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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls & is on track to decline across April

2024.04.30 16:31 City_Index S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls & is on track to decline across April

Stocks are set to open lower and are set to fall across April, marking the first monthly decline since October. The selloff in stocks comes as the market frets over sticky inflation and the prospect of higher rates for longer. Today, the Fed kicks off its 2-day FOMC meeting and no change in rates is expected at the announcement tomorrow. Amazon will report after the close.
Click the following link to get a better insight from one of our senior analysts Fiona Cincotta:
https://www.cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/sp-500-forecast-spx-falls-declines-across-april-us-open-2024-4-30/?cid=10023363
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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2024.04.26 02:06 City_Index DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecast: US Indices Vulnerable Through Earnings Season

DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecast: US Indices Vulnerable Through Earnings Season
The DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all look vulnerable to more downside as long as this week’s highs hold.
By : Matt Weller CFA, CMT, Head of Market Research

DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Key Points

  • META’s stock price is falling -13% on weak Q2 revenue forecasts, dragging down indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
  • Earnings season continues with Alphabet/Google and Microsoft after the bell today, as well as Amazon and Apple next week.
  • The DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all look vulnerable to more downside as long as this week’s highs hold.

META / Facebook Earnings Drag Indices Lower

After the close yesterday, Meta Platforms (META), the parent of Facebook and Instagram, reported its first quarter earnings, highlighted by profits of $4.71 per share and total revenue of $36.46 billion, which is a 27% increase from last year. The company also more than doubled its net income to $12.37 billion.
Despite these strong results, META’s stock price is falling -13% as we go to press, ostensibly because the revenue forecast for the next quarter was lower than what analysts expected, between $36.5 billion and $39 billion, which didn't meet the hoped-for $38.3 billion.
The drop in stock price is also being driven by Meta's plan to spend more on areas that don't yet make money, such as mixed reality and AI technologies, which CEO Mark Zuckerberg discussed during the earnings call. Additionally, Meta increased its expected spending on tech infrastructure, especially for AI, to between $35 billion and $40 billion for the year.
As one of the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks that have driven much of the market’s gains over the past year+, the disappointing Q2 guidance from META has index traders worried that heavy investments in AI infrastructure may hurt profits for other “Big Tech” stocks. Looking ahead, traders will be monitoring the results from Alphabet/Google and Microsoft after the bell today, as well as Amazon and Apple next week.
Click the website link below to get our exclusive Guide to index trading in 2024.
https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/market-outlooks-2024/q2-indices-outlook/
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https://preview.redd.it/7iq4dmz5spwc1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=478b38ed822905fc5120f021a5259af10e312e04

Dow Jones Technical Analysis – DJIA Daily Chart

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https://preview.redd.it/xdxp078aspwc1.png?width=1634&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a920e7078314a218b58178f8edb6b249a926b94
Source: TradingView, StoneX
Despite not holding META directly at all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is seeing the worst performance of the day among the major US indices. From a technical perspective, the index has confirmed clear resistance at 38,500, where previous support from February and March meet the declining 50-day EMA. As long as the index remains below that level, bears will remain in control, with potential for a pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November-April rally at 37,060.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – SPX Daily Chart

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https://preview.redd.it/w88bisccspwc1.png?width=1634&format=png&auto=webp&s=82759ddcf9e62e950c8cdef480f2c4b8600b410d
Source: TradingView, StoneX
The technical picture is similar for the S&P 500, with the index rising as high as 5,275 earlier this month before rolling over to test 5,000 as we go to press. Like the DJIA, the S&P 500 saw this week’s bounce stall at the 50-day EMA near 5,075, and with that level capping prices, a deeper retracement toward 4,830 may be in the cards next.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis – NDX Daily Chart

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https://preview.redd.it/8ljaytnpspwc1.png?width=1634&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ab3ae18a4bab229155cea6d6730710400b2a058
Last (and maybe least), the Nasdaq 100 saw a comparatively weak bounce to start this week, failing to reach even the bottom of its March consolidation range at 17,800 before yesterday’s reversal. Looking ahead, the lackluster bounces hints at relatively weak buying support on dips and opens the door for a retracement back toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the whole 2023-2024 rally near 16,650 next.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/news-and-analysis/djia-sp-500-nasdaq-100-forecast-us-indices-vulnerable-through-earnings-season/
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
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2024.04.25 03:24 OnlineShadow Fellow Daoists, I sucessfully cheated the heavens.

Fellow Daoists, I sucessfully cheated the heavens.
​
https://www.kongregate.com/games/AdamT/xianxia-idle
submitted by OnlineShadow to MartialMemes [link] [comments]

2024.04.24 16:21 City_Index S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises with earnings in focus, Tesla jumps

Stocks are pointing to a modestly higher start as earnings continue to roll in. However, gains could be limited after stronger-than-expected US durable goods orders revived concerns over the Fed keeping rates high for longer. Tesla is set to open 12% higher despite missing both earnings and revenue estimates. The market was more impressed by the news of an acceleration in the production of affordable EV models. Meta will report after the close.
Click the following link to get a better insight from one of our senior analysts Fiona Cincotta:
https://www.cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/sp-500-forecast-spx-rises-with-earnings-in-focus-tesla-jumps-us-open-2024-4-24/?cid=10023363
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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2024.01.17 17:15 City_Index S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls after retail sales cast doubts over early Fed rate cuts

US stocks are pointed to a weaker start after stronger-than-expected retail sales, and Fed speakers cast doubts over early Fed rate cuts. Retail sales rose by more than forecast, highlighting the resilience of the consumer despite interest rates at a 22-year high. Meanwhile, oil prices are tumbling after weaker-than-expected growth in China raises concerns over the oil demand outlook.
US futures
Dow futures -0.37% at 37206
S&P futures -0.43% at 4780
Nasdaq futures -0.55% at 16740
In Europe
FTSE -1.66% at 7424
Dax +0.01% at 16395
Click the following link to get a better insight from one of our senior analysts Fiona Cincotta:
https://www.cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/sp-500-forecast-spx-falls-after-retail-sales-cast-doubts-over-early-rate-cuts-fed-us-open-2024-1-17/?cid=10023363
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From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
​
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
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2024.01.12 15:41 City_Index S&P 500 Forecast: SPX mulls over disappointing bank earnings, PPI data

US stocks are pointing to a mixed start as the market weighs up a weak start to Q4 earnings season and cooler-than-expected PPI inflation data. The likes of Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo point to a lower start after earnings, while JP Morgan bucks the trend and is set to rise after a record full-year profit. US PPI rose by less than expected after yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI print.
US futures
Dow futures -0.13% at 37623
S&P futures +0.01% at 4780
Nasdaq futures +0.01% at 16820
In Europe
FTSE +0.8% at 7638
Dax +0.01% at 16698
Click the following link to get a better insight from one of our senior analysts Fiona Cincotta:
https://www.cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/sp-500-forecast-spx-mulls-over-disappointing-bank-earnings-ppi-data-us-open-2024-1-12/?cid=10023363
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
​
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2024.01.03 01:53 City_Index S&P 500 Analysis: What Happens After 9-Week SPX Winning Streaks?

S&P 500 Analysis: What Happens After 9-Week SPX Winning Streaks?
Past 9-week winning streaks have historically led to above-average returns over the next 1 and 3 months, though the track record is about average over the next year.
By : Matt Weller CFA, CMT, Head of Market Research

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 ended 2023 on a 9-week winning streak, only its 3rd such streak in the past half century.
  • Past 9-week winning streaks have historically led to above-average returns over the next 1 and 3 months, though the track record is about average over the next year.
  • The near-term outlook points to a possible pullback in SPX toward 4700 or 4640 before the recent uptrend resumes.

Analyzing the S&P 500’s 9-Week Winning Streak

If you thought Taylor Swift ended 2023 on a high note, you should check out the S&P 500: The broad US stock index finished the year on a 9-week winning streak!
To put it bluntly, 9-week winning streaks are historically rare, and any time we see a rare market development, it can be beneficial to look at how the market has performed after past occurrences.
So how rare are 9-week winning streaks in the S&P 500 historically? Going back over the last 100 years, there have been just 13 prior 9-week winning streaks or an average of just one every 6.9 years. This represents a mere 0.28% of the 5,053 weeks in the sample. As rare as they’ve been historically, they’ve been even more uncommon in recent history; the last 9-week winning streak in the S&P 500 was in 2004, and there have been only three previous streaks in more than a half century!
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Source: Tradingview, StoneX
Any time stocks rise every single week for two straight months, you would expect some bullish complacency to set in, and that is absolutely a risk as we start a new year. The VIX, Wall Street’s “fear index” of implied volatility, ended the year with a 12-handle, and the track record of past 9-week S&P 500 winning streaks suggest we may see the bullish run come to an end soon. As the chart below shows, 8 of the previous 13 9-week winning streaks didn’t make it to 10 weeks, and all of the streaks ended within the next month:
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Source: TradingView, StoneX
Of course, traders are most interested in what the recent price action may mean for future moves. On that front, the short-term outlook may be a bit brighter than usual, if the historical record holds. Following previous 9-week winning streaks, the price-only return of the S&P 500 has been generally strong over the next 1 and 3 months, though returns over the next year have been mostly average:
  • Avg. 4-week return = +1.5% (vs. 0.6% in all 4-weel periods)
  • Avg. 13-week return = +4.2% (vs. 2.1% in all 13-week periods)
  • Avg. 52-week return = +8.0% (vs. 8.5% in all 52-week periods)
Time will tell if the historical averages play out this time – after all, every market environment is different and other factors beyond a past winning streak will inevitably impact the S&P 500 returns – but the SPX’s strong run to end 2023 could well be a bullish sign for the first quarter of 2024.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – SPX Daily Chart

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Source: TradingView, StoneX
From a more traditional technical analysis perspective, there’s certainly a case for a near-term pullback in the S&P 500. As the chart above shows, the index formed a bearish divergence with its 14-day RSI to finish 2023; this combination of a higher high in price and lower high in the momentum oscillator suggests that buying pressure was fading over the holidays and increases the odds of a near-term top forming.
To the downside, the first level of support to watch will be the December 20 low near 4700, with a break below that area opening the door for a deeper pullback toward previous-resistance-turned-support at 4640 or 4600. If bulls are able to get back into gear, the key resistance level to watch will be the all-time high around 4815.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/news-and-analysis/sp-500-analysis-what-happens-after-9-week-spx-winning-streaks/
​
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
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2023.12.20 01:28 City_Index USD/JPY taps 145, ASX 200 surges with seasonality fully behind it. Dec 20th 2023

USD/JPY taps 145, ASX 200 surges with seasonality fully behind it. Dec 20th 2023
USD/JPY rallied nearly 2% after the BOJ's decision to keep policy unchanged, and there could be further upside to come. We also look at daily seasonality pattern for the ASX 200 in December, which suggests a record high could be close.
By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
​

Market Summary:

  • SPX 500 Emini futures touched a record high on Tuesday Wall Street tracked the path of Santa’s rally, which also saw the Dow Jones rise for a ninth consecutive day to its own new record high. The Nasdaq 100 cash index also hit a fresh new high.
  • AUD/USD reached a 5-week high as it tracked risk assets and enjoyed the weaker US dollar, despite Fed member Bostic pushing back on an early rate cut
  • WTI crude oil extended its countertrend bounce and rose for a fifth day in line with my bullish bias outlined at the beginning of the week. Technically it appeared oversold, and geopolitical tensions around the Red Sea has brought with it concerns over supply.
  • USD/JPY rose to 145 by Wednesday’s high following the BOJ’s decision to do absolutely nothing. This is another market flagged as oversold ahead of the meeting. And while economists had fully backed no action, there was some excitement in market pricing that the BOJ might hike their interest rate looking at how well USD/JPY bounced on Wednesday.
  • USD/CAD fell to a 4-month low as inflation data for Canada was hotter than expected, with annual trimmed mean, median and headline CPI all failing to drop in line with the consensus estimates. Whilst this does not necessarily mean a BOC hike is imminent, it serves as a reminder as to why Governor Macklem’s said last week that the central bank “may be done, may not be done” in regards to further tightening.
  • The OIS curve continues to point towards 5% being the peak rate and cuts to begin next year. Let’s see if USD/CAD can build a base around 1.33, as this move lower could be getting ‘long in the tooth’.
​
https://preview.redd.it/lg1gaf3egc7c1.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=a20420580d3a77ddd7c1b32e18334937ee32cdb1

Events in focus (AEDT):

  • 10:30 – Australian leading index (Westpac-Melbourne Institute)
  • 10:50 – Japanese trade balance
  • 11:00 – New Zealand’s budget balance, economic forecasts
  • 18:00 – UK inflation, producer prices
  • 01:00 – SNB quarterly bulletin

ASX 200 seasonality patterns in December

We see a similar pattern on the ASX 200 as we see elsewhere this time of the year; strong gains. Taking data from April 2000, the ASX 200 has delivered a bullish monthly close 73% of the time. But if we drill down to daily returns for December, December 24th stands out for its 87.5% win rate alongside one of the strongest daily performances (average and median). In fact, the win rate is above 50% between December 17th to December 30th, the 27th also delivering notably strong returns on average and median alongside a punchy 80% win rate.
https://preview.redd.it/hinb2yufgc7c1.png?width=1126&format=png&auto=webp&s=43043f1bf24e54e8949a129068e1e52d42dea501
The ASX 200 Is on track for a fourth consecutive bullish week with bullish momentum clearly on its side. The ASX now trades less than 2% from its record high, and with seasonality on its side little in the way of topping clues, it could be heading straight for that record high and for the 7700 handle. Pullbacks towards yesterday’s low could appeal to bulls, with 7500 also making a likely support level. 7600 is the next upside target, ahead of 7646 and 7700.
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https://preview.redd.it/0f9ajfchgc7c1.png?width=1431&format=png&auto=webp&s=adc868455dd1819c2871d3d15a80efa05fc08326

USD/JPY 4-hour chart:

USD/JPY has played quite nicely with my analysis this week, rising towards 145 following the BOJ’s ‘surprise’ decision of not changing rates (for a seventh year running…). The next big event for this pair is the US PCE inflation report on Thursday (early hours Friday for Sydney). Given the Fed are now pushing back against an early cut next year, then I suspect downside potential for USD/JPY may be limited and it is vulnerable to another leg higher. Take note that the 1-week implied volatility level has narrowed to indicate market expectations of lower volatility for the pair.
With RSI 14 above 50 and trending higher and RSI back below 50 (but not oversold), I’m now looking for prices to retraces towards 143 / 143.16. If it gets there during low volatility trade, the bias is bullish while prices remain above the 142.26 lows and for another crack at 145.
​
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https://preview.redd.it/e6f3abtigc7c1.png?width=1431&format=png&auto=webp&s=d320de0846ee56c87fb968c3a84214724851c400
View the full economic calendar
-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/news-and-analysis/usd-jpy-taps-145-asx-200-surges-with-seasonality-fully-behind-it-asian-open-2023-12-20/
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
​
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2023.12.14 17:52 City_Index S&P 500 Forecast :SPX extends rally above 4700 as Fed's dovish pivot arrives

US stocks point to a strong start, extending impressive gains from yesterday, which saw the Dow hit an all-time high. The Fed left interest rates on hold, as expected, but projected three rate cuts in 2024, up from two forecast in September. The dovish pivot from the Fed has seen yields drop and the USD fall while stocks surge. The market is now pricing in up to 6 rate cuts next year.
Click the following link to get a better insight from one of our senior analysts Fiona Cincotta:
https://www.cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/s-p-500-forecast-spx-extends-fed-rally-as-fed-dovish-pivot-arrives-us-open-2023-12-14/?cid=10023363
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
​
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2023.12.13 13:21 PuzzleheadedSkill861 SUGGEST A GREAT ANIME TO BINGE WATCH

here’s some of my favorite anime that i’m currently watching, for reference: 1. One piece 2. JJK 3. Overlord 4. Eminence in shadow 5. Dr. Stone 6. Spx x family 7. Shield hero
Also if an OP MC anime, would really appreciate it! Thanks!
submitted by PuzzleheadedSkill861 to anime [link] [comments]

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Investing in Penny Stocks feels like...
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BULLISH: Seastar Medical Holding Corp ($ICU) Has Serious Potential
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Daily Plays October 27, 2023
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Sheldon Stone - Liquidity, Covenants, and Capital Availability
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Zurn Elkay (ZWS) - deep dive into pure play clean water company
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Roche to Acquire Inflammatory Bowel Disease Drug Rights for $7.1 Billion
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algotrading

What is the difference between RegT Buying power and Day trading buying power?
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Forex

Looking back through my old journal, punished myself for making stupid trades.
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Passed first challenge after trading a few months
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How to trade profitably?
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Stock Market Recap for Thursday. October 26, 2023
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Daily Discussion Thread - October 27th, 2023
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Deutsche Bank Engages in Stablecoin Swap on Ethereum Blockchain - The Crypto Time
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I built a crypto game in my evenings as a hobby!!
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Yuga Labs Awarded $1.5 Million In Light of Bored Ape Yacht Club Trademark Infringement
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submitted by _call-me-al_ to StockMarketTLDR [link] [comments]

2023.10.21 06:45 Theflo007 First 1 of 1!

First 1 of 1! submitted by Theflo007 to hockeycards [link] [comments]

2023.09.22 20:14 pintord Smart guy

Smart guy submitted by pintord to SilverDegenClub [link] [comments]

2023.08.09 17:00 _call-me-al_ [Wed, Aug 09 2023] TL;DR — This is the top investing content you missed in the last 24 hours on Reddit

stocks

Federal Reserve has boosted latest GDP projection for 3Q to a booming 4.1%!
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For those with great portfolio returns, or are beating the market, how many of your stock picks went bust?
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PayPal is trying to drag its 435 million users into the $120 billion stablecoin market.
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What company is this article talking about?
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BABA Calls?
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Current State of Investing
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investing

Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate
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Is the money you're investing all "play money" or do you also consider it your savings?
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Gorilla tech news dropped
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Anyone been looking into Northern Superior?
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info on Aduro Hydro
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wallstreetbets

Everyone Wants to Work at UPS After Union Scores $170,000 Driver Pay
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$172k to YOLO. Sign me up
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How timing the market feels like so far.
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market_sentiment

Why International Diversification is important!
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options

SPY vs. SPX returns are vastly different
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Lies of Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
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Daily Discussion Thread - August 9th, 2023
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CryptoMarkets

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submitted by _call-me-al_ to StockMarketTLDR [link] [comments]

2023.07.14 08:59 Bluewolf1983 [YOLO Update] (No Longer) Going All In On Steel (+🏴‍☠️) Update #53. All Things $ATVI.

[YOLO Update] (No Longer) Going All In On Steel (+🏴‍☠️) Update #53. All Things $ATVI.

General Update

I had planned to write this update on the weekend with this being a busy week for me but I decided to try to find time tonight to write this update instead. Things have moved quickly since my last update five days ago of entering into $ATVI buyout price arbitrage. I'll recap things here which will include my current positioning and the latest on the $MSFT acquisition of $ATVI. (For those that reading this without context, $MSFT is buying $ATVI for $95 in cash. The FTC wants to stop the deal and sued in court to attempt to attain a preliminary injunction to stop the deal from closing. After five days in court, a decision on whether to prevent the deal from closing was to be due soon).
For the usual disclaimer up front, the following is not financial advice and I could be wrong about anything in this post. This is just my thought process for how I am playing my personal investment portfolio. For yet a second disclaimer since this is mostly about the Microsoft acquisition of Activision Blizzard, I've mentioned in the past that I do work at Microsoft but have no inside knowledge of things. (IE. I'm nowhere close to the deal and have no access to anything related to it). This is a disclosure that I still could be unconsciously biased in my views here though. I might also be wrong about the following as it is my personal views based on what I've read from online sources.

Monday, July 10th: Exiting $ATVI

From my last update, one of my two online sources of FOSS Patents had argued a ruling on a preliminary injunction had to come out before market open on Tuesday due to the temporary restraining order remaining in effect for five days after that ruling. This was so that it would expire before the known July 10th deadline of the deal (sample tweet by him). My play was focused on that timing - which he then altered this very morning. He began to argue that the Temporary Restraining Order had a maximum time limit and thus the requirements of the five days after the ruling didn't matter. I commented on it here that included me exiting my positions with the relevant recording by him here. While I had figured him to be a tad biased, I had assumed his knowledge of the process was accurate, and this change of "it must be by X" to "it doesn't matter when the ruling comes out as the Temporary Restraining Order will just expire by itself" changed my confidence in the play.
Why? I was trying to time things and confusion over the time schedule of events right near the previous claimed deadline made my play much more risky. I had the opportunity to exit my positions at slightly above break even and thus I took the escape hatch. If I decided I still wanted to play it later, I further figured a better entry could easily present itself if the ruling dragged out as we got closer to the end of the week.
To be clear here, I do appreciate FOSS Patent's content. He has been great at covering this developments and I follow his twitter like a hawk. Playing this buyout arbitrage wouldn't be possible without him - but I just think he is a bit overly confident in some of his calls.

Tuesday, July 11th: The Ruling Drops And Initial Positioning

At around 8:00 AM PDT, the ruling finally came out with the FTC losing the case. I was shocked this occurred during market hours but it gave me an opportunity to enter as I had been following things. As commented on here, I bought the following for my taxable Fidelity account:
  • 9,300 with a $86.13 cost basis.
  • Sold 93 January 2024 95c for $2.00 each as IV didn't crush on them immediately.
Shortly after that ruling, $MSFT put out a joint statement with the UK CMA that they were dropping their appeal to renegotiate with the agency. Their appeal was set to be heard in July with a ruling promised by October. This statement indicated they had come to some agreement to resolve things quicker than that with pointed to them closing the deal. Greed took ahold of me and I dipped into margin to add the following with me seeing nothing left to stop the deal:
  • 217 January 2024 80c for $13.17 each.
  • Sold 217 January 2024 95c for $0.47 each.
Those January 2024 spreads were a mistake. I knew the FTC would appeal the ruling and should have predicted the market panic over that. I failed to wait for a "good entry" to expand my position as I played my own expectation of what any appeal would accomplish over taking time to predict how the market would react. Blah.
Hoeg Law came back after a long hiatus to do an excellent video analyzing the ruling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9e_SOCoTLR0. His analysis truly is spectacular as always and this is well worth a watch to understand the ruling. Remember the confusion on the Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) from the last section that seemed to be set in stone? That was solved by modifying it in the resulting ruling:
From that Hoeg Law Video
One of the more interesting bits from the ruling is the following which is why I believe some viewed the case as more of a 50/50 situation. It essentially favors the FTC by defining the bar as "likelyhood to succeed in their own internal court" rather than "would this case succeed in the full process which would eventually be an appeal to a non-FTC court". Basically the ruling finds that they find the FTC unlikely to win even in their own internal, non-Federal court in the end for this case (which has a far lower bar than considering success in a Federal court):
From that Hoeg Law video.
Anyway... this court case was the big unknown for me personally. The appeal for whoever lost was always going to unlikely. Why? The loser is essentially asking for the appeals court to completely overturn this ruling in very limited time. The bar for that is high - as it should be. If it was the opposite where $MSFT lost the case, the FTC wouldn't want an appeals court to overturn the ruling with zero new evidence and only hours to review the case. (Due to the July 18th deal date known for 1.5 years now, any appeals court decision would be a complete ruling reversal at this stage). To grant the loser of the end ruling the win would require some very serious errors in the end ruling - which just isn't the case here. People can disagree with aspects of the ruling but there isn't anything that the vast majority of judges would agree is a major flaw to cause such a serious ruling reversal remedy. This is why that first ruling was so important and why it was such a risk.

Wednesday, July 12th and Thursday, July 13th Positioning:

As panic set in the market over uncertainty of the UK situation, the stock price has suffered. Even news that $ATVI was being replaced in the Nasdaq 100 didn't help things. (Note: this isn't the stock market but the ETFs such as what $QQQ represents. $ATVI stock would suffer when removed and it still has a large market cap... so this wouldn't happen lightly). Throughout these days, I started to add July 21st options again. I viewed the likelyhood of closing by July 18th at this point at around 95% and July 21st spreads could double one's money if that happened. I was seriously tempted to go all-in on this... but I have to respect that 5% chance of things going badly. As it stands, my positioning risk will already seem insane to many even with me believing those odds. In order to free up money for that bet, I did have to sell shares with my current positioning being:
Taxable Fidelity Account
The July 21st calls have my selling the July 21st 95c as that would expire worthless if the deal went through. Cost basis of $ATVI shares changed slightly as I sold down to the 4,000.
Fidelity IRA Account
IRA account doesn't allow for option spreads. ><
IBKR
I had some play money in this account an initially bought 500 $ATVI shares at $91.80 and sold 5 $ATVI January 95c calls against them for $0.47 each (using some margin for this). That was a really bad play. I exited that for a slight loss on Wednesday and now have that in a position of:
  • 95 July 21st 90c ($3.01 average price)
  • 18 July 21st 93c ($1.27 average price)
  • Sold 113 July 21st 95c ($0.26 average price)

The Latest Updates

The FTC is being slow to get its appeal in. They needed to first file a motion with the original judge that they only did today (Thursday, July 13th). Not surprisingly, that original judge stood by their ruling: https://twitter.com/FOSSpatents/status/1679699257786335232 . That has now left 27 hours for the FTC to get their appeal. How much time they have been wasting can be seen in Microsoft's first filing that points out that the FTC has wasted 75% of the Temporary Restraining Order's time since the ruling: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23875101-23-07-13-microsoft-opposition-to-ftc-motion
Meanwhile, the UK CMA stuff continues to look up. There is a new Bloomberg article on what Microsoft might be giving up there: https://twitter.com/tomwarren/status/1679643924984479744 . Tom Warren (Senior Editor for Verge covering this) also believes the UK CMA situation is likely settled: tweet 1, tweet 2.
As the Temporary Restraining Order ends at midnight on Friday, July 14th, we should know the appeals court decision for the FTC prior to then. If that is denied (as I expect), I personally think the deal closes by July 18th.
For those interested in just more content on the situation, FOSS Patents did do a recording with his thoughts of the FTC appeal here: https://twitter.com/FOSSpatents/status/1679570729635831808

Concluding Stuff

Depending on prices, I might add slightly more to my short dated YOLO but really cannot risk to go much more "all-in" here. One can't recover from a complete account wipe if one ends up wrong. No matter how much I think I've researched and read all the material available, I'm not infallible. I'm not even a lawyer! I have to rely on the expertise of others to know what is going on with these legal proceedings.
I'll update macro stuff, balances, and more in a future update that has the result of this play. This is a weekday and my time is limited. :) Congrats to all of the market bulls that continue to see great gains with macro data being quite good yet!
Feel free to comment to correct me if you disagree with anything I've written as I'm always open to reconsidering my current thinking. As always, these are just my personal opinions on what I'm doing with my portfolio. Thanks for reading and take care!

Previous YOLO Updates

submitted by Bluewolf1983 to Vitards [link] [comments]

2023.07.05 22:29 Burbury13 WTT: big list / WTTF: Polychorus/Echo Flanger, Lovetone, or something interesting? Offers welcome

Hello everyone!
Here are the pedals that I have to trade. I am fine with combining pedals, adding cash, having a moderator middle, etc. I want to make sure the trade is fair and safe for both of us. I have one trade completed here but have lots of feedback on eBay / reverb.
Pedals:
Source Audio Reflex - expression pedal. CV controller. Discontinued.
Boss dc-2w - comes with box.
Fulltone Ultimate Octave - Foxx Tone Machine clone. Used by Josh Homme in Queens of the Stone Age. Listen to the song Little Sister.
MXR Jimi Hendrix Fuzz Unit - rare and vintage. This is a fuzz face from the late 80s (I believe this one is from 87, but I'm going from memory). The enclosure is the standard MXR size, but they did not have the rights to the fuzz face name so they used fuzz unit. This was before they were mass produced, so this is hand-wired. Pedal board friendly vintage fuzz face.
MXR Jimi Hendrix Octave Fuzz - Used by Sonic Youth in several songs. This is a good octavia.
DOD FX 42b bass EQ - great EQ. Used by Tom Morello from Rage Against The Machine.
Frederic Effects Super Unpleasant Companion - comes with box and manual. Sounds just like the Jesus and Mary Chain.
Arc Effects Crimson King - comes with box and manual. This is a burns buzzaround clone. Nails the King Crimson / Robert Fripp sound. Can also go into tonebender or russian muff territory. This is a very unique fuzz.
EHX Ram’s head muff reissue
EHX Metal Muff with the top boost
Digitech Whammy V - comes with box, manual, and power supply.
Ibanez ADL - Analog delay. Great slapback, but can get crazy psychedelic sounding via the internal trimpot.
Boss DD-3 (early MIJ)
Modest Mike Gilmour Modified Big Muff
Boss DD-500 - comes with box, manual, etc.
Boss RV-500 - comes with box, manual, etc.
Boss FZ-3 - comes with box, manual, etc. has been used a couple times but not often. Sounds very smooth. Goes from Sabbath to Floyd. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VIbtnWE0N0U
Boss VB-2w - Comes with box, plastic, and manual. No velcro.
Moog moogerfooger phaser - comes with box, manual, power supply, etc.
Moog Freq Box - no box or power supply, but good condition.
Moog midi Murf - comes with box, manual, power supply, etc.
Bixonic Expandora 3rd version - comes with box and manual. Used by a ton of famous artists. Everyone from Slipknot (Duality, Before I Forget), to Radiohead (Bodysnatchers), to Bush (Glycerine, Comedown, Greedy Fly, etc. this was their main fuzz), to ZZ Top, and Josh Homme. This can do everything from a light overdrive, crunch, distortion, to one of the most amazing fuzz sounds I've ever heard. The circuit is very unique. The bloom and decay of the fuzz is extremely unique. This version can be switched to bass or guitar.
Marshall Shredmaster - Johnny Greenwood from Radiohead uses this.
late 80s vintage Proco Turbo Rat - woodcutter.
Fender Blender reissue - comes with box and manual. Great fuzz. Used by Neil Young, Kevin Shields of My Bloody Valentine, Billy Corgan of the Smashing Pumpkins, and George Harrison on the song "What Is Love?" from All Things Must Pass.
Fender Blender original from 1972 - four knob version. Nails the Smashing Pumpkins Gish sound. Very unique fuzz.
Shields Fender Blender - comes with everything. I compared it to my original blender and it sounds spot on. Love the sag feature.
Other:
Yamaha GEP-50 - rack unit. Same as the Yamaha spx 90, but with distortion options. Used by Kevin Shields for reverse reverb.
Alesis SR-16 drum machine
90’s Japanese Fender Mustang pickups
Jaguar classic player pickups
-----------------
WTTF:
Electro Harmonix Polychorus / Echo Flanger
Other big box EHX pedals
Lovetone pedals
Asheville Music Tools
Or anything interesting?
I am interested in hearing all offers. I’m also happy to answer any questions about these pedals, and will provide pictures.
Thanks!
submitted by Burbury13 to letstradepedals [link] [comments]

2023.06.28 02:57 Zenithine What's the best way to recover from completely wiping my portfolio?

I have 4320/4330 Bear Call Spreads open on the SPX. I open spreads like these every month, 30dte.
they pay out really nice and they felt really safe, this months (06/30 exp.) I opened when the SPX was trading down at like 4050, then we had the bull run.
I've already rolled them once and now im so underwater I cant even roll again - I just keep getting knocked back with "insufficient margin".
So unless we drop like a stone its likely I'm going to lose everything. Anyone have any advice for a way I can start building back up again?
submitted by Zenithine to PickleFinancial [link] [comments]

2023.06.08 18:54 r3crac BANGGOOD Deals (8.6.2023)!

BANGGOOD Deals Compilation (8.6.2023)!
Check products in compilation image: https://i.imgur.com/TKjg0vz.jpeg or https://i.ibb.co/mJLphwT/80235cd7f6d4.jpg
-1- MUSTOOL MT008 Digital Multimeter Pen
✅ https://bit.ly/3WY1HjE
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-2- ENJOYWOOD 5PCS 19/20mm Woodworking Quick Release Bench Dogs Clamp
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-3- Aluminum Chainsaw Sharpener with 2pcs Stone Grinders
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-4- Drillpro Adjustable 300mm Aluminum Alloy Combination Square Scriber
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-5- Flydigi Q1 Keyboard Mouse Converter
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-6- Ganwei Aluminum Alloy Woodworking Clamp Presser
👉 https://bit.ly/3D9sIpy
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🏆 Coupon: BG710259
-7- Convoy S2+ SST20 Flashlight
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🚨 Price: 12.99 USD / Lowest: -1 USD
-8- DATA FROG PS1 TV Game Console
❗️ https://bit.ly/3UaT6IV
✌️ Price: 12.99 USD / Lowest: 16.99 USD
-9- Ulanzi VL49 RGB LED Video Light 2500K-9000K [EU]
📌 https://bit.ly/3QSv8zj
🚨 Price: 13.99 USD / Lowest: 13.99 USD
👉 Coupon: BGaf9465
-10- Convoy S2+ T6-4C 4300-4500K Flashlight Black
📌 https://bit.ly/43LhG6T
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📌 Coupon: BGBLF29
-11- Convoy S2+ T6-4C 4300-4500K Flashlight Black
🛒 https://bit.ly/43LhG6T
🥇 Price: 14.99 USD / Lowest: 13.59 USD
-12- Stainless Steel 45 Degree Miter Angle Corner Ruler
✳️ https://bit.ly/3p5JhNv
📉 Price: 16.99 USD / Lowest: 17.99 USD
🖍 Coupon: BGd1bfb8
-13- FONSON Upgrade Extended Woodworking Thin Rip Guide
❗️ https://bit.ly/3WT3iav
📉 Price: 18.99 USD / Lowest: 18.99 USD
❤️ Coupon: BG9d43c6
-14- Drillpro Upgraded Double Feather Board
❇️ https://bit.ly/3WXxEbQ
🚨 Price: 18.99 USD / Lowest: 19.99 USD
🎯 Coupon: BGdde408
-15- Lenovo C8 Bluetooth V5.0 Smart Sunglasses
❗️ https://bit.ly/3FOlLyw
💰 Price: 18.99 USD / Lowest: 19.99 USD
🏆 Coupon: BG32737f
-16- Flexible Desk 22cm 5X LED Magnifying Glass
👌 https://bit.ly/3P01x9m
⭕️ Price: 19.99 USD / Lowest: 19.99 USD
❤️ Coupon: BG0ba985
-17- Astrolux BC6 2000lm Bike Headlight
🌍 https://bit.ly/3oQwphW
💣 Price: 21.99 USD / Lowest: -1 USD
📌 Coupon: BGALBC66
-18- HONGDUI 3 In 1 Measuring Drill Depth Gauge
👉 https://bit.ly/3MQCTFA
💣 Price: 22.99 USD / Lowest: 22.99 USD
💵 Coupon: BGc3b879
-19- M2 SSD Hard Drive Enclosure Case M.2 NVMe/SATA
❗️ https://bit.ly/3M8TftZ
⭕️ Price: 22.99 USD / Lowest: 24.99 USD
-20- BlitzMax BT06 Audio Transmitter Receiver BT5.2
✅ https://bit.ly/3JTuSPX
🥇 Price: 23.99 USD / Lowest: 25.99 USD
⏳ Coupon: BG8c0fbc
-21- Royal Kludge RK61 Bluetooth Keyboard Golden/Ice
🛒 https://bit.ly/3L5eMmQ
📉 Price: 23.99 USD / Lowest: 27.99 USD
🎯 Coupon: BG030005
-22- Drillpro Red Aluminum Cabinet Hardware Jig 4mm 5mm Drill Guide
❗️ https://bit.ly/45KmCuq
〽️ Price: 27.99 USD / Lowest: 24.99 USD
🔓 Coupon: BG463acc
-23- BlitzWolf BW-HP2 Pro Bluetooth Headphones
✌️ https://bit.ly/3RKVCDw
💣 Price: 27.99 USD / Lowest: 27.99 USD
🖍 Coupon: BG58644f
-24- BlitzWolf BW-FYE13 Bluetooth 5.2 Earphones QCC3040
📌 https://bit.ly/43ryGPN
💣 Price: 28.99 USD / Lowest: 28.99 USD
🏆 Coupon: BGf14887
-25- Folding Bluetooth Keyboard With Folding Touchpad Leather Case
🔗 https://bit.ly/44oScgL
👉 Price: 32.99 USD / Lowest: 34.99 USD
-26- 18V 6.0Ah Battery For Makita
🌀 https://bit.ly/3AsIwVX
👌 Price: 36.37 USD / Lowest: 31.99 USD
✏️ Coupon: BGd6d4c6
-27- 10KHz-1.5GHz MF HF VHF UHF Digital NanoVNA-H Vector Antenna Analyzer
👉 https://bit.ly/3P0Erzm
🔹 Price: 36.99 USD / Lowest: 39.99 USD
📌 Coupon: BG53ef2b
-28- FNIRSI-GC01 Geiger Counter
🌐 https://bit.ly/3EIdERY
💰 Price: 40.99 USD / Lowest: 42.99 USD
🔖 Coupon: BG90f536
-29- Wireless Air Pump 15000mAh 150PSI
🌍 https://bit.ly/43qXMhP
✌️ Price: 42.49 USD / Lowest: 42.49 USD
👉 Coupon: BGLMQ15
-30- HONGDUI SC-14 Woodworking Fixing Clamp
❗️ https://bit.ly/3xoVGRA
📉 Price: 44.99 USD / Lowest: 44.99 USD
❤️ Coupon: BG289044
-31- VIOLEWORKS 288VF 1/2inch 800Nm Impact Wrench with 2 Batteries [EU]
📌 https://bit.ly/3NAH1bf
💰 Price: 45.25 USD / Lowest: 39.84 USD
🖍 Coupon: BG7fe2ec
-32- Woodworking Bearing Roller Feeder
✅ https://bit.ly/3IXAPus
👉 Price: 45.99 USD / Lowest: 45.99 USD
🔑 Coupon: BG07813e
-33- BlitzWolf BW-HP5 Bluetooth Headset ANC
🌐 https://bit.ly/3TVrS7G
🚨 Price: 47.99 USD / Lowest: 47.99 USD
💎 Coupon: BG39d279
-34- WPL E1 Crawler Transport RC Vehicle with 2 Batteries
❇️ https://bit.ly/3CoTxqR
👌 Price: 48.97 USD / Lowest: 49.99 USD
✏️ Coupon: BGb9bf49
-35- MUSTOOL MDS120M Professional Digital Oscilloscope
🌀 https://bit.ly/43MUrt1
💲 Price: 61.99 USD / Lowest: 63.99 USD
🔓 Coupon: BGc16d3c
-36- JJRC X28 Drone RTF with 2 Batteries
👉 https://bit.ly/43BeZ7T
⭕️ Price: 79.99 USD / Lowest: 79.99 USD
💵 Coupon: BG3621a4
-37- MJX 16207 HYPER GO 1/16 Brushless RC Car
❗️ https://bit.ly/40sl9WG
🔹 Price: 112.65 USD / Lowest: 113.99 USD
⏳ Coupon: BGc3b067
-38- MJX 16208 16209 HYPER GO 1/16 Brushless RC Car with 2 Batteries
🌐 https://bit.ly/3CiQD76
✌️ Price: 119.51 USD / Lowest: 115.19 USD
✂️ Coupon: BGd7ddec
-39- BlitzWolf BW-PCM9 16 Inch 1920x1200P Type-C Portable Monitor
👉 https://bit.ly/3WmTlBV
👌 Price: 159.99 USD / Lowest: 159.79 USD
🔖 Coupon: BG649899
-40- Hiseeu Wireless Security Camera System 2K with Solar Panels
🔗 https://bit.ly/3MZnClM
🚨 Price: 187.99 USD / Lowest: 199.99 USD
👉 Coupon: BG589b2e
-41- ROYALBABY STARGIRL 14 Inch Bike [EU]
📌 https://bit.ly/3MSJPC9
〽️ Price: 199.99 USD / Lowest: 199.99 USD
-42- FunWater SUPFW02A 12-15PSI Inflatable Paddle Board 320x84x15cm [EU]
✳️ https://bit.ly/43IkTUw
🔹 Price: 201.00 USD / Lowest: 215.99 USD
💎 Coupon: BGCZBP17
-43- ROYALBABY STARGIRL 16 Inch Children Bike [EU]
🌀 https://bit.ly/3CiABKy
🔹 Price: 208.99 USD / Lowest: 208.99 USD
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submitted by r3crac to couponsfromchina [link] [comments]

2023.05.19 23:34 Adderalin Portfolio Margin Guide

What is portfolio margin? It is a risked based method of giving you margin based on the expected worst case one day move.
Max out your BP unwisely all long SPY at 15% margin (6.66x leverage) then if you lose exactly one dollar on the position = $1 dollar margin call. Spy gaps down 15% overnight = lose entire account. Spy gaps down 20% overnight = owe your broker.
You need $110k - $125k - $175k - $250k of equity to enable it with various brokerages.

Reg-T vs Portfolio Margin

Reg-T margin is strategy based. It's based on over time that roughly a 100% spy position happens to lose 50% of it's value before recovering, long individual stocks likewise don't drop more than 50% before a broker can reasonably react in a few days, and short options probably introduce 20% losses of the underlying's stock price.
Reg-T breaks margin into initial and maintenance margin. Most brokerages offer 2x initial margin for stocks, and 25%-30% maintenance margin.
If you have a 100k account you can buy 200k of SPY and your stock buying power is $0 and options buying power is $0. You have a negative 100k cash balance - your margin loan.
Then you currently have $100k equity as a millisecond later you can probably close your trade for the same exact price and pay off your margin loan.
Now let's say spy dips down to where you have $25k equity. This would be a 125k spy position on 100k margin loan. Spy would have to drop 37.5%. At this point you are at 5x leverage and you're putting your brokers money at risk. With a 25% maintenance margin broker you will now send you a margin call. Most brokers use 30% maintenance margin.
Portfolio Margin is Different:
Portfolio Margin is risk based. It is based on the realistic risk how various stocks and indexes move in one day. Portfolio margin stress tests your individual positions based on a "risk array" testing down moves at -3%, -6%, -9%, -12%, and -15% for most stocks and indexes. It also tests up moves in the same percentages. Whatever is the maximum loss becomes the margin required.
Portfolio Margin your initial margin = maintenance margin. You get immediate margin relief. Unlike Reg-T margin where you only get extra leverage if it goes against you, PM gives it to you right away.
Then at TD Ameritrade, it is displayed differently. Everyone is used to options BP = cash and stock BP = 2x cash, and if you spend all of your money on long spy unlevered you only have .5x option BP.
For a $100k Reg-T account buying $100k of spy you will have $50k option BP remaining and $100k stock BP remaining.
On a $100k PM account you'll see $100k option BP and $100k stock BP. I've seen some people get really upset and turn off PM thinking they didn't get any leverage. However if you try to buy $100k of spy that will cost $15k option and stock BP (from here on it's going to be just BP.) Leaving you with $85k BP left to deploy capital more efficiently or do other trades with leverage!
On PM having $0 BP = instant margin call if you close or open the next day $0 or negative for roughly the amount of BP needed to bring it back up.
I like to keep a healthy buffer.

Options Trading Reg-T vs Portfolio Margin

So you might be thinking - well what's great about PM if Reg-T gives me 100-50k options BP and PM gives me 100k-85k?
The answer is BP calculations are different. Read over The Margin Investor's Reg-T Calculation Guide and how various Option Strategies Perform under PM.
Most of us have found that selling naked calls and naked puts tend to bring in the most money profitably. The Reg-T calculations work by:
Uncovered Call (i.e. Naked Call) A short in-the-money (or at-the-money) call: 100% of the option market value plus 15% of the underlying price for Broad Based Indexes or 20% for Equities and Narrow Based Indexes. A short out-of-the-money call must have an amount posted into the account equal to the maximum of: 1) 100% of the option market value plus 10% of the underlying price or 2) 100% of the option market value plus 20% (or 15% for Broad Based Indexes) of the underlying price minus 100% the out-of-the-money amount.
Uncovered Puts (i.e. Naked Puts) A short in-the-money (or at-the-money) put must have 100% of the option market value plus 15% of the underlying price for Broad Based Indexes or 20% for Equities and Narrow Based Indexes. A short out-of-the-money put must have an amount posted into the account equal to the maximum of: 1) 100% of the option market value plus 10% of the underlying price or 2) 100% of the received premium plus 20% (or 15% for Broad Based Indexes) of the underlying price minus 100% the out-of-the-money amount.
Portfolio margin is different. It takes the risk array I wrote above and likewise stresses your positions. That means - any short options that are statically 15% out of the money or more have very little buying power requirements. The buying power for OTM options becomes what theoretical option pricing formulas say the option should be priced if the stock dropped 15%. Portfolio applies a $0.375 per share ($37.50) minimum margin requirement for any short options regardless of how far out of the money they are too.
(many brokers use 30% maintenance and 20% of underlying)
On Reg-T no matter how far out of the money you sell options you are still getting that 10-20% of the underlying price reserved minus OTM amount. Ouch. You may as well have sold the ATM straddle!
Reg-T doesn't allow your premium from your short calls to offset your short puts. Portfolio margin does! Portfolio margin gives you 15% instead of 20% bp on a short straddle, and lets you add the premium from the put or call sold, then figures out your maximum risk for your whole position. So in effect if the expected move on a straddle is 5% each way, the stock can't both go up or down, and so your margin on PM works out to be about 10% of the underlying stock for the ATM straddle!

Portfolio Margin is steroids for option selling strategies

The popular lottos strategy sold $5 puts and calls so far out of the money (50%) that they had the minimum $37.50 margin even if the stock shot up 15% and put you 35% out of the money. A simple math calculation would show your return on buying power is $5 / $37.50 = 13.3%. Imagine selling this once a week, every week. Insane profit right? It was!
The same trade on Reg-T would be $5 + 20% of the underlying stock... on a $100 stock that'd be $2,000 margin please. $4k on a $200 stock, and so on. Crazy right - you can't scale this strategy and sell it on a massive number of stocks. With Portfolio Margin - you can. On my $225k account I currently have short option positions on 259 active positions.
Now, lots of people claim selling these options were picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. Let's be realistic here, how many stocks suddenly just shoot up 50%? Very few - maybe a few outstanding earnings reports (easy to dodge), and buyouts - which are unpredictable. Is it realistic that all 259 of my positions will jump 50% all at once? No.
Ok, let's do the math on what if I just had $5 on 259 positions, well that is $1,295 a week. Lets say we stick to $100 stocks or under. How much loss would it be if one of those stocks had a buyout? Well, worst case if it is a $100 stock, we sold the $150 call, and lets say they got a juicy $200 per share offer (really really rare - most buyouts are 20% to 30% above market.) Well, that is a $5,000 loss. So, with this strategy in order to have enough income to overcome that, its $5,000 / $1,295 = 3.8 weeks before we are up $5 grand.
Portfolio Margin encourages spreading the risk wide and far.

No Early Assignment Fears

As you can see above Reg-T requires 20% + market price of the option, while PM measures your combined risk on a +- 15% move (most stocks, excluding house margin), regardless if it was options or long stock. Remember - reg T requires 50% initial margin on any assignment - leading to you know what - high BP utilization or possibly margin calls on assignment!
On Portfolio Margin your BP does not significantly change because of an assignment! (Assuming the stock price is the same when you're assigned.)
We have a potential trade going long 100 shares of TSLA. Notice it is $5,016 BP. Now assume we short the long at the money 0.50 delta TSLA put, notice its $4,640 BP, giving you lower bp because you took in some premium ($400.)
Adding $400 back gives you 5040.03 BP requirements, basically the same risk! The raw short put is slightly higher risk as vol expansion can make the buyback premiums higher than the same movement risk loss on the underlying stock.
There are no early assignment fears trading on portfolio margin for most trades! If you started out shorting a straddle you want that early assignment as it meant the buyer blew up their remaining theta!
Now remember to still trade responsibly. You don't want to oversize any short option trade where if it touches the money it severely puts your account at risk. I personally don't risk more than 1% to 2% of my account for if a position goes at the money. That's a $1k-$2k loss per $100k NLV.
You also don't want to get too used to Portfolio Margin that you start getting really sloppy on your trade management practices that you let positions ride the second they touch the money because you have a lot more margin and breathing room than Reg-T. I come up with % out of the money targets I close all my trades at. Imagine having a $4k loss with SIVB being $267/share, then next thing you get whacked with a $267 per share loss or $26.7k per contract loss.
Always keep notional risk and concentration risk in mind on trading on portfolio margin!

Concentration Rules

PNR vs EPR
What stops one from opening a $125k PM account and buying $825k of TSLA, and owing the broker money if TSLA opened 30% down? Concentration rules!
Each brokerage has concentration rules that make such tactics hard or impossible.
I'm only familiar with TD Ameritrade's concentration rules so I'll briefly cover them here:
In addition to the -15% /+15% risk array stress test, TD Ameritrade tests your portfolio by testing its Point of No Return (PNR) compared to the Expected Price Range (EPR). For TSLA, the EPR is 50%, which means TDA can conceivably see TSLA gapping open 50% down overnight.
So why is TDA allowing me to go 6.6x on TSLA but they think they'd really open 50% down? Only if I bet really small will they allow me the full buying power reduction.
If they see I'd lose my entire account if TSLA dropped 50%, they move the risk array to test -50% / +50% instead. This greatly inflates the buying power and now your account is locked as your buying power is well past your net liquidation value!
If the PNR is outside of EPR, then the risk array will generally default to the TIMS (Theoretical Intermarket Margining system) minimum margin percentage. This applies to both up and down movement; for example, if upside PNR is 60% and EPR is 50%, then margin will generally default to TIMS. Similarly, if downside PNR is -50% and downside EPR is -30%, then margin will generally default to TIMS.
Under the TIMS methodology, equity positions are generally stressed at plus or minus 15%.
If PNRs are outside of the EPR, then the house risk array is used, generally with TIMS percentages. Now, if the converse occurs, that is, when the PNR is inside the EPR range, then a risk concentration exists, and action is taken in real time to increase the portfolio margin requirement. When concentration exists, the margin requirement will be set to the EPR. For example, if upside PNR is 30% and upside EPR is 40%, then the margin requirement will use 40% EPR to calculate the risk array even if the TIMS minimum may be 15%, for example.
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/trading/how-does-portfolio-margin-work--15553
Short Unit Test
Ok ok, I know, what if I sell a bunch of options with insane leverage on many tickers and use up all my BP? Well TDA has another concentration rule called the Short Unit Test. You can only have your NLV / 200 in net short counts of call options and put options. It kind of makes the minimum BP be $200. A $100k account can only be short 500 naked call options and 500 naked put options. So the maximum growth you'd get on $5 per contract lottos would be $5k/week on a $100k account. Hey - 5% a week is incredible.
SPX Beta Test All portfolio margin brokers require you to not lose X% of your account if SPX moves.
Spread the love on PM!

Amazing Portfolio Margin Trades you just can't do well in Reg-T

Portfolio Margin is amazing not just for adding risk - but also for hedging. Here are some of my favorite trades that I like to do in Portfolio Margin that is prohibitively expensive margin wise in reg-t:

Correlation Offsets

Portfolio Margin allows P&L offsets across various class groups, product groups, and portfolio group offsets. For instance if you buy SPY puts but have a long VOO position you get the full margin relief! Go buy the much more liquid SPY puts and sell SPY covered calls, and hang onto the VOO position. This is the one reason why VOO has illiquid options - only reg-t traders are trading these. Everyone else gets full margin relief by buying VOO and trading SPY options.
You can also get a 90% offset by being long VTI and buying SPY puts. This still greatly reduces margin.
The Margin Investor's website has a great breakdown showing the various offsets: http://www.themargininvestor.com/pl-offsets.html
My post on using Using Portfolio Margin to Legally Convert Realized STCG into LTCG Via Offsetting Pairs Trades makes use of these product group offsets to get crazy reduction of margin to do long-short trades getting a lot more margin relief than your typical 6.6x leverage!
I like to use the OCC's Portfolio Margin Calculator to look up the current various offsets: https://www.theocc.com/risk-management/portfolio-margin-calculator

Portfolio Margin vs SPAN

So, there is another risk based margin system - portfolio margin for futures, known as SPAN. SPAN offers two huge advantages over portfolio margin:
  1. SPAN's minimum account size is simply the buying power needed. You can start doing PM-like strategies well before needing $110k/$125k to enable it with various brokers!
  2. SPAN margin allows for correlation offsets among many more products/classes/and so on. Portfolio Margin limits it to "similar products." - think SPY and VTI.
On SPAN margin let's say you think live cattle futures are overbought so you decide to sell short them. However, you also know corn futures and cattle futures are highly correlated. Higher corn prices = higher cattle prices as cattle eats corn.
So on SPAN margin you can hedge and get significant correlation buying power reductions by going short cattle, and going long corn. You've just hedged the corn price risk from cattle and now you're really trading cattle. You've also hedged the USD risk out too - as both futures are denominated in USD:
Short Cattle is short cows and short USD Long Grain is long grain and long USD
Therefore:
USD cancels out, you don't care how the dollar moves to other currencies (yay infinite money printer), and your two trades are a lot more pure.
SPAN works by scanning your portfolio and applying various ever-changing offsets they base on current correlations.
You can't do this on TIMS outside say VTI vs VOO... SPY vs TLT is a NO. which brings me to...

A Confession

So - when I joined in Discord over a year ago I let everyone know that my margin blowup posts was fake, it never happened. I left a ton of clues which only TWO people ever picked up on and PMed me about:
First Post
Second Post
Blowup Post
The clues were:
  1. TDA Live PM never had -8% +6% risk array rules for SPX/TMF/UPRO at the time
  2. TDA PM had PNR at the time, I would have been PNR locked even with the correlation offsets! LOL!
  3. Portfolio Margin USED to have the same correlation offsets as SPAN did! It was in the PM Pilot Program. For good reasons they took it out. Yes, you USED to be able to offset UPRO and TMF (or SPY/TLT, etc) via correlations, how it used to work was it beta weighted any two ETFs or stocks and gave you insane leverage if they were uncorrelated or inversely correlated (or insane leverage for long/short portfolios for correlated products - ie long NVDA and short AMD). People blew up hard in the pilot program and the SEC took it out in 2006.
  4. PM margin calls are never 5 days - they are three business days AT MOST, and you REALLY should meet them same business day! (It's really helpful to be on the good side of risk management btw - I get a lot of leeway because I take my IRL trading seriously. They are your friends, not your enemy!)
  5. Which risk manager in the world would let ANY client turn a $454k debt/loss to keep invested until it was a $1m loss?!? (Well I might if my client was Buffet!)
Ironically TOS's Paper Trading Portfolio Margin still uses the pilot program rules! They never updated it!

Leveraged ETFs and PM

I originally wrote the blowup post out of anger as at the time TDA decided to make UPRO & TMF have a house margin of 90% on portfolio margin which is ridiculous. How LETFs are supposed to work is they multiply the risk array by the leverage factor. If SPY is 15% up and down, UPRO should be 45% up and down tests, basically instead of 15% BPu, it will be 45% BPu. Some reason TDA decided "LETFs were not suitable to hold for long terms" and ramp up house margin - on something that moves exactly like 3x spy in one day. Sure a year from now you could have a wasteland of a portfolio due to volatility decay - but I debate holding 3x leverage raw without resetting the leverage is going to do more to destroy a portfolio than holding UPRO.
Fortunately IBKR does the correct BPu calculations for UPRO and TMF.
So for PM outside of TD Ameritrade - BPu is the leverage factor times the underlying index the LETF tracks. Go crazy investing in LETFs outside of TD Ameritrade!

Day-Trading with PM

You can daytrade on PM at most brokers that offer realtime monitoring (TDA, Lightspeed,etc) up to 6.66x. Lime offers 8x intraday margin for $5m+ for daytrading on PM. Lightspeed offers up to 12x.
That is taking on a $60m position intraday with $5m. If you're amazing at day-trading - portfolio margin unlocks some serious leverage.

Gotchas with Portfolio Margin

The first thing to realize with portfolio margin is your BP usage is not static. It is real time, dynamically calculated every second stress testing all your positions. That means your $0 bp backratio trade on 30 dte might not be BP free at 20 dte! Likewise if you forget about your short calendar spread and the nearer month long expires off - hello naked short margin.
Also remember that you can easily oversize your account on PM. You can have too many beta-weighted deltas to SPY. In my most recent margin call I didn't realize I had 4x deltas to SPY in put options... that were still far out of the money and could easily explode to 5x more delta thanks to their repricing effects! If you're going to be trading short naked options on PM you must know how to beta weight your portfolio for delta, vega, and gamma, and realize what that means to SPY's movements, and not only know how to do it - but keep up with it every day. Same goes for beta testing your portfolio and obeying all other house margin rules (SUT, etc.)
Here are other oddities I've noticed with Thinkorswim Portfolio Margin:
Remember, at the end of the day portfolio margin really rewards well hedged positions. Adding on risk will quickly punt you back to reg-t effective levels if it starts moving against you.

Asset Protection Strategies With PM

I'm not a lawyer, and neither is Robert Green of Green Trader Tax, but Green has an asset protection suggestion:
If you want asset protection, consider a single-member LLC (SMLLC) taxed as a “disregarded entity.” That’s a “tax nothing” in the eyes of the IRS. You still file as a TTS sole proprietor on Schedule C.
A TTS trader might hire employees, lease an office, co-locate automated trading equipment with a broker, and use massive leverage. These traders should consider liability protection using an SMLLC. Consult an attorney.
In other articles on his website Green suggests to form your LLC in your home state to maximize asset protection strategies. Brokers tend to not require a require a personal guarantee for Portfolio Margin.

History of Portfolio Margin

Portfolio Margin has existed since 1986 - for self clearing member firms that had at least $5 million. This is why Lightspeed gives you raw TIMS margin at $5 million+:
No additional 20% of exchange mandated portfolio margin requirement (TIMS plus House add-ons).
Then in 1993 TIMS margin (Portfolio Margin) became available to Floor Brokers and Floor Traders under the 1993 SEC Net Capital Rules Admendment for floor brokers/traders that had at least $100k. That's right, if you have a time machine, print off my guide and go make some serious money getting insane margin relief from options trading.
2005 - Customer Portfolio Margin began as a pilot program.
2006 - SEC approved Portfolio Margin for retail
2007 - Thinkorswim started offering Portfolio Margin

Mini-Prime Brokerage Services

I wanted to talk a bit more about why there are are limited retail brokers offering customer-retail portfolio margin. I've finally got the right nomenclature down to search for better portfolio margin offerings. The OG Prime Brokerages - Goldman Sachs, JPM, etc., require huge minimums well past $1m/$10m if you want to directly prime with them, making getting a prime brokerage account unfeasible for most of us, and the previous list of prime brokers really small.
What you want to look for is known as mini-primes. These people are introducing brokers that carry smaller prime accounts ($500k-$1m), and combine several accounts to meet the much larger than legal requirements to prime with Goldman, JPM, etc. There are so many more people offering mini-prime services than I could ever imagine.
I want to expand on the legal requirements on how you can get a prime account with PM margin relief:
https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mr-noaction/pbroker012594-out.pdf
$100k+ Investment Adviser
Here is a potential loophole I found. Some people told me I should get a financial advisor. I felt so insulted by it as my trading has been averaging well above market for years now. Turns out the man running best performing hedge fund in the world (Renaissance Technologies) - Jim Simons has a financial advisor.
That’s right. The man whose hedge fund generated 66% average annual returns, the man whose fund took $100 billion out of the market, asked if it was a good idea to be shorting stocks at the absolute bottom. Just unbelievable.
So, while it's amazing that Simons had a financial advisor stop him from emotionally trading - I wonder if Simons had a financial advisor for another reason: To get prime services originally at $100k!
Previously RenTech has gotten in trouble for banks creating basket-option accounts and handing over the username-passwords to RenTech traders to trade in. It's possible Simons found an advisor to prime for $100k instead of $500k. :)
So you might be able to find a financial advisor that will "manage" your account but still let you do the manual trading inside the account!
Cross-guarantee
A Cross-Guarantee is the only other way to be able to have a prime brokerage account for less than $500k (still $100k minimum.) You can pool your money with others in a partnership-like entity structure to access a prime broker. You can all pool it in one giant account, or have a 500k+ master account cross-guarantee $100k+ sub accounts. See a good prime-brokerage securities lawyer!

Mini-Prime Requirements

Then mini-primes have a lot more flexibility. Large banks might require $200k+ of commissioned revenue/clearing fees/etc to be interested in priming with you directly. A mini prime like StoneX only requires $40k per year. A bank can take 1 month to 6 months to get set up with an account. StoneX - 2 weeks.
Minimum PB revenue of 40k per year
$40k/year in commissions isn't much - its $3,330/month. My annualized commissions on $175k NLV doing the "lottos" options trading strategy was $30k! I'm now 230k and I'm close to meeting their minimum revenue per year well below most prime's minimum sizes!

Prime-Broker Short Selling

With a prime broker account you can sign custom lending agreements where you can get partial to full use of the short sale proceeds! That's right, you can find lenders that will allow you to NOT segregate short-sale proceeds and you can then use it to buy stocks!

Networking is a huge edge

Finally, I really love that StoneX is open and transparent about their requirements and benefits. The last thing they offer is this:
Industry event invites Yes
Networking, networking is huge. Do you think TDA would invite you to an industry event? Naw, they're happy to pocket my $39k/year commissions I'm currently generating for them.
My biggest edge in trading isn't strategy specific (lottos, etc), it's networking. Every trading edge I've discovered it's died in 6 months or so. Being able to talk with my network of trading friends, venture capital contacts, etc., has allowed me to have more trading ideas than I have capital for, so when one edge dies I can jump to the next edge immediately if it still exists.
I wouldn't have made back all my HFEA losses if it wasn't for networking with this subreddit and discord, which is why I continue to write extensive detailed guides to give back to the community. <3
At the end of the day the various edges I've found are a result of market participants, and being flexible and knowing what the market is doing helps identify possible new fundamental advantages/edges.

Broker-Dealer (BD) Risk-Based Haircuts (PM for BDs, $100k+)

BD margin is known as Risk Based Haircuts, link below.
Broker-Dealers who are not clearing/market makers: Raw TIMS: +/- 15% for equities, narrow-based indexes, non-high cap indexes. +- 10% for high cap index, +-6% for major forex, +-20% for all other currencies.
Non-Clearing Specialists/Market Makers: +6/-8% for high cap indexes, +/-10% for non-high cap indexes, +-4.5% for major forex.
For any BD: $0.25 per share min margin ($25 per contract) (remember retail is 0.375!) 95% high-cap-diverse-index correlation offset instead of the 90% retail gets for indexes, and 92.5% for non-high-cap-diverse index (retail only gets ~70%).
Then like the above prime-broker accounts, you can pool money to meet various broker-dealer net-capital requirements! It is known as a Joint Back Office Arrangement. Every partner in a JBO needs to be a registered and licensed broker-dealer with different securities licenses depending on your home state. (Series 23/24, Series 7, Series 56, and so on!) JBOs these days have became less popular with the proliferation of customer portfolio margin, so for most people these days forming a JBO is limited to Prop Firms that want to mark up commissions or trade against their traders (modern legal-bucket shops) and legit prop firms that want to act as Market-Makers/High Frequency Traders that need to directly connect to an equities or equities-option exchange, as exchange rules require you to be licensed.
Option Market Makers don't require a locate to hedge bonafide option trades. Since 2008 the SEC removed their close-out exemption in Reg-SHO, so they HAVE to deliver by settlement.

Various Customer-Portfolio Margin Brokerages ($100k+ requirement)

If you know of any brokerages that offer customer-PM let me know and I'll add it to the list here!

Prime / Mini-Prime Brokers List ($500k+, or $100k+ w/ advisocross-guarantee)

If you have any more prime/mini-prime offerings, please let me know!

Sources

FINRA Portfolio Margin FAQ
FINRA Net Capital Rules
Risk Based Haircuts
The Margin Investor
SEC 1994 Prime Broker Regulations
Joint Back Office Arrangements

TL;DR

Portfolio Margin is a risk based margin system that greatly juices leveraged margin strategies to 6.6x raw delta 1.0 leverage, and insane levels for options.
Portfolio Margin allows you to sell naked far OTM options that only take $37.50 per contract on margin, while Reg-T would require $2005 margin for a $100 stock.
$5 / $37.50 bp = 13.333% return on capital.
Any option that is 15% out the money or more gets maximum buying power compared to Reg-T.
Spread the love on as many positions as possible on PM! Use innovative hedges that don't margin well with Reg-T accounts. Try new strategies that are only realistically executed in a portfolio margined account!
submitted by Adderalin to PMTraders [link] [comments]

2023.05.05 19:23 Adderalin Test

What is portfolio margin? It is a risked based method of giving you margin based on the expected worst case one day move.
Max out your BP unwisely all long SPY at 15% margin (6.66x leverage) then if you lose exactly one dollar on the position = $1 dollar margin call. Spy gaps down 15% overnight = lose entire account. Spy gaps down 20% overnight = owe your broker.
You need $110k - $125k - $175k - $250k of equity to enable it with various brokerages.

Reg-T vs Portfolio Margin

Reg-T margin is strategy based. It's based on over time that roughly a 100% spy position happens to lose 50% of it's value before recovering, long individual stocks likewise don't drop more than 50% before a broker can reasonably react in a few days, and short options probably introduce 20% losses of the underlying's stock price.
Reg-T breaks margin into initial and maintenance margin. Most brokerages offer 2x initial margin for stocks, and 25%-30% maintenance margin.
If you have a 100k account you can buy 200k of SPY and your stock buying power is $0 and options buying power is $0. You have a negative 100k cash balance - your margin loan.
Then you currently have $100k equity as a millisecond later you can probably close your trade for the same exact price and pay off your margin loan.
Now let's say spy dips down to where you have $25k equity. This would be a 125k spy position on 100k margin loan. Spy would have to drop 37.5%. At this point you are at 5x leverage and you're putting your brokers money at risk. With a 25% maintenance margin broker you will now send you a margin call. Most brokers use 30% maintenance margin.
Portfolio Margin is Different:
Portfolio Margin is risk based. It is based on the realistic risk how various stocks and indexes move in one day. Portfolio margin stress tests your individual positions based on a "risk array" testing down moves at -3%, -6%, -9%, -12%, and -15% for most stocks and indexes. It also tests up moves in the same percentages. Whatever is the maximum loss becomes the margin required.
Portfolio Margin your initial margin = maintenance margin. You get immediate margin relief. Unlike Reg-T margin where you only get extra leverage if it goes against you, PM gives it to you right away.
Then at TD Ameritrade, it is displayed differently. Everyone is used to options BP = cash and stock BP = 2x cash, and if you spend all of your money on long spy unlevered you only have .5x option BP.
For a $100k Reg-T account buying $100k of spy you will have $50k option BP remaining and $100k stock BP remaining.
On a $100k PM account you'll see $100k option BP and $100k stock BP. I've seen some people get really upset and turn off PM thinking they didn't get any leverage. However if you try to buy $100k of spy that will cost $15k option and stock BP (from here on it's going to be just BP.) Leaving you with $85k BP left to deploy capital more efficiently or do other trades with leverage!
On PM having $0 BP = instant margin call if you close or open the next day $0 or negative for roughly the amount of BP needed to bring it back up.
I like to keep a healthy buffer.

Options Trading Reg-T vs Portfolio Margin

So you might be thinking - well what's great about PM if Reg-T gives me 100-50k options BP and PM gives me 100k-85k?
The answer is BP calculations are different. Read over The Margin Investor's Reg-T Calculation Guide and how various Option Strategies Perform under PM.
Most of us have found that selling naked calls and naked puts tend to bring in the most money profitably. The Reg-T calculations work by:
Uncovered Call (i.e. Naked Call) A short in-the-money (or at-the-money) call: 100% of the option market value plus 15% of the underlying price for Broad Based Indexes or 20% for Equities and Narrow Based Indexes. A short out-of-the-money call must have an amount posted into the account equal to the maximum of: 1) 100% of the option market value plus 10% of the underlying price or 2) 100% of the option market value plus 20% (or 15% for Broad Based Indexes) of the underlying price minus 100% the out-of-the-money amount.
Uncovered Puts (i.e. Naked Puts) A short in-the-money (or at-the-money) put must have 100% of the option market value plus 15% of the underlying price for Broad Based Indexes or 20% for Equities and Narrow Based Indexes. A short out-of-the-money put must have an amount posted into the account equal to the maximum of: 1) 100% of the option market value plus 10% of the underlying price or 2) 100% of the received premium plus 20% (or 15% for Broad Based Indexes) of the underlying price minus 100% the out-of-the-money amount.
Portfolio margin is different. It takes the risk array I wrote above and likewise stresses your positions. That means - any short options that are statically 15% out of the money or more have very little buying power requirements. The buying power for OTM options becomes what theoretical option pricing formulas say the option should be priced if the stock dropped 15%. Portfolio applies a $0.375 per share ($37.50) minimum margin requirement for any short options regardless of how far out of the money they are too.
(many brokers use 30% maintenance and 20% of underlying)
On Reg-T no matter how far out of the money you sell options you are still getting that 10-20% of the underlying price reserved minus OTM amount. Ouch. You may as well have sold the ATM straddle!
Reg-T doesn't allow your premium from your short calls to offset your short puts. Portfolio margin does! Portfolio margin gives you 15% instead of 20% bp on a short straddle, and lets you add the premium from the put or call sold, then figures out your maximum risk for your whole position. So in effect if the expected move on a straddle is 5% each way, the stock can't both go up or down, and so your margin on PM works out to be about 10% of the underlying stock for the ATM straddle!

Portfolio Margin is steroids for option selling strategies

The popular lottos strategy sold $5 puts and calls so far out of the money (50%) that they had the minimum $37.50 margin even if the stock shot up 15% and put you 35% out of the money. A simple math calculation would show your return on buying power is $5 / $37.50 = 13.3%. Imagine selling this once a week, every week. Insane profit right? It was!
The same trade on Reg-T would be $5 + 20% of the underlying stock... on a $100 stock that'd be $2,000 margin please. $4k on a $200 stock, and so on. Crazy right - you can't scale this strategy and sell it on a massive number of stocks. With Portfolio Margin - you can. On my $225k account I currently have short option positions on 259 active positions.
Now, lots of people claim selling these options were picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. Let's be realistic here, how many stocks suddenly just shoot up 50%? Very few - maybe a few outstanding earnings reports (easy to dodge), and buyouts - which are unpredictable. Is it realistic that all 259 of my positions will jump 50% all at once? No.
Ok, let's do the math on what if I just had $5 on 259 positions, well that is $1,295 a week. Lets say we stick to $100 stocks or under. How much loss would it be if one of those stocks had a buyout? Well, worst case if it is a $100 stock, we sold the $150 call, and lets say they got a juicy $200 per share offer (really really rare - most buyouts are 20% to 30% above market.) Well, that is a $5,000 loss. So, with this strategy in order to have enough income to overcome that, its $5,000 / $1,295 = 3.8 weeks before we are up $5 grand.
Portfolio Margin encourages spreading the risk wide and far.

No Early Assignment Fears

As you can see above Reg-T requires 20% + market price of the option, while PM measures your combined risk on a +- 15% move (most stocks, excluding house margin), regardless if it was options or long stock. Remember - reg T requires 50% initial margin on any assignment - leading to you know what - high BP utilization or possibly margin calls on assignment!
On Portfolio Margin your BP does not significantly change because of an assignment! (Assuming the stock price is the same when you're assigned.)
We have a potential trade going long 100 shares of TSLA. Notice it is $5,016 BP. Now assume we short the long at the money 0.50 delta TSLA put, notice its $4,640 BP, giving you lower bp because you took in some premium ($400.)
Adding $400 back gives you 5040.03 BP requirements, basically the same risk! The raw short put is slightly higher risk as vol expansion can make the buyback premiums higher than the same movement risk loss on the underlying stock.
There are no early assignment fears trading on portfolio margin for most trades! If you started out shorting a straddle you want that early assignment as it meant the buyer blew up their remaining theta!
Now remember to still trade responsibly. You don't want to oversize any short option trade where if it touches the money it severely puts your account at risk. I personally don't risk more than 1% to 2% of my account for if a position goes at the money. That's a $1k-$2k loss per $100k NLV.
You also don't want to get too used to Portfolio Margin that you start getting really sloppy on your trade management practices that you let positions ride the second they touch the money because you have a lot more margin and breathing room than Reg-T. I come up with % out of the money targets I close all my trades at. Imagine having a $4k loss with SIVB being $267/share, then next thing you get whacked with a $267 per share loss or $26.7k per contract loss.
Always keep notional risk and concentration risk in mind on trading on portfolio margin!

Concentration Rules

PNR vs EPR
What stops one from opening a $125k PM account and buying $825k of TSLA, and owing the broker money if TSLA opened 30% down? Concentration rules!
Each brokerage has concentration rules that make such tactics hard or impossible.
I'm only familiar with TD Ameritrade's concentration rules so I'll briefly cover them here:
In addition to the -15% /+15% risk array stress test, TD Ameritrade tests your portfolio by testing its Point of No Return (PNR) compared to the Expected Price Range (EPR). For TSLA, the EPR is 50%, which means TDA can conceivably see TSLA gapping open 50% down overnight.
So why is TDA allowing me to go 6.6x on TSLA but they think they'd really open 50% down? Only if I bet really small will they allow me the full buying power reduction.
If they see I'd lose my entire account if TSLA dropped 50%, they move the risk array to test -50% / +50% instead. This greatly inflates the buying power and now your account is locked as your buying power is well past your net liquidation value!
If the PNR is outside of EPR, then the risk array will generally default to the TIMS (Theoretical Intermarket Margining system) minimum margin percentage. This applies to both up and down movement; for example, if upside PNR is 60% and EPR is 50%, then margin will generally default to TIMS. Similarly, if downside PNR is -50% and downside EPR is -30%, then margin will generally default to TIMS.
Under the TIMS methodology, equity positions are generally stressed at plus or minus 15%.
If PNRs are outside of the EPR, then the house risk array is used, generally with TIMS percentages. Now, if the converse occurs, that is, when the PNR is inside the EPR range, then a risk concentration exists, and action is taken in real time to increase the portfolio margin requirement. When concentration exists, the margin requirement will be set to the EPR. For example, if upside PNR is 30% and upside EPR is 40%, then the margin requirement will use 40% EPR to calculate the risk array even if the TIMS minimum may be 15%, for example.
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/trading/how-does-portfolio-margin-work--15553
Short Unit Test
Ok ok, I know, what if I sell a bunch of options with insane leverage on many tickers and use up all my BP? Well TDA has another concentration rule called the Short Unit Test. You can only have your NLV / 200 in net short counts of call options and put options. It kind of makes the minimum BP be $200. A $100k account can only be short 500 naked call options and 500 naked put options. So the maximum growth you'd get on $5 per contract lottos would be $5k/week on a $100k account. Hey - 5% a week is incredible.
SPX Beta Test All portfolio margin brokers require you to not lose X% of your account if SPX moves.
Spread the love on PM!

Amazing Portfolio Margin Trades you just can't do well in Reg-T

Portfolio Margin is amazing not just for adding risk - but also for hedging. Here are some of my favorite trades that I like to do in Portfolio Margin that is prohibitively expensive margin wise in reg-t:

Correlation Offsets

Portfolio Margin allows P&L offsets across various class groups, product groups, and portfolio group offsets. For instance if you buy SPY puts but have a long VOO position you get the full margin relief! Go buy the much more liquid SPY puts and sell SPY covered calls, and hang onto the VOO position. This is the one reason why VOO has illiquid options - only reg-t traders are trading these. Everyone else gets full margin relief by buying VOO and trading SPY options.
You can also get a 90% offset by being long VTI and buying SPY puts. This still greatly reduces margin.
The Margin Investor's website has a great breakdown showing the various offsets: http://www.themargininvestor.com/pl-offsets.html
My post on using Using Portfolio Margin to Legally Convert Realized STCG into LTCG Via Offsetting Pairs Trades makes use of these product group offsets to get crazy reduction of margin to do long-short trades getting a lot more margin relief than your typical 6.6x leverage!
I like to use the OCC's Portfolio Margin Calculator to look up the current various offsets: https://www.theocc.com/risk-management/portfolio-margin-calculator

Portfolio Margin vs SPAN

So, there is another risk based margin system - portfolio margin for futures, known as SPAN. SPAN offers two huge advantages over portfolio margin:
  1. SPAN's minimum account size is simply the buying power needed. You can start doing PM-like strategies well before needing $110k/$125k to enable it with various brokers!
  2. SPAN margin allows for correlation offsets among many more products/classes/and so on. Portfolio Margin limits it to "similar products." - think SPY and VTI.
On SPAN margin let's say you think live cattle futures are overbought so you decide to sell short them. However, you also know corn futures and cattle futures are highly correlated. Higher corn prices = higher cattle prices as cattle eats corn.
So on SPAN margin you can hedge and get significant correlation buying power reductions by going short cattle, and going long corn. You've just hedged the corn price risk from cattle and now you're really trading cattle. You've also hedged the USD risk out too - as both futures are denominated in USD:
Short Cattle is short cows and short USD Long Grain is long grain and long USD
Therefore:
USD cancels out, you don't care how the dollar moves to other currencies (yay infinite money printer), and your two trades are a lot more pure.
SPAN works by scanning your portfolio and applying various ever-changing offsets they base on current correlations.
You can't do this on TIMS outside say VTI vs VOO... SPY vs TLT is a NO. which brings me to...

A Confession

So - when I joined in Discord over a year ago I let everyone know that my margin blowup posts was fake, it never happened. I left a ton of clues which only TWO people ever picked up on and PMed me about:
First Post
Second Post
Blowup Post
The clues were:
  1. TDA Live PM never had -8% +6% risk array rules for SPX/TMF/UPRO at the time
  2. TDA PM had PNR at the time, I would have been PNR locked even with the correlation offsets! LOL!
  3. Portfolio Margin USED to have the same correlation offsets as SPAN did! It was in the PM Pilot Program. For good reasons they took it out. Yes, you USED to be able to offset UPRO and TMF (or SPY/TLT, etc) via correlations, how it used to work was it beta weighted any two ETFs or stocks and gave you insane leverage if they were uncorrelated or inversely correlated (or insane leverage for long/short portfolios for correlated products - ie long NVDA and short AMD). People blew up hard in the pilot program and the SEC took it out in 2006.
  4. PM margin calls are never 5 days - they are three business days AT MOST, and you REALLY should meet them same business day! (It's really helpful to be on the good side of risk management btw - I get a lot of leeway because I take my IRL trading seriously. They are your friends, not your enemy!)
  5. Which risk manager in the world would let ANY client turn a $454k debt/loss to keep invested until it was a $1m loss?!? (Well I might if my client was Buffet!)
Ironically TOS's Paper Trading Portfolio Margin still uses the pilot program rules! They never updated it!

Leveraged ETFs and PM

I originally wrote the blowup post out of anger as at the time TDA decided to make UPRO & TMF have a house margin of 90% on portfolio margin which is ridiculous. How LETFs are supposed to work is they multiply the risk array by the leverage factor. If SPY is 15% up and down, UPRO should be 45% up and down tests, basically instead of 15% BPu, it will be 45% BPu. Some reason TDA decided "LETFs were not suitable to hold for long terms" and ramp up house margin - on something that moves exactly like 3x spy in one day. Sure a year from now you could have a wasteland of a portfolio due to volatility decay - but I debate holding 3x leverage raw without resetting the leverage is going to do more to destroy a portfolio than holding UPRO.
Fortunately IBKR does the correct BPu calculations for UPRO and TMF.
So for PM outside of TD Ameritrade - BPu is the leverage factor times the underlying index the LETF tracks. Go crazy investing in LETFs outside of TD Ameritrade!

Day-Trading with PM

You can daytrade on PM at most brokers that offer realtime monitoring (TDA, Lightspeed,etc) up to 6.66x. Lime offers 8x intraday margin for $5m+ for daytrading on PM. Lightspeed offers up to 12x.
That is taking on a $60m position intraday with $5m. If you're amazing at day-trading - portfolio margin unlocks some serious leverage.

Gotchas with Portfolio Margin

The first thing to realize with portfolio margin is your BP usage is not static. It is real time, dynamically calculated every second stress testing all your positions. That means your $0 bp backratio trade on 30 dte might not be BP free at 20 dte! Likewise if you forget about your short calendar spread and the nearer month long expires off - hello naked short margin.
Also remember that you can easily oversize your account on PM. You can have too many beta-weighted deltas to SPY. In my most recent margin call I didn't realize I had 4x deltas to SPY in put options... that were still far out of the money and could easily explode to 5x more delta thanks to their repricing effects! If you're going to be trading short naked options on PM you must know how to beta weight your portfolio for delta, vega, and gamma, and realize what that means to SPY's movements, and not only know how to do it - but keep up with it every day. Same goes for beta testing your portfolio and obeying all other house margin rules (SUT, etc.)
Here are other oddities I've noticed with Thinkorswim Portfolio Margin:
Remember, at the end of the day portfolio margin really rewards well hedged positions. Adding on risk will quickly punt you back to reg-t effective levels if it starts moving against you.

Asset Protection Strategies With PM

I'm not a lawyer, and neither is Robert Green of Green Trader Tax, but Green has an asset protection suggestion:
If you want asset protection, consider a single-member LLC (SMLLC) taxed as a “disregarded entity.” That’s a “tax nothing” in the eyes of the IRS. You still file as a TTS sole proprietor on Schedule C.
A TTS trader might hire employees, lease an office, co-locate automated trading equipment with a broker, and use massive leverage. These traders should consider liability protection using an SMLLC. Consult an attorney.
In other articles on his website Green suggests to form your LLC in your home state to maximize asset protection strategies. Brokers tend to not require a require a personal guarantee for Portfolio Margin.

History of Portfolio Margin

Portfolio Margin has existed since 1986 - for self clearing member firms that had at least $5 million. This is why Lightspeed gives you raw TIMS margin at $5 million+:
No additional 20% of exchange mandated portfolio margin requirement (TIMS plus House add-ons).
Then in 1993 TIMS margin (Portfolio Margin) became available to Floor Brokers and Floor Traders under the 1993 SEC Net Capital Rules Admendment for floor brokers/traders that had at least $100k. That's right, if you have a time machine, print off my guide and go make some serious money getting insane margin relief from options trading.
2005 - Customer Portfolio Margin began as a pilot program.
2006 - SEC approved Portfolio Margin for retail
2007 - Thinkorswim started offering Portfolio Margin

Mini-Prime Brokerage Services

I wanted to talk a bit more about why there are are limited retail brokers offering customer-retail portfolio margin. I've finally got the right nomenclature down to search for better portfolio margin offerings. The OG Prime Brokerages - Goldman Sachs, JPM, etc., require huge minimums well past $1m/$10m if you want to directly prime with them, making getting a prime brokerage account unfeasible for most of us, and the previous list of prime brokers really small.
What you want to look for is known as mini-primes. These people are introducing brokers that carry smaller prime accounts ($500k-$1m), and combine several accounts to meet the much larger than legal requirements to prime with Goldman, JPM, etc. There are so many more people offering mini-prime services than I could ever imagine.
I want to expand on the legal requirements on how you can get a prime account with PM margin relief:
https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mr-noaction/pbroker012594-out.pdf
$100k+ Investment Adviser
Here is a potential loophole I found. Some people told me I should get a financial advisor. I felt so insulted by it as my trading has been averaging well above market for years now. Turns out the man running best performing hedge fund in the world (Renaissance Technologies) - Jim Simons has a financial advisor.
That’s right. The man whose hedge fund generated 66% average annual returns, the man whose fund took $100 billion out of the market, asked if it was a good idea to be shorting stocks at the absolute bottom. Just unbelievable.
So, while it's amazing that Simons had a financial advisor stop him from emotionally trading - I wonder if Simons had a financial advisor for another reason: To get prime services originally at $100k!
Previously RenTech has gotten in trouble for banks creating basket-option accounts and handing over the username-passwords to RenTech traders to trade in. It's possible Simons found an advisor to prime for $100k instead of $500k. :)
So you might be able to find a financial advisor that will "manage" your account but still let you do the manual trading inside the account!
Cross-guarantee
A Cross-Guarantee is the only other way to be able to have a prime brokerage account for less than $500k (still $100k minimum.) You can pool your money with others in a partnership-like entity structure to access a prime broker. You can all pool it in one giant account, or have a 500k+ master account cross-guarantee $100k+ sub accounts. See a good prime-brokerage securities lawyer!

Mini-Prime Requirements

Then mini-primes have a lot more flexibility. Large banks might require $200k+ of commissioned revenue/clearing fees/etc to be interested in priming with you directly. A mini prime like StoneX only requires $40k per year. A bank can take 1 month to 6 months to get set up with an account. StoneX - 2 weeks.
Minimum PB revenue of 40k per year
$40k/year in commissions isn't much - its $3,330/month. My annualized commissions on $175k NLV doing the "lottos" options trading strategy was $30k! I'm now 230k and I'm close to meeting their minimum revenue per year well below most prime's minimum sizes!

Prime-Broker Short Selling

With a prime broker account you can sign custom lending agreements where you can get partial to full use of the short sale proceeds! That's right, you can find lenders that will allow you to NOT segregate short-sale proceeds and you can then use it to buy stocks!

Networking is a huge edge

Finally, I really love that StoneX is open and transparent about their requirements and benefits. The last thing they offer is this:
Industry event invites Yes
Networking, networking is huge. Do you think TDA would invite you to an industry event? Naw, they're happy to pocket my $39k/year commissions I'm currently generating for them.
My biggest edge in trading isn't strategy specific (lottos, etc), it's networking. Every trading edge I've discovered it's died in 6 months or so. Being able to talk with my network of trading friends, venture capital contacts, etc., has allowed me to have more trading ideas than I have capital for, so when one edge dies I can jump to the next edge immediately if it still exists.
I wouldn't have made back all my HFEA losses if it wasn't for networking with this subreddit and discord, which is why I continue to write extensive detailed guides to give back to the community. <3
At the end of the day the various edges I've found are a result of market participants, and being flexible and knowing what the market is doing helps identify possible new fundamental advantages/edges.

Broker-Dealer (BD) Risk-Based Haircuts (PM for BDs, $100k+)

BD margin is known as Risk Based Haircuts, link below.
Broker-Dealers who are not clearing/market makers: Raw TIMS: +/- 15% for equities, narrow-based indexes, non-high cap indexes. +- 10% for high cap index, +-6% for major forex, +-20% for all other currencies.
Non-Clearing Specialists/Market Makers: +6/-8% for high cap indexes, +/-10% for non-high cap indexes, +-4.5% for major forex.
For any BD: $0.25 per share min margin ($25 per contract) (remember retail is 0.375!) 95% high-cap-diverse-index correlation offset instead of the 90% retail gets for indexes, and 92.5% for non-high-cap-diverse index (retail only gets ~70%).
Then like the above prime-broker accounts, you can pool money to meet various broker-dealer net-capital requirements! It is known as a Joint Back Office Arrangement. Every partner in a JBO needs to be a registered and licensed broker-dealer with different securities licenses depending on your home state. (Series 23/24, Series 7, Series 56, and so on!) JBOs these days have became less popular with the proliferation of customer portfolio margin, so for most people these days forming a JBO is limited to Prop Firms that want to mark up commissions or trade against their traders (modern legal-bucket shops) and legit prop firms that want to act as Market-Makers/High Frequency Traders that need to directly connect to an equities or equities-option exchange, as exchange rules require you to be licensed.
Option Market Makers don't require a locate to hedge bonafide option trades. Since 2008 the SEC removed their close-out exemption in Reg-SHO, so they HAVE to deliver by settlement.

Various Customer-Portfolio Margin Brokerages ($100k+ requirement)

If you know of any brokerages that offer customer-PM let me know and I'll add it to the list here!

Prime / Mini-Prime Brokers List ($500k+, or $100k+ w/ advisocross-guarantee)

If you have any more prime/mini-prime offerings, please let me know!

Sources

FINRA Portfolio Margin FAQ
FINRA Net Capital Rules
Risk Based Haircuts
The Margin Investor
SEC 1994 Prime Broker Regulations
Joint Back Office Arrangements

TL;DR

Portfolio Margin is a risk based margin system that greatly juices leveraged margin strategies to 6.6x raw delta 1.0 leverage, and insane levels for options.
Portfolio Margin allows you to sell naked far OTM options that only take $37.50 per contract on margin, while Reg-T would require $2005 margin for a $100 stock.
$5 / $37.50 bp = 13.333% return on capital.
Any option that is 15% out the money or more gets maximum buying power compared to Reg-T.
Spread the love on as many positions as possible on PM! Use innovative hedges that don't margin well with Reg-T accounts. Try new strategies that are only realistically executed in a portfolio margined account!
submitted by Adderalin to test [link] [comments]

2023.04.11 17:54 larki18 [REMIX, DEC 2008] Dave: "I tried a bunch of solos when we were making Neon Tiger, and then Ronnie had the idea of keeping them all. It was just a big pile of guitars, but once Stuart got hold of them, he made them sound totally different from how they started out, so they really fit together."

Brandon Flowers jumps to his feet again and hits the volume on the nearby flat screen. "That's it - he's having him for lunch," he marvels, his dark eyes fixed on the two figures duking it out in front of 40,000 rabid fans. "I feel bad for the kid. He's young and he'll get another shot, but he's gotta be scared to death to be out there now."
Boxing match? Mixed martial-arts smackdown? Not even close. We're watching the men's final of the U.S. Open, where Roger Federer is giving the young Scot upstart Andy Murray a thorough shellacking. At first it seems a little weird that Flowers, frontman for one of the biggest rock bands in America, would even give professional tennis the time of day. But then it sinks in: The Killers share their hometown with Andre Agassi, a living legend of the game. Maybe Las Vegas isn't just about casinos, cowboys and crime scenes after all.
There's certainly more than meets the eye to the band's latest album. Whereas their 2006 sophomore outing, Sam's Town, produced by Flood with Alan Moulder, transmuted the synth-pop bluster and rock star potential of Flowers and his bandmates - guitarist Dave Keuning, bassist Mark Stoermer and drummer Ronnie Vannucci - into an epic slab of sonic hugeness worthy of the Next Big Thing, Day & Age (Island, 2008) actually manages to expand the scope even further. It comes through in the galactic synth and guitar washes of "Spaceman," the throwback glam-funk beat that drives "Losing Touch," or the left-field harp and Caribbean steel drums (that's right: steel drums) that spice up the Bowie-esque "I Can't Stay." Simply put, The Killers have tapped a way-out rebel seam - a devil-may-care vibe - that has a lot to do, no doubt, with the thrill of recording for the first time in their new Battle Born Studios.
To be sure, it's a buzz that can only get better when you have London-based producer Stuart Price riding the faders and tweaking the LFOs. Known for his marquee work with pop royalty (Madonna, Seal, New Order), but also in particular for his own indie projects (Zoot Woman, Les Rythmes Digitales) and a spate of sharp remixes he's churned out over the years under his Thin White Duke alias, Price brings a mind-stretching, almost psychedelic ear to Day & Age. He loves his vintage synthesizers, compressors and outboard units, and has become a wizard at old-school recording techniques like re-amping and miking a room for natural reverb, but he's also equally attached to his computer.
"I don't think there's really any right or wrong in terms of whether you record an album wholly analog or wholly digital," Price says, pointing out that even though he now has regular access to a high-end mecca like Olympic Studios in London (where Jimi Hendrix, the Rolling Stones, Led Zeppelin and Queen once recorded - and where Day & Age was finished and mixed), he's always been a bedroom producer at heart. "You have to pick and choose what's right at the time, but I think for this album, we got a really good blend of stuff that happened in the real world and in the digital world."

FREQUENT FLYERS

It all started last year with a tour stop in London. At the time, Price was finishing mixes of "Sweet Talk," a song that he'd taken up after the band's enthusiastic response to his Thin White Duke remix of "Mr. Brightside" from The Killers' 2004 Island debut, Hot Fuss. ("Sweet Talk" had its genesis in the Sam's Town sessions but ended up on the band's B-sides collection Sawdust [2007].)
"One night we had dinner with Stuart," Flowers recalls, "and we didn't know if he was gonna do our next album or not, but I had a 4-track with me that I told him was like a mix of Pet Shop Boys and Johnny Cash. So I asked him, 'What are you doing later?' And the next thing I knew, me and Dave were back at his house recording tracks."
These were the earliest takes of "Human," an uptempo dancefloor anthem and the first single from Day & Age. The song gradually took shape as Price and the band, both working separately in Logic, continued to send new demo versions back and forth online via Apple iDisk while the band was on tour - an approach that worked so well, they applied it to the bulk of the songs that made the album. "It was like Christmas, checking your e-mail to see if he'd sent something back," Flowers says. [Laughs.] "We'd never worked on preproduction like that before, so it was exciting."
At his home studio (dubbed "50" for the street address where he lives), Price would often access his bank of vintage synths - including a Moog Polymoog, Korg MS-20, Roland SH-09 and a rare Rhodes Chroma - to add textures to a demo track or to supplement the Clavia Nord Lead 3 that Flowers uses as his main synth. "Brandon might say, 'I really like the lushness of this sound,' but he'd want to expand on it," Price explains. "So I might work out a sound on one of the analog synths here and then send it back. Later on, when we finally got in the studio, I actually took a lot of my synths over with me."
Price and the band spent six weeks at Battle Born, where they chose from more than 30 different demos and began fleshing out basic tracks for the album. Working on a new API 1608 console with Logic 8, an Apogee Symphony interface and a UAD-2 card (an early version sent to the band by Universal Audio), Price found that the relatively stripped-down setup was a blessing in disguise.
"One of the best things about the API is that we were limited to 16 channels for recording," Price says. "These days, if I'm mixing or remixing something, I constantly see 32 tracks of drums, for example, and with that amount of mics, you start going, 'Hang on a minute - is this really the essence of the drum sound we want or are we just getting limitless options?' So we recorded the drums very simply, with Earthworks mics on a lot of the kit and some of the usual suspects like [Sennheiser] 421s in the room, but it was very limited because we had this small-format mixer."

AN INSTRUMENTAL EXISTENCE

Drum sounds, in fact, were subject to a lot of experimentation on Day & Age, although Price and the band also came up with ways of tweaking the sound of just about every instrument on the album (including even Tommy Marth's saxophone on such tracks as "Losing Touch," where the horn gets re-amped and squeezed through a chain of distortion and compression in the song's tail-out section).
As Vannucci describes it, the overall low-end presence of the rhythm section was often a matter of sonically damping the kit, layering drums or trying new signal paths. "We did some cool stuff on 'Human,'" he explains, "where I was playing a little bebop kit in the isolation booth where we record the guitar amps. I had an 18-inch bass drum, a 12-inch tom-tom, a 14-inch floor tom with a T-shirt over it and one really old, dry cymbal. We also ran the snare through an old Simmons SDS-5 module. If you listen to it, the snare is changing from time to time - one track is the Simmons module and the other track is just a deep, solid mahogany snare that's tuned really low with a diaper on it. We wanted the drums to sound almost programmed, but I'm also playing accents on the hi-hat to make it sound more human."
True to its title, "Spaceman" is another vehicle for the band to mess with the overall sound after the fact. In the song's tripped-out breakdown section, the kick drum becomes a star going nova, with Vannucci stacking on a huge bass drum that he played marching-band style with a yarn mallet. The drum was recorded through a high-end Soundelux 251 microphone and subjected to a wash of custom-designed reverb.
"A lot of the reverbs in that section were made using Space Designer in Logic," Price explains. "I used to have an Akai S1100 sampler, which had this really good reverb preset on it called Cavernous. I always missed that sound, so I recorded some impulses through Space Designer, but what I didn't realize was that I accidentally had a Yamaha SPX-90 chorus stuck on the mixer, so the impulses got recorded with this chorus effect on it. But that ended up giving them this great swirling effect, which created a lot of that revolving panorama in the song."
Stoermer also opted to try something new on bass, switching from his main Fender Jazz bass (a Geddy Lee model, no less) to a Hofner semi-acoustic bass, which tends to have a much rounder, plunkier tone that takes up the lower registers. "It sometimes blends in with the kick, so it totally changes the texture and gives it a lot more low end," he says. "There are other songs on the album, like 'Losing Touch,' where I think I even popped on it, which I wouldn't do normally because it might stand out too much, but on the Hofner it's kind of subtle. It's percussive and the notes are shorter, but it still has some kind of sub-tone to it that's not necessarily there on other basses, maybe because it's hollow."
Of course, with the rhythm section breathing as one, this left plenty of room for Keuning to stretch out on guitar. For the first time on a Killers album, he plays a nylon acoustic guitar (on "I Can't Stay"), and he layers multiple takes on "Neon Tiger," which stomps with Beatles-like bombast. "I tried a bunch of solos when we were making the demo for that," Keuning says, "and then Ronnie had the idea of keeping them all. It was just a big pile of guitars, but once Stuart got hold of them, he made them sound totally different from how they started out, so they really fit together." This often meant close-miking Keuning's amps in a very small iso booth using a Shure SM57 with a Coles ribbon mic, which was stacked on top of the 57 and facing in the opposite direction for a slight phase differential.

CHANCE ENCOUNTERS

Stuart Price has made a career out of trying just about anything in the studio - a philosophy that meshes 0with The Killers' no-holds-barred attitude when it comes to songwriting. Whether he was programming synths or excessively re-amping and tweaking tracks at Olympic Studios [see sidebar "In the House of the Holy"], Price left himself open to any idea, especially if it was accidental.
"I've always found it to be like that," he says. "I don't want to say all music is mistakes, but I think a lot of exciting music comes from your mistakes because you weren't thinking too much about it. It might be programming a synth or recording a guitar - you may not get what you're looking for at first, but eventually you'll get something that excites you in a different way."
Flowers agrees, taking "Neon Tiger" as a prime instance of The Killers grabbing a little more freedom. "We're never really trying to sound like anyone," he insists, "and even though that song was really adventurous for us, we kept the pop side of it. You mentioned the Beatles, and that's what I love about them. Even at their most experimental, there was something catchy that your mom could sing along to, and that's something that gets lost when most people experiment. They get too much credit for just fucking around. I think going for weird, unexpected things just comes naturally to us."

Name Your Price

Stuart Price's 50 Studio might be economical in terms of space, but as far as the sound is concerned, he spares no expense, with exotic analog synths being one of his specialties.
Computer, DAW, recording hardware, mixer
Apogee Symphony conversion system
Apple Power Mac G5 Dual 2.8 GHz computerrunning Logic Pro 8
Lucid AD9624 converter and GENx6 clock
Neve Melbourne 12-channel mixing desk withNeve 33129 modules
Universal Audio UAD-2 DSP card
Mics, preamps, EQs, compressors, effects
Alan Smart C2 compressor
API 3124 mic preamp
Avalon U5 instrument DI,Vt-737sp mic preamp/compressoEQ
Drawmer LX20 compressor
Eventide Eclipse effects processor
GBS spring reverb
GML 8200 parametric EQ
Neumann M 149 mics
Neve 1084 mic preamp/EQ
Shure SM55, 57 and 58 mics
Urei 1176 limitecompressor
Synthesizers, drum machines, modules
Korg MS-20 synth, SQ-10 sequencer,EX-8000 module
Moog Polymoog
Rhodes Chroma
Roland SH-09 and TR-909 drum machine
Simmons SDS-5 drum modules
Yamaha DX7s and TX7 (rack module)
Monitors
Dynaudio M1s powered by Bryston amps
Genelec 1031s
Neve built-in console speaker

In the House of the Holy

There's a sense of the majestic that seems to permeate the walls of Studio One at Olympic Studios in London, and that's not just because of the massive live room with 30-foot adjustable ceiling, the meticulously tuned Steinway concert grand or the state-of-the-art SSL XL 9000K mixing desk. The legends of rock have tread heavily here; it's where Jimi Hendrix recorded all of his 1967 classic Are You Experienced? and where Led Zeppelin made its explosive debut in 1969 with engineer Glyn Johns.
It's also where The Killers spent three weeks doing final tracking and mixing for Day & Age. The live room's changeable acoustics were especially useful, whether for recording the Graceland-like backing vocals that open the epic "This Is Your Life" (with all four bandmembers singing 10 feet away from a pair of Neumann U 87s) or for capturing natural reverb by throwing tracks into the room through a high-end Tannoy speaker. "I'd have a mic pointing away from it to capture as much of the reflection of the room as possible," Stuart Price explains. "I would just leave that on an aux send and use it as one of the main vocal reverbs in mixdown."
A 20W Fender practice amp, owned by the studio's receptionist, also came in handy for strategic re-amping. "That was always set up in the corner with a U 47 on it," Price says. "That was also running off an aux send, cranked and distorted to hell, but we would run stuff through it from track to track in strange combinations just to see what would happen. You never had any idea what the result would be like, but it was always something interesting."
submitted by larki18 to TheKillers [link] [comments]

2023.03.27 00:09 MsVxxen TRADE TALK TODAY: 03/26/2023

TRADE TALK TODAY: 03/26/2023
This is a run at the mouth trade diary, little bit of everything-as I get time to post while trading:
If you are new here (welcome welcome), all the primary 'how to' & explanatory material is located here:
https://www.reddit.com/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
2:05pm pst: Grinding sideways-ish (was -57.3% on 03/20/2023). This real $ index began at $3000 on 04/07/2022 (pre Luna Crash), and is down to 42.4% (to $1273.) of its original value at present. (A HODLR's nightmare, er investment plan, that.)
Note to self, left in lipstick on my mirror:
I expect crypto to be a slow grind sideways to down from here into the Monday open...US Futures will open shortly (T minus 53 minutes), and I expect some movement there.
The weekend has been fairly calm thus far, I don't think that will change today much.
Pay attention to the ATOM canary, it has been singing the songs that have gotten followed fairly well*-it is rally fading here, (see 3 Coin Chart).*
I am 0% long, and 100% short here, 70% dry powder.
Primary targets:
BTC (long), ETH (short), FIL(short), MATIC (short), SOL (short), LTC (short)
The BTC long call from pattern A5 (see BTC Watch Chart below), completed after the SVB News Blip interruption. Takeaway: newz blips oft delay/derail pattern completion, but the underlying macro forces that put that pattern into place over time do not just wash away easily.
Keep an eye on Pattern A6 on the BTC Watch Chart....to date that pattern has resulted in near term drops 5 out of 6 times (>83%). As a recent Ditch Poster noted, the 1hr TV Trade Patterns have a lot more down votes than up. We have been on the rally end of the stick all year . . .
Chasing the newz can and will and does chop scalpers & swing traders up, (never Hodlrs, as waiting is their core "strength" in these environs). Though I do berate the Hodling thesis, there are attributes (patience) which are solid as stone. Patience wins races, FOMO simply does not.
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US MARKETS:
3:06pm pst: US Futures opened up, and crypto has correlated to that pop.
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CHECKING IN ON THE TEA LEAVES:
The Canary here is the Trannys-and that bird has been ever dying.....
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A WORD TO THE BIRD FROM THE USUAL 5 SUSPECTS:
TIPS:
2:33pm pst: TIPS Reversed and becoming more constructive still
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RELATIONSHIPS:
2:35pm pst: Jaw gaps now open (again)-and \"must\" close (again).
BTC price divergent to RSI for like "forever". Then all of a sudden SKYNET runs the pumps out of nowhere, creates and holds another overbought setup.....just now beginning to tire. All this almost synchronized to the USDC epic 13% high speed depeg. Sorry gang, not buying this as the banks go ba-ba boom! ;/
Check that Double Top....TV didn't pick it up, but EWT here is suggesting we get a motive way move into the low 25k zone on BTC. (That is my view in DDT TA, and the ATOM Canary SO agrees-see chart next.):
EWT Fib extension on (c) calling into the 25's here.
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3 COIN MACRO:
2:43pm pst: ATOM Canary Screaming A General Decline here.
===================== The gap to ATOM is HUGE. This "will not" last.
I believe we will begin to close the gap, mainly by way of BTC/ETH fall-this coming week.
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BTC WATCH:
2:44pm pst
Pattern A6 is a down pattern, given that the 6 times it appeared in A-A5, all resulted in declines, except 1, (ie: 83% probability displayed for this topping pattern). Add ATOM Canary song to that, and the curious pump after USDC depegged.....and that is a lot of down vote content here.
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CORRELATIONS:
12:50pm pst: cohesive in RIA & RINA events
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Good Luck!
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CHECKING IN ON SKYNET PROGRAMMING:
https://preview.redd.it/lviwt9dfs5qa1.png?width=841&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f506933518a7e44c70adb2211a6cf10c1e608dc
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Good Luck!
=====================================> UPDATES:
Processing img uwa477egzjpa1...
Uncorrelated? No. Correlations exist, they have just been far weaker in 2023 on average.
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Processing img 7o3nkd7zzjpa1...
Answer: yes. That is what bubbles do. This is a bubble.
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Processing img qq5su0vkyjpa1...
Now THAT is just HUGE, and very very fluid.
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Is there something in the water?
TAILWIND$!?
TAILWIND$!
HEADWIND$!
TAILWIND$!
​
submitted by MsVxxen to DorothysDirtyDitch [link] [comments]

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