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2024.01.15 09:50 XGramatik We move past the US CPI and PPI releases and the market has become even more convinced that the Fed’s easing cycle starts in March, with a 25bp cut priced for every meeting from this starting point.
Yield curves are steepening (the US 2’s 30s curve is no longer inverted), driven by the short-end where US 2-year Treasury yields fell for six straight days, losing 23bp on the week. submitted by XGramatik to XGramatikInsights [link] [comments] US 5-year real rates (i.e. US 5-year Treasury adjusted for expected inflation over the coming 5 years) have printed new cycle lows and sit at the lowest yield since May ’23. Some have stated the case that the US CPI print gives the Fed less scope to ease in March. Perhaps…but when we take the components from CPI and PPI that feed into the core PCE calculation (released 27 Jan), and we’re looking at an estimate of c. 0.2% mom, which sees the 6-month annualised rate of core PCE around 2% - and given core PCE is what the Fed set policy to – bingo, we have a clear justification as to why the bond and rates market feels March is the starting point. The implied probability of the Fed cutting in March (h/t to my colleague Michael Brown for this chart) https://preview.redd.it/xxw9optohkcc1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=05a904cae256d33d50da207cd58f089b23164c7b Tuesday’s (Wed 03:00 AEDT) speech from Fed member Christopher Waller will be one of the key focal points this week, where recall he set off the rally in late November with definition on a timeline and a path to cut rates, which essentially started the Fed pivot and the year-end risk rally. With talk of an earlier start to QT tapering and lower relative US bond yields, it’s a surprise that the USD is holding in so well with the DXY tracking a sideways range of 102.70 to 102.10. On the week the GBPUSD was the best performer in G10, with price pushing 1.2800, while the BRL got spoils in the EM FX space. https://preview.redd.it/t0l3d8brhkcc1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=83c5dd50b9d34d1cda16dcb82c768ccccffd7eee Gold has seen somewhat of a renaissance against this backdrop though, where on the 4-hr chart price closed above the recent downtrend, where on the daily price closed above the 5-day EMA. A weak US retail sales could offer renewed life for gold bulls and see price target 2075. It's been a mixed picture in equity land, with much focus on the JPN225 gaining a massive 6.9% - although, the risk-to-reward trade-off suggests refraining from new longs and waiting for some of the heat to come out of the move. An RSI of 80 aside, 87% of stocks are above the 50-day MA, and 68% of stocks closed at a 4-week high. A sign of euphoria and a signal for contrarians or solid participation and therefore bullish? I favour the latter. While US earnings continue to trickle in and the US election process officially kicks off in Iowa, China takes centre stage once again with retail sales, Q4 GDP, and property sales. China/HK equity remains challenged, but the tape is turning, and shorts are seeing signs that we may be turning from a trend position to one of trading a consolidation, where range trading in the CHINAH, HK50 and CN50 may be the strategy. We’ll see but if the data comes in softer, or we don’t see the level of monetary policy easing that’s priced, then frustration will likely see renewed selling flows. The set-up in US equity indices look balanced with 2-week risk – the risk bulls will naturally want the US500 to clear 4800 and the NAS100 through 17k, but with options expiry across the VIX, index and single stock plays this week (schedule below), one questions if we see a higher volatility post expiration. An obvious consideration for one’s risk management. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate this week: US markets closed for MLK Day (Monday) – partial trade in futures. The markets anticipation for the start date for easing, and the magnitude of cuts priced into swaps https://preview.redd.it/mhz9cmdxhkcc1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=d40f810cf7c41e622f07387f3c6c5876f1870d63 China 1-year MLF rate (15 Jan 12:20 AEDT) – we should see the PBOC cut the Medium-Lending Facility by 10bp to 2.4% (from 2.5%), with a chance they cut by 15bp to 2.35%. Anything less than a 10bp cut could weigh on CHINAH, CN50 and HK50. We also remain on watch for a cut to China’s bank reserve ratio requirement (RRR) as well. UK employment and wages (16 Jan 18:00 AEDT) – on wages, the consensus is we see Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY moderate a touch to 6.8% (from 7.2%). The outcome will play into UK rates pricing, where the first 25bp cut is priced for May. GBPUSD seems to be finding good supply into 1.2800, so the GBP bulls will want to see a closing break here to add to longs. Favour EURGBP into 0.8560. China Q4 GDP (17 Jan 13:00) – the economist’s median estimate has Q4 GDP growing 1% QoQ and 5.2% YoY (from 4.9% in Q3) – GDP by its nature is a backwards-looking data point but given the lack of confidence international money managers have in investing in China, I think the outcome of the China GDP report could impact market volatility. China industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, property sales (17 Jan 13:00) – the market looks for these data points to come in at 4.5%, 2.9%, 8% and -9.5% respectively. Certainly, the market will be closely watching the property sales data for further evidence that sales are troughing. UK CPI (17 Jan 18:00 AEDT) – a potential vol event for GBP traders, so monitor exposures over the data point - the market sees headline CPI coming in at 3.8% yoy (from 3.9%) and core CPI at 4.9% (5.1%). GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility sits at 6.67% (the 17th percentile of the 12-month range), and pricing a -/+ 105-pip move from Friday’s closing level. US retail sales (18 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – the median consensus is we see sales growing 0.4% mom, with the ‘control group’ element at 0.2%. The market picks and chooses to run with this data point, but I think a mom decline – should it come - could impact sentiment and promote good USD sellers. Aussie employment report (18 Jan 11:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is we see 15k jobs created, with the u/E rate unchanged at 3.9%. Aussie interest rate futures price the June RBA meeting as the probable first cut, so this pricing may come into question, but it would take a move in the unemployment rate to do so. Japan national CPI (19 Jan 10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for JP headline CPI to moderate to 2.6% (from 2.8%) and core CPI to print 3.7% (3.8%). After last week’s -3% decline in real wages, and falling inflation in Japan, coming at a time when other G10 central are expected to start a cutting cycle, it hardly incentivises the BoJ to lift rates. Fed speakers – Waller (17/1 03:00 AEDT), Williams, Bostic, Daly Other factors that could affect market sentiment:US Corp earnings – It’s a quiet week on the US earnings front with c3% of the US500 market cap report - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley garner attention, while we see several regional banks out with numbers, so put the KRE ETF on the radar.US politics – On Monday we get the results from the Iowa Caucuses – Trump is almost certain to win the REP nomination, but could Nikki Haley gain some momentum to take into the New Hampshire Primary on 23 January? US options expiry – US equity index expiry (16 Jan), VIX options expiry (17 Jan), equity options expiry (19 Jan). |
2023.09.18 04:48 Austen11231923 Bingo results...
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2023.03.15 04:37 crazygrumpy AUD/USD looks set to regain 0.6700 despite mixed China data, PBOC inaction
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2020.12.30 12:10 Birdvvand Cindy An-al Po-rn Nj
2020.12.24 07:49 Oculusfluffy Avocado - Chapter 3 - By Oculus (with art by Carpdime)
AVOCADOA tribute to Carpdime’s AvocadoBy Oculus (with illustrations by Carpdime)Chapter Three: Promise (continued from Chapter 2 and The New Mummah ) Avocado's First Month “This morning we’re pleased to invite Melissa Momnes, the CEO and Founder of FoalCan Inc. Melissa is the Silicon Valley visionary behind the creation of FoalCan’s patented BioPrinter, which is currently heralded as a breakthrough in the field of bioengineered life-forms. “ The bright screen of the television illuminated the dim dormitory residence, as the light of the morning sun was slowly peeking into the room. The young man had just finished having breakfast and was now getting ready for classes. As he was about to give a presentation for his Business class, he had to dress a bit formally today. While he was wasting time with his necktie, little Avocado was busy staring at the screen. At this stage, he knew only two words: “Daddeh” and “miwkies”. The bright glow of the television, and the two human figures were fascinating, but were speaking in an alien language that was far too advanced for a fluffy mind, let alone a foal that was barely a month old. “What motivated the creation of this BioPrinter?” “Well, as you know, 3D printing biological constructs isn’t a foreign concept. Not too long ago, Hasbio was at the forefront of making custom-made bioengineered constructs, which they later marketed as ‘biotoys’.” Avocado viewed the blonde woman with fascination. He didn’t understand a single word she was saying, but she was wide-eyed, and had the nicest smile, with a good set of pearly white teeth. Even though he didn’t understand the interview, he was keenly interested in anything she was about to say. “Miss Momnes, you face criticism from biotoy rights groups like ABAP and AWFP regarding the distribution of your product, claiming that what you are doing is literal animal abuse. What do you have to say to that?” “Well, that depends on whether you see biotoys as animals. I don-” “Alright little buddy, I got to go class and get some learning done.” With remote in hand, the young man switched the television from displaying the local channel to the AV input. “Chirp! Daddeh! Chirp!” Avocado was surprised by the sudden appearance of the blue screen. Feeling a little dismayed, he kept chirping at our young man, wanting to see more of that nice lady speak. As he kept chirping, our young man went up to the television, with a shining disc in hand. Loading the compact disc into the player, he fiddled around with the remote, and then pressed “Play”. “Learn Alphabet with My Little Fluffies!” The happy cheering face of Applesauce could be seen on the screen, as she narrated the first letter. “A iz fow Appow!” ~ “You should get your fluffy to watch some videos.” It was a lunch break, two days ago. Our friend had tried to talk to the fluffy enthusiast he had met quite often previously, but ever since she started avoiding him, he had relied mostly on youtube videos for taking care of fluffies and tried to teach Avocado basic words manually. “What are you talking about?” “You bought a Foalcan, didn’t you? My little brother has one too. He’s been taking care of the little bugger quite well.” The response came from a classmate that our young man had befriended. They both shared the same business major and took the same classes. Coincidentally, they also lived at the same dorm. It seemed to be more than one person had seen the young man carry the hugtoy and pillow. Our young man felt a little ashamed about letting another guy know about this one secret. A part of him felt that his manhood was being put the test. As he remained silent, he kept playing with the plate of spaghetti he had before him, twirling the pasta with his fork. “Hey man, there’s nothing wrong with liking fluffies. I mean, you did watch the My Little Fluffy cartoon back in the day, didn’t you?” “Y-y-yeah,” our young man weakly stammers. “It was a good cartoon, wasn’t it? I still remember all the memes and jokes. I sometimes lol at the fact that, when they released the first generation of fluffies, I so badly wanted my parents to get me one.” “And did you?” Nougat, an abandoned foal that was rescued “Of course not,” laughs his friend, “despite what those suits and salesmen say, fluffies aren’t toys. They’re literally pets. I think my parents did the right thing at the time in not letting me have one – when the news came out about the abandoned fluffies from the first wave, and the trouble they were causing, the demand for them really dropped as there was an emphasis on adopting fluffies as opposed to buying them.” “Well, I heard the interviews from the founder of Foalcan, and she says foalcan fluffies are real biotoys since they’re made by the BioPrinter.” “What kind of toy do you know needs to eat, shit and sleep? Not to mention when they die, you can’t bring them back to life? It is not like a car, computer or phone that you can repair. Like, I know my little bro is a lot more responsible than me and loves animals, but me? Nah man, and my parents knew that when my pet cat ran away from me.” “That’s still awfully responsible of you to realize that you can’t take care of one.” “I think one should be responsible for anything they own. That’s what my folks taught me. Anyway, how long have you had your fluffy?” “About a month now, maybe more.” “Then the guy will be learning how to talk soon. Have you been speaking to him regularly?” “Yeah, I do. Been trying to teach my Avocado words and stuff.” “And you got classes bro. I don’t think you’ll have a lot of time to spend with your little fluffy.” “Then what are you suggesting?” “Well, ideally, fluffies are supposed to be watching FluffTV, which is how they get most of their education at home, but of course, we don’t have FluffTV in the dorms. But that doesn’t mean you can’t buy a bunch of videos from the nearby Fluffmart.” “I’ve been there. Piece of shit store didn’t even have a proper pet bed.” “I know the place you’re referring to. If you checked, they should be selling at least a Blu-Ray with every MLF lesson for fluffies.” “And that’s it? Just play the video, and the fluffy will learn?” “That’s a start, but you still got to talk to it regularly, at least when you get back from class. If you rely on the video entirely, they won’t really learn.” “That all still sounds like a hassle, having to get a specific video from a specific store. Can’t I just get my fluffy to watch Sesame Street and Barney and just call it a day?” “Ah ah,” interjected the friend, raising his right finger as he continued, “many people think that. But see, those shows are in English. Not in fluffspeak.” “I thought fluffies speak English, but with a lisp.” “It’s more complicated than that. It is like asking if a parrot actually comprehends the English words you teach it. Or why a cat uses a ‘meow’ to communicate with humans, when cats don’t use the same ‘meow’ to communicate with other cats.” “So fluffspeak is basically English, but for fluffies?” “Basically, yeah. Point is, they’re not going to learn well if you use Sesame Street or Reading Rainbow if it is in ‘our’ English. If you’re going to use those shows, you might as well find the Fluffspeak version – which does exist, by the way.” “How long will it take before I can talk to my little buddy?” “Now that’s where it gets interesting. Fluffy foals are able to talk within a month when you start teaching them, along with the video aids. However, like human toddlers, foals will forget things very quickly. Their mind is very young and their brains are still developing, and they do so at a rate faster than human babies. So, while they are able to talk, they may forget it after a while. Its why some people don’t start teaching their fluffies to talk until they reach about six months of age, while some don’t even teach them until they’ve reached maturity in their first year.” “If that’s the case, then maybe I shouldn’t teach my fluffy.” “Well, a foal that learns how to speak at an earlier age, whether it is from its human owner or its fluffy parents, will converse better than a foal or fluffy that learns how to speak much later. It may seem tedious but, if you keep at it now, it’ll benefit him.” ~ “Daddeh! Daddeh! Fwuffy wan miwkies!” Avocado had managed to learn his first sentence, and the young man could not help but be proud. The young man did not go through the videos that he saw on the blu-ray, but he assumed they did their job. Nonetheless he took the time to teach some basic concepts to Avocado. Stuff like ‘miwkies’, ‘nummies’ and “Ow!” A young foal trips (still from \"The Last Baby\") “Avo! Are you okay?!!” That Saturday evening, Avocado ran too fast and tripped. “Poor Avo, you had an owwie. You better rest.” “Babbeh hav owwiess….nu wan owwies…. Huu huu…” Over time, Avocado was able to understand concepts like ‘bwight time’ for morning, ‘sweepie time’ for night, ‘wittwe’ and ‘pwenty’ for different quantities, and so on. The more he taught Avocado, the more the young man remembered a time when he was playing with his own baby brother. He remembered how, when he was three, he was barely able to say certain words. However, by the time he was five, his little brother was able to converse quickly, as well as continuously scold and make fun of him. For an animal to reach this kind of conversational ability within such a short span of time was quite remarkable. Avocado, being a foal, had yet to learn how to be properly toilet trained, and thus, ended up doing his business all over the carboard playpen during the day. However, whenever he managed to do his business in the proper litter place, whether it was in the playpen or his pet bed, he was awarded with his favourite thing. “Huggies!” \"Mr Huggies\" As he could not properly hug his master, to him, getting his favourite toy felt like the closest thing. He called his hugtoy “Huggies” because he had no other fluffies to play or hug with, and the toy was the only thing he could truly hug. “Avo.” “Yes, daddeh?” “Avo, if you are a good fluffy, and you do your poopies in the litterbox, you will get Mr. Huggies. That is a promise.” “Pwomise?” “A promise. That means, you will do something.” Avocado thinks for a moment. “Wike, Awo pwomise to wub daddeh?” “Yes, Avo. That’s a promise. And if you promise to do your poopies in the litterbox, I’ll give you Mr. Huggies.” “Pwomise?” “Promise.” “Yay!” ~ “This isn’t acceptable.” The young man looked at his test he took. He saw the criticisms written in red ink all over his paper. “You didn’t elaborate on your points well enough.” Hearing the stern tone from his tutor, the only thing the young man could do was look down at the floor. ~ The young man was feeling dour when he entered his residence. Slumped on the chair, he was wondering what to do. “Daddeh!” Avocado peeped out of his playpen. Being a foal, it was a struggle for him to reach the top. However, with the sound of the opening door, he knew his owner was around, and would, naturally, carry him to the table. Partly to give him a quick bath, but also to talk to him and teach him some words. That didn’t happen today. “Daddeh?” Avocado’s tone became a bit more questioning, almost worried. “Daddeh? Iz daddeh otay?” “I’m okay, Avo.” The young man got out of his seat and walked up to Avocado. Avocado naturally greeted him with a smile but, when he saw the young man’s face, he could not help but see the red eyes, and the remnants of tears. Avocado, not knowing what to do, remained silent, as the young man gave Avocado his usual wash. However, as he placed Avocado on the table, he just couldn’t bring himself to talk to our little green foal. “Daddeh? Why daddeh hab saddies?” Our young man remained silent. He looked at the ground, and remembered the stern talk he got from his tutor. “Daddy is okay, Avo. It’s just, Daddy didn’t have a good day today.” “Avo nu wike saddies. Daddeh wan huggies?” “Sure.” As he bends down, he lets Avocado hug him. Avocado could feel a tear rolling down from his owner’s cheek. “Dun be saddies daddeh. Huggies wiww make heawt huwties gu away.” ~ “Yeah that test was a real son of a bitch. I barely passed it.” It was lunch break on a Thursday. The following day was going to be the last day of classes, before the students at the college would have a term break that would last two weeks. “Yeah, but I failed! And now I need to pass the final exam if I am going to get credit!” As the young man stared up at the ceiling, he carelessly said, “It is all Avocado’s fault. I’ve been spending too much time with him.” “Don’t you dare say that,” said his friend, in a rather serious tone. “What do you mean?” “Avocado’s your fluffy, right? It is not your pet’s fault if you spent too much time on him. He wouldn’t know better. And besides, you got to learn how to manage your time better. I mean, shit, did you even know that you could send your foal to a daycare?” The young man’s eyes perked up, as he heard that. “They have daycares?” “Yes, fluffy daycares. It is like a school, but for fluffies, especially foals. There’s actually quite a business for teaching fluffies, since most owners have busy lives, and the videos can only do so much.” “Shit man, why didn’t you tell me about that?” “Ah, but thing is – the daycare at the town near our university is still under renovation. Most of the people around here keep adult fluffies or send their foals to the neighbouring town which has a daycare. I thought you were managing your time well, which is why I didn't make the suggestion at first. But, if I were you, I’d send Avo to that daycare.” “I never been to that neighbouring town!” “Well, you got to send Avo somewhere, at least for a while. I mean, your studies do come first.” The young man pondered. Grabbing his smartphone, he did a few searches regarding his own hometown. Upon getting results he needed, he realized that he had one other option. “I think, I should pay my folks a visit during the break week.” ~ Little Avocado was a little bit confused. He had heard his owner come in, but, this time, he didn’t come to take him out of his pen. This time, he went straight for his phone. As his owner kept talking on the weird device, Avo could hear a female voice, one that was like the one he had heard just a week or so ago. Upon finishing the call, the young man went to collect Avocado. Unlike the previous day, when he was crying, he now had a big smile. “Avocado! Would you like to meet my mummah?” ~ Foal in a pet carrier Avocado had behaved himself well on the flight. Since the airport regulations considered fluffies to be animals for the sake of travel, he was placed in the rear. He was a little bit hesitant about being placed in a pet carrier but, he felt a calm with Mr. Huggies by his side. Following regulation, fluffies were placed with other fluffies, as it was well-known that exposure to other pets could pose potential emotional trauma. During the flight, Avocado observed the other fluffies. Some were adults, and some were foals like him. Almost of them were asleep. Looking through the carrier, he could see one foal, who was in a carrier opposite his, and looked very scared. Our little green foal, being the brave fluffy he was, tried to say hello. Blueberry “Hewwo!” ‘H-hi…” “Fwuffy am Awocado! Wut am fwen name?” The blue foal kept quiet at first. He then stuttered. “D-daddeh sez not to tawk to stwangews.” And for the rest of the flight, the blue foal kept quiet. Avocado, though bored, went back to playing with Mr Huggies. And after a while, he fell asleep. ~ “So this is Avocado?” “That’s him, mom.” “Well, I never looked after a fluffy before. But we did look after a cat and a dog before, and the neighbours do have fluffies. I guess we could look after him for the time being.” Avocado was on the floor. He was watching an episode of My Little Fluffy, one that the young man had selected on the Blu-Ray. The episode in question had to deal with the character of Party Pal having to say goodbye to her best friend, Lightning Fast, who was going to a school for Pegasus fluffies like her. Because the trip was going to be for a few months, Party would not be seeing Fast for a good long while. “Fwuffy wiww miss fwen,” cried Party. “Fast wiww miss fwen too. But Fast wiww weawn wotsa things at skool! An’, Fast wiww meet Party suun! Dats a pwomise!” “Pwomise?” “Pwomise.” And the two fluffies hugged, marking the end of the episode. In an interesting case of foresight, the writers of My Little Fluffy had prepared an episode that taught fluffies how to deal with friends or relatives going on a trip. As the episode ends, the young man sat down on the floor, beside Avocado. “Hey there little guy.” “Daddeh, iz daddeh gunna hab tu go?” Huh, the little bugger could pick things up really quickly. “Yes Avocado. Daddy has to go.” “Bu’… bu’ why?” “Daddy’s been a bad daddy. Daddy needs to get better and go to school. You too must go to school and learn to be a good fluffy.” “Otay.” Avocado, being the good fluffy that he was, held back his tears, as he said, “Fwuffy wiww miss you.” The young man laid his body, chest facing to the floor, and brought his face up. As he saw the small, guinea pig size of his foal, he said “Huggies?” “Huggies!” And Avocado wrapped his hooves around his owner’s face as much as he could. In the middle of the hug, Avocado asked the most important question of the moment. “Wiww Awocado see daddeh again?” “Yes Avocado. You will.” “Pwomise?” “I Promise.” Pastebin entry: https://pastebin.com/eTQPAtj6 |
2020.10.05 18:53 IdolA5Oct1 What you are looking for is..... (Link in the Desc.)4
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