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Lately bug-at kaayo akong pamati kay gabuwag mis akong uyab. Kanang buwag nga di unta ko ganahan pero kinahanglan para sa akong wellbeing. He really wasn’t treating me right. Kinahanglan na gyud tu iend. Wala kibaw akong friends sa mga gibuhat sa akong ex kay honestly, mauwaw ko sa fact nga I let someone treat me so badly. So wala jud koy naka sturya about everything jud.
A few days ago nagkita mi sa akong guy classmate to make a report. Di kaayo mi close pero naa siyay vibe nga kana bitawng guy friend nga masaligan. Bug-at na gyud kaayu tu kay nakabantay siya nga lawm na gyud akong mga sighs. So naka pahungaw ko gamay, naka chika2. Taas2 man pud among report. Hapon mi ga sugod until naabtan ug gabii until naabtan ug kadlawn. Nalingaw pud mi sige ug tabi jud.
Wa ko kibaw if sort of confession tu iyaha or just to make me feel better. Hayag2 na tu gamay pag take nako ug break sa pag himo sa report para mag charge sa laptop and ga duwa ug ML sa akong phone. While ga duwa ko ug ML, ni ingon siya nga naa daw time before nga crush ko niya. Dili ra pa gyud because of physical attributes. Naa daw koy substance, etc. Wala kaayo ko ka remember sa iya exact words. Murag ning katawa ra pud ko ato. Mas nag focus nalang ko sa ML. Kinsa man pud maka react ug tarong ana uy kung naay mu confess nimo while ga duwa kag ML? Pildihunon pa jud hahahaha. And again, ambot lang if he meant it kay wala gud mi tulog and kadlawn na tu. Okay ra pud kaayo nako if he didn’t mean it hahaha.
Na buntagan jud mi ug himo sa report. And ana ko niya nga ayaw lang sah ug uli kay mo drive pa siya nya walay tulog. Makuyawan pud ta simbako ug basin ma unsa. So ni offer ko niya nga mu nap sah sa ako unit. And so he did. I slept on the bed and he slept on the floor. After naka nap siya ni uli ra pud siya sa ila.
Ever since ato, wala na koy na feel nga bug-at nga pamati.
With my ex, I was always seeking for his validation and approval. He was the first person to make me feel insecure and ugly. Pero having my classmate listen to everything I’ve been through and tell me nga I deserve way better than that really made me feel better. With my ex I tried so hard to be enough for him. Pero sa uban taw nga wala ra ko ga effort to be something more than myself, more than enough na diay ko.
My classmate really made me realize nga I myself am enough. Kana nga butang kay usual ra kaayu nato madungog ug mabasa - nga we are enough. Pero lisod gyud diay iapply sa imong self if for so long kay you were stuck in a toxic relationship. Sometimes kinahanglan gyud diay ug help from someone else to tell you that you are enough. Hinuon, wala man pud koy share2 sa akong friends kay ma uwaw lagi ko. But for sure, mao pud ilaha iingon nako. Naka share ra gyud ko sa ako classmate ato nga time kay kahilakon na kos ka bug-at.
Na bilib pud ko niya kay wala gyud siya ning try to do anything with me. Natulog ra gyud siya sa floor. Naka mata pa gani kos iyang hagok. Kung akong ex pa to, for sure he would have tried to do something even if it’s with someone nga di niya uyab. I would know.
Anyway, di man nako siya type. Wala pud ko plano mu enter into any relationship or char2 kay unfair sa tanan involved. I believe nga before entering into another relationship, iheal sah gyud nimo imohang self first. Otherwise, ang unresolved pain ma dala ra nimo sa next relationship. No one deserves to be a rebound pud. I made that clear to him pud. Nag take siya ug pic namo to document it, ana siya di lang niya ipost para walay sungog2 from others. So IF (i dont want to assume) he was trying to make a move, I’m sure that it was clear to him that it’s a no from me.
Deep inside, I know i still love my ex. Despite everything he did, love gihapon nako siya. Pero di na ko makig balik kay bugo na jud kaayu ko kung balikan pa nako. Although still, unloving someone is not an easy task. One step at a time lang gyud sa pag heal. I know that I will fully heal eventually.
Na touch lang gyud ko sa kindness sa akong classmate. Dako kaayog tabang sa pag balik sa akong self confidence and sa akong healing in general ang kato nga time. I don’t want to tell him this pud kay mag assume unya siya nga ganahan ko niya. Medyo feelingon baya tu. Di pud ko ganahan mu share sa ako friends kay ma abot unya niya kay gamay ra baya among circle. So ipahungaw nalang diri.
Salamat, again! (Ug kung maabot man gani ni nimo, ayaw nalang pud ug talk nako about ani pls hahaha)
Pertama-tama, i wanna say that i am grateful that i have a loving parents. Ya, orang tua gua gak sempurna sama seperti manusia pada umumnya, banyak kok salahnya, tapi gw termasuk orang yg mikir klo orang tua udah melakukan yg terbaik yg mereka bisa, anggap produk terbaik bagi generasi mereka. Gua bisa liat dari cerita² mereka dan sepengamatan gua sendiri sih dibanding adek kakaknya dan generasi sebelumnya/orang tua mereka, merekalah yg gw liat paling baik atau at least termasuk yg paling baik. Tahun ini mereka 50 tahun. Banyak mungkin yg nganggep 50 tahun ga begitu tua, dan iya sih dulu pun pas gw masuk kelas 1 SMP bahkan ada yg orang tuanya udh 50an. Tapi ngeliat fisik mereka, it hurts. Mereka juga kayak ga seriang dan energik kayak let's say 7 tahun lalu. Gua ngeliat foto-foto nyokap gua di FB dari 7-10+ tahun lalu kayak damn, keliatan banget banyak perubahan fisiknya khususnya di muka, dan banyak juga foto² mereka keliatan genuinely happy (well, same as me, i was much happier back then too).
Idk gua tau manusia itu makhluk fana yg ga akan selamanya ada di dunia ini, tapi inget tahun 2020-2021an pada saat kakek dan uwa (abangnya ayah) meninggal dan anaknya ini seumuran sama gua, gw sekarang jadi semakin inget bahwa orang tua kita bisa meninggal kapan aja, kita gak tau. It doesn't help that tahun 2022-2023 ada berita di grup kelas kayak 3-4 anak, orang tuanya meninggal, it hits me more.
2 tahun terakhir hingga sekarang, bokap gw udah ada masalah di prostatnya, rabu kemaren klo ga salah beliau berobat ke rumah sakit saat gw baru berangkat ke kos yg udah di provinsi lain. I know my father, he's a crazy hardworking man, sama kayak nyokap gua juga, keduanya gua perhatiin suka kurang tidur karena kerjaan mereka. Belum lagi dua sisi keluarga punya riwayat penyakit jantung. I just can't imagine living without them in this world.
Halo komodos, gw dari dulu pernah kepikiran kek buat cerita dikit gt disini, gw 20 (M), tapi takut kalo cerita gada hasil apa apa. Gw sangat memandang diri gw rendah dibanding semua org bahkan adek sendiri. Gw ada masalah personal dengan diri gw dan gw ngerasa gw hipokrit karena gw bisa treat others fine or even better but not myself. I see myself as a tool, just give me a bit of maintenance (a bit of attention or being included), and i'll do everything to you.
A little background, gw dibesarin dengan didik kasar sama bokap and it works, tapi entah kenapa belakangan ini gw merasa kalau yg diucapkan oleh ortu gw itu kadang ada yg personal ada yg emotional dump, dan kadang gw merasa sakit hati kalo di ucapin yang memang tidak seharusnya diucapin gt. Bokap gw sih yang biasanya gitu, cuma gw gapapa lah ga mempermasalahkannya, mungkin beliau lagi capek or somewhat lagi ada masalah. Gw ama bokap ga terlalu deket as a result (gw takut sampe skrg ama beliau, tapi masih bisa kalo sekedar komunikasi but not heart to heart, just man to man). Gw dipaksa terus buat ngomong ama bokap kek ngomong apa aja, yang dimana gw gabisa karena gw emg ada luka batin dari kecil buat selalu nerima rant nya dia unconditionally or even get a bit of physical abuse, which im fine cause what could i do. Selalu aja bokap itu ngomongin tentang hubungan emosional but at the same time beliau ngomong kalo anak itu yang ngerti orang tua, bukan sebaliknya. Bokap gw emang egonya besar kalo udah ranah personal, jadi anggep aja ngerawat gw itu out of responsibility, but there is almost no love carried, which is different compared to my sister. Gw gapernah dengki sama siapa siapa di rumah walau udah di perlakukan se kocak itu, soalnya gw emang dikasi tau sama nyokap kandung gw sebelum meninggal buat tetep jadi orang baik, jangan besar egonya, sama tetep inget sama semua kebaikan orang. Gw sendiri emg tipikalnya yang pasrah dan ngalah terus karena yaaa dari kecil emg disuruh ngalah terus mau aku bener ato salah wkwkw. Itulah kenapa gw merasa kalo gw ini gada valuenya samsek, dipandang rendah, dan gapernah dianggap "ingin jadi dewasa", karena bokap gw selalu ngomongin itu ke gw apalagi kalo beliau ada rasa jengkel gatau kenapa tb tb gw targetnya, ya intinya gw jadi target kalo mau di kasarin apa aja bentuknya, dan ntar abis biasa lagi gada maafan gt kek yodah langsung aja ngomong ke gw kek gada perasaan bersalah wkwkw.
Jadi, ceritanya adalah dari akhir januari (2 hari terakhir januari) rumah tangga bokap gw mulai kacau, bener bener yg pertama kali bikin gw ketakutan buat kerumah, singkat cerita nyokap tiri mulai kek orang kesetanan, dan gw yang jadi target marahannya selain ke bokap gw, entah deh gw ada salah apa sama beliau tapi gw gapernah yang namanya ngerugiin orang dari segi apapun, yah mungkin nyokap tiri lagi cape ato gimana tapi ini berlangsuung sampe skrg boi wkwkw, gw disini juga posisi sahabat gw keknya nge cut off gw gatau kenapa (dari 20 jan), dan gw bener bener merasa messed up yang baru yang sama sekali belom pernah gw rasain, kek beneran jatuh yang sukar banget bangkitnya, dan gw sempet ngerasa kalo ini bom waktu sampe gw kelar kuliah terus dpet kerjaan baru di kick gw dari rumah wkwk. Inti dari permasalahan di keluarga gw itu sebenernya gw gatau karena nyokap tiri gw emang gajelas marah" nya, tapi dari apa yg gw dapat karena itu semua rant isinya repetitif semua, itu karena adanya ketidakadilan dalam keluarga gw.... which is actually nonexistent because my father did alot for our family??? Nah terus ini ada yg lucu lagi, kan nyokap tiri gw marah marah lagi gatau lah kenapa, tiba tiba nyuruh bokap gw (bokap gw 20 taun lebih tua btw, so age gap nya gede wkwk) buat kumpulin sekeluarga di meja makan, gw lgsg telp adek kandung gw yg lagi nugas di luar kali ini darurat besar, nah akhirnya sampe rumah, taunya pas sampe rumah dikasi tau kalo gw ama adek gw tuh anak adopsi, tapi pas ngucapinnya ke gw, gw itu anak pungut diambil dari jembatan, terus ngaata ngatain lah nyokap asli gw mandul ato gmn, dan gw kaget lah kek kok bisa ngomong kek gt wkwk, ya gw sih emang dari 6 taun pernah mikir gw ini anak pungut ato bukan ya soalnya gw kek di treat beda sama adek gw cuma yodahlah bomat (iya gw belajar buat bomat dari kecil krn gapernah dibanggakan samsek wkwkw). Nah disitu gw kabur dari rumah sehari aja ketemuan ama temen gw yg kebetulan emang lucu keluarganya, ya saran yg gw dapet abis 4 jam curhat nonstop cuma suruh bodoamat, itu dosa mereka bukan dosa gw, gw gatau ya ges soalnya gw emang baru baru ini kembali beribadah, ya alasan awalnya karena permasalahan di keluarga + di cut off ama sahabat gw. Intinya atmosfir di rumah suram, gw di kos temen gw yg ala kadarnya bisa tidur pulas dibanding di rumah bokap yang beda jauh kondisinya sama kos kos an, yaa di rumah gw bisa tidur tp ga istirahat gt deh wkwkw.
Kalau tentang sahabat gw (21 F), gw udah sahabatan ama dia selama 5 tahun lamanya dari sma, yah baru tahun kemarin si kami jadi deket lagi karena gw curhat tentang kuliah gw yg kacau balau nilainya krn keberatan kuliah waktu itu, dan sempet suicidal, tapi abis semua percakapan panjang itu dia setuju untuk bantu gw dan yap nilai gw selama kuliah bener bener melejit, gw bener bener bisa ber ekspresi se bebas itu, bener bener ga takut sama yang namanya orang asing, dan yaaaa bisa jadi makhluk sosial yg fungsional wkwk. Kita deket, gw confess ke dia, tapi gw ga nembak dia, karena gw dari awal gada intensi buat dapetin dia, ya confess kan ga selalu tentang suka ato cinta gt kan ya wkwk, gw confess aja ke dia sebetapa nyaman dan bahagianya gw berada disampingnya etc., yang dimana awalnya dia yg confess kalo dia menggantungkan kebahagian dia di gw, and the story goes on untill december last year dimana dia mulai capek ama kerjaan dia di organisasi and yeah she decided to be bitter towards everyone, dan dia ilfeel sama gw as a result, tapi gw ga masalahin sih, pas ketemu dia abis event apa gt, gw tanyain kenapa, ada apa, dll in simple terms, dia takut ama gw, tapi gtw kenapa, tepat di ujuung desember dia cerita kalo dia bersalah banyak ama gw karena ya katanya gw menganggap ini kek hal yang wajar, memberi dia waktu dan ruang yang cukup besar menurut dia, dan rela jadi punching bag dia dengan cara di diemin selama hampir 2 bulan wkwkw. Gw ga ngerasa kek itu beban sih awalnya, soalnya ya bro kita udah besar santai aja kali. Memasuki januari kita nongki kan, disitu gw nangis di dia karena gw capek ama kondisi rumah gw waktu itu. Yah diperjalanan pulang dia ngomong kalo gw orangnya tulus, gw yang gapernah nganggep gw sendiri orang baik, tulus, ato apalah itu, kaget lah, intinya ya gw makasih banyak sama sahabat gw satu ini karena bener bener bisa bantu gw nge revive diri gw yang sengaja gw tinggal. Namun semenjak dirinya magang, di minggu terakhir dia magang gw curhat lah ke doi soal masalah dirumah, ga semuanya sih tapi intinya gt, dan dia minta maaf karena gada buat gw kan, gw gapapa karena emang fokusin magang aja biar hasilnya bagus, dan beberapa hari setelahnya gw curhat lagi, but idk i think this time she's mad or something like that to me, she never replied to my text ever from last month. And no, i dont bother her like in the way i need her to help me, i just told her that my day went this and that and yeah, something you could either reply or not and no effect would grow on it. Gw merasa kek gw salah apa yak yang bikin dia pengen cut off gw, soalnya terkahir kali dia silent treatment ke gw, gw merasa salah, taunya dia yg maaf karena bukan gw yg salah gt, yah you guys got the glimpse lah. Gw merasa kek ini downfall of our friendship, and i feel like i ruined everything again for the idk howmany times. To be honest gw ngerasa kalo gw tersakiti sama ekspektasi gw, bukan karena dianya. Yaaa sejak kemaren februari pertengahan dia gapernah ngabarin, sok cerita, ato apalah, well idk if it's because of me or something, but i do hope that she would return one day, with a whole new story.
Nah, gw sekarang itu merasa capek ama semua, pengen curhat dan didengerin, yang dimana biasanya sahabat gw ada buat gw curhat dan sebaliknya. Gw bener bener ngerasa sendiri, walau gw udah doa tiap abis sholat, well intinya gw kesepian dan gw rasanya itu pengeeen banget cerita dan disambung dengan ceritanya lawan bicara, yaa saling cerewet dengan interest masing masing gt lah like how i used to do with my buddy, but now am all alone like idk man, it just feels alone.
Gw gapernah punya kesempatan untuk ngeluh sebesarnya dan diterima, marah sebesarnya dan diterima, serta berbeda pendapat dan diterima. Gw selama idup selalu dibebani sama perasaan bersalah, kurang dan tidak pede, cuma pas gw bersama sahabat gw dimanapun, gw ngerasa gw bisa jadi diri gw sepenuh potensial gw (contoh kecil nilai 2 semester kemarin meningkat pesat sampe gw heran). Gapernah gw mandang gw itu apalah walau beberapa temen gw muji gw karena hard skill ama soft skill gw, yang dimana gw gapernah mandang itu kek sesuatu yang pantas untuk di puji wkwk.
Gitu doang sih ges a little rant of me and my life, if you guys have any suggestion for me or any advice, im all ears. Maaf ya kalo cerita gw ga jelas ato gimana, you could ask for details :D
Lifetime - Staked:
769.4u, Profit/Loss:
+43.36u, ROI:
5.64%, Parlay Suggestions:
153-51 Dog of the Week:
11-10 2024 - Staked:
122.3u, Profit/Loss:
10u, ROI:
8.18% I’ve had lots of people DM’ing me and engaging with the content recently, which is amazing and really rewarding. It’s so easy to enjoy this stuff when events like UFC 299 are the talking point, but sometimes it’s god awful Apex cards, and sometimes I need a bit more motivation. If you’d like to keep me motivated, or you wanted to say thank you for any help I may have given in cashing a bet, you can Buy Me a Coffee here:
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/SideswipeMMA As always, scroll down for
UFC Vegas 88 Breakdowns. The following is just a recap of last event’s results.
UFC 299 (PREVIOUS CARD) Staked:
18u Profit/Loss:
+7.07u ROI:
39.28% Parlay Suggestions:
2-1 Dog of the Week: Michal Oleksiejczuk ❌ (annoying, as I picked Blaydes originally but then it went -110)
I got some really sexy CLV on the UFC 299 card. Did my damn job this week! And the fighters I bet certainly did their damn jobs too! Nice to get back to winning ways after a disastrous week on the Gaziev event. Really appreciated all those messages of support after a poor result, I’m glad I managed to get back in the win column and pay back all the belief you guys seem to have in me. Also happened to pay it back by giving out a couple of winning parlays in my DMs haha. Only point of frustration for me was that I was going to do a Trixie of Wood Decision/JDM KO/Phillips Decision but didn’t have time. That would have been some nice added money. Oh well.
Here’s some live thoughts on each bet:
✅ 3u
Sean O’Malley to Win at -188 (won +1.59u)
Haven’t watched the fight yet but I hear it was a masterclass by O’Malley. Like I said, the devil is in the details and his evasiveness is elite. Chito can’t finish what he can’t hit.
❌ 3u
Benoit St. Denis to Win at -137
Disappointed about this one, given the number I got was so good. I think I broke the fight down relatively well, as BSD did win 90% of the fight, and I think he still was the side to be on at -135. Dustin’s obsession with suicide guillotines was a narrative I referred to and that played directly into BSD's hands, as expected. Hell of a KO though by Dustin, I was surprised he caught him with the one punch KO. I knew Dustin would have his moments on the feet for sure, but trusted BSD's to take those kind of shots. Oh well, it was fun to get involved in such a divisive fight. Congrats to those who backed Dustin.
✅ 4u
Mateusz Gamrot to Win at -225 (won +1.76u) ✅ 2u
Mateusz Gamrot & Vitor Petrino to Win at -105 (won +1.9u)
Gamrot doing what Gamrot does best. Did get a bit worried after the early damage, and actually expected him to have more top control success than he did…but a win is a win and I waited three months for that one to cash.
✅ 2u
Curtis Blaydes to Win at +100 (won +2u)
Haha, loved watching this one land. It was a weird finish, for sure, but I was really happy with the way Curtis was defending the grappling of Almeida to set that moment up for himself, so I think it was a good bet overall.
✅ 2u
Kyler Phillips to Win by Decision at +100 (won +2u)
God damn Kyler looked great there. That opening round was one of the best five-minute performances I think I’ve ever seen. He really was in The Matrix. I also said in my breakdown that Munhoz has one of the best chins in MMA history, and he showed it there. Nice bet, really glad I went two units with it as usually I'm a bit gunshy with props.
❌ 1u
Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win at +130
Hella power from Michel Pereira. That was always the danger and he hit that path to victory perfectly. This was a terrible bet, but really happy I got the money management right here to negate the loss from being too disasterous.
✅ 1u
Joanne Wood – Decision Only at +200 (won +2u)
Love seeing JoJo ride off into the sunset with a win. Love cashing on her in her last fight. The Sideswipe WMMA party continues. Anyone who bet Moroz at that price, give your head a wobble.
UFC Vegas 88 More UFC Apex, more fat heavyweights. I just can’t wait. I’ve ranted about this one before, no point going through it again.
Let’s just get this over with.
Tai Tuivasa v Marcin Tybura Binary fight. Tuivasa wants to bang, Tybura wants to grapple. Both men are equally weak to their opponents’ strength that this one is a very obvious 50/50 kind of thing. You could argue that Tuivasa’s path is much easier to hit, given that all fights start standing and all he needs is one punch, but Tybura has been in that kind of spot many times and has found a way to make it work in a lot of them.
There’s not much more to say, the betting line is rightly close. There’s no point thinking anymore about this one, leave it alone and look elsewhere on the card. It’s not a fight where you can get a big enough edge for there to be value.
How I line this fight: Tai Tuivasa -110 (52%), Marcin Tybura +110 (48%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Kennedy Nzechukwu v Ovince St Preux I’m currently writing this whilst watching the Gaziev v Rozenstruik card in the background, so the -900 Javid Basharat loss is still very fresh in my memory. I initially had a 3u bet on both Javid and Kennedy’s moneylines (I bet that when Javid was -400), because I simply thought the -350 price tag here is a joke. I remember when I saw it as the opening number like a month ago and I laughed because I expected to see -600 by the time it hit the UK…but at the time of writing that -350 is still available.
Kennedy Nzechukwu isn’t going to be champion, but he’s firmly established himself as a legitimate UFC level fighter that can comfortably compete amongst the 7-15 ranked fighters in the division. He’s massive, has good takedown defence, hits hard, and has decent enough minute winning ability.
He faces Ovince St Preux, who I think should have retired about five years ago. He’s 40 years old (facing a 31-year-old, I know some of you love the age discrepancy statistics), and has been knocked out in three of his last four losses. The only exception was a split decision win against Shogun Rua, a guy that was also well overdue retirement at the time.
In his last fight, OSP got flatlined by Philipe Lins in under 50 seconds. Lins hadn’t won a fight ITD before that since 2018 when he was juiced up in the PFL. He isn’t known as a hard hitter at all, he’s a decision winning wrestler.
Obviously OSP is most dangerous as a grappler, but considering Kennedy Nzechukwu has recently gotten the better of Devin Clark and Ion Cutelaba, I think it’s safe to say he’s up for the challenge of dispatching someone who wants to land takedowns on him.
I’ve got 3u on Kennedy Nzechukwu. It was originally supposed to be in a parlay with Billy Q, but his fight has been cancelled so now it's a single.
How I line this fight: Kennedy Nzechukwu -900 (90%), Ovince St Preux +900 (10%)
Bet or pass: 3u Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win (-350), 2u Nzechukwu & Charalampos to Win (-110)
Prop leans: Kennedy ITD, but I fear price will be long gone by the time props come out
Mike Davis v Natan Levy Mike Davis is lowkey one of the most disappointing stories in recent years. I think the guy had all the talent to be a top 15 fighter, but for some reason he just didn’t want to commit to his MMA career, and seems to be way more focused on other ventures outside of the cage than his career in it (dude is always on Instagram hyping up his twitch stream, but seldom posting about being in the gym). Perhaps all those months off dried up his funds, and he’s in need of a pay check?
He faces Natan Levy, who is kind of the opposite of Davis. Someone I have never really rated or expected good things from, but a guy who is respectfully plying his trade, staying active, and improving inside the Octagon.
This feels like the kind of situation you saw back in school, where there was that one kid that tried hard but only ever managed to get mid grades, vs another kid that coasted and never took it seriously but managed to pull good grades out of their ass seemingly every time.
But in terms of a serious breakdown, I think the version of Davis we have seen in the Octagon in recent years is a better striker and grappler than Levy, so should just coast to a win. The Israeli isn’t particularly powerful or show-stopping with his striking, he usually plays the evasive point scoring game (which very likely won’t work against Davis). He does his best work on the mat, but Beast Boy’s wrestling and grappling have always seemed to be at a decent enough level that I can’t really see that being the story of the fight either.
So this one should probably play out as a mild kind of fight, with Davis establishing himself as superior but Levy not getting embarrassed. However, the key word in that sentence is SHOULD, because Davis hasn’t performed since 2022 and I don’t think he’s trustworthy.
To assume that the Davis we get in this fight is the exact same guy from the tape would be foolish, so as much as it pains to pass up on what could be a pretty decent price, I’m not betting on Davis here. Don’t blame you if you choose to roll the dice though, but you should know by now that I’m quite risk averse and won’t force it where I don’t have to.
How I line this fight: Mike Davis -200 (67%), Natan Levy +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Pannie Kianzad v Macy Chiasson You know the matchmakers are struggling when they have to rebook the finale of TUF!
Pannie Kianzad is alright. She’s got pretty good hands for WMMA, but it’s still not good enough to separate herself from the rest of the unranked names. She can look great against the lower level, but eventually it turns into a step up and she struggles. Ketlen Vieira and Raquel Pennington are her most recent losses, to prove my point.
She also has a loss to Macy Chiasson on her record already, albeit from 2018. Chiasson was just 2-0 in her professional career back then, whilst Pannie was 10-3. It’s pretty shocking to say, but eight fights later and Kianzad is still arguably Chiasson’s best win, aside from Norma Dumont.
As Chiasson has evolved, she’s relied more on her grappling ability, landing 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. That ties in nicely against Kianzad, as that’s where she’s historically struggled (71% takedown defence is a bit of a skewed stat, it was still being exploited heavily by Vieira and Eubanks). It’s enough of a gap in skill that isn’t really present anywhere else in the contest, in my opinion.
So I expect this one to be a very competitive affair, and the potential grappling upside for Chiasson is pretty much the only thing I think that separates the two of them. Furthermore, Chiasson loses most of her fights via a finish, and Kianzad is a pretty unthreatening fighter, which makes this one seem a bit more comfortable for Macy compared to some of her previous opponents.
I think the -163 betting line I can currently see on Macy seems pretty accurate, as the advantages are there, but it’s nothing major that a win for Pannie would really surprise anyone. I’ve not really got any hot takes here, I’ve kind of just spent all these words explaining the matchmakers’ reasoning and saying I agree with it.
How I line this fight: Pannie Kianzad +163 (38%), Macy Chiasson -163 (62%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None, can’t even trust the trusty WMMA FGTD here.
Josh Culibao v Danny Silva Josh Culibao ain’t that good. He’s committed and he’s tough, but you need a lot more than that to be a good fighter in MMA. Those tools can be good enough to beat a certain calibre at the bottom of the division, but you’ll come unstuck eventually.
I don’t know anything about Danny Silva. He’s got an 8-1 record and hasn’t fought a single person of note. So I have no idea where he sits in the UFC divisional pecking order.
Not sure how anyone can be confident in this one, this fight is an opportunity to find out more about Danny Silva, not one to lose money on.
How I line this fight: I didn’t do tape
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Thiago Moises v Mitch Ramirez Late notice replacement for Thiago Moises, who goes from preparing to fight Brad Riddell, to fighting Mitch Ramirez. This one should simply be a squash match, where the well-rounded Moises gets to show off his great grappling and decent enough striking – whatever he fancies really. Moises had finally started showing some fight IQ and actually leaning on his high level grappling, instead of being a decision based fighter, which I was really enjoying seeing. The performance against Melq Costa specifically was refreshing to see. The most recent performance against BSD was obviously super disappointing, as I didn’t think we’d ever see someone steamroll Moises on the mat like that (even Dariush got shut down to basic closed guard striking for the most part). But to me that’s a testament to how good BSD really is. It’s probably his best performance to date (I wrote that sentence before the Poirier fight).
Ramirez on the other hand has fought bums, and all but two of his wins have come in under three minutes. Plenty of very obvious red flags on his side, in regards to competition and his ability to fight consistently across 15 minutes.
At the time of writing this, I haven’t seen a betting line, but I’m fully expecting Moises to be -600 at least. It would be justified, and if the books don’t go aggressive enough, I’ll probably bet a short price on Moises before the public forces it to that -600. I’m not afraid to pay a short price if the price has value.
How I line this fight: Thiago Moises -600 (86%), Mitch Ramirez +600 (14%)
Bet or pass: 5u Thiago Moises to Win (-400 or better)
Prop leans: Moises ITD also interesting
Ode Osbourne v Jafel Filho Filho’s a good example of the UFC’s current matchmaking model – you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours. He came in to be sacrificed to Mokaev (gave a very good account of himself I thought), so they rewarded him with Juancamilo Ronderos, who is atrocious. That guy pulled out, so they dipped into the bargain bin and pulled out a regional fella. Filho hits the R1 submission and O.M.G we have a prospect…Sarcasm but that’s what the matchmakers will be trying to peddle.
It's easy to have a short memory as a UFC fan though, so if you’re considering putting Filho in your parlays I encourage you to watch that Barez fight back on Fight Pass, it’s only three minutes. What you’ll see is that his striking needs real work. He’s jittery and doesn’t really plant his feet properly, there’s definitely some technique issues visible, and he relies on his chin way too much. He got tagged pretty damn hard and dropped twice with body shots, and if Barez hadn’t have gassed getting excited and blowing his load too early, I think Filho definitely loses that one. Obviously the grappling is where he really shines, but I don’t think we’ll see him cut through every opponent that quick. It was because the Spaniard was gassed, Barez actually won more minutes than Filho. He’s on the fade list.
Personally I don’t understand how you can have Ode Osbourne as the underdog here, purely on skill alone. Ode’s clearly had his chance to put wins together and actually show himself to be a force, but he keeps dropping the ball and now the UFC are trying to cash out. He did it against Kelleher in his debut, did it against Tyson Nam…his record has too much wear and tear to be put on display, basically. That’s probably by they were so happy to let him take the Almabaev fight most recently.
I will say, Ode is a strange one though. He’s athletic, he’s got power, he’s got submissions…he’s not actually got a significant weakness in any area but cardio, so he’s one of those guys that I actually struggle to clearly see losing, despite the record looking shit. Kind of like a Charles Johnson.
If I was lining this fight purely on skill I’d say Ode gets slight favouritism at -125. However, the unreliability as well as the bad cardio are key red flags here, especially considering Ode thrives better as a finisher and less as a technical fighter, and Filo looks like a tough motherfucker.
So this one is complicated. I see a bit of value on Osbourne but he’s not the kind of guy I’d be comfortable risking it on, so I’m opting to pass instead. If you want to bet on this fight, I’d recommend taking the underdog…but I’m comfortable passing.
How I line this fight: Ode Osbourne +100 (50%), Jafel Filho +100 (50%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Christian Rodriguez v Isaac Dulgarian The matchmakers absolutely hate C Rod, don’t they!? How can you go from Raul Rosas Jr, to Cameron Saaiman, to Isaac Dulgarian. These four names could well be in the top 5ers in a matter of years, and Rodriguez has had to run the gauntlet against them all. He’s 2-0 so far, and if he makes it three for three I think it’s time we started talking about him as a serious, serious prospect.
Isaac Dulgarian is one of those rare fighters whose reputation proceeds him. He’s 6-0 and already in the UFC, and aside from the debut win over Francis Marshall, his opponents’ combined record has been 12-8. Nothing at all to write home about, yet this guy’s seemingly really well known to a lot of hardcore MMA fans, and the fact that he’s currently a favourite against a man with the scalps of Raul Rosas Jr and Cameron Saaiman to his name shows how serious people are taking him.
Reason being, he comes from an extensive college wrestling background. We saw him use it to dominate Marshall, pinning him down and going to work with some great ground strikes until he forced his opponent to quit in the opening round. Dominant display, especially as a +150 underdog. Kudos to whoever was on that line, that’s one hell of a bet.
I went and re-read my breakdown for that fight, and I actually attempted to fade Dulgarian’s frantic R1 pace, thinking he might slow down and gas out after the crazy energy he brings to the opening round. He got the job done in the way that he needed to, so I lost my bet, but there are positive signs that the fade could still be on with that narrative, as Isaac still came hot out the gates there also.
I’m betting Christian Rodriguez here. I can’t necessarily justify it stylistically like I can with most bets, but I’ve got good vibes from backing Rodriguez as an underdog. At some point, the analysis has to go out the window and you have to acknowledge the experience and the unknowns. C-Rod has proven that he very well could be the next big thing at Flyweight…and we are getting the opportunity to bet him at + money against a 6-0 guy who hasn’t gotten out of round one.
There are so many “what ifs” for this fight, and they all conclude on doubt towards Isaac Dulgarian. What if he’s biting off way more than he can chew? What if he doesn’t have 15 minutes of cardio? What if he gets extended to R2 for the first time? What if he can’t land takedowns? These are all valid questions.
So I’m going to ask all those questions with my money. 2u on Christian Rodriguez to Win at +114, but I’m going to watch the line like a hawk and cash out if it trends the other way.
I bet C-Rod as a +200 dog against Raul Rosas, I’m a believer that he’s hella talented. So it’s up to Dulgarian to prove me wrong. If he does, colour me impressed…but I think long term it’s a good idea to be putting your money in spots like this. You could have done it with Jack Hermansson, you could have done it with Jairzinho Rozenstruik…perhaps you could do it with C-Rod.
How I line this fight: Honestly impossible to cap given how many unknowns there are with Dulgarian, but I don’t think you can conclude that C-Rod should be the dog
Bet or pass: 2u Christian Rodriguez to Win +115 or better)
Prop leans: None
Bryan Battle v Ange Loosa EDIT on Tuesday: I've had a change of heart with this one since listening to some other opinions and rewatching more tape. I've edited the breakdown accordingly.
I’m still trying to figure out how I feel about Ange Loosa, I think. Looked phenomenal in the first half of the AJ Fletcher fight, but suddenly gets cracked and he’s out there doing all sorts of stanky leg. He’s really physical for the division and, despite not knowing where he was, he was still stuffing AJ Fletcher’s takedowns with ease (and AJ ain’t a bad grappler).
Loosa just seems like a C+ level everything, and it really doesn’t surprise me that he’s had his fair share of losses. However, that’s not always a bad thing, because it allows him to lean on certain attributes that he can use against opponents with weaknesses. In the case of AJ Fletcher, it was athleticism, takedown defence and cardio. In the case of Rhys McKee, it was everything. Despite him clearly being the better and more well-rounded MMA fighter on both occasions, he got himself hurt and almost dropped the ball from cruise control on both occasions, showing great toughness to fight through both. He also got absolutely destroyed on the feet by JDM, but we can't really blame hm/
Bryan Battle’s a guy I’ve always liked – he’s got a great frame for the division, has finishing ability via KO or submission, and offensively he’s just very well-rounded. My only issues with him are his patient striking approach, and his seemingly sub par takedown defence. Sometimes Battle looks like a lanky Derrick Lewis with the way he stands still with his hands up, shifting weight from one foot to the other and just staring square at his opponent…but just like Lewis he’s shown immense one punch KO ability, so I can’t really knock it too much.
They have a common opponent in AJ Fletcher, who demonstrated in the opening five minutes against Battle that he can be beaten on the feet, by closing the distance, not respecting his power, and having the superior volume. These are all things I think Ange Loosa could achieve, given the way he fought against Rhys McKee. However, the difference there is that Rhys doesn't really have too much in terms of one punch KO power, which allowed Loosa the confidence to come forward so aggressively.
I worry that Loosa is at a disadvantage in terms of finishing ability and general reliability here, as his cardio is also clearly inferior to Battle. Given the significance of damage and knockdowns in scoring these days, I think Ange will struggle to win fights against a certain level of UFC ability, simply because he is so prone to getting hurt. Sometimes the lack of finishes a guy suffers can lead us to falsely credit their chin (Robocop comes to mind), but there is solid proof that Loosa is a liability on the feet...and I think Battle can be trusted to make the difference with his power.
So whilst I initially thought this was a pick'em, I've since decided Battle has a massive gamechanger in terms of power, and that Loosa is stylistically in a tricky fight where he will struggle to find a place to be comfortable in. Yes Battle's got bad takedown defence, but I see him as the better grappler of the two and trust him to get back to his feet. A gameplan like that likely gasses Loosa out, and opting to trade with the harder hitter likely sees him come unstuck also.
Therefore, I think Battle should be a steeper favourite than he currently is here, around -200. I bet him for 2u at -150 as a result.
How I line this fight: Bryan Battle +100 (50%), Ange Loosa +100 (50%)
Bet or pass: 2u Bryan Battle to Win (-150)
Prop leans: None
Cory McKenna v Jaqueline Amorim Jackie 1 round is back! Always find it interesting when she competes, given the fact she’s got this reputation for being a terrifying buzzsaw in the first five minutes, then completely falling apart. We actually saw her first successful venture outside of R1 in her last fight, but it was against Montserrat Ruiz who is atrocious and a literal warm body. The cardio narrative only works if you’re made to work hard, and Amorim definitely wasn’t. She styled on the Mexican for 14 whole minutes, even pulling guard and hitting a lovely sweep straight into full mount. Slick stuff.
She faces Cory McKenna, who is somewhat of a grappler in her own right. The little Welsh lady hasn’t fought in over a year, but we were starting to get a sense that she could well be a decent wrestler with the skills to confidently shut out a lot of the lower ranked women at Strawweight.
This will feel a bit like a familiar test for McKenna, who has already beaten the likes of Vanessa Demopoulos and Kay Hansen, who are two of the higher regarded BJJ players we’ve seen in WMMA in recent years. You can instantly see that Amorim is a cut above those two, obviously, but BJJ is a very limited skillset if your opponent is capable of dealing with it. We even saw that in the third round of Amorim’s win over Montserrat Ruiz. She pulled guard and lost most of the round, before hitting that sweep and Ruiz quit on herself.
If McKenna finds herself with top control (which I think it’s likely she does with her own wrestling ability and Amorim’s enthusiasm to pull guard) then I expect her to be able to shut down quite a few of the tricks that Amorim showed recently. Once those are off the table, Amorim’s going to look a bit feeble.
It’s still going to be a hairy first round for McKenna though, because a fresh Amorim is a very dangerous one, but I think this is one of the harder unranked matchups that Amorim could have been given to hit her already limited path to victory.
I saw the opportunity to bet McKenna at +100 here, and I took it for 2u. I know the dangers with Amorim and could even potentially try to hedge with her R1 prop, but I think McKenna can be trusted to fend off a pure BJJ threat, and the fight swings significantly in her favour if she makes it to the stool
How I line this fight: Cory McKenna -150 (60%), Jaqueline Amorim +150 (40%)
Bet or pass: 2u Cory McKenna to Win (+100)
Prop leans: Probably McKenna by Decision, but I’m not betting specifics when I can + on the ML
Live Betting Leans: Definitely look to live bet Cory if they get to the stool, especially if she’s been working Amorim hard. You’ll get a nice number for it.
Chad Anheliger v Charalampos Grigoriou Always been very keen to fade Chad Anheliger. He’s rubbish, massively undersized for the weight class, has bad grappling, and has a serious case of T-Rex arms. If he can’t get into boxing range and throw heat, he’s not got much upside at all. I didn’t expect his UFC career to amount to anything when he got signed originally, but he’s now on a two fight losing streak and he’s 37 years old.
Charalampos Grigoriou makes his UFC debut. He’s 8-3 which isn’t impressive, and the calibre of opponents is probably even less of a good look. He was a +160 underdog to Cameron Smotherman on the Contender Series. We saw his power, but that finish came so quick that there’s not much else you can take from it.
Usually I’d draw the line there, but the -200 price to fade Anheliger was too tempting so I dug a bit deeper. I liked what I saw from his grappling and top control against Crisostomo (who obviously is awful), which adds another wrinkle to his game, but I did also really like what I saw from his striking. He throws with decent volume, using good combinations and different angles that clearly are tricky to deal with for his opponents.
Unfortunately he’s not got a massive size advantage over Chad here, which is the most comfortable angle I would want to see when trying to fade him…but I think Charalampos is deserving of his -200 price tag here.
I don’t however think there’s enough meat on the bone to force a big bet here though, as much as I want to go hard fading Anheliger one last time. Grigoriou has only fought cans in his MMA career really, so you have to pump the breaks on any good footage you see. He is unproven at this level outside of a very quick finish on DWCS, so it’s not enough for me to trust him to swing the hammer. However, I do like what I see so far, so I will be playing him for 2u at -175.
And since writing all that, I've decided to put another 2u on him in a parlay with Nzechukwu at -110, so maybe it is a big play after all.
How I line this fight: Chad Anheliger +250 (29%), Charalampos Grigoriou -250 (71%)
Bet or pass: 2u Charalampos Grigoriou to Win (-175 or better), 1u Grigoriou & Nzechukwu Both to Win (-110)
Prop leans: None
Gerald Meerschaert v Bryan Barberena Pretty easy fight to write up here, all without doing tape. Gerald is incredibly flawed and is awful on the feet, but he’s awkward and a real threat in the grappling department so it leads a lot of guys to shit their pants and not fight him properly. They either dial down their output massively, or they swing for the fences with no set up (looking at you, Andre Petroski).
Bryan Barberena can throw hands and obviously hits pretty hard, but he’s frail in the twilight of his career and cannot defend a grappling threat to save his life.
Pick your poison, right? Does Barberena keep it standing and starch Gerald, or does GM3 show his crafty veteran savvy for the hundredth time against an opponent that should give him a path to victory on a platter.
Kind of a hard one to call but I think you should slightly lean towards Meerschaert. He’s still showing signs of being able to cope on the feet against some guys, whereas Bryan is completely incapable of grappling defence since his motorbike accident a few years ago (he used to have pretty admirable takedown defence like five years ago, you know!).
But, having said that, the idea of betting on a fighter as flawed and clunky as GM3 at a minus number is enough to make me want to register at a mental asylum, so I obviously won’t be doing it at all. You shouldn’t either.
Since writing that, GM3 has moved from -150 to -200, which I think is insane. That’s serious juice on Gerald. But I still am not that keen on playing Barberena. I'll keep it small and go 0.75u on the Moneyline at +230, as well as 0.25u on Barberena to Win & Under 2.5 Rounds at +500
How I line this fight: Gerald Meerschaert -125 (56%), Bryan Barberena +125 (44%)
Bet or pass: 0.75u Bryan Barberena to Win (+230), 0.25u Baberena to Win & Under 2.5 Rounds (+500)
Prop leans: Either GM3 SUB or Barberena KO, obviously
Josiane Nunes v Chelsea Chandler Nice to see Chelsea Chandler back. I’ve still got fond memories of betting 4u on Norma Dumont at -120 against her last time. Watching her run across the entire cage when she realised she had no hands was hilarious.
I said it then and I’ll say it again, she’s not good at anything. Her striking is poor, and her wrestling relies solely on physicality to bully her opponent. It worked against armbar-or-bust Julija Stoliarenko, but that’s not really saying much is it. She’s 33 years old too, and seems to have gone quiet on all social medias since she lost that Dumont fight.
So how does Josiane Nunes stack up against her? Well firstly she’s one of the more dangerous strikers in WMMA at the moment. She’s got power in her hands and has 7 KOs from 10 wins, which is insane for WMMA standards. She even landed two knockdowns in one of those decisions. Also, like Jessica Andrade, the queen of WMMA KOs…she’s massively undersized for the division.
She’s 5’2, whilst Chandler is 5’8. It’s not always a big issue, but Nunes has shown grappling deficiencies in her brief UFC career so far, against the very low level but physically superior Ramona Pascual. Ramona couldn’t stop herself from getting pieced up on the feet, but she did find three takedowns against Nunes, where we saw the Brazilian be a bit too keen to play guard. Something you never like to see unless you’re super good at BJJ. Nunes doesn’t even have a submission win.
So whilst I clown Chandler for not being very good, her grappling game compliments the size advantage she has, and could well be good enough to get her the win here. Of course, on the feet she’s going to be at a big disadvantage.
Overall I agree with this one being lined quite close, but I’d have expected Nunes to be a shorter favourite here, given the consistent demonstrations of power and the way fights are scored these days. Personally I’d have her about -175, as I can see the path to victory for Chandler. Given that I’m currently seeing -137, that’s only a 5% gap and only on the cusp of being considered value. As much as I love WMMA, I’m going to opt to pass on this occasion. I don’t mind a bet on Nunes though, if you’re happier for a bit more risk.
How I line this fight: Josiane Nunes -175 (64%), Chelsea Chandler +175 (36%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Bets 2u
Tai Tuivasa to Win & Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
3u
Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win (-400)
2u
Bryan Battle to Win (-150)
0.5u
Bryan Battle to Win ITD (+240)
5u
Thiago Moises to Win (-350)
2u
Christian Rodriguez to Win (+163)
0.75u
Bryan Barberena to Win (+230)
0.25u
Bryan Baberena ITD (+500)
2u
Charalampos Grigoriou to Win (-160)
2u
Kennedy Nzechukwu & Charalampos Grigoriou both to Win (-110)
2u
Cory McKenna to Win (+100)
0.5u
Parlay Pieces (+483)
Parlay Pieces: Bryan Battle, Kennedy Nzechukwu, Mike Davis, Charalampos Grigoriou, Thiago Moises
Dog of the Week: Christian Rodriguez
FUTURE BETS
5u
Billy Quarantillo to Win (-137) (changed the stake size. Not 10u anymore lol)
2u
Rose Namajunas to Win (-163)
1u
Cameron Saaiman to Win (+100) (I'll be adding 1u more but unsure what the line does)
4u
Alex Pereira to Win (-137)