Quotes for 25th birthady

Best of TL;DR

2013.05.15 02:22 Wiinsomniacs Best of TL;DR

The best TL;DRs of Reddit.
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2012.03.11 12:26 Digrish Pokémon conspiracies and mysteries!

A discussion forum for people to share their intellectual and insightful theories and ideas about any aspect of the Pokémon universe - be it the main video game series, spin-off games (Mystery Dungeon, etc.), TCG, the metagame, the anime, the manga, and so on.
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2011.03.13 06:20 r/INDYCAR NTT INDYCAR SERIES, INDY NXT, Indy 500, and USF Pro Champs fan community

All things related to the NTT INDYCAR SERIES — the premier open-wheel racing series in the United States — the Indianapolis 500 (Indy 500), INDY NXT, and the USF Pro Championships — featuring USF Pro 2000, USF2000, and USF Juniors.
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2024.06.06 22:44 Then_Marionberry_259 JUN 06, 2024 AMK.V AMERICAN CREEK ANNOUNCES NON-BINDING LETTER OF INTENT AND EXCLUSIVITY WITH CUNNINGHAM MINING REGARDING PROPOSED PLAN OF ARRANGEMENT

JUN 06, 2024 AMK.V AMERICAN CREEK ANNOUNCES NON-BINDING LETTER OF INTENT AND EXCLUSIVITY WITH CUNNINGHAM MINING REGARDING PROPOSED PLAN OF ARRANGEMENT
https://preview.redd.it/y7pep40rj05d1.png?width=3500&format=png&auto=webp&s=628f6c6abac3bdaa1519c1df39dd6c502bd5d435
Consideration of $0.43 Cdn per Common Share represents a premium of approximately 274%
Cardston, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - June 6, 2024) - American Creek Resources Ltd. (TSXV: AMK) ("American Creek" or the "Company"), announces that it has entered into a non-binding and arm's length letter of intent dated June 5, 2024 (the "LOI") with Cunningham Mining Ltd. ("Cunningham"), a private British Columbia corporation, to engage in due diligence and negotiations regarding the terms of a proposed transaction (the "Proposed Transaction") whereby Cunningham, or a subsidiary of Cunningham, would acquire all of the issued and outstanding securities of the Company. Through this proposed transaction, Cunningham would acquire control of the Company's 20% fully carried interest in the Treaty Creek Property which has an Indicated Mineral Resource of 27.87 million ounces (Moz) of AuEQ grading 1.19 g/t AuEQ and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 6.03 Moz of AuEQ grading 1.25 g/t AuEQ (see complete description below). If the parties agree to proceed with the Proposed Transaction, the Company expects the Proposed Transaction will be carried out by way of a court-approved plan of arrangement (the "Arrangement") under the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia) (the "BCBCA").
The Company's Board of Directors (the "Board"), after an extensive period of negotiation and consideration of various alternatives, has approved entry into the LOI, pursuant to which Cunningham proposes to acquire all the issued and outstanding securities of the Company, including all common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares"), at a price of $0.43 Cdn per Common Share, payable in cash (the "Consideration"). The Consideration represents a premium of approximately 274% to the $0.115 Cdn closing price of the Common Shares on the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV") on June 5, 2024 (the last trading day prior to the execution of the LOI). The LOI is non-binding and there can be no assurance that the Proposed Transaction contemplated by the LOI, or any other transaction, will be completed. Closing is subject to a number of conditions and uncertainties described below.
Darren Blaney, CEO of American Creek, stated: "We are excited that Cunningham has recognized the value and the potential of the Treaty Creek Property despite the tough junior market conditions we are currently experiencing. We believe this proposed transaction may provide not only a liquidity event for our longstanding shareholders, but also represents an opportunity for shareholders to potentially realize a 250% plus premium to the present market valuation of their equity in the company. We look forward to working with Cunningham to finalize a definitive agreement in due course that protects and provides value for our shareholders."
Ryan Cunningham, CEO of Cunningham, stated: "With this pending future transaction Cunningham Mining is ushering in the next frontier in terms of tokenization and monetization of in ground mineral resources. We are confident in the prospects of the gold, silver, and copper resources of the Treaty Creek Property and feel it will be a transformational addition to our upcoming NGTGOLD Token. Our team looks forward to the role it will play in the Golden Triangle as well as in the future of mining."
Exclusivity
The LOI provides for an exclusivity period ending at 4:00pm (Vancouver Time) on August 5, 2024 (the "Expiry Time"). Among other things, until the Expiry Time:
  • American Creek and Cunningham will deal exclusively with each other in good faith to complete all reasonable and customary due diligence and to negotiate the Definitive Agreement;
  • American Creek will continue to operate its business in the ordinary course, consistent with past practice;
  • American Creek will discontinue any existing discussions, and not initiate any discussion, regarding alternative transactions; and
  • American Creek and Cunningham will seek to negotiate a definitive agreement (the "Definitive Agreement") setting out the terms of the Arrangement.
Superior Proposals
Notwithstanding the exclusivity provisions of the LOI, the Board has negotiated customary carve outs for unsolicited, bona fide proposals that the Board determines, in good faith, would if consummated result in a superior transaction that is more favourable to shareholders of American Creek. Failure to participate in such discussions or negotiations would be inconsistent with the Board's fiduciary duties.
Structure
The final structure of the transaction will be set out in the Definitive Agreement and will be based on considerations relating to matters of applicable corporate, securities, tax and other applicable laws and regulations. The LOI is non-binding, and the Proposed Transaction is subject to due diligence, and the negotiation of definitive terms and other conditions. If the Definitive Agreement is entered into, the Company will work expeditiously to secure the requisite approval in accordance with Section 288 of the BCBCA.
Financing Failure Fee
Execution of the Definitive Agreement will be subject to, and conditional upon, Cunningham obtaining sufficient financing to consummate the Proposed Transaction in the amount of approximately $209,537,516 Cdn (the "Financing"). In the event Cunningham is unable to provide American Creek with evidence whereby certain persons have committed to provide Cunningham with the Financing prior to the Expiry Time, Cunningham shall pay and deliver to American Creek a cash payment by wire transfer of immediately available funds (the "Financing Failure Fee"). The Financing Failure Fee will be up to $115,000 Cdn and is subject to certain adjustments.
Termination Fee
The LOI will terminate upon the earlier of certain events, including:
  • the Expiry Time;
  • the execution by American Creek and Cunningham of the Definitive Agreement;
  • written notice by American Creek to Cunningham that it is terminating the LOI because the Board has determined (and either publicly announced by the Board or any other person other than Cunningham) that it has received an alternative transaction that is a superior transaction that is more favorable to the shareholders of American Creek and that failure to pursue such alternative transaction would be inconsistent with its fiduciary duties under applicable law; provided, however, that American Creek has complied with its obligations under the LOI and Cunningham does not exercise its right to match such alternative transaction within the required time frame in accordance with the LOI (the "Termination Fee Event"); or
  • the written agreement of the parties. The termination will not, however, affect the liability of any party for any prior breach of any provision of the LOI.
If a Termination Fee Event occurs, and within nine (9) calendar months of such termination:
  • an alternative transaction (and such alternative transaction is the same alternative transaction referenced above with the same counterparties) is consummated or effected; or
  • American Creek and/or any of its subsidiaries, directly or indirectly, in one or more transactions, enters into a written agreement (other than a confidentiality or standstill agreement) in respect of an alternative transaction (and such alternative transaction is the same alternative transaction referenced above with the same counterparties) and, in each case, such an Alternative Transaction is later consummated,
American Creek shall pay to (or procure the payment to) Cunningham a termination fee of $6,286,125 Cdn (the "Termination Fee") prior to, or simultaneously with, the consummation of such alternative transaction. In the event that the Termination Fee is paid in full to Cunningham (or as it directs) in the manner provided in the LOI, no other amounts will be due and payable as damages or otherwise by American Creek to Cunningham
Special Committee
A Special Committee of the Board (the "Special Committee") has been formed to consider, negotiate and, if applicable, finalize the Proposed Transaction, and to make a recommendation to the Board for approval prior to the execution of the Definitive Agreement or the submission of the Proposed Transaction to shareholders of the Company for a vote.
LOI Non-Binding
As discussions are ongoing, the Company cannot provide any assurance that it will be able to agree on the final terms of the Definitive Agreement with Cunningham. Any Proposed Transaction will be subject to, among other conditions, completion of due diligence by Cunningham, negotiation of the Definitive Agreement, a recommendation of the Special Committee, and approval by the Board. Approvals will also be required from shareholders of the Company, the Supreme Court of British Columbia (in accordance with the BCBCA), and the TSXV. The Arrangement will also be conditional upon such other customary closing conditions that may be included in the Definitive Agreement.
If a Definitive Agreement is executed, the Company expects that it will be required to hold a special meeting (the "Special Meeting") of the Company's shareholders to approve the Proposed Transaction. The Proposed Transaction is subject to receipt of the foregoing approvals and other customary closing conditions. Terms and conditions of the Proposed Transaction are expected to be disclosed in greater detail in a management information circular for the Special Meeting (the "Circular"). Following execution of the Definitive Agreement, a Circular will be mailed to the Company's shareholders. There are no finder's fees payable by American Creek in connection with the Proposed Transaction.
In the event that the Company executes a Definitive Agreement with Cunningham, copies of such Definitive Agreement and a Circular for the Special Meeting will be filed with Canadian securities regulators. Documents filed by the Company with Canadian securities regulators are available on the SEDAR+ profile of the Company at www.sedarplus.ca. Shareholders are urged to read any relevant materials when they become available. However, Shareholders do not need to take any action with respect to the Proposed Transaction at this time.
For further information please contact Kelvin Burton at:
Phone: (403)752-4040 or Email: [info@americancreek.com](mailto:info@americancreek.com).
Information relating to the Company is available on its website at www.americancreek.com.
Counsel
Fasken Martineau DuMoulin LLP is acting as the Company's legal advisor.
About American Creek and the Treaty Creek Project
American Creek is a proud partner in the Treaty Creek Project, a joint venture with Tudor Gold Corp. located in BC's prolific "Golden Triangle".
The Treaty Creek Project hosts the Goldstorm Deposit, comprising a large gold-copper porphyry system, as well as several other mineralized zones. As disclosed in the "NI-43-101 Technical Report for the Treaty Creek Project", dated April 5, 2024 prepared by Garth Kirkham Geosystems and JDS Energy & Mining Inc., the Goldstorm Deposit has an Indicated Mineral Resource of 27.87 million ounces (Moz) of AuEQ grading 1.19 g/t AuEQ (21.66 Moz gold grading 0.92 g/t, 2.87 billion pounds (Blbs) copper grading 0.18%, 128.73 Moz silver grading 5.48 g/t) and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 6.03 Moz of AuEQ grading 1.25 g/t AuEQ (4.88 Moz gold grading 1.01 g/t, 503.2 Mlb copper grading 0.15%, 28.97 Moz silver grading 6.02 g/t), with a pit constrained cut-off of 0.7 g/t AuEQ and an underground cut-off of 0.75 g/t AuEQ.
The Goldstorm Deposit has been categorized into three dominant mineral domains and several smaller mineral domains. The CS-600 domain largely consists of nested pulses of diorite intrusive stocks and hosts the majority of the copper mineralization within the Goldstorm Deposit. CS-600 has an Indicated Mineral Resource of 15.65 Moz AuEQ grading 1.22 g/t AuEQ (9.99 Moz gold grading 0.78 g/t, 2.73 Blbs copper grading 0.31%, 73.47 Moz silver grading 5.71 g/t) and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 2.86 Moz AuEQ grading 1.20 g/t AuEQ (1.87 Moz gold grading 0.79 g/t, 475.6 Mlb copper grading 0.29%, 13.4 Moz silver grading 5.63 g/t). The Goldstorm Deposit remains open in all directions and requires further exploration drilling to determine the size and extent of the Deposit.
American Creek holds a fully carried 20% interest in the Treaty Creek Project until a production notice is given, meaning that no exploration or development costs are incurred by American Creek until such time as a production notice has been issued. American Creek shareholders have a unique opportunity to avoid the dilutive effects of exploration while maintaining their full 20% exposure to one of the world's most exciting mega deposits.
The Company also holds the Austruck-Bonanza gold property located near Kamloops, BC.
About Cunningham
Cunningham Mining Ltd. (www.cunninghammining.com) has successfully completed the acquisition of the placer claims known as the 'Nugget Trap Placer Mine" in the British Columbia Mineral Title registry, covering 573.7 acres, along with the accompanying permits and authorizations. The property is situated within the Skeena Mining Division of British Columbia, Canada, in the area known as BC's Golden Triangle. The company intends to digitize this and future in ground deposits as well as operating mines and claims through the issuance of it's Digital Asset Token, NGTGOLD Token (nuggettrap.com).
Its head office is located at 10026 Pacific Centre, 25th FL, Vancouver, BC, V7Y 1B3.
Technical Information and Qualified Person
All information regarding Mineral Resource estimates, scientific disclosure, and technical information included in this news release is based upon the information included in the National Instrument 43-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101") compliant technical report entitled "NI-43-101 Technical Report for the Treaty Creek Project", dated April 5, 2024. This was prepared by Garth Kirkham Geosystems and JDS Energy & Mining Inc., each of whom is independent of American Creek within the meaning of NI 43-101 and is a "Qualified Person" as such term is defined in NI 43-101.
Mineral Resources that are not Mineral Reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. Inferred Mineral Resources are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as Mineral Reserves.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Information
All statements, other than statements of historical fact, contained in this press release constitute "forward-looking information" and "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of certain securities laws and are based on expectations and projections as of the date of this press release. Forward-looking information and forward-looking statements may relate to the Company, Cunningham, and to anticipated events or results, notably the negotiation and completion of the Proposed Transaction on terms substantially similar to those currently contemplated.
Statements regarding future results, performance, achievements, prospects, or opportunities of the Company, Cunningham, or similar statements concerning anticipated future events, results, circumstances, performance or expectations, notably the execution of a Definitive Agreement and the completion of the Proposed Transaction, as contemplated, are also forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained in this press release include, without limitation, those related to:
  • the ability of Cunningham to close the Financing;
  • the availability of a superior proposal from a prospective purchaser other than Cunningham;
  • American Creek's receipt of the Financing Failure Fee;
  • the value and potential of the Treaty Creek Property;
  • the liquidity the Proposed Transaction will provide for American Creek shareholders;
  • the ability of the Company and Cunningham to negotiate and execute the Definitive Agreement;
  • the Company's receipt of all necessary approvals (including shareholder approval, court approval, and the approvals of the TSXV);
  • the final terms of the Proposed Transaction contained in the Definitive Agreement; and
  • more generally, the quotes from the respective CEOs of American Creek and Cunningham, as well as the sections entitled "About American Creek and the Treaty Creek Project" and "About Cunningham".
Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, estimates, and projections as of the time of this press release. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonably by the Company or Cunningham as of the time of such statements, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. These estimates and assumptions may prove to be incorrect.
Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can directly or indirectly affect, and could cause, actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. There can be no assurance that the Company, the Special Committee, or the Board will be able to negotiate or approve a Definitive Agreement on terms acceptable to each of them and Cunningham. Future events could differ materially from what is currently anticipated by the Company or Cunningham.
By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that estimates, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved or that assumptions do not reflect future experience. Forward-looking statements are provided for the purpose of providing information about management's expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as a number of important risk factors and future events could cause the actual outcomes to differ materially from the beliefs, plans, objectives, expectations, anticipations, estimates, assumptions, and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements made in this press release are qualified by these cautionary statements and those made in the Company's other filings with the securities regulators of Canada including, but not limited to, the cautionary statements made in the relevant portion of the Company's Management Discussion & Analysis prepared as of April 22, 2024, for the financial year ended December 31, 2023. The foregoing list of factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive and new, unforeseeable risks may arise from time to time. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements or to explain any material difference between subsequent actual events and such forward-looking statements, except to the extent required by applicable law.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/211974
​
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2024.06.05 21:06 mochingenue [#Technoblade25] a cake, year 2. (ft. some reflections on offerings and the passage of time.)

[#Technoblade25] a cake, year 2. (ft. some reflections on offerings and the passage of time.)

birthday cake for the birthday boy ^ happy (belated) birthday!

sorry for late post, i was so disappointed in my cake that i told my friend i wouldn't post this at all, but here i am, again, late like last year. (heh, maybe it'll become kind of a tradition for me. bake a cake in good time, debate internally for days about posting it, see something that reminds me of him, cry, write the post for 3 hours, and finally post.) this year, it was mr technodad's #technoblade25 video that pushed me to post. recommended by youtube late, like, come on, algorithm! the audacity!
i'm not expecting any traction on this post at all, and in fact, i'd kinda hoping that will be the case. because, by the gods, the cake this year was a disaster! (in my book, at least) (please, be kind.)
i threw the pic into canva so it wouldn't immediately blind u from the subreddit front page. cute pigs r from canva!
i tried out a new recipe for chocolate cake that claimed to be the best ever! it came with a frosting recipe, and um. the cake was good! but the frosting didn't work out,, i wanted to pipe flowers (like last year), but the frosting broke down, and i almost did too, LOL.>! (bros i live in southeast asia 💀 heat + amateur baker + frosting = disaster)!< but i had work the next day (1st june itself), so i just had to accept the result and carry on.
but yeah, all that to say, that's why this post is late. (the cake itself was completed and consumed in a timely fashion.) i didn't want to post something so subpar in my eyes, especially when it's meant to be in loving memory. only the best for them, right? "it's the thought that counts", though, i know, someone will be telling me that if they see this. i know, i know. but i only want to share my best side, and my best work, because... all this-- the act of sharing, and the person i'm sharing it in memory of-- it all matters a lot to me. (of course, this is a personal choice of mine. also, i have more thoughts on the topic of offering things, but this post will be long as is, so i'll spare everyone the rest of my generic, been-seen-before ideas.)

so yeah, chocolate cake with chocolate frosting. his favourite.

just like last year, i shared it with friends and family. it made me smile to see that they enjoyed it. (despite its rather plain and somewhat unflattering appearance, it tastes pretty good.) wish i could share it with everyone as well.
being so fr with u rn, i haven't been feeling like myself these past few days. the weeks leading up to his birthday all seem like a blur in my memory as well. maybe it's the melancholy, maybe it's just me.
in my moments of clarity, i sometimes have this thought. i think, as the years go by, i'm getting increasingly scared of outgrowing him. "outgrowing" as in... growing older than him. it's an awful thought to me; that i, and others close to the people we lost, have to keep moving forward in linear time, while the people we cherish no longer can, and they just keep getting further and further away from us. i don't quite know how to put it in words, and i don't know how to explain the bulk of what about it upsets me, but it does. i really, really dread the day i "overtake" him in age. i feel nauseous at the thought already.
but like i said, i have to keep moving forward in linear time. he was already outstanding from early in his life. (tell me why, like, 16y.o.(?) techno knew what the magna carta is, and i only learnt it in my 20s?? comment if you know what that is) he's my role model, even now, i aspire to be as quick-witted and eloquent as he was; so a small part of it is that i'm worried i'll never be as great as him in those aspects by the time i'm his age, or even older. but i'm realizing that it's okay, because if i keep moving forward, there's still a chance that, someday, eventually, i'll get there. and that's why i should embrace the uncontrollable passage of time. (and, if this message resonates with you, the same goes to you. we can try to learn this together. even writing this myself, it feels hard to wrap my head around.)
insert skyblock quote moment...? doesnt feel exactly relevant, but...
"Skyblock teaches us that no matter how ridiculous the odds may seem, within us resides the power to overcome these challenges and achieve something beautiful. That, one day, we'll look back at where we started and be amazed by how far we've come."
still my favourite quote to this day. what an absolute gem of a man.
if you're reading this, let's treasure the past, and keep moving forward together. towards our hopes and dreams for the future, whatever that may look like to you. future me re-reading my posts, i know you think this was cringey. stop it! let a girl be sappy for once!!

happy 25th birthday, big man.

and thank you (and all the stewards of the technoblade legacy), for continuing to shine a light in life for me and many others, even now.
ok it's been 4 hours it's 3am i've proofread this post over 20 times i have to post it now or never !! we live bravely !!
also thank u sm for reading this long ahh post !! goodness gracious i think i yap too much
submitted by mochingenue to Technoblade [link] [comments]

2024.06.05 03:15 hoolu123 [Thank You] Tuesday Mail

Thank you for all the great mail!
~~
u/ninajyang Thank you for the California card! I love the playful illustration design. ☀️
u/iheartcitrus Thanks for the Texas card. Yay for April 25th! 🎥
u/t3ctim Thank you for the Mr. Rogers quote postcard! I loved the decorations too. 🦔
u/babyburkhart Thank you for the great rescueverary card! Sending love to Mr. Waffles. 🧇
u/littlemermaidxx Thank you for the "moss" color pallet! Reminds me of a Pantone. And I love these funny stickers! 🐞
u/unseenbowl Thanks for the sprintime-y card! Hope your allergies are doing better! 🌸
u/Orangewolpertinger Thanks for this beautiful art card! I appreciated the extra stickers too. 🎨
u/soxgal Thanks for sharing this great quote! I love the color of the card & envelope. 💚
submitted by hoolu123 to RandomActsofCards [link] [comments]

2024.06.04 22:14 greenman325 Goods and Services custom sneaker resole - First Impressions

First, the pictures. I had my (now discontinued) Rancourt Bennett court sneakers in cream re-soled with a welt construction.
Service: Custom Leather Resole with Welt from Goods and Services, an LA-based cobbler specializing in sneakers and modern, custom work.
The product comes with a choice of outsole, midsole, welt, and sidewall. I chose the white Vibram mini ripple outsole, white midsole, natural welt, and tan sidewall.
Cost: $300 + shipping to LA (I paid around $17 via UPS from the east coast US)
Timeline: ~13 weeks door to door
The originally estimated turnaround time once in the workshop was estimated at 6-8 weeks, but it actually ended up being about 10 weeks. Here's the detailed timeline: - February 25th: I shipped the shoes out. - March 6th: Received an email from Goods and Services that they had my shoes. - May 6th: I emailed to inquire about the status. The customer service rep said my shoes were close to the front of the queue and offered to have me select my midsole, welt, and sidewall colors right then so they could be started on as soon as possible. - May 15th: I received an email that they would be starting on the shoes soon. - May 21st: Shoes shipped out. - May 28th: Package arrived at my door.
Why did I do this?: The lactae hevea soles were super squishy and comfy when I first got them, but as many have noted before me, wore out pretty quickly. Particularly in the ball of the foot, the sole was very thin and the footbed was even thinning out and cracking. My bursitis was flaring up very quickly when I'd wear the shoes, so I was tending to avoid putting them on. I originally got the shoes in Fall 2021, so I only wore them for about two years. I reached out to Rancourt and they said that they could not do a resole. Not eager to throw some nice leather shoes in the trash, I decided to give Goods and Services a whirl. I had seen some videos of their work on Youtube and thought the end results looked really cool. I know it's a little on the expensive side, but I'm happy with the product I received and excited to have a unique pair of shoes that represent a blend of craftsmanship from two small American businesses. And hopefully a future replacement of the Vibram mini ripple will be much cheaper than this resole was!
Quality: The work is solid, as the shoes have about doubled in weight from before I sent them out. One could nitpick small details of alignment and stitching if one wanted to, but at a glance I think they look great and really stylish!
A couple things that Goods and Services did that I appreciate: cleaned up the suede uppers a bit, and glued together the upper and liner around the heel where the stitching was coming apart. I asked about the latter in an email I sent before making my purchase and was quoted $100 or $40 for repairs depending on how in-depth and visible I wanted it to be. I was pleasantly surprised to find they noticed and glued it up for no extra charge.
Comfort: So far, I've only worn them around the house. The soles need to be broken in, but I'm already so much happier having more substance beneath my feet. I can feel what seems to be some cork filling, particularly in the worn down area under the ball of my foot - I'm assuming that'll distribute and settle in after several wears. The beauty of doing a resole is that the uppers still comfortably fit just like they used to beforehand.
Overall, I'm happy with my purchase and really looking forward to getting to wear these shoes for many more years. The turnaround time is unfortunately slow, but if you've got a pair of old sneakers collecting dust in your closet and are interested in this kind of modification, I recommend going for it!
submitted by greenman325 to goodyearwelt [link] [comments]

2024.06.04 00:11 Naismythology Top 250 Players (Careers + Peaks): #30-21 (OC)

Previous posts
Introduction/Methodology
236-250
221-235
206-220
191-205
176-190
164-175
155-163
140-154
131-139
121-130
111-120
110-101
100-91
90-81
80-71
70-61
60-51
50-41
40-31
Master List
All stats and info through the 2023 season.
If the formatting on this gets all janky, I apologize and I'll try to fix it later. I'm finishing up this section on a Mac and apparently it hates reddit's RTF editor. No idea why, I'm not very tech savvy. I research basketball from the 1950s, so that probably shouldn't be a surprise.
Anyway, here's the last bunch where there may be surprises in terms of who is in the group of ten. I'm guessing after this you can deduce who is in the top ten, and therefore 11-20.
submitted by Naismythology to nba [link] [comments]

2024.06.03 14:42 subthings2 Is the president of Argentina godfather to hundreds of werewolves?

In late 2014, a curious story made headlines around the world: then president of Argentina, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, adopted Yair Tawil as her godson - as many outlets reported, to stop him from turning into a werewolf.[1]
I like werewolves. This seems like a fun factoid to keep in my back pocket. Is it true?
Typical details looked about the same:
According to Argentinian folklore, the seventh straight son born to a family will transform into the feared "el lobison."
The werewolf shows its true nature on the first Friday after the boy's 13th birthday, legend says. The boy turns into a demon at midnight whenever there is a full moon, doomed to hunt and kill others before returning to human form.
Belief in the legend was so widespread in 19th century Argentina that families began abandoning - even murdering - their own baby boys.
That atrocity sparked the Presidential practice of adoption, which began in 1907, and was formally established in 1973 by Juan Domingo Peron, who extended the tradition to include baby girls.
Seventh sons or daughters now gain the President as their official godparent, a gold medal, and a full educational scholarship until the age of 21.
Yair Tawil, the seventh son of a Chabad Lubavitch family, is the first Jewish boy to be adopted, as the tradition only applied to Catholic children until 2009.
Firstly, the reason this was a news story in the first place - and not the almost 700 children that Fernandez had already adopted in her term - was that this was the first Jewish adoptee in majorly Catholic Argentina; the story was first circulated in English by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency on the 25th of December,[2] two days after Kirchner had posted about it on twitter,[3] several days after it had made the rounds on Hispanophone sites. Unlike the Spanish reports (and reporting on previous adoptions), the supposed werewolf connection was at the forefront of the presentation rather than being a quick aside about the tradition, which is the part that was focused on when this went viral.
This virality seems to have happened a few days later, getting articles in the likes of The Independent,[4] NPR,[5] and The Smithsonian;[6] The Guardian added fuel to the fire by posting a debunk article titled "No, Argentina's president did not adopt a Jewish child to stop him turning into a werewolf",[7] generating another cycle - of smug articles from outlets who hadn't reported on it like Business Insider,[8] and edits from those that had (such as NPR and The Smithsonian).
Fortunately for us, the debunk article is basically citing an "Argentine historian ", Daniel Balmaceda, who provides us with more details: namely that this custom is unrelated to the lobizón, the lobizón is not a werewolf, and that:
That custom began in 1907, when Enrique Brost and Apolonia Holmann, Volga German emigrés from south-eastern Russia asked then-president José Figueroa Alcorta to become godfather to their seventh son, said the historian.
The couple wanted to maintain a custom from Czarist Russia, where the Tsar was said to become godfather to seventh sons, and Argentina’s president accepted.
This wraps up the popular narrative of this story, repeated in articles and videos both English and Spanish; we'll be focusing on The Guardian's version, though this merely represents a version of the story that's entered the general Fun Facts archive of endlessly reposted trivia.
To complicate things, Jewish Telegraphic Agency responded by posting a debunk-debunk article[9] in response to The Guardian - citing their own historian, Horacio Vazquez Rial, and the "prologue to his unpublished book, “The Last Werewolf.”" Rial died over 2 years before the article was posted, and the book was never published - nor is there any trace of its existence - so it appears we might be getting this second-hand from Raanan Rein, "a professor of Latin American and Spanish history at Tel Aviv University", whose direct quotes in the article do nothing to debunk the lobizón connection. Yeah, let's move on.
A detail mentioned by The Guardian, among many others - including Spanish Wikipedia[10] - goes as such
The practice soon became tradition and was passed into law in 1974 by Isabel Perón, the widow of Argentina’s political strongman General Juan Perón, once she succeeded him in the presidential seat after his death in office. As Argentina’s first woman president, Mrs Perón extended the benefit to seventh daughters as well.
This is referring to Ley 20,843,[11] but If we read the text of that law we find that it just gives the president general powers to grant scholarships. The image of the Wikipedia page shows Decreto 848/73 - which funnily enough was directly linked by The Guardian - which is the actual 1973 decree[12] that extended this to seventh daughters. Which was still during Juan Perón's (not Argentina's first woman president) time. This decree is the one altered in 2009[13] so that "Those who do not profess Catholic worship" can also be counted, allowing our Jewish seventh son to make the headlines.
Well fine, that's a bit of nitpicking, but at least everyone agrees that it came from Enrique Brost and Apolonia Holmann in 1907, continuing Russian tradition, right? An article by Soledad Gil[14] covers several disputes that their child was the start of this tradition, but while we can know that the newborn José Brost had then-president Figueroa Alcorta as godfather, a potential lobizón connection either has no paper trail, is locked in archives, or doesn't exist. At the very least, the connection was kicking around before Perón enacted his 1973 decree.[15]
However, a connection is made - sometimes confidently, sometimes delivered with a shrugged "supposedly" - that this is a Russian custom that the Tsar granted; some even namedrop Catherine the Great.
The problem is that there is zero record of this supposed custom that I can find. There's a chance this is a misinterpretation of "patronage": the presidential padrinazgo can be translated as "patronage" (even if it's used specifically as being a godparent), and Tsars were associated with patronage - of things like the arts. There's another chance that it is a tradition this pair of Volga Germans brought over - but a German tradition; like Argentina, the German president also becomes the godfather to seventh children (even if the parents are neo-nazis[16]), although the earliest record I can find of this is 1916.[17]
There's a curious detail, that's exemplified by Clarin's article[18] on los ahijados:
Today it is a custom that only applies in our country. It is 100% Argentine heritage; a Russian myth that is not even "respected" in that country, only here.
[Translated using Google translate]
Because, as literally every article on the subject omits, Germany does it. So does the Belgium monarchy. Spain had the Hidalgo de bragueta, offering a form of nobilty rather than a godparent.[19] Two neighbours of Argentina also do it: Paraguay has the godfather system, and Chile has a scholarship for seventh children (you can apply for that here[20]), though both formalised it after Argentina.
Note, however, that connecting godchildren to werewolves (or werewolf adjacent conditions) is an Iberian custom;[21] that is to say, the Volga German couple would have been unlikely to connect this to Russian or German werewolf beliefs, whereas the heavy Iberian influence on South American culture would have likely "filled in the gaps" on relatable custom. As an example, we can see the beginnings of this process from a case in 1790s Brazil: with a man smearing another as being a lobizome (werewolf) in name - but in practice, connecting it to native lore of someone whose head turns into a ball of fire, this over time becoming the modern lobisomem in parts of the Amazon that directly combines this native belief with Iberian beliefs about seventh born sons and godfathers.[22]
Russian volkolak beliefs instead involve motifs typical to Eastern European lycanthropes, like knives in stumps, sorcerers, and weddings.[23] The general magical abilities of seventh sons are found throughout Europe - but this specific connection to werewolves isn't. In short, the claim repeated in The Guardian and elsewhere that godparents of seventh sons is an import of Czarist Russia is weak, and the creative additions by outlets like Clarín adding werewolves to this importation are baseless.
This gives us an awkward conclusion - okay, sure, it's probably Iberian in origin and not Russian, but we've got two separate things here: the head of state becoming godfather to seventh sons, and getting a godfather of a seventh son for werewolf reasons, don't seem to actually overlap in Europe, and unless someone is willing to dig up Argentinian archives from 1907 to see if the lobizón was mentioned at all, we're left with the - somewhat ridiculous, on the face of it - proposition that it's unlikely these two were merged at the time this tradition was started. Gil's article lends credence to the idea that this was slowly built up rather than being singularly started in 1907, and either way the request of a Volga German couple would be unlikely to add werewolves into the mix; instead, much like the Brazilian fire-headed lobisomem, when the tradition was well-seated in Argentina it would've then had the opportunity to meld with imported Iberian folklore to create the narrative we have now.
And well, yes, the lobizón is a lobizón, not a werewolf, since lobizón (and lobisomem) don't turn into wolves, with the Iberian werewolf-like beliefs being distinctly separate but related to their lycanthropic brethren in the rest of Europe.
Which gives us a funny conclusion: yes, the Argentinian president has hundreds of lycanthropic godchildren, just not for any of the reasons anyone gives, it likely didn't start off like that, it's not werewolves, and it isn't even the official reason. Folklore doesn't care about all that.
References
[1] https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/189189
[2] https://www.jta.org/2014/12/25/global/argentinas-president-adopts-jewish-godson
[3] https://x.com/CFKArgentina/status/547530720626110464
[4] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/president-of-argentina-adopts-jewish-godson-to-stop-him-turning-into-a-werewolf-9946414.html
[5] https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/12/29/373834462/argentine-president-takes-on-godson-to-keep-werewolf-legend-at-bay
[6] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/argentina-has-superstition-7th-sons-will-turn-werewolves-180953746/
[7] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/29/argentina-kirchner-adopt-child-werewolf
[8] https://www.businessinsider.com/argentina-president-adopts-boy-no-werewolf-2014-12
[9] https://www.jta.org/2015/01/05/culture/did-jta-botch-the-argentine-werewolf-story
[10] https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ley_de_padrinazgo_presidencial
[11] https://www.argentina.gob.anormativa/nacional/ley-20843-158477/texto
[12] https://www.argentina.gob.anormativa/nacional/decreto-848-1973-158462/texto
[13] https://www.argentina.gob.anormativa/nacional/decreto-1416-2009-158458/texto
[14] https://www.lanacion.com.arevista-lugares/hidalguia-de-bragueta-o-por-que-el-septimo-hijo-varon-es-ahijado-del-presidente-de-la-nacion-nid06012023/
[15] Mayo: revista del Museo de la Casa de Gobierno, Issues 6–7, pg 55-7
[16] https://www.dw.com/en/unlucky-number-seven-causes-headache-for-german-president/a-6290725
[17] Hollingworth, L. S. (1916). Social Devices for Impelling Women to Bear and Rear Children. American Journal of Sociology, 22(1), 19–29. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2763926
[18] https://www.clarin.com/politica/11-mil-ahijados-presidenciales-argentina-historia-maldicion-lobizones-convirtio-ley-unica-mundo_0_ARbSK6Q8xI.html
[19] Cadenas Y Vicent, V.: Heráldica, genealogía y nobleza en los editoriales de” Hidalguía,” 1953-1993: 40 años de un pensamiento
[20] https://apadrinamiento.interior.gob.cl/
[21] Francisco Vaz da Silva (2003) Iberian seventh-born children, werewolves, and the dragon slayer: A case study in the comparative interpretation of symbolic praxis and fairytales, Folklore, 114:3 335-353, DOI: 10.1080/0015587032000145379
[22] Harris, Mark (2013). "The Werewolf in between Indians and Whites: Imaginative Frontiers and Mobile Identities in Eighteenth Century Amazonia," Tipití: Journal of the Society for the Anthropology of Lowland South America: Vol. 11: Iss. 1, Article 6, 87-104
[23] Marina Valentsova, Legends and Beliefs About Werewolves Among the Eastern Slavs: Areal Characteristics of Motifs. In: Werewolf Legends. eds. Willem de Blécourt/Mirjam Mencej (pg 148-152)
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2024.06.02 15:37 Avatar-of-Chaos The Tower on the Borderland — Day One in the Month of the Towering Mist

The Tower on the Borderland — Day One in the Month of the Towering Mist

Introduction

The Tower on the Borderland is an Action-Horror game developed and published by DascuMaru. It was on the 20th of May, 2024. As of the 25th of May, 2024, updated.

Presentation

The Tower on the Borderland is gritty with PSX graphics and ambience, shrouding in a wispy mist; it is primarily quiet with some creatures making a racket—there's one song playing from the checkpoint radio called Danse Macabre (1874) by Camille Saint-Saëns.
https://preview.redd.it/5k3p9b14r54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8975d6dbaa27ab89c71ee0ccf0622a1f8839b35c
The story follows Erin, a member of a Spec Op team, on their way to an enormous labyrinth—towering towards the sky. Erin doesn't know the details of her mission, but she is honoured to be a part of CHOSO and asked to stay behind to set up a relay at the entrance—she countered, saying it's better on higher elevation, but they're gone. She chased after her commando—encountering dead soldiers and monsters along the way. Locates her unit—wearing bizarre masks amidst a ceremony, interrupting them. Erin shot off the cliff. The plot assumes afterwards, as Erin ascends and descends the Tower, uncovering the mystery and escape.
The gameplay is a mix of exploration and combat.
https://preview.redd.it/82gzot5or54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d22225eef807565f417fc84c2c4b6cafe3c7f8a
Metroidvania's approach to exploration is handled adequately on each floor; the map updates with the layout and points of interest. These attractive areas are mostly elevators to transport from one floor to another; the others are checkpoints to recover Health and Medkits and Ammunition. And upgrades from fallen soldiers. While I don't use the radio often cause I love to wander off, it picks up on frequencies from points of interest. The map controls take getting used to; it orbits along the horizontal axis and pans with the vertical axis.
Erin starts with a combat knife and handgun, slowly gaining a rifle and grenades. Combat is a light Soulslike without managing EXP: it's all skill. Locking on enemies to directly attack them; strangely, you can't switch targets. The combat knife performs a 1–2 combo; the first is a lunge—sometimes it'll double-hit—which is fine by me; some enemies take a lot of punishment. Firearms and grenades have a chance of stunning enemies. The game doesn't tell how many grenades Erin has without throwing them. And you can dodge forever; there's no stamina meter. It doesn't make it less challenging. However, Erin doesn't need to fight every enemy, only those that deactivate elevators and guard the upgrades.
https://preview.redd.it/wr74zce6s54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e20b6022bf087ed0f8f1222276a5a85d97333012
Enemies diverge into two types, humanoids and bugs, each having different attacking phases and audio cues. As the game progresses, new types emerge; these enemies will transition to a Bug-Humanoid Hybrid after taking enough damage.
The Tower on the Borderland's Cosmic Horror combines inspirations and themes.
The House on the Borderland (1908) by William Hope Hodgson is the primary inspiration for The Tower on the Borderland, which follows a recount of a manuscript found in a ruined property—written by its owner. The owner experienced hallucinatory phenomena of the House's past and future—sights of the watchful God-Beasts above an arena and celestial bodies of dead stars; time seemed to accelerate and slow, respectively. The Tower is like the House, stands the test of time as a phantom. While The Tower is Borderland-bound, it's a labyrinth of character.
https://preview.redd.it/h52dwa91s54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54240d9c309514d2e9a365da6a4fca39ae079da0
The Tower has its fancy in the form of a Piranesi)esque tale told by the Spirit Grub-loving Fleming—for every five tells a piece. Fleming's story tells of the Tower's past from the perspective of a Wanderer, whose pilgrimage to the Tower—ambling the halls adorned with statues of anthropomorphic beasts—feeling the malign forces of the Tower, to the only place of calm, looms an idol of an Owl. The tale then foretold the future. A Necromancer and his Masked Soldiers perform a ritual to awaken a God-Beast, Xiga Lavos. And Erin, who will stop them? The Wanderer warns about Erin's challenges—and the eternity she needs to roam the Tower. The saga is the game's greatest strength in facilitating Cosmic Horror with incredible writing and descriptions of the Tower's absurd geometry. And yet, there's more to Fleming's tale.
https://preview.redd.it/31bm88l1t54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91c44951f3cd409eb3175697d72fa25aeb2f066d
Interestingly, Erin does see an apparition of an Owl at checkpoints—getting close to it. The Owl flies away into the mist.
The Tower's geometry is an illogical design influenced by the Tower of Babel. The Hebrew meaning is to confuse, synergising with the purpose of a labyrinth. The Tower appears to act as a Lighthouse, drawing attention to its domain.
The soldiers refer to the CHOSO soldiers that Erin came with. However, they came for something else, Eternal Life—by partnering up with Father Bryan. Father Bryan offers them animal masks, granting capabilities beyond humans—as the game's two-phase bosses when defeated in the first phase, Father Bryan grants them Dark Revival, a transformation of their Mask—something like the masks from Majora's Masks. The difficulty is mixed: I found Fenton and O'Reilly challenging, while the others relatively easy. The rifle tears these bosses up like tissue paper.
https://preview.redd.it/nsepo078v54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=34b56bb45c63d0cbf3c8049bf4946e0c4f6334b7
Father Bryan is the wheelchaired man seen during the prologue. There isn't much about him besides being a Nodens and the Usurper. Bryan quotes the Sea [Lake] of Hali within its deepest abyss. The Conqueror Worm. While talking with O'Reilly. The Conqueror Worm implies that humanity's folly meets in hideous death by dark forces beyond understanding—repeated, though more directly to Erin from Father Bryan. The Sea of Hali is aesthetic, a sea made of mist. The Tower on the Borderland's Nodens are the giant bugs guarding the inner sanctum. They are nightmare parasites that eat dreams, according to McKray.
https://preview.redd.it/98f3bz39t54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=173525050b680a3fa2de44e28f69fb4a81593184
The first phase of Father Bryan has Erin use firearms to do damage. Melee is possible when he leans over his desk, but I advise against it. Father Bryan has powerful swipes. The second phase is more challenging. Father Bryan switches to AOEs used by the bug enemies. However, Erin finally meets the dead Wanderer before the final confrontation. He offers his Halberd of the Light (I'm unsure if it is predetermined or otherwise). The Halberd of the Light is the game's most powerful weapon—according to the Wanderer, "with each swing of the sacred weapon, the Warrior cleaved the fabric of the mundane, drawing forth energies empowering the eternal soul", cryptically it heals on strike.
https://preview.redd.it/gg0t85tdv54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e8192604159c3eaa2adba269e4cbe904c58d3f88
The world-building goes beyond the Tower. CHOSO is an abbreviation for Counter Horror & Occult Special Ops: does that mean there are other instances like the Tower? What is the Winter Palace the Wanderer mentions? Or the Dark Flame Father Bryan mentioned? But!—more importantly, Erin escaped her Babylonian nightmare, but her quest is far from over.

Collapsing Cosmoses

The Tower on the Borderland is a delight, full of character and atmosphere. Within the brume hides an intricate Cosmic Horror—a hallucinatory world with malign forces and a serene breeze blowing on the winds.
https://preview.redd.it/cg2nnh62w54d1.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d1bb5004c09f48a11db02cbe37586b185c4c24a
The Tower on the Borderland gets a strong recommendation.
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2024.06.02 00:50 StellaTerra At the end of my wits with the Classic Plus (broken spokes, endless repair, no replacement parts)

Hi, I'm really struggling with the rear wheel on my Priority Classic Plus, and I'm hoping to get some guidance/advice. I got it ~7 months ago and it started popping spokes within 2 months. I lost three in the first batch, had multiple flats, and then it started losing 1-2 per week after that, always at the head, for a total of ~20 up to now. I've been replacing them with ones I bought on Amazon since, but it's not stopping the procession of brakes and flats. I contact Priority, they told me their bikes can only handle 175 lbs and only on roads without potholes, but they suggested I just have a whole new wheel built by a professional.
I went to my local shop, they quoted $400 (for one wheel on a bike that only cost $450 in the first place!) but this is how I get to work so 🤷‍♀️ I said yeah. On Saturday, May 18th, they said they'd have the wheel ready to install by Wednesday, May 22nd, then radio silence, I reached out on the 25th, they said they needed to order parts, I answered some questions, then radio silence, so I reached out this morning and they're like... we can't seem to find the hub for this wheel. They asked me tons of questions I have no ability to answer, other than by sending them the website for the Classic Plus, and then they offered me a refund.
I'm now searching on Google and I can't seem to find any Shimano Nexus 3 speed hubs for rim brakes. I really *really* have no idea about bikes, I just wanted a low maintenance bike to get to work, and this has been a time and money pit, and I'm in tears with frustration.
How do I make this bike work without having to get a degree in bike mechanics? Is it possible to buy a replacement hub? Should I take the refund to try to find another, more responsive shop? Can this be done without taking the bike out of commission during repairs, so I can still get to work? Is there a place with more detailed specifications about the Classic Plus? (I bought the wrong size spokes, I think, and don't know what's right.) Is there a good quality brand of spokes I should be buying, rather than the Amazon special? I bought a truing stand and tension meter, and have spent ~20 hours trying to get this right, but I think I'm just inept, should I just keep trying to make this work? How do you find a trust-worthy, responsive bike shop that won't ghost you for a week at a time? Is this bike just wrong for daily commuting on rough streets? Should I just replace the whole bike? How do you find a bike that lasts for more than a year?
submitted by StellaTerra to PriorityBicycles [link] [comments]

2024.05.31 13:01 KPOP_MOD Megathread 9: HYBE vs. ADOR - Shareholders' Meeting recap, Min Hee Jin Press Conference pt.2, and More

This megathread is about the ongoing conflict between HYBE and the management of sub-label ADOR.
DO NOT make new posts related to this story to the subreddit. If you have new information/articles, add them to the comments below so they can be integrated into the main post.
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DISCLAIMER ABOUT SOURCES: We prefer to focus on official statements from companies or other vetted sources. There will be widespread speculation and rumor-heavy articles, but until presented in an official capacity we consider them unsubstantiated. As Mods, all we can do is compile and summarize, but we are not investigators or journalists.

Summary of Previous Megathreads

MEGATHREADS ONE and TWO and THREE covered events from April 22nd to the 26th
  • Contains: Announcement of HYBE auditing sub-label ADOR, evidence of ADOR management planning to break away, HYBE filing a 'breach of trust' complaint to police, ADOR CEO Min Hee Jin's emergency press conference to explain her frustrations within the company, and HYBE's refutation of her claims.
MEGATHREAD FOUR provided a SUMMARY of all events up to April 30th.
  • Contains: Basic info and summary of dispute, other HYBE sub-labels BIGHIT Music and SOURCE Music's vow to take legal action against slander and groundless conspiracies, and future board/shareholders' meetings were scheduled.
MEGATHREADS FIVE and SIX covered the first half of May up to the 18th.
  • Contains: Potential embezzlement by an ADOR employee, Min Hee Jin's injunction filed against HYBE, a letter from the parents of NewJeans, HYBE's rebuttal to it, HYBE's request to investigate the timing of ADOR's VP selling his shares, the injunction hearing, old emails between Min Hee Jin and HYBE, and alleged chat messages from MHJ to NewJeans.
MEGATHREAD SEVEN covered May 19th to the 25th.
  • Contains: MHJ and HYBE statements with claims and counter-claims post-hearing, Belift Lab's criminal complaint filing against MHJ for defamation, HYBE's internal town hall, and HYBE going in for police questioning to support their 'breach of trust' case against MHJ.
MEGATHREAD EIGHT covered the last week of May.
  • More old text messages became public which featured various conversations including MHJ, VP Lee, ADOR staff, among others, and particularly MHJ and her shaman friend. The topics covered are the same HYBE had cited previously as having been discovered during the audit.
  • MHJ's preliminary injunction was granted by the court on May 30th, protecting her from immediate dismissal at the upcoming shareholders' meeting. The court's judgment was based on a clause in MHJ's contract despite the court acknowledging she had acted treacherously towards HYBE. Both MHJ and HYBE representatives made statements accepting the court's decision. HYBE vowed to pursue the next steps within the limits of the law.
  • The shareholders' meeting was held on May 31st.

Articles / Timeline

240531
Injunction Court Documents:
  • The documentation for the Injunction Ruling was made available on TheQoo. We welcome any direct translations of these pages (without commentary/opinion).
  • TwitteX @juantokki's English translation
  • We're working on double-checking that we have the complete document pages, as noted in this comment.
  • Be aware! There is a widely distributed article, which quotes sections of the ruling and adds opinion/interpretation commentary. We have substantive reason to believe the author is heavily biased towards one side, which makes it unreliable for understanding the plain text of the ruling.
240605
Ongoing Legal Complaints/Investigations:
  • HYBE's report to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) regarding potential insider trading by ADOR management (Korea JoongAng)
  • HYBE's complaint against Min Hee Jin for 'breach of trust' (Yonhap)
  • Belift Lab's complaint against Min Hee Jin for defamation (Soompi)
  • Other Legal Action statements: SOURCE MUSIC on behalf of LE SSERAFIM, BIGHIT MUSIC on behalf of BTS, and ADOR on behalf of NewJeans.
Link back to MEGATHREADS 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8

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2024.05.30 03:04 Opposite_Mirror1744 Mwhahahahahahh

Mwhahahahahahh submitted by Opposite_Mirror1744 to Worldbox [link] [comments]

2024.05.29 19:16 Guilty-Platypus-7186 Master's Thesis Anxiety

Hello Reddit ! I don't really know if my post belongs here, it's my first time ever posting here. I hope I can get a few responses, I think I am mainly seeking support here, a bit like a virtual hug if you like 🥹
I (25F) am currently writing my master's thesis in educational science (to make it simple). It needs to be minimum 90 written pages, separated into 3 big parts and then cut into smaller chapters. I am writing about the project I put into practice a year ago when I was working in New Zealand as a teacher of French as a Foreign Language. I was officially diagnosed with ASD in July 2023 and I started taking medication for ADHD in March 2024 (Ritalin/30mg).
I was supposed to finish my studies last year, but because I was not able to work on it and teach at the same time, I had to double my final year and come back home where I currently live with my mother. I'm only doubling the thesis and not any other subjects, so I write full-time. I have received minimal support from my tutors : granted, I didn't reach out often because I felt shame for not being able to get some writing done, but they also almost never answer any emails. One of them is not available to tutor anymore, the other one is so busy that she replies to emails a month after I send them, and she has not come back to me about corrections for the parts I've already written. Yes Reddit ! I've already written some stuff : it took 4.5 months for me to write the first part (22 pages, I was not-yet on medication at that time) and roughly one month to write the third part (33 pages, on medication).
The last part is the most difficult, because it's all research, quoting people and making sure that I write in the appropriate 'style' for a thesis (no freaking idea what this means, wasn't given many directions about the writing style, but I guess it means I have to write quite elegantly and explain things well...). Academic writing is very difficult for me, I am mostly just okay at narrative writing.
I was diagnosed for both conditions in my early 20s and my mother could have not believed me or taken it lightly. Nope, she took it like a champ (she had her suspicions) and as been my rock and #1 support ever since. She's trying so much to understand Reddit, and I'm trying to express myself better but it's so hard to explain to people who don't have ADHD how I work and to people who don't have ASD how I feel. Nobody else I know have those and even though my mother tries her best to help, other family members (whilst still trying their best to help as well) are not so understanding. My grandma still does not understand that 'not thinking about it' is not how one solves ADHD T.T
So here's my problem : my original goal was to finish my second part by 31rst of May, send it to my tutor and then make all the corrections in a few days to finish and send my thesis in the first week of June (the thesis then needs two weeks to be processed by my tutors and then they'll give me a date for me to defend it). The thing is, my family goes away to an amusement park on 25th of June and I see my friends I have not seen in about a year, from 6th to 14th of July, and I really wanted to be able to go with my family (my mother was so disappointed when I told her I might not be able to make it as she already paid and then I would really love to enjoy my time with my friends (I love them to the moon and back but having them home for a week and a half is still going to be tiring for me).
I was originally in the goal, wrote my whole third part in April, but then things started to get more difficult : I had to make a lot of corrections for part 3 and those took until 13th of May which basically took almost two weeks off my planned writing time for second part. Then I had to apply for a job, which took until 20th of May so only roughly 10 days left for writing the rest of my thesis. And then, my good old lack of confidence, disappointment in myself and self-doubt came knocking to the door. I have 7 pages written out of 30, so it's absolutely impossible to make it in time. My teacher is still not responding so I have no idea how long the corrections are going to take (having to modify 100 things is not the same as having to modify 500 things).
What keeps me from writing is the stress. I am so stressed that my menstrual cycle has stopped, I am dreaming of my thesis and the tiredness helps me from focusing properly during the day. When I can unwind I feel extremely guilty because I procrastinate, but it's also the only moments my head feels clear and I'm not thinking about the thesis. I doubt I can make it Reddit, I feel so disappointed in myself, and I don't know how to make it better. I'm scared and I can't talk to my mother because she already worries far too much about me and the last thing I want is for her to be stressed as well. To top it all, I have been having almost daily autistic shutdowns this past week that gradually make me even more exhausted.
I am so, so sorry about the rant Reddit, I just didn't know how to react or how to calm the stress. I don't know what to begin with, I have not even finished the first 10 pages of part 2 that I am already worrying for pages 11-20 and 20-30 ! I currently have more than 25 tabs open and I don't even know which ones I have to close (because you know : what if I need it later ? What if I haven't saved it on Zotero, I don't remember, and then when I go check, the sheer amount of articles makes me even more stressed).
Any people here to give me a few words of encouragement ? 🥹💛
submitted by Guilty-Platypus-7186 to adhdwomen [link] [comments]

2024.05.29 11:39 Chas-- Nikken's End 1A: The Survivor Gita [Part I: The Roles]

"What distinguished the Indian system from that of the ancient Western world is the absence of slavery. The caste system made formal slavery unnecessary in ancient India." - from The Two Classes of the Four-Fold Caste System, by Sudheer Birodkar.
In Nikken's Threefold World, which is "the world of unenlightened beings who transmigrate within the Six Paths" [Hell, Hunger, Animality, Anger, Humanity and Heaven] ... the 1st chapter describes the structure of Nikken's World of Heaven.

Table of Contents

Part I: The Roles
  1. The Hindu Caste System and Brahminism
  2. The Nichiren Shoshu priesthood and Nikken Abe
Part II: The Actors
  1. The First Rank of Nichiren Shoshu (Brahmin Caste - Priests and Teachers)
  2. The Second Rank of Nichiren Shoshu (Kshatriya Caste - Warriors and Proxy Rulers)
  3. The Third Rank of Nichiren Shoshu (Vaishya Caste - Farmers, Merchants, Artisans, etc.)
  4. The Fourth Rank of Nichiren Shoshu (Shudra Caste - Laborers)
  5. The Fifth Rank of Nichiren Shoshu (Untouchable Caste or Eta - Polluted Laborers)
  6. Definition of Heaven (Ten)
  7. Getting Some Help
  8. The Survivor Gita
As Nikken Abe's successor Nichinyo moves ever closer to the moment that he will no longer be the high priest of Nichiren Shoshu ... those interested in the future occupants of Taisekiji will have in mind a question ... how will events unfold ?
What I will attempt to do in this polemical series laced with satire, is to give a view from which the seeming random or enigmatic quality of the various moves made by the priesthood, can be revealed to be more predictable and easy to understand.
In the analytic method that I have chosen, the grid for analysis, is the Hindu caste system.
The theme that will be employed to portray the flow of events to come is the "Survivor" series from CBS.
Think of it as the "Survivor Gita".

1. The Hindu Caste System and Brahminism

First, let's get a cursory understanding of what the phenomenon of "Brahminism" is all about.
From "The Caste System and the Stages of Life in Hinduism", by Kelley L. Ross, Ph.D, (abridged):
The Bhagavad Gita says this about the varnas (color):
Brahmins (white) - Priests and Teachers: The works of a Brahmin are peace; self-harmony, austerity, and purity; loving- forgiveness and righteousness; vision and wisdom and faith.
Kshatriyas (red) - Warriors and Rulers: The works of a Kshatriya are: a heroic mind, inner fire, constancy, resourcefulness, courage in battle, generosity and noble leadership.
Vaishyas (Brown) - Farmers, Merchants, Artisans, etc.: The works of a Vaishya are trade, agriculture and the rearing of cattle.
Shudras (Black) - Laborers: The works of the Shudra are service.
Untouchables (Outcastes - no color) - Polluted Laborers.
[chapter 18, Juan Mascaró translation, Penguin Books, 1962]
Associated with each varna there is a traditional color. These sound suspiciously like skin colors; and, indeed, there is an expectation in India that higher caste people will have lighter skin -- although there are plenty of exceptions (especially in the South of India).
So, there are these visibly separable classes of people, which perform specific functions, and which form the basic hierarchical structure of ALL theocracies, explicit and implicit.
An explicit Brahminist theocracy would be the Vatican, where the Pope and Cardinals = Brahmins, the Bishops = Kshatriyas, the Priests tending the flocks = Vaishyas, the Monks, Nuns and the Laity = Shudras, and finally the poor = Untouchables, except for once a year when the Pope washes a foot or two.
An implicit Brahminist theocracy would be the a 10-year-old high tech firm, where the Founder and the Board = Brahmins, the corporate officers and top managers = Kshatriyas, the middle management and technical leads = Vaishyas, the line managers and churn and burn salaried workers = Shudras, and finally the hourly, temp and out-sourced workers = Untouchables.
You get the picture. The need, which is held by all humanity, to improve their own and their family's condition ... is used to betray and undermine their own humanity and render the effect of slavery within a system that appears personally voluntary, however socially coercive it may be in reality.
Ross goes on ...
The twice born [Brahmins, Kshatriyas, Vaishyas] account for about 48% of Hindus. The rest are Shudras and Untouchables. The Shudras may represent the institutional provision that the Arya made for the people they already found in India. The Shudras thus remain once born, and traditionally are not allowed to learn Sanskrit or study the Vedas. Their dharma is to work for the twice born. But even below the Shudras are the Untouchables, who are literally "outcastes," without a varna [color], and were regarded as "untouchable" because they are ritually polluting for caste Hindus. Some Untouchable subcastes are regarded as so polluted that members are supposed to keep out of sight and do their work at night: They are called "Unseeables." In India, the term "Untouchable" is now regarded as impolite or politically incorrect (like Eta in Japan for the traditional tanners and pariahs).
These kinds of divisions of people only become more bitter, over time, as more and more distinctions need to be drawn to demonstrate clearly that one is not a part of a lower group. (Like the insanity of "Colored" water fountains in the South, when I was a child.)
Following the ritual tenets of animality and thereby preserving the pecking order become the overriding preoccupation of anyone desiring a better life. These demonic activities will ultimately attempt to occupy 100% of all human effort, since this particular evil is determined to undermine humanity's true mission of Kosen Rufu.
Ross finishes with ...
The Untouchables, nevertheless, have their own traditional professions and their own subcastes. Those professions (unless they can be evaded in the greater social mobility of modern, urban, anonymous life) involve too much pollution to be performed by caste Hindus: (1) dealing with the bodies of dead animals (like the sacred cattle that wander Indian villages) or unclaimed dead humans, (2) tanning leather, from such dead animals, and manufacturing leather goods, and (3) cleaning up the human and animal waste for which in traditional villages there is no sewer system. Mahâtmâ Gandhi referred to the latter euphemistically as "scavenging" but saw in it the most horrible thing imposed on the Untouchables by the caste system. His requirement on his farms in South Africa that everyone share in such tasks comes up in an early scene in the movie Gandhi. Since Gandhi equated suffering with holiness, he saw the Untouchables as hallowed by their miserable treatment and so called them "Harijans" (Hari=Vishnu). Later Gandhi went on fasts in the hope of improving the condition of the Untouchables, or at least to avoid their being politically classified as non-Hindus. Today the status of the Shudras, Untouchables, and other "scheduled castes," and the preferential policies that the Indian government has designed for their advancement ever since Independence, are sources of serious conflict, including murders and riots, in Indian society.
If you had a difficulty in understanding precisely what tied together the "Gandhi, King and Ikeda" exhibits around the country ... perhaps the point will become abundantly clear after reading this article, since all three of these men fought to end the exploitation and oppression of a large number of hard-working common people, who supported a parasitic caste system.
Gandhi, King and Ikeda are the three Anti-Brahminist heroes of the Common People, for the modern era.
Some argue that the SGI has Brahminist tendencies, and like all human organizations, that is surely exists ... but it is also true that those tendencies are sporadic, impermanent and rapidly shifting as the SGI undergoes it's own human revolution with the broadening of the Soka Gakkai activities to include all places where Dai-Rokuten-No-Mao (the Devil King of the 6th Heaven, or arrogant authority) might appear in the leadership of any organization, or group.
But let's go a little further in understanding the phenomenon of Brahminism. And then we will talk about the Nichiren Shoshu priesthood, Nikken and his successors.
From "The Two Classes of the Four-Fold Caste System", by Sudheer Birodkar:
The Brahmin-Kshatriya combine was thus the appropriating section as against the Vaishya-Shudra combine who represented the productive section. But although the two appropriating and the two appropriated sections of society performed different functions like the ritual worship undertaken by the Brahmins, warfare by Kshatriyas, cultivation by the Vaishyas and menial work by the Shudras they were essentially two broad economic categories with antagonistic interests of sharing the social surplus product which only the Vaishyas and Shudra created.
Dai-Rokuten-No-Mao is defined as the function of rapturous exploitation of the efforts of others, while grinding those others underfoot.
There is always a gloating rapture present. (Remember the gleeful pictures of those happy Southern men standing around a burning black corpse in the lynchings of last century? Remember how much they are enjoying themselves proudly in the Abu Ghraib pictures? It is the same function, the same demon.)
And there is always a hierarchy being enforced, which is a denial of the Lotus Sutra's universal equality.
Birodkar goes on ...
... Dana along with dakshina (a voluntary payment made to Brahmins for religious services which they rendered), has been represented as an offering to the clergy at our innumerable religious rites. Thus the spiritual clasp of the clergy on the general population came to play a vital role in appropriating the surplus in favour of the clergy, rendering coercion unnecessary and in perpetuating social practices which had lost relevance with day-to-day life.
The reference to day-to-day life and social relevance is indicating that those activities which were initially tribal social functions involving redistribution of food in an agrarian tribal culture, were no longer serving the function of allowing farmers to survive a bad year, or a flood in one part of the locality not affecting another part.
Birodkar goes on ...
The clergy firmly rooted in the minds of the masses, ideas about Karma - faithfully carrying out of duties assigned to each person on virtue of being born in any particular caste. Ideas about rebirth fostered a belief that sufferings of this life were a result of deeds of one's past lives and the faithful execution of duties that fell upon one in one's present life would hold a promise of rebirth in a higher caste. With their minds enmeshed in such dogmas, the masses mutely accepted a secondary status in the social hierarchy for centuries together.
The idea of waiting until the next time around, instead of enjoying this one and only precious instance of YOU, which will not recur in anyone's religious tradition ... this is the worst slander of humanity: wasting one's life, voluntarily, for the foul rapture of another.

2. The Nichiren Shoshu Priesthood, Nikken Abe and His Successors

There are many complaints about the behavior and activities of the Nichiren Shoshu priesthood, related to their pursuits of having a good time with bad women and expensive food, drink and parties with the member's money. It is not my intention to defend those activities, but my view of those activities is frankly, sociological. Impossibly bad and flagrantly unacceptable social behavior is to be expected when great evil is enthroned.
So, I do not expect Nichiren Shoshu priests, especially the priesthood elite, to behave well. This is secondary. It is an effect or symptom, or think of it as the warning label on a pack of smokes, or the nuclear symbol on a container of Plutonium. (It lets you know that you should keep your distance, for safety.)
Indeed, in all cases when the correct practice of Nichiren's Buddhism is considered, secular issues fade into insignificance.
From Nichiren Daishonin's Gosho "On Prayer", WND p. 345:
It makes no difference if the practitioner himself is lacking in worth, defective in wisdom, impure in his person, and lacking in virtue derived from observing the precepts. So long as he chants Nam-myoho-renge-kyo, they [the protective functions] will invariably protect him. One does not throw away gold because the bag that holds it is dirty; one does not ignore the sandalwood trees because of the foul odor of the eranda trees around them; and one does not refuse to gather lotuses because the pond in the valley where they grow is not clean. If they ignore the practitioner of the Lotus Sutra, they will be going against their vow.
The issue is the correct practice. THAT is my complaint against Nikken and his Nichiren Shoshu successors like Nichinyo.
From "Moral Philosophy and Dealings With Priests", written by myself (sorry about the self-quote):
  1. Nichiren Shoshu and the Hokkeko have always called themselves followers of Nikko's Fuji School, but from the beginning (1912) they have followed priests that disobey the 25th Admonition against sexual abstinence, and they have followed priests that were trained by Nichiren Shu (5 Senior Priests) at Rissho University - disobeying the 2nd Admonition, and hence according to Nikko they are not his followers, but are instead followers of the Five Senior Priests. (Nikko would have kicked them out of the Fuji School just for training at Rissho.)
From the end of Nikko Shonin's 26 Admonitions:
"I have set forth these 26 articles for the sake of the eternal salvation and protection of humankind. Those who violate even one of these articles cannot be called disciples of Nikko."
In 1969, Daisaku Ikeda founded Soka University to train the future leaders of the Soka Gakkai, among others. This was a necessary move, because of the corruption seen in attitudes of Japanese Academics, and their determined resistance to recognizing the Soka Gakkai as a valid religious organization and worthy of respect. Witness the academic quotes in the LOOK Magazine article (1963) by the President of Rissho University, Rev. Shobun Kubota, D.T. Suzuki of Zen, and other academics, that the Soka Gakkai "can not be Buddhism".
' The Rev. Dr. Shobun Kubota, vice-president of Rissho University of Tokyo, concurs. "The principle of Buddhism," he says, "is to restrain man's desires, such as sex, hunger, wealth and fame, but Soka Gakkai promises the possession of these desires. It uses man's weaknesses as a tool for its own expansion. It has the same characteristics as Nazism. Finally, it is a corruption of Buddhism."' - LOOK Magazine, September 10, 1963
This from academic Buddhists who signed up unanimously, institution by institution, to bear the Shinto Talisman, and promote Imperial Way Buddhism and Imperial State Zen militarism for the God-Emperor. In support of that self-same Nazi Reich, while Makiguchi and Toda alone bore the brunt of oppression to the end. Such evil-doers call themselves Buddhists. Their tongues should rot in their mouths.
Soka University has created at least one academic environment where the Soka Gakkai can be viewed with objectivity by students. This was and remains an absolute good.
Nichiren Shoshu continued to allow the training of their future leaders by the Nichiren Shu Minobu Sect at Rissho University, even though they were aware that this was a slander of Nikko's school, and made them not followers of Nikko.
Excerpts from http://www.geocities.com/smimoza/vol275.html, the "Fake [High Priest]" Newsletter: "My view of the teachings of Nichiren Shoshu has been polluted with Minobu's wicked teachings," Nikken confessed at the opening ceremony for the Fuji Gakurin School (Dai- Nichiren, May 2000 edition).
Fuji Gakurin is the school that Nikken started to belatedly replace Rissho University as the source of priest trainees for Nichiren Shoshu. Apparently, he only took this action after people started talking about the 26 Admonitions publicly (Living Buddhism article by Daisaku Ikeda in 1998). The sad fact is, that Nichiren Shoshu has violated all 26, most by the letter of the admonition, but all 26 by their intent.
In relatively short order after being rebuked in 1998, Nikken officially opened the Fuji Gakurin School on April 10th, 2000. Many attended and heard his statements: Nichijun Fujimoto, Nichiyu Yoshida, Nitto (Juken) Ohmura, Nichijo (Gikan) Hayase, Nissho (Shinei) Yagi, Chief of the Overseas Department Kotoku Obayashi, Chief of the Public Relations Department Kogaku Akimoto and Vice Chief of the Study Department Kosho Mizushima.
Nikken went on to state that "he had been contaminated by Minobu's teachings"...
"I once attended the University run by Nichiren-shu. The hardest thing for me in my campus life was that the teacher said many false things about the teachings and history of Nichiren Daishonin. I had always thought that I should refute these false ideas. However, I cannot say that that was my true intention, because I was only a student."
"When we constantly hear false things, we will be caught up in false ways of thinking, or I can say, we will be trapped in it. As I recall my early days, false ideas did exist in my view of Nichiren Buddhism, especially regarding the legitimate teachings of Nichiren-shoshu. At that time, I was not able to straighten out my thoughts sufficiently from the viewpoint of faith, action, study.... If I were young now, I could study with you, young fellows, in these classes, taught by these engaged teachers."
But his distorted views from Rissho were not left there at the University.
We are reminded of Nikken's words on October 8th, 1985, when he attended the completion ceremony of Komyoji Temple, Hachioji City, Tokyo. Kotoku Hirayama, the chief priest of the temple, asked Nikken, "What is the biggest obstacle you had in your practice?" Nikken answered, "It is that I could not truly believe in the Gohonzon. I cannot believe truly now. I have to really try."
Also, we are reminded of Nikken's statement that "Daigohonzon is a fake" from the Kawabe memo. This statement seems to be influenced by the author of "view of wood honzon is false", Minobu priest Bentetsu Yasunaga, who is an associate professor at Minobu's Rissho University and chief priest of Zenshoji Temple.
'In recent years, the exchange of Minobu priests and Nikken sect priests has become more frequent. Monks of the Nikken sect make pilgrimages to temples of Minobu sect with Hokkeko members, or they invite Minobu monks to Taisekiji. General chief of the Hokkeko federation, Kisoji Yanagisawa, made a pilgrimage to Kuonji Temple, the general head temple of the Minobu sect. We [the Fake Newsletter] have mentioned this issue before, and even "Emyo," one of organ papers of Nikken sect, could not argue against this. Taisekiji priests Kaido Seki, Jikei Maekawa, Kosho Mizushima, Sonfuku Ochiai, Gishu Funabashi, all made visits to Minobu's temples themselves. They later made excuses during lectures at their temples or in their temple newsletters, saying, "We went and saw the temple but did not chant."...etc.'
The proof of Rissho's heritage is on their own website, the page on "History of Rissho":.
'Over 120 Years of Tradition and 70 Years of History as a Modern Educational Institution'
'No other institution of higher education in Japan has a longer tradition than Rissho University.'
'Our founding dates back to 1580 when the "Iidaka- Danrin School" was established to educate student priests of the Nichiren sect of Buddhism. The school took its name from its location, Iidaka Town, which is now Yoka- lchiba City in Chiba Prefecture. Some of the ancient wooden structures have been carefully preserved and form part of the Hanko-ji Temple. These structures include the lecture hall, gate, drum tower and bell tower, which are designated as "Important Cultural Assets" by the Government. The school closed its gates in 1875. During its 295-year history, it produced a great many talented figures who made prominent contributions to promoting Buddhism and education in Japan.'
'Shortly before it [Iidaka-Danrin School] was closed, the "Nichiren-shu Shukyo-in" (Nichiren Religious Academy) was established in 1872 at the Jokyo-ji Temple in Takanawa, Tokyo, to succeed the "Iidaka-Danrin School" in modern times.'
'In 1904, the Academy was moved to Osaki,Tokyo, the present site of the main campus of Rissho University.'
'Authorized by the Government ordinance concerning colleges issued that year [1904], it opened its gates as "Nichiren-shu Daigakurin" (Nichiren Religious College).'
'When the Government issued an ordinance concerning universities in 1924, the University was reorganized into Rissho University with Faculty of Letters newly opened. Its doors were opened to both Nichiren priests and ordinary students.'
Hence, Nikken is more than simply an enemy of the Soka Gakkai and a very bad High Priest at the Fuji School.
Nikken is clearly not a follower of Nikko's School and never has been at any time. He is a follower of the Five Senior Priests and a minion of Minobu, in spite of what his conscious mind tells him. Consciousness is, after all, only one of Five Components.
THAT is my problem with Nikken and Nichiren Shoshu priests, in general. It is not that they hang out with bad women or good women.
Nikko's intent on that is absolutely clear in the 25th Admonition:
25. My disciples should conduct themselves as holy priests, patterning their behavior after that of the late master. However, even if a high priest or a priest striving for practice and understanding should temporarily deviate from [the principle of] sexual abstinence, he may still be allowed to remain in the priesthood [as a common priest without rank].
(from Living Buddhism 4/1998)
Nikko did not want the priesthood to be a self-sustaining community, where priesthood positions could be handed down to the kids, like a family business. He clearly intended that every priest should come from a family of lay believers, or spring forth spontaneously from the new membership.
This is abundantly clear, since abstaining priests cannot even donate to a sperm bank for artificial insemination. THEY CAN HAVE NO CHILDREN.
Frankly it is not my concern that that imposes an unhappy restriction on priests. Nichiren, Nikko, Nichimoku and Nichikan followed all 26 Admonitions abundantly well, and I only need to have those four priests in my life. I don't need any false priests that are lay-person wanna-bes.
And I am not the author of these restrictions, Nikko is. Argue with him (heh).
For myself, I have ABSOLUTELY no argument with Nikko, I follow all 26 of his admonitions, even the 2nd and the 25th: I will not lower his standards on training at Nichiren Shu or in accepting a priest who does not practice abstinence. PERIOD. Never. Not for anyone.
I will accept a priest that has never had any contact with, or priest-training from a follower of the Five Senior Priests (Nichiren Shu or Shoshu, or any other slanderous funeral Buddhism), and who practices abstinence and follows all 26 Admonitions of Nikko. From an excommunicated (Gakkai) family or off the street (common mortals are the true Buddha, according to Nichiren), either source is fine.
It is Nikko's undying determination in action ... that having violated any of the 26 Admonitions in a clear and obvious way ... one will then proceed to violate all the rest, including Admonition #1, which requires us to practice Buddhism in exactly the same way as Nichiren.
They may erect statues of Nichiren at Taisekiji and worship them, in the same way that the Tendai and Nichiren Shu worship statues of Shakyamuni, but there is ultimately no difference between these two slanders. Idolatry is not Nichiren's Buddhism. The Gohonzon is the "supreme object of devotion in all of Jambudvīpa."
From "The True Aspect of All Phenomena", WND p. 384:
A common mortal is an entity of the three bodies, and a true Buddha. A Buddha is a function of the three bodies, and a provisional Buddha. In that case, though it is thought that Shakyamuni Buddha possesses the three virtues of sovereign, teacher, and parent for the sake of all of us living beings, that is not so. On the contrary, it is common mortals who endow him with the three virtues.
"A common mortal is ... a true Buddha". And Nichiren and Shakyamuni are endowed with the three virtues of sovereign, teacher, and parent BY the common mortal, who is the true Buddha.
If Nichiren and Shakyamuni are somehow "special people", then we cannot match their accomplishment, and attain their Buddhahood.
They are NOT special humans. And we CAN attain their fierce determination for Kosen Rufu, which is no more and no less than their Buddhahood.
Indeed, we MUST attain that determination, or we shall surely fail to accomplish the ultimate intent of the Thus Come One (our true self).
This is why it is a slander for common mortals to worship statues of provisional Buddhas (they are all just humans, not objects of devotion).
This is why we have the Gohonzon, which reflects the Thus Come One inside our very own Sense Field = Six Components in Three Realms.
This is why we do shakubuku. The common mortal (true Buddha) we shakubuku endows the three virtues upon us, and that is our provisional Buddhahood. Without shakubuku, there is no Buddhahood.
So ... slander of Buddhism will always identify itself, by raising one person over another: over the common mortal. In the end, slanderers of the Law all make the same appearance, by worshiping statues of someone or other. (And, by the way, appreciation of your mentors: those who helped you along ... is NOT worship, it is merely showing your gratitude. We need to discard that fallacy.)
Next in Part II, we will apply the grid of the Hindu caste system to the Nichiren Shoshu priesthood. We will talk about some of the priesthood's socially unacceptable behavior, but really ... I only mention these instances to show pattern and connections between priest families.
submitted by Chas-- to SGIWhistleblowersMITA [link] [comments]

2024.05.29 05:12 kaaaathryn I've never felt so disrespected in my life.

I've never felt so disrespected in my life.
YUUUUUUPDATE:
For further information since some of yall wanna be technical about things, my consultation was March 11th and the appointment was the 25th. That's two weeks to the date and still "less than a month later". I really don't understand how someone could forget a vivid project during that time frame. And if you can't remember, then maybe do some client notes??? Idk? Also, I went back to their website to find pricing and it's now gone :) the price list :) but the internet never forgets. So here we go. On the left is an archived version of their website and on the right you can see they removed their price list from the Services tab. When you go to book an appointment, it just says prices vary for everything. The pricing list from my appointment time said "$200+" which, yeah, fair. You don't know how much color or lightener is going to be needed. But if it already includes vivid, why is there more color charge when I don't even have long hair? Do I need to have a pixie cut to get that "all inclusive" pricing? Anyone who thinks this pricing is appropriate is part of the problem and imma stand by that.
During our consult, she had also quoted me for removing the blue and said the whole project would be $600+ and that's when I mentioned I'm trying to budget and I'd like to go pink but keep it budget friendly. I knew some of the pricing while going into this, but it was still about $120+ more than I was expecting.
https://preview.redd.it/5eos5gezgi3d1.png?width=2554&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9eda854de5e887d6e882aadc1c0eb205b97fc9a
ANYWAYS. Thank you to those who shared love and grief. <3 and more love to the ADTR fans <3
Original Post:
It's okay to laugh.
I went to a consultation and talked about wanting lightener and pink for the one-year grow-out I had above my previous blue color. No specific pink, just pink. Came in for my appointment, not even a month later, and felt like the stylist forgot everything I had mentioned in my consultation but I reminded her about our pink color conversation (referenced a pink bottle, the same one from the consultation discussion) hoping that would help her remember ANYTHING we had talked about. But I guess not because the price at the end told me she hadn't heard or remembered a single thing. She lightened everything above my previous blue and applied pink. She charged me for color x2 and a glaze, while the lightener charge is supposed to include a vivid all-over color. She did not verify the extra charges with me while I was in the chair. The color job is a 9.5/10 but the disrespect is a 15/10. After she styled my hair, I asked if she had anything to remove the pink from my forehead, and THIS WOMAN LOOKED AT ME AND SAID NO. She proceeded to take me outside for photos and made sure to fluff my hair forward to cover the mess she made. Adding on two extra color charges as well as a glaze felt slimey after I had told her I was on a budget. Ended up paying over $500 with gratuity and walked out of the salon with sticker shock. The previous girl I went to would take 5 whole minutes to wipe my forehead, ears, and neck after coloring. But to not have color remover for your clients?! Since when?! Thankfully a sanitizer wipe took care of the mess. Who would've known that the solution would be so simple?
https://preview.redd.it/1ikzyzaw8a3d1.jpg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=796a5cb5a38d7921c9724933d1796af52eeeb86a
https://preview.redd.it/ftc1ktww8a3d1.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=afcfb2168eb9b12800d19f5234ce88506aff500b
https://preview.redd.it/n27qhwkx8a3d1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af4ee19d85fa0383a9b834412c5a10338203cee7
https://preview.redd.it/b42dh32y8a3d1.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=238f1e6fd6e11f44b442f76204bc3c4e882b4973
submitted by kaaaathryn to FancyFollicles [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 07:10 ShibaDoge42069 Libertarian(Lolbertarian ATP) Nominee for President. Wow, Ron Paul’s influence has left the party. I’m beyond disappointed.

Libertarian(Lolbertarian ATP) Nominee for President. Wow, Ron Paul’s influence has left the party. I’m beyond disappointed.
Getting roasted on X for being a woke leftist candidate who supports drag queen story hour, mask and vax mandates, among other things. Supported BLM like Jorgensen as well. SMFH man.
submitted by ShibaDoge42069 to trump [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 07:09 thecrgln I real don't wanna serve in the Russian army

Well, what the title says. I'm currently very close to graduating from college, which means Russian military complex wishes to snatch me right after that.
So I'm looking for pro gamer tips and trcks on how to evade that. Preferably from Russian AMAB folks who managed to successfully do so in the last two years.
All I know of is spending some time at a mental hospital, getting diagnozed with something mental. Like depression. And I'm open to that idea. The problem is me being a pussy, getting real nervous around people and stuff, so I need collect all my willpower for that.
And I'd like to learn how not to accidentally out myself to a possibly transphobic therapist. If you got other ideas, feel free to share.
So, somewhat of an FAQ based on the feedback I got:
A funky lil update, guys, gals and gexes.
So, today I went to college for some stuff. I also asked when will our thesis defense be held. It'll be June 24th or 25th, which is before my drafting, meaning the military commissariat will have a chance to snatch me.
But my teachers are also of the opinion that military service is cringe, especially now, with the war happening. So, they helped me to book the apointment at a psychiatrist. I'd be too nervous to do so on my own. I hope this'll work out alright.
On a completely unrelated note. Just watched Godzilla Minus One. Damn it's good. And got a quote that'll live in my head rent free for about a week. "It is precisely something to be proud of... that you have never been to war." So good. This movie made me cry like three or four times.
submitted by thecrgln to trans [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 06:58 ShibaDoge42069 Alright, how are you guys going to defend this one. This literally feels like the LP nominated this guy to help elect Trump at this point 😂 guy is getting roasted on X 🏧

Alright, how are you guys going to defend this one. This literally feels like the LP nominated this guy to help elect Trump at this point 😂 guy is getting roasted on X 🏧 submitted by ShibaDoge42069 to libertarianmeme [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 06:46 ShibaDoge42069 RIP the libertarian party. The days of Ron Paul are over 😔

RIP the libertarian party. The days of Ron Paul are over 😔 submitted by ShibaDoge42069 to Conservative [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 01:41 sonmanutd Thinking like a gambler: How many % of your net worth should be on Bitcoin?

Thinking like a gambler: How many % of your net worth should be on Bitcoin?
TLDR: This very much depends on the person’s risk tolerance. For a typically risk averse person with gamma = 2.0, and assume a return of BTC to be 20% annually and historical volatility of 77%, one should hold 12% of their allocation in BTC. Under-betting might lead to regret, while over-betting can lead to disastrous crash in happiness should the price reduce. Thus, determining your correct risk tolerance (gamma), is crucial to having a healthy investment life. Take the "Finding your own gamma" quiz to determine your risk tolerance, and then use it to look up the allocation table at the end of the article.

Introduction📘

How much of your net worth should you bet on Bitcoin? Here in cryptocurrency subreddit, we are all firm believers in BTC over the long term. Unsustainable fiscal policy and endless money printing from central banks all around the world have been lasting unabated since 1970, while no attempts at serious reforms are on the horizon. It all points towards the need to keep the fruits of our labors into a decentralized asset that not only is already the hardest to make, but also exponentially getting harder to make over time. And that asset is Bitcoin.
Yet, there has been surprisingly little consensus on how much of our net worth should be invested in Bitcoin. A walk around the subreddit shows all kinds of different numbers: 1%, 5%, 10%, 30% all the way to 100%. Some people suggest a rule of thumb like “only invest money you can afford to lose”, subjecting your allocation to wild swings that would wake you up at night checking Coinbase every minute for price movements.
It turns out, sizing your investment is just as important as deciding what to invest. How should we think about risk and uncertainty? What is the allocation that would allow us to enjoy the returns, while not being bothered by the wild swings of the market? What is the framework that helps us pick the sweet spot between regretting that we don’t invest enough, and regretting that we invest too much? How to truly be happy with our return of crypto assets, knowing that we have decided the best among the “what ifs”?

Why not 100% BTC?🚫💯

But first, let us ask ourselves a simple question. If we love Bitcoin so much and already believe that Bitcoin will deliver returns superior to all other investments, why don’t all of us invest 100% in BTC? In fact, some people do. To them, Bitcoin is already the last currency, the measuring stick that every single worth of labor and asset should convert to. If you are among this group, this article is not relevant for you.
The reality is that the vast majority of Bitcoin investors do so because they promise high returns relative to the fiat that they use daily for their daily needs. For all its flaws and inflations, the US dollar is still used in everyday life. People still spend 40 hours / week at work, knowing that they will have the same paycheck every 2 weeks for the rest of the year. The price of bananas and bread are stable day after day, even though they keep shrinking 5% every year. This perception of stability and convenience means that imagining wealth as the total amount of fiat remains hard-wired into many people for the time being.
And this means that the wild swing accompanying Bitcoin price is a major psychological baggage to all investors who see their wealth in dollars. A 100% Bitcoin allocation means that on a certain day, they might see a 5% drop or 5% gain in their net worth. They have to maintain their conviction during the long period of 2021 - 2023 where Bitcoin lost 80% from peak value, before finally recovering in late 2023. This can wreak havoc on a person’s psychological well being ranging from constantly being distracted from work to checking their portfolio to unloading their anger and stress to their wives and kids. Worst of all, the person might be emotionally tempted to panic sell at the worst moment, right before the price recovers, triggering a torrent of regrets.
All this points to the fact that we need a mathematical model to help us reason about not just the expected return, but also the potential loss that we incur so that we can size our bets just enough to both maximize return and minimize regrets. This is a kind of decision that gamblers have to think about on a constant basis, so let’s turn to them to see what we can learn!

Thinking like a gambler🎲

How does a gambler size his bet? I’ll bring up this classic example from the book The Missing Billionaires by Victor Haghani and James White. Suppose you have a starting wealth of $1,000. You are allowed to flip a coin that is loaded with a 60% chance of landing heads, and 40% of landing tails. You can make a bet of any fraction of your wealth from 1% to 100%. What is the optimal fraction of the bet that would allow you to reach as high of a payout as possible after 25 bets?
There are two lenses for looking at this problem. One is through the lens of expected value or average outcome. The expected value is defined as the total of the probability of each outcome times the value of each outcome. The full equation is the following
https://preview.redd.it/uttiopa6123d1.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=93b471519244a3b6ea05f06f7c04219fd878a927
In which:
  • p: probability of winning the coin toss. 0.60 in this case
  • a: bet size.
  • Wi: is wealth after i bets. W0 would be 1000 in this case.
  • n: Number of coin tosses. 25 in this case.
Bet Size (%) Expected Wealth
5.0 1,282.43
10.0 1,640.61
20.0 2,665.84
50.0 10,834.71
75.0 32,918.95
100.0 95,396.22
From the chart above, it seems that the bet that maximizes the average outcome would be to bet 100% of your money on every bet, yet it should be clear that no sane person in the world would bet like this! You only get your pay out if you win every single bet, and that even if just one bet lands on tail, you risk losing everything!
So perhaps the median outcome would be a better choice here? We are clearly not looking to just maximize the profit, but also maximize the profit gauging the potential loss we can incur when we are unlucky with the coins. Therefore, perhaps we should maximize our money in the event that we are neither lucky or unlucky with the coins?
Using median, 25th percentile and 75th percentile, and now we have a surprisingly complicated picture.
Bet Size (%) 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile Expected Wealth
5.0 1018.93 1244.73 1520.57 1282.43
10.0 975.02 1456.52 2175.78 1640.61
20.0 735.25 1654.32 3722.21 2665.84
38.0 212.39 1052.21 5212.88 6241.76
50.0 47.51 427.63 3848.68 10834.71
75.0 0.09 4.22 206.62 32918.95
100.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 95396.22
The bet size that maximizes the median wealth would be 20% per bet. If you happened to answer 20% when I posed this question to you then congratulations! You truly have the instinct of a gambler, because 20% happens to be the bet size that matches the Kelly Criterion. Kelly Criterion is a strategy that helps gamblers in their game, as well as hedge fund managers and investors world wide in sizing their bets.
But would the optimal bet size for everybody be 20%? Not quite. Looking at the table again, and it would not be surprising to see that some people are uncomfortable with 20%:
  • At 20% bet, the median wealth appears to be very high at $1654.32 (a whopping 65.4% return), but the outcome at 25th percentile represents the ending wealth of $735.25 (a 26.5% loss) that can feel really uncomfortable.
  • For those that are risk-averse, perhaps a 10% bet (also known as half-Kelly) could be better here, as they don’t even lose that much in the 25th percentile case (-2.5%), while still having a decent return of 45.6% at median outcome.
  • For those that are risk-tolerant, they are ambivalent about the game and don’t care much about the median outcome, but look to have a huge payout. Perhaps a 38% bet would be better here! They will most likely regain the same money that they have before, yet their expected value is much bigger at $6241.5 (+524.1% return) and that their 75th percentile outcome is a whopping $5212.88 (+412.9% return), a massive increase from.
Thus, it is clear that we are still missing a second piece of the puzzle. We need to determine our own level of risk tolerance in order to make a bet effectively. For reference, here is the full spectrum of outcome at each bet size from 1% to 100%. You are very likely to lose money if you bet too large, even if the odd is in your favor.
https://preview.redd.it/28hwzvfe123d1.png?width=1521&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8fd6da8a0593bf81c6f5b348beec6ca067b581c
100% BTC example
As a fun exercise, assume that we believe in the power law of Bitcoin, dictating that it would return 33% / year over the next 10 years, while the historical volatility of Bitcoin is 77%. This basically converts a 100% BTC portfolio into a bet size of 84% and a coin toss of 70/30. The median outcome of your portfolio after 25 years (similar to 25 coin tosses) would be the following:
Bet Size (%) 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile Expected Wealth
84.0 1.19 (-99.8%) 156.88 (-84.3%) 1804.09 (+80.4%) 1,396,888.00
This is a disastrous bet. The median case makes you lose 84.3% of your starting wealth, while the 25% percentile you have a potential wipe out. On the other hand, at 75th percentile, you only gain 80.4%, which is even less than had you made a safer 10% or 20% bet. I hope this has convinced you that even if you trust BTC completely and are extremely risk-tolerant, there is still such a thing as an overbet! Learning your own risk tolerance to size your bet appropriately is a crucial exercise that will help you tremendously in your investment journey!

The Utility of Wealth: Losing money hurts much more than gaining money💸

But how do we model different levels of risk-tolerance across different people? For this point, there are some common principles:
  • Gaining money generally means more joy, and losing money generally means more pain
  • The pain of losing money is often bigger than the joy of gaining the same amount.
Combining these two principles, we can see that the level of happiness does not linearly scale with the level of wealth, but is more like a log curve where gaining wealth has a diminishing return of joy, while losing wealth has an increasing reduction of pain. As Daniel Kahnemann succinctly captured it, "The pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining"
Due to the law of diminishing utility, if loss = gain, then pain > joy
Kahnemann quotes captures the essence of expected utility (happiness), but does not help us determine the level of risk tolerance. The phrase “twice as powerful” does not apply to everyone. What if it is 3 times or 4 times as powerful for risk averse people, while only 1.5 as powerful for risk-tolerant people? For this, we need another variable to determine the level of risk tolerance. Here is the complete formula of the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA), which represents the amount of utility given wealth relative to the base level
https://preview.redd.it/lvnzb6nl123d1.png?width=334&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9492e6b6a7686abb1d2ebe6a769edf130233d9c
In which:
  • W represents wealth relative to the base level.
  • γ (gamma) is the coefficient of relative risk aversion.
When γ = 1, we have
https://preview.redd.it/4runyy3n123d1.png?width=367&format=png&auto=webp&s=75dd7ba33e4a7d55367df8896db59eaa12f94a07
Let’s visualize our utility functions with different values of gamma
https://preview.redd.it/nltbkrso123d1.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=913879a3ca464b079a3df26db1d0bb2f228333f3
We can see that:
  • γ = 0 represents someone who is completely risk-neutral. For someone like this, they don’t care about the risk and simply want to maximize expected value as much as possible. For this person, the optimal strategy for a 60/40 coin would be to bet 100% all the time. We now know that no sane person would actually have a gamma = 0.
  • γ = 1 represents a typical Kelly better, where doubling your money would feel the same joy as the pain they feel from losing half of it. If you have gamma = 2.0, you would have roughly the same risk tolerance as a normal person, characterized by the fact that doubling the money and losing half the money are symmetrical. This person would be ambivalent about two choices between keeping all their current wealth or to either double or half their wealth at equal chance.
  • γ = 2 according to White and Haghani, often represents a typical person. For this person, losing half the money would generate twice more pain than doubling the money. (Did this remind you of the saying "The pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining" by Kahnemann?)
  • γ = 3 represents someone that is much more risk averse than normal. For this person losing half the money would generate 4 times more pain than doubling the money.
Now that we have a formula for deciding our risk tolerance, let’s instead optimize for expected utility instead of expected wealth. Simply replace W (wealth) with U(W) (utility of wealth), and we have the following formula
https://preview.redd.it/ch4aj9gr123d1.png?width=1174&format=png&auto=webp&s=1299e5ad7b8fc68d3eebbcef779cec962358efa0
Now, let’s visualize the different levels of utility at different bet size to figure out what is the optimal bet size given different risk tolerance.
https://preview.redd.it/por4xlxz123d1.png?width=1533&format=png&auto=webp&s=2301e6112834ad1fc397a0ead6fb660b22c3dc54
Look at this stuff, isn’t it neat? This neatly explains why some people might prefer betting 10%, while others might feel more comfortable with 38%. That is because this level of bet truly optimizes their internal level of happiness based on their own risk tolerance!
We now have a way to determine the optimal allocation based on the the odds and our own gamma. Or more broadly, given an expected risk, expected return and a personal level of tolerance, we have a framework to determine the size of the bet that would maximize our happiness!
A few final notes:
  • The level of happiness is very personal and not comparable. We wouldn’t want to say that a risk-taking person is generally more happy than a risk-averse person (though perhaps there is some truth to it?). The CRRA framework helps us determine the optimal bet size for happiness, but it doesn’t tell us how risk-averse we should be.
  • Notice that around the optimal point, the expected utility remains largely flat, meaning that you can deviate from the optimal bet size by a little bit and mostly gets near optimal expected utility. But if you get it very wrong, the consequence could be very drastic!
  • The lower your risk-tolerance, the more sensitive you are to changes in happiness relative to bet size. Therefore, be very careful and precise about your allocation if you are a risk averse person!
Notice that the level of happiness can be drastically different based on your risk tolerance. A bet of 20% that feels very comfortable for a person with gamma = 1 will feel extremely uncomfortable for someone with gamma = 3. Bitcoin is for everyone, but not of all sizes. Knowing your own gamma is crucial in determining that bet size that is right for you.
100% BTC example
Back to the person who bets 100% on BTC, which is again equivalent to a 84% bet on a 70/30 coin. This is the expected level of happiness of that person.
Gamma 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0
84.0 -9.68e-01 -9.18e+00 -1.90e+11 -4.64e+29
It is all negative! Even for someone that is unusually risk tolerant like gamma = 0.5, the bet is still a significant overbet compared to their risk tolerance!
You might have noticed that the expected utility framework will produce very negative numbers when the ending wealth is nearing 0. This is a fair criticism of the expected utility framework, especially in the case of near total loss (Is a person who lost 99.9% of their wealth that much more unhappy than someone with 99%?). But given there have been cases of life-threatening circumstances due to near total loss of wealth, we can all agree that sizing our investment based on our risk tolerance to avoid getting near that level of loss is something that we should treat seriously.

Finding your inner gamma🔍

Okay, if you have read until this point and are convinced that determining risk tolerance is important, let’s find our own gamma. Now, the issue with the CRRA framework is that the utility value appears kind of abstract. What does an increase of 0.50 utility actually mean to us? And how does it help us determine our gamma?
Fortunately for us, we can frame our question in a different way to decide our gamma value. Notice that for someone with gamma = 1, their expected utility would be 0 if they bet around 40%, meaning that if they face the problem of picking a bet size for tossing a 60/40 coin 25 times, they are basically ambivalent between not participating in the game at all, and participate the game at bet size of 40%. This number is 20.60% and 13.33% for gamma = 2 and gamma = 3. Thus, we can ask the following questions:
Given that you have $1000 and are invited to place bet on a 60/40 coin 25 times, how much money would make you ambivalent between playing and not playing the game?
But even that is a little bit abstract! Let me place it in a few more realistic scenarios! Assuming that you currently have $100,000 net worth. Please take a moment to answer the following questions honestly and truthfully.
Question 1
You have a choice between a certain amount or a 1% chance to win $100,000 and a 99% chance to win $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
  • a) $830
  • b) $695
  • c) $500
  • d) $375
Question 2
You have a choice between paying a certain amount for insurance or having a 1% chance of losing $50,000 and a 99% chance of losing $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between paying the premium and not paying it?
  • a) $585
  • b) $690
  • c) $990
  • d) $1,450
Question 3
You have a choice between getting paid a guaranteed amount, or performing a coin toss in which there is a 50% chance to win $50,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
  • a) $18,000
  • b) $16,000
  • c) $12,500
  • d) $9,100
Question 4
You are forced to play a game where there is a 50% chance to win $10,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000, unless you pay a fee. What amount of fee would make you ambivalent between paying the fee and playing the game?
  • a) $250
  • b) $500
  • c) $1,000
  • d) $1,490
This quiz will work better if you actually put in your real net worth and the answer scales respectively with your net worth. I have have also prepared a notebook that allows you to type in your net worth and automatically scales up all answers here, please DM me for access. Take some time on the quiz to find your true risk tolerance! Feel free to pick a number that is in between as well!
The answer a, b, c, d will match up with γ = 0.5, γ = 1, γ = 2 and γ = 3 respectively.

Putting everything together📊

Okay. Now that I know my own gamma, how much of my money should I put in BTC? Remember that the optimal bet size also depends on the odds too! For a gamma = 1, if the coin is 60/40, then you should bet 20%. If the coin is 70/30, then you should bet 40%. If the coin is 100/0, then you should clearly bet everything!
Thus, one way we can think about the sizing of BTC is to convert its expected return into a coin toss. I think it would be safe to assume a conservative case that BTC has the same amount of volatility that it has previously, which is 77%. Now, depending on how much you believe in BTC, you will have a different notion of expected return. If you believe in the Power Law, then the next 10 years would bring approximately 33% return per annum. I personally used a more conservative 20% annual return for my calculation.
From that point, subtract the return by about 4% (to cancel out the risk-free return of treasury bills), you can use the expected return and volatility to back calculate the coin toss odds and the equivalent bet size. I’ll spare you the math on this one and simply show you the different odd and bet size, given the different levels of expected return as the following.
Expected return Adjusted expected return (in excess of treasury bonds) Coin toss probability Bet size equivalent to 100% BTC allocation
10% 6% 53.88% 77.23%
15% 11% 57.07% 77.78%
20% 16% 60.17% 78.64%
25% 21% 63.16% 79.81%
33% 29% 67.62% 82.28%
40% 36% 71.18% 85.00%
50% 46% 75.64% 89.69%
Now that you have the coin toss odd, you can use our expected utility framework to calculate the optimal bet size, and then scale it with the bet size of 100% BTC allocation equivalent.
Expected return Adjusted expected return (in excess of treasury bonds) Optimal allocation (γ = 0.5) Optimal allocation (γ = 1) Optimal allocation (γ = 2 - typical person) Optimal allocation (γ = 3)
10% 6% 15.60% 7.80% 3.90% 2.34%
15% 11% 27.50% 14.14% 7.07% 4.71%
20% 16% 38.93% 20.65% 10.33% 7.15%
25% 21% 49.18% 26.60% 13.71% 8.87%
33% 29% 62.33% 34.91% 18.28% 12.47%
40% 36% 72.12% 42.07% 22.32% 14.60%
50% 46% 81.54% 51.64% 27.18% 19.03%
And that's it! You are done! Congratulations for making it this far🎉. How does it look to you? Was it lower or higher than what you expected? Personally, may gamma = 2.35 and I believe BTC will gain 24% annually. This translates to a 15% BTC allocation in my portfolio,

This is just the beginning🚀

If you make it this far, I hope you are convinced to take the sizing decision seriously. Expected Utility is truly a powerful framework to help you make sizing decisions not just in bitcoin, but also in so many other aspects of life stocks, bonds, mortgages, exiting the IPO, etc.
And this is just the beginning. How should our BTC be if we now have an additional asset class like stock on the table? What about other cryptos? How much should I keep and how much should I exit if my coins are already 10x? These are all crucial questions that we will have to leave to future additions of the series.
What was your gamma and your optimal allocation? Was it lower or higher than what you expected? Did you feel overexposed or underexposed in your current allocation of BTC? Let me know in the comments below.
submitted by sonmanutd to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 01:20 forthelove13 Alright whose ready for a book? Does Matt change the narrative?

Alright whose ready for a book? Does Matt change the narrative?
*get the popcorn. It’s LONG! And no I don’t care. 🤷‍♀️ I simply recorded my thoughts while I binged the show. Yes I have a lot of time on my hands right now recovering from spinal surgery. (I also walked 3.5 miles today, my longest yet!! Big day!!) No I normally can’t do this and I kept trying to shorten it but you know what?! I don’t care about your judgement ha.
I highly recommend reading my last post to give more context here. Enjoy!
I started this just to see if the narrative we know “the boys are lazy and entitled brats, who are withholding their grandchildren from Matt and caryn because they are mad they didn’t get the farm” was true or Matts narrative.
I have my own thoughts on this, but I wanted proof that Matt is changing the narrative as zach states before I officially decided.
Here goes!
-Matt offers to buy Amy out for the rest of the farm (she already sold a little to him) and her shares of the business with an expiration date of December 2019. Amy doesn’t take it. -Jeremy comes in may of 2020 and places a bid to buy the farm and it doesn’t happen
SUMMER OF 2020 -Zach tells Matt he is ready to throw their name in the ring to buy the farm -Matt has zach help encourage his mom to officially sell it off to him. He tells Tori once his dad buys his mom out it will make whoever buys the farm next more simple and Tori says “yeah cleaner for sure”. PAUSE: these are the quotes that Matt makes about Zach when he is trying to get Zach’s help to get the full farm. 1. “Zach is stepping up and currently keeps up with the maintenance and tours at pumpkin season” 2. “I know how much Zach does on the farm.” 3. “You are always humbled as parents when your kids want to carry on a family legacy” 4. “I have noticed Zach has stepped it up on the farm in the last 2 years.” 6. “Zach has really done a lot around here and both boys have made a lot of contributions…he doesn’t just say it… he’s been putting in the work!” (Zach also says he knows his dad sees the work he puts in)
  • Amy negotiates to $975,000 for the rest of the farm AND the rest of her parts of the business. Amy will be a lien holder until it’s paid. (It wasn’t paid at the start of the sale but rather sometime after- it is paid off now)
  • Nothing huge, decision wise with the farm goes on until the summer of 2021
  • Zach works with Matt on clearing out some of the woods so he and Jackson can camp (shows him taking initiative)
JUST MY OPINION: Something has to have happened in this time not shown because Zach’s attitude changes a ton in interviews and says that his dad has been this successful because he does whatever he wants without concern for others. It is a big change of tone
  • Sometime in September of 2021, Zach goes to Matt and have the negotiating that blows it all up.
  • Zach and Tori buy a house 3 weeks later and move .We have all seen the episode after things blow up, so I’m not going to focus on those as much… and more on what happens right before the house is out up for sale.
SPRING OF 2022 Before I add the post that Matt put on social media the day the farm went up for sale in may of 2022, I want to share things he himself said on the show. (Adding in what Amy and Zach stated and where the family was at relationship wise) MATT QUOTES/COMMENTS - “Jeremy came in with an offer and that didn’t quite work out, then zach came in with an offer on the farm, it didn’t quite work out.” - This is the first time we hear a mention about how he doesn’t just have 2 kids - This is where Matt mentions for the first time the cost of building his new home and talks about simplifying his life - EXACT quote from Matt: “the way the market is going today every day the number continues to change. It was Two years ago when Amy sold me her half and the number has continued to go up. It’s going up when I got it and it’s going up still.” - EXACT quote from matt: “Zach is going to be shocked when he hears what my listing price is gonna be compared to the price he was offered, I think zach missed out on a very very good deal. I think the kids passed on something that made a lot of sense.”
PAUSE: During this time, Zach invites Matt over to his house to see the sandbox. Zach and Tori both come across as awkward but kind. Tori tells Zach to show Matt her ultrasound, they were all laughing. (Matt knows he is putting the farm up for sale and doesn’t talk to Zach about it in person.) Zach said it was good to have him there, we are learning the new normal and we are good where it is right now. Both say things went well and they are taking strides in the right direction.
  • Amy acknowledges that had she known this was going to be the outcome, she could have just stuck it out and negotiated the crap out of Matt. She knew she was using an older assessment. Amy says she questioned Matt on the last comments to the kids and understands that you can change your mind, “but that kind of woodpecker impact of legacy, the farm, roloff farms, the family, you know from when they were like 5 years old to even 30. That isn’t just going to go away in a snap” (side note I love the woodpecker analogy. It fits Matt perfectly ha)
  • MATT says that he “wanted to sell the farm to zach but there were expectations that just couldn’t be met” and he is “flexible” but when he didn’t get exactly what he wanted he walked. (Zach and Tori state caryn declared the meeting was done- and ended it not them)
  • Zach says for the first time that he was ok not buying the farm, he has always known that could be the reality, it was how it went down. He says there was lying and deceit. (Both zach and Tori say they think the grandpa relationship is important)
IMPORTANT-
I think this is one of the most important parts of all of this.
this next part was a convo amy and Matt had 3 DAYS prior to the farm being put up. - Amy confronts Matt in the price, saying he knows the kids can’t afford that and Matt said “they knew the family discount” - Amy tells him she wasn’t stupid and knows they used an old assessment for their sale. They BOTH knew she left money on the table to pass along to the boys - Matt says the boys didn’t like that it was just 16 acres and he couldn’t make it more because there are more kids - Amy hit on the legacy dream HE built in their heads their whole lives - Amy tells him he has to take responsibility - He said he does take responsibility (my own side eye at Matt here) - Matt says that the feeling of entitlement ruined it for him. Amy asked him what that means and he says that they expected to get it for free, the work, theyre not going to work for it, take care of it. - Amy says (WHAT WE HAVE ALL BEEN THINKING) “what work? If you are selling it who cares what they do? Thats not your work…” - Matt ignores that and says “well it was the entitlement along the way, from the the beginning of time with the broken windows, there was a lot of entitlement. I get they were trying to have a lot of fun, but those kids tore the shit out of the place and you know that weighed on me.” Amy says “you can’t blame that on the kids. You would come to me complaining that the kids are spoiled and I told you then you can’t blame that on the kids. You aren’t born spoiled.” -They go on to fight about which one of them spoiled them more (Matt buying them atvs) -Matt says he was the disciplinarian and tried to FULLY point at amy for everything - Then Matt says “Amy tries to live in the past” after saying what the boys did on the farm 15+ years ago hit him hard - Amy and Zach have both said the biggest issue is that he doesn’t take ownership for his part in this all.
Ok PAUSE: this is all RIGHT before Matt puts the house up for sale and posts this(only adding important parts): "My ultimate hope was that the entire Roloff Farms property would stay in our family for generations to come". Keeping that dream alive at this point in time was just not meant to be. Unfortunately, Roloff Farm farm cannot be legally divided into multiple parcels. My twin boys decided not to consider working together toward a possible joint sale. Both of them (along with their growing families) had moved on to other interests and investments.... and even tho a substantial family discount and a "gift of equity" was offered by both Amy and I.... (and I still owe Amy a bundle of money) they decided individually that the timing was not right for them to purchase a part of the farm at this time. Based on that, turning the big 60 in my cranky old body, the continuing maintenance/demands of the farm- the difficult decision was made so I could take steps toward my retirement goals.”
Zach comments ON THIS POST (and note prior to this they at a minimum we’re still seeing each other and glad things were healing) "Once again like he has for most of his life not taking responsibility for his own actions and blaming others. Dragging the family drama that he created and then manipulate the fan base to make himself come out okay. This post his a new shocking low of cowardice and manipulation of his family and kids for his own gain”
Ok now my thoughts:
Guys this WHOLE THINGS HAS LITTLE to do with the sale of the farm. The whole thing is at most 25% who got the farm. The rest can be understood with a few things.
  1. Matts timing. We have to remember most of the content is 6 months or more beforehand. Family drama that happened- likely has started to heal (like Zach and Tori said) EVERYTIME it starts to heal… Matt makes a post PUBLICLY. It strums up controversy shortly before a season starts or when they need attention for the show. For example matt made his huge NDA post a few weeks ago… this was over a YEAR since the shows filming ended and they are making strides again… and boom. He makes a post and says this “As you all know both Jeremy and Zach expressed interest, at virtually the same time, several years ago (Fall 2021) in purchasing the Big house that sits on the North farm. As twins they have always been super competitive but this was one situation that I couldn't let one win over the other”. Guess who was invited to Entertainment Tonight when that post made headlines? FIRST LIE- YOU READ EVERYTHING ABOVE RIGHT? Jeremy and Zach did not come in at the same time. Both parties have said it was very far apart. Jeremy in may of 2020/Zach in September of 2021. This isn’t at ALL what Matt states himself. This is totally different. And like the last time- Zach addresses it in their podcast instead of Instagram. (And I don’t blame him) He says he has no desire to mend a relationship that yet again they felt like the dust had settled post production and he twists the reality for fans on social media at a convenient time. Basically once production is done, they start to mend things… 6months to a year later… right before it is about to air… Matt makes a social media post and says something the make Z/T sound terrible and get people on his narrative. (And pissed at zach for holding on for so long)
  2. Guys. Matt is 100% ok with people doing things for him so he isn’t the bad guy. Back a million points ago, Matt uses Zach to get Amy to sell the farm. Matt uses Amy’s love for the kids to get a good price. Matt uses social media/the public to place guilt on Zach and Tori because “he doesn’t see the grandkids!” People are so so mean to them about the grandkids things like Matt birthed them himself. But they are mean to them because Matt puts out posts and talks about it EVERY EPISODE after the feud.
  3. I also think Matt is now using his relationship with Jacob to make the boys feel bad. Remember all the comments above about how Zach was stepping up, helping at the farm? All about how he sees it and he knows what a harder worker he is…and while he didn’t say it on the show… social media shows Jeremy doing a LOT at the farm prior to the 2020 failed purchase. Then how that changed later to them not doing anything and was too lazy to run the farm, it was too much responsibility? That they didn’t want to work for anything? Look at his recent comments about Jacob…”Our youngest who broke away from 'the crazy train' early to go see the world now in a poetic turn of events has returned with his family to an open canvas of opportunity. He's taking great advantage of many possibilities. The 90 + acre farm. He is living and working full time with his wife and son Mateo (named in my honor) on the farm.” Does this sound familiar to anyone? Oh wait there is more “He has developed over the past 2 1/2 years a burning passion to run and generate his own projects on the farm-- He enjoys milling his own lumber, all things mechanical, setting up the annual pumpkin patch business while planting hundreds of new fruit trees and building gardens that grow their own organic foods and vegetables to feed his family (and me) -- Him and Izzy are passionate about the soil and the environment and they bring me fresh eggs from our chickens every other morning- They live on the farm and are always around working away with little Mateo collecting eggs and helping his dad pull the tools around in his wagon” I am not discounting the work jacob has put in, it sounds like a ton! And good for him! I just really hope Matt isn’t using him.
  4. THE SHOWS LEGACY. Matt isn’t stupid and makes these posts to fit his narrative …not for the family relationships but to generate interest in the show. Matt made a quote recently that while they see the comments about mending relationships- but no one wants a show where everyone gets along. It is not a surprise that he plays the viewers. He will 100% sacrifice the public hating his kids and saying TERRIBLE things about them and their parenting… to keep people talking.
  5. Matt KNOWS that people are right. He was pushing the boys away and making excuses because he saw the dollar signs post COVID on the farm and he didn’t want to admit that. (Especially Zach saying he came with the pricing from his sale with his mom and Matt was WAY over the appreciation) Amy also calls him out and he ignores it. -The thing about maintenance? Even amy called him out. So he ignored it.
  6. Matt then randomly threw out the entitled thing? From when they were growing up. (And then said Amy was living in the past 😂🤦‍♀️) first time that has EVER been brought up? 3 days before he put it up for sale. Amy puts that on BOTH of them and Matt moves on again. *He finally stopped saying they weren’t working for it because his own comments shows they were. *He knows he only thing that has held at all is the “I have 3 other kids” thing. And says he couldn’t give one of the boys “more land” like they both wanted… because it’s not fair to everyone else. Matt. You did 16 acres. There are 109 acres. Split that 4 ways is 27.25. Oh and- you were having that kid pay for it, which is fine, but that does nothing but give the other kids additional money in their inheritance.
  7. Zach is right guys. I can’t even try to spin it for Matt when I compare social media and the show. Matt gets on at a SUPER convenient time to air drama, the drama that he did (and even stating the show needs it) create and sadly he does twist the narrative so viewers watch the whole season from his viewpoint. He sacrifices his own children’s and in turn grandchildren’s mental health, emotional health and I’m sure physical health - so that he looks good. It’s almost terrifying.
  8. Matt is trying to say Zach and Jeremy “weren’t working” for the farm. They didn’t want to do any work… yet applauds them both for venturing out on their own and accomplishing so much “on their own farms” (FYI MATT IS THE ONE STARTING THIS WHOLE ” THEY LIVE ON A FARM” THING- zach never refers to it as that). Matt almost takes credit for destroying everything because “they are doing great! I am so proud of them!” No matt. They are making something for themselves out of the ashes you left from the farm bonfire you had. Maybe, just maybe they were as incapable as you portrayed them to everyone.
I want to say that I don’t think that Matt is 100% a terrible person. I have someone like this in my life that does or says things that paint others in a bad light by saying seemingly positive things. It’s so hurtful and they are so consumed with their own world they don’t even realize it. That is why Zach and Tori are staying away. Not they they don’t love matt, they just can’t keep on this circus. They can’t just wait for Matt’s next post strumming up drama in their lives. They can’t keep putting their children in a spot to be used as the pawns matt is still using them as. I don’t know agree with Zach and Tori on all the things. But rewatching trying to prove matt right- I just… couldn’t do it.
Matt saw dollar signs. Matt got caught up in the post COVID numbers. Matt… got greedy. Matt was willing to risk his entire families relationships so that he could build a mansion 400ft away from that house. Matt was willing to risk it all because the family time and time again (like his affair…) forgive him without him actually making changes. He will say he wasn’t perfect to appease viewers- but if he doesn’t change he wasn’t sorry for them.
Ps. Matt says he can’t play favorites and have Jacob a 1960 VW bug -once owned by his grandpa for his 25th birthday. (And also, I love this for Jacob because man that kid has been through it.. he deserves this. But it shows we aren’t soooo worried about playing favorites…)
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2024.05.26 23:26 Important-Party-9813 no contact for the 3rd what time

hey im new here but need advice/thoughts. so this is probably the 3rd time me and my now ex have gone no contact.
Christmas eve 2023: the first time was done by him on Christmas eve when he completely ghosted me. i was feeling so emotionally sick and unmotivated because he ghosted me and i never thought he would do something like that
January 12th: i ended up texting him in mid January when we got back to college for spring semester so that he can bring my jacket that i had left in his car over the break to campus (we live in 2 diff states and he lives in my college town). he immediately responded and said okay. he knocked and asked to talk. i agreed and the talk ended in us fucking and getting back together. things were feeling good and then we lasted until this month May.
May 12th: the second time we went no contact was 2 weeks ago and he basically ghosted me again. i was cool this time around though because i was over it and didn’t feel like begging him to stay even though i really wanted it to work. but overall i was fine emotionally.
May 19th: a week later from the second time he hit me up via iMessage because he saw that a “friend” of his reposted and commented on one of my pictures on twitter. i put friend in quotes bc they aren’t really close but call themselves friends because his other friend is their mutual he was mad at me because i liked his friends comment and followed him but i didn’t care because of things he’s done in the relationship and followed multiple girls while with me as well as dm’ing them. anyways majority of the message thread from this day was him asking me to unfollow him, calling me names, and saying that “im trying him”. i unfollowed his friend so he could shutup and he was cool about it. then he ended the convo by saying if i need anything he’s here and i liked the message and didnt respond because again, i was fine emotionally this time around and didn’t care to make us anything more than wat were at the time … just ex’s. anyways about an hour or 2 later he texted again saying that he wants to apologize for the previous week and that he doesn’t want us to be on bad terms. i said ok and then he asked to talk over the phone. during the phone call he said he wants to get back together and i honestly didnt care about getting back together, i felt fine, i was happy going to the gym and work and being in my own bubble. but of course silly ole me decided to get back together with him yet again. i said that i would only get back together with him if he stops following girls and liking their pics and dm’ing them. he said ok, same to u i dont want u doing that either and we agreed.
May 22nd: a few days later after getting back together, i was on the phone with him one day at work because i worked a closing shift. so im closing with my manager who’s a male, and he said something that made me laugh so i laughed and my ex got mad. he said he didnt want me laughing at another man’s jokes. i apologized and said ok and we were ok after that.
May 25th: my ex likes the lakers because of lebron so my manager (the same one who’s joke i laughed at) brought a pair of lakers pants over to the register and i was like wait hold the pants up im gonna take a picture to send to my bf. i sent my bf the pic and he got mad because of the other day when i laughed with him. that basically led us to get into another argument and he said “atp idk about u anymore” and i responded and he left me on read for the night. after that i blocked him on everything, all social media and i blocked his number.
May 26th (today): i was being weak and texted him this morning saying that he can do him because he’s being weird. he said he’s not gonna keep stressing himself out bc i dont respect him. i said he was being weird over something dumb and he said he has his reasons. i asked him if he’s done and to use his words and just say that instead of just liking the message. but he liked the message anyway and i just decided to block him. he also went on a following spree on ig while we were communicating so that said enough as well. he doesn’t care so neither should i.
he’s blocked and staying blocked even tho sometimes i get the urge to lurk on his page but im trying to fight it. i also told my friend that im going no contact and he’s blocked and if i even think about being weak for him that i owe her $50.
so good luck to me, the longest we’ve gone without speaking to each other was 2 weeks & i know that i can go longer but if anyone has any tips to help with that i’d appreciate it.
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2024.05.26 22:29 littlelulumcd Billboard's Woman of the Decade award: Revisiting Taylor's speech

Billboard's Woman of the Decade award: Revisiting Taylor's speech
As discussed in my most recent post, I’m continuing my journey of revisiting Taylor’s past. I think it is one of the keys to understanding the story Taylor tried to tell before and the story she is telling today.
Also, in the words of the Manuscript:
And the years passed
Like scenes of a show
The Professor said to write what you know
Lookin' backwards
Might be the only way to move forward
Before I get to the speech, a reminder on some events that took place before the Woman of the Decade award was given to Taylor.
Speech context
Taylor announced her plan to rerecord her first six albums on August 21, 2109 - ✌🏻days before Lover was released.
The Billboard Woman of the Decade ceremony took place on December 12, 2109. AKA, the night before Taylor turned 30. I mentioned in my AMA post that I’m not sure when these types of awards are decided, but I can’t help thinking about what could have been if this award was given to Taylor post coming out. And what that might have looked like.
In the lead up to the AMAs, Taylor had a public battle with both SBs because they wouldn’t grant her permission to sing any songs from her first six albums when she performed at the awards show.
On November 14th, Taylor tweeted about the fight and then, rightly or wrongly, Taylor asked her fans to let the SBs know how they felt about that decision. Swifties definitely answered that call.
Four days later, Big Machine granted her permission to perform any song she wanted - at least for that one night. How lucky for her 🙄
Speech Analysis
In the spirit of full disclosure, what first caught my eye about Taylor’s speech is her outfit. While yes, I do think she looks amazing lol, I thought her outfit was purple which would have pointed to my theory that “Speak Now connects to everything”, but my research tells me the outfit is a dark blue.
(Unhinged 🤡 theory: maybe the outfit really is purple, and this is the origin of the Taylor trying to convince us that her blood in the Anti-Hero video is midnight blue instead of glittery purple, hahahaha)
That being said, even though the outfit isn’t purple, I want to note that her hair is in a braid. There have been a lot of theories about what braids can mean, or what Taylor is trying to signal when she wears one. Braids have been showing up for a while. For the purposes of this look back, I want to point a recent post from u/Kit10phish.
Specifically this part of what they wrote:
I subscribe to the braid theory Braded-Lyrics: Each song has many different strands woven together: Muse, music industry, fans, sometimes historical events or mythology.
I definitely agree with this take, and I also think the theory extends to more than lyrics. I think there is a lot the Billboard’s Woman of the Decade speech that (either planned or not), foreshadows and ties together things we’ve seen play out over the last 5 years.
We know at this point that Taylor had decided to rerecord her first six albums. I also think Ms. Mastermind had a plan for how she thought it would play out and also had a plan to make sure she felt she could come out at the end ,or, within the rerecording process. Obviously COVID threw a wrench into those plans - I don’t think folklore and evermore were planned. I don’t even necessarily believe that she had Midnights or TTPD fully formed at this point, but I do think she had some idea of what she wanted to do.
With all of that in mind, let’s get to the speech. If you want to read a transcript of it, you can here.
I’m not going to go through everything, instead I will highlight what I think is relevant. If you think I’ve missed anything, feel free to let me know! When sharing quotes, I will be bolding certain parts for emphasis.
I was going to go chronologically at first, but I want discuss at the top what I think is a big elephant in the room given TK’s response to the shitty comments his teammate made.
Here is what TK said:
“I call him Harry, I might be the only person who calls him Harry,” he said. “That just tells you, I mean, I’ve known him for seven-plus, eight-plus years and I cherish him as a teammate… He’s treated friends and family that I’ve introduced to him with nothing but respect and kindness and that’s how he treats everyone.”
He acknowledged that when it came to what Butker said at the commencement, those were the football kicker’s “views”. Travis also clarified that while he didn’t have the same beliefs as Butker, he wouldn’t scrutinize his friend for his views.
“I can’t say I agree with the majority of it, or just about any of it, outside of just him loving his family or his kids,” he continued. “And I don’t think I should judge him by his views, especially his religious views of how he goes about life. That’s just not who I am.”
And here is what Taylor said about Scooter Braun during her Woman of the Decade speech
I’m fairly certain he knew exactly how I would feel about it though. And let me just say that the definition of the toxic male privilege in our industry is people saying, ‘But he’s always been nice to me,’ when I’m raising valid concerns about artists and their rights to own their music. And of course he’s nice to you. If you’re in this room, you have something he needs.
I don’t expect Taylor to have a response to what TK said - and I don’t even believe she should be held accountable for what he said, a stance I’ve maintained since the MH era. Men need to be held accountable for what they say, not the women in their life - buuuuuuuuuuuuut, with all that in mind, I hope Taylor remembers making this speech because her boy is doing exactly what she called out.
Almost word for word.
I think Taylor would do well to remember what she said when she stood on a stage calling out the people in her life who said that about SB. And I hope she is taking TK to task for his lack of courage.
I don’t think the controversy with TK’s teammate is manufactured to play into Taylor’s narrative, but I do think if Taylor does distance herself from him because of this, I would be OK with that. In fact, in some ways I think she needs to, otherwise she should rightfully get called out for being a hypocrite.
Let’s address the second elephant in the room, Billie Eilish.
If you aren’t caught up, there seems to be some shade coming from Billie/her camp about Taylor. I very much dislike when female artists are pitted against each other (something Taylor has called the media out for in the past) because when say, Kendrick and Drake are “feuding” the language around what is happening is very different when women are having a public disagreement.
That all being said, nothing seems to be coming from Taylor’s camp and from what I’ve seen, the comments Billie made about three hour concerts was taken out of context. I also think Billie’s manager (who liked a twitter thread calling out Taylor for blocking other artists), could be making a point that Billie herself doesn’t believe. Much like the rebuttal for the NYT’s Gaylor piece seemed to come from people in Taylor’s camp, not necessarily from Taylor herself.
Before Taylor discuss Billie in her speech, she names a number of newer female artists in the music industry that she is a fan of and Billie is included on that list
And I see that fire in the newer faces in our music industry whose work I absolutely love. I see it in Lizzo, Rosalia, Tayla Parx, Hayley Kiyoko, King Princess, Camila Cabello, Halsey, Megan Thee Stallion, Princess Nokia, Nina Nesbitt, Sigrid, Normani, H.E.R., Maggie Rogers, Becky G, Dua Lipa, Ella Mai, Billie Eilish. And so many other amazing women who are making music right now.
This is what she had to say about Billie specifically
This speech I’m referring to was on my 25th birthday. I’m about to turn 30 tonight, woo! But my exact quote during the speech was, ‘I really just feel like we need to continue to try to offer something to a younger generation of musicians, because somewhere right now your future Woman of the Year is probably sitting in a piano lesson or in a girls’ choir “and today right now we need to take care of her.’
I’ve since learned that at that exact moment, an 11-year-old girl in California really was taking piano lessons and really was in a girls’ choir. And this year she has been named Woman of the Year at the age of 17. Her name is Billie.
Sure, a lot of things could have happened in the last 5 years, and maybe Taylor and Billie do have “beef”, or, it could be that the music/tabloid industry is trying to create bad blood where none exists.
With those two points out of the way, let me get to the other parts of the speech that caught my attention.
Let’s start with the cringe. Oh, the cringe. I am doing my best to embrace my own cringe because I have a lot of it, but hoo boy, the speech has some very cringey moments. I think her points are valid of course, but I also think she is performing. I think she is still processing what happened to her with the masters sale/failed coming out attempt, but she doesn’t want people to know the pain she was in and potentially what she has planned. So instead, she comes across as over the top.
Some of her posturing reminds me of the meme that Better than Revenge/SN Taylor was/is scary. Specifically I’d see people point to her reaction at around the one minute mark of this video
Which further reminds me of the quote from Taylor’s Time Person of the Year interview
“Ultimately, we can convolute it all we want, or try to overcomplicate it, but there’s only one question." Here, she adopts a booming voice. “Are you not entertained?”
Like, what was the reason for that? lol
Again, these examples seem to point to Taylor performing and/or hiding the true intent of what she’s talking about.
Now, let’s discuss this possible “aha” moment I had
When this decade began I was 20 years old
Which made me think of Daylight
I've been sleeping so long in a 20-year dark night
And now I see daylight, I only see daylight
I wonder if that reference in Daylight isn’t about a timespan, but a reference to Taylor at 20 years old.
That is the age she finished writing Speak Now. Also, the age when I think she decided to stay closeted instead of writing songs about girls, like she wanted.
Daylight already breaks my heart because it was the original name for TS7 and what many people (myself included) believe was her coming out song. She thought when Daylight was released she’d finally be out of the closeting darkness she’d been in since she was 20 years old. And then, she wasn’t.
As a quick side note, there are at least two other references to 20 years in Taylor’s music that I think could be a reference to Taylor deciding to closet at that age
https://preview.redd.it/oynjd0z4ut2d1.png?width=1266&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbcf43e89988784527f7071faef30aa6a05f2340
Moving on to what I think is a prelude to folklore
I saw that people love to explain away a woman’s success in the music industry, and I saw something in me change due to this realization. This was the decade when I became a mirror for my detractors. Whatever they decided I couldn’t do is exactly what I did
This is like the thesis statement for mirrorball. Not only that though, in the following sentence she tells us that if someone tells her she can’t do something (like stopping her multiple times from coming out as an example for no reason whatsoever), she is going to take that as a challenge and do it anyway.
It could also be a reference to a lot of the mirrors/mirror imagery/coming back around vibes that have been all over Midnights, TTPD, recent music videos, and the Eras tour.
This quote I believe is referenced in the Bejeweled mv
At that time I couldn’t understand why this wave of harsh criticism had hit me so hard. I believe a popular headline back then was, ‘A Swift Backlash,’ which is clever, you gotta give it to ’em
Laura Dern as the stepmother in the mv: “He tired of her quite quickly or should I say swiftly?”
Taylor’s response: “There it is. That joke never gets old. Thank you, thank you so much.”
Taylor directly references Speak Now in her speech
So then I decided that I would be the only songwriter on my third album, Speak Now, and that I would tour constantly, work on my vocals every day, and perfect my stamina in a live show. I decided I would be what they said I couldn’t be. I didn’t know then that soon enough people would decide on something else I wasn’t quite doing right, and then the circle would keep going on and on and rolling along and I would keep accommodating, over-correcting, in an effort to appease my critics.
And what prey tell, Taylor, are you referencing here? 👀🌈
This part gave me a chuckle
They’re saying I’m dating too much in my 20s? Okay, I’ll stop, I’ll just be single. For years.
For years you say? When exactly? lol There was about a two year gap between her publicly dating Harry Styles and Calvin Harris, but the way Taylor says it implies something longer than two years. Maybe this was her planting seeds for the public to start questioning her public narrative? 🤷🏻‍♀️
Here’s another head scratcher for me
Now it’s that I’m showing you too many pictures of me with my friends, okay, I can stop doing that too. Now I’m actually a calculated manipulator rather than a smart businesswoman? Okay, I’ll disappear from public view for years. Now I’m being cast a villain to you? Okay, here’s an album called Reputation and there are lots of snakes everywhere.
I find it very interesting she is saying that disappearing from the public eye was a calculated move as opposed to a decision she made with Joe to keep their relationship private. Again, in contradiction to her public narrative - especially post Toe breakup.
She has amazing things to say about Lana del Ray, who we now know she worked with for Midnights.
I’ve watched as one of my favorite artists of this decade, Lana Del Rey, was ruthly criticized…in her early career and then slowly but surely she turned into, in my opinion, the most influential artist in pop. Her vocal stylings, her lyrics, her aesthetics, they’ve been echoed and repurposed in every corner of music, and this year her incredible album is nominated for Album of the Year at the Grammys because she just kept making art. And that example should inspire all of us, that the only way forward is forward motion. That we shouldn’t let obstacles like criticism slow down the creative forces that drive us.
The highlighted line is the opposite of what she says in the Manuscript, which I referenced at the beginning of this post. I think her mindset has changed since she started rerecording her first six albums and since she recorded the new albums she released since this speech. I think Taylor has realized that she can’t move forward without addressing the past and she can’t move on until she’s corrected the past, which I think she is doing now.
This quote certainly hits different now
Lately there’s been a new shift that has affected me personally and that I feel is a potentially harmful force in our industry, and as your resident loud person, I feel the need to bring it up.
Hahahahaha. Sorry, Tay, I love you and I’ve defended you for not being outspoken, but this is objectively funny. And does feed into the narrative that Taylor is only loud on something that affects her.
In the gay way though, that line is 👀🌈
To Taylor’s credit, for this speech, she has no issues calling out, by name, those who she feels have benefitted from the sale of her masers and how they have taken her art from her, art that she had her hand in creating.
For me, this quote foreshadows the use of You Don’t Own Me before the Eras concert starts. The added context of Lesley Gore being a closeted lesbian has always felt very on point as well.
The fact is that private equity is what enabled this man to think, according to his own social media post, that he could buy me. But I’m obviously not going willingly. Yet the most amazing thing was to discover that it would be the women in our industry who would have my back and show me the most vocal support at one of the most difficult times, and I will never, ever forget it. Like, ever.
Taylor wanting to change the music industry is another reason I think she will come out. I know how wronged she feels by it, never mind the stories we’ve heard from other musicians, and even scarier, the stories we never hear.
And those are the stories we need to think about every day as we do our jobs within this industry. The ones where people’s dreams come true and they get to create music and play it for people. The ones where fans feel a connection to music that makes their day easier, makes their night more fun, makes their love feel more sacred, or their heartache feel less isolating. The ones where all of you in this room stand as an example for someone else in the next generation who loves the same thing that we love. Music. And no matter what else enters the conversation, we will always bring it back to music.
Finally let’s get to the last bit of seed planting that i think Taylor did this night.
During her Eras show in Melbourne on February 18th, Taylor announced a change to the acoustic set
I’ve been thinking, I want to be as creative as possible with the acoustic set moving forward. I don’t wanna limit anything and say, ‘Oh, if I’ve played a song before I can’t play it again.’ So from now on, I don’t wanna take any paint colors out of the paint box of colors … I want to be able to play songs more than once if I feel like it, and I wanna be able to make changes to songs
The bolded part makes me 👀🌈 lol
Since Paris N1, she has made a point when discussing the acoustic set to say rules aren’t for her anymore 👀🌈
This is the last line of her Woman of the Decade speech
And as for me, lately I’ve been focusing less on doing what they say I can’t do and more on doing whatever the hell I want.
If that line is foreshadowing, then I think we are all in for one hell of a ride.
Starting with Pride this month and June 13th in particular 🌈🤡
submitted by littlelulumcd to GaylorSwift [link] [comments]

2024.05.26 14:33 sonmanutd Prep for the bull run (pt.3): How much of your net worth to bet on BTC

Prep for the bull run (pt.3): How much of your net worth to bet on BTC
TLDR: This very much depends on the person’s risk tolerance. For a typically risk averse person with gamma = 2.0, and assume a return of BTC to be 20% annually and historical volatility of 77%, one should hold 12% of their allocation in BTC. Under-betting might lead to regret, while over-betting can lead to disastrous crash in happiness should the price reduce. Thus, determining your correct risk tolerance (gamma), is crucial to having a healthy investment life. Take this quiz to determine your risk tolerance, and then use it to look up the allocation table at the end of the article.

Introduction

How much of your net worth should you bet on Bitcoin? Here in cryptocurrency subreddit, we are all firm believers in BTC over the long term. Unsustainable fiscal policy and endless money printing from central banks all around the world have been lasting unabated since 1970, while no attempts at serious reforms are on the horizon. It all points towards the need to keep the fruits of our labors into a decentralized asset that not only is already the hardest to make, but also exponentially getting harder to make over time. And that asset is Bitcoin.
Yet, there has been surprisingly little consensus on how much of our net worth should be invested in Bitcoin. A walk around the subreddit shows all kinds of different numbers: 1%, 5%, 10%, 30% all the way to 100%. Some people suggest a rule of thumb like “only invest money you can afford to lose”, subjecting your allocation to wild swings that would wake you up at night checking Coinbase every minute for price movements.
It turns out, sizing your investment is just as important as deciding what to invest. How should we think about risk and uncertainty? What is the allocation that would allow us to enjoy the returns, while not being bothered by the wild swings of the market? What is the framework that helps us pick the sweet spot between regretting that we don’t invest enough, and regretting that we invest too much? How to truly be happy with our return of crypto assets, knowing that we have decided the best among the “what ifs”?

Why not 100% BTC?

But first, let us ask ourselves a simple question. If we love Bitcoin so much and already believe that Bitcoin will deliver returns superior to all other investments, why don’t all of us invest 100% in BTC? In fact, some people do. To them, Bitcoin is already the last currency, the measuring stick that every single worth of labor and asset should convert to. If you are among this group, this article is not relevant for you.
The reality is that the vast majority of Bitcoin investors do so because they promise high returns relative to the fiat that they use daily for their daily needs. For all its flaws and inflations, the US dollar is still used in everyday life. People still spend 40 hours / week at work, knowing that they will have the same paycheck every 2 weeks for the rest of the year. The price of bananas and bread are stable day after day, even though they keep shrinking 5% every year. This perception of stability and convenience means that imagining wealth as the total amount of fiat remains hard-wired into many people for the time being.
And this means that the wild swing accompanying Bitcoin price is a major psychological baggage to all investors who see their wealth in dollars. A 100% Bitcoin allocation means that on a certain day, they might see a 5% drop or 5% gain in their net worth. They have to maintain their conviction during the long period of 2021 - 2023 where Bitcoin lost 80% from peak value, before finally recovering in late 2023. This can wreak havoc on a person’s psychological well being ranging from constantly being distracted from work to checking their portfolio to unloading their anger and stress to their wives and kids. Worst of all, the person might be emotionally tempted to panic sell at the worst moment, right before the price recovers, triggering a torrent of regrets.
All this points to the fact that we need a mathematical model to help us reason about not just the expected return, but also the potential loss that we incur so that we can size our bets just enough to both maximize return and minimize regrets. This is a kind of decision that gamblers have to think about on a constant basis, so let’s turn to them to see what we can learn!

Thinking like a gambler

How does a gambler size his bet? I’ll bring up this classic example from the book The Missing Billionaires by Victor Haghani and James White. Suppose you have a starting wealth of $1,000. You are allowed to flip a coin that is loaded with a 60% chance of landing heads, and 40% of landing tails. You can make a bet of any fraction of your wealth from 1% to 100%. What is the optimal fraction of the bet that would allow you to reach as high of a payout as possible after 25 bets?
There are two lenses for looking at this problem. One is through the lens of expected value or average outcome. The expected value is defined as the total of the probability of each outcome times the value of each outcome. The full equation is the following:
https://preview.redd.it/b32r4c3ykr2d1.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=6dfe68476998d40723a0a15739f033dcfb6c1657
In which:
  • p: probability of winning the coin toss. 0.60 in this case
  • a: bet size.
  • Wi: is wealth after i bets. W0 would be 1000 in this case.
  • n: Number of coin tosses. 25 in this case.
Bet Size (%) Expected Wealth
5.0 1,282.43
10.0 1,640.61
20.0 2,665.84
50.0 10,834.71
75.0 32,918.95
100.0 95,396.22
From the chart above, it seems that the bet that maximizes the average outcome would be to bet 100% of your money on every bet, yet it should be clear that no sane person in the world would bet like this! You only get your pay out if you win every single bet, and that even if just one bet lands on tail, you risk losing everything!
So perhaps the median outcome would be a better choice here? We are clearly not looking to just maximize the profit, but also maximize the profit gauging the potential loss we can incur when we are unlucky with the coins. Therefore, perhaps we should maximize our money in the event that we are neither lucky or unlucky with the coins?
Using median, 25th percentile and 75th percentile, and now we have a surprisingly complicated picture.
Bet Size (%) 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile Expected Wealth
5.0 1018.93 1244.73 1520.57 1282.43
10.0 975.02 1456.52 2175.78 1640.61
20.0 735.25 1654.32 3722.21 2665.84
38.0 212.39 1052.21 5212.88 6241.76
50.0 47.51 427.63 3848.68 10834.71
75.0 0.09 4.22 206.62 32918.95
100.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 95396.22
The bet size that maximizes the median wealth would be 20% per bet. If you happened to answer 20% when I posed this question to you then congratulations! You truly have the instinct of a gambler, because 20% happens to be the bet size that matches the Kelly Criterion. Kelly Criterion is a strategy that helps gamblers in their game, as well as hedge fund managers and investors world wide in sizing their bets.
But would the optimal bet size for everybody be 20%? Not quite. Looking at the table again, and it would not be surprising to see that some people are uncomfortable with 20%:
  • At 20% bet, the median wealth appears to be very high at $1654.32 (a whopping 65.4% return), but the outcome at 25th percentile represents the ending wealth of $735.25 (a 26.5% loss) that can feel really uncomfortable.
  • For those that are risk-averse, perhaps a 10% bet (also known as half-Kelly) could be better here, as they don’t even lose that much in the 25th percentile case (-2.5%), while still having a decent return of 45.6% at median outcome.
  • For those that are risk-tolerant, they are ambivalent about the game and don’t care much about the median outcome, but look to have a huge payout. Perhaps a 38% bet would be better here! They will most likely regain the same money that they have before, yet their expected value is much bigger at $6241.5 (+524.1% return) and that their 75th percentile outcome is a whopping $5212.88 (+412.9% return), a massive increase from.
Thus, it is clear that we are still missing a second piece of the puzzle. We need to determine our own level of risk tolerance in order to make a bet effectively. For reference, here is the full spectrum of outcome at each bet size from 1% to 100%.
https://preview.redd.it/buxq90v8kr2d1.png?width=1521&format=png&auto=webp&s=32c4a8808bbf083e32ce6400d9e3523e60f0e7aa
100% BTC example
As a fun exercise, assume that we believe in the power law of Bitcoin, dictating that it would return 33% / year over the next 10 years, while the historical volatility of Bitcoin is 77%. This basically converts a 100% BTC portfolio into a bet size of 84% and a coin toss of 70/30. The median outcome of your portfolio after 25 years (similar to 25 coin tosses) would be the following:
Bet Size (%) 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile Expected Wealth
84.0 1.19 (-99.8%) 156.88 (-84.3%) 1804.09 (+80.4%) 1,396,888.00
This is a disastrous bet. The median case makes you lose 84.3% of your starting wealth, while the 25% percentile you have a potential wipe out. On the other hand, at 75th percentile, you only gain 80.4%, which is even less than had you made a safer 10% or 20% bet. I hope this has convinced you that even if you trust BTC completely and are extremely risk-tolerant, there is still such a thing as an overbet! Learning your own risk tolerance to size your bet appropriately is a crucial exercise that will help you tremendously in your investment journey!

The Utility of Wealth: Losing money hurts much more than gaining money

But how do we model different levels of risk-tolerance across different people? For this point, there are some common principles:
  • Gaining money generally means more joy, and losing money generally means more pain
  • The pain of losing money is often bigger than the joy of gaining the same amount.
Combining these two principles, we can see that the level of happiness does not linearly scale with the level of wealth, but is more like a log curve where gaining wealth has a diminishing return of joy, while losing wealth has an increasing reduction of pain. As Daniel Kahnemann succinctly captured it, "The pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining.
If Loss = Gain, then Pain > Joy
Kahnemann quotes captures the essence of expected utility (happiness), but does not help us determine the level of risk tolerance. The phrase “twice as powerful” does not apply to everyone. What if it is 3 times or 4 times as powerful for risk averse people, while only 1.5 as powerful for risk-tolerant people? For this, we need another variable to determine the level of risk tolerance. Here is the complete formula of the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA), which represents the amount of utility given wealth relative to the base level
https://preview.redd.it/neb9ib34lr2d1.png?width=334&format=png&auto=webp&s=bae758d70afde07e38f1f3c60b2c474dbd199a4b
In which:
  • W represents wealth relative to the base level.
  • γ (gamma) is the coefficient of relative risk aversion.
When γ = 1, we have
https://preview.redd.it/t7xmpb68lr2d1.png?width=367&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa0ba76930db0d8684e8e9359de728a7bb880ff9
Let’s visualize our utility functions with different values of gamma
https://preview.redd.it/q8bnbiejlr2d1.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=d313de359d0a7db26bf185aaf9d86793f31cfa18
We can see that:
  • γ = 0 represents someone who is completely risk-neutral. For someone like this, they don’t care about the risk and simply want to maximize expected value as much as possible. For this person, the optimal strategy for a 60/40 coin would be to bet 100% all the time. We now know that no sane person would actually have a gamma = 0.
  • γ = 1 represents a typical Kelly better, where doubling your money would feel the same joy as the pain they feel from losing half of it. If you have gamma = 2.0, you would have roughly the same risk tolerance as a normal person, characterized by the fact that doubling the money and losing half the money are symmetrical. This person would be ambivalent about two choices between keeping all their current wealth or to either double or half their wealth at equal chance.
  • γ = 2 according to White and Haghani, often represents a typical person. For this person, losing half the money would generate twice more pain than doubling the money. (Did this remind you of the saying "The pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining" by Kahnemann?)
  • γ = 3 represents someone that is much more risk averse than normal. For this person losing half the money would generate 4 times more pain than doubling the money.
Now that we have a formula for deciding our risk tolerance, let’s instead optimize for expected utility instead of expected wealth. Simply replace W (wealth) with U(W) (utility of wealth), and we have the following formula
https://preview.redd.it/5hmr4dlqlr2d1.png?width=1174&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c2c97d6d9857be4c2e82ca1f6e90557547edd01
Now, let’s visualize the different levels of utility at different bet size to figure out what is the optimal bet size given different risk tolerance.
Expected utility given different γ and bet size
Look at this stuff, isn’t it neat? This neatly explains why some people might prefer betting 10%, while others might feel more comfortable with 38%. That is because this level of bet truly optimizes their internal level of happiness based on their own risk tolerance!
We now have a way to determine the optimal allocation based on the the odds and our own gamma. Or more broadly, given an expected risk, expected return and a personal level of tolerance, we have a framework to determine the size of the bet that would maximize our happiness!
A few final notes:
  • The level of happiness is very personal and not comparable. We wouldn’t want to say that a risk-taking person is generally more happy than a risk-averse person (though perhaps there is some truth to it?). The CRRA framework helps us determine the optimal bet size for happiness, but it doesn’t tell us how risk-averse we should be.
  • Notice that around the optimal point, the expected utility remains largely flat, meaning that you can deviate from the optimal bet size by a little bit and mostly gets near optimal expected utility. But if you get it very wrong, the consequence could be very drastic!
  • The lower your risk-tolerance, the more sensitive you are to changes in happiness relative to bet size. Therefore, be very careful and precise about your allocation if you are a risk averse person!
Notice that the level of happiness can be drastically different based on your risk tolerance. A bet of 20% that feels very comfortable for a person with gamma = 1 will feel extremely uncomfortable for someone with gamma = 3. Bitcoin is for everyone, but not of all sizes. Knowing your own gamma is crucial in determining that bet size that is right for you.
100% BTC example
Back to the person who bets 100% on BTC, which is again equivalent to a 84% bet on a 70/30 coin. This is the expected level of happiness of that person.
Gamma 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0
84.0 -9.68e-01 -9.18e+00 -1.90e+11 -4.64e+29
It is all negative! Even for someone that is unusually risk tolerant like gamma = 0.5, the bet is still a significant overbet compared to their risk tolerance.
You might have noticed that the expected utility framework will produce very negative numbers when the ending wealth is nearing 0. This is a fair criticism of the expected utility framework, especially in the case of near total loss (Is a person who lost 99.9% of their wealth that much more unhappy than someone with 99%?). But given there have been cases of life-threatening circumstances due to near total loss of wealth, we can all agree that sizing our investment based on our risk tolerance to avoid getting near that level of loss is something that we should treat seriously.

Finding your inner gamma

Okay, if you have read until this point and are convinced that determining risk tolerance is important, let’s find our own gamma. Now, the issue with the CRRA framework is that the utility value appears kind of abstract. What does an increase of 0.50 utility actually mean to us? And how does it help us determine our gamma?
Fortunately for us, we can frame our question in a different way to decide our gamma value. Notice that for someone with gamma = 1, their expected utility would be 0 if they bet around 40%, meaning that if they face the problem of picking a bet size for tossing a 60/40 coin 25 times, they are basically ambivalent between not participating in the game at all, and participate the game at bet size of 40%. This number is 20.60% and 13.33% for gamma = 2 and gamma = 3. Thus, we can ask the following questions:
Given that you have $1000 and are invited to place bet on a 60/40 coin 25 times, how much money would make you ambivalent between playing and not playing the game?
But even that is a little bit abstract! Let me place it in a few more realistic scenarios! Assuming that you currently have $100,000 net worth. Please take a moment to answer the following questions honestly and truthfully.
Question 1
You have a choice between a certain amount or a 1% chance to win $100,000 and a 99% chance to win $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
  • a) $830
  • b) $695
  • c) $500
  • d) $375
Question 2
You have a choice between paying a certain amount for insurance or having a 1% chance of losing $50,000 and a 99% chance of losing $0. What amount would make you ambivalent between paying the premium and not paying it?
  • a) $585
  • b) $690
  • c) $990
  • d) $1,450
Question 3
You have a choice between getting paid a guaranteed amount, or performing a coin toss in which there is a 50% chance to win $50,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000. What amount would make you ambivalent between the two options?
  • a) $18,000
  • b) $16,000
  • c) $12,500
  • d) $9,100
Question 4
You are forced to play a game where there is a 50% chance to win $10,000 and a 50% chance to lose $10,000, unless you pay a fee. What amount of fee would make you ambivalent between paying the fee and playing the game?
  • a) $250
  • b) $500
  • c) $1,000
  • d) $1,490
This quiz will work better if you actually put in your real net worth and the answer scales respectively with your net worth. I have prepared a notebook that allows you to type in your net worth and automatically scales up all answers here. Take some time on the quiz to find your true risk tolerance! Feel free to pick a number that is in between as well!
The answer a, b, c, d will match up with γ = 0.5, γ = 1, γ = 2 and γ = 3 respectively.

Putting everything together

Okay. Now that I know my own gamma, how much of my money should I put in BTC? Remember that the optimal bet size also depends on the odds too! For a gamma = 1, if the coin is 60/40, then you should bet 20%. If the coin is 70/30, then you should bet 40%. If the coin is 100/0, then you should clearly bet everything!
Thus, one way we can think about the sizing of BTC is to convert its expected return into a coin toss. I think it would be safe to assume a conservative case that BTC has the same amount of volatility that it has previously, which is 77%. Now, depending on how much you believe in BTC, you will have a different notion of expected return. If you believe in the Power Law, then the next 10 years would bring approximately 33% return per annum. I personally used a more conservative 20% annual return for my calculation.
From that point, subtract the return by about 4% (to cancel out the risk-free return of treasury bills), you can use the expected return and volatility to back calculate the coin toss odds and the equivalent bet size. I’ll spare you the math on this one and simply show you the different odd and bet size, given the different levels of expected return as the following. Feel free to visit this public notebook to input your own expected return and volatility and have your calculation of the coin toss.
Expected return Adjusted expected return (in excess of treasury bonds) Coin toss probability Bet size equivalent to 100% BTC allocation
10% 6% 53.88% 77.23%
15% 11% 57.07% 77.78%
20% 16% 60.17% 78.64%
25% 21% 63.16% 79.81%
33% 29% 67.62% 82.28%
40% 36% 71.18% 85.00%
50% 46% 75.64% 89.69%
Now that you have the coin toss odd, you can use our expected utility framework to calculate the optimal bet size, and then scale it with the bet size of 100% BTC allocation equivalent.
Expected return Adjusted expected return (in excess of treasury bonds) Optimal allocation (γ = 0.5) Optimal allocation (γ = 1) Optimal allocation (γ = 2 - typical person) Optimal allocation (γ = 3)
10% 6% 15.60% 7.80% 3.90% 2.34%
15% 11% 27.50% 14.14% 7.07% 4.71%
20% 16% 38.93% 20.65% 10.33% 7.15%
25% 21% 49.18% 26.60% 13.71% 8.87%
33% 29% 62.33% 34.91% 18.28% 12.47%
40% 36% 72.12% 42.07% 22.32% 14.60%
50% 46% 81.54% 51.64% 27.18% 19.03%
And that's it! You are done! Congratulations for making it this far🎉. How does it look to you? Was it lower or higher than what you expected?

This is just the beginning

If you make it this far, I hope you are convinced to take the sizing decision seriously. Expected Utility is truly a powerful framework to help you make sizing decisions not just in bitcoin, but also in so many other aspects of life stocks, bonds, mortgages, exiting the IPO, etc.
And this is just the beginning. How should our BTC be if we now have an additional asset class like stock on the table? What about other cryptos? How much should I keep and how much should I exit if my coins are already 10x? These are all crucial questions that we will have to leave to future additions of the series.
What was your gamma and your optimal allocation? Was it lower or higher than what you expected? Did you feel overexposed or underexposed in your current allocation of BTC? Let me know in the comments below.
submitted by sonmanutd to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

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