*Discussion”
How do you think it would’ve turned out if we drafted Jalen Ramsey in 2016 instead of Ezekiel Elliot? Personally I was banging the table for Ramsey, we really needed help in the secondary at the time. Pretty much our whole defense honestly.
I know Zeke and Dak were “best buds” and Zeke had a great statistical year his rookie year, along with a couple seasons afterwards but never really had that burst or tenacity he had his rookie season. I also believe along with most people that our O-Line was so dominant at the time, that you could’ve picked just about any talented RB & he would have had major success. Not saying over 1,300-1,400 yards, but success.
I think the future HOF Jalen Ramsey would’ve brought that “toughness/swagger” to our defense, not just his talented skill set. I also think Jerry Jones would’ve payed Ramsey the money he wanted to stay also if he stayed healthy. It also seemed like Ramsey high profile personality would’ve been perfect with the Cowboys glamour and media presence.
All in all idk if we would’ve won multiple Super Bowls with Ramsey, or even one. But I think he would’ve gave us a much better shot at the Lombardi than Zeke did. Others thoughts?
I also have been saying for years that one of Jerry Jones biggest mistakes that hardly anyone brings up was passing on Randy Moss in the draft. He definitely would’ve helped revitalize Troy Aikman career, one of the best 1-2 punches in history with Michael Irvin and Randy Moss. And who knows, maybe Irvin wouldn’t have been running that route when he broke his route or perhaps that play wouldn’t even have been called. Just a big “what if” and speculation, but fun to think about.

I was recently going through my files on an old computer. and found a draft of a giant post I made after I did some very-amatuerish data science on the 2019 crop of QBs. I thought it was terrible at the time. But then it turned out I had successfully predicted Gardner Minshew, and I didn't even know it. So, for discussion, the contents of the original post.

2019 NFL Draft QB Analysis

First, I just want to say. I am no expert. I wasn't even especially rigorous. This is just fun and probably not a very good way to predict anything. However, I think I manage to get some interesting results. Including that this model really just fell in love with Gardner Minshew.
For those of you unfamiliar with linear regression, you might want to watch this Khan Academy video to get an idea of how I did this.
I wanted to build a model that could take a quarterbacks college stats and try to predict what kind of statistical output they would have in the pros. As an added bonus, once I projected them in the pros, I tried to figure out what pro quarterbacks had similar numbers to their projections.
The first thing I did was decide what statistics I wanted to use to make my model. I decided to not use any volume stats and only use efficiency stats. I did not want to favor good QBs that had been in the NFL a long time or bad ones that managed to stick around. And because this draft features Kyler Murray, you bet I wanted to try to throw in some rushing statistics too.
I decided to build a model using a QB college stats: * Games played in college * Completion % * TD% * INT% * Yards / Attempt * Yards / Game * Rushing Yards / Attempt * Rush Yards / Game * Rush Attempts / Game
To predict these stats in the NFL: * Completion % * TD% * INT% * Yards / Attempt * Yards / Game * Rushing Yards / Attempt * Rush Yards / Game * Rush Attempts / Game
Then I went to acquire both professional and college statistics on Quarterbacks. Sports reference custom leader boards for college football only went to 2000, so anyone who entered the NFL before then was not used to build the model. So far as active quarterbacks, it only excludes Tom Brady and Drew Brees who are such freaks they probably shouldn't be included anyway. I also did not want to include any quarterbacks who were rookies last year. For instance, I did not think Josh Rosen's numbers last really represent the kind of Pro quarterback he will eventually become.
Then I took all of the quarterbacks from this upcoming draft, and fed their career stats through the model I had created. This is a projection of what their pro stats might look like based upon what they were able to produce in college. I sorted by TD% because scoring points is how you win, and you play to win the game.

Using Career Stats

Stat Projections

Player	Cmp%	TD%	INT%	Yds/Att	Yds/Game	Rush Yds/Att	Rush Yds/Game	Rush Att/Game
Kyler Murray	58.76	4.55	3.28	7.1	186.54	5.53	23.53	4.34
Ryan Finley	61.69	3.86	3.05	6.96	201.58	3.56	7.12	1.94
Drew Lock	57.92	3.82	3.35	6.59	179.31	2.95	7.81	1.99
Tyree Jackson	58.08	3.81	2.91	6.52	178.49	3.8	11.29	2.55
Gardner Minshew	61.15	3.8	2.63	6.85	212.9	2.73	4.47	1.63
Dwayne Haskins	59.62	3.74	2.67	6.75	200.78	3.71	12.56	3.
Will Grier	58.03	3.67	3.48	6.55	182.33	3.19	8.78	2.37
Jake Browning	60.01	3.62	3.41	6.85	173.99	3.48	8.69	2.17
Daniel Jones	59.69	3.54	2.72	6.65	161.9	4.89	14.38	2.94
Jordan Ta'amu	59.64	3.52	3.12	6.52	175.78	4.39	12.7	2.91
Trace McSorley	58.15	3.51	2.94	6.54	151.26	4.65	16.68	3.27
Clayton Thorson	59.86	3.44	3.22	6.71	161.23	3.72	7.48	1.92
Brett Rypien	60.3	3.42	3.21	6.71	180.2	2.67	4.8	1.61
Jarrett Stidham	60.11	3.25	2.68	6.61	172.45	3.65	10.3	2.54
Kyle Shurmur	57.85	2.87	3.01	6.31	144.52	1.67	1.57	1.1

You'll notice that Kyler Murray shows up at the top with a 4.55% Touchdown percentage. That actually is not amazing and would have put him about around 20th in 2018. Just below Nick Mullens and above Dak Prescott. I think just kind of shows how many quarterbacks can put up great numbers in college and then totally flop in the NFL. I suspect any model that looks at the numbers is just going to learn that basically all quarterbacks suck.
Then after I had projected their NFL stats, I compared their projections to NFL quarterbacks who played after the year 1990. This does not have the same restrictions as the QBs used to build the model because I wasn't using their college stats in any way. Disclaimer, if you see someone and you think aren't they from the 80s? (Such as Jim McMahon who does appear here), you're looking at the post-1990 version of them.
For people who are nerds: To make these comparisons, I normalized everyone's stats and took the 2-norm to figure distances.

QB Comparisons

QB	Cmp 1	Cmp 2	Cmp 3	Cmp 4	Cmp 5
Kyler Murray	Randall Cunningham	Steve McNair	Doug Flutie	Donovan McNabb	David Garrard
Ryan Finley	Matt Hasselbeck	Jon Kitna	Troy Aikman*	Case Keenum	Trevor Siemian
Drew Lock	Boomer Esiason	Byron Leftwich	Mark Sanchez	Brandon Weeden	Kevin Kolb
Tyree Jackson	Matt Cassel	Josh McCown	Byron Leftwich	Jeff Hostetler	Mark Brunell
Gardner Minshew	Troy Aikman*	Kyle Orton	Joe Flacco	Trevor Siemian	Case Keenum
Dwayne Haskins	Josh McCown	Jason Campbell	Rich Gannon	John Elway*	Trevor Siemian
Will Grier	Mark Sanchez	Matt Cassel	Byron Leftwich	Brandon Weeden	Boomer Esiason
Jake Browning	Kevin Kolb	Matt Hasselbeck	Matt Cassel	Josh McCown	Brandon Weeden
Daniel Jones	Jim Harbaugh	Jason Campbell	Mark Brunell	Josh McCown	Jeff Hostetler
Jordan Ta'amu	Josh McCown	Jim Harbaugh	Colt McCoy	Matt Cassel	Jason Campbell
Trace McSorley	Jim Harbaugh	David Carr	Christian Ponder	Jeff Hostetler	Shaun King
Clayton Thorson	Kevin Kolb	Matt Cassel	Trent Edwards	Matt Hasselbeck	Brandon Weeden
Brett Rypien	Chad Henne	Austin Davis	Brad Johnson	Brandon Weeden	Matt Hasselbeck
Jarrett Stidham	Matt Cassel	Josh McCown	Colt McCoy	Byron Leftwich	Trent Edwards
Kyle Shurmur	Chris Simms	Matt Leinart	Bernie Kosar	Ken O'Brien	Steve Bono

As a bonus, I ran all of the draft Qbs through the model using only their 2018. This produced something that was maybe a bit optimistic. It absolutely loved Gardner Minshew. Many of you probably do not know Gardner Minshew because he is at the bottom of most draft boards. He's still above Jordan Ta'amu who still sucked with maybe the 2nd best WR corp in college football. However, Minshew had a monster senior season after a few years of being absolutely pedestrian. He would probably be a lot higher on draft boards, but if you look at his tape you'll notice his throwing mechanics are actually god awful and he has a wobbly wet noodle arm. That combined with he got the luxury of playing in an Air Raid offense his last year in college.

Using 2018 Season Stats

Stat Projections

Player	Cmp%	TD%	INT%	Yds/Att	Yds/Game	Rush Yds/Att	Rush Yds/Game	Rush Att/Game
Kyler Murray	57.76	4.53	2.97	6.85	193.1	5.26	25.16	4.57
Gardner Minshew	62.75	4.33	2.43	7.05	255.92	3.41	6.11	1.99
Drew Lock	59.46	3.99	2.54	6.63	216.2	3.46	9.65	2.52
Ryan Finley	60.91	3.8	3.04	6.8	209.69	2.85	4.12	1.68
Dwayne Haskins	59.11	3.8	2.81	6.59	212.04	3.35	10.	2.68
Tyree Jackson	56.03	3.72	3.05	6.25	177.12	3.04	9.01	2.39
Daniel Jones	58.27	3.52	2.53	6.4	173.24	4.39	13.26	2.99
Jordan Ta'amu	59.56	3.5	3.02	6.42	180.5	4.3	11.85	2.81
Jake Browning	60.34	3.47	3.08	6.65	177.61	3.95	8.78	2.38
Trace McSorley	56.34	3.23	2.03	6.08	136.81	4.83	19.35	3.68
Brett Rypien	59.51	3.21	2.65	6.41	186.28	3.41	8.17	2.43
Will Grier	56.89	3.09	3.33	6.15	172.49	2.01	4.28	1.88
Clayton Thorson	58.92	2.93	3.2	6.34	153.59	2.9	2.48	1.48
Kyle Shurmur	58.61	2.9	2.33	6.24	173.78	1.78	2.69	1.51
Jarrett Stidham	58.85	2.89	2.17	6.17	172.84	2.95	6.85	2.19

QB Comparisons

QB	Cmp 1	Cmp 2	Cmp 3	Cmp 4	Cmp 5
Kyler Murray	Randall Cunningham	Steve McNair	Doug Flutie	Donovan McNabb	David Garrard
Gardner Minshew	Matthew Stafford	Joe Montana*	Derek Carr	Warren Moon*	Brett Favre*
Drew Lock	Trevor Siemian	Case Keenum	Nick Foles	Joe Montana*	Jon Kitna
Ryan Finley	Troy Aikman*	Kyle Orton	Trevor Siemian	Jon Kitna	Matt Hasselbeck
Dwayne Haskins	Trevor Siemian	Jon Kitna	Byron Leftwich	Sam Darnold	Case Keenum
Tyree Jackson	Byron Leftwich	Tony Banks	Blaine Gabbert	Matt Cassel	Mark Sanchez
Daniel Jones	Jim Harbaugh	Jason Campbell	Josh McCown	Mark Brunell	Matt Cassel
Jordan Ta'amu	Josh McCown	Matt Cassel	Jason Campbell	Colt McCoy	David Carr
Jake Browning	Josh McCown	Matt Cassel	Trent Edwards	Tim Couch	Kevin Kolb
Trace McSorley	Johnny Manziel	Shaun King	Jim Harbaugh	Kordell Stewart	David Carr
Brett Rypien	Byron Leftwich	Brandon Weeden	Chad Henne	Matt Cassel	Brock Osweiler
Will Grier	Joey Harrington	Kerry Collins	Patrick Ramsey	Chad Henne	A.J. Feeley
Clayton Thorson	Brock Osweiler	Bernie Kosar	Ken O'Brien	Jim McMahon	Chad Henne
Kyle Shurmur	Neil O'Donnell	Bernie Kosar	Ken O'Brien	Brock Osweiler	Chad Henne
Jarrett Stidham	Brock Osweiler	Byron Leftwich	Chad Henne	Brandon Weeden	Ken O'Brien

Overall, I would say you should not make your draft grades based upon stats. You would probably draft Gardner Minshew hoping to get Matthew Stafford but then realize in camp that Minshew has the arm of 2015 playoffs Peyton Manning but actually still worse. And for what it's worth, I don't like Daniel Jones so my code must have somehow picked that up, because it kind of hates Daniel Jones too.

Anytime a receiver is getting closer to entering the Hall of Fame, you always hear the argument, "He just had great QBs, he would've been average with an average QB" or "His numbers weren't great but he had bad QBs." These argument always drive me nuts because it's really hard to prove them one way or the other. I'm gonna try to do that here. I created a score based on Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value where for every Hall of Fame WR (since the merger) I took the receiver's AV per game and the AV per game for all of their QBs for the years they started with that receiver on the team, then divided the two numbers. I gathered a few more metrics and put them into some tiers here: Despite All Odds, Great ReceiveGreat QB, On Par, and Lucked Out
To be clear I think most of these dudes deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, I'm just trying to see how much help these guys had from their teams. I'm also going to add some dudes in here who haven't made it yet but probably deserve to.
QB Stability is the % of the receivers' total games that were started by the top 3 QBs in that receiver's career. Bigger number is more stable, smaller number is less stable.
HoF QB % is the % of games started in the receiver's career by a HoF QB.

Despite All Odds

These are players who didn't always have a great QB to play with but still performed dominantly no matter who was throwing the ball. In fact their play likely elevated the performance of their QBs.
​

Receiver	Years	R AV/G	QB Stability	HoF QB%	QB AV/G	Score
Terrell Owens	1996-10	0.763	71%	21%	0.900	85
Paul Warfield	1964-77	0.879	73%	37%	1.102	80
Calvin Johnson	2007-15	0.696	84%	0%*	0.889	78
Steve Largent	1976-89	0.700	92%	0%	0.905	77
Randy Moss	1998-12	0.743	60%	19%	1.014	73
Isaac Bruce	1994-09	0.610	71%	22%	0.852	72
James Lofton	1978-93	0.609	72%	25%	0.854	71
Tim Brown	1988-04	0.573	72%	0%	0.816	70
Candidates
Sterling Sharpe	1988-94	0.705	71%	26%	0.643	110
Steve Smith	2001-16	0.635	74%	0%	0.758	84
Torry Holt	1999-09	0.711	88%	29%	0.861	83
Henry Ellard	1983-98	0.588	67%	0%	0.763	77
Jimmy Smith	1992-05	0.690	93%	0%	0.895	77
Andre Johnson	2003-16	0.642	79%	0%	0.876	73
Rod Smith	1995-06	0.705	66%	17%	0.973	72
Larry Fitzgerald	2004-20	0.525	62%	22%	0.741	71

​
https://preview.redd.it/qhoa1cibyt191.jpg?width=1400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=23f45f11c9717f595f2b9afd75c03b735ff2e60d
https://preview.redd.it/13yju6yayt191.jpg?width=3000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e19de9f48100ddbe65bc0be3a465f6bc7f1a702b
https://preview.redd.it/l5qa26dayt191.jpg?width=343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c27f6902b03c82d238353239864d40f61fe52c0
https://preview.redd.it/dcu6uwn9yt191.jpg?width=1598&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bebc54b3069f207ba1b97e46f6a813bbc8ca71eb
https://preview.redd.it/qbvyn619yt191.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2dfc8ce8d6fc2d66ad32727d76e6e04aab6ccd0b
https://preview.redd.it/3sxgx168yt191.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca0e0b3169f7186850d377d28d3c55dbc71979d5
HoFers:

1. Terrell Owens
   1. Top 3 QBs: Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, Steve Young
   2. Other QBs: Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards, Drew Bledsoe, Brad Johnson, Brooks Bollinger, Donovan McNabb, Jeff Blake, Mike McMahon, Elvis Grbac, Jim Druckenmiller, Ty Detmer, Jeff Brohm, Rick Mirer, Tim Rattay
2. Paul Warfield
   1. Frank Ryan, Bob Griese, Bill Nelsen
   2. Brian Sipe, Earl Morrall, Mike Phipps, Dave Mays, Terry Luck, George Mira, Jim Ninowski, Gary Lane
3. Calvin Johnson
   1. Matthew Stafford, Jon Kitna, Daunte Culpepper
   2. Dan Orlovsky, Shaun Hill, Drew Stanton
4. Steve Largen
   1. Jim Zorn, Dave Krieg, Kelly Stouffer
   2. Steve Myer, Gale Gilbert, Bruce Mathison, Jeff Kemp
5. Randy Moss
   1. Daunte Culpepper, Tom Brady, Randall Cunningham
   2. Vince Young, Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Brett Favre, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Marques Tuiasosopo, Andrew Walter, Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Spergon Wynn, Gus Frerotte
6. Isaac Bruce
   1. Marc Bulger, Kurt Warner, Chris Miller
   2. Mark Rypien, Tony Banks, Jamie Martin, Steve Bono, Trent Green, Shaun Hill, J.T. O'Sullivan, Alex Smith, Chris Chandler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gus Frerotte
7. James Lofton
   1. Lynn Dickey, Jim Kelly, David Whitehurst
   2. Randy Wright, Jay Schroeder, Bubby Brister, Randall Cunningham, Ken O'Brien, Frank Reich, Marc Wilson, Rusty Hilger, Vince Evans, Steve Buerlein, Jim Zorn
8. Tim Brown
   1. Rich Gannon, Jay Schroeder, Jeff Hostetler
   2. Brian Greise, Brad Johnson, Chris Simms, Steve Beurlein, Todd Marinovich, Vince Evans, Billy Joe Hobert, Jeff George, Donald Hollas, Wade Wilson, Rick Mirer

Candidates:

1. Sterling Sharpe
   1. Don Majkowski, Brett Favre, Randy Wright
   2. Mike Tomczak, Anthony Dilweg, Blair Kiel
2. Steve Smith
   1. Jake Delhomme, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco
   2. Ryan Mallett, Matt Schaub, Chris Weinke, Matt Lytle, Rodney Peete, Randy Fasani, Vinny Testaverde, David Carr, Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen, Brian St. Pierre
3. Torry Holt
   1. Marc Bulger, Kurt Warner, David Garrard
   2. Trent Green, Jamie Martin, Scott Covington, Chris Chandler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gus Frerotte, Brock Berlin
4. Henry Ellard
   1. Jim Everett, Gus Frerotte, Vince Ferregamo
   2. Heath Schuler, T.J. Rubley, John Fries, Jeff Hostetler, Jeff Kemp, Dieter Brock, Steve Dils, Steve Bartowski, Drew Bledsoe
5. Jimmy Smith
   1. Mark Brunell, Byron Leftwich, David Garrard
   2. Steve Beuerlein, Steve Matthews, Rob Johnson, Jonathan Quinn, Jamie Martin, Jay Fielder
6. Andre Johnson
   1. David Carr, Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick
   2. Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Josh Freeman, Tony Banks, Dave Ragone, Sage Rosenfels, T.J. Yates, Matt Leinart, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallett
7. Rod Smith
   1. Jake Plummer, Brian Griese, John Elway
   2. Bill Musgrave, Bubby Brister, Chris Miller, Gus Frerotte, Steve Bueurlein, Danny Kanell, Jarious Jackson, Jay Cutler
8. Larry Fitzgerald
   1. Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner, Kyler Murray
   2. Josh McCown, John Skelton, Matt Leinart, Kevin Kolb, Derek Anderson, Drew Stanton, Blaine Gabbert, Shaun King, John Navarre, Max Hall, Josh Rosen, Sam Bradford

Great ReceiveGreat QB

These are the hardest guys to judge because they were awesome most of their careers, but they also had phenomenal QB play for most that time. I stuck them in their own category because I don't really think they belong either category above or below this, my score doesn't really capture their greatness.
​

Receiver	Years	R AV/G	QB Stability	HoF QB%	QB AV/G	Score
Michael Irvin	1988-99	0.792	92%	97%	0.906	88
Charley Taylor	1964-77	0.752	98%	65%	0.915	82
Marvin Harrison	1996-08	0.842	99%	93%	1.111	76
Jerry Rice	1985-04	0.828	78%	66%	1.261	66
Candidates
Julio Jones	2011-21	0.848	100%	0%*	1.159	73
Antonio Brown	2010-21	0.767	92%	87%*	1.075	71

​
https://preview.redd.it/usci6mz6yt191.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ac73ad66396c2e75ed97e05fa64be359e0c2f79
https://preview.redd.it/zuwsjd36yt191.jpg?width=1400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16521473fa9a5e8756fdd3c4348895a6b8f564eb
https://preview.redd.it/fp3oqvg5yt191.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a7471bb3667a9b5c0faac8e10e0040484ce4bb84
HoFers

1. Michael Irvin
   1. Troy Aikman, Steve Pelluer, Jason Garrett
   2. Kevin Sweeney, Steve Walsh, Babe Laufenberg, Steve Beuerlein, Bernie Kosar, Rodney Peete, Wade Wilson
2. Charley Taylor
   1. Sonny Jurgensen, Billy Kilmer, Jim Ninowski
   2. Dick Shiner, Randy Johnson
3. Marvin Harrison
   1. Peyton Manning, Jim Harbaugh, Paul Justin
   2. Kerwin Bell, Kelly Holcomb
4. Jerry Rice
   1. Steve Young, Joe Montana, Rich Gannon
   2. Jeff Garcia, Steve Stenstrom, Ty Detmer, Jim Druckenmiller, Elvis Grbac, Steve Bono, Bob Gagliano, Mike Moroski, Jeff Kemp, Matt Cavanaugh, Kerry Collins, Marques Tuiasosopo, Rick Mirer, Trent Dilfer, Matt Hasselbeck

Candidates

1. Julio Jones
   1. Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Schaub
2. Antonio Brown
   1. Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Charlie Batch
   2. Landry Jones, Dennis Dixon, Byron Leftwich, Michael Vick

On Par

These are the guys I consider to have very good QB play, but their play wasn't as consistently phenomenal as the guys in the tiers above.
​

Receiver	Years	R AV/G	QB Stability	HoF QB%	QB AV/G	Score
Art Monk	1980-95	0.558	78%	0%	0.857	65
Andre Reed	1985-00	0.568	92%	68%	0.885	64
Cliff Branch	1972-85	0.590	82%	52%	0.951	62
Harold Carmichael	1971-84	0.555	87%	0%	0.912	61
Fred Biletnikoff	1965-78	0.621	93%	43%	1.037	60
John Stallworth	1974-87	0.624	79%	69%	1.073	58
Cris Carter	1987-02	0.577	63%	17%	1.013	57
Lynn Swann	1974-82	0.629	93%	97%	1.103	57
Candidates
Reggie Wayne	2001-14	0.725	96%	76%	1.052	69
Anquan Boldin	2003-16	0.584	68%	28%*	0.842	69
Brandon Marshall	2006-18	0.575	68%	3%*	0.855	67
Harold Jackson	1968-83	0.596	47%	2%	0.899	66
Stanley Morgan	1977-90	0.566	86%	0%	0.857	66
Hines Ward	1998-11	0.548	93%	52%*	0.829	66
Irving Fryar	1984-00	0.439	44%	14%	0.725	61

​
https://preview.redd.it/xp3tfyd3yt191.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b6f70700b79d28fa13f4215edddff989a9735cbb
https://preview.redd.it/el5qq4e2yt191.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=54c09d953c72cf363f6f5814afd79516d413f901
https://preview.redd.it/49gi5r71yt191.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=438a0a4879fbb59ab45a369855c0558a1da2d60f
https://preview.redd.it/dh08x3m0yt191.jpg?width=1400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5f167e037d6f213b03ab2c92aaf097ba85b77fc0
https://preview.redd.it/fi4fukwzxt191.jpg?width=929&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b99e596f1269cf7789135dd571bb46ced7b351c
HoFers:

1. Art Monk
   1. Joe Theismann, Mark Rypien, Jay Schroeder
   2. Doug Williams, Randall Cunningham, Rodney Peete, Boomer Esiason, Jack Trudeau, Mike Kruczek, Ed Rubbert, Stan Humphries, Jeff Rutledge, Rich Gannon, Cary Conklin
2. Andre Reed
   1. Jim Kelly, Doug Flutie, Rob Johnson
   2. Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Vince Ferragamo, Bruce Mathison, Frank Reich, Willie Totten, Gale Gilbert, Alex Van Pelt, Todd Collins
3. Cliff Branch
   1. Ken Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Marc Wilson
   2. Mike Rae, Larry Lawrence, Dan Pastorini, Daryle Lamonica, George Blanda
4. Harold Carmichael
   1. Ron Jaworski, Roman Gabriel, Mike Boryla
   2. Pete Liske, Rick Arrington, John Reaves, Joe Pisarcik
5. Fred Biletnikoff
   1. Daryle Lamonica, Ken Stabler, Tom Flores
   2. Dick Wood, Cotton Davidson, George Blanda, Larry Lawrence, Mike Rae
6. John Stallworth
   1. Terry Bradshaw, Mark Malone, Cliff Stoudt
   2. David Woodley, Mike Kruczek, Joe Gilliam, Terry Hanratty, Scott Campbell, Bubby Brister, Steve Bono
7. Cris Carter
   1. Randall Cunningham, Brad Johnson, Warren Moon
   2. Ray Lucas, Jay Fielder, Daunte Culpepper, Spergeon Wynn, Todd Bouman, Rich Gannon, Wade Wilson, Sean Salisbury, Jeff George, Scott Tinsley
8. Lynn Swann
   1. Terry Bradshaw, Joe Gilliam, Mike Kruczek
   2. Terry Hanratty, Cliff Stoudt, Mark Malone

Candidates:

1. Reggie Wayne
   1. Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Curtis Painter
   2. Kerry Collins, Dan Orlovsky
2. Anquan Boldin
   1. Kurt Warner, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick
   2. Josh McCown, Matthew Stafford, Blaine Gabbert, Jeff Blake, Shaun King, John Navarre, Matt Leinart
3. Brandon Marshall
   1. Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Henne
   2. Kyle Orton, Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Jason Campbell, Josh McCown, Jimmy Clausen, Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington, Chris Simms, Eli Manning, Jake Plummer, Russell Wilson
4. Harold Jackson
   1. Steve Grogan, James Harris, John Hadl
   2. Pat Haden, Pete Liske, Dave Krieg, Jim Zorn, Matt Cavanaugh, Tom Owen, Ron Jaworski, Joe Namath, John Reaves, Norm Snead, Roman Gabriel, Rick Arrington, George Mira
5. Stanley Morgan
   1. Steve Grogan, Tony Eason, Matt Cavanaugh
   2. Doug Flutie, Tom Owen, Tom Ramsey, Bob Bleier, Jeff George, Jack Trudeau
6. Hines Ward
   1. Ben Roethlisberger, Kordell Stewart, Tommy Maddox
   2. Charlie Batch, Mike Tomczak, Kent Graham, Dennis Dixon
7. Irving Fryar
   1. Tony Eason, Dan Marino, Steve Grogan
   2. Jeff Carlson, Scott Zolak, Hugh Millen, Tom Hodson, Marc Wilson, Tom Ramsey, Doug Flutie, Bob Bleier, Jeff George, Brad Johnson, Koy Detmer, Bobby Hoying, Rodney Peete, Ty Detmer, Bernie Kosar, Steve DeBerg, Scott Mitchell

Lucked Out

I think these guys belong in the Hall of Fame, but if you gave these guys the same QBs as someone like Steve Largent, they may not have made it.
​

Receiver	Years	R AV/G	QB Stability	HoF QB%	QB AV/G	Score
Drew Pearson	1973-83	0.628	99%	64%	1.167	54
Charlie Joiner	1969-86	0.561	78%	56%	1.054	53

​
https://preview.redd.it/axzbggwuxt191.jpg?width=305&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=039843c5b1f2c5cc4c753cddd727dfbd116f6d2d
HoFers:

1. Drew Pearson
   1. Roger Staubach, Danny White, Clint Longley
   2. Glenn Carano
2. Charlie Joiner
   1. Dan Fouts, Ken Anderson, Charley Johnson
   2. Dan Pastorini, Clint Longley, James Harris, Pete Beathard, Cliff Olander, Ed Luther, Mark Herrmann, Tom Flick, Wayne Clark, John Reaves, Don Trull, Bob Davis, Jerry Rhome, Lynn Dickey

TLDR: No.
One of the common reasons to be against adding more expansion teams is the idea that the world physically does not have enough NFL caliber players. I decided to take a look at the difference in QB top, middle, and bottom tier quarterbacks before and after previous expansions. I looked at 1994 (28 teams), 1995 (30 teams), 2001 (31 teams), and 2002 (32 teams).
In this thought experiment, I took the compared the middle 3 QBs in the NFL to the top and bottom 3 respectively. The stats that I looked at were Yards, TDs, and INT.
1994
Top 3 Averages: 4424 yards, 24.333 TD, 21 INT
Middle 3 Averages: 2792 yards, 15.333 TD, 11.666 INT
Bottom 3 Averages: 1468.666 yards, 7.666 TD, 8 INT
1994 Summary: The top 3 quarterbacks (Bledsoe, Marino, and Moon) threw for 58.40% more yards, 58.70% more TD, and 80% more INT than the middle of the pack quarterbacks. In contrast, the middle QBs (Erickson, Esiason, and Aikman) threw for nearly twice as many yards, twice as many TD, and 45.83% more INT than the bottom quarterbacks (Schroeder, Mitchell, and Harbaugh).
1995
Top 3 Averages: 4326.333 yards, 34.333 TD, and 19.5 INT
Middle 3 Averages: 3073.666 yards, 20 TD, 10 INT
Bottom 3 Averages: 2147 yards, 14.333 TD, 10.333 INT
1995 Summary: The top 3 quarterbacks (Favre, Mitchell, and Moon) had 40.75% more yards, 71.67% TD, and 95% more INT than the middle QBs (Kelly, Bono, and O'Donnell). Those same middle QBs threw for 43.16% more yards, 39.53% more TD, fewer INT than the bottom QBs (Esiason, Brunell, and Hostetler).
First expansion results: The bottom quarterbacks were closer to the average QBs in 1995 than 1994. Showing that at the time, the gap between the low end and middle tier QBs was not enormous, and the gap between the middle and top tier QBs became closer between the two seasons. Showing that by looking at QBs alone, expansion was good for parity in the NFL. One interesting note, Scott Mitchell (Lions) had a massive turnaround between 1994 and 1995 going from the bottom of the league to the top of the league between seasons.
2001
Top 3 Averages: 4294 yards, 32 TD, 20 INT
Middle 3 Averages: 3246.333 yards, 19 TD, and 17.666 INT
Bottom 3 Averages: 2246 yards, 11.666 TD, and 10.333 INT
2001 Summary: The difference between the top QBs (Warner, Manning, and Favre) and the middle tier QBs (Fielder, McNabb, and Kitna) continued to shrink at this time. The top QBs threw for 32.29% more yards, 68.42% more TD, and 13.21% more INT than the mid-tier QBs. The difference between the middle tier and bottom tier (Banks, Miller, and Van Pelt) was similar to 1995. The middle 3 QBs threw for 43.26% more yards, 62.87% more TD, and 70.97% more INT than the bottom tier QBs
2002
Top 3 Averages: 4416 yards, 25.666 TD, and 14.666 INT
Middle 3 Averages: 3081.333 yards, 19.666 TD, 7.333 INT
Bottom 3 Averages: 1640 yards, 10 TD, 7.333 INT
2002 Summary: The difference between the best (Gannon, Bledsoe, and Manning) and middle (Pennington, Hasselbeck, and Johnson) QBs widened compared to the previous year, with the top QBs throwing 43.31% more yards, 30.51% more TD, and twice as many INT. In contrast, the middle QBs absolutely demolished the lowest 3 quarterbacks (Bulger, Hutchinson, Ramsey) in all passing categories, except for INT. The middle QBs threw for 87.89% more yards, 96.67% more TD, and the same amount of INT.
Second Expansion Results: The quality of lower tier QB play dropped significantly when compared to the year before. It looks like that there were not enough starting caliber QBs at the time to expand to 32 teams.
What does this mean for future expansion?
Big shocker, if the pattern follows the same trend as the 2002 expansion, QB play at the bottom of the league is going to be absolutely horrific. Maybe the world only has enough NFL players to support ~30 competent teams based on the relative parity that and a 30 team league enjoyed for 6 years

Do you remember the last time Bill Simmons wrote a wild-card playoff column? It was right after the 2017 season. He went 0-4 against the spread (2-2 straight up, although I'm told by the man himself that straight up doesn't mean anything), and we all had a grand old time watching a video called "Ram It" that appears to have been removed from YouTube.
In case you need a reminder of how long ago the 2018 playoffs were, here were the quarterbacks playing that week: Matt Ryan (run it back again with Matt in 2022, Atlanta!), Drew Brees (not quite a cadaver back then), Alex Smith (backed up by rookie Mahomes, offering hope to Trey Lances everywhere), Jared Goff (McVay's debut season), Marcus Mariota (Tannehill was with Adam Gase in Miami), Tyrod Taylor (who later got benched for Josh Allen -- as it turned out, not because of racism), Blake Bortles (who has had 5 stints, 0 starts, and innumerable Pardon My Take appearances in the past 3 seasons), and Cam Newton (who half of the Panthers fan base still thinks is the guy to lead them to the Super Bowl). By the way, Nick Foles and Case Keenum were poised to match up in the NFC Championship (or, as Bill would say, "Round 3") a couple weeks later. Suffice to say that times have changed.
So, I wanted to offer this mailbag to you as a sort of crude imitation of the able-fingered man we once knew (I hope, for the Sports Gal's sake, that he's still able to satisfy her in other ways). These are real tweets from actual tweeters, but the Bill impression is preposterously fake. Despite that, let's have some fun, make some picks, and argue in the comments section about what we expect this weekend.
I think we had spent so much time talking up the tie (and in that moment hearing about the tie) that by then we, as a football watching society, had convinced ourselves they were Definitely Doing The Tie.
--Mina, New York
THE CHARGERS TOOK THE TIMEOUT AND THAT BROKE THE TRUST BETWEEN THE TWO IT’S CLASSIC PRISONER’S DILEMMA
--Matt, Denver
Let's talk about the almost-tie. I think the end of that game has the potential to become this generation's JFK assassination. It's an event that offers (1) an obvious explanation (Oswald acted alone :: Vegas was always going to kick the field goal); (2) an alternative explanation that aligns more closely with our worldview (the seedy U.S. government had a hand in taking out the president :: the Doofus Nerd Boy Brandon Staley outfoxed himself by calling a timeout when Vegas was going to run out the clock and accept the tie); (3) one "standard" piece of video evidence that neither clearly confirms nor denies either explanation (the Zapruder film :: the NBC broadcast); and (4) enough random details (listed below) that several theories could possibly be true, including the cool alternative ones.
DETAIL #1: The Raiders, unlike the Chargers, had incentive to win instead of tie. LAC was going to be the 6 seed with a win or a tie. Vegas would have been the 7-seed with a tie, which would have sent them to Kansas City, as opposed the trip to Cincinnati they earned with the win. After a decade under Andy Reid's boot, is it any wonder that the Raiders pushed forward at the end when a tie was just a couple kneels away?
DETAIL #2: Both Derek Carr and Rich Bisaccia said after the game that Staley's timeout "changed their strategy." It's not clear what this means, but we know it doesn't mean they were just taking a knee to end the game pre-timeout, because...
DETAIL #3: The Raiders were in Shotgun formation for the play on which Staley called timeout, with just :38 left on the clock. This is pretty damning for the "they were going to kneel it out" theory, because this could have been the final play of the game if both teams had allowed it to be.
DETAIL #4: Vegas kicker Daniel Carlson has been incredibly reliable from long-distance this season, including 6/7 from 50+ yards. This matters because the Raiders had reason to trust that a 55-yarder was not a serious risk of disaster (block returned for TD; kick-six) if they had just kicked it from where they were on the field before Staley's timeout.
DETAIL #5: After Jacobs picked up the first down on his post-timeout run, Vegas still had a timeout and about 30 seconds to work with if they wanted to get closer for Carlson. In a normal situation, a team would almost always try to run the ball a couple more times and pick up 5-10 more yards before calling that timeout with :02 remaining to put the game away. Why didn't the Raiders do that? Is it possible that they left Carlson with a longer field goal than necessary because they weren't so worried about him missing the kick?
Really, Detail #2 is the sticking-point here, and to a lesser extent Detail #5. Carr and the Pit Boss wouldn't just lie about that, right? There must have been a more tie-friendly strategy that the Raiders abandoned, and the strategy they ultimately employed wasn't as tie-phobic as it could have been. But what could that original strategy have been other than simply kneeling it out, which they clearly were not going to do even before Staley's timeout?
My theory: the Raiders were content to run a short play to the middle of the field (maybe have Jacobs run to the middle of the field and fall down, which teams often do in endgame situations like this). Then, they could run the clock down to :02, call timeout, and try the field goal from the ~38 yard line (on 4th & 3 or so), which would have been about a 55-yarder. Carlson wasn't automatic from that range, but he has been good enough that he could be instructed to kick it at a regular arc (avoiding the heightened risk of a block) and it would still have a 99% chance of at least reaching the crossbar (avoiding the heightened risk of a kick-six). This strategy would have meant that the Raiders were trying to win, but they weren't trying as hard as they could be if they were still looking to pick up yardage with the remaining 38 seconds in the game.
So, how did the strategy change? When Staley called timeout, the Raiders had 3rd & 4, and LA had one more timeout remaining. Had Vegas played it conservatively, Staley could have called his final timeout, which would have brought up 4th down, which would have forced Carlson to attempt a field goal (or perhaps convince Bisaccia to punt) with about 35 seconds left. Either way, the wonky timeout (36 seconds into the play clock??) suggested that Staley wanted to at least create a possibility that Herbert could get the ball one more time and try to make some magic happen. The Raiders obviously couldn't tolerate that, so they had to pick up the first down and guarantee that they would finish the game with the ball. Ergo, they handed it to Jacobs actually trying to pick up first-down yardage, which he did, and the rest is history.
What happened with Joe Judge? I thought he wasn’t getting fired.
--Joe, Boston
Good question, Joe. Was this the first Black Tuesday firing in NFL history?
For the uninitiated, Joe Judge had been rumored to be keeping his job for weeks, because the Mara family is just Too Nice to bail on a coach after two years, and then several reporters confirmed on Black Monday that he was safe even as several guys with superior resumes were shown the door. The internet threw a fit, as the internet is wont to do. And then, on Tuesday, he got the axe.
I think the only way to read this is as proof that cyberbullying works. I don't know what else could have changed in 24 hours; it certainly wasn't Giants ownership, which hasn't changed hands since 1925. Some poor intern in the Giants' social media room had had enough of the abuse, and ran it up the flagpole, and eventually the Maras got wind that their fan base was unhappy. It isn't out of the question that this was the first time they were aware that their fans' angst since the Eli-for-Geno swap, which, coincidentally, was what cost Ben McAdoo his job.
Speaking of which, this is a chance to pitch my latest half-baked idea: make a team's most recently-retired hall-of-fame player the "prime minister" of the franchise. I don't care if these out-of-touch old guys own these teams and derive revenue from them, but it messes with the competitive balance of the league when owners are too ignorant of reality to properly manage a thing, like the Giants, that millions of people care about. You're telling me that the Giants wouldn't be better off if Michael Strahan had an executive role in that brain-trust? The Lions wouldn't be on a better path if Calvin Johnson was calling some shots? Washington fans wouldn't be more excited about a team run by Russ Grimm?
Plus, this idea would incentivize certain guys to go into the hall of fame with a less successful franchise. When Myles Garrett gets disgruntled and demands a trade from Cleveland in 2 years, then wins multiple DPOYs with the Ravens, you know what would make him want to enter Canton as a Brown? The chance to be prime minister for an NFL franchise -- because Lamar Jackson is about to take the reins in Baltimore, and Leroy Kelly can only hold on for so much longer in Cleveland.
Anyway, yeah, the Maras are approaching year 100 of running the Giants, Judge probably had to go, and Simmons is still furious that this goofy franchise robbed his team of two rings.
Screw your survivor pools, your parlay went down in flames, and moneyline was a joke. @Jaguars took your money in week 18. @TheCousinSal @BillSimmons That's what you get for betting on Carson Wentz. Your tears make me stronger.
--ModernaDerpWolfNFT, Florida
Words hurt, ModernaDerpWolfNFT. This feels like the type of tweet that Ben Simmons (Bill's son, not the Australian check-collector) will be writing when he starts tweeting. This specific guy 100% subscribes to this sub (let me know in the comments if you're reading this!). But this man yelling at a cloud does have a point: Bill broke a playoff gambling rule or two when he backed Carson Wentz in what was essentially a playoff game for the Colts. Because it's been four years since his last gambling manifesto, I thought it best to re-hash a few of these old rules for Bill and anyone else who may be betting irresponsibly this weekend:
Rule No. 1: When in doubt, gravitate toward one pick that (a) would screw over the most gamblers and experts, and (b) would definitely go against the single worst gambler you know.
I'm calling this the "let's make some money while simultaneously laughing at Warren Sharp" rule. I think there is one team that the sharps have been particularly down on this season that can hang around enough to ruin some teases and cost a lot of annoying people a lot of money. More on this later.
Rule No. 2: Beware of the “Looked a Little Too Good the Previous Round” team.
Or, for Wild Card Weekend, the team that wowed you the last time you saw them at full strength. Perhaps a team that won convincingly last Saturday night, or a team that won a big game as a home dog in week 17 and rested a bunch of guys in week 18.
Rule No. 3: Don’t bet against God, puppies, gambling theories from Pakistan, or teams that Cris Collinsworth describes as "one of the greatest stories in NFL history."
I made a slight revision to this historic manifesto rule. You may be sensing where I'm going with the Shakey's game.
Rule No. 4: Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win.
A manifesto staple, and a great rule of thumb, but gets increasingly hard to follow in practice as spreads get bigger.
Rule No. 5: Beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight in water every day, get 10 hours of sleep, master every conceivable pliability exercise, have lots of sex with a supermodel wife, don’t drink alcohol, don’t eat inflammatory foods, don’t smoke or do drugs, improbably become faster in their late 30s and basically behave like an alien.
This rule still applies exactly as Bill wrote it 4 years ago.
Rule No. 6: Beware of the “Everybody Believes In Us” team.
It's worth wondering who the "Everybody Believes In Us" team is this year. It's not Tennessee, who has the third-best odds of winning their own conference despite the fact that they're the 1-seed and the only team with a bye. I don't think it's Green Bay, either, because people are dubious of Rodgers after he's been striking out in the NFC title game consistently for a decade. Tampa has a ton of injuries. People still have questions about Buffalo, who lost to Jacksonville. And anyone who believes in the Rams after these past couple weeks should be incarcerated. The Cowboys are only getting a half-point on a neutral field against a deeply flawed 49ers team. By process of elimination, that leaves only one team that has been considered among the NFL's elite all year long and still has practically everyone believing in them. I'll let you figure out who.
Rule No. 7: Don’t ever talk yourself into a terrible QB, ever, for any reason.
There is some debate as to what "terrible" means. Was Drew Brees, who cruised to a wild-card win over Chicago, "terrible"? What about Nick Foles going into the 2017 playoffs, whom Bill preemptively declared a disaster before Foles played one of the best Super Bowls of all time to take another ring away from Brady? (Yes, that's me laughing because I got to poke at all 3 of Belichick's Super Bowl losses before I made a single pick.) I'm not sure that any QB in these playoffs is "terrible." Big Ben is clearly the closest, but I'm not sure if he's truly awful or just a shell of his former, hall-of-fame caliber self.
Rule No. 8: Beware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend’s victory like it had just won the Super Bowl.
Oh, look, there's Joe Burrow basking in the light of a week 17 win.
Rule No. 9: Don’t try to be a hero, just try to win money.
I think a lot of you screwed this up last season with Bears/Saints. You took a road team with an inferior quarterback, an inferior coach, and a mediocre overall roster because 9.5 points was too many to give Drew Brees at that point in his career. Don't get cute with this. There's one specific game that will tempt you to break Rule No. 9, which is really the Golden Rule of the gambling manifesto. I'll tell you which one in a second, but before I do, I want to say it again and again: resist. Resist. Resist.
Rule No. 10: There’s plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach.
I know you want to hammer whoever's playing Jimmy G. I know you can't imagine the Raiders making it to the final four. I'm there with you. We'll ride together next weekend. But, for now, stick to the script.
(Home teams in caps.)
Las Vegas (+4.5) over CINCINNATI.
It's been...11,331 days since the #Bengals won a playoff game.
--Cincinnati Playoff Curse Clock, Cincinnati
Somehow, the Raiders are the less cursed team in this delicious Shakey’s game. Cincy is a long-tenured veteran of Saturday wild card games, including these paeans of pain: (1) the 2005 Steelers loss where their supernova quarterback got his knee annihilated 5 minutes into the playoffs; (2) the 2009 Jets loss where Shayne Graham’s 28-yard field goal went wide right and locked up Mark Sanchez’ first playoff win; (3) the 2011 Texans loss, to TJ Yates, in which rookie Andy Dalton recorded a Delhomme—3 INTs, 1 pick-six, and 1 fumble; (4) the 2012 Texans loss in which the Bengals defense gave up 19 points, and put up 7 of their own, but still didn’t get enough from Dalton and Co. to win; (5) the 2013 Chargers loss where Dalton gave the home crowd 2 picks, 2 fumbles, and 0 second-half points; (6) the 2014 Colts loss where Cincy put up another donut in the second half; and (7) the 2015 Steelers loss where Vontaze Burfict and Antonio Brown had a disagreement.
That’s the whole list of Cincy playoff games since 1990. Ladies and gentlemen…your 21st century Cincinnati Bengals!!!
Of course, this is a completely different team than those Marvin Lewis squads that went an impossible 0-7 in postseason competition. But, what exactly have these Bengals accomplished? They won a division over an injured QB who didn’t play (Lamar Jackson), an injured QB who did play (Baker Mayfield), and a QB who injures us all by continuing to trot out there every Sunday (Ben Roethlisberger). I’m happy for them that they beat the Chiefs, but what’s their next-most impressive win? And does that win look as good as a recent blowout loss to the mediocre Chargers and a skin-of-their-teeth survival against the Broncos?
I don’t know why I’m getting 1.5 free points for the Raiders in this game. I understand that Cincy beat them comfortably earlier this year, but Vegas is a different group now. Something has clicked in that locker room, and they’re all playing for each other because they probably need to win this game to keep the band together (that goes for the Pit Boss, his assistants, and a good deal of the Gruden-drafted roster). If the Bengals lose this game, what’s the harm? They weren’t supposed to come this far this soon anyway. Win or lose, Burrow’s future will still be bright, and Ja’Marr Chase will still be the most expensive receiver in your fantasy auction next fall.
Simply put, one of these teams wants to win this game, and the other one needs to win. And you’re giving me the 3 home-field points, plus 1.5 more, to take the team that needs to win? Against a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game in the 21st century? Sign me up.
We all have a general idea of what’s going to happen here, right? We know there will be three or four moments in this game where the long-tortured Cincy crowd will groan because Maxx Crosby got into the backfield again versus the porous Bengals o-line. We know there will be a suspect DPI against somebody guarding Zay Jones that will give Las Vegas a red zone trip. And, most of all, we know that this Pit Boss/Zombie Gruden team has had their backs against the wall all season, and pulled out improbable win after improbable win. I say they keep the line moving one more week. Bengals miss a game-tying 2-pointer late and Raiders win outright.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas 27, Cincinnati 25.
BUFFALO (-4) over New England.
Bart Scott suggested that Josh Allen take Viagra before a game? Makes perfect sense. Bart may not have been the best linebacker in the league, but he sure played hard.
--Nate, Denver
What are we going to do if the Pats-Bills game lasts longer than four hours?
--Ido, Switzerland
Ahh, yes, The Viagra Game. These are two teams that spent the 120 minutes of football they played against one another in a continuous dick-measuring contest anyway.
I remember when I was a kid watching football with my dad. Like many fathers and sons, we’d spend hours on the couch, only getting up to grab some food or take a piss. There’s a lot of beer advertised during professional football games. There is also a lot of male enhancement advertised. And, without fail, for a decade, my dad had the same reaction to every single ED medication commercial: muting the television. “Get this trash off my TV!” He was like a little boy plugging his ears and yelling when his third-grade girlfriend is trying to break up with him. As I got older, I started to enjoy this faithful, almost Pavlovian response, because it reminded me that my dad was trying to be willingly ignorant about erectile dysfunction—a widespread medical condition that, just like the common cold, can be cured with a drug.
Men are strange creatures. There are two things that every (straight) man wants every woman in his life to know: (1) he can get it up; and (2) he knows stuff. Viagra, therefore, creates a paradox. You can show a woman you know stuff by telling her that Viagra helps keep you warm in frigid weather, but at what cost? She’ll know you’re familiar with Viagra. Or, you can be ignorant about it, and thus preserve your perceived erectile function, but then you’re a guy who doesn’t know stuff. It’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Bart Scott knew about Viagra; I did not. I don’t know which of us comes off better.
By the way, it's enough with the Patriots, who haven’t played an all-phases good game since November. It’s going to be 10 degrees at kickoff. Mac Jones is from Jacksonville. This is his first winter north of the Mason-Dixon line. He probably doesn’t know what “sleet” means. Oh, and the Bills are clearly the better team. Bill Belichick is the best coach ever; he’s not a necromancer. Remember Rule 9; don’t overthink this one.
PREDICTION: Buffalo 16, New England 6.
TAMPA BAY (-9) over Philadelphia.
The Bucs will never be able to win a Super Bowl with Tom Brady as QB.
--Sal, California
Another Rule 9 game. The Bucs have lost an entire Super Bowl-caliber receiving corps in the past few weeks, they lost 9-0 to a non-playoff team less than a month ago. And nobody believes in the Eagles, even though they've been defensive stalwarts in the second half of the season and Jalen Hurts has repeatedly made the right play when it matters. But, guess what? This is still a team playing for 2024 against a team playing for right now. It’s the defending Super Bowl champs against a team that went 0-6 against playoff teams, and 1-7 against teams above .500. It’s Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts against Bruce Arians and Tom Effing Brady. So, it’s a Rule 4 game as well -- I don’t even think Philly fans genuinely think they can win.
There will be moments when it makes sense to pick against this threadbare Bucs team -- maybe even next week if they draw the Cowboys -- but this ain’t it. Brady’s been to the playoffs 700 times with nary a loss like this one would be.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 31, Philadelphia 12.
San Francisco (+3.5) over DALLAS.
If Madden and Summerall, or Michaels, Deirdorf and Gifford can’t call that Cowboys 49ers game, give me Romo and Nantz.
--Rohit, Los Angeles
I agree that Romo/Nantz is the A-team right now. I keep waiting for the world to turn on Romo’s unique antics, or on Nantz’ eagerness to step on him sometimes, but the truth is that we don’t have another booth who can push them to be truly great. Part of what put Madden/Summerall in that stratosphere all by themselves historically is that they had Gifford/Cosell/Meredith, and later Gifford/Michaels/Dierdorf, following close behind them. Al and Cris are just not quite at those guys’ levels (though I loved Cris spending the final 90 minutes of Raiders/Chargers pining for a tie). No booth with Troy Aikman involved has a chance to get there. I think we’re stuck with Romo/Nantz being the uninspiring title-holders until Peyton Manning or Phil Rivers finally grow a pair and call a game in the standard way. And, yes, I’m furious that Johnson/Talib get buried on Cardinals/Lions at 4:05 pm every Sunday too.
Now, about the game itself: enough has been said about it. We’re all excited. Ultimately, these are two even teams, except Dallas has the superior QB and San Francisco has the superior coach. It’s a great matchup for the Niners because the thing they do best—defensive line—counteracts what the Cowboys do best—offensive line. The trench battle on that side of the ball will make the difference, and we’ll have a lot of fun, but beyond that I don’t have much of a read here. I’m taking the points, and I’m taking Shanahan and Jimmy B-minus against Mike McCarthy and the banged-up Dallas backfield.
PREDICTION: San Francisco 31, Dallas 28.
Pittsburgh (+12.5) over KANSAS CITY.
Who is the “Nobody Believes In Us!” round 1 playoff team?
--Jabaal-Abdul, Los Angeles
Steelers. Steelers. Steelers. Big Ben is leaning all the way into the underdog thing. And, sure, you may say, the Steelers haven't won a playoff game since the 2016 season, and they got trounced by Cleveland last year, and they just lost to Kansas City by 26 a month ago, and their quarterback leaves you so flaccid that you might become impotent for life if you look at him for too long, and it's going to be 30 degrees in Arrowhead on Sunday night (see Rule No. 5), and the Chiefs are the by far the best team of the four years since Bill's last wild-card column, and...yes. All that is true. Nobody believes in "nobody believes in us" teams for a reason, and this Pittsburgh team has quite a few reasons to work with. And, yes, I am egregiously violating Rule 4 by picking a team that I think has virtually no chance, barring a Mahomes injury, to win outright.
But: this is too many points. Let me tell you why.
First and foremost, these two teams are a backdoor cover waiting to happen. The Chiefs are 8-9 against the spread despite going 12-5 straight up -- evidence enough that they allow some crappy teams to cover. And Pittsburgh loves to make up big deficits in postseason garbage time: those famous losses to Jacksonville in 2017 and Cleveland last year ended up closer than you remember. Be honest: do you really trust the Chiefs, one of the great dicking-around teams of our time, to sustain a 17- or 14-point lead with 2 minutes left and Ben looking for one last touchdown? This is so many points that the Chiefs could be up 27-7 with 5 seconds remaining and not cover.
Second, although there have been obvious and memorable exceptions, the Steelers have not made a habit of giving up a ton of points to opposing teams this year. Since the beginning of December, they've given up 19, 36 (that goofy Vikings game that they -- if you'll recall -- came out of nowhere to cover), 13 (to the 1 seed Titans), 36 again (to KC), 14, and 13. That Chiefs game is the only one in that stretch that Pittsburgh didn't win or backdoor cover.
Third, the coaching matchup has to be considered. Mike Tomlin has had some dumb playoff losses, but you know who has the longest reputation for postseason chicanery in today's NFL? That's right: Andrew Reid!!! Bill used to have a gambling manifesto rule specifically tailored to betting against Reid, which I think is unfair now that he's won a title, but let's not pretend like the significant weight of Reid's career doesn't bend toward underperforming all the time. During those 2017 playoffs we keep mentioning, he lost a game to Mike Mularkey's Titans because his team blew a 21-3 lead and gave up a touchdown pass from Marcus Mariota to Marcus Mariota. There are plenty more demons behind that curtain. Don't think for a second that he can't lay another stinkbomb just because he has the baby GOAT in his back pocket now.
Fourth, the Chiefs are obviously the "everyone believes in us" team. Did you know they're +175 to make the Super Bowl when the Bills (on a tear lately) and the Titans (the 1-seed who has a 1-game head start and will only have to beat, at most, one of Buffalo/KC, at home, to win the conference) are +350? These are the same Chiefs who floundered around for the first half of the season, right? The same Chiefs who couldn't finish off the Bengals two weeks ago to clinch the top seed? I'm not saying put your mortgage payment on the Steelers money line, but think about this stupid team getting 12.5 in a playoff game against a Steelers team that has blue-chippers on both sides of the ball.
Fifth, I think Mahomes is a higher injury risk than the normal QB in this situation. He got hurt and missed several weeks in 2019. He had to miss the most of a dicey playoff game against the Browns last season. What happens if he tweaks something when they're up 3 touchdowns early in the 4th? What happens if he gets his brains scrambled again by a gruesome TJ Watt hit?
Sixth, and finally, you know Warren Sharp hates the Steelers. You know Schrager and Simmons talked about this game for 30 seconds on their podcast and basically assumed ipso facto that the Chiefs would cover. You know Joe House is going to tease the Chiefs and the Bucs and somehow get beat on it. You know it will be hilarious when all of these people lose money and KC advances anyway.
I know it's the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger on the road in cold weather against the Chiefs. I know they just lost by 26 to this same team. But I can't take Kansas City -12.5 against a playoff team that has looked better in recent weeks. Choose Rule 1 and Rule 6 at the expense of Rule 4 and Rule 7. Plug your nose. Take the points.
PREDICTION: Kansas City 24, Pittsburgh 16.
LA RAMS (-4) over Arizona.
I feel like nobody cares about this game because we all know both teams are fraudulent. The Rams have 5 of the 6 best players in the game (Hopkins is injured, so it’s just Hurt Kyler against Donald, Ramsey, Kupp, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd) and a clear coaching advantage. LAR is also the home team, and the Cardinals have stunk out loud for the past several weeks, including losing a game last week that could have won them their division, except they were outclassed in all phases by the long-lost Seahawks. Arizona's only good recent win is over Dallas, whom I expressed my reservations about above.
I’ll almost definitely bet on whoever the Rams are playing next week (probably the Packers), but I’m not getting near Arizona under any circumstances. In all honesty, they may be my #14 team in the playoff field.
You can almost hear John Madden watching Deebo Samuel and saying “he’s just a football player.”
--Will, Bay Area
I’m putting this tweet here because it made me wonder who Madden’s favorite modern NFL player would be, and I think it’s a Ram. There are several nominees -- Deebo is one, David Bakhtiari, Micah Parsons -- but the answer is Aaron Donald. Who would geek out more about Donald’s historic brute brilliance, and the fact that a bunch of teams passed on him because he was “undersized,” than Madden? Look at this series of Larry Allen plays, called by Madden mid-orgasm. The guy who can get you the closest approximation of that today is Donald. He’d clearly be the star of the modern all-Madden team.
And if you’re asking me whether we can expect Donald to be terrorizing Injured Kyler while he flings a pass to Christian Kirk or whoever, with Ramsey draped all over him, all night long, the answer is yes. Give me the Rams in a laugher, then they can go lose on the road next week with Stafford, just like they did last year with Goff. Same as it ever was.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles 34, Arizona 20.
By the way, what a cool moment last week when three different generations of football fans got to eulogize Madden in their own ways. I knew him primarily as the video game guy. Simmons knew him as the broadcaster. Simmons’ dad knew him as the coach. One of the coolest legacies imaginable, evidenced by the fact that the internet was so well-behaved when he passed.
Someone is gonna tweet "Bob Saget is railing Betty White with RBG and John Madden" and it will get a million retweets.
--Blake, Cincinnati
Wait, what? Did I speak too soon?? Are we...in range???
The creation of the Madden video game was not a great development for the U.S. It further glamorized violence and dehumanized Black athletes, helping to establish plantation cosplay that has grown worse in the era of fantasy football. When your entire life is based on expanding and profiting off one of the most violent and exploitative games, veneration is not exactly something that you deserve.
--Andrew, Dallas
Um, well, I guess we're getting there...
I had a white friend once. He loved the Madden video game.
--Ryen, Malibu
...yup. These are my tweeters.

Since drafting a QB is the hot topic I complied a list of every first run quarterback drafted by team in the Super Bowl era. What team do you think has done the best & worst in picking franchise QB’s?
Bears (five): Mitchell Trubisky (2017); Rex Grossman (2003); Cade McNown (1999); Jim Harbaugh (1987); Jim McMahon (1982).
Bengals (six): Joe Burrow (2020); Carson Palmer (2003); Akili Smith (1999); David Klinger (1992); Jack Thompson (1979); Greg Cook (1969).
Bills (four): Josh Allen (2018); EJ Manuel (2013); J.P. Losman (2004); Jim Kelly (1983).
Broncos (four): Paxton Lynch (2016); Tim Tebow (2010); Jay Cutler (2006); Tommy Maddox (1992).
Browns (seven): Baker Mayfield (2018); Johnny Manziel (2014); Brandon Weeden (2012); Brady Quinn (2007); Tim Couch (1999); Bernie Kosar (1985 supplemental); Mike Phipps (1970).
Buccaneers (five): Jameis Winston (2015); Josh Freeman (2009); Trent Dilfer (1994); Vinny Testaverde (1987); Doug Williams (1978).
Colts (six): Andrew Luck (2012); Peyton Manning (1998); Jeff George (1990); John Elway (1983); Art Schlicter (1982); Bert Jones (1973).
Cardinals (six): Kyler Murray (2019); Josh Rosen (2018); Matt Leinart (2006); Timm Rosenbach (1989 supplemental); Kelly Stouffer (1987); Steve Pisarkiewicz (1977).
Chargers (four): Justin Herbert (2020); Eli Manning (2004); Ryan Leaf (1998); Marty Domres (1969).
Chiefs (three): Patrick Mahomes (2017); Todd Blackledge (1983); Steve Fuller (1979).
Cowboys (two): Troy Aikman (1989); Steve Walsh (1989 supplemental).
Dolphins (five): Tua Tagovailoa (2020); Ryan Tannehill (2012); Dan Marino (1983); Bob Griese (1967); Rick Norton (1966).
Eagles (three): Carson Wentz (2016); Donovan McNabb (1999); John Reaves (1972);
Falcons (five): Matt Ryan (2008); Michael Vick (2001); Chris Miller (1987); Steve Bartowski (1975); Randy Johnson (1966).
49ers (three): Alex Smith (2005); Jim Druckenmiller (1997); Steve Spurrier (1967).
Giants (four): Daniel Jones (2019); Philip Rivers (2004); Dave Brown (1992 supplemental); Phil Simms (1979).
Jaguars (three): Blake Bortles (2013); Blaine Gabbert (2011); Byron Leftwich (2003).
Jets (five): Sam Darnold (2018); Mark Sanchez (2009); Chad Pennington (2000); Ken O’Brien (1983); Richard Todd (1976).
Lions (five): Matthew Stafford (2009); Joey Harrington (2002); Andre Ware (1990); Chuck Long (1986); Greg Landry (1968).
Packers (five): Jordan Love (2020); Aaron Rodgers (2005); Rich Campbell (1981); Jerry Tagge (1972); Don Horn (1967).
Panthers (two): Cam Newton (2011); Kerry Collins (1995).
Patriots (three): Drew Bledsoe (1993); Tony Eason (1983); Jim Plunkett (1971).
Raiders (three): JaMarcus Russell (2007); Todd Marinovich (1991); Marc Wilson (1980).
Rams (two): Jared Goff (2016); Sam Bradford (2010).
Ravens (three): Lamar Jackson (2018); Joe Flacco (2008); Kyle Boller (2003).
Saints (two): Dave Wilson (1981 supplemental); Archie Manning (1971).
Seahawks (two): Rick Mirer (1993); Dan McGwire (1991).
Steelers (three): Ben Roethlisberger (2004); Mark Malone (1980); Terry Bradshaw (1970).
Texans (two): Deshaun Watson (2017); David Carr (2002).
Titans (six): Marcus Mariota (2015); Jake Locker (2011); Vince Young (2006); Steve McNair (1995); Jim Everett (1986); Dan Pastorini (1971).
Vikings (four): Teddy Bridgewater (2014); Christian Ponder (2011); Daunte Culpepper (1999); Tommy Kramer (1977).
Washington (five): Dwayne Haskins (2019); Robert Griffin III (2012); Jason Campbell (2005); Patrick Ramsey (2002); Heath Shuler (1994).

​
https://preview.redd.it/cdlxoeaxl5d51.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=65dc74bfa600d709424746064b1ed5fe4f6b01dc
​
Since this was kind of a trending topic a few weeks ago and I saw a lot of media outlets/networks put out their rankings of the top triplets in the NFL, I thought I needed to put myself into the conversation and right some of wrongs that were done.
This list only includes combinations of one quarterback, running back and wide receiver each. That means no players beyond that and no consideration of the offensive scheme or play-caller, as much as that’s possible. And to lay the ground rules – all three positions are weighed equally. So just because you have one of the elite quarterbacks doesn’t necessarily put you up there and if one of those spots doesn’t have a really good player, I don’t care how great the other two are.
So with that being said, here is my list of the best trios in the league:
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/oqlfljzzl5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb21a3f7279a892b19c5e69cca903d1e66d3cbfe

1. Green Bay Packers – Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones & Davante Adams

I usually found this trio around five or six on most lists, but this is the way I have these guys ranked – Aaron Rodgers is my number five quarterback in the league right now, Jones has established himself as a clear top ten back – and you could argue that he is closer to five than ten – and Adams is the third-best receiver in football for me.
Rodgers might have declined a little these last few years, but a lot of that had to do with injuries in 2017 and ’18. In 2016 he led the league with 40 touchdown passes and a passer rating North of 100. Last season in Matt LaFleur’s offensive system, which is an adaption of Shanahan’s scheme, being built on the zone run game and bootlegs off that, to go with well-designed screen passes, Rodgers didn’t quite put up as explosive numbers as we are used to from him, but he still elevated a roster that I wouldn’t put in my top ten to a 13-3 record with a first-round bye in the playoffs. He led the team to an 8-1 record in one-score games and was top ten in both intended air yards (8.9) and yards to the sticks on average (+0.1), without a second receiver reaching 500 receiving yards. He might have lost some of that mobility to extend plays and is a little more hesitant to just fire the ball deep, but he is still one of the league’s best.
Jones had the breakout season I projected him to pretty much exactly a year ago. (LINK!!) He put together 1558 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage, whilst becoming the Packers’ first 1000-yard rusher since Eddie Lacy back in 2014. Jones may not be very big, but he has good contact balance and ability to slither through defenses, whilst also featuring that second gear to pull away from opponents. While his production might not have been quite as consistent as it was with other guys at the position, what really stood out about the fourth-year back for Green Bay is the way he took over some games. There were five contests in which he recorded 150+ yards from scrimmage and he scored multiple touchdowns in six of them. He is a tough inside runner, has that burst to the edge and he gets involved as a downfield receiver as well.
Adams has steadily improved every single season pretty much since coming out of Fresno State in 2014. In 2018 he put up career-highs with nearly 1400 receiving yards and 13 TDs. Last season he was off to a great start once again and on pace to set new personal marks, before banging up his toe in a ten-catch, 180-yard performance against the Eagles in week four. That cost him four games and slowed him down even after that, before going off for 300 combined yards in their two playoff games. Adams is one of the best route-runners in the NFL, thanks to the way he sets up his breaks with head-fakes and body-language, but his body control and great hands also allow him to win in 50-50 ball situations and routinely keep his feet in bounds on catches along the sideline. Rodgers will once again heavily rely on #17 this season.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/84odlwr2m5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c55402eefe5b717e9265e9c2555f211a87f52dc9
​

2. New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara & Michael Thomas

This is the clear second choice for me here and the gap between two and three is much bigger than the difference between one and two. There’s a strong argument that the Saints have a top three running back and wide receiver, but to me their aging quarterback drags them down just a little bit. As great as he is all-time, we are talking about the talent of these players in 2020.
Brees is the league’s all-time leader in completions, yards and touchdowns for a reason. He is like a well-oiled machine in that Sean Payton offense, with complete control at the line and rapid quickness to work through progressions. Last season he missed five games (plus) with a thumb injury, but still threw for just under 3000 yards and 27 touchdowns compared to only four picks. However, you have to consider that he has one of the all-time great offensive play-designers, a record-setting wide receiver and an elite offensive line. As much as he excels from the shoulders up, he can not really push the ball down the field anymore because of the way his arm has fallen off, indicated by the fourth-lowest number of intended air yards (6.7) among quarterback with at least 100 attempts. Brees is still one of the premiere field generals, but he’s just not as explosive a passer as some other guys on this list.
Kamara was banged up quite a bit last season as well. While he did play in all but two games and put together over 1300 scrimmage yards, according to himself, Kamara was playing “on one leg”, referring to lingering knee and ankle injuries. He still made his third straight Pro Bowl, but after two years of being part of a one-two punch with Mark Ingram, Kamara had a chance to really blow up last season. We still have to see if he can handle the full load, but there are only about four guys I would define as true workhorse backs in the league anyway, and the Saints’ young star has been incredibly effective (6.61 per touch through first two seasons). He has just stupid contact balance, is super explosive and basically uncoverable on option routes out of the backfield. Even with Latavius Murray taking away some touches, I would expect 1600-1800 scrimmage yards next season.
Thomas to me is the second-best receiver in the league behind only Julio Jones. Most people want to put him at the top of the list right now, after setting a new record in most receptions in a season (149) and leading the league in receiving yards (1725), but I don’t think he is quite as dynamic after the catch and threating the defense vertically. Still, he is such a physical, well-schooled route-runner, who routinely comes through for them on third downs and catches pretty much everything thrown his way, thanks to his strong hands and concentration (only nine drops on 274 receptions since 2018). While he can obviously win from the outside and at the catch point, you “can’t guard Mike” on slant routes or crossers and operating out of the slot. And now the Saints finally added a viable number two receiver in Emmanuel Sanders.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/1k3asne4m5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2a5f17b640901a5b9ec3c0bc111c614c9073890
​

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire & Tyreek Hill

This triplet is the only with an unproven commodity at the NFL level, but I see their rookie running back as such a perfect fit and my belief in the other two pieces is so large, that I couldn’t really put them any lower. Patrick Mahomes is pretty much in a class by himself and Tyreek Hill is the league’s premiere big-play threat.
Mahomes just earned the biggest contract for any professional athlete in team sports that we have ever seen (based on total earnings). He may be the most talented player we have ever gotten to watch and the accomplishments through his first two years are just absurd. He has combined for 76 touchdowns compared to 17 INTs, 303.6 passing yards per game, while still completing 66 percent of his passes despite averaging 8.6 yards per attempt (second to only Otto Graham all-time). He has already won a league MVP and led his team to their first Super Bowl trophy in 50 years, leading his team to three consecutive double-digit comebacks and wrapping things up with an MVP in the big game. He can make throws no other QB in the league would even attempt and the scary thing is that he can still get better.
Edwards-Helaire to me was right on the fringe of being a top 50 prospect in the draft and I had a few backs ranked ahead of him, but I predicted he would go there in my mock draft and he could make this KC offense outright unfair. At LSU last season he averaged 6.6 yards per carry and caught 55 passes, whilst reaching the end-zone 17 times. As great as Joe Burrow and all those receivers were for the Tigers, in a lot of games you could argued that this 5’7” bowling ball was the best player on the field. Not only does Edwards-Helaire have excellent vision and short-area quickness, but he routinely ran through defenders and he averaged 3.65 yards after contact. I have talked about this several times now – when you have all those guys streaking downfield for the Chiefs and then this guy catches a check-down with the mentality to go through your face, nobody will want to tackle him.
Hill came into the league as more of a gadget player, going for 860 yards and nine touchdowns on 85 touches as a rookie, in addition to three more scores in the return game. However, he has developed into an outstanding all-around receiver, highlighted by just under 1500 yards and 12 TDs through the air alone in 2018. While we don’t have any official combine numbers on him, my eyes tell me that Hill is the fastest player in the NFL and nobody puts more fear into the heart of defenses to beat them deep. Yet, he also has lightning-quick feet, has become a much more advanced route-runner and shows tremendous focus when the ball is in the air. Last year he was knocked out early in the season-opener and ended up missing four games, but when his team needed him most, he came through – catching that 44-yard bomb on third-and-long in the Super Bowl, when the 49ers seemed to have firm control over the game.
https://preview.redd.it/17nazvzam5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ade66fa994815b713634a028d9dfa0310a1e8dde
​

4. Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake & DeAndre Hopkins

This is the new wave of playmakers. Kyler Murray came in as the number one overall pick in last year’s draft and instantly became the man for this team. Kenyan Drake came over from Miami in the middle of last season and immediately got the majority of the touches among that group of backs and now with the trade for DeAndre Hopkins as a true number one receiver, this passing attack could go to a different level.
Murray had an easy transition from Oklahoma to another Air Raid offense under Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona and while there were some struggles early on for him personally, as well as the head coach having to make some adjustments to his system, overall the rookie QB had an excellent debut campaign. Kyler completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3700 yards and 20 touchdowns compared to 12 INTs, to go along with another 544 yards and five scores as a runner (second to only Lamar). While the team “only” won five games, I expect their dynamic signal-caller to take a big step forward in 2020. Murray was sacked a league-high 48 times last season and his best receiver for most of his rookie campaign was a 36-year old Larry Fitzgerald. This guy has one of the top five arms in the world and the elusiveness to extend plays or make people miss for crucial first downs.
Drake was a revelation in Arizona last season, after he was acquired for a sixth-round pick mid-season. After averaging only 3.7 yards per carry through the first six games with Miami, he put together 814 yards from scrimmage on just 151 touches and eight touchdowns over the final eight weeks. While he did show some signs with the team that originally drafted him, he never got the amount of touches he deserved and he is just a perfect fit in this wide-open Cardinals offense. When they spread the field with four receivers and then run zone-read or speed option against six defenders in the box, they actually have the +1 a lot of times, and when you give Drake some space to work with, he can be a dynamic player. That also is the case on quick swing screens as an extension of the run game or getting involved on delayed screens. However, he can also make people miss in tight spaces and I would expect the 26-year old to have a monster year in his first full season in the desert.
Hopkins has been one of the elite receivers in the game for several years now. Outside of that 2016 season, when Brock Osweiler couldn’t even put the ball to where “Nuk” could make a play on it, he has averaged 100 catches for 1243 and 9.6 touchdowns since his rookie season, despite catching passes from quarterbacks like Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett until the Texans finally found a franchise signal-caller. D-Hop is probably the most physical and aggressive receiver before the catch, he shows outstanding body adjustments when it’s in the air and he has the most reliable hands in the game with huge paws to just swallow the ball. Now with extra motivation after being traded away and as part of an offense that already finished top ten in pass attempts, despite having a rookie QB and limited weapons, expect this guy to ball out once again.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/rqlkplecm5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=409aaf7cc9fe93cf5f469fd68fd86ef53d871c40
​

5. Cleveland Browns – Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb & Odell Beckham Jr.

Probably the most controversial pick on my list here, I still think the Browns have one of the most lethal trios in the game. Baker Mayfield had kind of a sophomore slump after showing great signs as a rookie, but Nick Chubb led the league in rushing all the way until week 17 and while he hasn’t lived up to expectations in Cleveland yet, OBJ is clearly one of the most talented receivers this league has ever seen.
Mayfield certainly showed some regression in year two, when it comes to downfield accuracy, decision-making and just taking care of the ball. If it wasn’t for Jameis Winston blowing everybody out of the water, Baker would have led the league with 21 interceptions thrown and like I mentioned recently, you can put several of those 40 sacks last season on him for bailing on the pocket or holding onto the ball too long. However, the Browns did have a horrendous duo of offensive tackles that were often more speedbumps on the way to the guy with the ball and there were a bunch of lingering injuries with this group of skill-position players. This offense should be built on the ground game, but because they fell behind in so many games, Baker finished with 33.4 pass attempts per game and there were so many occasions, where he and his receiver clearly weren’t on the same page, in terms of how to break off routes, and they let him down quite a bit with drops, as six of them directly lead to INTs.
Chubb still isn’t getting the recognition he deserves. He was the best player on this entire team and while I don’t want to take anything away from that incredible run Derrick Henry had late last season, the Browns RB deserved that rushing crown. He was up almost 100 yards on Henry, who went for over 200 in a week 17 matchup with Houston, who were sitting most of their starters. Chubb still finished with just under 1500 yards and eight TDs on right around 300 attempts and he added another 36 catches for 277 yards, while Henry was the only other player with 200+ carries to average at least 5.0 yards per attempt. Because of those two tackles I already referenced (which will be replaced by what could be one of the better duos in the league), Chubb did not nearly have as much success running off-tackle as he should have, but he is built low to the ground, with a running style that has a cumulative effect on the opposing team because of the way he loads up that shoulder, and he has much better pull-away speed than people think.
Beckham Jr. had the greatest rookie season we have ever seen from a wide receiver and he continued to wow fans over his next four years in New York City. Until he was traded to Cleveland last offseason, he was averaging 92.8 receiving yards per game – which would rank behind only Julio Jones in terms of career averages – and expectations were high for him pairing up with Baker and his former LSU teammate Jarvis. Unfortunately he never looked like the dynamic superstar we were used to from the Big Apple, with just two games of more than 100 yards. However, I think a lot of that was due to a foot injury that was bothering him all year long and missing chemistry with his new QB. While the Cleveland offense will be run-first under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, with Baker going deep off play-action or giving OBJ a chance to run after the catch on a slant on the backside of an RPO concept, we could see a lot more of those splash plays that we’re accustomed to from him.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/0nhhd90em5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=7974a443122232c041cebedb36fcf64515d5a5e2
​

6. Dallas Cowboys – Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott & Amari Cooper

The Cowboys are the team that brought us the original triplet in the 90s with Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin. This version of it is pretty good too, even though those guys are very expensive. Dak Prescott had a good chance of becoming the league highest-paid player until Patrick Mahomes got his monster deal, Ezekiel Elliott got the biggest contract at his position last offseason (before Christian McCaffrey recently surpassed him) and Amari Cooper’s 100 million dollars of total value is the still the highest among all receivers.
Prescott came in as a fourth-round pick in 2016 and played so well in place of Tony Romo, that the veteran QB decided to retire. I don’t think his development has gone the way people expected it to after seeing what he did as a rookie, but he just put up career-highs in passing yards (4902) and touchdowns (30), whilst picking up the second-most first-downs through the air (229) and finishing in the top five in yards per attempt (8.2). While I would classify him to have general rather than pin-point accuracy, he can get the ball anywhere on the field, extends plays and you simply can’t overlook his rushing production, with over 1200 yards and another 21 trips to the end-zone through his four years in the league. With that being said, he has benefitted from a great O-line in Dallas and a team that was built on the rushing attack. He came up small in some of their biggest games (at New England, versus Buffalo on Thanksgiving and at Philadelphia to decide the division for example). He is right on the fringe of top ten at the position for me.
Elliott had an even greater debut campaign and should have actually been the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2016 over his teammate, after leading the league with over 1600 rushing yards. He repeated that feat two years later and got a big-time contract, which he now needs to justify. Last season I thought he didn’t quite have that breakaway gear and explosion through the hole we have gotten used to from him. But some of that might have to do with the fact he has averaged 20.8 rushing attempts per game alone and that doesn’t even include 189 more catches, plus the Cowboys’ heavy tendency of running the ball on first down, where Zeke was not effective on at all last season. He is still one of the elite pass-protecting backs in the league and if he can shed just a couple of pounds this offseason, he might look more dynamic already again. This guy is certainly one of the most complete backs we have.
Cooper was originally selected at the same spot in the draft a year before Zeke (fourth overall) by Oakland, where he had kind of an inconsistent start to his career. Since he has come over to Big D, he has put up over 1900 receiving yards and 14 TDs in 25 games. I can deal with some drop issues for this guy, but the two things that keep me from ranking him higher individually are the facts that similar to his quarterback, he hasn’t really shown up in the big matchups and he had big issues getting off press against the really physical corners like Stephon Gilmore and Jalen Ramsey last season. With that being said, he is still an exquisite router-runner, who can break the ankles of defenders with the way he sets up double-moves. 54 of his 79 catches last season resulted in a fresh set of downs and he is an amazing toe-tap artist.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/tqjnpo0km5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=e30daf31dfe6f7e5771255a7d3b8199101d9b800
​

7. Minnesota Vikings – Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook & Adam Thielen

For the Vikings, they might be the most underrated trio we have in the league. They have a quarterback who is always right there around the top ten, until this offseason they had two guys who could be called number ones and now a running back, who finished behind only Christian McCaffrey in terms of yards from scrimmage per game.
Cousins may not ever be looked at as an elite quarterback and you could argue that he is more the result of the pieces around him, but you can’t disagree with the numbers. There have been some bad moments for him, but all he has done through his two years in Minnesota, is complete almost 70 percent of his passes for 7900 yards and 56 touchdowns. He had a lot of success last season in particular in that Kevin Stefanski/Gary Kubiak offense, where he was put on the move off bootlegs and could get his tight-ends involved or square his shoulder and go deep. He finished in the top six in touchdown percentage (5.9%), average yards per attempt (8.2) and passer rating (107.4), while also leading the league in time to throw (3.01 seconds), killing some of the stereotypes of not been as much of a vertical passer. He still has that stigma around him when it comes to primetime games, but with a big playoff victory in New Orleans, he has given himself some room to breathe.
Cook was on an incredible pace last season, until he got knocked out in week 15 with a shoulder injury, averaging 118 yards and just under one touchdown per game up to that point. He would return for their Wildcard Round game in New Orleans and go for 130 yards from scrimmage and reach the end-zone twice in an upset victory, before the 49ers put the clamps on that entire Vikings squad the following week. Dalvin is a homerun threat from the running back position, who does an excellent job pressing the front-side on those zone run plays and making a fluid cutback to take advantage of those lanes opening up inside once he gets around the edge a few times early on. He was also highly effective on screen plays last season and was the main reason their play-action was as effective as it was.
Thielen to me was always right behind his now-former teammate Stefon Diggs, but the guy who still remains with the Vikings has mostly been more productive and more trusted by his quarterback during their time there. I still remember watching Thielen cover and return kicks as an unknown player, who got his shot after a local tryout, in preseason of 2014. He has come incredibly far to someone who recorded 2790 yards and 13 TDs in 2017 and ’18 combined. I thought Thielen was actually a little overhyped two years ago, when he started the season with an impressive eight straight 100-yard games, until he began facing some of the better corners in the league, but because he was banged up for most of last season, he is actually being undervalued right now and will be a frequent target for me in fantasy football. Thielen is a very patient and deceptive route-runner, plus he routinely makes the tough catches downfield. It will be interesting to see how the Vikes use him and rookie Justin Jefferson, since both to me are at their best in the slot, but could have interchangeable roles.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/b7vrlgqlm5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c965b1d4a478f47a3f48982414db781a879e68a1
​

8. Tennessee Titans – Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry & A.J. Brown

If you had put this trio up here a year ago, most people would have probably laughed at you. Derrick Henry did look like a monster down the stretch in 2018, but Ryan Tannehill was mostly referred to as a disappointing draft pick and Brown was selected just outside the top 50 and labelled as a slot receiver only. However, these guys were a huge part in leading Tennessee to their first AFC Championship game appearance since 2002.
Tannehill is a former top ten pick from the 2012 draft, who six weeks into last season, when taking over for Marcus Mariota, started turning this Titans squad and his career around. Completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 22 touchdowns compared to six INTs and leading the team to 7-3 record in the regular season is already pretty great, but the reigning Comeback Player of the Year was one of the best across pretty much all of the advanced stats. He finished third in both average intended air yards (9.6) and yards beyond the sticks (0.6) – both behind only Matt Stafford and Jameis Winston. He also had the second-highest touchdown percentage behind only Lamar Jackson (7.7) and a full yard more per attempt than any other QB in the league, to along with the top passer-rating (117.6). In addition to that, Tannehill pulled the ball on a couple of zone read plays or just took off for big conversions. Of his 43 carries last season, 14 went for first downs and he finished four of them in the end-zone. The only question now – Did he just catch lightning in a bottle for one year on a team with a great rushing attack?
Henry is the league’s reigning rushing leader with 1540 yards and he tied for a league-high 16 touchdowns, giving him an average 5.1 yards per attempt and almost 1000 of his rushing yards came after contact. While a 250-pound banger like that puts fear in the heart of defenders just because of what a freight train he is coming right at them, the speed for a guy his size is just ridiculous. The Titans run a lot of inside and outside zone, where Henry can build up momentum and as long as you don’t force him to stop his feet and change directions in the backfield, he is a load to bring down. But if you allow him to get to the edge, he has those long arms to keep defenders away from his body and once he gets past the second level of the defense, opposing safeties better be willing to stick their face in the fan and be able to keep up with those long strides.
Brown was only a rookie last season, but immediately became the team’s number one receiver over a slightly older top five pick in Corey Davis. The former Ole Miss pass-catcher hauled in 52 balls for 1051 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 20.2 yards per grab and picking up 39 first downs on the way. All of that despite seeing only 84 targets come his direction. Comparing that to a guy like Alshon Jeffery of the Eagles, with similar measurements, who saw 73 targets, he didn’t even crack the 500-yard mark. Brown has such a thick, strong build and not only is he physical with the ball in his hands, but he also showed the ability to rip off big plays by running away from defenders on slants over the middle or tracking the deep ball, to go along with some jet sweeps. He has already proven that he can succeed inside and out and should improve his production with more chances.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/tywuaegom5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebb1cce0997f3c528c00335a8ad8bdb4167bf835
​

9. Seattle Seahawks – Russell Wilson, Chris Carson & D.K. Metcalf

This group from the Pacific Northwest is somewhat carried by their quarterback, but they have a running back who just continues to produce no matter how much people want to doubt and a potential superstar in the making at the wide receiver position. When the quarterback fakes the hand-off and then throws the ball deep to his young wideout, it creates major issues for opponents.
Wilson to me is the second-best quarterback in the league and if I needed one score at the end of the game, I want the ball in that guy’s hands. Even if you take away those three years to start off his career, when the Legion of Boom got all the credit and Russ was quietly getting the job done as a super-effective player – over these last five seasons, he has averaged 3957 passing yards and 31 touchdowns compared to 8.4 interceptions. That doesn’t even include well over 2000 yards and eight more scores on the ground. Wilson is an incredible deep-ball thrower on those rainbow passes right into the bread-basket of his receivers, indicated by an average of 54.2 passes of 20+ yards over that same stretch. Most impressively, he has done all of that despite playing behind a top bottom-ten offensive line pretty much throughout his career and his own coaching staff taking the ball out of his hands, as one of the most run-heavy teams with little chances to throw the ball on first downs. Russ constantly extends plays and wills his team to victory, having finished above .500 every single season of his career.
Carson is a guy who people constantly believe will be replaced, especially after selecting Rashaad Penny in the first round of the draft a couple of years ago, but somehow he always shoulders the majority of the load. Over these last two seasons as a starter in Seattle, he has put up just over 2800 yards and 18 touchdowns, despite missing three combined games. Since 2018, Nick Chubb is the only running back with more missed tackles forced (110 over 107) and 55.8 percent of Carson’s rushing yards have come after contact, while gaining 29 yards more after the catch than his receiving total shows. I don’t think anybody in the league runs harder than this guy and not even his own team could bench him, if they wanted to. The only issue with Carson has been fumbles, since he has put the ball on the ground ten times combined over these last two years.
Metcalf is the “other” Ole Miss receiver, who actually went a little later than his teammate in the second round of last year’s draft, but people just overthought. I had him as my number one receiver available because of the freakish size, speed and physicality he presented. People got way too hung up with his poor time in the three-cone drill and the fact he ran a very limited route-tree in college. While he did mostly run slants, hitches and fade routes as a rookie and will probably never run too many intricate routes down the field, he is very productive on those and ran some double-moves later on in the season. While he did have his struggles early on with drops and fumbled three times, he also showed improvements with setting up his routes and already earned the trust from his quarterback to win one-on-one or make the proper adjustments on the scramble drill. Metcalf finished the season by breaking the rookie receiving record in their Wildcard game against the Eagles, when he went for 160 yards. I could have easily chosen Tyler Lockett here as well, but D.K. could be nightmare to cover for years to come.
​
​
https://preview.redd.it/ycack7hqm5d51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fb7c76064ecb13de2f16c260644b34f4cd8a7f6
​

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tom Brady, Ronald Jones II & Mike Evans

And the final trio on this list starts with a quarterback, who after two decades in New England has now joined a new team. Tom Brady is coming to Tampa to pair up with probably the best receiving duo in the league today in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, plus a three-headed monster at tight-end. The running back room still has to settle the split of their workload, but to me RoJo is still their top guy.
Brady has a resume that nobody in NFL history can match – second to only Drew Brees in both passing yards and touchdowns, 14-time Pro Bowler, three league MVPs and the six rings of course – and while his numbers have gone down these last two seasons, because of all the young phenoms we have today, people seem to forget that he led the league in touchdown passes and was named MVP in 2017 only. I saw a little tendency to not be willing to stand in there and take some hits in order to make those big-time throws last season – which is why I will be interested to see how much more of the quick game Bruce Arians will incorporate into his vertical passing attack – but at 43 years old, Brady’s arm isn’t much worse than it was 20 years ago. He is still close to a pin-point thrower in-between the numbers, plays with a tremendous fire and has come up clutch when his team needed him most over and over again.
Jones II had an unbelievable junior season at USC, when he averaged 5.9 yards per carry and 13.4 yards per reception, on his way to over 1700 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns. His rookie season in the NFL was highly disappointing, touching the ball only 30 times and averaging less than two yards per carry in the nine games he played. Last year he looked a lot better and started the final nine games, touching the ball over 200 times overall for more than 1000 yards and six TDs, while more than doubling his yards per rush attempts (4.2) and catching 31 passes. While I don’t the same kind of dynamic runner, in terms of making people miss and ripping off long runs, I think he has become a much tougher ball-carrier in-between the tackles and that production as a receiver will be crucial as Brady comes in, who has completed 120+ passes to his backs in each of the last three seasons.
Evans got the slight nod over Chris Godwin, simply because he has done it for a longer period of time and is a little more of a downfield weapon. Evans is now the only receiver in NFL history to start out his career with six consecutive seasons of 1000+ receiving yards. His 80.7 receiving yards per game is more than Jerry Rice, Randy Moss or T.O. have put up for their respective careers and he has scored 49 touchdowns in 90 games so far. Big Mike is a dominant receiver when the ball is in the air of course, but he also gets in and out of his breaks much better than any 6’5”, 230-pound receiver I have seen and what I really appreciate about him, is the fact he gets after defenders as a blocker. And since we’re at comparisons right now, Evans’ 17.5 yards per grab over the last two seasons is 1.5 yards better than what Tyreek Hill has done over that stretch with the most explosive deep-ball thrower in the league.
​
​

Just missed the cut:

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, Todd Gurley & Julio Jones
Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford, D’Andre Swift & Kenny Golladay
Pittsburgh Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner & Juju Smith-Schuster
​
If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/07/21/best-triplets-in-the-nfl-going-into-2020/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn4020ehHNQ

QB: PU Troy Aikman WR: Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and TO TE: 90 George Kittle, and Darren Waller LG: TB Andrew Norwell LOLB: Khalil Mack SS: Pat tillman CB: Deion, Denzel ward, and Ramsey LE: FL Reggie White

First, I just want to say. I am no expert. I wasn't even especially rigorous. This is just fun and probably not a very good way to predict anything. However, I think I manage to get some interesting results. Including that this model really just fell in love with Gardner Minshew.
For those of you unfamiliar with linear regression, you might want to watch this Khan Academy video to get an idea of how I did this.
I wanted to build a model that could take a quarterbacks college stats and try to predict what kind of statistical output they would have in the pros. As an added bonus, once I projected them in the pros, I tried to figure out what pro quarterbacks had similar numbers to their projections.
The first thing I did was decide what statistics I wanted to use to make my model. I decided to not use any volume stats and only use efficiency stats. I did not want to favor good QBs that had been in the NFL a long time or bad ones that managed to stick around. And because this draft features Kyler Murray, you bet I wanted to try to throw in some rushing statistics too.
I decided to build a model using a QB college stats: * Games played in college * Completion % * TD% * INT% * Yards / Attempt * Yards / Game * Rushing Yards / Attempt * Rush Yards / Game * Rush Attempts / Game
To predict these stats in the NFL: * Completion % * TD% * INT% * Yards / Attempt * Yards / Game * Rushing Yards / Attempt * Rush Yards / Game * Rush Attempts / Game
Then I went to acquire both professional and college statistics on Quarterbacks. Sports reference custom leader boards for college football only went to 2000, so anyone who entered the NFL before then was not used to build the model. So far as active quarterbacks, it only excludes Tom Brady and Drew Brees who are such freaks they probably shouldn't be included anyway. I also did not want to include any quarterbacks who were rookies last year. For instance, I did not think Josh Rosen's numbers last really represent the kind of Pro quarterback he will eventually become.
Then I took all of the quarterbacks from this upcoming draft, and fed their career stats through the model I had created. This is a projection of what their pro stats might look like based upon what they were able to produce in college. I sorted by TD% because scoring points is how you win, and you play to win the game.

Using Career Stats

Stat Projections

Player	Cmp%	TD%	INT%	Yds/Att	Yds/Game	Rush Yds/Att	Rush Yds/Game	Rush Att/Game
Kyler Murray	58.76	4.55	3.28	7.1	186.54	5.53	23.53	4.34
Ryan Finley	61.69	3.86	3.05	6.96	201.58	3.56	7.12	1.94
Drew Lock	57.92	3.82	3.35	6.59	179.31	2.95	7.81	1.99
Tyree Jackson	58.08	3.81	2.91	6.52	178.49	3.8	11.29	2.55
Gardner Minshew	61.15	3.8	2.63	6.85	212.9	2.73	4.47	1.63
Dwayne Haskins	59.62	3.74	2.67	6.75	200.78	3.71	12.56	3.
Will Grier	58.03	3.67	3.48	6.55	182.33	3.19	8.78	2.37
Jake Browning	60.01	3.62	3.41	6.85	173.99	3.48	8.69	2.17
Daniel Jones	59.69	3.54	2.72	6.65	161.9	4.89	14.38	2.94
Jordan Ta'amu	59.64	3.52	3.12	6.52	175.78	4.39	12.7	2.91
Trace McSorley	58.15	3.51	2.94	6.54	151.26	4.65	16.68	3.27
Clayton Thorson	59.86	3.44	3.22	6.71	161.23	3.72	7.48	1.92
Brett Rypien	60.3	3.42	3.21	6.71	180.2	2.67	4.8	1.61
Jarrett Stidham	60.11	3.25	2.68	6.61	172.45	3.65	10.3	2.54
Kyle Shurmur	57.85	2.87	3.01	6.31	144.52	1.67	1.57	1.1

You'll notice that Kyler Murray shows up at the top with a 4.55% Touchdown percentage. That actually is not amazing and would have put him about around 20th in 2018. Just below Nick Mullens and above Dak Prescott. I think just kind of shows how many quarterbacks can put up great numbers in college and then totally flop in the NFL. I suspect any model that looks at the numbers is just going to learn that basically all quarterbacks suck.
Then after I had projected their NFL stats, I compared their projections to NFL quarterbacks who played after the year 1990. This does not have the same restrictions as the QBs used to build the model because I wasn't using their college stats in any way. Disclaimer, if you see someone and you think aren't they from the 80s? (Such as Jim McMahon who does appear here), you're looking at the post-1990 version of them.
For people who are nerds: To make these comparisons, I normalized everyone's stats and took the 2-norm to figure distances.

QB Comparisons

QB	Cmp 1	Cmp 2	Cmp 3	Cmp 4	Cmp 5
Kyler Murray	Randall Cunningham	Steve McNair	Doug Flutie	Donovan McNabb	David Garrard
Ryan Finley	Matt Hasselbeck	Jon Kitna	Troy Aikman*	Case Keenum	Trevor Siemian
Drew Lock	Boomer Esiason	Byron Leftwich	Mark Sanchez	Brandon Weeden	Kevin Kolb
Tyree Jackson	Matt Cassel	Josh McCown	Byron Leftwich	Jeff Hostetler	Mark Brunell
Gardner Minshew	Troy Aikman*	Kyle Orton	Joe Flacco	Trevor Siemian	Case Keenum
Dwayne Haskins	Josh McCown	Jason Campbell	Rich Gannon	John Elway*	Trevor Siemian
Will Grier	Mark Sanchez	Matt Cassel	Byron Leftwich	Brandon Weeden	Boomer Esiason
Jake Browning	Kevin Kolb	Matt Hasselbeck	Matt Cassel	Josh McCown	Brandon Weeden
Daniel Jones	Jim Harbaugh	Jason Campbell	Mark Brunell	Josh McCown	Jeff Hostetler
Jordan Ta'amu	Josh McCown	Jim Harbaugh	Colt McCoy	Matt Cassel	Jason Campbell
Trace McSorley	Jim Harbaugh	David Carr	Christian Ponder	Jeff Hostetler	Shaun King
Clayton Thorson	Kevin Kolb	Matt Cassel	Trent Edwards	Matt Hasselbeck	Brandon Weeden
Brett Rypien	Chad Henne	Austin Davis	Brad Johnson	Brandon Weeden	Matt Hasselbeck
Jarrett Stidham	Matt Cassel	Josh McCown	Colt McCoy	Byron Leftwich	Trent Edwards
Kyle Shurmur	Chris Simms	Matt Leinart	Bernie Kosar	Ken O'Brien	Steve Bono

As a bonus, I ran all of the draft Qbs through the model using only their 2018. This produced something that was maybe a bit optimistic. It absolutely loved Gardner Minshew. Many of you probably do not know Gardner Minshew because he is at the bottom of most draft boards. He's still above Jordan Ta'amu who still sucked with maybe the 2nd best WR corp in college football. However, Minshew had a monster senior season after a few years of being absolutely pedestrian. He would probably be a lot higher on draft boards, but if you look at his tape you'll notice his throwing mechanics are actually god awful and he has a wobbly wet noodle arm. That combined with he got the luxury of playing in an Air Raid offense his last year in college.

Using 2018 Season Stats

Stat Projections

Player	Cmp%	TD%	INT%	Yds/Att	Yds/Game	Rush Yds/Att	Rush Yds/Game	Rush Att/Game
Kyler Murray	57.76	4.53	2.97	6.85	193.1	5.26	25.16	4.57
Gardner Minshew	62.75	4.33	2.43	7.05	255.92	3.41	6.11	1.99
Drew Lock	59.46	3.99	2.54	6.63	216.2	3.46	9.65	2.52
Ryan Finley	60.91	3.8	3.04	6.8	209.69	2.85	4.12	1.68
Dwayne Haskins	59.11	3.8	2.81	6.59	212.04	3.35	10.	2.68
Tyree Jackson	56.03	3.72	3.05	6.25	177.12	3.04	9.01	2.39
Daniel Jones	58.27	3.52	2.53	6.4	173.24	4.39	13.26	2.99
Jordan Ta'amu	59.56	3.5	3.02	6.42	180.5	4.3	11.85	2.81
Jake Browning	60.34	3.47	3.08	6.65	177.61	3.95	8.78	2.38
Trace McSorley	56.34	3.23	2.03	6.08	136.81	4.83	19.35	3.68
Brett Rypien	59.51	3.21	2.65	6.41	186.28	3.41	8.17	2.43
Will Grier	56.89	3.09	3.33	6.15	172.49	2.01	4.28	1.88
Clayton Thorson	58.92	2.93	3.2	6.34	153.59	2.9	2.48	1.48
Kyle Shurmur	58.61	2.9	2.33	6.24	173.78	1.78	2.69	1.51
Jarrett Stidham	58.85	2.89	2.17	6.17	172.84	2.95	6.85	2.19

QB Comparisons

QB	Cmp 1	Cmp 2	Cmp 3	Cmp 4	Cmp 5
Kyler Murray	Randall Cunningham	Steve McNair	Doug Flutie	Donovan McNabb	David Garrard
Gardner Minshew	Matthew Stafford	Joe Montana*	Derek Carr	Warren Moon*	Brett Favre*
Drew Lock	Trevor Siemian	Case Keenum	Nick Foles	Joe Montana*	Jon Kitna
Ryan Finley	Troy Aikman*	Kyle Orton	Trevor Siemian	Jon Kitna	Matt Hasselbeck
Dwayne Haskins	Trevor Siemian	Jon Kitna	Byron Leftwich	Sam Darnold	Case Keenum
Tyree Jackson	Byron Leftwich	Tony Banks	Blaine Gabbert	Matt Cassel	Mark Sanchez
Daniel Jones	Jim Harbaugh	Jason Campbell	Josh McCown	Mark Brunell	Matt Cassel
Jordan Ta'amu	Josh McCown	Matt Cassel	Jason Campbell	Colt McCoy	David Carr
Jake Browning	Josh McCown	Matt Cassel	Trent Edwards	Tim Couch	Kevin Kolb
Trace McSorley	Johnny Manziel	Shaun King	Jim Harbaugh	Kordell Stewart	David Carr
Brett Rypien	Byron Leftwich	Brandon Weeden	Chad Henne	Matt Cassel	Brock Osweiler
Will Grier	Joey Harrington	Kerry Collins	Patrick Ramsey	Chad Henne	A.J. Feeley
Clayton Thorson	Brock Osweiler	Bernie Kosar	Ken O'Brien	Jim McMahon	Chad Henne
Kyle Shurmur	Neil O'Donnell	Bernie Kosar	Ken O'Brien	Brock Osweiler	Chad Henne
Jarrett Stidham	Brock Osweiler	Byron Leftwich	Chad Henne	Brandon Weeden	Ken O'Brien

Overall, I would say you should not make your draft grades based upon stats. You would probably draft Gardner Minshew hoping to get Matthew Stafford but then realize in camp that Minshew has the arm of 2015 playoffs Peyton Manning but actually still worse. And for what it's worth, I don't like Daniel Jones so my code must have somehow picked that up, because it kind of hates Daniel Jones too.
Please tell me where I might have gone wrong and also why you think Will Grier will actually be better than Joey Harrington.

All night last night Witten who isn't very vocal on monday night football took it upon himself all night to call out how bad our offense is and how long it takes for the playbook to open up. Now you have Troy Aikman telling the cowboys to blow it up and start over. Hall of famers are now attacking what you decided to string around for 8 years. On a night where Jerrys world was easily the loudest it's ever been you allowed a team to do absolutely nothing and pretty much end our season at the half way point. We have no first round pick to look forward to and are probably in the worst position i have ever seen the cowboys. Our 4-12 year was excusable because of all the injuries but outside of Frederick there is absolutely no reason why our team is in this position. You have a borderline elite defense who is still giving up under 20 points a game while being on the field all game every game. You drafted a RB over Ramsey who your team decided to only use 6 times in the second half in a game that went into halftime 14-14. How much longer do you think this fan base is going to pack your seats and buy your merchandise?

1989 first 5: Aikman, Manderich, B. Sanders, Thomas, D. Sanders.
2016 first 5: Goff, Wentz, Bosa, Elliot, Ramsey.
So I'm asking do you think the 2016 top 5 will have similar careers to the 89 first 5.

I’ve done a few posts on magic numbers for QBs that pretty much tell you who to avoid, no matter what. While these magic numbers don’t tell you who is going to be a good QB, these magic numbers do tell you who is going to be a bad one. A 68% completion percentage in college is good, but it might not translate to the NFL level. A 54% completion percentage, on the other hand, is almost guaranteed failure at the NFL level.
Last year, I made a post on why 58.5% is a magic number for QBs. If a QB completes 58.5% of their passes or worse, they’re likely going to be terrible in the NFL. Earlier this year, I made a post on why 7.3 YPA is a magic number for QBs. If a QB averages 7.3 yards per attempt or worse, they’re likely going to be terrible in the NFL. The sample sizes are large enough to back both of these up, especially in recent memory.
But what happens when you combine those numbers? If a QB falls below the 58.5% magic number AND falls below the 7.3 YPA magic number, how good will that QB be? Let’s find out.
Part I: The Formula
I went back a long time for this one. I looked at every NFL Draft since 1995, when the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars joined the league. As established in previous posts, the magic number I came up with is 58.5% and 7.3 YPA. If a QB is above at least one of these numbers, they are not on the list. If a QB is below both of these numbers, they are on this list, and in all likelihood, will not pan out.
I took a look at a few things when creating this list:

• If a QB got injured that season and didn’t have a large enough sample size, I don’t count that. The QB had to play at least a substantial portion of the season before getting hurt for it to count. For this list, this ended up not applying
  
• If a QB was a backup in college, it’s fair game. Doesn’t matter how many passes they threw- if they were a backup and didn’t get a whole lot of playing time, that’s fine. For this list, this ended up not applying
  
• I did not count any QBs playing at the FCS (I-AA) level or lower. Because I’m going all the way back to 1995, past a certain year, I was unable to find any stats on some of these QBs that did not play at the FBS/I-A level, simply because Sports Reference does not have
  
• If a player got drafted into the league as a QB but got converted after the fact (like BJ Daniels), they are on the list. If a player played QB in college but converted beforehand (like Matt Jones), they are not on the list
  
• I am including every draft class from 1995-on, including the most recent draft (2017). A lot of people asked in my last post how certain QBs from the 2017 draft did in terms of meeting the criteria, so I’m including them in this post. There are no supplemental draft inclusions.
  

So, with that being said, what QBs from 1995-on ended up fulfilling this criteria?
Part II: The Historic List
I am only counting the completion percentage and yards per attempt in that QB’s final season. And again, the QB has to meet both of these magic numbers in order to qualify.

Year of Draft	QB	College	Final Year Completion Percentage	Final Year Yards Per Attempt	Draft	Result
2017	CJ Beathard	Iowa	56.5%	6.4 YPA	R3, P104- San Francisco	Struggled massively in his rookie season, completing just 54.9% of his passes with a 69.2 passer rating and more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4)
2016	Christian Hackenberg	Penn State	53.5%	7.0 YPA	R2, P51- NY Jets	Has yet to throw a pass in the NFL. Likely will never throw a regular season pass for the Jets, especially after their recent trade up for a QB and their signings of Bridgewater and McCown
2015	Trevor Siemian	Northwestern	58.2%	5.6 YPA	R7, P250- Denver	Solid 2016 campaign, but struggled in 2017, throwing more interceptions (14) than touchdowns (12), which led to him being traded to Minnesota for almost nothing
2014	Logan Thomas	Virginia Tech	56.5%	7.2 YPA	R4, P120- Arizona	First NFL pass went for a touchdown. After that, he missed 8 straight passes, finishing his QB career going 1-for-9. Got released by the team that drafted him after just one season, and spent last season with Buffalo as a tight end.
2013	BJ Daniels	South Florida	56.9%	7.2 YPA	R7, P237- San Francisco	Never made the active roster with the 49ers, getting cut less than a month into the season. Spent time with the Houston Texans, where he went 1-for-2 with 7 yards, along with some playing as a wide receiver
2012	Ryan Lindley	San Diego State	53%	7.1 YPA	R6, P185- Arizona	Currently in the CFL after an abysmal NFL career. Finished his NFL career with 3 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and one of the worst rookie seasons for a QB of all-time (0 touchdowns and 7 interceptions)
2011	Jake Locker	Washington	55.4%	6.8 YPA	R1, P8- Tennessee	Threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2 out of 4 seasons. Completed just 57.5% of his passes at the NFL level, and never had a season with 200+ YPG
2011	Nathan Enderle	Idaho	56.7%	6.9 YPA	R5, P160- Chicago	Never threw a pass in his NFL career, and got cut by the Bears after just one season
2010	Jonathan Crompton	Tennessee	58.3%	7.3 YPA	R5, P168- San Diego	Never made the active roster, never threw a pass, and got cut by the Chargers in the preseason of his rookie season
2008	Chad Henne	Michigan	58.3%	7.0 YPA	R2, P57- Miami	Threw more interceptions (37) than touchdowns (31) in his career with the Dolphins. Spent 6 seasons as the backup for the Jaguars, where he lost a QB competition against Blaine Gabbert. Twice.
2008	Kevin O’Connell	San Diego State	58.5%	7.0 YPA	R3, P94- New England	Threw for 23 yards in his entire NFL career. Cut by the Patriots after just one season
2008	Matt Flynn	LSU	56.3%	6.7 YPA	R7, P209- Green Bay	Worked out as a backup QB for the Packers, including his memorable day at the end of the 2011 season against Detroit (480 yards, 6 touchdowns). As a starter, though… not so much
2007	Isaiah Stanback	Washington	53.4%	7.0 YPA	R4, P103- Dallas	Converted to WR, and never threw a pass in the NFL. As a receiver, he caught just 6 passes in his entire career
2004	Craig Krenzel	Ohio State	55%	7.3 YPA	R5, P148- Chicago	Threw more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (3) over his NFL career, and got cut by the Bears after two seasons. Finished his career with an abysmal passer rating of 52.5
2004	Cody Pickett	Washington	56.6%	6.7 YPA	R7, P217- San Francisco	Finished his NFL career with 195 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a passer rating of 16.4. Spiking the ball into the ground on every play would result in a better career passer rating than what Pickett had
2004	Casey Bramlet	Wyoming	56.7%	7.1 YPA	R7, P218- Cincinnati	Never played a down in the NFL, and got cut by the Bengals after just one season
2003	Kyle Boller	California	53.4%	6.7 YPA	R1, P19- Baltimore	I mentioned it in last year’s post, but it baffles me how a QB who had never completed more than 50% of his passes before his senior year got drafted (38.6% freshman year, 46.7% sophomore year, 49.3% junior year). Boller might be the biggest draft bust in franchise history, and he finished his NFL career with more interceptions than touchdowns
2003	Rex Grossman	Florida	57.1%	6.8 YPA	R1, P22- Chicago	Did make it to a Super Bowl as a starting QB, though he might be the worst QB to ever make it. Finished his career with more interceptions than touchdowns, and only once in his six seasons with the Bears did he have at least 200 yards per game. Aside from the 2006 season, he never started 50% of Chicago’s games in a single season
2003	Dave Ragone	Louisville	53.7%	6.5 YPA	R3, P88- Houston	Played in 2 games over his NFL career, where he threw for just 135 yards, completed 50% of his passes, didn’t throw a touchdown, threw 1 interception, lost both games, and had a passer rating of 47.4
2003	Seneca Wallace	Iowa State	55.1%	7.3 YPA	R4, P110- Seattle	Decent backup for a long time for Seattle, though he struggled in the win/loss column (6-16 record). Finished his career with 31 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Not starter material, but a more than serviceable backup for much of the second half of the 2000s
2003	Brian St. Pierre	Boston College	58.2%	7.3 YPA	R5, P163- Pittsburgh	Threw just one pass for the Steelers (incomplete). Ended up starting a game with Carolina all the way in 2010, where he threw 2 interceptions. Finished his career with a poor passer rating of 45.6, completing less than half (45.5%) of his passes
2003	Brooks Bollinger	Wisconsin	53.5%	7.2 YPA	R6, P200- NY Jets	As the starting QB of the Jets in 2005, went just 2-7. Finished his career with the Jets completing just 56.4% of his passes and with a 73.0 passer rating. Finished his NFL career with the same number of touchdowns (9) as interceptions
2003	Gibran Hamdan	Indiana	51.9%	7.2 YPA	R7, P232- Washington	The man threw 9 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his final season at Indiana; in his previous 2 seasons, he was 3-for-6. Somehow, Washington thought that was NFL worthy. Shocker- it didn’t work out. He finished his career with 7 yards, going 1-for-2
2002	Patrick Ramsey	Tulane	57.1%	6.6 YPA	R1, P32- Washington	Over his entire NFL career, had just 1 season with more than 2,000 yards (2003). Completed just 55.7% of his passes over his career with Washington, and only had one season where he started at least 50% of the games
2001	Quincy Carter	Georgia	49.7%	6.8 YPA	R2, P53- Dallas	Looking to find Troy Aikman’s successor, the Cowboys failed miserably with this draft pick. Drafting someone that completed less than half of his passes in his final season is usually a bad idea, as was the case here. Carter finished his career in Dallas with more interceptions (36) than touchdowns (29), and a pretty poor completion percentage of 56.2%. His passer rating in Dallas was just 70.
2001	Marques Tuiasosopo	Washington	52.6%	6.6 YPA	R2, P59- Oakland	Finished his career with just 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, never winning a game and compiling a passer rating of 48.1. Took him until the 2005 season to throw his first touchdown pass
2001	Sage Rosenfels	Iowa State	51.7%	6.9 YPA	R4, P109- Washington	I’m noticing a trend here with Washington drafting QBs in the early 2000s that fell below these magic numbers. In fact, Rosenfels never threw a pass with Washington, and was traded to Miami one year later for a seventh round pick. Didn’t necessarily have an awful NFL career, but he will forever be known for the Rosencopter
2001	Mike McMahon	Rutgers	49.7%	6.3 YPA	R5, P149- Detroit	If a QB completes less than 50% of his passes in his final 2 seasons, and in his final 2 seasons, throws for more interceptions (24) than touchdowns (23), apparently according to Detroit, you should draft him. It didn’t work out; his Lions’ career consisted of him completing just 43.8% of his passes, going 1-6, having a passer rating of 55, and throwing more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (10)
2001	AJ Feely	Oregon	38.5%	6.7 YPA	R5, P155- Philadelphia	It should be noted that Feely was a backup during his final season at Oregon. He most recently played in the NFL in 2011, but he finished his career with more interceptions (32) than touchdowns (28), and had a passer rating below 70
2001	Josh Booty	LSU	50%	7.3 YPA	R6, P172- Seattle	The Florida Marlins drafted him fifth overall in the 1994 MLB Draft, and offered him $1.6 million if he stopped playing football. He decided to play football. It didn’t work. He never played a down in the NFL
1999	Brock Huard	Washington	53.3%	6.1 YPA	R3, P77- Seattle	Never won a game in his NFL career, going 0-4. Completed just 55.8% of his passes in his time with Seattle, and finished his career with just 4 touchdown passes
1997	Wally Richardson	Penn State	52%	6.2 YPA	R7, P234- Baltimore	Threw for 1 yard in his entire NFL career, going 1-for-2 in the 1998 season with the Baltimore Ravens
1996	Spence Fischer	Duke	58.4%	6.1 YPA	R6, P203- Pittsburgh	Never appeared in a regular season game

Part III: The Analysis
Since the 1995 NFL Draft, there have been 33 quarterbacks that got drafted that fell below both of these magic numbers simultaneously. I was very surprised to see how few QBs from the late 90s fell below these numbers, especially when compared to the plethora of QBs in the early 2000s that fell below both of the numbers. However, of the 33 quarterbacks on the list, none of them turned out to be anything more than a backup. If I had to rank the quarterbacks, you’re looking at a top five, in no particular order, of Jake Locker, AJ Feely, Seneca Wallace, Matt Flynn, and Rex Grossman, with Trevor Siemian, Chad Henne, and Quincy Carter on the outside looking in. Any way you stack it, that’s bad.
But what about first round quarterbacks? Some might say it’s unfair to harshly judge those quarterbacks picked on the third day, so let’s just narrow it down to the first round quarterbacks. In that list, you’ve got Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, and Patrick Ramsey. All four of those picks were busts. Even before Locker’s career got riddled with injuries, he was never going to be anything more than a below average quarterback.
Let’s look at day two. In the second round, there have been four quarterbacks taken since 1995 to fall below these numbers. Three of them (Chad Henne, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo) finished their careers with more interceptions than touchdowns. The only one that hasn’t? Christian Hackenberg, who has yet to throw a pass and has been a massive bust for the Jets. And, in the third round, none of the four quarterbacks taken (CJ Beathard, Kevin O’Connell, Dave Ragone, Brock Huard) did anything in the NFL. Beathard is the only one of those four QBs to start and win a game.
In fact, let’s take it back a bit further. When you draft a QB in the first three rounds, most of the time, you expect that QB to be a starter, or at the very least, be pushing someone for the starting job. Unless you’ve got an aging QB approaching retirement, you don’t draft a QB that high if you’re not going to intend on playing him. So, with that being said, let’s look at every QB taken in the first three rounds of the draft since 1984, and see how they fared in the NFL. If anything from round 4-on is just an educated guess, then let’s narrow it down to the top three rounds where there were actual expectations. Note that I am not including the supplemental draft; for that reason, Dave Brown of the NY Giants does not make the list (although his career was pretty poor, with more interceptions (58) than touchdowns (44)).

Year of Draft	QB	College	Final Year Completion Percentage	Final Year Yards Per Attempt	Draft	Result
1993	Billy Joe Hobert	Washington	52.2%	5.3 YPA	R3, P58- LA Raiders	Never won a game with the Raiders, going 0-5. Finished his career with more interceptions (25) than touchdowns (23)
1992	David Klingler	Houston	55.9%	6.8 YPA	R1, P6- Cincinnati	One of the biggest busts in the history of the Cincinnati Bengals. Finished his career with a 4-20 record, throwing 16 touchdowns and 22 interceptions, and never throwing for more than 2,000 yards in any season
1991	Brett Favre	Southern Miss	54.5%	5.7 YPA	R2, P33- Atlanta	This is an interesting one to judge. On one hand, Favre was a massive bust for the Falcons. He finished his career with Atlanta going 0-for-4 with 2 interceptions and a passer rating of 0.0. He was atrocious with the Falcons, and was a bust. On the other hand, when he went to Green Bay, he set the then-touchdowns record and became a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. So depending on your parameters, either this trend continues, or the trend ends here. If we’re judging based on what they did with their team, then yes, Favre is a bust. If we’re judging based on their entire career, then obviously, this breaks the trend. You place the goalposts however you wish with this one. Personally, even though Reggie Nelson became a great safety in the first half of the 2010s, I consider him a bust, since he was garbage with the Jaguars and didn’t know how to tackle or cover. Chalk this one up as a question mark
1988	Tom Tupa	Ohio State	55.4%	7.4 YPA	R3, P68- Phoenix	This is another interesting one to judge. As a QB, he was atrocious; he finished his career with 12 touchdowns and 25 interceptions, and in his time with the Phoenix Cardinals, threw just 9 touchdowns and 22 interceptions, with a 59.5 passer rating. However, as a punter, he was pretty good, lasting until 2004, and even making the Pro Bowl in 1999. With Phoenix, though, he was used primarily as a quarterback (he only punted 6 times), so he was a massive bust for the Cardinals
1988	Chris Chandler	Washington	51.4%	7.0 YPA	R3, P76- Indianapolis	These technicalities are getting a bit ridiculous. With the Colts, he was a bust. He had a passer rating of just 66.2, threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (10), and completed only 53.7% of his passes, including the 1989 season where he completed just 48.8% of his passes. However, he turned it around in Atlanta, making it to two Pro Bowls, and even leading the Falcons to their first Super Bowl in the 1998 season against the Denver Broncos. Much like Favre, this is about where you’re setting the goalposts- over their entire career, or over what they did for their original team
1987	Kelly Stouffer	Colorado State	54.8%	7.0 YPA	R1, P6- St. Louis Cardinals	Finally, a QB where there’s no debate on whether or not he busted. He refused to sign with the Cardinals, then played with the Seattle Seahawks, where he threw just 7 touchdowns and 19 interceptions, finishing his career with an abysmal 54.5 passer rating

So if we just include the first three rounds and go all the way back to 1984, we have 6 (or 7) additional quarterbacks, depending on whether or not you include the supplemental draft. Since 1984, there have been 18 (or 19) quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds of the draft falling below both of these numbers. Of these quarterbacks, there are 16 undeniable busts, two quarterbacks (Favre & Chandler) that were completely useless for their original team and then went onto have successful careers with other teams (Favre with the Packers, Chandler with the Falcons), and one that was really bad as a QB but turned out to have a pretty successful and accomplished career as a punter (Tupa). Not exactly a good track record. Drafting a QB really early that falls below both of these numbers is the equivalent of trying to go against nearly 35 years of history.
Part IV: Who to Avoid
With all of that being said, what QBs in this year’s draft at the FBS level fell below both of these numbers, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt or less AND having a completion percentage of 58.5% or worse? Draft Breakdown has a list of 66 quarterbacks in this year’s draft, so I took a look at every single one of them to play at the FBS level and looked at their stats from this past season. Spoiler alert: there’s a pretty big name on the list.

QB	School	Completion Percentage	Yards Per Attempt
Josh Allen	Wyoming	56.3%	6.7 YPA
Kurt Benkert	Virginia	58.5%	6.3 YPA
Kyle Bolin	Rutgers	54.9%	5.3 YPA
Brandon Harris	North Carolina	49.3%	4.9 YPA
John O’Korn	Michigan	53.5%	6.2 YPA
Richard Lagow	Indiana	58.3%	6.6 YPA
Tanner Lee	Nebraska	57.5%	7.3 YPA
Anu Solomon	Baylor	43.6%	7.3 YPA
Thomas Woodson	Akron	57.2%	6.4 YPA

NOTE 1: Parker Boehme of Duke fell below both of these numbers (50%, 3 YPA), but he went 1-for-2 for 6 yards. The sample size was so small that it doesn’t count; however, he’s not getting drafted
NOTE 2: Brice Ramsey of Georgia fell below both of these numbers (25%, 2.5 YPA), but he went 1-for-4 for 10 yards. The sample size was so small that it doesn’t count; however, he’s not getting drafted
Part V: Conclusion
Falling below one of these magic numbers is a problem. Falling below both of these magic numbers is almost a guaranteed failure rate, at least at the starter level. If you’re banking on a QB to be a successful starter, then pick anyone (literally anyone) that is above at least one of these numbers. If you’re picking said QB high in the draft, then you’re going against a lengthy and extensive history of failure. Every QB drafted since 1995 that fell below these magic numbers has not made it as a starter, and every QB drafted in the first three rounds since 1984 that fell below these numbers either didn’t make it as a starter, only had success when leaving the team that originally drafted him, or converted to punter
TL;DR: Don’t draft QBs who fall below the 58.5% and the 7.3 YPA magic number. In recent history, it has literally never worked out.

I'm a little emotionally charged so I'll try to keep that to a minimum, but I'm trying really hard to understand this... I'll start by saying I'm not a Jaguars fan, I am a Leonard Fournette fan. This has caused me to watch more Jags games this year than I ever have and I can confidently say that I think Fournette is one of the main reasons your offense has taken the jump it has even though he's just a rookie.
I understand the thought process of Marrone benching him for the game. What I DON'T understand is how he can get away without informing people why he did it. I know all of you guys know how much shit that would've caused if you would've lost, but since you won I guess it's all okay?
There's a story of Jimmy Johnson cutting a non starter for sleeping in a team meeting. When asked what he would've done if it would've been Troy Aikman sleeping, he responded, "I would've walked over to him, tapped him on the shoulder, and quietly said 'Troy, wake up.'" Not that Fournette is at Aikman status, but he might be your most valuable player on offense already.
On top of all of that, Fournette has had no behavioral issues. Ever. Reading comments in NFL, you'd think he is a thug now and it's directly related to the confusion of not knowing why he got benched... I think players deserve that with the way the media is these days.
All in all, I'm glad you guys won, because this sub would be more hate-filled today instead of Ramsey/Green memes.

On Sundays during the offseason, I have Lost Leagues, a series about football leagues that failed. But I want to run other series alongside that. That leads me to this series, which I'll call "Record Watch."
The premise is simple- any records that could realistically be broken in 2017 are in this post. I'm not talking about single-season records, but rather, career records. Each post will be divided up into 2 parts. The first part will be NFL records and climbing up the league-wide ranks. The second part will be team-specific records and climbing up the team-wide ranks.
Each week, I'll focus on a different stat. Today, it's all about passing yards, both on the league-wide level and the team specific level.
Part I: NFL Records

• Eli Manning currently sits in 8th place on the all-time passing yards list (48,218). He needs 1,108 yards to pass Warren Moon and take 7th place on the list (49,325). He needs 1,782 yards to become just the 7th quarterback in NFL history to reach 50,000 career passing yards, and needs 3,258 yards to pass John Elway and take 6th place on the all-time list (51,475)
  
• Ben Roethlisberger currently sits in 10th place on the all-time passing yards list (46,814). He needs just 190 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton and take 9th place on the list (47,003). He needs 2,512 to pass Warren Moon, 3,186 yards to reach the 50,000 career passing yards mark, and needs 4,662 yards to pass John Elway on the all-time list. While unlikely, it’s not impossible; in 2014, Roethlisberger threw for 4,952 yards, however this was the only time he ever threw more than 4,500 yards in a season.
  
• Philip Rivers currently sits in 12th place on the all-time passing yards list (45,833). He needs 401 yards to pass Vinny Testaverde and take 11th place on the list (46,233), needs 1,171 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton on the list, needs 3,493 yards to pass Warren Moon, and needs 4,167 yards to reach the 50,000 career passing yards mark
  
• Carson Palmer currently sits in 14th place on the all-time passing yards list (44,269). He needs 343 yards to pass Drew Bledsoe and take 13th place on the list (44,611), needs 1,965 yards to pass Vinny Testaverde, needs 2,735 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton, and needs 5,057 yards to pass Warren Moon. Palmer has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 4 of the last 5 seasons, but has never thrown more than 4,700 yards in a season, so the odds that he reaches Moon this year are unlikely
  
• Very quietly, Matt Ryan is climbing up lists. He’s currently 21st on the all-time passing yards list (37,701). He needs just 220 yards to pass Boomer Esiason and reach the top 20 (37,920). That’s not the only attainable mark for him. He needs 447 yards to pass Dave Krieg for 19th place (38,147), and needs 2,299 yards to become the 19th quarterback in NFL history to throw for 40,000 yards. Once he reaches that, he needs 2,539 yards to pass Johnny Unitas for 18th place (40,239), 2,851 yards to pass Joe Montana for 17th place (40,551), and 3,222 yards to pass Kerry Collins for 16th place (40,922). Not out of the realm of possibility: a 5,440-yard season would pass Dan Fouts and would have Ryan enter the top 15 all-time in passing yards (43,040). Ryan has thrown for at least 4,500 yards in every season since 2012.
  
• Aaron Rodgers currently sits in 23rd place on the all-time passing yards list (36,827). He needs 450 yards to pass Donovan McNabb for 22nd place (37,276). From there, he needs 1,094 yards to pass Boomer Esiason on the list, 1,321 yards to pass Dave Krieg, and 3,173 yards to reach the 40,000-yard mark. Rodgers needs 3,413 yards to pass Johnny Unitas, 3,725 yards to pass Joe Montana, and 4,096 yards to pass Kerry Collins.
  
• Joe Flacco currently sits in 36th place on the all-time passing yards list (32,639). By the end of the season, he has a chance to enter the top 25 all-time. Jim Kelly currently sits in 25th place (35,467). Flacco needs to throw just 2,829 yards to enter the top-25. Realistically, he could be in 24th place by the time the season ends, as a 4,000-yard season will put him in 24th place all-time, surpassing Matt Hasselbeck (36,638). In terms of the other QBs he could pass along the way:
  

Place	Yards Needed to Surpass	Surpassing
35	200	Ken Anderson (32,838)
34	304	Troy Aikman (32,942)
33	432	Y.A. Tittle (33,070)
32	486	Steve Young (33,124)
31	824	Phil Simms (33,462)
30	865	John Hadl (33,503)
29	1,545	Tony Romo (34,183)
28	1,603	Steve DeBerg (34,241)
27	2,062	Jim Hart (34,664)
26	2,199	Jim Everett (34,837)

• Alex Smith is 2,155 yards away from reaching 30,000 career passing yards. This would make him one of just 45 quarterbacks in league history to reach this mark
  
• As it stands, there are 71 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 25,000 passing yards. By the end of the season, there could be 73, as Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are approaching that mark. Dalton is 2,786 yards away from reaching the 25,000 milestone (currently sits at 22,214), while Newton is 3,228 yards away (currently sits at 21,772)
  
• There are 106 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 20,000 passing yards. Andrew Luck (19,078) is 922 yards away from reaching that milestone, while Ryan Tannehill (18,455) is 1,545 yards away, and Russell Wilson (18,193) is 1,807 yards away. Those are the QBs from the 2012 class about to reach the 20,000-mark; however, there’s one more that will likely do it in 2017, and that is Sam Bradford. He currently sits at 18,667 yards, needing 1,333 yards to reach the 20,000-yard mark
  
• There are 142 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 15,000 passing yards. Josh McCown might reach that depending on who starts in the Jets QB carousel. He currently sits at 14,242 yards, and needs 758 yards to reach the 15,000-yard mark. Kirk Cousins (12,113) needs 2,887 yards to reach that, while Blake Bortles (11,241) needs 3,759 yards, and Derek Carr (11,194) needs 3,806 yards. If Kaepernick makes his way onto a roster, he needs 2,729 yards to do it (12,271)
  

Part II: Team-Specific Records

• In Buffalo, Tyrod Taylor is one of 9 quarterbacks in franchise history with at least 6,000 passing yards (6,058). He needs 154 yards to pass JP Losman and take 8th place on the list (6,211), and needs 229 yards to pass Dennis Shaw and take 7th place (6,286). That could be accomplished by week 1. Later on in the season, he needs 1,525 yards to pass Doug Flutie and take 6th place (7,582), and needs 4,094 yards to pass Drew Bledsoe and take 5th place (10,151). Taylor has never thrown for more than 3,100 yards in a season, so while this is unlikely, he should have at least 6th place by the end of the season
  
• While Deshaun Watson will likely be the starter in Houston, Tom Savage (588 yards) is just 295 yards away from entering the top 10 in franchise history, passing Tony Banks (882). For Watson, if he throws for 2,958 yards, he will already be the fourth greatest quarterback by yardage in franchise history, only behind Schaub, Carr, and Rosenfels.
  
• Blake Bortles needs 4,763 yards to take 2nd place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Jaguars. He currently sits in 3rd at 11,241 yards, while David Garrard sits in 2nd place at 16,003 yards. While this is unlikely (Bortles’ record is 4,428 yards, set back in 2015), he does already own the franchise record for most passing yards in a season
  
• Marcus Mariota currently sits in 7th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Titans (6,244), and is one of 7 quarterbacks to throw for at least 6,000 yards. By the end of the season, he’s likely going to be in the top 5. He needs 561 yards to pass Kerry Collins for 6th on the list (6,804), and needs 1,855 yards to pass Vince Young for 5th on the list (8,098). However, he still has a long way to go to reach 4th place; Dan Pastorini threw for 16,864 yards when he played for the Oilers from 1971-79
  
• It’s not attainable this year, but if it eventually happens, it might be one of my favorite stats of all-time. Joe Flacco currently has 32,639 passing yards, which is, by far, the most in franchise history for the Ravens (second place is Kyle Boller at 7,846). Every other QB in Ravens’ history has combined for 41,859 passing yards. By the time Flacco’s career is done, even if the stat is short-lived, he could have more passing yards than every other QB in franchise history combined
  
• Andy Dalton currently sits in 4th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Bengals (22,214). He needs just 481 yards to surpass Carson Palmer (22,694) and take 3rd place on the franchise history list, and needs 4,936 yards to pass Boomer Esiason (27,149) and take 2nd place on the franchise history list, which would only sit behind Ken Anderson. Don’t count on that, though- the most yards Dalton has thrown for in a season was 4,293 back in 2013, so the odds that he takes 2nd place this year are unlikely.
  
• Trevor Siemian currently sits in 14th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Broncos (3,401). By the time the season is done, he could be in 8th place already after just two seasons as the starter. Ahead of him:
  

Place	Yards Needed to Surpass	Surpassing
13	207	Mickey Slaughter (3,607)
12	417	Steve DeBerg (3,819)
11	1,753	Steve Tensi (5,153)
10	3,037	Steve Ramsey (6,437)
9	3,838	Charley Johnson (7,238)
8	4,276	Frank Tripucka (7,676)

• Alex Smith currently sits in 4th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Chiefs (13,566). He needs 3,712 yards to pass Bill Kenney (17,277) for 3rd place on the franchise history list.
  
• Derek Carr currently sits in 7th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Raiders (11,194). He’s got a real chance to move up the leaderboards this season. He needs 442 yards to pass Tom Flores (11,635) for 6th place, needs 567 yards to pass Marc Wilson (11,760) for 5th place, needs 1,472 yards to pass Jim Plunkett (12,665) for 4th place, and in a bit of a longshot, needs 5,462 yards to pass Daryle Lamonica (16,655) for 3rd place. However, the record in franchise history, held by Ken Stabler, is just 19,078 yards, so in terms of yardage, there’s a real chance that by 2018, Carr is the best quarterback in franchise history
  
• Dak Prescott currently sits in 11th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Cowboys (3,667). He needs just 1,137 yards to enter the top 10 and pass Drew Bledsoe (4,803) for 10th place. Prescott needs 1,665 yards to pass Eddie LeBaron (5,331) for 9th place, 2,173 yards to pass Quincy Carter (5,839) for 8th place, and 2,889 yards to pass Steve Pelluer (6,555) for 7th place.
  
• Carson Wentz threw for 3,782 yards for Philadelphia last season. This year, he’s got a real chance to enter the top 10 in franchise history on the passing yards list. He needs 3,430 yards to do it and pass Roman Gabriel (7,221) for 10th place all-time in franchise history. He needs 3,716 yards to pass Norm Van Brocklin (7,497) for 9th place, and needs 4,343 yards to pass Bobby Thomason (8,124) for 8th place
  
• By the end of the season, Kirk Cousins has a chance to be one of the four greatest quarterbacks by yards in Washington history. He currently sits in 6th place (12,113) on the list, and needs 240 yards to pass Billy Kilmer (12,352) for 5th place and enter the top 5. Mark Rypien is in striking distance this season; Cousins needs 3,816 yards to pass Rypien (15,928) and take 4th place on the all-time list in franchise history
  
• Three of the four quarterbacks in the NFC South already lead their teams in all-time passing yards. Jameis Winston is the only one who does not, but he’s climbing up the leaderboard. He sits in 7th place right now (8,132) in Bucs history, and needs 1,308 yards to pass Steve DeBerg (9,439) and take 6th place on the all-time list. By throwing for 1,868 yards, Winston will become the 6th quarterback in franchise history to throw for 10,000 yards in his career with the team. Winston needs 2,809 yards to pass Brad Johnson (10,940) for 5th place on the list, needs 4,517 yards to pass Doug Williams (12,648) for 4th place, and needs 4,838 yards to pass Trent Dilfer (12,969) for 3rd place. While he should definitely enter the top 5 this season, by the time his rookie contract is up, he might be the best quarterback in franchise history. The record is 14,820 yards, held by Vinny Testaverde when he played from 1987-1992. There’s no reason why Winston can’t surpass that number by the end of 2018.
  
• It won’t be easy for Trubisky to replace Jay Cutler in Chicago. Despite a rather controversial tenure with the Bears, Cutler leaves Chicago as the all-time leader in passing yards (23,443). Quite frankly, it’s not even close- the next best in terms of yards was Sid Luckman, who was 8,757 yards behind him at 14,686 yards.
  
• Matthew Stafford is already the all-time leader in yards in Detroit (30,303). However, if he gets 1,117 yards this season, then he will have doubled second place. Second place right now is Bobby Layne, who threw for 15,710 yards. If Stafford throws for 1,117 yards, then he will have double the number of passing yards as second place in franchise history. Keep in mind that the Lions have been around since 1929, when they were known as the Portsmouth Spartans
  
• If Bradford starts the full season this year for the Vikings, he’s got a chance to climb all the way up to 7th place in franchise history on the leaderboard. He currently sits in 14th place right now at 3,877 yards. To reach the top 10, he needs 2,274 yards to pass the injured Teddy Bridgewater (6,150). After that, he needs 2,581 yards to pass Rich Gannon (6,457) for 9th place, needs 2,782 yards to pass Christian Ponder (6,658) for 8th place, and needs 2,835 yards to pass Brett Favre (6,711) for 7th place
  
• Carson Palmer is currently in 6th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Cardinals (14,804). He needs just 125 yards to pass Charley Johnson (14,928) and reach the top 5. Palmer needs 1,040 yards to pass Kurt Warner (15,843) for 4th place, and needs 2,819 yards to pass Jake Plummer (17,622) for 3rd place. If he’s in 3rd place, then only two quarterbacks would be ahead of him- Jim Hart and Neil Lomax
  
• And finally, Russell Wilson is currently in 4th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Seahawks (18,193). He needs 1,807 yards to become just the fourth quarterback in franchise history to reach the 20,000-yard mark; he’s already one of just 4 quarterbacks to reach the 10,000-yard mark for the Seahawks. Wilson needs 1,930 yards to pass Jim Zorn (20,122) for 3rd place.
  

I compiled 18 professional and final (i.e. done within the past day or two) mock drafts from professionals to get some idea of the consensus view of the draft, then applied my own spin. Here's what I think will happen along with the consensus amongst the pros plus my logic:

1. LA Rams: Jared Goff (obvious)
2. Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz (obvious)
3. San Diego (Super) Chargers: Laremy Tunsil or Ronnie Stanley. A LT is the consensus here - 10 of 18 mocks have Tunsil or Stanley. Late word is Stanley, but as you'll see below, I don't think it matters. This could be a spot for a trade by a team that's around the middle of the first round and is scared they'll miss out on a tackle. Either way, whoever it is, it's going to be one of these two left tackles.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey. This is a consensus pick - 10 of the 18 mocks had him here. Joey Bosa fills a need, there's going to be some sentiment for Ezekiel Elliott to try and re-create the glory years of Aikman/Emmit/Irvin, but the sane folks have clearly taken over in Dallas. They stick to their board and get the #1 guy on it.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Joey Bosa. Another consensus pick - 7 of 18 mocks have Bosa here. That's not overwhelming, but it makes sense to me. Even with Dante Fowler healthy, the Jags need help rushing the passer, and Bosa's a very good and safe pick.
6. Baltimore Ravens: Ronnie Stanley/Laremy Tunsil (whoever doesn't go at #3). Another consensus pick - 10 of 18 mocks have one of those two here. Ozzie Newsome knows value, and a starting LT is a clear value pick here. This could also be a spot for someone in the middle of the first to trade up to get one of the guys who's a certain future LT.
7. San Francisco 49ers: DeForest Buckner. Not a lot of consensus here. 6 mocks had either Tunsil or Stanley, who I think will be gone. There was some sentiment for Myles Jack, but I think his injury concerns will push him down. That leaves DeForest Buckner, who was picked here by 6 of 18 mocks. I could see SF trading out of this pick because there's not going to be someone they're in love with, and there are going to be teams scared of an offensive tackle run, but if they stay here, Buckner's the pick.
8. Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin. There's no way Cleveland stays at #8. No consensus whatsoever amongst the mocks, and we know the Browns are in full-on Sam Hinkie mode. We know the Titans want to get a LT. The Browns will gladly take any offer close to reasonable to move out. Another candidate to trade up here is the Giants. Word is they're looking for a offensive tackle at #10 and they're going to be scared at what might be left.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves. A consensus pick - 7 of 18 mocks have Hargreaves here. It feels right. When there are several guys you like here, why not go with the Gator?
10. New York Giants: Taylor Decker. This is going to be a controversial one. Many mocks have Myles Jack or Leonard Floyd here. There's just so much smoke out there about the Giants targeting a LT that I feel like yet again they're going to panic and draft the highest on their board, even if it's a little bit of an overdraft. I don't think this pick makes sense, but it's what I see happening.
11. Chicago Bears: Ezekiel Elliott. This is more of a feel pick. I believe Elliott when he says the Bears love him. That to me is more reliable than a journalist's information because clubs are more careful with the information they give to reporters than the impression they give to players they bring in to visit.
12. New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Rankins. A clear consensus pick - 8 of 17 mocks have him here.
13. Miami Dolphins: Leonard Floyd. Another feel pick. A lot of folks have Hargreaves here, but he's gone, as is Elliott, another popular choice. Floyd has late upward momentum.
14. Oakland Raiders: William Jackson III. Another consensus pick. 6 of 18 mocks have him here. Makes sense to me.
15. Cleveland Browns: Myles Jack. This just makes sense to me with the Browns following the Hinkie model. They've already traded down twice and accumulated picks. This is a chance to get a top of the first round guy here and potentially great value. Jack = Joel Embiid.
16. Detroit Lions: Jarran Reed. A consensus pick - 9 of 18 mocks have them taking a DL, and 4 think it will be Reed.
17. Atlanta Falcons: Darron Lee. A consensus pick - 8 of 18 mocks have him here. That's a lot for pick #17.
18. Indianapolis Colts: Ryan Kelly. 4 of 18 mocks have him here, but 11 of 18 have an offensive lineman, no one else makes as much sense here, and the late Kelly to the Colts rumors are louder and louder. Protect Luck.
19. Buffalo Bills: Shaq Lawson. Part consensus, part feel. 5 of 18 mocks have him here. 13 of 18 have a pass rusher. Some say Nkemdiche. That doesn't feel right to me when there are guys with less baggage that are valued similarly.
20. New York Jets: Eli Apple. Lots of Paxton Lynch talk here. I don't buy it at all. This is a good team. They'll re-sign Fitzpatrick eventually. They can wait for the QB of the future in a later round or next year. Aside from guys already gone in my mock, the consensus was a CB, and Apple was the one mentioned most frequently.
21. Washington Redskins: A'Shawn Robinson. 11 of 18 mocks have them taking a DT. McCloughan loves big school guys. Thus, Robinson.
22. Houston Texans: Corey Coleman. Overwhelming consensus it's a WR - 16 of 18 mocks have one. Coleman and Doctson both were on 6 mocks. I'll take Coleman due to the Baylor connection.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Laquon Treadwell. Clear consensus here - 10 of 18 have Treadwell. 24. Cincinnati Bengals: Josh Doctson. 13 of 18 mocks have a WR. Will Fuller's a possibility, but Doctson feels like the more logical pick.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mackenzie Alexander. Overwhelming consensus - 17 of 18 mocks have a DB here. There's some sentiment for Karl Joseph, but I think the Steelers will go for a CB.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Robert Nkemdiche. This is a feel pick more than anything. Not a whole lot of consensus - some for OL help, some for DL help - so I went with my gut. If there's a team that can harness Nkemdiche's natural talent and convert it into its full potential, this seems like it. Strong locker room, a coach that can reach him rather than distance him, and a city that's far away from basically anyone around him who's not a great influence. It just feels like in a few years he's going to be an all-pro and everyone's going to be saying "how did the Seahawks get another defensive terror?".
26. Green Bay Packers: Andrew Billings. Consensus for a DT here - 11 of 18 mocks. Too much upside for the Packers to pass on him.
27. Kansas City Chiefs: Reggie Ragland. Not much consensus here, but 3 mocks have Ragland here, and it seems like the right time for him to go.
28. Arizona Cardinals: TJ Green. The mocks are all over the map. This one seemed the most logical of any that received multiple mentions.
29. Carolina Panthers: Noah Spence. There was a ton of consensus for Kevin Dodd, and he does make a lot of sense, but I'm going with a feeling here that Carolina's going with a guy they think had the talent to go much higher and is a better pass rusher than Dodd. There are some character concerns, but I think Carolina's going to look at Spence and conclude he's matured since his troubles and is a great value here.
30. Denver Broncos: Connor Cook. This one just feels right. They've got a great team minus a QB. Cook is very NFL-ready according to most. Paxton Lynch, nope - they want someone who can start day 1.

Guys who someone will pick early in round 2:
Paxton Lynch: guessing the Browns scoop him up. Kevin Dodd: someone who needs a pass rusher will get him early. Will Fuller: he could easily go earlier. Most teams could use a blazer over the top. This feels like a guy someone will trade up to get. Chris Jones: someone with a DT need will target him. Karl Joseph

It seems from reports that at #3 the Cowboys will either go Ramsey or Zeke, or trade back a bit.
At first my strong preference was for Ramsey. He just looks like he could be the best free safety in the league in 5 years. But...we already have that potential in Byron Jones, so the team could have him bulk up and try to be a new kind of ballhawk/big hitter strong safety. But based on what the Cowboys are saying, they want him as a cornerback. Will he be the best cornerback in the league in 5 years? A cornerback that high needs to have the ability to shut down an entire side of the field. That's much harder. What's more, the Cowboys have great cost/performance there with Scandrick, Claiborne (only the most recent of 1st round DBs that haven't lived up to their potential), and Carr. The Cowboys defensive backfield is not a complete mess for the first time in years. Yeah, you don't draft for need, but it might be Ramsey who is the real luxury...
And then there's Zeke. Yeah, running backs usually have short lifespans. Yeah, you don't want to pay that much for a rookie RB. Yeah, there is a lot of RB talent available next year. Yeah, we already have Morris and McFadden and Dunbar and anyone, even Troy Hambrick could run for 1000 yards behind that line (I'm kidding. Troy Hambrick humbled himself and actually had a good season for us in 2003).
That being said...
The kid is 20. He's an RGK. He can do everything: run, receive, block. He can probably even skate. Watch him run. He has a combination of vision, balance, speed that is unique.
Put him behind that line and it's just hard to imagine what he could do. It really is. His talent + that line's talent. I just don't even want to say what could be possible, because it's silly, but he could break records. Really. That's not absurd to think.
He's 20. That means we get an entire rookie contract out of him with the core of the line and Romo and Dez and Wiiten around. At that point, he'll be 24, maybe have minimal wear and tear because of the line, how he plays, and vets like McFadden and Morris to share the load. Oddly, because runningbacks are so undervalued and becuase of home town discount, he might actually be relatively cheap to sign. And if you have a franchise running back and line to rely on, that makes finding the right QB that can do everything (like Romo), much easier....
Why do you not want that? It's back to how the Cowboys used to win. Emmitt was not the greatest running back ever. He was however, one of the best, and with that line...well, we all know what happened. Romo broke all of Aikman's records. Why? Not becuase Troy wasn't one of the best, but becuase the Cowboys didn't rely on him to make every. single. play. like they've had to with Romo. Romo's just that good. Aikman would have been Andrew Luck in the modern game. They just didn't play that way then. What did Troy always have though? Incredible efficiency. He had that because good play action is the bread and butter of every great offense. It's incredibly hard when you've got to defend against a star QB, wide receiver, tight end, and runningback. Am I talking about the 1995, 2014, or 2016 Cowboys?
So...Zeke?
But what about defense? Don't we have to do something when Hardy is gone and Gregory and D-Law are getting in trouble for smoking pot? A safety doesn't solve that problem directly anyway. What about Bosa? Do you really want another young supposed partier on that line? When those guys do get back and start playing (and you want them to play to develop), where does Bosa go? We've actually already added a huge amount of help in Thornton on the line, so it's not like this defensive line has just fallen to tatters. We still have young guys like David Irving and Crawford that are Rod's guys now. Gregory and Lawrence still can be stars. Give them time. If anyone knows a thing or two about defensive lines in the NFL, it's Rod Marinelli, and oddly enough, he's supposdely one of the biggest fans of drafting Zeke. Huh. Maybe he knows that a strong running game fits his defensive schemes best. Nah, some random draft guru probably knows more than him. Yeah, that was an appeal to authority.
But we can still upgrade this defense with first round talent. We got Jones at 27 last year. Interestingly, later in the first round, Karl Joseph, the hard hitting safety from WVU is supposed to be available. Go check out Bob Sturm's piece on him. He's a vicous hitter, he flies around the field. He's a guy that will take risks for the big play. That sounds like turnovers to me. Something this defense needs. Something Ramsey did not get at FSU (maybe because teams weren't throwing at him), but still. A great CB can shut down one side of the field, but a great safety can be...anywhere. That's a wildcard. Put Karl Joseph at strong safety and Jones at free safety. Very complimentary play styles. Give Morris the chance to develop. He wants to be the best. Sometimes CBs do take time. Josh Norman just had his best year in his late 20s. Carr and Scandrick especially can be serviceable vets for several more years.
What do you think?

Navigating the post Aikman era was dreadful, having 8 different starting QB's from 2001 to 2005 is something I never want to see this franchise go through again.
Finding an un-drafted free agent in Tony Romo was a gift from the gods. However, this is not something fans and the FO can expect to happen again. I believe this is one of the main reasons so many among cowboy nation and talk radio want a QB drafted with the 4th overall pick this year.
I for one am very hesitant about that choice and here is why:

1. Like all things in the draft finding a quality player can be hit or miss. Finding a quality QB puts even greater risk and chance of picking the wrong guy.
2. The current build of the team. This team has been built with Tony Romo in mind and the term Romo friendly was coined 2 seasons ago if my memory serves me correctly. 3 first round draft picks have been placed on our offensive line and have done a remarkable job. One un-drafted free agent in Colins who was projected to be first round talent. Adequate running backs. The always reliable Jason written. The dynamic Dez Bryant. On the opposite side of the ball we have Sean Lee, a player who can make big plays when healthy and a tone setter in McClain. No pass rush and serviceable cornerbacks but no turn overs. Byron Jones has some major upside as a free safety and has proven to handle tight end coverage.

2014 was a template for success, our running game was on point with Murray getting the tough yards and giving favorable second and third down situations. Opposing teams had to choose between double covering Bryant, Witten, or stopping the run giving Romo multiple options. The running game allowed us to control the clock and keep our defense off the field and tire down the opposing defense. The Cowboys were truly a playoff contending team, but with no pass rush the super bowl could never be ours.
Jerry believes Romo has 4 to 5 years left in the tank, and the 4th pick in the draft will be used with that concept in mind. I believe that is the correct mind set. However that greatly depends on the direction they take in the draft.
On to the draft, to navigate the current and post Romo era is actually one in the same.

1. Improve the defense! We need pass rush and we greatly needed it last year. Our pass rush was so bad we let a disruptive player in Greg Hardy keep playing when he probably should of been benched, suspended or even cut due to his actions on the sidelines and lock room as well as Valley Ranch. Now Randy Gergory will miss 4 games and with another failed test will result in an entire year. Lawrence has been effective at times.
   
2. Linebackers: Sean Lee has to be viewed as pretty much not apart of the team due to the amount of time missed over his career due to injury. McClain was given another one year deal, and that doesn't show a lot of faith in a guy.
   
3. Defensive backs: Carr is overpaid. Morris Claiborne needs to stay healthy and show that he is worth the 6th pick. Orlando Scandrick is coming off of a serious knee injury. Bryan Jones was a pleasant surprise and I can't wait to see more from him. Barry church has been serviceable.
   

The FO has already built a solid offensive line that only needs to be upgraded on the right tackle position. I look forward to seeing the combination of DMC and Morris and hopefully Dunbar can get back and be healthy and show that electricity we saw in the first few games last year. They are good backs behind a great line and that allows them to be all they can be, good backs. However I would love to see a great back behind this great line that will allow him or them to be great backs and have a great running game much like DeMarco had or even better.
Jason Witten is always reliable but aging. Hopefully Dez can get back to being Dez and I will try not to judge him for last seasons performance due to injuries. The FO can find a better #2 to replace Williams. And Beasly is a good slot receiver.
So finally, where do we go from here?
The FO has added depth this offseason and made it a point not to over pay like they did with Carr and I applaud them for that.
With the fourth overall pick in the draft many fans and a few sports radio heads want a QB taken in this draft. I believe that will be a huge mistake and one that the Browns consistently keep botching on.
The FO must first build an effective defense that produces a pass rush that doesn't have to get sacks so much as get great QB pressure to produce forced and errant throws. A great defensive line makes an ok defensive backfield a good one and allows our line backers to clean up and head hunt.
I really like the Seahawks template for their Super Bowl runs. They built a defense that got turn overs, gave the offensive great filed position and put points on the board. This allowed Russell Wilson to hand the ball off to the great Marshawn Lynch and Russell could just manage the game while growing into a top tier QB.
If the FO chooses to take this routine I not only believe that this is a win now mentality but also a win later post Romo era. It will allow the FO to draft for QB's in later rounds much like Russell and Brady were 3rd and 6th round picks. Their environment was conducive to helping a QB grow as well as being a winning football team.
With all that being said and all the moves made during the offseason I believe Elliot is no longer an option at 4 if he ever was. I'm not high on Bosa but I wouldn't be crying buckets of tears if he was taken. I'd love to have Jalen Ramsey if he is at 4. If he is not then the next logical choice seeing as how I think a QB should come in round 3 or 4 would be to take the Athletic Miles Jack. He will provide linebacker depth when Sean Lee gets another concussion and the opposing offense immediately attacks our weak spot. But I believe he could become our Kam Chancellor and have him play strong safety. This would extend his longevity and with his athleticism I believe he will be able to grow in coverage ability but have the size and power to play the position effectively more so than Church who is on his last year.
Rounds 2 and 3 should be dedicated to DE, DT, and CB in which ever order the FO's draft board allows.
When Romo retires, his 20 million against the cap will be gone, Jason Witten won't be far behind him as well. I'm hearing there is a plethora of quality running backs who might be coming out in next years draft and that will be the time to find a great running back to work behind this great line. Find Witten's replacement(someone who can block and catch) and draft another QB in later rounds and continue to groom them until we find one that can work on a team that has been built to allow a QB to go through the growing pains without sacrificing wins. As well as playing them on their rookie contracts and keeping the huge chunk of cap space they take up free until one has proven capable enough to be a franchise QB.

A couple of weeks ago I made a post on what I'm calling "adjusted Passer Rating" that examined the QBs from 2014. I decided to expand on that research, and what I ended up doing was era-adjusting the passer rating for every player season where that player attempted over 100 passes, all the way back to 1932 (the first year the NFL kept statistics). That's 2,270 qualifying seasons. While in the early years of the game few players met that threshold (in fact, in 1932, only one player, Arnie Herber, threw over 100 passes), in recent years there was an average of about 45 players that met the threshold per season. Here's brief explanation of how passer rating works:
here is a brief explanation:

• Passer rating combines four categories, Completion %, Yards/Attempt, TD%, and INT%
• A calculation is performed on each number, which results in a value between 0 and 2.375
• There are coefficients in each calculation that are supposed to make an "average" performance have a score of 1.00
• If a player performed exactly average, their Passer Rating would be 66.7
• Those coefficients are based on values found from passing data from the years 1960-1969.
• The coefficients used were, respectively, 30, 3, 1, and 1.

If you want more detailed information, please read this article.
The thing I modified are the coefficients, which instead of basing them on data from the 60's, I'm basing them on the previous 10 seasons. So while the data calculated for passers in 1969 is based on 1960-1969, the data for 2014 is based on 2005-2014, and the data from 1985 is based on 1976-1985. This (theoretically) creates an era-adjusted formula that puts the rating of a player from 1957 on par with the rating of a player from 2009. That's probably not the case because (a) the passing game was stilly pretty scarce in 1957 and (b) passer rating isn't necessarily the best formula to judge QBs anyway, but I still think the data is interesting to take a look at.
Furthermore, I separated the data into two categories. The two categories are seasons from 1932-1972 and seasons from 1973-2014. While that's pretty much arbitrary, I think it's a nice cutoff because (a) 1973 was the first season passer rating was used and (b) it splits the seasons in half.
By the way, if you want to check out my spreadsheet with all of the data, here it is. Anyway, below are the results for the best and worse passer rating season of all time:

Top 75 All-Time Adjusted Passer Ratings Since 1973

(* denotes seasons where player attempted fewer than 200 passes)

Rank	Player	Year	Adj PR	PR	Rank
1	Aaron Rodgers	2011	118.58	122.46	1
2	Peyton Manning	2004	118.04	121.11	2
3	Steve Grogan*	1986	116.58	113.85	6
4	Nick Foles	2013	115.48	119.21	3
5	Tom Brady	2007	115.03	117.18	4
6	Steve Young	1994	112.34	112.79	8
7	Joe Montana	1989	111.64	112.41	9
8	Dan Marino	1984	111.64	108.94	18
9	Wade Wilson	1992*	109.26	110.11	14
10	Ken Stabler	1976	109.13	103.41	38
11	Peyton Manning	2013	108.13	115.11	5
12	Tom Brady	2010	107.84	110.99	11
13	Boomer Esiason*	1997	107.75	106.88	22
14	Bert Jones	1976	107.72	102.47	45
15	Daunte Culpepper	2004	106.89	110.94	12
16	Kurt Warner	1999	106.50	109.24	16
17	Steve Young	1992	106.10	107.03	21
18	Aaron Rodgers	2014	105.97	112.19	10
19	Joe Montana	1984	104.80	102.87	43
20	Josh McCown	2013	104.22	109.02	17
21	Randall Cunningham	1998	103.94	106.04	23
22	Tony Romo	2014	103.21	113.24	7
23	Ken Anderson	1981	102.67	98.41	82
24	Steve Young	1997	102.52	104.72	31
25	Drew Brees	2009	102.52	109.64	15
26	Brett Favre	2009	102.38	107.25	20
27	Drew Brees	2011	102.27	110.63	13
28	Matt Cavanaugh*	1980	101.99	95.93	125
29	Dave Krieg	1994	101.92	101.71	52
30	Brian Griese	2000	101.66	102.88	42
31	Eric Zeier*	1997	101.65	101.15	61
32	Joe Montana	1987	101.63	102.10	48
33	Aaron Rodgers	2012	101.36	108.02	19
34	Drew Brees	2004	101.19	104.78	29
35	Chad Pennington	2002	101.18	104.21	34
36	Donovan McNabb	2004	101.16	104.74	30
37	Steve Bartkowski	1983	100.40	97.64	93
38	Vinny Testaverde	1998	100.30	101.61	53
39	Pat Haden*	1976	100.10	94.78	149
40	Joe Theismann	1983	99.85	96.98	107
41	Jim McMahon	1984	99.83	97.83	92
42	Jim Kelly	1990	99.57	101.18	59
43	Ken Stabler	1974	99.51	94.95	146
44	Ken Anderson	1974	99.42	95.67	130
45	Dan Marino	1983	99.34	95.97	124
46	Rob Johnson*	1998	99.20	102.94	41
47	Jim Harbaugh	1995	99.07	100.74	66
48	Trent Green	2000	99.06	101.79	51
49	Philip Rivers	2008	99.05	105.54	26
50	Steve Young	1991	99.01	101.80	50
51	David Garrard	2007	99.01	102.20	47
52	Danny White*	1986	98.77	97.86	91
53	Sonny Jurgensen*	1974	98.63	94.52	156
54	Peyton Manning	2005	98.61	104.06	37
55	Ken Anderson	1975	98.34	93.92	161
56	Roger Staubach	1979	98.27	92.34	201
57	Steve Young	1998	98.18	101.13	62
58	Aaron Rodgers	2009	97.92	103.24	40
59	Roger Staubach	1973	97.84	94.57	154
60	Steve Young	1993	97.75	101.50	56
61	Philip Rivers	2009	97.51	104.40	33
62	Ben Roethlisberger	2007	97.45	104.13	35
63	Brett Favre	1995	97.44	99.55	72
64	Ken Anderson	1982	97.43	95.33	138
65	Dave Krieg	1983	97.37	95.00	144
66	Ken O'Brien	1985	97.35	96.24	120
67	Tom Brady	2011	97.32	105.57	25
68	Peyton Manning	2012	97.20	105.85	24
69	Troy Aikman	1993	96.84	99.02	74
70	Steve McNair	2003	96.77	100.36	68
71	Bubby Brister*	1998	96.70	98.97	76
72	Joe Montana	1983	96.63	94.56	155
73	Peyton Manning	2006	96.40	100.95	64
74	Fran Tarkenton	1975	96.36	91.83	215
75	Fran Tarkenton	1973	96.34	93.22	175

When there was a name on this list I didn't recognize, it was most likely because they didn't have more than 200 attempts, and their season was just an anomaly.
From this analysis, Aaron Rodgers' 2011 still just barely edges out Peyton Manning's 2004 as the most efficient QB season of all time. In fact, four of the top 4 were from this milleneum, and the only one that wasn't was by Steve Grogan, who barely made the attempts threshold in 1986 with 102 attempts. The general inflation of traditional passer rating in recent seasons is also clear, because you have years like Romo's 2014 dropping significantly while a season like Marino's '84 rises drastically. Other than that, you have quite a number of players who are considered all-time greats on the list, with the notable exception of Elway.
Now on to the top players from before 1973:

Top 50 All-Time Adjusted Passer Ratings Before 1973

Rank	Player	Year	Adj PR	PR	Rank
1	Sid Luckman	1943	132.99	107.55	4
2	Sid Luckman	1941	125.84	95.26	18
3	Sammy Baugh	1945	124.44	109.89	2
4	Ed Danowski	1935	120.94	69.71	202
5	Sammy Baugh	1940	118.33	85.58	63
6	Cecil Isbell	1942	117.13	86.99	51
7	Milt Plum	1960	115.59	110.37	1
8	Sid Luckman	1942	114.03	80.12	103
9	Cecil Isbell	1941	112.42	81.35	96
10	Frank Filchock	1944	111.60	85.96	60
11	Sammy Baugh	1942	110.97	82.53	86
12	Sammy Baugh	1943	110.54	77.99	126
13	Tommy Thompson	1948	109.98	98.37	12
14	Otto Graham	1953	109.50	99.66	11
15	Ace Parker	1940	108.91	73.29	170
16	Charlie Conerly	1959	108.86	102.73	10
17	Bill Nelsen	1966	107.53	107.81	3
18	Roger Staubach	1971	106.57	104.81	7
19	Ed Danowski	1937	106.39	72.79	173
20	Y.A. Tittle	1963	106.36	104.77	8
21	Sammy Baugh	1947	106.30	91.98	27
22	Bob Berry	1969	106.13	106.49	5
23	Tommy O'Connell	1957	105.36	93.33	23
24	Arnie Herber	1936	104.90	58.90	344
25	Bart Starr	1966	104.86	104.96	6
26	Bart Starr	1968	104.27	104.35	9
27	Ed Danowski	1938	103.95	66.94	235
28	Otto Graham	1955	103.16	94.00	19
29	Ray Mallouf	1948	102.63	91.24	30
30	Sid Luckman	1945	102.18	82.48	87
31	Bob Waterfield	1945	100.84	72.37	179
32	Billy Wade	1961	100.18	93.72	21
33	Eddie LeBaron	1962	99.98	95.36	16
34	Johnny Unitas	1959	99.65	91.99	26
35	Roy Zimmerman	1945	99.01	75.94	144
36	Johnny Unitas	1957	98.43	88.05	46
37	Bernie Masterson	1939	98.42	58.65	346
38	Norm Van Brocklin	1950	98.40	85.08	70
39	Cecil Isbell	1939	98.25	66.36	247
40	Harry Newman	1933	97.93	51.75	417
41	Bart Starr	1964	97.88	97.12	14
42	Arnie Herber	1937	97.83	50.00	436
43	Johnny Unitas	1965	97.49	97.38	13
44	Johnny Unitas	1958	97.41	89.96	36
45	Johnny Unitas	1964	97.25	96.40	15
46	Arnie Herber	1939	97.16	61.65	307
47	Tommy Thompson	1949	97.09	84.38	75
48	Eddie LeBaron	1957	96.93	86.12	59
49	Arnie Herber	1934	96.80	45.07	477
50	Y.A. Tittle	1953	96.78	84.15	78

Right away what jumps out to you here is just how far ahead of their time both Sid Luckman and Sammy Baugh were as passers. Their adjusted passer ratings are ridiculous because they put up ridiculous numbers compared to their contemporaries. Besides those two, the guys from the 50's and 60's like Johnny Unitas, YA Tittle, Otto Graham, and Bart Starr showing up on the list. I also believe Rodger Staubach is the only player to show up on both lists, although I haven't tried very hard to verify that.

Leaders in Adjusted Passer Rating for Every Season

(Season with fewer than 200 pass attempts excluded after 1960) (* denotes tie) (** denotes fewer than 10 qualifiers) (*** denotes fewer than 5 qualifier) (**** denotes only qualifier)

Year	Player	Adj PR	Rank	PR	Rank
2014	Aaron Rodgers	105.97	18	112.19	10
2013	Nick Foles	115.48	4	119.21	3
2012	Aaron Rodgers	101.36	33	108.02	19
2011	Aaron Rodgers	118.58	1	122.46	1
2010	Tom Brady	107.84	12	110.99	11
2009	Drew Brees	102.52	25	109.64	15
2008	Philip Rivers	99.05	49	105.54	26
2007	Tom Brady	115.03	5	117.18	4
2006	Peyton Manning	96.40	73	100.95	64
2005	Peyton Manning	98.61	54	104.06	37
2004	Peyton Manning	118.04	2	121.11	2
2003	Steve McNair	96.77	70	100.36	68
2002	Chad Pennington	101.18	35	104.21	34
2001	Kurt Warner	92.82	128	101.37	57
2000	Brian Griese	101.66	30	102.88	42
1999	Kurt Warner	106.50	16	109.24	16
1998	Randall Cunningham	103.94	21	106.04	23
1997	Steve Young	102.52	24	104.72	31
1996	Steve Young	93.67	114	97.15	104
1995	Jim Harbaugh	99.07	47	100.74	66
1994	Steve Young	112.34	6	112.79	8
1993	Steve Young	97.75	60	101.50	56
1992	Steve Young	106.10	17	107.03	21
1991	Steve Young	99.01	50	101.80	50
1990	Jim Kelly	99.57	42	101.18	59
1989	Joe Montana	111.64	7	112.41	9
1988	Boomer Esiason	95.39	83	97.36	101
1987	Joe Montana	101.63	32	102.10	48
1986	Tommy Kramer	93.11	125	92.59	193
1985	Ken O'Brien	97.35	66	96.24	120
1984	Dan Marino	111.64	8	108.94	18
1983	Steve Bartkowski	100.40	37	97.64	93
1982	Ken Anderson	97.43	64	95.33	138
1981	Ken Anderson	102.67	23	98.41	82
1980	Ron Jaworski*	95.98	79	91.04	229
1980	Brian Sipe*	95.98	80	91.37	222
1979	Roger Staubach	98.27	56	92.34	201
1978	Terry Bradshaw	91.26	151	84.68	448
1977	Bob Griese	93.68	113	87.75	336
1976	Ken Stabler	109.13	10	103.41	38
1975	Ken Anderson	98.34	55	93.92	161
1974	Ken Stabler	99.51	43	94.95	146
1973	Roger Staubach	97.84	59	94.57	154
1972	Billy Kilmer	87.25	121	84.82	71
1971	Roger Staubach	106.57	18	104.81	7
1970	John Brodie	94.37	64	93.81	20
1969	Fran Tarkenton	87.25	120	87.23	49
1968	Earl Morrall	93.24	74	93.16	24
1967	Sonny Jurgensen	87.55	118	87.28	48
1966	Bart Starr	104.86	25	104.96	6
1965	Johnny Unitas	97.49	43	97.38	13
1964	Bart Starr	97.88	41	97.12	14
1963	Y.A. Tittle	106.36	20	104.77	8
1962	Bart Starr	94.21	65	90.65	33
1961	Billy Wade	100.18	32	93.72	21
1960	Milt Plum	115.59	7	110.37	1
1959	Charlie Conerly	108.86	16	102.73	10
1958	Johnny Unitas	97.41	44	89.96	36
1957	Tommy O'Connell	105.36	23	93.33	23
1956	Ed Brown	95.13	59	83.11	84
1955	Otto Graham	103.16	28	94.00	19
1954	Adrian Burk	92.76	80	80.37	100
1953	Otto Graham	109.50	14	99.66	11
1952	Tobin Rote	96.17	52	85.63	62
1951	Bob Waterfield	93.95	69	81.77	93
1950	Norm Van Brocklin	98.40	38	85.08	70
1949	Tommy Thompson	97.09	47	84.38	75
1948	Tommy Thompson	109.98	13	98.37	12
1947	Sammy Baugh**	106.30	21	91.98	27
1946	Sid Luckman**	93.13	78	70.97	191
1945	Sammy Baugh**	124.44	3	109.89	2
1944	Frank Filchock**	111.60	10	85.96	60
1943	Sid Luckman**	132.99	1	107.55	4
1942	Cecil Isbell**	117.13	6	86.99	51
1941	Sid Luckman**	125.84	2	95.26	18
1940	Sammy Baugh**	118.33	5	85.58	63
1939	Bernie Masterson**	98.42	37	58.65	346
1938	Ed Danowski**	103.95	27	66.94	235
1937	Ed Danowski***	106.39	19	72.79	173
1936	Arnie Herber***	104.90	24	58.90	344
1935	Ed Danowski***	120.94	4	69.71	202
1934	Arnie Herber***	96.80	49	45.07	477
1933	Harry Newman***	97.93	40	51.75	417
1932	Arnie Herber****	94.12	67	51.55	421

As you can see, the early yearst of the game saw really scarce passing and not all that many qualifiers. In fact, the league didn't really consistently have 10+ passers with 200+ attempts until the mid-60s. What you can also see from this list is players who have been dominant. Rodgers sticks out at the top, winning 3 of the last four seasons. Manning's 2004-2006 seasons were also a dominant stretch. Really though, this just solidifies Steve Young as the passer rating king, as he led the league in 6 out of 7 seasons. The only other player lead the league in Adjusted Passer Rating three times in the modern era is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, the Bengals' Ken Anderson.

Bottom 75 All-Time Adjusted Passer Ratings Since 1973

Rank	Player	Year	Adj PR	PR	Rank
1710	Kurt Kittner	2003	14.84	32.46	1704
1709	Rick Mirer	1997	20.22	37.68	1695
1708	Derek Anderson	2009	21.08	42.10	1683
1707	Ryan Leaf	1998	22.45	38.97	1692
1706	Dan Pastorini	1981	23.74	22.89	1708
1705	Kim McQuilken	1976	23.74	21.71	1710
1704	Scott Bull	1978	24.41	22.43	1709
1703	Alex Smith	2005	25.55	40.85	1685
1702	Ryan Lindley	2012	26.20	46.72	1658
1701	Alex Van Pelt	1997	29.68	37.16	1698
1700	Chris Simms	2006	30.77	46.31	1663
1699	JaMarcus Russell	2009	31.29	49.97	1637
1698	Bert Jones	1973	31.94	28.82	1707
1697	Bobby Hoying	1998	31.99	45.63	1671
1696	Craig Whelihan	1998	32.18	47.96	1650
1695	Danny Kanell	2003	32.83	49.09	1644
1694	Glenn Foley	1996	33.07	46.74	1657
1693	Gary Marangi	1976	33.62	30.78	1706
1692	Heath Shuler	1997	33.65	46.58	1662
1691	John Skelton	2012	34.24	55.40	1571
1690	Bob Lee	1974	34.30	32.41	1705
1689	Trent Edwards	2010	34.59	54.93	1579
1688	Marty Domres	1974	34.59	33.21	1702
1687	Erik Kramer	1999	34.74	46.65	1661
1686	Caleb Hanie	2011	34.84	41.83	1684
1685	Josh Johnson	2009	34.89	50.92	1628
1684	John Fourcade	1990	35.36	46.08	1666
1683	Pat Sullivan	1974	35.38	33.67	1701
1682	Richard Todd	1976	35.45	33.20	1703
1681	Mike Tomczak	1995	35.85	44.34	1674
1680	Stoney Case	1999	36.02	50.32	1634
1679	Danny Kanell	2000	36.08	49.64	1640
1678	Mike Tomczak	1990	36.34	43.79	1676
1677	Jake Plummer	1999	36.41	50.76	1632
1676	Todd Bouman	2005	36.41	54.75	1584
1675	Steve Grogan	1988	36.58	37.62	1696
1674	Trent Dilfer	2007	36.58	55.09	1577
1673	Craig Krenzel	2004	36.70	52.54	1613
1672	Josh Freeman	2013	36.87	52.57	1611
1671	Kirk Cousins	2013	37.08	58.37	1518
1670	Stan Gelbaugh	1991	37.19	42.13	1682
1669	Scott Mitchell	2000	37.21	50.79	1631
1668	Tyler Palko	2011	37.31	59.79	1482
1667	Jerry Tagge	1974	37.74	36.02	1700
1666	Keith Null	2009	38.20	49.91	1638
1665	Andrew Walter	2006	38.39	55.78	1557
1664	Gary Huff	1973	38.52	36.64	1699
1663	Kelly Stouffer	1992	38.56	47.70	1652
1662	Bobby Hebert	1994	38.58	51.03	1625
1661	Steve Stenstrom	1999	38.76	52.75	1609
1660	Bill Kenney	1988	38.92	46.27	1664
1659	Eric Zeier	1995	38.93	51.88	1621
1658	Mike McMahon	2002	39.01	52.37	1616
1657	Elvis Grbac	1998	39.32	53.10	1602
1656	Mike Pagel	1990	39.34	48.23	1649
1655	Jake Delhomme	2009	39.50	59.39	1497
1654	Matt Hasselbeck	2008	39.89	57.82	1527
1653	Mark Malone	1987	40.00	46.68	1660
1652	Vinny Testaverde	2005	40.14	59.36	1498
1651	Vinny Testaverde	1988	40.28	48.76	1648
1650	Matt Robinson	1980	40.28	39.69	1689
1649	Brady Quinn	2012	40.34	60.06	1476
1648	Chris Chandler	1991	40.42	50.95	1627
1647	Eli Manning	2004	40.61	55.45	1569
1646	Ryan Leaf	2000	40.72	56.21	1552
1645	Gary Danielson	1977	40.78	38.13	1694
1644	Mike Phipps	1980	40.86	39.99	1687
1643	Don Majkowski	1996	40.98	54.94	1578
1642	Gary Huff	1977	41.02	37.38	1697
1641	Scott Secules	1993	41.41	54.26	1591
1640	Matthew Stafford	2009	41.43	60.96	1449
1639	Kordell Stewart	2003	41.53	56.83	1541
1638	Steve Bartkowski	1976	41.63	39.48	1690
1637	Joe Pisarcik	1979	41.65	39.00	1691
1636	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005	41.69	58.16	1523

This is the list you don't want to be on, especially if you're Kurt Kittner. It's mostly a bunch of backups or busts, but there are some players, like Alex Smith, Jake Plummer, Vinny Testaverde, Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Plummer, Don Majkowski, and Eli Manning, who had successful (or better) careers.

Bottom 50 All-Time Adjusted Passer Ratings Before 1973

Year	Player	Adj PR	Rank	PR	Rank
1949	Stan Heath	12.26	560	0.04	560
1970	Terry Bradshaw	31.31	559	30.35	543
1959	Tobin Rote	32.47	558	26.83	548
1970	Joe Kapp	33.07	557	32.60	534
1971	Bobby Douglass	38.07	556	36.97	525
1967	Ron Vander Kelen	38.25	555	36.94	526
1953	Babe Parilli	41.07	554	28.51	544
1953	Eddie LeBaron	41.07	553	28.33	545
1971	Kent Nix	41.56	552	40.40	511
1969	Terry Hanratty	41.60	551	41.73	501
1957	Babe Parilli	42.22	550	34.76	531
1970	Mike Taliaferro	42.37	549	41.85	500
1966	Terry Nofsinger	42.65	548	41.15	505
1935	Johnny Gildea	42.84	547	12.06	558
1951	Chuck Ortmann	43.20	546	24.00	553
1971	Don Horn	43.40	545	42.45	497
1950	Tobin Rote	43.64	544	26.69	549
1968	Randy Johnson	43.78	543	42.47	495
1971	James Harris	44.13	542	43.02	491
1960	Zeke Bratkowski	44.18	541	40.38	512
1971	Dan Pastorini	44.81	540	43.78	486
1948	Jack Jacobs	45.12	539	27.90	547
1972	Gary Cuozzo	45.14	538	43.67	489
1956	Bobby Thomason	45.60	537	40.73	509
1940	Billy Patterson	46.21	536	14.10	557
1940	Hugh McCullough	46.24	535	23.89	554
1952	Frank Tripucka	46.65	534	28.27	546
1968	Kent Nix	46.66	533	45.67	473
1970	Terry Hanratty	46.68	532	46.10	469
1943	Ronnie Cahill	47.02	531	33.14	533
1972	Jim Plunkett	47.04	530	45.70	472
1971	Dennis Shaw	47.07	529	46.08	471
1949	Harry Gilmer	47.29	528	30.97	540
1971	Steve Ramsey	47.64	527	46.56	465
1954	Lamar McHan	47.67	526	32.39	535
1971	Pete Beathard	47.75	525	46.71	464
1971	Scott Hunter	47.87	524	46.09	470
1965	Buddy Humphrey	47.98	523	44.78	480
1949	Jug Girard	48.53	522	31.63	538
1953	Tobin Rote	48.60	521	32.38	536
1953	Steve Romanik	48.78	520	31.75	537
1969	Greg Landry	48.85	519	48.26	455
1967	Randy Johnson	49.13	518	47.80	461
1966	Randy Johnson	49.19	517	47.78	462
1939	Hugh McCullough	49.36	516	14.29	556
1967	Joe Kapp	49.53	515	48.15	456
1944	John Grigas	49.69	514	31.52	539
1955	Lamar McHan	49.80	513	34.79	530
1966	Milt Plum	49.86	512	47.83	460
1960	Jim Ninowski	50.14	511	40.94	508

Stan Heath did not actually have a passer rating of 0.04 in 1949. It was 4.6. I forgot to set a lower for bound some of the categories at 0, so on very rare occasions (and only in the early years of the game) a player ended up actually getting a negative score for some of the categories. Still, he was just horrendous at passing. He completed fewer than a quarter of his passes (26/106) for 355 yards, with just 1 TD and 14 INTs. And, yet, when adjusting for era, Kurt Kittner in 2003 was almost worse. Kind of astounding. Being that bad must have taken effort. Right after Heath when looking at the bottom of the list is 4 time Super Bowl champion Terry Bradshaw. It sucks that the Steelers didn't give up on him, huh?

Last Place in Adjusted Passer Rating for Every Season

(* denotes player also had at least one season leading in adjusted passer rating)

Year	Player	Adj PR	Rank	PR	Rank
2014	Jake Locker	47.97	1571	70.95	1124
2013	Josh Freeman	36.87	1672	52.57	1611
2012	Ryan Lindley	26.20	1702	46.72	1658
2011	Caleb Hanie	34.84	1686	41.83	1684
2010	Trent Edwards	34.59	1689	54.93	1579
2009	Derek Anderson	21.08	1708	42.10	1683
2008	Matt Hasselbeck	39.89	1654	57.82	1527
2007	Trent Dilfer	36.58	1674	55.09	1577
2006	Chris Simms	30.77	1700	46.31	1663
2005	Alex Smith	25.55	1703	40.85	1685
2004	Craig Krenzel	36.70	1673	52.54	1613
2003	Kurt Kittner	14.84	1710	32.46	1704
2002	Mike McMahon	39.01	1658	52.37	1616
2001	Ty Detmer	43.34	1622	56.88	1539
2000	Danny Kanell	36.08	1679	49.64	1640
1999	Erik Kramer	34.74	1687	46.65	1661
1998	Ryan Leaf	22.45	1707	38.97	1692
1997	Rick Mirer	20.22	1709	37.68	1695
1996	Glenn Foley	33.07	1694	46.74	1657
1995	Mike Tomczak	35.85	1681	44.34	1674
1994	Bobby Hebert	38.58	1662	51.03	1625
1993	Scott Secules	41.41	1641	54.26	1591
1992	Kelly Stouffer	38.56	1663	47.70	1652
1991	Stan Gelbaugh	37.19	1670	42.13	1682
1990	John Fourcade	35.36	1684	46.08	1666
1989	Troy Aikman	47.19	1580	55.68	1561
1988	Steve Grogan*	36.58	1675	37.62	1696
1987	Mark Malone	40.00	1653	46.68	1660
1986	Mike Tomczak	43.84	1613	50.23	1636
1985	Todd Blackledge	46.01	1596	50.29	1635
1984	Art Schlichter	43.57	1615	46.19	1665
1983	Scott Brunner	52.67	1491	54.29	1590
1982	Joe Ferguson	56.09	1414	56.33	1551
1981	Dan Pastorini	23.74	1706	22.89	1708
1980	Matt Robinson	40.28	1650	39.69	1689
1979	Joe Pisarcik	41.65	1637	39.00	1691
1978	Scott Bull	24.41	1704	22.43	1709
1977	Gary Danielson	40.78	1645	38.13	1694
1976	Kim McQuilken	23.74	1705	21.71	1710
1975	Archie Manning	46.95	1587	44.28	1675
1974	Bob Lee	34.30	1690	32.41	1705
1973	Bert Jones	31.94	1698	28.82	1707
1972	Gary Cuozzo	45.14	538	43.67	489
1971	Bobby Douglass	38.07	556	36.97	525
1970	Terry Bradshaw*	31.31	559	30.35	543
1969	Terry Hanratty	41.60	551	41.73	501
1968	Randy Johnson	43.78	543	42.47	495
1967	Ron Vander Kelen	38.25	555	36.94	526
1966	Terry Nofsinger	42.65	548	41.15	505
1965	Buddy Humphrey	47.98	523	44.78	480
1964	Y.A. Tittle*	55.47	482	51.58	420
1963	King Hill	55.31	484	49.87	438
1962	Sam Etcheverry	50.53	509	42.45	496
1961	Norm Snead	58.98	454	51.61	419
1960	Zeke Bratkowski	44.18	541	40.38	512
1959	Tobin Rote*	32.47	558	26.83	548
1958	Bart Starr*	53.58	491	41.23	504
1957	Babe Parilli	42.22	550	34.76	531
1956	Bobby Thomason	45.60	537	40.73	509
1955	Lamar McHan	49.80	513	34.79	530
1954	Lamar McHan	47.67	526	32.39	535
1953	Babe Parilli	41.07	554	28.51	544
1952	Frank Tripucka	46.65	534	28.27	546
1951	Chuck Ortmann	43.20	546	24.00	553
1950	Tobin Rote*	43.64	544	26.69	549
1949	Stan Heath	12.26	560	0.04	560
1948	Jack Jacobs	45.12	539	27.90	547
1947	Bob Waterfield	61.00	432	39.23	518
1946	Dave Ryan	64.50	397	41.10	506
1945	Paul Christman	63.62	405	42.55	494
1944	John Grigas	49.69	514	31.52	539
1943	Ronnie Cahill	47.02	531	33.14	533
1942	Bud Schwenk	60.48	440	25.53	552
1941	Parker Hall	67.51	359	30.55	541
1940	Billy Patterson	46.21	536	14.10	557
1939	Hugh McCullough	49.36	516	14.29	556
1938	Frank Filchock*	66.00	375	25.58	551
1937	Dave Smukler	63.33	408	21.54	555
1936	Phil Sarboe	74.05	291	30.48	542
1935	Johnny Gildea	42.84	547	12.06	558
1934	Warren Heller	50.44	510	10.53	559
1933	Arnie Herber*	70.74	325	26.21	550
1932	Arnie Herber*	94.12	67	51.55	421

I didn't put Steve Grogan's 1986 season on the other list, but it kind of counts so I gave him an asterick. By my count, three QBs on this list (Aikman, Bradshaw, and Dilfer) have a combined 8 Super Bowl rings as starters. Dan Pastorini also started 5 games for the 1980 Raiders team that won the Super Bowl but Jim Plunkett was the Super Bowl starter and MVP so I didn't count him.
So that's all I've got. If you want to see all the data, once again I invite you to follow this link.

rhinoanon's post earlier about the lack of success from the Chiefs in drafting QBs made me wonder what kind of success rate first round QBs actually have. I'm discounting 2011 and 2012 because two years in the NFL isn't enough to determine if a player is successful or not (and honestly I have concerns about using 2010 players too).

Name	Year Round	Pick	Team	Success?
Sam Bradford	2010	1st	Rams	Yes
Tim Tebow	2010	25th	Broncos	No
Matthew Stafford	2009	1st	Lions	Yes
Mark Sanchez	2009	5th	Jets	No
Josh Freeman	2009	17th	Buccaneers	No
Matt Ryan	2008	3rd	Falcons	Yes
Joe Flacco	2008	18th	Ravens	No*
JaMarcus Russell	2007	1st	Raiders	No
Brady Quinn	2007	22nd	Browns	No
Vince Young	2006	3rd	Titans	No*
Matt Leinart	2006	10th	Cardinals	No
Jay Cutler	2006	11th	Broncos	Yes
Alex D. Smith	2005	1st	49ers	No*
Aaron Rodgers	2005	24th	Packers	Yes
Jason Campbell	2005	25th	Redskins	No*
Eli Manning	2004	1st	Chargers	Yes
Philip Rivers	2004	4th	Giants	Yes
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	11th	Steelers	Yes
J.P. Losman	2004	22nd	Bills	No
Carson Palmer	2003	1st	Bengals	Yes
Byron Leftwich	2003	7th	Jaguars	No*
Kyle Boller	2003	19th	Ravens	No
Rex Grossman	2003	22nd	Bears	No
David Carr	2002	1st	Texans	No
Joey Harrington	2002	3rd	Lions	No
Patrick Ramsey	2002	32nd	Redskins	No
Michael Vick	2001	1st	Falcons	Yes
Drew Brees	2001	32nd	Chargers	Yes
Chad Pennington	2000	18th	Jets	Yes
Tim Couch	1999	1st	Browns	No
Donovan McNabb	1999	2nd	Eagles	Yes
Akili Smith	1999	3rd	Bengals	No
Daunte Culpepper	1999	11th	Vikings	No*
Cade McNown	1999	12th	Bears	No
Peyton Manning	1998	1st	Colts	Yes
Ryan Leaf	1998	2nd	Chargers	No
Jim Druckenmiller	1997	26th	49ers	No
Steve McNair	1995	3rd	Titans	Yes
Kerry Collins	1995	5th	Panthers	Yes
Heath Shuler	1994	3rd	Redskins	No
Trent Dilfer	1994	6th	Buccaneers	No*
Drew Bledsoe	1993	1st	Patriots	Yes
Rick Mirer	1993	2nd	Seahawks	No
David Klingler	1992	6th	Bengals	No
Tommy Maddox	1992	25th	Steelers	No
Dan McGwire	1991	16th	Seahawks	No
Todd Marinovich	1991	24th	Raiders	No
Jeff George	1990	1st	Colts	Yes
Andre Ware	1990	7th	Lions	No

• denotes a player who may have had moderate success in the NFL, but not at the level at which they were drafted. It may also denote a player who had a career that was shortened due to injury.

There have been 50 QBs drafted in the first round between 1990 and 2010. Of those 50 only 18 have had any kind of success in the NFL.
Fun Facts

• Four teams have drafted three QBs during this stretch (Bengals, Chargers, Redskins and Lions). The QBs from those four teams have gone on to a success rate of 4/12, or worse than the average over the NFL.
  
• Five teams haven't drafted any QBs between 1990 and 2010 (though the Cowboys really shouldn't count since they drafted Aikman in 1989).
  
• The team with the best success rate of drafting first round QBs is the Colts with 2/2. If we count Luck (assuming he has a career that's not cut short by injury), they'll end up 3/3 over the last 25 years.
  
• The team with the worst success rate is the Redskins who have drafted three QBs in that time frame and have struck out on all three (though they're redeeming themselves with RG3).
  
• The best drafting division in the NFL is the NFC South (3/5) AFC South (3/5), though the AFC South is bolstered because of the great drafting by the Colts.
  
• The worst is the NFC West (1/6) followed by the AFC North (2/7) and the NFC North (2/7).
  

Here is a list of the teams with the number of QBs drafted in the first round and their success rate.

Division	Team	Number of QBs	Success rate
AFC East	Patriots	1	100% (1/1)
AFC East	Jets	2	50% (1/2)
AFC East	Dolphins	0	N/A
AFC East	Bills	1	0% (0/1)
AFC North	Ravens	2	0% (0/2)
AFC North	Steelers	2	50% (1/2)
AFC North	Bengals	3	33% (1/3)
AFC North	Browns	2	0% (0/2)
AFC South	Texans	1	0% (0/1)
AFC South	Jags	0	N/A
AFC South	Colts	2	100% (2/2)
AFC South	Titans	2	50% (1/2)
AFC West	Broncos	2	50% (1/2)
AFC West	Raiders	2	50% (1/2)
AFC West	Chargers	3	66% (2/3)
AFC West	Chiefs	0	N/A
NFC East	Giants	1	100% (1/1)
NFC East	Eagles	1	100% (1/1)
NFC East	Cowboys	0	N/A
NFC East	Redskins	3	0% (0/3)
NFC North	Packers	1	100% (1/1)
NFC North	Bears	2	0% (0/2)
NFC North	Lions	3	33% (1/3)
NFC North	Vikings	1	0% (0/1)
NFC South	Saints	0	N/A
NFC South	Falcons	2	100% (2/2)
NFC South	Buccaneers	2	0% (0/2)
NFC South	Panthers	1	100% (1/1)
NFC West	49ers	2	0% (0/2)
NFC West	Seahawks	2	0% (0/2)
NFC West	Rams	1	100% (1/1)
NFC West	Cardinals	1	0% (0/1)

Edit: I do want to make it clear that when I'm saying that someone is not a success I am not calling them awful or saying that they suck. It's simply a reflection of the success they had based on where they were drafted. For example Alex Smith as the #1 overall pick has not had nearly enough success to justify his draft position.

Bears: 1987 - J. Harbaugh, 1999 - C. McNown, 2003 - R. Grossman
Bengals: 1992 - D. Klingler, 1999 - A. Smith, 2003 - C. Palmer,
Bills: 1983 - J. Kelly, 2004 - J. Losman
Broncos: 1993 - T. Maddox, 2006 - J. Cutler, 2010 - T. Tebow
Browns: 1985 - B. Kosar (supplemental), 1999 - T. Couch, 2007 - B. Quinn, 2012 - B. Wheeden
Bucaneers : 1994 - T. Dilfer, 1987 - V. Testaverde, 2009 - J. Freeman
Cardinals: 1987 - K. Stouffer, 1989 - T. Rosenbach (supplemental), 2006 - M. Leinart
Chargers: 1998 - R. Leaf, 2004 - E. Manning (traded to Giants)
Chiefs: 1983 - T. Blackledge
Colts: 1983 - J. Elway (traded to Broncos), 1990 - J. George, 1998 - P. Manning, 2012 - A. Luck
Cowboys: 1988 - T. Aikman 1988 - S. Walsh (supplemental)
Dolphins: 1983 - D. Marino, 2012 - R. Tannehill
Eagles: 1999 - D. McNabb
Falcons: 1987 - C. Miller, 2001 - M. Vick, 2008 - M. Ryan
49ers: 1997 - J. Druckenmiller, 2005 - A. Smith
Giants: 1993 - D. Brown (supplemental), 2004 - P. Rivers (traded to Chargers)
Jaguars: 2003 - B. Leftwich, 2011 - B. Gabbert
Jets: 1983 - K. O'Brien, 2000 - C. Pennington, 2009 - M. Sanchez
Lions: 1986 - C. Long, 1990 - A. Ware, 2002 - J. Harrington, 2009 - M. Stafford
Packers: 2005 - A. Rodgers
Panthers: 1995 - K. Collins 2011 - C. Newton
Patriots 1983 - T. Eason, 1993 - D. Bledsoe
Raiders: 1991 - T. Marinovich, 2007 - J. Russell
Rams: 2010 - S. Bradford
Ravens: 2003 - K. Boller, 2008 - J. Flacco
Redskins: 1994 - H . Shuler, 2002 - P. Ramsey, 2005 - J. Campbell, 2012 - R. Griffin III
Saints: (zero fucks given)
Seahawks: 1991 - D. McGwire, 1993 - R. Mirer
Steelers: 2004 - B. Roethlisberger
Texans: 2002 - D. Carr
Titans: 1986 - J. Everett (Oilers), 1995 - S. McNair (oilers), 2006 - V. Young, 2010 - J. Locker
Vikings: 1999 - D. Culpepper, 2011 - C. Ponder
When it comes to rolling the dice and trying to nab a franchise QB in the first round, the only organization I could find who gives fewer fucks than KC is the Saints, who haven't drafted a QB in the first round since Archie Goddamn Manning. So while we're all bitching about Cassel I just wanted to illustrate that even though it's blindingly obvious we need to draft a QB in the 1st round April, it's not gonna happen. Please feel free to point out any mistakes I may have made in putting this together.

Alphabetically even.
Arizona Cardinals - Matt Leinert - 10th overall pick - 2006 - We all know about him.
Atlanta Falcons - Randy Johnson - 16th overall pick - 1966 - Only threw for 1200 yards in 7 seasons in the league.
Baltimore Ravens - Kyle Boller - 19th overall pick - 2003 - Pretty bad seeing as how the Raiders traded 2 first rounders to not deal with him.
Buffalo Bills - JP Losman - 22nd overall pick - 2004 - Fun fact about the Bills, they only drafted 2 QBs in the first round Jim Kelly and this guy.
Carolina Panthers - Kerry Collins - 5th overall pick - 1995 - Collins wasn't a bust per sé but he was a journeyman and he only stayed with the team that drafted him for 3 years, which for where he was drafted that probably shouldn't have happened.
Chicago Bears - Rex Grossman - 22nd overall pick - 2003 - I wanted to put Cade McNown here because he was drafted higher but this is for most recent so I'll go with Rex, even though he started a super bowl they got there in spite of Rex.
Cincinnati Bengals - Kabisa Akili Maradufu Smith - 3rd overall pick - 1999 - Was pretty bad, dropped by the Bengals after three years and was out of the league pretty much at the end of the year.
Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn - 22nd overall pick - 2007 - I still think he really wasn't given a chance but was traded by his third year in the league and is now a Bronco. Also wanted to note that Tim Couch is a much bigger bust, everyone and their mom already knows.
Dallas Cowboys - None - They have 2 QBs drafted in the first round Troy Aikman and a guy named Craig Morton. Morton didn't make any probowls but he was with the team for 9 seasons, and led the team to a super bowl. Why didn't I add him to the list? Well according to Wikipedia he is "... is one of the all time leaders in yards per completion." and that's a pretty good stat to be one of the leaders on so the Cowboys don't have a QB bust... yet.
Denver Broncos - Tim Tebow - 25th overall pick - 2010 - Not sure why I included his wikipedia page but I guess a fun fact about the Denver Broncos they only drafted 3 QBs in the first and 2 of them were the 25th overall pick. Tebow, and Tommy Maddox who I also would probably have labled as a bust status.
Detroit Lions - Joey Harrington - 3rd overall pick - 2002 - Not sure if he was Millen's first pick but what a way to start a drafting legacy eh Lions fans?
Green Bay Packers - Rich Campbell - 6th overall pick - 1981 - When we talk about huge draft busts why don't we talk about this guy? Only 3 tds and 300 yards for being a top 10 pick? ಠ_ಠ
Houston Texans - David Carr - 1st overall pick - 2002 - He literally got sacked to death.
Indianapolis Colts - Jeff George - 1st overall pick - 1990 - Left the colts by year 3 and then became a journeyman, not what you'd expect out of a number 1 overall pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Byron Leftwich - 7th overall pick - 2003 - Poor Byron, cannon arm, terribly slow throwing motion did him in.
Kansas City Chiefs - Todd Blackledge - 7th overall pick - 1983 - Out of the league in about 6 years is a pretty good way to earn a bust status specially when you were 7th overall. Also ಠ_ಠ Byron Leftwich was the 7th overall pick 20 years later... You cursed us Chiefs!
Miami Dolphins - None - The only two QBs they drafted are hall of famers (Dan Marino) (Bob Griese) and they have a shot at getting Luck ಠ_ಠ
Minnesota Vikings - None - They have drafted 3 QBs in the first round, Christian Ponder, Daunte Culpepper, and Tommy Kramer, Kramer made the pro bowl at least once and was apparently famous for making tons of game winning drives plus he was with the team for a solid 12 years.
New England Patriots - Tony Eason - 15th overall pick - 1983 - So he did lead the pats to the super bowl (fun fact every QB the Pats have drafted in the first led a team to a Super Bowl, Jim Plunkett was drafted in the first round but led the Raiders to Super Bowls) however not only did he not complete a pass in that game, he was out of the league about 5 years later.
New Orleans Saints - None - They have only drafted 1 QB in the first round that's Archie Manning.
New York Giants - Lee Grosscup - 10th overall pick - 1956 - Only played for the Giants for 2 years before going to play for the New York Titans (now the Jets)
New York Jets - Richard Todd - 6th overall pick - 1976 - "...In his first five seasons, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns and was booed by fans and the press"
Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell - 1st overall pick - 2007 - Lulz goes here
Philadelphia Eagles - John Reaves - 14th overall pick - 1972 - Only played for the iggles for 2 years and was kicked around the league after that.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Johnny Lattner - 7th overall pick - 1954 - Poor guy only played one season joined the airforce then had a career ending injury.
San Diego Chargers - Ryan Leaf - 2nd overall pick - 1999 - Pretty bad draft pick was pretty bad.
San Francisco 49ers - Jim Druckenmiller - 26th overall pick - 1997 - If I did this earlier this year I would've put Alex Smith but he seems to have resurrected his career, so this guy will have to do. Only played one season for the niners before going out and doing his own thing or something.
Seattle Seahawks - Rick Mirer - 2nd overall pick - 1993 - Was only with the hawks for 3 years before getting shitcanned.
St Louis Rams - Terry Baker - 1st overall pick - 1963 - Only played 3 years in the league with the Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Trent Dilfer - 6th overall pick - 1994 - Really tempted to put none here as well because he did make the pro bowl and won a super bowl (albiet he had nothing to do with the super bowl win) I don't know about this to be honest. What do you guys think? The other QB draft picks they had were Josh Freeman, Vinny Testaverde, and Doug Williams.
Tennessee Titans - Vince Young - 3rd Overall pick - 2006 - Sure he won OROY, and had a pro bowl nomination but he's still probably one of the worst QBs drafted in the top 10 this past decade. Dude couldn't really throw to win.
Washington Redskins - Heath Schuler - 3rd overall pick - 1994 - So I know Patrick Ramsey was chosen in the first round and would also be considered the most recent bust but fuck it, he was 32nd overall and I'm tired haha. Heath Schuler was also god awful.
EDIT: Changed the Patriots mistake.