw my dad before reconnecting temporarily around 2014 was back around 2007 I think, I was very little and donā€™t really know what year it took place, but I do remember what happened that fateful day when I last saw my dad. My mom took me and my sister to go visit him in his workplace that was a restaurant that doesnā€™t exist anymore. The moment we entered the restaurant my dad who was behind the counter had seen us and without hesitation said "No, no, no" while making hand gestures letting us know that we werenā€™t welcomed and kicked us all out of the restaurant. I remember his hand pushing me, Mocha, and my mom out of the restaurant without any hesitation when he did that. I remember all the excitement and happiness just faded when he kicked us out, the last thing I remember was my mom and dad arguing outside and me and Mocha crying our eyes out and that was pretty much the last time we had seen him for years. How can he kick out his own two children who werenā€™t even 10 years old?! My sister Mocha took it very hard as she grew older. There were times my mom couldnā€™t hold down a job and needed to wait in line at the food pantry multiple times while my dad was working to support his new wife and son. My uncle who is dadā€™s brother was more of a father than my dad ever was, my uncle confirmed it himself that he and my dad donā€™t even talk at all since then. My uncle and his wife were there for me, Mocha, and my mom when my dad wasnā€™t in the picture. My dad reconnected with me and Mocha around 2014 before moving to Chicago to be with his new wife and his new son/my stepbrother. I donā€™t know what happened, or why the new wife moved to Chicago without my dad, but I know they are still together to this very day. I stupidly forgave my father when I was around 15 because I missed him so much, but after we lost contact shortly after he moved to Chicago without my dad but I know they are still together to this very day. I stupidly forgave my father when I was around 15 because I missed him so much, but after we lost contact shortly after he moved to Chicago I grew up to hate him as I got older because of how mom struggled with paying rent on time and I was still underage at the time to do anything about it. Just recently my dadā€™s new wife sent my sister a package and when I saw the address the package came from the new wife who had my dadā€™s last name. I donā€™t know why, but I felt angry inside that she had my dadā€™s last name, thatā€™s also my last name as well. There were times me and Mocha needed our dad, and he was never there when his two children grew as adults when they turned 18, never showed up to high school graduations, didnā€™t wish them a happy 18th birthday, and was never there when my niece and nephew were born. My uncle was there when my dad failure of a father didnā€™t show up to any of those once in a lifetime opportunity. I donā€™t know why, but I always felt that my father walking out on us was the reason as to why I, up to the second grade, was afraid of my mom leaving because of how my father left. I always wondered how our lives could have been different if he didnā€™t leave and break his wedding vows. My mom who is currently 65 is a hard worker who never gives up. I feel bad that my dad abandoned her when she needed help, not just her, but when his two kids needed him the most. Even though my uncle has a family, he helped me, Mocha, and my mom when my dad didnā€™t even bother to try and reach out to us again after my dad moved to Chicago. What do you guys think? Is it normal to still harbor resentment towards the parent who walked out on the other to be with someone else, and that parent breaking their wedding vows?
submitted by PoipoleChan to Infidelity [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 22:23 PoipoleChan I resent my father for leaving us.

I apologize for the text wall, I have a learning disability but I will try to keep things understandable for you guys to read. I just need to get these feelings that Iā€™ve withheld for years out without looking like a bad guy.
For context, I (23 M) have a bit of a strained relationship with my father (I donā€™t know even know how old he is, but Iā€™m assuming heā€™s around 55 years old. Thatā€™s how strained me and him are) he wasnā€™t abusive or anything, but he walked out on me and my sister who Iā€™ll call Mocha (29 F) when me and her were small children. My dad was cheating on my mom before he walked out on us to play happy family with another woman and have another son. The last time I saw my dad before reconnecting temporarily around 2014 was back around 2007 I think, I was very little and donā€™t really know what year it took place, but I do remember what happened that fateful day when I last saw my dad. My mom took me and my sister to go visit him in his workplace that was a restaurant that doesnā€™t exist anymore. The moment we entered the restaurant my dad who was behind the counter had seen us and without hesitation said "No, no, no" while making hand gestures letting us know that we werenā€™t welcomed and kicked us all out of the restaurant. I remember his hand pushing me, Mocha, and my mom out of the restaurant without any hesitation when he did that. I remember all the excitement and happiness just faded when he kicked us out, the last thing I remember was my mom and dad arguing outside and me and Mocha crying our eyes out and that was pretty much the last time we had seen him for years. How can he kick out his own two children who werenā€™t even 10 years old?! My sister Mocha took it very hard as she grew older. There were times my mom couldnā€™t hold down a job and needed to wait in line at the food pantry multiple times while my dad was working to support his new wife and son. My uncle who is dadā€™s brother was more of a father than my dad ever was, my uncle confirmed it himself that he and my dad donā€™t even talk at all since then. My uncle and his wife were there for me, Mocha, and my mom when my dad wasnā€™t in the picture. My dad reconnected with me and Mocha around 2014 before moving to Chicago to be with his new wife and his new son/my stepbrother. I donā€™t know what happened, or why the new wife moved to Chicago without my dad, but I know they are still together to this very day. I stupidly forgave my father when I was around 15 because I missed him so much, but after we lost contact shortly after he moved to Chicago without my dad but I know they are still together to this very day. I stupidly forgave my father when I was around 15 because I missed him so much, but after we lost contact shortly after he moved to Chicago I grew up to hate him as I got older because of how mom struggled with paying rent on time and I was still underage at the time to do anything about it. Just recently my dadā€™s new wife sent my sister a package and when I saw the address the package came from the new wife who had my dadā€™s last name. I donā€™t know why, but I felt angry inside that she had my dadā€™s last name, thatā€™s also my last name as well. There were times me and Mocha needed our dad, and he was never there when his two children grew as adults when they turned 18, never showed up to high school graduations, didnā€™t wish them a happy 18th birthday, and was never there when my niece and nephew were born. My uncle was there when my dad failure of a father didnā€™t show up to any of those once in a lifetime opportunity. I donā€™t know why, but I always felt that my father walking out on us was the reason as to why I, up to the second grade, was afraid of my mom leaving because of how my father left. I always wondered how our lives could have been different if he didnā€™t leave and break his wedding vows. My mom who is currently 65 is a hard worker who never gives up. I feel bad that my dad abandoned her when she needed help, not just her, but when his two kids needed him the most. Even though my uncle has a family, he helped me, Mocha, and my mom when my dad didnā€™t even bother to try and reach out to us again after my dad moved to Chicago. What do you guys think? Is it normal to still harbor resentment towards the parent who walked out on the other to be with someone else, and that parent breaking their wedding vows?
submitted by PoipoleChan to TrueOffMyChest [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 19:10 LowTierStudent [Farewell to my LowTier Persona] AMA MidTier Mechanical Engineering student (Expoly ME, no specialisation)

Hey guys, as you probably or not know I am a 2024 graduating mechanical Engineering student who has been lurking in this subreddit for some time. My NUS journey has finally ended after officially closing my FYP for good. To commemorate this occasion, I like to share my farewell speech script since I always wanted to give one in real life but didnā€™t get the chance because I not 2024 valedictorian. At the same time I will make it an AMA post too. So just ask any question about ME u like. Can be about easy elective modules which I got A, optimum academic workload, FYP matters, Internship, etc.
It is my pleasure to finally graduate from NUS. Looking back my 4 years of University life really pass by in a flash. While it has been undramatic and lonely where I made 0 close friends, eat mostly alone except for a few rare occasions and made no GFšŸ„² like not even a single relationship. However ultimately I am glad I went through it. Saying I learnt a lot from NUS ME will be lying but at least I was exposed to a ton of engineering concepts which challenged me mathematically to a point I almost throw the towel and drop out. In a sense University education has built my resilience and drive towards learning sth that I donā€™t know which I believe is important in the context of life long learning. Since technology is constantly evolving and as engineers we need to ensure we donā€™t get left behind.šŸ¤–
Lastly atb for 3 June grade release, grades is ultimately just a variable in that job hunting equation. So even if u get bad grades it ainā€™t the end of the world. Can always compensate with other factors (E.g CCA, internship experience, competitions).
After Graduation Plans:
Will be flying back to my hometown later to chill before I start work. Speaking of work recently I have received a job offer from the public sector (defense is all I will disclose so no more DM spamming ah). Shocked they gave me an offer but it is a 2 year contract with full time conversion depending on performance so not exactly surprising. Guess I have to work hard for that full time conversion opportunity to truly unleash that almighty iron rice bowl. Gov job always been my goal since NUS matriculation so I guess I have achieved my purpose of coming here. Students who hit their goals arenā€™t real LowTierStudents so I will relinquish this title. Hence this will be my final post as LowTierStudent aka LTS on Reddit.šŸ«”
Lemme know if u got any questions about ME major via this post or DM.
See ya! šŸ˜ŠšŸ‘‹šŸ‘‹ NUS, nus and LowTierStudent
PS: CS1010E you were a pain in the ass but ultimately I am glad I had to take up u twice. Although I lost a $349 mechanical keyboardā€¦..nvm f*** this shit ass mod.
EDIT: Some think I am a foreignePR but I am a SG citizen. Just my parents were ex-china citizens and for some reason I pop out there so I consider china as my actual hometown. Majority of my relatives are there too. Reddit is blocked there so I will be going dark for quite some time. Will reply to the queries related comments and DMs when I get back.šŸ™‚ā€ā†•ļø
submitted by LowTierStudent to nus [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 18:58 Witchy-toes-669 3rd ā€œmissedā€dose, weight is okay

43/f sw: 267cw:252 gw: 180ish
So I did a month of .25and lost 8 pounds, doc put in for a higher dose, insurance is held up, but Iā€™ll find out Tuesday if they approve it . Over the course of the first two weeks off I gained 2lbs, today is the 3rd week, as Iā€™m ā€œstartingā€ on Saturdays. And Iā€™m back down to 252.4. I normally( in larger context)donā€™t even consider a pound or two as an impact but Iā€™m just feeling hopeful I can do really do this long term , Iā€™m hungry,all the damn time but thatā€™s okay, I can ignore it now and also a cup of hot tea really gives me hours of a full/comfort feeling. Iā€™m 43 and disabled but for fucks sake, Iā€™m gonna do thisšŸ’ŖšŸ’ŖšŸ’ŖšŸ’ŖšŸ«¶
submitted by Witchy-toes-669 to WegovyWeightLoss [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 17:10 BaconIsLife707 Power Rankings - Best Players and Performances of MCC Season 4 Kick Off

Power Rankings - Best Players and Performances of MCC Season 4 Kick Off
Below are some alternate ways to rank players' performances in the MCC S4KO games which you may find interesting to see. We also use these rankings for our overall power rankings and they hope to limit the influence of a strongeweaker team on an individual's score/ranking as well as accounting for the fact that some games are more influential than others on the individual leaderboard.
There's a few changes for this event with it being a new season. Railroad Rush obviously needs scoring, and mostly just uses the Grid Runners/Build Mart formula of seeing how much a player brought their teammates averages up, with adjustments for how much gold they collected in the event. Rocket Spleef Rush kills are now weighted more, Bingo now gives a bonus just for completing an item no matter when it was completed to account for the importance of lines, and Sky Battle unfortunately no longer uses damage scoring because the stats just don't exist anymore.
Huge shout out for , , jarvig0231 (discord), and for working with me in compiling all the power ranking stats for MCC Party.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aPTl9biMOVKqhbEcdFEtK9N_93KmiaMIpjpB2oaWQXM/edit#gid=1667241475
  • full spreadsheet here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IKSEccsTrqGqqGWkJPxqk2JTw651DFAxvBDv8Be2iCI/edit#gid=897443852
  • predictoteambuilder here

Sky Battle

By using factors of a player's adjusted kills, their teammates' kills, their teammates' average kills in the past 5 MCCs, their average survival and their teammates' average survival to determine a value to correlate to a player's Sky Battle skill for the MCC
  1. Smallishbeans - (12/22 kills, 26.7/83.0 survival) - 0.85
  2. Kratzy - (10/18 kills, 32.3/112.3 survival) - 0.84
  3. Antfrost - (8/12 kills, 34.7/117.0 survival) - 0.84
  4. fruitberries - (9/16 kills, 38.3/130.3 survival) - 0.84
  5. FireBreathMan - (9/22 kills, 24.3/83.0 survival) - 0.83
  6. Shadoune666 - (8/18 kills, 29.3/82.0 survival) - 0.83
  7. SolidarityGaming - (7/18 kills, 21.0/82.0 survival) - 0.82
  8. Feinberg - (5/9 kills, 21.7/64.3 survival) - 0.81
  9. Hannahxxrose - (6/18 kills, 29.0/112.3 survival) - 0.81
  10. jojosolos - (4/7 kills, 21.3/81.3 survival) - 0.79

Rocket Spleef Rush

By the average number of players outplaced plus 8x the average number of kills per round.
  1. FireBreathMan - 209
  2. Shadoune666 - 176
  3. Smajor1995 - 174
  4. Fruitberries - 166
  5. Feinberg - 161
  6. HBomb94 - 158
  7. Antfrost - 145
  8. Kratzy - 144.5
  9. Jojosolos - 144.3
  10. AntVenom - 139

Battle Box

By number of kills multiplied by percentage kill contribution for their team, where each round win is considered 1/3 of a kill
  1. Feinberg (19/33 kills, 8 round wins) - 13.16
  2. Seapeekay (16/28 kills, 6 round wins) - 10.80
  3. PeteZahHutt (13/18 kills, 4 round wins) - 10.63pete
  4. Kratzy (16/30 kills, 4 round wins) - 9.59
  5. Antfrost (10/13 kills, 4 round wins) - 8.96
  6. Shadoune666 (12/24 kills, 6 round wins) - 7.54
  7. Fruitberries (11/22 kills, 6 round wins) - 7.04
  8. FireBreathMan (11/25 kills, 5 round wins) - 6.02
  9. Smallishbeans (10/25 kills, 5 round wins) - 5.10
  10. OrionSound (10/33 kills, 8 round wins) - 4.50

TGTTOSAWAF

By average placement across the 6 rounds
  1. PeteZahHutt - 5.33
  2. Feinberg - 7.12
  3. Shadoune666 - 7.33
  4. FireBreathMan - 8
  5. Kratzy - 8.83
  6. Hannahxxrose - 10.5
  7. Jojosolos - 11.83
  8. Antfrost - 12.67
  9. DarkEyebrows - 13.12
  10. SmallishBeans - 15

Railroad Rush

A player's score is obtained by the distance their minecart travelled, adjusted for how much gold they mined. By comparing the difference of a player's teammates' scores across the last 5 events to their score this event to see the impact they had on their teams performance.
  1. Feinberg - 354
  2. Antfrost - 319
  3. KaraCorvus - 301
  4. OrionSound - 294
  5. Jojosolos - 288
  6. SmallAnt - 286
  7. PeteZahHutt - 280
  8. ImpulseSV - 270.3
  9. HBomb94 - 269.8
  10. AntVenom - 268

Bingo But Fast

By the amount of coins the player earned with the challenges they completed, with a boost if their team performed better
  1. PeteZahHutt - 357
  2. Feinberg - 269
  3. fWhip - 267
  4. Iskall85 - 245
  5. FireBreathMan - 237
  6. HBomb94 - 234
  7. KaraCorvus - 233
  8. FalseSymmetry - 223
  9. CaptainSparklez - 206
  10. Smajor1995 - 200

Hole In The Wall

By average individual placement across the three rounds, where a player's placement for a round is the average placement that failed the wall they failed
  1. Antfrost - 3.67
  2. Feinberg - 5.33
  3. HBomb94 - 7.67
  4. Fruitberries - 8
  5. PeteZahHutt - 8
  6. FireBreathMan - 9
  7. Kratzy - 10.33
  8. SmallishBeans - 11.5
  9. Smajor1995 - 11.5
  10. Seapeekay - 11.83

Sands of Time

By average coins earned per minute (including 80% of coins lost to deaths/trapped in and including only 20% of vaults collected), with sand keepers getting a 25% boost in score to emulate comparable scores to the runners. Scores are also adjusted so teams that stay in longer have their scores boosted
  1. Antfrost - 41.11
  2. Fruitberries - 38.96
  3. SmallAnt - 38.42
  4. FireBreathMan - 34.21
  5. Feinberg - 33.96
  6. CaptainSparklez - 29.87
  7. PeteZahHutt - 27.53
  8. Smajor1995 - 27.04
  9. Shadoune666 - 26.95
  10. Kratzy - 26.39

Top 20 MCC S4KO Player Performances (Z-Score Impact Rankings)

These rankings are calculated by a player's average z-score across every game which values if a player was extremely dominant in a game or not, like FireBreathMan in Rocket Spleef Rush for example getting the highest impact z-score of 2.14. (in brackets is the variation from their actual placement)
  1. Feinberg - 2.01 (+1)
  2. FireBreathMan - 1.78 (-1)
  3. Antfrost - 1.75 (=)
  4. PeteZahHutt - 1.70 (+1)
  5. Fruitberries - 1.23 (+1)
  6. SmallishBeans - 1.14 (+1)
  7. Shadoune666 - 1.07 (-3)
  8. Kratzy - 0.96 (=)
  9. Jojosolos - 0.89 (+1)
  10. HBomb94 - 0.86 (+1)
  11. Seapeekay - 0.73 (-2)
  12. Smajor1995 - 0.68 (=)
  13. Hannahxxrose - 0.30 (+10)
  14. KaraCorvus - 0.29 (+3)
  15. SmallAnt - 0.28 (+5)
  16. OrionSound - 0.27 (-3)
  17. FalseSymmetry - 0.11 (-2)
  18. CaptainSparklez - 0.10 (=)
  19. OwengeJuice - 0.06 (=)
  20. AntVenom - 0.02 (-6)

Best Game Performances of MCCS4KO

  1. FireBreathMan Rocket Spleef Rush - 2.14
  2. PeteZahHutt Bingo But Fast - 2.09
  3. Antfrost Sands of Time - 1.95
  4. Feinberg Railroad Rush - 1.89
  5. Feinberg Battle Box - 1.87
  6. Fruitberries Sands of Time - 1.80
  7. SmallAnt Sands of Time - 1.77
  8. SmallishBeans Sky Battle - 1.76
  9. PeteZahHutt TGTTOSAWAF - 1.74
  10. Antfrost Hole In The Wall - 1.70
  11. Seapeekay Battle Box - 1.69
  12. PeteZahHutt Battle Box - 1.68
  13. Kratzy Sky Battle - 1.66
  14. Feinberg TGTTOSAWAF - 1.63
  15. Shadoune666 TGTTOSAWAF - 1.61
  16. Krazty Battle Box - 1.59
  17. Antfrost Sky Battle - 1.55
  18. Fruitberries Sky Battle - 1.54
  19. FireBreathMan TGTTOSAWAF - 1.53
  20. Shadoune666 Rocket Spleef Rush - 1.53

Overall MCCS4KO Power Rankings Spreadsheet

https://preview.redd.it/2j70bonac00d1.png?width=1046&format=png&auto=webp&s=076e7edb1375392bf634f0fdf7c0083f41ab4780

Personal Bests

  • MythicalSausage improved 1.05 z-score and 10 places out of his 3 MCCs
  • Etho improved by 0.69 z-score and 6 places out of his 2 MCCs
  • Guqqie improved 0.47 z-score and 6 places out of her 4 MCCs
  • DarkEyebrows improved 0.47 z-score and 5 places out of her 4 MCCs
  • OrionSound improved 0.05 z-score and 2 places out of his 19 MCCs
  • KaraCorvus improved 1 place out of her 30 MCCs
  • SmallishBeans improved 1 place out of his 26 MCCs

Player Shout Outs

The first shout out obviously has to go to Feinberg. 1st event, 1st individual, no games outside the top 10, five games in the top 2. The guy is insane, will he ever drop 1st indiv here, who knows, surely he'll actually get below a 1 z-score in a game at some point.
While we're on Red, I want to shout out KaraCorvus. It's very common in power rankings for a third frag who's just one of their best placements to drop quite a few places. Not Kara in this event, as her best placement since MCC4 was actually underselling her performance this event as she rose even higher to 14th, her best ever placement in power rankings, even surpassing her MCC1 performance. Also, since Feinberg and ChilledChaos were newcomers, technically every single Red Rabbit had their best ever performance on their way to making dodgebolt this event.
Hannahxxrose was the biggest rise compared to their actual placement this event, jumping 10 places all the way up to 13th. This is mostly thanks to being comfortably the strongest performer Blue had in team games, which in general went... not that well. Combined with her usual strong performances in pvp and movement, she was able to secure a very solid placement.
My final shout out is going to go to SmallAnt, who put up a brilliant performance as a newcomer, especially one who didn't do a ton of preparation. 3rd place on a debut Sands of Time is incredible, and a top 10 in Railroad Rush as well suggests he'll be a very strong team games player, especially with his experience in Bingo outside of MCC. 15th on a debut despite getting a very harsh 38th in Battle Box is pretty close to where Purpled and Antfrost place on theirs, so SmallAnt could really be one to watch.

Conclusion

I hope you enjoyed the power rankings! Feel free to ask why any player is ranked as they are in specific games and we'll search the spreadsheet to find the source of how or why they placed as they did, and if you have a suggestion of a more fair and representative ranking system we'd love to hear it! This post takes us literal days to do so if you found it interesting feel free to upvote it and comment anything you found interesting!
The managing, updating and analysis of the power rankings are worked on by u/Anuj_agarwal_78, u/Awesome512345, jarvig0231 (discord), u/Prestigious_Peace484 and u/Baconislife707. If you're interested you can see the other power ranking related posts for past MCCs with the links below, or if you want to have a closer look at the full spreadsheet that's here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aPTl9biMOVKqhbEcdFEtK9N_93KmiaMIpjpB2oaWQXM/edit?usp=sharing
Or if you want to check out the predictor that's here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IKSEccsTrqGqqGWkJPxqk2JTw651DFAxvBDv8Be2iCI/edit#gid=897443852
Top 10 Power Rankings in each MCC MCC34 MCC33 MCC32 MCCP23 MCC31 MCC30 MCCAF MCC29 MCC28 MCC27 MCC26 MCC25 MCC24 MCC23 MCCP21 MCCP22 MCC22 MCC21 MCC20 MCC19 MCCAS MCC18 MCC17 MCC16 MCC15
Overall Power Rankings after each MCC MCC32 MCC31 MCC30 MCC29 MCC26 MCC25 MCC24 MCC23 MCC22 MCC21 MCC20 MCC19 MCC18 MCC17 MCC16 (+tierlist) MCC15 MCC14 Season 1
MCC Power Ranking Predictions + Analysis MCCTR MCC34 MCC33 MCC32 MCC31 MCC30 MCC29 MCC28 MCC26 MCC25 MCC24 MCC23 MCC Pride 22 MCC20 MCC19 MCCAS
Other Season 1A Power Rankings Predictor Release/Tutorial SG Damage SB Damage Best players of Season 2 so far Power Rankings Ranking Systems Update (December) MCC Elevator Podcast Luck-adjusted Sky Battle Scoring Update Season 2 PVP Awards Season 2 Movement Awards Season 2 Team Game Awards Season 2 Overall Awards
submitted by BaconIsLife707 to MinecraftChampionship [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 08:23 Reasonable-Pack9951 SOS - please help.

Hello Dr. K and team,
I am a 31yo lady from Singapore and have been watching your content for a long time now. I have learnt a great deal from them and they have given me invaluable insights into my gaming partner, Z of going 7y. This message has been typed before and deleted previously, hence this is the second time and finally, I am reaching out for help because I honestly don't know what to do.
In this message, I will do my best to lay down the more significant events in my partner's life and steer away from expressing how I feel because I hope that there is no preconceived notion formed prior to you chatting with my partner (through twitch stream) based on my thoughts and feelings. We have both watched your videos and he is no stranger to you. In fact, I have told him that I am going to reach out to you here so he can talk to someone who will be able to give more concrete advice and ways to move forward (even though he said that it wouldn't help), I am doing it anyway.
Z's Timeline & Context Before we met in 2017: Z has left his family church after finding out that the religion is not aligned with science. He acknowledged that many go to church for the community. However, he took the doctrine seriously and lived by it, hence he can no longer find a reason to continue investing time in church. Most of his family and extended family are devotees and he has since then lost most, if not all of his community because of this. He ran away from home so that his parents would understand the resolve in his decision. Z looked to watching stream and playing games to keep himself sane, as he contemplated suicide.
2017: We met and got together when we were 23yo (Z) and 24yo (me). He was about to start Chinese Studies at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), while I was a graduate from Art, Design & Media from NTU. He have attempted to enter Psychology for the 2 years during his gap years and didn't manage to. He was offered Sociology and Philosophy in those 2 years, but he rejected them because he only wanted Psychology. In the 3rd attempt, he was only offered Chinese Studies and he took it because there was no other choice. During this period, Z's mom was diagnosed with late stages of breast cancer and was going for treatments.
2017 - 2018: He absolutely dislike Chinese Studies and couldn't see himself doing it for the rest of his life. He didn't want to be a Chinese teacher or a translator (or anything to do with Chinese really...). This is when he learned about software engineering from one of his close friend, Y while in university. They shared a room and Z would help Y with his homework because he really enjoyed it at the time. He is really good at it, he even coded a game just by self-learning. That's when he decided to drop out to pursue programming. By then, his mom is still going for treatments and is nearing the last few years of her life. Z wanted to show his mom that he can make a living and take care of himself before she pass on, so that she don't need to worry about him.
2018-2019/2020: Z took a 3 month full time course in Software Engineering and excelled (I took the same course later on and realise how challenging it really is). During this 3 months, he was able to complete all his work before heading home and we could still go on dates (that is pretty insane, in a good way). After completing the course, he went on to get a job in Software Engineering and has made leaps in his pay grade in less than a year. In the second company he worked in, he wanted to work in the area of Computer Science and his superiors gave him the autonomy to do so. In both companies, he worked in them for less than a year and does not invest time in building relationships with his colleagues. He did not enjoy what he did in his day-to-day. He felt that he is working to realise someone else's dream and didn't see a point in doing so, hence he quit. By then, we rented a place and were living together as we wanted to experience how it is like living together and supporting one another as a team. As his mom's condition deteriorates and his siblings' (1 younger brother, H and 1 younger sister, L) performance in school remained bad, he contemplated moving home because he couldn't get his mind off of them and how by pursuing his own life, he is neglecting theirs, especially his siblings.
2020 - 2021: After we moved back in with his parents, he tried taking care of his mom in her later years and gave a portion of his earned money to provide tuition at an established tuition centre for H who is retaking his O levels. H scored badly for his O levels the first time and decided to retake it again. However, despite Z's efforts, the admin from the tuition centre called to let him know that H did not turn up to class for 1 or a few times. Z was absolutely infuriated and their relationship took some time to rebuild since. Upon retaking his O levels, the improvement in his grades were really insignificant, which made Z confirmed the fact that despite his efforts, there were no results and it was a waste of resources. During this time, he was not in the best relationship with his sister, L either. Z loves Dota 2 and have played with his church friends during his teenage to adolescent years, this is also the period where he wanted to give going pro a shot. He has always played games very strategically and love to think of ways to outsmart the games and to find small ways to play that would make a huge difference in late-game. He is a fan of watching pro games and learning from them too.
2021 - 2022: Z's mom passed on. He struggled with guilt, thinking how things could have been if he was closer to his mom and she opened up to tell her about her cancer when it has yet to reach later stages. He quickly puts his focus on his siblings and make sure that they are steered towards the right direction. Thankfully, his sister, L did well for his N levels examination and was able to proceed on to select a course she is interested in, while H studied Nursing due to lack of options for polytechnics. All the while, Z's dad is a very absent parent and did not care much about his children. Z redirected his focus from pro-gaming to health and nutrition. His mom's demise has made him more aware of how bodies work and he invested a lot of time and efforts in learning all the knowledge he can get his hands on regarding health. This is also the time when Z decided to take weekly walks with his dad so that his dad gets at least a day of exercise in, so he can lead a healthier lifestyle. We still do it till today.
2022 - 2023: When Z started to go into health, nutrition and health full mode, he adjusted his sleep schedule from being a night owl to a morning lark. He would sleep early, wake up early, exercise and we cook so we can eat more nutritious foods and he stopped gaming. Everything seem to be going well, but Z wasn't sure he wants to do this for a prolonged period of time, after all, gaming was his first love and not doing it for so long made him feel absolutely miserable. We have talked about his before and it is challenging to find a middle ground for most things because Z is more of an "all or nothing" person rather than "finding a balance."
Fast forward to today, Z has not been working since 2019 - 2020. He has made tremendous progress in his familial relationships as he spent efforts mending and building them. However, the attitude of "not prioritising family" is very much ingrained in his family members and it is challenging to get them to reciprocate on the same level. I think of all, Z feels the most disappointment in me because he feels that I am ungrateful for the support he has given to my artistic pursuit thus far. I guess this is the story for another day or when you can speak to him on stream. I can only hope what I have been doing so far is helpful in a small way... Last night he was sharing how he feels like attempting to commit suicide because that feels like the best way to make an impact. I don't know what else to do or say because I don't think I am equipped with sufficient expertise and knowledge to steer the course well... I mean, watching healthygamergg videos can only help so much, and not as much especially when I am overwhelmed myself...
About me Feel free to call me C. I majored in Visual Communications and graduated from NTU. I am now working towards being a full time artist and work part time in a social enterprise to put food on the table. Apart from juggling this aspect, I am the primary person for doing the chores in our day-to-day. My dad passed on last Dec and life hasn't been the same since. Despite making progress in my career as an artist, there are days where I struggle too. Looking at Z's situation, most times I won't share about my struggles much because to him, it may just seem as trivial issues while he is trying to get his life sorted out.
I believe in Z and see us doing life together, but I really don't know how long more can we live with this continuous "pivoting" in plans in terms of work... I really need help because I don't know what to do anymore and I honestly think having someone who has psychology expertise will get through to him better than myself. Carrying this load is pretty heavy and when I attempt to share it, it doesn't come off the right way... Looking forward to your response. To anyone who is in a similar situation and who happens to read this, you are not alone and despite all these, I really think things can get betterā€”we got this.
I really hope Z can be invited to talk about his experiences on stream, help others who are going through the same and make more connections in the HealthyGamerGG community because he needs it.
submitted by Reasonable-Pack9951 to Healthygamergg [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 08:00 SharkEva My Parents Tried to Screw Over My Dying StepMother, Blew Up All Of Our Lives Instead

I am not the OOP. The OOP is u/WholePomegranate5342 posting in TrueOffMyChest
Concluded as per OOP
1 update - Long
Original - 13th February 2024
Update - 9th May 2024

My Parents Tried to Screw Over My Dying StepMother, Blew Up All Of Our Lives Instead

TLDR; My bio parents tried to screw my terminally ill stepmother out of trust fund money, but she caught on and now no one on my side of the family gets anything.
Throwaway for obvious reasons.
My (17F) stepmother "Jane" is a wonderful, wonderful woman. She and my father got married when I was 4, and she's been a rock in my life ever since. My mother was always my primary caregiver, but up until that point her relationship with my father was acrimonious and I basically never saw him. Jane was the reason they developed a stable co-parenting relationship, she encouraged everyone having a good relationship with each other and was always there to support me and my mom when things got rough.
Jane was always a really hard worker. When she met my dad, he was living out of a hotel and my mother was doing everything in her power to keep me away from him because she was petty and angry that their relationship didn't work out. Meanwhile Jane had a great job, a nice house, helped my dad get back on his feet, negotiated a visitation schedule with my mom (who hated her for a long time), and made sure my dad sent us money every week because neither one of them could afford an attorney to negotiate child support payments. Jane had no reason to do any of these things but as I got older she made it clear that she loved me as much as she loved my (half) brothers who were born a few years later. I even have my own room in her house because at the time we lived with my grandparents / various boyfriends of my mom and Jane felt that I needed a more stable environment than that. She's like the opposite of the evil stepmom.
When I was 15, Jane won a big lawsuit against an airline company and got awarded upwards of a million dollars. She used the money to build sizable trust funds for me and my brothers so that we would be taken care of later in life. Despite having a lot more money she still wanted to live a fairly modest life, so she paid off the house she has and has been living there ever since with my dad. Sure she bought a new car and they went on a few nice vacations but she didn't blow all her money on stupid things, which I respected.
About a year ago, things started getting really weird. Whenever I saw Jane she seemed to look sicker and sicker, but no one would tell me or my brothers why even though I know they knew. All we knew is that she was at the hospital a lot. Around the same time, my mom has been coming around my dad a lot more and acting really strange, basically like she was trying to romance him. Whenever Jane was in the hospital my mother would insist on spending the night at their house and playing mom to my brothers, which was so weird to me because she never liked them or Jane. She'd be the perfect little housewife and my mom is NOT like that at all. It was super fake.
Worst of all, my dad started falling for it. I'm not stupid - I'm pretty sure they were sleeping together. I tried to shield my brothers from it but they're not dumb either. I tried talking to my dad too but he insisted it wasn't like that.
Then a few weeks ago, my mom started talking about all the places she'd like to visit, how she wanted a new car and was looking to invest... which is weird because my mom has been a bartender her whole life and has lived paycheck to paycheck since before I was born. She was acting like she was about to get a lot of money, which started to make me really suspicious. Between Jane being sick and my mom acting all nouveau riche, I had a lot of questions.
Finally I decided to visit Jane in the hospital and ask her about my trust fund. I found out that if anything happened to her, that my dad would inherit all the money including full control of the trusts for me and my brothers. She asked me why I was so interested in the trust fund so I told her what's going on with my parents and how my mom has been acting with my dad. I didn't want to but after everything she did for me, she deserved the truth. It really hurt me to break her heart like that, especially once I found out that she was basically in hospice at this point because of irreversible kidney failure. She's only got a few more months. We both cried so much.
Then, two days ago everything came to a head. My mom stormed in furious and started arguing with my dad. Apparently Jane met with her lawyer and changed the trust so that my dad would get nothing and all of the trusts would be controlled by my step-aunt. She demanded to know how Jane found out about their relationship and I came out and told them that I told Jane everything. I told them that if they wanted to play stupid games they would win stupid prizes and that I wasn't going to let them screw Jane over after all the help she gave my family when she didn't have to.
My mom slapped me and my dad just looked so defeated. Then my mom told my dad that she didn't really love him, that she was just pretending to so he would marry her and she could get all of the money. The worst part about it is that my brothers witnessed the whole thing and now on top of their mom dying they have to deal with a cheating dad and his vindictive ex. Our whole family is in ruins and I feel like it's my fault even though I know it's not.
Yesterday I visited Jane again and told her about the fallout. She apologized and said that she had to dissolve my trust fund to make sure my mother didn't get a hold of the money, but that as "her oldest" I will inherit the house/property after she is gone and that's worth more than the other two trust funds combined. My father won't get anything because she's going to divorce him before she dies, and honestly I'm happy for her. She made me promise to take care of my brothers and told me that once I turn 18 this summer I can kick my dad out of the house if I want to. And I FULLY plan to do that btw.
I haven't talked to my dad since and I can't even look at my mom. I can't believe they would conspire to do this to Jane after all this time. Just proof that they deserve each other and I'm embarrassed that they're my parents. Once I turn 18 I'm going to cut my dad out as much as I can and cut my mom out completely. I hope she rots. Meanwhile I'm going to try and be at the hospital as much as I can until Jane passes away.
Anyways. I just needed to vent. I'm really messed up about the whole thing and I feel super betrayed, although I can't even begin to imagine how Jane feels. I'm gonna be so f-ed up when she dies. I can't even think about that right now. But at least she's not surrounded by people who just want to bring her down.
Thanks for reading.
Edit: Some people are asking a lot of the same stuff so I'll just clarify here --

My brothers -

My plan is to use some of the estate money fight for guardianship for my twin brothers so that they can live in the house while I kick my dad out. If I can't get guardianship then I will have to let my dad stay in the house. However once I turn 18 I will technically be an adult so even if my dad leaves I'm still legally able to be responsible for them. The only thing I won't be able to do is stop him from taking them if he leaves. But they will be 18 in six years so even if they do have to leave they will always be able to come back whenever they want. In a perfect world my dad would just leave and let my brothers stay with me which I'm sure my bio-mom would be very supportive of because right now she hates all of us and I doubt that will change anytime soon.

The trust -

from what I understand, my brothers will inherit 1/3 each of the estate and the remaining 1/3 will be used to keep the house running until they turn 18. After that it will be up to me if I want to keep the house or sell it. At that point my brothers will still have money left in the trust so they can branch out or do whatever they want, otherwise I will not sell the house and just pass it on to them or keep it and maintain it myself and they can just stay with me as long as they need to.
(Edit to the edit) So I just spoke to Jane and she told me that the reason she dissolved the trust is because originally it was going to be split 3x between us kids and my dad would inherit the house. She dissolved my 3rd and switched it over to make it to take care of the house maintenance, and instead put the house in my name so my dad wouldn't get it. Plus by doing that at least financially I would be getting a much bigger share (the house is worth about 1.5x the amount of my brothers trusts) I just wouldn't be able to do anything with it until my brothers are 18, which I'm totally cool with. Sorry if I don't have a better answer but I'm just trying to translate what she told me.

My parents -

The big fight happened on Sunday and I haven't spoken to either of my parents since, I think they're both at my mom's place right now but that's fine with us because we're all still mad at them so they can stay gone for all we care. I know technically that's not legal to just leave us alone but I've been taking care of my brothers for over a year I can handle a few days while he gets his shit together. Screw both of them.
Hope that clears some stuff up.

Comments

Tisanes
I'm so sorry you're going through such a hard time, OP.
The most important thing you've inherited from Jane is a strong moral compass. You could have taken the easy road and ignored everything your mom and dad were doing, but your compassion to Jane is proof you take after her the most.
OOP: Thanks a lot. Yeah when my mom was yelling at me she asked why I couldn't keep my mouth shut and mind my business and I told her "because Jane raised me better than that" and that's when she slapped me. I feel like she's always been threatened by Jane and that was just proof.

DeerBest3901
I would scream "oooOH TOUCHDOWN"
OOP: Lol that would've been funny but at the time I was more worried about keeping my brothers out of the argument (not that it worked but I tried).

LighteningSharks
You're a good kid. I'm sorry you're losing the only parent who ever really cared. Jane was meant to be your mama
OOP: Thank you, I've felt like that periodically over the years but Jane always insisted that she didn't want to replace my bio mom in my life because a girl's relationship with her mother is important. I guess she didn't realize that I already had one.

**Judgement - NTA*\*

Update - 3 months later

Hi guys itā€™s me again, a lot of you asked me for an update on my situation with Jane and my family so Iā€™ve come back with a few things that have happened since I initially posted. I will try to organize this in a way that addresses the major points of last time.
Jane is still alive and doing surprisingly well considering the circumstances. Sheā€™s always been a fighter and although her disease has been progressing sheā€™s keeping a positive attitude with everything that is going on. She says sheā€™s grateful that she was able to see everyoneā€™s true colors before she passed so she could go into the next life knowing the truth. We have become so unbelievably close in the past few months and itā€™s getting harder and harder to know that sheā€™s getting close to the end. She doesnā€™t ever talk about it though and I know itā€™s because she doesnā€™t want to hurt me but we both know the situation so weā€™re just making the best of our time. I'm also not being completely transparent about all of the drama at home but tbh I don't think she needs to hear all of that.
We did end up having that surprise celebration of life that I planned, a lot more people showed up than I thought but they all got an airbnb near the hospital where Jane is and we were able to take her out and spend some time at the lake near the facility. It was super lowkey which I know Jane preferred and I was even able to get her old college friend to come after I found him on Linkedin lol. We had food and there was music and we played games and it was overall a really great time, except Jane started crying at the end but she promised me it was just because she was grateful.
My brothers are also doing okay, my aunt (Jane's sister) is currently paying for them to go to therapy and they've become a lot more open about talking about the situation. They just turned 13 but a lot of the time it feels like I'm talking to actual adults lol. They've become really independent lately (in a good way) and aside from me driving them places I don't really have to do much for them anymore. Their grades aren't super great but they're not failing and considering the circumstances it could be a lot worse. They still hang out with friends and I'm keeping an eye out for like depression symptoms and stuff.
The situation with my mom is as funny as it is embarrassing tbh. She spent a few weeks ignoring us and then she tried to crawl back into my life basically begging me to let her move in because her lease is about to expire and she has nowhere to go. That convo went about as well as you'd think and she ended up calling me an ungrateful b**** and that I couldn't just ignore her because she's my mom. I told her to get out of the house before I call the cops and to go back to my dad (who at that point was only coming home every few days to "check on us" and grab some clothes.)
After that she tried coming by a few times and when I wouldn't open the door she would lose her mind and start yelling through the neighborhood. After three instances of this I finally called the cops but because I'm 17 they told me there's a possibility that I would have to go home with her since technically I'm a minor and need to be with the custodial parent. I told them no way because I was the only one watching my brothers atm. That led to a whole thing where after a few hours my dad basically showed up and I was allowed to stay there because there was finally an adult present and I'd basically lived there for over a year.
After that the cops firmly told my mom that if she keeps showing up and causing drama (my neighbors confirmed that she'd been there a few times screaming) that they would arrest her for trespassing since technically it was Jane's house and not hers. She left and hasn't tried coming to the house anymore but for a while she would call me constantly telling me I owed her and all kinds of stuff. She's now blocked on everything and anything she needs to say to me gets filtered through my dad.
As for my dad... well, since he's basically required to be here for another 2 months until I turn 18 we've basically just avoided each other. It's not too bad though because I've been heavily relying on guilting him for everything to get my way. For example he was going to contest the divorce but I threatened to kick him out when I turn 18 if he does that so he just signed all the paperwork for a "quickie divorce" and is basically doing whatever Jane tells him to do.
I don't openly disrespect him or anything (he's still my dad) but I've made it clear that I have no intentions on doing anything he says ever again and he doesn't fight me on it. Most of the time he's just in his room and sometimes he'll go back to my mom's but only for a day or two before they argue and she kicks him out again lol. I haven't decided whether or not I'll kick him out yet and we haven't talked about it either so I'm kind of playing it by ear.
As for me, I'm handling everything as good as I can. I found a new job where I make a little more money so I've been focusing on saving as much as I can and just being there for my brothers. Between working and school and visiting Jane I've been so busy I haven't really had time to really stop and think about everything, but I know it'll come. One of my friends has really stepped up and helped me manage everything and I'm super grateful to him for being there for me and my brothers so we'll see how that goes.
Anyways I wish I had something more exciting to share but that's what's happened since my last post :) Thanks again for all the support on my last post.

Comments

absxlution
Holy shit, I remember your first post, this is such big pile of horse crap to be dealing with, but you sound so incredibly mature and like you're really taking it in stride. Your parents have really failed you and your brothers here, but I'm so proud of how you've managed to step up to the plate and hold your ground against them. I'm still sorry you have to be the next best adult in this scenario.
It's also great to hear that Jane is still alive, and that you guys got to do a celebration of life with her. I can only hope, when I am at my own end, that I have people who love me this dearly and this deeply. I hope you and your loved ones are able to make some more happy memories with her :-)
OOP: Thank you :) and I promise that as long as you are a good person and work to make the lives of those around you better instead of being a burden you will have many people around you who will love and cherish you.

trvllvr
Jane was a wonderful example for you and raised you well. Iā€™m so sorry you have to deal with all of this. You are so young and this should be a carefree time in your life. However, Iā€™m glad your brothers have you.
Curious does dad and bio mom work at all? Or they just mooch off Jane and others? I means seems like they have a lot of time on their hands to do nothing, but he horrible people.
OOP: Hi and thank you :) Yes my bio mom works as a bartender most nights, sheā€™s been working at the same bar basically my whole life. As for my dad he works in industrial sales, he makes a pretty decent living but I think most of his money recently has been going towards my bio mom since he never seems to have money to do anything anymore lol

I am not the OOP. Please do not harass the OOP.
Please remember the No Brigading Rule and to be civil in the comments
submitted by SharkEva to BORUpdates [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 03:22 urmomirl relationship related ramblings & breakup time???

ok i need to preface this by saying that i have spent like 7 out of the last 8 years of my adult life (that is, out of high school) in long-term, committed relationships.
some context: my first boyfriend i was with for 3 years; immediately after i was with someone for another 2; then was single for about a year and a half, which was my "h*e phase" BUT i was seeing one fwb pretty regularly; finally, i've been dating someone for over a year and things are going swimmingly from their end but i've been thinking of breaking it off during like the entirety of this year.
i have arrived at the conclusion that i just dont love my partners or perhaps that i don't like men. in the past i have questioned if i was asexual because i literally did not feel the need to be intimate with them. my s*x drive is perfectly normal but sometimes i am put off. i have broken up with every person i've been with because i've just decided we both are wasting our time/ "it's not you it's me" type of thing...
however, after so many years i have finally learned that i need to be an individual. im not one of those people who makes my partner my personality (maybe with my first boyfriend at age 17...) it's actually the opposite. i literally need space. i look forward to mornings by myself, away from my partner while they sleep in (i wake up so early for work that i am usually on my 3rd break by the time they wake up). i look forward to my own routine because i just need alone time.
but lately more and more i have been finding myself avoiding them intentionally and i have started to *think* about seeking attention from other people, which is a telltale sign that this relationship needs to end. this person has done nothing drastically wrong aside from a few blunders but i just can't come up with a "valid" reason to break it off. in fact, they are so good to me that i would probably be stupid as eff to break it off. it seems like i'm one of those people who constantly needs a relationship to feel secure but i'm telling you im not. i fall for people and get attached to them, then the spark dies on my end and i have no clue how to rekindle it, and im kind of stuck being "friends who f*ck and say we love each other" for way too long after i've mentally checked out.
i guess my point is, i like this person but i just dont think i love them anymore, and we've only been together for a year. it's a complicated feeling to experience. i want them to be happy and find happiness and i just dont believe i can be a source of their happiness anymore. every time i think about losing them, i get so emotional and i don't want to do it, but its literally not fair to either of us, and they have no clue i feel this way. i guess i'd like to hear from somebody else who has experienced this in their adult lifetime and how they went about being the bearer of bad news. thank you and i hope everyone is doing good <3
submitted by urmomirl to offmychest [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 03:19 sephtherepenter LA-based production worker pigeonholed with zero momentum left. Searching for W2s but my contractor experience makes me unable to get even a ā€œnormal job.ā€

Iā€™m not going to be able to get too into specifics here without writing an essay about producers who didnā€™t just let me down but actively exploited and quite frankly f****d me hard for extended periods of timeā€¦ bear with me as this story requires lots of context. Thank you in advance for reading.
Background: I have a diverse set of skills spanning multiple departments like G/E, Art and Camera which makes me a unique Coordinator.
It also makes me the Coordinator who has PA-like responsibilities at the same time as handling any actual production tasks or concerns such as negotiating with 3rd party vendors while having to transport gear or even crew. (I know rightā€¦)
Big piece of context: Finding reliable and trustworthy drivers is seemingly tough in the LA film industry. Many PAs arenā€™t comfortable with volunteering for it in anymore and the few who do end up doing end up getting a lot more work because of itā€¦ the only downside is that you will always get roped into doing it even if they are dangling the carrot of future growth. Or PRESENT growth. So. There I wasā€¦ coordinator often getting roped into transpo driver or truck PA. All for $350 flat rates with no adjustments even when asked for.
Keep in mind: This is fast forwarding to my last music video crew which actually was the crew I started with about 2 years ago who wouldnā€™t take me seriously as a coordinator. I was a loyal and consistent PA for them for a long time working closely with the PM and head of production.
I previously had some rather untraditional yet pivotal marketing experience at an agency which is what got me into wanting to learn more about the production process as well as what the bigger budgets looked likeā€¦ they never wanted to see my resume and if Iā€™m being honest with myself they never took me seriously. Being the only male in this female dominant department, I received lots of eye rolling and outward impatience while asking relevant questions pertaining to the project so I could do my job properly. (I.e. whatā€™s the catering budget?)
In every work environment Iā€™ve been in Iā€™ve faced an ism or two like many. In music videos itā€™s both ageism and sexism as well as a refusal to review my resume which would have at least enlightened them to my experiences already having been in or at least assistant to decision-maker roles. There were many sidebars I wouldnā€™t be included in and I always found myself doing detective work just to figure out exactly what we were doing. If my producer was mad she wouldnā€™t tell me I would ā€œfind outā€ instead.
I was just a cheap means to an endā€¦ a way to fill multiple roles on a call sheet and save an extra day rate. With the lifetime & tubi producedirector I worked with, there was at least some feeling of structure with the consistency of that work.
That being said, he was an angry aggressive gay man who made every day on set combative for all crew members. I hate to point out that he was gay but his background gave him unique tools to get away with some of the most abusive behavior I have had the pleasure of witnessing. He could get away with saying outright sexist and racist shit. Throwing temper tantrums literally screaming two feet away from the face of people. Calling tattooed talent ā€œwhoresā€ and lecturing them about choosing a career in acting while having tattoos. You name it.
He had a particular kind of attraction to me and despite handling so many tasks and pulling off a handful of miracles where ā€œLine Producerā€ started sounding like an appropriate titleā€¦ he still made it his mission to be the worst mentor you could ever ask for going out of his way to make me uncomfortable. He liked my ā€œGen Znessā€ and also combatted with it often since he prided himself on being controversial.
I tried to stay quiet and out of his way but I was a particular target to his shitty behavior.
Honestly, I think he wanted more than a business relationship. I donā€™t care to get into specifics but letā€™s just say my ā€œobliviousnessā€ to certain advances he made really frustrated him.
I finally quit during a heated standoff where I was quite literally getting blamed for cleaning up someone elseā€™s mess. Since it was a SAG production we had to use media services and CAPS for payrollā€¦ the other producer who was supposedly responsible for all forms of payroll kept saying ā€œI got thisā€ until we were two weeks behind.
I ended up getting dragged into the office like this was my fault when in reality the producedirector was less comfortable confronting his producer. I ended up fixing it for the producer and somehow that allowed the directoproducerā€™s memory to continue to think that the issue was my fault.
SUMMARY: basically I begged my way into being a PA on music video sets to start. Later on, I got into working on small budget tv films like Lifetime and Tubi films as a production coordinator. Went back into music videos because they finally let me coordinate, (after leaving and getting the experience elsewhere,) and NOW Iā€™m looking for W2 work since Iā€™ve pigeonholed myself with these 2 crews and my old contacts forgot about me or assume Iā€™m ā€œwith them.ā€ Politics amirite.
Realizing the unsafe nature of these working conditions, I, like manyā€¦ am considering a ā€œnormal jobā€. In fact, Iā€™ve been pursuing it aggressively while unemployed these last few months. The music video producer made the deduction that I was overwhelmed when I was simply being overworked.
After being left for dead by this producer I worked closely with, initially feeling like I was being taken under their wing; later feeling exploitedā€¦ I now wonder if transitioning into film was the worst mistake Iā€™ve made in my career.
Hitting staffmeup and searching for work has yielded nothing despite having plenty of experience.
In reality, like many LA-based film industry professionals; I am also up against the drying up of our market with out of state incentives making it a no brainer to shoot anywhere but here. Iā€™ve assembled and managed remote teams in other states even Vancouverā€¦ trust me, itā€™s cheaper.
In fact, while searching for normal W2 work Iā€™ve come to realize that there is a certain disdain if not animosity towards film industry people in the job market. Some donā€™t see it as real work experience, others can almost puff out their chest and act as if I am an egotistical person by default without even having heard me utter a single sentence.
I feel caught between a rock and a hard place as I am actively trying to get out of independent contractor work and into a work environment that actually values my contributions. Yet, my recent experiences have me dead in the water.
Any similar stories, thoughts on how to overcome, or rants about production are welcome hereā€¦
Thank you for reading!
submitted by sephtherepenter to Filmmakers [link] [comments]


2024.05.12 00:31 Substantial_Item_828 No, Itā€™s Not Joever: How 2024 Polling Is Underestimating Joe Biden

No, Itā€™s Not Joever: How 2024 Polling Is Underestimating Joe Biden
Note: This essay was written about a month ago, for a school project. Some of the numbers and polling averages may be slightly outdated, but the point of the essay still stands.
Introduction
ā€œDEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.ā€
Thatā€™s what the front-page headline of the Chicago Tribune said on November 3rd, 1948. Itā€™s also what the polls had all been saying for months: that New York governor Thomas Dewey would defeat incumbent president Harry Truman and become the next president of the United States. And yet, he didnā€™t. Truman won reelection in a massive upset, defying the polls. Somehow, Truman had gone from trailing Dewey in polls by so much that cartoons like the following were created, to winning the election.
https://preview.redd.it/oqba22kugvzc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=92204f20feee6faea87f731a797760140c4a0814
Truman was a very unpopular president. His campaign was also plagued by third parties threatening to split his votes: Strom Thurmond on the right and Henry Wallace on the left. The way he was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat canā€™t be described as anything less than amazing.
Historians still debate over it, but the most popular theory is that Truman was able to win many voters who disapproved of him because he successfully painted Republicans as being worse than he was. This strategy was aided by Deweyā€™s weak campaign. Many voters didnā€™t like Truman, and when polled, wouldnā€™t say they would vote for him, but when the time came, they held their nose and pulled the lever for the president. The election was a lesson to not treat polls as gospel.
Today, the nation faces another presidential election. The Democratic candidate is incumbent president Joe Biden. Heā€™s running for reelection despite concerns about his age and rumors he wouldnā€™t run again due to it. On the Republican side, former president Donald Trump is the nominee. He faced opposition in the primaries, most notably by former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, but beat her and his other opponents without too much trouble. The election is the first presidential rematch since 1956. Several independent/third-party candidates are running too, the most notable being Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr. for short), nephew of JFK. Heā€™s been polling very high for a third-party candidate, getting double digits in many polls.
Biden beat Trump in 2020, but opinion polls have been showing Trump leading Biden, often by large margins. As of April 1st, Trump leads Biden by 1.1% in the national polling average according to racetothewh.com, an election prediction/poll aggregation website. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, so this is a sizable swing right. Trump also leads Biden in all seven swing states. Below is a chart comparing the 2020 presidential election margin and the 2024 polling average in the seven swing states.
https://preview.redd.it/9wvdn2yzgvzc1.png?width=631&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9c69e14cedfecc11d866837b9533d3e39a30db0
It seems like Bidenā€™s doomed. He needs to win at least some of the swing states to win the election, and right now he isnā€™t winning any of them. It looks like Trump is on track to becoming the second president ever to win a non-consecutive second term, after Grover Cleveland.
But thereā€™s something else going on.
Bidenā€™s bad polling situation seems simple on the surface. Heā€™s incredibly unpopular, having an approval rating of 39.1% (net -16.3%) according to FiveThirtyEight. His bout of unpopularity seems to have started around the Afghanistan withdrawal, although when asking someone their reason for disliking Biden theyā€™ll probably say something about his age or the economy instead. So, it makes sense that Biden would be polling badly. Heā€™s an unpopular president, and people would rather have Trump.
But it isnā€™t that simple. Because looking deeper, there are some things that donā€™t make sense. Crosstabs of polls showing massive realignments not seen since the Civil Rights era. Other indicators of a president in trouble not showing up. Things that when put together, suggest Biden may not be in as much danger as the polls say.
When all the evidence is put together and analyzed, itā€™s clear that Biden is not doomed, not at all. Bidenā€™s bad polling can be explained by two things. First, bad polling methodology underpolling his supporters. Second, people who are supporting third parties now, but will eventually return to Biden. These two things are both making Bidenā€™s polling look bad, although which one has a stronger effect depends on the poll and the demographic group. Additionally, all the indicators other than the polls, like primary elections and special/off-year elections, donā€™t show Biden in too much trouble.
Explaining Racial and Age Depolarization
First, context is needed for the rest of this essay to make sense. So, as was said earlier, 2024 polls are showing Biden doing much worse than his 2020 performance. That makes sense ā€“ Biden is less popular, so naturally fewer people want to vote for him. The strange part is what demographic groups Biden is slipping with. Instead of a mostly uniform shift, which would be expected, almost all of Bidenā€™s losses seem to come among nonwhite voters ā€“ most significantly black and Hispanic voters. Heā€™s also losing ground among young voters (usually defined as voters between the ages of 18 and 29). The Democratic Party traditionally does well with these groups, so this is of course concerning for Biden. Even more strange is that in some polls, Biden is actually making some inroads among the demographics that are historically the base of the Republican Party ā€“ those being white voters and seniors. Looking at the aggregation of crosstabs of polls during February, there are many abnormalities.
The aggregation shows Trump making massive gains among black and Hispanic voters (swings of R+28.4 and R+18.5 respectively) but making almost zero gains among white voters (R+0.1, but right under that there are slight blue swings with both college educated and non-college educated whites, likely a product of not all polls recording results for those groups). This is strange, to say the least. White people seem to be perfectly fine with Biden, while nonwhite people suddenly despise him. This phenomenon is called racial depolarization, or racedep for short.
Swings among different age groups are also odd. Trump is improving by 16.1 points among voters aged 18-29 but losing 1.8 points with seniors and 4 points with voters aged 50-64. Young voters are much more liberal than older voters. Every opinion poll and election result suggests this. Unless theyā€™ve suddenly become much more conservative, them supporting Trump over Biden doesnā€™t make sense. Along with racedep, age depolarization ("agedep") is common in crosstabs of 2024 polls.
Those are not the only depolarizations supposedly going on, as can be seen in the tweet. Urban and suburban voters moving towards Trump while rural voters move towards Biden. Democrats moving towards Trump, Republicans moving towards Biden. Geographical and political polarization have been increasing in recent years, so this suggests a strange reverse of that trend. 2024 probably wonā€™t be a large realignment, itā€™s more likely something is just wrong with the polls.
Explaining Primaries
Presidential primary season has been going on for a few months, after the Iowa caucus kicked it off in January. While Biden and Trump both won their primaries easily, how strong their performances were in different areas can reveal a lot about how certain groups are feeling about the candidacies of the two ā€“ like black, Hispanic, and young voters. But first, protest voting has to be explained.
When an incumbent president is running for reelection, they usually do not face much opposition in the primaries. Typically, only no-name minor candidates are the other people on the ballot besides the president. They do not have a chance at winning, but they do serve as a way for people who are upset with the president to express it. Sometimes, the ā€œUncommittedā€ option is also used to protest. Look back to 2012, when Obama was running for reelection. He swept the primaries, but his worst performances were in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, where he got under 60% of the vote.
The four states all had something in common: a lot of the registered Democrats were white conservatives who before 2008 voted Democratic, but switched to McCain because they didnā€™t like Obamaā€™s dark vision for America. They voted against Obama in the primaries because they didnā€™t like him and didnā€™t want him to be the nominee. Those voters would then go on to vote Republican in the general election. The places that swung the hardest against Obama in 2008 were also the places where he did the worst in the 2012 primaries.
2004-2008 swing
2012 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary
2012 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary
2012 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary
2012 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary
Now, those four states were already very red even before 2008, Obama was not going to win them and he did not need to win them. But if a candidate is doing badly in a potentially competitive stateā€™s primary, they should heed the warning ā€“ or risk losing. Another good example of protest voting can be found in the 2016 Democratic primary. Hillary Clinton did very poorly in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania ā€“ losing the first two to Sanders and coming close to losing the last. And where Sandersā€™s support was strongest was in rural areas ā€“ also the areas that swung the most towards Trump in the general election. Trump narrowly flipped all three of those states, winning him the presidency.
2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary
2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
2012-2016 swing
The polls said Clinton would easily win all three states, while the primaries said she would struggle in them ā€“ and the primaries were right.
The 2024 Primaries
Presidential primaries can give an idea of where a candidate might underperform in the general election, and 2024 primaries are no exception. If black, Hispanic, and young voters are upset with Biden, like the polls are suggesting, then they will protest vote against him. The first primary that will be examined is the South Carolina primary. South Carolina is 26% black according to the 2020 census, and that number is even higher among Democratic primary voters thanks to the racial polarization of the state ā€“ Biden won 90% of black South Carolinians in the 2020 election, while Trump won 73% of white South Carolinians.
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South Carolina was also the first primary state (so Biden did not have momentum from winning contests at that point, nor was he the presumptive nominee), and the primary was open (meaning independents could vote), so the conditions for protest voting were as good as they could possibly be.
But despite all that, Biden got 96% of the vote.
If black people really are upset with Biden, they clearly donā€™t hate him enough to cast a protest vote against him. And looking at individual counties, thereā€™s not even a correlation between the percent of black people and the percent of opposition vote. Biden got 97% of the vote in Allendale County (73% black, the blackest county in the state) and he got 95% in Pickens County (7% black, the least black county in the state). If anything, Biden did better in counties where there are more black people. And itā€™s not just South Carolina ā€“ in pretty much every state where black people make up a significant percentage of the Democratic electorate, Biden won by huge margins. He got 99% in Mississippi, 95% in Georgia, 90% in Alabama, and 86% in Louisiana. Biden came close to losing a few counties in Louisiana ā€“ but not the ones with lots of black people. The counties he did the worst in are heavily white. The same kind of people who gave Obama trouble in the 2012 primaries voted against Biden, too.
Evidently, black people arenā€™t protest voting against Biden. Young voters will be looked at next, using the Michigan primary. Just like South Carolina, Michigan has open primaries.
There was an organized campaign for the ā€œUncommittedā€ option in Michigan to protest Bidenā€™s policy on Gaza and pressure him into calling for a ceasefire. The Uncommitted option did modestly well, getting 13% of the vote, slightly higher than it did twelve years ago when Obama was running for reelection. The Uncommitted campaign achieved their (unambitious) goal of 10,000 votes, getting slightly over 100,000. Biden got 81% of the vote, while Williamson and Phillips took the remaining 6%.
Whatā€™s interesting though, is where Uncommitted did the best. Its strongest performance was in Wayne County (which includes Detroit and a few other cities), where it got 17%. Wayne County is home to 140,000 Arab Americans who make up 7.8% of the countyā€™s population, so the strong Uncommitted performance wasnā€™t surprising. The second strongest county for Uncommitted was Washtenaw County (also 17%), which doesnā€™t have many Arab Americans. What it does have, however, is the University of Michigan. With over 50,000 students enrolled, itā€™s one of the largest colleges in the country. Looking at a precinct map of the results for Washtenaw County, Uncommitted did well because UMich students were protest voting against Biden.
https://preview.redd.it/nov5qkx5hvzc1.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=cec905bdfdd4fa10be01d03a97a220925d4ffa6d
Ann Arbor, the city where UMich is located, had a very high percentage of Uncommitted votes. Thereā€™s no doubt about it, college students were voting Uncommitted to protest Bidenā€™s handling of the war in Gaza.
Looking at college counties in other primaries, there was generally a trend of the Uncommitted option (or whatever name the state has for it) doing well. In Dane County, Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin), there was lots of protest voting against Biden. ā€œUninstructedā€ got 15% in Dane vs 8% statewide.
ā€œNone of these namesā€ did well in Douglas County, Kansas (University of Kansas), getting 14.5% of the vote, compared to the statewide average of 10.3%.
And Uncommitted got a sizable 21% in New Haven, Connecticut (Yale University), compared to 11% statewide.
Thereā€™s definitely some protest voting against Biden by young voters. But remember the reason most of them are unhappy with Biden in the first place: itā€™s because of Gaza. Trump is more pro-Israel then Biden, so it makes no sense for them to support him. Thatā€™s different from Haley voters, who are ideologically between Biden and Trump. Things may be more complicated than they seem, as will be discussed later, but first hereā€™s the analysis of the third group Biden has been slipping with in polls: Hispanic voters. The Texas primary is a good place to judge how Hispanic voters are feeling about Biden. Texas has open primaries, like Michigan and South Carolina.
Biden did the worst in South and West Texas. One of the places he underperformed the most was the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). He got percentages in the 60s, 50s, and even 40s in many RGV counties, with his worst performance being in Zapata County, where he got a pathetic 40% of the vote.
The RGV is heavily Hispanic, so at first this seems like a validation of the polls showing Trump making massive gains among Hispanic voters ā€“ but it isnā€™t the only place in Texas where Hispanic people live. Biden performed very strongly in El Paso County, an 82% Hispanic county home to the city of the same name.
He also did well in places like Bexar County (San Antonio, 59% Hispanic), Dallas County (Dallas, 40% Hispanic), and Harris County (Houston, 43% Hispanic).
Looking at other states, it seems like Bidenā€™s RGV performance was the exception, not the rule. He got 81% in Imperial County, California (86% Hispanic); and 83% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona (83% Hispanic).
Hispanic voters have been slowly trending towards Republicans over time, so Bidenā€™s performances are even more impressive when that factor is taken into account. According to exit polls, Hispanic voters voted for Obama by 44 points, Clinton by 38 points, and 2020 Biden by 33 points. A lot of the people voting against Biden may be registered as Democrats but didnā€™t vote for him in 2020.
https://preview.redd.it/h35vewo8hvzc1.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c5b78394104a627ae1b8019db62aa1c3a4a1b70
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Overall, primaries donā€™t support the polls showing Trump making huge gains among black/Hispanic/young voters. Thereā€™s zero evidence black voters are upset with Biden. As for the other two groups, there are some signs of discontent, but not enough to warrant the double-digit swings polls are showing. Bidenā€™s underperformances in college counties/Hispanic counties, when present at all, are usually less than 10 points worse than his statewide performance. And thatā€™s assuming every single person protest voting will go for Trump. If all protest voters really do vote for the other party in the general election, say hello to Bidenā€™s second term, because Nikki Haley regularly gets twice the number of votes in Republican primaries as Bidenā€™s opposition does in Democratic primaries. Even after she dropped out.
Midterms, Off-Years, and Special Elections
At the same time Biden has been doing well in primaries, Democrats have been scoring wins in special/off-year elections. These elections are historically correlated with the popularity of the president, so they conflict with the polls showing Biden down. Look at elections during the last three presidencies to know what happens when a president is unpopular.
While Trump was in office, he was quite the unpopular president, and his party lost many elections because of it. Through 2017-2019, Republicans lost a net 8 governorships, going from 34 to 26; and a net 41 House seats, going from 241 to 200. The only chamber they managed to gain in was the Senate (thanks to a very favorable map and increased polarization causing many Democrats in red states to lose) ā€“ but not without losing a special election in Alabama, a deep red state that had voted for Trump over Clinton by almost 28 points.
This pattern continues to back when Obama was in office. From 2009-2011, when he was at the height of his unpopularity due to the state of the economy and Obamacare, Democrats lost big. They went from 28 governorships to just 20, 257 House seats to only 193, and 59 Senate seats to only 53. Like Republicans with Alabama during Trumpā€™s presidency, Democrats managed to lose a Senate special election in a state considered safe for their party ā€“ Massachusetts, which had voted for Obama by 26 points in 2008.
And it goes even further back to Bushā€™s presidency. Backlash over the wars caused Republicans to lose 6 governorships from 2005-2007 (going from 28 seats to 22), 30 House seats (232 down to 202), and 6 Senate seats (55 to 49).
But despite Bidenā€™s unpopularity and bad polling, Democrats have been doing well in elections despite precedent saying they shouldnā€™t be. The 2022 midterms, which were supposed to be a red wave, were anything but. Democrats flipped a net 2 governorships and 1 Senate seat, and only barely lost the House. The small majority Republicans won has been giving them trouble when trying to govern. Already, one Speaker was ousted and itā€™s possible a second might be too.
More recently, Democrats won the governorship in Kentucky and almost won it in Mississippi, both very red states. They flipped the Virginia state house and won a supreme court election in Pennsylvania by a large margin. Two months ago, they won a competitive special election for a House seat in New York by a decisive 8-point margin.
Interestingly, the normal pattern of an unpopular presidentā€™s party doing poorly manifested early in Bidenā€™s term. After his approval rating crashed during the Afghanistan withdrawal, Democrats went on to lose the governorship (and state house) of Virginia, and almost lost the governorship of New Jersey. Both states voted for Biden by double digits in the 2020 election. Something changed between November 2021 and November 2022 to cause this shift. It might have been the Supreme Courtā€™s decision to overturn Roe V. Wade and allow states to ban abortion. In several special elections right after the decision, Democrats overperformed massively. For example, Republicans won the special election for Nebraskaā€™s 1st congressional district, which voted for Trump by 11 points in 2020, by only a 5-point margin. The election took place just four days after the Dobbs decision.
The Trump-backed candidates nominated in many Senate and governor elections could also be the ones to blame. Thanks to Trumpā€™s endorsement, many extremist candidates won the primaries in key races. They often denied the results of the 2020 presidential election and had other problematic views. Most of them went on to lose the general election, sometimes by huge margins. Below is a table of all the results.
https://preview.redd.it/vx1ilmujhvzc1.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=2771b74c5d4257d66b4825078ada46216b0be9bd
Whatever the cause, Republicans flopped in 2022 and havenā€™t recovered since. And it doesnā€™t seem like Trump will be able to avoid the problems plaguing his party. His handpicked candidates were the ones that did terribly while other Republicans often did well; and the abortion issue isnā€™t just going away, not to mention Trumpā€™s the one responsible for getting Roe overturned with his SCOTUS appointments.
Of course, thereā€™s a counterargument: that Biden is somehow breaking historical precedent, and heā€™ll do badly while other Democrats do fine. That seems like a reasonable theory, until the fact that Biden vs Trump and the generic congressional ballot are polling exactly the same is considered. As of April 5th, at least.
https://preview.redd.it/l0ecq2slhvzc1.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8c231135e068129cc1f9c3e1a3b9b2ce41be3fb
Since work on this essay has started, Biden has experienced a little surge of support in the polls. It could just be noise, but it might be something else.
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Biden has also been polling as well as (or sometimes even better than) hypothetical Democratic candidates for president like VP Kamala Harris, California governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.
It could be argued Biden is only doing better because he has higher name recognition, and Democrats who donā€™t know the other three candidates are answering undecided. But Michelle Obama being extremely well-known didnā€™t stop her from trailing Trump by the exact same amount as Biden in a poll.
https://preview.redd.it/7h189dpnhvzc1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=42aa042e9462022d397bbe212c428e41f4d40c99
Democrats are doing much better in actual elections than in polls, and Bidenā€™s polling the same as other Democrats. It stands to reason that Biden would also do better in an election than in polls.
The Problem with the Polls
While primary and off-year elections suggest Biden isnā€™t doing badly, they still donā€™t explain the polls. One theory is that the black/Hispanic/young voters who donā€™t like Biden arenā€™t voting in any elections, thatā€™s why Democrats are doing well. Perhaps the biggest proponent of this theory is Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for the NYT.
This theoretical group of low-propensity Trump supporters who love answering polls but donā€™t vote in any elections sounds dubious, and thatā€™s probably because it doesnā€™t exist at all. Bidenā€™s bad polling is caused by two main things. The first is bad methodology, but before that is discussed, how polls work must be explained.
Polls work by contacting a certain number of voters, usually around a thousand, and asking them how they plan to vote. The 2024 options are usually Biden/Trump/Undecided/Other. Sometimes Other is changed to real third-party candidates, like RFK Jr. Polls also ask information on the voter, like their race, sex, age, and region. After data is collected, polls are weighted to reflect real demographics. For example, if a pollā€™s raw data has 40% of respondents living in urban areas while 60% live in rural areas, and the actual percentage of voters is 50% urban and 50% rural, then the responses of the urban voters are weighted higher. If that poll has urban areas voting 60D/40R and rural areas 40D/60R, then the raw data is 48D/52R while the weighted (and final) data is 50D/50R.
This seems like an effective way to avoid bias in polls, and account for lower response rates from certain groups. If rural voters are answering at a higher rate, just give them less weight. If Hispanic voters are answering at a lower rate, give them more weight. The thing is, voters donā€™t belong to just one group. A person can both live in a rural area and be Hispanic. And while groups (rural voters, Hispanic voters) are weighted, subgroups (rural Hispanic voters) are not.
Say, rural Hispanic voters are more Republican than urban and suburban Hispanic voters. Say, theyā€™re answering polls at higher rates as well. Rural voters will be weighted lower in the poll, but thatā€™s just all rural voters combined. Rural Hispanic voters are not weighted vs other Hispanics. That would lead to Hispanic voters in the poll being more Republican than they are in reality.
A typical poll has around a thousand respondents, and a margin of error of about Ā±3%. The sample sizes for different groups, however, are much smaller, which means a bigger margin of error. Letā€™s say Hispanic voters are 10% of the pollā€™s respondents, or a hundred in total. Thatā€™s a margin of error of Ā±8%, much larger than the Ā±3% for the poll as a whole. And if rural Hispanic voters are 20% of all Hispanic voters, thatā€™s a margin of error of Ā±18%! Small inaccuracies in subgroups can cause a ripple effect that makes the whole poll wrong. Letā€™s do a simulation to show this effect off.
  • True voting intention among all Hispanic voters is 63% Biden, 37% Trump (D+26).
  • True voting intention among all non-rural Hispanic voters is 65% Biden, 35% Trump (D+30).
  • True voting intention among rural Hispanic voters is 55% Biden, 45% Trump (D+10).
  • 100 Hispanic voters answer the poll.
  • Rural Hispanic voters make up 40% of the pollā€™s respondents (40 people), they make up 20% of the real Hispanic population. Since subgroups are not weighted, their influence on Hispanic voters in the poll is double what it should be.
  • Due to the large margin of error of Ā±13%, rural Hispanic voters who answered the poll said theyā€™d vote 45% Biden, 55% Trump. Thatā€™s 22 Trump voters and 18 Biden voters answering the poll. A proportional sample would have 22 Biden voters and 18 Trump voters. Thatā€™s just a 4-person difference.
  • Non-rural Hispanic voters in the poll said theyā€™d vote 65% Biden, 35% Trump (the true number).
  • The average of Hispanic voters in the poll is 57% Biden, 43% Trump (D+14), a 12% swing from the true numbers.
And all that must happen for this problem to occur regularly is for Trump-voting rural Hispanics to answer polls at a slightly higher rate than Biden-voting rural Hispanics, and rural voters to answer polls at a higher rate than urban voters. And since polls collect responses from people who answer the polls first, the effect can happen easily.
You guessed it, this is happening in real life. And not just with Hispanic voters, but with everyone.
A pattern among 2024 polls is that rural voters are answering at a higher rate than urban/suburban voters. In one NYT/Siena poll (Trump+4), rural voters made up about 35% of the respondents, when they only made up 19% of the 2020 electorate.
In another poll by Grinnell College (Trump+7), rural voters made up 27% of the respondents. Voters who said they lived in a ā€œtownā€ made up 17%, and itā€™s likely at least some of them would break for rural if they had to choose between urban/suburban/rural.
Looking at the 538 poll database, a clear pattern emerges. Polls that have Trump leading Biden have a proportion of rural voters that is way too high. Polls where Biden leads Trump have more normal numbers.
Rural voters tend to be more conservative and vote Republican, and sure enough, Republicans are answering at a higher rate then Democrats. (scroll to "Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?" for the NYT/Siena poll and the top of page 6 for the Grinnell College poll. Both show more Republicans answering the poll than Democrats.)
One pollster, Susquehanna Polling and Research, remarked that Trump supporters seem to have higher enthusiasm than Biden supporters, and so are answering polls at a higher rate.
The second reason why Trump may not be winning Pennsylvania has to do with who is answering polls. We suspect because Trump is the only candidate with ā€œenthusiasticā€ voters, itā€™s Trump voters in particular who are disproportionately talking to pollsters. Itā€™s the reverse of what happened in 2016, when the phenomenon of ā€œshyā€ Trump voters meant that many pollsters undercounted Trumpā€™s base of support. Many voters were afraid to admit they were Trumpers back then. Today, we suspect many pollsters are not adjusting their samples to account for this ā€œnon-responseā€ bias, as itā€™s typically called. But SP&R is doing so.
Polls also say that Trump voters are more enthusiastic than Biden voters.
Republicans are slightly more enthusiastic ahead of Novemberā€™s general election, edging out Democrats, according to a new survey.
In the poll, released Thursday by Gallup, 59 percent of Republicans said they are more enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election than in previous years. Fifty-five percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents said they felt the same.
Groups like seniors and white voters may not be swinging towards Trump because there isnā€™t an enthusiasm gap, unlike with black/Hispanic/young voters. According to a YouGov poll, groups that arenā€™t swinging towards Trump in the crosstab aggregate are also paying more attention to the election (and therefore are more enthusiastic, and answering more polls). When black/Hispanic/young voters start paying more attention, theyā€™ll get enthusiastic and start answering polls, which should improve Bidenā€™s polling.
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And that rural Hispanic voter hypothetical was based on something real. Rural Hispanic voters were already more Republican than other Hispanics in the 2020 election; and Biden did badly in the rural RGV in the primaries while doing better in cities like El Paso. The difference may be even larger than it was four years ago, with rural Hispanics swinging against Biden while urban and suburban Hispanics donā€™t. Rural Hispanics make up a small percentage of Hispanic voters (scroll down to "Area type"), so this swing doesnā€™t mean much for Bidenā€™s electoral prospects. It screws with the crosstabs of Hispanic voters, however.
As Bidenā€™s voters become more enthusiastic and the gap closes, polls may start swinging towards him as more of his voters answer polls. There have already been signs of this happening, like that surge in support mentioned earlier. Perhaps itā€™s because of the recent ad blitz by Biden energizing his supporters?
Oversamples, and the True State of the Election
Biden voters are not answering polls as much as Trump voters, and this is creating big swings in crosstabs thanks to low sample sizes. Polls with bigger sample sizes would be much better. The margins of error would be much smaller and the crosstabs much more accurate. Unfortunately, itā€™s too expensive to make polls with huge sample sizes, but thereā€™s still the next best thing ā€“ oversamples.
Oversamples are polls that poll only one specific group. While a normal poll polls everyone, an oversample might poll only black voters, for example. Because of the big sample sizes, oversamples are much better for determining the voting intentions of groups than just looking at the crosstabs of normal polls. Oversamples can also use more advanced methods of polling to reach people who may not respond otherwise.
There are three oversamples that are going to be examined here. The first is by Black PAC, and itā€™s an oversample of black voters.
https://preview.redd.it/epcr7xeqhvzc1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=6938941ae9e6b345778035bfd45f7ceb81aa98ed
Trump gets a pathetic 8% of black voters, less than half of the polling aggregate showing him getting 18%. This, along with Bidenā€™s strong primary performances, suggest that the bad polling for Biden among black voters is entirely due to bad polling methodology.
Next, Hispanic voters. An oversample of Hispanic voters by Univision shows Biden leading Trump 58-31 (27 points). Again, thatā€™s completely different from the polling aggregate showing Biden winning them by only 6 points. It is a slight decrease from 2020, where he won them by 33 points; but like stated earlier, Hispanics have been trending right for a while, so Trump making small gains among them isnā€™t surprising.
And finally, young voters. Split Ticket, an election prediction and analysis website, polled young voters. They used live text interviews, rather than a normal method like calling landlines.
In the poll, Biden leads Trump 35-25, a 10 point lead. Biden is disapproved of by 68% of young voters, while Trump is disapproved of by 70%. Of the three oversamples, this is the only one that lines up closely with the crosstab aggregate (Biden+8). Biden won young voters by 24 points in 2020, so it looks Trump is making large gains among the group.
But itā€™s not that simple.
Biden and Trump have a similar total disapproval rating, but the number of respondents who strongly disapprove of Trump is 61%. For Biden, itā€™s just 44%. This means Trump likely has a lower ceiling of support with young voters than Biden does ā€“ itā€™s hard to get someone who hates you to vote for you.
Additionally, young voters who disapprove of both Biden and Trump overwhelmingly prefer Biden to Trump. RFK Jr. actually wins this group, but like all third party candidates, his support is declining as the election gets closer. The combined voteshare in polls for RFK Jr. and Cornel West (a left-wing independent candidate) has been steadily decreasing. 6 months ago, it was 17.9%. Today, itā€™s only 11.5%. This raises the question of who RFK Jr.ā€™s supporters will break for when they realize he canā€™t win.
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Based on the approval ratings of Biden and Trump, and the ā€œdouble hatersā€ who already have chosen sides, it seems like the vast majority of young RFK Jr. supporters will go for Biden. His lead among young voters will only increase as time goes on. Of course, it wouldnā€™t be a bad idea to run ads like these to speed up the process.
Split Ticket also conducted a poll using a more normal method, an opt-in web panel. This poll had Trump doing much better with young voters than in their live text poll. So yes, some commonly used polling methods donā€™t work correctly!
Conclusion
Biden has been polling badly lately. Heā€™s been trailing Trump nationally as well as in swing states. Polls say key parts of the Democratic base, black/Hispanic/young voters, are abandoning Biden in huge numbers. But when looked at closely, itā€™s not so simple. Other signs for Biden are pretty good. Heā€™s been doing pretty well in primaries, and Democrats have been doing well in special and off-year elections. Polls are underestimating Bidenā€™s support due to bad methodology and Democrats not answering polls. Oversamples show Biden doing fine with black voters, and mostly fine with Hispanic voters. The only group he really needs to work on is young voters, by trying to decrease RFK Jr.ā€™s support.
So, 2024 wonā€™t be a red wave where Trump wins big. But current signs donā€™t suggest 2024 is going to be a blue wave either, just another extremely close election like 2016 and 2020 both were. But thereā€™s reason to believe Biden might outperform his 2020 showing despite that.
The American public is not very engaged right now, as thereā€™s still seven months until the election, so Trumpā€™s latest ventures with the legal system arenā€™t on peopleā€™s minds. When people tune in more, he can only get hurt from it. Thereā€™s also the massive fundraising gap between the two, which Trump is scrambling to close.
Hereā€™s a prediction for how the election will actually go (margins are 20+, 15-19.9, 10-14.9, 5-9.9, 1-4.9, <1).
https://preview.redd.it/ufw3oxa2ivzc1.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=55a5dcc6c246cb34381165d211b17181717ef196
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2024.05.11 22:01 ProfessorHawkinsJr hopeless love story

made this for my narrative essay in american literature, but one of my friends said i should share the story
ā€œBut I Still Need Youā€ Throughout my life, I had always fallen easy for girls. The elementary mindset of, ā€œsheā€™s cute, so I have a crush on her,ā€ prevented me from developing a legitimate relationship with any girl I tried to talk to. The few times that my feelings were reciprocated, I had no idea because I was already on to the next girl, and this continued until I was left with a multitude of friend-zone situations and a list of ā€œcrushes.ā€ My charisma already lacking, it seemed each year that passed, previous to 3rd grade, I grew in weight and therefore awkwardness. The struggle to interact with women lessened as I grew up, while the fat remained. So, by the 8th grade I was the ideal guy friend; easy to talk to, kinda funny, understanding, and unintimidating. My approachable ā€œfunny fat friendā€ nature had its ups and downs. While guys, for reasons I still donā€™t fully understand, suspected me to be gay, girls found it intriguing and it made them want to be friends with me more. Back then I didnā€™t know, but now I know that by being forced to be friends first, after finding out I was in fact not gay, the right woman for me would want to be with me for my personality. In the winter of 2021, I fell hard for a girl named Madeline. Maddie was no different than many of the other girls in that she had a bland personality and I thought she was cute. She had brunette hair with bangs, big glasses, way too much makeup on, and a unique fashion sense. Her sense of fashion was one of the few interesting things about her, yet it was disregarded by the public. Not too many guys found her appealing, but I did, for whatever reason. I was dead set on getting to know her better in hope of becoming more than friends. Unfortunately, she hardly paid attention to me, but I didnā€™t give up. I merely slowed down because of my interest in her friend, Isabella. Isabella is the Spanish and Italian variation of Elizabeth (derived from the Hebrew name Elisheba). The meaning of Elishiba can be translated to, ā€œGod is my oath.ā€ In Arabic, the beginning of Isabella, ā€œIsa,ā€ is the classical Arabic name for Jesus, while in the French language, the shortened version of Isabella, ā€œBelle,ā€ translates to ā€œbeautiful.ā€ I had met Isabella in the sixth grade, and grew a tiny crush on her, in the elementary sense, before we all went into hibernation (COVID). I barely knew her though, and she had no idea who I was, so when we interacted in my last two classes, if we did at all, it was like two strangers who kept running into each other. I sat by her in my sixth period, and one seat up and to the right from her in seventh. We only ever made small talk and the occasional joke, but when I spoke with her I felt content. Still barely knowing her, all I could admire was the little things in the way she laughed and spoke. I longed to know more about Isabella, she was mature, intelligent, and very opinionated, but still light-hearted and made time pass at the speed of light. It wasnā€™t until she was in my group in sixth period one day that she began to open up a little by sharing the details of her current long-distance relationship. The shards of my heart stabbed and crushed my stomach; hope, the oxygen to my mind, depleted faster than the air of a broken space shuttle; palpitation, nausea, asphyxia, and neurosis bombarded me like Persian arrows on the Greeks. Then, all at once, the excruciating tidal wave evaporated, but instead of calm waters, I was left with a drought. Every emotion muted or gone, my body went numb while everything I cared for vanished from my mind. I didnā€™t speak throughout the rest of that day, and went directly from the bus to decaying in my bed. I was devastated, so I retreated to my pointless crush on Maddie. Unrelated to the rather sad lovelife, my anxiety and depression worsened throughout 8th grade, and while I was going to therapy, most of my issues wouldnā€™t and still havenā€™t been worked through. Throughout the school year I had developed a toxic system of self pity, in which I would spend hours a day cycling through the feelings of hope, anger, and despair- never that of joy. I knew what I was doing, gathering enough hope to face the school day just before I reflected on the doubts and grievances going on throughout my life. Iā€™d bring myself up just for a greater fall because honestly, overtime I became numb to the natural pain. If I were going to fall into the pit that is depression, the higher I peaked in terms of optimism the more excruciating the freefall of nausea and the heavy flow of salt water. At that point in my life, I saw no point in getting out of bed to do anything, school or even my own motherā€™s birthday. By the end of eighth grade I had spent almost a total of six weeks absent, two of which were from me being quarantined. Typically over the span of one or two days, others up to four, I would be in my bed ā€œsick.ā€ During these mini-vacations I would sleep all morning, if my mom let me, and stay up all night, oftentimes listening to Radiohead or Cigarettes After Sex while staring at my ceiling. I wanted to stay up, I wanted to feel the bags grabbing and pulling towards my cheekbone, I wanted to feel empty, emotionally and physically. During the day, my anxiety attacks became panic attacks and I would get sent home for vomiting. I'd throw up to give Mom a reason to let me stay home. Iā€™d throw up to feel something, anything. Iā€™d throw up to keep my stomach empty. Iā€™d throw up because I had to, because the nerves and overthinking forced me to. Every morning, Iā€™d drag my black air force ones across cement, carpet, tiles, and marble, each step leading towards Mrs. Clementsā€™ homeroom. For every step, a different worry or insecurity flashed through my brain. But then, out of the blue, Iā€™m ā€œLincolnā€ again. I walk into homeroom with an ear-to-ear grin and dap up ā€œthe boysā€. Iā€™d spend the morning building up hopes of making Isabella laugh today, or maybe calling her once I got home, but I knew that nine times out of ten my hopes were delusional. To ā€œLincoln,ā€ this was no problem, he would make a gay joke, join the boys with teasing a cute girl in my class, and laugh until just for a moment, the despair was gone. Finally, the sixth period would come and Iā€™d get to see Isabella. In here I got the least work done out of all my classes as I would find myself strategically planning my next interaction with her, just for said plans to go out the window when I was brought face to face with her. Typically seventh period followed the same pattern except Ms. Shirley Davis could never allow small talk in her classroom. When the last bell rang, I went straight to the buses. Iā€™d sleep on the way home, dreaming of a call that would hardly happen. On the off chance my phone didnā€™t reach its feared 11th cry, weā€™d talk for hours at a time. On a weekday or not, it seemed that, when we did call, it was guaranteed to go into the early morning. Itā€™s hard to put my finger on a specific topic, or even general. In our conversations, we discussed anything and everything. Everything, except her own love interest. I admired this, as my inability to keep who Iā€™m thinking about at the time a secret is a major flaw of mine. The more that me and her spoke, the more I grew to love her. Our talks were so honest, so raw, that the secret I held began to eat away at me. My core collapsing like a dying star, each day it felt like the pain got worse. To cope with the feelings I had buried deep inside me, Iā€™d turn to my friends. At first, they said to come forward with my feelings, but I knew thatā€™s what any friend wouldā€™ve said. The relief I got from venting the conflicting hurricane within me was brief. Overtime, their words of encouragement turned to annoyance, and understandably so. When people grew sick of the same old sadistic untold love, I turned to Isabella. I wrote a text so full that, to read it, one needed to tap on an arrow at the bottom right corner of my message. The essay was compiled with the confliction I had, developing feelings for a friend, and the sorrow that filled me each day that passed without her. I described the perfect imperfections that I admired about her, how life was complete when I spoke to her, the beauty that paralyzed me every time I saw her in person, and the character that I felt God had curated specifically for me. Sitting there unsure if I should press send, a fear grew within my chest that Isabella would see right through me. I could hear the music that so often triggered tears; the vocals of Thom Yorke or the beats of Kanye West, they faded in and out. What if she didnā€™t even respond? What if she thought I was a creep? What if- then she responded. Suddenly, the ominous 808s & Heartbreak pounding vanished, my respiratory chaos became paralyzed, and time stood still. I couldnā€™t breathe until I finished reading, and once I did, my sigh was all but relieving. Isabella explained to me how unhealthy my habits were; even in comparison to the anguish that would follow, Iā€™d suffer far more and far longer should I suppress my emotions. She told me how that level of affection, in the context of the warped concept of romance most men had, was something she had only dreamt of. Isabella said that holding these feelings would eat away at me, exponentially increasing in severity, until I broke. Not only would I be hurting myself, but I would be depriving the person I care about most from the appreciation they deserve. I became bloated with fear of the friendzone, those insecurities, all based upon inference, became a reality with Isabellaā€™s last piece of advice. She said, ā€œIf she doesnā€™t reciprocate those emotions, then donā€™t worry. Iā€™m sure thereā€™s a girl out there who can appreciate your compassion.ā€ The blame had no other place to go than my shoulders, after all, I got what I asked for, advice on another girl. Isabella, even if she saw the crush I had on her, is far too kind to address it. She cared for everyone, and to her, she was merely boosting up a friend whoā€™s down. For the rest of the night her text echoed through my mind; pain, regret, and admiration caused my mind to sporadically leap from conclusion to conclusion. Two years later, those words still haunt me, reiterations of that phrase torturing me when I least expect them. The school year progressed, but my aspirations with Isabella didnā€™t. Over time, the frequency of my writings grew to be weekly, at times reaching two a week, and the weight of my confessions depleted. I opened my audience to a mutual friend of Isabellaā€™s, Miley, with the intention of acquiring useful advice. Eventually, my choice to try concealing what I felt for Isabella became too heavy of a burden, weighing down on me in forces I had not endured before. Soon, the love I had for Isabella turned to hatred for myself. I was relentlessly criticizing every aspect of myself and my mind. I hated how fat I was, my smile, my voice, my laugh, and most of all my personality. What I had thought was my greatest strength, was revealed as my worst trait. The gullibility I exhibited when thinking for a second Isabella could possibly like me; the lack of confidence that caused me to chicken out of confessing my feelings to her; my insufferable need to make people laugh; the hyperfixation I would develop for those that I love. Everything about me was wrong. I stopped eating, stopped sleeping, stopped caring, and eventually I stopped living. The ā€œLincolnā€ my friends had grown to recognize, the only remnant of the joy I felt when I was younger, died, and I was left with only my love for Isabella and resentment for myself. I began testing the limits of what was left of me, praying for relief. At first in the middle of the night, an anaconda would find its way to my throat, wrapping around my neck. Its cold black scales gracefully gliding across my skin before silencing my cries with the swift tug of its metallic USB head. The snake would maintain pressure until I let go of it, the entire time whispering into my ear, begging me to hold on. Some nights it came with what must have been a full stomach for it was drastically wider, it was brown these nights, with leather skin, and a slight warmth, but it behaved the same. Most visits from the snake ended with my vision blurry, my breath short, or my head dizzy. The only consistency of our transactions was Asiaā€™s Death Lake that streamed down my face from start to finish. Eventually, the snake seemed closer and closer to silencing me forever, but I also became used to its visits. I began writing letters to everyone I loved so that, should the snake come out victorious, theyā€™d have a final goodbye. Once I had sorted out my notes, I called the snake to my room. This time it came striped with shades of blue, its skin a soft fabric. For once, I controlled the snake, because our intentions finally aligned. I locked the door, sent out my texts, placed the written notes on my dresser, and joined the snake at my closet door. Holding onto the doorknob, the snake wrapped itself around my neck just as it had done in nights of the past. It whispered to me, ā€œlet go,ā€ for I had been on my knees in hesitation. I followed the snakeā€™s order by making a sort of plank with my body, the bottom half resting on a stack of dirty laundry and pillows while the top was supported by my elbows. Pressure swiftly fell down on my neck and didnā€™t stop. ā€œThis is it,ā€ I thought to myself. My eyes seemed to pop out of my skull, and my tears, falling down like summer rain, became blurry dots as my vision went dark. Next thing I know, Iā€™m waking up, snot, saliva, and tears strung between my face and the carpet floor. My head pounding and my eyes burning, I looked up at the ā€œsnakeā€ that was the tie my mom had gotten me for Sunday service. Although my mind was more clear, it was not out of revelation, but from a muted sense of the world around me. Other than Isabella, nothing mattered anymore, and the little emotion I felt was squashed by my immortal love. The following day I get called to the counselors office on charges of suicidal thoughts and self harm. I said what I had to in order to escape her grasp, but left infuriated. Not only had my own friends betrayed me, but the lady who was supposed to guide me essentially scolded me for being sad. Throughout the day my anger faded out and my focus became making an excuse as to why my parents got a weird call from my counselor, then Iā€™d find the traitor who sold me out. That afternoon, I lost two friends, and for the first time ever got mad at Isabella. Apparently, Miley, Maddie, and Isabella all reported me to the counselor that morning. They said I had been traumatizing them with what was going on in my life, being normal and messing around at school, then detailing my thoughts and actions to them outside of school. I felt like I had been tricked. I thought they were my friends. I thought they understood me. They asked me if I was okay, they said they wanted, cared, needed to know, but now I had scared them? I addressed what had happened with Miley first. She immediately lashed out at me, saying I should be thanking them, not be mad. While I didnā€™t want to accept it, I understood the core of her choices. On the other hand, Maddieā€™s response to my confrontation was disgustingly cruel. She said I had been unfair and just seeking attention, that no thirteen to fourteen year old should hear about what I was going through because it was unnatural. Before she continued, I apologized, thatā€™s all I could think to do, because deep down I believed her. She told me it wasnā€™t all my fault because my brain was messed up, and that opening up to the girls would only make them not want to be friends with me. The one word that rang through my head then, and still does today, was ā€œcreep,ā€ she claimed that what I felt wasnā€™t love, but I was just mentally unstable and creepy. Any remnants of the sweet kid from elementary school who just wanted a friend and loved everyone were obliterated. Maddie was right, all I had done was hurt and scare them, it didnā€™t matter what I thought. I told her all I could, that I didnā€™t know what to say other than I was sorry for the damage I had done, and I would try and get better. Her response, like a branding iron on my mind, was, ā€œItā€™s not damage, itā€™s baggage. Imagine if the roles were reversed.ā€ It was only then that I stopped texting back. I wish I could say it was out of frustration or self respect, but the reality of my manipulative traits is what silenced me. Shockingly, the response that hurt the most was from Isabella, yet it somehow meant the most to me too. Isabella told me that she needed me in the world. She told me that if I ever got those thoughts again, to think about her as well; to think about the pain Iā€™d be causing her; to think about the trauma sheā€™d live with for the rest of her life. After repeating the phrase, ā€œI need you in my life,ā€ she acknowledged how selfish it was, but still didnā€™t care. Isabella continued elaborating, she didnā€™t care because no label of selfishness outweighed the value of my life. What she said that night has been vivid in my mind since, but my only wish is that she had needed me as I needed her. Tears began to hide my freckled cheeks as I texted her about how much her words meant to me, how much she meant to me, and I apologized to her. I said sorry for the baggage I caused, the ā€œcreepyā€ behavior, and any other ways I had wronged her. I said sorry for loving her, and told her Iā€™d do better. She disregarded my apologies, telling me that I could always talk to her because no matter the baggage she could carry, itā€™d be worth taking the smallest bit off of me. Her words meant so much to me, yet hurt me just the same. I hated myself for it. I couldnā€™t see a life without an affection for her, it was pathetic. If I truly loved her, Iā€™d let my feelings go, right? What kind of person did that make me? Summer came and went. Hoping that time would kill the crush I had on Isabella, I prohibited myself from contacting her. Instead I spent time with my family and a few friends, but Isabella never left my head. Even when accompanying my dad to Berry College for the Governorā€™s Honors Program, sheā€™s what filled my head. At first I felt frustrated because before I had come forward to her, she had known about the feelings I had. I came to the conclusion that she had been dragging me along, but even then I knew how easily that thought would be abandoned. First day of High school, I got in touch with her. For maybe two weeks, I maintained a platonic relationship before free falling into the ominous pit once again. This time felt different though, it felt like what I had thought about everyday, for what seemed eternity, could be more than a daydream. We texted each other throughout the school day and facetimed after her cheer practice and my band practice. Eventually, Isabella was falling asleep on call. Before, weā€™d talk long into the night, and it began to drain the energy out of the both of us. Now, we were listening to music, playing Roblox, watching Netflix, or just sitting in silence. I had never felt comfortable with silence, but she made it seem better than having a conversation with anyone else. Itā€™s a beautiful thing when words arenā€™t required to appreciate someone. The moment I had the courage to do so, I asked her out to Steak nā€™ Shake. Itā€™s just my luck that the restaurant was hardly a shell of what I remembered as a kid. At first the conversation was awkward because we hardly spoke in person, but as time progressed so did we. I still remember the tightness of my cheeks as I failed to suppress my ear-to-ear grin. The euphoric nausea and beating heart that disappeared throughout our conversation. I remember the booth we sat in, the fact that she wanted me to swap seats with her because of her creaky seat, the way she giggled, how I fought tooth and nail to pay for such a small bill, the way she smiled when she said, ā€œnext time youā€™ve gotta let me pay,ā€ and the shared excitement for our next hangout. Even though Isabella and I were still friends, even though the restaurant was a disaster, even though the fries were stale and the milkshakes chunky, that moment is one of the best in my life. With how well things were going, I thought that it was my best chance at making something more out of this friendship. So, I shot my shot. I told her that despite my efforts the summer before, she still held a special place in my heart. Isabella responded with her own struggles with recovering from a past relationship, detailing the trust issues and pain she still felt almost a year later. I was yet again, devastated. Then she added that despite her own feelings, she had to be careful and the risk of losing our friendship scared her. I understood her reasoning, but it made me sick to think of how close I was. In response, I expressed how I could relate to those feelings, and the conflict I had with them. It felt ridiculous having opened myself up once again, to just be friendzoned. Her response struck me with both hope and devastation, ā€œI f*cking love you a ton Lincoln, but Iā€™m struggling to differentiate my admiration as a friend and as something more. Iā€™m terrified of losing you.ā€ Previously I would have seen this as a sign to keep trying, but at that moment, I couldnā€™t see past the blatant friendzoning. After pursuing her for so long, it felt cruel of her to continue dragging me along like this, even though she was being honest. My reaction to the straw that broke the camelā€™s back is one of, if not, the biggest regrets in life. Homecoming was a little over a week away and she was going (as friends) with my buddy, Davis, so in a storm of hatred for myself and the situation I was in, I gave up on her. Our conversations grew to be minimal and far apart. Soon, I started to resent her. Each day since then, I have somehow felt more remorse than the last for not asking her to Homecoming. Homecoming night is when I began flirting with Claire, a sweet redhead from gym class. We connected on not going with the person we had hoped for. All it took was me joking that I shouldā€™ve spent more time around her, instead of leaving the dance early, for Claire to lose her mind. Over the next month or so, I was becoming closer and closer with Claire, despite her irritable ā€œquirksā€. I only spoke to Isabella if she reached out to me first with the only exception being when I would ask her for ā€œadviceā€ about Claire, which was a shameful habit I started as petty revenge on Isabella. Eventually, Isabella blocked me on Snapchat, but it didnā€™t matter. Things with me and Claire were going great, she made me feel like I didnā€™t need to starve myself to be good enough for her. She made me feel like I was enough. For the next two and a half months, life was great. After the first couple months of ignorant bliss, I was sick of her. Sure, there were a variety of reasons to find her annoying, most people I knew could list more than they have fingers and toes, but she didnā€™t do anything wrong. I shouldnā€™t have gotten into the relationship in the first place not only because of Isabella, but also the speed at which me and Claire started dating. She was still growing out of the elementary relationship phase, so while it was nice to connect with someone so quickly, it was rushed. Another issue being that I was her first real boyfriend, the baggage that followed me was detrimental to her and I couldnā€™t give her the attention she needed. As me and Claire began our month long drift apart, I was unblocked by Isabella. She and I caught up, and we quickly began to talk trash about Claire while on call. It was unbelievably toxic, and Iā€™m embarrassed of how I handled things to this day. Eventually, with the support of Isabella, I decided it was time to break up. The only issue was the guilt I had in such a terrible choice, I could never do it. So I began to get more distant by the day, ignored texts and calls, and stopped walking her to classes because ā€œI had to pee.ā€ Eventually she caught wind of my plans and called me after school one day. Sobbing, she told me what she had heard and how she knew it wasnā€™t true, but it still worried her. I began to get ready to break the news, but she was already crying so what's the worst that could happen? I wish I had never asked myself that, because next she told me sheā€™d been cutting herself. My heart sank in remorse for what I knew I would do. If I led her on longer, the aftermath of my cold actions would lead to even more catastrophe. I was scared, but knew the lesser of the two evils I had to pick from. I calmed her down, quickly notified her friends to be keeping an eye on her, and then dumped her. To this day, I am disgusted by my actions. Throughout the past three months, Claire expressed how she had loved and trusted me, yet I threw that all away. There are so many ways I couldā€™ve handled the situation differently, but two stood out the most. Showing respect by speaking to Claire the moment I realized my feelings had fleeted was the bare minimum that I disregarded, but the second was far simpler. I had known from the start that I was still in love with Isabella and that love never faded, but was only suppressed. The entire relationship we developed, while we both enjoyed parts of it (her more than me), was a lie, and essentially a cruel joke played on Claire. Thereā€™s no excuse for my actions, and even worse, I couldā€™ve cared less back then. It was only when time had passed that I began to understand the damage I had done. Without Claire holding me back, my newfound freedom led to a closer friendship with Isabella. I dove headfirst into the familiar pit all over again. A friendship was not enough, I appreciated every interaction I had with Isabella, but my life depended on a future with her. Itā€™s likely she felt this as she slowly began to drift away from me. Before I had stayed up speaking to Isabella, but now I couldnā€™t sleep out of the tormenting absence of her voice. The only path to good health was time; distance was best for the both of us, and I knew it. For the rest of that school year, everything around me was going, but I stood still. It was like my life was just a sitcom, and I was no longer the main character. The summer that followed was just the same, I was living but dead, moving but still, speaking but silent. I was dissociating from my friends and family, but the absence of that violent snake made my depression insignificant. Living a life without her was more punishment than death itself, and I didnā€™t deserve relief. Even now, I think of that summer and remember almost nothing, for my life isnā€™t worth remembering without Isabella in it. Sophomore year began, and so did my conversations with Isabella. This go around, I was subtle with my feelings for her. The excitement I had for speaking with her was under control, but it was because the spark inside me had faded, even when it came to Isabella.The years of self pity and depression had left a toll on me that could never be reversed, and it didnā€™t help that Isabella began to build a relationship with another guy. When we spoke, if we did, Isabellaā€™s concern for my mental state outweighed the friendship we were struggling to preserve. I had come to the conclusion that pursuing Isabella would only make things worse, and I needed to just be her friend. Since I couldnā€™t lose the feelings I had for her, I just sat in them. While I sat in the pit, Isabella and I had one particular Facetime call in which I brought up how much I regretted dating Claire. To that, Isabella added, ā€œYeah, sheā€™s so annoying. I canā€™t remember if you told me why you got together in the first place, what led you to her?ā€ I paused with the thousand-yard stare of an American private fresh out of West Point. ā€œI guess I was just so disappointed with myself for not being able to go to homecoming with you and being stuck on you for so long that I impulsively got with another girl to forget about my shortcomings,ā€ I said with reluctance and stuttering every few words. She told me that she wouldā€™ve said yes to homecoming without a second thought, but I knew she meant as friends. Then, to my dismay, Isabella revealed that whenever I got with Claire, she still had feelings for me. It was me talking to Isabella about how great things were with me and Claire that led her to block me and cut contact with me. The piano melody from ā€œNo Surprisesā€ by Radiohead began looping through my mind as tears ran down my face. I forget how I ended the call, but once I did, I broke. I lost my breath, my head got light, my eyes became blurry, my stomach was nauseous, and my insides sank as far as they could. Everything I wanted, dreamed of, needed had been so close, and I blew it. Everything was my fault. Later I would ask her why she lost them, and her answer proved how much better she was than me. Isabella answered, ā€œI had been hurt, so I moved on. Just got over it.ā€ We hardly spoke anymore, but one text message has found a permanent home in my mind. After asking me how I was, Isabella wasnā€™t satisfied with, ā€œitā€™s complicated.ā€ She asked that I explain it to her so that she could try to understand. I told her about all the issues going on in my life, except the torch I still held for her. She wrote, ā€œI know youā€™re not religious, so it may not mean anything, but I pray for you every night, Lincoln. Even though it sounds bad, I think that I've known you werenā€™t in the greatest mental place for a while. I want you to know I'm not judging you, I want you to feel comfortable enough to share that with someone. You have to be able to recognize how youā€™re feeling in order to even fix it.ā€ These words broke me despite their simplistic appearance. Reading that she prayed for me hit me hard as she had always tried to get me to believe in God again. Iā€™m agnostic, and nothing has come closer to bringing me back to faith as Isabella did. The idea that if God were real and I could see her in heaven was appealing, but should Christianity be the wrong choice, I wanted to be wrong with Isabella. In the following days, Isabella told me about Alex, a guy she had been talking to a lot, and how they were at most a month away from being together. I hated everything about Alex, which is a stupid name in the first place. I hated his choice of friends, I hated how white-washed he was, I hated how he dressed like a conservative cowboy, I hated the underbite that made him look like a pug, I hated his short curly hair, I hated the fact that he was a diehard Trump supporter while people of his race were being oppressed, I hated how he pretended to be someone else when he was around Isabella, I hated how he hid unhealthy habits from her, I hated that a guy like him garnered Isabellaā€™s affection when I couldnā€™t. I barely knew the guy and I was wasting my energy with hatred for him, when in reality, he was just a mind-numbingly basic douche among the hundreds just like him at our school. Isabella regularly complained about Alex, but hardly did anything. Instead she stopped bringing it up, saying that talking about her issues with others only makes it worse and that she was just wining. The monotone delivery of her reasoning hurt my soul, it was like she was reciting a text from Alex. Each day that passed, I felt the urgency of expressing my feelings one more time rising. Soon Isabella and Alex would be official, and I would lose my chance to try and express how I felt one more time. I reached out to Isabella and asked if she was free to hangout that friday. On November 10, 2023, Isabella picked me up around 5:30 in the evening. She kept the inside of her SUV looking brand new in contrast to the familiarity of her smile. My nerves left me winded after every sentence and shivering in her passenger seat. Quickly our conversation became more natural as I cracked jokes to ease my anxiety, but my shaky breathing never stopped. We went to Publix to grab some snacks and drinks and headed right back to my neighborhood park. At the Grove Point Park, we found a swinging chair to sit in. Due to the time of the year, the sun had already set, but Isabellaā€™s beauty was indifferent under the moonlight. I havenā€™t the slightest clue how long we sat there together. When Iā€™m with Isabella, even Father Time gives me grace, for he knows that he is as powerless as I am to the frequency of these moments. After a while, I mentioned that it was getting late and she agreed. On the ride back to my place, I mustered the bare minimum of strength it took to confront my feelings. As she drove over the speed bump before entering the roundabout, I began to open up. I briefly told her that I still felt the same way I did two years ago, that I had tried to forget about the feelings I had with no success, and that I was sorry to once again ruin our unstable friendship. She told me it was fine and my feelings were natural, nothing to regret or be ashamed of. Her words meant nothing to me this time because I had already heard them. Defeated, I paused for a moment, then said, ā€œIsabella, you reciprocated my feelings in the past, so after Alex, do you think that maybe weā€™d have a chance?ā€ She looked at me with pain in her eyes, not for herself, but for me. She quietly said, ā€œI- Lincoln, you know I canā€™t answer that. Iā€™m with Alex now, it wouldnā€™t be fair.ā€ All I could get out was, ā€œOh- I- Iā€™m sorry. Uh yeah no, youā€™re uh- youā€™re right.ā€ Everything in me pulled and begged at my lips to say what I wanted to, but I couldnā€™t. I still look back on that night and wish I had said the few words I never got to tell her. What if saying them couldā€™ve changed something? Realistically, it wouldnā€™t have, but the regret remains. I doubt Isabella would have even remembered where my word choice stemmed from. Regardless, the words rang in my head then, and never stopped. All I wanted to say at that moment was, ā€œbut I still need you.ā€ Today, 1,725 days since I first saw Isabella, 822 days since I first facetimed Isabella, and 178 days since that heartbreakingly beautiful night, I still love her the same. Looking back on my experience with her, I regret many things (oversharing, Claire, the snake, etc.), but the one thing I have never regretted was meeting and loving her. It was only recently that I realized that loving her has been one of the biggest mistakes in my life. For three years, day in and day out, Iā€™ve thought about her. Three years where I could have met other people, worked on myself, enjoyed my friends and family, but instead Iā€™ve loved her and nothing, nobody else. The one lesson that was essential for me to take away from my experience was impossible. In eighth grade I was 5ā€™7 and 215 lbs, today Iā€™m 5ā€™10 and 165 lbs. In eighth grade I spent time with my parents, today I hide in my room. In eighth grade, I told people how I felt, now Iā€™m too scared. In eighth grade, I talked about my depression, now I am left alone to deal with it. In eighth grade, I had many friends, now I rarely speak to them. In eighth grade, I needed Isabella, but the one lesson I shouldā€™ve learned never took effect. I still need her.
submitted by ProfessorHawkinsJr to confessions [link] [comments]


2024.05.11 20:52 C---D May 12, 2024, Wordle #1058 ā€“ Hazel: ACIDS

Wordle 1058 3/6* Grade: B+ (89%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Skill Luck Info Gained Grade
ACIDS ā¬›ā¬›ā¬›ā¬›ā¬› 1770 379 75 8 22% F
TENOR šŸŸØšŸŸØā¬›šŸŸØšŸŸ© 7 4 98 74 83% A
OUTER šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” 99 87 100% A+
https://gradle.app/#SN5BnUY5KCWoRSHT
Wordlescope's guide animal: Brazilian Rainbow Boa
šŸ† Golfle 1058: Birdie šŸ„
šŸŒļøā€ā™‚ļø āā—¦ āā—¦ āā—¦ ā›³ļø
āšŖļøāšŖļøāšŖļøāšŖļøāšŖļø šŸŸ”šŸŸ”āšŖļøšŸŸ”šŸŸ¢ šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢šŸŸ¢
https://wordle.golf
Ongoing Golfle score (Par = 4 guesses):
Time Period Number of "Holes" Score
March 2024 31 āˆ’21
April 2024 30 āˆ’24
May 2024 12 āˆ’10
What would Scoredle do?
Wordle 1058 3/6* Grade: B+ (87.2%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Grade
SLATE ā¬›ā¬›ā¬›šŸŸØšŸŸØ 299 72 D
TENET šŸŸØā¬›ā¬›šŸŸ©ā¬› 38 3 F
OUTER šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” A+
https://gradle.app/#SN5I4vM6nJUPasiB
What would WordleBot do?
Regular mode analysis: Wordle 1058 3/6 Grade: B+ (89%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Grade
CRANE ā¬›šŸŸØā¬›ā¬›šŸŸØ 713 122 F
BETEL ā¬›ā¬›šŸŸ©šŸŸ©ā¬› 19 4 C+
OUTER šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” A+
https://gradle.app/#SN5ChL1UruBNYFi1
Hard mode analysis: Wordle 1058 3/6* Grade: B+ (87.2%)
Guess Result Words Left Answers Left Grade
PLATE ā¬›ā¬›ā¬›šŸŸØšŸŸØ 436 87 F
RESET šŸŸØā¬›ā¬›šŸŸ©šŸŸØ 40 13 D
OUTER šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ©šŸŸ© Win! ā€” A+
https://gradle.app/#SN5GYrR9CgECABQB
Double-letter tracker for this month:
Days Double-Letter Answers
12 0
An unlucky blank start, but my 2nd guess narrowed it down to the answer and OTTER with OTHER and VOTER having been used before. Those 2 previous solutions were also the other remaining possibilities for Scoredle while WordleBot had a very lucky 3rd guess in hard mode and had OTTER and the past answers UTTER and VOTER still in play in regular mode.
submitted by C---D to WordleBuddy [link] [comments]


http://activeproperty.pl/