Autobuses omnibus en dallas

Après un « money time » étouffant, le Thunder égalise et reprend la main !

2024.05.14 09:04 romain34230 Après un « money time » étouffant, le Thunder égalise et reprend la main !

NBA – Les 34 points de Shai Gilgeous-Alexander et une défense irréprochable en deuxième mi-temps ont permis au Thunder de l’emporter in extremis à Dallas après avoir compté 14 points... Lire la suite »
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2024.05.14 04:20 PapiKevinho Cambios de ETN

Hola compadres. Les quiero preguntar si es posible cambiar los boletos de ETN en línea o tengo que ir a la estación de autobuses .
Mi autobús sale de san Miguel de Allende a México norte pero tuvimos que cambiar nuestros planes y ahora queremos salir desde Guanajuato a México norte( no hay cambio de fecha ). Español no es mi primer idioma entonces no entendí muy bien como funciona todo eso.
Gracias

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2024.05.14 02:01 NightBard Discussion: S18E09 Challenge #5: Brand Challenge

Discuss the " Challenge #4: Brand Challenge " episode of So You Think You Can Dance Season 18!
Description: The dancers take on a brand-themed dance challenge choreographed by Hi-Hat and dancer Whitney Carson.

Contestants:

Female Contestants:

~~Avery Gay (19) Scottsdale, AZ - Neo Classical~~ ^{(Eliminated Week 1})
Dakayla Wilson (18) Tampa, FL - Contemporary Jazz
Madison Rouge Alvarado (21) Las Vegas, NV / Chicago, IL - Jazz Funk
~~Mariyah Hawkins (21) Dallas, TX - Contemporary~~ ^{(Eliminated Week 3})
~~Olivia Alboher (22) Totowa, NJ - Contemporary Ballet~~ ^{(Eliminated Week 1})

Male Contestants:

Anthony Curley (18) Phoenix, AZ - Contemporary
~~Braylon Browner (18) Kileen, TX - Contemporary~~ (^{Eliminated Week 2})
Easton Magliarditi (19) - Las Vegas, NV - Contemporary
~~Jaylin Sanders (20) Los Angeles, CA / Nashville, TN - Hip-Hop~~ (^{Eliminated Week 3})
~~Roman Nevinchanyi (26) Kiev, Ukraine - Ballroom~~ (^{Eliminated Week 2})

Standings: (After Competition Week 4)

(On the reddit app, touch and slide the chart below to see all weeks)

Position	Dancer	4/15 (S18E05)	4/22 (S18E06)	4/29 (S18E07)	5/06 (S18E08)	5/13 (S18E09)	5/20 (S18E10)
	Anthony	Safe	Bottom 4	Safe	Bottom 3
	Dakayla	Safe	Bottom 4	Bottom 3	Safe
	Easton	Bottom 4	Safe	Safe	Bottom 3
	Madison	Safe	Safe	Safe	Safe
5	Mariyah	Safe	Safe	Bottom 3	Elim	--------	--------
6	Jaylin	Safe	Safe	Elim	--------	--------	--------
7 & 8	Braylon	Bottom 4	Elim	--------	--------	--------	--------
7 & 8	Roman	Safe	Elim	--------	--------	--------	--------
9 & 10	Avery	Elim	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------
9 & 10	Olivia	Elim	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------

Note: Current guides are listing 10 episodes this season and the wiki currently confirms May 20th as the finale for the season.

Judges:

Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Allison Holker
JoJo Siwa

Social Media Links:

* Note: A couple contestants showed different locations for where they are from so I opted to list both. Also, while it's more normal to sort by last name, I thought it would be more visually pleasing to see the contestants organized by first name.

submitted by NightBard to sytycd [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 21:30 AutoModerator TSUKIMICHI -Moonlit Fantasy- (Season 2) - Episode 17 - Dub Available Now on Crunchyroll!

TSUKIMICHI -Moonlit Fantasy- (Season 2)

Episode 17

Dub Available Now on Crunchyroll!
-----
Cast:

Makoto voiced by Dallas Reid
Tomoe voiced by Monica Rial
Mio voiced by Kara Edwards
Lana voiced by Kayla Parker
Eto voiced by Kiba Walker
Shiki voiced by Ben Balmaceda
Agares voiced by Dylan Mobley
Akina voiced by Kristen McGuire
Aqua voiced by Natalie Van Sistine
Emma voiced by Tia Ballard
Eris voiced by Sarah Wiedenheft
Liddy voiced by Brad Hawkins
Lime voiced by Aaron Campbell
Mondo voiced by Jarrod Greene
Additional Voices: Nicholas Markgraf, Eric Wheeldon, Justin Green, Sean Letourneau

Crew

Voice Director: Jerry Jewell
Producer: Susie Nixon
Adaptation: Heather Walker
Mixer: Andrew Tipps
Engineer: Manual Aragon

submitted by AutoModerator to Animedubs [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 21:16 joeymouse New digital display layout is active at Union.

The number of coaches column is already confusing people. Platform is in the far right.

submitted by joeymouse to gotransit [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 11:13 Ok_Value_1593 Nicole recommending Hillsong (TW: SEXUAL ASSAULT & RAPE ⚠️)

Nicole has recommended Hillsong to her viewers and has heavily praised it. https://youtu.be/455SaO0lRnA?si=e2osk4YmvMFx_hlN (20:11-20:54 ; She recommends it at 20:50)
I just want to let everyone know what type of controversies Hillsong are involved with before you go to one and also to help anyone realize what kind of organization Nicole affiliates herself with. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsong\_Church)
TW: SEXUAL ASSAULT & RAPE ⚠️

Church's founder opposes abortion
In 2006, Hillsong were stripped of A$414,000 from the grant on the grounds they had faked the Indigenous endorsement that was required to obtain it. Hillsong were also accused of offering the RACA A$280,000 in order to silence their complaints regarding the matter
Pushes for a charity commission in Australia have stemmed from claims that religious organisations like Hillsong avoid taxes by paying their staff in tax-exempt fringe benefits
Frank Houston, the father of Hillsong Church founder Brian Houston, was a pastor in New Zealand and Australia who sexually abused boys over the course of his ministry
Although Brian Houston, then national president of the Assemblies of God denomination in Australia, was legally obligated to report the crime, he allegedly did not do so. Brian Houston stated that he felt it reasonable not to report the crime when it came to light at the time that the victim was an adult, and when the victim did not want the crime reported (an assertion that was denied by the victim)
Victim testified that that Frank Houston offered him AU$10,000 as compensation at a McDonald's
On 5 August 2021, NSW Police issued a warrant for Brian Houston to attend the Downing Centre Local Court in Sydney on 5 October, alleging that Houston concealed child sexual abuse by his late father, Frank. Houston was in the United States at the time of being charged. He has denied the charges and his lawyer stated he intends to plead not guilty. In January 2022, Houston resigned his chairmanship of the Hillsong board, as court proceedings were likely to be protracted.
It considers homosexual practice sinful, and does not allow homosexuals to assume leadership roles. It issued a statement in February 2019 stating that it was inclusive; however, Houston had formerly said that Hillsong would accept those who did not follow a "homosexual lifestyle"
Hillsong has been criticised for its involvement with Mercy Ministries, an evangelical charity with an anti-abortion view and a conservative perspective on homosexuality
Hillsong's attitude towards criticism was portrayed negatively by former member Tanya Levin in her book People in Glass Houses: An Insider's Story of a Life In and Out of Hillsong. Specific criticisms covered authoritarian church governance, lack of financial accountability, resistance to free thought, strict fundamentalist teachings and lack of compassion.
Many former church members have accused the church of exploiting volunteers, due to overwork, lack of recognition and interference in privacy
On 20 August 2008, Michael Guglielmucci, a then pastor of Planetshakers Church, composed "Healer", a song about his experience of cancer. He was invited by Hillsong to add his song to the album This Is Our God. Later, he confessed that he had lied about having cancer.
In 2015, American preacher Mark Driscoll was invited to attend the Hillsong annual conference. When it was revealed that Driscoll had made offensive comments about women, Brian Houston announced that Driscoll would no longer attend the conference. However, a pre-recorded interview with Driscoll was played during the conference.
Around 2017, two Hillsong volunteers who attempted to convey their concerns about Lentz to Hillsong leadership were allegedly intercepted and dismissed
In early 2021, Vanity Fair, the Christian Post and News.com.au reported that a female student at Hillsong Leadership College named Anna Crenshaw had been indecently assaulted by a married Hillsong administrator named Jason Mays, the son of the church's director of human resources. Mays received a 12-month ban from ministry, he was subsequently reinstated to his ministry role and volunteered with singing at worship services. Brian Houston subsequently apologised for his Tweet questioning Crenshaw's version of events
In March 2022, Brian Houston resigned his position as global senior pastor after an internal investigation into his misconduct began. It was reported that in both 2013 and 2019 he had engaged in inappropriate behaviour with women connected to the church.
Hillsong Dallas pastor Reed Bogard resigned in January 2021, two weeks before an internal investigation found that he had been accused of raping a female junior colleague while serving at Hillsong New York City.

TLDR; Hillsong has been criticised by politicians, media, community groups, Christian leaders and former members such as Tanya Levin. Criticisms have included Hillsong's finances, its ties to controversial organisations, its attitudes towards LGBTQ+ people and its treatment of critics as well as scandals involving Brian Houston and other prominent church leaders.
(EVERYTHING WAS TAKEN DIRECTLY FROM WIKIPEDIA)
Thoughts, anyone?

submitted by Ok_Value_1593 to NicoleLaeno_ [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 07:05 IamSofaKingDumb AA80 - Reason for Return?

Listening to live ATC. They declared an emergency and returned. Landing on 18L. Just touched down while posting this…
Anyone know why?

submitted by IamSofaKingDumb to americanairlines [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 05:55 Striking_Caregiver82 Trade advice

I think my roster is in a great spot to win now and in the future. Would like the gauranteed production pittman offers and relatively not that stoked for bowers (who id probably get at the 5 pick) let me know what you guys think

submitted by Striking_Caregiver82 to DynastyFFTradeAdvice [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 04:11 PerfectiveVerbTense Get hyped! Your favorite team got THE steal of the draft.

I felt like every time I turned around, I was reading about how this or that team had landed the "steal" of the draft. So I decided to investigate: does every team think they got THE steal of the draft?
The answer is mostly yet. You'll find that some of these sources are higher quality than others (someone who covers the NFL professionally vs a random youtuber), and the strength of the claim varies as well (lots of "may have gotten" a steal, or specifying that a pick was a steal of a certain — usually late — round). Nevertheless, within the first couple results on Google, I was able to find some claim that almost every team had landed the biggest (or one of the biggest) steals of the 2024 draft.
There was one team for whom my Google-fu could not produce a result here. (Though that search did turn up a bunch of results with Drew Brees calling Mac Jones the steal of his draft, if that makes you feel any better.)
NFC East
Did the Dallas Cowboys quietly get the steal of the 2024 NFL Draft?
New York Giants snagged an absolute steal for their defense according to scouts and NFL Draft experts
NFL Draft Grades: Eagles got “the steal of the draft”
Washington Commanders: Johnny Newton the Steal Of the 2024 NFL Draft?
NFC North
Why Packers' Kalen King may be 'biggest steal of the draft'
Metric Points to Vikings’ 1st-Round Pick as ‘Biggest Steal’ of 2024 Draft
Chicago Bears: Austin Booker Could Be Steal Of 2024 NFL Draft
The Detroit Lions may have just gotten the STEAL of the 2024 NFL Draft...
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons draft the STEAL of 2024 NFL draft BRANDON DORLUS
Panthers steal playmaker everyone forgot to draft and he'll be huge for Bryce Young's development
Robert Griffin III says the Saints got the steal of the draft in Spencer Rattler
Why Bucky Irving could be a steal for the Bucs (This was actually the strongest piece I could find about Tampa.)
NFC West
The steal of the draft may have ended up with Arizona Cardinals
Rams News: Rich Eisen Considers This LA Pick Steal of the Draft
ESPN names this 49ers pick as the top steal of the 4th round
Seahawks Land 1st-Round ‘Steal of the Draft’ With Speedy 300-Pound DT
AFC East
PFF says Buffalo Bills landed one of the biggest steals of the 2024 NFL Draft
Did the Miami Dolphins Get the Steal of the NFL Draft in Mohamed Kamara?
The Jets got the steal of the draft.
The Patriots might have the steal of the draft in WR Javon Baker 😳
AFC North
T.J. Tampa May Be the Steal of the Draft (Ravens)
Bengals fifth-round pick Josh Newton will end up “steal of the Draft,” says Will Blackmon
The Cleveland Browns may have gotten the STEAL OF THE NFL DRAFT in Michael Hall Jr.
Steelers Land One of Best Steals in NFL Draft
AFC South
Houston Texans Somehow Get A Steal In 2nd Round Of The NFL Draft
Colts get an absolute steal with Texas WR Adonai Mitchell
Jaguars may have found a potential draft steal in DE Myles Cole
In the fourth round the Titans got a steal. (This one is a pretty huge stretch.)
AFC West
Why Broncos' Selection of Troy Franklin Was the Biggest Steal of the 2024 NFL Draft
Chiefs Draft Pick Named ‘Biggest Steal’ of 2024 NFL Draft: ‘Doesn’t Seem Fair’
Raiders RB Dylan Laube named draft steal by ESPN
Los Angeles Chargers Land Biggest Draft Steal? Analyst Calls Colson “Most Impactful Player” of 2024 Draft

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2024.05.13 00:33 JustMeInBigD Things to Do May 13-19

As always, if you know of an event that's not listed here, feel free to share it (with a link) in the comments. Feedback on events you've attended or plan to attend is welcome.
*Free (or no admission/cover)
--Recurring Event
Noteworthy: May 13-19 is American Craft Beer Week. May 16 is National Barbecue Day.
Weekend & Multi-Day Events
May 13-19 Dallas is Lit (Literary Festival) at multiple Oak Cliff venues
May 16-19 DSO: Rachmaninoff Rhapsody on a Theme of Paganini at the Meyerson
May 17-18 Dallas Black Dance Theatre Spring Celebration at Wyly Theatre
May 17-19 Wildflower! Music and Arts Festival at Galatyn Park Urban Center, Richardson
May 17-19 Main Street Fest - A Craft Brew Experience at Historic Downtown Grapevine
May 17-25 Now THAT’s What I Call TV Improv 90s Sitcom at Stomping Ground Comedy
May 18-19 Black Heritage Celebration at the Dallas Arboretum
Through May 27 Scarborough Renaissance Festival, Waxahachie
Through May 18 Fannie: The Music and Life of Fannie Lou Hamer at Bishop Arts Theater Ctr
Through May 25 Echo Theatre: Beyond the Yellow Wallpaper at the Bath House Cultural Center
Through Jun 9 Hamilton at Winspear Opera House
May 17-June 1 Teatro Dallas: Cloud Tectonics at the Latino Cultural Center
*May 11- May 24 Women in Art – A Joyful Journey Exhibition at Art on Main
*Through May 19 The Art of Embroidery from India to the World at NorthPark Center
*Through June 28 Central Library Staff Art Exhibit at Dallas Public Library Central Branch
Monday, May 13
Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder: Playoffs Round 2 Game 4 at AAC
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche Watch Party at Shark Club Sports Bar and Grill
Texas Rangers vs. vs. Cleveland Guardians at Globe Life Field, Arlington
British Film Institute Book Club Presents: Mean Streets at Texas Theatre
“Spider Mondays” The Amazing Spider-Man 2 on 35MM at Texas Theatre
Augustana: Something Beautiful Tour with Valley Boy at Club Dada
*Ryan Glenn at Truck Yard Dallas
*Music Bingo at Guitars and Growlers, Richardson
*Songwriter's Open Mic Hosted by Justin Collins at Dan's Silverleaf, Denton
*Poor David’s Pub Virtual Open Mic on Facebook Live
Tuesday, May 14
Texas Rangers vs. vs. Cleveland Guardians at Globe Life Field, Arlington
*10-Year Destination Master Plan Community Town Hall - West/South Dallas at West Dallas Multipurpose Center
Dallas Winds Concert: In This Circle at the Meyerson Symphony Center
*--Free Rooftop Movie: Easy A at Sundown at Granada
The Variety Show with The Lost Boy Presents at Arts Mission Oak Cliff
Jimmy Gnecco of Ours at Opening Bell Coffee
Qveen Herby at House of Blues
*Book Presentation: An Evening with Andrés Neuman at The Wild Detectives
*Book Signing and Discussion - Jannese Torres: Financially Lit at Interabang Books
*--W.O.W. (Words Over Wine) Poetry Open Mic at Chocolate Secrets
*Just Dance Series - Salsa Lessons at Harwood Park
*Indian Cultural Heritage Foundation Dance performance at Pleasant Grove Branch Library
Wednesday, May 15
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche: Round 2 Game 5 At American Airlines Center
Texas Rangers vs. vs. Cleveland Guardians at Globe Life Field, Arlington
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky at College Park Center, Arlington
10-Year Destination Master Plan Community Town Hall - North Dallas at Prism Center
Dallas Architecture Forum Presents: Brian MacKay-Lyons at Dallas Museum of Art
*--Salsa Night/Beginner’s Lessons at Vidorra Dallas
Transformers: 40th Anniversary Event at Texas Theatre
*Nerd Night: Old School Video Games at Celestial Beerworks
*Pat Peterson at The Kitchen Cafe
Swingin' at the Sons at Sons of Hermann Hall
Piano Men: An Elton John & Billy Joel Tribute at Sky Blu Rooftop
Daniel Sloss: Can't at The Majestic
*--Improv Jam at Dallas Comedy Club
Part One Tribe - A $7.77 Show at Deep Ellum Art Co.
3-course Beer Pairing Dinner at Windmills, The Colony
Thursday, May 16
10-Year Destination Master Plan Community Town Hall - East Dallas at Harry Stone Rec Center
Dallas Zoo After Dark Wild Canvas at the Dallas Zoo
*Bombshell Dance Project Performance at Dallas Museum of Art
*Kaleta Doolin in Conversation on Feminist Art History at Dallas Museum of Art
Maifest at the Brewery at Community Beer Co.
Analog Art Show at Flea the Scene
Sip & Paint at Aloft Dallas Downtown
Murder Mystery 3-Course Dinner at Bourbon and Banter
*PNC Patio Sessions - Pretty Boy Aaron at Sammons Park
*Books Signing and Discussion - Noah Gittel, Baseball: The Movie at Interabang Books
The Rhinestone Teardrops Tour at Three Links
Michelle Wolf: It's Great to Be Here at House of Blues
David Slater and Veronica Williams at Sammons Center for the Arts
*Adult Coloring at Mountain Creek Branch Library
HipHop & Healing at Highland Hills Branch Library
Master Gardeners: Taking the Mystery Out of Plant Propagation at Lakewood Branch Library
59th Academy of Country Music Awards at Ford Center at The Star, Frisco
Friday, May 17
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field
*‘til Midnight at the Nasher Sculpture Center
*--DJ Binosaur at Vector Brewing
Backyard Concert: Meridian Brothers and Elkin Pautt at The Wild Detectives
*Booker T. Washington HSPVA Singer-Songwriters at Opening Bell Coffee
Cinéwilde Presents: The Matrix at Texas Theatre
Larry g(ee) EP Release with Dezi 5 and Cozy Campos at The Kessler
Girls' Night Out Stand-up Comedy Showcase at Dallas Comedy Club
Nimesh Patel: Fast and Loose Tour at the Majestic Theatre
The Reverent Few / Joe Blow / The Brandon Callies Band at The Double Wide
Chap Stick (Cheap Trick Tribute) at Sundown at Granada
*Trey Gonzalez at The Rustic
Dallas Poetry Slam 30th Anniversary Showcase at Oak Cliff Assembly
Aaron Aryanpur Live at the Oak Cliff Cultural Center
Saturday, May 18
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky at College Park Center, Arlington
Ultimate Frisbee Dallas Legion vs. Houston HAVOC at Jesuit Dallas
*Cycling: Group Ride at Community Beer Co.
Morning Bird Walk at Trinity River Audubon Center
*AAPI Heritage & Dragon Boat Festival at the Bath House Cultural Center
Art Talk: Laure de Margerie at the Nasher Sculpture Center
Discover Downtown Dallas Movie Series: Sweet Home Alabama at Harwood Park
9th Anniversary Brewery Fest at Texas Ale Project
*Pawty on the Patio with Golden Retriever Rescue at On Rotation
*Asian Am., Native Hawaiian, & Pacific Islander Heritage Celebration at AT&T Discovery District
*AAPI Family Weekend at Sammons Park (Dallas Arts District)
Hope Starts Here 5K at Klyde Warren Park
Deep Ellum Wine Walk: Rosé Olé at Discover Deep Ellum
*Conversation and Party: Colombe Schneck and Merrit Tierce at The Wild Detectives
*Art Exhibitions Opening Event at Ro2 Art
*Analog Art Show at Flea the Scene
6th Annual Adult Science Fair at Celestial Beerworks
Andrea Gonzalez Caballero Spanish Guitar Concert at Kalita Humphreys Theater
Pepe Aguilar at American Airlines Center
Sunday, May 19
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field
Dallas Jackals vs. Seattle Seawolves at Choctaw Stadium, Arlington
State Fair Records: Songwriters Round on The Green at The Kessler
*En Plein Air Painting Demonstration at the Dallas Museum of Art
Dilbeck Architecture Conservancy Homes Tour at University Park
K Pop Music Bingo Brunch at the Sweet Tooth Hotel
Abducted By The 80's at House of Blues
Paint and Sip at Peticolas Brewing
Turtle Creek Chorale: Pages at Northaven United Methodist Church
*Cars for CASA Car Show at Rockwall Courthouse, Rockwall

submitted by JustMeInBigD to Dallas [link] [comments]

2024.05.13 00:24 adriancha Mi Madre me Hecho de Casa hace 2 Años por su Novio Historias de Reddit #reddit

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Anuel AA
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Oficial)
Añadir a la cola
ASÍ CONOCÍ A LUZGAMING EN PERSONA Sentimental
KreckGamer
BaityBait
Billie Eilish
Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? (Official Music Video)
Carin León - Deja De Chingarme [Official Video]
Carin Leon oficial
CASI ARRUINO LA VELADA DEL AÑO 3
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2024.05.12 22:33 enieto87 Dicen...

Pero el VPN de México funciona bien con la IP dinamica... hay un servicio gratis que contrate.
Dinamic-dns.net esta re bueno...
Ya el de duckdns que es gratis... igual por cuestiones desconocidas desaparecio...
Ahí puedes routear el trafico de el VPS actual al de ahí... porque pro alguna cuestión el Puerto 53/UDP no funciona en VMWare... una cuestión de ellos... que a mi no me molesta... ni estoy ahí...
Como endosarle tu integridad psicologica a el padre del error... eso jamas...
Se ve que no me conoces...
Me voy con un USB a Japon... eso era lo de menos recuperar mis archivos...
En Alemania dijeron... todo el año va a ser hasta Navidad... para que te vayas imaginando el tamaño de animal...
Estos quieren ellos bajar...
Que que... que después de que aquí no sale Carlos Slim... que voy a bajar que... están pendejos...
Se le cambia el sistema operativo... se sigue igual...
De Dallas a "Cualquier lugar virtual" que coincidentemente es México...
Le voy a entregar a los judios de aquí...
Si yo no soy el dueño de Telmex...
Ni de mi casa imagínense... el show de la iconografia de la casa naranja de los iPhone y el libro de Heinrich Koch...
Tu estas casadas con otro hombre...

submitted by enieto87 to LasAventurasDeEnrique [link] [comments]

2024.05.12 22:26 MPG_DJMPG_0001 TERMINAL DE AUTOBUSES EN CONSTRUCCIÓN A ESCALA

submitted by MPG_DJMPG_0001 to autobuseshechos [link] [comments]

2024.05.12 21:40 JefforyMeyer Streak 5: Pregunta de DELE B1 🇪🇸

Pregunta: A través de la pagina web Intercambiodecasa.com usted ha contactado con una persona en España para Intercambiarse la casa el próximo verano
Lea el correo electrónico que le ha mandado la persona con la que va a intercambiar su casa: ---------------------------------
Querido amigo:
Estoy muy contento de que hayamos decidido intercambiar nuestras casas. Como no queda mucho tiempo, te pido por favor que me mandes información sobre algunas cuestiones que se me han ido ocurriendo. Ya conozco la casa por las fotos, pero me gustaría saber algo sobre el barrio. También necesito saber dónde puedo aparcar el coche y qué tipo de transporte público hay para ir al centro. Finalmente, me gustaría que me dieras algunos consejos sobre lo que debo o no debo hacer en la casa. Espero tu información.
Un saludo, Ramón ---------------------------------
Escríbale un correo electrónico a Ramón para responder a sus preguntas. En él deberá:
- saludarlo;
- responderle a todas las preguntas concretas que le hace;
- darle algunos consejos sobre lo que Ramón debe o no debe hacer en su casa;
- despedirse

Respuesta:
Querido Ramon:
Yo también estoy muy contento que podamos hacerlo y estaré feliz de responder a todas tus preguntas. Mi barrio se llama "El Verde" porque tiene muchos parques y hay mucha naturaleza. Los habitantes aquí son muy simpáticos y amables. Y en caso de algún problema, puedes contactar mis vecinos, Sr. y Sra. Martín. Son increíbles. En cuanto al aparcamiento, hay espacio para 3 coches en mi casa. Además, los días en los que no tendrás ganas de conducir, puedes utilizar el transporte público. Tenemos los autobuses, el metro y los tranvías. Dado que mi casa es un poquito lejano del centro, será lógico usar el transporte público. Y para responder a tu última pregunta, hay que dar comida a mi gato, Sr. Gatito, limpiar su caja de arenas, y regar las plantas en el balcon. Y por la noche, no pones música al alto volumen después de las 10 porque no es autorizado en mi barrio. ¡Y eso es!
No puedo esperar este intercambio contigo. Saluda a tu familia de mi parte.
Un abrazo
Jeff

submitted by JefforyMeyer to WriteStreakES [link] [comments]

2024.05.12 20:03 Efficient-Forever341 In memory of... (Do You remember who died on May 13, 2014 in Chicago Fire?)

In memory of Leslie Shay
10 years ago, on May 13, 2014, Leslie Shay (played by Lauren German), the fan-favorite character of the NBC studio's series Chicago Fire, died in the finale of the second season. True, viewers only learned about this when the third season started. The death of the character was followed by an uproar from the audience, the popularity of the series (which had been on the rise until then) and the number of viewers decreased, because many people stopped watching the series due to Shay's death, including the author of this post (I reached the end of the third season). Due to the anniversary, I started researching on the Internet to better understand why Shay's character was destined for this fate, and using quite a few references and also abundant with spoilers, I will share with everyone what I came up with in this post. I will also write my own opinion.
(I apologize for any grammatical errors, I did not write the post in English and I created the English version with the help of Google Translate)
Shay's character probably doesn't need to be introduced to anyone, but if you do, this link nicely summarizes why everyone loved her so much.
https://screenrant.com/chicago-fire-leslie-shay-lauren-german-best-traits-facts-trivia/
When I started researching the topic, I read that despite the fact that Chicago Fire is already in its 13th season, Shay remains one of the most loved and most missed characters to this day. However, later, when I wrote the post, I could not find the source again, if anyone can send a link to this topic, please do so.
It is clear that if the series loses such a popular character, it will have an impact and will shake the viewers. Well, it turns out, more than anything in the show's 13 seasons. I found a lot of sources to prove this:
1)
People's Choice Awards, USA, 2015 / Favorite TV Character We Miss Most
In the above category, Shay made it to the top 5, which no one else did later.
https://www.imdb.com/event/ev0000530/2015/1?ref_=nmawd_ev_1
2)
Most shocking TV deaths of all time
https://tvline.com/lists/shocking-tv-deaths/leslie-shay-chicago-fire/
Shay is also included in the top 100 list above, as well as two other characters from the entire One Chicago franchise, Elias Koteas as Alvin Olinsky and Yuri Sardarov as Otis. Thus, Shay was on a list with the likes of Teri Bauer (24), Lance Sweets (Bones), Bobby Ewing (Dallas) or Ned Stark (GoT)
3)
And this is what ChatGPT answered when it was asked which of the characters in Chicago Fire had the most heartbreaking death (short quote from the answer):
"The most heartbreaking character death was definitely Leslie Shay. Oh, it was gut-wrenching! Shay, played by the incredibly talented Lauren German, was such a beloved and integral member of Firehouse 51....."
https://onechicagocenter.com/2023/07/24/heartbreaking-chicago-fire-death-according-ai-not-otisi/
4)
If I use the Google Search service, the answer to this search will also be Shay:
Question: "chicago fire most heartbreaking death"
Answer: "Leslie Shay died in a fire"
Searching the internet, it became clear to me that it wasn't just Shay's death that shocked viewers, but also the fact that the show's creators made the decision to get rid of Shay's character. This decision raised many questions and problems, which I will go through below. There are a lot of posts and articles on the internet about why Lauren German left the series, but in fact they were all based on a single, otherwise amazingly short interview that was made with Matt Olmstead. I found this at this link:
https://tvline.com/interviews/lauren-german-leaving-chicago-fire-shay-killed-off-549958/
If anyone has seen or read other interviews or other information, please share them.
I read a lot of comments under the link above, and I would like to thank everyone for expressing their opinions there. I read a lot of things in the comments that I didn't even think of at first, but it's good that they brought them to my attention, because I completely agreed with them.

The creators of the series killed off the third female character in 2 seasons, who was also one of the main characters.
Killing a character directly just for the sake of dramatic effect is already quite a boring solution
Olmstead praised Lauren German's talent a lot in the interview, but then why didn't the producers try to keep the actress?
Olmstead stated that there will be no flashbacks involving Shay. But in the first episode there were 4 (from Severide, Dawson and Boden)
The LGBT community also received a slap in the face, as an openly lesbian character was killed off. This is also a solution that has been seen many times and is boring.
Shay and Severide's relationship was one of the prominent aspects of the series, which made it worth watching, in fact, according to many, it was such a novel and well-constructed thread that the creators of the series were praised for this. After Shay's death, without the dynamism of their relationship, the series became boring.
Opinions also suggested that perhaps the goal was to attract the right target audience with Shay's lesbian character, but they no longer wanted to retain this group of viewers, so it was a harsh decision made from a business point of view by the creators
Olmstead defended the decision by saying that they could bring more and more storylines into the series, while without Shay's character, the exact opposite was true.
He also claimed that all the characters were assessed on equal footing when the decision was made. In comparison, they immediately replaced Shay with a new character who looked like her, was not a lesbian like Shay, and was 10 years younger. Because Lauren German was born in 1978, Kara Killmer in 1988. The message of this change was extremely bad in the eyes of the viewers
There was a commenter who suggested that the change was made so that the new character could be romantically involved with one of the male characters, and this actually happened during the third season when Brett and Cruz got together
If the purpose of Shay's death was to show how unpredictable life is, they should have paid much more attention to the details. The first part of the third season is full of mistakes and unrealistic solutions
It is strange that the interview only mentions in a few sentences what Lauren said to the fact that the creators of the series essentially fired her. In connection with this, it occurred to me that something else could have been behind the decision, which was never made public, but of course this is just a hunch.
As far as I know, Lauren German was the only main character in the history of Chicago Fire who did not leave the series by her own decision

There were many other strange things about Shay's death that could be found by searching the internet. I will also go through these in order.
A)
Let's return briefly to the fact that the popularity of the series decreased during the third season. This can be checked here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_(franchise))
Based on this, it can be definitely stated that whoever made this decision, for whatever reason, caused damage to the series.
The data:
First season, ranking 51, number of viewers 7.78M
Second season, ranking 31, number of viewers 9.70M
Third season, ranking 47, number of viewers 9.65M
The first season brought good numbers, and it can be seen from the data that its popularity increased for the next season. However, the ranking of the series dropped almost to the initial level by the third season, and although the number of viewers did not decrease so significantly, the reason for this is probably that, in addition to the viewers who left, there were still those who only joined at that time. Another interesting fact is that the third season is the only one where Dick Wolf is mentioned as showrunner. It is possible that during the third season he wanted to be more involved in the development of the story, and it was his decision to pull something unexpected in the series, so Shay's death is due to him. Here is a show-like interview with the whole team, in which I found it strange that Dick Wolf was given the central place on the stage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2tCrma7t5o&t=2s
It was as if they suggested that he was the most important person. It can be imagined that he always had the final say in making decisions. As a counter-example, I saw an interview with the actors of The Avengers, where one of the directors was present, and the Russo brother remained nicely in the background, since everyone was interested in the actors, Iron Man, and Thor, etc. However, this was not the case in this interview. Obviously, I'm not a behavioral researcher, so I can't draw important conclusions from a single interview.
Of course, it is also easy to imagine that the writing team made an independent decision, but did not count on how much the omission of Shay's character would turn fans away from the series. Thus, Dick Wolf was the savior when he was forced to intervene personally in shaping the story to mitigate the damage. Of course, it is also possible that these events and what I wrote about the video above have absolutely nothing to do with each other.
B)
It's also strange how many storylines with negative outcomes were connected to Shay's character during the first 2 seasons. She was seriously injured several times (the ambulance accident in the first season, the hospital bombing in the second season), and she went through several crises in her personal life. Her first love, Clarice, left her, and months later she broke Shay's heart a second time. Devon tricked and robbed her. When Severide and Shay wanted a baby, she failed to conceive. A patient of her, Daryl, whom she sympathized with, committed suicide in front of her eyes, and Shay also fell into depression after that, while her paramedic partner and friend, Dawson, did not care about Shay's mental breakdown at all. During the two seasons, she was almost hit by a car, almost shot, stabbed with a syringe, which could have been contagious, and there must have been other cases that I left out of the list. Then came the third season, where basically the firefighters who were inside a huge explosion were not hurt at all, while Shay, who was on the ground floor of the building, died in this explosion. On the part of the writers, this amount of negativism was perhaps already excessive and quite unrealistic (like the case of Doctor Romano in ER, who was hit by the helicopter). It's like the creators didn't really like the character, or didn't want to do anything with her other than build viewers' empathy / sympathy for Shay so they could switch it to a dramatic twist when the time was right. But that's the opposite of good storytelling in my view. My opinion is that the reason for Shay's popularity is not to be found in the "grateful" storylines written for her, because we will find it only and exclusively in the fantastic performance of Lauren German
C)
It's very strange that Leslie Shay was a main character in the first 2 seasons, but if you look at the Instagram page of the series (more specifically, the entire One Chicago franchise), you can see that Shay's character received very little attention.
https://www.instagram.com/nbconechicago/
At the time of writing this post, there were 3588 posts on the site. I took the trouble to check if my hunch was right and scrolled through to the posts about the first 3 seasons.
Number of pictures where Shay is clearly visible among many people in a group picture: 15
Number of photos where Shay is with 1-2 other people: 27
Number of photos featuring only Shay: 6
Yes, I didn't write a bad number, among 3588 pictures a total of 6 individual photos were given to one of the main characters of the first 2 seasons of the series, perhaps the most popular character of the series to date. Although Lauren German is a famously reclusive actress, she even has more selfies on her Instagram than that
D)
It's also very strange that in the third season they introduced a storyline that says Shay's death was caused by arson. Unfortunately, the execution of all this was extremely clumsy and illogical for me. It was already revealed during the first 2 seasons that Shay's parents are divorced, they live in two separate cities, and that she has no sisters. You could tell this from the fact that when Severide and Shay talked about who would take care of their baby if something happened to both of them, Dawson's name immediately came up. It's illogical that Shay wouldn't have said her sister. In fact, the whole thread felt more like a readjusting to placate fans who would channel their frustration and anger over Shay's death onto the arsonist in the story - instead of the show's writers.
E)
It occurred to me that maybe Lauren's relationship with her colleagues was not good, and for the sake of peace, the creators got rid of the character. This suggestion is probably the furthest from reality, I have a lot of hits that prove that Lauren maintained a very good relationship with her co-stars even later. Here are some examples of this
Trees R fun
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-rn0w-CTv-0
Shayveride back together
https://twitter.com/TaylorKinneyARG/status/1128137229577216000
S03 E14
https://hu.pinterest.com/pin/2814818493493352/
https://hu.pinterest.com/pin/630785491553579592/
From Lauren's Insta
https://www.instagram.com/p/BlRQVXqgxqP/
https://www.instagram.com/p/BWZMBislmnE/
https://www.instagram.com/p/_50dHgFijd/
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2014/10/15/18477177/chicago-fire-if-anyone-can-saveseveride-it-s-casey
In real life, Kinney is grieving the loss of his costar, too.
"I miss her like crazy," he said about Lauren German. "She was a great scene partner. Great actor. Someone to work with and someone to confide in. It was an honest relationship. We hung out off the stages, too. I didn’t take that too easy.”
F)
It's also interesting that I've been able to find almost nothing online about what Lauren thought about what happened to Leslie Shay's character. What we do know from Matt Olmstead's interview is that she joked that she wasn’t going to miss the Chicago winters (she’s a California girl). Other than that, this is the only reaction from Lauren that can still be found, it's completely professional and polite, and perhaps it's no coincidence that she thanked the fans the most for their support
https://cartermatt.com/133627/chicago-fire-season-3-lauren-german-speaks-shay-premiere-shocke
"Hello beautiful people! I want to say thank you to NBC, Dick Wolf and the entire team for letting me be a part of such an amazing experience. I have to say I've never been around a more gifted, special, heartfelt, funny and loving cast and crew as with the CF gang. The show gave me so many priceless gifts. I'm forever grateful. I mostly want to thank the fans for their support and love on this journey. You all are so beautiful. It was a great honor to portray Shay. I love her: her spirit, her flaws, her honesty. And most of all she brought me the most genuine & meaningful interactions with you all, the fans, & my heart swells with gratitude. Thank you, thank you! So much love to you all.”
F) UPDATE
I just found this article, which for some reason didn't come up amongst the search results for the past few weeks.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2016/1/22/18408021/chicago-fire-alum-lauren-german-having-devilishly-good-time-on-lucifer
In this article, Lauren told a sweet story that I believe happened during the filming of the pilot episode of Lucifer:
Given her time on “Chicago Fire,” guest starring on “Chicago P.D.” and now on “Lucifer,” has German changed the way she reads about or watches crime stories in the news?
“I think so, but mainly I think my experiences have made me have even more respect for first responders than I did before I went to Chicago. Sure, I always respected them and paid attention when I’d see a fire truck going by or hear about the cops getting the bad guy.
“But after the training we went through with the firemen and paramedics in Chicago — plus now having worked with homicide detectives to prepare for ‘Lucifer’ — I can’t tell you how much I respect these guys and women.”
German found herself the butt of a few jokes during the filming of a huge scene in Los Angeles near the Dolby Theatre — the site of the annual Oscars show.
“There were helicopters flying overhead, there was all this commotion, but we also had real firemen there. It wasn’t too long after I left ‘Chicago Fire,’ so they were yelling at me, ‘You went to the dark side!’ They were really kidding me about going from playing a paramedic to playing detective.
“Of course the cops on the scene were yelling just the opposite — telling me, ‘No! You’ve come to the bright side!’ I loved that, because that’s the fun friendly competition between the firemen and police officers. It’s kind of like Army vs. Navy.
“But of course, at the end of the day, everyone’s on the same team. These people are my heroes.”
In addition, she also talked about her previous work here, based on which it can be stated that the rumors that she wanted to quit are completely unfounded (I considered this suggestion so unfounded that I didn't even include it in my post). She also confirmed what was also discussed in point E).
German did admit she misses “the whole Chicago crew I worked with — and the wonderful fans in Chicago too. Everyone in your town is so great.”
The actress said she considers co-star Monica Raymund “my best girlfriend” and also keeps up with fellow “Chicago Fire” castmates Taylor Kinney and Jesse Spencer “quite a bit.”
“In fact just the other day, Monica asked me that after I wrap [the initial 13 episodes of] ‘Lucifer’ to come over [to Chicago] for a few days and hang out with those guys. So I may do that around the end of February.”
If so, it’s likely German and her “Chicago Fire” pals will make a beeline to the Palm restaurant on East Wacker Drive.
“Taylor and Jesse and I lived in the same building [on the New East Side], and we’d go to the Palm like three times a week. It was so cozy there. We even had our own regular little booth!”
End of update
In regards to the oddities above, I can even imagine that Lauren's agent or agents had a hard time agreeing on a possible contract extension, and because of this, the creators preferred to get rid of the character of Shay. If that was the case, we will never know. However, if the decision-making really took place in the way and according to the criteria as stated in the Matt Olmstead interview, then it can be seen in retrospect that this was an extremely bad decision by the studio and that the writing team made a huge mistake
I am slowly coming to the end of my research, but before that I would like to discuss the mistakes that the writers made in the first part of the third season - perhaps these mistakes could indicate that they were very hasty during the implementation, or that they did not think through at all how to put together such an episode well. When an average viewer saw this episode for the first time, the shock was guaranteed by it (believe me, it HITS HARD), in this way the creators achieved their goal, but it was enough later to think about what happened, and the shock was already replaced by completely legitimate indignation of the viewing public.
Regarding the mistakes, for the sake of fairness, I also have to say that I consider 4 things to be extremely outstanding from the first 2 seasons of the series:
1)
The visual implementation of the series was amazingly fantastic, as if you were watching a 45-minute movie, and it still stands today. I don't know if this changed after the third season, but I assume not, since the series is still active today
2)
Atli Örvarsson's music
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ABsDFMJr2E&list=PLXT2pBWM8DxfN4znwe3esSqg4LtBzlQz8
3)
The actors Jesse Spencer, Taylor Kinney, Monica Raymund, Lauren German, Charlie Barnett, David Eigenberg, Eamonn Walker, Joe Minoso, Yuriy Sardarov, Christian Stolte were all fantastic in their roles
4)
The writers did something really brilliant when they built Severide and Shay's relationship. The way these two people moved mountains just out of love as a friend to help the other was simply wonderful. The relationship between the two of them was central to the show, which is why it was so painful and infuriating at the same time that the writers didn't think it was important enough to keep it going after 2 seasons. So I didn't consider the series important enough to continue watching after the third season either, or to start anything else from the One Chicago group.
Mistakes in S03 E01:
Devon's character:

In the last 2 episodes of the second season, it was revealed that Devon might not be as a bad person as we thought. The writers hinted at the possibility that maybe Shay could finally find her happiness with her. Whether Devon had really changed, whether she was telling the truth, was never revealed after Shay's death.

Shay's death:

Why didn't the paramedics wear helmets when they entered a potentially dangerous building? In other episodes, the characters paid attention to this, but here they generously forgot about it
During the first flashback, we saw that they started to treat an injured person. When the explosion occurred and Shay was lying on the ground, the injured person was disappeared.
The firefighter (played by Preston James Hillier) who ran into the building before the explosion also disappeared
In the flashback, we saw that Dawson was thrown backwards by the shock wave of the explosion before the ceiling collapsed. Shay, on the other hand, sat still, unaffected by the shock wave
The firefighting team was in the middle of the explosion, the only injury in comparison was a broken leg. Andy Darden died instantly in the Pilot episode, according to the script, when a house fire started in a similar way.
Shay's CPR was interrupted to take her to the ambulance. At the same time, the one who could have taken care of her was Dawson, who was next to her, and Shay herself, maybe even Mills, who had a broken leg. So why was it important to take Shay to the ambulance, if not because it gave the scene a dramatic, albeit illogical, ending?
Several people (e.g. Cruz, Otis) in the episode did not behave like those who recently lost a friend, and this could not be the fault of the actors, but rather of the script. The situation was similarly strange in the Pilot episode after Darden's death
Shay said that she has a good relationship with her parents, so it's very strange that they didn't apply for Shay's things, but Casey and Severide collected them a month and a half after Shay's death. Not to mention the later invented sister
When Severide looked at a photo of Shay before playing the video, it can be seen that the creators did not bother to take a real photo, but instead used a screenshot from the first season.
It's quite unlikely that Dawson would pick up a diary a month and a half later that still had Shay's signature on it, and the signatures were completely different

Again, in the interest of fairness, Severide's flashbacks, Severide and Shay's video were flawless. Just like the gesture of putting Shay's name on the ambulance door in the middle of the season was a great idea from the writers
Final thoughts:
This is how far I've come in my research. Unfortunately, I didn't find any reassuring answers, only strange things. If there was something else in the background why Shay's character had to die, it will probably never be revealed. If the whole truth was told in the Matt Olmstead interview, then in my opinion the creators of Chicago Fire made the biggest mistake of their lives by firing Lauren and letting the Shayveride friendship vanish. Plus, Leslie Shay's character didn't deserve such fate. Anyway, the first 2 seasons were a fantastic experience for me.
Although Lauren couldn't have known it at the time, she was doing very well, because after being unemployed, she auditioned for the role of Chloe Decker in the series Lucifer. Here she joined the team that involved Tom Ellis, Kevin Alejandro, D.B. Woodside, Lesley-Ann Brandt, Rachael Harris, Scarlett Estevez, and later Aimee Garcia, Tricia Helfer, Tom Welling, Inbar Lavi, Rebecca De Mornay, Dennis Haysbert and Brianna Hildebrand. The rest, as they say, is history. Lucifer was the biggest series of 2021 by racking a whopping 18.3 billion minutes of streaming across the year making the series the most-streamed show not just on Netflix, but among the entire crop of streaming originals. Lucifer was voted the best fantasy series of 2021 also, and Lauren German became very, very worldwide-famous.
https://netflixlife.com/2022/01/26/lucifer-best-netflix-show-2021/
After Lucifer ended, Lauren retired from acting, making her last appearance in November 2023 at an event in Chicago, the Heaven and Hell Convention. Here, of course, she was hilarious again, or to put it stylistically, funny as hell, and she simply proved why she was the actress who played Leslie Shay back then
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um_hcX4FkfM
https://www.instagram.com/p/CzHxlcMqM3
Here are a few links at the end
My favorite fan video commemorating the Shayveride friendship
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjS1LmJgCIo
Others have written their opinions before me on the Leslie Shay topic, e.g. a great post
https://www.thetvaddict.com/2014/09/29/did-chicago-fire-kill-off-the-wrong-characte
A little fun
https://www.tiktok.com/@chicagofires/video/7255400196711107886
Still a little fun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vZOsrSHql0
Thank you for reading through!
PJ
(this post is free to use and redistribute, but please at least credit the source! Thanks)
Do You remember Leslie Shay?
View Poll

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2024.05.12 18:35 Pickle_Cord Need a reliable and affordable server?

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2024.05.12 00:31 Substantial_Item_828 No, It’s Not Joever: How 2024 Polling Is Underestimating Joe Biden

Note: This essay was written about a month ago, for a school project. Some of the numbers and polling averages may be slightly outdated, but the point of the essay still stands.
Introduction
“DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.”
That’s what the front-page headline of the Chicago Tribune said on November 3rd, 1948. It’s also what the polls had all been saying for months: that New York governor Thomas Dewey would defeat incumbent president Harry Truman and become the next president of the United States. And yet, he didn’t. Truman won reelection in a massive upset, defying the polls. Somehow, Truman had gone from trailing Dewey in polls by so much that cartoons like the following were created, to winning the election.
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Truman was a very unpopular president. His campaign was also plagued by third parties threatening to split his votes: Strom Thurmond on the right and Henry Wallace on the left. The way he was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat can’t be described as anything less than amazing.
Historians still debate over it, but the most popular theory is that Truman was able to win many voters who disapproved of him because he successfully painted Republicans as being worse than he was. This strategy was aided by Dewey’s weak campaign. Many voters didn’t like Truman, and when polled, wouldn’t say they would vote for him, but when the time came, they held their nose and pulled the lever for the president. The election was a lesson to not treat polls as gospel.
Today, the nation faces another presidential election. The Democratic candidate is incumbent president Joe Biden. He’s running for reelection despite concerns about his age and rumors he wouldn’t run again due to it. On the Republican side, former president Donald Trump is the nominee. He faced opposition in the primaries, most notably by former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, but beat her and his other opponents without too much trouble. The election is the first presidential rematch since 1956. Several independent/third-party candidates are running too, the most notable being Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr. for short), nephew of JFK. He’s been polling very high for a third-party candidate, getting double digits in many polls.
Biden beat Trump in 2020, but opinion polls have been showing Trump leading Biden, often by large margins. As of April 1st, Trump leads Biden by 1.1% in the national polling average according to racetothewh.com, an election prediction/poll aggregation website. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, so this is a sizable swing right. Trump also leads Biden in all seven swing states. Below is a chart comparing the 2020 presidential election margin and the 2024 polling average in the seven swing states.
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It seems like Biden’s doomed. He needs to win at least some of the swing states to win the election, and right now he isn’t winning any of them. It looks like Trump is on track to becoming the second president ever to win a non-consecutive second term, after Grover Cleveland.
But there’s something else going on.
Biden’s bad polling situation seems simple on the surface. He’s incredibly unpopular, having an approval rating of 39.1% (net -16.3%) according to FiveThirtyEight. His bout of unpopularity seems to have started around the Afghanistan withdrawal, although when asking someone their reason for disliking Biden they’ll probably say something about his age or the economy instead. So, it makes sense that Biden would be polling badly. He’s an unpopular president, and people would rather have Trump.
But it isn’t that simple. Because looking deeper, there are some things that don’t make sense. Crosstabs of polls showing massive realignments not seen since the Civil Rights era. Other indicators of a president in trouble not showing up. Things that when put together, suggest Biden may not be in as much danger as the polls say.
When all the evidence is put together and analyzed, it’s clear that Biden is not doomed, not at all. Biden’s bad polling can be explained by two things. First, bad polling methodology underpolling his supporters. Second, people who are supporting third parties now, but will eventually return to Biden. These two things are both making Biden’s polling look bad, although which one has a stronger effect depends on the poll and the demographic group. Additionally, all the indicators other than the polls, like primary elections and special/off-year elections, don’t show Biden in too much trouble.
Explaining Racial and Age Depolarization
First, context is needed for the rest of this essay to make sense. So, as was said earlier, 2024 polls are showing Biden doing much worse than his 2020 performance. That makes sense – Biden is less popular, so naturally fewer people want to vote for him. The strange part is what demographic groups Biden is slipping with. Instead of a mostly uniform shift, which would be expected, almost all of Biden’s losses seem to come among nonwhite voters – most significantly black and Hispanic voters. He’s also losing ground among young voters (usually defined as voters between the ages of 18 and 29). The Democratic Party traditionally does well with these groups, so this is of course concerning for Biden. Even more strange is that in some polls, Biden is actually making some inroads among the demographics that are historically the base of the Republican Party – those being white voters and seniors. Looking at the aggregation of crosstabs of polls during February, there are many abnormalities.
The aggregation shows Trump making massive gains among black and Hispanic voters (swings of R+28.4 and R+18.5 respectively) but making almost zero gains among white voters (R+0.1, but right under that there are slight blue swings with both college educated and non-college educated whites, likely a product of not all polls recording results for those groups). This is strange, to say the least. White people seem to be perfectly fine with Biden, while nonwhite people suddenly despise him. This phenomenon is called racial depolarization, or racedep for short.
Swings among different age groups are also odd. Trump is improving by 16.1 points among voters aged 18-29 but losing 1.8 points with seniors and 4 points with voters aged 50-64. Young voters are much more liberal than older voters. Every opinion poll and election result suggests this. Unless they’ve suddenly become much more conservative, them supporting Trump over Biden doesn’t make sense. Along with racedep, age depolarization ("agedep") is common in crosstabs of 2024 polls.
Those are not the only depolarizations supposedly going on, as can be seen in the tweet. Urban and suburban voters moving towards Trump while rural voters move towards Biden. Democrats moving towards Trump, Republicans moving towards Biden. Geographical and political polarization have been increasing in recent years, so this suggests a strange reverse of that trend. 2024 probably won’t be a large realignment, it’s more likely something is just wrong with the polls.
Explaining Primaries
Presidential primary season has been going on for a few months, after the Iowa caucus kicked it off in January. While Biden and Trump both won their primaries easily, how strong their performances were in different areas can reveal a lot about how certain groups are feeling about the candidacies of the two – like black, Hispanic, and young voters. But first, protest voting has to be explained.
When an incumbent president is running for reelection, they usually do not face much opposition in the primaries. Typically, only no-name minor candidates are the other people on the ballot besides the president. They do not have a chance at winning, but they do serve as a way for people who are upset with the president to express it. Sometimes, the “Uncommitted” option is also used to protest. Look back to 2012, when Obama was running for reelection. He swept the primaries, but his worst performances were in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, where he got under 60% of the vote.
The four states all had something in common: a lot of the registered Democrats were white conservatives who before 2008 voted Democratic, but switched to McCain because they didn’t like Obama’s dark vision for America. They voted against Obama in the primaries because they didn’t like him and didn’t want him to be the nominee. Those voters would then go on to vote Republican in the general election. The places that swung the hardest against Obama in 2008 were also the places where he did the worst in the 2012 primaries.
2004-2008 swing
2012 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary
2012 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary
2012 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary
2012 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary
Now, those four states were already very red even before 2008, Obama was not going to win them and he did not need to win them. But if a candidate is doing badly in a potentially competitive state’s primary, they should heed the warning – or risk losing. Another good example of protest voting can be found in the 2016 Democratic primary. Hillary Clinton did very poorly in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – losing the first two to Sanders and coming close to losing the last. And where Sanders’s support was strongest was in rural areas – also the areas that swung the most towards Trump in the general election. Trump narrowly flipped all three of those states, winning him the presidency.
2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary
2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
2012-2016 swing
The polls said Clinton would easily win all three states, while the primaries said she would struggle in them – and the primaries were right.
The 2024 Primaries
Presidential primaries can give an idea of where a candidate might underperform in the general election, and 2024 primaries are no exception. If black, Hispanic, and young voters are upset with Biden, like the polls are suggesting, then they will protest vote against him. The first primary that will be examined is the South Carolina primary. South Carolina is 26% black according to the 2020 census, and that number is even higher among Democratic primary voters thanks to the racial polarization of the state – Biden won 90% of black South Carolinians in the 2020 election, while Trump won 73% of white South Carolinians.
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South Carolina was also the first primary state (so Biden did not have momentum from winning contests at that point, nor was he the presumptive nominee), and the primary was open (meaning independents could vote), so the conditions for protest voting were as good as they could possibly be.
But despite all that, Biden got 96% of the vote.
If black people really are upset with Biden, they clearly don’t hate him enough to cast a protest vote against him. And looking at individual counties, there’s not even a correlation between the percent of black people and the percent of opposition vote. Biden got 97% of the vote in Allendale County (73% black, the blackest county in the state) and he got 95% in Pickens County (7% black, the least black county in the state). If anything, Biden did better in counties where there are more black people. And it’s not just South Carolina – in pretty much every state where black people make up a significant percentage of the Democratic electorate, Biden won by huge margins. He got 99% in Mississippi, 95% in Georgia, 90% in Alabama, and 86% in Louisiana. Biden came close to losing a few counties in Louisiana – but not the ones with lots of black people. The counties he did the worst in are heavily white. The same kind of people who gave Obama trouble in the 2012 primaries voted against Biden, too.
Evidently, black people aren’t protest voting against Biden. Young voters will be looked at next, using the Michigan primary. Just like South Carolina, Michigan has open primaries.
There was an organized campaign for the “Uncommitted” option in Michigan to protest Biden’s policy on Gaza and pressure him into calling for a ceasefire. The Uncommitted option did modestly well, getting 13% of the vote, slightly higher than it did twelve years ago when Obama was running for reelection. The Uncommitted campaign achieved their (unambitious) goal of 10,000 votes, getting slightly over 100,000. Biden got 81% of the vote, while Williamson and Phillips took the remaining 6%.
What’s interesting though, is where Uncommitted did the best. Its strongest performance was in Wayne County (which includes Detroit and a few other cities), where it got 17%. Wayne County is home to 140,000 Arab Americans who make up 7.8% of the county’s population, so the strong Uncommitted performance wasn’t surprising. The second strongest county for Uncommitted was Washtenaw County (also 17%), which doesn’t have many Arab Americans. What it does have, however, is the University of Michigan. With over 50,000 students enrolled, it’s one of the largest colleges in the country. Looking at a precinct map of the results for Washtenaw County, Uncommitted did well because UMich students were protest voting against Biden.
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Ann Arbor, the city where UMich is located, had a very high percentage of Uncommitted votes. There’s no doubt about it, college students were voting Uncommitted to protest Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.
Looking at college counties in other primaries, there was generally a trend of the Uncommitted option (or whatever name the state has for it) doing well. In Dane County, Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin), there was lots of protest voting against Biden. “Uninstructed” got 15% in Dane vs 8% statewide.
“None of these names” did well in Douglas County, Kansas (University of Kansas), getting 14.5% of the vote, compared to the statewide average of 10.3%.
And Uncommitted got a sizable 21% in New Haven, Connecticut (Yale University), compared to 11% statewide.
There’s definitely some protest voting against Biden by young voters. But remember the reason most of them are unhappy with Biden in the first place: it’s because of Gaza. Trump is more pro-Israel then Biden, so it makes no sense for them to support him. That’s different from Haley voters, who are ideologically between Biden and Trump. Things may be more complicated than they seem, as will be discussed later, but first here’s the analysis of the third group Biden has been slipping with in polls: Hispanic voters. The Texas primary is a good place to judge how Hispanic voters are feeling about Biden. Texas has open primaries, like Michigan and South Carolina.
Biden did the worst in South and West Texas. One of the places he underperformed the most was the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). He got percentages in the 60s, 50s, and even 40s in many RGV counties, with his worst performance being in Zapata County, where he got a pathetic 40% of the vote.
The RGV is heavily Hispanic, so at first this seems like a validation of the polls showing Trump making massive gains among Hispanic voters – but it isn’t the only place in Texas where Hispanic people live. Biden performed very strongly in El Paso County, an 82% Hispanic county home to the city of the same name.
He also did well in places like Bexar County (San Antonio, 59% Hispanic), Dallas County (Dallas, 40% Hispanic), and Harris County (Houston, 43% Hispanic).
Looking at other states, it seems like Biden’s RGV performance was the exception, not the rule. He got 81% in Imperial County, California (86% Hispanic); and 83% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona (83% Hispanic).
Hispanic voters have been slowly trending towards Republicans over time, so Biden’s performances are even more impressive when that factor is taken into account. According to exit polls, Hispanic voters voted for Obama by 44 points, Clinton by 38 points, and 2020 Biden by 33 points. A lot of the people voting against Biden may be registered as Democrats but didn’t vote for him in 2020.
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Overall, primaries don’t support the polls showing Trump making huge gains among black/Hispanic/young voters. There’s zero evidence black voters are upset with Biden. As for the other two groups, there are some signs of discontent, but not enough to warrant the double-digit swings polls are showing. Biden’s underperformances in college counties/Hispanic counties, when present at all, are usually less than 10 points worse than his statewide performance. And that’s assuming every single person protest voting will go for Trump. If all protest voters really do vote for the other party in the general election, say hello to Biden’s second term, because Nikki Haley regularly gets twice the number of votes in Republican primaries as Biden’s opposition does in Democratic primaries. Even after she dropped out.
Midterms, Off-Years, and Special Elections
At the same time Biden has been doing well in primaries, Democrats have been scoring wins in special/off-year elections. These elections are historically correlated with the popularity of the president, so they conflict with the polls showing Biden down. Look at elections during the last three presidencies to know what happens when a president is unpopular.
While Trump was in office, he was quite the unpopular president, and his party lost many elections because of it. Through 2017-2019, Republicans lost a net 8 governorships, going from 34 to 26; and a net 41 House seats, going from 241 to 200. The only chamber they managed to gain in was the Senate (thanks to a very favorable map and increased polarization causing many Democrats in red states to lose) – but not without losing a special election in Alabama, a deep red state that had voted for Trump over Clinton by almost 28 points.
This pattern continues to back when Obama was in office. From 2009-2011, when he was at the height of his unpopularity due to the state of the economy and Obamacare, Democrats lost big. They went from 28 governorships to just 20, 257 House seats to only 193, and 59 Senate seats to only 53. Like Republicans with Alabama during Trump’s presidency, Democrats managed to lose a Senate special election in a state considered safe for their party – Massachusetts, which had voted for Obama by 26 points in 2008.
And it goes even further back to Bush’s presidency. Backlash over the wars caused Republicans to lose 6 governorships from 2005-2007 (going from 28 seats to 22), 30 House seats (232 down to 202), and 6 Senate seats (55 to 49).
But despite Biden’s unpopularity and bad polling, Democrats have been doing well in elections despite precedent saying they shouldn’t be. The 2022 midterms, which were supposed to be a red wave, were anything but. Democrats flipped a net 2 governorships and 1 Senate seat, and only barely lost the House. The small majority Republicans won has been giving them trouble when trying to govern. Already, one Speaker was ousted and it’s possible a second might be too.
More recently, Democrats won the governorship in Kentucky and almost won it in Mississippi, both very red states. They flipped the Virginia state house and won a supreme court election in Pennsylvania by a large margin. Two months ago, they won a competitive special election for a House seat in New York by a decisive 8-point margin.
Interestingly, the normal pattern of an unpopular president’s party doing poorly manifested early in Biden’s term. After his approval rating crashed during the Afghanistan withdrawal, Democrats went on to lose the governorship (and state house) of Virginia, and almost lost the governorship of New Jersey. Both states voted for Biden by double digits in the 2020 election. Something changed between November 2021 and November 2022 to cause this shift. It might have been the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe V. Wade and allow states to ban abortion. In several special elections right after the decision, Democrats overperformed massively. For example, Republicans won the special election for Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, which voted for Trump by 11 points in 2020, by only a 5-point margin. The election took place just four days after the Dobbs decision.
The Trump-backed candidates nominated in many Senate and governor elections could also be the ones to blame. Thanks to Trump’s endorsement, many extremist candidates won the primaries in key races. They often denied the results of the 2020 presidential election and had other problematic views. Most of them went on to lose the general election, sometimes by huge margins. Below is a table of all the results.
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Whatever the cause, Republicans flopped in 2022 and haven’t recovered since. And it doesn’t seem like Trump will be able to avoid the problems plaguing his party. His handpicked candidates were the ones that did terribly while other Republicans often did well; and the abortion issue isn’t just going away, not to mention Trump’s the one responsible for getting Roe overturned with his SCOTUS appointments.
Of course, there’s a counterargument: that Biden is somehow breaking historical precedent, and he’ll do badly while other Democrats do fine. That seems like a reasonable theory, until the fact that Biden vs Trump and the generic congressional ballot are polling exactly the same is considered. As of April 5th, at least.
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Since work on this essay has started, Biden has experienced a little surge of support in the polls. It could just be noise, but it might be something else.
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Biden has also been polling as well as (or sometimes even better than) hypothetical Democratic candidates for president like VP Kamala Harris, California governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.
It could be argued Biden is only doing better because he has higher name recognition, and Democrats who don’t know the other three candidates are answering undecided. But Michelle Obama being extremely well-known didn’t stop her from trailing Trump by the exact same amount as Biden in a poll.
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Democrats are doing much better in actual elections than in polls, and Biden’s polling the same as other Democrats. It stands to reason that Biden would also do better in an election than in polls.
The Problem with the Polls
While primary and off-year elections suggest Biden isn’t doing badly, they still don’t explain the polls. One theory is that the black/Hispanic/young voters who don’t like Biden aren’t voting in any elections, that’s why Democrats are doing well. Perhaps the biggest proponent of this theory is Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for the NYT.
This theoretical group of low-propensity Trump supporters who love answering polls but don’t vote in any elections sounds dubious, and that’s probably because it doesn’t exist at all. Biden’s bad polling is caused by two main things. The first is bad methodology, but before that is discussed, how polls work must be explained.
Polls work by contacting a certain number of voters, usually around a thousand, and asking them how they plan to vote. The 2024 options are usually Biden/Trump/Undecided/Other. Sometimes Other is changed to real third-party candidates, like RFK Jr. Polls also ask information on the voter, like their race, sex, age, and region. After data is collected, polls are weighted to reflect real demographics. For example, if a poll’s raw data has 40% of respondents living in urban areas while 60% live in rural areas, and the actual percentage of voters is 50% urban and 50% rural, then the responses of the urban voters are weighted higher. If that poll has urban areas voting 60D/40R and rural areas 40D/60R, then the raw data is 48D/52R while the weighted (and final) data is 50D/50R.
This seems like an effective way to avoid bias in polls, and account for lower response rates from certain groups. If rural voters are answering at a higher rate, just give them less weight. If Hispanic voters are answering at a lower rate, give them more weight. The thing is, voters don’t belong to just one group. A person can both live in a rural area and be Hispanic. And while groups (rural voters, Hispanic voters) are weighted, subgroups (rural Hispanic voters) are not.
Say, rural Hispanic voters are more Republican than urban and suburban Hispanic voters. Say, they’re answering polls at higher rates as well. Rural voters will be weighted lower in the poll, but that’s just all rural voters combined. Rural Hispanic voters are not weighted vs other Hispanics. That would lead to Hispanic voters in the poll being more Republican than they are in reality.
A typical poll has around a thousand respondents, and a margin of error of about ±3%. The sample sizes for different groups, however, are much smaller, which means a bigger margin of error. Let’s say Hispanic voters are 10% of the poll’s respondents, or a hundred in total. That’s a margin of error of ±8%, much larger than the ±3% for the poll as a whole. And if rural Hispanic voters are 20% of all Hispanic voters, that’s a margin of error of ±18%! Small inaccuracies in subgroups can cause a ripple effect that makes the whole poll wrong. Let’s do a simulation to show this effect off.

True voting intention among all Hispanic voters is 63% Biden, 37% Trump (D+26).
True voting intention among all non-rural Hispanic voters is 65% Biden, 35% Trump (D+30).
True voting intention among rural Hispanic voters is 55% Biden, 45% Trump (D+10).
100 Hispanic voters answer the poll.
Rural Hispanic voters make up 40% of the poll’s respondents (40 people), they make up 20% of the real Hispanic population. Since subgroups are not weighted, their influence on Hispanic voters in the poll is double what it should be.
Due to the large margin of error of ±13%, rural Hispanic voters who answered the poll said they’d vote 45% Biden, 55% Trump. That’s 22 Trump voters and 18 Biden voters answering the poll. A proportional sample would have 22 Biden voters and 18 Trump voters. That’s just a 4-person difference.
Non-rural Hispanic voters in the poll said they’d vote 65% Biden, 35% Trump (the true number).
The average of Hispanic voters in the poll is 57% Biden, 43% Trump (D+14), a 12% swing from the true numbers.

And all that must happen for this problem to occur regularly is for Trump-voting rural Hispanics to answer polls at a slightly higher rate than Biden-voting rural Hispanics, and rural voters to answer polls at a higher rate than urban voters. And since polls collect responses from people who answer the polls first, the effect can happen easily.
You guessed it, this is happening in real life. And not just with Hispanic voters, but with everyone.
A pattern among 2024 polls is that rural voters are answering at a higher rate than urban/suburban voters. In one NYT/Siena poll (Trump+4), rural voters made up about 35% of the respondents, when they only made up 19% of the 2020 electorate.
In another poll by Grinnell College (Trump+7), rural voters made up 27% of the respondents. Voters who said they lived in a “town” made up 17%, and it’s likely at least some of them would break for rural if they had to choose between urban/suburban/rural.
Looking at the 538 poll database, a clear pattern emerges. Polls that have Trump leading Biden have a proportion of rural voters that is way too high. Polls where Biden leads Trump have more normal numbers.
Rural voters tend to be more conservative and vote Republican, and sure enough, Republicans are answering at a higher rate then Democrats. (scroll to "Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?" for the NYT/Siena poll and the top of page 6 for the Grinnell College poll. Both show more Republicans answering the poll than Democrats.)
One pollster, Susquehanna Polling and Research, remarked that Trump supporters seem to have higher enthusiasm than Biden supporters, and so are answering polls at a higher rate.

The second reason why Trump may not be winning Pennsylvania has to do with who is answering polls. We suspect because Trump is the only candidate with “enthusiastic” voters, it’s Trump voters in particular who are disproportionately talking to pollsters. It’s the reverse of what happened in 2016, when the phenomenon of “shy” Trump voters meant that many pollsters undercounted Trump’s base of support. Many voters were afraid to admit they were Trumpers back then. Today, we suspect many pollsters are not adjusting their samples to account for this “non-response” bias, as it’s typically called. But SP&R is doing so.

Polls also say that Trump voters are more enthusiastic than Biden voters.

Republicans are slightly more enthusiastic ahead of November’s general election, edging out Democrats, according to a new survey.
In the poll, released Thursday by Gallup, 59 percent of Republicans said they are more enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election than in previous years. Fifty-five percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents said they felt the same.

Groups like seniors and white voters may not be swinging towards Trump because there isn’t an enthusiasm gap, unlike with black/Hispanic/young voters. According to a YouGov poll, groups that aren’t swinging towards Trump in the crosstab aggregate are also paying more attention to the election (and therefore are more enthusiastic, and answering more polls). When black/Hispanic/young voters start paying more attention, they’ll get enthusiastic and start answering polls, which should improve Biden’s polling.
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And that rural Hispanic voter hypothetical was based on something real. Rural Hispanic voters were already more Republican than other Hispanics in the 2020 election; and Biden did badly in the rural RGV in the primaries while doing better in cities like El Paso. The difference may be even larger than it was four years ago, with rural Hispanics swinging against Biden while urban and suburban Hispanics don’t. Rural Hispanics make up a small percentage of Hispanic voters (scroll down to "Area type"), so this swing doesn’t mean much for Biden’s electoral prospects. It screws with the crosstabs of Hispanic voters, however.
As Biden’s voters become more enthusiastic and the gap closes, polls may start swinging towards him as more of his voters answer polls. There have already been signs of this happening, like that surge in support mentioned earlier. Perhaps it’s because of the recent ad blitz by Biden energizing his supporters?
Oversamples, and the True State of the Election
Biden voters are not answering polls as much as Trump voters, and this is creating big swings in crosstabs thanks to low sample sizes. Polls with bigger sample sizes would be much better. The margins of error would be much smaller and the crosstabs much more accurate. Unfortunately, it’s too expensive to make polls with huge sample sizes, but there’s still the next best thing – oversamples.
Oversamples are polls that poll only one specific group. While a normal poll polls everyone, an oversample might poll only black voters, for example. Because of the big sample sizes, oversamples are much better for determining the voting intentions of groups than just looking at the crosstabs of normal polls. Oversamples can also use more advanced methods of polling to reach people who may not respond otherwise.
There are three oversamples that are going to be examined here. The first is by Black PAC, and it’s an oversample of black voters.
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Trump gets a pathetic 8% of black voters, less than half of the polling aggregate showing him getting 18%. This, along with Biden’s strong primary performances, suggest that the bad polling for Biden among black voters is entirely due to bad polling methodology.
Next, Hispanic voters. An oversample of Hispanic voters by Univision shows Biden leading Trump 58-31 (27 points). Again, that’s completely different from the polling aggregate showing Biden winning them by only 6 points. It is a slight decrease from 2020, where he won them by 33 points; but like stated earlier, Hispanics have been trending right for a while, so Trump making small gains among them isn’t surprising.
And finally, young voters. Split Ticket, an election prediction and analysis website, polled young voters. They used live text interviews, rather than a normal method like calling landlines.
In the poll, Biden leads Trump 35-25, a 10 point lead. Biden is disapproved of by 68% of young voters, while Trump is disapproved of by 70%. Of the three oversamples, this is the only one that lines up closely with the crosstab aggregate (Biden+8). Biden won young voters by 24 points in 2020, so it looks Trump is making large gains among the group.
But it’s not that simple.
Biden and Trump have a similar total disapproval rating, but the number of respondents who strongly disapprove of Trump is 61%. For Biden, it’s just 44%. This means Trump likely has a lower ceiling of support with young voters than Biden does – it’s hard to get someone who hates you to vote for you.
Additionally, young voters who disapprove of both Biden and Trump overwhelmingly prefer Biden to Trump. RFK Jr. actually wins this group, but like all third party candidates, his support is declining as the election gets closer. The combined voteshare in polls for RFK Jr. and Cornel West (a left-wing independent candidate) has been steadily decreasing. 6 months ago, it was 17.9%. Today, it’s only 11.5%. This raises the question of who RFK Jr.’s supporters will break for when they realize he can’t win.
https://preview.redd.it/zt0t5ptzhvzc1.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd1f7c717e66e750c57e76eaa617966708ebd222
Based on the approval ratings of Biden and Trump, and the “double haters” who already have chosen sides, it seems like the vast majority of young RFK Jr. supporters will go for Biden. His lead among young voters will only increase as time goes on. Of course, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to run ads like these to speed up the process.
Split Ticket also conducted a poll using a more normal method, an opt-in web panel. This poll had Trump doing much better with young voters than in their live text poll. So yes, some commonly used polling methods don’t work correctly!
Conclusion
Biden has been polling badly lately. He’s been trailing Trump nationally as well as in swing states. Polls say key parts of the Democratic base, black/Hispanic/young voters, are abandoning Biden in huge numbers. But when looked at closely, it’s not so simple. Other signs for Biden are pretty good. He’s been doing pretty well in primaries, and Democrats have been doing well in special and off-year elections. Polls are underestimating Biden’s support due to bad methodology and Democrats not answering polls. Oversamples show Biden doing fine with black voters, and mostly fine with Hispanic voters. The only group he really needs to work on is young voters, by trying to decrease RFK Jr.’s support.
So, 2024 won’t be a red wave where Trump wins big. But current signs don’t suggest 2024 is going to be a blue wave either, just another extremely close election like 2016 and 2020 both were. But there’s reason to believe Biden might outperform his 2020 showing despite that.
The American public is not very engaged right now, as there’s still seven months until the election, so Trump’s latest ventures with the legal system aren’t on people’s minds. When people tune in more, he can only get hurt from it. There’s also the massive fundraising gap between the two, which Trump is scrambling to close.
Here’s a prediction for how the election will actually go (margins are 20+, 15-19.9, 10-14.9, 5-9.9, 1-4.9, <1).
https://preview.redd.it/ufw3oxa2ivzc1.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=55a5dcc6c246cb34381165d211b17181717ef196

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2024.05.12 00:06 OKRedChris Autobus privée et 5 autos de police en escort, allant vers l’est sur Sherbrooke, hauteur de Saint-Hubert!! À 17:30. C’est qui dedans?

C’est qui dedans?

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2024.05.11 23:05 HomeworkSufficient69 Streak 345: Hoy era un buen día

A las 4:45 de la mañana me levanté porque el servicio de transporte para la carrera llegaría al hotel a las 5:20. Triste noticia: Por desgracia, el dueño de uno de los servicios de transporte murió de repente anoche. Nos dijeron que habría menos autobuses así que podría tardar más tiempo llegar al comienzo de la carrera. En la oscuridad de la mañana, mis amigos y yo esperamos en fila durante un hora antes de que finalmente pudiéramos subir a un autobús. Tardó como veinticinco minutos llegar al destino, el que era como seiscientos metros más alto en elevación. ¡El tiempo hacía notablemente más frío que en el estacionamiento del hotel! Sin embargo, estábamos listos. Aunque empezamos la carrera juntos, aquel no duró mucho, y pronto cada persona corría a su propio ritmo, lo que está bien. También se volvió más cálido después del amanecer y creí que el tiempo era perfecto. Al final, estaba muy contenta porque, primero, la terminé, que era mi objetivo principal y ,segundo, también era un bastante buen ritmo, ¡al menos para mí!

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