• The most obvious point is that Madame X shows up directly in the prologue, to the Maria that becomes the one we meet in the Chrysalis manor. She clearly already has some amount of control over time at this point as well, meaning she had likely already claimed her world's time diamond but was unable to stop Indriad using it.
• Nymiera clearly still remembers the old world we learn about in the Third Layer. She knows Adrest by name and recognizes his presence within the player, hints at the emergence of the Zeight in the present day, and knows about the Archetype. Madame X, in the first cutscene where she's introduced at Blacksteeple, immediately refers to the player as the Interceptor, and she also clearly recognizes the power the Melia gains from the Archetype in the Bad Future. They in general seem to possess similar knowledge of major concepts like these.
  • Although you could argue that she might simply have learned about these things from Clear and Kieran, the fact that we see Madame X specifically talking to Maria in the prologue shows that she was at least aware of the Archetype already.
• This is an admittedly very small point that is potentially a coincidence, but I still want to acknowledge it: Madame X's suit seems to be evoking the image of a dragon and mostly uses dark colors. The two characters that we know are directly descended from Nymiera, Alexandra and Damian, favor Dragon and Dark type Pokemon, respectively.
• We know that Nymiera dual wielded crystal swords as her primary weapons rather than relying on Pokemon, and Madame X engages in combat almost exclusively with her sword. The only exception that we see is her attacking the player with her Yveltal at Blacksteeple Castle.
• We see the aforementioned crystal swords, as well as the corpse of Hazuki's Aegislash, within the storage room of the Chrysalis Manor, which all but confirms that Nymiera and the Defenders of Aevium were soundly defeated by Indriad in this timeline and he claimed their weapons as trophies.
  • As a small thought on the full fate of her world's defenders: Vivian was already dead because of the botched ritual, Hazuki was most likely killed, Anju was defeated but taken alive and imprisoned, likely to act as a potential vessel for Indriad (which is something I'd also like to talk about but that's best saved for another post). Given how cruel of a man Indriad is and how much he likes to torment people, I think that crippling Nymiera so she could no longer stand against him and then forcing her to live with the pain of her failure sounds like the type of thing he'd do. This is more of a headcanon, though, not something I'm actually trying to present as a major evidence for the theory.
• Because of .Karma Files we have explicit confirmation that Nymiera is an incarnation of Xerneas; it's a little on the nose for sure, but this can explain why she so heavily associates with the letter X, including why she took her name and took the name of Team Xen for her own, new organization even though it otherwise seems to be completely unrelated to the Team Xen of the Miera Region.
• If her mask is destroyed at the Pyramid, and she's effectively defeated prior to Clear and Kieran's intervention, she makes a remark about how the battle would have gone differently if not for her suit. It's vague, yes, but the implication is that the suit places some sort of limit on her power and she'd be far stronger without it, as while wearing it she can't fight at full capacity. This explains why she only wields one sword instead of two, as she likely can't dual wield without her full physical strength.
  • This next bit is straying into headcanon territory, so I don't fully count it for the theory, but we don't know exactly why she's wearing the suit; it's definitely not just to hide her identity, because there'd be far easier ways of doing that. I like to think that it's necessary for her to survive and limits her power to keep her from overexerting herself, similar to Darth Vader's suit from Star Wars. This would make sense with the idea I have that she was grievously wounded by Indriad even though she survived her fight with him.
• We know that there's a second Blacksteeple Castle on the same island that's hidden behind a protective barrier, which only Madame X can pass through. It's likely that this is the original Blacksteeple Castle and the one that we occupy during the prison arc is just a replica. We see in the Bad Future that Blacksteeple Castle has some sort of connection to Nymiera with the mosaic that we see. It's confirmed by Madame X that Blacksteeple was once Nymiera's castle, that she lost in the war mentioned in the legend that Nymiera tells to us. This would explain why Madame X is so protective of the original castle in the present day and why she can access it.
  • This would also explain why so much Xerneas iconography is still included in the replica of the castle.
• We already know from the Regi sidequests in V13.5 that Nymiera's view of morality was a bit... warped, and she was willing to do some truly inhumane and manipulative shit if she thought it was necessary for the good of the many. Madame X's methods are obviously far more extreme than Nymiera's ever were, but even though her motivations and ultimate goal are unclear there's still hints that all of the things she's responsible for are, to her, just a means to an end. If Madame X is Nymiera, with her spirit having been broken by her failure to stop her world's Indriad, it's not hard to see how that already warped "Good of the many no matter the cost" mentality could evolve into doing absolutely anything to achieve her goals.
• The underground chamber in Kugearen where we find the Weird Diary has a lot going on, but the notable things are the statues of the Defenders,drawing of the Archetype, and map of present day Aevium. Hazuki's is missing, and Anju and Nymiera's are destroyed, with the game specifically noting that their eyes are torn out. There is no statue of Hazuki, and Vivian's is not only intact, but poised for battle. To break this all down a bit:
  • The Archetype symbol being so prominent as well as the present-day map show that it's someone who can both time travel and knows about the Archetype
  • The three statues are of the Defenders that we know will suffer a poor fate.
    • Hazuki's is missing because she is the only that survived.
    • Vivian's is standing and complete because she was the only one able to mostly die on her own terms, but her spirit still struggled because of the failed spell; being poised for battle still lines up with the curse placed on her reincarnations.
    • Anju and Nymiera are both missing in the present day and were never seen again. Anju's fate is ambiguous, but obviously there's something going on with Angie (Which I have another theory about, but again, story for another post). Nymiera's spirit has appeared, but clearly can only do so much, as her only real act aside from talking to the player is transferring Hazuki's power to Saki.
  • Nymiera fancied herself an artist, and seemed to especially like working with stone given the many statues in Blacksteeple as well as the multiple stone carvings in her room.
  • All of this points to someone who can reliably time travel, knows of the archetype, has knowledge of Rift Pokemon, and has an intimate knowledge of the Defenders and their fates. Madame X is the only person who meets all of those first few qualifications, and it's also worth noting that Madame X's suit distinctly lacks eyes, similar to the two statues.

• Indriad is confirmed at the end of .Karma files is an avatar of Yveltal in the same way that Nymiera is one of Xerneas.
• In the Bad Future, when Melanie summons her Yveltal, she explicitly refers to it as her father. Melanie is a bad future version of Melia, Melia is in some capacity connected to Maria and is still explicitly related to Indriad's kids, the implication is pretty clear.
• There are other physical avatars of legendaries in the game: Spacea and Tiempa, who both can transform into the legendaries they are the avatars of. I don't know if it's ever been confirmed if Griselda was an explicit avatar of Giratina, but nonetheless, she was permanently transformed into one and can't change back. It's not unreasonable to see something similar happening to Indriad given that we don't know his final fate in the game's main timeline yet.
• Yes, this means there's some fucky shit going on with Angie, I have ideas about that as well but that also takes a ton of explanation and is best saved for a different post.

• There is very obviously a connection between Nim and Nymiera. The game's placed a lot of emphasis on Nim's relationship to Alexandra and Damian, Nymiera's direct descendents, and Nim took her name from Nymiera's. When Nim appears in the flashback with Alexaandra and Damian she's calling out the names of Hazuki and the player character, yelling for them to watch out. This implies four things:
  • Nim originates in the past and was sent into the future.
  • Given that we haven't met her in the past, she probably comes into existence in the state that she already was.
  • Nim will meet the player and Hazuki in the past during some dangerous event, most likely a final battle with Indriad before Storm-9 fully hits, as we still don't know the final fate of the Defenders.
  • She doesn't say Anju and Nymiera's names, implying either something already happened to them or Nim was cut off in the middle of her sentence when she was sent forward in time.
• Despite Madame X claiming that Nymiera is dead, her spirit has appeared multiple times and is still very aware of the ongoing plot. Her body, however, has not.
• Clear going out of her way to manipulate Nim shows that Madame X likely has an interest in Nim herself.
• While she obviously prefers to use her psychic abilities, Nim's still clearly proficient with melee weapons as there's a handful of times where she uses her... hairpin things as a polearm of sorts.

1. Does Nim Deathmantle trigger? (I am pretty sure yes)
   
2. Can I stack the triggers in such a way that I can pay for Nim Deathmantle before the creature gets exiled?
   

• [~16th August][Vietnam for ~10 days] Depart from Europe -> Hanoi. Plan is to see Hanoi, Ha Long Bay, and day trips to NimBin. Last 2-3 days for intra-flights to Hoi An.
• [~26th of August][Thailand for 7 days.] Hoi An -> Bangkok. Limiting myself to day trips around Bangkok as it’s an airport hub. Could consider 3 days in the south as “stop-over” (Ko Samui?) .
• [~2 September][10 Days in Malesia] Flying to Penang. Staying there for a few days to sample the local food and explore around the city. Then taking a train down to Kuala Lumpur to meet with some friends on the 5th of September. We’ll eventually go onwards to SIngapore the 10th of September, where we’ll stay a few days before they depart back to Europe. (this is the only obligated stop, as i'm meeting friends)
• [~13 September][Travel across China for 18 days] Singapore -> Mainland China. I’ve been to Beijing & The Great Wall already, so I’m going to skip them this time. My plan is to land in Shanghai and move around with trains for <15 days (visa limit). My idea for the trip is Shanghai & nearby (Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing), Chengdu and ending in Hong Kong for ~4 extra days (I have some friends there).
• [~2 October][Taipei 8 days] Hong Kong -> Taipei, stay there for ~8 days. Only do day trips from there.
• [~10 October][Seoul 7 days] Fly to Seoul, stay there for ~7 days. Only day trips from there. (Suwon, DMZ)
• [~17 October][Japan 10 Days] I’ve been to Japan already ~20 days in a previous trip, in Osaka, Kyoto and Tokyo so I’m going to focus on different places. Fly to Fukuoka, Shinkansen for Hiroshima -> Kobe -> Tokyo.
• [~26 October] Tokyo to San Francisco. Short layover in the USA in California. Seems well connected from Tokyo and then coming back from there to Europe.

Happy Tuesday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 37 points to 6652 ▲0.6%

▌In today's MB:

• Premium Leisure suspended after tender
• Semirara Q1 profit: P6.5-B (down 28%)
• QUESTION: How do you decide what to cover?
  • My sources of info
  • My decision-making process
  • Why I talked about "those banks"

▌Daily meme Subscribe (it's free) Today's email

▌Main stories covered:

• [UPDATE] Premium Leisure suspended after successful tender offer... The PSE suspended Premium Leisure Corp [PLC suspended] [link] for a minimum public ownership violation after a successful tender offer by Belle Corporation [BEL 2.08 ▲4.0%; 36% avgVol] took 6,172,192,242 shares of PLC off the market and reduced PLC’s public float to just 0.45%. BEL disclosed that it owns 99.55% of PLC’s outstanding shares after the tendered shares were crossed and settled. The tender offer price offered by BEL for PLC shares was ₱0.85/share, which was a 15% premium to PLC’s pre-announcement price, but was an 8% discount to the market price after traders learned of BEL’s intent to conduct a tender offer for PLC shares and delist the company.
  
  • MB: All BEL had to do was get 95% of PLC’s outstanding shares to delist, so “mission accomplished.” BEL will now go through the process of delisting PLC from the stock exchange. Any PLC shareholders that did not tender their shares to BEL during the tender offer process still own their PLC shares today, and will still own their PLC shares when PLC is delisted. The only difference is that PLC will be a privately held company, and there will be no easy public market to facilitate the buying and selling of its shares. Admittedly, that’s a huge difference, and the threat of being made into a private company shareholder is one of the more compelling parts of any tender offer sales pitch.
• [EARNINGS] Semirara Q1 profit: ₱6.5-B (down 28%)... Semirara Mining and Power [SCC 32.10 ▼2.0%; 74% avgVol] [link] posted a Q1 net income of ₱6.5 billion, down 27.6% y/y from its Q1/23 net income of ₱9.0 billion, and up 23% q/q from its Q4/23 net income of ₱5.3 billion. SCC attributed the lower y/y performance to a combination of higher coal-related expenses and lower market prices for electricity and coal. Revenues were down 11% due to the lower selling prices, despite “increased coal and electricity sales volumes”. Coal shipments were up 37% y/y to 4.8 million metric tons, but the average selling price dropped 33% from ₱4,427/ton to ₱2,978/ton. The power segment revenues fell 25% y/y due to a 28% drop in the average selling price of electricity.
  
  • MB: Some of that decline in the average selling price for coal was attributable to SCC, since the company noted that it sold a higher proportion of “non-commercial grade coal” in its shipments. On the bright side, SCC reported higher power plant availability as it improved from 87% to 92%, and higher average capacity which improved from 688 MW to 702 MW. Better plant availability means that SCC doesn’t have to buy as much expensive power on the open market to satisfy its growing portfolio of power sales contracts. This is why downtime is a double killer. Downtime is a fact of life, but there is likely room for improvement whenever the downtime exceeds the coal power plant annual average of 10%. Prices go up and down, but SCC is getting better at managing the variables that are within their control.
• [QUESTION] How do you decide what to cover?... This is just part of a larger question from reader crossco88 that I’d like to show in its entirety because I think the answer is important. Here goes: “Where do you get your information from? How do you decide which info to share with your readers? Like the Bank of Australia and Bank of England rates decision. What made you say that this information is relevant to share with your readers?” This is a great series of questions to ask of any information source. Let’s get into it! Sources of information: The vast majority of my stories are based on official disclosures from the PSE’s listed companies, which anyone can view on EDGE, the PSE’s disclosure server. After that, my second biggest news source is from the Philippines-based news outfits, like Philstar, Inquirer, Rappler, ABS-CBN, Manilla Bulletin, and BusinessWorld (among others). Then I pull potential stories from the meta-coverage of those sources, like blogs (Bilyonaryo). In this tier are nuggets that I pick up from participating in the PH-Fintwit space on Twitter, from moderating the PHInvest subreddit on Reddit, and from browsing the forums on Facebook and Investagrams. I pull calendar info directly from EDGE (PSE-related stuff) and the Philippine Statistics Authority (inflation and GDP). American dates come from this handy Market Watch page. The central bank announcements come from cbrates.com. Decision-making process: Several factors go into deciding what to write about. Primarily I care about whether something is interesting to me, and it’s important to know that what I care about is derivative of my background and my long-term investing style. Layered on top of that is whether or not I think it will be interesting to readers (this is a feeling that I’ve had to develop the hard way over the past five years), and whether or not I’m willing to invest the time required to read and research all the materials necessary to be able to speak about the issue in my own words. The final factor is whether or not I have something to say about the issue. I’ve let a lot of good “news” pass because I simply just don’t have anything worth adding to the conversation. Why I shared the banking info: I actually backspaced that stuff out of the International section yesterday, but I put it back in because I wanted to give a little insight into what I’m thinking about. As I said in my MB BOTTOM-LINE, my interest isn’t so much in what those banks are specifically doing as it is in what they’re saying about what they’re doing. Long-time readers will know that I’m pretty exposed to interest rate risk, both directly in the stocks that I own, but indirectly in terms of the overall thesis that I invest under, and I’m always looking to try and triangulate what is happening here with what other sophisticated actors are saying and doing elsewhere.
  
  • MB: I’m getting old, and even now I’m learning how to consume media better. I’ve taken more control of my own algorithm in terms of trimming out sources of news that are likely to distract me (basically all of those paid showbiz articles) and sources of news that seemed only angled to trigger my rage engagement (Twitter’s “For you” section). I seek out sources of news that are as pure to the source as possible, and I look for sources of opinion on that news that bring me value by exposing me to new ways of thinking about circumstances and data. My goal here is to improve my “signal to noise ratio”, where “signal” refers to content that is useful or informative, and “noise” refers to all the content that one might consume on any given day. Part of improving that ratio is asking these types of questions about the news sources from which I consume content. Maybe what I’m writing about isn’t very useful to your particular investing style. I could see how stories about a company’s management team might not be of interest to someone who trades on intra-day volume swings. And I don’t want to give the impression that I’m some super investor who uses a complex proprietary formula with inputs like the velocity of change in orange juice futures and the current interest rate in Nigeria. My trades don’t care about the Bank of Australia or the Bank of England exactly, but my trades care about inflation, and to some degree, they care about the global economy. While I am comfortable consuming what the BSP and the US Federal Reserve are saying about inflation, I like to use other points of reference to test what I’ve heard from the BSP and the Fed about the state of things. Maybe the reference to those central banks was a little bit too cute; there’s a (good) chance that I’ll forget to follow up and read that content for myself. But I wanted to show how I’m trying to work on the problem for myself and test my own thesis. I’ll try to be more clear about that in the future so that I’m not giving the impression that these data points should matter to all traders, or that they’re even materially important to my own trading style. Thanks for the question, crossco88!

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• $UUUU announces a transformative acquisition of Base Resources, creating a global leader in critical minerals production. The deal is valued at $375M and is expected to close in Q3 2024
  
• $XPEV will showcase AI-powered Smart EV innovations at the Beijing Auto Show 2024. The company will host a press conference on April 25th.
  
• 🚨3.18M FLOAT $WKEY awarded a project by Seychelles%20(SIX,by%20the%20Government%20of%20Seychelles.) to deliver the SeyID digital identity platform.
  
• 🚨32M FLOAT $NX announces the acquisition of Tyman, the deal is valued at $1.1 billion and is expected to close in the second half of 2024.
  
• $JKS to report First Quarter 2024 results on April 29.
  
• $NIU to report First Quarter 2024 financial results on May 20
  

• 🚨3.15M FLOAT $EXPR announced the potential sale of its retail stores and operations to a consortium led by WHP Global, with $35M in new financing.
  
• $PMETF announces strong assay results from the final 2023 drill hole program at the CV5 Spodumene Pegmatite in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Quebec.
  
• $XIACY CEO said the company will offer more details about its production capacity and delivery plan for the SU7 vehicle at the Beijing Auto Show
  
• $ANPCY has secured US and EU patents for its CellKeep slide that reduces over 70% of circulating tumor cell loss during microscopy, enhancing assay sensitivity.
  
• $PSYC CEO Daniel Jaros will be hosting a Q&A on Thursday 4:00 pm EST to answer shareholders' questions.
  
• $ILST appoints Todd Masse as CEO with updates coming soon regarding the change.
  

• Biden has signed off on a controversial bill that expands the surveillance granted to U.S. government agencies, which could severely impact the privacy of American citizens.
  
• Copper's Two-Year High eases as investors assess the next move for metals amid April's strong performance.
  
• Silver is on track for its biggest decline since December 4.
  
• The U.S. Debt to GDP ratio is projected to hit 100% by next year and soar past 150% within the next 25 years warns the Congressional Budget Office
  

This is a crossover fanfiction between original fiction titles: Nature of Predators by SpacePaladin15 and The Last Angel by Proximal Flame respectively. All credit and rights reserved goes to them for making such amazing science fiction settings that I wanted to put this together.
You can read The Last Angel here: Be warned, it's decently long, and at its third installment so far. I highly suggest reading it before reading this, or this story will not make sense.

\* Dining $: \~$100-200 \* Groceries $: \~$100-200 w/ Walmart \* Gas $: \~$70 \* Travel $: $0 \* Do you plan on using this card abroad for a significant length of time (study abroad, digital nomad, expat, extended travel)?: Nope \* Any other categories (examples: phone/internet, insurance) or stores (example: Amazon) with significant, regular credit card spend (the more you specify, the better): \* Electricity: $150 \* Internet: $50 \* Water: $30 \* Trash/Utilities: $60 \* Any other significant, regular credit card spend you didn't include above?: These are areas I'll usually spend for but I wouldn't say they're regular or consistent \* Gaming (Steam and PSN mostly): $50-200 \* Amazon: \~$50-200 \* Adaptive Equipmenet/Projects (See OTHER INFO): \~$50-500 \* Can you pay rent by credit card? If yes, list rent amount and if there's a fee for paying by credit card: I have a mortage, but I don't believe they'll accept credit cards 

\* If you answered "first credit card", are you an authorized user on any other cards?: Nope 

As an example of how the phenomena of the universe perform the work of devas in response to intense meditation for a single instant (ichinen) by the mind of the Original Buddha, we may take the occasion when a luminous object (hikari-mono) protected Nichiren from execution at Tatsunokuchi [Daibyaku Renge No.394, Dec. 1983].

This is part of the explanation by Sakuma Shō, Deputy Head of the Education Section of Soka Gakkai, of a story widely circulated among members of the Nichiren Sect. (Soka Gakkai is a lay movement based partly on the "True" Sect of Nichiren - Nichiren Sho Shū.) It is often included in biographies of Nichiren (1222-82), without any hint that it may not be true. Some Japanese scholars have analysed the different accounts, but as I have not seen a detailed examination of their authenticity in English I have thought it worthwhile to bring the evidence to view, for his followers today are numerous, vocal and influential.

Nichiren had antagonised the Military Government in Kamakura (Bakufu) by his criticisms of other sects, and had finally been accused of harbouring outlaws, and of cursing Japan.

He was sentenced to exile on the island of Sado, and on the way did apparently escape a covert attempt at execution. The account of the story of intervention by the devas (Indian deities) is found in Shuju Ofurumai Gosho, a work pieced together from four different sources.

In this account Nichiren is portrayed as being quite in command of the situation, eager to lay down his life immediately for the Lotus Sūtra, and yet encouraging his disciples with promises of deliverance:

"Tonight I go to be beheaded. It is what I have desired for several years. In this saha-world, when I have been born as a pheasant I have been seized by a hawk; when born as a mouse I have been devoured by a cat; the number of times I have lost my life to the enemies of my wife and children is beyond calculation, like the dust of the earth. Not once have I lost my life for the sake of the Lotus Sūtra. . . . This time, by offering my neck to the Lotus Sūtra I intend to transfer the merit obtained to my parents, and any surplus merit to my disciples and supporters". . . . Just as I was thinking, "This will be the spot", rowdy soldiers surrounded me, just as I had anticipated, and Saemon-no-jō

Also known as Taira no Yoritsuna or by his full name and title, Hei no Saemon-no-jō Yoritsuna Source

sobbed "The time has come!". I said, "What dull-witted gentlemen you are! You must laugh for joy at this! How can the promise be broken?"
Just as I spoke, a moon-like object shot out like a shining ball from the direction of Enoshima, making a brilliant path from the south-east to the north-west. Normally, towards the dawn of the 12th night people's faces are not discernible, but this was like a moonlight night, with every face visible. The man holding the sword was dazzled and fell down in a daze; the soldiers were terrified, galloping away a hundred yards or more, or else dismounting to show their respect, or cowering on their mounts [Shuju Ofurumai Gosho, Zenshū 1369-70; Gosho 913-14].

Shortly after this we are treated to an astonishingly naive account of a second "divine intervention" - written, apparently, to satisfy the belief that the "three heavenly luminaries" would come to Nichiren's aid. These were Candra, Lord of the moon-gods, Sūrya, Controller of the light-gods, and Venus. Sakuma Shō writes of these as the "three guardian deities of the Lotus Sūtra" (idem], but the expectations of their aid are found in a letter of very dubious authority:

Of the three heavenly luminaries, Candra appeared as a shining object to save me from execution at Tatsunokuchi; Venus came down four or five days ago and lighted on a plum tree to visit Nichiren; now only Sūrya tarries. I eagerly wait in confident expectation of his aid [Shijō Kingo-dono Goshōsoku, Zenshū 702-3, Kubota 161, Gosho 1114].

This does not even agree with the account in Shuju Ofurumai Gosho, where on the following night Nichiren is presented as censuring Candra for not having appeared yet to save him:

As it was the 13th of the 9th month, and a very clear moonlight night, we went outside into the courtyard and paid reverence to the moon. I read a little from the jiga-ge (about the eternity of Sakyamuni's buddhahood), then about the relative merits of the different sects, and about various texts in the Lotus Sūtra. Firstly I said that this Moon-deva now visible was no other than Divine Son Excellent Moon (Candra), who had been seated . . . before the throne of the Lotus Sūtra on the Vulture Peak, as recorded in the "Introductory" chapter of the Lotus Sūtra (TLS 31-32]. He was among those in the "Precious Stupa" [Treasure Tower] chapter who received the decree of the Buddha to "declare his vow" to "guard and keep, read and recite the sūtra [TLS 202]. He . . . vowed in the "Final Commission" chapter: "We will do all the World-Honoured One has commanded" [TLS 302]. . . . Now because these things have come to pass, this [Candra] should joyfully hasten to take the place of the devotee of the Lotus Sūtra, and give evidence of his intention to fulfil [sic] his vow. I find the lack of such evidence strange indeed. . . . How can he shine forth over the land with such clear and joyous mien? In the Great Collection of Sūtras it is taught: "The sun and moon will not show their light" [T397/13/2/363b].

Then just as I was ... bitterly reproaching Candra, there came down from heaven a great star like Venus (surely in answer to my prayers) and lighted on a plum tree in front [Shuju Ofurumai Gosho, Zenshū 1372, Goshō 915].

The plum tree was apparently unscathed [😄], but the soldiers were suitably terrified, and there was a great "roaring in the sky" [idem]. However, in a much more prosaic account of Nichiren's arrest and punishment there is no mention of these heavenly visitations. It is addressed to a leading disciple, Toki-dono [Toki Jonin], dated 15th of 9th month, Bun'ei 8 (1271), and its authenticity is undisputed.

As its aim is to encourage the beleaguered disciples, the absence of the "hikari-mono" story is remarkable.

(Note also the date is different- "13th", not "12th" for the Tatsunokuchi Persecution episode):

The very fact of being punished by the authorities shows that I have believed the Lotus Sūtra. The moon waxes and wanes; the tide ebbs and flows without fail. Likewise, as there has been punishment so there must also be merit. Why should I weep about it?

I was sentenced by the Bakufu on 12th of this month, at about 8.00a.m., and under the custody of Musashi-dono left Kamakura on 13th, about 2.00a.m., to be cast onto the island of Sado. But for the time being - four or five days - I have been left in the custody of Umatarō ... in the domains of Honma of Echi.
It is only natural for you to be sad, but I am not sad, having been prepared for this from the beginning. That I had not been beheaded up till now shows that I had not really been dedicated to the Lotus Sūtra. If I had, would I have been such a miserable person in this life?
Also it says "Repeatedly shall we be driven out" (TLS 219]. Because I am being punished repeatedly and expiating my grievous sins, I shall attain buddhahood, for this is a voluntary penance [Toki-dono Gohenji, Zenshū 700-01, Gosho 950-51].

There is no hint that Nichiren knew why he had escaped execution.

Which letter is to be believed? Authentic copies of Toki-dono Gohenji are held at Nakayama Shokyoden, whereas there are none of Shijo Kingo-dono Goshosoku. Further, in the latter the official sentence is implied to have been execution while "the [Regent] had ordered me secretly to Sado". This conflicts with Shimoyama Sho (authenticity undisputed) where the official sentence was exile, and the execution was to be secret (Tokoro 325].
More importantly, in Hō-on Shō (another major work whose authenticity is not disputed), Nichiren clearly admits that he did not know why he was not executed:

In Bun'ei 8, on 12th of 9th month, they were to have beheaded me at Tatsunokuchi, Sagami-no-kuni, but for some reason or other they postponed it that night and we reached a place called Echi. Again on the night of the 13th there was a commotion. I had been pardoned, but again for some reason or other we went as far as Sado. Four years passed under the daily threat of execution. Finally I was pardoned on 14th of 2nd month, Bun'ei 11 [1274], and on 26th day of 3rd month I entered Kamakura [Tokoro 289-90, Zenshu 1458, Gosho 322-23].

Judging by this, and by Toki-dono Gohenji, then, it was a subdued monk resigned to the workings of past karma, more aware of the indifference of Nature, and much less hopeful of worldly success, that set out for the bleak island of Sado. During his time there, and also during his ensuing retirement on Mt Minobu, Nichiren wrestled with the acute problem of desertion by the gods. Not only did he need to satisfy his own mind; he had to try to convince his disillusioned disciples as well, in order to rebuild his shattered following. It is his answers to their doubts, as well as to his own mind and to his enemies,

that provide strong confirmation of the position taken here - that the stories of miraculous intervention are false.

But before looking at the way he tried to overcome his doubts, between 1271 and 1281, it is necessary to trace the events leading up to the second exile, and the reasons why he had come to expect divine intervention.

• Sensei has pointed out our prayer to the Goho0nzon, infused with the Great Vow, bring benefit and protection without fail.

• There are 2 (at least) SGI “straw men” Whistleblowers invented so they can attack them. One is that the SGI “blames the victims” for their problems. The other is that the SGI teaching of “protection” means nothing tragic or injurious should ever happen to SGI members.
  
• The SGI, of course, teaches neither of those ideas. Advising someone to deepen their faith to break through an obstacle is not “blaming them for their problems”, and “protection” is not the same thing as “immunity”. Oh, they might find quotes in the publication that have the word “protection”; and yes, the SGI teaches that practitioners of the Lotus Sutra are protected by the positive forces within their lives and the universe. But True Reconciliation points out, correctly, that Whistleblowers worry about it a lot more than the SGI does (and no, there is no longer a specific prayer for protection in the SGI silent prayers).
  

• Protection takes many forms, and nowhere does the SGI say “practitioners are immune from difficulties”. Buddhism is reason, and SGI members live in the same universe as everyone else, subject to the same laws and vicissitudes of life as anyone.

“An attitude in faith that reveres and honors the Gohonzon dignifies and honors the treasure tower of our own lives. When we chant before the Gohonzon, all Buddhas and bodhisattvas throughout the universe will instantly lend their support and protection.” - Dickeda, from The Wisdom for Creating Happiness and Peace, part 1, revised edition, p. 79

II. Nichiren's Expectations and Interpretation of Divine Aid