A first timer's cruise on Aida may 1st - may 5th
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Since I used this group to prepare for my cruise it seems only fair to give a little back to the community and write up my impressions. Besides, Aida, the German market subsidiary of Costa, isn't a company that's discussed much here.
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About us We're a 50 year old Dutch couple living in the west of the Netherlands. We've never cruised before but our children are now of an age that makes it an option to leave them at home and enjoy a vacation with the two of us. As is fairly typical for people in this country that consistently tops the English proficiency index list our English quite good and our German is mediocre mainly due to lack of practice. I've visited Germany for business trips quite regularly and we've take summer holidays in Austria the past few years.
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The cruise We've had ideas about taking a very special holiday as a couple for some time now. Several ideas on our lists are luxury cruises in exotic locations but we realised we have no idea if we'd actually enjoy one. So we booked a short cruise to try it out. We opted for a 5 day cruise Warnemunde-Gotheborg-Aarhus-Copenhagen-Warnemunde.
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Booking Rather than booking through an agent we booked directly on the company's website. We found two basic options, they choose your cabin within the category you pick or you can do it for a surcharge. Since it's important to us to have twin beds and no double we picked the more expensive option and chose a sea view cabin at the front end of deck 4, the lowest passenger deck. You're not expect to pay right away but you get an invoice in the mail after several days. Once that confirms your booking you can start ordering excursions. We had a long look at those and noticed that quite a few nice excursions were already sold out or started very late in the day. So an 0800 mooring and then an excursion at 1530 the same day starting at the ship. So what are you supposed to do with the rest of the time?
We also used Aida's website to book parking on a partner company. 60 euros for parking for the duration of the trip in a guarded parking area and shuttle service to the ship.
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Embarkation Aida uses a high ceiling glass building at the port. At the entrance very surely security staff that is there to check your paperwork to make sure you're not there a minute too early or too late, you've got a 30 minute slot for embarkation and you better be there!
Inside Aida blasts some 90s pop at volumes high enough that I struggled to hear the boarding agent.But we had our reservation papers and she quickly gave us two preprinted barcode cards which are your key to everything on board.
At the security check they confiscated some snacks even though they met Aida's rules for pre-packaged foods. It also seemed that they'd learned customer service at the same class as the people at the door. Ship's own security staff were really friendly.
Also interesting to note that a LOT of people were already wearing an Aida lanyard around their necks. We discovered later that this is apparently a thing among fans to build a collection of aida branded lanyards and to display their brand loyalty this way.
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Cabin We'd opted for a sea view on the front of deck 4. Turned out to be a good spot mostly. Fairly quiet, except when mooring and just a minute walk to the embarkation area on deck 3. Cabin itself is small but did look exactly like the brochure. Clean. I was glad that the top 2 fold down bunks were there, this allowed me to take a mattress from there and put over the first since it was rather thin. Our package included 2 bottles of water per day which were promptly supplied by housekeeping. It did not include the extra, extra large bathrobe I'd requested at no extra charge at booking. I'm really tall so a normal bathrobe barely covers the essentials. Our sleep was good most days except one when it was quite windy and they used the stabilisers a lot which caused a sensation like someone shaking your bed.
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Being tall on board OK, I'm used to my feet sticking out the end of a bed, I can deal with that. I'm less used to walking with a slight stoop in corridors to avoid head injuries from sprinklers or exit signs. Entering elevators did involve some serious ducking down and maybe it was me looming over other people that caused people to almost never share an elevator with us?
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Food and drink There's 2 buffet restaurants on board which serve differently themed food at lunch and dinner while breakfast is pretty much the same. Quality wasn't bad most of the time but it wasn't really great either. I think breakfast was probably the best meal with loads of German classics as well as standard international fair and good breads. We were pleasantly surprised the first morning that one of the waitresses brought a whole pot of coffee to our table but we didn't understand why their coffee was cheap and weak tasting. The instant coffee we found at the tea counter (which had really good quality teas) was a better option.
If you made an effort it was certainly possible to eat healthy. Only thing they didn't ever understand was crispy fries, it was all British style soggy. There's an Asian restaurant which has 2 or 3 pre cooked dishes and a selection of raw ingredients you can pick and mix and have a cook prepare for you (without much in the way of seasoning) while you wait at your table. The concept isn't bad but the execution is, the buffet area is extremely crowded and there's no real room to do the necessary queuing for the cooks. Poorly thought out this.
Seating at all free restaurant was free, just find something. Dress code was no shorts and that was mostly followed.
The burger bar, Burgers at sea or something is an f-ing disgrace. A half hour wait gets you a small burger of very dry meat, a tiny cup of very sweet coleslaw and a mini portion of soggy fries. The steakhouse, one of the two restaurants on board where you pay for food and drink, was actually really nice. Good service, the "bison"meat was great and it is indeed cooked exactly to order. Worth the money!
We're not big drinkers so only tried the bar once or twice, would have gone more often if they offered decent coffee but for some reason they have Starbucks. Nice selection of gins, disappointing range of beers. No bar snacks except some cheap salty peanuts.
There's no room service.
The drinks package for our cruise for some strange reason only allowed for soft drinks and coffees. Apparently our trip was one day too short for the full drinks package. This didn't seem worth it considering they use a coffee brand we really do not like.
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Excursions Can't say much about those. We bought hop on/off tickets for Gothenburg and Copenhagen. Nearly bought a harbour tour at Aarhus but it was members only and for some bizarre reason the system allowed me to book but not my wife. By the time we'd sorted that out it was sold out.
After mooring in a Harbour you're herded to the buses in a fairly effective matter making it impossible to get lost.
Gothenburg's mooring location was really far from the city. At Copenhagen it was close enough that the hop on bus company actually ran shuttle buses to the cruise terminal. At Aarhus we moored within easy walking distance of the city. All three cities didn't exactly provide a scenic harbour.
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Gothenburg: City is a big construction zone. Fair bit of shopping, nice art museum. Good food and the old streets of Haga neighbourhood are a fun tourist attraction (tip: don't go for the cinnamon buns at that cafe with the huge line but the one 50 metres west)
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Aarhus: Lovely provincial university town. Aaros is a must see if you have any connection at all with modern art. The Gamla By is pretty unique in being an open air museum focussed on urban instead of rural setting.
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Copenhagen: Did the bus tour to see something of the city, quickly strolled through the masses at the old harbour and got very distracted by the Tivoli amusement park which features a roller coaster more than a century old.
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Wellness/sauna The sauna's nice, really clean, located at the top of the ship for a great view and a steal at 5 euros an hour. It's also a mixed gender naked sauna which suits us fine. We considered a wellness treatment of some kind but the staff person at the desk didn't exactly make this an attractive option to book so we skipped that.
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Information flow Ask a question to two different staff members and get two different answers. Onboard, use the app? The bordportal (ship's intranet) and log on with your email? Booking number? An arbitrarily assigned pin code? Eventually we learned that the paper program delivered to our door was most reliable best source of information
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Pool deck or rather the smoking deck Didn't try the actual pool it's tiny and crowded. On boarding day we did spend an hour or two on the loungers on the deck above the pool level it because it was exceptionally nice weather on the departure day. And then the constant smell of cigarette smoke got on our nerves. Because Germans love to smoke! And they're apparently allowed to smoke anywhere outside on the top decks! (Except the nudist area)
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Entertainment They have a group of 4 singers and 4 dancers/acrobats that performed a different show every day we were on board. Shows lasted 40-50 minutes and were really quite entertaining. There was also a talkshow hosted by the cruise director, didn't interest me much. Also saw a band in the "casino" area one night, wasn't bad but very loud. Personally I'd have liked to see some other options. Maybe a little jazz in the lounge? Piano player?
They also organise activities, we tried a dance workshop once which turned into a private lesson since we were the only couple showing up. I'd say they could get a lot more people if they'd share a little more information about these but..
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Staff A lot of the European staff is German. I found quite a few of these not exactly friendly. Not sure if they're just too busy or if my mediocre German was the issue. Asian staff in general was quite friendly and seemed fine with our German (theirs wasn't any better), some seemed to prefer English. I saw a group of them do a spontaneous surprise musical greeting for a regular guest celebrating birthday
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Guests Almost exclusively German, I noticed a Dutch family and was sure I picked up a little Polish and even some Czech. So call it 98% German. Age range was 40-75 with mostly couples and groups of female friends. A handful of young families.
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Our conclusion: Cruising in itself actually seems to suit us. There's something about a new location every day that gives you a nice feeling of travelling, making a journey. Would we do this again? Possibly. But not on Aida. I'd like a little more luxury and a lot less cigarette smoke.

Anul meu sabatic - no more morning briefings and pure waste of time - n-a fost prin Belize or any exotic stuff, mi-am cumparat o a doua masina (ochi dati peste cap pe fuckcars) si am condus ca terapie. Oricum conduceam mult, un fleac. I drove them all, de la o tipa pe care am luat-o de la locul de munca de pe Centura la o doamna care-si negocia contributia intr-un contract cu o institutie guvernamentala, aka milioane de euro. Ye, I know, suna a bedtime story. Totul in Uber X, nu Uber Black or whatever. AMA.

Context: I (23M) am a high school teacher and sports coach in the US. I get two weeks off from late June to early July and want to solo travel to somewhere new. My budget is roughly $3k (excluding flights). I plan to fly using credit card points, and I typically stay in hostels/airbnbs when solo. I am mostly interested in destinations with a mix of cities and beautiful nature. Sightseeing, good food, a sociable atmosphere, and adventure experiences are a welcome bonus.
Places I have travelled to: Mexico, Belize, South Africa, Costa Rica, Ireland, England, Canada, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Hungary, Austria, Argentina, Guatemala
Ideas I'm considering: * Germany for Euros + Poland or Czech * Colombia * Japan * Thailand * South Korea * Also open to other destinations!
Any tips and recommendations would be greatly appreciated!

Hey everyone,
I just passed the border between Quintana roo and Belize. Before that I read a lot about taxes we might have to pay there so I was quite uncertain what to expect.
To make it easier for everyone after me, here are some things I learned from the very kind immigration officer:

1. At least try to speak some Spanish. The woman was so happy when I greeted her and made some Smalltalk.
   
2. The tourist tax is often included in your flight ticket, when you arrive. When you don't have a detailed receipt with explanations, look out for the abbreviations 'MX', 'DNI' or 'UX'. The amount is more or less 38 euros. This is important. You gotta show her this part otherwise you have to pay it there.
   
3. When you go to Belize and come back, there is a huge difference if you come back by land or by water : by land, Mexico gives you 7 days before you have to pay the tax again. If you find this unfair: keep in mind that you officially left the country and are now re-entering it. For them, the tax on your flight does not cover that anymore. If you arrive by water you immediately have to pay the tax again. So look out for that on your journey.
   
4. I didn't need to pay any other tax. If they want to press you on anything else, be strong and dispute. I was really lucky and didn't encounter any corrupt police in Mexico but we all know the stories.
   
5. Regarding Belize: you have to pay 20 dollars when you leave the country. Nothing to pay when entering.
   
6. Enjoy. San Ignacio offers some really fascinating tours.
   

Hope that helps someone who is searching for a precise answer as I was !

currency\_code, 

Hello!
My girlfriend and I are planning to go to Mykonos this June for 3 days. We want to have one day of beach clubbing, and plan to go to Sant Anna during the day and Scorpios during the evening. We're also curious about Pasaji. We've never been to any beach clubs before so we're a little confused about some of their policies/rules.
Sant Anna
(1) If you book a spot in the Boho Lounge area, are you guaranteed seating?
(2) If you book a spot in the Boho Lounge area, are you able to go to the beach, pool, and bar area?
(3) If you book a spot in the VIP Bar area, are you able to go to the beach, pool, and boho lounge area? How do they enforce this?
Scorpios
(4) I read in some blogs that if you make a "Sunset Beach" reservation, you're required to buy a bottle of something, and for parties of 1 or 2 it can be wine or liquor. One blog mentioned the cheapest option was a 50 Euro bottle of wine. But their website doesn't mention this anywhere. I'm fine if there's a 50 Euro minimum spend, but we're not wine drinkers -- could we just buy 50 euro worth of cocktails?
(5) Their site says that the sunset rituals happen Mon/Wed/Fri/Sat. If we go on a Tuesday, will there still be music and entertainment? What's the vibe?
Pasaji
(6) Their website doesn't appear to be open for reservations for the 2024 season yet. Does anyone know how much it costs to reserve a table for Shisha /Cocktails, and how much for beach loungers?
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(7) Finally, do any of these places search you on the way in? In case we wanted to sneak in some snacks to try and save some money?
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Thank you!
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Sorry if these questions have been asked before, I've searched up and down Reddit and TripAdvisor and couldn't find the answers.

ANALYSIS:

• A quick look at USDJPY, so we have seen more talk emerge from Suzuki the finance minister and others around intervention. USDJPY is trading at that 150 level which tends to be consistent with intervention.
• As such, we are now seeing some divergence between risk reversal on USDJPY and current price action. Traders are expecting some intervention soon, and expect JPY to move higher, thus moving USDJPY back towards 148.
• https://imgur.com/a/UNefVQC
• Meanwhile, if we look at DXY specifically, we can see that the risk reversal continues to widen in its divergence from spot price. DXY moving higher in response to hot PPI and CPI, but traders continue to price dollar to fall in the medium term.
• We see with EURUSD that skew points higher. Open interest is building on 1.09, and traders continue to expect EURUSD to rise. We see this in premarket as Dollar fell, and whilst GBP fell EURUSD moved higher.

What do we see when we look at US premarket:

• So we saw a rebalance after OPEX on Friday. There are more put options developing. IV in OTM put options increased, a sign of increased hedging. NVDA skew points lower which is a sign of profit taking ahead of earnigns and we see this as NVDA is down 1% in premarket despite bullish price target from Baird.
• We are seeing more hedging then in SPX, but money flows remain near highs.
• https://imgur.com/a/SqVoPMb
• When we look at QQQ, we see skew is downward after Friday’s close, and block flows move lower. We may see some correction in Tech soon. It appears fundamentals are supporting this too, as we continue to see divergence between SPX and bond yields.
• 426 looks like support on QQQ.
• 440 is still the call resistance.
• IWM skew shows hedging after PPI data too.
• G7 skew is key. G7 has been leading the market. If we look at the graph below, we can see this.
• G7 skew and SPX have moved together. We begin o see some hedging in big7 stocks after PPI and ahead of Nada. This can lead SPX lower.
• See the graph below.
• https://imgur.com/a/YQdwnXU

DATA LEDE:

• RBA MEETING MINUTES:
• Board considered the case for 25bps hike or to hold steady. Said case to hold steady was stronger, given balanced risks to outlook.
• Board needs more time to gain confidence in inflation coming back to target, even though data is more encouraging and led the Board to hold.
• Said not ruling out another hike in rates.
• Said evne if they hike, they would be able to pivot to cuts if necessary.
• Said goods inflation was encouraging, but service inflation as too high.
  
• China Keeps 1 Year loan prime rate at 3.45%, vs expectations of a cut to 3.3% in order to stimulate the economy.
  
• China cuts the 5 year loan prime rate by more than expected, from 4.2% to 3.95%, vs expectations to cut to 4.05%
  
• This cut to 5 year lending rate was the most on record. The 5 year lending rate is also used as the mortgage reference rate.
  
• AS such, the bid is aimed to support the property market.
  
• EURO Area Current Account comes more than expected, at nearly 32B, vs expectations of 20.3B.
  
• EURO NEGOTIATED WAGES: - this was a key release for Euro:
  
• ECB says Euro area negotiated wage growth ticked down for Q4 to 4.5% from 4.7% in Q3.
  
• We see this below:
  
• https://imgur.com/a/sAsjSde
  
• This points to a weakening labour market, and is supportive of a lower inflation rate and more dovish ECB.
  
• This was of focus as The ECB has singled out wages as the single biggest risk to its 1-1/2 year crusade against inflation, in which it raised key interest rates to record highs.
  
• However, limited impact, German bonds down just 2 basis points.
  
• US CB leading Index: Expected to come at -0.3% MOM
  

LEVELS WILL BE POSTED IN A SEPARATE POST ON TRADINGEDGE
MARKETS:

• SPX: On Friday, tested 5000 after PPI came hot, then recovered to 5039, before paring all gains back to 5k level. Yesterday, was flat around 5k as market closed. This morning, fell back to 4980 as European market opened.
• NDX: Fell to 17,650 after PPI before recovering higher, then pared gains and closed Friday at 17,650 again. 17,700 was the key level. In premarket, fell back to 17,590.
• DJI: Trading at 38,500.
• HKG50: Opened lower despite cut to 5 year rates. Then moved higher to 16300. Up 0.5%. The cut of the 5 year rate is bullish, but market didn’t push up singifncalty from it. No real impact in Chiense FX market.
• CHINA50: Opened lower then moved higher.
• Ger40: Came down to 17018 when market opened, continues to trade flat just above 17k, as traders hedge that key level.
• Japan flattish but still near record highs.
• Iron Ore futures slump 5% on China demand concerns, despite cut in 5 year rate.
• OIL moved slightly higher initially as Houthi group strikes shipping vessels in Red Sea this morning. Now down slightly, at 77.62 as USD moved higher. Impact from Red Sea attacks has been minimal from the start and that’s why the initial price action didn’t hold.
• GOLD: Cans ee on the daily chart that it found support at 2000, and is now higher again in premarket. Trying to recover back. Next upside target is 2065.
• Bond yields slightly lower this morning.

FOREX:

• AUD is higher after comments from RBA minutes: In particular, RBA said that they are not ruling out another hike in rates.
• EUR was slightly higher,
• GBP slightly lower, but following DXY. This comes despite Bailey’s fairly hawkish comments as he reiterated the BoE is looking for more sustained progress on inflation.
• Yen moves lower, despite growing speculation of impending intervention.
• DXY trades near 104 level.
• GBPUSD just about holding onto 1.26 level.
• EURUSD higher to 1.08. AUDUSD moves higher to 0.656 following RBA minutes

INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH:

• Goldman Sachs say that speculators are very crowded in calls. They argue that this is the most lopsided and aggressive exposure we’ve seen since early 2021.
• https://imgur.com/a/22S9jct
• ING say that as US data remains supportive, they expect DXY to remains strong in near term, but to trade a range from 104 to 105.
• Bloomberg say that US stocks have thus far ignored rising treasury yields, which have responded to policy expectations, but stocks haven’t. We see this below, as bond yields have risen back to rates comparable to when the SPX was trading at around 4600.
• https://imgur.com/a/c4V2V3Y
• I add my own analysis and comparison to highlight this divergence between the pricing of bond yields and SPX here:
• https://imgur.com/a/YaAjBab
• Citigroup said they see $3k Gold possible by 2025. Citi also said they potentially see oil at 100 by 2025 too.

EARNINGS:
WALMART:

• WMT to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3B in a bid to grow its ad business. Very strong comparable numbers. Sales guidance was strong, and raises dividend.
• EPS of 1.80 beat estimates by 9%. Came in up 5% YOY
• Revenue of 174B was up 6% YOY, beat estimates by 1.6%
• US comparable sales was up 3.9%, ahead of expectations or it to be up 3.2%
• Walmart only US stores comparable sales was up 4% vs estimates of up 3.12%
• Sales club Comparable sales was up 3.1%, better than expectations of up 2.99%
• Strong comparable numbers across the board - US based, Walmart stores and Sams Club.
• Even US ecommerce sales beat, up 17%, better than the 15.5% expectation.
• Adjusted operating income beat expectations by 7%
• 2025 Guidance:
• EPS of 6.7-7.12, missed by 2.6%
• Sales guidance for up3-4%

HD:

• Sales declined by 3% YOY, although it did beat Wall Street expectations for current quarter.
• Sales growth for full year came in below expectations. Also said they see comparable sales decline by 1%. This is why they re down in premarket.
• EPS came at 2.82, beating expectations by 1.8%
• Revenue of 34.8B beat by 0.4%
• Comparables came in -3.5% better than the -3.6% expected.
• BAD GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR :
• Sees comparable sales down 1% vs expectations of up 0.2%
• FY sales up 1% vs expectations of 1.5%
• Said that they are seeing a chance to return to growth now. Said market is on tis way to normal demand conditions, pressures from 2023 are receding.
• Said therefore that sales should be up 1% in 2024. That is however slightly lower than the 1.6% expected by analysts.
• HD said they will open about 12 new stores.
• Said customers are still putting off big projects, especially the large scale products that require loans, due to high borrowing costs.
• However, he said sales were quite consistent.
• January saw a bit of a decline due to colder and wetter conditions. However, he said this doesnt have an impact on guidance for the year.
• Average ticket price dropped to 88.87 from 90.05 last year, due to consumer affordability.

MAG 7 News:

• AAPL - EU will hit Apple with first ever fine, in 500M Euro penalty over music streaming. Reportedly broke laws over access to its music streaming services.
• AAPL - yesterday, Phillip Securities downgraded to neutral from accumulate. Said Price target was 194, and cited valuation as reason for downgrade. Expects services to continue to be main growth.
• TSLA - downgraded to neutral from Accumulate by Phillip Securities. Said near term outlook looks quite bleak. Price target 175.
• NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 835 from 800 ahead of earnings. Said remains Long term bullish on AI strategy, and moat. But said believes overall market expectations have risen a lot, and momentum therefore will peak.
• NVDA - Baird raises price target to 1050 from 750.
• NVDA - down 2% in premarket on profit taking ahead of earnings.
• Options for NVDA still look optimistic, calls above 1k are still keeping significant open interest.
• TSLA 0- down in premarket, EU January EV car registrations down 42% MOM, also
• Tesla's stock move comes after rival Xpeng, which is in a price war with its U.S. peer in China, warned of intense competition in the electric vehicle sector that could end in a "bloodbath. Xpeng also hiring 4k more people for AI.
• TESLA BACK BELOW 200.
• MSFT - will invest 2.1B in Spain in next 2 years to expand Ai and cloud infrastructure in the country.
• MSFT - will help train 2 million people in India with Ai skills, stepping up its commitment to India, according to CEo.

COMPANY SPECIFIC NEWS:

• Some healthcare stocks like BSX being dragged up by MDT earnings
• NVO - Can move other healthcare stocks focusing on Obesity drugs - ozempic is apparently taking off significantly in China, world’s largest obese population. But there is regulation there so some is being sold on black market.
• GS - Goldman Boosts Solomon’s pay 24% even after firms profits fall 24%.
• KEYS - key sight demonstrates 6G neural receiver design flow in collaboration with India at Mobile world Congress in 2024.
• SPOT - Apple is reportedly testing an integration, that would allow users to import playlists from Spotify
• INTC - Climbs on Report that US is considering more than $10B in subsidies. It was trading near the trend line before.
• GFS - up after US awards the company $1.5B for chip production.
• SABR - up on price correction after selling off 36% on earnings last week
• Barclays - after earnings, delivered a loss but said they would be focusing on cost cutting, and asset sales.
• SSRM down 14% as they provide further update on the Turkish mine incident. Turkey has cancelled SSR Mining Environmental permit after accident. Turkish authorities have suspended search and rescue activities.
• ARM lower with NVDA
• Bayer cuts its dividend by 95%, in effort to dig itself out of hole created from acquisition of Monsanto Co.
  
• COF - Capital one to buy Discover in all stock deal valued at $35B. Financial stocks can move on this.
  
• Reddit is reportedly selling user content to an unknown AI company in a $60 million deal before their IPO, per Bloomberg
  
• India’s Zee - pops 10% on report that the $10B merger with Sony is being revived.
  
• BABA - increases bets on overseas business. This includes their platforms like Aliexpress, Lazada, Daraz and Trendy. International business up 44% YOY, domestic business up just 2%
  
• SONY - will release a “pro” version of the Playstation 5 this year.
  
• XPEV - plans to hire 4000 people, and to invest in Ai as CEO warns that EV rivalry may end in “bloodbath”.
  
• VALE - targets more battery systems in its operations.
  
• BYD - launches new plug in hybrid sedan, with lower starting price.
  
• ROKU down 4% again, which is a continuation of earnings sell off.
  
• BE - is down on continuation fo earnigns sell off, despite BTIG reaffirming buy rating.
  
• RIO & VALE - down as iron ore down 5% today.
  
• Chinese stocks generally lower as market gives more surpressed reaction to the cutting of 5 year rate.
  
• ALK - up as price target raised to 51 from 44 by Deutsche Bank, raised to buy rom Hold. That gives 38% upside.
  
• LUV - raises as Bernstein upgrades to market perform. Also raised to buy rom Hold by Deutsche Bank
  
• FLR - up in premarket, but full year EPS expectations missed the target. Came at 2.75 at midpoint, missing expectations by 3.2%
  
• Lowe’s - down with HD.
  

OTHER NEWS:

• China new Year holiday traffic data was encouraging, we can see here that the new year holiday train travel has surged to 5 year highs. This suggests a strengthening consumer which is bullish. But these signs are not consistent yet so cannot conclude with certainty of improving China. It’s just positive signs.
• https://imgur.com/a/3mQN7Iv
• Saw today an article on Reuters that US asset managers are increasing positioning for China recovery.
• We are seeing existing home sales drop to lowest since 2008. This is a similar trend all over the world. People aren’t selling but would instead rather rent the home out.
• Goldman Sachs raises SPX price target to 5200 from 5100. Raised price target for 2nd time since December. Said Federal reserve wasn’t a primary driver in them raising forecasts. Said they raised it due to earnigns strength. Goldman are basically just chasing the price action.
• UBS meanwhile lifted their SPX target to 5,400. One of the highest amongst the banks.
• 44% of Americans can’t pay an unexpected $1k expense due to insufficient savings.
• Report that ozempic users are now cutting back on buying snacks.
• US office vacancies hit record high in Q4 2023, surpassing previous peaks from 1991 and 1986.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in a recession now on weak external demand, muted domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• A number of BOE officials are slated to give testimony infront of parliament today.
• BOE’s Governor Bailey’s Speech: - continues his usual tone of need more signs, don’t endorse current market expectations.
• Duration of monetary policy remains uncertain
• Economy show sign s of upside.
• Cutting rates is possible before inflation hits target.
• We don’t endorse market expectations of rate cuts, but its not unreasonable for market to think that.
• No central bank will tell you when they expect to cut.
• We need more signs of domestic progress.
• Deputy Governor, Broadbent: - hawkish
• Timing of monetary policy adjustment depends on economic data.
• Evidence doesn’t support rate cuts.
• BOE’s Greene: - Hawkish commentary
• Looking at areas of inflation persistence. Wages are an upside risk.
• There’s risk of cutting too fast.
• BOE’s Dhingra:
• Downside risks exist to UK economy
• Boe’s Pill last week: Quite hawkish and bearish comments.
• We have to wait several more months before we can be convinced that persistent inflation has gone. Till then we have to maintain interest rates. Wants to see more easing of wage pressures. There are still reasons for caution, including services inflation high are a concern.
• UK labour market is tight, but this is the result of weak supply, as much as it is strong demand.
• meanwhile, Fed’s Daly gave some dovish comments after hot PPI on Friday:
• Said doesnt agree that last leg of inflation will be the hardest, and said won’t wait until 2% before cutting rates. Said 3 CUTS IS A REASONABLE BASELINE FOR THE YEAR.
• Bostic further supported 3 cuts but hinted he was ready to wait a bit longer to cut if economy is performing.
• Israel Q4 GDP falls by 20% QOQ, much worse than expectations of -10%.
• Iran led Houthis targeted Belize flagged, British registered cargo vessel, Rubymar in Red Sea today. EU deploys more warships in response.
• China’s Wang Yi says he will collaborate with EU to uphold free trade and inclusive economic globalisation. Said China EU cooperation was important. This comes as Wang Yi meets with Spanish prime minister and foreign minister.
• Wang Yi also gave comments over weekend on Canada, saying that they should rebuild trust for win win cooperation. Said the 2 sides are not opponents.
• Japan’s Finance Minister, Suzuki, will skip G20 meeting in order to focus on budget talks at home. - Yen fell somewhat after this announcement, I guess as it signals urgency and worry.
• Meanwhile, Suzuki Said he was monitoring FX movement with urgency, and continues to communicate with other countries in case for FX intervention.
• Goldman Sachs expects the BOE to start cutting rates in June, vs prior forecasts of in May.
• Nintendo was down 9% on Monday, following reports that Switch 2 launch will be delayed.
• South Korea household credit rises 0.4% QOQ for quarter ending December.
• Chinese coast guard boards Tourist boat in Taiwan. Taiwan minister expressed concern over the incident’s impact on people’s emotions and security.
• Taiwan also said they detected 17 chinese military aircrafts near Taiwan on Monday.
• US plans to allow time for negotiations on US drafted UN Security Council resolution on Gaza.
• US is considering slapping sanctions on Chinese companies that it believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine - as per CNBC.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in recession due to weak external demand, weak domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• France say that their 2024 GDP growth forecast is 1%, and that they see that as reasonable and solid. This was lowered from 1.4%.
• France also announced 10b Euro spending cut across all ministries. Said that this was what state budget required.
• Said there will be no tax increases.
• Von Der Leyen will rund or a 2nd term as EU commission president.
• Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue cut by 40-50% due to Houthis attacks.
• Elon Musk’s first neural ink patient can control a computer mouse through thinking.
• Airbus says that competition from China’s Comac C919 will not rock the boat.

​

ANALYSIS:

• A quick look at USDJPY, so we have seen more talk emerge from Suzuki the finance minister and others around intervention. USDJPY is trading at that 150 level which tends to be consistent with intervention.
• As such, we are now seeing some divergence between risk reversal on USDJPY and current price action. Traders are expecting some intervention soon, and expect JPY to move higher, thus moving USDJPY back towards 148.
• https://imgur.com/a/UNefVQC
• Meanwhile, if we look at DXY specifically, we can see that the risk reversal continues to widen in its divergence from spot price. DXY moving higher in response to hot PPI and CPI, but traders continue to price dollar to fall in the medium term.
• We see with EURUSD that skew points higher. Open interest is building on 1.09, and traders continue to expect EURUSD to rise. We see this in premarket as Dollar fell, and whilst GBP fell EURUSD moved higher.

What do we see when we look at US premarket:

• So we saw a rebalance after OPEX on Friday. There are more put options developing. IV in OTM put options increased, a sign of increased hedging. NVDA skew points lower which is a sign of profit taking ahead of earnigns and we see this as NVDA is down 1% in premarket despite bullish price target from Baird.
• We are seeing more hedging then in SPX, but money flows remain near highs.
• https://imgur.com/a/SqVoPMb
• When we look at QQQ, we see skew is downward after Friday’s close, and block flows move lower. We may see some correction in Tech soon. It appears fundamentals are supporting this too, as we continue to see divergence between SPX and bond yields.
• 426 looks like support on QQQ.
• 440 is still the call resistance.
• IWM skew shows hedging after PPI data too.
• G7 skew is key. G7 has been leading the market. If we look at the graph below, we can see this.
• G7 skew and SPX have moved together. We begin o see some hedging in big7 stocks after PPI and ahead of Nada. This can lead SPX lower.
• See the graph below.
• https://imgur.com/a/YQdwnXU

DATA LEDE:

• RBA MEETING MINUTES:
• Board considered the case for 25bps hike or to hold steady. Said case to hold steady was stronger, given balanced risks to outlook.
• Board needs more time to gain confidence in inflation coming back to target, even though data is more encouraging and led the Board to hold.
• Said not ruling out another hike in rates.
• Said evne if they hike, they would be able to pivot to cuts if necessary.
• Said goods inflation was encouraging, but service inflation as too high.
  
• China Keeps 1 Year loan prime rate at 3.45%, vs expectations of a cut to 3.3% in order to stimulate the economy.
  
• China cuts the 5 year loan prime rate by more than expected, from 4.2% to 3.95%, vs expectations to cut to 4.05%
  
• This cut to 5 year lending rate was the most on record. The 5 year lending rate is also used as the mortgage reference rate.
  
• AS such, the bid is aimed to support the property market.
  
• EURO Area Current Account comes more than expected, at nearly 32B, vs expectations of 20.3B.
  
• EURO NEGOTIATED WAGES: - this was a key release for Euro:
  
• ECB says Euro area negotiated wage growth ticked down for Q4 to 4.5% from 4.7% in Q3.
  
• We see this below:
  
• https://imgur.com/a/sAsjSde
  
• This points to a weakening labour market, and is supportive of a lower inflation rate and more dovish ECB.
  
• This was of focus as The ECB has singled out wages as the single biggest risk to its 1-1/2 year crusade against inflation, in which it raised key interest rates to record highs.
  
• However, limited impact, German bonds down just 2 basis points.
  
• US CB leading Index: Expected to come at -0.3% MOM
  

LEVELS WILL BE POSTED IN A SEPARATE POST ON TRADINGEDGE
MARKETS:

• SPX: On Friday, tested 5000 after PPI came hot, then recovered to 5039, before paring all gains back to 5k level. Yesterday, was flat around 5k as market closed. This morning, fell back to 4980 as European market opened.
• NDX: Fell to 17,650 after PPI before recovering higher, then pared gains and closed Friday at 17,650 again. 17,700 was the key level. In premarket, fell back to 17,590.
• DJI: Trading at 38,500.
• HKG50: Opened lower despite cut to 5 year rates. Then moved higher to 16300. Up 0.5%. The cut of the 5 year rate is bullish, but market didn’t push up singifncalty from it. No real impact in Chiense FX market.
• CHINA50: Opened lower then moved higher.
• Ger40: Came down to 17018 when market opened, continues to trade flat just above 17k, as traders hedge that key level.
• Japan flattish but still near record highs.
• Iron Ore futures slump 5% on China demand concerns, despite cut in 5 year rate.
• OIL moved slightly higher initially as Houthi group strikes shipping vessels in Red Sea this morning. Now down slightly, at 77.62 as USD moved higher. Impact from Red Sea attacks has been minimal from the start and that’s why the initial price action didn’t hold.
• GOLD: Cans ee on the daily chart that it found support at 2000, and is now higher again in premarket. Trying to recover back. Next upside target is 2065.
• Bond yields slightly lower this morning.

FOREX:

• AUD is higher after comments from RBA minutes: In particular, RBA said that they are not ruling out another hike in rates.
• EUR was slightly higher,
• GBP slightly lower, but following DXY. This comes despite Bailey’s fairly hawkish comments as he reiterated the BoE is looking for more sustained progress on inflation.
• Yen moves lower, despite growing speculation of impending intervention.
• DXY trades near 104 level.
• GBPUSD just about holding onto 1.26 level.
• EURUSD higher to 1.08. AUDUSD moves higher to 0.656 following RBA minutes

INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH:

• Goldman Sachs say that speculators are very crowded in calls. They argue that this is the most lopsided and aggressive exposure we’ve seen since early 2021.
• https://imgur.com/a/22S9jct
• ING say that as US data remains supportive, they expect DXY to remains strong in near term, but to trade a range from 104 to 105.
• Bloomberg say that US stocks have thus far ignored rising treasury yields, which have responded to policy expectations, but stocks haven’t. We see this below, as bond yields have risen back to rates comparable to when the SPX was trading at around 4600.
• https://imgur.com/a/c4V2V3Y
• I add my own analysis and comparison to highlight this divergence between the pricing of bond yields and SPX here:
• https://imgur.com/a/YaAjBab
• Citigroup said they see $3k Gold possible by 2025. Citi also said they potentially see oil at 100 by 2025 too.

EARNINGS:
WALMART:

• WMT to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3B in a bid to grow its ad business. Very strong comparable numbers. Sales guidance was strong, and raises dividend.
• EPS of 1.80 beat estimates by 9%. Came in up 5% YOY
• Revenue of 174B was up 6% YOY, beat estimates by 1.6%
• US comparable sales was up 3.9%, ahead of expectations or it to be up 3.2%
• Walmart only US stores comparable sales was up 4% vs estimates of up 3.12%
• Sales club Comparable sales was up 3.1%, better than expectations of up 2.99%
• Strong comparable numbers across the board - US based, Walmart stores and Sams Club.
• Even US ecommerce sales beat, up 17%, better than the 15.5% expectation.
• Adjusted operating income beat expectations by 7%
• 2025 Guidance:
• EPS of 6.7-7.12, missed by 2.6%
• Sales guidance for up3-4%

HD:

• Sales declined by 3% YOY, although it did beat Wall Street expectations for current quarter.
• Sales growth for full year came in below expectations. Also said they see comparable sales decline by 1%. This is why they re down in premarket.
• EPS came at 2.82, beating expectations by 1.8%
• Revenue of 34.8B beat by 0.4%
• Comparables came in -3.5% better than the -3.6% expected.
• BAD GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR :
• Sees comparable sales down 1% vs expectations of up 0.2%
• FY sales up 1% vs expectations of 1.5%
• Said that they are seeing a chance to return to growth now. Said market is on tis way to normal demand conditions, pressures from 2023 are receding.
• Said therefore that sales should be up 1% in 2024. That is however slightly lower than the 1.6% expected by analysts.
• HD said they will open about 12 new stores.
• Said customers are still putting off big projects, especially the large scale products that require loans, due to high borrowing costs.
• However, he said sales were quite consistent.
• January saw a bit of a decline due to colder and wetter conditions. However, he said this doesnt have an impact on guidance for the year.
• Average ticket price dropped to 88.87 from 90.05 last year, due to consumer affordability.

MAG 7 News:

• AAPL - EU will hit Apple with first ever fine, in 500M Euro penalty over music streaming. Reportedly broke laws over access to its music streaming services.
• AAPL - yesterday, Phillip Securities downgraded to neutral from accumulate. Said Price target was 194, and cited valuation as reason for downgrade. Expects services to continue to be main growth.
• TSLA - downgraded to neutral from Accumulate by Phillip Securities. Said near term outlook looks quite bleak. Price target 175.
• NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 835 from 800 ahead of earnings. Said remains Long term bullish on AI strategy, and moat. But said believes overall market expectations have risen a lot, and momentum therefore will peak.
• NVDA - Baird raises price target to 1050 from 750.
• NVDA - down 2% in premarket on profit taking ahead of earnings.
• Options for NVDA still look optimistic, calls above 1k are still keeping significant open interest.
• TSLA 0- down in premarket, EU January EV car registrations down 42% MOM, also
• Tesla's stock move comes after rival Xpeng, which is in a price war with its U.S. peer in China, warned of intense competition in the electric vehicle sector that could end in a "bloodbath. Xpeng also hiring 4k more people for AI.
• TESLA BACK BELOW 200.
• MSFT - will invest 2.1B in Spain in next 2 years to expand Ai and cloud infrastructure in the country.
• MSFT - will help train 2 million people in India with Ai skills, stepping up its commitment to India, according to CEo.

COMPANY SPECIFIC NEWS:

• Some healthcare stocks like BSX being dragged up by MDT earnings
• NVO - Can move other healthcare stocks focusing on Obesity drugs - ozempic is apparently taking off significantly in China, world’s largest obese population. But there is regulation there so some is being sold on black market.
• GS - Goldman Boosts Solomon’s pay 24% even after firms profits fall 24%.
• KEYS - key sight demonstrates 6G neural receiver design flow in collaboration with India at Mobile world Congress in 2024.
• SPOT - Apple is reportedly testing an integration, that would allow users to import playlists from Spotify
• INTC - Climbs on Report that US is considering more than $10B in subsidies. It was trading near the trend line before.
• GFS - up after US awards the company $1.5B for chip production.
• SABR - up on price correction after selling off 36% on earnings last week
• Barclays - after earnings, delivered a loss but said they would be focusing on cost cutting, and asset sales.
• SSRM down 14% as they provide further update on the Turkish mine incident. Turkey has cancelled SSR Mining Environmental permit after accident. Turkish authorities have suspended search and rescue activities.
• ARM lower with NVDA
• Bayer cuts its dividend by 95%, in effort to dig itself out of hole created from acquisition of Monsanto Co.
  
• COF - Capital one to buy Discover in all stock deal valued at $35B. Financial stocks can move on this.
  
• Reddit is reportedly selling user content to an unknown AI company in a $60 million deal before their IPO, per Bloomberg
  
• India’s Zee - pops 10% on report that the $10B merger with Sony is being revived.
  
• BABA - increases bets on overseas business. This includes their platforms like Aliexpress, Lazada, Daraz and Trendy. International business up 44% YOY, domestic business up just 2%
  
• SONY - will release a “pro” version of the Playstation 5 this year.
  
• XPEV - plans to hire 4000 people, and to invest in Ai as CEO warns that EV rivalry may end in “bloodbath”.
  
• VALE - targets more battery systems in its operations.
  
• BYD - launches new plug in hybrid sedan, with lower starting price.
  
• ROKU down 4% again, which is a continuation of earnings sell off.
  
• BE - is down on continuation fo earnigns sell off, despite BTIG reaffirming buy rating.
  
• RIO & VALE - down as iron ore down 5% today.
  
• Chinese stocks generally lower as market gives more surpressed reaction to the cutting of 5 year rate.
  
• ALK - up as price target raised to 51 from 44 by Deutsche Bank, raised to buy rom Hold. That gives 38% upside.
  
• LUV - raises as Bernstein upgrades to market perform. Also raised to buy rom Hold by Deutsche Bank
  
• FLR - up in premarket, but full year EPS expectations missed the target. Came at 2.75 at midpoint, missing expectations by 3.2%
  
• Lowe’s - down with HD.
  

OTHER NEWS:

• China new Year holiday traffic data was encouraging, we can see here that the new year holiday train travel has surged to 5 year highs. This suggests a strengthening consumer which is bullish. But these signs are not consistent yet so cannot conclude with certainty of improving China. It’s just positive signs.
• https://imgur.com/a/3mQN7Iv
• Saw today an article on Reuters that US asset managers are increasing positioning for China recovery.
• We are seeing existing home sales drop to lowest since 2008. This is a similar trend all over the world. People aren’t selling but would instead rather rent the home out.
• Goldman Sachs raises SPX price target to 5200 from 5100. Raised price target for 2nd time since December. Said Federal reserve wasn’t a primary driver in them raising forecasts. Said they raised it due to earnigns strength. Goldman are basically just chasing the price action.
• UBS meanwhile lifted their SPX target to 5,400. One of the highest amongst the banks.
• 44% of Americans can’t pay an unexpected $1k expense due to insufficient savings.
• Report that ozempic users are now cutting back on buying snacks.
• US office vacancies hit record high in Q4 2023, surpassing previous peaks from 1991 and 1986.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in a recession now on weak external demand, muted domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• A number of BOE officials are slated to give testimony infront of parliament today.
• BOE’s Governor Bailey’s Speech: - continues his usual tone of need more signs, don’t endorse current market expectations.
• Duration of monetary policy remains uncertain
• Economy show sign s of upside.
• Cutting rates is possible before inflation hits target.
• We don’t endorse market expectations of rate cuts, but its not unreasonable for market to think that.
• No central bank will tell you when they expect to cut.
• We need more signs of domestic progress.
• Deputy Governor, Broadbent: - hawkish
• Timing of monetary policy adjustment depends on economic data.
• Evidence doesn’t support rate cuts.
• BOE’s Greene: - Hawkish commentary
• Looking at areas of inflation persistence. Wages are an upside risk.
• There’s risk of cutting too fast.
• BOE’s Dhingra:
• Downside risks exist to UK economy
• Boe’s Pill last week: Quite hawkish and bearish comments.
• We have to wait several more months before we can be convinced that persistent inflation has gone. Till then we have to maintain interest rates. Wants to see more easing of wage pressures. There are still reasons for caution, including services inflation high are a concern.
• UK labour market is tight, but this is the result of weak supply, as much as it is strong demand.
• meanwhile, Fed’s Daly gave some dovish comments after hot PPI on Friday:
• Said doesnt agree that last leg of inflation will be the hardest, and said won’t wait until 2% before cutting rates. Said 3 CUTS IS A REASONABLE BASELINE FOR THE YEAR.
• Bostic further supported 3 cuts but hinted he was ready to wait a bit longer to cut if economy is performing.
• Israel Q4 GDP falls by 20% QOQ, much worse than expectations of -10%.
• Iran led Houthis targeted Belize flagged, British registered cargo vessel, Rubymar in Red Sea today. EU deploys more warships in response.
• China’s Wang Yi says he will collaborate with EU to uphold free trade and inclusive economic globalisation. Said China EU cooperation was important. This comes as Wang Yi meets with Spanish prime minister and foreign minister.
• Wang Yi also gave comments over weekend on Canada, saying that they should rebuild trust for win win cooperation. Said the 2 sides are not opponents.
• Japan’s Finance Minister, Suzuki, will skip G20 meeting in order to focus on budget talks at home. - Yen fell somewhat after this announcement, I guess as it signals urgency and worry.
• Meanwhile, Suzuki Said he was monitoring FX movement with urgency, and continues to communicate with other countries in case for FX intervention.
• Goldman Sachs expects the BOE to start cutting rates in June, vs prior forecasts of in May.
• Nintendo was down 9% on Monday, following reports that Switch 2 launch will be delayed.
• South Korea household credit rises 0.4% QOQ for quarter ending December.
• Chinese coast guard boards Tourist boat in Taiwan. Taiwan minister expressed concern over the incident’s impact on people’s emotions and security.
• Taiwan also said they detected 17 chinese military aircrafts near Taiwan on Monday.
• US plans to allow time for negotiations on US drafted UN Security Council resolution on Gaza.
• US is considering slapping sanctions on Chinese companies that it believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine - as per CNBC.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in recession due to weak external demand, weak domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• France say that their 2024 GDP growth forecast is 1%, and that they see that as reasonable and solid. This was lowered from 1.4%.
• France also announced 10b Euro spending cut across all ministries. Said that this was what state budget required.
• Said there will be no tax increases.
• Von Der Leyen will rund or a 2nd term as EU commission president.
• Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue cut by 40-50% due to Houthis attacks.
• Elon Musk’s first neural ink patient can control a computer mouse through thinking.
• Airbus says that competition from China’s Comac C919 will not rock the boat.

​

ANALYSIS:

• A quick look at USDJPY, so we have seen more talk emerge from Suzuki the finance minister and others around intervention. USDJPY is trading at that 150 level which tends to be consistent with intervention.
• As such, we are now seeing some divergence between risk reversal on USDJPY and current price action. Traders are expecting some intervention soon, and expect JPY to move higher, thus moving USDJPY back towards 148.
• https://imgur.com/a/UNefVQC
• Meanwhile, if we look at DXY specifically, we can see that the risk reversal continues to widen in its divergence from spot price. DXY moving higher in response to hot PPI and CPI, but traders continue to price dollar to fall in the medium term.
• We see with EURUSD that skew points higher. Open interest is building on 1.09, and traders continue to expect EURUSD to rise. We see this in premarket as Dollar fell, and whilst GBP fell EURUSD moved higher.

What do we see when we look at US premarket:

• So we saw a rebalance after OPEX on Friday. There are more put options developing. IV in OTM put options increased, a sign of increased hedging. NVDA skew points lower which is a sign of profit taking ahead of earnigns and we see this as NVDA is down 1% in premarket despite bullish price target from Baird.
• We are seeing more hedging then in SPX, but money flows remain near highs.
• https://imgur.com/a/SqVoPMb
• When we look at QQQ, we see skew is downward after Friday’s close, and block flows move lower. We may see some correction in Tech soon. It appears fundamentals are supporting this too, as we continue to see divergence between SPX and bond yields.
• 426 looks like support on QQQ.
• 440 is still the call resistance.
• IWM skew shows hedging after PPI data too.
• G7 skew is key. G7 has been leading the market. If we look at the graph below, we can see this.
• G7 skew and SPX have moved together. We begin o see some hedging in big7 stocks after PPI and ahead of Nada. This can lead SPX lower.
• See the graph below.
• https://imgur.com/a/YQdwnXU

DATA LEDE:

• RBA MEETING MINUTES:
• Board considered the case for 25bps hike or to hold steady. Said case to hold steady was stronger, given balanced risks to outlook.
• Board needs more time to gain confidence in inflation coming back to target, even though data is more encouraging and led the Board to hold.
• Said not ruling out another hike in rates.
• Said evne if they hike, they would be able to pivot to cuts if necessary.
• Said goods inflation was encouraging, but service inflation as too high.
  
• China Keeps 1 Year loan prime rate at 3.45%, vs expectations of a cut to 3.3% in order to stimulate the economy.
  
• China cuts the 5 year loan prime rate by more than expected, from 4.2% to 3.95%, vs expectations to cut to 4.05%
  
• This cut to 5 year lending rate was the most on record. The 5 year lending rate is also used as the mortgage reference rate.
  
• AS such, the bid is aimed to support the property market.
  
• EURO Area Current Account comes more than expected, at nearly 32B, vs expectations of 20.3B.
  
• EURO NEGOTIATED WAGES: - this was a key release for Euro:
  
• ECB says Euro area negotiated wage growth ticked down for Q4 to 4.5% from 4.7% in Q3.
  
• We see this below:
  
• https://imgur.com/a/sAsjSde
  
• This points to a weakening labour market, and is supportive of a lower inflation rate and more dovish ECB.
  
• This was of focus as The ECB has singled out wages as the single biggest risk to its 1-1/2 year crusade against inflation, in which it raised key interest rates to record highs.
  
• However, limited impact, German bonds down just 2 basis points.
  
• US CB leading Index: Expected to come at -0.3% MOM
  

LEVELS WILL BE POSTED IN A SEPARATE POST ON TRADINGEDGE
MARKETS:

• SPX: On Friday, tested 5000 after PPI came hot, then recovered to 5039, before paring all gains back to 5k level. Yesterday, was flat around 5k as market closed. This morning, fell back to 4980 as European market opened.
• NDX: Fell to 17,650 after PPI before recovering higher, then pared gains and closed Friday at 17,650 again. 17,700 was the key level. In premarket, fell back to 17,590.
• DJI: Trading at 38,500.
• HKG50: Opened lower despite cut to 5 year rates. Then moved higher to 16300. Up 0.5%. The cut of the 5 year rate is bullish, but market didn’t push up singifncalty from it. No real impact in Chiense FX market.
• CHINA50: Opened lower then moved higher.
• Ger40: Came down to 17018 when market opened, continues to trade flat just above 17k, as traders hedge that key level.
• Japan flattish but still near record highs.
• Iron Ore futures slump 5% on China demand concerns, despite cut in 5 year rate.
• OIL moved slightly higher initially as Houthi group strikes shipping vessels in Red Sea this morning. Now down slightly, at 77.62 as USD moved higher. Impact from Red Sea attacks has been minimal from the start and that’s why the initial price action didn’t hold.
• GOLD: Cans ee on the daily chart that it found support at 2000, and is now higher again in premarket. Trying to recover back. Next upside target is 2065.
• Bond yields slightly lower this morning.

FOREX:

• AUD is higher after comments from RBA minutes: In particular, RBA said that they are not ruling out another hike in rates.
• EUR was slightly higher,
• GBP slightly lower, but following DXY. This comes despite Bailey’s fairly hawkish comments as he reiterated the BoE is looking for more sustained progress on inflation.
• Yen moves lower, despite growing speculation of impending intervention.
• DXY trades near 104 level.
• GBPUSD just about holding onto 1.26 level.
• EURUSD higher to 1.08. AUDUSD moves higher to 0.656 following RBA minutes

INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH:

• Goldman Sachs say that speculators are very crowded in calls. They argue that this is the most lopsided and aggressive exposure we’ve seen since early 2021.
• https://imgur.com/a/22S9jct
• ING say that as US data remains supportive, they expect DXY to remains strong in near term, but to trade a range from 104 to 105.
• Bloomberg say that US stocks have thus far ignored rising treasury yields, which have responded to policy expectations, but stocks haven’t. We see this below, as bond yields have risen back to rates comparable to when the SPX was trading at around 4600.
• https://imgur.com/a/c4V2V3Y
• I add my own analysis and comparison to highlight this divergence between the pricing of bond yields and SPX here:
• https://imgur.com/a/YaAjBab
• Citigroup said they see $3k Gold possible by 2025. Citi also said they potentially see oil at 100 by 2025 too.

EARNINGS:
WALMART:

• WMT to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3B in a bid to grow its ad business. Very strong comparable numbers. Sales guidance was strong, and raises dividend.
• EPS of 1.80 beat estimates by 9%. Came in up 5% YOY
• Revenue of 174B was up 6% YOY, beat estimates by 1.6%
• US comparable sales was up 3.9%, ahead of expectations or it to be up 3.2%
• Walmart only US stores comparable sales was up 4% vs estimates of up 3.12%
• Sales club Comparable sales was up 3.1%, better than expectations of up 2.99%
• Strong comparable numbers across the board - US based, Walmart stores and Sams Club.
• Even US ecommerce sales beat, up 17%, better than the 15.5% expectation.
• Adjusted operating income beat expectations by 7%
• 2025 Guidance:
• EPS of 6.7-7.12, missed by 2.6%
• Sales guidance for up3-4%

HD:

• Sales declined by 3% YOY, although it did beat Wall Street expectations for current quarter.
• Sales growth for full year came in below expectations. Also said they see comparable sales decline by 1%. This is why they re down in premarket.
• EPS came at 2.82, beating expectations by 1.8%
• Revenue of 34.8B beat by 0.4%
• Comparables came in -3.5% better than the -3.6% expected.
• BAD GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR :
• Sees comparable sales down 1% vs expectations of up 0.2%
• FY sales up 1% vs expectations of 1.5%
• Said that they are seeing a chance to return to growth now. Said market is on tis way to normal demand conditions, pressures from 2023 are receding.
• Said therefore that sales should be up 1% in 2024. That is however slightly lower than the 1.6% expected by analysts.
• HD said they will open about 12 new stores.
• Said customers are still putting off big projects, especially the large scale products that require loans, due to high borrowing costs.
• However, he said sales were quite consistent.
• January saw a bit of a decline due to colder and wetter conditions. However, he said this doesnt have an impact on guidance for the year.
• Average ticket price dropped to 88.87 from 90.05 last year, due to consumer affordability.

MAG 7 News:

• AAPL - EU will hit Apple with first ever fine, in 500M Euro penalty over music streaming. Reportedly broke laws over access to its music streaming services.
• AAPL - yesterday, Phillip Securities downgraded to neutral from accumulate. Said Price target was 194, and cited valuation as reason for downgrade. Expects services to continue to be main growth.
• TSLA - downgraded to neutral from Accumulate by Phillip Securities. Said near term outlook looks quite bleak. Price target 175.
• NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 835 from 800 ahead of earnings. Said remains Long term bullish on AI strategy, and moat. But said believes overall market expectations have risen a lot, and momentum therefore will peak.
• NVDA - Baird raises price target to 1050 from 750.
• NVDA - down 2% in premarket on profit taking ahead of earnings.
• Options for NVDA still look optimistic, calls above 1k are still keeping significant open interest.
• TSLA 0- down in premarket, EU January EV car registrations down 42% MOM, also
• Tesla's stock move comes after rival Xpeng, which is in a price war with its U.S. peer in China, warned of intense competition in the electric vehicle sector that could end in a "bloodbath. Xpeng also hiring 4k more people for AI.
• TESLA BACK BELOW 200.
• MSFT - will invest 2.1B in Spain in next 2 years to expand Ai and cloud infrastructure in the country.
• MSFT - will help train 2 million people in India with Ai skills, stepping up its commitment to India, according to CEo.

COMPANY SPECIFIC NEWS:

• Some healthcare stocks like BSX being dragged up by MDT earnings
• NVO - Can move other healthcare stocks focusing on Obesity drugs - ozempic is apparently taking off significantly in China, world’s largest obese population. But there is regulation there so some is being sold on black market.
• GS - Goldman Boosts Solomon’s pay 24% even after firms profits fall 24%.
• KEYS - key sight demonstrates 6G neural receiver design flow in collaboration with India at Mobile world Congress in 2024.
• SPOT - Apple is reportedly testing an integration, that would allow users to import playlists from Spotify
• INTC - Climbs on Report that US is considering more than $10B in subsidies. It was trading near the trend line before.
• GFS - up after US awards the company $1.5B for chip production.
• SABR - up on price correction after selling off 36% on earnings last week
• Barclays - after earnings, delivered a loss but said they would be focusing on cost cutting, and asset sales.
• SSRM down 14% as they provide further update on the Turkish mine incident. Turkey has cancelled SSR Mining Environmental permit after accident. Turkish authorities have suspended search and rescue activities.
• ARM lower with NVDA
• Bayer cuts its dividend by 95%, in effort to dig itself out of hole created from acquisition of Monsanto Co.
  
• COF - Capital one to buy Discover in all stock deal valued at $35B. Financial stocks can move on this.
  
• Reddit is reportedly selling user content to an unknown AI company in a $60 million deal before their IPO, per Bloomberg
  
• India’s Zee - pops 10% on report that the $10B merger with Sony is being revived.
  
• BABA - increases bets on overseas business. This includes their platforms like Aliexpress, Lazada, Daraz and Trendy. International business up 44% YOY, domestic business up just 2%
  
• SONY - will release a “pro” version of the Playstation 5 this year.
  
• XPEV - plans to hire 4000 people, and to invest in Ai as CEO warns that EV rivalry may end in “bloodbath”.
  
• VALE - targets more battery systems in its operations.
  
• BYD - launches new plug in hybrid sedan, with lower starting price.
  
• ROKU down 4% again, which is a continuation of earnings sell off.
  
• BE - is down on continuation fo earnigns sell off, despite BTIG reaffirming buy rating.
  
• RIO & VALE - down as iron ore down 5% today.
  
• Chinese stocks generally lower as market gives more surpressed reaction to the cutting of 5 year rate.
  
• ALK - up as price target raised to 51 from 44 by Deutsche Bank, raised to buy rom Hold. That gives 38% upside.
  
• LUV - raises as Bernstein upgrades to market perform. Also raised to buy rom Hold by Deutsche Bank
  
• FLR - up in premarket, but full year EPS expectations missed the target. Came at 2.75 at midpoint, missing expectations by 3.2%
  
• Lowe’s - down with HD.
  

OTHER NEWS:

• China new Year holiday traffic data was encouraging, we can see here that the new year holiday train travel has surged to 5 year highs. This suggests a strengthening consumer which is bullish. But these signs are not consistent yet so cannot conclude with certainty of improving China. It’s just positive signs.
• https://imgur.com/a/3mQN7Iv
• Saw today an article on Reuters that US asset managers are increasing positioning for China recovery.
• We are seeing existing home sales drop to lowest since 2008. This is a similar trend all over the world. People aren’t selling but would instead rather rent the home out.
• Goldman Sachs raises SPX price target to 5200 from 5100. Raised price target for 2nd time since December. Said Federal reserve wasn’t a primary driver in them raising forecasts. Said they raised it due to earnigns strength. Goldman are basically just chasing the price action.
• UBS meanwhile lifted their SPX target to 5,400. One of the highest amongst the banks.
• 44% of Americans can’t pay an unexpected $1k expense due to insufficient savings.
• Report that ozempic users are now cutting back on buying snacks.
• US office vacancies hit record high in Q4 2023, surpassing previous peaks from 1991 and 1986.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in a recession now on weak external demand, muted domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• A number of BOE officials are slated to give testimony infront of parliament today.
• BOE’s Governor Bailey’s Speech: - continues his usual tone of need more signs, don’t endorse current market expectations.
• Duration of monetary policy remains uncertain
• Economy show sign s of upside.
• Cutting rates is possible before inflation hits target.
• We don’t endorse market expectations of rate cuts, but its not unreasonable for market to think that.
• No central bank will tell you when they expect to cut.
• We need more signs of domestic progress.
• Deputy Governor, Broadbent: - hawkish
• Timing of monetary policy adjustment depends on economic data.
• Evidence doesn’t support rate cuts.
• BOE’s Greene: - Hawkish commentary
• Looking at areas of inflation persistence. Wages are an upside risk.
• There’s risk of cutting too fast.
• BOE’s Dhingra:
• Downside risks exist to UK economy
• Boe’s Pill last week: Quite hawkish and bearish comments.
• We have to wait several more months before we can be convinced that persistent inflation has gone. Till then we have to maintain interest rates. Wants to see more easing of wage pressures. There are still reasons for caution, including services inflation high are a concern.
• UK labour market is tight, but this is the result of weak supply, as much as it is strong demand.
• meanwhile, Fed’s Daly gave some dovish comments after hot PPI on Friday:
• Said doesnt agree that last leg of inflation will be the hardest, and said won’t wait until 2% before cutting rates. Said 3 CUTS IS A REASONABLE BASELINE FOR THE YEAR.
• Bostic further supported 3 cuts but hinted he was ready to wait a bit longer to cut if economy is performing.
• Israel Q4 GDP falls by 20% QOQ, much worse than expectations of -10%.
• Iran led Houthis targeted Belize flagged, British registered cargo vessel, Rubymar in Red Sea today. EU deploys more warships in response.
• China’s Wang Yi says he will collaborate with EU to uphold free trade and inclusive economic globalisation. Said China EU cooperation was important. This comes as Wang Yi meets with Spanish prime minister and foreign minister.
• Wang Yi also gave comments over weekend on Canada, saying that they should rebuild trust for win win cooperation. Said the 2 sides are not opponents.
• Japan’s Finance Minister, Suzuki, will skip G20 meeting in order to focus on budget talks at home. - Yen fell somewhat after this announcement, I guess as it signals urgency and worry.
• Meanwhile, Suzuki Said he was monitoring FX movement with urgency, and continues to communicate with other countries in case for FX intervention.
• Goldman Sachs expects the BOE to start cutting rates in June, vs prior forecasts of in May.
• Nintendo was down 9% on Monday, following reports that Switch 2 launch will be delayed.
• South Korea household credit rises 0.4% QOQ for quarter ending December.
• Chinese coast guard boards Tourist boat in Taiwan. Taiwan minister expressed concern over the incident’s impact on people’s emotions and security.
• Taiwan also said they detected 17 chinese military aircrafts near Taiwan on Monday.
• US plans to allow time for negotiations on US drafted UN Security Council resolution on Gaza.
• US is considering slapping sanctions on Chinese companies that it believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine - as per CNBC.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in recession due to weak external demand, weak domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• France say that their 2024 GDP growth forecast is 1%, and that they see that as reasonable and solid. This was lowered from 1.4%.
• France also announced 10b Euro spending cut across all ministries. Said that this was what state budget required.
• Said there will be no tax increases.
• Von Der Leyen will rund or a 2nd term as EU commission president.
• Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue cut by 40-50% due to Houthis attacks.
• Elon Musk’s first neural ink patient can control a computer mouse through thinking.
• Airbus says that competition from China’s Comac C919 will not rock the boat.

​

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ANALYSIS:

• A quick look at USDJPY, so we have seen more talk emerge from Suzuki the finance minister and others around intervention. USDJPY is trading at that 150 level which tends to be consistent with intervention.
• As such, we are now seeing some divergence between risk reversal on USDJPY and current price action. Traders are expecting some intervention soon, and expect JPY to move higher, thus moving USDJPY back towards 148.
• https://imgur.com/a/UNefVQC
• Meanwhile, if we look at DXY specifically, we can see that the risk reversal continues to widen in its divergence from spot price. DXY moving higher in response to hot PPI and CPI, but traders continue to price dollar to fall in the medium term.
• We see with EURUSD that skew points higher. Open interest is building on 1.09, and traders continue to expect EURUSD to rise. We see this in premarket as Dollar fell, and whilst GBP fell EURUSD moved higher.

What do we see when we look at US premarket:

• So we saw a rebalance after OPEX on Friday. There are more put options developing. IV in OTM put options increased, a sign of increased hedging. NVDA skew points lower which is a sign of profit taking ahead of earnigns and we see this as NVDA is down 1% in premarket despite bullish price target from Baird.
• We are seeing more hedging then in SPX, but money flows remain near highs.
• https://imgur.com/a/SqVoPMb
• When we look at QQQ, we see skew is downward after Friday’s close, and block flows move lower. We may see some correction in Tech soon. It appears fundamentals are supporting this too, as we continue to see divergence between SPX and bond yields.
• 426 looks like support on QQQ.
• 440 is still the call resistance.
• IWM skew shows hedging after PPI data too.
• G7 skew is key. G7 has been leading the market. If we look at the graph below, we can see this.
• G7 skew and SPX have moved together. We begin o see some hedging in big7 stocks after PPI and ahead of Nada. This can lead SPX lower.
• See the graph below.
• https://imgur.com/a/YQdwnXU

DATA LEDE:

• RBA MEETING MINUTES:
• Board considered the case for 25bps hike or to hold steady. Said case to hold steady was stronger, given balanced risks to outlook.
• Board needs more time to gain confidence in inflation coming back to target, even though data is more encouraging and led the Board to hold.
• Said not ruling out another hike in rates.
• Said evne if they hike, they would be able to pivot to cuts if necessary.
• Said goods inflation was encouraging, but service inflation as too high.
  
• China Keeps 1 Year loan prime rate at 3.45%, vs expectations of a cut to 3.3% in order to stimulate the economy.
  
• China cuts the 5 year loan prime rate by more than expected, from 4.2% to 3.95%, vs expectations to cut to 4.05%
  
• This cut to 5 year lending rate was the most on record. The 5 year lending rate is also used as the mortgage reference rate.
  
• AS such, the bid is aimed to support the property market.
  
• EURO Area Current Account comes more than expected, at nearly 32B, vs expectations of 20.3B.
  
• EURO NEGOTIATED WAGES: - this was a key release for Euro:
  
• ECB says Euro area negotiated wage growth ticked down for Q4 to 4.5% from 4.7% in Q3.
  
• We see this below:
  
• https://imgur.com/a/sAsjSde
  
• This points to a weakening labour market, and is supportive of a lower inflation rate and more dovish ECB.
  
• This was of focus as The ECB has singled out wages as the single biggest risk to its 1-1/2 year crusade against inflation, in which it raised key interest rates to record highs.
  
• However, limited impact, German bonds down just 2 basis points.
  
• US CB leading Index: Expected to come at -0.3% MOM
  

LEVELS WILL BE POSTED IN A SEPARATE POST ON TRADINGEDGE
MARKETS:

• SPX: On Friday, tested 5000 after PPI came hot, then recovered to 5039, before paring all gains back to 5k level. Yesterday, was flat around 5k as market closed. This morning, fell back to 4980 as European market opened.
• NDX: Fell to 17,650 after PPI before recovering higher, then pared gains and closed Friday at 17,650 again. 17,700 was the key level. In premarket, fell back to 17,590.
• DJI: Trading at 38,500.
• HKG50: Opened lower despite cut to 5 year rates. Then moved higher to 16300. Up 0.5%. The cut of the 5 year rate is bullish, but market didn’t push up singifncalty from it. No real impact in Chiense FX market.
• CHINA50: Opened lower then moved higher.
• Ger40: Came down to 17018 when market opened, continues to trade flat just above 17k, as traders hedge that key level.
• Japan flattish but still near record highs.
• Iron Ore futures slump 5% on China demand concerns, despite cut in 5 year rate.
• OIL moved slightly higher initially as Houthi group strikes shipping vessels in Red Sea this morning. Now down slightly, at 77.62 as USD moved higher. Impact from Red Sea attacks has been minimal from the start and that’s why the initial price action didn’t hold.
• GOLD: Cans ee on the daily chart that it found support at 2000, and is now higher again in premarket. Trying to recover back. Next upside target is 2065.
• Bond yields slightly lower this morning.

FOREX:

• AUD is higher after comments from RBA minutes: In particular, RBA said that they are not ruling out another hike in rates.
• EUR was slightly higher,
• GBP slightly lower, but following DXY. This comes despite Bailey’s fairly hawkish comments as he reiterated the BoE is looking for more sustained progress on inflation.
• Yen moves lower, despite growing speculation of impending intervention.
• DXY trades near 104 level.
• GBPUSD just about holding onto 1.26 level.
• EURUSD higher to 1.08. AUDUSD moves higher to 0.656 following RBA minutes

INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH:

• Goldman Sachs say that speculators are very crowded in calls. They argue that this is the most lopsided and aggressive exposure we’ve seen since early 2021.
• https://imgur.com/a/22S9jct
• ING say that as US data remains supportive, they expect DXY to remains strong in near term, but to trade a range from 104 to 105.
• Bloomberg say that US stocks have thus far ignored rising treasury yields, which have responded to policy expectations, but stocks haven’t. We see this below, as bond yields have risen back to rates comparable to when the SPX was trading at around 4600.
• https://imgur.com/a/c4V2V3Y
• I add my own analysis and comparison to highlight this divergence between the pricing of bond yields and SPX here:
• https://imgur.com/a/YaAjBab
• Citigroup said they see $3k Gold possible by 2025. Citi also said they potentially see oil at 100 by 2025 too.

EARNINGS:
WALMART:

• WMT to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3B in a bid to grow its ad business. Very strong comparable numbers. Sales guidance was strong, and raises dividend.
• EPS of 1.80 beat estimates by 9%. Came in up 5% YOY
• Revenue of 174B was up 6% YOY, beat estimates by 1.6%
• US comparable sales was up 3.9%, ahead of expectations or it to be up 3.2%
• Walmart only US stores comparable sales was up 4% vs estimates of up 3.12%
• Sales club Comparable sales was up 3.1%, better than expectations of up 2.99%
• Strong comparable numbers across the board - US based, Walmart stores and Sams Club.
• Even US ecommerce sales beat, up 17%, better than the 15.5% expectation.
• Adjusted operating income beat expectations by 7%
• 2025 Guidance:
• EPS of 6.7-7.12, missed by 2.6%
• Sales guidance for up3-4%

HD:

• Sales declined by 3% YOY, although it did beat Wall Street expectations for current quarter.
• Sales growth for full year came in below expectations. Also said they see comparable sales decline by 1%. This is why they re down in premarket.
• EPS came at 2.82, beating expectations by 1.8%
• Revenue of 34.8B beat by 0.4%
• Comparables came in -3.5% better than the -3.6% expected.
• BAD GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR :
• Sees comparable sales down 1% vs expectations of up 0.2%
• FY sales up 1% vs expectations of 1.5%
• Said that they are seeing a chance to return to growth now. Said market is on tis way to normal demand conditions, pressures from 2023 are receding.
• Said therefore that sales should be up 1% in 2024. That is however slightly lower than the 1.6% expected by analysts.
• HD said they will open about 12 new stores.
• Said customers are still putting off big projects, especially the large scale products that require loans, due to high borrowing costs.
• However, he said sales were quite consistent.
• January saw a bit of a decline due to colder and wetter conditions. However, he said this doesnt have an impact on guidance for the year.
• Average ticket price dropped to 88.87 from 90.05 last year, due to consumer affordability.

MAG 7 News:

• AAPL - EU will hit Apple with first ever fine, in 500M Euro penalty over music streaming. Reportedly broke laws over access to its music streaming services.
• AAPL - yesterday, Phillip Securities downgraded to neutral from accumulate. Said Price target was 194, and cited valuation as reason for downgrade. Expects services to continue to be main growth.
• TSLA - downgraded to neutral from Accumulate by Phillip Securities. Said near term outlook looks quite bleak. Price target 175.
• NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 835 from 800 ahead of earnings. Said remains Long term bullish on AI strategy, and moat. But said believes overall market expectations have risen a lot, and momentum therefore will peak.
• NVDA - Baird raises price target to 1050 from 750.
• NVDA - down 2% in premarket on profit taking ahead of earnings.
• Options for NVDA still look optimistic, calls above 1k are still keeping significant open interest.
• TSLA 0- down in premarket, EU January EV car registrations down 42% MOM, also
• Tesla's stock move comes after rival Xpeng, which is in a price war with its U.S. peer in China, warned of intense competition in the electric vehicle sector that could end in a "bloodbath. Xpeng also hiring 4k more people for AI.
• TESLA BACK BELOW 200.
• MSFT - will invest 2.1B in Spain in next 2 years to expand Ai and cloud infrastructure in the country.
• MSFT - will help train 2 million people in India with Ai skills, stepping up its commitment to India, according to CEo.

COMPANY SPECIFIC NEWS:

• Some healthcare stocks like BSX being dragged up by MDT earnings
• NVO - Can move other healthcare stocks focusing on Obesity drugs - ozempic is apparently taking off significantly in China, world’s largest obese population. But there is regulation there so some is being sold on black market.
• GS - Goldman Boosts Solomon’s pay 24% even after firms profits fall 24%.
• KEYS - key sight demonstrates 6G neural receiver design flow in collaboration with India at Mobile world Congress in 2024.
• SPOT - Apple is reportedly testing an integration, that would allow users to import playlists from Spotify
• INTC - Climbs on Report that US is considering more than $10B in subsidies. It was trading near the trend line before.
• GFS - up after US awards the company $1.5B for chip production.
• SABR - up on price correction after selling off 36% on earnings last week
• Barclays - after earnings, delivered a loss but said they would be focusing on cost cutting, and asset sales.
• SSRM down 14% as they provide further update on the Turkish mine incident. Turkey has cancelled SSR Mining Environmental permit after accident. Turkish authorities have suspended search and rescue activities.
• ARM lower with NVDA
• Bayer cuts its dividend by 95%, in effort to dig itself out of hole created from acquisition of Monsanto Co.
  
• COF - Capital one to buy Discover in all stock deal valued at $35B. Financial stocks can move on this.
  
• Reddit is reportedly selling user content to an unknown AI company in a $60 million deal before their IPO, per Bloomberg
  
• India’s Zee - pops 10% on report that the $10B merger with Sony is being revived.
  
• BABA - increases bets on overseas business. This includes their platforms like Aliexpress, Lazada, Daraz and Trendy. International business up 44% YOY, domestic business up just 2%
  
• SONY - will release a “pro” version of the Playstation 5 this year.
  
• XPEV - plans to hire 4000 people, and to invest in Ai as CEO warns that EV rivalry may end in “bloodbath”.
  
• VALE - targets more battery systems in its operations.
  
• BYD - launches new plug in hybrid sedan, with lower starting price.
  
• ROKU down 4% again, which is a continuation of earnings sell off.
  
• BE - is down on continuation fo earnigns sell off, despite BTIG reaffirming buy rating.
  
• RIO & VALE - down as iron ore down 5% today.
  
• Chinese stocks generally lower as market gives more surpressed reaction to the cutting of 5 year rate.
  
• ALK - up as price target raised to 51 from 44 by Deutsche Bank, raised to buy rom Hold. That gives 38% upside.
  
• LUV - raises as Bernstein upgrades to market perform. Also raised to buy rom Hold by Deutsche Bank
  
• FLR - up in premarket, but full year EPS expectations missed the target. Came at 2.75 at midpoint, missing expectations by 3.2%
  
• Lowe’s - down with HD.
  

OTHER NEWS:

• China new Year holiday traffic data was encouraging, we can see here that the new year holiday train travel has surged to 5 year highs. This suggests a strengthening consumer which is bullish. But these signs are not consistent yet so cannot conclude with certainty of improving China. It’s just positive signs.
• https://imgur.com/a/3mQN7Iv
• Saw today an article on Reuters that US asset managers are increasing positioning for China recovery.
• We are seeing existing home sales drop to lowest since 2008. This is a similar trend all over the world. People aren’t selling but would instead rather rent the home out.
• Goldman Sachs raises SPX price target to 5200 from 5100. Raised price target for 2nd time since December. Said Federal reserve wasn’t a primary driver in them raising forecasts. Said they raised it due to earnigns strength. Goldman are basically just chasing the price action.
• UBS meanwhile lifted their SPX target to 5,400. One of the highest amongst the banks.
• 44% of Americans can’t pay an unexpected $1k expense due to insufficient savings.
• Report that ozempic users are now cutting back on buying snacks.
• US office vacancies hit record high in Q4 2023, surpassing previous peaks from 1991 and 1986.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in a recession now on weak external demand, muted domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• A number of BOE officials are slated to give testimony infront of parliament today.
• BOE’s Governor Bailey’s Speech: - continues his usual tone of need more signs, don’t endorse current market expectations.
• Duration of monetary policy remains uncertain
• Economy show sign s of upside.
• Cutting rates is possible before inflation hits target.
• We don’t endorse market expectations of rate cuts, but its not unreasonable for market to think that.
• No central bank will tell you when they expect to cut.
• We need more signs of domestic progress.
• Deputy Governor, Broadbent: - hawkish
• Timing of monetary policy adjustment depends on economic data.
• Evidence doesn’t support rate cuts.
• BOE’s Greene: - Hawkish commentary
• Looking at areas of inflation persistence. Wages are an upside risk.
• There’s risk of cutting too fast.
• BOE’s Dhingra:
• Downside risks exist to UK economy
• Boe’s Pill last week: Quite hawkish and bearish comments.
• We have to wait several more months before we can be convinced that persistent inflation has gone. Till then we have to maintain interest rates. Wants to see more easing of wage pressures. There are still reasons for caution, including services inflation high are a concern.
• UK labour market is tight, but this is the result of weak supply, as much as it is strong demand.
• meanwhile, Fed’s Daly gave some dovish comments after hot PPI on Friday:
• Said doesnt agree that last leg of inflation will be the hardest, and said won’t wait until 2% before cutting rates. Said 3 CUTS IS A REASONABLE BASELINE FOR THE YEAR.
• Bostic further supported 3 cuts but hinted he was ready to wait a bit longer to cut if economy is performing.
• Israel Q4 GDP falls by 20% QOQ, much worse than expectations of -10%.
• Iran led Houthis targeted Belize flagged, British registered cargo vessel, Rubymar in Red Sea today. EU deploys more warships in response.
• China’s Wang Yi says he will collaborate with EU to uphold free trade and inclusive economic globalisation. Said China EU cooperation was important. This comes as Wang Yi meets with Spanish prime minister and foreign minister.
• Wang Yi also gave comments over weekend on Canada, saying that they should rebuild trust for win win cooperation. Said the 2 sides are not opponents.
• Japan’s Finance Minister, Suzuki, will skip G20 meeting in order to focus on budget talks at home. - Yen fell somewhat after this announcement, I guess as it signals urgency and worry.
• Meanwhile, Suzuki Said he was monitoring FX movement with urgency, and continues to communicate with other countries in case for FX intervention.
• Goldman Sachs expects the BOE to start cutting rates in June, vs prior forecasts of in May.
• Nintendo was down 9% on Monday, following reports that Switch 2 launch will be delayed.
• South Korea household credit rises 0.4% QOQ for quarter ending December.
• Chinese coast guard boards Tourist boat in Taiwan. Taiwan minister expressed concern over the incident’s impact on people’s emotions and security.
• Taiwan also said they detected 17 chinese military aircrafts near Taiwan on Monday.
• US plans to allow time for negotiations on US drafted UN Security Council resolution on Gaza.
• US is considering slapping sanctions on Chinese companies that it believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine - as per CNBC.
• Biden speaks to Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to confirm he is confident of US commitment to continued support.
• Biden blamed congressional inaction for Russia’s capture of Eastern Ukrainian stronghold. This comes as Partisan disputes hold up the $60B aid for Ukraine. Biden not happy.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in recession due to weak external demand, weak domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• France say that their 2024 GDP growth forecast is 1%, and that they see that as reasonable and solid. This was lowered from 1.4%.
• France also announced 10b Euro spending cut across all ministries. Said that this was what state budget required.
• Said there will be no tax increases.
• Von Der Leyen will rund or a 2nd term as EU commission president.
• Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue cut by 40-50% due to Houthis attacks.
• Elon Musk’s first neural ink patient can control a computer mouse through thinking.
• Airbus says that competition from China’s Comac C919 will not rock the boat.

Please join Tradingedge if you want to see more content like this.

The stock market is back, and so are the daily rundowns. Please join Tradingedge to support more content like this.
ANALYSIS:

• A quick look at USDJPY, so we have seen more talk emerge from Suzuki the finance minister and others around intervention. USDJPY is trading at that 150 level which tends to be consistent with intervention.
• As such, we are now seeing some divergence between risk reversal on USDJPY and current price action. Traders are expecting some intervention soon, and expect JPY to move higher, thus moving USDJPY back towards 148.
• https://imgur.com/a/UNefVQC
• Meanwhile, if we look at DXY specifically, we can see that the risk reversal continues to widen in its divergence from spot price. DXY moving higher in response to hot PPI and CPI, but traders continue to price dollar to fall in the medium term.
• We see with EURUSD that skew points higher. Open interest is building on 1.09, and traders continue to expect EURUSD to rise. We see this in premarket as Dollar fell, and whilst GBP fell EURUSD moved higher.

What do we see when we look at US premarket:

• So we saw a rebalance after OPEX on Friday. There are more put options developing. IV in OTM put options increased, a sign of increased hedging. NVDA skew points lower which is a sign of profit taking ahead of earnigns and we see this as NVDA is down 1% in premarket despite bullish price target from Baird.
• We are seeing more hedging then in SPX, but money flows remain near highs.
• https://imgur.com/a/SqVoPMb
• When we look at QQQ, we see skew is downward after Friday’s close, and block flows move lower. We may see some correction in Tech soon. It appears fundamentals are supporting this too, as we continue to see divergence between SPX and bond yields.
• 426 looks like support on QQQ.
• 440 is still the call resistance.
• IWM skew shows hedging after PPI data too.
• G7 skew is key. G7 has been leading the market. If we look at the graph below, we can see this.
• G7 skew and SPX have moved together. We begin o see some hedging in big7 stocks after PPI and ahead of Nada. This can lead SPX lower.
• See the graph below.
• https://imgur.com/a/YQdwnXU

DATA LEDE:

• RBA MEETING MINUTES:
• Board considered the case for 25bps hike or to hold steady. Said case to hold steady was stronger, given balanced risks to outlook.
• Board needs more time to gain confidence in inflation coming back to target, even though data is more encouraging and led the Board to hold.
• Said not ruling out another hike in rates.
• Said evne if they hike, they would be able to pivot to cuts if necessary.
• Said goods inflation was encouraging, but service inflation as too high.
  
• China Keeps 1 Year loan prime rate at 3.45%, vs expectations of a cut to 3.3% in order to stimulate the economy.
  
• China cuts the 5 year loan prime rate by more than expected, from 4.2% to 3.95%, vs expectations to cut to 4.05%
  
• This cut to 5 year lending rate was the most on record. The 5 year lending rate is also used as the mortgage reference rate.
  
• AS such, the bid is aimed to support the property market.
  
• EURO Area Current Account comes more than expected, at nearly 32B, vs expectations of 20.3B.
  
• EURO NEGOTIATED WAGES: - this was a key release for Euro:
  
• ECB says Euro area negotiated wage growth ticked down for Q4 to 4.5% from 4.7% in Q3.
  
• We see this below:
  
• https://imgur.com/a/sAsjSde
  
• This points to a weakening labour market, and is supportive of a lower inflation rate and more dovish ECB.
  
• This was of focus as The ECB has singled out wages as the single biggest risk to its 1-1/2 year crusade against inflation, in which it raised key interest rates to record highs.
  
• However, limited impact, German bonds down just 2 basis points.
  
• US CB leading Index: Expected to come at -0.3% MOM
  

LEVELS WILL BE POSTED IN A SEPARATE POST ON TRADINGEDGE
MARKETS:

• SPX: On Friday, tested 5000 after PPI came hot, then recovered to 5039, before paring all gains back to 5k level. Yesterday, was flat around 5k as market closed. This morning, fell back to 4980 as European market opened.
• NDX: Fell to 17,650 after PPI before recovering higher, then pared gains and closed Friday at 17,650 again. 17,700 was the key level. In premarket, fell back to 17,590.
• DJI: Trading at 38,500.
• HKG50: Opened lower despite cut to 5 year rates. Then moved higher to 16300. Up 0.5%. The cut of the 5 year rate is bullish, but market didn’t push up singifncalty from it. No real impact in Chiense FX market.
• CHINA50: Opened lower then moved higher.
• Ger40: Came down to 17018 when market opened, continues to trade flat just above 17k, as traders hedge that key level.
• Japan flattish but still near record highs.
• Iron Ore futures slump 5% on China demand concerns, despite cut in 5 year rate.
• OIL moved slightly higher initially as Houthi group strikes shipping vessels in Red Sea this morning. Now down slightly, at 77.62 as USD moved higher. Impact from Red Sea attacks has been minimal from the start and that’s why the initial price action didn’t hold.
• GOLD: Cans ee on the daily chart that it found support at 2000, and is now higher again in premarket. Trying to recover back. Next upside target is 2065.
• Bond yields slightly lower this morning.

FOREX:

• AUD is higher after comments from RBA minutes: In particular, RBA said that they are not ruling out another hike in rates.
• EUR was slightly higher,
• GBP slightly lower, but following DXY. This comes despite Bailey’s fairly hawkish comments as he reiterated the BoE is looking for more sustained progress on inflation.
• Yen moves lower, despite growing speculation of impending intervention.
• DXY trades near 104 level.
• GBPUSD just about holding onto 1.26 level.
• EURUSD higher to 1.08. AUDUSD moves higher to 0.656 following RBA minutes

INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH:

• Goldman Sachs say that speculators are very crowded in calls. They argue that this is the most lopsided and aggressive exposure we’ve seen since early 2021.
• https://imgur.com/a/22S9jct
• ING say that as US data remains supportive, they expect DXY to remains strong in near term, but to trade a range from 104 to 105.
• Bloomberg say that US stocks have thus far ignored rising treasury yields, which have responded to policy expectations, but stocks haven’t. We see this below, as bond yields have risen back to rates comparable to when the SPX was trading at around 4600.
• https://imgur.com/a/c4V2V3Y
• I add my own analysis and comparison to highlight this divergence between the pricing of bond yields and SPX here:
• https://imgur.com/a/YaAjBab
• Citigroup said they see $3k Gold possible by 2025. Citi also said they potentially see oil at 100 by 2025 too.

EARNINGS:
WALMART:

• WMT to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3B in a bid to grow its ad business. Very strong comparable numbers. Sales guidance was strong, and raises dividend.
• EPS of 1.80 beat estimates by 9%. Came in up 5% YOY
• Revenue of 174B was up 6% YOY, beat estimates by 1.6%
• US comparable sales was up 3.9%, ahead of expectations or it to be up 3.2%
• Walmart only US stores comparable sales was up 4% vs estimates of up 3.12%
• Sales club Comparable sales was up 3.1%, better than expectations of up 2.99%
• Strong comparable numbers across the board - US based, Walmart stores and Sams Club.
• Even US ecommerce sales beat, up 17%, better than the 15.5% expectation.
• Adjusted operating income beat expectations by 7%
• 2025 Guidance:
• EPS of 6.7-7.12, missed by 2.6%
• Sales guidance for up3-4%

HD:

• Sales declined by 3% YOY, although it did beat Wall Street expectations for current quarter.
• Sales growth for full year came in below expectations. Also said they see comparable sales decline by 1%. This is why they re down in premarket.
• EPS came at 2.82, beating expectations by 1.8%
• Revenue of 34.8B beat by 0.4%
• Comparables came in -3.5% better than the -3.6% expected.
• BAD GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR :
• Sees comparable sales down 1% vs expectations of up 0.2%
• FY sales up 1% vs expectations of 1.5%
• Said that they are seeing a chance to return to growth now. Said market is on tis way to normal demand conditions, pressures from 2023 are receding.
• Said therefore that sales should be up 1% in 2024. That is however slightly lower than the 1.6% expected by analysts.
• HD said they will open about 12 new stores.
• Said customers are still putting off big projects, especially the large scale products that require loans, due to high borrowing costs.
• However, he said sales were quite consistent.
• January saw a bit of a decline due to colder and wetter conditions. However, he said this doesnt have an impact on guidance for the year.
• Average ticket price dropped to 88.87 from 90.05 last year, due to consumer affordability.

MAG 7 News:

• AAPL - EU will hit Apple with first ever fine, in 500M Euro penalty over music streaming. Reportedly broke laws over access to its music streaming services.
• AAPL - yesterday, Phillip Securities downgraded to neutral from accumulate. Said Price target was 194, and cited valuation as reason for downgrade. Expects services to continue to be main growth.
• TSLA - downgraded to neutral from Accumulate by Phillip Securities. Said near term outlook looks quite bleak. Price target 175.
• NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 835 from 800 ahead of earnings. Said remains Long term bullish on AI strategy, and moat. But said believes overall market expectations have risen a lot, and momentum therefore will peak.
• NVDA - Baird raises price target to 1050 from 750.
• NVDA - down 2% in premarket on profit taking ahead of earnings.
• Options for NVDA still look optimistic, calls above 1k are still keeping significant open interest.
• TSLA 0- down in premarket, EU January EV car registrations down 42% MOM, also
• Tesla's stock move comes after rival Xpeng, which is in a price war with its U.S. peer in China, warned of intense competition in the electric vehicle sector that could end in a "bloodbath. Xpeng also hiring 4k more people for AI.
• TESLA BACK BELOW 200.
• MSFT - will invest 2.1B in Spain in next 2 years to expand Ai and cloud infrastructure in the country.
• MSFT - will help train 2 million people in India with Ai skills, stepping up its commitment to India, according to CEo.

COMPANY SPECIFIC NEWS:

• Some healthcare stocks like BSX being dragged up by MDT earnings
• NVO - Can move other healthcare stocks focusing on Obesity drugs - ozempic is apparently taking off significantly in China, world’s largest obese population. But there is regulation there so some is being sold on black market.
• GS - Goldman Boosts Solomon’s pay 24% even after firms profits fall 24%.
• KEYS - key sight demonstrates 6G neural receiver design flow in collaboration with India at Mobile world Congress in 2024.
• SPOT - Apple is reportedly testing an integration, that would allow users to import playlists from Spotify
• INTC - Climbs on Report that US is considering more than $10B in subsidies. It was trading near the trend line before.
• GFS - up after US awards the company $1.5B for chip production.
• SABR - up on price correction after selling off 36% on earnings last week
• Barclays - after earnings, delivered a loss but said they would be focusing on cost cutting, and asset sales.
• SSRM down 14% as they provide further update on the Turkish mine incident. Turkey has cancelled SSR Mining Environmental permit after accident. Turkish authorities have suspended search and rescue activities.
• ARM lower with NVDA
• Bayer cuts its dividend by 95%, in effort to dig itself out of hole created from acquisition of Monsanto Co.
  
• COF - Capital one to buy Discover in all stock deal valued at $35B. Financial stocks can move on this.
  
• Reddit is reportedly selling user content to an unknown AI company in a $60 million deal before their IPO, per Bloomberg
  
• India’s Zee - pops 10% on report that the $10B merger with Sony is being revived.
  
• BABA - increases bets on overseas business. This includes their platforms like Aliexpress, Lazada, Daraz and Trendy. International business up 44% YOY, domestic business up just 2%
  
• SONY - will release a “pro” version of the Playstation 5 this year.
  
• XPEV - plans to hire 4000 people, and to invest in Ai as CEO warns that EV rivalry may end in “bloodbath”.
  
• VALE - targets more battery systems in its operations.
  
• BYD - launches new plug in hybrid sedan, with lower starting price.
  
• ROKU down 4% again, which is a continuation of earnings sell off.
  
• BE - is down on continuation fo earnigns sell off, despite BTIG reaffirming buy rating.
  
• RIO & VALE - down as iron ore down 5% today.
  
• Chinese stocks generally lower as market gives more surpressed reaction to the cutting of 5 year rate.
  
• ALK - up as price target raised to 51 from 44 by Deutsche Bank, raised to buy rom Hold. That gives 38% upside.
  
• LUV - raises as Bernstein upgrades to market perform. Also raised to buy rom Hold by Deutsche Bank
  
• FLR - up in premarket, but full year EPS expectations missed the target. Came at 2.75 at midpoint, missing expectations by 3.2%
  
• Lowe’s - down with HD.
  

OTHER NEWS:

• China new Year holiday traffic data was encouraging, we can see here that the new year holiday train travel has surged to 5 year highs. This suggests a strengthening consumer which is bullish. But these signs are not consistent yet so cannot conclude with certainty of improving China. It’s just positive signs.
• https://imgur.com/a/3mQN7Iv
• Saw today an article on Reuters that US asset managers are increasing positioning for China recovery.
• We are seeing existing home sales drop to lowest since 2008. This is a similar trend all over the world. People aren’t selling but would instead rather rent the home out.
• Goldman Sachs raises SPX price target to 5200 from 5100. Raised price target for 2nd time since December. Said Federal reserve wasn’t a primary driver in them raising forecasts. Said they raised it due to earnigns strength. Goldman are basically just chasing the price action.
• UBS meanwhile lifted their SPX target to 5,400. One of the highest amongst the banks.
• 44% of Americans can’t pay an unexpected $1k expense due to insufficient savings.
• Report that ozempic users are now cutting back on buying snacks.
• US office vacancies hit record high in Q4 2023, surpassing previous peaks from 1991 and 1986.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in a recession now on weak external demand, muted domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• A number of BOE officials are slated to give testimony infront of parliament today.
• BOE’s Governor Bailey’s Speech: - continues his usual tone of need more signs, don’t endorse current market expectations.
• Duration of monetary policy remains uncertain
• Economy show sign s of upside.
• Cutting rates is possible before inflation hits target.
• We don’t endorse market expectations of rate cuts, but its not unreasonable for market to think that.
• No central bank will tell you when they expect to cut.
• We need more signs of domestic progress.
• Deputy Governor, Broadbent: - hawkish
• Timing of monetary policy adjustment depends on economic data.
• Evidence doesn’t support rate cuts.
• BOE’s Greene: - Hawkish commentary
• Looking at areas of inflation persistence. Wages are an upside risk.
• There’s risk of cutting too fast.
• BOE’s Dhingra:
• Downside risks exist to UK economy
• Boe’s Pill last week: Quite hawkish and bearish comments.
• We have to wait several more months before we can be convinced that persistent inflation has gone. Till then we have to maintain interest rates. Wants to see more easing of wage pressures. There are still reasons for caution, including services inflation high are a concern.
• UK labour market is tight, but this is the result of weak supply, as much as it is strong demand.
• meanwhile, Fed’s Daly gave some dovish comments after hot PPI on Friday:
• Said doesnt agree that last leg of inflation will be the hardest, and said won’t wait until 2% before cutting rates. Said 3 CUTS IS A REASONABLE BASELINE FOR THE YEAR.
• Bostic further supported 3 cuts but hinted he was ready to wait a bit longer to cut if economy is performing.
• Israel Q4 GDP falls by 20% QOQ, much worse than expectations of -10%.
• Iran led Houthis targeted Belize flagged, British registered cargo vessel, Rubymar in Red Sea today. EU deploys more warships in response.
• China’s Wang Yi says he will collaborate with EU to uphold free trade and inclusive economic globalisation. Said China EU cooperation was important. This comes as Wang Yi meets with Spanish prime minister and foreign minister.
• Wang Yi also gave comments over weekend on Canada, saying that they should rebuild trust for win win cooperation. Said the 2 sides are not opponents.
• Japan’s Finance Minister, Suzuki, will skip G20 meeting in order to focus on budget talks at home. - Yen fell somewhat after this announcement, I guess as it signals urgency and worry.
• Meanwhile, Suzuki Said he was monitoring FX movement with urgency, and continues to communicate with other countries in case for FX intervention.
• Goldman Sachs expects the BOE to start cutting rates in June, vs prior forecasts of in May.
• Nintendo was down 9% on Monday, following reports that Switch 2 launch will be delayed.
• South Korea household credit rises 0.4% QOQ for quarter ending December.
• Chinese coast guard boards Tourist boat in Taiwan. Taiwan minister expressed concern over the incident’s impact on people’s emotions and security.
• Taiwan also said they detected 17 chinese military aircrafts near Taiwan on Monday.
• US plans to allow time for negotiations on US drafted UN Security Council resolution on Gaza.
• US is considering slapping sanctions on Chinese companies that it believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine - as per CNBC.
• Biden speaks to Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to confirm he is confident of US commitment to continued support.
• Biden blamed congressional inaction for Russia’s capture of Eastern Ukrainian stronghold. This comes as Partisan disputes hold up the $60B aid for Ukraine. Biden not happy.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in recession due to weak external demand, weak domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• France say that their 2024 GDP growth forecast is 1%, and that they see that as reasonable and solid. This was lowered from 1.4%.
• France also announced 10b Euro spending cut across all ministries. Said that this was what state budget required.
• Said there will be no tax increases.
• Von Der Leyen will rund or a 2nd term as EU commission president.
• Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue cut by 40-50% due to Houthis attacks.
• Elon Musk’s first neural ink patient can control a computer mouse through thinking.
• Airbus says that competition from China’s Comac C919 will not rock the boat.

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ANALYSIS:

• A quick look at USDJPY, so we have seen more talk emerge from Suzuki the finance minister and others around intervention. USDJPY is trading at that 150 level which tends to be consistent with intervention.
• As such, we are now seeing some divergence between risk reversal on USDJPY and current price action. Traders are expecting some intervention soon, and expect JPY to move higher, thus moving USDJPY back towards 148.
• https://imgur.com/a/UNefVQC
• Meanwhile, if we look at DXY specifically, we can see that the risk reversal continues to widen in its divergence from spot price. DXY moving higher in response to hot PPI and CPI, but traders continue to price dollar to fall in the medium term.
• We see with EURUSD that skew points higher. Open interest is building on 1.09, and traders continue to expect EURUSD to rise. We see this in premarket as Dollar fell, and whilst GBP fell EURUSD moved higher.

What do we see when we look at US premarket:

• So we saw a rebalance after OPEX on Friday. There are more put options developing. IV in OTM put options increased, a sign of increased hedging. NVDA skew points lower which is a sign of profit taking ahead of earnigns and we see this as NVDA is down 1% in premarket despite bullish price target from Baird.
• We are seeing more hedging then in SPX, but money flows remain near highs.
• https://imgur.com/a/SqVoPMb
• When we look at QQQ, we see skew is downward after Friday’s close, and block flows move lower. We may see some correction in Tech soon. It appears fundamentals are supporting this too, as we continue to see divergence between SPX and bond yields.
• 426 looks like support on QQQ.
• 440 is still the call resistance.
• IWM skew shows hedging after PPI data too.
• G7 skew is key. G7 has been leading the market. If we look at the graph below, we can see this.
• G7 skew and SPX have moved together. We begin o see some hedging in big7 stocks after PPI and ahead of Nada. This can lead SPX lower.
• See the graph below.
• https://imgur.com/a/YQdwnXU

DATA LEDE:

• RBA MEETING MINUTES:
• Board considered the case for 25bps hike or to hold steady. Said case to hold steady was stronger, given balanced risks to outlook.
• Board needs more time to gain confidence in inflation coming back to target, even though data is more encouraging and led the Board to hold.
• Said not ruling out another hike in rates.
• Said evne if they hike, they would be able to pivot to cuts if necessary.
• Said goods inflation was encouraging, but service inflation as too high.
  
• China Keeps 1 Year loan prime rate at 3.45%, vs expectations of a cut to 3.3% in order to stimulate the economy.
  
• China cuts the 5 year loan prime rate by more than expected, from 4.2% to 3.95%, vs expectations to cut to 4.05%
  
• This cut to 5 year lending rate was the most on record. The 5 year lending rate is also used as the mortgage reference rate.
  
• AS such, the bid is aimed to support the property market.
  
• EURO Area Current Account comes more than expected, at nearly 32B, vs expectations of 20.3B.
  
• EURO NEGOTIATED WAGES: - this was a key release for Euro:
  
• ECB says Euro area negotiated wage growth ticked down for Q4 to 4.5% from 4.7% in Q3.
  
• We see this below:
  
• https://imgur.com/a/sAsjSde
  
• This points to a weakening labour market, and is supportive of a lower inflation rate and more dovish ECB.
  
• This was of focus as The ECB has singled out wages as the single biggest risk to its 1-1/2 year crusade against inflation, in which it raised key interest rates to record highs.
  
• However, limited impact, German bonds down just 2 basis points.
  
• US CB leading Index: Expected to come at -0.3% MOM
  

LEVELS WILL BE POSTED IN A SEPARATE POST ON TRADINGEDGE
MARKETS:

• SPX: On Friday, tested 5000 after PPI came hot, then recovered to 5039, before paring all gains back to 5k level. Yesterday, was flat around 5k as market closed. This morning, fell back to 4980 as European market opened.
• NDX: Fell to 17,650 after PPI before recovering higher, then pared gains and closed Friday at 17,650 again. 17,700 was the key level. In premarket, fell back to 17,590.
• DJI: Trading at 38,500.
• HKG50: Opened lower despite cut to 5 year rates. Then moved higher to 16300. Up 0.5%. The cut of the 5 year rate is bullish, but market didn’t push up singifncalty from it. No real impact in Chiense FX market.
• CHINA50: Opened lower then moved higher.
• Ger40: Came down to 17018 when market opened, continues to trade flat just above 17k, as traders hedge that key level.
• Japan flattish but still near record highs.
• Iron Ore futures slump 5% on China demand concerns, despite cut in 5 year rate.
• OIL moved slightly higher initially as Houthi group strikes shipping vessels in Red Sea this morning. Now down slightly, at 77.62 as USD moved higher. Impact from Red Sea attacks has been minimal from the start and that’s why the initial price action didn’t hold.
• GOLD: Cans ee on the daily chart that it found support at 2000, and is now higher again in premarket. Trying to recover back. Next upside target is 2065.
• Bond yields slightly lower this morning.

FOREX:

• AUD is higher after comments from RBA minutes: In particular, RBA said that they are not ruling out another hike in rates.
• EUR was slightly higher,
• GBP slightly lower, but following DXY. This comes despite Bailey’s fairly hawkish comments as he reiterated the BoE is looking for more sustained progress on inflation.
• Yen moves lower, despite growing speculation of impending intervention.
• DXY trades near 104 level.
• GBPUSD just about holding onto 1.26 level.
• EURUSD higher to 1.08. AUDUSD moves higher to 0.656 following RBA minutes

INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH:

• Goldman Sachs say that speculators are very crowded in calls. They argue that this is the most lopsided and aggressive exposure we’ve seen since early 2021.
• https://imgur.com/a/22S9jct
• ING say that as US data remains supportive, they expect DXY to remains strong in near term, but to trade a range from 104 to 105.
• Bloomberg say that US stocks have thus far ignored rising treasury yields, which have responded to policy expectations, but stocks haven’t. We see this below, as bond yields have risen back to rates comparable to when the SPX was trading at around 4600.
• https://imgur.com/a/c4V2V3Y
• I add my own analysis and comparison to highlight this divergence between the pricing of bond yields and SPX here:
• https://imgur.com/a/YaAjBab
• Citigroup said they see $3k Gold possible by 2025. Citi also said they potentially see oil at 100 by 2025 too.

EARNINGS:
WALMART:

• WMT to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3B in a bid to grow its ad business. Very strong comparable numbers. Sales guidance was strong, and raises dividend.
• EPS of 1.80 beat estimates by 9%. Came in up 5% YOY
• Revenue of 174B was up 6% YOY, beat estimates by 1.6%
• US comparable sales was up 3.9%, ahead of expectations or it to be up 3.2%
• Walmart only US stores comparable sales was up 4% vs estimates of up 3.12%
• Sales club Comparable sales was up 3.1%, better than expectations of up 2.99%
• Strong comparable numbers across the board - US based, Walmart stores and Sams Club.
• Even US ecommerce sales beat, up 17%, better than the 15.5% expectation.
• Adjusted operating income beat expectations by 7%
• 2025 Guidance:
• EPS of 6.7-7.12, missed by 2.6%
• Sales guidance for up3-4%

HD:

• Sales declined by 3% YOY, although it did beat Wall Street expectations for current quarter.
• Sales growth for full year came in below expectations. Also said they see comparable sales decline by 1%. This is why they re down in premarket.
• EPS came at 2.82, beating expectations by 1.8%
• Revenue of 34.8B beat by 0.4%
• Comparables came in -3.5% better than the -3.6% expected.
• BAD GUIDANCE FOR THE FULL YEAR :
• Sees comparable sales down 1% vs expectations of up 0.2%
• FY sales up 1% vs expectations of 1.5%
• Said that they are seeing a chance to return to growth now. Said market is on tis way to normal demand conditions, pressures from 2023 are receding.
• Said therefore that sales should be up 1% in 2024. That is however slightly lower than the 1.6% expected by analysts.
• HD said they will open about 12 new stores.
• Said customers are still putting off big projects, especially the large scale products that require loans, due to high borrowing costs.
• However, he said sales were quite consistent.
• January saw a bit of a decline due to colder and wetter conditions. However, he said this doesnt have an impact on guidance for the year.
• Average ticket price dropped to 88.87 from 90.05 last year, due to consumer affordability.

MAG 7 News:

• AAPL - EU will hit Apple with first ever fine, in 500M Euro penalty over music streaming. Reportedly broke laws over access to its music streaming services.
• AAPL - yesterday, Phillip Securities downgraded to neutral from accumulate. Said Price target was 194, and cited valuation as reason for downgrade. Expects services to continue to be main growth.
• TSLA - downgraded to neutral from Accumulate by Phillip Securities. Said near term outlook looks quite bleak. Price target 175.
• NVDA - HSBC raises price target to 835 from 800 ahead of earnings. Said remains Long term bullish on AI strategy, and moat. But said believes overall market expectations have risen a lot, and momentum therefore will peak.
• NVDA - Baird raises price target to 1050 from 750.
• NVDA - down 2% in premarket on profit taking ahead of earnings.
• Options for NVDA still look optimistic, calls above 1k are still keeping significant open interest.
• TSLA 0- down in premarket, EU January EV car registrations down 42% MOM, also
• Tesla's stock move comes after rival Xpeng, which is in a price war with its U.S. peer in China, warned of intense competition in the electric vehicle sector that could end in a "bloodbath. Xpeng also hiring 4k more people for AI.
• TESLA BACK BELOW 200.
• MSFT - will invest 2.1B in Spain in next 2 years to expand Ai and cloud infrastructure in the country.
• MSFT - will help train 2 million people in India with Ai skills, stepping up its commitment to India, according to CEo.

COMPANY SPECIFIC NEWS:

• Some healthcare stocks like BSX being dragged up by MDT earnings
• NVO - Can move other healthcare stocks focusing on Obesity drugs - ozempic is apparently taking off significantly in China, world’s largest obese population. But there is regulation there so some is being sold on black market.
• GS - Goldman Boosts Solomon’s pay 24% even after firms profits fall 24%.
• KEYS - key sight demonstrates 6G neural receiver design flow in collaboration with India at Mobile world Congress in 2024.
• SPOT - Apple is reportedly testing an integration, that would allow users to import playlists from Spotify
• INTC - Climbs on Report that US is considering more than $10B in subsidies. It was trading near the trend line before.
• GFS - up after US awards the company $1.5B for chip production.
• SABR - up on price correction after selling off 36% on earnings last week
• Barclays - after earnings, delivered a loss but said they would be focusing on cost cutting, and asset sales.
• SSRM down 14% as they provide further update on the Turkish mine incident. Turkey has cancelled SSR Mining Environmental permit after accident. Turkish authorities have suspended search and rescue activities.
• ARM lower with NVDA
• Bayer cuts its dividend by 95%, in effort to dig itself out of hole created from acquisition of Monsanto Co.
  
• COF - Capital one to buy Discover in all stock deal valued at $35B. Financial stocks can move on this.
  
• Reddit is reportedly selling user content to an unknown AI company in a $60 million deal before their IPO, per Bloomberg
  
• India’s Zee - pops 10% on report that the $10B merger with Sony is being revived.
  
• BABA - increases bets on overseas business. This includes their platforms like Aliexpress, Lazada, Daraz and Trendy. International business up 44% YOY, domestic business up just 2%
  
• SONY - will release a “pro” version of the Playstation 5 this year.
  
• XPEV - plans to hire 4000 people, and to invest in Ai as CEO warns that EV rivalry may end in “bloodbath”.
  
• VALE - targets more battery systems in its operations.
  
• BYD - launches new plug in hybrid sedan, with lower starting price.
  
• ROKU down 4% again, which is a continuation of earnings sell off.
  
• BE - is down on continuation fo earnigns sell off, despite BTIG reaffirming buy rating.
  
• RIO & VALE - down as iron ore down 5% today.
  
• Chinese stocks generally lower as market gives more surpressed reaction to the cutting of 5 year rate.
  
• ALK - up as price target raised to 51 from 44 by Deutsche Bank, raised to buy rom Hold. That gives 38% upside.
  
• LUV - raises as Bernstein upgrades to market perform. Also raised to buy rom Hold by Deutsche Bank
  
• FLR - up in premarket, but full year EPS expectations missed the target. Came at 2.75 at midpoint, missing expectations by 3.2%
  
• Lowe’s - down with HD.
  

OTHER NEWS:

• China new Year holiday traffic data was encouraging, we can see here that the new year holiday train travel has surged to 5 year highs. This suggests a strengthening consumer which is bullish. But these signs are not consistent yet so cannot conclude with certainty of improving China. It’s just positive signs.
• https://imgur.com/a/3mQN7Iv
• Saw today an article on Reuters that US asset managers are increasing positioning for China recovery.
• We are seeing existing home sales drop to lowest since 2008. This is a similar trend all over the world. People aren’t selling but would instead rather rent the home out.
• Goldman Sachs raises SPX price target to 5200 from 5100. Raised price target for 2nd time since December. Said Federal reserve wasn’t a primary driver in them raising forecasts. Said they raised it due to earnigns strength. Goldman are basically just chasing the price action.
• UBS meanwhile lifted their SPX target to 5,400. One of the highest amongst the banks.
• 44% of Americans can’t pay an unexpected $1k expense due to insufficient savings.
• Report that ozempic users are now cutting back on buying snacks.
• US office vacancies hit record high in Q4 2023, surpassing previous peaks from 1991 and 1986.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in a recession now on weak external demand, muted domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• A number of BOE officials are slated to give testimony infront of parliament today.
• BOE’s Governor Bailey’s Speech: - continues his usual tone of need more signs, don’t endorse current market expectations.
• Duration of monetary policy remains uncertain
• Economy show sign s of upside.
• Cutting rates is possible before inflation hits target.
• We don’t endorse market expectations of rate cuts, but its not unreasonable for market to think that.
• No central bank will tell you when they expect to cut.
• We need more signs of domestic progress.
• Deputy Governor, Broadbent: - hawkish
• Timing of monetary policy adjustment depends on economic data.
• Evidence doesn’t support rate cuts.
• BOE’s Greene: - Hawkish commentary
• Looking at areas of inflation persistence. Wages are an upside risk.
• There’s risk of cutting too fast.
• BOE’s Dhingra:
• Downside risks exist to UK economy
• Boe’s Pill last week: Quite hawkish and bearish comments.
• We have to wait several more months before we can be convinced that persistent inflation has gone. Till then we have to maintain interest rates. Wants to see more easing of wage pressures. There are still reasons for caution, including services inflation high are a concern.
• UK labour market is tight, but this is the result of weak supply, as much as it is strong demand.
• meanwhile, Fed’s Daly gave some dovish comments after hot PPI on Friday:
• Said doesnt agree that last leg of inflation will be the hardest, and said won’t wait until 2% before cutting rates. Said 3 CUTS IS A REASONABLE BASELINE FOR THE YEAR.
• Bostic further supported 3 cuts but hinted he was ready to wait a bit longer to cut if economy is performing.
• Israel Q4 GDP falls by 20% QOQ, much worse than expectations of -10%.
• Iran led Houthis targeted Belize flagged, British registered cargo vessel, Rubymar in Red Sea today. EU deploys more warships in response.
• China’s Wang Yi says he will collaborate with EU to uphold free trade and inclusive economic globalisation. Said China EU cooperation was important. This comes as Wang Yi meets with Spanish prime minister and foreign minister.
• Wang Yi also gave comments over weekend on Canada, saying that they should rebuild trust for win win cooperation. Said the 2 sides are not opponents.
• Japan’s Finance Minister, Suzuki, will skip G20 meeting in order to focus on budget talks at home. - Yen fell somewhat after this announcement, I guess as it signals urgency and worry.
• Meanwhile, Suzuki Said he was monitoring FX movement with urgency, and continues to communicate with other countries in case for FX intervention.
• Goldman Sachs expects the BOE to start cutting rates in June, vs prior forecasts of in May.
• Nintendo was down 9% on Monday, following reports that Switch 2 launch will be delayed.
• South Korea household credit rises 0.4% QOQ for quarter ending December.
• Chinese coast guard boards Tourist boat in Taiwan. Taiwan minister expressed concern over the incident’s impact on people’s emotions and security.
• Taiwan also said they detected 17 chinese military aircrafts near Taiwan on Monday.
• US plans to allow time for negotiations on US drafted UN Security Council resolution on Gaza.
• US is considering slapping sanctions on Chinese companies that it believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine - as per CNBC.
• Biden speaks to Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to confirm he is confident of US commitment to continued support.
• Biden blamed congressional inaction for Russia’s capture of Eastern Ukrainian stronghold. This comes as Partisan disputes hold up the $60B aid for Ukraine. Biden not happy.
• Bundesbank says that Germany is likely in recession due to weak external demand, weak domestic consumption and cautious investments.
• France say that their 2024 GDP growth forecast is 1%, and that they see that as reasonable and solid. This was lowered from 1.4%.
• France also announced 10b Euro spending cut across all ministries. Said that this was what state budget required.
• Said there will be no tax increases.
• Von Der Leyen will rund or a 2nd term as EU commission president.
• Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue cut by 40-50% due to Houthis attacks.
• Elon Musk’s first neural ink patient can control a computer mouse through thinking.
• Airbus says that competition from China’s Comac C919 will not rock the boat.

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Archived link of a kp-dot-ru article in Russian. Sale data is from a US site, trace to a company owned by Zelensky and his wife from a UK site.
Different source, also archived, Russian
Full text below, autotranslated
Zelensky bought the former villa of Joseph Goebbels in Germany
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky bought the former villa of Nazi Germany's propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels in Germany. KP.RU writes about this with reference to data from The Intel Drop portal.
According to journalists, last October the company Film heritage Inc. purchased a mansion called “House on Bogensee” near Berlin for 8 million euros.
As it turned out, Film heritage Inc. registered in Belize, and its owner - together with his wife Elena - is Vladimir Zelensky.
The purchased villa itself once belonged to the Minister of Propaganda of Nazi Germany, Joseph Goebbels, which was given to him personally by Adolf Hitler.
The publication also refers to an ex-employee of the real estate agency that manages municipal property BIM, Sabine Mels, who published a document confirming the company’s acquisition of Houses on Bogensee.
It is noted that the mansion, which has more than 70 rooms, was planned to be transformed into an artists' commune with a vegan restaurant and a health center.
Earlier it was reported that a reporter was killed in Egypt while investigating the purchase of a luxury villa by the Zelensky family for $5 million.

25 now, 18 when left NewYorkCity to Belize Europe Asia Latin America US - Latin America Hawaii
​
no yen, no euro, no $$$, no family, no road dog
​
make money agricultural work
I got a flute Xiao flute too
hitchhiking
​
​
now I just go to school and watch Hulu eat food I'm exhausted from traveling hardcore
I got a cat
would rather live in Asia , don't like Western world anymore after half a decade out, Hawaii is the closest to this sentiment as possible
​
miss hippies, friendships, and strange people U meet on the way
​
and mentally unstable train hoppers stealing sh^t from Target and offering to do so for me
​
​

Hello,
Can I pay with revolut in Belize. Or just normal bank card or cash? Which is better to pay in Belieze dollars or American. I'm from Europe but I'm assuming I can't pay in Euros. Where is the best place to exchange money?
Thanks in advance

Concacaf Nations League

Home	Away	Time	TV	Match Thread
French Guiana	Bermuda	2:00 PM	Paramount+
St Vincent and the Grenadines	Belize	2:00 PM	Paramount+
Bonaire	Saint Martin	6:00 PM	Paramount+
Guyana	Antigua and Barbuda	7:00 PM	Paramount+
Puerto Rico	Bahamas	7:00 PM	Paramount+
Canada	Jamaica	7:30 PM	Paramount+
Nicaragua	Dominica	9:00 PM	Paramount+
Mexico	Honduras	9:30 PM	Paramount+

CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying

Home	Away	Time	TV
Paraguay	Colombia	6:00 PM	Fanatiz
Ecuador	Chile	6:30 PM	Fanatiz
Uruguay	Bolivia	6:30 PM	Fanatiz
Brazil	Argentina	7:30 PM	Telemundo
Peru	Venezuela	9:00 PM	Fanatiz

UEFA Euro Qualifying

Home	Away	Time	TV
🇬🇷Greece	🇫🇷France	2:45 PM	ViX
🇷🇴Romania	🇨🇭Switzerland	2:45 PM	ViX
🇦🇩Andorra	🇮🇱Israel	2:45 PM	ViX

^{All Times Eastern}
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After doing a little research on cheap countries to live in and not being able to find the straightforward answers on the cost of living I was looking for, I decided to scour the web and start crunching numbers myself to put all of the info in one place.
Here is a list of most countries with monthly cost of living for a single ex-pat.
I'm continuing the crunching to include other essential information in a straightforward way - safety, internet strength, air quality, other perks (long term visas, easy citizenship, access to other countries, etc.) and will keep updating the full data in the article I'll dedicate to this here.
Country - Monthly Cost of Living
Bangladesh $699
Tunisia $891
Egypt $925
India $929
Bhutan $935
Bolivia $1,044
Togo $1,088
Bosnia and Herzegovina $1,104
Nicaragua $1,108
Madagascar $1,112
Algeria $1,129
Zambia $1,136
Nigeria $1,155
Paraguay $1,162
Cape Verde $1,173
Tanzania $1,196
Suriname $1,214
Lesotho $1,230
Argentina $1,247
Tajikistan $1,270
Botswana $1,305
Azerbaijan $1,320
Bulgaria $1,320
Morocco $1,323
Colombia $1,329
Kyrgyzstan $1,349
Ecuador $1,371
Malaysia $1,373
Brazil $1,382
Peru $1,386
Sri Lanka $1,401
Romania $1,409
Uzbekistan $1,417
Fiji $1,430
Uganda $1,482
Moldova $1,490
Cambodia $1,510
Kazakhstan $1,562
South Africa $1,578
Honduras $1,586
Nepal $1,586
Jordan $1,595
Turkey $1,600
Belize $1,607
Dominican Republic $1,609
Albania $1,614
Guatemala $1,629
Mongolia $1,645
Vietnam $1,662
Kenya $1,667
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines $1,688
Cameroon $1,715
Indonesia $1,725
Mauritius $1,744
Chile $1,762
Hungary $1,779
Rwanda $1,801
Mexico $1,825
Greece $1,843
Guyana $1,845
Ghana $1,846
Latvia $1,866
Croatia $1,871
Slovakia $1,874
Serbia $1,886
Namibia $1,906
Costa Rica $1,914
Uruguay $1,989
Angola $2,031
Mozambique $2,042
Philippines $2,061
Brunei $2,134
Thailand $2,136
Georgia $2,160
Jamaica $2,165
Estonia $2,186
Laos $2,219
Zimbabwe $2,220
Montenegro $2,234
Armenia $2,273
Spain $2,329
Ivory Coast $2,335
Oman $2,347
Portugal $2,366
Panama $2,375
Lithuania $2,382
Poland $2,403
Ethiopia $2,455
Bahrain $2,521
Slovenia $2,572
Japan $2,611
Grenada $2,623
Aruba $2,627
Cyprus $2,649
San Marino $2,688
Turkmenistan $2,734
Maldives $2,771
France $2,836
New Caledonia $2,851
Czech Republic $2,875
Trinidad and Tobago $2,876
Belgium $2,892
Austria $2,926
Italy $2,929
Senegal $2,993
Sweden $2,995
Malta $3,057
Seychelles $3,058
Finland $3,191
Andorra $3,264
Kuwait $3,271
Germany $3,340
Norway $3,353
Canada $3,390
Bahamas $3,392
Israel $3,472
United Kingdom $3,569
Netherlands $3,570
New Zealand $3,652
Barbados $3,843
Vanuatu $3,865
Australia $3,893
United Arab Emirates $3,900
Denmark $4,131
Iceland $4,267
Luxembourg $4,470
Ireland $4,483
United States $4,596
Qatar $4,686
Cuba $4,876
Gabon $5,085
Papua New Guinea $6,125
Switzerland $6,214
Singapore $6,856
Bermuda $13,183
Monaco $16,314
Edit
The monthly cost of living is the average cost of monthly expenses for an expat in cities throughout the country. The number above is average across all data I could find and is the average across all cities reported on in each country. The data comes from IMF, World Bank, Eurostat, US State Department, Expatistan, and Numbeo, and I've screened out countries (from this list) using Global Peace Index and US State Department Travel advisory notices.
Nope - the data isn't perfect, but I was unable to find anything like it (all countries listed in a single places with cost of living as USD or euros and not presented as an index number) so I made it for myself, cleaned it up, and decided to share.
If this is well received, I'll figure out how to do the same with cities around the world, for a better "apples to apples" comparison of specific destinations.

Concacaf Nations League

Home	Away	Time	TV
Montserrat	Dominican Republic	2:00 PM	Paramount+
Bermuda	St Vincent and the Grenadines	5:30 PM	Paramount+
Barbados	Nicaragua	6:00 PM	Paramount+
Jamaica	Canada	7:00 PM	Paramount+
Honduras	Mexico	9:00 PM	Paramount+
Belize	French Guiana	9:00 PM	Paramount+

CAF World Cup Qualifying

Home	Away	Time	TV
🇨🇲Cameroon	🇲🇺Mauritius	2:00 PM	FIFA+

UEFA Euro Qualifying

Home	Away	Time	TV
🇫🇮Finland	🇬🇧Northern Ireland	12:00 PM	Fox Soccer Plus
🇵🇱Poland	🇨🇿Czechia	2:45 PM	ViX

^{All Times Eastern}
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