Nikon dr-3
NikonF3
2020.12.11 05:09 Lucasdul2 NikonF3
A community of users who love and use the Nikon F3--the greatest SLR of all time.
2016.03.08 07:17 PRIVATEADVOCACY Film Nikon users gear and creation sub
we talk about all things related to Nikon 35mm cameras
2013.05.20 16:44 ftfire105 NikonD3200
A place for people who use the Nikon D3200 DLSR to share photos and tips
2024.05.14 00:10 nik0nguy601 [NM] 40346 Legoland - 160 Spots at $1 ea.
Item Name/Set Number(s): [NM] 40346 Legoland
REMINDER: NO COMMENTS IN PAYMENTS OR INSTA-BAN!
Lego Price: $160 ($125 + $35 shipping)
Shipping: $35 (incl. insurance) via UPS Ground 20” x 16” x 4” 7lbs from 07974 to 98229
Raffle Total/Spots: 160 spots @ $1 each
Price justification? BE
Call spots? Yes
Spot limit per person? No
Duration of spot limit? N/A
Location (Country): USA
Will ship international? No
Timestamp/pics: https://imgur.com/a/vjxmKKE
Description: Brand new and sealed, box has some minor creases & shelf wear
Payment required w/in 15 minutes of raffle filling.
Cash App Info: https://cash.app
Tip BlobAndHisBoy
Number of vacant slots: 38
Number of unpaid users: 5
Number of unpaid slots: 62
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BlobAndHisBoy.
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submitted by nik0nguy601 to lego_raffles [link] [comments]
REMINDER: NO COMMENTS IN PAYMENTS OR INSTA-BAN!
Lego Price: $160 ($125 + $35 shipping)
Shipping: $35 (incl. insurance) via UPS Ground 20” x 16” x 4” 7lbs from 07974 to 98229
Raffle Total/Spots: 160 spots @ $1 each
Price justification? BE
Call spots? Yes
Spot limit per person? No
Duration of spot limit? N/A
Location (Country): USA
Will ship international? No
Timestamp/pics: https://imgur.com/a/vjxmKKE
Description: Brand new and sealed, box has some minor creases & shelf wear
Payment required w/in 15 minutes of raffle filling.
Cash App Info: https://cash.app
Tip BlobAndHisBoy
Number of vacant slots: 38
Number of unpaid users: 5
Number of unpaid slots: 62
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BlobAndHisBoy.
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110 kwyjibo_Hb PAID
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112 DrSeussFreak
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114 kwyjibo_Hb PAID
115 whatth3hec
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124 DrSeussFreak
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126 ScooterP73 PAID
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142 kwyjibo_Hb PAID
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149 kwyjibo_Hb PAID
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156 ScooterP73 PAID
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2024.05.08 21:46 Retrogroucho Jumping off the bandwagon
 | Hello friends, submitted by Retrogroucho to SonyAlpha [link] [comments] I’m afraid the time has come to jump ship. Looking for advice. What’s my gear worth or what’s my best route?? I’ve been shooting this setup mostly for work, along with a few inexpensive lenses:
Unfortunately, coming from the Nikon world (shot Nikon + Canon both personally and professionally), I’ve just never loved this camera, the buttons, mega menus, and most of all responsiveness and working feel. I just shot a large work event in Colorado, and a few weeks of travel in Peru before that, and I can honestly say I’m ready to move on to a system I love again. I’m an enthusiast, gear nerd, and there’s so much I miss when using the Sony system. I especially miss the colors of my old fujifilm x-trans jpgs, and the easy menus and tactile feel from Nikon pro bodied cameras (3 kings ftw). I think the Nikon Z or Fuji X mounts may be next for me. TL;DR What’s all this gear worth and what are my best options to find the right buyer(s)? TIA/PFA |
2024.05.08 00:34 Bartley707 PSA Accuracy Expectations
Long Winded Backstory - TL;DR at bottom
I got a cheap POS upper from a company we all know and hate, I figured for $180 I would "science" and if it didn't work out then 🤷♂️. Long story short, it's woefully inaccurate for a heavy 18" barrel, even with nicer 62gr & 77gr ammo. With the 77gr I finally got my groups down to about 5" @ 100yds. My 10.5" bottom of the barrel PSA w/ HS510-GR and no magnifier dings steel @300 yards more reliably than this heavy barreled 18" w/ a 3-9 Nikon or a Burris RT6 on it.
I've decided to quit wasting ammo at this point and get something better (I honestly always planned to) to fill the slot or an accurate mid-range "DMR" type setup. No, I'm not getting a DD or SOLGW tier gun yet either.
To my question, who here has gotten a PSA upper that's 18" or 20" that the could honestly say they feel like is at least a 2 MOA or better rifle. 1 MOA would be great but I realize that we are talking about a mid-range budget AR so I'll keep my expectations in check. 2 or better with bulk 55gr or 62gr would be good enough for me.
Would those of you with "Premium" FN barrels say it's more accurate than the standard PSA Phosphated Barrels? I'm considering grabbing one of the M16A4 type Premium uppers and putting an adjustable gas block (whisper pickle coming soon) and free float handguard on it. But then I think I may as well build from scratch at that point.
TL;DR
I bought a shitty BCA upper because I figured at the very least that an 18" Heavy Profile Stainless Steel 1/8 .223 Wylde barrel MUST be accurate, even if it's a $180 BCA upper. I was wrong.
What are the most accurate 18" - 20" PSA uppers that y'all have experience with, and exactly how accurate are they?
submitted by Bartley707 to PalmettoStateArms [link] [comments]
I got a cheap POS upper from a company we all know and hate, I figured for $180 I would "science" and if it didn't work out then 🤷♂️. Long story short, it's woefully inaccurate for a heavy 18" barrel, even with nicer 62gr & 77gr ammo. With the 77gr I finally got my groups down to about 5" @ 100yds. My 10.5" bottom of the barrel PSA w/ HS510-GR and no magnifier dings steel @300 yards more reliably than this heavy barreled 18" w/ a 3-9 Nikon or a Burris RT6 on it.
I've decided to quit wasting ammo at this point and get something better (I honestly always planned to) to fill the slot or an accurate mid-range "DMR" type setup. No, I'm not getting a DD or SOLGW tier gun yet either.
To my question, who here has gotten a PSA upper that's 18" or 20" that the could honestly say they feel like is at least a 2 MOA or better rifle. 1 MOA would be great but I realize that we are talking about a mid-range budget AR so I'll keep my expectations in check. 2 or better with bulk 55gr or 62gr would be good enough for me.
Would those of you with "Premium" FN barrels say it's more accurate than the standard PSA Phosphated Barrels? I'm considering grabbing one of the M16A4 type Premium uppers and putting an adjustable gas block (whisper pickle coming soon) and free float handguard on it. But then I think I may as well build from scratch at that point.
TL;DR
I bought a shitty BCA upper because I figured at the very least that an 18" Heavy Profile Stainless Steel 1/8 .223 Wylde barrel MUST be accurate, even if it's a $180 BCA upper. I was wrong.
What are the most accurate 18" - 20" PSA uppers that y'all have experience with, and exactly how accurate are they?
2024.04.26 11:43 LtCol_Davenport Suggestions about GFX (Medium Format) line
TL;DR: What (used) GFX camera to buy, as first MF camera, with constraint on budget? Also considering I already have other gear.
Hello,
as the title imply, I am looking for some advise about the GFX since I am not too familiar about, nor am I with any Medium Format (MF) camera.
Little to none background: I already have Nikon gear for wildlife and events and an X-Pro2 street and traveling. I am not a professional, so all my purchases are only justified by the hobby itself, not for a potential income (even though, I have done some paid jobs).
Basically, I am just curious to try a MF camera since I never did, and Fuji seems simply the more affordable. I took a look at the current line up and I would be more incline about the 100MP ones, since, by today standard, 50MP doesn't seem all that much. While I know that MP are not everything, but it seems to me that nowadays a Full Frame 46-60MP camera would not be that different from a 50MP MF ones, also considering all other drawbacks that MF has, not only price, but also technical. But hey, feel free to prove me wrong, I would happily save a few thousands!
Now, getting back on track, I see:
To get it clear straight out of the gate, I cannot afford any of these one new and I am more than fine buying used. This, makes the 100 II role out of the equation pretty fast. Speaking about the 100 and 100S, for some reason, the 100 it is considerably cheaper used while being much more expressive new (relative to the 100S), what's the catch? It is really because of the size, that people don't like it, or am i missing out something?
In this moment, i can see the GFX 100 used going for 3K if not less, some listings are as low as 2.3-2.5K vs the 100S being around 4K. What do you think?
Just to at least throw it into the bunch a considering it:
Personal opinion: Given my first few research, I have come to the conclusion that I don't mind the size and prefer the most affordable 100MP sensor I can get, leaning towards the GFX 100. Alternatively, since I already have other gear and I don't need fancy stuff but I was just curious about the quality difference of MF, maybe get the cheapest GFX 50S I could find, that will probably re-sell for similar value if I may not like it given the age and that it already have a v2 out.
Thanks in advance to everyone giving advice.
submitted by LtCol_Davenport to fujifilm [link] [comments]
Hello,
as the title imply, I am looking for some advise about the GFX since I am not too familiar about, nor am I with any Medium Format (MF) camera.
Little to none background: I already have Nikon gear for wildlife and events and an X-Pro2 street and traveling. I am not a professional, so all my purchases are only justified by the hobby itself, not for a potential income (even though, I have done some paid jobs).
Basically, I am just curious to try a MF camera since I never did, and Fuji seems simply the more affordable. I took a look at the current line up and I would be more incline about the 100MP ones, since, by today standard, 50MP doesn't seem all that much. While I know that MP are not everything, but it seems to me that nowadays a Full Frame 46-60MP camera would not be that different from a 50MP MF ones, also considering all other drawbacks that MF has, not only price, but also technical. But hey, feel free to prove me wrong, I would happily save a few thousands!
Now, getting back on track, I see:
- GFX 100
- GFX 100S
- GFX 100 II
To get it clear straight out of the gate, I cannot afford any of these one new and I am more than fine buying used. This, makes the 100 II role out of the equation pretty fast. Speaking about the 100 and 100S, for some reason, the 100 it is considerably cheaper used while being much more expressive new (relative to the 100S), what's the catch? It is really because of the size, that people don't like it, or am i missing out something?
In this moment, i can see the GFX 100 used going for 3K if not less, some listings are as low as 2.3-2.5K vs the 100S being around 4K. What do you think?
Just to at least throw it into the bunch a considering it:
- GFX 50S II: Used it is around 2.5K, basically the same as the GFX 100, any reason to? Apart size.
- GFX 50S: Used it is less than 2K, basically the same as a "normal" FF camera. I saw it as low as 1.7K, may be worth it, given the low price for the format?
Personal opinion: Given my first few research, I have come to the conclusion that I don't mind the size and prefer the most affordable 100MP sensor I can get, leaning towards the GFX 100. Alternatively, since I already have other gear and I don't need fancy stuff but I was just curious about the quality difference of MF, maybe get the cheapest GFX 50S I could find, that will probably re-sell for similar value if I may not like it given the age and that it already have a v2 out.
Thanks in advance to everyone giving advice.
2024.04.23 03:50 Nerrrv Camera Advice for a Hobbyist?
Hi everyone! Scroll for TL;DR
I am new to the cameras community! I have spent the last two years learning the basics of photography on my in-law's Canon Rebel T3i (like many I assume). I recently inherited some money on the condition that I spent it on a new camera/lens(es), which has brought me here! I have been down the rabbit hole of R50s, Z6 IIs, EOS RPs, A6400s, Lumix S5s, X-S10s and many more. A few (hopefully) helpful notes: I could swing a budget of $2.5k, but obviously the cheaper the better - I'd prefer to keep it between $1k-2k. I have no issues going refurbished, in fact it seems as though that might be a better route to secure a good camera for less, I just have no idea what to make sure of when I'm buying. I am located in Canada, so any online refurbished cameras would have to ship here.
I encountered the DSLR vs Mirrorless topic, and it seems as though mirrorless is the way to go moving forward...but please correct me if that is not the case. I've explored full-frame and aps-c, but I am not sure if the quality difference would really matter to me or not. As far as bulkiness or weight goes, I spend a lot of time hiking with a backpack, so a largeheavier camera really does not bother me much, I don't consider it a "con".
I am starting my master's in the fall, and am currently in the process of buying a house, so I won't be able to afford any upgrades for a while after this purchase - because of that, I'd like to future proof this purchase as much as possible.
I genuinely have no idea what to buy. I have read pros/cons for cameras from all of the bigger names (Canon, Nikon, Fujifilm, Sony) and am so far in now that I can't make heads or tails of it anymore. I spend most of my time shooting landscapes and wildlife, but I do occasionally dabble in portraits (of my fiancé). I have zero interest in videography, so that does not really need to be a consideration, only a bonus.
I am by no means an expert in photography, but I would rather spend more on a better quality camera now, take the time to learn it, and have it for many years, than get a "beginner" camera now, and want to upgrade again in another couple years. I have no loyalty to any brand currently, and only own the original two kit lenses from the T3i, so compatibility is not really an issue.
I'd love to hear any recommendations anyone here has for brands, specific cameras, lenses, new or used, and maybe a bit about why you're making the recommendation so I can learn more about the field! Thanks so much!
I also posted this to another photography subreddit, I hope this isn't breaking rule 3, but I trust the mods will remove it if it is :) just trying to cast a wide net for feedback!
TL;DR:
submitted by Nerrrv to Cameras [link] [comments]
I am new to the cameras community! I have spent the last two years learning the basics of photography on my in-law's Canon Rebel T3i (like many I assume). I recently inherited some money on the condition that I spent it on a new camera/lens(es), which has brought me here! I have been down the rabbit hole of R50s, Z6 IIs, EOS RPs, A6400s, Lumix S5s, X-S10s and many more. A few (hopefully) helpful notes: I could swing a budget of $2.5k, but obviously the cheaper the better - I'd prefer to keep it between $1k-2k. I have no issues going refurbished, in fact it seems as though that might be a better route to secure a good camera for less, I just have no idea what to make sure of when I'm buying. I am located in Canada, so any online refurbished cameras would have to ship here.
I encountered the DSLR vs Mirrorless topic, and it seems as though mirrorless is the way to go moving forward...but please correct me if that is not the case. I've explored full-frame and aps-c, but I am not sure if the quality difference would really matter to me or not. As far as bulkiness or weight goes, I spend a lot of time hiking with a backpack, so a largeheavier camera really does not bother me much, I don't consider it a "con".
I am starting my master's in the fall, and am currently in the process of buying a house, so I won't be able to afford any upgrades for a while after this purchase - because of that, I'd like to future proof this purchase as much as possible.
I genuinely have no idea what to buy. I have read pros/cons for cameras from all of the bigger names (Canon, Nikon, Fujifilm, Sony) and am so far in now that I can't make heads or tails of it anymore. I spend most of my time shooting landscapes and wildlife, but I do occasionally dabble in portraits (of my fiancé). I have zero interest in videography, so that does not really need to be a consideration, only a bonus.
I am by no means an expert in photography, but I would rather spend more on a better quality camera now, take the time to learn it, and have it for many years, than get a "beginner" camera now, and want to upgrade again in another couple years. I have no loyalty to any brand currently, and only own the original two kit lenses from the T3i, so compatibility is not really an issue.
I'd love to hear any recommendations anyone here has for brands, specific cameras, lenses, new or used, and maybe a bit about why you're making the recommendation so I can learn more about the field! Thanks so much!
I also posted this to another photography subreddit, I hope this isn't breaking rule 3, but I trust the mods will remove it if it is :) just trying to cast a wide net for feedback!
TL;DR:
- Novice to intermediate level
- ~2k budget for body/lens
- Landscape > wildlife > portrait
- Photos only, video quality only a bonus
- Want to future proof (e.g., not a beginner camera, would rather take the time to learn a better one)
- Leaning Sony because of scanning various subreddits and webpages praising Sony for their innovations, cheaper models than Canon, but really no idea - also no idea if what I just said is actually true
- Please help!
2024.04.18 10:09 elfman91 I'm lost analogue/digital/apps-c/full-frame/DSLR/lenses. Where to go?
Hello everyone,
I'll try to be as short as possible and not rant too much, I was born in 1991...I'm kidding.
So I started with one of the first digital cameras Canon G5, then moved to Canon 60D (I used it a bunch but not too much, the image quality wasn't up to my expectation but It may have been just the stock lens) after that I was mainly using my iPhone 11 then bought a GoPro 8 for diving and some holiday stuff, last year my combo was Iphone14pro for photos and GoPro for videos. This year I found an antique photography shop and bought a Canon 500N (35mm analogue) since then I have gone through 2 films and it's great (but I'm thinking a bit costly in the long run) got out my 60D from the bottom of my flat and now the pickle... I'm wondering what to do with it ?!
Option 1 was to sell 60D for around 300eur get some more money and buy an upgrade which would only be around 250D which is not really an upgrade.
Option 2 sell 60D get more money and go mirrorless! Cheapest is R100 (650eur) the reviews are not very good, the mostly say go for R50 (820eur) those reviews said if you're gonna go for R50 go for R10 go for RP go for R7 go for R8 so I'm looking up to 1500eur from a 650eur R100
Option 3 sell 60D and buy a better DSLR and that's 90D for 1750eur (which seems like nonsense to me)
So the most sane option is to go for mirrorless (full-frame or cropped I have no idea) Although I like how much I have to frame and think with analogue film ( it's like 50€ for film/scans/print)
My other gripe is the lenses in the 60d era there were hundreds of Canon / Tamron / Sigma lenses for ef/efs now there are few (my analogue 500n also uses ef) also there are only a few RF lenses and the prices went up a lot.
Some of my friends suggested to ditch on Canon and going another route Nikon (that's a no-no for me) Fujifilm (I got lost with their marking of cameras and also all of them available new are 1500€+) and Sony (meh?)
I would like to go Fujifilm, to be honest (Japan excites me) but I'm not sure which one and going for R50 seems easier to pick.
So I guess the real question is: Does buying a Fujifilm give me at least 5 years of support with cheaper lenses or is I happy with the stock one? Should I stick with the analogue/ 60d combo? Buy a used lens for both? Should I slap my wallet for a full-frame mirrorless? Any suggestion for a camera appreciated :) Thanks for reading :)
TL:DR 60D/500N or buy a new camera if yes which? (Canon / Fujifilm)
PS: I see the typo in the name but I cant change it
submitted by elfman91 to AskPhotography [link] [comments]
I'll try to be as short as possible and not rant too much, I was born in 1991...I'm kidding.
So I started with one of the first digital cameras Canon G5, then moved to Canon 60D (I used it a bunch but not too much, the image quality wasn't up to my expectation but It may have been just the stock lens) after that I was mainly using my iPhone 11 then bought a GoPro 8 for diving and some holiday stuff, last year my combo was Iphone14pro for photos and GoPro for videos. This year I found an antique photography shop and bought a Canon 500N (35mm analogue) since then I have gone through 2 films and it's great (but I'm thinking a bit costly in the long run) got out my 60D from the bottom of my flat and now the pickle... I'm wondering what to do with it ?!
Option 1 was to sell 60D for around 300eur get some more money and buy an upgrade which would only be around 250D which is not really an upgrade.
Option 2 sell 60D get more money and go mirrorless! Cheapest is R100 (650eur) the reviews are not very good, the mostly say go for R50 (820eur) those reviews said if you're gonna go for R50 go for R10 go for RP go for R7 go for R8 so I'm looking up to 1500eur from a 650eur R100
Option 3 sell 60D and buy a better DSLR and that's 90D for 1750eur (which seems like nonsense to me)
So the most sane option is to go for mirrorless (full-frame or cropped I have no idea) Although I like how much I have to frame and think with analogue film ( it's like 50€ for film/scans/print)
My other gripe is the lenses in the 60d era there were hundreds of Canon / Tamron / Sigma lenses for ef/efs now there are few (my analogue 500n also uses ef) also there are only a few RF lenses and the prices went up a lot.
Some of my friends suggested to ditch on Canon and going another route Nikon (that's a no-no for me) Fujifilm (I got lost with their marking of cameras and also all of them available new are 1500€+) and Sony (meh?)
I would like to go Fujifilm, to be honest (Japan excites me) but I'm not sure which one and going for R50 seems easier to pick.
So I guess the real question is: Does buying a Fujifilm give me at least 5 years of support with cheaper lenses or is I happy with the stock one? Should I stick with the analogue/ 60d combo? Buy a used lens for both? Should I slap my wallet for a full-frame mirrorless? Any suggestion for a camera appreciated :) Thanks for reading :)
TL:DR 60D/500N or buy a new camera if yes which? (Canon / Fujifilm)
PS: I see the typo in the name but I cant change it
2024.04.16 17:49 zigioman [S] [USA-NY] Re-Post with price change, Nikon Lenses, Film cameras, TLR accessories, Local to NYC
I'm moving apartments and want to get rid of some equipment I no longer use. Prices are net, will add shipping + paypal fees. No extra cost for local meetup in NYC. Re-posting for visibility. Most items have prices reduced. ~ ~ Timestamp: https://imgur.com/a/6CBbdoz Sample photos for inter-changeable lenses were taken on my Fuji xt4 Sample photos for fixed lens cameras were taken with the camera ~ ~ Russian Contax mount lenses - $30 together Jupiter-8 & Jupiter R 12 Both in good condition. I don't have a camera that can use them so I don't have any sample photos https://imgur.com/a/04p09JR SOLD ~~~ ~ Nikon Extension Tubes - Just pay fees and shipping Work with Nikon F and F2 era bodies (pre-AI) PK-1 8mm, PK-2 14mm, PK-3 27.5mm, PN-1 52.5mm SOLD ~ ~ Rollei Bay 1 filters - $40 each, $75 together, hood is free Parawaltzar No 2 Rolleinar No 1 w/ case Metal Rollei Hood w/ case Work well on all Bay 1 cameras (Rolleiflex, Yashica 124, etc) https://imgur.com/a/esPtlkb ~ ~ Fuji 18-135 - $275 Mark on the front element but it doesn't affect image quality. The focusing ring is a little loose. https://imgur.com/a/6pQ7jDp ~ ~ Nikkor Auto 35mm f1.4 - $275 Older style F mount lens, has been converted to AI https://imgur.com/a/OHf8cd2 ~ ~ Nikkor 50mm f1.4 - $115 Nice lens, great bokeh, but now I have the f1.2 https://imgur.com/a/EDfOcoO ~ ~ Nikkor 85mm f2 - $125 Nice lens, great bokeh (and sunstars) but now I have the f1.4 https://imgur.com/a/UMSP5Da ~ ~ Nikon FE with 50mm f1.8 and DR-3 para-scope attachment - $175 My first analog camera purchase. I'm sad to let it go but it's just been sitting on my shelf since I bought a F3. Lens has been recently serviced and has the smoothest focus of anything I've used. I replaced the light seals and it's light tight but the back door does tend to stick a little. https://imgur.com/a/7FmIJin ~ ~ Rollei XF35 with case, strap, and manual - $100 Nice compact camera. Auto exposure but manual focus. The battery was replaced two months ago. Bulb mode does not work. https://imgur.com/a/MqptSOa ~ ~ 5 per row 35mm negative holders - Free with any item PrintFile acid free negative holders. I bought the wrong size. ~ ~ 2x Fuji Superia 1600, exp 2017 - $25 per roll SOLD 2x Fuji Natura 1600, exp 2019 - $25 per roll SOLD 2x Fuji Pro 400H, exp 2022 - $25 per roll 5x Fuji Press 800, exp unknown - $15 per roll - I've shot with good results at 200 ISO, usable at 400, very grainy at 800 see album for examples 3x Fuji Pro 800, mid 2000s exp. - $20 per roll Recommend shooting at 200 ISO https://imgur.com/a/ldTipyQ ~ ~ Kodak Focus-Free plastic camera - $10 or free with purchase of other items
submitted by zigioman to photomarket [link] [comments]
2024.04.11 16:00 Kimcuoso Shutter Issues with my Nikon FA
TL;DR: My Nikon FA has this weird shutter issue, where it shoots 34 out of 36 Frames just fine, but sometimes the Shutter wont close, unless you change into mechanical mode, remove the lens or open the filmback. It's basically like the camera just decides to do a 10 minutes exposure out of nowhere. Has anybody ever had a similar problem? Or any advice what I should do next. So far, I replaced batteries, cleaned battery contacts
Hello together, a couple of month ago, i bought a used Nikon FA, that probably has not been used for the last 20 years. But the camera just works fine like 90% of the time. I already noticed on my first film that sometimes the shutter would stay open and the mirror in locked up position. To reset the camera, I just need to switch into one of the mechanical modes (B or M250). It is an issue of the electrical shutter, in mechanical mode, this never happens. Also what is really frustrating about it, is that it only occur when i loaded film and i only got to see once that it happened without any film inside. There i noticed, that if i open the filmback or remove the lens, it will automically reset just as when put into mechanical mode. Usually what i do before loading is testing the camera, see if it works or not, but yesterday it just happened to me, that 10 shots without film were fine, also the first 3 after loading the film, but my first real shot it got immediately stuck.
I already went to a repair shop, where this issue did not happen, so the guy cleaned the contacts and told me to replace batteries, but it keeps happening. Does anybody has a theory what might be wrong with it? I couldn't find anything so far in the internet and i am very grateful for every help i get. :)
submitted by Kimcuoso to AnalogCommunity [link] [comments]
Hello together, a couple of month ago, i bought a used Nikon FA, that probably has not been used for the last 20 years. But the camera just works fine like 90% of the time. I already noticed on my first film that sometimes the shutter would stay open and the mirror in locked up position. To reset the camera, I just need to switch into one of the mechanical modes (B or M250). It is an issue of the electrical shutter, in mechanical mode, this never happens. Also what is really frustrating about it, is that it only occur when i loaded film and i only got to see once that it happened without any film inside. There i noticed, that if i open the filmback or remove the lens, it will automically reset just as when put into mechanical mode. Usually what i do before loading is testing the camera, see if it works or not, but yesterday it just happened to me, that 10 shots without film were fine, also the first 3 after loading the film, but my first real shot it got immediately stuck.
I already went to a repair shop, where this issue did not happen, so the guy cleaned the contacts and told me to replace batteries, but it keeps happening. Does anybody has a theory what might be wrong with it? I couldn't find anything so far in the internet and i am very grateful for every help i get. :)
2024.04.04 07:37 prajnene X-Ray Inspection System Market Size: Current Status and Future Projections
The global x-ray inspection system market size was valued at USD 2.27 billion in 2022 and is anticipated to grow from USD 2.37 billion in 2023 to USD 3.44 billion by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.4% during the forecast period.
The global market for x-ray inspection systems saw substantial growth in recent years, driven by increasing demand for accurate and efficient inspection solutions across various industries. X-ray inspection systems play a crucial role in ensuring product quality, safety, and compliance with regulatory standards. This article delves into important aspects of the x-ray inspection system market, including key players, market segmentation, driving forces, regional trends, and emerging industry developments.
Browse In-depth Summary of This Research Insight:
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/x-ray-inspection-system-market-105227
Key Players: X-Ray Inspection System Market
The X-Ray Inspection System market can be segmented based on various factors including:
Product Type:
Computed Tomography (CT) Inspection Systems
Film-Based X-Ray Inspection Systems
Digital Radiography (DR) Inspection Systems
Others
Technology:
Computed Radiography (CR)
Direct Radiography (DR)
Computed Tomography (CT)
Others
Application:
Aerospace & Defense
Automotive
Electronics & Semiconductors
Food & Beverages
Pharmaceuticals & Medical Devices
Manufacturing
Others
End-User Industry:
Healthcare
Manufacturing
Food Processing
Automotive
Aerospace
Electronics
Others
Geography:
North America (U.S., Canada, Mexico)
Europe (Germany, U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Russia, Rest of Europe)
Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Rest of Asia Pacific)
Middle East & Africa (UAE, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Rest of Middle East & Africa)
South America (Brazil, Argentina, Rest of South America)
Driving Factors: X-Ray Inspection System Market
Several factors contribute to the growth of the X-ray inspection system market:
The market's growth varies across regions, with key contributors including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Factors such as industrialization, regulatory compliance, and technological advancements influence regional market dynamics.
Industry Trends: X-Ray Inspection System Market
The global X-ray inspection system market is experiencing substantial growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory requirements, and industry-specific demands. Key players continue to innovate, contributing to the market's evolution as it becomes an integral component of quality control across diverse industries. As industries strive for higher standards, the X-ray inspection system market is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.
submitted by prajnene to u/prajnene [link] [comments]
The global market for x-ray inspection systems saw substantial growth in recent years, driven by increasing demand for accurate and efficient inspection solutions across various industries. X-ray inspection systems play a crucial role in ensuring product quality, safety, and compliance with regulatory standards. This article delves into important aspects of the x-ray inspection system market, including key players, market segmentation, driving forces, regional trends, and emerging industry developments.
Browse In-depth Summary of This Research Insight:
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/x-ray-inspection-system-market-105227
Key Players: X-Ray Inspection System Market
- North Star Imaging Inc. (U.S.)
- Nikon Metrology, Inc. (U.S.)
- Nordson Corporation (U.S.)
- YXLON International GmbH (Germany)
- VJ Group, Inc. (U.S.)
- Mettler Toledo International Inc. (U.S.)
- Ametek, Inc. (U.S.)
- Viscom AG (Germany)
- ViTrox Corporation Berhad (Malaysia)
The X-Ray Inspection System market can be segmented based on various factors including:
Product Type:
Computed Tomography (CT) Inspection Systems
Film-Based X-Ray Inspection Systems
Digital Radiography (DR) Inspection Systems
Others
Technology:
Computed Radiography (CR)
Direct Radiography (DR)
Computed Tomography (CT)
Others
Application:
Aerospace & Defense
Automotive
Electronics & Semiconductors
Food & Beverages
Pharmaceuticals & Medical Devices
Manufacturing
Others
End-User Industry:
Healthcare
Manufacturing
Food Processing
Automotive
Aerospace
Electronics
Others
Geography:
North America (U.S., Canada, Mexico)
Europe (Germany, U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Russia, Rest of Europe)
Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Rest of Asia Pacific)
Middle East & Africa (UAE, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Rest of Middle East & Africa)
South America (Brazil, Argentina, Rest of South America)
Driving Factors: X-Ray Inspection System Market
Several factors contribute to the growth of the X-ray inspection system market:
- Stringent Regulatory Standards: Increasing regulatory standards regarding product safety and quality drive the adoption of X-ray inspection systems across industries.
- Rising Concerns for Food Safety: The food and beverage industry's emphasis on quality control and contamination detection fuels the demand for X-ray inspection systems.
- Advancements in Technology: Continuous advancements in X-ray technology, such as improved resolution and faster inspection speeds, attract industries looking to enhance their inspection processes.
The market's growth varies across regions, with key contributors including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Factors such as industrialization, regulatory compliance, and technological advancements influence regional market dynamics.
Industry Trends: X-Ray Inspection System Market
- Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI): The incorporation of AI and machine learning in X-ray inspection systems enhances the accuracy and efficiency of inspections, reducing false positives.
- Miniaturization of Systems: There is a trend toward developing compact and portable X-ray inspection systems, facilitating on-site inspections and reducing the overall footprint of inspection setups.
- Increased Automation: Industries are increasingly adopting automated X-ray inspection processes to improve throughput, reduce human error, and enhance overall operational efficiency.
The global X-ray inspection system market is experiencing substantial growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory requirements, and industry-specific demands. Key players continue to innovate, contributing to the market's evolution as it becomes an integral component of quality control across diverse industries. As industries strive for higher standards, the X-ray inspection system market is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.
2024.04.01 09:51 BainshieWrites [NoP Fanfic] Harmful Alternatives
u/SpacePaladin15's universe.
This is a continuation of the following stories:
[Death of a Monster]
[Survivors Guilt]
[Messages Back Home]
[A most unfortunate name]
[Two Sides of the Wrong Coin]
You choose Tails.
The coin spins in suspended for a few moments before the author snatches it out of the air, taking a moment to show it to you. Heads. He gives a grin as the world seems to become a darker more terrible place, one of death and sadness, of destruction and doom.
“I’m so sorry reader, you seem to have chosen wrong.”
—----------------
Memory Transcript: Arddon, Prophet, Word of God
Date: [standardized human time] June 2nd, 2137
I stared down at the congregation of people in front of me, thousands of eyes staring up at my person as I stood in front of the podium, faces agaze with desperation and despair. A herd in need of guidance, a shield against the horrors of the world. A herd in need of the word of truth,
My word.
“We are gathered here today as good prey, caring prey, the one true path forward through the dark. Together we have survived the cage, through the fire and the evil of predators both external and internal, we survive.”
The past six months had been dark, terrible times. Talsk had once been a jewel of the Federation, a simple testament to the power of prey working together in the herd. Good-natured people from around the galaxy would come and visit the wonders we had created here, a monument to peace and prosperity. Then the predators came and locked us away.
The sky was filled with fire, millions of pieces of trash burning in the nighttime sky, blocking out our view of the stars, blocking out our exit from our homeworld. The humans, the predators had come down from the heavens and trapped us beneath a burning sky, making sure we could never leave. Any ship we could cobble together would be cut to pieces by the destruction wrought upon our atmosphere.
“Together we have fought against those who would tear us apart. We have created a society, a way of life that is more than just survival, but the dignity we deserve as Farsul. A herd for all who have suffered under the predator's actions.”
The caging of Talsk had caused hundreds of millions of deaths. The homeworld of the Farsul was no longer an agricultural stronghold, depending on the imports from her colonies and other Federation members.
Overnight there wasn’t enough food to sustain the 6 billion inhabitants of Talsk, the meagre farmland that still existed was not nearly enough. Zurulian medicines and contact with the outside world disappeared in an instant, supply lines collapsed, and families were cut in half by the mere chance of whether they were on Talsk or not at the time of the predator’s attack.
Even if we’d have put everything behind building up farmland, we lacked the tools and supplies to implement such a thing. Talsk wasn’t ready to be cut off from hundreds of years of trade and supplies overnight. It was a crueller fate than if the humans had just attacked and taken us as cattle. At least then the damage wouldn’t have been self-inflicted.
“This is our home, protected by divine right, and the words I speak are the words of the first Elder as he speaks through me, his divine will given conduit from my soul. The old elders had turned their back on such traditions and this is the hell and despair we now find ourselves in. Only through belief and faith can we be set free from the predators’ grasp upon our souls.”
The first few months had been filled with fighting and rioting, as the Farsul of Talsk fought amongst each other for the scraps of resources left behind. Once grand cities burned to the ground, as society crumbled under the weight of the predator's attack.
It was during all this, that I heard the voice, the calling that told me what to do; the First Elder, the one who had carved out the first haven against predators. An old religion that had fallen out of favour in modern society, a once normal Farsul given divinity through acts of kindness, forgiveness and stability. A voice that instructed me to carve a safe haven out of Talsk with blood and determination. One infused with divinity and the gods will to protect good prey everywhere.
I look upon the walls that keep us safe, built high to defend against those who would kill and steal what we have built here. The outside world was a cruel terrible place, of bandits and fighting and blood and destruction, the true evil of the predators causing those not part of my congregation to be nothing more than vicious animals. The several thousand people here have food, have shelter, have safety. Free of the taint of predators the Farsul had become.
“But it isn't enough, it never is enough. The cage we find ourselves in is God's punishment for allowing the predatory rot and taint to set in. We took these diseased predators and placed them in facilities to ‘cure’ them, allowing their taint to spread! Because of this corruption, the First Elder sent down the humans as punishment for our folly!”
I was shouting now, paws gripped to the side of the podium as I could see my devotion reflected in the crowd down below me, their eyes glinting in the firelight of the torches that lit up the courtyard.
“We purged the predator diseased, the Exterminators who let this corruption set in! The predators who lived among us, the Krakotl and the Gojid! We tore out the taint found in our hearts, and in doing so the First Elder blessed us with peace and prosperity as chaos reigns supreme outside those walls!”
I took a deep breath to calm my fever pitch, turning more solemn as I spoke.
“This is a task that never ends. Our God-given duty is to destroy the predatory corruption that threatens to tear our community apart. Under the name of the First Elder, we shall not falter in our duty, we shall not break against the predatory corruption. This is why we are gathered here today, for the unity of the herd!”
I turned to look at those who stood behind me. Three Farsul of different shades of fur, tail and ears pinned back in fear. Each with their arms tied behind their backs, a short noose wrapped around their necks and a trapdoor beneath their paws.
“Sunka, whispering predatory corruption amongst good prey, threatening to destroy our herd!”
He threatened our stability, threatened my power, threatened everything my divine right had provided my herd. Their corrupting influence needed to be stopped.
“Fhane, found to be a sympathizer of the humans, bringing the predatory devils who locked away the sky!”
We'd discovered their pro-predator leanings when someone had reported seeing Fhane trying to get passage off Talsk with the humans, proving their own tainted visage to even consider working with them.
“Scyon, a predator amongst us. We’ve seen the way he acts, the cold heartless way he rejects the herd. They are the insidious reason we are in this situation. They are the hidden rot that our elders refused to destroy. Claiming empathy that such people could be ‘cured’ in facilities. Only divine judgment can truly cleanse the disease of flesh-eating predation.”
Scyon was an unfortunate case, but everyone who had met the child had come to the same conclusion: Predator disease. The Farsul just refused to be part of the herd, something was wrong with them, something broken behind the eyes.
It was his mother and sister I felt sorry for, the devilish predator having embedded themselves in a normal happy family. They were currently under lock and key; while the traditional mindset might suggest such people having spent so much time near Scyon would also be tainted, I truly hoped not. The rebuilding of Talsk to its former glory would require as many strong, healthy paws as possible.
The three were begging and pleading as I approached the lever that would pull the floor out from under their paws, staring back at my congregation.
“We cannot falter, we cannot fall again to corruption. We will follow the word of the First Elder. For the herd!”
For the Herd!
I heard my people below respond to my cry in turn, as I pulled the lever with a loud clunking sound, sending the three Farsul to their deaths, and keeping the herd safe once more.
—----------------------------
Audio from Fissan’s Choice Investing, recorded via espionage by a competing Nevok company
Date: 4th Feburary, 2137
“Hey hey hey, guess who it is? It’s your favourite Fissan, and I know you’re gonna love me even more when I tell you what I’ve got on the market.”
…
“Trust me, you’re gonna want to invest in this as soon as you see what I’ve got. Heck, if I was in this business of investing myself instead of selling leads, I’d 100% be snapping up this clear money maker.”
…
“Ok, so it’s a bar. Yes I know, the industry is down in the toilet since the scorched predators arrived, but look at the numbers I sent you. Yep, those are real, last month's figures. “The Happy Flowerbird”, used to be a speciality bar, has a rare liquor collection. Even has one of the few remaining bottles of Thafki wine that’s been appreciating nicely in value.”
…
“Yeah, that’s not the main draw though. The bar was turned into a pro-human venue. Cornered the entire market in the area and is making all the money right now from the nearby refugee centre.”
…
“Yes yes, I hate them as much as you do, but you don’t have to love someone to take their money. You see those numbers, and those numbers aren’t even half what you could make. This guy missed so many tricks, there is so much more money left on the table.”
…
“Well, the owner died and the kids want to sell quickly, you can offer them 85% value and I think they’ll take it. From their perspective, it’s a nice little inheritance and they aren’t going to want to spend that much effort getting full value.”
…
“I don’t think the predators killed him, let me go double check… nope, was found hanging from the neck in his house, depressing suicide note, yadda yadda yadda.”
…
“Even if he was tainted, you don't have to interact with them. That’s why you hire people, and you can slash the staff budget, this guy was paying way too much for the staff.”
…
“You hire predator-diseased patients. With the facilities being shut down a bunch of them are looking for work. Pay them minimum wage, who else is gonna hire them? And who cares if the humans snack on a few of their own predatory kind?”
…
“That's the best thing about the numbers: the guy was severely undercharging. Guess what percentage your average human drink is?”
…
“Lower…”
..
“Way lower…”
…
“5%.”
…
“Not joking, it's basically soda! You water it down and still charge full price! Higher than full price!”
…
“Well, where else are they going to go? Who else would be crazy enough to own a pro-predator bar?”
…
“Now you're seeing it, this is a business opportunity of a lifetime: dirt cheap employees, captive audience, high margins.”
…
“I knew you'd see it my way. I'll send over the paperwork, you're going to make so much money from the predators.”
—-------------
Memory Transcript: Firdon, Geneva Project Engineer.
Date: [standardized human time] January 31st, 2137
With a single number, I trapped humanity beneath the stars.
I looked at the document I just typed, my paws moving over the strange human-created keypad as I finished writing. It didn't look like an influential document, just a bland paper written to explain certain FTL engineering concepts within the current framework of human understanding.
But its impact would be felt for generations.
I looked around the room I was sitting in, a simple lab, empty as I was the last one still working. The team I worked with were a diverse bunch: various ex-federation members all brought together with the same goal: to give humanity the tools they needed to catch up and win this war.
A goal I was still committed to, even with my sabotage. The humans would still be able to bring peace amongst the stars with the information I had provided.
The main difficulty in FTL was calculating how to move through space without hitting anything. Even a slight difference during warp would cause catastrophic events as atoms interacted with other atoms, tearing the laws of physics asunder. This was why early FTL technologies were so slow: because this calculation takes time. Or at least it did, until the Harrow Constant.
The Harrow Constant was a breakthrough in FTL knowledge and technology, increasing the speed of engines by a whole 25%. A highly complicated number that mathematically used the impact of faster-than-light particles upon the universe around them to ensure that there would be no collisions. It was currently a 68-digit number, with the last two having been calculated and added to the constant a mere 3 years ago, although anything past 21 digits was excessive and already calculated the position of surrounding space to less than an atom’s width.
The paper I had just written explained this, how to use it, and how to theoretically calculate the constant themselves, all within humanity's current understanding of the universe. It was all mathematically correct, apart from the constant itself. Digit 18 was a 3 instead of an 8.
I thought back to why I’d originally turned traitor to the Federation. I believed that the humans would create a better universe for my family to live in, that was why I decided to go against everything I’d ever been taught and aided the humans with their FTL knowledge. It was ironic: I still believed in the humans doing just that, it was just unfortunate that my family would not be part of this new universe.
When the humans had locked Talsk in its cage, I had begged for them to get my family out. I’d called human after human, anyone I could think of who would listen. In the end, none of it mattered. The cage was fitted and those I did everything for remained inside. I’d been given promises that at the end of the war, they’d get them out. That frankly wasn’t enough, not after what I’d given them in return, for no real reward.
I knew what was going to happen next. They’d check the paper, find that all the science matches up, and then start implementing it. There was no way they could fully calculate the constant on their own without spending years they didn’t have. So they’d take it as truth. Nobody else would notice, nobody memorized the number past 6 digits, because why would you? And it would work… most of the time.
More than most of the time. 17 digits of correctness worked for most cases. The humans would get their faster ships, and be able to keep up with the Kolshians and the Arxur in the war. But every now and then, less than 1 in 500 times… something would go wrong. Catastrophically wrong. Not enough to hurt the war effort, but enough that people would notice that human ships… are wrong. Modern FTL ships never had these kinds of errors.
Maybe the UN would eventually work it out after a few large-scale failures. Maybe they wouldn’t. The number of things you’d check before even thinking about the constant is… monumentally high, and even then you’d check it against the base research paper: the paper I had just written. I even had plausible deniability if they ever worked out the paper was wrong: a 3 looks very much like an 8 in human script.
But humans would see space travel as… dangerous. Over 200 years ago there was a disaster surrounding a new type of technology, the Hindenburg disaster. Even now, the same technology is culturally considered… wrong, and risky. The same humans who will jump out of an aeroplane with nothing but a parachute were given cultural harm that still lasts to this day.
A cultural harm that they will gain from FTL travel on human-created engines. A paranoia that no other species will get. With a single number, I will lock humanity beneath the sky using their own fears.
I don’t blame humans for doing what they did. Maybe the Farsul don’t deserve to explore the galaxy after what we did to the rest of the Federation. However, after what humans did to my family…
They didn’t deserve to either.
—------------------------
Memory Transcript: Talala, Worried Mother.
Date: [standardized human time] October 19th, 2136
I watched the TV fitfully, seeing the destruction and devastation that had been done to the pred– human planet. Cities were destroyed in an instant, rubble as far as the eye could see.
I held the pad in one hand, gripped tight in my wing, fearfully and desperately waiting for any kind of information, any contact. I could still see the last message sent my way by my son, a single statement sent three days ago.
“Everything is about to start. Don't worry too much, I'll be safe with the humans. I love you both, contact you soon.”
Three months ago, everything had changed and a new sapient predator species had entered the galactic scene, one that claimed compassion and empathy. Frankly, I had nothing against them, no matter how much their visage terrified me.
What I did have a problem with, was the war the humans had sparked. Even though it wasn't their fault, I couldn't help but dislike them for the trouble they caused.
“He'll be alright, the humans won and he's a good pilot.”
My husband sat on the perch next to me, his wings wrapped around my body comfortingly, staring at the same two screens that I was. I knew he was just as worried as my own frantic thoughts, but was putting on a tough face for my sake.
I had a single son, Zathsim, the finest Krakotl a mother could ask for. Brave, kind-hearted, and loved to fly. That was one of my greatest guilts as I watched him grow up, knowing the heavy gravity of Venlil Prime stopped Zathsim from truly being free. Not that I had much choice in the matter.
I could still remember the first time we went to the arcade and he tried a VR fighter simulator, the glee emanating from his feathers as the pure freedom of flight was given to him, unrestrained from the weight of the place we called home.
That desire for freedom had never left Zathsim, and that as well as a desire to protect people pushed him to join the Space Corps. This wasn't the first time I desperately watched the news hoping nothing would hurt my little hatchling. Every time an Arxur raid would happen I knew he'd be up there, protecting us. Every time I prayed to Inatala that Zathsim would be led home safely.
But this time was worse.
“Why did he go, they weren't forcing people to join the defence fleet, why would he make such a choice?”
He'd gone to Earth to protect us, to protect our new predatory friends, and said it was something he needed to do. Going against not the mindless Arxur, but the fleets of Nishtal, against captain Kalsim himself.
Humanity had somehow won, but at a terrible price, and were now under the cruel claw of the Arxur. All I could do was think about was my poor child stuck on a planet, now swarming with greys, hoping that he would return home safe, hoping for any information at all.
“Zathsim is your son, through and through. He saw something he had to change, and had to fully dive into it, damned the danger or consequences.”
I knew what he was talking about. It was why we were here on Venlil Prime and not Nishtal. I had discovered corruption within the ranks of our local Exterminators, taking bribes to use the arm of the law against business competitors. I’d tried to get the word out via the small news organisation I’d worked for. In the end, after Predator Disease claims and investigations, I had been forced to flee Nishtal to a place where the Exterminator’s guild wouldn’t follow, the “weakest” race in the Federation.
I sat there next to my husband, as both of us were embraced in each other's wings, watching the news continue to report on the Earth situation. They were saying that the Arxur weren’t invading, that they were aiding without demanding anything in return. I knew such a thing was a lie, but part of me wanted to grab onto that piece of hope, anything to increase the chance that Zathsim was ok.
A knock sounded on the door, a banging sound that caused me to jump. A loud heavy foreboding noise demanded I leave the perch to attend to this new visitor. Slowly I moved through the darkened rooms to open the front door, a moment to get away from my thoughts as my husband followed slowly behind.
A pred- human was standing there. From the UN, face mask on and wearing the blue military pelts; neatly pressed and maintained, holding their hat in their left hand. I felt my feathers bristle in fear, but not because of the predatory gaze hidden behind the mask, but something darker, something far worse that seemed to hang in the air around them.
“Is this Talala and Barsim?”
His voice was sad and solemn, as the deep tones of the predator asked the simple question. I stumbled with my words for a moment before answering.
“Yes? W-what is this about?”
There was another pause, the human taking a second to swallow before softly speaking once again, tearing my world apart.
“The UN regrets to inform you that your son, Zathsim, was killed in action during the defence of Earth…”
—--------------------------
Memory Transcript: Dr. Nikonous, Anti-cure Researcher
Date: [standardized human time] February 6th, 2137
I stared down at the molecular structure, watching it slowly interact with the genetic material, seeing the artificial creation start to bind in the way that I expected. It was nice to see an actual improvement to my work, after the many years in which the Federation had sabotaged what I was doing.
It turns out I had been inadvertently working towards reversing the Federation’s gene edits long before the humans. I’d noticed the condition in the Gojid, where contamination of food could lead to death, and had set my life’s work to fix it. Even with the Federation’s sabotage against my work, my head start on the…. “Cure-cure” as the humans were calling it, was invaluable to stopping the allergic reaction to meat-based proteins.
I gave a stretch as I noticed the late hour, feeling my spine pop under the heavy gravity of Venlil Prime. The lab was mostly empty, all but the Venlil, my closest friend Revel, having gone home half a claw earlier. I placed the samples back into storage, glad to know that they wouldn’t be destroyed any time soon. Intellectually, I had never been better since the revelations from Chief Nikonous. My lab was now fully funded, shiny and new, everything I could ever wish for.
I was having other issues, however.
“Well, I’m heading off for the paw. Gonna go grab something to eat and try the new human restaurant that just opened up if you wanna join me, Revel.”
I looked over at the Venlil who sat in the seat opposite me. While working on my impossible task to cure the Gojid meat allergy all these years he had been one of my closest friends, a fellow scientist who had been brought onto the cause by myself. At least… he had been my closest friend.
He glanced up for a moment, staring me straight in the eyes with a neutral expression on his face, his tail twitching with slight annoyance.
“No, I’m good. I’m going to finish some stuff up here.”
I felt myself slump with the dejection, something I’d gotten used to often enough over the last few months. Everything had changed since Nikonous, my namesake, my uncle had let slip the true evil of the Kolshian government. It had then gotten worse with the revelations from Talsk, and what they had done to the Venlil people.
I pressed forward again, wanting to do anything with someone, desperately wanting to have at least some semblance of a herd again. Hoping for any way to move past the rejection and isolation.
“I mean, we don’t have to get food. I heard the local bar got a few human board games in, so once you’re finished here we can-”
“Just stop, ok?”
Revel interrupted my invitation with a scowl on his face, tail now more animated in anger as he stared at me.
“I work with you because I have to, but I don’t want to do things with you or pretend as if we’re part of the same herd. I don’t like you. Stop trying to pretend everything is fine and normal because it isn’t.”
I felt as if I’d been punched in the face, despair running through my body as I felt my eyes start to water. I knew something was wrong, especially since Revel had been avoiding me completely over the last two months, but hearing it aloud hurt.
“But we’ve known each other for years… Revel, you’re my friend. Don’t tell me that you’re also blaming me as well.”
“Was. Was your friend. Before I knew what kind of a person you were.” The accusation was thrown out with his harsh words and sharp tone. “I don’t know how you managed to convince the humans, but I’m not buying your ridiculous lie that you didn’t know. You just so happened to already be working on the problem associated with the big secret conspiracy, and you’re literally related to Nikonous, by name and blood. I know it might be hard for a Kolshian to believe it, but I’m not stupid just because I’m not a crippler.”
My eyes started to drip silent tears as the words were shouted out at me. It wasn't the meanest thing someone had said to me over the past few months, but coming from Revel made it hurt that much more.
“But I didn't know, I'm begging you I-”
“Just shut it. Save your Feddie lies for someone who'll believe them, Nikonous.”
The last word was spoken with venom, a reminder of who I shared my name with, the evil my namesake had done. With this final rebuff, I physically recoiled, opening my mouth to say anything in response before being unable to find the words.
I waited for a few more moments, hoping my once friend would say something, anything, but Revel just continued to glare at me until I finally gave up. I ran, exiting the lab as fast as I could, slinking away and out into the streets of Venlil Prime.
Even in public, things didn't get much better for me. The sidewalks were bustling, groups of Venlil, Gojid and even humans making their way through the city. But I was alone, the herds around me going out of their way to isolate and exclude me if I tried to naturally join them. Not that this was anything new: a herd of one was my new reality over the last few months.
I stumbled over the soft pavement as an outstretched paw caused me to lose my footing, barely standing upright as I nearly fell to the ground. Cruel muted laughter and whispered insults were thrown at me. I heard and saw it all, completely alone even in this busy city.
I paused for a moment as I finally reached my small abode, staring at the front door, a simple metal entryway. Exactly where I left it earlier this paw, but now adorned with a new ‘decoration’: Spray painted in bright orange, a giant single word written in Venlilese.
“CRIPPLER”.
With a broken soul, I entered my home, closing the door behind myself to a world that hated me for something I didn’t do. An empty living room for someone with an empty heart and an empty herd. The absolute hopelessness of it all overwhelmed me, a situation I had no way of fixing that wasn’t my fault. I sat on the floor in the middle of the room, curled up into a ball and started to sob.
Alone.
—----------------------
Memory Transcript: Estala*, Prestige Exterminator, Human Tactics Advisor.*
Date: [standardized human time] April 7th, 2137
“So what are you going to do about it? You say you’re here to help, but practically everyone at the centre has been harassed by you silver-suited goons! Can barely walk down some streets without being threatened with death!”
I looked on at the masked human standing in front of me as they continued to shout in my direction. I couldn’t see his features but I could tell that he was full of rage. Probably reasonable rage if his story and the story of so many other humans were true.
“I’m sorry the guild has done these things to you and other humans. We’re working tirelessly to root out elements still stuck in Federation thinking.”
That had been my life for the last two months: training, investigations, rooting out those who wouldn't get with the times. Half of the reason we were going through a personnel problem was due to the hundreds of exterminators we'd fired, and in many cases criminally charged.
“Yeah suuuuure, investigate yourselves, no conflict of interest there! ‘We see no problems with our officer's actions in setting fire to someone’...”
“That's not fair, I'm… “ I paused for a moment as I felt an annoyance at the accusation, my feathers flaring out momentarily before I took a deep breath to calm down.
“Look, we're trying to change, it just takes time. Take my personal number, if you want to report or talk about anything I will respond, no matter the time of day.”
I handed over one of the little pre-printed strips of card with my details written on the side in human English, watching as the man took it from me. I could tell even through the mask the human was glaring in my direction.
“Whatever. No idea why I’m even talking with the SS here.”
I watched as he walked away grumbling, feeling despair at the general… enormity of the task ahead of me. I truly believed that most Exterminators were good people who just wanted to protect those around them, but removing a lifetime of Federation corruption and lies wasn’t a small or easy task. Stories of Exterminator harassment or even occasionally worse had been most of what I’d heard about today.
I looked around at the stalls I had set up in the middle of Dayside City, a handful of other Exterminators also manning the desks. An outreach program, providing information for any curious humans, posters and signs displaying a variety of new initiatives.
It was nice seeing everything laid out in such a manner: the changes made to banning flamethrowers, advertising hiring positions specifically focused on human applicants, as well as some important information such as “Don’t pet the shadestalkers, they are dangerous”. The number of humans killed attempting to “tame” the predators was…. More than zero.
I looked across the aisle to Joseph manning his singular stall as part of the event, a grouping of children of various species looking, fawning and petting the kittens my human friend had brought along. At least someone was having fun, as Joseph and the other humans seemed to take great enjoyment in coddling the tiny feral predators like a child. I, frankly, couldn’t stand them, although from what I gathered their introduction as a pest repellant in farms had been a huge success.
I could hear Joseph talking to them about pet ownership on Skalga. The Exterminator’s guild had to accept that humans had brought their feral pets along with them as loved companions, so most reasonable districts had taken a… blind eye approach. They would be left alone provided no one was endangered. The other option would involve the humans hating us and keeping them hidden, adding more danger. It was far more preferable to teach the humans how to be good owners on a planet where their pets were legitimately dangerous to certain species.
I sighed and slumped over my stand. It all just felt… too much. Hearing every problem, seeing every issue, and trying to overcome every challenge that remained while being fought by all of society every step of the way. Humans hated me because as a Krakotl Exterminator, I represented everything old and bad with the federation. Anti-predator groups hated me because as a force for pro-reform, I represented everything new that had appeared with the humans.
I’d just like things to be a bit simpler for once.
“What’s wrong Estie? I thought this kind of thing would be what you lived for meeting new people and resisting the urge to adopt all these adorable kitties and become a crazy cat Krakotl…”
I looked up from my slump of despair, seeing Joseph having wandered over in my moment of tiredness, a kitten still in his arms. I gave another sigh.
“It’s just… it feels like trying to change everyone’s opinion is a flight against the wind, and there’s just so much to fix in the Exterminators, both in actuality and perceptions. It’s a bit tiring.”
“Look, to humans the Exterminators are a Federation creation that sets cute animals on fire, is directly linked to the Predator Disease facilities, and has many members who have spent the last 6 odd months harassing humans.”
I squinted at Joseph in confusion, tilting my head at the human’s strange attempt to console me.
“If you are trying to make me feel better, this is isn’t working.”
“My point is that these feelings and views don’t change overnight. Less than 8 months ago every exterminator manning these desks, including you, would be perfectly happy to set me on fire. Heck, a year ago we didn't even know aliens existed. I see the changes you're making, and they’re working, it's just going to take time to implement and time for people to see that.”
Joseph was right of course. Every complaint and insult was just a symptom of a broken system that still wasn’t fixed, and wouldn’t be fixed for some time.
“It just sucks in the meanwhile, I guess.”
“You could try petting a kitty. That makes everyone feel better.”
I flared out my feathers in worry at that statement.
“I don’t know how humans see a feral predator as ‘cute’.”
Joseph in response gave a mock gasp of shock, wrapping his hands around the ears of the cat in his arms.
“Nooo, don’t listen to her! You are an adorable little fluffykins and we will eventually win Estala over with your power of cuteness!”
I couldn’t help but chuckle at that, laughing as Joseph returned to the pups and children who were still playing with the human pets. I did feel better, my friend always knew what to say to make me feel better.
I glanced back at the crowd, Venlil and humans, many looking in our direction as they passed by, a few pointing or talking amongst themselves as they walked on. One started to make their way towards us, a human, unmasked, looked to be a young adult woman. She looked…
Wrong.
There was something about her, the way she… walked? The way she glanced around from side to side as she broke from the crowds. Predatory, wrong, flaring every instinct in my mind that this wasn’t right. I moved forward, away from the stands to intercept her, trying to shake the feeling that something was off.
“Hi, can I help you? We’ve got information on the changes happening to the guild and…”
I trailed off as the human looked at me, a gaze filled with anger, with hate, leaving me speechless as those forward-facing eyes were filled with bloodlust, driving fear deep into my soul.
“This is for Earth, you genocidal fascist!”
She raised her hand, holding a device, her jacket opening up as she did so showing something strapped to her body. It took me a few moments to realize what it was. Ever since the memorial bombing the UN had made sure all authorities on Skalga could recognize what I was seeing: an explosive device.
Time slowed down, each second ticking by as if minutes were passing. I didn’t think, I didn’t put together a plan. I didn’t consider the people around me: Joseph and his kittens with the children, or even the other Exterminators; good people sat in the stalls around me. I just acted, the first initial thought that came to my mind. I tackled her to the ground and covered her with my body.
[WARNING: Memory transcription may be invalid or missing pieces due to the following error codes
X0GW12: Severe physical trauma.
For more information on error codes and fixing them, visit:
fctp://fwn.memory-tek.fs.fed/Memory-Tek-5000-error-codes#howToFix]
There was no noticeable explosion. Just sudden Pain. Just sound, just force.
There were no thoughts or conscious decisions as the world became a confusing cascading series of sights and sounds as my body tried to make sense of what had just happened, a jumbled brain trying to put together the clues and failing to do so. All I could tell for certain was I hurt. Badly.
I was on the floor. I could see my wing outstretched in front of me. I tried to move it, to get up, to see what had happened. Nothing was working. It took a few seconds to realize the issue: The wing was lying several feet away, a mangled limb covered in purple gore.
Stand up.
I wanted to, I needed to. Others around me might be in danger, might be in trouble, but all there was was pain. I tried to cry out for help, but nothing but a waterfall of blood escaped my beak as it filled my lungs with each attempted breath, splitting and coughing as I tried to breath through the purple liquid.
The rest of the world faded into nothing but pain, a single spot of light in my vision representing my entire world. The chaos around me, the shouting and people frantically going to and fro didn’t matter, all that existed was that spot of light.
Then a figure stepped out of that light. A Krakotl, someone I hadn’t seen for over 10 years, an impossible figure, someone I’d greatly missed for so long.
“Dad?”
“Shhhh… it’s going to be ok my little egg. It’s going to be ok.”
I could feel his wings embracing my broken body, hands gently running over my head, as if I was a child waking from a nightmare after watching one too many episodes of ‘The Exterminators’ again, softly humming a tune as he did so.
“I need to get up. Others might be hurt, I need to help them, I can’t just stay here Dad.”
“That’s for others to do now. It’s time for you to rest. You’ve done your part.”
All I could see was his face, the man who had raised me, the man I’d found murdered in my own home, holding and comforting me as the rest of the world continued to fade away and become irrelevant.
“Did I do well? Did I do enough?”
I watched my dad give a happy head tilt as he stared down at me, eyes soft, filled with love and care just as I always remembered.
The pain, the struggle against the Federation systems, the guilt of what I’d done, the lonely nights at the orphanage and the attempt afterwards in the Exterminators to make sure no one else ever felt that hurt themselves.
None of it mattered anymore. All that mattered was the safety and warmth from the loving embrace of a parent to his daughter.
“Both of us are so proud of you Estala, we always have been.”
[WARNING: Memory transcription terminated due to error code:
APTT000: Death of subject. Reason: Death of subject via blood loss and organ damage
For more information on error codes and fixing them, visit:
fctp://fwn.memory-tek.fs.fed/Memory-Tek-5000-error-codes#howToFix]
—-----------------
Wanna see what would have happened if you picked heads? Check that out here.
submitted by BainshieWrites to HFY [link] [comments]
This is a continuation of the following stories:
[Death of a Monster]
[Survivors Guilt]
[Messages Back Home]
[A most unfortunate name]
[Two Sides of the Wrong Coin]
The coin spins in suspended for a few moments before the author snatches it out of the air, taking a moment to show it to you. Heads. He gives a grin as the world seems to become a darker more terrible place, one of death and sadness, of destruction and doom.
“I’m so sorry reader, you seem to have chosen wrong.”
—----------------
Memory Transcript: Arddon, Prophet, Word of God
Date: [standardized human time] June 2nd, 2137
I stared down at the congregation of people in front of me, thousands of eyes staring up at my person as I stood in front of the podium, faces agaze with desperation and despair. A herd in need of guidance, a shield against the horrors of the world. A herd in need of the word of truth,
My word.
“We are gathered here today as good prey, caring prey, the one true path forward through the dark. Together we have survived the cage, through the fire and the evil of predators both external and internal, we survive.”
The past six months had been dark, terrible times. Talsk had once been a jewel of the Federation, a simple testament to the power of prey working together in the herd. Good-natured people from around the galaxy would come and visit the wonders we had created here, a monument to peace and prosperity. Then the predators came and locked us away.
The sky was filled with fire, millions of pieces of trash burning in the nighttime sky, blocking out our view of the stars, blocking out our exit from our homeworld. The humans, the predators had come down from the heavens and trapped us beneath a burning sky, making sure we could never leave. Any ship we could cobble together would be cut to pieces by the destruction wrought upon our atmosphere.
“Together we have fought against those who would tear us apart. We have created a society, a way of life that is more than just survival, but the dignity we deserve as Farsul. A herd for all who have suffered under the predator's actions.”
The caging of Talsk had caused hundreds of millions of deaths. The homeworld of the Farsul was no longer an agricultural stronghold, depending on the imports from her colonies and other Federation members.
Overnight there wasn’t enough food to sustain the 6 billion inhabitants of Talsk, the meagre farmland that still existed was not nearly enough. Zurulian medicines and contact with the outside world disappeared in an instant, supply lines collapsed, and families were cut in half by the mere chance of whether they were on Talsk or not at the time of the predator’s attack.
Even if we’d have put everything behind building up farmland, we lacked the tools and supplies to implement such a thing. Talsk wasn’t ready to be cut off from hundreds of years of trade and supplies overnight. It was a crueller fate than if the humans had just attacked and taken us as cattle. At least then the damage wouldn’t have been self-inflicted.
“This is our home, protected by divine right, and the words I speak are the words of the first Elder as he speaks through me, his divine will given conduit from my soul. The old elders had turned their back on such traditions and this is the hell and despair we now find ourselves in. Only through belief and faith can we be set free from the predators’ grasp upon our souls.”
The first few months had been filled with fighting and rioting, as the Farsul of Talsk fought amongst each other for the scraps of resources left behind. Once grand cities burned to the ground, as society crumbled under the weight of the predator's attack.
It was during all this, that I heard the voice, the calling that told me what to do; the First Elder, the one who had carved out the first haven against predators. An old religion that had fallen out of favour in modern society, a once normal Farsul given divinity through acts of kindness, forgiveness and stability. A voice that instructed me to carve a safe haven out of Talsk with blood and determination. One infused with divinity and the gods will to protect good prey everywhere.
I look upon the walls that keep us safe, built high to defend against those who would kill and steal what we have built here. The outside world was a cruel terrible place, of bandits and fighting and blood and destruction, the true evil of the predators causing those not part of my congregation to be nothing more than vicious animals. The several thousand people here have food, have shelter, have safety. Free of the taint of predators the Farsul had become.
“But it isn't enough, it never is enough. The cage we find ourselves in is God's punishment for allowing the predatory rot and taint to set in. We took these diseased predators and placed them in facilities to ‘cure’ them, allowing their taint to spread! Because of this corruption, the First Elder sent down the humans as punishment for our folly!”
I was shouting now, paws gripped to the side of the podium as I could see my devotion reflected in the crowd down below me, their eyes glinting in the firelight of the torches that lit up the courtyard.
“We purged the predator diseased, the Exterminators who let this corruption set in! The predators who lived among us, the Krakotl and the Gojid! We tore out the taint found in our hearts, and in doing so the First Elder blessed us with peace and prosperity as chaos reigns supreme outside those walls!”
I took a deep breath to calm my fever pitch, turning more solemn as I spoke.
“This is a task that never ends. Our God-given duty is to destroy the predatory corruption that threatens to tear our community apart. Under the name of the First Elder, we shall not falter in our duty, we shall not break against the predatory corruption. This is why we are gathered here today, for the unity of the herd!”
I turned to look at those who stood behind me. Three Farsul of different shades of fur, tail and ears pinned back in fear. Each with their arms tied behind their backs, a short noose wrapped around their necks and a trapdoor beneath their paws.
“Sunka, whispering predatory corruption amongst good prey, threatening to destroy our herd!”
He threatened our stability, threatened my power, threatened everything my divine right had provided my herd. Their corrupting influence needed to be stopped.
“Fhane, found to be a sympathizer of the humans, bringing the predatory devils who locked away the sky!”
We'd discovered their pro-predator leanings when someone had reported seeing Fhane trying to get passage off Talsk with the humans, proving their own tainted visage to even consider working with them.
“Scyon, a predator amongst us. We’ve seen the way he acts, the cold heartless way he rejects the herd. They are the insidious reason we are in this situation. They are the hidden rot that our elders refused to destroy. Claiming empathy that such people could be ‘cured’ in facilities. Only divine judgment can truly cleanse the disease of flesh-eating predation.”
Scyon was an unfortunate case, but everyone who had met the child had come to the same conclusion: Predator disease. The Farsul just refused to be part of the herd, something was wrong with them, something broken behind the eyes.
It was his mother and sister I felt sorry for, the devilish predator having embedded themselves in a normal happy family. They were currently under lock and key; while the traditional mindset might suggest such people having spent so much time near Scyon would also be tainted, I truly hoped not. The rebuilding of Talsk to its former glory would require as many strong, healthy paws as possible.
The three were begging and pleading as I approached the lever that would pull the floor out from under their paws, staring back at my congregation.
“We cannot falter, we cannot fall again to corruption. We will follow the word of the First Elder. For the herd!”
For the Herd!
I heard my people below respond to my cry in turn, as I pulled the lever with a loud clunking sound, sending the three Farsul to their deaths, and keeping the herd safe once more.
—----------------------------
Audio from Fissan’s Choice Investing, recorded via espionage by a competing Nevok company
Date: 4th Feburary, 2137
“Hey hey hey, guess who it is? It’s your favourite Fissan, and I know you’re gonna love me even more when I tell you what I’ve got on the market.”
…
“Trust me, you’re gonna want to invest in this as soon as you see what I’ve got. Heck, if I was in this business of investing myself instead of selling leads, I’d 100% be snapping up this clear money maker.”
…
“Ok, so it’s a bar. Yes I know, the industry is down in the toilet since the scorched predators arrived, but look at the numbers I sent you. Yep, those are real, last month's figures. “The Happy Flowerbird”, used to be a speciality bar, has a rare liquor collection. Even has one of the few remaining bottles of Thafki wine that’s been appreciating nicely in value.”
…
“Yeah, that’s not the main draw though. The bar was turned into a pro-human venue. Cornered the entire market in the area and is making all the money right now from the nearby refugee centre.”
…
“Yes yes, I hate them as much as you do, but you don’t have to love someone to take their money. You see those numbers, and those numbers aren’t even half what you could make. This guy missed so many tricks, there is so much more money left on the table.”
…
“Well, the owner died and the kids want to sell quickly, you can offer them 85% value and I think they’ll take it. From their perspective, it’s a nice little inheritance and they aren’t going to want to spend that much effort getting full value.”
…
“I don’t think the predators killed him, let me go double check… nope, was found hanging from the neck in his house, depressing suicide note, yadda yadda yadda.”
…
“Even if he was tainted, you don't have to interact with them. That’s why you hire people, and you can slash the staff budget, this guy was paying way too much for the staff.”
…
“You hire predator-diseased patients. With the facilities being shut down a bunch of them are looking for work. Pay them minimum wage, who else is gonna hire them? And who cares if the humans snack on a few of their own predatory kind?”
…
“That's the best thing about the numbers: the guy was severely undercharging. Guess what percentage your average human drink is?”
…
“Lower…”
..
“Way lower…”
…
“5%.”
…
“Not joking, it's basically soda! You water it down and still charge full price! Higher than full price!”
…
“Well, where else are they going to go? Who else would be crazy enough to own a pro-predator bar?”
…
“Now you're seeing it, this is a business opportunity of a lifetime: dirt cheap employees, captive audience, high margins.”
…
“I knew you'd see it my way. I'll send over the paperwork, you're going to make so much money from the predators.”
—-------------
Memory Transcript: Firdon, Geneva Project Engineer.
Date: [standardized human time] January 31st, 2137
With a single number, I trapped humanity beneath the stars.
I looked at the document I just typed, my paws moving over the strange human-created keypad as I finished writing. It didn't look like an influential document, just a bland paper written to explain certain FTL engineering concepts within the current framework of human understanding.
But its impact would be felt for generations.
I looked around the room I was sitting in, a simple lab, empty as I was the last one still working. The team I worked with were a diverse bunch: various ex-federation members all brought together with the same goal: to give humanity the tools they needed to catch up and win this war.
A goal I was still committed to, even with my sabotage. The humans would still be able to bring peace amongst the stars with the information I had provided.
The main difficulty in FTL was calculating how to move through space without hitting anything. Even a slight difference during warp would cause catastrophic events as atoms interacted with other atoms, tearing the laws of physics asunder. This was why early FTL technologies were so slow: because this calculation takes time. Or at least it did, until the Harrow Constant.
The Harrow Constant was a breakthrough in FTL knowledge and technology, increasing the speed of engines by a whole 25%. A highly complicated number that mathematically used the impact of faster-than-light particles upon the universe around them to ensure that there would be no collisions. It was currently a 68-digit number, with the last two having been calculated and added to the constant a mere 3 years ago, although anything past 21 digits was excessive and already calculated the position of surrounding space to less than an atom’s width.
The paper I had just written explained this, how to use it, and how to theoretically calculate the constant themselves, all within humanity's current understanding of the universe. It was all mathematically correct, apart from the constant itself. Digit 18 was a 3 instead of an 8.
I thought back to why I’d originally turned traitor to the Federation. I believed that the humans would create a better universe for my family to live in, that was why I decided to go against everything I’d ever been taught and aided the humans with their FTL knowledge. It was ironic: I still believed in the humans doing just that, it was just unfortunate that my family would not be part of this new universe.
When the humans had locked Talsk in its cage, I had begged for them to get my family out. I’d called human after human, anyone I could think of who would listen. In the end, none of it mattered. The cage was fitted and those I did everything for remained inside. I’d been given promises that at the end of the war, they’d get them out. That frankly wasn’t enough, not after what I’d given them in return, for no real reward.
I knew what was going to happen next. They’d check the paper, find that all the science matches up, and then start implementing it. There was no way they could fully calculate the constant on their own without spending years they didn’t have. So they’d take it as truth. Nobody else would notice, nobody memorized the number past 6 digits, because why would you? And it would work… most of the time.
More than most of the time. 17 digits of correctness worked for most cases. The humans would get their faster ships, and be able to keep up with the Kolshians and the Arxur in the war. But every now and then, less than 1 in 500 times… something would go wrong. Catastrophically wrong. Not enough to hurt the war effort, but enough that people would notice that human ships… are wrong. Modern FTL ships never had these kinds of errors.
Maybe the UN would eventually work it out after a few large-scale failures. Maybe they wouldn’t. The number of things you’d check before even thinking about the constant is… monumentally high, and even then you’d check it against the base research paper: the paper I had just written. I even had plausible deniability if they ever worked out the paper was wrong: a 3 looks very much like an 8 in human script.
But humans would see space travel as… dangerous. Over 200 years ago there was a disaster surrounding a new type of technology, the Hindenburg disaster. Even now, the same technology is culturally considered… wrong, and risky. The same humans who will jump out of an aeroplane with nothing but a parachute were given cultural harm that still lasts to this day.
A cultural harm that they will gain from FTL travel on human-created engines. A paranoia that no other species will get. With a single number, I will lock humanity beneath the sky using their own fears.
I don’t blame humans for doing what they did. Maybe the Farsul don’t deserve to explore the galaxy after what we did to the rest of the Federation. However, after what humans did to my family…
They didn’t deserve to either.
—------------------------
Memory Transcript: Talala, Worried Mother.
Date: [standardized human time] October 19th, 2136
I watched the TV fitfully, seeing the destruction and devastation that had been done to the pred– human planet. Cities were destroyed in an instant, rubble as far as the eye could see.
I held the pad in one hand, gripped tight in my wing, fearfully and desperately waiting for any kind of information, any contact. I could still see the last message sent my way by my son, a single statement sent three days ago.
“Everything is about to start. Don't worry too much, I'll be safe with the humans. I love you both, contact you soon.”
Three months ago, everything had changed and a new sapient predator species had entered the galactic scene, one that claimed compassion and empathy. Frankly, I had nothing against them, no matter how much their visage terrified me.
What I did have a problem with, was the war the humans had sparked. Even though it wasn't their fault, I couldn't help but dislike them for the trouble they caused.
“He'll be alright, the humans won and he's a good pilot.”
My husband sat on the perch next to me, his wings wrapped around my body comfortingly, staring at the same two screens that I was. I knew he was just as worried as my own frantic thoughts, but was putting on a tough face for my sake.
I had a single son, Zathsim, the finest Krakotl a mother could ask for. Brave, kind-hearted, and loved to fly. That was one of my greatest guilts as I watched him grow up, knowing the heavy gravity of Venlil Prime stopped Zathsim from truly being free. Not that I had much choice in the matter.
I could still remember the first time we went to the arcade and he tried a VR fighter simulator, the glee emanating from his feathers as the pure freedom of flight was given to him, unrestrained from the weight of the place we called home.
That desire for freedom had never left Zathsim, and that as well as a desire to protect people pushed him to join the Space Corps. This wasn't the first time I desperately watched the news hoping nothing would hurt my little hatchling. Every time an Arxur raid would happen I knew he'd be up there, protecting us. Every time I prayed to Inatala that Zathsim would be led home safely.
But this time was worse.
“Why did he go, they weren't forcing people to join the defence fleet, why would he make such a choice?”
He'd gone to Earth to protect us, to protect our new predatory friends, and said it was something he needed to do. Going against not the mindless Arxur, but the fleets of Nishtal, against captain Kalsim himself.
Humanity had somehow won, but at a terrible price, and were now under the cruel claw of the Arxur. All I could do was think about was my poor child stuck on a planet, now swarming with greys, hoping that he would return home safe, hoping for any information at all.
“Zathsim is your son, through and through. He saw something he had to change, and had to fully dive into it, damned the danger or consequences.”
I knew what he was talking about. It was why we were here on Venlil Prime and not Nishtal. I had discovered corruption within the ranks of our local Exterminators, taking bribes to use the arm of the law against business competitors. I’d tried to get the word out via the small news organisation I’d worked for. In the end, after Predator Disease claims and investigations, I had been forced to flee Nishtal to a place where the Exterminator’s guild wouldn’t follow, the “weakest” race in the Federation.
I sat there next to my husband, as both of us were embraced in each other's wings, watching the news continue to report on the Earth situation. They were saying that the Arxur weren’t invading, that they were aiding without demanding anything in return. I knew such a thing was a lie, but part of me wanted to grab onto that piece of hope, anything to increase the chance that Zathsim was ok.
A knock sounded on the door, a banging sound that caused me to jump. A loud heavy foreboding noise demanded I leave the perch to attend to this new visitor. Slowly I moved through the darkened rooms to open the front door, a moment to get away from my thoughts as my husband followed slowly behind.
A pred- human was standing there. From the UN, face mask on and wearing the blue military pelts; neatly pressed and maintained, holding their hat in their left hand. I felt my feathers bristle in fear, but not because of the predatory gaze hidden behind the mask, but something darker, something far worse that seemed to hang in the air around them.
“Is this Talala and Barsim?”
His voice was sad and solemn, as the deep tones of the predator asked the simple question. I stumbled with my words for a moment before answering.
“Yes? W-what is this about?”
There was another pause, the human taking a second to swallow before softly speaking once again, tearing my world apart.
“The UN regrets to inform you that your son, Zathsim, was killed in action during the defence of Earth…”
—--------------------------
Memory Transcript: Dr. Nikonous, Anti-cure Researcher
Date: [standardized human time] February 6th, 2137
I stared down at the molecular structure, watching it slowly interact with the genetic material, seeing the artificial creation start to bind in the way that I expected. It was nice to see an actual improvement to my work, after the many years in which the Federation had sabotaged what I was doing.
It turns out I had been inadvertently working towards reversing the Federation’s gene edits long before the humans. I’d noticed the condition in the Gojid, where contamination of food could lead to death, and had set my life’s work to fix it. Even with the Federation’s sabotage against my work, my head start on the…. “Cure-cure” as the humans were calling it, was invaluable to stopping the allergic reaction to meat-based proteins.
I gave a stretch as I noticed the late hour, feeling my spine pop under the heavy gravity of Venlil Prime. The lab was mostly empty, all but the Venlil, my closest friend Revel, having gone home half a claw earlier. I placed the samples back into storage, glad to know that they wouldn’t be destroyed any time soon. Intellectually, I had never been better since the revelations from Chief Nikonous. My lab was now fully funded, shiny and new, everything I could ever wish for.
I was having other issues, however.
“Well, I’m heading off for the paw. Gonna go grab something to eat and try the new human restaurant that just opened up if you wanna join me, Revel.”
I looked over at the Venlil who sat in the seat opposite me. While working on my impossible task to cure the Gojid meat allergy all these years he had been one of my closest friends, a fellow scientist who had been brought onto the cause by myself. At least… he had been my closest friend.
He glanced up for a moment, staring me straight in the eyes with a neutral expression on his face, his tail twitching with slight annoyance.
“No, I’m good. I’m going to finish some stuff up here.”
I felt myself slump with the dejection, something I’d gotten used to often enough over the last few months. Everything had changed since Nikonous, my namesake, my uncle had let slip the true evil of the Kolshian government. It had then gotten worse with the revelations from Talsk, and what they had done to the Venlil people.
I pressed forward again, wanting to do anything with someone, desperately wanting to have at least some semblance of a herd again. Hoping for any way to move past the rejection and isolation.
“I mean, we don’t have to get food. I heard the local bar got a few human board games in, so once you’re finished here we can-”
“Just stop, ok?”
Revel interrupted my invitation with a scowl on his face, tail now more animated in anger as he stared at me.
“I work with you because I have to, but I don’t want to do things with you or pretend as if we’re part of the same herd. I don’t like you. Stop trying to pretend everything is fine and normal because it isn’t.”
I felt as if I’d been punched in the face, despair running through my body as I felt my eyes start to water. I knew something was wrong, especially since Revel had been avoiding me completely over the last two months, but hearing it aloud hurt.
“But we’ve known each other for years… Revel, you’re my friend. Don’t tell me that you’re also blaming me as well.”
“Was. Was your friend. Before I knew what kind of a person you were.” The accusation was thrown out with his harsh words and sharp tone. “I don’t know how you managed to convince the humans, but I’m not buying your ridiculous lie that you didn’t know. You just so happened to already be working on the problem associated with the big secret conspiracy, and you’re literally related to Nikonous, by name and blood. I know it might be hard for a Kolshian to believe it, but I’m not stupid just because I’m not a crippler.”
My eyes started to drip silent tears as the words were shouted out at me. It wasn't the meanest thing someone had said to me over the past few months, but coming from Revel made it hurt that much more.
“But I didn't know, I'm begging you I-”
“Just shut it. Save your Feddie lies for someone who'll believe them, Nikonous.”
The last word was spoken with venom, a reminder of who I shared my name with, the evil my namesake had done. With this final rebuff, I physically recoiled, opening my mouth to say anything in response before being unable to find the words.
I waited for a few more moments, hoping my once friend would say something, anything, but Revel just continued to glare at me until I finally gave up. I ran, exiting the lab as fast as I could, slinking away and out into the streets of Venlil Prime.
Even in public, things didn't get much better for me. The sidewalks were bustling, groups of Venlil, Gojid and even humans making their way through the city. But I was alone, the herds around me going out of their way to isolate and exclude me if I tried to naturally join them. Not that this was anything new: a herd of one was my new reality over the last few months.
I stumbled over the soft pavement as an outstretched paw caused me to lose my footing, barely standing upright as I nearly fell to the ground. Cruel muted laughter and whispered insults were thrown at me. I heard and saw it all, completely alone even in this busy city.
I paused for a moment as I finally reached my small abode, staring at the front door, a simple metal entryway. Exactly where I left it earlier this paw, but now adorned with a new ‘decoration’: Spray painted in bright orange, a giant single word written in Venlilese.
“CRIPPLER”.
With a broken soul, I entered my home, closing the door behind myself to a world that hated me for something I didn’t do. An empty living room for someone with an empty heart and an empty herd. The absolute hopelessness of it all overwhelmed me, a situation I had no way of fixing that wasn’t my fault. I sat on the floor in the middle of the room, curled up into a ball and started to sob.
Alone.
—----------------------
Memory Transcript: Estala*, Prestige Exterminator, Human Tactics Advisor.*
Date: [standardized human time] April 7th, 2137
“So what are you going to do about it? You say you’re here to help, but practically everyone at the centre has been harassed by you silver-suited goons! Can barely walk down some streets without being threatened with death!”
I looked on at the masked human standing in front of me as they continued to shout in my direction. I couldn’t see his features but I could tell that he was full of rage. Probably reasonable rage if his story and the story of so many other humans were true.
“I’m sorry the guild has done these things to you and other humans. We’re working tirelessly to root out elements still stuck in Federation thinking.”
That had been my life for the last two months: training, investigations, rooting out those who wouldn't get with the times. Half of the reason we were going through a personnel problem was due to the hundreds of exterminators we'd fired, and in many cases criminally charged.
“Yeah suuuuure, investigate yourselves, no conflict of interest there! ‘We see no problems with our officer's actions in setting fire to someone’...”
“That's not fair, I'm… “ I paused for a moment as I felt an annoyance at the accusation, my feathers flaring out momentarily before I took a deep breath to calm down.
“Look, we're trying to change, it just takes time. Take my personal number, if you want to report or talk about anything I will respond, no matter the time of day.”
I handed over one of the little pre-printed strips of card with my details written on the side in human English, watching as the man took it from me. I could tell even through the mask the human was glaring in my direction.
“Whatever. No idea why I’m even talking with the SS here.”
I watched as he walked away grumbling, feeling despair at the general… enormity of the task ahead of me. I truly believed that most Exterminators were good people who just wanted to protect those around them, but removing a lifetime of Federation corruption and lies wasn’t a small or easy task. Stories of Exterminator harassment or even occasionally worse had been most of what I’d heard about today.
I looked around at the stalls I had set up in the middle of Dayside City, a handful of other Exterminators also manning the desks. An outreach program, providing information for any curious humans, posters and signs displaying a variety of new initiatives.
It was nice seeing everything laid out in such a manner: the changes made to banning flamethrowers, advertising hiring positions specifically focused on human applicants, as well as some important information such as “Don’t pet the shadestalkers, they are dangerous”. The number of humans killed attempting to “tame” the predators was…. More than zero.
I looked across the aisle to Joseph manning his singular stall as part of the event, a grouping of children of various species looking, fawning and petting the kittens my human friend had brought along. At least someone was having fun, as Joseph and the other humans seemed to take great enjoyment in coddling the tiny feral predators like a child. I, frankly, couldn’t stand them, although from what I gathered their introduction as a pest repellant in farms had been a huge success.
I could hear Joseph talking to them about pet ownership on Skalga. The Exterminator’s guild had to accept that humans had brought their feral pets along with them as loved companions, so most reasonable districts had taken a… blind eye approach. They would be left alone provided no one was endangered. The other option would involve the humans hating us and keeping them hidden, adding more danger. It was far more preferable to teach the humans how to be good owners on a planet where their pets were legitimately dangerous to certain species.
I sighed and slumped over my stand. It all just felt… too much. Hearing every problem, seeing every issue, and trying to overcome every challenge that remained while being fought by all of society every step of the way. Humans hated me because as a Krakotl Exterminator, I represented everything old and bad with the federation. Anti-predator groups hated me because as a force for pro-reform, I represented everything new that had appeared with the humans.
I’d just like things to be a bit simpler for once.
“What’s wrong Estie? I thought this kind of thing would be what you lived for meeting new people and resisting the urge to adopt all these adorable kitties and become a crazy cat Krakotl…”
I looked up from my slump of despair, seeing Joseph having wandered over in my moment of tiredness, a kitten still in his arms. I gave another sigh.
“It’s just… it feels like trying to change everyone’s opinion is a flight against the wind, and there’s just so much to fix in the Exterminators, both in actuality and perceptions. It’s a bit tiring.”
“Look, to humans the Exterminators are a Federation creation that sets cute animals on fire, is directly linked to the Predator Disease facilities, and has many members who have spent the last 6 odd months harassing humans.”
I squinted at Joseph in confusion, tilting my head at the human’s strange attempt to console me.
“If you are trying to make me feel better, this is isn’t working.”
“My point is that these feelings and views don’t change overnight. Less than 8 months ago every exterminator manning these desks, including you, would be perfectly happy to set me on fire. Heck, a year ago we didn't even know aliens existed. I see the changes you're making, and they’re working, it's just going to take time to implement and time for people to see that.”
Joseph was right of course. Every complaint and insult was just a symptom of a broken system that still wasn’t fixed, and wouldn’t be fixed for some time.
“It just sucks in the meanwhile, I guess.”
“You could try petting a kitty. That makes everyone feel better.”
I flared out my feathers in worry at that statement.
“I don’t know how humans see a feral predator as ‘cute’.”
Joseph in response gave a mock gasp of shock, wrapping his hands around the ears of the cat in his arms.
“Nooo, don’t listen to her! You are an adorable little fluffykins and we will eventually win Estala over with your power of cuteness!”
I couldn’t help but chuckle at that, laughing as Joseph returned to the pups and children who were still playing with the human pets. I did feel better, my friend always knew what to say to make me feel better.
I glanced back at the crowd, Venlil and humans, many looking in our direction as they passed by, a few pointing or talking amongst themselves as they walked on. One started to make their way towards us, a human, unmasked, looked to be a young adult woman. She looked…
Wrong.
There was something about her, the way she… walked? The way she glanced around from side to side as she broke from the crowds. Predatory, wrong, flaring every instinct in my mind that this wasn’t right. I moved forward, away from the stands to intercept her, trying to shake the feeling that something was off.
“Hi, can I help you? We’ve got information on the changes happening to the guild and…”
I trailed off as the human looked at me, a gaze filled with anger, with hate, leaving me speechless as those forward-facing eyes were filled with bloodlust, driving fear deep into my soul.
“This is for Earth, you genocidal fascist!”
She raised her hand, holding a device, her jacket opening up as she did so showing something strapped to her body. It took me a few moments to realize what it was. Ever since the memorial bombing the UN had made sure all authorities on Skalga could recognize what I was seeing: an explosive device.
Time slowed down, each second ticking by as if minutes were passing. I didn’t think, I didn’t put together a plan. I didn’t consider the people around me: Joseph and his kittens with the children, or even the other Exterminators; good people sat in the stalls around me. I just acted, the first initial thought that came to my mind. I tackled her to the ground and covered her with my body.
[WARNING: Memory transcription may be invalid or missing pieces due to the following error codes
X0GW12: Severe physical trauma.
For more information on error codes and fixing them, visit:
fctp://fwn.memory-tek.fs.fed/Memory-Tek-5000-error-codes#howToFix]
There was no noticeable explosion. Just sudden Pain. Just sound, just force.
There were no thoughts or conscious decisions as the world became a confusing cascading series of sights and sounds as my body tried to make sense of what had just happened, a jumbled brain trying to put together the clues and failing to do so. All I could tell for certain was I hurt. Badly.
I was on the floor. I could see my wing outstretched in front of me. I tried to move it, to get up, to see what had happened. Nothing was working. It took a few seconds to realize the issue: The wing was lying several feet away, a mangled limb covered in purple gore.
Stand up.
I wanted to, I needed to. Others around me might be in danger, might be in trouble, but all there was was pain. I tried to cry out for help, but nothing but a waterfall of blood escaped my beak as it filled my lungs with each attempted breath, splitting and coughing as I tried to breath through the purple liquid.
The rest of the world faded into nothing but pain, a single spot of light in my vision representing my entire world. The chaos around me, the shouting and people frantically going to and fro didn’t matter, all that existed was that spot of light.
Then a figure stepped out of that light. A Krakotl, someone I hadn’t seen for over 10 years, an impossible figure, someone I’d greatly missed for so long.
“Dad?”
“Shhhh… it’s going to be ok my little egg. It’s going to be ok.”
I could feel his wings embracing my broken body, hands gently running over my head, as if I was a child waking from a nightmare after watching one too many episodes of ‘The Exterminators’ again, softly humming a tune as he did so.
“I need to get up. Others might be hurt, I need to help them, I can’t just stay here Dad.”
“That’s for others to do now. It’s time for you to rest. You’ve done your part.”
All I could see was his face, the man who had raised me, the man I’d found murdered in my own home, holding and comforting me as the rest of the world continued to fade away and become irrelevant.
“Did I do well? Did I do enough?”
I watched my dad give a happy head tilt as he stared down at me, eyes soft, filled with love and care just as I always remembered.
The pain, the struggle against the Federation systems, the guilt of what I’d done, the lonely nights at the orphanage and the attempt afterwards in the Exterminators to make sure no one else ever felt that hurt themselves.
None of it mattered anymore. All that mattered was the safety and warmth from the loving embrace of a parent to his daughter.
“Both of us are so proud of you Estala, we always have been.”
[WARNING: Memory transcription terminated due to error code:
APTT000: Death of subject. Reason: Death of subject via blood loss and organ damage
For more information on error codes and fixing them, visit:
fctp://fwn.memory-tek.fs.fed/Memory-Tek-5000-error-codes#howToFix]
—-----------------
Wanna see what would have happened if you picked heads? Check that out here.
2024.03.30 18:18 zigioman [S] [USA-NY] Big Sale, Nikon Lenses, Film cameras, TLR accessories, Local to NYC
I'm moving apartments and want to get rid of some equipment I no longer use. Prices are net, will add shipping + paypal fees. No extra cost for local meetup in NYC. Timestamp: https://imgur.com/a/KcPoEId Sample photos for interchangable lenses were taken on my Fuji xt4 Sample photos for fixed lens cameras were taken with the camera
Kiev 3 and Scratched lens - $30 Shutter speed are accurate as far as I can tell. Lens had a badly damaged coating. See photos https://imgur.com/a/q7pRItp ~ ~ Russian Contax mount lenses - $50 together Jupiter-8 & Jupiter R 12 Both in good condition. I don't have a camera that can use them so I don't have any sample photos https://imgur.com/a/04p09JR ~ ~ Nikon Extension Tubes - $10 for all Work with Nikon F and F2 era bodies (pre-AI) PK-1 8mm, PK-2 14mm, PK-3 27.5mm, PN-1 52.5mm ~ ~ Rollei Bay 1 filters - $45 each Parawaltzar No 2 Rolleinar No 1 w/ case Metal Rollei Hood w/ case Work well on all Bay 1 cameras (Rolleiflex, Yashica 124, etc) https://imgur.com/a/esPtlkb ~ ~ Fuji 18-135 - $300 Mark on the front element but it doesn't affect image quality. The focusing ring is a little loose. https://imgur.com/a/6pQ7jDp ~ ~ Nikkor Auto 35mm f1.4 - $125 Older style F mount lens, has been converted to AI-s https://imgur.com/a/OHf8cd2 ~ ~ Nikkor 50mm f1.4 - $125 Nice lens, great bokeh, but now I have the f1.2 https://imgur.com/a/EDfOcoO ~ ~ Nikkor 85mm f2 - $125 Nice lens, great bokeh (and sunstars) but now I have the f1.4 https://imgur.com/a/UMSP5Da ~ ~ Nikon FE with 50mm f1.8 and DR-3 para-scope attachment - $200 My first analog camera purchase. I'm sad to let it go but it's just been sitting on my shelf since I bought a F3. Lens has been recently serviced and has the smoothest focus of anything I've used. I replaced the light seals and it's light tight but the back door does tend to stick a little. https://imgur.com/a/7FmIJin ~ ~ Asahiflex with 2.4 - $100 Nice camera, beautiful lens but it's too slow for the style of shooting I do https://imgur.com/a/hkhp64X ~ ~ Olympus Pen D - $100 Great little half frame camera. The selenium meter is still accurate enough to use. https://imgur.com/a/LcpV3sk ~ ~ Rollei XF35 with case, strap, and manual - $100 Nice compact camera. Auto exposure but manual focus. The battery was replaced two months ago. Bulb mode does not work. https://imgur.com/a/MqptSOa ~ ~ 5 per row 35mm negative holders - Free with any item PrintFile acid free negative holders. I bought the wrong size. ~ ~ Fuji Superia 1600 - $25 per roll 2017, 2019 expiration ~ ~ Kodak Focus-Free plastic camera - $10
submitted by zigioman to photomarket [link] [comments]
Kiev 3 and Scratched lens - $30 Shutter speed are accurate as far as I can tell. Lens had a badly damaged coating. See photos https://imgur.com/a/q7pRItp ~ ~ Russian Contax mount lenses - $50 together Jupiter-8 & Jupiter R 12 Both in good condition. I don't have a camera that can use them so I don't have any sample photos https://imgur.com/a/04p09JR ~ ~ Nikon Extension Tubes - $10 for all Work with Nikon F and F2 era bodies (pre-AI) PK-1 8mm, PK-2 14mm, PK-3 27.5mm, PN-1 52.5mm ~ ~ Rollei Bay 1 filters - $45 each Parawaltzar No 2 Rolleinar No 1 w/ case Metal Rollei Hood w/ case Work well on all Bay 1 cameras (Rolleiflex, Yashica 124, etc) https://imgur.com/a/esPtlkb ~ ~ Fuji 18-135 - $300 Mark on the front element but it doesn't affect image quality. The focusing ring is a little loose. https://imgur.com/a/6pQ7jDp ~ ~ Nikkor Auto 35mm f1.4 - $125 Older style F mount lens, has been converted to AI-s https://imgur.com/a/OHf8cd2 ~ ~ Nikkor 50mm f1.4 - $125 Nice lens, great bokeh, but now I have the f1.2 https://imgur.com/a/EDfOcoO ~ ~ Nikkor 85mm f2 - $125 Nice lens, great bokeh (and sunstars) but now I have the f1.4 https://imgur.com/a/UMSP5Da ~ ~ Nikon FE with 50mm f1.8 and DR-3 para-scope attachment - $200 My first analog camera purchase. I'm sad to let it go but it's just been sitting on my shelf since I bought a F3. Lens has been recently serviced and has the smoothest focus of anything I've used. I replaced the light seals and it's light tight but the back door does tend to stick a little. https://imgur.com/a/7FmIJin ~ ~ Asahiflex with 2.4 - $100 Nice camera, beautiful lens but it's too slow for the style of shooting I do https://imgur.com/a/hkhp64X ~ ~ Olympus Pen D - $100 Great little half frame camera. The selenium meter is still accurate enough to use. https://imgur.com/a/LcpV3sk ~ ~ Rollei XF35 with case, strap, and manual - $100 Nice compact camera. Auto exposure but manual focus. The battery was replaced two months ago. Bulb mode does not work. https://imgur.com/a/MqptSOa ~ ~ 5 per row 35mm negative holders - Free with any item PrintFile acid free negative holders. I bought the wrong size. ~ ~ Fuji Superia 1600 - $25 per roll 2017, 2019 expiration ~ ~ Kodak Focus-Free plastic camera - $10
2024.03.24 09:37 Careless-Wish-4563 Type her
She is a well acclaimed photographer, though she is also a housewife. She has three daughters, who all went to my elementary school. I recall that she volunteered as an art docent when we were in elementary school. I also remember that her youngest daughter (xNFP, members here guessed INFP) struck me as being quite bratty and spoiled when I had an afterschool STEM program (seemed like she was quite comfortable with whining to her mother about different things. I remember getting the impression that her mother wasn’t good, at least back then, at correcting this sort of behavior - however, I have the impression that her youngest daughter “calmed down” over the years, so it is possible the mother eventually started making an effort to correct this.) I have also always thought that her youngest daughter is her favorite child, although I don’t have the impression that there is ongoing blatant favoritism. Her pictures have been featured in American Photo and Nikon World. She was born in 1970, and is what I regard as average looking (has not aged terribly/awfully well in my opinion, although she is thin and since she has three daughters, I feel that it is admirable that she is still at a healthy weight. She does tend to sometimes post sweets she’s baked.)
I suspect that her husband is an ISTP, although I’m not sure. He could really be anything, likely an xSTx type, but idk. He does look cold to me, and it does seem that the family is well off (she has an Instagram account called “bored housewife” where she posts pictures of the vacations they’ll sometimes take, of fancy places they go out to eat at, etc.) She is apparently a self taught photographer (learned her craft when she and her husband were traveling cross country before having children.) Her middle daughter (ENFP) has a Tik Tok wherein she complains about how her father says Native Americans are “lazy” and need to “work hard like everyone else” (the ENFP middle child suggests in the video that the mom claims they are “on her side” when discourse breaks out.)
These are captions from her Flickr account, in 2007 and 2008:
“this is what you get when you hand your camera over to the drunk co-worker.
Who, btw, I shouldn't have been allowed to talk to... She went on and on about how wonderful and great their trip to Syndey/Singapore/Tokyo was ~ how great the 5 star hotels were, how awesome it was to fly business class, how great the sushi was and the saki.... Mike came home from the trip and said, "yeah, it was okay (though he was really impressed with the toilets in Japan)"... (I stayed home with the three kids, alone, for 3 weeks... I'm thinking I need to reassess the payback...)”
“I tried to re-create a look for something posted in the photoshop support group. Nowhere near the look, but I liked the result. Steps I took:
1) created a duplicate layer and set it to overlay. ran a high pass filter around 4 2) merged the layers 3) created a duplicate layer and ran a paint daubs filter (brush 2, sharp 0) 4) merged the layers 5) created a duplicate layer and set it to multiply ~ opacity at 57% (my snarky old school math genius friend would like me to point out that instead of duplicating the layer you can add an adjustment layer (such as levels), do nothing to it, but set it to multiply and reduce its opacity to 57% ~ same effect but creates a smaller file size if that's an issue for you) 6) added a gradient map adjustment layer, black to white, and set the opacity to 30% 7) added a solid color adjustment layer with the color set to ac8600, set the layer to color and the opacity to 20%”
“1) I've been to 48 states. I'm missing Kentucky and Tennessee.
2) I can write backwards, so that you can hold it up to a mirror and it looks right (I discovered this talent while home from school with mono, when I was in 7th grade)
3) I sometimes put vinegar on my scrambled eggs. I love vinegar. I used to drink it straight when I was young
4) "A Prayer for Owen Meany" by John Irving used to be my favorite book. I'm not sure anymore, because I haven't read it in a long time, and when I did read it it was at a point in my life where I wanted a reason for all that was happening. (It's really hard to get past the first 50 or so pages, but once you do it's good).
5) Scoutj and I have the exact same birthday (like the year and everything!)
6) I love lip gloss. Chapstick, Burt's Bees, random tins of flavored stuff, whatever. I love it.
7) My family didn't have a car until I turned 17
8) I don't like even numbers. I like odd numbers.
9) The hardest class I took in school was a human paleontology class, with Dr. Tim White. I'm a total geek when it comes to ancient human skull discoveries, and stuff like that; it fascinates me
10) I go through periods in my life where I give up sugar. I LOVE sugar more than most anything. But occasionally I like to see if I can do it. It's extremely hard. Everything has sugar in it.
11) I believe in karma.”
“For Christmas Cate decided to write a letter to Santa, which she wouldn't let us read. So the husband told her he'd mail it from work for her... in the letter she said all she wanted for Christmas was a beautiful picture of her family, in a pretty frame.
So before we left for vacation I told her we were going to take a fancy picture and she could pick the outfits we wore. We then had it printed, bought a frame and took the whole thing with us to the Bahamas.
She was so, so, so happy when she opened it :)”
Caption: “For the husband’s Xmas party… sometimes he gets things right… like throwing the J crew catalogue at me… and telling me to go get a dress now… And not stressing about it at the last minute… like i always do… now i just need shoes… Oh, and a jacket or sweater, or some sort of wrap thing… And isn’t this a really good reason to buy some nice diamond earrings? Definitely a good reason to buy some nice diamond earrings :)”
“99/365 The night after drinking many caipirinhas, tequila and getting home at 2am because the bus I was taking home got in an accident and I was stuck on the Bay Bridge for an extra hour and a half” Caption: “There is a reason I no longer go out drinking” “Husband also slightly annoyed” “So, while he did let me sleep in” “He also let Anne run into the room 5 times, so that she could climb into the bed with me and shout MAMA”
“114/365 And thus with the husband in bed and near death (having caught the same cold she had last week), she hoped he was at least feeling like a jackass for not doing more than coming home at 6:15pm (that's early) when she called and begged for help…” (Caption: “just a wee bit irked” “that i don’t get to take sick days”)
“I tried to do someone's request and failed. I'll try again tomorrow hopefully.
The husband walked by and said "What the hell kind of picture is that?". LOL.
This is sitting in my nearly dark living room. With a super slow SS, because I was too lazy to change my settings.
And it's what we now call... blartsy :)”
View Poll
submitted by Careless-Wish-4563 to discoveryourenneagram [link] [comments]
I suspect that her husband is an ISTP, although I’m not sure. He could really be anything, likely an xSTx type, but idk. He does look cold to me, and it does seem that the family is well off (she has an Instagram account called “bored housewife” where she posts pictures of the vacations they’ll sometimes take, of fancy places they go out to eat at, etc.) She is apparently a self taught photographer (learned her craft when she and her husband were traveling cross country before having children.) Her middle daughter (ENFP) has a Tik Tok wherein she complains about how her father says Native Americans are “lazy” and need to “work hard like everyone else” (the ENFP middle child suggests in the video that the mom claims they are “on her side” when discourse breaks out.)
These are captions from her Flickr account, in 2007 and 2008:
“this is what you get when you hand your camera over to the drunk co-worker.
Who, btw, I shouldn't have been allowed to talk to... She went on and on about how wonderful and great their trip to Syndey/Singapore/Tokyo was ~ how great the 5 star hotels were, how awesome it was to fly business class, how great the sushi was and the saki.... Mike came home from the trip and said, "yeah, it was okay (though he was really impressed with the toilets in Japan)"... (I stayed home with the three kids, alone, for 3 weeks... I'm thinking I need to reassess the payback...)”
“I tried to re-create a look for something posted in the photoshop support group. Nowhere near the look, but I liked the result. Steps I took:
1) created a duplicate layer and set it to overlay. ran a high pass filter around 4 2) merged the layers 3) created a duplicate layer and ran a paint daubs filter (brush 2, sharp 0) 4) merged the layers 5) created a duplicate layer and set it to multiply ~ opacity at 57% (my snarky old school math genius friend would like me to point out that instead of duplicating the layer you can add an adjustment layer (such as levels), do nothing to it, but set it to multiply and reduce its opacity to 57% ~ same effect but creates a smaller file size if that's an issue for you) 6) added a gradient map adjustment layer, black to white, and set the opacity to 30% 7) added a solid color adjustment layer with the color set to ac8600, set the layer to color and the opacity to 20%”
“1) I've been to 48 states. I'm missing Kentucky and Tennessee.
2) I can write backwards, so that you can hold it up to a mirror and it looks right (I discovered this talent while home from school with mono, when I was in 7th grade)
3) I sometimes put vinegar on my scrambled eggs. I love vinegar. I used to drink it straight when I was young
4) "A Prayer for Owen Meany" by John Irving used to be my favorite book. I'm not sure anymore, because I haven't read it in a long time, and when I did read it it was at a point in my life where I wanted a reason for all that was happening. (It's really hard to get past the first 50 or so pages, but once you do it's good).
5) Scoutj and I have the exact same birthday (like the year and everything!)
6) I love lip gloss. Chapstick, Burt's Bees, random tins of flavored stuff, whatever. I love it.
7) My family didn't have a car until I turned 17
8) I don't like even numbers. I like odd numbers.
9) The hardest class I took in school was a human paleontology class, with Dr. Tim White. I'm a total geek when it comes to ancient human skull discoveries, and stuff like that; it fascinates me
10) I go through periods in my life where I give up sugar. I LOVE sugar more than most anything. But occasionally I like to see if I can do it. It's extremely hard. Everything has sugar in it.
11) I believe in karma.”
“For Christmas Cate decided to write a letter to Santa, which she wouldn't let us read. So the husband told her he'd mail it from work for her... in the letter she said all she wanted for Christmas was a beautiful picture of her family, in a pretty frame.
So before we left for vacation I told her we were going to take a fancy picture and she could pick the outfits we wore. We then had it printed, bought a frame and took the whole thing with us to the Bahamas.
She was so, so, so happy when she opened it :)”
Caption: “For the husband’s Xmas party… sometimes he gets things right… like throwing the J crew catalogue at me… and telling me to go get a dress now… And not stressing about it at the last minute… like i always do… now i just need shoes… Oh, and a jacket or sweater, or some sort of wrap thing… And isn’t this a really good reason to buy some nice diamond earrings? Definitely a good reason to buy some nice diamond earrings :)”
“99/365 The night after drinking many caipirinhas, tequila and getting home at 2am because the bus I was taking home got in an accident and I was stuck on the Bay Bridge for an extra hour and a half” Caption: “There is a reason I no longer go out drinking” “Husband also slightly annoyed” “So, while he did let me sleep in” “He also let Anne run into the room 5 times, so that she could climb into the bed with me and shout MAMA”
“114/365 And thus with the husband in bed and near death (having caught the same cold she had last week), she hoped he was at least feeling like a jackass for not doing more than coming home at 6:15pm (that's early) when she called and begged for help…” (Caption: “just a wee bit irked” “that i don’t get to take sick days”)
“I tried to do someone's request and failed. I'll try again tomorrow hopefully.
The husband walked by and said "What the hell kind of picture is that?". LOL.
This is sitting in my nearly dark living room. With a super slow SS, because I was too lazy to change my settings.
And it's what we now call... blartsy :)”
View Poll
2024.03.20 19:41 Kitchen_Iron_9330 D810 Infinity Focus Issue
TL;DR dropped my d810, some lenses work fine and others won’t focus to infinity, testing indicates that it’s the camera body that’s the issue
So just my luck, first day on vacation in Hawaii I fumbled my D810 w/ 17-35 attached.. major bonehead move.. It only fell a couple feet but I could tell it made a pretty solid impact with the carpeted floor. I assessed the damage and noticed it would no longer focus to infinity, but only at about ~26mm and wider. Even in manual focus mode, setting the focus all the way to the farthest end it still wouldn’t achieve infinity focus. But between ~26-35mm everything works 100% as normal. I also confirmed it’s not just an issue with the mirroviewfindediopter, the lack of infinity focus is clearly visible in liveview and in pictures and the cameras range finder recognizes it’s not in focus. Thinking it was the lens at this point, I slapped the 17-35 on my D7100 and to my surprise everything worked as normal, it would infinity focus all throughout its zoom range. So it must be the camera body?. Fortunately I brought a handful of lenses with me so I had some to test out on the D810, but this is where things get kind of weird.
17-35mm 2.8 - won’t focus to infinity at wide end
24-85 3.5-4.5 - won’t focus to infinity at wide end
50mm 1.8d - won’t infinity focus
70-200 F4 - works as normal, will infinity focus anywhere in zoom range
AF 300 F4 - works as normal
This has left me with a few thoughts and questions I’m hoping someone here can shed some light on. From my understanding, infinity focus is determined by the lens/lens mounts flange focal distance, so if nothing has changed amongst the lenses, would this mean something physically shifted on/in the camera? Like the lens mount, or even sensor itself? Is that even possible, for the sensor to shift inside the camera? And why do some lenses work and others don’t? Do the telephoto lenses I have just happen to focus a little farther past infinity than the rest of my lenses, and that’s why they work? And finally, does this sound like something a camera repair shop could tackle, or will I likely be sending the D810 into Nikon? I’ve been into photography for years but this is the first time I’m having to deal with camera damage/repairs, any input is appreciated!
submitted by Kitchen_Iron_9330 to Nikon [link] [comments]
So just my luck, first day on vacation in Hawaii I fumbled my D810 w/ 17-35 attached.. major bonehead move.. It only fell a couple feet but I could tell it made a pretty solid impact with the carpeted floor. I assessed the damage and noticed it would no longer focus to infinity, but only at about ~26mm and wider. Even in manual focus mode, setting the focus all the way to the farthest end it still wouldn’t achieve infinity focus. But between ~26-35mm everything works 100% as normal. I also confirmed it’s not just an issue with the mirroviewfindediopter, the lack of infinity focus is clearly visible in liveview and in pictures and the cameras range finder recognizes it’s not in focus. Thinking it was the lens at this point, I slapped the 17-35 on my D7100 and to my surprise everything worked as normal, it would infinity focus all throughout its zoom range. So it must be the camera body?. Fortunately I brought a handful of lenses with me so I had some to test out on the D810, but this is where things get kind of weird.
17-35mm 2.8 - won’t focus to infinity at wide end
24-85 3.5-4.5 - won’t focus to infinity at wide end
50mm 1.8d - won’t infinity focus
70-200 F4 - works as normal, will infinity focus anywhere in zoom range
AF 300 F4 - works as normal
This has left me with a few thoughts and questions I’m hoping someone here can shed some light on. From my understanding, infinity focus is determined by the lens/lens mounts flange focal distance, so if nothing has changed amongst the lenses, would this mean something physically shifted on/in the camera? Like the lens mount, or even sensor itself? Is that even possible, for the sensor to shift inside the camera? And why do some lenses work and others don’t? Do the telephoto lenses I have just happen to focus a little farther past infinity than the rest of my lenses, and that’s why they work? And finally, does this sound like something a camera repair shop could tackle, or will I likely be sending the D810 into Nikon? I’ve been into photography for years but this is the first time I’m having to deal with camera damage/repairs, any input is appreciated!
2024.03.16 00:26 Mike07P Beginner set up (with some pictures I just shot today)
 | Beginner photographer here. I did my research for a while and decided to go with the Nikon family for my first camera ever. I got the Z fc a couple weeks ago, the 55-300 is from my fiance who had it but never used it for a while and decided to get the pancake lens with polarizer but not sure if it is somewhat redundant with the already included 16-50. I went out to a local bird sanctuary and took some shots today! submitted by Mike07P to Nikon [link] [comments] |
2024.03.02 17:47 Mr_Rabenstein US-Aktien im Höhenflug! Doch was ist mit Japan und China?!
Die US-amerikanischen Aktien boomen und es scheint so, als wäre kein Ende in Sicht. Seit Anfang des Jahres hat der S&P 500, Stand 29.02.24, 7,25 % zugelegt und reist damit von einem Allzeithoch zum anderen. Dabei wurde bis jetzt auch schon die neuerdings spannende Marke von 5000 Punkten überschritten und somit lässt sich ein weiterer Meilenstein in den Geschichtsbüchern der Börse eintragen.
Der Index tendiert klar über der 50-, aber auch 200-Tageslinie, die ein Anzeichen für eine gewisse Stabilität des Indexes setzen. Grund für die schon fast astronomische Euphorie sind vor allem die positive Geschäfts- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung der USA und der Hype um die künstliche Intelligenz, die mittlerweile in aller Munde ist und auch in Europa Fuß fasst. Gerade die Big Player, besonders die Big-Tech-Unternehmen dieser Welt, profitieren enorm von der idealistischen und verträumten Zukunft der KI und planen in jeglicher Hinsicht, in diesem Bereich zu expandieren.
Nvidia, Microsoft und Meta sind Paradebeispiele für das Tragen der US-Märkte. Nicht ohne Grund sind diese Unternehmen bzw. Aktien Teil der berüchtigten „Glorreichen 7“-Allokation, die im Gegensatz zu den restlichen 493 Aktien des S&P 500-Index einen nahezu astronomischen Anstieg erfahren durften. Diese besondere Differenz wird durch den Gap der folgenden Grafik deutlich.
Denn man kann sagen: Wenn es den Amerikanern gut geht, müssen wir uns nicht zwingend Sorgen machen. Und bislang trifft das auch durchaus zu. Auch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der USA, ein allseits bekannter und leicht verständlicher Indikator für die Stabilität und das Wachstum eines Landes, scheint nicht zu schrumpfen. Stattdessen sehen wir, dass die USA auf dem besten Weg sind, stabile Umsätze zu erzielen und sich nicht davon abhalten zu lassen. Abhalten zu lassen von den negativen Stimmen, auch von Kritikern, die einen großen Einfluss auf die Finanzwelt haben und der Meinung sind, dass ein sogenanntes Soft Landing, ein sicheres Szenario für eine weiche Wirtschaftslandung, nicht in Steine gemeißelt ist.
Doch Jamie Dimon lag bislang nicht richtig mit seinem Blick auf die Wirtschaft, und als ein Außenstehender, der die ganze Zeit auf einen kräftigeren Rücksetzer wartet, um Gelder vom Seitenrand in den Markt zu schießen, fühlt man sich schon fast als ein Außenseiter an der Börse, weil man nicht die großen Kursgewinne miterlebt. Doch es gibt tatsächlich seit einigen Monaten keine direkten Abstürze oder Dips, wie man in der Börsenkultur sagt, die so ausgeprägt sind, dass man in den Markt einsteigen bzw. bereits im Depot liegende Aktien nachkaufen kann.
Derzeit schwankt die Volatilität auf dem hier angesprochenen Index S&P 500 um den Wert 13, der fast den Boden der letzten 5 Jahre bildet. Das spricht definitiv für eine niedrige Schwankungsstärke, die wiederum das Phänomen niedriger Kursrücksetzer erklärt, insofern überhaupt ein Kursrücksetzer in diesem kräftigen Bullenrun mal auftaucht.
Des Weiteren spielt auch, wie bereits angedeutet, die unangefochtene und nahezu astronomische Euphorie der Markthändler eine wichtige Rolle. Die Stimmung am Markt kann durch ein Stimmungsbarometer, wie den berüchtigten CNN Fear & Greed Index, gemessen und anschließend auf die Marktbreite angewendet werden.
Aktuell bestätigt dieser Indikator nur das, was wir an den Märkten sehen. Pure Euphorie und das Setzen grenzenloser Ziele für den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. Doch auch wenn der Indikator eine extreme Gier signalisiert, heißt das nicht, dass wir mit der Ausschöpfung unserer Euphorie am Ende sind. Und auch wenn dem so sei, können die Märkte weiter neue Rekorde erreichen. Denn es kommt nicht darauf an, ob wir nun gierig bzw. voller Euphorie sind, sondern darauf, wie lange diese Atmosphäre anhält. Mit Blick auf die Historie der letzten 2 bis 3 Monate schwebt der Wert dieses Indikators nämlich in der Kategorie der Gier bzw. Euphorie.
Und gibt es diese Gründe? Aus Sicht der meisten Börsianer nicht wirklich, weil im Moment alles für eine Fortsetzung dieses Booms spricht und selbst wenn es zu schlechten Nachrichten kommen sollte, gibt es immer noch Katalysatoren, die den Markt Euphorie und Fantasie für die Zukunft schenken! Ich sage nur KI ;)
Noch problematischer wird es, wenn man sich den Verfall von Grundstücks- und Immobilienpreisen etwas genauer ansieht: Denn seit Anfang 2022 befindet sich Chinas Immobilienmarkt in einer schweren Rezession.
Dabei liegen die Immobilienpreise in chinesischen Großstädten wie Shenzhen, Goungzhou oder Peking in etwa dreimal höher, wie beispielsweise in den Metropolen New York City oder Tokio. In Shanghai liegen die Immobilienpreise sogar mehr als viermal so hoch. Zurecht werden daher Erinnerungen an das Platzen der Immobilienblase Japans Anfang der 1990er-Jahre wach.
Durch den Verfall der Immobilienpreise waren sowohl Unternehmen als auch Privatpersonen von massiven Wertverlusten betroffen. Die Schulden können über den stetigen Anstieg ihres Immobilienbesitzes nicht länger getilgt werden, also müssen andere Vermögenswerte verkauft werden. Das Konsumverhalten geht zurück, die Leute beginnen zu sparen - auch aus Angst vor der immer höher steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit. Diese hat sich bei 16-24-jährigen in den letzten fünf Jahren auf über 20 Prozent mehr als verdoppelt.
Dieser Trend spiegelt sich auch in den Firmenbilanzen wieder: Rund ein Viertel aller chinesischen Privatunternehmen schrieb im letzten Jahr Verluste. Fünf Jahre zuvor waren es noch die Hälfte.
Dieser Plan schien zumindest vorerst die Märkte zu beruhigen, denn seitdem befinden sich Hang Seng, der CSI 300 und CSI 1000 (mit den 1.000 größten chinesischen Unternehmen) wieder im Aufwärtstrend.
Doch Kritiker warnen, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine Verschnaufpause handelt, und der Ausverkauf weiterginge, sobald die Anleger feststellen würden, dass weitere Unterstützungsmaßnahmen ausbleiben.
Tatsächlich ist auch die Senkung der Fünfjahreszinsen von letzter Woche nur ein Tropfen auf dem heißen Stein: »Die Leute wollen sich entschulden, weil die Schulden zu hoch sind für die fallenden Immobilienpreise. Dieser Faktor kann eigentlich gar nicht mit einer niedrigen Zinspolitik aufgefangen werden. [...] Auch wenn die Zinsen bei null stehen, nehme ich keinen Kredit auf, wenn ich Angst habe, dass bei mir das Vermögen noch weiter fällt.« Carsten Roemheld, Chief Financial Analyst bei Fidelity.
Es brauche daher größere Stimuli, die vor allem den fallenden Immobilienmarkt stützen müssten. Aber auch eine Woche vor dem alljährlichen Plenum des Nationalen Volkskongress gibt es keine Anzeichen für größere Konjunkturimpulse oder gar einen Reformplan:
»Es wird auf dem Nationalen Volkskongress keine politischen Paukenschläge geben, auch weil China keine guten Möglichkeiten hat, das Wachstum über seine traditionellen Kanäle aufrechtzuerhalten.«, so Logan Wright von der Rhodium Group.
Tatsächlich sprach auch Fed-Chef Powell in seinem Interview mit 60 Minutes davon, dass China sich weg von einer Wachstumsgesellschaft und hin zu einem Staat der Regulierung bewegt habe.
Laut Derek Scissors, vom American Enterprise Institute, stecke China »aus eigener Entscheidung« fest: Bei einer »jetzigen Kursänderung müsste [China] gravierende langfristige Fehler eingestehen - und das wäre [für China] unwahrscheinlich.«
Zum ersten Mal seit 35 Jahren wanderte dieser wieder auf Höchststände jenseits der 30.000er-Marke und schloss, beflügelt von den Quartalszahlen bei Nvidia, mit 39.098,68 Punkten vergangene Woche über dem alten Rekord von 1989. Dabei hat die Euphorie in Japan gleich mehrere Gründe:
Zum einen befinden sich mit Nikon und Canon zwei der drei größten Lithographiehersteller in Japan. Diese beiden Unternehmen waren im Jahr 2020 für 38 Prozent des gesamten Lithographiemarktes für die Halbleiterindustrie zuständig (die übrigen 62 Prozent entfielen auf niederländischen Konzern ASML) und beliefern sowohl den Westen als auch China mit den so dringend benötigten Maschinen zur Herstellung von Mikrochips.
Zum anderen hat auch Warren Buffet’s Bekenntnis zum japanischen Markt im letzten Jahr für einen regelrechten Boom ausländischer Investoren gesorgt: Für sie ist Japan ein Wachstumsmarkt.
Doch der wahre Hauptgrund für den Wiederaufstieg Japans liegt andernorts und ist auch jener Grund, der schon vor 35 Jahren den japanischen Markt so stark zum Florieren brachte: die Währungs- und Zinspolitik Japans.
Trotz mehrmaliger Intervenierungen am Devisenmarkt im letzten Jahr, ließ die japanische Notenbank den Leitzins unangetastet. Dieser befindet sich nun schon seit 2016 mit -0,1 Prozent auf einem historischem Tiefstand.
Der dadurch schwache Yen führt dazu, dass die japanische Exportindustrie derzeit scheinbar(!) Rekordgewinne für sich verbuchen kann. Denn in den aktuellen Jahresprognosen japanischer Unternehmen ist die Mehrheit der Gewinne auf Währungsgewinne zurückzuführen - im Falle von Toyota sprechen wir sogar von mehr als zwei Drittel.
Während Tokio also brummt, ziehen andernorts dunkle Wolken über Japan auf.
Aufgrund der schwachen Binnennachfrage rutschte das japanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt im vierten Quartal ins Minus und liegt damit nun zwei Quartale hintereinander in Negativterritorium (-3,3 % in Q3/23, -0,4 % in Q4/23). Das ist zwar nicht das erste Mal, dass Japan sich in einer Rezession befindet, wohl aber das erste Mal bei gleichzeitigem Anstieg des Nikkei-Indexes.
Warum aber scheint der japanische Aktienmarkt gegenüber der Wirtschaftslage des Landes dieses Mal so resilient zu sein? Es ist dasselbe Lied, das nahezu überall gespielt wird: KI - und der Einfluss Nvidias, der sich wie ein Schleier (auch) über die wirtschaftliche Realität Japans legt. Doch ist diese Euphorie von selbiger Fragilität geprägt, wie in den späten 1980ern, als die Bank of Japan unter einem enormen Druck stand, erstmals die Zinssätze wieder zu erhöhen.
Damals begann damit der lange Abstieg Japans und des Nikkei-Indexes und auch wenn dieses Mal die Gefahr nicht von überteuernden Grundstückspreisen zu kommen scheint, so sind durchaus Risse erkennbar: Denn über die Jahre haben sich japanische Banken massiv mit ausländischen Anleihen und Vermögenswerten eingedeckt.
Dieses gegenwärtig immer mehr ansteigende Risiko birgt enormes Explosionspotenzial: Denn um aus dem sich selbst geschaufelten Schuldengrab wieder herauszukommen, wären diese Banken gezwungen, all diese nun »wertlosen« Vermögenswerte wieder abzustoßen:
Infolgedessen würde der Markt mit Anleihen überflutet, was abermals die Kurse weiter sinken und die Renditen in die Höhe schnellen lassen würde: Eine Belastungsprobe für die ohnehin schon unter Stress stehenden Klein- und Regionalbanken in den USA.
Doch dazu müssten die japanischen Zinssätze überhaupt erst mal erhöht werden, und dann auch noch in einem Ausmaß, das groß genug sein müsste, um bei den Banken irreparable Schäden anzurichten. Im Endeffekt reden wir hier also von mehreren Erhöhungen, die nacheinander geschehen müssten. Genau das schließt der japanische Notenbankpräsident Shinichi Uchida jedoch kategorisch aus.
Auch muss sich die japanische Notenbank gut überlegen, wie sie die Inflation wieder einzudämmen gedenkt, nachdem Zinserhöhungen für Uchida keine Option darstellen.
Zu guter Letzt: Erinnert ihr euch noch an das mit Ausrufezeichen versehene »scheinbar(!)«, als ich über die japanischen Exporte schrieb?
Es wird gerne vergessen, dass Japans Exportindustrie aus mehr als nur der Halbleiter- und Automobilbranche besteht. Denn die Realität sieht leider so aus, dass die japanische Exportindustrie insgesamt sogar rückläufig ist.
China steckt dagegen nach wie vor fest in der Krise. Eine Fortsetzung des Preisverfalls chinesischer Aktien kann derzeit nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Zusätzlich ist Peking auch nicht bereit, seinen Kurs großartig zu verändern. Aller Voraussicht nach steht daher China noch ein längerer Leidensweg bevor, bis der Druck auch Peking irgendwann groß genug sein dürfte, um die so dringend benötigten Reformen auf den Weg zu bringen.
Sowohl der japanische als auch chinesische Aktienmarkt sind daher sehr mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Wer unbedingt jetzt in Aktien einsteigen will, ist am US-amerikanischen oder dem europäischen Markt eindeutig besser beraten.
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Der Index tendiert klar über der 50-, aber auch 200-Tageslinie, die ein Anzeichen für eine gewisse Stabilität des Indexes setzen. Grund für die schon fast astronomische Euphorie sind vor allem die positive Geschäfts- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung der USA und der Hype um die künstliche Intelligenz, die mittlerweile in aller Munde ist und auch in Europa Fuß fasst. Gerade die Big Player, besonders die Big-Tech-Unternehmen dieser Welt, profitieren enorm von der idealistischen und verträumten Zukunft der KI und planen in jeglicher Hinsicht, in diesem Bereich zu expandieren.
Einfluss der Big Player
Zukunft ist ein passendes Schlagwort, denn berechtigterweise zählt die Weisheit: „An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt.“ Dieses Zitat und noch kräftigere Kursanstiege treffen für die Big-Player voll und ganz ein.Nvidia, Microsoft und Meta sind Paradebeispiele für das Tragen der US-Märkte. Nicht ohne Grund sind diese Unternehmen bzw. Aktien Teil der berüchtigten „Glorreichen 7“-Allokation, die im Gegensatz zu den restlichen 493 Aktien des S&P 500-Index einen nahezu astronomischen Anstieg erfahren durften. Diese besondere Differenz wird durch den Gap der folgenden Grafik deutlich.
Stabile wirtschaftliche Entwicklung
Wie schon zuvor angedeutet, trägt auch die solide Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu dem aktuellen Boom an den amerikanischen Märkten bei. Anders als viele Börsenkritiker dachten, sehen wir nämlich durchaus eine Stabilität am Arbeitsmarkt, aber auch in der allgemeinen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, die auch ein Grundstein und Indikator für die Sicherheit an den Märkten in Europa und der ganzen Welt ist.Denn man kann sagen: Wenn es den Amerikanern gut geht, müssen wir uns nicht zwingend Sorgen machen. Und bislang trifft das auch durchaus zu. Auch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der USA, ein allseits bekannter und leicht verständlicher Indikator für die Stabilität und das Wachstum eines Landes, scheint nicht zu schrumpfen. Stattdessen sehen wir, dass die USA auf dem besten Weg sind, stabile Umsätze zu erzielen und sich nicht davon abhalten zu lassen. Abhalten zu lassen von den negativen Stimmen, auch von Kritikern, die einen großen Einfluss auf die Finanzwelt haben und der Meinung sind, dass ein sogenanntes Soft Landing, ein sicheres Szenario für eine weiche Wirtschaftslandung, nicht in Steine gemeißelt ist.
Begriff “Soft Landing” und Marktstimmung
Dazu gehört auch Jamie Dimon, der CEO von J. P. Morgan, einer der weltweit mächtigsten Banken, und deren Töne sehr an Aufmerksamkeit gewinnen. Dimon ist strikt der Meinung, und das auch schon seit längerer Zeit, dass die Bürger und vor allem Markthändler sich nicht auf die Meinung einer Soft Landing verharren sollten und auch die Märkte bei einem eintretenden Widerspruch stärker fallen können als bereits gedacht.Doch Jamie Dimon lag bislang nicht richtig mit seinem Blick auf die Wirtschaft, und als ein Außenstehender, der die ganze Zeit auf einen kräftigeren Rücksetzer wartet, um Gelder vom Seitenrand in den Markt zu schießen, fühlt man sich schon fast als ein Außenseiter an der Börse, weil man nicht die großen Kursgewinne miterlebt. Doch es gibt tatsächlich seit einigen Monaten keine direkten Abstürze oder Dips, wie man in der Börsenkultur sagt, die so ausgeprägt sind, dass man in den Markt einsteigen bzw. bereits im Depot liegende Aktien nachkaufen kann.
Niedrige Volatilität und Euphorie
Minimale Kursrücksetzer, aber beachtliche Kursgewinne – welcher Zusammenhang ist für diese Divergenz verantwortlich? In Grunde genommen ist ein entscheidender Faktor die Volatilität, die im Vergleich der letzten Jahre unter dem Durchschnitt liegt.Derzeit schwankt die Volatilität auf dem hier angesprochenen Index S&P 500 um den Wert 13, der fast den Boden der letzten 5 Jahre bildet. Das spricht definitiv für eine niedrige Schwankungsstärke, die wiederum das Phänomen niedriger Kursrücksetzer erklärt, insofern überhaupt ein Kursrücksetzer in diesem kräftigen Bullenrun mal auftaucht.
Des Weiteren spielt auch, wie bereits angedeutet, die unangefochtene und nahezu astronomische Euphorie der Markthändler eine wichtige Rolle. Die Stimmung am Markt kann durch ein Stimmungsbarometer, wie den berüchtigten CNN Fear & Greed Index, gemessen und anschließend auf die Marktbreite angewendet werden.
Aktuell bestätigt dieser Indikator nur das, was wir an den Märkten sehen. Pure Euphorie und das Setzen grenzenloser Ziele für den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. Doch auch wenn der Indikator eine extreme Gier signalisiert, heißt das nicht, dass wir mit der Ausschöpfung unserer Euphorie am Ende sind. Und auch wenn dem so sei, können die Märkte weiter neue Rekorde erreichen. Denn es kommt nicht darauf an, ob wir nun gierig bzw. voller Euphorie sind, sondern darauf, wie lange diese Atmosphäre anhält. Mit Blick auf die Historie der letzten 2 bis 3 Monate schwebt der Wert dieses Indikators nämlich in der Kategorie der Gier bzw. Euphorie.
Ausblick auf die Rallye
All das sind gute Zeichen dafür, dass wir sicherlich noch nicht am Ende dieser Rallye sind. Und warum auch, denn wir sind schließlich wieder in einem Bullenmarkt, der sich historisch gesehen durchschnittlich 22 Monate dementsprechend verhält und einen triftigen Grund bräuchte, um sich aus dieser Phase zu verabschieden!Und gibt es diese Gründe? Aus Sicht der meisten Börsianer nicht wirklich, weil im Moment alles für eine Fortsetzung dieses Booms spricht und selbst wenn es zu schlechten Nachrichten kommen sollte, gibt es immer noch Katalysatoren, die den Markt Euphorie und Fantasie für die Zukunft schenken! Ich sage nur KI ;)
China: Der wilde Ritt des roten Drachen
Während sich die US-Aktienmärkte also immer neuer Höchststände erfreuen, kämpft China gegen die Deflation: In den letzten drei Jahren verlor der Hang Seng, einer der wichtigsten Indizes Asiens, mehr als -40 Prozent seines Wertes. Im selben Zeitraum liegt auch der Shanghai-Composite-Index bei knapp -15 Prozent.Noch problematischer wird es, wenn man sich den Verfall von Grundstücks- und Immobilienpreisen etwas genauer ansieht: Denn seit Anfang 2022 befindet sich Chinas Immobilienmarkt in einer schweren Rezession.
Was war passiert?
Jahrzehntelang haben Chinas Bauträger ihre Expansion auf Pump finanziert. Während die Besorgnis aufgrund dieser starken Fremdfinanzierung durchaus vorhanden war, wurden die günstigen Kreditbedingungen weiter fortgesetzt, ohne die Gläubiger über die damit verbundenen Risiken in Kenntnis zu setzen. Im zweiten Halbjahr 2020 führte China schließlich die Politik der drei roten Linien ein, die von den Bauträgern verlangt, ihre Schulden zu reduzieren. Das brachte schließlich viele Bauträger an den Rand des Ruins.Eine Abwärtsspirale beginnt
Der chinesische Immobilienmarkt macht derzeit 21 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts Chinas aus. Anfang 2020 lag dessen Anteil noch bei knapp einem Drittel. Es kann daher nicht von der Hand gewiesen werden, dass der chinesische Immobilienmarkt einen essenziellen Anteil an der Erfolgsgeschichte Chinas hat.Dabei liegen die Immobilienpreise in chinesischen Großstädten wie Shenzhen, Goungzhou oder Peking in etwa dreimal höher, wie beispielsweise in den Metropolen New York City oder Tokio. In Shanghai liegen die Immobilienpreise sogar mehr als viermal so hoch. Zurecht werden daher Erinnerungen an das Platzen der Immobilienblase Japans Anfang der 1990er-Jahre wach.
Durch den Verfall der Immobilienpreise waren sowohl Unternehmen als auch Privatpersonen von massiven Wertverlusten betroffen. Die Schulden können über den stetigen Anstieg ihres Immobilienbesitzes nicht länger getilgt werden, also müssen andere Vermögenswerte verkauft werden. Das Konsumverhalten geht zurück, die Leute beginnen zu sparen - auch aus Angst vor der immer höher steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit. Diese hat sich bei 16-24-jährigen in den letzten fünf Jahren auf über 20 Prozent mehr als verdoppelt.
Dieser Trend spiegelt sich auch in den Firmenbilanzen wieder: Rund ein Viertel aller chinesischen Privatunternehmen schrieb im letzten Jahr Verluste. Fünf Jahre zuvor waren es noch die Hälfte.
Steht China heute vor einer Trendumkehr?
Mit dem Verbot von Shortselling und Hedgefonds, die sich dieser Praktiken bedienen, geht China einen etwas ungewöhnlichen Weg. Ende Januar wurde auch bekannt, dass Peking einen Stabilisierungsfonds im Wert von 300 Milliarden US-Dollar errichten wolle. Damit sollen vor allem heimische Aktien gekauft werden.Dieser Plan schien zumindest vorerst die Märkte zu beruhigen, denn seitdem befinden sich Hang Seng, der CSI 300 und CSI 1000 (mit den 1.000 größten chinesischen Unternehmen) wieder im Aufwärtstrend.
Doch Kritiker warnen, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine Verschnaufpause handelt, und der Ausverkauf weiterginge, sobald die Anleger feststellen würden, dass weitere Unterstützungsmaßnahmen ausbleiben.
Tatsächlich ist auch die Senkung der Fünfjahreszinsen von letzter Woche nur ein Tropfen auf dem heißen Stein: »Die Leute wollen sich entschulden, weil die Schulden zu hoch sind für die fallenden Immobilienpreise. Dieser Faktor kann eigentlich gar nicht mit einer niedrigen Zinspolitik aufgefangen werden. [...] Auch wenn die Zinsen bei null stehen, nehme ich keinen Kredit auf, wenn ich Angst habe, dass bei mir das Vermögen noch weiter fällt.« Carsten Roemheld, Chief Financial Analyst bei Fidelity.
Es brauche daher größere Stimuli, die vor allem den fallenden Immobilienmarkt stützen müssten. Aber auch eine Woche vor dem alljährlichen Plenum des Nationalen Volkskongress gibt es keine Anzeichen für größere Konjunkturimpulse oder gar einen Reformplan:
»Es wird auf dem Nationalen Volkskongress keine politischen Paukenschläge geben, auch weil China keine guten Möglichkeiten hat, das Wachstum über seine traditionellen Kanäle aufrechtzuerhalten.«, so Logan Wright von der Rhodium Group.
Tatsächlich sprach auch Fed-Chef Powell in seinem Interview mit 60 Minutes davon, dass China sich weg von einer Wachstumsgesellschaft und hin zu einem Staat der Regulierung bewegt habe.
Laut Derek Scissors, vom American Enterprise Institute, stecke China »aus eigener Entscheidung« fest: Bei einer »jetzigen Kursänderung müsste [China] gravierende langfristige Fehler eingestehen - und das wäre [für China] unwahrscheinlich.«
Japans Börse boomt
Während die Märkte in China also in der Schwebe stehen, erlebt etwas weiter östlich der japanische Aktienindex Nikkei-225 seinen zweiten Frühling:Zum ersten Mal seit 35 Jahren wanderte dieser wieder auf Höchststände jenseits der 30.000er-Marke und schloss, beflügelt von den Quartalszahlen bei Nvidia, mit 39.098,68 Punkten vergangene Woche über dem alten Rekord von 1989. Dabei hat die Euphorie in Japan gleich mehrere Gründe:
Zum einen befinden sich mit Nikon und Canon zwei der drei größten Lithographiehersteller in Japan. Diese beiden Unternehmen waren im Jahr 2020 für 38 Prozent des gesamten Lithographiemarktes für die Halbleiterindustrie zuständig (die übrigen 62 Prozent entfielen auf niederländischen Konzern ASML) und beliefern sowohl den Westen als auch China mit den so dringend benötigten Maschinen zur Herstellung von Mikrochips.
Zum anderen hat auch Warren Buffet’s Bekenntnis zum japanischen Markt im letzten Jahr für einen regelrechten Boom ausländischer Investoren gesorgt: Für sie ist Japan ein Wachstumsmarkt.
Doch der wahre Hauptgrund für den Wiederaufstieg Japans liegt andernorts und ist auch jener Grund, der schon vor 35 Jahren den japanischen Markt so stark zum Florieren brachte: die Währungs- und Zinspolitik Japans.
Trotz mehrmaliger Intervenierungen am Devisenmarkt im letzten Jahr, ließ die japanische Notenbank den Leitzins unangetastet. Dieser befindet sich nun schon seit 2016 mit -0,1 Prozent auf einem historischem Tiefstand.
Der dadurch schwache Yen führt dazu, dass die japanische Exportindustrie derzeit scheinbar(!) Rekordgewinne für sich verbuchen kann. Denn in den aktuellen Jahresprognosen japanischer Unternehmen ist die Mehrheit der Gewinne auf Währungsgewinne zurückzuführen - im Falle von Toyota sprechen wir sogar von mehr als zwei Drittel.
Während Tokio also brummt, ziehen andernorts dunkle Wolken über Japan auf.
Schattenseiten im Land der aufgehenden Sonne
Denn rein technisch gesehen, befindet sich Japan in einer Rezession.Aufgrund der schwachen Binnennachfrage rutschte das japanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt im vierten Quartal ins Minus und liegt damit nun zwei Quartale hintereinander in Negativterritorium (-3,3 % in Q3/23, -0,4 % in Q4/23). Das ist zwar nicht das erste Mal, dass Japan sich in einer Rezession befindet, wohl aber das erste Mal bei gleichzeitigem Anstieg des Nikkei-Indexes.
Warum aber scheint der japanische Aktienmarkt gegenüber der Wirtschaftslage des Landes dieses Mal so resilient zu sein? Es ist dasselbe Lied, das nahezu überall gespielt wird: KI - und der Einfluss Nvidias, der sich wie ein Schleier (auch) über die wirtschaftliche Realität Japans legt. Doch ist diese Euphorie von selbiger Fragilität geprägt, wie in den späten 1980ern, als die Bank of Japan unter einem enormen Druck stand, erstmals die Zinssätze wieder zu erhöhen.
Damals begann damit der lange Abstieg Japans und des Nikkei-Indexes und auch wenn dieses Mal die Gefahr nicht von überteuernden Grundstückspreisen zu kommen scheint, so sind durchaus Risse erkennbar: Denn über die Jahre haben sich japanische Banken massiv mit ausländischen Anleihen und Vermögenswerten eingedeckt.
Die Rückkehr der Zinsdifferenzgeschäfte
Finanziert werden diese durch die billigen Kreditraten. Doch wehe, wenn die japanische Notenbank die Zinssätze erhöht: Dann nämlich wird aus dem einträglichen Geschäft ein Fass ohne Boden. Die Zinsdifferenz würde zunächst schrumpfen und am Ende müssten diese Banken sogar noch etwas draufzahlen.Dieses gegenwärtig immer mehr ansteigende Risiko birgt enormes Explosionspotenzial: Denn um aus dem sich selbst geschaufelten Schuldengrab wieder herauszukommen, wären diese Banken gezwungen, all diese nun »wertlosen« Vermögenswerte wieder abzustoßen:
Infolgedessen würde der Markt mit Anleihen überflutet, was abermals die Kurse weiter sinken und die Renditen in die Höhe schnellen lassen würde: Eine Belastungsprobe für die ohnehin schon unter Stress stehenden Klein- und Regionalbanken in den USA.
Doch dazu müssten die japanischen Zinssätze überhaupt erst mal erhöht werden, und dann auch noch in einem Ausmaß, das groß genug sein müsste, um bei den Banken irreparable Schäden anzurichten. Im Endeffekt reden wir hier also von mehreren Erhöhungen, die nacheinander geschehen müssten. Genau das schließt der japanische Notenbankpräsident Shinichi Uchida jedoch kategorisch aus.
Japan: Weitere Risiken
Dennoch empfiehlt es sich, wachsam zu bleiben, denn wie der Fall der Aozora-Bank gezeigt hat, kann auch die Gefahr vonseiten der Vermögenswerte stammen: Nämlich dann, wenn es sich dabei um US-Gewerbeimmobilien handelt.Auch muss sich die japanische Notenbank gut überlegen, wie sie die Inflation wieder einzudämmen gedenkt, nachdem Zinserhöhungen für Uchida keine Option darstellen.
Zu guter Letzt: Erinnert ihr euch noch an das mit Ausrufezeichen versehene »scheinbar(!)«, als ich über die japanischen Exporte schrieb?
Es wird gerne vergessen, dass Japans Exportindustrie aus mehr als nur der Halbleiter- und Automobilbranche besteht. Denn die Realität sieht leider so aus, dass die japanische Exportindustrie insgesamt sogar rückläufig ist.
Fazit/tl;dr: Finger weg von asiatischen Aktien?
Der Schluss legt nahe, dass hinter dem Aufstieg des Nikkei-Indexes mehr Schein als Sein zu stecken scheint. Ein Einstieg in den japanischen Aktienmarkt soll also gut abgewogen werden. Denn nebst bekannten Imponderabilien lauern in Japan zusätzlich einige Besonderheiten.China steckt dagegen nach wie vor fest in der Krise. Eine Fortsetzung des Preisverfalls chinesischer Aktien kann derzeit nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Zusätzlich ist Peking auch nicht bereit, seinen Kurs großartig zu verändern. Aller Voraussicht nach steht daher China noch ein längerer Leidensweg bevor, bis der Druck auch Peking irgendwann groß genug sein dürfte, um die so dringend benötigten Reformen auf den Weg zu bringen.
Sowohl der japanische als auch chinesische Aktienmarkt sind daher sehr mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Wer unbedingt jetzt in Aktien einsteigen will, ist am US-amerikanischen oder dem europäischen Markt eindeutig besser beraten.
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Dieser Beitrag wurde in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Blog Börsenoptimismus verfasst.
👇 Hier 👇 geht's zum vollständigen Artikel (inkl. aller Bilder und Charts):
US-Aktien im Höhenflug! Doch was ist mit Japan und China?!
2024.03.02 17:46 Mr_Rabenstein US-Aktien im Höhenflug! Doch was ist mit Japan und China?!
Die US-amerikanischen Aktien boomen und es scheint so, als wäre kein Ende in Sicht. Seit Anfang des Jahres hat der S&P 500, Stand 29.02.24, 7,25 % zugelegt und reist damit von einem Allzeithoch zum anderen. Dabei wurde bis jetzt auch schon die neuerdings spannende Marke von 5000 Punkten überschritten und somit lässt sich ein weiterer Meilenstein in den Geschichtsbüchern der Börse eintragen.
Der Index tendiert klar über der 50-, aber auch 200-Tageslinie, die ein Anzeichen für eine gewisse Stabilität des Indexes setzen. Grund für die schon fast astronomische Euphorie sind vor allem die positive Geschäfts- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung der USA und der Hype um die künstliche Intelligenz, die mittlerweile in aller Munde ist und auch in Europa Fuß fasst. Gerade die Big Player, besonders die Big-Tech-Unternehmen dieser Welt, profitieren enorm von der idealistischen und verträumten Zukunft der KI und planen in jeglicher Hinsicht, in diesem Bereich zu expandieren.
Nvidia, Microsoft und Meta sind Paradebeispiele für das Tragen der US-Märkte. Nicht ohne Grund sind diese Unternehmen bzw. Aktien Teil der berüchtigten „Glorreichen 7“-Allokation, die im Gegensatz zu den restlichen 493 Aktien des S&P 500-Index einen nahezu astronomischen Anstieg erfahren durften. Diese besondere Differenz wird durch den Gap der folgenden Grafik deutlich.
Denn man kann sagen: Wenn es den Amerikanern gut geht, müssen wir uns nicht zwingend Sorgen machen. Und bislang trifft das auch durchaus zu. Auch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der USA, ein allseits bekannter und leicht verständlicher Indikator für die Stabilität und das Wachstum eines Landes, scheint nicht zu schrumpfen. Stattdessen sehen wir, dass die USA auf dem besten Weg sind, stabile Umsätze zu erzielen und sich nicht davon abhalten zu lassen. Abhalten zu lassen von den negativen Stimmen, auch von Kritikern, die einen großen Einfluss auf die Finanzwelt haben und der Meinung sind, dass ein sogenanntes Soft Landing, ein sicheres Szenario für eine weiche Wirtschaftslandung, nicht in Steine gemeißelt ist.
Doch Jamie Dimon lag bislang nicht richtig mit seinem Blick auf die Wirtschaft, und als ein Außenstehender, der die ganze Zeit auf einen kräftigeren Rücksetzer wartet, um Gelder vom Seitenrand in den Markt zu schießen, fühlt man sich schon fast als ein Außenseiter an der Börse, weil man nicht die großen Kursgewinne miterlebt. Doch es gibt tatsächlich seit einigen Monaten keine direkten Abstürze oder Dips, wie man in der Börsenkultur sagt, die so ausgeprägt sind, dass man in den Markt einsteigen bzw. bereits im Depot liegende Aktien nachkaufen kann.
Derzeit schwankt die Volatilität auf dem hier angesprochenen Index S&P 500 um den Wert 13, der fast den Boden der letzten 5 Jahre bildet. Das spricht definitiv für eine niedrige Schwankungsstärke, die wiederum das Phänomen niedriger Kursrücksetzer erklärt, insofern überhaupt ein Kursrücksetzer in diesem kräftigen Bullenrun mal auftaucht.
Des Weiteren spielt auch, wie bereits angedeutet, die unangefochtene und nahezu astronomische Euphorie der Markthändler eine wichtige Rolle. Die Stimmung am Markt kann durch ein Stimmungsbarometer, wie den berüchtigten CNN Fear & Greed Index, gemessen und anschließend auf die Marktbreite angewendet werden.
Aktuell bestätigt dieser Indikator nur das, was wir an den Märkten sehen. Pure Euphorie und das Setzen grenzenloser Ziele für den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. Doch auch wenn der Indikator eine extreme Gier signalisiert, heißt das nicht, dass wir mit der Ausschöpfung unserer Euphorie am Ende sind. Und auch wenn dem so sei, können die Märkte weiter neue Rekorde erreichen. Denn es kommt nicht darauf an, ob wir nun gierig bzw. voller Euphorie sind, sondern darauf, wie lange diese Atmosphäre anhält. Mit Blick auf die Historie der letzten 2 bis 3 Monate schwebt der Wert dieses Indikators nämlich in der Kategorie der Gier bzw. Euphorie.
Und gibt es diese Gründe? Aus Sicht der meisten Börsianer nicht wirklich, weil im Moment alles für eine Fortsetzung dieses Booms spricht und selbst wenn es zu schlechten Nachrichten kommen sollte, gibt es immer noch Katalysatoren, die den Markt Euphorie und Fantasie für die Zukunft schenken! Ich sage nur KI ;)
Noch problematischer wird es, wenn man sich den Verfall von Grundstücks- und Immobilienpreisen etwas genauer ansieht: Denn seit Anfang 2022 befindet sich Chinas Immobilienmarkt in einer schweren Rezession.
Dabei liegen die Immobilienpreise in chinesischen Großstädten wie Shenzhen, Goungzhou oder Peking in etwa dreimal höher, wie beispielsweise in den Metropolen New York City oder Tokio. In Shanghai liegen die Immobilienpreise sogar mehr als viermal so hoch. Zurecht werden daher Erinnerungen an das Platzen der Immobilienblase Japans Anfang der 1990er-Jahre wach.
Durch den Verfall der Immobilienpreise waren sowohl Unternehmen als auch Privatpersonen von massiven Wertverlusten betroffen. Die Schulden können über den stetigen Anstieg ihres Immobilienbesitzes nicht länger getilgt werden, also müssen andere Vermögenswerte verkauft werden. Das Konsumverhalten geht zurück, die Leute beginnen zu sparen - auch aus Angst vor der immer höher steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit. Diese hat sich bei 16-24-jährigen in den letzten fünf Jahren auf über 20 Prozent mehr als verdoppelt.
Dieser Trend spiegelt sich auch in den Firmenbilanzen wieder: Rund ein Viertel aller chinesischen Privatunternehmen schrieb im letzten Jahr Verluste. Fünf Jahre zuvor waren es noch die Hälfte.
Dieser Plan schien zumindest vorerst die Märkte zu beruhigen, denn seitdem befinden sich Hang Seng, der CSI 300 und CSI 1000 (mit den 1.000 größten chinesischen Unternehmen) wieder im Aufwärtstrend.
Doch Kritiker warnen, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine Verschnaufpause handelt, und der Ausverkauf weiterginge, sobald die Anleger feststellen würden, dass weitere Unterstützungsmaßnahmen ausbleiben.
Tatsächlich ist auch die Senkung der Fünfjahreszinsen von letzter Woche nur ein Tropfen auf dem heißen Stein: »Die Leute wollen sich entschulden, weil die Schulden zu hoch sind für die fallenden Immobilienpreise. Dieser Faktor kann eigentlich gar nicht mit einer niedrigen Zinspolitik aufgefangen werden. [...] Auch wenn die Zinsen bei null stehen, nehme ich keinen Kredit auf, wenn ich Angst habe, dass bei mir das Vermögen noch weiter fällt.« Carsten Roemheld, Chief Financial Analyst bei Fidelity.
Es brauche daher größere Stimuli, die vor allem den fallenden Immobilienmarkt stützen müssten. Aber auch eine Woche vor dem alljährlichen Plenum des Nationalen Volkskongress gibt es keine Anzeichen für größere Konjunkturimpulse oder gar einen Reformplan:
»Es wird auf dem Nationalen Volkskongress keine politischen Paukenschläge geben, auch weil China keine guten Möglichkeiten hat, das Wachstum über seine traditionellen Kanäle aufrechtzuerhalten.«, so Logan Wright von der Rhodium Group.
Tatsächlich sprach auch Fed-Chef Powell in seinem Interview mit 60 Minutes davon, dass China sich weg von einer Wachstumsgesellschaft und hin zu einem Staat der Regulierung bewegt habe.
Laut Derek Scissors, vom American Enterprise Institute, stecke China »aus eigener Entscheidung« fest: Bei einer »jetzigen Kursänderung müsste [China] gravierende langfristige Fehler eingestehen - und das wäre [für China] unwahrscheinlich.«
Zum ersten Mal seit 35 Jahren wanderte dieser wieder auf Höchststände jenseits der 30.000er-Marke und schloss, beflügelt von den Quartalszahlen bei Nvidia, mit 39.098,68 Punkten vergangene Woche über dem alten Rekord von 1989. Dabei hat die Euphorie in Japan gleich mehrere Gründe:
Zum einen befinden sich mit Nikon und Canon zwei der drei größten Lithographiehersteller in Japan. Diese beiden Unternehmen waren im Jahr 2020 für 38 Prozent des gesamten Lithographiemarktes für die Halbleiterindustrie zuständig (die übrigen 62 Prozent entfielen auf niederländischen Konzern ASML) und beliefern sowohl den Westen als auch China mit den so dringend benötigten Maschinen zur Herstellung von Mikrochips.
Zum anderen hat auch Warren Buffet’s Bekenntnis zum japanischen Markt im letzten Jahr für einen regelrechten Boom ausländischer Investoren gesorgt: Für sie ist Japan ein Wachstumsmarkt.
Doch der wahre Hauptgrund für den Wiederaufstieg Japans liegt andernorts und ist auch jener Grund, der schon vor 35 Jahren den japanischen Markt so stark zum Florieren brachte: die Währungs- und Zinspolitik Japans.
Trotz mehrmaliger Intervenierungen am Devisenmarkt im letzten Jahr, ließ die japanische Notenbank den Leitzins unangetastet. Dieser befindet sich nun schon seit 2016 mit -0,1 Prozent auf einem historischem Tiefstand.
Der dadurch schwache Yen führt dazu, dass die japanische Exportindustrie derzeit scheinbar(!) Rekordgewinne für sich verbuchen kann. Denn in den aktuellen Jahresprognosen japanischer Unternehmen ist die Mehrheit der Gewinne auf Währungsgewinne zurückzuführen - im Falle von Toyota sprechen wir sogar von mehr als zwei Drittel.
Während Tokio also brummt, ziehen andernorts dunkle Wolken über Japan auf.
Aufgrund der schwachen Binnennachfrage rutschte das japanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt im vierten Quartal ins Minus und liegt damit nun zwei Quartale hintereinander in Negativterritorium (-3,3 % in Q3/23, -0,4 % in Q4/23). Das ist zwar nicht das erste Mal, dass Japan sich in einer Rezession befindet, wohl aber das erste Mal bei gleichzeitigem Anstieg des Nikkei-Indexes.
Warum aber scheint der japanische Aktienmarkt gegenüber der Wirtschaftslage des Landes dieses Mal so resilient zu sein? Es ist dasselbe Lied, das nahezu überall gespielt wird: KI - und der Einfluss Nvidias, der sich wie ein Schleier (auch) über die wirtschaftliche Realität Japans legt. Doch ist diese Euphorie von selbiger Fragilität geprägt, wie in den späten 1980ern, als die Bank of Japan unter einem enormen Druck stand, erstmals die Zinssätze wieder zu erhöhen.
Damals begann damit der lange Abstieg Japans und des Nikkei-Indexes und auch wenn dieses Mal die Gefahr nicht von überteuernden Grundstückspreisen zu kommen scheint, so sind durchaus Risse erkennbar: Denn über die Jahre haben sich japanische Banken massiv mit ausländischen Anleihen und Vermögenswerten eingedeckt.
Dieses gegenwärtig immer mehr ansteigende Risiko birgt enormes Explosionspotenzial: Denn um aus dem sich selbst geschaufelten Schuldengrab wieder herauszukommen, wären diese Banken gezwungen, all diese nun »wertlosen« Vermögenswerte wieder abzustoßen:
Infolgedessen würde der Markt mit Anleihen überflutet, was abermals die Kurse weiter sinken und die Renditen in die Höhe schnellen lassen würde: Eine Belastungsprobe für die ohnehin schon unter Stress stehenden Klein- und Regionalbanken in den USA.
Doch dazu müssten die japanischen Zinssätze überhaupt erst mal erhöht werden, und dann auch noch in einem Ausmaß, das groß genug sein müsste, um bei den Banken irreparable Schäden anzurichten. Im Endeffekt reden wir hier also von mehreren Erhöhungen, die nacheinander geschehen müssten. Genau das schließt der japanische Notenbankpräsident Shinichi Uchida jedoch kategorisch aus.
Auch muss sich die japanische Notenbank gut überlegen, wie sie die Inflation wieder einzudämmen gedenkt, nachdem Zinserhöhungen für Uchida keine Option darstellen.
Zu guter Letzt: Erinnert ihr euch noch an das mit Ausrufezeichen versehene »scheinbar(!)«, als ich über die japanischen Exporte schrieb?
Es wird gerne vergessen, dass Japans Exportindustrie aus mehr als nur der Halbleiter- und Automobilbranche besteht. Denn die Realität sieht leider so aus, dass die japanische Exportindustrie insgesamt sogar rückläufig ist.
China steckt dagegen nach wie vor fest in der Krise. Eine Fortsetzung des Preisverfalls chinesischer Aktien kann derzeit nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Zusätzlich ist Peking auch nicht bereit, seinen Kurs großartig zu verändern. Aller Voraussicht nach steht daher China noch ein längerer Leidensweg bevor, bis der Druck auch Peking irgendwann groß genug sein dürfte, um die so dringend benötigten Reformen auf den Weg zu bringen.
Sowohl der japanische als auch chinesische Aktienmarkt sind daher sehr mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Wer unbedingt jetzt in Aktien einsteigen will, ist am US-amerikanischen oder dem europäischen Markt eindeutig besser beraten.
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Der Index tendiert klar über der 50-, aber auch 200-Tageslinie, die ein Anzeichen für eine gewisse Stabilität des Indexes setzen. Grund für die schon fast astronomische Euphorie sind vor allem die positive Geschäfts- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung der USA und der Hype um die künstliche Intelligenz, die mittlerweile in aller Munde ist und auch in Europa Fuß fasst. Gerade die Big Player, besonders die Big-Tech-Unternehmen dieser Welt, profitieren enorm von der idealistischen und verträumten Zukunft der KI und planen in jeglicher Hinsicht, in diesem Bereich zu expandieren.
Einfluss der Big Player
Zukunft ist ein passendes Schlagwort, denn berechtigterweise zählt die Weisheit: „An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt.“ Dieses Zitat und noch kräftigere Kursanstiege treffen für die Big-Player voll und ganz ein.Nvidia, Microsoft und Meta sind Paradebeispiele für das Tragen der US-Märkte. Nicht ohne Grund sind diese Unternehmen bzw. Aktien Teil der berüchtigten „Glorreichen 7“-Allokation, die im Gegensatz zu den restlichen 493 Aktien des S&P 500-Index einen nahezu astronomischen Anstieg erfahren durften. Diese besondere Differenz wird durch den Gap der folgenden Grafik deutlich.
Stabile wirtschaftliche Entwicklung
Wie schon zuvor angedeutet, trägt auch die solide Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu dem aktuellen Boom an den amerikanischen Märkten bei. Anders als viele Börsenkritiker dachten, sehen wir nämlich durchaus eine Stabilität am Arbeitsmarkt, aber auch in der allgemeinen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, die auch ein Grundstein und Indikator für die Sicherheit an den Märkten in Europa und der ganzen Welt ist.Denn man kann sagen: Wenn es den Amerikanern gut geht, müssen wir uns nicht zwingend Sorgen machen. Und bislang trifft das auch durchaus zu. Auch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der USA, ein allseits bekannter und leicht verständlicher Indikator für die Stabilität und das Wachstum eines Landes, scheint nicht zu schrumpfen. Stattdessen sehen wir, dass die USA auf dem besten Weg sind, stabile Umsätze zu erzielen und sich nicht davon abhalten zu lassen. Abhalten zu lassen von den negativen Stimmen, auch von Kritikern, die einen großen Einfluss auf die Finanzwelt haben und der Meinung sind, dass ein sogenanntes Soft Landing, ein sicheres Szenario für eine weiche Wirtschaftslandung, nicht in Steine gemeißelt ist.
Begriff “Soft Landing” und Marktstimmung
Dazu gehört auch Jamie Dimon, der CEO von J. P. Morgan, einer der weltweit mächtigsten Banken, und deren Töne sehr an Aufmerksamkeit gewinnen. Dimon ist strikt der Meinung, und das auch schon seit längerer Zeit, dass die Bürger und vor allem Markthändler sich nicht auf die Meinung einer Soft Landing verharren sollten und auch die Märkte bei einem eintretenden Widerspruch stärker fallen können als bereits gedacht.Doch Jamie Dimon lag bislang nicht richtig mit seinem Blick auf die Wirtschaft, und als ein Außenstehender, der die ganze Zeit auf einen kräftigeren Rücksetzer wartet, um Gelder vom Seitenrand in den Markt zu schießen, fühlt man sich schon fast als ein Außenseiter an der Börse, weil man nicht die großen Kursgewinne miterlebt. Doch es gibt tatsächlich seit einigen Monaten keine direkten Abstürze oder Dips, wie man in der Börsenkultur sagt, die so ausgeprägt sind, dass man in den Markt einsteigen bzw. bereits im Depot liegende Aktien nachkaufen kann.
Niedrige Volatilität und Euphorie
Minimale Kursrücksetzer, aber beachtliche Kursgewinne – welcher Zusammenhang ist für diese Divergenz verantwortlich? In Grunde genommen ist ein entscheidender Faktor die Volatilität, die im Vergleich der letzten Jahre unter dem Durchschnitt liegt.Derzeit schwankt die Volatilität auf dem hier angesprochenen Index S&P 500 um den Wert 13, der fast den Boden der letzten 5 Jahre bildet. Das spricht definitiv für eine niedrige Schwankungsstärke, die wiederum das Phänomen niedriger Kursrücksetzer erklärt, insofern überhaupt ein Kursrücksetzer in diesem kräftigen Bullenrun mal auftaucht.
Des Weiteren spielt auch, wie bereits angedeutet, die unangefochtene und nahezu astronomische Euphorie der Markthändler eine wichtige Rolle. Die Stimmung am Markt kann durch ein Stimmungsbarometer, wie den berüchtigten CNN Fear & Greed Index, gemessen und anschließend auf die Marktbreite angewendet werden.
Aktuell bestätigt dieser Indikator nur das, was wir an den Märkten sehen. Pure Euphorie und das Setzen grenzenloser Ziele für den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. Doch auch wenn der Indikator eine extreme Gier signalisiert, heißt das nicht, dass wir mit der Ausschöpfung unserer Euphorie am Ende sind. Und auch wenn dem so sei, können die Märkte weiter neue Rekorde erreichen. Denn es kommt nicht darauf an, ob wir nun gierig bzw. voller Euphorie sind, sondern darauf, wie lange diese Atmosphäre anhält. Mit Blick auf die Historie der letzten 2 bis 3 Monate schwebt der Wert dieses Indikators nämlich in der Kategorie der Gier bzw. Euphorie.
Ausblick auf die Rallye
All das sind gute Zeichen dafür, dass wir sicherlich noch nicht am Ende dieser Rallye sind. Und warum auch, denn wir sind schließlich wieder in einem Bullenmarkt, der sich historisch gesehen durchschnittlich 22 Monate dementsprechend verhält und einen triftigen Grund bräuchte, um sich aus dieser Phase zu verabschieden!Und gibt es diese Gründe? Aus Sicht der meisten Börsianer nicht wirklich, weil im Moment alles für eine Fortsetzung dieses Booms spricht und selbst wenn es zu schlechten Nachrichten kommen sollte, gibt es immer noch Katalysatoren, die den Markt Euphorie und Fantasie für die Zukunft schenken! Ich sage nur KI ;)
China: Der wilde Ritt des roten Drachen
Während sich die US-Aktienmärkte also immer neuer Höchststände erfreuen, kämpft China gegen die Deflation: In den letzten drei Jahren verlor der Hang Seng, einer der wichtigsten Indizes Asiens, mehr als -40 Prozent seines Wertes. Im selben Zeitraum liegt auch der Shanghai-Composite-Index bei knapp -15 Prozent.Noch problematischer wird es, wenn man sich den Verfall von Grundstücks- und Immobilienpreisen etwas genauer ansieht: Denn seit Anfang 2022 befindet sich Chinas Immobilienmarkt in einer schweren Rezession.
Was war passiert?
Jahrzehntelang haben Chinas Bauträger ihre Expansion auf Pump finanziert. Während die Besorgnis aufgrund dieser starken Fremdfinanzierung durchaus vorhanden war, wurden die günstigen Kreditbedingungen weiter fortgesetzt, ohne die Gläubiger über die damit verbundenen Risiken in Kenntnis zu setzen. Im zweiten Halbjahr 2020 führte China schließlich die Politik der drei roten Linien ein, die von den Bauträgern verlangt, ihre Schulden zu reduzieren. Das brachte schließlich viele Bauträger an den Rand des Ruins.Eine Abwärtsspirale beginnt
Der chinesische Immobilienmarkt macht derzeit 21 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts Chinas aus. Anfang 2020 lag dessen Anteil noch bei knapp einem Drittel. Es kann daher nicht von der Hand gewiesen werden, dass der chinesische Immobilienmarkt einen essenziellen Anteil an der Erfolgsgeschichte Chinas hat.Dabei liegen die Immobilienpreise in chinesischen Großstädten wie Shenzhen, Goungzhou oder Peking in etwa dreimal höher, wie beispielsweise in den Metropolen New York City oder Tokio. In Shanghai liegen die Immobilienpreise sogar mehr als viermal so hoch. Zurecht werden daher Erinnerungen an das Platzen der Immobilienblase Japans Anfang der 1990er-Jahre wach.
Durch den Verfall der Immobilienpreise waren sowohl Unternehmen als auch Privatpersonen von massiven Wertverlusten betroffen. Die Schulden können über den stetigen Anstieg ihres Immobilienbesitzes nicht länger getilgt werden, also müssen andere Vermögenswerte verkauft werden. Das Konsumverhalten geht zurück, die Leute beginnen zu sparen - auch aus Angst vor der immer höher steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit. Diese hat sich bei 16-24-jährigen in den letzten fünf Jahren auf über 20 Prozent mehr als verdoppelt.
Dieser Trend spiegelt sich auch in den Firmenbilanzen wieder: Rund ein Viertel aller chinesischen Privatunternehmen schrieb im letzten Jahr Verluste. Fünf Jahre zuvor waren es noch die Hälfte.
Steht China heute vor einer Trendumkehr?
Mit dem Verbot von Shortselling und Hedgefonds, die sich dieser Praktiken bedienen, geht China einen etwas ungewöhnlichen Weg. Ende Januar wurde auch bekannt, dass Peking einen Stabilisierungsfonds im Wert von 300 Milliarden US-Dollar errichten wolle. Damit sollen vor allem heimische Aktien gekauft werden.Dieser Plan schien zumindest vorerst die Märkte zu beruhigen, denn seitdem befinden sich Hang Seng, der CSI 300 und CSI 1000 (mit den 1.000 größten chinesischen Unternehmen) wieder im Aufwärtstrend.
Doch Kritiker warnen, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine Verschnaufpause handelt, und der Ausverkauf weiterginge, sobald die Anleger feststellen würden, dass weitere Unterstützungsmaßnahmen ausbleiben.
Tatsächlich ist auch die Senkung der Fünfjahreszinsen von letzter Woche nur ein Tropfen auf dem heißen Stein: »Die Leute wollen sich entschulden, weil die Schulden zu hoch sind für die fallenden Immobilienpreise. Dieser Faktor kann eigentlich gar nicht mit einer niedrigen Zinspolitik aufgefangen werden. [...] Auch wenn die Zinsen bei null stehen, nehme ich keinen Kredit auf, wenn ich Angst habe, dass bei mir das Vermögen noch weiter fällt.« Carsten Roemheld, Chief Financial Analyst bei Fidelity.
Es brauche daher größere Stimuli, die vor allem den fallenden Immobilienmarkt stützen müssten. Aber auch eine Woche vor dem alljährlichen Plenum des Nationalen Volkskongress gibt es keine Anzeichen für größere Konjunkturimpulse oder gar einen Reformplan:
»Es wird auf dem Nationalen Volkskongress keine politischen Paukenschläge geben, auch weil China keine guten Möglichkeiten hat, das Wachstum über seine traditionellen Kanäle aufrechtzuerhalten.«, so Logan Wright von der Rhodium Group.
Tatsächlich sprach auch Fed-Chef Powell in seinem Interview mit 60 Minutes davon, dass China sich weg von einer Wachstumsgesellschaft und hin zu einem Staat der Regulierung bewegt habe.
Laut Derek Scissors, vom American Enterprise Institute, stecke China »aus eigener Entscheidung« fest: Bei einer »jetzigen Kursänderung müsste [China] gravierende langfristige Fehler eingestehen - und das wäre [für China] unwahrscheinlich.«
Japans Börse boomt
Während die Märkte in China also in der Schwebe stehen, erlebt etwas weiter östlich der japanische Aktienindex Nikkei-225 seinen zweiten Frühling:Zum ersten Mal seit 35 Jahren wanderte dieser wieder auf Höchststände jenseits der 30.000er-Marke und schloss, beflügelt von den Quartalszahlen bei Nvidia, mit 39.098,68 Punkten vergangene Woche über dem alten Rekord von 1989. Dabei hat die Euphorie in Japan gleich mehrere Gründe:
Zum einen befinden sich mit Nikon und Canon zwei der drei größten Lithographiehersteller in Japan. Diese beiden Unternehmen waren im Jahr 2020 für 38 Prozent des gesamten Lithographiemarktes für die Halbleiterindustrie zuständig (die übrigen 62 Prozent entfielen auf niederländischen Konzern ASML) und beliefern sowohl den Westen als auch China mit den so dringend benötigten Maschinen zur Herstellung von Mikrochips.
Zum anderen hat auch Warren Buffet’s Bekenntnis zum japanischen Markt im letzten Jahr für einen regelrechten Boom ausländischer Investoren gesorgt: Für sie ist Japan ein Wachstumsmarkt.
Doch der wahre Hauptgrund für den Wiederaufstieg Japans liegt andernorts und ist auch jener Grund, der schon vor 35 Jahren den japanischen Markt so stark zum Florieren brachte: die Währungs- und Zinspolitik Japans.
Trotz mehrmaliger Intervenierungen am Devisenmarkt im letzten Jahr, ließ die japanische Notenbank den Leitzins unangetastet. Dieser befindet sich nun schon seit 2016 mit -0,1 Prozent auf einem historischem Tiefstand.
Der dadurch schwache Yen führt dazu, dass die japanische Exportindustrie derzeit scheinbar(!) Rekordgewinne für sich verbuchen kann. Denn in den aktuellen Jahresprognosen japanischer Unternehmen ist die Mehrheit der Gewinne auf Währungsgewinne zurückzuführen - im Falle von Toyota sprechen wir sogar von mehr als zwei Drittel.
Während Tokio also brummt, ziehen andernorts dunkle Wolken über Japan auf.
Schattenseiten im Land der aufgehenden Sonne
Denn rein technisch gesehen, befindet sich Japan in einer Rezession.Aufgrund der schwachen Binnennachfrage rutschte das japanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt im vierten Quartal ins Minus und liegt damit nun zwei Quartale hintereinander in Negativterritorium (-3,3 % in Q3/23, -0,4 % in Q4/23). Das ist zwar nicht das erste Mal, dass Japan sich in einer Rezession befindet, wohl aber das erste Mal bei gleichzeitigem Anstieg des Nikkei-Indexes.
Warum aber scheint der japanische Aktienmarkt gegenüber der Wirtschaftslage des Landes dieses Mal so resilient zu sein? Es ist dasselbe Lied, das nahezu überall gespielt wird: KI - und der Einfluss Nvidias, der sich wie ein Schleier (auch) über die wirtschaftliche Realität Japans legt. Doch ist diese Euphorie von selbiger Fragilität geprägt, wie in den späten 1980ern, als die Bank of Japan unter einem enormen Druck stand, erstmals die Zinssätze wieder zu erhöhen.
Damals begann damit der lange Abstieg Japans und des Nikkei-Indexes und auch wenn dieses Mal die Gefahr nicht von überteuernden Grundstückspreisen zu kommen scheint, so sind durchaus Risse erkennbar: Denn über die Jahre haben sich japanische Banken massiv mit ausländischen Anleihen und Vermögenswerten eingedeckt.
Die Rückkehr der Zinsdifferenzgeschäfte
Finanziert werden diese durch die billigen Kreditraten. Doch wehe, wenn die japanische Notenbank die Zinssätze erhöht: Dann nämlich wird aus dem einträglichen Geschäft ein Fass ohne Boden. Die Zinsdifferenz würde zunächst schrumpfen und am Ende müssten diese Banken sogar noch etwas draufzahlen.Dieses gegenwärtig immer mehr ansteigende Risiko birgt enormes Explosionspotenzial: Denn um aus dem sich selbst geschaufelten Schuldengrab wieder herauszukommen, wären diese Banken gezwungen, all diese nun »wertlosen« Vermögenswerte wieder abzustoßen:
Infolgedessen würde der Markt mit Anleihen überflutet, was abermals die Kurse weiter sinken und die Renditen in die Höhe schnellen lassen würde: Eine Belastungsprobe für die ohnehin schon unter Stress stehenden Klein- und Regionalbanken in den USA.
Doch dazu müssten die japanischen Zinssätze überhaupt erst mal erhöht werden, und dann auch noch in einem Ausmaß, das groß genug sein müsste, um bei den Banken irreparable Schäden anzurichten. Im Endeffekt reden wir hier also von mehreren Erhöhungen, die nacheinander geschehen müssten. Genau das schließt der japanische Notenbankpräsident Shinichi Uchida jedoch kategorisch aus.
Japan: Weitere Risiken
Dennoch empfiehlt es sich, wachsam zu bleiben, denn wie der Fall der Aozora-Bank gezeigt hat, kann auch die Gefahr vonseiten der Vermögenswerte stammen: Nämlich dann, wenn es sich dabei um US-Gewerbeimmobilien handelt.Auch muss sich die japanische Notenbank gut überlegen, wie sie die Inflation wieder einzudämmen gedenkt, nachdem Zinserhöhungen für Uchida keine Option darstellen.
Zu guter Letzt: Erinnert ihr euch noch an das mit Ausrufezeichen versehene »scheinbar(!)«, als ich über die japanischen Exporte schrieb?
Es wird gerne vergessen, dass Japans Exportindustrie aus mehr als nur der Halbleiter- und Automobilbranche besteht. Denn die Realität sieht leider so aus, dass die japanische Exportindustrie insgesamt sogar rückläufig ist.
Fazit/tl;dr: Finger weg von asiatischen Aktien?
Der Schluss legt nahe, dass hinter dem Aufstieg des Nikkei-Indexes mehr Schein als Sein zu stecken scheint. Ein Einstieg in den japanischen Aktienmarkt soll also gut abgewogen werden. Denn nebst bekannten Imponderabilien lauern in Japan zusätzlich einige Besonderheiten.China steckt dagegen nach wie vor fest in der Krise. Eine Fortsetzung des Preisverfalls chinesischer Aktien kann derzeit nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Zusätzlich ist Peking auch nicht bereit, seinen Kurs großartig zu verändern. Aller Voraussicht nach steht daher China noch ein längerer Leidensweg bevor, bis der Druck auch Peking irgendwann groß genug sein dürfte, um die so dringend benötigten Reformen auf den Weg zu bringen.
Sowohl der japanische als auch chinesische Aktienmarkt sind daher sehr mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Wer unbedingt jetzt in Aktien einsteigen will, ist am US-amerikanischen oder dem europäischen Markt eindeutig besser beraten.
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US-Aktien im Höhenflug! Doch was ist mit Japan und China?!
2024.03.02 17:45 Mr_Rabenstein US-Aktien im Höhenflug! Doch was ist mit Japan und China?!
Die US-amerikanischen Aktien boomen und es scheint so, als wäre kein Ende in Sicht. Seit Anfang des Jahres hat der S&P 500, Stand 29.02.24, 7,25 % zugelegt und reist damit von einem Allzeithoch zum anderen. Dabei wurde bis jetzt auch schon die neuerdings spannende Marke von 5000 Punkten überschritten und somit lässt sich ein weiterer Meilenstein in den Geschichtsbüchern der Börse eintragen.
Der Index tendiert klar über der 50-, aber auch 200-Tageslinie, die ein Anzeichen für eine gewisse Stabilität des Indexes setzen. Grund für die schon fast astronomische Euphorie sind vor allem die positive Geschäfts- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung der USA und der Hype um die künstliche Intelligenz, die mittlerweile in aller Munde ist und auch in Europa Fuß fasst. Gerade die Big Player, besonders die Big-Tech-Unternehmen dieser Welt, profitieren enorm von der idealistischen und verträumten Zukunft der KI und planen in jeglicher Hinsicht, in diesem Bereich zu expandieren.
Nvidia, Microsoft und Meta sind Paradebeispiele für das Tragen der US-Märkte. Nicht ohne Grund sind diese Unternehmen bzw. Aktien Teil der berüchtigten „Glorreichen 7“-Allokation, die im Gegensatz zu den restlichen 493 Aktien des S&P 500-Index einen nahezu astronomischen Anstieg erfahren durften. Diese besondere Differenz wird durch den Gap der folgenden Grafik deutlich.
Denn man kann sagen: Wenn es den Amerikanern gut geht, müssen wir uns nicht zwingend Sorgen machen. Und bislang trifft das auch durchaus zu. Auch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der USA, ein allseits bekannter und leicht verständlicher Indikator für die Stabilität und das Wachstum eines Landes, scheint nicht zu schrumpfen. Stattdessen sehen wir, dass die USA auf dem besten Weg sind, stabile Umsätze zu erzielen und sich nicht davon abhalten zu lassen. Abhalten zu lassen von den negativen Stimmen, auch von Kritikern, die einen großen Einfluss auf die Finanzwelt haben und der Meinung sind, dass ein sogenanntes Soft Landing, ein sicheres Szenario für eine weiche Wirtschaftslandung, nicht in Steine gemeißelt ist.
Doch Jamie Dimon lag bislang nicht richtig mit seinem Blick auf die Wirtschaft, und als ein Außenstehender, der die ganze Zeit auf einen kräftigeren Rücksetzer wartet, um Gelder vom Seitenrand in den Markt zu schießen, fühlt man sich schon fast als ein Außenseiter an der Börse, weil man nicht die großen Kursgewinne miterlebt. Doch es gibt tatsächlich seit einigen Monaten keine direkten Abstürze oder Dips, wie man in der Börsenkultur sagt, die so ausgeprägt sind, dass man in den Markt einsteigen bzw. bereits im Depot liegende Aktien nachkaufen kann.
Derzeit schwankt die Volatilität auf dem hier angesprochenen Index S&P 500 um den Wert 13, der fast den Boden der letzten 5 Jahre bildet. Das spricht definitiv für eine niedrige Schwankungsstärke, die wiederum das Phänomen niedriger Kursrücksetzer erklärt, insofern überhaupt ein Kursrücksetzer in diesem kräftigen Bullenrun mal auftaucht.
Des Weiteren spielt auch, wie bereits angedeutet, die unangefochtene und nahezu astronomische Euphorie der Markthändler eine wichtige Rolle. Die Stimmung am Markt kann durch ein Stimmungsbarometer, wie den berüchtigten CNN Fear & Greed Index, gemessen und anschließend auf die Marktbreite angewendet werden.
Aktuell bestätigt dieser Indikator nur das, was wir an den Märkten sehen. Pure Euphorie und das Setzen grenzenloser Ziele für den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. Doch auch wenn der Indikator eine extreme Gier signalisiert, heißt das nicht, dass wir mit der Ausschöpfung unserer Euphorie am Ende sind. Und auch wenn dem so sei, können die Märkte weiter neue Rekorde erreichen. Denn es kommt nicht darauf an, ob wir nun gierig bzw. voller Euphorie sind, sondern darauf, wie lange diese Atmosphäre anhält. Mit Blick auf die Historie der letzten 2 bis 3 Monate schwebt der Wert dieses Indikators nämlich in der Kategorie der Gier bzw. Euphorie.
Und gibt es diese Gründe? Aus Sicht der meisten Börsianer nicht wirklich, weil im Moment alles für eine Fortsetzung dieses Booms spricht und selbst wenn es zu schlechten Nachrichten kommen sollte, gibt es immer noch Katalysatoren, die den Markt Euphorie und Fantasie für die Zukunft schenken! Ich sage nur KI ;)
Noch problematischer wird es, wenn man sich den Verfall von Grundstücks- und Immobilienpreisen etwas genauer ansieht: Denn seit Anfang 2022 befindet sich Chinas Immobilienmarkt in einer schweren Rezession.
Dabei liegen die Immobilienpreise in chinesischen Großstädten wie Shenzhen, Goungzhou oder Peking in etwa dreimal höher, wie beispielsweise in den Metropolen New York City oder Tokio. In Shanghai liegen die Immobilienpreise sogar mehr als viermal so hoch. Zurecht werden daher Erinnerungen an das Platzen der Immobilienblase Japans Anfang der 1990er-Jahre wach.
Durch den Verfall der Immobilienpreise waren sowohl Unternehmen als auch Privatpersonen von massiven Wertverlusten betroffen. Die Schulden können über den stetigen Anstieg ihres Immobilienbesitzes nicht länger getilgt werden, also müssen andere Vermögenswerte verkauft werden. Das Konsumverhalten geht zurück, die Leute beginnen zu sparen - auch aus Angst vor der immer höher steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit. Diese hat sich bei 16-24-jährigen in den letzten fünf Jahren auf über 20 Prozent mehr als verdoppelt.
Dieser Trend spiegelt sich auch in den Firmenbilanzen wieder: Rund ein Viertel aller chinesischen Privatunternehmen schrieb im letzten Jahr Verluste. Fünf Jahre zuvor waren es noch die Hälfte.
Dieser Plan schien zumindest vorerst die Märkte zu beruhigen, denn seitdem befinden sich Hang Seng, der CSI 300 und CSI 1000 (mit den 1.000 größten chinesischen Unternehmen) wieder im Aufwärtstrend.
Doch Kritiker warnen, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine Verschnaufpause handelt, und der Ausverkauf weiterginge, sobald die Anleger feststellen würden, dass weitere Unterstützungsmaßnahmen ausbleiben.
Tatsächlich ist auch die Senkung der Fünfjahreszinsen von letzter Woche nur ein Tropfen auf dem heißen Stein: »Die Leute wollen sich entschulden, weil die Schulden zu hoch sind für die fallenden Immobilienpreise. Dieser Faktor kann eigentlich gar nicht mit einer niedrigen Zinspolitik aufgefangen werden. [...] Auch wenn die Zinsen bei null stehen, nehme ich keinen Kredit auf, wenn ich Angst habe, dass bei mir das Vermögen noch weiter fällt.« Carsten Roemheld, Chief Financial Analyst bei Fidelity.
Es brauche daher größere Stimuli, die vor allem den fallenden Immobilienmarkt stützen müssten. Aber auch eine Woche vor dem alljährlichen Plenum des Nationalen Volkskongress gibt es keine Anzeichen für größere Konjunkturimpulse oder gar einen Reformplan:
»Es wird auf dem Nationalen Volkskongress keine politischen Paukenschläge geben, auch weil China keine guten Möglichkeiten hat, das Wachstum über seine traditionellen Kanäle aufrechtzuerhalten.«, so Logan Wright von der Rhodium Group.
Tatsächlich sprach auch Fed-Chef Powell in seinem Interview mit 60 Minutes davon, dass China sich weg von einer Wachstumsgesellschaft und hin zu einem Staat der Regulierung bewegt habe.
Laut Derek Scissors, vom American Enterprise Institute, stecke China »aus eigener Entscheidung« fest: Bei einer »jetzigen Kursänderung müsste [China] gravierende langfristige Fehler eingestehen - und das wäre [für China] unwahrscheinlich.«
Zum ersten Mal seit 35 Jahren wanderte dieser wieder auf Höchststände jenseits der 30.000er-Marke und schloss, beflügelt von den Quartalszahlen bei Nvidia, mit 39.098,68 Punkten vergangene Woche über dem alten Rekord von 1989. Dabei hat die Euphorie in Japan gleich mehrere Gründe:
Zum einen befinden sich mit Nikon und Canon zwei der drei größten Lithographiehersteller in Japan. Diese beiden Unternehmen waren im Jahr 2020 für 38 Prozent des gesamten Lithographiemarktes für die Halbleiterindustrie zuständig (die übrigen 62 Prozent entfielen auf niederländischen Konzern ASML) und beliefern sowohl den Westen als auch China mit den so dringend benötigten Maschinen zur Herstellung von Mikrochips.
Zum anderen hat auch Warren Buffet’s Bekenntnis zum japanischen Markt im letzten Jahr für einen regelrechten Boom ausländischer Investoren gesorgt: Für sie ist Japan ein Wachstumsmarkt.
Doch der wahre Hauptgrund für den Wiederaufstieg Japans liegt andernorts und ist auch jener Grund, der schon vor 35 Jahren den japanischen Markt so stark zum Florieren brachte: die Währungs- und Zinspolitik Japans.
Trotz mehrmaliger Intervenierungen am Devisenmarkt im letzten Jahr, ließ die japanische Notenbank den Leitzins unangetastet. Dieser befindet sich nun schon seit 2016 mit -0,1 Prozent auf einem historischem Tiefstand.
Der dadurch schwache Yen führt dazu, dass die japanische Exportindustrie derzeit scheinbar(!) Rekordgewinne für sich verbuchen kann. Denn in den aktuellen Jahresprognosen japanischer Unternehmen ist die Mehrheit der Gewinne auf Währungsgewinne zurückzuführen - im Falle von Toyota sprechen wir sogar von mehr als zwei Drittel.
Während Tokio also brummt, ziehen andernorts dunkle Wolken über Japan auf.
Aufgrund der schwachen Binnennachfrage rutschte das japanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt im vierten Quartal ins Minus und liegt damit nun zwei Quartale hintereinander in Negativterritorium (-3,3 % in Q3/23, -0,4 % in Q4/23). Das ist zwar nicht das erste Mal, dass Japan sich in einer Rezession befindet, wohl aber das erste Mal bei gleichzeitigem Anstieg des Nikkei-Indexes.
Warum aber scheint der japanische Aktienmarkt gegenüber der Wirtschaftslage des Landes dieses Mal so resilient zu sein? Es ist dasselbe Lied, das nahezu überall gespielt wird: KI - und der Einfluss Nvidias, der sich wie ein Schleier (auch) über die wirtschaftliche Realität Japans legt. Doch ist diese Euphorie von selbiger Fragilität geprägt, wie in den späten 1980ern, als die Bank of Japan unter einem enormen Druck stand, erstmals die Zinssätze wieder zu erhöhen.
Damals begann damit der lange Abstieg Japans und des Nikkei-Indexes und auch wenn dieses Mal die Gefahr nicht von überteuernden Grundstückspreisen zu kommen scheint, so sind durchaus Risse erkennbar: Denn über die Jahre haben sich japanische Banken massiv mit ausländischen Anleihen und Vermögenswerten eingedeckt.
Dieses gegenwärtig immer mehr ansteigende Risiko birgt enormes Explosionspotenzial: Denn um aus dem sich selbst geschaufelten Schuldengrab wieder herauszukommen, wären diese Banken gezwungen, all diese nun »wertlosen« Vermögenswerte wieder abzustoßen:
Infolgedessen würde der Markt mit Anleihen überflutet, was abermals die Kurse weiter sinken und die Renditen in die Höhe schnellen lassen würde: Eine Belastungsprobe für die ohnehin schon unter Stress stehenden Klein- und Regionalbanken in den USA.
Doch dazu müssten die japanischen Zinssätze überhaupt erst mal erhöht werden, und dann auch noch in einem Ausmaß, das groß genug sein müsste, um bei den Banken irreparable Schäden anzurichten. Im Endeffekt reden wir hier also von mehreren Erhöhungen, die nacheinander geschehen müssten. Genau das schließt der japanische Notenbankpräsident Shinichi Uchida jedoch kategorisch aus.
Auch muss sich die japanische Notenbank gut überlegen, wie sie die Inflation wieder einzudämmen gedenkt, nachdem Zinserhöhungen für Uchida keine Option darstellen.
Zu guter Letzt: Erinnert ihr euch noch an das mit Ausrufezeichen versehene »scheinbar(!)«, als ich über die japanischen Exporte schrieb?
Es wird gerne vergessen, dass Japans Exportindustrie aus mehr als nur der Halbleiter- und Automobilbranche besteht. Denn die Realität sieht leider so aus, dass die japanische Exportindustrie insgesamt sogar rückläufig ist.
China steckt dagegen nach wie vor fest in der Krise. Eine Fortsetzung des Preisverfalls chinesischer Aktien kann derzeit nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Zusätzlich ist Peking auch nicht bereit, seinen Kurs großartig zu verändern. Aller Voraussicht nach steht daher China noch ein längerer Leidensweg bevor, bis der Druck auch Peking irgendwann groß genug sein dürfte, um die so dringend benötigten Reformen auf den Weg zu bringen.
Sowohl der japanische als auch chinesische Aktienmarkt sind daher sehr mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Wer unbedingt jetzt in Aktien einsteigen will, ist am US-amerikanischen oder dem europäischen Markt eindeutig besser beraten.
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Dieser Beitrag wurde in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Blog Börsenoptimismus verfasst.
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Der Index tendiert klar über der 50-, aber auch 200-Tageslinie, die ein Anzeichen für eine gewisse Stabilität des Indexes setzen. Grund für die schon fast astronomische Euphorie sind vor allem die positive Geschäfts- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung der USA und der Hype um die künstliche Intelligenz, die mittlerweile in aller Munde ist und auch in Europa Fuß fasst. Gerade die Big Player, besonders die Big-Tech-Unternehmen dieser Welt, profitieren enorm von der idealistischen und verträumten Zukunft der KI und planen in jeglicher Hinsicht, in diesem Bereich zu expandieren.
Einfluss der Big Player
Zukunft ist ein passendes Schlagwort, denn berechtigterweise zählt die Weisheit: „An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt.“ Dieses Zitat und noch kräftigere Kursanstiege treffen für die Big-Player voll und ganz ein.Nvidia, Microsoft und Meta sind Paradebeispiele für das Tragen der US-Märkte. Nicht ohne Grund sind diese Unternehmen bzw. Aktien Teil der berüchtigten „Glorreichen 7“-Allokation, die im Gegensatz zu den restlichen 493 Aktien des S&P 500-Index einen nahezu astronomischen Anstieg erfahren durften. Diese besondere Differenz wird durch den Gap der folgenden Grafik deutlich.
Stabile wirtschaftliche Entwicklung
Wie schon zuvor angedeutet, trägt auch die solide Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu dem aktuellen Boom an den amerikanischen Märkten bei. Anders als viele Börsenkritiker dachten, sehen wir nämlich durchaus eine Stabilität am Arbeitsmarkt, aber auch in der allgemeinen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, die auch ein Grundstein und Indikator für die Sicherheit an den Märkten in Europa und der ganzen Welt ist.Denn man kann sagen: Wenn es den Amerikanern gut geht, müssen wir uns nicht zwingend Sorgen machen. Und bislang trifft das auch durchaus zu. Auch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der USA, ein allseits bekannter und leicht verständlicher Indikator für die Stabilität und das Wachstum eines Landes, scheint nicht zu schrumpfen. Stattdessen sehen wir, dass die USA auf dem besten Weg sind, stabile Umsätze zu erzielen und sich nicht davon abhalten zu lassen. Abhalten zu lassen von den negativen Stimmen, auch von Kritikern, die einen großen Einfluss auf die Finanzwelt haben und der Meinung sind, dass ein sogenanntes Soft Landing, ein sicheres Szenario für eine weiche Wirtschaftslandung, nicht in Steine gemeißelt ist.
Begriff “Soft Landing” und Marktstimmung
Dazu gehört auch Jamie Dimon, der CEO von J. P. Morgan, einer der weltweit mächtigsten Banken, und deren Töne sehr an Aufmerksamkeit gewinnen. Dimon ist strikt der Meinung, und das auch schon seit längerer Zeit, dass die Bürger und vor allem Markthändler sich nicht auf die Meinung einer Soft Landing verharren sollten und auch die Märkte bei einem eintretenden Widerspruch stärker fallen können als bereits gedacht.Doch Jamie Dimon lag bislang nicht richtig mit seinem Blick auf die Wirtschaft, und als ein Außenstehender, der die ganze Zeit auf einen kräftigeren Rücksetzer wartet, um Gelder vom Seitenrand in den Markt zu schießen, fühlt man sich schon fast als ein Außenseiter an der Börse, weil man nicht die großen Kursgewinne miterlebt. Doch es gibt tatsächlich seit einigen Monaten keine direkten Abstürze oder Dips, wie man in der Börsenkultur sagt, die so ausgeprägt sind, dass man in den Markt einsteigen bzw. bereits im Depot liegende Aktien nachkaufen kann.
Niedrige Volatilität und Euphorie
Minimale Kursrücksetzer, aber beachtliche Kursgewinne – welcher Zusammenhang ist für diese Divergenz verantwortlich? In Grunde genommen ist ein entscheidender Faktor die Volatilität, die im Vergleich der letzten Jahre unter dem Durchschnitt liegt.Derzeit schwankt die Volatilität auf dem hier angesprochenen Index S&P 500 um den Wert 13, der fast den Boden der letzten 5 Jahre bildet. Das spricht definitiv für eine niedrige Schwankungsstärke, die wiederum das Phänomen niedriger Kursrücksetzer erklärt, insofern überhaupt ein Kursrücksetzer in diesem kräftigen Bullenrun mal auftaucht.
Des Weiteren spielt auch, wie bereits angedeutet, die unangefochtene und nahezu astronomische Euphorie der Markthändler eine wichtige Rolle. Die Stimmung am Markt kann durch ein Stimmungsbarometer, wie den berüchtigten CNN Fear & Greed Index, gemessen und anschließend auf die Marktbreite angewendet werden.
Aktuell bestätigt dieser Indikator nur das, was wir an den Märkten sehen. Pure Euphorie und das Setzen grenzenloser Ziele für den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. Doch auch wenn der Indikator eine extreme Gier signalisiert, heißt das nicht, dass wir mit der Ausschöpfung unserer Euphorie am Ende sind. Und auch wenn dem so sei, können die Märkte weiter neue Rekorde erreichen. Denn es kommt nicht darauf an, ob wir nun gierig bzw. voller Euphorie sind, sondern darauf, wie lange diese Atmosphäre anhält. Mit Blick auf die Historie der letzten 2 bis 3 Monate schwebt der Wert dieses Indikators nämlich in der Kategorie der Gier bzw. Euphorie.
Ausblick auf die Rallye
All das sind gute Zeichen dafür, dass wir sicherlich noch nicht am Ende dieser Rallye sind. Und warum auch, denn wir sind schließlich wieder in einem Bullenmarkt, der sich historisch gesehen durchschnittlich 22 Monate dementsprechend verhält und einen triftigen Grund bräuchte, um sich aus dieser Phase zu verabschieden!Und gibt es diese Gründe? Aus Sicht der meisten Börsianer nicht wirklich, weil im Moment alles für eine Fortsetzung dieses Booms spricht und selbst wenn es zu schlechten Nachrichten kommen sollte, gibt es immer noch Katalysatoren, die den Markt Euphorie und Fantasie für die Zukunft schenken! Ich sage nur KI ;)
China: Der wilde Ritt des roten Drachen
Während sich die US-Aktienmärkte also immer neuer Höchststände erfreuen, kämpft China gegen die Deflation: In den letzten drei Jahren verlor der Hang Seng, einer der wichtigsten Indizes Asiens, mehr als -40 Prozent seines Wertes. Im selben Zeitraum liegt auch der Shanghai-Composite-Index bei knapp -15 Prozent.Noch problematischer wird es, wenn man sich den Verfall von Grundstücks- und Immobilienpreisen etwas genauer ansieht: Denn seit Anfang 2022 befindet sich Chinas Immobilienmarkt in einer schweren Rezession.
Was war passiert?
Jahrzehntelang haben Chinas Bauträger ihre Expansion auf Pump finanziert. Während die Besorgnis aufgrund dieser starken Fremdfinanzierung durchaus vorhanden war, wurden die günstigen Kreditbedingungen weiter fortgesetzt, ohne die Gläubiger über die damit verbundenen Risiken in Kenntnis zu setzen. Im zweiten Halbjahr 2020 führte China schließlich die Politik der drei roten Linien ein, die von den Bauträgern verlangt, ihre Schulden zu reduzieren. Das brachte schließlich viele Bauträger an den Rand des Ruins.Eine Abwärtsspirale beginnt
Der chinesische Immobilienmarkt macht derzeit 21 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts Chinas aus. Anfang 2020 lag dessen Anteil noch bei knapp einem Drittel. Es kann daher nicht von der Hand gewiesen werden, dass der chinesische Immobilienmarkt einen essenziellen Anteil an der Erfolgsgeschichte Chinas hat.Dabei liegen die Immobilienpreise in chinesischen Großstädten wie Shenzhen, Goungzhou oder Peking in etwa dreimal höher, wie beispielsweise in den Metropolen New York City oder Tokio. In Shanghai liegen die Immobilienpreise sogar mehr als viermal so hoch. Zurecht werden daher Erinnerungen an das Platzen der Immobilienblase Japans Anfang der 1990er-Jahre wach.
Durch den Verfall der Immobilienpreise waren sowohl Unternehmen als auch Privatpersonen von massiven Wertverlusten betroffen. Die Schulden können über den stetigen Anstieg ihres Immobilienbesitzes nicht länger getilgt werden, also müssen andere Vermögenswerte verkauft werden. Das Konsumverhalten geht zurück, die Leute beginnen zu sparen - auch aus Angst vor der immer höher steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit. Diese hat sich bei 16-24-jährigen in den letzten fünf Jahren auf über 20 Prozent mehr als verdoppelt.
Dieser Trend spiegelt sich auch in den Firmenbilanzen wieder: Rund ein Viertel aller chinesischen Privatunternehmen schrieb im letzten Jahr Verluste. Fünf Jahre zuvor waren es noch die Hälfte.
Steht China heute vor einer Trendumkehr?
Mit dem Verbot von Shortselling und Hedgefonds, die sich dieser Praktiken bedienen, geht China einen etwas ungewöhnlichen Weg. Ende Januar wurde auch bekannt, dass Peking einen Stabilisierungsfonds im Wert von 300 Milliarden US-Dollar errichten wolle. Damit sollen vor allem heimische Aktien gekauft werden.Dieser Plan schien zumindest vorerst die Märkte zu beruhigen, denn seitdem befinden sich Hang Seng, der CSI 300 und CSI 1000 (mit den 1.000 größten chinesischen Unternehmen) wieder im Aufwärtstrend.
Doch Kritiker warnen, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine Verschnaufpause handelt, und der Ausverkauf weiterginge, sobald die Anleger feststellen würden, dass weitere Unterstützungsmaßnahmen ausbleiben.
Tatsächlich ist auch die Senkung der Fünfjahreszinsen von letzter Woche nur ein Tropfen auf dem heißen Stein: »Die Leute wollen sich entschulden, weil die Schulden zu hoch sind für die fallenden Immobilienpreise. Dieser Faktor kann eigentlich gar nicht mit einer niedrigen Zinspolitik aufgefangen werden. [...] Auch wenn die Zinsen bei null stehen, nehme ich keinen Kredit auf, wenn ich Angst habe, dass bei mir das Vermögen noch weiter fällt.« Carsten Roemheld, Chief Financial Analyst bei Fidelity.
Es brauche daher größere Stimuli, die vor allem den fallenden Immobilienmarkt stützen müssten. Aber auch eine Woche vor dem alljährlichen Plenum des Nationalen Volkskongress gibt es keine Anzeichen für größere Konjunkturimpulse oder gar einen Reformplan:
»Es wird auf dem Nationalen Volkskongress keine politischen Paukenschläge geben, auch weil China keine guten Möglichkeiten hat, das Wachstum über seine traditionellen Kanäle aufrechtzuerhalten.«, so Logan Wright von der Rhodium Group.
Tatsächlich sprach auch Fed-Chef Powell in seinem Interview mit 60 Minutes davon, dass China sich weg von einer Wachstumsgesellschaft und hin zu einem Staat der Regulierung bewegt habe.
Laut Derek Scissors, vom American Enterprise Institute, stecke China »aus eigener Entscheidung« fest: Bei einer »jetzigen Kursänderung müsste [China] gravierende langfristige Fehler eingestehen - und das wäre [für China] unwahrscheinlich.«
Japans Börse boomt
Während die Märkte in China also in der Schwebe stehen, erlebt etwas weiter östlich der japanische Aktienindex Nikkei-225 seinen zweiten Frühling:Zum ersten Mal seit 35 Jahren wanderte dieser wieder auf Höchststände jenseits der 30.000er-Marke und schloss, beflügelt von den Quartalszahlen bei Nvidia, mit 39.098,68 Punkten vergangene Woche über dem alten Rekord von 1989. Dabei hat die Euphorie in Japan gleich mehrere Gründe:
Zum einen befinden sich mit Nikon und Canon zwei der drei größten Lithographiehersteller in Japan. Diese beiden Unternehmen waren im Jahr 2020 für 38 Prozent des gesamten Lithographiemarktes für die Halbleiterindustrie zuständig (die übrigen 62 Prozent entfielen auf niederländischen Konzern ASML) und beliefern sowohl den Westen als auch China mit den so dringend benötigten Maschinen zur Herstellung von Mikrochips.
Zum anderen hat auch Warren Buffet’s Bekenntnis zum japanischen Markt im letzten Jahr für einen regelrechten Boom ausländischer Investoren gesorgt: Für sie ist Japan ein Wachstumsmarkt.
Doch der wahre Hauptgrund für den Wiederaufstieg Japans liegt andernorts und ist auch jener Grund, der schon vor 35 Jahren den japanischen Markt so stark zum Florieren brachte: die Währungs- und Zinspolitik Japans.
Trotz mehrmaliger Intervenierungen am Devisenmarkt im letzten Jahr, ließ die japanische Notenbank den Leitzins unangetastet. Dieser befindet sich nun schon seit 2016 mit -0,1 Prozent auf einem historischem Tiefstand.
Der dadurch schwache Yen führt dazu, dass die japanische Exportindustrie derzeit scheinbar(!) Rekordgewinne für sich verbuchen kann. Denn in den aktuellen Jahresprognosen japanischer Unternehmen ist die Mehrheit der Gewinne auf Währungsgewinne zurückzuführen - im Falle von Toyota sprechen wir sogar von mehr als zwei Drittel.
Während Tokio also brummt, ziehen andernorts dunkle Wolken über Japan auf.
Schattenseiten im Land der aufgehenden Sonne
Denn rein technisch gesehen, befindet sich Japan in einer Rezession.Aufgrund der schwachen Binnennachfrage rutschte das japanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt im vierten Quartal ins Minus und liegt damit nun zwei Quartale hintereinander in Negativterritorium (-3,3 % in Q3/23, -0,4 % in Q4/23). Das ist zwar nicht das erste Mal, dass Japan sich in einer Rezession befindet, wohl aber das erste Mal bei gleichzeitigem Anstieg des Nikkei-Indexes.
Warum aber scheint der japanische Aktienmarkt gegenüber der Wirtschaftslage des Landes dieses Mal so resilient zu sein? Es ist dasselbe Lied, das nahezu überall gespielt wird: KI - und der Einfluss Nvidias, der sich wie ein Schleier (auch) über die wirtschaftliche Realität Japans legt. Doch ist diese Euphorie von selbiger Fragilität geprägt, wie in den späten 1980ern, als die Bank of Japan unter einem enormen Druck stand, erstmals die Zinssätze wieder zu erhöhen.
Damals begann damit der lange Abstieg Japans und des Nikkei-Indexes und auch wenn dieses Mal die Gefahr nicht von überteuernden Grundstückspreisen zu kommen scheint, so sind durchaus Risse erkennbar: Denn über die Jahre haben sich japanische Banken massiv mit ausländischen Anleihen und Vermögenswerten eingedeckt.
Die Rückkehr der Zinsdifferenzgeschäfte
Finanziert werden diese durch die billigen Kreditraten. Doch wehe, wenn die japanische Notenbank die Zinssätze erhöht: Dann nämlich wird aus dem einträglichen Geschäft ein Fass ohne Boden. Die Zinsdifferenz würde zunächst schrumpfen und am Ende müssten diese Banken sogar noch etwas draufzahlen.Dieses gegenwärtig immer mehr ansteigende Risiko birgt enormes Explosionspotenzial: Denn um aus dem sich selbst geschaufelten Schuldengrab wieder herauszukommen, wären diese Banken gezwungen, all diese nun »wertlosen« Vermögenswerte wieder abzustoßen:
Infolgedessen würde der Markt mit Anleihen überflutet, was abermals die Kurse weiter sinken und die Renditen in die Höhe schnellen lassen würde: Eine Belastungsprobe für die ohnehin schon unter Stress stehenden Klein- und Regionalbanken in den USA.
Doch dazu müssten die japanischen Zinssätze überhaupt erst mal erhöht werden, und dann auch noch in einem Ausmaß, das groß genug sein müsste, um bei den Banken irreparable Schäden anzurichten. Im Endeffekt reden wir hier also von mehreren Erhöhungen, die nacheinander geschehen müssten. Genau das schließt der japanische Notenbankpräsident Shinichi Uchida jedoch kategorisch aus.
Japan: Weitere Risiken
Dennoch empfiehlt es sich, wachsam zu bleiben, denn wie der Fall der Aozora-Bank gezeigt hat, kann auch die Gefahr vonseiten der Vermögenswerte stammen: Nämlich dann, wenn es sich dabei um US-Gewerbeimmobilien handelt.Auch muss sich die japanische Notenbank gut überlegen, wie sie die Inflation wieder einzudämmen gedenkt, nachdem Zinserhöhungen für Uchida keine Option darstellen.
Zu guter Letzt: Erinnert ihr euch noch an das mit Ausrufezeichen versehene »scheinbar(!)«, als ich über die japanischen Exporte schrieb?
Es wird gerne vergessen, dass Japans Exportindustrie aus mehr als nur der Halbleiter- und Automobilbranche besteht. Denn die Realität sieht leider so aus, dass die japanische Exportindustrie insgesamt sogar rückläufig ist.
Fazit/tl;dr: Finger weg von asiatischen Aktien?
Der Schluss legt nahe, dass hinter dem Aufstieg des Nikkei-Indexes mehr Schein als Sein zu stecken scheint. Ein Einstieg in den japanischen Aktienmarkt soll also gut abgewogen werden. Denn nebst bekannten Imponderabilien lauern in Japan zusätzlich einige Besonderheiten.China steckt dagegen nach wie vor fest in der Krise. Eine Fortsetzung des Preisverfalls chinesischer Aktien kann derzeit nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Zusätzlich ist Peking auch nicht bereit, seinen Kurs großartig zu verändern. Aller Voraussicht nach steht daher China noch ein längerer Leidensweg bevor, bis der Druck auch Peking irgendwann groß genug sein dürfte, um die so dringend benötigten Reformen auf den Weg zu bringen.
Sowohl der japanische als auch chinesische Aktienmarkt sind daher sehr mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Wer unbedingt jetzt in Aktien einsteigen will, ist am US-amerikanischen oder dem europäischen Markt eindeutig besser beraten.
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Dieser Beitrag wurde in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Blog Börsenoptimismus verfasst.
👇 Hier 👇 geht's zum vollständigen Artikel (inkl. aller Bilder und Charts):
US-Aktien im Höhenflug! Doch was ist mit Japan und China?!
2024.03.01 06:35 prajnene X-Ray Inspection System Market Overview, Key Players, and Future Outlook
The global x-ray inspection system market size was valued at USD 2.27 billion in 2022 and is anticipated to grow from USD 2.37 billion in 2023 to USD 3.44 billion by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.4% during the forecast period.
The global X-Ray Inspection System Market is experiencing a significant increase in demand, driven by the escalating need for accurate and efficient inspection processes across various industries. X-ray inspection systems play a crucial role in ensuring product quality, safety, and compliance with regulatory standards. This article delves into important aspects of the X-ray inspection system market, including major players, segmentation, factors fueling growth, regional analysis, and emerging trends in the industry.
Browse Report:
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/x-ray-inspection-system-market-105227
Key Players: X-Ray Inspection System Market
The X-ray inspection system market is segmented based on technology, application, and end-user industries.
By Technology:
Computed Tomography (CT)
Computed Radiography (CR)
Digital Radiography (DR)
By Application:
Quality Control & Assurance
Contamination Detection
Structural Integrity Verification
By End-User Industry:
Manufacturing
Aerospace & Defense
Food & Beverage
Pharmaceuticals
Electronics
Driving Factors: X-Ray Inspection System Market
Several factors contribute to the growth of the X-ray inspection system market:
The market's growth varies across regions, with key contributors including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Factors such as industrialization, regulatory compliance, and technological advancements influence regional market dynamics.
Industry Trends: X-Ray Inspection System Market
The global X-ray inspection system market is experiencing substantial growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory requirements, and industry-specific demands. Key players continue to innovate, contributing to the market's evolution as it becomes an integral component of quality control across diverse industries. As industries strive for higher standards, the X-ray inspection system market is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.
submitted by prajnene to u/prajnene [link] [comments]
The global X-Ray Inspection System Market is experiencing a significant increase in demand, driven by the escalating need for accurate and efficient inspection processes across various industries. X-ray inspection systems play a crucial role in ensuring product quality, safety, and compliance with regulatory standards. This article delves into important aspects of the X-ray inspection system market, including major players, segmentation, factors fueling growth, regional analysis, and emerging trends in the industry.
Browse Report:
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/x-ray-inspection-system-market-105227
Key Players: X-Ray Inspection System Market
- North Star Imaging Inc. (U.S.)
- Nikon Metrology, Inc. (U.S.)
- Nordson Corporation (U.S.)
- YXLON International GmbH (Germany)
- VJ Group, Inc. (U.S.)
- Mettler Toledo International Inc. (U.S.)
- Ametek, Inc. (U.S.)
- Viscom AG (Germany)
- ViTrox Corporation Berhad (Malaysia)
The X-ray inspection system market is segmented based on technology, application, and end-user industries.
By Technology:
Computed Tomography (CT)
Computed Radiography (CR)
Digital Radiography (DR)
By Application:
Quality Control & Assurance
Contamination Detection
Structural Integrity Verification
By End-User Industry:
Manufacturing
Aerospace & Defense
Food & Beverage
Pharmaceuticals
Electronics
Driving Factors: X-Ray Inspection System Market
Several factors contribute to the growth of the X-ray inspection system market:
- Stringent Regulatory Standards: Increasing regulatory standards regarding product safety and quality drive the adoption of X-ray inspection systems across industries.
- Rising Concerns for Food Safety: The food and beverage industry's emphasis on quality control and contamination detection fuels the demand for X-ray inspection systems.
- Advancements in Technology: Continuous advancements in X-ray technology, such as improved resolution and faster inspection speeds, attract industries looking to enhance their inspection processes.
The market's growth varies across regions, with key contributors including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Factors such as industrialization, regulatory compliance, and technological advancements influence regional market dynamics.
Industry Trends: X-Ray Inspection System Market
- Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI): The incorporation of AI and machine learning in X-ray inspection systems enhances the accuracy and efficiency of inspections, reducing false positives.
- Miniaturization of Systems: There is a trend toward developing compact and portable X-ray inspection systems, facilitating on-site inspections and reducing the overall footprint of inspection setups.
- Increased Automation: Industries are increasingly adopting automated X-ray inspection processes to improve throughput, reduce human error, and enhance overall operational efficiency.
The global X-ray inspection system market is experiencing substantial growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory requirements, and industry-specific demands. Key players continue to innovate, contributing to the market's evolution as it becomes an integral component of quality control across diverse industries. As industries strive for higher standards, the X-ray inspection system market is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.
2024.02.27 06:05 prajnene X-Ray Inspection System Market Trends, Growth, and Competitive Landscape
The global x-ray inspection system market size was valued at USD 2.27 billion in 2022 and is anticipated to grow from USD 2.37 billion in 2023 to USD 3.44 billion by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.4% during the forecast period.
A notable upswing in demand characterizes the global X-Ray Inspection System Market, propelled by the growing requirement for effective and precise inspection processes across diverse industries. X-ray inspection systems assume a pivotal role in guaranteeing product quality, safety, and adherence to regulatory standards. This article explores essential facets of the X-ray inspection system market, encompassing key players, segmentation, driving factors, regional analysis, and emerging trends within the industry.
Browse Report:
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/x-ray-inspection-system-market-105227
Key Players: X-Ray Inspection System Market
The X-ray inspection system market is segmented based on technology, application, and end-user industries.
By Technology:
Computed Tomography (CT)
Computed Radiography (CR)
Digital Radiography (DR)
By Application:
Quality Control & Assurance
Contamination Detection
Structural Integrity Verification
By End-User Industry:
Manufacturing
Aerospace & Defense
Food & Beverage
Pharmaceuticals
Electronics
Driving Factors: X-Ray Inspection System Market
Several factors contribute to the growth of the X-ray inspection system market:
The market's growth varies across regions, with key contributors including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Factors such as industrialization, regulatory compliance, and technological advancements influence regional market dynamics.
Industry Trends: X-Ray Inspection System Market
The global X-ray inspection system market is experiencing substantial growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory requirements, and industry-specific demands. Key players continue to innovate, contributing to the market's evolution as it becomes an integral component of quality control across diverse industries. As industries strive for higher standards, the X-ray inspection system market is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.
submitted by prajnene to u/prajnene [link] [comments]
A notable upswing in demand characterizes the global X-Ray Inspection System Market, propelled by the growing requirement for effective and precise inspection processes across diverse industries. X-ray inspection systems assume a pivotal role in guaranteeing product quality, safety, and adherence to regulatory standards. This article explores essential facets of the X-ray inspection system market, encompassing key players, segmentation, driving factors, regional analysis, and emerging trends within the industry.
Browse Report:
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/x-ray-inspection-system-market-105227
Key Players: X-Ray Inspection System Market
- North Star Imaging Inc. (U.S.)
- Nikon Metrology, Inc. (U.S.)
- Nordson Corporation (U.S.)
- YXLON International GmbH (Germany)
- VJ Group, Inc. (U.S.)
- Mettler Toledo International Inc. (U.S.)
- Ametek, Inc. (U.S.)
- Viscom AG (Germany)
- ViTrox Corporation Berhad (Malaysia)
The X-ray inspection system market is segmented based on technology, application, and end-user industries.
By Technology:
Computed Tomography (CT)
Computed Radiography (CR)
Digital Radiography (DR)
By Application:
Quality Control & Assurance
Contamination Detection
Structural Integrity Verification
By End-User Industry:
Manufacturing
Aerospace & Defense
Food & Beverage
Pharmaceuticals
Electronics
Driving Factors: X-Ray Inspection System Market
Several factors contribute to the growth of the X-ray inspection system market:
- Stringent Regulatory Standards: Increasing regulatory standards regarding product safety and quality drive the adoption of X-ray inspection systems across industries.
- Rising Concerns for Food Safety: The food and beverage industry's emphasis on quality control and contamination detection fuels the demand for X-ray inspection systems.
- Advancements in Technology: Continuous advancements in X-ray technology, such as improved resolution and faster inspection speeds, attract industries looking to enhance their inspection processes.
The market's growth varies across regions, with key contributors including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Factors such as industrialization, regulatory compliance, and technological advancements influence regional market dynamics.
Industry Trends: X-Ray Inspection System Market
- Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI): The incorporation of AI and machine learning in X-ray inspection systems enhances the accuracy and efficiency of inspections, reducing false positives.
- Miniaturization of Systems: There is a trend toward developing compact and portable X-ray inspection systems, facilitating on-site inspections and reducing the overall footprint of inspection setups.
- Increased Automation: Industries are increasingly adopting automated X-ray inspection processes to improve throughput, reduce human error, and enhance overall operational efficiency.
The global X-ray inspection system market is experiencing substantial growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory requirements, and industry-specific demands. Key players continue to innovate, contributing to the market's evolution as it becomes an integral component of quality control across diverse industries. As industries strive for higher standards, the X-ray inspection system market is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.
2024.02.26 10:13 mootheworld New to analog photography. Overwhelmed with camera options.
TL;DR: Should I get the Minolta SRT 101, Canon FT QL, Pentax SP1000, Minolta X-300s or a Zenit (don't know which models he's selling, but which one would you recommend)?
I've always shot analog pictures with my Konica point and shoot and I also have a Canon R50 which I use for school, but I've decided I also want to dive into manual film cameras.
I've been looking at a Minolta SRT 101 (+ 50mm f1.7 lens) and a Canon FT QL (+ 50mm f1.8 lens) and they've both really caught my attention. They're in an almost perfect condition and I've really been stuck deciding on which one I should get?
Some other cameras that I've been considering were the Pentax SP1000 (55mm f2) and the Minolta X-300s (50mm f1.7). A friend of mine also told me he knows someone who sells Zenith camera's, but don't know which models he's selling.
I've been reading reviews and videos on youtube and I just can't seem to make up my mind. Could you guys help me in making my decision and explain to me your thought process as to why you picked that one? Would be much appreciated <3
Edit: THANK YOU FOR ALL OF YOUR ADVICE EVERYBODY!!!
Edit 2: I went to a photography fair yesterday and got myself a Nikon N2000! I'm excited to start shooting with it <3
submitted by mootheworld to AnalogCommunity [link] [comments]
I've always shot analog pictures with my Konica point and shoot and I also have a Canon R50 which I use for school, but I've decided I also want to dive into manual film cameras.
I've been looking at a Minolta SRT 101 (+ 50mm f1.7 lens) and a Canon FT QL (+ 50mm f1.8 lens) and they've both really caught my attention. They're in an almost perfect condition and I've really been stuck deciding on which one I should get?
Some other cameras that I've been considering were the Pentax SP1000 (55mm f2) and the Minolta X-300s (50mm f1.7). A friend of mine also told me he knows someone who sells Zenith camera's, but don't know which models he's selling.
I've been reading reviews and videos on youtube and I just can't seem to make up my mind. Could you guys help me in making my decision and explain to me your thought process as to why you picked that one? Would be much appreciated <3
Edit: THANK YOU FOR ALL OF YOUR ADVICE EVERYBODY!!!
Edit 2: I went to a photography fair yesterday and got myself a Nikon N2000! I'm excited to start shooting with it <3
2024.02.21 10:00 manojnath Fraud done by Amazon, Amazon customer service is a disaster now.
Hi Everyone,
TL;DR: Amazon sent wrong items and now denying refund. I have already sent the legal notice to Amazon and its Seller Appario and have also raised chargeback as payment was done via credit card(ICICI Bank).
I have placed an order on Amazon India website on 30/01/2024. I have ordered Nikon Z6 II camera and 50MM Nikon prime lens total worth INR 2,22,998 for my friend residing in Hyderabad.
I thought that delivery was an open box delivery. At the time of the delivery, the delivery agent refused to deliver the product without an OTP. Once OTP was given, the delivery agent handed the box and left, without opening it. Immediately my friend made an unboxing video as the delivery agent didn’t open it for us. While filming the unboxing video he discovered that wrong items were delivered in the box and immediately Amazon customer service was notified regarding the same.
The first contact with Amazon's support was done on 31/01/2024 (21:30PM) at night, which is the date of delivery itself. After that several follow-ups were made and proof of unboxing video and photos were shared with the Amazon support and executive customer relations teams. The items which we received were Weighing machine and Wi-Fi Security Camera instead of Nikon Z6 II plus 50MM prime lens (31/12/2024).
Next day 01/02/2024 we received confirmation mail from the Amazon team regarding the investigation is under process and they will update me.
They never updated me, and I kept on doing the follow ups and all they did was sent generic/template mails to me. I have shared multiple times the evidence of wrong items received which are unboxing video and photos.
Then on 03/02/2024, I received follow-up mail from Amazon saying that the investigation is still going on and they will update me. Frustration led me to contact the customer relations head team on February 3, 2024, requesting proof of delivery, specifically the open box delivery images as customary for high-value items.
On February 5th, Amazon decided, without any supporting evidence, that the correct items were delivered to my friend, despite my repeated submission of ample proof illustrating the incorrect items received.
I have sent the legal notice to Amazon offices in India (Delhi and Bangalore).
The chargeback request is also raised with the ICICI Bank.
Twitter Post: https://twitter.com/manojnath_9/status/1754502150502183057
Suggestions would be really appreciated.
submitted by manojnath to IndianGaming [link] [comments]
TL;DR: Amazon sent wrong items and now denying refund. I have already sent the legal notice to Amazon and its Seller Appario and have also raised chargeback as payment was done via credit card(ICICI Bank).
I have placed an order on Amazon India website on 30/01/2024. I have ordered Nikon Z6 II camera and 50MM Nikon prime lens total worth INR 2,22,998 for my friend residing in Hyderabad.
I thought that delivery was an open box delivery. At the time of the delivery, the delivery agent refused to deliver the product without an OTP. Once OTP was given, the delivery agent handed the box and left, without opening it. Immediately my friend made an unboxing video as the delivery agent didn’t open it for us. While filming the unboxing video he discovered that wrong items were delivered in the box and immediately Amazon customer service was notified regarding the same.
The first contact with Amazon's support was done on 31/01/2024 (21:30PM) at night, which is the date of delivery itself. After that several follow-ups were made and proof of unboxing video and photos were shared with the Amazon support and executive customer relations teams. The items which we received were Weighing machine and Wi-Fi Security Camera instead of Nikon Z6 II plus 50MM prime lens (31/12/2024).
Next day 01/02/2024 we received confirmation mail from the Amazon team regarding the investigation is under process and they will update me.
They never updated me, and I kept on doing the follow ups and all they did was sent generic/template mails to me. I have shared multiple times the evidence of wrong items received which are unboxing video and photos.
Then on 03/02/2024, I received follow-up mail from Amazon saying that the investigation is still going on and they will update me. Frustration led me to contact the customer relations head team on February 3, 2024, requesting proof of delivery, specifically the open box delivery images as customary for high-value items.
On February 5th, Amazon decided, without any supporting evidence, that the correct items were delivered to my friend, despite my repeated submission of ample proof illustrating the incorrect items received.
I have sent the legal notice to Amazon offices in India (Delhi and Bangalore).
The chargeback request is also raised with the ICICI Bank.
Twitter Post: https://twitter.com/manojnath_9/status/1754502150502183057
Suggestions would be really appreciated.
2024.02.21 09:56 manojnath Amazon sent wrong items and now denying refund/return
Hi Everyone,
TL;DR: Amazon sent wrong items and now denying refund. I have already sent the legal notice to Amazon and its Seller Appario and have also raised chargeback as payment was done via credit card(ICICI Bank).
I have placed an order on Amazon India website on 30/01/2024. I have ordered Nikon Z6 II camera and 50MM Nikon prime lens total worth INR 2,22,998 for my friend residing in Hyderabad.
I thought that delivery was an open box delivery. At the time of the delivery, the delivery agent refused to deliver the product without an OTP. Once OTP was given, the delivery agent handed the box and left, without opening it. Immediately my friend made an unboxing video as the delivery agent didn’t open it for us. While filming the unboxing video he discovered that wrong items were delivered in the box and immediately Amazon customer service was notified regarding the same.
The first contact with Amazon's support was done on 31/01/2024 (21:30PM) at night, which is the date of delivery itself. After that several follow-ups were made and proof of unboxing video and photos were shared with the Amazon support and executive customer relations teams. The items which we received were Weighing machine and Wi-Fi Security Camera instead of Nikon Z6 II plus 50MM prime lens (31/12/2024).
Next day 01/02/2024 we received confirmation mail from the Amazon team regarding the investigation is under process and they will update me.
They never updated me, and I kept on doing the follow ups and all they did was sent generic/template mails to me. I have shared multiple times the evidence of wrong items received which are unboxing video and photos.
Then on 03/02/2024, I received follow-up mail from Amazon saying that the investigation is still going on and they will update me. Frustration led me to contact the customer relations head team on February 3, 2024, requesting proof of delivery, specifically the open box delivery images as customary for high-value items.
On February 5th, Amazon decided, without any supporting evidence, that the correct items were delivered to my friend, despite my repeated submission of ample proof illustrating the incorrect items received.
I have sent the legal notice to Amazon offices in India (Delhi and Bangalore).
The chargeback request is also raised with the ICICI Bank.
Twitter Post: https://twitter.com/manojnath_9/status/1754502150502183057
Suggestions would be really appreciated.
submitted by manojnath to LegalAdviceIndia [link] [comments]
TL;DR: Amazon sent wrong items and now denying refund. I have already sent the legal notice to Amazon and its Seller Appario and have also raised chargeback as payment was done via credit card(ICICI Bank).
I have placed an order on Amazon India website on 30/01/2024. I have ordered Nikon Z6 II camera and 50MM Nikon prime lens total worth INR 2,22,998 for my friend residing in Hyderabad.
I thought that delivery was an open box delivery. At the time of the delivery, the delivery agent refused to deliver the product without an OTP. Once OTP was given, the delivery agent handed the box and left, without opening it. Immediately my friend made an unboxing video as the delivery agent didn’t open it for us. While filming the unboxing video he discovered that wrong items were delivered in the box and immediately Amazon customer service was notified regarding the same.
The first contact with Amazon's support was done on 31/01/2024 (21:30PM) at night, which is the date of delivery itself. After that several follow-ups were made and proof of unboxing video and photos were shared with the Amazon support and executive customer relations teams. The items which we received were Weighing machine and Wi-Fi Security Camera instead of Nikon Z6 II plus 50MM prime lens (31/12/2024).
Next day 01/02/2024 we received confirmation mail from the Amazon team regarding the investigation is under process and they will update me.
They never updated me, and I kept on doing the follow ups and all they did was sent generic/template mails to me. I have shared multiple times the evidence of wrong items received which are unboxing video and photos.
Then on 03/02/2024, I received follow-up mail from Amazon saying that the investigation is still going on and they will update me. Frustration led me to contact the customer relations head team on February 3, 2024, requesting proof of delivery, specifically the open box delivery images as customary for high-value items.
On February 5th, Amazon decided, without any supporting evidence, that the correct items were delivered to my friend, despite my repeated submission of ample proof illustrating the incorrect items received.
I have sent the legal notice to Amazon offices in India (Delhi and Bangalore).
The chargeback request is also raised with the ICICI Bank.
Twitter Post: https://twitter.com/manojnath_9/status/1754502150502183057
Suggestions would be really appreciated.