2024.05.10 17:41 TheX_0913 Blackberry QNX in 5 out of 6 Chinese OEMs including BYD
https://preview.redd.it/snudl0bscmzc1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c65a91e9448be7adf028a3f1f062cfc43240e99 submitted by TheX_0913 to BB_Stock [link] [comments] Posted and compiled on Augustin Friedel's twitter page. QNX seems to have a large market share. Surprised to see BYD in there. |
2024.01.07 15:31 suhail_ansari Reinventing the Blackberry
2024.01.07 15:31 suhail_ansari Reinventing the Blackberry
2023.05.09 08:28 Suitable_Custard_542 AIoT Platform Market Size 2023 Industry Recent Developments and Latest Technology
2023.02.04 01:23 SurveyPsychological6 Quantum Computing Stocks Part 1
2022.11.13 01:47 Working-Usual-2699 Blackberry Kopi
submitted by Working-Usual-2699 to blackberry [link] [comments] |
2022.08.20 21:14 Laser_3 A Complete Guide to Expeditions (PTS)
2022.02.16 17:22 Tradingjoe10 PPGH Gogoro/GGR Leadership & Investors
*This part of PPGH Gogoro/GGR Part 1 post\* submitted by Tradingjoe10 to u/Tradingjoe10 [link] [comments] LeadershipManagement Team Experiencehttps://preview.redd.it/lokhaaibu7i81.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=b157aaf730d23ad523b2301ed9de22ba4cd28675 Gogoro has assembled a seasoned management team with deep experience in technology, consumer brands, and the automotive sector in Asia and globally. The management team is led by Horace Luke who helped engineer some of Microsoft’s most important franchises for over 10 years before transforming HTC into a global smartphone leader as chief innovation officer. The management team is rounded out by executives with significant industry experience from companies such as Intel, Amazon, Nike, Mediatek, Ford, Toyota and IKEA, among others. Gogoro’s board includes seasoned executives and recognized industry leaders in their respective fields. Gogoro Horace Luke - Founder and CEO Horace Luke is a co-founder and chief executive officer at Gogoro where he is responsible for the company’s corporate strategy, product development and the go-to-market and commercialization of its products and services. Previously, Horace served as chief innovation officer at HTC, where he played an instrumental role in leading the company's transformation from a white label hardware manufacturer to one of the most desirable and innovative mobile phone brands in the world. Prior to HTC, Horace spent ten years at Microsoft, where he led product ideation and brand development for a variety of Microsoft's most important franchises including the first generation Xbox, Windows XP and Windows Mobile. Horace also served at Nike where he played a key role in the brand development across a number of progressive brands. Bruce Aitken - Chief Financial Officer Bruce Aitken has served as our Chief Financial Officer since June 2018. Prior to joining Gogoro, Mr. Aitken served as General Manager of Kindle/Devices, China for Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) from October 2016 to April 2018. Prior to that, Mr. Aitken held various leadership positions at Intel Corporation (Nasdaq: INTC) from June 1996 to October 2016, most recently serving as Director of China Finance and Director of China Strategy. Mr. Aitken holds a M.B.A. from the University of Oregon, Charles H. Lundquist College of Business, a J.D. from the University of Oregon School of Law and a B.A. in Business Administration from Oregon State University. GM, Kindle/Devices and Amazon Reading, China Amazon 2016-2018 Intel Corporation Director of China Finance, Director of China Strategy Ming-I Peng - Chief Product Officer Ming-I Peng has served as our Chief Product Officer since May 2019 and Vice President of Marketing from April 2018 to May 2019. Prior to joining Gogoro, Mr. Peng served as Marketing Director at MediaTek Inc. (TPE: 2454) from November 2016 to March 2018. Prior to that, Mr. Peng served as Senior Director of Greater China Marketing and China Distribution Sales at BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB) from 2012 to 2013 and as Senior Director of Global Retail Strategy at HTC Corporation (TWSE: 2498) from April 2011 and September 2011. Prior to that, Mr. Peng held positions at Nokia (China) Investment Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Nokia, Inc. (NYSE: NOK), Inventec Corporation (TPE: 2356), Volvo Cars Taiwan, Microsoft Taiwan Corporation, a subsidiary of Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Apple Computer Asia Inc., a subsidiary of Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL). Mr. Peng holds a B.S.C. in Mathematics from the National Taiwan University. Alan Pan - General Manager of Gogoro Network Alan Pan has served as General Manager of Gogoro Network since October 2018. Mr. Pan is responsible for Gogoro Network’s business, including the establishment, growth and operations of Gogoro Network in Taiwan, as well as its expansion beyond Taiwan. Prior to that, Mr. Pan served as Vice President of Gogoro Network from October 2015 to September 2018. Mr. Pan has also served as Branch Manager of the Taiwan Branch of Gogoro Network (Cayman Islands), a subsidiary of Gogoro, since February 2016 and as Branch Manager of France Branch of Gogoro Network B.V., a subsidiary of Gogoro, since April 2021. Mr. Pan holds an M.B.A. from The University of Texas at Arlington and a Bachelor degree in Management Information Systems from Chung Yuan Christian University. Pass Liao - General Manager of Gogoro Solutions Pass Liao has served as the General Manager of Gogoro Solutions since July 2019. Mr. Liao is responsible for our PBGN program, a program focused on fostering a new range of electric vehicles that integrate with the Gogoro Network from a variety of vehicle makers. Prior to that, Mr. Liao served as our Vice President of New Product Development from 2015 to June 2019, and as our Senior Director of Quality from 2013 to 2015. Prior to joining Gogoro, Mr. Liao served as a TQE Leader, Asia, at IKEA from 2010 to 2013. Mr. Liao holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from National Taiwan Ocean University. Board of Directors Michael Splinter Michael Splinter has served on our board of directors since July 2018. Mr. Splinter has served as the Chairman of Nasdaq, Inc. (Nasdaq: NDAQ) since May 2017 and has served on the board since 2008. Mr. Splinter has also served on the board of directors of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited (NYSE: TSM) since June 2015. Mr. Splinter has served as General Partner, Business and Technology Consultant and Co-Founder of WISC Partners LP since December 2015. Mr. Splinter has served as the Owner of MRS Business and Technology Advisors since September 2015. Mr. Splinter has served on the board of Kioxia since July 2018. He served as Chief Executive Officer of Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) from 2003 to 2015, and as its Chairman of the board from 2009 to 2015. Mr. Splinter holds a B.S. in Electrical and Electronics Engineering, a M.A. in Electrical Engineering, and an honorary Ph.D. in Engineering, all from the University of Wisconsin Madison. Hui-Ming Cheng Hui-Ming “HM” Cheng has served on our board of directors since 2013. Mr. Cheng served as President and General Manager of Walsin Lihwa Corporation (TPE: 1605) from 2011 to June 2019 and as a member of its board of directors from 2014 to May 2020. Mr. Cheng previously served as Chief Financial Officer at HTC Corporation (TWSE: 2498) from 2006 to 2010. Prior to HTC, Mr. Cheng served as Chief Financial Officer of Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. (TWSE: 3045), Chief Financial Officer of Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (TPE: 2881), and Vice President of Finance at Winbond Electronics Corp (TPE: 2344). Mr. Cheng has served on the board of directors of KHL Venture Capital Co., Ltd. since May 2020, KHL IB Venture Capital Co., Ltd. since May 2020, KHL IV Venture Capital Co., Ltd. since April 2019, KHL V Venture Capital Co., Ltd. since August 2021, ACME Electronics Corporation (TPEX: 8121) since June 2020 and Ganso Co., Ltd. (SHA: 603886) since January 2019. Mr. Cheng holds an M.B.A. from Indiana University Bloomington, a graduate degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of California Los Angeles and an undergraduate degree from National Taiwan University. In 2002, he was honored as “the Best Chief Financial Officer in Taiwan”. Ming-Shan Lee Ming-Shan Lee (Sam) has served on our board of directors since November 2019. Mr. Lee is the founder of MagiCapital Management Ltd. and has served as its Chief Executive Officer since 2011. He is a seasoned private equity investor with over 20 years of experience, starting his professional career as a management trainee of CitiBank, a subsidiary of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), then the Vice President of Investment Banking of JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), and the Executive Vice President and Head of International Business Development of Great China of Yuanta Securities, a subsidiary of Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Limited (TPE: 2885). Mr. Lee has served on the board of directors of Bafang Yunji International Co Ltd (TT: 2753) since 2013, Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. (TT: 8464) since 2015, Epic Wise Ltd. since 2017, DFI Inc (TT: 2397) since March 2020, ILI Technology Corp, a subsidiary of MediaTek Inc. (TPE: 2454) since December 2020 and Shanghai Huamer Foods, Co., Ltd since July 2020. Mr. Lee holds a B.A. in Business from Soochow University and a M.B.A. from National Chengchi University. Yoshi Yamada Yoshihiko Yamada has served on our board of directors since November 2019. Mr. Yamada has served on the board of Japan Communications Inc. (TYO: 9424) since June 2016. From November 2017 to July 2019, Mr. Yamada served as Vice President of Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada (Nasdaq: TSLA). Prior to that, Mr. Yamada served as EVP of Panasonic Corporation (TYO: 6752) from June 2014 to June 2016 and as a member of its board of directors from June 2010 to June 2016. Mr. Yamada received a B.A. in Economics from Keio University. Poema Global Holdings Corp (PPGH) Homer Sun - Chief Executive Officer at Poema Global Homer Sun is the Chief Executive Officer of Poema Global. Mr. Sun is a seasoned private equity investor and M&A practitioner with over 25 years of experience. Mr. Sun was formerly the Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Private Equity (‘‘MSPE’’) Asia, a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley and a member of the Firm’s Global Private Credit & Equity Executive Committee. While leading MSPE Asia over 14 years, Mr. Sun managed and fully invested three Pan-Asian funds totaling $3.7 billion of capital deployed across approximately 60 buyout and growth investments. Mr. Sun’s private equity investing led to Asian Venture Capital Journal naming him ‘‘China Private Equity Professional of the Year’’. Prior to MSPE Asia, Mr. Sun spent 10 years as an M&A banker at Morgan Stanley Investment Banking Division and as an M&A lawyer at Simpson Thacher & Bartlett. During the course of his career, Mr. Sun has negotiated, structured and led dozens of merger, acquisition and divestiture transactions around the world. These M&A transactions have involved both public and private company deal processes and have primarily been cross-border in nature. MARC CHAN - President Marc Chan is the President of Poema Global. Mr. Chan is a serial entrepreneur, manager and investor with over 35 years of experience. Currently, he serves as the Executive Director of Amprion Inc., where he is actively involved in technology and product roadmaps, services positioning, market strategies and key management hiring. In 2000, he co-founded the networking equipment provider Harbor Networks, which was acquired by a large strategic investor. Prior to Harbor Networks, he founded Huacomm, a telecom and networks system integration firm in 1997 and continues to serve as an Executive Director where he is involved with business operations as well as marketing and distribution channel strategies. In addition, Mr. Chan serves as an advisor to several global private equity funds, including the Limited Partner Advisory Committee of Princeville Capital. He has 20 years of investment experience across numerous firms as a lead and core strategic advisor, including ArcSoft Inc. (SHA: 688088, Internet & Software) and OM Holdings Ltd. (ASX: OMH, Advanced Materials). Joaquin Rodriguez Torres - Co-Chairman Joaquin Rodriguez Torres is the Co-Chairman of Poema Global and the Co-Founder of Princeville Capital. An experienced corporate finance advisor and investor with over 20 years of experience in the technology sectors across Asia, U.S. and Europe. Mr. Rodriguez Torres’ advisory clients include leading technology companies, such as Alibaba, Cisco Systems, MercadoLibre, NXP Semiconductors, TAL Education, Tencent and Xiaomi, among others. He has advised on many award-winning transactions throughout his career, as well as on SPAC IPOs and successful subsequent mergers. Currently, he is a member of the board of directors in a voting or an observer or advisory capacity at several technology companies, including Cue & Co., Doctor on Demand, Hipac, Remitly and Versa Networks. Mr. Rodriguez Torres was formerly a managing director at Deutsche Bank in Silicon Valley and Asia for 11 years, holding various leadership roles, including the Head of Technology, Media and Telecom in Asia and a member of the Corporate Finance Advisory Board. Prior to moving to Asia in 2008, he spent eight years in Silicon Valley at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers, advising leading technology companies. Throughout his career, Mr. Rodriguez Torres has executed over 120 corporate finance transactions globally with an aggregate value of more than $125 billion, including raising more than $30 billion in 25 global IPOs. Prior to moving to the U.S. in 1998, Mr. Rodriguez Torres founded and led multiple tech start-ups in Latin America. He holds a B.S. with honors from Universidad Catolica Argentina and an M.B.A. with honors from the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. He is also currently the vice-chairman of the Global Advisory Council at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. Mr. Rodriguez Torres is fluent in English, Spanish and Portuguese. InvestorsGogoro is backed by world-class investors: Samuel Yin - Dr. Samuel Yin is an investor in Gogoro. As one of Asia's most successful entrepreneurs, Dr. Yin’s diverse business ventures include retail, sustainable technology, healthcare, financial services, property development and textiles. Dr. Yin’s recent achievements include the successful expansion of his hypermarket chain RT-Mart into China and the successful acquisition and growth of Nan Shan Life Insurance (AIG) in Taiwan.Panasonic - Panasonic is a strategic partner and investor in Gogoro. Panasonic is a worldwide leader in the development and engineering of electronic technologies and solutions for customers in residential, non-residential, mobility and personal applications. Since it's founding in 1918, the company has expanded globally and now operates 468 subsidiaries and 94 associated companies worldwide. Generation Investment Management LLP - Generation Investment Management LLP is dedicated to long-term investing, integrated sustainability research, and client alignment. It was founded with strong conviction for how sustainability risks and opportunities directly affect long-term business profitability. It is an independent, private, owner-managed partnership established in 2004 and headquartered in London, with approximately $17 billion in assets under management. Its chairman is former Vice President of the United States Al Gore and its senior partner is David Blood. The Growth Equity strategy invests in businesses that will help accelerate the transition to a sustainable, low carbon economy. Temasek (Singapore sovereign wealth fund) - Incorporated in 1974, Temasek is an investment company headquartered in Singapore. Supported by 10 offices internationally, Temasek owns a S$275 billion (US$196b, €184b) portfolio as at 31 March 2017, mainly in Singapore and Asia. Its portfolio covers a broad spectrum of industries: financial services; telecommunications, media & technology; transportation & industrials; consumer & real estate; life sciences & agriculture; as well as energy & resources. ENGIE - ENGIE is committed to taking on the major challenges of the energy revolution, towards a world more decarbonized, decentralized and digitized. The Group aims to become the leader of this new energy world by focusing on three key activities for the future: low carbon generation in particular from natural gas and renewable energy, energy infrastructure and efficient solutions adapted to all its customers (individuals, businesses, territories, etc.). Innovation, digital solutions and customer satisfaction are the guiding principles of ENGIE’s development. ENGIE is active in around 70 countries, employs 150,000 people worldwide and achieved revenues of €66.6 billion in 2016. The Group is listed on the Paris and Brussels stock exchanges (ENGI) and is represented in the main financial indices. Sumitomo Corporation (Japanese conglomerate) - Sumitomo Corporation (“SC”) is a leading Fortune 500 global trading and business investment company with 107 locations in 65 countries and 22 locations in Japan. The entire SC Group consists of more than 800 companies and nearly 70,000 personnel. SC conducts commodity transactions in all industries utilizing worldwide networks, provides related customers with various financing, serves as an organizer and a coordinator for various projects, and invests in companies to promote greater growth potential. SC’s core business areas include Metal Products, Transportation and Construction Systems, Environment and Infrastructure, Media, Network, Lifestyle Related Goods and Services, Mineral Resources, Energy, and Chemical and Electronics. Engine No. 1 - Engine No. 1 is an investment firm purpose-built to create long-term value by driving positive impact through active ownership. The firm also will invest in public and private companies through multiple strategies. Engine No. 1 is an American impact investing hedge fund. It attracted attention with its campaign to replace four members of ExxonMobil's board of directors despite owning only 0.02% of the company's shares. The fund was founded in December 2020 and its most recent 13F filing indicated that it had $430 million in assets under management. Jennifer Grancio is the fund's chief executive officer and Christopher James its executive chairman. As of October 2021, the fund employed 39 staff. Fuh Hwa Investment Trust (a large private equity fund in Taiwan) - Fuh Hwa Securities Investment Trust was founded in 1997, established the Taiwan-second asset management companies. The original major shareholder Fuh Hwa Securities finance companies, banks and Watson Ruentex Group. Set up for the purpose of standing in the investor's standpoint, to provide professional and innovative financial instruments and long-term stable investment approach, to find the world's best investment opportunities, first-class talent to assist investors to practice financial goals. Taiwan government’s National Development Fund. Disclosure: Holding 85,000 PPGH Warrants - 02/15/2022 Disclaimer: Not financial advice |
2021.09.08 22:32 CliffTruxton The Swann Street Incident: Deduction Table
Because... | We can deduce... |
---|---|
The pullout couch was still neatly made and turned down... | ...it was already made and Robert was not in bed when attacked. If the sheets were disturbed then they would not have remade the bed before putting him in it. If they started doing so, it would have occurred to them that this is not how a bed would look if someone were killed while sleeping in it, and that they were choosing to do something that would look more suspicious. Disturbed sheets would have helped the scene look better, but it's more understandable for them to not think of that at the time than it is for them to deliberately make their fake crime scene look worse. We can deduce from this that whatever happened, it probably didn't happen in the guest room bed. He was laid there by someone else. |
Robert had his mouthguard in, and his wife confirmed he always put his mouthguard in last before going to sleep... | ...Either Robert put the mouthguard in by himself, or it was put there by someone who knew him very well and was familiar with his sleeping habits. Someone who didn't know him very well would not have known to put it in. One person who might be familiar with his sleeping habits is Joe Price, who mentioned in interviews that Robert slept in his dorm room at times in college. |
The autopsy indicates Robert was received without his street clothes, which means the medical examiner never saw his shirt.. | ...the medical examiner had no reason to think Robert's cause of death was anything other than the stab wounds, even though the shirt suggests at least one other possibility. |
There was very little blood on Robert or on the bed or generally in the bedroom... | ...Robert was not stabbed to death in the bedroom. If he'd been stabbed to death in the bedroom, there would have been an unbelievable amount of blood, even if he hadn't struggled. He'd have been lying in a damn kiddie pool full of blood. Everyone else present would be covered as well. |
The alignment of the stab wounds has the blunt end at 4 and the sharp end at 10... | ...He was not stabbed overhand by someone facing him. They may potentially have either held the knife in an unorthodox fashion, or they may have driven the knife in while standing at his right shoulder, with Robert lying on his back. |
There was an unfinished bottle of wine in the downstairs kitchen; and because the autopsy showed Robert as having no alcohol in his blood... | ...The three men had had some wine with dinner as they'd told police, but Robert didn't have anything to drink. |
Victor went on record as saying Joe called the cable company shortly after 22:00 to get Bravo back so he could watch Project Runway... | ...That phone call probably did happen. Victor made a statement that could be verified by an uninvolved third party so it's very likely that it happened the way he's describing. Otherwise the cable company could prove he's lying. Even if police were to miss that, or not verify it, it still would be an unnecessary embellishment for Victor to make, unless it really did happen. |
The call to get Bravo back so they could watch Project Runway probably really did happen... | ...It's likely that Victor really did want to watch Project Runway, so that's probably what he did, which puts Victor in the master bedroom until at least 23:00. |
Victor was probably upstairs watching Project Runway until 23:00, and because Ward and Price both give specific details of an unexceptional conversation hanging out in the kitchen... | ...Ward and Price are broadly telling the truth that they were the ones who greeted Robert when he arrived. Furthermore, they probably really did hang out in the kitchen, at least for a short while. Generally if I were trying to get three people to keep a story straight, I'd want them all to do as little improvisation as possible, so our story would ideally match reality in every place where we don't have to lie. |
Robert's Blackberry showed email drafts including one to his wife at 23:05 indicating he'd just showered and was going to bed, and another email draft at 23:07 confirming lunch plans with a colleague at Radio Free Asia, neither of which were sent... | ...these emails probably really were typed by Robert. Without looking at the text of the emails and having a baseline of his typing style to compare it to, it's hard to say for sure. I might feel differently if the email to his wife were the only one, since it could suggest a murderer who's trying to create a false timeline and make it seem like he was alive longer than he really was. But the second one, confirming a lunch date, seems overmuch. A single email is already risky, and would have been sufficient for that purpose. It's such a weirdly specific thing I'm inclined to think it's true. I'm not as solidly confident about this one as the other deductions - call it a strong leaning. But given everything else, I think it lines up. |
These emails probably really were typed by Robert... | ...we can narrow the timeline down even further. Since the scream happened between 23:00 and 23:30, and we can safely assume the scream was tied to Robert's death in some way, we now know that either he did not type those emails, or he did, and if so then he was dead no more than 23 minutes after typing the second one. If Robert really typed those emails, then the timeline in which the men had to operate is not 79 minutes. It's 42. |
Robert probably did type the emails... | ...Up until the point when everyone claims to have gone to bed at around 23:00, the evening probably happened the way everyone's describing. Victor was upstairs. Joe and Dylan met Robert downstairs. They chatted in the kitchen for a bit. They went upstairs. Robert took a shower, as shown in the email. Victor's story bears this out because he mentions Joe coming upstairs at about 22:50 and says Joe caught the end of Project Runway, which would be a dangerous embellishment if he hadn't - the whole thing could come unraveled if anyone asked Joe about an episode he hadn't really seen any of. Then Robert, freshly showered, did something that did not involve going to bed in the guest room. |
There was very little blood outside the bedroom, either, and because law enforcement turned the place upside down searching for evidence, and because it would be very farfetched for three people to stab him in the chest then move him without getting blood everywhere which would have been hard to clean up completely in the tight 79-minute timeframe, and because the slits on his shirt matched the slits in his body and it would be a lot of work to line up those slits artificially... | ...Even though Robert was not stabbed to death in the bedroom, he was stabbed in the bedroom. The reason there was so little blood was not that he'd been cleaned, because his shirt would look very different if he had, and there'd be blood elsewhere in the house. Robert Wone was already dead when the knife went in. |
In the autopsy, Robert was observed with petechial hemorrhaging in both eyes... | ...If the stabbing wasn't the cause of death, asphyxiation was. |
There are no ligature marks; and because Robert's hyoid bone is intact; and because there are no marks at all consistent with strangulation... | ...If Robert died by asphyxia, it was from something that didn't leave marks. |
Electroejaculation with a consumer-grade electro-stimulation device usually takes a period of buildup; and because, as laid out in a previous installment, it's already unlikely that the three men's plans for that night had included sedating and sexually assaulting an unwilling guest... | ...If the ErosTek kit was used that night, it wasn't used to force a chemically paralyzed man to ejaculate. Not only does this not fit the timeline, it's an absurd thing for someone to do. If these three men are amoral, sadistic rapists, why do they care if their victim gets off? In case you're wondering on what basis I'm asserting that electroejaculation usually takes a little while, by the way, the answer is that a lot of the people who play with this kind of thing are considerate enough to record it and put it up on the internet so it's not hard to get a baseline of what this kind of play usually looks like and what's normal for it. It looks like they're having a whale of a time, usually. I trust you to be able to search it out without my help if you're wanting to see for yourself. A browser with incognito mode might be worth considering, depending on what you're like. No judgment. |
Victor made the 911 call from the third floor, and they all agree Joe told him to do that... | ...Joe had Victor go up a flight of stairs and call 911 from the third floor, even though there was a phone within reach in the office/guest room, and even though in the version of events the men gave, there was nothing stopping Joe from making that phone call himself. In fact, Joe would arguably have been a better candidate to make that call since Victor is audibly losing it on the recording, and in their version of events, Joe had some presence of mind. From this, we can see the possibility that there was some reason Joe did not call 911 himself. Either he was in the middle of something, or he didn't believe he could be convincing. Or both. |
Emails between Joe and Dylan reveal that Joe was concerned about Dylan's flagging attraction to him; and because emails between the two also talk about meeting up with a third, which is something Dylan finds scary but worth trying; and because Joe's Alt profile lists his interests and mentions that he's part of a couple looking for a third; and because that same profile lists their interests which include "CBT, TT, feet, ass-play, discipline, light bondage, dog training and fetish wear;" and because Dylan had a massive collection of BDSM gear, toys, and books... | ...Joe and Dylan were seeking a third to engage in BDSM scenes with, at around the time of the incident. Furthermore, we can also deduce that the primary driver of the search was Joe, who had emailed Dylan about some potential candidates (who'd emailed him from Alt) as recently as July 9th. |
Joe and Dylan's emails contain text where Joe suggests meeting potential thirds at their place or at a bar, and when talking about timeframes in that July 9th email, Joe says, "I would think while Vic is gone, maybe next Thursday evening?"... | ...Optimal conditions for Joe and Dylan bringing a third man into their home for BDSM play were nights when Victor was not home. As noted in The Facts of the Case, they weren't sneaking around or going behind Victor's back, it was just more their thing than his, and given the choice, they'd have wanted to do it on a night when they could have the place to themselves. Coincidentally, on the night of the 2nd, Victor returned home earlier than expected. He'd been traveling and wasn't supposed to get home until late that night. |
One of the objects taken into evidence was a partially disassembled rimming stool (basically a camp toilet without a bottom that allows access for analingus)... | ...There's nothing completely solid we can deduce from this but the evidence list specifies that it was partially disassembled and that seems unusual to me. This is a piece of sex furniture. If one takes it apart for storage, why only take it apart a little? If someone started disassembling it, but didn't finish, did something interrupt them? But we can certainly deduce that kink play between Dylan and/or Joe may have involved a rimming stool, and this is supported by Joe's Alt profile which specifies that he's into rimming. In other words, kink play with Joe and/or Dylan may have involved one person sitting on another's face. |
Among the BDSM objects taken into evidence were hoods, both spandex and leather, and assorted gags, including some designed to attach to the leather hoods... | ...Kink play with Dylan and/or Joe may have involved a hood, and play involving that hood may have involved implements that block one's airway if one were not careful. |
Joe was leading the charge in looking for a third in the months leading up to the incident; and because his emails convey a sense of mild desperation about Dylan losing attraction to him, and his suggestions seem potentially rooted in that; and because (until Victor came home early) conditions on the night of the 2nd were ones Joe felt were ideal for bringing a third man home to play with himself and Dylan; and because Victor did not even know they were going to have a guest that night until he encountered Dylan making up the bed in the guest room... | ...In light of all the above, it's kind of curious that Joe had known for the better part of a week that Robert was coming, yet hadn't mentioned that at all to his partner of seven years, isn't it? |
In police interviews, Joe seems very concerned about Dylan and is asking after him, asking if they're done talking to Dylan, asking if he can talk to Dylan, etc; and because Victor had been with Joe for seven years and was his domestic partner; and because Dylan had been around for something like three years and did not share equal partnership in the relationship... | ...It's strange that Joe was so fixated on getting to talk to Dylan particularly. He asked police about Dylan, and when he called his brother Michael while sitting in the interrogation room, one of the first things he asked was if Dylan had come out yet. It wouldn't be quite so strange if he were also asking after Victor but it seems like there was something about Dylan in particular that he was anxious about in the hours following Robert's death. |
EMTs reported that the residents seemed freshly showered; and because an EMT reported Dylan emerging wordlessly from a hallway alcove near a bathroom, wearing a white terrycloth robe, and entering his room without speaking... | Dylan wasn't hanging out in an alcove - he had just come out of the bathroom. He was probably showering. |
The scream between 23:00 and 23:30 is generally acknowledged to have been Victor's... | ...The scream was the moment Victor discovered that Robert was dead. |
Robert's wife, as well as Price, Ward, and Zaborsky all insist Robert was not at all interested in sex with men... | ...If Robert actually was interested in sex with men, then his wife didn't know about it. And the three men either didn't know about it, or they did know about it but are lying. It's worth pointing out that Joe had known Robert a full decade longer than Kathy had. |
A plot between three people to assault and murder Robert seems unlikely, and so does an intruder; and because even if it were an accident of some kind, there would need to be some extraordinary circumstances in play to stop any of the three men from trying to get help for their friend who'd just suffocated; and because whatever happened seems to have primarily involved Joe and Dylan... | ...We can deduce what happened to Robert Wone. |
2021.09.04 09:04 CliffTruxton The Swann Street Incident: The Facts in the Case
2021.08.20 16:16 CyberHoot CISA Advisory (ICSA-21-119-04) - CyberHoot
submitted by CyberHoot to u/CyberHoot [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/wmdz7hg9uii71.png?width=824&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ba113bb6b0ee6af7028f2b40da0181e51c93da2 August 19th, 2021: CyberHoot has received notification of critical risks to our national cybersecurity. A critical vulnerability has been made public by CISA, known as “BadAlloc”. Details of the vulnerabilities found in multiple real-time operating systems (RTOS) and supporting libraries are available here. CyberHoot is issuing this advisory to provide early notice of the reported vulnerabilities in the hope of assisting our clients in identifying at-risk systems and upgrading/eliminating/remediating the risks quickly and effectively. Doing so will reduce your risk of these attacks. The vulnerabilities may allow malicious actors to exploit your systems using remote code injection/execution or simply crash your device. Affected Systems and VulnerabilityBelow are the affected systems from this vulnerability. For more information on the specific vulnerabilities for each tool, go to https://cwe.mitre.org/data/definitions/190.html for more information.
What Can You Do?Below are mitigations for this vulnerability on the various systems it affects. The majority of systems have updates/patches available for this potential exploit. CyberHoot recommends you update immediately if you use these tools.
SOURCESCISA.GovCWE – Integer Overflow or Wraparound |
2021.08.20 15:00 caramel_member Weekly cybernews recap:
2020.12.12 18:12 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 14th, 2020
The week ahead is so jam-packed for markets that it could determine whether there will be a smooth glide path for a Santa rally into the end of the year.
First, Congress looks set to fight down to the wire about a pandemic stimulus package, and chances are good it could again disappoint. The Fed also holds its final meeting of the year, and market pros are split on whether it will tweak its bond buying program when it issues its statement Wednesday. Since there’s a divided view, there’s room for market reaction either way.
Then there is lots of really meaty data, including November retail sales Wednesday, the Markit Purchase Manager Indexes and regional Fed surveys.
Finally, Tesla will be rolled into the S&P 500 at Friday’s closing bell, and that could bring its own fireworks as big investors lighten up on the other index stocks to make room for entrance of the electric car maker in their portfolios. That also happens on a day that could have its own built-in volatility — the quarterly quadruple witching expiration of options and futures.
“To me, the most market moving piece of information is, do we or don’t we get a stimulus package? The market has priced one in, so the biggest disappointment is if we don’t get one,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “The tug of war between the virus and vaccine had a tiebreaker in stimulus.”
Hogan said a positive could be if the Food and Drug Administration on Thursday votes to approve the Moderna vaccine, a week after it considered Pfizer’s vaccine. But it is really Congress the market is looking to now, and if it acts, it will be a market positive.
“I think that propels us into the year-end and higher levels. It only takes one of these things to pull over the apple cart, and the one that could matter is Congress not getting something out the door on stimulus. That would pull us back the hardest,” Hogan said.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the expiration of unemployment benefits for millions of Americans at the end of December could push Congress to act.
“But you can’t ignore the strong stance the Republicans have taken on liability for business and the strong stance the Democrats have taken on state aid,” he said.
Tom Block, Washington policy analyst at Fundstrat, said he sees a 50/50 chance for a deal by the end of the week. If there is no agreement, federal unemployment benefits for millions and an eviction moratorium would expire at the end of the month.
Block said that even if Congress fails to immediately approve a bill to prevent a government shutdown, he expects lawmakers to reach an accord and keep the government running. But the stimulus is unclear, and much of it is a relief package.
“There’s a solution staring them in the face, and the record food lines are in red states and blue states,” he said. “Both sides seem to be unwilling to come to a deal on what they commonly agree on.”
Tesla revving up the S&P
Tesla’s entry into the S&P 500 is a much-anticipated event that traders expect to add some volatility to the market, as investors in the S&P index shift holdings. Tesla joins the S&P 500 on Dec. 21, at Friday’s closing price, and Friday has the potential to be a wild day .
“I don’t know if it creates volatility. It’s going to create a significant amount of frenetic trading which may have the aspects of volatility,” said Matthew Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors. “Given we are interacting with a very high-volatility regime already, I think it wouldn’t take much to see the VIX spike.”
Bartolini said there was already a lot of trading activity expected with the expiration of options and futures Friday. “It’s just going to create more noise,” he said.
Tesla is the biggest company to join the S&P 500, and the rebalance Friday will be the largest ever. Tesla will be the seventh-largest stock in the S&P.
Index fund managers will have to buy upwards of an estimated $70 billion of Tesla, and that means selling the other S&P 500 stocks to make room. There will also be trading based on weighting adjustments in the index.
“What you will likely have is people naturally are going to buy Tesla and sell other shares. It could create some upward momentum in Tesla and downward pressure on the shares that are going out,” Bartolini said.
“It will be exciting. You’re going to see Tesla trade at significant volume.”
Fed ahead
The Fed meeting will also be important, and it has been a hot topic of speculation, particularly in the bond market. Some market pros expect the Fed could make changes to its bond program. The Fed is currently buying at least $80 billion a month of Treasurys, and Fed officials have discussed what they could do to change that program at their last meeting.
There is now speculation that the Fed will hold the purchases at $80 billion a month, but change the type of securities it is buying, with more focus on longer-dated notes and bonds. That would theoretically hold rates down at the long end, but only about half of market participants expect the Fed to take action at this meeting.
The Fed also is buying at least $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities.
“It means at least half the market is going to be disappointed with whatever the Fed does or doesn’t do,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist and senior trader at Incapital. “That has the potential to cause some volatility, especially in the rates market, and potentially in risk markets.”
Stocks were choppy in the past week, with the S&P 500 down just about 1% at 3,663. Treasury yields moved higher in the past week but retrenched Friday, when the 10-year sank below 0.9%.
Window on the economy
There’s a busy economic calendar in the week ahead. Weekly claims Thursday are expected to be closely watched after a surprise jump in people seeking new benefits for the week ending Dec. 5.
November Markit PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors are released Wednesday, as is the November retail sales report.
Boockvar said he is watching to see how much the services sector is being impacted by the spreading pandemic and related shutdowns.
“I think the economic data is being overlooked for better or worse because it’s pre-vaccine,” he said.
Economists expect the economy is slowing and the labor market has been weakening, particularly since the virus spread has continued to accelerate. Some expect the first quarter to be weaker than the fourth quarter, but activity should pick up in the second quarter as the vaccine is distributed.
Not All Bad for Small Business
This morning the NFIB released their monthly reading on the small business sector. With case counts rising throughout November, small business optimism took a hit. Compared to September and October's identical readings of 104, November's reading fell to 101.4. Although that is lower, it remains above the levels seen from March through the summer. Additionally, there were several silver linings in this month's report.
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Glancing across the various components and sub-indices of the report, breadth was pretty mixed. Of the ten components of the headline number, six fell and the remaining four were higher. Of the other indices that are not inputs to the headline number, half of the indices were higher while another two were unchanged, and the other two were lower.
As for the most pressing problems reported by small businesses, there was little change overall. Quality of labor remains the most widely reported problem, stealing share from those reporting the cost of labor as the biggest issue. The second biggest issue and the only other one to see an uptick in November was taxes. Perhaps due to the results of the election and the prospects of higher taxes down the road, the percentage of respondents reporting taxes as the most pressing issue rose 3 percentage points to 20%.
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Taking a deeper dive into the individual components of the report, the various indices concerning employment metrics were pretty strong in November. While the index for actual employment changes remains negative meaning more businesses reported declines in employment rather than increases, that is not to say businesses are not looking to gain employees.
For starters, a higher number of responding firms (34% vs 33% in October) reported that they had at least one unfilled job opening in November. That is in the top decile of all historical readings. Breaking that number down further, the NFIB highlighted that 29% of those were for skilled workers and 13% were for unskilled workers. Additionally, businesses do plan to fill open positions in the near future. The index for plans to increase employment rose from 18 in October to 21 last month. Overall, more than half of firms said that they either hired or are trying to hire as 30% reported that either cost or quality of labor have been the biggest roadblocks to their business. Given these apparently tight labor conditions, the indices for compensation and plans to increase compensation were both higher.
We would also note that the divergence between businesses wanting/trying to fill positions and declines in the actual number of employees reported is consistent with what we saw in last week's data from the ISM report.
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Rising employment and compensation can be justified when looking at the indices concerning sales and earnings. While these broadly took turns lower this month, they remain at readings that are consistent with more companies than not seeing sales growth. The index for earnings changes turned a bit lower falling from -4 to -7. Despite that, it is still a level that is at the top of its historic range. Additionally, a net 5% of reporting firms saw higher sales over the past three months, down slightly from 6% last month.
In turn, the net percentage of owners expecting sales to be higher also fell to a reading of 10% from 11% last month. Even though sales were a bit weaker, prices have continued to rise. The index for companies reporting higher prices rose from 15 to 18. That is the highest level of that index since a reading of 19 in May of 2018. NFIB highlighted further that the most common businesses to report higher prices were retail (28%) and wholesale (23%).
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Although the decline in expected sales was modest and businesses plan to increase hiring, the index that took the biggest hit in November was the reading for expectations for the economy to improve. That index for the general outlook of business conditions fell 19 points month over month to a low reading of 8. That is the lowest level since March when the index was 3 points lower at 5. Additionally, the only time the index has declined by more in just one month was in November of 2012 when it fell from 0 to -38 in just one month. Other indices like those for expenditures and whether or not it is a good time to expand similarly remain weak, but did not see the same sort of dramatic declines.
Looking at other indices though, this decline appears to have been relatively extreme. A net 5% of owners report inventory levels are too low which is tied with September for a record high. While a greater share of firms plan to increase rather than reduce inventories, that index did fall from a 48-year high of 12 last month down to 5 in November. Despite that historically large single month decline, this monthly reading is still at a strong level.
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Meet the Nasdaq 100's Post-Election Leaders
The Nasdaq 100 finally made a new high on Tuesday before pulling back yesterday, but in the run-up to new highs in the post-election rally, it hasn't been the same old crew of stocks pushing the index higher. While the Nasdaq 100 is up about 12.5% since the election, thirteen stocks are up by more than twice the amount of the index itself. Leading the way higher, Moderna (MRNA) is up over 100% after positive news regarding its vaccine. After MRNA, shares of Pinduoduo (PDD), a Chinese e-commerce play, have rallied more the 50%, rising from $97.72 up to $154.00. Tesla (TSLA) rounds out the top three with a gain of 47% in just the last five weeks. The next two stocks on the list - Applied Materials (AMAT) and Micron (MU) - can hardly be considered emerging stocks. In addition to those two stocks from the semiconductor sector, three others from the sector made the cut (LRCX. MCHP, and QCOM) as chips have been red-hot.
At the bottom of the table, we have also included the performance of the five mega-cap stocks of the Nasdaq 100. While all five stocks outperformed for much of 2020, not a single one of them is outperforming the Nasdaq 100 since Election Day, and only Apple (AAPL) is anywhere close to matching the performance of the index itself.
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The chart below shows the performance of an equally-weighted basket of the five mega-cap stocks over the last year. From 9/2 to 9/23, this basket of stocks pulled back more than 16%, and while it has been steadily grinding higher in the eleven weeks since that low, up until this point, the prior highs from September haven't even come into play.
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Sentiment Still Overwhelmingly Bullish
For the third week in a row, just under half of the respondents to the weekly AAII sentiment survey reported as bullish. This week's bullish sentiment reading came in at 48.06%, which was down just slightly from 49.07% last week. While lower in the past week, bullish sentiment remains elevated in the top decile of readings over the past decade. Granted, it is also still below the high of 55.84% from November 12th. Similarly, the Investor Intelligence survey of equity newsletter writers also saw bullish sentiment drop slightly, falling from 64.7% to 64.4%. But again just like the AAII survey, that is a historically elevated level in the top 3% of all readings since 1963.
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With bullish sentiment lower, a higher percentage of investors reported as bearish. Whereas last week saw bearish sentiment fall to 22.66%, the lowest level since the first week of 2020, this week bearish sentiment rose 4.2 percentage points to 26.86%. That is still below the reading of 27.47% from the last week of November and at the low end of the past few years' range. In terms of bearish sentiment, the Investors Intelligence survey is again echoing these results. This survey saw bearish sentiment rise 0.1 percentage points to 16.8%.
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Overall, sentiment remains heavily in favor of bulls. As shown below, for both the AAII and Investors Intelligence surveys, the bull-bear spreads are at historically high levels.
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Rally To Resume Mid-Month - Typical December Seasonal Pattern
For the most part, this December has unfolded in rather typical seasonal fashion. The market started the month off with solid gains and continued to rally through the fourth trading day before turning somewhat mixed. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ advanced an additional two trading days while DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 see-sawed essentially sideways until yesterday, the seventh trading day of December.
Currently the major indexes are navigating the often-dull period that has historically begun around the fourth trading day of the month through the eighth. Afterwards, later this week into early next week, another patch of weakness is possible. Then right around mid-month, the rally that began in at the beginning of November, is likely to resume. The resumption could be bumpy but once quarterly options expiration passes our Santa Claus Rally will begin on the open of trading on December 24. Since 1969, S&P 500 has enjoyed an average gain of 1.3% during the Santa Claus Rally that spans the last five trading days of this year and the first two trading days of next year.
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Is Inflation Looming?
The November reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well-known measure of inflation, was released Thursday, December 10, and while both the headline and “core” readings (excluding food and energy) came in slightly higher than the Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus, core inflation remains tame at 1.6% over the trailing year. Inflation is likely to pick up as the economy improves and may run a little hotter than we’ve seen in recent years in 2021, but we believe the risks of a substantial inflation surprise over the next year is limited.
“Congress and the Fed provided massive stimulus this year and it seems like that should be inflationary,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, “but it’s important to remember that the stimulus was there to fill a giant hole from lost wages and an economy running well below its potential.”
As shown in today’s LPL Chart of the Day, core inflation on a trailing-year basis still has some catching up to do, although the one-month reading is now largely consistent with pre-Covid levels. inflation over the last decade has remained subdued and largely steady.
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- $FDX
- $HEXO
- $RAD
- $NKE
- $BB
- $CTK
- $GIS
- $ACN
- $TTC
- $LEN
- $WGO
- $JBL
- $DRI
- $UXIN
- $CNTG
- $SAFM
- $MTSC
- $ABM
- $WOR
- $AOUT
- $NDSN
- $APOG
- $DL
- $BLBD
- $AIR
- $ASPU
- $APDN
- $CAMP
- $SCHL
- $QTT
- $SCSC
- $VNCE
- $RFIL
- $CSBR
- $NAV
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FedEx Corp. $289.47
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.90 per share on revenue of $19.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 55.38% with revenue increasing by 11.06%. Short interest has decreased by 34.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.0% above its 200 day moving average of $186.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,300 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, April 16, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.
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HEXO Corp. $1.00
HEXO Corp. (HEXO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Monday, December 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $21.62 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 80.00% with revenue increasing by 97.39%. Short interest has decreased by 13.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.7% above its 200 day moving average of $0.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 10.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Rite Aid Corp. $18.46
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $5.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 101.85% with revenue increasing by 7.10%. Short interest has increased by 13.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.8% above its 200 day moving average of $13.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,170 contracts of the $23.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 18.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.7% move in recent quarters.
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Nike Inc $137.41
Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Friday, December 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $10.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.00% with revenue increasing by 2.56%. Short interest has increased by 34.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 30.9% above its 200 day moving average of $104.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,836 contracts of the $135.00 put and 4,558 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
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BlackBerry Limited $8.16
BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.00% with revenue increasing by 274.16%. Short interest has increased by 21.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 67.2% above its 200 day moving average of $4.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, December 1, 2020 there was some notable buying of 34,988 contracts of the $10.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
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CooTek Inc. $4.93
CooTek Inc. (CTK) is confirmed to report earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, December 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share on revenue of $112.20 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $112.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 485.71% with revenue increasing by 258.81%. Short interest has decreased by 33.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 32.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
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General Mills, Inc. $59.32
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $4.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.05% with revenue increasing by 5.18%. Short interest has increased by 28.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $60.04. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 843 contracts of the $57.50 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
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Accenture Ltd. $245.83
Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.04 per share on revenue of $11.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.39% with revenue increasing by 0.19%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $210.33. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
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Toro Company $91.52
Toro Company (TTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.52 per share on revenue of $760.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.33% with revenue increasing by 3.59%. Short interest has increased by 33.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.7% below its 200 day moving average of $181.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.
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Lennar Corp. $72.76
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:10 PM ET on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.38 per share on revenue of $6.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.74% with revenue decreasing by 6.33%. Short interest has decreased by 4.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $64.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,725 contracts of the $76.50 call expiring on Thursday, December 24, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
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2020.12.12 18:07 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 14th, 2020
The week ahead is so jam-packed for markets that it could determine whether there will be a smooth glide path for a Santa rally into the end of the year.
First, Congress looks set to fight down to the wire about a pandemic stimulus package, and chances are good it could again disappoint. The Fed also holds its final meeting of the year, and market pros are split on whether it will tweak its bond buying program when it issues its statement Wednesday. Since there’s a divided view, there’s room for market reaction either way.
Then there is lots of really meaty data, including November retail sales Wednesday, the Markit Purchase Manager Indexes and regional Fed surveys.
Finally, Tesla will be rolled into the S&P 500 at Friday’s closing bell, and that could bring its own fireworks as big investors lighten up on the other index stocks to make room for entrance of the electric car maker in their portfolios. That also happens on a day that could have its own built-in volatility — the quarterly quadruple witching expiration of options and futures.
“To me, the most market moving piece of information is, do we or don’t we get a stimulus package? The market has priced one in, so the biggest disappointment is if we don’t get one,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “The tug of war between the virus and vaccine had a tiebreaker in stimulus.”
Hogan said a positive could be if the Food and Drug Administration on Thursday votes to approve the Moderna vaccine, a week after it considered Pfizer’s vaccine. But it is really Congress the market is looking to now, and if it acts, it will be a market positive.
“I think that propels us into the year-end and higher levels. It only takes one of these things to pull over the apple cart, and the one that could matter is Congress not getting something out the door on stimulus. That would pull us back the hardest,” Hogan said.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the expiration of unemployment benefits for millions of Americans at the end of December could push Congress to act.
“But you can’t ignore the strong stance the Republicans have taken on liability for business and the strong stance the Democrats have taken on state aid,” he said.
Tom Block, Washington policy analyst at Fundstrat, said he sees a 50/50 chance for a deal by the end of the week. If there is no agreement, federal unemployment benefits for millions and an eviction moratorium would expire at the end of the month.
Block said that even if Congress fails to immediately approve a bill to prevent a government shutdown, he expects lawmakers to reach an accord and keep the government running. But the stimulus is unclear, and much of it is a relief package.
“There’s a solution staring them in the face, and the record food lines are in red states and blue states,” he said. “Both sides seem to be unwilling to come to a deal on what they commonly agree on.”
Tesla revving up the S&P
Tesla’s entry into the S&P 500 is a much-anticipated event that traders expect to add some volatility to the market, as investors in the S&P index shift holdings. Tesla joins the S&P 500 on Dec. 21, at Friday’s closing price, and Friday has the potential to be a wild day .
“I don’t know if it creates volatility. It’s going to create a significant amount of frenetic trading which may have the aspects of volatility,” said Matthew Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors. “Given we are interacting with a very high-volatility regime already, I think it wouldn’t take much to see the VIX spike.”
Bartolini said there was already a lot of trading activity expected with the expiration of options and futures Friday. “It’s just going to create more noise,” he said.
Tesla is the biggest company to join the S&P 500, and the rebalance Friday will be the largest ever. Tesla will be the seventh-largest stock in the S&P.
Index fund managers will have to buy upwards of an estimated $70 billion of Tesla, and that means selling the other S&P 500 stocks to make room. There will also be trading based on weighting adjustments in the index.
“What you will likely have is people naturally are going to buy Tesla and sell other shares. It could create some upward momentum in Tesla and downward pressure on the shares that are going out,” Bartolini said.
“It will be exciting. You’re going to see Tesla trade at significant volume.”
Fed ahead
The Fed meeting will also be important, and it has been a hot topic of speculation, particularly in the bond market. Some market pros expect the Fed could make changes to its bond program. The Fed is currently buying at least $80 billion a month of Treasurys, and Fed officials have discussed what they could do to change that program at their last meeting.
There is now speculation that the Fed will hold the purchases at $80 billion a month, but change the type of securities it is buying, with more focus on longer-dated notes and bonds. That would theoretically hold rates down at the long end, but only about half of market participants expect the Fed to take action at this meeting.
The Fed also is buying at least $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities.
“It means at least half the market is going to be disappointed with whatever the Fed does or doesn’t do,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist and senior trader at Incapital. “That has the potential to cause some volatility, especially in the rates market, and potentially in risk markets.”
Stocks were choppy in the past week, with the S&P 500 down just about 1% at 3,663. Treasury yields moved higher in the past week but retrenched Friday, when the 10-year sank below 0.9%.
Window on the economy
There’s a busy economic calendar in the week ahead. Weekly claims Thursday are expected to be closely watched after a surprise jump in people seeking new benefits for the week ending Dec. 5.
November Markit PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors are released Wednesday, as is the November retail sales report.
Boockvar said he is watching to see how much the services sector is being impacted by the spreading pandemic and related shutdowns.
“I think the economic data is being overlooked for better or worse because it’s pre-vaccine,” he said.
Economists expect the economy is slowing and the labor market has been weakening, particularly since the virus spread has continued to accelerate. Some expect the first quarter to be weaker than the fourth quarter, but activity should pick up in the second quarter as the vaccine is distributed.
Not All Bad for Small Business
This morning the NFIB released their monthly reading on the small business sector. With case counts rising throughout November, small business optimism took a hit. Compared to September and October's identical readings of 104, November's reading fell to 101.4. Although that is lower, it remains above the levels seen from March through the summer. Additionally, there were several silver linings in this month's report.
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Glancing across the various components and sub-indices of the report, breadth was pretty mixed. Of the ten components of the headline number, six fell and the remaining four were higher. Of the other indices that are not inputs to the headline number, half of the indices were higher while another two were unchanged, and the other two were lower.
As for the most pressing problems reported by small businesses, there was little change overall. Quality of labor remains the most widely reported problem, stealing share from those reporting the cost of labor as the biggest issue. The second biggest issue and the only other one to see an uptick in November was taxes. Perhaps due to the results of the election and the prospects of higher taxes down the road, the percentage of respondents reporting taxes as the most pressing issue rose 3 percentage points to 20%.
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Taking a deeper dive into the individual components of the report, the various indices concerning employment metrics were pretty strong in November. While the index for actual employment changes remains negative meaning more businesses reported declines in employment rather than increases, that is not to say businesses are not looking to gain employees.
For starters, a higher number of responding firms (34% vs 33% in October) reported that they had at least one unfilled job opening in November. That is in the top decile of all historical readings. Breaking that number down further, the NFIB highlighted that 29% of those were for skilled workers and 13% were for unskilled workers. Additionally, businesses do plan to fill open positions in the near future. The index for plans to increase employment rose from 18 in October to 21 last month. Overall, more than half of firms said that they either hired or are trying to hire as 30% reported that either cost or quality of labor have been the biggest roadblocks to their business. Given these apparently tight labor conditions, the indices for compensation and plans to increase compensation were both higher.
We would also note that the divergence between businesses wanting/trying to fill positions and declines in the actual number of employees reported is consistent with what we saw in last week's data from the ISM report.
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Rising employment and compensation can be justified when looking at the indices concerning sales and earnings. While these broadly took turns lower this month, they remain at readings that are consistent with more companies than not seeing sales growth. The index for earnings changes turned a bit lower falling from -4 to -7. Despite that, it is still a level that is at the top of its historic range. Additionally, a net 5% of reporting firms saw higher sales over the past three months, down slightly from 6% last month.
In turn, the net percentage of owners expecting sales to be higher also fell to a reading of 10% from 11% last month. Even though sales were a bit weaker, prices have continued to rise. The index for companies reporting higher prices rose from 15 to 18. That is the highest level of that index since a reading of 19 in May of 2018. NFIB highlighted further that the most common businesses to report higher prices were retail (28%) and wholesale (23%).
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Although the decline in expected sales was modest and businesses plan to increase hiring, the index that took the biggest hit in November was the reading for expectations for the economy to improve. That index for the general outlook of business conditions fell 19 points month over month to a low reading of 8. That is the lowest level since March when the index was 3 points lower at 5. Additionally, the only time the index has declined by more in just one month was in November of 2012 when it fell from 0 to -38 in just one month. Other indices like those for expenditures and whether or not it is a good time to expand similarly remain weak, but did not see the same sort of dramatic declines.
Looking at other indices though, this decline appears to have been relatively extreme. A net 5% of owners report inventory levels are too low which is tied with September for a record high. While a greater share of firms plan to increase rather than reduce inventories, that index did fall from a 48-year high of 12 last month down to 5 in November. Despite that historically large single month decline, this monthly reading is still at a strong level.
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Meet the Nasdaq 100's Post-Election Leaders
The Nasdaq 100 finally made a new high on Tuesday before pulling back yesterday, but in the run-up to new highs in the post-election rally, it hasn't been the same old crew of stocks pushing the index higher. While the Nasdaq 100 is up about 12.5% since the election, thirteen stocks are up by more than twice the amount of the index itself. Leading the way higher, Moderna (MRNA) is up over 100% after positive news regarding its vaccine. After MRNA, shares of Pinduoduo (PDD), a Chinese e-commerce play, have rallied more the 50%, rising from $97.72 up to $154.00. Tesla (TSLA) rounds out the top three with a gain of 47% in just the last five weeks. The next two stocks on the list - Applied Materials (AMAT) and Micron (MU) - can hardly be considered emerging stocks. In addition to those two stocks from the semiconductor sector, three others from the sector made the cut (LRCX. MCHP, and QCOM) as chips have been red-hot.
At the bottom of the table, we have also included the performance of the five mega-cap stocks of the Nasdaq 100. While all five stocks outperformed for much of 2020, not a single one of them is outperforming the Nasdaq 100 since Election Day, and only Apple (AAPL) is anywhere close to matching the performance of the index itself.
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The chart below shows the performance of an equally-weighted basket of the five mega-cap stocks over the last year. From 9/2 to 9/23, this basket of stocks pulled back more than 16%, and while it has been steadily grinding higher in the eleven weeks since that low, up until this point, the prior highs from September haven't even come into play.
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Sentiment Still Overwhelmingly Bullish
For the third week in a row, just under half of the respondents to the weekly AAII sentiment survey reported as bullish. This week's bullish sentiment reading came in at 48.06%, which was down just slightly from 49.07% last week. While lower in the past week, bullish sentiment remains elevated in the top decile of readings over the past decade. Granted, it is also still below the high of 55.84% from November 12th. Similarly, the Investor Intelligence survey of equity newsletter writers also saw bullish sentiment drop slightly, falling from 64.7% to 64.4%. But again just like the AAII survey, that is a historically elevated level in the top 3% of all readings since 1963.
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With bullish sentiment lower, a higher percentage of investors reported as bearish. Whereas last week saw bearish sentiment fall to 22.66%, the lowest level since the first week of 2020, this week bearish sentiment rose 4.2 percentage points to 26.86%. That is still below the reading of 27.47% from the last week of November and at the low end of the past few years' range. In terms of bearish sentiment, the Investors Intelligence survey is again echoing these results. This survey saw bearish sentiment rise 0.1 percentage points to 16.8%.
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Overall, sentiment remains heavily in favor of bulls. As shown below, for both the AAII and Investors Intelligence surveys, the bull-bear spreads are at historically high levels.
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Rally To Resume Mid-Month - Typical December Seasonal Pattern
For the most part, this December has unfolded in rather typical seasonal fashion. The market started the month off with solid gains and continued to rally through the fourth trading day before turning somewhat mixed. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ advanced an additional two trading days while DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 see-sawed essentially sideways until yesterday, the seventh trading day of December.
Currently the major indexes are navigating the often-dull period that has historically begun around the fourth trading day of the month through the eighth. Afterwards, later this week into early next week, another patch of weakness is possible. Then right around mid-month, the rally that began in at the beginning of November, is likely to resume. The resumption could be bumpy but once quarterly options expiration passes our Santa Claus Rally will begin on the open of trading on December 24. Since 1969, S&P 500 has enjoyed an average gain of 1.3% during the Santa Claus Rally that spans the last five trading days of this year and the first two trading days of next year.
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Is Inflation Looming?
The November reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well-known measure of inflation, was released Thursday, December 10, and while both the headline and “core” readings (excluding food and energy) came in slightly higher than the Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus, core inflation remains tame at 1.6% over the trailing year. Inflation is likely to pick up as the economy improves and may run a little hotter than we’ve seen in recent years in 2021, but we believe the risks of a substantial inflation surprise over the next year is limited.
“Congress and the Fed provided massive stimulus this year and it seems like that should be inflationary,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, “but it’s important to remember that the stimulus was there to fill a giant hole from lost wages and an economy running well below its potential.”
As shown in today’s LPL Chart of the Day, core inflation on a trailing-year basis still has some catching up to do, although the one-month reading is now largely consistent with pre-Covid levels. inflation over the last decade has remained subdued and largely steady.
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FedEx Corp. $289.47
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.90 per share on revenue of $19.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 55.38% with revenue increasing by 11.06%. Short interest has decreased by 34.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.0% above its 200 day moving average of $186.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,300 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, April 16, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.
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HEXO Corp. $1.00
HEXO Corp. (HEXO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Monday, December 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $21.62 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 80.00% with revenue increasing by 97.39%. Short interest has decreased by 13.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.7% above its 200 day moving average of $0.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 10.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Rite Aid Corp. $18.46
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $5.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 101.85% with revenue increasing by 7.10%. Short interest has increased by 13.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.8% above its 200 day moving average of $13.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,170 contracts of the $23.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 18.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.7% move in recent quarters.
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Nike Inc $137.41
Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Friday, December 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $10.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.00% with revenue increasing by 2.56%. Short interest has increased by 34.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 30.9% above its 200 day moving average of $104.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,836 contracts of the $135.00 put and 4,558 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
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BlackBerry Limited $8.16
BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.00% with revenue increasing by 274.16%. Short interest has increased by 21.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 67.2% above its 200 day moving average of $4.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, December 1, 2020 there was some notable buying of 34,988 contracts of the $10.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
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CooTek Inc. $4.93
CooTek Inc. (CTK) is confirmed to report earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, December 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share on revenue of $112.20 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $112.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 485.71% with revenue increasing by 258.81%. Short interest has decreased by 33.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 32.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
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General Mills, Inc. $59.32
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $4.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.05% with revenue increasing by 5.18%. Short interest has increased by 28.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $60.04. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 843 contracts of the $57.50 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
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Accenture Ltd. $245.83
Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.04 per share on revenue of $11.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.39% with revenue increasing by 0.19%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $210.33. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
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Toro Company $91.52
Toro Company (TTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.52 per share on revenue of $760.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.33% with revenue increasing by 3.59%. Short interest has increased by 33.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.7% below its 200 day moving average of $181.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.
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Lennar Corp. $72.76
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:10 PM ET on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.38 per share on revenue of $6.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.74% with revenue decreasing by 6.33%. Short interest has decreased by 4.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $64.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,725 contracts of the $76.50 call expiring on Thursday, December 24, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
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2020.12.12 17:59 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 14th, 2020
The week ahead is so jam-packed for markets that it could determine whether there will be a smooth glide path for a Santa rally into the end of the year.
First, Congress looks set to fight down to the wire about a pandemic stimulus package, and chances are good it could again disappoint. The Fed also holds its final meeting of the year, and market pros are split on whether it will tweak its bond buying program when it issues its statement Wednesday. Since there’s a divided view, there’s room for market reaction either way.
Then there is lots of really meaty data, including November retail sales Wednesday, the Markit Purchase Manager Indexes and regional Fed surveys.
Finally, Tesla will be rolled into the S&P 500 at Friday’s closing bell, and that could bring its own fireworks as big investors lighten up on the other index stocks to make room for entrance of the electric car maker in their portfolios. That also happens on a day that could have its own built-in volatility — the quarterly quadruple witching expiration of options and futures.
“To me, the most market moving piece of information is, do we or don’t we get a stimulus package? The market has priced one in, so the biggest disappointment is if we don’t get one,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “The tug of war between the virus and vaccine had a tiebreaker in stimulus.”
Hogan said a positive could be if the Food and Drug Administration on Thursday votes to approve the Moderna vaccine, a week after it considered Pfizer’s vaccine. But it is really Congress the market is looking to now, and if it acts, it will be a market positive.
“I think that propels us into the year-end and higher levels. It only takes one of these things to pull over the apple cart, and the one that could matter is Congress not getting something out the door on stimulus. That would pull us back the hardest,” Hogan said.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the expiration of unemployment benefits for millions of Americans at the end of December could push Congress to act.
“But you can’t ignore the strong stance the Republicans have taken on liability for business and the strong stance the Democrats have taken on state aid,” he said.
Tom Block, Washington policy analyst at Fundstrat, said he sees a 50/50 chance for a deal by the end of the week. If there is no agreement, federal unemployment benefits for millions and an eviction moratorium would expire at the end of the month.
Block said that even if Congress fails to immediately approve a bill to prevent a government shutdown, he expects lawmakers to reach an accord and keep the government running. But the stimulus is unclear, and much of it is a relief package.
“There’s a solution staring them in the face, and the record food lines are in red states and blue states,” he said. “Both sides seem to be unwilling to come to a deal on what they commonly agree on.”
Tesla revving up the S&P
Tesla’s entry into the S&P 500 is a much-anticipated event that traders expect to add some volatility to the market, as investors in the S&P index shift holdings. Tesla joins the S&P 500 on Dec. 21, at Friday’s closing price, and Friday has the potential to be a wild day .
“I don’t know if it creates volatility. It’s going to create a significant amount of frenetic trading which may have the aspects of volatility,” said Matthew Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors. “Given we are interacting with a very high-volatility regime already, I think it wouldn’t take much to see the VIX spike.”
Bartolini said there was already a lot of trading activity expected with the expiration of options and futures Friday. “It’s just going to create more noise,” he said.
Tesla is the biggest company to join the S&P 500, and the rebalance Friday will be the largest ever. Tesla will be the seventh-largest stock in the S&P.
Index fund managers will have to buy upwards of an estimated $70 billion of Tesla, and that means selling the other S&P 500 stocks to make room. There will also be trading based on weighting adjustments in the index.
“What you will likely have is people naturally are going to buy Tesla and sell other shares. It could create some upward momentum in Tesla and downward pressure on the shares that are going out,” Bartolini said.
“It will be exciting. You’re going to see Tesla trade at significant volume.”
Fed ahead
The Fed meeting will also be important, and it has been a hot topic of speculation, particularly in the bond market. Some market pros expect the Fed could make changes to its bond program. The Fed is currently buying at least $80 billion a month of Treasurys, and Fed officials have discussed what they could do to change that program at their last meeting.
There is now speculation that the Fed will hold the purchases at $80 billion a month, but change the type of securities it is buying, with more focus on longer-dated notes and bonds. That would theoretically hold rates down at the long end, but only about half of market participants expect the Fed to take action at this meeting.
The Fed also is buying at least $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities.
“It means at least half the market is going to be disappointed with whatever the Fed does or doesn’t do,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist and senior trader at Incapital. “That has the potential to cause some volatility, especially in the rates market, and potentially in risk markets.”
Stocks were choppy in the past week, with the S&P 500 down just about 1% at 3,663. Treasury yields moved higher in the past week but retrenched Friday, when the 10-year sank below 0.9%.
Window on the economy
There’s a busy economic calendar in the week ahead. Weekly claims Thursday are expected to be closely watched after a surprise jump in people seeking new benefits for the week ending Dec. 5.
November Markit PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors are released Wednesday, as is the November retail sales report.
Boockvar said he is watching to see how much the services sector is being impacted by the spreading pandemic and related shutdowns.
“I think the economic data is being overlooked for better or worse because it’s pre-vaccine,” he said.
Economists expect the economy is slowing and the labor market has been weakening, particularly since the virus spread has continued to accelerate. Some expect the first quarter to be weaker than the fourth quarter, but activity should pick up in the second quarter as the vaccine is distributed.
Not All Bad for Small Business
This morning the NFIB released their monthly reading on the small business sector. With case counts rising throughout November, small business optimism took a hit. Compared to September and October's identical readings of 104, November's reading fell to 101.4. Although that is lower, it remains above the levels seen from March through the summer. Additionally, there were several silver linings in this month's report.
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Glancing across the various components and sub-indices of the report, breadth was pretty mixed. Of the ten components of the headline number, six fell and the remaining four were higher. Of the other indices that are not inputs to the headline number, half of the indices were higher while another two were unchanged, and the other two were lower.
As for the most pressing problems reported by small businesses, there was little change overall. Quality of labor remains the most widely reported problem, stealing share from those reporting the cost of labor as the biggest issue. The second biggest issue and the only other one to see an uptick in November was taxes. Perhaps due to the results of the election and the prospects of higher taxes down the road, the percentage of respondents reporting taxes as the most pressing issue rose 3 percentage points to 20%.
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Taking a deeper dive into the individual components of the report, the various indices concerning employment metrics were pretty strong in November. While the index for actual employment changes remains negative meaning more businesses reported declines in employment rather than increases, that is not to say businesses are not looking to gain employees.
For starters, a higher number of responding firms (34% vs 33% in October) reported that they had at least one unfilled job opening in November. That is in the top decile of all historical readings. Breaking that number down further, the NFIB highlighted that 29% of those were for skilled workers and 13% were for unskilled workers. Additionally, businesses do plan to fill open positions in the near future. The index for plans to increase employment rose from 18 in October to 21 last month. Overall, more than half of firms said that they either hired or are trying to hire as 30% reported that either cost or quality of labor have been the biggest roadblocks to their business. Given these apparently tight labor conditions, the indices for compensation and plans to increase compensation were both higher.
We would also note that the divergence between businesses wanting/trying to fill positions and declines in the actual number of employees reported is consistent with what we saw in last week's data from the ISM report.
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Rising employment and compensation can be justified when looking at the indices concerning sales and earnings. While these broadly took turns lower this month, they remain at readings that are consistent with more companies than not seeing sales growth. The index for earnings changes turned a bit lower falling from -4 to -7. Despite that, it is still a level that is at the top of its historic range. Additionally, a net 5% of reporting firms saw higher sales over the past three months, down slightly from 6% last month.
In turn, the net percentage of owners expecting sales to be higher also fell to a reading of 10% from 11% last month. Even though sales were a bit weaker, prices have continued to rise. The index for companies reporting higher prices rose from 15 to 18. That is the highest level of that index since a reading of 19 in May of 2018. NFIB highlighted further that the most common businesses to report higher prices were retail (28%) and wholesale (23%).
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Although the decline in expected sales was modest and businesses plan to increase hiring, the index that took the biggest hit in November was the reading for expectations for the economy to improve. That index for the general outlook of business conditions fell 19 points month over month to a low reading of 8. That is the lowest level since March when the index was 3 points lower at 5. Additionally, the only time the index has declined by more in just one month was in November of 2012 when it fell from 0 to -38 in just one month. Other indices like those for expenditures and whether or not it is a good time to expand similarly remain weak, but did not see the same sort of dramatic declines.
Looking at other indices though, this decline appears to have been relatively extreme. A net 5% of owners report inventory levels are too low which is tied with September for a record high. While a greater share of firms plan to increase rather than reduce inventories, that index did fall from a 48-year high of 12 last month down to 5 in November. Despite that historically large single month decline, this monthly reading is still at a strong level.
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Meet the Nasdaq 100's Post-Election Leaders
The Nasdaq 100 finally made a new high on Tuesday before pulling back yesterday, but in the run-up to new highs in the post-election rally, it hasn't been the same old crew of stocks pushing the index higher. While the Nasdaq 100 is up about 12.5% since the election, thirteen stocks are up by more than twice the amount of the index itself. Leading the way higher, Moderna (MRNA) is up over 100% after positive news regarding its vaccine. After MRNA, shares of Pinduoduo (PDD), a Chinese e-commerce play, have rallied more the 50%, rising from $97.72 up to $154.00. Tesla (TSLA) rounds out the top three with a gain of 47% in just the last five weeks. The next two stocks on the list - Applied Materials (AMAT) and Micron (MU) - can hardly be considered emerging stocks. In addition to those two stocks from the semiconductor sector, three others from the sector made the cut (LRCX. MCHP, and QCOM) as chips have been red-hot.
At the bottom of the table, we have also included the performance of the five mega-cap stocks of the Nasdaq 100. While all five stocks outperformed for much of 2020, not a single one of them is outperforming the Nasdaq 100 since Election Day, and only Apple (AAPL) is anywhere close to matching the performance of the index itself.
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The chart below shows the performance of an equally-weighted basket of the five mega-cap stocks over the last year. From 9/2 to 9/23, this basket of stocks pulled back more than 16%, and while it has been steadily grinding higher in the eleven weeks since that low, up until this point, the prior highs from September haven't even come into play.
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Sentiment Still Overwhelmingly Bullish
For the third week in a row, just under half of the respondents to the weekly AAII sentiment survey reported as bullish. This week's bullish sentiment reading came in at 48.06%, which was down just slightly from 49.07% last week. While lower in the past week, bullish sentiment remains elevated in the top decile of readings over the past decade. Granted, it is also still below the high of 55.84% from November 12th. Similarly, the Investor Intelligence survey of equity newsletter writers also saw bullish sentiment drop slightly, falling from 64.7% to 64.4%. But again just like the AAII survey, that is a historically elevated level in the top 3% of all readings since 1963.
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With bullish sentiment lower, a higher percentage of investors reported as bearish. Whereas last week saw bearish sentiment fall to 22.66%, the lowest level since the first week of 2020, this week bearish sentiment rose 4.2 percentage points to 26.86%. That is still below the reading of 27.47% from the last week of November and at the low end of the past few years' range. In terms of bearish sentiment, the Investors Intelligence survey is again echoing these results. This survey saw bearish sentiment rise 0.1 percentage points to 16.8%.
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Overall, sentiment remains heavily in favor of bulls. As shown below, for both the AAII and Investors Intelligence surveys, the bull-bear spreads are at historically high levels.
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Rally To Resume Mid-Month - Typical December Seasonal Pattern
For the most part, this December has unfolded in rather typical seasonal fashion. The market started the month off with solid gains and continued to rally through the fourth trading day before turning somewhat mixed. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ advanced an additional two trading days while DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 see-sawed essentially sideways until yesterday, the seventh trading day of December.
Currently the major indexes are navigating the often-dull period that has historically begun around the fourth trading day of the month through the eighth. Afterwards, later this week into early next week, another patch of weakness is possible. Then right around mid-month, the rally that began in at the beginning of November, is likely to resume. The resumption could be bumpy but once quarterly options expiration passes our Santa Claus Rally will begin on the open of trading on December 24. Since 1969, S&P 500 has enjoyed an average gain of 1.3% during the Santa Claus Rally that spans the last five trading days of this year and the first two trading days of next year.
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Is Inflation Looming?
The November reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well-known measure of inflation, was released Thursday, December 10, and while both the headline and “core” readings (excluding food and energy) came in slightly higher than the Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus, core inflation remains tame at 1.6% over the trailing year. Inflation is likely to pick up as the economy improves and may run a little hotter than we’ve seen in recent years in 2021, but we believe the risks of a substantial inflation surprise over the next year is limited.
“Congress and the Fed provided massive stimulus this year and it seems like that should be inflationary,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, “but it’s important to remember that the stimulus was there to fill a giant hole from lost wages and an economy running well below its potential.”
As shown in today’s LPL Chart of the Day, core inflation on a trailing-year basis still has some catching up to do, although the one-month reading is now largely consistent with pre-Covid levels. inflation over the last decade has remained subdued and largely steady.
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- $FDX
- $HEXO
- $RAD
- $NKE
- $BB
- $CTK
- $GIS
- $ACN
- $TTC
- $LEN
- $WGO
- $JBL
- $DRI
- $UXIN
- $CNTG
- $SAFM
- $MTSC
- $ABM
- $WOR
- $AOUT
- $NDSN
- $APOG
- $DL
- $BLBD
- $AIR
- $ASPU
- $APDN
- $CAMP
- $SCHL
- $QTT
- $SCSC
- $VNCE
- $RFIL
- $CSBR
- $NAV
Monday 12.14.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 12.14.20 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 12.15.20 Before Market Open:
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Tuesday 12.15.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 12.16.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 12.16.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 12.17.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 12.17.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 12.18.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 12.18.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
FedEx Corp. $289.47
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.90 per share on revenue of $19.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 55.38% with revenue increasing by 11.06%. Short interest has decreased by 34.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.0% above its 200 day moving average of $186.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,300 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, April 16, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.
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HEXO Corp. $1.00
HEXO Corp. (HEXO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Monday, December 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $21.62 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 80.00% with revenue increasing by 97.39%. Short interest has decreased by 13.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.7% above its 200 day moving average of $0.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 10.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Rite Aid Corp. $18.46
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $5.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 101.85% with revenue increasing by 7.10%. Short interest has increased by 13.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.8% above its 200 day moving average of $13.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,170 contracts of the $23.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 18.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.7% move in recent quarters.
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Nike Inc $137.41
Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Friday, December 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $10.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.00% with revenue increasing by 2.56%. Short interest has increased by 34.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 30.9% above its 200 day moving average of $104.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,836 contracts of the $135.00 put and 4,558 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
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BlackBerry Limited $8.16
BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.00% with revenue increasing by 274.16%. Short interest has increased by 21.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 67.2% above its 200 day moving average of $4.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, December 1, 2020 there was some notable buying of 34,988 contracts of the $10.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
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CooTek Inc. $4.93
CooTek Inc. (CTK) is confirmed to report earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, December 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share on revenue of $112.20 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of approximately $112.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 485.71% with revenue increasing by 258.81%. Short interest has decreased by 33.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 32.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
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General Mills, Inc. $59.32
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $4.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.05% with revenue increasing by 5.18%. Short interest has increased by 28.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $60.04. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 843 contracts of the $57.50 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
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Accenture Ltd. $245.83
Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, December 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.04 per share on revenue of $11.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.39% with revenue increasing by 0.19%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $210.33. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
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Toro Company $91.52
Toro Company (TTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.52 per share on revenue of $760.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.33% with revenue increasing by 3.59%. Short interest has increased by 33.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.7% below its 200 day moving average of $181.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.
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Lennar Corp. $72.76
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:10 PM ET on Wednesday, December 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.38 per share on revenue of $6.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.74% with revenue decreasing by 6.33%. Short interest has decreased by 4.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $64.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,725 contracts of the $76.50 call expiring on Thursday, December 24, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
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2020.10.23 15:53 FrantaNautilus Supporting Astro Slide (Status of Linux on Planet Computers devices)
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2019.10.16 06:18 Quynh_MobiGo Smartphone nhái BlackBerry PassPort bây giờ ra sao?
2019.08.14 01:43 monichan69 Panduan Download Aplikasi Poker Online Asia
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Untuk buat yakni baik dan bisa pula menang di judi poker online Indonesia. Karena memang pastinya anda bisa untuk memperoleh keuntungan. Demikian artikel yang bisa saya sampaikan semoga artikel tersebut bermanfaat untuk anda semua para pecinta game poker online. |
2019.06.28 06:30 XantDee So... FEV and mutations?
2019.01.22 23:11 Leilani_H WF Yangmei Berry (SC)