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Finishing up our first month of positional draft rankings, we close the chapter on trench warriors with the interior D-line. This group includes all players on the defensive side of the ball lining up anywhere from a zero- to a four-/five-technique depending on your labelling, although it’s rare to find such a clearly defined alignment roles these days. Just for clarification on how I will reference them:
0 = head-up on the center, 1 or shade = shoulder of the center, 2i = inside shoulder of the guard, 2 = head-up on the guard, 3 = outside shoulder of the guard, 4i = inside shoulder of the tackle, 4/5 = head-up on the tackle
This is a group that includes two incredible prospects worthy of top-20 selections and between five and seven other names that should go on day two. You can find useful players after that, but there is certainly a drop-off and you’re looking at role players or unrefined projects.
Let’s get into the list now:
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1. Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

6’2”, 285 pounds; RS JR
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Just outside the top-1000 overall recruits of 2020, Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton enrolled in 2020 and saw some action as a backup year one, but entered the starting lineup as a sophomore. Last season he racked up 61 tackles, 14 of those for loss, 5.5 sacks, three passes batted down and two fumbles recovered, which earned him first-team All-Big Ten and second-team All-American accolades. This past season he improved to first-team All-American and was named the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year, despite to his numbers slightly dropping off (52 tackles, 8.5 for loss, sacks, two PBUs, a fumble forced and recovered each.
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~Run defense:~

• Improved massively from his freshman season (611 snaps) to year two, going from a 57.7 PFF grade to 91.0, which ranked behind only Jalen Carter and Calijah Kancey in 2022 and made him the most valuable Power Five interior defensive lineman according to PFF’s “wins above average” metric
• This guy’s a bowling ball of butcher knives, who constantly seems to be disrupting plays as a presence in the offensive backfield
• Super effective at slicing through lanes in the zone run game to shut down the front-side
• You see like one stupid back-door play on a guard that has the running back cut all the way back every week it seems like
• When he can’t get to the play-side shoulder of linemen chasing the ball from behind, Newton makes sure to apply force under their arm pit and ride them down the line, whilst staying ready for the ball-carrier on potential cut-backs
• Has some snaps where he recognizes he’s being pinned down and the guy across from him pulls out to the corner, yet Newton is able to go over the top in order to funnel the ball-carrier back inside
• Has the power and knack for pulling blockers off himself and show up in the gap when the ball arrives there
• Finished just one run stop short of the top mark (30) among Power Five interior D-linemen in 2022 and then four short of it (25) this past season

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~Pass-rush:~

• If he can just get up the field as a three-technique, his ability to burst through the gap and angle towards the quarterback in designated passing situations made him nearly impossible for college guards to handle – had two big sacks against Wisconsin that way in 2023 (one taken off by penalty)
• Packs a quick two-handed downward-swipe directly into the rip-through in order to get past the hip of the blocker, often paired with a little stutter to beat guards cleanly off the line
• Showcases a fluid club-swim combo to step past the hip of guards and corner his rush towards the passer, even as he has to drive through contact with blockers being able to recover
• Recognizes when guards overset on him and has the lateral quicks to cross-face them in a hurry
• Is constantly looking for secondary wins and how to impact pass plays, by batting down passes or cutting off angles for the quarterback
• Pulls linemen aside like they’re nothing a few times per game as he recognizes the offense is running play-action or someone’s just leaning into him
• The ability to stick his foot in the ground curve around as the looper on games up front is pretty scary for a guy of approximately 300 pounds
• Flashes some eye-opening chase speed when he pursues quarterback out to the sideline
• His 102 total QB pressures over the past two seasons are ten more than any other interior D-linemen across that stretch

~Weaknesses:~

• On the shorter end of NFL interior defensive linemen, with his 76-inch wingspan putting him in the sixth percentile, giving him less room for error
• Would benefit from striking with his hands to take control of the line of scrimmage early on against down-blocks before really tracking the backfield action
• At times appears to be oblivious to angular blockers and allow himself to get washed down the line
• Has room to become more precise and effective with chopping/swatting down the near-hand of pass-protectors, as well as being more pro-active with his counters

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If Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu is the most overthought prospect in this draft, Newton is kind of the forgotten man, yet I have both as my top names for their respective positions at a time where it seems other guys have surpassed those two on consensus rankings. Calijah Kancey was a top-20 pick for the Buccaneers last year and while Newton isn’t quite explosive off the ball, I think he’s a better all-around player. Now, he does also come in with some length concerns and if he’s asked to stack-and-shed blockers more regularly for his future team, he’ll need to become better with reacting to pressure points and setting the tone on contact with his hands. However, I would love how he projects into a traditional three-technique role for an even front team, I think he gives you alignment versatility – particularly in defined dropback situations – and what separates from a lot of these disruption-style players we see at the position is that if he connects with his hand combats, he links those with his hips in order to actually step through and create a path towards the ball for himself. To me, Johnny is a top-15 player in this draft.
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2. Byron Murphy II, Texas

6’1”, 300 pounds; JR
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One of the top-500 overall recruits in 2021, due to the crazy depth of the Texas D-line, Murphy started only two of 25 games played over his first two years with the Longhorns, recording 41 total tackles, 6.5 of those for loss and three sacks. This past season he cracked the lineup and made first-team All-Big 12 as well as second-team All-American, thanks to putting up career-highs across the board (29 tackles, 8.5 for loss and five sacks). The Big-12 also got a little sneaky, when they named Murphy the conference’s Defensive Lineman of the Year, even though his teammate T’Vondre Sweat received the DPOY award.
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~Run defense:~

• Stout run-defender, who plays uncommonly low and regularly demands both offensive linemen on combos to stay firm on him, which allows the linebacker to work around freely
• Capable of lining up at the nose and anchoring against the angular element of combo-blocks
• Has an uncanny feel for where pressure is being applied and how counter it – There are snaps where he doesn’t move one inch while his knee towards the second man is hovering barely over the ground
• Showcases highly impressive lateral agility to counter zone concepts, where he doesn’t only maintain leverage on the gap, but actually gets his hands onto the next lineman who may try to provide a help-hand on the front-side
• The short-area quicks to back-door blockers or execute run stunts pops a couple of times in every game
• Asking a center to down-block on him when pulling a guard across the formation is pretty much off the table, because he sticks to the hip of that guy and often ends up bumping him into the ball-carrier in the offensive backfield
• Murphy’s sudden hands regularly cause issues, as he side-steps linemen and steps past their hip, initiating first contact with ball-carriers at the line of scrimmage that way regularly
• His 83.9 run-defense grade in 2022 was a top-ten mark among Power Five interior defensive linemen and he actually had three extra stops (21) on the same amount of such snaps basically

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~Pass-rush:~

• His height gives Murphy a natural leverage advantage already, but paired with his explosion off the ball and his ability to keep his upper body parallel to the ground basically makes him almost impossible to slow down when he just attacks up the field
• Packs a violent club-rip move, including cross-face maneuvers, and fights hard through the reach of interior pass-protectors
• Recognizes when linemen lean too far into him, rapidly yanking them forward and pulling his arm over to get by them
• Has the flexibility and strength in his ankles to corner his rushes working on the outside shoulder of guards or tackles
• When the O-line slides his direction or a tackle sets out to him rushing off the edge and Murphy attacks the other way, the guy responsible for him typically has to get into catch-up mode and try to take him enough off track, with the force he blows by them with initially
• Capable of drawing multiple bodies with him as he slants across gaps and attempts to open up a lane for one of his teammates to loop over the top of
• Murphy’s ability to suddenly disengage from blocks and then chase down scrambling quarterbacks really stands out
• His 14.8% pass-rush win rate in 2022 put him just outside the top-ten of the interior D-line group and while he “only” had five sacks last season, PFF had him with the highest pass-rush productivity (9.6) among the position (with at least 100 rush snaps)
• You see him turn his head and chase down screen passes 10+ yards down the field on multiple occasions

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~Weaknesses:~

• Will get a little undisciplined with his run fits and attack too far upfield or across blockers, to open up bigger lanes than they should otherwise be
• There’s room for improvement with how quickly he transitions from run-defense to disengaging from blocks and rushing the passer
• You love the ability to torpedo up a gap in passing situations, but you do see him end up on the turf quite regularly and blockers be able to push him down because of it
• Needs to start incorporating counter moves when he wins off the line but then doesn’t punish blockers as they try to recover and get loose with their footwork

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Murphy offers a rare blend of leverage, explosiveness, quicks and strength. He can pretty much fit in any type of front and become a difference-maker with the versatility to move around throughout games. Having said that, because the Longhorn coaches took advantage of that diverse skill-set, he has some development to do in order to realize his potential one day. Being able to recognize plays before he’s charged into opponents, playing under a little more control and countering the techniques of blockers are all necessary if he wants to be a legit “play-maker” instead of just a disruptor. Yet, you’re not going to find many guys who can penetrate as a three-technique or anchor against double-teams as a nose-tackle, before either side-stepping or going straight through a 330-pound guard on thirds pretty much equally well. And then he backed up that up with elite testing and a tremendous positional workout at the combine. You may not want to put too much on his plate right away, but Murphy has the potential to end up being the best defensive player from this entire draft. He should go off the board at some point in the teens.
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3. Kris Jenkins Jr., Michigan

6’3”, 275 pounds; SR
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A three-star recruit in 2020, the son of Jets All-Pro defensive tackle Kris Jenkins, Junior appeared in just one game as a true freshman. He played in all 14 and started four games the following season, recording 22 tackles but zero sacks. In year three, his numbers jumped up to 54 total stops, 3.5 of those for loss and two sacks. While his overall tackles were down a little bit this past season (37), he did slightly better his TFLs (4.5) and sacks (2.5), while snatching his first interception and scooping up a fumble, which he was recognized as a second-team All-Big choice for.
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~Run defense:~

• Comes out of his stance low and ready to strike with his hands against the run – Regularly you see guards take a couple of small steps backwards as contact is initiated
• When allowed to shoot his gap, he’s quick off the ball and ready to take control of plays instead of allowing blockers to dictate terms to him, shutting off the front-side frequently as a 3/4i
• Regularly is able to stay square against lateral run concepts and then fall back by one gap to hold up the running back
• Against double-teams, he packs a potent corkscrew technique to squeeze through the squeeze between the two linemen
• Highly active to work off blocks with a potent arm-over and track down the ball-carrier rather than getting hung up in traffic
• You better not give this guy an opening as a linemen has to get in front of him after bucket-stepping, with no initial bump by anybody, as well as make sure he’s secured before somebody peels off combos, because he’ll otherwise chase down the ball
• Actively closes the distance to pullers when initially unblocked and is able to create traffic in the backfield to throw off the timing of plays
• Routinely squeezes bodies into the action and puts some centers on the turf trying to down-block on him
• As a junior, Jenkins’ 31 run-defense stops were tied for the most in the nation among interior defensive linemen (in 2022) and almost one third of his run-defense snaps were categorized as “positive” in PFF’s database, which you get a “neutral” when you just “do your job”, meaningful he was highly impactful at that

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~Pass-rush:~

• Packs some legit bend for an interior rusher
• You see Jenkins dip and rip in order to create an angle towards the quarterback – particularly off play-action – quite regularly
• Capable of cross-facing blockers with great suddenness, especially once his hand-swipes continue to improve to actually win cleanly
• We didn’t see Jenkins just sell out for bull-rushing solo blockers, but his power was on display a few times when he drove back double-teams to squeeze down the pocket
• Really worked on his spin move in 2023, selling that he’ll attack the outside shoulder and then getting to the opposite hip in one fluid motion just as guards lean into him
• Michigan put Jenkins over tackles more often this past season, where he showed the ability to condense the edge by riding tackles into the quarterback with the long-arm or bull-rush
• Looks dynamic sticking his foot in the ground and looping across multiple games, being able to corner his path towards the QB
• The type of style Michigan asked Jenkins to play didn’t lend itself to great production as a pass-rusher, yet he matched his pressure number from 2022 (20) on 75 fewer opportunities (228 pass-rush snaps) last season

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~Weaknesses:~

• Even for a read-and-react Wolverine front, Jenkins appears a tad late off the ball and puts himself in compromised positions at times because of it
• Could do a little better job of mirroring the first step(s) of offensive linemen and not allowing himself to get sealed off or scooped on the backside of wide zone plays
• Wastes too much time with tight-end when lined up at 5-/6-technique, instead of quickly shedding them to make plays
• Doesn’t have a much of a pass-rush portfolio at this point, largely relying on power and not packing any reliable counters he’ll access
• Needs to do a better job of when he does have vertical momentum to keep working through one half of the man and shorten the path towards the quarterback for himself

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This draft is filled with sons of former NFL standout player, but somehow Jenkins Jr. is the one I barely hear being talked about. A big part of that is how he was asked to play by the Wolverine coaches, where he regularly is in a more conservative four-point stance on early downs and doesn’t just get off the ball on purpose, although even for that, I thought he didn’t help himself with that and it affected him even on passing downs to some degree. With that being said, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a more disruptive player if coached that way, considering we did see that quickness he clearly has show up more in 2022. I mean, he was number six on Bruce Feldman’s 2023 Freaks List, because his shuttle and three-cone times at Michigan were up there with any D-tackle coming into the league these past couple of years and only Cowboys first-round pick Mazi Smith (at a good 30 pounds extra), put up a higher mark than Jenkins’ 760 pounds on the combo twist – which tests an athlete’s ability to apply force. Jenkins certainly needs to improve his ability to attack half the man and become a more well-versed pass-rusher, but I think he could be a borderline elite run-stopper by his second season and has the potential to be a legit impact player on third downs, particularly on different games up front.
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4. T'Vondre Sweat, Texas

6’4”, 340 pounds; RS SR
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A top-1000 overall recruit in 2019, Sweat saw limited action as a true freshman with the Longhorns, before becoming a key cog of the rotation up front year two onwards. Across the next three seasons, he combined for 74 total stops, 8.5 of those for loss and two sacks, along with eight PBUs. He openly spoke about his increased investment this past season, which led to career highs across the board (45 total tackles, eight for loss, two sacks and four PBUs), the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year award and first-team All-American recognition.
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~Run defense:~

• This dude is a monster truck, who regularly is first to land his hands onto opponents in the run game
• Has the sturdy frame to not get bumped off his landmarks on down-blocks and giving him a chance to take a couple of steps up the field as the offense pulls someone denies the running back to stay on a tighter track initially
• You see some trap plays, where the puller is really loading up for contact, yet it’s nothing better than a stalemate with Sweat
• Has plenty of plays, where he’s dealing with down-blocks, rips through and circles around those guys in order to get involved with wrapping up the ball-carrier going through the opposite gap
• There are some impressive reps back-dooring centers on zone plays with a quick arm-over and standing there as the back tries to squeeze past or bounce runs
• When he sticks his foot in the ground and pursues the ball down the line, the speed for a man his size to chase down plays is pretty darn impressive
• Re-set the line of scrimmage on the vast majority of snaps in the 2023 Red River Rivalry – Oklahoma’s QB Dillon Gabriel was the only guy to find success rushing
• Only UCLA edge defender Laiatu Latu earned a higher overall PFF grade last season (91.7) and Sweat had the highest run-defense grade among all Power-5 defenders (92.0)

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~Pass-rush:~

• Routinely is able to create that initial momentum and push up the middle of the pocket
• Packs a rapid two-handed downward swipe against interior pass-protectors trying to quick-set him, making them fold over and going right by them at times
• It’s a constant battle for guards and centers trying to re-fit their hands and find ways to set their base in order to keep him occupied when soloed up against Sweat, who swipes those paws off and eventually pulls them aside
• Capable of creating angles towards the quarterback even after allowing blockers to square him up, by lifting their arms upwards and ripping underneath them
• Once he gets to one shoulder of pass-protectors, at best they can take him off track enough to allow the QB to step up usually
• Provides the force to cave in one side of the protection and open up a lane for a looper to get through on games
• Finished tied for eight among interior D-linemen in the draft with 31 total pressures – on less than 300 pass-rush snaps – and added 21 “other pass-rush wins” according to PFF
• Consistently gets those big arms up as he’s closing in on quarterbacks (outside the pocket) in order to force them to put extra arc on passes

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~Weaknesses:~

• Due to his height and center of gravity, Sweat quickly pops up out of his stance and if asked to play extensive snaps, that only gets worse (conditioning will remain a question)
• Angular blockers (on quick combos), who understand how to appropriately apply force to his hip or arm-pit, can get his body turned in the run game after being square in how he’s engaged with somebody else
• Frequently is late to redirect or get into pursuit mode, when the play is going away from him
• Doesn’t give you a whole lot of versatility as a pass-rusher, where he can take advantage of being singled up at times, but he’s not stringing moves together and slips through a crack between blockers, to flush the quarterback
• At this point doesn’t utilize his length and power optimally to truly overwhelm solo-blockers with the bull-rush

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Nobody in college football was as physically dominant at the line of scrimmage as T’Vondre Sweat last season. His ability to swallow double-teams but also become more of a play-maker in the run game when soloed up made Texas one of the toughest defenses to run the ball against (averaging a miniscule 2.9 yards per carry). You’d like him to play a little lower still – especially watching teammate Byron Murphy fire off the ball next to him – and he’s not going to give you a whole lot in the pass-rush department as long as he doesn’t master his power-approach and the ways he can work off it. With that being said, if you understand what he is, this guy can change how your defense operates, because he consistently demands and extra pair of hands and allows your linebackers to roam freely, while having the ability to put interior pass-protectors on skates occasionally. For a mountain of a man like this, conditioning and how much he can play will always be a question, but he did earn his highest PFF grade (91.7) while playing a career-high 503 snaps last season. If Mazi Smith can go at the end of the first round last year, Sweat deserves to be a late second-rounder.
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5. Braden Fiske, Florida State

6’5”, 305 pounds; RS SR
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A three-star recruit for Western Michigan in 2018, Fiske was on the field for just 18 snaps as a true freshman, before appearing in 12 games as a rotational player the following season, recording 24 tackles, two TFLs and a sack. He started all six contests during the 2020 COVID-shortened campaign, putting up the same tackle number, but about double the negative plays created respectively. Starting all 25 contests the following two years, he racked up 101 tackles, 20 of those for loss and ten sacks, along with three passes batted down, two fumbles forced and one recovered – all this past year. He decided to prove his talents in the Power Five for 2023 with the Seminoles and backed it up with a second-team All-ACC campaign, thanks to 43 total stops, nine TFLs and six sacks.
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~Run defense:~

• True worker-bee on the defensive interior, who’s a pest for any team facing him
• When offensive linemen block down on Fiske or seal him on the backside, it regularly looks like they’re just trying to hold up in pass-protection rather than bringing the fight to him
• Pro-actively encounters double-teams and is able to hold pretty firm ground
• There are some plays where it truly looks like the offense is running into a wall, as there’s no movement at the point of attack against Fiske and then the back comes to a dead-stop as he collides with the D-tackle at the line of scrimmage
• Consistently plays the game with a great motor and is looking to work off blocks
• You frequently see him get involved on tackles ten yards past the line of scrimmage, but also if he misses initially, pop straight back up and join the party
• Logged at least 26 defensive stops each of the past three seasons, speaking to his level of activity
• Him and teammate Jared Verse were amongst boys in the ACC Championship game vs. Louisville, whether Fiske was man-handling the interior O-line with power or penetrated the backfield for negative plays, including a TFL on the very first snap from scrimmage

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~Pass-rush:~

• Fiske’s get-off is up there with basically anybody among this interior D-linemen class to immediately stress the shoulder of pass-protectors
• Has some awesome reps of guards setting out to him rushing from the three-technique and beating them across the face with a shockingly rapid arm-over move, where he basically slaps that guy’s butt as he steps through
• Really works those hands and you see him break free even when four hands touch him with protection being slid his way
• If his initial rush stalls, Fiske will just work into the depth of the pocket and get his hands up to challenge passing lanes for the quarterback
• Constantly is looking to disengage or spin away from blockers late, in order to chase after the quarterback
• When he’s asked to spike into linemen or almost bowl over guys as he slants across multiple gaps trying to create a free lane for one of his teammates, he will do so with great determination and force
• Yet his burst and ability to turn a tight corner on delayed loops is also massive, particularly being able to shut down quarterbacks trying to escape the pocket
• Over his final two seasons with WMU, Fiske’s 81 pressures were tied for fifth among FBS interior defensive linemen, before adding 28 more on 263 pass-rush snaps in one year with SMU
• Impressive with how he diagnoses screens to the back and is able to force quarterbacks to dirt the ball

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~Weaknesses:~

• Sort of a tweener, playing too upright for what you’d like to see from a three-technique but doesn’t project well as somebody playing over the center and dealing with doubles frequently
• Comes in with an inherent length disadvantage at only 31-inch arms and it limits his ability to really threaten the edges of blockers
• Too often gets caught hand-fighting at the line initially rather than winning to one shoulder early
• Presents a limited radius as a tackler, leading to a career miss rate of 15.3%

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Fiske has been on an astronomic rise during this pre-draft process, catching up with a high grade that I already had on him based on watching him during the actual season. The motor and level of activity he played with made him one of my favorite players to study overall. This guy comes off the ball with a purpose. He can penetrate on run plays but will also strain to control his space and then slide off blocks to get his hands on the ball-carrier. He has the quickness and his movements and hand-swipes to put pass-protectors to, but will also push them up the pocket and make quarterbacks uncomfortable back there if he has to. Unfortunately, his arm length is clearly below NFL standards and you have to question if there’s a clean schematic fit for him at that profile. Yet, with how dominant he was throughout Senior Bowl week and the incredible performance he delivered at the combine – leading all interior defensive linemen in the 40-yard dash (4.78), vertical (33.5 inches) and broad jump (9’9”), as well as short-shuttle time (4.37) – I have a tough time seeing him make it outside the top-50 picks now.
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6. Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson

6’4”, 290 pounds; RS SR
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Despite only playing two years of high school football, Orhorhoro was a top-1000 overall recruit and became the first Clemson commit from the state of Michigan since 1975. He barely got onto the field his first two years for the Tigers, but over the following two as a rotational piece, he combined for 59 tackles, eight for loss each year, 6.5 combined sacks, eight passes batted down at the line and a fumble recovered in each.
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~Run defense:~

• Lined up all over the D-line for the Tigers, from nose-tackle all the way to six-technique
• Defends the run with good pad-level and maximizes his length when asked to gap-control or even two-gap
• From shade-alignments and on slants, he consistently is looking to attack one shoulder of the blocker and keep his opposite arm free
• You love his ability to stay square on the front-side of zone concepts, lock out and then fall back a gap as he tracks the ball-carrier, creating first contact
• Frequently is able to press off and create leverage on the gap after the guy across from him takes that initial step reach-block him
• Was very effective on early-down gap-exchanges, with his lateral agility to loop over the top of traffic and take away the front-side, forcing running backs to redirect
• Looks like he’s almost bouncing off blockers and then running down the back a few times, providing excellent pursuit
• Received PFF grades above 75 vs. the run in each of the past two seasons

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~Pass-rush:~

• The ability to win against centers with the club-rip, where he pushes at the shoulder and really pulls the inside arm through leads to some clean Ws for him
• Has some nice reps where he freezes the feet of guards by stuttering off the line and then cornering his rush with that rip-through
• Packs a rapid arm-over to free himself from pass-protectors as he’s recognizing play-action after engaging with those guys
• Guards lunging forward trying to quick-set him get beat cleanly off the line with the club-swim a few times
• Yet if they initially sit back, he’s also very good at anticipating up their punch and linking his arms and hips in order to win on cross-face moves paired with a tight arm-over mauneuver
• When he’s at the hip of a blocker and that guy has him arm-barred to push off with the back of his near-arm or pull it over and clear that, as he chases the quarterback
• Showcases good awareness for screen passes and trails the back working outside, forcing quarterbacks to dirt the ball
• Was tied for tenth among interior D-linemen in this draft in 2023 pass-rush productivity (7.1) – 26 pressures on 235 rush opportunities

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~Weaknesses:~

• Has room to improve his ability to read and counter the first step(s) of the offensive line, particularly staying a half gap ahead so to speak against wide zone
• Gets blown off the ball by double-teams quite a bit, lacking the ability to anchor effectively against the angular element of those
• When linemen get their hands inside his chest quickly (on short-sets), too often he’ll end up battling them instead of being forceful with attacking one shoulder to gain control of the rep
• Generally has room to grow as a “reactionary” pass-rusher, countering the approach of opponents on the fly and figuring out how to give them trouble throughout games – being moved around as much as he was didn’t help with that development, to be fair

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Assuming no issues in terms of medical report or otherwise, I believe the top-five on the interior D-linemen is pretty concrete, even though the order may ultimately look different for the NFL as a whole. With that being said, Orhorhoro was pretty clearly my next name up here, because even though he’s not a complete player at this point or I see a defined scheme fit, I see him as an extremely useful player for a variety of systems. His ability to play low, combined with length, the short-area quickness and play demeanor, you’re got yourself a pack of dynamite on the interior. I do believe you want to protect him early on at least, where he‘s in shade-alignments and can play that “gap-and-a-half” but not deal with legit double-teams, and he certainly has room to grow in that first phase of the pass-rush and he approaches those matchups. However, I really liked his tape and then he finished with a 9.88 RAS score at the combine thanks the second-best broad jump (9’8”), third-best vert (32 inches) and fourth-best 40 (4.89) for his position, along with putting together an excellent on-field workout.
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7. Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State

6’2”, 285 pounds; RS SO
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The rest of the analysis can be found here!The rest of the analysis can be found here!

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https://preview.redd.it/aiw358f6dvsc1.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff5260c708f397f0552f08d9dc4deb2df4fd38f8
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8. Mekhi Wingo, LSU

6’0”, 285 pounds; JR
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https://preview.redd.it/ri6964bgdvsc1.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4cbae655073c7247c173c5bb2b0a62e38d8a8045
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9. Brandon Dorlus, Oregon

6’3”, 285 pounds; RS SR
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https://preview.redd.it/yhgkuh2odvsc1.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3edb2c250ba3f59f2710877f8b2f2561dfff72b1
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T.-10. Tyler Davis, Clemson

6’2”, 300 pounds; RS SR
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https://preview.redd.it/7dyhgvyqdvsc1.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ae266dc1e843ac3c6177f3f3f401cf0eafe9e10
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T.-10. Fabien Lovett, Florida State

6’4”, 315 pounds; RS SR
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Tremendous potential:

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https://preview.redd.it/pmxz10qudvsc1.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=478f43e0e2509f48a80ee8d38cd440c7c6c1e077
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Maason Smith, LSU
6’5”, 310 pounds; RS SO
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Leonard Taylor III, Miami
6’3”, 305 pounds; JR
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The next names up:

DeWayne Carter (Duke), McKinnley Jackson (Texas A&M), Khristian Boyd (Northern Iowa), Keith Randolph Jr. (Illinois), Gabe Hall (Baylor), Marcus Harris (Auburn), Justin Eboigbe (Alabama) & Logan Lee (Iowa)
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If you enjoyed this article, please visit the original piece & feel free to check out my video on the biggest risers and fallers coming out of the NFL combine!
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Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk
Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk
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Four years after Patrick Mahomes pedaled backwards and hit Tyreek Hill on “2-3 Jet Chip Wasp” to convert a third-and-15 and start their comeback over the 49ers, these two sides are set to face off again on the biggest stage. This time around, Kansas City is looking to cement itself as a dynasty, with their third championship in five years, while San Francisco is going for their sixth title in franchise history, but the first one in 29 years, after knocking on the door with four NFC championship game appearances in those last five seasons.
The Niners looked dominant throughout the regular season en route to the NFC’s number one seed, before having to battle until the end against the Packers and Lions, coming back from a 17-point deficit in that conference title game. Meanwhile, it wasn’t nearly as smooth a ride for the Chiefs, trying to defend their championship, finishing with an 11-6 record and having to go on the road in the playoffs for the first two teams in the Mahomes era.
Based on the current active rosters, the 49ers are slated to return nine players and the Chiefs seven who were also part of those Super Bowl 54 teams. Both Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid return as head coaches, while Steve Spagnuolo on defense and Dave Toub on special teams for the Chiefs are the only two of six total coordinators still around. They also have the benefit of a quarterback starting his fourth Super Bowl in five years, but the Niners have their best signal-caller under Shanahan in the Bay Area.
I want to look at both sides of the ball, break down in detail how the offensive and defensive units function respectively, along with how I believe they’ll match up, before presenting a couple of X-factors for each group and ultimately give you my prediction for the final score.
Let’s dive in:
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49ers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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NINERS O:

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https://preview.redd.it/5858l0ezp7hc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=a41ebfe4df109dec805a3b0042a14921198efd0b
Going through the history of head coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, they’ve been a very efficient offense every year without a difference-maker at quarterback, considering their track records once they moved on. However, with a full season of Brock Purdy running the show, they’ve taken things to the next level. Looking at the regular season numbers, the 49ers easily the number one offense in expected points added per play (0.179) and success rate (51.6%), with the top marks on both dropbacks and run plays, along with being tops in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (31.8%). In fact, the difference between them and number two in DVOA is the same as the gap between second and eighth. Their passing EPA is down a little bit – in large part due to Purdy struggling in the rain until the final drive of the Divisional Round game against the Packers – but they’ve actually been even more effective on the ground by quite a margin (0.1 EPA better). They also led the league with 75 explosive passes (20+ yards) and overall in terms of yards per play (6.6 YPP). Once again, due to the weather conditions versus Green Bay and Deebo Samuel getting banged up early on, that number was a little bit down, but they still logged four such explosives in that contest and then eight more in the NFC title against Detroit.

Run game:

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The “Shanahan offense” and in particular its run are terms that are often vaguely thrown around. The base run concept of wide zone that Kyle father’s Mike Shanahan popularized towards the end of the millennium has become a core component of many offensive systems across the NFL, but as you follow its trails and look at how Kyle himself has continued to evolve during his tenure in San Francisco, you realize that it would be a disservice to categorize what they do in such a simplistic manner. While they haven’t swung so far towards a more vertical orientation, such as one of his disciples Sean McVay with the Rams, where now their primary run concept is duo, they’ve certainly become more diverse in their approach. They still major in the inside and outside zone, but while they started to only enhance that horizontal stretch of the defense by tossing the ball to the back a couple of years ago, now it’s more about having additional blockers on the move at the snap already along with different sift elements to kick out the backside man at the end of the line of scrimmage, such as with a tight-end or fullback. So while the idea remains to make their opponents flow play-side, in part because they have a running back more suited to make quick decisions and translate information to his feet, they end up hitting inside a lot more than they would’ve in prior iterations. Along with that, pulling the backside guard plus a TE/FB on power and counter plays is a lot more frequent.
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https://reddit.com/link/1alc4b0/video/eltdlet3q7hc1/player
Where Shanahan is truly special though, is the way he can identify how you’ll defend certain looks and dress up the same plays differently. More than any other team in the league, the Niners use shifts and motion at the snap to create numbers advantages against static defenses. Yet, if opponents do react to it and try to overload that way, they’ll happily hit weak-side (inside zone) runs. Additionally, when they do want to get the ball out to the perimeter, they love to run toss out of more condensed sets along with flipping the ball to receivers on end-arounds/reverses, frequently off counter action, where they pull what ends up the play-side guard the opposite way, as a false key presented to linebackers. In particular, they love to use Kittle as a kick-out element basically to their toss plays, while having receivers in condensed splits pin down edge-defenders, in order to get their tackles out to the perimeter as well. Separate from the scheme itself, Christian McCaffrey has turned himself into an elite decision-maker and operator in condensed space, where he truly understands how body language can affect second-level defenders, how to press creases, get guys moving to one side of blocks and cutting the opposite way at the last moment. For the regular season, he finished second in average rushing yards over expected (1.32) to only Miami’s Devon Achane, who just set a new NFL record in yards per attempt on a much smaller sample size. And he did so rushing against the highest rate of 8+ defenders in the box (36%) among RBs with 90+ carries, according to Next Gen Stats. I wouldn’t say San Francisco has maulers on the O-line outside of left tackle Trent Williams and the one blemish you can put on them is that they’ll happily keep running into unfavorable looks, particularly on early downs.

Pass game:

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So, fundamentally you’d think an offense so expertly constructed in the run game would heavily rely on moving the launch point of the quarterback with bootlegs and building plays off punish the flow of the defense with misdirection throws. And don’t get me wrong – they still have plenty of that on the menu. However, they have gone from the most play-action-heavy offense over the last couple of years to being in the middle of the pack this season. Part of that is modern NFL defenses adjusting to the influence Shanahan’s coaching tree and its offsprings have had on the landscape of football, but also having a quarterback, who is more comfortable and a cleaner, quicker decision-maker from the pocket. There are a lot more new-school West Coast elements I would call it, where the route distributions are very similar to what you may find in even the old Bill Walsh playbooks from the late 80s and early 90s, but they do it with a lot more movement before and at the snap, where Shanahan understands extremely well how to create issues for how match-coverages operate. Where Kyle separates himself from the rest of the league though is his ability to isolate defenders and if there’s a weakness across that unit, keep picking on it relentlessly. We saw that came to full effect in their week 13 win at Philadelphia, when they put those linebackers in hell for four quarters by the way their heads were spinning. I actually put together an extensive All-22 analysis on the way San Francisco threw all kinds of misdirection at them, putting those guys in a bind with high-lows and changing up who they were responsible for matching multiple times.
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https://reddit.com/link/1alc4b0/video/m6fx5uqaq7hc1/player
One of the big differences for San Francisco’s more traditional dropback game is how insanely good Brandon Aiyuk has become – in particular as that isolated X receiver on the backside of the formation. He finished the regular season third among all pass-catchers in yards per route run (3.01) and has absolutely feasted when left one-on-one. We’ve seen Shanahan play around with that a lot, where they’d work that backside matchup when calling four-strong concepts the other way, before taking advantage of the space it creates as defenses adjust and now another pass-catcher would have a lot of room to run on a crosser towards where the receiver was originally lined up, as that guy ends up being bracketed. An element to watch that they've incorporated is a swing route with a designated lead-blocker, almost like an option to throw a screen pass within a typical pure-progression read. Being able to use that type of route-running expert like Aiyuk requires a guy not only willing to hit him on in-breakers and setting up YAC opportunities – like previous quarterbacks would do as well – but also capable of testing defenses outside the numbers. That’s where Purdy has added another layer to the aerial attack, as you see him hit out routes from the opposite hash and push the ball vertically, especially working against aggressive isolated defenders on the backside, who you can occasionally punish with double-moves. Also taking into account what Brock brings to the table with extending plays with his slithery-ness, those are the components that have furthered what already made San Francisco a nightmare to prepare for with their position-agnostic personnel, where they can freely swap alignments and have five dangerous eligibles out there when they’re in a traditional run-play 21 grouping (two backs, one tight-end). The one concern to keep in mind is that outside of left tackle, this O-line has issues at providing clean pockets beyond the typical “play-clock”, which has become an issue at times when defenses have changed up the picture for the QB and made him hold onto the ball, which is why the other four starters have received PFF grades between 50 and 65.
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CHIEFS D:

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On the other side, this is the best unit defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has coached in Kansas City and maybe the best overall since he put together a masterful gameplan to stymie the Patriots in Super Bowl 42, to ruin their undefeated season in 2008. The Chiefs defense finished the regular season sixth in EPA per play (-0.076) and fourth in success rate allowed (39.8%), along with second in the two more traditional statistics – yards (289.8 YPG) and points allowed (17.3 PPG). That’s because even though they rank 28th in rush EPA, they’re top-three in both categories against the pass. They’re actually the only team in the NFL that has a better per-dropback success rate allowed (40%) than rushing success rate allowed (41.4%). Even beyond the statistics, the attitude they’ve brought to the table and how they’ve picked up the slack at times when the offense hasn’t been lighting up scoreboards, has been highly impressive. Looking at their three-game sample size during these playoffs, they’d rank dead-last in both EPA and success rate against the run, although in large part facing highly mobile QBs in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson affected that. What has mattered is that they dominated the Dolphins up front in one of the coldest games in NFL history, making it feel like those guys didn’t want to be out there anymore during their seven-point outing, even in by far their worst showing at Buffalo, they were able to create a key stop at the end to force what ultimately turned into a missed field goal attempt, and then they just held the likely MVP Lamar Jackson to just ten points in the AFC title game, with an aggressive gameplan and timely takeaways.

Run game:

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The Chiefs like to start out games in a lot of two-high looks and generally want to operate out of those, because of the options it gives them against the pass. However, a big key to them being able to live in that world is how their safeties run the alley and involve themselves in the run fit, when they’re not actually accounted for. So structurally, they’re willing to concede box count advantages to their opponents when they push explosive passing opponents into more run-heavy scripts, while trusting their ability to rally and limit that effectiveness. Where this is interesting though is looking at the AFC title game and seeing that they are equally capable of making certain opponents check out of run calls, because they have the personnel flexibility to put bigger bodies out there, using base personnel and making a safety threaten to drop down as the quarterback is about to get into his cadence. That’s how the Ravens ended up with an insanely low six(!) carries by their RBs against them, after leading the league in rushing. At a time when many teams across the NFL have continued to get smaller, the Chiefs have zagged the other way. The six defensive linemen who have played more than 35% of snaps for them (nobody else is above 20%) have an average weight of 284.5 pounds. That’s because they ask that group to play a lot of gap-control instead of shooting up the field, in order to occupy the O-line, while the second level can aggressively shoot through open lanes. Meanwhile, they’re one of only two teams in the NFL to use both base (three linebackers) and dime personnel (six defensive backs) on over 23% of snaps. They may have Leo Chenal at 250+ pounds basically functioning as another D-lineman for a five-man surface on first down, but on third-and-long play cover-zero, where they double/bracket two pass-catchers on third-and-long.
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https://reddit.com/link/1alc4b0/video/p3i2ry3dr7hc1/player
Where they’ve struggled as a unit is not only when offenses have called their bluff of the illusion of disadvantageous box counts to run the ball against on one hand, but then from a more schematic perspective, when opponents were able to use angles up front and create new gaps with pulling linemen. Because the Chiefs want their D-line to hold its ground, blocking down against them and just keeping them there becomes easier than trying to run right at them, as it’s more about walling off bodies whilst the displacement offenses intend to create is with those bigger bodies on the move. KC has bigger defensive ends to attack pullers on designated kick-outs, but you put pressure on those linebackers to box in what would be referred to as a lead-blocker wrapping around from the backside. While Spags helped push Baltimore away from the run game, two of their seven designed carries were back-to-back FG power (fullback kick-out, guard wrap-around) calls for 21 and 15 yards respectively. As cool as watching that unit match the aggressiveness of their coordinator is, that can also be taken advantage of with counter plays – in particular in short-yardage – and flipping the ball to one of your receivers on reverse action. The one other factor to look at is the availability/health of Derrick Nnadi. He’s their primary (shade) nose-tackle and while the sample size is limited, if you extrapolated their two playoff games without him in the lineup for a full season, they’d rank dead-last in both EPA per rush (0.090) and rushing success rate (57.1%).

Pass game:

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Transitioning to how Spags approaches the pass game, it’s very different on early downs and to some degree early in games compared to more defined dropback situations. For the regular season, they ran cover-two at the third-highest rate (16.7%). That’s what they want to do when offenses can either run or pass, because of what I just explained about having that heavier front-seven along with keeping routes in front of them. At the same time, they used either cover-one or cover-zero on a combined 30% of dropbacks, along with straight quarters on another 21.2%. That speaks to the confidence they have in their guys in coverage for 2-3 seconds at least, to where it allows them to send additional rushers. They posted the eight-highest blitz rate across the NFL (31.2%), while using stunts fewer than any other team (11.4%). When they get to those longer downs, it’s not about sitting back and hoping that gives the front enough time to get home. They want to be the aggressors, either challenging receivers off the line to throw off the timing or because of how well-taught those DBs are, being able to read routes playing off and driving on them, since they know quarterbacks won’t have the time to hold onto the ball for double-moves typically. Through week 18, they had posted the second-highest pressure rate league-wide (27.8%) according to pro-football-reference.com, and nobody created more unblocked pressures (73), meaning defenders putting heat on the QB without being accounted for by the protection. You just don’t ever really see them line up one safety deep and play straight zone, as indicated by the lowest rate of cover-three league-wide (17.2%).
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https://reddit.com/link/1alc4b0/video/d1uvqstkr7hc1/player
Arguably no team in the NFL has a more physical group of cover-guys, which is why they trust that group to be one-on-one on such a regular basis, in combination with their safeties and their smarts to use leverage and route anticipation to their advantage. Trent McDuffie was a first-team All-Pro selection in the slot this year and I believe you can make a strong case that L’Jarius Sneed on the outside could’ve joined him there. Across 16 regular season games, Sneed was targeted 100 times, yet allowed just under 30 yards per contest, with zero touchdowns compared to his two interceptions (slightly worse in the playoffs). How tight the refs call things in this game will be huge however, since he was penalized 11 total times throughout the year. With all that being said though, going back to the tape from the AFC Championship game, as well as the Chiefs did for the most part at plastering receivers while heating up Lamar, there were opportunities to hit a couple of big plays down the field. He was about to launch the ball for a potential 64 touchdown to Rashod Bateman on a deep post route, but Charles Omenihu was able to beat the left tackle around the edge and strip the QB. That’s along with a couple of deep balls down the sideline in the Divisional Round not being hauled in by Bills receivers for a good 100 yards, despite them having a step on their defenders. When the Chiefs don’t bring extra pressure, I’d still say the areas you want to attack are their linebackers when isolated – particularly if Willie Gay Jr. at least isn’t 100% – and to some degree that second outside corner, when McDuffie is in the slot. They also suffered a significant loss in terms of their pass-rush when Omenihu tore his ACL in that conference title game.
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HOW THEY MATCH UP:

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https://preview.redd.it/onl6597pr7hc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=029dca89f0f853d7b368fb5937e159cf78b93c61
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While the Chiefs ended up winning 44-23 when they traveled to San Francisco in week seven last season, early on it looked like Niners were going to bludgeon the visitors. They ran the ball on four of the first six plays for a combined 38 yards. That was actually Christian McCaffrey’s debut performance with his current team and he only touched the ball ten times – fewest in any game he’s finished with San Fran. They had plenty of other runs pop, but some ticky-tack holding calls took them off the board. Re-watching the tape from that game, only strengthened my belief/memory of a lot of the negative plays being a product of quarterback play. Jimmy Garoppolo made several costly mistakes, holding onto the ball, missing open receivers and running himself into sacks with questionable pocket movement. What made me smirk at the end of the All-22 was that we got to see Brock Purdy for the first time as a rookie, outside of a kneel-down, and he actually had a couple of nice throws on deep in-breakers before getting picked off at the goal-line when he slightly overthrew another one of those.
In terms of the run game, the advanced metrics would strongly signal the Niners should continue to have success calling inside and outside zone, as it presents the biggest advantage in terms of success rate differential (both +11.2% above average). With that being said, as I already explained, counter as the “counter-punch” to take advantage of the second level defensively starts opening their shoulders prematurely as they work laterally could result in a couple of explosive gains and I’d think a healthy Deebo will be a focal point of the gameplan, where the get him involved quick-hitting end-arounds and sweep plays out of reduced splits. Once KC starts reacting to it and guys away from the point of attack have to freeze instead of chase, you’ll see McCaffrey cu up runs between the guards with success. While being able to stay on/ahead of schedule will be key for San Francisco of course, the facet of the game that will be the biggest tell for its outcome is the Niners’ top-ranked passing game against a top-three defense against in EPA and dropback success rate.
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https://reddit.com/link/1alc4b0/video/xtuxqk0tr7hc1/player
As tremendous as the Chiefs may be at plastering receivers in man-coverage, to give the rush a chance to get home, this is a different animal. No collection of skill-position players is more capable of killing man-coverage, because of their ability to break that one tackle and put the rest of the defense into scramble mode basically, as they transition from having their eyes locked on their responsibility to locate the “free runner” and trying to corral him. One metric that supports that idea is the fact that Deebo, Kittle and Aiyuk all finished the regular season in the top-15 in terms of average YAC above expectation, according to Next Gen Stats. Going back to when these two sides last met, it was a big George Kittle day, as Shanahan designed a lot of misdirection plays off play-action for him. Yet, when they do get to designated passing situations, the matchup I’ll be watching closest is Brandon Aiyuk versus L’Jarius Sneed. KC has bullied several opponents along the way with their aggressive pressure packages. Throwing hot and alerting to screens against it has rarely been a good answer, in large part due to the excellent tackling by their DBs. As a unit, they only missed 76 tackles throughout the regular season despite that style of play (sixth-fewest in the league). I can remember that early in the season, the Vikings had success disrupting the pass game with a blitz-heavy approach, but otherwise Shanahan has found solutions schematically. Including the postseason, Purdy has posted a league-best passer rating (119.4) and yards per attempt (9.9) against the blitz, and one more crazy stat on him – his 7.94 yards per attempt under pressure would rank fifth(!) among quarterbacks on ALL plays. So could we maybe see them deploy resources into coverage a little more and use simulated pressures, since on plays where they don’t blitz opposing passers hold onto the ball for 3.02 seconds (fourth-longest in the NFL)?
One position the Chiefs should have an advantage against is right tackle Colton McKivitz. He has allowed easily a team-high nine sacks and he’s the biggest question mark, trying to hold up in defined dropback situations. George Karlaftis will regularly match up with him, having racked up 34 combined sacks and QB hits through 19 games. Yet, I would also expect Spags to move Chris Jones out there on critical downs, where his power advantage will help close in those walls for Purdy. I’ll also be very interested in Shanahan’s usage of wide receivers, in two areas. One of those is how much the Niners like to put those guys into condensed splits and involve them closer to the action in the run game. That has largely played into Spags’ hands however during his time in Kansas City, because he takes that as an invitation to blitz his DBs, who now have a shorter towards the ball. The second part of this is general personnel groupings, because while San Francisco has built their own “death lineup” – whose name was inspired by another Bay Area team in the Golden State Warriors – when they are in 21 (meaning McCaffrey, Juszczyk, Kittle, Aiyuk and Deebo), as we already discussed, the Chiefs like to counter with base, at least on early downs. In part, that’s because the one position they don’t have a ton of confidence in is that second outside corner, which is why they move McDuffie out there with three linebackers on the field and a third guy at that spot has only logged a cumulative 63% of snaps, if you take out week 18, when both definitive starters sat out. I’d still very much expect Shanahan to ride with the crew that got them here, but could we maybe see some more Jauan Jennings in 11 personnel sets and force KC to match with traditional nickel – or take advantage if they get a receiver matched up against a safety? One huge advantage this would present – the Niners are number one in rushing success rate with three receivers on the field, while the Chiefs rank 31st defending it.
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Chiefs offense vs. 49ers defense:

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CHIEFS O:

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https://preview.redd.it/f94cmhi0s7hc1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba63d36856158365ab7f71f8a24df890048d82a0
For Kansas City’s offense, it truly is remarkable how they’ve been able to go from an offense that was marked with mistakes, leading the league with 39 team drops in particular, and that has struggled to create chunk plays, to all of a sudden looking like they can get that key first down or score whenever they really need it. The Chiefs during the regular season ranked just outside the top-ten in both offensive EPA per play (0.021) and success rate (43.8%), along with scoring more than a touchdown less on average (21.8 PPG) than what they’ve done since 2018 (first season under Mahomes). And while the latter of those two numbers is only slightly higher, they’d be pretty much right there with the 49ers as the number one unit in terms of dropback EPA (0.294) looking at their three playoff contests. A massive reason for that is of course is Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce getting back to creating magic on third downs, but also the ability to create explosive plays. For the regular season, they were tied for 15th in 20+ yard gains (62). During these playoffs, they logged seven each against the Dolphins and Bills – in inclement weather – and then a couple against the Ravens, when they had built a ten-point lead and it was more about ball control, being in possessing for 37:30 minutes. After rotating receivers at a high rate throughout the year, they’ve settled in on Rashee Rice as their designated yards-after-catch threat (finished second to only Deebo Samuel with 8.3 YAC/reception), MVS as their primary deep threat (108 yards on just five catches during the postseason) and of course Kelce as the high-volume target, as he’s had a little more juice after being able to sit out week 18, leading all pass-catchers in the playoffs in targets (27), receptions (23) and yards (262). Yet, while positive game-script has played a huge role, with inconsistencies that plagued them throughout the regular season, they’ve gone from the seventh-most pass-happy unit (60.2% of plays) to a very balanced attack (53.3% pass rate – would rank fifth-lowest), with the violent Isiah Pacheco handling the majority of the work.
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Run game:

As I just mentioned, it took Kansas City a while to transition to this ground-oriented approach, which not only mitigates some of their issues in pass-protection on the edges and wide receiver consistency. Focusing on this postseason run, I don’t believe I’ve ever seen an Andy Reid-coached team become this patient with the run game. A big reason they should’ve probably swayed that way earlier is the number of advantageous looks they’ve been presented to run against. Isiah Pacheco, who has handled a massive 79.8% of RB carries when available, faced defenses with 8+ defenders in the box on just 12.2% of his carries (41st among 49 RBs with 90+ carries) – that’s basically a third as much as McCaffrey, which I mentioned earlier for the 49ers. Even with the issues this group has had for most of the year at threatening their opponents through the air, because they’ve gone away from the multi-tight-end sets that were a big factor in their run at the Lombardi trophy last year, opponents have chosen to make Big Red lean into a facet he’s refused to at times in his past. That’s a big reason they were able to finish top-ten in yards per attempt on inside zone, power, counter and pin-and-pull – so four of the six big run play categories in terms of how they’re typically categories.
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https://i.redd.it/bf61li6nt7hc1.gif
With that being said, there’s a clear path for how they should be trying to attack the edges of the defense on the ground. They’ve been very effective when condensing the formation and getting the back out on the perimeter with toss plays. And presenting that threat is of course, because it forces the entire unit on the other side to flow that way and open up lanes on the inside. Where they’ve gone wrong to some degree is insisting on running outside zone from the shotgun, in order to support the RPO game, which messes with the blocking angles, and then the occasional sweep plays with their receivers, in particular when they get a little too fancy, trying to catch the defense off guard in short-yardage situations. Getting back to what they generally do well, you want to see Pacheco be able to hit the hole at full speed and not have to read plays behind the line of scrimmage. As fun as he is to watch, running the ball as if he has rabies it seems, he’s not advanced in his ability to set up run plays conceptually and adjust his pacing on the fly. What he does typically is run towards open space, which can close in a hurry if you tell the second level to meet him there, being able to take a direct angle. So there may be more of a focus coming into this matchup with how KC can affect the defensive backfield with eye-cand, in order to not allow them to fly to the ball.
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Pass game:

Moving on to the pass game now – when Andy Reid first unleashed Patrick Mahomes onto the scene in 2018, it took all of three games for me to acknowledge that he would be taking the NFL by storm and he ended up winning his first MVP award, as they were running a style of offense unlike what we had quite seen before. While the ideas weren’t completely new, some of the deep-developing concepts they used and how they allowed the speed of someone like Tyreek Hill to shine was stressing defenses in ways they weren’t used to. Since then, as defenses across the league have transitioned into playing a lot more top-down, basing off their coverages in two-high safety looks and being less static on the back-end, so have the Chiefs made their adjustments. We saw that in 2022 – after trading Tyreek to Miami – when they had just one ace left in Travis Kelce, along with role-players around him. They went from the most explosive aerial attacks to a well-oiled machine, which had Pat getting rid of the ball quicker, with a lower depth of target and attacking the middle of the field repeatedly. This season, that trend has gone even further, but the difference in their quarterback winning a second MVP trophy and being part of the 12th-ranked passing attack in EPA has been a decline in Kelce’s play, highly inconsistent ancillary pass-catchers and a struggling duo of offensive tackles – at least until they reached the tournament.
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Taking a look at Mahomes’ playoff statistics is truly insane. He has now basically played a full season when you just look at his 17 postseason appearances and despite facing the toughest competition across those, who have designed ultra-specific gameplans against him/them, the Chiefs with #15 under center have posted a 14-3 record and Pat himself has put up numbers that would rival, if not outdo his best MVP campaign, accounting for 5360 yards and 44 touchdowns compared to only seven picks. In his last six playoff games, he has a sack rate of just 2% and he hasn’t thrown a single interception. So there are virtually no negative plays – which are the biggest indicators for drive success rate. This postseason, 50% of Mahomes’ throws have come out of his hand in less than 2.5 seconds (would rank ninth league-wide during the regular season) and he’s only averaging 6.7 intended air yards per attempt – which is actually just a tad higher than his regular season numbers (30th in the NFL). KC runs four-strong concepts more than any other offense in the league and they’ve taken it up a notch during their playoff run. The idea behind that is to flood zone coverages and put defenders into a bind with multiple routes in their vicinity. What that also does however is limit the space they can attack and asks a lot from their quarterback and primarily Kelce as the designated target to find openings as a tandem. Yet, when they used such concepts in the past, they’d have #87 on the backside to take advantage when singled up or the coverage would bump over towards the passing strength. NFL defenses have been more willing all season to play a little further off and make KC navigate through the limited space, in part also because of the lack of threats after the catch outside of Rashee Rice. That simply hasn’t been the case during the playoffs, where they’ve scored on 14 of 22 drives through the first three quarters and found more explosives, with a couple of them coming on long Mahomes scrambles. And of course, you always have the possibility of insane play-extension by the quarterback, who is as comfortable and creative out of structure/in the midst of chaos as anybody in history.
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NINERS D:

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Comparing where they’ve finished across multiple categories since these two sides last met, the 49ersdefense has taken a step backwards from where they’ve stood over the last five years, if you take out an injury-riddled 2020 season – where they still fielded a more than respectable unit. As I already explained in the prior paragraph, playing alongside a more explosive offense has led to gamescripts that have lent themselves to more easy yardage surrendered. Yet, the switch at defensive coordinator from DeMeco Ryans to Steve Wilks has also necessitated a certain adjustment period. Altogether, San Francisco’s D finished the regular season 10th in EPA per play (-0.052), but even worse – only 26th against the run. During their two-game playoff run, they’ve been even worse, allowing a success rate vs. the run of a massive 51.7% (which would be dead-last for the regular season). We’ll get to their issues in that regard momentarily, but they’ve been able to step up in the biggest moments, holding the Packers and Lions to a combined 1-of-4 on fourth downs, including when they were able to flush Jared Goff to force an incompletion which set up their game-winning touchdown drive, plus an interception to seal that win in the Divisional Round on an ill-advised throw across his body by Jordan Love. And looking at schedule-adjusted DVOA, they were up there for fourth league-wide (-9.6%), because of how well they’ve performed against the pass.
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Click here for the rest of the analysis, including X-factors and my score prediction!

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If you enjoyed this NFL breakdown, please consider heading over to the original article, and feel free to check out all my other video content.
Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk
Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk
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We have arrived at the final defensive segment of our positional draft breakdowns! In this edition, we’ll look at the top safeties available, which is always a somewhat challenging group, just because of where you project guys to play at the next level already. Whether it’s cornerbacks who will make the transition or some guys who could be seen as safeties or pure sub-package linebackers.
This class includes three names just in my personal top five, who primarily played nickel at the collegiate level and actually project best to stay there as they move on to the NFL, but otherwise their skill-set lends itself more to safety than outside corner. The rest of the list consists of a bunch of combo safeties, who can fill a multitude of roles and will offer their future defensive coordinators flexibility in terms of how they’re deployed, even though they aren’t necessarily great in one specific area. That’s sort of a sign of the NFL becoming more split-safety centric, where those guys are asked to fill a lot of different shoes.
Here’s what the top-ten looks like for me, along with a couple of guys that just missed the cut:
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1. Brian Branch, Alabama

6’0”, 195 pounds; JR
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The number three safety recruit in the recruit for 2020, Branch started three of 12 games as a true freshman, but was very productive in limited time (27 tackles, seven PBUs and two INTs). In year two, he turned into a full-time starter, racking up 55 total stops, a team-high nine pass break-ups, along with a sack and fumble recovery each. Those numbers increased significantly last year, with 90 total stops, 14(!) for loss, three sacks, two INTs and seven PBUs, making him a second-team All-American.
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+ Played the STAR spot from the Crimson Tide defense with the physicality of a linebacker, but you saw him basically line up at every single spot in the back-seven for the Crimson Tide at some point
+ Flies downhill against the run and hits with a purpose, thinking that he’s 220 pounds
+ Shows some suddenness to navigate around blockers, as well as the force to go through the chest of receivers, when needed
+ Understands when he can “shoot his shot” and slice through creases in the blocking, to create negative plays – 14 TFLs last year
+ Has his eyes locked in the backfield as he’s sinking with targets down the seams and rapidly shoots downhill against screens, dump-offs, etc.
+ Earned an elite run-defense grade by PFF last season at 90.7
+ The best tackler of this entire class, shooting low and clutching the back of the ball-carriers knees, so they can’t pull their feet out – Only missed four tackles for his entire career, giving him a miniscule miss rate of just 2.3% (176 attempts)
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+ Played a ton of off-man against a strong group of SEC slot receivers, which may be the most difficult task
+ Low and balanced in his pedal, with no wasted movement as he has to redirect forward
+ Excels at reading the hips of his man and is so quick to jump on in-breaking or slot curl routes, where he effectively swipes through the receiver’s hands
+ Recognizes when the guy across from him tilts his stem and positioning himself to not lose phase on the actual cut
+ Does well to pin the near-arm of receivers and slow them won by initiating contact in their routes
+ Has plenty of experience carrying tight-ends and number threes in trips on seams/benders, where he typically stays stride-for-stride with them
+ What you really like is Branch’s understanding for when to get into the side-shuffle momentarily as receivers are just about to pass him, to not overrun the break-point, but then having the speed to not actually allow the target to detach vertically
+ Stays locked in on his man and rarely allows them to separate on secondary route, not allowing a single catch of more 20 yards last year
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+ Shows an understanding for route patterns and being able to cut off angles for guys in match-zone
+ Bama regularly was put in the middle of three-deep safety looks and raced up as a robberat, ready to knock the head off guys breaking towards the middle
+ Confidently drives up against completions in front of him and reliably gets them on the ground
+ You see Branch go from mugging the A-gap to sinking to the hook/seam area on the field-side, line up over the slot and fly to the deep middle and stuff like that to change up Bama’s coverage looks
+ As a blitzer, Battle times things up tremendously well and is very deceptive with his body-language, as times leaning as if he’s dropping out after threating up a gap and then shooting through it unblocked
+ Got that wiggle to not allow running backs in pass-pro to square him up, but he also doesn’t away from running through them
+ Was one of the most effective pass-rushing DBs in the country across these past two seasons, with 17 total pressures across 80 blitzes (in passing situations)
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– Sub-par physical dimensions for a slot role nowadays, weighing in at 190 pounds at the combine, with only 30 and ¾-inch arms, where more well-schooled power slot and flex tight-ends may be able to lock him up as blockers
– There’s a lot of hook and general spot-dropping for Branch, where he doesn’t actually have to flip and run with guys
– While rarely actually isolated in deep coverage, you see him get beat in those situations a few times – the 4.58 in the 40 is a bit concerning
– Slot receivers with legit speed can put him on his heels, by pushing vertically at him – Texas’ Xavier Worthy and Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt blew by him a couple of times, and guys with a more complete route-tree will be able to take advantage of that space they create for themself underneath
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I can promise you that basically every defensive coordinator in the NFL is hoping his team drafts Branch some time in round one. The way he can even out the numbers in the box as a run-defender from the slot and type of outstanding tackling would be a major addition for anybody, even though his TFL production was in part due to his freedom to shoot inside of blockers. I think be an effective safety in a system that allows him to drive on routes from depth and play as that free-roaming defender when dropped down, but his best landing spot remains at nickel. The one question I do have is if he can he play true man-coverage against receivers with legit vertical prowess, when he can’t work with leverage and funnel those guys towards the deep coverage. And you’d like him to be a little bit bigger (without losing speed of course). If you do have a lockdown number one corner and you want to play that 10-vs-10 with condensed space as Branch is leveraged outside the slot, this is your guy. I don’t think he should slip out of the first round.
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2. Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M

6’2”, 200 pounds; JR
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One of the top-100 overall recruits in 2020, Johnson saw very limited playing time on special teams in year one, before becoming a second-team All-SEC performer the following season, with 79 total tackles, 8.5 of those for loss, an interception and five PBUs, plus a fumble forced. He repeated second-team all-conference last year, when he had similar tackling numbers and a career-best three forced fumblesk, but only one pass defensed.
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+ Very long defender, who can be used in a creative fashion by NFL coaches
+ Played pretty exclusively in the slot for the Aggies as a sophomore, before spending 22.0% in the box and 18.9% as a deep safety last year, showcasing his versatility
+ Shows good feel for how to position himself as a high-low defender and uses his leverage well, to force receivers to go through him in zone coverage
+ Can sink with his hips and shoulders pointed at the quarterback, but simultaneously gaining ground diagonally
+ You frequently see Johnson shut down hook and stick routes for minimal gains, just as those guys catch the ball
+ When he gets a bit of a runway to go through targeted receivers, they are typically going backwards
+ Held opposing pass-catcher to just 5.1 yards after the catch on average
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+ Has the body-type and athletic skills to match up one-on-one with different types of bodies on the inside and understands who he’s facing – where their strengths are and what to expect based on film study
+ Doesn’t overreact to those slot receivers, who try to fool him with trigger-steps and exaggerated movement off the line
+ When playing off-man, he recognizes any tilt within the stem or deceleration by receivers trying to set up breaks, already slightly shuffling that way, to challenge the catch-point right as the ball arrives there
+ Times up well when he swipes down with the near-arm or receivers trying to release outside, in order to pin their arm
+ Against tight-ends, he seems very comfortable playing with outside leverage and sticking with guys working across the field
+ Shows good feel for navigating around traffic as offenses try to pick/rub him off
+ With the way he rips through the reach of his man, you see him force some incompletions that look to already be in the books as receptions
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+ Really physical tackler, who tosses a lot of receivers to the ground like they’re nothing
+ At the same time he can create stalemates with bigger ball-carrier around the line of scrimmage, by hitting with a square chest and utilizing his hips to stop momentum – Earned tackling grades above 70 in all three years with the Aggies
+ You really like what Johnson presents as an edge-setter for your defense, consistently making sure to force the ball back inside near the point of attack as well as to bring the ball-carrier to the ground when unblocked on the backside against a cutback
+ Does well generally to play with extension through blocks and tracking the ball, yet he’s also routinely able to beat blockers to the spot and knife inside of guys, by turning his shoulder away from contact
+ You see him track from the backside as a slot defender and stand up running backs in the hole as they try to cut upfield a few times for basically no yardage, as well as flatten and trip them up as they’re about to clear the second level
+ Was asked to mug the B-gap and blitzed off the slot quite a bit, where he shows good anticipation for the snap
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– Saw very limited usage throughout his career with the Aggies as a deep safety, where it currently seems more like somebody sprinting back, just so he doesn’t get beat deep, or if he’s already aligned in single-high looks, almost walking back in an upright back-pedal
– With how high-hipped Johnson’s build is, there is some clunkiness to when he legitimately has to flip his hips fully vertically or pivot around after opening the wrong way initially
– Absolutely minimal ball-production across well over 1500 total snaps
– His prior missed tackle rate through the last two years basically doubled to 15.5% last season, with a large amount proportionally after he had to come down from depth, where he didn’t look as comfortable when working in expanded space
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Johnson lost some shine looking at public opinion compared to in which regard he was held last summer, because he missed three games, the Aggies finished with just a 5-7 record and his individual numbers were also slightly worse. However, as I checked the tape, other than what I saw in terms of his movement and the tackling as a deep middle safety, I didn’t really see anything that would lessen my opinion of him compared to heading into this past season. His length, instincts and football IQ make him a tremendous coverage player in the slot, on top of the way he improves your run defense whether he’s packed in tight or detached and how reliable he is at bringing ball-carriers to the ground, if you don’t ask him to work upfield by 10+ yards. The only things you don’t love is his projection against burners on inside if he can’t play with leverage and his miniscule ball-production. However, I don’t see that large a gap between him and Alabama’s Brian Branch, as a pro-ready big nickel.
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3. Sydney Brown, Illinois

5’10”, 210 pounds; SR
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Born in Ontario (Canada), this three-star recruit from 2018 immediately became a starter for the Illini and was so in all but one of 51 of his career games, as the defensive counterpart to his brother Chase Brown at running back. Across those, he piled up 320 combined tackles, ten of those for loss, ten interceptions (two of those returned for touchdowns), 16 pass break-ups, four forced fumbles and a scoop-and-score. In 2022 he was voted first-team by the coaches and second-team All-Big Ten by the media.
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+ Definitely not a safety who is content with sitting back on waiting for the ball-carrier in the run game, where you see him blow through the inside shoulder of blockers in reduced splits and fill the C-gap
+ Was regularly deployed in the box and you see some great moments of pulling bigger insert blockers off himself, to make an impact on the ball-carrier, while taking some receivers motioning into condensed splits for a ride
+ Shows no regard for his body with the way he crashes into some piles at full force, and he will shoot through the legs of fullbacks in the hole when needed
+ Does a nice job of swatting away the hands of hands of tight-ends and avoiding being pinned on the backside, in order to chase the ball
+ If you think you can assign a smaller slot receiver with blocking Brown in the run game, you’re sadly mistaken, plus he times up his hand-usage well and fights over rubs or gets around blockers in the quick screen game frequently
+ Regularly gets involved on tackles late and makes the sure the ball-carrier goes backwards
+ You see Brown blitz off the edge and dip underneath pullers or just chase from the backside, to create havoc in the backfield a few times
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+ Was constantly asked to match up with tight-ends and despite those guys having around 50 pounds on him, Brown was the one to dictate terms if anything, and used that contact to feel breaks coming, with plenty of pop in those massive 10 and ¼-inch hands
+ Such an easy mover, who presents excellent change-of-direction and has some teaching tape reps in off-man coverage – whether it’s streak routes/benders, corner or pivot routes, he typically is able to stay in phase
+ Even when his alignment dictates him opening one way and he should be vulnerable as guys work across his face, Brown has the snap in his hips to not get lost
+ Not afraid of guys being able to run by him down the middle of the field and actively swipes with the inside hand as guys trying to hold him off
+ Something he excels at is wrapping around and raking right through the hands of the intended receiver, without initiating contact with the body
+ Despite being right at that six-foot mark, Brown isn’t somebody you can take advantage of in jump-ball situations, He had a perfect rep against the Wyoming TE flexed out wide, being engaged the whole way and looking back at the quarterback, to pull the ball down with one hand and ending up with the PBU through that guy’s mitts
+ Had an incredible interception against Michigan State, where he beat up their flex TE Daniel Barker on a corner route, undercut it, located the football and came down with it through contact
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+ Showcases high football IQ and spatial awareness in zone coverage, plus he regularly contests the catch-point on late throws to targets around him
+ Illini coaches asked him to play the hook/flat area, bail out from the box into two-high shells, act as a robber, carry routes down the seams and more
+ Rarely seems to just be covering grass, adjusting his drops to the pattern and attaching to targets late
+ IDs running back screens and shows the quick burst to shoot through a lane between two blockers to shut those down
+ You saw Brown be mugged up in the A-gap and also come on those, happily launching himself through the back in protection
+ Improved his PFF grade each of the last three years, with a 78.4 this past season, being responsible for just one touchdown, compared to his six picks (58.7% completion percentage)
+ Arguably had as good a Senior Bowl week as anybody, just locking up WRs and TEs in man-coverage, making plays in coverage during team drills and exceling in run support
+ Finished top-four at the combine in the 40 (4.47), vertical jump (40.5 inches), broad (10’10”) and bench press (23) among safeties (the latter three being above the 90th percentile), along with looking throughout the on-field portion of the workout
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– Very short for a role in the box or slot, at 5’10” with 31 and ½-inch arms
– According to PFF, Brown only spent 60 snaps last season at deep safety, which isn’t optimal for a projection to an NFL that uses as much two-high looks as it’s ever done
– When asked to rotate into the deep middle every once in a while, that’s the one area where Brown is more so just getting to his landmark rather than processing the game and is able to track the quarterback’s eyes plus the targets around him
– Has a tendency of overrunning plays from the backside and fully committing his shoulders, when you’d like him to be in position to redirect his flow for cutbacks
– Missed 14 of 74 tackling attempts this past season, oddly losing his balance as he’s redirecting and failing to wrap up properly on too many occasions – He needs to learn how to come to balance and shoot his hips through contact
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This is one of my favorite players in this entire draft. I highlighted Brown as one of “my guys” a couple of weeks ago, because even though he’s seen a massive rise in terms of draft stock, when looking at consensus boards, I’m still significantly higher on than the consensus. He has show less positional versatility in terms of how he was deployed at Illinois than teammate Jartavius Martin – who will come up on this list very soon – but with the tremendous feet he has and how feisty he is against bigger bodies, I feel comfortable matching him up with anybody on the inside, I think he fits very well in a split-safety based systems thanks to his closing burst and ability to disrupt the catch-point, and if he can just learn to gather himself better as a tackler, he can be a top-tier run defender from anywhere in the secondary. How much more he can provide at the next level in terms of utilization as a coverage asset will be key to how early he goes, but he’s a no-doubt top-50 overall prospect for me personally.
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4. Jordan Battle, Alabama

6’1”, 210 pounds; SR
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The number two safety and a top-50 overall recruit in 2018, Battle was already a key player for the Tide as a redshirt freshman in a somewhat limited role, but became one of the fixtures in 2020, when he recorded 66 total tackles, three of them for loss, four PBUs and a pick-six. He improved on those totals as a junior, with 85 total stops, three picks (two taken back the distance) and three more PBUs. Those numbers slightly decreased last season, but he still made first-team All-SEC in back-to-back years.
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+ Turned himself into the kind of versatile piece in the secondary the Crimson Tide lost to the draft a couple of years ago in Xavier McKinney – was challenged with basically every type of coverage and a variety of rules under Nick Saban and Pete Golding
+ Considerably increased his PFF grade in each of the first three seasons there, with a tiny dip last year, as one of the most consistent DBs in the country since entering the starting lineup late in his freshman season
+ Reliable deep middle safety, not allowing pass concepts to make him void his space prematurely
+ Easy in the way he gains ground vertically and diagonally, showcasing well-coordinated footwork whilst processing information
+ Won’t overreact to sudden breaks, when he’s playing in-between routes in zone
+ Does a great job when asked to bracket receivers or if that’s what the coverage turns into, with just a single threat to his side, playing to his leverage, anticipating the break and cutting off space
+ When he’s buzzing down in cover-three or as a robber, Battle does a great job of shutting down crossers instantly, as the ball is caught
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+ His understanding for opponents and anticipation of routes have made him an effective man-defender in the slot
+ Was capped over the slot receivers to replace slot blitzers regularly and understands that the ball would come out quickly, driving hard on that first break and jarring the ball loose on multiple occasions, or at least sling guys to the ground for no YAC on quick in-breakers
+ Does a great job deciphering who he ultimately gets matched up with on cross-releases and not get caught out of position as he has to lock into his man
+ Showcases excellent ball-skills, to track down the field, position his body and play it at the highest point
+ Had a highly impressive pick-six against Mississippi State in 2021, when they were in a three-deep safety look and their opponents were running a scissors concept, where Battle let the post be picked up by one of his teammates and he undercut the corner route at the sideline; And he actually ended that game with another pick in cover-two, on a prayer thrown up to a fade route
+ For his career, his NFL passer rating responsible for of 72.9 is really solid
+ Often time became the add-on blitzer when somebody motioned in-line or the backfield and came off the edge with some heat; Uses his hands well to get around the back in protection typically
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+ Consistently works the alley with a good balance between urgency and control
+ Recognizes when the nickel jumps inside or is pinned there and he needs to widen his angle to position himself with outside leverage
+ Overall his angles from depth are chosen to not put his defenses in bad positions, as you don’t see him get outraced and he frequently “covers” for his buddies
+ You love what Battle brings to the table rotating down as a robbebuzz defender and using that to his advantage, in terms of shutting down run plays
+ Has the size to be a plus run defender inside the box or from the slot, while using his hands well to not let blockers get into his frame and keep vision on the ball
+ You see Battle bang into tight-ends and slot receivers trying to cave him in and keep his pads clean
+ Maintains active feet and can reduce the shoulder to elude blockers inside the box, plus then he’s not just a drag-down tackler, bringing his hips and feet along to drive through contact
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– Gets sucked in a little too much on play-action and is left chasing routes being hit on the move because of it
– Floats back in deep zone coverage considerably, to where he’s already bailing before even really being able to decipher the pass concept and then he can’t really make an impact when the ball is thrown in front of him
– Closer to average in his range (4.55 in the 40), as somebody who doesn’t project to be an impact center-fielder
– Doesn’t bring a lot of thump initiating contact with blockers or the ball-carrier to create anything beyond stalemates, not playing up to his frame
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I understand the love for Alabama teammate Brian Branch and there’s nothing that really jumps off the screen with Battle, but I don’t think he’s getting the credit he deserves. He was an extremely reliable starter under one of the most demanding coaching staffs in the country, being tasked with just about any assignment in the book. To me would fit best in a split-safety based system, where he can break on routes in quarters, position himself between receivers in cover-two and rotate down, with the peripheral vision to pick up targets. If he’s asked to play extended stretches as a deep middle safety or legitimately play man-coverage on speedy receivers in the slot without that in-built cushion, I’m a bit more worried about him. However, especially in today’s world, finding a complete player on the back-end like this with his kind of football IQ is worthy of a mid-day two selection, I believe.
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5. Jartavius Martin, Illinois

5’11”, 195 pounds; RS SR
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A three-star recruit in 2018, Martin started eight of ten games at corner as a true freshman, before moving to safety midway through year two (12 games, five starts). These last two seasons he’s been a full-time starter for the Illini at STAR spot (primarily a nickel), combining for 120 total tackles, 6.5 of those for loss, two forced fumbles, four interceptions and 17 more passes broken up.
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+ Has been able to fulfill an extremely diverse role – logged over 200 snaps at outside corner, slot, box safety and deep safety
+ Was regularly asked to sink towards the deep half in cover-two from his nickel alignment, where he fluidly flips his hips around towards the receiver he isn’t originally turned to
+ When playing two-deep and having to open with inside fade routes, the ability to turn for the ball with his hips towards the middle, yet still flip around and play through the hands of the intended target is special
+ Provides the range to line up at center-field and float over the top of routes by the single receiver when Illinois blitzed their boundary corner, to not leave them vulnerable
+ On 54 targets this past season, he only surrendered 24 completions for 309 yards and no touchdowns, while intercepting two passes
+ Made several key plays on the ball last season, with 15 forced incompletions (second-most among safeties), three picks and a couple of forced fumbles
+ Had an awesome interception against a slot fade route versus Minnesota last season, where he got his head around late and showed tremendously quickly hand-eye coordination to haul it in
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+ Played a ton of off-man coverage for the Illini, where his ability to anticipate routes and cut off the path for receivers was excellent
+ Shows great patience, to stay square and not flip his prematurely, while keeping his eyes locked on the receiver’s hips across from him pushing downhill
+ Has the long speed to stay stride-for-stride with slot fade routes on numerous occasions
+ Great explosion out of flat-footed breaks, to squat on quick-breaking routes and not get surrender easy completions – Short outs and flat routes are basically off the table against him as viable receiving options
+ Doesn’t get antsy against guys trying to throw extensive footwork and hesitation releases at him
+ Yet if receivers hesitate off the line and then try to take off vertically, his closing burst allows him get back into phase if there’s a little separation initially
+ You rarely see him lose contact against crossing receivers, even when he’s playing with outside leverage and has to take that little shuffle-step inside as he sees his guy tilt that way
+ Held opposing receivers to just 4.0 yards after the catch on average since 2020
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+ Continues to fight through blocks, in order to not be shielded by guys in the slot and allow the ball to get out wide
+ Not afraid to run into offensive tackles and try to funnel the ball inside, when blitzed off the edge (on early downs)
+ From limited tape on Martin as a legit single-high free safety, you see him work upfield in controlled fashion and not get caught out of position, as he sees the back cut out towards the sideline – earned an elite PFF run defense grade in 2022 (91.0)
+ Has been a physical and uber-reliable tackler for the Illini, only missing seven of 127 attempts these last two years combined
+ Consistently is able to gather himself and at least clutch one leg of the ball-carrier, to not let that guy get away, and does a nice job of swiping down stiff-arm attempts and securing tackles out on the perimeter
+ You see Martin outrace fellow DBs – among a very fast secondary – on multiple occasions, providing chase speed across the field
+ The 44-inch vertical jump he posted at the combine ties him for fourth-best all-time for any position and he also led the safety group with an 11’1” broad jump, along running a 4.46 in the 40; During the on-field workout, he covered good ground, changed direction effectively with rapid foot-fire and made multiple nice high-point grabs
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– Frequently gets foot-faked with a little English at the top of routes and seems to get his own feet stuck in the mud momentarily
– Can get a little too enamored with wanting to look back at the quarterback when he thinks he’s in control of the routes and loses touch
– Due to the limited experience in deep coverage, Martin’s ability to find the right balance of staying on top and squeezing down windows is still a work in progress
– Not the quickest reaction skills against play-action, IDing nearby targets
– With his lankier build, Martin not only could be vulnerable to push-offs by power slot receivers or maybe even when asked to cover tight-ends, but you also see him take the worse off head-on contact with running backs
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If you missed out on Alabama’s Brian Branch and Texas A&M’s Antonio Johnson, “Quan” Martin is a very attractive alternative some time later on day. Considering the absurd testing numbers he put up at the combine, you probably won’t be able to wait for too much longer however. In terms of man-coverage in the slot and tackling, you won’t find much cleaner tape out there. I want to see him improve his foot activity against receivers who can give him something a little extra at the break point and play stronger against big bodies down the field, but that’s about it. The question to me is what his role may look like beyond that. Martin shows the tools in terms of explosiveness and ball-tracking to grow into a viable single-high safety option, but he doesn’t have a ton of quality tape to judge him on that being a long-term landing spot. That bumps him down just a little bit from the very top of the class, but I think he ultimately goes in the second round.
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6. Chris Smith, Georgia

5’11”, 190 pounds; RS SR
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A four-star recruit in 2018, Smith had to wait his turn with the Bulldogs, due to all the great safeties they’ve had there during the Kirby Smart era, with his first five starts coming in 2020. The following season – during the Bulldogs championship run – he started 11 of 12 games, recording 34 combined tackles, four PBUs and three interceptions (with one returned to the house). Last season he picked off three more passes and broke up five, along with career-highs in tackles (61) and TFLs (five), along with a fumble forced and recovered each, on his way to first-team All-SEC and All-American honors, along with another Natty.
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+ Started 31 games for the dominant defense in college football, whilst filling a multitude of roles in a very detailed coverage scheme
+ High-level range and instincts as a center-fielding free safety, where he rarely moves himself off the middle of the field without a legitimate threat, to be able to play top-down and have favorable angles
+ When they’re in zone shells, Smith plays extremely well to his leverage and shows a tremendous understanding for spacing
+ In split-safety looks, he understands when slot receiver are slightly stemming outside and anticipates breaks across his face are coming, to where he can jump dig/shallow post routes
+ Consistently identifies the biggest threat playing deep and floats that way to bracket that target
+ Displays active eyes and good feel for positioning himself between targets when coming down as a rat/robber
+ Overall, arrives at the target on time and with the force to jar balls loose
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+ Doesn’t seem uncomfortable matching up with then number two or three receiver in trips when they blitz the defender over that guy, as he’s playing 15 yards deep, positioning himself according to the stem
+ Shows good patience as a slot defender when he’s lined up there pre-snap, leveraging his man towards the deep coverage and slowly giving ground, whilst being ready to rapidly redirect to breaks and has the juice to attach to the hip-pocket of guys on in-breakers
+ In general, the way he anticipates routes and reads the hips of receivers when put in man situations is definitely better than you’d expect from somebody playing deep safety as much as he did
+ Displays the snappy hips to slightly by tilted towards his guy pushing off the line yet be right there to undercut routes intended to go across his face
+ Has the play strength to not get knocked off by bigger bodies, who try to run into him and create separation that way
+ Really attacks the catch-point and is able to dislodge receivers from the ball when he has a runway on multiple occasions
+ Over the past two seasons, he allowed 38 of 60 targets his way to be completed, for just 341 yards and two touchdowns, compared to his six interceptions
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+ Has that quality I’ve raved about with Georgia safety multiple teams before, where he comes downhill from depth and just accelerate into contact on plays out towards the perimeter
+ Yet he understands how aggressive he can be depending on which press-snap look they’re in and where he’s aligned
+ From two-high alignments, he consistently stays in position to not get beat out to the sideline and tracking the near-hip of the ball-carrier
+ Regularly is able to shoot his hips through and stop receivers on sweeps right there on the spot
+ Very effective as a tackler in space, putting his face-mask into the frame and driving his legs through contact
+ Especially on those deeper in-breaking routes when he has to come up, you rarely see guys be able to cross his face and rip off big gains
+ Had three huge plays in the 2022 season-opener at Oregon, where he flew up in run support from depth to stop the back cold, then had an awesome interception off Bo Nix and finally dislodging the ball on a deep shot, where the receiver seemed wide open originally, with him getting over there as the single-high safety
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– Showing up at combine weighing 192 pounds and then running a 4.62 in the 40 is rough for his draft stock
– The lack of size does show up when he’s coming downhill and someone makes him go airborne as they get hands on him from the side
– With how much of his man-coverage snaps were spent in outside leverage, funneling receivers to the deep middle safety, Smith didn’t have to fear getting beat deep by himself, yet from limited instances, you can question if he has that extra gear to keep up with true speedsters one-on-one
– Tends to drift too deep in two-high shells because he may not fully trust his speed and ends up covering grass at times
– You love the aggressive mindset, but he does come in too hot as a tackler at times and missed 11 attempts this past season (15.1% miss rate)
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After stepping into the starting lineup for Georgia’s defense in 2021 due to an injury to one of their transfers at the position, Smith turned himself into a key piece to winning back-to-back championships with his play down the stretch that year and this past season. He comes very much in the mold of the last few guys we’ve seen enter the draft from that program, with some concerns about frame plus speed. I definitely believe he plays faster than he times and this kind of reminds you of what happened a couple of years ago with former teammate Richard LeCounte II, whose GPS data would show how much better he moved in actual game situations, in relation to other players. I do question if the NFL believes his range isn’t quite there to be trusted as a center-fielder and that the lack of size could create some matchup issues, but this is one of the most complete safeties and best football players in this class. If he can become a little more reliable as a tackler, he can be a starter early on and stick around for several years. That’s worthy of a mid-day two pick in my book.
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7. Jammie Robinson, Florida State

5’11”, 195 pounds; RS JR
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A top-500 overall recruit for South Carolina in 2019, Robinson immediately became a contributor for the Gamecocks, with 135 tackles, two INTs and eight PBUs over his first two years. He decided to transfer to FSU ahead of 2021, when he reached career-highs in tackles (84), TFLs (seven) and picks (four), making him a first-team All-ACC selection. He repeated those honors last year, with 99 total stops, five for loss, an interception and five PBUs.
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+ This guy plays with the energy and demeanor I love to see from any safety; Plus he has quality experience on punt and kick coverage, along with the demeanor to excel in that area
+ His urgency to charge up the alley is top-tier – I’ve seen him be lined up 12 yards deep and shoot through the legs of the back on power runs bounced wide for no gain
+ You can put him in the box and he’ll create negative plays in the run-game by aggressively shooting through the C-gap
+ Defeats blockers in the slot with quick hands and funnels the ball back inside regularly, yet I’ve also seen him put receivers on their butts who try to shield him on screens
+ Won’t shy away from putting his body in the way of ball-carriers with a head of steam, after coming off his initial responsibility, and even if he takes the worst of those collisions, he at least manages to drag guys down as he gets run over
+ This guy is such an uber-reliable tackler, constantly just finding ways to bring the guy with the ball to the ground, whether he has to wrap, drag or lasso
+ Missed just 6.2% of his tackling attempts across the past two seasons (12 of 195 total)
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The rest of the analysis can be found here!

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8. Ji’Ayir Brown, Penn State

5’11”, 205 pounds; JR
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9. J.L. Skinner, Boise State

6’4”, 220 pounds; SR
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10. Anthony Johnson Jr., Iowa State

6’0”, 205 pounds; RS SR
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Just missed the cut:

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Ronnie Hickman, Ohio State

6’1″, 205 pounds; RS JR
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Quindell Johnson, Memphis

6’0”, 200 pounds; RS SR
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The next few names:

Daniel Scott (California), Jason Taylor II (Oklahoma State), Jordan Howden (Minnesota), Chamarri Conner (Virginia Tech), A.J. Finley (Ole Miss), Brandon Hill (Pittsburgh), Brandon Joseph (Notre Dame) & Trey Dean III (Florida)
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, please consider checking out the original piece and feel free to check out all my other video content here!
Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk