2024.05.13 23:24 Grouchy_Carpenter489 Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP: It is time to forget about standard Excel sheets and take an enhanced data upload tool
A Time to Forget About Ordinary Excel Sheets and Take an Enhanced Data Upload Tool submitted by Grouchy_Carpenter489 to u/Grouchy_Carpenter489 [link] [comments] Thousands of users worldwide of Oracle Fusion ERP use ADFdi and FBDI for data loading or data management generally. Excel has some great features that help to streamline data analysis. There is no argument that Excel is a highly functional tool for organizational data management. Ordinary Microsoft Excel spreadsheets have many limitations regarding data loading to Oracle Fusion Cloud. Excel is great for simple ad hoc calculations, but it needs connectivity features to automate and document its contents, making its use prone to error. Manually keying in data in Oracle Cloud from Excel worksheets or copy-pasting is a slow, time-consuming process that is bound to reduce employee productivity. Accuracy is also compromised, and inaccurate data can cost an organization millions in revenue. Excel needs more automation, so if you handle large volumes of data, there may be a better tool for you. Furthermore, data security is not assured since Excel does not have encryption features. The standard Oracle tools (ADFdi and FBDI) are rigid in nature; the user cannot move columns around or even easily paste data from another sheet to ADFdi or FBDI. The error reporting and resolution cycle is too cumbersome and needs specialized technical knowledge. Why do people still use Excel sheets for data management? ● It’s cheaper For a team that doesn't care about automation, why bother spending on something more costly if they can get away with something that stores data tables? Considering its limitations, is it worth it in the long-run cost? ● Easy-to-use Excel is easy to use. It is one of the basic Microsoft Office tools that most people learn to use in basic computer interactions. Because they are already familiar with it, most people find Excel easy to use and often prefer to do so than learn new about new tools. ● Limited knowledge of what’s available Some people are just stuck in their routines. They need help staying current on the newest software available on the market. If the leadership of a team or members does not take the initiative to look around and find out what the market has to offer, they will be stuck with Excel and its attendant costs when others are enjoying the benefits of more advanced tools. ● Poor experience with some project management software Choosing a data loading tool to suit your data loading needs is a task that should be taken seriously. Many data-loading teams that used Excel have been turned off by their previous experience with data-loading tools. Some tools are cumbersome and difficult to use, others are code intensive and not suitable for most end users, and some may need more features you are looking for. The poor experience is a result of poor customization. Suppose you had a tool that allowed you to use the easy-to-use and familiar Excel worksheet while providing you with advanced specialized features for loading data into the cloud. Wouldn’t that be great? How to make Excel work with advanced tools Working with Excel in data loading does not have to be a slow and cumbersome process that does not ensure the accuracy or security of your data. You can harness the power of Excel and still enjoy using advanced data-loading tools. More4Apps and Simplified Loader are Excel-based data-loading to consider. More4Apps More4Apps is an Excel-based data-loading tool that allows businesses to integrate familiar Excel spreadsheets with Oracle EBS and Oracle Fusion. Its tools work within the familiar interface of Microsoft Excel, leveraging the many features of Excel to facilitate data loading. Training is optional since Excel is the main interface, and end-users are familiar with it. Unlike ordinary Excel spreadsheets, which are limited in scalability, More4Apps empowers data owners to carry out mass data uploads and updates. A plugin must be installed on a PC before you can use More4Apps. The IT Helpdesk needs to be involved in installing the plugin, so only specific PCs can be used. More4Apps sends and receives data from the server hosted by More4Apps. Considering data security, allowing data transfers to a third-party server without ensuring the details are transferred is risky. Robust testing is required with every release of More4Apps update to ensure your data is transferred to a safe place. The IT Security department needs to get involved in verifying the third-party server and plugin. Simplified Loader ~Simplified Loader~ is an Excel-based tool designed explicitly for uploading or downloading data to and from Oracle Fusion Cloud. The Simplified Loader template is easy to use. It includes a toolbar that contains operations specific to the template. The output of any operation is displayed in the Excel template's Load Status and Error Message fields. Simplified Loader Excel files upload or download data from Oracle Fusion Cloud. Simplified Loader’s Excel templates are used either for mass data loads, for example, data migration, or everyday data loading activities in Oracle Cloud. Simplified Loader ensures your data’s security by routing data from the Excel template directly to Oracle Cloud without a third-party server. The Simplified Loader template doesn’t need plugin installation and runs using Macros, similar to how other Oracle Cloud tools interact with Oracle. Which template should you choose? User convenience - Both More4Apps and Simplified Loader provide features that enhance user experience. Most UX features are similar in both products. Since they use Microsoft Excel, additional training is rarely necessary. More4Apps provides a form to input data that is not in the tabular format. Whereas the Simplified Loader provides a single unified sheet to enter data, the same sheet is used to invoke the list of values. Both tools allow you to insert custom columns, hide or delete columns you don't need, and insert formulas you may need for data analysis. You can also analyze or validate data before uploading it. Data Security - Oracle Fusion only allows interaction through APIs. Both More4Apps and Simplified Loader use APIs to interact with Oracle, so the security protocols are the same in both toolsets. More4Apps uses an external system to manage licenses. From the IT point of view, in a highly data-sensitive environment, the IT has to open additional ports to interact with the More4Apps servers to validate licenses. In terms of data security, both toolsets have the same features. License Management - This topic is considerably different in More4Apps and Simplified Loader. More4Apps restricts the number of times an administrator can update users licensed to use the Simplified Loader template, whereas, in Simplified Loader, the Administrator has full control over maintaining the users licensed to use the Simplified Loader templates. Support—Both organizations offer excellent support to users who log defects using the support system. Simplified Loader has a vast library of short videos demonstrating product features and functionalities. More4Apps has recently adopted the approach of video tutorials. Plugin installation - This is a key difference between the two templates. The More4Apps template requires an additional plugin installed on the user's machine. The user will always see an additional toolbar in Excel when working on any Excel document. The user always has to use the PC where the plugin is installed. In comparison, the Simplified Loader Excel doesn’t need any plugin installation on the user’s machine. When the user opens the Simplified Loader file, the Simplified Loader toolbar appears. Users won’t see the additional toolbar when they open any other Excel file. Using Excel parallelly: When using either toolset, Excel cannot be used for any other purposes. The user has to wait until the data is loaded to Oracle. Pricing: Both toolsets offer per-user licensing. More4Apps offers licenses per user by module, whereas Simplified Loader offers licenses per user by Template. License management at the template level gives the administrator higher control to assign the right user to the right template, resulting in purchasing the right number of licenses per user. The More4Apps licenses are considerably higher (more than 5x) than the Simplified Loader licenses. Conclusion Using ordinary Excel spreadsheets for data loading may not be very effective. Excel may have shortcomings, but you can use it efficiently with advanced data-loading tools to get the best of both applications. Both More4Apps and Simplified Loader provide similar features for loading data in Oracle. Both are advanced data-loading tools that make your experience more pleasant and effective. Simplified Loader is more handy as it does not need plugin installation, and the user doesn’t need any involvement from IT to install the plug-in. |
2024.05.13 23:02 Ok_Steak8955 Secondary pdpp
For those who have applied to/are currently in/or even know what this means please help!! submitted by Ok_Steak8955 to uvic [link] [comments] I did my undergraduate here at UVic in sociology and I’m looking to applying for next years cycle for secondary pdpp. Looking at the requirements from A-C, does this mean I would’ve needed to have done history and geography? I am so confused!! |
2024.05.13 22:11 Stunning_Travel840 I (19M) was in a kind of relationship with a girl (19F) in my college.But she cheated on me. What to do?
2024.05.13 21:23 OldBayJ [OT] Micro Monday: Exploration!
TASK | POINTS | ADDITIONAL NOTES |
---|---|---|
Use of the Main Prompt/Constraint | up to 50 pts | Requirements always provided with the weekly challenge |
Use of Bonus Constraint | 10 - 15 pts | (unless otherwise noted) |
Actionable Feedback (one crit required) | up to 10 pts each (30 pt. max) | You’re always welcome to provide more crit, but points are capped at 30 |
Nominations your story receives | 20 pts each | No cap |
Voting for others | 10 pts | Don’t forget to vote before 2pm EST every week! |
2024.05.13 19:08 April272024 What is integration for you?
2024.05.13 16:34 Stunning_Travel840 I (19M) was in a kind of relationship with a girl (19F) in my college.But she cheated on me. What to do?
2024.05.13 14:55 Japi- Kannattaako tehdä oikaisuvaatimus aiempien vuosien veropäätökseen Interactive Brokers osakekauppojen tappioista?
2024.05.13 14:41 not-quite-random Intrebari impozitare 2023 investitii externe
2024.05.13 12:19 hellopriyasharma Best Alphabet Worksheets in Nursery English for Simple Learning
The foundation of early childhood education, particularly in mastering the English language, begins with understanding the alphabet. Nursery English Alphabet Worksheets are crucial tools in this learning journey, providing young learners with the opportunity to grasp the basics of the language in an engaging and interactive manner. This guide highlights top worksheets designed for easy learning, ensuring that each child can progress at their own pace while finding joy in the learning process. submitted by hellopriyasharma to preschoolwithpriya [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/1bw5pmab660d1.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=db1df8f93aa48652e0d4fb561e3b1a9a77622d03 The Importance of English Alphabet WorksheetsBefore we delve into the specifics, it's essential to understand why English Worksheet for Nursery and Pre-school Nursery English Worksheets play a pivotal role in early education. These worksheets offer a structured approach to letter recognition, phonetics, and the development of fine motor skills through writing practice. Moreover, they lay the groundwork for reading and spelling, which are critical components of language acquisition.Key Features of Effective Worksheets
Recommended Nursery English Alphabet Worksheets1. Alphabet Tracing WorksheetsTracing worksheets are excellent for beginners, helping children practice letter formation. They often include dotted lines where children can trace each letter of the alphabet, improving their handwriting skills and familiarity with each letter's shape.2. Letter Recognition WorksheetsThese worksheets are designed to help children identify each letter of the alphabet within a mix of other letters or in the context of simple words. Activities might include coloring, circling, or matching letters, which enhances visual discrimination skills.3. Phonics WorksheetsPhonics worksheets focus on the sounds that each letter makes, a crucial step in learning to read. Activities can range from matching letters to pictures that start with the corresponding sound, to simple sound identification exercises.4. Coloring and Craft WorksheetsCombining art with learning, these worksheets allow children to color letters and related images (e.g., A for Apple), making learning a creative process. Some worksheets also include craft activities, like making alphabet collages, which reinforce letter recognition in a fun way.5. Find and Color WorksheetsEngaging and interactive, find and color worksheets encourage children to spot a particular letter among a group and color it. This activity not only reinforces letter recognition but also enhances focus and attention to detail.6. Beginning Sounds WorksheetsThese worksheets help children connect letters with the sounds they make at the beginning of words. Identifying the initial sounds in words is a foundational skill in developing phonemic awareness.Utilizing Worksheets EffectivelyWhile worksheets are valuable educational tools, their effectiveness greatly depends on how they are used. Here are some tips for parents and educators:
Conclusion: Building a Foundation for Future SuccessNursery English Alphabet Worksheets are more than just paper and pencil activities; they are stepping stones towards literacy and a lifelong love for learning. By carefully selecting and incorporating English Worksheets for Pre-Nursery into the educational journey, educators and parents can ensure that children not only learn but also enjoy the process of learning. Remember, the goal is to foster an environment of curiosity, engagement, and growth, where each child can confidently navigate the path to reading and writing proficiency.In conclusion, kindergarten students can have a fun and fulfilling experience learning the English alphabet with the correct worksheets. We can give our youngest students the strong foundation they need for future academic achievement by emphasizing engagement, repetition, and variation and by utilizing resources like school parent apps for enhanced learning experiences. |
2024.05.13 07:10 Krixwell Homebrew Fabled/Townsfolk: Warden
Warden (Fabled): After an execution by vote occurs, all players vote (no token needed) on whether the nominee should die. If this vote fails, the nominee is instead drunk tonight and tomorrow. If more than one Townsfolk dies by execution, good loses.The Fabled Warden adds a holding cell to the game. Executions effectively become arrests, after which players decide whether to actually take the nominee to the gallows.
Warden (Townsfolk): If you nominate a player (different from yesterday) and they are executed, they do not die, but are drunk tonight and tomorrow.For when you want the jailing mechanic but not the stakes or the publicly obvious total overhaul. It's somewhat similar to an Exorcist with a more public bent, or a Pacifist with more agency but less confirmation. Quite strong, but less overpowered than I expected to end up with.
2024.05.13 03:33 JaneDoeThe33rd Lucien’s Latest Apology
2024.05.12 22:28 OldBayJ [SerSun] Serial Sunday: Void!
TASK | POINTS | ADDITIONAL NOTES |
---|---|---|
Use of weekly theme | 75 pts | Theme should be present, but the interpretation is up to you! |
Including the bonus words | 5 pts each (20 pts total) | This is a bonus challenge, and not required! |
Actionable Feedback | 5 - 15 pts each (60 pt. max)* | This includes thread and campfire critiques. (15 pt crits are those that go above & beyond.) |
Nominations your story receives | 10 - 60 pts | 1st place - 60, 2nd place - 50, 3rd place - 40, 4th place - 30, 5th place - 20 / Regular Nominations - 10 |
Voting for others | 15 pts | You can now vote for up to 10 stories each week! |
2024.05.12 20:31 approachenglish English Grammar Class 6 Topics Syllabus CBSE ICSE (2025)
English Grammar Class 6 Topics Syllabus CBSE ICSE (2025) submitted by approachenglish to u/approachenglish [link] [comments] In the academic year 2025, Class 6 students across various educational boards will delve into the intricacies of English Grammar. Understanding the syllabus is crucial for students to excel in language proficiency and academic performance. Importance of Understanding English Grammar at an Early AgeGrasping English Grammar concepts at a young age lays a strong foundation for effective communication and academic success. Early exposure to grammar aids students in writing coherent essays, improving comprehension skills, and achieving higher grades in exams.Topics Covered in Class 6 English Grammar CBSE, ICSE, Other State Boards (2025)In Class 6 English Grammar syllabi for 2025, CBSE, ICSE, and other State Boards cover the following grammar topics:1: The Sentences 2: Subject and Predicate 3: Nouns 4: Singular Plural Nouns 5: Gender 6: Nominative Accusative Possessive Case 7: Pronouns 8: Verbs 9: Modal Auxiliaries 10: Adjectives 11: Degrees of Comparison 12: Adverbs 13: The Simple Tense 14: The Continuous Tense 15: The Perfect Tense 16: Phrases and Clauses 17: Prepositions 18: Conjunctions 19: Articles 20: Subject Verb Agreement 21: Active and Passive Voice 22: Direct and Indirect Speech 23: Punctuation Marks and Capital Letters Overview of CBSE and ICSE Syllabus for Class 6 English GrammarComparing the syllabi provided by CBSE and ICSE reveals similarities and differences in the focus and structure of English Grammar education. While both boards emphasize language skills development, CBSE tends to have a broader approach, covering reading, writing, and grammar, whereas ICSE places more emphasis on language proficiency and composition.Detailed Breakdown of CBSE SyllabusCBSE's syllabus for Class 6 English Grammar includes comprehensive coverage of reading skills, writing skills, and grammar concepts. Students engage in activities such as comprehension passages, essay writing, and grammar exercises to enhance their language proficiency.Detailed Breakdown of ICSE SyllabusIn contrast, ICSE's syllabus focuses on language proficiency and composition, with an emphasis on literary analysis and creative writing. Students explore various literary genres, practice writing different types of compositions, and delve into advanced grammar concepts.Key Topics Covered in Class 6 English GrammarKey topics covered in Class 6 English Grammar include parts of speech, sentence structure, tenses, punctuation, and comprehension skills. Mastering these topics is essential for effective communication and academic success.Tips for Effective Learning of English GrammarStudents can enhance their grammar skills through regular practice, active reading, writing exercises, and seeking feedback from teachers or peers. Utilizing online resources, grammar apps, and participating in grammar games can also facilitate learning.Resources for Further PracticeAdditional resources such as websites like approachenglish.com, grammar books like "Wren & Martin," and online platforms like Grammarly provide students with opportunities for further practice and consolidation of English Grammar skills.ConclusionIn conclusion, understanding the English Grammar Class 6 Topics Syllabus CBSE ICSE (2025) is paramount for students' language development and academic success. By mastering grammar concepts, students can communicate effectively, excel in exams, and prepare for future opportunities.Get the Class 6 English Grammar Book |
2024.05.12 19:01 lambchopsuey Deconstructing the "discussion meeting" performance - "the staged character of discussion meetings" - illuminates why SGI is failing and how far it has deteriorated
It is at these discussion meetings, then, that NSA gets on with the real work of promoting and securing nominal conversion, of attempting to get recruits to take the first major step toward conversion by agreeing to receive a Gohonzon and to give chanting a try.In those days, the nohonzon was issued up front (for a fee, of course - cash on the barrelhead).
And since gaining converts is, in large part, what this movement is all about, "nothing is more basic to the activities of NSA," as noted in the Winter edition of the 1975 NSA Quarterly, "than the discussion meeting." Or, as one district leader emphasized when discussing the importance of these meetings: "Discussion meetings are indispensable to the spread of the practice and the attainment of Kosen-rufu."If you've ever felt confused at how sitting around someone's living room with the same bunch of losers month after month is doing anything toward the SGI's supposed goals of "world peace" or anything at all, actually, besides wasting the participants' time, I think what's described here will make it clearer what the original intent and purpose of these "discussion meetings" was, AND how far from that the current SGI "activities" have fallen.
The Character and Organization of These Meetings from a Sociological StandpointIt's not enough that the "guests" say they'll try it; by the end of this ordeal, they'll say absolutely anything to get themselves to the other side of that door! What they really want is enough interest and desire on the part of those "guests" that they'll come back - and ideally become regularly attending members (as described in this indoctrinational creative writing fiction where a career Catholic priest is so entranced with the fictional (non)discussion meetings that he JOINS the SGI!! You'll notice that there is never any room within SGI to even mention one of THEIR SGI leaders who joins a Baptist church, for example, much less to celebrate such a stepping-out-of-line. But it's always FINE for other religions' leaders to see the obvious superiority of the SGI, knowmsayin?
Given the purpose and importance of these discussion meetings, the question arises as to how they are organized and brought off in a strategic manner. In other words, what is the underlying strategy guiding this work of securing nominal conversion, and what are the kinds of tactical adjustments made at the line of scrimmage when the plan of attack does not appear to be advancing the group toward its goal of getting guests to agree to give chanting a try.
In order to answer these question [sic] in a sociological manner, let us step out of the shoes of a guest and into those of a sociological [sic] with insiders' knowledge.There's a list of these roles. At the discussion meeting planning meeting, the attendees go down the list and simply plug different members' names into the worksheet.
The Strategy of Theatrical Persuasion. Although members and the movement's literature like to characterize these meetings as being forums for free and open discussion and the spontaneous expression and flow of happiness and excitement, they are a far cry from gatherings characterized by spontaneity and unstructured discussion and interaction. Rather, they are meticulously planned and highly orchestrated meetings that can be best conceptualized, from a dramaturgical perspective, as theatrical-like presentations staged and conducted by a set of individuals (NSA members) who not only work together as a team but whose intimate cooperation is expected and required in order to foster and sustain a convincing impression or definition of the situation in the eyes of the audience (the recruits or guests).
Although the staged character of these meetings is seldom readily discernible to the unsuspecting guest, the appropriateness of conceptualizing these meetings in this way is suggested by the following considerations. First, the purpose of the meeting, as already indicated, is to sell guests on the idea of chanting, to so impress them that they feel compelled to give this practice call [sic] chanting a try.
Secondly, there is a division of labor such that all members have one or more roles to play. These various roles include the leadership role, the role of emcee, a general, overarching supportive role, and several more specific supportive roles, such as the role of giving an explanation of what NSA is all about, the role of a song leader, and the role of giving testimony. And even more significantly, members are provided with fairly detailed instructions, or, in the language of the theater, with scripts indicating what each role involves and how best to perform or play it.
The main leadership role, assumed by the district chief or, in his absence, the assistant district chief, includes, for example, the tasks of leading the chanting in a vigorous manner, conducting the question-and-answer session, meeting with each of the guests, and providing an inspirational role model for the other members. In performing these tasks, the leader is reminded that rather than putting on the air of a great sage, he should make a point of displaying great vitality, warmth, and compassion. Furthermore, he is expected "to be able to give clear explanations of the philosophy and practice," and is instructed to "always tailor his answers and encouragement to the audience."Blanche described how in her first district, the WD District leader instructed everyone that, if someone in the meeting was going on too long or rambling or whatever, that they should just start clapping wildly and shouting, "Congratulations!!" and then the MC would just move on to the next topic on the agenda. Reeeeal "spontaneous" there...
Answers should always be tailored to the audience. If the guests are young, then the answers should include examples they can relate to. If the questions are too mystical or one-sided, the leader must have the wisdom to change the subject or break off the question-and-answer period diplomatically.
The emcee role is also regarded as particularly important, so much so that "the success of the meeting" is said to be contingent on how well it is performed. In fact, "so much depends on the emcee" that the discussion meeting is described for him as "a battleground in which he must struggle to bring victory to the members."Barf. How far SGI has fallen! Now the goal is to see if there's some young teen in an SGI member's family who can be press-ganged to show up and read the agenda - their youth in and of itself is supposed to "encourage" everyone! Forget about all that "struggle" nonsense - they aren't gonna. This illustrates the SGI's current "form over function" approach, in which they just identify someone and pressure that person to do it, rather than the ideal candidate volunteering from a spirit of...oh, whatever - see above paragraph 🙄 Ideally, there would be SEVERAL young people positively brimming with passion and youthful energy who would be vying to be chosen: "Me! Let ME do it this time!" "No! ME!" "Choose ME!!" Instead, now it's just some tired old fart who agrees to do it, just to get this over with and there's no one else.
Specific responsibilities include setting "the gears fo the meeting in motion" and keeping the meeting going in a rhythmical and orderly manner.You have to wonder just how crazy they envision these (non)discussion meetings might go - will a spontaneous rave break out if it isn't carefully controlled? An unpermitted parade? A frenzy of liturgical dance?? WHAT might happen??? Enquiring minds want to know!!
Gendered. Misogynist.The emcee must develop the ability to keep the rhythm of the meeting going by making sure that there are no pauses or interruptions. If someone is causing a disorder, he should quiet the person in a polite manner. If a baby starts crying, he should see to it that either the mother or one of the young women at the meeting takes the child to another room to calm it down.
The emcee is also charged with being "the eyes and ears of the person leading the meeting."Yeah. NO 😄 WOW but it's been a LONG TIME since any SGI sales pitch-based recruiting session - I mean discussion meeting - had any characteristics that would fit the above instructions. Just no way. Not now. Now, it's the same old handful of longhaulers dragging themselves in to go through the motions - as usual. By rote.
Before and during the meeting, he should watch guests, be on the lookout for disruptions, and in general, be aware of everything that's happening. He should inform the person leading the meeting how many guests are present and whether they are young or old, so the leader can set the rhythm of the meeting accordingly.
In addition, the emcee is expected to talk, act, and appear in a manner that displays or exudes strength, confidence, vitality and neatness.This was when a small table would be moved in in front of the person who led gongyo, who would turn around to face the group. This is of course a Japanese norm, completely foreign to Westerners. How many people outside of Japan even have a low table like that, designed for someone who's sitting on the floor??
The emcee must speak in a vigorous, strong and clear voice, but not screaming. The way he sits, stands up and moves the table must display confidence.
It has been a LOOOOOOOONG time since ANY SGI district could insist on these requirements! Now they're just lucky if they can get anyone younger than retirement age to read the agenda off, and the agenda is often handed to them right there at the meeting itself - fuhgeddabout all this "advance preparation" nonsense. Nothing happens at the SGI discussion meetings, so nobody's going to go to this much trouble just because.In fact, he should stand up smartly whenever he is talking. As for appearance, he should reflect the image of NSA - clean and neat clothes and personal grooming.
And finally, the emcee is instructed to have the details of the meeting worked out and the setting in order before the meeting begins....as opposed to showing up and being handed a printed agenda to read off as SGI does it now.
Oh, like any of that's gonna happen! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣The emcee must have a plan for the meeting. He should write up a schedule showing who will give the explanation, what songs will be sung, who will give experiences and so on, and present it to the leader at least two days prior to the meeting. The emcee must prepare for the meeting. He should check to see if the meeting place is clean and neat, that all lights work and there is an appropriate meeting table. Most of all, he should do Shakubuku for the success of the meeting.
As one district chief explained during a planning meeting for senior and junior leaders within the district and which I was invited to by one of my key informants:Wow, huh? It's completely dishonest and oriented entirely at flimflamming and bamboozling the "guests"!
Make sure to tell your members to chant in rhythm with the leaders. There shouldn't be any more than one rhythm. Everyone should be together so that there is unity. And remember to have them support the leader in whatever he says; the guests won't know whether he is right or wrong. So even if you don't agree with what is being said, act as if you do. this [sic] way there is unity at the meeting and the guests will be more impressed.
A fourth indication of the staged character of discussion meetings is provided by the fact that planning meetings are held at both the district and chapter level for the purpose of discussing how to improve discussion meetings and make them more successful. Although rank-and-file members (those who have not attained that status of a junior or senior leader) are not normally invited to these planning meetings, I was able to attend several of them at the invitation of both my district chief and a junior leader who was one of my key informants.SKULLDUGGERY!! 💀
It was during these planning meetings that I became deeply sensitized to the highly orchestrated and dramaturgical character of not only the discussion meetings but of NSA's overall operation.At this point it's important to remember that "dramaturgical" means "relating to the art or the theory of writing and putting on plays, especially for the theater" - it's all putting on a show to manipulate the unwitting guests in order to trick them into transforming into new recruits. It's ALL fake - just a façade to fool the uninformed.
A fifth consideration suggesting that staged character of discussion meetings is the fact that much of what members do and say, both verbally and nonverbally, during the course of a meeting is to appear natural and spontaneous rather than artificial and contrived.They try. Unconvincingly.
In other words, these meetings are not to appear as staged performances or as the product of dramaturgical cooperation. This concern is evidenced by the emphasis placed on exuding sincerity and responding to calls from the emcee and to what the leader says and does with alacrity and enthusiasm. It is also suggested by some of the rituals engaged in by the emcee, as when he scans the gathering after he has called for an experience so as to foster the impression that whom he calls is a spontaneous decision rather than one that has been pre-arranged, as indicated by the fact that those called on are already listed on his meeting agenda and by the fact that members frequently know beforehand whether they will be giving an experience.This fakery apparently was dropped decades ago; in current SGI (non)discussion meetings, not only is the person acknowledged by name as delivering/"sharing" an "experience", but the person often has it written out on a piece of paper they semi-read off.
Only without any special perks or sexiness.But none of this is evident to the guest.
Rather, what transpires - who gives the explanation, who gives testimonies, and so on - is staged in such a way that it all appears as if it is spontaneous and independent of prior planning, negotiation, and decision-making among the members. As a consequence, it seems reasonable to suggest that NSA in general and the district members in particular have something of the character of a secret society.
This is not particularly surprising, however, when considering the nature of theatrical-like teamwork. As Erving Goffman noted in his seminal discussion of this kind of work:This will all be very familiar to the people trying to recruit new suckers into MLM schemes/scams, too.
... if a performance is to be effective it will be likely that the extent of cooperation that makes this possible will be concealed and kept secret... The audience may appreciate, of course, that all members of the team are held together by a bond that no member of the audience shares ... But (the members of the team) form a secret society ... insofar as a secret is kept as to how they are cooperating together to maintain a particular definition of the situation.
The sixth and final consideration suggesting the appropriateness of viewing these meetings from a dramaturgical perspective is the fact that they do not "go on" unless there is an audience, that is unless guests are in attendance.Before Ikeda was excommunicated by Nichiren Shoshu and transformed the SGI into his own personal worship society, there was a certain "rhythm" to the year. February and August were "Shakubuku Months", and there was an "introductory meeting" scheduled every week. If it came to meeting start time and there was no "guest", the meeting was halted and everybody was sent out to try and find something with a pulse to drag in, at which point the meeting would proceed:
When I first discovered this I was somewhat startled, for I had assumed that these meetings were conducted in their entirety regardless of the presence or absence of a new face. But as I learned one evening, this is not the case. Following the chanting session on this particular evening, the leader emphasized that since these meetings were for guests and none were present, we would have to go out and round up one or two. So the members in attendance were divided into Shakubuku teams and sent out in search of prospects. Although three of the four teams returned empty-handed, one had managed to corral a single guest. But one is all that is needed; and so the formal meeting began as usual.For "formal meeting" read "sales pitch". By the late-1980s, perhaps earlier, instead of being every discussion meeting, this format was restricted to the "introductory meetings" during the Shakubuku Months. However, he's describing something that happened every single time. No meeting unless a "guest" was present.
During my tenure as a member I saw this particular scenario re-enacted on four different occasions, and on one occasion we were sent back into the streets three times in succession. Around 8:30 p.m., after the third try and with one guest in hand, the show finally got on the road.The author describes himself as "an active participant observer for nearly a year and a half".
Perhaps even more illustrative of the theatrical character of these meetings and the fact that they are staged for guests is the following course of events that transpired one evening during a meeting I attended:"Vigorous and happy" 🤣
Although no guests were present when the chanting began, a young couple came in toward the end of the chanting session and situated themselves on the floor at the back of the room. But apparently the emcee didn't notice them; for upon completion of the chanting session he didn't jump up and yell out: 'Welcome to a vigorous and happy meeting of the [name here] District of NSA!' But the district leader, who had apparently seen this couple come in, punched the emcee in the ribs and whispered that some guests were present. And so this member immediately assumed his role of the emcee and proceeded as usual by springing to his feet, putting on a big smile, and blurting out, 'Welcome to a vigorous and happy meeting of the [name here] District of NSA!'
In light of the foregoing considerations and observations, there seems to be little question about the appropriateness of conceptualizing NSA discussion meetings as "shows" or presentations staged by the members, who constitute a performance team, before an audience composed of recruits or "guests".This was what was going on BEFORE Dickeda swanned into the US in 1990 and "changed our direction" - because of what Sensei did, the bottom fell out of the discussion meetings. Instead of weekly meetings, Dickeata dictated that these meetings would only happen monthly from now on - and of COURSE Die-Sucky Scamsei's word is LAW in his own cult of personality, where the membership follows a PERSON instead of any "law". Post-excommunication, at the (non)discussion meetings I attended, there was at least one guest every single time, but they never came back. The ONLY person I saw join post-excommunication was a formerly homeless woman with two small children who had moved in with an SGI member (who had unethically selected her at the abused-women's shelter she was living at, where he volunteered computer classes for the residents). She was able to see it didn't work; she ended up quitting.
2024.05.12 14:02 Buster-Baxter8823 "Father" is a label
2024.05.12 10:55 BuckeyeReason Ohio AG investigating alleged ‘hostile takeover’ inside teacher’s pension fund
2024.05.12 06:43 tempmailgenerator Automating Email Notifications in Excel Based on Dropdown Selections
Command/Function | Description |
---|---|
CreateObject("Outlook.Application") | Creates an Outlook application instance for sending emails. |
.AddItem | Adds a new item, such as an email, to the Outlook application. |
.To | Specifies the recipient's email address. |
.Subject | Defines the subject line of the email. |
.Body | Sets the main text content of the email. |
.Send | Sends the email. |
Worksheet_Change(ByVal Target As Range) | Event procedure that triggers when changes are made to a worksheet. |
Dim OutlookApp As Object Dim MItem As Object Set OutlookApp = CreateObject("Outlook.Application") Set MItem = OutlookApp.CreateItem(0) With MItem .To = "email@example.com" ' Adjust based on dropdown selection .Subject = "Important Update" .Body = "This is an automated message." .Send End With Private Sub Worksheet_Change(ByVal Target As Range) If Not Intersect(Target, Me.Range("DropdownCell")) Is Nothing Then Call SendEmailBasedOnDropdown(Target.Value) End If
2024.05.12 03:31 freifraufischer A (not so quick) and Dirty Guide for Four Year Fans of Rhythmic (who happen to be regular fans of Artistic Gymnastics)
(This is a lose adaptation of a very long thread I posted on the bird site. It's meant as a summary so there are things in here that are overly broad but I mostly want to help artistic fans know what is going on in Rhythmic with Paris on the horizon.) submitted by freifraufischer to Gymnastics [link] [comments] So you only watch Rhythmic Gymnastics every 4 years and OMG Paris is in a few months and you have no idea what your watching except dropping things is bad and wasn't this sport like super corrupt? Let's start with the basics. In the ye olden times all female gymnasts used to do exercises with portable and non portable apparatus. So a balance beam would be non portable and things like clubs, or balls would be portable. What we know of as artistic gymnasts competed in team portable apparatus. This video is from the 1952 Olympics and at the .10 mark you can see the Hungarian team which includes the great Ágnes Keleti (HUN) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtZ9t_9O-b0 One of my favorite facts about Auntie Ágnes is that not only is she the oldest living Olympic champion at 103, a holocaust survivor and number 3 on the all time women's Olympic medal list... she's also a reigning Olympic champion as her team was the last to win gold on Team PA before the event was discontinued. A lot of things were changing in gymnastics in the 1950s, women stopped doing Rings, the uneven bars started evolving from just being a set of pbars set to different heights, and they stopped doing exercises with portable apparatus. It was in this period that the sport that we now know of as Rhythmic Gymnastics split off and embraced ways to make themselves different from Artistic Gymnastics. What I want to emphasize here is that Rhythmic is just as "old school" as Artistic. It might be useful to point out here that in a lot of languages call MAG/WAG "Sport Gymnastics" (Russian) or "Apparatus Gymnastics" (many other European languages). In these contexts RG is often called "Artistic Gymnastics" because the sport emphasizes artistry so much more. The idea here is that this is a discipline that emphasizes more musicality, dance, formal ballet, and as a consequence they ban things like saltos. I'm mostly talking to people who are familiar with artistic gymnastics so think of this as "dance elements taken to 11". Broadly a RG wants to keep the apparatus moving at all times as they perform elements, to avoid dropping it but also to avoid holding onto it with an obvious death grip. The ball should for instance sit in the hand, not be squeezed to keep hold. Here is a basic guide to ball handling by a British RGI (Individual Rhythmic Gymnast) and just understanding that basic foundation of handling really goes a long way to explain just how difficult the sport is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3MSLaVO-MM&t=246s They throw the apparatus but your eye should stay on the gymnast not the flying apparatus as they do dance between the throw and the catch. If they catch the apparatus when they can't see it that's extra difficulty. Sometimes really terrible television camera crews will follow the apparatus in the air instead of the gymnast and this is very much worse than when they do face close ups on beam. All of the elements are what is happening UNDER the apparatus during the throw. One of the things I find incredible about rhythmic gymnasts is just how smart they need to be in order to do their sport. We're talking a special and physical awareness that is second to none because they need that catch to appear natural and effortless. A hand should meet the apparatus you shouldn't stick your arm up and wait for it to arrive. You should be in the right place to catch it without having to move unnaturally out of your choreography or you will get a trajectory deduction. As a good casual rule of thumb, if you are seeing them trying hard to do something, something is wrong. In fact, the ability of the gymnast to precisely control those throws means that when they do ribbon at the elite level they turn the air handling off in the arena so as not to influence the 6 meters of flying silk (that's almost 20 feet in freedom units). This adds a new level of awe when you realize that during ribbon qualification at last year's world's in Valencia, Spain it was 35 C (or 95 F). Please think about that later when I show you ribbon routines. And how toasty it will certainly be for athletes in Paris. The apparatus are Hoop, Ball, Clubs, Ribbon, and Rope. Wait... what? Rope?! Yes. So they used to rotate between the 5 apparatus but Rope has fallen out of favor largely because it's difficult to read on TV, though many purists think it's the most difficult apparatus. It's still competed among juniors and here is 2019 Junior Rope Apparatus World Champion Anastasia Simakova (RUS) (now GER) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-G47KnUCZY Another useful thing to know about the apparatus is that the clubs can be connected together or disconnected and this will frequently happen during the course of routines. My favorite weird fact about rhythmic is that if the clubs go out of bounds while connected it counts as one apparatus, but if you yeet the clubs out of bounds while they are separated it's two for double the penalty. No really... I will never not find this funny for some reason. https://preview.redd.it/205fhweiyvzc1.png?width=438&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c1693c4f044588989d107a5effa90dcd02a718f As a note, Ribbon always scores lower than the other apparatus, and you don't just risk dropping it but knots or even tangling yourself up in the ribbon in a kind of sparkly auto-bondage happen more frequently than you might think. RG scoring is fairly complicated but in brief: Difficulty, Execution, and Artistry scores which are combined together to create a total. Execution and Artistry are out of a 10.0. Think of Execution the same way you would in AG, somewhere in the 8s is good. You start to look for something fairly major wrong when you have an E in the low 7s, and anything below 7 for an Olympic contender was a car crash. Like .44 in this video where major Olympic contender Stiliana Nikolova (BUL) trips on the spare apparatus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pbx4R4M3akk&t=44s Difficulty is open ended and is broken up into DA (difficulty of apparatus handling) and DB (body difficulty). If you want a better summary than I could ever give you (if a little outdated because of updates), here is the 2022-24 code in 15 minutes from Clematis on youtube. It was made for a RG point of view but I think if you are used to the WAG code you can probably follow along well enough. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxIlbaiPJWY Some gymnasts (like Nikolova and Darja Varfolomeev (GER)) build their routines on extremely high difficulty while others like Ekaterina Vedeneeva (SLO) and Daria Atamanov (ISR) concentrate on lower difficulty more securely done. Rhythmic Group Gymnastics (RGG) is performed with 5 gymnasts together doing complex interacting choreography and exchanges. The apparatus for RGG changes every few years but always one routine is done with 5 of the same apparatus, and another with a mix of 2. The Paris quad RGG is 5 Hoops, and 3 Ribbons/2 Balls. People who want chaos wish for 10 Clubs but that's not in the cards for the next quad either. If you aren't used to watching Rhythmic I promise you are probably better at spotting when things go wrong than you think. You may not know what it is, but "wait that's not right" comes quickly. Because the IOC hates fun, there are only two medal events at the Olympics, the All Around in RGI and the All Around in RGG. At world championships there is the All Around for both individuals and groups, but there are also apparatus finals. Because there are no apparatus medals at the Olympics we sometimes wont get to see the real masters of a given apparatus. Imagine if you never got to see Sanne Wever's beam because to get to the Olympics she had to be one of the top 24 All Arounders in the world. Which is really an important thing to point out. There are only 24 individual rhythmic gymnasts at the Olympics. That is a TINY fraction of the competitive field. Relative to international competition there will be many highly competitive RGIs left home compared to WAGs. I want to dwell on that point for a moment so I'm going to apply the RGI Olympic qualifying procedure to the Artistic field. Rhythmic worlds Olympic QFers were all non-nominative, meaning the place is awarded to the country not the gymnast by name. If WAG Olympic QF looked like RGI:
Back to the real world there are some heart breakers. There are 4 Bulgarians in the top 12 All Arounders this year. They have 2 spots in Paris. Other countries like Germany, Italy, and Ukraine will be leaving at least one great gymnast at home. I'm going to go through the likely Olympic field, as well as some that will not make the Olympics because they deserve their flowers too. These routines are, for the most part, the their top scoring routines from 2024, or if I thought a 2023 Worlds routine is a better representative I've used that. For the top 5 All Arounders this year I'm showing you a routine on each apparatus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLPt-3rifnA&t=119s By the way, she's 18, just very short which isn't that common for a rhythmic gymnast. Her father was a professional football player and played in the 1986 FIFA World Cup for Bulgaria... continuing my theme of elite gymnasts with international footballer fathers. 😊 Sofia Raffaeli (ITA)
😊 Daria Atamanov (ISR)
Atamanov was on a roll in 2022 as the European Champion (which means a LOT in RG), 2 gold medals at the World Games... and then she broke her leg in warmups at 2022 Worlds. She came back to win bronze in the AA at 2023 Worlds. 😊 Darja Varfolomeev (GER)
😊 Boryana Kaleyn (BUL)
If I was a betting woman I'd say the Olympic medals are going to come from that first 5 gymnasts I introduced. There are others of course but these 5 gymnasts own all the World and European AA medals from this quad. 😊 Takhmina Ikromova (UZB) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chS5Y-8c8do Ikromova owns the 11th highest All Around score of the year so far... her problem is those 5 big names hold the top 10 between them. Still she's the best rhythmic gymnast in Asia and came in 5th at worlds last year. On a good day she could medal in Paris but she may need help. And the Bulgarians are inclined towards helping others medal way too often for the sanity of their fans. 😑 Elvira Krasnobaeva (BUL) Clubs - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lw7_y3Rh50 Remember how limited the Olympic field is? Well this is the 7th best RGI by AA score this year. She almost certainly wont be in Paris because Kaleyn and Nikolova are just better bets. 😁 Elzhana Taniyeva (KAZ) - Asian Champs Quota Clubs - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jb9gZGdUkZY 😊 Ekaterina Vedeneeva (SLO) Ribbon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NByCW_nEUws Bronze medalist with ribbon at 2022 and 2023 Worlds is the beloved veteran finally able to shine later in her career. Think about how WAG fans feel about Georgia Godwin or Ellie Black and mix that with the elegance of an Eythora Thorsdottir. She originally competed for Russia but switched to Slovenia in 2018, in contrast to someone I will mention later Irina Viner did not oppose her transfer. A key difference was that Viner never saw Vedeneeva as a threat to take medals from Russian gymnasts. 😑 Eva Brezalieva (BUL) Hoop - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mTbBZS2TzQ Remember how I said 4 of the top 12 All Arounders this year were Bulgarian? Meet number 4. Unfortunately for her they only have 2 spots in Paris. 😊 Alba Bautista (ESP) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyTRgKgyK6c 😊 Viktoriia Onopriienko (UKR) Clubs - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4icRp-FX5Y Bronze with clubs at 2023 Worlds, this is one of my favorite routines of last year. It also shows what the power of a giant crowd that actually has rhythm clapping unlike some depressing artistic gymnastics crowds. But you may know her from this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOCHFWODAGY 😊 Margarita Kolosov (GER) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCwB_3ESnPQ Remember how I said Germany will have a hard choice, after Varfolomeev they have two very talented gymnasts plagued with inconsistency. Kolosov is likely the one who will win out here (which some may feel is right as she earned the second German spot at worlds however the other athlete wasn't permitted to compete at 2023 Worlds....). I think of Kolosov for her incredibly aggressive towel throwing at the start of her walk out. Every time. 😑 Anastasia Simakova (GER) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OotziO4k34w Kolosov can't breath easy because running neck and neck with her is her club mate Anastasia Simakova but if inconsistency marks both of them it does Simakova more. She had been a Jr. World Champion for Russia and came to Germany (where her parents had immigrated) in 2022. Simakova's family are from the ethnic German minority in Russia and she told Irina Viner that she was going to Germany to get (a very real) back injury treated. And never came back. The Disney Villain of Gymnastics was displeased and held up her country transfer for a year. A stress point is that she didn't immigrate to a country where it would be easier to make the Olympics. She moved to the one her parents had already immigrated to. Viner has allowed Russian gymnasts to leave and compete for small unthreatening countries in the past, but generally those have been "B" team gymnasts. Simakova had far too much success and Germany (and her coach Yulia Raskina) were far to outside of Viner's control to allow it. 😊 Fanni Pigniczki (HUN) Hoop - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsKKiL3kA1Y The most successful Hungarian rhythmic gymnast ever, she won bronze with the hoop at 2023 Worlds. The Spanish crowd gave her a nickname after the motion one makes while making potato croqueta. 😊 Zohra Aghamirova (AZE) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVP7dSfv44k 😊 Helene Karbanov (FRA) Ribbon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwD31PfYp-0 The French were very proud of the fact that they qualified both a group and an individual in their own right and didn't need a host spot. Karbanov doesn't quite have the difficulty to contend for medals but her artistry is lovely and enjoyable. 😊 Bárbara Domingos (BRA) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UD_oAqQINLQ Domingos is pretty decisively the best RG in the Americas right now and I expect insanity when Rhythmic Worlds is held in Brazil next year. One of the things I love about this routine is you can clearly see how they can't grip the ball so the handling has to be precise. 😊 Milena Baldassarri (ITA) Hoop - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6beHGGdPq7M Baldassarri finished 6th in Tokyo and is probably the second Italian but she has a younger potential rival for that spot that is chasing at her heals. 😑 Tara Dragas (ITA) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cto6j-UgN6k I actually think the fight between the Italians for the second spot should be tighter than the German race but I just can't let go of the sense that it will go to Baldassarri. Dragas is young though and surely a name for the LA quad. 😊 Polina Berezina (ESP)
😊 Annaliese Dragan (ROU) Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A5zc1Ts_gM 😁 Wang Zilu (CHN) - Reallocated Host Quota
😁 Aliaa Saleh (EGY) - African Championships Quota Ball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r40wQHtYQBA 😁 Evita Griskenas (USA) - Pan American Games Quota Ribbon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--ergCL_3Ow She is the 2019 Pan American Games AA champion and 2023 Pan American Games silver medalist. She will be the only American rhythmic representation in Paris as the US did not qualify a group. 😔 Alina Harnasko (AIN) Ribbon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YWf8A6Xem0 Harnasko is the Tokyo bronze medalist and without question I think the best non Bulgarian FIG authorized RGI who wont be in Paris. She can not qualify as her only path to the Olympics would have been the European Championships and European Gymnastics has maintained their ban. That said, I don't think even if Harnasko had been in Paris she would have medaled. Having watched her over the course of the season (as well as other Belarussians), it's fairly clear to me that the Belarussians haven't maintained the difficulty curve to stay competitive. That covers the top individuals, there will be another European (not from a previously qualified country) and an Australian in the field. Group isn't my thing and I'm not keeping a running tally of the leading scores for groups so this will be a bit more vibes Israel (2023 World Champions) 3 Ribbons/2 Balls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hVWyjhZzzU I think at the moment Israel is the most likely to medal in group (if not gold). But Group can go south very quickly as seen with the same group doing the same routine at the Palaio Faliro World Cup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Zl0WAhN3CE Bulgaria (2022 World Champions) 3 Ribbons/2 Balls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXYwZmzSLZo But I hear you saying, why do I think Israel has better odds than Bulgaria? They're stunning. And aren't they the Olympic champions? Well yes, A Buglarian group were the Olympic Champions, but this is a different Bulgarian group. They are much younger and the pressure on them is tremendous and cracks show quite frequently. Most tragically at 2023 Worlds. When your 5 Hoops routine is suddenly a 7 Hoops routine as you yeet the apparatus out of bounds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVzWW0ulHFM Spain 5 Hoops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LxSPZAK_Vo China 5 Hoops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wd6wpMmFZo I desperately want the Chinese group to medal in Paris. They're my favs. I'm sorry I can't talk more coherently about groups than I can about individuals. Italy 5 Hoops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e05ezkvFHGg Ukraine 5 Hoops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bUW61a17xU Brazil 3 Ribbons 2 Balls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlE2tP6mVRw This is a very early season competition but it's my favorite mixed apparatus group routine this year and I think showcases how different styles can be integrated into rhythmic. I can't wait to see this routine in Paris. France 3 Ribbons 2 Balls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZu9ZkZNkyQ Yes, this is the second Moulin Rouge I've shown you. Welcome to the Paris Olympics! Mexico - Pan American Games Quota 5 Hoops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-K36uEWicn8 Egypt - African Championships Quota 3 Ribbons 2 Balls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGXCmYIpyAI Uzbekistan - Asian Championships Quota 5 Hoops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGjMF3VIXjQ Germany - Either the European Quota OR the Reallocated Host Quota 5 Hoops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py7M0QKBZ3g There will another European country which will either be whoever wins the European quota or if Germany wins it then AZE I have been salty about the fact that Australia gets a free pass to the Olympics despite finishing 23 of 24 Groups at 2023 Worlds but apparently they have a new group this year who I'm assured is not that bad. Anyway so that's the Olympic field, for the most part, because I'm a structural nerd I'm going to hit on a few other points. Corruption The sport has a terrible and long history of corruption, including judges cheating on FIG exams (you can thank rhythmic for why FIG doesn't like holding online exams), bribery, favoritism, and straight up writing the code of points to favor a particular athlete. I will be honest and tell you that the corruption kept me from giving the sport a chance for a long time and I don't blame you if you find it a non starter as well. It's still a problem but I have hope. There is no getting around that Rhythmic is essentially an Eastern European sport and Russia has dominated for many years in part because of the immense amount of money they spend not just at home but in other federations. One might say that Irina Viner bought herself a sport. Not that it wasn't for sale before Viner. To give a sense of the amount of money involved let's talk about palaces to Rhythmic Gymnastics. Literal Palaces. This is the Irina Viner-Usmanova Gymnastics Palace in Moscow. This is the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan, built in large part for the first lady/vice president of the country whose favorite sport is... you guest it. National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan Just the mention of Baku is enough to send some rhythmic fans into PTSD flashbacks for completely unjustifiable scoring (and terrible camera work and and and ...) . The fact that the arena was built for Rhythmic though, will explain to Artistic fans why the arena can't put both a beam and a set of parallel bars on it's floor space at the same time at the Baku World Cup. The sport also has a vicious history of coaching abuse and eating disorders that I wont defend and I don't think has really been addressed. But the elephant in the room of all of this corruption and abuse is Irina Viner, the president of the Russian Rhythmic Gymnastics Federation. Irina Viner was married to Oligarch Alisher Usmanov, at one point Russia's richest man. He's currently the president of the European Fencing Federation which explains how they've massively botched handling Russian athletes. Her Wikipedia Article. They divorced for financial reasons after Usmanov was subject to many many many sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. His mega yacht is stranded in Germany. Anyway, Irina Viner dresses like a Disney Villain and acts like one too. After she viciously attacked the judges at the Tokyo Olympics she was banned for 2 years starting from the day after Russia's international ban ends. https://preview.redd.it/0l3weeymcwzc1.jpg?width=866&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=960f12a402c0975dba57b994c64a50c826f91fe4 She has at different points told gymnasts that she'll kill them if they try to retire, and pulled Russian support from her own hand picked president of the Rhythmic Technical Committee because she didn't fall in line in Tokyo. The carrot to performing for Viner though is a promise of a marriage to an obscenely wealthy Russian man at the end of your career. Or you know... becoming the mother of Putin's children. Khorkina's face in this picture... https://preview.redd.it/2vv649gscwzc1.jpg?width=2200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5514a3ffe55d47e28834bb3156ed49941b56f7d1 So they're banned and they've dominated the sport for so long surely they're doing amazing things at their domestic competitions now. Well... for values of amazing. Viner has decided to create her own personal code of points which the Russians are now competing to. It emphasizes elements that in previous FIG CoPs caused massive numbers of injuries. Massive scores despite obvious errors and their gymnasts are breaking down physically. They've also brought up a non-apparatus routine setting called Free Hands which is normally competed by juniors... but hey if Irina likes it she's playing in her own sandbox now. Would the Russians be competitive if they were in Paris? Sure. Probably. But maybe not? It's hard to tell when they're playing in lala land and have routines composed for an entirely different code of points. No Russians have applied for FIG AIN status. But here is the best part.... Rhythmic Gymnastics is taking the time they have without the Russians and without Viner and they're fixing as much as they can as fast as they can. The age for juniors was raised last year (something Irina very much did not want) and the 2025-28 Code of Points takes a hatchet to a lot of the difficulty stacking (very broad over simplification) that has been written into previous codes to favor particular Russian gymnasts. They're basically unwinding what she did to the CoP either directly or through her influence. And right now Rhythmic is more competitive than it's ever been. A wide variety of countries are winning medals, and the RGI All Around in Paris looks to be the most unpredictable that it has ever been and much more unpredictable than the artistic all arounds. The biggest looming issue for Rhythmic though is the IOC's clear dislike of single gendered sports. With the introduction of men to artistic swimming it's hard to think that Rhythmic will stay in the Olympics for very long if they don't find some way to include men. There are two competing styles of men's rhythmic but neither has a mass of athletes. The first is Japanese Men's Rhythmic which includes things you normally would see in Artistic. Some argue that it's basically a different sport. Japanese Men's Rhythmic Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D48ZPoY2e2Y The second style is Spanish Men's Rhythmic which more closely echoes the women's discipline. Spanish Men's Rhythmic Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BckY1Glglrg Men's rhythmic faces a lot of resistance rooted in homophobia and I don't know how it's going to resolve. But the IOC is pretty much an unmovable object and they have been systematically forcing gendered integration on single gender sports. If you want to learn more here is a great video from a few years ago about the state of Men's Rhythmic and showing a lot of examples: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNhLauzoYOk I'll leave you off with one last routine. 😑 Taisiia Onofriichuk (UKR) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndz58tmfBVQ Onofriichuk will almost certainly not be in Paris but I feel like her exhausting ribbon is a good way to end this marathon of a thread. |
2024.05.12 00:31 Substantial_Item_828 No, It’s Not Joever: How 2024 Polling Is Underestimating Joe Biden
Note: This essay was written about a month ago, for a school project. Some of the numbers and polling averages may be slightly outdated, but the point of the essay still stands. submitted by Substantial_Item_828 to AngryObservation [link] [comments] Introduction “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.” That’s what the front-page headline of the Chicago Tribune said on November 3rd, 1948. It’s also what the polls had all been saying for months: that New York governor Thomas Dewey would defeat incumbent president Harry Truman and become the next president of the United States. And yet, he didn’t. Truman won reelection in a massive upset, defying the polls. Somehow, Truman had gone from trailing Dewey in polls by so much that cartoons like the following were created, to winning the election. https://preview.redd.it/oqba22kugvzc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=92204f20feee6faea87f731a797760140c4a0814 Truman was a very unpopular president. His campaign was also plagued by third parties threatening to split his votes: Strom Thurmond on the right and Henry Wallace on the left. The way he was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat can’t be described as anything less than amazing. Historians still debate over it, but the most popular theory is that Truman was able to win many voters who disapproved of him because he successfully painted Republicans as being worse than he was. This strategy was aided by Dewey’s weak campaign. Many voters didn’t like Truman, and when polled, wouldn’t say they would vote for him, but when the time came, they held their nose and pulled the lever for the president. The election was a lesson to not treat polls as gospel. Today, the nation faces another presidential election. The Democratic candidate is incumbent president Joe Biden. He’s running for reelection despite concerns about his age and rumors he wouldn’t run again due to it. On the Republican side, former president Donald Trump is the nominee. He faced opposition in the primaries, most notably by former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, but beat her and his other opponents without too much trouble. The election is the first presidential rematch since 1956. Several independent/third-party candidates are running too, the most notable being Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr. for short), nephew of JFK. He’s been polling very high for a third-party candidate, getting double digits in many polls. Biden beat Trump in 2020, but opinion polls have been showing Trump leading Biden, often by large margins. As of April 1st, Trump leads Biden by 1.1% in the national polling average according to racetothewh.com, an election prediction/poll aggregation website. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, so this is a sizable swing right. Trump also leads Biden in all seven swing states. Below is a chart comparing the 2020 presidential election margin and the 2024 polling average in the seven swing states. https://preview.redd.it/9wvdn2yzgvzc1.png?width=631&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9c69e14cedfecc11d866837b9533d3e39a30db0 It seems like Biden’s doomed. He needs to win at least some of the swing states to win the election, and right now he isn’t winning any of them. It looks like Trump is on track to becoming the second president ever to win a non-consecutive second term, after Grover Cleveland. But there’s something else going on. Biden’s bad polling situation seems simple on the surface. He’s incredibly unpopular, having an approval rating of 39.1% (net -16.3%) according to FiveThirtyEight. His bout of unpopularity seems to have started around the Afghanistan withdrawal, although when asking someone their reason for disliking Biden they’ll probably say something about his age or the economy instead. So, it makes sense that Biden would be polling badly. He’s an unpopular president, and people would rather have Trump. But it isn’t that simple. Because looking deeper, there are some things that don’t make sense. Crosstabs of polls showing massive realignments not seen since the Civil Rights era. Other indicators of a president in trouble not showing up. Things that when put together, suggest Biden may not be in as much danger as the polls say. When all the evidence is put together and analyzed, it’s clear that Biden is not doomed, not at all. Biden’s bad polling can be explained by two things. First, bad polling methodology underpolling his supporters. Second, people who are supporting third parties now, but will eventually return to Biden. These two things are both making Biden’s polling look bad, although which one has a stronger effect depends on the poll and the demographic group. Additionally, all the indicators other than the polls, like primary elections and special/off-year elections, don’t show Biden in too much trouble. Explaining Racial and Age Depolarization First, context is needed for the rest of this essay to make sense. So, as was said earlier, 2024 polls are showing Biden doing much worse than his 2020 performance. That makes sense – Biden is less popular, so naturally fewer people want to vote for him. The strange part is what demographic groups Biden is slipping with. Instead of a mostly uniform shift, which would be expected, almost all of Biden’s losses seem to come among nonwhite voters – most significantly black and Hispanic voters. He’s also losing ground among young voters (usually defined as voters between the ages of 18 and 29). The Democratic Party traditionally does well with these groups, so this is of course concerning for Biden. Even more strange is that in some polls, Biden is actually making some inroads among the demographics that are historically the base of the Republican Party – those being white voters and seniors. Looking at the aggregation of crosstabs of polls during February, there are many abnormalities. The aggregation shows Trump making massive gains among black and Hispanic voters (swings of R+28.4 and R+18.5 respectively) but making almost zero gains among white voters (R+0.1, but right under that there are slight blue swings with both college educated and non-college educated whites, likely a product of not all polls recording results for those groups). This is strange, to say the least. White people seem to be perfectly fine with Biden, while nonwhite people suddenly despise him. This phenomenon is called racial depolarization, or racedep for short. Swings among different age groups are also odd. Trump is improving by 16.1 points among voters aged 18-29 but losing 1.8 points with seniors and 4 points with voters aged 50-64. Young voters are much more liberal than older voters. Every opinion poll and election result suggests this. Unless they’ve suddenly become much more conservative, them supporting Trump over Biden doesn’t make sense. Along with racedep, age depolarization ("agedep") is common in crosstabs of 2024 polls. Those are not the only depolarizations supposedly going on, as can be seen in the tweet. Urban and suburban voters moving towards Trump while rural voters move towards Biden. Democrats moving towards Trump, Republicans moving towards Biden. Geographical and political polarization have been increasing in recent years, so this suggests a strange reverse of that trend. 2024 probably won’t be a large realignment, it’s more likely something is just wrong with the polls. Explaining Primaries Presidential primary season has been going on for a few months, after the Iowa caucus kicked it off in January. While Biden and Trump both won their primaries easily, how strong their performances were in different areas can reveal a lot about how certain groups are feeling about the candidacies of the two – like black, Hispanic, and young voters. But first, protest voting has to be explained. When an incumbent president is running for reelection, they usually do not face much opposition in the primaries. Typically, only no-name minor candidates are the other people on the ballot besides the president. They do not have a chance at winning, but they do serve as a way for people who are upset with the president to express it. Sometimes, the “Uncommitted” option is also used to protest. Look back to 2012, when Obama was running for reelection. He swept the primaries, but his worst performances were in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, where he got under 60% of the vote. The four states all had something in common: a lot of the registered Democrats were white conservatives who before 2008 voted Democratic, but switched to McCain because they didn’t like Obama’s dark vision for America. They voted against Obama in the primaries because they didn’t like him and didn’t want him to be the nominee. Those voters would then go on to vote Republican in the general election. The places that swung the hardest against Obama in 2008 were also the places where he did the worst in the 2012 primaries. 2004-2008 swing 2012 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary 2012 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary 2012 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary 2012 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary Now, those four states were already very red even before 2008, Obama was not going to win them and he did not need to win them. But if a candidate is doing badly in a potentially competitive state’s primary, they should heed the warning – or risk losing. Another good example of protest voting can be found in the 2016 Democratic primary. Hillary Clinton did very poorly in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – losing the first two to Sanders and coming close to losing the last. And where Sanders’s support was strongest was in rural areas – also the areas that swung the most towards Trump in the general election. Trump narrowly flipped all three of those states, winning him the presidency. 2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary 2012-2016 swing The polls said Clinton would easily win all three states, while the primaries said she would struggle in them – and the primaries were right. The 2024 Primaries Presidential primaries can give an idea of where a candidate might underperform in the general election, and 2024 primaries are no exception. If black, Hispanic, and young voters are upset with Biden, like the polls are suggesting, then they will protest vote against him. The first primary that will be examined is the South Carolina primary. South Carolina is 26% black according to the 2020 census, and that number is even higher among Democratic primary voters thanks to the racial polarization of the state – Biden won 90% of black South Carolinians in the 2020 election, while Trump won 73% of white South Carolinians. https://preview.redd.it/x2t8cnl3hvzc1.png?width=338&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b5982c343da804a10a1221e623b2de84b2f1b86 South Carolina was also the first primary state (so Biden did not have momentum from winning contests at that point, nor was he the presumptive nominee), and the primary was open (meaning independents could vote), so the conditions for protest voting were as good as they could possibly be. But despite all that, Biden got 96% of the vote. If black people really are upset with Biden, they clearly don’t hate him enough to cast a protest vote against him. And looking at individual counties, there’s not even a correlation between the percent of black people and the percent of opposition vote. Biden got 97% of the vote in Allendale County (73% black, the blackest county in the state) and he got 95% in Pickens County (7% black, the least black county in the state). If anything, Biden did better in counties where there are more black people. And it’s not just South Carolina – in pretty much every state where black people make up a significant percentage of the Democratic electorate, Biden won by huge margins. He got 99% in Mississippi, 95% in Georgia, 90% in Alabama, and 86% in Louisiana. Biden came close to losing a few counties in Louisiana – but not the ones with lots of black people. The counties he did the worst in are heavily white. The same kind of people who gave Obama trouble in the 2012 primaries voted against Biden, too. Evidently, black people aren’t protest voting against Biden. Young voters will be looked at next, using the Michigan primary. Just like South Carolina, Michigan has open primaries. There was an organized campaign for the “Uncommitted” option in Michigan to protest Biden’s policy on Gaza and pressure him into calling for a ceasefire. The Uncommitted option did modestly well, getting 13% of the vote, slightly higher than it did twelve years ago when Obama was running for reelection. The Uncommitted campaign achieved their (unambitious) goal of 10,000 votes, getting slightly over 100,000. Biden got 81% of the vote, while Williamson and Phillips took the remaining 6%. What’s interesting though, is where Uncommitted did the best. Its strongest performance was in Wayne County (which includes Detroit and a few other cities), where it got 17%. Wayne County is home to 140,000 Arab Americans who make up 7.8% of the county’s population, so the strong Uncommitted performance wasn’t surprising. The second strongest county for Uncommitted was Washtenaw County (also 17%), which doesn’t have many Arab Americans. What it does have, however, is the University of Michigan. With over 50,000 students enrolled, it’s one of the largest colleges in the country. Looking at a precinct map of the results for Washtenaw County, Uncommitted did well because UMich students were protest voting against Biden. https://preview.redd.it/nov5qkx5hvzc1.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=cec905bdfdd4fa10be01d03a97a220925d4ffa6d Ann Arbor, the city where UMich is located, had a very high percentage of Uncommitted votes. There’s no doubt about it, college students were voting Uncommitted to protest Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. Looking at college counties in other primaries, there was generally a trend of the Uncommitted option (or whatever name the state has for it) doing well. In Dane County, Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin), there was lots of protest voting against Biden. “Uninstructed” got 15% in Dane vs 8% statewide. “None of these names” did well in Douglas County, Kansas (University of Kansas), getting 14.5% of the vote, compared to the statewide average of 10.3%. And Uncommitted got a sizable 21% in New Haven, Connecticut (Yale University), compared to 11% statewide. There’s definitely some protest voting against Biden by young voters. But remember the reason most of them are unhappy with Biden in the first place: it’s because of Gaza. Trump is more pro-Israel then Biden, so it makes no sense for them to support him. That’s different from Haley voters, who are ideologically between Biden and Trump. Things may be more complicated than they seem, as will be discussed later, but first here’s the analysis of the third group Biden has been slipping with in polls: Hispanic voters. The Texas primary is a good place to judge how Hispanic voters are feeling about Biden. Texas has open primaries, like Michigan and South Carolina. Biden did the worst in South and West Texas. One of the places he underperformed the most was the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). He got percentages in the 60s, 50s, and even 40s in many RGV counties, with his worst performance being in Zapata County, where he got a pathetic 40% of the vote. The RGV is heavily Hispanic, so at first this seems like a validation of the polls showing Trump making massive gains among Hispanic voters – but it isn’t the only place in Texas where Hispanic people live. Biden performed very strongly in El Paso County, an 82% Hispanic county home to the city of the same name. He also did well in places like Bexar County (San Antonio, 59% Hispanic), Dallas County (Dallas, 40% Hispanic), and Harris County (Houston, 43% Hispanic). Looking at other states, it seems like Biden’s RGV performance was the exception, not the rule. He got 81% in Imperial County, California (86% Hispanic); and 83% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona (83% Hispanic). Hispanic voters have been slowly trending towards Republicans over time, so Biden’s performances are even more impressive when that factor is taken into account. According to exit polls, Hispanic voters voted for Obama by 44 points, Clinton by 38 points, and 2020 Biden by 33 points. A lot of the people voting against Biden may be registered as Democrats but didn’t vote for him in 2020. https://preview.redd.it/h35vewo8hvzc1.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c5b78394104a627ae1b8019db62aa1c3a4a1b70 https://preview.redd.it/jlo9nlhdhvzc1.png?width=377&format=png&auto=webp&s=726526e7da2a9c8690ab01e00a12e2e49265445d https://preview.redd.it/l4tremrehvzc1.png?width=458&format=png&auto=webp&s=0744e5c12f7c0c4eb05ec84b59a070174b017b98 Overall, primaries don’t support the polls showing Trump making huge gains among black/Hispanic/young voters. There’s zero evidence black voters are upset with Biden. As for the other two groups, there are some signs of discontent, but not enough to warrant the double-digit swings polls are showing. Biden’s underperformances in college counties/Hispanic counties, when present at all, are usually less than 10 points worse than his statewide performance. And that’s assuming every single person protest voting will go for Trump. If all protest voters really do vote for the other party in the general election, say hello to Biden’s second term, because Nikki Haley regularly gets twice the number of votes in Republican primaries as Biden’s opposition does in Democratic primaries. Even after she dropped out. Midterms, Off-Years, and Special Elections At the same time Biden has been doing well in primaries, Democrats have been scoring wins in special/off-year elections. These elections are historically correlated with the popularity of the president, so they conflict with the polls showing Biden down. Look at elections during the last three presidencies to know what happens when a president is unpopular. While Trump was in office, he was quite the unpopular president, and his party lost many elections because of it. Through 2017-2019, Republicans lost a net 8 governorships, going from 34 to 26; and a net 41 House seats, going from 241 to 200. The only chamber they managed to gain in was the Senate (thanks to a very favorable map and increased polarization causing many Democrats in red states to lose) – but not without losing a special election in Alabama, a deep red state that had voted for Trump over Clinton by almost 28 points. This pattern continues to back when Obama was in office. From 2009-2011, when he was at the height of his unpopularity due to the state of the economy and Obamacare, Democrats lost big. They went from 28 governorships to just 20, 257 House seats to only 193, and 59 Senate seats to only 53. Like Republicans with Alabama during Trump’s presidency, Democrats managed to lose a Senate special election in a state considered safe for their party – Massachusetts, which had voted for Obama by 26 points in 2008. And it goes even further back to Bush’s presidency. Backlash over the wars caused Republicans to lose 6 governorships from 2005-2007 (going from 28 seats to 22), 30 House seats (232 down to 202), and 6 Senate seats (55 to 49). But despite Biden’s unpopularity and bad polling, Democrats have been doing well in elections despite precedent saying they shouldn’t be. The 2022 midterms, which were supposed to be a red wave, were anything but. Democrats flipped a net 2 governorships and 1 Senate seat, and only barely lost the House. The small majority Republicans won has been giving them trouble when trying to govern. Already, one Speaker was ousted and it’s possible a second might be too. More recently, Democrats won the governorship in Kentucky and almost won it in Mississippi, both very red states. They flipped the Virginia state house and won a supreme court election in Pennsylvania by a large margin. Two months ago, they won a competitive special election for a House seat in New York by a decisive 8-point margin. Interestingly, the normal pattern of an unpopular president’s party doing poorly manifested early in Biden’s term. After his approval rating crashed during the Afghanistan withdrawal, Democrats went on to lose the governorship (and state house) of Virginia, and almost lost the governorship of New Jersey. Both states voted for Biden by double digits in the 2020 election. Something changed between November 2021 and November 2022 to cause this shift. It might have been the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe V. Wade and allow states to ban abortion. In several special elections right after the decision, Democrats overperformed massively. For example, Republicans won the special election for Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, which voted for Trump by 11 points in 2020, by only a 5-point margin. The election took place just four days after the Dobbs decision. The Trump-backed candidates nominated in many Senate and governor elections could also be the ones to blame. Thanks to Trump’s endorsement, many extremist candidates won the primaries in key races. They often denied the results of the 2020 presidential election and had other problematic views. Most of them went on to lose the general election, sometimes by huge margins. Below is a table of all the results. https://preview.redd.it/vx1ilmujhvzc1.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=2771b74c5d4257d66b4825078ada46216b0be9bd Whatever the cause, Republicans flopped in 2022 and haven’t recovered since. And it doesn’t seem like Trump will be able to avoid the problems plaguing his party. His handpicked candidates were the ones that did terribly while other Republicans often did well; and the abortion issue isn’t just going away, not to mention Trump’s the one responsible for getting Roe overturned with his SCOTUS appointments. Of course, there’s a counterargument: that Biden is somehow breaking historical precedent, and he’ll do badly while other Democrats do fine. That seems like a reasonable theory, until the fact that Biden vs Trump and the generic congressional ballot are polling exactly the same is considered. As of April 5th, at least. https://preview.redd.it/l0ecq2slhvzc1.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8c231135e068129cc1f9c3e1a3b9b2ce41be3fb Since work on this essay has started, Biden has experienced a little surge of support in the polls. It could just be noise, but it might be something else. https://preview.redd.it/m14gsmjmhvzc1.png?width=1043&format=png&auto=webp&s=43bc8d8146b31f5a613a1e7a4adc4ca30a858750 Biden has also been polling as well as (or sometimes even better than) hypothetical Democratic candidates for president like VP Kamala Harris, California governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. It could be argued Biden is only doing better because he has higher name recognition, and Democrats who don’t know the other three candidates are answering undecided. But Michelle Obama being extremely well-known didn’t stop her from trailing Trump by the exact same amount as Biden in a poll. https://preview.redd.it/7h189dpnhvzc1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=42aa042e9462022d397bbe212c428e41f4d40c99 Democrats are doing much better in actual elections than in polls, and Biden’s polling the same as other Democrats. It stands to reason that Biden would also do better in an election than in polls. The Problem with the Polls While primary and off-year elections suggest Biden isn’t doing badly, they still don’t explain the polls. One theory is that the black/Hispanic/young voters who don’t like Biden aren’t voting in any elections, that’s why Democrats are doing well. Perhaps the biggest proponent of this theory is Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for the NYT. This theoretical group of low-propensity Trump supporters who love answering polls but don’t vote in any elections sounds dubious, and that’s probably because it doesn’t exist at all. Biden’s bad polling is caused by two main things. The first is bad methodology, but before that is discussed, how polls work must be explained. Polls work by contacting a certain number of voters, usually around a thousand, and asking them how they plan to vote. The 2024 options are usually Biden/Trump/Undecided/Other. Sometimes Other is changed to real third-party candidates, like RFK Jr. Polls also ask information on the voter, like their race, sex, age, and region. After data is collected, polls are weighted to reflect real demographics. For example, if a poll’s raw data has 40% of respondents living in urban areas while 60% live in rural areas, and the actual percentage of voters is 50% urban and 50% rural, then the responses of the urban voters are weighted higher. If that poll has urban areas voting 60D/40R and rural areas 40D/60R, then the raw data is 48D/52R while the weighted (and final) data is 50D/50R. This seems like an effective way to avoid bias in polls, and account for lower response rates from certain groups. If rural voters are answering at a higher rate, just give them less weight. If Hispanic voters are answering at a lower rate, give them more weight. The thing is, voters don’t belong to just one group. A person can both live in a rural area and be Hispanic. And while groups (rural voters, Hispanic voters) are weighted, subgroups (rural Hispanic voters) are not. Say, rural Hispanic voters are more Republican than urban and suburban Hispanic voters. Say, they’re answering polls at higher rates as well. Rural voters will be weighted lower in the poll, but that’s just all rural voters combined. Rural Hispanic voters are not weighted vs other Hispanics. That would lead to Hispanic voters in the poll being more Republican than they are in reality. A typical poll has around a thousand respondents, and a margin of error of about ±3%. The sample sizes for different groups, however, are much smaller, which means a bigger margin of error. Let’s say Hispanic voters are 10% of the poll’s respondents, or a hundred in total. That’s a margin of error of ±8%, much larger than the ±3% for the poll as a whole. And if rural Hispanic voters are 20% of all Hispanic voters, that’s a margin of error of ±18%! Small inaccuracies in subgroups can cause a ripple effect that makes the whole poll wrong. Let’s do a simulation to show this effect off.
You guessed it, this is happening in real life. And not just with Hispanic voters, but with everyone. A pattern among 2024 polls is that rural voters are answering at a higher rate than urban/suburban voters. In one NYT/Siena poll (Trump+4), rural voters made up about 35% of the respondents, when they only made up 19% of the 2020 electorate. In another poll by Grinnell College (Trump+7), rural voters made up 27% of the respondents. Voters who said they lived in a “town” made up 17%, and it’s likely at least some of them would break for rural if they had to choose between urban/suburban/rural. Looking at the 538 poll database, a clear pattern emerges. Polls that have Trump leading Biden have a proportion of rural voters that is way too high. Polls where Biden leads Trump have more normal numbers. Rural voters tend to be more conservative and vote Republican, and sure enough, Republicans are answering at a higher rate then Democrats. (scroll to "Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?" for the NYT/Siena poll and the top of page 6 for the Grinnell College poll. Both show more Republicans answering the poll than Democrats.) One pollster, Susquehanna Polling and Research, remarked that Trump supporters seem to have higher enthusiasm than Biden supporters, and so are answering polls at a higher rate. The second reason why Trump may not be winning Pennsylvania has to do with who is answering polls. We suspect because Trump is the only candidate with “enthusiastic” voters, it’s Trump voters in particular who are disproportionately talking to pollsters. It’s the reverse of what happened in 2016, when the phenomenon of “shy” Trump voters meant that many pollsters undercounted Trump’s base of support. Many voters were afraid to admit they were Trumpers back then. Today, we suspect many pollsters are not adjusting their samples to account for this “non-response” bias, as it’s typically called. But SP&R is doing so.Polls also say that Trump voters are more enthusiastic than Biden voters. Republicans are slightly more enthusiastic ahead of November’s general election, edging out Democrats, according to a new survey.Groups like seniors and white voters may not be swinging towards Trump because there isn’t an enthusiasm gap, unlike with black/Hispanic/young voters. According to a YouGov poll, groups that aren’t swinging towards Trump in the crosstab aggregate are also paying more attention to the election (and therefore are more enthusiastic, and answering more polls). When black/Hispanic/young voters start paying more attention, they’ll get enthusiastic and start answering polls, which should improve Biden’s polling. https://preview.redd.it/0899t1ephvzc1.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f9fe91a2d30381a9f08e7e1883b90679aefd6a0 And that rural Hispanic voter hypothetical was based on something real. Rural Hispanic voters were already more Republican than other Hispanics in the 2020 election; and Biden did badly in the rural RGV in the primaries while doing better in cities like El Paso. The difference may be even larger than it was four years ago, with rural Hispanics swinging against Biden while urban and suburban Hispanics don’t. Rural Hispanics make up a small percentage of Hispanic voters (scroll down to "Area type"), so this swing doesn’t mean much for Biden’s electoral prospects. It screws with the crosstabs of Hispanic voters, however. As Biden’s voters become more enthusiastic and the gap closes, polls may start swinging towards him as more of his voters answer polls. There have already been signs of this happening, like that surge in support mentioned earlier. Perhaps it’s because of the recent ad blitz by Biden energizing his supporters? Oversamples, and the True State of the Election Biden voters are not answering polls as much as Trump voters, and this is creating big swings in crosstabs thanks to low sample sizes. Polls with bigger sample sizes would be much better. The margins of error would be much smaller and the crosstabs much more accurate. Unfortunately, it’s too expensive to make polls with huge sample sizes, but there’s still the next best thing – oversamples. Oversamples are polls that poll only one specific group. While a normal poll polls everyone, an oversample might poll only black voters, for example. Because of the big sample sizes, oversamples are much better for determining the voting intentions of groups than just looking at the crosstabs of normal polls. Oversamples can also use more advanced methods of polling to reach people who may not respond otherwise. There are three oversamples that are going to be examined here. The first is by Black PAC, and it’s an oversample of black voters. https://preview.redd.it/epcr7xeqhvzc1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=6938941ae9e6b345778035bfd45f7ceb81aa98ed Trump gets a pathetic 8% of black voters, less than half of the polling aggregate showing him getting 18%. This, along with Biden’s strong primary performances, suggest that the bad polling for Biden among black voters is entirely due to bad polling methodology. Next, Hispanic voters. An oversample of Hispanic voters by Univision shows Biden leading Trump 58-31 (27 points). Again, that’s completely different from the polling aggregate showing Biden winning them by only 6 points. It is a slight decrease from 2020, where he won them by 33 points; but like stated earlier, Hispanics have been trending right for a while, so Trump making small gains among them isn’t surprising. And finally, young voters. Split Ticket, an election prediction and analysis website, polled young voters. They used live text interviews, rather than a normal method like calling landlines. In the poll, Biden leads Trump 35-25, a 10 point lead. Biden is disapproved of by 68% of young voters, while Trump is disapproved of by 70%. Of the three oversamples, this is the only one that lines up closely with the crosstab aggregate (Biden+8). Biden won young voters by 24 points in 2020, so it looks Trump is making large gains among the group. But it’s not that simple. Biden and Trump have a similar total disapproval rating, but the number of respondents who strongly disapprove of Trump is 61%. For Biden, it’s just 44%. This means Trump likely has a lower ceiling of support with young voters than Biden does – it’s hard to get someone who hates you to vote for you. Additionally, young voters who disapprove of both Biden and Trump overwhelmingly prefer Biden to Trump. RFK Jr. actually wins this group, but like all third party candidates, his support is declining as the election gets closer. The combined voteshare in polls for RFK Jr. and Cornel West (a left-wing independent candidate) has been steadily decreasing. 6 months ago, it was 17.9%. Today, it’s only 11.5%. This raises the question of who RFK Jr.’s supporters will break for when they realize he can’t win. https://preview.redd.it/zt0t5ptzhvzc1.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd1f7c717e66e750c57e76eaa617966708ebd222 Based on the approval ratings of Biden and Trump, and the “double haters” who already have chosen sides, it seems like the vast majority of young RFK Jr. supporters will go for Biden. His lead among young voters will only increase as time goes on. Of course, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to run ads like these to speed up the process. Split Ticket also conducted a poll using a more normal method, an opt-in web panel. This poll had Trump doing much better with young voters than in their live text poll. So yes, some commonly used polling methods don’t work correctly! Conclusion Biden has been polling badly lately. He’s been trailing Trump nationally as well as in swing states. Polls say key parts of the Democratic base, black/Hispanic/young voters, are abandoning Biden in huge numbers. But when looked at closely, it’s not so simple. Other signs for Biden are pretty good. He’s been doing pretty well in primaries, and Democrats have been doing well in special and off-year elections. Polls are underestimating Biden’s support due to bad methodology and Democrats not answering polls. Oversamples show Biden doing fine with black voters, and mostly fine with Hispanic voters. The only group he really needs to work on is young voters, by trying to decrease RFK Jr.’s support. So, 2024 won’t be a red wave where Trump wins big. But current signs don’t suggest 2024 is going to be a blue wave either, just another extremely close election like 2016 and 2020 both were. But there’s reason to believe Biden might outperform his 2020 showing despite that. The American public is not very engaged right now, as there’s still seven months until the election, so Trump’s latest ventures with the legal system aren’t on people’s minds. When people tune in more, he can only get hurt from it. There’s also the massive fundraising gap between the two, which Trump is scrambling to close. Here’s a prediction for how the election will actually go (margins are 20+, 15-19.9, 10-14.9, 5-9.9, 1-4.9, <1). https://preview.redd.it/ufw3oxa2ivzc1.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=55a5dcc6c246cb34381165d211b17181717ef196 |
2024.05.11 19:46 nutsbonkers Easily my favorite coffee table book. It never fails to crack me up. The Well-Tempered Sentence, by Karen Gordon.
submitted by nutsbonkers to mildlyinteresting [link] [comments] |
2024.05.11 15:20 poopshoes53 Just screw everything, honestly. Daughter rejected for tutoring because of anxiety diagnosis.
2024.05.11 14:27 DeLaRoka Google Sheets as custom spreadsheet data source for Definer popup dictionary browser extension
You can easily turn a Google Sheets database into a popup dictionary. This allows you to quickly search through it when selecting text on any webpage or PDF document. submitted by DeLaRoka to lumetrium_definer [link] [comments] A spreadsheet serves as an accessible and adaptable database option. It’s faster to set up and easier to manage than traditional SQL-based databases. In this tutorial, I'll guide you through creating a popup dictionary for your own spreadsheet. For demo purposes, I’ll use a modified dictionary spreadsheet for the Yherchian constructed language, generously provided by u/Xsugatsal. First, let's take a look at how exactly all of this will work when we're finished: Google Sheets database in Definer popup dictionary browser extension A little explanation of what's going on in the video:
1. Install the Definer browser extensionDefiner - Popup Dictionary & Translator browser extension has a feature called "Custom source" that allows turning any website into a popup dictionary using only its link. We'll need this to interact with Google Visualization API.Install it from:
💡 On Firefox, you might need to disable Enhanced Tracking Protection. 2. Locate the Custom sourceRight-click the extension icon and select "Definer Options". On the "Sources" page, activate the "Custom" source and drag it to the top if you want it as your default. Then, click on "Settings" to configure it.How to locate the Custom source in Definer browser extension 3. Set up your spreadsheetConlang dictionary basic table structureI’ll work with a prepared spreadsheet that includes four columns:
It's crucial that the spreadsheet is set to public. In your own spreadsheet, you'd have to find and click on "Share" button and under "General access" select "Anyone with the link". https://preview.redd.it/lm1ckhflirzc1.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f8c0ffe9c966bbdfc094d4a8a74956e09e105f9 4. Set the website address (URL)We need to prepare the URL the popup dictionary will use to fetch data from your spreadsheet. Here’s what it will look like for my spreadsheet:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UMifrR60d-6tQ6LoxbaeXlqomaQcNP11FedeGvoOBec/gviz/tq?tq=SELECT A,B,C,D WHERE A CONTAINS "{str}" OR B CONTAINS "{str}"&tqx=out:html&headers=1Now, let’s break it down and see what each part of this URL means and how you can customize it for your own spreadsheet: Gviz link schema 1. Base spreadsheet URL: This is the link to your Google Sheets that is set to public access.
2. Google Visualization API endpoint: Adding /gviz/tq?tq= to the base URL enables querying the sheet using SQL-like commands. You can read the docs for more info. 3. SQL-like query: The SELECT A,B,C,D WHERE A CONTAINS "{str}" OR B CONTAINS "{str}" part is the query that fetches rows where the first two columns match the word selected in your browser. 4. Output format and headers: The &tqx=out:html&headers=1 specifies that the output should be in HTML format and the first row of the spreadsheet should be used as headers. 💡 You can also target a specific worksheet by adding &sheet=SHEET_NAME_HERE to the end of the URL. Type the URL into the "URL" field in the Custom source settings in Definer, replacing the spreadsheet ID and possibly modifying the SELECT query to match your table structure. URL field in the Custom source settings 5. Set custom styles (CSS)At this point it should already work perfectly. But just to slightly improve the visual aspect, let's add some CSS, which stands for Cascading Style Sheets and affects how webpages look. The code snippet below will align the colors of the resulting table with the Definer’s theme. Paste this into the "CSS" field:table, tr { background-color: var(--v-ground-base) !important; color: var(--v-text-base) !important; } table, td { border: none !important; } tr[style^="font-weight: bold"] td { border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(var(--text-rgb), 0.4) !important; padding: 0 6px 3px !important; } tr:nth-child(even) { background-color: rgba(var(--text-rgb), 0.05) !important; }Copy and paste the code into the \"CSS\" field in the Custom source settings Easy-peasy!Now, it's functional AND beautiful. Let's check it out in action:My attempt to write a poem in Yherchian conlang with the help of Definer popup translator that is connected to my dictionary database in Google Sheets Searching the Google Sheets database by typing the word, instead of selecting it on a page Looking up an English word in my spreadsheet by selecting it on a page. Dark theme in Definer. Highlight to define the word on a page using Definer popup dictionary and Google Sheets as a data source. Light theme. Select a word on a page to find it in the spreadsheet. Dark theme. Another example of popup search in Google Sheet database through the definition extension. Green theme. Definer popup dictionary tool linked to a database in Google Sheets. Royal Blue theme. Chrome Web Store Firefox Addons |