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2024.06.06 22:44 Then_Marionberry_259 JUN 06, 2024 AMK.V AMERICAN CREEK ANNOUNCES NON-BINDING LETTER OF INTENT AND EXCLUSIVITY WITH CUNNINGHAM MINING REGARDING PROPOSED PLAN OF ARRANGEMENT
https://preview.redd.it/y7pep40rj05d1.png?width=3500&format=png&auto=webp&s=628f6c6abac3bdaa1519c1df39dd6c502bd5d435 submitted by Then_Marionberry_259 to Treaty_Creek [link] [comments] Consideration of $0.43 Cdn per Common Share represents a premium of approximately 274% Cardston, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - June 6, 2024) - American Creek Resources Ltd. (TSXV: AMK) ("American Creek" or the "Company"), announces that it has entered into a non-binding and arm's length letter of intent dated June 5, 2024 (the "LOI") with Cunningham Mining Ltd. ("Cunningham"), a private British Columbia corporation, to engage in due diligence and negotiations regarding the terms of a proposed transaction (the "Proposed Transaction") whereby Cunningham, or a subsidiary of Cunningham, would acquire all of the issued and outstanding securities of the Company. Through this proposed transaction, Cunningham would acquire control of the Company's 20% fully carried interest in the Treaty Creek Property which has an Indicated Mineral Resource of 27.87 million ounces (Moz) of AuEQ grading 1.19 g/t AuEQ and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 6.03 Moz of AuEQ grading 1.25 g/t AuEQ (see complete description below). If the parties agree to proceed with the Proposed Transaction, the Company expects the Proposed Transaction will be carried out by way of a court-approved plan of arrangement (the "Arrangement") under the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia) (the "BCBCA"). The Company's Board of Directors (the "Board"), after an extensive period of negotiation and consideration of various alternatives, has approved entry into the LOI, pursuant to which Cunningham proposes to acquire all the issued and outstanding securities of the Company, including all common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares"), at a price of $0.43 Cdn per Common Share, payable in cash (the "Consideration"). The Consideration represents a premium of approximately 274% to the $0.115 Cdn closing price of the Common Shares on the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV") on June 5, 2024 (the last trading day prior to the execution of the LOI). The LOI is non-binding and there can be no assurance that the Proposed Transaction contemplated by the LOI, or any other transaction, will be completed. Closing is subject to a number of conditions and uncertainties described below. Darren Blaney, CEO of American Creek, stated: "We are excited that Cunningham has recognized the value and the potential of the Treaty Creek Property despite the tough junior market conditions we are currently experiencing. We believe this proposed transaction may provide not only a liquidity event for our longstanding shareholders, but also represents an opportunity for shareholders to potentially realize a 250% plus premium to the present market valuation of their equity in the company. We look forward to working with Cunningham to finalize a definitive agreement in due course that protects and provides value for our shareholders." Ryan Cunningham, CEO of Cunningham, stated: "With this pending future transaction Cunningham Mining is ushering in the next frontier in terms of tokenization and monetization of in ground mineral resources. We are confident in the prospects of the gold, silver, and copper resources of the Treaty Creek Property and feel it will be a transformational addition to our upcoming NGTGOLD Token. Our team looks forward to the role it will play in the Golden Triangle as well as in the future of mining." Exclusivity The LOI provides for an exclusivity period ending at 4:00pm (Vancouver Time) on August 5, 2024 (the "Expiry Time"). Among other things, until the Expiry Time:
Notwithstanding the exclusivity provisions of the LOI, the Board has negotiated customary carve outs for unsolicited, bona fide proposals that the Board determines, in good faith, would if consummated result in a superior transaction that is more favourable to shareholders of American Creek. Failure to participate in such discussions or negotiations would be inconsistent with the Board's fiduciary duties. Structure The final structure of the transaction will be set out in the Definitive Agreement and will be based on considerations relating to matters of applicable corporate, securities, tax and other applicable laws and regulations. The LOI is non-binding, and the Proposed Transaction is subject to due diligence, and the negotiation of definitive terms and other conditions. If the Definitive Agreement is entered into, the Company will work expeditiously to secure the requisite approval in accordance with Section 288 of the BCBCA. Financing Failure Fee Execution of the Definitive Agreement will be subject to, and conditional upon, Cunningham obtaining sufficient financing to consummate the Proposed Transaction in the amount of approximately $209,537,516 Cdn (the "Financing"). In the event Cunningham is unable to provide American Creek with evidence whereby certain persons have committed to provide Cunningham with the Financing prior to the Expiry Time, Cunningham shall pay and deliver to American Creek a cash payment by wire transfer of immediately available funds (the "Financing Failure Fee"). The Financing Failure Fee will be up to $115,000 Cdn and is subject to certain adjustments. Termination Fee The LOI will terminate upon the earlier of certain events, including:
Special Committee A Special Committee of the Board (the "Special Committee") has been formed to consider, negotiate and, if applicable, finalize the Proposed Transaction, and to make a recommendation to the Board for approval prior to the execution of the Definitive Agreement or the submission of the Proposed Transaction to shareholders of the Company for a vote. LOI Non-Binding As discussions are ongoing, the Company cannot provide any assurance that it will be able to agree on the final terms of the Definitive Agreement with Cunningham. Any Proposed Transaction will be subject to, among other conditions, completion of due diligence by Cunningham, negotiation of the Definitive Agreement, a recommendation of the Special Committee, and approval by the Board. Approvals will also be required from shareholders of the Company, the Supreme Court of British Columbia (in accordance with the BCBCA), and the TSXV. The Arrangement will also be conditional upon such other customary closing conditions that may be included in the Definitive Agreement. If a Definitive Agreement is executed, the Company expects that it will be required to hold a special meeting (the "Special Meeting") of the Company's shareholders to approve the Proposed Transaction. The Proposed Transaction is subject to receipt of the foregoing approvals and other customary closing conditions. Terms and conditions of the Proposed Transaction are expected to be disclosed in greater detail in a management information circular for the Special Meeting (the "Circular"). Following execution of the Definitive Agreement, a Circular will be mailed to the Company's shareholders. There are no finder's fees payable by American Creek in connection with the Proposed Transaction. In the event that the Company executes a Definitive Agreement with Cunningham, copies of such Definitive Agreement and a Circular for the Special Meeting will be filed with Canadian securities regulators. Documents filed by the Company with Canadian securities regulators are available on the SEDAR+ profile of the Company at www.sedarplus.ca. Shareholders are urged to read any relevant materials when they become available. However, Shareholders do not need to take any action with respect to the Proposed Transaction at this time. For further information please contact Kelvin Burton at: Phone: (403)752-4040 or Email: [info@americancreek.com](mailto:info@americancreek.com). Information relating to the Company is available on its website at www.americancreek.com. Counsel Fasken Martineau DuMoulin LLP is acting as the Company's legal advisor. About American Creek and the Treaty Creek Project American Creek is a proud partner in the Treaty Creek Project, a joint venture with Tudor Gold Corp. located in BC's prolific "Golden Triangle". The Treaty Creek Project hosts the Goldstorm Deposit, comprising a large gold-copper porphyry system, as well as several other mineralized zones. As disclosed in the "NI-43-101 Technical Report for the Treaty Creek Project", dated April 5, 2024 prepared by Garth Kirkham Geosystems and JDS Energy & Mining Inc., the Goldstorm Deposit has an Indicated Mineral Resource of 27.87 million ounces (Moz) of AuEQ grading 1.19 g/t AuEQ (21.66 Moz gold grading 0.92 g/t, 2.87 billion pounds (Blbs) copper grading 0.18%, 128.73 Moz silver grading 5.48 g/t) and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 6.03 Moz of AuEQ grading 1.25 g/t AuEQ (4.88 Moz gold grading 1.01 g/t, 503.2 Mlb copper grading 0.15%, 28.97 Moz silver grading 6.02 g/t), with a pit constrained cut-off of 0.7 g/t AuEQ and an underground cut-off of 0.75 g/t AuEQ. The Goldstorm Deposit has been categorized into three dominant mineral domains and several smaller mineral domains. The CS-600 domain largely consists of nested pulses of diorite intrusive stocks and hosts the majority of the copper mineralization within the Goldstorm Deposit. CS-600 has an Indicated Mineral Resource of 15.65 Moz AuEQ grading 1.22 g/t AuEQ (9.99 Moz gold grading 0.78 g/t, 2.73 Blbs copper grading 0.31%, 73.47 Moz silver grading 5.71 g/t) and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 2.86 Moz AuEQ grading 1.20 g/t AuEQ (1.87 Moz gold grading 0.79 g/t, 475.6 Mlb copper grading 0.29%, 13.4 Moz silver grading 5.63 g/t). The Goldstorm Deposit remains open in all directions and requires further exploration drilling to determine the size and extent of the Deposit. American Creek holds a fully carried 20% interest in the Treaty Creek Project until a production notice is given, meaning that no exploration or development costs are incurred by American Creek until such time as a production notice has been issued. American Creek shareholders have a unique opportunity to avoid the dilutive effects of exploration while maintaining their full 20% exposure to one of the world's most exciting mega deposits. The Company also holds the Austruck-Bonanza gold property located near Kamloops, BC. About Cunningham Cunningham Mining Ltd. (www.cunninghammining.com) has successfully completed the acquisition of the placer claims known as the 'Nugget Trap Placer Mine" in the British Columbia Mineral Title registry, covering 573.7 acres, along with the accompanying permits and authorizations. The property is situated within the Skeena Mining Division of British Columbia, Canada, in the area known as BC's Golden Triangle. The company intends to digitize this and future in ground deposits as well as operating mines and claims through the issuance of it's Digital Asset Token, NGTGOLD Token (nuggettrap.com). Its head office is located at 10026 Pacific Centre, 25th FL, Vancouver, BC, V7Y 1B3. Technical Information and Qualified Person All information regarding Mineral Resource estimates, scientific disclosure, and technical information included in this news release is based upon the information included in the National Instrument 43-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101") compliant technical report entitled "NI-43-101 Technical Report for the Treaty Creek Project", dated April 5, 2024. This was prepared by Garth Kirkham Geosystems and JDS Energy & Mining Inc., each of whom is independent of American Creek within the meaning of NI 43-101 and is a "Qualified Person" as such term is defined in NI 43-101. Mineral Resources that are not Mineral Reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. Inferred Mineral Resources are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as Mineral Reserves. Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release. Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Information All statements, other than statements of historical fact, contained in this press release constitute "forward-looking information" and "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of certain securities laws and are based on expectations and projections as of the date of this press release. Forward-looking information and forward-looking statements may relate to the Company, Cunningham, and to anticipated events or results, notably the negotiation and completion of the Proposed Transaction on terms substantially similar to those currently contemplated. Statements regarding future results, performance, achievements, prospects, or opportunities of the Company, Cunningham, or similar statements concerning anticipated future events, results, circumstances, performance or expectations, notably the execution of a Definitive Agreement and the completion of the Proposed Transaction, as contemplated, are also forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained in this press release include, without limitation, those related to:
Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can directly or indirectly affect, and could cause, actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. There can be no assurance that the Company, the Special Committee, or the Board will be able to negotiate or approve a Definitive Agreement on terms acceptable to each of them and Cunningham. Future events could differ materially from what is currently anticipated by the Company or Cunningham. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that estimates, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved or that assumptions do not reflect future experience. Forward-looking statements are provided for the purpose of providing information about management's expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as a number of important risk factors and future events could cause the actual outcomes to differ materially from the beliefs, plans, objectives, expectations, anticipations, estimates, assumptions, and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements made in this press release are qualified by these cautionary statements and those made in the Company's other filings with the securities regulators of Canada including, but not limited to, the cautionary statements made in the relevant portion of the Company's Management Discussion & Analysis prepared as of April 22, 2024, for the financial year ended December 31, 2023. The foregoing list of factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive and new, unforeseeable risks may arise from time to time. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements or to explain any material difference between subsequent actual events and such forward-looking statements, except to the extent required by applicable law. To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/211974 https://preview.redd.it/kgvxxf4rj05d1.png?width=4000&format=png&auto=webp&s=17efa1390953d98799d3cf11087df13ec9ada456
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2024.06.05 21:06 mochingenue [#Technoblade25] a cake, year 2. (ft. some reflections on offerings and the passage of time.)
birthday cake for the birthday boy ^ happy (belated) birthday!sorry for late post, i was so disappointed in my cake that i told my friend i wouldn't post this at all, but here i am, again, late like last year. (heh, maybe it'll become kind of a tradition for me. bake a cake in good time, debate internally for days about posting it, see something that reminds me of him, cry, write the post for 3 hours, and finally post.) this year, it was mr technodad's #technoblade25 video that pushed me to post.i'm not expecting any traction on this post at all, and in fact, i'd kinda hoping that will be the case. because, by the gods, the cake this year was a disaster! (in my book, at least) (please, be kind.) i threw the pic into canva so it wouldn't immediately blind u from the subreddit front page. cute pigs r from canva! i tried out a new recipe for chocolate cake that claimed to be the best ever! it came with a frosting recipe, and um. the cake was good! but the frosting didn't work out,, i wanted to pipe flowers (like last year), but the frosting broke down, and i almost did too, LOL.>! (bros i live in southeast asia 💀 heat + amateur baker + frosting = disaster)!< but i had work the next day (1st june itself), so i just had to accept the result and carry on. but yeah, all that to say, that's why this post is late. (the cake itself was completed so yeah, chocolate cake with chocolate frosting. his favourite.just like last year, i shared it with friends and family. it made me smile to see that they enjoyed it. (despite its rather plain and somewhat unflattering appearance, it tastes pretty good.) wish i could share it with everyone as well.being so fr with u rn, i haven't been feeling like myself these past few days. the weeks leading up to his birthday all seem like a blur in my memory as well. maybe it's the melancholy, maybe it's just me. in my moments of clarity, i sometimes have this thought. i think, as the years go by, i'm getting increasingly scared of outgrowing him. "outgrowing" as in... growing older than him. it's an awful thought to me; that i, and others close to the people we lost, have to keep moving forward in linear time, while the people we cherish no longer can, and they just keep getting further and further away from us. i don't quite know how to put it in words, and i don't know how to explain the bulk of what about it upsets me, but it does. i really, really dread the day i "overtake" him in age. i feel nauseous at the thought already. but like i said, i have to keep moving forward in linear time. he was already outstanding from early in his life. (tell me why, like, 16y.o.(?) techno knew what the magna carta is, and i only learnt it in my 20s?? insert skyblock quote moment...? doesnt feel exactly relevant, but... "Skyblock teaches us that no matter how ridiculous the odds may seem, within us resides the power to overcome these challenges and achieve something beautiful. That, one day, we'll look back at where we started and be amazed by how far we've come." still my favourite quote to this day. what an absolute gem of a man. if you're reading this, let's treasure the past, and keep moving forward together. towards our hopes and dreams for the future, whatever that may look like to you. future me re-reading my posts, i know you think this was cringey. stop it! let a girl be sappy for once!! happy 25th birthday, big man.and thank you (and all the stewards of the technoblade legacy), for continuing to shine a light in life for me and many others, even now. |
2024.06.05 03:15 hoolu123 [Thank You] Tuesday Mail
2024.06.04 22:14 greenman325 Goods and Services custom sneaker resole - First Impressions
2024.06.04 00:11 Naismythology Top 250 Players (Careers + Peaks): #30-21 (OC)
2024.06.03 14:42 subthings2 Is the president of Argentina godfather to hundreds of werewolves?
According to Argentinian folklore, the seventh straight son born to a family will transform into the feared "el lobison."Firstly, the reason this was a news story in the first place - and not the almost 700 children that Fernandez had already adopted in her term - was that this was the first Jewish adoptee in majorly Catholic Argentina; the story was first circulated in English by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency on the 25th of December,[2] two days after Kirchner had posted about it on twitter,[3] several days after it had made the rounds on Hispanophone sites. Unlike the Spanish reports (and reporting on previous adoptions), the supposed werewolf connection was at the forefront of the presentation rather than being a quick aside about the tradition, which is the part that was focused on when this went viral.
The werewolf shows its true nature on the first Friday after the boy's 13th birthday, legend says. The boy turns into a demon at midnight whenever there is a full moon, doomed to hunt and kill others before returning to human form.
Belief in the legend was so widespread in 19th century Argentina that families began abandoning - even murdering - their own baby boys.
That atrocity sparked the Presidential practice of adoption, which began in 1907, and was formally established in 1973 by Juan Domingo Peron, who extended the tradition to include baby girls.
Seventh sons or daughters now gain the President as their official godparent, a gold medal, and a full educational scholarship until the age of 21.
Yair Tawil, the seventh son of a Chabad Lubavitch family, is the first Jewish boy to be adopted, as the tradition only applied to Catholic children until 2009.
That custom began in 1907, when Enrique Brost and Apolonia Holmann, Volga German emigrés from south-eastern Russia asked then-president José Figueroa Alcorta to become godfather to their seventh son, said the historian.This wraps up the popular narrative of this story, repeated in articles and videos both English and Spanish; we'll be focusing on The Guardian's version, though this merely represents a version of the story that's entered the general Fun Facts archive of endlessly reposted trivia.
The couple wanted to maintain a custom from Czarist Russia, where the Tsar was said to become godfather to seventh sons, and Argentina’s president accepted.
The practice soon became tradition and was passed into law in 1974 by Isabel Perón, the widow of Argentina’s political strongman General Juan Perón, once she succeeded him in the presidential seat after his death in office. As Argentina’s first woman president, Mrs Perón extended the benefit to seventh daughters as well.This is referring to Ley 20,843,[11] but If we read the text of that law we find that it just gives the president general powers to grant scholarships. The image of the Wikipedia page shows Decreto 848/73 - which funnily enough was directly linked by The Guardian - which is the actual 1973 decree[12] that extended this to seventh daughters. Which was still during Juan Perón's (not Argentina's first woman president) time. This decree is the one altered in 2009[13] so that "Those who do not profess Catholic worship" can also be counted, allowing our Jewish seventh son to make the headlines.
Today it is a custom that only applies in our country. It is 100% Argentine heritage; a Russian myth that is not even "respected" in that country, only here.[Translated using Google translate]
2024.06.02 15:37 Avatar-of-Chaos The Tower on the Borderland — Day One in the Month of the Towering Mist
IntroductionThe Tower on the Borderland is an Action-Horror game developed and published by DascuMaru. It was on the 20th of May, 2024. As of the 25th of May, 2024, updated.PresentationThe Tower on the Borderland is gritty with PSX graphics and ambience, shrouding in a wispy mist; it is primarily quiet with some creatures making a racket—there's one song playing from the checkpoint radio called Danse Macabre (1874) by Camille Saint-Saëns.https://preview.redd.it/5k3p9b14r54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8975d6dbaa27ab89c71ee0ccf0622a1f8839b35c The story follows Erin, a member of a Spec Op team, on their way to an enormous labyrinth—towering towards the sky. Erin doesn't know the details of her mission, but she is honoured to be a part of CHOSO and asked to stay behind to set up a relay at the entrance—she countered, saying it's better on higher elevation, but they're gone. She chased after her commando—encountering dead soldiers and monsters along the way. Locates her unit—wearing bizarre masks amidst a ceremony, interrupting them. Erin shot off the cliff. The plot assumes afterwards, as Erin ascends and descends the Tower, uncovering the mystery and escape. The gameplay is a mix of exploration and combat. https://preview.redd.it/82gzot5or54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d22225eef807565f417fc84c2c4b6cafe3c7f8a Metroidvania's approach to exploration is handled adequately on each floor; the map updates with the layout and points of interest. These attractive areas are mostly elevators to transport from one floor to another; the others are checkpoints to recover Health and Medkits and Ammunition. And upgrades from fallen soldiers. While I don't use the radio often cause I love to wander off, it picks up on frequencies from points of interest. The map controls take getting used to; it orbits along the horizontal axis and pans with the vertical axis. Erin starts with a combat knife and handgun, slowly gaining a rifle and grenades. Combat is a light Soulslike without managing EXP: it's all skill. Locking on enemies to directly attack them; strangely, you can't switch targets. The combat knife performs a 1–2 combo; the first is a lunge—sometimes it'll double-hit—which is fine by me; some enemies take a lot of punishment. Firearms and grenades have a chance of stunning enemies. The game doesn't tell how many grenades Erin has without throwing them. And you can dodge forever; there's no stamina meter. It doesn't make it less challenging. However, Erin doesn't need to fight every enemy, only those that deactivate elevators and guard the upgrades. https://preview.redd.it/wr74zce6s54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e20b6022bf087ed0f8f1222276a5a85d97333012 Enemies diverge into two types, humanoids and bugs, each having different attacking phases and audio cues. As the game progresses, new types emerge; these enemies will transition to a Bug-Humanoid Hybrid after taking enough damage. The Tower on the Borderland's Cosmic Horror combines inspirations and themes. The House on the Borderland (1908) by William Hope Hodgson is the primary inspiration for The Tower on the Borderland, which follows a recount of a manuscript found in a ruined property—written by its owner. The owner experienced hallucinatory phenomena of the House's past and future—sights of the watchful God-Beasts above an arena and celestial bodies of dead stars; time seemed to accelerate and slow, respectively. The Tower is like the House, stands the test of time as a phantom. While The Tower is Borderland-bound, it's a labyrinth of character. https://preview.redd.it/h52dwa91s54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54240d9c309514d2e9a365da6a4fca39ae079da0 The Tower has its fancy in the form of a Piranesi)esque tale told by the Spirit Grub-loving Fleming—for every five tells a piece. Fleming's story tells of the Tower's past from the perspective of a Wanderer, whose pilgrimage to the Tower—ambling the halls adorned with statues of anthropomorphic beasts—feeling the malign forces of the Tower, to the only place of calm, looms an idol of an Owl. The tale then foretold the future. A Necromancer and his Masked Soldiers perform a ritual to awaken a God-Beast, Xiga Lavos. And Erin, who will stop them? The Wanderer warns about Erin's challenges—and the eternity she needs to roam the Tower. The saga is the game's greatest strength in facilitating Cosmic Horror with incredible writing and descriptions of the Tower's absurd geometry. And yet, there's more to Fleming's tale. https://preview.redd.it/31bm88l1t54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91c44951f3cd409eb3175697d72fa25aeb2f066d Interestingly, Erin does see an apparition of an Owl at checkpoints—getting close to it. The Owl flies away into the mist. The Tower's geometry is an illogical design influenced by the Tower of Babel. The Hebrew meaning is to confuse, synergising with the purpose of a labyrinth. The Tower appears to act as a Lighthouse, drawing attention to its domain. The soldiers refer to the CHOSO soldiers that Erin came with. However, they came for something else, Eternal Life—by partnering up with Father Bryan. Father Bryan offers them animal masks, granting capabilities beyond humans—as the game's two-phase bosses when defeated in the first phase, Father Bryan grants them Dark Revival, a transformation of their Mask—something like the masks from Majora's Masks. The difficulty is mixed: I found Fenton and O'Reilly challenging, while the others relatively easy. The rifle tears these bosses up like tissue paper. https://preview.redd.it/nsepo078v54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=34b56bb45c63d0cbf3c8049bf4946e0c4f6334b7 Father Bryan is the wheelchaired man seen during the prologue. There isn't much about him besides being a Nodens and the Usurper. Bryan quotes the Sea [Lake] of Hali within its deepest abyss. The Conqueror Worm. While talking with O'Reilly. The Conqueror Worm implies that humanity's folly meets in hideous death by dark forces beyond understanding—repeated, though more directly to Erin from Father Bryan. The Sea of Hali is aesthetic, a sea made of mist. The Tower on the Borderland's Nodens are the giant bugs guarding the inner sanctum. They are nightmare parasites that eat dreams, according to McKray. https://preview.redd.it/98f3bz39t54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=173525050b680a3fa2de44e28f69fb4a81593184 The first phase of Father Bryan has Erin use firearms to do damage. Melee is possible when he leans over his desk, but I advise against it. Father Bryan has powerful swipes. The second phase is more challenging. Father Bryan switches to AOEs used by the bug enemies. However, Erin finally meets the dead Wanderer before the final confrontation. He offers his Halberd of the Light (I'm unsure if it is predetermined or otherwise). The Halberd of the Light is the game's most powerful weapon—according to the Wanderer, "with each swing of the sacred weapon, the Warrior cleaved the fabric of the mundane, drawing forth energies empowering the eternal soul", cryptically it heals on strike. https://preview.redd.it/gg0t85tdv54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e8192604159c3eaa2adba269e4cbe904c58d3f88 The world-building goes beyond the Tower. CHOSO is an abbreviation for Counter Horror & Occult Special Ops: does that mean there are other instances like the Tower? What is the Winter Palace the Wanderer mentions? Or the Dark Flame Father Bryan mentioned? But!—more importantly, Erin escaped her Babylonian nightmare, but her quest is far from over. Collapsing CosmosesThe Tower on the Borderland is a delight, full of character and atmosphere. Within the brume hides an intricate Cosmic Horror—a hallucinatory world with malign forces and a serene breeze blowing on the winds.https://preview.redd.it/cg2nnh62w54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d1bb5004c09f48a11db02cbe37586b185c4c24a The Tower on the Borderland gets a strong recommendation. |
2024.06.02 00:50 StellaTerra At the end of my wits with the Classic Plus (broken spokes, endless repair, no replacement parts)
2024.05.31 13:01 KPOP_MOD Megathread 9: HYBE vs. ADOR - Shareholders' Meeting recap, Min Hee Jin Press Conference pt.2, and More
MEGATHREADS ONE and TWO and THREE covered events from April 22nd to the 26th
MEGATHREAD FOUR provided a SUMMARY of all events up to April 30th.
MEGATHREADS FIVE and SIX covered the first half of May up to the 18th.
MEGATHREAD SEVEN covered May 19th to the 25th.
MEGATHREAD EIGHT covered the last week of May.
2024.05.30 03:04 Opposite_Mirror1744 Mwhahahahahahh
submitted by Opposite_Mirror1744 to Worldbox [link] [comments] |
2024.05.29 19:16 Guilty-Platypus-7186 Master's Thesis Anxiety
2024.05.29 11:39 Chas-- Nikken's End 1A: The Survivor Gita [Part I: The Roles]
"What distinguished the Indian system from that of the ancient Western world is the absence of slavery. The caste system made formal slavery unnecessary in ancient India." - from The Two Classes of the Four-Fold Caste System, by Sudheer Birodkar.In Nikken's Threefold World, which is "the world of unenlightened beings who transmigrate within the Six Paths" [Hell, Hunger, Animality, Anger, Humanity and Heaven] ... the 1st chapter describes the structure of Nikken's World of Heaven.
The Bhagavad Gita says this about the varnas (color):An explicit Brahminist theocracy would be the Vatican, where the Pope and Cardinals = Brahmins, the Bishops = Kshatriyas, the Priests tending the flocks = Vaishyas, the Monks, Nuns and the Laity = Shudras, and finally the poor = Untouchables, except for once a year when the Pope washes a foot or two.
Brahmins (white) - Priests and Teachers: The works of a Brahmin are peace; self-harmony, austerity, and purity; loving- forgiveness and righteousness; vision and wisdom and faith.
Kshatriyas (red) - Warriors and Rulers: The works of a Kshatriya are: a heroic mind, inner fire, constancy, resourcefulness, courage in battle, generosity and noble leadership.
Vaishyas (Brown) - Farmers, Merchants, Artisans, etc.: The works of a Vaishya are trade, agriculture and the rearing of cattle.
Shudras (Black) - Laborers: The works of the Shudra are service.
Untouchables (Outcastes - no color) - Polluted Laborers.
[chapter 18, Juan Mascaró translation, Penguin Books, 1962]
Associated with each varna there is a traditional color. These sound suspiciously like skin colors; and, indeed, there is an expectation in India that higher caste people will have lighter skin -- although there are plenty of exceptions (especially in the South of India).
So, there are these visibly separable classes of people, which perform specific functions, and which form the basic hierarchical structure of ALL theocracies, explicit and implicit.
The twice born [Brahmins, Kshatriyas, Vaishyas] account for about 48% of Hindus. The rest are Shudras and Untouchables. The Shudras may represent the institutional provision that the Arya made for the people they already found in India. The Shudras thus remain once born, and traditionally are not allowed to learn Sanskrit or study the Vedas. Their dharma is to work for the twice born. But even below the Shudras are the Untouchables, who are literally "outcastes," without a varna [color], and were regarded as "untouchable" because they are ritually polluting for caste Hindus. Some Untouchable subcastes are regarded as so polluted that members are supposed to keep out of sight and do their work at night: They are called "Unseeables." In India, the term "Untouchable" is now regarded as impolite or politically incorrect (like Eta in Japan for the traditional tanners and pariahs).These kinds of divisions of people only become more bitter, over time, as more and more distinctions need to be drawn to demonstrate clearly that one is not a part of a lower group. (Like the insanity of "Colored" water fountains in the South, when I was a child.)
The Untouchables, nevertheless, have their own traditional professions and their own subcastes. Those professions (unless they can be evaded in the greater social mobility of modern, urban, anonymous life) involve too much pollution to be performed by caste Hindus: (1) dealing with the bodies of dead animals (like the sacred cattle that wander Indian villages) or unclaimed dead humans, (2) tanning leather, from such dead animals, and manufacturing leather goods, and (3) cleaning up the human and animal waste for which in traditional villages there is no sewer system. Mahâtmâ Gandhi referred to the latter euphemistically as "scavenging" but saw in it the most horrible thing imposed on the Untouchables by the caste system. His requirement on his farms in South Africa that everyone share in such tasks comes up in an early scene in the movie Gandhi. Since Gandhi equated suffering with holiness, he saw the Untouchables as hallowed by their miserable treatment and so called them "Harijans" (Hari=Vishnu). Later Gandhi went on fasts in the hope of improving the condition of the Untouchables, or at least to avoid their being politically classified as non-Hindus. Today the status of the Shudras, Untouchables, and other "scheduled castes," and the preferential policies that the Indian government has designed for their advancement ever since Independence, are sources of serious conflict, including murders and riots, in Indian society.If you had a difficulty in understanding precisely what tied together the "Gandhi, King and Ikeda" exhibits around the country ... perhaps the point will become abundantly clear after reading this article, since all three of these men fought to end the exploitation and oppression of a large number of hard-working common people, who supported a parasitic caste system.
The Brahmin-Kshatriya combine was thus the appropriating section as against the Vaishya-Shudra combine who represented the productive section. But although the two appropriating and the two appropriated sections of society performed different functions like the ritual worship undertaken by the Brahmins, warfare by Kshatriyas, cultivation by the Vaishyas and menial work by the Shudras they were essentially two broad economic categories with antagonistic interests of sharing the social surplus product which only the Vaishyas and Shudra created.Dai-Rokuten-No-Mao is defined as the function of rapturous exploitation of the efforts of others, while grinding those others underfoot.
... Dana along with dakshina (a voluntary payment made to Brahmins for religious services which they rendered), has been represented as an offering to the clergy at our innumerable religious rites. Thus the spiritual clasp of the clergy on the general population came to play a vital role in appropriating the surplus in favour of the clergy, rendering coercion unnecessary and in perpetuating social practices which had lost relevance with day-to-day life.The reference to day-to-day life and social relevance is indicating that those activities which were initially tribal social functions involving redistribution of food in an agrarian tribal culture, were no longer serving the function of allowing farmers to survive a bad year, or a flood in one part of the locality not affecting another part.
The clergy firmly rooted in the minds of the masses, ideas about Karma - faithfully carrying out of duties assigned to each person on virtue of being born in any particular caste. Ideas about rebirth fostered a belief that sufferings of this life were a result of deeds of one's past lives and the faithful execution of duties that fell upon one in one's present life would hold a promise of rebirth in a higher caste. With their minds enmeshed in such dogmas, the masses mutely accepted a secondary status in the social hierarchy for centuries together.The idea of waiting until the next time around, instead of enjoying this one and only precious instance of YOU, which will not recur in anyone's religious tradition ... this is the worst slander of humanity: wasting one's life, voluntarily, for the foul rapture of another.
It makes no difference if the practitioner himself is lacking in worth, defective in wisdom, impure in his person, and lacking in virtue derived from observing the precepts. So long as he chants Nam-myoho-renge-kyo, they [the protective functions] will invariably protect him. One does not throw away gold because the bag that holds it is dirty; one does not ignore the sandalwood trees because of the foul odor of the eranda trees around them; and one does not refuse to gather lotuses because the pond in the valley where they grow is not clean. If they ignore the practitioner of the Lotus Sutra, they will be going against their vow.The issue is the correct practice. THAT is my complaint against Nikken and his Nichiren Shoshu successors like Nichinyo.
THAT is my problem with Nikken and Nichiren Shoshu priests, in general. It is not that they hang out with bad women or good women.From the end of Nikko Shonin's 26 Admonitions:
- Nichiren Shoshu and the Hokkeko have always called themselves followers of Nikko's Fuji School, but from the beginning (1912) they have followed priests that disobey the 25th Admonition against sexual abstinence, and they have followed priests that were trained by Nichiren Shu (5 Senior Priests) at Rissho University - disobeying the 2nd Admonition, and hence according to Nikko they are not his followers, but are instead followers of the Five Senior Priests. (Nikko would have kicked them out of the Fuji School just for training at Rissho.)
"I have set forth these 26 articles for the sake of the eternal salvation and protection of humankind. Those who violate even one of these articles cannot be called disciples of Nikko."
In 1969, Daisaku Ikeda founded Soka University to train the future leaders of the Soka Gakkai, among others. This was a necessary move, because of the corruption seen in attitudes of Japanese Academics, and their determined resistance to recognizing the Soka Gakkai as a valid religious organization and worthy of respect. Witness the academic quotes in the LOOK Magazine article (1963) by the President of Rissho University, Rev. Shobun Kubota, D.T. Suzuki of Zen, and other academics, that the Soka Gakkai "can not be Buddhism".
' The Rev. Dr. Shobun Kubota, vice-president of Rissho University of Tokyo, concurs. "The principle of Buddhism," he says, "is to restrain man's desires, such as sex, hunger, wealth and fame, but Soka Gakkai promises the possession of these desires. It uses man's weaknesses as a tool for its own expansion. It has the same characteristics as Nazism. Finally, it is a corruption of Buddhism."' - LOOK Magazine, September 10, 1963
This from academic Buddhists who signed up unanimously, institution by institution, to bear the Shinto Talisman, and promote Imperial Way Buddhism and Imperial State Zen militarism for the God-Emperor. In support of that self-same Nazi Reich, while Makiguchi and Toda alone bore the brunt of oppression to the end. Such evil-doers call themselves Buddhists. Their tongues should rot in their mouths.
Soka University has created at least one academic environment where the Soka Gakkai can be viewed with objectivity by students. This was and remains an absolute good.
Nichiren Shoshu continued to allow the training of their future leaders by the Nichiren Shu Minobu Sect at Rissho University, even though they were aware that this was a slander of Nikko's school, and made them not followers of Nikko.
Excerpts from http://www.geocities.com/smimoza/vol275.html, the "Fake [High Priest]" Newsletter: "My view of the teachings of Nichiren Shoshu has been polluted with Minobu's wicked teachings," Nikken confessed at the opening ceremony for the Fuji Gakurin School (Dai- Nichiren, May 2000 edition).
Fuji Gakurin is the school that Nikken started to belatedly replace Rissho University as the source of priest trainees for Nichiren Shoshu. Apparently, he only took this action after people started talking about the 26 Admonitions publicly (Living Buddhism article by Daisaku Ikeda in 1998). The sad fact is, that Nichiren Shoshu has violated all 26, most by the letter of the admonition, but all 26 by their intent.
In relatively short order after being rebuked in 1998, Nikken officially opened the Fuji Gakurin School on April 10th, 2000. Many attended and heard his statements: Nichijun Fujimoto, Nichiyu Yoshida, Nitto (Juken) Ohmura, Nichijo (Gikan) Hayase, Nissho (Shinei) Yagi, Chief of the Overseas Department Kotoku Obayashi, Chief of the Public Relations Department Kogaku Akimoto and Vice Chief of the Study Department Kosho Mizushima.
Nikken went on to state that "he had been contaminated by Minobu's teachings"...
"I once attended the University run by Nichiren-shu. The hardest thing for me in my campus life was that the teacher said many false things about the teachings and history of Nichiren Daishonin. I had always thought that I should refute these false ideas. However, I cannot say that that was my true intention, because I was only a student."
"When we constantly hear false things, we will be caught up in false ways of thinking, or I can say, we will be trapped in it. As I recall my early days, false ideas did exist in my view of Nichiren Buddhism, especially regarding the legitimate teachings of Nichiren-shoshu. At that time, I was not able to straighten out my thoughts sufficiently from the viewpoint of faith, action, study.... If I were young now, I could study with you, young fellows, in these classes, taught by these engaged teachers."
But his distorted views from Rissho were not left there at the University.
We are reminded of Nikken's words on October 8th, 1985, when he attended the completion ceremony of Komyoji Temple, Hachioji City, Tokyo. Kotoku Hirayama, the chief priest of the temple, asked Nikken, "What is the biggest obstacle you had in your practice?" Nikken answered, "It is that I could not truly believe in the Gohonzon. I cannot believe truly now. I have to really try."
Also, we are reminded of Nikken's statement that "Daigohonzon is a fake" from the Kawabe memo. This statement seems to be influenced by the author of "view of wood honzon is false", Minobu priest Bentetsu Yasunaga, who is an associate professor at Minobu's Rissho University and chief priest of Zenshoji Temple.
'In recent years, the exchange of Minobu priests and Nikken sect priests has become more frequent. Monks of the Nikken sect make pilgrimages to temples of Minobu sect with Hokkeko members, or they invite Minobu monks to Taisekiji. General chief of the Hokkeko federation, Kisoji Yanagisawa, made a pilgrimage to Kuonji Temple, the general head temple of the Minobu sect. We [the Fake Newsletter] have mentioned this issue before, and even "Emyo," one of organ papers of Nikken sect, could not argue against this. Taisekiji priests Kaido Seki, Jikei Maekawa, Kosho Mizushima, Sonfuku Ochiai, Gishu Funabashi, all made visits to Minobu's temples themselves. They later made excuses during lectures at their temples or in their temple newsletters, saying, "We went and saw the temple but did not chant."...etc.'
The proof of Rissho's heritage is on their own website, the page on "History of Rissho":.
'Over 120 Years of Tradition and 70 Years of History as a Modern Educational Institution'
'No other institution of higher education in Japan has a longer tradition than Rissho University.'
'Our founding dates back to 1580 when the "Iidaka- Danrin School" was established to educate student priests of the Nichiren sect of Buddhism. The school took its name from its location, Iidaka Town, which is now Yoka- lchiba City in Chiba Prefecture. Some of the ancient wooden structures have been carefully preserved and form part of the Hanko-ji Temple. These structures include the lecture hall, gate, drum tower and bell tower, which are designated as "Important Cultural Assets" by the Government. The school closed its gates in 1875. During its 295-year history, it produced a great many talented figures who made prominent contributions to promoting Buddhism and education in Japan.'
'Shortly before it [Iidaka-Danrin School] was closed, the "Nichiren-shu Shukyo-in" (Nichiren Religious Academy) was established in 1872 at the Jokyo-ji Temple in Takanawa, Tokyo, to succeed the "Iidaka-Danrin School" in modern times.'
'In 1904, the Academy was moved to Osaki,Tokyo, the present site of the main campus of Rissho University.'
'Authorized by the Government ordinance concerning colleges issued that year [1904], it opened its gates as "Nichiren-shu Daigakurin" (Nichiren Religious College).'
'When the Government issued an ordinance concerning universities in 1924, the University was reorganized into Rissho University with Faculty of Letters newly opened. Its doors were opened to both Nichiren priests and ordinary students.'
Hence, Nikken is more than simply an enemy of the Soka Gakkai and a very bad High Priest at the Fuji School.
Nikken is clearly not a follower of Nikko's School and never has been at any time. He is a follower of the Five Senior Priests and a minion of Minobu, in spite of what his conscious mind tells him. Consciousness is, after all, only one of Five Components.
25. My disciples should conduct themselves as holy priests, patterning their behavior after that of the late master. However, even if a high priest or a priest striving for practice and understanding should temporarily deviate from [the principle of] sexual abstinence, he may still be allowed to remain in the priesthood [as a common priest without rank].Nikko did not want the priesthood to be a self-sustaining community, where priesthood positions could be handed down to the kids, like a family business. He clearly intended that every priest should come from a family of lay believers, or spring forth spontaneously from the new membership.
(from Living Buddhism 4/1998)
A common mortal is an entity of the three bodies, and a true Buddha. A Buddha is a function of the three bodies, and a provisional Buddha. In that case, though it is thought that Shakyamuni Buddha possesses the three virtues of sovereign, teacher, and parent for the sake of all of us living beings, that is not so. On the contrary, it is common mortals who endow him with the three virtues."A common mortal is ... a true Buddha". And Nichiren and Shakyamuni are endowed with the three virtues of sovereign, teacher, and parent BY the common mortal, who is the true Buddha.
2024.05.29 05:12 kaaaathryn I've never felt so disrespected in my life.
YUUUUUUPDATE: submitted by kaaaathryn to FancyFollicles [link] [comments] For further information since some of yall wanna be technical about things, my consultation was March 11th and the appointment was the 25th. That's two weeks to the date and still "less than a month later". I really don't understand how someone could forget a vivid project during that time frame. And if you can't remember, then maybe do some client notes??? Idk? Also, I went back to their website to find pricing and it's now gone :) the price list :) but the internet never forgets. So here we go. On the left is an archived version of their website and on the right you can see they removed their price list from the Services tab. When you go to book an appointment, it just says prices vary for everything. The pricing list from my appointment time said "$200+" which, yeah, fair. You don't know how much color or lightener is going to be needed. But if it already includes vivid, why is there more color charge when I don't even have long hair? Do I need to have a pixie cut to get that "all inclusive" pricing? Anyone who thinks this pricing is appropriate is part of the problem and imma stand by that. During our consult, she had also quoted me for removing the blue and said the whole project would be $600+ and that's when I mentioned I'm trying to budget and I'd like to go pink but keep it budget friendly. I knew some of the pricing while going into this, but it was still about $120+ more than I was expecting. https://preview.redd.it/5eos5gezgi3d1.png?width=2554&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9eda854de5e887d6e882aadc1c0eb205b97fc9a ANYWAYS. Thank you to those who shared love and grief. <3 and more love to the ADTR fans <3 Original Post: It's okay to laugh. I went to a consultation and talked about wanting lightener and pink for the one-year grow-out I had above my previous blue color. No specific pink, just pink. Came in for my appointment, not even a month later, and felt like the stylist forgot everything I had mentioned in my consultation but I reminded her about our pink color conversation (referenced a pink bottle, the same one from the consultation discussion) hoping that would help her remember ANYTHING we had talked about. But I guess not because the price at the end told me she hadn't heard or remembered a single thing. She lightened everything above my previous blue and applied pink. She charged me for color x2 and a glaze, while the lightener charge is supposed to include a vivid all-over color. She did not verify the extra charges with me while I was in the chair. The color job is a 9.5/10 but the disrespect is a 15/10. After she styled my hair, I asked if she had anything to remove the pink from my forehead, and THIS WOMAN LOOKED AT ME AND SAID NO. She proceeded to take me outside for photos and made sure to fluff my hair forward to cover the mess she made. Adding on two extra color charges as well as a glaze felt slimey after I had told her I was on a budget. Ended up paying over $500 with gratuity and walked out of the salon with sticker shock. The previous girl I went to would take 5 whole minutes to wipe my forehead, ears, and neck after coloring. But to not have color remover for your clients?! Since when?! Thankfully a sanitizer wipe took care of the mess. Who would've known that the solution would be so simple? https://preview.redd.it/1ikzyzaw8a3d1.jpg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=796a5cb5a38d7921c9724933d1796af52eeeb86a https://preview.redd.it/ftc1ktww8a3d1.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=afcfb2168eb9b12800d19f5234ce88506aff500b https://preview.redd.it/n27qhwkx8a3d1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af4ee19d85fa0383a9b834412c5a10338203cee7 https://preview.redd.it/b42dh32y8a3d1.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=238f1e6fd6e11f44b442f76204bc3c4e882b4973 |
2024.05.28 07:10 ShibaDoge42069 Libertarian(Lolbertarian ATP) Nominee for President. Wow, Ron Paul’s influence has left the party. I’m beyond disappointed.
Getting roasted on X for being a woke leftist candidate who supports drag queen story hour, mask and vax mandates, among other things. Supported BLM like Jorgensen as well. SMFH man. submitted by ShibaDoge42069 to trump [link] [comments] |
2024.05.28 07:09 thecrgln I real don't wanna serve in the Russian army
2024.05.28 06:58 ShibaDoge42069 Alright, how are you guys going to defend this one. This literally feels like the LP nominated this guy to help elect Trump at this point 😂 guy is getting roasted on X 🏧
submitted by ShibaDoge42069 to libertarianmeme [link] [comments] |
2024.05.28 06:46 ShibaDoge42069 RIP the libertarian party. The days of Ron Paul are over 😔
submitted by ShibaDoge42069 to Conservative [link] [comments] |
2024.05.28 01:41 sonmanutd Thinking like a gambler: How many % of your net worth should be on Bitcoin?
TLDR: This very much depends on the person’s risk tolerance. For a typically risk averse person with gamma = 2.0, and assume a return of BTC to be 20% annually and historical volatility of 77%, one should hold 12% of their allocation in BTC. Under-betting might lead to regret, while over-betting can lead to disastrous crash in happiness should the price reduce. Thus, determining your correct risk tolerance (gamma), is crucial to having a healthy investment life. Take the "Finding your own gamma" quiz to determine your risk tolerance, and then use it to look up the allocation table at the end of the article. submitted by sonmanutd to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments] Introduction📘How much of your net worth should you bet on Bitcoin? Here in cryptocurrency subreddit, we are all firm believers in BTC over the long term. Unsustainable fiscal policy and endless money printing from central banks all around the world have been lasting unabated since 1970, while no attempts at serious reforms are on the horizon. It all points towards the need to keep the fruits of our labors into a decentralized asset that not only is already the hardest to make, but also exponentially getting harder to make over time. And that asset is Bitcoin.Yet, there has been surprisingly little consensus on how much of our net worth should be invested in Bitcoin. A walk around the subreddit shows all kinds of different numbers: 1%, 5%, 10%, 30% all the way to 100%. Some people suggest a rule of thumb like “only invest money you can afford to lose”, subjecting your allocation to wild swings that would wake you up at night checking Coinbase every minute for price movements. It turns out, sizing your investment is just as important as deciding what to invest. How should we think about risk and uncertainty? What is the allocation that would allow us to enjoy the returns, while not being bothered by the wild swings of the market? What is the framework that helps us pick the sweet spot between regretting that we don’t invest enough, and regretting that we invest too much? How to truly be happy with our return of crypto assets, knowing that we have decided the best among the “what ifs”? Why not 100% BTC?🚫💯But first, let us ask ourselves a simple question. If we love Bitcoin so much and already believe that Bitcoin will deliver returns superior to all other investments, why don’t all of us invest 100% in BTC? In fact, some people do. To them, Bitcoin is already the last currency, the measuring stick that every single worth of labor and asset should convert to. If you are among this group, this article is not relevant for you.The reality is that the vast majority of Bitcoin investors do so because they promise high returns relative to the fiat that they use daily for their daily needs. For all its flaws and inflations, the US dollar is still used in everyday life. People still spend 40 hours / week at work, knowing that they will have the same paycheck every 2 weeks for the rest of the year. The price of bananas and bread are stable day after day, even though they keep shrinking 5% every year. This perception of stability and convenience means that imagining wealth as the total amount of fiat remains hard-wired into many people for the time being. And this means that the wild swing accompanying Bitcoin price is a major psychological baggage to all investors who see their wealth in dollars. A 100% Bitcoin allocation means that on a certain day, they might see a 5% drop or 5% gain in their net worth. They have to maintain their conviction during the long period of 2021 - 2023 where Bitcoin lost 80% from peak value, before finally recovering in late 2023. This can wreak havoc on a person’s psychological well being ranging from constantly being distracted from work to checking their portfolio to unloading their anger and stress to their wives and kids. Worst of all, the person might be emotionally tempted to panic sell at the worst moment, right before the price recovers, triggering a torrent of regrets. All this points to the fact that we need a mathematical model to help us reason about not just the expected return, but also the potential loss that we incur so that we can size our bets just enough to both maximize return and minimize regrets. This is a kind of decision that gamblers have to think about on a constant basis, so let’s turn to them to see what we can learn! Thinking like a gambler🎲How does a gambler size his bet? I’ll bring up this classic example from the book The Missing Billionaires by Victor Haghani and James White. Suppose you have a starting wealth of $1,000. You are allowed to flip a coin that is loaded with a 60% chance of landing heads, and 40% of landing tails. You can make a bet of any fraction of your wealth from 1% to 100%. What is the optimal fraction of the bet that would allow you to reach as high of a payout as possible after 25 bets?There are two lenses for looking at this problem. One is through the lens of expected value or average outcome. The expected value is defined as the total of the probability of each outcome times the value of each outcome. The full equation is the following https://preview.redd.it/uttiopa6123d1.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=93b471519244a3b6ea05f06f7c04219fd878a927 In which:
So perhaps the median outcome would be a better choice here? We are clearly not looking to just maximize the profit, but also maximize the profit gauging the potential loss we can incur when we are unlucky with the coins. Therefore, perhaps we should maximize our money in the event that we are neither lucky or unlucky with the coins? Using median, 25th percentile and 75th percentile, and now we have a surprisingly complicated picture.
But would the optimal bet size for everybody be 20%? Not quite. Looking at the table again, and it would not be surprising to see that some people are uncomfortable with 20%:
https://preview.redd.it/28hwzvfe123d1.png?width=1521&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8fd6da8a0593bf81c6f5b348beec6ca067b581c 100% BTC example As a fun exercise, assume that we believe in the power law of Bitcoin, dictating that it would return 33% / year over the next 10 years, while the historical volatility of Bitcoin is 77%. This basically converts a 100% BTC portfolio into a bet size of 84% and a coin toss of 70/30. The median outcome of your portfolio after 25 years (similar to 25 coin tosses) would be the following:
The Utility of Wealth: Losing money hurts much more than gaining money💸But how do we model different levels of risk-tolerance across different people? For this point, there are some common principles:
Due to the law of diminishing utility, if loss = gain, then pain > joy Kahnemann quotes captures the essence of expected utility (happiness), but does not help us determine the level of risk tolerance. The phrase “twice as powerful” does not apply to everyone. What if it is 3 times or 4 times as powerful for risk averse people, while only 1.5 as powerful for risk-tolerant people? For this, we need another variable to determine the level of risk tolerance. Here is the complete formula of the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA), which represents the amount of utility given wealth relative to the base level https://preview.redd.it/lvnzb6nl123d1.png?width=334&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9492e6b6a7686abb1d2ebe6a769edf130233d9c In which:
https://preview.redd.it/4runyy3n123d1.png?width=367&format=png&auto=webp&s=75dd7ba33e4a7d55367df8896db59eaa12f94a07 Let’s visualize our utility functions with different values of gamma https://preview.redd.it/nltbkrso123d1.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=913879a3ca464b079a3df26db1d0bb2f228333f3 We can see that:
https://preview.redd.it/ch4aj9gr123d1.png?width=1174&format=png&auto=webp&s=1299e5ad7b8fc68d3eebbcef779cec962358efa0 Now, let’s visualize the different levels of utility at different bet size to figure out what is the optimal bet size given different risk tolerance. https://preview.redd.it/por4xlxz123d1.png?width=1533&format=png&auto=webp&s=2301e6112834ad1fc397a0ead6fb660b22c3dc54 Look at this stuff, isn’t it neat? This neatly explains why some people might prefer betting 10%, while others might feel more comfortable with 38%. That is because this level of bet truly optimizes their internal level of happiness based on their own risk tolerance! We now have a way to determine the optimal allocation based on the the odds and our own gamma. Or more broadly, given an expected risk, expected return and a personal level of tolerance, we have a framework to determine the size of the bet that would maximize our happiness! A few final notes:
100% BTC example Back to the person who bets 100% on BTC, which is again equivalent to a 84% bet on a 70/30 coin. This is the expected level of happiness of that person.
You might have noticed that the expected utility framework will produce very negative numbers when the ending wealth is nearing 0. This is a fair criticism of the expected utility framework, especially in the case of near total loss (Is a person who lost 99.9% of their wealth that much more unhappy than someone with 99%?). But given there have been cases of life-threatening circumstances due to near total loss of wealth, we can all agree that sizing our investment based on our risk tolerance to avoid getting near that level of loss is something that we should treat seriously. Finding your inner gamma🔍Okay, if you have read until this point and are convinced that determining risk tolerance is important, let’s find our own gamma. Now, the issue with the CRRA framework is that the utility value appears kind of abstract. What does an increase of 0.50 utility actually mean to us? And how does it help us determine our gamma?Fortunately for us, we can frame our question in a different way to decide our gamma value. Notice that for someone with gamma = 1, their expected utility would be 0 if they bet around 40%, meaning that if they face the problem of picking a bet size for tossing a 60/40 coin 25 times, they are basically ambivalent between not participating in the game at all, and participate the game at bet size of 40%. This number is 20.60% and 13.33% for gamma = 2 and gamma = 3. Thus, we can ask the following questions: Given that you have $1000 and are invited to place bet on a 60/40 coin 25 times, how much money would make you ambivalent between playing and not playing the game?But even that is a little bit abstract! Let me place it in a few more realistic scenarios! Assuming that you currently have $100,000 net worth. Please take a moment to answer the following questions honestly and truthfully. Question 1 You have a choice between a certain amount or a 1% chance to win $100,000 and a 99% chance to win $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
You have a choice between paying a certain amount for insurance or having a 1% chance of losing $50,000 and a 99% chance of losing $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between paying the premium and not paying it?
You have a choice between getting paid a guaranteed amount, or performing a coin toss in which there is a 50% chance to win $50,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
You are forced to play a game where there is a 50% chance to win $10,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000, unless you pay a fee. What amount of fee would make you ambivalent between paying the fee and playing the game?
The answer a, b, c, d will match up with γ = 0.5, γ = 1, γ = 2 and γ = 3 respectively. Putting everything together📊Okay. Now that I know my own gamma, how much of my money should I put in BTC? Remember that the optimal bet size also depends on the odds too! For a gamma = 1, if the coin is 60/40, then you should bet 20%. If the coin is 70/30, then you should bet 40%. If the coin is 100/0, then you should clearly bet everything!Thus, one way we can think about the sizing of BTC is to convert its expected return into a coin toss. I think it would be safe to assume a conservative case that BTC has the same amount of volatility that it has previously, which is 77%. Now, depending on how much you believe in BTC, you will have a different notion of expected return. If you believe in the Power Law, then the next 10 years would bring approximately 33% return per annum. I personally used a more conservative 20% annual return for my calculation. From that point, subtract the return by about 4% (to cancel out the risk-free return of treasury bills), you can use the expected return and volatility to back calculate the coin toss odds and the equivalent bet size. I’ll spare you the math on this one and simply show you the different odd and bet size, given the different levels of expected return as the following.
This is just the beginning🚀If you make it this far, I hope you are convinced to take the sizing decision seriously. Expected Utility is truly a powerful framework to help you make sizing decisions not just in bitcoin, but also in so many other aspects of life stocks, bonds, mortgages, exiting the IPO, etc.And this is just the beginning. How should our BTC be if we now have an additional asset class like stock on the table? What about other cryptos? How much should I keep and how much should I exit if my coins are already 10x? These are all crucial questions that we will have to leave to future additions of the series. What was your gamma and your optimal allocation? Was it lower or higher than what you expected? Did you feel overexposed or underexposed in your current allocation of BTC? Let me know in the comments below. |
2024.05.28 01:20 forthelove13 Alright whose ready for a book? Does Matt change the narrative?
*get the popcorn. It’s LONG! And no I don’t care. 🤷♀️ I simply recorded my thoughts while I binged the show. Yes I have a lot of time on my hands right now recovering from spinal surgery. (I also walked 3.5 miles today, my longest yet!! Big day!!) No I normally can’t do this and I kept trying to shorten it but you know what?! I don’t care about your judgement ha. submitted by forthelove13 to LittlePeopleBigWorld [link] [comments] I highly recommend reading my last post to give more context here. Enjoy! I started this just to see if the narrative we know “the boys are lazy and entitled brats, who are withholding their grandchildren from Matt and caryn because they are mad they didn’t get the farm” was true or Matts narrative. I have my own thoughts on this, but I wanted proof that Matt is changing the narrative as zach states before I officially decided. Here goes! -Matt offers to buy Amy out for the rest of the farm (she already sold a little to him) and her shares of the business with an expiration date of December 2019. Amy doesn’t take it. -Jeremy comes in may of 2020 and places a bid to buy the farm and it doesn’t happen SUMMER OF 2020 -Zach tells Matt he is ready to throw their name in the ring to buy the farm -Matt has zach help encourage his mom to officially sell it off to him. He tells Tori once his dad buys his mom out it will make whoever buys the farm next more simple and Tori says “yeah cleaner for sure”. PAUSE: these are the quotes that Matt makes about Zach when he is trying to get Zach’s help to get the full farm. 1. “Zach is stepping up and currently keeps up with the maintenance and tours at pumpkin season” 2. “I know how much Zach does on the farm.” 3. “You are always humbled as parents when your kids want to carry on a family legacy” 4. “I have noticed Zach has stepped it up on the farm in the last 2 years.” 6. “Zach has really done a lot around here and both boys have made a lot of contributions…he doesn’t just say it… he’s been putting in the work!” (Zach also says he knows his dad sees the work he puts in)
PAUSE: During this time, Zach invites Matt over to his house to see the sandbox. Zach and Tori both come across as awkward but kind. Tori tells Zach to show Matt her ultrasound, they were all laughing. (Matt knows he is putting the farm up for sale and doesn’t talk to Zach about it in person.) Zach said it was good to have him there, we are learning the new normal and we are good where it is right now. Both say things went well and they are taking strides in the right direction.
I think this is one of the most important parts of all of this. this next part was a convo amy and Matt had 3 DAYS prior to the farm being put up. - Amy confronts Matt in the price, saying he knows the kids can’t afford that and Matt said “they knew the family discount” - Amy tells him she wasn’t stupid and knows they used an old assessment for their sale. They BOTH knew she left money on the table to pass along to the boys - Matt says the boys didn’t like that it was just 16 acres and he couldn’t make it more because there are more kids - Amy hit on the legacy dream HE built in their heads their whole lives - Amy tells him he has to take responsibility - He said he does take responsibility (my own side eye at Matt here) - Matt says that the feeling of entitlement ruined it for him. Amy asked him what that means and he says that they expected to get it for free, the work, theyre not going to work for it, take care of it. - Amy says (WHAT WE HAVE ALL BEEN THINKING) “what work? If you are selling it who cares what they do? Thats not your work…” - Matt ignores that and says “well it was the entitlement along the way, from the the beginning of time with the broken windows, there was a lot of entitlement. I get they were trying to have a lot of fun, but those kids tore the shit out of the place and you know that weighed on me.” Amy says “you can’t blame that on the kids. You would come to me complaining that the kids are spoiled and I told you then you can’t blame that on the kids. You aren’t born spoiled.” -They go on to fight about which one of them spoiled them more (Matt buying them atvs) -Matt says he was the disciplinarian and tried to FULLY point at amy for everything - Then Matt says “Amy tries to live in the past” after saying what the boys did on the farm 15+ years ago hit him hard - Amy and Zach have both said the biggest issue is that he doesn’t take ownership for his part in this all. Ok PAUSE: this is all RIGHT before Matt puts the house up for sale and posts this(only adding important parts): "My ultimate hope was that the entire Roloff Farms property would stay in our family for generations to come". Keeping that dream alive at this point in time was just not meant to be. Unfortunately, Roloff Farm farm cannot be legally divided into multiple parcels. My twin boys decided not to consider working together toward a possible joint sale. Both of them (along with their growing families) had moved on to other interests and investments.... and even tho a substantial family discount and a "gift of equity" was offered by both Amy and I.... (and I still owe Amy a bundle of money) they decided individually that the timing was not right for them to purchase a part of the farm at this time. Based on that, turning the big 60 in my cranky old body, the continuing maintenance/demands of the farm- the difficult decision was made so I could take steps toward my retirement goals.” Zach comments ON THIS POST (and note prior to this they at a minimum we’re still seeing each other and glad things were healing) "Once again like he has for most of his life not taking responsibility for his own actions and blaming others. Dragging the family drama that he created and then manipulate the fan base to make himself come out okay. This post his a new shocking low of cowardice and manipulation of his family and kids for his own gain” Ok now my thoughts: Guys this WHOLE THINGS HAS LITTLE to do with the sale of the farm. The whole thing is at most 25% who got the farm. The rest can be understood with a few things.
Matt saw dollar signs. Matt got caught up in the post COVID numbers. Matt… got greedy. Matt was willing to risk his entire families relationships so that he could build a mansion 400ft away from that house. Matt was willing to risk it all because the family time and time again (like his affair…) forgive him without him actually making changes. He will say he wasn’t perfect to appease viewers- but if he doesn’t change he wasn’t sorry for them. Ps. Matt says he can’t play favorites and have Jacob a 1960 VW bug -once owned by his grandpa for his 25th birthday. (And also, I love this for Jacob because man that kid has been through it.. he deserves this. But it shows we aren’t soooo worried about playing favorites…) |
2024.05.26 23:26 Important-Party-9813 no contact for the 3rd what time
2024.05.26 22:29 littlelulumcd Billboard's Woman of the Decade award: Revisiting Taylor's speech
As discussed in my most recent post, I’m continuing my journey of revisiting Taylor’s past. I think it is one of the keys to understanding the story Taylor tried to tell before and the story she is telling today. submitted by littlelulumcd to GaylorSwift [link] [comments] Also, in the words of the Manuscript: And the years passedBefore I get to the speech, a reminder on some events that took place before the Woman of the Decade award was given to Taylor. Speech context Taylor announced her plan to rerecord her first six albums on August 21, 2109 - ✌🏻days before Lover was released. The Billboard Woman of the Decade ceremony took place on December 12, 2109. AKA, the night before Taylor turned 30. I mentioned in my AMA post that I’m not sure when these types of awards are decided, but I can’t help thinking about what could have been if this award was given to Taylor post coming out. And what that might have looked like. In the lead up to the AMAs, Taylor had a public battle with both SBs because they wouldn’t grant her permission to sing any songs from her first six albums when she performed at the awards show. On November 14th, Taylor tweeted about the fight and then, rightly or wrongly, Taylor asked her fans to let the SBs know how they felt about that decision. Swifties definitely answered that call. Four days later, Big Machine granted her permission to perform any song she wanted - at least for that one night. How lucky for her 🙄 Speech Analysis In the spirit of full disclosure, what first caught my eye about Taylor’s speech is her outfit. While yes, I do think she looks amazing lol, I thought her outfit was purple which would have pointed to my theory that “Speak Now connects to everything”, but my research tells me the outfit is a dark blue. (Unhinged 🤡 theory: maybe the outfit really is purple, and this is the origin of the Taylor trying to convince us that her blood in the Anti-Hero video is midnight blue instead of glittery purple, hahahaha) That being said, even though the outfit isn’t purple, I want to note that her hair is in a braid. There have been a lot of theories about what braids can mean, or what Taylor is trying to signal when she wears one. Braids have been showing up for a while. For the purposes of this look back, I want to point a recent post from u/Kit10phish. Specifically this part of what they wrote: I subscribe to theI definitely agree with this take, and I also think the theory extends to more than lyrics. I think there is a lot the Billboard’s Woman of the Decade speech that (either planned or not), foreshadows and ties together things we’ve seen play out over the last 5 years. We know at this point that Taylor had decided to rerecord her first six albums. I also think Ms. Mastermind had a plan for how she thought it would play out and also had a plan to make sure she felt she could come out at the end ,or, within the rerecording process. Obviously COVID threw a wrench into those plans - I don’t think folklore and evermore were planned. I don’t even necessarily believe that she had Midnights or TTPD fully formed at this point, but I do think she had some idea of what she wanted to do. With all of that in mind, let’s get to the speech. If you want to read a transcript of it, you can here. I’m not going to go through everything, instead I will highlight what I think is relevant. If you think I’ve missed anything, feel free to let me know! When sharing quotes, I will be bolding certain parts for emphasis. I was going to go chronologically at first, but I want discuss at the top what I think is a big elephant in the room given TK’s response to the shitty comments his teammate made. Here is what TK said: “I call him Harry, I might be the only person who calls him Harry,” he said. “That just tells you, I mean, I’ve known him for seven-plus, eight-plus years and I cherish him as a teammate… He’s treated friends and family that I’ve introduced to him with nothing but respect and kindness and that’s how he treats everyone.”And here is what Taylor said about Scooter Braun during her Woman of the Decade speech I’m fairly certain he knew exactly how I would feel about it though. And let me just say that the definition of the toxic male privilege in our industry is people saying, ‘But he’s always been nice to me,’ when I’m raising valid concerns about artists and their rights to own their music. And of course he’s nice to you. If you’re in this room, you have something he needs.I don’t expect Taylor to have a response to what TK said - and I don’t even believe she should be held accountable for what he said, a stance I’ve maintained since the MH era. Men need to be held accountable for what they say, not the women in their life - buuuuuuuuuuuuut, with all that in mind, I hope Taylor remembers making this speech because her boy is doing exactly what she called out. Almost word for word. I think Taylor would do well to remember what she said when she stood on a stage calling out the people in her life who said that about SB. And I hope she is taking TK to task for his lack of courage. I don’t think the controversy with TK’s teammate is manufactured to play into Taylor’s narrative, but I do think if Taylor does distance herself from him because of this, I would be OK with that. In fact, in some ways I think she needs to, otherwise she should rightfully get called out for being a hypocrite. Let’s address the second elephant in the room, Billie Eilish. If you aren’t caught up, there seems to be some shade coming from Billie/her camp about Taylor. I very much dislike when female artists are pitted against each other (something Taylor has called the media out for in the past) because when say, Kendrick and Drake are “feuding” the language around what is happening is very different when women are having a public disagreement. That all being said, nothing seems to be coming from Taylor’s camp and from what I’ve seen, the comments Billie made about three hour concerts was taken out of context. I also think Billie’s manager (who liked a twitter thread calling out Taylor for blocking other artists), could be making a point that Billie herself doesn’t believe. Much like the rebuttal for the NYT’s Gaylor piece seemed to come from people in Taylor’s camp, not necessarily from Taylor herself. Before Taylor discuss Billie in her speech, she names a number of newer female artists in the music industry that she is a fan of and Billie is included on that list And I see that fire in the newer faces in our music industry whose work I absolutely love. I see it in Lizzo, Rosalia, Tayla Parx, Hayley Kiyoko, King Princess, Camila Cabello, Halsey, Megan Thee Stallion, Princess Nokia, Nina Nesbitt, Sigrid, Normani, H.E.R., Maggie Rogers, Becky G, Dua Lipa, Ella Mai, Billie Eilish. And so many other amazing women who are making music right now.This is what she had to say about Billie specifically This speech I’m referring to was on my 25th birthday. I’m about to turn 30 tonight, woo! But my exact quote during the speech was, ‘I really just feel like we need to continue to try to offer something to a younger generation of musicians, because somewhere right now your future Woman of the Year is probably sitting in a piano lesson or in a girls’ choir “and today right now we need to take care of her.’Sure, a lot of things could have happened in the last 5 years, and maybe Taylor and Billie do have “beef”, or, it could be that the music/tabloid industry is trying to create bad blood where none exists. With those two points out of the way, let me get to the other parts of the speech that caught my attention. Let’s start with the cringe. Oh, the cringe. I am doing my best to embrace my own cringe because I have a lot of it, but hoo boy, the speech has some very cringey moments. I think her points are valid of course, but I also think she is performing. I think she is still processing what happened to her with the masters sale/failed coming out attempt, but she doesn’t want people to know the pain she was in and potentially what she has planned. So instead, she comes across as over the top. Some of her posturing reminds me of the meme that Better than Revenge/SN Taylor was/is scary. Specifically I’d see people point to her reaction at around the one minute mark of this video Which further reminds me of the quote from Taylor’s Time Person of the Year interview “Ultimately, we can convolute it all we want, or try to overcomplicate it, but there’s only one question." Here, she adopts a booming voice. “Are you not entertained?”Like, what was the reason for that? lol Again, these examples seem to point to Taylor performing and/or hiding the true intent of what she’s talking about. Now, let’s discuss this possible “aha” moment I had When this decade began I was 20 years oldWhich made me think of Daylight I've been sleeping so long in a 20-year dark nightI wonder if that reference in Daylight isn’t about a timespan, but a reference to Taylor at 20 years old. That is the age she finished writing Speak Now. Also, the age when I think she decided to stay closeted instead of writing songs about girls, like she wanted. Daylight already breaks my heart because it was the original name for TS7 and what many people (myself included) believe was her coming out song. She thought when Daylight was released she’d finally be out of the closeting darkness she’d been in since she was 20 years old. And then, she wasn’t. As a quick side note, there are at least two other references to 20 years in Taylor’s music that I think could be a reference to Taylor deciding to closet at that age https://preview.redd.it/oynjd0z4ut2d1.png?width=1266&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbcf43e89988784527f7071faef30aa6a05f2340 Moving on to what I think is a prelude to folklore I saw that people love to explain away a woman’s success in the music industry, and I saw something in me change due to this realization. This was the decade when I became a mirror for my detractors. Whatever they decided I couldn’t do is exactly what I didThis is like the thesis statement for mirrorball. Not only that though, in the following sentence she tells us that if someone tells her she can’t do something (like stopping her multiple times from coming out as an example for no reason whatsoever), she is going to take that as a challenge and do it anyway. It could also be a reference to a lot of the mirrors/mirror imagery/coming back around vibes that have been all over Midnights, TTPD, recent music videos, and the Eras tour. This quote I believe is referenced in the Bejeweled mv At that time I couldn’t understand why this wave of harsh criticism had hit me so hard. I believe a popular headline back then was, ‘A Swift Backlash,’ which is clever, you gotta give it to ’emLaura Dern as the stepmother in the mv: “He tired of her quite quickly or should I say swiftly?” Taylor’s response: “There it is. That joke never gets old. Thank you, thank you so much.” Taylor directly references Speak Now in her speech So then I decided that I would be the only songwriter on my third album, Speak Now, and that I would tour constantly, work on my vocals every day, and perfect my stamina in a live show. I decided I would be what they said I couldn’t be. I didn’t know then that soon enough people would decide on something else I wasn’t quite doing right, and then the circle would keep going on and on and rolling along and I would keep accommodating, over-correcting, in an effort to appease my critics.And what prey tell, Taylor, are you referencing here? 👀🌈 This part gave me a chuckle They’re saying I’m dating too much in my 20s? Okay, I’ll stop, I’ll just be single. For years.For years you say? When exactly? lol There was about a two year gap between her publicly dating Harry Styles and Calvin Harris, but the way Taylor says it implies something longer than two years. Maybe this was her planting seeds for the public to start questioning her public narrative? 🤷🏻♀️ Here’s another head scratcher for me Now it’s that I’m showing you too many pictures of me with my friends, okay, I can stop doing that too. Now I’m actually a calculated manipulator rather than a smart businesswoman? Okay, I’ll disappear from public view for years. Now I’m being cast a villain to you? Okay, here’s an album called Reputation and there are lots of snakes everywhere.I find it very interesting she is saying that disappearing from the public eye was a calculated move as opposed to a decision she made with Joe to keep their relationship private. Again, in contradiction to her public narrative - especially post Toe breakup. She has amazing things to say about Lana del Ray, who we now know she worked with for Midnights. I’ve watched as one of my favorite artists of this decade, Lana Del Rey, was ruthly criticized…in her early career and then slowly but surely she turned into, in my opinion, the most influential artist in pop. Her vocal stylings, her lyrics, her aesthetics, they’ve been echoed and repurposed in every corner of music, and this year her incredible album is nominated for Album of the Year at the Grammys because she just kept making art. And that example should inspire all of us, that the only way forward is forward motion. That we shouldn’t let obstacles like criticism slow down the creative forces that drive us.The highlighted line is the opposite of what she says in the Manuscript, which I referenced at the beginning of this post. I think her mindset has changed since she started rerecording her first six albums and since she recorded the new albums she released since this speech. I think Taylor has realized that she can’t move forward without addressing the past and she can’t move on until she’s corrected the past, which I think she is doing now. This quote certainly hits different now Lately there’s been a new shift that has affected me personally and that I feel is a potentially harmful force in our industry, and as your resident loud person, I feel the need to bring it up.Hahahahaha. Sorry, Tay, I love you and I’ve defended you for not being outspoken, but this is objectively funny. And does feed into the narrative that Taylor is only loud on something that affects her. In the gay way though, that line is 👀🌈 To Taylor’s credit, for this speech, she has no issues calling out, by name, those who she feels have benefitted from the sale of her masers and how they have taken her art from her, art that she had her hand in creating. For me, this quote foreshadows the use of You Don’t Own Me before the Eras concert starts. The added context of Lesley Gore being a closeted lesbian has always felt very on point as well. The fact is that private equity is what enabled this man to think, according to his own social media post, that he could buy me. But I’m obviously not going willingly. Yet the most amazing thing was to discover that it would be the women in our industry who would have my back and show me the most vocal support at one of the most difficult times, and I will never, ever forget it. Like, ever.Taylor wanting to change the music industry is another reason I think she will come out. I know how wronged she feels by it, never mind the stories we’ve heard from other musicians, and even scarier, the stories we never hear. And those are the stories we need to think about every day as we do our jobs within this industry. The ones where people’s dreams come true and they get to create music and play it for people. The ones where fans feel a connection to music that makes their day easier, makes their night more fun, makes their love feel more sacred, or their heartache feel less isolating. The ones where all of you in this room stand as an example for someone else in the next generation who loves the same thing that we love. Music. And no matter what else enters the conversation, we will always bring it back to music.Finally let’s get to the last bit of seed planting that i think Taylor did this night. During her Eras show in Melbourne on February 18th, Taylor announced a change to the acoustic set I’ve been thinking, I want to be as creative as possible with the acoustic set moving forward. I don’t wanna limit anything and say, ‘Oh, if I’ve played a song before I can’t play it again.’ So from now on, I don’t wanna take any paint colors out of the paint box of colors … I want to be able to play songs more than once if I feel like it, and I wanna be able to make changes to songsThe bolded part makes me 👀🌈 lol Since Paris N1, she has made a point when discussing the acoustic set to say rules aren’t for her anymore 👀🌈 This is the last line of her Woman of the Decade speech And as for me, lately I’ve been focusing less on doing what they say I can’t do and more on doing whatever the hell I want.If that line is foreshadowing, then I think we are all in for one hell of a ride. Starting with Pride this month and June 13th in particular 🌈🤡 |
2024.05.26 14:33 sonmanutd Prep for the bull run (pt.3): How much of your net worth to bet on BTC
TLDR: This very much depends on the person’s risk tolerance. For a typically risk averse person with gamma = 2.0, and assume a return of BTC to be 20% annually and historical volatility of 77%, one should hold 12% of their allocation in BTC. Under-betting might lead to regret, while over-betting can lead to disastrous crash in happiness should the price reduce. Thus, determining your correct risk tolerance (gamma), is crucial to having a healthy investment life. Take this quiz to determine your risk tolerance, and then use it to look up the allocation table at the end of the article. submitted by sonmanutd to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments] IntroductionHow much of your net worth should you bet on Bitcoin? Here in cryptocurrency subreddit, we are all firm believers in BTC over the long term. Unsustainable fiscal policy and endless money printing from central banks all around the world have been lasting unabated since 1970, while no attempts at serious reforms are on the horizon. It all points towards the need to keep the fruits of our labors into a decentralized asset that not only is already the hardest to make, but also exponentially getting harder to make over time. And that asset is Bitcoin.Yet, there has been surprisingly little consensus on how much of our net worth should be invested in Bitcoin. A walk around the subreddit shows all kinds of different numbers: 1%, 5%, 10%, 30% all the way to 100%. Some people suggest a rule of thumb like “only invest money you can afford to lose”, subjecting your allocation to wild swings that would wake you up at night checking Coinbase every minute for price movements. It turns out, sizing your investment is just as important as deciding what to invest. How should we think about risk and uncertainty? What is the allocation that would allow us to enjoy the returns, while not being bothered by the wild swings of the market? What is the framework that helps us pick the sweet spot between regretting that we don’t invest enough, and regretting that we invest too much? How to truly be happy with our return of crypto assets, knowing that we have decided the best among the “what ifs”? Why not 100% BTC?But first, let us ask ourselves a simple question. If we love Bitcoin so much and already believe that Bitcoin will deliver returns superior to all other investments, why don’t all of us invest 100% in BTC? In fact, some people do. To them, Bitcoin is already the last currency, the measuring stick that every single worth of labor and asset should convert to. If you are among this group, this article is not relevant for you.The reality is that the vast majority of Bitcoin investors do so because they promise high returns relative to the fiat that they use daily for their daily needs. For all its flaws and inflations, the US dollar is still used in everyday life. People still spend 40 hours / week at work, knowing that they will have the same paycheck every 2 weeks for the rest of the year. The price of bananas and bread are stable day after day, even though they keep shrinking 5% every year. This perception of stability and convenience means that imagining wealth as the total amount of fiat remains hard-wired into many people for the time being. And this means that the wild swing accompanying Bitcoin price is a major psychological baggage to all investors who see their wealth in dollars. A 100% Bitcoin allocation means that on a certain day, they might see a 5% drop or 5% gain in their net worth. They have to maintain their conviction during the long period of 2021 - 2023 where Bitcoin lost 80% from peak value, before finally recovering in late 2023. This can wreak havoc on a person’s psychological well being ranging from constantly being distracted from work to checking their portfolio to unloading their anger and stress to their wives and kids. Worst of all, the person might be emotionally tempted to panic sell at the worst moment, right before the price recovers, triggering a torrent of regrets. All this points to the fact that we need a mathematical model to help us reason about not just the expected return, but also the potential loss that we incur so that we can size our bets just enough to both maximize return and minimize regrets. This is a kind of decision that gamblers have to think about on a constant basis, so let’s turn to them to see what we can learn! Thinking like a gamblerHow does a gambler size his bet? I’ll bring up this classic example from the book The Missing Billionaires by Victor Haghani and James White. Suppose you have a starting wealth of $1,000. You are allowed to flip a coin that is loaded with a 60% chance of landing heads, and 40% of landing tails. You can make a bet of any fraction of your wealth from 1% to 100%. What is the optimal fraction of the bet that would allow you to reach as high of a payout as possible after 25 bets?There are two lenses for looking at this problem. One is through the lens of expected value or average outcome. The expected value is defined as the total of the probability of each outcome times the value of each outcome. The full equation is the following: https://preview.redd.it/b32r4c3ykr2d1.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=6dfe68476998d40723a0a15739f033dcfb6c1657 In which:
So perhaps the median outcome would be a better choice here? We are clearly not looking to just maximize the profit, but also maximize the profit gauging the potential loss we can incur when we are unlucky with the coins. Therefore, perhaps we should maximize our money in the event that we are neither lucky or unlucky with the coins? Using median, 25th percentile and 75th percentile, and now we have a surprisingly complicated picture.
But would the optimal bet size for everybody be 20%? Not quite. Looking at the table again, and it would not be surprising to see that some people are uncomfortable with 20%:
https://preview.redd.it/buxq90v8kr2d1.png?width=1521&format=png&auto=webp&s=32c4a8808bbf083e32ce6400d9e3523e60f0e7aa 100% BTC example As a fun exercise, assume that we believe in the power law of Bitcoin, dictating that it would return 33% / year over the next 10 years, while the historical volatility of Bitcoin is 77%. This basically converts a 100% BTC portfolio into a bet size of 84% and a coin toss of 70/30. The median outcome of your portfolio after 25 years (similar to 25 coin tosses) would be the following:
The Utility of Wealth: Losing money hurts much more than gaining moneyBut how do we model different levels of risk-tolerance across different people? For this point, there are some common principles:
If Loss = Gain, then Pain > Joy Kahnemann quotes captures the essence of expected utility (happiness), but does not help us determine the level of risk tolerance. The phrase “twice as powerful” does not apply to everyone. What if it is 3 times or 4 times as powerful for risk averse people, while only 1.5 as powerful for risk-tolerant people? For this, we need another variable to determine the level of risk tolerance. Here is the complete formula of the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA), which represents the amount of utility given wealth relative to the base level https://preview.redd.it/neb9ib34lr2d1.png?width=334&format=png&auto=webp&s=bae758d70afde07e38f1f3c60b2c474dbd199a4b In which:
https://preview.redd.it/t7xmpb68lr2d1.png?width=367&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa0ba76930db0d8684e8e9359de728a7bb880ff9 Let’s visualize our utility functions with different values of gamma https://preview.redd.it/q8bnbiejlr2d1.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=d313de359d0a7db26bf185aaf9d86793f31cfa18 We can see that:
https://preview.redd.it/5hmr4dlqlr2d1.png?width=1174&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c2c97d6d9857be4c2e82ca1f6e90557547edd01 Now, let’s visualize the different levels of utility at different bet size to figure out what is the optimal bet size given different risk tolerance. Expected utility given different γ and bet size Look at this stuff, isn’t it neat? This neatly explains why some people might prefer betting 10%, while others might feel more comfortable with 38%. That is because this level of bet truly optimizes their internal level of happiness based on their own risk tolerance! We now have a way to determine the optimal allocation based on the the odds and our own gamma. Or more broadly, given an expected risk, expected return and a personal level of tolerance, we have a framework to determine the size of the bet that would maximize our happiness! A few final notes:
100% BTC example Back to the person who bets 100% on BTC, which is again equivalent to a 84% bet on a 70/30 coin. This is the expected level of happiness of that person.
You might have noticed that the expected utility framework will produce very negative numbers when the ending wealth is nearing 0. This is a fair criticism of the expected utility framework, especially in the case of near total loss (Is a person who lost 99.9% of their wealth that much more unhappy than someone with 99%?). But given there have been cases of life-threatening circumstances due to near total loss of wealth, we can all agree that sizing our investment based on our risk tolerance to avoid getting near that level of loss is something that we should treat seriously. Finding your inner gammaOkay, if you have read until this point and are convinced that determining risk tolerance is important, let’s find our own gamma. Now, the issue with the CRRA framework is that the utility value appears kind of abstract. What does an increase of 0.50 utility actually mean to us? And how does it help us determine our gamma?Fortunately for us, we can frame our question in a different way to decide our gamma value. Notice that for someone with gamma = 1, their expected utility would be 0 if they bet around 40%, meaning that if they face the problem of picking a bet size for tossing a 60/40 coin 25 times, they are basically ambivalent between not participating in the game at all, and participate the game at bet size of 40%. This number is 20.60% and 13.33% for gamma = 2 and gamma = 3. Thus, we can ask the following questions: Given that you have $1000 and are invited to place bet on a 60/40 coin 25 times, how much money would make you ambivalent between playing and not playing the game?But even that is a little bit abstract! Let me place it in a few more realistic scenarios! Assuming that you currently have $100,000 net worth. Please take a moment to answer the following questions honestly and truthfully. Question 1 You have a choice between a certain amount or a 1% chance to win $100,000 and a 99% chance to win $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
You have a choice between paying a certain amount for insurance or having a 1% chance of losing $50,000 and a 99% chance of losing $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between paying the premium and not paying it?
You have a choice between getting paid a guaranteed amount, or performing a coin toss in which there is a 50% chance to win $50,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
You are forced to play a game where there is a 50% chance to win $10,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000, unless you pay a fee. What amount of fee would make you ambivalent between paying the fee and playing the game?
The answer a, b, c, d will match up with γ = 0.5, γ = 1, γ = 2 and γ = 3 respectively. Putting everything togetherOkay. Now that I know my own gamma, how much of my money should I put in BTC? Remember that the optimal bet size also depends on the odds too! For a gamma = 1, if the coin is 60/40, then you should bet 20%. If the coin is 70/30, then you should bet 40%. If the coin is 100/0, then you should clearly bet everything!Thus, one way we can think about the sizing of BTC is to convert its expected return into a coin toss. I think it would be safe to assume a conservative case that BTC has the same amount of volatility that it has previously, which is 77%. Now, depending on how much you believe in BTC, you will have a different notion of expected return. If you believe in the Power Law, then the next 10 years would bring approximately 33% return per annum. I personally used a more conservative 20% annual return for my calculation. From that point, subtract the return by about 4% (to cancel out the risk-free return of treasury bills), you can use the expected return and volatility to back calculate the coin toss odds and the equivalent bet size. I’ll spare you the math on this one and simply show you the different odd and bet size, given the different levels of expected return as the following. Feel free to visit this public notebook to input your own expected return and volatility and have your calculation of the coin toss.
This is just the beginningIf you make it this far, I hope you are convinced to take the sizing decision seriously. Expected Utility is truly a powerful framework to help you make sizing decisions not just in bitcoin, but also in so many other aspects of life stocks, bonds, mortgages, exiting the IPO, etc.And this is just the beginning. How should our BTC be if we now have an additional asset class like stock on the table? What about other cryptos? How much should I keep and how much should I exit if my coins are already 10x? These are all crucial questions that we will have to leave to future additions of the series. What was your gamma and your optimal allocation? Was it lower or higher than what you expected? Did you feel overexposed or underexposed in your current allocation of BTC? Let me know in the comments below. |