Throughout this year, the prevailing narrative has been one of a robust economy, with assurances of widespread prosperity: low unemployment, rising wages, and increased earnings for the populace. However, from my perspective, this portrayal doesn't resonate with reality
The US economy is officially in stagflation, possibly worse, and I believe it's in a recession but no-one will admit it.

• Despite indicators, official media outlets are hesitant to acknowledge economic downturn.
• Recent comments by the Fed Chief during the latest FOMC conference dismissed stagflation and inflation concerns despite all of the data saying otherwise.
• GDP growth was just 1.6% in the latest quarter, the slowest since before the 08 crash, effectively zero when adjusted for inflation.
• Job market growth fell far below estimates with only 175,000 jobs created compared to the expected 3,100,000.
• The Fed is struggling to meet its 2% inflation target, despite insisting it's achievable.
• Rising everyday prices are evident, impacting everyday expenses like fast food and coffee (see starbucks, fast food chain sales declines). Consumers are stretched thin.
• Credit card defaults are surging across the US, reminiscent of the early stages of the 2008 financial crisis.
• Capital One, the fourth largest credit card issuer in the US, reported a staggering 5.9% charge-off rate (basically defaults), the highest since the 2008 financial crash.
• This charge-off rate has risen by over 230% in the past two years, indicating a significant increase in accounts being shut down due to non-payment.
• The surge in credit card defaults is a major concern for the US economy, suggesting that consumers are struggling to cope with inflation and excessive spending. These defaults may serve as a leading indicator of economic trouble ahead
• Lower-income US consumers are bearing the brunt of loan stress, as noted by Fed Goolsbee,
• Biden downplayed inflation concerns...suggesting people have extra money to spend lmao
• The Fed's approach to fighting inflation seems ineffective, as they've begun the process of quantitative easing (big one)
• The Fed's actions suggest a pivot from fighting inflation to easing monetary conditions (again lying about the 2% goal)
• Despite holding interest rates steady, the Fed is making bank lending conditions looser, favoring investors over ordinary people.
• If the Fed wanted to curb inflation, they would need to address rising asset prices, particularly in housing (but we've seen massive drops in first home buyer interest and increase in time houses are on market).
• The latest job market report marks a turning point, with job creation slowing by 30% and a rise in long-term unemployment (companies especailly in states like CA are no longer hiring - first sign of future lay offs).
• Most new jobs created are part-time, indicating a shift in employment patterns.
• The number of people working part-time due to inability to find full-time work has increased from 800,000 to 1.1 million year over year.

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TLDR; Recession incoming cause we have all of signals that the canary choking in the coal mine
So obviously with all these we'll probably see consecutive SPY ATHs because stonks only go up - I'm full port calls at open

I am not an economist by profession, although I've had my formal college education with a Macro Economics focus in college. So, take what's below as the opinion of yet another random guy on the internet.
In Colorado, the old conventional wisdom says that if you see rural train tracks overflowing with cargo/grain/coal rail cars (just sitting there parked), most likely you are either in a recession or about to go into one. Last time I saw this many rail cars just sitting idle was in 2008. I'm not saying that we're about to live through another 2008 type downturn. But I'm saying that chances may have increased on the fact that we are about to (or already in) some form of a mild recession. One 'canary in the coal mine' is the economic bellwether, Caterpillar's somewhat disapointing earnings/sales forecast for the rest of the year last week. Now the market is anticipating John Deere (the other economic bellwether) to announce muted earnings this week as well.

I have always been pretty ambivilent about cleawhite stones, including diamonds. Give me all the colors, please! I have some clear moissy rings, but they are mostly eternity styles I use to stack with colored gemstone rings. I am waiting for the perfect saturated canary yellow lab diamond to swap out with the very nice (but not my jam) clear moissy hearts and arrows in my main daily wear ring from Mona, via BST.
Also, almost all of my jewelry is rose gold, because that is what looks best on my pasty-white halibut-belly skin. White gold/silver is a no-go outside earrings.
So my partner asked WTF I was thinking ordering a 10k yellow gold ring with a whopping 4 carat clear rose-cut moissy. And to be honest, it was the snakes. The snake details are what sold me on this stock Kuololit ring.
But now that it is here, HOLY SHIT THIS RING IS AMAZING!!
I think the reason I love this stone is that it works to play up what sets moissy apart from other gemstones -- the ability to blind oncoming traffic with rainbow laser beams. This ring isn't trying to blend in with diamonds, it is screaming "I AM MOISSANITE, MOTHERFUCKERS!" It is just so over the top, all while being tons of fun. The stones are clear, spray rainbows everywhere, and are hard enough the ginourmous disco ball won't scratch or dull easily.
I ended up with yellow gold because there is an ancient Byzantine vibe to this design that plays best in yellow gold or silver. Rose gold wasn't really a thing until Carl Faberge started using it in the early 19th century.
The snake details are perfect. From an arms-distance it just looks like a nicely detailed ring. Up close, OMG there are tiny snakes biting down on the gold disk supporting the ring! In another thread, I descibed it as subtle enough that Samuel L. Jackson isn't going to jump out and scream "Snakes on a plane!" if you fly with it on.
On top the best part. I picked up BOTH the 10k and sterling versions of this ring for $167 during the last big AliExpress/Kuololit sale!

If you're following along, we began our second season in the Championship last time around
Exeter's second season in the EFL Championship proved a thrilling installment for the south coast side, albeit one that was not without some challenges to the manager.
The winter window and late season changes
As Exeter mounted a threat to the top of the table, some of their star players caught the attention of scouts, impressed at the consistency and talent on display. While manager Andy Maher and the backroom recruitment staff worked hard to line up potential replacements, the Director of Operations made it clear: Exeter remains a club that needs to sell to fund operations. The winnings and TV money from another season in the Championship would not be enough to cover wages, infrastructure, and renewed contracts for star men now happily earning a raise in England's second tier.
First out: rival Millwall swooped for star Dutch Goalkeeper Bernt Klaverboer. The shotstopper posted a stellar first half of the season, and led the Championship with 12 clean sheets from September through December--almost one every other week.
3.9m in the bank for the sale of Klaverboer
With the transfer arranged in mid-December, Exeter had time to locate some quality options. The backroom showcased its acumen for finding gems on a shoestring budget, and soon nailed down the services of Danish prosepct Peder Lervik. With room to grow, but on the bench behind two starting options, Lervik was happy to take advantage of a 6-month loan opportunity; while Exeter landed a talented man for the price of 50% wages only.
Loaned in for 6 months
The move that fans had been dreading arrived soon enough in January. With Exeter firmly in the playoff places, one of the Championship rivals came knocking with a stellar offer for Exeter's playmaking winger, and rising Welsh international star, Curtis Pearson. With an offer of 14.9m on the table, Luton smash the record fee paid to Exeter and secured the services of a top-notch winger as the Hatters chase promotion back to the Premier League. "We wished Curtis all the best: he's a talented young man we'll see at the Euros and in the World Cup soon enough," said Maher in a press conference. "We understand the need to take opportunities, and we couldn't compete with the pay package and wages that Luton offered the lad."
Playmaker Pearson moves north
There are innuendos that Exeter added a sell-on clause to the sale contract, rumored to be around 4% of a future fee. While young Englishman Bobby Clark held down the other wing, Exeter would need to seek out a talented replacement if they hoped to keep promotion playoff hopes alive through January.
With part of the proceeds, they located a player who seems a talented enough replacement, though he's been suffering for confidence in Italy: young American player Serge Ngoma. The speedy winger adds a different dimension to Exeter's play, with a devastating cut inside and the pace to get over the top of fullbacks.
While not as highly regarded as Pearson, some pundits find his strength an asset
The wide man will immediately slot in as an inverted winger on the left, cutting to open his right foot for shots and crosses.
Those moves saw an eventful winter transfer window slam shut, as Exeter held onto other star men like Sonny Cox and Idrissa Camara. "There were some nibbles, some offers for Sonny, but we talked with him and his agent. Sonny's from here, a local player, and he looked at the fixtures list and said he'd decide after the season. We are in a real chase for promotion and he wants to lead that," said Maher.
In the Hunt
Indeed, Cox led the line to a smashing attack as one of the league's best forward players. With a deep set of midfielders playing balls over the top, Exeter crafted a mix of Route-One ball and a careful tikka-takka attack that held possession and forced the opposition to chase around the field.
The lineup and subs bench
The talented midfielder Idrissa Camara paired with Cox for a number of assists, as did wide man Clark and Irish international Adam Murphy. With the unselfish play of the midfielders, Exeter found themselves climbing slowly into the playoff hunt by the end of February. With 12 matches left to go, Exeter sat third in the table, just points behind Luton and Bournemouth.
Trailing on points and goal differential, Exeter entered the final 6 matches of the season needing results to go their way, AND a goal swing.
First, Exeter took care of their end by smothering unfortunate Peterborough 7-0. Combined with a shock Bournemouth loss, Exeter jumped into 2nd place in the table, three points behind 1st place Luton Town, who were seeing a stellar campaign from Pearson.
In another shock, with four matches remaining, Luton dropped points and saw Exeter leap over them into the title position at the top of the table. Exeter's 3-2 win over Preston North End sent the Grecians to 99 points, leading on goal differential!
The next week saw Exeter extend their lead with a win, and another shock Luton draw. The table stood at Exeter 102 points, Luton 100 points, with two matches remaining in the season. Below these two, the table remained equally thrilling, with Leicester and Bournemouth locked toether on 98 points. There was still no guaranteed champion and no guaranteed promotion team, with two matches to play. It was a fixture-maker's dream.
Unfortunately, Exeter crumbled ... shipping three goals to Derby County and letting Luton seize the lead on 103 points, with one match remaining.
The final day dawned over Norwich with Exeter, the away side, needing a win, and a Luton loss, to seize the title on the last matchday. An Exeter win was the only way to guarantee promotion; a draw would open the door to a Leicester or Bournemouth promotion if results went their way.
Thankfully Exeter seized control of the match with a Camara strike in the first half, and a Cox finish in the 2nd, to blank the Canaries and earn their first ever promotion to the Premier League!
The pivotal three final weeks
The Premier League Beckons
After the champagne, after the parades, after the celebrations, came time for Maher and the Exeter board to make some sober reflections. Exeter would join Luton as one of the smallest stadiums, with the tightest transfer budget, in the top tier. "We looked at how Luton fared in their last season, and how the likes of Bournemouth and Everton and Burnley get along in the Prem. It's not going to be an easy road at all," said Director of Football Operations Julian Tagg. "The League makes some funds available to teams immediately, but we'll need to be judicious with that and make some wise moves, and hope that the management team and coaching staff can coax the best from the players.
Exeter have two glaring weaknesses relative to the Premier League playing staff: a need for several first-team and experienced goalkeepers, and a need to revamp the back line of defense. Expect to see the Grecians operate in the free agent market and attempt to land loans as well. "We have seen the importance of veterans in the defense," said Maher in a preseason interview, "and we expect we'll be looking for a couple players who've played in some of the top leagues in the world--but we can't really afford to keep up with the top sides."
Early moves
Exeter's first move was to land talented Scottish midfielder David Watson on a free. The 23-year-old had joined Italian side Lecce after turning heads at Kilmarnock, but his contract wound down and Exeter were able to swoop for the holding midfielder. With a range of passing and a fierce long shot, he makes a strong addition to the engine room.
Joining him is Irishman Ciaran Brennan, a veteran of Sheffield Wednesday's struggles. Also available for free, he is a likely rotation player for the Grecians. Expect to see him playing in cup ties or as a substitute.
No splashing of cash yet as Exeter make shrewd free moves
In something of a surprise, midfielder Bobby Clark was loaned out to Anderlecht. "It's really a move to suit all sides," said Maher. "Bobby lost some form and confidence in the late season, and Anderlecht were looking for depth in their European run. We felt we could give him some fresh games, a different route to develop." Clark departed for a loan to the Belgian champions where he might see action in European competitions.
Shock loan move
In a pair of moves to strengthen the matchday bench, Exeter landed West Brom's Grady Diangana and Huddersfield's Killian Phillips. With West Brom being relegated from the Premier League at the end of the last season, Exeter saw a chance to bring on a veteran of the league to provide leadership and a locker room presence. Phillips is expected to provide cover for Sonny Cox.
Frenchman Etienne Kinkoue joined on a free to bolster the backline, slotting in next to club captain Alex Hartridge in the 4-man backline. After several seasons in France's League 1 with Le Havre, he made the switch across the channel to play for Exeter. "We expect Etienne to be a strong aerial and defensive presence; he brings great awareness to that backline," said Tagg.
Three quick moves to bolster the squad
In the background, there were rumblings of a major move being made, but no pundits nor fan commentators could really nail down what Exeter's backroom had in store. Most fans worried publicly about offers for Cox -- "we did too," said Maher. "But no credible offers came as we geared up for the season...we remain fortunate!"
In a necessary bit of moneymaking, two Exeter players departed, including starting midfielder George Kilkenny, who went to Hull City. Definitely a loss for Exeter, as Kilkenny was a stalwart in the midfield. Joining him back in the Championship was Keena, who found minutes hard to come by. His move to Preston netted 1.2m and opened the door for Phillips to earn the lion's share of substitute minutes.
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The Shock Return
In late July came a rumor that Exeter had reached out to a former academy grad who had reached the storied heights of top-level play, European weeknights, and who had faced top competition for years. While many might have wondered if Exeter magically recalled Ollie Watkins or Jay Stansfield, the truth was less dazzling, but significant all the same:
Exeter landed Jordan Storey, who last appeared in the red and white of Exeter in 2018. After an impressive stint with Preston, he had been swooped up by AZ in the Netherlands, where he was a regular starter for the Dutch side. Now over 30 but not losing a step, he returns to where his career started, and seizes a position in the starting lineup for the Premier League newcomers. "I can't wait to help Exeter," he said. "It's a dream to be back here, but instead of the academy training ground or a loan to Tiverton, it's the Emirates or Old Trafford."
Another return
Storey joins last season's feel-good return Ben Chrisene as he rejoins the side that got him his professional start. Signing a 3-year contract, he looks set to finish his career where it started.
Wrapping up the transfer business, Exeter reached down into the Championship for a hybrid wingestriker to bolster the goalscoring attack. Sayyadmanesh arrived for a fee of 6.2m, a new record fee paid. "We felt it was a needed investment, and Allahyar's really hitting his stride now," said Maher. While we think he might have the pace and dribbling skill to thrive, we do wonder about his goalscoring threat, which Exeter will desperately need.
Along with the winger, Exeter bring in veteran goalkeeper Ndiaye and fullback Thierry Small, who couldn't quite break through at Southampton. Ndiaye is likely to feature in the starting XI, while Small is a rotation choice.
The last of the transfers
The XI after the transfer window
Interestingly, Exeter opted not to replace fullback Lucas Bergvall, the loan star from Reims. Instead, young star Rory Maguire slots in at the right-side fullback. While many felt it a risk to leave the youngster in, he is surrounded by veteran players and has demonstrated a composure beyond his years in the early going.
"I'm not sure it's a team fully built to survive the Prem," said football pundit and blogger Beth Gibbons. "The manager has done a job already getting them here, but the struggles they have with recruitment, and the gambles on Hartridge and Maguire, are worrying. The midfield and attack are Exeter's strength, but if teams can tear through that defense, we might see them struggle if they are giving up two and three goals at a clip in matches. The Prem is full of defenders who can limit Cox's and Camara's and Sayyadmanesh's chances."
The starting XI
In fact, while he hasn't yet tallied the goals and assists of his swashbuckling rookie campaign, he has notched a respectable 6.46 WhoScored average in his appearances, and helped the team to a shocking clean sheet against Liverpool
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Results so far
...have been mixed, to say the least. Exeter started brightly, with a Cox hat-trick introducing him to league defenses, as Exeter opened by beating Brighton. Since then, the growing pains have been apparent, with a draw away at Leeds and two league losses where Exeter would have hoped to earn some points. The shock 0-0 game against Liverpool sent St. James' Park rocking, and then a rebound 2-1 win over Wolves sees Exeter maintain their 12th place standing.
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With a -1 goal differential, Exeter sit in the bottom half, though they are in better shape than Luton and poor Crystal Palace (who have just 1 point and a -11 differential)
But Exeter have a range of difficult fixtures coming in September, with Tottenham, Manchester United, and Aston Villa all looming.
Only time can tell-- in the crucible of the Premier League, will Exeter's mettle be strengthened, or will it crack under the heat and pressure? Follow us for more Exeter City coverage as the Grecians attempt to survive their first ever season in the top flight!
Player Notes
PC, with gameplay and realism mods
Notable rules: for recruitment, I am limited to:

• incoming transfers can be +1 over position average when the window opens. This simulates a difficulty in the small club's recruitment.
• ONE player per season is allowed to exceed this rule, to recreate intensive recruitment efforts to lure a star crucial player. This allows me to target an area of weakness, but prevents a complete overhaul.

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• This season, the position average at defense was 72, so the allowable transfer would have been 73. Storey, at 76 overall, is my "Star" signing who exceeds the averages. All other signings must be within the max allowed, shown above.
• Averages are re-calculated for the winter window

Use of a randomizer for recruiting and transfers. I identify reasonable targets and then have a 33% chance of the player agreeing to negotiate, stalling, or declining. This, along with a preference for loans, has led to some struggles this year! Notes below.

• 6 loan offers declined
• 6 players stalled us; 4 of them declined after a month. 2 stalls decided to join us: Storey, who stalled all of July, and Sayaddmanesh, who stalled until deadline day.
• 3 successful offers failed in later negotiations: the Azaz loan fell apart as Villa wanted Exeter to take on too big a wage split; Pinargote was sniped in a loan deal with DC United, and Yoan Bonny demanded a crucial role that we were unlikely to ever fulfill.
• Our top target was West Brom CB Taylor, who at 25 years young and 75 OVR, had room to grow and would have been an excellent addition; however, he declined negotiations with us; that actually opened the door for us to land Storey, who was the 2nd choice there.

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There are other rules in play, but these two have crafted a fun challenge to keep the career fresh and make landing players, and growing the team, a real grind.
Full rule set and tracking sheets are here! including the randomizers for transfers
If you read this far, you're a saint!