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Top line - Global Climate plan

1. For individuals-

Your ultimate POWER, your freest one, or at least one you can make if you accept the mission that corporations and thus government and all we consider to be powerful fear is predictably your dollar(s). By mass action- organized controlled spend, in People spend the most on their living environments, rent or own, and by using
I offer a simple contract to guarantee the single greatest year in climate action, measurable in your lifestyle, investments of time and money with other people similarly motivated, organized into a corporation based on your cooperation. This forms a multi-billion dollar corporation if we hit the number of members, and neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump would be able to stop slow the momentum,

1. 15 minutes to 3 hours a week, and additional review, and discussion in our in person and online forums. Aid and abet productive conversations and mass synchronous discussion of similar topics, and developing an educated protocol, to be used in additional, optional time in our chosen forums. It would be to use “social media” or electronic forms as a supplement, like a briefing or homework aid in-person conversations and interactions
2. Committing your living space to a greener standard, meant to be flexible enough to let people’s creativity shine, in their responsive design, R 20 envelope, sunlight for rooms, sound minimums and maximums, ;

If you rent,
You are promising to get to an apartment that meets most of these standards asap.
You are learning about how it works what to look for from us, and your research - even 10 phone calls to prospective landlords to tell them your interest in living in these standards and report back, will be a weapon of mighty power and influence, and aid to the cause.
tell your land lord you are going to be looking to go green with our standards, and ask politely if they will be looking to invest in next generation upgrades.
Your commitment to rent with some property to our standards is going to allow us to get new buildings built and other buildings retrofitted to those standards.
You join list of committed tenants, which financiers like- steady customer base
If you own,
You also understand your role as that rare breed but super important- early adopters- purchasing the new technologies, and even the showing it off- changes things. You know staying ahead is going to mean you pay more and upgrade more often because the later stuff will make the current stuff seem tame.. You’re getting a new community, for whom keeping up with the Joneses will take on new deimesnsons
You are looking for financing for some home upgrades in the next year, and advocating for C-PACE or R-PACE financing to develop a next generation, to make the financing easy- but the financing is the action. Sales, at scale will drive the market.

2. For the Government- Economic policy proposal

To resolve the still un resolved global threat, of overwhelming proof as well as a consensus of scientific bodies so high worldwide as to be 1. Manufactured 2. Too late- waiting for action until such consensus certainty of negative circumstances can be proof of poor security management. Government must be looking ahead of overheating and destabilizing world economic, food, financial, and physical security- increased risk of famine, wars for resources, scarcity of resources no living person has ever seen, collapse of governments, possibly billions of refugees, with a global sea level rise currently scheduled by 2100 to be above that of global human habitats currently housing more than a billion people, those housing units being completely uninhabitable 30 years before that. Likely though, greater than 40% we see most of that by 2050 on our current course
human that a global temperI refer to the responsibility already enshrined to the United States as a whole through the text of the Clean Air Act, right after the Economics which is I must admit the more exciting matter, and actually fits well with the Job of EPA administrator.

777 Plan

With monetary economics as well as
7.7 Trillion Dollars including t US spend over 2 years, invested
1.4 Trillion from US Treasury
700 Billion immediately-
700 Billion deposit payment coupon paid out in 7 years on financing for next generation commercial and residential buildings
Second program
2 Trillion dollars only available to American citizens, but meant for their public funds
6 +% growth, being modest and in a successful but possible out come 3 year program, as there will be huge improvements in skills and technologies year over year that will change models and economic costs.
Amounts to about ?50? Billion per “average” state, but allocated per capita as in the Constitution, to develop internally and as part of a greater project and competition between states, to a. train workers/research/statewide planning of infrastructure and b. throw them at big projects c. find unique technology applications and design specifications that 1. Meet national standards 2. Upgrade and become national standards 3. Showcase an efficiency your state came up with or chose exceeding early specifications, that they successfully implemented
In fact it is for this uncertain technology upgrade strategy this is intended to fund, to allow for business certainty in the US and globally, while being able to say we’re doing enough to mitigate the risk. This investment is necessary for the United States to keep up, as it has fallen behind in per capita infrastructure spend and it shows Much of the system was built in the 50’s or before and lightly added to since. Union Station in DC was a Teddy Roosevelt era build- 1905
7 trillion is meant to be financed through an application of C-PACE deals to residential homes, industry and commercial structures
5 trillion of which 2 Trillion to the Global South and United States recent entanglement countries to provide more or less the same goal 15-25% of buil
W
public private partnership to provide funds for the first two step Phase 1 of upgrading the entire built infrastructure of the United States of America (90 percent ball park) Housing Transportation government buildings energy supply and transmission systems, water, everything, where necessary.
2 Trillion is also issued in government building, water energy power fuel systems and trans state and local planning, limited quanitity to Americans, and maintained in the community where the bond originated, with a state specific design. High yield - at 7% is the plan, to lead with making investing in shared infrastructure something that not only paid off as a good investment but produced changes in places you visit and see with the money you saved or worked hard for.
This would raise interest rates globally so I have some flexibility on this point. It also makes the payback considerable over the 7 years,
Economics of scale, in physics and in monetary economics it works the same- to get it done big, relatively cheap, going big, and going near breakneck speed is best, with the caveat* that you still need to go big with something that works on a lot of levels so you want to have tested through the relevant technologies.
That’s my derivation, but it stems from the traditional view of the economics of scale, and fits the actions of the most successful builders in human history, imparting the expected and usually honored tradition of governments to build roads- the Romans. And build they did- to last, to say they don’t build them like they used to, well, to last 2000 years, yeah, that’s a safe statement. They had their armies build and they went en mass doing multi-year projects with many thousands of men, that are used today in places far outside Italy. This is the idea here as well
To build any widgets, the cost per unit goes down as people,and the machines they build get better. While the cost of replacing water, data, energy, waste, goods and human movement infrastructure sounds expensive, and it is, it is obviously simpler and cheaper than doing each one piecemeal, like 10x or more cheaper
It is the reason for the multi phase- I’ve been calling 2 Phase, but the budget defined for a minimum of two years will certainly develop and require adjustments for the 2nd year, which will hopefully provide enough insight to plan the rest of the work, what, how, how long, and how much needs to be done to finish a broad upgrade of the remaining 75- 85% of United States, or do we exceed expectations, set at a level to allow such a thing, meaning we can do it!!! Also, the Obama Stimulus and the Biden IRA/Infrastructure bills should really be mile stone phases of existing progress on similar scales and leading to this.
hough you have to work out a bit, train, and test some big things, so when you go full speed on building it is sure, and a huge upgrade on technology, and built to last. So two phases huge for now in goals but less than half the total, to ramp up, select best technologies, and utilize the “laboratory of the States, including defense engineers as engineers will be in short supply, scholarships for energy research for those with bachelors and work on the job/learn science/ energycraft jobs by the thousands, and even expressing math problems in practical problems in math classes at all levels, as well as funding for energy and 7 Trillion for this one
If we liken government infrastructure to normal asset investment costs, more than reasonable that's what they are- investment of 4% annually are expected, of total revenues. Even if we did state and federal - think it'd be on the order of on average- I think it is best to do big cycles then bridge- of near 100 billion a year, every year, or about the current 'milestone' of the so called Bi Partisan Infrastructure law, voted on by a few Republicans(it is the largest investment since the Great Depression in US infrastructure) but is really only near to what we should have been spending almost every year, to maintain, let alone grow, which we have. So we are long overdue, with much of our major infrastructure essentially ceased since the 1950’s as well as space exploration, well below also actually what is practical financial sense to invest in logistical systems and environments humans live in.

Congress already determined who the culprit ultimately responsible for

The Clean Air Act -

Congressional Text defining the United States’ responsibility to address Climate Change
VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:09 Jan 27, 2023 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 9001 Sfmt 9001 G:\COMP\ENVIR1\CAACAA4U.BEL HOLC January 27, 2023 G:\COMP\ENVIR1\CLEAN AIR ACT.XML As Amended Through P.L. 117-286, Enacted December 27, 2022 7
Sec. 103 CLEAN AIR ACT 5Section 901(a)(2)(C) of Public Law 101–549 (104 Stat. 2700) added a new paragraph (8) at the end of section 103(b). Paragraph (8) probably was intended to have been added after paragraph (7), as it is shown here. in the examination and evaluation of research progress and proposals and to avoid duplication of research; and (5) conduct and promSec. 615. Authority of Administrator. Sec. 616. Transfers among Parties to Montreal Protocol. Sec. 617. International cooperation. Sec. 618. Miscellaneous provisions. TITLE I—AIR POLLUTION PREVENTION AND CONTROL PART A—AIR QUALITY AND EMISSION LIMITATIONS FINDINGS AND PURPOSES SEC. 101. (a) The Congress finds— (1) that the predominant part of the Nation’s population is located in its rapidly expanding metropolitan and other urban areas, which generally cross the boundary lines of local jurisdictions and often extend into two or more States; (2) that the growth in the amount and complexity of air pollution brought about by urbanization, industrial development, and the increasing use of motor vehicles, has resulted in mounting dangers to the public health and welfare, including injury to agricultural crops and livestock, damage to and the deterioration of property, and hazards to air and ground transportation; (3) that air pollution prevention (that is, the reduction or elimination, through any measures, of the amount of pollutants produced or created at the source) and air pollution control at its source is the primary responsibility of States and local governments; and (4) that Federal financial assistance and leadership is essential for the development of cooperative Federal, State, regional, and local programs to prevent and control air pollution. (b) The purposes of this title are— (1) to protect and enhance the quality of the Nation’s air resources so as to promote the public health and welfare and the productive capacity of its population; (2) to initiate and accelerate a national research and development program to achieve the prevention and control of air pollution; (3) to provide technical and financial assistance to State and local governments in connection with the development and execution of their air pollution prevention and control programs; and (4) to encourage and assist the development and operation of regional air pollution prevention and control programs. (c) POLLUTION PREVENTION.—A primary goal of this Act is to encourage or otherwise promote reasonable Federal, State, and local governmental actions, consistent with the provisions of this Act, for pollution prevention. ø42 U.S.C. 7401¿ COOPERATIVE ACTIVITIES AND UNIFORM LAWS SEC. 102. (a) The Administrator shall encourage cooperative activities by the States and local governments for the prevention and control of air pollution; encourage the enactment of improved VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:09 Jan 27, 2023 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 9001 Sfmt 9001 G:\COMP\ENVIR1\CAACAA4U.BEL HOLC January 27, 2023 G:\COMP\ENVIR1\CLEAN AIR ACT.XML As Amended Through P.L. 117-286, Enacted December 27, 2022 Sec. 103 CLEAN AIR ACT 6 and, so far as practicable in the light of varying conditions and needs, uniform State and local laws relating to the prevention and control of air pollution; and encourage the making of agreements and compacts between States for the prevention and control of air pollution. (b) The Administrator shall cooperate with and encourage cooperative activities by all Federal departments and agencies having functions relating to the prevention and control of air pollution, so as to assure the utilization in the Federal air pollution control program of all appropriate and available facilities and resources within the Federal Government. (c) The consent of the Congress is hereby given to two or more States to negotiate and enter into agreements or compacts, not in conflict with any law or treaty of the United States, for (1) cooperative effort and mutual assistance for the prevention and control of air pollution and the enforcement of their respective laws relating thereto, and (2) the establishment of such agencies, joint or otherwise, as they may deem desirable for making effective such agreements or compacts. No such agreement or compact shall be binding or obligatory upon any State a party thereto unless and until it has been approved by Congress. It is the intent of Congress that no agreement or compact entered into between States after the date of enactment of the Air Quality Act of 1967, which relates to the control and abatement of air pollution in an air quality control region, shall provide for participation by a State which is not included (in whole or in part) in such air quality control region.

3. Science, engineering and Counter-geoengineering

Putting 30+ pounds (15 Kilos) of CO2 per person in the developed world is already massive geoengineering. These are calculations that can verified, and should be verified by your Country’s oil production divided by its people, and the kiddos should know that math, and we should prove it in front of Congress. OOOOH me, me I have the experiment I wish to mostly replicate with maybe some flair to demonstrate CO2’s warming effect people can do in their homes and we have a talk about the numbers, because most people are stumped to hear or think about how much that is - the US burns 19 million barrels of oil per DAY. the barrels stack ed would be larger than the Capitol building I think. Every day? I am certain this is usually a shock to people and change their perspective before even getting to the fact that CO2 warms. So there are some core facts that are both more effective and critical to the discussion, and what those are should be matters of some discussion. Here and in other places I try to compile these in broadly understandable terms, walking smart people through land mine political orientations with the items they understand better than most of the climate concerned, but in different ways. Thats the theory we are testing anyway.
Other 2023 rankings included...

• warmest year on record for land and ocean areas individually;
• warmest year on record for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (land and ocean areas combined),
  • warmest year for land and ocean individually in the North,
  • 2nd-warmest year for land and warmest year for ocean in the South;
• 40th-warmest year for the Antarctic,
• 4th-warmest year for the Arctic.

For more regional details and 2023 climate statistics, see the 2023 Global Climate Report from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
Climate lag- the delay between emissions and actual warming, with estimates ranging between 0, 40 and 60 years, hangs over this all, and while the need must be - to look like we take this seriously, we must achieve a sizeable emissions cut as soon as possible, and plans for at least a quarter, and possibly 2 consecutive at deep cuts 50% to have a hope of answering that question.
But, it does require us to look for additional ways to minimize the energy imbalance and figure out what our best options are, that minimize the imbalance.
This means trying many things, several times to see what works and what can be scaled up cheaply, because of course the actions taken will have to be massive in scale. Every fix has its own potential risk. Something I acknowledge my own attention to, and will focus energy on is soil- as well as plant and bacterial energy cycles, animal too, for possible scalable solutions I have been some what remiss in.
My recent proposed actions are based in part and fit in part to the work of Dr. Hansen’s lab, as he is an OG of the Climate Movement and Action- testifying before Congress, and is proven his calculations correct. I agree with all of his findings based on my knowledge of the assumptions, and shortcomings of the current modeling paradigm, and the conclusions that research counter geoengineering is
A short bit about him here.
James Hansen's 1988 testimony after 30 years. How did he do? (youtube.com)
And the man himself- as well as his comparisons to the Venus atmosphere I didn’t know he was involved in.
James Hansen: Why I must speak out about climate change (youtube.com)
Some of my conclusions and interpretations may turn out to be somewhat different, but correct in principle and conclusion, on the order of magnitude, and the actions recommended will stand, but also need updating to include the Polar treaty specifications
Analysis and next steps based on Dr. James Hansens’ most recent paper, Global Warming in the Pipeline
http://www.columbia.edu/\~jeh1/Documents/PipelinePaper.2023.05.19.pdf
in which he lays out a 100-year gap between emissions and warming, -in the Pipeline means we and an expectation for the warming to double in speed, until eventually reaching 10 degrees C, or 18 F degrees hotter on average day.
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ∼4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2), with a likely range of 3.5-5.5°C.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2%times$CO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone — after slow feedbacks operate — is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in the following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years. The enormity of the consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a new approach to addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential requirement to "save" young people and future generations is to return to Holocene-level global temperature.
Dr. Hansen’s top-line goals:
1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions
2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs,
3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made “geo-transformation”
of Earth’s climate.
ECS- Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is the projected eventual rise in global temperature
As of today

1. 10 degrees - 18 F is the projected eventual rise in global temperature based on emissions already in the pipeline when lag factors catch up by the Hansen/Columbia team, which differs significantly from the IPCC’s estimates
2. 4-6 degrees C 11 degrees F is the projected eventual rise in global temperature when lag factors catch up by the IPCC team
3. 40 years is the IPCC, as well as Exxon’s estimate of the length of time it takes for CO2 emitted today to fully impact the heating of the earth
4. 100 years, is how long the full effects of emissions take to fully kick- in Hansen’s paper
5. And this is the primary cause of the Hansen team’s temperature difference from the IPCC’s
6. Cutting carbon emissions May take decades to slow warming.

Conclusion: Cutting carbon emissions is essential then but far and away not enough to be able to slow what’s been started.
Energy reflection layering is necessary to counteract previous emissions.
SRM Solar Radiation Management is priority 1, especially as it is by definition going to have to cover large areas.
There are many forms, especially biological, with similar or even greater caution, and promise as the “harder”energy techniques to capture and utilize solar energy, and process carbon, and we must understand maximize and implement projects

Questions

Does this mean we effectively feel the effects of Kennedy or Clinton era warming for fast feedback?
Are we able to measure the increase in solar radiation absorbed directly, from readings at a single point?

***Three ideas for focused groups to provide reports on

1. Produce separate options on a model of near-term effects of geoengineering, at different engagement levels and cross-use, pros and cons including environmental impact:
   
2. Land Artificial snow distribution on ice, at the poles on the temperature of the water, and what the minimum intervention to see a result would be. Test out weighted on square corners insulative airtight tarps tested in thick and thin to cover areas and possibly form
   

B. Water artificial ice layers in the water, buoyant and resistant to salt water, large Due to sheer quantity on site or near on-site manufacturing facilities on land near the sea for processing to sun-shield materials
C. Air airborne layering of reflective, CONTRAILS
Undoing recent boat fuel standards limiting reflective components (sulfides?) in diesel. Proposing dirtying along existing shipping and fuel routes, which seem to be warming possibly as a result of reduced reflections in fuel burnt

1. Mapping polar coastal regions and maximizing

(Workforce projections, cost and time)
Mapping polar regions with large teams on foot, cataloging life and conditions, and maximizing snow-like cover.
Underwater and seismic mappings for all polar areas. Cap and cover methane sources. Which areas to begin: as much as can be mapped without international incident- we can start without the Russians but cannot finish.

1. Build a material-accurate reference scale model of the earth. It will probably require a new version which should begin construction within 3-6 months of the operation of the first. 

2. Boat and submarine mapping of methane leaks, methyl clathrate deposits and thermally anomalous regions, and as much polar coast as possible, which involves Russia, though Antarctica, Alaska, and Canada are available to build the template operations for while the other situation remains tense. In any case, this will be more than enough work in the short term to solidify the models, and help from other bodies should be considered. 

Get more data on locations and volumes of methyl clathrates

1. Increase by a factor of not less than 10 a network of methane and CO2 sensors capable of detecting changes broadly to Arctic and methyl clathrate zone emissions

Darrell Prince
https://lnkd.in/e6vGe_8W

Obligatory, this happened when I was around 13, I am now 24M.
My mom picked up my sister and I after school, and at this time my sister is like 7 and I am 13. After she picked us up, we went to the grocery store so she could get stuff. This store run took forever first off, so of course I can’t wait to get home. Im tired from walking around the store and dealing with my sister, and my mother being very indecisive due to the couponing
(Circa 2010’s couponing was thing and looking back on it you go mom, always making sure you took care of us, and shout to my sister, she’s about to graduate college soon)
After being forced to load the groceries of course, my mom asked me to take the shopping cart back. The cart storage was really far from where we parked and me being the lazy, adolescent, basically pre-teen I was at the time, thought it be a good idea to run and push the cart to the storage area. I’m sure you all know how those shopping carts have faulty wheels… well this cart had one and after I pushed it, it took a turn for a random persons truck. Just my luck the owner was actually in it, and as my mom was just getting inside the car she didn’t see or hear it, but the guy got out his car and began to yell saying, “hey you, you scratched my paint job, you dented my truck etc..” I couldn’t hear the rest as I ran away and begged my mom to drive off.
No insurance claims, police reports, nor did I get punishment from mom, but as I’m older now I think about the lessons learned. How I can think before I act, and how you shouldn’t push carts like that in the open parking lot. I often think about the guy as well, and if he still thinks about that kid that left the dent and scratch. Sir, I want you to know I’m sorry, and if it’s any consolation, I now drive a truck that has a dent and scratch.
“TL;DR: I caused legitimate property damage to someone’s car because I was too lazy to put a shopping cart back.”

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The postmodern United States has faced the pressing obstacle of food insecurity, but the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, has resolved this issue. Introduced in 1964, SNAP engineered a financial support system for low-income families through food-purchasing assistance. To properly gauge the effectiveness of SNAP, the program must be evaluated in four separate ways. First, it is significant to note fraud’s previously adverse effect on food stamps, yet more crucial to emphasize how SNAP eradicated fraud. Secondly, SNAP will be determined as a generally inclusive program that has faced occasional instances of restriction. Thirdly, SNAP will be assessed as a tool for eliminating poverty. Lastly, SNAP will receive praise for its effective nutritional competencies. Although at times SNAP has been troubled by fraud and exclusivity, the program has evolved to consistently provide a stable support system for economically disadvantaged citizens.
Background SNAP’s creation in 1964 was not the first food stamp program (FSP) in American history. In fact, the program hinged on prior success with food stamps. In 1939, the United States was still battling the Great Depression, and as a result, there was a food surplus and high unemployment (“Short History”). These conditions lead to the United States experimenting with a food stamp plan. The plan worked by giving out stamps to the needy who applied who then used the stamps by exchanging them for a food product. These foods were typically cheaper and in surplus. Still, a wide range of foods were available for stamp exchange, varying from eggs to pork to fruits (DPLA). This FSP lasted from only 1939 to 1943, but these four years made a substantial impact. By October 31, 1940, the program was in operation or had been announced for 218 areas with a combined population of approximately 39 million people (DPLA). Participation was widespread and plentiful. At any one point during these four years, food stamps helped support approximately 20 million citizens (“Short History”). The spring of 1943 marked the ending of a beginning for food stamps as “the conditions that brought the program into being--unmarketable food surpluses and widespread unemployment--no longer existed" (“Short History”).
Although the Food Stamp Program was gone, the desire for them remained ubiquitous among Americans. The next two decades were filled with studies, reports, and legislative proposals. Acting in the interests of the American People, senators such as Aiken, La Follette, Humphrey, Kefauver, and Symington sought to pass food stamp program legislation (“Short History”). Finally in 1961, 18 years after the end of the first program, President John F. Kennedy announced a pilot FSP. On May 29, 1961, Mr. and Mrs. Alderson Muncy of Paynesville, West Virginia, were the first food stamp recipients. Three years later, the pilot program had expanded to 380,000 participants (“Short History”). August 31, 1964, marked the day when the pilot FSP became a permanent reality. On a warm and sunny day foreshadowing the great progress to come, Lyndon B. Johnson signed onto the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Johnson declared that “as a permanent program, the food stamp plan will be one of our most valuable weapons for the war on poverty”, alluding to its purpose of enabling “low income families to increase their food expenditures, using their own dollars” (APP). Food stamps would eventually become America’s largest poverty assistance program, but not without a share of troubles along the way.
Fraud Although SNAP was hindered by fraud in its early years, EBTs helped mitigate fraud and eventually almost completely eradicate it. When SNAP was enacted into law, observers were concerned about possible fraud and abuse within the program. Throughout the late 20th century, these concerns became a reality, emerging as a large threat to the security and stability of SNAP (Tejani). In a 1981 New York Times article William Shaker, executive director of the National Tax Limitation Committee, noted ''food stamps score right at the top of the list in terms of misspent federal funds” (Roberts). The primary form of fraud was trafficking, which involved individuals and stores turning SNAP benefits into cash. In 1993, 3.8% of SNAP benefits were trafficked (Bartfeld 227). When the 24 billion dollar budget (Sugarman) of SNAP in 1993 is accounted for, the result is approximately 91 million dollars stripped from the needy. Faced with rising criticism about fraud in SNAP, the USDA was pressured and left in limbo about how to address the situation.

The Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) would be the answer to the problem fraud presented. An EBT is an “electronic system that allows a recipient to authorize transfer of their government benefits from a federal account to a retailer account to pay for products received” (“Short History”). Funds are delivered on a debit card. Its effectiveness lies in creating a record of each food stamp transaction. As a result, it is easier to identify violations and eradicate fraud. EBTs first appeared in 1984 but it was only until 2004 that they became mandated, and thus the standard (“Farmer’s Market”). The effectiveness of EBTs cannot be overstated. By 2010, the fraud rate had declined threefold from 1993 to a mere 1.3 percent. Judith Bartfeld, a University of Wisconsin professor and Food Security Research and Policy Specialist, attributes this decline to the shift from paper coupons to Electronic Benefit Transfers and their improved tracking of SNAP purchases (Bartfeld 227). 

Outside of EBTs, however, the Department of Agriculture has taken many other steps. The USDA enforces rules against trafficking and reducing overpayment rates through annual quality control audits. The result: the level of fraud in SNAP has become substantially less than in other assistance programs. (Bartfeld 227). In one such attempt to suppress fraud, households must contact the local SNAP office to report if their income increases dramatically. They also must reapply for SNAP periodically — typically every six to 12 months for most families and every 12 to 24 months for older adults and people with disabilities (CBBP 3). Household income is constantly being supervised to make sure that families opting into SNAP need support. If a family no longer needs food stamps, their income will show this, and the family will not receive support anymore. Instead, the benefits they had can be funneled back into the program and given to families in greater need of help. In general, fraud has consistently decreased throughout SNAP’s history, serving as a testament to the invention of the EBT and the proactive and perseverant work of the USDA.
Inclusion Although at times discriminatory, SNAP has generally been accessible to citizens regardless of identity. Even at its inception in 1964, SNAP “prohibited against discrimination on bases of race, religious creed, national origin, or political beliefs” (“Short History”). Notably, in the same year, the Civil Rights Act was passed, which was the “most sweeping civil rights legislation since Reconstruction” (“Civil”). The alignment of these two events positions SNAP as a trailblazer program. As one of the first programs under the Civil Rights Act, it emerged as a benchmark of success in the fight against racism.
By 1970, the FSP had expanded to US islands and territories and had also created a sole national eligibility standard (“Short History”). In this, SNAP addressed a former shortcoming of the program: divided and often unfair standards between different states and regions. The eligibility standards have changed slightly throughout the years, but in general, have specified that households must have a gross monthly income below around 130% of the federal poverty level to be eligible for SNAP (Han 467). Furthermore, the program is scaled such that households with the lowest incomes receive larger benefits than households closer to the poverty line (CBBP 3). SNAP executes two amazing ideas here. First, they make sure that not only people below the poverty line can obtain help. There is often a notion that the group just above a cutoff gets the shortest end of the stick, and is in a more unfortunate position than people receiving help. SNAP counters this by including households over the poverty line in eligibility standards. This has been proven effective, as a substantial number of households with income between 100 and 200% of the poverty line have taken advantage of SNAP’s support (Han 484). Then, to ensure true equality, the program is scaled such that the poorest households receive the most help while households who just meet the eligibility standards receive the least help in the program. The result is a balanced system where SNAP helps at different levels to provide an equal overall standing for all participants.
Still, SNAP has fallen short at times. For the first thirteen years in SNAP’s history, a cooking facility was required of households to receive benefits, but the citizens who didn’t have cooking facilities were often the poorest and couldn’t financially afford such amenities (“Short History”). As a result, the most disadvantaged citizens were left without assistance. Furthermore, budget cutbacks have sometimes forced SNAP to limit who receives access to support. In 1996, SNAP was forced to eliminate the eligibility of most legal immigrants. Luckily, six years later, eligibility was restored to qualified aliens who had been in the United States for at least five years (“Short History”). The trajectory of inclusion within SNAP is generally upward, as it continuously strives to create a fair program. In a sixty-year history, there will inevitably be points of weakness, yet SNAP has strongly combatted these moments by ensuring that all who need support can receive it.
Effect on Poverty Stellar participation, combined with effective regulations has led to SNAP having a profuse impact on poverty. Throughout its first decade, SNAP’s participation grew exponentially; this was a result of the program expanding geographically (“Short History”). SNAP started at 500,000 users in 1964 but by 1975 had rose to 19.2 million people. The USDA estimated that at this point approximately 40 million Americans were eligible to receive support (Claffey, Stucker 44). Throughout the 1980s and 1990s participation remained at a generally constant ratio of eligible citizens participating. Factors influencing the participation rate throughout these decades did not have to do with the effectiveness of SNAP as a program. For example, after the 1980 and 1982 recessions, the macroeconomy increased, causing fewer people to be eligible for SNAP (Bartfeld 12). As a result, participation went down but this was not of any relation to SNAP’s effectiveness; the percentage of those eligible to participating remained relatively unchanged. From 1990 to 1994 there was a surge in participation as a result of growth in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program. AFDC participants were automatically eligible for food stamps, thus causing an increase in food stamp participation. The 1980s and 1990s had a substantial number of eligible households participating in SNAP, which was already impressive, but the program would soon reach new heights.
Onwards from the 2000s, there has been a jump in SNAP beneficiaries and the implementation of EBTs is entirely responsible for this. EBTs were introduced in the early 2000s, and between 2000 to 2014 the number of recipients exploded 272% (Han 467) from 17.2 million participants out of 47 million eligible to 46.7 million out of 65 million (“Yearly”). In 2000, 37% of eligible recipients took advantage of the program, but only fourteen years later this number almost doubled to 72%. This jump is an outlier, far exceeding any other period of growth in SNAP history. This suggests that EBTs are solely responsible for the ascent in participation. The appeal of EBTs lies in how they conceal that a consumer is on SNAP. Before EBTs, people were less willing to put their pride aside, use a brightly colored stamp, and reap the benefits of SNAP. But when this stamp turned into a regular debit card, more households joined, and participation skyrocketed.
Greenmarket, a network of farmers markets in New York City, is a compelling case study that measures EBTs impact. Greenmarket was given a grant to evaluate the implementation of EBT in their markets. The result was astonishing. In 2008 they received $101,000 in SNAP sales compared to their $251,000 in 2009 (“Farmer’s Market). As a result of implementing EBT, sales boosted 2.5 times. The boosted sales at Greenmarket reflect the capabilities of EBT to attract SNAP users.

Along with high participation rates, SNAP has effectively reduced poverty for users. Although SNAP was enacted as only a minor part of a social safety net, it has grown to become a key structure in the social support system (Bartfeld 225). In a typical year, SNAP lowers the poverty rate by 5 to 10 percent. Furthermore, SNAP lowers the deep poverty percentage-the fraction of people living on less than half of the poverty line- by 10 to 20 percent in a year (Bartfeld 8). Out of any socioeconomic group, people in deep poverty are most in need of help. SNAP redefines finances for many of these users, giving the poorest in society much-needed support. When it comes to the idea of a support system, truly no other program has as much impact on citizens as SNAP. Firstly, SNAP purchases are not taxed. This gives families saving each penny a little more comfort and also ensures that users have to give absolutely nothing on each SNAP purchase. Secondly, because SNAP helps households pay for food, it gives families more cushion in other expenditures. SNAP reduces the risk that households will fall behind on their nonfood essential expenses. This includes housing by 7.2%, utilities by 15.3%, and risk of medical hardship by 8.5% (Guttierez and Schaefer 774). And when it comes to food, SNAP participants receive remarkable support. SNAP participants are between 14.9 and 36.6 percent less likely to be food insecure than nonparticipants (Gunderson 97). At its minimum, SNAP reduces rates of food insecurity by 15%. Throughout SNAP’s history, many have criticized the program, noting that it is too costly or goes to those who don’t need it. The facts say otherwise. SNAP costs 0.5% of the US GDP, but the SNAP’s impacts far outweigh that cost. For the 0.5% in GDP, America gets a 16 percent reduction in poverty. Furthermore, the poverty gap, which measures the depth of poverty, is cut by 41% (Bartfeld 76). With SNAP, America gets an effective program that cuts poverty metrics by double-digit percentages. It is the most costly support program in America, but the impacts of SNAP justify the cost tenfold. 

Nutrition There is a common misconception that SNAP is unhealthy and causes obesity; if anything, SNAP reduces obesity rates. SNAP benefits cannot be used to buy alcohol, cigarettes, or tobacco (Dixon), three items linked with obesity. SNAP also gives eligibility to many whole foods in an attempt to create a balanced diet. However, many users, burdened with limited finances, will understandably choose to buy processed food as it contains more calories at a cheaper price. Still, the presence of food causes less obesity than no food at all. Studies have found that food-insecure children are at least twice as likely to report being in poor health compared to food-secure children (Gunderson and Ziliak). Charles Baum of Middle Tennessee State University concluded from his studies that “the Food Stamp Program has probably had virtually an immeasurably small impact on the growing prevalence of obesity” (Baum 645). Craig Gunderson, a professor at the University of Illinois with a research emphasis on SNAP, takes this hypothesis one step further. Gunderson first notes the inverse relationship between obesity rates and an increase in income. Given this, he argues “it appears unlikely that receiving more money to purchase food would lead to higher rates of obesity. Thus we would anticipate that SNAP recipients are less likely to be obese than eligible nonrecipients.” (Gunderson 99). The overt intention of SNAP is to provide support for underprivileged households, not to increase nutritional output within this group of society. Still, SNAP is successful in keeping obesity from plaguing its program.
Conclusion SNAP is a progressive program that has redefined the social support system as it is known. Every year, millions of Americans have found solace in their card or stamp when paying for food. Their overwhelming faith in SNAP proves the program’s value. This faith also reflects the improvements SNAP has made to become a champion for underprivileged citizens. Years of legislation and additions such as the EBT have left the program better than it once was. When Lyndon B. Johnson enacted SNAP into law, he declared the program as a “weapon on poverty.” Sixty years, and a whole lot of stamps later, Johnson remains correct.

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Greetings CMS affiliates / CMS aficionado, healthcare insurance stakeholders, healthcare insurance investors, healthcare workers, and other stakeholders (hopefully no CEO of the big 4, or else Reddit might throw this in the dustbin. Don't let them in OK???):
Welcome to another episode of a very dry and boring topic discussion, which is the most recent release of "CMS Finalizes Payment Updates for 2025 Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D Programs" discussion. The entire document is 194 pages long, and 165 pages of texts, whatever pages left of tables and charts and numbers, and a lot of excel attachments. I will be lying if I told you I read it all (I skimmed it, but my skimming skill is still probably better than 99.95% of degenerates from another reddit), and my job is to bring you some information from this beast of a document so that you may have a small % of the knowledge of what may come to pass. That being said, please note that I am NOT a CFO, COO, CMO, or any C suites member, and therefore my job is much easier. I only need to opine, as my job is not dependent on reading every syllable and figure out its meaning and the associated excel cells related to those, and Risk Adjustments / Quality Bonus Payment parts are for someone else to beat their head over with.
Before we get started on this multiple part DD - and trust me it needs to be in multiple parts or else I will not have a job by next week, we should first start with some history lessons, why Medicare Advantage (or part C for those who are geeks) exists, its original purpose (other than fattening UNH/HUM/Aetna/Centene/Cigna EPS), its evolution, and why CMS may have had enough and ergo released their 2025 finalized payment to the absolute horror of almost every Healthcare Insurance company except maybe Clover. To do this, we must first start with history lessons, which is where I start as part 1:
Medicare, and inception of Medicare Advantage - a very brief overview of history:

1. https://www.cms.gov/about-cms/who-we-are/history
2. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2017/dec/evolution-private-plans-medicare
3. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3117270/

For those of you who likes to read through links and be an absolute chad just like your good old grad school days, please use the above 3 links and some google searches, then proceed to skip the rest of the discussion until the next set of links. For all of you other folks who don't like to read think tanks, pubmed articles, and good old google searches to self educate, I will attempt to do some short and sweet broad-strokes using the provided links (don't sue me if I am bad at explaining history lessons, I didn't finish school to be like Indiana Jones for Medicare. And since I am in Reddit and not doing a real publication, please excuse the fact I didn't use AMA citation format, as I don't really want to do it unless I absolutely have to, so please don't make me do it, I have a real life now I think):
Medicare & Medicaid¹
On July 30, 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed into law the bill that led to the Medicare and Medicaid. The original Medicare program included Part A (Hospital Insurance) and Part B (Medical Insurance). Today these 2 parts are called “Original Medicare.” Over the years, Congress has made changes to Medicare, and more people have become eligible.
In 1972, Medicare was expanded to cover the disabled, people with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis or kidney transplant, and people 65 or older that select Medicare coverage. More benefits, like prescription drug coverage, have been offered.
Medicare advantage - beginnings, A Program in Infancy (1966–1982)²
Medicare has involved HMOs since 1966. Because these private plans use salaried physicians, they were originally paid on a reasonable-cost basis for services that Medicare otherwise would have paid on a reasonable-charge basis. Under the 1972 Social Security Amendments, preexisting plans could continue to be paid on a reasonable-cost basis, but new plans would operate on a risk-sharing contract. By 1979, 65 HMOs were contracting with Medicare, although only one had a risk-sharing contract.
The Rise of HMOs (1982–1997)^2,3
The 1972 Amendments gave the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) — subsequently renamed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) — the authority to conduct demonstrations of payment models that might reduce program spending, improve health care quality, or both. Demonstrations indicated that providers in HMOs seemed to take more conservative approaches to treatment and engaged in more preventive care and that, compared to people in traditional Medicare, enrollees in HMOs were more likely to be younger and lower-income, report themselves in excellent health, and indicate that a relationship with a single physician was not very important. However, HCFA estimated that it paid at least 15 percent more for enrollees in Medicare HMOs than for demographically similar beneficiaries in traditional Medicare. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) established a capitated payment system with prospectively set payment rates per enrollee for private plans. The Medicare Advantage (MA) program, formally Part C of Medicare, originated with the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA), which authorized Medicare to contract with risk-based private health plans, or those plans that accept full responsibility (i.e., risk) for the costs of their enrollees' care in exchange for a prospective, monthly, per-enrollee payment.
Medicare+Choice: A Decline in Offerings and Enrollment (1997–2003)^{2, 3}
The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (BBA) made significant changes to how Medicare paid risk plans in the new Medicare+Choice (Medicare Part C) program. It scrapped the previous payment formula and largely reduced payment rates to plans. In response to reports of favorable selection, the BBA established new risk-adjustment measures based on health status and an annual enrollment period, with only one switch allowed outside that period. It is also from this period that Meidcare+ Choice (which will become Medicare Advantage) dual mandate is formalized: MA program has pursued two stated goals. The first is to expand Medicare beneficiaries' choices to include private plans with coordinated care and more comprehensive benefits than those provided through traditional Medicare. The second is to take advantage of efficiencies in managed care and save Medicare money. As you can see, there isn't a specific section that says MA needs to fatten our HC insurance partner's EPS wallet, but then you wouldn't know that was the case if you read some WSJ lately, namely: https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/medicare-keeps-getting-tougher-for-health-insurers-52f6ad26
A Resurgence in Plans and a Surge in Expenditures (2003–2010)^{2, 3}
In addition to establishing Medicare Part D, the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 (MMA) significantly altered how private plans (now renamed Medicare Advantage) were paid. The law limited enrollees to one switch per year during the open enrollment period and allowed plans to include the new drug benefit (MA–PD).
The MMA significantly raised payments to plans to counter the effects of the BBA. Everywhere in the country, Medicare offered rates to private plans that were at least as high as traditional Medicare spending per enrollee, resulting in a 10.9 percent increase in outlays to risk plans between 2003 and 2004. The big 4 would like to thank their lobbyists on doing a heck of a job. The MMA also established a bidding mechanism, under which each plan submitted a bid representing its estimated cost of providing basic Medicare benefits to enrollees for the coming year, including administrative overhead and profit. If the bid comes in lower than a county-level benchmark based on traditional Medicare spending per enrollee, the plan is paid most of the difference as a rebate or bonus. The big 4 would like to thank their lobbyists on doing a heck of a job The plan is then required to provide additional benefits that equaled the actuarial value of the rebate. Notice the nice wording on this. A coupon would do as an actuarial value of the rebate right?
With Parts A, B, and D available under one plan, as well as supplementary benefits subsidized by generous payments, enrollment in Medicare Advantage skyrocketed. In each year from 2006 to 2011, most new plan enrollees were beneficiaries who had switched from traditional Medicare, many of whom were relatively young. By 2010, enrollment reached 11.1 million, representing 24 percent of all beneficiaries.
A (Partial) Return to Original Goals (2010–2017)^{2, 3}
The Affordable Care Act (ACA), signed into law by President Obama in March 2010, included another major restructuring of the MA program and significant cuts in MA plan payments. Payment provisions in the ACA brought Medicare Advantage plan payments closer to traditional Medicare spending levels and reduced rates overall. Starting in 2012 the legislation reduces some plan payments while preserving broad access to plans across areas and rewarding plans that provide high-quality care. Many analysts predicted widespread plan withdrawal and dis-enrollment, as had occurred under the BBA. However, from 2009 to 2017, enrollment increased more than 80 percent, with 33 percent of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in private plans by 2017. By 2017, approximately 50 percent of plans had a rating above four stars, and these bonus-eligible plans comprised 67 percent of enrollment, up from 37 percent in 2013. As you can see, ACA was the start of the STAR ratings system.
Medicare Advantage and the gaming of the STARisk Adjustment/Quality Bonus Payment system

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/25/business/medicare-star-ratings-allow-nursing-homes-to-game-the-system.html
   
2. https://apl.utdallas.edu/2023/03/15/gaming-the-system-how-major-insurers-are-able-to-extract-big-profits-from-medicare-advantage/
   
3. https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2023-06/The%20Medicare%20Advantage%20Quality%20Bonus%20Program.pdf
   

I hope you read Rainy's discussion on Risk Adjustment and Quality Bonus Payment from the other subreddit? We won't be posting there anymore, so if you would like us to re-copy those posts back into this subreddit we could, so please comment if that is what you want. If you recall, the original reason why Rainy even wrote that post was because some degenerate started to ask me on if I can define the exact RA and QBP reimbursement rate for Clover within the New Jersey jurisdiction, and wanted me to infer this information from CMS data downloads. To which I replied nicely that I only deal with legitimate partners, not WSB, and I only use publicly available information. In any case, what the thread conversation led me to understand is that some of the big insurance companies actively game the RA and QBP depending on the patient's clinical condition, demographics, and geography. I think Upset Weekend got super upset that evening just for that. Please excuse his grumpiness, I don't think he is as jaded yet.
Now let us get into the meat of this:

1. The QBP has become a significant source of revenue for insurers participating in MA, totaling $10 billion in extra payments in 2022. Inflation in QBP costs has contributed to growing policy concerns that the QBP and the underlying MA star ratings are not achieving their goals of encouraging quality improvement among MA insurers and helping seniors make informed plan choices (MedPAC 2020)⁶.
2. Evidence also suggests that double bonuses available under the QBP in counties with low traditional Medicare costs result in inequitable MA spending and bonuses based on race or ethnicity. The QBP is also not aligned with the measures of quality that experts use in research to assess clinical quality in MA, including mortality rates for specific conditions, inpatient admissions and readmissions overall for specific conditions, or hospice use. Even a recent study by Optum, a subsidiary of United Health Group, did not use star ratings measures to assess quality in its MA contracts compared to care in traditional Medicare. Instead, it used alternative quality measures.⁶
3. Evidence shows that insurers combined contracts to boost star ratings before 2020, a practice that undermined the program’s purpose⁶.
4. Finally, the QBP also does not include measures that address the documented problems in MA, such as difficulty accessing high-quality postacute care, denials of prior authorization, and high rates of switching to traditional Medicare among seriously ill beneficiaries⁶. Or another way of saying it - Big 4 MA takes your money, screws you with prior authorizations, and the moment you are seriously ill, you have to switch back to traditional medicare. Your taxpayer money at work.
5. It is now well established that many MA organizations actively attempt to increase risk adjustment payments by “finding” diagnoses that would not be recorded for beneficiaries if they were in the traditional Medicare program⁶.
6. Research shows that beneficiaries do not use star ratings when making enrollment decisions Some research suggests that seniors do appear to respond to the lower premiums and cost sharing that highly-rated plans can offer because of star rating bonuses, but not to the star ratings themselves. This suggests that star ratings fail one of their two major goals—to provide actionable information to beneficiaries. Beneficiaries may not use star ratings to make decisions, partly because contract-level star ratings that cover multiple states or plans do not give beneficiaries much information about their experience in their local area. Similarly, combining preventive care, beneficiary experiences, and administrative effectiveness into a single rating does not help beneficiaries select plans based on important factors⁶. Combined in totality, STAR rating serves as a poor determinant of plan clinical effectiveness, value, and cost of the MA insurance plan (descriptive emphasis by Moocao).

If you have read through all this, congratulations! In the next parts we will delve into what I think is the reason for why CMS released its big April Fools day release and why all big Healthcare Insurances are quaking in their boots and why their stock took a nosedive, and what implications this may have for all Medical Advantage plans in the future. Hopefully you all had a fun read, because going through all this really makes me feel like Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade - the drying up dying guy who drank from the wrong cup.
Sincerely
Moocao
*** This is not financial advice, nor is there any financial advice within. Shout-out to the AMC/GME apes for forcing me to write this every dang time, especially when someone's lunch money can be involved ***
*** Please do not utilize this content without author authorization ***
**Edit: removed GWB prez 4 lyfe, the satire sauce was too thick and I didn't want the PC police to come and arrest me**

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Overview

• South Koreas (SK) most dominant e-commerce company, nicknamed Amazon of Korea, operating in 4th largest e-commerce market in the world
• CEO and founder Kim Bom is brilliant long term, customer-oriented capital allocator and have skin in the game (10% ownership)
• Rocket delivery – Delivery in maximum of 24h due to well developed and scaled infrastructure and logistics. No other company comes close to CPNG logistics and delivery times. 70% of Korean citizens live within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistic center.
• Besides E-commerce, CPNG is expanding in grocery delivery (Fresh), food delivery (Eats), Fintech and payments (Coupang Pay)
• WOW/Rocket subscription for fast delivery, promotional discounts and access to other CPNG offerings and services
• Trying to replicate the e-commerce system in Taiwan. CPNG exited Japan market in 2023 due to highly competitive environment
• CPNG success is tied to high density, urban population of South Korea (8th most densely populated 1m+ pop country), because their e-commerce model and strategy work best in this type of environment. At the moment main focus on future growth is from replicating the system in Taiwan, which is very densely populated country as well (6th most densely 1m+ pop in the world) and from Eats (In S. Korea) as well.
• In Q2 2023, Eats becomes unit economics positive.
• Kim Bom capital allocation strategy is very similar to the Amazons one. Deploying capital in smaller amounts to many possible future growth segments and monitoring their development. If the segment shows promising results, CPNG continues to fund and develop the segment with higher amounts of invested capital. If not, the segment is discarded.
• CPNG provides broad selection of products, low prices, and exceptional delivery and customer experience across owned inventory selection as well as products offered by third-party merchant
• Active customer count is 20M (SK population is 52M)
• Generates higher margins over time with optimization and focus on operational improvements, optimization and scaling of margin (mgmt target is 10%+ EBITDA – low teens. Last Q, Product Commerce EBITDA margin was 6,7%

History

Founded in 2010 by Bom Kim, the company expanded to become the largest online marketplace in South Korea. Coupang is often referred to as the "Amazon of South Korea". Kim registered Coupang as a limited liability company in the US, allowing to access US funding. In November 2018, Coupang received a US$2 billion investment from SoftBank. Other major investors in Coupang include BlackRock and Fidelity. The company was valued in the private market at $9 billion in the 2018 funding round
Druckenmillers Duquesne family office and Maverick Capital led by Lee Ainslie also invested in CPNG pre-IPO. As per the most recent 13-F filings, these holdings represent proportions of 12.75% and 30.62% within their portfolio, respectively.
SIDENOTE: High conviction play by Duquesne family office was the reason I showed interest in this company. Stanley Druckenmiller, known for his exceptional track record, experienced only five losing quarters out of 120 and achieved an average annual return of around 30% over three decades, which makes him one of the best investors by CAGR performance in the history (1M into 20B in 30 years). His investment strategy involves top-down approach, anticipating macro-economic trends combined with fundamentals analysis. Druckenmiller focuses on concentrated investments rather than diversification, emphasizing the importance of closely monitoring chosen assets. His investments strategy relies on asymmetrical risk : reward ratio, that involves seeking opportunities where the potential for gains is significantly greater than the potential for losses. The goal is to create a situation where the risk taken is disproportionately smaller than the potential reward. I will elaborate why I think CPNG is asymmetrical risk : reward situation in the thesis part of this report, where even my bear case still provides little upside to the stock.
Coupang had its IPO on NYSE on 11 March 2021. The company’s stock began trading at $63.50 a piece and finishing the day at $49.25. The company's stock, at the time of writing this report, is trading at $14.53, with total market capitalization of $25.98 billion. The stock has tanked nearly 70%, and for the last six Qs have been trading sideways in mid-teens territory, although the financials have been improving each quarter. This price drop was caused by overvalued IPO combined with weak Asian (mainly Chinese) stock market sentiment and increased competition from Chinese companies.
Softbank's Vision Fund (SFV), one of the early pre-IPO investors, sold some of their shares for a significant profit in the Qs following the IPO. SFV had initially owned 568 million shares at estimated average price of $4.80 per share, and have been unloading its winners to stay solvent.

• 57M shares for $1.6 billion at $29.69 on September 2021
• 50M shares for $1 billion at $20.87 on March 2022
• 35M shares for $647 million at $18.50 on December 2022
• 30M shares for $460 million at $15.39 on December 2023

They still have 396 million shares left out of 568M. This overhang selling has been putting downward pressure on the stock and came in the time of the Softbank's money-losing startup meltdown that litter its portfolio, which has been hit by a collapse in China tech valuations. SVF posted its first quarterly profit after four Qs of heavy losses, signaling the end of the solvency problems.
On 8 July 2021, the company launched e-commerce expansion in Taiwan. More on that later.
On 18 December 2023, Coupang announced it would be acquiring online luxury retailer Farfetch in a deal that would give Farfetch access to $500 million worth of capital, opening the door to online luxury market.

Services provided by Coupang

I will briefly describe each of the two segments in which Coupang discloses financial data - Product Commerce and Developing Offerings.
1. Product Commerce primarily includes South Koreas core retail (1P owned inventory), marketplace offerings (3P merchants) and Rocket Fresh, CPNGs fresh grocery offering. This segment is the most profitable one, bringing in the cash flow needed to finance Coupang expansion in Taiwan and other segments. No other company exists at the moment in the SKs e-commerce market which would come close to Coupang's delivery times while providing such a wide variety of products for a reasonable price.
Coupang attracts small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which leverage CPNGs nationwide fulfillment and logistics infrastructure to connect and market their products to millions of customers. Over 70% of CPNGs merchants are SMEs, making this a win-win situation for both parties. SMEs wants to be listed on Coupang since they can market their products to more customers, and vice versa. Coupang wants to have wide selection of products to drive more traffic to their platform and takes commissions for each 3P transaction. In addition, CPNGs allow SMEs to reach new market, half the size of SK, Taiwan. According to the information from the latest Q call, the 3P business is growing 2x faster than 1P, but 1P business provides higher margins. Many merchants choose 1P, selling directly to Coupang which rebrands their products under CPNGs owned brands and sells it as owned inventory to customers.
Bom Kim's strategy have been to differentiate from the competition with heavy customer-oriented approach by providing services like:
Rocket WOW, a paid subscription service, similar to Amazon Prime, costs users KRW 4,999 ($3.74) per month. The features of Rocket Wow are:

• Free delivery for entire Rocket Delivery tagged products
• Free return within 30 days
• Discounts on Rocket Wow tagged products
• Free one-day delivery
• Receiving Rocket Fresh products in the morning
• Use of Coupang Play
• Discounts on Coupang Eats platform

WOW membership is a tool to amplify all of the benefits of Coupang's ecosystem. When WOW members increase their engagement around one benefit, it usually increases their engagement across all of Coupang’s offerings.
Rocket Delivery, which is known for its fast and efficient delivery system. Rocket Delivery is a signature service of Coupang, whereby items ordered before midnight will be delivered overnight by Coupang's delivery personnel. Rocket Delivery service is free for the Coupang Rocket (WOW) membership subscribers, for whom delivery is free for all Rocket Delivery tagged products. Rocket Delivery is offered to non-subscribers as well if they purchase more than KRW4,990. Coupang claims that 99.6% of its orders are delivered within 24 hours, and 70% of Korean citizens live within 10 minutes of a Coupang logistic center.
According to a distribution industry report, Coupang has invested US$4.7 billion to build a well-developed, highly automated and scaled infrastructure and logistics which would support the Rocket delivery program, and this stage is mainly over. Future CapEx mainly focused on other growing segments in which CPNG tries to participate, e.g Taiwan e-commerce and Coupang Eats in SK.
Rocket Fresh, a fresh-food delivery service. Similar to Rocket Delivery, Rocket Fresh delivers fresh foods overnight. Users can receive the food by 7am if they order before midnight.
2. Developing Offerings primarily includes more nascent offerings and services, including Coupang Eats, restaurant ordering and delivery service in Korea, Coupang Play and Pay, online content streaming service in Korea, fintech, retail operations in Taiwan, as well as advertising products associated with these offerings. Revenues from Developing Offerings are primarily generated from Eats in Korea and retail operations in Taiwan.
This segment achieved 23% year over year revenue growth (Q3 2022 to Q3 2023). According to MGMT, revenue growth contributors were mainly Eats and Taiwan e-commerce.
Coupang Eats. similar to Uber Eats, is a food delivery service which is at the moment unit economics positive. Users of Coupang can place restaurant orders for delivery by Coupang, which allows for real-time tracking. The biggest players by active users in SKs food delivery as of May 2023 were:

1. Baedal Minjok (Baemin) – 19.54 million
2. Yogiyo – 6.67 million
3. Coupang Eats - 3.23 million
4. Ddangyo – 0.72 million

Based on the data above, the competition is quite strong and the market share is mainly distributed between Beamin, Yogiyo and Coupang Eats. The user food delivery penetration rate in SK is expected to be around 75%, due to fast paced lifestyle and tech-oriented population combined with social norm of working long hours. There is not much room to grow in terms of increasing market share. Coupang Eats have been benefiting from their WOW subscription ecosystem, which brings traffic to the other CPNGs platforms through the promotional actions, discounts and other benefits, and vice versa. In early Q2, CPNG launched Eats WOW membership, which increased the participation of WOW members by 90%, and the transaction volume has more than double in ¾ of the regions. And still, only 20% of total WOW members participate in Eats. Coupang food delivery market share is at the time of writing this report is only around 8.5%.
Coupang Pay is a digital payments service that enables customers to make easy payments. In mid 2020, the company spun off Coupang Pay as a separate fintech subsidiary. Coupang platform is used by customers buying products on Coupang.com, marketplace vendors, and restaurants that offer their services via Coupang Eats.
Coupang Play is a subscription-based video streaming service launched in December 2020. In December 2023, MAUs total around 6.65 million, the highest since the launch. Coupang allows its WOW members to access Coupang Play for just 4,990 won ($3.78) a month as part of its WOW membership bundle.
Taiwan e-commerce is the most promising segment from Developing offerings in terms of future growth. Taiwan shares lot of similarities with SKs, like very high population density, similar social culture, well-developed telecommunications infrastructure and very high internet penetration. Four out of five people in Taiwan use e-commerce regularly. Coupang is trying to replicate their SKs logistics and infrastructure system in Taiwan, with focus on the customer experience, and fast, reliable deliveries while maintaining broad selection of goods. On top of that, CPNGs 3P have opened doors for many SKs SMEs to enter the Taiwan e-commerce market. which is half the size of SKs (23.5 million vs 51.7 million population)

Key competitive advantage – Synergies and scaling the “flywheel”

Coupang's end-to-end logistics infrastructure, including the ability to control the last-mile delivery logistics, paired with fastest delivery times, cheap prices, wide selection of products, food and groceries, makes Coupang stand out among the competition. The barrier to entry is high thanks to the need of heavy CapEx spending in the initial expansion phase to build well developed, automated and scaled infrastructure and logistics.
Their services and segments are tied together in one big ecosystem, the flywheel as mgmt likes to call it, where each segment is benefiting from the other segments and services and amplifying the whole ecosystem.
Coupang e-commerce platform offers consumers reduced prices, 24-hour delivery and wide selection of goods because of the operational efficiencies brought about by distinctive investments and expanding economy of scale. Online shoppers have historically had to decide between fast delivery, affordable costs, and a large assortment, but Coupang's e-commerce model avoids these compromises.
Another competitive advantage is heavy customer and long-term oriented approach, thanks to the vision of the CEO and founder, Bom Kim and his management team.
Coupang, Inc. [2023 10-K, page 6]
“We are committed to delivering a “wow” experience to all of our customers every day. We offer our customers a wide selection of general merchandise ranging from consumer electronics to personal care. We reimagined the e-commerce experience with our Rocket Delivery service:
• Dawn and Same-Day Delivery. Orders are delivered within hours via Dawn Delivery (ordered as late as midnight, arrive before 7am) or Same-Day Delivery (ordered in the morning, arrive same-day).
• Next-Day Delivery. Customers are eligible for free, one-day delivery nationwide 365 days a year.
• Frictionless Returns. Our customers simply tap a button on the app and leave the item outside their door for pickup. Refunds are initiated the moment the item is picked up at the door.
In addition to Rocket Delivery available to all our customers, our Rocket WOW membership program allows members to enjoy unlimited free shipping with no minimum spend, free unlimited returns for 30 days, delivery of groceries via Rocket Fresh, and content streaming on Coupang Play. We’ve also extended our network and systems to other offerings that further improve our customers’ lives such as our restaurant ordering and delivery services from Coupang Eats. We believe the success of these offerings demonstrates the power of our network to extend offerings to our loyal customers.”
Coupang shows signs of scalable unit economics with their e-commerce and Eats segments, which suggest that Coupang can increase revenues faster than the costs as they grow their customer base, indicating a strong competitive advantage. As an example of this efficient scaling is the gross profit, EBITDA and FCF margins expansion. The higher the count of MAU Coupang accumulates, the better margins they produce.
The cohort data published in Q4 2023 dating back to 2018 looks very promising, when taking into account that four million Coupang active users are in the later cohorts. On top of that, new cohort spend is consistently starting at higher values than previous years, signaling revenue growth with a quite long runaway.

Thesis

The total South Korea commerce market is expected to reach $530 billion by the end of 2024, meaning Coupang has only under 5% of total market share (according to Bom Kim), so the room to grow is there. Even the gain of few percentages of market share would have huge impact on the financials. Because of the cohort data mentioned above, I think that market share gain is possible due to increased spend per customer, and Coupang.com becaming the go-to website for many of the regular purchases.
Gaurav Anand, CFO [Q3 2023 Earning Call, page 4]
“We are still early in our margin expansion journey and believe that are significant opportunities in front of us to drive higher margin levels through supply chain optimization, operational improvements, scaling of newer offerings like Ads, and merchant services and automation.”
“We are confident in our ability to achieve our entitlement adjusted EBITDA margins of over 10%.”
Product Commerce EBITDA margins expanding:

• Q3 2022- 4.8%
• Q4 2022- 5.1%
• Q1 2023- 5.1%
• Q2 2023- 7.2%
• Q3 2023- 6.7%

The Product Commerce segment EBITDA margins, in accordance with mgmt statements, shows margin expansion going hand in hand with the increase of SKs e-commerce business maturity. It is worth to note that FCF margin of matured business is expected to be similar to EBITDA margin. From 2018 until Q3 2023, Coupang's revenue CAGR have been 32.35%. Although the revenue growth has slowed down in the most recent Qs, the company has maintained revenue growth in mid-teens territory.
My base case, slightly more on the aggressive side, assumes Coupang can grow revenues at CAGR of around 15% until 2030, with EBITDA margin reaching 10%+. With these assumptions, Coupang would generate $55 billion in revenue by 2030, and $5.5 billion in EBITDA. With valuation multiple of 15, this would give the company market cap of $81.5 billion, giving the stock total gain of 245%, CAGR of nearly 20%.
The bear case assumes revenue growth of 7%, and EBITDA margin of 8%. By 2030, Coupang would generate $2.6 billion EBITDA, and market cap of $39.35 billion with a multiple of 15. That means upside of 67% and CAGR of 7.6%.
I will share my bull case as well, with very aggressive assumptions. Coupang will be able to grow revenue at 20% CAGR, EBITDA margin will reach 11% by 2030. Coupang will be the dominant player in a SKs e-commerce, food delivery, and as well in Taiwan e-commerce. The rocket subscription will be a huge success, and will intergrade multiple segments, offerings and services under one roof, and thus taking a huge market share.
With these aggressive assumptions, Coupang would reach market cap of $160.1 billion by 2030 with a valuation multiple of 20, and EBITDA of $8.05 billion. The total stock gain would be 578%, with CAGR of 31.5%.

Risks

• Revenue growth may disappoint
• Profitability may not be as high as anticipated
• Potentially significant down pressure from SVF overhang (short-term risk)
• Increased competition!

Chinese companies like AliExpress (BABA), Temu (PDD) and Shein are intensifying their efforts to gain market share in SKs e-commerce market and being quite successful. AliExpress doubled their MAU in just a year, and Temus MAU have surged nearly 7x in just three months. This is due to their aggressive strategy, like giving people coupons up to 230 dollars for free just by signing up, or 90% off on a customer first purchase etc. with aim of growing customer base. The Chinese e-commerce platforms have risen mainly due to customers being more price aware. Historically in SK, China-made products were viewed as ultra cheap with reputation of inferior quality. It is important to note that AliExpress have entered the SKs market in 2018, but they saw significant traction after the pandemic, with the shift of consumers to money conscious sentiment, which have been benefiting Chinese platforms.
On top of that, AliExpress has offered Korean companies zero commissions, under which it will not charge a sales fee through the end of March this year, in a move to attract Korean SMEs to their 3P platform. Another reason beside providing wider selection of products is Alibaba's attempt to lose its image of a low-quality Chinese platform by providing better quality Korean products.
AliExpress is currently the fastest shipping international platform, with delivery times just within three to six days, and Temu with delivery time of six to twenty days. Alibaba have invested in near border warehouses to support quicker delivery times.
Monthly visitor's statistics for October 2023:

• Coupang – 28.46 million
• 11st (2nd biggest SKs e-commerce) - 8.16 million
• AliExpress – 6.13 million
• G-market – 5.82 million
• Temu – 2.66 million

Coupang is still the clear number one, but the increasing competition have been reflected on its financial results in a form of slower revenue growth and margin stagnation.
Despite the quick expansion of Chinese companies, industrial reports on Temu and AliExpress suggest that the Chinese e-commerce platforms are lagging behind Coupang and other regional e-commerce firms in SK due to delivery delays and worries over product quality. Another problem Korean consumers have to face is far too many copycat fake products on Chinese e-commerce sites. Overall, Chinese platforms face both logistics, infrastructure and cultural barriers in their overseas expansion. However, they are also achieving success due to prevailing consumer sentiment, which favors lower-quality, more affordable goods in the current macroeconomic environment.